Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/21/14

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

210 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL. A HIGH WILL BULGE IN SATURDAY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAY7. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
AND A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
TONIGHT. HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS GUSTS 38KTS BETWEEN
GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. OTHER WEATHER PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT
IS THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL ABOVE 5000 FEET
AND BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY GOES ABOVE 90 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z. HAVE PUSHED CLOUDS WELL INTO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS MOST OF SLO COUNTY WITH THE ADDITION OF DRIZZLE
TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SWING INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN EASTWARD INTO NV THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW DUMBBELLING INTO ANOTHER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE CONTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT IS ALREADY GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SIERRAS. AS THIS SYSTEM ROTATES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASE DUE TO VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRAS AND ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING 33 DEGREE K-INDEX...NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX...AND UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IF CELLS DEVELOP
STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST COULD PUSH ACTIVITY INTO
THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS OR FARTHER SOUTHWARD IF THEY CAN
MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE AZ/MEXICO
BORDER ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND BULK OF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LEFT A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH 585DM HEIGHTS BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. GFS AND GEM
MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ON MONDAY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND REDUCING TEMPERATURES
OVER CA. HOWEVER...THE ECM CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST AS WARM FOR
MONDAY UNTIL WE CAN GET BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE RIDGE
WILL BREAKDOWN OR NOT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...19/1800Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN
FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
EXTEND WELL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CEILINGS THAT DO FORM WILL
PROBABLY EXIST IN THE MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY DUE TO A VERY DEEP MARINE
LAYER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

KLAX...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

.MARINE...19/300 PM.
THE INNER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL...MAINLY WEST OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND WATERS WEST OF SANTA
CATALINA ISLAND. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN FOR PZ673 AND PZ676 WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PZ645 AND PZ670 FOR WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

201 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE REMOTE
HILLS OF THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:01 PM PDT MONDAY...COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS
NOW LOCATED WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
FIRING OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MOST RECENTLY AS CLOSE AS
COLUSA AND GLENN COUNTIES. FOLLOWING THE RAP MODEL THE UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MAKE A BEELINE FOR THE NORTH BAY LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
T-STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY HILLS...BEST CHANCE OVER
NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTY HILLS.

THE LATEST SOLUTIONS BRING THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME NW ONSHORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON...AGAIN MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/REMOTE AREAS
ROUGHLY RUNNING FROM NAPA COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DIABLO RANGE
AND OVER FAR EASTERN SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL MITIGATE MOST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MOST FOLKS THE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

BY WEDS THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO NEVADA WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ONLY
REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTEREY COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A NOTED WARMING TREND AS 850 MB TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 21-23 CELSIUS INLAND BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
FOLLOWING A BRIEF PUSH OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BY 00Z TUE. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO
SITES TONIGHT IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME AND IMPROVE IN THE 15-18Z
WINDOW. WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 30
KTS AFTER 22Z. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 06Z AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KTS WESTERLY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT 15-16Z TIME FRAME
TUE AM AND WEST WINDS PERSIST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED IN MONTEREY BAY AREA AND WILL REMAIN WITH A VFR
FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TUE AND FORECAST RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AFTER
THAT. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH END OF PERIOD AT
KMRY.

.MARINE...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND GENERATING STEEP FRESH SWELLS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

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SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

150 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

KLAX...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

.MARINE...19/0900 AM.
SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST. THE INNER WATERS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...MAINLY WEST OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND WATERS WEST OF SANTA CATALINA ISLAND. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN FOR PZ673 AND PZ676 WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PZ645 AND PZ670 FOR WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

934 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE REMOTE HILLS OF
THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PDT MONDAY...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST
UPDATES THIS MORNING BUT IN GENERAL NO BIG CHANGE IN THE EVOLUTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORM CHANCES. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY REMAINS WITH INCOMING COLD CORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

SHORT TERM...THERE`S A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE GREATER
BAY AREA AT THIS TIME BUT IN GENERAL SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S. BY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS SOMEWHAT. THERE IS
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON COAST THAT
WILL ROTATE TOWARDS CAPE MENDOCINO AND EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAM/HRRR/RUC GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE T-STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY HILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PASS OVER THE BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT WHEN SOLAR HEATING
IS LOST WHICH SHOULD KEEP NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THE LATEST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST AND HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THAT.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SIERRA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER
INSTABILITY AND SOLAR HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/T-STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HILLS THAT BORDER
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS WELL AS THE LAKE/YOLO COUNTY BORDERS. GIVEN
ALL THIS TALK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...NEED TO STRESS THAT MOST
URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THIS IS THE TYPE
OF EVENT THAT IS FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAN.

SHOULD LIGHTNING OCCUR THE LATEST SHORT TERM FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN
LOWERED DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO NOT
EXPECTING AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR NUMEROUS NEW STARTS SHOULD LIGHTNING
DEVELOP. ALSO EVEN THOUGH QPF NUMBERS LOOK VERY DRY THE CORE OF
ANY CELLS SHOULD HAVE PRECIP.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO A NOTED WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND ADVERT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH INLAND
ACROSS THE STATE OF NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST GIVEN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH ALL THAT SAID...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO PULL AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
STATES...HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH BUILDING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...PATCHY MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE 18Z HOUR AT MOST TERMINALS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHES OF
STRATUS FORMED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRF INDICATE THAT EXPANSION WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 17Z HOUR...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS INTO
THE 18-19Z HOUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER VERY BREEZY WEST WIND DAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...APPROACH MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW CLOUDS AS
EARLY AS 12Z WITH DISSIPATION AS LATE AS 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. THE
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE DISSIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS BY 19Z AROUND
KMRY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ALL DAY EVENT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

432 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...HOWEVER MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND ADVECT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...APPROACH MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW CLOUDS AS
EARLY AS 12Z WITH DISSIPATION AS LATE AS 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

359 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN.

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS NOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL MORPH INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE
NORTH COAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
FAVORABLE SW TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WHILE INSTABILITY
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS INCREASES. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SHOWER AND POTENTIAL TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS OVER 400 J/KG
IN TRINITY COUNTY AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER ARE
AROUND 7C/KM. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME HRRR MODELED REFLECTIVITY IS
UNIMPRESSIVE SHOWING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER RETURNS OVER THE EAST
SIDE OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BEST
THERMODYNAMICS AND FORCING SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. AS THE
LOW TRACKS INLAND ON TUESDAY ...WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW PATTERN IS OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST (TYPICALLY NOT A FLOW PATTERN THAT GIVES US
THUNDERSTORMS)...A PRETTY ROBUST VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON COINCIDING
WITH A FAVORABLE JET STREAK POSITION. WITH LI VALUES DOWN TO -3C
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT WAS HARD TO IGNORE...ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. STP/JT

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE
WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS
TUESDAY ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE WATERS.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
PZZ450-455.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY
PZZ470-475.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1135 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD AS OF 4 AM...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DROPPING
THE UPPER LOW DOWN THE WEST COAST...AND INTO CA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS WAS DRAWING VERY DRY
AIR UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS. W-SW WINDS AT 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH SHOULD FORCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN AND EVE FOR THE SLV AND ALL OF THE E PLAINS...SO THE
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN AN UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...

SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR. UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CA/NV ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHALLOW FRONT WHICH PENETRATES INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING MAJORITY OF THE AREA
DRY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z RUN OF NAM12 SUGGESTED PIKES
PEAK REGION COULD SEE AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM...BUT 06Z
RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HITTING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NO PROBLEM. WINDS
ARE THE BIGGER CHALLENGE AND DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD. AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FOLLOWED BY LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES...SO WILL BE HOISTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THEM
FOR NOW AS FRONT MAY BE LURKING IN THIS AREA.

FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS TOWARDS MORNING. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT
IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...THOUGH DO MIX OUT SOME OF THE DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...COULD SEE CAPE VALUES APPROACH
1000-1500 J/KG. 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH. 0-6KM
SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO IF MOISTURE CAN STAY
IN...THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES...AND THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED BY SPC IN A SLIGHT RISK. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR CLOSELY THIS DAY...BUT
HUNCH IS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT SOME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF TELLER COUNTY WHICH WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS A BIT TOO HIGH BASED.
BUT ONCE AGAIN...POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN EVERYTHING.
MEANWHILE...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.

CLOSED LOW WILL DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM
EASTWARD ACROSS NM OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE EC.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA BURN SCARS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. 0-6 KM SHEARS DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DEW POINT RETURN. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
DETAILS...BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD SEE LESS OF A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -KT

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY W-SW WINDS 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z. IT WILL BE LESS WINDY AT THE
TAF SITES ON TUESDAY.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224-230-233-237.

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

418 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN AN UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY W-SW WINDS 25-30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z AND LAST THROUGH 03Z .

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224-230-233-237.

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

620 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SKIES RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO CLEAR FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE
OCCURRING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS UNDER THE PATCHES OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. IN ADDITION...SOME MORE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BY AFTN...ESP OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES...AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. BOTH OUR LOCAL
HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW ISOLATED CELLULAR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOVING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE
LITTLE RAINFALL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY.

THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROMOTE GOOD MIXING...ALLOWING FOR
A BREEZY AFTN. NW WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY LOOK A TAD HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
ALOFT...WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S....WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER
6OS TO MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

A WARM FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY IF THIS WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA...OR IF IT WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR SOUTH.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN WED AND WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY VARY ON THE EXACT
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF. THE 00Z GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE WETTEST MODEL...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR IDEA...BUT NOT QUITE AS HEAVY. FOR NOW...WE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. INSTABILITY APPEARS
MEAGER...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS ON WED LOOK TO REACH NEAR 70...WITH 50S FOR WED
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN TAFS SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS SO LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PICK AROUND SUNRISE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
18 TO 22 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...ESP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 5
MPH TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES RETURNING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT. RH
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.
THE RIVER STAGE IS CURRENTLY FALLING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

AFTER HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A FEW DAYS AGO...RIVER LEVELS ARE
CONTINUING TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. WHILE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T ANTICIPATED...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047-054-058-063-083-084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

421 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STARTING THE DAY RATHER
CLEAR...COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...ESP OVER THE CATSKILLS AND
BERKSHIRES. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
ISOLATED CELLULAR SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AND
MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.
THE RIVER STAGE IS CURRENTLY FALLING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

215 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WEAKENING FRONT NEAR FL/GA BORDER ALONG WITH SEA BREEZES. DRIER
AIR ALOFT KEEPING PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1.0 INCH...ALONG WITH VERY
LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT...LEAD ME TO KEEP POPS LOW. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE FAR SE GA AND ALONG FL/GA BORDER WITH WEAK
FRONT...WHERE ENHANCED CU CURRENTLY DEVELOPING...WENT 30 POP
THERE...20 POP ELSEWHERE ALONG/W OF EAST COAST SEABREEZE. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD CEASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG...BUT KEEPING OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW AS
THERE`S NO GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HRRR LAMP OR MOS...TO SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT FOG. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND...60 TO 65 CLOSER TO COAST AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER.

TUE THROUGH FRI...A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS STACKED
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TUE & WED WITH LIGHT
WINDS LESS A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS INLAND. LATE NIGHT FOG
WILL BE MOST PROBABLY TUE NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS/DEW PTS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

THU & FRI THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
FL AS A TROUGH AXIS CARVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WNW WITH BREEZY WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES OVER SE GA THU & FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE CLIMO VALUES BY THU & FRI WITH HIGHS ABOVE
90 INLAND WITH THE COAST ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S DUE TO
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
INLAND TUE NIGHT...TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY THU NIGHT WITH NEAR
70 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH MON...

MEAN LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPS DOWN THE CONUS ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE NE SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
BACK ABOVE 1.25" SUN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES IN FROM THE NE.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...UPPER FORCING FROM THE MEAN LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHALLOW FORCING FROM THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO
ONLY THE 15-20% RANGE SUN & MON WITH A DIURNAL PATTERN IN
RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
HIGHS NEARING NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S COAST.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. INCLUDED VCTS
KJAX...KVQQ...KCRG...KSSI GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA
ALONG WEAKENING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND
WASHES OUT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...SETTING UP AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS MID WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 58 85 57 90 / 10 10 0 10
SSI 64 78 63 85 / 10 10 0 10
JAX 60 82 59 88 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 66 78 62 83 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 59 85 57 89 / 20 10 0 10
OCF 62 86 58 89 / 10 0 0 0

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/WOLF/WALKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

145 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

MAIN STORY FOR THIS MORNING IS THE FOG. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL SUNDAY. VSBYS ARE STILL
BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT DO THINK THAT THEY WILL SETTLE AROUND
1/4 OF A MILE WITHIN MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA BY SUNRISE.
THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...NEAR COLUMBUS...BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NOW.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE CWFA ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
OF ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA...OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. IF THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS NORTH A
BIT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. THE NAM IS DRY AND THE GFS IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLD SHRA.
THE HRRR IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLD SHRA...BUT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PEGGING AN AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE
HRRR. POPS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO
WARM AS THE RIDGING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. BY THURSDAY THOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA HELPS TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HAVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...A DAY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS THIS FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...HAVE
PUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY IS STILL AROUND...HOWEVER IT
WEAKENS. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP WITH THAT WITH POPS
OF ONLY 10 PERCENT.

STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CEILINGS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY FEW/SCT 4-5KFT. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE 09Z-14Z OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 56 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
ATLANTA 76 59 82 66 / 10 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 76 58 / 10 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 77 58 83 63 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 81 61 85 67 / 10 10 10 0
GAINESVILLE 74 55 79 64 / 10 10 10 0
MACON 79 58 83 64 / 20 10 10 0
ROME 77 58 84 62 / 10 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 57 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
VIDALIA 79 59 83 65 / 20 10 5 0

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

722 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO
WARM AS THE RIDGING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS TO VFR VALUES.
SCT CU EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN
4-5KFT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SWITCH TO
THE SE BY THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS AND HOW FAST THEY WILL GO TO VFR
VALUES.

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

325 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO
WARM AS THE RIDGING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. BY THURSDAY THOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA HELPS TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HAVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...A DAY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS THIS FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...HAVE
PUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY IS STILL AROUND...HOWEVER IT
WEAKENS. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP WITH THAT WITH POPS
OF ONLY 10 PERCENT.

STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. DO THINK VSBYS WILL BOUNCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AROUND 1/4SM BY 8-10Z AND STAY DOWN
UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE WHEN CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AND LOW
CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE. SCT AFT CU SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SE FLOW
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 56 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
ATLANTA 76 59 82 66 / 10 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 76 58 / 10 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 77 58 83 63 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 81 61 85 67 / 10 10 10 0
GAINESVILLE 74 55 79 64 / 10 10 10 0
MACON 79 58 83 64 / 10 10 10 0
ROME 77 58 84 62 / 10 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 57 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
VIDALIA 79 59 83 65 / 10 10 5 0

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

150 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS STREAMING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY VARIETY STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
TO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CUTOFF LOW SPINS ALONG THE NV AND UT
BORDER. HOWEVER...EARLY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND LEAVE SE ID IN A DRIER SPLIT FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT BEST.

VALLE/EP

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF OVER
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEPICT A CUTOFF
LOW OVER AZ/NM...THE ECMWF DEPICTS UPPER TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW. GFS SHOWS MORE A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND IS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. MODELS
COME A LITTLE BETTER INTO PHASE MONDAY WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
WA/OR COAST WITH GFS TIMING SLIGHTLY FASTER. HINSBERGER

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. HRRR HINTING AT CONVECTION REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS KIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. HINSBERGER

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND HUMIDITY HIGHER. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
HEDGES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

113 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE LATE
TUESDAY PERIOD WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXISTS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON W/V THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR EAST COAST CAUSING
DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA WAS CAUSING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE IMMEDIATE LA AND TX GULF COAST.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS THE IA SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH GROUND OVER CWA DESPITE APPEARANCE ON RADAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ENABLE ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY BUT WARMING LIKELY TO BE
TEMPERED SOME BY CONTINUED INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THUS
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 LOOKS TO DO IT FOR HIGHS...THOUGH WIND
BACKING TO SOUTHEAST ALONG IL SHORE LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS A BIT
COOLER THERE. ANOTHER WAVE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN
TIER. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH RADAR ECHOES LIKELY TO BE PRESENT
ROUGHLY I-80 AND NORTH FOR A TIME BUT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THIS EVENING PLUS MINOR CONVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF JET COULD SUPPORT SOME SHRA BUT PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF CWA AND CHANCE POPS ALONG WI BORDER. WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO AREA...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE DUE TO CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...WITH UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WARM FRONT FROM PLAINS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH AREA BY THE
MORNING AND ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH OF CWA BY
THAT TIME. SOME CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER BUT ASIDE FROM 00Z NAM12
SOLUTION...CAP FROM EML LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG UNTIL LIKELY LATER IN
THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS IN MID TEENS CELSIUS AND H925 APPROACHING 20C
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN LOW-MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE. CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS WITH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
RETURN SHOWN BY MOST GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED DEWPOINTS TOWARD
LOWER MOS BASED GUIDANCE. THUS ONLY EXPECTING MAX DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER MLCAPE VALUES. BDRY
LAYER CONVERGENCE COULD INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTH FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION INITIATION. EVENING
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION (LOW-MID
CHANCE POPS) DUE TO IMPROVING WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CONVERGENCE AS SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT WOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND AND HAIL MAIN
CONCERN DUE TO VERY MEAGER LL SHEAR. SETUP STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FAVOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS AND SEVERE THREAT AS FORCING IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG AND OVERALL INSTABILITY CONCERNS. ANY TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AS CAPE WANES.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH. DIURNAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE AT BEST OF SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT TSRA THREAT FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SHOULD ENABLE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO FORM. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL REGENERATION OF CONVECTION
BE OVER OR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR OR EVEN OVER 50 KT...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH SPC HAS INCLUDED IN
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE BECOMING LESS HUMID AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS 850 AND 925 MB
TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL FROM TUESDAY. THUS AROUND 80 OR LOW
80S APPEARS LIKELY. ALSO THINKING THAT DUE TO DECENT WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADIENT LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IF AT ALL FOR ILLINOIS SHORE AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON ALONG INDIANA SHORE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PARKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES INLAND WARMING FROM SEASONABLE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ALL IN ALL...SIGNS POINT TO A
FANTASTIC MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 160 TO 200 DEGREE RANGE LIKELY BECOMING
STEADIER 160-180 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 KT
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 45
KT TOWARD 2000 FT AGL.

* SOUTH WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY BEEN KEEPING GUST
FREQUENCY LOW BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS RANGING FROM 130 TO 230 DEGREES OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO WITH MOST OBS SHOWING 160-200 DEGREES. EXPECT THAT
THIS VARIABILITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A
STEADIER 160-180 DIRECTION TAKING OVER. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THOUGH AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 25+ KT GUSTS TOWARDS RFD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FREQUENCY
MAY DROP OFF. WINDS LOOK TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING.

BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NE
IL/NW IN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA IS STILL FAVORED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS NEXT WAVE BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT MAY REACH
RFD SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION THERE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
AT ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY COULD SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MAY PASS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER MINIMAL CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE THREAT OVERNIGHT IS LOW
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION VARIABILITY DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THIS EVENING IS
LOW. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LLWS POTENTIAL...MAY BE MARGINAL.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS TUESDAY.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED GUSTY TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY MUCH
OF THIS TIME.

MTF

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS OWN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL
INCREASE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. THIS INCLUDES FORECAST FOUR TO
MAYBE EVEN FIVE FOOT WAVES THIS EVE ALONG THE LAKE COUNTY IL
SHORE. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR RIGHT
NOW AS THE CURRENT WIND/WAVE RANGE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
CRITERIA MOST OF THE TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVER THE
OPEN WATER...THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME 25-28 KT GUSTS PROBABLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AS IT
DOES SUCH. THE STRONGER FRONT WILL PASS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014
Light sprinkles and showers passed over the nrn portion of the
state this morning as a high pressure ridge drifts eastward.
Slightly cooler max temp forecast holding well, and hourly grids
also looking pretty good. Mostly mid level clouds across the area
helping to keep those temps down. Not a lot of change expected for
the forecast and though grids will be freshened up this morning,
an update is mostly unnecessary. Will send updated zones for
morning language closer to noon.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014
High pressure ridge slipping to the east today, leaving southerly
flow across Illinois. VFR through the forecast with confidence
dwindling in the pre dawn hours. BKN mid deck main cloud cover for
the remainder of the day. Some indication of increasing RH in the
lower levels resulting in a BKN045 group for this evening and
overnight. Issues with the forecast increase after midnight as the
MOS guidance and models diverge with handling of llvl moisture.
Majority of models maintain a mid deck. Just a few hint at 025
level/MVFR early. With some stratocu to the SW at this level and
sat imagery pushing that moisture east/northeast... cannot
discount. For now, starting the trend for MVFR potential with SCT
mention in for morning.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

High pressure currently centered over Ohio continues to control
the weather across central Illinois early this morning: however,
WAA cloud cover and even a few light showers are poised just to
the west across Iowa. 07z/2am KDVN radar imagery shows scattered
echoes approaching the Mississippi River, with a few upstream
surface obs reporting sprinkles. This activity is pushing away
from 45-50kt LLJ positioned over the central Plains, so am not
expecting any measurable precip to reach the KILX CWA. Even still,
given upstream radar imagery and the most recent HRRR suggesting a
few showers tracking into north-central Illinois this morning,
have opted to include scattered sprinkles along/north of a
Rushville to Bloomington line. Aside from the sprinkles, skies
will be partly to mostly cloudy today as warm advection regime
overspreads the area. Due to cloud cover and a southeasterly flow,
warming trend will be tempered, with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 70s.

Surface winds will veer to the southwest and skies will become
mostly sunny on Tuesday, allowing high temperatures to soar well
into the 80s. Meanwhile, an upper-level disturbance tracking along
the U.S./Canadian border will begin to flatten the upper ridge
over the Midwest and push a weak cold front southward toward
Illinois. Several models develop scattered convection along the
advancing front across northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon, with
the NAM being furthest south. Airmass within the warm sector will
remain capped on Tuesday, so think storms will be confined
immediately along the boundary and will stay north of the KILX
CWA.

The front will sag southward into central Illinois on Wednesday,
providing the best chance for widespread precipitation during the
entire forecast period. With dewpoints pooling in the middle to
upper 60s near the boundary, surface based CAPES are progged to
exceed 2500J/kg. In addition, decent 0-6km bulk shear values of
40 to 45kt will support the potential for a few strong to severe
storms with large hail and strong winds Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Main question will be areal coverage of storms, as
convergence along the front will not be particularly strong.
Think scattered thunderstorms will develop, so will carry 30-40
POPs across the board accordingly.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Latest model trends continue to push the front south/southwest of
central Illinois by Thursday. WPC progs take the front into the
Deep South by Saturday, but feel this is too far south given
presence of strong upper ridging along the Gulf Coast. Adjusting
the boundary northward would place it from Missouri E/SE into the
Tennessee River Valley from Thursday through Saturday. This
position would keep most of the rain chances out of central
Illinois, except perhaps across the far S/SW CWA in closer
proximity to the front. Further north and east, high pressure will
build into the Great Lakes for the end of the week providing a dry
NE flow and slightly cooler temps in the 70s. Once the high shifts
eastward, whatever remains of the dissipating boundary will return
northward on Sunday. Potentially could see a few showers/storms as
this process occurs, but forcing will be so weak by then that a
POP is not warranted at this time. Instead, will continue with a
dry forecast for Sunday and Monday with high temperatures climbing
back into the 80s.

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1108 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* VARIABLE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEXT HOUR OR SO BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS
20-25KT MORE FREQUENT BY MIDDAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 45 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...

BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS SET UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO THE 12-15 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY AND BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS 17Z...AND EVEN
THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
VARIABILITY. GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL ALSO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FREQUENT...THOUGH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE FREQUENCY
LOW.

MDB

FROM 12Z...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST
TODAY AND WITH THAT WILL COME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE
SHOULD INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
PROBABLE BY 15Z-17Z. HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE SOME FOR WHAT
MAXIMUM GUSTS WOULD BE DUE TO THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORED TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT TODAY AND THIS IS PROMOTING LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 12Z.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR
OVER NORTHEAST IL. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TAF
SITES TODAY...NAMELY RFD...IT WILL BE LIGHT AND VFR. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE CLOSE BY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM SUNRISE
TUESDAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COUPLE HOURS AFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.

MTF

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH THAT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 150-170 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

* HIGH THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS TODAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND
TEMPORARY. LOW ON WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG.

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED GUSTY TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY MUCH
OF THIS TIME.

MTF

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

Isolated light showers will affect the central IL airports except
SPI into mid morning due to warm air advection pattern. Isolated
thunderstorms should stay north of PIA this morning. VFR
conditions still expected to prevail through tonight despite the
isolated showers this morning. Like yesterday morning the patchy
shallow ground fog will stay southeast of I-70 near the Wabash
river until mid morning. Broken to overcast mid level clouds to
affect central IL today with ceilings lowering to 4-7k ft during
this evening. South to southeast winds 5-10 kts early this morning
to increase to 12-18 kts by 15Z/10 am with gusts 22-27 kts from
late this morning into this evening. Have winds veering south at
10-15 kts overnight. 1029 mb high pressure over WV and eastern Ohio
was ridging westward across IN into eastern IL. 999 mb low
pressure over western ND and central SD and eastern CO will push a
frontal boundary se into central KS/IA by 12Z/7 am Tue. Increasing
pressure gradient over central IL today to create the gusty sse
winds. Isolated to scattered convection to stay north of I-80
tonight closer to frontal boundary.

07
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

906 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AT TIMES
GUSTING 20-25KT BY MIDDAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 45 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR RFD. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MINIMAL NEW
REGENERATION ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAND BUT THE EASTERN
FLANK CONTINUALLY ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. OVERALL THINK
THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY IS
MINIMAL THOUGH SOME SPRINKLES COULD MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE BUT STEADY GUSTS OVER 20 KT LOOK TO BE DELAYED A BIT LIKELY
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. DO EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING HOWEVER.

MDB

FROM 12Z...

A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM SUNRISE
TUESDAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COUPLE HOURS AFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.

MTF

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH THAT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 150-170 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

* HIGH THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS TODAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND
TEMPORARY. LOW ON WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG.

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED GUSTY TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY MUCH
OF THIS TIME.

MTF

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
652 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

BARNES

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

336 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON W/V THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR EAST COAST CAUSING
DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA WAS CAUSING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A NARROW RIBON OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE IMMEDIATE LA AND TX GULF COAST.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH. DIURNAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE AT BEST OF SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT TSRA THREAT FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SHOULD ENABLE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STORMS
TO FORM. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL REGENERATION BE OVER OR SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN CWA. TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BE
BECOMING LESS HUMID AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A VERY WARM DAY AS 850 AND 925 MB TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL
FROM TUESDAY. THUS AROUND 80 OR LOW 80S APPEARS LIKELY. ALSO
THINKING THAT DUE TO DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT LAKE BREEZE FLIP NOT
LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR ILLINOIS AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON ALONG IN SHORE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST
TODAY AND WITH THAT WILL COME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE
SHOULD INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING AND LIKELY BY 16Z-17Z. WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ENVELOPING THE AREA AND DEEPER MIXING...THE WIND DIRECTION IS
FAVORED TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT FOR MUCH
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES ARE
LIKELY BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE DRY ENOUGH FOR MAINLY VIRGA THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RFD IS THE AIRPORT
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED TO SEE SOME OF THIS IN NORTHERN IL. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. LOWER BUT STILL VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000FT ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH THAT WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 160-180 IN DIRECTION FROM 15Z
ONWARD.
* HIGH THAT IF ANY RAIN DOES OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELDS IT WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

VFR conditions expected through 06Z TAF valid time. Southerly flow
will increase, becoming quite gusty at times Monday, as the
pressure gradient increases ahead of a developing low pressure
system in the plains. LLWS may develop after sunset Monday
depending on the degree of surface decoupling that occurs, but
have not included it for now considering its potential arrival
only a couple hours from the end of the period. An upper level
disturbance passing near the area after daybreak Monday will
provide low to mid-level cloud cigs, but no precipitation is
anticipated.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA STARTING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY USHERING IN DRY WEATHER WITH IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK
INTO IOWA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR
INDICATES RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. SO FAR...HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
INDICATION OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL FROM THE CONVECTION OFF TO
THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. 850MB FLOW INTO THE CONVECTIVE AREA IS DECENT...BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG.

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TONIGHT/S FORECAST CONCERNING HOW
FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL GET. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING
DRIER AND PUSHING THE POPS NORTH FOR SEVERAL RUNS THIS MORNING...BUT
LATEST RUNS OF RAP HAVE STARTED BRINGING ECHOES FURTHER SOUTH AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP INITIAL FORMATION WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY FOR A TIME AFTER 0Z. BY 6Z HOWEVER COULD
SEE STORMS STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO SEE AN MCS DEVELOP AND
RIDGE THE THETA E GRADIENT AROUND THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
COULD BRING IT INTO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NAM SEEMS TO
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT A DECENT BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS
AND GENERALLY DISCOUNTED IT. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY AND VARIETY
OF SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW...THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO INCLUDE
MID CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN BORDER AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER AROUND 9Z THAT RUNS
THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCE OF A RIGHT TURNING MCS

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY. CIN DROPS
OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE MLCAPES CLIMB TO OVER 2000
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD GET INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12-15Z AND START
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BUT MOVES THROUGH VERY SLOWLY.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND...ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL FORCING...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE 18Z WED-3Z THU TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE AS QUICKLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THUS HELD POPS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
/STILL PRIOR TO 12Z/ IN THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT ALL PRECIP BY 12Z THOUGH AND THEN
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN FAVORED WARMER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
CONTINUED STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS FANTASTIC WITH WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION INITIALLY EXPECTED BUT AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW AND
THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ENABLE STEADILY WARMING TEMPS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR OF THE YEAR SO FAR
TO ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME HINTS THAT TEMPS
COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 80S IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

INCREASING MOISTURE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING UNDER THE RIDGE...BELIEVE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z KIND TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

0225Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES (MFVR) ACROSS THE NRN
SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KIND...CLOSER TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON MENTIONING ANY VCTS AND CB...SAVE FOR
KIND AND KLAF. KHUF AND KBMG LIKELY TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH (AND
WEST) TO LIMIT ANY IMPACTS FROM A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.
MVFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLEARING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF SHRA OR TS AT THIS TIME. ONLY INDICATED A LOW
STRATUS DECK AROUND 4K FT FOR THE TIME BEING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

940 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN FAVORED WARMER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
CONTINUED STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z KIND TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

758 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO WITH SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH
LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS IN VICINITY
OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. A SECONDARY AREA OF WEAK PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE HAS
ALSO LED TO A SECONDARY BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEPICTED PER 23Z RAP
ANALYSIS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 100 HPA MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000
J/KG. AS OF 23Z...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDES NORTH AND
WEST OF LOCAL AREA...BUT POCKET OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. PER SPC MESODISCUSSIONS AND CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS...UPSCALE GROWTH STILL OF SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE RISK INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY TWEAK TO SHAVE OFF POPS SOME ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. DID NOT MAKE
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO POPS AFTER 03Z WITH SOME CONCERN THAT IF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CAN CONGEAL...EASTWARD PROPAGATION WILL
ACCELERATE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS...

MAIN FOCUS RESIDES ON COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LK MI INTO
IOWA WHICH WILL BECOME THE TRIGGER POINT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONCERNS LOOM IN EXACTLY HOW THESE STORMS WILL
EVOLVE AND DROP SE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WERE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEAR. CU
FIELD HAVE BEEN RATHER SUBDUED THUS FAR ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALL
HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS RAPID FORMATION OF STORMS IN
THE 21 TO 23Z TIME FRAME. INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/SOME SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT. COLD POOL SHOULD BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH WITH CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATED A RAPID FORWARD PROPAGATION
INTO NW PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z AND OVERSPREADING AT LEAST
NORTHERN HALF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TIMING OF DAY WILL PLAY
SOMEWHAT AGAINST SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WILL FACT THAT ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL RESIDE WELL NW OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING...WARRANTING INCREASE IN POPS AND ADDITION OF
SVR WORDING. SOUTHERN EXTENT VERY QUESTIONABLE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EVENTUALLY RACE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE
LINE TO STALL OUT WITH HRRR INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ILLINOIS/IOWA MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
NOT ADDED MENTION OF HVY RAIN...BUT TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH INHERENT THREAT FOR FLOODING. WILL DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO MONITOR TRENDS.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING KEY IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS ACTUAL COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. NEW DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS SHOVED SLGT RISK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY SE THIRD OF THE AREA WHICH IS REASONABLE AT THIS
STAGE. WILL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CDFNT SHOULD BE MOVG THROUGH S-SE PORTION OF CWA AT START OF THE
PERIOD WED EVE. CONVECTION WILL PRBLY HAVE MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY 00Z AND BE LOCATED S-SE OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS A SMALL
CHC OF ACTIVITY CONTG TO DEVELOP ALONG IT, SO MAINTAINED A LOW POP
THROUGH WED EVE. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE CDFNT BY THURSDAY. SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS
TONIGHT/WED EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NERN
U.S./SE CANADA BY THU WITH ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE
SWRN CONUS WHILE IN BETWEEN RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROVIDE
OUR AREA WITH FAIR WX LATE THIS WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
MAKE SLOW E-NE PROGRESS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY CONTG THE DRY SPELL ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS THU SHOULD BE A
BIT BLO NORMAL, MODIFYING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, BUT
PROXIMITY OF UPR LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST, SO FOR NOW HELD OFF ADDING TO FCST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF
LOW LEVEL FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WHILE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSBN AS
EARLY AS 0130-0200Z. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35
KNOTS WITH THE TSRA AT KSBN GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHER WIND INCLUSION AT KFWA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERSISTING
INTO HOW WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF INTO FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT SOME MVFR CONDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH TRANSITION BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING. SLOW MOVING NATURE OF FRONT MAY POSE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE RISK WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. HOWEVER WITH
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL IMPACT THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL TS
INCLUSION FOR WEDNESDAY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

626 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY WED MORNING
AND BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
RIDGE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF SUNDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME HEATING. FRONT REMAINS LAID UP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND IS
ORIENTED FROM SW IOWA TOWARDS WATERLOO. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH SOME CONVERGENCE PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA. AS OF 19Z...CAP IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ERODING AND MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR PRESENT AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINABLE
UPDRAFTS. DCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 900 TO 1100 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...SO DOWNBURST THREAT IS VIABLE. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...STILL ANTICIPATING THE MAIN THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE 20.15Z HOPWRF KEEPS CONVECTION INITIATION IN
EASTERN IOWA...WHILE THE 20.17Z HRRR IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE SPC 20.12Z 4KM WRF
SEEMED LIKE A DECENT BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. REGARDLESS...AS
MENTIONED...STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY SUNSHINE DEPENDENT AND NOT
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO LAST MUCH LATER THAN 02Z...WINDOW OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 21Z TO 02Z. HAVE SEVERE MENTION FOR
LIKELY POPS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND WENT DRY PAST
06Z TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ANCHORED FOR A WHILE OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES.
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT EVEN MORE LIKELY THIS YEAR
GIVEN THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPS AND THE PATTERN NOT IN AN
OVERLY PROGRESSIVE STATE.

AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF IOWA
WILL BEGIN ADVANCING EAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION. UPPER LOW WILL IMPINGE ON THE UPPER
RIDGE ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS IS ACCEPTED. A MILD AND WET PERIOD
IS ON TAP LOOKING AT THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER SYSTEM AND A NEGATIVE PNA SETTING UP.

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONVECTION OVER THE THROUGH
04Z. BKN LINE OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AND MAINLY NEAR KDSM...
KALO...AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER KOTM. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT 05Z ONCE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. BY 14-15Z
WED WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP AND GUST TO 17-18KTS NORTH AREAS WITH
LIGHTER GUSTS FROM NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH END OF PERIOD FOR WED WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IF ANY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MONITOR KDSM FOR STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
03Z...THOUGH PRESENT THREAT REMAINS NORTH OF APT AT THIS TIME./REV

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS MAY 14
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

622 PM CDT Tue May 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

The forecast seems to be unfolding as expected with the latest NAM
forecast soundings showing a capping inversion holding strong over
the area through the afternoon. 19Z water vapor imagery shows a
closed low over central CA with southwesterly flow aloft. There does
not appear to be much in the way of large scale forcing within the
upper flow, and low level convergence along an inverted surface
trough appears to be marginal with not much of a CU field in the
warm sector. The HRRR does try to bring convection off the higher
terrain to the west, but again shows it weakening due to the
elevated mixed layer before it reaches central KS. So expect a dry
forecast heading into Wednesday. Have trended lows tonight a couple
degrees cooler across northern KS. With the trough axis forecast to
pivot more west to east across the forecast area, winds are likely
to become light. This combined with mostly clear skies should allow
for some decent radiational cooling and lows in the lower 60s across
the northern counties. East central KS is likely to stay south of
the trough axis in the warmer air with higher dewpoints so have kept
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Wednesday, models are in agreement that the weak boundary will
be across the area with good moisture pooling along it. The NAM and
GFS warm the boundary layer enough so that CAPE values increase to
3000 or 3500 J/kg. They also cool mid levels some so that there is
very little or no CIN by the mid afternoon. Large scale forcing
continues to look unimpressive, but there could be enough
convergence along the boundary for some isolated storms to develop
by the late afternoon. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 KTS also suggest
that if storms are able to form, they could become supercellular. At
this point low level shear parameters show little or no chance for
tornadoes so main risks with storms that form would be a hail and
wind. Highs Wednesday should not be quite as warm as models weaken
the thermal ridge over the area. Because of this highs are forecast
to be in the middle and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

Somewhat above normal thunderstorm chances continue to dominate the
middle and later portions of the forecast. Have shaded chances
slightly up and down when some confidence exists in possible
evolution, but overall confidence on timing and placement of precip
not high.

Wednesday night into Thursday night still present the more dynamic
storm periods with the stationary front keeping some minor
baroclinicity. Any local afternoon storms could easily persist in
the evening hours and keep at least modest severe weather potential,
but highest coverage for overnight Wednesday night into early
Thursday still at least moderately dependent on where convection can
be the most robust and organized to the west. Models differ on
where this will be, but some indications this could be a bit farther
south than earlier anticipated. A rather warm and moist boundary
layer should keep low-level parcels rather buoyant and NAM and GFS
agree with limited CIN through Wednesday night for at least some
severe potential. Synoptic surface high to the northeast and low the
southwest should keep at lest some low-level convergence intact for
Thursday afternoon over the area as long as overnight and early day
convection does not displace the effective front elsewhere. Corfidi
vectors turn more southeast and again may be rather parallel to the
front for overnight convection to again pass through. By Friday
afternoon, more meridional low level flow takes hold for the Central
Plains and should greatly reduce convergence, again barring
MCS-dominated surface features. GFS and ECMWF are rather consistent
with an upper wave emerging from the old trough, but this appears to
be at least partially due to previous convection. Despite weakening
mid-level lapse rates, instability should continue to be at least
modest with good moisture through the column for some storm chances
into Sunday. Better dynamic forcing aloft could commence Sunday
night into Tuesday afternoon if the GFS and ECMWF are correct with
the low finally pushing through, but of course timing ejection of
cut-off lows is difficult at best. Little change in temperatures is
forecast, but again highs will be greatly impacted by any persistent
MCS that persists.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period. NAM suggests MVFR
stratus around sunrise at TOP/FOE , but not seeing evidence of
development to the vicinity or south at this time, will monitor.
Winds initially south become light and variable, eventually
becoming east as surface front settles just along and south of the
terminals.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

218 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Issued a wind advisory for south-central Kansas as winds are at criteria
and conditions will continue through the rest of the day until early
evening via mixing/momentum transfer/tight pg. HWO/EHWO/wind grids all
updated.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

The main question today is how far east the dryline will push today.
The latest NAM12 and near-term hourly RAP model are both very
aggressive in pushing the dryline all the way into central and
south-central KS by late afternoon. This would push the 100-degree
isotherm a bit farther northeast than previously forecast. We now
have 100 degree forecast for Dodge City, Kinsley, Greensburg, Pratt
and 102 at Ashland and Coldwater. Dewpoints will crash into the
teens and even single digits (degF) late this afternoon. Winds west
of the dryline will be in the 20 to 25 knot range, but the lack of a
significant height gradient in the 850-700mb layer will preclude the
need for a wind advisory, despite the very deep mixing. The dryline
will retreat back west at sundown with a marked increase in surface
dewpoints back into the low to mid 50s as far west as Highway 283.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front push into west central Kansas late
tonight with a weak surface low pushing into central Kansas by
daybreak Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

The NAM and GFS were in decent agreement with a west to east
surface front extending across southwest Kansas Tuesday night.
North of this front a moist upslope flow will be present roughly
from highway 96 northward, however 700mb temperatures above this
level are forecast to range from 10C to 12C. Given the warm mid
level temperatures the chance for early evening convection of this
boundary appears small between 00z and 06z Wednesday.

On Wednesday A 0-2.5km thta-e ridge axis is forecast to extend
from western Kansas to near Denver. This moist upslope flow
across western Kansas will once again be present under a +10c
700mb temperature, however low level forcing and mid level
instability will improve during the afternoon as the surface
boundary near the Oklahoma border moves north. By mid afternoon
there will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms, especially
north of this surface boundary and near the 0-2.5km thta-e ridge
axis. The chance for convection will then continue and expand in
area coverage during the overnight hours as an upper level
disturbance crosses the Central High Plains. 00z Thursday Cape
values are forecast to be in excess of 2000 j/kg and 0-6km shear
greater than 40knots. Any storm which does develop will be capable
coming severe. With preciptable water values forecast between 1
and 1.5 inches across north central Kansas Wednesday night periods
of heavy rainfall will be possible. In addition baseball size hail
and strong gusty winds can be expected from some of the stronger
thunderstorms. A few tornadoes can not be ruled out near the
surface boundary that is current forecast to be located in west
central and northwest Kansas late Wednesday and early Wednesday night.

For late week into the weekend period...models remain in good
agreement with a closed low crossing California and becoming
nearly stationary over the desert southwest late week. As this
upper level system becomes nearly stationary over the desert
southwest late week, a series of upper level disturbance are
forecast to eject northward across New Mexico into Central High
Plains. Across western Kansas late week and early this weekend a
surface boundary is forecast to drift north and south but
generally remain somewhere between the Oklahoma border and
northwest Kansas. South of this surface boundary a dryline will
extend of this boundary and these two features will be the focus
for precipitation. Given the uncertainty of the exact location of
each of these surface features along with timing issue between the
models of any disturbance crossing the Central High Plains will
stay close to the latest CRExtendFcst_Init for precipitation
chances from Thursday through Sunday. The better opportunity for
widespread precipitation each day late week and over the weekend
period will be north of this surface boundary where upslope flow
and 950mb to 850mb moisture axis will be located. At this time
based on the latest 12z model runs this area is currently forecast
to be located in/near southwest Kansas late Thursday through
Friday.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF PD. Strongest winds will be east
of the terminals. Still, SW winds of 15-25 kt can be expected for KGCK/KDDC/KHYS.
S/SE 10-15 kt winds expected tonight as dryline retreats. Weak fropa in
the morning with winds veering WNW-NNW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 94 60 90 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 56 91 58 88 / 0 10 10 20
EHA 56 94 57 89 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 54 96 58 90 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 59 88 61 88 / 0 10 10 20
P28 66 99 66 96 / 0 10 10 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ066-081-089-090.

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1200 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

The 19.12Z 250-hPa map showed a 100 kt westerly jet streak located near
KREV. Downstream, 50 kt of flow prevailed across Kansas. At 500-hPa,
a trough was located across the Pacific Northwest/far NE Pacific. Downstream,
ridging prevailed across the Great Plains and into the Midwest. At the
lower levels (H7/H85), warm air advection continued across KDDC with
the EML fully sampled. Ideal downslope southwesterly winds and a temp
at 18C give the clue of a hot day potential across SW Kansas. At the
surface, a low pressure perturbation was located across SE Colorado
with an associated dryline across western Kansas. Another frontal boundary
was located across western Nebraska.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

During the extended period, an upper level low is progged to spin
around the desert southwest Tuesday through Thursday then slowly
shift eastward across the Four Corners Region Friday into Saturday.
This low then moves into the Central High Plains Sunday into Monday.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will be positioned across the Plains
Tuesday through Friday shifting eastward into the Mississippi Valley
this weekend. Mid levels of the atmosphere increase in moisture
Tuesday afternoon through Friday becoming nearly saturated by this
weekend as the aforementioned upper level low approaches.

Towards the surface, a weak a stationary boundary will bisect the
CWA Tuesday with a dryline positioned south of this feature across
far western Kansas. Southerly winds will be felt ahead of the
dryline and continue to draw more humid air north in the lower
levels. Westerly winds will be observed across far southwestern
Kansas behind the dryline with northerly winds observed north of the
stationary boundary. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely
west of dryline with mostly clear skies anticipated throughout the
day. A slight increase in clouds will be possible across northern
Kansas Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as a weak disturbance
moves through that area. However, no precipitation is expected at
this time. Partly cloudy skies will be observed elsewhere Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday are forecasted to range from the upper 80s
north of the stationary boundary to upper 90s across the KS/OK
border. Lows Tuesday night are expected to range from the mid 50s
across west central Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas.

The dryline retreats west into eastern Colorado Wednesday with a
surface boundary sliding slightly farther south. A slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible across far western Kansas and north
of this boundary Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise
expected partly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be from an
easterly direction through the day shifting to the southeast
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday are expected to range from the mid
to upper 80s north of the boundary to mid 90s across south central
Kansas.

The better opportunity for widespread thunderstorms will be from
Thursday through Sunday, especially along and north of a surface
boundary that is suggested to extend from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas. Confidence of where exactly this boundary will
be found is not high and tweaks to the forecast will be needed over
the next couple of days. Nevertheless, moist upslope flow will be
present north of this boundary with an 850mb theta-e ridge axis.
Highs Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s with highs in the low
to mid 80s Friday through Sunday. Lows Thursday night through Sunday
night will generally be around 60 degrees.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Critical fire weather conditions will be widespread across west
central and southwest Kansas as a dryline mixes east. West of the
dryline, dewpoints will fall into upper single digits to mid teens,
and with temperatures rising through the mid to upper 90s, this will
lead to extremely low relative humidity down to as low as 4 to 6
percent for a few hours late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind
speeds will average around 20 knots during the afternoon hours as
well from the west-southwest.

Another critical fire weather day is expected Tuesday, but farther
south most likely into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. For now we
will keep far southwest Kansas out of a Fire Weather Watch as it
appears the frontal boundary will stay far enough south for a long
enough portion of the day Tuesday before it lifts back as a warm
front.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 58 94 60 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 98 56 91 58 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 97 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 100 54 96 58 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 98 59 88 61 / 0 0 10 10
P28 99 66 99 66 / 0 0 10 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ066-081-089-090.

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1145 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Update for winds...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites with only a few
high clouds this morning. Southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots this
morning will shift to the southwest by late morning with gusts
around 30 knots.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ066-081-089-090.

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1017 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Update to synopsis...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

659 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON...AS A LEE SURFACE LOW TRYS TO
DEVELOP OVER SW KS...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. LOOKS LIKE
A BORDER LINE SHOT WHEN IT COMES TO WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY. SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE WARMUP CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL KS AND THE 80S ELSEWHERE AS 850H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS.

TUE-WED: WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ON TUE INTO WED AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SW FLOW PATTERN WITH A VERY WARM AIRMASS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SW KS. AS THIS WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO NRN KS AND BECOME STATIONARY. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND A WELL MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ON TUE. THE
NAM/WRF EVEN SUGGESTS TEMPS POSSIBLY NEAR 100...BUT CONSENSUS
MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST MIDDLE 90S. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
NORTHERN KS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING...BUT CONVERGENCE DOESNT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES CAPPED FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG INTERSTATE
70...ON WED WITH A WARM AIRMASS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SRN KS. THINK
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED...IN THE LOW 90S...AS A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON TUE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER CEN KS. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THINK THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KS FOR WED EVENING AS THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ERODES. SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE GIVEN BULK SHEAR
OF 40-50 KTS AND THE GFS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE CONVECTION INCREASE OVER CENTRAL KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...ALONG THE
ELEVATED 850-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE. POSSIBLY FORMING AN EASTWARD
MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION GET IS THE BIG QUESTION...AS PREVAILING
MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SOME ON THU INTO
FRI...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. THIS WILL PUSH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE KS/NE BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES
NORTH...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH THU AND FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE PLAINS...WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
NORTH INTO PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE THU-SUN CONVECTION
CHANCES...AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK FOR LATE
SPRING...BUT THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO STRONG STORMS AND A
FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX AFTERNOON HEATING.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A MORE PROMISING SHOWER/STORM CHANCE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THAN HAS BEEN WITNESSED THUS FAR THIS SPRING.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING
THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS ALREADY SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS WITH
SPORADIC GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS. NARRE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUST
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 20KTS BUT LESS THAN 40KTS...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE. AXIS OF STRONGER
LOOKS TO BE ALONG RIDGE OF FLINT HILLS...THUS KICT AND KCNU LIKELY
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS. GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AFTER 00 UTC/20...SO TONED WIND AND GUSTS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING.

LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT OF STRATUS THAT IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE
THIS MORNING...ALONG AN AXIS FROM KFSM THROUGH KTUL AND KBVO TO
KEMP. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ORIENTATION OF NARROW
BAND OF MVFR CIGS...WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT KCNU MAY EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 AGL THIS MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 90 65 96 66 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 92 63 95 63 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 89 63 94 65 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 87 64 92 66 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 65 94 68 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 95 58 89 62 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 96 59 90 62 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 91 62 92 65 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 91 61 93 62 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 83 65 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 82 65 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 82 65 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 83 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

617 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

409 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Updated short term and fire weather sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Flight category of VFR is forecast through tonight amidst a hot
and dry airmass. Winds will remain out of the south and fairly
strong through mid-morning...then shifting to the southwest or
even west-southwest 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. After
sunset, winds will decrease quite a bit but remain out of the south.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

346 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Water vapor imagery early this morning showed the broad mid-level
ridge centered over the central U.S. with several embedded
shortwaves along the northern edge of the ridge axis. One of the
stronger shortwaves was noted across northern Nebraska in which
thunderstorms developed through the overnight hours. Another shortwave
was seen moving across western Kansas, which contributed to a stream
of mid-level clouds spreading eastward into central Kansas. The
low-level jet was ramping up overnight across western and central
Kansas with 850mb winds upwards of 65kts. However, this 850mb jet
was advecting drier air into the region as an elevated mixed layer
was still noted in model soundings. With this EML in place, it will
make it difficult to develop any elevated thunderstorms, despite the
presence of some increasing isentropic lift. Model soundings
continue to show the potential for a stratus deck to develop for a
few hours this morning as a shallow saturation layer develops up to
about 900mb-850mb. Could possibly get a few light showers or
sprinkles to develop from this shallow saturation layer, however the
lift in this layer looks to be pretty weak. As more dry air gets
advected into the region through the morning hours, that will
continue to limit the potential for scattered precipitation
development. A few short-range models show the potential for some
isolated precipitation to develop across far northeast Kansas, so
have kept the mention of just slight chance PoPs in through 14z with
dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day through
tonight. Temperatures this morning were much warmer than the last
few nights as the combination of increasing mid-level cloud cover
and increasing southeasterly surface winds gusting upwards of
20-30mph helped keep temperatures in the 60s.

Model soundings show the cloud cover clearing out late this morning
into this afternoon with breezy southerly winds from the tight
pressure gradient in place over the region. Expect gusts upwards of
25-35mph this afternoon, which will result in decent warm air
advection into the region. Models show a nose of warmer air
stretching from southwest Kansas into north central Kansas this
afternoon, with high temperatures today likely ranging from the
low/mid 80s over eastern Kansas to the upper 80s/low 90s across
north central Kansas. While surface winds should diminish some this
evening, still expect gusts upwards of 15-25mph overnight. With the
continuation of this warm air advection into the evening hours,
expect mild conditions tonight with lows once again in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Tuesday through Wednesday, a short wave trough will move east
along the US/Canada border. A cold front associated with this
trough will stall out across Kansas by Tuesday and appears likely
to remain in the region for several days through the coming
weekend. While there will be a front in the region, and warm temps
along with increasing low level moisture will lend plenty of
instability, it appears that the atmosphere will remain capped to
any convective development through Tuesday and much of Wednesday.
Expect some 90s on Tuesday near and immediately south of the front
with upper 80s elsewhere. Wed morning lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s with upper 80s to around 90 expected again on Wednesday.

By late Wednesday afternoon, we get the first indications that the
cap will weaken with the continued influx of low level moisture
and approach of a weak short wave disturbance. Forecast soundings
suggest moderate to strong instability and 40+ kts of 0-6 km
shear across the forecast area with the surface frontal boundary
located somewhere across the forecast area. Expect isolated to
scattered storms to develop near the front by late afternoon/early
evening. While widespread severe weather does not seem likely, this
setup seems to lend a fair chance for storms to become severe
should they develop, and will need to monitor closely as it`s
plausible that a few well organized supercells could develop.

On Wednesday night, there seems to be a favorable setup for an
organized MCS to develop out of afternoon High Plains convection.
Any MCS would likely track near and just north of the surface
front, likely taking it across some part of the local forecast
area. With instability seemingly still in place and potentially
favorable wind fields aloft, could see an organized damaging wind
threat materialize. Will have to see how the details sort out, but
the potential seems to be there.

Thursday will be another day of thunderstorm chances, with
moderate instability forecast, the surface front remaining
somewhere in Kansas, and deep layer shear slightly weaker but
still possibly supporting storm organization. Wed night storms
will likely play a large role in Thursday`s weather, and thus
confidence in any specific convective outcome is fairly low.

Thursday night through Sunday will remain unsettled with with
gradually increasing deep moisture and continued thunderstorm
chances. Expect instability, as a whole, to decrease slightly into
the weekend while deep layer shear decreases dramatically. So,
while thunderstorms remain in the forecast, the severe weather
potential seems to decrease quite a bit. Should also note that
while there are precip chances every day, do not believe that
every location will see precip every day. The potential is there
at any given time but do not expect long term rain outs.
Temperatures through this period should generally have highs
around 80 with lows in the 60s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next few hours. Low level
moisture return overnight still appears to try and advance
northward therefore have kept the mention of MVFR cigs. With a
strong low level jet the boundary layer should remain mixed enough
to prevent IFR conditions, but it can not be ruled out. There is
still a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm around
sunrise as the high res models continue to advertised this
possibility. Latest RAP soundings do show an area of saturation
and uncapped lift above the EML.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1148 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough from the Hudson bay
down along the mid Atlantic seaboard with a shortwave over the mid MS
river valley. A closed low was spinning off the Pacific northwest
coast causing a low amplitude ridge to propagate east across the
Rockies and into the plains. Surface obs show a trough of low
pressure in the lee of the Rockies deepening with higher dewpoints
across the southern plains poised to move north.

For tonight and Monday, models continue to show a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up as the low level jet increases. While
low level moisture is likely to increase with the southerly winds,
models continue to show a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) advecting
in from the southwest. This dry and warm air (700MB temps around
+12C) is expected to form a capping inversion by Monday and the
latest RAP and NAM solutions have this warm air moving in as soon as
this evening. So am still not that optimistic on precip chances
overnight as the low level jet advects dryer air northeast. The RAP
and HRRR have started to show convection coming off the higher
terrain out west, but it falls apart as it runs into the EML. The
GFS is the only solution with any meaningful QPF and the forecast
soundings do not really support elevated convection as it too
advects in the EML and no real instability above the inversion.
There may be an isolated shower along the leading edge of the EML as
decent isentropic upglide provides some lift, so have continued with
some slight chance POPs for the early morning hours. By late in the
morning, the EML should be over much of the area with no real large
scale forcing to break the cap. Therefore expect Monday to remain
dry for the most part. Think the main sensible weather overnight
will be some low stratus advecting north with the moisture return.
The increasing pressure gradient should keep the boundary layer
mixed overnight so fog development appears to have a low probability
of occurring. The breezy winds and increasing low level moisture
should keep lows in the upper 50s to around 60 tonight. Good warm air
advection and afternoon sunshine should help push highs into the mid
80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

Medium and longer range periods looking similar to other recent
model runs. Elevated mixed layer should remain in control and keep
convection in check into the mid week periods despite a modest cold
front sinking south. Location of the low level thermal axis is
somewhat in question, but will likely poke most strongly northeast
into southwestern portions of the area Tuesday and back off the to
the southwest Wednesday with low level flow more backed, with highs
into the 90s along it. As the surface high works its way east toward
the Great Lakes, low level moisture will pool along the boundary and
low level jet pick up in intensity Wednesday night. This presents
the first notable chance for precipitation mainly in northern
Kansas. Northwest flow over the eastern CONUS brings the surface
high southeast and with help of convection, helps bring the old
front farther south into Kansas. The EML should weaken and moisten
as models are fairly consistent with precipitation becoming more
widespread in the southern High Plains and local mid level parcels
being sourced from this area. The boundary`s presence and much more
limited convective inhibition will keep precipitation chances
through much of the late week and into the weekend with temperatures
modifying back toward normal. Boundary could be rather weak to
non-existent by the weekend but models are fairly consistent with
the southwest cut-off low topping the Rockies by this time. The
Wednesday night storms could present the highest severe weather
potential when shear profiles are at least moderate, but weakening
flow should keep anything more than pulse severe storms in check for
the bulk the forecast with areas of heavier rains possible from
slow-moving convection in an atmosphere with above normal
precipitable water.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1248 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS, WINDS, AND TEMPS
ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE BOUNDARY THAT IS GENERALLY QUASI
STATIONARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING
TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE BLOCKING HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. THE WSR-88D
INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS FROM PORTIONS OF NE AROOSTOOK TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PENOBSCOT TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TODAY AND THIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED INTO MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START THIS PERIOD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. FOR TUESDAY...THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE GONE AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO N DURING THE DAY. THIS MEANS COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TRANSITORY SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO END THE LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVELS PERSIST. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SPUR ANOTHER ROUND OF A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROCEED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THURSDAY ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF
HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR NORTH OF KHUL WILL DETERIORATE
TO SOLID MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOWER STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR MON PM.

SHORT TERM: MOIST LOW LEVELS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONDITIONS VARYING FROM PREVAILING IFR OR MVFR AT NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOONS IN
LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 4 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF AS OF 9 PM...AND IS MOSTLY
THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE VSBY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1/2 NM OR LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN FOG.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CLIMATE...
FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS
BROKEN AT CARIBOU. THE LOW YESTERDAY OF 55 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST
LOW TEMP EVER OBSERVED ON MAY 17TH. THE OLD RECORD OF 54F WAS SET
IN 1989.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/JORDAN/MCW
MARINE...HASTINGS/JORDAN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

915 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...

COMPOSITE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TORONTO THROUGH CHICAGO
INTO IOWA HAS IGNITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCRETE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. THE ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO A
SINGLE CELL RESPONSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OAKLAND AND MACOMB
COUNTIES. THE RESPONSE HAS BEEN FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MUCH GREATER QUALITY INSTABILITY
/COMPARE KDVN AND KDTX RAOB/. AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SETTLE
SOUTH SLOWLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...UPSTREAM CONVECTION
WILL ADVANCE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS HAVE YET TO GEL INTO AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX
AND WILL REQUIRE A LITTLE MORE SIMMER TIME TO FORM A COMMON COLD
POOL. MOREOVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PREFERENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZATION
TO FAVOR A MOTION THAT KEEPS THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REGARDLESS...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME SEMBLANCE OF
ELEVATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS METRO DETROIT SOUTH TO THE
BORDER. HOWEVER...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE BORDER /SEE LATEST SPC SWOMCD/.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 729 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT IN
THE VICINITY OF FLINT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND WILL ONLY AFFECT FLINT AND PONTIAC DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EASTERN IOWA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING
HOURS - ARRIVING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FELT
PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE DETROIT REGIONAL
TERMINALS VIA A TEMPO GROUP. ORGANIZATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WILL NOT OFFER TOO
MUCH DETAIL WITH THIS OFFERING. BEHIND TONIGHTS ACTIVITY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MODESTLY LOW CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY IF ENOUGH ISOLATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 04-07Z TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

SHORT TERM CONCERNS STILL REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FIRST...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FAST ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A WARM FRONT ARCING SE INTO MICHIGAN FROM ROUGHLY NORTH OF
MUSKEGEON TO LAPEER AND THEN SOUTH TO AROUND MONROE. THE
NORTH/EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS BEING HINDERED BY FLOW OFF
THE COOLER LAKES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WITH DESPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME CUMULUS
IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOWER IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SO FAR IT IS SHALLOW. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
MEAGER BUT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. SOME MODEST SURFACE
BASED INSTABLITY MAY DEVELOP AS WE GET LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KT IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP...BUT THE LACK OF CLEAR FORCING
MECHANISMS AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 00Z.

ANOTHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 04Z...BUT IT
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. DISCRETE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING QUICK-MOVING MCS...WHICH COULD BE
LONG-LIVED DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 16Z HRRR AND THE 12Z
NMM. THESE COMPLEXES WOULD PREFERENTIALLY MOVE TOWARD THE RESERVOIR
OF GREATER INSTABILITY...WHICH IS BETTER TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE
GREATER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. STILL...THE THREAT IS GOOD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM M-59 SOUTH
/WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER/ FROM AROUND 04-10Z.
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO SECONDARY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.3-1.5 INCHES.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO
TOMORROW...DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL DELIVER A RESPECTABLE SHOT OF COOL AIR TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...LIKELY LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES (80+
DEGREES) EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TOMORROW GOES...THE FORECAST WILL BE IMPACTED WITH WHAT
OCCURS OVERNIGHT...AS POTENTIAL DEPARTING MCV MAY CAST
SHADOW/SUBSIDENCE WAKE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...DO HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PREVIOUS MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO...WHICH WILL CAUSE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE.
STRONG WESTERLY JET (65 KNOTS AT 500 MB) CORE WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PROBLEM IS WE CAN NOT FULLY
COUNT ON A MORNING CAP/LULL...AND STORMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE INCREASING
MIXING DEPTHS WE ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY DRYING OUT
PROCESS...LEADING TO QUESTIONS WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
POTENTIAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS MAX
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE 12 HOUR
WINDOW...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...AND
UNFORTUNATELY WILL CARRY GENERIC HIGH SCATTERED/LOW LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE DAY...AS TONIGHT`S EVOLUTION WILL BE A ONE OF THE KEYS
FOR TOMORROWS WEATHER.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS. THE CYCLONIC/COLD
ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
THURSDAY...LIKELY CAPPING MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND EVEN SUFFICIENT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/CAPES/CLOUD DEPTHS (4-12 KFT) TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

12Z EURO IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS IN BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN EXCESS OF 80 DEGREE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS INTO
TUESDAY.

MARINE...

INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE ADJACENT
NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH AS WARM FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO WARMUP TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

UPDATE.......MANN
AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

729 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 04-07Z TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

112 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS SUPPORTED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL INTO
ERN ND. SRLY WINDS AND MID CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN AND WRN
WI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

TODAY...EXPECT SLOWLY INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS BUT WITH
STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW AND WAA...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S. HOWEVER...LOWER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PCPN. SO RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MAINLY AFTER 21Z OVER THE WEST THIRD.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED TO MQT-ESC BY 23Z.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN MN INTO NRN
ONTARIO WILL BRING AN 850 MB WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW (PWAT TO 1.25 INCH) ON 40-50 KNOT 850-750 MB WINDS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE. THE PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD FROM THE WEST
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVER THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ONLY SHOW MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG INTO SW UPPER MI...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...TSRA MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR MOST OF
THE CWA EXCEPT THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD..

QPF/TS...PW VALUES AROUND 1.2IN OR AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL
SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI W TO E THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING CWA AVG RAINFALL AROUND OR OVER 0.75IN...WITH MOST OF THAT
FALLING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY. OF COURSE HIGHER AND LOWER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN A TS ENVIRONMENT WHICH WE
WILL BE IN TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER ALL OF UPPER MI BEFORE ENDING W TO E
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY MOISTURE
LEFT TO ALLOW FOR TS DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PUSHING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA MID DAY TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE S
40-50KTS 850MB LLJ 12Z-18Z OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.

TEMPS...AT 00Z WEDNESDAY /JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/ FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 10-13C. OF COURSE WITH
SATURATED SOIL SFC TEMPS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. 50S AND
60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 70F
NEAR OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

THE SFC RIDGE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE LOW
MOVES JUST E OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AND
ALONG THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING-AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PESKY 500MB LOW
FINALLY EXITS TO E ONTARIO.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE GFS HAS SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR
THIS PERIOD OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT
OF NORMAL OR 0.35IN. ON THE FIRE FRONT...THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH
NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE PRECIP THAT
SHOULD FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN MOVES
IN AND BRINGS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE SITES. THE
STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TONIGHT THE
ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN RAIN
OVERSPREADING UPPER MI W-E THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS THE RAIN CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING IN...WILL LIMIT WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE SFC.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

737 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INITIALLY DRY
S WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN THE
PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.
THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TONIGHT
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN RAIN
OVERSPREADING UPPER MI W-E LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

507 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TODAY WITH AN INITIALLY DRY S
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN THIS DEPARTING HI
AND A LO PRES MOVING E OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN THE PRESENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...THE WINDS WL TURN GUSTY. THE STRENGTHENING
SSW FLOW WL TAP MORE MSTR TNGT...AND THE ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS
DYNAMIC FORCING WL RESULT IN RA OVERSPREADING UPR MI W-E LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAP PERIOD AT IWD...WHERE THE PCPN WL ARRIVE
EARLIEST. MORE TENACIOUS DRY LLVL AIR WL DELAY THE DETERIORATION AT
CMX/SAW...BUT EVEN THERE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

116 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY FILL WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY CO-LOCATED
WITH THE 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE...WHICH REACHES THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. WE THINK THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL COME ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. OUR QPF IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
BUY INTO SOME OF THE NEW 09Z MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF /HOPWRF.INFO/. THEY HAVE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. EVENTUALLY THE THICKNESS RIDGE SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO...AFTER THIS
FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THERE SHOULD BE A LAG IN THE
PRECIP OVER MUCH OF MN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS SECOND ROUND IS MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL AND WE`RE NOT TOTALLY SURE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SET UP. IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED HINGES HEAVILY ON A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL EJECT OUT FROM THAT
LOW...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THINGS
PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE UPCOMING PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE RAIN REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MIXING SHOULD BRING TEMPS NEAR 80F ON
TUESDAY. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THOUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL SPIN OFF OF THIS VORTICITY
MAX...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS VERY LOW...BUT
EVENTUALLY THIS WAVE WILL KICK OUT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE 20POPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL...AND UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA SLOWLY WORKING EAST WITH LLJ THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR HAS NOT BEEN BAD WITH TIMING THIS PRECIP...THOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY STILL BUILDING BACK SW INTO THE LLJ...MAY NEED TO DELAY
END OF PRECIP A BIT MORE FOR MSP/RNH/EAU. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
CIG FORECAST AWAY FROM THE GFSLAMP AND MORE TOWARD THE
RAP/HRRR...THOUGH THIS MAY HAVE RESULTED IN TAFS THAT WERE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. BASED ON THE HRRR
AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS..ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK UNLIKELY...SO STARTED TO DOWNPLAY THAT
IN TAFS. FOR WINDS...PRES GRADIENT OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN IS QUITE
TIGHT...SO DO EXPECT GUSTS UP NEAR 35 KTS AT AXN THROUGH 21Z
BEFORE SFC LOW NEAR ABR STARTS TO FILL IN.

KMSP...BASED ON BACK BUILDING OF RETURNS TO THE SW...WE MAY HAVE
TO PUSH ENDING OF PRECIP BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LLJ
CLEARS US OFF TO THE EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH CIG FORECAST.
GFSLAMP CONTINUES TO BE WAY TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS...SO
IT/S SO CONTINUED TO SHY AWAY FROM GOING THAT ROUTE. FOLLOWED
MORE THE TREND OF THE HRRR...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICK IN GOING
BACK TO VFR. HEIGHTS TO THE SW OF THE PRECIP HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 015
AND 025...SO EXPECT CIGS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN ABOVE 015. LOOKS
UNLIKELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH FEW
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

654 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO MN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH TIME. OUTSIDE OF KAXN...WHICH WILL
HAVE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR AN ARRIVAL TIME FOR
THUNDER LATE THIS MORNING OR NEAR THE NOON HOUR FOR MOST OTHER
TAF SITES. WE THINK THE STORMS WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE AS THEY
HEAD EAST. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING...MVFR/IFR...BEHIND THE RAIN TODAY.

KMSP...

THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR THUNDER TODAY WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN WESTERN MN...HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AIRPORT. THEY ARE PRODUCING
0.50"-1.5" HAIL THIS MORNING. WE HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A COUPLE PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN NEAR THE
EVENING RUSH. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS. A LOT
OF THE MODELS WE USE ARE SHOWING CEILINGS BELOW 1500FT BY THE
EVENING...BUT THESE CAN OFTEN BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING IN POOR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR. WINDS W 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

517 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS LATE THIS EVENING ARE NOT AS UNIFIED ON
PROGRESSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS EARLIER RUNS INDICATED. HENCE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH AS BEFORE. TRIED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY IN THE
TAFS WITH SHRA/TSRA INTO WESTERN MN IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND
ACROSS EASTERN MN FROM 14Z-18Z. STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS
SOME WHILE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE SLIPPAGE OF CEILINGS BELOW
010. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC NAM IS NOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER IN THE
DAY BEFORE BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CEILINGS TRENDS AS WELL. BREEZY SE WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR
KAXN AND KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

KMSP...A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS INDICATED FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. SE WINDS 16G24KTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...MVFR CIGS SHRA/TSRA ENDING IN THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR.
WINDS W 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

808 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO ADD AREAS OF FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF. /27/

.AVIATION...THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...AND A
REPEAT OF LIFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS/FOG IS LIKELY IN THE 08-14Z TIME
FRAME EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING HBG/PIB UP TO JAN/HKS/MEI/NMM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED AS
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES GULF REGION...KEEPING GULF MOISTURE
AT BAY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOB 1 INCH. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT FOG CAN BE EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPS. MODELS ARE OVERALL IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE FROM
GUIDANCE. /AEG/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND STOUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD
RESULTING IN HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 90.
MEANWHILE...LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS THEY ONLY FALL INTO
THE 60S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER SCARCE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO AT LEAST BRUSH THE REGION...BRINGING SMALL RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 2
GREENWOOD 61 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 2

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1118 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

No forecast update needed as going trends still looking quite good,
with latest RUC and HRRR data still hinting at a slight chance of elevated
convection late tonight and early Monday morning over northwest
sections of the CWA. Believe current activity along I-35 N of Des
Moines will try to develop SE and may clip our extreme northern
counties, but think the "main" threat for our area will be
developing late tonight near the IA-MO border.

Truett

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

1025mb high pressure off to our east continues to dominate our
region with light E-SE winds and a dry atmospheric column.

It is expected to be clear for most areas thru much of tonight, and
with light SE winds, will allow for another night of below average
temps, but warmer than previous nights, with mins from the mid 40s
in IL to the low 50s in MO. Clouds will move in from central MO
just after midnight towards the MS river by sunrise, and with a
substantial increase in moisture and aided by the eastern extremity
of a low level jet, there remains a window of opportunity for SHRA
or TSRA development in parts of northeast MO for late tonight.
Extended the slight chance PoP into late tonight from where it
previously was for just Monday morning.

TES/Carney

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

(Monday - Wednesday)

Warm temperatures make a return with passage of a warm front on
Monday and peaking by Wednesday, just before a cold front drops into
the area.

Models build an upper level ridge into the lower-mid MS valley
during this period. The brief window of opportunity for SHRA and
TSRA development from late tonight will carryover until late Monday
morning over the northeast quarter of MO and west-central IL until a
strong capping inversion moves in and effectively shuts off any pcpn
potential. This capping inversion is then expected to be
sufficiently strong enough, in what is also a warm sector setup,
largely absent of any boundaries or triggers, until a cold front can
begin to make an approach to northern MO and central IL later on
Tuesday night, or more likely, Wednesday. Just have sub-climo
slight chances going for the northern CWA Tuesday night, and then up
them to chance category for roughly the same area on Wednesday.

Temps are still expected to surge to well above average values by
mid-week for most areas, with maxes of 75 to 80 on Monday and
mid-upper 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The better rain chances will be associated with the slowly dropping
cold front beginning late Tuesday night over northern MO/central IL
and continuing thru Friday as this front eventually makes it to
southern MO/IL by Thursday night-Friday.

(Wednesday Night - Next Sunday)

Plenty of rain chances this period with temps moderating closer back
to normal for late May.

The cold front will slowly make its way south thru our region, not
expected to fully exit southeast MO and southern IL until early
Friday. A greatly weakened capping inversion, upper-level
disturbances rolling on by, and the presence of the surface front
will enable a persistent chance for SHRA/TSRA at least thru Friday
for most areas. Into next weekend, it looks more hazy, but it
appears the front is still going to try to buckle northward and/or
dissipate, and may prolong the rain chances, especially for
central-southeast MO. Nevertheless, the PoPs forecast are at or
below climatology, which is 30% for this time of year.

Max temps expected to slip back into the 70s for late week and into
next weekend, depending on how long it takes for the front to either
move back north or dissipate. The powerful storm system still looks
trapped in the southwestern USA thru next weekend.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

E-sely surface wind will continue late tonight with surface ridge
centered over the Ohio Valley region. The surface wind will become
relatively strong and gusty late Monday morning and afternoon due
to a tightening surface pressure gradient as low pressure develops
over the central Plains. Mid-high level cloudiness will spread
eastward into the area late tonight as low-mid level warm air
advection increases over the region. It appears that any isolated,
elevated convection will remain north or west of the taf sites
late tonight and Monday morning. Patchy MVFR clouds were
already spreading northward into southwest MO, and cannot rule
out that some of this cloudiness could advect into COU and the
St Louis metro area early Monday morning. Scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds will likely develop late Monday morning and
afternoon as low level moisture increases over the area with a
subtle warm front lifting north-northeastward through our region.
Most of the low-mid level cloudiness should shift northeast of COU
and the St Louis metro area by late Monday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: E-sely surface wind will continue late tonight,
then increase to around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts late Monday
morning and afternoon. Mid-high level clouds will spread eastward
into STL towards morning. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds is
expected for late Monday morning and afternoon. Much of the low-
mid level clouds will dissipate or advect northeast of STL by late
Monday evening with only some high level clouds remaining. The
surface wind should weaken some Monday night and lose much of the
gustiness.

GKS

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

856 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NW CONUS TODAY...WITH INITIAL TROF NOW
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH AND SECONDARY LOW DROPPING ALONG THE OR/CA
COAST. WE ARE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TODAY BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS. TFX RAOB SHOWS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS IN OUR AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
GET GOING FAIRLY EARLY TODAY AND PROBABLY NO LATER THAN NOON. IN
FACT...THERE ARE ALREADY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN NE MUSSELSHELL
COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK JET FORCING. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 5.5KFT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS...BUT
OTHERWISE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO REMOVE MORNING FOG AND LOWER 15-18Z POPS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE GUSTY TODAY WITH
MIXING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...WE
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR FOG TO BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND JET MAXES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WORK
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND...OF COURSE...TERRAIN. SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH CAPE VALUES
PROGGED TO BE UPWARDS OF 400 OR 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND LI VALUES OF -1C ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...CERTAINLY WE
COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME WEAK...SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER ACROSS THE
EAST DUE TO SOME CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MIXING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 40S ACROSS THE EAST
TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN...AND FLOW OVER THE BILLINGS
CWA REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONVECTION AS 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7C AND 8C PER KM.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. STC

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED RANGE PROGGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PATTERN. CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LAY UNDER BROAD ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST WE WILL
SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG SE SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTY
ZONES FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS AND EASTWARD. THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AROUND SATURDAY EVENING AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDWEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT...SO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
LIKELY SEE STEADY RISES LATE THIS WEEK. BT

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGER CELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT. JKL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 044/067 046/071 048/080 051/083 052/076 050/073
4/T 23/T 22/T 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T
LVM 062 037/065 039/070 043/081 046/080 045/073 043/073
5/T 35/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 24/T 43/T
HDN 069 042/069 046/074 046/081 050/084 052/079 050/075
4/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
MLS 069 044/069 047/074 049/080 051/085 055/079 052/075
2/T 22/W 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
4BQ 069 042/069 046/073 047/081 049/083 052/079 049/073
2/T 22/T 42/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
BHK 068 043/066 045/071 047/077 050/081 053/078 053/074
2/T 12/W 12/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
SHR 065 039/065 044/070 043/078 044/079 049/075 047/071
4/T 33/T 43/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

1016 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING...THUS
ONE LAST UPDATE TO KILL THE REMAINING WATCHES. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS WORKING OUT AS PLANNED. HRRR MODEL
SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN A QUASI-LINEAR FASHION AND TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
IS FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT YESTERDAY/S MODELS DEPICTED. OUTFLOW
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL SEEM TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 6 HOUR QPF BULLS EYES NEAR AN
INCH FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN GOING. DO NOT
EXPECT FLASH FLOODING BUT IT WILL BE A SLOPPY MESS IN MOST AREAS
COME MONDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH ALL BUT THE NE ZONES DRY MONDAY
MORNING.

ON MONDAY...NAM/GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM BECOMING STACKED OVER S
SASK. CLEARING MAY MAKE IT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT
PROXIMITY TO STORM WILL KEEP NORTHERN ZONES CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE WINDY TOO...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOSED SYSTEM GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TFJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US
MOST OF THE WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE
ZONAL THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. FORRESTER

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE KSDY
AND KGDV TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. STORMS MAY BRING TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY AND VARIABLE
WINDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS
AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING AND A PASSING
SHOWER STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
WEST WINDS ON MONDAY MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MALIAWCO

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

807 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE H5 PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CONUS OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OFF THE
COAST OF MAINE...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER LOW WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL CONUS...A
NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN MANITOBA. A 50+KT JET
STREAK EXTENDED ACROSS NRN WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SRN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED VERY LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SERN MONTANA INTO
NERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE WERE IN THE MID 80S TO 90S. WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...RANGED FROM 73 AT VALENTINE...TO 83 AT BROKEN BOW.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING. PLEASE REFER TO
WCN 162 FOR FURTHER DETAILS CONCERNING THE WATCH. CURRENTLY
WATCHING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE...AND THE SECOND IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

ALTOCUMULUS AND SPRINKLES BISECTING THE LBF CWA A RESULT OF REMNANTS
OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE RAP FURTHER SOUTHEAST IS GENERATING SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE IN WY
VERY SIMILAR TO THE WAY CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING WITH EACH RUN. THE HRRR HAS THIS HANDLED WELL AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE FORCING...THIS CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND DOES HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO RETAIN
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING...AGAIN ACCORDING TO THE HRRR AND ITS ENSEMBLE OF UPDRAFT
HELICITY. SHOULD THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HOLD TOGETHER TONIGHT THERE
IS SOME SUPPORT IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEB...SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE AND MODELS KEEP THIS PROGRESSING
EWD AS WELL SO PRECIP CHANCES ADDED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE TO MAINTAIN
ITS STRUCTURE INTO THE SW DUE TO A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET.
OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE BEING MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EWD. MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ONCE AGAIN WED MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NEB. IN ADDITION...NAM
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION IN FAVORED AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN UPPER PV ANOMALY TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MUCH
BROADER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE UPPER FORCING SERVES TO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM NW KS
IN TO SERN WY. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND MAY
BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THE WEST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WED THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO COOL
IN THE SOUTH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MID RANGE AND
EXTENDED FORECAST. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THANKS TO
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN COLORADO AND
NWRN KS INVOF OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH SSWRLY STEERING
WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NWD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HRS. THERE WILL REMAIN A
LARGE HAIL THREAT MAINLY ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA AND THE SERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FARTHER NORTH...HAIL SIZE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND I80 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN
A THREAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS THIS MORNING...ARE INDICATIVE
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WEDS EVENING...WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE 30 TO 40 KT H85 WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDS NIGHT WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK GIVEN THE LATEST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SETUP WILL COMMENCE FOR LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NWRN KS. WITH HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HRS INVOF THE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM
SOLN BEING THE FARTHEST SOUTH. WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE
TOMORROW NIGHT...JUST WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE DOWN THURSDAY
WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT...AS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA AND EASTERLY AND
SERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH ATTM IS EXPECTED TO LIE EITHER OVER SWRN NEBRASKA
OR OFF TO THE SW IN NERN COLORADO AND NWRN KS. LIKE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS WERE
CONTINUED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TRACKING INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRIER CONDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH 80S POSSIBLE NEXT
TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF 00Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WHETHER
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WYOMING/COLORADO WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES NOT WARRANT ANY TSRA MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL TAF FORECAST FOR EITHER KLBF OR KVTN. NOTE HOWEVER SEVERAL
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /SUCH AS THE HRRR/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR
DIA AND OVER FAR EASTERN WY BETWEEN KTOR/KBFF...WILL SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AND EACH PASS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH RESPECTIVELY OF KLBF
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE CONVECTION.
STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA /POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLBF/. BUT AS THE CASE WITH THE STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MVFR MENTION IN THE TAF AT LBF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EXPECTED STORMS THIS EVENING MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE SANDHILLS
THROUGH DAWN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

623 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

307 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING IS INDICATING A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING ON SHORE ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON
COASTS. HT FALLS WERE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER WYOMING AND EASTERN MT
WITH 40 TO 50 METER FALLS NOTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WEAK HT
FALLS OF 10 TO 30 METERS WERE NOTED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NRN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOTED WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF IMPERIAL...NNWD
INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...WHILE WEST OF THIS
FEATURE...DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 2 PM
CDT...SHOWS SOME NICE RETURNS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF THE I25
CORRIDOR IN EASTERN WYOMING...FROM NORTH OF CHEYENNE TO SOUTHEAST OF
DOUGLAS. OTHER ECHOES WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA. BASED ON SFC OBS...MUCH OF THIS
PCPN ISN/T REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. AS OF 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 73 AT VALENTINE...TO 85 AT
IMPERIAL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A TANDEM OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE FIRST WILL LIFT FROM EASTERN WYOMING
INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THEN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE
SECOND WILL LIFT INTO THE SANDHILLS FROM NERN COLORADO. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY LED TO SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT SHOULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING. CAP STRENGTH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z WHERE IT BEGINS TO ERODE FROM OGALLALA
TO THEDFORD. IN THESE AREAS...AM EXPECTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AROUND THE 6 TO 7 PM CDT TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS IN
THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE NEAR THE INITIATION POINT...HOWEVER...IT FALLS
OFF TO AROUND 30 KTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183...SO AM EXPECTING THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 4KM WRF AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH DEVELOP
STRONG...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING. AS
FOR SEVERE TYPES...CONTINUED THINKING IS LARGE HAIL FOR THE MAIN
SEVERE TYPE AS LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
EVENING. WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 8000 FT AGL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS INVOF ANY STORMS...HOWEVER...SINCE
LINEAR SEGMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
MID LEVEL PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORCED SOUTH INTO
KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR PCPN WILL FOLLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DRY CONDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST...TO NEAR
80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE 0-2KM THETA-E RIDGE ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA
BORDER. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LESS THAN 1000J/KG...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FINGER OF THE THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. WITH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY
(CAPE) OF 2000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-50KT...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...POSSIBLY COMING ACROSS INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE AFTER 06Z

A SIMILAR SITUATION EXISTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECAST LOCATIONS OF THE MAXIMUM CAPE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA-COLORADO BORDERS...THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
HIGHWAY 80.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FRONT STARTS WASHING OUT. STILL WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY WILL BRING CONTINUE TO BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CAPES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH...THOUGH THE HIGHER CAPES WILL COVER A
LARGER PART OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK...ONLY ABOUT 20KT OR LOWER...SO HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BY SUNDAY...THE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THESE STORMS
DEVELOP AND TRACK IS UP IN THE AIR SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME...BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS IS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS. AT THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS...COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS IS SUCH THAT
THEY WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1238 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

REMOVED POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO...AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
CLOSE TO NIL. I KEPT POPS THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT THESE
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED AS WELL. WATCH FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE AS MORE DATA COMES IN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR NORTH
THIS EVENING...APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING IN OUR SOUTH...AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT FOR HIGHS TODAY.

STRATUS IS DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AND COULD TEMPORARILY GIVE
US A CLOUDY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH NICE
SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN SOUNDINGS. WE COULD GET A ROGUE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE HELP
FROM A CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL JET. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED
UP IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA...HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THING TO WORRY ABOUT AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NOT
LAST LONG.

TODAY WE WILL LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. I WENT MUCH MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT
DOES BEST IN THESE SITUATIONS. WITH ANY SKY COVER EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING WELL INTO THE 80S
IF NOT 90S IN OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS AROUND...IT
LOOKS LIKE AN OVEN AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED MIXING...SOME OF OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES COULD GET CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD DROP OFF...SO THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MAKING 3 HOURS OF WIND AND HUMIDITY...SO I WILL
JUST MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

THIS EVENING COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING. WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A SUBTLE PERTURBATION COMING IN THIS EVENING. ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND BREAKING CAP...WE COULD BE IN FOR SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DISCRETE CELLS FORMING A
POTENTIAL MCS LATER ON IN THE EVENING. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS
WELL. IF WE GET THIS TO FIRE...THE SCALE WILL BE RELATIVELY
SMALL...SO I DID NOT GO CRAZY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
I ACTUALLY RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE FROM THE ALREADY MILD
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

ALOFT: THE FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFYING. A WRN USA TROF WILL
REFORM AS THE LOW /CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST/ DROPS SE AND CUTS
OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER CANADA. MEANWHILE...A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTENT
NW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

NO NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL BE MOVING THRU HERE THRU WED
NIGHT. SO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF CONVECTION.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TODAY WILL BE
LOCATED FROM SW-NE ACROSS KS TOMORROW /MCI-ICT-DDC/. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU WED. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL EXPAND S
INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE-WED.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE TSTM THREATS EXIST WED NIGHT-SUN. ITS IMPOSSIBLE
IN THIS PATTERN TO TELL WHICH TIME PERIODS HAVE A GREATER RISK AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE. IF THE CAP IS NOT OVERWHELMING...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE TSTM EPISODES THAT COULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: "SHOULD" BE A NICE DAY. A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL /10F/. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED WE MAY
BE TOO LOW ON WINDS. I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE AND GOTTEN BURNED IN NE
FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE NAM IS THE TIGHEST WITH THE PRES
GRADIENT. FOR NOW THE FCST HAS BEEN NUDGED CLOSER TO THE NAM...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NE 15-25G30 THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUE NIGHT: THE LLJ SHOULD BE NO FACTOR. IT WILL BE ORIENTED TOWARD
THE MID MS VALLEY.

WED: A TOUCH COOLER THAN TUE. STILL LOOKING DRY.

WED NIGHT: MULTIPLE MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON THIS TIME FRAME FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z NAM/EC ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AM NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHY. THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS FCST TO BE ALONG THE WRN
KS/OK BORDER.

THU: MORE MODELS CLIMB ABOARD WITH INCREASING QPF...PARTICULARLY THE
GFS.

THIS OVERALL UPTREND IN POTENTIAL TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TIED TO THE
MODELS WANTING TO TRY AND DEVELOP TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT
WHILE WASHING IT OUT WITH TSTM ACTIVITY. THIS COULD ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE VORT MAXIMA BEING EJECTED OUT FROM THE CUT-
OFF LOW AND ROUNDING THE RIDGE.

WHILE AM SKEPTICAL...TSTMS CANT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THERE WILL BE
AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF HIGH QUALITY MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 850 MB FRONTS AND THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS IS A PRIME LOCATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
SO POPS WERE MAINTAINED BUT TRIMMED TO NO MORE THAN 30% THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS THU.

FRI-SUN: MINIMAL TIME SPENT IN THESE PERIODS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FROM THE TUE-THU TIME FRAMES. MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
VERY GOOD ON BLOCKING HIGHS REMAINING OVER THE BERING SEA AND N
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES
FCST THE SW USA CUT-OFF TO ADVANCE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IS LOOKING DECIDELY MORE SUMMERY WITH A 582 RIDGE FCST
TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE HEAVILY MODULATED
BY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANGE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS SCENARIO TO BE PLACE INTO THE TAF. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES COME TO FRUITION...IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD START TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY STALL AROUND THE
AREA INTO TOMORROW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

924 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF N CNTRL ND DID NOT BREAK UP AS MUCH AS PREV
THOUGHT...AND WILL INCREASE SKY ACROSS AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. RUC 925-850 LYRD RH IDEA SEEMS MOST LIKELY...WITH OVC
SKIES SPREADING ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR AND NW NOT
CLEARING OUT UNTIL MID MORNING TOMORROW. WILL HOWEVER REMOVE POPS
FOR THE NIGHT AS RADAR UNIMPRESSIVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS.

CANADIAN RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINNING TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA. WILL REMOVE POPS THROUGH 06Z AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS AFT 06Z. MAY PULL PRIOR TO NEXT UPDATE IF
NOTHING BEGINS TO REDEVELOP...HOWEVER WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER. FOR SKY...MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA IS CLEAR OR
CLEARING IN THE CELLULAR CU OVER EASTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING THROUGH 06Z...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS CLOUDS
OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEGIN TO FILL IN CLEAR AREAS. LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW...WHICH WILL ALSO IMPACT
AVIATION (SEE DISCUSSION BELOW).

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE
BLEND.

SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. CU FIELD EXPANDING SOUTHWARD WITH
THICKEST CLOUD COVER ALONG A DVL-ROX LINE. AIRMASS NOT VERY
UNSTABLE UNDER MID LEVEL COOLER AIR WITH NIL CAPE. A FEW SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE N CENTRAL ND BORDER AREA OTHERWISE ANY RAIN STILL
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. FOR THIS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON SHRA POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART KEEPING ANY SHRA ACTIVITY
HUGGING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCES BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT SO EXPECT MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

LOW LEVEL COLD POOL OVER FA TOMORROW MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS MN DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION FROM THE VALLEY
WEST. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MIXING EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOW BUT RAISE DURING
THE DAY SO DO EXPECT SOLAR. FEEL OPERATIONAL MODELS OVERDONE ON
QPF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO KEPT FORECAST DRY. OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.

LIGHT WINDS AND SKC SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST THURSDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM.
MIXING WILL STILL REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER COLUMN IN PLACE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RELATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EASTWARD EXTENT OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
RESIDUAL PCPN SO LIMITED POPS TO THE FAR WESTERN FA.

MIXING AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES FRIDAY. HOW WARM WE GET
WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS
INTO THE WESTERN FA HOWEVER WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING FEEL FA
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE DRY.

THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD FINALLY HAS A STRING OF DAYS
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALONG WITH THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FEATURE A RETURN TO SOME HUMIDITY. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
CUTOFF LOW KICKING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. UNFORTUNATELY THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MEANS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ESSENTIALLY EACH DAY CARRIES SOME
MENTION OF PCPN BUT REALISTICALLY THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS.
JUST HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FAR SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN ND MAY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND WILL KEEP VFR...HOWEVER THICKER CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WILL LIKELY ROTATE INTO TVF/BJI AREAS AFT MIDNIGHT AND
HAVE BROUGHT THOSE SITES DOWN TO MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT NOON TOMORROW. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIODS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

531 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
CELLS MOVING ACROSS MCKENZIE COUNTY AND INTO THEODORE ROOSEVELT
PARK NORTH. OUR CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HANDLES THIS
AREA WELL AND WILL CONTINUE. CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
IS THE SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST READY TO APPROACH
SCOBEY MONTANA. REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL WEST OF SCOBEY. THE
LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS REFLECTIVITY INTENSITY AS THIS AREA CROSSES
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING BAKER MONTANA WILL ALSO BE WATCHED THIS
EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BOWMAN RADAR INDICATIVE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHORTLY. LASTLY...WILL WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME INDICATION PER RAP AND NAM THAT
WE COULD SEE SOMETHING THIS EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND WANE BY 06Z TUESDAY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO KEEP
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS NORTHWEST
AND KEEP SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF/RAP ALL INDICATING SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE PRIMARY AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE NORTHWEST...WITH
CURRENT STORMS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...ADDED BY AN UPPER
LOW IN THE VICINITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE
STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND...WHERE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED. THIS AREA REMAINS OUTLOOKED IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA FOR HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN
TO NEAR TO INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
STRATUS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH THE EXITING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COOL AND
DRY WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY
SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. A BIT
WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS 70-75.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND REMAINING OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN
MODEL LIFTING THE CUTOFF LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE GFS MOVING THE CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MVFR TO IFR/VLIFR CIGS HOVERING OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA MONDAY EVENING...WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT
KISN BY TUESDAY 08Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KMOT BY 09Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
SLIDE SOUTH TO KDIK BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE
VFR AT KBIS/KJMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE VLIFR CIGS AT KISN WILL
LIFT TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING AND TO LOW VFR BY 21Z TUESDAY. KMOT
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR STATUS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1012 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OR EAST
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT IT ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SO HAVE CONTINUED TO CONCENTRATE
HIGHER POPS THERE. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH A
BIT BY THE TIME STORMS REACH THAT AREA AND BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS
THE STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED AT THAT POINT. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LEFTOVER MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL END UP PLAYING A
BIG ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
OTHERWISE-FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG STORMS.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THOUGH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...AND THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPACTED THE GREATEST BY REMNANTS FROM THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACTIVITY...A NEARLY-IMPOSSIBLE QUESTION
TO ANSWER UNTIL THE SITUATION TONIGHT PLAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO FAVOR INSTABILITY GROWING THE MOST
IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPEDING TO INSOLATION IN CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE NOT KEYING IN ON MUCH STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR DIURNALLY-TIMED
CONVECTION FIRING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IN AN AREA WHERE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG APPEAR
POSSIBLE (AS LONG AS THE SUN CAN HEAT THINGS UP FOR A WHILE). WNW
WIND SHEAR IS COMFORTABLY IN THE MODERATE AREA OF THE
SCALE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A LITTLE BIT OF TURNING (WSW AT THE SURFACE TO WNW AT
6KM)...OVERALL THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO PRIMARILY SUPPORT A WIND AND
HAIL THREAT (PERHAPS WITH SOME DISCRETE AND ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS).
UNLESS CONVECTION COMPLETELY OVERTURNS THE ATMOSPHERE...A THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

POPS WERE KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT RAMPED UP TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS WERE DROPPED TO ZERO AFTER 09Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD...BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER...WITH HIGHS DROPPING 5-10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. BY MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY
HOWEVER DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z
ESPECIALLY AROUND KDAY. BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT VFR WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS EVENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR WITH THIS DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO GO WITH THAT AS A PREVAILING CONDITION IN THE TAFS. APPEARS
THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
CINCINNATI TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

753 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WITH
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
THURSDAY. DRIER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARM...HUMID MEMORIAL DAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND REFINEMENTS TO THE TIMING ON
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY USING THE HRRR TIMING FOR THE EVENING AND
NAM TIMING FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THINGS STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR THUNDERSTORM SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NEAR 18Z...HAVE WARM FRONT CMH OHIO TO CRW WV
TO NR LNP VA. NICE DIFFERENCE IN CLOUD STRUGGLE ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. MORE CELLULAR IN WARM SECTOR IN EASTERN KY.

WILL STILL TRY TO LEAVE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY TONIGHT...FIGURING MID
LEVEL CAPE WILL HOLD...DESPITE THE LATE AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS.

RAP MODEL INDICATES SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX MOVING ESE THROUGH
EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV 03Z TO 05Z TONIGHT. SO NO BIG
CHANGES IN LEAVING SOME CHANCE POPS THERE TONIGHT. THOUGH...NOT
FIGURING ON STRONG CONVECTION. MAY BE A LULL IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT...HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

STILL FIGURING ON A CONVECTION COMPLEX FORMING IN THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND RIDING ESE DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO INCREASING POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WEAKENING FORM
OF THAT COMPLEX POSSIBLY REACHING THOSE COUNTIES TOWARD DAWN. SLOWED
DOWN THAT INCREASE BY A FEW HOURS...BUT NEED TO HAVE COMPLEX FORM
BEFORE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT ON TIMING AND HOW FAR SOUTH.

DURING WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT MORNING COMPLEX AND ITS
DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD AFFECT TIMING THE NEW CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
ON WEDNESDAY. SO DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO FANCY AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME. OVERALL...WE ARE STILL GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE HIGHER POPS
SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 700 MB MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO
ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THINKING WIND WOULD BE THE HIGHER THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WENT A SHADE COOLER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...FIGURING ON LESS CLOUDS AND THE WIND SUBSIDING A BIT.
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN MAXIMUM TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SINCE SO DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTION TIMING.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AT START OF PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT WELL
UPSTREAM...AND WARM ADVECTION SHEAR BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT. CAPE
VALUES ARE FCST AS HIGH AS 3 KJ/KG OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY ON DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S...ALONG WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.5
IN. 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS FAST MOVING STORMS SO FLOODING
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN BRIEF LOCALIZED HIGH WATER...LEAVING
WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT. FLOW REGIME COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING E-SE.

ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE NT AS SOME INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE NW...WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE AREA LATE WED NT AND THU. COULD THEREFORE STILL
SEE THUNDERSTORMS SRN ZONES THU BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT THU NT AND FRI.

NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES...WITH MET AND / OR GFS BASED MOS BLENDED IN
IN MOST CASES. INHERITED PACKAGE SHOWED MORE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAN MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUT PRESERVED GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE AS
THIS IS STILL SUGGESTED IN THE MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RULES AT THE SFC THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW
GIVES WAY TO RIDGING. EXPECT A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS START TO BECOME A FACTOR MON OR TUE...HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS MON
AFTERNOON...AND THEN A CHC EVERYWHERE TUE AFTERNOON.

INHERITED TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD...WITH MEX AND / OR WPC BLENDED
IN HERE AND THERE...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS ALL AT THE END. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE WAS LOWER BUT DID NOT SEE FIT TO LOWER MUCH IN THIS
PATTERN.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN OHIO INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE UNI-PKB-CKB CORRIDOR THROUGH
06Z. CONVECTION WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WITH COMPLEX REACHING EASTERN
OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. NEW
CONVECTION FORMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRENDING SOUTH
INTO THE HTS-CRW-BKW CORRIDOR BY 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MOSTLY AFTER 18Z...WITH CEILINGS BECOMING 2000 TO
3000 FT BKN/OVC AND VSBY DOWN 1 TO 3 MILES DURING STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING ON CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD VARY A BIT AS COULD THE TIMING ON THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER IT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 05/21/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION COMPLEXES THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGERING IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS NEAR THE COLD
FRONT 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/JR
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB/JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

150 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES ATTM.

630 PM UPDATE...

BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST
NIGHT...ELECTED TO UPGRADE RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS TO A FREEZE
WARNING. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND LAMP TAKE EKN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S WHICH WOULD CORRELATE A BIT LOWER IN COLD SPOTS OF E RANDOLPH
COUNTY...IE GLADY. HIGHER RIDGETOPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN H85 TEMPS VS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
BELIEVE A COUNTY WIDE AVG CAN BE ACHIEVED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT PATCHY FROST IN AREAS NOT IN
FROST ADVISORY...IE TRI STATE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TRANQUIL WX IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND IS
ESSENTIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES BY 09Z-12Z
MON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERNIGHT MINS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT FROST
HIGHLIGHTS...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS. VARIOUS NEAR
AND SHORT TERM NWP WIDE APART ON OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...WHICH LIKELY
STEM FROM EXACTLY HOW LOW DEWPTS DROP TODAY WITH MIXING. AT
15Z...HSP CURRENTLY REPORTING A 28F TD. LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR
OUTPUT...AMONG OTHERS...SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WAY DOWN IN THE MID 20S
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING ALL NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S.
NON-CONVECTIVE NWP RUN THE GAMUT IN BETWEEN...KEEPING DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 30S...AND SOME A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT. PLAN ON
WATCHING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL ON COVERAGE
OF TONIGHT/S FROST ADVISORY...BUT RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE PROBABLY
REMAINING CLOSE TO SOME FORM OF CONSMOS WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS POINT WITH TD/S RECOVERING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE LOWLANDS...AFTER AFTERNOON TD/S THIS AFTERNOON
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S. FROST DOES APPEAR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT
VERSUS LAST NIGHT...AND DO ANTICIPATE A FROST ADVISORY NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.

MONDAY...VERY NICE AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. LATEST NAM12 IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY AREA...BUT THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY
WEAK AND WILL TREAT THIS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RAISE OF SILENT POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WIND TURNS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT
TO BRING CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.

ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO MOVE EAST
UNDER ALMOST ZONAL FLOW BY MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY. IF FACT...IT COULD BE QUITE UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR UP TO 40
KNOTS MAINLY NORTH...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OH...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SREF
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR 80 DEGREES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. EVEN WARMER A AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT UNDER WARM ADVECTION.

USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ALL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIODS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING DRY AND FRESHER AIR TO SET IN FROM THE WEST. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO
WV THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CALM FLOW.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. LIFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 09Z TO 13Z...AFFECTING
MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. OTHERWISE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND COVERAGE TONIGHT MAY VARY SLIGHTLY.

DATE MON 05/19/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-024>040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-085-086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

232 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ACTIVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A
WEEK...COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SWINGING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC
COUNTIES TODAY SO FAR...BUT STORMS ARE FORMING OVER SISKIYOU AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES NOW AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT MODEL DATA FROM
THE RAP13 AND HRRR 3KM SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES AROUND 3PM AND THEN PUSH INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY AROUND 4 TO 5 PM. OF COURSE WE CAN`T TAKE THESE MODELS
VERBATIM...BUT THIS PROVIDES A GOOD IDEA OF THE SPATIAL EVOLUTION
AND MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND THEY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. HERE...A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW COULD SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE OUT THAT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES ON TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AREAS AWAY FROM MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. THE CURRY COUNTY COAST IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY, THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EC SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NEAR 130W SATURDAY, THEN THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE
PAC NW SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT NEAR
140W. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS AT THE SAME TIME. IN CONTRAST...THE
GFS SHOWS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY...TRACKING IT TOWARDS VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVING SOUTH INTO OREGON/WASHINGTON
MEMORIAL DAY. OF NOTE, THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR TO THE EC
AND THE RMOP GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A LOW PROBABILITY AND
PREDICTABILITY OF THE STRONGER TROUGH. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
GFS SOLUTION IS LOW AND WE`LL BE LEANING TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION,
THUS KEPT POPS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER
BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAT WAVE. MOST LIKELY THEY WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A COOL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
BETWEEN 22 AND 03Z WHICH COULD OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...UPDATED 19/1430 PDT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS. A THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED GALE FORCE WINDS AND STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS IN
WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS WATCH FOR THIS AREA. ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT STRONG SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THAT TIME...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS. AFTER A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 8
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

NSK/MAP/MAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1201 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND DESPITE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE POST- FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ON THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE-LINE NOW...MAKING A BEE-LINE FOR NW PA WITH STILL AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE STILL BEING DISPLAYED.

HOWEVER THE 23Z HRRR KEEPS THIS ZONE ACTIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST. I RAMPED UP THE POPS AND
EXPANDED THE COVERAGE AS EARLIER MODEL OUTPUT REALLY DOWNPLAYED
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. NEW MESO MODELS SEEM TO BE
FINALLY CATCHING UP.

WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MILD NIGHT IN
STORE WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SE OVER THE WARM FRONT ON WED...BRINGING SOME
BETTER DYNAMICS TO CENTRAL PA. BEST INSTABILITY/LIFT REMAINS OFF
TO OUR WEST THOUGH...AND PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR WEATHER WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THOSE REGIONS...BUT SOME STRONGER TSTORMS MAY
SLIP EASTWARD TOWARD OUR WESTERN BORDER LATER WED AS WARM SECTOR
WORKS NE AND MID LEVEL WINDS APPROACH 50 KTS. OVERALL
THOUGH...EXPECTING A SHOWERY DAY WITH SCT TSTORMS.

COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW DRIVING THIS WHOLE CONVOLUTED SYSTEM WILL
THEN RESIDE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR A DAY OR SO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WX COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE-TOPPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY/DIG SEWD FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLC AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES D3-4. THE UPPER LOW EXITING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL ANCHOR A MEAN TROUGH ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST SAT-
SUN BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY A GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE
D6-8.

THE 20/00Z AND 20/12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES CONTINUE TO HANDLE
THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTEN ACROSS THE CONUS REASONABLY WELL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AFTER DAY 6 RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF NOAM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...SCT SHWRS W/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY SFC COLD FRONT THRU CNTRL/RN PA EARLY THURS. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN THE RECENT COOL/DRY CYC FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH DIURNAL/INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING NORTH/EAST FROM
THE LWR MS VLY WILL PRODUCE A MORE TYPICAL EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN WITH
STRONG SIGNALS FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY FROM
MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS THEY ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE
NORTH EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD...AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT IPT. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT IN GENERAL...BUT EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS COULD
ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR THE SFC TO BE MIXED
AND CAUSED GUSTY WINDS AT UNV. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BETWEEN 06
TO 08Z AS THE SFC DECOUPLES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THROUGH TOMORROW
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CENTRAL PA...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WED INTO WED EVE.
LOWERING CIGS WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR MUCH OF WED. THE
SE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED TSTORM IMPACTS.

.OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG/LOW CIGS LIKELY NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. SCT MAINLY PM
TSRA IMPACTS POSS.

THU...EARLY AM FOG/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS POSS MAINLY N AND W WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1023 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND DESPITE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE POST- FRONTAL
NORTHWEST FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ON THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE-LINE NOW...MAKING A BEE-LINE FOR NW PA WITH STILL AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE STILL BEING DISPLAYED.

WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MILD NIGHT IN
STORE WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS THEY ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE
NORTH EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD...AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT IPT. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT IN GENERAL...BUT EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS COULD
ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MAINLY AFFECTING JST
AND BFD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE LAURELS AND THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS. HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT CAUSING ANY RESTRICTIONS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND DEFINITELY
ON TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CENTRAL PA...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WED INTO WED
EVE. LOWERING CIGS WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR MUCH OF WED.
THE SE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED TSTORM
IMPACTS.

.OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG/LOW CIGS LIKELY NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. SCT MAINLY PM
TSRA IMPACTS POSS.

THU...EARLY AM FOG/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS POSS MAINLY N AND W WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

340 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A LOW RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT AREAS OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NC...NE GA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE ALONG AND WEST OF I-26. THIS IS THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAIN SUN MORNING. LATEST MOS AND
NAM/HRRR CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT FOG WILL
REMAIN AND WILL LIKELY THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THICK FOG WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM.

TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT H5...A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT MTN WAVE CIRRUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES EAST TO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A FEW CAMS INDICATE THAT BRIEF SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. I
WILL FEATURE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC RIDGE POPS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR
70 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS.

TONIGHT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT H5...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE OVER EASTERN
KY/TN BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN ADDITION...SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM MON...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW
TUE AND TUE NITE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARE IS KNOCKED DOWN AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS NC. THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MAY BE ENUF TO
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE
ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
SHUD REMAIN CAPPED WITH ANY INSTABILITY WELL ABOVE THE SFC WITH VERY
HIGH LFC HEIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF AVL AND NEAR THE NC/SC/GA
BORDERS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHUD QUICKLY TAPER OFF
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FORCING MOVING
EAST. HIGHS TUE AND LOWS TUE NITE SHUD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WED AND WED NITE AS NWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE WRN GULF
COAST. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FLOW
AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU
THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH THESE FEATURES...INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AS LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE ACTUALLY
INCREASES PUSHING LFC HEIGHTS EVEN HIGHER. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE MTNS
ALONG THE TN BORDER...THE WARM NOSE ERODES ALLOWING LFC HEIGHTS TO
FALL AND INSTABILITY TO APPROACH MODERATE LEVELS. STILL EXPECT
COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE FORCING/INSTABILITY COMBO REMAINS
WEAK. HOWEVER...SHRA COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVES CLOSER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HIGHS WED
RISE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
RISE. LOWS WED NITE WILL RISE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...NWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THRU MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FLOW BECOMES NLY SUNDAY
AS BOTH FEATURES MOVE EAST. AT THE SFC...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THU...STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRI...THEN MOVES TO NEAR THE GULF COAST SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTNS THU...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REST OF NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WAVE MOVING NEAR THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. CHANCE OF CONVECTION DIMINISHES GREATLY SAT AND SUNDAY AS THE
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THU...FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRI...THEN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SUNDAY. LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THU NITE FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FRI AND SAT NITES.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 530Z...OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING KCLT RANGED FROM IFR TO
VFR...WITH VIS AT THE TERMINAL REMAINING VFR. CLEAR SKY COVER AND
CALM WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE
LATEST MOS INDICATE THAT VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT VERY LOW VALUES OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL DEVELOP OVER KCLT DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF FOG WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 9Z-12Z FOR MVFR FOG. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST AROUND SUNRISE TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING....SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SCT CU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 060 KFT BY 17Z.

ELSEWHERE...MOS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC AND
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS THIS MORNING. I WILL INDICATE THAT CEILINGS
AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG IS FORECAST TO
FALL TO LIFR AT KAND AND KAVL...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. I WILL INDICATE
A PRE DAWN TEMPO FOR MVFR AT KHKY. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST AROUND SUNRISE TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING....SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SCT CU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 060 KFT BY 17Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 47% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 64% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 59% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

157 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID
WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF FOG THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL
BETWEEN 3-6 DEGREES BY SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
MTN VALLEYS.

AS OF 1015 PM...CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS DEWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THE LWR-MID 50S...WHILE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL...WITH THE
NAM...RAP..NARRE ALL SHOWING GOOD POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. I
CONSIDERED ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE WITH THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL JUST A BIT TOO LOW...AS SOME
STRATOCUMULUS LINGER. THE NAM STILL SHOWS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE 925-850 MB FLOW...AND THE 18Z GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY. SO THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...I
HAVE BUMPED UP WORDING TO AREAS OF FOG IN THESE MENTIONED
AREAS...AND MENTION DENSE FOG IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

AS OF 730 PM...FOR THE 2330 UTC UPDATE...ALL MENTIONABLE POPS WERE
REMOVED...AS RADAR SHOWS RAIN HAS ENDED. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY/WIND/WX FOR THE 00Z TAFS. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT SKIES
ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY RIGHT BEFORE
NIGHTFALL. THE LATEST DEWPTS ARE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ACRS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT LOWER IN THE NE CORNER
IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING A BIT
FOGGIER. I/LL AWAIT TRENDS INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND SOME MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN AND DO ANOTHER UPDATE ON FOG
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW FOR ANY
KIND OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

AS OF 430 PM...FOR THE 2030 UTC UPDATE...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO WORK ACRS THE GA AND SC PIEDMONTS...WHILE SKIES CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS NC. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO
TEMPS/DEWPTS/SKY TO LINE UP WITH OBS/SAT. POPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 215 PM...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION IS THAT THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...
THINNING OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS IS REVEALING
A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WE HAVE
THEREFORE RETAINED SMALL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NC MTNS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIP SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A MEMORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.

WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRYING...THE MAJOR SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE A BIT AT ODDS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM RETAINS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND TURNS WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
COULD RESULT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.
THIS IS LIKELY WHY NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM FOR TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND EVEN MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT AS
MOIST AND UPSLOPE...SO WE HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO COOL MAV GUIDANCE...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DEPENDING
UPON HOW LOWER CLOUDS EVOLVE (IF AT ALL)...FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESP IN MTN VALLEYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY ON MONDAY...WHILE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE PROGRESSING EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO
SURGE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL REMAIN PREVALENT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL PASS ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN POTENTIAL CIN
EROSION AND CORRESPONDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. THEREFORE....FCST NOW FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THESE POPS WILL TAPER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND THE WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE AREA.

ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE AND ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING PROFILES
TO DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL WORK TO STRENGTHEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE ZONES DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CAP EROSION. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INTRUDING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CA

AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WED
EVENING WITH A WARM 500MB RIDGE WITH ITS 539 DEM CENTER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND A CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVING SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ALSO AT THAT TIME...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND VIRGINIAS DROPPING SOUTH WITH HIGHEST CAPES OVER KY
MOVING TO TN. LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA WILL BE WEST WED NIGHT
AND NW THURSDAY AND NIGHT AROUND THE STACKED HIGH CENTER. THIS FLOW
FROM THE NW WILL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE ON THURSDAY WARMING FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT AT LEAST TO AROUND 90. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER MTNS AS MINIMAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CAPES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EAST
OF MTNS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE A SMALL MCS MOVING SE
FROM TN INTO THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE IT COMING SE
OUT OF MTNS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SURVIVING AS IT CROSSES FROM THE MTNS TO NE GA AND THE
UPSTATE. COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT FROM N AND
NE. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER OHIO RIVER EARLY SATURDAY AND
CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AT 00Z MONDAY.

THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON THURS AND FRI IN THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST...ALONG THE SLOWLY PASSING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THEN DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 530Z...OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING KCLT RANGED FROM IFR TO
VFR...WITH VIS AT THE TERMINAL REMAINING VFR. CLEAR SKY COVER AND
CALM WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE
LATEST MOS INDICATE THAT VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT VERY LOW VALUES OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL DEVELOP OVER KCLT DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF FOG WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 9Z-12Z FOR MVFR FOG. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST AROUND SUNRISE TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING....SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SCT CU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 060 KFT BY 17Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 58% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 55% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 61% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ARE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A
NARROW AREA OF MIXED LAYER CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL EXIST.
MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TNT AS S/W
MOVES ACROSS STATE. WITH INSTABILITY AXIS SO NARROW SUSPECT THAT
IF ANY STORMS GET GOING OVER THE EAST THEY WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY
BY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING NEAR FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNSET AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AT BEST. FOR THE WESTERN CWA AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT
THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH S/W IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEAK
MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM BEFORE
HEATING ENDS. THE HRRR HAS COME AROUND TO THIS IDEA THUS WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN CWA. AFTER THIS
EVENING THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THEN REMAINS IN
COMMAND FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

IT FINALLY APPEARS THE REGION WILL STAY IN A MILD/WARM PATTERN
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO START OFF THE PERIOD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE CWA IS STILL FEELING EFFECTS OF STABLE
SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. CONFINED PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...MORE
UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION. IT
WOULD APPEAR PATTERN TRIES TO GET STORMIER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE STAYING MILD. COULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN
REGARDS TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH...OVERALL BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS MVFR STRATUS COULD WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS A LITTLE LOW AT THIS POINT. WILL
TAKE THE RAPID REFRESH`S OUTPUT UNDER ADVISEMENT...BUT CONTINUE
WITH VFR FOR THE ENTIRE TAF VALID PERIOD FOR NOW.

ALSO...THERE IS A BOUNDARY WORKING EAST TOWARD KATY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT OR NEAR KATY
ONCE WHOLESALE LIFT FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING
THROUGH CATCHES UP TO IT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW AND
LOOK TO ONLY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

330 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ARE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SD
AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A NARROW
AREA OF MIXED LAYER CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL EXIST. MEANWHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TNT AS S/W MOVES ACROSS
STATE. WITH INSTABILITY AXIS SO NARROW SUSPECT THAT IF ANY STORMS
GET GOING OVER THE EAST THEY WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING NEAR FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE DONE BY SUNSET AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
FOR THE WESTERN CWA AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT WITH S/W IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEAK MIXED LAYER
CAPE COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM BEFORE HEATING
ENDS. THE HRRR HAS COME AROUND TO THIS IDEA THUS WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN CWA. AFTER THIS EVENING
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THEN REMAINS IN COMMAND FOR
A COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT KATY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOWER CIGS BY 20Z OR SO WHEN CIGS SHOULD BE
INTO VFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLD -SHRA OR -TSRA DOTTING THE RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND INSERT MENTION
INTO TAFS AS NECESSARY.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

231 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE TO AROUND THE
BIG BEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY TIGHT WITH
BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS. THE 4KM WRF AND HRRR ALL
SHOW SOME EARLY MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING BUT
OTHER THAN THAT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE A BIT TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES BUT THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET SHUNTED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY RETREATING UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES. 43

.MARINE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHEASTERN BASED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOWER WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHEAST
FETCH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BAY WATER CONDITIONS AND GULF SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CHOPPY TO WITHIN 2 TO 4 FEET...RESPECTIVELY.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION...ANY RAIN
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO JUST BRIEF NORTHERN-PASSING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 86 70 87 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 86 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1014 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...THE LAKE BREEZE HAS COOLED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. AFTER THE SHOWERS END
AND CLOUDS DECREASE...THE FOG SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER ERN
WI. THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE WRN CWA IS A RESULT OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
STAY SOUTH WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS ALONG WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS. INCREASING WNWLY WINDS
WILL END THE FOG BY MID LATE WED AM.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS TO END DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS COMING FROM LAKE MI WILL AFFECT THE
ERN WI TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KMKE UNTIL LATE WED AM WHEN WNWLY
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES WITH
STRATUS AROUND 400 FEET AT KMKE AND NEAR THE LAKE. VFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE WED AM INTO WED NT AS WNWLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA.

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS BROUGHT DENSE FOG INTO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND BRING MILDER AND DRIER AIR OVER
THE LAKE...THEREBY ENDING THE FOG.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS PLENTY OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SRN CWA.
MID LEVEL CAP SUPPRESSING THINGS A BIT BUT THIS IS PROGGD TO ERODE
WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK RESULTING IN UNFAVORABLE
0-1KM SHEAR. CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. MID LEVEL CAP IS A SUPPRESSING
FORCE. 850 LOW LEVEL JET IS WELL SOUTH AND NO DISCERNIBLE
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN WATER VAPOR. ON THE PLUS SIDE 0-6KM SHEAR IS
INCREASING INTO SC WI AT 40-50 KNOTS. CRAVEN/BROOKS SHOWS 50,000
INTO SC WI. AGAIN..NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
WEAK FLOW AND BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMBINED WITH APPCH FRONTAL
FORCING WILL LIKELY GET THINGS GOING. HRRR/NAM/GFS ALL POTENTIAL
FOR MOST ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 00-06Z IN THE SRN TWO TIERS
WITH THE 4KM SPC WRF SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
SOUTH WITH CONVECTION STAYING LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH. BULK OF DATA
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 THIS
AFTN/EVENING. IF THE STORMS GET GOING THEN LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST FAVORABLE THREAT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTIFUL CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C RANGE. SIGNIFICANT HAIL
PARAMETER HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY INTO SC WI THIS AFTN WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AT LEAST 7.5C. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO HAS HIGHER
HAIL PROBABILITIES INTO SC WI AS WELL. DOWNDRAFT CAPE PUSHING 1000
NEAR THE BORDER SO SOME WIND THREAT THERE AS WELL. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING IN THE SRN CWA AND TRAIL THINGS OFF IN
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH BEST VORT ACTION WITHIN THIS FLOW WELL
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. 850 COLD ADVECTION GRADUALLY
COMMENCES ...THOUGH ONLY SUBTLE COOLING AT 925 NOTED AFTER 18Z.
SO WILL FORECAST TOASTY TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME AREAS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 WITH PREDOMINANTLY WNW FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON AREA...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE SPEED MAX INCREASES TO 105
KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY. 700 MB RH
DRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 700/850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO RISE A LITTLE AT 850 MB LATER
THURSDAY. 850 MB RH INCREASES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SO SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
IS CONFINED TO THE 850 MB LAYER JUST BELOW THE STRONG INVERSION.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WISCONSIN AREA THURSDAY. THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH LAKE
MICHIGAN COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER AT 850 MB. NOT THICK ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY AND OVER WISCONSIN SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY. THIS BEGINS A SOUTH FLOW OF WARMER AIR. THE
12Z GFS AND 06Z DGEX SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF REMAINS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IS
PREFERRED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AND WEAK CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN AT
DAY 7.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX ALL BRING PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AND CONTINUES IT ON TUESDAY AS THE SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTN/EVE. ML CAPES HAVE REACHED 2000 PLUS. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO
BUBBLE UP FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PER SWODY1...AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 ARE MORE UNDER THE GUN. LARGE CAPE VALUES IN
THE -10 TO -30C SO CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HRRR SHOWS
SCT CELLS DVLPG 22-00Z ACRS SRN WI WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH AFTER EVENING DEVELOPMENT IN ERN IA. 850 COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHIFTING INTO
THE OH VLY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

635 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FIRED ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE DUBUQUE AREA...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
THERE. ANTICIPATING OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION WILL HELP TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
AND FARTHER SOUTH. APPEARS ONLY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
GRANT...CLAYTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES COULD BE CLIPPED BY
SHOWERS/STORMS COMING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA.

MEANWHILE...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS...EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE EVENING TO SEE IF IT CAN
IMPACT SOUTHEAST MN. WOULD ANTICIPATE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT HAS BEEN INVADING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN UNDER THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...REPORTS
OF RAIN ARE HARD TO COME BY. 20.21Z RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
BAND WILL DIMINISH AS IT COMES INTO SOUTHEAST MN THIS EVENING...SO
GIVEN ALL OF THIS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENING OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA PER LATEST MOSAIC RADAR. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO
CENTRAL IOWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG SURFACE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
20.12Z GFS/NAM AND 20.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING ALONG SURFACE FRONT CAP
WILL BREAK IN THE 22Z TUESDAY - 02Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.16Z
HRRR DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 23Z ACROSS SOUTHERN
FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. THE 20.15Z RAP AND 20.12Z NAM
INDICATES ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE AND 0-6KM
SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 20.15Z
RAP/20.12Z NAM SHOW 0-1KM SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVER THIS AREA.
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY COULD SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND WIND OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND DRIER AIR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHERE THE MAIN
CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
20.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND...THEN
BREAKING DOWN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DEVELOP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 00Z MONDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EJECTING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THEN...FIRST IMPULSE BEGINS TO BREAK RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE 20.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH EACH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOW BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE PLUS 14 TO PLUS
16 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL HELP TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN THE BASES LOOK TO STAY
VFR. REGARDING THAT NORTHWEST FLOW...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY TO PICK UP
THE WINDS. 10-15 KT SPEEDS LOOK COMMON AT BOTH TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING ON...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
FEW LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE BLACK RIVER. THE BLACK RIVER
HAS RISEN ABOVE FLOOD OR IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT A
COUPLE LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1258 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOCAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THAT ARE MOVING EAST IN THE INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE
19.05Z HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND
INTO DRIER AIR AND THAT BY 12Z...WHAT REMAINS OF THEM SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALLOWS THE ATTENTION AND RAIN
CHANCES TO BE TIED TO THE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THESE WAVES WILL BE. GOOD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS COME WITH THE WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FIRING
SOME CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE
19.00Z NAM AND GFS INTENSIFY THIS WAVE AS IT COMES EAST...ALMOST
APPEARING AS BOTH MODELS ARE SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
WITH IT. THE 19.00Z ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT SHOW THIS INTENSIFICATION
AND KEEP THE WAVE PRETTY WEAK AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY CAN FORM ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE MORE NORTHERN WAVE BEING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUS AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE TAKING IT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A PERIOD
DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE AREA WILL BE ON
THE EASTERN AND CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH 2 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE LIFT MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 80
PERCENT TAPERING DOWN TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. NOT A WHOLE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TODAY
WITH THE NAM SHOWING AT MOST AROUND 500 J/KG OF MU CAPE ACROSS THE
FAR WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NAM SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 4 UBAR/S ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THIS UP
GLIDE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TAPERING OFF TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD STALL EITHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. GOOD CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SHOWN BY THE NAM ALONG
WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPARK DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
SHOULD BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND ONLY THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS. WITH MOST THE MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO HONOR THIS
WITH SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THOUGH.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A CUT OFF LOW WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT DIFFER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES NORTH OF THE CUT OFF LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS TROUGH BACK ON THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF SHOWING A CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE GFS
BEING DRY. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 32 KTS AT KRST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 1500
FT TO 3000 FT RANGE. A CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT DETERMINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT
WEAKENING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT...EXPECTING A 2 TO 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
INTO THE 700 TO 900 FT RANGE. NAM AND GFS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT BUT DIDN/T BUY INTO THOSE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIXING AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI ARE BEGINNING TO GO DOWN WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE FROM LA CROSSE AND NORTH.
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK FOR SITES
SOUTH OF LA CROSSE WHERE THE CREST IS JUST NOW ARRIVING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

647 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH BRUNT OF THIS MOVING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LIMITED
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. THUS WITH THE FIRST
EXPECTED ROUND OF RAIN ONLY CARRIED -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH VFR CIGS/
VSBYS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA
OR ISOLATED TSRA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
15-20KT G20-30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.

GRADIENT RELAXES THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DAKOTAS LOW.
INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE SFC-
850MB LAYER ARRIVES. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
VFR. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE. THUS ONLY CARRIED
VCTS/CB IN THE 04-09Z PERIOD AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WITH THE LIGHTER
GRADIENT AND THE LOW/BROAD SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
RAINS AT SOME POINT TODAY OR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CIGS BY LATE
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 2K-3K FT RANGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

332 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

AN INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STAYING VFR DUE
TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WITH WHETHER ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM LATER TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THE MAIN PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD THOUGH SOME CHANCES WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD MAINLY BE
VFR THOUGH...WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE
OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE JUST
VIRGA...BUT SOME OF IT HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND AS A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN. ONE CELL IN
NORTHERN IOWA IS EVEN SHOWN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DESPITE 0-3KM
MUCAPE SHOWING UP AS LESS THAN 100 J/KG ON THE 19.01 RAP ANALYSIS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPDATES WITH BRINGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS IN EARLIER OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO LIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA...BUT THERE IS A STRONG SURGE OF 925-700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...MAXED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 18-06Z MON. SOME SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...AND SOME HELP FROM A 300
MB JET STREAK. DECENT PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCOMPANIES
THE LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET NOSING INTO
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY...ALL HANGING
TO THE WEST VIA THE NAM/GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG
MUCAPE FOR MONDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES MAY
HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHERN WI BY THIS TIME. 0-6KM SHEAR GOOD AT 40+
KTS...BUT WITH LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH...DON/T SEE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY MID WEEK...POINTING TO RIDGING BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NIGHT...EASING OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING
OR EXCEEDING THE LATE MAY NORMALS - LOW 70S. SHOULD BE A RAIN-FREE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MOVING INTO SUNDAY AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

719 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

BEGAN PEELING OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING COUNTIES OUT OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE
WITH SOME LIGHT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PLATTE AND GOSHEN
COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...THEREFORE THE CANCELLATION OF THE WATCH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWFA. STARTING TO GET SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA WITH PRETTY GOOD DEWPOINTS. GETTING UPPER 40S OUT BY
CHADRON...47 HERE AT CHEYENNE AND 43 UP BY DOUGLAS. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ANALYZED AT THIS TIME. LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE WITH -3C IN THE GENERAL LOCATION WHERE CONVECTION IS
INITIATING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CLOSED LOW MOVING
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT LIFTED INDICES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO -3 TO -4C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE BY 00Z. LATEST HRRR CONVECTIVE FORECAST KEYED INTO A
SUPERCELL DEVELOPING NEAR WHEATLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS TORRINGTON BY 23Z AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN SIOUX COUNTY
BY THE 00-01Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z. HIGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FORECASTS OF
60 TO 65KTS SHOULD SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS
THAT GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. ONE LAST ITEM WITH THE STORMS
TODAY. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS ARE LOW...GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
SO WE NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
MAYBE MORE DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA DOWN HERE NEAR
CHEYENNE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...WITH
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUN AND MON WITH THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISING
DEFORMATION PRECIP BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN EVENT DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY
AS THIS WILL CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES IF THIS PCPN FALLS OVER THE SNOW
PACKED MOUNTAINS. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEG C THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST PERIOD...GIVING WAY TO HIGHS BETWEEN 65 AND 75
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE RETURNS
ON MON...GIVING WAY TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME UPSLOPING STRATUS TO DEVELOP HERE AT
KCYS AND POSSIBLY KLAR. WENT MVFR OF CEILINGS...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO LOWER FURTHER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS
AND FUELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN DISTRICTS
MOST DAYS WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

605 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

403 AM EDT Wed May 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After keeping an eye out for some potential dense fog across SE AL
and western portions of the FL Panhandle this morning, a mostly
sunny, hot, and fairly dry day is expected across the region this
afternoon, with just a possible shallow CU field along the sea
breeze front. High temps should range from the middle 80s along the
coast to the lower 90s over much of the interior, with even hotter
weather on tap for the end of the week.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A deep and vertically-stacked ridge will be situated basically
right on top of our forecast area for the end of the work week
(Thursday and Friday). In fact, the 500mb heights will build close
to 5900m which is around 1.5 standard deviations above normal.
850mb temperatures are also forecast to increase into the +19C
range, which is close to 2 standard deviations above normal and
right around the 99th percentile for May for Tallahassee. This
creates high confidence in above-normal temperatures for both
days, and it seems likely that model guidance is underestimating
potential highs. Other factors favoring hot weather include the
surface-850mb ridge axis being positioned just west of our area,
setting up northwesterly low-level flow which could suppress the
inland progression of the sea breeze. Additionally, the column
should be fairly dry (and thus limited to no cloud cover is
expected) with 1000-500mb deep layer RH less than 40%. For
Thursday, model guidance is more tightly clustered in the lower
90s, whereas a couple rule-of-thumb charts based on 850mb temps
suggest mid 90s are likely with a few upper 90s not out of the
question. The latest forecast calls for widespread mid-90s on
Thursday, which is warmer than guidance. However, it`s not
inconceivable that a few upper 90s could occur. Thursday should
see fairly deep mixing, and given the dry column the surface RH
and dewpoints should be relatively low. For Friday, there may be a
little more humidity. Guidance is warmer overall - in the mid 90s
- and that is also what our forecast calls for.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term period will be hot and for the most part dry as deep
layer ridging will park itself over our CWA. Late in the weekend a
weak frontal boundary will position itself over our CWA. With the
frontal boundary combined with the inland progression of the sea
breeze, there may be potential for some isolated thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon and early evening. Therefore maintained a
20-25% PoP from Sunday afternoon through the end of the period with
the greatest chance of a thunderstorm being generally north of the
Florida border.

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] Fairly tricky fog fcst across the terminals
tonight with the potential for a repeat of IFR/LIFR conditions at
ECP. Though most of the guidance is very skeptical, the HRRR and
developing Satellite imagery are not, and am also a bit concerned
for some dense fog approaching DHN before the overnight hours are
through. Also expect some minor MVFR level conditions at TLH and VLD
for a short period. Any fog should burn off rapidly during the day
today, with VFR conditions quickly returning.

.Marine...

Winds should be less than 15 knots with seas 2 feet or less
through the weekend, with no rain or thunderstorms expected.
Locally stronger and gusty winds are possible near the coast each
afternoon due to the sea breeze. It`s possible we may have more
active rip currents along the Walton, Bay, and Gulf County beaches
on Thursday and Friday with gusty onshore flow, surf heights as
high as 2 feet, and a longer fetch of westerly flow over the far
northern Gulf of Mexico.

.Fire Weather...

Although afternoon relative humidities will be very low across much
of the interior on Thursday, no other criteria will be met to cause
any Red Flag concerns.

.Hydrology...

Only one area river is currently in minor flood, the Steinhatchee.
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage
late Tonight, cresting just above flood at 13.2 feet. Little or
no rainfall is expected through next weekend.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 91 63 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 87 68 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 91 65 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 91 65 94 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 93 65 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 90 62 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 83 67 89 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 0

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...BARRY/NAVARRO
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/GODSEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

132 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DICTATING NEAR TERM TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE LINES ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM REDUCED VIS IN HEAVY RAINFALL. KFWA TO SEE
END TO PCPN BY 07Z BUT RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS WEST OF KSBN
THAT MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THAT SITE THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z. MVFR
CIGS AND VIS DEVELOPMENT IN COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LOW END CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CLOSER TO KFWA SO INCLUDED
A PROB30 THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1250 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
BACK INTO IOWA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR
INDICATES RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. SO FAR...HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
INDICATION OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL FROM THE CONVECTION OFF TO
THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. 850MB FLOW INTO THE CONVECTIVE AREA IS DECENT...BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG.

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TONIGHT/S FORECAST CONCERNING HOW
FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL GET. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING
DRIER AND PUSHING THE POPS NORTH FOR SEVERAL RUNS THIS MORNING...BUT
LATEST RUNS OF RAP HAVE STARTED BRINGING ECHOES FURTHER SOUTH AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP INITIAL FORMATION WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY FOR A TIME AFTER 0Z. BY 6Z
HOWEVER COULD SEE STORMS STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...AND WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO SEE
AN MCS DEVELOP AND RIDGE THE THETA E GRADIENT AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WHICH COULD BRING IT INTO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. NAM SEEMS TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT A DECENT BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND GENERALLY DISCOUNTED IT. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY AND VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW...THINK BEST COURSE
OF ACTION IS TO INCLUDE MID CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TO
NORTHEASTERN BORDER AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER AROUND 9Z THAT RUNS THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW CHANCE
OF A RIGHT TURNING MCS

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN FAVORED WARMER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
CONTINUED STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES (MFVR) ACROSS THE NRN SITES SUCH AS
KLAF...CLOSER TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...HAVE BACKED OFF
ON MENTIONING ANY VCTS AND CB...SAVE FOR KLAF. KIND KHUF AND KBMG
LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH TO LIMIT ANY IMPACTS FROM A WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. MVFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STORMS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME CLEARING BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS AT
THIS TIME. ONLY INDICATED A LOW STRATUS DECK AROUND 4K FT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

446 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING MUCH FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS. THE MOST RECENT
RAP TRENDS INDICATE DOWNWARD MOTION GETTING STRONGER ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE MORNING COMMUTE HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERAL LOWS WERE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT RAN FROM WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND 50S
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT HELPED INITIATE NEW
STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT SLOW
MOVING...THESE STORMS PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN A
VERY SHORT TIME PERIOD.

TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE THE CURRENT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN A NARROW BAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS.

MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING. NEW
STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CLOSE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...THE AFTERNOON STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW A NEW
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
THE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH
AND THE RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE CLOSE TO
THE AREA.

THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS
INDICATES THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THEN PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SATURDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. WILL IT RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME. NO. HOWEVER...THE BIG PICTURE
INDICATES THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THE OVERALL TREND FOR SHOWERS AND STORM THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD
BE DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE THREAT OF
STORMS AT DBQ SHOULD BE VERY LOW WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALREADY
TO THE SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KCID WITH
SHRA/TSRA OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO
SUPPORTED KEEPING A VCTS GOING A MLI FOR A FEW HOURS. THE THREAT
OF SHRA/TSRA AT KBRL SHOULD BE LOW SO DID NOT MENTION ANY
SHRA/TSRA THERE. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEAR...HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR THE WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH 06Z.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

349 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE THE CURRENT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN A NARROW BAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

SATURDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

337 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

ISOLATED CENTRAL IA THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS
DISSIPATED QUICKLY LAST HOUR. RAP SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO REFLECT THE
ENVIRONMENT QUITE WELL WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MLCINH INCREASING QUICKLY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FURTHER AND DECOUPLING FINALLY TAKING PLACE.
WITH THIS PROGRESSION DO NOT REALLY EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

SCENARIO FOR TODAY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL CONDITIONAL. MODELS ALL DEPICT
SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCINH ERODING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER WHILE THE CINH
HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...LIMITING
FACTORS INCLUDE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND THE FACT THAT WARM 1-3KM
TEMPS WILL KEEP PARCELS FROM REALLY ACCELERATING UNTIL REACHING
3KM OR HIGHER. THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER THE WEAK CONVERGENCE
WILL OVERCOME THIS. LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY HELP LIFT AND
DESTABILIZATION OF 1-3KM LAYER TOWARD 00Z HOWEVER AS CURRENT
DAKOTAS MN JET SEGMENT MOVES EASTWARD. THUS STILL HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN HIGHWAY 30/I80/HIGHWAY 92
CORRIDORS. MAIN SEVERE THREATS STILL APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL OR
WIND. LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK WITH HIGHER LCLS. STORM MOTION
WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW TOO BASED ON MEAN WIND AND BUNKERS
MOTION...LIKELY UNDER 25KTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH GENERALLY
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT TIMES
BUT PRIMARILY RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE BORDER
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED
JUST 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 30 POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40S EACH MORNING WITH NO FROST EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE LARGE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL
APPROACH IOWA...MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
HERALDING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REGIME FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SURFACE FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CONCURRENT WITH A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP RIGHT BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS AND PROMOTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH POPS IN THE 40S AND 50S FORECAST DUE TO MINOR TIMING
DISCREPANCIES IN THESE FEATURES. AFTER THIS INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME CLEARS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MID LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD WITH A PROBABLE DRY PERIOD AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER CONCURRENTLY A LARGE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER AND SUBSEQUENTLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PRETTY WET WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AMONG THE
LONGER RANGE PROGNOSTIC MODELS. ALL IN ALL IT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
WETTER PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY APPEARS RELATIVELY
LOW FOR THE SEASON AND THE RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THESE
TWO PERIODS...ONE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THE SECOND FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE DETAILS
WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

LINGERING STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM THROUGH 08Z OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS INCREASE
AFT 15Z WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS AS
COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 23Z. /REV

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1206 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS MAY 14
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1121 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING IN THE LOCAL AREA WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING AND INCREASING CIN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE AREA IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
ON NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LLJ. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE AND MOVES THAT
AREA NORTH INTO WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHICH MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC FORECAST FROM THE NAM OF THE
POSITION OF THE LLJ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

AIR MASS IS RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE BELOW 700 MB WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS TO OUR SOUTH. PROBLEM IS
THE LEVELS ABOVE ALL THIS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT THROUGH JET
LEVEL AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO A RATHER
DEEP/VERY DRY EML IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. THIS IS BASICALLY SQUASHING
WHAT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP WHICH IS A RATHER WIDESPREAD FLAT CUMULUS
FIELD.

THE BEST LIFT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LEAST CAP IS OVER THE
FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID EVENING. SO
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA. BY 06Z...THE CAP STRENGTHENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECT WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS AROUND TO
BE DONE. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IF CLOUD
COVER DECREASES ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH
READING DROPPING TO NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FIRST IN A SERIES
OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS WILL START ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...LIFT
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WHAT IS AROUND RIGHT
NOW. CONSIDERING THE STRONGER LIFT...LARGE INSTABILITY...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET WITH ALL THREATS
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN BY MID AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE THERMAL FIELD. TENDED TO BLEND THE
GUIDANCE WITH A HEDGE TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE CONSIDERING THE THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THE FOCUS/MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HEIGHTENED MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE AND WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY
HAVE COME DOWN SOME FROM THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY SO AM NOW MORE
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG TORNADO COMPLETELY WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
BUT SHEAR AND HELICITY DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF
STRONG TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE
STORMS CONGEAL INTO SMALL CLUSTERS AND FADE IN INTENSITY.

ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
THIS IS A SIMILAR SETUP TO WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT LINGERING
ALONG HIGHWAY 96 IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THIS
DAY...CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS FOR THURSDAY WITH SBCAPE OF
2000-3500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER...WIND
SHEAR AND HELICITY DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT
WEAKENS. WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED AND CONVECTION LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY...THINK THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING INCREASES THURSDAY
FOR LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OR WHERE GROUND HAS
BEEN SATURATED FROM WEDNESDAYS CONVECTION. OVERALL...THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO CONCERNS OVER THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM CONFIDENT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RECHARGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL GO
WITH THIS MODE OF THINKING FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...AIR
STABILIZED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE DAYTIME
STRATUS ARE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWING AROUND THE
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES
APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASED QPF FORECAST AND MAINTAINED MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BECOME A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT BUT LOCAL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND STORMS TRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EJECTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
SHOULD BE THE LAST PRECIPITATION CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES...INTO THE MID 80S...RETURN
TUESDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT THEN MOVING NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1208 AM CDT Wed May 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period. Thunderstorm chances
increase tomorrow afternoon around 21z with another more
widespread round possible after this issuance in the late evening
early morning hours. 67

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

343 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SURFACE AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS PROVIDE A STRAIGHTFORWARD
DIAGNOSIS FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE FORCING BUT THAT STILL LEAVES A
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR WHAT MAY FOLLOW LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS ANCHORED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH HAS AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING INTO
A BROADER SURFACE WAVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN RIPPLING ALONG THE MAIN
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS IS ALIGNED ALONG THIS SURFACE PRESSURE FEATURE WITH
BACKGROUND VERTICAL MOTION SUPPLIED BY AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION
UNDER THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE UPPER JET. THE RESULT IS CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND WEAKER STORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SINCE MIDNIGHT...
CONCERN HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH
INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GREATEST. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN
THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. BASED ON MODEL MEAN
RH TRENDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND NOON.

OTHER THAN A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
SETUP. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL MSL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS PLACES THE
TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND
18Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING BEHIND THE MORNING CONVECTIVE PATTERN
WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH SUFFICIENT
RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RECOVERY IS THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
REASONABLE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST NAM AND RAP OUTPUT
STILL OFFERS 0-1KM MLCAPE RECOVERING TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7C/KM IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER AS THE EML SUPPORTING THE EARLY MORNING STORMS IS
DIRECTED INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. REMAINING IN PLACE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SOLID STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH
ANCHORED BY 50-60 KNOTS OF FLOW AROUND 500 MB AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS. DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE A MORE VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS...BUT THE
OVERALL PROFILE IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF STORM SPLITS/SUPERCELL
ORGANIZATION EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. PLAN TO CALL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS UNTIL SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN
BE REFINED WITH OBSERVATIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOWERS AND
WEAKER STORMS SHOULD OTHERWISE BECOME NUMEROUS BY LATER AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EVERYTHING OUT OF
THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

COLD ADVECTION PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN CORRIDOR OF CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. H85
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL FROM 10C LATE TONIGHT TO 4C FRIDAY
MORNING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSURE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE AFTERNOON STRATOCU,
PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING
ALONG IN THE FLOW ALOFT. INFLUX OF THE COOLER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
VERY GRADUALLY MIGRATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN SLOWS IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. REBOUNDING THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FROM LOW/MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW 80S BY MONDAY.

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1225 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
ALONG THE WARM FRONT LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SW LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS FROM PTK SOUTH THROUGH THE DTW AREA. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD FUNNEL SOME IFR CONDITIONS
INTO MBS AND MVFR INTO FNT IN EITHER OR LOW CEILING AND FOG BY
SUNRISE. BEHIND TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND LOW CEILING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. STILL SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUBJECT TO SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 04-07Z TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MANN/BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1225 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 04-07Z TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 915 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

SHORT TERM CONCERNS STILL REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FIRST...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FAST ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A WARM FRONT ARCING SE INTO MICHIGAN FROM ROUGHLY NORTH OF
MUSKEGEON TO LAPEER AND THEN SOUTH TO AROUND MONROE. THE
NORTH/EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS BEING HINDERED BY FLOW OFF
THE COOLER LAKES. TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME CUMULUS
IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOWER IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SO FAR IT IS SHALLOW. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
MEAGER BUT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. SOME MODEST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AS WE GET LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KT IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP...BUT THE LACK OF CLEAR FORCING
MECHANISMS AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 00Z.

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....MANN/BT
UPDATE.......MANN
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

331 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SPRAWLING MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOUT THIS
AXIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AGAIN THIS MORNING AND TO SOME EXTENT
THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.

THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAN BE BEST SEEN IN THE 290-295K THETA LAYER
WITH BEST ZONE OF PRESSURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH RISING THETA
SURFACES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. ALREADY STRATUS STREAMERS
HAVE DEVLOPED FROM KMCB-K1R7. HRRR AND SREF DATA INDICATING
STRATUS/FOG AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT...LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOOKS TO BECOME SITUATED OVER SOUTH MS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SERVE TO CHANGE OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. ONLY THE EXTREME SW SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT TO SEE SOME
STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AT THE GFS MOS ENSEMBLE...STANDARD DEVIATIONS NEAR ZERO ARE
NOT OFFERING MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTH
MS...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
FOR CONTINUED LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND MAX TEMPS TO BEGIN INCHING UP
A LITTLE EACH DAY AS MOS IS INDICATING./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY ~5F
DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY STARTING NEXT MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
REGION.

OVERALL CONUS PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF OVER THE
DESERT SW AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE SE WITH A SHARP S/WV TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MID ATLANTIC
TROUGH WILL ACT TO BRING A NW/SE ORIENTED WEAK DENSITY/CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ACROSS N/NE MS INTO AL OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS
LOW-LVL FOCUS AND SOME HINT OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE BACKSIDE
NW FLOW...PWATS OF 1.2-1.3"...HIGH LCL INVERTED "V" SOUNDINGS...AND
MASS FIELDS SUGGESTIVE OF LIMITED CONVECTION IF ANY...HAVE KEPT WEATHER
WORDING OUT OF GRIDS THIS PACKAGE. A ROGUE SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE NE CORNER THOUGH AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS.

FOR MON-WED NEXT WEEK...OPS GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE
MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...
RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUES INTO WED WITH GREATER COVERAGE WED AFTN.

FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS...MEX LOWS WERE RAISED 1-4F NEXT WEEK TO ALIGN TOWARDS
RAW EC/GFS DEWPOINTS. MEX POPS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TUES-WED./ALLEN/

.AVIATION...STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FOR KJAN/KHKS/KMEI/KHBG. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL./26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 89 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 87 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 88 62 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 87 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 88 65 89 65 / 0 0 2 2
GREENWOOD 88 63 89 62 / 0 0 2 2

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1256 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH THE OCCASIONAL STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SAND HILLS REGION OF WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOTED FROM REGIONAL RADARS OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. IF A STORM WERE TO
PASS OVER A TERMINAL...THEN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE
HOWEVER THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT IMPACT EITHER KVTN OR KLBF.
OTHERWISE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
ATTM CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAF
FORECAST.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

321 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM YESTERDAY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH...WITH THE ENTIRE
CWA SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING. RUC13 925-850MB RH WHICH
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUDS DOES NOT REALLY SEE MUCH DECREASE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN LATE IN THE DAY AND
TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO THE 60S.

TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
DEW POINTS WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SOME SUN
WILL HELP TEMPS GET TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO CANADA...AND MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATION OF SOME FAIRLY
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
MOST OF PRECIP TO OUR WEST AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SOME CONVECTION CLIPPING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT KICKS IN. INCLUDED
POPS BEYOND THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BUT KEPT THEM PRETTY LOW FOR NOW.
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED OVER
THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
DECREASING STABILITY AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOK FOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND DELAYED CLEARING UNTIL LATE AFTN FOR ND
SITES AND EARLY AFTN FOR MN SITES TOMORROW. LOWEST CIGS WILL BE
OVER NWRN MN AT TVF...WITH IFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING...AND
DROPPING INTO LOWER MVFR RANGE AT BJI BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS FROM THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE AREA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT...FROM WEST TO EAST...BY MID MORNING AND THE CLEAR LINE
WILL WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING BJI BY
ABOUT 21Z.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

REMOVED POPS FOR FAR NORTHEAST AND INCREASED SKY COVER IN LINE
WITH RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014