Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/27/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
825 PM MST MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG HEATING TREND THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. DRYING OUT AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO .56 ON THE 00Z SOUNDING. WITH THE MUCH
WEAKER FLOW WE PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE ADMITTEDLY
MEAGER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT IT COULD BE A GOOD STARTING
POINT FOR THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGE WE SEE THIS WEEK. HOT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR TRENDS ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP SOME NICE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TUESDAY
MORNING. NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING OVER OUR
AREA WILL REPLACE IT...WITH A STEEP WARMING TREND TO PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST 105 DEG DAY AT KTUS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HELPING TO DRAW UP SOME MID-LVL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WED. AS OF RIGHT NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIP TO COME INTO THE PICTURE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A
PIECE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE AMANDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AREA WIDE THRU FRI NIGHT. AS PER USUAL...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER THAT...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF. GFS TRIES TO BRING A TROF DOWN FROM THE PAC NW AND THRU
NRN AZ WITH SWLY JET ALOFT. CONVERSELY...ECMWF KEEPS THIS TROF WELL
TO OUR NORTH...OVER NRN CA AND NEVADA...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER SONORA/CHIHUAHUA MEXICO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER SCENARIO COULD BRING THE RETURN OF DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH EITHER SOLUTION KEEPS
SERN AZ DRY...HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS TIME IN
TERMS OF TEMPS ON SUN AND MON.
IN SUMMARY...A QUICK WARM UP EARLY THIS WK FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGS F
OF COOLING WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURS
AND FRI. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/04Z. CLEAR AND HOTTER AS WITH A DRY AND
WEAKENING NW FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WLY TO NWLY
SFC WIND THRU 8-16 KTS EXCEPT 16-23 KTS NE OF WILCOX. NORMAL DIURNAL
SURFACE WIND TRENDS...EASING TO LESS THAN 7 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICKING UP AGAIN TO 7-14 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. MIN RH LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 5-15
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTING NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS THOSE TWO DAYS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WHILE ALSO TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WESTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND. ALL THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND HOT
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/ZELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1042 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALREADY A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING. WILL BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WITH
THE PUEBLO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FALL TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DRIER AIR MAY HELP CLEAR SKIES AND
ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. A WEAK PUSH FROM THE NORTH HAS SET UP
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONVERGENCE ALONG IT MAY
HELP STORMS FORM.
SINCE CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO FORM...DON`T THINK THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THINGS. EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE LATEST RAP IS ALSO SHOWING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF
I-25. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK THOUGH MAY TWEAK POPS UP
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. STILL A SLIGHT THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SWRN CO EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THUR THIS AFTN. BY TONIGHT IT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE
OVER ERN CO AS A WK BNDRY MOVES SOUTH FM SERN WY INTO NERN CO BY
AFTN.
OVERALL THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
1. THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
LVL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO MOVES NNW ACROSS THE
AREA IN SELY MID LVL FLOW. AS A RESULT THIS WOULD LIMIT HEATING
THIS AFTN AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONGER TSTMS OVER NERN CO AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS TO A MINIMUM WHICH WOULD REDUCE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH AS WE SAY YESTERDAY A FEW STORMS STILL WERE
ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS.
2. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO BREAK APART AND
ALLOWING FOR BETTER HEATING THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ALLOWING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. IF THIS SCENARIO DVLPS IT
APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FM NORTH OF DENVER TO THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE
WEAK BNDRY MOVING SOUTH FM SERN WY ENHANCES LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION WITH ESE MID LVL FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LYR THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE BNDRY. OVERALL
THIS WOULD BE THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
3. THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SCENARIO BETWEEN #1 AND #2 WHERE WE SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WHICH
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT NOT A WIDESPREAD
EVENT.
AT THIS POINT ITS REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SCENARIO IS FAVORED AS IT
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY THERE ALSO COULD BE
SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL.
IN THE MTNS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL BY MIDDAY WITH
THE SNOW LEVELS ABV 10000 FEET WHERE A FEW INCHES MAY OCCUR. FOR
TONIGHT MOST PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MODELS HAVE AND UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
THEN DOWNSLOPING MONDAY OVER NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST
OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE UPSLOPING WITH NORMAL TRENDS AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE PROGGED ON MONDAY...
DRYING OUT A TAD MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS DRIER AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DRIES A BIT MORE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
40S F FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THEY DECREASE A BIT. CAPE
IS PRETTY LIMITED BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATER DAY TUESDAY...
THEN NO AREAS OF THE CWA ON ANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING VALUES ABOVE
1000 J/KG. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE MORNING INCLUDED. THERE IS NOTHING
AFTER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TAD PROGGED
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA ONLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
POPS...WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN
BARELY NOTHING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
WARM UP ANOTHER 2-4 C FROM MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS NOT
GREAT...BUT INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN AFTER 18Z.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
IF A STRONGER STORM DOES MOVE ACROSS COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FOR 30 TO 45 MINUTES. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT SHOULD BECOME
EASTERLY AROUND 18Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS MAY MOVE ACROSS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS IN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES ARE RUNNING
HIGH DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES TO ALERT PEOPLE OF THE
HIGH WATER.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL ADD TO
THE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL COLORADO. THERE
WILL BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN AND
STAY OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR AN HOUR OR 2.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SWRN CO EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THUR THIS AFTN. BY TONIGHT IT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE
OVER ERN CO AS A WK BNDRY MOVES SOUTH FM SERN WY INTO NERN CO BY
AFTN.
OVERALL THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
1. THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
LVL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO MOVES NNW ACROSS THE
AREA IN SELY MID LVL FLOW. AS A RESULT THIS WOULD LIMIT HEATING
THIS AFTN AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONGER TSTMS OVER NERN CO AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS TO A MINIMUM WHICH WOULD REDUCE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH AS WE SAY YESTERDAY A FEW STORMS STILL WERE
ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS.
2. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO BREAK APART AND
ALLOWING FOR BETTER HEATING THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ALLOWING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. IF THIS SCENARIO DVLPS IT
APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FM NORTH OF DENVER TO THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE
WEAK BNDRY MOVING SOUTH FM SERN WY ENHANCES LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION WITH ESE MID LVL FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LYR THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE BNDRY. OVERALL
THIS WOULD BE THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
3. THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SCENARIO BETWEEN #1 AND #2 WHERE WE SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WHICH
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT NOT A WIDESPREAD
EVENT.
AT THIS POINT ITS REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SCENARIO IS FAVORED AS IT
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY THERE ALSO COULD BE
SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL.
IN THE MTNS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL BY MIDDAY WITH
THE SNOW LEVELS ABV 10000 FEET WHERE A FEW INCHES MAY OCCUR. FOR
TONIGHT MOST PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MODELS HAVE AND UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
THEN DOWNSLOPING MONDAY OVER NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MONRING. THE REST
OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE UPSLOPING WITH NORMAL TRENDS AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE PROGGED ON MONDAY...
DRYING OUT A TAD MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS DRIER AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DRIES A BIT MORE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
40S F FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THEY DECREASE A BIT. CAPE
IS PRETTY LIMITED BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATER DAY TUESDAY...
THEN NO AREAS OF THE CWA ON ANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING VALUES ABOVE
1000 J/KG. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE MORNING INCLUDED. THERE IS NOTHING
AFTER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TAD PROGGED
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA ONLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
POPS...WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN
BARELY NOTHING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
WARM UP ANOTHER 2-4 C FROM MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS NOT
GREAT...BUT INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
333 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DVLP BY 19Z HOWEVER
IT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE WK
BNDRY AS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE. IF A STRONGER STORM DOES MOVE ACROSS
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
FOR 30 TO 45 MINUTES. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BECOME DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT ELY BY 18Z. LATEST RAP SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM
CONVECTION NEAR THE FOOTHILLS MOVING ACROSS BY 21Z WITH A SHIFT TO
THE NW AND THEN MORE NLY BY 00Z. BY MID EVENING WINDS MAY SHIFT TO
MORE WLY AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
RIVER ARE BEGINNING TO RISE WITH SOME GETTING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
IN GRAND AND JACKSON COUNTIES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SO FAR MOST
STREAMS ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES EXCEPT FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE NEAR
GREELEY WHICH MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE ON MON.
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FM BOULDER NORTH TO FORT COLLINS
WITH UP TO ONE INCH IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS. HOWEVER IF IT LOOKS LIKE
SCENARIO #2 TALKED ABOVE IS TAKING SHAPE THEN HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 45 MINUTES WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SOME FLASH FLOODING WHERE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAIN.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID WEEK SO SNOW MELT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVERS/STREAMS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION..RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1233 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE
WORCESTER HILLS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ALREADY 71-73 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND ON
TRACK TO REACH MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -20C AND FORECAST TO WARM TO ONLY -18C BY
00Z. WITH SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70-75 RANGE OVER THE CT VALLEY
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY NH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP FOCUSES MOST
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MA AND RI BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST HEATING AND
MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE IN CT AND WESTERN MA. SO...WE HAVE
CHANCE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE KEPT THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHERLY 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
GUST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS BUT MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL. THE HAIL COULD REACH 1 INCH DIAMETER IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS.
SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...PEOPLE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE SKY AND
REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES.
NOTING CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL TEND TO KEEP A
GENERALLY NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...BRINGING SHORT WAVES ACROSS
WITH SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
WARM AIR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...BUT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND NEW BRUNSWICK TRY
TO INTRUDE. BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH... RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECENS MEANS. OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVE IN
THE BUILDING NW UPPER FLOW LATE THIS WEEK NOTED.
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW BLASTS S OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC IN THE UPPER
FLOW...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY S-SW OUT OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND S ME. WILL SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE INTO NE MA/S
NH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO WORK S.
WILL ALSO SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH H5
TEMPS BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...ALONG WITH THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE E COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ALSO NOTING FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES
IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S AROUND -1. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...SO WILL SEE E-NE WINDS PICK
UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS OFF THE OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 50S ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND
50 FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUE RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY ALONG THE
E COAST BEFORE FALLING BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FROM W CENTRAL MA/W RI AND NE CT WESTWARD.
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES NOSES ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL PATTERN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE GUSTY E-NE WINDS ALONG S COASTAL
AREAS UP TO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ONLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON THU.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND EVEN A FEW CLOSED LOWS CROSSING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS THIS FAR OUT GENERALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THESE
FEATURES...AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT
CONTINUITY GOING IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING SCT SHOWERS LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI. NOTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE... PRODUCING
HAIL AND UP TO 35 TO 45 KT WIND GUSTS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN EASTERN
MA AND RI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FOG COVER...THEN
VFR. OTHERWISE VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GUST UP TO
25 KT FOR E COASTAL TERMINALS.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND E-NE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KT. SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS MAY START TO DIMINISH DURING THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...GAF/FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST OF EASTERN MA AND RI AS OF 1030 AM BUT
LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS. IN SOUTHERN NH...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA...AND NORTHERN CT SKIES WERE SUNNY. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT IN EASTERN AREAS.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -20C AND FORECAST TO WARM TO ONLY -18C BY
00Z. WITH SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70-75 RANGE OVER THE CT VALLEY
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY NH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP FOCUSES MOST
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MA AND RI BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST HEATING AND
MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE IN CT AND WESTERN MA. SO...WE HAVE
CHANCE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE KEPT THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHERLY 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
GUST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS BUT MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL. THE HAIL COULD REACH 1 INCH DIAMETER IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS.
SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...PEOPLE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE SKY AND
REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES.
NOTING CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL TEND TO KEEP A
GENERALLY NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...BRINGING SHORT WAVES ACROSS
WITH SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
WARM AIR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...BUT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND NEW BRUNSWICK TRY
TO INTRUDE. BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH... RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECENS MEANS. OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVE IN
THE BUILDING NW UPPER FLOW LATE THIS WEEK NOTED.
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW BLASTS S OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC IN THE UPPER
FLOW...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY S-SW OUT OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND S ME. WILL SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE INTO NE MA/S
NH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO WORK S.
WILL ALSO SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH H5
TEMPS BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...ALONG WITH THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE E COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ALSO NOTING FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES
IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S AROUND -1. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...SO WILL SEE E-NE WINDS PICK
UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS OFF THE OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 50S ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND
50 FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUE RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY ALONG THE
E COAST BEFORE FALLING BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FROM W CENTRAL MA/W RI AND NE CT WESTWARD.
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES NOSES ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL PATTERN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE GUSTY E-NE WINDS ALONG S COASTAL
AREAS UP TO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ONLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON THU.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND EVEN A FEW CLOSED LOWS CROSSING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS THIS FAR OUT GENERALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THESE
FEATURES...AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT
CONTINUITY GOING IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING SCT SHOWERS LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI. NOTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS
IN EASTERN MA AND RI BURN OFF BY NOON. OTHERWISE VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...
PRODUCING HAIL AND UP TO 35 TO 45 KT WIND GUSTS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY PRECIP.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GUST UP TO
25 KT FOR E COASTAL TERMINALS.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND E-NE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KT. SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS MAY START TO DIMINISH DURING THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/EVT/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
507 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS***
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS FOR THAT.
OTHERWISE...A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 6.5C TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30
TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-20C...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A FEW OF THE STORMS. CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF HIT/MISS VARIETY...SO
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES.
NOTING CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL TEND TO KEEP A
GENERALLY NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...BRINGING SHORT WAVES ACROSS
WITH SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
WARM AIR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...BUT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND NEW BRUNSWICK TRY
TO INTRUDE. BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH... RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECENS MEANS. OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVE IN
THE BUILDING NW UPPER FLOW LATE THIS WEEK NOTED.
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW BLASTS S OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC IN THE UPPER
FLOW...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY S-SW OUT OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND S ME. WILL SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE INTO NE MA/S
NH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO WORK S.
WILL ALSO SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH H5
TEMPS BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...ALONG WITH THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE E COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ALSO NOTING FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES
IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S AROUND -1. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...SO WILL SEE E-NE WINDS PICK
UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS OFF THE OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 50S ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND
50 FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUE RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY ALONG THE
E COAST BEFORE FALLING BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FROM W CENTRAL MA/W RI AND NE CT WESTWARD.
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES NOSES ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL PATTERN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE GUSTY E-NE WINDS ALONG S COASTAL
AREAS UP TO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ONLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON THU.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND EVEN A FEW CLOSED LOWS CROSSING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS THIS FAR OUT GENERALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THESE
FEATURES...AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT
CONTINUITY GOING IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING SCT SHOWERS LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI. NOTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS WERE
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
COVERED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MEANWHILE...SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE STILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING 35 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GUST UP TO 25 KT FOR E COASTAL TERMINALS.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND E-NE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KT. SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS MAY START TO DIMINISH DURING THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS***
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS FOR THAT.
OTHERWISE...A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 6.5C TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30
TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-20C...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A FEW OF THE STORMS. CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF HIT/MISS VARIETY...SO
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG EACH COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY EACH TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND ARRIVES TUESDAY...THE SECOND ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS...THE PATTERN INDICATES
SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR TIMING WITH FROPA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER THE EXACT TIMING...THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STABILITY
IS MARGINAL WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE 6-6.5C/KM AND TOTALS UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. COULD BE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO
SIGNS OF AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE CHANGE AFTER FROPA AS WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE PRIOR TO FROPA AND THE
GREATEST COOLING AFTER PASSAGE WILL BE IN EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED WARMEST MAX TEMPS IN THE CT VALLEY WITH VALUES NEAR
80...AND VALUES 70-75 IN EASTERN MASS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER
DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
OVERVIEW...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND AN AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER AREA OF
VORTICITY THAN THE GFS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH SEEM TO FORCE THE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND TO HANDLE THIS EXCEPT FOR THE CMC WHICH
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
THURSDAY...SOME ENERGY AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD ALLOWS FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THAT IS AS FAR
AS THEY COME DURING THE DAY. HAVE STILL ALLOWED FOR CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY ON AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY INDEXES SHOW A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH THE TOTAL OF TOTALS MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 50 WITH PATCHES OF 50 AROUND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE DAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEARING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS WERE
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
COVERED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MEANWHILE...SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE STILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING 35 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS FOG MAY EXPAND A
BIT FURTHER THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
COOL. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...SO
WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THAT REGION TOWARDS 12Z.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*** FEW STRONG STORMS SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ***
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP SUN AS
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN NW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH SB CAPES MAINLY UNDER
1000 J/KG...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ WILL YIELD STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THAT COMBINED WITH DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF
30-35KT MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON. FOCUS MAY END UP BEING NEAR SEA
BREEZE FRONT WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOCATIONS NEAR I-495 CORRIDOR SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR. CONVECTION MAY END UP DEVELOPING LATE
SUN MORNING IN FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT AM
MORE CONFIDENT MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 70S AWAY FROM COAST...WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN 60S.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MEANS PROCESS MAY BE SLOWER THAN WHAT
IS NORMALLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG EACH COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY EACH TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND ARRIVES TUESDAY...THE SECOND ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS...THE PATTERN INDICATES
SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY... WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN NH. THE FOCUS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ACROSS MAINE-NH-
VT...WITH MOST OF ANY SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN NH AND
NORTHEAST MASS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR HEATING.
MIXING LEVELS WILL REACH AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 12-14C...SO MAX TEMPS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL REACH 20-25 KNOTS...SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THAT RANGE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR TIMING WITH FROPA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER THE EXACT TIMING...THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STABILITY
IS MARGINAL WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE 6-6.5C/KM AND TOTALS UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. COULD BE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO
SIGNS OF AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE CHANGE AFTER FROPA AS WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE PRIOR TO FROPA AND THE
GREATEST COOLING AFTER PASSAGE WILL BE IN EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED WARMEST MAX TEMPS IN THE CT VALLEY WITH VALUES NEAR
80...AND VALUES 70-75 IN EASTERN MASS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER
DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
OVERVIEW...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND AN AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER AREA OF
VORTICITY THAN THE GFS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH SEEM TO FORCE THE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND TO HANDLE THIS EXCEPT FOR THE CMC WHICH
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
THURSDAY...SOME ENERGY AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD ALLOWS FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THAT IS AS FAR
AS THEY COME DURING THE DAY. HAVE STILL ALLOWED FOR CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY ON AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY INDEXES SHOW A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH THE TOTAL OF TOTALS MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 50 WITH PATCHES OF 50 AROUND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE DAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEARING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS WERE
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
COVERED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MEANWHILE...SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE STILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG...PRODUCING 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW
PROBABILITY OF ONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS ON OUTER WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.
BAND OF SHOWERS DROPS S ACROSS WATERS EARLY TONIGHT... MAINLY ON
E MA WATERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUN AFTERNOON ON NEAR SHORE
WATERS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35KT GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED FARTHER INLAND NEAR SEA BREEZE
FRONT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS SUN NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-6
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THESE WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
117 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. CURRENT MODELS RUNS SHOW WIND CONTINUING AT
AROUND 5-7KT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO ONLY
BLANKETED THE LIGHT EAST WIND AFT 02Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR BUT TOOK OUT
MENTION OF VCSH IN THE KAPF TAF SINCE IT APPEARS AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND, THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS JACKSONVILLE
THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GA. PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY AND INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE WNW
INTERIOR AREAS BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z.
MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT PASSED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ARE NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE EAST COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
L/V SURFACE WIND EARLY AND SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND
16Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SO PLACED VCSH IN THE KAPF TAF BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
WILL ONLY PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THEY PUSH WELL INLAND.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE, TO THE NORTH, WILL HOLD ON AND KEEP THE WEATHER
MOSTLY QUIET FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE SEA BREEZE AND THE GULF
BREEZE COLLIDE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
BY MID WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE, ALLOWING
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE REGULAR
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. IT IS SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA
MOSTLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH WAY THINGS WILL GO. WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE GULF COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EAST
COAST SITES WITH ANOTHER WELL ESTABLISHED GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. A
FEW SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT KAPF BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
CARRY MORE THAN VCSH ATTM.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. NO SWELL IS EXPECTED AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS JACKSONVILLE
THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GA. PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY AND INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE WNW
INTERIOR AREAS BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z.
MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT PASSED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ARE NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE EAST COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
L/V SURFACE WIND EARLY AND SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND
16Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SO PLACED VCSH IN THE KAPF TAF BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
WILL ONLY PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THEY PUSH WELL INLAND.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE, TO THE NORTH, WILL HOLD ON AND KEEP THE WEATHER
MOSTLY QUIET FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE SEA BREEZE AND THE GULF
BREEZE COLLIDE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
BY MID WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE, ALLOWING
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE REGULAR
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. IT IS SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA
MOSTLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH WAY THINGS WILL GO. WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE GULF COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EAST
COAST SITES WITH ANOTHER WELL ESTABLISHED GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. A
FEW SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT KAPF BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
CARRY MORE THAN VCSH ATTM.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. NO SWELL IS EXPECTED AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 86 77 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 88 77 87 76 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 90 72 91 70 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT ARRIVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. THE SOUTHERN SPLIT
OF THIS FLOW DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO A
LARGE CLOSED LOW FEATURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS FLOW
THEN EJECTS EASTWARD AND RIDGES UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/SOUTHERN MS VALLEYS BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN A NW/ZONAL FLOW CONFIGURATION ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR HEADS
WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING HIGH ABOVE THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN A
ZONE OF VERY WEAK GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SINK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATER TODAY AND
HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT SOMEWHAT FOR OUR LOCALLY
AREA. THIS BUILDING GRADIENT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AS IT
MIGHT HELP TO FOCUS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE LATE TODAY TO DEVELOP A FEW WIDELY SCT STORMS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. MORE ABOUT THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MOST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. UNLIKE PAST DAYS...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST WILL RESULT IN
A DEVELOPING EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY.
THIS SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SEA-BREEZE A BIT MORE
SHALLOW TODAY AND ALSO PREVENT ITS INLAND PENETRATION MUCH FURTHER
THAN APPROX THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SO...PARTY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD DIURNAL HEATING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BEACHES WILL AGAIN SEE 80S AS THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW TRANSPORTS
THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OFF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHELF
WATERS.
LATER IN THE DAY (AFTER 3-4PM) GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE REALLY BECOMING DEFINED ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. NOW...IF THIS WAS A MONTH FROM NOW...WE
WOULD LIKELY BE PREDICTING A HIGH COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...AS AN EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS FAVORED FOR FL WEST COAST
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF
THE SEASON. THE NEAR SHORE WATERS STILL NEED TO WARM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...AND DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING. THETA-E VALUES AROUND
10,000FT ARE UNDER 320K...AND CONVECTIVE CELLS DO NOT LIKE THIS KIND
IF ENVIRONMENT AS DRY AIR IS QUICKLY ENTRAINED INTO THE UPDRAFT AND
THE STORM STRUGGLES TO GROW. ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SEMI-HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SURFACE FOCUS...AND A POCKET
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE LEVELS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCT DEVELOPMENT. THE COOLEST
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF I-4...AND HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES 40-45% OVER THE NATURE COAST. 25-30% RAIN CHANCES SEEM
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND SUNCOAST ZONES UNDER THE LESS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
LOCAL HI-RES WRFARW RUNS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR THEIR MOVEMENT TO BE A MIGRATION WESTWARD
OFF THE COAST WITH TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...BOATERS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DARKER SKIES TO THE EAST
LATE TODAY SO THEY DO NOT BECOME CUT OFF FROM SHORE BY ANY OF THESE
ISOLATED STORMS.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MIGRATE OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING
SETTING UP A GENERALLY DRY AND WARM REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY AND ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!!!
&&
MID TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUMP UP AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND POCKET OF COLD
AIR ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
MAY BE STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE LONG
RANGE AS CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FILL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL BUILD A STRONG U/L RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH WILL BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA. PREFER ECMWF EVOLUTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA VERSUS THE GFS WHICH EXTENDS AN EAST COAST TROUGH
SOUTH OVER THE REGION WHICH CREATES A SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST IN THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST. U/L RIDGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT EACH
DAY AS A BACKDOOR CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO COLLIDE OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY COLLISION.
GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE GFS AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF
SOLUTION...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE FOR THE MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF KLAL AND KPGD.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING
HOURS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW WIDELY SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS WILL BE
BRIEF IN NATURE...BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH WESTWARD OFF THE COAST BY THE
LATER EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR REGION TODAY AND MONDAY WILL
THEN SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES.
THOSE PLANNING ON BOATING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED BY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN
MIGRATE WESTWARD OFF THE COAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS
TIME...NO WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 74 90 73 / 30 30 20 10
FMY 94 73 92 71 / 30 20 20 10
GIF 94 71 92 70 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 90 73 87 71 / 30 30 20 10
BKV 94 69 91 66 / 40 30 20 10
SPG 91 76 90 74 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT
CAE/CUB UNTIL AROUND 13Z. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE
CSRA TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATER TODAY...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT. FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA AT CAE/CUB FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA TODAY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS
TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK CLOUDS
MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
RECENT HOURS. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA AT CAE/CUB/OGB FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE
CSRA TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NEED
TO AMEND IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
316 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
RECENT HOURS. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA AT CAE/CUB/OGB FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE
CSRA TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NEED
TO AMEND IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
704 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
430 PM CDT
AREAS OF PULSY SUMMERTIME-TYPE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL WITH ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SLIGHT UNDULATING IN
EXACT AREAS AND COVERAGE BUT IN GENERAL STAYING NEAR THE SAME
THROUGH 7-8 PM OR SO. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STORM CORES
ASCENDING AND DESCENDING QUICKLY...WITH CORE HEIGHTS REMAINING
BELOW SEVERE HAIL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER
MANY OF THESE STORMS DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND CLOUD BASE OBSERVATIONS ADAPTED INTO RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS AND A SMALL MICROBURST POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
245 PM CDT
A TRANSITION TO LESS SETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POISED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RECENTLY BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOVELY WEATHER IS NOW POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ROUGHLY
FOUR...RIDING OVER THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CHANNEL...WITH THE FIRST ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS MATCH SATELLITE DATA IN SHOWING THE FOURTH IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THIS WOULD REACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN BETWEEN...WILL
PLAN TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TWO INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNFOCUSED WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRAP THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT POOLS ALONG A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE LAKE AND TOWARD THE WI LINE...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OTHER
EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY FRIDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
FURTHER BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SHRA/ISOLD TSRA END EARLY THIS EVENING
* A PERIOD OF VRB/POSSIBLY EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING
* SCTD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY DEVELOPING LATE TUES AFTERNOON INTO TUES
EVENING
* WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED TUES EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO ACCELERATE TYPICAL
DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS NOW COULD GET BRIEFLY A
LITTLE SQUIRRELY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN TURN LIGHT EASTERLY FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN THE PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS
THIS EVENING SO KEPT OUT OF THE TAF AND WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENT IF NEEDED. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LOWER
CIGS OR EVEN LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND WITH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE REGION. THE STORMS AND
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WOULD ANTICIPATE LAKE
MICHIGAN TO GET INVOLVED WITH THIS FRONT AND ENHANCE IT RESULTING
IN AN ACCELERATION SOUTHWARD AND A STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR.
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE COULD SPREAD AS
FAR INLAND AS ORD/MDW IN THE WAKE OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WITH
ALSO THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS...POSSIBLY EVEN IFR.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ENDING EARLY THIS
EVENING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TUES EVENING...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING/POTENTIAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY TUESDAY EVENING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GENERALLY EAST OR
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
158 PM CDT
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE
COVERAGE EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO PRODUCE A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
RESULT WILL BE NOT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST WITH VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR POISED TO SLIDE OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THEN A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...AND BRING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...WITH WINDS FINALLY TURNING NORTHWEST/NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG. THEN THRU THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK
WINDS REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WAVES TO GROW LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE GRADIENT IS ABLE TO INCREASE...WAVES WOULD LIKELY
BUILD HIGHER WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
807 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE...
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXPANSIVE
RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. DESPITE THIS
FACT...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/CVA ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE WILL HELP NUDGE THIS COLD
FRONT SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF. A COMPARISON OF THE 12Z KILX AND KDTX SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATES
THIS ONGOING MOISTURE SURGE. LOCAL PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 1.75 INCHES BY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER A SLOW START THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FINALLY SURGED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OUR
AREA. LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FINALLY NOSING INTO OUR CWA DESPITE PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE PROBLEM HERE REMAINS A LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT/TRIGGERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL DEPEND ON FINER
SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR GENERATES SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 22Z BUT SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER 00Z WHEN WHATEVER IS LEFT OF CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS FINALLY WASHES INTO OUR CWA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES US THOUGH. WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER END CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. IN VERY SUMMER-LIKE FASHION...EXPECT "POPCORN"
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LOW SEVERE RISK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT/LIMITED SHEAR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER.
SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PREVENT ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW HOWEVER. MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LITTLE
TO NO CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LOW...GENERALLY 1000
J/KG OR LESS...AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER RISK
IS THEREFORE LOW BUT ONCE AGAIN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING
AND TRAINING STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO MOVG THROUGH TOP OF WRN GRTLKS RIDGE THIS AFTN
EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD TO THE ERN GRTLKS BY TUE EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC
CDFNT TRAILING WSW THROUGH MN WILL BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA TUE NGT... THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH WED NGT. SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. INITIALLY WK DRY AIR PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION
PSBL EVEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL IN/OH. VERY WK FLOW/MOIST
AIRMASS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PSBL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTN/EVE WHEN
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED.
FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL
CONUS/CANADA AGAIN THU-FRI AS WEST COAST TROF DEEPENS. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... BUT STILL APPEARS IT
MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH TSTMS AND A FROPA IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE... WITH FROPA LOWERING TEMPS BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE
CHCS/TRENDS. OVERALL WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES PROVING
DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTIVE SUSTENANCE THIS EVENING. INCREASING
STABILILTY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MODEST STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM/VEERING LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIKELY HASTEN LULL IN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
WEAKENING TRENDS OF SHRA/TSRA TO SW-W OF KFWA HAVE ONLY VCSH
MENTION AND FOCUS ON GREATER COVERAGE AREA TO WEST OF KSBN ALONG
WITH APPROACH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...DESPITE LOW POINT/AIRFIELD
CHANCES SIGNALS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS MENTION
NEXT 4 HOURS. OTHERWISE...GREATER CHANCES FOR TSRA MAY HOLD UNTIL
MAXIMUM DIURNAL INSOLATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper level low moves over the region Monday night into Tuesday
with thunderstorm chances decreasing from west to east towards
sunrise Tuesday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible
across central and south central Kansas Tuesday afternoon moving out
of the forecast area Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy skies are expected
Monday night with decreasing clouds on Tuesday. Upper level ridging
then builds across the Plains throughout the remainder of the week
with drier air moving into the mid levels of the atmosphere. This
will lead to mostly clear skies and dry conditions as we go into the
weekend. Winds will generally be from the southeast throughout this
period as high pressure builds across the area. Meanwhile, an upper
level long wave trough will dig into the Western United states with
shortwaves moving around the periphery. Models suggest a few of
these shortwaves moving towards the forecast area this weekend
bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise expect partly cloudy
skies. A general warming pattern is expected during the extended
period with lows starting out in the upper 50s Tuesday morning with
mid 60s possible by this weekend. Highs will start out in the lower
80s Tuesday with upper 80s expected Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The weather regime will change very little over the next 24 hours
as a large upper low sitting over the Rockies the past several
days, spins slowly east into the Great Plains. This will bring
yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
the GCK and DDC terminals late this afternoon to evening along
with brief MVFR ceilings. In addition, light winds and a very
humid airmass may bring some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions
late tonight into early on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 79 58 84 / 30 50 50 20
GCK 57 79 56 85 / 30 40 40 10
EHA 55 78 56 86 / 50 30 30 10
LBL 57 78 57 85 / 40 50 50 10
HYS 59 79 58 84 / 20 40 40 20
P28 63 79 61 82 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...AJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1256 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper low that has been sitting over the Desert Southwest over
the past several days will be moving out of the central Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains during the first few days of the extended
period. Monday morning, the upper low will be located along the
Colorado/New Mexico border while a shortwave trough rotates north
around the east side of the low through central Kansas. Model
soundings are not overly unstable through this time period. Given
that the upper level cold pool associated with the low will be
moving out over western Kansas, I would expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms develop during the day. Showers
and storms should be more focused over central Kansas with the
shortwave as it moves north during the day.
The upper low moves out through the Panhandle region into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and continues southeast on Wednesday.
As the upper low moves east, there will be some lingering chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and south central
Kansas, closer to the upper low. Far western Kansas should dry out
as upper level ridging builds eastward.
Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge dominates the central
Plains. Chances for thunderstorms will increase toward the weekend
as southwesterly flow aloft increases and shortwave troughs lift out
of the southwestern states through the central and northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The weather regime will change very little over the next 24 hours
as a large upper low sitting over the Rockies the past several
days, spins slowly east into the Great Plains. This will bring
yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
the GCK and DDC terminals late this afternoon to evening along
with brief MVFR ceilings. In addition, light winds and a very
humid airmass may bring some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions
late tonight into early on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 50 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 20 40 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 60 30 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 50 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...AJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
645 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper low that has been sitting over the Desert Southwest over
the past several days will be moving out of the central Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains during the first few days of the extended
period. Monday morning, the upper low will be located along the
Colorado/New Mexico border while a shortwave trough rotates north
around the east side of the low through central Kansas. Model
soundings are not overly unstable through this time period. Given
that the upper level cold pool associated with the low will be
moving out over western Kansas, I would expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms develop during the day. Showers
and storms should be more focused over central Kansas with the
shortwave as it moves north during the day.
The upper low moves out through the Panhandle region into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and continues southeast on Wednesday.
As the upper low moves east, there will be some lingering chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and south central
Kansas, closer to the upper low. Far western Kansas should dry out
as upper level ridging builds eastward.
Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge dominates the central
Plains. Chances for thunderstorms will increase toward the weekend
as southwesterly flow aloft increases and shortwave troughs lift out
of the southwestern states through the central and northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Areas of light rain and isolated thunderstorms will impact mainly the
Dodge City and Hays TAF sites through this morning. The precipitation
will move northeast away from the TAF sites by late morning. By late
afternoon, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop
again over far southwest Kansas. For now will carry VCTS for a few
hours late this afternoon and evening at the Garden City and Dodge
City TAF sites for this possibility.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 40 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 30 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 40 40 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 20 30 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
346 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper low that has been sitting over the Desert Southwest over
the past several days will be moving out of the central Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains during the first few days of the extended
period. Monday morning, the upper low will be located along the
Colorado/New Mexico border while a shortwave trough rotates north
around the east side of the low through central Kansas. Model
soundings are not overly unstable through this time period. Given
that the upper level cold pool associated with the low will be
moving out over western Kansas, I would expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms develop during the day. Showers
and storms should be more focused over central Kansas with the
shortwave as it moves north during the day.
The upper low moves out through the Panhandle region into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and continues southeast on Wednesday.
As the upper low moves east, there will be some lingering chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and south central
Kansas, closer to the upper low. Far western Kansas should dry out
as upper level ridging builds eastward.
Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge dominates the central
Plains. Chances for thunderstorms will increase toward the weekend
as southwesterly flow aloft increases and shortwave troughs lift out
of the southwestern states through the central and northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR conditions are expected overnight as the prevailing cloud
cove/ceilings will remain above 3kft. Very isolated small convective
elements will be found primarily west of the Garden City terminal for
a couple of more hours, but the chances of any storms affecting the terminal
is low. Better chances for convection affecting any of the area
terminals will be as the upper low moves closer to the
region...destabilizing the lower troposphere around midday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 30 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 30 40 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 20 30 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...updated short term section...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
This evening`s 00 UTC objective analysis and radar/satellite
observation showed the upper low now over the southern Rockies
region as thunderstorms decayed across the central High Plains of
Colorado and Kansas. The associated upper low showed a relative
cold pool around -17 degrees C at 500 mb. A continuous fetch of
boundary layer moisture advection was present, notably at 850 mb
level from the southern High Plains of Texas through western
Nebraska, aiding layer precipitable water values in excess of an
inch across most of southwest Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A blocky flow regime will continue in the central United States most
of next week as the closed upper level cyclone in Arizona wallows
slowly east into the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and into northern
Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Upper level ridging will build from
Mexico into the Central Plains north of the upper level cyclone, and
the remnants of the cyclone should propagate south to the Texas Gulf
Coast next weekend on the southern periphery of the upper level
ridge extending from Mexico to the Upper Midwest. The net result
will be a return to warm and quiet weather in western Kansas from
Tuesday through Friday.
A weakening Madden Julian Oscillation may propagate across Africa
into the Indian Ocean by the end of May, but any coherent signal
will be weak and will have little influence on the mid latitude flow
regime. Global relative angular momentum has been above climatology
since mid May, but mountain torque has trended toward negative
territory in recent days. The atmosphere appears to be best
represented by Phase 8 of the Weickmann-Berry Phase Space diagram
and may trend toward Phase 1 by the end of next week given the
probable continued negative tendency in global relative angular
momentum. Phase 8 and 1 both favor cyclonic flow in the western
United States, so the concept of maintaining a mean long wave trough
near 120W with a ridge in the eastern Pacific and a trend toward
ridging from Mexico into the Southern Plains seems very reasonable.
If some sort of coherent cluster of enhanced tropical thunderstorms
does move across the Indian Ocean the first part of June, upper
level ridging may be enhanced in the western United States, and
another surge of cool air may spread into the central part of the
country the first week of June.
The extensive rainfall that has occurred in the Texas Panhandle,
eastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma in recent days will favor at
least some greening of vegetation and will have an effect on the
weather in western Kansas in June. Increased evapotranspiration will
support higher dewpoints in western Kansas at least for a while. The
pool of warm ocean temperatures in the mid latitudes in the North
Pacific has continued to shift eastward with time, and ocean
temperatures are above climatology along the west coast of Canada.
This is different from what was observed in 2012 and 2013 and may
favor northwest flow aloft across the Central Plains and increased
incidence of nocturnal thunderstorm clusters propagating from
northeastern Colorado across western Kansas this summer. Guidance
still suggests that rainfall in June will be above climatology,
especially in northern Kansas.
In the more immediate future, the numerical models are in
surprisingly good agreement with propagation of the closed upper
level cyclone as it approaches the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and
moves into northern Oklahoma Tuesday. The 12Z GFS agrees well with
the 00Z ECMWF and largely was used for minor grid adjustments. A
moist and marginally unstable atmosphere will continue in western
Kansas, and minor troughs rotating around the upper level cyclone
will support episodes of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.
The GFS and ECMWF both move a minor upper level trough evident on
satellite imagery in central California around the upper level
cyclone into western Oklahoma Sunday night. This should support
development of a cluster of thunderstorms that will move into south
central Kansas Sunday night and weaken in central Kansas Monday
morning. Scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the upper level
cold pool could occur about any where in Kansas Monday afternoon and
Monday evening, although the cold pool across the southern part of
the state may be the favored area for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Any weak boundary near the upper level cyclone will
have to be watched for the possibility weak nonmesocyclone tornado
formation in the moist environment.
On Tuesday, the upper level cyclone still will be close enough to
south central Kansas to support diurnally modulated thunderstorm
development, but chances will decrease Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level ridging builds in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
The GFS continues to try to bring the remnants of TS Amanda north
into Arizona Friday and into eastern Colorado by Saturday morning,
while the ECMWF carries most of the remnants of Amanda west into the
cooler waters of the Pacific. If the GFS verifies, there will be an
increased chance for thunderstorms in western Kansas Saturday;
however, confidence is far too low to get too carried away with rain
chances. Upper level ridging will build in central Canada around 1
June, and a cold front is likely to move into northern Kansas. A
warm mid level plume should spread into the High Plains next
weekend, and the potential exists for nocturnal thunderstorm
clusters along the edge of the elevated mixed layer the few days of
June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR conditions are expected overnight as the prevailing cloud
cove/ceilings will remain above 3kft. Very isolated small convective
elements will be found primarily west of the Garden City terminal for
a couple of more hours, but the chances of any storms affecting the terminal
is low. Better chances for convection affecting any of the area
terminals will be as the upper low moves closer to the
region...destabilizing the lower troposphere around midday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 20 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 30 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 20 20 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 40 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
INCOMING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL STREAM IN OVER KY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO INSULATE A LOT OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND SO HAVE UPDATED TO
BUMP UP MIN TEMPS. WITH THIS...HAVE UPDATED THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
THIS WILL GO AS MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND A NEW ZFP
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL HAVE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. GIVEN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
KEPT THE AREA DRIER...OPTING TO HOLD OFF TEMPORARILY ON ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF THE NEXT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WE MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...NO REAL
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO FRESHEN UP HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A BIT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA...BUT THESE
CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE WARMING...SO WE MAY SEE A DECLINE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE GOING MORE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR
OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE QUITE
COMFORTABLE RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS TAKES PLACE...AS THE BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES...ANCHORED BY
LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
RIDGE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL THE ENERGY AT BAY FOR
KENTUCKY...THOUGH...SUCH THAT SOME WORKS INTO OUR CWA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE GONE WITH WX DETAILS FROM
THE NAM12 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL FOG FORMATION. A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TIME DIURNAL
CURVES FOR THIS IN THE VALLEYS. THE FRONT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY AND A SMALL INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE THE
COOLING IN THE VALLEYS.
PRIMARILY USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
THEN LOADED TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE
WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGHER VALUES AT SME FROM THE MAV WERE
DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE DRIER MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START OUT JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
RIDGING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS...WITH REINFORCING BOUTS OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS WILL
EVOLVE CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MURKY BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GIVEN POPS SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG
FORCING SIGNALS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...EXPECT INCREASED HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...ADDING A LITTLE BIT MORE FORCING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
SATURDAY DRY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE CUMULUS
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING OVER EAST
KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
BEFORE MVFR AND VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FIRST ACROSS
DEEP E TX AROUND/AFTER 25/09Z AND FOR REMAINING E AND NE TX AND NW
AND N CENTRAL LA TERMINALS BETWEEN 25/10Z-25/13Z. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION AS VCSH WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 30 HAVING
THE HIGHER CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP IN THE MID MORNING TO 5-10 KNOTS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE AR/LA LINE. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY GENERATED ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SCNTRL AR...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RETURNS/SPRINKLES NOTED FARTHER S
INTO NCNTRL LA. STILL SEEING EXTENSIVE AREAS OF AC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS MUCH OF AR TO JUST W OF ELD TO RSN...WITH
THE PROGS SHIFTING THIS DISTURBANCE E OUT OF OUR REGION BY 06Z.
ADDITIONAL AC IS ALSO DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS E TX/NW
LA ALONG AN ATTENDANT W-E WEAK TROUGH AXIS...BUT THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER DRY BELOW 10KFT PER THE 00Z KSHV RAOB...WITH DIRTY
RIDGING ALOFT LINGERING OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED -SHRA LATE MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR DO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/AFTER DAYBREAK N
OF I-30 WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BUT DID
TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT TO INCLUDE JUST THE EXTREME
NW ZONES.
ALSO BEEFED UP SKY COVER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL TX...AS WELL AS AC DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER E TX/N LA. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FG
FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AS THIS COULD AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE...AFFECTING THESE AREAS LATE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE MORNINGS. TEMPS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED 24 HOURS AGO...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER THE
CURRENT TRENDS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 87 69 86 69 / 10 20 30 40 50
MLU 65 88 68 87 68 / 10 10 20 30 50
DEQ 63 85 65 81 65 / 20 30 30 50 60
TXK 65 85 67 84 67 / 10 20 30 40 50
ELD 64 87 66 87 66 / 10 20 30 30 50
TYR 66 82 68 82 68 / 20 20 30 40 50
GGG 66 85 68 83 68 / 10 20 30 40 50
LFK 67 85 69 84 70 / 10 20 20 30 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
710 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS FOR THE
EARLY EVE UPDATE BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MDL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER NE CANADA DROPS SOUTHWARD IN NW FLOW. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COOLING ALOFT...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE VALUES...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND EARLY PRECIP...INSTABILITY MAY BE
TEMPERED A BIT...BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO MET VALUES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SINCE THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING...BUT WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND DO NOT HAVE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE BIAS CORRECTED MOS VALUES FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF A DEPARTING BOUNDARY WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHOSE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MON/TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LIMITED THE VCTS
MENTION IN TAFS TO FKL/DUJ/LBE...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALSO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
929 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING THIS
EVENING TOWARD I-94. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER SETS IN MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO FINE TUNE THE EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE/PCPN TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL
TREND OF FORECAST REMAINS GOOD.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS WI IS TRYING TO MAKE IT
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. IT IS WEAKENING SOME DUE TO IT
BEING SOMEWHAT SFC BASED AND ENCOUNTERING THE COOLER WATERS. THE
CONVECTION IS MAKING A BIT MORE PROGRESS THAN EARLIER...LIKELY DUE
TO IT HAVING SOMEWHAT OF AN ELEVATED COMPONENT TO IT THIS EVENING
AS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME OF IT TO MAKE IT TO
THE LAND AREAS OF THE CWFA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TAKING PLACE. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY...ALBEIT WEAK...OVER THE CWFA WITH SFC BASED LI/S
AROUND -1 TO -2C. THIS COULD HELP IT LIKE WHAT IS HAPPENING NEAR
AND SOUTH OF BERRIEN COUNTY.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INSTABILITY RELATIVELY
WEAK AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN.
WE HAVE TWO SYSTEMS TRYING TO BRING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.... THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
SHEARING OUT AND NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT TIED TO A JET STREAK
TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH.
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MEANWHILE IS UNDER THE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE.
THE RESULT OF ALL THIS IS A NON OPTIMUM SET UP FOR RAINFALL. WHILE
IT IS TRUE PRECIPITATE WATER VALUES ARE MORE THAN DOUBLE NORMAL
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.. WHICH WOULD MEANY LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL... THE LACK OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET OR NEAR BY UPPER
LEVEL JET TO HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT WHAT RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW WILL CONVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF
THE DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TYPICALLY THIS SORT OF
SET UP FAVORS CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN SO I HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS IN TOWARD I-69.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME... SO THE AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTH WITH IT. I KEEP LOW POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERER
THUNDERSTORMS. FINALLY WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THU - FRI ARE CONTINUE TO LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE OUR NORMALS OF 75/50. WET WEATHER
LOOKS MOST LIKELY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
ECMWF/FIM STILL SPLIT ON HANDLING OF UPPER RIDGE RUNNER FRI/SAT WITH
FIM HAVING MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC AND STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH SOUTH OF HUDSON/S BAY. THE STRONGER HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
FROM QUEBEC INTO MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY AND ALSO BLOCKS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM ARRIVING UNTIL LATE MONDAY/ EARLY
TUESDAY VERSUS THE MIDDAY SUNDAY TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF. STILL
THINKING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL WORK OUT WITH A SEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WET MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...FIM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH VARYING DEGREES AND TIMING OF
COOL CONDITIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ECMWF RUNS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WOULD HINT AT FROST UP NORTH...BUT FIM RUNS HAVE
BEEN IN GENERAL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR AVIATORS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOTH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG/HAZE COUPLED WITH LOWER CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. WITH REGARD TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WOULD BE AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE WITH
POTENTIALLY GRR...AZO...AND BTL GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED OFF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. THE
MARINE FOG THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MKG BY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP
CIGS DRAMATICALLY AND POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LOWER THAN
THE 2 MILES INDICATED IN THE TAF. THE REST OF THE SITES COULD SEE
HZ OR BR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS /
LOCALLY ENHANCED MOISTURE. LOCATIONS SUCH AS LAN AND JXN HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT RECEIVING STORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
I ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AS DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 5OS TO NEAR 60 ARE MOVING OVER LAKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE
WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE NEAR SHORE. THE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE CANADIAN
POLAR AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS...THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA...AND THE
LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE ALL REMAIN OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER...RIVER LEVELS AT ALL THREE ARE ON THE DECLINE.
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
812 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN ONTARIO...TOO FAR N TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT
FORCING-WISE ACROSS UPPER MI AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LOCATION OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS
EXPECTED...CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE LAST 12 TO 18HRS. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
0.5 INCHES/72PCT OF NORMAL WHILE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED 1.45
INCHES/208PCT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...MORNING SUNSHINE LED TO QUICK
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND NOW SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W 2/3RDS OF UPPER MI. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYIS SHOWS MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. WEAK SHEAR
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT IS KEEPING STORMS IN CHECK. LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CLOSER TO 30KT HAS LED TO A FEW STRONG STORMS IN NE WI
TO THE W AND NW OF KMNM. STORMS THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF
CIRCULATION AND HAIL SIGNATURES. UPSTREAM...BEHIND COLD FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITH HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE...THE
STRATUS/FOG HAS COMPLETELY MIXED OUT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SHRA
THAT MOVED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HELPED GENERATE FOG
THAT HAS QUICKLY ADVECTED N TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS...FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER W AND CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR...APPARENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOLELY EXISTING BECAUSE OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY END FROM N
TO S THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTING E FROM MN...AND MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING ACROSS NRN WI/ADJACENT UPPER MI. IN
LIGHT OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE WI/MI BORDER INTO
SCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG TODAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR GREATLY INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ONSHORE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...
FCST WILL REFLECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BEST
CHC OF LOWER VIS AND -DZ OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS FLOW BECOME MORE SHARPLY UPSLOPE IN THAT AREA.
ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS/-DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF -SHRA ALONG MI/WI BORDER INTO THE MID
AFTN HRS UNTIL DRIER AIR MAKES A STRONGER PRESENCE AS SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER S. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE COMPARED TO TODAY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET OUT
OF THE 50S AND SOME MAY SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 40S. ACROSS THE
S...MIXING TOWARD 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS...A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S INLAND WED AND THE LOWER 80S THU ...PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN THE FROM NNE WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY WEAK
SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
SAT-MON...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE RESULTING FROM A SHRTWV MOVING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RETAINED THERE SLOWER
SOLUTION AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE FASTER ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
DRY WEATHER BY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHILE THE GFS REMAINED SIGNFICANTLY
SLOWER. UNTIL THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO MON...PER MDLS CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE
WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT TAF SITES AFTER FROPA. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE
SHARPER UPSLOPE N FLOW WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL. IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD S TO THE UPPER
MI SHORE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS S INTO UPPER MI. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING THIS
EVENING TOWARD I-94. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER SETS IN MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN.
WE HAVE TWO SYSTEMS TRYING TO BRING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.... THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
SHEARING OUT AND NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT TIED TO A JET STREAK
TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH.
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MEANWHILE IS UNDER THE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE.
THE RESULT OF ALL THIS IS A NON OPTIMUM SET UP FOR RAINFALL. WHILE
IT IS TRUE PRECIPITATE WATER VALUES ARE MORE THAN DOUBLE NORMAL
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.. WHICH WOULD MEANY LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL... THE LACK OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET OR NEAR BY UPPER
LEVEL JET TO HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT WHAT RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW WILL CONVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF
THE DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TYPICALLY THIS SORT OF
SET UP FAVORS CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN SO I HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS IN TOWARD I-69.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME... SO THE AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTH WITH IT. I KEEP LOW POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERER
THUNDERSTORMS. FINALLY WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THU - FRI ARE CONTINUE TO LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE OUR NORMALS OF 75/50. WET WEATHER
LOOKS MOST LIKELY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.
ECMWF/FIM STILL SPLIT ON HANDLING OF UPPER RIDGE RUNNER FRI/SAT WITH
FIM HAVING MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC AND STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH SOUTH OF HUDSON/S BAY. THE STRONGER HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
FROM QUEBEC INTO MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY AND ALSO BLOCKS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM ARRIVING UNTIL LATE MONDAY/ EARLY
TUESDAY VERSUS THE MIDDAY SUNDAY TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF. STILL
THINKING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL WORK OUT WITH A SEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WET MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...FIM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH VARYING DEGREES AND TIMING OF
COOL CONDITIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ECMWF RUNS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WOULD HINT AT FROST UP NORTH...BUT FIM RUNS HAVE
BEEN IN GENERAL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR AVIATORS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOTH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG/HAZE COUPLED WITH LOWER CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. WITH REGARD TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WOULD BE AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE WITH
POTENTIALLY GRR...AZO...AND BTL GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED OFF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. THE
MARINE FOG THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MKG BY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP
CIGS DRAMATICALLY AND POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LOWER THAN
THE 2 MILES INDICATED IN THE TAF. THE REST OF THE SITES COULD SEE
HZ OR BR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS /
LOCALLY ENHANCED MOISTURE. LOCATIONS SUCH AS LAN AND JXN HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT RECEIVING STORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
I ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AS DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 5OS TO NEAR 60 ARE MOVING OVER LAKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE
WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE NEAR SHORE. THE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE CANADIAN
POLAR AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS...THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA...AND THE
LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE ALL REMAIN OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER...RIVER LEVELS AT ALL THREE ARE ON THE DECLINE.
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS MAKING A DENT IN THE RIDGE OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS
ADVECTED A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI AS NOTED ON RUC
ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EVEN AT MANY LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE LOCAL COOLING OCCURRED. GRADIENT SW FLOW IS
OBVIOUSLY KEEPING AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COOLER. FAIRPORT AND KISQ
HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS GET OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTN. IN FACT...FAIRPORT
HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY AROUND 50F. DEEP MIXING HAS BROUGHT MUCH
DRIER AIR DOWNWARD WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. RESULT HAS BEEN RH AS
LOW AS 15-20PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIEST. OUT TO THE W...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. ADVANCING CLOUD DECK THRU SE
MN/IA INTO FAR WRN WI MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
ADVANCING NE.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING WHEN PCPN
POTENTIAL WILL REACH UPPER MI AND THEN COVERAGE OF PCPN ON MEMORIAL
DAY. AREA OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AT LEAST THRU THE
EVENING HRS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PLAINS NE. BY
12Z MON...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 200PCT OF
NORMAL. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 25KT...SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...AND INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM 850MB) COULD CERTAINLY SPARK SOME CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL
BEGINNING OVER THE FAR W AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THERE`S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA LIFTS ENE INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A ZONE OF VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE EXTENDING S INTO UPPER MI FROM MAIN AREA OF FORCING
FARTHER N IN NRN ONTARIO. SO...AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA OF LOW POPS SPREADING INTO THE W OVERNIGHT (LOW CHC FAR W
LATE). WILL CARRY SCHC POPS AS FAR E AND N AS ROUGHLY A
KCMX/KMQT/KMNM LINE BEFORE 12Z.
ON MEMORIAL DAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT
SHIFTS E...AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
UPPER MI. IF ANYTHING THERE ARE SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL
BE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON MEMORIAL DAY...BUT NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING...BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPES GENERALLY AROUND
500 TO POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000J/KG. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...BUT WILL BE
LARGELY MASKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT TIED TO DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCT/CHC CATEGORY. KEWEENAW MAY END UP DRY AS LAKE MODERATION KEEPS
INSTABILITY IN CHECK THERE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NO GREATER THAN
25KT...AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LARGER SCALE FEATURES BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGE
APPEARS TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THEN
THERE ARE HINTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COOLER EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL KEEP MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
A DRY AIRMASS HOLD STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. AT
THIS POINT...WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG ANY OF THE DAYS
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL OFFSET THE DRY AIRMASS/WARM TEMPS/LOWER RH
VALUES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
INITIAL PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER AREA OF SMALL
CONCERN FOR POPS WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN. LINGERING HIGHER H85-H7 RH ON NORTH EDGE OF STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
COULD POP ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. NIL INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK...IF
ANY ENHANCEMENT FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES VERY LOW THOUGH.
H85-H7 WINDS ARE MORE NORTHERLY SO IF SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP THEY
WOULD QUICKLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AWAY FM UPR MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS
COOLEST IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS SKIES TURN OUT
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS DOWN TO 70 PCT OF
NORMAL AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR COLDEST SPOTS COULD
DIP TO 40 DEGREES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
THETA-E ADVECTION COULD HELP POP UP MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
MINNESTOTA AND NORTHWEST WI ALONG WITH AREAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WNW FLOW AT H85-H7 WOULD STEER ANY
SHOWERS TOWARD FAR WEST CWA...VCTY OF KIWD AND ALSO WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE. ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND CHANCES WILL
BE KEPT VERY LOW. COOLING WILL STILL BE MORE NOTABLE NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS INLAND TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS MORE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS MAY FALL BRIEFLY OVER UPPER
LAKES...ALLOWING THE SFC TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY TO CROSS
CWA ON THURSDAY. IDEA OF A TROUGH PASSAGE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET BUT NOT AS MUCH THE GEM-NH. ANY DYNAMICS TIED TO THE SFC TROUGH
ARE FORECAST WELL TO NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER ONTARIO. INCREASE OF
H85-H7 RH PRECEEDS THE SFC BOUNDARY...PRETTY MUCH EXITING CWA BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ALONG THE TROUGH EITHER. WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST SURE THING FOR A DRY DAY. DIFFERENCES
THEN APPEAR IN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY IN HANDLING OF HOW
QUICK THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP AND THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN A NUTSHELL...ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS DRAWS SOME ATTENTION AS MOST
TIMES THIS IS USUALLY FLIPPED WITH THE GFS TYPICALLY QUICKER. MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR NOW GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLIES NEARBY AND
FCST MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOOSTED
TEMPS UPWARD WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO THE
EVENING HRS...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MON...AND AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF ANY SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...LOWER CIGS WILL
DEVELOP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KIWD MON MORNING...BUT
WITH A DOWNSLOPE SW TO S FLOW AT KIWD...MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
115 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ON MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. WHAT IS MORE
UNRELIABLE FROM THE MODELS IN THIS CASE IS THE SFC DEW PTS...WHICH
FEEDS INTO THE MODELS SHOWING TOO GREAT OF INSTABILITY AND ALSO TOO
MUCH QPF. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DUE TO
SFC DEW POINT PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW PTS WILL
MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. DO THIS THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT OF MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE KEWEENAW DRY
AS LAKE MODERATION WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING THERE.
KEPT BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF BEST
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE FORMATION/PASSAGE COINCIDE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 14C...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT JUST S/SW OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GEM...HOWEVER...ARE SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SFC RIDGING FROM THE N. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS IN BRINGING THE SFC RIDGE IN FASTER...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT S OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS
WILL BE 12-13C WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S INLAND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED AND THU LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS KEEP SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE W OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO FRI AND SAT...BUT THE
GENERAL PATTER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 17C. IF THIS
VERIFIES...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WOULD LIKELY RESULT. AT THIS
TIME WILL RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO THE
EVENING HRS...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MON...AND AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF ANY SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...LOWER CIGS WILL
DEVELOP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KIWD MON MORNING...BUT
WITH A DOWNSLOPE SW TO S FLOW AT KIWD...MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ON MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. WHAT IS MORE
UNRELIABLE FROM THE MODELS IN THIS CASE IS THE SFC DEW PTS...WHICH
FEEDS INTO THE MODELS SHOWING TOO GREAT OF INSTABILITY AND ALSO TOO
MUCH QPF. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DUE TO
SFC DEW POINT PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW PTS WILL
MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. DO THIS THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT OF MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE KEWEENAW DRY
AS LAKE MODERATION WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING THERE.
KEPT BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF BEST
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE FORMATION/PASSAGE COINCIDE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 14C...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT JUST S/SW OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GEM...HOWEVER...ARE SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SFC RIDGING FROM THE N. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS IN BRINGING THE SFC RIDGE IN FASTER...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT S OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS
WILL BE 12-13C WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S INLAND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED AND THU LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS KEEP SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE W OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO FRI AND SAT...BUT THE
GENERAL PATTER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 17C. IF THIS
VERIFIES...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WOULD LIKELY RESULT. AT THIS
TIME WILL RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A DRY SW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY
WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THE
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WL TAP A MOISTER AIRMASS TNGT AND LEAD TO INCRSG
MID CLDS LATE...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO
PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE ON MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ON MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. WHAT IS MORE
UNRELIABLE FROM THE MODELS IN THIS CASE IS THE SFC DEW PTS...WHICH
FEEDS INTO THE MODELS SHOWING TOO GREAT OF INSTABILITY AND ALSO TOO
MUCH QPF. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DUE TO
SFC DEW POINT PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW PTS WILL
MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. DO THIS THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT OF MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE KEWEENAW DRY
AS LAKE MODERATION WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING THERE.
KEPT BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF BEST
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE FORMATION/PASSAGE COINCIDE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 14C...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT JUST S/SW OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GEM...HOWEVER...ARE SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SFC RIDGING FROM THE N. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS IN BRINGING THE SFC RIDGE IN FASTER...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT S OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS
WILL BE 12-13C WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S INLAND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED AND THU LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS KEEP SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE W OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO FRI AND SAT...BUT THE
GENERAL PATTER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 17C. IF THIS
VERIFIES...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WOULD LIKELY RESULT. AT THIS
TIME WILL RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MORE SEASONABLE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET REMAINING ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTRN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO RELATIVELY WEAK AND HARD TO FORECAST DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NRN MN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO EVE. IN GENERAL...THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TOO GREAT
IN MODELS DUE TO OVER FORECAST OF SFC DWPTS IN MID 60S. MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG IN MOST OF THE NWP WHICH IS STILL LIKELY A
LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK - ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZES COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY EXCEPT THOSE AREAS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE LAKE INDUCED STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT THINK MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT
IN ANY WAY...BUT PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DODGE A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +14C. WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME CLOUDS IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY...BUT STILL AN ABOVE AVERAGE DAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
COLD LAKE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM
SUGGESTS. WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE DEVELOPING RELATIVELY STABLE NE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...WITH COOLER
TEMPS.
EXTENDED - SEASONABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S. GFS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES
FOR PCPN EACH DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STABLE SURFACE
FLOW. THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO REALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. WILL END UP INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN...AND AS A RESULT...LAKE BREEZES ARE THE RULE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. PER 12Z KGRB SOUNDING...AIR MASS IS TOO
DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION ALONG AHEAD OF LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. IN FACT...THERE HASN`T BEEN TOO MUCH CU TODAY. WHAT HAS
DEVELOPED IS VERY HIGH BASED DUE TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS. EARLIER
TODAY...THERE WERE A FEW SHRA IN NE MN AND FAR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO IN AREAS OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
THOSE SHRA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTN. TEMPS ACROSS W AND
CNTRL UPPER MI HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND LWR 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MODERATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES POTENTIAL OF ANY
CONVECTION TONIGHT/SUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO
THE W DRIFTS SLIGHTLY E...WITH AXIS STILL JUST W OF UPPER MI BY LATE
SUN AFTN. 500MB HEIGHTS CHANGE LITTLE...AND IF ANYTHING THERE ARE
VERY SLIGHT RISES. OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE.
THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN SRN MANITOBA. QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM INSTABILITY (MLCAPES
ARE AROUND 1500J/KG IN SRN MANITOBA WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING). MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT OVER
UPPER MI...AND POOL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PASSES TO THE N OF UPPER
MI...FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS GFS/NAM/GEM MODEL RUNS SHOWED. HIGH RES
MODELS ALSO KEEP PCPN FARTHER N OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP CHC/SCHC POPS N OF UPPER MI AND OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. STILL...WILL NEED TO
WATCH TRENDS ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS DECAYING REMNANTS MAY SNEAK
INTO PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI SUN MORNING AS THICKNESS FIELDS
INDICATE PCPN WILL TEND TO PEEL SE WITH TIME.
ON SUN...POOL OF LOWER THETA-E/K INDEX ROTATES NE INTO UPPER MI.
THIS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALSO RESULTS IN ALMOST NO MLCAPE PER
NAM/GFS. SO THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. AS FOR TEMPS...DEEP MIXING TOWARD
750MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO
EVEN MID 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION. SW FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER
SUN THAN TODAY...SO THERE WILL ONLY BE LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LAKESIDE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
50S AT BEST. WITH DEEP MIXING...INCORPORATED LOWER DWPTS INTO THE
FCST IN THE AFTN BASED ON SOUNDINGS. DWPTS COULD VERY WELL END UP A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT
OF MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS FALLING TO THE LWR 40S...
MIN RH WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS AROUND 25PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWEST RH WILL
OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MORE SEASONABLE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET REMAINING ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTRN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO RELATIVELY WEAK AND HARD TO FORECAST DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NRN MN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO EVE. IN GENERAL...THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TOO GREAT
IN MODELS DUE TO OVER FORECAST OF SFC DWPTS IN MID 60S. MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG IN MOST OF THE NWP WHICH IS STILL LIKELY A
LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK - ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZES COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY EXCEPT THOSE AREAS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE LAKE INDUCED STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT THINK MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT
IN ANY WAY...BUT PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DODGE A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +14C. WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME CLOUDS IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY...BUT STILL AN ABOVE AVERAGE DAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
COLD LAKE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM
SUGGESTS. WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE DEVELOPING RELATIVELY STABLE NE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...WITH COOLER
TEMPS.
EXTENDED - SEASONABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S. GFS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES
FOR PCPN EACH DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STABLE SURFACE
FLOW. THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO REALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. WILL END UP INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE ARE UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND TRAVERSING THE RIDGE... BUT IS A
BIT TOUGH TO SEE THEM GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF OBSCURING CIRRUS. THE
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE IS NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRUDGINGLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK
TOWARD THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE WHEN
THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT... BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME... WE WILL STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BENEATH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS... LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES BECOMING NEGATIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MINIMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST... SO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... AS WELL AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HOWEVER... THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS VERY WEAK WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION BEING LARGELY
OFFSET BY THE DESCENT OF THE ISENTROPES OVER TIME AS THINGS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA... AND KEEP THINGS DRY FROM A
QG DRIVEN PCPN PERSPECTIVE. BUT... WITH INSTABILITY WORKING BACK
INTO THE AREA... SOME POTENTIAL WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES... IT STILL MAKES SENSE TO
INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD LOOK BETTER BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. WENT REASONABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS... BUT DID KNOCK DOWN NUMBERS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEST FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS TODAY. HOWEVER... WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED ONCE AGAIN... IT IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE READINGS IN
THE WEST COULD OVER-ACHIEVE ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
BY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS DO DROP THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK GOOD WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HINT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DROPS IT SOUTH OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME MID 80S IN THE WEST...IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME ECHO TRAINING NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA THEN. RATHER HIGH CAPE VALUES INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD H5 HEIGHTS OVER 582
DECIMETER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK COOLING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOULD BE A NICE THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RANGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS LOWERING CIGS AND THE
CHC/S OF TSRA/SHRA ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL.
THE ONSET OF MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS AND DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH THE DEW PTS RISING AND
TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTN...LCL/S WILL LIKELY
KEEP CIGS ARND 3 TO 5K...WITH THE BEST CHC OF MVFR CIGS SW OF MPX
CWA THRU EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WHETHER THESE HIGHER DEW
PTS COMBINED WITH WIND SPDS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT TO GENERATE
FOG/BR ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED SO WIDESPREAD FG/BR REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER...EARLIER THIS MORNING THE AIR MASS WHICH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MN TODAY HAD IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS IA/NE. THIS MAY BE THE
SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NW OF
OUR CWA THRU 12Z. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE ONSET OR DEVELOPMENT
OF SHRA/TSRA. BASED ON THE LATEST HOPWRF AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS... SHRA ARE BECOMING LESS LIGHTLY THIS AFTN. ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF MN MAY SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLIER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN IA. THE BEST
SCENARIO IS TO HOLD ONTO VCSH WITH LATER FORECASTERS USING
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS FOR A BETTER TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY/EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND
WEST IN THE NW CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
THE BEST SCENARIO FOR THIS TAF IS TO CONTINUE VCSH AFTER 2Z AS THE
CHC/S OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE FIRST 6 HRS IS ALMOST NIL. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO LOWER END VFR OR ARND 3-5K DURING THE AFTN. BR OR FG IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND SPDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS. WILL HOLD ONTO 6SM AFT
6Z...BUT SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W/WNW BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NGT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. LGT WND.
TUE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NE WND ARND 5 KT.
TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. E WND 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY. SE WND ARND 5 KT.
WED NGT/THU...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE ARE UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND TRAVERSING THE RIDGE... BUT IS A
BIT TOUGH TO SEE THEM GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF OBSCURING CIRRUS. THE
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE IS NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRUDGINGLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK
TOWARD THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE WHEN
THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT... BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME... WE WILL STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BENEATH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS... LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES BECOMING NEGATIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MINIMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST... SO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... AS WELL AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HOWEVER... THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS VERY WEAK WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION BEING LARGELY
OFFSET BY THE DESCENT OF THE ISENTROPES OVER TIME AS THINGS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA... AND KEEP THINGS DRY FROM A
QG DRIVEN PCPN PERSPECTIVE. BUT... WITH INSTABILITY WORKING BACK
INTO THE AREA... SOME POTENTIAL WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES... IT STILL MAKES SENSE TO
INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD LOOK BETTER BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. WENT REASONABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS... BUT DID KNOCK DOWN NUMBERS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEST FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TODAY. HOWEVER... WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED ONCE AGAIN... IT IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE READINGS IN
THE WEST COULD OVER-ACHIEVE ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
BY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS DO DROP THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK GOOD WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HINT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DROPS IT SOUTH OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME MID 80S IN THE WEST...IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME ECHO TRAINING NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA THEN. RATHER HIGH CAPE VALUES INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD H5 HEIGHTS OVER 582
DECAMETER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK COOLING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOULD BE A NICE THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RANGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD... WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE FORCING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE TAIL END...
WITH CHANCES LIKELY INCREASING IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FORECAST PERIODS.
HOWEVER... THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH GOING ON IN TERMS OF
MOISTURE RETURN... INCREASING INSTABILITY... WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET...
AND WEAK LIFT VIA WARM ADVECTION FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN TIME FRAME CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
FROM AROUND 22Z THROUGH 06Z... WITH CHANCES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AND AN EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED COVERAGE...
KEPT THINGS AS VC IN THE FORECASTS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS WHILE WE GET DEEPER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
AND TIMING OF PCPN THIS EVENING IS FAIRLY LOW... AND IF IT OCCURS
THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS. BUT... GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE DECIDED TO JUST INCLUDE VC CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. VARIABLE WIND LESS THEN 5 KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS/FOG. EAST
WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY DUE TO STRATUS/FOG.
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE ARE UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND TRAVERSING THE RIDGE... BUT IS A
BIT TOUGH TO SEE THEM GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF OBSCURING CIRRUS. THE
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE IS NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRUDGINGLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK
TOWARD THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE WHEN
THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT... BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME... WE WILL STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BENEATH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS... LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES BECOMING NEGATIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MINIMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST... SO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... AS WELL AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HOWEVER... THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS VERY WEAK WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION BEING LARGELY
OFFSET BY THE DESCENT OF THE ISENTROPES OVER TIME AS THINGS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA... AND KEEP THINGS DRY FROM A
QG DRIVEN PCPN PERSPECTIVE. BUT... WITH INSTABILITY WORKING BACK
INTO THE AREA... SOME POTENTIAL WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES... IT STILL MAKES SENSE TO
INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD LOOK BETTER BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. WENT REASONABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS... BUT DID KNOCK DOWN NUMBERS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEST FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TODAY. HOWEVER... WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED ONCE AGAIN... IT IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE READINGS IN
THE WEST COULD OVER-ACHIEVE ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
BY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS DO DROP THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK GOOD WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HINT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DROPS IT SOUTH OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME MID 80S IN THE WEST...IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME ECHO TRAINING NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA THEN. RATHER HIGH CAPE VALUES INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD H5 HEIGHTS OVER 582
DECAMETER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK COOLING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOULD BE A NICE THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RANGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SURFACE RIDGING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW CONCERNS DO EXIST HOWEVER. THE
FIRST IS LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF NE/IA.
THEY ARE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
ONLY WANTS TO BRING THEM INTO FAR SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD END UP IMPACTING KRWF WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND ONLY SCT020 INDICATED FOR MVFR CLOUDS
WITH A BKN045 ABOVE. THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS THE THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS FROM KAXN TO KRWF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
THREAT FOR STORMS IS LATER IN THE NIGHT BEYOND THE TAF. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LIGHT
SE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. SPED UP THE ONSET OF BKN045 BY MIDDAY ON
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH CHC SHRA/TS. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SLGT CHC SHRA/TS. WINDS S 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SLGT CHC SHRA/TS. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1133 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FALLEN APART OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY...BUT HAVE
LEFT THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STORMS PERCOLATING N OF THE BORDER.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH STORMS PERCOLATING NEARBY. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE EARLY
TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW AND MID LVL WARMING HAS RESTRICTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU BUILDING OVER ARROWHEAD. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES PER THE
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. WE MAY YET SEE AN ISOLATED RW/TRW DEVELOP.
TEMPS JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY EXCEPT MUCH COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ITS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND WITH THAT COMES THE
USUAL CHALLENGE OF FCSTING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ABSENCE OF WELL
DEFINED BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID LVL WARMING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AMIDST A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED LARGE SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE BASIC
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF MULTI MDL QPF CONCENTRATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS WEST PER
LATEST SREF/GEM/NAM CONSENSUS. EVEN 4KM SPC WRFNMM..WHICH IS A
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL...DOESNT ALLOW CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BASED ON LATEST FCST 925H VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST MN THEN EITHER MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MN. WHERE IT
SLOWS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
POSITION BY TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES. ATMOS DESTABILIZES WITH CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY
ABOUT TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PUTTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN OFF-LAKE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD
REMAIN THERE AND NO MENTION NEEDED FOR INL. GUSTY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z AT INL/HIB/BRD WHICH WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET.
INTRODUCED A VCSH AT BRD BY 03Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 79 60 78 / 0 10 60 20
INL 56 82 57 78 / 60 10 40 10
BRD 55 81 62 80 / 0 20 50 20
HYR 48 81 61 80 / 0 10 60 30
ASX 50 79 59 79 / 0 10 60 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
956 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Quick update to bring likely PoPs late this evening into the metro
area before tapering them off as the forcing weakens overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms have progressed steadily eastward the
past two hours eastward into east central Missouri and will likely
continue to move east and northeast through 05Z per the RAP.
Britt
Issued at 758 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Updated forecast to increase PoPs over central and northeast
Missouri. This is where showers and thunderstorms are being
generated by a pocket of low level moisture convergence ahead of
weak mid level vort max. Latest RAP shows this convergence
weakening over next few hours, though the HRRR reflectivity does
hold on to some scattered thunderstorms through the mid evening
hours across eastern Missouri. Will go will a slow decrease in
areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms the next few hours
based on this guidance. Only minor tweaks needed to going
temperature and wind forecast.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Decent amount of convection developed across most of the FA this
afternoon. Since daytime heating appeared to be the primary
driving force, loss of heating as we head into the evening hours
should lead to a decrease in coverage and intensity. There does
appear to be a bit of shortwave energy brushing northwest areas of
the CWA early tonight, so have held onto the precip the longest in that
area.
Not sure how much activity there will be heading into the predawn
hours, but there does seem to be some consensus that shortwave
sweeping through east side of upper low may approach s MO during
by daybreak. So have reintroduced some low PoPs over southern
sections of the FA for late tonight.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Precip chances will continue to be the primary concern throughout
much of this week due to a combination of features propagating
through the unseasonably strong upper ridge that remains anchored
over the central CONUS. Of course, the main feature is the cutoff
low which is still progged to continue to toss pieces of energy our
way as it gradually heads to the LA coast by Thursday. Meanwhile,
12z model runs are also continuing the idea of weak shortwave
overtopping the ridge at midweek, with this feature trickling down
the east side of the ridge and into the Mississippi Valley on
Thursday.
These features, combined with the weakly unstable and uncapped AMS
that will remain locked over the area, should mean a persistent
threat of showers and thunderstorms. It still appears that PoPs
will continue to exhibit a fairly strong diurnal swing, and have
attempted to place highest PoPs where the combination of instability
and weak dynamics will co-exist during the afternoon hours.
Unfortunately, this pattern does not lend itself to a high level
of precision regarding timing and location, so additional
refinement will be limited to first period/nowcast part of
forecast.
For Friday and Saturday, the latest raw model data and associated
MOS continue to suggest low PoPs across the FA, despite the fact
that by this time the upper low will be over the Gulf and
500mb heights over the mid-Mississippi Valley will be aoa
586dm. There does seem to be some feeble weakness in the UA field
that gets locked beneath the ridge (perhaps a remnant of Thursday
shortwave), and this combined with the fact that this threat has
been a consistent message for several days have continued low
chance PoPs during this time, with Saturday`s PoPs confined to
areas along and west of Mississippi River in most unstable AMS.
Precip chances should increase a bit more heading into next week
as a series of shortwaves begin to flatten the ridge.
With no real change in AMS over the next 7 days temperatures
should follow persistence in most areas, with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A couple of areas of thunderstorms were
approaching KCOU and KUIN at TAF issuance. The overall trend over
the next few hours will be a decrease in convective coverage due
to the loss of daytime heating. Although the prevailing wind
direction will remain southwesterly, outflow boundaries might
cause temporary changes over the next few hours. A similar
situation is expected again tomorrow with scattered thunderstorms
during the heat of the afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL, KCPS, KSUS: Isolated thunderstorms might still
pop up over the next hour or so at St. Louis metro area TAF sites, but
the overall trend will be a decrease in convective coverage early
in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. The wind
direction will probably remain variable over the next few hours
due to outflow boundaries, but the prevailing wind direction will
remain generally southwesterly. A similar situation is expected
tomorrow with scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing during
the heat of the afternoon before dissipating in the early evening.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
758 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 758 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Updated forecast to increase PoPs over central and northeast
Missouri. This is where showers and thunderstorms are being
generated by a pocket of low level moisture convergence ahead of
weak mid level vort max. Latest RAP shows this convergence
weakening over next few hours, though the HRRR reflectivity does
hold on to some scattered thunderstorms through the mid evening
hours across eastern Missouri. Will go will a slow decrease in
areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms the next few hours
based on this guidance. Only minor tweaks needed to going
temperature and wind forecast.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Decent amount of convection developed across most of the FA this
afternoon. Since daytime heating appeared to be the primary
driving force, loss of heating as we head into the evening hours
should lead to a decrease in coverage and intensity. There does
appear to be a bit of shortwave energy brushing northwest areas of
the CWA early tonight, so have held onto the precip the longest in that
area.
Not sure how much activity there will be heading into the predawn
hours, but there does seem to be some consensus that shortwave
sweeping through east side of upper low may approach s MO during
by daybreak. So have reintroduced some low PoPs over southern
sections of the FA for late tonight.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Precip chances will continue to be the primary concern throughout
much of this week due to a combination of features propagating
through the unseasonably strong upper ridge that remains anchored
over the central CONUS. Of course, the main feature is the cutoff
low which is still progged to continue to toss pieces of energy our
way as it gradually heads to the LA coast by Thursday. Meanwhile,
12z model runs are also continuing the idea of weak shortwave
overtopping the ridge at midweek, with this feature trickling down
the east side of the ridge and into the Mississippi Valley on
Thursday.
These features, combined with the weakly unstable and uncapped AMS
that will remain locked over the area, should mean a persistent
threat of showers and thunderstorms. It still appears that PoPs
will continue to exhibit a fairly strong diurnal swing, and have
attempted to place highest PoPs where the combination of instability
and weak dynamics will co-exist during the afternoon hours.
Unfortunately, this pattern does not lend itself to a high level
of precision regarding timing and location, so additional
refinement will be limited to first period/nowcast part of
forecast.
For Friday and Saturday, the latest raw model data and associated
MOS continue to suggest low PoPs across the FA, despite the fact
that by this time the upper low will be over the Gulf and
500mb heights over the mid-Mississippi Valley will be aoa
586dm. There does seem to be some feeble weakness in the UA field
that gets locked beneath the ridge (perhaps a remnant of Thursday
shortwave), and this combined with the fact that this threat has
been a consistent message for several days have continued low
chance PoPs during this time, with Saturday`s PoPs confined to
areas along and west of Mississippi River in most unstable AMS.
Precip chances should increase a bit more heading into next week
as a series of shortwaves begin to flatten the ridge.
With no real change in AMS over the next 7 days temperatures
should follow persistence in most areas, with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A couple of areas of thunderstorms were
approaching KCOU and KUIN at TAF issuance. The overall trend over
the next few hours will be a decrease in convective coverage due
to the loss of daytime heating. Although the prevailing wind
direction will remain southwesterly, outflow boundaries might
cause temporary changes over the next few hours. A similar
situation is expected again tomorrow with scattered thunderstorms
during the heat of the afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL, KCPS, KSUS: Isolated thunderstorms might still
pop up over the next hour or so at St. Louis metro area TAF sites, but
the overall trend will be a decrease in convective coverage early
in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. The wind
direction will probably remain variable over the next few hours
due to outflow boundaries, but the prevailing wind direction will
remain generally southwesterly. A similar situation is expected
tomorrow with scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing during
the heat of the afternoon before dissipating in the early evening.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NEAR TERM WX HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST BUT SHORT-RANGE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG AXIS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTH. THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE EVENING SET UP
THE HRRR AND RAP DEPICT. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EVENING
FORECAST JUST IN CASE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TSTMS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COULD CREATE FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PW`S GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.50" THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH PCPN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK...THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SFC BOUNDARY TO
DROP INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT OR MOVE OUT OF KOFK AND KOMA EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS NEAR FL040 CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP AROUND EASTERN NEBRASKA...BRINGING ASSOCIATED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR THOSE TO ROLL OVER TAF
SITES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MORE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1138 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER THUS FAR THIS YEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES
ACROSS DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. -ASG-
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
231 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
STUBBORN BAND OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL
SECURITY SITE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF CLARK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THERE WERE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OF 35 DBZ.
A 35 DBZ RETURN PRODUCED SPRINKLES OVER THE OFFICE AROUND 130
AM...SO PRESUMABLY THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND.
AMONG THE HIGH RES MODELS...THE HRRR WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE 06Z NAM12 ALSO INITIALIZED THE LIGHT PRECIP
REASONABLY WELL. BOTH MODELS END THE PRECIP BY SUNRISE...SO TRENDED
THE FORECAST THIS WAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW STABLE AIR
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MANY
MODELS ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY AND PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WHOLE THE MODELS SHOW LESS PRECIP
THERE THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY...AND NOTHING HAPPENED THEN...SO
CHANCES TODAY ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES. KLAS SHOULD
REACH 100F ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ACTUALLY TANKED BEYOND THURSDAY ON TONIGHT`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. INITIALLY A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THEN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER AS
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THE FIRST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE
BIG WILD CARD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE AMANDA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOVE THIS MOISTURE TOWARD ARIZONA
STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LIFT IN NORTH ACROSS THAT STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE GRIDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN NEARBY TIME PERIODS AS WELL AS
IN THESE PERIODS. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT UP - IF AT ALL - AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE GETS. TEMPS SHOULD
LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, SPEEDS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AS
THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE DEEPER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MAIN SET-UP. THE
GFS AND DGEX SHOW A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN ON THE GEM AND ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 00Z GEM AND
ECMWF NOW SPLIT ENERGY OFF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TAKE IT OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ALOFT NORTH FROM NW MEXICO. WHILE
THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY EITHER WAY, HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE IS A BIG
QUESTION. FOR NOW, I SHOWED STATUS-QUO WITH TEMPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF PATTERN WOULD
PUT TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO 100 IN VEGAS BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT KLAS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
758 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER THUS FAR THIS YEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONISIBLE FOR ALL THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND HAS
LEFT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA CLOUD FREE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS
TO REMOVE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES OVER MAINLY MOHAVE
COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS UNLIKELY
THEY WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. -ASG-
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
231 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
STUBBORN BAND OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL
SECURITY SITE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF CLARK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THERE WERE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OF 35 DBZ.
A 35 DBZ RETURN PRODUCED SPRINKLES OVER THE OFFICE AROUND 130
AM...SO PRESUMABLY THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND.
AMONG THE HIGH RES MODELS...THE HRRR WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE 06Z NAM12 ALSO INITIALIZED THE LIGHT PRECIP
REASONABLY WELL. BOTH MODELS END THE PRECIP BY SUNRISE...SO TRENDED
THE FORECAST THIS WAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW STABLE AIR
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MANY
MODELS ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY AND PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WHOLE THE MODELS SHOW LESS PRECIP
THERE THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY...AND NOTHING HAPPENED THEN...SO
CHANCES TODAY ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES. KLAS SHOULD
REACH 100F ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ACTUALLY TANKED BEYOND THURSDAY ON TONIGHT`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. INITIALLY A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THEN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER AS
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THE FIRST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE
BIG WILD CARD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE AMANDA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOVE THIS MOISTURE TOWARD ARIZONA
STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LIFT IN NORTH ACROSS THAT STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE GRIDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN NEARBY TIME PERIODS AS WELL AS
IN THESE PERIODS. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT UP - IF AT ALL - AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE GETS. TEMPS SHOULD
LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, SPEEDS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AS
THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE DEEPER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MAIN SET-UP. THE
GFS AND DGEX SHOW A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN ON THE GEM AND ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 00Z GEM AND
ECMWF NOW SPLIT ENERGY OFF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TAKE IT OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ALOFT NORTH FROM NW MEXICO. WHILE
THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY EITHER WAY, HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE IS A BIG
QUESTION. FOR NOW, I SHOWED STATUS-QUO WITH TEMPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF PATTERN WOULD
PUT TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO 100 IN VEGAS BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT KLAS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
231 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER THUS FAR THIS YEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
STUBBORN BAND OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL
SECURITY SITE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF CLARK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THERE WERE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OF 35 DBZ.
A 35 DBZ RETURN PRODUCED SPRINKLES OVER THE OFFICE AROUND 130
AM...SO PRESUMABLY THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND.
AMONG THE HIGH RES MODELS...THE HRRR WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE 06Z NAM12 ALSO INITIALIZED THE LIGHT PRECIP
REASONABLY WELL. BOTH MODELS END THE PRECIP BY SUNRISE...SO TRENDED
THE FORECAST THIS WAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW STABLE AIR
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MANY
MODELS ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY AND PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WHOLE THE MODELS SHOW LESS PRECIP
THERE THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY...AND NOTHING HAPPENED THEN...SO
CHANCES TODAY ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES. KLAS SHOULD
REACH 100F ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ACTUALLY TANKED BEYOND THURSDAY ON TONIGHT`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. INITIALLY A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THEN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER AS
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THE FIRST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE
BIG WILD CARD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE AMANDA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOVE THIS MOISTURE TOWARD ARIZONA
STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LIFT IN NORTH ACROSS THAT STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE GRIDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN NEARBY TIME PERIODS AS WELL AS
IN THESE PERIODS. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT UP - IF AT ALL - AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE GETS. TEMPS SHOULD
LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, SPEEDS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AS
THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE DEEPER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MAIN SET-UP. THE
GFS AND DGEX SHOW A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN ON THE GEM AND ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 00Z GEM AND
ECMWF NOW SPLIT ENERGY OFF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TAKE IT OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ALOFT NORTH FROM NW MEXICO. WHILE
THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY EITHER WAY, HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE IS A BIG
QUESTION. FOR NOW, I SHOWED STATUS-QUO WITH TEMPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF PATTERN WOULD
PUT TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO 100 IN VEGAS BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT KLAS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE 01 UTC HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPERCELL ACROSS DUNN COUNTY AND
MULTI CELL CLUSTERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES AS OF 245 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR HOURS...POTENTIALLY INTO THE BISMARCK/MANDAN
AREA...DICKINSON...MOTT AND GLEN ULLIN. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO HRRR FOR POPS. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. ADDED A SEVERE MENTION FOR ALL POPS THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT
FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THIS UPDATE TO FOCUS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
TRIMMED POPS SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE EVENING AND LOWERED CLOUDS
ALSO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND ADDED LARGE HAIL TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC-BASED CAPE
AROUND 1400 J/KG AND 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT.
ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
BY TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL GENERATE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...REMOVED SEVERE
MENTION FROM TUESDAY`S FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY.
FOR TUESDAY EVENING...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ONGOING OR EXITING OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SHOULD ACT TO STEER ANY OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES NORTHERLY
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...PERHAPS GRAZING WEST OR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AM HOURS. WE ARE THEN VERY MUCH CAPPED DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ACROSS THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST CLOSER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR A SFC TROUGH NEARING THE MT/ND
BORDER.
SFC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED. MID LEVEL SUPPORT UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER MY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.
UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MODELS DISAGREEING ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS EVENTUALLY EJECTED NORTH
AND EAST. WHICHEVER MODEL VERIFIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ALLBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR KDIK AND KBIS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AS
STORMS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN BETWEEN KMOT-KBIS AND EAST AFTER 16Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THAT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM GRAND FORKS TO JAMESTOWN AND INTO SELFRIDGE.
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE WILL SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH SMALL HAIL STILL A POSSIBILITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS
PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PWS ARE A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AFTERNOON TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 00
UTC WRF-NMM. THE RESULT WAS AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
UPON FRONTAL POSITIONING AS REFLECTED BY THE 00 UTC SPC STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY...SSEO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS ARE THE SLOWEST ACROSS THE EST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY AND PARTS OF STARK COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING
THE SATURDAY EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PARTS OF EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND WOULD BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. THE MAIN RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO
MONITOR EARLY THIS WEEK INCLUDE THE HEART AND CANNONBALL
RIVERS...DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING
IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES OF
NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER QUASI
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FAST FLOW ALOFT HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REGARDS TO MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ARCHING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS.
SHEAR IS GREATER ACROSS THE WEST...AROUND 30-35 KTS. HOWEVER...ML
CAPE WILL BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SLOWLY PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE EVENT
THAT SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD KEEP KISN-
KDIK DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KBIS-KMOT-KJMS COULD TEMPORARILY REACH
IFR CATEGORY IN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY KJMS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
*NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. ADDED AMD NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS
PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PWS ARE A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AFTERNOON TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 00
UTC WRF-NMM. THE RESULT WAS AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
UPON FRONTAL POSITIONING AS REFLECTED BY THE 00 UTC SPC STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY...SSEO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS ARE THE SLOWEST ACROSS THE EST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY AND PARTS OF STARK COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING
THE SATURDAY EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PARTS OF EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND WOULD BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. THE MAIN RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO
MONITOR EARLY THIS WEEK INCLUDE THE HEART AND CANNONBALL
RIVERS...DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING
IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES OF
NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER QUASI
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FAST FLOW ALOFT HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REGARDS TO MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ARCHING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS.
SHEAR IS GREATER ACROSS THE WEST...AROUND 30-35 KTS. HOWEVER...ML
CAPE WILL BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SLOWLY PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE EVENT
THAT SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER ARE INCLUDED IN THE KDIK/KBIS/KJMS/KMOT
TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE THUNDER IMPACTS ARE
HIGHEST. IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 00
UTC WRF-NMM. THE RESULT WAS AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
UPON FRONTAL POSITIONING AS REFLECTED BY THE 00 UTC SPC STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY...SSEO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS ARE THE SLOWEST ACROSS THE EST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY AND PARTS OF STARK COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING
THE SATURDAY EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PARTS OF EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND WOULD BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. THE MAIN RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO
MONITOR EARLY THIS WEEK INCLUDE THE HEART AND CANNONBALL
RIVERS...DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING
IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES OF
NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER QUASI
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FAST FLOW ALOFT HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REGARDS TO MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ARCHING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS.
SHEAR IS GREATER ACROSS THE WEST...AROUND 30-35 KTS. HOWEVER...ML
CAPE WILL BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SLOWLY PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE EVENT
THAT SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER ARE INCLUDED IN THE KDIK/KBIS/KJMS/KMOT
TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE THUNDER IMPACTS ARE
HIGHEST. IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERNIGHT UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. STORM MOTIONS ARE THE
SLOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY
EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
QUICK UPDATE AGAIN FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN STARK COUNTY. PROBABLY A FEW MORE TRAINING CELLS
OVER THIS AREA BEFORE THE THETA-E RIDGE STARTS TO GET SHUNTED EAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE EAST. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST FROM WILLISTON
TO EAST OF CROSBY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST
OVERNIGHT. LIMITED POPS EVEN MORE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE
THETA-E RIDGE OVER GRANT COUNTY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER
THE THETA-E RIDGE IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER WEST OVER
STARK COUNTY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH AND LIFTING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE
APPEARS MINIMAL WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WILL
SEE THE LOWEST THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM DO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...THUS
SPREADING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND POPS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY GRANT COUNTY IN A THETA-E
RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE THETA-E RIDGE ADVANCES
SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
DETERMINING IF IT WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FIRST THING`S FIRST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY OVER SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ORGANIZING INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING INTO
ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS
AND ECMWF FORECASTS...A RETURN TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE VERY WET
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND IS ADVERTISED. LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
EXPECT A WARM WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C OR IN THE LOWER 20C
RANGE. SOME SUNSHINE UNDER THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AT
KBIS/KJMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LATER UPDATES PROVIDING THE
TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS. HAVE INCLUDED AN AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUP
AT KJMS...WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STILL
PROVIDING PROTECTION FOR AREA. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT SETTING UP RETURN OF TSRA FOR AREA. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING SE ACROSS INDIANA. IN THE WARM SECTOR CAPES BETWEEN
1550-2500 J/KG BUT LIMITED SHEAR. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND MOVE NE EVENTUALLY REACHING NW
OH TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE TSRA
WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STILL PROVIDING PROTECTION FOR
AREA. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT SETTING UP RETURN
OF TSRA FOR AREA. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING SE ACROSS
INDIANA. IN THE WARM SECTOR CAPES BETWEEN 1550-2500 J/KG BUT
LIMITED SHEAR. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP MISSOURI/ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING AND MOVE NE EVENTUALLY REACHING NW OH TOWARD MIDNIGHT
LOCAL. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE TSRA WILL ACTUALLY MAKE
IT TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. FOR THE FORECAST
WENT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.
MODELS STALL FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE STILL
DOUBTS AS TO PRECISE LOCATION JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH SO HAVE ONLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHOULD
PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH TO OUR WEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING INVOF SRN
LAKE MI...SSW ACROSS ILLINOIS. MODELS BRING THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TUESDAY. HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT
CONVECTION CLOSE TO NWRN OHIO AROUND 6-8Z TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH IT
IS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL ALSO SHOW IT WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KERI AFTER 06Z AS SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH COULD ACTUALLY
MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF MVFR VIS AROUND DAWN ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MORE CONVECTION AROUND WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA. WILL GO WITH VFR BUT WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AFTER 18Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE ON LAKE
ERIE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EARLY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION... THE FIRST IS A
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO... AND THE SECOND IS A
COMPLEX/LINE OF STORMS ACROSS W CENTRAL TX. WV IMAGERY REVEALS THE
WRN LINE IS TIED TO THE CUTOFF H500 TROUGH... WHICH CONTINUES TO
CHURN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SECOND COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE UPPER TROUGH. RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE FAR WRN ACTIVITY IS LIKELY GETTING SOME HELP FROM THE
SHORT WAVE. IN RESPONSE... A WIDE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK. THIS BODES WILL FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS CLOSE... WITH VARIOUS RUNS OF
THE NMM AND ARW ALSO CLOSE. WRT TO THE TRADITIONAL MODELS... THE
00Z NAM BRINGS IN A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT
THE MOMENT GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THROUGH 12Z... WENT WITH
A COMPROMISE OF THE HRRR... NMM AND ARW HIRES RUNS. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO LIFT SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING... WITH THE WRN LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST
AND INTO FAR WRN OK AND WRN N TX SOMEWHERE IN THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.
BESIDES PRECIP/WX GRIDS... ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS A TOUCH THROUGH
SUNRISE TO BRING BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS TREND.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
THINK ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 08-12Z...THEN SHIFT EAST.
THIS BAND WILL END WEST TO EAST 17-22Z. ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z...BUT EXACTLY WHAT LOCATIONS
GET AFFECTED REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT MENTION TS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
WILL GO WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BECOME MVFR BY 14Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 10Z...AND MAY GET AS FAR EAST AS
KSPS-KOKC. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
17-22Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOWERED LIKELY POPS INTO SLIGHT CATEGORY EARLIER FOR MOST AREAS
FOLLOWING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. STRONGEST CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS STATE LINE AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. RECENT RUNS OF HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FA.
BETTER FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. BETTER OPPORTUNITY OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL...AND FROM
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING THE MAIN SAFETY CONCERNS. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION SKIRTING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 HAVE NOT
RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST.
UPPER LOW PROGD TO BE OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER WEAKEN
AND LOITER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN GOING OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY WEEK ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN MODERATE CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AND WITH THIS
BEING ONE OF THE BIGGER OUTDOOR WEEKENDS...FOLKS NEED TO KEEP
THESE HAZARDS IN MIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 66 82 65 / 60 40 60 60
HOBART OK 80 64 81 64 / 60 60 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 65 83 66 / 60 60 60 60
GAGE OK 78 62 82 60 / 50 40 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 82 65 83 63 / 60 40 60 60
DURANT OK 86 67 83 67 / 30 30 40 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1154 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH NEW
YORK STATE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER NW INDIANA/LOWER MICHIGAN IS ON
TRACK TO GET TO THE WRN MTS/LAURELS BY 09Z. THUS...CURR TIMING IS
LOOKING GOOD. TEMPS MILD...EVEN FOR MEMORIAL DAY. NO CHANGES THIS
PKG.
730 PM UPDATE...
WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE. CU GONE AND MORE-
THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS NOT TERRIBLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREAT
MAGNITUDE IN THE SKY GRID. SHOWERS ARE WELL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW SHRA NEAR KDAY AND IN NW INDIANA ARE THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN US AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
DO DEVELOP/MOVE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE LAURELS BEFORE
DAWN...BUT TIMING HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 18Z/21Z RUNS -
EVEN ON THE GFS. WILL PUSH POPS DOWN AND BACK IN TIME FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT LEAVE THEM IN THE NW AS WELL. SKY
SHOULD ALSO STAY MORE-CLEAR FOR THAT TIME AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO THICKEN UP AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOWHERE
TO BE FOUND UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF NOT JUST BEFORE DAWN.
PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS ENHANCING AS THEY TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH HOWEVER AS HOURLIES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE INCREASE OF RELATIVELY BENIGN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
THE FIRST INDICATION THAT YDY`S PRISTINE AIR MASS IS ON THE WAY
OUT...AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 1.1 TO 1.4" PW OVERSPREADING
ALL OF CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS IN THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
TUE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB
IS SOMEWHAT LACKING TO GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE TO AN MCS FORMING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN WITHOUT...SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER PW INCREASES OVER 1.5"
ACROSS ALL OF MY AREA. CURRENT HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY POPS ARE
MAINTAINED ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE RIDGE FLATTENING AND
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN. CAPE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1.5"+ PW.
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT SFC HEATING ON TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY HIGHER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...MID SHIFT ALREADY HAD POPS IN THE HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO WED. THIS BASED ON FRONT
DROPPING SE...AND ALSO PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT MOST OF THU INTO FRIDAY TO BE DRY...BUT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY TRIGGER OFF LOW TOP STORMS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LEFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...EVEN DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE EC MODEL.
HOPE ALL GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR HAS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID
WEST WILL REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. THIS COULD BRING
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER AS IT
IS STILL FAR OFF AND COULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF
THE TAFS. IF IT DOES OCCUR LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING
AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...AND MOVING THROUGH AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z.
A WARM FRONT PUSHES THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT...COUPLED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSRA...WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAFS DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING. AFTER CONVECTION
ENDS TOMORROW EVENING...PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND TSRA.
WED...SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTM NORTH. SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH.
THU...PRIMARILY VFR. ISO TSTM POSS WEST. FRI- SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH NEW
YORK STATE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER NW INDIANA/LOWER MICHIGAN IS ON
TRACK TO GET TO THE WRN MTS/LAURELS BY 09Z. THUS...CURR TIMING IS
LOOKING GOOD. TEMPS MILD...EVEN FOR MEMORIAL DAY. NO CHANGES THIS
PKG.
730 PM UPDATE...
WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE. CU GONE AND MORE-
THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS NOT TERRIBLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREAT
MAGNITUDE IN THE SKY GRID. SHOWERS ARE WELL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW SHRA NEAR KDAY AND IN NW INDIANA ARE THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN US AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
DO DEVELOP/MOVE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE LAURELS BEFORE
DAWN...BUT TIMING HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 18Z/21Z RUNS -
EVEN ON THE GFS. WILL PUSH POPS DOWN AND BACK IN TIME FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT LEAVE THEM IN THE NW AS WELL. SKY
SHOULD ALSO STAY MORE-CLEAR FOR THAT TIME AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO THICKEN UP AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOWHERE
TO BE FOUND UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF NOT JUST BEFORE DAWN.
PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS ENHANCING AS THEY TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH HOWEVER AS HOURLIES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE INCREASE OF RELATIVELY BENIGN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
THE FIRST INDICATION THAT YDY`S PRISTINE AIR MASS IS ON THE WAY
OUT...AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 1.1 TO 1.4" PW OVERSPREADING
ALL OF CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS IN THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
TUE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPEPR RIDGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB
IS SOMEWHAT LACKING TO GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE TO AN MCS FORMING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN WITHOUT...SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER PW INCREASES
OVER 1.5" ACROSS ALL OF MY AREA. CURRENT HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE RIDGE
FLATTENING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN. CAPE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1.5"+ PW.
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT SFC HEATING ON TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY HIGHER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...MID SHIFT ALREADY HAD POPS IN THE HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO WED. THIS BASED ON FRONT
DROPPING SE...AND ALSO PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT MOST OF THU INTO FRIDAY TO BE DRY...BUT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY TRIGGER OFF LOW TOP STORMS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LEFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...EVEN DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE EC MODEL.
HOPE ALL GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. THERE IS STILL A LIGHT CHANCE AN UPPER
MESO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 10Z TO 14Z. THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER AS IT IS STILL FAR OFF AND
COULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
TOMORROW A WARM FRONT PUSHES THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSRA...WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IFR POSSIBLE
IN TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAFS DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND TSRA.
WED...SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTM NORTH. SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH.
THU...PRIMARILY VFR. ISO TSTM POSS WEST.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
947 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH NEW
YORK STATE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE. CU GONE AND MORE-
THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS NOT TERRIBLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREAT
MAGNITUDE IN THE SKY GRID. SHOWERS ARE WELL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW SHRA NEAR KDAY AND IN NW INDIANA ARE THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN US AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
DO DEVELOP/MOVE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE LAURELS BEFORE
DAWN...BUT TIMING HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 18Z/21Z RUNS -
EVEN ON THE GFS. WILL PUSH POPS DOWN AND BACK IN TIME FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT LEAVE THEM IN THE NW AS WELL. SKY
SHOULD ALSO STAY MORE-CLEAR FOR THAT TIME AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO THICKEN UP AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOWHERE
TO BE FOUND UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF NOT JUST BEFORE DAWN.
PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS ENHANCING AS THEY TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH HOWEVER AS HOURLIES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE INCREASE OF RELATIVELY BENIGN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
THE FIRST INDICATION THAT YDY`S PRISTINE AIR MASS IS ON THE WAY
OUT...AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 1.1 TO 1.4" PW OVERSPREADING
ALL OF CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS IN THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
TUE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPEPR RIDGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB
IS SOMEWHAT LACKING TO GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE TO AN MCS FORMING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN WITHOUT...SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER PW INCREASES
OVER 1.5" ACROSS ALL OF MY AREA. CURRENT HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE RIDGE
FLATTENING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN. CAPE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1.5"+ PW.
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT SFC HEATING ON TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY HIGHER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...MID SHIFT ALREADY HAD POPS IN THE HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO WED. THIS BASED ON FRONT
DROPPING SE...AND ALSO PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT MOST OF THU INTO FRIDAY TO BE DRY...BUT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY TRIGGER OFF LOW TOP STORMS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LEFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...EVEN DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE EC MODEL.
HOPE ALL GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. THERE IS STILL A LIGHT CHANCE AN UPPER
MESO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 10Z TO 14Z. THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER AS IT IS STILL FAR OFF AND
COULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
TOMORROW A WARM FRONT PUSHES THRU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSRA...WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IFR POSSIBLE
IN TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAFS DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND TSRA.
WED...SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTM NORTH. SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH.
THU...PRIMARILY VFR. ISO TSTM POSS WEST.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH NEW
YORK STATE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE. CU GONE AND MORE-
THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS NOT TERRIBLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREAT
MAGNITUDE IN THE SKY GRID. SHOWERS ARE WELL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW SHRA NEAR KDAY AND IN NW INDIANA ARE THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN US AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
DO DEVELOP/MOVE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE LAURELS BEFORE
DAWN...BUT TIMING HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 18Z/21Z RUNS -
EVEN ON THE GFS. WILL PUSH POPS DOWN AND BACK IN TIME FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT LEAVE THEM IN THE NW AS WELL. SKY
SHOULD ALSO STAY MORE-CLEAR FOR THAT TIME AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO THICKEN UP AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOWHERE
TO BE FOUND UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF NOT JUST BEFORE DAWN.
PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS ENHANCING AS THEY TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH HOWEVER AS HOURLIES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE INCREASE OF RELATIVELY BENIGN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
THE FIRST INDICATION THAT YDY`S PRISTINE AIR MASS IS ON THE WAY
OUT...AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 1.1 TO 1.4" PW OVERSPREADING
ALL OF CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS IN THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
TUE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPEPR RIDGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB
IS SOMEWHAT LACKING TO GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE TO AN MCS FORMING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN WITHOUT...SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER PW INCREASES
OVER 1.5" ACROSS ALL OF MY AREA. CURRENT HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE RIDGE
FLATTENING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN. CAPE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1.5"+ PW.
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT SFC HEATING ON TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY HIGHER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...MID SHIFT ALREADY HAD POPS IN THE HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO WED. THIS BASED ON FRONT
DROPPING SE...AND ALSO PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT MOST OF THU INTO FRIDAY TO BE DRY...BUT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY TRIGGER OFF LOW TOP STORMS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LEFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...EVEN DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE EC MODEL.
HOPE ALL GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MCS DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE GRT LKS INTO NW PA EARLY TUE AM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND
POSS MVFR CONDITIONS TO KBFD.
ON TUES...WARM FRONT PUSHES THRU LATER IN THE DAY. DIURNAL
HEATING OF THIS HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS PM
SHOWERS AND TSRA...WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND TSRA.
WED...SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTM NORTH. SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH.
THU...PRIMARILY VFR. ISO TSTM POSS WEST.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
933 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...LIFTING SLOWLY EAST. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.
NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM DEPICTED THE MIDSOUTH FREE OF RAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
00Z HRRR SHOWED A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED PREDAWN WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE RIVER.
FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO WITH A SLIGHT NOD GIVEN TO THE
HRRR PREDAWN PRECIP CHANCES. OTHERWISE...FEW OTHER CHANGES.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE PROBABLY STILL ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AWAY
AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED...ENHANCED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM AROUND 500 TO 1500
J/KG WITH LI`S FROM -2 TO -4C. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT SUCH
AS WE SAW YESTERDAY OR SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN A QUIET RADAR.
TONIGHT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
TOMORROW INTO MIDWEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ENHANCING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN RAINFALL CHANCES AND
RESULTING RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. FORECAST
INSTABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND WE STILL WILL NOT HAVE ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURES TO HELP FOCUS LIFT. AS A RESULT...LEANING SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...EXPECTING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR STORMS CAN PULSE SO AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NOT MENTION
EVEN STRONG STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW INTACT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND STALLS IT OVER NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS WEAKENS IT
CONSIDERABLY AND TAKES IT NEAR THE GULF COAST IN SOUTH LOUISIANA.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK. WILL FAVOR THAT SCENARIO...BUT KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW GFS MOS.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN.
EXPECT EARLY SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE
20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE RANGE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 7
TO 10 KTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN
LATE TONIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
27/08Z. COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY SO WENT VCSH. BY 27/15Z SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE
SPARSE WARRANTING JUST A VCTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
815 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER AND ON
THE PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT RAIN-FREE...LATEST HRRR RUNS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED CONVECTION TOWARDS 12Z SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. THUS WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
CONVECTION STAYING EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS UPPER RIDGE AND 500
MBAR THERMAL AXES WOULD PREDICT. SUBSIDENCE WEST OF I65 HAS KEPT
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TRYING TO WORK UP ALONG SOUTH END
OF CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MAY SKIRT CLOSE TO CROSSVILLE TERMINAL
SO KEPT VICINITY TSTORMS GOING THROUGH 02Z...BUT TREND HAS BEEN
FOR THIS CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN. AS FOR FORECAST EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG THAT COULD TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE
MVFR RANGE ALL TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING FOR
VICINITY TSTORMS AFTER 16Z TO DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LATE
NIGHT TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
FROM ABOUT CROSSVILLE NORTHWARD BUT GFS ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL FELL TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH
TOTALS UP TO SEVEN INCHES IN JACKSON COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS WE
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OR RECONFIGURED BASED ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP TOMORROW.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
TOMORROW BUT HAVE FOR THE MOST PART HAD TROUBLE INITIALIZING. HIGH
RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA
HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH RAINFALL
TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN DOES SEEM TO MAKE SENSE THOUGH
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH IS
SCHEDULED TO PUSH TO THE EAST. THE NEW 0Z NAM AGAIN SHOWS ANOTHER
SLUG OF PVA HEADING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW WHICH COULD SET
UP ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO LOOKS TO
TEMPORARILY MOVE US INTO A LFQ IN THE MORNING BUT ONLY TO
TRANSITION INTO CONVERGENT REGIONS (RFQ/ LRQ) OF THE JET BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS DUE SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON RAIN MAKING IT INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND 5 AM (KCLL) AND THEN PUSHING INTO
HOUSTON AROUND 8 AM. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS TIMING AN
EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO GET REFINED. 23
&&
.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY:
2.91" - KIAH (RECORD)
3.22" - KHOU (RECORD)
1.51" - KSGR (RECORD)
23/43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY. SEE 00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN...AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME LARGE
AREAS OF SE TX RECEIVING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH SE TX LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND FEEL THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE HEAVY RAIN. FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. 43/23
AVIATION...
TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OR
CALM. DIRECTIONS VARY AS WELL. FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP EXPECTED.
ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND A SECOND OF ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM THE NW TO
THE SE. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE RAP 13 AND ARW-EAST. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PROPAGATION OF THE OVERNIGHT PCPN THROUGH SE TX THIS AFTN LIKELY
HELPED BY SPLITTING JET ALOFT/INFLUX OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE FROM THE GULF. SAVE FOR THE LEADING TSRA (WHICH PROMPTED THE
WARNINGS) THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERAL-
LY MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING MUCH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXPECT A BREAK
OVERNIGHT. BUT PER WV IMAGERY ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SEEM TO BE
HEADED THIS WAY.
AND SO...THE FCST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ACT-
IVE SIDE WITH THE SLOW APPROACH/POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE MAIN UP-
PER LOW OVER SE TX. MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE 12Z RUNS
SEEM TO BE WITH THE END OF PCPN CHCS...WHICH COULD EXTEND TO SAT.
OTHERWISE NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE GRIDS AS MODELS ARE/HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM RATHER CONSISTENTLY. GIVEN THE PROGGED
DYNAMICS AND ONGOING TRENDS THE FCST OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WX/HEAVY
RAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 82 69 83 70 / 60 70 50 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 82 70 84 71 / 40 70 40 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 82 73 83 74 / 30 60 40 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
CLIMATE...23/43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
744 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY. SEE 00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN...AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME LARGE
AREAS OF SE TX RECEIVING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH SE TX LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND FEEL THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE HEAVY RAIN. FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. 43/23
AVIATION...
TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OR
CALM. DIRECTIONS VARY AS WELL. FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP EXPECTED.
ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND A SECOND OF ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM THE NW TO
THE SE. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE RAP 13 AND ARW-EAST. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PROPAGATION OF THE OVERNIGHT PCPN THROUGH SE TX THIS AFTN LIKELY
HELPED BY SPLITTING JET ALOFT/INFLUX OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE FROM THE GULF. SAVE FOR THE LEADING TSRA (WHICH PROMPTED THE
WARNINGS) THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERAL-
LY MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING MUCH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXPECT A BREAK
OVERNIGHT. BUT PER WV IMAGERY ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SEEM TO BE
HEADED THIS WAY.
AND SO...THE FCST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ACT-
IVE SIDE WITH THE SLOW APPROACH/POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE MAIN UP-
PER LOW OVER SE TX. MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE 12Z RUNS
SEEM TO BE WITH THE END OF PCPN CHCS...WHICH COULD EXTEND TO SAT.
OTHERWISE NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE GRIDS AS MODELS ARE/HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM RATHER CONSISTENTLY. GIVEN THE PROGGED
DYNAMICS AND ONGOING TRENDS THE FCST OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WX/HEAVY
RAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 83 69 83 70 / 60 60 50 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 84 70 84 71 / 70 50 40 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 73 83 74 / 60 30 40 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED EARLY
THIS EVENING AND IS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM LUBBOCK TO JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO.
THOUGH NO MODEL HAS BEEN ACCURATE THIS PAST HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
RAP/HRRR HIGH RES MODEL AND THE TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM12
HAVE BEEN BY FAR THE CLOSEST TO REALITY. WITH EMPHASIS ON THOSE
MODELS TRACKING WEST TEXAS CONVECTION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WE HAVE ADJUSTED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACCORDINGLY AS WELL AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS...WAXAHACHIE...PALESTINE LINE
HAVE RECORD THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD 2-3
INCH AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS 4-5 INCHES THE LAST 3-4 DAYS.
AS SUCH...WE HAVE PUT THESE AREAS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
MIDDAY TUESDAY...AS A LINEAR COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 10 PM...THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST COULD SEE UP BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ABSORBING RAINFALL INITIALLY AS OPPOSED TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL REGARDING THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RESIDENTS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEED TO BE VERY AWARE THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR THE THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENDS.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE ON THE
MOVE TO THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MOST ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN THE LOW CENTER CROSSES INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS...PLACING NORTH TEXAS IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION REGARDING LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM NORTH
TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT EAST AND NORTHEAST GATES OF DFW TRACON FOR A SHORT
WHILE LONGER BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN OK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXTRAPOLATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CELLS ...ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR DATA INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
REACHING WESTERN COUNTIES 02-03Z...THEN THE METROPLEX JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE MAY MOVE UP THE TIMING OF VCTS FROM 10Z TO 07Z OR 08Z
BASED ON THIS DATA. SIMILAR TIMING IS ANTICIPATED FOR WACO AND WE
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS AT KACT AS WELL BEGINNING 07Z OR
08Z.WE MAY HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ADDITION OF A TEMPO
GROUP...OPTING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TRENDS UPSTREAM PLAY OUT.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE ADDITION OF VCTS
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMPLEX SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE LARGELY SHUT OFF FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF A CANTON...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE LINE THROUGH
SUNSET. IT IS BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT IT MAKES SENSE THAT
THE WESTERN ZONES THAT ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME SUN ARE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE TO DESTABILIZE AND SEE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND MOST BASINS
ARE VERY DRY AND CAN TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF WATER. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO CELL TRAINING...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WE STILL EXPECT
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN A WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARM
UP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING SUN AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT SOME 90S TO RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY
THE LAST DAY OF MAY. SINCE THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
79
79
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND MOST BASINS
ARE VERY DRY AND CAN TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF WATER. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO CELL TRAINING...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WE STILL EXPECT
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN A WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARM
UP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING SUN AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT SOME 90S TO RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY
THE LAST DAY OF MAY. SINCE THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
79
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 81 66 88 70 / 70 60 40 20 30
WACO, TX 67 82 67 86 66 / 70 70 40 20 30
PARIS, TX 66 78 64 82 66 / 70 70 60 20 30
DENTON, TX 67 82 64 86 65 / 70 50 40 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 66 79 64 85 65 / 70 60 50 20 30
DALLAS, TX 68 82 68 85 70 / 70 60 40 20 30
TERRELL, TX 66 80 64 85 67 / 70 70 60 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 66 81 67 83 67 / 70 80 60 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 68 84 67 84 65 / 70 80 40 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 66 82 64 83 65 / 70 40 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ115-116-
129>133-141>145-147-148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY. SEE 00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN...AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME LARGE
AREAS OF SE TX RECEIVING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH SE TX LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND FEEL THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE HEAVY RAIN. FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
WARRANTED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. 43/23
&&
.AVIATION...
TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OR
CALM. DIRECTIONS VARY AS WELL. FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP EXPECTED.
ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND A SECOND OF ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM THE NW TO
THE SE. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE RAP 13 AND ARW-EAST. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PROPAGATION OF THE OVERNIGHT PCPN THROUGH SE TX THIS AFTN LIKELY
HELPED BY SPLITTING JET ALOFT/INFLUX OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE FROM THE GULF. SAVE FOR THE LEADING TSRA (WHICH PROMPTED THE
WARNINGS) THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERAL-
LY MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING MUCH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXPECT A BREAK
OVERNIGHT. BUT PER WV IMAGERY ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SEEM TO BE
HEADED THIS WAY.
AND SO...THE FCST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ACT-
IVE SIDE WITH THE SLOW APPROACH/POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE MAIN UP-
PER LOW OVER SE TX. MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE 12Z RUNS
SEEM TO BE WITH THE END OF PCPN CHCS...WHICH COULD EXTEND TO SAT.
OTHERWISE NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE GRIDS AS MODELS ARE/HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM RATHER CONSISTENTLY. GIVEN THE PROGGED
DYNAMICS AND ONGOING TRENDS THE FCST OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WX/HEAVY
RAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 70 83 69 83 / 80 60 60 50 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 71 84 70 84 / 60 70 50 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 83 73 83 / 40 60 30 40 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT ON HAVING UPPER JET IMPACT THE WESTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST (AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/WEAKEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME HINT OF THIS IN
OLD MEXICO NOW...AND CONVECTION SOUTH OF KDRT (AREA IN LFQ OF
JET). TTU 4 KM AND HRRR 4 KM ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER OLD MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARD RIO GRANDE BY
EVENING...LOOKING TO BE NON-SEVERE BUT MAYBE STRONG. SPC MODEL
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION (AND NORMALLY THAT IS THE CASE).
THINK ANY CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE WILL BE IN THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND COULD COME MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST
(MEXICO/EWX CWA) THAN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST (BEST INSTABILITY
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT). SINCE SEVERE CONCERN IS VERY
BORDERLINE...AM NOT GOING TO PUT SEVERE IN THE FORECAST (AS MOST
OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTY WILL NOT BE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
ANYWAY). CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE (AND SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT) STARTS TO CREEP THAT
WAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST...
EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING WITH
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...A BIT COOLER MONDAY
THAN SUNDAY (SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST)...THEN MAYBE A DEGREE
COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GET A TAD WEAKER. STARTING TO LOOK
LIKE SUMMER WITH PERSISTENCE STARTING TO BE THE PREFERRED FORECAST
W.R.T. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SCEC CONDTIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE GRADIENT
WEAKENS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT. DRIEST AIR REMAINS OUT TO THE EAST
NEAR THE WATERS AND THUS AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING RAIN
OVER THE WATERS FOR NOW. MAYBE AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN STORY IN THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
WEAKENING. THE DISSIPATING LOW WILL SAG SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA
MID-WEEK. EURO CONTINUES TO HOLD A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TO THE LOW
THAN THE GFS. CANADIAN HAS NOW PULLED THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WEAKENING. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW FORECAST RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE FORECAST.
A DIURNAL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING...MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
DAILY AND WEAKENING OUT WEST OVERNIGHT. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WHERE BEST
MOISTURE EXISTS. PWAT GETS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES IN VICTORIA
AREA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES
GET MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISAGREE
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...GFS BEING DRIER THAN ECMWF. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WARMEST DAYS LOOK LIKE TUES/WED BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
STEAD IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 86 75 89 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 71 86 71 87 72 / 10 30 20 30 20
LAREDO 76 90 76 98 76 / 30 30 20 10 10
ALICE 74 88 73 91 73 / 10 20 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 76 83 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 88 72 92 71 / 30 40 30 20 20
KINGSVILLE 76 88 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 76 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SE TX. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS
NEAR KLBX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED OUT IN WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS COME TO AN END.
LOWER PWAT AIR WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA. GFS AND NAM
BOTH SHOW PWATS JUST OVER AN 1.00" THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH RES
MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH KEEPING RAIN OUT OF AREA TOMORROW. HAVE
BROUGHT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF THIS.
TOMORROW HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ADDED ON VERY POSSIBLE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM A BIT TOMORROW AND WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE HAVE RAISED MAX T GRIDS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE STREAK OF BELOW 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT
KCLL COULD BE BROKEN TOMORROW. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND (WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL ORG-
ANIZING OFF TO THE WEST)...WE COULD SEE INCREASING ISO POPS OVER
MORE OF SE TX TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE AXIS NUDGES INTO THE CWA.
A DECENT SWATH OF SCT POPS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN UP AHEAD OF THE PROG-
GED STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. ALSO MAKING THEMSELVES KNOWN ARE THE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALOFT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THESE SHORTWAVES CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR STILL
LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MIDDLE/END OF THE FCST AS
SAID STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FCST TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHCS TO
THE AREA NEXT WEEK. (FINGERS CROSSED) 41
MARINE...
OVERALL RATHER SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS
AROUND 3- 4FT OFF THE COAST. DO NOT SEE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MARINE
HAZARDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE GULF BUT MORE SO INLAND.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 89 70 86 71 / 20 10 10 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 89 71 87 72 / 10 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 74 83 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z AND THEN 03Z UPDATE. SMALL CLUSTER OF RAIN
AND THUNDER OVER FAR SW METRO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST AT 20-25 MPH. WILL HOLD ONTO THUNDER AT ARLINGTON/KGKY WITH
JUST VCSH OR -RA AT ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH 07Z/2 AM.
WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS FROM THE PRE DAWN HRS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. SEVERAL SMALLS MCV/S NOTED ON RADAR
IMAGERY WILL THROW EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE MIX WITH A
MOIST-ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. EVEN THE HIGH RES MODELS
LIKE THE TTU WRF...ARW EAST AND HRRR ARE STRUGGLING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...TIMING CONVECTION REMAINS TENABLE AT BEST WITH OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE ON NAILING DOWN TIMES. FEELING IS TO GO WITH BEST
DIURNAL AVERAGES WITH VCSH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
VCTS 21Z-02Z. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SE/S WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 KTS...MORE GUSTY A VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER.
05
&&
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS BEGUN TO LOSE INTENSITY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FWD 00Z RAOB AND FWS VWP DATA SHOW ONLY
LIGHT WINDS (AROUND 15KTS OR LESS) WITHIN 15KFT OF THE SURFACE.
THE MEANDERING CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING IS EVIDENCE OF THE WEAK FLOW. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS 3-MILE LAYER...THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
OUTFLOW DOMINANT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND THE INCIDENCE OF THUNDER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CLUSTER IN
THE VICINITY OF GRANBURY...WHICH IS SLIDING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE BENEFITING FROM THE WEAKNESS IT HAS CREATED IN THE
MID-LEVELS...ITS VORTICITY IS NOTICEABLY LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE
MCV THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO EASTLAND COUNTY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT THIS AREA WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A
DIMINISHING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT)...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION (25-30KTS) WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NEGLIGIBLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING
THUNDER WILL BE WHERE THE EASTWARD MOVING GRANBURY CLUSTER
INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING CONVECTION APPROACHING THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SUNSET WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE
MUCAPE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ONCE SURFACE HEATING IS LOST...WE EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE SINCE MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
(20%-30%) POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY WEATHER WISE TO TODAY SINCE
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE REGION-WIDE.
SINCE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND ALL BRING THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY
12Z TUESDAY. THIS LOCATION SHOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR SOME WIDE SPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND STILL DEPENDS ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. WE ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEE SOME RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW FROM OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IF THIS
VERIFIES IT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LIFT
SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 69 88 68 85 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
WACO, TX 68 86 68 85 70 / 30 20 20 30 40
PARIS, TX 66 84 65 85 67 / 30 20 20 30 30
DENTON, TX 68 86 67 85 68 / 30 20 30 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 68 86 66 83 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
DALLAS, TX 70 86 68 84 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
TERRELL, TX 68 85 66 84 68 / 30 20 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 67 85 67 83 69 / 20 20 20 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 67 84 67 83 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 86 63 82 66 / 40 30 40 40 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
748 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED TAME EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE BASED CAPE MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1500 J/KG...
AND LACK OF A STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM. IN FACT...
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
VERTICALLY IN THE ZONE WARMER THAN -4C. THE ONLY REAL NOTICEABLE
MID-LEVEL DYNAMIC FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST
MN...SEEN BOTH IN WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS STRONGLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY PRODUCED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...AS RAIN AND OUTFLOW OCCUR...THE STORMS
DISSIPATE. NOW THAT WE ARE HEADING INTO THE NOCTURNAL COOLING
PERIOD AND NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP
KEEP CONVECTION GOING...ANTICIPATING THE COOLING TEMPERATURES TO
CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HRRR AS WELL AS THE
26.12Z PARALLEL RUNS OF THE HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TO JUST 20. ITS POSSIBLE A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY BUT HARD TO TELL
WHERE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIGHTNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING...HAVE ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID TUESDAY MORNING.
RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL A COUPLE DEGREES AS MOIST AIRMASS
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALOFT HELP TO LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
AFTER A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...AIRMASS-LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN FORMING AROUND THE REGION NOW THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SUBTLE LIFT IS IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GENERATING BULK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS OF 19Z BUT STILL EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO
THE EVENING. EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY OUT THERE...WIND SHEAR
NEXT TO NOTHING SO OUTSIDE OF SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
WITH UPPER LOW STILL PART OF BLOCKED FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONGER NORTHERN FLOW OVER RIDGE IS PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
CLOSER TO AREA...STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.
CONTINUE TO TRY AND EMPHASIZE HIGHER RAIN THREATS DURING HEATING
PERIODS AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE
AREA AND TIMING A BIT DIFFICULT WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURES TO FOCUS
ON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY GIVEN FRONT PLACEMENT SO
KEPT LIKELY CHANCES GOING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THERE HAS BEEN QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW FAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK FOR DAYS NOW. SIGNAL FOR A DRYING TREND
IS A BIT STRONGER AND FASTER VIA 26.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH REMNANTS OF FRONT SOUTH SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO BE LOWERED AND SHIFTED THAT DIRECTION BEFORE GOING ALL DRY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN THIS FLOW WITH MAINLY 80S FOR HIGHS.
NEXT WEEK FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. DRIVING A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PROCESS FOR TIMING DETAILS BUT BULK OF
RAIN COULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
FRONT CRASHES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER STORM THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THIS EVENINGS AIRMASS AND WEATHER PATTERN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS PULSE TYPE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THESE ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN / NORTHEAST IA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z...OR LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM...MOIST
AIRMASS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOWER THAN 4 TO 6SM. FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT NEARING CLOSER TO KRST/KLSE THERE
SHOULD BE BETTER FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z. COMPARED TO TODAY...THE
SETUP LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
615 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT POSITIONED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
75+ KT JET STREAK AND BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THOUGH...DESPITE ML CAPES INCREASING
TO GREATER THAN 800 J/KG...COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE...THUS HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP DOWN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE SO ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY LOW. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
LITTLE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE COOL FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BECOME HARD TO DISCERN BY THE TIME IT POSSIBLY
REACHES CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUE. SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT UNTIL DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. WITH SUCH LIGHT WIND FIELDS
ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING CONVERGENCE PRODUCING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS THAT
MOVES EAST INTO THE STATE AND HELPS PRODUCE AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELEVATED
CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
PLACE THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS REMAIN
UNDER 20 KTS ALOFT...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FURTHER NORTH. WITH SUCH
A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD HAVE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL NOT RESIDE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SO PWATS WILL REMAIN
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL DROP
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH SHOULD BE BREACHED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
(STILL RATHER WEAK) DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA...AM THINKING
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY SO DROPPED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE DRIER AIR DOES START TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL END PRECIP
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIKE TODAY...WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL. BUT ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PROGS DIMINISH THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR A DRY PERIOD. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
PIECES OF ENERGY CAN WORK OVER THE RIDGE AND THEN SLIP INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW MODELS HINT OF A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVER THE FAR NROTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MILD DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK BUT WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW...COOLER READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE BAY
AND LAKESHORE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA CONT ACRS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A DOWNTURN IN
THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH IT MAY NOT GO AWAY
COMPLETELY. AT LEAST MVFR FG IS A GOOD BET TNGT WITH HUMID AIR NOW
ACRS THE AREA AND TDA/S RAINS. LOCALIZED CONDITONS DOWN TO VLIFR
POSSIBLE...BUT WON/T TAKE ANY OF THE TAFS THAT LOW YET. SHRA/TSRA
WL INCR AGAIN TOMORROW AS BOUNDARY SAGS SWD ACRS THE AREA AND MID-
LVL MOISTURE/CIRCULATION LINGER.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
453 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AS WELL...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG A COOL FRONT. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER TOP THE RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL VEER AND ALLOW DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT. BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE NIGHT WARMER AND MORE MUGGY THAN
THE PAST FEW.
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OVER NE
MINNESOTA...A MOISTURE-LADEN AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES. UPPER FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 65KT JET STREAK AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN 80/65 PARCEL WILL GENERATE 1300
J/KG OF ML CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE FALLS TO ABOUT 900 J/KG USING A
77/62 PARCEL. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY SKINNY...THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO THE HIGH PWATS AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION. SO ANTICIPATE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A PERSISENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUCKLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS UPPER RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTAINING HIGHER PWATS
WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PROGGED TO STRUGGLE TO WORK OVER
THE REBUILDING RIDGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM OR
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN...SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SINCE IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD AGAIN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER MORE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A DRIER FORECAST
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY WORK OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALTER THIS WEEK BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. AS MENTIONED THESE TRENDS
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD WILL
ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL TIME THE
FRONT WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
DRY STABLE AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE STILL ENTRENCHED ACRS THE
AREA. BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD...MOISTURE AXIS TO THE W WL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD. COULD SEE SOME SHRA LATE TNGT AS THE MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCR IN SHRA AND SOME TSRA
TOMORROW AS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
WL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD LATE TOMORROW AFTN...AND WL REFLECT
THAT IN THE RHI TAF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AS WELL...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG A COOL FRONT. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER TOP THE RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL VEER AND ALLOW DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT. BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE NIGHT WARMER AND MORE MUGGY THAN
THE PAST FEW.
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OVER NE
MINNESOTA...A MOISTURE-LADEN AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES. UPPER FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 65KT JET STREAK AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN 80/65 PARCEL WILL GENERATE 1300
J/KG OF ML CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE FALLS TO ABOUT 900 J/KG USING A
77/62 PARCEL. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY SKINNY...THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO THE HIGH PWATS AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION. SO ANTICIPATE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A PERSISENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUCKLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS UPPER RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTAINING HIGHER PWATS
WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PROGGED TO STRUGGLE TO WORK OVER
THE REBUILDING RIDGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM OR
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN...SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SINCE IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD AGAIN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER MORE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A DRIER FORECAST
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY WORK OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALTER THIS WEEK BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. AS MENTIONED THESE TRENDS
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD WILL
ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL TIME THE
FRONT WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL LOWER RATHER QUICKLY IN THIS MID-SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS TO MVFR
LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AS WELL IN MIST OR
HAZE. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS
AIRMASS TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
THE HEAT OF THE DAY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
615 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER 2 INCHES FROM CHEYENNE
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO
REGENERATE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE (MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG)
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE REGION OF BEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1200-1500
J/KG) SOUTHEAST OF A LARAMIE...TO SCOTTSBLUFF TO CHADRON LINE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF KIMBALL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO
BACK BUILD AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO TO START DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASED
INSTABILITY. 18Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z...BUT HANGS ON TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST COMING OUT OF THE CASPER AREA. PROBLEM
IS...HRRR HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH MID EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW...DEEP LAYERED DRYSLOT (AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO UTAH)
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WITH LOWER TO MAYBE
EVEN A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT PROCESS
ABOVE 9000 FT...AND WILL CAUSE RISES AND AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT
ON SOME RIVERS IN THE WEST (PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC
DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH PRECIP COVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PULL UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE THE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT WEST. ECMWF MOST BULLISH ON
QPF WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS RAINFALL MAINLY OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP GETS GOING. ECMWF HAS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA ALL THE
WAY UP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. GFS PWATS OVER RAWLINS
INCREASES FROM ROUGHLY .45 INCHES TO OVER .60 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NEAR KDGW AND
KCYS IN WYOMING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT KRWL AFTER 17Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. FUELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GREEN UP AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOW PACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE RIVER
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE MOST
GAUGE SITES ARE NOW IN FLOOD WARNINGS. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER RAIN ON SNOW EVENT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARMON
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLOW
NORTHEAST DRIFT...BUT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO LARAMIE AND KIMBALL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS DRY AIR...LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS
ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SOME MODERATE SIZED HAIL.
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE ALBANY EMERGENCY MANAGER THIS MORNING...SOILS
OUT IN ALBANY COUNTIES ARE VERY SATURATED FROM COMBINATION OF
HEAVY SNOW A COUPLE WEEKS AGO...RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND WATER RELEASES
FROM THE LARAMIE RIVER ARE AGGRAVATING FLOOD CONCERNS. WE ARE
GETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY...SO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIP LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING. FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
LATER THIS EVENING TEMPORARILY...BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO INCREASE SNOW MELT FROM MONDAY ON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO BIG CHANGES IN THIS RELEASE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO WHERE WE MAY GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MAIN STORY MIDWEEK WILL BE THE
WARM TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT ABOVE
9000 FT AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS STILL ADVERTISES 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR +16C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CARBON...ALBANY
AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY
QUICKLY LIFTS OUT INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY LEAVING AN ELONGATED
MIDLEVEL TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVER
OUR REGION WE NOTE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SETTING UP INTO WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE AMANDA
COULD GET DRAWN NORTH INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOR
NOW WE CANT SAY WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE
WEEKEND PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SNOW MELT...BUT WE HAVE INCREASED POPS GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES)...SO STAY TUNED
FOR REFINED INFORMATION AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 LATE THIS MORNING AND SO FAR HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND ADVERTISES THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AFFECTING THE CHEYENNE...LARAMIE...AND
RAWLINS AVIATION AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES FOR THE WESTERN
AVIATION FORECAST SITES WITH VCNTY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
AREA (NO TEMPO OR PREVAILING PERIOD OF STORMS) OVER THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA AVIATION SITES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN
LARAMIE...WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AFTER THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DIMINISHES WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME FOG
TO FORM...SO WE WENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN
TO ONE HALF MILE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LARAMIE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE ON SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING BY
LATE THIS WEEK. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALSO
LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED SNOW MELT FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SNOW MELT AND CAUSE RIVERS
TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. REFER TO FFACYS FOR
THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WARNING
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. SHOULD SEE THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN NPAC. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN STILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG AND OTHERWISE LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. KIMBALL WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT 230 AM MDT AND AM SEEING SOME HINTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY ELSEWHERE ON AREA WEBCAMS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LLVLS WILL KEEP T-TD SPREADS LESS THAN 3 DEG F...SO CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST. EXPANDED THAT AREA INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS WOULD EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO FUNNEL UP
THE VALLEY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLUMN
DRIES QUITE A BIT AFTER 15Z...SO DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO LAST VERY
LONG MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS.
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL IMPROVE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. 700-500 MILLIBAR
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE IS EVIDENT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH PRECIP SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CO. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BY AFTN. STILL HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE MIDLVL DRY SLOT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. COULD HAVE SOME MORE CIRRUS BLOW
OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT IF NOT...THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND PTNL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN CONVECTION AS THE HRRR MIGHT SUGGEST. HOWEVER THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE TO THE WEST IN THE MORE PRONOUNCED 700
TO 300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE. THE WESTERN FOCUS OF THIS EVENT SUPPORTS
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS
EJECTING OUT SO EARLY...THE GFS SUGGESTS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE A
FEW KTS STRONGER AND STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE STATIONARY...BUT
STILL NOT MOVING ALL THAT QUICKLY. STRONGER FLOW COULD ALSO MEAN
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION AND MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FCST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PW VALUES ARE
WELL OVER A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF OVER A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA...SUSPECT SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION WILL ROB A
BIT OF THE MOISTURE AND KEEP COVERAGE FROM BECOMING ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. STILL...COULD BE QUITE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION OF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON EXISTING SNOWPACK.
WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED. MODELED CAPE VALUES ARE
LESS THAN 200 J/KG DURING THIS TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NIL. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CWA ON MON...BECOMING MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED BY TUE AFTN WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 14 C
ABOVE RWL TO 10 C OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 IN THE VALLEYS...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT WARM GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND 700 MB
TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14C ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THIS
WAA PATTERN. RESULTING MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITHIN THE 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST. EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000
FT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY
THE 70S. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SNOWMELT IN
THE HIGH PEAKS...AND THUS EXPECT RAPID RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS AN INCREASING
CONCERN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO
MARGINAL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SW
WINDS ALOFT INCREASING A BIT AND ADVECTING IN MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD 70S
AND 80S WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BATCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC STREAM UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHES
ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ENERGETIC AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE JET APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...SO COULD
SEE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
SO...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY MIDWEEK...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREAS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST
SFC FLOW. WILL SEE CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH 14-16Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY
TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KLAR AND KCYS
WHERE WEAK NNE UPSLOPE WINDS MAY PRODUCE LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE ON SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING BY
LATE THIS WEEK. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALSO
LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS PUSHED WATER LEVELS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AT THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE AND THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER AT SARATOGA. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COMBINE
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED RIVER RISES ALONG MAJOR MAIN STEM RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ADJACENT TO THE SOURCE
OF THE SNOWMELT. DEEP SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HEAVY RAIN ON THIS SNOW WILL CREATE
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS AS SNOW COULD MELT RAPIDLY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS ON SUN FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED TO JUSTIFY THE EXPANSION
OF THE WATCH. REFER TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
FLWCYS AND FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. SHOULD SEE THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN NPAC. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN STILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG AND OTHERWISE LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. KIMBALL WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT 230 AM MDT AND AM SEEING SOME HINTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY ELSEWHERE ON AREA WEBCAMS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LLVLS WILL KEEP T-TD SPREADS LESS THAN 3 DEG F...SO CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST. EXPANDED THAT AREA INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS WOULD EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO FUNNEL UP
THE VALLEY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLUMN
DRIES QUITE A BIT AFTER 15Z...SO DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO LAST VERY
LONG MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS.
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL IMPROVE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. 700-500 MILLIBAR
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE IS EVIDENT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH PRECIP SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CO. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BY AFTN. STILL HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE MIDLVL DRY SLOT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. COULD HAVE SOME MORE CIRRUS BLOW
OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT IF NOT...THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND PTNL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN CONVECTION AS THE HRRR MIGHT SUGGEST. HOWEVER THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE TO THE WEST IN THE MORE PRONOUNCED 700
TO 300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE. THE WESTERN FOCUS OF THIS EVENT SUPPORTS
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS
EJECTING OUT SO EARLY...THE GFS SUGGESTS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE A
FEW KTS STRONGER AND STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE STATIONARY...BUT
STILL NOT MOVING ALL THAT QUICKLY. STRONGER FLOW COULD ALSO MEAN
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION AND MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FCST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PW VALUES ARE
WELL OVER A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF OVER A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA...SUSPECT SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION WILL ROB A
BIT OF THE MOISTURE AND KEEP COVERAGE FROM BECOMING ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. STILL...COULD BE QUITE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION OF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON EXISTING SNOWPACK.
WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED. MODELED CAPE VALUES ARE
LESS THAN 200 J/KG DURING THIS TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NIL. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CWA ON MON...BECOMING MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED BY TUE AFTN WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 14 C
ABOVE RWL TO 10 C OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 IN THE VALLEYS...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT WARM GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND 700 MB
TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14C ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THIS
WAA PATTERN. RESULTING MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITHIN THE 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST. EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000
FT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY
THE 70S. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SNOWMELT IN
THE HIGH PEAKS...AND THUS EXPECT RAPID RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS AN INCREASING
CONCERN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO
MARGINAL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SW
WINDS ALOFT INCREASING A BIT AND ADVECTING IN MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD 70S
AND 80S WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BATCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC STREAM UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHES
ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ENERGETIC AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE JET APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...SO COULD
SEE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
SO...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY MIDWEEK...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AL THO
IMPACTS AT THE AREA TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. LOOKING AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE POTENTIALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE ON SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING BY
LATE THIS WEEK. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALSO
LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS PUSHED WATER LEVELS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AT THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE AND THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER AT SARATOGA. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COMBINE
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED RIVER RISES ALONG MAJOR MAIN STEM RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ADJACENT TO THE SOURCE
OF THE SNOWMELT. DEEP SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HEAVY RAIN ON THIS SNOW WILL CREATE
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS AS SNOW COULD MELT RAPIDLY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS ON SUN FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED TO JUSTIFY THE EXPANSION
OF THE WATCH. REFER TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
FLWCYS AND FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1245 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY REALLY LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIGHTER SHOWERS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THE
REST OF TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOWY RANGE WHERE LIGHT
RAIN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THAT LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH CIRRUS IS IN THE AREA TOMORROW. LACK OF
CIRRUS WOULD MEAN A HIGHER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WHILE A LOT
OF CIRRUS WOULD CERTAINLY SHUT OFF FLASH FLOOD CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP LOCATIONS AND TIMING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS A BIT CONCERNING AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF IS
MAKING ITS WAY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM OVER CONVERSE COUNTY AND OVER THE SNOWY RANGE. EVEN
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION UNDER THE
CIRRUS BLOWOFF EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE
SLOW...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT.
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OUT OF COLORADO. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON QPF
PLACEMENT. GFS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. ECMWF HITTING THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
OVER TO THE SNOWY RANGE...WHILE THE NAM IS HITTING THE SNOWY RANGE
PRETTY GOOD. DID A BLEND OF THE MODELS ON QPF HITTING THE
MOUNTAINS PRETTY HARD WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TONIGHT. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
STALLED OUT THUNDERSTORMS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...PWATS OUT BY RAWLINS
ARE UP TO 3/4THS OF AN INCH. WHERE EVER THESE STORMS
DEVELOP...FOLKS UNDERNEATH THEM ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF RAIN.
ONE LAST ITEM OF CONCERN...LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS CONVECTION
FURTHER EAST...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOST OF
LARAMIE COUNTY. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THE EVENING SHIFT
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCHES AS THEY ARE THOUGH...GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS.
PRECIP WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL COLORADO. VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL WYOMING. ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST
BULLISH ON QPF...WITH WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWFA. ALL THREE MODELS ARE HITTING THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BASED
ON THIS TREND FOR A MAJOR RAIN ON SNOW EVENT OUT THERE. WILL
UPDATE THE HWO TO HIT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SUNDAY. LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FOR CARBON COUNTY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500J/KG. WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OUT THERE TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN SOME AREAS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE WITH
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW TO MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT
WORKS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS AND THE NEXT LOW SWINGING DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND FAIRLY WARM IN THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME. SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB
TEMPS AT +14C OVER THE WESTERN ZONES COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
SNOWMELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIDWEEK AS WELL (SOMETHING THAT
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH). BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
INTEREST WE NOW NOTE HOW THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DRAW
PACIFIC MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FROM WHAT WOULD
POSSIBLY BE LEFTOVER OF A SHEARED-OUT TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA. IT
IS WAY TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS NOW TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHO
IMPACTS AT THE AREA TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. LOOKING AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE POTENTIALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MOIST
AIR MASS COMBINES WITH FUELS THAT ARE IN GREEN-UP. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MOST DAYS...WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DISTRICT. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MON-WED. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVE LIGHT THRU THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN
EARNEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CONTINUING SNOWMELT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREATE CONTINUED RIVER RISES ON THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE RIVER TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHICH COULD ADD TO FURTHER RAPID RISES.
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY FOR
SUNDAY AS A RESULT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE SNOWMELT EVEN MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE...AND NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
PLEASE SEE FFACYS FOR PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING CURRENT
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
854 PM CDT
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT
FORECAST...BUT MAINLY TO HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPERATURES. DID
BUMP DOWN POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN DIURNAL TREND SEEN AND
EXPECTED IN CONVECTION. ALSO HAVE ENDED UP ADDING AREAS OF FOG
MENTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...BASED ON UPSTREAM LAKE
MICHIGAN TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG ALREADY SEEN.
AN AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...NOW BEING
MAINLY DRIVEN BY A COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS...THE AIR
IS PRETTY WORKED OVER. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER...INTO NORTHWEST
IL...PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR /1.68 INCHES AT DVN AT
00Z/ AND A SHORT WAVE NEAR THE MO/IA/IL INTERSECTION IS HELPING TO
SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BELIEVE THAT BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THEN
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL. A NOW
INVERSION IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT THE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS SUCH AS THOSE SEEN EARLIER.
COLD POOLS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS UP EARLIER.
WITH THE CALM WINDS AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR FOG...HOWEVER
HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING VERY MUCH MORE. SO DO NOT EXPECT MANY HOURS OF SATURATION
THAT WOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
SPEAKING OF FOG...LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
LIKELY FOG OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION INDICATING DENSE FOG. THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR OVER THE
COLD LAKE WATERS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME OF THIS
FOG WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE SHORE AND COULD MOVE IN. THIS IS MOST
FAVORED AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY...AS ANY CONVECTION/COLD POOLS
DISSIPATE AND THE LAKE-ENHANCED FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM CDT
A TRANSITION TO LESS SETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POISED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RECENTLY BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOVELY WEATHER IS NOW POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ROUGHLY
FOUR...RIDING OVER THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CHANNEL...WITH THE FIRST ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS MATCH SATELLITE DATA IN SHOWING THE FOURTH IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THIS WOULD REACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN BETWEEN...WILL
PLAN TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TWO INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNFOCUSED WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRAP THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT POOLS ALONG A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE LAKE AND TOWARD THE WI LINE...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OTHER
EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY FRIDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
FURTHER BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT.
* SW TO W WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHEAST
TUESDAY EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR FOG/IFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT IS LAID OUT EAST TO WEST BISECTING WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY
MORNING...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HUMID CONDITIONS MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR NOW WILL ADD MVFR CONDITIONS TO RFD/DPA BUT
KEEP IT OUT OF THE LESS FOG PRONE CHICAGO TERMINALS AND MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY BUILD AS THE SURFACE
HEATS UP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE SOME FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT UNCAPPED
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING IN
THE TAF ON THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR FROPA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SURGE DOWN THE LAKE WITH THE HELP OF THE COOLER LAKE WATERS...WITH
AN ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING AND TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY. FOG OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY SPILL INLAND BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR...AND
MAY LIFT TO AN IFR OR LOWER MVFR CIG BY THE TIME IT REACHES ORD/MDW.
WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW PER MET/MAV GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY FADE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG TONIGHT....AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GENERALLY EAST OR
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING THE SOUTH END
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL STABLE WATERS OF THE
LAKE RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ONCE
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE FOG AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE SHUNTED BACK INTO THE
IL/IN NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK AND REMAINS SITUATED
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO TURN A
LAKE BREEZE RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
217 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Weak surface low centered just east of Minneapolis early this
morning, with a boundary extending southwest into north central
Iowa. Earlier showers/storms in southwest Illinois, associated
with a weak trough around 925 mb, have largely faded with just
some sprinkles perhaps in the far southwest CWA west of
Jacksonville. Persistent large upper low evident on water vapor
imagery continues to make slow progress east-southeast, and was
centered over the Texas panhandle, with a broad trough extending
northward through the Plains.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:
Still not much change in the weather pattern during this part of
the forecast. Main concern will be with diurnal showers and
storms. While the upper low will not directly impact us, it still
will have a bit of influence with a shortwave in the northern
stream, which will slip a backdoor cold front through the forecast
area on Wednesday. This front will bring slightly cooler
temperatures by mid week, namely lower 80s vs mid/upper 80s.
Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late morning, becoming more numerous in the
afternoon before dying off in the evening. Instability expected to
be rather modest, with the NAM and RAP keeping CAPE`s over most of
the forecast area below 1000 J/kg, so severe weather is of little
concern. However, precipitable water values around 1.6 inches
would favor some heavier downpours, but the scattered nature of
the storms will result in widely varying precipitation amounts.
Somewhat better rain chances expected on Wednesday as the front
arrives and provides some better forcing, and have increased
PoP`s to around 60% across the central third of the CWA. For
Thursday, the evening model runs have started a trend of shifting
the rain chances a bit further south due to the movement of the
front. Have reduced rain chances to around 20% northwest of the
Illinois River as a result, but continued the mention of scattered
storms elsewhere.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:
Upper ridge will be drifting through the Mississippi Valley late
in the week, flattening out early next week. Our next rain chances
will be focused on a shortwave that will ride along the top of
what`s left of the ridge late in the weekend. Main rain chances
with this feature look to be Sunday afternoon and evening. The
model solutions then begin to diverge early next week, with the
ECMWF wetter, but its solution has also shifted its rain/frontal
boundary quite a bit further north than the last run. Still looks
to be scattered storms in the general area on Monday with either
this solution or the GFS solution.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms north of St Louis
will weaken as it drifts NE toward SW TAF sites especially SPI
during overnight. Added VCSH to SPI, PIA and DEC to account for
this but think most areas will stay dry thru Tue morning with just
isolated showers. A light fog possible after 08Z with vsbys 4-6
miles especially at PIA where temp/dew point spread down to 5F
and best chances of reaching crossover temperatures within a
couple hours of sunrise. Isolated to scattered convection to
develop again by mid and late Tue afternoon in unstable air mass
with late afternoon CAPES peaking from 800-1600 j/kg and highest
near southeast airports of CMI and DEC. This convection to
dissipate around sunset so included VCTS after 20Z across the 5
central IL TAFs. SW winds 4-7 kts overnight into early Tue morning
to increase to near 10 kts after 15Z/10 AM Tue and diminish to
around 5 kts after sunset.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
143 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE...
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXPANSIVE
RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. DESPITE THIS
FACT...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/CVA ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE WILL HELP NUDGE THIS COLD
FRONT SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF. A COMPARISON OF THE 12Z KILX AND KDTX SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATES
THIS ONGOING MOISTURE SURGE. LOCAL PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 1.75 INCHES BY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER A SLOW START THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FINALLY SURGED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OUR
AREA. LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FINALLY NOSING INTO OUR CWA DESPITE PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE PROBLEM HERE REMAINS A LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT/TRIGGERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL DEPEND ON FINER
SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR GENERATES SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 22Z BUT SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER 00Z WHEN WHATEVER IS LEFT OF CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS FINALLY WASHES INTO OUR CWA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES US THOUGH. WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER END CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. IN VERY SUMMER-LIKE FASHION...EXPECT "POPCORN"
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LOW SEVERE RISK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT/LIMITED SHEAR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER.
SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PREVENT ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW HOWEVER. MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LITTLE
TO NO CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LOW...GENERALLY 1000
J/KG OR LESS...AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER RISK
IS THEREFORE LOW BUT ONCE AGAIN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING
AND TRAINING STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO MOVG THROUGH TOP OF WRN GRTLKS RIDGE THIS AFTN
EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD TO THE ERN GRTLKS BY TUE EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC
CDFNT TRAILING WSW THROUGH MN WILL BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA TUE NGT... THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH WED NGT. SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. INITIALLY WK DRY AIR PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION
PSBL EVEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL IN/OH. VERY WK FLOW/MOIST
AIRMASS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PSBL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTN/EVE WHEN
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED.
FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL
CONUS/CANADA AGAIN THU-FRI AS WEST COAST TROF DEEPENS. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... BUT STILL APPEARS IT
MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH TSTMS AND A FROPA IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE... WITH FROPA LOWERING TEMPS BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS HELPING MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING DESPITE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM AND STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES KSBN
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING. CIGS
AND VIS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONCERNED THAT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL YIELD MVFR BR. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT KFWA
WITH OUTFLOW MOVING AWAY AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS BUBBLE HIGH MOVES IN. SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH MVFR
BR HERE AS WELL. WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA EARLY TUE
EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY TODAY AND WITH NUMEROUS REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SEE SHOWER OR TSRA AT ABOUT ANY TIME
TODAY. CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF FRONT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT ASSUMING THE
RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. BASIC
SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY
MONDAY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS BRINGING A DRY SLOT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK.
KGLD...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST BY 09Z...NORTH AT 15Z AND NORTHEAST AROUND 18Z ALL
UNDER 10KTS. AFTER 02Z WINDS BECOME VRB06KTS.
KMCK...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME VARIBLE
AROUND 4KTS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
409 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE WESTERLIES ARE DISPLACE FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST GENERALLY EAST NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER...BEFORE
DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. LYING GENERALLY JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE WESTERLIES WAS A BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MARITIMES TO ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND THEN
WEST SOUTHEAST FROM THAT LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH WED...THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND DAMPEN WHILE DISTURBANCES IN THE
WESTERLIES LEAD TO A GRADUAL LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...THE SFC LOW INITIALLY
OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
DAWN ON WED. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH
THE RAP IS HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION A BIT BETTER THAN THE
HRRR. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR POINT TOWARD THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA OR DEVELOPING IN THAT
AREA PRIOR TO DAWN AND LINGERING A BIT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE
HRRR AND SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 0Z NAM HAD SOME
CONVECTION FROM THE LOZ AND SME AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SO FAR
HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS REGION...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAWN. THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE BIG SANDY REGION
AND PARTS OF THE VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AND WENT WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WORK AROUND THE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AFFECT THE OH VALLEY REGION
AROUND PEAK HEATING. ONCE GAIN TONIGHT...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER.
A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY ON WED IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. MODELS HAVE SOME HEIGHT
RISES BACK INTO EAST TN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY ON
WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND BACK
IN THAT DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA IS THE LOWEST FOR WED. SOME OF THAT
AREA COULD EXPERIENCE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION RATHER THAN LIKELY
COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD FOR LATE MAY...ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON
AVERAGE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE HIGHER ON AVERAGE ON WED...AND HOLD
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR TONIGHT OR IF
WERE TO REMAIN GENERALLY FREE OF CONVECTION...TUE NIGHT...VALLEY FOG
COULD BECOME A CONCERN AND TEMPS MIGHT DISPLAY MORE OF A MODERATE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH
SIMILAR DETAILS REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...AND TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION. THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO START OUT WITH
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY
DISPLACE THE RIDGE TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND WOULD BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SHOULD THE MODELS TURN OUT TO BE
CORRECT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS AND LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS REPEATED INVASIONS OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRY THINGS OUT. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU. INITIAL CONCERNS
ARE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FAVOR AREAS HIT WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ON MON...MAINLY LOZ. THIS FOG HAD BEEN SLOW TO
FORM...BUT SOME MVFR HAS OCCURRED AT TIMES...AND SOME IFR STILL COULD
OCCUR THERE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. AT THIS
POINT...LOZ...JKL AND SJS APPEAR TO BE MOST FAVORED. DEPENDING ON
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...SJS AND JKL MAY EXPERIENCE FOG LIFTING IN FROM
NEARBY VALLEYS. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS FROM ABOUT 10Z ON...WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP FOG SCATTER OUT AT
LOZ...AND THE OTHER TAF STIES. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
UNTIL 16Z-17Z...WHEN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED.
FROM ABOUT 22Z ON...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
207 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAIL OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS RATHER LOW. IT
WILL LIKELY NOT BE RAIN FREE...HOWEVER. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP CONVECTION TOWARD
DAWN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE BECOME ILL DEFINED AT THIS POINT.
THE RECENT HRRR RUNS GENERALLY DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CLOSER TO
DAWN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KY RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO THE BIG SANDY
REGION. THE 0Z NAM FOCUSED CONVECTION BETWEEN JKL AND LOZ SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
TUE...WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA. THE GFS WAS
OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION FORM INITIALIZATION TO THIS POINT AND WAS
NOT USED. THE 4Z RUC HAS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA
AROUND 8Z AND THEN TRANSLATES THIS EAST INTO VA AND WV SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN. OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE CONSSHORT
AND 4Z HRRR WAS USED FOR POPS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON TUE. THIS LED TO A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST AREAS AFTER THAT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS WERE USED IN SOME AREAS
OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND BIG SANDY REGION...GIVING A BIT MORE
WEIGHT TO THE HRRR.
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE LESS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE AFFECT BY VALLEY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP IS ALREADY OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT HI-RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS AS
OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE FOCUS IN THE MODELING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ABOUT
THE AREA WILL KEEP WITH A 20 POP IN LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ALLOWING FOR
AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO STRONG.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
CHURNING NEAR THE TX/AZ BORDER SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOCUSING ON ANY PARTICULAR WEAK
SIGNAL OUT THERE REMAINS FUTILE...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. WILL THEREFORE STICK WITH
PERSISTENCE...KEEPING THE CONVECTION MORE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED FOR
THE MOST PART.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF OF AN UPTICK TOWARDS
DAWN WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET LINGERING IN THE VICINITY AND MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE JUST A BIT BETTER OVERALL ALONG
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. EXPECT A SIMILAR INITIAL DROP
OFF IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE BALMY...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ON COURSE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
WEAK OMEGA BLOCK PUTTING A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
AND TWO CLOSED LOWS OFF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER AMPLIFIED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...REACHING EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THEN REMAINING
FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WILL ALLOW THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE NE TO ALSO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT FROM THE NE TO THE SW...PASSING INTO EASTERN KY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AND THEN JUST AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES
STATIONARY TO OUR SW...SO WILL TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
AND WESTERN KY.
ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK...WITH LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
/SHOULD STAY AROUND THE LOW 80S WITH THE WARM GULF AIR FILTERING
IN/...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LIFT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK
INSTABILITY/HEATING. CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS WELL...THOUGH BY SATURDAY
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY DROP JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWARD THAT DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN TO THE NORTH AND THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. `
BY MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL WORK IN FROM THE NE...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THOUGH
AT THIS POINT...MODELS SEEM QUITE DIVERGENT IN UPPER LEVEL
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU. INITIAL CONCERNS
ARE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FAVOR AREAS HIT WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ON MON...MAINLY LOZ. THIS FOG HAD BEEN SLOW TO
FORM...BUT SOME MVFR HAS OCCURRED AT TIMES...AND SOME IFR STILL COULD
OCCUR THERE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. AT THIS
POINT...LOZ...JKL AND SJS APPEAR TO BE MOST FAVORED. DEPENDING ON
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...SJS AND JKL MAY EXPERIENCE FOG LIFTING IN FROM
NEARBY VALLEYS. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS FROM ABOUT 10Z ON...WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP FOG SCATTER OUT AT
LOZ...AND THE OTHER TAF STIES. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
UNTIL 16Z-17Z...WHEN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED.
FROM ABOUT 22Z ON...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1158 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALL THAT REMAINS OVER EARLIER EAST TEXAS
CONVECTION...WHICH THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB WITH THIS EVENING.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT CONVECTION
OCCURRING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...SPREADING
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FIRST 12 HOURS
OR SO OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE LEFT INTACT...WITH TEMPO MVFR OR
PREVAILING MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
ADDITIONS INCLUDED PROB30S AT ALL SITES FOR THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME PREVAILING IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND SPATIAL
EXTENT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
CHURN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS FROM THE HOUSTON AREA NORTH TO NEAR
CARTHAGE. MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CROSSING
GALVESTON BAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS DO INDICATE THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO SOME DEGREE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AT THIS TIME THE IMPACTS TO KBPT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
THE INHERITED 18Z FORECAST...BUT DID CARRY MVFR AT KBPT AND KLCH
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBS. VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH TEMPO
MVFR TOWARD EARLY MORNING ALL BUT KBPT...WHERE PREVAILING MVFR WAS
RETAINED. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS TOMORROW
WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS MCS OVER SE TX MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY...ONLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
ALONG WITH HOUSTON...BELIEVE THE SVR WX THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TORNADOES...HAS DIMINISHED. THUS...CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 189.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS MCS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS SE TX TOWARDS BPT & ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. RE-
ADJUSTED POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX FOR THE WEAKENING MCS AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE LAKES REGION.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS OVER THE HOUSTON AREA MOVE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE AND WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT... A TOR WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES OF HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND
ORANGE TILL 9 PM.
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST IS
SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
THE REGION GIVING SE TX AND SRN LA THE FIRST REAL SHOT AT SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS TOMORROW MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING SEVERE. SINCE THIS WILL BE AN EVENT THAT LASTS FOR
FOUR TO FIVE DAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH UPWARDS TO SIX INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 84 70 81 70 / 20 50 60 80 50
KBPT 74 85 71 83 70 / 30 50 60 70 40
KAEX 69 84 68 81 67 / 20 60 60 80 40
KLFT 72 85 71 81 71 / 20 50 60 80 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG DOMINATING
THE NCENTRAL CONUS/CENTRAL CANADA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CNDN MARITIMES AND N OF CLOSED LO DRIFTING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. SFC
HI PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...AND A N WIND
ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN
ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD
FROPA A BIT FASTER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY. WITH A NNE WIND CLOSE TO 15 MPH AT HOUGHTON...THE SFC
DEWPT FELL FM 56 AT 27/00Z TO 45 AT 27/05Z. THE 05Z SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSION WAS 14 DEGREES THERE. N WIND UP TO 24 KTS REPORTED AT
STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUSE HAS ENHANCED THIS LLVL DRYING TREND. THERE
WAS SOME FOG ON LK SUP EARLIER...BUT RECENT SHIP OBS/STLT IMAGERY
INDICATE PATCHY FOG LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF ONLY ERN LK SUP. THE
LLVL DRYING HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DVLP OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...AND
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG HAVE FORMED IN THESE AREAS. A NEARLY STNRY LINE
OF SHOWERS/SOME TS LINGERS FM SCENTRAL MN ACROSS NCENTRAL WI TO LK
MI JUST S OF MENOMINEE TO THE S OF THE SFC COLD FNT WHERE THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING W TO E THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE IMPACT OF CURRENT LLVL
DRYING TRENDS AND WHETHER ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN WI WL IMPACT THE SRN
COUNTIES TODAY.
TODAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN INVIGORATING AREA OF SHOWERS TO
THE S OF UPR MI IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU THE DAY AND
WEAKEN UNDER SLOW H5 RISES AS THE UPR RDG SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
CWA. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO FADE AWAY BY 18Z
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SHRTWV AND CONTINUED DRY ADVCTN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THE HI PRES IN ONTARIO FCST TO BUILD INTO NCENTRAL LK
SUP THIS AFTN. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND THE STRONGER DRY ADVCTN
NOTED ABOVE...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE DRIER MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNED
TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND REMOVE POPS FM ALL BUT MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MRNG. IF THERE ARE ANY LO CLDS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA WHERE THE
LLVL DRYING HAS SO FAR BEEN MORE MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD DSPT WITH
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF BLDG HI PRES/DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
APRCHG 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL FARTHER FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUP. TEMPS NEAR THE BIG LK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S. DEEP MIXING OFF
THE DRIER GFS SDNGS WOULD INDICATE SFC DEWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE
TEENS TODAY. GIVEN THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...35 TO 45 FOR THE DEWPTS
SEEMS MORE RSNBL...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT
BY LATE AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
TNGT...POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH H85-5 MEAN RH FALLING AS LO AS 20 PCT. PWAT FCST 0.33-0.50 INCH
WL BE 50-75 PCT OF NORMAL. WITH LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM 12Z WED
THROUGH MOST OF SAT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA WED INTO SAT AS SFC RIDGING
REMAINS MOSTLY DOMINANT OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH ON WED AND THU WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY OF 10-14C. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND...WITH
COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NERN
CWA ON FRI...WHICH MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NERN CWA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CWA...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMER THERE THAN ON WED-THU. THINK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND IN THE LOW 80S INTERIOR W ARE REASONABLE...WITH
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL
SETUP IS AS FOLLOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO E OF THE CWA ON
SAT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NRN HUDSON BAY. THE SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO MN BY 00Z SUN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SLY FLOW.
850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO INCREASE TO 17C BY 00Z SUN. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W ARE CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SAT. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
ON THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY UP THE FRONT AND STALLS IT OVER THE CWA INTO MON. SUN AND MON
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS IN THIS
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH CHANCE
POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE N WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG
WL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LO CLDS/IFR CIGS AT MAINLY SAW...
WHERE THIS WIND PRESENTS A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT THE
MAGNITUDE OF RECENT DRYING AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX INDICATES
CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR ARE NOT LIKELY. IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
LLVL DRYING CONTINUES...THE LO CLDS FCST AT SAW MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
ANY LO CLDS/FOG THAT FORM WL DSPT LATER THIS MORNING AS CONTINUED DRY
ADVECTION TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND HIGH LATE MAY SUN
ANGLE DRY THE LLVLS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG DOMINATING
THE NCENTRAL CONUS/CENTRAL CANADA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CNDN MARITIMES AND N OF CLOSED LO DRIFTING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. SFC
HI PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...AND A N WIND
ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN
ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD
FROPA A BIT FASTER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY. WITH A NNE WIND CLOSE TO 15 MPH AT HOUGHTON...THE SFC
DEWPT FELL FM 56 AT 27/00Z TO 45 AT 27/05Z. THE 05Z SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSION WAS 14 DEGREES THERE. N WIND UP TO 24 KTS REPORTED AT
STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUSE HAS ENHANCED THIS LLVL DRYING TREND. THERE
WAS SOME FOG ON LK SUP EARLIER...BUT RECENT SHIP OBS/STLT IMAGERY
INDICATE PATCHY FOG LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF ONLY ERN LK SUP. THE
LLVL DRYING HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DVLP OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...AND
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG HAVE FORMED IN THESE AREAS. A NEARLY STNRY LINE
OF SHOWERS/SOME TS LINGERS FM SCENTRAL MN ACROSS NCENTRAL WI TO LK
MI JUST S OF MENOMINEE TO THE S OF THE SFC COLD FNT WHERE THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING W TO E THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE IMPACT OF CURRENT LLVL
DRYING TRENDS AND WHETHER ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN WI WL IMPACT THE SRN
COUNTIES TODAY.
TODAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN INVIGORATING AREA OF SHOWERS TO
THE S OF UPR MI IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU THE DAY AND
WEAKEN UNDER SLOW H5 RISES AS THE UPR RDG SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
CWA. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO FADE AWAY BY 18Z
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SHRTWV AND CONTINUED DRY ADVCTN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THE HI PRES IN ONTARIO FCST TO BUILD INTO NCENTRAL LK
SUP THIS AFTN. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND THE STRONGER DRY ADVCTN
NOTED ABOVE...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE DRIER MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNED
TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND REMOVE POPS FM ALL BUT MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MRNG. IF THERE ARE ANY LO CLDS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA WHERE THE
LLVL DRYING HAS SO FAR BEEN MORE MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD DSPT WITH
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF BLDG HI PRES/DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
APRCHG 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL FARTHER FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUP. TEMPS NEAR THE BIG LK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S. DEEP MIXING OFF
THE DRIER GFS SDNGS WOULD INDICATE SFC DEWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE
TEENS TODAY. GIVEN THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...35 TO 45 FOR THE DEWPTS
SEEMS MORE RSNBL...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT
BY LATE AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
TNGT...POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH H85-5 MEAN RH FALLING AS LO AS 20 PCT. PWAT FCST 0.33-0.50 INCH
WL BE 50-75 PCT OF NORMAL. WITH LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM 12Z WED
THROUGH MOST OF SAT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA WED INTO SAT AS SFC RIDGING
REMAINS MOSTLY DOMINANT OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH ON WED AND THU WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY OF 10-14C. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND...WITH
COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NERN
CWA ON FRI...WHICH MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NERN CWA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CWA...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMER THERE THAN ON WED-THU. THINK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND IN THE LOW 80S INTERIOR W ARE REASONABLE...WITH
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL
SETUP IS AS FOLLOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO E OF THE CWA ON
SAT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NRN HUDSON BAY. THE SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO MN BY 00Z SUN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SLY FLOW.
850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO INCREASE TO 17C BY 00Z SUN. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W ARE CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SAT. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
ON THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY UP THE FRONT AND STALLS IT OVER THE CWA INTO MON. SUN AND MON
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS IN THIS
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH CHANCE
POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE N WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG
WL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LO CLDS/IFR CIGS AT MAINLY SAW...
WHERE THIS WIND PRESENTS A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT THE
MAGNITUDE OF RECENT DRYING AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX INDICATES
CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR ARE NOT LIKELY. IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
LLVL DRYING CONTINUES...THE LO CLDS FCST AT SAW MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
ANY LO CLDS/FOG THAT FORM WL DSPT LATER THIS MORNING AS CONTINUED DRY
ADVECTION TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND HIGH LATE MAY SUN
ANGLE DRY THE LLVLS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
331 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN ONTARIO...TOO FAR N TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT
FORCING-WISE ACROSS UPPER MI AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LOCATION OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS
EXPECTED...CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE LAST 12 TO 18HRS. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
0.5 INCHES/72PCT OF NORMAL WHILE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED 1.45
INCHES/208PCT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...MORNING SUNSHINE LED TO QUICK
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND NOW SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W 2/3RDS OF UPPER MI. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYIS SHOWS MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. WEAK SHEAR
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT IS KEEPING STORMS IN CHECK. LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CLOSER TO 30KT HAS LED TO A FEW STRONG STORMS IN NE WI
TO THE W AND NW OF KMNM. STORMS THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF
CIRCULATION AND HAIL SIGNATURES. UPSTREAM...BEHIND COLD FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITH HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE...THE
STRATUS/FOG HAS COMPLETELY MIXED OUT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SHRA
THAT MOVED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HELPED GENERATE FOG
THAT HAS QUICKLY ADVECTED N TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS...FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER W AND CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR...APPARENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOLELY EXISTING BECAUSE OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY END FROM N
TO S THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTING E FROM MN...AND MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING ACROSS NRN WI/ADJACENT UPPER MI. IN
LIGHT OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE WI/MI BORDER INTO
SCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG TODAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR GREATLY INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ONSHORE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...
FCST WILL REFLECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BEST
CHC OF LOWER VIS AND -DZ OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS FLOW BECOME MORE SHARPLY UPSLOPE IN THAT AREA.
ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS/-DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF -SHRA ALONG MI/WI BORDER INTO THE MID
AFTN HRS UNTIL DRIER AIR MAKES A STRONGER PRESENCE AS SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER S. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE COMPARED TO TODAY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET OUT
OF THE 50S AND SOME MAY SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 40S. ACROSS THE
S...MIXING TOWARD 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM 12Z WED
THROUGH MOST OF SAT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA WED INTO SAT AS SFC RIDGING
REMAINS MOSTLY DOMINANT OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH ON WED AND THU WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY OF 10-14C. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND...WITH
COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NERN
CWA ON FRI...WHICH MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NERN CWA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CWA...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMER THERE THAN ON WED-THU. THINK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND IN THE LOW 80S INTERIOR W ARE REASONABLE...WITH
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL
SETUP IS AS FOLLOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO E OF THE CWA ON
SAT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NRN HUDSON BAY. THE SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO MN BY 00Z SUN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SLY FLOW.
850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO INCREASE TO 17C BY 00Z SUN. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W ARE CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SAT. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
ON THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY UP THE FRONT AND STALLS IT OVER THE CWA INTO MON. SUN AND MON
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS IN THIS
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH CHANCE
POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE N WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG
WL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LO CLDS/IFR CIGS AT MAINLY SAW...
WHERE THIS WIND PRESENTS A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT THE
MAGNITUDE OF RECENT DRYING AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX INDICATES
CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR ARE NOT LIKELY. IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
LLVL DRYING CONTINUES...THE LO CLDS FCST AT SAW MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
ANY LO CLDS/FOG THAT FORM WL DSPT LATER THIS MORNING AS CONTINUED DRY
ADVECTION TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND HIGH LATE MAY SUN
ANGLE DRY THE LLVLS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL. IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD S TO THE UPPER
MI SHORE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS S INTO UPPER MI. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN ONTARIO...TOO FAR N TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT
FORCING-WISE ACROSS UPPER MI AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LOCATION OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS
EXPECTED...CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE LAST 12 TO 18HRS. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
0.5 INCHES/72PCT OF NORMAL WHILE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED 1.45
INCHES/208PCT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...MORNING SUNSHINE LED TO QUICK
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND NOW SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W 2/3RDS OF UPPER MI. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYIS SHOWS MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. WEAK SHEAR
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT IS KEEPING STORMS IN CHECK. LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CLOSER TO 30KT HAS LED TO A FEW STRONG STORMS IN NE WI
TO THE W AND NW OF KMNM. STORMS THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF
CIRCULATION AND HAIL SIGNATURES. UPSTREAM...BEHIND COLD FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITH HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE...THE
STRATUS/FOG HAS COMPLETELY MIXED OUT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SHRA
THAT MOVED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HELPED GENERATE FOG
THAT HAS QUICKLY ADVECTED N TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS...FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER W AND CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR...APPARENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOLELY EXISTING BECAUSE OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY END FROM N
TO S THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTING E FROM MN...AND MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING ACROSS NRN WI/ADJACENT UPPER MI. IN
LIGHT OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE WI/MI BORDER INTO
SCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG TODAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR GREATLY INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ONSHORE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...
FCST WILL REFLECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BEST
CHC OF LOWER VIS AND -DZ OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS FLOW BECOME MORE SHARPLY UPSLOPE IN THAT AREA.
ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS/-DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF -SHRA ALONG MI/WI BORDER INTO THE MID
AFTN HRS UNTIL DRIER AIR MAKES A STRONGER PRESENCE AS SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER S. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE COMPARED TO TODAY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET OUT
OF THE 50S AND SOME MAY SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 40S. ACROSS THE
S...MIXING TOWARD 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS...A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S INLAND WED AND THE LOWER 80S THU ...PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN THE FROM NNE WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY WEAK
SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
SAT-MON...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE RESULTING FROM A SHRTWV MOVING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RETAINED THERE SLOWER
SOLUTION AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE FASTER ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
DRY WEATHER BY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHILE THE GFS REMAINED SIGNFICANTLY
SLOWER. UNTIL THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO MON...PER MDLS CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE
WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE N WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG
WL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LO CLDS/IFR CIGS AT MAINLY SAW...
WHERE THIS WIND PRESENTS A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT THE
MAGNITUDE OF RECENT DRYING AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX INDICATES
CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR ARE NOT LIKELY. IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
LLVL DRYING CONTINUES...THE LO CLDS FCST AT SAW MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
ANY LO CLDS/FOG THAT FORM WL DSPT LATER THIS MORNING AS CONTINUED DRY
ADVECTION TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND HIGH LATE MAY SUN
ANGLE DRY THE LLVLS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL. IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD S TO THE UPPER
MI SHORE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS S INTO UPPER MI. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
PCPN-FREE... BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
COMPACT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND BEST DEPICTED BY THE 400-300 MB PV FROM THE RAP
AND NAM. PCPN IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PV
ANOMALY... COINCIDENT WITH THE GRADIENT OF A COMPACT 300 MB JET IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 KT. THE FEATURE IS ALSO LENDING ITSELF TO
SOME MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION... WHICH IS HELPING THINGS OUT BY
PROVIDING A BIT OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE
WORKING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A SHIELD OF PATCHY PCPN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER
THE AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC SFCOA RUNNING AROUND
250-500 J/KG. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHT... THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS
ARE EVEN SHOWING A HINT OF LARGE SCALE QG FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE... AND MANAGE TO WRING OUT SOME QG-FORCED PCPN THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NEARING ITS NORTHERN MOST REACH... AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS OUT
A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER... AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AND WARMING ONCE
AGAIN... WHICH WILL HELP BUMP UP INSTABILITY... AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WHEREVER WE HAVE LINGERING FORCING
FROM THIS LARGER SCALE FEATURE OR LOCALIZED WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OVERALL... THE
IMPACT OF EACH OF THOSE THINGS SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY... SO WILL START TO SHIFT POPS SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING... WHILE ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
HAVE SOME CONCERN WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS ONCE AGAIN... BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF
THE MIX FOR NOW WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE CAMS THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS ALSO INDICATE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM OUR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING... WHICH WOULD HELP MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL OF
ANYTHING UPSTREAM WORKING INTO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN... SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN IN OUR AREA GIVEN A LACK OF
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
CERTAINLY BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN WITH SLOWLY MOVING STORMS AND
REMAINING MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... COULD SEE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD UPDRAFTS COLLOCATE THEMSELVES WITH
THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THEY DID YESTERDAY... AND MANAGE
TO STRETCH THE BACKGROUND SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG IT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SOUTH AND
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA... WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE MOST POTENT UPDRAFTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL DRYING TREND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND.
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE DRIVEN WEST AS SURFACE HIGH DROPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME MINOR COOLING...MAINLY
TO THE EAST INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
THROUGH 80S ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WITH TIME. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDER INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WORKS TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
WITH ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF REMNANTS
OF DAKOTAS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SMALL POP IN THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE DECENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL PLUME
MOISTURE ADDED TO THE MIX AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT WELL INTO OUR CWA BY
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRIVING IT SOUTH TO AT LEAST THE MN/IA
BORDER BY THAT TIME. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THERE IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH MN/WI...WHICH MEANS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RAIN...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
NEAR CALM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR MIST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
KMSP...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER IS VERY MINIMAL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SE WND LESS THAN 5 KT.
WED NGT THRU FRI. VFR. S-SE WND 5 KT OR LESS BCMG SE 10-15 KT FRI.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Quick update to bring likely PoPs late this evening into the metro
area before tapering them off as the forcing weakens overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms have progressed steadily eastward the
past two hours eastward into east central Missouri and will likely
continue to move east and northeast through 05Z per the RAP.
Britt
Issued at 758 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Updated forecast to increase PoPs over central and northeast
Missouri. This is where showers and thunderstorms are being
generated by a pocket of low level moisture convergence ahead of
weak mid level vort max. Latest RAP shows this convergence
weakening over next few hours, though the HRRR reflectivity does
hold on to some scattered thunderstorms through the mid evening
hours across eastern Missouri. Will go will a slow decrease in
areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms the next few hours
based on this guidance. Only minor tweaks needed to going
temperature and wind forecast.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Decent amount of convection developed across most of the FA this
afternoon. Since daytime heating appeared to be the primary
driving force, loss of heating as we head into the evening hours
should lead to a decrease in coverage and intensity. There does
appear to be a bit of shortwave energy brushing northwest areas of
the CWA early tonight, so have held onto the precip the longest in that
area.
Not sure how much activity there will be heading into the predawn
hours, but there does seem to be some consensus that shortwave
sweeping through east side of upper low may approach s MO during
by daybreak. So have reintroduced some low PoPs over southern
sections of the FA for late tonight.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Precip chances will continue to be the primary concern throughout
much of this week due to a combination of features propagating
through the unseasonably strong upper ridge that remains anchored
over the central CONUS. Of course, the main feature is the cutoff
low which is still progged to continue to toss pieces of energy our
way as it gradually heads to the LA coast by Thursday. Meanwhile,
12z model runs are also continuing the idea of weak shortwave
overtopping the ridge at midweek, with this feature trickling down
the east side of the ridge and into the Mississippi Valley on
Thursday.
These features, combined with the weakly unstable and uncapped AMS
that will remain locked over the area, should mean a persistent
threat of showers and thunderstorms. It still appears that PoPs
will continue to exhibit a fairly strong diurnal swing, and have
attempted to place highest PoPs where the combination of instability
and weak dynamics will co-exist during the afternoon hours.
Unfortunately, this pattern does not lend itself to a high level
of precision regarding timing and location, so additional
refinement will be limited to first period/nowcast part of
forecast.
For Friday and Saturday, the latest raw model data and associated
MOS continue to suggest low PoPs across the FA, despite the fact
that by this time the upper low will be over the Gulf and
500mb heights over the mid-Mississippi Valley will be aoa
586dm. There does seem to be some feeble weakness in the UA field
that gets locked beneath the ridge (perhaps a remnant of Thursday
shortwave), and this combined with the fact that this threat has
been a consistent message for several days have continued low
chance PoPs during this time, with Saturday`s PoPs confined to
areas along and west of Mississippi River in most unstable AMS.
Precip chances should increase a bit more heading into next week
as a series of shortwaves begin to flatten the ridge.
With no real change in AMS over the next 7 days temperatures
should follow persistence in most areas, with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Some light fog is possible overnight if
winds become calm and skies clear out. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop after 18z and dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating. The prevailing wind direction remains south or
southwest, but outflow boundaries from earlier convection may
temporarily alter the flow.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Areas of precipitation have moved
away from the St. Louis metro area terminals, but the additional
low-level moisture may contribute to overnight fog formation at
KSUS/KCPS, especially if any clearing occurs. T/Td spreads at KSTL
at TAF issuance were large enough to limit the expected fog
threat, but this will need to be monitored through the night.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after 18z and
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. The prevailing wind
direction remains south or southwest, but outflow boundaries from
earlier convection may temporarily alter the flow.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GOOD MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CAPE MODEST. K INDICES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 35C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE
WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT STORM MOTION WOULD BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AS
INDICATED IN THE NAM AND GFS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT NOT ON A GROSS SCALE AS OFTEN OCCURS IN JULY AND AUGUST
WHEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.
THE TSTMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF
MONDAYS DEVELOPMENT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED THEDFORD SOUTH
AND EAST THRU CUSTER COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH. THE RUC INDICATED
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS AFTN ALSO WHICH APPEARS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY PROBLEM
WITH THE FORECAST IS H700MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHICH
COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL POPS WERE TIME
SHIFTED 3 HOURS FORWARD AS IT APPEARED STORMS WOULD DEVELOP FROM
21Z-03Z AND COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SLIGHT WARMING AT H700MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MIXING HEIGHT MONDAY AFTN AT KLBF WAS 715 MB AND 750 MB AT KUNR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WARM...SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES HEADLINE
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION INITIALLY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK...WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHOWING
SIGNS OF A BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH/ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AS A 587DM
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WELL INTO THE
80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY...PLACING THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
STILL WITHIN THE REGION...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-40% POPS ACROSS OUR
WEST /GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61/ AS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE WEEKEND...A NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND
LOCATIONAL DIFFERENCES OF ANY PROJECTED BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THESE
STORMS...SO ATTM WON/T VENTURE AWAY FROM THE ALLBLEND PROCEDURE
WHICH RESPONDED WITH 40% POPS AND LESS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
UNTIL SUNDAY...SO SVR CHANCES ARE LOW INITIALLY...BUT MAY INCREASE
LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR MOST PLACES. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING OMEGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A PIECE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY....BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WIND AND VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
418 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE RELUCTANT TO MIX
OUT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING STABLE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE FROM
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER...BUT
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER PROMPTED ME TO SCALE BACK
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE...INTO MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN. POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS
MAY EVEN BE STUCK IN THE LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
DIVIDING THE COASTAL HIGH...FROM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
HUDSON BAY...WILL BE A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE CENTERED LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE
POPS AROUND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...COMPELLED ME TO
ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER...FAIR SKIES...AND AT LEAST
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TIME. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS ENTERS THE
PICTURE. ECMWF IS FASTER TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS RIDGING YET
ALSO ALLOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION WITH TIME
WITH MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL WNW TO ESE ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP.
AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS FOR EXPECTED
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30 TSRA GROUPS INTO
A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME PROB30 GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM
OF THUNDER. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND/OR SCT
SHRA-TSRA CONTINUES ALONG IT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
417 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUES MORNING THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED SFC LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER
TO THE BORDER OF WESTERN NY. THE SFC LOW WILL BRING A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. THIS "BOUNDARY" WILL LINGER OVER
NY/PA THROUGH LATE TUES NIGHT. TUES MORNING A VORT MAX WILL MOVE
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR RIDGE AND INTERSECT THIS
BOUNDARY TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING. THIS WAVE
AND BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
TUES AFTERNOON THE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO NY/PA. PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THIS BEING AROUND ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AND IS ROUGHLY TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ML CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO >1000
J/KG OVER PA AND VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG NORTH OF THE
BORDER OF NY. MODEST MID AND LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROLONG ONCE THEY
DEVELOP INTO AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE ROUGHLY 20
KNOTS. DUE TO ALL THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF NY AND
OVER NORTHEAST PA.
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO WED
MORNING AND BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...ALL
GUIDANCE HAS IT THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE WED MORNING. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY WED
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING THE 70S. AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE RELUCTANT TO MIX
OUT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING STABLE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE FROM
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER...BUT
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER PROMPTED ME TO SCALE BACK
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE...INTO MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN. POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS
MAY EVEN BE STUCK IN THE LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
DIVIDING THE COASTAL HIGH...FROM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
HUDSON BAY...WILL BE A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE CENTERED LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE
POPS AROUND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...COMPELLED ME TO
ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER...FAIR SKIES...AND AT LEAST
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TIME. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS ENTERS THE
PICTURE. ECMWF IS FASTER TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS RIDGING YET
ALSO ALLOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION WITH TIME
WITH MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL WNW TO ESE ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP.
AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS FOR EXPECTED
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30 TSRA GROUPS INTO
A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME PROB30 GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM
OF THUNDER. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND/OR SCT
SHRA-TSRA CONTINUES ALONG IT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
255 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AGAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUES MORNING THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED SFC LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER
TO THE BORDER OF WESTERN NY. THE SFC LOW WILL BRING A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. THIS "BOUNDARY" WILL LINGER OVER
NY/PA THROUGH LATE TUES NIGHT. TUES MORNING A VORT MAX WILL MOVE
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR RIDGE AND INTERSECT THIS
BOUNDARY TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING. THIS WAVE
AND BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
TUES AFTERNOON THE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO NY/PA. PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THIS BEING AROUND ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AND IS ROUGHLY TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ML CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO >1000
J/KG OVER PA AND VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG NORTH OF THE
BORDER OF NY. MODEST MID AND LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROLONG ONCE THEY
DEVELOP INTO AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE ROUGHLY 20
KNOTS. DUE TO ALL THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF NY AND
OVER NORTHEAST PA.
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION INTO WED
MORNING AND BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...ALL
GUIDANCE HAS IT THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE WED MORNING. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY WED
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE DRY BUT CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING THE 70S. AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THEN SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. IN GENERAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
INITIALLY PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS TROF
AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR
A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
A SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL START IMPACTING OUR
WEATHER SO WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL WNW TO ESE ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP.
AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS FOR EXPECTED
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30 TSRA GROUPS INTO
A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME PROB30 GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM
OF THUNDER. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND/OR SCT
SHRA-TSRA CONTINUES ALONG IT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH MAY GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA RAIN FREE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY
AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 HAS BEEN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MAKES IT WAY
EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SMALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE-BASED CAPE INCREASES TO 1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING`S WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
AFTERNOON...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG THE PIEDMONT/
SANDHILLS INTERFACE PLUS THE SEABREEZE COULD INITIATE NEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS...WITH THE HRRR AND RUC IN THE
MIDDLE. MY FORECAST POPS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT A LITTLE LOWER
IN THE WILMINGTON AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT
AROUND 90 IN THE DARLINGTON-BENNETTSVILLE AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT THAN WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY FINDS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN POKED UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE RIDGE
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO CAP OFF ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION BUT COVERAGE MAY BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM COMPARED TO OTHER
DAYS OF THE FCST. PIEDMONT TROUGH TO OUR WEST MORE A FOCUS ACCORDING
TO WRF WHEREAS GFS SEEMS TO LIKE GFS BETTER. GIVEN THAT STORM
MOTION WILL HAVE A GOOD EASTERLY COMPONENT FEEL THAT THE MOS POPS
GENERALLY AROUND 40 WILL SUFFICE AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SO PICKING
OUT FAVORED AREAS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED/LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
SINCE PLACES SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE TO ITS NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH POSITION OF BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO TELL THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS OVER NRN ZONES. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHIFT OF EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY MAY BE DRY FOR ALL BUT
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. THIS SETUP LASTS INTO SUNDAY...GENERALLY
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A RETURN OF TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IF NOT A TAD HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8
KTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT AS IT APPEARS
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND FOG SEEMS
UNLIKELY. INCREASING MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INLAND SFC TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS
FOR KFLO/KLBT AFTER MIDDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WHICH WARRANTS VCSH FOR
KMYR/KCRE/KILM AFTER 18Z. WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH INLAND ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY...SO THE
COASTAL TERMS COULD SEE PCPN EVEN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...BUT BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 KTS AT THE COASTAL SITES BY THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS A
COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE TODAY. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL HELP COMPRESS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING 15 KNOTS. ADD TO THAT
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WE COULD SEE WINDS NEARSHORE INCREASE TO
20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MARINE MOS
GUIDANCE BASED OFF THE GFS EVEN HAS 24 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MY FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT STRONG...
IT STILL SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY AT THE BEACHES AND ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS UP AT CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE FROM THE WEST PUSHING ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS EASTWARD. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD
BUILD TO 3-4 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A BIT OF A PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. MORE ACCURATE TO SAY THAT SW WINDS THE RESULT OF PIEDMONT
TROUGH SINCE THE ACTUAL BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. IT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY HOWEVER AND BE QUITE SLOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL TEND TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEN A N TO NE FLOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL ZONES MAY END UP BISECTED NORTH TO
SOUTH BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL THUS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AND AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN. SEAS
THUS REMAIN QUITE TAME...GENERALLY JUST 2 FT OR LESS. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MANAGES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. A NE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO THE DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS BUT NO ADVISORY OR EVEN HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPDATED MAINLY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A DOWNTREND OVER THE PAST HOUR AND
CURRENTLY NO SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT. LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD BISMARCK DISSIPATING
QUICKLY AS IT APPROACHES BISMARCK. CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL HAS ALL BUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAINS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE 01 UTC HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPERCELL ACROSS DUNN COUNTY AND
MULTI CELL CLUSTERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES AS OF 245 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR HOURS...POTENTIALLY INTO THE BISMARCK/MANDAN
AREA...DICKINSON...MOTT AND GLEN ULLIN. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO HRRR FOR POPS. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. ADDED A SEVERE MENTION FOR ALL POPS THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT
FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THIS UPDATE TO FOCUS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
TRIMMED POPS SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE EVENING AND LOWERED CLOUDS
ALSO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND ADDED LARGE HAIL TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC-BASED CAPE
AROUND 1400 J/KG AND 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT.
ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
BY TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL GENERATE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...REMOVED SEVERE
MENTION FROM TUESDAY`S FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY.
FOR TUESDAY EVENING...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ONGOING OR EXITING OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SHOULD ACT TO STEER ANY OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES NORTHERLY
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...PERHAPS GRAZING WEST OR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AM HOURS. WE ARE THEN VERY MUCH CAPPED DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ACROSS THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST CLOSER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR A SFC TROUGH NEARING THE MT/ND
BORDER.
SFC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED. MID LEVEL SUPPORT UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER MY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.
UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MODELS DISAGREEING ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS EVENTUALLY EJECTED NORTH
AND EAST. WHICHEVER MODEL VERIFIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ALLBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
CONVECTION ONGOING AT TAF ISSUANCE FOR KDIK. UNSURE IF CONVECTION
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO BISMARCK BUT DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER AT KBIS FOR NOW FROM 06-08Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EARLIER IN THE DAY AT KDIK THEN
SPREADING INTO KMOT AND KBIS MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KJMS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. KISN SHOULD HAVE THE LEAST THREAT OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
339 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SQUARELY FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH TODAY.
CURRENTLY... AN MCV... WHICH DEVELOPED LAST EVENING... CONTINUES TO
CHURN OVER WRN OK... WELL VISUALIZED BY THE MESONET OBS AND RADAR
MOSAIC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE SLOWLY THIS MORNING... WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS W/NW OK. S/SE OF THIS FEATURE...
A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE E/NE ACROSS NRN
TX. THIS CONVECTION WAS INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND MCV
IN CENTRAL TX... BUT NOW IT`S DRIVEN MORE BY THE CUTOFF LOW...
WITH MAINTENANCE PROVIDED BY A MODERATE LLJ AND DECENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 305-310 K LEVELS. SPEAKING OF OUR CUTOFF LOW...
IT`S FINALLY ON THE MOVE... WITH CURRENT WV PLACING IT NEAR/OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... PRIMARILY FROM THE HRRR AND RAP... CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SLIGHT FILLING IN OF CONVECTION BETWEEN THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND THE CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER IN NRN TX. DISCLAIMER... AND AS MANY HAVE NOTICED...
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY RELIABLE OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4
DAYS... AS OVER CONVECTING HAS BEEN A PROBLEM WITH MULTIPLE
RUNS/MODELS. HOWEVER... THROUGH 0830Z... UPDRAFTS HAVE CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP WELL NE OF THE WICHITA MTNS AND JUST WEST OF I-44.
MEANWHILE... THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NRN TX IS STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO SRN OK. IT APPEARS THAT THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE IS BEGINNING TO WIN OUT OVER THAT OF THE
MESOSCALE... THINK MCV VS CUTOFF LOW. WITH THAT SAID... IT`S GOING
TO BE ANOTHER WAIT AND SEE MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS SRN OK... POSSIBLY BRIDGING THE
GAP BETWEEN THE NORTH AND SOUTH CONVECTION. FIRST STAB WOULD BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL OK NEAR OR
JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
THROUGH THE MORNING... INITIALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE... WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OK AS THE H500 CUTOFF LOW
TAKES A TRACK ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH NOON. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE AFTN...
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH INTO ERN OK. WITH THE UPPER LOW SINKING
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT... LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST
ACROSS ERN OK... BUT THEY WILL BE LOW.
FOR WEDNESDAY... CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OK. BY 18Z WED... THE H500
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOW AND LINGER OVER THE ARKLATEX. TO THE WEST...
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES A STEEP RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE PACNW. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... THE CUTOFF LOW WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN
SHORT... BASICALLY A REX BLOCK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN... RESULTING IN NEAR CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... THE OZARKS... AND TO THE GULF COAST.
GIVEN OK AND NRN TX WILL BE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW...
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
ERN OK AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH SAT BEFORE THE BLOCKING PATTERN
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST.
AFTER SEASONABLE HIGHS THIS WEEK... EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... WITH HIGHS NEARING THE UPPER 80S TO 90S ONCE
AGAIN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS FAR NRN OK SUN-TUE AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE
THE WRN TROUGH... RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 61 84 63 / 60 20 20 10
HOBART OK 79 59 86 60 / 50 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 62 86 63 / 40 10 10 10
GAGE OK 82 59 88 60 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 61 85 64 / 50 20 10 10
DURANT OK 77 64 82 65 / 60 40 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIP/STORM CHANCES TODAY.
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ON THE HEELS OF LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY
AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHWEST ND AND NORTHWEST SD. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO
NORTHWEST SD BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH...OVERALL SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...BUT MODELS DO SHOW
VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST.
GENERAL AIR MASS LATER TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING. HI RES MODELS DO
SHOW SOME ISOLD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAR
WEST TO CARRY THIS IS LOW. HAVE A FEELING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA IS GAME FOR SMALL/ISOLD CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL/WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THE
CWA MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS
LEFT OVER ACROSS NORTHERN SD FROM THE ND MCS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
LATEST HRRR RUN COMING IN AND IT SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONGER CELLS
ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES AROUND 22Z. TEND TO HAVE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS AND
IT MAKES SENSE AS WELL GIVEN THE SFC FRONT PLACEMENT BY LATER
TODAY. SHEAR IS STRONGEST HERE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/WEAK
CAPPING EXIST AS WELL.
CAPPING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AREAS MAY
EVEN HIT 90 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES GIVE
OR TAKE...CONDITIONS WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ABOUT HEIGHT
FALLS...AND A FOCUSING SURFACE FRONT ADVECTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SCT AND EVEN LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE REGION. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL
PRETTY MARGINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THUS HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS MIGHT BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THEME. BY LATE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...ENOUGH THAT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IS SOMEWHAT LOW. THE ECMWF SUPPRESSES THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/SFC
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH VS THE GFS AND THUS IS COOLER WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND LESS RAINFALL. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND
TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH HIGH DEW
POINTS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH
MAYBE SOME VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS
FORMING AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...LIFTING SLOWLY EAST. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.
NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM DEPICTED THE MIDSOUTH FREE OF RAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
00Z HRRR SHOWED A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED PREDAWN WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE RIVER.
FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO WITH A SLIGHT NOD GIVEN TO THE
HRRR PREDAWN PRECIP CHANCES. OTHERWISE...FEW OTHER CHANGES.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE PROBABLY STILL ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AWAY
AND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED...ENHANCED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM AROUND 500 TO 1500
J/KG WITH LI`S FROM -2 TO -4C. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT SUCH
AS WE SAW YESTERDAY OR SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN A QUIET RADAR.
TONIGHT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
TOMORROW INTO MIDWEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ENHANCING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN RAINFALL CHANCES AND
RESULTING RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. FORECAST
INSTABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND WE STILL WILL NOT HAVE ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURES TO HELP FOCUS LIFT. AS A RESULT...LEANING SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...EXPECTING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR STORMS CAN PULSE SO AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NOT MENTION
EVEN STRONG STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW INTACT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND STALLS IT OVER NORTH LOUISIANA. THE GFS WEAKENS IT
CONSIDERABLY AND TAKES IT NEAR THE GULF COAST IN SOUTH LOUISIANA.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK. WILL FAVOR THAT SCENARIO...BUT KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW GFS MOS.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN.
EXPECT EARLY SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE
20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE RANGE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 7
TO 10 KTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN
LATE TONIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
27/10Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY SO WENT VCSH. BY 27/15Z
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR ALL SITES AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE
WARRANTING VCTS THROUGH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AFTER 28/01Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ZONES BETWEEN
09-10Z IF ITS HOLD TOGETHER. SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER SO SPED UP THE TIME SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AT KCLL AND KUTS. HAVE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE
ARW-EAST AND RAP 13 FOR THE TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER NOW THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE BULLISH WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON TUES MORNING/AFTN. COLD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY SO HAVE AN EXTENDED TEMPO GROUP BUT NOT QUITE SURE HOW
ELSE TO HANDLE RAIN CHANCES. POOR AVIATION CONDS ARE EXPECTED TUES
MORNING INTO TUES AFTN WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY
EVENING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL FELL TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH
TOTALS UP TO SEVEN INCHES IN JACKSON COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS WE
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OR RECONFIGURED BASED ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP TOMORROW.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
TOMORROW BUT HAVE FOR THE MOST PART HAD TROUBLE INITIALIZING. HIGH
RES ARW AND HRRR SHOW CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA
HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH RAINFALL
TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN DOES SEEM TO MAKE SENSE THOUGH
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH IS
SCHEDULED TO PUSH TO THE EAST. THE NEW 0Z NAM AGAIN SHOWS ANOTHER
SLUG OF PVA HEADING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW WHICH COULD SET
UP ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO LOOKS TO
TEMPORARILY MOVE US INTO A LFQ IN THE MORNING BUT ONLY TO
TRANSITION INTO CONVERGENT REGIONS (RFQ/ LRQ) OF THE JET BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS DUE SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON RAIN MAKING IT INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND 5 AM (KCLL) AND THEN PUSHING INTO
HOUSTON AROUND 8 AM. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS TIMING AN
EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO GET REFINED. 23
CLIMATE...
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY:
2.91" - KIAH (RECORD)
3.22" - KHOU (RECORD)
1.51" - KSGR (RECORD)
23/43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
UPDATE...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PROPAGATION OF THE OVERNIGHT PCPN THROUGH SE TX THIS AFTN LIKELY
HELPED BY SPLITTING JET ALOFT/INFLUX OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE FROM THE GULF. SAVE FOR THE LEADING TSRA (WHICH PROMPTED THE
WARNINGS) THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERAL-
LY MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING MUCH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXPECT A BREAK
OVERNIGHT. BUT PER WV IMAGERY ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SEEM TO BE
HEADED THIS WAY.
AND SO...THE FCST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ACT-
IVE SIDE WITH THE SLOW APPROACH/POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE MAIN UP-
PER LOW OVER SE TX. MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE 12Z RUNS
SEEM TO BE WITH THE END OF PCPN CHCS...WHICH COULD EXTEND TO SAT.
OTHERWISE NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE GRIDS AS MODELS ARE/HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM RATHER CONSISTENTLY. GIVEN THE PROGGED
DYNAMICS AND ONGOING TRENDS THE FCST OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WX/HEAVY
RAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 82 69 83 70 / 60 70 50 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 82 70 84 71 / 40 70 40 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 82 73 83 74 / 30 60 40 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
437 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A
WEAK TROF IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEE TROF AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW FROM THE MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT OR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO NARROW DOWN MORE
LIKELY LOCATION OR TIMING FOR STORMS. ALSO...06Z HRRR HAD ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AFTER 10Z/6AM. THIS MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
4AM. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL CERTAINLY BE REDUCED.
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THIS MORNING. STAYED CLOSER
TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER FILLS IN THIS MORNING.
WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD. BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT SLOWLY DROPS FROM NE TO SW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ALONG AND JUST TO THE WEST/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IS TYPICALLY FAVORED. RATHER WEAK FLOW COULD LEAD TO COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS AND/OR BACKBUILDING STORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HANGS THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO KEEP
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE THROUGH NW NC. ALL OTHER MODELS
PLUNGE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FURTHER SOUTH WHICH SHUTS OFF STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE TOUGH...HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON WHICH CITIES GET RAIN...AND THEN ON FRIDAY...HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS PENETRATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS INDICATING GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY LATE FRI...WITH VERY DRY AIR POISED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA FRI WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY WEST OF I-77 INTO THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED POPS FROM THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT
STILL SOME SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE PRESENT.
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS FOR MON-TUE FROM THE ALLEGHANYS WESTWARD.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR OFFSETTING THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND
850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +12C BACK TOWARD +16C BY MON/TUE. STILL NO
SIGNS OF ANY APPRECIABLE HOT WEATHER. MORNING TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND OWING LARGELY TO THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME VERY PLEASANT MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
RADAR SHOWED SMALL...ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGH 12Z/8AM SO IT IS POSSIBLE A SHOWER COULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KBLF OR KLWB AIRPORT. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z/9AM THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT KLWB AND
KBLF ARE THE AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STORMS.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS THE
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES SUCH AS LWB/BCB/LYH. BEST COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND VFR CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED TAME EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE BASED CAPE MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1500 J/KG...
AND LACK OF A STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM. IN FACT...
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
VERTICALLY IN THE ZONE WARMER THAN -4C. THE ONLY REAL NOTICEABLE
MID-LEVEL DYNAMIC FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST
MN...SEEN BOTH IN WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS STRONGLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY PRODUCED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...AS RAIN AND OUTFLOW OCCUR...THE STORMS
DISSIPATE. NOW THAT WE ARE HEADING INTO THE NOCTURNAL COOLING
PERIOD AND NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP
KEEP CONVECTION GOING...ANTICIPATING THE COOLING TEMPERATURES TO
CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HRRR AS WELL AS THE
26.12Z PARALLEL RUNS OF THE HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TO JUST 20. ITS POSSIBLE A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY BUT HARD TO TELL
WHERE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIGHTNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING...HAVE ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID TUESDAY MORNING.
RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL A COUPLE DEGREES AS MOIST AIRMASS
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ALOFT HELP TO LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
AFTER A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...AIRMASS-LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN FORMING AROUND THE REGION NOW THAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SUBTLE LIFT IS IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GENERATING BULK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS OF 19Z BUT STILL EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO
THE EVENING. EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY OUT THERE...WIND SHEAR
NEXT TO NOTHING SO OUTSIDE OF SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
WITH UPPER LOW STILL PART OF BLOCKED FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONGER NORTHERN FLOW OVER RIDGE IS PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
CLOSER TO AREA...STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.
CONTINUE TO TRY AND EMPHASIZE HIGHER RAIN THREATS DURING HEATING
PERIODS AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE
AREA AND TIMING A BIT DIFFICULT WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURES TO FOCUS
ON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY GIVEN FRONT PLACEMENT SO
KEPT LIKELY CHANCES GOING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THERE HAS BEEN QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW FAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK FOR DAYS NOW. SIGNAL FOR A DRYING TREND
IS A BIT STRONGER AND FASTER VIA 26.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH REMNANTS OF FRONT SOUTH SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO BE LOWERED AND SHIFTED THAT DIRECTION BEFORE GOING ALL DRY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN THIS FLOW WITH MAINLY 80S FOR HIGHS.
NEXT WEEK FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. DRIVING A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PROCESS FOR TIMING DETAILS BUT BULK OF
RAIN COULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
FRONT CRASHES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER STORM THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST NEAR THE TAF SITES...RESULTING
FROM LINGERING INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION UNTIL 09Z IN CASE THESE IMPACT THE SITES. SO FAR THE
SITES HAVE AVOIDED RAINFALL...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT TO WHETHER OR
NOT BR WILL FORM THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED A VFR BR MENTION...
BUT SHOULD RAIN IMPACT A TAF SITE...VISIBILITIES IN THAT 09-14Z
WINDOW COULD DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH IFR. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN WI SHOULD HELP INITIATE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE 20-02Z TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR THE TAF SITES TO
EXPERIENCE THE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER REFINEMENT TO INCLUDE TSRA
AND SUB VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS
WITH A GOOD SIGNAL SOMETIME IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD FOR STORMS.
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER BEYOND 02Z BUT ANTICIPATING THE REST OF
THE EVENING TO SEE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1151 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER CARBON
COUNTY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ALBANY COUNTY AT
THIS HOUR. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDNIGHT...SO ADDED IN MENTION FOR SCT STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. NOT CONFIDENT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MAKE MUCH OF A SPLASH AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SINCE
IT WILL LOSE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CALM ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER 2 INCHES FROM CHEYENNE
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO
REGENERATE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE (MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG)
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE REGION OF BEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1200-1500
J/KG) SOUTHEAST OF A LARAMIE...TO SCOTTSBLUFF TO CHADRON LINE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF KIMBALL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO
BACK BUILD AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO TO START DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASED
INSTABILITY. 18Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z...BUT HANGS ON TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST COMING OUT OF THE CASPER AREA. PROBLEM
IS...HRRR HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH MID EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW...DEEP LAYERED DRYSLOT (AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO UTAH)
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WITH LOWER TO MAYBE
EVEN A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT PROCESS
ABOVE 9000 FT...AND WILL CAUSE RISES AND AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT
ON SOME RIVERS IN THE WEST (PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC
DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH PRECIP COVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PULL UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE THE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT WEST. ECMWF MOST BULLISH ON
QPF WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS RAINFALL MAINLY OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP GETS GOING. ECMWF HAS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA ALL THE
WAY UP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. GFS PWATS OVER RAWLINS
INCREASES FROM ROUGHLY .45 INCHES TO OVER .60 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL DIE OFF BY
07Z. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE DYING SHOWERS. VFR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. FUELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GREEN UP AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...GARMON
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER CARBON
COUNTY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ALBANY COUNTY AT
THIS HOUR. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDNIGHT...SO ADDED IN MENTION FOR SCT STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. NOT CONFIDENT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MAKE MUCH OF A SPLASH AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SINCE
IT WILL LOSE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CALM ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER 2 INCHES FROM CHEYENNE
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO
REGENERATE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE (MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG)
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE REGION OF BEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1200-1500
J/KG) SOUTHEAST OF A LARAMIE...TO SCOTTSBLUFF TO CHADRON LINE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF KIMBALL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO
BACK BUILD AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO TO START DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASED
INSTABILITY. 18Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z...BUT HANGS ON TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST COMING OUT OF THE CASPER AREA. PROBLEM
IS...HRRR HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH MID EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW...DEEP LAYERED DRYSLOT (AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO UTAH)
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WITH LOWER TO MAYBE
EVEN A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT PROCESS
ABOVE 9000 FT...AND WILL CAUSE RISES AND AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT
ON SOME RIVERS IN THE WEST (PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC
DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH PRECIP COVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PULL UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE THE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT WEST. ECMWF MOST BULLISH ON
QPF WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS RAINFALL MAINLY OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP GETS GOING. ECMWF HAS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA ALL THE
WAY UP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. GFS PWATS OVER RAWLINS
INCREASES FROM ROUGHLY .45 INCHES TO OVER .60 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH 07Z...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT VENTURES FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT KRWL
AFTER 17Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. FUELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GREEN UP AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...GARMON
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND A MID LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS SET UP CLOSE TO THE
REGION...WITH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
COUNTRY OF NEW YORK TOWARDS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA TODAY...SETTING
OFF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. THERE HAVE
BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S...CONVECTIVE CU CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
NOON-2 PM. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS MAINLY DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/SRN VT /CLOSER TO THE
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY/ AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EVENTUALLY SPILLING
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVENING...AS THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE JUST
WEST OF OUR AREA.
SPC HAS OUR AREA IN /SEE TEXT/ FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH FZL LEVEL/-20
DEGREE C HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT WILL TOUGH FOR MANY OF THE STORMS TO BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STILL...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM...AND THIS
WORDING WILL BE STRESSED IN THE GRIDS AND HWO STATEMENT.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE...BUT MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT BUT COLD
ADVECTION IS RATHER GRADUAL...SO LOWS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
BUT LOWER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE
TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FAST NW FLOW AT 500HPA...AS A
PARADE OF SHORT WVS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...EACH SHARPENING A
500HPA TROF OVER NEW ENG...WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS
IN THE UPR GRT PLAINS AND SHIFTS INTO THE GRTLKS. GENERALLY THE
MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 1ST CDFNT IS ALONG I-80 WED MRNG....AND SAGGING S AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FM MARITIMES INTO NE USA IN INCRG E-SE MARINE
LAYER FLOW. AT SAME TIME ONE SHORT WV IS MVNG THRU FCA IN NW FLOW.
RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WED...DCRNG IN AFTN...AND THE
THREAT OF SCT -SHRA IN THE MRNG. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY FM
MON/TUES AS FCA IS IN MARITIME FLOW OFF GULF OF MAINE.
WED NT/THU 500HPA FLOW IS NW...WE TAKE A BREAK FM SHORT WV PARADE
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENG AND NY WITH GENERALLY FAIR...DRY
AND SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. MINS WED NT WILL BE IN THE
40S...HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
THU NT A STRONG 500 HPA SHORT WV DIVES FM OTTAWA VLY INTO THE
NE...AS ITS CDFNT REACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY FRI MRNG. THESE
SYSTEMS TRANSIT FCA FRI AND FR NT WITH INCR THREAT OF -SHRA/SCT
TSTMS LATE THU N...AND ACROSS FCA FRI AND FRI NT WHEN 500HPA
TEMPS FALL TO -20C...AND A STRONG DIURNAL ASPECT AS ALMOST SUMMER
SOLSTICE SUN DURING THE DAY FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLOW
NORMAL TO END THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A
SHARP 500HPA TROF JUST OFF THE US EAST COAST...AND A SHARP OR
CLOSED 590 HPA HIGH OVER GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...WITH FCA BWTN THESE
SYSTEMS SAT...AND A GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TO END THE EFP.
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS...MARINE LAYER AIR AND
POSSIBLY A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL IMPACT THE FCA. THE ECMWF/HPC/GFS/GEM
TEND TO KEEP BULK OF THE TROF AND ITS SENSIBLE WX...CLOUDS OFFSHORE
EXCPT THOSE ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF 500HPA SHORT WV SAT...WHICH
RESULTS IN CHC -SHRA SAT OVER W NEW ENG AND MORE CLOUDS SAT. ALL
GUID HAS FAIR AND WARMING CONDS SUN/MON AS 500HPA RIDGE DOMINATES.
SO WHILE ALL GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ITS NOT EXACTLY A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FCST AS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILE SHIFT COULD RESULT IN
DAMP...COOL AND DISMAL CONDS PARTICULARLY FM HUD VLY E. AND A
SHIFT FURTHER EAST COULD RESULT IN A DRY AND WARMER FCST. FOR
NOW WILL POP EFP WITH OVERNIGHT HPC GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS THAT ARE TENDING TO DRY UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER ABOUT 14Z-15Z. STILL...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
INDICATING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AFTER 18Z-
21Z. IN ADDITION...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED -TSRA AROUND THE REGION...BUT WILL
KEEP VSBYS/CIGS ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.
THE FRONT TRACKS TRACKS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE NIGHT AFTER
00Z AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SOLIDLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH 04Z AND BEYOND...AND MAY APPROACH IFR LATE TONIGHT...BUT
AGAIN...SOME UNCERTAINTIES SO LATER FORECASTS MAY INDICATE SOME IFR.
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KT TODAY..SHIFTING TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 6 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...TRIGGERING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES
HIGH WITH RH 45 TO 55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT 50 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH QPF...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA AND
THEN START TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEATURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SHOULD VARY FROM TRANSPARENT TO OPAQUE.
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD
BRING DEW POINT READINGS INTO THE 60S THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, THE STRONG LATE
MAY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPERATURE TO SOAR INTO THE 80S
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY REACH 90.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME CUMULUS BY MIDDAY AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
IMPULSES TRAVELING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1.75 INCH NEIGHBORHOOD FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 1000
TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME RATHER ROBUST.
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FCST, AS WE WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOP. LATEST HRRR REALLY DESN`T GET MUCH GOING
UNTIL 17-18Z WITH A BIG INCREASE IN THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME.
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM, LOWERED POPS JUST A TAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND AS WE GRADUALLY LOSE THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE. WE ARE EXPECTING
A CLOUDY SKY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.
THE APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE INTO THE NEW
YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 0600 UTC. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM AROUND THE POCONOS, ACROSS BUCKS COUNTY TO
LONG BEACH ISLAND AROUND 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE WIND SHOULD BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF FEATURING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS FRONT WILL COOL US DOWN AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
70S, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL PUSH
TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE SHOWERS
SHOULD END PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE DELMARVA.
THE HIGH WILL START TO TAKE HOLD AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY. A DRY BUT CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH MOST AREAS STRUGGLING TO
EVEN REACH 70 DEGREES.
FRIDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND THROUGH OUR
AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. BETTER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS FRONT DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ALL
THAT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO WE CONTINUE TO MENTION
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BUT STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE WIND MAY BEGIN TO GUST NEAR 16 OR 18 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF
THE TIME OUR TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY, THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOWERING CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES BRIEFLY TO MVFR OR IFR. ALSO, THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS.
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
A FEW SITES MAY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DROPPING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY IN ITS WAKE AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH KABE AND KTTN AROUND 1000Z OR 1100Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY TOWARD KACY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A RETURN TO VFR
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GUSTIER ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO VEER TOWARD THE WEST
FOR TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF
BARNEGAT INLET BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 OR 3
FEET FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS START TO PICK UP IN THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND WILL START TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE LATE. IN ADDITION, SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET
THROUGH THURSDAY, FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ431-453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE
12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WERE ONLY AROUND 6 C/KM...WHICH IS NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
PWATS UP AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THERE WAS A SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF HAIL FROM
THE HWO. THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO ONLY LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND...MAINLY FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND WESTWARD. BUMPED UP POPS TO THE 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST TO COLLIDE. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE WIND L/V EARLY
AND SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16-18Z. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BUT WILL BE MOSTLY INLAND FROM THE KAPF TERMINAL.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING AN EASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGING IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND A GENERAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...AS WITH MOST CONVECTION THIS
TIME OF YEAR...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST DUE TO THE WEAKER PENETRATION OF THE GULF
BREEZE AND PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS.
EASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME
A STRONG H5 LOW WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BE RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
AND SHOULD HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SEA AND GULF BREEZES
WILL KICK IN ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE SITE THAT COULD BE THE EXCEPTION
IS KAPF, IF THERE ARE ANY IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH EAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET OR
LESS. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 78 86 77 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 87 76 86 76 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 91 72 89 72 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
958 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
ATLANTIC SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WHILE CENTER
SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY AND THEREFORE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER INLAND MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM SOON AFTER NOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SEA BREEZE...MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED WEST
OF I-4 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY STILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. SMALL HAIL LOOKS LESS
LIKELY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT BUT STILL NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. ALSO...VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD
TO SLOW AND VARIABLE STORM MOTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
FEW SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
MID- UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL INTI ALLY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD LAKE COUNTY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS MAINLY WEST OF I-95. WILL CONTINUE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR
INTERIOR SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) FAVORABLE CONDS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH A SWELL COMPONENT NR 11-12SEC AT COASTAL SITES ADDING ABOUT 1
TO 2 FT TO SIG WAVE HGHTS. RIDGE SINKING S CLOSER TO THE AREA
SHOULD REDUCE WINDS OVER THE OPEN AND OUTER WATERS WITH ECSB WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AT EARLY TO MID AFTN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/SPRATT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1047 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Not much of a shift overall from yesterday. Storm system brewing
over the Southern Plains and warm humid air surging into the FA
this morning. Broken mid/high clouds out there, but still expecting the
development of a cu field as well. Diurnally driven showers and
thunder this afternoon likely, though coverage will be in the
scattered range. Have reduced pops overall to slightly better
reflect the similarity to yesterday. Going forecast is doing well
for the afternoon as far as temperatures into the 80s but a couple
degrees cooler than yesterday with a little more in the way of
cloud cover. Updates out momentarily.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
VFR conditions expected into tonight with the possibility of some
MVFR vsbys in fog. Any convection that affects a TAF site this
afternoon or early this evening will be capable of bringing cigs
and vsbys down to MVFR for a brief time, but coverage expected
to be too limited once again so will continue with VCTS at or
just aftr 20z. Forecast soundings suggest cumulus to form aftr
15z with bases in the 4000-5000 foot range before dissipating
aftr 23z. Overnight, we may see some MVFR vsbys in fog/hz develop
aftr 09z, especially at any location that receives rainfall
today or this evening.
Surface winds will continue from a southwest direction today at
10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. A cold
front will shift south into our far northern areas late tonight
but it appears the boundary will stay just north of our TAF sites.
Winds overnight will be from a southwest to west direction at 5 to
10 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Weak surface low centered just east of Minneapolis early this
morning, with a boundary extending southwest into north central
Iowa. Earlier showers/storms in southwest Illinois, associated
with a weak trough around 925 mb, have largely faded with just
some sprinkles perhaps in the far southwest CWA west of
Jacksonville. Persistent large upper low evident on water vapor
imagery continues to make slow progress east-southeast, and was
centered over the Texas panhandle, with a broad trough extending
northward through the Plains.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:
Still not much change in the weather pattern during this part of
the forecast. Main concern will be with diurnal showers and
storms. While the upper low will not directly impact us, it still
will have a bit of influence with a shortwave in the northern
stream, which will slip a backdoor cold front through the forecast
area on Wednesday. This front will bring slightly cooler
temperatures by mid week, namely lower 80s vs mid/upper 80s.
Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late morning, becoming more numerous in the
afternoon before dying off in the evening. Instability expected to
be rather modest, with the NAM and RAP keeping CAPE`s over most of
the forecast area below 1000 J/kg, so severe weather is of little
concern. However, precipitable water values around 1.6 inches
would favor some heavier downpours, but the scattered nature of
the storms will result in widely varying precipitation amounts.
Somewhat better rain chances expected on Wednesday as the front
arrives and provides some better forcing, and have increased
PoP`s to around 60% across the central third of the CWA. For
Thursday, the evening model runs have started a trend of shifting
the rain chances a bit further south due to the movement of the
front. Have reduced rain chances to around 20% northwest of the
Illinois River as a result, but continued the mention of scattered
storms elsewhere.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:
Upper ridge will be drifting through the Mississippi Valley late
in the week, flattening out early next week. Our next rain chances
will be focused on a shortwave that will ride along the top of
what`s left of the ridge late in the weekend. Main rain chances
with this feature look to be Sunday afternoon and evening. The
model solutions then begin to diverge early next week, with the
ECMWF wetter, but its solution has also shifted its rain/frontal
boundary quite a bit further north than the last run. Still looks
to be scattered storms in the general area on Monday with either
this solution or the GFS solution.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
334 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION TRENDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
SHARP COOLING AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TEMPS COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH MAINLY COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP DEPICTS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI TO NEAR THE SOO. ALOFT...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRIFT ALONG THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHILE A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS
NOTED OVER MN/IA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FASTER FLOW ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING NOTED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH MODEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECTATION IS THAT DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
CONCUR...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THEN EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
AND NORTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED OF THE WEAK FRONT...
WITH A PREFERENCE FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS/LOCAL WRF SOLUTIONS WHICH
SLIDE FRONT DOWN THE ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING QUICK COOLING (NEAR 80 DROPPING INTO 60S) TO THE NORTH SHORE
AND ADJACENT AREAS BEFORE EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME FOG DUE TO COOL
LAKE AND HUMID AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND
500 J/KG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THUS NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.50" PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SUNSET...AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DECREASES.
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
NORTH...AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY...READINGS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE THEN
DEVELOPS AND BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY DOWNSTREAM OF
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES WILL KEEP LAKE COOLING IN PLAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE TEMPS OTHERWISE MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S FARTHER
INLAND BENEATH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. EFFECT OF LAKE COOLING WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHEAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE PROPAGATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER THAN GFS AND
GEFS MEMBERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE...AND IN BRINGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH SUPPORT OF GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY
AND SHOW FAIRLY MINIMAL SPREAD. THUS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW IN
PICKING EITHER EXTREME IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AT THIS DISTANCE...AND
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY REPRESENT A BLEND TOWARD THE GEFS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE THIS EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG THIS THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH
LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE TODAY...CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AT ANY TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES
APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE DOWN THE LAKE WITH AN
ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE THE WINDS
TURN NORTHEASTERLY...BUT THEN THE CONCERN WILL TURN TO LOWER VSBY
AND CIGS. DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY SPILL
INLAND AS THE WINDS TURN LATER TODAY...LIFTING TO AN IFR OR LOWER
MVFR DECK AS IT REACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT WITH CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR CIGS IN
THE MEANTIME.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. PRIMARILY NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...SLT CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING THE SOUTH END
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL STABLE WATERS OF THE
LAKE RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ONCE
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE FOG AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE SHUNTED BACK INTO THE
IL/IN NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK AND REMAINS SITUATED
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO TURN A
LAKE BREEZE RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Weak surface low centered just east of Minneapolis early this
morning, with a boundary extending southwest into north central
Iowa. Earlier showers/storms in southwest Illinois, associated
with a weak trough around 925 mb, have largely faded with just
some sprinkles perhaps in the far southwest CWA west of
Jacksonville. Persistent large upper low evident on water vapor
imagery continues to make slow progress east-southeast, and was
centered over the Texas panhandle, with a broad trough extending
northward through the Plains.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:
Still not much change in the weather pattern during this part of
the forecast. Main concern will be with diurnal showers and
storms. While the upper low will not directly impact us, it still
will have a bit of influence with a shortwave in the northern
stream, which will slip a backdoor cold front through the forecast
area on Wednesday. This front will bring slightly cooler
temperatures by mid week, namely lower 80s vs mid/upper 80s.
Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late morning, becoming more numerous in the
afternoon before dying off in the evening. Instability expected to
be rather modest, with the NAM and RAP keeping CAPE`s over most of
the forecast area below 1000 J/kg, so severe weather is of little
concern. However, precipitable water values around 1.6 inches
would favor some heavier downpours, but the scattered nature of
the storms will result in widely varying precipitation amounts.
Somewhat better rain chances expected on Wednesday as the front
arrives and provides some better forcing, and have increased
PoP`s to around 60% across the central third of the CWA. For
Thursday, the evening model runs have started a trend of shifting
the rain chances a bit further south due to the movement of the
front. Have reduced rain chances to around 20% northwest of the
Illinois River as a result, but continued the mention of scattered
storms elsewhere.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:
Upper ridge will be drifting through the Mississippi Valley late
in the week, flattening out early next week. Our next rain chances
will be focused on a shortwave that will ride along the top of
what`s left of the ridge late in the weekend. Main rain chances
with this feature look to be Sunday afternoon and evening. The
model solutions then begin to diverge early next week, with the
ECMWF wetter, but its solution has also shifted its rain/frontal
boundary quite a bit further north than the last run. Still looks
to be scattered storms in the general area on Monday with either
this solution or the GFS solution.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
VFR conditions expected into tonight with the possibility of some
MVFR vsbys in fog. Any convection that affects a TAF site this
afternoon or early this evening will be capable of bringing cigs
and vsbys down to MVFR for a brief time, but coverage expected
to be too limited once again so will continue with VCTS at or
just aftr 20z. Forecast soundings suggest cumulus to form aftr
15z with bases in the 4000-5000 foot range before dissipating
aftr 23z. Overnight, we may see some MVFR vsbys in fog/hz develop
aftr 09z, especially at any location that receives rainfall
today or this evening.
Surface winds will continue from a southwest direction today at
10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. A cold
front will shift south into our far northern areas late tonight
but it appears the boundary will stay just north of our TAF sites.
Winds overnight will be from a southwest to west direction at 5 to
10 kts.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
816 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD
RECENT HRRR AND NAM RUNS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE WESTERLIES ARE DISPLACE FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST GENERALLY EAST NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER...BEFORE
DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. LYING GENERALLY JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE WESTERLIES WAS A BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MARITIMES TO ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND THEN
WEST SOUTHEAST FROM THAT LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH WED...THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND DAMPEN WHILE DISTURBANCES IN THE
WESTERLIES LEAD TO A GRADUAL LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...THE SFC LOW INITIALLY
OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
DAWN ON WED. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH
THE RAP IS HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION A BIT BETTER THAN THE
HRRR. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR POINT TOWARD THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA OR DEVELOPING IN THAT
AREA PRIOR TO DAWN AND LINGERING A BIT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE
HRRR AND SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 0Z NAM HAD SOME
CONVECTION FROM THE LOZ AND SME AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SO FAR
HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS REGION...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAWN. THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE BIG SANDY REGION
AND PARTS OF THE VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AND WENT WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WORK AROUND THE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AFFECT THE OH VALLEY REGION
AROUND PEAK HEATING. ONCE GAIN TONIGHT...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER.
A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY ON WED IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. MODELS HAVE SOME HEIGHT
RISES BACK INTO EAST TN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY ON
WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND BACK
IN THAT DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA IS THE LOWEST FOR WED. SOME OF THAT
AREA COULD EXPERIENCE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION RATHER THAN LIKELY
COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD FOR LATE MAY...ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON
AVERAGE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE HIGHER ON AVERAGE ON WED...AND HOLD
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR TONIGHT OR IF
WERE TO REMAIN GENERALLY FREE OF CONVECTION...TUE NIGHT...VALLEY FOG
COULD BECOME A CONCERN AND TEMPS MIGHT DISPLAY MORE OF A MODERATE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH
SIMILAR DETAILS REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...AND TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION. THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO START OUT WITH
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY
DISPLACE THE RIDGE TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND WOULD BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SHOULD THE MODELS TURN OUT TO BE
CORRECT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS AND LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS REPEATED INVASIONS OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRY THINGS OUT. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU. INITIAL
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE 13Z TO 14Z
PERIOD. THEN...A LULL SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 16Z- 17Z...WHEN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED. FROM ABOUT 22Z ON...COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH SOME LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 6Z IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR OTHER THAN IFR OR MVFR IN HEAVIER SHRA AND TSRA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG DOMINATING
THE NCENTRAL CONUS/CENTRAL CANADA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CNDN MARITIMES AND N OF CLOSED LO DRIFTING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. SFC
HI PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...AND A N WIND
ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN
ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD
FROPA A BIT FASTER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY. WITH A NNE WIND CLOSE TO 15 MPH AT HOUGHTON...THE SFC
DEWPT FELL FM 56 AT 27/00Z TO 45 AT 27/05Z. THE 05Z SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSION WAS 14 DEGREES THERE. N WIND UP TO 24 KTS REPORTED AT
STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUSE HAS ENHANCED THIS LLVL DRYING TREND. THERE
WAS SOME FOG ON LK SUP EARLIER...BUT RECENT SHIP OBS/STLT IMAGERY
INDICATE PATCHY FOG LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF ONLY ERN LK SUP. THE
LLVL DRYING HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DVLP OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...AND
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG HAVE FORMED IN THESE AREAS. A NEARLY STNRY LINE
OF SHOWERS/SOME TS LINGERS FM SCENTRAL MN ACROSS NCENTRAL WI TO LK
MI JUST S OF MENOMINEE TO THE S OF THE SFC COLD FNT WHERE THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING W TO E THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE IMPACT OF CURRENT LLVL
DRYING TRENDS AND WHETHER ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN WI WL IMPACT THE SRN
COUNTIES TODAY.
TODAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN INVIGORATING AREA OF SHOWERS TO
THE S OF UPR MI IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU THE DAY AND
WEAKEN UNDER SLOW H5 RISES AS THE UPR RDG SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
CWA. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO FADE AWAY BY 18Z
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SHRTWV AND CONTINUED DRY ADVCTN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THE HI PRES IN ONTARIO FCST TO BUILD INTO NCENTRAL LK
SUP THIS AFTN. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND THE STRONGER DRY ADVCTN
NOTED ABOVE...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE DRIER MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNED
TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND REMOVE POPS FM ALL BUT MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MRNG. IF THERE ARE ANY LO CLDS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA WHERE THE
LLVL DRYING HAS SO FAR BEEN MORE MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD DSPT WITH
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF BLDG HI PRES/DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
APRCHG 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL FARTHER FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUP. TEMPS NEAR THE BIG LK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S. DEEP MIXING OFF
THE DRIER GFS SDNGS WOULD INDICATE SFC DEWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE
TEENS TODAY. GIVEN THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...35 TO 45 FOR THE DEWPTS
SEEMS MORE RSNBL...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT
BY LATE AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
TNGT...POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH H85-5 MEAN RH FALLING AS LO AS 20 PCT. PWAT FCST 0.33-0.50 INCH
WL BE 50-75 PCT OF NORMAL. WITH LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM 12Z WED
THROUGH MOST OF SAT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA WED INTO SAT AS SFC RIDGING
REMAINS MOSTLY DOMINANT OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH ON WED AND THU WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY OF 10-14C. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND...WITH
COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NERN
CWA ON FRI...WHICH MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NERN CWA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CWA...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMER THERE THAN ON WED-THU. THINK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND IN THE LOW 80S INTERIOR W ARE REASONABLE...WITH
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL
SETUP IS AS FOLLOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO E OF THE CWA ON
SAT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NRN HUDSON BAY. THE SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO MN BY 00Z SUN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SLY FLOW.
850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO INCREASE TO 17C BY 00Z SUN. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W ARE CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SAT. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
ON THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY UP THE FRONT AND STALLS IT OVER THE CWA INTO MON. SUN AND MON
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS IN THIS
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH CHANCE
POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY NNE
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF HI PRES BLDG FM ONTARIO TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
PCPN-FREE... BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
COMPACT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND BEST DEPICTED BY THE 400-300 MB PV FROM THE RAP
AND NAM. PCPN IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PV
ANOMALY... COINCIDENT WITH THE GRADIENT OF A COMPACT 300 MB JET IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 KT. THE FEATURE IS ALSO LENDING ITSELF TO
SOME MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION... WHICH IS HELPING THINGS OUT BY
PROVIDING A BIT OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE
WORKING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A SHIELD OF PATCHY PCPN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER
THE AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC SFCOA RUNNING AROUND
250-500 J/KG. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHT... THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS
ARE EVEN SHOWING A HINT OF LARGE SCALE QG FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE... AND MANAGE TO WRING OUT SOME QG-FORCED PCPN THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NEARING ITS NORTHERN MOST REACH... AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS OUT
A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER... AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AND WARMING ONCE
AGAIN... WHICH WILL HELP BUMP UP INSTABILITY... AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WHEREVER WE HAVE LINGERING FORCING
FROM THIS LARGER SCALE FEATURE OR LOCALIZED WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OVERALL... THE
IMPACT OF EACH OF THOSE THINGS SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY... SO WILL START TO SHIFT POPS SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING... WHILE ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
HAVE SOME CONCERN WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS ONCE AGAIN... BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF
THE MIX FOR NOW WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE CAMS THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS ALSO INDICATE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM OUR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING... WHICH WOULD HELP MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL OF
ANYTHING UPSTREAM WORKING INTO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN... SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN IN OUR AREA GIVEN A LACK OF
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
CERTAINLY BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN WITH SLOWLY MOVING STORMS AND
REMAINING MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... COULD SEE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD UPDRAFTS COLLOCATE THEMSELVES WITH
THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THEY DID YESTERDAY... AND MANAGE
TO STRETCH THE BACKGROUND SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG IT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SOUTH AND
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA... WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE MOST POTENT UPDRAFTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL DRYING TREND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND.
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE DRIVEN WEST AS SURFACE HIGH DROPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME MINOR COOLING...MAINLY
TO THE EAST INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
THROUGH 80S ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WITH TIME. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDER INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WORKS TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
WITH ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF REMNANTS
OF DAKOTAS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SMALL POP IN THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE DECENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL PLUME
MOISTURE ADDED TO THE MIX AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT WELL INTO OUR CWA BY
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRIVING IT SOUTH TO AT LEAST THE MN/IA
BORDER BY THAT TIME. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN STORE... PARTICULARLY
FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY... AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. HOWEVER... BEST
INDICATIONS FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION OF
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTION WITH THAT REJUVENATION WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER... EVEN IF THE FORECAST
SITES MISS OUT ON LATER CONVECTION... THEY FIRST NEED TO DEAL WITH
THE AREA OF PCPN CURRENTLY ROTATING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THIS
PCPN IS BEING FORCED BY A MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES... WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRAG ITS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE/LL NEED TO DEAL WITH ITS PCPN AND
ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
HUGE RANGE IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST... WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TONIGHT. FORECASTS ARE BASED TO A LARGE DEGREE ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS THEN TRENDING TOWARD THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS. DON/T
HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE SHORT TERM IN EXPLICITLY
INCLUDING PCPN OR OVERLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THINGS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY
FOR A TIME TODAY.
KMSP...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL... WITH RESPECT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. ONCE THE CURRENT BATCH OF
PCPN WORKS OUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT IT/S
POSSIBLE WE COULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS WORSE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERALL... THINGS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
AND ADJUSTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON TRENDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF PCPN... OTHERWISE VFR. EAST WIND LESS THAN 5 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KT INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN 10 TO 20 KT FRIDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. 27.12Z KLBF SOUNDING SHOWED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH THE DAY. SO EXPECTING TO GET CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON UPON REACHING
SURFACE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MOISTURE WON/T BE GREAT THOUGH SO
THINKING COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND HAVE THE
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
NORTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE. STEERING
FLOW IS LIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MINIMAL SO EXPECTING
GENERALLY SLOW MOVING GARDEN VARIETY TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GOOD MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CAPE MODEST. K INDICES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 35C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE
WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT STORM MOTION WOULD BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AS
INDICATED IN THE NAM AND GFS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT NOT ON A GROSS SCALE AS OFTEN OCCURS IN JULY AND AUGUST
WHEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.
THE TSTMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF
MONDAYS DEVELOPMENT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED THEDFORD SOUTH
AND EAST THRU CUSTER COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH. THE RUC INDICATED
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS AFTN ALSO WHICH APPEARS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY PROBLEM
WITH THE FORECAST IS H700MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHICH
COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL POPS WERE TIME
SHIFTED 3 HOURS FORWARD AS IT APPEARED STORMS WOULD DEVELOP FROM
21Z-03Z AND COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SLIGHT WARMING AT H700MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MIXING HEIGHT MONDAY AFTN AT KLBF WAS 715 MB AND 750 MB AT KUNR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WARM...SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES HEADLINE
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION INITIALLY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK...WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHOWING
SIGNS OF A BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH/ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AS A 587DM
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WELL INTO THE
80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY...PLACING THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
STILL WITHIN THE REGION...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-40% POPS ACROSS OUR
WEST /GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61/ AS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE WEEKEND...A NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND
LOCATIONAL DIFFERENCES OF ANY PROJECTED BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THESE
STORMS...SO ATTM WON/T VENTURE AWAY FROM THE ALLBLEND PROCEDURE
WHICH RESPONDED WITH 40% POPS AND LESS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
UNTIL SUNDAY...SO SVR CHANCES ARE LOW INITIALLY...BUT MAY INCREASE
LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR MOST PLACES. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING OMEGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A PIECE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY....BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT 21Z-
03Z TODAY ACROSS TWO MAIN AREAS. 1...ACROSS THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE
NORTH OF I-80 AND 2...EAST OF KTIF THROUGH KBBW-KONL. STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND 03Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
608 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GOOD MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CAPE MODEST. K INDICES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 35C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE
WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT STORM MOTION WOULD BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AS
INDICATED IN THE NAM AND GFS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT NOT ON A GROSS SCALE AS OFTEN OCCURS IN JULY AND AUGUST
WHEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.
THE TSTMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF
MONDAYS DEVELOPMENT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED THEDFORD SOUTH
AND EAST THRU CUSTER COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH. THE RUC INDICATED
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS AFTN ALSO WHICH APPEARS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY PROBLEM
WITH THE FORECAST IS H700MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHICH
COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL POPS WERE TIME
SHIFTED 3 HOURS FORWARD AS IT APPEARED STORMS WOULD DEVELOP FROM
21Z-03Z AND COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SLIGHT WARMING AT H700MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MIXING HEIGHT MONDAY AFTN AT KLBF WAS 715 MB AND 750 MB AT KUNR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WARM...SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES HEADLINE
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION INITIALLY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK...WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHOWING
SIGNS OF A BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH/ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AS A 587DM
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WELL INTO THE
80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY...PLACING THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
STILL WITHIN THE REGION...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-40% POPS ACROSS OUR
WEST /GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61/ AS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE WEEKEND...A NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND
LOCATIONAL DIFFERENCES OF ANY PROJECTED BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THESE
STORMS...SO ATTM WON/T VENTURE AWAY FROM THE ALLBLEND PROCEDURE
WHICH RESPONDED WITH 40% POPS AND LESS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
UNTIL SUNDAY...SO SVR CHANCES ARE LOW INITIALLY...BUT MAY INCREASE
LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR MOST PLACES. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING OMEGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A PIECE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY....BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT 21Z-
03Z TODAY ACROSS TWO MAIN AREAS. 1...ACROSS THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE
NORTH OF I-80 AND 2...EAST OF KTIF THROUGH KBBW-KONL. STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND 03Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1044 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NY STATE, AND KEEP OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY,
BEFORE A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1041 AM UPDATE...
REORGANIZED POP GRIDS TODAY TO FOCUS LIKELY POPS MAINLY ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTHWARD, WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST TODAY. TAPERED OFF TO CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH.
CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW FLOW WIND
FIELD, SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT. MORE INTERESTING IS
THE 1.50+ PWAT. GIVEN MBE VELOCITIES OF 4 TO 8 KTS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME TRAINING. PEAK TIME FOR
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
640 AM UPDATE...
RISING DWPTS AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
MUCH AT ALL THIS MRNG ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LKS WITH SYR
STILL UP ARND 70F. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS COURTESY OF A SUBTLE
S/WV IN NW FLOW ARE HEADING TWD ALBANY AT THIS TIME BUT HAD TO
EXPAND 20 POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCNT FOR THESE THIS MRNG.
EXPECT A MORE PROMINENT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AFT 17Z IN
INCRSGLY MOIST FLOW AHD OF SLOW-MVG CLD FRONT.
PREV DISCO BLO...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE RELUCTANT TO MIX
OUT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING STABLE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE FROM
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER...BUT
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER PROMPTED ME TO SCALE BACK
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE...INTO MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN. POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS
MAY EVEN BE STUCK IN THE LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
DIVIDING THE COASTAL HIGH...FROM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
HUDSON BAY...WILL BE A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE CENTERED LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE
POPS AROUND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...COMPELLED ME TO
ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER...FAIR SKIES...AND AT LEAST
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TIME. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS ENTERS THE
PICTURE. ECMWF IS FASTER TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS RIDGING YET
ALSO ALLOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION WITH TIME
WITH MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY BUT WITH SOME BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL
WNW TO ESE ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR
KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP. AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS
FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPING SCT TSRA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30
TSRA GROUPS INTO A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME LESS CONFIDENCE IN
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM OF THUNDER SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS IN FAVOR ON NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE IF NECESSARY. TONIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...IFR CIG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO...AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL TODAY MAY
DEVELOP FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT FROM LEFTOVER
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
704 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM UPDATE...
RISING DWPTS AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
MUCH AT ALL THIS MRNG ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LKS WITH SYR
STILL UP ARND 70F. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS COURTESY OF A SUBTLE
S/WV IN NW FLOW ARE HEADING TWD ALBANY AT THIS TIME BUT HAD TO
EXPAND 20 POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCNT FOR THESE THIS MRNG.
EXPECT A MORE PROMINENT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AFT 17Z IN
INCRSGLY MOIST FLOW AHD OF SLOW-MVG CLD FRONT.
PREV DISCO BLO...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE RELUCTANT TO MIX
OUT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING STABLE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE FROM
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER...BUT
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER PROMPTED ME TO SCALE BACK
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE...INTO MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN. POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS
MAY EVEN BE STUCK IN THE LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
DIVIDING THE COASTAL HIGH...FROM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
HUDSON BAY...WILL BE A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE CENTERED LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE
POPS AROUND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...COMPELLED ME TO
ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER...FAIR SKIES...AND AT LEAST
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TIME. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS ENTERS THE
PICTURE. ECMWF IS FASTER TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS RIDGING YET
ALSO ALLOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION WITH TIME
WITH MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY BUT WITH SOME BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL
WNW TO ESE ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR
KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP. AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS
FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPING SCT TSRA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30
TSRA GROUPS INTO A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME LESS CONFIDENCE IN
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM OF THUNDER SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS IN FAVOR ON NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE IF NECESSARY. TONIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...IFR CIG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO...AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL TODAY MAY
DEVELOP FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT FROM LEFTOVER
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM UPDATE...
RISING DWPTS AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
MUCH AT ALL THIS MRNG ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LKS WITH SYR
STILL UP ARND 70F. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS COURTESY OF A SUBTLE
S/WV IN NW FLOW ARE HEADING TWD ALBANY AT THIS TIME BUT HAD TO
EXPAND 20 POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCNT FOR THESE THIS MRNG.
EXPECT A MORE PROMINENT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AFT 17Z IN
INCRSGLY MOIST FLOW AHD OF SLOW-MVG CLD FRONT.
PREV DISCO BLO...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE RELUCTANT TO MIX
OUT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING STABLE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE FROM
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER...BUT
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER PROMPTED ME TO SCALE BACK
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE...INTO MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN. POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS
MAY EVEN BE STUCK IN THE LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
DIVIDING THE COASTAL HIGH...FROM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
HUDSON BAY...WILL BE A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE CENTERED LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE
POPS AROUND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...COMPELLED ME TO
ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER...FAIR SKIES...AND AT LEAST
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
TIME. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS ENTERS THE
PICTURE. ECMWF IS FASTER TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS RIDGING YET
ALSO ALLOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION WITH TIME
WITH MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL WNW TO ESE ALOFT.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP.
AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS FOR EXPECTED
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30 TSRA GROUPS INTO
A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME PROB30 GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM
OF THUNDER. TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND/OR SCT
SHRA-TSRA CONTINUES ALONG IT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH MAY GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA RAIN FREE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY
AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING INTERSTATE
95 HAS BEEN EARLIER PRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
AS THIS DISTURBANCE MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY LATE
MORNING MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE SMALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE-BASED CAPE INCREASES TO 1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING`S WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
AFTERNOON...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG THE PIEDMONT/
SANDHILLS INTERFACE PLUS THE SEABREEZE COULD INITIATE NEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS...WITH THE HRRR AND RUC IN THE
MIDDLE. MY FORECAST POPS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT A LITTLE LOWER
IN THE WILMINGTON AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT
AROUND 90 IN THE DARLINGTON-BENNETTSVILLE AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT THAN WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY FINDS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN POKED UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE RIDGE
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO CAP OFF ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION BUT COVERAGE MAY BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM COMPARED TO OTHER
DAYS OF THE FCST. PIEDMONT TROUGH TO OUR WEST MORE A FOCUS ACCORDING
TO WRF WHEREAS GFS SEEMS TO LIKE GFS BETTER. GIVEN THAT STORM
MOTION WILL HAVE A GOOD EASTERLY COMPONENT FEEL THAT THE MOS POPS
GENERALLY AROUND 40 WILL SUFFICE AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SO PICKING
OUT FAVORED AREAS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED/LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
SINCE PLACES SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE TO ITS NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH POSITION OF BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO TELL THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS OVER NRN ZONES. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHIFT OF EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY MAY BE DRY FOR ALL BUT
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. THIS SETUP LASTS INTO SUNDAY...GENERALLY
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A RETURN OF TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IF NOT A TAD HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ABOUT 1.3
INCHES TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
EARLY...BUT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 20Z. INLAND TERMINALS WILL HAVE CONVECTION ON OR
NEARBY THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING DIURNALLY BY
02Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS A
COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE TODAY. A
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL HELP COMPRESS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING 15 KNOTS. ADD TO
THAT THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WE COULD SEE WINDS NEARSHORE
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE MOS GUIDANCE BASED OFF THE 00Z GFS EVEN HAS 24 KNOTS AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE 06Z GFS HAS
INCREASED THAT TO 26 KNOTS! WHILE MY FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT
STRONG... IT STILL SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS UP AT CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE FROM THE WEST PUSHING ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS EASTWARD. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD
BUILD TO 3-4 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A BIT OF A PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. MORE ACCURATE TO SAY THAT SW WINDS THE RESULT OF PIEDMONT
TROUGH SINCE THE ACTUAL BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. IT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY HOWEVER AND BE QUITE SLOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL TEND TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEN A N TO NE FLOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL ZONES MAY END UP BISECTED NORTH TO
SOUTH BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL THUS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AND AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN. SEAS
THUS REMAIN QUITE TAME...GENERALLY JUST 2 FT OR LESS. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MANAGES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. A NE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO THE DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS BUT NO ADVISORY OR EVEN HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH MAY GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE AREA RAIN FREE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY
AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 HAS BEEN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MAKES IT WAY
EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SMALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE-BASED CAPE INCREASES TO 1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING`S WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
AFTERNOON...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG THE PIEDMONT/
SANDHILLS INTERFACE PLUS THE SEABREEZE COULD INITIATE NEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS...WITH THE HRRR AND RUC IN THE
MIDDLE. MY FORECAST POPS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT A LITTLE LOWER
IN THE WILMINGTON AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT
AROUND 90 IN THE DARLINGTON-BENNETTSVILLE AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT THAN WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY FINDS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN POKED UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE RIDGE
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO CAP OFF ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION BUT COVERAGE MAY BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM COMPARED TO OTHER
DAYS OF THE FCST. PIEDMONT TROUGH TO OUR WEST MORE A FOCUS ACCORDING
TO WRF WHEREAS GFS SEEMS TO LIKE GFS BETTER. GIVEN THAT STORM
MOTION WILL HAVE A GOOD EASTERLY COMPONENT FEEL THAT THE MOS POPS
GENERALLY AROUND 40 WILL SUFFICE AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SO PICKING
OUT FAVORED AREAS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED/LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
SINCE PLACES SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE TO ITS NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH POSITION OF BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO TELL THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS OVER NRN ZONES. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHIFT OF EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY MAY BE DRY FOR ALL BUT
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. THIS SETUP LASTS INTO SUNDAY...GENERALLY
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A RETURN OF TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL IF NOT A TAD HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ABOUT 1.3
INCHES TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
EARLY...BUT THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 20Z. INLAND TERMINALS WILL HAVE CONVECTION ON OR
NEARBY THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING DIURNALLY BY
02Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS A
COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE TODAY. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL HELP COMPRESS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING 15 KNOTS. ADD TO THAT
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WE COULD SEE WINDS NEARSHORE INCREASE TO
20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MARINE MOS
GUIDANCE BASED OFF THE GFS EVEN HAS 24 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MY FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT STRONG...
IT STILL SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY AT THE BEACHES AND ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS UP AT CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE FROM THE WEST PUSHING ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS EASTWARD. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD
BUILD TO 3-4 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A BIT OF A PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. MORE ACCURATE TO SAY THAT SW WINDS THE RESULT OF PIEDMONT
TROUGH SINCE THE ACTUAL BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. IT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY HOWEVER AND BE QUITE SLOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL TEND TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEN A N TO NE FLOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL ZONES MAY END UP BISECTED NORTH TO
SOUTH BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL THUS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AND AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN. SEAS
THUS REMAIN QUITE TAME...GENERALLY JUST 2 FT OR LESS. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MANAGES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. A NE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO THE DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS BUT NO ADVISORY OR EVEN HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LATEST OBS SHOW SFC BOUNDARY BETWEEN MINOT AND RUGBY WITH MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEST OF BIS AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. LATEST RAP SHOWING INCREASING CIN OVER EASTERN ND AND
MODELED SOUNDINGS (12Z NAM) SHOW NEG ENERGY "DECREASING" TO ABOUT
NEG 13 J/KG BY 21Z...THEN INCREASING QUICKLY WITH LOWERING SUN
ANGLE. LIKE THE IDEA OF CHANCE POPS VS LIKELIES GIVEN THE CIN AND
WEAK LLJ FLOW THIS EVENING. WILL MAINLY ADDRESS TEMPS WITH THIS
FCST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
NO FORECAST CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TEMPERATURES AND PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MONITORING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NW FA
TO SEE HOW FAR EAST IT GETS BEFORE WEAKENING.
OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LI`S TO -4 AND
ML CAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES CONTINUE IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. APPEARS THAT A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE SOME MODEST UPPER SUPPORT. STRONGEST DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. OVERALL EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH BEST POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE DVL BASIN. LOW LEVEL JET NON-EXISTENT SO SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL
WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HOWEVER COLUMN
REMAINS WARM SO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS WHERE MID 80S AGAIN LIKELY. DEW POINTS LOOK A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
BOUNDARY WEAKENS BUT REMAINS OVER THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY UPPER FORCING SO ANY COVERAGE
OF LINGERING PCPN IN QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE. SAME STORY WITH
TEMPERATURES AS COLUMN REMAINS WARM A DEGREE OF SOLAR WILL IMPACT
HOW WARM WE TOP OUT AT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LOW PRESSURE REORGANIZES OVER EASTERN MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW LATE.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER FA ON THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES INCREASE SETTING UP SOME HEALTHY CIN SO
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CAP TO GO SO BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE EVENING. BOUNDARY SLOW MOVING BEING PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW SO BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE DVL
BASIN...MAYBE FARTHER WEST.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO NORTH. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
AREA...HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...WITH FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO IT. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PWATS ABOVE 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN ADDITION TO
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY POSITION...WITH THE GFS HOLDING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SFC HIGH IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DO
HINT AT A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS FOR
TEMPS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING IN AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY AND
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1016 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID REMOVE THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS TO BE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANYTHING REACHES
THAT AREA. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIP/STORM CHANCES TODAY.
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ON THE HEELS OF LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY
AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHWEST ND AND NORTHWEST SD. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO
NORTHWEST SD BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH...OVERALL SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...BUT MODELS DO SHOW
VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST.
GENERAL AIR MASS LATER TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING. HI RES MODELS DO
SHOW SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAR
WEST TO CARRY THIS IS LOW. HAVE A FEELING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA IS GAME FOR SMALL/ISOLATED CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL/WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THE
CWA MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS
LEFT OVER ACROSS NORTHERN SD FROM THE ND MCS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
LATEST HRRR RUN COMING IN AND IT SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONGER CELLS
ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES AROUND 22Z. TEND TO HAVE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS AND
IT MAKES SENSE AS WELL GIVEN THE SFC FRONT PLACEMENT BY LATER
TODAY. SHEAR IS STRONGEST HERE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/WEAK
CAPPING EXIST AS WELL.
CAPPING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AREAS MAY
EVEN HIT 90 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES GIVE
OR TAKE...CONDITIONS WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ABOUT HEIGHT
FALLS...AND A FOCUSING SURFACE FRONT ADVECTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SCT AND EVEN LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE REGION. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL
PRETTY MARGINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THUS HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS MIGHT BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THEME. BY LATE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...ENOUGH THAT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IS SOMEWHAT LOW. THE ECMWF SUPPRESSES THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/SFC
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH VS THE GFS AND THUS IS COOLER WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND LESS RAINFALL. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND
TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING IFR FOG AND CIGS...THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD PROVE TO BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH TNT WILL EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
KMBG...AND THEN KABR TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1029 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE REGION WITH PWATS FROM 1.2 TO 1.5.
CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA FROM ERN KY INTO THE MTN EMPIRE OF
SW VA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
WEAK VORT DEPICTED PER LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS OVER ERN WV WILL
TRACK SE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFICALLY IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO GOING TO TRY TO DEPICT AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY THE
LATEST HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE WRF THAT SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...THEN COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND AT TIMES NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
2-3 PM EVERYWHERE.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING WARMER IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER THE SW. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WILL
SHOWERS...AND STORMS THREAT...WILL SEE TEMPS GET AFFECTED SOME
AFTER 2-3 PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A WEAK TROF IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROF WEAKENS THRU TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL CERTAINLY BE REDUCED.
WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD. BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT SLOWLY DROPS FROM NE TO SW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ALONG AND JUST TO THE WEST/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IS TYPICALLY FAVORED. RATHER WEAK FLOW COULD LEAD TO COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS AND/OR BACKBUILDING STORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HANGS THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO KEEP
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE THROUGH NW NC. ALL OTHER MODELS
PLUNGE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FURTHER SOUTH WHICH SHUTS OFF STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE TOUGH...HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON WHICH CITIES GET RAIN...AND THEN ON FRIDAY...HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS PENETRATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS INDICATING GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY LATE FRI...WITH VERY DRY AIR POISED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA FRI WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY WEST OF I-77 INTO THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED POPS FROM THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT
STILL SOME SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE PRESENT.
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS FOR MON-TUE FROM THE ALLEGHANYS WESTWARD.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR OFFSETTING THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND
850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +12C BACK TOWARD +16C BY MON/TUE. STILL NO
SIGNS OF ANY APPRECIABLE HOT WEATHER. MORNING TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND OWING LARGELY TO THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME VERY PLEASANT MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT MONDAY...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH KBLF AROUND 12Z/8AM...AND KBCB
AROUND 13Z/9AM. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AT KBLF WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH...BUT
PROBABLY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AFTER SUNSET. LOCATIONS THAT GET
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR TO IFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
SITES SUCH AS LWB/BCB/LYH. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1020 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS FOR A WHILE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ONGOING DRYING TREND IN SRN WI. POCKET OF HIGHER CIN IN THE SW
CWA WITH ANY FOCUS FURTHER NE JUST NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE UP THIS
AFTERNOON PER TRENDS IN HRRR/4KM SPC WRF.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO
YESTERDAY PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. 4KM
WRF AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS WITH A QUIET PERIOD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT A DRYER DAY.
PC
&&
.MARINE...DECIDED TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z PER SHEBOYGAN/PORT WASHINGTON WEBCAMS.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN 250 MB JET IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH
FROM MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW IS WEAK WITH WEAK 250 MB
DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. 925/850/700/500 MB ARE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. 700 AND 850 MB WINDS ALSO WEAKEN TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS AS THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 500
JOULES/KG BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. THEREFORE EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURUNALLY DRIVEN MOIST CONVECTION...WITH AN ADDED
FOCUS ON THE WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND SLOW MOVEMENT...ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE HAIL PARAMETERS ARE
LOW...BUT ISOLATED PULSE WET MICROBURSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WINDS
WEAKEN AND HUMID CONDITIONS LINGER. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE LOW/MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN GEM/NAM
SOLUTIONS KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FARTHER SOUTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FASTER FROM THE NORTH.
WENT WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...RESULTING IN A LOW
CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH EAST WINDS
RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL MOST
PLACES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH
AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALSO CONTINUE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO IFR/MVFR FOG
FORMATION AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL LINGER INTO
MID MORNING.
ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURUNALLY DRIVEN MOIST CONVECTION. WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND
SLOW MOVEMENT...ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SEVERE HAIL PARAMETERS ARE LOW...BUT ISOLATED WET
MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
HIGH DEW POINTS MOVING OVER THE COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WILL BRING
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE DENSE FOG SHOULD
LINGER INTO MID MORNING...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BEFORE ENDING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURUNALLY DRIVEN MOIST CONVECTION. WITH THE
WEAK WINDS AND SLOW MOVEMENT...ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE HAIL PARAMETERS ARE
LOW...BUT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS AM. TRANQUIL WEATHER HAS BEEN THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. SAW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP
AROUND CYS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM
ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH REPORTED FROM THAT ACTIVITY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS IN THE TEENS C. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR AFTN CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL MOST
LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY. RESULTING LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD INITIATE A
FEW TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. LIGHT QPF IS
BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF...AND A FEW CELLS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE HRRR BY 20Z. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PLAINS...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHERE INHIBITION
WILL BE WEAKEST.
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WED. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES
INCREASE TO AROUND 580 DM AMID EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE WITH MUCH OF
THE CWA DIRECTLY UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTING MID 90S FOR CDR...WHILE THE ECM IS COOLER. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE PATTERN...CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS FOR FCST HIGHS
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR WED SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...CLOSER TO TO THE MIDLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES. PATTERN
REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THU WITH TSTM CHANCES INCREASING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND ALLOWS A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CWA WITH REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM HURRICANE AMANDA. AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS AN INCREASED
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK WILL PULL
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
AMANDA WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE
COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS ANY RAINFALL WILL ENHANCE SNOWMELT WHILE ALSO ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE RIVERS. SEE THE HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF LEFTOVER AMANDA MOISTURE WILL BE CRITICAL.
SHOULD THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THE CHANCES FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED. BUT SHOULD MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THAT WOULD BE
A DIFFERENT STORY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS PUSHES THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING OVER THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO PERIODICAL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. LIKE USUAL THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE LOCATIONS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
NORTH...MAKING FOR A VERY WARM TO DOWN RIGHT HOT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF PLACES THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE WYOMING COLORADO BORDER...
WHICH WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE
BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN COOL AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FUELS
ARE STILL IN GREEN UP AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND DRIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RH VALUES COULD FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 14K AND 15K
FEET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THIS WEEK. FORECAST POINTS AND
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY RISEN TO FLOOD
STAGE ARE LIKELY TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENCAMPMENT RIVER AT ENCAMPMENT...THE LITTLE
SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY...AND THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SINCLAIR AND
SARATOGA. WE WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...NOW EXPIRING EARLY WED EVENING AS THE SNOW MELT
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE STOPPING ANYTIME SOON. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FOR
PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE DEVELOPING FLOOD THREAT...REFER
TO FFACYS. WARNING INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
419 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS AM. TRANQUIL WEATHER HAS BEEN THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. SAW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP
AROUND CYS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM
ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH REPORTED FROM THAT ACTIVITY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS IN THE TEENS C. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR AFTN CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL MOST
LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY. RESULTING LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD INITIATE A
FEW TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. LIGHT QPF IS
BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF...AND A FEW CELLS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE HRRR BY 20Z. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PLAINS...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHERE INHIBITION
WILL BE WEAKEST.
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WED. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES
INCREASE TO AROUND 580 DM AMID EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE WITH MUCH OF
THE CWA DIRECTLY UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTING MID 90S FOR CDR...WHILE THE ECM IS COOLER. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE PATTERN...CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS FOR FCST HIGHS
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR WED SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...CLOSER TO TO THE MIDLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES. PATTERN
REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THU WITH TSTM CHANCES INCREASING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND ALLOWS A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CWA WITH REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM HURRICANE AMANDA. AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS AN INCREASED
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK WILL PULL
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
AMANDA WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE
COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS ANY RAINFALL WILL ENHANCE SNOWMELT WHILE ALSO ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE RIVERS. SEE THE HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF LEFTOVER AMANDA MOISTURE WILL BE CRITICAL.
SHOULD THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THE CHANCES FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED. BUT SHOULD MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THAT WOULD BE
A DIFFERENT STORY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS PUSHES THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING OVER THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO PERIODICAL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. LIKE USUAL THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE LOCATIONS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
NORTH...MAKING FOR A VERY WARM TO DOWN RIGHT HOT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF PLACES THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE WYOMING COLORADO BORDER...
WHICH WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE
BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN COOL AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL DIE OFF BY
07Z. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE DYING SHOWERS. VFR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FUELS
ARE STILL IN GREEN UP AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND DRIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RH VALUES COULD FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 14K AND 15K
FEET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THIS WEEK. FORECAST POINTS AND
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY RISEN TO FLOOD
STAGE ARE LIKELY TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENCAMPMENT RIVER AT ENCAMPMENT...THE LITTLE
SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY...AND THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SINCLAIR AND
SARATOGA. WE WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...NOW EXPIRING EARLY WED EVENING AS THE SNOW MELT
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE STOPPING ANYTIME SOON. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FOR
PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE DEVELOPING FLOOD THREAT...REFER
TO FFACYS. WARNING INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
154 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...THEN CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
STALLS TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND
MULTIPLE FAST MOVING 700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA
IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI- STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS
POPPING UP OVER NW AREAS...WHICH LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO BE
CAPTURING. USING AS SUCH...THE PCPN CONTINUES TO LOOK TO DIVE SE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STRONGER TSTMS BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z.
WITH ON AVERAGE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 25-35 KT OF 0-6KM
SHEAR COULD SEE A FEW ISOLD SUPER CELLS AS WELL AS SOME
MULTI CELLULAR CLUSTERS WHICH ARE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ/NYC METRO/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW
CT...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SE SINKING BROAD WEAK LOW. MAIN
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FLOODING THREAT DUE TO CONVECTION AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...WHILE FARTHER WEST THE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS WEST OF ENTIRE AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SCT SHRA SHOULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE THINGS DRY OUT FROM E TO W AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM SE CANADA DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS...SO WOULD EXPECT ISOLD-SCT
SHRA TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES. CLEARING WILL
BE A BIT SLOWER TO OCCUR...SO WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NE 1/4 OF THE CWA.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A ONSHORE ENE-NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE
ON TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S - AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING
DOWN FORM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION BENEATH H9 IS
SLOWLY SCOURED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING
SUNSHINE. MORE INSOLATION DURING THE DAY WILL BE BALANCED BY
COOL ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...YIELDING HIGH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
THE TRI-STATE FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
CYCLONIC H5 FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE BEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF COOLING ALOFT/SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST...YIELDING
A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL EXIST DURING PEAK HEATING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE...AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE.
BY MONDAY...SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY RISING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY AND MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER BETWEEN 18Z-22Z WITH
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. A FEW STORMS AROUND NYC AND
NW OF NYC TERMINALS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS NYC METRO
TERMINALS. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST.
CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY
AFTER 07Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. AMENDMENTS FOR
POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWEST-SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WESTERLY-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. AMENDMENTS FOR
POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OR
EVEN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...VFR.
.FRI...VFR. SHRA POSSIBLE.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVEL ACROSS ANZ350-353 AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND BRING GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TO ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND S SHORE BAYS. AS A RESULT CONTINUING THE SCA
FROM 04Z WEDNESDAY-10Z THURSDAY FOR ANZ-350-353...FROM 10Z
WEDNESDAY-10Z THURSDAY FOR ANZ-355-3445...AND FROM 10Z-2Z
WEDNESDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT SCA LEVEL GUSTS COULD LINGER ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES THEN IN THOSE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH GUSTS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THURSDAY
MORNING...SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT INTO PART OF THE DAY ON THE
OCEAN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE
THOUGH AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH 20-25 KT STEERING
FLOW...FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED TO AREAS UNDER
TRAINING CONVECTION.
OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF A FEW TENTHS TO 2/3 INCH BASIN WIDE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING ENE-NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWEST LYING COASTAL AREAS ALONG WESTERN
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI SOUND WILL BE BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ345-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PICCA
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PICCA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND A MID LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS REMAIN SET UP CLOSE
TO THE REGION...WITH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
COUNTRY OF NEW YORK TOWARDS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA
TODAY...SETTING OFF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. THERE HAVE
BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S...CONVECTIVE CU CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
NOON-2 PM. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS MAINLY DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/SRN VT /CLOSER TO THE
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY/ AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EVENTUALLY SPILLING
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVENING...AS THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE JUST
WEST OF OUR AREA.
SPC HAS OUR AREA IN /SEE TEXT/ FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH FZL LEVEL/-20
DEGREE C HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MANY OF THE STORMS
TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STILL...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM...AND THIS
WORDING WILL BE STRESSED IN THE GRIDS AND HWO STATEMENT.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE...BUT MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT BUT COLD
ADVECTION IS RATHER GRADUAL...SO LOWS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
BUT LOWER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE
TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FAST NW FLOW AT 500HPA...AS A
PARADE OF SHORT WVS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...EACH SHARPENING A
500HPA TROF OVER NEW ENG...WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS
IN THE UPR GRT PLAINS AND SHIFTS INTO THE GRTLKS. GENERALLY THE
MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 1ST CDFNT IS ALONG I-80 WED MRNG....AND SAGGING S AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FM MARITIMES INTO NE USA IN INCRG E-SE MARINE
LAYER FLOW. AT SAME TIME ONE SHORT WV IS MVNG THRU FCA IN NW FLOW.
RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WED...DCRNG IN AFTN...AND THE
THREAT OF SCT -SHRA IN THE MRNG. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY FM
MON/TUES AS FCA IS IN MARITIME FLOW OFF GULF OF MAINE.
WED NT/THU 500HPA FLOW IS NW...WE TAKE A BREAK FM SHORT WV PARADE
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENG AND NY WITH GENERALLY FAIR...DRY
AND SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. MINS WED NT WILL BE IN THE
40S...HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
THU NT A STRONG 500 HPA SHORT WV DIVES FM OTTAWA VLY INTO THE
NE...AS ITS CDFNT REACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY FRI MRNG. THESE
SYSTEMS TRANSIT FCA FRI AND FR NT WITH INCR THREAT OF -SHRA/SCT
TSTMS LATE THU N...AND ACROSS FCA FRI AND FRI NT WHEN 500HPA
TEMPS FALL TO -20C...AND A STRONG DIURNAL ASPECT AS ALMOST SUMMER
SOLSTICE SUN DURING THE DAY FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLOW
NORMAL TO END THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A
SHARP 500HPA TROF JUST OFF THE US EAST COAST...AND A SHARP OR
CLOSED 590 HPA HIGH OVER GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...WITH FCA BWTN THESE
SYSTEMS SAT...AND A GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TO END THE EFP.
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS...MARINE LAYER AIR AND
POSSIBLY A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL IMPACT THE FCA. THE ECMWF/HPC/GFS/GEM
TEND TO KEEP BULK OF THE TROF AND ITS SENSIBLE WX...CLOUDS OFFSHORE
EXCPT THOSE ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF 500HPA SHORT WV SAT...WHICH
RESULTS IN CHC -SHRA SAT OVER W NEW ENG AND MORE CLOUDS SAT. ALL
GUID HAS FAIR AND WARMING CONDS SUN/MON AS 500HPA RIDGE DOMINATES.
SO WHILE ALL GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ITS NOT EXACTLY A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FCST AS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILE SHIFT COULD RESULT IN
DAMP...COOL AND DISMAL CONDS PARTICULARLY FM HUD VLY E. AND A
SHIFT FURTHER EAST COULD RESULT IN A DRY AND WARMER FCST. FOR
NOW WILL POP EFP WITH OVERNIGHT HPC GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL HELP TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. HAVE INDICATED
A TEMPO GROUP DURING THIS TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND VCSH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BUT COVERAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE TO PROMOTE MVFR LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR STRATUS AT KPSF. MVFR VISIBILITIES
SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KALB.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LINGER AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...TRIGGERING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES
HIGH WITH RH 45 TO 55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT 50 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH QPF...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1228 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND A MID LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS REMAIN SET UP CLOSE
TO THE REGION...WITH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
COUNTRY OF NEW YORK TOWARDS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA
TODAY...SETTING OFF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. THERE HAVE
BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S...CONVECTIVE CU CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
NOON-2 PM. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS MAINLY DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/SRN VT /CLOSER TO THE
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY/ AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EVENTUALLY SPILLING
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVENING...AS THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE JUST
WEST OF OUR AREA.
SPC HAS OUR AREA IN /SEE TEXT/ FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH FZL LEVEL/-20
DEGREE C HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MANY OF THE STORMS
TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STILL...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM...AND THIS
WORDING WILL BE STRESSED IN THE GRIDS AND HWO STATEMENT.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE...BUT MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT BUT COLD
ADVECTION IS RATHER GRADUAL...SO LOWS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
BUT LOWER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE
TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FAST NW FLOW AT 500HPA...AS A
PARADE OF SHORT WVS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...EACH SHARPENING A
500HPA TROF OVER NEW ENG...WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS
IN THE UPR GRT PLAINS AND SHIFTS INTO THE GRTLKS. GENERALLY THE
MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 1ST CDFNT IS ALONG I-80 WED MRNG....AND SAGGING S AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FM MARITIMES INTO NE USA IN INCRG E-SE MARINE
LAYER FLOW. AT SAME TIME ONE SHORT WV IS MVNG THRU FCA IN NW FLOW.
RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WED...DCRNG IN AFTN...AND THE
THREAT OF SCT -SHRA IN THE MRNG. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY FM
MON/TUES AS FCA IS IN MARITIME FLOW OFF GULF OF MAINE.
WED NT/THU 500HPA FLOW IS NW...WE TAKE A BREAK FM SHORT WV PARADE
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENG AND NY WITH GENERALLY FAIR...DRY
AND SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. MINS WED NT WILL BE IN THE
40S...HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
THU NT A STRONG 500 HPA SHORT WV DIVES FM OTTAWA VLY INTO THE
NE...AS ITS CDFNT REACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY FRI MRNG. THESE
SYSTEMS TRANSIT FCA FRI AND FR NT WITH INCR THREAT OF -SHRA/SCT
TSTMS LATE THU N...AND ACROSS FCA FRI AND FRI NT WHEN 500HPA
TEMPS FALL TO -20C...AND A STRONG DIURNAL ASPECT AS ALMOST SUMMER
SOLSTICE SUN DURING THE DAY FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BLOW
NORMAL TO END THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A
SHARP 500HPA TROF JUST OFF THE US EAST COAST...AND A SHARP OR
CLOSED 590 HPA HIGH OVER GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...WITH FCA BWTN THESE
SYSTEMS SAT...AND A GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TO END THE EFP.
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS...MARINE LAYER AIR AND
POSSIBLY A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL IMPACT THE FCA. THE ECMWF/HPC/GFS/GEM
TEND TO KEEP BULK OF THE TROF AND ITS SENSIBLE WX...CLOUDS OFFSHORE
EXCPT THOSE ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF 500HPA SHORT WV SAT...WHICH
RESULTS IN CHC -SHRA SAT OVER W NEW ENG AND MORE CLOUDS SAT. ALL
GUID HAS FAIR AND WARMING CONDS SUN/MON AS 500HPA RIDGE DOMINATES.
SO WHILE ALL GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ITS NOT EXACTLY A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FCST AS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILE SHIFT COULD RESULT IN
DAMP...COOL AND DISMAL CONDS PARTICULARLY FM HUD VLY E. AND A
SHIFT FURTHER EAST COULD RESULT IN A DRY AND WARMER FCST. FOR
NOW WILL POP EFP WITH OVERNIGHT HPC GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS THAT ARE TENDING TO DRY UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF
AFTER ABOUT 14Z-15Z. STILL...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
INDICATING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AFTER 18Z-
21Z. IN ADDITION...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED -TSRA AROUND THE REGION...BUT WILL
KEEP VSBYS/CIGS ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.
THE FRONT TRACKS TRACKS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE NIGHT AFTER
00Z AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SOLIDLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THROUGH 04Z AND BEYOND...AND MAY APPROACH IFR LATE TONIGHT...BUT
AGAIN...SOME UNCERTAINTIES SO LATER FORECASTS MAY INDICATE SOME IFR.
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KT TODAY..SHIFTING TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 6 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...TRIGGERING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES
HIGH WITH RH 45 TO 55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT 50 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH QPF...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MOST SHRA/TSRA WELL
INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A TSRA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR KAPF IF ANY CELL DRIFTS TO THE WEST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AND LEFT VCSH IN THE TAF. THE SURFACE SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT A FEW INLAND SITES
MAY BECOME L/V AFT 06-08Z.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE
12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WERE ONLY AROUND 6 C/KM...WHICH IS NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
PWATS UP AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THERE WAS A SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF HAIL FROM
THE HWO. THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO ONLY LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND...MAINLY FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND WESTWARD. BUMPED UP POPS TO THE 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST TO COLLIDE. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE WIND L/V EARLY
AND SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16-18Z. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BUT WILL BE MOSTLY INLAND FROM THE KAPF TERMINAL.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING AN EASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGING IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND A GENERAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...AS WITH MOST CONVECTION THIS
TIME OF YEAR...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST DUE TO THE WEAKER PENETRATION OF THE GULF
BREEZE AND PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS.
EASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME
A STRONG H5 LOW WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BE RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
AND SHOULD HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SEA AND GULF BREEZES
WILL KICK IN ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE SITE THAT COULD BE THE EXCEPTION
IS KAPF, IF THERE ARE ANY IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH EAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET OR
LESS. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
GULF WATERS.
&& LAUDERDALE 78 86 77 86 / 10 20 10 30 MIAMI 76 86 76 87 / 10
20 10 30 NAPLES 72 89 72 89 / 20 30 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
334 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION TRENDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
SHARP COOLING AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TEMPS COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH MAINLY COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP DEPICTS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI TO NEAR THE SOO. ALOFT...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRIFT ALONG THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHILE A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS
NOTED OVER MN/IA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FASTER FLOW ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING NOTED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH MODEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECTATION IS THAT DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
CONCUR...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THEN EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
AND NORTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED OF THE WEAK FRONT...
WITH A PREFERENCE FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS/LOCAL WRF SOLUTIONS WHICH
SLIDE FRONT DOWN THE ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING QUICK COOLING (NEAR 80 DROPPING INTO 60S) TO THE NORTH SHORE
AND ADJACENT AREAS BEFORE EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME FOG DUE TO COOL
LAKE AND HUMID AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND
500 J/KG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THUS NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.50" PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SUNSET...AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DECREASES.
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
NORTH...AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY...READINGS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE THEN
DEVELOPS AND BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY DOWNSTREAM OF
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES WILL KEEP LAKE COOLING IN PLAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE TEMPS OTHERWISE MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S FARTHER
INLAND BENEATH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. EFFECT OF LAKE COOLING WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHEAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE PROPAGATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER THAN GFS AND
GEFS MEMBERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE...AND IN BRINGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH SUPPORT OF GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY
AND SHOW FAIRLY MINIMAL SPREAD. THUS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW IN
PICKING EITHER EXTREME IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AT THIS DISTANCE...AND
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY REPRESENT A BLEND TOWARD THE GEFS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS THE
TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ITS VICINITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THAT THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AS IT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO TO
WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...IT STILL APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE AFTER
21 UTC TIMEFRAME...THROUGH ABOUT 00-01 UTC THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME LOW VIS UNDER 2SM FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
COLD FRONT...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF KMDW INDICATES LITTLE TO NO CAP IN
PLACE TO PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...ANY SUBTLE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES OR ASCENT COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT TIMING ADVERTISED IN THE
TAFS. IT APPEARS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT TIMING OF 00 UTC FOR ORD COULD
BE A BIT LATE...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A PASSAGE AS EARLY AS THE 22
TO 23 UTC HOUR. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN SWITCHING TIMES NOW...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE...I WOULD LIKE TO WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING A CHANGE TO THIS TIMING.
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG ARE PROBABLE LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT LOW END MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING AND ACTUAL IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
* LOW MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. PRIMARILY NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...SLT CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING THE SOUTH END
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL STABLE WATERS OF THE
LAKE RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ONCE
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE FOG AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE SHUNTED BACK INTO THE
IL/IN NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK AND REMAINS SITUATED
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO TURN A
LAKE BREEZE RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1237 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Not much of a shift overall from yesterday. Storm system brewing
over the Southern Plains and warm humid air surging into the FA
this morning. Broken mid/high clouds out there, but still expecting the
development of a cu field as well. Diurnally driven showers and
thunder this afternoon likely, though coverage will be in the
scattered range. Have reduced pops overall to slightly better
reflect the similarity to yesterday. Going forecast is doing well
for the afternoon as far as temperatures into the 80s but a couple
degrees cooler than yesterday with a little more in the way of
cloud cover. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Forecast almost identical to 24 hrs ago, with more west/southwesterly
winds. Continuing VFR conditions through the forecast because of
uncertainty as to where afternoon showers may affect llvl RH. Cu
slow to form over this region under existing mid/high cloud cover. Afternoon
ts will be scattered enough to keep to a vc mention until storms
form. Sct cu will diminish with loss of daytime heating, but
likely linger a mention of a sct group before the broken mid/high.
Similar through the morning. Surface dew points will need to climb
a couple more degrees before amending for an MVFR vis drop for the
early morning hours.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Weak surface low centered just east of Minneapolis early this
morning, with a boundary extending southwest into north central
Iowa. Earlier showers/storms in southwest Illinois, associated
with a weak trough around 925 mb, have largely faded with just
some sprinkles perhaps in the far southwest CWA west of
Jacksonville. Persistent large upper low evident on water vapor
imagery continues to make slow progress east-southeast, and was
centered over the Texas panhandle, with a broad trough extending
northward through the Plains.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:
Still not much change in the weather pattern during this part of
the forecast. Main concern will be with diurnal showers and
storms. While the upper low will not directly impact us, it still
will have a bit of influence with a shortwave in the northern
stream, which will slip a backdoor cold front through the forecast
area on Wednesday. This front will bring slightly cooler
temperatures by mid week, namely lower 80s vs mid/upper 80s.
Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late morning, becoming more numerous in the
afternoon before dying off in the evening. Instability expected to
be rather modest, with the NAM and RAP keeping CAPE`s over most of
the forecast area below 1000 J/kg, so severe weather is of little
concern. However, precipitable water values around 1.6 inches
would favor some heavier downpours, but the scattered nature of
the storms will result in widely varying precipitation amounts.
Somewhat better rain chances expected on Wednesday as the front
arrives and provides some better forcing, and have increased
PoP`s to around 60% across the central third of the CWA. For
Thursday, the evening model runs have started a trend of shifting
the rain chances a bit further south due to the movement of the
front. Have reduced rain chances to around 20% northwest of the
Illinois River as a result, but continued the mention of scattered
storms elsewhere.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:
Upper ridge will be drifting through the Mississippi Valley late
in the week, flattening out early next week. Our next rain chances
will be focused on a shortwave that will ride along the top of
what`s left of the ridge late in the weekend. Main rain chances
with this feature look to be Sunday afternoon and evening. The
model solutions then begin to diverge early next week, with the
ECMWF wetter, but its solution has also shifted its rain/frontal
boundary quite a bit further north than the last run. Still looks
to be scattered storms in the general area on Monday with either
this solution or the GFS solution.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
334 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION TRENDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
SHARP COOLING AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TEMPS COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH MAINLY COOLER NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. TEMPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP DEPICTS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI TO NEAR THE SOO. ALOFT...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRIFT ALONG THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHILE A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS
NOTED OVER MN/IA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FASTER FLOW ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING NOTED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH MODEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECTATION IS THAT DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
CONCUR...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THEN EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
AND NORTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SPEED OF THE WEAK FRONT...
WITH A PREFERENCE FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS/LOCAL WRF SOLUTIONS WHICH
SLIDE FRONT DOWN THE ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING QUICK COOLING (NEAR 80 DROPPING INTO 60S) TO THE NORTH SHORE
AND ADJACENT AREAS BEFORE EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME FOG DUE TO COOL
LAKE AND HUMID AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND
500 J/KG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THUS NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.50" PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SUNSET...AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DECREASES.
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
NORTH...AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY...READINGS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE MID-UPPER 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE THEN
DEVELOPS AND BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY DOWNSTREAM OF
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES WILL KEEP LAKE COOLING IN PLAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE TEMPS OTHERWISE MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S FARTHER
INLAND BENEATH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. EFFECT OF LAKE COOLING WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHEAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE PROPAGATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER THAN GFS AND
GEFS MEMBERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE...AND IN BRINGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH SUPPORT OF GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY
AND SHOW FAIRLY MINIMAL SPREAD. THUS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW IN
PICKING EITHER EXTREME IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AT THIS DISTANCE...AND
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY REPRESENT A BLEND TOWARD THE GEFS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BY THIS EVENING.
* LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BMD/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG THIS THIS
MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH
LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE TODAY...CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AT ANY TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES
APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE DOWN THE LAKE WITH AN
ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE THE WINDS
TURN NORTHEASTERLY...BUT THEN THE CONCERN WILL TURN TO LOWER VSBY
AND CIGS. DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY SPILL
INLAND AS THE WINDS TURN LATER TODAY...LIFTING TO AN IFR OR LOWER
MVFR DECK AS IT REACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT WITH CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR CIGS IN
THE MEANTIME.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING AND ACTUAL IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
* LOW MEDIUM IN LOW MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING.
BMD/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. PRIMARILY NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...SLT CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING THE SOUTH END
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL STABLE WATERS OF THE
LAKE RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ONCE
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE FOG AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE SHUNTED BACK INTO THE
IL/IN NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK AND REMAINS SITUATED
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO TURN A
LAKE BREEZE RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1047 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Not much of a shift overall from yesterday. Storm system brewing
over the Southern Plains and warm humid air surging into the FA
this morning. Broken mid/high clouds out there, but still expecting the
development of a cu field as well. Diurnally driven showers and
thunder this afternoon likely, though coverage will be in the
scattered range. Have reduced pops overall to slightly better
reflect the similarity to yesterday. Going forecast is doing well
for the afternoon as far as temperatures into the 80s but a couple
degrees cooler than yesterday with a little more in the way of
cloud cover. Updates out momentarily.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
VFR conditions expected into tonight with the possibility of some
MVFR vsbys in fog. Any convection that affects a TAF site this
afternoon or early this evening will be capable of bringing cigs
and vsbys down to MVFR for a brief time, but coverage expected
to be too limited once again so will continue with VCTS at or
just aftr 20z. Forecast soundings suggest cumulus to form aftr
15z with bases in the 4000-5000 foot range before dissipating
aftr 23z. Overnight, we may see some MVFR vsbys in fog/hz develop
aftr 09z, especially at any location that receives rainfall
today or this evening.
Surface winds will continue from a southwest direction today at
10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. A cold
front will shift south into our far northern areas late tonight
but it appears the boundary will stay just north of our TAF sites.
Winds overnight will be from a southwest to west direction at 5 to
10 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CDT Tue May 27 2014
Weak surface low centered just east of Minneapolis early this
morning, with a boundary extending southwest into north central
Iowa. Earlier showers/storms in southwest Illinois, associated
with a weak trough around 925 mb, have largely faded with just
some sprinkles perhaps in the far southwest CWA west of
Jacksonville. Persistent large upper low evident on water vapor
imagery continues to make slow progress east-southeast, and was
centered over the Texas panhandle, with a broad trough extending
northward through the Plains.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:
Still not much change in the weather pattern during this part of
the forecast. Main concern will be with diurnal showers and
storms. While the upper low will not directly impact us, it still
will have a bit of influence with a shortwave in the northern
stream, which will slip a backdoor cold front through the forecast
area on Wednesday. This front will bring slightly cooler
temperatures by mid week, namely lower 80s vs mid/upper 80s.
Similar to yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late morning, becoming more numerous in the
afternoon before dying off in the evening. Instability expected to
be rather modest, with the NAM and RAP keeping CAPE`s over most of
the forecast area below 1000 J/kg, so severe weather is of little
concern. However, precipitable water values around 1.6 inches
would favor some heavier downpours, but the scattered nature of
the storms will result in widely varying precipitation amounts.
Somewhat better rain chances expected on Wednesday as the front
arrives and provides some better forcing, and have increased
PoP`s to around 60% across the central third of the CWA. For
Thursday, the evening model runs have started a trend of shifting
the rain chances a bit further south due to the movement of the
front. Have reduced rain chances to around 20% northwest of the
Illinois River as a result, but continued the mention of scattered
storms elsewhere.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:
Upper ridge will be drifting through the Mississippi Valley late
in the week, flattening out early next week. Our next rain chances
will be focused on a shortwave that will ride along the top of
what`s left of the ridge late in the weekend. Main rain chances
with this feature look to be Sunday afternoon and evening. The
model solutions then begin to diverge early next week, with the
ECMWF wetter, but its solution has also shifted its rain/frontal
boundary quite a bit further north than the last run. Still looks
to be scattered storms in the general area on Monday with either
this solution or the GFS solution.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING...EXIST OVER
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS
ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS NAM
DEVELOPED SHOWERS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND NORTON
COUNTY KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPEARS TO NOT STRETCH THIS FAR WEST...AND CONSIDERING THE HRRR
HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE 12Z NAM REMOVED
PRECIP FROM THE CWA...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA TOMORROW.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20C TO 25C
RANGE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO THAT COULD MOVE EAST INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS...SO
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 21Z TO 23Z...FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. CAPE IS UNDER 100O J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA BUT KEPT IT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY THAT MAY MAKE INTO
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY EVENING.
THAT PATTERN REPEATS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
FURTHER EAST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THE COLORADO CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST WITH SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
PATTERN SUGGESTS A RATHER ROBUST DRY SLOT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MAY
INHIBIT CHANCES HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 8KTS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KTS FROM 17Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING...EXIST OVER
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS
ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS NAM
DEVELOPED SHOWERS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND NORTON
COUNTY KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPEARS TO NOT STRETCH THIS FAR WEST...AND CONSIDERING THE HRRR
HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE 12Z NAM REMOVED
PRECIP FROM THE CWA...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA TOMORROW.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20C TO 25C
RANGE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO THAT COULD MOVE EAST INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS...SO
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 21Z TO 23Z...FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. CAPE IS UNDER 100O J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA BUT KEPT IT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY THAT MAY MAKE INTO
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY EVENING.
THAT PATTERN REPEATS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
FURTHER EAST THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THE COLORADO CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST WITH SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERIOD
APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
PATTERN SUGGESTS A RATHER ROBUST DRY SLOT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MAY
INHIBIT CHANCES HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP RESULTING FROM
IT AT KMCK. THEREFORE...WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND FROM THE OFFICE.
INCLUDED A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD AT KGLD AND A BROKEN CUMULUS
FIELD AT KMCK FROM 20Z/21Z TO 02Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
108 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING...EXIST OVER
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS
ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS NAM
DEVELOPED SHOWERS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND NORTON
COUNTY KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPEARS TO NOT STRETCH THIS FAR WEST...AND CONSIDERING THE HRRR
HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THE 12Z NAM REMOVED
PRECIP FROM THE CWA...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA TOMORROW.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20C TO 25C
RANGE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO THAT COULD MOVE EAST INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS...SO
WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 21Z TO 23Z...FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. CAPE IS UNDER 100O J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA BUT KEPT IT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY THAT MAY MAKE INTO
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT ASSUMING THE
RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. BASIC
SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY
MONDAY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS BRINGING A DRY SLOT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PRECIP RESULTING FROM
IT AT KMCK. THEREFORE...WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND FROM THE OFFICE.
INCLUDED A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD AT KGLD AND A BROKEN CUMULUS
FIELD AT KMCK FROM 20Z/21Z TO 02Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT THEN CREST
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NYS AS OF 18Z WHILE
AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS OFF THIS LOW INTO WSW MAINE WHILE HIGH
PRES IS WEDGING ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DISTURBANCE WAS SWINGING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL ACT W/THE SFC FRONT TO LEAD TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAIN NOW EXTENDING
FURTHER NORTH INTO NW AREAS. DECIDED TO BRING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER TO THE NORTH W/THIS PACKAGE USING A BLEND OF THE RAP AND
GFS SHOWING FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS EDGING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NERFC AND HPC FOR QPF TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH SUPPORTS 0.15 TO 0.25" MAINLY IN WESTERN AREAS.
CLOUDS HAVE STAYED ALL THE WAY THROUGH TODAY BUT SOME DRIER AIR
WAS TRYING TO SEEP SOUTH FROM CANADA PER THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BACK BELOW
40F ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. FAR NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/THAT DRYING DRAINING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HITTING THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THEREFORE, ADDED
PATCHY FROST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
RAIN WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRES WEDGES DOWN FROM CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY W/THE
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE,
THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE A CHALLENGE W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 F THE CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER W/MID 60S AT LEAST AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZE THE POPS AND QPF WITH
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE WIND GRIDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25.
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM THE SUPPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDS
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT W/EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR MAINLY KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KHUL.
KBGR AND KBHB COULD HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER W/A
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WATERS PER THE LATEST OB FROM 33034 W/WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EXPECTING VSBY
TO IMPROVE AND FOG TO CLEAR AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE ENE ON
WEDNESDAY. KEPT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND DECIDED TO BRING
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL STAY AT 2-3 FT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY WAVE GROUP THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM AROUND
2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. WIND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED THIS
PERIOD DUE TO THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS MAY PRODUCE LONG PERIOD WAVE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THEN WRN PLAINS TO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN TROUGHS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED OVER NRN WI
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHRTWV NORTH OF A FRONT LOW OVER SE MN AND FRONT
THROUGH SRN WI.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WI SHRTWV AND REMAINING MID CLOUDS INTO THE SRN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO DRIFT TO THE SE. AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR WILL
DROP INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 0.3 INCH.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES ALSO DOMINATES. A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE VERY DRY 900-750 MB LAYER...EXPECT DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH RH DOWN TO NEAR 20
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY DUE TO CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY (AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO QUEBEC). AS THIS OCCURS...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES UNDER IT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGES...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO BE IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE A COUPLE HINTS OF SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES...COULD SEE
A FEW DIURNAL CU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND EITHER
VARIABLE OR OUT OF AT NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE COLD GREAT LAKES TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES TO BE THE NORM ON MOST DAYS. THUS...INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S) WHILE THE LAKESHORES WILL WARM UP IN THE MORNING AND
THEN START COOLING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING OVER THE INLAND
AREAS WILL SUPPORT LOWER RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOONS (MID 20S TO MID
30S PERCENT)...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND A RAPIDLY OCCURRING GREEN UP WILL
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GENERAL IDEA OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND EXACT TIMING. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SEEMS
REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN. A BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY NE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. SOUTH WINDS MAY NEAR OR EXCEED 20 KNOTS
BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG DOMINATING
THE NCENTRAL CONUS/CENTRAL CANADA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CNDN MARITIMES AND N OF CLOSED LO DRIFTING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. SFC
HI PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...AND A N WIND
ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN
ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD
FROPA A BIT FASTER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY. WITH A NNE WIND CLOSE TO 15 MPH AT HOUGHTON...THE SFC
DEWPT FELL FM 56 AT 27/00Z TO 45 AT 27/05Z. THE 05Z SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSION WAS 14 DEGREES THERE. N WIND UP TO 24 KTS REPORTED AT
STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUSE HAS ENHANCED THIS LLVL DRYING TREND. THERE
WAS SOME FOG ON LK SUP EARLIER...BUT RECENT SHIP OBS/STLT IMAGERY
INDICATE PATCHY FOG LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF ONLY ERN LK SUP. THE
LLVL DRYING HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DVLP OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...AND
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG HAVE FORMED IN THESE AREAS. A NEARLY STNRY LINE
OF SHOWERS/SOME TS LINGERS FM SCENTRAL MN ACROSS NCENTRAL WI TO LK
MI JUST S OF MENOMINEE TO THE S OF THE SFC COLD FNT WHERE THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING W TO E THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE IMPACT OF CURRENT LLVL
DRYING TRENDS AND WHETHER ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN WI WL IMPACT THE SRN
COUNTIES TODAY.
TODAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN INVIGORATING AREA OF SHOWERS TO
THE S OF UPR MI IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU THE DAY AND
WEAKEN UNDER SLOW H5 RISES AS THE UPR RDG SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
CWA. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO FADE AWAY BY 18Z
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SHRTWV AND CONTINUED DRY ADVCTN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THE HI PRES IN ONTARIO FCST TO BUILD INTO NCENTRAL LK
SUP THIS AFTN. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND THE STRONGER DRY ADVCTN
NOTED ABOVE...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE DRIER MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNED
TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND REMOVE POPS FM ALL BUT MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MRNG. IF THERE ARE ANY LO CLDS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA WHERE THE
LLVL DRYING HAS SO FAR BEEN MORE MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD DSPT WITH
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF BLDG HI PRES/DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
APRCHG 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL FARTHER FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUP. TEMPS NEAR THE BIG LK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S. DEEP MIXING OFF
THE DRIER GFS SDNGS WOULD INDICATE SFC DEWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE
TEENS TODAY. GIVEN THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...35 TO 45 FOR THE DEWPTS
SEEMS MORE RSNBL...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT
BY LATE AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
TNGT...POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH H85-5 MEAN RH FALLING AS LO AS 20 PCT. PWAT FCST 0.33-0.50 INCH
WL BE 50-75 PCT OF NORMAL. WITH LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY DUE TO CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY (AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO QUEBEC). AS THIS OCCURS...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND PUT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES UNDER IT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGES...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO BE IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE A COUPLE HINTS OF SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES...COULD SEE
A FEW DIURNAL CU. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND EITHER
VARIABLE OR OUT OF AT NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE COLD GREAT LAKES TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES TO BE THE NORM ON MOST DAYS. THUS...INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S) WHILE THE LAKESHORES WILL WARM UP IN THE MORNING AND
THEN START COOLING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING OVER THE INLAND
AREAS WILL SUPPORT LOWER RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOONS (MID 20S TO MID
30S PERCENT)...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND A RAPIDLY OCCURRING GREEN UP WILL
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GENERAL IDEA OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND EXACT TIMING. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SEEMS
REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN. A BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY NE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG DOMINATING
THE NCENTRAL CONUS/CENTRAL CANADA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC NW AND THE
CNDN MARITIMES AND N OF CLOSED LO DRIFTING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. SFC
HI PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS BLDG INTO NW ONTARIO...AND A N WIND
ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN
ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD
FROPA A BIT FASTER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY. WITH A NNE WIND CLOSE TO 15 MPH AT HOUGHTON...THE SFC
DEWPT FELL FM 56 AT 27/00Z TO 45 AT 27/05Z. THE 05Z SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSION WAS 14 DEGREES THERE. N WIND UP TO 24 KTS REPORTED AT
STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUSE HAS ENHANCED THIS LLVL DRYING TREND. THERE
WAS SOME FOG ON LK SUP EARLIER...BUT RECENT SHIP OBS/STLT IMAGERY
INDICATE PATCHY FOG LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF ONLY ERN LK SUP. THE
LLVL DRYING HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DVLP OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...AND
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG HAVE FORMED IN THESE AREAS. A NEARLY STNRY LINE
OF SHOWERS/SOME TS LINGERS FM SCENTRAL MN ACROSS NCENTRAL WI TO LK
MI JUST S OF MENOMINEE TO THE S OF THE SFC COLD FNT WHERE THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING W TO E THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE IMPACT OF CURRENT LLVL
DRYING TRENDS AND WHETHER ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN WI WL IMPACT THE SRN
COUNTIES TODAY.
TODAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN INVIGORATING AREA OF SHOWERS TO
THE S OF UPR MI IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU THE DAY AND
WEAKEN UNDER SLOW H5 RISES AS THE UPR RDG SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
CWA. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO FADE AWAY BY 18Z
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SHRTWV AND CONTINUED DRY ADVCTN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THE HI PRES IN ONTARIO FCST TO BUILD INTO NCENTRAL LK
SUP THIS AFTN. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND THE STRONGER DRY ADVCTN
NOTED ABOVE...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE DRIER MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNED
TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND REMOVE POPS FM ALL BUT MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MRNG. IF THERE ARE ANY LO CLDS/FOG OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA WHERE THE
LLVL DRYING HAS SO FAR BEEN MORE MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD DSPT WITH
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF BLDG HI PRES/DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
APRCHG 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL FARTHER FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
SUP. TEMPS NEAR THE BIG LK SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S. DEEP MIXING OFF
THE DRIER GFS SDNGS WOULD INDICATE SFC DEWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE
TEENS TODAY. GIVEN THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...35 TO 45 FOR THE DEWPTS
SEEMS MORE RSNBL...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT
BY LATE AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
TNGT...POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH H85-5 MEAN RH FALLING AS LO AS 20 PCT. PWAT FCST 0.33-0.50 INCH
WL BE 50-75 PCT OF NORMAL. WITH LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM 12Z WED
THROUGH MOST OF SAT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA WED INTO SAT AS SFC RIDGING
REMAINS MOSTLY DOMINANT OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH ON WED AND THU WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY OF 10-14C. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND...WITH
COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S RIGHT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NERN
CWA ON FRI...WHICH MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NERN CWA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CWA...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMER THERE THAN ON WED-THU. THINK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR E AND IN THE LOW 80S INTERIOR W ARE REASONABLE...WITH
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FEATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL
SETUP IS AS FOLLOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO E OF THE CWA ON
SAT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NRN HUDSON BAY. THE SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO MN BY 00Z SUN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SLY FLOW.
850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO INCREASE TO 17C BY 00Z SUN. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W ARE CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SAT. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
ON THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY UP THE FRONT AND STALLS IT OVER THE CWA INTO MON. SUN AND MON
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS IN THIS
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH CHANCE
POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY NE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL THRU SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
PCPN-FREE... BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A COMPACT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND BEST DEPICTED BY THE 400-300 MB PV FROM
THE RAP AND NAM. PCPN IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PV
ANOMALY... COINCIDENT WITH THE GRADIENT OF A COMPACT 300 MB JET IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 KT. THE FEATURE IS ALSO LENDING ITSELF TO
SOME MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION... WHICH IS HELPING THINGS OUT BY
PROVIDING A BIT OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. ALL OF THESE THINGS
ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A SHIELD OF PATCHY PCPN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
PRESENT OVER THE AREA... WITH MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC SFCOA
RUNNING AROUND 250-500 J/KG. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHT... THE
THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS ARE EVEN SHOWING A HINT OF LARGE SCALE QG
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE... AND MANAGE TO WRING OUT SOME QG-
FORCED PCPN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP BOTH
SUGGEST THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NEARING ITS
NORTHERN MOST REACH... AND SHOULD BEGIN TO START SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS OUT A BIT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER... AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AND WARMING ONCE AGAIN... WHICH WILL HELP
BUMP UP INSTABILITY... AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WHEREVER WE HAVE LINGERING FORCING FROM THIS LARGER
SCALE FEATURE OR LOCALIZED WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OVERALL... THE IMPACT OF EACH
OF THOSE THINGS SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY... SO
WILL START TO SHIFT POPS SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING... WHILE ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
HAVE SOME CONCERN WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN SNEAK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION WHICH IS
EXPECTED UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS ONCE AGAIN... BUT WILL LEAVE
THAT OUT OF THE MIX FOR NOW WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE CAMS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS
ALSO INDICATE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM OUR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING... WHICH WOULD HELP MITIGATE THE
POTENTIAL OF ANYTHING UPSTREAM WORKING INTO THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN... SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN IN OUR
AREA GIVEN A LACK OF DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD CERTAINLY BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN WITH
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS AND REMAINING MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
COULD SEE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
UPDRAFTS COLLOCATE THEMSELVES WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
AS THEY DID YESTERDAY... AND MANAGE TO STRETCH THE BACKGROUND
SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SOUTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA... WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE MOST POTENT UPDRAFTS WOULD BE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL DRYING TREND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
TREND.
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE DRIVEN WEST AS SURFACE HIGH DROPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME MINOR COOLING...MAINLY
TO THE EAST INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
THROUGH 80S ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WITH TIME. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDER INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WORKS TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
WITH ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF REMNANTS
OF DAKOTAS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SMALL POP IN THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE DECENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL PLUME
MOISTURE ADDED TO THE MIX AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT WELL INTO OUR CWA BY
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRIVING IT SOUTH TO AT LEAST THE MN/IA
BORDER BY THAT TIME. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
TRICKY FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 27/18Z TAFS DUE TO SUCH VARIABILITY
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SPOTTY SHOWERS...WHICH WILL ERODE THE
RE-FORM LOWER CEILINGS...ALL UNDERNEATH A DEPARTING ROTATING UPPER
LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW EXITS FURTHER TO THE E...CEILINGS WILL
OVERALL IMPROVE TO VFR...MAINLY BY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVE HRS. CIGS WILL THEN WILL SCATTER OUT...LEAVING MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR TMRW AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. WINDS MAINLY SE TO E WITH
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN 2-4 KFT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THIS 18Z SET...THEN EVENTUALLY REMAIN ABOVE 4 KFT
FROM LATE THIS AFTN THRU THE DAY TMRW. OCNL SHWRS MAY STILL DRIFT
ACRS THE FIELD...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANYTHING THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY
TO LESS THAN 6SM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. SE WIND 5-10 KT.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH CHC SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND S 10
KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. 27.12Z KLBF SOUNDING SHOWED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH THE DAY. SO EXPECTING TO GET CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON UPON REACHING
SURFACE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MOISTURE WON/T BE GREAT THOUGH SO
THINKING COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND HAVE THE
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
NORTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE. STEERING
FLOW IS LIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MINIMAL SO EXPECTING
GENERALLY SLOW MOVING GARDEN VARIETY TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GOOD MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CAPE MODEST. K INDICES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 35C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN THE
WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT STORM MOTION WOULD BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AS
INDICATED IN THE NAM AND GFS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT NOT ON A GROSS SCALE AS OFTEN OCCURS IN JULY AND AUGUST
WHEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.
THE TSTMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF
MONDAYS DEVELOPMENT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED THEDFORD SOUTH
AND EAST THRU CUSTER COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH. THE RUC INDICATED
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS AFTN ALSO WHICH APPEARS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY PROBLEM
WITH THE FORECAST IS H700MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHICH
COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL POPS WERE TIME
SHIFTED 3 HOURS FORWARD AS IT APPEARED STORMS WOULD DEVELOP FROM
21Z-03Z AND COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SLIGHT WARMING AT H700MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MIXING HEIGHT MONDAY AFTN AT KLBF WAS 715 MB AND 750 MB AT KUNR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WARM...SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES HEADLINE
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION INITIALLY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK...WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHOWING
SIGNS OF A BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH/ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AS A 587DM
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WELL INTO THE
80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY...PLACING THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
STILL WITHIN THE REGION...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-40% POPS ACROSS OUR
WEST /GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61/ AS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE WEEKEND...A NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE REMAINS TIMING AND
LOCATIONAL DIFFERENCES OF ANY PROJECTED BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THESE
STORMS...SO ATTM WON/T VENTURE AWAY FROM THE ALLBLEND PROCEDURE
WHICH RESPONDED WITH 40% POPS AND LESS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
UNTIL SUNDAY...SO SVR CHANCES ARE LOW INITIALLY...BUT MAY INCREASE
LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR MOST PLACES. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING OMEGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A PIECE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY....BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WEAK FLOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
SWITCHING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM KLBF
TO KANW AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAIA TO KIEN. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER EITHER TERMINAL IS LOW SO HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NY STATE, AND KEEP OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY,
BEFORE A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1256 PM UPDATE...
MORE INSTABILITY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED HAS DEVELOPED. MLCAPES
ARE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH A SLIM WEDGE OF 150-200 0-3KM SRH
VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF ONCOMING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. HAVE
UPGRADED THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS, AND UPDATED THE HWO
AND GRAPHICAL HWO PRODUCTS.
1041 AM UPDATE...
REORGANIZED POP GRIDS TODAY TO FOCUS LIKELY POPS MAINLY ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTHWARD, WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST TODAY. TAPERED OFF TO CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH.
CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW FLOW WIND
FIELD, SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT. MORE INTERESTING IS
THE 1.50+ PWAT. GIVEN MBE VELOCITIES OF 4 TO 8 KTS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME TRAINING. PEAK TIME FOR
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
640 AM UPDATE...
RISING DWPTS AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
MUCH AT ALL THIS MRNG ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LKS WITH SYR
STILL UP ARND 70F. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS COURTESY OF A SUBTLE
S/WV IN NW FLOW ARE HEADING TWD ALBANY AT THIS TIME BUT HAD TO
EXPAND 20 POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCNT FOR THESE THIS MRNG.
EXPECT A MORE PROMINENT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AFT 17Z IN
INCRSGLY MOIST FLOW AHD OF SLOW-MVG CLD FRONT.
PREV DISCO BLO...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES FROM THE VICINITY TO
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
AT KRME/KSYR ONLY INCLUDED UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDED MVFR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 21Z THEN
JUST MVFR RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 00Z.
OVERNIGHT, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW. AFTER 06Z
GENERALLY INCLUDED MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS. LIGHT SHOWER OR DRIZZLE MAY
ALSO OCCUR BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR/MVFR.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT THEN N/NE ON WEDNESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NY STATE, AND KEEP OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY,
BEFORE A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1256 PM UPDATE...
MORE INSTABILITY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED HAS DEVELOPED. MLCAPES
ARE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH A SLIM WEDGE OF 150-200 0-3KM SRH
VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF ONCOMING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. HAVE
UPGRADED THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS, AND UPDATED THE HWO
AND GRAPHICAL HWO PRODUCTS.
1041 AM UPDATE...
REORGANIZED POP GRIDS TODAY TO FOCUS LIKELY POPS MAINLY ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTHWARD, WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST TODAY. TAPERED OFF TO CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH.
CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW FLOW WIND
FIELD, SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT. MORE INTERESTING IS
THE 1.50+ PWAT. GIVEN MBE VELOCITIES OF 4 TO 8 KTS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME TRAINING. PEAK TIME FOR
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
640 AM UPDATE...
RISING DWPTS AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
MUCH AT ALL THIS MRNG ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LKS WITH SYR
STILL UP ARND 70F. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS COURTESY OF A SUBTLE
S/WV IN NW FLOW ARE HEADING TWD ALBANY AT THIS TIME BUT HAD TO
EXPAND 20 POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCNT FOR THESE THIS MRNG.
EXPECT A MORE PROMINENT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AFT 17Z IN
INCRSGLY MOIST FLOW AHD OF SLOW-MVG CLD FRONT.
PREV DISCO BLO...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES FROM THE VICINITY TO
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY BUT WITH SOME BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL
WNW TO ESE ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR
KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP. AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS
FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPING SCT TSRA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30
TSRA GROUPS INTO A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME LESS CONFIDENCE IN
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM OF THUNDER SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS IN FAVOR ON NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE IF NECESSARY. TONIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...IFR CIG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO...AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL TODAY MAY
DEVELOP FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT FROM LEFTOVER
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1215 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NY STATE, AND KEEP OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY,
BEFORE A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1041 AM UPDATE...
REORGANIZED POP GRIDS TODAY TO FOCUS LIKELY POPS MAINLY ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTHWARD, WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHEST TODAY. TAPERED OFF TO CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH.
CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW FLOW WIND
FIELD, SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT. MORE INTERESTING IS
THE 1.50+ PWAT. GIVEN MBE VELOCITIES OF 4 TO 8 KTS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME TRAINING. PEAK TIME FOR
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
640 AM UPDATE...
RISING DWPTS AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF
MUCH AT ALL THIS MRNG ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LKS WITH SYR
STILL UP ARND 70F. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS COURTESY OF A SUBTLE
S/WV IN NW FLOW ARE HEADING TWD ALBANY AT THIS TIME BUT HAD TO
EXPAND 20 POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCNT FOR THESE THIS MRNG.
EXPECT A MORE PROMINENT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AFT 17Z IN
INCRSGLY MOIST FLOW AHD OF SLOW-MVG CLD FRONT.
PREV DISCO BLO...
255 AM UPDATE...
A WK S/WV IS SPARKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES IN FINGER LKS REGION.
THESE SPRINKLES ARE FALLING OUT OF AN OVERCAST MID-DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO AMNT TO MUCH BFR 12Z. AFT 12Z, PW VALUES WL INCRS
TO > 1.30 INCHES WHICH IS APPCHG 2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YR. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT AS OF 06Z, WITH AMNTS < 1 INCH ACRS CWA WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 1.40 INCHES IN NWPA. EXPECT HIGHER PW VALUES TO HEAD EAST
AND INTO AREA THIS AFTN WITH AMNTS BTWN 2-3 SD ABV NORMAL APPCHG
1.60 INCHES.
SFC LOPRES SITTING ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SFC BNDRYS
EXTNDG EAST AND WEST FM CENTER. THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TDA AND ALL
MODELS BUT THE GFS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW CNTR OVR SERN ONTARIO
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO BACK INTO LWR MICHIGAN WHILE A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT WL
BE PUSHING IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTN/EVNG HRS AS STRONG HIPRES
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WHILE PW VALUES WL BE ANONYMOUSLY HIGH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGED TO BE
ARND 10KTS DRG THE DAY. EVEN THO WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT, STILL
SEEMS THAT THERE WL BE ENUF FLOW TO KEEP STORMS MVG TO PREVENT
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP DUE TO SATD ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND WL WORD AS SUCH IN HWO. CAPE VALUES WL BE TALL AND SKINNY
AND RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG, THUS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SMALL
HAIL. WITH VRY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WORK IN THIS AFTN,
LOOKING AT A LESSOR WIND THREAT THAN HAIL.
MAX TEMPS WL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF YDA`S VALUES AS EXTENSIVE
CLD CVR WL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WL ONLY REACH INTO THE
U70S/ARND 80 ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENCROACH FM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING THE CHC
FOR POPS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THRU MIDNIGHT AS K-INDICES RMN IN THE
30S AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFT 04Z AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DRIER DWPTS AND COOLER MINS EXPECTED ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES IN FM NEW ENGLAND THO LATEST NAM IS CERTAINLY
MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MED RANGE GUIDANCE SO HV GONE WITH A BLEND
OF NAM, GFS AND EURO FOR T/TD/WINDS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES WL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTN WED AS SFC TROF OVR CWA WL
CONT TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF LIFT WITH DIURNAL HTG, THO POPS WL ONLY
GET AS HIGH AS 50% DRG THE DAY. SFC WINDS WL BE FM THE EAST FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED
AFTN WHILE AREAS TWD THE FINGER LKS WL BE CLOSE TO NRML VALUES WITH
MAXES IN THE 70S.
HIPRES WL THEN BUILD IN FM NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NGT, ALLOWING SKIES
TO BEGIN TO CLR FM EAST TO WEST. COOLER TEMPS WL ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE AND ERLY FLOW WITH MRNG LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVR WRN
CATS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. ONLY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS EXPECTED
WED EVNG AS LACKLUSTER TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL FRCG
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES FROM THE VICINITY TO
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY BUT WITH SOME BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING SCT -TSRA AS COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AT SAME TIME WEAK WAVES TRAVEL
WNW TO ESE ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AS FRONT SAGS
SOUTH OF KSYR-KRME DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...FOR
KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP. AS FRONT STALLS...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. HAVE HANDLED INITIALLY VIA TEMPO GROUPS
FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPING SCT TSRA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN PROB30
TSRA GROUPS INTO A PORTION OF THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME LESS CONFIDENCE IN
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED IN THE FORM OF THUNDER SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS IN FAVOR ON NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE IF NECESSARY. TONIGHT...EXPECTING SEVERAL TERMINALS TO SLIP
INTO MVFR CIG AS SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...IFR CIG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO...AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL TODAY MAY
DEVELOP FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT FROM LEFTOVER
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYR-
KRME.
WED NGT/THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE TSRA FRI.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EARLY AFTN UPDATE FOCUSED MORE ON POPS. CAN SEE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM WRN GF COUNTY
THROUGH RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTY. 4KM WRF SHOWS SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PETER OUT AS IT MOVES INTO
MN...WITH A SECOND BAND MOVING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/RUC
ALL APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TOO WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS AND LEANING
TOWARD THE 4KM WRF SOLUTION...WITH MOST CONFIDENCE IN SERN ND
WHERE THERE IS THE MOST SOLAR AND CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER DVL REGION BUT REMOVED POPS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREV FCST AS BEST INSTABILITY (STILL NEEDS TO OVERCOME
CIN) WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERALL NOT A LOT OF FORCING BUT DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECLINE BY MID
EVENING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LATEST OBS SHOW SFC BOUNDARY BETWEEN MINOT AND RUGBY WITH MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEST OF BIS AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. LATEST RAP SHOWING INCREASING CIN OVER EASTERN ND AND
MODELED SOUNDINGS (12Z NAM) SHOW NEG ENERGY "DECREASING" TO ABOUT
NEG 13 J/KG BY 21Z...THEN INCREASING QUICKLY WITH LOWERING SUN
ANGLE. LIKE THE IDEA OF CHANCE POPS VS LIKELIES GIVEN THE CIN AND
WEAK LLJ FLOW THIS EVENING. WILL MAINLY ADDRESS TEMPS WITH THIS
FCST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
NO FORECAST CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TEMPERATURES AND PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MONITORING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NW FA
TO SEE HOW FAR EAST IT GETS BEFORE WEAKENING.
OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LI`S TO -4 AND
ML CAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES CONTINUE IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. APPEARS THAT A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE SOME MODEST UPPER SUPPORT. STRONGEST DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. OVERALL EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH BEST POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE DVL BASIN. LOW LEVEL JET NON-EXISTENT SO SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL
WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HOWEVER COLUMN
REMAINS WARM SO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS WHERE MID 80S AGAIN LIKELY. DEW POINTS LOOK A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
BOUNDARY WEAKENS BUT REMAINS OVER THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY UPPER FORCING SO ANY COVERAGE
OF LINGERING PCPN IN QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE. SAME STORY WITH
TEMPERATURES AS COLUMN REMAINS WARM A DEGREE OF SOLAR WILL IMPACT
HOW WARM WE TOP OUT AT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
LOW PRESSURE REORGANIZES OVER EASTERN MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW LATE.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER FA ON THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES INCREASE SETTING UP SOME HEALTHY CIN SO
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CAP TO GO SO BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE EVENING. BOUNDARY SLOW MOVING BEING PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW SO BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE DVL
BASIN...MAYBE FARTHER WEST.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO NORTH. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
AREA...HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...WITH FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO IT. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PWATS ABOVE 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN ADDITION TO
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY POSITION...WITH THE GFS HOLDING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE REGION FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SFC HIGH IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DO
HINT AT A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS FOR
TEMPS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SOME THUNDER MAINLY
AT KFAR/KDVL WITH VCSH AT KGFK.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
226 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL SWING ONSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE
AREA...AND MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREA OF SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS IN THE COAST RANGE WHERE THEY WERE GENERALLY PROGGED
TO FORM TODAY...AND EVEN SOME ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON THE RAP 40KM MODEL SUGGESTS THE CAP IS
JUST ABOUT ERODED OFFSHORE AND IS ERODING INLAND...AND THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY ACARS/AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KPDX WITH THE MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE AROUND 750 MB GETTING LESS PRONOUNCED...BUT STILL THERE.
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSH CLOSER TO SHORE...AND
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING WHICH IS AIDING THE CAP
EROSION...BUT THIS PROCESS IS TAKING SOME TIME INLAND GIVEN THE
BROKEN CLOUD COVER. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS CLOSER TO SHORE AND THE CAP EASES A BIT MORE.
MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL LOOK REALLY WEAK...BUT VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DRIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME 50DBZ ECHOES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO NEAR THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST TO POP AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT INLAND AND SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS BY TIME
THEY GET TO THE CASCADES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT VERY
HIGH...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING WHICH MAY
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL.
TONIGHT...THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CASCADES. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ONSHORE. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT...BE OVER
THE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALREADY BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INLAND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING....BUT
EITHER WAY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL AND SHOWERY. FREEZING LEVELS
LOWER TO ABOUT 5K FEET...AND THUS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 4500 FEET
AND A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SANTIAM AND
WILLAMETTE PASSES AND POSSIBLY AT GOVERNMENT CAMP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANY SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE STRONG
SOLAR INPUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 300 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM MENTION.
THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST BUT ITS TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA INTO THURSDAY...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...HANGING ON THE LONGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER THURSDAY. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM AS A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DIGS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE CASCADES
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR T-STORM
IN THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS ELSEWHERE REMAIN DRY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. KMD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME OF THE FCST MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH
COULD DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES LATE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL.
MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD MEAN OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CLOUDS AT THE COAST...POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEY HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH WELL INTO
THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND...RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER WEEK SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH IN ON MONDAY.
PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS STARTED TO PICK UP OVER THE COAST
RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW WA. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z WED...BUT MAY BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND IN SW WA DUE TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR MVFR ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND SW WA OVERNIGHT AS
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW MOVE INLAND OVER THOSE AREAS AND ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED.
STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
TERMINAL AND VICINITY THROUGH 03Z WED. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE TERMINAL.
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AFTER 12Z WED...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORNING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 18Z WED. WEISHAAR.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF BUOY
46404 AT 20Z. NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE LOW BY THIS EVENING. REMNANTS
FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR NEWPORT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED.
SURFACE GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLES
OVER THE NE PAC THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE THERMAL LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SPREADS TO THE S OREGON COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
25 KT GUSTS OVER THE S WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH WED...THEN BUMPING UP INTO THE 5
TO 7 FT RANGE. THE STRONGER N WIND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL CREATE
CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF CASCADE HEAD LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. WEISHAAR.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
909 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE
SOUTH OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN SWING ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE
AREA...AND MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION TODAY. AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OFFSHORE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE INLAND TODAY. PRETTY STOUT CAP ON THE MORNING SALEM
SOUNDING...BUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRIFTS CLOSER TO SHORE AND THE CAP SHOULD GET MUCH WEAKER IF NOT
ERODE. MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL LOOK PRETTY WEAK...BUT
VARIOUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DRIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS
OFF THE COAST ONSHORE LATER TODAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POP THIS
AFTERNOON FARTHER INLAND. TWO OF THESE HIGHER TIME RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING THE NSSL CAPS AND HRRR DEPICT SOME INFREQUENT 50 DBZ
ECHOES IN THEIR RADAR REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT IN THE CURRENT AREA OF
ISOLATED THUNDER COVERAGE...BUT ALSO SPREAD SOME FARTHER INLAND FROM
ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...WILL EXPAND THE ISOLATED THUNDER
COVERAGE IN THROUGH THE PORTLAND METRO AS THE CAP LOOKS TO ERODE
ENOUGH LATE TO POP AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT INLAND AND SHOULD JUST BE
SHOWERS BY TIME THEY GET TO THE CASCADES.
SREF CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN WAVERING
BETWEEN 20-40% OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND TYPICALLY 30% IS A DECENT
THRESHOLD...SO THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT FEEL WITH DECENT UPPER FORCING AND THE
CAP IN PLACE THAT THE ONES THAT DO POP MAY HAVE SOME BRIEF KICK TO
THEM. /KMD
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 47N 132W EARLY THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW AROUND 40 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO THESE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL...MOVES SOUTHWARD. AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
FORECAST
MARGINAL NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPE VALUES...BETWEEN 300-600 J/KG WITH
LOW QPF PRODUCING SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE COAST
RANGE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. HAVE GREATER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND INLAND0
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMAL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 4500 FEET AND A SLUSHY INCH OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES AND POSSIBLY
AT GOVERNMENT CAMP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR INPUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S AROUND -2C AND
CAPE 700-1000 J/KG...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE.
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE INTO CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT... A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN POSITIONED SQUARELY OVER THE PAC NW TROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING A THREAT
FOR DIURNAL DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
MODEL 850MB TEMPS INDICATE WARMER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN FOR FRI
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASING
MID CLOUDS OVER REGION TODAY. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT RESULTANT CIGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.
SMALL CHANCE...ABOUT 20 PERCENT...OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON 19Z THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CLOSEST TO THE LOW CENTER.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CIGS AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT...BUT LIKELY TO LOWER A BIT THIS
EVENING. SHOWER THREAT AFTER 19Z. A MINIMAL THREAT...10 PERCENT
CHANCE OR LESS...OF A THUNDERSTORM WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE TERMINAL
FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z WED. WEISHAAR.
&&
.MARINE...A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 300 NM W OF CAPE
DISAPPOINTMENT AT 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
SE TOWARD THE COASTLINE. NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE LOW BY 00Z WED.
SURFACE GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLES OVER
THE NE PAC THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE THERMAL LOW PRES FORMS
ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADS TO
THE S OREGON COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT GUSTS
OVER THE S WATERS BEGINNING THU.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGER N WIND
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL CREATE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS REACHING 7
TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS S OF NEWPORT BY FRI AND SAT. WEISHAAR.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID REMOVE THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS TO BE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANYTHING REACHES
THAT AREA. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
18Z TAFS DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS ON PRECIP/STORM CHANCES TODAY.
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ON THE HEELS OF LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY
AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHWEST ND AND NORTHWEST SD. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO
NORTHWEST SD BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH...OVERALL SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...BUT MODELS DO SHOW
VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST.
GENERAL AIR MASS LATER TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING. HI RES MODELS DO
SHOW SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAR
WEST TO CARRY THIS IS LOW. HAVE A FEELING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA IS GAME FOR SMALL/ISOLATED CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL/WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THE
CWA MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS
LEFT OVER ACROSS NORTHERN SD FROM THE ND MCS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
LATEST HRRR RUN COMING IN AND IT SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONGER CELLS
ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES AROUND 22Z. TEND TO HAVE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS AND
IT MAKES SENSE AS WELL GIVEN THE SFC FRONT PLACEMENT BY LATER
TODAY. SHEAR IS STRONGEST HERE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/WEAK
CAPPING EXIST AS WELL.
CAPPING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AREAS MAY
EVEN HIT 90 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES GIVE
OR TAKE...CONDITIONS WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ABOUT HEIGHT
FALLS...AND A FOCUSING SURFACE FRONT ADVECTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SCT AND EVEN LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE REGION. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL
PRETTY MARGINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THUS HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS MIGHT BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THEME. BY LATE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...ENOUGH THAT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IS SOMEWHAT LOW. THE ECMWF SUPPRESSES THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/SFC
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH VS THE GFS AND THUS IS COOLER WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND LESS RAINFALL. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND
TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. CIGS AND VISBY
WILL REMAIN VFR THOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE KMBG/KABR TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONVECTION MAKING TOWARD THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT COVERAGE. FORECAST ON TRACK IN TERMS OF THIS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. SOME TEMPS ADJUSTED UP AND
DOWN BASED ON CONVECTION/CLOUD LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE THERE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE REGION WITH PWATS FROM 1.2 TO 1.5.
CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA FROM ERN KY INTO THE MTN EMPIRE OF
SW VA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
WEAK VORT DEPICTED PER LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS OVER ERN WV WILL
TRACK SE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFICALLY IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO GOING TO TRY TO DEPICT AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY THE
LATEST HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE WRF THAT SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...THEN COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND AT TIMES NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
2-3 PM EVERYWHERE.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING WARMER IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER THE SW. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WILL
SHOWERS...AND STORMS THREAT...WILL SEE TEMPS GET AFFECTED SOME
AFTER 2-3 PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS THRU TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL CERTAINLY BE REDUCED.
WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD. BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT SLOWLY DROPS FROM NE TO SW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ALONG AND JUST TO THE WEST/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IS TYPICALLY FAVORED. RATHER WEAK FLOW COULD LEAD TO COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS AND/OR BACKBUILDING STORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HANGS THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO KEEP
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE THROUGH NW NC. ALL OTHER MODELS
PLUNGE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FURTHER SOUTH WHICH SHUTS OFF STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE TOUGH...HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON WHICH CITIES GET RAIN...AND THEN ON FRIDAY...HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS PENETRATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS INDICATING GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY LATE FRI...WITH VERY DRY AIR POISED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA FRI WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY WEST OF I-77 INTO THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED POPS FROM THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT
STILL SOME SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE PRESENT.
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS FOR MON-TUE FROM THE ALLEGHANYS WESTWARD.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR OFFSETTING THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND
850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +12C BACK TOWARD +16C BY MON/TUE. STILL NO
SIGNS OF ANY APPRECIABLE HOT WEATHER. MORNING TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND OWING LARGELY TO THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME VERY PLEASANT MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO STICK AROUND INTO EARLY
EVENING/01Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOOKS LIKELY THAT DAN/LWB WILL GET
A PERIOD OF TSRA BETWEEN 19-21Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS...ALTHOUGH BLF CIGS STAYING MVFR TO EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE ISSUE WILL BE IF MID/HIGH CLOUDS IMPACT FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THINK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THERE...SO ONLY
TAKING LWB/BCB/LYH/DAN TO LOW END MVFR/HIGH END IFR LATE TONIGHT.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THAT LOWER VSBYS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOG GOING TO LIFT AFTER 12Z...TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCT/BKN
LOWER CU/SC INTO BLF/LWB...WHERE NEXT THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES
AFTER 14Z....BUT COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE THEM IN THE
PREDOMINATE GROUP...JUST VCTS.
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES SUCH AS
LWB/BCB/LYH. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA IS SHORTWAVE THAT IS VERY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE BEING LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT. THE
AREA SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS AND WAUTOMA ARE BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE RAIN LIFTED OFF TO THEIR
NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MANITOWOC
LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR RESIDES OVER THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE THE
WEAK COOL FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT THINK THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX VALLEY THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION WILL BE SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND THE REST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASING CLOUD
TREND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT.
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DEPART CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM
A HUDSON BAY HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
KEEPS HIGHS COMPARATIVELY COOLER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL
PROVIDE VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF MAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR THE START OF JUNE.
UPPER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COOLER
READINGS ALONG LAKE MICH AND THE BAY WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY
WIND. THE DRIER AIR MASS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME
LARGE RANGES IN MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...24 HOUR TRENDS
HAVE INDICATED A SLOW DOWN. THE GEM WAS THE QUICKEST WITH
PRODUCING SOME QPF OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE INCLUDING PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GEM WERE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. THESE TIMING ISSUES MAGNIFY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
TOWARD MONDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS SUPPORTS MORE PRECIPITATION.
BLEND OF THE RUNS THEN INDICATE THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AGAIN
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MANITOWOC LINE. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE THE SHOWERS OCCUR. THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING GIVEN EXTRA PUSH IN ERN WI DUE TO CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AND THE COLDER LAKE WATERS. BOUNDARY LINED UP MORE OR LESS
FROM THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA EXTENDING NW TOWARDS THE DELLS. VERY
LITTLE WIND UPSTAIRS WITH UPPER FLOW NOT DOING MUCH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND NEITHER IS 0-6KM SHEAR. PLENTY OF WATER
IN THE COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 PER SPC
MESO PAGE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE LIGHT AND CURVED SO MAIN CONCERN IS POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 4KM SPC WRF SUGGESTING A
FAIRLY RAPID DROPOFF IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WHILE THE HRRR IS LENDING
CREDENCE TO THE WEAK SUPPORT FROM RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IN SRN MN. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS STORMS GOING MUCH LATER IN THE EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES LOSS OF HEATING AND A GRADUAL
SOUTHWESTWARD SINKING OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN A LOWERING OF POPS AND
TRENDING THE POPS SW WITH TIME. HOWEVER GIVEN HELP OF SOME WEAK PIVA INTO
WRN WI ASSOC WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO LINGER POPS LONGER THAN
MY ORIGINAL THOUGHTS. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRIER AIR STARTING
TO WORK IN FROM THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES LINGER PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LINGERING FORCING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WILL CARRY SOME POPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THEN GO DRY IN THE
AFTERNOON CWA WIDE WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING
HIGH TAKING HOLD.
.WEDENSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A VERY QUIET...VERY PLEASANT STRETCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES KEEPING A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LAKE MICHIGAN COOLING MACHINE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY HIT THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS AT
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THOSE LOWS
WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE OF COURSE.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO TAKES SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES.
IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT/TROF TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL IN THE AREA
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES
AND THE TIMING IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS/ECMWF.
BUT...THE SIMILAR MESSAGE IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITHIN A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. 4KM WRF AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS. WILL
LINGER SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HELP FROM WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACRS MN/IA. SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT A DRYER DAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1231 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP POPS DOWN UNTIL 3 PM FOR MOST AREAS
WHERE WE HAD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LATER GETTING STARTED TODAY WITH WARMER
MIDLEVEL TEMPS. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE TOWERS
GOING UP OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE SNOWY RANGE
AROUND ENCAMPMENT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STARTING AROUND HARRIS
PARK. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE FAIRLY CLEAR MOST ZONES.
WITH HIGH INSOLATION...RELATIVELY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS WE ARE SEEING TEMPS RISE A LITTLE QUICKER TODAY SO
BUMPED WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ZONES UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
OTHER PARAMETERS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS AM. TRANQUIL WEATHER HAS BEEN THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. SAW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP
AROUND CYS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM
ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH REPORTED FROM THAT ACTIVITY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS IN THE TEENS C. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR AFTN CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL MOST
LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY. RESULTING LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD INITIATE A
FEW TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. LIGHT QPF IS
BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF...AND A FEW CELLS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE HRRR BY 20Z. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PLAINS...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHERE INHIBITION
WILL BE WEAKEST.
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WED. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES
INCREASE TO AROUND 580 DM AMID EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE WITH MUCH OF
THE CWA DIRECTLY UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTING MID 90S FOR CDR...WHILE THE ECM IS COOLER. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE PATTERN...CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS FOR FCST HIGHS
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR WED SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...CLOSER TO TO THE MIDLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES. PATTERN
REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THU WITH TSTM CHANCES INCREASING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND ALLOWS A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CWA WITH REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM HURRICANE AMANDA. AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS AN INCREASED
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK WILL PULL
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
AMANDA WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE
COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS ANY RAINFALL WILL ENHANCE SNOWMELT WHILE ALSO ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE RIVERS. SEE THE HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF LEFTOVER AMANDA MOISTURE WILL BE CRITICAL.
SHOULD THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THE CHANCES FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED. BUT SHOULD MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THAT WOULD BE
A DIFFERENT STORY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS PUSHES THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING OVER THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO PERIODICAL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. LIKE USUAL THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE LOCATIONS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
NORTH...MAKING FOR A VERY WARM TO DOWN RIGHT HOT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF PLACES THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE WYOMING COLORADO BORDER...
WHICH WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE
BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN COOL AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AND HERE
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT KCYS AND KRWL. ADDED VCTS WORDING INTO
TAFS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. CONVECTION TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FUELS
ARE STILL IN GREEN UP AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND DRIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RH VALUES COULD FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 14K AND 15K
FEET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THIS WEEK. FORECAST POINTS AND
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY RISEN TO FLOOD
STAGE ARE LIKELY TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENCAMPMENT RIVER AT ENCAMPMENT...THE LITTLE
SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY...AND THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SINCLAIR AND
SARATOGA. WE WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...NOW EXPIRING EARLY WED EVENING AS THE SNOW MELT
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE STOPPING ANYTIME SOON. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FOR
PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE DEVELOPING FLOOD THREAT...REFER
TO FFACYS. WARNING INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1053 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS AM. TRANQUIL WEATHER HAS BEEN THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. SAW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP
AROUND CYS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM
ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH REPORTED FROM THAT ACTIVITY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS IN THE TEENS C. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR AFTN CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL MOST
LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY. RESULTING LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD INITIATE A
FEW TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. LIGHT QPF IS
BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF...AND A FEW CELLS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE HRRR BY 20Z. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PLAINS...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHERE INHIBITION
WILL BE WEAKEST.
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WED. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES
INCREASE TO AROUND 580 DM AMID EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE WITH MUCH OF
THE CWA DIRECTLY UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTING MID 90S FOR CDR...WHILE THE ECM IS COOLER. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE PATTERN...CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS FOR FCST HIGHS
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR WED SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...CLOSER TO TO THE MIDLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES. PATTERN
REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THU WITH TSTM CHANCES INCREASING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND ALLOWS A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CWA WITH REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM HURRICANE AMANDA. AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS AN INCREASED
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK WILL PULL
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
AMANDA WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE
COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS ANY RAINFALL WILL ENHANCE SNOWMELT WHILE ALSO ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE RIVERS. SEE THE HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF LEFTOVER AMANDA MOISTURE WILL BE CRITICAL.
SHOULD THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THE CHANCES FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED. BUT SHOULD MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THAT WOULD BE
A DIFFERENT STORY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS PUSHES THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING OVER THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO PERIODICAL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. LIKE USUAL THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS. ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE LOCATIONS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
NORTH...MAKING FOR A VERY WARM TO DOWN RIGHT HOT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF PLACES THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE WYOMING COLORADO BORDER...
WHICH WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE
BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN COOL AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AND HERE
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT KCYS AND KRWL. ADDED VCTS WORDING INTO
TAFS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. CONVECTION TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FUELS
ARE STILL IN GREEN UP AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND DRIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RH VALUES COULD FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014
EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 14K AND 15K
FEET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THIS WEEK. FORECAST POINTS AND
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY RISEN TO FLOOD
STAGE ARE LIKELY TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENCAMPMENT RIVER AT ENCAMPMENT...THE LITTLE
SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY...AND THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SINCLAIR AND
SARATOGA. WE WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...NOW EXPIRING EARLY WED EVENING AS THE SNOW MELT
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE STOPPING ANYTIME SOON. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FOR
PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE DEVELOPING FLOOD THREAT...REFER
TO FFACYS. WARNING INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER