Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/19/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

810 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DOMINATED BY RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRECEDED BY
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A WEAK
IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EASTERN TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
MONDAY. THIS MOMENTUM WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DOWN
OUT OF GEORGIA TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND QUICKLY WASH OUT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. YET ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GET DOWN QUITE AS COOL AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT STILL EXPECTING NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST TO REACH THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...OVERALL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TO START OUT THE NEW WORK
WEEK. PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW-SCT CUMULUS
FIELD WORKING EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALMOST ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER RAIN-FREE DAY. ONLY PLACE THAT
COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD BE UP
TOWARD LEVY COUNTY WHERE THE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE FOCUS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CELLS. ANY SHOWER OR STORM UP TOWARD LEVY WOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE.
INHERITED FORECAST HAS A 20% OF A SHOWER UP OVER LEVY COUNTY...AND
BASED ON THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE LOCAL HIRES WRFARW
GUIDANCE...FEEL THIS CHANCE OF RAIN IS WARRANTED. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE A PLEASANT MONDAY!

.MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT EAST
OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES. NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY
KEEPING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING PINNED NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL INTO THE 50S EACH AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO
AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY THEN BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND WEST NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE NEAR THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MIDWEEK AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST TO WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO SEE ANYTHING MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS EACH DAY WHICH
IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR MAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. EVENING EASTERLY SURGES WILL RESULT IN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
THRESHOLDS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW. CRITICAL OR
NEAR CRITICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS (AROUND OR BELOW 35 PERCENT) AND
WINDS (AROUND OR GREATER THAN 15 MPH) COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

FOR POTENTIAL TONIGHT...NO FOG IS EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 88 69 87 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 64 88 66 87 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 64 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 56 88 61 87 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 70 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

742 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS. THE
MODELS SHOW LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTING EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR DISPLAYS SPOTTY LINGERING RAIN EXITING
THE EAST PART AROUND 200 AM. H85 WESTERLY FLOW HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE. BELIEVE RAIN WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON TAP BEFORE THE WARM UP REALLY BEGINS. THE MAIN
UPPER WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WHILE THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER OFF THE
COAST. EXPECT TO HAVE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH IT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL...WITH READINGS AROUND 50
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS KEEPS THE REGION
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK. IT WILL ALSO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH 80S EXPECTED TUESDAY...AND THEN 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

A WEAK FRONT OR UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO MAY AFFECT OUR REGION BY
NEST WEEKEND...AND MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE APPEARING LOW.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITING THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CAE/CUB AREAS. SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES RETURNING TO VFR BY
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITHOUT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

252 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

AFTER THE INCREDIBLY LATE TASTE OF WINTER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ALONG WITH A
NICE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CONCERNS AFTER A WEEK AND A HALF OR SO OF ACTIVE WEATHER...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL MINOR CONCERN IS WHICH DAYS ARE MOST FAVORED FOR
LAKE COOLING.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

W/V IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NOAM. AGAIN SOME INCREDIBLY COLD 500 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ON
THE 00Z RAOBS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH -29C AT H5 AT KGRB AND
KILN AND -2C AT DVN AT H85. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST AND PATCHY GROUND FOG. THE
VERY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF FAIRLY HIGH-BASED STRATOCUMULUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
AVAILABLE CAPE DUE TO STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT LARGE T/TD
SPREADS AND OVERALL FORCING BEING FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA
THROW SOME DOUBT IN MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHRA COVERAGE FROM BKN
STRATOCU DECK. THUS LOWERED POPS SOME INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
WEAK WAA ALOFT DURING AFTN SUPPORTS HIGHS MOST AREAS REACHING NEAR
OR AROUND 60 DEGREES BASED ON 850/925 MB CLIMO. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE INTO CHICAGO AND PARTS OF NW IN SHORE DURING
AFTN AND KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER THERE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SETTLING OVER EASTERN OH
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WEAK GRADIENT WILL PREVENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS FROM INCREASING AND KEEPING TEMPS WARMER.

SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHER
THAN SOME CIRRUS AND FAIR WEATHER CU...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 60S. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR DRY AIR MASS BEING
CONDUCIVE TO MAXIMIZE HEATING BY SUN AS WELL AS CLOSER TO 925 MB
CLIMO. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE COULD PUSH ONTO PORTION OF SHORE BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DUE TO MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES. A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT ACTUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES TO AROUND 70/LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE IL LAKEFRONT
BASICALLY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND NORTH WHICH WILL BE KEPT COOLER
IN THE LOWER 60S BY PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING MONDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOSE OF
THE JET AND BEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF CWA...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM EML BEING ADVECTED OVER REGION...SO MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

850/925 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR INTO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS
ON TUESDAY...SO MANY AREAS HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO REACH OR EXCEED 80
BY A FEW DEGREES EVEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
FAR NORTHEAST IL COULD STILL BE KEPT COOLER BY SLIGHT SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT TO WIND THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ATMOSPHERE
COULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO CONVECTION UNLESS A MIDLEVEL WAVE
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP. HOWEVER FOR NOW MAINTAINED GUIDANCE
BLEND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL COME
WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING NIGHT. GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ELEVATED FRONT LAGGING EVEN MORE.
THUS THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN HALF TO
THIRD OF CWA DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE IN FAR SOUTH
CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. THIS IS
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT LIKELY TO HAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN CWA.
THE EXCEPTION TO THE WARMTH WILL BE THE LAKEFRONT AS A LAKE BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP EARLY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES
COOLER. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR BUT LIKELY NOT QUITE AS WARM
INLAND. NEXT FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER
WESTERN LAKES...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE INLAND BUT AGAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT LEADING TO VFR BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS DECK. BEST CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
APPEARS TO BE OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CHICAGO TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WHERE VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPER CU FIELD. WHILE A FEW WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL SUGGEST A SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE...
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 250-290 DEGREES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 13-16 KT
OR SO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST WIND. BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP LAKE BREEZE EAST OF
ORD/MDW.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...EAST FLOW POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY...EAST FLOW POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...EAST FLOW.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...EAST FLOW.

MTF

.MARINE...
212 AM CDT

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY WHICH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NAMELY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OR SO. DID END UP
INCREASING SPEEDS/GUSTS A FEW KNOTS BASED ON THIS. THE LOW
BASICALLY WASHES OUT THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE
LOOKS TO HOLD ITS OWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SPELL CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN THE PLAINS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES ON LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A COOL FRONT PASSAGE NEAR THAT TIME...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WOULD LOOK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAVE CONDITIONS FOR THE INDIANA AND POSSIBLY ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE AREAS.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Warming trend slated for the first part of the new work week with
shower and thunderstorm chances increasing on Wednesday and Thu as
a frontal boundary settles south into our area.

Large cold upper low that has been with us for several days is
finally moving away from our area over the next 24 to 36 hours
bringing a rather quiet weather scene to the region through Tuesday.
Models are in good agreement with respect to the placement of the
surface ridge over the Midwest into early next week bringing
pleasantly mild days and comfortably cool nights. Speaking of cool
nights, it looks like another one tonight as winds become nearly
calm under a mostly clear sky, leading to chilly early morning
lows, although not as cool as early this morning. Will go at or a
few degrees below guidance tonight. The high will shift well to
our east by late Sunday into Monday allowing a return southerly
flow to develop across our west Monday.

A shortwave trof and attendant cold front will track east and
southeast across the upper Midwest on Tuesday with strong low level
warm advection in advance of the system which will help push afternoon
temperatures above normal for a change. Main question will be coverage
of warm advection/nocturnal convection Monday night into Tuesday
morning ahead of the upper wave. Forecast models suggest the higher
POPs will remain just to our north where the more favorable low-mid
level flow and instability will be co-located with low chance POPs
slipping south into our far northern areas Tuesday night as the
frontal boundary edges south into north-central Illinois.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

As the upper trof amplifies somewhat over the eastern Great Lakes late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, our POPs will start to increase from
north to south. Models indicating the surface front will shift south
of the Ohio Valley by Friday morning as surface high pressure over
southern Canada builds south into the Great Lakes. At the same time,
an upper low over the southwest U.S. is expected to track slowly
east with several shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow ahead
of the upper wave. These low amplitude waves will interact with the
stalled frontal boundary to our south late Friday into the holiday
weekend setting up what to looks to be an unsettled weather pattern
over the Midwest. Above normal temperatures to start the period off
with will transition into normal or slightly below normal levels
towards the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially late Friday night through Saturday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014
Extensive cu field out there this morning and although the upper
low should move more to the east, cu rule still placing some cu
over Central Illinois tomorrow. High pressure ridge is weak and
keeping the cu scattered. Model soundings have moisture at about
5kft. Cu and Altocu in the short term should clear up after
sunset as winds become variable and light. Tomorrow morning the
winds will pick up an increasingly southerly component. VFR
throughout.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Warming trend slated for the first part of the new work week with
shower and thunderstorm chances increasing on Wednesday and Thu as
a frontal boundary settles south into our area.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Smith
&&

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Warming trend slated for the first part of the new work week with
shower and thunderstorm chances increasing on Wednesday and Thu as
a frontal boundary settles south into our area.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Smith
&&

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Warming trend slated for the first part of the new work week with
shower and thunderstorm chances increasing on Wednesday and Thu as
a frontal boundary settles south into our area.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Smith
&&

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014
A little bit of a cyclonic turn to the winds still as the upper
trof slowly moves out of the Midwest. But between that and plenty
of moisture at llvls, cu field filling in on sat imagery this
morning. Some of those cu starting to get a bit heavy and showing
up on radar. There is a moderate amount of dry air to help cut
down overall precip accumulations, but activity is likely to be
very isolated anyway. Have expanded the iso mention, but no large
scale updates are anticipated at this time.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

Upper low that has plagued the Great Lakes/Midwest for the past
several days will begin to lose its influence on the weather
today as it slowly lifts northeastward into Canada. Still plenty
of cold air aloft and weak cyclonic flow, so am expecting a robust
diurnal CU field and perhaps a few showers. HRRR is most
aggressive with developing precip furthest west into central
Illinois, while the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all tend to limit QPF to just
the far NE KILX CWA. Will follow the consensus here, keeping low
chance POPs for showers confined mainly along and northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line in closer proximity to exiting upper
low. Given rising heights and increased sunshine, temps will be
quite a bit warmer than yesterday, with NAM forecast soundings
suggesting highs in the lower 60s.

After a clear/chilly night tonight with lows in the upper 30s and
lower 40s, ample sunshine will boost highs well into the 60s on
Sunday. Warming trend will continue into Monday, as upper wave
digs southward west of the Rockies, producing downstream ridging
across the central and eastern CONUS. As surface high pressure
shifts off to the east and low-level flow becomes more southerly,
high temps will return to near normal for this time of year in the
lower to middle 70s by Monday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

A warmer and more unsettled pattern will develop in the extended.
A piece of energy from the western CONUS upper low will eject
eastward along the US/Canadian border, gradually flattening the
ridge across the Midwest. This will push a weak cold front
southward into central Illinois by the middle of next week. Model
solutions still vary on how far south this front will drop, but
with both the GFS and ECMWF advertising a strong 598dm 500mb high
developing along the Gulf Coast, do not think boundary will make
it too far south. As such, expect front to sag southward into
central Illinois on Wednesday, then become nearly stationary
through the end of the week. Given high heights and southerly
flow, high temperatures will reach the 80s on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, then will settle back into the 70s for Thursday and
Friday as the front tends to sink a bit further south toward the
Ohio River. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in
the vicinity of the boundary beginning on Wednesday and persisting
through at least Thursday night. Latest runs of both the GFS and
ECMWF would suggest precip chances may need to be extended into
next weekend as front makes little or no southward progress.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1101 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WHILE THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO SOME OF THE AREA
AIRPORTS YESTERDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT THE BLOSSOMING OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AS MIXING ENSUES AND SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM REACHING MOST OF THE
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE GARY WHERE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH THAT IF ANY -SHRA OCCURS AT THE AIRFIELD IT WILL BE BRIEF.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MTF

.MARINE...
212 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1048 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

Residual moisture from the rain last evening and heavy dew/patchy
frost was creating shallow ground fog in spots early this morning,
especially at KPIA where the visibility has varied between 1/2 and
10 SM. Will go with MIFG at KPIA until 14z before plenty of sun will
eventually warm up the ground and help dissipate the fog. KCMI
could be similar, although it appears that MVFR visibility will
prevail there.

From mid-morning and beyond, the moisture profiles on the RAP and
the cloud base forecasts on the HRRR indicate the development of
additional high based CU around 5-7 kft ahead of another in a
series of shortwave troughs rotating toward the base of the upper
trough axis in Indiana.

There could be just enough instability for a few showers to
develop in east central IL, but the coverage and probability of
occurrence precludes a mention of VCSH in the TAFs for KBMI and
KCMI.

High pressure and rapidly increasing stability this evening will
give us a clear sky and very light wind from just before sunset
through daybreak Sunday.

Miller
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

904 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH THAT IF ANY -SHRA OCCURS AT THE AIRFIELD IT WILL BE BRIEF.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MTF

.MARINE...
212 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
640 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

There could be just enough instability for a few showers to
develop in east central IL, but the coverage and probability of
occurrence precludes a mention of VCSH in the TAFs for KBMI and
KCMI.

High pressure and rapidly increasing stability this evening will
give us a clear sky and very light wind from just before sunset
through daybreak Sunday.

Miller
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040>042-047>051.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

332 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN INTO TODAY. THIS
LIKELY WILL SUPPORT BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOWARD 10 KT. GARY
MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVE.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH THAT IF ANY -SHRA OCCURS AT THE AIRFIELD IT WILL BE BRIEF.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OR TWO OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE PERIOD.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
212 AM CDT

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY WHICH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NAMELY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OR SO. DID END UP
INCREASING SPEEDS/GUSTS A FEW KNOTS BASED ON THIS. THE LOW
BASICALLY WASHES OUT THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE
LOOKS TO HOLD ITS OWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SPELL CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN THE PLAINS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES ON LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A COOL FRONT PASSAGE NEAR THAT
TIME...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD LOOK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAVE CONDITIONS FOR THE INDIANA AND
POSSIBLY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AREAS.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT Sat May 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014

VFR cigs prevail across most of central Illinois late this
evening, but the skies are tending to scatter out not too far
upstream. This clearing may combine with the light winds tonight
to allow fog to develop (which it very recently has at KPIA).
Model guidance does not really hit the fog potential at all, but
seeing as KPIA wend from 10SM to 1 3/4SM very rapidly, fog appears
to be a major concern anywhere clearing lasts for any significant
period of time. SC/CU should re-fire Saturday with diurnal heating,
but cigs only appear likely at KCMI and possibly KBMI & KDEC which
remain closer to the departing cold pool aloft. Expect winds to
remain rather light through the 06Z TAF valid period.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040>042-047>051.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

632 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough from the Hudson bay
down along the mid Atlantic seaboard with a shortwave over the mid MS
river valley. A closed low was spinning off the Pacific northwest
coast causing a low amplitude ridge to propagate east across the
Rockies and into the plains. Surface obs show a trough of low
pressure in the lee of the Rockies deepening with higher dewpoints
across the southern plains poised to move north.

For tonight and Monday, models continue to show a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up as the low level jet increases. While
low level moisture is likely to increase with the southerly winds,
models continue to show a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) advecting
in from the southwest. This dry and warm air (700MB temps around
+12C) is expected to form a capping inversion by Monday and the
latest RAP and NAM solutions have this warm air moving in as soon as
this evening. So am still not that optimistic on precip chances
overnight as the low level jet advects dryer air northeast. The RAP
and HRRR have started to show convection coming off the higher
terrain out west, but it falls apart as it runs into the EML. The
GFS is the only solution with any meaningful QPF and the forecast
soundings do not really support elevated convection as it too
advects in the EML and no real instability above the inversion.
There may be an isolated shower along the leading edge of the EML as
decent isentropic upglide provides some lift, so have continued with
some slight chance POPs for the early morning hours. By late in the
morning, the EML should be over much of the area with no real large
scale forcing to break the cap. Therefore expect Monday to remain
dry for the most part. Think the main sensible weather overnight
will be some low stratus advecting north with the moisture return.
The increasing pressure gradient should keep the boundary layer
mixed overnight so fog development appears to have a low probability
of occurring. The breezy winds and increasing low level moisture
should keep lows in the upper 50s to around 60 tonight. Good warm air
advection and afternoon sunshine should help push highs into the mid
80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

Medium and longer range periods looking similar to other recent
model runs. Elevated mixed layer should remain in control and keep
convection in check into the mid week periods despite a modest cold
front sinking south. Location of the low level thermal axis is
somewhat in question, but will likely poke most strongly northeast
into southwestern portions of the area Tuesday and back off the to
the southwest Wednesday with low level flow more backed, with highs
into the 90s along it. As the surface high works its way east toward
the Great Lakes, low level moisture will pool along the boundary and
low level jet pick up in intensity Wednesday night. This presents
the first notable chance for precipitation mainly in northern
Kansas. Northwest flow over the eastern CONUS brings the surface
high southeast and with help of convection, helps bring the old
front farther south into Kansas. The EML should weaken and moisten
as models are fairly consistent with precipitation becoming more
widespread in the southern High Plains and local mid level parcels
being sourced from this area. The boundary`s presence and much more
limited convective inhibition will keep precipitation chances
through much of the late week and into the weekend with temperatures
modifying back toward normal. Boundary could be rather weak to
non-existent by the weekend but models are fairly consistent with
the southwest cut-off low topping the Rockies by this time. The
Wednesday night storms could present the highest severe weather
potential when shear profiles are at least moderate, but weakening
flow should keep anything more than pulse severe storms in check for
the bulk the forecast with areas of heavier rains possible from
slow-moving convection in an atmosphere with above normal
precipitable water.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours. Low level
moisture return overnight still appears to try and advance northward
therefore have kept the mention of MVFR cigs. There is still
uncertainty as the RAP continues not to saturate these levels.
With a strong low level jet the boundary layer should remain mixed
enough to prevent IFR conditions, but it can not be ruled out.
There is still an outside chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm around sunrise as the high res models continue to
advertised this possibility even with the development of a strong
capping inversion.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

115 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST VALID FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOMERSET REPORTED SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN
THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IN THE
EXTREME NORTH AS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN FAR NORTHERN KY...SE
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
ANALYSIS AND TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KY. THERE HAS BEEN 0.01 INCH AT THE TODD COUNTY
MESONET SITE THIS MORNING...SO VERY LOW END MEASURABLE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY JUST FLEMING COUNTY. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER OH INTO FAR NORTHERN
KY...AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALREADY ON RADAR OVER SOUTHERN OH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY CLIP OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHER UPDATED ELEMENTS INCLUDED SKY COVER...AS
THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LONGER IN THE SOUTH...AND MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE THE MOST
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THICKER MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS EDGED A BIT MORE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHIELD SHOULD BURN OFF SOMEWHAT LATER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POISED ACROSS NM/TX...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH NOSING IN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SEPARATING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS SPIRALING ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 36 TO 41 DEGREES...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON SATELLITE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY EASING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW FILLS AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS. THIS WAVE IS MUCH TAMER COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. FURTHER NORTH...EXPECTING MAINLY JUST
A GOOD CUMULUS FIELD TO BUILD IN...WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A GOOD
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL IN CHECK. FURTHER NORTH THERE WILL BE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST...AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS ONCE AGAIN...WITH MORE SUSTAINED
CLEARING TAKING PLACE. FOG WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN AS WELL.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

OVERALL MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING PATTERN
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY AND TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE FROST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND OTHER TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING. WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MONDAY WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARM UP IN
THE EXTENDED...AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MIDWEEK ON. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK FURTHER
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS OF 5K TO 7K
FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OVC CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTH...AND BKN CEILINGS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE OH RIVER AND WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TN.
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH FOG
FORMATION ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIMITED TO RIVER AND CREEK VALLEYS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH/AR
AVIATION...SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE...BESIDES A FEW
STAY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER DURING
THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TOWARDS
DUSK. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL ENGAGE DURING DAY...BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS SUNSET.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH/AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1150 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL
SIT OFFSHORE AND SPIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK THEN SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1150 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT SCT VERY LGT SHWRS
FURTHER S AND W THAN FCST. MADE SOME ADJ TO CLOUD FCST AS WELL. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

840 PM...STILL DEALING WITH SHRA IN FROM THE KENNEBEC VLY EWD AND
THE MID COAST. WILL KEEP POPS LKLY-CAT HERE THRU THE EVENING THEN
BACK OFF TO CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
SHRA WILL WIND DOWN...BUT MOST OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST A SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AS MID LVL
FORCING WEAKENS. THE HRRR IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BASED ON RADAR...IT LOOKS DRY
AIR TO THE WEST IS UNDERCUTTING THE SHRA AS THEY MOVE W OUT OF
KENNEBEC/LINCOLN CTYS. ULTIMATELY...FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER THIS EVE...AND FORECAST CHANGES
JUST FINE TUNE THE HIGHER POPS THRU ABOUT 06Z.

515 PM...500 MB LOW SLOWLY DROPPING SE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEEPENING THIS EVE. THIS IS ALSO ALLOWING WEAK SFC LOW PRES TO
SLIDE BACK NW FROM THE GULF OF ME. ALL THIS COMBINES WITH STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY THAT CROSSES N-S ACROSS CENTRAL ME...HAS PRODUCED
SOME LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE WITH A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE
KENNEBEC VLY...WITH SOME SHRA EAST OF THERE...AND THEN A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA OR SPKLS TO THE WEST. THIS BAND AND SHRA TO THE E
WILL LKLY PERSIST INTO THIS EVE...AS THIS IS BEING FORCED BY
CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL ACTUALLY PEAK 00-02Z BEFORE WEAKENING. ANY
SHRA TO THE WEST LOOK TO BE MORE DRIVEN BY HEATING AND SHOULD WIND
DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SHRA IN THE
E AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT WEAKENING OF
THE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CAUSE THEM TO BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD. STILL AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS
ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW OUT OFF THE NORTHWEST WILL CREATE DIABATIC
WARMING. LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE
MORNING...AS WE HEAT UP IT SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 7 - 7.5 C/KM
RANGE...SO IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE WITH THESE DECENT LAPSE RATES
THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET...SMALL HAIL WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AGAIN TOMORROW AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE SUN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE E ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THUS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DECREASES
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRY WX AND LESS OF A CHC OF ANY SHRA ON TUESDAY
THOUGH STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE E TUESDAY NGT. ON
WEDNESDAY THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROFS TO SLIDE TO THE SE INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS FORMS A SFC LOW
THAT TRACKS TO OUR S AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO UNSETTLE WX AND A CHC OF SHRA`S DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY THEN
CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT AND AGAIN INSTABILITY SHRA`S THAT WILL HAVE
A BETTER CHC TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AFTER
MORNING HEATING OF THE SFC.

THIS UPPER LVL SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
CONT TO KEEP COLD AIR ALOFT AND ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TO SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVES EVEN FURTHER TO THE E ON SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH BRINGING NICE WX.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
1150 PM UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL ME...KRKD/KAUG. OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR TOMORROW...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND LOOK FOR LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VIS IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TUESDAY...ISOLD TO SCT
MAINLY AFTERNOON -SHRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BETTER CHC OF SHRA WITH MVFR OR MAYBE EVEN IFR
POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON -SHRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD AS WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW KEEPS
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CONDITIONS EXISTING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS FUELS CONTINUE TO GREEN UP.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

928 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
928 PM UPDATE...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED SFC TROUGH. THE
RADAR HAS FILLED IN QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THERE ARE SOME HEAVIER
RETURNS...AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE PICKED UP A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE 6 PM. WILL PUSH THE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE BOUNDARY THAT IS GENERALLY QUASI
STATIONARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING
TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE BLOCKING HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. THE WSR-88D
INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS FROM PORTIONS OF NE AROOSTOOK TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PENOBSCOT TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TODAY AND THIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED INTO MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START THIS PERIOD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. FOR TUESDAY...THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE GONE AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO N DURING THE DAY. THIS MEANS COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TRANSITORY SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO END THE LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVELS PERSIST. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SPUR ANOTHER ROUND OF A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROCEED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THURSDAY ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF
HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR NORTH OF KHUL WILL DETERIORATE
TO SOLID MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOWER STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR MON PM.

SHORT TERM: MOIST LOW LEVELS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONDITIONS VARYING FROM PREVAILING IFR OR MVFR AT NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOONS IN
LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 4 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF AS OF 9 PM...AND IS MOSTLY
THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE VSBY WILL BE REDUCED
TO 1/2 NM OR LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN FOG.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CLIMATE...
FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS
BROKEN AT CARIBOU. THE LOW YESTERDAY OF 55 DEGREES WAS THE WARMEST
LOW TEMP EVER OBSERVED ON MAY 17TH. THE OLD RECORD OF 54F WAS SET
IN 1989.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/MCW
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

846 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
840 PM...STILL DEALING WITH SHRA IN FROM THE KENNEBEC VLY EWD AND
THE MID COAST. WILL KEEP POPS LKLY-CAT HERE THRU THE EVENING THEN
BACK OFF TO CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
SHRA WILL WIND DOWN...BUT MOST OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST A SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AS MID LVL
FORCING WEAKENS. THE HRRR IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BASED ON RADAR...IT LOOKS DRY
AIR TO THE WEST IS UNDERCUTTING THE SHRA AS THEY MOVE W OUT OF
KENNEBEC/LINCOLN CTYS. ULTIMATELY...FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER THIS EVE...AND FORECAST CHANGES
JUST FINE TUNE THE HIGHER POPS THRU ABOUT 06Z.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
840 PM...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER
TO SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL ME...KRKD/KAUG. KRKD LOOKS STUCK WITH
IFR OR LOWER STRATUS THRU THE NIGHT...AND SOME OCCNL VISBY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA. KAUG REMAINS STUCK IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
WILL LKLY DROP TO MVFR CIGS...AND MAYBE VIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR TOMORROW...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOOK FOR LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VIS
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD AS WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW KEEPS
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL EXIST TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FIRE DANGER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FUELS CONTINUE TO
GREEN UP.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1241 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY IN EASTERN MAINE. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE 2...WILL ADJUST POPS, SKY COVER, AND TEMPS AS CLEARING
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RAIN IS GOING TO EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE SWIFT RIVER WHICH IS CRESTING NOW AND THE PEMI
AT WOODSTOCK AND PLYMOUTH.

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATE FORECAST POPS AND TEMPS. PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CLOUDS CLEARING ALSO IN SW NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT
WOODSTOCK.

PREV DISC...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND RACE INTO MAINE OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LARGER BAND OF CONVECTION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE PORTLAND AREA BY AROUND 09Z AND CLEARING
THIS SAME REGION AROUND 14Z PER LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTS.

THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN DURING THE EARL TO MID
MORNING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO
CLEARING WILL BE CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE
LATER TODAY.

USED BLEND OF MESO MODEL DATA FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLEARING CONTINUES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE MOST CLOUDINESS HANGING TOUGH IN THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
WHERE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY LIMITED DYNAMICS OVER EASTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW DIURNAL SCT
SHWRS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN AS HEATING OCCURS. A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY LATE TUE AND WED BUT STILL WITH A
CHC OF SHWRS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTBLTY WILL ONCE AGAIN GET CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST LATER
IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MORE INSTBLTY SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEAS.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN AND WETTING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS MOIST.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.

$$
TFH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

936 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATE FORECAST POPS AND TEMPS. PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CLOUDS CLEARING ALSO IN SW NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT
WOODSTOCK.

USED BLEND OF MESO MODEL DATA FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW DIURNAL SCT
SHWRS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN AS HEATING OCCURS. A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY LATE TUE AND WED BUT STILL WITH A
CHC OF SHWRS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTBLTY WILL ONCE AGAIN GET CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST LATER
IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MORE INSTBLTY SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEAS.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN AND WETTING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS MOIST.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.

$$
TFH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

651 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.
RIVERS ARE RESPONDING...ESPECIALLY THE SWIFT RIVER IN MAINE AND
PRECIP BROKE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WITH STRONG UPSLOPE
SIGNATURES THE PAST FEW HOURS.

HYDRO...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN AND A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY.

USED BLEND OF MESO MODEL DATA FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING CONTINUES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE MOST CLOUDINESS HANGING TOUGH IN THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
WHERE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY LIMITED DYNAMICS OVER EASTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW DIURNAL SCT
SHWRS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN AS HEATING OCCURS. A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY LATE TUE AND WED BUT STILL WITH A
CHC OF SHWRS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INSTBLTY WILL ONCE AGAIN GET CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST LATER
IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MORE INSTBLTY SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEAS.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN AND WETTING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS MOIST.

.COASTAL SPLASH-OVER...
WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF SWELLS CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE COAST FLOOD
NOMOGRAM IS SHOWING SPLASH-OVER FOR SACO AND POSSIBLY OTHER
COMMUNITIES IN COASTAL YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE VERY HIGH AS WELL...WITH 11.1 FEET EXPECTED IN
PORTLAND HARBOR.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

148 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND RACE INTO MAINE OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LARGER BAND OF CONVECTION WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
PORTLAND AREA BY AROUND 09Z AND CLEARING THIS SAME REGION AROUND
14Z PER LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTS.

USED BLEND OF MESO MODEL DATA FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLEARING CONTINUES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE MOST CLOUDINESS HANGING TOUGH IN THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OTHERWISE...DESPITE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
WHERE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY LIMITED DYNAMICS OVER EASTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEAS.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN AND WETTING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS MOIST.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

135 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING AND CALM
WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID 30S IN THIS
AREA AND FROST MAY FORM IN THESE CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING FROM THE TN VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES WV
AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. A CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES AND MIXING TO 80-75MB IS EXPECTED. NAM
AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE ABOUT 30-50 J/KG BELOW THE CAPPING
INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS NRN
MD..NOVA AND THE BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO SPRINKLES AND VIRGA TO OCCUR HENCE KEEPING THE FCST DRY
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY
AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO A LIGHT GRADIENT WIND AND A POSSIBLE BKN STRATOCU
DECK ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BKN CU DECK SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN
SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN
MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN MARYLAND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND...CLOSER TO CLIMO.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WHILE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION IN BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY. A BKN CU DECK IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS
AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
SANDY POINT. THE PRESSURE SURGE IS WEAK AND IS ONLY EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND THEREFORE SCA IS NOT IN EFFECT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK PRESSURE SURGE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
WATER FLOWS INTO THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY POINTS ALONG THE
SHENANDOAH...RAPPAHANNOCK... RAPIDAN AND POTOMAC...AND OTHER
TRIBUTARY RIVER BASINS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE POTOMAC
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON DC AND
ALEXANDRIA ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. FRESHWATER FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE POTOMAC RIVER. THIS WILL CAUSE
MODERATE FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA...AND GEORGETOWN. MODERATE FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT GEORGETOWN AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WBCCFWLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL
MARINE...BJL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1006 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TODAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY. A BKN CU DECK IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS
AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
WATER FLOWS INTO THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WBCCFWLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL
MARINE...BJL
HYDROLOGY...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

924 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

No forecast update needed as going trends still looking quite good,
with latest RUC and HRRR data still hinting at a slight chance of elevated
convection late tonight and early Monday morning over northwest
sections of the CWA. Believe current activity along I-35 N of Des
Moines will try to develop SE and may clip our extreme northern
counties, but think the "main" threat for our area will be
developing late tonight near the IA-MO border.

Truett

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

1025mb high pressure off to our east continues to dominate our
region with light E-SE winds and a dry atmospheric column.

It is expected to be clear for most areas thru much of tonight, and
with light SE winds, will allow for another night of below average
temps, but warmer than previous nights, with mins from the mid 40s
in IL to the low 50s in MO. Clouds will move in from central MO
just after midnight towards the MS river by sunrise, and with a
substantial increase in moisture and aided by the eastern extremity
of a low level jet, there remains a window of opportunity for SHRA
or TSRA development in parts of northeast MO for late tonight.
Extended the slight chance PoP into late tonight from where it
previously was for just Monday morning.

TES/Carney

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

(Monday - Wednesday)

Warm temperatures make a return with passage of a warm front on
Monday and peaking by Wednesday, just before a cold front drops into
the area.

Models build an upper level ridge into the lower-mid MS valley
during this period. The brief window of opportunity for SHRA and
TSRA development from late tonight will carryover until late Monday
morning over the northeast quarter of MO and west-central IL until a
strong capping inversion moves in and effectively shuts off any pcpn
potential. This capping inversion is then expected to be
sufficiently strong enough, in what is also a warm sector setup,
largely absent of any boundaries or triggers, until a cold front can
begin to make an approach to northern MO and central IL later on
Tuesday night, or more likely, Wednesday. Just have sub-climo
slight chances going for the northern CWA Tuesday night, and then up
them to chance category for roughly the same area on Wednesday.

Temps are still expected to surge to well above average values by
mid-week for most areas, with maxes of 75 to 80 on Monday and
mid-upper 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The better rain chances will be associated with the slowly dropping
cold front beginning late Tuesday night over northern MO/central IL
and continuing thru Friday as this front eventually makes it to
southern MO/IL by Thursday night-Friday.

(Wednesday Night - Next Sunday)

Plenty of rain chances this period with temps moderating closer back
to normal for late May.

The cold front will slowly make its way south thru our region, not
expected to fully exit southeast MO and southern IL until early
Friday. A greatly weakened capping inversion, upper-level
disturbances rolling on by, and the presence of the surface front
will enable a persistent chance for SHRA/TSRA at least thru Friday
for most areas. Into next weekend, it looks more hazy, but it
appears the front is still going to try to buckle northward and/or
dissipate, and may prolong the rain chances, especially for
central-southeast MO. Nevertheless, the PoPs forecast are at or
below climatology, which is 30% for this time of year.

Max temps expected to slip back into the 70s for late week and into
next weekend, depending on how long it takes for the front to either
move back north or dissipate. The powerful storm system still looks
trapped in the southwestern USA thru next weekend.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 510 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

Sely surface wind will continue tonight with surface ridge
centered over the Ohio Valley region. The surface wind will become
relatively strong and gusty late Monday morning and afternoon due
to a tightening surface pressure gradient as low pressure develops
over the central Plains. Mid-high level cloudiness will spread
eastward into the area later this evening and overnight as low-mid
level warm air advection increases over the region. Could not
rule out isolated, elevated convection near UIN and possibly also
near COU towards morning, but will leave the tafs dry for now as
the probability for showers remains quite low. Scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds will likely develop late Monday morning and
afternoon as low level moisture increases over the area with a
subtle warm front lifting north-northeastward through our region.

Specifics for KSTL: Sely surface wind will continue tonight, then
increase to around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts late Monday morning
and afternoon. Just high level clouds this evening, then mid level
clouds will spread into STL towards morning. Scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds is expected for late Monday morning and afternoon.
Much of the low-mid level clouds will dissipate or advect northeast
of STL Monday evening with only some high level clouds remaining.

GKS

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

840 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUE TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF MISSOURI AND EAST OF THE
MUSSELSHELL RIVER. THE FOCUS OF THE UPDATE WAS TO REALLY RAMP DOWN
POPS BEHIND THE TWO PRECIP AREAS EVIDENT ON RADAR...WHICH
BASICALLY ENTAILS PHILLIPS PETROLEUM AND VALLEY COUNTIES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH EVERY
PASSING HOUR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LARGELY BE PLAYED OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION.
GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS WORKING OUT AS PLANNED. HRRR MODEL
SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN A QUASI-LINEAR FASHION AND TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
IS FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT YESTERDAY/S MODELS DEPICTED. OUTFLOW
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL SEEM TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 6 HOUR QPF BULLS EYES NEAR AN
INCH FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN GOING. DO NOT
EXPECT FLASH FLOODING BUT IT WILL BE A SLOPPY MESS IN MOST AREAS
COME MONDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH ALL BUT THE NE ZONES DRY MONDAY
MORNING.

ON MONDAY...NAM/GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM BECOMING STACKED OVER S
SASK. CLEARING MAY MAKE IT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT
PROXIMITY TO STORM WILL KEEP NORTHERN ZONES CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE WINDY TOO...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOSED SYSTEM GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TFJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US
MOST OF THE WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE
ZONAL THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. FORRESTER

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE KSDY
AND KGDV TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. STORMS MAY BRING TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY AND VARIABLE
WINDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS
AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING AND A PASSING
SHOWER STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
WEST WINDS ON MONDAY MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MALIAWCO

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ARRIVING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY THE AXIS OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT VERY
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ON ITS EASTERN FLANK MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NY.
THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE SOME LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MOISTURE. MORE IMPORTANT TO SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH VERY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY CUMULUS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
DRIVEN BY CHANNELING OF WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS
TYPICALLY SETS UP FROM JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO AND NIAGARA COUNTY
EAST TO NEAR ROCHESTER. WITH RADAR SHOWING A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND THE HRRR BRINGING THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...FEEL
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH
850M TEMPS AROUND -2C ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND BUT ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING FROM THE FINGER LAKES
WESTWARD WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT YIELDING SOME SUPPORT TO
THE FADING DIURNAL PROCESSES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
EVENING...BUT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND RH PLOTS SUGGEST A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PATCHES OF ENHANCED RH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY AND ALSO INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FROST. THE GFS...CANADIAN GEM...AND NAM ALL SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL RH REMAINING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH MID 30S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HAVE LEFT FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF
MORE CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...FROST WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT DRY WX FOR THE BULK OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION
W/IT`S COLD POOL (H85 TEMPS NEAR 0C)WHICH WILL INDUCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW`LY FLOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SRN
TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE W/COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS HIGH WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LEFTOVER DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE ALONG WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SRN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUD FREE W/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALL
OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE EAST ALLOWING A WK
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW`LY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING A SLGT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT W/DRY WX AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. AGAIN THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SRN TIER WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S
W/SOME PATCHY FROST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY DRY WX
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLE WX TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STARTING LATE TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE COOLER WX BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LIFT BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM KIAG TO KROC LATER IN THE DAY.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP TODAY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOWER ON LAKE
ERIE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

UPDATE TO ADD LOW POPS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND NORTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED IN TOWNER COUNTY. THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/BRIEF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO ADD A LOW AFTERNOON POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE. OTHER THAN A SMALL PATCH OF LINGERING LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS NEAR WILLISTON...EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR CAPTURES THIS WELL...AND SHOWS THE FOG LIFTING QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT-
BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MID LEVEL PVA FROM EASTERN MONTANA
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST.

WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING TO OUR SOUTH. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN SD BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS MY AREA THROUGH TODAY.

WHILE SOME MODELS TRY TO GENERATE QPF TODAY...HR MODELS SUCH AS
THE NESTED NAM AND RAP KEEP THINGS DRY. WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN
PLACE...LACK OF GOOD MID LEVEL ENERGY...AND THE UPPER JET PUSHING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION SO WILL
REMAIN DRY. ALSO...CLOUD DECKS NEAR 8-10K FT AGL SHOULD PREVENT
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EVEN IF A
MID LEVEL SHOWER DEVELOPS THIS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

SUNDAY SHOULD START DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA / WYOMING. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE INITIAL
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN MONTANA AND WYOMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
FEATURE....BUT THE CHANCES SPREAD EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHES 40-45 KTS...SO THINK AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AND INCLUDED THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THIS ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPC DAY 2 COMBINED
SEVERE OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
THE MODELS ARE FAVORING LESS NEW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONFINE THE BEST CHANCES TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODIC WAVES
MOVING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE APPROPRIATE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF ANY IMPACTS AT A PARTICULAR
AERODROME ARE LOW...AND HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

956 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

LOW STRATUS/FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT AT KISN THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

620 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT VISIBILITIES AT KISN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

310 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OVERALL WINDS LIGHT TO VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO GENERATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EAST.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST...AND
ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

WHILE SOME MODELS GENERATE QPF TODAY...HR MODELS SUCH AS THE
NESTED NAM AND RAP KEEP THINGS DRY. HARD TO DISAGREE AS THE SAME
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THAT ARE GENERATING QPF FOR SATURDAY ARE
ALSO SAYING THERE SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES
RIGHT NOW (THERE IS NOT). THUS REMOVED ALL WEATHER MENTION FOR
SATURDAY WITH NO CLEAR SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE...LACK OF GOOD MID
LEVEL ENERGY...AND THE UPPER JET PUSHING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD
DECKS NEAR 8-10K FT AGL SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EVEN IF A MID LEVEL SHOWER
DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. PER
COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...DID NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL TONIGHT. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 20S THIS EVENING...THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND
RESIDENCE TIME IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 33 AND 36 WILL BE BRIEF.
DID MAINTAIN THE PATCHY FROST MENTION AND INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE PATCHY FROST MENTION FURTHER WEST INTO
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WILL MONITOR HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES FALL NEARING TO
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SHOULD A FROST ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE RAIN
CHANCES/COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY...AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NEAR TIOGA...AND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL OVER
PARTS OF HETTINGER/GRANT COUNTIES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE MOST FAVORABLE COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA...WHERE PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. WILL MENTION FROST IN FORECAST GRIDS...BUT HOLD OFF
ISSUING HEADLINES DUE TO THE RATHER LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

MUCH OF EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER WEAK RIDGING OR
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WITH A 5% SEVERE RISK SUNDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW REACHES CENTRAL ND BY 12Z MON. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
GFS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 40KTS. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM .25
INCHES MOST AREAS TO AROUND .50 INCHES WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING AS REGION SITS UNDER WEAK RIDGE. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...NH
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1041 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES ATTM.

630 PM UPDATE...

BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST
NIGHT...ELECTED TO UPGRADE RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS TO A FREEZE
WARNING. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND LAMP TAKE EKN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S WHICH WOULD CORRELATE A BIT LOWER IN COLD SPOTS OF E RANDOLPH
COUNTY...IE GLADY. HIGHER RIDGETOPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN H85 TEMPS VS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
BELIEVE A COUNTY WIDE AVG CAN BE ACHIEVED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT PATCHY FROST IN AREAS NOT IN
FROST ADVISORY...IE TRI STATE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TRANQUIL WX IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND IS
ESSENTIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES BY 09Z-12Z
MON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERNIGHT MINS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT FROST
HIGHLIGHTS...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS. VARIOUS NEAR
AND SHORT TERM NWP WIDE APART ON OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...WHICH LIKELY
STEM FROM EXACTLY HOW LOW DEWPTS DROP TODAY WITH MIXING. AT
15Z...HSP CURRENTLY REPORTING A 28F TD. LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR
OUTPUT...AMONG OTHERS...SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WAY DOWN IN THE MID 20S
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING ALL NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S.
NON-CONVECTIVE NWP RUN THE GAMUT IN BETWEEN...KEEPING DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 30S...AND SOME A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT. PLAN ON
WATCHING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL ON COVERAGE
OF TONIGHT/S FROST ADVISORY...BUT RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE PROBABLY
REMAINING CLOSE TO SOME FORM OF CONSMOS WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS POINT WITH TD/S RECOVERING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE LOWLANDS...AFTER AFTERNOON TD/S THIS AFTERNOON
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S. FROST DOES APPEAR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT
VERSUS LAST NIGHT...AND DO ANTICIPATE A FROST ADVISORY NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.

MONDAY...VERY NICE AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. LATEST NAM12 IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY AREA...BUT THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY
WEAK AND WILL TREAT THIS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RAISE OF SILENT POPS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WIND TURNS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT
TO BRING CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.

ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO MOVE EAST
UNDER ALMOST ZONAL FLOW BY MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY. IF FACT...IT COULD BE QUITE UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR UP TO 40
KNOTS MAINLY NORTH...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OH...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SREF
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR 80 DEGREES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. EVEN WARMER A AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT UNDER WARM ADVECTION.

USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ALL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIODS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING DRY AND FRESHER AIR TO SET IN FROM THE WEST. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO
WV THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CALM FLOW.

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING GIVES WAY TO IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FG BY
09Z...AFFECTING MOST OF THE TERMINALS SAVE KCKB/KBKW. MORNING
RIVER FG WILL QUICKLY SCT OUT BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AMID FEW TO SCT 5
TO 6 THSD FT DIURNAL CU. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND COVERAGE TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE MON 05/19/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-024>040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-085-086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1029 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID
WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM...CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS DEWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THE LWR-MID 50S...WHILE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL...WITH THE
NAM...RAP..NARRE ALL SHOWING GOOD POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. I
CONSIDERED ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE WITH THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL JUST A BIT TOO LOW...AS SOME
STRATOCUMULUS LINGER. THE NAM STILL SHOWS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE 925-850 MB FLOW...AND THE 18Z GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY. SO THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...I
HAVE BUMPED UP WORDING TO AREAS OF FOG IN THESE MENTIONED
AREAS...AND MENTION DENSE FOG IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

AS OF 730 PM...FOR THE 2330 UTC UPDATE...ALL MENTIONABLE POPS WERE
REMOVED...AS RADAR SHOWS RAIN HAS ENDED. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY/WIND/WX FOR THE 00Z TAFS. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT SKIES
ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY RIGHT BEFORE
NIGHTFALL. THE LATEST DEWPTS ARE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ACRS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT LOWER IN THE NE CORNER
IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING A BIT
FOGGIER. I/LL AWAIT TRENDS INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND SOME MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN AND DO ANOTHER UPDATE ON FOG
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW FOR ANY
KIND OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

AS OF 430 PM...FOR THE 2030 UTC UPDATE...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO WORK ACRS THE GA AND SC PIEDMONTS...WHILE SKIES CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS NC. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO
TEMPS/DEWPTS/SKY TO LINE UP WITH OBS/SAT. POPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 215 PM...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION IS THAT THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...
THINNING OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS IS REVEALING
A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WE HAVE
THEREFORE RETAINED SMALL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NC MTNS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIP SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A MEMORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.

WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRYING...THE MAJOR SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE A BIT AT ODDS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM RETAINS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND TURNS WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
COULD RESULT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.
THIS IS LIKELY WHY NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM FOR TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND EVEN MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT AS
MOIST AND UPSLOPEY...SO WE HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO COOL MAV GUIDANCE...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DEPENDING
UPON HOW LOWER CLOUDS EVOLVE (IF AT ALL)...FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESP IN MTN VALLEYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY ON MONDAY...WHILE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE PROGRESSING EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO
SURGE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL REMAIN PREVALENT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL PASS ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN POTENTIAL CIN
EROSION AND CORRESPONDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. THEREFORE....FCST NOW FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THESE POPS WILL TAPER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND THE WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE AREA.

ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE AND ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING PROFILES
TO DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL WORK TO STRENGTHEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE ZONES DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CAP EROSION. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INTRUDING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CA

AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WED
EVENING WITH A WARM 500MB RIDGE WITH ITS 539 DEM CENTER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND A CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVING SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ALSO AT THAT TIME...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND VIRGINIAS DROPPING SOUTH WITH HIGHEST CAPES OVER KY
MOVING TO TN. LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA WILL BE WEST WED NIGHT
AND NW THURSDAY AND NIGHT AROUND THE STACKED HIGH CENTER. THIS FLOW
FROM THE NW WILL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE ON THURSDAY WARMING FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT AT LEAST TO AROUND 90. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER MTNS AS MINIMAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CAPES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EAST
OF MTNS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE A SMALL MCS MOVING SE
FROM TN INTO THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE IT COMING SE
OUT OF MTNS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SURVIVING AS IT CROSSES FROM THE MTNS TO NE GA AND THE
UPSTATE. COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT FROM N AND
NE. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER OHIO RIVER EARLY SATURDAY AND
CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AT 00Z MONDAY.

THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON THURS AND FRI IN THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST...ALONG THE SLOWLY PASSING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THEN DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...FEW-SCT VFR LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON LLVLS DRYING OUT ENUF TO
PRECLUDE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...SO I AM
GOING WITH A VFR FCST. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL GO CALM OR LGT/VRB THIS
EVENING...THEN COMMENCE OUT OF THE NE LATE MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TO SE BY EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...A BIT OF A COMPLEX FCST FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...AS
LOW CLOUDS LINGERED LATE INTO THE DAY...AND SOME RAIN FELL ACRS THE
UPSTATE EARLIER. GUIDANCE IS STILL MIXED ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH
RESTRICTIONS THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE. SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW LLVL WIND...BUT ARE
MORE STUBBORN NEAR KAND. BASED ON THE CURRENT DEWPT AND SKY TRENDS
AND THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT UPS METHOD...I OPTED TO GO A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KHKY. THE NAM IS STILL A
BULLISH OUTLIER IN WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE SW AND CENTRAL NC MTN VLYS
AND MOST OF THE UPSTATE. THE LATEST LAMP AND RAP ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO BITE ON THE NAM JUST YET. SO
WILL HAVE JUST MVFR VSBY AT KGSP/KAND...AND IFR VSBY AT KAVL.
CONDITIONS SHUD RAPIDLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING WITH NE WINDS
SHIFTING TO S/SE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN UNDER GENERALLY FEW TO SCT VFR
CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 87% MED 69% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

751 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...FOR THE 2330 UTC UPDATE...ALL MENTIONABLE POPS WERE
REMOVED...AS RADAR SHOWS RAIN HAS ENDED. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY/WIND/WX FOR THE 00Z TAFS. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT SKIES
ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY RIGHT BEFORE
NIGHTFALL. THE LATEST DEWPTS ARE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ACRS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT LOWER IN THE NE CORNER
IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT. OVERALL...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING A BIT
FOGGIER. I/LL AWAIT TRENDS INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTTIME HOURS
AND SOME MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN AND DO ANOTHER UPDATE ON FOG
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW FOR ANY
KIND OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CA

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...FEW-SCT VFR LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON LLVLS DRYING OUT ENUF TO
PRECLUDE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...SO I AM
GOING WITH A VFR FCST. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL GO CALM OR LGT/VRB THIS
EVENING...THEN COMMENCE OUT OF THE NE LATE MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TO SE BY EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 94% MED 62% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to break down through tonight, while
low pressure migrates Inland for Sunday and early next week.
The weather will remain unsettled from this evening through the
first part of next week, with showers and a threat of
thunderstorms accompanying cooler temperatures. The shower threat
wanes and temperatures moderate towards the middle of next week.

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and tomorrow...A large area of low pressure continues to
influence the forecast area into tomorrow. Shortwave disturbance
rotating along the edges of this large upper level low have the
capability to eject northward in a negative tilt and utilize the
cool conditionally unstable airmass contained in the low to kick
off showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two primarily in the
afternoon and evening hours. Overnight hours could see a shower or
two if a strong enough shortwaves passes through but the most
current HRRR models are not too keen on it happening in any big
way. Otherwise as the center of the low drifts closer to the
region forecast temperatures will continue do show a slight
cooling trend which is most apparent in the forecast high
temperatures. /Pelatti

Sunday Nt through Tuesday: Sunday Nt and Monday will be similar
synoptic-wise as Ern Wa and N Idaho remain under a
shearing/weakening upper trough axis with tough to nail down
nearly mesoscale vort maxes embedded within the trough. This
regime still leads to a chance of showers and isolated
thunder...especially each afternoon. For Monday Nt and Tuesday...
short-wave ridging/rising heights aloft begin a stabilizing trend
across the zones near the Canadian border of Wa. However...most
guidance is also bringing a weak vort max south through the Idaho
Panhandle Monday Nt and Tues. Because of this, we continued the
threat of showers into Tues for all but the Upper Columbia Basin.
The CAPE/deep lyr shear profiles don`t look sufficient to produce
strong thunderstorms in this mostly diurnally-driven convection
pattern. bz

Tuesday night through Saturday...A westerly zonal flow pattern
will dominate the middle to end of the week. A flat ridge
Wednesday and Thursday should result in dry conditions except for
a slight chance of a few lingering showers over the Idaho
Panhandle mountains on Wednesday. For Friday and Saturday there is
good model agreement of a short wave tracking through the region
on Friday followed by possibly another one for Saturday. However
precise strength of these features are in question with not a lot
of model consistency. The ECMWF has been the stronger solution
over the past couple runs which would support higher
precipitation chances while the GFS would favor a chance for
mainly mountain showers. Given the uncertainty forecast favors
climatological chances for rain showers (ie 15-30% for most
areas). JW

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Low pressure moving in from off the coast will continue
to influence the aviation area by streaming in not only middle
and high clouds but also advecting in some lower level moisture
and keeping the atmosphere somewhat unstable to allow for
convective showers and thunderstorms during late morning and into
the early evening. Regardless VFR conditions should prevail except
for perhaps brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities near and below
the more intense showers and thunderstorms. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 64 43 64 43 70 / 20 50 50 50 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 43 63 40 63 40 69 / 20 60 60 50 30 20
Pullman 43 62 41 64 40 67 / 20 60 50 40 20 20
Lewiston 48 68 46 71 44 72 / 20 50 40 30 20 20
Colville 42 68 41 67 41 76 / 40 60 60 50 30 20
Sandpoint 41 62 41 62 38 69 / 30 50 60 60 40 20
Kellogg 42 61 41 62 41 68 / 30 60 60 50 40 20
Moses Lake 46 72 46 72 46 77 / 10 20 20 30 10 0
Wenatchee 50 71 48 71 50 77 / 10 20 20 20 10 0
Omak 43 70 42 70 42 77 / 30 30 30 20 10 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

213 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A ITS CENTER WEST OF 130W. ONE WEAK
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WE ARE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH THAT MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE 65 TO 70 RANGE TODAY INLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT RIGHT NOW THE MOST ARE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WILL MONITOR ANY CHANCES OF SEEING THUNDER LATER TODAY
OR THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

THE NEXT DECENT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE HAS CROSSED INSIDE OF 130W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL MORE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A DECENT SLUG
OF QPF. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
COMMA CLOUD BAND AROUND THE LOW CENTER ITSELF THAT IS NOW BETWEEN
130W AND 135W IS FORECAST TO SWING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS
INSIDE 130W AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS ALOFT AT
500 MB FALL TO MINUS 22 TO MINUS 23 DEG C ON SUNDAY...AND THUS
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
ANY THUNDER WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM IT GETS SUNDAY AND HOW SOLID THE
CLOUDS ARE. RIGHT NOW IT MAY BE PRETTY CLOUDY AND IT WILL PROBABLY
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH...BUT WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER.

THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE SUN BREAKS TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE STILL BEING UNDER THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
LOW.

THE LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
WANING...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS INLAND MAY PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER
70S AGAIN.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES DURING THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE CASCADES WILL SEE
SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA ON TUE...AND WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE U.S. SOUTHWEST BY TUE NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PAC NW FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
THU. THIS SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
ON WED AND THU. IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL TRY TO SWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE REGION FRI
AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE
FROM THESE WAVES. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE
12Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE MORE OR LESS IN PLACE AND KEEPS THINGS MAINLY
DRY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
FRI AND SAT. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AROUND 5000-6000 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS SW
WASHINGTON/N OREGON COAST WHERE FLOW IS MORE ONSHORE AND LOWER CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN TONIGHT AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER 05Z AT THE COAST...AND 08Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS FRONT PROGRESSES. A MIX OF HIGH-END IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT SUN...WHILE MVFR/VFR
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUN WITH RAIN CONTINUING AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUN. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND 08Z SUN AS FRONT ARRIVES. RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH SUN BUT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR TO LOWER VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT E
TODAY. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE S
AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...AND BE LOCATED
OFFSHORE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER BY LATE SUN NIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. GUSTY S WINDS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SUN EVENING AS THE LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRES REBUILDS
OFFSHORE LATER MON...AND N WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK WITH GUSTY
25 KT WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 FT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WIND DOMINATED AND CHOPPY AT TIMES. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to break down through Saturday, while
low pressure migrates Inland for Sunday and early next week.
Disturbances rounding the low will bring shower and thunderstorm
chances to northern Washington and the Northern Panhandle of Idaho
through Saturday. The weather will remain unsettled through the
first part of next week, with showers and a threat of
thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures. The shower threat wanes
and temperatures moderate towards the middle of next week.

.DISCUSSION...

Updates this morning have included some updating of the hydrologic
products in effect for the area this morning. Additionally some
cloud and pop grid updates have taken places as well. Forecast
temperatures seem reasonable but may make a tweak to them here and
there but nothing that would make too big of an impact. HRRR runs
over the past few hours continue to suggest convection up north
this afternoon sharing some similarity to yesterday but with a bit
more coverage. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 44 64 43 64 45 / 20 20 50 50 50 20
Coeur d`Alene 67 43 63 40 63 42 / 20 20 60 60 50 30
Pullman 66 43 62 41 63 41 / 10 20 60 50 40 20
Lewiston 74 48 68 45 69 47 / 10 20 50 40 30 20
Colville 70 42 68 41 69 43 / 50 40 60 60 50 30
Sandpoint 66 41 62 40 62 39 / 30 30 50 60 60 40
Kellogg 66 42 61 39 62 42 / 20 30 60 60 50 40
Moses Lake 76 46 72 46 73 46 / 10 10 20 20 30 10
Wenatchee 75 50 71 48 71 51 / 10 10 20 20 20 10
Omak 73 43 70 42 71 43 / 30 30 30 30 20 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

930 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE
OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE JUST
VIRGA...BUT SOME OF IT HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND AS A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN. ONE CELL IN
NORTHERN IOWA IS EVEN SHOWN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DESPITE 0-3KM
MUCAPE SHOWING UP AS LESS THAN 100 J/KG ON THE 19.01 RAP ANALYSIS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPDATES WITH BRINGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS IN EARLIER OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO LIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA...BUT THERE IS A STRONG SURGE OF 925-700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...MAXED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 18-06Z MON. SOME SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...AND SOME HELP FROM A 300
MB JET STREAK. DECENT PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCOMPANIES
THE LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET NOSING INTO
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY...ALL HANGING
TO THE WEST VIA THE NAM/GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG
MUCAPE FOR MONDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES MAY
HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHERN WI BY THIS TIME. 0-6KM SHEAR GOOD AT 40+
KTS...BUT WITH LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH...DON/T SEE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY MID WEEK...POINTING TO RIDGING BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NIGHT...EASING OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING
OR EXCEEDING THE LATE MAY NORMALS - LOW 70S. SHOULD BE A RAIN-FREE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MOVING INTO SUNDAY AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH THE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES AND WHEN THEY WILL COME THROUGH. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FASTER PACE THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...SO MAY HAVE
TO GO A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THEM GETTING IN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THOUGH SOME DROPS TO MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING/AFTERNOON WHEN THESE SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY TOMORROW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-25KTS AND GUSTS UP BETWEEN
20-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WAS MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS RIDGING WAS
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE POSITION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
PLACES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RETURNS
NOTED ON RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE
ENHANCE CUMULUS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. SOME OF THESE
LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE SHOULDN/T HAVE FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND FROST WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/BLACK HILLS AREA. PLAN ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 28 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
NORTH F THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...HELPING TO EFFECTIVELY CAP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THE LOW THEN SLIDES OVER
FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO BUILD SOME SURFACE
BASED CAPE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES COULD APPROACH 1300 J/KG. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING BUT THERE ISN/T
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THESE AREAS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING SO THIS MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND ON SATURDAY BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY
AT RST TO AROUND 20KTS. WITH A CU DECK FORMING ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND TRACK EAST INTO THE REGION. EVEN IF A
SHOWER DOES HIT RST OR LSE...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR DUE TO HOW
HIGH BASED THE CLOUDS ARE AT 8-10KFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

318 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAKE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN MN. THE CLOUD
LAYER OVER THE REGION IS THIN PER RAP SOUNDINGS...INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...AND THE AIR BELOW 7000 FEET IS VERY DRY. SCATTERED SPRINKLES
ARE APPARENT ON RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THE MN CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES WILL SWING THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. WITH 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO
THE LOWER 40S AND NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MKX FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ONCE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES AGAIN BUT NOTHING MORE. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND
MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS MONDAY...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING WEAK
UPWARD 700 MB MOTION. THE 700 MB LAYER IS DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE 700 MB LAYER SATURATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LAYER STAYS RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...INCREASING ONLY THE THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN
THOUGH THE 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 35 KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET IS ACROSS MISSOURI TO
MINNESOTA. THERE IS NO ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...BUT THE 12Z NAM
IS DRY...EXCEPT WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE RATHER COOL.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH A MAINLY WEST/SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER JET ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE.

WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AROUND NOON. 700 MB RH IS SATURATED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH 35 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8 TO 10 CELSIUS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT COOL ON TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE SAGS SOUTH ACROSS
ILLINOIS.

THE NAM DOES GENERATE 650 TO 1100 JOULES/KG OF CAPE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES PUSHES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY....WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER REGION. AGAIN EXPECT A SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE
RATHER COOL.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADA BORDER REGION IN THE ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST NORTHWEST BEFORE A
RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER WISCONSIN SATURDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO IT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS.

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH JUST A
HUNDRETH OR SO OF PRECIPITATION ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS AND
06Z DGEX REMAIN DRY WHICH IS PREFERRED.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SITTING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
35 KNOTS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FEET AGL.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

645 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEVERAL VORTICES WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LATEST FOG SATELLITE SHOWING SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. 17.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 800MB-
650MB LAYER PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 18Z
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...925MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 10 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA...AND SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING LOWS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST
AND ANY FROST WOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND REGION
UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70.

FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
MODELS INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS
THIS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. THE
17.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 17.00Z NAM INDICATES 200-400
J/KG 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING NO SURFACE
BASE CAPE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A BROKEN 8
TO 10K DECK OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY 17.15Z.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
EXIT THE THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP KEEP THE 8 TO 10K BROKEN
DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SCATTERS THEM
OUT. WITH THEIR APPEARING TO BE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GFS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

421 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STARTING THE DAY RATHER
CLEAR...COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...ESP OVER THE CATSKILLS AND
BERKSHIRES. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
ISOLATED CELLULAR SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AND
MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROMOTE GOOD MIXING...ALLOWING FOR
A BREEZY AFTN. NW WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY LOOK A TAD HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
ALOFT...WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S....WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER
6OS TO MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

A WARM FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY IF THIS WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA...OR IF IT WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR SOUTH.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN WED AND WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY VARY ON THE EXACT
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF. THE 00Z GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE WETTEST MODEL...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR IDEA...BUT NOT QUITE AS HEAVY. FOR NOW...WE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. INSTABILITY APPEARS
MEAGER...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS ON WED LOOK TO REACH NEAR 70...WITH 50S FOR WED
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN TAFS SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS SO LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PICK AROUND SUNRISE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
18 TO 22 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...ESP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 5
MPH TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES RETURNING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT. RH
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.
THE RIVER STAGE IS CURRENTLY FALLING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

AFTER HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A FEW DAYS AGO...RIVER LEVELS ARE
CONTINUING TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. WHILE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T ANTICIPATED...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047-054-058-063-083-084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

325 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

MAIN STORY FOR THIS MORNING IS THE FOG. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL SUNDAY. VSBYS ARE STILL
BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT DO THINK THAT THEY WILL SETTLE AROUND
1/4 OF A MILE WITHIN MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA BY SUNRISE.
THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...NEAR COLUMBUS...BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NOW.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE CWFA ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
OF ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA...OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. IF THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS NORTH A
BIT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. THE NAM IS DRY AND THE GFS IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLD SHRA.
THE HRRR IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLD SHRA...BUT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PEGGING AN AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE
HRRR. POPS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO
WARM AS THE RIDGING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. BY THURSDAY THOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA HELPS TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HAVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...A DAY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS THIS FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...HAVE
PUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY IS STILL AROUND...HOWEVER IT
WEAKENS. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP WITH THAT WITH POPS
OF ONLY 10 PERCENT.

STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. DO THINK VSBYS WILL BOUNCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AROUND 1/4SM BY 8-10Z AND STAY DOWN
UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE WHEN CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AND LOW
CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE. SCT AFT CU SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SE FLOW
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 56 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
ATLANTA 76 59 82 66 / 10 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 76 58 / 10 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 77 58 83 63 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 81 61 85 67 / 10 10 10 0
GAINESVILLE 74 55 79 64 / 10 10 10 0
MACON 79 58 83 64 / 10 10 10 0
ROME 77 58 84 62 / 10 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 57 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
VIDALIA 79 59 83 65 / 10 10 5 0

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

336 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE LATE
TUESDAY PERIOD WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXISTS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON W/V THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR EAST COAST CAUSING
DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA WAS CAUSING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A NARROW RIBON OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE IMMEDIATE LA AND TX GULF COAST.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS THE IA SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH GROUND OVER CWA DESPITE APPEARANCE ON RADAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ENABLE ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY BUT WARMING LIKELY TO BE
TEMPERED SOME BY CONTINUED INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THUS
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 LOOKS TO DO IT FOR HIGHS...THOUGH WIND
BACKING TO SOUTHEAST ALONG IL SHORE LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS A BIT
COOLER THERE. ANOTHER WAVE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN
TIER. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH RADAR ECHOES LIKELY TO BE PRESENT
ROUGHLY I-80 AND NORTH FOR A TIME BUT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THIS EVENING PLUS MINOR CONVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF JET COULD SUPPORT SOME SHRA BUT PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF CWA AND CHANCE POPS ALONG WI BORDER. WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO AREA...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE DUE TO CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...WITH UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WARM FRONT FROM PLAINS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH AREA BY THE
MORNING AND ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH OF CWA BY
THAT TIME. SOME CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER BUT ASIDE FROM 00Z NAM12
SOLUTION...CAP FROM EML LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG UNTIL LIKELY LATER IN
THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS IN MID TEENS CELSIUS AND H925 APPROACHING 20C
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN LOW-MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE. CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS WITH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
RETURN SHOWN BY MOST GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED DEWPOINTS TOWARD
LOWER MOS BASED GUIDANCE. THUS ONLY EXPECTING MAX DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER MLCAPE VALUES. BDRY
LAYER CONVERGENCE COULD INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTH FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION INITIATION. EVENING
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION (LOW-MID
CHANCE POPS) DUE TO IMPROVING WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CONVERGENCE AS SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT WOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND AND HAIL MAIN
CONCERN DUE TO VERY MEAGER LL SHEAR. SETUP STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FAVOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS AND SEVERE THREAT AS FORCING IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG AND OVERALL INSTABILITY CONCERNS. ANY TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AS CAPE WANES.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH. DIURNAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE AT BEST OF SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT TSRA THREAT FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SHOULD ENABLE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STORMS
TO FORM. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL REGENERATION BE OVER OR SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN CWA. TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BE
BECOMING LESS HUMID AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A VERY WARM DAY AS 850 AND 925 MB TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL
FROM TUESDAY. THUS AROUND 80 OR LOW 80S APPEARS LIKELY. ALSO
THINKING THAT DUE TO DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT LAKE BREEZE FLIP NOT
LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR ILLINOIS AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON ALONG IN SHORE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PARKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES INLAND WARMING FROM SEASONABLE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ALL IN ALL...SIGNS POINT TO A
FANTASTIC MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST
TODAY AND WITH THAT WILL COME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE
SHOULD INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING AND LIKELY BY 16Z-17Z. WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ENVELOPING THE AREA AND DEEPER MIXING...THE WIND DIRECTION IS
FAVORED TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT FOR MUCH
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES ARE
LIKELY BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE DRY ENOUGH FOR MAINLY VIRGA THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RFD IS THE AIRPORT
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED TO SEE SOME OF THIS IN NORTHERN IL. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. LOWER BUT STILL VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000FT ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH THAT WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 160-180 IN DIRECTION FROM 15Z
ONWARD.
* HIGH THAT IF ANY RAIN DOES OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELDS IT WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS OWN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL
INCREASE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. THIS INCLUDES FORECAST FOUR TO
MAYBE EVEN FIVE FOOT WAVES THIS EVE ALONG THE LAKE COUNTY IL
SHORE. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR RIGHT
NOW AS THE CURRENT WIND/WAVE RANGE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
CRITERIA MOST OF THE TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVER THE
OPEN WATER...THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME 25-28 KT GUSTS PROBABLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AS IT
DOES SUCH. THE STRONGER FRONT WILL PASS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

High pressure currently centered over Ohio continues to control
the weather across central Illinois early this morning: however,
WAA cloud cover and even a few light showers are poised just to
the west across Iowa. 07z/2am KDVN radar imagery shows scattered
echoes approaching the Mississippi River, with a few upstream
surface obs reporting sprinkles. This activity is pushing away
from 45-50kt LLJ positioned over the central Plains, so am not
expecting any measurable precip to reach the KILX CWA. Even still,
given upstream radar imagery and the most recent HRRR suggesting a
few showers tracking into north-central Illinois this morning,
have opted to include scattered sprinkles along/north of a
Rushville to Bloomington line. Aside from the sprinkles, skies
will be partly to mostly cloudy today as warm advection regime
overspreads the area. Due to cloud cover and a southeasterly flow,
warming trend will be tempered, with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 70s.

Surface winds will veer to the southwest and skies will become
mostly sunny on Tuesday, allowing high temperatures to soar well
into the 80s. Meanwhile, an upper-level disturbance tracking along
the U.S./Canadian border will begin to flatten the upper ridge
over the Midwest and push a weak cold front southward toward
Illinois. Several models develop scattered convection along the
advancing front across northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon, with
the NAM being furthest south. Airmass within the warm sector will
remain capped on Tuesday, so think storms will be confined
immediately along the boundary and will stay north of the KILX
CWA.

The front will sag southward into central Illinois on Wednesday,
providing the best chance for widespread precipitation during the
entire forecast period. With dewpoints pooling in the middle to
upper 60s near the boundary, surface based CAPES are progged to
exceed 2500J/kg. In addition, decent 0-6km bulk shear values of
40 to 45kt will support the potential for a few strong to severe
storms with large hail and strong winds Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Main question will be areal coverage of storms, as
convergence along the front will not be particularly strong.
Think scattered thunderstorms will develop, so will carry 30-40
POPs across the board accordingly.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Latest model trends continue to push the front south/southwest of
central Illinois by Thursday. WPC progs take the front into the
Deep South by Saturday, but feel this is too far south given
presence of strong upper ridging along the Gulf Coast. Adjusting
the boundary northward would place it from Missouri E/SE into the
Tennessee River Valley from Thursday through Saturday. This
position would keep most of the rain chances out of central
Illinois, except perhaps across the far S/SW CWA in closer
proximity to the front. Further north and east, high pressure will
build into the Great Lakes for the end of the week providing a dry
NE flow and slightly cooler temps in the 70s. Once the high shifts
eastward, whatever remains of the dissipating boundary will return
northward on Sunday. Potentially could see a few showers/storms as
this process occurs, but forcing will be so weak by then that a
POP is not warranted at this time. Instead, will continue with a
dry forecast for Sunday and Monday with high temperatures climbing
back into the 80s.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

VFR conditions expected through 06Z TAF valid time. Southerly flow
will increase, becoming quite gusty at times Monday, as the
pressure gradient increases ahead of a developing low pressure
system in the plains. LLWS may develop after sunset Monday
depending on the degree of surface decoupling that occurs, but
have not included it for now considering its potential arrival
only a couple hours from the end of the period. An upper level
disturbance passing near the area after daybreak Monday will
provide low to mid-level cloud cigs, but no precipitation is
anticipated.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

409 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Updated short term and fire weather sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

The main question today is how far east the dryline will push today.
The latest NAM12 and near-term hourly RAP model are both very
aggressive in pushing the dryline all the way into central and
south-central KS by late afternoon. This would push the 100-degree
isotherm a bit farther northeast than previously forecast. We now
have 100 degree forecast for Dodge City, Kinsley, Greensburg, Pratt
and 102 at Ashland and Coldwater. Dewpoints will crash into the
teens and even single digits (degF) late this afternoon. Winds west
of the dryline will be in the 20 to 25 knot range, but the lack of a
significant height gradient in the 850-700mb layer will preclude the
need for a wind advisory, despite the very deep mixing. The dryline
will retreat back west at sundown with a marked increase in surface
dewpoints back into the low to mid 50s as far west as Highway 283.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front push into west central Kansas late
tonight with a weak surface low pushing into central Kansas by
daybreak Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

During the extended period, an upper level low is progged to spin
around the desert southwest Tuesday through Thursday then slowly
shift eastward across the Four Corners Region Friday into Saturday.
This low then moves into the Central High Plains Sunday into Monday.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will be positioned across the Plains
Tuesday through Friday shifting eastward into the Mississippi Valley
this weekend. Mid levels of the atmosphere increase in moisture
Tuesday afternoon through Friday becoming nearly saturated by this
weekend as the aforementioned upper level low approaches.

Towards the surface, a weak a stationary boundary will bisect the
CWA Tuesday with a dryline positioned south of this feature across
far western Kansas. Southerly winds will be felt ahead of the
dryline and continue to draw more humid air north in the lower
levels. Westerly winds will be observed across far southwestern
Kansas behind the dryline with northerly winds observed north of the
stationary boundary. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely
west of dryline with mostly clear skies anticipated throughout the
day. A slight increase in clouds will be possible across northern
Kansas Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as a weak disturbance
moves through that area. However, no precipitation is expected at
this time. Partly cloudy skies will be observed elsewhere Tuesday
night. Highs Tuesday are forecasted to range from the upper 80s
north of the stationary boundary to upper 90s across the KS/OK
border. Lows Tuesday night are expected to range from the mid 50s
across west central Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas.

The dryline retreats west into eastern Colorado Wednesday with a
surface boundary sliding slightly farther south. A slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible across far western Kansas and north
of this boundary Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise
expected partly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be from an
easterly direction through the day shifting to the southeast
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday are expected to range from the mid
to upper 80s north of the boundary to mid 90s across south central
Kansas.

The better opportunity for widespread thunderstorms will be from
Thursday through Sunday, especially along and north of a surface
boundary that is suggested to extend from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas. Confidence of where exactly this boundary will
be found is not high and tweaks to the forecast will be needed over
the next couple of days. Nevertheless, moist upslope flow will be
present north of this boundary with an 850mb theta-e ridge axis.
Highs Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s with highs in the low
to mid 80s Friday through Sunday. Lows Thursday night through Sunday
night will generally be around 60 degrees.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Flight category of VFR is forecast through tonight amidst a hot
and dry airmass. Winds will remain out of the south and fairly
strong through mid-morning...then shifting to the southwest or
even west-southwest 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. After
sunset, winds will decrease quite a bit but remain out of the south.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Critical fire weather conditions will be widespread across west
central and southwest Kansas as a dryline mixes east. West of the
dryline, dewpoints will fall into upper single digits to mid teens,
and with temperatures rising through the mid to upper 90s, this will
lead to extremely low relative humidity down to as low as 4 to 6
percent for a few hours late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind
speeds will average around 20 knots during the afternoon hours as
well from the west-southwest.

Another critical fire weather day is expected Tuesday, but farther
south most likely into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. For now we
will keep far southwest Kansas out of a Fire Weather Watch as it
appears the frontal boundary will stay far enough south for a long
enough portion of the day Tuesday before it lifts back as a warm
front.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 58 94 60 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 98 56 91 58 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 97 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 100 54 96 58 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 98 59 88 61 / 0 0 10 10
P28 99 66 99 66 / 0 0 10 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

346 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Water vapor imagery early this morning showed the broad mid-level
ridge centered over the central U.S. with several embedded
shortwaves along the northern edge of the ridge axis. One of the
stronger shortwaves was noted across northern Nebraska in which
thunderstorms developed through the overnight hours. Another shortwave
was seen moving across western Kansas, which contributed to a stream
of mid-level clouds spreading eastward into central Kansas. The
low-level jet was ramping up overnight across western and central
Kansas with 850mb winds upwards of 65kts. However, this 850mb jet
was advecting drier air into the region as an elevated mixed layer
was still noted in model soundings. With this EML in place, it will
make it difficult to develop any elevated thunderstorms, despite the
presence of some increasing isentropic lift. Model soundings
continue to show the potential for a stratus deck to develop for a
few hours this morning as a shallow saturation layer develops up to
about 900mb-850mb. Could possibly get a few light showers or
sprinkles to develop from this shallow saturation layer, however the
lift in this layer looks to be pretty weak. As more dry air gets
advected into the region through the morning hours, that will
continue to limit the potential for scattered precipitation
development. A few short-range models show the potential for some
isolated precipitation to develop across far northeast Kansas, so
have kept the mention of just slight chance PoPs in through 14z with
dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day through
tonight. Temperatures this morning were much warmer than the last
few nights as the combination of increasing mid-level cloud cover
and increasing southeasterly surface winds gusting upwards of
20-30mph helped keep temperatures in the 60s.

Model soundings show the cloud cover clearing out late this morning
into this afternoon with breezy southerly winds from the tight
pressure gradient in place over the region. Expect gusts upwards of
25-35mph this afternoon, which will result in decent warm air
advection into the region. Models show a nose of warmer air
stretching from southwest Kansas into north central Kansas this
afternoon, with high temperatures today likely ranging from the
low/mid 80s over eastern Kansas to the upper 80s/low 90s across
north central Kansas. While surface winds should diminish some this
evening, still expect gusts upwards of 15-25mph overnight. With the
continuation of this warm air advection into the evening hours,
expect mild conditions tonight with lows once again in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Tuesday through Wednesday, a short wave trough will move east
along the US/Canada border. A cold front associated with this
trough will stall out across Kansas by Tuesday and appears likely
to remain in the region for several days through the coming
weekend. While there will be a front in the region, and warm temps
along with increasing low level moisture will lend plenty of
instability, it appears that the atmosphere will remain capped to
any convective development through Tuesday and much of Wednesday.
Expect some 90s on Tuesday near and immediately south of the front
with upper 80s elsewhere. Wed morning lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s with upper 80s to around 90 expected again on Wednesday.

By late Wednesday afternoon, we get the first indications that the
cap will weaken with the continued influx of low level moisture
and approach of a weak short wave disturbance. Forecast soundings
suggest moderate to strong instability and 40+ kts of 0-6 km
shear across the forecast area with the surface frontal boundary
located somewhere across the forecast area. Expect isolated to
scattered storms to develop near the front by late afternoon/early
evening. While widespread severe weather does not seem likely, this
setup seems to lend a fair chance for storms to become severe
should they develop, and will need to monitor closely as it`s
plausible that a few well organized supercells could develop.

On Wednesday night, there seems to be a favorable setup for an
organized MCS to develop out of afternoon High Plains convection.
Any MCS would likely track near and just north of the surface
front, likely taking it across some part of the local forecast
area. With instability seemingly still in place and potentially
favorable wind fields aloft, could see an organized damaging wind
threat materialize. Will have to see how the details sort out, but
the potential seems to be there.

Thursday will be another day of thunderstorm chances, with
moderate instability forecast, the surface front remaining
somewhere in Kansas, and deep layer shear slightly weaker but
still possibly supporting storm organization. Wed night storms
will likely play a large role in Thursday`s weather, and thus
confidence in any specific convective outcome is fairly low.

Thursday night through Sunday will remain unsettled with with
gradually increasing deep moisture and continued thunderstorm
chances. Expect instability, as a whole, to decrease slightly into
the weekend while deep layer shear decreases dramatically. So,
while thunderstorms remain in the forecast, the severe weather
potential seems to decrease quite a bit. Should also note that
while there are precip chances every day, do not believe that
every location will see precip every day. The potential is there
at any given time but do not expect long term rain outs.
Temperatures through this period should generally have highs
around 80 with lows in the 60s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next few hours. Low level
moisture return overnight still appears to try and advance
northward therefore have kept the mention of MVFR cigs. With a
strong low level jet the boundary layer should remain mixed enough
to prevent IFR conditions, but it can not be ruled out. There is
still a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm around
sunrise as the high res models continue to advertised this
possibility. Latest RAP soundings do show an area of saturation
and uncapped lift above the EML.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1148 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1248 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS, WINDS, AND TEMPS
ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START THIS PERIOD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. FOR TUESDAY...THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE GONE AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO N DURING THE DAY. THIS MEANS COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TRANSITORY SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO END THE LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVELS PERSIST. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SPUR ANOTHER ROUND OF A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR NORTH OF KHUL WILL DETERIORATE
TO SOLID MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOWER STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR MON PM.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/JORDAN/MCW
MARINE...HASTINGS/JORDAN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

507 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS SUPPORTED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL INTO
ERN ND. SRLY WINDS AND MID CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN AND WRN
WI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

TODAY...EXPECT SLOWLY INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS BUT WITH
STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW AND WAA...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S. HOWEVER...LOWER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PCPN. SO RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MAINLY AFTER 21Z OVER THE WEST THIRD.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED TO MQT-ESC BY 23Z.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN MN INTO NRN
ONTARIO WILL BRING AN 850 MB WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW (PWAT TO 1.25 INCH) ON 40-50 KNOT 850-750 MB WINDS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE. THE PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD FROM THE WEST
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVER THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ONLY SHOW MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG INTO SW UPPER MI...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...TSRA MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR MOST OF
THE CWA EXCEPT THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD..

QPF/TS...PW VALUES AROUND 1.2IN OR AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL
SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI W TO E THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING CWA AVG RAINFALL AROUND OR OVER 0.75IN...WITH MOST OF THAT
FALLING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY. OF COURSE HIGHER AND LOWER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN A TS ENVIRONMENT WHICH WE
WILL BE IN TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER ALL OF UPPER MI BEFORE ENDING W TO E
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BE IF THERE WILL BE ANY MOISTURE
LEFT TO ALLOW FOR TS DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PUSHING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA MID DAY TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE S
40-50KTS 850MB LLJ 12Z-18Z OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.

TEMPS...AT 00Z WEDNESDAY /JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/ FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 10-13C. OF COURSE WITH
SATURATED SOIL SFC TEMPS WILL STAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. 50S AND
60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 70F
NEAR OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

THE SFC RIDGE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE LOW
MOVES JUST E OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AND
ALONG THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING-AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PESKY 500MB LOW
FINALLY EXITS TO E ONTARIO.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE GFS HAS SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR
THIS PERIOD OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT
OF NORMAL OR 0.35IN. ON THE FIRE FRONT...THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH
NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE PRECIP THAT
SHOULD FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TODAY WITH AN INITIALLY DRY S
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN THIS DEPARTING HI
AND A LO PRES MOVING E OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN THE PRESENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...THE WINDS WL TURN GUSTY. THE STRENGTHENING
SSW FLOW WL TAP MORE MSTR TNGT...AND THE ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS
DYNAMIC FORCING WL RESULT IN RA OVERSPREADING UPR MI W-E LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAP PERIOD AT IWD...WHERE THE PCPN WL ARRIVE
EARLIEST. MORE TENACIOUS DRY LLVL AIR WL DELAY THE DETERIORATION AT
CMX/SAW...BUT EVEN THERE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING IN...WILL LIMIT WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE SFC.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1118 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

Truett

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

1025mb high pressure off to our east continues to dominate our
region with light E-SE winds and a dry atmospheric column.

TES/Carney

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

(Monday - Wednesday)

Warm temperatures make a return with passage of a warm front on
Monday and peaking by Wednesday, just before a cold front drops into
the area.

Temps are still expected to surge to well above average values by
mid-week for most areas, with maxes of 75 to 80 on Monday and
mid-upper 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

(Wednesday Night - Next Sunday)

Plenty of rain chances this period with temps moderating closer back
to normal for late May.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014

E-sely surface wind will continue late tonight with surface ridge
centered over the Ohio Valley region. The surface wind will become
relatively strong and gusty late Monday morning and afternoon due
to a tightening surface pressure gradient as low pressure develops
over the central Plains. Mid-high level cloudiness will spread
eastward into the area late tonight as low-mid level warm air
advection increases over the region. It appears that any isolated,
elevated convection will remain north or west of the taf sites
late tonight and Monday morning. Patchy MVFR clouds were
already spreading northward into southwest MO, and cannot rule
out that some of this cloudiness could advect into COU and the
St Louis metro area early Monday morning. Scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds will likely develop late Monday morning and
afternoon as low level moisture increases over the area with a
subtle warm front lifting north-northeastward through our region.
Most of the low-mid level cloudiness should shift northeast of COU
and the St Louis metro area by late Monday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: E-sely surface wind will continue late tonight,
then increase to around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts late Monday
morning and afternoon. Mid-high level clouds will spread eastward
into STL towards morning. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds is
expected for late Monday morning and afternoon. Much of the low-
mid level clouds will dissipate or advect northeast of STL by late
Monday evening with only some high level clouds remaining. The
surface wind should weaken some Monday night and lose much of the
gustiness.

GKS

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

1016 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING...THUS
ONE LAST UPDATE TO KILL THE REMAINING WATCHES. GILCHRIST

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

150 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES ATTM.

630 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TRANQUIL WX IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WIND TURNS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT
TO BRING CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.

USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ALL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. LIFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 09Z TO 13Z...AFFECTING
MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. OTHERWISE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND COVERAGE TONIGHT MAY VARY SLIGHTLY.

DATE MON 05/19/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-024>040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-085-086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

340 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A LOW RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT AREAS OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NC...NE GA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE ALONG AND WEST OF I-26. THIS IS THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAIN SUN MORNING. LATEST MOS AND
NAM/HRRR CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT FOG WILL
REMAIN AND WILL LIKELY THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THICK FOG WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM.

TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT H5...A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MID
TO HIGH LEVEL NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT MTN WAVE CIRRUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES EAST TO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A FEW CAMS INDICATE THAT BRIEF SHRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. I
WILL FEATURE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC RIDGE POPS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR
70 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS.

TONIGHT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT H5...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE OVER EASTERN
KY/TN BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN ADDITION...SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM MON...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW
TUE AND TUE NITE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARE IS KNOCKED DOWN AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS NC. THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MAY BE ENUF TO
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE
ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
SHUD REMAIN CAPPED WITH ANY INSTABILITY WELL ABOVE THE SFC WITH VERY
HIGH LFC HEIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF AVL AND NEAR THE NC/SC/GA
BORDERS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHUD QUICKLY TAPER OFF
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FORCING MOVING
EAST. HIGHS TUE AND LOWS TUE NITE SHUD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WED AND WED NITE AS NWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE WRN GULF
COAST. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FLOW
AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU
THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH THESE FEATURES...INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AS LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE ACTUALLY
INCREASES PUSHING LFC HEIGHTS EVEN HIGHER. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE MTNS
ALONG THE TN BORDER...THE WARM NOSE ERODES ALLOWING LFC HEIGHTS TO
FALL AND INSTABILITY TO APPROACH MODERATE LEVELS. STILL EXPECT
COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE FORCING/INSTABILITY COMBO REMAINS
WEAK. HOWEVER...SHRA COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVES CLOSER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HIGHS WED
RISE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
RISE. LOWS WED NITE WILL RISE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...NWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THRU MUCH OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FLOW BECOMES NLY SUNDAY
AS BOTH FEATURES MOVE EAST. AT THE SFC...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THU...STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRI...THEN MOVES TO NEAR THE GULF COAST SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTNS THU...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REST OF NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WAVE MOVING NEAR THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. CHANCE OF CONVECTION DIMINISHES GREATLY SAT AND SUNDAY AS THE
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THU...FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRI...THEN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SUNDAY. LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THU NITE FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FRI AND SAT NITES.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 530Z...OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING KCLT RANGED FROM IFR TO
VFR...WITH VIS AT THE TERMINAL REMAINING VFR. CLEAR SKY COVER AND
CALM WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE
LATEST MOS INDICATE THAT VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT VERY LOW VALUES OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL DEVELOP OVER KCLT DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF FOG WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 9Z-12Z FOR MVFR FOG. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST AROUND SUNRISE TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING....SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SCT CU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 060 KFT BY 17Z.

ELSEWHERE...MOS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC AND
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS THIS MORNING. I WILL INDICATE THAT CEILINGS
AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG IS FORECAST TO
FALL TO LIFR AT KAND AND KAVL...WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. I WILL INDICATE
A PRE DAWN TEMPO FOR MVFR AT KHKY. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST AROUND SUNRISE TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING....SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SCT CU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 060 KFT BY 17Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 47% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 64% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 59% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

157 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF FOG THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL
BETWEEN 3-6 DEGREES BY SUNRISE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
MTN VALLEYS.

AS OF 1015 PM...CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS DEWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THE LWR-MID 50S...WHILE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL...WITH THE
NAM...RAP..NARRE ALL SHOWING GOOD POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. I
CONSIDERED ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE WITH THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL JUST A BIT TOO LOW...AS SOME
STRATOCUMULUS LINGER. THE NAM STILL SHOWS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE 925-850 MB FLOW...AND THE 18Z GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY. SO THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF CLOUDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...I
HAVE BUMPED UP WORDING TO AREAS OF FOG IN THESE MENTIONED
AREAS...AND MENTION DENSE FOG IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRYING...THE MAJOR SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE A BIT AT ODDS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM RETAINS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND TURNS WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
COULD RESULT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.
THIS IS LIKELY WHY NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM FOR TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND EVEN MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT AS
MOIST AND UPSLOPE...SO WE HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO COOL MAV GUIDANCE...
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DEPENDING
UPON HOW LOWER CLOUDS EVOLVE (IF AT ALL)...FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESP IN MTN VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO
SURGE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL REMAIN PREVALENT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL PASS ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN POTENTIAL CIN
EROSION AND CORRESPONDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. THEREFORE....FCST NOW FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THESE POPS WILL TAPER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND THE WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CA

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 530Z...OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING KCLT RANGED FROM IFR TO
VFR...WITH VIS AT THE TERMINAL REMAINING VFR. CLEAR SKY COVER AND
CALM WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE
LATEST MOS INDICATE THAT VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT VERY LOW VALUES OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL DEVELOP OVER KCLT DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF FOG WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 9Z-12Z FOR MVFR FOG. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST AROUND SUNRISE TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING....SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SCT CU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 060 KFT BY 17Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 58% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 55% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 61% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

332 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOCAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THAT ARE MOVING EAST IN THE INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE
19.05Z HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND
INTO DRIER AIR AND THAT BY 12Z...WHAT REMAINS OF THEM SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALLOWS THE ATTENTION AND RAIN
CHANCES TO BE TIED TO THE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THESE WAVES WILL BE. GOOD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS COME WITH THE WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FIRING
SOME CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE
19.00Z NAM AND GFS INTENSIFY THIS WAVE AS IT COMES EAST...ALMOST
APPEARING AS BOTH MODELS ARE SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
WITH IT. THE 19.00Z ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT SHOW THIS INTENSIFICATION
AND KEEP THE WAVE PRETTY WEAK AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY CAN FORM ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE MORE NORTHERN WAVE BEING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUS AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE TAKING IT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A PERIOD
DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE AREA WILL BE ON
THE EASTERN AND CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH 2 TO 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE LIFT MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 80
PERCENT TAPERING DOWN TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. NOT A WHOLE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TODAY
WITH THE NAM SHOWING AT MOST AROUND 500 J/KG OF MU CAPE ACROSS THE
FAR WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NAM SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 4 UBAR/S ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THIS UP
GLIDE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TAPERING OFF TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD STALL EITHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. GOOD CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SHOWN BY THE NAM ALONG
WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPARK DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
SHOULD BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND ONLY THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS. WITH MOST THE MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO HONOR THIS
WITH SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THOUGH.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A CUT OFF LOW WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT DIFFER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES NORTH OF THE CUT OFF LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS TROUGH BACK ON THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF SHOWING A CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE GFS
BEING DRY. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

AN INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STAYING VFR DUE
TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WITH WHETHER ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM LATER TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THE MAIN PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD THOUGH SOME CHANCES WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD MAINLY BE
VFR THOUGH...WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI ARE BEGINNING TO GO DOWN WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE FROM LA CROSSE AND NORTH.
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK FOR SITES
SOUTH OF LA CROSSE WHERE THE CREST IS JUST NOW ARRIVING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

432 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...HOWEVER MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND ADVECT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH INLAND
ACROSS THE STATE OF NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST GIVEN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH ALL THAT SAID...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO PULL AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
STATES...HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH BUILDING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...PATCHY MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE 18Z HOUR AT MOST TERMINALS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHES OF
STRATUS FORMED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRF INDICATE THAT EXPANSION WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 17Z HOUR...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS INTO
THE 18-19Z HOUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER VERY BREEZY WEST WIND DAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...APPROACH MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW CLOUDS AS
EARLY AS 12Z WITH DISSIPATION AS LATE AS 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. THE
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE DISSIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS BY 19Z AROUND
KMRY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ALL DAY EVENT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MARINE...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND GENERATING STEEP FRESH SWELLS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

359 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN.

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS NOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL MORPH INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE
NORTH COAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
FAVORABLE SW TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WHILE INSTABILITY
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS INCREASES. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SHOWER AND POTENTIAL TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS OVER 400 J/KG
IN TRINITY COUNTY AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER ARE
AROUND 7C/KM. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME HRRR MODELED REFLECTIVITY IS
UNIMPRESSIVE SHOWING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER RETURNS OVER THE EAST
SIDE OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BEST
THERMODYNAMICS AND FORCING SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. AS THE
LOW TRACKS INLAND ON TUESDAY ...WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW PATTERN IS OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST (TYPICALLY NOT A FLOW PATTERN THAT GIVES US
THUNDERSTORMS)...A PRETTY ROBUST VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON COINCIDING
WITH A FAVORABLE JET STREAK POSITION. WITH LI VALUES DOWN TO -3C
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT WAS HARD TO IGNORE...ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. STP/JT

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE
WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS
TUESDAY ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE WATERS.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
PZZ450-455.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY
PZZ470-475.

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

418 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD AS OF 4 AM...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DROPPING
THE UPPER LOW DOWN THE WEST COAST...AND INTO CA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS WAS DRAWING VERY DRY
AIR UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS. W-SW WINDS AT 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH SHOULD FORCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN AND EVE FOR THE SLV AND ALL OF THE E PLAINS...SO THE
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN AN UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...

SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR. UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CA/NV ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHALLOW FRONT WHICH PENETRATES INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING MAJORITY OF THE AREA
DRY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z RUN OF NAM12 SUGGESTED PIKES
PEAK REGION COULD SEE AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM...BUT 06Z
RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HITTING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NO PROBLEM. WINDS
ARE THE BIGGER CHALLENGE AND DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD. AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FOLLOWED BY LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES...SO WILL BE HOISTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THEM
FOR NOW AS FRONT MAY BE LURKING IN THIS AREA.

FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS TOWARDS MORNING. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT
IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...THOUGH DO MIX OUT SOME OF THE DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...COULD SEE CAPE VALUES APPROACH
1000-1500 J/KG. 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH. 0-6KM
SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO IF MOISTURE CAN STAY
IN...THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES...AND THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED BY SPC IN A SLIGHT RISK. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR CLOSELY THIS DAY...BUT
HUNCH IS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT SOME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF TELLER COUNTY WHICH WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS A BIT TOO HIGH BASED.
BUT ONCE AGAIN...POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN EVERYTHING.
MEANWHILE...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.

CLOSED LOW WILL DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM
EASTWARD ACROSS NM OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE EC.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA BURN SCARS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. 0-6 KM SHEARS DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DEW POINT RETURN. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
DETAILS...BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD SEE LESS OF A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -KT

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY W-SW WINDS 25-30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z AND LAST THROUGH 03Z .

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224-230-233-237.

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

620 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SKIES RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO CLEAR FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE
OCCURRING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS UNDER THE PATCHES OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. IN ADDITION...SOME MORE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BY AFTN...ESP OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES...AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. BOTH OUR LOCAL
HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW ISOLATED CELLULAR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOVING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE
LITTLE RAINFALL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.
THE RIVER STAGE IS CURRENTLY FALLING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

722 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO
WARM AS THE RIDGING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. BY THURSDAY THOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA HELPS TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HAVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...A DAY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS THIS FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...HAVE
PUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY IS STILL AROUND...HOWEVER IT
WEAKENS. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP WITH THAT WITH POPS
OF ONLY 10 PERCENT.

STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS TO VFR VALUES.
SCT CU EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN
4-5KFT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SWITCH TO
THE SE BY THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS AND HOW FAST THEY WILL GO TO VFR
VALUES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 56 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
ATLANTA 76 59 82 66 / 10 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 76 58 / 10 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 77 58 83 63 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 81 61 85 67 / 10 10 10 0
GAINESVILLE 74 55 79 64 / 10 10 10 0
MACON 79 58 83 64 / 20 10 10 0
ROME 77 58 84 62 / 10 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 57 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
VIDALIA 79 59 83 65 / 20 10 5 0

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014
Light sprinkles and showers passed over the nrn portion of the
state this morning as a high pressure ridge drifts eastward.
Slightly cooler max temp forecast holding well, and hourly grids
also looking pretty good. Mostly mid level clouds across the area
helping to keep those temps down. Not a lot of change expected for
the forecast and though grids will be freshened up this morning,
an update is mostly unnecessary. Will send updated zones for
morning language closer to noon.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

Isolated light showers will affect the central IL airports except
SPI into mid morning due to warm air advection pattern. Isolated
thunderstorms should stay north of PIA this morning. VFR
conditions still expected to prevail through tonight despite the
isolated showers this morning. Like yesterday morning the patchy
shallow ground fog will stay southeast of I-70 near the Wabash
river until mid morning. Broken to overcast mid level clouds to
affect central IL today with ceilings lowering to 4-7k ft during
this evening. South to southeast winds 5-10 kts early this morning
to increase to 12-18 kts by 15Z/10 am with gusts 22-27 kts from
late this morning into this evening. Have winds veering south at
10-15 kts overnight. 1029 mb high pressure over WV and eastern Ohio
was ridging westward across IN into eastern IL. 999 mb low
pressure over western ND and central SD and eastern CO will push a
frontal boundary se into central KS/IA by 12Z/7 am Tue. Increasing
pressure gradient over central IL today to create the gusty sse
winds. Isolated to scattered convection to stay north of I-80
tonight closer to frontal boundary.

07
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

906 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON W/V THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR EAST COAST CAUSING
DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA WAS CAUSING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE IMMEDIATE LA AND TX GULF COAST.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH. DIURNAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE AT BEST OF SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT TSRA THREAT FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SHOULD ENABLE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO FORM. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL REGENERATION OF CONVECTION
BE OVER OR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR OR EVEN OVER 50 KT...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH SPC HAS INCLUDED IN
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE BECOMING LESS HUMID AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS 850 AND 925 MB
TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL FROM TUESDAY. THUS AROUND 80 OR LOW
80S APPEARS LIKELY. ALSO THINKING THAT DUE TO DECENT WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADIENT LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IF AT ALL FOR ILLINOIS SHORE AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON ALONG INDIANA SHORE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AT TIMES
GUSTING 20-25KT BY MIDDAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 45 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR RFD. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MINIMAL NEW
REGENERATION ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAND BUT THE EASTERN
FLANK CONTINUALLY ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. OVERALL THINK
THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY IS
MINIMAL THOUGH SOME SPRINKLES COULD MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE BUT STEADY GUSTS OVER 20 KT LOOK TO BE DELAYED A BIT LIKELY
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. DO EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING HOWEVER.

MDB

FROM 12Z...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST
TODAY AND WITH THAT WILL COME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE
SHOULD INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
PROBABLE BY 15Z-17Z. HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE SOME FOR WHAT
MAXIMUM GUSTS WOULD BE DUE TO THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORED TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT TODAY AND THIS IS PROMOTING LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 12Z.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR
OVER NORTHEAST IL. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TAF
SITES TODAY...NAMELY RFD...IT WILL BE LIGHT AND VFR. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH AGAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE CLOSE BY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM SUNRISE
TUESDAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COUPLE HOURS AFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.

MTF

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH THAT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 150-170 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

* HIGH THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS TODAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND
TEMPORARY. LOW ON WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG.

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED GUSTY TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY MUCH
OF THIS TIME.

MTF

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
652 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

BARNES

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1017 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Update to synopsis...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

The 19.12Z 250-hPa map showed a 100 kt westerly jet streak located near
KREV. Downstream, 50 kt of flow prevailed across Kansas. At 500-hPa,
a trough was located across the Pacific Northwest/far NE Pacific. Downstream,
ridging prevailed across the Great Plains and into the Midwest. At the
lower levels (H7/H85), warm air advection continued across KDDC with
the EML fully sampled. Ideal downslope southwesterly winds and a temp
at 18C give the clue of a hot day potential across SW Kansas. At the
surface, a low pressure perturbation was located across SE Colorado
with an associated dryline across western Kansas. Another frontal boundary
was located across western Nebraska.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites with only a few
high clouds this morning. Southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots this
morning will shift to the southwest by late morning with gusts
around 30 knots.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

659 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON...AS A LEE SURFACE LOW TRYS TO
DEVELOP OVER SW KS...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. LOOKS LIKE
A BORDER LINE SHOT WHEN IT COMES TO WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY. SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE WARMUP CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL KS AND THE 80S ELSEWHERE AS 850H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS.

TUE-WED: WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ON TUE INTO WED AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SW FLOW PATTERN WITH A VERY WARM AIRMASS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SW KS. AS THIS WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO NRN KS AND BECOME STATIONARY. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND A WELL MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ON TUE. THE
NAM/WRF EVEN SUGGESTS TEMPS POSSIBLY NEAR 100...BUT CONSENSUS
MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST MIDDLE 90S. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
NORTHERN KS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING...BUT CONVERGENCE DOESNT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES CAPPED FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG INTERSTATE
70...ON WED WITH A WARM AIRMASS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SRN KS. THINK
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED...IN THE LOW 90S...AS A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON TUE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER CEN KS. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THINK THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KS FOR WED EVENING AS THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ERODES. SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE GIVEN BULK SHEAR
OF 40-50 KTS AND THE GFS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE CONVECTION INCREASE OVER CENTRAL KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...ALONG THE
ELEVATED 850-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE. POSSIBLY FORMING AN EASTWARD
MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION GET IS THE BIG QUESTION...AS PREVAILING
MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SOME ON THU INTO
FRI...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. THIS WILL PUSH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE KS/NE BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES
NORTH...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH THU AND FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE PLAINS...WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
NORTH INTO PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE THU-SUN CONVECTION
CHANCES...AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK FOR LATE
SPRING...BUT THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO STRONG STORMS AND A
FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX AFTERNOON HEATING.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A MORE PROMISING SHOWER/STORM CHANCE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THAN HAS BEEN WITNESSED THUS FAR THIS SPRING.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING
THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS ALREADY SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS WITH
SPORADIC GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS. NARRE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUST
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 20KTS BUT LESS THAN 40KTS...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE. AXIS OF STRONGER
LOOKS TO BE ALONG RIDGE OF FLINT HILLS...THUS KICT AND KCNU LIKELY
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS. GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AFTER 00 UTC/20...SO TONED WIND AND GUSTS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING.

LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT OF STRATUS THAT IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE
THIS MORNING...ALONG AN AXIS FROM KFSM THROUGH KTUL AND KBVO TO
KEMP. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ORIENTATION OF NARROW
BAND OF MVFR CIGS...WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT KCNU MAY EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 AGL THIS MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 90 65 96 66 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 92 63 95 63 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 89 63 94 65 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 87 64 92 66 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 65 94 68 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 95 58 89 62 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 96 59 90 62 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 91 62 92 65 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 91 61 93 62 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 83 65 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 82 65 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 82 65 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 83 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

617 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

737 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INITIALLY DRY
S WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN THE
PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.
THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TONIGHT
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN RAIN
OVERSPREADING UPPER MI W-E LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

654 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY FILL WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY CO-LOCATED
WITH THE 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE...WHICH REACHES THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. WE THINK THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL COME ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. OUR QPF IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
BUY INTO SOME OF THE NEW 09Z MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF /HOPWRF.INFO/. THEY HAVE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. EVENTUALLY THE THICKNESS RIDGE SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO...AFTER THIS
FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THERE SHOULD BE A LAG IN THE
PRECIP OVER MUCH OF MN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS SECOND ROUND IS MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL AND WE`RE NOT TOTALLY SURE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SET UP. IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED HINGES HEAVILY ON A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL EJECT OUT FROM THAT
LOW...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THINGS
PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE UPCOMING PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE RAIN REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MIXING SHOULD BRING TEMPS NEAR 80F ON
TUESDAY. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THOUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL SPIN OFF OF THIS VORTICITY
MAX...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS VERY LOW...BUT
EVENTUALLY THIS WAVE WILL KICK OUT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE 20POPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL...AND UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO MN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH TIME. OUTSIDE OF KAXN...WHICH WILL
HAVE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR AN ARRIVAL TIME FOR
THUNDER LATE THIS MORNING OR NEAR THE NOON HOUR FOR MOST OTHER
TAF SITES. WE THINK THE STORMS WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE AS THEY
HEAD EAST. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING...MVFR/IFR...BEHIND THE RAIN TODAY.

KMSP...

THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR THUNDER TODAY WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN WESTERN MN...HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AIRPORT. THEY ARE PRODUCING
0.50"-1.5" HAIL THIS MORNING. WE HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A COUPLE PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN NEAR THE
EVENING RUSH. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS. A LOT
OF THE MODELS WE USE ARE SHOWING CEILINGS BELOW 1500FT BY THE
EVENING...BUT THESE CAN OFTEN BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING IN POOR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR. WINDS W 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

517 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS LATE THIS EVENING ARE NOT AS UNIFIED ON
PROGRESSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS EARLIER RUNS INDICATED. HENCE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH AS BEFORE. TRIED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY IN THE
TAFS WITH SHRA/TSRA INTO WESTERN MN IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND
ACROSS EASTERN MN FROM 14Z-18Z. STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS
SOME WHILE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE SLIPPAGE OF CEILINGS BELOW
010. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC NAM IS NOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER IN THE
DAY BEFORE BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CEILINGS TRENDS AS WELL. BREEZY SE WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR
KAXN AND KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

KMSP...A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS INDICATED FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. SE WINDS 16G24KTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...MVFR CIGS SHRA/TSRA ENDING IN THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR.
WINDS W 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

856 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NW CONUS TODAY...WITH INITIAL TROF NOW
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH AND SECONDARY LOW DROPPING ALONG THE OR/CA
COAST. WE ARE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TODAY BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS. TFX RAOB SHOWS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS IN OUR AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
GET GOING FAIRLY EARLY TODAY AND PROBABLY NO LATER THAN NOON. IN
FACT...THERE ARE ALREADY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN NE MUSSELSHELL
COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK JET FORCING. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 5.5KFT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS...BUT
OTHERWISE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO REMOVE MORNING FOG AND LOWER 15-18Z POPS
SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE GUSTY TODAY WITH
MIXING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...WE
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR FOG TO BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND JET MAXES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WORK
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND...OF COURSE...TERRAIN. SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH CAPE VALUES
PROGGED TO BE UPWARDS OF 400 OR 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND LI VALUES OF -1C ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...CERTAINLY WE
COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME WEAK...SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER ACROSS THE
EAST DUE TO SOME CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MIXING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 40S ACROSS THE EAST
TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN...AND FLOW OVER THE BILLINGS
CWA REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONVECTION AS 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7C AND 8C PER KM.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. STC

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED RANGE PROGGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PATTERN. CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LAY UNDER BROAD ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST WE WILL
SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG SE SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTY
ZONES FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS AND EASTWARD. THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AROUND SATURDAY EVENING AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDWEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT...SO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
LIKELY SEE STEADY RISES LATE THIS WEEK. BT

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGER CELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT. JKL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 044/067 046/071 048/080 051/083 052/076 050/073
4/T 23/T 22/T 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T
LVM 062 037/065 039/070 043/081 046/080 045/073 043/073
5/T 35/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 24/T 43/T
HDN 069 042/069 046/074 046/081 050/084 052/079 050/075
4/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
MLS 069 044/069 047/074 049/080 051/085 055/079 052/075
2/T 22/W 12/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
4BQ 069 042/069 046/073 047/081 049/083 052/079 049/073
2/T 22/T 42/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
BHK 068 043/066 045/071 047/077 050/081 053/078 053/074
2/T 12/W 12/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
SHR 065 039/065 044/070 043/078 044/079 049/075 047/071
4/T 33/T 43/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

647 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH BRUNT OF THIS MOVING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LIMITED
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. THUS WITH THE FIRST
EXPECTED ROUND OF RAIN ONLY CARRIED -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH VFR CIGS/
VSBYS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA
OR ISOLATED TSRA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
15-20KT G20-30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.

GRADIENT RELAXES THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DAKOTAS LOW.
INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE MOISTURE IN THE SFC-
850MB LAYER ARRIVES. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
VFR. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE. THUS ONLY CARRIED
VCTS/CB IN THE 04-09Z PERIOD AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WITH THE LIGHTER
GRADIENT AND THE LOW/BROAD SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
RAINS AT SOME POINT TODAY OR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CIGS BY LATE
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 2K-3K FT RANGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....04

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

210 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO EXCEED NORMAL. A HIGH WILL BULGE IN SATURDAY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAY7. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
AND A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
TONIGHT. HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS GUSTS 38KTS BETWEEN
GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. OTHER WEATHER PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT
IS THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL ABOVE 5000 FEET
AND BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY GOES ABOVE 90 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z. HAVE PUSHED CLOUDS WELL INTO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS MOST OF SLO COUNTY WITH THE ADDITION OF DRIZZLE
TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SWING INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN EASTWARD INTO NV THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW DUMBBELLING INTO ANOTHER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE CONTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT IS ALREADY GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SIERRAS. AS THIS SYSTEM ROTATES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASE DUE TO VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRAS AND ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING 33 DEGREE K-INDEX...NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX...AND UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IF CELLS DEVELOP
STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST COULD PUSH ACTIVITY INTO
THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS OR FARTHER SOUTHWARD IF THEY CAN
MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE AZ/MEXICO
BORDER ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND BULK OF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LEFT A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST CA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH 585DM HEIGHTS BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. GFS AND GEM
MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ON MONDAY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND REDUCING TEMPERATURES
OVER CA. HOWEVER...THE ECM CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST AS WARM FOR
MONDAY UNTIL WE CAN GET BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE RIDGE
WILL BREAKDOWN OR NOT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...19/1800Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE THAN
FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
EXTEND WELL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CEILINGS THAT DO FORM WILL
PROBABLY EXIST IN THE MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY DUE TO A VERY DEEP MARINE
LAYER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

KLAX...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

.MARINE...19/300 PM.
THE INNER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL...MAINLY WEST OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND WATERS WEST OF SANTA
CATALINA ISLAND. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN FOR PZ673 AND PZ676 WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PZ645 AND PZ670 FOR WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

201 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE REMOTE
HILLS OF THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:01 PM PDT MONDAY...COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS
NOW LOCATED WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
FIRING OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MOST RECENTLY AS CLOSE AS
COLUSA AND GLENN COUNTIES. FOLLOWING THE RAP MODEL THE UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MAKE A BEELINE FOR THE NORTH BAY LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
T-STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY HILLS...BEST CHANCE OVER
NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTY HILLS.

THE LATEST SOLUTIONS BRING THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME NW ONSHORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON...AGAIN MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/REMOTE AREAS
ROUGHLY RUNNING FROM NAPA COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO THE DIABLO RANGE
AND OVER FAR EASTERN SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL MITIGATE MOST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR MOST FOLKS THE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

BY WEDS THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO NEVADA WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ONLY
REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTEREY COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A NOTED WARMING TREND AS 850 MB TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 21-23 CELSIUS INLAND BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
FOLLOWING A BRIEF PUSH OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BY 00Z TUE. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO
SITES TONIGHT IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME AND IMPROVE IN THE 15-18Z
WINDOW. WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 30
KTS AFTER 22Z. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 06Z AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KTS WESTERLY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT 15-16Z TIME FRAME
TUE AM AND WEST WINDS PERSIST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED IN MONTEREY BAY AREA AND WILL REMAIN WITH A VFR
FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TUE AND FORECAST RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AFTER
THAT. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH END OF PERIOD AT
KMRY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

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SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

150 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

KLAX...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

KBUR...TIMING OF ONSET AND DURATION OF COVERAGE ARE BOTH SUSPECT
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SURPRISES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

.MARINE...19/0900 AM.
SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST. THE INNER WATERS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...MAINLY WEST OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND AND WATERS WEST OF SANTA CATALINA ISLAND. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN FOR PZ673 AND PZ676 WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PZ645 AND PZ670 FOR WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

934 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE REMOTE HILLS OF
THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PDT MONDAY...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST
UPDATES THIS MORNING BUT IN GENERAL NO BIG CHANGE IN THE EVOLUTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORM CHANCES. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY REMAINS WITH INCOMING COLD CORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

SHORT TERM...THERE`S A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE GREATER
BAY AREA AT THIS TIME BUT IN GENERAL SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S. BY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS SOMEWHAT. THERE IS
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON COAST THAT
WILL ROTATE TOWARDS CAPE MENDOCINO AND EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAM/HRRR/RUC GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE T-STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY HILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PASS OVER THE BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT WHEN SOLAR HEATING
IS LOST WHICH SHOULD KEEP NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THE LATEST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST AND HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THAT.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SIERRA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER
INSTABILITY AND SOLAR HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/T-STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HILLS THAT BORDER
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS WELL AS THE LAKE/YOLO COUNTY BORDERS. GIVEN
ALL THIS TALK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...NEED TO STRESS THAT MOST
URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THIS IS THE TYPE
OF EVENT THAT IS FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAN.

SHOULD LIGHTNING OCCUR THE LATEST SHORT TERM FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN
LOWERED DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO NOT
EXPECTING AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR NUMEROUS NEW STARTS SHOULD LIGHTNING
DEVELOP. ALSO EVEN THOUGH QPF NUMBERS LOOK VERY DRY THE CORE OF
ANY CELLS SHOULD HAVE PRECIP.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LEADING TO A NOTED WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND ADVERT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...APPROACH MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW CLOUDS AS
EARLY AS 12Z WITH DISSIPATION AS LATE AS 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1135 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN AN UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY W-SW WINDS 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z. IT WILL BE LESS WINDY AT THE
TAF SITES ON TUESDAY.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224-230-233-237.

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

215 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WEAKENING FRONT NEAR FL/GA BORDER ALONG WITH SEA BREEZES. DRIER
AIR ALOFT KEEPING PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1.0 INCH...ALONG WITH VERY
LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT...LEAD ME TO KEEP POPS LOW. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE FAR SE GA AND ALONG FL/GA BORDER WITH WEAK
FRONT...WHERE ENHANCED CU CURRENTLY DEVELOPING...WENT 30 POP
THERE...20 POP ELSEWHERE ALONG/W OF EAST COAST SEABREEZE. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD CEASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG...BUT KEEPING OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW AS
THERE`S NO GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HRRR LAMP OR MOS...TO SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT FOG. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND...60 TO 65 CLOSER TO COAST AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER.

TUE THROUGH FRI...A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS STACKED
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TUE & WED WITH LIGHT
WINDS LESS A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS INLAND. LATE NIGHT FOG
WILL BE MOST PROBABLY TUE NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS/DEW PTS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

THU & FRI THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
FL AS A TROUGH AXIS CARVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WNW WITH BREEZY WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES OVER SE GA THU & FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE CLIMO VALUES BY THU & FRI WITH HIGHS ABOVE
90 INLAND WITH THE COAST ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S DUE TO
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
INLAND TUE NIGHT...TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY THU NIGHT WITH NEAR
70 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH MON...

MEAN LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPS DOWN THE CONUS ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE NE SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
BACK ABOVE 1.25" SUN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES IN FROM THE NE.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...UPPER FORCING FROM THE MEAN LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHALLOW FORCING FROM THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO
ONLY THE 15-20% RANGE SUN & MON WITH A DIURNAL PATTERN IN
RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
HIGHS NEARING NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S COAST.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. INCLUDED VCTS
KJAX...KVQQ...KCRG...KSSI GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA
ALONG WEAKENING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND
WASHES OUT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...SETTING UP AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS MID WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 58 85 57 90 / 10 10 0 10
SSI 64 78 63 85 / 10 10 0 10
JAX 60 82 59 88 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 66 78 62 83 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 59 85 57 89 / 20 10 0 10
OCF 62 86 58 89 / 10 0 0 0

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/WOLF/WALKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

145 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO
WARM AS THE RIDGING ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY.

NLISTEMAA

STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CEILINGS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY FEW/SCT 4-5KFT. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE 09Z-14Z OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 56 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
ATLANTA 76 59 82 66 / 10 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 50 76 58 / 10 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 77 58 83 63 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 81 61 85 67 / 10 10 10 0
GAINESVILLE 74 55 79 64 / 10 10 10 0
MACON 79 58 83 64 / 20 10 10 0
ROME 77 58 84 62 / 10 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 57 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
VIDALIA 79 59 83 65 / 20 10 5 0

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

150 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS STREAMING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY VARIETY STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
TO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CUTOFF LOW SPINS ALONG THE NV AND UT
BORDER. HOWEVER...EARLY THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND LEAVE SE ID IN A DRIER SPLIT FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT BEST.

VALLE/EP

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF OVER
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEPICT A CUTOFF
LOW OVER AZ/NM...THE ECMWF DEPICTS UPPER TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW. GFS SHOWS MORE A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND IS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. MODELS
COME A LITTLE BETTER INTO PHASE MONDAY WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
WA/OR COAST WITH GFS TIMING SLIGHTLY FASTER. HINSBERGER

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. HRRR HINTING AT CONVECTION REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS KIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. HINSBERGER

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND HUMIDITY HIGHER. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
HEDGES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

113 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON W/V THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR EAST COAST CAUSING
DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA WAS CAUSING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE IMMEDIATE LA AND TX GULF COAST.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH. DIURNAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE AT BEST OF SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT TSRA THREAT FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SHOULD ENABLE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO FORM. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL REGENERATION OF CONVECTION
BE OVER OR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR OR EVEN OVER 50 KT...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH SPC HAS INCLUDED IN
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE BECOMING LESS HUMID AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS 850 AND 925 MB
TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL FROM TUESDAY. THUS AROUND 80 OR LOW
80S APPEARS LIKELY. ALSO THINKING THAT DUE TO DECENT WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADIENT LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IF AT ALL FOR ILLINOIS SHORE AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON ALONG INDIANA SHORE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 160 TO 200 DEGREE RANGE LIKELY BECOMING
STEADIER 160-180 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 KT
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 45
KT TOWARD 2000 FT AGL.

* SOUTH WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY BEEN KEEPING GUST
FREQUENCY LOW BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS RANGING FROM 130 TO 230 DEGREES OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO WITH MOST OBS SHOWING 160-200 DEGREES. EXPECT THAT
THIS VARIABILITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A
STEADIER 160-180 DIRECTION TAKING OVER. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THOUGH AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 25+ KT GUSTS TOWARDS RFD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FREQUENCY
MAY DROP OFF. WINDS LOOK TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING.

BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NE
IL/NW IN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA IS STILL FAVORED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS NEXT WAVE BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT MAY REACH
RFD SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION THERE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
AT ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY COULD SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MAY PASS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER MINIMAL CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE THREAT OVERNIGHT IS LOW
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION VARIABILITY DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THIS EVENING IS
LOW. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW OVERNIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LLWS POTENTIAL...MAY BE MARGINAL.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS TUESDAY.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED GUSTY TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY MUCH
OF THIS TIME.

MTF

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014
High pressure ridge slipping to the east today, leaving southerly
flow across Illinois. VFR through the forecast with confidence
dwindling in the pre dawn hours. BKN mid deck main cloud cover for
the remainder of the day. Some indication of increasing RH in the
lower levels resulting in a BKN045 group for this evening and
overnight. Issues with the forecast increase after midnight as the
MOS guidance and models diverge with handling of llvl moisture.
Majority of models maintain a mid deck. Just a few hint at 025
level/MVFR early. With some stratocu to the SW at this level and
sat imagery pushing that moisture east/northeast... cannot
discount. For now, starting the trend for MVFR potential with SCT
mention in for morning.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1108 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON W/V THIS MORNING SHOWS DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR EAST COAST CAUSING
DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA WAS CAUSING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OH VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE IMMEDIATE LA AND TX GULF COAST.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH. DIURNAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE AT BEST OF SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT TSRA THREAT FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SHOULD ENABLE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO FORM. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL REGENERATION OF CONVECTION
BE OVER OR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR OR EVEN OVER 50 KT...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH SPC HAS INCLUDED IN
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE BECOMING LESS HUMID AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS 850 AND 925 MB
TEMPS DO NOT COOL MUCH AT ALL FROM TUESDAY. THUS AROUND 80 OR LOW
80S APPEARS LIKELY. ALSO THINKING THAT DUE TO DECENT WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADIENT LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IF AT ALL FOR ILLINOIS SHORE AND PERHAPS MID
AFTERNOON ALONG INDIANA SHORE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* VARIABLE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEXT HOUR OR SO BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS
20-25KT MORE FREQUENT BY MIDDAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 45 KT AROUND 2000 FT AGL.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...

BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS SET UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO THE 12-15 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY AND BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS 17Z...AND EVEN
THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
VARIABILITY. GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL ALSO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FREQUENT...THOUGH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE FREQUENCY
LOW.

MDB

FROM 12Z...

A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM SUNRISE
TUESDAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COUPLE HOURS AFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.

MTF

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH THAT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 150-170 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

* HIGH THAT IF ANY RAIN OCCURS TODAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND
TEMPORARY. LOW ON WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG.

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED GUSTY TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY MUCH
OF THIS TIME.

MTF

.MARINE...
228 AM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

07
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

218 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

Issued a wind advisory for south-central Kansas as winds are at criteria
and conditions will continue through the rest of the day until early
evening via mixing/momentum transfer/tight pg. HWO/EHWO/wind grids all
updated.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

The NAM and GFS were in decent agreement with a west to east
surface front extending across southwest Kansas Tuesday night.
North of this front a moist upslope flow will be present roughly
from highway 96 northward, however 700mb temperatures above this
level are forecast to range from 10C to 12C. Given the warm mid
level temperatures the chance for early evening convection of this
boundary appears small between 00z and 06z Wednesday.

On Wednesday A 0-2.5km thta-e ridge axis is forecast to extend
from western Kansas to near Denver. This moist upslope flow
across western Kansas will once again be present under a +10c
700mb temperature, however low level forcing and mid level
instability will improve during the afternoon as the surface
boundary near the Oklahoma border moves north. By mid afternoon
there will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms, especially
north of this surface boundary and near the 0-2.5km thta-e ridge
axis. The chance for convection will then continue and expand in
area coverage during the overnight hours as an upper level
disturbance crosses the Central High Plains. 00z Thursday Cape
values are forecast to be in excess of 2000 j/kg and 0-6km shear
greater than 40knots. Any storm which does develop will be capable
coming severe. With preciptable water values forecast between 1
and 1.5 inches across north central Kansas Wednesday night periods
of heavy rainfall will be possible. In addition baseball size hail
and strong gusty winds can be expected from some of the stronger
thunderstorms. A few tornadoes can not be ruled out near the
surface boundary that is current forecast to be located in west
central and northwest Kansas late Wednesday and early Wednesday night.

For late week into the weekend period...models remain in good
agreement with a closed low crossing California and becoming
nearly stationary over the desert southwest late week. As this
upper level system becomes nearly stationary over the desert
southwest late week, a series of upper level disturbance are
forecast to eject northward across New Mexico into Central High
Plains. Across western Kansas late week and early this weekend a
surface boundary is forecast to drift north and south but
generally remain somewhere between the Oklahoma border and
northwest Kansas. South of this surface boundary a dryline will
extend of this boundary and these two features will be the focus
for precipitation. Given the uncertainty of the exact location of
each of these surface features along with timing issue between the
models of any disturbance crossing the Central High Plains will
stay close to the latest CRExtendFcst_Init for precipitation
chances from Thursday through Sunday. The better opportunity for
widespread precipitation each day late week and over the weekend
period will be north of this surface boundary where upslope flow
and 950mb to 850mb moisture axis will be located. At this time
based on the latest 12z model runs this area is currently forecast
to be located in/near southwest Kansas late Thursday through
Friday.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF PD. Strongest winds will be east
of the terminals. Still, SW winds of 15-25 kt can be expected for KGCK/KDDC/KHYS.
S/SE 10-15 kt winds expected tonight as dryline retreats. Weak fropa in
the morning with winds veering WNW-NNW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 94 60 90 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 56 91 58 88 / 0 10 10 20
EHA 56 94 57 89 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 54 96 58 90 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 59 88 61 88 / 0 10 10 20
P28 66 99 66 96 / 0 10 10 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ066-081-089-090.

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1200 PM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ066-081-089-090.

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1145 AM CDT Mon May 19 2014

...Update for winds...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.

WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ066-081-089-090.

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

112 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN MOVES
IN AND BRINGS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE SITES. THE
STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TONIGHT THE
ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN RAIN
OVERSPREADING UPPER MI W-E THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS THE RAIN CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

116 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA SLOWLY WORKING EAST WITH LLJ THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR HAS NOT BEEN BAD WITH TIMING THIS PRECIP...THOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY STILL BUILDING BACK SW INTO THE LLJ...MAY NEED TO DELAY
END OF PRECIP A BIT MORE FOR MSP/RNH/EAU. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
CIG FORECAST AWAY FROM THE GFSLAMP AND MORE TOWARD THE
RAP/HRRR...THOUGH THIS MAY HAVE RESULTED IN TAFS THAT WERE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. BASED ON THE HRRR
AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS..ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK UNLIKELY...SO STARTED TO DOWNPLAY THAT
IN TAFS. FOR WINDS...PRES GRADIENT OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN IS QUITE
TIGHT...SO DO EXPECT GUSTS UP NEAR 35 KTS AT AXN THROUGH 21Z
BEFORE SFC LOW NEAR ABR STARTS TO FILL IN.

KMSP...BASED ON BACK BUILDING OF RETURNS TO THE SW...WE MAY HAVE
TO PUSH ENDING OF PRECIP BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LLJ
CLEARS US OFF TO THE EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH CIG FORECAST.
GFSLAMP CONTINUES TO BE WAY TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS...SO
IT/S SO CONTINUED TO SHY AWAY FROM GOING THAT ROUTE. FOLLOWED
MORE THE TREND OF THE HRRR...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICK IN GOING
BACK TO VFR. HEIGHTS TO THE SW OF THE PRECIP HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 015
AND 025...SO EXPECT CIGS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN ABOVE 015. LOOKS
UNLIKELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE COLD FROPA...WITH FEW
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

307 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING IS INDICATING A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING ON SHORE ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON
COASTS. HT FALLS WERE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER WYOMING AND EASTERN MT
WITH 40 TO 50 METER FALLS NOTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WEAK HT
FALLS OF 10 TO 30 METERS WERE NOTED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NRN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOTED WEST OF
THIS FEATURE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF IMPERIAL...NNWD
INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE WERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...WHILE WEST OF THIS
FEATURE...DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 2 PM
CDT...SHOWS SOME NICE RETURNS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF THE I25
CORRIDOR IN EASTERN WYOMING...FROM NORTH OF CHEYENNE TO SOUTHEAST OF
DOUGLAS. OTHER ECHOES WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA. BASED ON SFC OBS...MUCH OF THIS
PCPN ISN/T REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. AS OF 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 73 AT VALENTINE...TO 85 AT
IMPERIAL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A TANDEM OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE FIRST WILL LIFT FROM EASTERN WYOMING
INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THEN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE
SECOND WILL LIFT INTO THE SANDHILLS FROM NERN COLORADO. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY LED TO SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT SHOULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING. CAP STRENGTH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z WHERE IT BEGINS TO ERODE FROM OGALLALA
TO THEDFORD. IN THESE AREAS...AM EXPECTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AROUND THE 6 TO 7 PM CDT TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS IN
THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE NEAR THE INITIATION POINT...HOWEVER...IT FALLS
OFF TO AROUND 30 KTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183...SO AM EXPECTING THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 4KM WRF AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH DEVELOP
STRONG...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING. AS
FOR SEVERE TYPES...CONTINUED THINKING IS LARGE HAIL FOR THE MAIN
SEVERE TYPE AS LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
EVENING. WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 8000 FT AGL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS INVOF ANY STORMS...HOWEVER...SINCE
LINEAR SEGMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
MID LEVEL PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORCED SOUTH INTO
KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR PCPN WILL FOLLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DRY CONDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST...TO NEAR
80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE 0-2KM THETA-E RIDGE ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA
BORDER. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LESS THAN 1000J/KG...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FINGER OF THE THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. WITH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY
(CAPE) OF 2000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-50KT...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...POSSIBLY COMING ACROSS INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE AFTER 06Z

A SIMILAR SITUATION EXISTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECAST LOCATIONS OF THE MAXIMUM CAPE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA-COLORADO BORDERS...THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
HIGHWAY 80.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FRONT STARTS WASHING OUT. STILL WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY WILL BRING CONTINUE TO BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CAPES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH...THOUGH THE HIGHER CAPES WILL COVER A
LARGER PART OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK...ONLY ABOUT 20KT OR LOWER...SO HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BY SUNDAY...THE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THESE STORMS
DEVELOP AND TRACK IS UP IN THE AIR SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME...BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS IS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS. AT THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS...COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS IS SUCH THAT
THEY WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1238 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

REMOVED POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO...AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
CLOSE TO NIL. I KEPT POPS THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT THESE
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED AS WELL. WATCH FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE AS MORE DATA COMES IN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR NORTH
THIS EVENING...APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING IN OUR SOUTH...AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT FOR HIGHS TODAY.

STRATUS IS DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AND COULD TEMPORARILY GIVE
US A CLOUDY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH NICE
SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN SOUNDINGS. WE COULD GET A ROGUE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE HELP
FROM A CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL JET. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED
UP IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA...HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THING TO WORRY ABOUT AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NOT
LAST LONG.

TODAY WE WILL LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. I WENT MUCH MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT
DOES BEST IN THESE SITUATIONS. WITH ANY SKY COVER EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM GETTING WELL INTO THE 80S
IF NOT 90S IN OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS AROUND...IT
LOOKS LIKE AN OVEN AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED MIXING...SOME OF OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES COULD GET CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD DROP OFF...SO THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MAKING 3 HOURS OF WIND AND HUMIDITY...SO I WILL
JUST MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

THIS EVENING COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING. WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A SUBTLE PERTURBATION COMING IN THIS EVENING. ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND BREAKING CAP...WE COULD BE IN FOR SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DISCRETE CELLS FORMING A
POTENTIAL MCS LATER ON IN THE EVENING. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HERE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS
WELL. IF WE GET THIS TO FIRE...THE SCALE WILL BE RELATIVELY
SMALL...SO I DID NOT GO CRAZY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
I ACTUALLY RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE FROM THE ALREADY MILD
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

ALOFT: THE FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFYING. A WRN USA TROF WILL
REFORM AS THE LOW /CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST/ DROPS SE AND CUTS
OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER CANADA. MEANWHILE...A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ITS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTENT
NW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

NO NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL BE MOVING THRU HERE THRU WED
NIGHT. SO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF CONVECTION.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TODAY WILL BE
LOCATED FROM SW-NE ACROSS KS TOMORROW /MCI-ICT-DDC/. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU WED. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL EXPAND S
INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE-WED.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE TSTM THREATS EXIST WED NIGHT-SUN. ITS IMPOSSIBLE
IN THIS PATTERN TO TELL WHICH TIME PERIODS HAVE A GREATER RISK AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE. IF THE CAP IS NOT OVERWHELMING...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE TSTM EPISODES THAT COULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: "SHOULD" BE A NICE DAY. A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL /10F/. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED WE MAY
BE TOO LOW ON WINDS. I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE AND GOTTEN BURNED IN NE
FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE NAM IS THE TIGHEST WITH THE PRES
GRADIENT. FOR NOW THE FCST HAS BEEN NUDGED CLOSER TO THE NAM...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NE 15-25G30 THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUE NIGHT: THE LLJ SHOULD BE NO FACTOR. IT WILL BE ORIENTED TOWARD
THE MID MS VALLEY.

WED: A TOUCH COOLER THAN TUE. STILL LOOKING DRY.

WED NIGHT: MULTIPLE MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON THIS TIME FRAME FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z NAM/EC ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AM NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHY. THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS FCST TO BE ALONG THE WRN
KS/OK BORDER.

THU: MORE MODELS CLIMB ABOARD WITH INCREASING QPF...PARTICULARLY THE
GFS.

THIS OVERALL UPTREND IN POTENTIAL TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TIED TO THE
MODELS WANTING TO TRY AND DEVELOP TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT
WHILE WASHING IT OUT WITH TSTM ACTIVITY. THIS COULD ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE VORT MAXIMA BEING EJECTED OUT FROM THE CUT-
OFF LOW AND ROUNDING THE RIDGE.

WHILE AM SKEPTICAL...TSTMS CANT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THERE WILL BE
AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF HIGH QUALITY MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 850 MB FRONTS AND THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS IS A PRIME LOCATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
SO POPS WERE MAINTAINED BUT TRIMMED TO NO MORE THAN 30% THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS THU.

FRI-SUN: MINIMAL TIME SPENT IN THESE PERIODS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FROM THE TUE-THU TIME FRAMES. MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
VERY GOOD ON BLOCKING HIGHS REMAINING OVER THE BERING SEA AND N
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES
FCST THE SW USA CUT-OFF TO ADVANCE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN IS LOOKING DECIDELY MORE SUMMERY WITH A 582 RIDGE FCST
TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE HEAVILY MODULATED
BY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANGE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS SCENARIO TO BE PLACE INTO THE TAF. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES COME TO FRUITION...IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD START TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY STALL AROUND THE
AREA INTO TOMORROW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

531 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
CELLS MOVING ACROSS MCKENZIE COUNTY AND INTO THEODORE ROOSEVELT
PARK NORTH. OUR CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HANDLES THIS
AREA WELL AND WILL CONTINUE. CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
IS THE SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST READY TO APPROACH
SCOBEY MONTANA. REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL WEST OF SCOBEY. THE
LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS REFLECTIVITY INTENSITY AS THIS AREA CROSSES
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING BAKER MONTANA WILL ALSO BE WATCHED THIS
EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BOWMAN RADAR INDICATIVE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHORTLY. LASTLY...WILL WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME INDICATION PER RAP AND NAM THAT
WE COULD SEE SOMETHING THIS EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND WANE BY 06Z TUESDAY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO KEEP
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS NORTHWEST
AND KEEP SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF/RAP ALL INDICATING SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE PRIMARY AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE NORTHWEST...WITH
CURRENT STORMS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...ADDED BY AN UPPER
LOW IN THE VICINITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE
STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND...WHERE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED. THIS AREA REMAINS OUTLOOKED IN THE 5
PERCENT RISK AREA FOR HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN
TO NEAR TO INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
STRATUS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH THE EXITING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COOL AND
DRY WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY
SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. A BIT
WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS 70-75.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND REMAINING OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN
MODEL LIFTING THE CUTOFF LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE GFS MOVING THE CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MVFR TO IFR/VLIFR CIGS HOVERING OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA MONDAY EVENING...WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT
KISN BY TUESDAY 08Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KMOT BY 09Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
SLIDE SOUTH TO KDIK BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH CIGS REMAINING JUST ABOVE
VFR AT KBIS/KJMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE VLIFR CIGS AT KISN WILL
LIFT TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING AND TO LOW VFR BY 21Z TUESDAY. KMOT
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR STATUS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

232 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME ACTIVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A
WEEK...COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SWINGING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC
COUNTIES TODAY SO FAR...BUT STORMS ARE FORMING OVER SISKIYOU AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES NOW AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT MODEL DATA FROM
THE RAP13 AND HRRR 3KM SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES AROUND 3PM AND THEN PUSH INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY AROUND 4 TO 5 PM. OF COURSE WE CAN`T TAKE THESE MODELS
VERBATIM...BUT THIS PROVIDES A GOOD IDEA OF THE SPATIAL EVOLUTION
AND MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND THEY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. HERE...A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW COULD SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE OUT THAT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES ON TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AREAS AWAY FROM MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. THE CURRY COUNTY COAST IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY, THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EC SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NEAR 130W SATURDAY, THEN THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE
PAC NW SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT NEAR
140W. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTION UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS AT THE SAME TIME. IN CONTRAST...THE
GFS SHOWS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY...TRACKING IT TOWARDS VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVING SOUTH INTO OREGON/WASHINGTON
MEMORIAL DAY. OF NOTE, THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR TO THE EC
AND THE RMOP GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A LOW PROBABILITY AND
PREDICTABILITY OF THE STRONGER TROUGH. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
GFS SOLUTION IS LOW AND WE`LL BE LEANING TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION,
THUS KEPT POPS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER
BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAT WAVE. MOST LIKELY THEY WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A COOL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
BETWEEN 22 AND 03Z WHICH COULD OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...UPDATED 19/1430 PDT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS. A THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED GALE FORCE WINDS AND STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS IN
WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS WATCH FOR THIS AREA. ALL OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT STRONG SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THAT TIME...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS. AFTER A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 8
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

NSK/MAP/MAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

330 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ARE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SD
AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A NARROW
AREA OF MIXED LAYER CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL EXIST. MEANWHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TNT AS S/W MOVES ACROSS
STATE. WITH INSTABILITY AXIS SO NARROW SUSPECT THAT IF ANY STORMS
GET GOING OVER THE EAST THEY WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING NEAR FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE DONE BY SUNSET AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
FOR THE WESTERN CWA AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT WITH S/W IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEAK MIXED LAYER
CAPE COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM BEFORE HEATING
ENDS. THE HRRR HAS COME AROUND TO THIS IDEA THUS WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN CWA. AFTER THIS EVENING
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THEN REMAINS IN COMMAND FOR
A COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

IT FINALLY APPEARS THE REGION WILL STAY IN A MILD/WARM PATTERN
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO START OFF THE PERIOD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE CWA IS STILL FEELING EFFECTS OF STABLE
SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. CONFINED PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...MORE
UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION. IT
WOULD APPEAR PATTERN TRIES TO GET STORMIER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE STAYING MILD. COULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN
REGARDS TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH...OVERALL BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT KATY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOWER CIGS BY 20Z OR SO WHEN CIGS SHOULD BE
INTO VFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLD -SHRA OR -TSRA DOTTING THE RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND INSERT MENTION
INTO TAFS AS NECESSARY.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

231 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE TO AROUND THE
BIG BEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY TIGHT WITH
BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS. THE 4KM WRF AND HRRR ALL
SHOW SOME EARLY MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING BUT
OTHER THAN THAT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE A BIT TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES BUT THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET SHUNTED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY RETREATING UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES. 43

.MARINE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHEASTERN BASED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOWER WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHEAST
FETCH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BAY WATER CONDITIONS AND GULF SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CHOPPY TO WITHIN 2 TO 4 FEET...RESPECTIVELY.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION...ANY RAIN
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO JUST BRIEF NORTHERN-PASSING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 86 70 87 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 86 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1258 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 32 KTS AT KRST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 1500
FT TO 3000 FT RANGE. A CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT DETERMINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT
WEAKENING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT...EXPECTING A 2 TO 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
INTO THE 700 TO 900 FT RANGE. NAM AND GFS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT BUT DIDN/T BUY INTO THOSE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIXING AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....04