Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/26/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER
NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FURTHER EAST THEREAFTER. AS A RESULT
THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN A WEAK TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER
THOUGHT. HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY E OF TUCSON WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
ENE ACROSS ERN AZ. WILL SEE A LULL AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TO SAY ABOUT 2 AM BEFORE A DISTURBANCE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC
INCLUDING THE 18Z NAM ARE DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PINAL
AND GRAHAM COUNTY WITH TUCSON ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES.
UPPER LOW NEAR 4 CORNERS SUNDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS NE
AND E-CENTRAL AZ. ONCE AGAIN THE WHITES WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AREA DRIES OUT ON MONDAY THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE WHITES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 2-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING ON MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE OVER THE STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING THE RETURN OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER NEW MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THESE TWO DAYS WITH
RESPECTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/MOISTURE VALUES
MOVING IN FROM THE S. OPERATIONAL GFS IS WETTER THAN OPERATIONAL
ECMWF. GFS/NOGAPS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALSO WETTER THAN ECMWF.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THESE TWO DAYS...I WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF SHOWERS TO SHOW UP IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO
PROBLEMATIC ON THURSDAY. CASE IN POINT FOR TUCSON THE GFS BIAS
CORRECTED GOING WITH A HIGH OF 83...ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED SHOWING 93
WHILE CANADIAN BIAS CORRECTED SHOWING 100. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOWERED
THURSDAY HIGHS ONE DEGREE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY FROM
KTUS EWD AND NEAR MTNS THRU ABOUT 25/01Z WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -TSRA.
THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
SOME GUSTY WINDS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY 10-12K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS NEAR 25K FT AGL THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS WLY 10-15 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS BCMG TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFTER 25/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
STORMS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL STILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS TO BE MET BRIEFLY MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR SAFFORD.
OTHERWISE...PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
935 AM MST SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE CURRENT LOCATION NOW OVER
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AS OF 9 AM MST AND EXPECTING THIS TO EXPAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCALED BACK DUE TO THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ACTIVITY
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX AS SUBSIDENCE FURTHER WEST WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS AREAS THAT SAW STORMS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. OUR CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE METRO
PHOENIX AREA SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK. MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY
LIMITED...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THERE WILL BE A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TODAY...BUT WITH THE LACK
OF STRONG INSTABILITY...MOST STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
SUFFICIENT HEIGHTS. THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER ANY STORMS
WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A
NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY COULD DRIFT INTO THE PHOENIX AREA BEFORE DYING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ERSTWHILE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT VORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND
WILL BE CONCENTRATED WELL TO OUR EAST. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN-BASED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ.
LOCAL HI-RESOLUTION WRFS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OTHER GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALSO NOT AS PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST POPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT FOR THE
PHOENIX AREA BUT REMAIN AS HIGH AS 35 PERCENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
GILA COUNTY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO SUNDAY.
IN ITS WAKE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS EASTERN
AZ. HOWEVER...FURTHER WEST A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND FORECAST POPS WERE LOWERED
TO AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR THE PHOENIX AREA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
AROUND 106 DEGREES FOR PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. LATE NEXT
WEEK...GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS AZ INTO
NM TODAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
PERSIST SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS FILLING
IN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALL AOA 12KFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WARRANTS
KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN N AND E OF
PHOENIX. CURRENTLY HAVE NO MENTION...PREVAILING OR VICINITY...IN THE
12Z TAFS FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL. HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT MTN
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...SO CHANCES OF ANYTHING ON THE
FRINGES OF THE METRO AREA SHOULD BE NEAR OR AFTER 25/00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 KT AND BLOWING DUST/REDUCED VISIBILITY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX THROUGH MONDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT LIKELY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAINING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS GREATLY DROP BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW FULLY EXITS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP SURFACE CONDITIONS DRY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH MOSTLY FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY CALM...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DOWN OVER THE
WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ERSTWHILE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT VORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND
WILL BE CONCENTRATED WELL TO OUR EAST. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN-BASED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ.
LOCAL HI-RESOLUTION WRFS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OTHER GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALSO NOT AS PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST POPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT FOR THE
PHOENIX AREA BUT REMAIN AS HIGH AS 35 PERCENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
GILA COUNTY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO SUNDAY.
IN ITS WAKE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS EASTERN
AZ. HOWEVER...FURTHER WEST A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND FORECAST POPS WERE LOWERED
TO AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR THE PHOENIX AREA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
AROUND 106 DEGREES FOR PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. LATE NEXT
WEEK...GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS AZ INTO
NM TODAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
PERSIST SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS FILLING
IN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALL AOA 12KFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WARRANTS
KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN N AND E OF
PHOENIX. CURRENTLY HAVE NO MENTION...PREVAILING OR VICINITY...IN THE
12Z TAFS FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL. HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT MTN
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...SO CHANCES OF ANYTHING ON THE
FRINGES OF THE METRO AREA SHOULD BE NEAR OR AFTER 25/00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 40 KT AND BLOWING DUST/REDUCED VISIBILITY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX THROUGH MONDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT LIKELY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAINING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS GREATLY DROP BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW FULLY EXITS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP SURFACE CONDITIONS DRY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH MOSTLY FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY CALM...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DOWN OVER THE
WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ERSTWHILE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT VORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND
WILL BE CONCENTRATED WELL TO OUR EAST. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN-BASED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ.
LOCAL HI-RESOLUTION WRFS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY MOST OTHER GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE ALSO NOT AS PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST POPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT FOR THE
PHOENIX AREA BUT REMAIN AS HIGH AS 35 PERCENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
GILA COUNTY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO SUNDAY.
IN ITS WAKE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS EASTERN
AZ. HOWEVER...FURTHER WEST A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND FORECAST POPS WERE LOWERED
TO AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR THE PHOENIX AREA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
AROUND 106 DEGREES FOR PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. LATE NEXT
WEEK...GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS AZ INTO NM DURING THE
PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS AOA 10KFT WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
BECOMING FEW TO SCT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME
LOCAL GUSTINESS REMAINS DUE TO EARLIER DECAYING OUTFLOWS...BUT
EXPECT SURFACE WINDS 10-12KT TO DIMINISH BY 07Z...AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 19Z SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WARRANTS
KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S-CENTRAL AZ
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN N AND E
OF PHOENIX. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 KT AND BLOWING DUST/REDUCED VISIBILITY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX THROUGH MONDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT LIKELY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAINING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS GREATLY DROP BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN PLACE WITH WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CALM...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
400 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
INCREASED QUICKLY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ERODING STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST. A SEPARATE STRATUS FIELD IS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS VIEWING OF THE CAMELOPARDALID
METEOR SHOWER HAVE BEEN OBSCURED BY A LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 19C AT OAK BY 00Z YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING A PEAK ON SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ONSHORE KEEPING THE HEAT FROM GETTING CLOSE TO THE
COAST HOWEVER. THE LATEST NAM HAS THE SFO-SAC PRESSURE GRADIENT UP
TO 5 MB BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND GUSTY WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS THE WARMING TREND WILL MOSTLY BE FELT INLAND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S IN COASTAL AREAS TO MID 90S
INLAND TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. THE INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
SERVE TO ERODE STRATUS AWAY FROM THE COAST HOWEVER LEADING TO
INCREASED SUNSHINE IN COASTAL AREAS.
A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD AND THE MARINE LAYER MIXED. IN THE EXTENDED BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A CLOSED LOW SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEKEND. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES IT COULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
PUSHED STRATUS FIELD SOUTH...WITH LOW CLOUDS ONLY IMPACTING THE
MONTEREY BAY. CURRENT FORECAST MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE AREA...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS MAY PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM IN
THE NORTH BAY...SO IT WAS COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL FORM ALONG SAN MATEO COAST...HOWEVER A
UNIFORM FIELD IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE SF BAY. THE HRRR WAS THE
MAIN MODELS USED FOR THE FORECAST AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH
SEEMED TO HAVE A GRASP ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER 22Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR AROUND
10Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELLS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1032 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND BUT NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOOTS EASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PEAKING ON SUNDAY AROUND 20 DEGREES
C. MEANWHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH HEIGHTS ALSO
PEAKING ON SUNDAY AT AROUND 585 DAM. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE 80S TO MID 90S INLAND. THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS MAY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SEE WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER BEFORE THE UPPER CLOUDS MOVED IN
AND HAMPERED OUR VIEW WE SAW SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE STRATUS
DECK ALONG THE COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION WHICH SHOWS STRATUS
RAPIDLY ERODING FROM THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS REMAINING ONLY IN THE MONTEREY BAY. THE HRRR FORECAST
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO
STRATUS INTRUSION OVER THE NORTH BAY. WITH THE LATE ONSET OF THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND THE COMPRESSION OF THE MARINE LAYER
DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WE ANTICIPATE LESS INLAND STRATUS
INTRUSION THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASED
GRADIENT/FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER AND
KEEP CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EITHER WAY...MEMORIAL
DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE PLEASANT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ALONG THE
COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INLAND. IN OTHER
WORDS...JUST A TAD COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
MUCH OF THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
MIXED OUT. MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN...BUT THE TROUGH AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
PUSHED STRATUS FIELD SOUTH...WITH LOW CLOUDS ONLY IMPACTING THE
MONTEREY BAY. CURRENT FORECAST MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE AREA...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS MAY PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM IN
THE NORTH BAY...SO IT WAS COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL FORM ALONG SAN MATEO COAST...HOWEVER A
UNIFORM FIELD IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE SF BAY. THE HRRR WAS THE
MAIN MODELS USED FOR THE FORECAST AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH
SEEMED TO HAVE A GRASP ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER 22Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR AROUND
10Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELLS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION RATHER SPARSE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AREA OF MORE VIGOROUS TSRA WASN`T TOO FAR
AWAY OVER NRN NM. AIR MASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORMS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN
KPUX RADAR DATA MAY CONVERGE ACROSS PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTIES 21Z-
23Z...WHICH COULD FORCE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THE IDEA OF INCREASING
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WANE BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WITH MODELS HINTING AT OVERNIGHT
MCS ACROSS NRN NM...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING DURING THE
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...AS SOME
SORT OF WEAKENING MCS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NERN NM/TX PANH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF
MCS...MUCH OF AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME
FAIRLY HEALTHY SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT TSRA CHANCES. STILL...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY COVERING
MOST OF THE AREA...TOUGH TO RULE OUT STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE MAY END UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW
COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW
ONCE AGAIN...AS DEEPER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WIND SHEAR REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OVER WRN TX. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED...WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE GFS...NAM AND EC MODELS ALL SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AZ IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES ON TUE. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE LOW MEANS THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS...AND WHERE AND WHEN THE DRY SLOT WILL
HAPPEN...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...BLANKETED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND WENT WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ALL TIMES. MODELS INDICATE THE
DRY SLOT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO LESSENED SKY COVER
AND LOWERED POPS THERE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN BANDS AND EXACT AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT ARE IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 F FOR THE PLAINS EACH
DAY...THOUGH ONGOING MAX TEMP FOR TUE WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO BE
COOLED. AREA BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY EACH DAY
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND OUT OF COLORADO BY
TUE EVE...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS PAINTS A VERY WET PICTURE...WHILE
THE EC IS LEANING TOWARDS A MORE PROBABLE SOLUTION OF DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...AMENDED THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE POP GRIDS TO SHOW ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
POPS OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS EACH AFTN AND EVE...THEN DRY
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE FORECAST...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ROUND OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING. STILL SOME MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A NEW ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING AFTER 17Z TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN...1 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALL POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT MORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO LEAN HEAVILY ON HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A GREAT
JOB WITH W-E LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING S THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...
WHICH PUSHES THROUGH SW NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY
WEAKENING AS IT REACHES MASS PIKE CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM...BEFORE
POSSIBLY REACHING S COAST AROUND 8 PM AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY FIRE ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND BUT SHOULD BE
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
NOT MUCH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH ONLY FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML
CAPE...CERTAINLY BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR W ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WHICH SHOULD BE CASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
IS MINIMAL BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT CONSIDERING
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/. SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE
SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS THIS LINE DROPS S...BUT DO EXPECT IT
TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES MASS PIKE CORRIDOR AND POINTS S.
ENDED UP BEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING ON CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
PARTS OF S COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT LEAVING GOOD AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND AREA ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO
40S/50S WHICH MATCHES MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG STORMS SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ***
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP SUN AS
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN NW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH SB CAPES MAINLY UNDER
1000 J/KG...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ WILL YIELD STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THAT COMBINED WITH DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF
30-35KT MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON. FOCUS MAY END UP BEING NEAR SEA
BREEZE FRONT WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOCATIONS NEAR I-495 CORRIDOR SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR. CONVECTION MAY END UP DEVELOPING LATE
SUN MORNING IN FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT AM
MORE CONFIDENT MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 70S AWAY FROM COAST...WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN 60S.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MEANS PROCESS MAY BE SLOWER THAN WHAT
IS NORMALLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG EACH COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY EACH TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND ARRIVES TUESDAY...THE SECOND ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS...THE PATTERN INDICATES
SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY... WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN NH. THE FOCUS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ACROSS MAINE-NH-
VT...WITH MOST OF ANY SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN NH AND
NORTHEAST MASS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR HEATING.
MIXING LEVELS WILL REACH AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 12-14C...SO MAX TEMPS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL REACH 20-25 KNOTS...SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THAT RANGE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR TIMING WITH FROPA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER THE EXACT TIMING...THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STABILITY
IS MARGINAL WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE 6-6.5C/KM AND TOTALS UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. COULD BE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO
SIGNS OF AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE CHANGE AFTER FROPA AS WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE PRIOR TO FROPA AND THE
GREATEST COOLING AFTER PASSAGE WILL BE IN EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED WARMEST MAX TEMPS IN THE CT VALLEY WITH VALUES NEAR
80...AND VALUES 70-75 IN EASTERN MASS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER
DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
OVERVIEW...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND AN AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER AREA OF
VORTICITY THAN THE GFS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH SEEM TO FORCE THE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND TO HANDLE THIS EXCEPT FOR THE CMC WHICH
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
THURSDAY...SOME ENERGY AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD ALLOWS FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THAT IS AS FAR
AS THEY COME DURING THE DAY. HAVE STILL ALLOWED FOR CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY ON AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY INDEXES SHOW A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH THE TOTAL OF TOTALS MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 50 WITH PATCHES OF 50 AROUND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE DAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEARING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP S
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...PROBABLY REACHING AS FAR
AS KBAF-KORH-KBOS BEFORE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BERKSHIRES THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR
CIGS AOA 050 THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED SUN WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
NEAR KASH-KBED-KTAN CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. ACTIVITY SUBSIDES SUN EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE 21Z-23Z AS BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DROPS S. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE SUN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLD TSTM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER W.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS POSTED ON NANTUCKET SOUND FOR LINGERING 25KT GUSTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND ON OUTER WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
BAND OF SHOWERS DROPS S ACROSS WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MAINLY ON E MA WATERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUN AFTERNOON ON NEAR SHORE
WATERS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35KT GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED FARTHER INLAND NEAR SEA BREEZE
FRONT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS SUN NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-6
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THESE WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB/HR
AVIATION...WTB/JWD/HR
MARINE...WTB/JWD/HR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD AFFECT MORE OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. SUMMER LIKE WARMTH ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
HRRR CONTINUES TO DO BEST JOB WITH RESPECT TO RADAR TRENDS...
SHOWING W-E LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING S FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD REACH DOWN TO MASS PIKE CORRIDOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MODEL IS ALSO DOING WELL WITH N-S BAND
OF CONVECTION OVER E NY WHICH MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MEAGER WITH SB CAPES ON ORDER OF 500
J/KG OR SO AND LARGER SCALE LIFT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAS HELPED ACTIVITY DEVELOP. STRONGER CELLS COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
CLOSER TO COAST...13KM RAP WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING CLEARING OVER
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL WORK INTO SE MA BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM NW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
** FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ***
TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BESIDES A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.
OVERALL...THINK WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN ABOVE
PARAMETERS...FEEL A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN WE LIKE TO SEE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.
SOMETIMES THOSE COLD POOLS ALOFT CAN OVER PERFORM...SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. FINALLY...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IF STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM DAY MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON TUE
* ANY TSTMS LATE MON TO TUE PERIOD COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVERVIEW...OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE S OR SE OF NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
WEEK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY THAN LATE SPRING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUE BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. NW FLOW ALOFT REST OF WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AFTER TUE...RISK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR ON COOL
SIDE. H50 TEMPS TURN COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
DETAILS...
MON...W OR EVEN WNW OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND 13C IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS PROBABLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF AREA. EVEN THE CAPE SHOULD BE WARM WITH THIS FLOW. OPTED TO GO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS. BELIEVE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF TSTMS ALONG AND NE OF A MHT-BVY LINE LATE IN THE DAY AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINE.
WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MON NIGHT...SOME RISK OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NE OF A
ORE-ORH-PYM-CQX LINE. ALTHOUGH NOT A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NOT DROPPING BELOW THE 60S.
TUE...THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING DAY WITH DRAMATIC TEMP
CHANGES SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...THINKING TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
AT LEAST MID 70S E MA AND RI BEFORE CRASHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MAY SEE DRAMATIC TEMP DROP IN
EASTERN MA AND RI FROM MID/UPPER 70S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPS MAY REACH MID/UPPER 80S CT VALLEY OF NH...MA
AND CT BEFORE DROPPING LATE IN THE DAY...WARMEST GREATER HARTFORD
AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH DEPENDENT UPON COLD FRONT TIMING. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR
50...K INDEX NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30...SHOWALTERS NEAR 0 AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ALL POINT TO CHANCE TSTMS AND
POTENTIALLY RISK OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR
OF 40-45 KT. WILL INDICATE CHANCE TSTMS GIVEN MODEL
SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT IN EASTERN MA.
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAP MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST GENERALLY IN MID 60S WITH LOW/MID 70S CT VALLEY REGION.
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
NO APPARENT FORCING.
FRI...SOME SUGGESTION OF COOLING 500 MB TEMPS WHICH COULD LEAD TO CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP S
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...PROBABLY REACHING AS FAR
AS KBAF-KORH-KBOS BEFORE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BERKSHIRES THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR
CIGS AOA 050 THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED SUN WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
NEAR KASH-KBED-KTAN CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. ACTIVITY SUBSIDES SUN EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE 21Z-23Z AS BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DROPS S. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE SUN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLD TSTM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER W.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MAINLY VFR WEST AND MVFR CIGS EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
NANTUCKET SOUND ADDED BACK TO SCA FOR 25KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR NANTUCKET. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
MIXING AND WAS SUPPORTING 25-30KT GUSTS AT NANTUCKET AIRPORT.
GUSTS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALSO EXTENDED SCA
FOR OUTER WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAKE
AWHILE LONGER TO SUBSIDE AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF ANY TSTMS LATE MON/MON NIGHT OVER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY NORTH
OF PYM AND PVC. MORE SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 3 TO 5 FT WIND WAVES BRIEFLY
BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS TO BE BELOW OR DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD AFFECT MORE OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. SUMMER LIKE WARMTH ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
HRRR CONTINUES TO DO BEST JOB WITH RESPECT TO RADAR TRENDS...
SHOWING W-E LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING S FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHICH SHOULD REACH DOWN TO MASS PIKE CORRIDOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MODEL IS ALSO DOING WELL WITH N-S BAND
OF CONVECTION OVER E NY WHICH MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MEAGER WITH SB CAPES ON ORDER OF 500
J/KG OR SO AND LARGER SCALE LIFT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAS HELPED ACTIVITY DEVELOP. STRONGER CELLS COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
CLOSER TO COAST...13KM RAP WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING CLEARING OVER
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL WORK INTO SE MA BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM NW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
** FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ***
TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BESIDES A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.
OVERALL...THINK WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN ABOVE
PARAMETERS...FEEL A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN WE LIKE TO SEE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.
SOMETIMES THOSE COLD POOLS ALOFT CAN OVER PERFORM...SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. FINALLY...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IF STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM DAY MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON TUE
* ANY TSTMS LATE MON TO TUE PERIOD COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVERVIEW...OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE S OR SE OF NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
WEEK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY THAN LATE SPRING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUE BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. NW FLOW ALOFT REST OF WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AFTER TUE...RISK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR ON COOL
SIDE. H50 TEMPS TURN COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
DETAILS...
MON...W OR EVEN WNW OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND 13C IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS PROBABLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF AREA. EVEN THE CAPE SHOULD BE WARM WITH THIS FLOW. OPTED TO GO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS. BELIEVE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF TSTMS ALONG AND NE OF A MHT-BVY LINE LATE IN THE DAY AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINE.
WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MON NIGHT...SOME RISK OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NE OF A
ORE-ORH-PYM-CQX LINE. ALTHOUGH NOT A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NOT DROPPING BELOW THE 60S.
TUE...THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING DAY WITH DRAMATIC TEMP
CHANGES SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...THINKING TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
AT LEAST MID 70S E MA AND RI BEFORE CRASHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MAY SEE DRAMATIC TEMP DROP IN
EASTERN MA AND RI FROM MID/UPPER 70S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPS MAY REACH MID/UPPER 80S CT VALLEY OF NH...MA
AND CT BEFORE DROPPING LATE IN THE DAY...WARMEST GREATER HARTFORD
AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH DEPENDENT UPON COLD FRONT TIMING. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR
50...K INDEX NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30...SHOWALTERS NEAR 0 AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ALL POINT TO CHANCE TSTMS AND
POTENTIALLY RISK OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR
OF 40-45 KT. WILL INDICATE CHANCE TSTMS GIVEN MODEL
SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT IN EASTERN MA.
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAP MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST GENERALLY IN MID 60S WITH LOW/MID 70S CT VALLEY REGION.
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
NO APPARENT FORCING.
FRI...SOME SUGGESTION OF COOLING 500 MB TEMPS WHICH COULD LEAD TO CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP S
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...PROBABLY REACHING AS FAR
AS KBAF-KORH-KBOS BEFORE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BERKSHIRES THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR
CIGS AOA 050 THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED SUN WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
NEAR KASH-KBED-KTAN CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. ACTIVITY SUBSIDES SUN EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE 21Z-23Z AS BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DROPS S. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE SUN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLD TSTM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER W.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MAINLY VFR WEST AND MVFR CIGS EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
NE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF WATERS.
DROPPED SCA ON NANTUCKET SOUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN IT FARTHER
OFFSHORE FOR COMBINATION OF 25KT WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF ANY TSTMS LATE MON/MON NIGHT OVER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY NORTH
OF PYM AND PVC. MORE SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 3 TO 5 FT WIND WAVES BRIEFLY
BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS TO BE BELOW OR DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1132 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD AFFECT MORE OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. SUMMER LIKE WARMTH ON MEMORIAL DAY
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE HRRR IS ON TO SOMETHING WITH ITS DEPICTION OF W-E BAND
OF CONVECTION DROPPING S FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC. 12Z NAM STILL FOCUSES ON WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS TO
GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS WOULD THINK MUCH OF REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MEAGER WITH SB CAPES ON ORDER OF 500
J/KG OR SO AND LARGER SCALE LIFT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEARING HAS BEEN IN AND OUT ALONG S COAST AND SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THIS MAY BE CASE FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
CLEARING PERHAPS WORKING INTO MORE OF SE MA. 13KM RAP HAS DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS SO MODIFIED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
NO OTHER CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
** FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ***
TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BESIDES A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.
OVERALL...THINK WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN ABOVE
PARAMETERS...FEEL A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN WE LIKE TO SEE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.
SOMETIMES THOSE COLD POOLS ALOFT CAN OVER PERFORM...SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. FINALLY...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IF STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM DAY MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON TUE
* ANY TSTMS LATE MON TO TUE PERIOD COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVERVIEW...OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE S OR SE OF NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
WEEK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY THAN LATE SPRING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUE BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. NW FLOW ALOFT REST OF WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AFTER TUE...RISK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR ON COOL
SIDE. H50 TEMPS TURN COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
DETAILS...
MON...W OR EVEN WNW OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND 13C IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS PROBABLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF AREA. EVEN THE CAPE SHOULD BE WARM WITH THIS FLOW. OPTED TO GO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS. BELIEVE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF TSTMS ALONG AND NE OF A MHT-BVY LINE LATE IN THE DAY AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINE.
WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MON NIGHT...SOME RISK OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NE OF A
ORE-ORH-PYM-CQX LINE. ALTHOUGH NOT A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NOT DROPPING BELOW THE 60S.
TUE...THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING DAY WITH DRAMATIC TEMP
CHANGES SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...THINKING TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
AT LEAST MID 70S E MA AND RI BEFORE CRASHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MAY SEE DRAMATIC TEMP DROP IN
EASTERN MA AND RI FROM MID/UPPER 70S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPS MAY REACH MID/UPPER 80S CT VALLEY OF NH...MA
AND CT BEFORE DROPPING LATE IN THE DAY...WARMEST GREATER HARTFORD
AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH DEPENDENT UPON COLD FRONT TIMING. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR
50...K INDEX NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30...SHOWALTERS NEAR 0 AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ALL POINT TO CHANCE TSTMS AND
POTENTIALLY RISK OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR
OF 40-45 KT. WILL INDICATE CHANCE TSTMS GIVEN MODEL
SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT IN EASTERN MA.
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAP MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST GENERALLY IN MID 60S WITH LOW/MID 70S CT VALLEY REGION.
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
NO APPARENT FORCING.
FRI...SOME SUGGESTION OF COOLING 500 MB TEMPS WHICH COULD LEAD TO CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AOA 050. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER W NEW
ENGLAND...PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY RESULT IN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR LAYER HAS BEEN LURKING IN AREA
BUT TREND SEEMS TO BE A DIMINISHING ONE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
AREA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
GOING NEAR THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS LATE
MON ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MAINLY VFR WEST AND MVFR CIGS EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
NE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF WATERS.
DROPPED SCA ON NANTUCKET SOUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN IT FARTHER
OFFSHORE FOR COMBINATION OF 25KT WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF ANY TSTMS LATE MON/MON NIGHT OVER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY NORTH
OF PYM AND PVC. MORE SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 3 TO 5 FT WIND WAVES BRIEFLY
BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS TO BE BELOW OR DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN PASSES TO
THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LOW JUST SE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
TO EXPAND EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN
A NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK TROUGHING EACH AFT.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE NW FLOW FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR ADVERTISING A LINE OF
BROKEN SHRA/EMBEDDED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE SEEN
IN WV AND THEN ADVECTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO
EVENING. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...AND WILL REFLECT IN GRIDS IF RADAR
TRENDS BEAR OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFT INTO EARLY
THIS EVE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. SPC SSEO TARGETS
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NYC METRO/AND NE NJ AS HAVING BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A THUNDERSTORM...WHICH MATCHES BEST EXPECTED AFT
INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT THERE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION.
SOME BREAK OF SUN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WARMEST ACROSS NE METRO NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER...DRIER WEATHER SUN INTO MON.
THERE MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER SUN AFT. HIGHS WILL BE THE
70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUN...WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS 75 TO 80 MON...AND
80 TO 85 INLAND. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MON. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A MODERATE
W/SW FLOW...ALLOWING WARM CONDITIONS EVEN ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEABREEZE IS KEPT IN CHECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
PERHAPS WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG IT. SINCE THE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST...A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BUILD IN TUE NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON WED. LOOKS TOO WARM ALOFT FOR THUNDER. THE
NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIDGE ROLLERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IF ANY PIECES OF
ENERGY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NOAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS TUE NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WED...WILL SLOWLY CLIMB
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OUT TO SEA
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH AROUND 18Z...THEN
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z INTO THE EARLY
EVE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A TSRA FROM THE CITY N AND
W...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF TSRA IS TOO LOW
HOWEVER TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
N WINDS FOLLOWED BY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY THE
IMMEDIATE S COASTS. THE WIND SHIFT MAY NOT REACH KLGA. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE WATERS
TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN ZONES. GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH ON THE WINDS...SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR MON WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. SW WINDS INCREASE MON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY/EVE...PARTICULARLY ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND
SEAS COME DOWN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUE...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF SCA POTENTIAL. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
15 KT MEAN CLOUD LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION THAN YESTERDAY...MINIMIZING THE MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 1/2-3/4
INCH AMOUNTS WHERE ANY CONVECTION TRAINS THIS AFT/EARLY EVE.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT/JMC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...DW/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
930 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD AFFECT MORE OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. SUMMER LIKE WARMTH ON MEMORIAL DAY
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES AROUND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SE OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH
CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG AND LARGER SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IS RATHER WEAK...COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTING TO NOTE HRRR DEVELOPS MORE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGS IT S TO MA/NH BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE IF THAT WILL PAN OUT BUT SOMETHING WE WILL CONSIDER WITH
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
SOME CLEARING HAS WORKED ONTO S COAST BUT PER HIGH-RES MODELS THIS
SHOULD FILL IN BY MIDDAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN 50S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW TO 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
** FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ***
TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BESIDES A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.
OVERALL...THINK WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN ABOVE
PARAMETERS...FEEL A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN WE LIKE TO SEE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.
SOMETIMES THOSE COLD POOLS ALOFT CAN OVER PERFORM...SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. FINALLY...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IF STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM DAY MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON TUE
* ANY TSTMS LATE MON TO TUE PERIOD COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVERVIEW...OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE S OR SE OF NEW ENGLAND BY END OF
WEEK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY THAN LATE SPRING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUE BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. NW FLOW ALOFT REST OF WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AFTER TUE...RISK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR ON COOL
SIDE. H50 TEMPS TURN COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
DETAILS...
MON...W OR EVEN WNW OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND 13C IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS PROBABLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF AREA. EVEN THE CAPE SHOULD BE WARM WITH THIS FLOW. OPTED TO GO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS. BELIEVE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF TSTMS ALONG AND NE OF A MHT-BVY LINE LATE IN THE DAY AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINE.
WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MON NIGHT...SOME RISK OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NE OF A
ORE-ORH-PYM-CQX LINE. ALTHOUGH NOT A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NOT DROPPING BELOW THE 60S.
TUE...THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING DAY WITH DRAMATIC TEMP
CHANGES SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...THINKING TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
AT LEAST MID 70S E MA AND RI BEFORE CRASHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MAY SEE DRAMATIC TEMP DROP IN
EASTERN MA AND RI FROM MID/UPPER 70S TO MID/UPPER 50S IN JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPS MAY REACH MID/UPPER 80S CT VALLEY OF NH...MA
AND CT BEFORE DROPPING LATE IN THE DAY...WARMEST GREATER HARTFORD
AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH DEPENDENT UPON COLD FRONT TIMING. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR
50...K INDEX NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30...SHOWALTERS NEAR 0 AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ALL POINT TO CHANCE TSTMS AND
POTENTIALLY RISK OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR
OF 40-45 KT. WILL INDICATE CHANCE TSTMS GIVEN MODEL
SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT IN EASTERN MA.
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAP MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST GENERALLY IN MID 60S WITH LOW/MID 70S CT VALLEY REGION.
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
NO APPARENT FORCING.
FRI...SOME SUGGESTION OF COOLING 500 MB TEMPS WHICH COULD LEAD TO CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AOA 050. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER W NEW
ENGLAND...PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY RESULT IN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR LAYER HAS BEEN LURKING IN AREA
BUT TREND SEEMS TO BE A DIMINISHING ONE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
AREA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
GOING NEAR THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS LATE
MON ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE OF MAINLY VFR WEST AND MVFR CIGS EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
NE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF WATERS.
DROPPED SCA ON NANTUCKET SOUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN IT FARTHER
OFFSHORE FOR COMBINATION OF 25KT WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF ANY TSTMS LATE MON/MON NIGHT OVER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY NORTH
OF PYM AND PVC. MORE SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 3 TO 5 FT WIND WAVES BRIEFLY
BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS TO BE BELOW OR DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED BUT
NOT GONE ENTIRELY AWAY. THE SHORT WAVE...RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S
ACTIVITY (AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT) WAS MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ROTATING IN A CYCLONIC FLOW...KEEP THAT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE (WHICH THERE HAS BEEN SOME OFF TOO). SO FOR
THIS UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED...BUT ADD THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR HOURLY RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE
POPS TO ISOLATED AND ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR JUSTIFIES TRENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AT IT
INDICATED COVERAGE NOT GOING COMPLETELY AWAY...BUT DIMINISHING A
LITTLE IN AREAS. IT WAS COOL IN THE AIR MASS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED THE FCST IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE RAINFALL OCCURRED TODAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
LOWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE FA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY OUR AREA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH PUTS OUR AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY
SUNDAY THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST SUCH THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO NOSE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE MEAN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SEVERAL RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THIS FLOW. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MON NT INTO TUE OR TUE NT...THEN AGAIN
TOWARD THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON NT THROUGH TUE
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BY LATE THU OR FRI WITH
THE SECOND FEATURE.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
MON NT-TUE NT...THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH...WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THIS SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE 12Z/23 ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE...SO SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY/AMT OF DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MON NT...WITH MAINLY 70S
EXPECTED FOR TUE...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 80S COULD OCCUR IN VALLEY
AREAS IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWER THAN
INDICATED. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S.
WED-THU NT...AT THIS TIME...BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LONG TERM MODELS
AND THEIR ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE TIMING OF FAST MOVING FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. EXPECT WED MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN VALLEY...AND MAINLY 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...WITH 40S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN
COOLER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR. FOR THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE MAY TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS BY FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT.
CEILINGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH VFR AT KALB AND KPOU...MVFR AT KGFL
AND IFR AT KPSF. THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF BUT THE INTENSITY IS LIGHT AND COVERAGE
IS ISOLATED SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE TO MVFR OR AT LEAST BE INTERMITTENT MVFR AT
KALB AND KPOU...WHILE STAYING MVFR AT KGFL AND HOVERING BETWEEN IFR
AND LOW MVFR AT KPSF.
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE LATE MORNING FOR THE
EROSION OF THE LOW STRATUS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 3.5-4.5
KFT AGL BY THE LATE MORNING. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW...A SFC TROUGH...WILL FOCUS MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACKNOWLEDGING MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT...AND
WILL BE MONITORED LATER. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY EVENING AND CEILINGS
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS MAY BE STRONGER...AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...TRIGGERING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TRIGGERING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WHERE
THE RAIN DOES OCCUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SATURDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GREAT AS TODAY AND WITH LESSER COVERAGE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED BUT
NOT GONE ENTIRELY AWAY. THE SHORT WAVE...RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S
ACTIVITY (AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT) WAS MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ROTATING IN A CYCLONIC FLOW...KEEP THAT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE (WHICH THERE HAS BEEN SOME OFF TOO). SO FOR
THIS UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED...BUT ADD THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR HOURLY RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS...LOWERED THE
POPS TO ISOLATED AND ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR JUSTIFIES TRENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AT IT
INDICATED COVERAGE NOT GOING COMPLETELY AWAY...BUT DIMINISHING A
LITTLE IN AREAS. IT WAS COOL IN THE AIR MASS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED THE FCST IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE RAINFALL OCCURRED TODAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
LOWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE FA WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY OUR AREA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH PUTS OUR AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY
SUNDAY THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST SUCH THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO NOSE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE MEAN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SEVERAL RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THIS FLOW. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MON NT INTO TUE OR TUE NT...THEN AGAIN
TOWARD THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON NT THROUGH TUE
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BY LATE THU OR FRI WITH
THE SECOND FEATURE.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
MON NT-TUE NT...THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH...WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THIS SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE 12Z/23 ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE...SO SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY/AMT OF DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MON NT...WITH MAINLY 70S
EXPECTED FOR TUE...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 80S COULD OCCUR IN VALLEY
AREAS IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWER THAN
INDICATED. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S.
WED-THU NT...AT THIS TIME...BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LONG TERM MODELS
AND THEIR ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE TIMING OF FAST MOVING FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. EXPECT WED MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN VALLEY...AND MAINLY 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...WITH 40S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN
COOLER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR. FOR THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE MAY TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS BY FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT.
VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW
IN THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE SHOWERS. SOME LOW
MVFR STRATUS MAY SET UP FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE LATE MORNING FOR THE
EROSION OF THE LOW STRATUS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 3.5-4.5
KFT AGL BY THE LATE MORNING. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW...A SFC TROUGH...WILL FOCUS MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL BE MONITORED LATER.
THE WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N/NW
AT 5 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N TO NW AT
5-10 KTS TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS MAY
BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...TRIGGERING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TRIGGERING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WHERE
THE RAIN DOES OCCUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SATURDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GREAT AS TODAY AND WITH LESSER COVERAGE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
425 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR LATE MAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. LOOKING FROM WEST TO
EAST WE FIND SPLIT FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE
BRANCH RIDING TO THE NORTH INTO A LARGE RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE OTHER BRANCH DROPPING SOUTH IN TO A LARGE CLOSED
UPPER LOW FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH
CONTINUES INTO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR LOCAL AREA RESIDES UNDER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS. FINALLY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH IS
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH ALL ITS
ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL AND WASH
OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND...AND IN THE MIDDLE
70S ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP DUE TO
THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER TOP A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUE THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREA MAY SEE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
585-588DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH GOOD DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL SOAR INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL FORCE A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
(SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS) WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BEACHES IN THE
80S WITH THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS.
A LIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZES FROM
BOTH COASTS...WITH AN EVENTUAL LATE DAY COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR
ZONES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS COLLISION TO BE HEALTHY
WITH A SWATH OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE PENINSULA AFTER 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR
NOT THIS COLLISION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THE
LOWER LEVEL CAP AND THEN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR ALOFT LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHORT DURATION STORMS. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS
CERTAINLY A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR AS THE COLUMN IS QUITE HOSTILE
TO DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE 10,000 FT. HOWEVER...SUCH A STRONG
COLLISION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOMETHING...AND WILL KEEP A
20% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORMS WELL INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR
DURING THE 4-9 PM EDT TIME FRAME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SIGNIFICANT ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
INTO THE CONVECTIVE COLUMN SHORTENS THE LIFE CYCLE. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANY BRIEF STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE DUE TO THIS
EVAPORATIVE PROCESS.
ANY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL FADE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY QUIET AND WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ONCE AGAIN WOULD EXPECT NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MID TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SUNDAY EVENING
WILL BE PUSHING WEST OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. S/W
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MAY DEVELOP AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHICH WOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD
THE EXTREME NORTHERN NATURE COAST LATE...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
STAGE AS IT APPROACHES LEVY COUNTY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA
MONDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BOUNDARY COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CREATING RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
GOOD POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE LONG RANGE
AS CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY FILL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION AS STRONG
U/L LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUMP UP THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. IN
CONTRAST...GFS EXTENDS AN EXTENSIVE L/W TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST
U.S. SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THIS SAME TIMEFRAME. ECMWF IS WEAKER
WITH THIS TROUGH AND FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH
FORECAST RIDGE OVER THE AREA THE PREFERRED SOLUTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE COLLISION OF THE EAST/WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VIS AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS SUCH
AS KPGD AND KLAL. ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT WITH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/EVENING. JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY FOR KLAL...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS DAILY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. BOATERS PLANNING ACTIVITIES NEAR
THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TEND TO
MIGRATE OFFSHORE. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE+
STRONG SIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 74 91 74 / 10 10 40 10
FMY 93 73 92 71 / 10 10 40 10
GIF 95 73 92 71 / 20 20 40 10
SRQ 87 74 90 73 / 10 10 30 20
BKV 94 68 93 69 / 10 10 40 10
SPG 90 76 89 76 / 10 10 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
346 AM EDT Sat May 24 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
IR satellite loops overnight, and upstream observations, indicate
that a layer of fairly dense cirrus is arriving in our forecast area
from the west. Forecast soundings and HRRR forecast cloud ceilings
suggest that this cirrus will persist for much of the day. Some
filtered sunshine is still expected at a minimum, so it should be
another very warm day. However, the added cloud cover will likely
make it a little cooler than yesterday. Our local hi-res (CAM) model
ensemble seemed to produce a reasonable maximum temperature forecast
based on the expected cloud cover, so we weighted expectations
toward that and made sure the forecast today was lower than observed
highs yesterday. Some recent 4km WRF runs - both from our office and
NCEP - have indicated a few showers and thunderstorms developing
along the sea breeze this afternoon, or in parts of southeast
Alabama where surface dewpoints will be a little higher. This is not
indicated by all WRFs, and global models remain dry. Given this, the
chance of rain today should not be too high, but we inserted a
mention of "isolated showers and thunderstorms" with a 10% PoP along
the Panhandle sea breeze and in southeast Alabama.
&&
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Very interesting forecast will be coming up for the remainder of
the Memorial Day Weekend, as the current hot and dry pattern seemed
destined not to be able to last for much longer. If fact, the GFS
and ECMWF have come into fairly good agreement that the upper level
ridging which had been protecting our skies with fair and hot
weather, will gradually be sharpening up into a trof along the FL
east coast. This should give us a gradual increase in cloud cover
and rain chances on Sunday through Monday (especially across eastern
portions of the CWA) with high temps dropping back into the lower to
a few middle 90s. Additionally, with the steepening trof, still
adequate daytime heating, and fairly steep mid level lapse rates,
there appears to be some threat for a few strong to severe storms on
Sunday and Sunday night, again with the best chances and highest
PoPs furthest to the east. As of this package, did insert Isolated
Severe storms from 00 to 06 UTC Sunday night along the easternmost
corridor of the CWA, which also coincides with PoPs of 60 percent
(or the likely category). Further to the west, with Pops gradually
decreasing from 50 to 30 percent, still carried strong storm wording
with possible gusty winds.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...
The GFS & ECMWF forecast a rather narrow, 500 mb long wave ridge
over the Southeast through Tuesday night, though the GFS ridge axis
is farther west than the ECMWF. Both models forecast a breakdown of
this ridge beginning Wednesday, though they continue to differ on
just how this occurs. Despite these differences, both solutions
bring a "backdoor" surface cold front into our forecast area later
in the workweek, with the GFS being faster and having the cold front
actually pass south of our region, while the ECMWF stalls the front
just to our north. The mean of these solutions has gradual ramp-up
in PoPs, from 20% or less through Wednesday, then 30-40% afterward.
The highest PoP will be during the afternoon & early evening hours,
when CAPE is highest. Temperatures will be near average, with highs
around 90 and lows in the 60s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] At ECP, TLH, and VLD, MVFR visibilities with
haze or light fog was reported around TAF issuance time. Therefore,
despite increasing cirrus cloud cover aloft some MVFR VIS in fog is
possible at those three terminals through around 12-13Z. At VLD,
some IFR VIS cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected with a high ceiling around 20-25kft.
&&
.Marine...
Generally light winds and low seas should prevail across the waters
during much if not all of the forecast period, with an onshore
component to the winds at most times.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture should continue to increase through the forecast
period, with RH staying above critical thresholds. Therefore, no red
flag conditions are expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
All of our rivers are remaining below flood stage, and should
continue a gradual decline. The one possible exception could be a
brief 0.50" to 0.75" that may fall along the Suwannee and
Withlacoochee River basins on Sunday through Monday, but even these
amounts would likely have little to no impact on area stages.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 66 92 67 91 / 10 10 30 40 30
Panama City 86 72 86 71 85 / 10 0 10 20 10
Dothan 91 68 94 69 92 / 10 10 20 30 30
Albany 92 68 91 69 92 / 10 10 40 40 40
Valdosta 96 67 93 67 91 / 10 10 50 60 40
Cross City 92 68 92 66 91 / 10 10 30 60 30
Apalachicola 90 71 88 70 86 / 10 0 10 20 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GOULD
OFFICES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
31
/ISSUED 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH INCREASED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON TAP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A BROAD ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
DYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE RATHER STAGNANT AND MARKED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. HAVE UPPED THE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BASED ON THE
PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF TROUGH. HAVE PEGGED
THURSDAY AS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
RESULTANT WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.
GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS MAINLY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS.
BAKER
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF ATL THIS EVENING AND HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE TAF. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PROGGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A FEW015
DECK. NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED...SO DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER TO THE
EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE S/SW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 86 67 88 / 30 40 30 40
ATLANTA 67 87 69 86 / 30 30 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 59 83 61 82 / 30 30 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 88 64 87 / 30 30 30 30
COLUMBUS 68 91 69 89 / 20 20 20 20
GAINESVILLE 65 85 67 86 / 30 40 30 30
MACON 66 88 67 89 / 20 40 30 30
ROME 62 87 64 88 / 30 30 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 88 65 87 / 20 30 30 30
VIDALIA 68 88 70 89 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Forecast for the next 24 hours remains mostly unchanged with a similar
environment seen for the past few days. Morning analysis shows the
upper trough responsible for this unsettled pattern rotating over
northern AZ with a broad upper ridge over the northern plains. A
series of embedded weak troughs were noted over the central plains.
One in particular across northern OK into southeast KS continues to
impact our CWA through the morning hours. A warm moist plume was
spreading northeast into southern and eastern Kansas as dewpoints
increase into the lower and middle 60s through the afternoon.
The increasing LLJ with the additional lift from the upper wave and
saturated atmospheric profile across northeast Kansas support the
current convection across southern portions of the area to continue,
if not increase in coverage through the morning and afternoon.
Activity is not expected to be severe through the day due to CAPE
values staying low near 1000 J/KG. Shear values, especially
directionally, increase a bit higher than yesterday in the 20 to 25
kt range with perhaps the stronger updrafts producing small hail and
gusty winds near 40 mph. The more pressing concern with convection
today will be the heavy rain. PWAT values increase to 1.6 inches
with mean h5 flow very weak suggesting slow-moving convection
generating outflow that triggers additional convection. The latest
NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR are similar in developing a heavier band
of rain impacting much of the area from now through at least 1 PM.
Areas near and south of Interstate 70 corridor stand the better
chances for flash flooding. A generous rainfall amount from 0.20 to
0.75 inches is likely with locally higher amounts from 1 to 2
inches with training convection. Likely precip chances decline to a
chance by this evening as guidance varies on if and where precip
redevelops from another weak upper wave.
Latest guidance was trending slightly cooler on temperatures today
due to extensive cloud cover and precip in the area. Lowered highs a
few degrees to the mid 70s but could still be too warm dependent on
precip coverage through the day. Lows this evening were unchanged in
the middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
For Sunday through Tuesday, the forecast area is likely to remain
under the influence of the closed low to the west. Models are in
reasonably good agreement with the cut off low`s slow progression
east, and they maintain a conditionally unstable atmosphere with
decent moisture available and no real inhibition to convection.
With the occasional wave lifting out of the low providing some
forcing, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm should
develop. The forecast continues with POPs of 40 to 50 percent
during the daytime, mainly because there is no clear surface
feature to focus convection and pin point one location more likely
to receive precip over another. Deep layer sheer remains
unimpressive so organized severe weather looks unlikely. Really
with PWs near 1.5 inches, localized flash flooding remains the
main concern with the thunderstorm activity. Temps should not
change much from day to day since there is no real change in
airmass, so the temp forecast is generally a persistence forecast
of lows in the 60s and highs around 80.
By Wednesday, models are beginning to converge on an idea of the
closed upper low moving southeast gradually. Because of this the
forecast begins a trend down in POPs, but not completely doing
away with them. The GFS still suggests the atmosphere will be
conditionally unstable through the end of the week and that all is
needed might be some weak lift or weak forcing to generate precip.
Therefore some slight chances have been retained for Thursday and
Friday. Uncertainty is a bit higher for the end of the week since
the synoptic flow remains rather weak over the central plains.
This allows the GFS to bring a weak backdoor front into the area
while the ECMWF favors mid level ridging. Temps should see a
slight warming trend through the end of the work week due to
rising mid level heights and increases in insolation. However
strong warm air advection does not look to affect the area so
highs are forecast to warm into the mid 80s by Friday. Lows should
remain in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Ceilings should increase to VFR at terminal MHK by 20Z SAT.
Thunderstorm may redevelop this afternoon near the terminals but
should end after 2Z SUN. May see scattered showers through
the night and into Sunday morning. Expect MVFR ceilings at times
late tonight and through Sunday morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
As the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon the best instability
will be on the order of a couple of thousand J/kg located across
NW Kansas through central Kansas with less emphasis on the farther
western counties. Bulk shear values will be quite weak however. The
CAPE values will be owing largely to moisture as widespread low
level stratus will need to slowly erode this morning. With adequate
lift, a few rounds of shower and scattered thunderstorms will occur
again today as on Friday. The convective allowing models are not in
good agreement on the timing of convection as the 6Z runs are
indicating strongly forced convection between 00 and 06 UTC this
evening. The NAM solution expands what appeared to be the
aforementioned convection across the panhandles northward into
western Kansas later this morning associated with a isentropic lift
pattern. Initially we`ve maintained little if any POPS until around
18 z before ramping up chances through he afternoon and evening.
The current HRRR is not a tremendous help at this time as the
precipitation associated with the panhandles storm trends to
diminishing near Elkhart around 16 UTC. Beyond convective chances,
the highs will not be appreciably warmer than yesterday given the
expansive cloud cover. Another night of mild temperatures is
expected across central Kansas where temperature will not fall below
60 degrees, with stratus and potentially developing fog as
well.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A blocky flow regime will continue in the central United States most
of next week as the closed upper level cyclone in Arizona wallows
slowly east into the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and into northern
Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Upper level ridging will build from
Mexico into the Central Plains north of the upper level cyclone, and
the remnants of the cyclone should propagate south to the Texas Gulf
Coast next weekend on the southern periphery of the upper level
ridge extending from Mexico to the Upper Midwest. The net result
will be a return to warm and quiet weather in western Kansas from
Tuesday through Friday.
A weakening Madden Julian Oscillation may propagate across Africa
into the Indian Ocean by the end of May, but any coherent signal
will be weak and will have little influence on the mid latitude flow
regime. Global relative angular momentum has been above climatology
since mid May, but mountain torque has trended toward negative
territory in recent days. The atmosphere appears to be best
represented by Phase 8 of the Weickmann-Berry Phase Space diagram
and may trend toward Phase 1 by the end of next week given the
probable continued negative tendency in global relative angular
momentum. Phase 8 and 1 both favor cyclonic flow in the western
United States, so the concept of maintaining a mean long wave trough
near 120W with a ridge in the eastern Pacific and a trend toward
ridging from Mexico into the Southern Plains seems very reasonable.
If some sort of coherent cluster of enhanced tropical thunderstorms
does move across the Indian Ocean the first part of June, upper
level ridging may be enhanced in the western United States, and
another surge of cool air may spread into the central part of the
country the first week of June.
The extensive rainfall that has occurred in the Texas Panhandle,
eastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma in recent days will favor at
least some greening of vegetation and will have an effect on the
weather in western Kansas in June. Increased evapotranspiration will
support higher dewpoints in western Kansas at least for a while. The
pool of warm ocean temperatures in the mid latitudes in the North
Pacific has continued to shift eastward with time, and ocean
temperatures are above climatology along the west coast of Canada.
This is different from what was observed in 2012 and 2013 and may
favor northwest flow aloft across the Central Plains and increased
incidence of nocturnal thunderstorm clusters propagating from
northeastern Colorado across western Kansas this summer. Guidance
still suggests that rainfall in June will be above climatology,
especially in northern Kansas.
In the more immediate future, the numerical models are in
surprisingly good agreement with propagation of the closed upper
level cyclone as it approaches the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and
moves into northern Oklahoma Tuesday. The 12Z GFS agrees well with
the 00Z ECMWF and largely was used for minor grid adjustments. A
moist and marginally unstable atmosphere will continue in western
Kansas, and minor troughs rotating around the upper level cyclone
will support episodes of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.
The GFS and ECMWF both move a minor upper level trough evident on
satellite imagery in central California around the upper level
cyclone into western Oklahoma Sunday night. This should support
development of a cluster of thunderstorms that will move into south
central Kansas Sunday night and weaken in central Kansas Monday
morning. Scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the upper level
cold pool could occur about any where in Kansas Monday afternoon and
Monday evening, although the cold pool across the southern part of
the state may be the favored area for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Any weak boundary near the upper level cyclone will
have to be watched for the possibility weak nonmesocyclone tornado
formation in the moist environment.
On Tuesday, the upper level cyclone still will be close enough to
south central Kansas to support diurnally modulated thunderstorm
development, but chances will decrease Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level ridging builds in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
The GFS continues to try to bring the remnants of TS Amanda north
into Arizona Friday and into eastern Colorado by Saturday morning,
while the ECMWF carries most of the remnants of Amanda west into the
cooler waters of the Pacific. If the GFS verifies, there will be an
increased chance for thunderstorms in western Kansas Saturday;
however, confidence is far too low to get too carried away with rain
chances. Upper level ridging will build in central Canada around 1
June, and a cold front is likely to move into northern Kansas. A
warm mid level plume should spread into the High Plains next
weekend, and the potential exists for nocturnal thunderstorm
clusters along the edge of the elevated mixed layer the few days of
June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail across the DDC and GCK terminals this
afternoon with MVFR conditions at HYS. Winds will generally be
light and variable becoming southeast at 5 to 10 knots this
evening. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening, but confidence is low on the timing.
To account for this I have placed VCTS in the TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 61 79 58 / 40 50 40 50
GCK 79 58 79 57 / 40 50 30 40
EHA 76 57 78 56 / 40 50 30 40
LBL 79 60 80 57 / 40 50 40 40
HYS 78 60 80 59 / 40 50 40 50
P28 82 63 78 62 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...Updated Long Term Section...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Have updated the forecast to include some patchy fog over far southwest
Kansas, generally along and west of Highway 23 from Dighton to Meade.
Some locally dense fog will be possible for an hour or so before the
the fog begins to burn off with daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
As the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon the best instability
will be on the order of a couple of thousand J/kg located across
NW Kansas through central Kansas with less emphasis on the farther
western counties. Bulk shear values will be quite weak however. The
CAPE values will be owing largely to moisture as widespread low
level stratus will need to slowly erode this morning. With adequate
lift, a few rounds of shower and scattered thunderstorms will occur
again today as on Friday. The convective allowing models are not in
good agreement on the timing of convection as the 6Z runs are
indicating strongly forced convection between 00 and 06 UTC this
evening. The NAM solution expands what appeared to be the
aforementioned convection across the panhandles northward into
western Kansas later this morning associated with a isentropic lift
pattern. Initially we`ve maintained little if any POPS until around
18 z before ramping up chances through he afternoon and evening.
The current HRRR is not a tremendous help at this time as the
precipitation associated with the panhandles storm trends to
diminishing near Elkhart around 16 UTC. Beyond convective chances,
the highs will not be appreciably warmer than yesterday given the
expansive cloud cover. Another night of mild temperatures is
expected across central Kansas where temperature will not fall below
60 degrees, with stratus and potentially developing fog as
well.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A blocky flow regime will continue in the central United States most
of next week as the closed upper level cyclone in Arizona wallows
slowly east into the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and into northern
Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Upper level ridging will build from
Mexico into the Central Plains north of the upper level cyclone, and
the remnants of the cyclone should propagate south to the Texas Gulf
Coast next weekend on the southern periphery of the upper level
ridge extending from Mexico to the Upper Midwest. The net result
will be a return to warm and quiet weather in western Kansas from
Tuesday through Friday.
A weakening Madden Julian Oscillation may propagate across Africa
into the Indian Ocean by the end of May, but any coherent signal
will be weak and will have little influence on the mid latitude flow
regime. Global relative angular momentum has been above climatology
since mid May, but mountain torque has trended toward negative
territory in recent days. The atmosphere appears to be best
represented by Phase 8 of the Weickmann-Berry Phase Space diagram
and may trend toward Phase 1 by the end of next week given the
probable continued negative tendency in global relative angular
momentum. Phase 8 and 1 both favor cyclonic flow in the western
United States, so the concept of maintaining a mean long wave trough
near 120W with a ridge in the eastern Pacific and a trend toward
ridging from Mexico into the Southern Plains seems very reasonable.
If some sort of coherent cluster of enhanced tropical thunderstorms
does move across the Indian Ocean the first part of June, upper
level ridging may be enhanced in the western United States, and
another surge of cool air may spread into the central part of the
country the first week of June.
The extensive rainfall that has occurred in the Texas Panhandle,
eastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma in recent days will favor at
least some greening of vegetation and will have an effect on the
weather in western Kansas in June. Increased evapotranspiration will
support higher dewpoints in western Kansas at least for a while. The
pool of warm ocean temperatures in the mid latitudes in the North
Pacific has continued to shift eastward with time, and ocean
temperatures are above climatology along the west coast of Canada.
This is different from what was observed in 2012 and 2013 and may
favor northwest flow aloft across the Central Plains and increased
incidence of nocturnal thunderstorm clusters propagating from
northeastern Colorado across western Kansas this summer. Guidance
still suggests that rainfall in June will be above climatology,
especially in northern Kansas.
In the more immediate future, the numerical models are in
surprisingly good agreement with propagation of the closed upper
level cyclone as it approaches the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and
moves into northern Oklahoma Tuesday. The 12Z GFS agrees well with
the 00Z ECMWF and largely was used for minor grid adjustments. A
moist and marginally unstable atmosphere will continue in western
Kansas, and minor troughs rotating around the upper level cyclone
will support episodes of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.
The GFS and ECMWF both move a minor upper level trough evident on
satellite imagery in central California around the upper level
cyclone into western Oklahoma Sunday night. This should support
development of a cluster of thunderstorms that will move into south
central Kansas Sunday night and weaken in central Kansas Monday
morning. Scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the upper level
cold pool could occur about any where in Kansas Monday afternoon and
Monday evening, although the cold pool across the southern part of
the state may be the favored area for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Any weak boundary near the upper level cyclone will
have to be watched for the possibility weak nonmesocyclone tornado
formation in the moist environment.
On Tuesday, the upper level cyclone still will be close enough to
south central Kansas to support diurnally modulated thunderstorm
development, but chances will decrease Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level ridging builds in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
The GFS continues to try to bring the remnants of TS Amanda north
into Arizona Friday and into eastern Colorado by Saturday morning,
while the ECMWF carries most of the remnants of Amanda west into the
cooler waters of the Pacific. If the GFS verifies, there will be an
increased chance for thunderstorms in western Kansas Saturday;
however, confidence is far too low to get too carried away with rain
chances. Upper level ridging will build in central Canada around 1
June, and a cold front is likely to move into northern Kansas. A
warm mid level plume should spread into the High Plains next
weekend, and the potential exists for nocturnal thunderstorm
clusters along the edge of the elevated mixed layer the few days of
June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through much of the morning before
lifting into the MVFR and VFR categories. Areas of fog around Garden
City will reduce visibilities to less than a mile for a few hours
this morning as well. Isolated light rainshowers will be possible
around Garden City and Dodge City late this morning with a chance
for thunderstorms developing early this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 61 79 58 / 40 50 40 50
GCK 79 58 79 57 / 40 50 30 40
EHA 77 57 78 56 / 40 50 30 40
LBL 79 60 80 57 / 40 50 40 40
HYS 78 60 80 59 / 40 50 40 50
P28 80 63 78 62 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
655 AM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Have updated the forecast to include some patchy fog over far southwest
Kansas, generally along and west of Highway 23 from Dighton to Meade.
Some locally dense fog will be possible for an hour or so before the
the fog begins to burn off with daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
As the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon the best instability
will be on the order of a couple of thousand J/kg located across
NW Kansas through central Kansas with less emphasis on the farther
western counties. Bulk shear values will be quite weak however. The
CAPE values will be owing largely to moisture as widespread low
level stratus will need to slowly erode this morning. With adequate
lift, a few rounds of shower and scattered thunderstorms will occur
again today as on Friday. The convective allowing models are not in
good agreement on the timing of convection as the 6Z runs are
indicating strongly forced convection between 00 and 06 UTC this
evening. The NAM solution expands what appeared to be the
aforementioned convection across the panhandles northward into
western Kansas later this morning associated with a isentropic lift
pattern. Initially we`ve maintained little if any POPS until around
18 z before ramping up chances through he afternoon and evening.
The current HRRR is not a tremendous help at this time as the
precipitation associated with the panhandles storm trends to
diminishing near Elkhart around 16 UTC. Beyond convective chances,
the highs will not be appreciably warmer than yesterday given the
expansive cloud cover. Another night of mild temperatures is
expected across central Kansas where temperature will not fall below
60 degrees, with stratus and potentially developing fog as
well.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
The upper level low over the southwestern states today is progged by
the models to slowly move east into the Texas Panhandle by Memorial
Day. Weak disturbances rotating around this upper low will impact
the central High Plains through the weekend. Abundant low level
moisture will continue in place across the High Plains. This will
result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, especially as the upper low and its associated colder air
aloft results in more destabilization. Hard to pin down the timing
on any specific disturbances but will at least show a diurnal trend
in precipitation chances.
Precipitation chances will continue off and on through Tuesday
before the upper low starts to move east out of the High Plains. By
midweek, an upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the
High Plains and push thunderstorm chances off to the south and east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through much of the morning before
lifting into the MVFR and VFR categories. Areas of fog around Garden
City will reduce visibilities to less than a mile for a few hours
this morning as well. Isolated light rainshowers will be possible
around Garden City and Dodge City late this morning with a chance
for thunderstorms developing early this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 61 79 58 / 60 60 40 50
GCK 79 58 79 57 / 60 60 30 40
EHA 77 57 78 56 / 60 60 30 40
LBL 79 60 80 57 / 60 60 40 40
HYS 78 60 80 59 / 60 60 40 50
P28 80 63 78 62 / 60 60 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
643 AM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Forecast for the next 24 hours remains mostly unchanged with a similar
environment seen for the past few days. Morning analysis shows the
upper trough responsible for this unsettled pattern rotating over
northern AZ with a broad upper ridge over the northern plains. A
series of embedded weak troughs were noted over the central plains.
One in particular across northern OK into southeast KS continues to
impact our CWA through the morning hours. A warm moist plume was
spreading northeast into southern and eastern Kansas as dewpoints
increase into the lower and middle 60s through the afternoon.
The increasing LLJ with the additional lift from the upper wave and
saturated atmospheric profile across northeast Kansas support the
current convection across southern portions of the area to continue,
if not increase in coverage through the morning and afternoon.
Activity is not expected to be severe through the day due to CAPE
values staying low near 1000 J/KG. Shear values, especially
directionally, increase a bit higher than yesterday in the 20 to 25
kt range with perhaps the stronger updrafts producing small hail and
gusty winds near 40 mph. The more pressing concern with convection
today will be the heavy rain. PWAT values increase to 1.6 inches
with mean h5 flow very weak suggesting slow-moving convection
generating outflow that triggers additional convection. The latest
NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR are similar in developing a heavier band
of rain impacting much of the area from now through at least 1 PM.
Areas near and south of Interstate 70 corridor stand the better
chances for flash flooding. A generous rainfall amount from 0.20 to
0.75 inches is likely with locally higher amounts from 1 to 2
inches with training convection. Likely precip chances decline to a
chance by this evening as guidance varies on if and where precip
redevelops from another weak upper wave.
Latest guidance was trending slightly cooler on temperatures today
due to extensive cloud cover and precip in the area. Lowered highs a
few degrees to the mid 70s but could still be too warm dependent on
precip coverage through the day. Lows this evening were unchanged in
the middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
For Sunday through Tuesday, the forecast area is likely to remain
under the influence of the closed low to the west. Models are in
reasonably good agreement with the cut off low`s slow progression
east, and they maintain a conditionally unstable atmosphere with
decent moisture available and no real inhibition to convection.
With the occasional wave lifting out of the low providing some
forcing, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm should
develop. The forecast continues with POPs of 40 to 50 percent
during the daytime, mainly because there is no clear surface
feature to focus convection and pin point one location more likely
to receive precip over another. Deep layer sheer remains
unimpressive so organized severe weather looks unlikely. Really
with PWs near 1.5 inches, localized flash flooding remains the
main concern with the thunderstorm activity. Temps should not
change much from day to day since there is no real change in
airmass, so the temp forecast is generally a persistence forecast
of lows in the 60s and highs around 80.
By Wednesday, models are beginning to converge on an idea of the
closed upper low moving southeast gradually. Because of this the
forecast begins a trend down in POPs, but not completely doing
away with them. The GFS still suggests the atmosphere will be
conditionally unstable through the end of the week and that all is
needed might be some weak lift or weak forcing to generate precip.
Therefore some slight chances have been retained for Thursday and
Friday. Uncertainty is a bit higher for the end of the week since
the synoptic flow remains rather weak over the central plains.
This allows the GFS to bring a weak backdoor front into the area
while the ECMWF favors mid level ridging. Temps should see a
slight warming trend through the end of the work week due to
rising mid level heights and increases in insolation. However
strong warm air advection does not look to affect the area so
highs are forecast to warm into the mid 80s by Friday. Lows should
remain in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Wide swath of SHRA is pushing northeast across KTOP/KMHK/KFOE with
visibilities being reduced occasionally to MVFR. Band of MVFR and
IFR cigs over central Kansas are edging close to KMHK and will
maintain lower cigs through 20Z. Lower confidence in MVFR cloud deck
impacting KTOP/KFOE as greater coverage in SHRA may restrict a
broken coverage. Low confidence forecast for the remainder of the period
as short term guidance varies on developing widely scattered TSRA
across the area in the afternoon and evening. Improved categories
to VFR with a mention of VCTS in case a storm develops near the
terminal.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
427 AM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
As the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon the best instability
will be on the order of a couple of thousand J/kg located across
NW Kansas through central Kansas with less emphasis on the farther
western counties. Bulk shear values will be quite weak however. The
CAPE values will be owing largely to moisture as widespread low
level stratus will need to slowly erode this morning. With adequate
lift, a few rounds of shower and scattered thunderstorms will occur
again today as on Friday. The convective allowing models are not in
good agreement on the timing of convection as the 6Z runs are
indicating strongly forced convection between 00 and 06 UTC this
evening. The NAM solution expands what appeared to be the
aforementioned convection across the panhandles northward into
western Kansas later this morning associated with a isentropic lift
pattern. Initially we`ve maintained little if any POPS until around
18 z before ramping up chances through he afternoon and evening.
The current HRRR is not a tremendous help at this time as the
precipitation associated with the panhandles storm trends to
diminishing near Elkhart around 16 UTC. Beyond convective chances,
the highs will not be appreciably warmer than yesterday given the
expansive cloud cover. Another night of mild temperatures is
expected across central Kansas where temperature will not fall below
60 degrees, with stratus and potentially developing fog as
well.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
The upper level low over the southwestern states today is progged by
the models to slowly move east into the Texas Panhandle by Memorial
Day. Weak disturbances rotating around this upper low will impact
the central High Plains through the weekend. Abundant low level
moisture will continue in place across the High Plains. This will
result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, especially as the upper low and its associated colder air
aloft results in more destabilization. Hard to pin down the timing
on any specific disturbances but will at least show a diurnal trend
in precipitation chances.
Precipitation chances will continue off and on through Tuesday
before the upper low starts to move east out of the High Plains. By
midweek, an upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the
High Plains and push thunderstorm chances off to the south and east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
IFR ceilings will persist and potential for fog will need to be monitored
this morning as a light southeast surface flow persists with dew
point depressions of only a few degrees. Convective allowing models
and the NAM are not in good agreement on the timing for convective
initiation late in the day, however all terminals should be affected
by MVFR category TSRA/CBs late today or this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 61 79 58 / 60 60 40 50
GCK 79 58 79 57 / 60 60 30 40
EHA 77 57 78 56 / 60 60 30 40
LBL 79 60 80 57 / 60 60 40 40
HYS 78 60 80 59 / 60 60 40 50
P28 80 63 78 62 / 60 60 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
409 AM CDT Sat May 24 2014
...updated short term...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Increasingly difluent flow aloft was developing across western
Kansas as the upper low had moved into Arizona. A broken line of
convection with widespread trailing stratiform was moving into the
panhandles region from New Mexico as of 3 am, just ahead of the 850
mb jet associated with the closed low. Farther east, scattered
showers had expanded east into eastern Kansas and ended completed
across central Kansas locations from Hays to Medicine Lodge.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
As the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon the best instability
will be on the order of a couple of thousand J/kg located across
NW Kansas through central Kansas with less emphasis on the farther
western counties. Bulk shear values will be quite weak however. The
CAPE values will be owing largely to moisture as widespread low
level stratus will need to slowly erode this morning. With adequate
lift, a few rounds of shower and scattered thunderstorms will occur
again today as on Friday. The convective allowing models are not in
good agreement on the timing of convection as the 6Z runs are
indicating strongly forced convection between 00 and 06 UTC this
evening. The NAM solution expands what appeared to be the
aforementioned convection across the panhandles northward into
western Kansas later this morning associated with a isentropic lift
pattern. Initially we`ve maintained little if any POPS until around
18 z before ramping up chances through he afternoon and evening.
The current HRRR is not a tremendous help at this time as the
precipitation associated with the panhandles storm trends to
diminishing near Elkhart around 16 UTC. Beyond convective chances,
the highs will not be appreciably warmer than yesterday given the
expansive cloud cover. Another night of mild temperatures is
expected across central Kansas where temperature will not fall below
60 degrees, with stratus and potentially developing fog as
well.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Unsettled conditions will persist into the middle part of next
week as the very slow moving upper low over the southwest part of
the U.S. migrates into the plains. With time models have been moving
the low level forcing farther south and taking the threat of
heavier rains into OK and TX. It would appear that with a
relatively cold core there should still be convection across most
of my forecast area through at least Tuesday and perhaps into
Wednesday. Trying to pinpoint location and times of the
precipitation during that period is futile so will for the most
part broad brush pops. Temperatures will be moderated by pcpn and
cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
IFR ceilings will persist and potential for fog will need to be monitored
this morning as a light southeast surface flow persists with dew
point depressions of only a few degrees. Convective allowing models
and the NAM are not in good agreement on the timing for convective
initiation late in the day, however all terminals should be affected
by MVFR category TSRA/CBs late today or this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 61 79 58 / 60 60 40 50
GCK 79 58 79 57 / 60 60 30 40
EHA 77 57 78 56 / 60 60 30 40
LBL 79 60 80 57 / 60 60 40 40
HYS 78 60 80 59 / 60 60 40 50
P28 80 63 78 62 / 60 60 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Hutton
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
327 AM CDT Sat May 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Forecast for the next 24 hours remains mostly unchanged with a similar
environment seen for the past few days. Morning analysis shows the
upper trough responsible for this unsettled pattern rotating over
northern AZ with a broad upper ridge over the northern plains. A
series of embedded weak troughs were noted over the central plains.
One in particular across northern OK into southeast KS continues to
impact our CWA through the morning hours. A warm moist plume was
spreading northeast into southern and eastern Kansas as dewpoints
increase into the lower and middle 60s through the afternoon.
The increasing LLJ with the additional lift from the upper wave and
saturated atmospheric profile across northeast Kansas support the
current convection across southern portions of the area to continue,
if not increase in coverage through the morning and afternoon.
Activity is not expected to be severe through the day due to CAPE
values staying low near 1000 J/KG. Shear values, especially
directionally, increase a bit higher than yesterday in the 20 to 25
kt range with perhaps the stronger updrafts producing small hail and
gusty winds near 40 mph. The more pressing concern with convection
today will be the heavy rain. PWAT values increase to 1.6 inches
with mean h5 flow very weak suggesting slow-moving convection
generating outflow that triggers additional convection. The latest
NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR are similar in developing a heavier band
of rain impacting much of the area from now through at least 1 PM.
Areas near and south of Interstate 70 corridor stand the better
chances for flash flooding. A generous rainfall amount from 0.20 to
0.75 inches is likely with locally higher amounts from 1 to 2
inches with training convection. Likely precip chances decline to a
chance by this evening as guidance varies on if and where precip
redevelops from another weak upper wave.
Latest guidance was trending slightly cooler on temperatures today
due to extensive cloud cover and precip in the area. Lowered highs a
few degrees to the mid 70s but could still be too warm dependent on
precip coverage through the day. Lows this evening were unchanged in
the middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
For Sunday through Tuesday, the forecast area is likely to remain
under the influence of the closed low to the west. Models are in
reasonably good agreement with the cut off low`s slow progression
east, and they maintain a conditionally unstable atmosphere with
decent moisture available and no real inhibition to convection.
With the occasional wave lifting out of the low providing some
forcing, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm should
develop. The forecast continues with POPs of 40 to 50 percent
during the daytime, mainly because there is no clear surface
feature to focus convection and pin point one location more likely
to receive precip over another. Deep layer sheer remains
unimpressive so organized severe weather looks unlikely. Really
with PWs near 1.5 inches, localized flash flooding remains the
main concern with the thunderstorm activity. Temps should not
change much from day to day since there is no real change in
airmass, so the temp forecast is generally a persistence forecast
of lows in the 60s and highs around 80.
By Wednesday, models are beginning to converge on an idea of the
closed upper low moving southeast gradually. Because of this the
forecast begins a trend down in POPs, but not completely doing
away with them. The GFS still suggests the atmosphere will be
conditionally unstable through the end of the week and that all is
needed might be some weak lift or weak forcing to generate precip.
Therefore some slight chances have been retained for Thursday and
Friday. Uncertainty is a bit higher for the end of the week since
the synoptic flow remains rather weak over the central plains.
This allows the GFS to bring a weak backdoor front into the area
while the ECMWF favors mid level ridging. Temps should see a
slight warming trend through the end of the work week due to
rising mid level heights and increases in insolation. However
strong warm air advection does not look to affect the area so
highs are forecast to warm into the mid 80s by Friday. Lows should
remain in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Initial concerns will be for BR near MHK, while TOP and FOE did
not receive nearly as much rain and may hold above 6SM for the
night. Next batch of showers and storms developing on the radar to
the south and have tried to time out with a tempo group for around
sunrise. Otherwise will be a day of periodic rain showers and will
hold as VCSH and need to adjust as waves approach and move
through.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR
OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE QUITE
COMFORTABLE RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS TAKES PLACE...AS THE BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES...ANCHORED BY
LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
RIDGE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL THE ENERGY AT BAY FOR
KENTUCKY...THOUGH...SUCH THAT SOME WORKS INTO OUR CWA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE GONE WITH WX DETAILS FROM
THE NAM12 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL FOG FORMATION. A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TIME DIURNAL
CURVES FOR THIS IN THE VALLEYS. THE FRONT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY AND A SMALL INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE THE
COOLING IN THE VALLEYS.
PRIMARILY USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
THEN LOADED TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE
WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGHER VALUES AT SME FROM THE MAV WERE
DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE DRIER MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START OUT JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
RIDGING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS...WITH REINFORCING BOUTS OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS WILL
EVOLVE CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MURKY BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GIVEN POPS SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG
FORCING SIGNALS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...EXPECT INCREASED HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...ADDING A LITTLE BIT MORE FORCING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
SATURDAY DRY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE RIVER BEDS...BUT WILL
NOT IMPACT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
138 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
TEMPERATURES ALREADY DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE LAST HOUR
AND ON TRACK FOR MID 40S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH TEMPERATURES...SO NO NEED FOR ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON..OPTED TO TAKE
LOWS IN THE COLDER VALLEYS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY BRINGING ITS DRIER AIR MASS AND COOLER TEMPS. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. JUST ALONG THE BORDER WITH
TENNESSEE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
HUMID...AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SOUTH PARTS OF THE STATE.
DIFFERENCES BROUGHT BY THIS FRONT TO EAST KENTUCKY INCLUDE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S WHILE TO THE FAR SOUTH READINGS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 60. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH...ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH STRUCTURE THROUGH THE AREA. A
RELATIVELY SHARP TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGING EASES INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE TRACK OF ANY MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA KEEPING THE FLOW PATTERN
RATHER SMOOTH OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON ACCOUNT OF
THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOLER NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH THE FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO TONIGHT/S WILL BE HAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT BY SUNDAY MORNING THAN WE ANTICIPATE FOR TONIGHT.
AFTER AN EXTRA DAY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT...THE PATCHY FOG
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE DEEPEST VALLEYS JUST AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
FILLING THE GAP TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
A BIT MORE EXTENSIVELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN
LINE WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HOLDING IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM YESTERDAY TO
TODAY. AT 12Z SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINING STEADY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE MID TERM. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH SEVERAL CLOSED WAVES
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THESE
TWO TROUGHS IN PLACE...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DRIVING FORCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE 300MB JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...PLAYING INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGHING DURING THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...WEAK FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN RIDGING...WILL MEAN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR KY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FLOW AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY THAT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED /MONDAY/ TO LOW END SCATTERED
/TUESDAY/ SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIP ON
TUESDAY AND NOT MONDAY. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...AND SCATTERED
NATURE OF THIS SET UP...DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND FOR
POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE LOW WILL MAKES ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. IN DOING SO...IT WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KY IN THE FORM OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING FROM NE TO SE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. NEITHER ONE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THIS FAR OUT...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FRONT...THOUGH
WEEK...TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO KY AS WELL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
COULD POSSIBLY PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POINTS AFTER. UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT DOES
NOT WARRANT ANY MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS...SO EXPECT BEST CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE RIVER BEDS...BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6 KFT WITH HIGHER CEILINGS ABOVE 15 KFT TO AROUND 30 KFT.
WITH A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT CHANCE TO SMALL TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE 24/06Z TERMINALS. LATER IN THE EARLY MORNING
PARTS OF DEEP E TX AND LOWER NW LA WILL SEE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 3-5 STATUTE
MILES. THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 24/13Z-24/15Z...WITH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS LOWERING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO LIGHT S-SW WINDS OF LESS THAN 7 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 24/15Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE MORE S FROM 4-8 KNOTS.
/06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS EXTENSIVE AREAS OF ELEVATED
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS RAPIDLY SPREAD E ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FROM CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL TX/SRN
OK...WITH ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NE BENEATH THE AZ
CLOSED LOW...ORIGINATING FROM TS AMANDA OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
00Z KSHV RAOB STILL REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED AND QUITE DRY BENEATH
THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...WITH UPPER RIDGING STILL PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION S TO THE GULF COAST. THE CONVECTION
TO OUR W HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUING THIS
TREND OVERNIGHT EVEN AS A SHORTWAVE DRIFTS E INTO SW AR/NE TX
LATE. THE EARLIER PROGS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
QPF DEVELOPING LATE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND
NAM RUNS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE TONED DOWN POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER 06Z FOR THE
EXTREME NW ZONES...DROPPING POPS FARTHER SE...AS LIMITED MOISTURE
FARTHER S AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE SHOULD
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
GRIDDED CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS WELL
AS SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E BY
AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...02Z TEMPS ARE NEAR
THE OBSERVED READINGS 24 HOURS AGO...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE ERN ZONES...WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SUCH...AS THEY RANGE
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 87 66 87 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
MLU 65 88 64 88 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
DEQ 64 86 62 87 64 / 20 30 20 10 10
TXK 66 86 65 86 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
ELD 63 87 62 88 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
TYR 67 86 66 85 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
GGG 66 86 65 85 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
LFK 68 88 67 86 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A CUT
OFF LOW IS OFF THE NJ COAST AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT HAS LED TO
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND NW WINDS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL WRAP
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CU
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER. A FEW
100 J/KG OF CAPE IS POSSIBLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY CAP
TODAY LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPT DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN SOME OF
THE HI RES MODELS AND MOS THIS MORNING. WENT WITH RUC AND LAMP TODAY
AS THEY HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF LOWER DEWPTS BEING ADVECTED
FROM PA/OH THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO MIX DOWN LOWER
DEWPTS LESSENING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AND THEREFORE KEPT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE MD THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BTW THE APPROACHING HIGH WILL STILL EXIST
TONIGHT AND NW WINDS AROUND 5 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S AND NEAR 60 IN THE METROS AS WINDS WILL
LIMIT DECOUPLING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND NEAR 80 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE BY MONDAY...BUT LACK OF GOOD
FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER
THICKNESSES/850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN
SOME AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND BY THEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MAXIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE LIKELY.
CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY SINKS
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THESE
MAY WIND UP BEING FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA BY AFTERNOON IF THIS IS WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AT THAT TIME.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MAY SNAKE ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD THE HIGHLANDS FOR THURSDAY...SO WHILE EXPECT DRYING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS
IN THIS AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA FOR NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH 2PM
TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND NW WINDS 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK SO NO SCA EXPECTED ATTM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS MAKING A DENT IN THE RIDGE OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS
ADVECTED A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI AS NOTED ON RUC
ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EVEN AT MANY LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE LOCAL COOLING OCCURRED. GRADIENT SW FLOW IS
OBVIOUSLY KEEPING AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COOLER. FAIRPORT AND KISQ
HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS GET OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTN. IN FACT...FAIRPORT
HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY AROUND 50F. DEEP MIXING HAS BROUGHT MUCH
DRIER AIR DOWNWARD WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. RESULT HAS BEEN RH AS
LOW AS 15-20PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIEST. OUT TO THE W...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. ADVANCING CLOUD DECK THRU SE
MN/IA INTO FAR WRN WI MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
ADVANCING NE.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING WHEN PCPN
POTENTIAL WILL REACH UPPER MI AND THEN COVERAGE OF PCPN ON MEMORIAL
DAY. AREA OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AT LEAST THRU THE
EVENING HRS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PLAINS NE. BY
12Z MON...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 200PCT OF
NORMAL. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 25KT...SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...AND INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM 850MB) COULD CERTAINLY SPARK SOME CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL
BEGINNING OVER THE FAR W AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THERE`S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA LIFTS ENE INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A ZONE OF VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE EXTENDING S INTO UPPER MI FROM MAIN AREA OF FORCING
FARTHER N IN NRN ONTARIO. SO...AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA OF LOW POPS SPREADING INTO THE W OVERNIGHT (LOW CHC FAR W
LATE). WILL CARRY SCHC POPS AS FAR E AND N AS ROUGHLY A
KCMX/KMQT/KMNM LINE BEFORE 12Z.
ON MEMORIAL DAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT
SHIFTS E...AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
UPPER MI. IF ANYTHING THERE ARE SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL
BE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON MEMORIAL DAY...BUT NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING...BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPES GENERALLY AROUND
500 TO POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000J/KG. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...BUT WILL BE
LARGELY MASKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT TIED TO DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCT/CHC CATEGORY. KEWEENAW MAY END UP DRY AS LAKE MODERATION KEEPS
INSTABILITY IN CHECK THERE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NO GREATER THAN
25KT...AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LARGER SCALE FEATURES BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGE
APPEARS TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THEN
THERE ARE HINTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COOLER EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL KEEP MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
A DRY AIRMASS HOLD STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. AT
THIS POINT...WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG ANY OF THE DAYS
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL OFFSET THE DRY AIRMASS/WARM TEMPS/LOWER RH
VALUES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
INITIAL PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER AREA OF SMALL
CONCERN FOR POPS WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN. LINGERING HIGHER H85-H7 RH ON NORTH EDGE OF STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
COULD POP ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. NIL INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK...IF
ANY ENHANCEMENT FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES VERY LOW THOUGH.
H85-H7 WINDS ARE MORE NORTHERLY SO IF SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP THEY
WOULD QUICKLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AWAY FM UPR MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS
COOLEST IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS SKIES TURN OUT
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS DOWN TO 70 PCT OF
NORMAL AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR COLDEST SPOTS COULD
DIP TO 40 DEGREES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
THETA-E ADVECTION COULD HELP POP UP MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
MINNESTOTA AND NORTHWEST WI ALONG WITH AREAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WNW FLOW AT H85-H7 WOULD STEER ANY
SHOWERS TOWARD FAR WEST CWA...VCTY OF KIWD AND ALSO WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE. ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND CHANCES WILL
BE KEPT VERY LOW. COOLING WILL STILL BE MORE NOTABLE NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS INLAND TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS MORE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS MAY FALL BRIEFLY OVER UPPER
LAKES...ALLOWING THE SFC TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY TO CROSS
CWA ON THURSDAY. IDEA OF A TROUGH PASSAGE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET BUT NOT AS MUCH THE GEM-NH. ANY DYNAMICS TIED TO THE SFC TROUGH
ARE FORECAST WELL TO NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER ONTARIO. INCREASE OF
H85-H7 RH PRECEEDS THE SFC BOUNDARY...PRETTY MUCH EXITING CWA BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ALONG THE TROUGH EITHER. WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST SURE THING FOR A DRY DAY. DIFFERENCES
THEN APPEAR IN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY IN HANDLING OF HOW
QUICK THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP AND THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN A NUTSHELL...ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS DRAWS SOME ATTENTION AS MOST
TIMES THIS IS USUALLY FLIPPED WITH THE GFS TYPICALLY QUICKER. MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR NOW GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLIES NEARBY AND
FCST MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOOSTED
TEMPS UPWARD WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO THE
EVENING HRS...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MON. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS
ISOLD TSRA COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...LOWER CIGS WILL
DEVELOP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KIWD MON MORNING...BUT
GIVEN EXPECTED DOWNSLOPE SW TO S WIND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN...AND AS A RESULT...LAKE BREEZES ARE THE RULE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. PER 12Z KGRB SOUNDING...AIR MASS IS TOO
DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION ALONG AHEAD OF LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. IN FACT...THERE HASN`T BEEN TOO MUCH CU TODAY. WHAT HAS
DEVELOPED IS VERY HIGH BASED DUE TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS. EARLIER
TODAY...THERE WERE A FEW SHRA IN NE MN AND FAR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO IN AREAS OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
THOSE SHRA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTN. TEMPS ACROSS W AND
CNTRL UPPER MI HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND LWR 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MODERATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES POTENTIAL OF ANY
CONVECTION TONIGHT/SUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO
THE W DRIFTS SLIGHTLY E...WITH AXIS STILL JUST W OF UPPER MI BY LATE
SUN AFTN. 500MB HEIGHTS CHANGE LITTLE...AND IF ANYTHING THERE ARE
VERY SLIGHT RISES. OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE.
THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN SRN MANITOBA. QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM INSTABILITY (MLCAPES
ARE AROUND 1500J/KG IN SRN MANITOBA WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING). MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT OVER
UPPER MI...AND POOL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PASSES TO THE N OF UPPER
MI...FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS GFS/NAM/GEM MODEL RUNS SHOWED. HIGH RES
MODELS ALSO KEEP PCPN FARTHER N OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP CHC/SCHC POPS N OF UPPER MI AND OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. STILL...WILL NEED TO
WATCH TRENDS ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS DECAYING REMNANTS MAY SNEAK
INTO PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI SUN MORNING AS THICKNESS FIELDS
INDICATE PCPN WILL TEND TO PEEL SE WITH TIME.
ON SUN...POOL OF LOWER THETA-E/K INDEX ROTATES NE INTO UPPER MI.
THIS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALSO RESULTS IN ALMOST NO MLCAPE PER
NAM/GFS. SO THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. AS FOR TEMPS...DEEP MIXING TOWARD
750MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO
EVEN MID 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION. SW FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER
SUN THAN TODAY...SO THERE WILL ONLY BE LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LAKESIDE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
50S AT BEST. WITH DEEP MIXING...INCORPORATED LOWER DWPTS INTO THE
FCST IN THE AFTN BASED ON SOUNDINGS. DWPTS COULD VERY WELL END UP A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT
OF MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS FALLING TO THE LWR 40S...
MIN RH WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS AROUND 25PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWEST RH WILL
OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MORE SEASONABLE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET REMAINING ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTRN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO RELATIVELY WEAK AND HARD TO FORECAST DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NRN MN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO EVE. IN GENERAL...THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TOO GREAT
IN MODELS DUE TO OVER FORECAST OF SFC DWPTS IN MID 60S. MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG IN MOST OF THE NWP WHICH IS STILL LIKELY A
LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK - ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZES COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY EXCEPT THOSE AREAS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE LAKE INDUCED STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT THINK MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT
IN ANY WAY...BUT PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DODGE A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +14C. WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME CLOUDS IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY...BUT STILL AN ABOVE AVERAGE DAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
COLD LAKE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM
SUGGESTS. WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE DEVELOPING RELATIVELY STABLE NE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...WITH COOLER
TEMPS.
EXTENDED - SEASONABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S. GFS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES
FOR PCPN EACH DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STABLE SURFACE
FLOW. THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO REALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. WILL END UP INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP TO THE N OF UPPER MI TONIGHT. WHILE THE SHRA WILL
BE MOVING SE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FAR
ENOUGH TO THE N THAT THEY WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE EARLY
TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW AND MID LVL WARMING HAS RESTRICTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU BUILDING OVER ARROWHEAD. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES PER THE
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. WE MAY YET SEE AN ISOLATED RW/TRW DEVELOP.
TEMPS JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY EXCEPT MUCH COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ITS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND WITH THAT COMES THE
USUAL CHALLENGE OF FCSTING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ABSENCE OF WELL
DEFINED BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID LVL WARMING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AMIDST A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED LARGE SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE BASIC
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF MULTI MDL QPF CONCENTRATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS WEST PER
LATEST SREF/GEM/NAM CONSENSUS. EVEN 4KM SPC WRFNMM..WHICH IS A
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL...DOESNT ALLOW CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BASED ON LATEST FCST 925H VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST MN THEN EITHER MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MN. WHERE IT
SLOWS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
POSITION BY TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES. ATMOS DESTABILIZES WITH CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY
ABOUT TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PUTTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN OFF-LAKE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY -TSHRA
POSSIBLE FOR KINL F0R A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTNOON...BUT THEN DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN. SOUTH WINDS TODAY TO INCREASE TO
10-12KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN AROUND
SUNSET TO NEARLY CALM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 79 60 78 / 10 10 60 20
INL 59 82 57 78 / 20 10 40 10
BRD 58 81 62 80 / 10 20 50 20
HYR 52 81 61 80 / 10 10 60 30
ASX 51 79 59 79 / 0 10 60 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL WAA SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER ARROWHEAD WITH REMNANT
CLOUDS THINNING. TRIMMED POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OVER BORDERLAND. LATEST HRRR 3KM SUGGESTS
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WHILE 12KM NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER ARROWHEAD/BORDERLAND FOR AFTN.
OTHERWISE RAISED MAX TEMPS BASED ON LATEST 92H TEMPS AND EXPECTED
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NE MN TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE PRESENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
FORM OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
MASS AND SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS HELPING USHER IN THIS RELATIVELY
WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK/WWD
EXTENDING BRANCH OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS NRN MN/WI
TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DELAY THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY. A COUPLE UPPER SHRT WVS WILL
RIDE ALONG THE NRN/NWRN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...KICKING OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK STORMS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE A FEW RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING UP FROM BIG FALLS TO BRAINERD THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK
BAND OF MID-LVL F-GEN...BUT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE DRIER AIR LATER
THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AS THE BL
DESTABILIZES AND WEAK UPPER FORCING TRIGGERS CONVECTION ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS NRN MN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW LOWER 80S ACROSS NE MN. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF
LS. S/SW WINDS ACROSS LS THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...NORTH OF SILVER BAY RATHER
CHILLY WITH MOST OF THE SOUTH SHORE WARMING UP INTO THE 70S.
HOWEVER...A WEAK NELY FLOW OVER THE HEAD OF THE LAKE COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND DROP
TEMPS AROUND DULUTH/SUPERIOR TO TWO HARBORS A QUICK 10 TO 15
DEGREES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON INLAND AREAS...MAINLY JUST THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ALLOW WEAK CONVECTION
TO PERSIST OVER FAR NRN/NERN MN. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP LIKELY HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE W/NW WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW FROM THE SW AND PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MORE HOT AND HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES IN NE MN. T-STORMS ON SUN AFTERNOON COULD BECOME
STRONG THROUGH NE MN AS BL CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A
MORE ROBUST SURGE OF MOIST AIR ARRIVES ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG
AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DRAG ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN WARM WITH DEEP
MIXING ON MONDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A WEAK SEMI-CUT OFF UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF OUR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT SLOWLY
WOBBLES EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE
WEEK...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MAINLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH IN GENERAL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THAT DIRECTION FOR A FEW PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY -TSHRA
POSSIBLE FOR KINLFRO A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTNOON...BUT THEN DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN. SOUTH WINDS TODAY TO INCREASE TO
10-12KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN AROUND
SUNSET TO NEARLY CALM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 80 56 78 60 / 10 10 10 60
INL 83 59 81 57 / 20 20 40 70
BRD 82 58 80 62 / 10 10 50 70
HYR 79 52 80 61 / 0 10 10 60
ASX 79 51 78 59 / 10 0 10 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL WAA SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER ARROWHEAD WITH REMNANT
CLOUDS THINNING. TRIMMED POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OVER BORDERLAND. LATEST HRRR 3KM SUGGESTS
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WHILE 12KM NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER ARROWHEAD/BORDERLAND FOR AFTN.
OTHERWISE RAISED MAX TEMPS BASED ON LATEST 92H TEMPS AND EXPECTED
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NE MN TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE PRESENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
FORM OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
MASS AND SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS HELPING USHER IN THIS RELATIVELY
WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK/WWD
EXTENDING BRANCH OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS NRN MN/WI
TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DELAY THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY. A COUPLE UPPER SHRT WVS WILL
RIDE ALONG THE NRN/NWRN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...KICKING OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED WEAK STORMS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE A FEW RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING UP FROM BIG FALLS TO BRAINERD THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK
BAND OF MID-LVL F-GEN...BUT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE DRIER AIR LATER
THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AS THE BL
DESTABILIZES AND WEAK UPPER FORCING TRIGGERS CONVECTION ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS NRN MN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW LOWER 80S ACROSS NE MN. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF
LS. S/SW WINDS ACROSS LS THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...NORTH OF SILVER BAY RATHER
CHILLY WITH MOST OF THE SOUTH SHORE WARMING UP INTO THE 70S.
HOWEVER...A WEAK NELY FLOW OVER THE HEAD OF THE LAKE COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND DROP
TEMPS AROUND DULUTH/SUPERIOR TO TWO HARBORS A QUICK 10 TO 15
DEGREES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON INLAND AREAS...MAINLY JUST THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ALLOW WEAK CONVECTION
TO PERSIST OVER FAR NRN/NERN MN. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP LIKELY HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE W/NW WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW FROM THE SW AND PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MORE HOT AND HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES IN NE MN. T-STORMS ON SUN AFTERNOON COULD BECOME
STRONG THROUGH NE MN AS BL CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A
MORE ROBUST SURGE OF MOIST AIR ARRIVES ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG
AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DRAG ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN WARM WITH DEEP
MIXING ON MONDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A WEAK SEMI-CUT OFF UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF OUR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT SLOWLY
WOBBLES EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE
WEEK...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MAINLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH IN GENERAL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THAT DIRECTION FOR A FEW PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE
FOR KINL...KHIB AND KDLH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ISOLATED TSRA
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF KINL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH SO
HAVE LEFT AS VCTS...SHIFTING TO VCSH AFTER 03Z AS POTENTIAL
LINGERS THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS TODAY TO INCREASE TO
10-12KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROPPING OFF AGAIN AROUND
SUNSET TO 4-8KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 80 56 78 60 / 10 10 10 60
INL 83 59 81 57 / 20 20 40 70
BRD 82 58 80 62 / 10 10 50 70
HYR 79 52 80 61 / 0 10 10 60
ASX 79 51 78 59 / 10 0 10 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE POPS INTO THE NW QUAD OF THE FA TO AFTER
06Z. STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING THROUGH NW MN ARE
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE DRIER AIR. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS
OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FA AT 01Z WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A SLY
WIND TO USHER IN WARM/MOIST AIR. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH HAS KEPT THE NORTHLAND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WAA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
THIS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVE
AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE LATEST WRF-NMM ALSO DEPICTS THIS
ACTIVITY AND HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA. WE WILL
LEAVE IT OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN KEEP SOME SMALL POPS LATER
TONIGHT.
LOWER STABILITY WILL RESIDE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY...AND WE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
THERE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. WE THINK THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING AT THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ONE MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
GOOD CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST WITH A SOMEWHAT SPLIT FLOW IN THE
MID LVLS THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES OF NOTE IN THE NEXT
5 TO 7 DAYS. FIRST...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. SECOND...A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA AMIDST
A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST INITIAL PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA
HOWEVER GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MASS FIELDS TO HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. GEM REMAINS AN OUTLIER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
SO ITS OUTPUT WAS GIVEN LOWER CONSIDERATION. MAIN CHANGE TO
YESTERDAYS FCST WAS TO PUSH PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION MORE QUICKLY
MONDAY AS FRONTAL BDRY HEADS SOUTH AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE TUESDAY SHOULD ASSIST WITH STRENGTHENING
OF SFC HIGH AND WEDGE OF COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING DOWN LAKE INTO TWIN
PORTS. LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS DURING THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT DRY UNTIL NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO EXCEPT NEAR
IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. HAVE REMOVED THE VCSH MENTION FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL WHERE HAVE A VCSH MENTION
BEGINNING AT 09Z. CARRY THIS THROUGH 16Z PER LATEST NAM12 AND
HRRR/RAP. GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED AT INL/HIB/BRD AROUND
16Z...DIMINISHING NEAR 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 76 56 78 / 0 10 10 20
INL 55 80 58 74 / 20 20 30 60
BRD 55 81 59 81 / 0 10 20 40
HYR 49 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 46 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Thunderstorms over southern Illinois have nearly diminished late this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Storms that were over northwest
Missouri earlier this evening have moved northeast into Iowa and have
also decreased in intensity and areal coverage. Expect overall coverage
of storms to be minimal overnight. However, RAP and HRRR are showing
some indications of thunderstorms developing toward daybreak over
southern Missouri, so added slight chances over the southern
counties. Made only minor changes to temperatures.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Rain-cooled bubble of air from morning convection has left a
well-defined boundary which was near a Mexico-DeSoto at 1930z.
Despite the boundary, convection so far as been limited to one or
two cells over SE MO, as well as a couple of storms over central/n
central MO. Think that any storms that form on the boundary will
have trouble getting too far into the more stable airmass northeast
of this feature, so evening convection will likely primarily be limited
to areas west of the Mississippi River. While much of the evening
convection will be diurnally-driven, some shortwave energy may
brush northwest sections of the CWA during the late evening and
overnight hours, and have maintained low pops over this area
during this time period for this threat.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Through mid-week not seeing any major changes in sensible weather
trends across the FA. Region will remain in moist and modestly
unstable airmass, while weak disturbances ejecting out ahead of slow
moving upper low will occasionally impinge on this airmass.
It still appears that large scale PoP trends will continue
to exhibit a fairly decent diurnal swing, maxing out during the
afternoon with max heating and instability with a relative
(non-zero) minima during the late evening and overnight hours.
However, exact PoP trends will ultimately be dictated by the arrival
of the shortwave impulses, so fine-tuning of precip threat
will continue to be a short-term forecast exercise. It would appear
that the diurnal PoP swing will be most pronounced over our
southeast counties, where affects of upper level ridging will be
most pronounced.
Models have maintained very good consistency with movement of cutoff
low currently over the SW U.S, with the system moving east-southeast
as it encounters large scale ridging and into the ARKLATEX region by
Wednesday. While this is quite removed from our FA PoPs will remain
in the forecast as NWP solutions do hint at shortwaves rotating
around the system brushing sw sections of our area, with the
addition of weak shortwave energy also overtopping ridge and
dropping into the region. In addition to these features, forecast
sounding still suggest no real change in the AMS over the region,
so with little if any CIN some convective initiation should not
be too difficult to attain.
Heading into the latter part of the week the remnants of the upper
low drifts into the northern Gulf, leaving unseasonably strong
longwave ridge to dominate our weather. There does seem to be some
shear axis/weakness in the 5H field on Thursday that could aid in
storm development, but by Sat it would appear that any precip
threat will strictly be diurnally driven and very spotty. For now I`ve
continued going forecast trends and pushed PoPs towards climo by
Saturday. I`m wondering if Friday`s PoPs may still be too high,
but will watch upcoming model runs to get a better feel for this.
A greater precip threat should return to at least northern
sections of the area by next Sunday as a series of shortwaves
begin to flatten ridge.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal as
upper ridge keeps warm air anchored over the central CONUS, with
highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Sely winds will continue tonight, except at SUS/CPS where outflow
has left winds backed to ely. Winds will become light and vrb
after sunset. Expect winds to become swly Mon morning. TSRA is
expected to be lifting newd thru n central MO Mon morning and may
impact UIN. Otherwise, believe TSRA will hold off until Mon
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected thru the period
outside of any poss TSRA. Light winds tonight becoming swly on
Mon. With no one feature to key convection on Mon, have kept VCTS
during the late aftn hrs with isod to sct TSRA expected again,
diminishing after sunset.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
248 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PACIFIC FRONT TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...A DIFFERENT WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF WYOMING WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT
SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING.
AS OF 20Z...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST...AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID-50S. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND BACK ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SHEAR REMAIN MEAGER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONLY ABOUT 20
KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THUS...EXPECT VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
ORGANIZATION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA TOWARD
BILLINGS THIS EVENING...AS THE SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS WILL HELP TO
ORGANIZE SOME MULTICELLAR CLUSTERS. THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS LOW...WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL EXPECTED. THE STORM
MOTIONS WILL ALSO BE SLOW WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG STEERING FLOW.
THAT COMBINED WITH PW VALUES 0.75 INCHES TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
EAST...WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. GIVEN
THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DECENT HAIL CAPE AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXPECT THAT SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LOW- END SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR
AND STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING A WIDESPREAD
THREAT. AN AXIS OF DCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IS ALSO ANALYZED
ON MESOANALYSIS...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE INVERTED-V RAP SOUNDING
FOR KBIL. THUS CAN ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN BACK AROUND THE TO EAST WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. MODELS WANT TO BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY
EVENING...PRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR
COULD BE A LITTLE BETTER ON MONDAY THAN TODAY SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION MONDAY
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS IS
FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN AN OVERALL WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE HIGH-COUNTRY SNOW MELT...AND
ASSOCIATE RIVER RISES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE BEST ON TUESDAY...AND SHIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ANOTHER UPPER-LOW
TO DEVELOP OVER OREGON...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST...MODELS WANT TO PULL THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HEAVY RAIN. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER STORMS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/076 055/081 054/078 054/083 055/080 052/075 053/072
61/B 13/T 43/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 044/074 047/078 044/075 045/083 045/078 043/073 047/070
52/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 053/078 051/083 054/081 055/086 056/082 053/077 054/074
61/B 12/T 32/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 44/T
MLS 057/079 054/083 056/083 058/088 060/082 055/077 055/072
62/W 13/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 44/T
4BQ 055/078 054/083 055/083 057/089 059/083 055/077 054/073
52/W 12/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 34/T 44/T
BHK 056/079 052/080 055/080 057/085 059/081 053/076 055/071
62/W 13/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 33/T 44/T
SHR 050/074 047/079 049/079 050/085 054/081 050/074 050/071
52/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 34/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
939 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID UPDATE FOR MINOR
CHANGES TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z OAX SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED SINCE 12Z...WHICH WAS LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 1800
J/KG WITH LITTLE MLCIN. THIS WAS SUFFICIENT FOR ISO/SCT TSRA
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FA THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WITH THE THETA-E DIFF OF 22/DCAPE OF 900 J/KG...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HIGH PWAT. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...AND GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST WITH PWATS DECREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION IS AND DOWNSTREAM...BUT DECREASE TO SCHC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NEAR TERM WX HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST BUT SHORT-RANGE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG AXIS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTH. THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE EVENING SET UP
THE HRRR AND RAP DEPICT. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EVENING
FORECAST JUST IN CASE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TSTMS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COULD CREATE FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PW`S GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.50" THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH PCPN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK...THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SFC BOUNDARY TO
DROP INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
CONT TO BE A BIT MIXED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MAY BE TIED TO A LITTLE WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED OVERNIGHT IN COMPARISON TO LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH WE WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS DVLPG OVERNIGHT
AND REMAINING INTO THE DAY ON SUN...LIFTING TO VFR BY AFTN.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SOME SCT SHRA NEAR ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. WE COULD AGAIN SEE AFTN SCT TSRA ON MON BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NEAR TERM WX HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST BUT SHORT-RANGE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG AXIS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTH. THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE EVENING SET UP
THE HRRR AND RAP DEPICT. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EVENING
FORECAST JUST IN CASE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TSTMS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COULD CREATE FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PW`S GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.50" THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH PCPN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK...THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SFC BOUNDARY TO
DROP INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
CONT TO BE A BIT MIXED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MAY BE TIED TO A LITTLE WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED OVERNIGHT IN COMPARISON TO LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH WE WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS DVLPG OVERNIGHT
AND REMAINING INTO THE DAY ON SUN...LIFTING TO VFR BY AFTN.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SOME SCT SHRA NEAR ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. WE COULD AGAIN SEE AFTN SCT TSRA ON MON BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
710 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW EXISTS OVER ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN SOME AREAS ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES
ARE CURRENTLY NO LOWER THAN 5SM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
LITTLE FORCING TO INITIATE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER MOST
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING TO END BY 15Z. THE LATEST KLBF
SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT OF 1.23 INCHES WHICH IS 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN VERY NEAR
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NEAR 75 DEGREES. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
INDICATED BY MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE HRRR MODELS SEEMS THE MOST IN
LINE WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT TIED WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT AFTER 00Z...POPS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. ALSO A REPEAT OF PATCHY FOG IS FAVORABLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST AREAS AFTER 09Z.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED
CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW ATOP THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS BISECTING
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGHEST. IT APPEARS ONCE AGAIN
THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT
FORECAST PWATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
GREATER THAN 125% OR MORE OF AVERAGE...AND WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
15 KTS OR SO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW WILL RELUCTANTLY EJECT ONTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW WOULD FAVOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKEST.
WILL MAINTAIN 40 PERCENT MENTION...BUT LIMIT THE OTHER PERIODS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER AND
SLOWLY FILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ROCKIES/CENTRAL CONUS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL LIFT. THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO AT LEAST THURSDAY WHEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...THIS FORCES THE RIDGE EAST AND
ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AT KLBF...IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z AND VFR BY 18Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RETURN BY
06Z/25TH. AT KVTN...MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VFR BY
18Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW EXISTS OVER ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN SOME AREAS ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES
ARE CURRENTLY NO LOWER THAN 5SM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VERY
LITTLE FORCING TO INITIATE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER MOST
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING TO END BY 15Z. THE LATEST KLBF
SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT OF 1.23 INCHES WHICH IS 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN VERY NEAR
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NEAR 75 DEGREES. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
INDICATED BY MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE HRRR MODELS SEEMS THE MOST IN
LINE WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT TIED WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT AFTER 00Z...POPS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. ALSO A REPEAT OF PATCHY FOG IS FAVORABLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST AREAS AFTER 09Z.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED
CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW ATOP THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS BISECTING
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGHEST. IT APPEARS ONCE AGAIN
THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT
FORECAST PWATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
GREATER THAN 125% OR MORE OF AVERAGE...AND WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
15 KTS OR SO...DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW WILL RELUCTANTLY EJECT ONTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW WOULD FAVOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKEST.
WILL MAINTAIN 40 PERCENT MENTION...BUT LIMIT THE OTHER PERIODS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER AND
SLOWLY FILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ROCKIES/CENTRAL CONUS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL LIFT. THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO AT LEAST THURSDAY WHEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...THIS FORCES THE RIDGE EAST AND
ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO IFR AFTER 09Z AT KLBF WHILE
VFR CEILINGS FALL TO MVFR AFTER 09Z AT KVTN. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES. VISIBILITES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO 3-5SM BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
138 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BECOME EVIDENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RISING TO THEIR
HIGHEST LEVELS SO FAR IN 2014.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO [EVER SO SLOWLY] PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT RAIN HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTED OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS BUT NOTHING HAS MEASURED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
ANY CASE...THIS BAND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO FORM OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACROSS LINCOLN AND INTO
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER...WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER CLARK COUNTY AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL REALLY
ADVERTISING THIS IDEA AND FOR THE MOMENT HAVE CUT OFF THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE LINCOLN-CLARK BORDER. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXISTS OVER
THE SIERRA AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. THE BIGGER STORY
FOR SUNDAY WILL BE A MARKED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RISING 5-10 DEGREES OVER THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND BETTER MIXING
ALLOWING HIGHS TO ECLIPSE 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY REACHING 110 IN DEATH VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH THE HEAT PEAKING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS OVERHEAD. ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS BETWEEN 103 AND 105. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IS A
TOUCH COOLER THAN THAT BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
MONDAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS
105 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WOULD PUT US INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT
CRITERIA. WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND GREAT BASIN AS THE
REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WITH SOME TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE AMANDA WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH INTO THIS FLOW
AND BRING US A MORE MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE ARE PRETTY SLIM
BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY MOHAVE COUNTY,
WOULD BE THE BEST SUITED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH.
FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH REGARD TO
HOW TO HANDLE THE CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST. FOR NOW KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE
SETTLED TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS EXPECTED AN WILL LIKELY FLIRT
BETWEEN CONFIGS 2 AND 4 INTO THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12
KTS. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 04-05Z. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. NORTH OF LAS VEGAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES FOR SUNDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SIERRA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............OUTLER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1124 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY WILL START TO INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INCREASING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND
THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A GREATER RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM SUNDAY...ONE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS DIMINISHING AS IT
WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY LATE
THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS TO THE SOUTH WERE ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AND AERIAL EXTENT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NW FLOW
BASICALLY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATE LINE THROUGH OUR
CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING CUTTING OUT LEAVING ONLY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DRIVE
ANY CONVECTION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BUT CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR CLOSE TO NC/SC BORDER INLAND.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS OVER WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE THE NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHILE SFC WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF SE-S ORIENTATION AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION WITH SOME HIGHER DEBRIS CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS AREA. THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SOME
MODEST NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING LATE AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW
PUSHING SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO MAKE TONIGHT CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES ON MON WILL INCREASE TUE
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY MON
THOUGH SC COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. RETURN FLOW AROUND
WEST SIDE OF ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE 5H RIDGE AXIS STAYS WEST OF THE
AREA WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SC IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASED MOISTURE DOES OPEN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THUS WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP. HIGHS MON WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MON
NIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH TUE AS IT CONTINUES DRIFTING
EAST. THIS CAUSES MID LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST AND
RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 2SD ABOVE MEAN AND SEABREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TUE AFTERNOON. WILL BUMP POP TO
MID CHC AREA WIDE TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE PROSPECT OF RAINFALL...UNTIL DRYING FROM THE
NORTH PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS AMPLE
COLUMN FUEL FOR POTENTIAL RAIN GENERATION...AVERAGING 1.6"-1.8"
WED-SAT. STRONG LATE MAY SUNSHINE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ENOUGH TO TRIP
OFF A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY WED-SAT.
A DEEPER DRILLING OF TSTM MODE THIS PERIOD SHOWS VERY LOW BULK
SHEAR AND KINEMATIC ATTRIBUTES. THE WEAK COLUMN WINDS AND LAZY
STEERING FLOW...COUPLED WITH HIGH PWAT NUMBERS SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED DOWNPOURS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET DOWNBURSTS
AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING THE MOST LIKELY THREATS THIS PERIOD.
BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE STATES WED INTO THU WILL STRENGTHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS FEEBLE IN NATURE...IT WILL ABSOLUTELY PROVIDE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM IN LOCALLY SPIKED LOW-LEVEL LIFT...AND DIURNAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT CHANCE/SCT
POP VALUES PREVAIL WED-SAT.
ECMWF/GFS NOT AGREEING VERY WELL DAYS 6/7 BUT BOTH DRY BY SUNDAY.
THE EURO IS QUICKER TO BRING DRYING SOONER INTO THE WEEKEND SO
PLAYED A SLIGHT COMPROMISE...TAPERING POP VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
FIRING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES STORMS WILL FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING ANY TAF SITES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS AT KFLO ATTM.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT AS DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FAR INLAND PENETRATION OF
THE SEA BREEZE TODAY HAS SPIKED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...POCKETS OF
MVFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT FOG-PRONE SITES
LIKE KLBT AND KCRE. IFR SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE VFR WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 10
KTS INLAND AND 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KFLO
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE MAY HELP TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. SE TO S WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW MONDAY MORNING. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL LATE NIGHT JETTING SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE
VICINITY OF 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT INTO THIS EVE WITH 3 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH WILL ENHANCE
AFTERNOON SPEEDS A BIT...MORE SO ON TUE. ON MON SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH A SOLID 15 KT
EXPECTED TUE. HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE FOUND NEAR SHORE WHERE
SEABREEZE WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW. SEAS AROUND 2 FT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON AND 2 TO 4 FT DURING
TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE PLAGUED BY A WEAK AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT THIS FEATURE WILL TRIP OFF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT MARINE NAVIGATION. A FEW STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OVER...OR FORM OVER THE WATERS LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SW WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL EASE INTO EVENING AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME A MODERATE NE WIND THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY. WIND AND SEAS CONSEQUENTLY VERY MANAGEABLE. THE
LARGEST MENACE WILL BE STORMS...WHICH WILL BRING LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO OBTAIN A RADAR FIX
BEFORE HEADING OUT WED-FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 11 PM SUNDAY...HAVE LET COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 PM
TONIGHT AFTER RIVER LEVELS DID EXCEED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS REACHING
UP TO 5.63 IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE NEW MOON IS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES IS DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WATER
LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED AT THE BEACHES AT HIGH TIDE... ONLY
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...8
AVIATION...43/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY WILL START TO INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INCREASING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND
THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A GREATER RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SEA BREEZE PENETRATING WELL INLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...JUST ABOUT REACHING I95. STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG
STALLED FRONT OVER SC AND GA AND LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES REMAINING
OUTSIDE OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NW FLOW
BASICALLY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATELINE THROUGH OUR
CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SEA BREEZE
PENETRATING WELL INLAND AND DAYTIME HEATING CUTTING OUT...EXPECT
LESS OF CHC OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRAY SHWR CLOSE TO NC/SC BORDER INLAND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS
JUST BELOW THRESHOLD...EVEN W OF INTERSTATE 95. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE THE NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE SFC WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF SE-S ORIENTATION AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION WITH SOME HIGHER DEBRIS CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS AREA. THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SOME
MODEST NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING LATE AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW
PUSHING SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO MAKE TONIGHT CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES ON MON WILL INCREASE TUE
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY MON
THOUGH SC COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. RETURN FLOW AROUND
WEST SIDE OF ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE 5H RIDGE AXIS STAYS WEST OF THE
AREA WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SC IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASED MOISTURE DOES OPEN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THUS WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP. HIGHS MON WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MON
NIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH TUE AS IT CONTINUES DRIFTING
EAST. THIS CAUSES MID LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST AND
RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 2SD ABOVE MEAN AND SEABREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TUE AFTERNOON. WILL BUMP POP TO
MID CHC AREA WIDE TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE PROSPECT OF RAINFALL...UNTIL DRYING FROM THE
NORTH PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS AMPLE
COLUMN FUEL FOR POTENTIAL RAIN GENERATION...AVERAGING 1.6"-1.8"
WED-SAT. STRONG LATE MAY SUNSHINE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ENOUGH TO TRIP
OFF A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY WED-SAT.
A DEEPER DRILLING OF TSTM MODE THIS PERIOD SHOWS VERY LOW BULK
SHEAR AND KINEMATIC ATTRIBUTES. THE WEAK COLUMN WINDS AND LAZY
STEERING FLOW...COUPLED WITH HIGH PWAT NUMBERS SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED DOWNPOURS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WET DOWNBURSTS
AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING THE MOST LIKELY THREATS THIS PERIOD.
BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE STATES WED INTO THU WILL STRENGTHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS FEEBLE IN NATURE...IT WILL ABSOLUTELY PROVIDE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM IN LOCALLY SPIKED LOW-LEVEL LIFT...AND DIURNAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT CHANCE/SCT
POP VALUES PREVAIL WED-SAT.
ECMWF/GFS NOT AGREEING VERY WELL DAYS 6/7 BUT BOTH DRY BY SUNDAY.
THE EURO IS QUICKER TO BRING DRYING SOONER INTO THE WEEKEND SO
PLAYED A SLIGHT COMPROMISE...TAPERING POP VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
FIRING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES STORMS WILL FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING ANY TAF SITES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS AT KFLO ATTM.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT AS DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FAR INLAND PENETRATION OF
THE SEA BREEZE TODAY HAS SPIKED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...POCKETS OF
MVFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT FOG-PRONE SITES
LIKE KLBT AND KCRE. IFR SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE VFR WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 10
KTS INLAND AND 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KFLO
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE MAY HELP TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. SE TO S WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW MONDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY...10 TO 15 KT INTO THIS EVE. TONIGHT...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
LATE NIGHT JETTING SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE VICINITY OF 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT INTO THIS EVE WITH 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH WILL ENHANCE
AFTERNOON SPEEDS A BIT...MORE SO ON TUE. ON MON SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH A SOLID 15 KT
EXPECTED TUE. HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE FOUND NEAR SHORE WHERE
SEABREEZE WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW. SEAS AROUND 2 FT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON AND 2 TO 4 FT DURING
TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE PLAGUED BY A WEAK AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT THIS FEATURE WILL TRIP OFF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TSTMS WHICH COULD IMPACT MARINE NAVIGATION. A FEW STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OVER...OR FORM OVER THE WATERS LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SW WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL EASE INTO EVENING AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME A MODERATE NE WIND THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY. WIND AND SEAS CONSEQUENTLY VERY MANAGEABLE. THE
LARGEST MENACE WILL BE STORMS...WHICH WILL BRING LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO OBTAIN A RADAR FIX
BEFORE HEADING OUT WED-FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM 7 TO 10 PM TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER AS DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NEW MOON IS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES IS DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED AT THE BEACHES AT HIGH TIDE... ONLY
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON IS AT 8 PM AND AT THE BEACHES AT 6 PM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...8
AVIATION...43/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MUCAPE BETWEEN 1-2K STILL DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INCLUDING WARD AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. LATEST RADAR DOES INDEED STILL DEPICT SEVERAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA...AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...TRENDING POPS
DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 09Z AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
DECREASING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
UPDATED DISCUSSION...LOW CIGS FORECAST BY THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO THROW IN PATCHY FOG FOR
THESE AREAS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INCREASING
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AS THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATED...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE EVENING.
OPTED TO GO HIGHER SKY COVER WEST...SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE NAM/RAP/HRRR ALL INDICATING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
INCREASING UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ALMOST OUT OF MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MOST IF NOT ALL RADAR ACTIVITY NOW TO MY SOUTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING 1-2K MUCAPE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH STILL POP UP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SEVERE REST OF TONIGHT IS SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP.
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH...AND BACK ACROSS
THE WEST. IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING A CLOSER LOOK FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE IN 1-3 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND
FORKS TO JAMESTOWN INTO ASHLEY. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PUT AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER NW ND COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERALL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
MAIN JET REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MULTIPLE...BUT WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRIGGER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR WEST AND
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS VERSUS SOUTH AND EAST. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND DEEPEN AT TIMES ALONG THE
WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS
BRIEF RIDGE CREATES A LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C TO +22C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN
THE 80S GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING...LITTLE COOLER
IF THIS IS NOT ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATING MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST...IMPACTING KJMS-KBIS-KDIK. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR KDIK.
ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY 14-16Z MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KISN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS
FOR NOW.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AS THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATED...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE EVENING.
OPTED TO GO HIGHER SKY COVER WEST...SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE NAM/RAP/HRRR ALL INDICATING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
INCREASING UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ALMOST OUT OF MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MOST IF NOT ALL RADAR ACTIVITY NOW TO MY SOUTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING 1-2K MUCAPE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH STILL POP UP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SEVERE REST OF TONIGHT IS SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP.
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH...AND BACK ACROSS
THE WEST. IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING A CLOSER LOOK FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE IN 1-3 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND
FORKS TO JAMESTOWN INTO ASHLEY. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PUT AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER NW ND COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERALL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
MAIN JET REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MULTIPLE...BUT WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRIGGER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR WEST AND
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS VERSUS SOUTH AND EAST. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND DEEPEN AT TIMES ALONG THE
WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS
BRIEF RIDGE CREATES A LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C TO +22C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN
THE 80S GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING...LITTLE COOLER
IF THIS IS NOT ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATING WITH A SCT MVFR/LOW VFR
CIG FOR TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KISN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS
FOR NOW.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH/TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ALMOST OUT OF MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MOST IF NOT ALL RADAR ACTIVITY NOW TO MY SOUTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING 1-2K MUCAPE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH STILL POP UP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SEVERE REST OF TONIGHT IS SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP.
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH...AND BACK ACROSS
THE WEST. IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING A CLOSER LOOK FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE IN 1-3 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND
FORKS TO JAMESTOWN INTO ASHLEY. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PUT AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER NW ND COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERALL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
MAIN JET REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MULTIPLE...BUT WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRIGGER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR WEST AND
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS VERSUS SOUTH AND EAST. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND DEEPEN AT TIMES ALONG THE
WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS
BRIEF RIDGE CREATES A LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C TO +22C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN
THE 80S GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING...LITTLE COOLER
IF THIS IS NOT ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATING WITH A SCT MVFR/LOW VFR
CIG FOR TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KISN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS
FOR NOW.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH/TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
DETERMINING IF IT WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FIRST THING`S FIRST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY OVER SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ORGANIZING INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING INTO
ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS
AND ECMWF FORECASTS...A RETURN TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE VERY WET
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND IS ADVERTISED. LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
EXPECT A WARM WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C OR IN THE LOWER 20C
RANGE. SOME SUNSHINE UNDER THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KBIS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS OVER AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT FLOW HAS PICKED UP MORE THAN
THE MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH A SURFACE LOW ENTERING
NORTHERN MANITOBA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS TO BE VALID. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER NUMEROUS CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND IMPACTED
SPOTTERS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY
(NORTHERN BULEIGH...KIDDER...AND EASTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTIES)...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING AND AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES SINCE THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY FLOODING IMPACTS. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE AREAS WILL HAVE MUCH LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS
UPDATE. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 19Z...THEN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE FRESHENED UP
PRODUCTS HAVE BE SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE TO BLEND THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT
TO THE 06 UTC LARGER SCALE DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND THE HIGH
RESOLUTION 08-09 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH CONVECTIVE HAZARDS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED WITH ONLY
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WELLS AND FOSTER
COUNTIES. STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WITH STORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC 5 PERCENT RISK
AREA FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. AM EXPECTING A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...DECENT
INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THREATS INCLUDE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREAS HIT HARD BY RECENT RAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S AGAIN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS SUPPORTS NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS
FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN
THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS HIGHER ON SUNDAY CENTRAL. CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10-15
KTS PROMOTES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...HARD TO RULE OUT ANY SINGLE DAY WHERE AT LEAST A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING TRANSPORTING SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KBIS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER NUMEROUS CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND IMPACTED
SPOTTERS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY
(NORTHERN BULEIGH...KIDDER...AND EASTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTIES)...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING AND AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES SINCE THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY FLOODING IMPACTS. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE AREAS WILL HAVE MUCH LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS
UPDATE. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 19Z...THEN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE FRESHENED UP
PRODUCTS HAVE BE SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE TO BLEND THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT
TO THE 06 UTC LARGER SCALE DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND THE HIGH
RESOLUTION 08-09 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH CONVECTIVE HAZARDS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED WITH ONLY
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WELLS AND FOSTER
COUNTIES. STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WITH STORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC 5 PERCENT RISK
AREA FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. AM EXPECTING A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...DECENT
INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THREATS INCLUDE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREAS HIT HARD BY RECENT RAIN...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S AGAIN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS SUPPORTS NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS
FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN
THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS HIGHER ON SUNDAY CENTRAL. CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10-15
KTS PROMOTES THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...HARD TO RULE OUT ANY SINGLE DAY WHERE AT LEAST A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING TRANSPORTING SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS OF
TSRA AT KDIK...KISN AND KBIS FOR FAVORED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
PERIODS...AND KEPT VCTS AT KMOT AND KJMS WHERE THUNDERSTORM TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS OVERNIGHT. THE 04Z RAP GUIDANCE
HAS LOCKED IN REASONABLY WELL ON THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS MODEL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES THE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
GENERATES SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND REPEAT STORMS HAVE LED TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN BURLEIGH COUNTY AND KIDDER
COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED EARLIER FOR EASTERN
STUTSMAN COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING...AND
FORTUNATELY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS NOT OCCURRED OVER THE SAME AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HYDRO SITUATION OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STORMS HAVE PULSED UP BRIEFLY...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING STORMS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS IN TERMS OF HAIL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION TONIGHT. EARLIER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO HAVE LAID AN EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY ALONG INTERSTATE 94
WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH. HAVE THUS KEPT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING WAS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94. MOST SIGNIFICANT IS IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA WHERE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEGUN TO BACK BUILD INTO THE JAMESTOWN
AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN MAY ALSO
MOVE INTO THIS AREA WHERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SOUTHERN STUTSMAN COUNTY...THEN TAPERED
TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HERE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CU FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA IN AREA OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OUR EAST IN FGF CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
JAMES VALLEY REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER WITH LOW POPS DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING
1500-2500 J/KG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NUDGING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ND ALTHOUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR IS LIMITED WITH
BEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH BY AFTERNOON.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT PLACEMENT FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS. SPC HAS WESTERN
ND IN /SEE TEXT/ DISCUSSION FOR POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CIRCULATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL PEEL OFF AND GET ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT AS IT SLIDES OVER A LEE SIDE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA. IN DOING
SO EXPECT THIS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMES A COLD
FRONT AND MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALONG
THE FRONT...THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT TO 35KT IS FORECAST TO
LINE UP WITH BULLS EYE OF THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY...BEING WEST OF
BISMARCK AT 18Z...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ALREADY HAVE THE FRONT
JUST EAST OF BISMARCK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP
WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE LIKELY POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND. THERE ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHEAR VALUES
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALSO WEAKER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A DRY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
ON MONDAY...THE GEM/ECMWF SHOW A FLATTER HEIGHT FIELD VERSUS THE GFS
WHICH HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED H7-H5 RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING ANY THREAT
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM ENTERING THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THE
DOMINANT UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH. DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIME.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS WANTS TO BUILD A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF BRIEFLY
SHOWS THIS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SHIFTS IT EAST
WITH A RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A BRIEF BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OCCURS OR WILL IT BE MORE OF AN EXTENDED BREAK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 80S
IF THE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE AND DOMINATES TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CONVECTION REMAINS AROUND AND TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER THROUGH AROUND 09Z. OTHERWISE...THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA HAS MOVED NORTH OF KDIK AND KBIS SO HAVE REMOVED VCTS
AT REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROUGHT VCTS ACROSS ALL AERODROMES
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL SLOWLY BUILD SE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MEMORIAL DAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH SE THRU
CENTRAL PA LATE TUE OR WED...THEN STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN PA THRU
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE APPALACHIANS IS SUSTAINING A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS AM. LOWERING INVERSION HGT SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING...BTWN 10Z-14Z BASED
ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHORTWAVE OVR SE ONTARIO AT 10Z IS SLATED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY/S IN SOME RESPECTS...MIXED
LAYER/MU CAPES SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG HIGHER...WITH
SIMILARLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS A GREATER
PORTION OF THE CWA.
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA LOOK TO BE A
GOOD BET AT THIS POINT FOR PRACTICALLY ANY LOCATION. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.
MDL 8H TEMPS NR 9C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY FROM THE U60S
OVR THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AND CU COLLAPSE THIS EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE STATE AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. CLEAR SKY...LGT
WIND AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MAY WITH
MINS NEAR 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTH...AND
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HEADED SE TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MDL SFC
RH FIELDS IMPLY PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ARND DAWN IN THE VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
RISING HGTS/WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SUNDAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS RISING TO NR 11C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SE OF PA ON MEMORIAL DAY...USHERING IN A
WARMER RETURN SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT RISE...GEFS MAINTAINS A
RELATIVE PWAT MINIMUM OVR PA...INDICATING DRY WX AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY. 8H TEMPS RISING TO NR 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
LG SCALE PATTERN IN MED RANGE MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH
OF PA ON TUESDAY. WESTERLY LL JET/PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENG
APPEARS LKLY TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SE ACROSS PA TUE
NIGHT/WED. AFTER A WARM TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW
APPEAR LIKELY OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA WED/THU...WHILE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS WESTERN PA COULD PROMOTE SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVR THE W MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INVERSION LOWERING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN LOWER LEVELS BUILDS INTO
THE REGION TODAY...BUT TRAPPED MOISTURE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH 14Z...MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM KAOO-KUNV-KIPT WITH IFR/LIFR FROM KBFD-
KJST...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING AN INCREASE TO LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. PROB LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
DRIER AIR AND GENERALLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN.
.OUTLOOK...
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
606 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL SLOWLY BUILD SE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MEMORIAL DAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH SE THRU
CENTRAL PA LATE TUE OR WED...THEN STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN PA THRU
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE APPALACHIANS IS SUSTAINING A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS AM. LOWERING INVERSION HGT SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING...BTWN 10Z-14Z BASED
ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHORTWAVE OVR SE ONTARIO AT 10Z IS SLATED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY/S IN SOME RESPECTS...MIXED
LAYER/MU CAPES SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG HIGHER...WITH
SIMILARLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS A GREATER
PORTION OF THE CWA.
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA LOOK TO BE A
GOOD BET AT THIS POINT FOR PRACTICALLY ANY LOCATION. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.
MDL 8H TEMPS NR 9C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY FROM THE U60S
OVR THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AND CU COLLAPSE THIS EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE STATE AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. CLEAR SKY...LGT
WIND AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MAY WITH
MINS NEAR 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTH...AND
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HEADED SE TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MDL SFC
RH FIELDS IMPLY PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ARND DAWN IN THE VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
RISING HGTS/WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY SUNDAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS RISING TO NR 11C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SE OF PA ON MEMORIAL DAY...USHERING IN A
WARMER RETURN SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT RISE...GEFS MAINTAINS A
RELATIVE PWAT MINIMUM OVR PA...INDICATING DRY WX AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY. 8H TEMPS RISING TO NR 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
LG SCALE PATTERN IN MED RANGE MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH
OF PA ON TUESDAY. WESTERLY LL JET/PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENG
APPEARS LKLY TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SE ACROSS PA TUE
NIGHT/WED. AFTER A WARM TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW
APPEAR LIKELY OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA WED/THU...WHILE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS WESTERN PA COULD PROMOTE SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVR THE W MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INVERSION LOWERING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT TRAPPED MOISTURE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
DECK ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
KAOO-KUNV-KIPT WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING FROM KBFD-KJST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AND RANGE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 10-14Z AS WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLDER AIR STILL IN
PLACE ALOFT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH AND INCREASING
LAPSE RATES FURTHER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR AND GENERALLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN.
.OUTLOOK...
.MON...VFR.
.TUE AND WED...AREAS OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
TO CROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
SUSTAINING STRATOCU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM.
LOWERING INVERSION HGT SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING...BTWN 10Z-14Z BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
THE CLOUD COVER AND A NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH FROM 06Z READINGS...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY RANGING FROM THE
M40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M50S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND RATHER WELL DEFINED SFC TROUGH IS SLATED TO
DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY/S IN SOME
RESPECTS...MIXED LAYER/MU CAPES SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG HIGHER...WITH SIMILARLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD
ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA.
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA LOOK TO BE A
GOOD BET AT THIS POINT FOR PRACTICALLY ANY LOCATION.
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5F DEG HIGHER THAN
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 8-10F
WARMER.
GRADUAL CLEARING SAT NIGHT AND LIGHT WIND LATE WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS NEAR 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD
SPOTS OF THE NORTH...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HEADED SE TO THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WESTERLY AS
THE REGION SITS BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES TRYING TO BUILD
NORTHWARD.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING OUT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS REMAINS THE HIGHEST CHC
OF RAINFALL IN AN OTHERWISE DRY EXTENDED FCST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MONDAY AND TUE...WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOLLOWING THE MID WEEK FROPA FOR THRU
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INVERSION LOWERING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT TRAPPED MOISTURE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
DECK ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
KAOO-KUNV-KIPT WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING FROM KBFD-KJST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AND RANGE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 10-14Z AS WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLDER AIR STILL IN
PLACE ALOFT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH AND INCREASING
LAPSE RATES FURTHER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR AND GENERALLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN.
.OUTLOOK...
.MON...VFR.
.TUE AND WED...AREAS OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
TO CROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
SUSTAINING STRATOCU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM.
LOWERING INVERSION HGT SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING...BTWN 10Z-14Z BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
THE CLOUD COVER AND A NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH FROM 06Z READINGS...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY RANGING FROM THE
M40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M50S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND RATHER WELL DEFINED SFC TROUGH IS SLATED TO
DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY/S IN SOME
RESPECTS...MIXED LAYER/MU CAPES SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG HIGHER...WITH SIMILARLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD
ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA.
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA LOOK TO BE A
GOOD BET AT THIS POINT FOR PRACTICALLY ANY LOCATION.
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5F DEG HIGHER THAN
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 8-10F
WARMER.
GRADUAL CLEARING SAT NIGHT AND LIGHT WIND LATE WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS NEAR 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD
SPOTS OF THE NORTH...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HEADED SE TO THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WESTERLY AS
THE REGION SITS BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES TRYING TO BUILD
NORTHWARD.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING OUT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS REMAINS THE HIGHEST CHC
OF RAINFALL IN AN OTHERWISE DRY EXTENDED FCST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MONDAY AND TUE...WILL BE
KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOLLOWING THE MID WEEK FROPA FOR THRU
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR STREAMS OVER THE
NW MTNS AND THE LAURELS. MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST PA...THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT THESE WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE REGION DECOUPLES BY 06Z. MVFR AND LOWER
CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT JST...WITH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THSE
CONDITIONS AT BFD SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 12Z...TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR BY 15Z. JST SHOULD LOWER
OVERNIGHT TO IFR BEFORE LIFTING BY 12Z.
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR AND GENERALLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN.
.OUTLOOK...
.SUN...AM FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE AND WED...AREAS OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER GEORGIA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BE BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 1045 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER CALM EVENING IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE MIDLANDS LEAVING
BEHIND A DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
60S TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS. PULLED ALL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LEFT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY BENIGN ATTM WITH
MAINLY SCT CU OVER SOME OF THE MTNS AND WRN UPSTATE. UNDER STILL
BRISK MID-UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...MTN WAVE CIRRUS CONTINUE TO KEEP
MCLDY SKIES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. THESE AREAS WERE
HIT PRETTY HARD WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE TSTM CLUSTER THIS MORNING AND
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN KEPT STABLE BY THIS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
CIRRUS. S AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLATED TSRA ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WHERE 1500-2000 J OF UNCAPPED SBCAPE IS SHOWN ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS. INDEED A COUPLE OF CELLS ARE STARTING TO GO UP OVER
PICKENS COUNTY. THE 12Z NCEP HIRES WINDOW RUNS REINFORCE SUGGESTIONS
OF NUMEROUS HRRR AND RAP RUNS THAT ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL KICK OFF IN
THE SMOKIES AND IN THE UPSTATE EAST OF SPARTANBURG. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KT...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...STORMS WILL BE
QUITE CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND/HAIL. SVR WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR THE SRN
TIER OF THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS...THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THRU TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO PUSH SWD THRU
MOST OF THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK...PUSHING THROUGH THE
ERN SC PIEDMONT THEREAFTER. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE GULF STATES...THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FULLY
IMPACT THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES TO THE POINT THAT
ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEFTY SBCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WEST OF
GSP...BUT SREF PROBS SUGGEST VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL NOT GET THIS
HIGH. I WILL INCLUDE A SCHC FOR DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AND AREAS JUST SOUTH WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
SUGGESTED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
BUT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MEANING WE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BUT THAT HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE A BIT AS
THE TROF OFF THE EAST COAST DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MIGRATE FROM THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY REGION TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. ONCE
THIS HAPPENS...WE CAN EXPECT SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THAT WILL PUT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GEORGIA BACK INTO A REGIME WHERE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WERE LIMITED TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY OWING TO THE LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE NAM...BUT THEN WERE ALLOWED TO GO UP TO A
CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WERE INCREMENTALLY BETTER. TEMPS WILL CREEP UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...
AND THEN RISE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER FOR MONDAY...AROUND 80 IN THE
MTN VALLEYS AND MIDDLE 80S E OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND AN EMBEDDED H5 LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND REMAIN OVER THAT
REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLUTION OVER OUR REGION...WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIG CHANGES THRU DAY
7 WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SLY FLOW WITH A TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. EARLY IN THE DAY...A FAIRLY
ROBUST LOW DEEPENS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS A
SWATH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW WILL MAKE WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS. I WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TIME BEING AND THUS I DONT EXPECT THE COOLER/DRIER AIR TO PENETRATE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND INTO
THE REGION...HOWEVER ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ONCE IT MAKES TO THE CAROLINAS.
AT ANY RATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE SENSIBLE FCST. I
DID INCREASE POPS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SOLID CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TS FOR WED AND THURS. OTHERWISE...I
CARRY A SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR SH AND TS EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY THREAT OF SVR OR WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY AND GRADUALLY DROP THRU THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AS DRY
AIR FILTERS IN ACRS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT THAT PASSED
THRU FRIDAY WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KAND. GUIDANCE HINTS
THAT THERE MAY BE ENUF MOISTURE LINGERING FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLD SHRA
OR TSRA ACRS THE SW ESCARPMENT WEST OF KAVL/KGMU/KAND. THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS PER THE CAPPED FCST SNDGS. SO
GOING WITH JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH A LIGHT N TO NE WIND THRU
DAYBREAK. THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SE TO SW AND REMAIN LIGHT
THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY...BRINGING BACK A BETTER
CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA. AFTN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
950 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE DOWN TO 1.2
INCHES. BUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 12Z MONDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THR BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN
A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY TO NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP NEAR A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE REGION OF
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MOIST INFLOW INTO THIS REGION
WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. 23Z HRRR MODEL
SEEM TO REPRESENT CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...AND SHOWS BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY UNTIL AROUND 06Z
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTH TEXAS. RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT AFTER 06Z FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND. EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS REGION TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE. MAY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT LRD THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES
BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST...INCREASING
STABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN STORMS...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REACH ALI-CRP-VCT. IN ANY OF THE STORMS NEAR
LRD...GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...CLIPPING
NORTHERN AREAS FROM ALI-VCT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ACTIVITY FOR THE TAF
SITES FOR NOW.
OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENT...MVFR/VFR CIG MIX EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING FROM EAST TO WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME
FROM 14Z-17Z...WITH SE WIND 15-20KT DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 86 75 89 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 71 86 71 87 72 / 10 40 20 30 20
LAREDO 76 90 76 98 76 / 30 30 20 10 10
ALICE 74 88 73 91 73 / 20 30 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 76 83 75 84 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 88 72 92 71 / 40 40 30 20 20
KINGSVILLE 76 88 75 91 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 76 84 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE. MAY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT LRD THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES
BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST...INCREASING
STABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN STORMS...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REACH ALI-CRP-VCT. IN ANY OF THE STORMS NEAR
LRD...GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...CLIPPING
NORTHERN AREAS FROM ALI-VCT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ACTIVITY FOR THE TAF
SITES FOR NOW.
OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENT...MVFR/VFR CIG MIX EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING FROM EAST TO WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME
FROM 14Z-17Z...WITH SE WIND 15-20KT DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT ON HAVING UPPER JET IMPACT THE WESTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST (AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/WEAKEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME HINT OF THIS IN
OLD MEXICO NOW...AND CONVECTION SOUTH OF KDRT (AREA IN LFQ OF
JET). TTU 4 KM AND HRRR 4 KM ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER OLD MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARD RIO GRANDE BY
EVENING...LOOKING TO BE NON-SEVERE BUT MAYBE STRONG. SPC MODEL
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION (AND NORMALLY THAT IS THE CASE).
THINK ANY CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE WILL BE IN THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND COULD COME MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST
(MEXICO/EWX CWA) THAN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST (BEST INSTABILITY
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT). SINCE SEVERE CONCERN IS VERY
BORDERLINE...AM NOT GOING TO PUT SEVERE IN THE FORECAST (AS MOST
OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTY WILL NOT BE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
ANYWAY). CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE (AND SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT) STARTS TO CREEP THAT
WAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST...
EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING WITH
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...A BIT COOLER MONDAY
THAN SUNDAY (SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST)...THEN MAYBE A DEGREE
COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GET A TAD WEAKER. STARTING TO LOOK
LIKE SUMMER WITH PERSISTENCE STARTING TO BE THE PREFERRED FORECAST
W.R.T. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SCEC CONDTIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE GRADIENT
WEAKENS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT. DRIEST AIR REMAINS OUT TO THE EAST
NEAR THE WATERS AND THUS AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING RAIN
OVER THE WATERS FOR NOW. MAYBE AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN STORY IN THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
WEAKENING. THE DISSIPATING LOW WILL SAG SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA
MID-WEEK. EURO CONTINUES TO HOLD A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TO THE LOW
THAN THE GFS. CANADIAN HAS NOW PULLED THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WEAKENING. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW FORECAST RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE FORECAST.
A DIURNAL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING...MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
DAILY AND WEAKENING OUT WEST OVERNIGHT. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WHERE BEST
MOISTURE EXISTS. PWAT GETS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES IN VICTORIA
AREA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES
GET MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISAGREE
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...GFS BEING DRIER THAN ECMWF. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WARMEST DAYS LOOK LIKE TUES/WED BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
STEAD IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 86 75 89 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 71 86 71 87 72 / 10 30 20 30 20
LAREDO 76 90 76 98 76 / 30 30 20 10 10
ALICE 74 88 73 91 73 / 10 20 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 76 83 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 88 72 92 71 / 30 40 30 20 20
KINGSVILLE 76 88 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 76 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MORNING MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT NORTH
TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS RAIN-FREE THROUGH ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES. SINCE MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WE WILL KEEP ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB OVER NORTH
TEXAS...DEVELOPING MORNING CONVECTION THAT IS NOT OCCURRING. I
THINK THAT THE MCV MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE PARIS AREA HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT...AND MORNING
SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWED NO DEEP AREAS OF INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION. I WILL THEREFORE REMOVE THE MORNING VCTS. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND THAT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN IT AS WELL...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCTS INTO THE TAFS AT 21Z. CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION/TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE POOR GUIDANCE...AND THE FORECAST
IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE MORNING SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...PLUS THE FACT THAT 12Z NAM AND 13Z RAP DO APPEAR DRIER
THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ THAT WAS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENVILLE AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT WITH THE MCV MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FROM WEST TEXAS POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE LEFT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 3 AM /08Z/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY FILL AND SINK SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM
COMING UP WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS WEAKENS THIS SYSTEM SO MUCH THAT IT BECOMES DIFFUSE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THAT THE
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SINK SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO
INCREASE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THE RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH. HAVE ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BASED ON ECMWF SOLUTION.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 68 88 70 85 / 30 20 20 20 30
WACO, TX 85 67 87 69 84 / 20 20 20 20 40
PARIS, TX 82 65 85 66 82 / 40 10 20 20 30
DENTON, TX 84 67 85 68 82 / 30 20 20 30 30
MCKINNEY, TX 83 66 85 69 83 / 30 20 20 20 30
DALLAS, TX 85 69 87 70 84 / 30 20 20 20 30
TERRELL, TX 86 68 87 69 85 / 20 10 20 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 84 67 87 68 84 / 20 10 20 20 30
TEMPLE, TX 85 66 86 67 83 / 20 20 20 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 85 64 86 68 82 / 30 20 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
936 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB OVER NORTH
TEXAS...DEVELOPING MORNING CONVECTION THAT IS NOT OCCURRING. I
THINK THAT THE MCV MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE PARIS AREA HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT...AND MORNING
SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWED NO DEEP AREAS OF INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION. I WILL THEREFORE REMOVE THE MORNING VCTS. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND THAT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN IT AS WELL...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCTS INTO THE TAFS AT 21Z. CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION/TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE POOR GUIDANCE...AND THE FORECAST
IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE MORNING SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...PLUS THE FACT THAT 12Z NAM AND 13Z RAP DO APPEAR DRIER
THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ THAT WAS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENVILLE AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT WITH THE MCV MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FROM WEST TEXAS POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE LEFT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 3 AM /08Z/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY FILL AND SINK SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM
COMING UP WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS WEAKENS THIS SYSTEM SO MUCH THAT IT BECOMES DIFFUSE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THAT THE
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SINK SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO
INCREASE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THE RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH. HAVE ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BASED ON ECMWF SOLUTION.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 68 88 70 85 / 30 20 20 20 30
WACO, TX 85 67 87 69 84 / 20 20 20 20 40
PARIS, TX 82 65 85 66 82 / 40 10 20 20 30
DENTON, TX 84 67 85 68 82 / 30 20 20 30 30
MCKINNEY, TX 83 66 85 69 83 / 30 20 20 20 30
DALLAS, TX 85 69 87 70 84 / 30 20 20 20 30
TERRELL, TX 86 68 87 69 85 / 20 10 20 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 84 67 87 68 84 / 20 10 20 20 30
TEMPLE, TX 85 66 86 67 83 / 20 20 20 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 85 64 86 68 82 / 30 20 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.AVIATION...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING THIS WAY
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BELIEVE THAT THE DHT TAF SITE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 17Z. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
AMA TAF SITE AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS WITH TEMPO TSRA
THERE AS WELL BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z. THE GUY TAF SITE SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS GO AROUND. ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS AND OR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE...SO WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OF THEM OUT IN THE LATE PART OF THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014/
UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS CONVECTION MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ THE TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THE CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE HRRR AND TTU WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...INCLUDING MOVING NEAR THE KAMA
TERMINAL BETWEEN 08-11Z. POSSIBLE FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE
KAMA TERMINAL HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INSERT -TSRA INTO THE FORECAST. IN FACT WHILE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO
NOT PUT IN A MENITON OF -TSRA IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE
OF THE RAIN POTENTIAL...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIRATE TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE FOR CIGS TO LOWER EVEN FUTHER TO IFR
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LIGHT UPSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW IN GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER
NORTH TEXAS /WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S/.
THINK THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE AT KAMA AS WINDS WILL BE
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH THAN THE SOUTHEAST AT KGUY/KDHT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: WE`VE SEEN A LULL IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LULL MAY OR MAY NOT BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THANKS TO SOME CLEARING,
THE AIR MASS EAST OF THESE STORMS HAS RECOVERED FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.
THEREFORE, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, AS THE CONVECTION
APPROACHES THE STATE LINE, IT WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS PUNCH SINCE THE
AIR MASS HAS NOT RECOVERED MUCH ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
NONETHELESS, SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOUNTAIN-INDUCED, IT WILL
PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER 8 PM AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 3 AM. THINK THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF A BOISE CITY TO AMARILLO LINE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PROVIDED NO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ROLL ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING, THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUR WAY. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALL BUT GUARANTEED SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THIS MAY CAUSE MORE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ONLY BE ENHANCED IF A
STATIONARY CONVECTIVE COLD POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND ALLOWS
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ALSO
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET BETWEEN 2 PM AND 11 PM AS LONG AS NO
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OCCUR TONIGHT. MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1500 J/KG TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE, AND THEY WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SUNDAY`S SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE GREATLY ON
HOW FAST CONVECTION DISSIPATES/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THERE IS NO/VERY LITTLE PRE-CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY, A HEALTHY
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF AN ELKHART
TO HEREFORD LINE WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INCREASE UP TO 40 KT. HODOGRAPH PROFILES
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IF A DOMINANT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS, MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CIN, AND SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT). HOWEVER, SUNDAY`S
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEMORIAL DAY-FRIDAY: ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
MEMORIAL DAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF AN ELKHART TO HEREFORD LINE. HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES START
TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF LIFTING
MECHANISM INTERACT WITH THE MOIST, MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
JACKSON
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CURB FUEL DRYNESS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALMOST
MOST DAYS...AND THEY COULD POSE A SMALL RISK FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO
LIGHTNING.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
449 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT IT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TRYING TO PLOW INTO
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
IS SENDING AN ARCING AREA OF CIRRUS INTO WISCONSIN. OTHER MIDDLE
CLOUD COVER INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MODELS PROJECT THE 850-700MB
MOISTURE RETURN TO BYPASS THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA COULD SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER AREA OF CIRRUS WILL ALSO PUSH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT TOO.
SO INCREASED SKY COVER INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. BUT BY AND
LARGE...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. HIGHER PWATS WILL ALSO BE
ROTATING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO A FEW FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE PRIMARY ISSUE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE BRINGING VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TO SOME
DEGREE AS A NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DECREASE HEIGHTS A TAD...BUT OVERALL
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT PCPN CHANCES WILL BE PEPPERED OVER THE REGION
DUE TO SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING GROUND A BIT
LONGER. PROGS SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR OVER MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. DID
NOT WANT TO GO COMPLETELY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
AREAS DUE TO WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL THE SURFACE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE WITH THE FRONT BUT
WITH LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AIDED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MORE OF SUMMER TYPE WITH CONVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT OBSERVED...A BLEND OF THE
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS THE
OUTLIER WITH A DRIER FORECAST AND DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE A DRIER PERIOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NUDGING SOUTHWARD AND
THE UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASING AGAIN. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY
AGAIN ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO AGAIN A SIMILAR SITUATION DEVELOPING
WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. GFS IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN INTO SATURDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
TOTAL TOTALS CLIMB TO THE MID OR UPPER 40S MONDAY AND DO NOT
EXCEED THOSE NUMBERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEST CAPE NUMBERS ALSO
FOCUSED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR MOST LIKELY
PERIODS OF CONVECTION. PWATS CLIMB TO TO 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT UNDER THE RIDGE...ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY LOCALIZED RAINFALL.
WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE NEARSHORE AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE FRONT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 447 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
QUIET WX WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SFC HIGH
LINGERS ACRS THE AREA. HIGH WL BEGIN TO EDGE E BY LATE TOMORROW...
ALLOWING INCRG CLDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHC OF SHRA BY LATE SUN
NGT/MON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT IT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TRYING TO PLOW INTO
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
IS SENDING AN ARCING AREA OF CIRRUS INTO WISCONSIN. OTHER MIDDLE
CLOUD COVER INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MODELS PROJECT THE 850-700MB
MOISTURE RETURN TO BYPASS THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA COULD SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER AREA OF CIRRUS WILL ALSO PUSH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT TOO.
SO INCREASED SKY COVER INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. BUT BY AND
LARGE...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. HIGHER PWATS WILL ALSO BE
ROTATING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO A FEW FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE PRIMARY ISSUE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE BRINGING VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TO SOME
DEGREE AS A NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DECREASE HEIGHTS A TAD...BUT OVERALL
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT PCPN CHANCES WILL BE PEPPERED OVER THE REGION
DUE TO SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING GROUND A BIT
LONGER. PROGS SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR OVER MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. DID
NOT WANT TO GO COMPLETELY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
AREAS DUE TO WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL THE SURFACE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE WITH THE FRONT BUT
WITH LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AIDED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MORE OF SUMMER TYPE WITH CONVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT OBSERVED...A BLEND OF THE
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS THE
OUTLIER WITH A DRIER FORECAST AND DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE A DRIER PERIOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NUDGING SOUTHWARD AND
THE UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASING AGAIN. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY
AGAIN ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO AGAIN A SIMILAR SITUATION DEVELOPING
WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. GFS IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN INTO SATURDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
TOTAL TOTALS CLIMB TO THE MID OR UPPER 40S MONDAY AND DO NOT
EXCEED THOSE NUMBERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEST CAPE NUMBERS ALSO
FOCUSED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR MOST LIKELY
PERIODS OF CONVECTION. PWATS CLIMB TO TO 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT UNDER THE RIDGE...ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY LOCALIZED RAINFALL.
WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE NEARSHORE AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE FRONT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SCT MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
243 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP LOCATIONS AND TIMING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS A BIT CONCERNING AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF IS
MAKING ITS WAY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM OVER CONVERSE COUNTY AND OVER THE SNOWY RANGE. EVEN
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION UNDER THE
CIRRUS BLOWOFF EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE
SLOW...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT.
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OUT OF COLORADO. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON QPF
PLACEMENT. GFS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. ECMWF HITTING THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
OVER TO THE SNOWY RANGE...WHILE THE NAM IS HITTING THE SNOWY RANGE
PRETTY GOOD. DID A BLEND OF THE MODELS ON QPF HITTING THE
MOUNTAINS PRETTY HARD WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TONIGHT. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
STALLED OUT THUNDERSTORMS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...PWATS OUT BY RAWLINS
ARE UP TO 3/4THS OF AN INCH. WHERE EVER THESE STORMS
DEVELOP...FOLKS UNDERNEATH THEM ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF RAIN.
ONE LAST ITEM OF CONCERN...LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS CONVECTION
FURTHER EAST...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOST OF
LARAMIE COUNTY. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THE EVENING SHIFT
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCHES AS THEY ARE THOUGH...GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS.
PRECIP WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL COLORADO. VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL WYOMING. ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST
BULLISH ON QPF...WITH WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWFA. ALL THREE MODELS ARE HITTING THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BASED
ON THIS TREND FOR A MAJOR RAIN ON SNOW EVENT OUT THERE. WILL
UPDATE THE HWO TO HIT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SUNDAY. LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FOR CARBON COUNTY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500J/KG. WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OUT THERE TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN SOME AREAS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE WITH
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW TO MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT
WORKS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS AND THE NEXT LOW SWINGING DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTENOONS...BUT OVERALL
MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND FAIRLY WARM IN THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME. SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB
TEMPS AT +14C OVER THE WESTERN ZONES COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
SNOWMELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIDWEEK AS WELL (SOMETHING THAT
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH). BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
INTEREST WE NOW NOTE HOW THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DRAW
PACIFIC MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FROM WHAT WOULD
POSSIBLY BE LEFTOVER OF A SHEARED-OUT TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA. IT
IS WAY TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS NOW TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CONVECTION/STORMS STARTING TO INITIATE OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON AND
CONVERSE COUNTIES IN WYOMING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...AND WE EXPECT
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING A MORE NUMEROUS AROUND SE
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SOMEWHAT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF I-25 TODAY WHERE THE
WHERE BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAVE BEEN QUICKER TO
OCCUR AND CONVECTION IS ALREADY GETTING AN EARLY START. CARRIED
VCNTY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS 2 PM-9 PM AT ALL SITES BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO PIN IT DOWN WITH PREVAILING THUNDERSTORM PERIODS A LITTLE
BETTER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE WESTERN AIRPORTS WHEN WE SEE
HOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY UNFOLD. OTHERWISE...OTHER
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE RE-FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OUT EAST ON THE PLAINS. MODELS WANT TO BRING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DOWN AT OR BELOW IFR CATEGORY AT ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY
AGAIN TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE PATTERN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE
WITH IT. MENTIONED MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING AT CHADRON...
SCOTTSBLUFF AND CHEYENNE WITH OTHER SITE OVERNIGHT VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MOIST
AIR MASS COMBINES WITH FUELS THAT ARE IN GREEN-UP. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MOST DAYS...WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DISTRICT. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MON-WED. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVE LIGHT THRU THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN
EARNEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CONTINUING SNOWMELT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREATE CONTINUED RIVER RISES ON THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE RIVER TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHICH COULD ADD TO FURTHER RAPID RISES.
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY FOR
SUNDAY AS A RESULT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE SNOWMELT EVEN MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE...AND NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
PLEASE SEE FFACYS FOR PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING CURRENT
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION TO THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS IN PART A RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE CLOSED
LOW FEATURE EJECTS SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BROUGHT A
COOLER POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ALLOWED THE STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP
FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY TO BECOME RATHER
VIGOROUS IN NATURE...AND HELPED TO SUPPORT THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
HAIL. IT IS THIS EARLY PART OF THE SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORM SEASON
WHEN THE CHANCES FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL ARE HIGHEST. THE
FURTHER WE GET INTO THE SUMMER SEASON...ESPECIALLY MID JULY AND
ONWARD...WE SEE OUR PEAK IN STORM COVERAGE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL DECREASES AS THE OVERALL COLUMN WARMS AND MOISTENS.
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE PASSED BY...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION AND WILL SEE SMALL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
TERMS OF VERIFYING THE COLUMN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ABOVE OUR
HEADS...THE 26/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE IS NOT OF MUCH USE...AS A
CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPED OVERHEAD SHORTLY AFTER BALLOON RELEASE.
THE PATH OF THE BALLOON THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE CELL MADE THE
MEASUREMENTS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERE.
THE SOUNDING FROM JACKSONVILLE AND MIAMI ARE LIKELY A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE LOOK AT THE COLUMN ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE 26/12Z
SOUNDING RELEASE SHOULD LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT.
AT THE SURFACE...DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACEMENT IS PROVIDING A LIGHT
E-ESE SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE
TO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WHOLE PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF...HOWEVER
FOR FACTORS DISCUSSED BELOW...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING STORM COVERAGE OR
GENERAL INTENSITY TO BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WARM
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS WILL RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND REACH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
INLAND AND 80S AT THE BEACHES. TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN AROUND NOON AND 1PM. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL FIGHT TO MOVE INLAND AGAINST THE
PREVAILING E-ESE SYNOPTIC FLOW. WINDS JUST ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO STOP IN INLAND PENETRATION...BUT ARE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW IT. THEREFORE LOOKING FOR THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
TO REACH AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR OR SO...BEFORE STALLING EARLY IN
THE EVENING. THE FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COUPLE OF THINGS
ARE DIFFERENT THOUGH TODAY FROM SUNDAY. FIRST...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
(600-400MB) ARE ON AVERAGE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE MUCH...BUT IT CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD TO
THE CAPE ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE COOLER THE AIR
IS ALOFT THE MORE THE PARCELS FROM BELOW WANT TO RISE. SO...THIS
WARMER AIR WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE/SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.
ALSO...THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMER
TEMPS) WILL ADD SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION TO THE MIX...ALSO MAKE
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS LESS FAVORABLE.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE ADVERTISING A 30-35% COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND
INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR....AND THEN ONLY A 20% COVERAGE WELL INLAND
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE SEA BREEZE. IT IS ALWAYS
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
COMPLETELY HOSTILE...HOWEVER...THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP "IN CHECK" TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET...AND SET UP ANOTHER WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY NIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...WITH
NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST PERHAPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. EVERYONE HAVE A FUN AND SAFE
MEMORIAL DAY!
&&
.MID TERM (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUMP UP A
WEAK U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY
WHILE ALSO HOLDING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS INDICATES POCKET OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
THE U/L LOW STALLS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GRADUALLY
FILLS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL INDUCE STRONG RIDGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS THURSDAY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA FRIDAY AND HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED HOLDING STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO
THIS SOLUTION ALSO. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE DUE TO THIS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PERSISTING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH ENHANCED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG EXIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVRF VIS AT EITHER KLAL OR
KPGD TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS AROUND DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AND THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE
POSITION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM REACHING
CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE SEA-BREEZE WILL STALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST...MAKING WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
HIGHLY VARIABLE EACH AFTERNOON. SPOT FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
DECISION MAKING SUPPORT FOR ANY FIRES ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 74 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
FMY 93 73 91 72 / 20 20 30 10
GIF 92 71 92 71 / 20 10 30 10
SRQ 89 72 87 72 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 93 68 90 67 / 30 20 30 20
SPG 91 76 89 75 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
353 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS WITH TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY. A COUPLE IMPULSES ARE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH KANSAS AND THESE
CAN BE SEEN WITH MODEST LOWERING IN PV 1.5 PRESSURE FIELD TO AROUND
350 MB. EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN OVERALL DECREASING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK GUST FRONT INDUCED
CONVECTION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING A BIT MORE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PV ANOMALIES FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY THETA-E
ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WELL. EXPECT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
TO PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHWEST AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH
LESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. PWATS TODAY STILL HOVER NEAR 1.5 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 10 KFT. THIS IN ADDITION TO WEAK FLOW
WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE OTHER AREAS GET LITTLE
TO NO ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY. ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY...SHOULD HAVE HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS IMPACTED WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD...CONTINUING TO
INFLUENCE WEATHER FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AND ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS IOWA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW...AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING NORTH OF LOW...STILL ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SCATTERED
NATURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS A WEAK BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND HAVE BROUGHT POPS FURTHER SOUTH..ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. GIVEN GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES OVER AN
INCH...WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
DECREASES LATE TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN LOW SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTH DIMINISHES.
AS SYSTEMS PUSH EAST...RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED FOR END OF WEEK. MODELS DO
ATTEMPT TO LIFT SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY...BEFORE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWING THROUGH RIDGE FOR WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. WAA IN THE WEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE EAST WHILE NEW AREA OF
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING INTO FAR WEST. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE KDSM AND KOTM BY 11-12Z. OTHERWISE
VCSH AND PATCHY BR WILL BE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH 12Z. AFT 14Z AGAIN
LOOKING FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR THUNDER TO DEVELOP INTO THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTH
INTO IOWA FROM MISSOURI. TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION...SO WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HAVE
GONE VC FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO REFINE TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR NEXT
PACKAGE. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AFT 08-09Z AS BR
BEGINS TO DEVELOP./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING...BUT EXPANDING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT
HIGHER POPS AND EXPANDED A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE EVENING. /REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN INTO TONIGHT. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH CUTOFF LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER NM/CO AND IA IN DEEP BUT WEAK SLY/SWLY FLOW. THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TOTAL QG FORCING NOTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE
IS WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION. EXAMINATION OF VARIOUS MODEL 300/305K
ISENT SURFACES NOTES LESS BAROCLINICITY THAN LAST NIGHT SO PRECIP
CHANCES MAY BE DRIVEN MORE BY INSOLATION THAN YESTERDAY.
AIRMASS OVER SW HALF OF IA IS UNCAPPED WITH 1000 PLUS J/KG MLCAPES.
DEEP CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND CENTERED OVER MO RIVER NEAR FAR SERN
NE/NERN KS CLUSTER AND EXPECT THIS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO IA
WITHIN ONLY 15KT MEAN WIND. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MODERATE SO
CORFIDI VECTORS MAY RESULT IN EVEN SLOWER CELL MOTION. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS WEAK SO MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER
THAN SEVERE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWS 1.5 OR JUST ABOVE.
EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO PERSIST ALL NIGHT...BUT LIKELY
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON PERIODIC RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK AND TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST WITH INCREASED MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHES NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD
OF A VERY SLOW MOVING 500MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING TIME. CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL EVENTUAL PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
IN THE MEAN TIME...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CUT ACROSS
THE STATE AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA THAT WILL BE DRY MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NEXT VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARDS A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS LOOKING MORE DRY THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHT POPS OR LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE EAST WHILE NEW AREA OF
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING INTO FAR WEST. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE KDSM AND KOTM BY 11-12Z. OTHERWISE
VCSH AND PATCHY BR WILL BE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH 12Z. AFT 14Z AGAIN
LOOKING FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR THUNDER TO DEVELOP INTO THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTH
INTO IOWA FROM MISSOURI. TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION...SO WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HAVE
GONE VC FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO REFINE TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR NEXT
PACKAGE. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AFT 08-09Z AS BR
BEGINS TO DEVELOP./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
341 AM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The winds have become calm over much of the area, so really having
to use dewpoints to find the warm front early this morning. As of
08Z, it appears to be running from just north of Madisonville,
Kentucky to just south of Mt Vernon Illinois. All 00Z guidance
pushes the warm front northeast of the area shortly after
daybreak, so it does not appear there will be an obvious surface
boundary to help focus convection today.
The last couple HRRR runs, the latest of which is from 05Z,
consistently develop a north to south oriented band of convection
just east of the Mississippi River late this morning. Not sure
exactly what is touching this off, but it may just be diurnal
heating. The ridge at 500mb and 700 mb will push east of the area
by 18Z today, so there could be a disturbance in the developing
southwest flow that is responsible. The main upper low will keep
Texas and Oklahoma wet, but should not be a factor for our area.
The 00Z Hi-Res WRF/ARW looks very similar to the HRRR, so will
have a band of chancy PoPs to mimic the HRRR in moving it east
through the Lakes by early afternoon. Will have at least slight
chances throughout the area in the afternoon.
Another tendency in the 00Z guidance is for convection to fire
over southern Missouri and then shift eastward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. This trend is also represented in the grids. Capped PoPs
at 40 percent in both enhanced areas.
After the diurnal convection dies down early this evening, much of
the tonight period should be dry. The NAM brings some convection
northeast mainly into west Kentucky near sunrise, so will
introduce a slight chance in the pre-dawn hours.
PoPs for Tuesday may be overdone. There will not be an obvious
surface boundary to work with, and 00Z NAM and GFS soundings
struggle to generate any instability. The upper low will continue
to plague areas from the southern Plains eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may actually gobble up the better Gulf
moisture before it can reach our area. Will have 30-40% PoPs
through the day, but the coverage may be more isolated.
The NAM and GFS bring a mid-level trough into the region, to the
north of the low. This could keep things percolating over our
region, especially in our northern and western counties Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance PoP Tuesday night
and 30-40% PoP on Wednesday.
Some patchy ground fog has developed over areas that received
significant rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. This is
noted in the METARs from KPAH to KMDH. Given the patchy and
shallow nature of the fog, do not plan to issue an advisory or
special weather statement at this time, but will mention in the
HWO and continue to monitor.
Temperatures jumped into the upper 80s over the southwest half of
the area yesterday behind the warm front, so would expect similar
conditions throughout the area today. In the absence of widespread
and persistent convection, more than currently forecast, would
expect similar readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely leaned
toward the warm side of guidance which was generally derived from
the GFS. The NAM really seems to be choking on the low-level
moisture over the area, so its MET guidance looks too cool.
With a general lack of instability over the area, and weak wind
profiles, organized severe weather does not seem likely. Of
course, as always, a stray storm could briefly pulse up to near
severe levels in the heat of the day. Precipitable water at or
above 1.5" is not at the top of the climatological charts, but it
is well above normal, so heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern, along with lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The extended period will begin with a highly amplified pattern aloft
over the conus, with a ridge across the central section. A large
closed low in the mid levels over the Gulf Coast States is forecast
to slowly weaken and eventually dissipate while the central conus
ridge strengthens. Over next weekend, height falls over the PAH
forecast area will start to occur as nrn stream shrtwv energy
impinges on the central conus ridge.
At the sfc, a quasi-stationary boundary between the highest
dewpoint/humidity air to the south and somewhat drier air to the
north will be draped nw to se across the PAH forecast area for the
latter half of the week, then become more diffuse and move ewd away
from our region during the weekend. This boundary will provide some
focus for diurnally-driven shower and tstm activity, but it will be
difficult to tell exactly where activity will occur due to a slack
upper pattern over the PAH forecast area and persistent moist srly
low level flow. Convective activity is expected to be slow-moving
and may be conducive to localized flooding. The initialization blend
showed a decent signal for scattered showers and tstms for our
entire region Thu and Fri, especially during the day.
At this time, the med range models are in reasonable agreement with
the overall pattern over the conus, and indicate that a drier air
mass will sink swd through the Midwest and into our region from the
ne next Sat, confining deep moist convection to the swrn half of the
region. By Sun, return flow ahead of cold front sinking into the nrn
tier of states will deepen the moisture across our area again...
offering up a limited chance of pcpn.
Expect a stable temp pattern in this regime, with highs mostly in
the middle 80s except upper 80s Sun, and lows in the middle to upper
60s, with moderate humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Scattered storms stayed well to the sw of the kevv area before they
dissipated during the evening. Skies then cleared across the
region...and winds became nearly calm. Where rain occurred in the
kpah area around sunset...fog has already begun to form. Expect at
least some periods of ifr vsbys at kpah due to rain moistened
ground. Fog will burn off just after sunrise.
After a mostly sunny morning...more scattered storms could
develop on Monday afternoon in a warm and humid southwest wind flow.
A weak disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere would be
the main trigger. Winds will increase from the southwest to around
10 knots. Any storms that develop would linger through the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL STALL OUT
JUST S/SW OF THE CWA WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE N. MOST
PRECIP FORCED FROM THE FRONT SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WILL FOG/DRIZZLE OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NRN UPPER
MI. THE 00Z/26 NAM HITS THIS THE HARDEST IN SHOWING QPF RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORELINES THROUGH MUCH OF TUE...AND THIS IS ALSO ALLUDED TO BY
THE GEM-NH AND THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BEFORE
TUESDAY...INCREASING SFC DEW PTS DUE TO CONTINUED RETURN FLOW TODAY
MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF PRIMARILY
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT IF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG DEVELOPS FOG AND
POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL
UPPER MI. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN...SO CLOUD COVER WILL
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
LIKELY WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. INLAND...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THU WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE CWA WITH NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA. SFC RIDGING THEN
TAKES HOLD AGAIN ON FRI...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED AND MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MON.
AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD
TSRA COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUD CIGS
ARE EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS MAKING A DENT IN THE RIDGE OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS
ADVECTED A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI AS NOTED ON RUC
ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EVEN AT MANY LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE LOCAL COOLING OCCURRED. GRADIENT SW FLOW IS
OBVIOUSLY KEEPING AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COOLER. FAIRPORT AND KISQ
HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS GET OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTN. IN FACT...FAIRPORT
HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY AROUND 50F. DEEP MIXING HAS BROUGHT MUCH
DRIER AIR DOWNWARD WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. RESULT HAS BEEN RH AS
LOW AS 15-20PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIEST. OUT TO THE W...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. ADVANCING CLOUD DECK THRU SE
MN/IA INTO FAR WRN WI MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
ADVANCING NE.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING WHEN PCPN
POTENTIAL WILL REACH UPPER MI AND THEN COVERAGE OF PCPN ON MEMORIAL
DAY. AREA OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AT LEAST THRU THE
EVENING HRS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PLAINS NE. BY
12Z MON...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 200PCT OF
NORMAL. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 25KT...SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...AND INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM 850MB) COULD CERTAINLY SPARK SOME CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL
BEGINNING OVER THE FAR W AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THERE`S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA LIFTS ENE INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A ZONE OF VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE EXTENDING S INTO UPPER MI FROM MAIN AREA OF FORCING
FARTHER N IN NRN ONTARIO. SO...AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA OF LOW POPS SPREADING INTO THE W OVERNIGHT (LOW CHC FAR W
LATE). WILL CARRY SCHC POPS AS FAR E AND N AS ROUGHLY A
KCMX/KMQT/KMNM LINE BEFORE 12Z.
ON MEMORIAL DAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT
SHIFTS E...AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
UPPER MI. IF ANYTHING THERE ARE SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL
BE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON MEMORIAL DAY...BUT NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING...BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPES GENERALLY AROUND
500 TO POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000J/KG. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...BUT WILL BE
LARGELY MASKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT TIED TO DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCT/CHC CATEGORY. KEWEENAW MAY END UP DRY AS LAKE MODERATION KEEPS
INSTABILITY IN CHECK THERE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NO GREATER THAN
25KT...AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LARGER SCALE FEATURES BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGE
APPEARS TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THEN
THERE ARE HINTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COOLER EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL KEEP MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
A DRY AIRMASS HOLD STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. AT
THIS POINT...WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG ANY OF THE DAYS
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL OFFSET THE DRY AIRMASS/WARM TEMPS/LOWER RH
VALUES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
INITIAL PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER AREA OF SMALL
CONCERN FOR POPS WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN. LINGERING HIGHER H85-H7 RH ON NORTH EDGE OF STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
COULD POP ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. NIL INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK...IF
ANY ENHANCEMENT FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES VERY LOW THOUGH.
H85-H7 WINDS ARE MORE NORTHERLY SO IF SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP THEY
WOULD QUICKLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AWAY FM UPR MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS
COOLEST IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS SKIES TURN OUT
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS DOWN TO 70 PCT OF
NORMAL AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR COLDEST SPOTS COULD
DIP TO 40 DEGREES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
THETA-E ADVECTION COULD HELP POP UP MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
MINNESTOTA AND NORTHWEST WI ALONG WITH AREAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WNW FLOW AT H85-H7 WOULD STEER ANY
SHOWERS TOWARD FAR WEST CWA...VCTY OF KIWD AND ALSO WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE. ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND CHANCES WILL
BE KEPT VERY LOW. COOLING WILL STILL BE MORE NOTABLE NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS INLAND TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS MORE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS MAY FALL BRIEFLY OVER UPPER
LAKES...ALLOWING THE SFC TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY TO CROSS
CWA ON THURSDAY. IDEA OF A TROUGH PASSAGE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET BUT NOT AS MUCH THE GEM-NH. ANY DYNAMICS TIED TO THE SFC TROUGH
ARE FORECAST WELL TO NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER ONTARIO. INCREASE OF
H85-H7 RH PRECEEDS THE SFC BOUNDARY...PRETTY MUCH EXITING CWA BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ALONG THE TROUGH EITHER. WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST SURE THING FOR A DRY DAY. DIFFERENCES
THEN APPEAR IN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY IN HANDLING OF HOW
QUICK THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP AND THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN A NUTSHELL...ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS DRAWS SOME ATTENTION AS MOST
TIMES THIS IS USUALLY FLIPPED WITH THE GFS TYPICALLY QUICKER. MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR NOW GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLIES NEARBY AND
FCST MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOOSTED
TEMPS UPWARD WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MON.
AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD
TSRA COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUD CIGS
ARE EXPECTED BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1112 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Thunderstorms over southern Illinois have nearly diminished late this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Storms that were over northwest
Missouri earlier this evening have moved northeast into Iowa and have
also decreased in intensity and areal coverage. Expect overall coverage
of storms to be minimal overnight. However, RAP and HRRR are showing
some indications of thunderstorms developing toward daybreak over
southern Missouri, so added slight chances over the southern
counties. Made only minor changes to temperatures.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Rain-cooled bubble of air from morning convection has left a
well-defined boundary which was near a Mexico-DeSoto at 1930z.
Despite the boundary, convection so far as been limited to one or
two cells over SE MO, as well as a couple of storms over central/n
central MO. Think that any storms that form on the boundary will
have trouble getting too far into the more stable airmass northeast
of this feature, so evening convection will likely primarily be limited
to areas west of the Mississippi River. While much of the evening
convection will be diurnally-driven, some shortwave energy may
brush northwest sections of the CWA during the late evening and
overnight hours, and have maintained low pops over this area
during this time period for this threat.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Through mid-week not seeing any major changes in sensible weather
trends across the FA. Region will remain in moist and modestly
unstable airmass, while weak disturbances ejecting out ahead of slow
moving upper low will occasionally impinge on this airmass.
It still appears that large scale PoP trends will continue
to exhibit a fairly decent diurnal swing, maxing out during the
afternoon with max heating and instability with a relative
(non-zero) minima during the late evening and overnight hours.
However, exact PoP trends will ultimately be dictated by the arrival
of the shortwave impulses, so fine-tuning of precip threat
will continue to be a short-term forecast exercise. It would appear
that the diurnal PoP swing will be most pronounced over our
southeast counties, where affects of upper level ridging will be
most pronounced.
Models have maintained very good consistency with movement of cutoff
low currently over the SW U.S, with the system moving east-southeast
as it encounters large scale ridging and into the ARKLATEX region by
Wednesday. While this is quite removed from our FA PoPs will remain
in the forecast as NWP solutions do hint at shortwaves rotating
around the system brushing sw sections of our area, with the
addition of weak shortwave energy also overtopping ridge and
dropping into the region. In addition to these features, forecast
sounding still suggest no real change in the AMS over the region,
so with little if any CIN some convective initiation should not
be too difficult to attain.
Heading into the latter part of the week the remnants of the upper
low drifts into the northern Gulf, leaving unseasonably strong
longwave ridge to dominate our weather. There does seem to be some
shear axis/weakness in the 5H field on Thursday that could aid in
storm development, but by Sat it would appear that any precip
threat will strictly be diurnally driven and very spotty. For now I`ve
continued going forecast trends and pushed PoPs towards climo by
Saturday. I`m wondering if Friday`s PoPs may still be too high,
but will watch upcoming model runs to get a better feel for this.
A greater precip threat should return to at least northern
sections of the area by next Sunday as a series of shortwaves
begin to flatten ridge.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal as
upper ridge keeps warm air anchored over the central CONUS, with
highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
Not much change from the prev forecast. Light winds will become
swly Mon morning. Can not rule out TSRA impacting UIN during the
morning hours. Otherwise, all terminals will have a chance of
being impacted by isod to sct TSRA during the afternoon into early
evening.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID UPDATE FOR MINOR
CHANGES TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF POPS OVERNIGHT. 00Z OAX SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED SINCE 12Z...WHICH WAS LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 1800
J/KG WITH LITTLE MLCIN. THIS WAS SUFFICIENT FOR ISO/SCT TSRA
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FA THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WITH THE THETA-E DIFF OF 22/DCAPE OF 900 J/KG...AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HIGH PWAT. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...AND GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
WE WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST WITH PWATS DECREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION IS AND DOWNSTREAM...BUT DECREASE TO SCHC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NEAR TERM WX HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST BUT SHORT-RANGE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG AXIS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTH. THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE EVENING SET UP
THE HRRR AND RAP DEPICT. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EVENING
FORECAST JUST IN CASE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TSTMS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COULD CREATE FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PW`S GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.50" THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH PCPN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK...THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SFC BOUNDARY TO
DROP INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL LIKELY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AT KOMA BUT OTHERWISE A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BUT A ROUGE SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WITH RAIN FALLING...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA/KLNK...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME REDUCED VISBY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW. OTHERWISE MODELS CONT TO WANT TO DRY
THINGS OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CIGS IN OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE ISO/SCT TSRA
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT OFK AFTER 21Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR CARRINGTON AND
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST AND THE AREA IS NOW IN THE 5 PERCENT RISK IN THE NEW SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MUCAPE BETWEEN 1-2K STILL DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INCLUDING WARD AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. LATEST RADAR DOES INDEED STILL DEPICT SEVERAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA...AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS...TRENDING POPS
DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 09Z AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
DECREASING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY
BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
UPDATED DISCUSSION...LOW CIGS FORECAST BY THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO THROW IN PATCHY FOG FOR
THESE AREAS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INCREASING
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AS THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATED...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE EVENING.
OPTED TO GO HIGHER SKY COVER WEST...SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER FOG FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE NAM/RAP/HRRR ALL INDICATING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
INCREASING UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ALMOST OUT OF MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MOST IF NOT ALL RADAR ACTIVITY NOW TO MY SOUTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING 1-2K MUCAPE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH STILL POP UP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SEVERE REST OF TONIGHT IS SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP.
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH...AND BACK ACROSS
THE WEST. IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING A CLOSER LOOK FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE IN 1-3 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND
FORKS TO JAMESTOWN INTO ASHLEY. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PUT AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER NW ND COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERALL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
MAIN JET REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MULTIPLE...BUT WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRIGGER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR WEST AND
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS VERSUS SOUTH AND EAST. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND DEEPEN AT TIMES ALONG THE
WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS
BRIEF RIDGE CREATES A LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C TO +22C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN
THE 80S GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING...LITTLE COOLER
IF THIS IS NOT ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATING MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST...IMPACTING KJMS-KBIS-KDIK. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR KDIK.
ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY 14-16Z MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KISN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HANDLE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS
FOR NOW.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
104 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING. IT`S NOT DEJA
VU... BUT FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE
REGIONS OF CONVECTION... ONE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND ONE
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO CHURN OVER NRN NM/SRN CO. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE HIRES NMM AND ARW
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO EVOLVE THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALL POINT TO AN INCREASING LLJ BETWEEN 07-09Z...
COUPLED WITH A DECENT 300MB JET. CURRENT IR SAT REVEALS SOME
POSSIBLE CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE TXPH...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPED
ACROSS WRN N TX AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS
RESOLVED BY THE RECENT HRRR (03Z)... WHICH ALSO LIFTS THE CURRENT
CONVECTION OVER THE TXPH NORTHWARD. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS... STILL FEEL IT IS OVER CONVECTING... ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 12Z ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL OK. HOWEVER... ITS PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN N TX INTO SWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR KPNC THROUGH 08Z.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP AFTER 08Z NEAR KSPS AND
MOVE/SPREAD NORTHEAST. PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN A
LOCATION GETS AFFECTED BY SHRA/TSRA REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TS EXCEPT NEAR KGAG AND KWWR
22-01Z.
PLAN TO FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09-18Z. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. BR IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME VFR
AT MOST SITES AFTER 18Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST NEXT 12 HRS IS NOT VERY HIGH. DID
LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP IN NORTH
TEXAS.
LATER TONIGHT EC/RAP13 HAVE NOSE OF MODERATE LLJ NEAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS (70-80 KT JET) SHOULD RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF FA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO NEXT 24 HOURS HOURS WITH MAJORITY OF
MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND
EVOLUTION/IMPACTS OF NUMEROUS MCVS PRODUCED FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION. FIRST AND MOST IMPACTING FOR OUR CWA IS MCV MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AIDING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF OKC. ANOTHER
IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE MINIMAL SENSIBLE EFFECTS THIS EVENING.
MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUENCE FROM SPEED MAX
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FAR WEST TEXAS AND SE NEW MEXICO AND NOSE OF
LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE FROM MENTIONED NORTH TEXAS MCV AND ONGOING/EXPECTED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SRN TEXAS. REGARDLESS...WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL JET AND OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS IN SEVERAL DAYS...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOST
GUIDANCE BUT WILL KEEP POPS FROM DEVIATING TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE. CONVECTION INITIATING OVER WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF BODY OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BUT FURTHER
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR CAPROCK WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
GREATEST CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY STILL APPEAR TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA LATE TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT BECAUSE MUCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE OVER AREAS
EAST OF WHERE HEAVY RAIN TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED...WE WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE-44 AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS JUST
EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND WEAK CAPPING/MOISTURE REMAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 64 80 64 / 40 60 60 30
HOBART OK 77 63 83 64 / 40 60 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 66 83 65 / 50 60 60 30
GAGE OK 78 60 83 61 / 40 50 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 63 82 63 / 50 50 50 20
DURANT OK 81 66 79 67 / 40 60 70 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. STRONGEST CONVECTION RIGHT NOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
AND LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. KEPT VCSH REMARKS AT LRD FOR NOW THOUGH. ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO THE VFR BY THE MID/LATE MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AROUND
00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE DOWN TO 1.2
INCHES. BUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 12Z MONDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THR BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN
A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY TO NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP NEAR A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE REGION OF
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MOIST INFLOW INTO THIS REGION
WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. 23Z HRRR MODEL
SEEM TO REPRESENT CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...AND SHOWS BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY UNTIL AROUND 06Z
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTH TEXAS. RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT AFTER 06Z FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND. EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS REGION TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE. MAY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT LRD THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES
BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST...INCREASING
STABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN STORMS...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REACH ALI-CRP-VCT. IN ANY OF THE STORMS NEAR
LRD...GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...CLIPPING
NORTHERN AREAS FROM ALI-VCT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ACTIVITY FOR THE TAF
SITES FOR NOW.
OUTSIDE OF THIS EVENT...MVFR/VFR CIG MIX EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING FROM EAST TO WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME
FROM 14Z-17Z...WITH SE WIND 15-20KT DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 89 74 89 74 / 10 20 10 30 10
VICTORIA 71 87 72 89 72 / 20 30 20 40 10
LAREDO 76 98 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
ALICE 73 91 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 75 84 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 72 92 71 95 72 / 30 20 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 75 91 74 92 74 / 10 20 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
WAKE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OCCURRING EARLIER HAVE SETTLED DOWN FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE DFW METRO AND A
DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY. WITH BOUNDARIES AROUND AND AN MCV
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...ABOUT ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN AND EVEN HIGH
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE STRUGGLING AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO.
WILL CARRY VCSH OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT MORE
AFTER SUNRISE AT DFW ONCE STRONG LATE MAY SUN FIRST RISES. HOWEVER...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TO 10 KTS OR
SLIGHTLY MORE WILL HELP MIX OUT TO MULTIPLE LAYER VFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW AFTERNOON...BOUNDARIES
AND HEATING WILL LIKELY INITIATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING HEAVIER RAINFALL IN AND NEAR THE AIRPORTS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS MEMORIAL DAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH SUNSET UPON US AND WITH THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NOW MUCH
LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WE
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING
AND OCCASIONAL NON-SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
ACTIVITY HEADING TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM HILLSBORO TO
TEMPLE.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECTED SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CONCHO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BUT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS A WEAK WAVE
PROPAGATES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY START TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION REACHING EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TEXAS MAY BE IN A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND REACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL LINGER SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION AND LINGERING MOISTURE.
OVERALL...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS.
THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD HELP EASE THE GRIP OF THE DROUGHT...
ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOT DAYS OF LATE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 83 69 82 69 / 30 20 50 60 50
WACO, TX 68 84 69 79 69 / 60 20 40 60 50
PARIS, TX 65 82 65 77 65 / 20 20 40 60 60
DENTON, TX 67 82 69 81 66 / 30 20 50 60 50
MCKINNEY, TX 66 82 68 78 66 / 20 20 50 60 60
DALLAS, TX 71 85 69 80 68 / 30 20 40 60 60
TERRELL, TX 68 83 67 77 66 / 30 20 40 60 60
CORSICANA, TX 69 84 68 78 68 / 30 20 30 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 69 83 69 81 68 / 60 30 40 60 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 81 65 80 65 / 50 40 60 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AS WELL...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG A COOL FRONT. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER TOP THE RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL VEER AND ALLOW DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT. BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE NIGHT WARMER AND MORE MUGGY THAN
THE PAST FEW.
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OVER NE
MINNESOTA...A MOISTURE-LADEN AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES. UPPER FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 65KT JET STREAK AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN 80/65 PARCEL WILL GENERATE 1300
J/KG OF ML CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE FALLS TO ABOUT 900 J/KG USING A
77/62 PARCEL. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY SKINNY...THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO THE HIGH PWATS AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION. SO ANTICIPATE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A PERSISENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUCKLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS UPPER RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTAINING HIGHER PWATS
WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PROGGED TO STRUGGLE TO WORK OVER
THE REBUILDING RIDGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM OR
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN...SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SINCE IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD AGAIN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER MORE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A DRIER FORECAST
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY WORK OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALTER THIS WEEK BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. AS MENTIONED THESE TRENDS
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD WILL
ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL TIME THE
FRONT WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
DRY STABLE AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY EDGING OUT OF THE
AREA...AS MOISTURE AXIS TO THE W WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD.
COULD SEE SOME SHRA LATE TNGT AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE.
BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCR IN SHRA AND SOME TSRA TOMORROW AS DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAINING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS THEY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR AND BOTH OUR LOCAL AND THE WFO BTV WRF SHOW
ONCE THESE MORNING SHOWERS END...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
FAR NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
BY THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL BE BREAKING UP AND MIXING OUT...AND
SKIES LOOK TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AROUND 14 DEGREES C...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 50S...IT SHOULDN/T FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE OUTDOORS AS IT COULD
BE FOR LATE MAY DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATER OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM AS AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK MILD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...OR MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
LATE IN THE DAY (OR EVEN EVENING). PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. THE WIND FLOW LOOKS NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BACKBUILDING CELLS...BUT TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SO FAR HAS
NOT PLACED ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO RAMP WITH
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED (MORE IF SUNSHINE IS GREATER THAN WE ARE
THINKING...WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE LIMITED). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RESPECTABLE...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6.0-6.5 KM/C RANGE.
ALSO THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE FORECASTED SOUNDING...ALBEIT WEAK. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DID NOT HAVE THIS CAPPING FEATURE
OBVIOUS.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAXING AROUND
30KTS...AGAIN RESPECTABLE BUT NOT "OFF THE CHARTS."
SO...WHILE WE ARE NOT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR EARLY THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WE AND SPC ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF IT AT THIS TIME TO
USE ENHANCED WORDING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT (HWO).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY AND COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND
80-85 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER
NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHATEVER FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIMP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THE PROBLEM IS BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST). THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE WIND TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD
HOLD LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST (COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL).
WHATEVER FALLS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE "SPITS" TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT
THAT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH SOMEWHERE
EITHER AROUND EASTERN NY OR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN
FRIDAY BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY.
ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS
IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HANDLING OF
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE COOLEST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTIES...NOT CHANGING CURRENT
FORECAST MUCH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUGGESTING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN BUT DRY...AS ANY POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND IN ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
MENTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...70S EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO OCCURS...IF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...COOLER AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW IS FURTHER EAST...THEN
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.
THERE ARE AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KALB...KGFL...
KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE RAIN UPSTREAM HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT AND HAS NOT LOWERED CONDITIONS BELOW VFR...SO INDICATING VCSH
SINCE THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EVEN IF SOME RAIN AFFECTS
THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AFTER 15Z AS
CEILINGS AROUND 8000-10000 FEET SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AFTER THAT.
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH LATER IN THE MORNING. IT COULD BE GUSTY...TO NEAR 20
KT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT
EVERYWHERE AND BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY...BUT WILL MOVE ON
BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A BREEZE WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
10-15...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 MPH IN WIND PRONE PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION). RH
VALUES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT. (INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIGHT ACTUALLY LIMIT DEW FORMATION). AFTER A QUITE EVENING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THAT THREAT WILL
ESCALATE TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT AS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. AVERAGE
RAINFALL AVERAGES LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT AS
USUAL WITH CONVECTION...LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VERY LITTLE TO PERHAPS OVER AN INCH IN A FEW SELECT SPOTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE. RH VALUES WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
50 PERCENT MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
WATERSHEDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. AT THIS POINT...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING (PREVENT BACKBUILDING).
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE BUT NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
915 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS MORNING...THEN DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A
RAPID END TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH FROM EAST TO WEST...ALONG WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL THEN
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
BE GONE BY LATE MORNING. HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THIS VERY WELL
AND INDICATES OTHER SHOWERS DROPPING SE FROM NORTHERN NY WILL
DIMINISH AS THEY REACH OUR AREA.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE
FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SW NH AND W MA DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT EXPECT TO SEE BREAKS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING W FLOW GETS UNDERWAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY WITH 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
AREA EXCEPT 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
IN BRINGING A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE MAINE COAST AND GULF
OF MAINE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT THE W-SW WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAPE ANN
COAST AND OUTER TIP OF CAPE COD BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. SOME WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO S CENTRAL NH/NE MA AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAPID DROP IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY BEHIND A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY
* A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS ON WED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* NEXT FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT/FRI
* UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR US NEXT WEEKEND
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPS...SINCE
FRONT BEING A FEW HOURS SLOWER/FASTER THAN PROJECTED WILL MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT HIGHS SHOULD EXCEED 80
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO RHODE ISLAND...WHILE THE
EASTERN MA COAST WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S WITH A GUSTY
NORTHEAST WIND! TEMPS WILL THEN CRASH IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY
EVENING.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE.
HOWEVER...WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS GIVEN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TUE
NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...BUT AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO
BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO PERHAPS
NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THAT
IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THIS TIME RANGE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST. THIS MAY BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH SOME
SHOWERS ON SAT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME BY SUNDAY...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN STILL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LAST OF SHOWERS EXITS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS BY 15Z BUT CONDITIONS
REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AOA 070. VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE GRADUALLY ERODE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO INCREASING W/SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30KT.
VFR TONIGHT...BUT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS NE
MA/S NH IN ASSOCIATION WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/SW FLOW.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START TUESDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LATER TUE INTO WED. THIS A RESULT
OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BAYS AND
HARBORS. SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...W WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
MAY REACH 20 KT. BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TO CAPE ANN AND OUTER CAPE COD.
WIND SHIFTS TO N-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FOR LATE MAY MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS NOT SHOWING IT...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALL WATERS.
ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD
PERIOD AND THEIR ALREADY IN AFFECT FOR TODAY WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT HANDLE THAT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES...
.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE A LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY ONSHORE LOW LVL WIND FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. THE DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR BY MID AFTERNOON GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION AND THEN PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM
1.3 TO 1.5 ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND COOL MID LVL TEMPS TO 12 C AT XMR
AND -11 AT TBW. SHORT RANGE FCST MODELS SHOW THE MID LVL COLD POOL
TO MOVE OUT OVER THE ATLC IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 1 DEG OF MID
LVL WARMING. ONE ATLC COASTAL CONVERGENCE BAND INTO SRN BREVARD
COUNTY WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR STORM
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NUDGE POPS TO ~30 PCT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
LAKE COUNTY WHERE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A BIT MORE COVERAGE BEFORE
ACTIVITY PUSHES WESTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
COASTAL AREAS TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AN ONSHORE WIND...AND SMALL SWELL ALONG WITH FAVORABLE TIDAL EFFECTS
WITH THE NEW MOON WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VOLUSIA COUNTY LIFEGUARDS REPORTED OVER 85 RESCUES YESTERDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
INITIAL CUMULUS BASES BELOW 3 KFT SHOULD ELEVATE BY 16Z WITH MAINLY
VFR WEATHER FOR TERMINALS FROM 16Z-18Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS 17Z-19Z SHOULD PUSH TWD KLEE VCNTY BY
19Z-21Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KLEE...PROBS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
KMCO/KSFB.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE. CHOPPY SEAS THRU
MIDDAY WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC...INCREASING TO 9-10SEC TONIGHT.
ISOLD SHRA WILL MOVE CLOSE TO SEBASTIAN INLET INTO MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POISED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLIMO BIAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 261200Z KIND TAF/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BRING WINDS TO SSW EARLIER THAN FORECAST
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST OF VFR WITH VICINITY THUNDER LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL DECK AT
7-8KFT HAD DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS DECK WILL MIX OUT WITH CU GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET.
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS WELL BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A
VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING FROM 20Z THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 02Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
NEAR 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POISED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLIMO BIAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. MID LEVEL DECK AT
7-8KFT HAD DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS DECK WILL MIX OUT WITH CU GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET.
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS WELL BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A
VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING FROM 20Z THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 02Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
NEAR 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1048 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHTER ACTIVITY SPAWNING BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...THIS IS BRINGING AN END TO ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. A FEW TEMPS ARE A BIT OFF THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPLOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBS
AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER A
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE MENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LEAD TO THE DEW
POINTS STAYING UP IN THE MORE OPEN VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS
BEEN THE CULPRIT TO THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND SO HAVE PUT
THE FOG IN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE GRIDS BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH THE
WEAKENED SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN
MANY OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A REMNANT AND VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WILL
SERVE AS A WEAK GRADIENT AREA TO HELP IN ANY DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
WEAK...THE INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
INSTABILITY. THE NAM TENDS TO SHOW A MOIST BIAS AND MODELS SOUNDINGS
USUALLY HAVE A LOT OF SURFACE CAPE AND SO CHECKED WITH THE GFS
SOUNDINGS. THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DEALING
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT IN THE NORTH.
FOR THE TONIGHT TIME FRAME...GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING...ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DWINDLING IN THE 00Z TO 06Z RANGE
BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A
CLOSED LOW THAT HAS UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FINALLY HAS DRIFTED EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS BUT STILL...THESE ARE
PRETTY WEAK FEATURES AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING TIMES. THEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE STAYED MAINLY WITH CHANCE POPS. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH UPPER
TROUGHS OFF BOTH COASTS...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS MIDLANDS AND IS
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM QUAD CITIES
TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN CURVE INTO A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE EAST
AND WILL BE NEAR ARKLATEX. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER FRONT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL START MOVING BACK TO
EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN LODGED IN THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HAVE A BIT OF A CONCERN THAT AN MCS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL
ARRIVE. THE LAST MCS CREATED A LOT OF DAMAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND...HOWEVER TWEAKED THEM TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW VALLEY REGIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL SEE IT BURN OFF BY
12Z. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE INCHING CLOSER TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND SO HAVE AT LEAST PUT SOME VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SME
AND LOZ. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
AND SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
SOME VALLEY REGIONS MAY SEE IFR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The patchy ground fog has behaved itself and will be improving
quickly now that the sun is up. Will remove it from the HWO by 8
AM.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The winds have become calm over much of the area, so really having
to use dewpoints to find the warm front early this morning. As of
08Z, it appears to be running from just north of Madisonville,
Kentucky to just south of Mt Vernon Illinois. All 00Z guidance
pushes the warm front northeast of the area shortly after
daybreak, so it does not appear there will be an obvious surface
boundary to help focus convection today.
The last couple HRRR runs, the latest of which is from 05Z,
consistently develop a north to south oriented band of convection
just east of the Mississippi River late this morning. Not sure
exactly what is touching this off, but it may just be diurnal
heating. The ridge at 500mb and 700 mb will push east of the area
by 18Z today, so there could be a disturbance in the developing
southwest flow that is responsible. The main upper low will keep
Texas and Oklahoma wet, but should not be a factor for our area.
The 00Z Hi-Res WRF/ARW looks very similar to the HRRR, so will
have a band of chancy PoPs to mimic the HRRR in moving it east
through the Lakes by early afternoon. Will have at least slight
chances throughout the area in the afternoon.
Another tendency in the 00Z guidance is for convection to fire
over southern Missouri and then shift eastward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. This trend is also represented in the grids. Capped PoPs
at 40 percent in both enhanced areas.
After the diurnal convection dies down early this evening, much of
the tonight period should be dry. The NAM brings some convection
northeast mainly into west Kentucky near sunrise, so will
introduce a slight chance in the pre-dawn hours.
PoPs for Tuesday may be overdone. There will not be an obvious
surface boundary to work with, and 00Z NAM and GFS soundings
struggle to generate any instability. The upper low will continue
to plague areas from the southern Plains eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may actually gobble up the better Gulf
moisture before it can reach our area. Will have 30-40% PoPs
through the day, but the coverage may be more isolated.
The NAM and GFS bring a mid-level trough into the region, to the
north of the low. This could keep things percolating over our
region, especially in our northern and western counties Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance PoP Tuesday night
and 30-40% PoP on Wednesday.
Some patchy ground fog has developed over areas that received
significant rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. This is
noted in the METARs from KPAH to KMDH. Given the patchy and
shallow nature of the fog, do not plan to issue an advisory or
special weather statement at this time, but will mention in the
HWO and continue to monitor.
Temperatures jumped into the upper 80s over the southwest half of
the area yesterday behind the warm front, so would expect similar
conditions throughout the area today. In the absence of widespread
and persistent convection, more than currently forecast, would
expect similar readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely leaned
toward the warm side of guidance which was generally derived from
the GFS. The NAM really seems to be choking on the low-level
moisture over the area, so its MET guidance looks too cool.
With a general lack of instability over the area, and weak wind
profiles, organized severe weather does not seem likely. Of
course, as always, a stray storm could briefly pulse up to near
severe levels in the heat of the day. Precipitable water at or
above 1.5" is not at the top of the climatological charts, but it
is well above normal, so heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern, along with lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The extended period will begin with a highly amplified pattern aloft
over the conus, with a ridge across the central section. A large
closed low in the mid levels over the Gulf Coast States is forecast
to slowly weaken and eventually dissipate while the central conus
ridge strengthens. Over next weekend, height falls over the PAH
forecast area will start to occur as nrn stream shrtwv energy
impinges on the central conus ridge.
At the sfc, a quasi-stationary boundary between the highest
dewpoint/humidity air to the south and somewhat drier air to the
north will be draped nw to se across the PAH forecast area for the
latter half of the week, then become more diffuse and move ewd away
from our region during the weekend. This boundary will provide some
focus for diurnally-driven shower and tstm activity, but it will be
difficult to tell exactly where activity will occur due to a slack
upper pattern over the PAH forecast area and persistent moist srly
low level flow. Convective activity is expected to be slow-moving
and may be conducive to localized flooding. The initialization blend
showed a decent signal for scattered showers and tstms for our
entire region Thu and Fri, especially during the day.
At this time, the med range models are in reasonable agreement with
the overall pattern over the conus, and indicate that a drier air
mass will sink swd through the Midwest and into our region from the
ne next Sat, confining deep moist convection to the swrn half of the
region. By Sun, return flow ahead of cold front sinking into the nrn
tier of states will deepen the moisture across our area again...
offering up a limited chance of pcpn.
Expect a stable temp pattern in this regime, with highs mostly in
the middle 80s except upper 80s Sun, and lows in the middle to upper
60s, with moderate humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
5-6SM in fog will be possible for the first hour of the TAF at
KPAH and KCGI, but otherwise this forecast boils down to a
convection forecast. There are already a few showers developing
over the Missouri BootHeel and west Tennessee. Some of these
showers may flirt with KPAH this morning, so through in a VCSH
with a mid-level ceiling there.
The latest model guidance indicates that convective initiation
may be closer to midday than previously thought. Will use VCTS to
express the threat generally for the early afternoon at KPAH and
KCGI. Coverage may be less in the northeast, but decided to
mention the VCTS at those sites as well in the late afternoon
through around sunset.
Cannot rule out some at least MVFR fog development late tonight
where significant precipitation occurs this afternoon or evening.
Left it out for now.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1110 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROGRESS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z NAM AND
13Z HRRR DO SEEM TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE WELL...AND DO NOT SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING
UNTIL BETWEEN 2PM AND 5 PM. THIS WILL BE AS A THETA-E RIDGE SURGES
INTO THE AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO DROP INTO THE AREA BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
ONTARIO...AND AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO COOL SLIGHTLY. DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND START TIMING A
LITTLE EARLIER...BUT THOUGHT IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY
OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN AS THEY DRAW CLOSER. THEY ARE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST
(HIGHER POPS/TIMING) ARE WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 654 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL HOLD FIRM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BELOW 10K FT WITHIN MODEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
THICKENING HIGH CLOUD DECK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER BASED DIURNAL BKN VFR CU EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOW
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING AS THIS MOISTURE WORKS IN...BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO PROVIDE A DEFINITIVE MENTION.
ADDED A PROB30 FOR THE TAFS AFTER 03Z-06Z WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH BETTER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO REFINE SOME TAFS TO A TEMPO
GROUP AND WILL BE ABLE TO LEAVE OUT OTHERS. WHERE IT DOES RAIN
TONIGHT...MAY DEVELOP MVFR FOG. UPSTREAM OBS ARE NOT THAT PRONOUNCED
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LEAVE THAT OUT GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE
EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 21Z TO 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
QUIET START TO MEMORIAL DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z. THEN MOISTURE SURGE AT BOTH AROUND 850 MBS AND FROM
700/500 MBS AND ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
SUNSET.
WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE
IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A 50-60 KT JET STREAK...WILL BRING OUR
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS VERY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE JET GETS US INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT DOES HAVE JUST A BIT OF 700-500 MB
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MIXED LAYER CAPES TAKE ALL DAY TO
GET TO ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNSET AND MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED ML
LAYER OVERNIGHT. NO SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH SHEAR WITH WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN AT ABOUT 20-25 KTS AT 850 MBS AND 25-30 KTS AT 500 MBS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER
ON A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
STORM MOTION ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 20 MPH...WILL GET ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP.
WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT OUR 850 TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY. WILL NOT
GO TOO MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS PAST 18Z.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
QUITE THE LITTLE QUANDARY SETTING UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DESPITE LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE WAVELENGTH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS ALL SEEMS
POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF TWO REASONS: 1. THE COLD AND STABLE GREAT LAKES
ARE A GREAT ENVIRONMENT THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR ANTICYCLOGENESIS.
SO...ONCE A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STABLE AGGREGATE A POSITIVE
FEEDBACK LOOP DEVELOPS ALLOWING LAKE SCALE MESOHIGHS TO CLEAR THE
COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 2. THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A COMPONENT OF LINKED COLD
CONVEYOR/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SPUR THE FRONT SOUTHWARD.
THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE A GOOD MARKER FOR THE PSEUDO
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. POSITIONING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OR
THE STRAITS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...BECOMING ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THETA E PROGS SUPPORT A TON OF MOISTURE
ALIGNING/POOLING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1.70 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED AS EARLY AS 10/11 AM LDT. BEEN TRYING TO FIND A WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE
PROBLEM IS ONE IS NOT PRESENTING ITSELF MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TIME
A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY DUE TO WAVE SUBSIDENCE. SO...IT APPEARS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION OF PULSE TYPE CONVECTION.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS INDICATES LITTLE TO NO STORM
ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE ONLY
CONCERN. GIVEN MOS AND RAW OUTPUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FELT IT
PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS IT IS EXPECTED
THAT NUMEROUS COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A GREATER PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AGGREGATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIPS TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. ATTM...GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE ADEQUATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUPPORTING A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS THE NEAR
SURFACE THETA E MAXIMUM BECOMING ADVECTED INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY DRAPED TO SOUTH
OF LAKE ERIE SUGGESTS SOME LOW END SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LENAWEE COUNTY. OTHERWISE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
TAKE THE HUMIDITY OUT OF THE AIR AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING A
COMFORTABLE MID 70S.
AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HOLD OVER THE AGGREGATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING
THE NWP SOLUTIONS ROLL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SATURDAY COULD BE WARM TO HOT DAY AS SOME LARGE
SCALE SIGNALS ARE POINTING TO TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDING OVER
DIRECTLY OVER MICHIGAN. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO ALOT OF SUBSIDENCE
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MARINE...
BACKGROUND FORCING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO QUIET WIND
AND WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED. LAKE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A HUMID AIRMASS POOLS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH DRIER AIR.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL STALL OUT
JUST S/SW OF THE CWA WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE N. MOST
PRECIP FORCED FROM THE FRONT SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WILL FOG/DRIZZLE OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NRN UPPER
MI. THE 00Z/26 NAM HITS THIS THE HARDEST IN SHOWING QPF RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORELINES THROUGH MUCH OF TUE...AND THIS IS ALSO ALLUDED TO BY
THE GEM-NH AND THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BEFORE
TUESDAY...INCREASING SFC DEW PTS DUE TO CONTINUED RETURN FLOW TODAY
MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF PRIMARILY
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT IF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG DEVELOPS FOG AND
POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL
UPPER MI. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN...SO CLOUD COVER WILL
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
LIKELY WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. INLAND...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THU WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE CWA WITH NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA. SFC RIDGING THEN
TAKES HOLD AGAIN ON FRI...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED AND MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL ADVECT
MORE MSTR INTO THE AREA TDAY...RESULTING IN SOME ISOLD -SHRA THIS
MRNG. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TS WL COME THIS AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AT MAINLY SAW AND IWD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF THESE SHRA IS STILL TOO LO TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A FCST OF VCSH AT
THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH THEE WL BE PLENTY OF MID CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MSTR INFLUX...THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS. A WSHFT TO THE NNE BEHIND A COLD FROPA LATE TDAY/
TNGT MAY BRING SOME LO CLDS TO MAINLY SAW...WHERE THIS WIND WL
RESULT IN A SHARPER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF IFR WX
AT THIS SITE LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY MVFR AT IWD/CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
920 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHIFTED FOCUS FOR MORNING FOG OVER AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AS PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS FOR NOW...WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH 17 UTC. AS A RESULT...DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14 UTC FOR
STUTSMAN...LAMOURE...DICKEY...LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES BASED
UPON WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KTS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL PER -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND
HEAVY RAIN VIA SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND CAPPING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES...CAPPING
PLACES UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD IT
FORM...MAY BE SEVERE. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 14-15 UTC.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPO AND PREVAILING THUNDER GROUPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO KISN/KMOT/KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS WITH THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE NEAR KISN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS TODAY. RETURN TO SERVICE IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD NOT
SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
715 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH 17 UTC. AS A RESULT...DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14 UTC FOR
STUTSMAN...LAMOURE...DICKEY...LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES BASED
UPON WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KTS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL PER -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND
HEAVY RAIN VIA SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND CAPPING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES...CAPPING
PLACES UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD IT
FORM...MAY BE SEVERE. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 14-15 UTC.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPO AND PREVAILING THUNDER GROUPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO KISN/KMOT/KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS WITH THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE NEAR KISN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NOTE...PARTS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE KISN ASOS. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
ON-SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS ON MEMORIAL DAY. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AMD
NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ037-047-
048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR MISSING HYDRO SECTION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
643 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM DGW TO LAR THROUGH 14Z. WEBCAMS FROM ACROSS CARBON AND
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTIES SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AS DO A FEW
RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK LLVL
UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE FOG FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE MIXING KICKS IN
BY MID MORNING. ALSO REMOVED EARLY AM POPS FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH
A CLEAR RADAR SCREEN. KEPT ISO POPS GOING AFTER 16Z AS A FEW ECHOS
ARE SHOWING UP ON HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...BUT EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE IN AFTN. CANCELLED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BANNER
COUNTY AS EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER TSTMS HAS ENDED. CLOUD
TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH RIBBONS OF CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
LLVL CUMULUS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LOACATIONS EAST OF KLAR. CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD INTO TAFS
JUST YET AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WILL TRY TO
NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING ON THE 18Z TAFS. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY...BUT THIS MAY BE LIFTED SOON
AS ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATCH AREA. REFER
TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
511 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LOACATIONS EAST OF KLAR. CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD INTO TAFS
JUST YET AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WILL TRY TO
NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING ON THE 18Z TAFS. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
427 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06 TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLAR THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT ACTIVITY MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY...BUT THIS MAY BE LIFTED SOON
AS ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATCH AREA. REFER
TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
124 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL RESUME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT RESULTED IN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INLAND BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...ONSHORE
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PULLS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS THIS TROUGH IMPACT THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT INCREASES TO JUST
OVER +4.0 MB...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DIFFICULT LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE WRF BRINGS STRATUS IN AROUND 04Z FOR THE MONTEREY
BAY...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE SF BAY. HOWEVER...THE 15Z RUN OF
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT STRATUS WILL ACTUALLY RETREAT FROM THE
COAST. REGARDLESS...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CLOUDS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 04Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN POINT PINOS AND
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELLS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1014 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST AND 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND. COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TWO DRY
SYSTEMS DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER JUST
ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN WARMING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A GREAT
WEATHER DAY FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY TODAY. OVERNIGHT THE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT DESPITE THE 3.5 MB WESTERLY GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE, THE NORTHERLY FLOW WELL OVER 6 MB IS KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS WELL OFF THE COAST. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO RUNNING
QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENT TEMPS LEADING TO LOWER RH VALUES.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
PACIFIC THROUGH OUR CWA AND OVER INTO NEVADA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
TODAY AS A SYSTEM OFF THE BC COAST MOVES TO NEAR THE WASHINGTON
BORDER BY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A MINOR DROP (AROUND
2C) AT 850 MB, SO HIGHS FOR MANY SPOTS WILL RUN JUST A BIT COOLER
TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MOSTLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID
70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS IN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES COULD RETURN BACK TO THE 90S TODAY.
THE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTH LEADING TO COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA WHILE THE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE INCREASES. IN FACT, SOME LOCATIONS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD DROP TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST AND MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHS WILL DROP A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES -- UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS
WOULD GIVE US A COOL START TO THE START OF JUNE.
NO SIGN OF ANY ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT INCREASES TO JUST
OVER +4.0 MB...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DIFFICULT LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE WRF BRINGS STRATUS IN AROUND 04Z FOR THE MONTEREY
BAY...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE SF BAY. HOWEVER...THE 15Z RUN OF
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT STRATUS WILL ACTUALLY RETREAT FROM THE
COAST. REGARDLESS...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CLOUDS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD RETURN AFTER 04Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELLS WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM NOON
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAINING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS IN NY
WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART ENDED ACRS OUR AREA
FOR THE DAY. THE 3KM HRRR AND BOTH OUR LOCAL AND THE WFO BTV WRF
SHOW ONCE THESE MORNING SHOWERS END...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
FAR NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE AROUND 14 DEGREES C...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
REACHING LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS /MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN/. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...IT SHOULDN/T
FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE OUTDOORS AS IT OFTEN COULD BE FOR LATE MAY
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATER OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM AS AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK MILD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...OR MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
LATE IN THE DAY (OR EVEN EVENING). PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. THE WIND FLOW LOOKS NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BACKBUILDING CELLS...BUT TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SO FAR HAS
NOT PLACED ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO RAMP WITH
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED (MORE IF SUNSHINE IS GREATER THAN WE ARE
THINKING...WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE LIMITED). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RESPECTABLE...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6.0-6.5 KM/C RANGE.
ALSO THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE FORECASTED SOUNDING...ALBEIT WEAK. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DID NOT HAVE THIS CAPPING FEATURE
OBVIOUS.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAXING AROUND
30KTS...AGAIN RESPECTABLE BUT NOT "OFF THE CHARTS."
SO...WHILE WE ARE NOT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR EARLY THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WE AND SPC ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF IT AT THIS TIME TO
USE ENHANCED WORDING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT (HWO).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY AND COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND
80-85 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER
NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHATEVER FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIMP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THE PROBLEM IS BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST). THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE WIND TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD
HOLD LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST (COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL).
WHATEVER FALLS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE "SPITS" TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT
THAT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH SOMEWHERE
EITHER AROUND EASTERN NY OR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN
FRIDAY BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY.
ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS
IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HANDLING OF
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE COOLEST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTIES...NOT CHANGING CURRENT
FORECAST MUCH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUGGESTING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN BUT DRY...AS ANY POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND IN ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
MENTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...70S EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO OCCURS...IF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...COOLER AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW IS FURTHER EAST...THEN
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SFC
WINDS...AS WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS...ESP AT KALB/KPSF. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DURING TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A
S-SW DIRECTION AT 4-8 KTS. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WORKS TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH BKN CLOUDS OF 8-12 KFT
LIKELY. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATER IN THE AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY...BUT WILL MOVE ON
BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A BREEZE WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
10-15...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 MPH IN WIND PRONE PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION). RH
VALUES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT. (INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIGHT ACTUALLY LIMIT DEW FORMATION). AFTER A QUITE EVENING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THAT THREAT WILL
ESCALATE TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT AS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. AVERAGE
RAINFALL AVERAGES LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT AS
USUAL WITH CONVECTION...LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VERY LITTLE TO PERHAPS OVER AN INCH IN A FEW SELECT SPOTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE. RH VALUES WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
50 PERCENT MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
WATERSHEDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. AT THIS POINT...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING (PREVENT BACKBUILDING).
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE BUT NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAINING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS IN NY
WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART ENDED ACRS OUR AREA
FOR THE DAY. THE 3KM HRRR AND BOTH OUR LOCAL AND THE WFO BTV WRF
SHOW ONCE THESE MORNING SHOWERS END...IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
FAR NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.
850 HPA TEMPS ARE AROUND 14 DEGREES C...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
REACHING LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS /MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN/. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...IT SHOULDN/T
FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE OUTDOORS AS IT OFTEN COULD BE FOR LATE MAY
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATER OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM AS AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK MILD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...OR MORE LIKELY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
LATE IN THE DAY (OR EVEN EVENING). PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WELL
OVER AN INCH. THE WIND FLOW LOOKS NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN SPEED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BACKBUILDING CELLS...BUT TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SO FAR HAS
NOT PLACED ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO RAMP WITH
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED (MORE IF SUNSHINE IS GREATER THAN WE ARE
THINKING...WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE LIMITED). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN RESPECTABLE...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6.0-6.5 KM/C RANGE.
ALSO THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE FORECASTED SOUNDING...ALBEIT WEAK. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DID NOT HAVE THIS CAPPING FEATURE
OBVIOUS.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAXING AROUND
30KTS...AGAIN RESPECTABLE BUT NOT "OFF THE CHARTS."
SO...WHILE WE ARE NOT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR EARLY THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WE AND SPC ARE NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF IT AT THIS TIME TO
USE ENHANCED WORDING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT (HWO).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY AND COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND
80-85 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER
NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHATEVER FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIMP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THE PROBLEM IS BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST). THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE WIND TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD
HOLD LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST (COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL).
WHATEVER FALLS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE "SPITS" TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR FRONT
THAT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH SOMEWHERE
EITHER AROUND EASTERN NY OR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN
FRIDAY BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST FLOW
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY.
ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS
IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HANDLING OF
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE COOLEST
AIR INTO OUR REGION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTIES...NOT CHANGING CURRENT
FORECAST MUCH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUGGESTING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN BUT DRY...AS ANY POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND IN ONSHORE FLOW WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
MENTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...70S EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE WARMER AND DRYER SCENARIO OCCURS...IF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...COOLER AIRMASS AND ONSHORE FLOW IS FURTHER EAST...THEN
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.
THERE ARE AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KALB...KGFL...
KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE RAIN UPSTREAM HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT AND HAS NOT LOWERED CONDITIONS BELOW VFR...SO INDICATING VCSH
SINCE THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EVEN IF SOME RAIN AFFECTS
THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AFTER 15Z AS
CEILINGS AROUND 8000-10000 FEET SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AFTER THAT.
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH LATER IN THE MORNING. IT COULD BE GUSTY...TO NEAR 20
KT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT
EVERYWHERE AND BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY...BUT WILL MOVE ON
BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A BREEZE WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
10-15...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 MPH IN WIND PRONE PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION). RH
VALUES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT. (INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIGHT ACTUALLY LIMIT DEW FORMATION). AFTER A QUITE EVENING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THAT THREAT WILL
ESCALATE TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT AS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD ACTUALLY BE RAINFREE. AVERAGE
RAINFALL AVERAGES LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT AS
USUAL WITH CONVECTION...LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VERY LITTLE TO PERHAPS OVER AN INCH IN A FEW SELECT SPOTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE. RH VALUES WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
50 PERCENT MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OVER MOST AREAS...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
WATERSHEDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. AT THIS POINT...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING (PREVENT BACKBUILDING).
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE BUT NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
522 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
430 PM CDT
AREAS OF PULSY SUMMERTIME-TYPE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL WITH ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SLIGHT UNDULATING IN
EXACT AREAS AND COVERAGE BUT IN GENERAL STAYING NEAR THE SAME
THROUGH 7-8 PM OR SO. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STORM CORES
ASCENDING AND DESCENDING QUICKLY...WITH CORE HEIGHTS REMAINING
BELOW SEVERE HAIL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER
MANY OF THESE STORMS DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND CLOUD BASE OBSERVATIONS ADAPTED INTO RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS AND A SMALL MICROBURST POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
245 PM CDT
A TRANSITION TO LESS SETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POISED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RECENTLY BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOVELY WEATHER IS NOW POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ROUGHLY
FOUR...RIDING OVER THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CHANNEL...WITH THE FIRST ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS MATCH SATELLITE DATA IN SHOWING THE FOURTH IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THIS WOULD REACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN BETWEEN...WILL
PLAN TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TWO INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNFOCUSED WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRAP THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT POOLS ALONG A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE LAKE AND TOWARD THE WI LINE...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OTHER
EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY FRIDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
FURTHER BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA WITH LOCALLY VRB/GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OVER WESTERN IL AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING ACROSS WI...EASTERN IA...AND
WESTERN IL. EXPECTING SCATTERED TS COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN IL AND
NW INDIANA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. TS DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE FEATURES
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE THE
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS. IF THE SHOWERS DO OCCUR ONLY NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES MVFR CIGS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE...AND MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...INCLUDED HIGH END MVFR CIGS. SOME
GUIDANCE GOES AS LOW AS IFR CIGS...BUT FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
CIGS OF 2000-2500 FT RIGHT NOW.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN MEDIUM IN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE
CONVECTION GETS GOING. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TOMORROW EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT AIRPORTS...BUT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCTD TSRA AROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THEY WILL BE...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
158 PM CDT
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE
COVERAGING EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO PRODUCE A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
RESULT WILL BE NOT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST WITH VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR POISED TO SLIDE OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THEN A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...AND BRING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...WITH WINDS FINALLY TURNING NORTHWEST/NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTNERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG. THEN THRU THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK
WINDS REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WAVES TO GROW LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE GRADIENT IS ABLE TO INCREASE...WAVES WOULD LIKELY
BUILD HIGHER WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
431 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
430 PM CDT
AREAS OF PULSY SUMMERTIME-TYPE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL WITH ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SLIGHT UNDULATING IN
EXACT AREAS AND COVERAGE BUT IN GENERAL STAYING NEAR THE SAME
THROUGH 7-8 PM OR SO. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STORM CORES
ASCENDING AND DESCENDING QUICKLY...WITH CORE HEIGHTS REMAINING
BELOW SEVERE HAIL THRESHOLDS. GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER
MANY OF THESE STORMS DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...AND CLOUD BASE OBSERVATIONS ADAPTED INTO RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS AND A SMALL MICROBURST POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
245 PM CDT
A TRANSITION TO LESS SETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POISED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RECENTLY BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOVELY WEATHER IS NOW POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ROUGHLY
FOUR...RIDING OVER THIS RIDGE ARE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CHANNEL...WITH THE FIRST ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS MATCH SATELLITE DATA IN SHOWING THE FOURTH IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS BEING THE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THIS WOULD REACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS...SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN BETWEEN...WILL
PLAN TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TWO INTERMEDIATE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNFOCUSED WITH NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND TRAP THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE IT POOLS ALONG A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE LAKE AND TOWARD THE WI LINE...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CENTRAL IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OTHER
EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY FRIDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN
FURTHER BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OVER WESTERN IL AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING ACROSS WI...EASTERN IA...AND
WESTERN IL. EXPECTING SCATTERED TS COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN IL AND
NW INDIANA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. TS DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE FEATURES
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE THE
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS. IF THE SHOWERS DO OCCUR ONLY NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE ALSO FEATURES MVFR CIGS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE...AND MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...INCLUDED HIGH END MVFR CIGS. SOME
GUIDANCE GOES AS LOW AS IFR CIGS...BUT FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
CIGS OF 2000-2500 FT RIGHT NOW.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN MEDIUM IN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE
CONVECTION GETS GOING. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TOMORROW EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TODAY AND TOMORROW...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THEY WILL BE...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
158 PM CDT
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE
COVERAGING EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO PRODUCE A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
RESULT WILL BE NOT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST WITH VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR POISED TO SLIDE OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THEN A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...AND BRING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...WITH WINDS FINALLY TURNING NORTHWEST/NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTNERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG. THEN THRU THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK
WINDS REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WAVES TO GROW LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE GRADIENT IS ABLE TO INCREASE...WAVES WOULD LIKELY
BUILD HIGHER WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE THIS
EVENING WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXPANSIVE
RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. DESPITE THIS
FACT...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/CVA ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE WILL HELP NUDGE THIS COLD
FRONT SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF. A COMPARISON OF THE 12Z KILX AND KDTX SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATES
THIS ONGOING MOISTURE SURGE. LOCAL PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 1.75 INCHES BY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER A SLOW START THIS MORNING...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FINALLY SURGED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OUR
AREA. LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FINALLY NOSING INTO OUR CWA DESPITE PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE PROBLEM HERE REMAINS A LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT/TRIGGERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL DEPEND ON FINER
SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR GENERATES SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 22Z BUT SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER 00Z WHEN WHATEVER IS LEFT OF CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS FINALLY WASHES INTO OUR CWA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES US THOUGH. WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER END CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. IN VERY SUMMER-LIKE FASHION...EXPECT "POPCORN"
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LOW SEVERE RISK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT/LIMITED SHEAR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER.
SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PREVENT ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW HOWEVER. MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LITTLE
TO NO CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LOW...GENERALLY 1000
J/KG OR LESS...AND THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER RISK
IS THEREFORE LOW BUT ONCE AGAIN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING
AND TRAINING STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO MOVG THROUGH TOP OF WRN GRTLKS RIDGE THIS AFTN
EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD TO THE ERN GRTLKS BY TUE EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC
CDFNT TRAILING WSW THROUGH MN WILL BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA TUE NGT... THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH WED NGT. SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. INITIALLY WK DRY AIR PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION
PSBL EVEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL IN/OH. VERY WK FLOW/MOIST
AIRMASS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PSBL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTN/EVE WHEN
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED.
FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL
CONUS/CANADA AGAIN THU-FRI AS WEST COAST TROF DEEPENS. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RATHER
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... BUT STILL APPEARS IT
MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH TSTMS AND A FROPA IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE... WITH FROPA LOWERING TEMPS BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED TO AROUND 60F ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC TRIGGER
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED GIVEN LACK OF
SHEAR ALOFT. THIS MAKES NAILING DOWN AN EXACT TIMEFRAME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS DIFFICULT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY ONCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE CLEARER. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW WITH INCREASED COVERAGE DUE TO APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST ISSUES ARE ENDING PRECIPITATION TIMING FROM DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN STARTING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER SOUTH OF INDIANA BUT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY. GFS AND EURO
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH RAIN ENDING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WHILE CANADIAN
LINGERS INTO DAYTIME FRIDAY. WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCE IN SOUHWEST
COUNTIES FRIDAY MORN THEN DRY EVERYWHERE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORN.
GFS DRIVES FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR INTO GULF STATES WHILE
EURO DRIVES DRY AIR TO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY. EURO
FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
IN BY SUNDAY EVENING DRAWING MOISTURE BACK MORE QUICKLY AND
PROVIDING MEANS FOR LIFT AND STORMS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. GFS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT DAY LATER WITH THIS THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS LOW POPS SUNDAY ALREADY SO WILL KEEP FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER TO MATCH BETTER WITH WARMER MEX AND HPC NUMBERS WHILE DROPPED
BLENDED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR DUE IN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEMED
REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CIRRUS HAS SLOWED CUMULUS INITIATION FOR THE MOMENT BUT THESE
SHOULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL IN MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. MINOR TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NE ACROSS MISSOURI IS
AIDING THIS CONVECTION. SAME FEATURE LIFTING TOWARDS NW INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHWOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM 262000Z-270300Z BEFORE AIR STABILIZES.
SHOULD TAFS SITES SEE RAIN THEY COULD ALSO DEVELOP MVFR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY BUT RAIN UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS ADDING FOG.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER SORT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 271800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
RAPID REFRESH AND RAP MODELS HARDLY SHOW ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS WERE ALSO TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWPOINTS. WILL
DROP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS. OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS WILL DROP THEM TO 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SEE GOOD MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING AND NO
ORGANIZATION MECHANISM...BUT EASILY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING
THOUGH LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARM HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO MAJOR FORCING TO KEY IN ON
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH NO REAL AGREEMENT ON SUBTLE
WAVES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
DROPPING TO LOWER VALUES AT NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT WENT
WITH LIKELY IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AS WELL. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE
UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANY LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK...SO NO CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POISED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLIMO BIAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CIRRUS HAS SLOWED CUMULUS INITIATION FOR THE MOMENT BUT THESE
SHOULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL IN MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. MINOR TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NE ACROSS MISSOURI IS
AIDING THIS CONVECTION. SAME FEATURE LIFTING TOWARDS NW INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHWOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM 262000Z-270300Z BEFORE AIR STABILIZES.
SHOULD TAFS SITES SEE RAIN THEY COULD ALSO DEVELOP MVFR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY BUT RAIN UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS ADDING FOG.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER SORT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 271800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT ASSUMING THE
RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. BASIC
SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY
MONDAY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS BRINGING A DRY SLOT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
KGLD...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN SLOWLY
BECOMING WEST BY 07Z THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z AND FINALLY NORTHEAST
BY 18Z. SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM 00Z
THROUGH 03Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TERMINAL MOVING
GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE.
KMCK...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE TO 06Z
THEN VRB03-06KTS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TSRA POSSIBLE IN
THE COUNTY BUT NOT NEAR THE TERMINAL TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT PRESENT
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1248 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT ASSUMING THE
RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. BASIC
SEVERE PARAMETERS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY
MONDAY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS BRINGING A DRY SLOT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS
MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN THE EVENT A THUNDERSTORM
LOOKS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
1217 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND WILL START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHT RISES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT SUPPLIER OF
WETTER WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT
STEEP LAPSE RATES SLIDING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SOME INFLUENCE TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAKENING CAP. THEREFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE AS
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SURFACE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THESE EXPECTED VALUES...BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS
MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN THE EVENT A THUNDERSTORM
LOOKS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NW NEW MEXICO WITH PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL MOVING
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LOCALLY
OVER OUR CWA. I STILL THINK SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
APPROPRIATE...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VORT MAX
AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. MODERATE SB
CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...AND COULD
HELP LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEER IS STILL VERY WEAK...SO
OTHER THAN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (LOCALIZED
FLOODING)...THERE SHOULDNT BE A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
AMENDED HWO TO MENTION THIS LIMITED THREAT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD POOL
DOMINATED/UPPER LOW ACROSS PLAINS...HOWEVER THIS FAR NORTH THE
THREAT IS SO LOW IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THIS DISCUSSION
AT THIS POINT.
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE CWA...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A QUICKLY STABILIZING
POST SUNSET AIR MASS WILL HELP END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE...OTHERWISE I WENT WITH A
PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S) ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE
CWA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND WILL START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHT RISES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT SUPPLIER OF
WETTER WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT
STEEP LAPSE RATES SLIDING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SOME INFLUENCE TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAKENING CAP. THEREFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE AS
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SURFACE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THESE EXPECTED VALUES...BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SW KANSAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS
MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN THE EVENT A THUNDERSTORM
LOOKS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHTER ACTIVITY SPAWNING BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...THIS IS BRINGING AN END TO ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. A FEW TEMPS ARE A BIT OFF THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPLOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBS
AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER A
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE MENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LEAD TO THE DEW
POINTS STAYING UP IN THE MORE OPEN VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS
BEEN THE CULPRIT TO THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND SO HAVE PUT
THE FOG IN A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE GRIDS BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO TODAY...WITH THE
WEAKENED SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN
MANY OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A REMNANT AND VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WILL
SERVE AS A WEAK GRADIENT AREA TO HELP IN ANY DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
WEAK...THE INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
INSTABILITY. THE NAM TENDS TO SHOW A MOIST BIAS AND MODELS SOUNDINGS
USUALLY HAVE A LOT OF SURFACE CAPE AND SO CHECKED WITH THE GFS
SOUNDINGS. THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DEALING
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT IN THE NORTH.
FOR THE TONIGHT TIME FRAME...GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING...ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DWINDLING IN THE 00Z TO 06Z RANGE
BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A
CLOSED LOW THAT HAS UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FINALLY HAS DRIFTED EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS BUT STILL...THESE ARE
PRETTY WEAK FEATURES AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING TIMES. THEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HAVE STAYED MAINLY WITH CHANCE POPS. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH UPPER
TROUGHS OFF BOTH COASTS...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS MIDLANDS AND IS
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM QUAD CITIES
TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN CURVE INTO A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE EAST
AND WILL BE NEAR ARKLATEX. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER FRONT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL START MOVING BACK TO
EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN LODGED IN THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HAVE A BIT OF A CONCERN THAT AN MCS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL
ARRIVE. THE LAST MCS CREATED A LOT OF DAMAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND...HOWEVER TWEAKED THEM TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 23Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ANY PASSING SHOWER
OR STORM COULD BRING CEILINGS AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
IFR TEMPORARILY. EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BEFORE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURRING JUST
BEFORE DAWN...ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THREATEN ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AND WSW...PEAKING BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS FROM LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
LIGHTENING UP AT DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Mon May 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The winds have become calm over much of the area, so really having
to use dewpoints to find the warm front early this morning. As of
08Z, it appears to be running from just north of Madisonville,
Kentucky to just south of Mt Vernon Illinois. All 00Z guidance
pushes the warm front northeast of the area shortly after
daybreak, so it does not appear there will be an obvious surface
boundary to help focus convection today.
The last couple HRRR runs, the latest of which is from 05Z,
consistently develop a north to south oriented band of convection
just east of the Mississippi River late this morning. Not sure
exactly what is touching this off, but it may just be diurnal
heating. The ridge at 500mb and 700 mb will push east of the area
by 18Z today, so there could be a disturbance in the developing
southwest flow that is responsible. The main upper low will keep
Texas and Oklahoma wet, but should not be a factor for our area.
The 00Z Hi-Res WRF/ARW looks very similar to the HRRR, so will
have a band of chancy PoPs to mimic the HRRR in moving it east
through the Lakes by early afternoon. Will have at least slight
chances throughout the area in the afternoon.
Another tendency in the 00Z guidance is for convection to fire
over southern Missouri and then shift eastward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. This trend is also represented in the grids. Capped PoPs
at 40 percent in both enhanced areas.
After the diurnal convection dies down early this evening, much of
the tonight period should be dry. The NAM brings some convection
northeast mainly into west Kentucky near sunrise, so will
introduce a slight chance in the pre-dawn hours.
PoPs for Tuesday may be overdone. There will not be an obvious
surface boundary to work with, and 00Z NAM and GFS soundings
struggle to generate any instability. The upper low will continue
to plague areas from the southern Plains eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may actually gobble up the better Gulf
moisture before it can reach our area. Will have 30-40% PoPs
through the day, but the coverage may be more isolated.
The NAM and GFS bring a mid-level trough into the region, to the
north of the low. This could keep things percolating over our
region, especially in our northern and western counties Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Will keep a slight chance PoP Tuesday night
and 30-40% PoP on Wednesday.
Some patchy ground fog has developed over areas that received
significant rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. This is
noted in the METARs from KPAH to KMDH. Given the patchy and
shallow nature of the fog, do not plan to issue an advisory or
special weather statement at this time, but will mention in the
HWO and continue to monitor.
Temperatures jumped into the upper 80s over the southwest half of
the area yesterday behind the warm front, so would expect similar
conditions throughout the area today. In the absence of widespread
and persistent convection, more than currently forecast, would
expect similar readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely leaned
toward the warm side of guidance which was generally derived from
the GFS. The NAM really seems to be choking on the low-level
moisture over the area, so its MET guidance looks too cool.
With a general lack of instability over the area, and weak wind
profiles, organized severe weather does not seem likely. Of
course, as always, a stray storm could briefly pulse up to near
severe levels in the heat of the day. Precipitable water at or
above 1.5" is not at the top of the climatological charts, but it
is well above normal, so heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern, along with lightning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
The extended period will begin with a highly amplified pattern aloft
over the conus, with a ridge across the central section. A large
closed low in the mid levels over the Gulf Coast States is forecast
to slowly weaken and eventually dissipate while the central conus
ridge strengthens. Over next weekend, height falls over the PAH
forecast area will start to occur as nrn stream shrtwv energy
impinges on the central conus ridge.
At the sfc, a quasi-stationary boundary between the highest
dewpoint/humidity air to the south and somewhat drier air to the
north will be draped nw to se across the PAH forecast area for the
latter half of the week, then become more diffuse and move ewd away
from our region during the weekend. This boundary will provide some
focus for diurnally-driven shower and tstm activity, but it will be
difficult to tell exactly where activity will occur due to a slack
upper pattern over the PAH forecast area and persistent moist srly
low level flow. Convective activity is expected to be slow-moving
and may be conducive to localized flooding. The initialization blend
showed a decent signal for scattered showers and tstms for our
entire region Thu and Fri, especially during the day.
At this time, the med range models are in reasonable agreement with
the overall pattern over the conus, and indicate that a drier air
mass will sink swd through the Midwest and into our region from the
ne next Sat, confining deep moist convection to the swrn half of the
region. By Sun, return flow ahead of cold front sinking into the nrn
tier of states will deepen the moisture across our area again...
offering up a limited chance of pcpn.
Expect a stable temp pattern in this regime, with highs mostly in
the middle 80s except upper 80s Sun, and lows in the middle to upper
60s, with moderate humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
With the exception of MVFR vsbys in TSRA at KPAH/KEVV/KOWB between
18-21Z and BR at all sites between 09-13Z, VFR conditions expected through
the period. Winds will remain generally out of the south southwest
aob 10 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS FOR THE
EARLY EVE UPDATE BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MDL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER NE CANADA DROPS SOUTHWARD IN NW FLOW. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COOLING ALOFT...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE VALUES...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND EARLY PRECIP...INSTABILITY MAY BE
TEMPERED A BIT...BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO MET VALUES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SINCE THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING...BUT WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND DO NOT HAVE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE BIAS CORRECTED MOS VALUES FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF A DEPARTING BOUNDARY WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHOSE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MON/TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD...BUT
INCRSG SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL POSE A RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AS THE
TAF PD PROGRESSES.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL VIA SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN ONTARIO...TOO FAR N TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT
FORCING-WISE ACROSS UPPER MI AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LOCATION OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS
EXPECTED...CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE LAST 12 TO 18HRS. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
0.5 INCHES/72PCT OF NORMAL WHILE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED 1.45
INCHES/208PCT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...MORNING SUNSHINE LED TO QUICK
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND NOW SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W 2/3RDS OF UPPER MI. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYIS SHOWS MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. WEAK SHEAR
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT IS KEEPING STORMS IN CHECK. LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CLOSER TO 30KT HAS LED TO A FEW STRONG STORMS IN NE WI
TO THE W AND NW OF KMNM. STORMS THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF
CIRCULATION AND HAIL SIGNATURES. UPSTREAM...BEHIND COLD FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITH HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE...THE
STRATUS/FOG HAS COMPLETELY MIXED OUT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SHRA
THAT MOVED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HELPED GENERATE FOG
THAT HAS QUICKLY ADVECTED N TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS...FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER W AND CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR...APPARENTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOLELY EXISTING BECAUSE OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY END FROM N
TO S THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTING E FROM MN...AND MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING ACROSS NRN WI/ADJACENT UPPER MI. IN
LIGHT OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE WI/MI BORDER INTO
SCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG TODAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR GREATLY INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY
ONSHORE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...
FCST WILL REFLECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BEST
CHC OF LOWER VIS AND -DZ OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS FLOW BECOME MORE SHARPLY UPSLOPE IN THAT AREA.
ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS/-DZ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF -SHRA ALONG MI/WI BORDER INTO THE MID
AFTN HRS UNTIL DRIER AIR MAKES A STRONGER PRESENCE AS SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER S. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE COMPARED TO TODAY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET OUT
OF THE 50S AND SOME MAY SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 40S. ACROSS THE
S...MIXING TOWARD 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS...A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S INLAND WED AND THE LOWER 80S THU ...PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN THE FROM NNE WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY WEAK
SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
SAT-MON...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE RESULTING FROM A SHRTWV MOVING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RETAINED THERE SLOWER
SOLUTION AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE FASTER ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
DRY WEATHER BY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHILE THE GFS REMAINED SIGNFICANTLY
SLOWER. UNTIL THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO MON...PER MDLS CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE
WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SPARK SCT SHRA AND SOME TSRA THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KCMX IS ALREADY INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER THERE THIS AFTN. SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND KIWD/KSAW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA...CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER FROPA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE SHARPER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY
SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
20KT TO PREVAIL. IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SPREAD S TO THE UPPER
MI SHORE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS S INTO UPPER MI. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS...A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S INLAND WED AND THE LOWER 80S THU ...PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE IN THE FROM NNE WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY WEAK
SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN.
SAT-MON...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE RESULTING FROM A SHRTWV MOVING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RETAINED THERE SLOWER
SOLUTION AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE FASTER ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
DRY WEATHER BY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHILE THE GFS REMAINED SIGNFICANTLY
SLOWER. UNTIL THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO MON...PER MDLS CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE
WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SPARK SCT SHRA AND SOME TSRA THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KCMX IS ALREADY INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER THERE THIS AFTN. SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND KIWD/KSAW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA...CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER FROPA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE SHARPER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY
SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
154 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUE
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...AS THEY BECOME DISPLACED FROM
INSTABILITY. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A SHOWER AT
MBS AND FNT BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS ONTARIO BEGINS TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS (AROUND 5000 FEET) WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE WORKS
IN...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN HOWEVER TO MENTION IN TAFS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/TSTORMS WILL THEN EXIST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST LIKELY TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS WITH A PROB30 GROUP OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SHOWERS TOMORROW.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 21Z TO 12Z...THEN
MEDIUM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1110 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROGRESS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z NAM AND
13Z HRRR DO SEEM TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE WELL...AND DO NOT SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING
UNTIL BETWEEN 2PM AND 5 PM. THIS WILL BE AS A THETA-E RIDGE SURGES
INTO THE AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO DROP INTO THE AREA BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
ONTARIO...AND AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO COOL SLIGHTLY. DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND START TIMING A
LITTLE EARLIER...BUT THOUGHT IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY
OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN AS THEY DRAW CLOSER. THEY ARE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST
(HIGHER POPS/TIMING) ARE WARRANTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
QUIET START TO MEMORIAL DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z. THEN MOISTURE SURGE AT BOTH AROUND 850 MBS AND FROM
700/500 MBS AND ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
SUNSET.
WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE
IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A 50-60 KT JET STREAK...WILL BRING OUR
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS VERY LATE TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE JET GETS US INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT DOES HAVE JUST A BIT OF 700-500 MB
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MIXED LAYER CAPES TAKE ALL DAY TO
GET TO ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY SUNSET AND MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED ML
LAYER OVERNIGHT. NO SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH SHEAR WITH WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN AT ABOUT 20-25 KTS AT 850 MBS AND 25-30 KTS AT 500 MBS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER
ON A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
STORM MOTION ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 20 MPH...WILL GET ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP.
WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT OUR 850 TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY. WILL NOT
GO TOO MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS PAST 18Z.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
QUITE THE LITTLE QUANDARY SETTING UP FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DESPITE LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE WAVELENGTH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS ALL SEEMS
POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF TWO REASONS: 1. THE COLD AND STABLE GREAT LAKES
ARE A GREAT ENVIRONMENT THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR ANTICYCLOGENESIS.
SO...ONCE A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO THE STABLE AGGREGATE A POSITIVE
FEEDBACK LOOP DEVELOPS ALLOWING LAKE SCALE MESOHIGHS TO CLEAR THE
COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 2. THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A COMPONENT OF LINKED COLD
CONVEYOR/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SPUR THE FRONT SOUTHWARD.
THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE A GOOD MARKER FOR THE PSEUDO
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. POSITIONING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OR
THE STRAITS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...BECOMING ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THETA E PROGS SUPPORT A TON OF MOISTURE
ALIGNING/POOLING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1.70 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED AS EARLY AS 10/11 AM LDT. BEEN TRYING TO FIND A WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE
PROBLEM IS ONE IS NOT PRESENTING ITSELF MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TIME
A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY DUE TO WAVE SUBSIDENCE. SO...IT APPEARS
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION OF PULSE TYPE CONVECTION.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS INDICATES LITTLE TO NO STORM
ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE ONLY
CONCERN. GIVEN MOS AND RAW OUTPUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FELT IT
PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS IT IS EXPECTED
THAT NUMEROUS COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A GREATER PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AGGREGATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIPS TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. ATTM...GIVEN LACK OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE ADEQUATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUPPORTING A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS THE NEAR
SURFACE THETA E MAXIMUM BECOMING ADVECTED INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY DRAPED TO SOUTH
OF LAKE ERIE SUGGESTS SOME LOW END SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LENAWEE COUNTY. OTHERWISE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
TAKE THE HUMIDITY OUT OF THE AIR AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING A
COMFORTABLE MID 70S.
AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HOLD OVER THE AGGREGATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING
THE NWP SOLUTIONS ROLL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SATURDAY COULD BE WARM TO HOT DAY AS SOME LARGE
SCALE SIGNALS ARE POINTING TO TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDING OVER
DIRECTLY OVER MICHIGAN. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO ALOT OF SUBSIDENCE
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MARINE...
BACKGROUND FORCING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO QUIET WIND
AND WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED. LAKE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A HUMID AIRMASS POOLS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH DRIER AIR.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS AND INTO ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF CLOSED UPR LO IN THE SRN
ROCKIES. A DEEP MSTR PLUME IS APRNT ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING NNEWD FM
TEXAS THRU THE PLAINS AND INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE DEEP SSW FLOW
BTWN THE CLOSED LO AND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
FAIRLY STRONG STRONG SHRTWV IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG
AND INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS N OF THE
BORDER...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TS SHOWN OVER NRN MN AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD THRU NW MN INTO SDAKOTA. THE 00Z
GRB RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AT 0.50 INCH...ABOUT 75
PCT OF NORMAL...SO THERE IS QUIET WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME HI CLDS. BUT THE 00Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A MUCH
MOISTER AIRMASS WITH PWAT UP TO 1.41 INCHES...OR ALMOST 200 PCT OF
NORMAL. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLY HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR...THE 00Z MPX
RAOB IS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SFC-H85 LYR AND ABV H65. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FORCING SO FAR S OF NW ONTARIO SHRTWV AND NE
OF CLOSED LO...THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES AT MPX ARE ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE.
THERE HAVE NO SHRA OBSVD TO THE SW OF UPR MI IN MN/WI SO FAR.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON SHRA/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF HIER MSTR TO THE SW AND ONTARIO
SHRTWV/ATTENDANT COLD FNT.
TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE E WELL
TO THE N OF UPR MI WITH ONLY SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF COMMA TAIL MSTR BAND IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT
IMPACTING UPR MI MAINLY THIS MRNG. THE SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND SAG SLOWLY INTO THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES ARND 00Z. WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR CNVGC INTERACTS WITH THE HIER MSTR MOVING INTO THE CWA FM
THE SW THIS MRNG...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS OVER THE WRN
CWA...THE CHC OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL RAOBS. AS THE MID LVL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO THE WNW THIS AFTN ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV MOVING
AWAY IN NRN ONTARIO...THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MSTR WL BE CUTOFF AS UPR
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. BUT THEN SFC HEATING/LK BREEZE DVLPMNT
AND ACCOMPANYING LLVL CNVGC ALONG THESE BNDRYS/HIER SFC DEWPTS TO
THE S OF SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT WL COME INTO PLAY AND TRIGGER SCT
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR DESPITE THE SLOW MID LVL
WARMING/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
ACCOMPANYING THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNGS
FOR T/TD OF 82/60 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TS AWAY FM LK COOLING.
WITH WEAK SHEAR UNDER RDG AXIS/UNIMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...
NONE OF THE STORMS SHOULD TURN SVR.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE CWA. SHRA/TS
THAT ACCOMPANY SFC HEATING/LK BREEZES THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG. BUT SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME
QVECTOR CNVGC WL RIPPLE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS...OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME LO CHC POPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND DOES NOT SHOW THIS TRAILING SHRTWV. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...
THERE WL LIKELY BE NO SHOWERS BUT INSTEAD SOME FOG WITH LINGERING
LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING. BEHIND THE
FROPA...WSHFT TO THE NNE/RATHER SHALLOW INFLUSION OF COOLER AIR THAT
SHARPENS LO INVRN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LO CLDS/FOG OVER
MAINLY THE N PER NAM FCST SDNGS. TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE N NEAR
LK SUP WITH ADVCTN OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
OVERALL THIS IS A PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL STALL OUT
JUST S/SW OF THE CWA WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE N. MOST
PRECIP FORCED FROM THE FRONT SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WILL FOG/DRIZZLE OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NRN UPPER
MI. THE 00Z/26 NAM HITS THIS THE HARDEST IN SHOWING QPF RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORELINES THROUGH MUCH OF TUE...AND THIS IS ALSO ALLUDED TO BY
THE GEM-NH AND THE GFS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BEFORE
TUESDAY...INCREASING SFC DEW PTS DUE TO CONTINUED RETURN FLOW TODAY
MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF PRIMARILY
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT IF SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG DEVELOPS FOG AND
POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ONLY ADDED PATCHY FOG TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL
UPPER MI. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN...SO CLOUD COVER WILL
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
LIKELY WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON TUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. INLAND...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THU WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE CWA WITH NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA. SFC RIDGING THEN
TAKES HOLD AGAIN ON FRI...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED AND MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SPARK SCT SHRA AND SOME TSRA THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KCMX IS ALREADY INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER THERE THIS AFTN. SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND KIWD/KSAW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA...CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER FROPA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO LIFR WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE SHARPER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AS HIGH LATE MAY
SUN ANGLE WORKS TO MIX OUT MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY
WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WITHIN AN AXIS OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS...AND PULSE UP FOR A FEW SCANS
THEN FIZZLE. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO
HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND A FEW GUSTS OF 40KTS AS THE CELLS
COLLAPSE.
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. HRRR AND
RAP INDICATE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA...CLOSER TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND HAVE TRENDED
POPS THIS WAY.
THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TSTMS COULD FORM ONCE AGAIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES SLIDE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG SAME
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW A SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING ON WHEN THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER OUR AREA
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE CONTINUED POPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR ANY STORM TO ROLL OVER A TAF SITE IS SMALL...HAVE ADDED
THIS TO THE TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE GREATER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. AFTER THE EVENING HOURS...CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE. AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 12Z AT
ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MUCAPE MAGNITUDES THIS
AFTERNOON (1000 J/KG WEST). HOWEVER...0-6 KM WIND SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KNOTS STILL COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT
COULD GENERATE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL GRADAULLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHIFTED FOCUS FOR MORNING FOG OVER AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AS PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS FOR NOW...WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH 17 UTC. AS A RESULT...DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14 UTC FOR
STUTSMAN...LAMOURE...DICKEY...LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES BASED
UPON WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25 TO 40 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20-30 KTS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE.
LARGE HAIL PER -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG AND
HEAVY RAIN VIA SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND CAPPING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT WHEN GREATER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES...CAPPING
PLACES UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH SHOULD IT
FORM...MAY BE SEVERE. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THAT SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM WATFORD CITY TO KDIK AND INTO KBIS FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE IFR STRATUS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A VFR
CU FIELD BY 20Z AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 22Z...THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO KMOT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND INTO KBIS
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE EN ROUTE TO FIX THE KISN ASOS. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
AMD NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE ON THE
MOVE TO THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MOST ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN THE LOW CENTER CROSSES INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS...PLACING NORTH TEXAS IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION REGARDING LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM NORTH
TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT EAST AND NORTHEAST GATES OF DFW TRACON FOR A SHORT
WHILE LONGER BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN OK. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXTRAPOLATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CELLS ...ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR DATA INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
REACHING WESTERN COUNTIES 02-03Z...THEN THE METROPLEX JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE MAY MOVE UP THE TIMING OF VCTS FROM 10Z TO 07Z OR 08Z
BASED ON THIS DATA. SIMILAR TIMING IS ANTICIPATED FOR WACO AND WE
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS AT KACT AS WELL BEGINNING 07Z OR
08Z.WE MAY HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ADDITION OF A TEMPO
GROUP...OPTING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TRENDS UPSTREAM PLAY OUT.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE ADDITION OF VCTS
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMPLEX SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE LARGELY SHUT OFF FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF A CANTON...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE LINE THROUGH
SUNSET. IT IS BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT IT MAKES SENSE THAT
THE WESTERN ZONES THAT ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME SUN ARE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE TO DESTABILIZE AND SEE DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND MOST BASINS
ARE VERY DRY AND CAN TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF WATER. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO CELL TRAINING...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WE STILL EXPECT
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN A WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARM
UP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING SUN AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT SOME 90S TO RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY
THE LAST DAY OF MAY. SINCE THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
79
79
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...THE
PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND MOST BASINS
ARE VERY DRY AND CAN TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF WATER. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO CELL TRAINING...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WE STILL EXPECT
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN A WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARM
UP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING SUN AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT SOME 90S TO RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY
THE LAST DAY OF MAY. SINCE THE GULF WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
79
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 69 81 66 88 70 / 60 70 40 20 30
WACO, TX 69 82 67 86 66 / 50 70 40 20 30
PARIS, TX 68 78 64 82 66 / 50 70 60 20 30
DENTON, TX 70 82 64 86 65 / 70 70 40 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 69 79 64 85 65 / 60 70 50 20 30
DALLAS, TX 69 82 68 85 70 / 60 70 40 20 30
TERRELL, TX 69 80 64 85 67 / 50 70 60 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 68 81 67 83 67 / 50 70 60 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 70 84 67 84 65 / 40 60 40 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 82 64 83 65 / 70 60 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAFS ACROSS SE TX THE NEXT 6-9 HRS WILL BE A VERY CHAOTIC WITH
POSSIBLY LOTS OF AMMENDMENTS. FIRST WATCHING CONVECTION OVER C TX
WHICH SHOULD IMPACT KCLL THE NEXT 1-4HRS. SFC OBS BEHIND THE LINE
OF STORMS WHICH IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A MCV DO HAVE WINDS FROM THE
NW BEHIND THE STORM WITH A DECENT COLD POOL. POSSIBLE THIS LINE OF
STORMS COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS KUTS/KCXO AND KIAH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VCTS TO ACCOUNT BUT WILL AMMEND TO TSRA AS
STORMS INCH CLOSER. STORMS COMING FROM THE SW WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT
KSGR SO WILL START WITH VCTS AT 19Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
KHOU/KLBX/KGLS ALL ARE A BIG QUESTION. WRF/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE ARE
NOT ALL THAT USEFUL. HRRR SEEMS TO FILL IN CONVECTION BETWEEN
STORMS TO THE SW AND LINE OVER C TX. LOCATIONS ARE OFF QUITE A BIT
BUT ACCOUNTING FOR THESE DIFFERENCES MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS/TSRA TO
THESE TAFS. AGAIN WILL PROBABLY MONITOR AND AMMEND IF NECESSARY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS HAVE A BREAK IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH
NAM/WRF-ARW ETC SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FOR TUE MORNING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PCPN OUT WEST STILL HOLDING TOGETHER THIS LATE MORNING AND BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE GRIDS TO INCREASE POP
NUMBERS FOR THE CWA THIS AFTN. LINGERING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AT/
AROUND JACKSON COUNTY PROVING TO BE THE WINNER SO FAR TODAY WITH
REGARD TO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/
THE LAST FULL WORK WEEK OF MAY IS SETTING UP TO BE WET FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ALONG THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO TWO
INCHES)... FAVORABLE/SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND THE VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST WILL CARRY THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THINK THAT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COULD
EASILY REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY IN AND AROUND MUCH OF THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA.
FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THIS
EVENT. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER OUR
AREA AS THE WEEK COMES TO AN END...SO WILL GO WITH ONLY GRADUALLY
LOWERING POPS AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 71 83 70 83 / 40 40 60 50 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 72 84 71 84 / 40 40 50 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 75 83 74 83 / 20 20 30 40 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT POSITIONED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
75+ KT JET STREAK AND BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THOUGH...DESPITE ML CAPES INCREASING
TO GREATER THAN 800 J/KG...COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE...THUS HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP DOWN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE SO ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY LOW. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
LITTLE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE COOL FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BECOME HARD TO DISCERN BY THE TIME IT POSSIBLY
REACHES CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUE. SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT UNTIL DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. WITH SUCH LIGHT WIND FIELDS
ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING CONVERGENCE PRODUCING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS THAT
MOVES EAST INTO THE STATE AND HELPS PRODUCE AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELEVATED
CAPES IN THIS AREA WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG SO WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
PLACE THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS REMAIN
UNDER 20 KTS ALOFT...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FURTHER NORTH. WITH SUCH
A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD HAVE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL NOT RESIDE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SO PWATS WILL REMAIN
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL DROP
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH SHOULD BE BREACHED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
(STILL RATHER WEAK) DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA...AM THINKING
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY SO DROPPED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE DRIER AIR DOES START TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL END PRECIP
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIKE TODAY...WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL. BUT ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PROGS DIMINISH THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR A DRY PERIOD. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
PIECES OF ENERGY CAN WORK OVER THE RIDGE AND THEN SLIP INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW MODELS HINT OF A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVER THE FAR NROTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MILD DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK BUT WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW...COOLER READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE BAY
AND LAKESHORE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
THOUGH THE RADAR IS LARGELY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...THE TREND WILL BE
FOR INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STORMS. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT
CONDITIONS AS VFR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...REACHING RHI LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAN FARTHER NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME...WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS POPPING UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
321 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER 2 INCHES FROM CHEYENNE
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO
REGENERATE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE (MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG)
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE REGION OF BEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1200-1500
J/KG) SOUTHEAST OF A LARAMIE...TO SCOTTSBLUFF TO CHADRON LINE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF KIMBALL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO
BACK BUILD AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO TO START DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASED
INSTABILITY. 18Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z...BUT HANGS ON TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST COMING OUT OF THE CASPER AREA. PROBLEM
IS...HRRR HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH MID EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW...DEEP LAYERED DRYSLOT (AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO UTAH)
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WITH LOWER TO MAYBE
EVEN A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT PROCESS
ABOVE 9000 FT...AND WILL CAUSE RISES AND AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT
ON SOME RIVERS IN THE WEST (PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC
DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH PRECIP COVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO PULL UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WESTERN
ZONES WILL SEE THE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT WEST. ECMWF MOST BULLISH ON
QPF WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS RAINFALL MAINLY OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP GETS GOING. ECMWF HAS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA ALL THE
WAY UP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. GFS PWATS OVER RAWLINS
INCREASES FROM ROUGHLY .45 INCHES TO OVER .60 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MODERATE CU DEVELOPMENT ALREADY THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO START
TSTMS EARLIER HERE AT KCYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONVECTION BLOOMING OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 21Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 01Z OR SO. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. FUELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GREEN UP AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOW PACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE RIVER
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE MOST
GAUGE SITES ARE NOW IN FLOOD WARNINGS. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER RAIN ON SNOW EVENT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARMON
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1124 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MODERATE CU DEVELOPMENT ALREADY THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO START
TSTMS EARLIER HERE AT KCYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONVECTION BLOOMING OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE 21Z TIMEFRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 01Z OR SO. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME GAGE SITES EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY...BUT THIS MAY BE LIFTED SOON
AS ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATCH AREA. REFER
TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND
FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......GARMON
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY......HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1053 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
ABOUT TO RELEASE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. 14Z HRRR MODEL IS SUGGESTING STORMS MAY FORM IN
THE CASPER AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DOUGLAS LUSK AREAS BEFORE SUNSET. ALSO INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE MUDDY GAP...RAWLINS...MEDICINE BOW AREAS WHERE
SOME CUMULUS IS ALREADY FORMING. ALSO RAISED HOURLY TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UP THROUGH THE DOUGLAS
AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AND LOWER DEGREE OF MECHANICAL
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT
FASTER...BUT STILL THINK WHAT WE HAVE ADVERTISED FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY IS IN THE BALLPARK SO NO CHANGES THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM DGW TO LAR THROUGH 14Z. WEBCAMS FROM ACROSS CARBON AND
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTIES SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AS DO A FEW
RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK LLVL
UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE FOG FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE MIXING KICKS IN
BY MID MORNING. ALSO REMOVED EARLY AM POPS FROM THE PANHANDLE WITH
A CLEAR RADAR SCREEN. KEPT ISO POPS GOING AFTER 16Z AS A FEW ECHOS
ARE SHOWING UP ON HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...BUT EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE IN AFTN. CANCELLED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BANNER
COUNTY AS EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER TSTMS HAS ENDED. CLOUD
TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH RIBBONS OF CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
LLVL CUMULUS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER BANNER
AND SOUTHERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS REGENERATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE
AFTER 08Z THIS AM. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. LOOKS LIKE
PCPN HAS DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THOSE CONCERNS...AND THE
CURRENT SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE RUC INDICATED AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PERHAPS
OLD OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN CO / DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MIDLVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWNTREND PER KCYS RADAR LOOP...ADDED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM ABOUT BFF TO AIA AND CDR AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY MIDLVL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. THE MODELS
MOVE THAT SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTN. NARROW RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN ITS PLACE...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE VORT LOBE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
BIT LIMITED COMPARED TO SUN. LESSER CHANCES OUT WEST BENEATH THE
RIDGE. FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW MODEST CAPES OF AROUND
250 TO 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTN...SO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. PULSE
TYPE STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THOUGH WITH H5 FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WITH THE LOW STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WAS
BETTER ON SUN AFTN.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10C ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TUE AND WED. AS SUCH...CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING EVEN WARMER FOR WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000 TO 500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES APPROACHING 580 DM. MAV AND MET BOTH SHOW MID 90S
FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...SO CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD ON FCST
HIGHS OUT THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
BIG CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE VERY WARM AIR WILL
RAPIDLY MELT SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING AREA RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH...AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY SHOULD START TO SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOLER AIR SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO THE MODELS
STILL INDICATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE RIVER
FLOODING. FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOKING CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LOACATIONS EAST OF KLAR. CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD INTO TAFS
JUST YET AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WILL TRY TO
NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING ON THE 18Z TAFS. WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP AND SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-
115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER