Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/25/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
121 PM MST FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE STORM WILL
ALSO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST AGITATED CU AS BEEN ACROSS
THE NERN ZONES WHERE AS OF 20Z SOME DESCENT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THE BE THE PRIME SPOT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STILL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS BASES OF THE
STORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE SECONDARY CU FIELD OUT WEST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BEING RIGHT UNDER THE SLOW MOVING LOW. POINT
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THAT AREA SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS WELL...SO THESE STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
PRODUCERS. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED THE MAINLY DRY QPFS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE STATE THE FOCUS
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF
TUCSON. THAT BEING SAID...TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE CENTER OF
THE LOW GENERALLY OVERHEAD HAVE NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS TUCSON TO MT
GRAHAM. AFTER SUNSET THOUGH THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO RAP AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WINDOW LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT FOR
WETTING RAINS. THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALSO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY MORNING.
THEN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THOUGH
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SWRN CONUS. HAVE TRENDED THIS PACKAGE SLIGHTLY DRIER IN
THE EXTENDED THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MORE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...MID RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SMALL SHORTWAVE LOW RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE PRIOR TO THE MAIN
TROUGH. THIS WOULD CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FOR MUCH MORE THAN LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
AN UPPER LOW IS NOW ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 10-12K FT MAINLY ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE
COUNTIES WITH ISOLD -TSRA ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KSAD THRU
24/03Z. GUSTY SW WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KDUG AND
ALSO NEAR -TSRA...WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 24/03Z BECOMING LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10
KT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD -TSRA
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON AS AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
LIGHTNING AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VIRGA WITH
LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
151 WILL MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WARNING.
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST SATURDAY... MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL STILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN GENERAL.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
SATURDAY. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...LADER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR BLYTHE THIS MORNING. VORT
MAXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE VORT MAX THAT WENT
THROUGH OUR AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER BUT YET
ANOTHER IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. LATEST
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA IN LA PAZ...YUMA...AND WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES.
DESPITE FAVORABLE QG FORCING...MODELS ARE RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHICH IF IT DEVELOPED COULD ADVECT
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAD BEEN CONSIDERING AN
UP-RAMP IN POPS FOR TODAY BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 245 AM...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN AZ TODAY. ALTHOUGH VORTICITY FORCED ASCENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY STRONG AND ORGANIZED ACROSS AZ...MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
CLEARLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND EAST OF THE
REGION. NEVERTHELESS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL NOT CONTAIN MUCH RAIN. INSTEAD THE GREATER THREAT
REMAINS DRY LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST.
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...DETERMINING THE EXACT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PHOENIX AREA CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...GENERALLY AROUND 10KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS...EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...IF THEY FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/REDUCED
VSBYS. AREAS FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY...ACROSS FAR WESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY COULD SEND OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO WITH REDUCED VSBYS
DUE TO DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING
ANY OUTFLOW WINDS INTO THE PHX METRO...LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX THROUGH MONDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT LIKELY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAINING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS GREATLY DROP BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN PLACE WITH WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CALM...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....DEWEY/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
955 AM MST FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR BLYTHE THIS MORNING. VORT
MAXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE VORT MAX THAT WENT
THROUGH OUR AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER BUT YET
ANOTHER IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. LATEST
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA IN LA PAZ...YUMA...AND WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES.
DESPITE FAVORABLE QG FORCING...MODELS ARE RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHICH IF IT DEVELOPED COULD ADVECT
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAD BEEN CONSIDERING AN
UP-RAMP IN POPS FOR TODAY BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 245 AM...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN AZ TODAY. ALTHOUGH VORTICITY FORCED ASCENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY STRONG AND ORGANIZED ACROSS AZ...MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
CLEARLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND EAST OF THE
REGION. NEVERTHELESS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL NOT CONTAIN MUCH RAIN. INSTEAD THE GREATER THREAT
REMAINS DRY LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST.
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...DETERMINING THE EXACT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PHOENIX AREA CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...GENERALLY AROUND 10KT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE STRONGEST STORMS IF THEY FORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST/REDUCED VSBYS. THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR MIDDAY
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT PER HI-RES MODELS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...WHERE ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS COULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF BLYTHE NEAR 23/1800Z. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY COULD SEND OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO
WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING ANY OUTFLOW WINDS INTO THE PHX METRO...LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY WHILE THE
ALREADY SLOW MOVING LOW MAKES A SLOWER EXIT TO THE EAST. LATEST
FORECAST RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EXIT OF THIS WEEKEND`S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH RESIDUAL TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO MONDAY. WETTING RAINS FROM STORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY NOT
LIKELY...WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAINING THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM CHANCES A GREATLY
REDUCED FOR MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING AND BREEZINESS
COULD BE GENERATED MONDAY WITH A SLOWER LOW EXIT. ONCE THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE
RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....NOLTE/MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
508 AM MST FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN AZ TODAY. ALTHOUGH VORTICITY FORCED ASCENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY STRONG AND ORGANIZED ACROSS AZ...MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
CLEARLY LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND EAST OF THE
REGION. NEVERTHELESS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL NOT CONTAIN MUCH RAIN. INSTEAD THE GREATER THREAT
REMAINS DRY LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST.
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...DETERMINING THE EXACT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PHOENIX AREA CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...GENERALLY AROUND 10KT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE STRONGEST STORMS IF THEY FORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST/REDUCED VSBYS. THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR MIDDAY
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT PER HI-RES MODELS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...WHERE ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS COULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF BLYTHE NEAR 23/1800Z. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY COULD SEND OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX METRO
WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING ANY OUTFLOW WINDS INTO THE PHX METRO...LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY WHILE THE
ALREADY SLOW MOVING LOW MAKES A SLOWER EXIT TO THE EAST. LATEST
FORECAST RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EXIT OF THIS WEEKEND`S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH RESIDUAL TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO MONDAY. WETTING RAINS FROM STORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY NOT
LIKELY...WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAINING THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM CHANCES A GREATLY
REDUCED FOR MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING AND BREEZINESS
COULD BE GENERATED MONDAY WITH A SLOWER LOW EXIT. ONCE THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE
RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....NOLTE/MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AZ
TODAY. ALTHOUGH VORTICITY FORCED ASCENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG
AND ORGANIZED ACROSS AZ...MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE CLEARLY LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND EAST OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
NOT CONTAIN MUCH RAIN. INSTEAD THE GREATER THREAT REMAINS DRY
LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...DETERMINING THE EXACT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PHOENIX AREA CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10KT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN AZ
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE
STRONGEST STORMS IF THEY FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MAKE AN EXIT FROM
THE REGION MOVING EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ THROUGH
SUNDAY...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT
AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY/HIRSCH
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
100 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS
AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...STARTING TO GET A FEW BUILDUPS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LA/SBD COUNTY LINE BUT OBVIOUSLY MUCH QUIETER SO
FAR THAN YESTERDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHANCE OF A STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN SAN GABRIELS AS SOME
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
COLORADO RIVER, THOUGH THE HRRR MODEL NOW INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WARMER
AIR ALOFT, SHRINKING THE MARINE LYR BY A GOOD 1000 FT. WEB CAMS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ALREADY SHOWING LOWER CLOUD BASES OFFSHORE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL BRING
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTY WITH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION, THOUGH WITH LOWER BASES. WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO FILL IN ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY DUE TO THE WEAK SUNDOWNERS
THERE THIS EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PEAKING EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY
WITH LESS INLAND PUSH. WILL LIKELY REACH THE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
HUGGING THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING SOME BEACHES
OVERCAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEYS WILL WARM UP INTO
THE 80S SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 MONDAY, COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTERIOR SLO COUNTY WILL BE A
DAY AHEAD WITH THE WARMING BEING CLOSER TO THE RIDGE SO PLACES LIKE
PASO ROBLES WILL BE THE 90S BY SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE TROF NEXT WEEK, MEANING A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE OF OPINION WITH
REGARD TO THE START OF THE COOLING TREND. OTHERWISE REALLY NO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PATERN. BOTH MODELS INDICATE ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS BY THU AND FRI WITH THE
MARINE LYR PUSHING BACK INTO THE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AFTER
24/20Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER 24/05Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH TOPS 35-40KFT WILL MOVE SOUTH AT APPROXIMATELY 20KT.
INCREASING STABILITY AFTER 24/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY
11KFT THIS MORNING WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 2KFT AFTER 24/12Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/06Z AND AFTER 25/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK GRADIENT.
.KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 23/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 026 BETWEEN
24/04-24/08Z AND CHANCE CIGS 017 BETWEEN 24/08-24/20Z.
.KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 020 BETWEEN 24/09-24/11Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 014
AFTER 24/11Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...23/100 PM.
THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE INNER WATERS ALONG
THE SLO COAST SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A CATALINA EDDY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LATE EVENING EACH NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH WILL PERSIST.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1101 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS...AND A CONTINUATION OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LI`S AROUND -5 THERE, BUT MOST OF THE
OTHER PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS
FROM THE AV SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K
FT, YIELDING LESS AVAILABLE CAPE. LAST COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE
INDICATED JUST VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NAM DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
JUST BARELY ACROSS THE LA/SBD COUNTY LINE. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A
PRETTY GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER IN SRN NV
MOVING THIS WAY. SO, GIVEN ALL THESE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTING FACTORS
IT`S PRUDENT TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THERE. AT THE
VERY LEAST WE WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS AND A SHOWER OR TWO.
TEMPS TODAY MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND AV WHERE THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS YESTERDAY TO COOL THINGS OFF.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST BECOMES RATHER BLAND AS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
BECOME STRONGER AND BETTER ESTABLISHED. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE A
TYPICAL LATE MAY PATTERN WITH STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD INLAND
PENETRATION EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. EACH AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE BEACHES EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT A WARMING
TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMING WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED ACROSS THE BEACHES.
AS FOR WINDS...WILL EXPECT TYPICAL ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE GUSTIEST WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE NORTHERLY PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY/TUESDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE
DISTRICT...AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
FORECAST-WISE...THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE RATHER
UNREMARKABLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS...THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG IMPACTING THE COASTS AND VALLEYS THROUGH
THE PERIOD (WITH THE TYPICAL DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN INLAND
EXTENT). AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AFTER
24/20Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER 24/05Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH TOPS 35-40KFT WILL MOVE SOUTH AT APPROXIMATELY 20KT.
INCREASING STABILITY AFTER 24/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY
11KFT THIS MORNING WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 2KFT AFTER 24/12Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/06Z AND AFTER 25/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK GRADIENT.
.KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 THROUGH 23/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 026 BETWEEN
24/04-24/08Z AND CHANCE CIGS 017 BETWEEN 24/08-24/20Z.
.KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 020 BETWEEN 24/09-24/11Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 014
AFTER 24/11Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...23/900 AM.
THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE INNER WATERS ALONG
THE SLO COAST SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A CATALINA EDDY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LATE EVENING EACH NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH WILL PERSIST.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS...AND A CONTINUATION OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LI`S AROUND -5 THERE, BUT MOST OF THE
OTHER PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS
FROM THE AV SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K
FT, YIELDING LESS AVAILABLE CAPE. LAST COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE
INDICATED JUST VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NAM DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
JUST BARELY ACROSS THE LA/SBD COUNTY LINE. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A
PRETTY GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER IN SRN NV
MOVING THIS WAY. SO, GIVEN ALL THESE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTING FACTORS
IT`S PRUDENT TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THERE. AT THE
VERY LEAST WE WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS AND A SHOWER OR TWO.
TEMPS TODAY MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND AV WHERE THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS YESTERDAY TO COOL THINGS OFF.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST BECOMES RATHER BLAND AS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
BECOME STRONGER AND BETTER ESTABLISHED. SO...WILL ANTICIPATE A
TYPICAL LATE MAY PATTERN WITH STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD INLAND
PENETRATION EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. EACH AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE NICELY ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE BEACHES EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT A WARMING
TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMING WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED ACROSS THE BEACHES.
AS FOR WINDS...WILL EXPECT TYPICAL ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE GUSTIEST WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE NORTHERLY PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY/TUESDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE
DISTRICT...AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
FORECAST-WISE...THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE RATHER
UNREMARKABLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS...THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG IMPACTING THE COASTS AND VALLEYS THROUGH
THE PERIOD (WITH THE TYPICAL DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN INLAND
EXTENT). AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...23/12Z.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE
IS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... TIMING...
AND EXTENT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT... AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FOR THE COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEYS... COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHED INLAND INTO MANY ADJACENT
VALLEYS. FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT THERE IS
A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z. THERE
IS AN EIGHTY PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON... THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS AFTER 03Z.
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS... A FIFTEEN
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 18Z-00Z... OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.KLAX... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST BUT THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF THE MARINE LAYER DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE KLAX AREA.
THOUGH THE CEILING MAY COME AND GO... THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF IT LINGERING IN THE AREA UNTIL 20Z... FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY... THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS
AFTER 12Z.
.KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE
IS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN THE KBUR
AREA THROUGH 17Z THOUGH THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER WHICH THERE IS
A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING 08Z-10Z.
&&
.MARINE...23/900 AM.
THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE INNER WATERS ALONG
THE SLO COAST SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A CATALINA EDDY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LATE EVENING EACH NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH WILL PERSIST.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
332 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION RATHER SPARSE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AREA OF MORE VIGOROUS TSRA WASN`T TOO FAR
AWAY OVER NRN NM. AIR MASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORMS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN
KPUX RADAR DATA MAY CONVERGE ACROSS PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTIES 21Z-
23Z...WHICH COULD FORCE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THE IDEA OF INCREASING
TSRA OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WANE BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WITH MODELS HINTING AT OVERNIGHT
MCS ACROSS NRN NM...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING DURING THE
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...AS SOME
SORT OF WEAKENING MCS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NERN NM/TX PANH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF
MCS...MUCH OF AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME
FAIRLY HEALTHY SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT TSRA CHANCES. STILL...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY COVERING
MOST OF THE AREA...TOUGH TO RULE OUT STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE MAY END UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW
COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW
ONCE AGAIN...AS DEEPER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WIND SHEAR REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OVER WRN TX. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED...WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE GFS...NAM AND EC MODELS ALL SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AZ IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES ON TUE. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE LOW MEANS THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS...AND WHERE AND WHEN THE DRY SLOT WILL
HAPPEN...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...BLANKETED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND WENT WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ALL TIMES. MODELS INDICATE THE
DRY SLOT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS...SO LESSENED SKY COVER
AND LOWERED POPS THERE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN BANDS AND EXACT AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT ARE IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 F FOR THE PLAINS EACH
DAY...THOUGH ONGOING MAX TEMP FOR TUE WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO BE
COOLED. AREA BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY EACH DAY
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND OUT OF COLORADO BY
TUE EVE...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS PAINTS A VERY WET PICTURE...WHILE
THE EC IS LEANING TOWARDS A MORE PROBABLE SOLUTION OF DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...AMENDED THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE POP GRIDS TO SHOW ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
POPS OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS EACH AFTN AND EVE...THEN DRY
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE FORECAST...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ALL 3 TAF SITES FROM 21Z UNTIL 02Z-
04Z...AND UPDATE TAFS AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE
SOME INCREASING TSRA ACTIVITY KCOS AND KPUB 22Z-23Z AS SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE IN THE GENERAL AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS BEEN
RATHER PATCHY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST AREAS
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1006 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS
TIME WHICH IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A
SECOND WAVE NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER SHOULD MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 70S HERE. CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. WILL WATCH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY NEED TO RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY.
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY...ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. CAPES
WILL GENERALLY BE 500-1000 J/KG. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S COULD SEE CAPES TO 1500 J/KG...PER THE RAP
MODEL. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TODAY BEING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE MOST OF THE CLEARING
CURRENTLY IS. THIS MAKES SENSE AND WILL TREND POPS THIS
DIRECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY REMAIN OVER THE SWRN US WITH MAINLY
SLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY OVER SERN CO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE
SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW TSTMS OVER THE FAR ERN
PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS AS THIS FEATURE
LIFTS NORTH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND IS MOVING NORTH AS WELL WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ENHANCE PCPN
CHANCES. MEANWHILE APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER TODAY WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH HEATING AN LIMIT
INSTABILITY. BEST CAPES ARE FCST IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS WITH
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO THIS WOULD BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVIER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AT THIS POINT THINGS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ALTHOUGH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES. HIGHS THIS
AFTN MAY HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 60S ACROSS NERN CO DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.
FOR TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABV MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO NEW
MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE
LESS AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE VALUES OF 750-1250 J/KG ARE BEING
PROJECTED. THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING
WINDS ARE LIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. A LITTLE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LESS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
STORM MOTION SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES MOVING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
THE STORMS PROGRESS EAST CONTINUES TO SLOW...SHOWN IN MODEL
TRENDS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FOR MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH DOWN ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
THE MOUNTAINS. AS MOUNTAIN TOP WIND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST...THIS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE PLAINS.
A WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. SOME MOISTURE LEFT UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD OUT ON TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WITH CEILINGS BELOW 4000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
WILL NOT BE STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER A FEW AREAS COULD
STILL RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW.
OVERALL HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT
SLIGHTLY. MONDAY SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT FOR NOW IT
SEEMS TO STAY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
NO MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TUESDAY ONWARD.
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE AVERAGE
MOISTURE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING LIKELY TO ABOVE NORMALS. THIS WILL
SPEED UP SNOWMELT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RPK/KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. TURNING MILDER
SUNDAY THEN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY. A
WEAK FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS IN E NY AND VT. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE SHOWERS
QUITE WELL AND SHOWS HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W ZONES
THIS EVENING AFTER 6 PM AS MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES. WHILE SFC
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...MID LEVEL
COOLING WILL INCREASE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DECENT
QG FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS W MA AND CT WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND PWATS LESS THAN 1" WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD MAY SEE SHOWERS MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NE INFLOW INCREASES N OF THE SFC LOW. GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF INDICATE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE S
COAST AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH IN THE INTERIOR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING E OF NEW ENG BUT COLD POOL
ALOFT REMAINS WITH 500 MB TEMPS -20 TO -21C. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS W ZONES WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN WEAK. ACROSS E NEW
ENG...JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
ENG. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE WEST IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- SEA-BREEZE SUNDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
- MEMORIAL DAY MIX WITH BEST CONDITIONS SW WITH DISMAL WEATHER NE
- COLD FRONT AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF WET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...
IS THIS LATE MAY OR EARLY MARCH? PERSISTENT LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
GREENLAND STRENGTHEN THE NORTH-ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS SUCH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BUCKLES. SUBSEQUENTLY TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG THE W-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH DISTURBANCES DIG SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUANCE OF COOLER WET WEATHER ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE NE-CONUS
AGAINST RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE MIGRATING LOW INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE START
OF SUMMER.
WITH THE NAO EXHIBITING A NEAR-NEUTRAL TREND WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND GREATER CONFIDENCE GAINED FROM BOTH GEFS/ECENS/NAEFS H5 MEANS OF
STRONGER REAR-TROUGHING INFLUENCE WITH A NW-SE STREAM OF THE W-
PERIPHERY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WILL PREVAIL WITH NEAR-SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES OF WET-WEATHER KEEPING THE WARMER-RIDGING
PATTERN TO THE W. MODEL CONSENSUS IS PREFERRED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THEREAFTER ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS ARE RECOMMENDED.
/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
COMBINATION OF A SEA-BREEZE FRONT PROVIDING FORCING BENEATH CYCLONIC
FLOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES...AND THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK...LOOKS TO GENERATE LIFT TOWARDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY INTO EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND /ESPECIALLY E/.
CHALLENGES IN FORECASTING EXACT OUTCOMES IS DIFFICULT AT MODELS
DIFFER ON INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. NOTING CONSISTENCY
OF NW-SE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT...
PWATS AROUND 0.75-INCHES...AND MINOR INSTABILITY...WET-WEATHER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. A HEAVY RAIN / SMALL HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ANY
TRAINING N TO S WITH THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO CONCLUDE OVERNIGHT WITH THE END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH A STRONGER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING TOWARDS NE
NEW ENGLAND INVOKING SW-FLOW...ANTICIPATE A DEFINING WARM-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NE OF THE REGION...PERHAPS DRAPED S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST W.
MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/...
WARM-FRONT SITUATES ACROSS NE NEW ENGLAND ALONG WHICH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE PROVIDES ENHANCED ASCENT TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WET-WEATHER. ITS EXTENT SW IS SPECULATIVE.
WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS NE AND MUCH OF OUR REGION BENEATH THE RFQ OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME FORECAST TIMEFRAME
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LEVEL OF SUBSIDENCE. NW-FLOW
COULD IMPINGE UPON HIGHER TERRAIN UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT BENEATH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL...WETTER/COOLER/CLOUDIER TO THE NE WHEREAS THE BEST WARM-
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE TO THE SW. EXPECT A NE-SW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 80-DEGREES OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY.
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW PRES CENTER INVIGORATED BY THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE BEGINS TO SWEEP SE INTO THE FORECAST REGION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WET-WEATHER CONDITIONS TOWARDS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS COOL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT THEN UNDERGO A NON-DIURNAL TREND
THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING SW-FLOW.
MIDWEEK TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES LENDING TO UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS EXACT OUTCOMES
AND THUS ONE CAN ONLY SPECULATE. NO ONE MODEL IS PREFERRED.
ITS LIKELY A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WET-WEATHER WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY. TIMING AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DIRECTION OF FLOW REARWARD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHETHER NW OR NE. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES ARE LIKELY TO DIG SOUTH...EXPECT
INTERMITTENT BOUTS OF WET-WEATHER.
OF GREATER CERTAINTY IS THE FACT THAT THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A
TROUGHING PATTERN THE W-PERIPHERY OF WHICH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN NEAR-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECTING
SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW TO KEEP COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DO NOT BELIEVE THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE A BAD FEELING THE TROUGH LINGERS FOR AWHILE LONGER RESULTING
IN PROLONGED COOL WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF VFR RI/SE MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR TOWARD
EVENING. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING IN W
NEW ENG 21-00Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
DEVELOPING BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT
OF FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND NOT DENSE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IN THE EVENING...MAINLY W.
NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARD 12Z.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING. AREAS OF IFR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR INTO SAT MORNING BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY IFR DEVELOPING. SCT SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SEA-BREEZE PUSHING E WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE E/C
INTERIOR AS W/SW WINDS CONVERGE WITH WINDS FROM THE E. TEMPO MVFR-
IFR WITH ACTIVITY. THINKING ISOLATED TSRA. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WILL HOLD SW TERMINALS IN VFR WHEREAS TO THE NE EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR
TO LOW-VFR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA. SW FLOW PREVAILS. WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THE TIMING AND IMPACTS OF
WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT WITH WET-WEATHER. N-WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THE DIRECTION
OF WHICH IS ALSO UNCERTAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF G25
KT TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT SO WE ISSUED AN SCA. IT IS POSSIBLE SCA MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO NEARSHORE S COASTAL WATERS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH STRONGER WINDS WILL REACH THAT FAR N. WINDS
DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS/SEAS SAT NIGHT AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERALL.
INCLEMENT WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5
FEET.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS /ESP ALONG THE SHORE/. SEAS ON
THE OUTER-WATERS UP TO 5 FEET. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E-WATERS
AROUND CAPE ANN.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS THE TIMING OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN. BREEZY SW WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD BACKING OUT OF THE N TO
THE REAR. WAVES ON THE OUTER WATERS ABOVE 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT. TURNING MILDER SUNDAY THEN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING***
2 PM UPDATE...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND W NEW ENG
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN E NY. THE HRRR IS HANDLING
THE SHOWERS QUITE WELL AND SHOWS HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
W ZONES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. SBCAPES CURRENTLY ONLY 100-200 J/KG WITH FORECAST
INDICATING UP TO 500 J/KG. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1" WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
1015 AM UPDATE...
ALL IS QUIET WITH A JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NE FROM S NH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE WEST ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
COOLING AND QG FORCING SO EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN
WESTERN NEW ENG WHERE BEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROF. HRRR IS TARGETING THE
WEST MOSTLY AFTER 20Z. WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SO SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MARINE LAYER/LESS
INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING THUNDER OR THE ACTIVITY TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...JUST
EXPECTED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE LESS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.
SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK AS
POTENT AS TODAY/S...SO NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD.
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 60S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- WEEKEND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- NICE AND MILD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
- ANOTHER SHOT OF WET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TREND AWAY
FROM EASTERN RIDGE BUILDING THAT...THE TREND FROM EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING
A POSITIVE NAO...ALTHOUGH STILL WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. GIVEN
THE RECENT SHIFT IN LONG TERM PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY WITH SEVERAL
SMALLER SCALE WAVES/RIDGING IN A COOLER/TROUGH DRIVEN PATTERN...A
BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS APPROPRIATE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
UNSTABLE...AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST WAY TO DEFINE THE LONG TERM. NOT NECESSARILY IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY SENSE /ALTHOUGH THAT WILL BE A PLAYER AS
WELL AT TIMES/...BUT IN THE SENSE THAT THERE IS A LOT OF DAY-TO-
DAY UNCERTAINTY GIVEN WE ARE DEALING WITH A WEAK LONGWAVE TROF AND
SEVERAL ENERGY WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. WITH LONGWAVE TROF IN
PLACE...THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE MAY
ACTUALLY STALL...SOUTHWEST OR AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WAS THE WARM FRONT/RIDGE THAT WAS ORIGINALLY
SUGGESTING AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD. HOWEVER...NOW GIVEN
THAT THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN W OF NEW ENGLAND...A NEAR TO POTENTIALLY
EVEN BELOW NORMAL PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC WET WX WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR SOME
MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THESE OVERALL TRENDS LOOK TO HOLD AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY SNOWBALLS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL INSTABILITY IS LOSS WITH SETTING SUN.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SO WILL ACTUALLY HOLD ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUN...STILL NOTE MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.0-7.0C/KM BUT LESS OF A MECHANISM FOR LIFT.
THEREFORE...STILL LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SPATIAL EXTENT IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN THAT OF
SATURDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ARE LIKELY GIVEN +10C AT H85 AND
MIXING SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE A RUN AT NORMAL VALUES.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR DRY WX THROUGH MID WEEK. MID LVL RIDGE WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF DIVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM NRN QC...FLATTENING IT AS IT APPROACHES.
THEREFORE...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE STILL EVIDENT IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE PERIOD /AFTER ANY SUN EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISH/
LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE MON.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THIS PATTERN WITH THIS OVERNIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...EVEN NEAR SHORE AS STRONG W
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE SEA BREEZE THREAT.
TUE AND WED...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS NOT JUST IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...BUT ENSEMBLES AS
WELL...BEGINNING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOW THE SUGGESTION
OF REINFORCEMENT OF THE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING THE
STRONG RIDGING W OF THE GREAT LAKES...EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT
IN SENSIBLE WX REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. GFS AND SOME MODELS
GENERATE STRONG LOW PRES WHICH MAY SLIDE S OF THE
REGION...DELIVERING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WX...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND OTHER ENSEMBLES LEAN MORE ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CULMINATING IN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ANY CASE...WITH PWAT
VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.0 INCHES...COOLING UPPER LVL TEMPS AND
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SOURCES FOR LIFT...ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY WET/UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SHORTWAVE PLAYERS AS THEY MIGRATE THROUGH CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO BETTER REFINE THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL
PRECIP.
LATE NEXT WEEK...
WITH CONUS RIDGING ATTEMPTING A SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD EXACT DETAILS WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE NE HOLDS IN. IN ANY CASE...A PERIOD OF
DRY WX MAY FOLLOW THE UNSETTLED MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME THANKS TO
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE EJECTION. WILL TREND TOWARD LOWER TO NIL
POPS...BUT EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROF REMAINS OR THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO
THE W MOVES THROUGH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF VFR RI/SE MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR TOWARD
EVENING. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING IN W
NEW ENG 21-00Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
DEVELOPING BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT
OF FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND NOT DENSE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IN THE EVENING...MAINLY W.
NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARD 12Z.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING. AREAS OF IFR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR INTO SAT MORNING BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY IFR DEVELOPING. SCT SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATING DURING THE DAY ON SUN
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE N-NE TO THE S EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CHANCES IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NON-ZERO. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MIX OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD
TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SINCE ITS A
MARGINAL LATE 2ND AND 3RD PERIOD EVENT...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE SCA
HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN ON THE WATERS IS FOR AREAS OF FOG WHICH COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM PREDOMINANTLY N-NE TO THE S-SW DURING THE DAY ON
SUN...BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. SEAS TOO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SUN MORNING IN FOG.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND STRENGTHEN ON MON...WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONGER WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOME RAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
THE W...TO THE N. ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AROUND 25 KT IS
LOW...SOME LINGERING SWELLS OF 5+ FT MAY MEAN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT. TURNING MILDER SUNDAY THEN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING***
1015 AM UPDATE...
ALL IS QUIET WITH A JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NE FROM S NH. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE WEST ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
COOLING AND QG FORCING SO EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN
WESTERN NEW ENG WHERE BEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROF. HRRR IS TARGETING THE
WEST MOSTLY AFTER 20Z. WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SO SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MARINE LAYER/LESS
INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING THUNDER OR THE ACTIVITY TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD.
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST OF MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...JUST
EXPECTED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE LESS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.
SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK AS
POTENT AS TODAY/S...SO NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD.
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 60S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- WEEKEND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- NICE AND MILD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
- ANOTHER SHOT OF WET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TREND AWAY
FROM EASTERN RIDGE BUILDING THAT...THE TREND FROM EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING
A POSITIVE NAO...ALTHOUGH STILL WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. GIVEN
THE RECENT SHIFT IN LONG TERM PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY WITH SEVERAL
SMALLER SCALE WAVES/RIDGING IN A COOLER/TROUGH DRIVEN PATTERN...A
BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS APPROPRIATE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
UNSTABLE...AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST WAY TO DEFINE THE LONG TERM. NOT NECESSARILY IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY SENSE /ALTHOUGH THAT WILL BE A PLAYER AS
WELL AT TIMES/...BUT IN THE SENSE THAT THERE IS A LOT OF DAY-TO-
DAY UNCERTAINTY GIVEN WE ARE DEALING WITH A WEAK LONGWAVE TROF AND
SEVERAL ENERGY WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. WITH LONGWAVE TROF IN
PLACE...THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE MAY
ACTUALLY STALL...SOUTHWEST OR AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WAS THE WARM FRONT/RIDGE THAT WAS ORIGINALLY
SUGGESTING AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD. HOWEVER...NOW GIVEN
THAT THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN W OF NEW ENGLAND...A NEAR TO POTENTIALLY
EVEN BELOW NORMAL PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC WET WX WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR SOME
MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THESE OVERALL TRENDS LOOK TO HOLD AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY SNOWBALLS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL INSTABILITY IS LOSS WITH SETTING SUN.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SO WILL ACTUALLY HOLD ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUN...STILL NOTE MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.0-7.0C/KM BUT LESS OF A MECHANISM FOR LIFT.
THEREFORE...STILL LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SPATIAL EXTENT IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN THAT OF
SATURDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ARE LIKELY GIVEN +10C AT H85 AND
MIXING SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE A RUN AT NORMAL VALUES.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR DRY WX THROUGH MID WEEK. MID LVL RIDGE WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF DIVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM NRN QC...FLATTENING IT AS IT APPROACHES.
THEREFORE...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE STILL EVIDENT IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE PERIOD /AFTER ANY SUN EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISH/
LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE MON.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THIS PATTERN WITH THIS OVERNIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...EVEN NEAR SHORE AS STRONG W
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE SEA BREEZE THREAT.
TUE AND WED...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS NOT JUST IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...BUT ENSEMBLES AS
WELL...BEGINNING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOW THE SUGGESTION
OF REINFORCEMENT OF THE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING THE
STRONG RIDGING W OF THE GREAT LAKES...EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT
IN SENSIBLE WX REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. GFS AND SOME MODELS
GENERATE STRONG LOW PRES WHICH MAY SLIDE S OF THE
REGION...DELIVERING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WX...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND OTHER ENSEMBLES LEAN MORE ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CULMINATING IN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ANY CASE...WITH PWAT
VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.0 INCHES...COOLING UPPER LVL TEMPS AND
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SOURCES FOR LIFT...ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY WET/UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SHORTWAVE PLAYERS AS THEY MIGRATE THROUGH CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO BETTER REFINE THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL
PRECIP.
LATE NEXT WEEK...
WITH CONUS RIDGING ATTEMPTING A SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD EXACT DETAILS WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE NE HOLDS IN. IN ANY CASE...A PERIOD OF
DRY WX MAY FOLLOW THE UNSETTLED MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME THANKS TO
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE EJECTION. WILL TREND TOWARD LOWER TO NIL
POPS...BUT EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROF REMAINS OR THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO
THE W MOVES THROUGH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...LOW CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY
FOG LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR SOME...BUT LONGER FOR
OTHERS. IFR SITES SHOULD LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND THEN EXPECT A COMPLEX MIX OF MVFR/VFR BEFORE THINGS
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO MVFR/IFR. WHILE THIS TREND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED...THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF A IJD-ORH-AFN LINE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE N EARLY SAT
MORNING...WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT CONDITIONS OUT OF MVFR/IFR AND TO
MORE VFR/MVFR INTO THE DAY ON SAT.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TRENDS IN TAF ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
KBDL TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF AND TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR TO EVEN VFR THRESHOLDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SAT NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH VFR
DOMINATING DURING THE DAY ON SUN OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE N-NE TO THE S EARLY IN THE DAY
ON SUN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CHANCES IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NON-ZERO. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MIX OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD
TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SINCE ITS A
MARGINAL LATE 2ND AND 3RD PERIOD EVENT...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE SCA
HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN ON THE WATERS IS FOR AREAS OF FOG WHICH COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM PREDOMINANTLY N-NE TO THE S-SW DURING THE DAY ON
SUN...BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. SEAS TOO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SUN MORNING IN FOG.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND STRENGTHEN ON MON...WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONGER WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOME RAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
THE W...TO THE N. ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AROUND 25 KT IS
LOW...SOME LINGERING SWELLS OF 5+ FT MAY MEAN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND IT SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC GIVEN THE INCREASING
CUMULUS FIELD. THE CU FIELD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA INDICATES THE
SEA BREEZE IS INCHING INLAND...NOW NEAR DANIEL ISLAND AND
APPROACHING NORTH CHARLESTON. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS QUITE WEAK IN THE VICINITY.
OUR MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL UPSTREAM AHEAD OF
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEVERAL SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
POPPED UP ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS HAS INCREASED DURING
THE LAST TWO HOURS...WITH SOME TOWERING CU EMBEDDED. RUC SOUNDING
AT KCHS SHOWS THE PRONOUNCED CAP AROUND 700 MB DISAPPEARING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM. MEANWHILE...THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO COASTAL SC. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...LIKELY
AFTER 5 PM AND FOCUSED AROUND 7 OR 8 PM. WE MADE LITTLE CHANCE TO
ONGOING POP FORECAST...SHOWING CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SEVERE WX PARAMETERS MAINTAIN STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD MID
LEVELS...SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH A SECONDARY
WIND THREAT. LATER TONIGHT THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE SURFACE AND OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW JUST ALOFT COULD STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A ROBUST SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONSIDERABLY COOLER. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPING
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORCING
PROVIDED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG AND
LI/S DOWN TO -7 TO -8C...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE-TYPE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD RE-FOCUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY...A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MEANWHILE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH INLAND AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME AND
LIKELY STALL OUT. EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
VCTS AT KCHS EARLY THIS EVENING B/C WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COVERAGE
STILL DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY GREAT SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AS OF YET. WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A NORTHEAST SURGE
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE NO GREATER THAN ABOUT 15-20 KT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE WATERS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CHS HAS HIT 97 DEGREES WHICH BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...
CHARLESTON 96/1956...DOWNTOWN 97/1956...SAVANNAH 99/2012
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...MTE
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT Fri May 23 2014
...Update to aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
The 23.12Z 250/500-hPa map showed a large mid to upper level disturbance
located cross western Arizona. 250-hPa 50 kt southwesterly flow continued
downstream of this feature across western Kansas. The KDDC raob was
fairly moist with a pwat of 1.13" - still between 75th percentile/+2SD.
At the sfc, KDDC WSR- 88D was indicating some showers/iso tstorms around
the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AS
FAR WEST AS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASILY WITH INCREASING LIFT. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECAYED, WE`VE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 12-14 UTC, BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY RAMPING UP
CHANCES TOWARD 18 UTC ONCE AGAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELEGATE
TEMPERATURES HOMOGENEOUSLY IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NOT AS HIGH AS ON THURSDAY AND SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL AS A RESULT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE MAXIMIZED AROUND 0 UTC. AS A RESULT OF THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS WITH FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND EJECTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE IT OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN DECREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
VFR conditions through TAF pd. Local upper end MVFR possible in
heavy/isolated tstorm activity...but this will be short/limited.
Variable winds becoming southerly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 62 81 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 72 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 73 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 74 60 79 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 76 63 79 62 / 70 70 40 60
P28 82 64 80 64 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
941 AM CDT Fri May 23 2014
...Update to synopsis...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
The 23.12Z 250/500-hPa map showed a large mid to upper level disturbance
located cross western Arizona. 250-hPa 50 kt southwesterly flow continued
downstream of this feature across western Kansas. The KDDC raob was
fairly moist with a pwat of 1.13" - still between 75th percentile/+2SD.
At the sfc, KDDC WSR- 88D was indicating some showers/iso tstorms around
the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AS
FAR WEST AS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASILY WITH INCREASING LIFT. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECAYED, WE`VE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 12-14 UTC, BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY RAMPING UP
CHANCES TOWARD 18 UTC ONCE AGAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELEGATE
TEMPERATURES HOMOGENEOUSLY IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NOT AS HIGH AS ON THURSDAY AND SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL AS A RESULT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE MAXIMIZED AROUND 0 UTC. AS A RESULT OF THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS WITH FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND EJECTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE IT OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN DECREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
VFR ceilings will continue through this morning. An area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle will spread north
across southwest and central Kansas late this morning and afternoon.
Some occasional MVFR ceilings could develop under the heavier
showers this afternoon. There is a small possibility that MVFR
ceilings and visibilities could develop at Dodge City and Hays but
confidence in this is pretty low at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 62 81 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 77 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 76 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 78 60 79 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 78 63 79 62 / 70 70 40 60
P28 80 64 80 64 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT Fri May 23 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AS
FAR WEST AS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASILY WITH INCREASING LIFT. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECAYED, WE`VE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 12-14 UTC, BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY RAMPING UP
CHANCES TOWARD 18 UTC ONCE AGAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELEGATE
TEMPERATURES HOMOGENEOUSLY IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NOT AS HIGH AS ON THURSDAY AND SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL AS A RESULT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE MAXIMIZED AROUND 0 UTC. AS A RESULT OF THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS WITH FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND EJECTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE IT OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN DECREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
VFR ceilings will continue through this morning. An area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle will spread north
across southwest and central Kansas late this morning and afternoon.
Some occasional MVFR ceilings could develop under the heavier
showers this afternoon. There is a small possibility that MVFR
ceilings and visibilities could develop at Dodge City and Hays but
confidence in this is pretty low at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 62 81 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 77 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 76 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 78 60 79 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 78 63 79 62 / 70 70 40 60
P28 80 64 80 64 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
421 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AS
FAR WEST AS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASILY WITH INCREASING LIFT. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECAYED, WE`VE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 12-14 UTC, BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY RAMPING UP
CHANCES TOWARD 18 UTC ONCE AGAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELEGATE
TEMPERATURES HOMOGENEOUSLY IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NOT AS HIGH AS ON THURSDAY AND SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL AS A RESULT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE MAXIMIZED AROUND 0 UTC. AS A RESULT OF THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS WITH FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND EJECTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND FLOW WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE IT OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN DECREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS WILL AFFECT THE AREAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
BY AROUND 12 UTC. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 62 81 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 77 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 76 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 78 60 79 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 78 63 79 62 / 70 70 40 60
P28 80 64 80 64 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT Fri May 23 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Isentropic lift will redevelop later this morning in a moist
atmosphere with precipitable water values in excess of 1 inch as
far west as eastern Colorado. This should allow shower and
thunderstorms to develop easily with increasing lift. As the
thunderstorms have decayed, we`ve followed the HRRR trends for
convection through around 12-14 UTC, before significantly ramping up
chances toward 18 UTC once again. Extensive clouds and occasional
precipitation especially by this afternoon will relegate
temperatures homogeneously in the 70s across most of the forecast
area. Cape values will be not as high as on Thursday and severe
threat is minimal as a result. Showers and thunders toms should
persist into the evening hours and forecast precipitation chances
were maximized around 0 UTC. As a result of the relatively humid
conditions, lows tonight will likely not fall below 60 degrees in
most area with fog becoming possible toward early morning
Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
The medium range models continue to show an upper level low pressure
system moving slowly from the Desert Southwest on Saturday into the
central and southern High Plains by Memorial Day. As the upper low
approaches the region, low level southerly flow will continue to
pump Gulf moisture into the central High Plains. Weak disturbances
rotating around the upper low and ejecting out over the central
Plains will bring thunderstorm chances to western and central Kansas
pretty much every day through Tuesday. Wind flow will not be overly
strong over western Kansas the next few days but model soundings
show some directional shear and there should be enough instability
for at least a small threat of severe weather on Saturday afternoon
and evening.
The models begin to diverge a little on how quickly the upper low
continues east out of the High Plains toward the middle part of the
week but continue to move it out with an upper level ridge building
over the High Plains. This will ultimately result in decreasing
chances for thunderstorms along with a warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Remnants of a decaying MCS will affect the areal terminals early
this morning. Most of the stratiform precipitation should diminish
by around 12 UTC. By mid to late morning, increasing isentropic lift
should developing associated with an approaching wave, bringing
additional high chances for rain an thunderstorms to the area
terminals through the day and this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 62 81 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 77 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 76 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 78 60 79 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 78 63 79 62 / 70 70 40 60
P28 80 64 80 64 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT Fri May 23 2014
...SHORT TERM UPDATED...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A decaying MCS was still producing light to moderate rainfall from
Liberal to Garden city, Scott City and Syracuse as of 2 am. Strong
westerly surface outflow was weakening with time as well, as winds
near the Colorado line had readjusted to light and variable under
the leftover mesohigh. METAR totals and Dual-Pol storm total
accumulations indicated highest rainfall amount mainly from the
previous evening`s trailing stratiform ranged between 1 an under 2
inches southwest of a Liberal to Coolidge line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Isentropic lift will redevelop later this morning in a moist
atmosphere with precipitable water values in excess of 1 inch as
far west as eastern Colorado. This should allow shower and
thunderstorms to develop easily with increasing lift. As the
thunderstorms have decayed, we`ve followed the HRRR trends for
convection through around 12-14 UTC, before significantly ramping up
chances toward 18 UTC once again. Extensive clouds and ocassional
precipitation especially by this afternoon will relegate
temperatures homogeneously in the 70s across most of the forecast
area. Cape values will be not as high as on Thursday and severe
threat is minimal as a result. Showers and thunderstoms should
persist into the evening hours and forecast precipitation chances
were maximized around 0 UTC. As a result of the relatively humid
conditions, lows tonight will likley not fall below 60 degrees in
most area with fog becoming possible toward early morning
Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
Medium range models indicate a southwest flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains Saturday as a closed off upper level
low shifts slowly eastward across the Four Corners Region. As the
system approaches, increased divergence aloft downstream of the
trough axis will intensify across the high plains of eastern
Colorado, western Kansas, and the panhandle of Oklahoma, especially
into Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a prevailing low level
south-southeasterly flow will continue to draw additional moisture
into the state with H85 dewpoints nearing 15C. Although the flow
aloft is expected to remain generally weak, GFS/ECMWF model
soundings do show some marginal directional shear along with SBCAPE
values in excess of 1500 J/KG. As H5 vort maxima cycle northeast out
of the trough axis into the high plains, shower and thunderstorm
development is likely with some chance for marginally severe
weather possible. However, a bigger concern may be the potential
for brief periods of heavy rainfall with model soundings also
showing PW values well over one inch.
Similar conditions will exist Sunday as the closed off upper level
low moves across the Rockies into the Western High Plains. However,
a few more thunderstorms may be possible as an upper level jet noses
northward into southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon while a developing
dryline sharpens near the Colorado border. In addition, GFS/ECMWF
model soundings indicate an inverted V profile by Sunday afternoon
with SBCAPE values pushing above 2000 J/KG. Although speed shear
looks a little more favorable than Saturday, directional shear
does not which may limit the strength of any developing storms.
However, the potential for significant rainfall lingers with PW
values remaining fairly high with values near to a little above
one inch. Shower and thunderstorm potential shifts eastward more
into central Kansas Monday as the closed off low pushes further
east into western Kansas. Drier conditions are likely by Wednesday
as weak upper level ridging fills in across the Western High
Plains in wake of the departing upper level low.
Fairly mild temperatures are likely Saturday as a cooler air mass
remains locked in across the Western High Plains The GFS/ECMWF show
H85 temperatures changing little from Friday with the mid teens(C)
across central Kansas to the upper teens(C) out near the Colorado
border. Due to expected increased cloud cover and areas of precip,
look for highs up into the upper 70s(F) to near 80F. Similar
temperatures are likely into Monday before a gradual warming
trend begins by mid week as weak upper level ridging develops
across the Intermountain West.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Remnants of a decaying MCS will affect the areal terminals early
this morning. Most of the stratiform precipitation should diminish
by around 12 UTC. By mid to late morning, increasing isentropic lift
should developing associated with an approaching wave, bringing
additional high chances for rain an thunderstorms to the area
terminals through the day and this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 62 81 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 77 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 76 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 78 60 79 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 78 63 79 62 / 70 70 40 60
P28 80 64 80 64 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CDT Fri May 23 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
Tonight:
Main concern is dealing with orographic convection to the west. Afternoon
radar mosaic shows considerable thunderstorm activity across Colorado
and New Mexico. MCS propagation vectors support the eastward translation
of this activity and will eventually reach far SW Kansas by evening.
The HRRR is insistent in generating an MCS with a cold pool. This model
does seem to be - at times- too aggressive with cold pool generation.
Still, enough isentropic lift and moisture advection supports ramping
up the pops this evening. Think the main concern is heavy rainfall as
the 12Z KDDC raob PWAT is between the 75th percentile and the +2SD mark.
This is statistically significant. Bulk shear is far from reaching supercell
archetype. Secondary threat to heavy rainfall is outflow winds, which
could impact far western Kansas along and west of Highway 83. The boundary
layer will become more stable this evening, so that could mitigate any
momentum transfer issues. In addition to convection, have increased
QPF more in line with WPC guidance. Most of the mesoscale models (HRRR/WRF/4
km NAM) all suggest that a good chunk of the region might see 0.50-1.00"
from tonights and tomorrow thunderstorm activity.
Tomorrow:
Have ramped up pops again by afternoon and evening as PWAT remains near
an 1.00" and isentropic lift/warm air advection continues through the
day. Moist adiabatic thermodynamic skew-t/log-p`s and also slow MCS
propagation vectors suggest that heavy rainfall is still a threat for
tomorrow. Highest pops will be during the afternoon to 00Z as diurnally
induced instability increases. Again, would not be surprised to see
decent rainfall amounts through 7 pm tomorrow night, as alluded to
above.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
Medium range models indicate a southwest flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains Saturday as a closed off upper level
low shifts slowly eastward across the Four Corners Region. As the
system approaches, increased divergence aloft downstream of the
trough axis will intensify across the high plains of eastern
Colorado, western Kansas, and the panhandle of Oklahoma, especially
into Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a prevailing low level
south-southeasterly flow will continue to draw additional moisture
into the state with H85 dewpoints nearing 15C. Although the flow
aloft is expected to remain generally weak, GFS/ECMWF model
soundings do show some marginal directional shear along with SBCAPE
values in excess of 1500 J/KG. As H5 vort maxima cycle northeast out
of the trough axis into the high plains, shower and thunderstorm
development is likely with some chance for marginally severe
weather possible. However, a bigger concern may be the potential
for brief periods of heavy rainfall with model soundings also
showing PW values well over one inch.
Similar conditions will exist Sunday as the closed off upper level
low moves across the Rockies into the Western High Plains. However,
a few more thunderstorms may be possible as an upper level jet noses
northward into southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon while a developing
dryline sharpens near the Colorado border. In addition, GFS/ECMWF
model soundings indicate an inverted V profile by Sunday afternoon
with SBCAPE values pushing above 2000 J/KG. Although speed shear
looks a little more favorable than Saturday, directional shear
does not which may limit the strength of any developing storms.
However, the potential for significant rainfall lingers with PW
values remaining fairly high with values near to a little above
one inch. Shower and thunderstorm potential shifts eastward more
into central Kansas Monday as the closed off low pushes further
east into western Kansas. Drier conditions are likely by Wednesday
as weak upper level ridging fills in across the Western High
Plains in wake of the departing upper level low.
Fairly mild temperatures are likely Saturday as a cooler air mass
remains locked in across the Western High Plains The GFS/ECMWF show
H85 temperatures changing little from Friday with the mid teens(C)
across central Kansas to the upper teens(C) out near the Colorado
border. Due to expected increased cloud cover and areas of precip,
look for highs up into the upper 70s(F) to near 80F. Similar
temperatures are likely into Monday before a gradual warming
trend begins by mid week as weak upper level ridging develops
across the Intermountain West.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
Remnants of a decaying MCS will affect the areal terminals early
this morning. Most of the stratiform precipitation should diminish
by around 12 UTC. By mid to late morning, increasing isentropic lift
should developing associated with an approaching wave, bringing
additional high chances for rain an thunderstorms to the area
terminals through the day and this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 62 80 61 / 70 70 60 60
GCK 77 60 81 60 / 70 70 60 60
EHA 76 57 80 57 / 60 60 60 60
LBL 78 60 81 59 / 70 70 60 70
HYS 78 63 80 62 / 70 70 50 60
P28 80 64 82 64 / 70 70 60 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
OVERALL...INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST FOR THE DAY. THE 21Z HRRR SHOWS AN AREA OF
STORMS THAT EXPANDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ACCORDING TO
THE MODEL...THIS CAUSES OUTFLOW TO MOVE EAST AND PRODUCES
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z.
GIVEN THERE ARE SO MANY BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND AND THAT WE ARE
IN A WEAK FLOW SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUCH SOLUTION IS VERY
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT
FORECAST.
COOK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
PERSISTENT CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WENT UPSCALE
ALONG THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. INTERSECTION OF STORM ON MESOSCALE OUTFLOW AND THE
SYNOPTIC STATIONARY FRONT APPARENTLY PRODUCED BRIEF ROPE TORNADO
EAST OF ROSALIA NEAR GREENWOOD/BUTLER COUNTY LINE. SPC MESO
DATA SHOWED MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE
AIDING INITIAL UPDRAFTS. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
RESIDUAL WEAK MESO VORT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER STORMS
IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE IT A BIT DIFFICULT TO PORTEND WHERE CONVECTION
MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WILL SHOW A GENERAL
UP-TWEAK WITH MODEST POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL SHOW RELATIVELY
HIGHER POPS IN THESE TIME PERIODS. OTHERWISE...WITH LITTLE OR
NO CAPPING THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH DURING SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON., HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
AGAIN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HOT AS RECENT DAYS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANT CLOSED
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THIS A BIT LONGER WHICH WOULD LINGER
PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FOR NOW
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS CONFINED ITSELF AROUND KICT SINCE ABOUT 0430Z.
THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH 08Z AS A BEST ESTIMATE. AS HAS BEEN
STATED BEFORE...THESE SO CALLED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY
UNPREDICTABLE AT BEST.
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TIMING LOOKS BEST DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...FROM AROUND 19Z ON THE 23RD THROUGH ABOUT 04Z
ON THE 24TH. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 82 65 81 / 40 50 60 50
HUTCHINSON 64 80 64 81 / 50 50 60 50
NEWTON 64 80 64 80 / 40 50 60 60
ELDORADO 64 80 64 80 / 40 50 60 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 83 65 82 / 40 50 50 50
RUSSELL 62 78 62 81 / 40 40 60 50
GREAT BEND 63 78 63 80 / 50 40 60 50
SALINA 63 80 64 81 / 40 40 60 50
MCPHERSON 64 80 64 80 / 40 50 60 50
COFFEYVILLE 67 83 66 83 / 60 40 40 50
CHANUTE 65 81 65 81 / 50 40 40 50
IOLA 64 80 65 80 / 50 40 40 60
PARSONS-KPPF 66 83 65 82 / 70 40 40 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1046 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177. LATEST HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS. FOR THIS REASON LOWERED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN
THE EASTERN FA FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CLOSED UPPER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US.
SOUTHERLY/DIFLUENT FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ROCKIES WITH MOIST PLUME EXTENDING FROM PACIFIC NORTH WITHIN THIS
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
AND ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANG WITH A NORTHERLY PROGRESSION.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) WILL LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW.
FOR TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO LARGE
SCALE DIFLUENT FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND CENTRAL COLORADO. TD VALUES
AROUND 60F HAS LEAD TO SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCAPE
THROUGH FRIDAY AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER OUR CWA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM FROM OUR CWA MERGING INTO
CLUSTER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND SPREADING NORTH INTO OUR CWA. WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE GENERALLY LINGERING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
MOISTURE POOLING/INSTABILITY LINGERING WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD PATTERN
FOR THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE. 0-6KM WIND IS 15KT OR
LESS...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES BELOW 800MB ARE VERY WEAK ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE OUT OF THE EAST...WHILE 400-250MB WINDS ARE STRAIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY WET SIGNAL THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
BACK BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND VERY SLOW
PROPAGATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT TONIGHT...BUT I AM NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS WILL BE SO I AM HOLDING OFF ON ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY/GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR STRONG WIND/LARGE
HAIL WITH PULSE TYPE CONVECTION CANT BE RULED OUT.
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD 850MB SUPPORT LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ENHANCEMENT IN ACTIVITY AS SURFACE FRONT STALLS
ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE. I WAS COMFORTABLE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THOUGH I DID TRY TO TIME OUT THE
PERIODS BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR POSSIBLE LULLS IN COVERAGE. I
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF TO REFLECT PERIODS OF MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIP
POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE PATTERN COULD BE CHAOTIC IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING...AND DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
MENTION WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE TRICKY AS
MODELS WOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THESE PERIODS...AND FRONTAL POSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS HOW LONG WILL UPCOMING WET PERIOD LAST AND
HOW MUCH WE WILL GET DURING THIS TIME WHICH LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. FOR OUR AREA SITUATION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY SPEED AND LOCATION OF UPPER LOW NOW CUTTING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH STRONGER JET WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS TO ITS SOUTH SHOWING SLOW
MOVEMENT AND A FURTHER SOUTH MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE. STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SOUTHERN
POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS APPEARED TO DO FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER
LOW. HERE AND OVERALL THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND CANADIAN. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUATION OF WHAT IS STARTING DURING THE DAY.
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. IF NO
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
OF AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF TIME PERIOD
WHERE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OCCURRING. AREAS OF FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF HAVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES IN FROM
THE SOUTH AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE
TRYING TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS WITH THIS FLOW IN PLACE AND AM NOT
BUYING THIS RIGHT NOW. SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE ON POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IS SHOWN BY
THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH AFFECTS MANY THINGS BUT
UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
AREA IS STILL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL ALSO
CONTINUING TO BRING IN MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THIS
WHILE A UPPER JET AXIS ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE SHOWING THE AIR MASS DRYING AND AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THAT. THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL HANDLING OF UPPER LOW BY
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A GENERAL TENDENCY OF SLOWING THE LOW OR KEEPING IT NEARLY
STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER AGREEMENT IN
HAVING THE CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
BE IN WRAP AROUND/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. ALL THESE DIFFERENCES
NOT SURPRISING WITH THIS SINCE MODELS USUALLY DO HAVE A PROBLEM WITH
THESE KIND OF SYSTEMS AND THIS IS RATHER UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN MONDAY NIGHT. AM CONCERNED THAT THIS PERIOD
COULD END UP BEING WETTER...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AM
CONTENT RIGHT NOW IN LEAVING THIS AS IS SINCE THERE ARE HIGH CHANCE
POPS IN THERE. WITH THAT MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE COOLER
AND OVERALL MAY NOT BE THE MOST PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY. BY THE TIME
MONDAY ENDS...A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION SINCE TODAY
COULD HAVE OCCURRED AND MAY BE EXPERIENCING HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING THE SYSTEM NOT TOO FAR TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS DAY COULD DEFINITELY
BE COOLER AND WETTER AS WELL BUT EVERYONE IS CONTENT IN LEAVING AS IS
AND DO NOT BLAME THEM WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE IS SOME
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PROBABLY THE MOST UNCERTAIN TIME PERIOD IS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE THE SYSTEM ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS HAS MORE RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF EVEN STARTS TO RETROGRADE
THE SYSTEM A LITTLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE AIR MASS STILL LOOKS
MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. CRH_INIT
DOES HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THERE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT WET BUT THIS IS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND
THESE POPS ACTUALLY FIT CLIMATOLOGY. SO NOT ONLY DID I NOT CHANGE
ANY OF THE POPS BUT OVERALL CHANGED NOTHING ELSE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT KGLD OVERNIGHT WITH
ONLY A CHANCE AT KMCK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATUS AND FOG
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY
BUT EXPECT THEM TO IMPACT BOTH SITES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CDT Thu May 22 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
A broad closed upper low was located across southern CA this
afternoon. A minor H5 shortwave trough was lifting northeast across
south central KS and was providing enough ascent for an area of
showers and thunderstorms across east central and central KS.
At the surface an outflow boundary extended from near Fort Scott,
KS, then extended west-northwest to near Cassoday before extending
southwest, east of ICT into northwest OK. The 19Z SPC mesoscale
EMC RUC showed 1500 ML CAPE along and south of the OFB across south
central and southeast KS. The instability decreases across east
central and northeast KS, with MLCAPES less than 500 J/KG along and
north of I-70. The greatest chance for stronger storms this
afternoon and early evening will be along and south of I-35, where
the stronger thunderstorms may produce pea to penny size hail and
wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH. Across the remainder of east central KS
the greatest hazard will be brief heavy rainfall.
Tonight, once the minor H5 trough lifts northeast into northern MO,
the thunderstorms will push east of the CWA. Thunderstorms
developing across eastern CO late this afternoon will congeal into
one or two complexes of thunderstorms and track east and southeast
across western KS during the evening hours and may move into north
central KS after midnight, then across portions of east central KS
through the early morning hours of Friday. At this time the best
rain chances late tonight will be along and south of a Concordia, to
Manhattan, to Ottawa line, but this will be more of mesoscale
forecast and will depend on where the thunderstorms complexes
develop and how they will track during the evening hours. The
primary hazards from the thunderstorms later tonight will be pea to
penny size hail with locally heavy rainfall.
Friday...after the morning complex of thunderstorms weakens and
shifts east of the CWA, additional thunderstorms will redevelop
along the leftover outflow boundaries during the afternoon hours.
The effective shear looks to be rather weak, so any thunderstorms
that develop across northeast KS Tuesday afternoon should be pulse
storms with the primary hazard being small hail, gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall. The best chances for thunderstorms Friday
afternoon will occur across the western and southern counties,
closer to the surface outflow boundary/front. Highs on Friday will
be in the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
The extended forecast will be noted with several chances for showers
and thunderstorms as a very slow-moving system moves through the
region.
By Friday night, models are in very good agreement in having a
closed-off low anchored over the southwestern U.S. and slowly
progress east-northeastward toward the region through the weekend.
As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will prevail with ample
moisture surging into the area. There looks to be a decent chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday evening as models
suggest a shortwave developing along the lee side of the mid-level
trough and tracking into the area. While models suggest MUCAPE
values could be upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear values
continue to look extremely low at less than 20kts. As a result, the
probability of severe weather still looks to be very low, however
cannot completely rule out the slight chance for small hail or some
stronger winds from any stronger storms that develop. The main
concern with this activity will be for heavy rainfall as soundings
show a very deep moist adiabatic profile with PWAT values upwards of
1.50 to 1.75 inches. If these rounds of showers and thunderstorms
end up tracking over the same areas, then we could see some
localized flash flooding.
By the latter part of the weekend into next week, the models
certainly begin to struggle in handling the details of this
approaching system. With that in mind, some models are suggesting
that the region may be between shortwaves Sunday and Sunday night,
so precipitation chances are lower during this period with any
activity likely being more scattered in nature. On Monday, the
mid-level low should be progressing towards western Kansas and the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. There looks to be a decent chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Monday as another shortwave tracks near
the area. Beyond Monday, as previously mentioned, the models
struggle with the tracking and timing of any additional shortwaves
as the mid-level low finally tracks over or just south of the area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Additionally, there are very
notable differences in the tracking of the center of this low, as
the ECMWF keeps it just south of the forecast area with the GFS
having it dive much further south. Due to the large model
uncertainty, made only minor adjustments to the consensus forecast
with slight to low-end chance PoPs in place Monday night through
Wednesday night. The potential for severe storms next week continues
to be low.
Between the prolonged period of cloud cover and not much in the way
of temperature advection, expect temperatures to remain fairly
steady through the period with highs generally in the mid 70s to low
80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
Isolated showers with occasional thunder are beginning to
develop near the taf site. Expect this to continue for the next
few hours. Not confident how long the showers will last until the
early to mid morning hours. Do expect that the activity will fully
dissipate mid to late morning, although additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible late in the taf period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL HAVE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. GIVEN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
KEPT THE AREA DRIER...OPTING TO HOLD OFF TEMPORARILY ON ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF THE NEXT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WE MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...NO REAL
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO FRESHEN UP HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A BIT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA...BUT THESE
CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE WARMING...SO WE MAY SEE A DECLINE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE GOING MORE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR
OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE QUITE
COMFORTABLE RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS TAKES PLACE...AS THE BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES...ANCHORED BY
LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
RIDGE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL THE ENERGY AT BAY FOR
KENTUCKY...THOUGH...SUCH THAT SOME WORKS INTO OUR CWA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE GONE WITH WX DETAILS FROM
THE NAM12 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL FOG FORMATION. A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TIME DIURNAL
CURVES FOR THIS IN THE VALLEYS. THE FRONT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY AND A SMALL INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE THE
COOLING IN THE VALLEYS.
PRIMARILY USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
THEN LOADED TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE
WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGHER VALUES AT SME FROM THE MAV WERE
DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE DRIER MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START OUT JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
RIDGING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS...WITH REINFORCING BOUTS OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS WILL
EVOLVE CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MURKY BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GIVEN POPS SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG
FORCING SIGNALS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...EXPECT INCREASED HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...ADDING A LITTLE BIT MORE FORCING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
SATURDAY DRY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE RIVER BEDS...BUT
WILL NOT IMPACT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A BIT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA...BUT THESE
CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE WARMING...SO WE MAY SEE A DECLINE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE GOING MORE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR
OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE QUITE
COMFORTABLE RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS TAKES PLACE...AS THE BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES...ANCHORED BY
LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
RIDGE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL THE ENERGY AT BAY FOR
KENTUCKY...THOUGH...SUCH THAT SOME WORKS INTO OUR CWA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE GONE WITH WX DETAILS FROM
THE NAM12 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL FOG FORMATION. A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TIME DIURNAL
CURVES FOR THIS IN THE VALLEYS. THE FRONT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY AND A SMALL INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE THE
COOLING IN THE VALLEYS.
PRIMARILY USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
THEN LOADED TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE
WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGHER VALUES AT SME FROM THE MAV WERE
DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE DRIER MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START OUT JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
RIDGING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS...WITH REINFORCING BOUTS OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS WILL
EVOLVE CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MURKY BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GIVEN POPS SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG
FORCING SIGNALS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...EXPECT INCREASED HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...ADDING A LITTLE BIT MORE FORCING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
SATURDAY DRY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE RIVER BEDS...BUT
WILL NOT IMPACT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY BRINGING ITS DRIER AIR MASS AND COOLER TEMPS. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. JUST ALONG THE BORDER WITH
TENNESSEE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
HUMID...AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SOUTH PARTS OF THE STATE.
DIFFERENCES BROUGHT BY THIS FRONT TO EAST KENTUCKY INCLUDE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S WHILE TO THE FAR SOUTH READINGS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 60. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH...ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH STRUCTURE THROUGH THE AREA. A
RELATIVELY SHARP TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGING EASES INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE TRACK OF ANY MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA KEEPING THE FLOW PATTERN
RATHER SMOOTH OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON ACCOUNT OF
THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COOLER NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH THE FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO TONIGHT/S WILL BE HAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT BY SUNDAY MORNING THAN WE ANTICIPATE FOR TONIGHT.
AFTER AN EXTRA DAY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT...THE PATCHY FOG
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE DEEPEST VALLEYS JUST AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
FILLING THE GAP TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
A BIT MORE EXTENSIVELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN
LINE WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HOLDING IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM YESTERDAY TO
TODAY. AT 12Z SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINING STEADY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE MID TERM. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH SEVERAL CLOSED WAVES
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THESE
TWO TROUGHS IN PLACE...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DRIVING FORCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE 300MB JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...PLAYING INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGHING DURING THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...WEAK FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN RIDGING...WILL MEAN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR KY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FLOW AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY THAT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED /MONDAY/ TO LOW END SCATTERED
/TUESDAY/ SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIP ON
TUESDAY AND NOT MONDAY. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...AND SCATTERED
NATURE OF THIS SET UP...DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND FOR
POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...A SURFACE LOW WILL MAKES ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. IN DOING SO...IT WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KY IN THE FORM OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING FROM NE TO SE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. NEITHER ONE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THIS FAR OUT...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FRONT...THOUGH
WEEK...TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO KY AS WELL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
COULD POSSIBLY PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POINTS AFTER. UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT DOES
NOT WARRANT ANY MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS...SO EXPECT BEST CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
STILL SOME SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER
AIR SINKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. HAVE REFINED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE AND ALSO FINE
TUNED THE SKY COVER ALONG WITH THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AS A NOW MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY EARLIER
IN THE MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE DRIED UP. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE FRONT TO
CLEAR THE REST OF EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON REMOVING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ALLOWING THE DRIER AIR TO WORK DEEPER INTO THE CWA.
CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES...
MEANWHILE ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH LIGHT WINDS SOUTH OF
IT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS AND FINE TUNE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...OBS...AND
TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH DISSEMINATION OF THE FRESHENED ZONES AND HWO...CLEANING UP THE
MORNING THUNDER CHANCES AND FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HANDLE AT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE ARE TWO THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE IS AREAS
OF DENSE VALLEY FOG AROUND THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. THE NEXT IS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
TRYING TO MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ALSO SOME STRONGER ECHOES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. OTHER THAN THE HRRR...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DYING AS THEY TRY TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HRRR...SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
WITH A CLUE RIGHT NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LYING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND KY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWING
SOUTH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND THEN NUDGED IT TOWARD THE GFS
MOS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
OVERALL SLOWED PATTERN AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EAST COAST. A
MASSIVE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE JET STREAM
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NUMEROUS WAVES
TRACKING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BY MID WEEK...THE
PATTERN COMPLETELY STALLS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES REMAINING. THE
PROMISING DETAIL HERE IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO AGREE ON
THIS...ONLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THIS BEING A BLOCKING
PATTERN...THE MODELS MAY NOT HANDLE THE SET UP VERY WELL.
WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING SOUTH...THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME DIURNAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO IT. AS WELL...DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THIS
PATTERN...DID NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
AREA. WITH THAT SAID...PLENTY OF WARMTH IN THIS PATTERN...DAYTIME
MAX HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AS A NOW MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY EARLIER
IN THE MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE DRIED UP. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE FRONT TO
CLEAR THE REST OF EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON REMOVING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ALLOWING THE DRIER AIR TO WORK DEEPER INTO THE CWA.
CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES...
MEANWHILE ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH LIGHT WINDS SOUTH OF
IT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS AND FINE TUNE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...OBS...AND
TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH DISSEMINATION OF THE FRESHENED ZONES AND HWO...CLEANING UP THE
MORNING THUNDER CHANCES AND FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HANDLE AT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE ARE TWO THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE IS AREAS
OF DENSE VALLEY FOG AROUND THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. THE NEXT IS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
TRYING TO MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ALSO SOME STRONGER ECHOES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. OTHER THAN THE HRRR...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DYING AS THEY TRY TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HRRR...SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
WITH A CLUE RIGHT NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LYING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND KY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWING
SOUTH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND THEN NUDGED IT TOWARD THE GFS
MOS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
OVERALL SLOWED PATTERN AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EAST COAST. A
MASSIVE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE JET STREAM
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NUMEROUS WAVES
TRACKING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BY MID WEEK...THE
PATTERN COMPLETELY STALLS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES REMAINING. THE
PROMISING DETAIL HERE IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO AGREE ON
THIS...ONLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THIS BEING A BLOCKING
PATTERN...THE MODELS MAY NOT HANDLE THE SET UP VERY WELL.
WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING SOUTH...THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME DIURNAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO IT. AS WELL...DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THIS
PATTERN...DID NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
AREA. WITH THAT SAID...PLENTY OF WARMTH IN THIS PATTERN...DAYTIME
MAX HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY TODAY ONCE THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF
BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN THE
VALLEYS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
743 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HANDLE AT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING IN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE ARE TWO THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE IS AREAS
OF DENSE VALLEY FOG AROUND THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. THE NEXT IS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
TRYING TO MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ALSO SOME STRONGER ECHOES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. OTHER THAN THE HRRR...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DYING AS THEY TRY TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HRRR...SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
WITH A CLUE RIGHT NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LYING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND KY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWING
SOUTH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND THEN NUDGED IT TOWARD THE GFS
MOS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
OVERALL SLOWED PATTERN AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EAST COAST. A
MASSIVE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE JET STREAM
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NUMEROUS WAVES
TRACKING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BY MID WEEK...THE
PATTERN COMPLETELY STALLS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES REMAINING. THE
PROMISING DETAIL HERE IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO AGREE ON
THIS...ONLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THIS BEING A BLOCKING
PATTERN...THE MODELS MAY NOT HANDLE THE SET UP VERY WELL.
WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING SOUTH...THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME DIURNAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO IT. AS WELL...DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THIS
PATTERN...DID NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
AREA. WITH THAT SAID...PLENTY OF WARMTH IN THIS PATTERN...DAYTIME
MAX HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
EXPECT VFR ALL DAY TODAY ONCE THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 8 AND
9 AM THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE
IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VALLEYS TO PRODUCE VALLY
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE ARE TWO THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE IS AREAS
OF DENSE VALLEY FOG AROUND THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. THE NEXT IS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
TRYING TO MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ALSO SOME STRONGER ECHOES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. OTHER THAN THE HRRR...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DYING AS THEY TRY TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HRRR...SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
WITH A CLUE RIGHT NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LYING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND KY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWING
SOUTH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND THEN NUDGED IT TOWARD THE GFS
MOS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
OVERALL SLOWED PATTERN AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EAST COAST. A
MASSIVE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE JET STREAM
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NUMEROUS WAVES
TRACKING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BY MID WEEK...THE
PATTERN COMPLETELY STALLS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES REMAINING. THE
PROMISING DETAIL HERE IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO AGREE ON
THIS...ONLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THIS BEING A BLOCKING
PATTERN...THE MODELS MAY NOT HANDLE THE SET UP VERY WELL.
WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING SOUTH...THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME DIURNAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO IT. AS WELL...DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THIS
PATTERN...DID NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
AREA. WITH THAT SAID...PLENTY OF WARMTH IN THIS PATTERN...DAYTIME
MAX HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VALLEYS TO PRODUCE FOG.
THE FOG SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY MAY BE DENSE PRODUCING
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ON QUARTER MILE IN PLACES. SME AND LOZ WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME IFR FOG THIS MORNING THAT WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN
13-14Z. JKL AND SJS MAY SEE SOME FOG DRIFTING UP FROM THE VALLEYS AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT...HOWEVER JUST EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT
THOSE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE GREAT...WITH VFR ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
259 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE ARE TWO THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE IS AREAS
OF DENSE VALLEY FOG AROUND THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. THE NEXT IS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
TRYING TO MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ALSO SOME STRONGER ECHOES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. OTHER THAN THE HRRR...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DYING AS THEY TRY TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. WILL BE GOING WITH THE HRRR...SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
WITH A CLUE RIGHT NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LYING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND KY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWING
SOUTH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE
CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND THEN NUDGED IT TOWARD THE GFS
MOS FOR THE HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VALLEYS TO PRODUCE FOG.
THE FOG SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY MAY BE DENSE PRODUCING
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ON QUARTER MILE IN PLACES. SME AND LOZ WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME IFR FOG THIS MORNING THAT WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN
13-14Z. JKL AND SJS MAY SEE SOME FOG DRIFTING UP FROM THE VALLEYS AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT...HOWEVER JUST EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT
THOSE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE GREAT...WITH VFR ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND IS EXITING
INTO VA AND TN. CONVECTION HAS ALSO MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TN AND THE SMOKEY MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF FOG HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING...AT EKQ AND I35.
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014
WITH THE WORST OF THE STORMS SINKING SOUTH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SEVERE WATCH FOR WAYNE AND MCCREARY
COUNTIES. ALSO TAPERED OFF THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE DISSEMINATION OF THE ZFP AND WCN. AN UPDATED HWO IS IN
THE QUEUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWEST AND BISECTING KENTUCKY. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S. CONDITIONS ARE JUST A BIT DRIER AND COOLER TO THE NORTHWEST
OF IT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH
LIS IN THE -8 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE WITH CAPE TO 3500 J/KG OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...THE CU IS DOING BEST
OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WHILE ON RADAR SOME RETURNS ARE FINALLY
SHOWING UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN. EXPECT THESE TO DEVELOP
AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY
FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH BOX. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE WEST
AT 10 TO 20 KTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN A RETREATING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND EXPANDING TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. A WEAK PATCH OF ENERGY WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW KNOCKING DOWN HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO
THE EVENING. THE RIDGE IS FURTHER SUPPRESSED ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHEAST TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THIS TROUGH AND SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...HEIGHTS WILL
REBOUND OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WILL FOLLOW THE DETAILS FROM THE NAM12 AND THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR MOST PROMINENTLY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY SEVERE ALONG THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. A WATCH BOX IS NOW OUT WITH WAYNE AND MCCREARY INCLUDED...AND
JUST IN TIME AS THE STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHERN
TIER. EXPECT THESE TO FADE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING HELPING
TO BUILD FOG THROUGH THE VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. THE FRONT DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TAKING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT END TO THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTH. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
ADDED TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM THEREAFTER. MOST ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH THE MOS NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014
CONDITIONS WILL STAY FAIRLY CONSTANT IN THE UPPER LEVELS DURING THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7.
SATURDAY 12Z WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE MID TERM SECTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ANY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE...KEEPING MUCH OF KY BOTH DRY AND IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOOST TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARE JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE
CONTROL...WITH HIGHS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOW A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE
WITH A THERMAL BELT SETTING UP AROUND THE RIDGES. THEN AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKES CONTROL...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE MID AND EVEN
SOME UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIATION IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NO PARTICULAR MODEL IS GOING TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE WHERE THEY WILL SET UP EXACTLY. THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
WARRANT ISOLATED CHANCES ON MONDAY...AND SCATTERED CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN KY FOR TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE
ENTERING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE MORE
LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLUX...AS WELL AS CONTINUED WARM UNSTABLE
AIR...ALLOWING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ROUND OUT OUR FORECAST PERIOD. STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED POPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTION THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMOOTHED OUT ANY MAJOR BULLSEYES OF POPS AND LOWERED SOME OF THE
HIGHER END CHANCES THAT ARE HARD TO WARRANT THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VALLEYS TO PRODUCE FOG.
THE FOG SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY MAY BE DENSE PRODUCING
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ON QUARTER MILE IN PLACES. SME AND LOZ WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME IFR FOG THIS MORNING THAT WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN
13-14Z. JKL AND SJS MAY SEE SOME FOG DRIFTING UP FROM THE VALLEYS AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT...HOWEVER JUST EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN MVFR AT
THOSE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE GREAT...WITH VFR ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE AR/LA LINE. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY GENERATED ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SCNTRL AR...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RETURNS/SPRINKLES NOTED FARTHER S
INTO NCNTRL LA. STILL SEEING EXTENSIVE AREAS OF AC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS MUCH OF AR TO JUST W OF ELD TO RSN...WITH
THE PROGS SHIFTING THIS DISTURBANCE E OUT OF OUR REGION BY 06Z.
ADDITIONAL AC IS ALSO DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS E TX/NW
LA ALONG AN ATTENDANT W-E WEAK TROUGH AXIS...BUT THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER DRY BELOW 10KFT PER THE 00Z KSHV RAOB...WITH DIRTY
RIDGING ALOFT LINGERING OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED -SHRA LATE MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR DO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/AFTER DAYBREAK N
OF I-30 WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BUT DID
TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT TO INCLUDE JUST THE EXTREME
NW ZONES.
ALSO BEEFED UP SKY COVER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL TX...AS WELL AS AC DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER E TX/N LA. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FG
FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AS THIS COULD AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE...AFFECTING THESE AREAS LATE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE MORNINGS. TEMPS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED 24 HOURS AGO...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER THE
CURRENT TRENDS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND UNTIL EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY WHEN MVFR AND VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
FIRST ACROSS DEEP E TX AROUND/AFTER 25/09Z AND FOR REMAINING E
AND NE TX AND NW AND N CENTRAL LA TERMINALS BETWEEN
25/10Z-25/13Z. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CLEAR THE FOUR STATE AREA
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ENDING ANY SHOWERS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION AS
VCSH WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 30 HAVING THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND PICKING UP IN THE MID MORNING. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 87 66 87 69 / 10 20 10 20 30
MLU 66 89 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEQ 63 85 63 85 65 / 10 30 20 30 30
TXK 66 86 65 85 67 / 10 20 10 20 30
ELD 65 88 64 87 66 / 10 20 10 20 30
TYR 68 86 66 82 68 / 10 20 20 20 30
GGG 66 85 66 85 68 / 10 20 10 20 30
LFK 68 86 67 85 69 / 10 20 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
903 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
WILL TURN EAST PASSING OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SFC TROF LINGERS IN PLACE OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF CWFA.
SHRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE TROF THRU THE DAY. GRADUALLY
THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD THRU THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END
TO SHRA FROM N TO S AS IT DOES SO. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
EVOLUTION THRU THE DAY...SO HAVE BLENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY ON RADAR AND EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO FOLLOW IT
SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER
CLOUDY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE
FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. VERY
LITTLE GRADIENT TO HELP SHIFT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SUN IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER INLAND ANY SUNNY BREAKS WILL COMBINE
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO POP OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
POSITION REMAINS OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE SET UP
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS EACH WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF PROGRESSING TO THE E TO AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE
E COAST...IN SOME CASES FORMING A CUT OFF LOW THAT SLOWS DOWN SFC
SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION THUS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF SHRA
ACTIVITY. THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS MONDAY NGT TO OUR NW THEN DRIFTS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT BRINGING A STRONGER SFC LOW
THRU WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHRA ACTIVITY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS,
PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING
TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...SCT SHRA...WITH
GREATER CHC ACROSS THE N/MT AREAS...WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY MOST
LIKELY THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS...THOUGH SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER MOST WATERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN...AND AS A RESULT...LAKE BREEZES ARE THE RULE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. PER 12Z KGRB SOUNDING...AIR MASS IS TOO
DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION ALONG AHEAD OF LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. IN FACT...THERE HASN`T BEEN TOO MUCH CU TODAY. WHAT HAS
DEVELOPED IS VERY HIGH BASED DUE TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS. EARLIER
TODAY...THERE WERE A FEW SHRA IN NE MN AND FAR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO IN AREAS OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
THOSE SHRA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTN. TEMPS ACROSS W AND
CNTRL UPPER MI HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND LWR 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MODERATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES POTENTIAL OF ANY
CONVECTION TONIGHT/SUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO
THE W DRIFTS SLIGHTLY E...WITH AXIS STILL JUST W OF UPPER MI BY LATE
SUN AFTN. 500MB HEIGHTS CHANGE LITTLE...AND IF ANYTHING THERE ARE
VERY SLIGHT RISES. OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE.
THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN SRN MANITOBA. QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM INSTABILITY (MLCAPES
ARE AROUND 1500J/KG IN SRN MANITOBA WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING). MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT OVER
UPPER MI...AND POOL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PASSES TO THE N OF UPPER
MI...FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS GFS/NAM/GEM MODEL RUNS SHOWED. HIGH RES
MODELS ALSO KEEP PCPN FARTHER N OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP CHC/SCHC POPS N OF UPPER MI AND OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. STILL...WILL NEED TO
WATCH TRENDS ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS DECAYING REMNANTS MAY SNEAK
INTO PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI SUN MORNING AS THICKNESS FIELDS
INDICATE PCPN WILL TEND TO PEEL SE WITH TIME.
ON SUN...POOL OF LOWER THETA-E/K INDEX ROTATES NE INTO UPPER MI.
THIS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALSO RESULTS IN ALMOST NO MLCAPE PER
NAM/GFS. SO THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. AS FOR TEMPS...DEEP MIXING TOWARD
750MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO
EVEN MID 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION. SW FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER
SUN THAN TODAY...SO THERE WILL ONLY BE LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LAKESIDE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
50S AT BEST. WITH DEEP MIXING...INCORPORATED LOWER DWPTS INTO THE
FCST IN THE AFTN BASED ON SOUNDINGS. DWPTS COULD VERY WELL END UP A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT
OF MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS FALLING TO THE LWR 40S...
MIN RH WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS AROUND 25PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWEST RH WILL
OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MORE SEASONABLE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET REMAINING ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTRN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO RELATIVELY WEAK AND HARD TO FORECAST DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NRN MN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO EVE. IN GENERAL...THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TOO GREAT
IN MODELS DUE TO OVER FORECAST OF SFC DWPTS IN MID 60S. MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG IN MOST OF THE NWP WHICH IS STILL LIKELY A
LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK - ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZES COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY EXCEPT THOSE AREAS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE LAKE INDUCED STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT THINK MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT
IN ANY WAY...BUT PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DODGE A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +14C. WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME CLOUDS IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY...BUT STILL AN ABOVE AVERAGE DAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
COLD LAKE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM
SUGGESTS. WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE DEVELOPING RELATIVELY STABLE NE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...WITH COOLER
TEMPS.
EXTENDED - SEASONABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S. GFS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES
FOR PCPN EACH DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STABLE SURFACE
FLOW. THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO REALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. WILL END UP INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT BUT THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...CLEARING SKIES
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THEN LOOK
LIKELY MEMORIAL DAY AS A SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CLOUDS THINNING AWAY NICELY THIS MORNING WITH A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILE THIS MORNING PER 12Z KAPX RAOB VERSUS THURSDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME CLOUD COVER FLIRTING WITH NORTHEAST LOWER
DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUT OF ONTARIO...THAT MAY BE THE ONE
PROBLEM AREA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH WEAK OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
AND CONTINUED HEATING WE`LL SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW THREAT OF FROST FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.
PATTERN SUMMARY: NORTHWEST FLOW ON CONTROL OF OUR REGION/S WEATHER
AS OF THIS WRITING WITH LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES NORTH OF A STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS WRITING...HELPING
SPAWN A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IT/S PLACE. THIS IS
MANIFESTED AS A MODEST 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BOARDER...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS FAIR WEATHER...BUT WE
HAVE SOME LLEVEL STRATUS OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LEAVE AND THUS COMPLICATE THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST THIS AM. BEYOND THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY /FROSTY?/ NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: STILL TRACKING AREA OF SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST LOWER...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. ANY SPRINKLE
THREAT SHOULD END BY 09-10Z...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.
TODAY: PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER...IT/S
EROSION AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES. PRETTY BIG MODEL DISPARITIES
IN HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELD THIS MORNING WITH THE
NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MORNING CLEARING WHILE THE RAP AND OUR
IN HOUSE LOCAL WRF WOULD LIKE TO MAINTAIN LLEVEL SATURATION OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AT LEAST THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. TRACKING
BACK THIS CLOUD DECK 24 HOURS TO A LOCATION JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY
SUGGESTS A PRETTY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS...AND THAT IS IN LINE WITH
PATTERN RECOGNITION OF SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BENEATH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL DELAY CLEARING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER NORTHERN
LOWER...AND DURING THE MID MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER. THE SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...HOWEVER...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: EXPECT CLOUDS TO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...LIMITING THE DIURNAL HEATING WINDOW.
STILL...DAYS ARE LONG AND T8S AROUND +5-6 SUGGEST MID 60S FOR
HIGHS...AND EXPECT THAT WE/LL REACH THESE VALUES...BUT LATE IN THE
DAY.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WITH AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPILL SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
ARRIVING MID LEVEL RIDGING...IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HERE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE TO KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO FAR IN THESE LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S BY LATE IN
THE DAY IN SOME OF OUR INTERIOR DRY SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE US PLENTY
OF ROOM TO COOL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
COMPLICATING FACTORS WILL BE POTENTIAL CLOUDS NORTH...AND SOME
RESIDUAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER. STILL...
LOCALES FROM CAD TO GOV SHOULD BE ABLE TO CROSS INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY GO FURTHER THAN THIS DEPENDING
ON HOW TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EVOLVE TODAY /LATER CLEARING LIMITING
HIGHS/. WORST CASE SCENARIO /SIMILAR TO MAV/ WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST FOR THE INTERIOR /NO FREEZE EXPECTED/...BUT
EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS /ALTHOUGH
COOLER THAN INHERITED LOWS/. WILL PAINT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
NO HWO MENTION THIS GO AROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO VERY LOW.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROMISES TO BRING PLEASANT LATE
SPRING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS CANADA POSSIBLY IN
COMBINATION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR YOUR
MEMORIAL DAY (SORRY ABOUT THAT ONE). MORE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY RISING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORT WAVE SNEAKS UNDER THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
(EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON) AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BREAKS
DOWN ALLOWING A SYSTEM CRUISING ACROSS CANADA TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A NICE LITTLE JET CORE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
SO IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING (AND POSSIBLY ENERGY FROM THE
WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A NARROW THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE POSSIBLE JETLET AS A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND TO START
OFF TUESDAY (THOUGH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LESS THAN OUR
LATEST GO AROUND). OTHERWISE...RENEWED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF FINE LATE SPRING WEATHER.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WHICH IS ALMOST PERFECT
SLEEPING WEATHER IF YOU ASK ME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HEADLINES: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR PRESQUE
ISLE FOR A TIME TODAY...OTHERWISE...HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE IN STORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...AS
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1114 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...CLEARING SKIES
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THEN LOOK
LIKELY MEMORIAL DAY AS A SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CLOUDS THINNING AWAY NICELY THIS MORNING WITH A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILE THIS MORNING PER 12Z KAPX RAOB VERSUS THURSDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME CLOUD COVER FLIRTING WITH NORTHEAST LOWER
DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUT OF ONTARIO...THAT MAY BE THE ONE
PROBLEM AREA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH WEAK OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
AND CONTINUED HEATING WE`LL SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW THREAT OF FROST FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.
PATTERN SUMMARY: NORTHWEST FLOW ON CONTROL OF OUR REGION/S WEATHER
AS OF THIS WRITING WITH LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES NORTH OF A STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS WRITING...HELPING
SPAWN A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IT/S PLACE. THIS IS
MANIFESTED AS A MODEST 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BOARDER...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS FAIR WEATHER...BUT WE
HAVE SOME LLEVEL STRATUS OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LEAVE AND THUS COMPLICATE THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST THIS AM. BEYOND THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY /FROSTY?/ NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: STILL TRACKING AREA OF SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST LOWER...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. ANY SPRINKLE
THREAT SHOULD END BY 09-10Z...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.
TODAY: PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER...IT/S
EROSION AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES. PRETTY BIG MODEL DISPARITIES
IN HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELD THIS MORNING WITH THE
NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MORNING CLEARING WHILE THE RAP AND OUR
IN HOUSE LOCAL WRF WOULD LIKE TO MAINTAIN LLEVEL SATURATION OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AT LEAST THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. TRACKING
BACK THIS CLOUD DECK 24 HOURS TO A LOCATION JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY
SUGGESTS A PRETTY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS...AND THAT IS IN LINE WITH
PATTERN RECOGNITION OF SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BENEATH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL DELAY CLEARING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER NORTHERN
LOWER...AND DURING THE MID MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER. THE SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...HOWEVER...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: EXPECT CLOUDS TO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...LIMITING THE DIURNAL HEATING WINDOW.
STILL...DAYS ARE LONG AND T8S AROUND +5-6 SUGGEST MID 60S FOR
HIGHS...AND EXPECT THAT WE/LL REACH THESE VALUES...BUT LATE IN THE
DAY.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WITH AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPILL SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
ARRIVING MID LEVEL RIDGING...IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HERE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE TO KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO FAR IN THESE LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S BY LATE IN
THE DAY IN SOME OF OUR INTERIOR DRY SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE US PLENTY
OF ROOM TO COOL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
COMPLICATING FACTORS WILL BE POTENTIAL CLOUDS NORTH...AND SOME
RESIDUAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER. STILL...
LOCALES FROM CAD TO GOV SHOULD BE ABLE TO CROSS INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY GO FURTHER THAN THIS DEPENDING
ON HOW TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EVOLVE TODAY /LATER CLEARING LIMITING
HIGHS/. WORST CASE SCENARIO /SIMILAR TO MAV/ WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST FOR THE INTERIOR /NO FREEZE EXPECTED/...BUT
EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS /ALTHOUGH
COOLER THAN INHERITED LOWS/. WILL PAINT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
NO HWO MENTION THIS GO AROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO VERY LOW.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROMISES TO BRING PLEASANT LATE
SPRING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS CANADA POSSIBLY IN
COMBINATION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR YOUR
MEMORIAL DAY (SORRY ABOUT THAT ONE). MORE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY RISING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORT WAVE SNEAKS UNDER THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
(EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON) AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BREAKS
DOWN ALLOWING A SYSTEM CRUISING ACROSS CANADA TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A NICE LITTLE JET CORE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
SO IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING (AND POSSIBLY ENERGY FROM THE
WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A NARROW THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE POSSIBLE JETLET AS A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND TO START
OFF TUESDAY (THOUGH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LESS THAN OUR
LATEST GO AROUND). OTHERWISE...RENEWED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF FINE LATE SPRING WEATHER.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WHICH IS ALMOST PERFECT
SLEEPING WEATHER IF YOU ASK ME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RESTRICTIONS: ONGOING STRATUS WILL BRING GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT /OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTH/.
WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CALM/LIGHT-VARIABLE TONIGHT.
LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HEADLINES: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR PRESQUE
ISLE FOR A TIME TODAY...OTHERWISE...HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE IN STORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...CLEARING SKIES
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THEN LOOK
LIKELY MEMORIAL DAY AS A SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW THREAT OF FROST FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.
PATTERN SUMMARY: NORTHWEST FLOW ON CONTROL OF OUR REGION/S WEATHER
AS OF THIS WRITING WITH LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES NORTH OF A STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS WRITING...HELPING
SPAWN A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IT/S PLACE. THIS IS
MANIFESTED AS A MODEST 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BOARDER...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS FAIR WEATHER...BUT WE
HAVE SOME LLEVEL STRATUS OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LEAVE AND THUS COMPLICATE THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST THIS AM. BEYOND THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY /FROSTY?/ NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: STILL TRACKING AREA OF SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST LOWER...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. ANY SPRINKLE
THREAT SHOULD END BY 09-10Z...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.
TODAY: PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER...IT/S
EROSION AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES. PRETTY BIG MODEL DISPARITIES
IN HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELD THIS MORNING WITH THE
NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MORNING CLEARING WHILE THE RAP AND OUR
IN HOUSE LOCAL WRF WOULD LIKE TO MAINTAIN LLEVEL SATURATION OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AT LEAST THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. TRACKING
BACK THIS CLOUD DECK 24 HOURS TO A LOCATION JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY
SUGGESTS A PRETTY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS...AND THAT IS IN LINE WITH
PATTERN RECOGNITION OF SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BENEATH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL DELAY CLEARING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER NORTHERN
LOWER...AND DURING THE MID MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER. THE SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...HOWEVER...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: EXPECT CLOUDS TO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...LIMITING THE DIURNAL HEATING WINDOW.
STILL...DAYS ARE LONG AND T8S AROUND +5-6 SUGGEST MID 60S FOR
HIGHS...AND EXPECT THAT WE/LL REACH THESE VALUES...BUT LATE IN THE
DAY.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WITH AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPILL SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
ARRIVING MID LEVEL RIDGING...IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HERE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE TO KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO FAR IN THESE LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S BY LATE IN
THE DAY IN SOME OF OUR INTERIOR DRY SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE US PLENTY
OF ROOM TO COOL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
COMPLICATING FACTORS WILL BE POTENTIAL CLOUDS NORTH...AND SOME
RESIDUAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER. STILL...
LOCALES FROM CAD TO GOV SHOULD BE ABLE TO CROSS INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY GO FURTHER THAN THIS DEPENDING
ON HOW TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EVOLVE TODAY /LATER CLEARING LIMITING
HIGHS/. WORST CASE SCENARIO /SIMILAR TO MAV/ WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST FOR THE INTERIOR /NO FREEZE EXPECTED/...BUT
EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS /ALTHOUGH
COOLER THAN INHERITED LOWS/. WILL PAINT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
NO HWO MENTION THIS GO AROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO VERY LOW.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROMISES TO BRING PLEASANT LATE
SPRING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS CANADA POSSIBLY IN
COMBINATION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR YOUR
MEMORIAL DAY (SORRY ABOUT THAT ONE). MORE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY RISING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORT WAVE SNEAKS UNDER THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
(EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON) AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BREAKS
DOWN ALLOWING A SYSTEM CRUISING ACROSS CANADA TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A NICE LITTLE JET CORE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
SO IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING (AND POSSIBLY ENERGY FROM THE
WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A NARROW THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE POSSIBLE JETLET AS A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND TO START
OFF TUESDAY (THOUGH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LESS THAN OUR
LATEST GO AROUND). OTHERWISE...RENEWED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF FINE LATE SPRING WEATHER.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WHICH IS ALMOST PERFECT
SLEEPING WEATHER IF YOU ASK ME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WITH IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RESTRICTIONS: ONGOING STRATUS WILL BRING GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT /OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTH/.
WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CALM/LIGHT-VARIABLE TONIGHT.
LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HEADLINES: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR PRESQUE
ISLE FOR A TIME TODAY...OTHERWISE...HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE IN STORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
336 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...CLEARING SKIES
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THEN LOOK
LIKELY MEMORIAL DAY AS A SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN TODAY...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW THREAT OF FROST FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.
PATTERN SUMMARY: NORTHWEST FLOW ON CONTROL OF OUR REGION/S WEATHER
AS OF THIS WRITING WITH LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES NORTH OF A STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS WRITING...HELPING
SPAWN A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IT/S PLACE. THIS IS
MANIFESTED AS A MODEST 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BOARDER...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS FAIR WEATHER...BUT WE
HAVE SOME LLEVEL STRATUS OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LEAVE AND THUS COMPLICATE THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST THIS AM. BEYOND THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY /FROSTY?/ NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: STILL TRACKING AREA OF SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST LOWER...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. ANY SPRINKLE
THREAT SHOULD END BY 09-10Z...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.
TODAY: PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER...IT/S
EROSION AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES. PRETTY BIG MODEL DISPARITIES
IN HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELD THIS MORNING WITH THE
NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MORNING CLEARING WHILE THE RAP AND OUR
IN HOUSE LOCAL WRF WOULD LIKE TO MAINTAIN LLEVEL SATURATION OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AT LEAST THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. TRACKING
BACK THIS CLOUD DECK 24 HOURS TO A LOCATION JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY
SUGGESTS A PRETTY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS...AND THAT IS IN LINE WITH
PATTERN RECOGNITION OF SOME MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BENEATH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL DELAY CLEARING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER NORTHERN
LOWER...AND DURING THE MID MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER. THE SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...HOWEVER...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: EXPECT CLOUDS TO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...LIMITING THE DIURNAL HEATING WINDOW.
STILL...DAYS ARE LONG AND T8S AROUND +5-6 SUGGEST MID 60S FOR
HIGHS...AND EXPECT THAT WE/LL REACH THESE VALUES...BUT LATE IN THE
DAY.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WITH AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPILL SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
ARRIVING MID LEVEL RIDGING...IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HERE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE TO KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES FALLING TOO FAR IN THESE LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/: CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S BY LATE IN
THE DAY IN SOME OF OUR INTERIOR DRY SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE US PLENTY
OF ROOM TO COOL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
COMPLICATING FACTORS WILL BE POTENTIAL CLOUDS NORTH...AND SOME
RESIDUAL GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER. STILL...
LOCALES FROM CAD TO GOV SHOULD BE ABLE TO CROSS INTO THE UPPER
30S...AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS WE MAY GO FURTHER THAN THIS DEPENDING
ON HOW TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EVOLVE TODAY /LATER CLEARING LIMITING
HIGHS/. WORST CASE SCENARIO /SIMILAR TO MAV/ WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST FOR THE INTERIOR /NO FREEZE EXPECTED/...BUT
EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS /ALTHOUGH
COOLER THAN INHERITED LOWS/. WILL PAINT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
NO HWO MENTION THIS GO AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
...NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE TO VERY LOW.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROMISES TO BRING PLEASANT LATE
SPRING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS CANADA POSSIBLY IN
COMBINATION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR YOUR
MEMORIAL DAY (SORRY ABOUT THAT ONE). MORE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY RISING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORT WAVE SNEAKS UNDER THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
(EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON) AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BREAKS
DOWN ALLOWING A SYSTEM CRUISING ACROSS CANADA TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A NICE LITTLE JET CORE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
SO IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING (AND POSSIBLY ENERGY FROM THE
WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A NARROW THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE POSSIBLE JETLET AS A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND TO START
OFF TUESDAY (THOUGH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LESS THAN OUR
LATEST GO AROUND). OTHERWISE...RENEWED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF FINE LATE SPRING WEATHER.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WHICH IS ALMOST PERFECT
SLEEPING WEATHER IF YOU ASK ME).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE NW OF SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT SE...FEEDING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES TO ALL TAF SITES. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT APN. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.
NW WINDS...LIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CALM/LIGHT-VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HEADLINES: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR PRESQUE
ISLE FOR A TIME TODAY...OTHERWISE...HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE IN STORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ/ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FALLEN APART OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY...BUT HAVE
LEFT THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STORMS PERCOLATING N OF THE BORDER.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH STORMS PERCOLATING NEARBY. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE EARLY
TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW AND MID LVL WARMING HAS RESTRICTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU BUILDING OVER ARROWHEAD. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES PER THE
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. WE MAY YET SEE AN ISOLATED RW/TRW DEVELOP.
TEMPS JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY EXCEPT MUCH COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ITS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND WITH THAT COMES THE
USUAL CHALLENGE OF FCSTING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ABSENCE OF WELL
DEFINED BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID LVL WARMING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AMIDST A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED LARGE SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE BASIC
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF MULTI MDL QPF CONCENTRATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS WEST PER
LATEST SREF/GEM/NAM CONSENSUS. EVEN 4KM SPC WRFNMM..WHICH IS A
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL...DOESNT ALLOW CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BASED ON LATEST FCST 925H VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST MN THEN EITHER MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MN. WHERE IT
SLOWS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
POSITION BY TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES. ATMOS DESTABILIZES WITH CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY
ABOUT TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PUTTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN OFF-LAKE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT INL FROM
00Z TO 02Z. HAVE A VCTS MENTION ATTM AS STORMS APPEAR TO BE NEARBY
BUT NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING INL. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND SKY WILL CLEAR. GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 16Z-18Z. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BE NEAR BRD NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT TIMING IS AN ISSUE AND JUST HAVE A
VCSH MENTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 79 60 78 / 0 10 60 20
INL 56 82 57 78 / 60 10 40 10
BRD 55 81 62 80 / 0 20 50 20
HYR 48 81 61 80 / 0 10 60 30
ASX 50 79 59 79 / 0 10 60 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH STORMS PERCOLATING NEARBY. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE EARLY
TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW AND MID LVL WARMING HAS RESTRICTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU BUILDING OVER ARROWHEAD. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES PER THE
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. WE MAY YET SEE AN ISOLATED RW/TRW DEVELOP.
TEMPS JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY EXCEPT MUCH COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ITS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND WITH THAT COMES THE
USUAL CHALLENGE OF FCSTING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ABSENCE OF WELL
DEFINED BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID LVL WARMING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AMIDST A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED LARGE SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE BASIC
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF MULTI MDL QPF CONCENTRATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS WEST PER
LATEST SREF/GEM/NAM CONSENSUS. EVEN 4KM SPC WRFNMM..WHICH IS A
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL...DOESNT ALLOW CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BASED ON LATEST FCST 925H VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST MN THEN EITHER MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MN. WHERE IT
SLOWS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
POSITION BY TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES. ATMOS DESTABILIZES WITH CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY
ABOUT TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PUTTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN OFF-LAKE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT INL FROM
00Z TO 02Z. HAVE A VCTS MENTION ATTM AS STORMS APPEAR TO BE NEARBY
BUT NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING INL. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND SKY WILL CLEAR. GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 16Z-18Z. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BE NEAR BRD NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT TIMING IS AN ISSUE AND JUST HAVE A
VCSH MENTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 79 60 78 / 10 10 60 20
INL 59 82 57 78 / 60 10 40 10
BRD 58 81 62 80 / 10 20 50 20
HYR 52 81 61 80 / 10 10 60 30
ASX 51 79 59 79 / 0 10 60 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
621 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE EARLY
TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW AND MID LVL WARMING HAS RESTRICTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU BUILDING OVER ARROWHEAD. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES PER THE
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. WE MAY YET SEE AN ISOLATED RW/TRW DEVELOP.
TEMPS JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY EXCEPT MUCH COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ITS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND WITH THAT COMES THE
USUAL CHALLENGE OF FCSTING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ABSENCE OF WELL
DEFINED BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID LVL WARMING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AMIDST A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED LARGE SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE BASIC
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF MULTI MDL QPF CONCENTRATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS WEST PER
LATEST SREF/GEM/NAM CONSENSUS. EVEN 4KM SPC WRFNMM..WHICH IS A
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL...DOESNT ALLOW CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BASED ON LATEST FCST 925H VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST MN THEN EITHER MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MN. WHERE IT
SLOWS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
POSITION BY TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES. ATMOS DESTABILIZES WITH CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY
ABOUT TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PUTTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN OFF-LAKE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT INL FROM
00Z TO 02Z. HAVE A VCTS MENTION ATTM AS STORMS APPEAR TO BE NEARBY
BUT NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING INL. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND SKY WILL CLEAR. GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 16Z-18Z. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BE NEAR BRD NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT TIMING IS AN ISSUE AND JUST HAVE A
VCSH MENTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 79 60 78 / 10 10 60 20
INL 59 82 57 78 / 20 10 40 10
BRD 58 81 62 80 / 10 20 50 20
HYR 52 81 61 80 / 10 10 60 30
ASX 51 79 59 79 / 0 10 60 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
351 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH HAS KEPT THE NORTHLAND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WAA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
THIS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVE
AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE LATEST WRF-NMM ALSO DEPICTS THIS
ACTIVITY AND HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA. WE WILL
LEAVE IT OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN KEEP SOME SMALL POPS LATER
TONIGHT.
LOWER STABILITY WILL RESIDE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY...AND WE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
THERE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. WE THINK THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING AT THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ONE MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
GOOD CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST WITH A SOMEWHAT SPLIT FLOW IN THE
MID LVLS THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES OF NOTE IN THE NEXT
5 TO 7 DAYS. FIRST...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. SECOND...A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA AMIDST
A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST INITIAL PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA
HOWEVER GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MASS FIELDS TO HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. GEM REMAINS AN OUTLIER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
SO ITS OUTPUT WAS GIVEN LOWER CONSIDERATION. MAIN CHANGE TO
YESTERDAYS FCST WAS TO PUSH PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION MORE QUICKLY
MONDAY AS FRONTAL BDRY HEADS SOUTH AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE TUESDAY SHOULD ASSIST WITH STRENGTHENING
OF SFC HIGH AND WEDGE OF COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING DOWN LAKE INTO TWIN
PORTS. LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS DURING THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT DRY UNTIL NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO EXCEPT NEAR
IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS... NEAR KINL AND KDLH.
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH WILL
ALLOW SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW AT KINL. MAY
NEED TO AMEND KDLH FOR BR/FG POTENTIAL AFTER 08Z TONIGHT AS FCST
SNDGS SHOW FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE DEVELOPING FOR A BRIEF TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 75 56 78 / 10 10 10 20
INL 50 79 58 74 / 20 20 30 60
BRD 52 80 59 81 / 10 10 20 40
HYR 43 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 43 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1136 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY...HANGING TOUGH FROM
KINL TO KDLH TO KHYR AND KPBH. THE RAP HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB
DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS. COLD TEMPS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THE CLOUDS.
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS THE
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE CWA
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCALES ACROSS THE
CWA MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD TRACK FRIDAY...WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST AREAS. IT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
MOST AREAS CLIMBING TO 69 TO 75. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
COOLER WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE MORE
SUN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPS OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A MID LVL RIDGE OVER NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. WITHIN THAT REGIME THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT AMONGST MED RANGE MDL SUITE THAT A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROF MAY DAMPEN RIDGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EPISODE OF
PRECIP. AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES INTO REGION THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD PATTERN OF WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID
LAYERS. A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE IS A CHC THAT SCT CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SAT AFTN
OVER WRN CWA. HOWEVER WILL ACCEPT MDL TREND TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL
OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND START PRECIP POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST PROB OCCURRING SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED WITH PASSAGE
OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO HOW SOON
THE PRECIP MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEYOND THAT UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS INITIAL SFC BDRY MOVES WELL SOUTH OF REGION TUESDAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY RETREATS NORTH BY MIDWEEK. ALLBLEND SOLUTION
GIVES POPS ACROSS SRN CWA TUES/WED HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EVIDENT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SHIFT TO A DRIER
PATTERN IF MDL TRENDS CONTINUE. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
PERIOD AS 50H PATTERN ADVERTISES ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 70 46 75 / 0 0 0 10
INL 39 73 50 79 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 42 75 55 79 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 38 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 39 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING WEST OF
BILLINGS AS THE TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS HAVE HAD HEAVY RAINFALL. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR
THE EVENING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AS FORCING SHIFT
ACROSS. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PACIFIC FRONT TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...A DIFFERENT WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF WYOMING WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT
SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING.
AS OF 20Z...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO OUR WEST...AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID-50S. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND BACK ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SHEAR REMAIN MEAGER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONLY ABOUT 20
KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THUS...EXPECT VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
ORGANIZATION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA TOWARD
BILLINGS THIS EVENING...AS THE SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS WILL HELP TO
ORGANIZE SOME MULTICELLAR CLUSTERS. THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS LOW...WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL EXPECTED. THE STORM
MOTIONS WILL ALSO BE SLOW WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG STEERING FLOW.
THAT COMBINED WITH PW VALUES 0.75 INCHES TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
EAST...WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. GIVEN
THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DECENT HAIL CAPE AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXPECT THAT SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LOW- END SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR
AND STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING A WIDESPREAD
THREAT. AN AXIS OF DCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IS ALSO ANALYZED
ON MESOANALYSIS...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE INVERTED-V RAP SOUNDING
FOR KBIL. THUS CAN ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN BACK AROUND THE TO EAST WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. MODELS WANT TO BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY
EVENING...PRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR
COULD BE A LITTLE BETTER ON MONDAY THAN TODAY SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION MONDAY
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS IS
FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN AN OVERALL WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE HIGH-COUNTRY SNOW MELT...AND
ASSOCIATE RIVER RISES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE BEST ON TUESDAY...AND SHIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ANOTHER UPPER-LOW
TO DEVELOP OVER OREGON...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST...MODELS WANT TO PULL THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. KBIL AND KMLS WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF KBIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/076 055/081 054/078 054/083 055/080 052/075 053/072
61/B 13/T 43/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 044/074 047/078 044/075 045/083 045/078 043/073 047/070
52/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 053/078 051/083 054/081 055/086 056/082 053/077 054/074
61/B 12/T 32/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 44/T
MLS 057/079 054/083 056/083 058/088 060/082 055/077 055/072
72/W 13/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 44/T
4BQ 055/078 054/083 055/083 057/089 059/083 055/077 054/073
52/W 12/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 34/T 44/T
BHK 056/079 052/080 055/080 057/085 059/081 053/076 055/071
62/W 13/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 33/T 44/T
SHR 050/074 047/079 049/079 050/085 054/081 050/074 050/071
52/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 34/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
634 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...12Z UPPER AIR OBS
AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF NORTH GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE...BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING PRECIP NEVER
COMPLETELY GO AWAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AROUND...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER INCREASED /BUT
STILL WEAK/ ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SW. HASNT REALLY BEEN MUCH LIGHTNING TO SPEAK OF...BUT WITH
THERE BEING INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA..EVEN WITH PRETTY
SAD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THERE ARE NO NOTABLE LARGE
SCALE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN...AS THAT SWRN LOW MAKES LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATIONS OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD AND
THROUGH THE PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THAT...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFIC DETAILS...AND KEPT THE FAIRLY BROAD 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
GOING ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE
A BIT BETTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PERHAPS COULD SEE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT WITH
SHEAR VALUES SO LOW...ITS NOT OVERLY LIKELY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST REGION AND LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE CHANGES...WITH WINDS REMAINING S/SERLY. SPEEDS LOOKS TO
TAPER OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE PICKING BACK UP INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TOMORROW. SAW SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE WINDS TAPERING BACK OFF AGAIN
TONIGHT...THAT POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE THERE...AND KEPT MENTION
GOING. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...LOOKING AT GENERALLY LOWER 60S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE QUITE SIMILAR REGARDING THE PATTERN OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTING AT 00Z MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW WILL HAVE ONLY MOVED A BIT TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED AROUND SW COLORADO...JUST NE OF THE 4
CORNERS. A BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN JET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
AND CANADA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF BOTH COASTS AND RIDGING IN THE
CENTRAL. THIS PATTERN LEAVES MUCH OF KS/NEB WITH EXTREMELY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN OPEN
GULF. THUS DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD BE OVER NW OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
AND THEN OVER SE OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE WED. BY THAT TIME...OUR CWA
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO WED MORNING WE WILL STILL BE IN WEAK UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS FEATURES
IS EAST OF US.
THE MOST DIFFICULT QUESTION IS JUST HOW HIGH OF RAIN CHANCES DO WE
HAVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT AN EASY ANSWER FOR SURE. MODEL
GENERATED PRECIP FROM NAM/GFS/EC FOR CURRENT TIME FRAME NOT VERY
REPRESENTATIVE...SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT CHANCES 36 TO 84 HOURS OUT.
WEIGHING THE PROS AND CONS...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER CYCLONIC
FLOW INTO TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES PROGGED
TO REMAIN WELL OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE NORMALLY SEE IN LATE MAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S...EXPECT RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES IN THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE. CHECKING THE
CONS...NO OBVIOUS TRIGGERING MECHANISMS WITH SURFACE FRONT WELL TO
THE NORTH. AND AS NOTED ABOVE...UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK
RESULTING IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 5 TO 15 KT.
SO ALL IN ALL...20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS EXPECTED INTO TUES AND THEN
MAINLY DRY AFTER THAT ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STRANGE BUT THESE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS WE
USUALLY ARE WRITING ABOUT IN JULY AND AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AVIATION FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THE IMPACT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY HAVE ON KGRI SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN LOWER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF KGRI TAF FOR NOW GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL AND CONFIDENCE OF ONE OF THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY IMPACTING
KGRI IS LOW. THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTION LATE
TONIGHT AS FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP TAF VFR TO MVFR FOR NOW...BUT MAY
HAVE TO UPDATE TO GO IFR DOWN THE ROAD DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TRENDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER APPEARS LOCATED NEAR LAMAR CO FROM
EARLIER MCS WHICH DEVELOPED AND MOVED NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SLOW PROPAGATION TO
THE NORTH. DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL
INDICATED BY RADAR FROM SERN CHASE INTO HAYES COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WRN NEBR RANGED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SRN CALIF EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WESTERN
KANSAS INTO SWRN NEBR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH PRIOR TO 12Z. AN
APPARENT MVC NEAR LAMA CO SHOULD CONTINUED LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEBR. THE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PLACED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR. NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER 15Z FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. STORM MOTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WILL ONLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING CELLS.
SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 IN SWRN NEBR
TO AROUND 75 IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANWHILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED FROM THE SYSTEM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW DUE TO WEAK
WINDS ALOFT...BUT THIS WILL AID IN THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED...AS NO REAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MAY SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS INVOF OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
WITH 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NEAR THE FRONT.
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY...AND WITH POSSIBLY MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 80. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE KLBF TERMINAL
AT THE MOMENT. ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR AND AT
TIMES IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. TONIGHT THE CHANCE
CONTINUES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNSURE
ON COVERAGE AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
WITH THE RICH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP. IF
THERE ARE SHOWERS...FOG MAY BE LESS A CONCERN.
FURTHER NORTH VFR CONDITION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY PUSH NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
PUSH INTO THE KVTN. LATER TAF UPDATES WILL DEFINE TIMES...HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF AT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. SIMILAR TO KLBF...FOG COULD BE AND
ISSUE...ALTHOUGH LOWER VISBY EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
641 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER APPEARS LOCATED NEAR LAMAR CO FROM
EARLIER MCS WHICH DEVELOPED AND MOVED NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SLOW PROPAGATION TO
THE NORTH. DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL
INDICATED BY RADAR FROM SERN CHASE INTO HAYES COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WRN NEBR RANGED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SRN CALIF EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WESTERN
KANSAS INTO SWRN NEBR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH PRIOR TO 12Z. AN
APPARENT MVC NEAR LAMA CO SHOULD CONTINUED LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEBR. THE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PLACED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR. NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER 15Z FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. STORM MOTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WILL ONLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING CELLS.
SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 IN SWRN NEBR
TO AROUND 75 IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANWHILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED FROM THE SYSTEM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW DUE TO WEAK
WINDS ALOFT...BUT THIS WILL AID IN THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED...AS NO REAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MAY SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS INVOF OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
WITH 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NEAR THE FRONT.
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY...AND WITH POSSIBLY MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 80. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC015 CONTINUE AT KLBF AND SHOULD PERSIST
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
KLBF TERMINAL AFTER 15Z WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KVTN...WITH PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION FOR SHOWERS ATTM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER APPEARS LOCATED NEAR LAMAR CO FROM
EARLIER MCS WHICH DEVELOPED AND MOVED NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SLOW PROPAGATION TO
THE NORTH. DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL
INDICATED BY RADAR FROM SERN CHASE INTO HAYES COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WRN NEBR RANGED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SRN CALIF EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WESTERN
KANSAS INTO SWRN NEBR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH PRIOR TO 12Z. AN
APPARENT MVC NEAR LAMA CO SHOULD CONTINUED LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEBR. THE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PLACED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR. NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER 15Z FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. STORM MOTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WILL ONLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING CELLS.
SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 IN SWRN NEBR
TO AROUND 75 IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANWHILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED FROM THE SYSTEM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW DUE TO WEAK
WINDS ALOFT...BUT THIS WILL AID IN THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED...AS NO REAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MAY SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS INVOF OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
WITH 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NEAR THE FRONT.
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY...AND WITH POSSIBLY MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 80. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR BKN020 HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLBF AND SHOULD
PERSIST TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SWRN NEBR
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE KLBF TERMINAL BY 12Z WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KVTN...WITH
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR SHOWERS ATTM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER APPEARS LOCATED NEAR LAMAR CO FROM
EARLIER MCS WHICH DEVELOPED AND MOVED NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SLOW PROPAGATION TO
THE NORTH. DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL
INDICATED BY RADAR FROM SERN CHASE INTO HAYES COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WRN NEBR RANGED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN FAR SRN CALIF EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WESTERN
KANSAS INTO SWRN NEBR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH PRIOR TO 12Z. AN
APPARENT MVC NEAR LAMA CO SHOULD CONTINUED LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEBR. THE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ARE PLACED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR. NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER 15Z FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. STORM MOTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WILL ONLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING CELLS.
SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 IN SWRN NEBR
TO AROUND 75 IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANWHILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED FROM THE SYSTEM THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW DUE TO WEAK
WINDS ALOFT...BUT THIS WILL AID IN THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED...AS NO REAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MAY SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS INVOF OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
WITH 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NEAR THE FRONT.
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT ALL MODELS INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY...AND WITH POSSIBLY MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 80. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT TERMINALS KLBF
AND KVTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWEST WHERE BEYOND
MIDNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE APPROACH WITH LOW
CLOUDS FORMING AOB 2500 FEET...BEYOND 06Z. THEN AREAS OF FOG MAY
ALSO DEVELOP AND INCLUDED IN THE KLBF TERMINAL BEYOND 09Z THEN CLOUDS
LIFTING...OR DISSIPATING BEYOND 15Z TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
515 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BECOME EVIDENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RISING TO THEIR
HIGHEST LEVELS SO FAR IN 2014.
&&
.UPDATE...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CLARK
COUNTY. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
138 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO [EVER SO SLOWLY] PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT RAIN HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTED OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS BUT NOTHING HAS MEASURED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
ANY CASE...THIS BAND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO FORM OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACROSS LINCOLN AND INTO
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER...WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER CLARK COUNTY AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL REALLY
ADVERTISING THIS IDEA AND FOR THE MOMENT HAVE CUT OFF THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE LINCOLN-CLARK BORDER. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXISTS OVER
THE SIERRA AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. THE BIGGER STORY
FOR SUNDAY WILL BE A MARKED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RISING 5-10 DEGREES OVER THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND BETTER MIXING
ALLOWING HIGHS TO ECLIPSE 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY REACHING 110 IN DEATH VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH THE HEAT PEAKING AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS OVERHEAD. ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS BETWEEN 103 AND 105. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IS A
TOUCH COOLER THAN THAT BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
MONDAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS
105 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WOULD PUT US INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT
CRITERIA. WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND GREAT BASIN AS THE
REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WITH SOME TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE AMANDA WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH INTO THIS FLOW
AND BRING US A MORE MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE ARE
PRETTY SLIM BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
MOHAVE COUNTY, WOULD BE THE BEST SUITED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH.
FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH REGARD TO
HOW TO HANDLE THE CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST. FOR NOW KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE
SETTLED TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS EXPECTED AN WILL LIKELY FLIRT
BETWEEN CONFIGS 2 AND 4 INTO THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12
KTS. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 04-05Z. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. NORTH OF LAS VEGAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES FOR SUNDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SIERRA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............OUTLER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
821 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...REACHING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE SKY/POP/QPF/WX GRIDS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP...PRIMARILY FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER COCONINO COUNTY IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...BUT MAY
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER CROSSING THE RIVER. I COOLED HIGH TEMPS AND
RAISED DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. I ALSO BOOSTED POPS
OVER PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. CONVECTION THERE SHOULD BE
A BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCAL HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE HRRR ARE POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MODEST OUTFLOW WINDS PUSHING WEST FROM NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES TOWARDS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE MOMENT HAVE NOT ALTERED THE WIND GRIDS
AND WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL
AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS ABOUT 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE TIME. A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY OUT
OF THE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PEACH
SPRINGS...MORMON MESA...AND DAGGETT APPROACH CORRIDORS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT EAST AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA APPROACH CORRIDORS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
HIGHEST EAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO MOUNT CHARLESTON TO RACHEL.
FOR SATURDAY...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MOHAVE AND
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS EACH DAY
WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 227 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST SHOWERS
HAD DIED OUT DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SURFACE
OBS SHOWED LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EAST INTO ARIZONA TODAY AND MEANDER
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PINPOINTING THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS FROM
YESTERDAY SEEMED TO DO A REASONABLE JOB...AND THEY SUGGEST THE BEST
CHANCES WOULD BE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS TODAY...FARTHER EAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY IN THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY. /UPDATE...THE 06Z
NAM12 RUN SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY IN AN ARC FROM THE SIERRA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND DOWN TO MOHAVE COUNTY ON SUNDAY...AND
IF THIS IS PRESENT IN THE 12Z RUNS...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
INCREASING POPS./ WINDS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN EXCEPT FOR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE AS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGING
NOSES IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG THE WEST COAST, MAINLY AS PIECES OF
ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN THAT WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST. MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TEMPS WERE
MAINLY A BLEND OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS BASED OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SOME BIAS-CORRECTED CONS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
STREAM SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER, EACH DAY AS
THE DIURNAL TRENDS FAVOR SOUTHWEST WINDS SETTING UP, WE SHOULD SEE
LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE COOLING IN THE SOUTHWEST CWFA AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST OF SOCAL AND SOME MARINE
AIR TRIES TO OOZE THROUGH THE COASTAL PASSES INTO THE HIGH DESERT.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL BRING SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EDT FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES IN
VERMONT.
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT
PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THAT REMNANT OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SWRN VT
INTO WRN MA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES GIVEN FORECAST WEAK SBCAPE VALUES IN 12Z
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE HRRR /BTV-4KM INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL VT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS AFTN. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 0.2-0.4"/HR ACROSS SRN CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES
WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
2-3"/6-HR WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT...SO
GIVEN RAIN RATES IT WILL DEPEND ON PERSISTENCE/STATIONARITY OF
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
VAD WIND PROFILES AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC- 250MB
FLOW BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL LEVELS...WHICH CERTAINLY WILL SUPPORT
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS. CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY
MITIGATING FACTOR IS THAT PW VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 0.75"...AFTER
BEING 1.1-1.2" YESTERDAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM
TRENDS FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED ON ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.
WITH LOW OVERCAST IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTN AND HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR READINGS 62-64F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...65-69F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE...WHILE HOLDING IN THE UPR 50S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOST SECTIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY AGAIN LINGER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH MINOR...AND SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED. DUE TO SOME SUN IN THE FORECAST...AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING NW
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. DAYTIME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND FLOW WEAKENS AS
WELL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE...AND RESULTING IN MIN
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...HAVE CHANCE POPS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
SUN HELPING TO WARM THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE WEATHER FEATURES WILL
BE A WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT PASSING EARLY MONDAY AND A
COLD FRONT PASSING EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER WED AND THU. THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXPECT CLOSE TO AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THOUGH IT
MIGHT BE A BIT COOLER ON WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A COLD TROF/CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HEAT RIDGE IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE RISING IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF/CUTOFF LOW IN THE
MARITIMES WITH THE ECMWF COMING BETTER IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
SUNDAY NIGHT A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.
MONDAY AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWERS THE AREA GETS MORE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR WITH 85O TEMPS REACHING AS HIGH AS +10 TO +12C, SO
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S, PERHAPS NEAR 80. COULD BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY 850 TEMPS DROPPING WITH ABOUT +8C GIVING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
WED...850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C EARLY RECOVER UP TO ABOUT 5-7C SO
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 UNDER A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S, PERHAPS INTO THE 30S IN THE COLD SPOTS.
THU...850 TEMPS BACK UP TO 8-10C WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AGAIN WITH
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY SFC LOW KEEPS MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CPV AND VT...WITH VFR/MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SHOWERS LGT TO MOD IN INTENSITY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW...WITH MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOWARD
THE SOUTH...KRUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTN.
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KBTV...KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH THIS
EVENING. KPBG MAY SEE BREAKS OF VFR BTWN SHOWERS. KSLK CURRENTLY
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS...WHILE KMSS HAS LESS
CHC FOR PRECIP WITH VCSH.
OVRNGT...LLVL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR BR/FG AND CIGS FROM
LOW STRATUS DECK. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR/MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW
IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
00Z MON THRU 12Z WEDENSDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP THREAT OF SCT MVFR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL BRING SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EDT FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES IN
VERMONT.
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT
PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THAT REMNANT OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SWRN VT
INTO WRN MA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES GIVEN FORECAST WEAK SBCAPE VALUES IN 12Z
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE HRRR /BTV-4KM INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL VT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS AFTN. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 0.2-0.4"/HR ACROSS SRN CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES
WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
2-3"/6-HR WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT...SO
GIVEN RAIN RATES IT WILL DEPEND ON PERSISTENCE/STATIONARITY OF
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
VAD WIND PROFILES AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC- 250MB
FLOW BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL LEVELS...WHICH CERTAINLY WILL SUPPORT
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS. CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY
MITIGATING FACTOR IS THAT PW VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 0.75"...AFTER
BEING 1.1-1.2" YESTERDAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM
TRENDS FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED ON ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.
WITH LOW OVERCAST IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTN AND HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR READINGS 62-64F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...65-69F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE...WHILE HOLDING IN THE UPR 50S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOST SECTIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY AGAIN LINGER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH MINOR...AND SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED. DUE TO SOME SUN IN THE FORECAST...AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING NW
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. DAYTIME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND FLOW WEAKENS AS
WELL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE...AND RESULTING IN MIN
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...HAVE CHANCE POPS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
SUN HELPING TO WARM THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE WEATHER FEATURES WILL
BE A WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT PASSING EARLY MONDAY AND A
COLD FRONT PASSING EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER WED AND THU. THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXPECT CLOSE TO AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THOUGH IT
MIGHT BE A BIT COOLER ON WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A COLD TROF/CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HEAT RIDGE IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE RISING IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF/CUTOFF LOW IN THE
MARITIMES WITH THE ECMWF COMING BETTER IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
SUNDAY NIGHT A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.
MONDAY AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWERS THE AREA GETS MORE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR WITH 85O TEMPS REACHING AS HIGH AS +10 TO +12C, SO
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S, PERHAPS NEAR 80. COULD BE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY 850 TEMPS DROPPING WITH ABOUT +8C GIVING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
WED...850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C EARLY RECOVER UP TO ABOUT 5-7C SO
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 UNDER A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S, PERHAPS INTO THE 30S IN THE COLD SPOTS.
THU...850 TEMPS BACK UP TO 8-10C WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AGAIN WITH
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...LOW
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND MIST WITH 0-3 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY TO MVFR OR JUST BARELY
VFR BY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A THUNDERSTORM DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING TAKES PLACE, BUT
INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER AT KMSS
WITH A BIT MORE HEATING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT PERHAPS A TREND TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT KBTV/KPBG AND AT KMSS WHERE
IT WILL BE PERSISTENT NE AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MVFR/IFR EARLY BECOMING MAINLY VFR WITH
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
QUICK UPDATE AGAIN FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN STARK COUNTY. PROBABLY A FEW MORE TRAINING CELLS
OVER THIS AREA BEFORE THE THETA-E RIDGE STARTS TO GET SHUNTED EAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE EAST. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST FROM WILLISTON
TO EAST OF CROSBY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST
OVERNIGHT. LIMITED POPS EVEN MORE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE
THETA-E RIDGE OVER GRANT COUNTY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER
THE THETA-E RIDGE IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER WEST OVER
STARK COUNTY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH AND LIFTING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE
APPEARS MINIMAL WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WILL
SEE THE LOWEST THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM DO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...THUS
SPREADING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND POPS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY GRANT COUNTY IN A THETA-E
RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE THETA-E RIDGE ADVANCES
SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
DETERMINING IF IT WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FIRST THING`S FIRST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY OVER SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ORGANIZING INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING INTO
ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS
AND ECMWF FORECASTS...A RETURN TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE VERY WET
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND IS ADVERTISED. LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
EXPECT A WARM WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C OR IN THE LOWER 20C
RANGE. SOME SUNSHINE UNDER THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT...KEEPING
A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KDIK...KISN AND POSSIBLY KBIS. KMOT
AND KJMS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO KMOT AND KBIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
DRIER NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MOVING INTO KISN AND KDIK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE
THETA-E RIDGE OVER GRANT COUNTY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER
THE THETA-E RIDGE IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER WEST OVER
STARK COUNTY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH AND LIFTING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE
APPEARS MINIMAL WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WILL
SEE THE LOWEST THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM DO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...THUS
SPREADING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND POPS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY GRANT COUNTY IN A THETA-E
RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE THETA-E RIDGE ADVANCES
SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
DETERMINING IF IT WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FIRST THING`S FIRST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY OVER SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ORGANIZING INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING INTO
ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS
AND ECMWF FORECASTS...A RETURN TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE VERY WET
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND IS ADVERTISED. LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
EXPECT A WARM WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C OR IN THE LOWER 20C
RANGE. SOME SUNSHINE UNDER THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT...KEEPING
A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KDIK...KISN AND POSSIBLY KBIS. KMOT
AND KJMS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO KMOT AND KBIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
DRIER NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MOVING INTO KISN AND KDIK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND POPS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY GRANT COUNTY IN A THETA-E
RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE THETA-E RIDGE ADVANCES
SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
DETERMINING IF IT WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FIRST THING`S FIRST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY OVER SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ORGANIZING INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING INTO
ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS
AND ECMWF FORECASTS...A RETURN TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE VERY WET
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND IS ADVERTISED. LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
EXPECT A WARM WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C OR IN THE LOWER 20C
RANGE. SOME SUNSHINE UNDER THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT...KEEPING
A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRIER NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MOVING
INTO KISN AND KDIK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT
KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
17 UTC TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR. AS A RESULT...
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. BAND OF ALTOCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINE FROM NEW ROCKFORD TO SOUTH OF WAHPETON...BUT NO ECHOES ON
RADAR YET. WILL KEEP 20 POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER HAS DISSIPATED AND/OR MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD. LATEST RAP
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR SHOWS SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND ALONG LOW-
LEVEL CAPE GRADIENT WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING UP TO 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK...BUT THERE IS A SHORT WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ND THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIFT FOR
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ADDED 20 POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...UPDATED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/SKY COVER/WINDS TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
WEAK ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY STORMS WHICH
PROPAGATE EAST WILL MEET WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS. SLOWED UP EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH POPS OTHERWISE FORECAST
OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WILL BE LOW END COVERAGE PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MONITORING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST
850MB SPEED CONVERGENCE. MOST MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION CAN GET IN QUESTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER MN/WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED AIRMASS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE SO WOULD EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE FA.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW END CHANCES ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW AND ADJUST IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STEADY WARM ADVECTION TODAY WITH SOUTH BREEZES AND WHILE
SOME CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY BE AROUND THIS MORNING
OVERALL SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE WORK INTO THE WESTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASING TO AN
INCH OR BETTER. MID LEVEL SUPPORT/SHEAR LOOKS WEAK AND NOT REALLY
SEEING MUCH FOR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OTHER THAN SOME WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB. ANY PCPN WHICH DEVELOPS TO
PROPAGATE NE SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW END POPS. COLUMN WARM
AND WITH SOME MIXING HOLDING UP OVERNIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
BRUNT OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY. COULD SEE SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS
AGAIN DESTABILIZES HOWEVER WITH LACK OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH CONVECTION
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SEEMS BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA.
FRONT CROSSES FA SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND THESE PERIODS LOOK LIKE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL BROAD BRUSH FA WITH LIKELY POPS AS MODELS HAVING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF FROPA. BASED ON CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER FA
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TEMPER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS DRY BUT BREEZY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL RE-ASSERT
ITSELF DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST.
THUS...AFTER PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 70S...IF NOT 80S FOR MID-WEEK. IF THIS RELATIVELY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN VERIFIES...LARGE SCALE FORCING WOULD BE WEAK
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...WHERE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE. ANY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO POCKETS OF CONVECTION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
ORIENTATION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUE-THU OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ND. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER THE DVL AREA..EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD
GFK AROUND 01Z. WILL PUT IN VCTS FOR BOTH SITES AND FAR FROM AROUND
00Z TO 06Z...WITH MOST CONFIDENCE AT DVL. ANY ACTION WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVER NW AND W
CNTRL MN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER HAS DISSIPATED AND/OR MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD. LATEST RAP
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR SHOWS SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND ALONG LOW-
LEVEL CAPE GRADIENT WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING UP TO 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK...BUT THERE IS A SHORT WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ND THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIFT FOR
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ADDED 20 POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...UPDATED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/SKY COVER/WINDS TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
WEAK ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY STORMS WHICH
PROPAGATE EAST WILL MEET WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS. SLOWED UP EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH POPS OTHERWISE FORECAST
OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WILL BE LOW END COVERAGE PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MONITORING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST
850MB SPEED CONVERGENCE. MOST MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION CAN GET IN QUESTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER MN/WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED AIRMASS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE SO WOULD EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE FA.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW END CHANCES ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW AND ADJUST IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STEADY WARM ADVECTION TODAY WITH SOUTH BREEZES AND WHILE
SOME CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY BE AROUND THIS MORNING
OVERALL SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE WORK INTO THE WESTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASING TO AN
INCH OR BETTER. MID LEVEL SUPPORT/SHEAR LOOKS WEAK AND NOT REALLY
SEEING MUCH FOR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OTHER THAN SOME WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB. ANY PCPN WHICH DEVELOPS TO
PROPAGATE NE SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW END POPS. COLUMN WARM
AND WITH SOME MIXING HOLDING UP OVERNIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
BRUNT OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY. COULD SEE SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS
AGAIN DESTABILIZES HOWEVER WITH LACK OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH CONVECTION
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SEEMS BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA.
FRONT CROSSES FA SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND THESE PERIODS LOOK LIKE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL BROAD BRUSH FA WITH LIKELY POPS AS MODELS HAVING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF FROPA. BASED ON CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER FA
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TEMPER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS DRY BUT BREEZY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL RE-ASSERT
ITSELF DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST.
THUS...AFTER PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 70S...IF NOT 80S FOR MID-WEEK. IF THIS RELATIVELY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN VERIFIES...LARGE SCALE FORCING WOULD BE WEAK
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...WHERE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE. ANY WEAKER
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO POCKETS OF CONVECTION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
ORIENTATION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUE-THU OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS TO AFFECT TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME SCT-
BKN MID CLOUD THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION. BY AFTERNOON EXPECT ONLY SCT CLOUDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. BEFORE DAYBREAK...THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MORE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHERE A BROADER ACCAS
FIELD IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH SMALL
HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
NEW MODEL RUNS OF RAP AND NAM SHOW SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
SHIFTED THE FOCUS ON THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDED CLOUDS ALSO TO THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING FLAT CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z NAM SHOWING
LIMITED POTENTIAL TO GROW WITH MID LEVEL WARM LAYER KEEPING THE
CONVECTION IN CHECK. THUS BELIEVE THE NAM SO FAR HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TRIMMED POPS BACK FOR THE
EVENING BUT DID KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WEAKER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAPPING AND
WEAK SHEAR WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL TONIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS WEAK WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE WELL INTO THE 50S. WE SHOULD ALSO BE A GOOD
4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER...THUS THE RISK OF STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE
GREATER AND THE SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL MINIMAL...WILL BE
GREATER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEGINNING MONDAY IN TERMS OF TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS VIA A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN AN INCH AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
INCLUDES DICKINSON...BISMARCK...AND JAMESTOWN. MAIN PLAYER IS AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NEVADA WHICH WILL EJECT A SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 12Z SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AS IT SLOWS UP AND SCOOTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FATTER
CAPE/LARGER AREA/POTENTIALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL RESIDE AT KISN
SOUTH TO KDIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEE
TEXT INDICATING A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND/OR CATEGORICAL IN SOME AREAS BASED ON
THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER/DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL NOSE INTO THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
APPEARS TO RESIDE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE POSSIBLE
TARGET AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN TAKES CONTROL BEHIND
SUNDAYS SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN SHIFTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE REDUCED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD PER WHAT THE ALLBLEND WAS
INDICATING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY ALLOWING
A LOW LEVEL MOISTENING TREND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL WITH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SEEING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KJMS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TIMING AND LOCATION AT OTHER TAF SITES ARE
UNCERTAIN THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH EXTRAORDINARY LIGHT SPRINKLES OBSERVED AT NWS
WILMINGTON...AND A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ON THE HRRR THAT LIGHT ECHOES
WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 4-8
HOURS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO OR THREE TIERS OF COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPEARING TO BE ON TRACK. WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THE FAR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SPLIT FLOW MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW
U.S. AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES. BAND OF NW MID LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. SFC COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND STALL OUT OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY WITH CLOUDS THINNING OUT LATE ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH DRIER AIR FILTER IN. READINGS TO
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS TO DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 NE TO THE MID 70S SW. IN DRY AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW EXPECT
FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDE A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BECOME CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ILN FA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE START TO SPILL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER AN
ERODING UPPER RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY WE MAY SEE A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND IN RELATION TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER HIGHS REACH THE 70S ON
SATURDAY...READINGS WILL RISE PRIMARILY INTO THE 80S SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG AND KLUK AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO THE LIGHT AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SPRINKLES LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
THINK ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 08-12Z...THEN SHIFT EAST.
THIS BAND WILL END WEST TO EAST 17-22Z. ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z...BUT EXACTLY WHAT LOCATIONS
GET AFFECTED REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT MENTION TS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
WILL GO WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BECOME MVFR BY 14Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 10Z...AND MAY GET AS FAR EAST AS
KSPS-KOKC. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
17-22Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOWERED LIKELY POPS INTO SLIGHT CATEGORY EARLIER FOR MOST AREAS
FOLLOWING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. STRONGEST CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS STATE LINE AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. RECENT RUNS OF HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FA.
BETTER FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. BETTER OPPORTUNITY OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL...AND FROM
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING THE MAIN SAFETY CONCERNS. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION SKIRTING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 HAVE NOT
RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST.
UPPER LOW PROGD TO BE OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER WEAKEN
AND LOITER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN GOING OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY WEEK ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN MODERATE CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AND WITH THIS
BEING ONE OF THE BIGGER OUTDOOR WEEKENDS...FOLKS NEED TO KEEP
THESE HAZARDS IN MIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 83 66 82 / 30 60 40 60
HOBART OK 63 80 64 81 / 50 60 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 84 65 83 / 40 60 60 60
GAGE OK 62 78 62 82 / 50 50 40 50
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 65 83 / 40 60 40 60
DURANT OK 67 86 67 83 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED LIKELY POPS INTO SLIGHT CATEGORY EARLIER FOR MOST AREAS
FOLLOWING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. STRONGEST CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS STATE LINE AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. RECENT RUNS OF HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FA.
BETTER FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. BETTER OPPORTUNITY OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...
AND KPNC THROUGH 01-03Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 05-18Z.
WENT WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING
MVFR BY 10Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
06-16Z... BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL...AND FROM
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING THE MAIN SAFETY CONCERNS. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION SKIRTING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 HAVE NOT
RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST.
UPPER LOW PROGD TO BE OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER WEAKEN
AND LOITER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN GOING OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY WEEK ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN MODERATE CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AND WITH THIS
BEING ONE OF THE BIGGER OUTDOOR WEEKENDS...FOLKS NEED TO KEEP
THESE HAZARDS IN MIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 83 66 82 / 30 60 40 60
HOBART OK 63 80 64 81 / 50 60 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 84 65 83 / 40 60 60 60
GAGE OK 62 78 62 82 / 50 50 40 50
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 65 83 / 40 60 40 60
DURANT OK 67 86 67 83 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
227 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS... PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED ACROSS FAR WRN OK OVERNIGHT...
PRIMARILY DUE TO A MESOHIGH THAT CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS NWRN
OK/SWRN KS THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS... BUT SOME LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH... GUSTING TO 20 MPH. GUIDANCE FROM
THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING... WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS.
ADJUSTED POPS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS... LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS W TX AND ACROSS WRN
OK THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK... BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN OBS TREND.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED.
ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT KWWR AND KGAG FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL KEEP VCSH MENTION AT THESE SITES.
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA 15-21Z...THE CONTINUE AFTER 21Z. WILL KEEP
VCSH MENTION FOR NOW THINKING MOST ACTIVITY WILL
NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER.
IF A SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE...BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
AFTER 08Z...AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THAT FORMED ON THE OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. IT HAS LEFT A
COMPLICATED PATTERN OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLES IS IN
QUESTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE WIND
FIELD WILL AFFECT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ESTIMATES OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.
FURTHER UPDATES ARE PROBABLE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
STORM ARE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WHILE STORMS TO THE WEST MAKE SOME PROGRESS TO
THE EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (HRRR).
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS STILL ON TRACK
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
WHICH WILL HELP MOVE THE LOW EASTWARD. OVERALL...THE TIMING OF
RAIN AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.
HOWEVER...WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE OVERALL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE THE
FA. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SOME HAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 66 85 65 / 30 30 40 30
HOBART OK 80 64 85 66 / 60 30 40 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 66 88 67 / 40 30 30 30
GAGE OK 78 61 82 64 / 60 30 50 60
PONCA CITY OK 84 65 82 66 / 30 50 40 30
DURANT OK 85 66 85 66 / 10 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER GEORGIA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BE BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATM REMAINS UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH A
PLUME OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS 2500 JOULES ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA...PER 20Z MESOANALYSIS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FURTHER INITIATION TO THE WEST ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY PAST/PRESENT CONVECTION...SPECIFICALLY
WEST OF I26 IN SC/GA WHERE CU FIELD REMAINS PREVALENT.
THUS...INCREASED POPS DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAIL REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE REPORTS OF
QUARTER TO TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO WATCH BOX AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY BENIGN ATTM WITH
MAINLY SCT CU OVER SOME OF THE MTNS AND WRN UPSTATE. UNDER STILL
BRISK MID-UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...MTN WAVE CIRRUS CONTINUE TO KEEP
MCLDY SKIES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. THESE AREAS WERE
HIT PRETTY HARD WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE TSTM CLUSTER THIS MORNING AND
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN KEPT STABLE BY THIS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
CIRRUS. S AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLATED TSRA ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WHERE 1500-2000 J OF UNCAPPED SBCAPE IS SHOWN ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS. INDEED A COUPLE OF CELLS ARE STARTING TO GO UP OVER
PICKENS COUNTY. THE 12Z NCEP HIRES WINDOW RUNS REINFORCE SUGGESTIONS
OF NUMEROUS HRRR AND RAP RUNS THAT ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL KICK OFF IN
THE SMOKIES AND IN THE UPSTATE EAST OF SPARTANBURG. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KT...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...STORMS WILL BE
QUITE CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND/HAIL. SVR WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR THE SRN
TIER OF THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS...THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THRU TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO PUSH SWD THRU
MOST OF THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK...PUSHING THROUGH THE
ERN SC PIEDMONT THEREAFTER. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE GULF STATES...THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FULLY
IMPACT THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES TO THE POINT THAT
ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEFTY SBCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WEST OF
GSP...BUT SREF PROBS SUGGEST VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL NOT GET THIS
HIGH. I WILL INCLUDE A SCHC FOR DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AND AREAS JUST SOUTH WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
SUGGESTED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
BUT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MEANING WE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BUT THAT HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE A BIT AS
THE TROF OFF THE EAST COAST DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MIGRATE FROM THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY REGION TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. ONCE
THIS HAPPENS...WE CAN EXPECT SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THAT WILL PUT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GEORGIA BACK INTO A REGIME WHERE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WERE LIMITED TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY OWING TO THE LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE NAM...BUT THEN WERE ALLOWED TO GO UP TO A
CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WERE INCREMENTALLY BETTER. TEMPS WILL CREEP UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...
AND THEN RISE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER FOR MONDAY...AROUND 80 IN THE
MTN VALLEYS AND MIDDLE 80S E OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND AN EMBEDDED H5 LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND REMAIN OVER THAT
REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLUTION OVER OUR REGION...WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIG CHANGES THRU DAY
7 WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SLY FLOW WITH A TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. EARLY IN THE DAY...A FAIRLY
ROBUST LOW DEEPENS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS A
SWATH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW WILL MAKE WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS. I WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TIME BEING AND THUS I DONT EXPECT THE COOLER/DRIER AIR TO PENETRATE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND INTO
THE REGION...HOWEVER ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ONCE IT MAKES TO THE CAROLINAS.
AT ANY RATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE SENSIBLE FCST. I
DID INCREASE POPS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SOLID CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TS FOR WED AND THURS. OTHERWISE...I
CARRY A SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR SH AND TS EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY THREAT OF SVR OR WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY AND GRADUALLY DROP THRU THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION WHICH MOVED THRU THIS MORNING AND
LEFT BEHIND COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...THREAT OF TSRA THIS AFTN
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MITIGATED TO THE POINT THAT A TEMPO IS NO
LONGER WARRANTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE A
STORM COULD AFFECT THE FIELD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. A
FEW LOW VFR CU ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ANY RATE. GENERALLY NW WINDS
WILL PRECEDE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
BRING WINDS N TO NNE AND VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES. PROFILES LOOK
UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH LLVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN IN THE MTNS OF SW
NC...SC AND GA...AS WELL AS IN THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. THE
TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD NOT PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS GO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. SHOULD REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR FOG EXCEPT PERHAPS IN MTN VALLEYS. THE FRONT MAY HANG UP
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND CAUSE WINDS TO RETURN TO SW AFTER
DAYBREAK AT KAND/KGMU/KGSP. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW SO NO MENTION
WAS MADE IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. VERY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE SAT/SUN AFTNS. AFTN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER GEORGIA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BE BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY BENIGN ATTM WITH
MAINLY SCT CU OVER SOME OF THE MTNS AND WRN UPSTATE. UNDER STILL
BRISK MID-UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...MTN WAVE CIRRUS CONTINUE TO KEEP
MCLDY SKIES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. THESE AREAS WERE
HIT PRETTY HARD WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE TSTM CLUSTER THIS MORNING AND
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN KEPT STABLE BY THIS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
CIRRUS. S AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLATED TSRA ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WHERE 1500-2000 J OF UNCAPPED SBCAPE IS SHOWN ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS. INDEED A COUPLE OF CELLS ARE STARTING TO GO UP OVER
PICKENS COUNTY. THE 12Z NCEP HIRES WINDOW RUNS REINFORCE SUGGESTIONS
OF NUMEROUS HRRR AND RAP RUNS THAT ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL KICK OFF IN
THE SMOKIES AND IN THE UPSTATE EAST OF SPARTANBURG. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KT...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...STORMS WILL BE
QUITE CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND/HAIL. SVR WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR THE SRN
TIER OF THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS...THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THRU TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO PUSH SWD THRU
MOST OF THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK...PUSHING THROUGH THE
ERN SC PIEDMONT THEREAFTER. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE GULF STATES...THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FULLY
IMPACT THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES TO THE POINT THAT
ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEFTY SBCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WEST OF
GSP...BUT SREF PROBS SUGGEST VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL NOT GET THIS
HIGH. I WILL INCLUDE A SCHC FOR DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AND AREAS JUST SOUTH WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
SUGGESTED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
BUT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MEANING WE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BUT THAT HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE A BIT AS
THE TROF OFF THE EAST COAST DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MIGRATE FROM THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY REGION TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. ONCE
THIS HAPPENS...WE CAN EXPECT SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THAT WILL PUT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GEORGIA BACK INTO A REGIME WHERE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES WERE LIMITED TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY OWING TO THE LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE NAM...BUT THEN WERE ALLOWED TO GO UP TO A
CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WERE INCREMENTALLY BETTER. TEMPS WILL CREEP UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...
AND THEN RISE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER FOR MONDAY...AROUND 80 IN THE
MTN VALLEYS AND MIDDLE 80S E OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND AN EMBEDDED H5 LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND REMAIN OVER THAT
REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLUTION OVER OUR REGION...WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIG CHANGES THRU DAY
7 WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SLY FLOW WITH A TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. EARLY IN THE DAY...A FAIRLY
ROBUST LOW DEEPENS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS A
SWATH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW WILL MAKE WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS. I WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TIME BEING AND THUS I DONT EXPECT THE COOLER/DRIER AIR TO PENETRATE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND INTO
THE REGION...HOWEVER ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ONCE IT MAKES TO THE CAROLINAS.
AT ANY RATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE SENSIBLE FCST. I
DID INCREASE POPS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SOLID CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TS FOR WED AND THURS. OTHERWISE...I
CARRY A SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR SH AND TS EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY THREAT OF SVR OR WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY AND GRADUALLY DROP THRU THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION WHICH MOVED THRU THIS MORNING AND
LEFT BEHIND COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...THREAT OF TSRA THIS AFTN
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MITIGATED TO THE POINT THAT A TEMPO IS NO
LONGER WARRANTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE A
STORM COULD AFFECT THE FIELD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. A
FEW LOW VFR CU ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ANY RATE. GENERALLY NW WINDS
WILL PRECEDE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
BRING WINDS N TO NNE AND VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES. PROFILES LOOK
UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH LLVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN IN THE MTNS OF SW
NC...SC AND GA...AS WELL AS IN THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. THE
TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD NOT PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS GO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. SHOULD REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR FOG EXCEPT PERHAPS IN MTN VALLEYS. THE FRONT MAY HANG UP
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND CAUSE WINDS TO RETURN TO SW AFTER
DAYBREAK AT KAND/KGMU/KGSP. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW SO NO MENTION
WAS MADE IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. VERY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE SAT/SUN AFTNS. AFTN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND THEN STALL OVER GEORGIA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT...CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL ATTM WITH ONLY SCT CU
OVER SOME OF THE MTNS AND WRN UPSTATE. UNDER STILL BRISK MID-UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW...MTN WAVE CIRRUS CONTINUE TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES OVER
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. THESE AREAS WERE HIT PRETTY HARD
WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE TSTM CLUSTER THIS MORNING AND APPEAR TO HAVE
BEEN KEPT STABLE BY THIS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CIRRUS. S AND W OF
THIS AREA WE STILL ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY TO GET GOING
DURING THE AFTN...WHERE 1500-2000 J OF UNCAPPED SBCAPE IS SHOWN ON
SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE 12Z NCEP HIRES WINDOW RUNS JUST ARRIVED AND
REINFORCE SUGGESTIONS OF NUMEROUS HRRR AND RAP RUNS THAT ISOLD
ACTIVITY WILL KICK OFF IN THE SMOKIES AND IN THE UPSTATE EAST OF
SPARTANBURG. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG...STORMS WILL BE QUITE CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND/HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THRU TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO PUSH SWD THRU
MOST OF THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK...PUSHING THROUGH THE
ERN SC PIEDMONT THEREAFTER. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE GULF STATES...THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FULLY
IMPACT THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES TO THE POINT THAT
ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEFTY SBCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WEST OF
GSP...BUT SREF PROBS SUGGEST VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL NOT GET THIS
HIGH. I WILL INCLUDE A SCHC FOR DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AND AREAS JUST SOUTH WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
SUGGESTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...A SEMI PERSISTENT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID
SOUTH AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION SAT THROUGH MON. SOME DEGREE OF DRYING SHOULD SETTLE IN
FROM THE N ON SAT AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SW SECTIONS...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH NEAR THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA WILL PROVIDE WEAK
FORCING. THIS MAY TRIGGER MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BETTER COVERAGE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTN
AS INSTABILITY REBOUNDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND AN EMBEDDED H5 LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND REMAIN OVER THAT
REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLUTION OVER OUR REGION...WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIG CHANGES THRU DAY
7 WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SLY FLOW WITH A TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. EARLY IN THE DAY...A FAIRLY
ROBUST LOW DEEPENS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS A
SWATH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW WILL MAKE WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT
QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS. I WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TIME BEING AND THUS I DONT EXPECT THE COOLER/DRIER AIR TO PENETRATE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND INTO
THE REGION...HOWEVER ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ONCE IT MAKES TO THE CAROLINAS.
AT ANY RATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE SENSIBLE FCST. I
DID INCREASE POPS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SOLID CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TS FOR WED AND THURS. OTHERWISE...I
CARRY A SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR SH AND TS EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY THREAT OF SVR OR WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY AND GRADUALLY DROP THRU THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION WHICH MOVED THRU THIS MORNING AND
LEFT BEHIND COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...THREAT OF TSRA THIS AFTN
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MITIGATED TO THE POINT THAT A TEMPO IS NO
LONGER WARRANTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE A
STORM COULD AFFECT THE FIELD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. A
FEW LOW VFR CU ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ANY RATE. GENERALLY NW WINDS
WILL PRECEDE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
BRING WINDS N TO NNE AND VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES. PROFILES LOOK
UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH LLVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN IN THE MTNS OF SW
NC...SC AND GA...AS WELL AS IN THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. THE
TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD NOT PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS GO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. SHOULD REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR FOG EXCEPT PERHAPS IN MTN VALLEYS. THE FRONT MAY HANG UP
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND CAUSE WINDS TO RETURN TO SW AFTER
DAYBREAK AT KAND/KGMU/KGSP. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW SO NO MENTION
WAS MADE IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. VERY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE SAT/SUN AFTNS. AFTN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
758 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH AND WEST OF GREGORY COUNTY SO
HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF STRATUS FORMING
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
REACH SIOUX CITY BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AND THEN REACH SIOUX FALLS AND
I-90 BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. AHEAD OF THESE CLOUDS...THE AIR IS
FAIRLY DRY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP MORE
BUT THINKING THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 50S. SO
DECIDED TO NOT CHANGE LOWS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ALL MODELS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT WITH NO REAL
INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A CHANCE
OF DRIZZLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34 AND HIGHWAY 30 IN SD/MN. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG BUT FOR
NOW AM THINKING THAT THE VISIBILITIES WILL STAY ABOVE 3 SM SO WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP SHOULD BE AVAILABLE BY 0115Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FAIRLY DISTINCT TRAJECTORIES AT LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SURFACE MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY WEST...AND A SHARP CUTOFF TO 40S DEWPOINTS JUST
EASTWARD...ALL WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SURFACE THERMAL FIELD.
HAVE FINALLY SEEN A LITTLE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION WITH AN
ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN FORCING
EXPECTED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SOME RANDOM DIURNALLY
FAVORED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER INTO VERY EARLY EVENING WITHIN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED. MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AS WAS PRESENT LAST NIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS STRATUS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO BURN OFF...BUT SHOULD DO
SO AS HAS TODAY...BUT JUST A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD IMPACT THE
DIURNAL TREND...SLOWING UP WARMING THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING.
POSSIBLE THAT LOWER CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY END UP A BIT WEST OF MODEL
EXPECTATIONS...AS ADVANCING MOISTURE AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER TRAJECTORY TO THE EAST.
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE DOES WORK UP TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST IOWA BY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT A LITTLE BOOST TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
THETA E ADVECTION THROUGH 700 HPA. PRETTY SUBTLE...SO NOT EXPECTING
A GREAT COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THIS FORCING
IS LESS...AND FORCING TOWARD JET LEVEL IS PRACTICALLY NONEXISTENT IN
ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WANDERING WELL TO THE SOUTH... AND
STRONGER WESTERLIES TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. HARDLY A REAL
BOUNDARY TO BE FOUND...SO FRONTAL FORCING NOT A CONTRIBUTOR TO LIFT.
THEREFORE...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...SOMEWHAT DELAYED
SPREADING NORTHWARD...AND HEIGHTENED MORE SO AT TIME OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPEARS WEAKER/FARTHER NORTH THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS LEADS TO BOUNDARY BEING SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND EVEN SLOWER TO SAG
SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WITH THIS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
THOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK WAVE MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA. LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY LATE MONDAY ACTIVITY APPEARS
PRETTY LOW.
WILL HANG ONTO MAINLY LOW POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH FLOW AROUND THE
BOUNDARY NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT AND MODELS DIVERGING ON SPEED AT
WHICH THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION IF AT ALL. SO ASIDE
FROM SOMEWHAT BETTER DIURNAL POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
NORTHEAST...WILL HOLD POPS IN 20-30 RANGE. CHANCES WANE FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WEAKENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT. MODELS AGAIN ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL BRING SOME LOW POPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE
OF NORMAL...AND GENERALLY FAVORED LARGER DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN THE
CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN...LEANING TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR DAILY HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD
THEN MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE DO SEE
THIS REDUCTION IN CIGS ALTHOUGH EXACT HEIGHT IS UNCERTAIN. WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE COMING IN PRETTY LOW...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN AN IFR
TEMPO GROUP. BASED ON HRRR AND RAP...DID GO AHEAD AND SLOW DOWN
TIMING OF THE STRATUS INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 11Z. STRATUS SHOULD
SLOWLY BEGIN LIFTING BY MID MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DRY TAFS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE. BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FAIRLY DISTINCT TRAJECTORIES AT LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SURFACE MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY WEST...AND A SHARP CUTOFF TO 40S DEWPOINTS JUST
EASTWARD...ALL WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SURFACE THERMAL FIELD.
HAVE FINALLY SEEN A LITTLE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION WITH AN
ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN FORCING
EXPECTED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SOME RANDOM DIURNALLY
FAVORED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER INTO VERY EARLY EVENING WITHIN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED. MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET...BUT MODEL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AS WAS PRESENT LAST NIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS STRATUS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO BURN OFF...BUT SHOULD DO
SO AS HAS TODAY...BUT JUST A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD IMPACT THE
DIURNAL TREND...SLOWING UP WARMING THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING.
POSSIBLE THAT LOWER CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY END UP A BIT WEST OF MODEL
EXPECTATIONS...AS ADVANCING MOISTURE AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER TRAJECTORY TO THE EAST.
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE DOES WORK UP TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST IOWA BY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT A LITTLE BOOST TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
THETA E ADVECTION THROUGH 700 HPA. PRETTY SUBTLE...SO NOT EXPECTING
A GREAT COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THIS FORCING
IS LESS...AND FORCING TOWARD JET LEVEL IS PRACTICALLY NONEXISTENT IN
ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WANDERING WELL TO THE SOUTH... AND
STRONGER WESTERLIES TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. HARDLY A REAL
BOUNDARY TO BE FOUND...SO FRONTAL FORCING NOT A CONTRIBUTOR TO LIFT.
THEREFORE...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...SOMEWHAT DELAYED
SPREADING NORTHWARD...AND HEIGHTENED MORE SO AT TIME OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPEARS WEAKER/FARTHER NORTH THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS LEADS TO BOUNDARY BEING SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND EVEN SLOWER TO SAG
SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WITH THIS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
THOUGH WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK WAVE MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA. LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY LATE MONDAY ACTIVITY APPEARS
PRETTY LOW.
WILL HANG ONTO MAINLY LOW POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH FLOW AROUND THE
BOUNDARY NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT AND MODELS DIVERGING ON SPEED AT
WHICH THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION IF AT ALL. SO ASIDE
FROM SOMEWHAT BETTER DIURNAL POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
NORTHEAST...WILL HOLD POPS IN 20-30 RANGE. CHANCES WANE FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WEAKENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT. MODELS AGAIN ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL BRING SOME LOW POPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE
OF NORMAL...AND GENERALLY FAVORED LARGER DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN THE
CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN...LEANING TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR DAILY HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD
THEN MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE DO SEE
THIS REDUCTION IN CIGS ALTHOUGH EXACT HEIGHT IS UNCERTAIN. WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE COMING IN PRETTY LOW...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN AN IFR
TEMPO GROUP. BASED ON HRRR AND RAP...DID GO AHEAD AND SLOW DOWN
TIMING OF THE STRATUS INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 11Z. STRATUS SHOULD
SLOWLY BEGIN LIFTING BY MID MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DRY TAFS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE. BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1033 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
CONVECTION OVER NERN WY IS MOSTLY LOCATED NEAR THE MT BORDER...AND
IS DIMINISHING SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER THAT AREA ACCORDINGLY.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
GIVEN ENERGY PROPAGATING NWD FROM NERN CO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
RAISED POPS FOR NERN WY AND AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE BLKHLS
FOR THIS EVE BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA...WITH
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER WEAK CAP AND LACK OF FORCING HAS
KEPT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. MARGINAL
SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. MAIN
THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SIMILAR SETUP ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WYOMING/WESTERN
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGER FORCING...MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR A LITTLE
STRONGER...SO A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS POSSIBLE. SLOW MOVEMENT AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF A PERSISTENT TROF/CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
UPPER LOW AS IT FINALLY MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PCPN
SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PCPN COULD INCREASE AGAIN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS...60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON THE SD
PLAINS...WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTN...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFR VSBYS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1046 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AM STORMS
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE GA BORDER. THE RUC AND HRRR DEVELOP
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AROUND 19Z. THE CAP IN
THAT AREA IS WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS ALSO
MUCH LESS CAPE TODAY...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS
ON TRACK...WITH NO POPS FROM KNOXVILLE NORTH WHERE STABILITY IS
GREATER. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AS WELL...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THERE FOR THIS MORNING.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS HAIL CAPE GOOD ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL. ALSO DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND WINDS ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 62 85 60 / 30 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 57 82 56 / 20 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 56 82 54 / 20 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 48 80 47 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
342 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. VERY
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TODAY. HRRR MODEL
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY...SO HAVE UP POPS
TO 30 PERCENT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN WITH CAPES OF 2500-3000
J/KG. ALSO FAVORABLE HAIL CAPES FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL OF
MICROBURSTS DUE TO DRY MID-LEVELS. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE THREAT
WITHIN THE HWO AND WILL INCLUDE IN GRAPHICAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
AND END TO CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA ENJOYS A
PERIOD OF RIDGING TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
LOSE INFLUENCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES A MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND BY MID WEEK BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER
OF THE NATION. IN THIS CONFIGURATION PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL DROP THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE EPISODES IN THE VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID...SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. STAYED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 62 85 60 / 30 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 57 82 56 / 20 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 56 82 54 / 20 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 48 80 47 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
BR CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL TERMINAL THIS MORNING AS
YESTERDAYS STORMS HAVE MOISTENED THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SPORADICALLY AT KCSV AND MVFR AT KBNA
AND KCSV. VCTS WILL BE RETURNING BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON AGAIN
TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED REMAINDER OF COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS ALL CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA. RADAR INDICATES OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DOVER TO JUST
NORTH OF NASHVILLE TO NEAR SPENCER...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUES ALONG BOUNDARY FROM CLARKSVILLE
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN KY AND MO. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD YET STILL FORM THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST.
INDEED...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
SE MO ATTM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF A ERIN TO ALTAMONT LINE. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREA DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS...BUT FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE
RAIN COOLED AIR HAS SATURATED THE BL. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND LOWS
FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
UPDATE...
ONE LONE CELL EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE DOVER AREA BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING. ELSEWHERE...STILL A FEW RESIDUAL TSTMS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU BUT THEY TOO HAVE WEAKENED. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN
ELEVATED BUT OVERALL FORCING LEVELS HAVE LESSENED.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REMOVE THE WATCH FROM AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH ACROSS THE PLATEAU TO CONTINUE
FOR A LITTLE LONGER. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
AND WILL LOWER POPS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL EFFECT PRIMARILY
THE CSV AREA THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT
ARE MUCH LOWER. BUT...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE TERMINAL AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT. OTW...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG TOWARD 12Z. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AFT 14Z OR SO. ISOL CONVECTION WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL KY IN A W-E FASHION. IT IS
ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE THE ADDED FORCING HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE
CAP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. MAY LIKELY INCLUDE A PRE 1ST PERIOD ZONE
GROUP AS THE EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NW ZONES. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS...THE CONVECTION COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MUCH OF
THE MID STATE IS STILL UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AND THAT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 10 PM. DEW POINTS HAVE SLOWLY RISEN
DURING THE DAY SO THE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER...WE ARE PICKING UP SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ITS FURTHER NORTH...NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE
THE FORCING RESIDES. CAPES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND OR HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...POPS WILL BE KEPT WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
NO POPS FAR SOUTHWEST.
ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL AGAIN DIMINISH TOWARD 18Z WITH ENHANCED CAPE
VALUES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT. WILL AGAIN INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ON SATURDAY...SFC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL PREVAIL WITH A NE SFC FLOW.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RUN AT US AS WELL.
BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
SUPPORT POPS.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE TIME HEIGHT
PROFILES TENDS TO SUPPORT GOING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MINS.
OTW...GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...A SMALL SCALE BUT APPARENT UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS HINTS TOWARD A FEW
DEVELOPMENTAL BOUNDARIES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. AFTERNOON CAPES ARE
IN PLACE EACH DAY WITH CAPS DIMINISHING TOWARD 18Z. UPPER LEVEL AND
MOISTURE COMPONENTS NOT IN SUPPORT OF ANY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
WEAK FEATURES BUT A SUSTAINED UNSTABLE PATTERN EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
OPT TO CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POP CHANCES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
553 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE OVER SE TX
THIS EVENING. MODELS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS THINGS MAINLY VFR
THROUGH 12Z WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12-16Z SAT
MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED SAT AFTN/EVENING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN TROF MAKING SLOW BUT GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DOING SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREA WX SHOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME THRU THE WEEKEND AND WE`LL MOSTLY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR
SITUATED TO OUR EAST. BUT AS THE TROF MAKES FURTHER EWD THEN SEWD
PROGRESS (OK/TX PANHANDLE MON, OK TUE, TEXARKANA WED, TX/LA BORDER
THURS) EXPECT PW`S TO CLIMB AND THE REGION TO FALL MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROF. ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED MORE TO THE GFS
SOLN FOR A CHANGE AND THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES IT LOOKS LIKE SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE A
DAILY POSSIBILITY INLAND - MORE ISOLATED COAST MON AFTN AND BEYOND.
THOUGH IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF COULD REMAIN TRIGGERS AT
ANY TIME, BASED ON TIMING & LOOKS OF QPF FIELDS MOST LOOKS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN W/ DAYTIME HEATING & SEABREEZE BEING PRIMARY TRIGGERS. NUDGED
POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS N-NE 2/3 OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK. WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO CONTINUE TWEAKING UP WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY/CONFIDENCE IN
THE DAYS TO COME.
REGARDING TONIGHT`S CAMELOPARDALIDS METEOR SHOWER:
EXPECT VARIABLE PERIODS OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE`RE NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS MUCH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO
OUR WEST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT SO DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE AS THICK
AND MAY QUITE POSSIBLY SEE SOME BREAKS. NASA WEBSITE SAYS PEAK
VIEWING WILL BE BETWEEN 1-3 AM CDT, BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE & AFTER THOSE TIMES IF CLOUD COVER COOPERATES.
47
CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MAY AT THE FIRST-ORDER CLIMATE SITES
CONTINUED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH YESTERDAY...MAY 22ND. IF THIS
TREND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEEN RECORDED FOR 8 MONTHS IN A ROW
AT COLLEGE STATION AND THE CITY OF HOUSTON...AND FOR 7 MONTHS IN A
ROW AT BOTH THE CITY OF GALVESTON AND HOBBY AIRPORT. THE LAST TIME
HOUSTON RECORDED EIGHT CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WAS JUN 1975 THROUGH JAN 1976.
HERE ARE THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR OCTOBER 2013
THROUGH APRIL 2014 AND FOR MAY 1ST THROUGH 22ND...
SITE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 1-22
IAH -0.2 -4.2 -3.0 -3.6 -1.7 -3.9 -0.1 -2.7
GLS +0.4 -4.1 -4.0 -3.2 -3.2 -3.3 -0.7 -2.7
CLL -0.2 -4.3 -3.7 -3.4 -2.5 -4.6 -0.3 -2.7
HOU +0.5 -3.8 -2.9 -3.0 -1.4 -3.4 -0.2 -3.1
40
MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS TO THE WEST. AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN ON
MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 87 68 86 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 87 69 86 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 850MB COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM NEAR THE VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR FORECAST MODEL HAS
BEEN HANDLING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL GO
WITH ITS CALL FOR THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF NOON INDICATES THE CIRRUS MAY
FINALLY BE ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE
A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT FOR SOLID
SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE THERE. SINCE TEMPERATURES ALSO CAME
DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS SHOWER ACTIVITY PASSED ACROSS THERE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S IN
THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK TO REACH THE HIGHS FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEAK/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT BUT
THE CENTER WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF CIRRUS AND PERHAPS
SOME LOW CLOUDS SPILLING BACK SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES DOWN ON THE BACK OF THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SE WV LATE AND POSSIBLY THE
EXTREME NORTH GIVEN MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER GIVEN
DRY AIR WILL ONLY INCLUDE MORE CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NW AT THIS
POINT. EXPECT A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT BUT
LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE VALLEYS FROM DECOUPLING AND DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 40S. ELSW WILL GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ESPCLY
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE LIKELY TO STAY CLOSE TO IF NOT ABOVE 50 FOR
LOWS WITH A LIGHT BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKING GOOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE
OVERHEAD PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
COOL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
THE SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER COMPARED TO
GFS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
ADVERTISE ANY POPS IN THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. USED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR LOWS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS
FROM AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
A VERY TYPICAL MEMORIAL DAY EXPECTED...AS THE RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE
ECWMF AND GFS INDICATED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEANED TEMPERATURES MONDAY TOWARDS HPCGUIDE
WITH HIGHS FROM MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL DRAPE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FUELED BY DIURNAL HEATING
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO EMPHASIZE THE
WESTERN BLUE RIDGE FOR THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE
TO SEE SOME STORMS SPILL OVER TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AREAWIDE PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE 850MB COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...OBSERVING FEW TO SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 15KT TO 20KT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AS IT PROGRESSES. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES UNDER PASSING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE...
DROPPING SPEEDS TO 3KT TO 5KT. MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY AT KLWB...WHICH WILL LOCALLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM
OR LESS. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KLYH
BUT GIVEN LOWERING DEWPOINTS/DRYING...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION AT
THESE SPOTS FOR NOW. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 13Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG AT
KLWB/KLYH/KBCB. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS/PW
AVIATION...JH/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 850MB COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM NEAR THE VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR FORECAST MODEL HAS
BEEN HANDLING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL GO
WITH ITS CALL FOR THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF NOON INDICATES THE CIRRUS MAY
FINALLY BE ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE
A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT FOR SOLID
SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE THERE. SINCE TEMPERATURES ALSO CAME
DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS SHOWER ACTIVITY PASSED ACROSS THERE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S IN
THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK TO REACH THE HIGHS FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEAK/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT BUT
THE CENTER WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF CIRRUS AND PERHAPS
SOME LOW CLOUDS SPILLING BACK SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES DOWN ON THE BACK OF THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SE WV LATE AND POSSIBLY THE
EXTREME NORTH GIVEN MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER GIVEN
DRY AIR WILL ONLY INCLUDE MORE CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NW AT THIS
POINT. EXPECT A WEAK GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT BUT
LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE VALLEYS FROM DECOUPLING AND DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 40S. ELSW WILL GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ESPCLY
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE LIKELY TO STAY CLOSE TO IF NOT ABOVE 50 FOR
LOWS WITH A LIGHT BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKING GOOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE
OVERHEAD PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
COOL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
THE SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER COMPARED TO
GFS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
ADVERTISE ANY POPS IN THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. USED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR LOWS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS
FROM AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
A VERY TYPICAL MEMORIAL DAY EXPECTED...AS THE RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE
ECWMF AND GFS INDICATED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEANED TEMPERATURES MONDAY TOWARDS HPCGUIDE
WITH HIGHS FROM MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL DRAPE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FUELED BY DIURNAL HEATING
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO EMPHASIZE THE
WESTERN BLUE RIDGE FOR THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE
TO SEE SOME STORMS SPILL OVER TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ATTM
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO THE KBLF/KBCB CORRIDOR EARLY. OTRW NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM EASTERN TN SHOULD MISS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH MUCH THIS PRECIP MOSTLY AFFECTING
SPOTS FROM KMKJ TO KTNB IF AT ALL. THIS FEATURE MAY ACT TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KBLF THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE AROUND KLWB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT ANY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR WITH ONLY SCTD CU AND RESIDUAL HIGH/MID
CLOUDS AFTER 14-15Z WITH ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON IN
STORE...UNDER WEST/NW WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KLWB LATE AS
LOW CLOUDS SPIN BACK SOUTH AND DENSE FOG/STRATUS TAKE SHAPE IF
A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING IS SEEN OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBCB AND PERHAPS KLYH BUT GIVEN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS/DRYING LEAVING OUT MENTION AT THESE SPOTS FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG AT
KLWB/KLYH/KBCB. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE TUESDAY...ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS/PW
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT IT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TRYING TO PLOW INTO
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
IS SENDING AN ARCING AREA OF CIRRUS INTO WISCONSIN. OTHER MIDDLE
CLOUD COVER INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MODELS PROJECT THE 850-700MB
MOISTURE RETURN TO BYPASS THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA COULD SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER AREA OF CIRRUS WILL ALSO PUSH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT TOO.
SO INCREASED SKY COVER INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. BUT BY AND
LARGE...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. HIGHER PWATS WILL ALSO BE
ROTATING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO A FEW FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE PRIMARY ISSUE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE BRINGING VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TO SOME
DEGREE AS A NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DECREASE HEIGHTS A TAD...BUT OVERALL
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT PCPN CHANCES WILL BE PEPPERED OVER THE REGION
DUE TO SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING GROUND A BIT
LONGER. PROGS SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR OVER MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. DID
NOT WANT TO GO COMPLETELY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
AREAS DUE TO WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL THE SURFACE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE WITH THE FRONT BUT
WITH LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AIDED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MORE OF SUMMER TYPE WITH CONVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT OBSERVED...A BLEND OF THE
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS THE
OUTLIER WITH A DRIER FORECAST AND DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE A DRIER PERIOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NUDGING SOUTHWARD AND
THE UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASING AGAIN. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY
AGAIN ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO AGAIN A SIMILAR SITUATION DEVELOPING
WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. GFS IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN INTO SATURDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
TOTAL TOTALS CLIMB TO THE MID OR UPPER 40S MONDAY AND DO NOT
EXCEED THOSE NUMBERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEST CAPE NUMBERS ALSO
FOCUSED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR MOST LIKELY
PERIODS OF CONVECTION. PWATS CLIMB TO TO 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT UNDER THE RIDGE...ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY LOCALIZED RAINFALL.
WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE NEARSHORE AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE FRONT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
QUIET WX WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SFC HIGH
LINGERS ACRS THE AREA. HIGH WL BEGIN TO EDGE E BY LATE TOMORROW...
ALLOWING INCRG CLDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHC OF SHRA BY LATE TOMORROW
NGT OR MON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
542 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
LOOKING OUTSIDE THE REGION...MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS ENTERING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE THETAE ADVECTION ZONE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT WHILE STUCK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO CLEAR ELSEWHERE. STUCK WITH THE BETTER VERIFYING BC GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE...BUT
THE COOLEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU IN THIS AREA AND
SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TOO. THIS SHOULD NOT STOP
925MB TEMPS FROM WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WHICH WOULD
PLACE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MEMORIAL DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WHICH RESULTS IN CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. WINDS
ALOFT ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT THAT
COLD. SO WE MAY HAVE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
BUT SEVERE STORMS NOT LIKELY AT THIS POINT. A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER RIDGE GETS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A BIG SURFACE HIGH DROPS DOWN FROM ICE COVERED
HUDSON`S BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD PRODUCE A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
QUIET WX WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SFC HIGH
LINGERS ACRS THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
LOOKING OUTSIDE THE REGION...MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS ENTERING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE THETAE ADVECTION ZONE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT WHILE STUCK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO CLEAR ELSEWHERE. STUCK WITH THE BETTER VERIFYING BC GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE...BUT
THE COOLEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CU IN THIS AREA AND
SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TOO. THIS SHOULD NOT STOP
925MB TEMPS FROM WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WHICH WOULD
PLACE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MEMORIAL DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WHICH RESULTS IN CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. WINDS
ALOFT ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT THAT
COLD. SO WE MAY HAVE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
BUT SEVERE STORMS NOT LIKELY AT THIS POINT. A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER RIDGE GETS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A BIG SURFACE HIGH DROPS DOWN FROM ICE COVERED
HUDSON`S BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD PRODUCE A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CUMULUS BUILD UP DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH END OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. DID REMOVE THE MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT SINCE LOW TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
854 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY REALLY LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIGHTER SHOWERS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THE
REST OF TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOWY RANGE WHERE LIGHT
RAIN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THAT LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH CIRRUS IS IN THE AREA TOMORROW. LACK OF
CIRRUS WOULD MEAN A HIGHER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WHILE A LOT
OF CIRRUS WOULD CERTAINLY SHUT OFF FLASH FLOOD CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP LOCATIONS AND TIMING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS A BIT CONCERNING AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF IS
MAKING ITS WAY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM OVER CONVERSE COUNTY AND OVER THE SNOWY RANGE. EVEN
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION UNDER THE
CIRRUS BLOWOFF EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE
SLOW...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT.
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OUT OF COLORADO. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON QPF
PLACEMENT. GFS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. ECMWF HITTING THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
OVER TO THE SNOWY RANGE...WHILE THE NAM IS HITTING THE SNOWY RANGE
PRETTY GOOD. DID A BLEND OF THE MODELS ON QPF HITTING THE
MOUNTAINS PRETTY HARD WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TONIGHT. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
STALLED OUT THUNDERSTORMS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...PWATS OUT BY RAWLINS
ARE UP TO 3/4THS OF AN INCH. WHERE EVER THESE STORMS
DEVELOP...FOLKS UNDERNEATH THEM ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF RAIN.
ONE LAST ITEM OF CONCERN...LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS CONVECTION
FURTHER EAST...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOST OF
LARAMIE COUNTY. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THE EVENING SHIFT
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCHES AS THEY ARE THOUGH...GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS.
PRECIP WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL COLORADO. VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL WYOMING. ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST
BULLISH ON QPF...WITH WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWFA. ALL THREE MODELS ARE HITTING THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BASED
ON THIS TREND FOR A MAJOR RAIN ON SNOW EVENT OUT THERE. WILL
UPDATE THE HWO TO HIT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SUNDAY. LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FOR CARBON COUNTY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500J/KG. WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OUT THERE TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN SOME AREAS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE WITH
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW TO MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT
WORKS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS AND THE NEXT LOW SWINGING DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTENOONS...BUT OVERALL
MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND FAIRLY WARM IN THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME. SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB
TEMPS AT +14C OVER THE WESTERN ZONES COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
SNOWMELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIDWEEK AS WELL (SOMETHING THAT
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH). BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
INTEREST WE NOW NOTE HOW THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DRAW
PACIFIC MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FROM WHAT WOULD
POSSIBLY BE LEFTOVER OF A SHEARED-OUT TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA. IT
IS WAY TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS NOW TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF LARAMIE INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
HOWEVER...DURING THE LAST 15 MINUTES OR SO A FAIRLY INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF LARAMIE. WE WENT AHEAD AND
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT SITE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN MOVE WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEHWERE...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS A RESULT...WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO LINGER MUCH PAST
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA TOMORROW WHICH WILL DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE TO PROMOTE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MAY SEE THE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...DUE TO GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. NOT
REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO FAIRLY WARM GROUND
IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MOIST
AIR MASS COMBINES WITH FUELS THAT ARE IN GREEN-UP. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MOST DAYS...WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DISTRICT. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MON-WED. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVE LIGHT THRU THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN
EARNEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
604 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP LOCATIONS AND TIMING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS A BIT CONCERNING AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF IS
MAKING ITS WAY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM OVER CONVERSE COUNTY AND OVER THE SNOWY RANGE. EVEN
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION UNDER THE
CIRRUS BLOWOFF EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE
SLOW...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT.
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OUT OF COLORADO. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON QPF
PLACEMENT. GFS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. ECMWF HITTING THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
OVER TO THE SNOWY RANGE...WHILE THE NAM IS HITTING THE SNOWY RANGE
PRETTY GOOD. DID A BLEND OF THE MODELS ON QPF HITTING THE
MOUNTAINS PRETTY HARD WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TONIGHT. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
STALLED OUT THUNDERSTORMS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...PWATS OUT BY RAWLINS
ARE UP TO 3/4THS OF AN INCH. WHERE EVER THESE STORMS
DEVELOP...FOLKS UNDERNEATH THEM ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF RAIN.
ONE LAST ITEM OF CONCERN...LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS CONVECTION
FURTHER EAST...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOST OF
LARAMIE COUNTY. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THE EVENING SHIFT
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCHES AS THEY ARE THOUGH...GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS.
PRECIP WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL COLORADO. VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL WYOMING. ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST
BULLISH ON QPF...WITH WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWFA. ALL THREE MODELS ARE HITTING THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BASED
ON THIS TREND FOR A MAJOR RAIN ON SNOW EVENT OUT THERE. WILL
UPDATE THE HWO TO HIT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SUNDAY. LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FOR CARBON COUNTY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500J/KG. WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OUT THERE TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN SOME AREAS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE WITH
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW TO MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT
WORKS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS AND THE NEXT LOW SWINGING DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTENOONS...BUT OVERALL
MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND FAIRLY WARM IN THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME. SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB
TEMPS AT +14C OVER THE WESTERN ZONES COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
SNOWMELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIDWEEK AS WELL (SOMETHING THAT
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH). BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
INTEREST WE NOW NOTE HOW THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DRAW
PACIFIC MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FROM WHAT WOULD
POSSIBLY BE LEFTOVER OF A SHEARED-OUT TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA. IT
IS WAY TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS NOW TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF LARAMIE INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
HOWEVER...DURING THE LAST 15 MINUTES OR SO A FAIRLY INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF LARAMIE. WE WENT AHEAD AND
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT SITE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN MOVE WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEHWERE...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS A RESULT...WE MAY
SEE THE SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO LINGER MUCH PAST
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA TOMORROW WHICH WILL DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE TO PROMOTE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...AREAS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MAY SEE THE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...DUE TO GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. NOT
REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO FAIRLY WARM GROUND
IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MOIST
AIR MASS COMBINES WITH FUELS THAT ARE IN GREEN-UP. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MOST DAYS...WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DISTRICT. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MON-WED. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVE LIGHT THRU THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN
EARNEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SWRN CO EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THUR THIS AFTN. BY TONIGHT IT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE
OVER ERN CO AS A WK BNDRY MOVES SOUTH FM SERN WY INTO NERN CO BY
AFTN.
OVERALL THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
1. THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
LVL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO MOVES NNW ACROSS THE
AREA IN SELY MID LVL FLOW. AS A RESULT THIS WOULD LIMIT HEATING
THIS AFTN AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONGER TSTMS OVER NERN CO AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS TO A MINIMUM WHICH WOULD REDUCE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH AS WE SAY YESTERDAY A FEW STORMS STILL WERE
ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS.
2. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO BREAK APART AND
ALLOWING FOR BETTER HEATING THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ALLOWING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. IF THIS SCENARIO DVLPS IT
APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FM NORTH OF DENVER TO THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE
WEAK BNDRY MOVING SOUTH FM SERN WY ENHANCES LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION WITH ESE MID LVL FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LYR THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE BNDRY. OVERALL
THIS WOULD BE THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
3. THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SCENARIO BETWEEN #1 AND #2 WHERE WE SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WHICH
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT NOT A WIDESPREAD
EVENT.
AT THIS POINT ITS REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SCENARIO IS FAVORED AS IT
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY THERE ALSO COULD BE
SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL.
IN THE MTNS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL BY MIDDAY WITH
THE SNOW LEVELS ABV 10000 FEET WHERE A FEW INCHES MAY OCCUR. FOR
TONIGHT MOST PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MODELS HAVE AND UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
THEN DOWNSLOPING MONDAY OVER NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MONRING. THE REST
OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE UPSLOPING WITH NORMAL TRENDS AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE PROGGED ON MONDAY...
DRYING OUT A TAD MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS DRIER AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DRIES A BIT MORE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
40S F FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THEY DECREASE A BIT. CAPE
IS PRETTY LIMITED BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATER DAY TUESDAY...
THEN NO AREAS OF THE CWA ON ANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING VALUES ABOVE
1000 J/KG. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE MORNING INCLUDED. THERE IS NOTHING
AFTER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TAD PROGGED
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA ONLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
POPS...WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN
BARELY NOTHING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
WARM UP ANOTHER 2-4 C FROM MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS NOT
GREAT...BUT INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
333 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DVLP BY 19Z HOWEVER
IT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE WK
BNDRY AS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE. IF A STRONGER STORM DOES MOVE ACROSS
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
FOR 30 TO 45 MINUTES. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BECOME DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT ELY BY 18Z. LATEST RAP SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM
CONVECTION NEAR THE FOOTHILLS MOVING ACROSS BY 21Z WITH A SHIFT TO
THE NW AND THEN MORE NLY BY 00Z. BY MID EVENING WINDS MAY SHIFT TO
MORE WLY AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
RIVER ARE BEGINNING TO RISE WITH SOME GETTING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
IN GRAND AND JACKSON COUNTIES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SO FAR MOST
STREAMS ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES EXCEPT FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE NEAR
GREELEY WHICH MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE ON MON.
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FM BOULDER NORTH TO FORT COLLINS
WITH UP TO ONE INCH IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS. HOWEVER IF IT LOOKS LIKE
SCENARIO #2 TALKED ABOVE IS TAKING SHAPE THEN HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 45 MINUTES WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SOME FLASH FLOODING WHERE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAIN.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID WEEK SO SNOW MELT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVERS/STREAMS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION..RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
507 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS***
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS FOR THAT.
OTHERWISE...A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 6.5C TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30
TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-20C...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A FEW OF THE STORMS. CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF HIT/MISS VARIETY...SO
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES.
NOTING CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL TEND TO KEEP A
GENERALLY NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...BRINGING SHORT WAVES ACROSS
WITH SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
WARM AIR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...BUT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND NEW BRUNSWICK TRY
TO INTRUDE. BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH... RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECENS MEANS. OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVE IN
THE BUILDING NW UPPER FLOW LATE THIS WEEK NOTED.
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW BLASTS S OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC IN THE UPPER
FLOW...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY S-SW OUT OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND S ME. WILL SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE INTO NE MA/S
NH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO WORK S.
WILL ALSO SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH H5
TEMPS BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...ALONG WITH THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE E COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ALSO NOTING FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES
IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S AROUND -1. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...SO WILL SEE E-NE WINDS PICK
UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS OFF THE OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 50S ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND
50 FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUE RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY ALONG THE
E COAST BEFORE FALLING BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FROM W CENTRAL MA/W RI AND NE CT WESTWARD.
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES NOSES ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL PATTERN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE GUSTY E-NE WINDS ALONG S COASTAL
AREAS UP TO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ONLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON THU.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND EVEN A FEW CLOSED LOWS CROSSING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS THIS FAR OUT GENERALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THESE
FEATURES...AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT
CONTINUITY GOING IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING SCT SHOWERS LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI. NOTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS WERE
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
COVERED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MEANWHILE...SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE STILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING 35 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GUST UP TO 25 KT FOR E COASTAL TERMINALS.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND E-NE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KT. SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS MAY START TO DIMINISH DURING THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL
DAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS***
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS FOR THAT.
OTHERWISE...A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 6.5C TO 7.0 C/KM...500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30
TO 35 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-20C...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A FEW OF THE STORMS. CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF HIT/MISS VARIETY...SO
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG EACH COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY EACH TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND ARRIVES TUESDAY...THE SECOND ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS...THE PATTERN INDICATES
SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR TIMING WITH FROPA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER THE EXACT TIMING...THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STABILITY
IS MARGINAL WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE 6-6.5C/KM AND TOTALS UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. COULD BE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO
SIGNS OF AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE CHANGE AFTER FROPA AS WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE PRIOR TO FROPA AND THE
GREATEST COOLING AFTER PASSAGE WILL BE IN EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED WARMEST MAX TEMPS IN THE CT VALLEY WITH VALUES NEAR
80...AND VALUES 70-75 IN EASTERN MASS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER
DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
OVERVIEW...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND AN AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER AREA OF
VORTICITY THAN THE GFS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH SEEM TO FORCE THE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND TO HANDLE THIS EXCEPT FOR THE CMC WHICH
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
THURSDAY...SOME ENERGY AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD ALLOWS FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THAT IS AS FAR
AS THEY COME DURING THE DAY. HAVE STILL ALLOWED FOR CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY ON AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY INDEXES SHOW A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH THE TOTAL OF TOTALS MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 50 WITH PATCHES OF 50 AROUND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE DAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEARING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS WERE
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
COVERED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MEANWHILE...SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE STILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING 35 TO 45 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD MAINLY
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS FOG MAY EXPAND A
BIT FURTHER THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
COOL. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...SO
WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THAT REGION TOWARDS 12Z.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*** FEW STRONG STORMS SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ***
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP SUN AS
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN NW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH SB CAPES MAINLY UNDER
1000 J/KG...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 MB/ WILL YIELD STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THAT COMBINED WITH DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF
30-35KT MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON. FOCUS MAY END UP BEING NEAR SEA
BREEZE FRONT WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOCATIONS NEAR I-495 CORRIDOR SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR. CONVECTION MAY END UP DEVELOPING LATE
SUN MORNING IN FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT AM
MORE CONFIDENT MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 70S AWAY FROM COAST...WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN 60S.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MEANS PROCESS MAY BE SLOWER THAN WHAT
IS NORMALLY EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG EACH COAST. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY EACH TROUGH. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND ARRIVES TUESDAY...THE SECOND ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS...THE PATTERN INDICATES
SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY... WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS MONDAY ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN NH. THE FOCUS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ACROSS MAINE-NH-
VT...WITH MOST OF ANY SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN NH AND
NORTHEAST MASS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR HEATING.
MIXING LEVELS WILL REACH AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 12-14C...SO MAX TEMPS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL REACH 20-25 KNOTS...SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THAT RANGE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR TIMING WITH FROPA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER THE EXACT TIMING...THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STABILITY
IS MARGINAL WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE 6-6.5C/KM AND TOTALS UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. COULD BE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO
SIGNS OF AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE CHANGE AFTER FROPA AS WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE PRIOR TO FROPA AND THE
GREATEST COOLING AFTER PASSAGE WILL BE IN EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED WARMEST MAX TEMPS IN THE CT VALLEY WITH VALUES NEAR
80...AND VALUES 70-75 IN EASTERN MASS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER
DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
OVERVIEW...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND AN AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING DOWN
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER AREA OF
VORTICITY THAN THE GFS AND IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH SEEM TO FORCE THE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND TO HANDLE THIS EXCEPT FOR THE CMC WHICH
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
THURSDAY...SOME ENERGY AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD ALLOWS FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THAT IS AS FAR
AS THEY COME DURING THE DAY. HAVE STILL ALLOWED FOR CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY ON AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY INDEXES SHOW A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH THE TOTAL OF TOTALS MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 50 WITH PATCHES OF 50 AROUND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE DAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEARING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS WERE
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
COVERED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MEANWHILE...SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE STILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG...PRODUCING 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW
PROBABILITY OF ONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS ON OUTER WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.
BAND OF SHOWERS DROPS S ACROSS WATERS EARLY TONIGHT... MAINLY ON
E MA WATERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUN AFTERNOON ON NEAR SHORE
WATERS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35KT GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED FARTHER INLAND NEAR SEA BREEZE
FRONT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS SUN NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-6
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THESE WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT ARRIVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. THE SOUTHERN SPLIT
OF THIS FLOW DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO A
LARGE CLOSED LOW FEATURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS FLOW
THEN EJECTS EASTWARD AND RIDGES UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/SOUTHERN MS VALLEYS BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN A NW/ZONAL FLOW CONFIGURATION ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR HEADS
WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
CROSSING HIGH ABOVE THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN A
ZONE OF VERY WEAK GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SINK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATER TODAY AND
HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT SOMEWHAT FOR OUR LOCALLY
AREA. THIS BUILDING GRADIENT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AS IT
MIGHT HELP TO FOCUS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE LATE TODAY TO DEVELOP A FEW WIDELY SCT STORMS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. MORE ABOUT THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MOST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. UNLIKE PAST DAYS...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST WILL RESULT IN
A DEVELOPING EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY.
THIS SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SEA-BREEZE A BIT MORE
SHALLOW TODAY AND ALSO PREVENT ITS INLAND PENETRATION MUCH FURTHER
THAN APPROX THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SO...PARTY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD DIURNAL HEATING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BEACHES WILL AGAIN SEE 80S AS THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW TRANSPORTS
THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OFF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHELF
WATERS.
LATER IN THE DAY (AFTER 3-4PM) GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE REALLY BECOMING DEFINED ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. NOW...IF THIS WAS A MONTH FROM NOW...WE
WOULD LIKELY BE PREDICTING A HIGH COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...AS AN EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS FAVORED FOR FL WEST COAST
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF
THE SEASON. THE NEAR SHORE WATERS STILL NEED TO WARM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...AND DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING. THETA-E VALUES AROUND
10,000FT ARE UNDER 320K...AND CONVECTIVE CELLS DO NOT LIKE THIS KIND
IF ENVIRONMENT AS DRY AIR IS QUICKLY ENTRAINED INTO THE UPDRAFT AND
THE STORM STRUGGLES TO GROW. ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
SEMI-HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SURFACE FOCUS...AND A POCKET
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE LEVELS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCT DEVELOPMENT. THE COOLEST
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF I-4...AND HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES 40-45% OVER THE NATURE COAST. 25-30% RAIN CHANCES SEEM
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND SUNCOAST ZONES UNDER THE LESS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
LOCAL HI-RES WRFARW RUNS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR THEIR MOVEMENT TO BE A MIGRATION WESTWARD
OFF THE COAST WITH TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...BOATERS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DARKER SKIES TO THE EAST
LATE TODAY SO THEY DO NOT BECOME CUT OFF FROM SHORE BY ANY OF THESE
ISOLATED STORMS.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MIGRATE OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING
SETTING UP A GENERALLY DRY AND WARM REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY AND ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!!!
&&
MID TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUMP UP AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND POCKET OF COLD
AIR ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
MAY BE STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE LONG
RANGE AS CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FILL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL BUILD A STRONG U/L RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH WILL BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA. PREFER ECMWF EVOLUTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA VERSUS THE GFS WHICH EXTENDS AN EAST COAST TROUGH
SOUTH OVER THE REGION WHICH CREATES A SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST IN THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST. U/L RIDGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT EACH
DAY AS A BACKDOOR CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO COLLIDE OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY COLLISION.
GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE GFS AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF
SOLUTION...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE FOR THE MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF KLAL AND KPGD.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING
HOURS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW WIDELY SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS WILL BE
BRIEF IN NATURE...BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH WESTWARD OFF THE COAST BY THE
LATER EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR REGION TODAY AND MONDAY WILL
THEN SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES.
THOSE PLANNING ON BOATING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED BY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN
MIGRATE WESTWARD OFF THE COAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS
TIME...NO WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 74 90 73 / 30 30 20 10
FMY 94 73 92 71 / 30 20 20 10
GIF 94 71 92 70 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 90 73 87 71 / 30 30 20 10
BKV 94 69 91 66 / 40 30 20 10
SPG 91 76 90 74 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA AT CAE/CUB FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA TODAY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS
TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK CLOUDS
MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
RECENT HOURS. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA AT CAE/CUB/OGB FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE
CSRA TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NEED
TO AMEND IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
316 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
RECENT HOURS. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA AT CAE/CUB/OGB FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE
CSRA TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NEED
TO AMEND IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
346 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper low that has been sitting over the Desert Southwest over
the past several days will be moving out of the central Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains during the first few days of the extended
period. Monday morning, the upper low will be located along the
Colorado/New Mexico border while a shortwave trough rotates north
around the east side of the low through central Kansas. Model
soundings are not overly unstable through this time period. Given
that the upper level cold pool associated with the low will be
moving out over western Kansas, I would expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms develop during the day. Showers
and storms should be more focused over central Kansas with the
shortwave as it moves north during the day.
The upper low moves out through the Panhandle region into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and continues southeast on Wednesday.
As the upper low moves east, there will be some lingering chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and south central
Kansas, closer to the upper low. Far western Kansas should dry out
as upper level ridging builds eastward.
Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge dominates the central
Plains. Chances for thunderstorms will increase toward the weekend
as southwesterly flow aloft increases and shortwave troughs lift out
of the southwestern states through the central and northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR conditions are expected overnight as the prevailing cloud
cove/ceilings will remain above 3kft. Very isolated small convective
elements will be found primarily west of the Garden City terminal for
a couple of more hours, but the chances of any storms affecting the terminal
is low. Better chances for convection affecting any of the area
terminals will be as the upper low moves closer to the
region...destabilizing the lower troposphere around midday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 30 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 30 40 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 20 30 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...updated short term section...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
This evening`s 00 UTC objective analysis and radar/satellite
observation showed the upper low now over the southern Rockies
region as thunderstorms decayed across the central High Plains of
Colorado and Kansas. The associated upper low showed a relative
cold pool around -17 degrees C at 500 mb. A continuous fetch of
boundary layer moisture advection was present, notably at 850 mb
level from the southern High Plains of Texas through western
Nebraska, aiding layer precipitable water values in excess of an
inch across most of southwest Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A blocky flow regime will continue in the central United States most
of next week as the closed upper level cyclone in Arizona wallows
slowly east into the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and into northern
Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Upper level ridging will build from
Mexico into the Central Plains north of the upper level cyclone, and
the remnants of the cyclone should propagate south to the Texas Gulf
Coast next weekend on the southern periphery of the upper level
ridge extending from Mexico to the Upper Midwest. The net result
will be a return to warm and quiet weather in western Kansas from
Tuesday through Friday.
A weakening Madden Julian Oscillation may propagate across Africa
into the Indian Ocean by the end of May, but any coherent signal
will be weak and will have little influence on the mid latitude flow
regime. Global relative angular momentum has been above climatology
since mid May, but mountain torque has trended toward negative
territory in recent days. The atmosphere appears to be best
represented by Phase 8 of the Weickmann-Berry Phase Space diagram
and may trend toward Phase 1 by the end of next week given the
probable continued negative tendency in global relative angular
momentum. Phase 8 and 1 both favor cyclonic flow in the western
United States, so the concept of maintaining a mean long wave trough
near 120W with a ridge in the eastern Pacific and a trend toward
ridging from Mexico into the Southern Plains seems very reasonable.
If some sort of coherent cluster of enhanced tropical thunderstorms
does move across the Indian Ocean the first part of June, upper
level ridging may be enhanced in the western United States, and
another surge of cool air may spread into the central part of the
country the first week of June.
The extensive rainfall that has occurred in the Texas Panhandle,
eastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma in recent days will favor at
least some greening of vegetation and will have an effect on the
weather in western Kansas in June. Increased evapotranspiration will
support higher dewpoints in western Kansas at least for a while. The
pool of warm ocean temperatures in the mid latitudes in the North
Pacific has continued to shift eastward with time, and ocean
temperatures are above climatology along the west coast of Canada.
This is different from what was observed in 2012 and 2013 and may
favor northwest flow aloft across the Central Plains and increased
incidence of nocturnal thunderstorm clusters propagating from
northeastern Colorado across western Kansas this summer. Guidance
still suggests that rainfall in June will be above climatology,
especially in northern Kansas.
In the more immediate future, the numerical models are in
surprisingly good agreement with propagation of the closed upper
level cyclone as it approaches the Oklahoma Panhandle Monday and
moves into northern Oklahoma Tuesday. The 12Z GFS agrees well with
the 00Z ECMWF and largely was used for minor grid adjustments. A
moist and marginally unstable atmosphere will continue in western
Kansas, and minor troughs rotating around the upper level cyclone
will support episodes of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.
The GFS and ECMWF both move a minor upper level trough evident on
satellite imagery in central California around the upper level
cyclone into western Oklahoma Sunday night. This should support
development of a cluster of thunderstorms that will move into south
central Kansas Sunday night and weaken in central Kansas Monday
morning. Scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the upper level
cold pool could occur about any where in Kansas Monday afternoon and
Monday evening, although the cold pool across the southern part of
the state may be the favored area for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Any weak boundary near the upper level cyclone will
have to be watched for the possibility weak nonmesocyclone tornado
formation in the moist environment.
On Tuesday, the upper level cyclone still will be close enough to
south central Kansas to support diurnally modulated thunderstorm
development, but chances will decrease Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level ridging builds in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
The GFS continues to try to bring the remnants of TS Amanda north
into Arizona Friday and into eastern Colorado by Saturday morning,
while the ECMWF carries most of the remnants of Amanda west into the
cooler waters of the Pacific. If the GFS verifies, there will be an
increased chance for thunderstorms in western Kansas Saturday;
however, confidence is far too low to get too carried away with rain
chances. Upper level ridging will build in central Canada around 1
June, and a cold front is likely to move into northern Kansas. A
warm mid level plume should spread into the High Plains next
weekend, and the potential exists for nocturnal thunderstorm
clusters along the edge of the elevated mixed layer the few days of
June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR conditions are expected overnight as the prevailing cloud
cove/ceilings will remain above 3kft. Very isolated small convective
elements will be found primarily west of the Garden City terminal for
a couple of more hours, but the chances of any storms affecting the terminal
is low. Better chances for convection affecting any of the area
terminals will be as the upper low moves closer to the
region...destabilizing the lower troposphere around midday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 20 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 30 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 30 30 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 20 20 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 40 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
INCOMING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL STREAM IN OVER KY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO INSULATE A LOT OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND SO HAVE UPDATED TO
BUMP UP MIN TEMPS. WITH THIS...HAVE UPDATED THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
THIS WILL GO AS MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND A NEW ZFP
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL HAVE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. GIVEN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
KEPT THE AREA DRIER...OPTING TO HOLD OFF TEMPORARILY ON ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF THE NEXT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WE MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...NO REAL
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO FRESHEN UP HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A BIT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA...BUT THESE
CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE WARMING...SO WE MAY SEE A DECLINE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE GOING MORE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR
OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE QUITE
COMFORTABLE RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS TAKES PLACE...AS THE BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES...ANCHORED BY
LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
RIDGE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL THE ENERGY AT BAY FOR
KENTUCKY...THOUGH...SUCH THAT SOME WORKS INTO OUR CWA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE GONE WITH WX DETAILS FROM
THE NAM12 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL FOG FORMATION. A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMP SPLIT CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TIME DIURNAL
CURVES FOR THIS IN THE VALLEYS. THE FRONT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY AND A SMALL INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE THE
COOLING IN THE VALLEYS.
PRIMARILY USED THE BCCONSSHORT GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE BCCONSALL
THEN LOADED TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS
WHERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE
WITH THE MOS NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGHER VALUES AT SME FROM THE MAV WERE
DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE DRIER MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START OUT JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
RIDGING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS...WITH REINFORCING BOUTS OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS WILL
EVOLVE CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MURKY BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GIVEN POPS SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG
FORCING SIGNALS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...EXPECT INCREASED HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...ADDING A LITTLE BIT MORE FORCING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
SATURDAY DRY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE CUMULUS
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING OVER EAST
KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
BEFORE MVFR AND VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FIRST ACROSS
DEEP E TX AROUND/AFTER 25/09Z AND FOR REMAINING E AND NE TX AND NW
AND N CENTRAL LA TERMINALS BETWEEN 25/10Z-25/13Z. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION AS VCSH WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 30 HAVING
THE HIGHER CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP IN THE MID MORNING TO 5-10 KNOTS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE AR/LA LINE. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY GENERATED ISOLATED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SCNTRL AR...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RETURNS/SPRINKLES NOTED FARTHER S
INTO NCNTRL LA. STILL SEEING EXTENSIVE AREAS OF AC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS MUCH OF AR TO JUST W OF ELD TO RSN...WITH
THE PROGS SHIFTING THIS DISTURBANCE E OUT OF OUR REGION BY 06Z.
ADDITIONAL AC IS ALSO DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS E TX/NW
LA ALONG AN ATTENDANT W-E WEAK TROUGH AXIS...BUT THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER DRY BELOW 10KFT PER THE 00Z KSHV RAOB...WITH DIRTY
RIDGING ALOFT LINGERING OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED -SHRA LATE MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM. THE 00Z NAM AND HRRR DO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/AFTER DAYBREAK N
OF I-30 WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BUT DID
TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT TO INCLUDE JUST THE EXTREME
NW ZONES.
ALSO BEEFED UP SKY COVER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL TX...AS WELL AS AC DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER E TX/N LA. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FG
FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AS THIS COULD AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE...AFFECTING THESE AREAS LATE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE MORNINGS. TEMPS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED 24 HOURS AGO...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER THE
CURRENT TRENDS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 87 69 86 69 / 10 20 30 40 50
MLU 65 88 68 87 68 / 10 10 20 30 50
DEQ 63 85 65 81 65 / 20 30 30 50 60
TXK 65 85 67 84 67 / 10 20 30 40 50
ELD 64 87 66 87 66 / 10 20 30 30 50
TYR 66 82 68 82 68 / 20 20 30 40 50
GGG 66 85 68 83 68 / 10 20 30 40 50
LFK 67 85 69 84 70 / 10 20 20 30 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ON MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. WHAT IS MORE
UNRELIABLE FROM THE MODELS IN THIS CASE IS THE SFC DEW PTS...WHICH
FEEDS INTO THE MODELS SHOWING TOO GREAT OF INSTABILITY AND ALSO TOO
MUCH QPF. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DUE TO
SFC DEW POINT PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW PTS WILL
MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. DO THIS THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT OF MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE KEWEENAW DRY
AS LAKE MODERATION WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING THERE.
KEPT BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF BEST
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE FORMATION/PASSAGE COINCIDE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 14C...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT JUST S/SW OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GEM...HOWEVER...ARE SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SFC RIDGING FROM THE N. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS IN BRINGING THE SFC RIDGE IN FASTER...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT S OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS
WILL BE 12-13C WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S INLAND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED AND THU LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS KEEP SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE W OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO FRI AND SAT...BUT THE
GENERAL PATTER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 17C. IF THIS
VERIFIES...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WOULD LIKELY RESULT. AT THIS
TIME WILL RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MORE SEASONABLE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET REMAINING ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTRN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO RELATIVELY WEAK AND HARD TO FORECAST DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NRN MN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO EVE. IN GENERAL...THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TOO GREAT
IN MODELS DUE TO OVER FORECAST OF SFC DWPTS IN MID 60S. MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG IN MOST OF THE NWP WHICH IS STILL LIKELY A
LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK - ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZES COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY EXCEPT THOSE AREAS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE LAKE INDUCED STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT THINK MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT
IN ANY WAY...BUT PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DODGE A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +14C. WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME CLOUDS IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY...BUT STILL AN ABOVE AVERAGE DAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
COLD LAKE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM
SUGGESTS. WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE DEVELOPING RELATIVELY STABLE NE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...WITH COOLER
TEMPS.
EXTENDED - SEASONABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S. GFS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES
FOR PCPN EACH DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STABLE SURFACE
FLOW. THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO REALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. WILL END UP INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA. RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN...AND AS A RESULT...LAKE BREEZES ARE THE RULE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. PER 12Z KGRB SOUNDING...AIR MASS IS TOO
DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION ALONG AHEAD OF LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. IN FACT...THERE HASN`T BEEN TOO MUCH CU TODAY. WHAT HAS
DEVELOPED IS VERY HIGH BASED DUE TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS. EARLIER
TODAY...THERE WERE A FEW SHRA IN NE MN AND FAR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO IN AREAS OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
THOSE SHRA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTN. TEMPS ACROSS W AND
CNTRL UPPER MI HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S AND LWR 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MODERATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES POTENTIAL OF ANY
CONVECTION TONIGHT/SUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MID/UPPER RIDGE TO
THE W DRIFTS SLIGHTLY E...WITH AXIS STILL JUST W OF UPPER MI BY LATE
SUN AFTN. 500MB HEIGHTS CHANGE LITTLE...AND IF ANYTHING THERE ARE
VERY SLIGHT RISES. OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE.
THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN SRN MANITOBA. QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM INSTABILITY (MLCAPES
ARE AROUND 1500J/KG IN SRN MANITOBA WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING). MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT OVER
UPPER MI...AND POOL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PASSES TO THE N OF UPPER
MI...FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS GFS/NAM/GEM MODEL RUNS SHOWED. HIGH RES
MODELS ALSO KEEP PCPN FARTHER N OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP CHC/SCHC POPS N OF UPPER MI AND OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. STILL...WILL NEED TO
WATCH TRENDS ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS DECAYING REMNANTS MAY SNEAK
INTO PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI SUN MORNING AS THICKNESS FIELDS
INDICATE PCPN WILL TEND TO PEEL SE WITH TIME.
ON SUN...POOL OF LOWER THETA-E/K INDEX ROTATES NE INTO UPPER MI.
THIS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALSO RESULTS IN ALMOST NO MLCAPE PER
NAM/GFS. SO THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. AS FOR TEMPS...DEEP MIXING TOWARD
750MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO
EVEN MID 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION. SW FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER
SUN THAN TODAY...SO THERE WILL ONLY BE LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LAKESIDE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY E OF KESC SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
50S AT BEST. WITH DEEP MIXING...INCORPORATED LOWER DWPTS INTO THE
FCST IN THE AFTN BASED ON SOUNDINGS. DWPTS COULD VERY WELL END UP A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT
OF MAX TEMPS INTO THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS FALLING TO THE LWR 40S...
MIN RH WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS AROUND 25PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWEST RH WILL
OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MORE SEASONABLE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN JET REMAINING ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTRN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO RELATIVELY WEAK AND HARD TO FORECAST DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NRN MN.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WEST LATE.
ON MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO EVE. IN GENERAL...THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TOO GREAT
IN MODELS DUE TO OVER FORECAST OF SFC DWPTS IN MID 60S. MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG IN MOST OF THE NWP WHICH IS STILL LIKELY A
LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK - ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZES COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY EXCEPT THOSE AREAS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE LAKE INDUCED STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT THINK MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT
IN ANY WAY...BUT PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DODGE A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +14C. WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME CLOUDS IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY...BUT STILL AN ABOVE AVERAGE DAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
COLD LAKE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM
SUGGESTS. WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE DEVELOPING RELATIVELY STABLE NE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...WITH COOLER
TEMPS.
EXTENDED - SEASONABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID WEEK GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S. GFS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES
FOR PCPN EACH DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STABLE SURFACE
FLOW. THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO REALLY BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. WILL END UP INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AND
SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...ENSURING VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MRNG BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE ARE UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND TRAVERSING THE RIDGE... BUT IS A
BIT TOUGH TO SEE THEM GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF OBSCURING CIRRUS. THE
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE IS NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRUDGINGLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK
TOWARD THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE WHEN
THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT... BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME... WE WILL STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BENEATH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS... LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES BECOMING NEGATIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MINIMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST... SO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... AS WELL AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HOWEVER... THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS VERY WEAK WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION BEING LARGELY
OFFSET BY THE DESCENT OF THE ISENTROPES OVER TIME AS THINGS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA... AND KEEP THINGS DRY FROM A
QG DRIVEN PCPN PERSPECTIVE. BUT... WITH INSTABILITY WORKING BACK
INTO THE AREA... SOME POTENTIAL WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES... IT STILL MAKES SENSE TO
INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD LOOK BETTER BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. WENT REASONABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS... BUT DID KNOCK DOWN NUMBERS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEST FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TODAY. HOWEVER... WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED ONCE AGAIN... IT IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE READINGS IN
THE WEST COULD OVER-ACHIEVE ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
BY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS DO DROP THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK GOOD WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HINT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DROPS IT SOUTH OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME MID 80S IN THE WEST...IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME ECHO TRAINING NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA THEN. RATHER HIGH CAPE VALUES INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD H5 HEIGHTS OVER 582
DECAMETER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK COOLING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOULD BE A NICE THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RANGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SURFACE RIDGING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW CONCERNS DO EXIST HOWEVER. THE
FIRST IS LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF NE/IA.
THEY ARE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
ONLY WANTS TO BRING THEM INTO FAR SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD END UP IMPACTING KRWF WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND ONLY SCT020 INDICATED FOR MVFR CLOUDS
WITH A BKN045 ABOVE. THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS THE THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS FROM KAXN TO KRWF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
THREAT FOR STORMS IS LATER IN THE NIGHT BEYOND THE TAF. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LIGHT
SE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. SPED UP THE ONSET OF BKN045 BY MIDDAY ON
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH CHC SHRA/TS. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SLGT CHC SHRA/TS. WINDS S 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SLGT CHC SHRA/TS. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1133 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FALLEN APART OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY...BUT HAVE
LEFT THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STORMS PERCOLATING N OF THE BORDER.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH STORMS PERCOLATING NEARBY. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE EARLY
TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW AND MID LVL WARMING HAS RESTRICTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU BUILDING OVER ARROWHEAD. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES PER THE
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. WE MAY YET SEE AN ISOLATED RW/TRW DEVELOP.
TEMPS JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY EXCEPT MUCH COOLER
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ITS CONVECTIVE SEASON AND WITH THAT COMES THE
USUAL CHALLENGE OF FCSTING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ABSENCE OF WELL
DEFINED BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID LVL WARMING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AMIDST A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED LARGE SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE BASIC
SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF MULTI MDL QPF CONCENTRATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS WEST PER
LATEST SREF/GEM/NAM CONSENSUS. EVEN 4KM SPC WRFNMM..WHICH IS A
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL...DOESNT ALLOW CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BASED ON LATEST FCST 925H VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST MN THEN EITHER MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MN. WHERE IT
SLOWS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
POSITION BY TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES. ATMOS DESTABILIZES WITH CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY
ABOUT TUESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PUTTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN CONTINUING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN OFF-LAKE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
VFR. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD
REMAIN THERE AND NO MENTION NEEDED FOR INL. GUSTY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z AT INL/HIB/BRD WHICH WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET.
INTRODUCED A VCSH AT BRD BY 03Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 79 60 78 / 0 10 60 20
INL 56 82 57 78 / 60 10 40 10
BRD 55 81 62 80 / 0 20 50 20
HYR 48 81 61 80 / 0 10 60 30
ASX 50 79 59 79 / 0 10 60 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
231 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER THUS FAR THIS YEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
STUBBORN BAND OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL
SECURITY SITE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF CLARK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THERE WERE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OF 35 DBZ.
A 35 DBZ RETURN PRODUCED SPRINKLES OVER THE OFFICE AROUND 130
AM...SO PRESUMABLY THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND.
AMONG THE HIGH RES MODELS...THE HRRR WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE 06Z NAM12 ALSO INITIALIZED THE LIGHT PRECIP
REASONABLY WELL. BOTH MODELS END THE PRECIP BY SUNRISE...SO TRENDED
THE FORECAST THIS WAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW STABLE AIR
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MANY
MODELS ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY AND PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WHOLE THE MODELS SHOW LESS PRECIP
THERE THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY...AND NOTHING HAPPENED THEN...SO
CHANCES TODAY ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES. KLAS SHOULD
REACH 100F ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ACTUALLY TANKED BEYOND THURSDAY ON TONIGHT`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. INITIALLY A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THEN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER AS
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THE FIRST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE
BIG WILD CARD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE AMANDA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOVE THIS MOISTURE TOWARD ARIZONA
STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LIFT IN NORTH ACROSS THAT STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE GRIDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN NEARBY TIME PERIODS AS WELL AS
IN THESE PERIODS. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT UP - IF AT ALL - AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE GETS. TEMPS SHOULD
LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, SPEEDS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AS
THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE DEEPER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MAIN SET-UP. THE
GFS AND DGEX SHOW A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN ON THE GEM AND ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 00Z GEM AND
ECMWF NOW SPLIT ENERGY OFF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TAKE IT OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ALOFT NORTH FROM NW MEXICO. WHILE
THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY EITHER WAY, HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE IS A BIG
QUESTION. FOR NOW, I SHOWED STATUS-QUO WITH TEMPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF PATTERN WOULD
PUT TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO 100 IN VEGAS BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT KLAS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
OVERNIGHT UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. STORM MOTIONS ARE THE
SLOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
MINOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY
EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
QUICK UPDATE AGAIN FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN STARK COUNTY. PROBABLY A FEW MORE TRAINING CELLS
OVER THIS AREA BEFORE THE THETA-E RIDGE STARTS TO GET SHUNTED EAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE EAST. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST FROM WILLISTON
TO EAST OF CROSBY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST
OVERNIGHT. LIMITED POPS EVEN MORE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE
THETA-E RIDGE OVER GRANT COUNTY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER
THE THETA-E RIDGE IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER WEST OVER
STARK COUNTY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH AND LIFTING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE
APPEARS MINIMAL WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WILL
SEE THE LOWEST THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT HERE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM DO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...THUS
SPREADING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND POPS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY GRANT COUNTY IN A THETA-E
RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE THETA-E RIDGE ADVANCES
SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
DETERMINING IF IT WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FIRST THING`S FIRST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY OVER SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ORGANIZING INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING INTO
ANYTHING MORE THAN MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS
AND ECMWF FORECASTS...A RETURN TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE VERY WET
SCENARIO NEXT WEEKEND IS ADVERTISED. LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
EXPECT A WARM WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C OR IN THE LOWER 20C
RANGE. SOME SUNSHINE UNDER THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AT
KBIS/KJMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LATER UPDATES PROVIDING THE
TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS. HAVE INCLUDED AN AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUP
AT KJMS...WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION... THE FIRST IS A
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO... AND THE SECOND IS A
COMPLEX/LINE OF STORMS ACROSS W CENTRAL TX. WV IMAGERY REVEALS THE
WRN LINE IS TIED TO THE CUTOFF H500 TROUGH... WHICH CONTINUES TO
CHURN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SECOND COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE UPPER TROUGH. RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE FAR WRN ACTIVITY IS LIKELY GETTING SOME HELP FROM THE
SHORT WAVE. IN RESPONSE... A WIDE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK. THIS BODES WILL FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS CLOSE... WITH VARIOUS RUNS OF
THE NMM AND ARW ALSO CLOSE. WRT TO THE TRADITIONAL MODELS... THE
00Z NAM BRINGS IN A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT
THE MOMENT GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THROUGH 12Z... WENT WITH
A COMPROMISE OF THE HRRR... NMM AND ARW HIRES RUNS. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO LIFT SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING... WITH THE WRN LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST
AND INTO FAR WRN OK AND WRN N TX SOMEWHERE IN THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.
BESIDES PRECIP/WX GRIDS... ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS A TOUCH THROUGH
SUNRISE TO BRING BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS TREND.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
THINK ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 08-12Z...THEN SHIFT EAST.
THIS BAND WILL END WEST TO EAST 17-22Z. ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z...BUT EXACTLY WHAT LOCATIONS
GET AFFECTED REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT MENTION TS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
WILL GO WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BECOME MVFR BY 14Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 10Z...AND MAY GET AS FAR EAST AS
KSPS-KOKC. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
17-22Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOWERED LIKELY POPS INTO SLIGHT CATEGORY EARLIER FOR MOST AREAS
FOLLOWING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. STRONGEST CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IS ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS STATE LINE AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. RECENT RUNS OF HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FA.
BETTER FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. BETTER OPPORTUNITY OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL...AND FROM
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING THE MAIN SAFETY CONCERNS. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION SKIRTING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 HAVE NOT
RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST.
UPPER LOW PROGD TO BE OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER WEAKEN
AND LOITER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN GOING OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY WEEK ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN MODERATE CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AND WITH THIS
BEING ONE OF THE BIGGER OUTDOOR WEEKENDS...FOLKS NEED TO KEEP
THESE HAZARDS IN MIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 66 82 65 / 60 40 60 60
HOBART OK 80 64 81 64 / 60 60 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 65 83 66 / 60 60 60 60
GAGE OK 78 62 82 60 / 50 40 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 82 65 83 63 / 60 40 60 60
DURANT OK 86 67 83 67 / 30 30 40 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SE TX. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS
NEAR KLBX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED OUT IN WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS COME TO AN END.
LOWER PWAT AIR WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA. GFS AND NAM
BOTH SHOW PWATS JUST OVER AN 1.00" THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH RES
MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH KEEPING RAIN OUT OF AREA TOMORROW. HAVE
BROUGHT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF THIS.
TOMORROW HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ADDED ON VERY POSSIBLE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM A BIT TOMORROW AND WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE HAVE RAISED MAX T GRIDS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE STREAK OF BELOW 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT
KCLL COULD BE BROKEN TOMORROW. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND (WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL ORG-
ANIZING OFF TO THE WEST)...WE COULD SEE INCREASING ISO POPS OVER
MORE OF SE TX TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE AXIS NUDGES INTO THE CWA.
A DECENT SWATH OF SCT POPS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN UP AHEAD OF THE PROG-
GED STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. ALSO MAKING THEMSELVES KNOWN ARE THE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALOFT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THESE SHORTWAVES CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR STILL
LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MIDDLE/END OF THE FCST AS
SAID STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FCST TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHCS TO
THE AREA NEXT WEEK. (FINGERS CROSSED) 41
MARINE...
OVERALL RATHER SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS
AROUND 3- 4FT OFF THE COAST. DO NOT SEE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MARINE
HAZARDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE GULF BUT MORE SO INLAND.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 89 70 86 71 / 20 10 10 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 89 71 87 72 / 10 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 74 83 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z AND THEN 03Z UPDATE. SMALL CLUSTER OF RAIN
AND THUNDER OVER FAR SW METRO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST AT 20-25 MPH. WILL HOLD ONTO THUNDER AT ARLINGTON/KGKY WITH
JUST VCSH OR -RA AT ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH 07Z/2 AM.
WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS FROM THE PRE DAWN HRS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. SEVERAL SMALLS MCV/S NOTED ON RADAR
IMAGERY WILL THROW EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE MIX WITH A
MOIST-ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. EVEN THE HIGH RES MODELS
LIKE THE TTU WRF...ARW EAST AND HRRR ARE STRUGGLING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...TIMING CONVECTION REMAINS TENABLE AT BEST WITH OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE ON NAILING DOWN TIMES. FEELING IS TO GO WITH BEST
DIURNAL AVERAGES WITH VCSH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
VCTS 21Z-02Z. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SE/S WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 KTS...MORE GUSTY A VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER.
05
&&
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS BEGUN TO LOSE INTENSITY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FWD 00Z RAOB AND FWS VWP DATA SHOW ONLY
LIGHT WINDS (AROUND 15KTS OR LESS) WITHIN 15KFT OF THE SURFACE.
THE MEANDERING CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING IS EVIDENCE OF THE WEAK FLOW. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS 3-MILE LAYER...THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
OUTFLOW DOMINANT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND THE INCIDENCE OF THUNDER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CLUSTER IN
THE VICINITY OF GRANBURY...WHICH IS SLIDING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE BENEFITING FROM THE WEAKNESS IT HAS CREATED IN THE
MID-LEVELS...ITS VORTICITY IS NOTICEABLY LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE
MCV THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO EASTLAND COUNTY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT THIS AREA WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A
DIMINISHING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT)...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION (25-30KTS) WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NEGLIGIBLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING
THUNDER WILL BE WHERE THE EASTWARD MOVING GRANBURY CLUSTER
INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING CONVECTION APPROACHING THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SUNSET WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE
MUCAPE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ONCE SURFACE HEATING IS LOST...WE EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE SINCE MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
(20%-30%) POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY WEATHER WISE TO TODAY SINCE
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE REGION-WIDE.
SINCE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND ALL BRING THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY
12Z TUESDAY. THIS LOCATION SHOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR SOME WIDE SPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND STILL DEPENDS ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. WE ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEE SOME RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW FROM OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IF THIS
VERIFIES IT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LIFT
SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 69 88 68 85 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
WACO, TX 68 86 68 85 70 / 30 20 20 30 40
PARIS, TX 66 84 65 85 67 / 30 20 20 30 30
DENTON, TX 68 86 67 85 68 / 30 20 30 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 68 86 66 83 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
DALLAS, TX 70 86 68 84 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
TERRELL, TX 68 85 66 84 68 / 30 20 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 67 85 67 83 69 / 20 20 20 30 30
TEMPLE, TX 67 84 67 83 69 / 30 20 20 30 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 86 63 82 66 / 40 30 40 40 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1245 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY REALLY LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIGHTER SHOWERS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THE
REST OF TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOWY RANGE WHERE LIGHT
RAIN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THAT LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH CIRRUS IS IN THE AREA TOMORROW. LACK OF
CIRRUS WOULD MEAN A HIGHER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WHILE A LOT
OF CIRRUS WOULD CERTAINLY SHUT OFF FLASH FLOOD CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP LOCATIONS AND TIMING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS A BIT CONCERNING AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF IS
MAKING ITS WAY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BLOSSOM OVER CONVERSE COUNTY AND OVER THE SNOWY RANGE. EVEN
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION UNDER THE
CIRRUS BLOWOFF EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE
SLOW...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT.
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OUT OF COLORADO. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON QPF
PLACEMENT. GFS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. ECMWF HITTING THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE
OVER TO THE SNOWY RANGE...WHILE THE NAM IS HITTING THE SNOWY RANGE
PRETTY GOOD. DID A BLEND OF THE MODELS ON QPF HITTING THE
MOUNTAINS PRETTY HARD WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TONIGHT. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
STALLED OUT THUNDERSTORMS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...PWATS OUT BY RAWLINS
ARE UP TO 3/4THS OF AN INCH. WHERE EVER THESE STORMS
DEVELOP...FOLKS UNDERNEATH THEM ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF RAIN.
ONE LAST ITEM OF CONCERN...LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS CONVECTION
FURTHER EAST...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOST OF
LARAMIE COUNTY. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THE EVENING SHIFT
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WATCHES AS THEY ARE THOUGH...GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS.
PRECIP WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH/CENTRAL COLORADO. VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL WYOMING. ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST
BULLISH ON QPF...WITH WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWFA. ALL THREE MODELS ARE HITTING THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BASED
ON THIS TREND FOR A MAJOR RAIN ON SNOW EVENT OUT THERE. WILL
UPDATE THE HWO TO HIT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SUNDAY. LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FOR CARBON COUNTY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500J/KG. WILL BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OUT THERE TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN SOME AREAS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE WITH
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW TO MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT
WORKS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS AND THE NEXT LOW SWINGING DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND FAIRLY WARM IN THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME. SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB
TEMPS AT +14C OVER THE WESTERN ZONES COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
SNOWMELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIDWEEK AS WELL (SOMETHING THAT
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH). BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
INTEREST WE NOW NOTE HOW THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DRAW
PACIFIC MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FROM WHAT WOULD
POSSIBLY BE LEFTOVER OF A SHEARED-OUT TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA. IT
IS WAY TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS NOW TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHO
IMPACTS AT THE AREA TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. LOOKING AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE POTENTIALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A MOIST
AIR MASS COMBINES WITH FUELS THAT ARE IN GREEN-UP. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MOST DAYS...WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DISTRICT. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MON-WED. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVE LIGHT THRU THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN
EARNEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014
CONTINUING SNOWMELT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREATE CONTINUED RIVER RISES ON THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE RIVER TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHICH COULD ADD TO FURTHER RAPID RISES.
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY FOR
SUNDAY AS A RESULT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE SNOWMELT EVEN MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE...AND NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
PLEASE SEE FFACYS FOR PUBLIC INFORMATION REGARDING CURRENT
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST OF EASTERN MA AND RI AS OF 1030 AM BUT
LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS. IN SOUTHERN NH...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA...AND NORTHERN CT SKIES WERE SUNNY. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT IN EASTERN AREAS.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -20C AND FORECAST TO WARM TO ONLY -18C BY
00Z. WITH SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70-75 RANGE OVER THE CT VALLEY
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY NH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP FOCUSES MOST
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MA AND RI BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST HEATING AND
MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE IN CT AND WESTERN MA. SO...WE HAVE
CHANCE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE KEPT THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHERLY 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
GUST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS BUT MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL. THE HAIL COULD REACH 1 INCH DIAMETER IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS.
SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...PEOPLE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE SKY AND
REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES.
NOTING CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL TEND TO KEEP A
GENERALLY NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...BRINGING SHORT WAVES ACROSS
WITH SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
WARM AIR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...BUT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND NEW BRUNSWICK TRY
TO INTRUDE. BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH... RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECENS MEANS. OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVE IN
THE BUILDING NW UPPER FLOW LATE THIS WEEK NOTED.
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW BLASTS S OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC IN THE UPPER
FLOW...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY S-SW OUT OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND S ME. WILL SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE INTO NE MA/S
NH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO WORK S.
WILL ALSO SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH H5
TEMPS BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...ALONG WITH THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE E COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ALSO NOTING FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES
IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S AROUND -1. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...SO WILL SEE E-NE WINDS PICK
UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS OFF THE OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 50S ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND
50 FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUE RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY ALONG THE
E COAST BEFORE FALLING BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FROM W CENTRAL MA/W RI AND NE CT WESTWARD.
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES NOSES ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL PATTERN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE GUSTY E-NE WINDS ALONG S COASTAL
AREAS UP TO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ONLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON THU.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND EVEN A FEW CLOSED LOWS CROSSING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS THIS FAR OUT GENERALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THESE
FEATURES...AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT
CONTINUITY GOING IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING SCT SHOWERS LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI. NOTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS
IN EASTERN MA AND RI BURN OFF BY NOON. OTHERWISE VFR.
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...
PRODUCING HAIL AND UP TO 35 TO 45 KT WIND GUSTS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY PRECIP.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GUST UP TO
25 KT FOR E COASTAL TERMINALS.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND E-NE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KT. SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS MAY START TO DIMINISH DURING THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/EVT/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS JACKSONVILLE
THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GA. PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY AND INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE WNW
INTERIOR AREAS BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z.
MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT PASSED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ARE NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE EAST COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
L/V SURFACE WIND EARLY AND SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND
16Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SO PLACED VCSH IN THE KAPF TAF BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
WILL ONLY PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THEY PUSH WELL INLAND.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE, TO THE NORTH, WILL HOLD ON AND KEEP THE WEATHER
MOSTLY QUIET FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE SEA BREEZE AND THE GULF
BREEZE COLLIDE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
BY MID WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE, ALLOWING
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE REGULAR
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. IT IS SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA
MOSTLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH WAY THINGS WILL GO. WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE GULF COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EAST
COAST SITES WITH ANOTHER WELL ESTABLISHED GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. A
FEW SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT KAPF BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
CARRY MORE THAN VCSH ATTM.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. NO SWELL IS EXPECTED AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 86 77 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 88 77 87 76 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 90 72 91 70 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP GENERALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD. THE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -13 C. THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN H5 ELONGATED VORTICITY
LOBE IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC WRF
DISPLAYS LITTLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY BUT DOES
INDICATE AN INCREASE TONIGHT. THE 03Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PART EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO CONTINUED THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY HIGH
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS THE WARMER
GUIDANCE BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. THE MODELS INDICATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS
DISPLAY CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT
CAE/CUB UNTIL AROUND 13Z. EXPECT STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE
CSRA TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS TIME AS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATER TODAY...BUT WILL MENTION VCSH AT AGS/DNL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT. FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
645 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper low that has been sitting over the Desert Southwest over
the past several days will be moving out of the central Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains during the first few days of the extended
period. Monday morning, the upper low will be located along the
Colorado/New Mexico border while a shortwave trough rotates north
around the east side of the low through central Kansas. Model
soundings are not overly unstable through this time period. Given
that the upper level cold pool associated with the low will be
moving out over western Kansas, I would expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms develop during the day. Showers
and storms should be more focused over central Kansas with the
shortwave as it moves north during the day.
The upper low moves out through the Panhandle region into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and continues southeast on Wednesday.
As the upper low moves east, there will be some lingering chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and south central
Kansas, closer to the upper low. Far western Kansas should dry out
as upper level ridging builds eastward.
Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge dominates the central
Plains. Chances for thunderstorms will increase toward the weekend
as southwesterly flow aloft increases and shortwave troughs lift out
of the southwestern states through the central and northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Areas of light rain and isolated thunderstorms will impact mainly the
Dodge City and Hays TAF sites through this morning. The precipitation
will move northeast away from the TAF sites by late morning. By late
afternoon, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop
again over far southwest Kansas. For now will carry VCTS for a few
hours late this afternoon and evening at the Garden City and Dodge
City TAF sites for this possibility.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 40 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 30 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 40 40 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 20 30 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ON MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. WHAT IS MORE
UNRELIABLE FROM THE MODELS IN THIS CASE IS THE SFC DEW PTS...WHICH
FEEDS INTO THE MODELS SHOWING TOO GREAT OF INSTABILITY AND ALSO TOO
MUCH QPF. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DUE TO
SFC DEW POINT PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW PTS WILL
MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. DO THIS THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT OF MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE KEWEENAW DRY
AS LAKE MODERATION WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING THERE.
KEPT BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF BEST
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE FORMATION/PASSAGE COINCIDE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 14C...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT JUST S/SW OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GEM...HOWEVER...ARE SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SFC RIDGING FROM THE N. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS IN BRINGING THE SFC RIDGE IN FASTER...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT S OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS
WILL BE 12-13C WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S INLAND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED AND THU LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS KEEP SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE W OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO FRI AND SAT...BUT THE
GENERAL PATTER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 17C. IF THIS
VERIFIES...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WOULD LIKELY RESULT. AT THIS
TIME WILL RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A DRY SW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY
WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THE
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WL TAP A MOISTER AIRMASS TNGT AND LEAD TO INCRSG
MID CLDS LATE...THE LLVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO
PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE ON MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE ARE UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND TRAVERSING THE RIDGE... BUT IS A
BIT TOUGH TO SEE THEM GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF OBSCURING CIRRUS. THE
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE IS NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRUDGINGLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK
TOWARD THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE WHEN
THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT... BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME... WE WILL STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BENEATH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS... LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES BECOMING NEGATIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MINIMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST... SO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... AS WELL AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HOWEVER... THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS VERY WEAK WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION BEING LARGELY
OFFSET BY THE DESCENT OF THE ISENTROPES OVER TIME AS THINGS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA... AND KEEP THINGS DRY FROM A
QG DRIVEN PCPN PERSPECTIVE. BUT... WITH INSTABILITY WORKING BACK
INTO THE AREA... SOME POTENTIAL WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES... IT STILL MAKES SENSE TO
INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD LOOK BETTER BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. WENT REASONABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS... BUT DID KNOCK DOWN NUMBERS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEST FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TODAY. HOWEVER... WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED ONCE AGAIN... IT IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE READINGS IN
THE WEST COULD OVER-ACHIEVE ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
BY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS DO DROP THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK GOOD WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HINT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DROPS IT SOUTH OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME MID 80S IN THE WEST...IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME ECHO TRAINING NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA THEN. RATHER HIGH CAPE VALUES INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD H5 HEIGHTS OVER 582
DECAMETER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK COOLING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOULD BE A NICE THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RANGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD... WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE FORCING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE TAIL END...
WITH CHANCES LIKELY INCREASING IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FORECAST PERIODS.
HOWEVER... THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH GOING ON IN TERMS OF
MOISTURE RETURN... INCREASING INSTABILITY... WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET...
AND WEAK LIFT VIA WARM ADVECTION FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN TIME FRAME CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
FROM AROUND 22Z THROUGH 06Z... WITH CHANCES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AND AN EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED COVERAGE...
KEPT THINGS AS VC IN THE FORECASTS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS WHILE WE GET DEEPER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
AND TIMING OF PCPN THIS EVENING IS FAIRLY LOW... AND IF IT OCCURS
THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS. BUT... GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE DECIDED TO JUST INCLUDE VC CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. VARIABLE WIND LESS THEN 5 KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS/FOG. EAST
WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY DUE TO STRATUS/FOG.
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
758 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER THUS FAR THIS YEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONISIBLE FOR ALL THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND HAS
LEFT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA CLOUD FREE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS
TO REMOVE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES OVER MAINLY MOHAVE
COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS UNLIKELY
THEY WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. -ASG-
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
231 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
STUBBORN BAND OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL
SECURITY SITE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF CLARK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THERE WERE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OF 35 DBZ.
A 35 DBZ RETURN PRODUCED SPRINKLES OVER THE OFFICE AROUND 130
AM...SO PRESUMABLY THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND.
AMONG THE HIGH RES MODELS...THE HRRR WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE 06Z NAM12 ALSO INITIALIZED THE LIGHT PRECIP
REASONABLY WELL. BOTH MODELS END THE PRECIP BY SUNRISE...SO TRENDED
THE FORECAST THIS WAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW STABLE AIR
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MANY
MODELS ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY AND PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WHOLE THE MODELS SHOW LESS PRECIP
THERE THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY...AND NOTHING HAPPENED THEN...SO
CHANCES TODAY ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES. KLAS SHOULD
REACH 100F ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ACTUALLY TANKED BEYOND THURSDAY ON TONIGHT`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. INITIALLY A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THEN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER AS
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THE FIRST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE
BIG WILD CARD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE AMANDA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOVE THIS MOISTURE TOWARD ARIZONA
STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LIFT IN NORTH ACROSS THAT STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE GRIDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN NEARBY TIME PERIODS AS WELL AS
IN THESE PERIODS. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT UP - IF AT ALL - AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE GETS. TEMPS SHOULD
LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, SPEEDS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AS
THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE DEEPER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MAIN SET-UP. THE
GFS AND DGEX SHOW A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN ON THE GEM AND ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 00Z GEM AND
ECMWF NOW SPLIT ENERGY OFF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TAKE IT OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ALOFT NORTH FROM NW MEXICO. WHILE
THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY EITHER WAY, HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE IS A BIG
QUESTION. FOR NOW, I SHOWED STATUS-QUO WITH TEMPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF PATTERN WOULD
PUT TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO 100 IN VEGAS BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT KLAS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS
PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PWS ARE A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AFTERNOON TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 00
UTC WRF-NMM. THE RESULT WAS AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
UPON FRONTAL POSITIONING AS REFLECTED BY THE 00 UTC SPC STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY...SSEO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS ARE THE SLOWEST ACROSS THE EST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY AND PARTS OF STARK COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING
THE SATURDAY EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PARTS OF EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND WOULD BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. THE MAIN RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO
MONITOR EARLY THIS WEEK INCLUDE THE HEART AND CANNONBALL
RIVERS...DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING
IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES OF
NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER QUASI
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FAST FLOW ALOFT HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REGARDS TO MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ARCHING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS.
SHEAR IS GREATER ACROSS THE WEST...AROUND 30-35 KTS. HOWEVER...ML
CAPE WILL BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SLOWLY PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE EVENT
THAT SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER ARE INCLUDED IN THE KDIK/KBIS/KJMS/KMOT
TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE THUNDER IMPACTS ARE
HIGHEST. IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 00
UTC WRF-NMM. THE RESULT WAS AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
UPON FRONTAL POSITIONING AS REFLECTED BY THE 00 UTC SPC STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY...SSEO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS ARE THE SLOWEST ACROSS THE EST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY AND PARTS OF STARK COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING
THE SATURDAY EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PARTS OF EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND WOULD BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. THE MAIN RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO
MONITOR EARLY THIS WEEK INCLUDE THE HEART AND CANNONBALL
RIVERS...DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING
IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES OF
NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER QUASI
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FAST FLOW ALOFT HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REGARDS TO MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ARCHING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS.
SHEAR IS GREATER ACROSS THE WEST...AROUND 30-35 KTS. HOWEVER...ML
CAPE WILL BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SLOWLY PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE EVENT
THAT SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER ARE INCLUDED IN THE KDIK/KBIS/KJMS/KMOT
TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE THUNDER IMPACTS ARE
HIGHEST. IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. SHOULD SEE THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN NPAC. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN STILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG AND OTHERWISE LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. KIMBALL WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT 230 AM MDT AND AM SEEING SOME HINTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY ELSEWHERE ON AREA WEBCAMS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LLVLS WILL KEEP T-TD SPREADS LESS THAN 3 DEG F...SO CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST. EXPANDED THAT AREA INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS WOULD EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO FUNNEL UP
THE VALLEY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLUMN
DRIES QUITE A BIT AFTER 15Z...SO DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO LAST VERY
LONG MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS.
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL IMPROVE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. 700-500 MILLIBAR
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE IS EVIDENT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH PRECIP SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CO. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BY AFTN. STILL HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE MIDLVL DRY SLOT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. COULD HAVE SOME MORE CIRRUS BLOW
OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT IF NOT...THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND PTNL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN CONVECTION AS THE HRRR MIGHT SUGGEST. HOWEVER THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE TO THE WEST IN THE MORE PRONOUNCED 700
TO 300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE. THE WESTERN FOCUS OF THIS EVENT SUPPORTS
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS
EJECTING OUT SO EARLY...THE GFS SUGGESTS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE A
FEW KTS STRONGER AND STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE STATIONARY...BUT
STILL NOT MOVING ALL THAT QUICKLY. STRONGER FLOW COULD ALSO MEAN
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION AND MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FCST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PW VALUES ARE
WELL OVER A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF OVER A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA...SUSPECT SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION WILL ROB A
BIT OF THE MOISTURE AND KEEP COVERAGE FROM BECOMING ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. STILL...COULD BE QUITE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION OF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON EXISTING SNOWPACK.
WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED. MODELED CAPE VALUES ARE
LESS THAN 200 J/KG DURING THIS TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NIL. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CWA ON MON...BECOMING MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED BY TUE AFTN WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 14 C
ABOVE RWL TO 10 C OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 IN THE VALLEYS...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT WARM GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND 700 MB
TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14C ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THIS
WAA PATTERN. RESULTING MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITHIN THE 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST. EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000
FT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY
THE 70S. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SNOWMELT IN
THE HIGH PEAKS...AND THUS EXPECT RAPID RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS AN INCREASING
CONCERN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO
MARGINAL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SW
WINDS ALOFT INCREASING A BIT AND ADVECTING IN MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD 70S
AND 80S WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BATCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC STREAM UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHES
ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ENERGETIC AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE JET APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...SO COULD
SEE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
SO...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY MIDWEEK...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AREAS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST
SFC FLOW. WILL SEE CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH 14-16Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY
TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KLAR AND KCYS
WHERE WEAK NNE UPSLOPE WINDS MAY PRODUCE LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE ON SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING BY
LATE THIS WEEK. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALSO
LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS PUSHED WATER LEVELS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AT THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE AND THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER AT SARATOGA. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COMBINE
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED RIVER RISES ALONG MAJOR MAIN STEM RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ADJACENT TO THE SOURCE
OF THE SNOWMELT. DEEP SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HEAVY RAIN ON THIS SNOW WILL CREATE
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS AS SNOW COULD MELT RAPIDLY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS ON SUN FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED TO JUSTIFY THE EXPANSION
OF THE WATCH. REFER TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
FLWCYS AND FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. SHOULD SEE THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN NPAC. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN STILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG AND OTHERWISE LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. KIMBALL WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT 230 AM MDT AND AM SEEING SOME HINTS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY ELSEWHERE ON AREA WEBCAMS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LLVLS WILL KEEP T-TD SPREADS LESS THAN 3 DEG F...SO CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST. EXPANDED THAT AREA INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS WOULD EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO FUNNEL UP
THE VALLEY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLUMN
DRIES QUITE A BIT AFTER 15Z...SO DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO LAST VERY
LONG MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS.
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL IMPROVE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. 700-500 MILLIBAR
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE IS EVIDENT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH PRECIP SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CO. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BY AFTN. STILL HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE MIDLVL DRY SLOT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. COULD HAVE SOME MORE CIRRUS BLOW
OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT IF NOT...THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND PTNL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTN CONVECTION AS THE HRRR MIGHT SUGGEST. HOWEVER THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE TO THE WEST IN THE MORE PRONOUNCED 700
TO 300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE. THE WESTERN FOCUS OF THIS EVENT SUPPORTS
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS
EJECTING OUT SO EARLY...THE GFS SUGGESTS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE A
FEW KTS STRONGER AND STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE STATIONARY...BUT
STILL NOT MOVING ALL THAT QUICKLY. STRONGER FLOW COULD ALSO MEAN
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION AND MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FCST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PW VALUES ARE
WELL OVER A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF OVER A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA...SUSPECT SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION WILL ROB A
BIT OF THE MOISTURE AND KEEP COVERAGE FROM BECOMING ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. STILL...COULD BE QUITE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION OF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON EXISTING SNOWPACK.
WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED. MODELED CAPE VALUES ARE
LESS THAN 200 J/KG DURING THIS TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NIL. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CWA ON MON...BECOMING MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED BY TUE AFTN WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 14 C
ABOVE RWL TO 10 C OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 IN THE VALLEYS...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT WARM GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND 700 MB
TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14C ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THIS
WAA PATTERN. RESULTING MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITHIN THE 80S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST. EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000
FT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY
THE 70S. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SNOWMELT IN
THE HIGH PEAKS...AND THUS EXPECT RAPID RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS AN INCREASING
CONCERN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO
MARGINAL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SW
WINDS ALOFT INCREASING A BIT AND ADVECTING IN MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD 70S
AND 80S WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BATCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC STREAM UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHES
ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ENERGETIC AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR SATURDAY. COULD SEE A RETURN OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE JET APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...SO COULD
SEE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
SO...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY MIDWEEK...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AL THO
IMPACTS AT THE AREA TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. LOOKING AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE POTENTIALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE ON SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING BY
LATE THIS WEEK. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALSO
LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS PUSHED WATER LEVELS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AT THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE AND THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER AT SARATOGA. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COMBINE
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED RIVER RISES ALONG MAJOR MAIN STEM RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ADJACENT TO THE SOURCE
OF THE SNOWMELT. DEEP SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HEAVY RAIN ON THIS SNOW WILL CREATE
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS AS SNOW COULD MELT RAPIDLY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS ON SUN FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED TO JUSTIFY THE EXPANSION
OF THE WATCH. REFER TO FFACYS FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
FLWCYS AND FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
HYDROLOGY...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1042 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ALREADY A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING. WILL BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WITH
THE PUEBLO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FALL TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DRIER AIR MAY HELP CLEAR SKIES AND
ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. A WEAK PUSH FROM THE NORTH HAS SET UP
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONVERGENCE ALONG IT MAY
HELP STORMS FORM.
SINCE CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO FORM...DON`T THINK THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THINGS. EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE LATEST RAP IS ALSO SHOWING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF
I-25. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK THOUGH MAY TWEAK POPS UP
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. STILL A SLIGHT THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SWRN CO EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THUR THIS AFTN. BY TONIGHT IT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE
OVER ERN CO AS A WK BNDRY MOVES SOUTH FM SERN WY INTO NERN CO BY
AFTN.
OVERALL THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
1. THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
LVL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO MOVES NNW ACROSS THE
AREA IN SELY MID LVL FLOW. AS A RESULT THIS WOULD LIMIT HEATING
THIS AFTN AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONGER TSTMS OVER NERN CO AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS TO A MINIMUM WHICH WOULD REDUCE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH AS WE SAY YESTERDAY A FEW STORMS STILL WERE
ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS.
2. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO BREAK APART AND
ALLOWING FOR BETTER HEATING THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ALLOWING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. IF THIS SCENARIO DVLPS IT
APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FM NORTH OF DENVER TO THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE
WEAK BNDRY MOVING SOUTH FM SERN WY ENHANCES LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION WITH ESE MID LVL FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LYR THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE BNDRY. OVERALL
THIS WOULD BE THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
3. THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SCENARIO BETWEEN #1 AND #2 WHERE WE SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WHICH
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT NOT A WIDESPREAD
EVENT.
AT THIS POINT ITS REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SCENARIO IS FAVORED AS IT
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY THERE ALSO COULD BE
SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL.
IN THE MTNS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL BY MIDDAY WITH
THE SNOW LEVELS ABV 10000 FEET WHERE A FEW INCHES MAY OCCUR. FOR
TONIGHT MOST PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MODELS HAVE AND UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
THEN DOWNSLOPING MONDAY OVER NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST
OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE UPSLOPING WITH NORMAL TRENDS AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE PROGGED ON MONDAY...
DRYING OUT A TAD MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY IS DRIER AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DRIES A BIT MORE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
40S F FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THEY DECREASE A BIT. CAPE
IS PRETTY LIMITED BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATER DAY TUESDAY...
THEN NO AREAS OF THE CWA ON ANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING VALUES ABOVE
1000 J/KG. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE MORNING INCLUDED. THERE IS NOTHING
AFTER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TAD PROGGED
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA ONLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
POPS...WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN
BARELY NOTHING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
WARM UP ANOTHER 2-4 C FROM MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS NOT
GREAT...BUT INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN AFTER 18Z.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
IF A STRONGER STORM DOES MOVE ACROSS COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FOR 30 TO 45 MINUTES. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT SHOULD BECOME
EASTERLY AROUND 18Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS MAY MOVE ACROSS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS IN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES ARE RUNNING
HIGH DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES TO ALERT PEOPLE OF THE
HIGH WATER.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL ADD TO
THE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL COLORADO. THERE
WILL BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN AND
STAY OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR AN HOUR OR 2.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1233 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE
WORCESTER HILLS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ALREADY 71-73 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND ON
TRACK TO REACH MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -20C AND FORECAST TO WARM TO ONLY -18C BY
00Z. WITH SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70-75 RANGE OVER THE CT VALLEY
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY NH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP FOCUSES MOST
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MA AND RI BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST HEATING AND
MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE IN CT AND WESTERN MA. SO...WE HAVE
CHANCE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE KEPT THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHERLY 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
GUST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS BUT MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL. THE HAIL COULD REACH 1 INCH DIAMETER IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS.
SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...PEOPLE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE SKY AND
REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY***
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
MONDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +12C WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY/WARM AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN
MOST LOCALES. THIS EVEN INCLUDES MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS
THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE. EVEN MUCH OF CAPE COD WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT SURE IF WE WILL
EVEN SEE THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES.
NOTING CONTINUED AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL TEND TO KEEP A
GENERALLY NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...BRINGING SHORT WAVES ACROSS
WITH SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
WARM AIR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...BUT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND NEW BRUNSWICK TRY
TO INTRUDE. BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH... RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY WORKS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECENS MEANS. OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVE IN
THE BUILDING NW UPPER FLOW LATE THIS WEEK NOTED.
DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW BLASTS S OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC IN THE UPPER
FLOW...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY S-SW OUT OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND S ME. WILL SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE INTO NE MA/S
NH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO WORK S.
WILL ALSO SEE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH H5
TEMPS BETWEEN -12C TO -14C...ALONG WITH THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE E COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ALSO NOTING FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES
IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S AROUND -1. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...SO WILL SEE E-NE WINDS PICK
UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS OFF THE OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 50S ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND
50 FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUE RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY ALONG THE
E COAST BEFORE FALLING BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FROM W CENTRAL MA/W RI AND NE CT WESTWARD.
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES NOSES ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL PATTERN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE GUSTY E-NE WINDS ALONG S COASTAL
AREAS UP TO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ONLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON THU.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND EVEN A FEW CLOSED LOWS CROSSING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS THIS FAR OUT GENERALLY HAVE TROUBLE TIMING THESE
FEATURES...AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST. FOR NOW...KEPT
CONTINUITY GOING IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING SCT SHOWERS LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI. NOTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE... PRODUCING
HAIL AND UP TO 35 TO 45 KT WIND GUSTS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN EASTERN
MA AND RI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FOG COVER...THEN
VFR. OTHERWISE VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ONE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GUST UP TO
25 KT FOR E COASTAL TERMINALS.
MAY SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT MIXING
OVER THE LAND. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ISSUE THE HEADLINES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT...WEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND E-NE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KT. SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS MAY START TO DIMINISH DURING THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...GAF/FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
117 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. CURRENT MODELS RUNS SHOW WIND CONTINUING AT
AROUND 5-7KT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO ONLY
BLANKETED THE LIGHT EAST WIND AFT 02Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR BUT TOOK OUT
MENTION OF VCSH IN THE KAPF TAF SINCE IT APPEARS AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND, THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS JACKSONVILLE
THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GA. PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY AND INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE WNW
INTERIOR AREAS BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z.
MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT PASSED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ARE NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE EAST COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
L/V SURFACE WIND EARLY AND SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND
16Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SO PLACED VCSH IN THE KAPF TAF BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
WILL ONLY PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THEY PUSH WELL INLAND.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE, TO THE NORTH, WILL HOLD ON AND KEEP THE WEATHER
MOSTLY QUIET FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE SEA BREEZE AND THE GULF
BREEZE COLLIDE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
BY MID WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE, ALLOWING
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE REGULAR
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. IT IS SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA
MOSTLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH WAY THINGS WILL GO. WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE GULF COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EAST
COAST SITES WITH ANOTHER WELL ESTABLISHED GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. A
FEW SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT KAPF BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
CARRY MORE THAN VCSH ATTM.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. NO SWELL IS EXPECTED AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper level low moves over the region Monday night into Tuesday
with thunderstorm chances decreasing from west to east towards
sunrise Tuesday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible
across central and south central Kansas Tuesday afternoon moving out
of the forecast area Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy skies are expected
Monday night with decreasing clouds on Tuesday. Upper level ridging
then builds across the Plains throughout the remainder of the week
with drier air moving into the mid levels of the atmosphere. This
will lead to mostly clear skies and dry conditions as we go into the
weekend. Winds will generally be from the southeast throughout this
period as high pressure builds across the area. Meanwhile, an upper
level long wave trough will dig into the Western United states with
shortwaves moving around the periphery. Models suggest a few of
these shortwaves moving towards the forecast area this weekend
bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise expect partly cloudy
skies. A general warming pattern is expected during the extended
period with lows starting out in the upper 50s Tuesday morning with
mid 60s possible by this weekend. Highs will start out in the lower
80s Tuesday with upper 80s expected Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The weather regime will change very little over the next 24 hours
as a large upper low sitting over the Rockies the past several
days, spins slowly east into the Great Plains. This will bring
yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
the GCK and DDC terminals late this afternoon to evening along
with brief MVFR ceilings. In addition, light winds and a very
humid airmass may bring some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions
late tonight into early on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 79 58 84 / 30 50 50 20
GCK 57 79 56 85 / 30 40 40 10
EHA 55 78 56 86 / 50 30 30 10
LBL 57 78 57 85 / 40 50 50 10
HYS 59 79 58 84 / 20 40 40 20
P28 63 79 61 82 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...AJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1256 PM CDT Sun May 25 2014
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
Convection timing and areal coverage will be the main focus again
today. Recent HRRR model forecasts were showing weak convection
developing northward into Meade-Barber counties by around 12 UTC
with an eventual more prolific spreading of showers and storms
northward from areas near Dodge City and Hays associated with
weak isentropic lift and the PV anomaly/lead shortwave. More
widespread shower and scattered storms might be expected later in
the day as the upper cold pool nudges into western Kansas
effectively increasing instability. The extensive cloud cover and
nearly null temperature tendencies will lead to another reasonably
cool, slightly humid day. As the upper low remains quasi-
stationary across over southern Colorado overnight, upper
deformation will be present, sufficient for periods of additional
showers and isolated storms. Southeast winds with slight
mild/moist upslope should result in stratus and possible locally
dense heading toward very early Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The upper low that has been sitting over the Desert Southwest over
the past several days will be moving out of the central Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains during the first few days of the extended
period. Monday morning, the upper low will be located along the
Colorado/New Mexico border while a shortwave trough rotates north
around the east side of the low through central Kansas. Model
soundings are not overly unstable through this time period. Given
that the upper level cold pool associated with the low will be
moving out over western Kansas, I would expect to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms develop during the day. Showers
and storms should be more focused over central Kansas with the
shortwave as it moves north during the day.
The upper low moves out through the Panhandle region into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and continues southeast on Wednesday.
As the upper low moves east, there will be some lingering chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and south central
Kansas, closer to the upper low. Far western Kansas should dry out
as upper level ridging builds eastward.
Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge dominates the central
Plains. Chances for thunderstorms will increase toward the weekend
as southwesterly flow aloft increases and shortwave troughs lift out
of the southwestern states through the central and northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
The weather regime will change very little over the next 24 hours
as a large upper low sitting over the Rockies the past several
days, spins slowly east into the Great Plains. This will bring
yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
the GCK and DDC terminals late this afternoon to evening along
with brief MVFR ceilings. In addition, light winds and a very
humid airmass may bring some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions
late tonight into early on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 58 80 58 / 50 30 40 30
GCK 79 56 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
EHA 77 55 78 56 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 80 57 80 58 / 20 40 40 30
HYS 80 58 80 59 / 60 30 40 30
P28 80 62 80 62 / 50 40 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...AJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS MAKING A DENT IN THE RIDGE OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS
ADVECTED A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI AS NOTED ON RUC
ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS. RESULT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EVEN AT MANY LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE LOCAL COOLING OCCURRED. GRADIENT SW FLOW IS
OBVIOUSLY KEEPING AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COOLER. FAIRPORT AND KISQ
HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS GET OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTN. IN FACT...FAIRPORT
HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY AROUND 50F. DEEP MIXING HAS BROUGHT MUCH
DRIER AIR DOWNWARD WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. RESULT HAS BEEN RH AS
LOW AS 15-20PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIEST. OUT TO THE W...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS. ADVANCING CLOUD DECK THRU SE
MN/IA INTO FAR WRN WI MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
ADVANCING NE.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING WHEN PCPN
POTENTIAL WILL REACH UPPER MI AND THEN COVERAGE OF PCPN ON MEMORIAL
DAY. AREA OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AT LEAST THRU THE
EVENING HRS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PLAINS NE. BY
12Z MON...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 200PCT OF
NORMAL. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 25KT...SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...AND INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM 850MB) COULD CERTAINLY SPARK SOME CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL
BEGINNING OVER THE FAR W AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THERE`S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA LIFTS ENE INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A ZONE OF VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE EXTENDING S INTO UPPER MI FROM MAIN AREA OF FORCING
FARTHER N IN NRN ONTARIO. SO...AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA OF LOW POPS SPREADING INTO THE W OVERNIGHT (LOW CHC FAR W
LATE). WILL CARRY SCHC POPS AS FAR E AND N AS ROUGHLY A
KCMX/KMQT/KMNM LINE BEFORE 12Z.
ON MEMORIAL DAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT
SHIFTS E...AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
UPPER MI. IF ANYTHING THERE ARE SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL
BE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON MEMORIAL DAY...BUT NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING...BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPES GENERALLY AROUND
500 TO POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000J/KG. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...BUT WILL BE
LARGELY MASKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT TIED TO DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCT/CHC CATEGORY. KEWEENAW MAY END UP DRY AS LAKE MODERATION KEEPS
INSTABILITY IN CHECK THERE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NO GREATER THAN
25KT...AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LARGER SCALE FEATURES BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGE
APPEARS TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THEN
THERE ARE HINTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COOLER EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL KEEP MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
A DRY AIRMASS HOLD STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. AT
THIS POINT...WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG ANY OF THE DAYS
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL OFFSET THE DRY AIRMASS/WARM TEMPS/LOWER RH
VALUES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
INITIAL PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER AREA OF SMALL
CONCERN FOR POPS WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN. LINGERING HIGHER H85-H7 RH ON NORTH EDGE OF STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
COULD POP ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. NIL INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK...IF
ANY ENHANCEMENT FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES VERY LOW THOUGH.
H85-H7 WINDS ARE MORE NORTHERLY SO IF SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP THEY
WOULD QUICKLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AWAY FM UPR MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS
COOLEST IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS SKIES TURN OUT
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS DOWN TO 70 PCT OF
NORMAL AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR COLDEST SPOTS COULD
DIP TO 40 DEGREES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
THETA-E ADVECTION COULD HELP POP UP MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
MINNESTOTA AND NORTHWEST WI ALONG WITH AREAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WNW FLOW AT H85-H7 WOULD STEER ANY
SHOWERS TOWARD FAR WEST CWA...VCTY OF KIWD AND ALSO WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE. ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND CHANCES WILL
BE KEPT VERY LOW. COOLING WILL STILL BE MORE NOTABLE NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS INLAND TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS MORE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS MAY FALL BRIEFLY OVER UPPER
LAKES...ALLOWING THE SFC TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY TO CROSS
CWA ON THURSDAY. IDEA OF A TROUGH PASSAGE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET BUT NOT AS MUCH THE GEM-NH. ANY DYNAMICS TIED TO THE SFC TROUGH
ARE FORECAST WELL TO NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER ONTARIO. INCREASE OF
H85-H7 RH PRECEEDS THE SFC BOUNDARY...PRETTY MUCH EXITING CWA BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ALONG THE TROUGH EITHER. WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST SURE THING FOR A DRY DAY. DIFFERENCES
THEN APPEAR IN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY IN HANDLING OF HOW
QUICK THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP AND THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY ACTIVE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN A NUTSHELL...ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS DRAWS SOME ATTENTION AS MOST
TIMES THIS IS USUALLY FLIPPED WITH THE GFS TYPICALLY QUICKER. MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR NOW GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLIES NEARBY AND
FCST MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOOSTED
TEMPS UPWARD WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO THE
EVENING HRS...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MON...AND AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF ANY SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...LOWER CIGS WILL
DEVELOP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KIWD MON MORNING...BUT
WITH A DOWNSLOPE SW TO S FLOW AT KIWD...MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
115 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA...WITH SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LARGE SCALE SW ACYC FLOW AND
VERY DRY SDNGS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS ARE LEADING TO QUIET WX OVER UPR
MI ATTM. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS OVER THE E
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...BUT STEADIER SW FLOW
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S AT SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM
IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR. THERE IS A PLUME OF MSTR SHOWN ON THE WV
IMAGERY AND RUNNING FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE DEEP SSW FLOW BTWN THE UPR RDG AND CLOSED LO SPINNING
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSEST PCPN IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SOME TS
OVER FAR NW MN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME AND IN AREA
OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN. MORE WDSPRD SHOWERS/TS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV OVER MONTANA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS OVER NW MN TO IMPACT UPR MI TODAY...HI TEMPS TODAY...AND THE
CHC OF MORE SHOWERS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVNG...WITH UPR MI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ACYC SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS NOW OVER NW MN MAY DRIFT INTO THE CWA
TODAY IN WNW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG AXIS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NW WITH H85 THETA E ADVCTN CONFINED TO NW ONTARIO. IN FACT...
MODELS SHOW AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR ADVCTING INTO THE UPR LKS THRU
THE DAY. FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C AND MIXING TO H8 PER 00Z MPX RAOB
ON THE NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS AS HI AS 80 TO 85 OVER THE
W HALF AND AWAY FM MORE EMPHATIC MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE
LLVL SW FLOW. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK SUP...BUT
LARGER SCALE SW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION OF LK
BREEZES THAT FORM NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE. FCST SDNGS INDICATE SFC
DEWPTS WL MIX OUT TOWARD 40 IN THE AFTN AWAY FM THE LK MODERATION...
YIELDING MIN RH AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...MINIMIZING FIRE WX IMPACTS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RDG AND THRU NW ONTARIO. WITH UPR MI
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AXIS OF DRIER H85-5 AIR AND DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WL REMAIN TO THE N...
TNGT SHOULD BE DRY. SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME PCPN
APRCHG WRN LK SUP/THE WI BORDER COUNTIES W OF IRON MOUNTAIN LATE AS
AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES NOW IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST IN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING WL REMAIN
TO THE N CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK...OPTED TO RETAIN SCHC POPS IN THE
AREA OVER THE W WHERE PWAT IS FCST TO APRCH 1.50 INCHES/CLOSE TO 200
PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SW FLOW AND INCRSG PWAT LATE MAINLY OVER THE W
WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL...WITH THE COOLER READINGS OVER THE E
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI AND WHERE LOWER PWAT WL LINGER LONGEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
ON MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING. WHAT IS MORE
UNRELIABLE FROM THE MODELS IN THIS CASE IS THE SFC DEW PTS...WHICH
FEEDS INTO THE MODELS SHOWING TOO GREAT OF INSTABILITY AND ALSO TOO
MUCH QPF. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DUE TO
SFC DEW POINT PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW PTS WILL
MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. DO THIS THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT OF MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE KEWEENAW DRY
AS LAKE MODERATION WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING THERE.
KEPT BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF BEST
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE FORMATION/PASSAGE COINCIDE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 14C...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT JUST S/SW OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GEM...HOWEVER...ARE SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SFC RIDGING FROM THE N. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS IN BRINGING THE SFC RIDGE IN FASTER...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT S OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS
WILL BE 12-13C WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S INLAND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED AND THU LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS KEEP SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE W OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO FRI AND SAT...BUT THE
GENERAL PATTER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 17C. IF THIS
VERIFIES...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WOULD LIKELY RESULT. AT THIS
TIME WILL RUN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO THE
EVENING HRS...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES WILL BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES NE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MON...AND AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
COVERAGE/TIMING OF ANY SHRA. IF SHRA DO OCCUR...KIWD/KSAW WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE PCPN THAN KCMX. FOR NOW...INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT
KIWD/KSAW...BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AT KIWD AND BEGINNING MID
MORNING AT KSAW. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...LOWER CIGS WILL
DEVELOP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KIWD MON MORNING...BUT
WITH A DOWNSLOPE SW TO S FLOW AT KIWD...MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON
DOMINATING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION... WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE ARE UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WEAK IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND TRAVERSING THE RIDGE... BUT IS A
BIT TOUGH TO SEE THEM GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF OBSCURING CIRRUS. THE
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE IS NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER... AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRUDGINGLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK
TOWARD THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE WHEN
THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT... BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME... WE WILL STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BENEATH DRIER AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS... LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES BECOMING NEGATIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MINIMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST... SO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... AS WELL AS SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT EVIDENT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HOWEVER... THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS VERY WEAK WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION BEING LARGELY
OFFSET BY THE DESCENT OF THE ISENTROPES OVER TIME AS THINGS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA... AND KEEP THINGS DRY FROM A
QG DRIVEN PCPN PERSPECTIVE. BUT... WITH INSTABILITY WORKING BACK
INTO THE AREA... SOME POTENTIAL WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... AND
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES... IT STILL MAKES SENSE TO
INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD LOOK BETTER BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. WENT REASONABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS... BUT DID KNOCK DOWN NUMBERS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEST FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS TODAY. HOWEVER... WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED ONCE AGAIN... IT IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE READINGS IN
THE WEST COULD OVER-ACHIEVE ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
BY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS DO DROP THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO
LOOK GOOD WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HINT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DROPS IT SOUTH OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME MID 80S IN THE WEST...IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT UNSTABLE. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME ECHO TRAINING NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AT THE MOMENT.
THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA THEN. RATHER HIGH CAPE VALUES INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD H5 HEIGHTS OVER 582
DECIMETER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK COOLING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOULD BE A NICE THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RANGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS LOWERING CIGS AND THE
CHC/S OF TSRA/SHRA ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL.
THE ONSET OF MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS AND DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH THE DEW PTS RISING AND
TEMPS ONLY RISING A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTN...LCL/S WILL LIKELY
KEEP CIGS ARND 3 TO 5K...WITH THE BEST CHC OF MVFR CIGS SW OF MPX
CWA THRU EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WHETHER THESE HIGHER DEW
PTS COMBINED WITH WIND SPDS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT TO GENERATE
FOG/BR ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED SO WIDESPREAD FG/BR REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER...EARLIER THIS MORNING THE AIR MASS WHICH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MN TODAY HAD IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS IA/NE. THIS MAY BE THE
SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NW OF
OUR CWA THRU 12Z. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE ONSET OR DEVELOPMENT
OF SHRA/TSRA. BASED ON THE LATEST HOPWRF AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS... SHRA ARE BECOMING LESS LIGHTLY THIS AFTN. ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF MN MAY SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLIER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN IA. THE BEST
SCENARIO IS TO HOLD ONTO VCSH WITH LATER FORECASTERS USING
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS FOR A BETTER TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY/EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND
WEST IN THE NW CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
THE BEST SCENARIO FOR THIS TAF IS TO CONTINUE VCSH AFTER 2Z AS THE
CHC/S OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE FIRST 6 HRS IS ALMOST NIL. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO LOWER END VFR OR ARND 3-5K DURING THE AFTN. BR OR FG IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND SPDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS. WILL HOLD ONTO 6SM AFT
6Z...BUT SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W/WNW BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NGT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. LGT WND.
TUE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NE WND ARND 5 KT.
TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. E WND 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY. SE WND ARND 5 KT.
WED NGT/THU...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NEAR TERM WX HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST BUT SHORT-RANGE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG AXIS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. BOTH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTH. THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE EVENING SET UP
THE HRRR AND RAP DEPICT. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EVENING
FORECAST JUST IN CASE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TSTMS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COULD CREATE FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PW`S GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.50" THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH PCPN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK...THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SFC BOUNDARY TO
DROP INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT OR MOVE OUT OF KOFK AND KOMA EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS NEAR FL040 CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP AROUND EASTERN NEBRASKA...BRINGING ASSOCIATED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR THOSE TO ROLL OVER TAF
SITES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MORE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1138 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER THUS FAR THIS YEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES
ACROSS DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. -ASG-
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
231 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A
STUBBORN BAND OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL
SECURITY SITE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF CLARK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE
COUNTY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THERE WERE A FEW RADAR RETURNS OF 35 DBZ.
A 35 DBZ RETURN PRODUCED SPRINKLES OVER THE OFFICE AROUND 130
AM...SO PRESUMABLY THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND.
AMONG THE HIGH RES MODELS...THE HRRR WAS CLOSEST TO REALITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE 06Z NAM12 ALSO INITIALIZED THE LIGHT PRECIP
REASONABLY WELL. BOTH MODELS END THE PRECIP BY SUNRISE...SO TRENDED
THE FORECAST THIS WAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW STABLE AIR
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MANY
MODELS ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY AND PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WHOLE THE MODELS SHOW LESS PRECIP
THERE THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY...AND NOTHING HAPPENED THEN...SO
CHANCES TODAY ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES. KLAS SHOULD
REACH 100F ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ACTUALLY TANKED BEYOND THURSDAY ON TONIGHT`S
MODEL RUNS WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. INITIALLY A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE COAST WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE THEN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER AS
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THE FIRST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE
BIG WILD CARD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE AMANDA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOVE THIS MOISTURE TOWARD ARIZONA
STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LIFT IN NORTH ACROSS THAT STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE GRIDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN NEARBY TIME PERIODS AS WELL AS
IN THESE PERIODS. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT UP - IF AT ALL - AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE GETS. TEMPS SHOULD
LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS. WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, SPEEDS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AS
THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE DEEPER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY, MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MAIN SET-UP. THE
GFS AND DGEX SHOW A TROUGH STAYING OVER THE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAS BEEN ON THE GEM AND ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 00Z GEM AND
ECMWF NOW SPLIT ENERGY OFF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TAKE IT OFF OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ALOFT NORTH FROM NW MEXICO. WHILE
THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY EITHER WAY, HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE IS A BIG
QUESTION. FOR NOW, I SHOWED STATUS-QUO WITH TEMPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF PATTERN WOULD
PUT TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO 100 IN VEGAS BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ASIDE FROM EASTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT KLAS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THAT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM GRAND FORKS TO JAMESTOWN AND INTO SELFRIDGE.
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE WILL SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH SMALL HAIL STILL A POSSIBILITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS
PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PWS ARE A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AFTERNOON TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING TO THE 10 UTC RAP AND 00
UTC WRF-NMM. THE RESULT WAS AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
UPON FRONTAL POSITIONING AS REFLECTED BY THE 00 UTC SPC STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY...SSEO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS ARE THE SLOWEST ACROSS THE EST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR GRANT COUNTY AND PARTS OF STARK COUNTY...IN PARTICULAR...FOLLOWING
THE SATURDAY EVENING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PARTS OF EASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND WOULD BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IF MORE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. THE MAIN RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO
MONITOR EARLY THIS WEEK INCLUDE THE HEART AND CANNONBALL
RIVERS...DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING
IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MEMORIAL
DAY MONDAY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES OF
NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER QUASI
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FAST FLOW ALOFT HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REGARDS TO MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ARCHING INTO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KTS.
SHEAR IS GREATER ACROSS THE WEST...AROUND 30-35 KTS. HOWEVER...ML
CAPE WILL BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SLOWLY PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE EVENT
THAT SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA
WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD KEEP KISN-
KDIK DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KBIS-KMOT-KJMS COULD TEMPORARILY REACH
IFR CATEGORY IN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY KJMS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
*NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE TROUBLESHOOTING THE KISN ASOS. RETURN TO
SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. ADDED AMD NOT SKED FOR THE KISN TAF
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT ON HAVING UPPER JET IMPACT THE WESTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST (AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/WEAKEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME HINT OF THIS IN
OLD MEXICO NOW...AND CONVECTION SOUTH OF KDRT (AREA IN LFQ OF
JET). TTU 4 KM AND HRRR 4 KM ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER OLD MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARD RIO GRANDE BY
EVENING...LOOKING TO BE NON-SEVERE BUT MAYBE STRONG. SPC MODEL
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION (AND NORMALLY THAT IS THE CASE).
THINK ANY CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE WILL BE IN THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND COULD COME MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST
(MEXICO/EWX CWA) THAN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST (BEST INSTABILITY
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT). SINCE SEVERE CONCERN IS VERY
BORDERLINE...AM NOT GOING TO PUT SEVERE IN THE FORECAST (AS MOST
OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTY WILL NOT BE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
ANYWAY). CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE (AND SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT) STARTS TO CREEP THAT
WAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST...
EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING WITH
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...A BIT COOLER MONDAY
THAN SUNDAY (SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST)...THEN MAYBE A DEGREE
COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GET A TAD WEAKER. STARTING TO LOOK
LIKE SUMMER WITH PERSISTENCE STARTING TO BE THE PREFERRED FORECAST
W.R.T. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SCEC CONDTIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE GRADIENT
WEAKENS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT. DRIEST AIR REMAINS OUT TO THE EAST
NEAR THE WATERS AND THUS AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING RAIN
OVER THE WATERS FOR NOW. MAYBE AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN STORY IN THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
WEAKENING. THE DISSIPATING LOW WILL SAG SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA
MID-WEEK. EURO CONTINUES TO HOLD A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TO THE LOW
THAN THE GFS. CANADIAN HAS NOW PULLED THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WEAKENING. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW FORECAST RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE FORECAST.
A DIURNAL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH PRECIP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING...MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
DAILY AND WEAKENING OUT WEST OVERNIGHT. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WHERE BEST
MOISTURE EXISTS. PWAT GETS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES IN VICTORIA
AREA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES
GET MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISAGREE
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...GFS BEING DRIER THAN ECMWF. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WARMEST DAYS LOOK LIKE TUES/WED BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
STEAD IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 86 75 89 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 71 86 71 87 72 / 10 30 20 30 20
LAREDO 76 90 76 98 76 / 30 30 20 10 10
ALICE 74 88 73 91 73 / 10 20 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 76 83 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 88 72 92 71 / 30 40 30 20 20
KINGSVILLE 76 88 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 76 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
453 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AS WELL...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG A COOL FRONT. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER TOP THE RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL VEER AND ALLOW DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT. BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE NIGHT WARMER AND MORE MUGGY THAN
THE PAST FEW.
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OVER NE
MINNESOTA...A MOISTURE-LADEN AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES. UPPER FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 65KT JET STREAK AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN 80/65 PARCEL WILL GENERATE 1300
J/KG OF ML CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE FALLS TO ABOUT 900 J/KG USING A
77/62 PARCEL. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY SKINNY...THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO THE HIGH PWATS AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION. SO ANTICIPATE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A PERSISENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUCKLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS UPPER RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTAINING HIGHER PWATS
WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PROGGED TO STRUGGLE TO WORK OVER
THE REBUILDING RIDGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM OR
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN...SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SINCE IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD AGAIN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER MORE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A DRIER FORECAST
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY WORK OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALTER THIS WEEK BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. AS MENTIONED THESE TRENDS
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD WILL
ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL TIME THE
FRONT WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
DRY STABLE AIR FM DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE STILL ENTRENCHED ACRS THE
AREA. BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD...MOISTURE AXIS TO THE W WL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD. COULD SEE SOME SHRA LATE TNGT AS THE MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCR IN SHRA AND SOME TSRA
TOMORROW AS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
WL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD LATE TOMORROW AFTN...AND WL REFLECT
THAT IN THE RHI TAF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS IOWA
AS WELL...BUT STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG A COOL FRONT. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER TOP THE RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...RETURN FLOW WILL VEER AND ALLOW DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS GULF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT. BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE WORDING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE NIGHT WARMER AND MORE MUGGY THAN
THE PAST FEW.
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OVER NE
MINNESOTA...A MOISTURE-LADEN AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES. UPPER FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 65KT JET STREAK AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN 80/65 PARCEL WILL GENERATE 1300
J/KG OF ML CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE FALLS TO ABOUT 900 J/KG USING A
77/62 PARCEL. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY SKINNY...THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO THE HIGH PWATS AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION. SO ANTICIPATE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
A PERSISENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUCKLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS UPPER RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTAINING HIGHER PWATS
WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PROGGED TO STRUGGLE TO WORK OVER
THE REBUILDING RIDGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM OR
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN...SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SINCE IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD AGAIN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT FURTHER WEST...MUCH OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDER MORE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A DRIER FORECAST
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY WORK OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALTER THIS WEEK BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. AS MENTIONED THESE TRENDS
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A WEST COAST TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD WILL
ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL TIME THE
FRONT WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL LOWER RATHER QUICKLY IN THIS MID-SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS TO MVFR
LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AS WELL IN MIST OR
HAZE. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS
AIRMASS TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
THE HEAT OF THE DAY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLOW
NORTHEAST DRIFT...BUT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO LARAMIE AND KIMBALL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS DRY AIR...LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS
ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SOME MODERATE SIZED HAIL.
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE ALBANY EMERGENCY MANAGER THIS MORNING...SOILS
OUT IN ALBANY COUNTIES ARE VERY SATURATED FROM COMBINATION OF
HEAVY SNOW A COUPLE WEEKS AGO...RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND WATER RELEASES
FROM THE LARAMIE RIVER ARE AGGRAVATING FLOOD CONCERNS. WE ARE
GETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY...SO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIP LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING. FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
LATER THIS EVENING TEMPORARILY...BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO INCREASE SNOW MELT FROM MONDAY ON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
NO BIG CHANGES IN THIS RELEASE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO WHERE WE MAY GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MAIN STORY MIDWEEK WILL BE THE
WARM TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT ABOVE
9000 FT AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS STILL ADVERTISES 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR +16C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CARBON...ALBANY
AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY
QUICKLY LIFTS OUT INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY LEAVING AN ELONGATED
MIDLEVEL TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVER
OUR REGION WE NOTE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SETTING UP INTO WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE AMANDA
COULD GET DRAWN NORTH INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOR
NOW WE CANT SAY WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE
WEEKEND PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SNOW MELT...BUT WE HAVE INCREASED POPS GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES)...SO STAY TUNED
FOR REFINED INFORMATION AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 LATE THIS MORNING AND SO FAR HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND ADVERTISES THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS AFFECTING THE CHEYENNE...LARAMIE...AND
RAWLINS AVIATION AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES FOR THE WESTERN
AVIATION FORECAST SITES WITH VCNTY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
AREA (NO TEMPO OR PREVAILING PERIOD OF STORMS) OVER THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA AVIATION SITES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN
LARAMIE...WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AFTER THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DIMINISHES WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME FOG
TO FORM...SO WE WENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN
TO ONE HALF MILE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LARAMIE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON LINE ON SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING BY
LATE THIS WEEK. FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALSO
LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED SNOW MELT FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SNOW MELT AND CAUSE RIVERS
TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. REFER TO FFACYS FOR
THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WARNING
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER FLWCYS AND FLSCYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ105-109-110-113-115.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB