Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/28/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
124 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL RESUME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT RESULTED IN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INLAND BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...ONSHORE
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PULLS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS THIS TROUGH IMPACT THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT INCREASES TO JUST
OVER +4.0 MB...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DIFFICULT LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE WRF BRINGS STRATUS IN AROUND 04Z FOR THE MONTEREY
BAY...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE SF BAY. HOWEVER...THE 15Z RUN OF
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT STRATUS WILL ACTUALLY RETREAT FROM THE
COAST. REGARDLESS...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CLOUDS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 04Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN POINT PINOS AND
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELLS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1014 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST AND 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND. COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TWO DRY
SYSTEMS DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER JUST
ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN WARMING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A GREAT
WEATHER DAY FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY TODAY. OVERNIGHT THE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT DESPITE THE 3.5 MB WESTERLY GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE, THE NORTHERLY FLOW WELL OVER 6 MB IS KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS WELL OFF THE COAST. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO RUNNING
QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENT TEMPS LEADING TO LOWER RH VALUES.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
PACIFIC THROUGH OUR CWA AND OVER INTO NEVADA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
TODAY AS A SYSTEM OFF THE BC COAST MOVES TO NEAR THE WASHINGTON
BORDER BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A MINOR DROP (AROUND
2C) AT 850 MB, SO HIGHS FOR MANY SPOTS WILL RUN JUST A BIT COOLER
TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MOSTLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID
70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS IN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES COULD RETURN BACK TO THE 90S TODAY.
THE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTH LEADING TO COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA WHILE THE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE INCREASES. IN FACT, SOME LOCATIONS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD DROP TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST AND MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHS WILL DROP A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES -- UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS
WOULD GIVE US A COOL START TO THE START OF JUNE.
NO SIGN OF ANY ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT INCREASES TO JUST
OVER +4.0 MB...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DIFFICULT LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE WRF BRINGS STRATUS IN AROUND 04Z FOR THE MONTEREY
BAY...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE SF BAY. HOWEVER...THE 15Z RUN OF
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT STRATUS WILL ACTUALLY RETREAT FROM THE
COAST. REGARDLESS...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CLOUDS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 04Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELLS WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM NOON
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
754 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND. THIS
FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THU PROVIDING DRY AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FRI INTO FRI EVENING. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SAT THEN A MODERATING TREND FOLLOWS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING RAPIDLY AS
THIS FRONT MOVED WEST. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...THE TEMPERATURE
DROP SHOULD NOT BE AS DRAMATIC.
27/22Z HRRR WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS FORECAST OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
NOT QUITE READY TO BUY OFF ON THAT YET. DID TWEAK POPS A BIT...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO BRING IT BACK
IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROVIDING A VERY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI. WHILE ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE U70S TO
M80S! THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR WHERE
DEW PTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS PA/NY AND NJ A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE
FORMED OVER PA. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z
GEFS KEEP THE GREATER INSTABILITY WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE EC
AND GEFS VERIFYING THE BEST AT 18Z. THESE DATASETS SUGGEST ONLY 800-
1200J/KG OF MUCAPE POSSIBLY BLEEDING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MA AND
CT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS SFC DEW PTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE 50S ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA...YIELDING HIGH
LCL...NOT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. HENCE WITH GREATER INSTABILITY WEST AND STRONGER SHEAR
EAST /OUT OF PHASE/ ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR ALBANY AT 4 PM MAY HOLD
TOGETHER OR BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING UPON ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER COORDINATING THESE THOUGHTS WITH SPC A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL NOT BE EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG
TSTM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF MA AND CT. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY NO MEANS A
WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY BUT COOL WEATHER.
FAIRLY COOL BY DAYBREAK WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE U40S FROM
NORTHERN CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THIS MARITIME
AIRMASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NE WIND OF 15-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S TO PERHAPS NEAR 60 IN THE CT RVR VLY. HOWEVER 2 METER TEMPS
FROM THE EC/NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT
GET OUT OF THE U40S TOMORROW! SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR LOW MAX TEMPS
WED. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH A
STIFF NORTHEAST WIND.
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXITS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY WEATHER THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
* SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRI INTO FRI EVENING
* COOL SHOWERY WEATHER SAT...THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM TROF AND CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE NEW ENG COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER A COLD
FRONT FRI WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD POOL
ALOFT SETTLES SOUTH INTO NEW ENG. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY MOVE THE TROF/CLOSED LOW EAST WITH A PIECE OF THE
RIDGE TRYING TO MOVE INTO NEW ENG SUN/MON...BUT WITH BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS COULD BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY SAT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS MIE LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE PRESENCE OF THIS ATYPICAL
COLD POOL WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL JET WILL BE TO THE WEST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...
IT APPEARS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY
SUNDAY..ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 27/12Z GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD DELAY
THIS PROCESS.
LOOKS WARMER MONDAY...BUT GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE FLOW. THE
27/12Z GFS IS NOW THE MOST ROBUST...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM THE
27/00Z RUNS. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY...BUT HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TSTMS WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/NY BORDER INTO THE
NYC AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IFR OVER EASTERN MA BECOMING
WIDESPREAD SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WED...IFR CIGS TO START THEN LIFTING TO MVFR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY AFTERNOON
WEATHER.
KBOS TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
TSTMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBDL TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LOWER CIGS AND IF TSTMS
IMPACT AIRSPACE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
ESPECIALLY ON TRENDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRI AS SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SAT.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. SEAS BUILD AS WELL ESP EASTERN
MA WATERS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG LIMIT VSBY 1-3
MILES.
WED...NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND POSSIBLY 30 KT NEAR
NANTUCKET. ROUGH SEAS AS WELL. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT IN THE AFTN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. SHOWERS AND FOG LIMIT VSBY 1 TO 3 MILES BUT
IMPROVING LATE.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE. LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS MAY RESULT IN EXTENSIONS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH FOR MAY 28 IS IN THE U60S TO M70S! THUS TEMPS WED
WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN NORMAL. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPS FOR 5/28/14. BEST CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING A RECORD
WILL BE AT WORCESTER MA /ORH/.
BOS...48...1906
ORH...48...2009
PVD...49...1906
BDL...50...1906
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ230>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAINING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS IN NY
WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART ENDED ACRS OUR AREA
FOR THE DAY. THE 3KM HRRR AND BOTH OUR LOCAL AND THE WFO BTV WRF
SHOW ONCE THESE MORNING SHOWERS END...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
FAR NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE AROUND 14 DEGREES C...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
REACHING LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS /MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN/. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...IT SHOULDN/T
FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE OUTDOORS AS IT OFTEN COULD BE FOR LATE MAY
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATER OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM AS AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK MILD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...OR MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
LATE IN THE DAY (OR EVEN EVENING). PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. THE WIND FLOW LOOKS NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BACKBUILDING CELLS...BUT TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SO FAR HAS
NOT PLACED ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO RAMP WITH
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED (MORE IF SUNSHINE IS GREATER THAN WE ARE
THINKING...WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE LIMITED). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RESPECTABLE...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6.0-6.5 KM/C RANGE.
ALSO THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE FORECASTED SOUNDING...ALBEIT WEAK. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DID NOT HAVE THIS CAPPING FEATURE
OBVIOUS.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAXING AROUND
30KTS...AGAIN RESPECTABLE BUT NOT "OFF THE CHARTS."
SO...WHILE WE ARE NOT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR EARLY THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WE AND SPC ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF IT AT THIS TIME TO
USE ENHANCED WORDING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT (HWO).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY AND COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND
80-85 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER
NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHATEVER FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIMP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THE PROBLEM IS BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST). THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE WIND TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD
HOLD LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST (COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL).
WHATEVER FALLS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE "SPITS" TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT
THAT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH SOMEWHERE
EITHER AROUND EASTERN NY OR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN
FRIDAY BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY.
ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS
IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HANDLING OF
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE COOLEST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTIES...NOT CHANGING CURRENT
FORECAST MUCH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUGGESTING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN BUT DRY...AS ANY POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND IN ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
MENTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...70S EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO OCCURS...IF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...COOLER AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW IS FURTHER EAST...THEN
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SFC
WINDS...AS WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS...ESP AT KALB/KPSF. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DURING TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A
S-SW DIRECTION AT 4-8 KTS. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WORKS TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH BKN CLOUDS OF 8-12 KFT
LIKELY. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATER IN THE AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY...BUT WILL MOVE ON
BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A BREEZE WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
10-15...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 MPH IN WIND PRONE PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION). RH
VALUES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT. (INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIGHT ACTUALLY LIMIT DEW FORMATION). AFTER A QUITE EVENING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THAT THREAT WILL
ESCALATE TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT AS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. AVERAGE
RAINFALL AVERAGES LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT AS
USUAL WITH CONVECTION...LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VERY LITTLE TO PERHAPS OVER AN INCH IN A FEW SELECT SPOTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE. RH VALUES WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
50 PERCENT MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
WATERSHEDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. AT THIS POINT...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING (PREVENT BACKBUILDING).
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE BUT NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAINING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS IN NY
WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART ENDED ACRS OUR AREA
FOR THE DAY. THE 3KM HRRR AND BOTH OUR LOCAL AND THE WFO BTV WRF
SHOW ONCE THESE MORNING SHOWERS END...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
FAR NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE AROUND 14 DEGREES C...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
REACHING LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS /MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN/. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...IT SHOULDN/T
FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE OUTDOORS AS IT OFTEN COULD BE FOR LATE MAY
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATER OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM AS AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK MILD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...OR MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
LATE IN THE DAY (OR EVEN EVENING). PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. THE WIND FLOW LOOKS NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BACKBUILDING CELLS...BUT TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SO FAR HAS
NOT PLACED ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO RAMP WITH
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED (MORE IF SUNSHINE IS GREATER THAN WE ARE
THINKING...WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE LIMITED). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RESPECTABLE...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6.0-6.5 KM/C RANGE.
ALSO THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE FORECASTED SOUNDING...ALBEIT WEAK. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DID NOT HAVE THIS CAPPING FEATURE
OBVIOUS.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAXING AROUND
30KTS...AGAIN RESPECTABLE BUT NOT "OFF THE CHARTS."
SO...WHILE WE ARE NOT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR EARLY THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WE AND SPC ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF IT AT THIS TIME TO
USE ENHANCED WORDING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT (HWO).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY AND COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND
80-85 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER
NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHATEVER FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIMP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THE PROBLEM IS BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST). THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE WIND TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD
HOLD LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST (COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL).
WHATEVER FALLS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE "SPITS" TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT
THAT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH SOMEWHERE
EITHER AROUND EASTERN NY OR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN
FRIDAY BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY.
ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS
IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HANDLING OF
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE COOLEST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTIES...NOT CHANGING CURRENT
FORECAST MUCH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUGGESTING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN BUT DRY...AS ANY POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND IN ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
MENTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...70S EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO OCCURS...IF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...COOLER AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW IS FURTHER EAST...THEN
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.
THERE ARE AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KALB...KGFL...
KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE RAIN UPSTREAM HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT AND HAS NOT LOWERED CONDITIONS BELOW VFR...SO INDICATING VCSH
SINCE THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EVEN IF SOME RAIN AFFECTS
THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AFTER 15Z AS
CEILINGS AROUND 8000-10000 FEET SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AFTER THAT.
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH LATER IN THE MORNING. IT COULD BE GUSTY...TO NEAR 20
KT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT
EVERYWHERE AND BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY...BUT WILL MOVE ON
BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A BREEZE WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
10-15...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 MPH IN WIND PRONE PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION). RH
VALUES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT. (INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIGHT ACTUALLY LIMIT DEW FORMATION). AFTER A QUITE EVENING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THAT THREAT WILL
ESCALATE TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT AS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. AVERAGE
RAINFALL AVERAGES LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT AS
USUAL WITH CONVECTION...LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VERY LITTLE TO PERHAPS OVER AN INCH IN A FEW SELECT SPOTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE. RH VALUES WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
50 PERCENT MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
WATERSHEDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. AT THIS POINT...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING (PREVENT BACKBUILDING).
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE BUT NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAINING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS THEY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR AND BOTH OUR LOCAL AND THE WFO BTV WRF SHOW
ONCE THESE MORNING SHOWERS END...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
FAR NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
BY THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL BE BREAKING UP AND MIXING OUT...AND
SKIES LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AROUND 14 DEGREES C...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 50S...IT SHOULDN/T FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE OUTDOORS AS IT COULD
BE FOR LATE MAY DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATER OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM AS AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK MILD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...OR MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
LATE IN THE DAY (OR EVEN EVENING). PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. THE WIND FLOW LOOKS NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BACKBUILDING CELLS...BUT TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SO FAR HAS
NOT PLACED ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO RAMP WITH
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED (MORE IF SUNSHINE IS GREATER THAN WE ARE
THINKING...WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE LIMITED). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RESPECTABLE...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6.0-6.5 KM/C RANGE.
ALSO THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE FORECASTED SOUNDING...ALBEIT WEAK. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DID NOT HAVE THIS CAPPING FEATURE
OBVIOUS.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAXING AROUND
30KTS...AGAIN RESPECTABLE BUT NOT "OFF THE CHARTS."
SO...WHILE WE ARE NOT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR EARLY THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WE AND SPC ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF IT AT THIS TIME TO
USE ENHANCED WORDING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT (HWO).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY AND COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND
80-85 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER
NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHATEVER FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIMP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THE PROBLEM IS BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST). THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE WIND TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD
HOLD LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST (COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL).
WHATEVER FALLS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE "SPITS" TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT
THAT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH SOMEWHERE
EITHER AROUND EASTERN NY OR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN
FRIDAY BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY.
ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS
IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HANDLING OF
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE COOLEST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTIES...NOT CHANGING CURRENT
FORECAST MUCH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUGGESTING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN BUT DRY...AS ANY POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND IN ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
MENTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...70S EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO OCCURS...IF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...COOLER AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW IS FURTHER EAST...THEN
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.
THERE ARE AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KALB...KGFL...
KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE RAIN UPSTREAM HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT AND HAS NOT LOWERED CONDITIONS BELOW VFR...SO INDICATING VCSH
SINCE THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EVEN IF SOME RAIN AFFECTS
THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AFTER 15Z AS
CEILINGS AROUND 8000-10000 FEET SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AFTER THAT.
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH LATER IN THE MORNING. IT COULD BE GUSTY...TO NEAR 20
KT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT
EVERYWHERE AND BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY...BUT WILL MOVE ON
BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A BREEZE WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
10-15...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 MPH IN WIND PRONE PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION). RH
VALUES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT. (INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIGHT ACTUALLY LIMIT DEW FORMATION). AFTER A QUITE EVENING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THAT THREAT WILL
ESCALATE TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT AS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. AVERAGE
RAINFALL AVERAGES LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT AS
USUAL WITH CONVECTION...LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VERY LITTLE TO PERHAPS OVER AN INCH IN A FEW SELECT SPOTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE. RH VALUES WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
50 PERCENT MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
WATERSHEDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. AT THIS POINT...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING (PREVENT BACKBUILDING).
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE BUT NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
915 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS MORNING...THEN DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A
RAPID END TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH FROM EAST TO WEST...ALONG WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL THEN
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
BE GONE BY LATE MORNING. HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THIS VERY WELL
AND INDICATES OTHER SHOWERS DROPPING SE FROM NORTHERN NY WILL
DIMINISH AS THEY REACH OUR AREA.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE
FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SW NH AND W MA DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT EXPECT TO SEE BREAKS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING W FLOW GETS UNDERWAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY WITH 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
AREA EXCEPT 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
IN BRINGING A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE MAINE COAST AND GULF
OF MAINE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT THE W-SW WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAPE ANN
COAST AND OUTER TIP OF CAPE COD BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. SOME WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO S CENTRAL NH/NE MA AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAPID DROP IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY BEHIND A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY
* A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS ON WED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* NEXT FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT/FRI
* UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR US NEXT WEEKEND
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPS...SINCE
FRONT BEING A FEW HOURS SLOWER/FASTER THAN PROJECTED WILL MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT HIGHS SHOULD EXCEED 80
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO RHODE ISLAND...WHILE THE
EASTERN MA COAST WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S WITH A GUSTY
NORTHEAST WIND! TEMPS WILL THEN CRASH IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY
EVENING.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE.
HOWEVER...WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS GIVEN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TUE
NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...BUT AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO
BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO PERHAPS
NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THAT
IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THIS TIME RANGE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST. THIS MAY BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH SOME
SHOWERS ON SAT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME BY SUNDAY...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN STILL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LAST OF SHOWERS EXITS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS BY 15Z BUT CONDITIONS
REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AOA 070. VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE GRADUALLY ERODE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO INCREASING W/SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30KT.
VFR TONIGHT...BUT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS NE
MA/S NH IN ASSOCIATION WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/SW FLOW.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START TUESDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LATER TUE INTO WED. THIS A RESULT
OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BAYS AND
HARBORS. SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...W WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
MAY REACH 20 KT. BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TO CAPE ANN AND OUTER CAPE COD.
WIND SHIFTS TO N-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FOR LATE MAY MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS NOT SHOWING IT...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALL WATERS.
ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD
PERIOD AND THEIR ALREADY IN AFFECT FOR TODAY WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT HANDLE THAT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES...
.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE A LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY ONSHORE LOW LVL WIND FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. THE DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR BY MID AFTERNOON GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION AND THEN PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM
1.3 TO 1.5 ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND COOL MID LVL TEMPS TO 12 C AT XMR
AND -11 AT TBW. SHORT RANGE FCST MODELS SHOW THE MID LVL COLD POOL
TO MOVE OUT OVER THE ATLC IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 1 DEG OF MID
LVL WARMING. ONE ATLC COASTAL CONVERGENCE BAND INTO SRN BREVARD
COUNTY WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR STORM
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NUDGE POPS TO ~30 PCT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
LAKE COUNTY WHERE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A BIT MORE COVERAGE BEFORE
ACTIVITY PUSHES WESTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
COASTAL AREAS TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AN ONSHORE WIND...AND SMALL SWELL ALONG WITH FAVORABLE TIDAL EFFECTS
WITH THE NEW MOON WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VOLUSIA COUNTY LIFEGUARDS REPORTED OVER 85 RESCUES YESTERDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
INITIAL CUMULUS BASES BELOW 3 KFT SHOULD ELEVATE BY 16Z WITH MAINLY
VFR WEATHER FOR TERMINALS FROM 16Z-18Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS 17Z-19Z SHOULD PUSH TWD KLEE VCNTY BY
19Z-21Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KLEE...PROBS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
KMCO/KSFB.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE. CHOPPY SEAS THRU
MIDDAY WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC...INCREASING TO 9-10SEC TONIGHT.
ISOLD SHRA WILL MOVE CLOSE TO SEBASTIAN INLET INTO MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION TO THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS IN PART A RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE CLOSED
LOW FEATURE EJECTS SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BROUGHT A
COOLER POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ALLOWED THE STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP
FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY TO BECOME RATHER
VIGOROUS IN NATURE...AND HELPED TO SUPPORT THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
HAIL. IT IS THIS EARLY PART OF THE SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORM SEASON
WHEN THE CHANCES FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL ARE HIGHEST. THE
FURTHER WE GET INTO THE SUMMER SEASON...ESPECIALLY MID JULY AND
ONWARD...WE SEE OUR PEAK IN STORM COVERAGE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL DECREASES AS THE OVERALL COLUMN WARMS AND MOISTENS.
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE PASSED BY...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION AND WILL SEE SMALL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
TERMS OF VERIFYING THE COLUMN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ABOVE OUR
HEADS...THE 26/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE IS NOT OF MUCH USE...AS A
CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPED OVERHEAD SHORTLY AFTER BALLOON RELEASE.
THE PATH OF THE BALLOON THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE CELL MADE THE
MEASUREMENTS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERE.
THE SOUNDING FROM JACKSONVILLE AND MIAMI ARE LIKELY A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE LOOK AT THE COLUMN ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE 26/12Z
SOUNDING RELEASE SHOULD LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT.
AT THE SURFACE...DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACEMENT IS PROVIDING A LIGHT
E-ESE SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE
TO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WHOLE PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF...HOWEVER
FOR FACTORS DISCUSSED BELOW...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING STORM COVERAGE OR
GENERAL INTENSITY TO BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WARM
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS WILL RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND REACH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
INLAND AND 80S AT THE BEACHES. TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN AROUND NOON AND 1PM. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL FIGHT TO MOVE INLAND AGAINST THE
PREVAILING E-ESE SYNOPTIC FLOW. WINDS JUST ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO STOP IN INLAND PENETRATION...BUT ARE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW IT. THEREFORE LOOKING FOR THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
TO REACH AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR OR SO...BEFORE STALLING EARLY IN
THE EVENING. THE FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COUPLE OF THINGS
ARE DIFFERENT THOUGH TODAY FROM SUNDAY. FIRST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
(600-400MB) ARE ON AVERAGE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE MUCH...BUT IT CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD TO
THE CAPE ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE COOLER THE AIR
IS ALOFT THE MORE THE PARCELS FROM BELOW WANT TO RISE. SO...THIS
WARMER AIR WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE/SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.
ALSO...THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER
TEMPS) WILL ADD SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION TO THE MIX...ALSO MAKE
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS LESS FAVORABLE.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE ADVERTISING A 30-35% COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND
INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR....AND THEN ONLY A 20% COVERAGE WELL INLAND
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE SEA BREEZE. IT IS ALWAYS
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
COMPLETELY HOSTILE...HOWEVER...THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP "IN CHECK" TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET...AND SET UP ANOTHER WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY NIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...WITH
NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST PERHAPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. EVERYONE HAVE A FUN AND SAFE
MEMORIAL DAY!
&&
.MID TERM (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUMP UP A
WEAK U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY
WHILE ALSO HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS INDICATES POCKET OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
THE U/L LOW STALLS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GRADUALLY
FILLS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL INDUCE STRONG RIDGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS THURSDAY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA FRIDAY AND HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED HOLDING STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO
THIS SOLUTION ALSO. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE DUE TO THIS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PERSISTING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH ENHANCED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG EXIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVRF VIS AT EITHER KLAL OR
KPGD TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS AROUND DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AND THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE
POSITION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM REACHING
CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE SEA-BREEZE WILL STALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST...MAKING WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
HIGHLY VARIABLE EACH AFTERNOON. SPOT FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
DECISION MAKING SUPPORT FOR ANY FIRES ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 74 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
FMY 93 73 91 72 / 20 20 30 10
GIF 92 71 92 71 / 20 10 30 10
SRQ 89 72 87 72 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 93 68 90 67 / 30 20 30 20
SPG 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
931 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION RIDING OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS EASTERN AL IS
APPROACHING THE STATE LINE. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
STORMS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO
CONTINUE.
HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE SE. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEHAVING LARGELY AS EXPECTED
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF STRATUS DECK
OVER WEST GEORGIA. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY POTENTIAL FOR
RECOVERY OVER WEST GEORGIA AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM COULD
LEAD TO A RESURGENCE IN CAPE VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE FAVORED WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS THE MOST PLENTIFUL.
ONCE STORMS DIE OFF LATE THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WRT THE STRATUS DECKS FORMING AND THIS ROUND
OF MODELS SHOWS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL AS WELL. KEPT SKY GRIDS
HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE BUT STOPPED SHORT OF INCLUDING
LOW OVERCAST FOR NOW.
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF OF STRATUS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED. IF STRATUS IS UNABLE TO
FORM...WEST GA WILL BE FAVORED FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST CREATES SLIGHT DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM ATHENS TO MACON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. JUST CANT RID OURSELVES OF THE MARGINALLY
LARGE LAPSE RATES OR THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO STRONG STORMS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEESE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THUS CURRENT
FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH...THE
COMBINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH MAY
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH FEATURES OF LONG
TERM. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND BROAD MOISTURE FIELD WILL SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS OVERNIGHT AS
DISTINGUISHING LOCATIONS OF HIGHER OR LOWER CHANCES IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE SINCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ON WHERE OLD OUTFLOWS OR OTHER BOUNDARIES END UP FROM
PREVIOUS EVENING ACTIVITY...THEN BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN AFTER
ACTION GETS GOING. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EACH DAY WITH LOW END MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CAN EXPECT SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG INTENSITIES AND A FEW COULD
BE SEVERE.
AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BEGIN TAKING OVER BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE SFC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY SERVE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECREASED SOME POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND STILL LOOKING A BIT TOO HIGH FOR LATE
WEEK MAX VALUES GIVEN CLOUD COVERAGE SO BUMPED DOWN A BIT.
BAKER
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVEN`T REALLY HANDED THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AL WELL...BUT THINK THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT NEARS THE STATE LINE. MUCH THE SAME
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVENING CONVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 88 64 90 / 30 30 30 40
ATLANTA 69 85 68 88 / 40 30 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 80 58 84 / 30 30 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 65 85 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
COLUMBUS 69 86 67 89 / 70 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 66 85 66 87 / 30 30 30 40
MACON 67 87 64 89 / 50 40 40 40
ROME 65 84 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 88 / 40 40 30 40
VIDALIA 69 89 70 90 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEHAVING LARGELY AS EXPECTED
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF STRATUS DECK
OVER WEST GEORGIA. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY POTENTIAL FOR
RECOVERY OVER WEST GEORGIA AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM COULD
LEAD TO A RESURGENCE IN CAPE VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE FAVORED WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS THE MOST PLENTIFUL.
ONCE STORMS DIE OFF LATE THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WRT THE STRATUS DECKS FORMING AND THIS ROUND
OF MODELS SHOWS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL AS WELL. KEPT SKY GRIDS
HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE BUT STOPPED SHORT OF INCLUDING
LOW OVERCAST FOR NOW.
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF OF STRATUS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED. IF STRATUS IS UNABLE TO
FORM...WEST GA WILL BE FAVORED FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST CREATES SLIGHT DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM ATHENS TO MACON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. JUST CANT RID OURSELVES OF THE MARGINALLY
LARGE LAPSE RATES OR THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO STRONG STORMS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEESE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THUS CURRENT
FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH...THE
COMBINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH MAY
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH FEATURES OF LONG
TERM. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND BROAD MOISTURE FIELD WILL SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS OVERNIGHT AS
DISTINGUISHING LOCATIONS OF HIGHER OR LOWER CHANCES IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE SINCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ON WHERE OLD OUTFLOWS OR OTHER BOUNDARIES END UP FROM
PREVIOUS EVENING ACTIVITY...THEN BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN AFTER
ACTION GETS GOING. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EACH DAY WITH LOW END MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CAN EXPECT SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG INTENSITIES AND A FEW COULD
BE SEVERE.
AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BEGIN TAKING OVER BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE SFC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY SERVE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECREASED SOME POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND STILL LOOKING A BIT TOO HIGH FOR LATE
WEEK MAX VALUES GIVEN CLOUD COVERAGE SO BUMPED DOWN A BIT.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVEN`T REALLY HANDED THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AL WELL...BUT THINK THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT NEARS THE STATE LINE. MUCH THE SAME
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVENING CONVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 88 64 90 / 30 30 30 40
ATLANTA 69 85 68 88 / 30 30 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 80 58 84 / 30 30 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 65 85 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
COLUMBUS 69 86 67 89 / 30 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 66 85 66 87 / 30 30 30 40
MACON 67 87 64 89 / 40 40 40 40
ROME 65 84 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
VIDALIA 69 89 70 90 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
OFFICES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
31
/ISSUED 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH INCREASED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON TAP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A BROAD ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
DYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE RATHER STAGNANT AND MARKED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. HAVE UPPED THE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BASED ON THE
PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF TROUGH. HAVE PEGGED
THURSDAY AS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
RESULTANT WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.
GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS MAINLY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS.
BAKER
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
THERE MAY BE AREAS OF MVFR 09Z-14Z DUE TO SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECTING VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED...SO DIURNAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER TO THE
EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z TODAY.
ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 86 67 88 / 30 40 30 40
ATLANTA 67 87 69 86 / 30 30 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 59 83 61 82 / 30 30 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 88 64 87 / 30 30 30 30
COLUMBUS 68 91 69 89 / 20 20 20 20
GAINESVILLE 65 85 67 86 / 30 40 30 30
MACON 66 88 67 89 / 20 40 30 30
ROME 62 87 64 88 / 30 30 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 88 65 87 / 20 30 30 30
VIDALIA 68 88 70 89 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
522 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
430 PM CDT
AREAS OF PULSY SUMMERTIME-TYPE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL WITH ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SLIGHT UNDULATING IN
EXACT AREAS AND COVERAGE BUT IN GENERAL STAYING NEAR THE SAME
THROUGH 7-8 PM OR SO. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STORM CORES
ASCENDING AND DESCENDING QUICKLY...WITH CORE HEIGHTS REMAINING
BELOW SEVERE HAIL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER
MANY OF THESE STORMS DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND CLOUD BASE OBSERVATIONS ADAPTED INTO RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS AND A SMALL MICROBURST POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
245 PM CDT
A TRANSITION TO LESS SETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POISED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RECENTLY BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOVELY WEATHER IS NOW POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ROUGHLY
FOUR...RIDING OVER THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CHANNEL...WITH THE FIRST ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS MATCH SATELLITE DATA IN SHOWING THE FOURTH IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THIS WOULD REACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN BETWEEN...WILL
PLAN TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TWO INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNFOCUSED WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRAP THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT POOLS ALONG A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE LAKE AND TOWARD THE WI LINE...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OTHER
EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY FRIDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
FURTHER BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA WITH LOCALLY VRB/GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OVER WESTERN IL AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING ACROSS WI...EASTERN IA...AND
WESTERN IL. EXPECTING SCATTERED TS COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN IL AND
NW INDIANA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. TS DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE FEATURES
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE THE
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS. IF THE SHOWERS DO OCCUR ONLY NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES MVFR CIGS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE...AND MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...INCLUDED HIGH END MVFR CIGS. SOME
GUIDANCE GOES AS LOW AS IFR CIGS...BUT FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
CIGS OF 2000-2500 FT RIGHT NOW.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN MEDIUM IN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE
CONVECTION GETS GOING. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TOMORROW EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT AIRPORTS...BUT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCTD TSRA AROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THEY WILL BE...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
158 PM CDT
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE
COVERAGING EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO PRODUCE A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
RESULT WILL BE NOT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST WITH VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR POISED TO SLIDE OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THEN A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...AND BRING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...WITH WINDS FINALLY TURNING NORTHWEST/NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTNERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG. THEN THRU THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK
WINDS REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WAVES TO GROW LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE GRADIENT IS ABLE TO INCREASE...WAVES WOULD LIKELY
BUILD HIGHER WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
431 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
430 PM CDT
AREAS OF PULSY SUMMERTIME-TYPE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL WITH ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SLIGHT UNDULATING IN
EXACT AREAS AND COVERAGE BUT IN GENERAL STAYING NEAR THE SAME
THROUGH 7-8 PM OR SO. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STORM CORES
ASCENDING AND DESCENDING QUICKLY...WITH CORE HEIGHTS REMAINING
BELOW SEVERE HAIL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER
MANY OF THESE STORMS DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND CLOUD BASE OBSERVATIONS ADAPTED INTO RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS AND A SMALL MICROBURST POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
245 PM CDT
A TRANSITION TO LESS SETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POISED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RECENTLY BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOVELY WEATHER IS NOW POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ROUGHLY
FOUR...RIDING OVER THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CHANNEL...WITH THE FIRST ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS MATCH SATELLITE DATA IN SHOWING THE FOURTH IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THIS WOULD REACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN BETWEEN...WILL
PLAN TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TWO INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNFOCUSED WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRAP THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT POOLS ALONG A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE LAKE AND TOWARD THE WI LINE...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OTHER
EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY FRIDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
FURTHER BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OVER WESTERN IL AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING ACROSS WI...EASTERN IA...AND
WESTERN IL. EXPECTING SCATTERED TS COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN IL AND
NW INDIANA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. TS DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE FEATURES
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE THE
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS. IF THE SHOWERS DO OCCUR ONLY NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES MVFR CIGS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE...AND MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...INCLUDED HIGH END MVFR CIGS. SOME
GUIDANCE GOES AS LOW AS IFR CIGS...BUT FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
CIGS OF 2000-2500 FT RIGHT NOW.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN MEDIUM IN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE
CONVECTION GETS GOING. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TOMORROW EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TODAY AND TOMORROW...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THEY WILL BE...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
158 PM CDT
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE
COVERAGING EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO PRODUCE A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
RESULT WILL BE NOT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST WITH VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR POISED TO SLIDE OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THEN A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...AND BRING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...WITH WINDS FINALLY TURNING NORTHWEST/NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTNERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG. THEN THRU THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK
WINDS REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WAVES TO GROW LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE GRADIENT IS ABLE TO INCREASE...WAVES WOULD LIKELY
BUILD HIGHER WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE THIS
EVENING WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXPANSIVE
RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. DESPITE THIS
FACT...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/CVA ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE WILL HELP NUDGE THIS COLD
FRONT SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF. A COMPARISON OF THE 12Z KILX AND KDTX SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATES
THIS ONGOING MOISTURE SURGE. LOCAL PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 1.75 INCHES BY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER A SLOW START THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FINALLY SURGED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OUR
AREA. LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FINALLY NOSING INTO OUR CWA DESPITE PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE PROBLEM HERE REMAINS A LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT/TRIGGERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL DEPEND ON FINER
SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR GENERATES SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 22Z BUT SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER 00Z WHEN WHATEVER IS LEFT OF CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS FINALLY WASHES INTO OUR CWA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES US THOUGH. WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER END CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. IN VERY SUMMER-LIKE FASHION...EXPECT "POPCORN"
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LOW SEVERE RISK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT/LIMITED SHEAR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER.
SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PREVENT ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW HOWEVER. MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LITTLE
TO NO CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LOW...GENERALLY 1000
J/KG OR LESS...AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER RISK
IS THEREFORE LOW BUT ONCE AGAIN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING
AND TRAINING STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO MOVG THROUGH TOP OF WRN GRTLKS RIDGE THIS AFTN
EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD TO THE ERN GRTLKS BY TUE EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC
CDFNT TRAILING WSW THROUGH MN WILL BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA TUE NGT... THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH WED NGT. SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. INITIALLY WK DRY AIR PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION
PSBL EVEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL IN/OH. VERY WK FLOW/MOIST
AIRMASS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PSBL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTN/EVE WHEN
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED.
FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL
CONUS/CANADA AGAIN THU-FRI AS WEST COAST TROF DEEPENS. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... BUT STILL APPEARS IT
MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH TSTMS AND A FROPA IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE... WITH FROPA LOWERING TEMPS BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED TO AROUND 60F ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC TRIGGER
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED GIVEN LACK OF
SHEAR ALOFT. THIS MAKES NAILING DOWN AN EXACT TIMEFRAME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS DIFFICULT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY ONCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE CLEARER. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW WITH INCREASED COVERAGE DUE TO APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST ISSUES ARE ENDING PRECIPITATION TIMING FROM DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN STARTING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER SOUTH OF INDIANA BUT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY. GFS AND EURO
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH RAIN ENDING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WHILE CANADIAN
LINGERS INTO DAYTIME FRIDAY. WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCE IN SOUHWEST
COUNTIES FRIDAY MORN THEN DRY EVERYWHERE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORN.
GFS DRIVES FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR INTO GULF STATES WHILE
EURO DRIVES DRY AIR TO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY. EURO
FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
IN BY SUNDAY EVENING DRAWING MOISTURE BACK MORE QUICKLY AND
PROVIDING MEANS FOR LIFT AND STORMS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. GFS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT DAY LATER WITH THIS THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS LOW POPS SUNDAY ALREADY SO WILL KEEP FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER TO MATCH BETTER WITH WARMER MEX AND HPC NUMBERS WHILE DROPPED
BLENDED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR DUE IN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEMED
REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CIRRUS HAS SLOWED CUMULUS INITIATION FOR THE MOMENT BUT THESE
SHOULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL IN MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. MINOR TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NE ACROSS MISSOURI IS
AIDING THIS CONVECTION. SAME FEATURE LIFTING TOWARDS NW INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHWOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM 262000Z-270300Z BEFORE AIR STABILIZES.
SHOULD TAFS SITES SEE RAIN THEY COULD ALSO DEVELOP MVFR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY BUT RAIN UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS ADDING FOG.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER SORT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 271800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POISED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLIMO BIAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CIRRUS HAS SLOWED CUMULUS INITIATION FOR THE MOMENT BUT THESE
SHOULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL IN MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. MINOR TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NE ACROSS MISSOURI IS
AIDING THIS CONVECTION. SAME FEATURE LIFTING TOWARDS NW INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHWOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM 262000Z-270300Z BEFORE AIR STABILIZES.
SHOULD TAFS SITES SEE RAIN THEY COULD ALSO DEVELOP MVFR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY BUT RAIN UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS ADDING FOG.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER SORT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 271800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POISED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLIMO BIAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 261200Z KIND TAF/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BRING WINDS TO SSW EARLIER THAN FORECAST
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST OF VFR WITH VICINITY THUNDER LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL DECK AT
7-8KFT HAD DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS DECK WILL MIX OUT WITH CU GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET.
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS WELL BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A
VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING FROM 20Z THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 02Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
NEAR 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POISED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLIMO BIAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL DECK AT
7-8KFT HAD DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS DECK WILL MIX OUT WITH CU GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET.
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS WELL BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A
VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING FROM 20Z THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 02Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
NEAR 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISO
STORMS HAVE ENDED WITH LACK OF HEATING. A FEW LINGERING AND
DIMINISHING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END SOON. COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
SD AND WESTERN MN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR SHOWED
A LINGERING SHOWER FAR NW IA THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF COLD POOL CAN HOLD THEM TOGETHER LONGER. /REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP TRENDS INTO THE NIGHT. PARENT WAVE
OF MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT ALONG
THE RED RIVER WHILE SEPARATE WEAKER WAVE INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER
ALONG THE UPPER MS VALLEY. TWO CURRENT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE
SUBTLELY FORCED BUT APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY FORCING
ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE SW-NE WEAK FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH.
AIRMASS IS RATHER HOMOGENEOUS WITH ONLY WEAK DRYING BEHIND WIND
SHIFT.
SHORT WAVE SHOULD DRIFT DOWN THE IMMEDIATE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AND SOME POPS...ESPECIALLY
EAST...WHICH SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF INSOLATION. FARTHER SOUTH HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HOPWRF ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL
RECENTLY...SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR EXIT THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
FREEZING LEVELS HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY VS YESTERDAY SO
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES SOMEWHAT LATER THIS
EVENING AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE WITH LOWERING LCLS...AND PWS
BEGIN TO POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDOW FOR THIS
TO BE REALIZED WILL BE SMALL HOWEVER WITH COINCIDENT LOSS OF
HEATING.
FUNNEL CLOUD ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO PEAK
HEATING MAX WITH 0-3KM CAPES 150 J/KG OR MORE AND NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER 2-3 SOUTH. WEAK SURFACE VORTICITY HAS LIKELY
PRECLUDED ANY REPORTS AS OF YET BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY BE PREVALENT IN THIS LOW 0-6KM SHEAR
SITUATION...FOR ISOLATED VORTICITY GENERATION IN NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN A BIT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT ALONG WITH IT...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US...WILL AMPLIFY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SLIDING NORTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THETA-E RIDGING BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. THEREFORE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CREEP BACK
INTO THE CWA. FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US...SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF.
GFS/EC HAVE A SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AREA BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PUT THE DMX CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA AND A DRY LINE FEATURE SURGES THROUGH AS
WELL. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BACK
TO THE CWA AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASE TOWARD THE UPPER TEENS BY THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT THE TREND OF NEAR AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE LINGERING ISO RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THEM WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR KDSM AND KOTM. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
CEASES...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. UPPER LOW
STILL IN VICINITY FOR WED...SO AFT 15-16Z AGAIN EXPECT SOME
BUILDING CU AND ISO CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS EAST FOR KALO AND
KOTM THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ~23Z. WINDS NOT AN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD OTHER THAN NEAR ISO THUNDER. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM BR AND
WILL KEEP IN FCST FOR NOW FROM AFT 07-09 THROUGH 12-14Z./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
353 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS WITH TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY. A COUPLE IMPULSES ARE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH KANSAS AND THESE
CAN BE SEEN WITH MODEST LOWERING IN PV 1.5 PRESSURE FIELD TO AROUND
350 MB. EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN OVERALL DECREASING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK GUST FRONT INDUCED
CONVECTION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING A BIT MORE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PV ANOMALIES FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY THETA-E
ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WELL. EXPECT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
TO PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHWEST AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH
LESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. PWATS TODAY STILL HOVER NEAR 1.5 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 10 KFT. THIS IN ADDITION TO WEAK FLOW
WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE OTHER AREAS GET LITTLE
TO NO ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY. ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY...SHOULD HAVE HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS IMPACTED WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD...CONTINUING TO
INFLUENCE WEATHER FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AND ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS IOWA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW...AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING NORTH OF LOW...STILL ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SCATTERED
NATURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS A WEAK BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND HAVE BROUGHT POPS FURTHER SOUTH..ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. GIVEN GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES OVER AN
INCH...WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
DECREASES LATE TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN LOW SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTH DIMINISHES.
AS SYSTEMS PUSH EAST...RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED FOR END OF WEEK. MODELS DO
ATTEMPT TO LIFT SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY...BEFORE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWING THROUGH RIDGE FOR WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. WAA IN THE WEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE EAST WHILE NEW AREA OF
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING INTO FAR WEST. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE KDSM AND KOTM BY 11-12Z. OTHERWISE
VCSH AND PATCHY BR WILL BE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH 12Z. AFT 14Z AGAIN
LOOKING FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR THUNDER TO DEVELOP INTO THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTH
INTO IOWA FROM MISSOURI. TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION...SO WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HAVE
GONE VC FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO REFINE TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR NEXT
PACKAGE. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AFT 08-09Z AS BR
BEGINS TO DEVELOP./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING...BUT EXPANDING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT
HIGHER POPS AND EXPANDED A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE EVENING. /REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN INTO TONIGHT. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH CUTOFF LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER NM/CO AND IA IN DEEP BUT WEAK SLY/SWLY FLOW. THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TOTAL QG FORCING NOTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE
IS WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION. EXAMINATION OF VARIOUS MODEL 300/305K
ISENT SURFACES NOTES LESS BAROCLINICITY THAN LAST NIGHT SO PRECIP
CHANCES MAY BE DRIVEN MORE BY INSOLATION THAN YESTERDAY.
AIRMASS OVER SW HALF OF IA IS UNCAPPED WITH 1000 PLUS J/KG MLCAPES.
DEEP CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND CENTERED OVER MO RIVER NEAR FAR SERN
NE/NERN KS CLUSTER AND EXPECT THIS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO IA
WITHIN ONLY 15KT MEAN WIND. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MODERATE SO
CORFIDI VECTORS MAY RESULT IN EVEN SLOWER CELL MOTION. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS WEAK SO MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER
THAN SEVERE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWS 1.5 OR JUST ABOVE.
EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO PERSIST ALL NIGHT...BUT LIKELY
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON PERIODIC RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK AND TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST WITH INCREASED MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHES NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD
OF A VERY SLOW MOVING 500MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING TIME. CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL EVENTUAL PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
IN THE MEAN TIME...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CUT ACROSS
THE STATE AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA THAT WILL BE DRY MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NEXT VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARDS A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS LOOKING MORE DRY THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHT POPS OR LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE EAST WHILE NEW AREA OF
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING INTO FAR WEST. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE KDSM AND KOTM BY 11-12Z. OTHERWISE
VCSH AND PATCHY BR WILL BE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH 12Z. AFT 14Z AGAIN
LOOKING FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR THUNDER TO DEVELOP INTO THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTH
INTO IOWA FROM MISSOURI. TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION...SO WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HAVE
GONE VC FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO REFINE TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR NEXT
PACKAGE. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AFT 08-09Z AS BR
BEGINS TO DEVELOP./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT ASSUMING THE
RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. BASIC
SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY
MONDAY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS BRINGING A DRY SLOT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
KGLD...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN SLOWLY
BECOMING WEST BY 07Z THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z AND FINALLY NORTHEAST
BY 18Z. SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM 00Z
THROUGH 03Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TERMINAL MOVING
GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE.
KMCK...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE TO 06Z
THEN VRB03-06KTS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TSRA POSSIBLE IN
THE COUNTY BUT NOT NEAR THE TERMINAL TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT PRESENT
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1248 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT ASSUMING THE
RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. BASIC
SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY
MONDAY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS BRINGING A DRY SLOT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS
MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN THE EVENT A THUNDERSTORM
LOOKS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
1217 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND WILL START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHT RISES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT SUPPLIER OF
WETTER WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT
STEEP LAPSE RATES SLIDING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SOME INFLUENCE TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAKENING CAP. THEREFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE AS
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SURFACE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THESE EXPECTED VALUES...BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS
MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN THE EVENT A THUNDERSTORM
LOOKS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NW NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND WILL START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHT RISES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT SUPPLIER OF
WETTER WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT
STEEP LAPSE RATES SLIDING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SOME INFLUENCE TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAKENING CAP. THEREFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE AS
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SURFACE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THESE EXPECTED VALUES...BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS
MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN THE EVENT A THUNDERSTORM
LOOKS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
RADAR IS QUIET NOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NEAR THE MARTIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH WV. CANNOT SOUND THE ALL CLEAR THOUGH AS A STORM
JUST RECENTLY POPPED NEAR BARDSTOWN IN THE LMK CWA AND RECENT HRRR
RUNS HAVE GOTTEN ON BOARD AGAIN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF 20-30 POPS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ON
NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
HAVE OVERACHIEVED AND DROPPED SOME TREES...FROM RATHER BENIGN
LOOKING RADAR SIGNATURES. BUT...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STORMS SHOULD
BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND SHORTLY NOW THAT THE SUN IS ABOUT TO SET.
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH JUST SOME FINE
TUNING OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR WHICH NAILED THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH POPPED UP THIS MORNING IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP OVER OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN AREAS HIT WITH STORMS BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LOSE STRENGTH AND DIE OUT. AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP...COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER
DURING THE NIGHT AFTER 6Z. BY TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN TX/LOUISIANA AREA...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NE TO ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND REACH JUST NE OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROGRESSING
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW TO OUR SW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR PROFILE IN
PLACE...THOUGH STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HIGH GUSTS...AND SMALL
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN.
AS SEEMS TO BE THE TREND...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
NIGHTFALL. HOWEVER...UNLIKE TONIGHT...THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DECENT FORCING IN ADDITION TO AN ALREADY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SO WHILE STORMS MAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE
EVENING...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD STILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BRINGING IN
WARM HUMID AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RATHER BLOCKY LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL START OUT CHURNING ACROSS LOUISIANA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GULF UPPER LEVEL LOW
FADING AWAY. TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN UP ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...
SHUNTING IT FURTHER SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS WILL PEAK
ON THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION EXPECTED. ONCE
THE BOUNDARY EXITS AND WEAKENS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE HUMIDITY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING...BUT SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN SETS. CANNOT
RULE OUR A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. THESE WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THOUGH FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT FAVORING AREAS WHICH SAW RAIN
TODAY. WILL MENTION AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES...AND A TEMPO IFR AT SME WHICH RECEIVED A LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN
EARLIER TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
738 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ON
NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
HAVE OVERACHIEVED AND DROPPED SOME TREES...FROM RATHER BENIGN
LOOKING RADAR SIGNATURES. BUT...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STORMS SHOULD
BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND SHORTLY NOW THAT THE SUN IS ABOUT TO SET.
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH JUST SOME FINE
TUNING OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR WHICH NAILED THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH POPPED UP THIS MORNING IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP OVER OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN AREAS HIT WITH STORMS BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LOSE STRENGTH AND DIE OUT. AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP...COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER
DURING THE NIGHT AFTER 6Z. BY TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN TX/LOUISIANA AREA...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NE TO ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND REACH JUST NE OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROGRESSING
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW TO OUR SW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR PROFILE IN
PLACE...THOUGH STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HIGH GUSTS...AND SMALL
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN.
AS SEEMS TO BE THE TREND...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
NIGHTFALL. HOWEVER...UNLIKE TONIGHT...THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DECENT FORCING IN ADDITION TO AN ALREADY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SO WHILE STORMS MAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE
EVENING...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD STILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BRINGING IN
WARM HUMID AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RATHER BLOCKY LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL START OUT CHURNING ACROSS LOUISIANA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GULF UPPER LEVEL LOW
FADING AWAY. TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN UP ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...
SHUNTING IT FURTHER SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS WILL PEAK
ON THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION EXPECTED. ONCE
THE BOUNDARY EXITS AND WEAKENS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE HUMIDITY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING...BUT SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN SETS. CANNOT
RULE OUR A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. THESE WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THOUGH FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT FAVORING AREAS WHICH SAW RAIN
TODAY. WILL MENTION AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES...AND A TEMPO IFR AT SME WHICH RECEIVED A LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN
EARLIER TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHTER ACTIVITY SPAWNING BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...THIS IS BRINGING AN END TO ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. A FEW TEMPS ARE A BIT OFF THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPLOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBS
AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER A
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE MENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LEAD TO THE DEW
POINTS STAYING UP IN THE MORE OPEN VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS
BEEN THE CULPRIT TO THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND SO HAVE PUT
THE FOG IN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE GRIDS BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH THE
WEAKENED SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN
MANY OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A REMNANT AND VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WILL
SERVE AS A WEAK GRADIENT AREA TO HELP IN ANY DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
WEAK...THE INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
INSTABILITY. THE NAM TENDS TO SHOW A MOIST BIAS AND MODELS SOUNDINGS
USUALLY HAVE A LOT OF SURFACE CAPE AND SO CHECKED WITH THE GFS
SOUNDINGS. THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DEALING
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT IN THE NORTH.
FOR THE TONIGHT TIME FRAME...GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING...ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DWINDLING IN THE 00Z TO 06Z RANGE
BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A
CLOSED LOW THAT HAS UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FINALLY HAS DRIFTED EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS BUT STILL...THESE ARE
PRETTY WEAK FEATURES AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING TIMES. THEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE STAYED MAINLY WITH CHANCE POPS. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH UPPER
TROUGHS OFF BOTH COASTS...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS MIDLANDS AND IS
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM QUAD CITIES
TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN CURVE INTO A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE EAST
AND WILL BE NEAR ARKLATEX. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER FRONT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL START MOVING BACK TO
EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN LODGED IN THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HAVE A BIT OF A CONCERN THAT AN MCS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL
ARRIVE. THE LAST MCS CREATED A LOT OF DAMAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND...HOWEVER TWEAKED THEM TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 23Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ANY PASSING SHOWER
OR STORM COULD BRING CEILINGS AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
IFR TEMPORARILY. EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BEFORE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURRING JUST
BEFORE DAWN...ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THREATEN ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AND WSW...PEAKING BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS FROM LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
LIGHTENING UP AT DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The winds have become calm over much of the area, so really having
to use dewpoints to find the warm front early this morning. As of
08Z, it appears to be running from just north of Madisonville,
Kentucky to just south of Mt Vernon Illinois. All 00Z guidance
pushes the warm front northeast of the area shortly after
daybreak, so it does not appear there will be an obvious surface
boundary to help focus convection today.
The last couple HRRR runs, the latest of which is from 05Z,
consistently develop a north to south oriented band of convection
just east of the Mississippi River late this morning. Not sure
exactly what is touching this off, but it may just be diurnal
heating. The ridge at 500mb and 700 mb will push east of the area
by 18Z today, so there could be a disturbance in the developing
southwest flow that is responsible. The main upper low will keep
Texas and Oklahoma wet, but should not be a factor for our area.
The 00Z Hi-Res WRF/ARW looks very similar to the HRRR, so will
have a band of chancy PoPs to mimic the HRRR in moving it east
through the Lakes by early afternoon. Will have at least slight
chances throughout the area in the afternoon.
Another tendency in the 00Z guidance is for convection to fire
over southern Missouri and then shift eastward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. This trend is also represented in the grids. Capped PoPs
at 40 percent in both enhanced areas.
After the diurnal convection dies down early this evening, much of
the tonight period should be dry. The NAM brings some convection
northeast mainly into west Kentucky near sunrise, so will
introduce a slight chance in the pre-dawn hours.
PoPs for Tuesday may be overdone. There will not be an obvious
surface boundary to work with, and 00Z NAM and GFS soundings
struggle to generate any instability. The upper low will continue
to plague areas from the southern Plains eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may actually gobble up the better Gulf
moisture before it can reach our area. Will have 30-40% PoPs
through the day, but the coverage may be more isolated.
The NAM and GFS bring a mid-level trough into the region, to the
north of the low. This could keep things percolating over our
region, especially in our northern and western counties Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance PoP Tuesday night
and 30-40% PoP on Wednesday.
Some patchy ground fog has developed over areas that received
significant rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. This is
noted in the METARs from KPAH to KMDH. Given the patchy and
shallow nature of the fog, do not plan to issue an advisory or
special weather statement at this time, but will mention in the
HWO and continue to monitor.
Temperatures jumped into the upper 80s over the southwest half of
the area yesterday behind the warm front, so would expect similar
conditions throughout the area today. In the absence of widespread
and persistent convection, more than currently forecast, would
expect similar readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely leaned
toward the warm side of guidance which was generally derived from
the GFS. The NAM really seems to be choking on the low-level
moisture over the area, so its MET guidance looks too cool.
With a general lack of instability over the area, and weak wind
profiles, organized severe weather does not seem likely. Of
course, as always, a stray storm could briefly pulse up to near
severe levels in the heat of the day. Precipitable water at or
above 1.5" is not at the top of the climatological charts, but it
is well above normal, so heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern, along with lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The extended period will begin with a highly amplified pattern aloft
over the conus, with a ridge across the central section. A large
closed low in the mid levels over the Gulf Coast States is forecast
to slowly weaken and eventually dissipate while the central conus
ridge strengthens. Over next weekend, height falls over the PAH
forecast area will start to occur as nrn stream shrtwv energy
impinges on the central conus ridge.
At the sfc, a quasi-stationary boundary between the highest
dewpoint/humidity air to the south and somewhat drier air to the
north will be draped nw to se across the PAH forecast area for the
latter half of the week, then become more diffuse and move ewd away
from our region during the weekend. This boundary will provide some
focus for diurnally-driven shower and tstm activity, but it will be
difficult to tell exactly where activity will occur due to a slack
upper pattern over the PAH forecast area and persistent moist srly
low level flow. Convective activity is expected to be slow-moving
and may be conducive to localized flooding. The initialization blend
showed a decent signal for scattered showers and tstms for our
entire region Thu and Fri, especially during the day.
At this time, the med range models are in reasonable agreement with
the overall pattern over the conus, and indicate that a drier air
mass will sink swd through the Midwest and into our region from the
ne next Sat, confining deep moist convection to the swrn half of the
region. By Sun, return flow ahead of cold front sinking into the nrn
tier of states will deepen the moisture across our area again...
offering up a limited chance of pcpn.
Expect a stable temp pattern in this regime, with highs mostly in
the middle 80s except upper 80s Sun, and lows in the middle to upper
60s, with moderate humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
With the exception of MVFR vsbys in TSRA at KPAH/KEVV/KOWB between
18-21Z and BR at all sites between 09-13Z, VFR conditions expected through
the period. Winds will remain generally out of the south southwest
aob 10 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1048 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHTER ACTIVITY SPAWNING BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...THIS IS BRINGING AN END TO ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. A FEW TEMPS ARE A BIT OFF THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPLOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBS
AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER A
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE MENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LEAD TO THE DEW
POINTS STAYING UP IN THE MORE OPEN VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS
BEEN THE CULPRIT TO THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND SO HAVE PUT
THE FOG IN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE GRIDS BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH THE
WEAKENED SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN
MANY OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A REMNANT AND VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WILL
SERVE AS A WEAK GRADIENT AREA TO HELP IN ANY DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
WEAK...THE INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
INSTABILITY. THE NAM TENDS TO SHOW A MOIST BIAS AND MODELS SOUNDINGS
USUALLY HAVE A LOT OF SURFACE CAPE AND SO CHECKED WITH THE GFS
SOUNDINGS. THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DEALING
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT IN THE NORTH.
FOR THE TONIGHT TIME FRAME...GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING...ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DWINDLING IN THE 00Z TO 06Z RANGE
BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A
CLOSED LOW THAT HAS UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FINALLY HAS DRIFTED EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS BUT STILL...THESE ARE
PRETTY WEAK FEATURES AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING TIMES. THEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE STAYED MAINLY WITH CHANCE POPS. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH UPPER
TROUGHS OFF BOTH COASTS...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS MIDLANDS AND IS
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM QUAD CITIES
TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN CURVE INTO A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE EAST
AND WILL BE NEAR ARKLATEX. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER FRONT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL START MOVING BACK TO
EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN LODGED IN THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HAVE A BIT OF A CONCERN THAT AN MCS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL
ARRIVE. THE LAST MCS CREATED A LOT OF DAMAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND...HOWEVER TWEAKED THEM TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW VALLEY REGIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL SEE IT BURN OFF BY
12Z. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE INCHING CLOSER TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND SO HAVE AT LEAST PUT SOME VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SME
AND LOZ. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
SOME VALLEY REGIONS MAY SEE IFR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The patchy ground fog has behaved itself and will be improving
quickly now that the sun is up. Will remove it from the HWO by 8
AM.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The winds have become calm over much of the area, so really having
to use dewpoints to find the warm front early this morning. As of
08Z, it appears to be running from just north of Madisonville,
Kentucky to just south of Mt Vernon Illinois. All 00Z guidance
pushes the warm front northeast of the area shortly after
daybreak, so it does not appear there will be an obvious surface
boundary to help focus convection today.
The last couple HRRR runs, the latest of which is from 05Z,
consistently develop a north to south oriented band of convection
just east of the Mississippi River late this morning. Not sure
exactly what is touching this off, but it may just be diurnal
heating. The ridge at 500mb and 700 mb will push east of the area
by 18Z today, so there could be a disturbance in the developing
southwest flow that is responsible. The main upper low will keep
Texas and Oklahoma wet, but should not be a factor for our area.
The 00Z Hi-Res WRF/ARW looks very similar to the HRRR, so will
have a band of chancy PoPs to mimic the HRRR in moving it east
through the Lakes by early afternoon. Will have at least slight
chances throughout the area in the afternoon.
Another tendency in the 00Z guidance is for convection to fire
over southern Missouri and then shift eastward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. This trend is also represented in the grids. Capped PoPs
at 40 percent in both enhanced areas.
After the diurnal convection dies down early this evening, much of
the tonight period should be dry. The NAM brings some convection
northeast mainly into west Kentucky near sunrise, so will
introduce a slight chance in the pre-dawn hours.
PoPs for Tuesday may be overdone. There will not be an obvious
surface boundary to work with, and 00Z NAM and GFS soundings
struggle to generate any instability. The upper low will continue
to plague areas from the southern Plains eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may actually gobble up the better Gulf
moisture before it can reach our area. Will have 30-40% PoPs
through the day, but the coverage may be more isolated.
The NAM and GFS bring a mid-level trough into the region, to the
north of the low. This could keep things percolating over our
region, especially in our northern and western counties Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance PoP Tuesday night
and 30-40% PoP on Wednesday.
Some patchy ground fog has developed over areas that received
significant rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. This is
noted in the METARs from KPAH to KMDH. Given the patchy and
shallow nature of the fog, do not plan to issue an advisory or
special weather statement at this time, but will mention in the
HWO and continue to monitor.
Temperatures jumped into the upper 80s over the southwest half of
the area yesterday behind the warm front, so would expect similar
conditions throughout the area today. In the absence of widespread
and persistent convection, more than currently forecast, would
expect similar readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely leaned
toward the warm side of guidance which was generally derived from
the GFS. The NAM really seems to be choking on the low-level
moisture over the area, so its MET guidance looks too cool.
With a general lack of instability over the area, and weak wind
profiles, organized severe weather does not seem likely. Of
course, as always, a stray storm could briefly pulse up to near
severe levels in the heat of the day. Precipitable water at or
above 1.5" is not at the top of the climatological charts, but it
is well above normal, so heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern, along with lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The extended period will begin with a highly amplified pattern aloft
over the conus, with a ridge across the central section. A large
closed low in the mid levels over the Gulf Coast States is forecast
to slowly weaken and eventually dissipate while the central conus
ridge strengthens. Over next weekend, height falls over the PAH
forecast area will start to occur as nrn stream shrtwv energy
impinges on the central conus ridge.
At the sfc, a quasi-stationary boundary between the highest
dewpoint/humidity air to the south and somewhat drier air to the
north will be draped nw to se across the PAH forecast area for the
latter half of the week, then become more diffuse and move ewd away
from our region during the weekend. This boundary will provide some
focus for diurnally-driven shower and tstm activity, but it will be
difficult to tell exactly where activity will occur due to a slack
upper pattern over the PAH forecast area and persistent moist srly
low level flow. Convective activity is expected to be slow-moving
and may be conducive to localized flooding. The initialization blend
showed a decent signal for scattered showers and tstms for our
entire region Thu and Fri, especially during the day.
At this time, the med range models are in reasonable agreement with
the overall pattern over the conus, and indicate that a drier air
mass will sink swd through the Midwest and into our region from the
ne next Sat, confining deep moist convection to the swrn half of the
region. By Sun, return flow ahead of cold front sinking into the nrn
tier of states will deepen the moisture across our area again...
offering up a limited chance of pcpn.
Expect a stable temp pattern in this regime, with highs mostly in
the middle 80s except upper 80s Sun, and lows in the middle to upper
60s, with moderate humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
5-6SM in fog will be possible for the first hour of the TAF at
KPAH and KCGI, but otherwise this forecast boils down to a
convection forecast. There are already a few showers developing
over the Missouri BootHeel and west Tennessee. Some of these
showers may flirt with KPAH this morning, so through in a VCSH
with a mid-level ceiling there.
The latest model guidance indicates that convective initiation
may be closer to midday than previously thought. Will use VCTS to
express the threat generally for the early afternoon at KPAH and
KCGI. Coverage may be less in the northeast, but decided to
mention the VCTS at those sites as well in the late afternoon
through around sunset.
Cannot rule out some at least MVFR fog development late tonight
where significant precipitation occurs this afternoon or evening.
Left it out for now.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
341 AM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The winds have become calm over much of the area, so really having
to use dewpoints to find the warm front early this morning. As of
08Z, it appears to be running from just north of Madisonville,
Kentucky to just south of Mt Vernon Illinois. All 00Z guidance
pushes the warm front northeast of the area shortly after
daybreak, so it does not appear there will be an obvious surface
boundary to help focus convection today.
The last couple HRRR runs, the latest of which is from 05Z,
consistently develop a north to south oriented band of convection
just east of the Mississippi River late this morning. Not sure
exactly what is touching this off, but it may just be diurnal
heating. The ridge at 500mb and 700 mb will push east of the area
by 18Z today, so there could be a disturbance in the developing
southwest flow that is responsible. The main upper low will keep
Texas and Oklahoma wet, but should not be a factor for our area.
The 00Z Hi-Res WRF/ARW looks very similar to the HRRR, so will
have a band of chancy PoPs to mimic the HRRR in moving it east
through the Lakes by early afternoon. Will have at least slight
chances throughout the area in the afternoon.
Another tendency in the 00Z guidance is for convection to fire
over southern Missouri and then shift eastward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. This trend is also represented in the grids. Capped PoPs
at 40 percent in both enhanced areas.
After the diurnal convection dies down early this evening, much of
the tonight period should be dry. The NAM brings some convection
northeast mainly into west Kentucky near sunrise, so will
introduce a slight chance in the pre-dawn hours.
PoPs for Tuesday may be overdone. There will not be an obvious
surface boundary to work with, and 00Z NAM and GFS soundings
struggle to generate any instability. The upper low will continue
to plague areas from the southern Plains eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may actually gobble up the better Gulf
moisture before it can reach our area. Will have 30-40% PoPs
through the day, but the coverage may be more isolated.
The NAM and GFS bring a mid-level trough into the region, to the
north of the low. This could keep things percolating over our
region, especially in our northern and western counties Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance PoP Tuesday night
and 30-40% PoP on Wednesday.
Some patchy ground fog has developed over areas that received
significant rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. This is
noted in the METARs from KPAH to KMDH. Given the patchy and
shallow nature of the fog, do not plan to issue an advisory or
special weather statement at this time, but will mention in the
HWO and continue to monitor.
Temperatures jumped into the upper 80s over the southwest half of
the area yesterday behind the warm front, so would expect similar
conditions throughout the area today. In the absence of widespread
and persistent convection, more than currently forecast, would
expect similar readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely leaned
toward the warm side of guidance which was generally derived from
the GFS. The NAM really seems to be choking on the low-level
moisture over the area, so its MET guidance looks too cool.
With a general lack of instability over the area, and weak wind
profiles, organized severe weather does not seem likely. Of
course, as always, a stray storm could briefly pulse up to near
severe levels in the heat of the day. Precipitable water at or
above 1.5" is not at the top of the climatological charts, but it
is well above normal, so heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern, along with lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The extended period will begin with a highly amplified pattern aloft
over the conus, with a ridge across the central section. A large
closed low in the mid levels over the Gulf Coast States is forecast
to slowly weaken and eventually dissipate while the central conus
ridge strengthens. Over next weekend, height falls over the PAH
forecast area will start to occur as nrn stream shrtwv energy
impinges on the central conus ridge.
At the sfc, a quasi-stationary boundary between the highest
dewpoint/humidity air to the south and somewhat drier air to the
north will be draped nw to se across the PAH forecast area for the
latter half of the week, then become more diffuse and move ewd away
from our region during the weekend. This boundary will provide some
focus for diurnally-driven shower and tstm activity, but it will be
difficult to tell exactly where activity will occur due to a slack
upper pattern over the PAH forecast area and persistent moist srly
low level flow. Convective activity is expected to be slow-moving
and may be conducive to localized flooding. The initialization blend
showed a decent signal for scattered showers and tstms for our
entire region Thu and Fri, especially during the day.
At this time, the med range models are in reasonable agreement with
the overall pattern over the conus, and indicate that a drier air
mass will sink swd through the Midwest and into our region from the
ne next Sat, confining deep moist convection to the swrn half of the
region. By Sun, return flow ahead of cold front sinking into the nrn
tier of states will deepen the moisture across our area again...
offering up a limited chance of pcpn.
Expect a stable temp pattern in this regime, with highs mostly in
the middle 80s except upper 80s Sun, and lows in the middle to upper
60s, with moderate humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Scattered storms stayed well to the sw of the kevv area before they
dissipated during the evening. Skies then cleared across the
region...and winds became nearly calm. Where rain occurred in the
kpah area around sunset...fog has already begun to form. Expect at
least some periods of ifr vsbys at kpah due to rain moistened
ground. Fog will burn off just after sunrise.
After a mostly sunny morning...more scattered storms could
develop on Monday afternoon in a warm and humid southwest wind flow.
A weak disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere would be
the main trigger. Winds will increase from the southwest to around
10 knots. Any storms that develop would linger through the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1141 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT THEN CREST
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
11:40 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR AND SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOW LYING AREAS. LOWERED DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
COOL DRY AIR IS SETTLING IN.
PREV DISC: WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NYS AS OF
18Z WHILE AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS OFF THIS LOW INTO WSW MAINE
WHILE HIGH PRES IS WEDGING ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DISTURBANCE
WAS SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL ACT W/THE SFC FRONT
TO LEAD TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAIN
NOW EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AREAS. DECIDED TO BRING
RAINFALL CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH W/THIS PACKAGE USING A BLEND
OF THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS EDGING NORTH
OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NERFC AND HPC FOR QPF
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUPPORTS 0.15 TO 0.25" MAINLY IN
WESTERN AREAS. CLOUDS HAVE STAYED ALL THE WAY THROUGH TODAY BUT
SOME DRIER AIR WAS TRYING TO SEEP SOUTH FROM CANADA PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BACK BELOW 40F ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/THAT DRYING DRAINING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HITTING THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THEREFORE,
ADDED PATCHY FROST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
RAIN WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRES WEDGES DOWN FROM CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY W/THE
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE,
THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE A CHALLENGE W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 F THE CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER W/MID 60S AT LEAST AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZE THE POPS AND QPF WITH
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE WIND GRIDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25.
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM THE SUPPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDS
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT W/EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR MAINLY KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KHUL.
KBGR AND KBHB COULD HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER W/A
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WATERS PER THE LATEST OB FROM 33034 W/WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EXPECTING VSBY
TO IMPROVE AND FOG TO CLEAR AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE ENE ON
WEDNESDAY. KEPT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND DECIDED TO BRING
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL STAY AT 2-3 FT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM AROUND
2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. WIND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED THIS
PERIOD DUE TO THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS MAY PRODUCE LONG PERIOD WAVE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT THEN CREST
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: SHOWER ACTIVITY ATTM S AND W OF A HOULTON TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE W/ COOL AND DRY AIR BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE FAR N
AND NE WHERE SKIES HAVE SCTD OUT AT CARIBOU. ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS AND MADE A VRY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HRLY TEMPS TO BRING MORE IN LINE W/ LATEST OBS
ACROSS THE AREA...
PREV DISC: WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NYS AS OF
18Z WHILE AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS OFF THIS LOW INTO WSW MAINE
WHILE HIGH PRES IS WEDGING ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DISTURBANCE
WAS SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL ACT W/THE SFC FRONT
TO LEAD TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAIN
NOW EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AREAS. DECIDED TO BRING
RAINFALL CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH W/THIS PACKAGE USING A BLEND
OF THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS EDGING NORTH
OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NERFC AND HPC FOR QPF
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUPPORTS 0.15 TO 0.25" MAINLY IN
WESTERN AREAS. CLOUDS HAVE STAYED ALL THE WAY THROUGH TODAY BUT
SOME DRIER AIR WAS TRYING TO SEEP SOUTH FROM CANADA PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BACK BELOW 40F ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/THAT DRYING DRAINING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HITTING THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THEREFORE,
ADDED PATCHY FROST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
RAIN WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRES WEDGES DOWN FROM CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY W/THE
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE,
THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE A CHALLENGE W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 F THE CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER W/MID 60S AT LEAST AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZE THE POPS AND QPF WITH
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE WIND GRIDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25.
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM THE SUPPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDS
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT W/EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR MAINLY KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KHUL.
KBGR AND KBHB COULD HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER W/A
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WATERS PER THE LATEST OB FROM 33034 W/WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EXPECTING VSBY
TO IMPROVE AND FOG TO CLEAR AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE ENE ON
WEDNESDAY. KEPT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND DECIDED TO BRING
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL STAY AT 2-3 FT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM AROUND
2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. WIND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED THIS
PERIOD DUE TO THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS MAY PRODUCE LONG PERIOD WAVE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
718 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT THEN CREST
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WDSPRD CLDS ACROSS THE FA ATTM W/ LOWER SC CENTRAL AND N
W/ SOLID AS/AC ACROSS THE S... NRLY STATIONARY FRONT S AND W OF
THE AREA W/ SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES OVR NRN/ERN NYS. AN INVERTED SFC
TROF XTNDG NEWRD INTO WRN AMINE HELPING TO FOCUS SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WRN AREAS WHICH ARE SLIDING SEWRD. BEST CHC
FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SWRN AREAS INTO TNGT W/
DRIER BUT RATHER CHILLY AIR TRYING TO NOSE INTO FAR NRN/NERN AREAS.
JUST A MINOR TWEAK TO BEEF UP CLDS FAR N THIS UPDATE CYCLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FCST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM.
PREV DISC: WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NYS AS OF
18Z WHILE AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS OFF THIS LOW INTO WSW MAINE
WHILE HIGH PRES IS WEDGING ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DISTURBANCE
WAS SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL ACT W/THE SFC FRONT
TO LEAD TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAIN
NOW EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AREAS. DECIDED TO BRING
RAINFALL CHANCES FURTHER TO THE NORTH W/THIS PACKAGE USING A BLEND
OF THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS EDGING NORTH
OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NERFC AND HPC FOR QPF
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUPPORTS 0.15 TO 0.25" MAINLY IN
WESTERN AREAS. CLOUDS HAVE STAYED ALL THE WAY THROUGH TODAY BUT
SOME DRIER AIR WAS TRYING TO SEEP SOUTH FROM CANADA PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BACK BELOW 40F ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/THAT DRYING DRAINING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HITTING THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THEREFORE,
ADDED PATCHY FROST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
RAIN WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRES WEDGES DOWN FROM CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY W/THE
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE,
THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE A CHALLENGE W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 F THE CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER W/MID 60S AT LEAST AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZE THE POPS AND QPF WITH
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE WIND GRIDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25.
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM THE SUPPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDS
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT W/EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR MAINLY KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KHUL.
KBGR AND KBHB COULD HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER W/A
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WATERS PER THE LATEST OB FROM 33034 W/WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EXPECTING VSBY
TO IMPROVE AND FOG TO CLEAR AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE ENE ON
WEDNESDAY. KEPT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND DECIDED TO BRING
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL STAY AT 2-3 FT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM AROUND
2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. WIND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED THIS
PERIOD DUE TO THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS MAY PRODUCE LONG PERIOD WAVE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS FOR THE
EARLY EVE UPDATE BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MDL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER NE CANADA DROPS SOUTHWARD IN NW FLOW. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COOLING ALOFT...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE VALUES...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND EARLY PRECIP...INSTABILITY MAY BE
TEMPERED A BIT...BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO MET VALUES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SINCE THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING...BUT WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND DO NOT HAVE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE BIAS CORRECTED MOS VALUES FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF A DEPARTING BOUNDARY WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHOSE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MON/TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD...BUT
INCRSG SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL POSE A RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AS THE
TAF PD PROGRESSES.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL VIA SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
713 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THEN WRN PLAINS TO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN TROUGHS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED OVER NRN WI
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHRTWV NORTH OF A FRONT LOW OVER SE MN AND FRONT
THROUGH SRN WI.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WI SHRTWV AND REMAINING MID CLOUDS INTO THE SRN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO DRIFT TO THE SE. AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR WILL
DROP INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 0.3 INCH.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES ALSO DOMINATES. A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE VERY DRY 900-750 MB LAYER...EXPECT DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH RH DOWN TO NEAR 20
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY DUE TO CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY (AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO QUEBEC). AS THIS OCCURS...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES UNDER IT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGES...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO BE IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE A COUPLE HINTS OF SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES...COULD SEE
A FEW DIURNAL CU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND EITHER
VARIABLE OR OUT OF AT NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE COLD GREAT LAKES TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES TO BE THE NORM ON MOST DAYS. THUS...INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S) WHILE THE LAKESHORES WILL WARM UP IN THE MORNING AND
THEN START COOLING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING OVER THE INLAND
AREAS WILL SUPPORT LOWER RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOONS (MID 20S TO MID
30S PERCENT)...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND A RAPIDLY OCCURRING GREEN UP WILL
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GENERAL IDEA OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND EXACT TIMING. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SEEMS
REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN. A BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY NE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. SOUTH WINDS MAY NEAR OR EXCEED 20 KNOTS
BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN ONTARIO...TOO FAR N TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT
FORCING-WISE ACROSS UPPER MI AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LOCATION OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS
EXPECTED...CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE LAST 12 TO 18HRS. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
0.5 INCHES/72PCT OF NORMAL WHILE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED 1.45
INCHES/208PCT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...MORNING SUNSHINE LED TO QUICK
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND NOW SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W 2/3RDS OF UPPER MI. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYIS SHOWS MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. WEAK SHEAR
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT IS KEEPING STORMS IN CHECK. LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CLOSER TO 30KT HAS LED TO A FEW STRONG STORMS IN NE WI
TO THE W AND NW OF KMNM. STORMS THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF
CIRCULATION AND HAIL SIGNATURES. UPSTREAM...BEHIND COLD FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITH HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE...THE
STRATUS/FOG HAS COMPLETELY MIXED OUT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SHRA
THAT MOVED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HELPED GENERATE FOG
THAT HAS QUICKLY ADVECTED N TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS...FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER W AND CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR...APPARENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOLELY EXISTING BECAUSE OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY END FROM N
TO S THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTING E FROM MN...AND MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING ACROSS NRN WI/ADJACENT UPPER MI. IN
LIGHT OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE WI/MI BORDER INTO
SCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG TODAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR GREATLY INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ONSHORE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...
FCST WILL REFLECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BEST
CHC OF LOWER VIS AND -DZ OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS FLOW BECOME MORE SHARPLY UPSLOPE IN THAT AREA.
ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS/-DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF -SHRA ALONG MI/WI BORDER INTO THE MID
AFTN HRS UNTIL DRIER AIR MAKES A STRONGER PRESENCE AS SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER S. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE COMPARED TO TODAY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET OUT
OF THE 50S AND SOME MAY SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 40S. ACROSS THE
S...MIXING TOWARD 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS...A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S INLAND WED AND THE LOWER 80S THU ...PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN THE FROM NNE WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY WEAK
SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
SAT-MON...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE RESULTING FROM A SHRTWV MOVING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RETAINED THERE SLOWER
SOLUTION AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE FASTER ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
DRY WEATHER BY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHILE THE GFS REMAINED SIGNFICANTLY
SLOWER. UNTIL THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO MON...PER MDLS CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE
WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SPARK SCT SHRA AND SOME TSRA THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KCMX IS ALREADY INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER THERE THIS AFTN. SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND KIWD/KSAW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA...CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER FROPA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE SHARPER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY
SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL. IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD S TO THE UPPER
MI SHORE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS S INTO UPPER MI. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS...A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S INLAND WED AND THE LOWER 80S THU ...PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN THE FROM NNE WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY WEAK
SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
SAT-MON...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE RESULTING FROM A SHRTWV MOVING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RETAINED THERE SLOWER
SOLUTION AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE FASTER ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
DRY WEATHER BY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHILE THE GFS REMAINED SIGNFICANTLY
SLOWER. UNTIL THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO MON...PER MDLS CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE
WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SPARK SCT SHRA AND SOME TSRA THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KCMX IS ALREADY INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER THERE THIS AFTN. SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND KIWD/KSAW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA...CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER FROPA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE SHARPER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY
SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
154 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUE
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...AS THEY BECOME DISPLACED FROM
INSTABILITY. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A SHOWER AT
MBS AND FNT BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS ONTARIO BEGINS TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS (AROUND 5000 FEET) WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE WORKS
IN...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN HOWEVER TO MENTION IN TAFS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/TSTORMS WILL THEN EXIST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST LIKELY TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS WITH A PROB30 GROUP OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SHOWERS TOMORROW.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 21Z TO 12Z...THEN
MEDIUM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1110 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROGRESS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z NAM AND
13Z HRRR DO SEEM TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE WELL...AND DO NOT SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING
UNTIL BETWEEN 2PM AND 5 PM. THIS WILL BE AS A THETA-E RIDGE SURGES
INTO THE AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO DROP INTO THE AREA BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
ONTARIO...AND AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO COOL SLIGHTLY. DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND START TIMING A
LITTLE EARLIER...BUT THOUGHT IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY
OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN AS THEY DRAW CLOSER. THEY ARE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST
(HIGHER POPS/TIMING) ARE WARRANTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
QUIET START TO MEMORIAL DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z. THEN MOISTURE SURGE AT BOTH AROUND 850 MBS AND FROM
700/500 MBS AND ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
SUNSET.
WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE
IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A 50-60 KT JET STREAK...WILL BRING OUR
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS VERY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE JET GETS US INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT DOES HAVE JUST A BIT OF 700-500 MB
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MIXED LAYER CAPES TAKE ALL DAY TO
GET TO ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNSET AND MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED ML
LAYER OVERNIGHT. NO SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH SHEAR WITH WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN AT ABOUT 20-25 KTS AT 850 MBS AND 25-30 KTS AT 500 MBS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER
ON A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
STORM MOTION ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 20 MPH...WILL GET ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP.
WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT OUR 850 TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY. WILL NOT
GO TOO MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS PAST 18Z.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
QUITE THE LITTLE QUANDARY SETTING UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DESPITE LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE WAVELENGTH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS ALL SEEMS
POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF TWO REASONS: 1. THE COLD AND STABLE GREAT LAKES
ARE A GREAT ENVIRONMENT THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR ANTICYCLOGENESIS.
SO...ONCE A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STABLE AGGREGATE A POSITIVE
FEEDBACK LOOP DEVELOPS ALLOWING LAKE SCALE MESOHIGHS TO CLEAR THE
COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 2. THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A COMPONENT OF LINKED COLD
CONVEYOR/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SPUR THE FRONT SOUTHWARD.
THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE A GOOD MARKER FOR THE PSEUDO
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. POSITIONING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OR
THE STRAITS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...BECOMING ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THETA E PROGS SUPPORT A TON OF MOISTURE
ALIGNING/POOLING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1.70 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED AS EARLY AS 10/11 AM LDT. BEEN TRYING TO FIND A WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE
PROBLEM IS ONE IS NOT PRESENTING ITSELF MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TIME
A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY DUE TO WAVE SUBSIDENCE. SO...IT APPEARS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION OF PULSE TYPE CONVECTION.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS INDICATES LITTLE TO NO STORM
ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE ONLY
CONCERN. GIVEN MOS AND RAW OUTPUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FELT IT
PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS IT IS EXPECTED
THAT NUMEROUS COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A GREATER PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AGGREGATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIPS TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. ATTM...GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE ADEQUATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUPPORTING A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS THE NEAR
SURFACE THETA E MAXIMUM BECOMING ADVECTED INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY DRAPED TO SOUTH
OF LAKE ERIE SUGGESTS SOME LOW END SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LENAWEE COUNTY. OTHERWISE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
TAKE THE HUMIDITY OUT OF THE AIR AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING A
COMFORTABLE MID 70S.
AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HOLD OVER THE AGGREGATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING
THE NWP SOLUTIONS ROLL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SATURDAY COULD BE WARM TO HOT DAY AS SOME LARGE
SCALE SIGNALS ARE POINTING TO TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDING OVER
DIRECTLY OVER MICHIGAN. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO ALOT OF SUBSIDENCE
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MARINE...
BACKGROUND FORCING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO QUIET WIND
AND WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED. LAKE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A HUMID AIRMASS POOLS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH DRIER AIR.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL STALL OUT
JUST S/SW OF THE CWA WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE N. MOST
PRECIP FORCED FROM THE FRONT SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WILL FOG/DRIZZLE OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NRN UPPER
MI. THE 00Z/26 NAM HITS THIS THE HARDEST IN SHOWING QPF RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORELINES THROUGH MUCH OF TUE...AND THIS IS ALSO ALLUDED TO BY
THE GEM-NH AND THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BEFORE
TUESDAY...INCREASING SFC DEW PTS DUE TO CONTINUED RETURN FLOW TODAY
MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF PRIMARILY
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT IF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG DEVELOPS FOG AND
POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL
UPPER MI. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN...SO CLOUD COVER WILL
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
LIKELY WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. INLAND...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THU WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE CWA WITH NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA. SFC RIDGING THEN
TAKES HOLD AGAIN ON FRI...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED AND MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SPARK SCT SHRA AND SOME TSRA THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KCMX IS ALREADY INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER THERE THIS AFTN. SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND KIWD/KSAW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA...CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER FROPA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE SHARPER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY
SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1110 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROGRESS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z NAM AND
13Z HRRR DO SEEM TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE WELL...AND DO NOT SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING
UNTIL BETWEEN 2PM AND 5 PM. THIS WILL BE AS A THETA-E RIDGE SURGES
INTO THE AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO DROP INTO THE AREA BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
ONTARIO...AND AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO COOL SLIGHTLY. DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND START TIMING A
LITTLE EARLIER...BUT THOUGHT IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY
OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN AS THEY DRAW CLOSER. THEY ARE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST
(HIGHER POPS/TIMING) ARE WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 654 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL HOLD FIRM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BELOW 10K FT WITHIN MODEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
THICKENING HIGH CLOUD DECK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER BASED DIURNAL BKN VFR CU EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOW
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING AS THIS MOISTURE WORKS IN...BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO PROVIDE A DEFINITIVE MENTION.
ADDED A PROB30 FOR THE TAFS AFTER 03Z-06Z WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH BETTER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO REFINE SOME TAFS TO A TEMPO
GROUP AND WILL BE ABLE TO LEAVE OUT OTHERS. WHERE IT DOES RAIN
TONIGHT...MAY DEVELOP MVFR FOG. UPSTREAM OBS ARE NOT THAT PRONOUNCED
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LEAVE THAT OUT GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE
EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 21Z TO 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
QUIET START TO MEMORIAL DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z. THEN MOISTURE SURGE AT BOTH AROUND 850 MBS AND FROM
700/500 MBS AND ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
SUNSET.
WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE
IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A 50-60 KT JET STREAK...WILL BRING OUR
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS VERY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE JET GETS US INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT DOES HAVE JUST A BIT OF 700-500 MB
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MIXED LAYER CAPES TAKE ALL DAY TO
GET TO ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNSET AND MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED ML
LAYER OVERNIGHT. NO SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH SHEAR WITH WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN AT ABOUT 20-25 KTS AT 850 MBS AND 25-30 KTS AT 500 MBS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER
ON A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
STORM MOTION ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 20 MPH...WILL GET ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP.
WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT OUR 850 TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY. WILL NOT
GO TOO MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS PAST 18Z.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
QUITE THE LITTLE QUANDARY SETTING UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DESPITE LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE WAVELENGTH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS ALL SEEMS
POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF TWO REASONS: 1. THE COLD AND STABLE GREAT LAKES
ARE A GREAT ENVIRONMENT THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR ANTICYCLOGENESIS.
SO...ONCE A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STABLE AGGREGATE A POSITIVE
FEEDBACK LOOP DEVELOPS ALLOWING LAKE SCALE MESOHIGHS TO CLEAR THE
COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 2. THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A COMPONENT OF LINKED COLD
CONVEYOR/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SPUR THE FRONT SOUTHWARD.
THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE A GOOD MARKER FOR THE PSEUDO
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. POSITIONING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OR
THE STRAITS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...BECOMING ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THETA E PROGS SUPPORT A TON OF MOISTURE
ALIGNING/POOLING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1.70 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED AS EARLY AS 10/11 AM LDT. BEEN TRYING TO FIND A WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE
PROBLEM IS ONE IS NOT PRESENTING ITSELF MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TIME
A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY DUE TO WAVE SUBSIDENCE. SO...IT APPEARS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION OF PULSE TYPE CONVECTION.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS INDICATES LITTLE TO NO STORM
ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE ONLY
CONCERN. GIVEN MOS AND RAW OUTPUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FELT IT
PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS IT IS EXPECTED
THAT NUMEROUS COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A GREATER PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AGGREGATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIPS TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. ATTM...GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE ADEQUATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUPPORTING A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS THE NEAR
SURFACE THETA E MAXIMUM BECOMING ADVECTED INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY DRAPED TO SOUTH
OF LAKE ERIE SUGGESTS SOME LOW END SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LENAWEE COUNTY. OTHERWISE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
TAKE THE HUMIDITY OUT OF THE AIR AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING A
COMFORTABLE MID 70S.
AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HOLD OVER THE AGGREGATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING
THE NWP SOLUTIONS ROLL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SATURDAY COULD BE WARM TO HOT DAY AS SOME LARGE
SCALE SIGNALS ARE POINTING TO TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDING OVER
DIRECTLY OVER MICHIGAN. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO ALOT OF SUBSIDENCE
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MARINE...
BACKGROUND FORCING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO QUIET WIND
AND WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED. LAKE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A HUMID AIRMASS POOLS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH DRIER AIR.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL STALL OUT
JUST S/SW OF THE CWA WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE N. MOST
PRECIP FORCED FROM THE FRONT SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WILL FOG/DRIZZLE OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NRN UPPER
MI. THE 00Z/26 NAM HITS THIS THE HARDEST IN SHOWING QPF RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORELINES THROUGH MUCH OF TUE...AND THIS IS ALSO ALLUDED TO BY
THE GEM-NH AND THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BEFORE
TUESDAY...INCREASING SFC DEW PTS DUE TO CONTINUED RETURN FLOW TODAY
MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF PRIMARILY
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT IF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG DEVELOPS FOG AND
POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL
UPPER MI. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN...SO CLOUD COVER WILL
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
LIKELY WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. INLAND...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THU WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE CWA WITH NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA. SFC RIDGING THEN
TAKES HOLD AGAIN ON FRI...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED AND MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL ADVECT
MORE MSTR INTO THE AREA TDAY...RESULTING IN SOME ISOLD -SHRA THIS
MRNG. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TS WL COME THIS AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AT MAINLY SAW AND IWD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF THESE SHRA IS STILL TOO LO TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A FCST OF VCSH AT
THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH THEE WL BE PLENTY OF MID CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MSTR INFLUX...THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS. A WSHFT TO THE NNE BEHIND A COLD FROPA LATE TDAY/
TNGT MAY BRING SOME LO CLDS TO MAINLY SAW...WHERE THIS WIND WL
RESULT IN A SHARPER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF IFR WX
AT THIS SITE LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY MVFR AT IWD/CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL STALL OUT
JUST S/SW OF THE CWA WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE N. MOST
PRECIP FORCED FROM THE FRONT SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WILL FOG/DRIZZLE OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NRN UPPER
MI. THE 00Z/26 NAM HITS THIS THE HARDEST IN SHOWING QPF RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORELINES THROUGH MUCH OF TUE...AND THIS IS ALSO ALLUDED TO BY
THE GEM-NH AND THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BEFORE
TUESDAY...INCREASING SFC DEW PTS DUE TO CONTINUED RETURN FLOW TODAY
MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF PRIMARILY
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT IF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG DEVELOPS FOG AND
POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL
UPPER MI. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN...SO CLOUD COVER WILL
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
LIKELY WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. INLAND...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THU WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE CWA WITH NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA. SFC RIDGING THEN
TAKES HOLD AGAIN ON FRI...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED AND MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MON.
AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD
TSRA COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUD CIGS
ARE EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS MAKING A DENT IN THE RIDGE OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS
ADVECTED A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI AS NOTED ON RUC
ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EVEN AT MANY LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE LOCAL COOLING OCCURRED. GRADIENT SW FLOW IS
OBVIOUSLY KEEPING AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COOLER. FAIRPORT AND KISQ
HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS GET OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTN. IN FACT...FAIRPORT
HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY AROUND 50F. DEEP MIXING HAS BROUGHT MUCH
DRIER AIR DOWNWARD WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. RESULT HAS BEEN RH AS
LOW AS 15-20PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIEST. OUT TO THE W...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. ADVANCING CLOUD DECK THRU SE
MN/IA INTO FAR WRN WI MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
ADVANCING NE.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING WHEN PCPN
POTENTIAL WILL REACH UPPER MI AND THEN COVERAGE OF PCPN ON MEMORIAL
DAY. AREA OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AT LEAST THRU THE
EVENING HRS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PLAINS NE. BY
12Z MON...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 200PCT OF
NORMAL. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 25KT...SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...AND INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM 850MB) COULD CERTAINLY SPARK SOME CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL
BEGINNING OVER THE FAR W AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THERE`S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA LIFTS ENE INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A ZONE OF VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE EXTENDING S INTO UPPER MI FROM MAIN AREA OF FORCING
FARTHER N IN NRN ONTARIO. SO...AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA OF LOW POPS SPREADING INTO THE W OVERNIGHT (LOW CHC FAR W
LATE). WILL CARRY SCHC POPS AS FAR E AND N AS ROUGHLY A
KCMX/KMQT/KMNM LINE BEFORE 12Z.
ON MEMORIAL DAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT
SHIFTS E...AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
UPPER MI. IF ANYTHING THERE ARE SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL
BE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON MEMORIAL DAY...BUT NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING...BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPES GENERALLY AROUND
500 TO POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000J/KG. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...BUT WILL BE
LARGELY MASKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT TIED TO DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCT/CHC CATEGORY. KEWEENAW MAY END UP DRY AS LAKE MODERATION KEEPS
INSTABILITY IN CHECK THERE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NO GREATER THAN
25KT...AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LARGER SCALE FEATURES BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGE
APPEARS TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THEN
THERE ARE HINTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COOLER EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL KEEP MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
A DRY AIRMASS HOLD STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. AT
THIS POINT...WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG ANY OF THE DAYS
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL OFFSET THE DRY AIRMASS/WARM TEMPS/LOWER RH
VALUES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
INITIAL PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER AREA OF SMALL
CONCERN FOR POPS WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN. LINGERING HIGHER H85-H7 RH ON NORTH EDGE OF STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
COULD POP ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. NIL INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK...IF
ANY ENHANCEMENT FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES VERY LOW THOUGH.
H85-H7 WINDS ARE MORE NORTHERLY SO IF SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP THEY
WOULD QUICKLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AWAY FM UPR MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS
COOLEST IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS SKIES TURN OUT
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS DOWN TO 70 PCT OF
NORMAL AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR COLDEST SPOTS COULD
DIP TO 40 DEGREES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
THETA-E ADVECTION COULD HELP POP UP MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
MINNESTOTA AND NORTHWEST WI ALONG WITH AREAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WNW FLOW AT H85-H7 WOULD STEER ANY
SHOWERS TOWARD FAR WEST CWA...VCTY OF KIWD AND ALSO WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE. ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND CHANCES WILL
BE KEPT VERY LOW. COOLING WILL STILL BE MORE NOTABLE NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS INLAND TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS MORE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS MAY FALL BRIEFLY OVER UPPER
LAKES...ALLOWING THE SFC TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY TO CROSS
CWA ON THURSDAY. IDEA OF A TROUGH PASSAGE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET BUT NOT AS MUCH THE GEM-NH. ANY DYNAMICS TIED TO THE SFC TROUGH
ARE FORECAST WELL TO NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER ONTARIO. INCREASE OF
H85-H7 RH PRECEEDS THE SFC BOUNDARY...PRETTY MUCH EXITING CWA BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ALONG THE TROUGH EITHER. WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST SURE THING FOR A DRY DAY. DIFFERENCES
THEN APPEAR IN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY IN HANDLING OF HOW
QUICK THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP AND THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN A NUTSHELL...ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS DRAWS SOME ATTENTION AS MOST
TIMES THIS IS USUALLY FLIPPED WITH THE GFS TYPICALLY QUICKER. MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR NOW GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLIES NEARBY AND
FCST MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOOSTED
TEMPS UPWARD WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MON.
AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD
TSRA COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUD CIGS
ARE EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1112 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Thunderstorms over southern Illinois have nearly diminished late this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Storms that were over northwest
Missouri earlier this evening have moved northeast into Iowa and have
also decreased in intensity and areal coverage. Expect overall coverage
of storms to be minimal overnight. However, RAP and HRRR are showing
some indications of thunderstorms developing toward daybreak over
southern Missouri, so added slight chances over the southern
counties. Made only minor changes to temperatures.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Rain-cooled bubble of air from morning convection has left a
well-defined boundary which was near a Mexico-DeSoto at 1930z.
Despite the boundary, convection so far as been limited to one or
two cells over SE MO, as well as a couple of storms over central/n
central MO. Think that any storms that form on the boundary will
have trouble getting too far into the more stable airmass northeast
of this feature, so evening convection will likely primarily be limited
to areas west of the Mississippi River. While much of the evening
convection will be diurnally-driven, some shortwave energy may
brush northwest sections of the CWA during the late evening and
overnight hours, and have maintained low pops over this area
during this time period for this threat.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Through mid-week not seeing any major changes in sensible weather
trends across the FA. Region will remain in moist and modestly
unstable airmass, while weak disturbances ejecting out ahead of slow
moving upper low will occasionally impinge on this airmass.
It still appears that large scale PoP trends will continue
to exhibit a fairly decent diurnal swing, maxing out during the
afternoon with max heating and instability with a relative
(non-zero) minima during the late evening and overnight hours.
However, exact PoP trends will ultimately be dictated by the arrival
of the shortwave impulses, so fine-tuning of precip threat
will continue to be a short-term forecast exercise. It would appear
that the diurnal PoP swing will be most pronounced over our
southeast counties, where affects of upper level ridging will be
most pronounced.
Models have maintained very good consistency with movement of cutoff
low currently over the SW U.S, with the system moving east-southeast
as it encounters large scale ridging and into the ARKLATEX region by
Wednesday. While this is quite removed from our FA PoPs will remain
in the forecast as NWP solutions do hint at shortwaves rotating
around the system brushing sw sections of our area, with the
addition of weak shortwave energy also overtopping ridge and
dropping into the region. In addition to these features, forecast
sounding still suggest no real change in the AMS over the region,
so with little if any CIN some convective initiation should not
be too difficult to attain.
Heading into the latter part of the week the remnants of the upper
low drifts into the northern Gulf, leaving unseasonably strong
longwave ridge to dominate our weather. There does seem to be some
shear axis/weakness in the 5H field on Thursday that could aid in
storm development, but by Sat it would appear that any precip
threat will strictly be diurnally driven and very spotty. For now I`ve
continued going forecast trends and pushed PoPs towards climo by
Saturday. I`m wondering if Friday`s PoPs may still be too high,
but will watch upcoming model runs to get a better feel for this.
A greater precip threat should return to at least northern
sections of the area by next Sunday as a series of shortwaves
begin to flatten ridge.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal as
upper ridge keeps warm air anchored over the central CONUS, with
highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Not much change from the prev forecast. Light winds will become
swly Mon morning. Can not rule out TSRA impacting UIN during the
morning hours. Otherwise, all terminals will have a chance of
being impacted by isod to sct TSRA during the afternoon into early
evening.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
858 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER ARKALATEX THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD RIDGING INTO
CENTRAL CANADA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 19Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION
INDICATED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AS WELL. RIDGING BUILT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY WAS LITTERED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WAS GENERALLY DRY.
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE WAS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
CONTINUING TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK PV
ANOMALY MOVES EWD ACROSS SD WHICH IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY...HOWEVER OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SWD. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND BRINGS THE ISOLATED TSRA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES THROUGH 08Z OR SO. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY
MULTICELL WITH BRIEF UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENTS TO NEAR SVR LEVELS
BEFORE COLLAPSING. HAVE INCREASED CHCS ACROSS THE NC ZONES INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ADJUSTED GRIDDED FORECAST POPS SLIGHTLY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS...BUT WORDING REMAINED THE SAME. ISOLATED TSRA
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND TYPICAL OF PULSE TYPE STORMS. STORMS
IN SD HAVE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDRY AND MOVING
SEWD. WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLLIDED WITH ANOTHER BOUNDRY JUST EAST
OF BLACK HILLS RECENTLY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. WILL BE
MONITORING THESE TRENDS AS CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT BRING THESE
INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LLJ TO PRODUCE LIFTING
ALONG OUTFLOW. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE CAPE AS OF 19Z RANGED FROM 500J/KG
TO 2500J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER VALUES UP NEAR
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS LIMITED AND
ALTHOUGH HAVE THE INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY GET A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT TO HELP FUEL ANY STORMS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. IF THERE ARE ANY STORMS AROUND...THE FLOW IN THE
STEERING LAYER IS LIGHT SO SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED. AND IN TERMS
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...WIND SHEAR IS LOW SO DON/T THINK ANY STORMS
LOCALLY WILL BE ABLE TO GET ORGANIZED TO THE POINT OF BEING
SEVERE...AT LEAST NOT IN A SUSTAINED MANNER.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WITH
IT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS MILD...BUT EVEN WITH
LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL ENOUGH TO REACH
SATURATION AND DEVELOP FOG. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPERATURES
RISE 2-4 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOOKING FOR MIXING TO 700-750MB WHICH WOULD WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY REACH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO EVEN WITH INCREASING
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...WON/T GET GUSTS TO MUCH OVER 15-20MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE FORECAST STAYS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND THEN DIFFER DRAMATICALLY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF DRAWING MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER FRIDAY WHILE GFS CONTINUES UPWARD TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS GFS SENDS REMNANTS OF
AMANDA INTO THE PACIFIC WHILE ECMWF DRAGS REMNANTS THROUGH DESERT
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND WILL
GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE GFS FORECAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBR SKA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60. SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. HAVE LEFT
NORTHWEST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE WEST. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND GOOD SHEER SETUP FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. INCREASED POPS AND SPREAD THEM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR PATTERN TO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF TROUGH TO THE WEST HAVE CHANCES
OF TRW IN FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRA
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH SUNSET BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER THAT
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING BEYOND DIURNAL TRENDS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WATCHING CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING SEWD IN
CENTRAL SD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG OUTFLOW GENERATED
EARLIER. IF NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES KVTN MAY NEED SOME ISOLATED
MENTION BEFORE 05Z...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FCST AT THIS TIME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA HOLDING TOGETHER TO THE NEB BORDER. WEAK
TSRA IN NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...POWER/BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY
WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WITHIN AN AXIS OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS...AND PULSE UP FOR A FEW SCANS
THEN FIZZLE. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO
HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND A FEW GUSTS OF 40KTS AS THE CELLS
COLLAPSE.
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. HRRR AND
RAP INDICATE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA...CLOSER TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND HAVE TRENDED
POPS THIS WAY.
THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TSTMS COULD FORM ONCE AGAIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES SLIDE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG SAME
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW A SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING ON WHEN THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER OUR AREA
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE CONTINUED POPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR ANY STORM TO ROLL OVER A TAF SITE IS SMALL...HAVE ADDED
THIS TO THE TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE GREATER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. AFTER THE EVENING HOURS...CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE. AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 12Z AT
ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID UPDATE FOR MINOR
CHANGES TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z OAX SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED SINCE 12Z...WHICH WAS LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 1800
J/KG WITH LITTLE MLCIN. THIS WAS SUFFICIENT FOR ISO/SCT TSRA
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FA THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WITH THE THETA-E DIFF OF 22/DCAPE OF 900 J/KG...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HIGH PWAT. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...AND GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST WITH PWATS DECREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION IS AND DOWNSTREAM...BUT DECREASE TO SCHC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NEAR TERM WX HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST BUT SHORT-RANGE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG AXIS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTH. THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE EVENING SET UP
THE HRRR AND RAP DEPICT. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EVENING
FORECAST JUST IN CASE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TSTMS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COULD CREATE FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PW`S GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.50" THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH PCPN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK...THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SFC BOUNDARY TO
DROP INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL LIKELY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AT KOMA BUT OTHERWISE A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BUT A ROUGE SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WITH RAIN FALLING...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA/KLNK...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME REDUCED VISBY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW. OTHERWISE MODELS CONT TO WANT TO DRY
THINGS OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CIGS IN OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE ISO/SCT TSRA
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT OFK AFTER 21Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1125 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRYING AND LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1115 PM TUESDAY...CONVECTION COVERAGE HAS DECREASED ACROSS
THE ILM CWA LATE THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AT ITS BEST COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE SFC TROF
...WHATS LEFT OF THE SEA BREEZE...AND REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH 1 ANOTHER TO KEEP
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION GOING. THE DYNAMICS FROM A VERY WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS
THE FA INTO THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. LATEST HRRR ALSO OUTLINES THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY WITH THE ILM NC COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PRODUCE AN ACTIVE SW-WSW WIND. THIS POINTS TO FOG NOT BEING A
WIDESPREAD PROBLEM. HOWEVER...IF THE 2 MENTIONED PARAMETERS DO NOT
PAN OUT LIKE IS FORECAST...THEN FOG WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED
AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE TWEAKED A DEGREE OR 2 HIGHER DUE TO A MUCH SOUPIER AIR
MASS...PWS OVER 1.7 INCHES...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONVECTION BUBBLING UP ACROSS THE REGION AS
WE APPROACH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. VAPOR ANIMATIONS AND FORECAST
VORTICITY FIELDS ALOFT IDENTIFY A WEAK IMPULSE OVER WESTERN NC
MOVING EAST...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED AND MORE
ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY APPROACHING CENTRAL NC. WHILE IT IS TRUE
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL BE TIED TO
DIURNAL HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE PASSING IMPULSE OVERHEAD
LATER TONIGHT...MOUNTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
STEERING FLOW...BUT FULL-FLEDGED STORMS OF GREATER VERTICAL EXTENT
WILL CATCH THE HIGHER NW WINDS ALOFT...AND GENERALLY WILL MOVE TO
THE ESE-SE AROUND 10 KT. WEAK STEERING FLOW OVERALL AND INCREASING
PWAT VALUES STILL POINTS TO A LOW-END THREAT OF VERY LOCALIZED
FLOODING UNDERNEATH THE BEEFIER STORMS.
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BASED ON HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE LAV HOURLY DATA
WHICH HAS DONE WELL. MINS ESSENTIALLY LOW 70S AT AND NEAR THE SEA
AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST WED/THU...WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ATOP THIS
FEATURE. LOCALLY...THE AREA REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE GULF...AND AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE BUT WITH WEAK FLOW...BY THURSDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CRASH AS THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH...DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS MAKES
WEDNESDAY THE WARMER DAY...WIDESPREAD 90S EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...WITH THURSDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST AND UPR 60S INLAND.
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...MORE DIURNALLY
FORCED WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. PWATS
FALL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THERMAL RIDGING SO THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT WITH ONLY A CHC
EVERYWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...SERVING AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SPC HAS A SEE
TEXT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...BUT ATTM SEE ONLY LIMITED SEVERE
RISK WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
SUGGEST A LOT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT QUITE
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE. INITIALLY A REX BLOCK
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL DROP FROM CURRENT APPROXIMATE VALUES OF 1.80 INCHES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. MUCH LIKE WE SAW THIS
WEEKEND...A REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLE BUT THE
TRANSITION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE OF COURSE A LITTLE LOWER
IN TIME WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT LOWS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAKING THEIR
WAY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. IN PARTICULAR...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
W-SW OF KLBT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT KLBT...
WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR KLBT EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. DESPITE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...FOG
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SFC WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL TODAY. WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST
SCT STRATUS AT KFLO/KLBT FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS A
COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCEC THRESHOLDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LATEST NAM AND GFS KEEP WIND
CONDITIONS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. THESE GUSTS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
THE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE COMBINES WITH THE SFC PG. ONCE THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES BY MIDNIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN
TIGHTENED TO PRODUCE AROUND 15 KT...UP TO 20 KT ILM NC
WATERS...FOR THE WED PRE-DAWN HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS A SOLID 3 TO
4 FEET...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 5 FOOTERS AROUND
THE CAPE FEAR AREA WATERS...BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH OF THEM TO OCCUR
TO PLACE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST
LOOKING AOK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO RE-LOOK AT THE NEXT UPDATE
DUE TO LOCAL PCPN ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT...IN A MIX OF MODERATE SW CHOP
AND 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 9 SECONDS OR SO. STEERING WINDS ALOFT
MAY POSSIBLY GUIDE TSTMS E OR SE TOWARD THE COAST AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SW
WINDS OF 15 KT SUSTAINED CAN BE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KT ON THE WATERS. SEAS CAPPED AT 4 FEET AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS THAT IMPACT THE
WATERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 1NM IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BEING SHUNTED SOUTH BY A SLOWLY DROPPING COLD FRONT.
THIS DRIVES SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON THURSDAY. UNCERTAIN INTO JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DROP DURING THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK SW
WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SE SWELL BEING TOPPED BY A SW WIND
CHOP ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MORE CONFUSED SPECTRUM WITH THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF ASSOCIATED WITH NE SURGES. FOR
FRIDAY...LETHARGIC WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. FOR
LATER SATURDAY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT THE SEAS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 1-2 FEET FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO 3-4 FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRYING AND LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...CONVECTION COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS
THE ILM CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE LEE SIDE
TROF...SEA BREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALL INTERACT WITH
1 ANOTHER TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING...EVEN AFTER SUNSET. THE
DIURNALLY INDUCED PORTION OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH-SOME
BUT THE INTERACTING SFC BOUNDARIES AND DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL VORT/IMPULSE/SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS NORTH OF THE FA...WILL
ALL LIKELY AID IN KEEPING SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
ALTHOUGH A LOWERED CHANCE...GOING ON WELL INTO THE NIGHT OR PRE-
DAWN WED HOURS. LATEST HRRR ALSO OUTLINES THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY WITH THE ILM NC
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PRODUCE AN ACTIVE SW-WSW WIND. THIS POINTS TO FOG NOT BEING A
WIDESPREAD PROBLEM. HOWEVER...IF THE 2 MENTIONED PARAMETERS DO NOT
PAN OUT LIKE IS FORECAST...THEN FOG WILL HAVE TO BE REVISTED
AGAIN ESPECIALLY AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONVECTION BUBBLING UP ACROSS THE REGION AS
WE APPROACH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. VAPOR ANIMATIONS AND FORECAST
VORTICITY FIELDS ALOFT IDENTIFY A WEAK IMPULSE OVER WESTERN NC
MOVING EAST...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED AND MORE
ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY APPROACHING CENTRAL NC. WHILE IT IS TRUE
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL BE TIED TO
DIURNAL HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF THE PASSING IMPULSE OVERHEAD
LATER TONIGHT...MOUNTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
STEERING FLOW...BUT FULL-FLEDGED STORMS OF GREATER VERTICAL EXTENT
WILL CATCH THE HIGHER NW WINDS ALOFT...AND GENERALLY WILL MOVE TO
THE ESE-SE AROUND 10 KT. WEAK STEERING FLOW OVERALL AND INCREASING
PWAT VALUES STILL POINTS TO A LOW-END THREAT OF VERY LOCALIZED
FLOODING UNDERNEATH THE BEEFIER STORMS.
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BASED ON HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE LAV HOURLY DATA
WHICH HAS DONE WELL. MINS ESSENTIALLY LOW 70S AT AND NEAR THE SEA
AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST WED/THU...WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ATOP THIS
FEATURE. LOCALLY...THE AREA REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE GULF...AND AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE BUT WITH WEAK FLOW...BY THURSDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CRASH AS THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH...DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS MAKES
WEDNESDAY THE WARMER DAY...WIDESPREAD 90S EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...WITH THURSDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST AND UPR 60S INLAND.
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...MORE DIURNALLY
FORCED WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. PWATS
FALL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THERMAL RIDGING SO THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT WITH ONLY A CHC
EVERYWHERE. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...SERVING AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SPC HAS A SEE
TEXT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...BUT ATTM SEE ONLY LIMITED SEVERE
RISK WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
SUGGEST A LOT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT QUITE
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE. INITIALLY A REX BLOCK
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL DROP FROM CURRENT APPROXIMATE VALUES OF 1.80 INCHES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. MUCH LIKE WE SAW THIS
WEEKEND...A REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLE BUT THE
TRANSITION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE OF COURSE A LITTLE LOWER
IN TIME WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT LOWS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAKING THEIR
WAY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. IN PARTICULAR...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
W-SW OF KLBT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT KLBT...
WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR KLBT EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. DESPITE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...FOG
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SFC WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL TODAY. WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST
SCT STRATUS AT KFLO/KLBT FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS A
COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 730 PM TUESDAY...LATEST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCEC
THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ILM NC WATERS. LATEST NAM AND GFS
KEEP WIND CONDITIONS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THESE GUSTS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE THE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE COMBINES WITH THE SFC PG. ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES BY MIDNIGHT...THE SFC PG
WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED TO PRODUCE AROUND 15 KT...UP TO 20 KT ILM NC
WATERS...FOR THE WED PRE-DAWN HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS A SOLID 3 TO
4 FEET...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 5 FOOTERS AROUND
THE CAPE FEAR AREA WATERS...BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH OF THEM TO OCCUR
TO PLACE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST
LOOKING AOK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO RE-LOOK AT THE NEXT UPDATE
DUE TO LOCAL PCPN ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT...IN A MIX OF MODERATE SW CHOP
AND 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 9 SECONDS OR SO. STEERING WINDS ALOFT
MAY POSSIBLY GUIDE TSTMS E OR SE TOWARD THE COAST AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SW
WINDS OF 15 KT SUSTAINED CAN BE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KT ON THE WATERS. SEAS CAPPED AT 4 FEET AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS THAT IMPACT THE
WATERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 1NM IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BEING SHUNTED SOUTH BY A SLOWLY DROPPING COLD FRONT.
THIS DRIVES SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON THURSDAY. UNCERTAIN INTO JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DROP DURING THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK SW
WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SE SWELL BEING TOPPED BY A SW WIND
CHOP ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MORE CONFUSED SPECTRUM WITH THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF ASSOCIATED WITH NE SURGES. FOR
FRIDAY...LETHARGIC WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. FOR
LATER SATURDAY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT THE SEAS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 1-2 FEET FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO 3-4 FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MUCAPE MAGNITUDES THIS
AFTERNOON (1000 J/KG WEST). HOWEVER...0-6 KM WIND SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KNOTS STILL COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT
COULD GENERATE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL GRADAULLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHIFTED FOCUS FOR MORNING FOG OVER AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AS PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS FOR NOW...WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH 17 UTC. AS A RESULT...DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14 UTC FOR
STUTSMAN...LAMOURE...DICKEY...LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES BASED
UPON WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KTS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL PER -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND
HEAVY RAIN VIA SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND CAPPING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES...CAPPING
PLACES UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD IT
FORM...MAY BE SEVERE. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM WATFORD CITY TO KDIK AND INTO KBIS FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE IFR STRATUS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A VFR
CU FIELD BY 20Z AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO KMOT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND INTO KBIS
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE EN ROUTE TO FIX THE KISN ASOS. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
920 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHIFTED FOCUS FOR MORNING FOG OVER AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AS PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS FOR NOW...WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH 17 UTC. AS A RESULT...DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14 UTC FOR
STUTSMAN...LAMOURE...DICKEY...LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES BASED
UPON WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KTS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL PER -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND
HEAVY RAIN VIA SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND CAPPING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES...CAPPING
PLACES UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD IT
FORM...MAY BE SEVERE. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 14-15 UTC.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPO AND PREVAILING THUNDER GROUPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO KISN/KMOT/KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS WITH THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE NEAR KISN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS TODAY. RETURN TO SERVICE IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD NOT
SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
715 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH 17 UTC. AS A RESULT...DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14 UTC FOR
STUTSMAN...LAMOURE...DICKEY...LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES BASED
UPON WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KTS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL PER -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND
HEAVY RAIN VIA SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND CAPPING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES...CAPPING
PLACES UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD IT
FORM...MAY BE SEVERE. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 14-15 UTC.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPO AND PREVAILING THUNDER GROUPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO KISN/KMOT/KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS WITH THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE NEAR KISN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ037-047-
048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR CARRINGTON AND
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST AND THE AREA IS NOW IN THE 5 PERCENT RISK IN THE NEW SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MUCAPE BETWEEN 1-2K STILL DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INCLUDING WARD AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. LATEST RADAR DOES INDEED STILL DEPICT SEVERAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA...AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...TRENDING POPS
DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 09Z AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
DECREASING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
UPDATED DISCUSSION...LOW CIGS FORECAST BY THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO THROW IN PATCHY FOG FOR
THESE AREAS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INCREASING
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AS THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATED...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE EVENING.
OPTED TO GO HIGHER SKY COVER WEST...SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE NAM/RAP/HRRR ALL INDICATING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
INCREASING UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ALMOST OUT OF MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MOST IF NOT ALL RADAR ACTIVITY NOW TO MY SOUTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING 1-2K MUCAPE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH STILL POP UP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SEVERE REST OF TONIGHT IS SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP.
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH...AND BACK ACROSS
THE WEST. IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING A CLOSER LOOK FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE IN 1-3 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND
FORKS TO JAMESTOWN INTO ASHLEY. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PUT AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER NW ND COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERALL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
MAIN JET REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MULTIPLE...BUT WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRIGGER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR WEST AND
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS VERSUS SOUTH AND EAST. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND DEEPEN AT TIMES ALONG THE
WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS
BRIEF RIDGE CREATES A LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C TO +22C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN
THE 80S GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING...LITTLE COOLER
IF THIS IS NOT ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATING MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST...IMPACTING KJMS-KBIS-KDIK. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR KDIK.
ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY 14-16Z MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KISN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS
FOR NOW.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
104 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING. IT`S NOT DEJA
VU... BUT FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE
REGIONS OF CONVECTION... ONE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND ONE
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO CHURN OVER NRN NM/SRN CO. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE HIRES NMM AND ARW
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO EVOLVE THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALL POINT TO AN INCREASING LLJ BETWEEN 07-09Z...
COUPLED WITH A DECENT 300MB JET. CURRENT IR SAT REVEALS SOME
POSSIBLE CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE TXPH...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPED
ACROSS WRN N TX AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS
RESOLVED BY THE RECENT HRRR (03Z)... WHICH ALSO LIFTS THE CURRENT
CONVECTION OVER THE TXPH NORTHWARD. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS... STILL FEEL IT IS OVER CONVECTING... ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 12Z ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL OK. HOWEVER... ITS PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN N TX INTO SWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR KPNC THROUGH 08Z.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP AFTER 08Z NEAR KSPS AND
MOVE/SPREAD NORTHEAST. PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN A
LOCATION GETS AFFECTED BY SHRA/TSRA REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TS EXCEPT NEAR KGAG AND KWWR
22-01Z.
PLAN TO FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09-18Z. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. BR IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME VFR
AT MOST SITES AFTER 18Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST NEXT 12 HRS IS NOT VERY HIGH. DID
LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP IN NORTH
TEXAS.
LATER TONIGHT EC/RAP13 HAVE NOSE OF MODERATE LLJ NEAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS (70-80 KT JET) SHOULD RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF FA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO NEXT 24 HOURS HOURS WITH MAJORITY OF
MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND
EVOLUTION/IMPACTS OF NUMEROUS MCVS PRODUCED FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION. FIRST AND MOST IMPACTING FOR OUR CWA IS MCV MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AIDING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF OKC. ANOTHER
IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE MINIMAL SENSIBLE EFFECTS THIS EVENING.
MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUENCE FROM SPEED MAX
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FAR WEST TEXAS AND SE NEW MEXICO AND NOSE OF
LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE FROM MENTIONED NORTH TEXAS MCV AND ONGOING/EXPECTED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SRN TEXAS. REGARDLESS...WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL JET AND OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS IN SEVERAL DAYS...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOST
GUIDANCE BUT WILL KEEP POPS FROM DEVIATING TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE. CONVECTION INITIATING OVER WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF BODY OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BUT FURTHER
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR CAPROCK WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
GREATEST CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY STILL APPEAR TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA LATE TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT BECAUSE MUCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE OVER AREAS
EAST OF WHERE HEAVY RAIN TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED...WE WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE-44 AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS JUST
EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND WEAK CAPPING/MOISTURE REMAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 64 80 64 / 40 60 60 30
HOBART OK 77 63 83 64 / 40 60 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 66 83 65 / 50 60 60 30
GAGE OK 78 60 83 61 / 40 50 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 63 82 63 / 50 50 50 20
DURANT OK 81 66 79 67 / 40 60 70 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR DEL RIO WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. NUMEROUS RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ARE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SFC DEW PTS WERE BEGINNING TO MAKE
A SLOW RECOVERY AND WERE NOW APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AGAIN. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF SE TX WHILE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA IS RAIN FREE. SOME DECENT RAINFALL
TOTALS YET AGAIN TODAY WITH 3-4 INCH TOTALS FROM BURTON TO WALLER
AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM CENTRAL TRINITY COUNTY ACROSS NORTHERN POLK
COUNTY. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD SWATH OF 850 MB MSTR
FROM CRP TO LCH. AN 850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE OK WITH A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SW. AT 700 MB...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS
CONFINED TO EXTREME SE TX INTO SW LA AND A 700 MB LOW WAS STACKED
OVER THE 850 MB LOW IN SE OK. THE 500 MB LOW WAS ALSO OVER SE OK
WITH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LA. AT 300
MB...WINDS SPLIT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE NOTED OVER
EAST TEXAS AND MOST OF LA.
THUS FAR TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND RAP 13 HAVE INITIALIZED BEST AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN BEGIN
TO REDEVELOP AROUND 08Z AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND APPROACHES SE TX. THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SE AND MERGE WITH STORMS OVER LOUISIANA THAT WILL
LIKELY BE BACKBUILDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE TX
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL RAISE POPS AFTER
06Z FOR THE EXTREME SE. WILL FRESHEN UP THE FFA AND EXTEND THE
WATCH TO NOON WEDNESDAY. NEW ZONES OUT 930 PM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW AT 23Z WAS OVER THE RED RIVER APPROACHING THE
ARKLATX. THE FORECAST MODELS MOVE THE LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN LA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SE TX.
MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. ONE OTHER RISK TO CONSIDER
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE AIR
FIELDS. THE NAM12 AND RAP13 MODELS WERE VERIFYING THE BEST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BOTH BRING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KCLL
AND KUTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z...AND TO KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND
KSGR BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. THE MODELS WERE SETTING UP A LONGER TERM
THUNDERSTORM EVEN FOR THE COASTAL SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 17Z.
WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
WIND DIRECTIONS OR SPEEDS GIVEN THE MESO-SCALE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 83 69 85 70 / 80 60 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 84 70 84 70 / 60 60 40 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 82 73 82 75 / 60 60 40 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE ON THE
MOVE TO THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MOST ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN THE LOW CENTER CROSSES INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS...PLACING NORTH TEXAS IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION REGARDING LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM NORTH
TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT EAST AND NORTHEAST GATES OF DFW TRACON FOR A SHORT
WHILE LONGER BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN OK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXTRAPOLATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CELLS ...ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR DATA INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
REACHING WESTERN COUNTIES 02-03Z...THEN THE METROPLEX JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE MAY MOVE UP THE TIMING OF VCTS FROM 10Z TO 07Z OR 08Z
BASED ON THIS DATA. SIMILAR TIMING IS ANTICIPATED FOR WACO AND WE
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS AT KACT AS WELL BEGINNING 07Z OR
08Z.WE MAY HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ADDITION OF A TEMPO
GROUP...OPTING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TRENDS UPSTREAM PLAY OUT.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE ADDITION OF VCTS
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMPLEX SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE LARGELY SHUT OFF FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF A CANTON...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE LINE THROUGH
SUNSET. IT IS BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT IT MAKES SENSE THAT
THE WESTERN ZONES THAT ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME SUN ARE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE TO DESTABILIZE AND SEE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND MOST BASINS
ARE VERY DRY AND CAN TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF WATER. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO CELL TRAINING...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WE STILL EXPECT
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN A WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARM
UP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING SUN AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT SOME 90S TO RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY
THE LAST DAY OF MAY. SINCE THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
79
79
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND MOST BASINS
ARE VERY DRY AND CAN TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF WATER. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO CELL TRAINING...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WE STILL EXPECT
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN A WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARM
UP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING SUN AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT SOME 90S TO RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY
THE LAST DAY OF MAY. SINCE THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
79
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 69 81 66 88 70 / 60 70 40 20 30
WACO, TX 69 82 67 86 66 / 50 70 40 20 30
PARIS, TX 68 78 64 82 66 / 50 70 60 20 30
DENTON, TX 70 82 64 86 65 / 70 70 40 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 69 79 64 85 65 / 60 70 50 20 30
DALLAS, TX 69 82 68 85 70 / 60 70 40 20 30
TERRELL, TX 69 80 64 85 67 / 50 70 60 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 68 81 67 83 67 / 50 70 60 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 70 84 67 84 65 / 40 60 40 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 82 64 83 65 / 70 60 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAFS ACROSS SE TX THE NEXT 6-9 HRS WILL BE A VERY CHAOTIC WITH
POSSIBLY LOTS OF AMMENDMENTS. FIRST WATCHING CONVECTION OVER C TX
WHICH SHOULD IMPACT KCLL THE NEXT 1-4HRS. SFC OBS BEHIND THE LINE
OF STORMS WHICH IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A MCV DO HAVE WINDS FROM THE
NW BEHIND THE STORM WITH A DECENT COLD POOL. POSSIBLE THIS LINE OF
STORMS COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS KUTS/KCXO AND KIAH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT BUT WILL AMMEND TO TSRA AS
STORMS INCH CLOSER. STORMS COMING FROM THE SW WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT
KSGR SO WILL START WITH VCTS AT 19Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
KHOU/KLBX/KGLS ALL ARE A BIG QUESTION. WRF/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE ARE
NOT ALL THAT USEFUL. HRRR SEEMS TO FILL IN CONVECTION BETWEEN
STORMS TO THE SW AND LINE OVER C TX. LOCATIONS ARE OFF QUITE A BIT
BUT ACCOUNTING FOR THESE DIFFERENCES MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS/TSRA TO
THESE TAFS. AGAIN WILL PROBABLY MONITOR AND AMMEND IF NECESSARY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS HAVE A BREAK IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH
NAM/WRF-ARW ETC SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FOR TUE MORNING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PCPN OUT WEST STILL HOLDING TOGETHER THIS LATE MORNING AND BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE GRIDS TO INCREASE POP
NUMBERS FOR THE CWA THIS AFTN. LINGERING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AT/
AROUND JACKSON COUNTY PROVING TO BE THE WINNER SO FAR TODAY WITH
REGARD TO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
THE LAST FULL WORK WEEK OF MAY IS SETTING UP TO BE WET FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ALONG THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO TWO
INCHES)... FAVORABLE/SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND THE VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST WILL CARRY THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THINK THAT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COULD
EASILY REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY IN AND AROUND MUCH OF THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA.
FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THIS
EVENT. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER OUR
AREA AS THE WEEK COMES TO AN END...SO WILL GO WITH ONLY GRADUALLY
LOWERING POPS AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 71 83 70 83 / 40 40 60 50 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 72 84 71 84 / 40 40 50 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 75 83 74 83 / 20 20 30 40 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. STRONGEST CONVECTION RIGHT NOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
AND LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. KEPT VCSH REMARKS AT LRD FOR NOW THOUGH. ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO THE VFR BY THE MID/LATE MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AROUND
00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE DOWN TO 1.2
INCHES. BUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 12Z MONDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THR BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN
A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY TO NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP NEAR A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE REGION OF
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MOIST INFLOW INTO THIS REGION
WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. 23Z HRRR MODEL
SEEM TO REPRESENT CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...AND SHOWS BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY UNTIL AROUND 06Z
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTH TEXAS. RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT AFTER 06Z FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND. EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS REGION TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE. MAY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT LRD THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES
BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST...INCREASING
STABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN STORMS...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REACH ALI-CRP-VCT. IN ANY OF THE STORMS NEAR
LRD...GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...CLIPPING
NORTHERN AREAS FROM ALI-VCT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ACTIVITY FOR THE TAF
SITES FOR NOW.
OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENT...MVFR/VFR CIG MIX EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING FROM EAST TO WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME
FROM 14Z-17Z...WITH SE WIND 15-20KT DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 89 74 89 74 / 10 20 10 30 10
VICTORIA 71 87 72 89 72 / 20 30 20 40 10
LAREDO 76 98 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
ALICE 73 91 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 75 84 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 72 92 71 95 72 / 30 20 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 75 91 74 92 74 / 10 20 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
WAKE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OCCURRING EARLIER HAVE SETTLED DOWN FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE DFW METRO AND A
DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY. WITH BOUNDARIES AROUND AND AN MCV
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...ABOUT ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN AND EVEN HIGH
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE STRUGGLING AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO.
WILL CARRY VCSH OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT MORE
AFTER SUNRISE AT DFW ONCE STRONG LATE MAY SUN FIRST RISES. HOWEVER...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TO 10 KTS OR
SLIGHTLY MORE WILL HELP MIX OUT TO MULTIPLE LAYER VFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW AFTERNOON...BOUNDARIES
AND HEATING WILL LIKELY INITIATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING HEAVIER RAINFALL IN AND NEAR THE AIRPORTS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS MEMORIAL DAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH SUNSET UPON US AND WITH THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NOW MUCH
LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WE
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING
AND OCCASIONAL NON-SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
ACTIVITY HEADING TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM HILLSBORO TO
TEMPLE.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECTED SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CONCHO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BUT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS A WEAK WAVE
PROPAGATES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY START TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION REACHING EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TEXAS MAY BE IN A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND REACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL LINGER SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION AND LINGERING MOISTURE.
OVERALL...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS.
THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD HELP EASE THE GRIP OF THE DROUGHT...
ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOT DAYS OF LATE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 83 69 82 69 / 30 20 50 60 50
WACO, TX 68 84 69 79 69 / 60 20 40 60 50
PARIS, TX 65 82 65 77 65 / 20 20 40 60 60
DENTON, TX 67 82 69 81 66 / 30 20 50 60 50
MCKINNEY, TX 66 82 68 78 66 / 20 20 50 60 60
DALLAS, TX 71 85 69 80 68 / 30 20 40 60 60
TERRELL, TX 68 83 67 77 66 / 30 20 40 60 60
CORSICANA, TX 69 84 68 78 68 / 30 20 30 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 69 83 69 81 68 / 60 30 40 60 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 81 65 80 65 / 50 40 60 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BY THE WEEKEND...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUING TO SHOW RAPID
DISSIPATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...EVEN ACROSS WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND THIS APPEARS
MORE LIKELY NOW THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FURTHER UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN KY ALSO RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.
HAVE JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...
AND A MOIST GROUND FROM EARLIER RAINS...SOME LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE...AND
HAVE INSERTED THIS INTO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE LEFT REMAINDER OF GRIDS FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MUGGY
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. LOWS SHOULD RANG FROM THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE WEST...TO LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT EDGES CLOSER. MODELS DEPICT A BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORT TRACKING OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT OF VA WED AFTERNOON. WESTERLY COMPONENT MAY ACT HINDER
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE BCB-ROA CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE CHANCES HERE...FROM LEWISBURG TO LYNCHBURG. HIGH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT TRICKY GIVEN COMPRESSIONAL WARMING VERSUS CLOUD COVER.
WENT TOWARD MET MOS WITH AROUND 90 FROM THE THE NC FOOTHILLS EAST
TO SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH UPPER 80S LYH-ROA...AND LOWER TO MID 80S
WEST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED
NIGHT AS THE FRONT EDGES CLOSER AND ANOTHER PIECE OF VORT ENERGY
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT INTO WV BY 12Z THU. KEPT HIGHER POPS OVER THE
NORTH TO CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. LOWS AGAIN WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWER TO
MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE
TX/LA/MS REGION...A 588DM UPPER RIDGE RELATIVELY STATIONARY IN THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...AND A DEEP UPPER LOW SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATER SYSTEM
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER
TX/LA WILL DISSIPATE AND THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION/MOISTURE WILL
DRIFT BACK SW INTO THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM
NW-SE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH TIME FOCUSED MORE ACROSS SW VA/NW NC AS
THE MARITIME AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. AS WITH
WED...DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AT BEST AND ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. AT THIS POINT...THU APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
DAY TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS AS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE NE/MID-ATLANTIC UPPER LOW ADVECTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FAR SW VA AND THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC AND CONFINED TO FAR SW PARTS OF THE CWA NEAREST
THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
INCREASINGLY LIMITED EVEN IN THESE AREAS. MAIN CONCERN
AGAIN...MAINLY THU...WILL BE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE...PROBABLY LESS
LIKELY THAN TUE/WED BECAUSE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
MARITIME FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THU/FRI...WITH A WARMING TREND TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPANDS
EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
YESTERDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF WERE AT ODDS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE
MOISTURE WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE GFS HAS NOW
COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF INDICATING THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA...AT LEAST WESTERN AREAS...AS QUICKLY AS MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS...THEN AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUE.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH HAD
REASONABLE HIGH CHC POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHC POPS EAST.
850MB TEMPS SHOWING A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE. BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
PIEDMONT FLIRTING WITH THE +20C MARK...WITH WIDESPREAD +18C ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS.
WITH AN UNDERLYING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION...DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS...BUT ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASINGLY
HOT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN MOST
AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE IF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IMPACT FOG FORMATION. THINK SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO MINIMIZE OVERALL THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE KLWB/KBCB/KLYH/KDAN
INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING AND
MOIST GROUND FROM RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.
ANY FOG WILL RAPIDLY LIFT/DISSIPATE WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING
ON WEDNESDAY...TO FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY WHERE TOWERING CUMULUS
REDEVELOPS IN MOST AREAS BY MID-LATE MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSRA IN MOUNTAINS BY/AROUND 16Z/NOON EDT...AND
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY/AROUND 20Z/4PM EDT. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY AREA AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE AS A
PREDOMINATE GROUP...JUST MENTION OF VCTS.
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES SUCH
AS KLWB/KBCB/KLYH. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP/WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1033 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA IS SHORTWAVE THAT IS VERY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE BEING LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT. THE
AREA SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS AND WAUTOMA ARE BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE RAIN LIFTED OFF TO THEIR
NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MANITOWOC
LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR RESIDES OVER THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE THE
WEAK COOL FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT THINK THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION WILL BE SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND THE REST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASING CLOUD
TREND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT.
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DEPART CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM
A HUDSON BAY HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
KEEPS HIGHS COMPARATIVELY COOLER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL
PROVIDE VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF MAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR THE START OF JUNE.
UPPER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COOLER
READINGS ALONG LAKE MICH AND THE BAY WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY
WIND. THE DRIER AIR MASS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME
LARGE RANGES IN MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...24 HOUR TRENDS
HAVE INDICATED A SLOW DOWN. THE GEM WAS THE QUICKEST WITH
PRODUCING SOME QPF OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE INCLUDING PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GEM WERE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. THESE TIMING ISSUES MAGNIFY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
TOWARD MONDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS SUPPORTS MORE PRECIPITATION.
BLEND OF THE RUNS THEN INDICATE THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AGAIN
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
DRY AIR ORIGINATING WITH THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING TOWARD THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE SW PART OF THE RGN
SHOULD END. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
WATCHING BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS NW SAUK COUNTY. NO REPORTS
OF GUSTY WINDS UPSTREAM...AND WHILE REAR INFLOW SIGNATURE IS
IMPRESSIVE...VELOCITY UP AT 3500-4000 FT OFF ARX AND MKX RADARS
AROUND 39 KTS WOULD KEEP GUSTS BELOW SEVERE.
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES/HOUR WITH CONVECTION
IN SE GREEN CO. ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCK CO....WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL
THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD WARNING THERE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE APPARENT LAST LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
TOWARD DANE COUNTY TO SEE IF IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. ANY MORE HEAVY
RAIN ADDED TO THE FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER HEADLINE. RIGHT NOW...THE HRRR AND RUC ARE
INDICATING THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS AT EASTERN TAF SITES
...DROPPING AT TIMES TO IFR WITH COOL ONSHORE NE FLOW...WITH VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE WEST WHERE IT IS NOT RAINING/THUNDERING.
RAPID UPDATE /HI-RES MODELS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN.
PLAN TO KEEP ALL SITES AT MVFR UNTIL THE MID-OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY...REDUCING THE LAKE INFLUENCE IN THE
EAST...AND BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR INTO KMSN. SHORT TERM MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SW OF TAF
SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WILL ASSESS REST OF 00Z DATA TO SEE IF
THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING GIVEN EXTRA PUSH IN ERN WI DUE TO CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AND THE COLDER LAKE WATERS. BOUNDARY LINED UP MORE OR LESS
FROM THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA EXTENDING NW TOWARDS THE DELLS. VERY
LITTLE WIND UPSTAIRS WITH UPPER FLOW NOT DOING MUCH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND NEITHER IS 0-6KM SHEAR. PLENTY OF WATER
IN THE COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 PER SPC
MESO PAGE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE LIGHT AND CURVED SO MAIN CONCERN IS POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 4KM SPC WRF SUGGESTING A
FAIRLY RAPID DROPOFF IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WHILE THE HRRR IS LENDING
CREDENCE TO THE WEAK SUPPORT FROM RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IN SRN MN. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS STORMS GOING MUCH LATER IN THE EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES LOSS OF HEATING AND A GRADUAL
SOUTHWESTWARD SINKING OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN A LOWERING OF POPS AND
TRENDING THE POPS SW WITH TIME. HOWEVER GIVEN HELP OF SOME WEAK PIVA INTO
WRN WI ASSOC WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO LINGER POPS LONGER THAN
MY ORIGINAL THOUGHTS. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRIER AIR STARTING
TO WORK IN FROM THE NE.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES LINGER PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LINGERING FORCING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WILL CARRY SOME POPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THEN GO DRY IN THE
AFTERNOON CWA WIDE WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING
HIGH TAKING HOLD.
WEDENSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A VERY QUIET...VERY PLEASANT STRETCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES KEEPING A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LAKE MICHIGAN COOLING MACHINE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY HIT THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS AT
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THOSE LOWS
WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE OF COURSE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO TAKES SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES.
IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT/TROF TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL IN THE AREA
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES
AND THE TIMING IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS/ECMWF.
BUT...THE SIMILAR MESSAGE IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITHIN A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. 4KM WRF AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS. WILL
LINGER SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HELP FROM WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACRS MN/IA. SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT A DRYER DAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
635 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA IS SHORTWAVE THAT IS VERY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE BEING LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT. THE
AREA SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS AND WAUTOMA ARE BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE RAIN LIFTED OFF TO THEIR
NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MANITOWOC
LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR RESIDES OVER THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE THE
WEAK COOL FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT THINK THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION WILL BE SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND THE REST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASING CLOUD
TREND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT.
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DEPART CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM
A HUDSON BAY HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
KEEPS HIGHS COMPARATIVELY COOLER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL
PROVIDE VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF MAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR THE START OF JUNE.
UPPER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COOLER
READINGS ALONG LAKE MICH AND THE BAY WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY
WIND. THE DRIER AIR MASS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME
LARGE RANGES IN MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...24 HOUR TRENDS
HAVE INDICATED A SLOW DOWN. THE GEM WAS THE QUICKEST WITH
PRODUCING SOME QPF OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE INCLUDING PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GEM WERE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. THESE TIMING ISSUES MAGNIFY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
TOWARD MONDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS SUPPORTS MORE PRECIPITATION.
BLEND OF THE RUNS THEN INDICATE THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AGAIN
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
DRY AIR ORIGINATING WITH THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING TOWARD THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THAT WL BRING AN END TO ANY SHRA...AND SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT POSITIONED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
75+ KT JET STREAK AND BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THOUGH...DESPITE ML CAPES INCREASING
TO GREATER THAN 800 J/KG...COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE...THUS HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP DOWN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE SO ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY LOW. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
LITTLE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE COOL FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BECOME HARD TO DISCERN BY THE TIME IT POSSIBLY
REACHES CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUE. SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT UNTIL DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. WITH SUCH LIGHT WIND FIELDS
ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING CONVERGENCE PRODUCING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS THAT
MOVES EAST INTO THE STATE AND HELPS PRODUCE AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELEVATED
CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
PLACE THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS REMAIN
UNDER 20 KTS ALOFT...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FURTHER NORTH. WITH SUCH
A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD HAVE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL NOT RESIDE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SO PWATS WILL REMAIN
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL DROP
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH SHOULD BE BREACHED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
(STILL RATHER WEAK) DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA...AM THINKING
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY SO DROPPED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE DRIER AIR DOES START TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL END PRECIP
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIKE TODAY...WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL. BUT ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PROGS DIMINISH THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR A DRY PERIOD. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
PIECES OF ENERGY CAN WORK OVER THE RIDGE AND THEN SLIP INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW MODELS HINT OF A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVER THE FAR NROTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MILD DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK BUT WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW...COOLER READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE BAY
AND LAKESHORE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THOUGH THE RADAR IS LARGELY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...THE TREND WILL BE
FOR INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STORMS. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT
CONDITIONS AS VFR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...REACHING RHI LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAN FARTHER NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME...WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS POPPING UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AS WELL...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG A COOL FRONT. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER TOP THE RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL VEER AND ALLOW DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT. BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE NIGHT WARMER AND MORE MUGGY THAN
THE PAST FEW.
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OVER NE
MINNESOTA...A MOISTURE-LADEN AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES. UPPER FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 65KT JET STREAK AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN 80/65 PARCEL WILL GENERATE 1300
J/KG OF ML CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE FALLS TO ABOUT 900 J/KG USING A
77/62 PARCEL. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY SKINNY...THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO THE HIGH PWATS AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION. SO ANTICIPATE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A PERSISENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUCKLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS UPPER RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTAINING HIGHER PWATS
WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PROGGED TO STRUGGLE TO WORK OVER
THE REBUILDING RIDGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM OR
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN...SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SINCE IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD AGAIN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER MORE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A DRIER FORECAST
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY WORK OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALTER THIS WEEK BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. AS MENTIONED THESE TRENDS
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD WILL
ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL TIME THE
FRONT WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
DRY STABLE AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY EDGING OUT OF THE
AREA...AS MOISTURE AXIS TO THE W WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD.
COULD SEE SOME SHRA LATE TNGT AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE.
BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCR IN SHRA AND SOME TSRA TOMORROW AS DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
321 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER 2 INCHES FROM CHEYENNE
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO
REGENERATE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE (MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG)
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE REGION OF BEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1200-1500
J/KG) SOUTHEAST OF A LARAMIE...TO SCOTTSBLUFF TO CHADRON LINE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF KIMBALL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO
BACK BUILD AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO TO START DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASED
INSTABILITY. 18Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z...BUT HANGS ON TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST COMING OUT OF THE CASPER AREA. PROBLEM
IS...HRRR HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH MID EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW...DEEP LAYERED DRYSLOT (AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO UTAH)
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WITH LOWER TO MAYBE
EVEN A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT PROCESS
ABOVE 9000 FT...AND WILL CAUSE RISES AND AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT
ON SOME RIVERS IN THE WEST (PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC
DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH PRECIP COVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PULL UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE THE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT WEST. ECMWF MOST BULLISH ON
QPF WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS RAINFALL MAINLY OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP GETS GOING. ECMWF HAS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA ALL THE
WAY UP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. GFS PWATS OVER RAWLINS
INCREASES FROM ROUGHLY .45 INCHES TO OVER .60 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MODERATE CU DEVELOPMENT ALREADY THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO START
TSTMS EARLIER HERE AT KCYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONVECTION BLOOMING OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 21Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 01Z OR SO. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. FUELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GREEN UP AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOW PACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE RIVER
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE MOST
GAUGE SITES ARE NOW IN FLOOD WARNINGS. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER RAIN ON SNOW EVENT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARMON
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1124 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MODERATE CU DEVELOPMENT ALREADY THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO START
TSTMS EARLIER HERE AT KCYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONVECTION BLOOMING OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 21Z TIMEFRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 01Z OR SO. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY...BUT THIS MAY BE LIFTED SOON
AS ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATCH AREA. REFER
TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......GARMON
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY......HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1053 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
ABOUT TO RELEASE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. 14Z HRRR MODEL IS SUGGESTING STORMS MAY FORM IN
THE CASPER AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DOUGLAS LUSK AREAS BEFORE SUNSET. ALSO INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE MUDDY GAP...RAWLINS...MEDICINE BOW AREAS WHERE
SOME CUMULUS IS ALREADY FORMING. ALSO RAISED HOURLY TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UP THROUGH THE DOUGLAS
AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AND LOWER DEGREE OF MECHANICAL
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT
FASTER...BUT STILL THINK WHAT WE HAVE ADVERTISED FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY IS IN THE BALLPARK SO NO CHANGES THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM DGW TO LAR THROUGH 14Z. WEBCAMS FROM ACROSS CARBON AND
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTIES SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AS DO A FEW
RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK LLVL
UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE FOG FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE MIXING KICKS IN
BY MID MORNING. ALSO REMOVED EARLY AM POPS FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH
A CLEAR RADAR SCREEN. KEPT ISO POPS GOING AFTER 16Z AS A FEW ECHOS
ARE SHOWING UP ON HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...BUT EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE IN AFTN. CANCELLED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BANNER
COUNTY AS EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER TSTMS HAS ENDED. CLOUD
TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH RIBBONS OF CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
LLVL CUMULUS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LOACATIONS EAST OF KLAR. CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD INTO TAFS
JUST YET AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WILL TRY TO
NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING ON THE 18Z TAFS. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR MISSING HYDRO SECTION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
643 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM DGW TO LAR THROUGH 14Z. WEBCAMS FROM ACROSS CARBON AND
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTIES SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AS DO A FEW
RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK LLVL
UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE FOG FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE MIXING KICKS IN
BY MID MORNING. ALSO REMOVED EARLY AM POPS FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH
A CLEAR RADAR SCREEN. KEPT ISO POPS GOING AFTER 16Z AS A FEW ECHOS
ARE SHOWING UP ON HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...BUT EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE IN AFTN. CANCELLED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BANNER
COUNTY AS EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER TSTMS HAS ENDED. CLOUD
TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH RIBBONS OF CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
LLVL CUMULUS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LOACATIONS EAST OF KLAR. CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD INTO TAFS
JUST YET AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WILL TRY TO
NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING ON THE 18Z TAFS. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY...BUT THIS MAY BE LIFTED SOON
AS ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATCH AREA. REFER
TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
511 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LOACATIONS EAST OF KLAR. CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD INTO TAFS
JUST YET AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WILL TRY TO
NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING ON THE 18Z TAFS. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
427 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06 TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLAR THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT ACTIVITY MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY...BUT THIS MAY BE LIFTED SOON
AS ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATCH AREA. REFER
TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
CONVECTION RIDING OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS EASTERN AL IS
APPROACHING THE STATE LINE. THE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
STORMS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO
CONTINUE.
HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE SE. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEHAVING LARGELY AS EXPECTED
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF STRATUS DECK
OVER WEST GEORGIA. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY POTENTIAL FOR
RECOVERY OVER WEST GEORGIA AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM COULD
LEAD TO A RESURGENCE IN CAPE VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE FAVORED WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS THE MOST PLENTIFUL.
ONCE STORMS DIE OFF LATE THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WRT THE STRATUS DECKS FORMING AND THIS ROUND
OF MODELS SHOWS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL AS WELL. KEPT SKY GRIDS
HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE BUT STOPPED SHORT OF INCLUDING
LOW OVERCAST FOR NOW.
DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF OF STRATUS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED. IF STRATUS IS UNABLE TO
FORM...WEST GA WILL BE FAVORED FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST CREATES SLIGHT DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM ATHENS TO MACON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. JUST CANT RID OURSELVES OF THE MARGINALLY
LARGE LAPSE RATES OR THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO STRONG STORMS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEESE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THUS CURRENT
FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH...THE
COMBINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH MAY
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH FEATURES OF LONG
TERM. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND BROAD MOISTURE FIELD WILL SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS OVERNIGHT AS
DISTINGUISHING LOCATIONS OF HIGHER OR LOWER CHANCES IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE SINCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ON WHERE OLD OUTFLOWS OR OTHER BOUNDARIES END UP FROM
PREVIOUS EVENING ACTIVITY...THEN BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN AFTER
ACTION GETS GOING. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EACH DAY WITH LOW END MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CAN EXPECT SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG INTENSITIES AND A FEW COULD
BE SEVERE.
AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BEGIN TAKING OVER BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE SFC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY SERVE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECREASED SOME POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND STILL LOOKING A BIT TOO HIGH FOR LATE
WEEK MAX VALUES GIVEN CLOUD COVERAGE SO BUMPED DOWN A BIT.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND NO MORE IS EXPECTED AT THE
TAFS THROUGH THIS MORNING. LIGHT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE CSG/MCN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING IN AND NEAR THESE AREAS.
CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ITEMS
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 88 64 90 / 30 30 30 40
ATLANTA 69 85 68 88 / 40 30 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 80 58 84 / 30 30 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 65 85 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
COLUMBUS 69 86 67 89 / 70 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 66 85 66 87 / 30 30 30 40
MACON 67 87 64 89 / 50 40 40 40
ROME 65 84 63 88 / 30 40 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 88 / 40 40 30 40
VIDALIA 69 89 70 90 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
241 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1022 PM CDT
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO FESTER EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE HAVE A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. OFF OF
THE OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS...A FEW NEW CELLS MAY
SPARK...PRIMARILY SOUTH TOWARD LEE...OGLE...AND DEKALB COUNTIES
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS A LITTLE MORE UNTAPPED.
WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE FRONT ARE MAINLY NOT SHOWING ANY
FOG...HOWEVER THE MARINE LAYER IS CLEARING MAKING INROADS BASED ON
LOW CIGS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE DENSE FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE SOON. THIS COULD
STICK AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING PARTS OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
321 PM CDT
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND A THE PROGRESSION OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH
NEAR-DAILY LAKE BREEZES AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS OVER THE AREA AS THE REGION
IS UNDER A WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA AS
WELL AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRACKING PUSHING THROUGH SERN WI AT
ISSUANCE TIME. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION TO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS MOSTLY STILL OVER SRN
WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW ISOLD CELLS OVER NRN IL. EXPECT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NRN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
NO SGFNT SHEAR...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 ON THE 12Z DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. THE OTHER CONCERN THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON THUNDER
POTENTIAL. WATCHING THE FRONT WORK DOWN THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP 20 DEGREES OR MORE WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKEFRONT TO THE MIDDLE 60S INLAND. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FROPA...IF IT OCCURS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP ALMOST 30 DEGREES ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKEFRONT. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
HAVE HUNG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...MORE IN DEFERENCE TO SOME
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE AREA RATHER THAN THE FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW WITH THE COLD STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC FLOW OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE OFF OF THE LAKE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA OF BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER... THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WOULD KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR
LATE MAY...WITH COASTAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AND THE SOUTH MID-LAKE BUOY STILL INDICATING WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. SO...LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS. WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND PCPN FOLLOWING THE FROPA...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE LAKEFRONT REMAINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INLAND
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. GENERAL RIDGING
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE GENERAL SFC TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN AND THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY
WARM UP WITH THE REST OF THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL
SPREAD UP TO THE LAKE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY...THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TUESDAY...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP IN ADVANCE OF
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERTOPS THE
UPPER RIDGE.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR AND LOWER CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMING VFR.
* RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW FESTERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF TSRA TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING THOUGH AND EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WORKED OVER AIR AND
OUTFLOW RUSHES AHEAD. IN FACT...WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW AT ORD...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOWER CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SITES NEAR THE
LAKE REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVERNIGHT...THEN CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES WILL BE BETTER SOUTH OF I-80 NEAR THE
FRONT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN LIFT/SCATTERING BACK TO IFR BY MID TO LATE WED MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EAST FLOW LIKELY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
241 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY MODEST NORTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LAKE AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND THE
DRIER NORTH FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE AND PUSH THE FOG FURTHER SOUTH.
IT DOES APPEAR THE FOG WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED SO
WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG TO CLEAR OUT
BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE NEAR HUDSON
BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR LAKE BREEZES TO FORM TURNING WINDS ONSHORE IN SOME OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 AM CDT Wed May 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 225 AM CDT Wed May 28 2014
Regional radar imagery fairly quiet early this morning, although a
few showers continue to percolate between Macomb and Peoria as of
2 am. A weak boundary was present but hard to detect on surface
observations, but is roughly along a Quincy to Kankakee line.
However, a more prominent cold front was located from just north
of Detroit into southern Wisconsin, with a boundary extending
southwest into Kansas. The ever-present cutoff upper low has now
made it to the Arklatex region, and shows up nicely on infrared as
well as water vapor imagery.
The diurnal trend for showers and storms will still be in place
for another day or so. A couple days of dry weather actually are
possible before the showers and storms return early next week. The
summer like temperatures will continue for several more days,
although Friday and Saturday are likely to be somewhat less humid.
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday:
The cold front will be settling southward today, and should be
near I-70 by midnight. Increasing lift toward midday should allow
for the next round of showers and storms to blossom, persisting
into the afternoon. North half of the forecast area most likely to
see the most numerous storms, while the southeast remains rather
scattered with the front not arriving until evening. Shear values
remain weak, only around 10 knots or so from 0-6km, although
instability is more modest with CAPE`s reaching 1000-1500 J/kg.
Severe weather chances remain low, but we have seen some isolated
wind gusts/damage over the last couple days in a similar
environment. Latest SPC Day1 outlook does show low 5%
probabilities of severe winds/damage across the eastern CWA.
High pressure will extend southwest from the Great Lakes over the
next couple days, gradually shoving the threat for diurnal
convection further south. Have kept the northern third of the
forecast area dry for Thursday and Friday, with some PoP`s further
south on Thursday. Most of the models have the entire forecast
area dry by Friday, but the ECMWF and GFS continue to feature
showers and storms along the periphery of the high just outside of
our forecast area, so have kept some 20% PoP`s along the southwest
edge of the CWA on Friday.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday:
A nice start to the weekend is on tap with the upper ridge
basically overhead, but this continues to be progged to break down
through the period. The first part of Sunday is also likely to be
dry as well. However, showers and storms will increase as a warm
front sets up from the central Plains into Wisconsin. As this will
be roughly parallel to the upper flow for a couple days, the rain
chances will linger into mid week.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
A narrow corridor of convection from Decatur to Champaign and
Danville has begun to diminish in coverage and intensity and
advance toward Indiana between 04z-05z. A line of spotty showers
SW of there between SPI and DEC were diminishing quickly as well.
The remainder of the night should remain dry for the terminal
sites, based on satellite, radar, and the latest 4km HRRR output.
The next wave of showers and storms should primarily hold off
until afternoon on Wednesday. PIA and BMI could see storms in the
vicinity as early as 18z, as a weak cold front arrives from the
north. Storm chances would progressively advance toward the
southern terminal sites of SPI and DEC by 20z. MVFR conditions
will be possible during any heavy downpours for reduced
visibility. Ceilings should remain VFR even during storms.
Increasing low level instability could allow for a few storms
tomorrow afternoon to produce wind gusts of 40-50 mph and small
hail.
The rest of tonight, winds should remain light southwest or calm
through sunrise. Wind directions will become variable as the cold
front arrives tomorrow, then winds should become east-northeast
after the front passes to the south of each TAF site. The weak
pressure gradient should help keep wind speeds at 10kt or less for
the entire TAF period, outside of thunderstorms.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1022 PM CDT
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO FESTER EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE HAVE A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. OFF OF
THE OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS...A FEW NEW CELLS MAY
SPARK...PRIMARILY SOUTH TOWARD LEE...OGLE...AND DEKALB COUNTIES
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS A LITTLE MORE UNTAPPED.
WEBCAMS NEAR THE LAKE FRONT ARE MAINLY NOT SHOWING ANY
FOG...HOWEVER THE MARINE LAYER IS CLEARING MAKING INROADS BASED ON
LOW CIGS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE DENSE FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE SOON. THIS COULD
STICK AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING PARTS OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
321 PM CDT
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND A THE PROGRESSION OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH
NEAR-DAILY LAKE BREEZES AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS OVER THE AREA AS THE REGION
IS UNDER A WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA AS
WELL AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRACKING PUSHING THROUGH SERN WI AT
ISSUANCE TIME. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION TO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS MOSTLY STILL OVER SRN
WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW ISOLD CELLS OVER NRN IL. EXPECT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NRN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
NO SGFNT SHEAR...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 ON THE 12Z DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. THE OTHER CONCERN THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON THUNDER
POTENTIAL. WATCHING THE FRONT WORK DOWN THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP 20 DEGREES OR MORE WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKEFRONT TO THE MIDDLE 60S INLAND. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FROPA...IF IT OCCURS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP ALMOST 30 DEGREES ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKEFRONT. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
HAVE HUNG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...MORE IN DEFERENCE TO SOME
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE AREA RATHER THAN THE FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW WITH THE COLD STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC FLOW OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE OFF OF THE LAKE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA OF BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER... THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WOULD KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR
LATE MAY...WITH COASTAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AND THE SOUTH MID-LAKE BUOY STILL INDICATING WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. SO...LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS. WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND PCPN FOLLOWING THE FROPA...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE THE LAKEFRONT REMAINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INLAND
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND THE LAKEFRONT ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. GENERAL RIDGING
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE GENERAL SFC TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN AND THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY
WARM UP WITH THE REST OF THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL
SPREAD UP TO THE LAKE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY...THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TUESDAY...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP IN ADVANCE OF
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERTOPS THE
UPPER RIDGE.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR AND LOWER CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMING VFR.
* RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW FESTERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF TSRA TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING THOUGH AND EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WORKED OVER AIR AND
OUTFLOW RUSHES AHEAD. IN FACT...WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW AT ORD...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOWER CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SITES NEAR THE
LAKE REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVERNIGHT...THEN CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES WILL BE BETTER SOUTH OF I-80 NEAR THE
FRONT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN LIFT/SCATTERING BACK TO IFR BY MID TO LATE WED MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EAST FLOW LIKELY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
253 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS DURATION OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR IS ONLY
SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...ITS LIKELY THAT THERE IS DENSE FOG
THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND THE
NEARSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT. PRESENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF VARIABLE VISIBILITY...BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SOLID DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH
HALF UNTIL 9Z AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE IL AND NW IN NEARSHORE
UNTIL 9Z.
MODERATE NORTHERLY AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS CONTROLLED BY LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCES NEAR THE SHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
SATURDAY AND COULD INCREASE TO UP TO 15 TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Diurnal stabilization has caused the majority of showers/storms to
dissipate. A few showers or storms have continued to bubble up on
outflow boundaries from earlier convection, but coverage is very
sparse and mainly along I-72 northeast of Decatur. Will keep
slight chance PoPs in the forecast for the overnight, but most
areas will remain dry.
Temps will remain on the warm side again tonight as lows bottom
out in the mid 60s. Humidity levels will be higher as dewpoints
climb into the upper 50s to around 60. The weak pressure gradient
across the area will keep winds light from the southwest or
variable.
The only updates this evening were to the weather and PoP grids.
The latest info will be sent shortly.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
A narrow corridor of convection from Decatur to Champaign and
Danville has begun to diminish in coverage and intensity and
advance toward Indiana between 04z-05z. A line of spotty showers
SW of there between SPI and DEC were diminishing quickly as well.
The remainder of the night should remain dry for the terminal
sites, based on satellite, radar, and the latest 4km HRRR output.
The next wave of showers and storms should primarily hold off
until afternoon on Wednesday. PIA and BMI could see storms in the
vicinity as early as 18z, as a weak cold front arrives from the
north. Storm chances would progressively advance toward the
southern terminal sites of SPI and DEC by 20z. MVFR conditions
will be possible during any heavy downpours for reduced
visibility. Ceilings should remain VFR even during storms.
Increasing low level instability could allow for a few storms
tomorrow afternoon to produce wind gusts of 40-50 mph and small
hail.
The rest of tonight, winds should remain light southwest or calm
through sunrise. Wind directions will become variable as the cold
front arrives tomorrow, then winds should become east-northeast
after the front passes to the south of each taf site. The weak
pressure gradient should help keep wind speeds at 10kt or less for
the entire taf period, outside of thunderstorms.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Central and southeast Illinois continue to see another warm and
humid summer-like day today, along with isolated-scattered,
diurnally driven, showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is
likely to hold through Thursday, with slightly cooler and less
humid conditions expected to end the week. Friday and Saturday also
stand the best chance of being rain free across the area out of
the next seven days.
Main forecast concerns revolve around rainfall chances and amounts
through Thursday under current weather regime, as well as to start
next week with the arrival of a stronger system/frontal boundary.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday: Spotty showers/storms
continue to become more numerous with the heating of the day this
afternoon, much like yesterday, and this trend should continue
until diurnal instability wanes this evening. However, the
coverage should remain greatest outside of the forecast area,
closer to the better forcing associated with a weak circulation
centered over southeast Minnesota, and a much larger/stronger
upper low that has been nearly stalled over the southern Plains.
The weak upper low from Minnesota, as well as some additional
energy topping the mean central U.S. ridge, will help to slowly
sink a weak cold front into/through the forecast area for
Wednesday into Thursday. This energy/front should provide a little
greater coverage of showers and storms starting tomorrow, although
that is not saying much considering how minimal the coverage has
been the past couple of days.
While the arrival of the weak front and upper energy may help the
convection to sustain into the nighttime hours a little more than
the past few days, the bulk of the showers/storms should remain
diurnally driven. However, severe weather does not appear likely.
Instability values (moderate) and shear profiles (very weak)
should remain similar to those we have already seen this week.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday: The remnants of the surface
boundary settle south of the area for Friday into Saturday, with
upper ridging building strength aloft. This scenario should be
accompanied by drier and slightly cooler weather.
A stronger system will top the mean ridge to start next week,
dropping a cold front into the area. This front should be
accompanied by more widespread showers/storms than we have
seen/will see for much of this week. Models continue to disagree
with the timing and ultimate destination of this frontal boundary,
and these disagreements make it difficult to be too specific on
PoPs at this time.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1117 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISO
STORMS HAVE ENDED WITH LACK OF HEATING. A FEW LINGERING AND
DIMINISHING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END SOON. COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
SD AND WESTERN MN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR SHOWED
A LINGERING SHOWER FAR NW IA THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF COLD POOL CAN HOLD THEM TOGETHER LONGER. /REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP TRENDS INTO THE NIGHT. PARENT WAVE
OF MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT ALONG
THE RED RIVER WHILE SEPARATE WEAKER WAVE INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER
ALONG THE UPPER MS VALLEY. TWO CURRENT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE
SUBTLELY FORCED BUT APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY FORCING
ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE SW-NE WEAK FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH.
AIRMASS IS RATHER HOMOGENEOUS WITH ONLY WEAK DRYING BEHIND WIND
SHIFT.
SHORT WAVE SHOULD DRIFT DOWN THE IMMEDIATE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AND SOME POPS...ESPECIALLY
EAST...WHICH SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF INSOLATION. FARTHER SOUTH HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HOPWRF ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL
RECENTLY...SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR EXIT THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
FREEZING LEVELS HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY VS YESTERDAY SO
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES SOMEWHAT LATER THIS
EVENING AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE WITH LOWERING LCLS...AND PWS
BEGIN TO POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDOW FOR THIS
TO BE REALIZED WILL BE SMALL HOWEVER WITH COINCIDENT LOSS OF
HEATING.
FUNNEL CLOUD ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO PEAK
HEATING MAX WITH 0-3KM CAPES 150 J/KG OR MORE AND NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER 2-3 SOUTH. WEAK SURFACE VORTICITY HAS LIKELY
PRECLUDED ANY REPORTS AS OF YET BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY BE PREVALENT IN THIS LOW 0-6KM SHEAR
SITUATION...FOR ISOLATED VORTICITY GENERATION IN NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN A BIT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT ALONG WITH IT...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US...WILL AMPLIFY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SLIDING NORTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THETA-E RIDGING BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. THEREFORE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CREEP BACK
INTO THE CWA. FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US...SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF.
GFS/EC HAVE A SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AREA BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PUT THE DMX CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA AND A DRY LINE FEATURE SURGES THROUGH AS
WELL. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BACK
TO THE CWA AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASE TOWARD THE UPPER TEENS BY THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT THE TREND OF NEAR AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AS ST DECK FROM SOUTHEAST MN MOVES SOUTH. SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE ENDED FOR NOW...BUT WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA
WED... WILL SEE DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASE AND AFT 15Z...SHOWERS
AND SCT THUNDER INCREASING EAST HALF. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AGAIN
EAST DUE TO SCT NATURE OF EXPECTED COVERAGE. SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR
AM WILL END AFT 14Z. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH CLOUDS
REMAINING MVFR TO VFR BALANCE OF FORECAST./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
228 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING...EXIST OVER
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS
ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS NAM
DEVELOPED SHOWERS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND NORTON
COUNTY KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPEARS TO NOT STRETCH THIS FAR WEST...AND CONSIDERING THE HRRR
HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE 12Z NAM REMOVED
PRECIP FROM THE CWA...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA TOMORROW.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20C TO 25C
RANGE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO THAT COULD MOVE EAST INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS...SO
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 21Z TO 23Z...FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. CAPE IS UNDER 1000 J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA BUT KEPT IT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY THAT MAY MAKE INTO
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN TO THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DISAGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF STRONGEST
MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET...SO STRENGTH OF STORMS OVER THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA IS IN QUESTION. JET LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED CHANCES
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 8KTS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1115 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING...EXIST OVER
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS
ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS NAM
DEVELOPED SHOWERS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND NORTON
COUNTY KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPEARS TO NOT STRETCH THIS FAR WEST...AND CONSIDERING THE HRRR
HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE 12Z NAM REMOVED
PRECIP FROM THE CWA...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA TOMORROW.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20C TO 25C
RANGE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO THAT COULD MOVE EAST INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS...SO
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 21Z TO 23Z...FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. CAPE IS UNDER 100O J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA BUT KEPT IT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY THAT MAY MAKE INTO
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY EVENING.
THAT PATTERN REPEATS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
FURTHER EAST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THE COLORADO CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST WITH SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
PATTERN SUGGESTS A RATHER ROBUST DRY SLOT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MAY
INHIBIT CHANCES HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 8KTS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
214 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED INTO THE I 64 CORRIDOR HAS WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED IN EAST KY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE THUNDERSTORM MOVE EAST. ALSO...THE 0Z NAM AND
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA IN
BETWEEN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN
THIS AREA. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY ALREADY HAS SOME FOG OBSERVED AND
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ABOUT NOON
ON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
RADAR IS QUIET NOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NEAR THE MARTIN
COUNTY BORDER WITH WV. CANNOT SOUND THE ALL CLEAR THOUGH AS A STORM
JUST RECENTLY POPPED NEAR BARDSTOWN IN THE LMK CWA AND RECENT HRRR
RUNS HAVE GOTTEN ON BOARD AGAIN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE A CONTINUATION OF 20-30 POPS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ON
NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
HAVE OVERACHIEVED AND DROPPED SOME TREES...FROM RATHER BENIGN
LOOKING RADAR SIGNATURES. BUT...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STORMS SHOULD
BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND SHORTLY NOW THAT THE SUN IS ABOUT TO SET.
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH JUST SOME FINE
TUNING OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR WHICH NAILED THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH POPPED UP THIS MORNING IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP OVER OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN AREAS HIT WITH STORMS BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LOSE STRENGTH AND DIE OUT. AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP...COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER
DURING THE NIGHT AFTER 6Z. BY TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN TX/LOUISIANA AREA...ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NE TO ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND REACH JUST NE OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROGRESSING
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW TO OUR SW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR PROFILE IN
PLACE...THOUGH STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HIGH GUSTS...AND SMALL
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN.
AS SEEMS TO BE THE TREND...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
NIGHTFALL. HOWEVER...UNLIKE TONIGHT...THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DECENT FORCING IN ADDITION TO AN ALREADY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SO WHILE STORMS MAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE
EVENING...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD STILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BRINGING IN
WARM HUMID AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RATHER BLOCKY LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL START OUT CHURNING ACROSS LOUISIANA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GULF UPPER LEVEL LOW
FADING AWAY. TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN UP ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...
SHUNTING IT FURTHER SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS WILL PEAK
ON THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION EXPECTED. ONCE
THE BOUNDARY EXITS AND WEAKENS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE HUMIDITY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT IN THE WARM SECTOR...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHRA OR TSRA OVERNIGTH IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS...BUT ATTM...
CHANCES ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD RAMP UP AFTER 15Z OR 16Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...PENDING CLOUD OCVER...MVFR TO IFR
FOG...POSSIBLY BELOW AIRPORT MINS AT SOME OF THE NON TAF TIES SUCH AS
EKQ...W39...AND I39 WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...BEFORE LIFTING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY
BEFORE MOVING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE
NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT FROM WESTERN MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL MARYLAND. HRRR HAS COME IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AND LATEST WRF-ARW WAS ALSO STARTING TO CATCH ON.
RADAR TRENDS/LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR
POPS/WX FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRUSHING NORTHERN VIRGINIA/DC. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ISOLATED
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVE MINIMUM NEAR
DAYBREAK/EARLY MORNING. POPS WILL TREND BACK DOWN FOR A TIME...BUT
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON A BROADER VIEW...COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AT 07Z. THERE WAS ALSO CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...LIKELY PRESSING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MARYLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE DAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHILE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE THERE WILL BE CAPE AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER. FACTOR IN WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF LIKELY POPS.
STORMS MAY BE PULSE IN NATURE...AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND THIS WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE HWO. IF INITIATION OCCURS BEYOND MID
AFTERNOON...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT NORTHEAST MARYLAND WILL BE SPARED OF
THE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR PUNCHING SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT BUT CURRENTLY PREFER A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION PER THE GFS RATHER THAN THE NAM.
MAV AND MET CONTINUE TO DIFFER FOR MAXIMA TODAY...BUT THE GAP HAS
SHRUNK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WARMER MAV WAS THE WINNER YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
RESIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS EVENING...BUT PER SREFS WILL
TREND POPS FOR SHOWERS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA. SREFS ALSO SHOWS PROBABILITIES FOR ANY INSTABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANCE BEING SHOVED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR THUNDER EXCEPT PERHAPS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. IN FACT...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION MAY MORPH INTO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TYPE SCENARIO
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET FOR MINIMA/MAXIMA WHICH
CAPTURE THE EASTERLY FLOW/MARINE LAYER SCENARIO WELL AND SHOW A
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CWA
WILL BE STUCK IN THE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH
THU NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING IN THE MID LVLS BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS BENEATH THE MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF RAIN LINGERING
INTO THE EVE AND EVEN INTO THE OVNGT IN THE NRN PIEDMONT AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
NLY FLOW IN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIPRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN ON FRI. DAYTIME MIXING THOUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WELL-
DEVELOPED CU FIELD DURING THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
MIDWEST AND GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SFC...BROAD AREA OF HIPRES
OVER ERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN BOTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NGT AND
SUNDAY.
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY UNDER NLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH. COOL AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED BY STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...YIELDING MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S. LLVL WINDS
EVENTUALLY VEER OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY NGT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST. PATTERN RECOGNITION HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND ADVECT INLAND OF THE CHSPK BAY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE LLVL FLOW AND LIFT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING SWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE WWD EXTENT OF THESE
FEATURES SO CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH YET TO GO WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SLY RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF SFC HIPRES SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WLY WINDS ALOFT
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WHILE THE SLY FLOW AT THE SFC TRANSPORTS MOISTURE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD. A RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN...RESULTING IN THE STORM TRACK SHIFTING SWD AND CLOSER TO
OUR LATITUDE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF A MRB-BWI LINE.
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. IMPACT
AT TERMINALS MAY OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...AND IS REFLECTED IN TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE 18Z-22Z
PERIOD.
TAF ALSO REFLECTS OTHER CHANGES...FIRST A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT PRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN LOWERING CEILINGS AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS A MARINE LAYER.
LEANED TOWARD A GFS/LAMP/SREFS BLEND FOR ONSET OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THU
NGT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD MRB-CHO WHERE LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT.
MVFR CIGS FAVORED AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM INDICATE CIGS NEAR MVFR-VFR CRITERIA
FRI AFTN WHEN CU FIELD DEVELOPS. VFR EXPECT THIS WEEKEND WITH HIPRES
OVERHEAD.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT TO
THE EAST OCCURS AND MODELS SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT THUS
SCA IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.
NELY WINDS 5-10 KT THU NGT BECOME LGT AND VAR FRI WITH WEAK HIPRES
OVERHEAD.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PRESSURE RISES RESULTING FROM HIPRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SCA WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE MAIN STEM OF
THE CHSPK BAY WHERE ORIENTATION OF NLY WINDS OPTIMAL FOR CHANNELING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WERE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING ANOMALIES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE. WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SENSITIVE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS BEGINNING WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...JRK/BPP
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...JRK/BPP
MARINE...JRK/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THEN WRN PLAINS TO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN TROUGHS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED OVER NRN WI
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHRTWV NORTH OF A FRONT LOW OVER SE MN AND FRONT
THROUGH SRN WI.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WI SHRTWV AND REMAINING MID CLOUDS INTO THE SRN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO DRIFT TO THE SE. AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR WILL
DROP INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 0.3 INCH.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES ALSO DOMINATES. A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE VERY DRY 900-750 MB LAYER...EXPECT DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH RH DOWN TO NEAR 20
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY DUE TO CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY (AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO QUEBEC). AS THIS OCCURS...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES UNDER IT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGES...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO BE IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE A COUPLE HINTS OF SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES...COULD SEE
A FEW DIURNAL CU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND EITHER
VARIABLE OR OUT OF AT NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE COLD GREAT LAKES TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES TO BE THE NORM ON MOST DAYS. THUS...INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S) WHILE THE LAKESHORES WILL WARM UP IN THE MORNING AND
THEN START COOLING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING OVER THE INLAND
AREAS WILL SUPPORT LOWER RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOONS (MID 20S TO MID
30S PERCENT)...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND A RAPIDLY OCCURRING GREEN UP WILL
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GENERAL IDEA OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND EXACT TIMING. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SEEMS
REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN. A BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY NE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. SOUTH WINDS MAY NEAR OR EXCEED 20 KNOTS
BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
349 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LOW...BUT WE
FEEL ANY THAT DO FORM WILL CARRY A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 13 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT AROUND BAKER...BUT CAPPING MAY
INCREASINGLY LIMIT ACTIVITY THAT FAR SOUTH BEFORE DAYBREAK. WE ARE
THEN SET UP FOR A HOT...BUT QUIET PERIOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTENSE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 F IN MANY PLACES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MLCIN ENOUGH TO YIELD
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE
NOTE THAT THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH WEAK /YET NOTABLE/
HEIGHT FALLS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS TOO...SO THE LARGER-
SCALE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONVECTION. THE EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERATED OFF THE 00 UTC NSSL
WRF-ARW IS BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT BY 23 UTC IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. MLCAPE OF 500 TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY
/DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT/...SO ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAYBE
EVEN IMPACT PLACES LIKE BILLINGS WITH SOME RISK OF HAIL AND WINDS.
THAT ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN MT BY EVENING...LIKELY INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO
BE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG NEAR HARLOWTON...INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2000
J/KG FROM ROUNDUP ACROSS NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST TO MILES
CITY AND BAKER. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND
A DEEPLY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS TOO. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER...ESPECIALLY IF OVERNIGHT RUNS OF
THE RAP ARE CORRECT IN SHOWING A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS POINTED SOUTH-
WEST TOWARD RYEGATE...ROUNDUP AND INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AS
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD READILY INTERCEPT THAT ENVIRONMENT.
WE NEED TO STRESS ONCE MORE THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY WILL ONLY COME IN ONE BATCH SO THIS
WILL NOT BE A PROLONGED EVENT. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT THERE IS
A SEVERE RISK WITH ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE. WE
ARE NOT POSITIVE ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SOME
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. EVEN GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC
SSEO RUN FROM 00 UTC SUPPORTS THIS NOTION...WITH A FEW CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS EVEN GENERATING NOTABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY EAST
TOWARD MUSSELSHELL...NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES. ODDS OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL HIGHER IN NORTHERN MT...BUT WE
SAW ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE THREAT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION WITHIN THE
GRIDDED AND POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS IN PLACES.
BY THU...A MORE QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN
NEED OF SOME STORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE IT WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL WITH FRONTAL TIMING. SOUTHEASTERN MT MAY ACTUALLY GET
IN ON MORE STORMS THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS LIFT THAT THERMAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE PERHAPS GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE...WE STILL
HAVE SOME STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAYBE YIELDING WEAK STORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE COOLER THU TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS FEW CHANGES IN IT. OVERALL A WET AND
STORMY PATTERN PERSISTS IN ALL THE MODELS AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINE WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEMS. MODELS SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FOLLOWING 3
DAYS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS WOULD BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SO THIS IS A THREATENING
SITUATION THAT THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SHEAR
WILL BE PROVIDED BY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AS SURFACE
TROF RESIDES NEAR THE DIVIDE. CIPS ANALOGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER THE REPORTS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN ARE TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE
SHEAR AND LOW LCL VALUES PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PWS THIS MAKES
SENSE. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORMS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW TRANSIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA
AND INTO IDAHO. WHAT IT DOES FROM THERE DEPENDS ON THE MODEL AS
THE ECMWF DRIFTS IT EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
HOLDS IT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
BUT THROUGH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PROCESSES. HAVE BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO LIKELY TO COVER THE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A WESTERN US TROF. ONCE AGAIN
MODELS AIM AT A POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
TAKE UP RESIDENCE WHICH PUTS IT IN A GREAT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
LOCATION FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN AND
WEST. MODELS STILL BOUNCING AROUND WITH DETAILS AND WITH
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SUNDAY MONDAY SYSTEM ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE BAKER VICINITY...LIKELY EXITING THE AREA BEFORE 13Z. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 057/073 052/076 054/076 056/072 054/069 051/073
3/T 22/T 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
LVM 084 047/072 043/074 047/077 048/072 048/067 045/072
2/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
HDN 092 059/076 053/079 054/080 055/076 053/072 051/075
3/T 21/B 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
MLS 094 062/077 055/079 057/079 056/074 054/072 052/073
2/T 31/B 23/T 43/T 34/T 66/T 64/T
4BQ 094 063/078 055/077 056/079 056/077 055/075 052/074
1/U 21/B 45/T 54/T 44/T 66/T 65/T
BHK 089 062/078 054/076 054/076 052/072 051/070 050/070
2/T 21/B 44/T 64/T 44/T 66/T 64/T
SHR 091 056/075 050/075 049/078 049/075 049/072 046/073
2/T 23/T 35/T 55/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE
THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN
FOR SOME ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE INHIBITION AT 22Z WAS 20
TO 40 J/KG IN THE RAP. SO A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED POP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AROUND 1000
J/KG AND 20 KTS IN A NRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HOWEVER IS THE PROPER
BALANCE FOR WEAKLY ROTATING TSTMS AS INDICATED BY THE BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 45 SO A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STRATEGY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY USING
THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
H700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE WILL BE
PICKING UP A 20 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE 4 CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A SUMMER LIKE END TO MAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA
OTHERWISE CAP SHOULD HOLD. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN AS THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY.
AS TEMPS WARM...CAP WEAKENS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS/STORMS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH MID 80S TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. LL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN/EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVER
DURING THE NIGHT. SHEAR IS ON THE INCREASE AND THINK ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH EACH PASSING WAVE ALONG WITH PEAK
HEATING...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED. TIMING/COVERAGE STILL
IN QUESTION AND WILL WAIT TO UP POPS ABOVE HIGH CHANCE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM THE
NW...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WARMEST WHERE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS APPEAR...ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
STILL THINKING SW FLOW...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES LESSEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT DROP TO SEASONAL MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
EARLIER TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AT THE KVTN
TAF SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATER AFTERNOON WED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NC NEB IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW IN THE PAC NW. GUSTINESS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER ARKALATEX THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD RIDGING INTO
CENTRAL CANADA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 19Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION
INDICATED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AS WELL. RIDGING BUILT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY WAS LITTERED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WAS GENERALLY DRY.
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE WAS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
CONTINUING TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK PV
ANOMALY MOVES EWD ACROSS SD WHICH IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY...HOWEVER OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SWD. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND BRINGS THE ISOLATED TSRA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES THROUGH 08Z OR SO. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY
MULTICELL WITH BRIEF UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENTS TO NEAR SVR LEVELS
BEFORE COLLAPSING. HAVE INCREASED CHCS ACROSS THE NC ZONES INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ADJUSTED GRIDDED FORECAST POPS SLIGHTLY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS...BUT WORDING REMAINED THE SAME. ISOLATED TSRA
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND TYPICAL OF PULSE TYPE STORMS. STORMS
IN SD HAVE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDRY AND MOVING
SEWD. WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLLIDED WITH ANOTHER BOUNDRY JUST EAST
OF BLACK HILLS RECENTLY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS. WILL BE
MONITORING THESE TRENDS AS CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT BRING THESE
INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LLJ TO PRODUCE LIFTING
ALONG OUTFLOW. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE CAPE AS OF 19Z RANGED FROM 500J/KG
TO 2500J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER VALUES UP NEAR
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS LIMITED AND
ALTHOUGH HAVE THE INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY GET A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT TO HELP FUEL ANY STORMS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. IF THERE ARE ANY STORMS AROUND...THE FLOW IN THE
STEERING LAYER IS LIGHT SO SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED. AND IN TERMS
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...WIND SHEAR IS LOW SO DON/T THINK ANY STORMS
LOCALLY WILL BE ABLE TO GET ORGANIZED TO THE POINT OF BEING
SEVERE...AT LEAST NOT IN A SUSTAINED MANNER.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WITH
IT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS MILD...BUT EVEN WITH
LIGHT WINDS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL ENOUGH TO REACH
SATURATION AND DEVELOP FOG. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPERATURES
RISE 2-4 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOOKING FOR MIXING TO 700-750MB WHICH WOULD WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY REACH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO EVEN WITH INCREASING
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...WON/T GET GUSTS TO MUCH OVER 15-20MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE FORECAST STAYS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND THEN DIFFER DRAMATICALLY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF DRAWING MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER FRIDAY WHILE GFS CONTINUES UPWARD TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS GFS SENDS REMNANTS OF
AMANDA INTO THE PACIFIC WHILE ECMWF DRAGS REMNANTS THROUGH DESERT
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND WILL
GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE GFS FORECAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBR SKA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60. SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. HAVE LEFT
NORTHWEST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE WEST. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND GOOD SHEER SETUP FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. INCREASED POPS AND SPREAD THEM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR PATTERN TO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF TROUGH TO THE WEST HAVE CHANCES
OF TRW IN FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
EARLIER TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO DISSPATE AT THE KVTN TAF SITE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATER AFTERNOON WED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC NEB IN
RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW.
GUSTINESS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...POWER/BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
911 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL SWING ONSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE
AREA...AND MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE OREGON COAST. DOPPLER RADAR
GENERALLY SHOWS SHOWERS WEAKENING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE CAP THAT HELD BACK SHOWERS FROM INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON BROKE
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE CELLS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SUBURBS OF PORTLAND AND ANOTHER CELL NEAR MT RAINIER
SHOOTING UP INTO THE -30C TO -35C RANGE PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE LIGHTNING NETWORK DETECTED LIGHTNING EAST OF OREGON
CITY...BUT OTHER NETWORKS DID NOT DETECT ANY LIGHTNING IN THE CWA
THIS EVENING.
MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...APPROXIMATELY -28C
AT 500MB...WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE
SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SO THE MOST INTENSE SHOWER MAY BE MORE
CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COAST AND LANE COUNTY. ALSO...CANNOT RULE
OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER ALONG THE COAST AS SHOWERS GET A BOOST
BY THE COAST RANGE AND TAP INTO THE DEEP INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GET GOING IN A
HURRY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREA OF SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS IN THE COAST RANGE WHERE THEY WERE GENERALLY PROGGED
TO FORM TODAY...AND EVEN SOME ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON THE RAP 40KM MODEL SUGGESTS THE CAP IS
JUST ABOUT ERODED OFFSHORE AND IS ERODING INLAND...AND THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY ACARS/AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KPDX WITH THE MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE AROUND 750 MB GETTING LESS PRONOUNCED...BUT STILL THERE.
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSH CLOSER TO SHORE...AND
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING WHICH IS AIDING THE CAP
EROSION...BUT THIS PROCESS IS TAKING SOME TIME INLAND GIVEN THE
BROKEN CLOUD COVER. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS CLOSER TO SHORE AND THE CAP EASES A BIT MORE.
MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL LOOK REALLY WEAK...BUT VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DRIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME 50DBZ ECHOES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO NEAR THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST TO POP AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT INLAND AND SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS BY TIME
THEY GET TO THE CASCADES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT VERY
HIGH...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING WHICH MAY
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL.
TONIGHT...THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CASCADES. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ONSHORE. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT...BE OVER
THE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALREADY BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INLAND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING....BUT
EITHER WAY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL AND SHOWERY. FREEZING LEVELS
LOWER TO ABOUT 5K FEET...AND THUS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 4500 FEET
AND A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SANTIAM AND
WILLAMETTE PASSES AND POSSIBLY AT GOVERNMENT CAMP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANY SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE STRONG
SOLAR INPUT THIS TIME OF YEAR.MODELS SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 300 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM MENTION.
THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST BUT ITS TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA INTO THURSDAY...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...HANGING ON THE LONGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER THURSDAY. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM AS A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DIGS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE CASCADES
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR T-STORM
IN THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS ELSEWHERE REMAIN DRY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. KMD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME OF THE FCST MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH
COULD DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES LATE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL.
MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD MEAN OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CLOUDS AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEY HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH WELL INTO
THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND...RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER WEEK SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH IN ON MONDAY.
PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING FOR THROUGH WED. SHOWERS ARE DECREASING
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MOVING ASHORE...SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO END. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WED MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
INLAND AS WELL ON WED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH WED. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASE WED LATER WED MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS WEAK SFC LOW ABOUT 40 NM SW OF
KAST AND CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH. REMNANTS OF THE LOW FORECAST
TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR NEWPORT BETWEEN BY 12Z WED. SURFACE GRADIENTS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15
KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLES
OVER THE NE PAC THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE THERMAL LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SPREADS TO THE S OREGON COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
25 KT GUSTS OVER THE S WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH WED...THEN BUMPING UP INTO THE 5
TO 7 FT RANGE. THE STRONGER N WIND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL CREATE
CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF CASCADE HEAD LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. WEISHAAR.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
334 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WITH DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SMALL AREA OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION
LOCATED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
FOR TODAY...UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG. WITH MLCIN AROUND 100
J/KG AND LACK OF FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUN OF HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH DEEP MIXING EARLY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 25-30C
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS NEAR 90.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS INTO
CANADA...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN WYOMING. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM ON COLD FRONT POSITION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON....RANGING FROM OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING TO EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 90
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL COOLING AND STRATUS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. MOS GUIDANCE HAS A 15-20F RANGE FOR THURSDAY
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL JET
REMAINS ACROSS IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TROF DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND RIDGE HOLDS FAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW...THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
CONSENSUS PUTS BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE TWEAKED THE TIMING FROM THE 00Z PACKAGE. AT 05Z THE UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER JUST WEST OF THE ARKLATX. AS
WAS THE CASE AT 00Z...THE RAP13 LOOKED TO BE INITIALIZING BEST.
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z UPPER AIR LEVELS SHOWED THE BEST MOISTURE
FROM METRO HOUSTON TO THE COAST WITH A SPLITTING JET PATTERN
OVERHEAD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
KCLL AND KUTS AT 0530Z SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THESE SITES BY AROUND
07Z. THE RAP ALSO BRINGS THE BEST TIMES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. KHOU MAY BE ON
THE EDGE...BUT KLBX AND KGLS WILL PROBABLY SEE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z.
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL NEAR THE AREA...FELT THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR DEL RIO WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. NUMEROUS RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ARE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SFC DEW PTS WERE BEGINNING TO MAKE
A SLOW RECOVERY AND WERE NOW APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AGAIN. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF SE TX WHILE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA IS RAIN FREE. SOME DECENT RAINFALL
TOTALS YET AGAIN TODAY WITH 3-4 INCH TOTALS FROM BURTON TO WALLER
AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM CENTRAL TRINITY COUNTY ACROSS NORTHERN POLK
COUNTY. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD SWATH OF 850 MB MSTR
FROM CRP TO LCH. AN 850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE OK WITH A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SW. AT 700 MB...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS
CONFINED TO EXTREME SE TX INTO SW LA AND A 700 MB LOW WAS STACKED
OVER THE 850 MB LOW IN SE OK. THE 500 MB LOW WAS ALSO OVER SE OK
WITH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LA. AT 300
MB...WINDS SPLIT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE NOTED OVER
EAST TEXAS AND MOST OF LA.
THUS FAR TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND RAP 13 HAVE INITIALIZED BEST AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN BEGIN
TO REDEVELOP AROUND 08Z AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND APPROACHES SE TX. THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SE AND MERGE WITH STORMS OVER LOUISIANA THAT WILL
LIKELY BE BACKBUILDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE TX
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL RAISE POPS AFTER
06Z FOR THE EXTREME SE. WILL FRESHEN UP THE FFA AND EXTEND THE
WATCH TO NOON WEDNESDAY. NEW ZONES OUT 930 PM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 83 69 85 70 / 60 50 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 84 70 84 70 / 90 90 40 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 82 73 82 75 / 90 90 40 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND WAS STARTING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST.
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HIGH THEN
QUICKLY BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. THE RAP TAKES THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 19Z WHILE THE NAM HOLDS
ONTO THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES NMM AND ARW ARE IN LINE WITH THE RAP
PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE FORECAST MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THEN THIS CLEARING WILL
WORK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE CLEARING
OCCURRING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WITH THE DRIER
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP SO WILL HOLD THE FOG COVERAGE AT
PATCHY. THE DRIER AIR AND EARLIER CLEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SET UP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A WARM FRONT FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD
BECOME A CONCERN IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES. OUTSIDE OF THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IT/S DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS ON
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT CONVECTION EARLIER IS WEAKENING AS
IT SLIDES THROUGH SO INTENSITY OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WANE...BUT
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND POORLY DEFINED
SYSTEM. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 BUT RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF IFR CEILINGS REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...HAVE REVERSED
EARLIER THINKING AND ALONG WITH LATEST SREF TRENDS IN KEEPING THESE
CEILINGS AROUND MOST OF NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST AT TAF SITES
DELAYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STILL A BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND AFTER DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS MORE SHUNTED
SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING SKIES LATE IN
FORECAST COULD LEAD TO FOG POSSIBILITIES HEADING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1129 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
PWAT ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING THIS MORNING AT 1.53 INCHES. MORE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014/
AVIATION...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. STREAMER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FEW COULD PUSH IN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS MORNING...SO HAVE VCSH THROUGH 16Z. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AT KAPF...EXPECT A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
AROUND 18Z...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITE. KEPT VCSH AT KAPF...AND WILL REASSESS LIGHTNING RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS THAT HAPPEN TO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ASHORE BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT H5 TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND -10C ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS COMBINED WITH
WEAK CAPPING AND LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING PWAT
VALUES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THIS WILL FACILITATE BETTER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST.
MODELS DEPICT THIS MORE CONVECTIVE SEASON TYPE REGIME TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
TUESDAY...MODELS STILL HINT AT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT...SO WILL
STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW.
AVIATION...
A WEAK BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING EASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND IMPACT A TAF SITE. WITH THE EAST FLOW, THIS WILL
MAINLY BE KAPF, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST, LESS THAN 25 PERCENT, HAVE DROPPED MENTION
OF VCSH FOR ALL BUT KAPF, WHICH DOES ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
SEE TSRA AS WELL, ALTHOUGH AGAIN, THE CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT
IT CURRENTLY DOES NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS AND
SEAS AROUND 4 FEET OR LESS. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 86 72 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 86 74 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 88 76 87 74 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 91 72 88 71 / 20 20 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
858 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS NEAR TO JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PROFILER WINDS VERIFYING A WEAK
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW
VALUES AT XMR AT 1.5" AND TBW UP TO 1.8". THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY FOR TODAY AS BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE THIS
IS FAVORED LOCATION FOR SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND GREATER STORM
COVERAGE TOWARD LATE AFT/NEAR SUNSET.
500MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY TODAY TO AROUND -10C AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. IN ADDITION MORNING XMR SOUNDING
SHOWS SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS...MAINLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OVER THE INTERIOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...
SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. A WEAK SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY TOWARD LAKE
COUNTY LATE TODAY WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...S/SE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME E/SE AND
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3
FEET. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND AREAS TODAY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.AVIATION...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. STREAMER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FEW COULD PUSH IN TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS MORNING...SO HAVE VCSH THROUGH 16Z. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AT KAPF...EXPECT A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
AROUND 18Z...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITE. KEPT VCSH AT KAPF...AND WILL REASSESS LIGHTNING RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS THAT HAPPEN TO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ASHORE BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT H5 TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND -10C ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS COMBINED WITH
WEAK CAPPING AND LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING PWAT
VALUES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THIS WILL FACILITATE BETTER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST.
MODELS DEPICT THIS MORE CONVECTIVE SEASON TYPE REGIME TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
TUESDAY...MODELS STILL HINT AT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT...SO WILL
STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW.
AVIATION...
A WEAK BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING EASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND IMPACT A TAF SITE. WITH THE EAST FLOW, THIS WILL
MAINLY BE KAPF, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST, LESS THAN 25 PERCENT, HAVE DROPPED MENTION
OF VCSH FOR ALL BUT KAPF, WHICH DOES ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
SEE TSRA AS WELL, ALTHOUGH AGAIN, THE CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT
IT CURRENTLY DOES NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS AND
SEAS AROUND 4 FEET OR LESS. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 86 72 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 86 74 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 88 76 87 74 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 91 72 88 71 / 20 20 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY
THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLUMBIA AREA
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS THAT BATCH OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND TOWARDS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE 14Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AS NOTED BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z
RAOB SOUNDING AT CHS SHOWS PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.7 INCHES WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE MID 80S WHICH
SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED. HOWEVER...RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
CAE SHOW DRIER AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID LEVELS WITH
RUC GIVING PWAT VALUES AS LOW AS 1.1 INCHES...NOT FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THINK THIS MIGHT BE ON THE LOW SIDE THOUGH.
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION AS NOTED ON OUR LOCAL WRF AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL RUNS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOW AN AREA OF CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA WHICH
COULD BE ANOTHER FAVORED AREA AGAIN FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE
MEAN FLOW IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONCE AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
MAIN THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA.
TONIGHT...WITH S/W MOVING TOWARD/ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AREA
AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH CHANCES
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
THREAT OF SEVERE REMAINS LOW AS FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS HIGH AND
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHT. AS SUCH MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE FROM STRONG GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE REGION. FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US. BY SUNDAY THE
FRONT WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY MORNING TO
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK LIMITING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SUCH EXPECT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ONWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH A YET TO BE DETERMINED FAVORED AREA TO IMPACT
TERMINALS. NO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE MORNING /EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST BY 15Z AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS. BY EVENING...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
941 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...FORECAST STILL LOOKS IN LINE AS A BIT OF MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM A LOW LOCATED IN WESTERN OREGON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND THE
EXTREME SE CORNER OF IDAHO. HOWEVER...THE NEW NAM AND HRRR RUNS
ARE IN AND ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...IF IT CAN GET STARTED. ANY CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS
WILL PROBABLY BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND OVER THE OREGON
COAST WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE NNE INTO CANADA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR BUT LOOK FOR LIGHT CHOP TO STILL DEVELOP OVER THE
RESERVOIR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST
PUSH OF COOL AIR TO REACH OUR WESTERN BORDERS BY THIS MORNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR EASTERN AREAS TODAY AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WYATT
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY LOOK
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA. EXPECT AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE SLOW EXITING SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY BEFORE
RISING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT
AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED OVER THE OREGON COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DRY SW FLOW NOTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
SE IDAHO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME MID-LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW LIFTING NE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE SE HIGHLANDS. A FAIRLY STEEP SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
NOTED ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS MORNING BETWEEN A LOW OVER NW UTAH AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOUNTING ACROSS OREGON. THUS EXPECTING VFR SCT-BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLEARING TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HUSTON
FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO LIFT THE
LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE OR CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW
WAS POSITIONED OVER NW UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY STIFF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM MISSOULA TO WINNEMUCCA.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NNE TODAY AN
INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL EXTEND INTO THE MAGIC
VALLEY/POCATELLO REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. THUS EXPECTING BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND THROUGHOUT THE INL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY. A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE THROUGH
CANADA. THE MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST FRIDAY WITH A PUSH OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE WORKING NORTH THROUGH COLORADO INTO WYOMING FOR SOME MODEST
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. HUSTON
HYDROLOGY...THE TETON RIVER AT ST. ANTHONY IS STILL RISING
BECAUSE OF WARM TEMPERATURES CREATING ACCELERATED SNOW MELT. THE
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL STAGE THIS EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE NWS
RIVER STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAIL. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE FOG AND TO NUDGE HOURLY GRIDS
TOWARDS HOURLY OBS. NO NEW DEVELOPMENTS ATTM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT SAW MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY AND THAT HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TODAY. HRRR STILL
SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN 16-18Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM MODELS. THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED UP A BIT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUE.
THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...OR
LOCATIONS WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WAS BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTH-EAST INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. THE WESTERLIES WERE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT DIPPED SOUTH EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY
STATE WITH A TRAILING SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TO A SFC WAVE OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST BUT THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION. OVERALL...THIS
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AS CONVECTION TODAY OR
THURSDAY THAT DEVELOPS PRIMARILY AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AS THE FRONT NEARS. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING
AND OR MOISTENING OCCURS FOR CAPE TO REACH 2000 J/KG OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON...A STORM OR TWO MIGHT BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE AND LEAD TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS OCCURRED ON TUE. STORMS SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WORKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THU AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND PERHAPS MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW BOTH DAYS AND PW SHOULD BE AT
ITS HIGHEST ON THURSDAY...NEARING 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. TRAINING COULD
ALSO OCCUR BOTH DAYS...AGAIN THURSDAY MAY BE THE BIGGER CONCERN
THOUGH AS THE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SAGGING
COLD FRONT. SINCE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA FROM ROWAN AND MORGAN
COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY ARE ALREADY PRIMED FROM HEAVY
RAIN ON TUESDAY AND FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1
HOUR AND 2 TO 2.5 IN THREE HOURS IN THESE AREAS...WE HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
SHOULD REALLY GET GOING THROUGH LATE THU EVENING...AROUND 11
PM...WHEN DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND END THE THREAT.
DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE MOIST AIRMASS AND CLOUDS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9
AM OR SO TODAY...BUT SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND IN THE
EXTENDED. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR BENEATH IT THAT WOULD ACT TO TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE LESS ACTIVE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH LOWER POPS THAN THE LATEST
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. ONCE THE
GULF OPENS UP ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORM EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. THE PERIOD WILL FEEL QUITE
SUMMER LIKE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
AFTER SOME INITIALLY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES AND IFR IN SOME VALLEY
AIRPORTS SUCH AS I39...W38...AND 1A6 THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 16Z TO 17Z. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK AND DIMINISH BY 22Z...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT LOZ
AND SME AND OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER ABOUT 4Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM MODELS. THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED UP A BIT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUE.
THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...OR
LOCATIONS WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WAS BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTH-EAT INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. THE WESTERLIES WERE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT DIPPED SOUTH EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY
STATE WITH A TRAILING SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TO A SFC WAVE OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST BUT THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION. OVERALL...THIS
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AS CONVECTION TODAY OR
THURSDAY THAT DEVELOPS PRIMARILY AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AS THE FRONT NEARS. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING
AND OR MOISTENING OCCURS FOR CAPE TO REACH 2000 J/KG OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON...A STORM OR TWO MIGHT BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE AND LEAD TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS OCCURRED ON TUE. STORMS SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WORKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THU AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND PERHAPS MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW BOTH DAYS AND PW SHOULD BE AT
ITS HIGHEST ON THURSDAY...NEARING 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. TRAINING COULD
ALSO OCCUR BOTH DAYS...AGAIN THURSDAY MAY BE THE BIGGER CONCERN
THOUGH AS THE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SAGGING
COLD FRONT. SINCE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA FROM ROWAN AND MORGAN
COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY ARE ALREADY PRIMED FROM HEAVY
RAIN ON TUESDAY AND FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1
HOUR AND 2 TO 2.5 IN THREE HOURS IN THESE AREAS...WE HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
SHOULD REALLY GET GOING THROUGH LATE THU EVENING...AROUND 11
PM...WHEN DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND END THE THREAT.
DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE MOIST AIRMASS AND CLOUDS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9
AM OR SO TODAY...BUT SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND IN THE
EXTENDED. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR BENEATH IT THAT WOULD ACT TO TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE LESS ACTIVE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH LOWER POPS THAN THE LATEST
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. ONCE THE
GULF OPENS UP ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORM EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. THE PERIOD WILL FEEL QUITE
SUMMER LIKE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
AFTER SOME INITIALLY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES AND IFR IN SOME VALLEY
AIRPORTS SUCH AS I39...W38...AND 1A6 THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 16Z TO 17Z. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK AND DIMINISH BY 22Z...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT LOZ
AND SME AND OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER ABOUT 4Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
944 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS OUT CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK AND SW AR...MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR IS TRYING FILL IN ACROSS SE TX
INTO SW LA IN THE WAKE OF EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE
TX COAST INTO S LA ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS IS DEPICTING A
WEAK MCV SPINNING JUST SOUTHEAST OF AEX WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVC ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AS WELL.
FOR THE UPDATE...FOLLOWED THE HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT OUR EASTERN
PARISHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN WET WHILE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE TIED TO ANY
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HEATING OUR REGION RECEIVES. THEREFORE...
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING
POPS BACK TO SCATTERED VARIETY ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
ZONES.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES AS OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON.
DID LOWER OUR EASTERN ZONES A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE LARGE CANOPY
OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC INCLUDING DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS TO
MIMIC CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 67 82 68 85 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 78 67 82 66 86 / 80 60 70 30 60
DEQ 79 64 81 66 83 / 30 30 50 30 30
TXK 79 65 81 66 83 / 50 30 50 30 40
ELD 77 65 81 66 84 / 80 50 60 30 40
TYR 81 66 81 67 84 / 30 30 30 30 40
GGG 81 66 82 67 84 / 30 30 40 30 40
LFK 81 67 83 68 85 / 50 40 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
648 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY
BEFORE MOVING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE
NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT FROM WESTERN MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL MARYLAND. HRRR HAS COME IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AND LATEST WRF-ARW WAS ALSO STARTING TO CATCH ON.
RADAR TRENDS/LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR
POPS/WX FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRUSHING NORTHERN VIRGINIA/DC. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ISOLATED
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVE MINIMUM NEAR
DAYBREAK/EARLY MORNING. POPS WILL TREND BACK DOWN FOR A TIME...BUT
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON A BROADER VIEW...COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AT 07Z. THERE WAS ALSO CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...LIKELY PRESSING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MARYLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE DAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHILE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE THERE WILL BE CAPE AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER. FACTOR IN WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF LIKELY POPS.
STORMS MAY BE PULSE IN NATURE...AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND THIS WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE HWO. IF INITIATION OCCURS BEYOND MID
AFTERNOON...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT NORTHEAST MARYLAND WILL BE SPARED OF
THE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR PUNCHING SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT BUT CURRENTLY PREFER A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION PER THE GFS RATHER THAN THE NAM.
MAV AND MET CONTINUE TO DIFFER FOR MAXIMA TODAY...BUT THE GAP HAS
SHRUNK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WARMER MAV WAS THE WINNER YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
RESIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS EVENING...BUT PER SREFS WILL
TREND POPS FOR SHOWERS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA. SREFS ALSO SHOWS PROBABILITIES FOR ANY INSTABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANCE BEING SHOVED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR THUNDER EXCEPT PERHAPS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. IN FACT...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION MAY MORPH INTO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TYPE SCENARIO
INTO THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET FOR MINIMA/MAXIMA WHICH
CAPTURE THE EASTERLY FLOW/MARINE LAYER SCENARIO WELL AND SHOW A
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CWA
WILL BE STUCK IN THE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH
THU NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING IN THE MID LVLS BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS BENEATH THE MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF RAIN LINGERING
INTO THE EVE AND EVEN INTO THE OVNGT IN THE NRN PIEDMONT AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
NLY FLOW IN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIPRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN ON FRI. DAYTIME MIXING THOUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WELL-
DEVELOPED CU FIELD DURING THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
MIDWEST AND GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SFC...BROAD AREA OF HIPRES
OVER ERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN BOTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NGT AND
SUNDAY.
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY UNDER NLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH. COOL AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED BY STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...YIELDING MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S. LLVL WINDS
EVENTUALLY VEER OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY NGT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST. PATTERN RECOGNITION HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND ADVECT INLAND OF THE CHSPK BAY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE LLVL FLOW AND LIFT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING SWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE WWD EXTENT OF THESE
FEATURES SO CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH YET TO GO WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SLY RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF SFC HIPRES SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WLY WINDS ALOFT
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WHILE THE SLY FLOW AT THE SFC TRANSPORTS MOISTURE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD. A RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN...RESULTING IN THE STORM TRACK SHIFTING SWD AND CLOSER TO
OUR LATITUDE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF A MRB-BWI LINE.
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. IMPACT
AT TERMINALS MAY OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...AND IS REFLECTED IN TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE 18Z-22Z
PERIOD.
TAF ALSO REFLECTS OTHER CHANGES...FIRST A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT PRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN LOWERING CEILINGS AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS A MARINE LAYER.
LEANED TOWARD A GFS/LAMP/SREFS BLEND FOR ONSET OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THU
NGT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD MRB-CHO WHERE LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT.
MVFR CIGS FAVORED AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM INDICATE CIGS NEAR MVFR-VFR CRITERIA
FRI AFTN WHEN CU FIELD DEVELOPS. VFR EXPECT THIS WEEKEND WITH HIPRES
OVERHEAD.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT TO
THE EAST OCCURS AND MODELS SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT THUS
SCA IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.
NELY WINDS 5-10 KT THU NGT BECOME LGT AND VAR FRI WITH WEAK HIPRES
OVERHEAD.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PRESSURE RISES RESULTING FROM HIPRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SCA WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE MAIN STEM OF
THE CHSPK BAY WHERE ORIENTATION OF NLY WINDS OPTIMAL FOR CHANNELING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WERE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING ANOMALIES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE. WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SENSITIVE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS BEGINNING WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...JRK/BPP
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...JRK/BPP
MARINE...JRK/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH BEFORE RAIN MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
I HAVE ONCE AGAIN UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER MOSTLY CLINTON COUNTY.
OUR FFMP IS SHOWING AROUND 1.8 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR BAD CREEK. A
NEARBY MESONET STATION SHOWS THE DUAL POL PRECIPITATION IS VERY
CLOSE TO WHAT THE RADAR SHOWS. THE RAINFALL IS IN AN ENHANCED LIFT
AREA IN FRONT OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO END BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE I EXPECT THE CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH.
I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDESTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH INSTABLITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
I ADDED FOG TO THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES INTO LATE MORNING AS
WE HAVE REPORTS OF LOCALLY LOW VISIBILITIES AND THE ASOS STATIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94 HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES. I EXPECT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE STRONGLY NORTHEAST ALL OF THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY LATE MORNING.
THE HRRR FROM THE 09Z RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR I-96 AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR
SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE RAP 11Z RUN
SHOWS THE RAIN ALREADY THERE MOVING OUT BY LATE MORNING. GIVEN OUR
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THE SHOWERS INCREASING I HAVE TO BELIEVE OUR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN MID TO LATE
MORNING... WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HELP TO KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN SO
WE HAVE 60 POPS THERE FOR NOW. THE SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CLEAR ALL AREAS OUT (NE TO SW ) THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM REALLY IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST 12 HRS OR SO OF THE FCST IN THE FORM OF RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER SOME RAIN HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING NE OF GRAND RAPIDS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MI. A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT THREAT OF SOME PATCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AN LOW
CHC OF AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
TIME FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY RAIN ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT SE OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIR MASS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRIER ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SO MOST AREAS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S WITH H850
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TEENS C.
WE THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH MILD TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN. THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE WAVE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WILL EACH DAMPEN
OUT BY THU. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND AND HELPS TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD...AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY APPROACH THE
STATE BY FRI. TEMPS WILL GO UP A NOTCH EACH DAY AS H850 TEMPS INCH
UP A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY. WE COULD SEE 80 ONCE AGAIN BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/SFC LOWS MOVE
ALONG IT. THE SET UP LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS/AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR SOUTH OF I-96 EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN TURN VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 18Z... WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR MARINERS IS THE ONGOING POTENTIAL OF
FOG FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY. A LOOK AT WEBCAMS ALONG THE
COAST AND VISIBILITY REPORTS ALONG THE COAST INDICATE THAT FOG IS
NOT A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME FLOATING AROUND
OUT THERE...BUT NOT EVERYWHERE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG
EARLY BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SYCAMORE
CREEK AT HOLT. SOME RIVER LEVELS HAVE EXHIBITED SLOWER RATES OF
DECLINE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL. RAINFALL FROM SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY HAVE A SIMILAR
EFFECT. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT MAPLE RAPIDS, IONIA, AND EAGLE. ALL 3
ARE ON THE DECLINE...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY DELAY THE FALL OF THOSE RIVERS
BACK BELOW BANKFULL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
857 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH BEFORE RAIN MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
I ADDED FOG TO THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES INTO LATE MORNING AS
WE HAVE REPORTS OF LOCALLY LOW VISIBILITIES AND THE ASOS STATIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94 HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES. I EXPECT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE STRONGLY NORTHEAST ALL OF THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY LATE MORNING.
THE HRRR FROM THE 09Z RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR I-96 AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR
SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE RAP 11Z RUN
SHOWS THE RAIN ALREADY THERE MOVING OUT BY LATE MORNING. GIVEN OUR
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THE SHOWERS INCREASING I HAVE TO BELIEVE OUR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN MID TO LATE
MORNING... WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HELP TO KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN SO
WE HAVE 60 POPS THERE FOR NOW. THE SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CLEAR ALL AREAS OUT (NE TO SW ) THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM REALLY IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST 12 HRS OR SO OF THE FCST IN THE FORM OF RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER SOME RAIN HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING NE OF GRAND RAPIDS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MI. A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT THREAT OF SOME PATCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AN LOW
CHC OF AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
TIME FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY RAIN ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT SE OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIR MASS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRIER ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SO MOST AREAS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S WITH H850
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TEENS C.
WE THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH MILD TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN. THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE WAVE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WILL EACH DAMPEN
OUT BY THU. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND AND HELPS TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD...AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY APPROACH THE
STATE BY FRI. TEMPS WILL GO UP A NOTCH EACH DAY AS H850 TEMPS INCH
UP A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY. WE COULD SEE 80 ONCE AGAIN BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/SFC LOWS MOVE
ALONG IT. THE SET UP LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS/AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR SOUTH OF I-96 EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN TURN VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 18Z... WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR MARINERS IS THE ONGOING POTENTIAL OF
FOG FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY. A LOOK AT WEBCAMS ALONG THE
COAST AND VISIBILITY REPORTS ALONG THE COAST INDICATE THAT FOG IS
NOT A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME FLOATING AROUND
OUT THERE...BUT NOT EVERYWHERE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG
EARLY BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SYCAMORE
CREEK AT HOLT. SOME RIVER LEVELS HAVE EXHIBITED SLOWER RATES OF
DECLINE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL. RAINFALL FROM SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY HAVE A SIMILAR
EFFECT. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT MAPLE RAPIDS, IONIA, AND EAGLE. ALL 3
ARE ON THE DECLINE...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY DELAY THE FALL OF THOSE RIVERS
BACK BELOW BANKFULL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
902 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STC
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LOW...BUT WE
FEEL ANY THAT DO FORM WILL CARRY A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 13 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT AROUND BAKER...BUT CAPPING MAY
INCREASINGLY LIMIT ACTIVITY THAT FAR SOUTH BEFORE DAYBREAK. WE ARE
THEN SET UP FOR A HOT...BUT QUIET PERIOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTENSE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 F IN MANY PLACES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MLCIN ENOUGH TO YIELD
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE
NOTE THAT THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH WEAK /YET NOTABLE/
HEIGHT FALLS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS TOO...SO THE LARGER-
SCALE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONVECTION. THE EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERATED OFF THE 00 UTC NSSL
WRF-ARW IS BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT BY 23 UTC IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. MLCAPE OF 500 TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY
/DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT/...SO ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAYBE
EVEN IMPACT PLACES LIKE BILLINGS WITH SOME RISK OF HAIL AND WINDS.
THAT ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN MT BY EVENING...LIKELY INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO
BE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG NEAR HARLOWTON...INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2000
J/KG FROM ROUNDUP ACROSS NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST TO MILES
CITY AND BAKER. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND
A DEEPLY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS TOO. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER...ESPECIALLY IF OVERNIGHT RUNS OF
THE RAP ARE CORRECT IN SHOWING A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS POINTED SOUTH-
WEST TOWARD RYEGATE...ROUNDUP AND INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AS
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD READILY INTERCEPT THAT ENVIRONMENT.
WE NEED TO STRESS ONCE MORE THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY WILL ONLY COME IN ONE BATCH SO THIS
WILL NOT BE A PROLONGED EVENT. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT THERE IS
A SEVERE RISK WITH ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE. WE
ARE NOT POSITIVE ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SOME
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. EVEN GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC
SSEO RUN FROM 00 UTC SUPPORTS THIS NOTION...WITH A FEW CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS EVEN GENERATING NOTABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY EAST
TOWARD MUSSELSHELL...NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES. ODDS OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL HIGHER IN NORTHERN MT...BUT WE
SAW ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE THREAT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION WITHIN THE
GRIDDED AND POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS IN PLACES.
BY THU...A MORE QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN
NEED OF SOME STORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE IT WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL WITH FRONTAL TIMING. SOUTHEASTERN MT MAY ACTUALLY GET
IN ON MORE STORMS THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS LIFT THAT THERMAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE PERHAPS GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE...WE STILL
HAVE SOME STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAYBE YIELDING WEAK STORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE COOLER THU TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS FEW CHANGES IN IT. OVERALL A WET AND
STORMY PATTERN PERSISTS IN ALL THE MODELS AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINE WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEMS. MODELS SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FOLLOWING 3
DAYS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS WOULD BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SO THIS IS A THREATENING
SITUATION THAT THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SHEAR
WILL BE PROVIDED BY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AS SURFACE
TROF RESIDES NEAR THE DIVIDE. CIPS ANALOGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER THE REPORTS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN ARE TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE
SHEAR AND LOW LCL VALUES PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PWS THIS MAKES
SENSE. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORMS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW TRANSIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA
AND INTO IDAHO. WHAT IT DOES FROM THERE DEPENDS ON THE MODEL AS
THE ECMWF DRIFTS IT EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
HOLDS IT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
BUT THROUGH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PROCESSES. HAVE BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO LIKELY TO COVER THE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A WESTERN US TROF. ONCE AGAIN
MODELS AIM AT A POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
TAKE UP RESIDENCE WHICH PUTS IT IN A GREAT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
LOCATION FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN AND
WEST. MODELS STILL BOUNCING AROUND WITH DETAILS AND WITH
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SUNDAY MONDAY SYSTEM ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF UPSLOPE INDUCED STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS REGION
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE THIS LAYER DISSIPATES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35 KTS COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 057/073 052/076 054/076 056/072 054/069 051/073
3/T 22/T 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
LVM 084 047/072 043/074 047/077 048/072 048/067 045/072
2/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
HDN 092 059/076 053/079 054/080 055/076 053/072 051/075
3/T 21/B 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
MLS 094 062/077 055/079 057/079 056/074 054/072 052/073
2/T 31/B 23/T 43/T 34/T 66/T 64/T
4BQ 094 063/078 055/077 056/079 056/077 055/075 052/074
1/U 21/B 45/T 54/T 44/T 66/T 65/T
BHK 089 062/078 054/076 054/076 052/072 051/070 050/070
1/N 21/B 44/T 64/T 44/T 66/T 64/T
SHR 091 056/075 050/075 049/078 049/075 049/072 046/073
2/T 23/T 35/T 55/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
644 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
WE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WE HAD IN BAKER UNTIL 15 UTC SINCE ALL THE STORMS
ARE NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING HAS TAKEN
HOLD OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE ALSO INCLUDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT UNTIL 15 UTC WHERE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON EASTWARD TO NEAR
RYEGATE AND EVEN AROUND BILLINGS. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT
BY MID MORNING. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LOW...BUT WE
FEEL ANY THAT DO FORM WILL CARRY A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 13 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT AROUND BAKER...BUT CAPPING MAY
INCREASINGLY LIMIT ACTIVITY THAT FAR SOUTH BEFORE DAYBREAK. WE ARE
THEN SET UP FOR A HOT...BUT QUIET PERIOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTENSE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 F IN MANY PLACES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MLCIN ENOUGH TO YIELD
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE
NOTE THAT THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH WEAK /YET NOTABLE/
HEIGHT FALLS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS TOO...SO THE LARGER-
SCALE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONVECTION. THE EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERATED OFF THE 00 UTC NSSL
WRF-ARW IS BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT BY 23 UTC IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. MLCAPE OF 500 TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY
/DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT/...SO ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAYBE
EVEN IMPACT PLACES LIKE BILLINGS WITH SOME RISK OF HAIL AND WINDS.
THAT ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN MT BY EVENING...LIKELY INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO
BE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG NEAR HARLOWTON...INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2000
J/KG FROM ROUNDUP ACROSS NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST TO MILES
CITY AND BAKER. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND
A DEEPLY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS TOO. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER...ESPECIALLY IF OVERNIGHT RUNS OF
THE RAP ARE CORRECT IN SHOWING A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS POINTED SOUTH-
WEST TOWARD RYEGATE...ROUNDUP AND INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AS
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD READILY INTERCEPT THAT ENVIRONMENT.
WE NEED TO STRESS ONCE MORE THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY WILL ONLY COME IN ONE BATCH SO THIS
WILL NOT BE A PROLONGED EVENT. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT THERE IS
A SEVERE RISK WITH ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE. WE
ARE NOT POSITIVE ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SOME
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. EVEN GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC
SSEO RUN FROM 00 UTC SUPPORTS THIS NOTION...WITH A FEW CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS EVEN GENERATING NOTABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY EAST
TOWARD MUSSELSHELL...NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES. ODDS OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL HIGHER IN NORTHERN MT...BUT WE
SAW ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE THREAT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION WITHIN THE
GRIDDED AND POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS IN PLACES.
BY THU...A MORE QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN
NEED OF SOME STORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE IT WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL WITH FRONTAL TIMING. SOUTHEASTERN MT MAY ACTUALLY GET
IN ON MORE STORMS THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS LIFT THAT THERMAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE PERHAPS GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE...WE STILL
HAVE SOME STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAYBE YIELDING WEAK STORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE COOLER THU TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS FEW CHANGES IN IT. OVERALL A WET AND
STORMY PATTERN PERSISTS IN ALL THE MODELS AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINE WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEMS. MODELS SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FOLLOWING 3
DAYS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS WOULD BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SO THIS IS A THREATENING
SITUATION THAT THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SHEAR
WILL BE PROVIDED BY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AS SURFACE
TROF RESIDES NEAR THE DIVIDE. CIPS ANALOGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER THE REPORTS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN ARE TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE
SHEAR AND LOW LCL VALUES PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PWS THIS MAKES
SENSE. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORMS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW TRANSIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA
AND INTO IDAHO. WHAT IT DOES FROM THERE DEPENDS ON THE MODEL AS
THE ECMWF DRIFTS IT EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
HOLDS IT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
BUT THROUGH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PROCESSES. HAVE BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO LIKELY TO COVER THE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A WESTERN US TROF. ONCE AGAIN
MODELS AIM AT A POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
TAKE UP RESIDENCE WHICH PUTS IT IN A GREAT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
LOCATION FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN AND
WEST. MODELS STILL BOUNCING AROUND WITH DETAILS AND WITH
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SUNDAY MONDAY SYSTEM ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF UPSLOPE INDUCED STRATUS CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
BILLINGS WEST TO LIVINGSTON. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z BEFORE THIS LAYER DISSIPATES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 057/073 052/076 054/076 056/072 054/069 051/073
3/T 22/T 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
LVM 084 047/072 043/074 047/077 048/072 048/067 045/072
2/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
HDN 092 059/076 053/079 054/080 055/076 053/072 051/075
3/T 21/B 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
MLS 094 062/077 055/079 057/079 056/074 054/072 052/073
2/T 31/B 23/T 43/T 34/T 66/T 64/T
4BQ 094 063/078 055/077 056/079 056/077 055/075 052/074
1/U 21/B 45/T 54/T 44/T 66/T 65/T
BHK 089 062/078 054/076 054/076 052/072 051/070 050/070
1/N 21/B 44/T 64/T 44/T 66/T 64/T
SHR 091 056/075 050/075 049/078 049/075 049/072 046/073
2/T 23/T 35/T 55/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
528 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LOW...BUT WE
FEEL ANY THAT DO FORM WILL CARRY A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 13 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT AROUND BAKER...BUT CAPPING MAY
INCREASINGLY LIMIT ACTIVITY THAT FAR SOUTH BEFORE DAYBREAK. WE ARE
THEN SET UP FOR A HOT...BUT QUIET PERIOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTENSE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 F IN MANY PLACES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MLCIN ENOUGH TO YIELD
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE
NOTE THAT THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH WEAK /YET NOTABLE/
HEIGHT FALLS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS TOO...SO THE LARGER-
SCALE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONVECTION. THE EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION GENERATED OFF THE 00 UTC NSSL
WRF-ARW IS BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT BY 23 UTC IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. MLCAPE OF 500 TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY
/DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT/...SO ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAYBE
EVEN IMPACT PLACES LIKE BILLINGS WITH SOME RISK OF HAIL AND WINDS.
THAT ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN MT BY EVENING...LIKELY INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO
BE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG NEAR HARLOWTON...INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2000
J/KG FROM ROUNDUP ACROSS NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST TO MILES
CITY AND BAKER. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND
A DEEPLY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS TOO. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER...ESPECIALLY IF OVERNIGHT RUNS OF
THE RAP ARE CORRECT IN SHOWING A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS POINTED SOUTH-
WEST TOWARD RYEGATE...ROUNDUP AND INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AS
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD READILY INTERCEPT THAT ENVIRONMENT.
WE NEED TO STRESS ONCE MORE THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY WILL ONLY COME IN ONE BATCH SO THIS
WILL NOT BE A PROLONGED EVENT. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT THERE IS
A SEVERE RISK WITH ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE. WE
ARE NOT POSITIVE ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SOME
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. EVEN GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC
SSEO RUN FROM 00 UTC SUPPORTS THIS NOTION...WITH A FEW CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS EVEN GENERATING NOTABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY EAST
TOWARD MUSSELSHELL...NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES. ODDS OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL HIGHER IN NORTHERN MT...BUT WE
SAW ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE THREAT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION WITHIN THE
GRIDDED AND POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS IN PLACES.
BY THU...A MORE QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN
NEED OF SOME STORM CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE IT WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL WITH FRONTAL TIMING. SOUTHEASTERN MT MAY ACTUALLY GET
IN ON MORE STORMS THU NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS LIFT THAT THERMAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE PERHAPS GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE...WE STILL
HAVE SOME STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAYBE YIELDING WEAK STORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE COOLER THU TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS FEW CHANGES IN IT. OVERALL A WET AND
STORMY PATTERN PERSISTS IN ALL THE MODELS AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINE WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEMS. MODELS SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FOLLOWING 3
DAYS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS WOULD BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SO THIS IS A THREATENING
SITUATION THAT THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SHEAR
WILL BE PROVIDED BY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AS SURFACE
TROF RESIDES NEAR THE DIVIDE. CIPS ANALOGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER THE REPORTS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN ARE TORNADOS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE
SHEAR AND LOW LCL VALUES PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PWS THIS MAKES
SENSE. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORMS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW TRANSIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA
AND INTO IDAHO. WHAT IT DOES FROM THERE DEPENDS ON THE MODEL AS
THE ECMWF DRIFTS IT EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
HOLDS IT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
BUT THROUGH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PROCESSES. HAVE BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO LIKELY TO COVER THE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A WESTERN US TROF. ONCE AGAIN
MODELS AIM AT A POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
TAKE UP RESIDENCE WHICH PUTS IT IN A GREAT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
LOCATION FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN AND
WEST. MODELS STILL BOUNCING AROUND WITH DETAILS AND WITH
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE SUNDAY MONDAY SYSTEM ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF UPSLOPE INDUCED STRATUS CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
BILLINGS WEST TO LIVINGSTON. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z BEFORE THIS LAYER DISSIPATES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 057/073 052/076 054/076 056/072 054/069 051/073
3/T 22/T 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
LVM 084 047/072 043/074 047/077 048/072 048/067 045/072
2/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
HDN 092 059/076 053/079 054/080 055/076 053/072 051/075
3/T 21/B 24/T 54/T 46/T 66/T 64/T
MLS 094 062/077 055/079 057/079 056/074 054/072 052/073
2/T 31/B 23/T 43/T 34/T 66/T 64/T
4BQ 094 063/078 055/077 056/079 056/077 055/075 052/074
1/U 21/B 45/T 54/T 44/T 66/T 65/T
BHK 089 062/078 054/076 054/076 052/072 051/070 050/070
2/T 21/B 44/T 64/T 44/T 66/T 64/T
SHR 091 056/075 050/075 049/078 049/075 049/072 046/073
2/T 23/T 35/T 55/T 56/T 66/T 64/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE
THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN
FOR SOME ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE INHIBITION AT 22Z WAS 20
TO 40 J/KG IN THE RAP. SO A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED POP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AROUND 1000
J/KG AND 20 KTS IN A NRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HOWEVER IS THE PROPER
BALANCE FOR WEAKLY ROTATING TSTMS AS INDICATED BY THE BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 45 SO A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STRATEGY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY USING
THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
H700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE WILL BE
PICKING UP A 20 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE 4 CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A SUMMER LIKE END TO MAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA
OTHERWISE CAP SHOULD HOLD. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN AS THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY.
AS TEMPS WARM...CAP WEAKENS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS/STORMS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH MID 80S TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. LL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN/EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVER
DURING THE NIGHT. SHEAR IS ON THE INCREASE AND THINK ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH EACH PASSING WAVE ALONG WITH PEAK
HEATING...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED. TIMING/COVERAGE STILL
IN QUESTION AND WILL WAIT TO UP POPS ABOVE HIGH CHANCE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM THE
NW...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WARMEST WHERE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS APPEAR...ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
STILL THINKING SW FLOW...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES LESSEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT DROP TO SEASONAL MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
21Z- 00Z TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS BETWEEN KMUL-KTIF AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KVTN. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND 01Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1007 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...SINKING AIR IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE ALOFT
PRESENTLY HEADING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. INTERESTING
FEATURE UPSTREAM OVER SC...A COALESCENCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING
NE AND APPROACHING FLORENCE SC. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE REGENERATION THIS EARLY BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH.
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMING
POINTS TO BLOSSOMING SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z/2PM-4PM
OVER INTERIOR ZONES AND THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SPREADING
E-SE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNFAVORABLE CLOCKWISE TURING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
OUR AREA...AS A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EAST...AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN DEPICTIONS OF
RH THROUGH TIME AND HEIGHT...SHOWING A DRY H7-H6 LAYER THIS AFTN.
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN CONVECTION BUT IT
COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH AND THREAT OF TSTMS LATER TODAY. WITH
STRONG SUNSHINE AND ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WE CAN
EXPECTED A ROUND OF DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS LOWER 90S INLAND LOOKS ON TARGET WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE
STILL WARMING THE GROUND SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST THU...WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ATOP THIS
FEATURE. LOCALLY...THE AREA REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE GULF...AND AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND. BY
THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CRASH AS THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH...DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST AND UPR 60S INLAND.
MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...SERVING AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SPC HAS A SEE
TEXT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...BUT ATTM SEE ONLY LIMITED
SEVERE RISK WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST A LOT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. EITHER
WAY...EXPECT QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE. INITIALLY A REX BLOCK
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL DROP FROM CURRENT APPROXIMATE VALUES OF 1.80 INCHES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. MUCH LIKE WE SAW THIS
WEEKEND...A REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLE BUT THE
TRANSITION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE OF COURSE A LITTLE LOWER
IN TIME WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT LOWS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST
OFFSHORE OF KILM WITH ACTIVITY TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE. MVFR BR
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS AT KLBT.
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR THAT ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY NEAR KMYR/KCRE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR
W AS KFLO/KLBT. DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT A
GREAT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THUS THE CHANCE OF A TERMINAL ACTUALLY
BEING AFFECTED IS SMALL. WSW-W WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SW
BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SSW-SW IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. VFR/SW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER
AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 10 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BUT THE PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO VEER OUR WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY THAN
WE SAW YESTERDAY. THIS WILL ACT COUNTER TO THE SEABREEZE...
RESULTING IN A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WEAKER THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THIS STILL MEANS NEAR-SHORE WINDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 15-18
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS BUT SHOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME SURVIVING
OFFSHORE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET...EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR PERHAPS FALL BY A
FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BEING SHUNTED SOUTH BY A SLOWLY DROPPING COLD FRONT.
UNCERTAIN INTO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DROP DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC
WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK SW WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SC
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4 FT AND A MORE CONFUSED
SPECTRUM WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF ASSOCIATED WITH NE SURGES. FOR
FRIDAY...LETHARGIC WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. FOR
LATER SATURDAY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT THE SEAS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 1-2 FEET FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO 3-4 FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...TRA/JDW
RADAR...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS FINALLY CLEAR
OF THE COAST AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. OUR LOCAL MESONET PRODUCT SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. 0.30 INCHES WAS
RECORDED IN WILMINGTON...THE FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN HERE IN ALMOST
TWO WEEKS!
AT THE SURFACE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS FLORIDA...WITH SOUTH WINDS VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE LATITUDE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS BRINGING A
WARM AND QUITE HUMID AIRMASS NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES CURRENTLY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS
PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHAPED BY A CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA. NUMEROUS TINY PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF CONVECTION IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT ONE
TRACKABLE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AVAILABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION
INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN THE SAND HILLS AND ALONG THE EDGE OF OUTFLOW
LAID DOWN BY THE EARLY MORNING STORMS IN SE NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AN INTERESTING NEGATIVE BIAS HAS ARISEN IN
OPERATIONAL MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE SOME STATS FROM OUR LOCAL VERIFICATION PROGRAM:
GFS MOS BIAS NAM MOS BIAS
1 DAY 2 DAY 5 DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 5 DAY
ILM -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2
FLO -2 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3
CRE 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1
MYR +1 +1 0 0 +1 +1
LBT -4 -3 -2 -7 -6 -4
IT IS INTERESTING THAT AWAY FROM THE TWO MYRTLE BEACH STATIONS
(CRE AND MYR) MOS HAS PRODUCED CONSISTENTLY TOO-COOL OUTPUT.
USING THIS BIAS INFORMATION AND COMPARING FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS
DAY TO DAY IT APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES TODAY.
THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...TAKING THE BETTER SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WITH IT. GIVEN
THE LARGE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST I WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP OVERNIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST THU...WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ATOP THIS
FEATURE. LOCALLY...THE AREA REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE GULF...AND AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND. BY
THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CRASH AS THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH...DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST AND UPR 60S INLAND.
MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...SERVING AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SPC HAS A SEE
TEXT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...BUT ATTM SEE ONLY LIMITED
SEVERE RISK WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST A LOT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. EITHER
WAY...EXPECT QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE. INITIALLY A REX BLOCK
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL DROP FROM CURRENT APPROXIMATE VALUES OF 1.80 INCHES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. MUCH LIKE WE SAW THIS
WEEKEND...A REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLE BUT THE
TRANSITION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE OF COURSE A LITTLE LOWER
IN TIME WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT LOWS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE
OF KILM WITH ACTIVITY TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE. MVFR BR HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS AT KLBT.
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR THAT ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY NEAR KMYR/KCRE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR
W AS KFLO/KLBT. DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT A
GREAT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THUS THE CHANCE OF A TERMINAL ACTUALLY
BEING AFFECTED IS SMALL. WSW-W WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SW
BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SSW-SW IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. VFR/SW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER
AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 645 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BUT THE PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO VEER OUR WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY THAN
WE SAW YESTERDAY. THIS WILL ACT COUNTER TO THE SEABREEZE...
RESULTING IN A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WEAKER THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THIS STILL MEANS NEAR-SHORE WINDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 15-18 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT MAY AFFECT THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS BUT SHOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME SURVIVING OFFSHORE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET...EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR PERHAPS FALL BY A
FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BEING SHUNTED SOUTH BY A SLOWLY DROPPING COLD FRONT.
UNCERTAIN INTO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DROP DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC
WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK SW WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SC
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4 FT AND A MORE CONFUSED
SPECTRUM WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF ASSOCIATED WITH NE SURGES. FOR
FRIDAY...LETHARGIC WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. FOR
LATER SATURDAY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT THE SEAS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 1-2 FEET FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO 3-4 FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
651 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND WAS STARTING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST.
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HIGH THEN
QUICKLY BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. THE RAP TAKES THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 19Z WHILE THE NAM HOLDS
ONTO THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES NMM AND ARW ARE IN LINE WITH THE RAP
PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE FORECAST MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THEN THIS CLEARING WILL
WORK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE CLEARING
OCCURRING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WITH THE DRIER
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP SO WILL HOLD THE FOG COVERAGE AT
PATCHY. THE DRIER AIR AND EARLIER CLEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SET UP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A WARM FRONT FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD
BECOME A CONCERN IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES. OUTSIDE OF THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IT/S DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS ON
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THIS MORNING AND WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE IN
PLACE FROM LSE WEST TO RST AND GUIDANCE IS SAYING THAT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL...BUT SHOULD STAY LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT VISIBILITY DOES NOT
DROP. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TO THE
POINT THAT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT IT INTO THE TAF...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS GOING INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW
MTNS AND WETS AND S SANGRES. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SO SHOWERS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY. OTHERWISE IT WAS QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO 90
ACROSS THE PLAINS...70 TO L80S VALLEYS...AND 50S AND 60S MTNS.
REST OF TODAY AND TONITE...
MAIN CHANGE I MADE TO THE FCST WAS TO INCLUDE SOME LOW END POPS TO N
EL PASO COUNTY AND TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HRRR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT A LITTLE FARTHER ONTO THE PLAINS.
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE OF S CALIF COAST IS BRINGING IN SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
REGION STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW(THURSDAY)...
SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING A BIT FARTHER ONTO
THE PLAINS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE SW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
ABOUT SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM APPEAR TO BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS...WITH ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT
AT TIMES DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS.
INITIALLY...RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED AT TIMES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES. WFO PUEBLO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN(ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR AREA BURN SCARS) DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY TO
DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO/ACROSS MONTANA
ALLOWS A DRIER AIRMASS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA.
FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTICE BASICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER ZONAL TO UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL REGIME SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...NORTHERLY SURGE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO.
LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE INCREASING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS) AS MEAN LAYER SHEAR...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES ALL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
FINALLY...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH THE WEEKEND EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS...WHILE BY MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN ISOLD WEAK TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND KALS...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN TAF PRODUCT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
326 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE
WHERE GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...DEVELOPING ALONG AND
INLAND OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAINLY FROM I-95 WEST. STILL
EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER BEST RAIN CHANCES EXIST WEST OF
ORLANDO...ACROSS LAKE COUNTY...WHERE BOTH THE WRF AND HRRR MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE AFT/TOWARD SUNSET. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY RESULT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
LATE EVENING AND THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST OVERNIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
THU...EXPECTING HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOMORROW AS GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF AND
MOISTURE INCREASING IN S/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHTLY BUT STILL ROUGHLY 10-20 PERCENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30 AT THE COAST TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF ORLANDO
WHERE LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. THIS INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A TAD LOWER...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
INLAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRI-SUN...RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP BACK SOME FRI AND SAT AND EVEN MORE
SO SUNDAY AS A H50 HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST OHIO VALLEY BUILDS SWD OVER
FL...UPSTREAM FROM A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WRN ATLC. COMBINATION
OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH
PRES...DRIER AIR AND FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR SAT...CONTINUED TREND OF HIGHER POPS INLAND...AND NUDGED
THEM UP AROUND LAKE OKEE OWING TO DEEPER MOISTURE/LOWEST MID LEVEL
HGTS...AND POTENTIAL SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION. DROPPED SUNDAY
POPS BACK TO SLGT CHC ALL AREAS...AS SFC EASTERLIES BEGIN TO
FRESHEN. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THRU SAT...BEFORE
FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUN.
MON-WED...HIGH CENTER WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE TOP OF FL THROUGH TUE
AS THE AXIS OF THE ATLC SURFACE HIGH ALSO DROPS SWD. MEAN DRYING...
WITH A VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD SUPPRESS
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BY
NEXT WED...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS BY THE ECM THAT SOME CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE COULD CREEP BACK NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS HIGHER H50 HGTS AND DRIER
AIR LOCKED IN A DAY LONGER BEFORE STARTING TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN
THE LOCAL AIR MASS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECM....ADDED A SMALL POP FOR
DAY 8 (NEXT WED). TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED
WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS LAKE COUNTY NEAR TO JUST BEFORE 00Z
WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN THROUGH LATE EVENING. VFR CONDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLY
PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES BTWN 10-13Z. GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING S/SE 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FEET.
THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BENIGN BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A GENTLE SEA BREEZE WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND
2FT OR A LITTLE LESS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE. BY
SUNDAY...FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE SEAS UP TO 5-6FT AND COULD POSSIBLY NECESSITATE A
CAUTIONARY STMT FOR THE 20-60NM LEGS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 86 70 88 / 10 30 20 40
MCO 71 89 69 91 / 20 50 30 40
MLB 72 86 71 88 / 10 30 20 40
VRB 71 85 69 87 / 10 30 20 40
LEE 72 89 72 90 / 40 60 30 40
SFB 72 90 71 91 / 20 50 30 40
ORL 73 90 72 90 / 20 50 30 40
FPR 70 85 69 87 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
RADAR/IMPACT WX...SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
516 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 516 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTH
TO LOW 60S SOUTH WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AROUND 80 DEGREES EXCEPT
FOR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LOOSELY DEFINED "COLD" FRONT...MORE ACCURATELY DESCRIBED AS A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A MODEST MOISTURE/DENSITY
GRADIENT...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS
TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH JUST A VERY WEAK VORTICITY LOBE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EARLY DAY INSOLATION ALLOWED FOR A
DECENT RISE IN MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED AND STABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THEREFORE DEVELOPED IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA AS
EXPECTED. LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR AND/OR CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSE/MULTICELLULAR MODE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH HIGH PW VALUES...WEAK FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...AND MORE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HRRR AND OTHER
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR
TODAY AND SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTH BY
AROUND 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. THERMAL PROFILES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM
CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT INCREASING SUN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHS NEAR 80F. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOUCH LOWER THOUGH...TAKING THE
HUMIDITY DOWN A NOTCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TROF ALONG THE NOAM WEST COAST
EJECTS EASTWARD AND WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE CHALLENGE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z
GFS RUN. 12Z MODEL IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GEM/ECMWF AND
UKMET - THE 06Z AS THE OUTLIER HAD THE LOW EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH TO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH.
REGARDLESS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
KSBN BUT THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT KFWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITED SHEAR AND LACK OF FOCUSED TRIGGERING MECHANISM WILL KEEP
CONVECTION SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
50 TO 55 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LOOSELY DEFINED "COLD" FRONT...MORE ACCURATELY DESCRIBED AS A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A MODEST MOISTURE/DENSITY
GRADIENT...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS
TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH JUST A VERY WEAK VORTICITY LOBE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EARLY DAY INSOLATION ALLOWED FOR A
DECENT RISE IN MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED AND STABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THEREFORE DEVELOPED IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA AS
EXPECTED. LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR AND/OR CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSE/MULTICELLULAR MODE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH HIGH PW VALUES...WEAK FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...AND MORE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HRRR AND OTHER
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR
TODAY AND SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTH BY
AROUND 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. THERMAL PROFILES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM
CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT INCREASING SUN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHS NEAR 80F. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOUCH LOWER THOUGH...TAKING THE
HUMIDITY DOWN A NOTCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TROF ALONG THE NOAM WEST COAST
EJECTS EASTWARD AND WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE CHALLENGE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z
GFS RUN. 12Z MODEL IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GEM/ECMWF AND
UKMET - THE 06Z AS THE OUTLIER HAD THE LOW EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH TO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH.
REGARDLESS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
KSBN BUT THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT KFWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITED SHEAR AND LACK OF FOCUSED TRIGGERING MECHANISM WILL KEEP
CONVECTION SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOWS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THAT WAS SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AS WEAK LOW NEAR KAWG WITH A BOUNDARY EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS IN THE
40S AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
RECENT RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM ABOUT KAWG TO NEAR KPNT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE WEAK UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE QUAD CITIES...CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND SLOWLY NORTH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
SEEN.
BY EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH CONVECTION BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EVENING THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTION PAST SUNSET.
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. ANY REMAINING RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DRY.
NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80. THIS NEW
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED BETWEEN KBRL AND KUIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FEEDING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDING MOVE EAST ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP. FOR NOW WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS SHOWN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BETTER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TROF IN PLACE AND A SERIES OF S/WS
EJECTING OUT OF THE TROF INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVER ALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HAVE DIFFERENT TAKES ON HANDLING THE
S/WS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS
OUT A MAIN S/W MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE
FRAGMENTED WITH THE S/WS AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY. EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH SUPPORTS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN IOWA
COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AROUND CONVECTION THROUGH 03Z/29. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CONVECTION MEANS THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY PERSIST AT A TAF SITE. AFT
06Z/29 MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO TWEAK GRIDS TO HOURLY OBS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE WITH WHAT COULD BECOME A
BAND OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...AND
EVENTUALLY THE EAST. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON VERY SHORT TERM
EVENTS THUS FAR BUT MAY HAVE INITIATED CONVECTION JUST A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH AND EAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE CORRESPONDING
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS. INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A
TAD BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...WHICH HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR SO OF ADVERTISED HIGHS. SOME JUICY AIR OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STORMS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE QUITE THE SAME PUNCH AND
COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY ATTM. ALSO...MID LEVELS DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH DRY
AIR AS YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE AS MANY REPORTS
OF WIND DAMAGE AS YESTERDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE FOG AND TO NUDGE HOURLY GRIDS
TOWARDS HOURLY OBS. NO NEW DEVELOPMENTS ATTM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT SAW MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY AND THAT HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TODAY. HRRR STILL
SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN 16-18Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM MODELS. THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED UP A BIT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUE.
THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...OR
LOCATIONS WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WAS BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTH-EAST INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. THE WESTERLIES WERE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT DIPPED SOUTH EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY
STATE WITH A TRAILING SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TO A SFC WAVE OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST BUT THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION. OVERALL...THIS
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AS CONVECTION TODAY OR
THURSDAY THAT DEVELOPS PRIMARILY AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS THE FRONT NEARS. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING
AND OR MOISTENING OCCURS FOR CAPE TO REACH 2000 J/KG OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON...A STORM OR TWO MIGHT BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE AND LEAD TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS OCCURRED ON TUE. STORMS SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WORKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THU AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND PERHAPS MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW BOTH DAYS AND PW SHOULD BE AT
ITS HIGHEST ON THURSDAY...NEARING 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. TRAINING COULD
ALSO OCCUR BOTH DAYS...AGAIN THURSDAY MAY BE THE BIGGER CONCERN
THOUGH AS THE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SAGGING
COLD FRONT. SINCE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA FROM ROWAN AND MORGAN
COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY ARE ALREADY PRIMED FROM HEAVY
RAIN ON TUESDAY AND FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1
HOUR AND 2 TO 2.5 IN THREE HOURS IN THESE AREAS...WE HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
SHOULD REALLY GET GOING THROUGH LATE THU EVENING...AROUND 11
PM...WHEN DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND END THE THREAT.
DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE MOIST AIR MASS AND CLOUDS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9
AM OR SO TODAY...BUT SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND IN THE
EXTENDED. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR BENEATH IT THAT WOULD ACT TO TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE LESS ACTIVE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH LOWER POPS THAN THE LATEST
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. ONCE THE
GULF OPENS UP ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORM EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. THE PERIOD WILL FEEL QUITE
SUMMER LIKE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SCATTERED BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT PRESENT NOT SEEING MUCH AROUND ANY
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THEREFORE WENT WITH A PREDOMINANT -SHRA
WITH VCTY THUNDER AND WILL AMEND AS TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY
INTO EACH TERMINAL BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT
MAY BECOME GUSTY AROUND THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MID
LEVELS ARE NOT AS DRY SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THE MAGNITUDE SEEN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK
AND DIMINISH BY AROUND 22Z...CONVECTION WILL TEND TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REFIRE AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT LOZ AND SME AND OTHER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER ABOUT 4Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
BUT BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
060-104-106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
100 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO TWEAK GRIDS TO HOURLY OBS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE WITH WHAT COULD BECOME A
BAND OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...AND
EVENTUALLY THE EAST. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON VERY SHORT TERM
EVENTS THUS FAR BUT MAY HAVE INITIATED CONVECTION JUST A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH AND EAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE CORRESPONDING
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS. INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A
TAD BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...WHICH HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR SO OF ADVERTISED HIGHS. SOME JUICY AIR OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STORMS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE QUITE THE SAME PUNCH AND
COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY ATTM. ALSO...MID LEVELS DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH DRY
AIR AS YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE AS MANY REPORTS
OF WIND DAMAGE AS YESTERDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE FOG AND TO NUDGE HOURLY GRIDS
TOWARDS HOURLY OBS. NO NEW DEVELOPMENTS ATTM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT SAW MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY AND THAT HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TODAY. HRRR STILL
SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN 16-18Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM MODELS. THE HOURLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED UP A BIT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUE.
THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...OR
LOCATIONS WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WAS BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTH-EAST INTO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. THE WESTERLIES WERE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT DIPPED SOUTH EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY
STATE WITH A TRAILING SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TO A SFC WAVE OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST BUT THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION. OVERALL...THIS
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AS CONVECTION TODAY OR
THURSDAY THAT DEVELOPS PRIMARILY AROUND PEAK HEATING IN THE WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AS THE FRONT NEARS. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING
AND OR MOISTENING OCCURS FOR CAPE TO REACH 2000 J/KG OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON...A STORM OR TWO MIGHT BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE AND LEAD TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS OCCURRED ON TUE. STORMS SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WORKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THU AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND PERHAPS MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW BOTH DAYS AND PW SHOULD BE AT
ITS HIGHEST ON THURSDAY...NEARING 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. TRAINING COULD
ALSO OCCUR BOTH DAYS...AGAIN THURSDAY MAY BE THE BIGGER CONCERN
THOUGH AS THE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SAGGING
COLD FRONT. SINCE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA FROM ROWAN AND MORGAN
COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY ARE ALREADY PRIMED FROM HEAVY
RAIN ON TUESDAY AND FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1
HOUR AND 2 TO 2.5 IN THREE HOURS IN THESE AREAS...WE HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION
SHOULD REALLY GET GOING THROUGH LATE THU EVENING...AROUND 11
PM...WHEN DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND END THE THREAT.
DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE MOIST AIRMASS AND CLOUDS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9
AM OR SO TODAY...BUT SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND IN THE
EXTENDED. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IN THE MODELS APPEARS TO
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR BENEATH IT THAT WOULD ACT TO TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE LESS ACTIVE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH LOWER POPS THAN THE LATEST
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. ONCE THE
GULF OPENS UP ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORM EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. THE PERIOD WILL FEEL QUITE
SUMMER LIKE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
AFTER SOME INITIALLY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES AND IFR IN SOME VALLEY
AIRPORTS SUCH AS I39...W38...AND 1A6 THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 16Z TO 17Z. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK AND DIMINISH BY 22Z...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT LOZ
AND SME AND OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER ABOUT 4Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
060-104-106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.AVIATION...
UPPER LVL LOW OVHD. VERY MOIST AIRMASS PRODUCING SCATTERED
CONVECTION OF MAINLY SMALL DIAMETER CELLS OF MDT/HEAVY RAIN.
OCNL LTG EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS OVER
NORTH LA..LIMITING AFTN HEATING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
FROM CLOUD DECKS. CONVECTION INCREASING MOST RAPIDLY SW AR...WITH
EASTERLY MOVEMENT AROUND NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO KTXK TERMINAL ARA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION OVER NE TX...TO THE WEST OF UPPER LOW...WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SWD. KTYR...KGGG...AND KLFK MAY REMAIN IN VCNTY OF
THIS CONVECTION. LOW VFR CIGS WILL REDUCE TO MOSTLY MVFR...WITH
SOME IFR CIG AND FOG ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NE TX
IN MORE NORTHERLY FLOW...MAY REMAIN MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS OUT CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK AND SW AR...MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR IS TRYING FILL IN ACROSS SE TX
INTO SW LA IN THE WAKE OF EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE
TX COAST INTO S LA ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS IS DEPICTING A
WEAK MCV SPINNING JUST SOUTHEAST OF AEX WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVC ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AS WELL.
FOR THE UPDATE...FOLLOWED THE HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT OUR EASTERN
PARISHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN WET WHILE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE TIED TO ANY
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HEATING OUR REGION RECEIVES. THEREFORE...
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING
POPS BACK TO SCATTERED VARIETY ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
ZONES.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES AS OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON.
DID LOWER OUR EASTERN ZONES A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE LARGE CANOPY
OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC INCLUDING DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS TO
MIMIC CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 67 82 68 85 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 78 67 82 66 86 / 80 60 70 30 60
DEQ 79 64 81 66 83 / 30 30 50 30 30
TXK 79 65 81 66 83 / 50 30 50 30 40
ELD 77 65 81 66 84 / 80 50 60 30 40
TYR 81 66 81 67 84 / 30 30 30 30 40
GGG 81 66 82 67 84 / 30 30 40 30 40
LFK 81 67 83 68 85 / 50 40 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
117 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH BEFORE RAIN MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
I HAVE ONCE AGAIN UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER MOSTLY CLINTON COUNTY.
OUR FFMP IS SHOWING AROUND 1.8 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR BAD CREEK. A
NEARBY MESONET STATION SHOWS THE DUAL POL PRECIPITATION IS VERY
CLOSE TO WHAT THE RADAR SHOWS. THE RAINFALL IS IN AN ENHANCED LIFT
AREA IN FRONT OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO END BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE I EXPECT THE CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH.
I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
I ADDED FOG TO THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES INTO LATE MORNING AS
WE HAVE REPORTS OF LOCALLY LOW VISIBILITIES AND THE ASOS STATIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94 HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES. I EXPECT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE STRONGLY NORTHEAST ALL OF THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY LATE MORNING.
THE HRRR FROM THE 09Z RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR I-96 AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR
SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE RAP 11Z RUN
SHOWS THE RAIN ALREADY THERE MOVING OUT BY LATE MORNING. GIVEN OUR
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS THE SHOWERS INCREASING I HAVE TO BELIEVE OUR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN MID TO LATE
MORNING... WHICH OF COURSE WOULD HELP TO KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN SO
WE HAVE 60 POPS THERE FOR NOW. THE SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CLEAR ALL AREAS OUT (NE TO SW ) THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM REALLY IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST 12 HRS OR SO OF THE FCST IN THE FORM OF RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER SOME RAIN HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING NE OF GRAND RAPIDS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MI. A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT THREAT OF SOME PATCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AN LOW
CHC OF AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
TIME FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY RAIN ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT SE OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIR MASS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRIER ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SO MOST AREAS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S WITH H850
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TEENS C.
WE THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH MILD TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN. THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE WAVE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WILL EACH DAMPEN
OUT BY THU. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND AND HELPS TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD...AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY APPROACH THE
STATE BY FRI. TEMPS WILL GO UP A NOTCH EACH DAY AS H850 TEMPS INCH
UP A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY. WE COULD SEE 80 ONCE AGAIN BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/SFC LOWS MOVE
ALONG IT. THE SET UP LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS/AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AS OF 17Z. HOWEVER
A BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI BEHIND THE
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WERE SHOWING SIGN OF BREAKING UP ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THIS REGION. EXPECT THE SAME TO SLOWLY HAPPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MI LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE CEILINGS WERE VFR ACROSS I-96...BUT MVFR ACROSS I-94. EXPECT
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR BY DAYBREAK THU...BECOMING ALL VFR BY MID/LATE THU MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR MARINERS IS THE ONGOING POTENTIAL OF
FOG FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY. A LOOK AT WEBCAMS ALONG THE
COAST AND VISIBILITY REPORTS ALONG THE COAST INDICATE THAT FOG IS
NOT A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME FLOATING AROUND
OUT THERE...BUT NOT EVERYWHERE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG
EARLY BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SYCAMORE
CREEK AT HOLT. SOME RIVER LEVELS HAVE EXHIBITED SLOWER RATES OF
DECLINE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL. RAINFALL FROM SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY HAVE A SIMILAR
EFFECT. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE AT MAPLE RAPIDS, IONIA, AND EAGLE. ALL 3
ARE ON THE DECLINE...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY DELAY THE FALL OF THOSE RIVERS
BACK BELOW BANKFULL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE UNDERNEATH A LARGE 500HPA RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT HAS MOVED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED IN
SOUTHERN COLORADO COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE PROVIDING
HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND A CUMULUS FIELD
SHOWED UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BASED ON THE
28/12Z KLBF RAOB. ANY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND THURSDAY HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES
WERE DROPPED A DEGREE OR SO TONIGHT BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE DEW
POINT FORECAST...AND RAISED A DEGREE THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SUNSHINE
AND SOUTH WINDS. MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE GENERAL FLOW AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS A STRONG TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL BRING STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A
MULTITUDE OF WEAK BOUTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE GENERAL
PATTERN...THERE IS SOME DISCONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT WEST
INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH ON
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STARTING THURSDAY EVENING...RIDGING IS STILL WELL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE MAY JUST SKIRT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO LIMITED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PORTIONS OF
SHERIDAN COUNTY.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
CONFINED TO AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AS
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND A FOCUS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER INTO THE EVENING
WHICH WILL THEN SUPPORT STORMS TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER
IT DOESN/T LOOK TO PROGRESS VERY FAR EAST. EXPECTING TO GET
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY COULD GET STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO GET STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
BEYOND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BECOME MORE APPARENT. SO THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ANY DAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEER EACH DAY...THERE ISN/T A PERIOD
THAT LOOKS BETTER THAN OTHERS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHWEST MAY BE A BIT
COOLER IN THE 70S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT
AREA...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 80S. THEN
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AS
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AS FOR LOWS...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO FAR AND WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
KVTN AND NORTH OF KLBF. WIND MAY BE A CONCERN...MAINLY FOR KVTN...AS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY. ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET MAY FORM
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS AT ABOUT 1000 FT AGL AT
KLBF AND 35 KTS AT KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
138 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
BASED ON LATER MODEL RUNS BY THE HRRR AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
UNDERWAY...HAVE SHIFTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FARTHER
WEST. REMOVED MENTION OF POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PLACED
THE MAJORITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HWY 83.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE
THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN
FOR SOME ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE INHIBITION AT 22Z WAS 20
TO 40 J/KG IN THE RAP. SO A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED POP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AROUND 1000
J/KG AND 20 KTS IN A NRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HOWEVER IS THE PROPER
BALANCE FOR WEAKLY ROTATING TSTMS AS INDICATED BY THE BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 45 SO A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STRATEGY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY USING
THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
H700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE WILL BE
PICKING UP A 20 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE 4 CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A SUMMER LIKE END TO MAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA
OTHERWISE CAP SHOULD HOLD. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN AS THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY.
AS TEMPS WARM...CAP WEAKENS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS/STORMS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH MID 80S TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. LL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN/EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVER
DURING THE NIGHT. SHEAR IS ON THE INCREASE AND THINK ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH EACH PASSING WAVE ALONG WITH PEAK
HEATING...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED. TIMING/COVERAGE STILL
IN QUESTION AND WILL WAIT TO UP POPS ABOVE HIGH CHANCE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM THE
NW...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WARMEST WHERE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS APPEAR...ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
STILL THINKING SW FLOW...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES LESSEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT DROP TO SEASONAL MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
KVTN AND NORTH OF KLBF. WIND MAY BE A CONCERN...MAINLY FOR KVTN...AS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY. ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET MAY FORM
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS AT ABOUT 1000 FT AGL AT
KLBF AND 35 KTS AT KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A CHECK OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE
THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS THIS AFTN
FOR SOME ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE INHIBITION AT 22Z WAS 20
TO 40 J/KG IN THE RAP. SO A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED POP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AROUND 1000
J/KG AND 20 KTS IN A NRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HOWEVER IS THE PROPER
BALANCE FOR WEAKLY ROTATING TSTMS AS INDICATED BY THE BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 45 SO A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STRATEGY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY USING
THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
H700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE WILL BE
PICKING UP A 20 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE 4 CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A SUMMER LIKE END TO MAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA
OTHERWISE CAP SHOULD HOLD. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN AS THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY.
AS TEMPS WARM...CAP WEAKENS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS/STORMS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH MID 80S TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. LL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN/EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVER
DURING THE NIGHT. SHEAR IS ON THE INCREASE AND THINK ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH EACH PASSING WAVE ALONG WITH PEAK
HEATING...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED. TIMING/COVERAGE STILL
IN QUESTION AND WILL WAIT TO UP POPS ABOVE HIGH CHANCE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM THE
NW...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WARMEST WHERE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS APPEAR...ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
STILL THINKING SW FLOW...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES LESSEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT DROP TO SEASONAL MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
KVTN AND NORTH OF KLBF. WIND MAY BE A CONCERN...MAINLY FOR KVTN...AS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY. ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET MAY FORM
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS AT ABOUT 1000 FT AGL AT
KLBF AND 35 KTS AT KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. A FEW
CLUSTERS OF PULSEY CELLS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACRS THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS IN
VERY WEAKLY SHEARED PROFILE. MEAN FLOW WOULD TAKE INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ON AN EWD PATH AROUND 10 KT. PER DUAL POL ESTIMATES...THE CORES OF
THESE CELLS HAVE PRODUCED UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR...WITH A FEW TENTHS ADDING UP NEARER THE FRINGES OF THE
CELLS. REVISED POP/QPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS EXPECTING THESE
CLUSTERS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE LATEST ROUND OF SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE GOING FCST OF GREATLY ISOLATED
CELLS LASTING THRU 01-02Z. HRRR SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...EXPECTING THE
FOCUS TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE CELLS ARE APPEARING
TO PROPAGATE.
AS OF 245 PM...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HIGH
DCAPE VALUES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. STILL EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE OVER THE MTNS
AND I-40 CORRIDOR WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE
HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL IS WHERE COVERAGE IS LESS...BUT THERE SHUD
STILL BE ENUF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR A HANDFUL OF
WARNINGS. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL...EVEN THO A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE
ENUF FORCING OR DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHRA OVER
THE NC MTNS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS CHC RELATIVELY LOW. SHUD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE CONVERGENCE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD RAMP UP TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS BY NOON...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF NC AND THE
ERN UPSTATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH SCT COVERAGE SHUD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
EVEN WHERE THE FRONT MOVES IN AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN BETTER
THAN 6.5C/KM...WITH LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...ESP OVER
THE SRN CWFA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH LESS
STEEP AND DCAPE VALUES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS GIVEN
THE INCREASED MOISTURE. SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN A WEAK FLOW REGION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE NERN
US. STILL...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...INCREASED LOW LEVEL FORCING...
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION...ANOTHER DAY WITH A HANDFUL OF
SVR STORMS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
COULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...SLOW MOVING STORMS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN...INCREASED CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH. THEREFORE...HIGHS SHUD BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER LA...AND AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SE
ON FRIDAY....EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY SATURDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE FILLED...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED
TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL EXTEND TO N FL.
A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO GA ON
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...AS THE MODEL SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND VARYING DEGREES OF INSTABILITY...EVEN AT NIGHT
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT COULD
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
CELLS TRAINING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DRYING FROM ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BE LOW TO OCCUR...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY...
SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION RATES. THE BEST COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE MODELS SUPPORT
LINGERING MOISTURE IN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE...WITH MINIMUMS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND MAXIMUMS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGRESSES LITTLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT DOES DEAMPLIFY...BY
WEDNESDAY A NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXISTS FROM THE S TI THE MID ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY.
THIS AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT AN
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST...DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE REMAINING.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER AND SETTLES
FARTHER SOUTH...AND LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN THE BEST BET FOR CONVECTION DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK A THE INITIALLY COOL AIR
MASS MODERATES...DESPITE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO AFTER
COLLABORATION...HAVE TEMPO FROM 21Z-24Z TO COVER. WSW WIND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DEVELOPING BKN VFR CU SHUD SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING THEN RETURN BY NOON. CALM WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT
NE AS BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN A LITTLE SOONER THU AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS WITH A CELL VERY
CLOSE TO KAVL. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY TEMPO THERE...WITH VCTS ALL AREAS
THRU THE AFTERNOON. W TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND NW DURING THE DAY THU. DEVELOPING BKN VFR CU SCATTERS
OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBY AND CIGS AGAIN AT KAVL...WITH MVFR
VSBY KHKY/KAND. VFR RETURNS QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLIER AS A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES IN. ANY LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N
ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND ALSO AT FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN
FALLS. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 91% LOW 52% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WITH DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SMALL AREA OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION
LOCATED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
FOR TODAY...UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG. WITH MLCIN AROUND 100
J/KG AND LACK OF FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUN OF HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH DEEP MIXING EARLY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 25-30C
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS NEAR 90.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS INTO
CANADA...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN WYOMING. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM ON COLD FRONT POSITION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON....RANGING FROM OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING TO EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 90
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL COOLING AND STRATUS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. MOS GUIDANCE HAS A 15-20F RANGE FOR THURSDAY
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL JET
REMAINS ACROSS IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TROF DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND RIDGE HOLDS FAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW...THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
CONSENSUS PUTS BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
236 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN IOWA REGION. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT LIES FROM SOUTHERN IOWA TO NORTHERN INDIANA AND MARKS
THE TRANSITION FROM A HUMID SUMMER AIRMASS AND A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
CANADIAN AIRMASS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLE CONTINUE TO
SHOW UP ON AREA RADARS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS YET TO DEPART...BUT
THE DEEPER CONVECTION RESIDES CLOSER TO THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SHOWER AND
CLOUD TRENDS FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LINGERING AT LEAST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AT THE START OF THE EVENING IF NOT A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT WILL END THE LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CHANCE
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THEN WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASING CLOUD
TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST WINDS ORIGINATING OUT OF THIS HIGH
WILL ADVECT A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
HANGING AROUND THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
DEPART TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...A CHANGE OF AIRMASS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HAVE
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND ON SUNDAY ACROSS EAST. WILL LIKELY
SEE A LARGE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE CONVECTION SINCE FORCING
ALOFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS
ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT COULD IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO
SUBSIDING WAVES. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MPC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND WAS STARTING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST.
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HIGH THEN
QUICKLY BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. THE RAP TAKES THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 19Z WHILE THE NAM HOLDS
ONTO THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES NMM AND ARW ARE IN LINE WITH THE RAP
PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE FORECAST MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THEN THIS CLEARING WILL
WORK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE CLEARING
OCCURRING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WITH THE DRIER
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP SO WILL HOLD THE FOG COVERAGE AT
PATCHY. THE DRIER AIR AND EARLIER CLEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SET UP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A WARM FRONT FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD
BECOME A CONCERN IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES. OUTSIDE OF THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IT/S DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS ON
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES. LIGHT WINDS/MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL/CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOWER
LYING AND RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THINKING THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF
FOG AROUND KLSE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD DUE TO 4-6 DEGREE T/TD SPREAD.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW AROUND 10KT OF WIND OUT OF THE EAST AT
BLUFFTOP LEVEL FOR KEEPING THINGS STIRRED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH A P6SM BCFG AT KLSE FROM 08-12Z TIME
FRAME AND HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT CONTINUE MONITORING. KRST LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST WINDS OF 11-16KT THIS
AFTERNOON DECOUPLING AND REMAINING BELOW 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS