Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/18/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS H5
HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED RETREATING HOWEVER THIS HASNT BEEN
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE YET AS TEMPERATURES IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS
/INCLUDING SKY HARBOR/ HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED PAST THE 100 DEGREE
MARK. WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEATING TO GO...102-107 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE
BET ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY ERODING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND AND IT WONT BE
UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST THAT THERES A REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS /OUT OF THE 100S ANYWAY/. 12Z BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE STILL
POINTING TOWARD LOWER 100S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND UPPER 90S/AROUND
100 ON MONDAY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN
AND COULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT OTHER
THAN THAT FLY IN THE OINTMENT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE A LOCK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REAL COOLDOWN /IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT/ WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON DIVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY MEANDERS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH
SIMILAR VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARVED NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM /NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY/ WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AND SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE OF THE FIRE-WEATHER
VARIETY. OF COURSE THERES ALWAYS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUSTY SPOTS AS WELL AND THAT MAY NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER AND CAN PIN DOWN
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
BUT COOLER AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED...MEANING 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SATURDAY...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SCT TO BKN IN NATURE...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING GNLY REMAINING AOA
20-25KFT. AFTN W-SW BREEZES TO PERSIST PAST SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT FOR
KIPL AND KBLH...WHILE BACKING TO THE SE FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER DRY PACIFIC STORM WILL BE DEEPENING INTO THE
REGION...PERSISTING WINDY CONDITIONS AND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
POCKETS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE WINDS SCALE BACK
AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOL. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEARLY STALLING OUT WHILE
KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZINESS ACROSS THE REGION.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ABATE WITH THE DECREASING WINDS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AT
OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CITY MAY 16TH MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
---- -------- -------- --------
PHOENIX 106 IN 1997 108 IN 1970 107 IN 1970
YUMA 109 IN 1956 109 IN 1970 113 IN 2008
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
104 PM MST FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS H5
HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED RETREATING HOWEVER THIS HASNT BEEN
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE YET AS TEMPERATURES IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS
/INCLUDING SKY HARBOR/ HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED PAST THE 100 DEGREE
MARK. WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEATING TO GO...102-107 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE
BET ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY ERODING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND AND IT WONT BE
UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST THAT THERES A REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS /OUT OF THE 100S ANYWAY/. 12Z BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE STILL
POINTING TOWARD LOWER 100S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND UPPER 90S/AROUND
100 ON MONDAY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN
AND COULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT OTHER
THAN THAT FLY IN THE OINTMENT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE A LOCK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REAL COOLDOWN /IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT/ WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON DIVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY MEANDERS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH
SIMILAR VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARVED NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM /NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY/ WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AND SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE OF THE FIRE-WEATHER
VARIETY. OF COURSE THERES ALWAYS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUSTY SPOTS AS WELL AND THAT MAY NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER AND CAN PIN DOWN
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
BUT COOLER AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED...MEANING 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SATURDAY...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING FROM
TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
BREEZES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CITY MAY 16TH MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
---- -------- -------- --------
PHOENIX 106 IN 1997 108 IN 1970 107 IN 1970
YUMA 109 IN 1956 109 IN 1970 113 IN 2008
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXPECTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE
REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX...EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
CAZ030-032-033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM BRUSHES NORTHERN CA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AS ANY RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:12 PM PDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE PAC NW COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FELL BETWEEN 1
AND 2 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RESULTED IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND 17 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST...TO THE 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE WRF
AND HRRR INDICATE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTLINE...BY NO
MEANS A SOLID STRATUS FIELD. LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE COASTLINE
AS WELL AS A FEW AREAS INLAND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IF ANY LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...EXPECT AN EARLY DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LOW ON LOW CLOUD TIMING AND
FORMATION. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURE
READINGS FROM THIS MORNING AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
ALONG THE COAST...TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE THAT WE COULD
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW THAT IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE
FORECAST.
850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER TUESDAY INTO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:21 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING ONSHORE GRADIENT TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. SEABREEZE 10-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:12 PM PDT FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODERATE WINDS WILL RESULT IN STEEP FRESH
SWELL.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF BEST POPS TO THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAP AND WRF INDICATE BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
NAM DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 00-02Z. EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT...BUT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES SHOULD ENSURE
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS.LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
...A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A BIT STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS BETTER...AND SO DOES
THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SO SHOULD HAVE A BIT STRONGER AND A
FEW MORE STORMS TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. PRIMARY WINDOW
LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 20Z-02Z. PRIMARY STORM THREATS LOOK TO BE WIND
GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 50 MPH...BRIEF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING. NOT A LOT
OF CAPE TO WORK WITH SO CONVECTION LIKELY ONLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT A FEW SPOTS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRAGGLERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A BIT OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LW
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW SAT
MORNING...WITH COLORADO STILL UNDER NE FLOW ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHEN
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE
INDICATING RIGHT AROUND 18Z FOR THE FRONT TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD
AND START INFLUENCING THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE THROUGH THE AFTN FOR THE E MTS AND PLAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA SUN
MORNING...WITH SW FLOW STRENGTHENING SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH MON AND
TUE AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW. DRY
AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE 80S NEARING 90F...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. SUN
WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT BOTH MON AND
TUE LOOK LIKE A SURE THING FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS LOCATE THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR WED...THEN ELONGATE THE TROUGH ON THU. THIS
TREND HAS AN ODD LOOK TO IT...AND CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON
WHAT WILL HAPPEN MIDWEEK. EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION EDGES BACK INTO THE CWA ON WED THEN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD ON THU. THIS IS WHAT THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE CAME
UP WITH...AND AT THIS TIME HAVE NO NEED TO ALTER. THE TREND FROM
WED ONWARD IS A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WHICH MAKES SENSE IF PCPN
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS GUSTING FROM 25-35 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
553 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH PERSISTENT TRAIN OF PCPN PUSHING
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING WELL
INTO THE SE US SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING BATCH OF HEAVIER PCPN TREKKING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF PUSHING INTO THE NYC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRRR BEEN CAPTURING THE PCPN
TODAY...AND BACKS UP THE TRACK OF THIS PCPN...AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN
PCPN IN THE AREA THEN THROUGH 00Z...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY WITH THE
PCPN...BUT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AND DECENT
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO TSTM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE HEAVIER PCPN PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTUAL BREAK POSSIBLY AROUND 00Z
AS THE FIRST BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN PUSHES NORTH...AND A SECOND AREA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NJ
AND NY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS BACKED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PUSHING TO THE EAST. THINKING IS WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH WITH THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...MORE ALIGNING OVER WESTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...GENERALLY
OCCURRING AFTER 01Z. THE LINE OF HEAVIER PCPN PROGRESSES EAST THEN
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...HITTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT AFTER
06Z. DESPITE CONTINUAL STRONGER SHEAR..INSTABILITY VALUES REALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...SO THINKING ISO TSTM THREAT DIMINISHES BY
06Z. AREAS OF THE NYC METRO DRY OUT BY 07Z...WITH AREAS OF EASTERN
CT/LI SEEING PCPN THROUGH 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH PSBL THROUGH 00Z...AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 06Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WINDS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CT/LI BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WELL TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING SPLITTING CENTRAL NY COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TRIGGER A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND THUS WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO SEEP INTO THE AREA...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS
PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN...WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...WITH UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME STACKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS CT.
ANOTHER SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SO AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
JUST AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOTE SOME MINOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME FOG. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE SEEN BUT EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT. LOCALLY AT
TIMES...GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS CONTINUES WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT 2KFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION TO
PINPOINT THUNDERSTORMS SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR TIME BEING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO LIFR THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND
DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO SW-W FLOW.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE
TO SW-W FLOW.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB CAMS AT THE SHORES AROUND LONG ISLAND INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG
HAS REFORMED ON THE WATERS. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN BEHIND IT. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSY FOR
ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERN MARINE ZONES MAY IMPROVE
BEFORE 10Z AND ADVSY COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25 TO 30
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO
8 FT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...WINDS TAPER
OFF...SO STILL EXPECTING WESTERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY
SAT MORNING...WITH EASTERN WATERS BY LATER SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY. ALL WATERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER NJ AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES BASIN AVG QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA MINUS SUFFOLK COUNTY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE FULL MOON
THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF
LONG ISLAND AND THR SHORES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THUS...THE
HIGHER TIDES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
010>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-069>075-
176>179.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH PERSISTENT TRAIN OF PCPN PUSHING
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING WELL
INTO THE SE US SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING BATCH OF HEAVIER PCPN TREKKING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF PUSHING INTO THE NYC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRRR BEEN CAPTURING THE PCPN
TODAY...AND BACKS UP THE TRACK OF THIS PCPN...AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN
PCPN IN THE AREA THEN THROUGH 00Z...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY WITH THE
PCPN...BUT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AND DECENT
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO TSTM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE HEAVIER PCPN PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTUAL BREAK POSSIBLY AROUND 00Z
AS THE FIRST BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN PUSHES NORTH...AND A SECOND AREA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NJ
AND NY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS BACKED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PUSHING TO THE EAST. THINKING IS WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH WITH THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...MORE ALIGNING OVER WESTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...GENERALLY
OCCURRING AFTER 01Z. THE LINE OF HEAVIER PCPN PROGRESSES EAST THEN
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...HITTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT AFTER
06Z. DESPITE CONTINUAL STRONGER SHEAR..INSTABILITY VALUES REALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...SO THINKING ISO TSTM THREAT DIMINISHES BY
06Z. AREAS OF THE NYC METRO DRY OUT BY 07Z...WITH AREAS OF EASTERN
CT/LI SEEING PCPN THROUGH 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH PSBL THROUGH 00Z...AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 06Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WINDS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CT/LI BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WELL TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING SPLITTING CENTRAL NY COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TRIGGER A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND THUS WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO SEEP INTO THE AREA...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS
PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN...WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...WITH UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME STACKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS CT.
ANOTHER SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SO AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
JUST AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOTE SOME MINOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME FOG. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE SEEN BUT EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT. LOCALLY AT
TIMES...GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS CONTINUES WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT 2KFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION TO
PINPOINT THUNDERSTORMS SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR TIME BEING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO LIFR THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND
DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO SW-W FLOW.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE
TO SW-W FLOW.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO 8 FT. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...WINDS TAPER OFF...SO
STILL EXPECTING WESTERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH EASTERN WATERS BY LATER SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY. ALL WATERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER NJ AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES BASIN AVG QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA MINUS SUFFOLK COUNTY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE FULL MOON
THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF
LONG ISLAND AND THR SHORES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THUS...THE
HIGHER TIDES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
010>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-069>075-
176>179.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JP/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH PERSISTENT TRAIN OF PCPN PUSHING
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING WELL
INTO THE SE US SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING BATCH OF HEAVIER PCPN TREKKING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF PUSHING INTO THE NYC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRRR BEEN CAPTURING THE PCPN
TODAY...AND BACKS UP THE TRACK OF THIS PCPN...AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN
PCPN IN THE AREA THEN THROUGH 00Z...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY WITH THE
PCPN...BUT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AND DECENT
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO TSTM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE HEAVIER PCPN PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTUAL BREAK POSSIBLY AROUND 00Z
AS THE FIRST BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN PUSHES NORTH...AND A SECOND AREA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NJ
AND NY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS BACKED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PUSHING TO THE EAST. THINKING IS WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH WITH THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...MORE ALIGNING OVER WESTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...GENERALLY
OCCURRING AFTER 01Z. THE LINE OF HEAVIER PCPN PROGRESSES EAST THEN
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...HITTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT AFTER
06Z. DESPITE CONTINUAL STRONGER SHEAR..INSTABILITY VALUES REALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...SO THINKING ISO TSTM THREAT DIMINISHES BY
06Z. AREAS OF THE NYC METRO DRY OUT BY 07Z...WITH AREAS OF EASTERN
CT/LI SEEING PCPN THROUGH 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH PSBL THROUGH 00Z...AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 06Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WINDS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CT/LI BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WELL TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING SPLITTING CENTRAL NY COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TRIGGER A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND THUS WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO SEEP INTO THE AREA...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS
PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN...WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...WITH UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME STACKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS CT.
ANOTHER SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SO AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
JUST AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOTE SOME MINOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME FOG. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE SEEN BUT EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SE AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. LOCALLY
AT TIMES...GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. LLWS
CONTINUES WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT 2KFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO LIFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO 8 FT. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...WINDS TAPER OFF...SO
STILL EXPECTING WESTERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH EASTERN WATERS BY LATER SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY. ALL WATERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER NJ AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES BASIN AVG QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA MINUS SUFFOLK COUNTY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE FULL MOON
THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF
LONG ISLAND AND SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE HIGHER
TIDES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
010>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-069>075-
176>179.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JP/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE
PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
IN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATION
NOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADAR
REPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
IF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH IS
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.
WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOO
QUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME NWLY
BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS A VERY
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH RAIN ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE WEEKEND THEN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY AND
COOLER AIR PRESENT ALOFT. ISOLATED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND
WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS START MVFR TO IFR WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS
EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTION.
WINDS: FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO THE PHILLY
METRO AIRPORTS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE GOING TO TRY TO STALL
THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS. KRDG AND KABE
WILL REMAIN WEST. KMIV AND KACY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. LLWS
FROM KPHL AIRPORTS EAST WILL BE ENDING AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS AND VSBYS FOR AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IFR EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS AND MVFR WESTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. KPHL LOCAL
AIRPORTS PREVAILING MVFR WITH SOME IFR MAINLY DUE TO VSBY IN
HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS EARLY.
DURING THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIG WITH RAIN
ENDING AND A GENERAL WEST WIND AT AROUND 10 KTS. LATEST
IMPROVEMENT AT KACY AND KMIV AND OTHER EASTERN AIRPORTS.
OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS AS WE LOSE THE VFR CIG. AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG FCST. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
ON SATURDAY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. WEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 10 KNOTS. IF A CUMULUS VFR CIG DOES FORM, MOST LIKELY
AIRPORTS ARE KABE AND KRDG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5,000FT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A CDFNT
WORKS ITS WAY EWD THRU THE AREA AND A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IMPACTS THE
AREA. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CFP.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE CRITERIA THIS MRNG BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO THEIR EXTENT OR OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEW CASTLE DE, AND CECIL MD.
THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND THE 1.75 INCH RANGE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A POTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED LIFT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E ADVECTION, AND THERMAL RIDGES
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN OCCURS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO THE LATE EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES; HOWEVER, SOME SMALL STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS, AND URBAN RELATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF BURSTS OF RAIN
OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS CONCLUDED ON CHESAPEAKE BAY. THAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING QUICKLY AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS UP DELAWARE BAY AND HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF
(HYBRID?) OCCURRING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A FULL MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING EXPECTED TODAY,
SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER, DELAWARE BAY WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT.
CHESAPEAKE BAY APPEARS SAFE NOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE IF ANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF OUR RIP CURRENT SEASON. A STRONG SCA
ALREADY UP AND INCREASING SELY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE FULL MOON FROM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WILL
MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND, WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MODERATE, BUT IT WILL BE
A LOUSY DAY TO BE IN THE WATER ANYWAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPAIR
EFFORTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1152 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE
PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
IN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATION
NOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADAR
REPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
IF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH IS
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.
WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOO
QUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME NWLY
BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS A VERY
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH RAIN ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE WEEKEND THEN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY AND
COOLER AIR PRESENT ALOFT. ISOLATED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND
WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND EVEN
LIFR AS A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN TO OUR W SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. LLWS
ALSO CONTINUED. CONDS WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY STATE OR WORSEN
THRU THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS THEN
EXPECTED BY EVE AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE AND CIGS GRADUALLY
RISE. A CFP WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5,000FT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A CDFNT
WORKS ITS WAY EWD THRU THE AREA AND A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IMPACTS THE
AREA. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CFP.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE CRITERIA THIS MRNG BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO THEIR EXTENT OR OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEW CASTLE DE, AND CECIL MD.
THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND THE 1.75 INCH RANGE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A POTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED LIFT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E ADVECTION, AND THERMAL RIDGES
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN OCCURS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO THE LATE EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES; HOWEVER, SOME SMALL STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS, AND URBAN RELATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF BURSTS OF RAIN
OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS CONCLUDED ON CHESAPEAKE BAY. THAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING QUICKLY AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS UP DELAWARE BAY AND HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF
(HYBRID?) OCCURRING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A FULL MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING EXPECTED TODAY,
SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER, DELAWARE BAY WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT.
CHESAPEAKE BAY APPEARS SAFE NOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE IF ANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF OUR RIP CURRENT SEASON. A STRONG SCA
ALREADY UP AND INCREASING SELY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE FULL MOON FROM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WILL
MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND, WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MODERATE, BUT IT WILL BE
A LOUSY DAY TO BE IN THE WATER ANYWAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPAIR
EFFORTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1124 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE
PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
IN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATION
NOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADAR
REPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
IF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH IS
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.
WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOO
QUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME NWLY
BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS A VERY
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH RAIN ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE WEEKEND THEN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY AND
COOLER AIR PRESENT ALOFT. ISOLATED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND
WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND EVEN
LIFR AS A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN TO OUR W SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. LLWS
ALSO CONTINUED. CONDS WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY STATE OR WORSEN
THRU THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS THEN
EXPECTED BY EVE AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE AND CIGS GRADUALLY
RISE. A CFP WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5,000FT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A CDFNT
WORKS ITS WAY EWD THRU THE AREA AND A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IMPACTS THE
AREA. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CFP.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE CRITERIA THIS MRNG BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO THEIR EXTENT OR OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEW CASTLE DE, AND CECIL MD.
THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND THE 1.75 INCH RANGE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A POTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED LIFT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E ADVECTION, AND THERMAL RIDGES
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN OCCURS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO THE LATE EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES; HOWEVER, SOME SMALL STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS, AND URBAN RELATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF BURSTS OF RAIN
OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDES HAVE REACHED MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS ON OUR SIDE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WILL ISSUE A QUICK ADVISORY. THIS EVENT IS
OCCURRING QUICKLY AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP DELAWARE BAY AND HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF (HYBRID?) OCCURRING DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A FULL MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING EXPECTED TODAY,
SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER, DELAWARE BAY, AND POSSIBLY CHESAPEAKE BAY, FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF ANY AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MEET MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF OUR RIP CURRENT SEASON. A STRONG SCA
ALREADY UP AND INCREASING SELY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE FULL MOON FROM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WILL
MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND, WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MODERATE, BUT IT WILL BE
A LOUSY DAY TO BE IN THE WATER ANYWAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPAIR
EFFORTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER ALL OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SITS WITHIN A BAND OF VERY
DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
CIRCULATION. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THAT THIS DRY AIR
INVADES THE ENTIRE TROP WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THROUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE COLUMN. THIS VERY DRY AIR AND LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR LIFT IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FL STRAITS. OUR POSITION IS PROVIDING AN E-NE
SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT WAS QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THESE
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE A FEATURE OF THE SUNDAY FORECAST AGAIN
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE WHEN DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS TO
TRANSPORT MOMENTUM BACK DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MORE SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE...WITH
EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS LOWER/MID 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST.
SUNDAY...ANOTHER FANTASTIC MID MAY DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY WARM THE COOL EARLY MORNING
CONDITIONS. LOOKING FOR A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP TO
SATURDAY...AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE JUST ANOTHER GREAT DAY TO
BE OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. EVENING EASTERLY SURGES WILL RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...NO FOG IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 68 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
119 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
646 AM CDT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN...OR JUST WET SNOW
IN SOME PLACES...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
RELAY THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS...THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA...AND THE
NSSL MPING APP. NWS DUAL POLARIZATION DATA HAS SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER IN HEIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS
THIS MODERATE PRECIP HAS SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHICH HAD COOLED MORE LAST NIGHT...IT APPEARS BY MODEL AND AMDAR
SOUNDINGS THAT THESE AREAS WERE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH AS THEY
SATURATED TO BRING SNOW TO THE GROUND IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES.
WE INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SNOW......ON MAY THE 16TH.......IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 10 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
* RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
* LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY/BRIEF FOG TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS STILL ONGOING. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND DID EXTEND THE DURATION OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THEM ANTICIPATED TO SCATTER
OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO LINGER BEYOND THE 20Z
TIME FRAME...BUT WITH AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND STILL EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. THEN EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THESE SCATTER...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POSSIBILITY. DID LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH LATER FORECASTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN TRENDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FOG TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
119 PM CDT
A STACKED...SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR WEAK LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE SATURDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY. GENERALLY
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Upper level low immediately over ILX spawning some showery
activity for the day. Cool air infiltrating the region resulting
in abnormally cool temps and a mostly cloudy day. Best chance for
measurable rainfall is still to the northeast, and increasing
through the afternoon with a diurnal assist to the showers. No
changes to much of the forecast is warranted, though a small
adjustment of the high temps will be made to drop them a bit and
adjust the gradient. Cold aloft partnered with the vorticity of
the low center increasing chance for some cold air funnels over
the area. Since they are even more likely as the afternoon
progresses, will add a mention of the issue to the HWO. A couple
have been sighted in the NErn sector of the Low, but will remain
possible over most of the area, with the best chances in the
eastern half of the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1249 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Problematic forecast for today. Upper low in place and plenty of
cooler air and shower activity. Upper low should be moving out to
the east in the next 8 to 10 hours... but any slower and the llvl
moisture will get trapped in the boundary layer when the sun
drops. Forecast very dependent on the speed of the low out of the
region and confidence is very low. Overnight clearing will lend
itself to fog potential in the morning and have trended the
forecast in that direction. Largely MVFR for the next 6 hours,
with spotty IFR for PIA and possibly BMI. Improving as the evening
progresses.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
646 AM CDT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN...OR JUST WET SNOW
IN SOME PLACES...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
RELAY THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS...THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA...AND THE
NSSL MPING APP. NWS DUAL POLARIZATION DATA HAS SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER IN HEIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS
THIS MODERATE PRECIP HAS SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHICH HAD COOLED MORE LAST NIGHT...IT APPEARS BY MODEL AND AMDAR
SOUNDINGS THAT THESE AREAS WERE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH AS THEY
SATURATED TO BRING SNOW TO THE GROUND IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES.
WE INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SNOW......ON MAY THE 16TH.......IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 10 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY.
* RAIN THROUGH MID DAY.
* NORTHEAST WINDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONTINUING TO FURTHER RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING INTO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN...NAMELY PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME REPORTS OF THIS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE THE STEADY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH ON MVFR CIGS AND RAIN
* HIGH ON WINDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
206 AM CDT
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK IN MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE SO THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS LAND/LAKE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES MAY EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS LAKE BREEZES LIKELY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP. THE KEY IS
THAT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1053 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Upper level low immediately over ILX spawning some showery
activity for the day. Cool air infiltrating the region resulting
in abnormally cool temps and a mostly cloudy day. Best chance for
measurable rainfall is still to the northeast, and increasing
through the afternoon with a diurnal assist to the showers. No
changes to much of the forecast is warranted, though a small
adjustment of the high temps will be made to drop them a bit and
adjust the gradient. Cold aloft partnered with the vorticity of
the low center increasing chance for some cold air funnels over
the area. Since they are even more likely as the afternoon
progresses, will add a mention of the issue to the HWO. A couple
have been sighted in the NErn sector of the Low, but will remain
possible over most of the area, with the best chances in the
eastern half of the state.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
A low pressure area will slowly move east out of the area today,
but the surface trough will linger over the region through this
afternoon. So, clouds and scattered showers will likely continue
during the period. Will have MVFR cigs during this time with VCSH
at all sites. IFR cigs have been occurring in the north, so have a
Tempo group for IFR cigs at PIA and BMI for few hours this
morning. By evening, cigs should have risen to above MVFR
category. Shortly after midnight it looks like skies will scatter
out, which will lead to unseasonably cold temps tonight. Winds
will be westerly this morning and then begin to switch as the sfc
trough shifts south of I-74. Expecting northwest winds at
SPI/DEC/CMI most of the day, with northeast winds at PIA/BMI.
After 00z, winds should become light and variable. Wind speeds
during the daylight hours will be less than 10kts at all sites.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
646 AM CDT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN...OR JUST WET SNOW
IN A SOME PLACES...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
RELAY THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS...THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA...AND THE
NSSL MPING APP. NWS DUAL POLARIZATION DATA HAS SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER IN HEIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AS THIS MODERATE PRECIP HAS SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 WHICH HAD COOLED MORE LAST NIGHT...IT APPEARS BY THE SOUNDINGS
THESE AREAS WERE ABLE TO COOL AS THEY SATURATED ENOUGH TO BRING
SNOW TO THE GROUND IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES.
WE INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SNOW......ON MAY THE 16TH.......IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 10 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
MIX WITH WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL.
* EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONTINUING TO FURTHER RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING INTO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN...NAMELY PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME REPORTS OF THIS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE THE STEADY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH ON MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. LOW ON WHAT
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM ON VISIBILITY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 6SM DURING
PRECIPITATION.
* LOW ON WHETHER A BRIEF MIX WITH WET SNOW/GRAUPEL OCCURS.
* HIGH ON WINDS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
206 AM CDT
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK IN MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE SO THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS LAND/LAKE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES MAY EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS LAKE BREEZES LIKELY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP. THE KEY IS
THAT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
A low pressure area will slowly move east out of the area today,
but the surface trough will linger over the region through this
afternoon. So, clouds and scattered showers will likely continue
during the period. Will have MVFR cigs during this time with VCSH
at all sites. IFR cigs have been occurring in the north, so have a
Tempo group for IFR cigs at PIA and BMI for few hours this
morning. By evening, cigs should have risen to above MVFR
category. Shortly after midnight it looks like skies will scatter
out, which will lead to unseasonably cold temps tonight. Winds
will be westerly this morning and then begin to switch as the sfc
trough shifts south of I-74. Expecting northwest winds at
SPI/DEC/CMI most of the day, with northeast winds at PIA/BMI.
After 00z, winds should become light and variable. Wind speeds
during the daylight hours will be less than 10kts at all sites.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
346 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
* LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
BRIEF GRAUPEL.
* EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRONOUNCED COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE FOR MAY WILL CONTINUE TO VERY
SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
ROTATE SHOWERS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK AND
LIKELY PROVIDE ALL AIRPORTS WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE
DRIER AIR ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH...THOUGH BRIEF SUB 2000 FT CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE...NAMELY AT RFD. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...COLD AIR WILL
STILL REMAIN IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS IS PRIMARILY TOO LOW OF A THREAT
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS AN EXTRA
LAKE COMPONENT GIVES A SLIGHT BOOST. WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS OCCURRING.
* HIGH IN AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY LIGHT SHOWERS AND THAT
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW THAT ANY GRAUPEL WILL
OCCUR.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND MEDIUM IN TIMING OF 10 KT OR GREATER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. PRIMARILY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
206 AM CDT
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK IN MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE SO THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS LAND/LAKE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES MAY EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS LAKE BREEZES LIKELY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP. THE KEY IS
THAT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecst package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occuring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Thu May 15 2014
Unsettled weather will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through most of the 06Z TAF valid time. An upper level
low is expected to remain in the area through much of the period,
accompanied by abundant low cloud cover and scattered showers.
Initially VFR conditions are anticipated, but most guidance
suggest cigs will lower to MVFR later tonight. Then, cigs should
rise again to VFR Friday afternoon. The showers will be most
numerous during peak heating on Friday. Winds will be
light/variable into Friday afternoon, but will be trending toward
the northwest by late Friday and increasing in speed.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
822 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO TRACK INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME
PATCHY FROST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...AND THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69. A FAIRLY COMPACT VORT MAX PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/22Z RAP ANALYSIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE AREA OVER
NEXT HOUR WITH STRONGEST DPVA ALREADY HAVING SHIFTED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS OF 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FROST CONCERNS.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND GIVEN
WEAK NATURE TO ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES...HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LESS CLOUDINESS FOR LATE EVENING. EARLIER CLEARING
TREND AND POSITION OF SFC RIDGE DOES LEND SOME CONCERN AS TO FROST
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DUE TO EXPECTED
POSITION OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND
WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN
TERMS OF TEMPS. WILL ALSO BE ISSUING A LATE EVENING UPDATE TO
REMOVE ISOLD SHOWER WORDING FROM THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROF AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER NRN INDIANA AND SW
LOWER MICHIGAN AS LIMITED DAY TIME HEATING WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/FCST EARLIER TO INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ADD SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME WARMING AT LEVELS ABOVE 700 MB
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...EXTREMELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
ADDITION TO WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
ENOUGH WITH LOW CAPES...BUT ALSO WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SMALL HAIL. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
HAIL JUST BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE MID LEVEL WARMING AND THE
LATEST CC/ZDR ON THE DUAL POL RADAR SUPPORTED JUST RAIN AT THE
SURFACE. ALSO...HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY MORE HAIL REPORTS SINCE THIS
MORNING. THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN WERE MOSTLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO EXPECTED OVERALL COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A
SECOND UPPER TROF WAS ENTERING NRN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD RACE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIMITED CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE
GFS/MAV AND NAM/MET HAVE BEEN DOING REASONABLY WELL THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FOLLOW. EXPANDED PATCHY FROST TONIGHT
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
UPR RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH LINGERS
OVER OH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES WITH TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 20F FROM AFTN HIGHS
TO LOWS IN THE L-M40S.
UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY PROVIDING A
CONTINUATION TO THE WARMING TREND. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTN BUT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MIXING/WAA
SHOULD COMPENSATE ALLOWING FOR RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RISE WITH HIGHS
IN THE L70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
LEAD SHRTWV AHEAD OF DIGGING WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT-TUE CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE
ACROSS OUR CWA. RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FROPA WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY... BUT CAPPING
AROUND 12KFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH SO CONTD WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS N-NE PORTION OF CWA
WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKER CAPPING EXPECTED.
SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE UPR GRTLKS WILL WEAKEN
MID LEVEL CAPPING TUE NGT AS ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP TUE NGT INTO WED AS FRONT
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S AND LOWS IN THE
L-M60S TUE-WED.
MID-WEEK RIDGE TOPPING SHRTWV EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF OVER THE NERN U.S.
AND DRIFT SLOWLY E-NE LATE WEEK WITH RIDGING CONTG IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SFC HIGH NEARLY STNRY OVER THE UPR
GRTLKS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
STABLE/FAIR WX. WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RATHER WARM MID-UPR
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS ENDED FOR THE TERMINALS...WITH
DIURNALLY ENHANCED HIGH BASED CU ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING AS CENTER OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FEW-SCT
VFR BASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON CU.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF INDIANA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DENSER CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY FRONT WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS N INDIANA AND FAR
S LWR MI PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH SUN SETTING...DIURNAL CU WAS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING. AS A RESULT...PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES APPEARS ON TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SE INTO
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE CAPTURED PRECIP
TRENDS WELL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 2 BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
FIRST BAND...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM MOLINE SE TO CHAMPAIGN WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY ENE AND MAY DISSIPATE ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY BAND
BEHIND IT (FROM PEORIA TO EFFINGHAM IL). ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SW SECTIONS...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK
IN BY 6Z.
AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
GRIDS/ZONES/HEADLINE WITH OVERALL SPIRIT OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY
AT NOON WERE ONLY 37 DEGREES AT MICHIGAN CITY AND 36 BENTON HARBOR.
GIVEN THE CHILLY AIRMASS...DECOUPLING WINDS...AND SOME CLEARING...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN AREAS
TO AROUND 34 DEGREES...CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. EXPECT RECENT RAINFALL
AND SOME CLOUDS TO HELP TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ALSO
CONCERN FOR GROUND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT FOG
OUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES. OTHERWISE...CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS INCLUDING MONTICELLO.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SECONDARY JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF WRN LAKES TROUGH WILL
BE ON THE WAY OUT FRI NIGHT. WILL HOLD W/EVENING MENTION SE BUT
REMAINDER XPCD TO REMAIN DRY. HWVR W/MEAT OF COLD CORE UPR LOW STILL
OVERTOP THE AREA SAT ALG W/RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR BELIEVE ITS
PRUDENT TO EXPAND POPS A BIT SAT AFTN ESP IN LIGHT OF BNDRY LYR
MODIFICATION.
UPR TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY ACRS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MON WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE BLOWS UP AHD OF NEW SW DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY W/80S XPCD BY WED.
INITIAL POOR LL THETA-E RTN INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN RIDGE
DOES NOT FVR MID PD LOW CHC POPS AND WILL DROP THIS CYCLE ESP IN
CONTEXT OF WWD HOLDING UPR TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE GREAT BASIN
AND LEE SIDE SFC REFLECTION HOLDING FIRM VCNTY ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NEAR QUAD CITIES TO GRADUALLY
CYCLONICALLY PINWHEEL THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COINCIDENT/STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE SUBSTANTIAL LIGHT SHRA COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CIGS ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE PER BLEND OF
RAP/SREF/NAM SOUNDINGS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ004>007.
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LOCATIONS IN OUR EASTERN CWA MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WHILE ELSEWHERE
LOWER TO MID 50S SEEM ON TARGET. THE RECORD COOL HIGH FOR DUBUQUE
IS IN JEOPARDY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS EVENING. WILL EVALUATE THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT BUT
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PATCHY FROST WORDING WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NW IL HAS NOW
TURNED BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
THE STRONG VORT MAX/UPPER LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IL
TAKING THE STRONG FORCING EAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT...THE
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING IN OUR IL COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WAS BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN
OUR NW COUNTIES. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG WITH INSTABILITY POPCORN SHOWERS DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THE POCKET OF -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
WAS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
DVN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY 16...
DUBUQUE........52...1945
MOLINE.........46...1945
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1054 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LOCATIONS IN OUR EASTERN CWA MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WHILE ELSEWHERE
LOWER TO MID 50S SEEM ON TARGET. THE RECORD COOL HIGH FOR DUBUQUE
IS IN JEOPARDY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS EVENING. WILL EVALUATE THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT BUT
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PATCHY FROST WORDING WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NW IL HAS NOW
TURNED BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
THE STRONG VORT MAX/UPPER LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IL
TAKING THE STRONG FORCING EAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT...THE
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING IN OUR IL COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WAS BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN
OUR NW COUNTIES. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG WITH INSTABILITY POPCORN SHOWERS DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THE POCKET OF -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
WAS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
DVN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/17. NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
AFT 00Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY 16...
DUBUQUE........52...1945
MOLINE.........46...1945
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NW IL HAS NOW
TURNED BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
THE STRONG VORT MAX/UPPER LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IL
TAKING THE STRONG FORCING EAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT...THE
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING IN OUR IL COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WAS BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN
OUR NW COUNTIES. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG WITH INSTABILITY POPCORN SHOWERS DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THE POCKET OF -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
WAS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
DVN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/17. NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
AFT 00Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/17. NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
AFT 00Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS
AROUND THE AREA AND REGION OF SMALL HAIL AS EXPECTED EARLIER. LOOKS
LIKE A TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE
LAST DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD START TO SEE A DECREASE IN RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. UPDATED FORECAST TO FRESHEN UP THE WEATHER
GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATED A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS, FIRST TO REMOVE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, AND SECONDLY, TO REFINE THE POPS/WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THEIR WAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH 250J/KG. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH ANY AREA OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALL SLIDE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL.
UPDATED FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS SUNSET. SKIES WILL GO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW STAYS TO OUR NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WE COULD BE IN LINE
FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CU
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATED A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS, FIRST TO REMOVE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, AND SECONDLY, TO REFINE THE POPS/WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THEIR WAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH 250J/KG. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH ANY AREA OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALL SLIDE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL.
UPDATED FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLEARING OUT AHEAD OF A DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO CONTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE VCSH GOING IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE RENEWED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PREDAWN TIME
FRAME TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLEARING OUT AHEAD OF A DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO CONTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE VCSH GOING IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE RENEWED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PREDAWN TIME
FRAME TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
WITH THE SKIES NOW MORE EFFECTIVELY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
ADDITION OF TEMPOS TO IFR AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF TIME OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THIS AS JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
WITH THE SKIES NOW MORE EFFECTIVELY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
ADDITION OF TEMPOS TO IFR AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF TIME OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THIS AS JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CLOUD COVER AND FOG CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE EASTERN CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IN BETWEEN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME OF CLEAR SKIES AND
RADIATIVE COOLING TO RESULT IN AREAS OF VALLEY FOG...AS SEEN ALREADY
OCCURRING AT EKQ AND SME. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...OBS...AND
TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH
SEEM TO AGREE THAT AS THE LINE OUT TO THE WEST APPROACHES IT WILL BE
BREAKING UP AROUND 8 AM AS IT IS ABOUT TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
11 AM...THE LINE WILL BE REDEVELOPING AND WILL GET PRETTY ACTIVE. THE
AIR IS VERY UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD SYNOPTIC SITUATION TO SEE SOME
GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS AGAIN DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME VALLEY FOG. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SKIES SCATTERING OUT THIS
EVENING. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT...THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT FORM. IF THEY SCATTER OUT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE IN PLACES. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE FORECAST. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGING ALONG THE US
WEST COAST. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...BUT ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHERN MO ATTM. THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO A CENTRAL WV TO
WESTERN NC LINE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LINGERS
AND SOME OF THIS APPEARS TO BE UPSLOPE DRIVEN WITH AN UPSLOPE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME BREAKS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY AND SOME
CLEARING OVER WESTERN TN AND EASTERN AR. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE NEARING THE
MID MS VALLEY OVER MO AND NORTHERN AR. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER ACROSS EAST KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SOME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
FOR A TIME AND SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR. DESPITE THAT...COLD
ADVECTION WOULD FAVOR THE COLDEST MIN T TONIGHT ON THE RIDGES.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON TIMING...SOME SHOWERS MIGHT APPROACH THE REGION
LATE...BUT WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION AND CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...MID LEVELS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCES OF THUNDER. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
WBZ HEIGHTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 6KFT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGER ON THE
NAM...BUT THE LOW LEVELS MORE MOIST WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN
INVERTED VA LOOK SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. ATTM...WE PLAN TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE HWO FOR FRI.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO NOSE TOWARD THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION NORTH
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE DEGREE OF CLEARING IS IN QUESTION...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FROST. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE
OF CLEARING IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE
AND STAYED VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. IF CLEARING WOULD OCCUR...THE
COOP MOS GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT THAT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY. WINDS LOOK TO BE
NEAR CALM DURING THIS PERIOD SO SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. MODELS
ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY MAY AFFECT OUR FORECAST
AREA. WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER WILL THERE BE. AT THIS TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS POINTING TOWARDS SKIES THAT ARE AT LEAST NOT
CLEAR. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK PROBABLE IN
THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS AND GFS MOS FOR COOP LOCATIONS IS EVEN
INDICATING SOME LOWER 30S FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS A
BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP WITH TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MS VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
WITH THE SKIES NOW MORE EFFECTIVELY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
ADDITION OF TEMPOS TO IFR AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF TIME OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THIS AS JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1206 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE 2...CHASING TEMPS A BIT AS THEY ARE WARMING ABOVE OUR
PREDICTED HIGHS. HAVE INCREASED OUR HIGH TEMPS AND ADJUST CLOUD
COVE AND WINDS. ISSUED AN UPDATED LAKE FORECAST ALSO.
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAK TEMPS AND SKY AND DEW POINTS TO AGREE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. RAIN SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.
PREV DISC... LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR RUN STILL INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVER INLAND
AREAS...READINGS WILL TOP OUT OVER 70 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTY OF
CLOUDY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO
MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WITH FOLIAGE IN FULL BLOOM...AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL WILL BE ABSORBED SOMEWHAT BEFORE RUNOFF
OCCURS INTO THE RIVERS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT POSSIBLE SHARP RIVER
RISES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS
EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP EACH
AFTN DUE TO THE COMBO OF SFC HTG/COOL UPPER LOW ALOFT AND PLENTY
OF RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR TO BE LIFTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS BUT LWRD SOME OF THE POPS TO PRESENT MORE SCT DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...
FOG...AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN HIGH SAT NIGHT BUT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR 2. WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
TFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
859 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAK TEMPS AND SKY AND DEW POINTS TO AGREE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. RAIN SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.
PREV DISC... LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR RUN STILL INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVER INLAND
AREAS...READINGS WILL TOP OUT OVER 70 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTY OF
CLOUDY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO
MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WITH FOLIAGE IN FULL BLOOM...AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL WILL BE ABSORBED SOMEWHAT BEFORE RUNOFF
OCCURS INTO THE RIVERS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT POSSIBLE SHARP RIVER
RISES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS
EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP EACH
AFTN DUE TO THE COMBO OF SFC HTG/COOL UPPER LOW ALOFT AND PLENTY
OF RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR TO BE LIFTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS BUT LWRD SOME OF THE POPS TO PRESENT MORE SCT DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...
FOG...AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN HIGH SAT NIGHT BUT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR 2. WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
TFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
630 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS CONTINUE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WITH
JUST SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. THE
LATEST HRRR RUN HAS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION AROUND 20Z
OR SO...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREV DISC...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR RUN STILL INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVER INLAND
AREAS...READINGS WILL TOP OUT OVER 70 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTY OF
CLOUDY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO
MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WITH FOLIAGE IN FULL BLOOM...AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL WILL BE ABSORBED SOMEWHAT BEFORE RUNOFF
OCCURS INTO THE RIVERS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT POSSIBLE SHARP RIVER
RISES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS
EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP EACH
AFTN DUE TO THE COMBO OF SFC HTG/COOL UPPER LOW ALOFT AND PLENTY
OF RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR TO BE LIFTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS BUT LWRD SOME OF THE POPS TO PRESENT MORE SCT DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...
FOG...AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN HIGH SAT NIGHT BUT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR 2. WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
513 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHEASTWARD STREAKING VORT LOBE IS MANAGING TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
COHERENT SHIELD OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL PVA AHEAD
OF IT. THIS COUPLED WITH DRASTICALLY DECREASING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND QUICKLY INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
MANAGING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LIFT
AS WELL. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THE VORT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THUNDER CARRIED IN
BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA PER INSTABILITY FROM
THE RAP SOUNDINGS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WL DRAG A REINFORCING CDFNT OVR THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...WHICH WL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHWR
DVLPMNT UNDR A VERY COLD MID LVL TEMP REGIME. CHC POPS FOR SCT
SHWR EXPECTATIONS IN A MINIMALLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH THE COLD HIGH TEMP FORECAST VIA NAM GUIDANCE.
BROAD UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVR THE ERN CONUS TO START THE
NEW WEEK...ALTHOUGH COLD CORE TROF AXIS IS MDL SHIFTED NEWD. POP
CHCS WERE THUS DIMINISHED FOR SUN AND MONDAY AND TEMPS PROGNOSIS
ALLOWED TO BGN MODERATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD WL FEATURE WARMING TEMPS AS BROAD RIDGE DVLPS
OVR THE CNTRL CONUS. MID WEEK PCPN PROBABILITIES WL BE DEPENDANT
ON SHRTWVS MOVING ACRS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE AND OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. GENL CHC NMBRS WL SUFFICE UNTIL TIMING AND BNDRY
PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE BTR DEFINED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WL CONT THRU THE AFTN FOR PORTS N-E OF PIT...OTRW VFR
STRATOCU WL CONT THRU SAT. A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WL BRING INCRG
SHWR CHCS LT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. BRIEF VSBY RSTRNS AND ISOLD
TSTMS ARE PSBL...BUT COVG IS EXPD TO BE TOO LMTD FOR MENTION IN
TAFS FOR NOW.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES OVR THE WKEND. MD
WK LOW PRES WL BRING ADDNL RSTRN CHCS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TOWARDS JACKSON. LIGHT RAIN MIGHT EVEN BE IN
PLAY EARLY TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...TEND TO FAVOR THE
HI-RES ARW WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO EXIT
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE DETROIT OFFICE...AND WE AGREE THAT CHANCES
FOR FROST DECREASE AS ONE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THEIR AREA DUE TO
RESIDUAL RAIN/MOIST LOW LEVELS/WET SOIL CONDITIONS THERE. THANKS FOR
COORDINATION DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP TO COMMENCE SUNDAY WITH NO
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
TRANSITION TO THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A DAY AND A HALF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SFC LOW MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE CWA. MUCAPES ARE PROGD TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG LATE TUESDAY. IT/S EARLY YET...BUT SHEAR
VALUES PROGD AROUND 50KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TUESDAY.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES SOUTH
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. AFTER MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE SATURDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS
OCCURRING NEAR I-94 THIS EVENING IS VERY LIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. A INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INLAND OF US-131. THESE SHOWERS
WOULD BE BRIEF AND FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WOULD STAY VFR EVEN IN THE SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT AND THE RED CEDAR RIVER AT EAST LANSING IN
INGHAM COUNTY CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SYCAMORE CREEK SHOULD
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING WHILE THE RED CEDAR RIVER SHOULD
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER SITES SHOULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE... THOUGH A COUPLE MAY COME CLOSE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TOWARDS JACKSON. LIGHT RAIN MIGHT EVEN BE IN
PLAY EARLY TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...TEND TO FAVOR THE
HI-RES ARW WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO EXIT
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE DETROIT OFFICE...AND WE AGREE THAT CHANCES
FOR FROST DECREASE AS ONE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THEIR AREA DUE TO
RESIDUAL RAIN/MOIST LOW LEVELS/WET SOIL CONDITIONS THERE. THANKS FOR
COORDINATION DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP TO COMMENCE SUNDAY WITH NO
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
TRANSITION TO THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A DAY AND A HALF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SFC LOW MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE CWA. MUCAPES ARE PROGD TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG LATE TUESDAY. IT/S EARLY YET...BUT SHEAR
VALUES PROGD AROUND 50KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TUESDAY.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES SOUTH
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. AFTER MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR I-94 AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT AND THE RED CEDAR RIVER AT EAST LANSING IN
INGHAM COUNTY CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SYCAMORE CREEK SHOULD
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING WHILE THE RED CEDAR RIVER SHOULD
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER SITES SHOULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE... THOUGH A COUPLE MAY COME CLOSE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...93
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
142 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON MIXING AND AS HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SYSTEM SKIRTING TO OUR SOUTH.
SOME MOISTURE IS BEING SHED OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI
WHICH MAY END UP PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MI AND THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IGNITES A
DECENT CU FIELD AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PROB30
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A GENERAL W/NW DIRECTION...REMAINING WESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WELL. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLOUDS
FIELD AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EVEN WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SFC
MOISTURE...CLOUD FIELD SHOULD PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
HELPED TO CLEAR EARLIER CLOUDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH THE INVERSION, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR
900MB, THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. SCATTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SHEARS NORTH ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA,
PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MAIN PV ANOMALY PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH ANYMORE THAN A HIGHER CHC POP.
SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER
SIDE DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
-3C BY 12Z. MAV/MET BLEND INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT INTO EASTERN
CANADA DURING SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND LIMITED BY A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE FEATURES SUITABLE TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND FOR MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT
STARTING THE DAY NEAR -30C AT 500 MB...BUT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN IF WE "ONLY"
SUSTAIN ABOUT -26C BY AFTERNOON...THAT IS STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF -15.9 AND NEAR THE -28.7C RECORD LOW 500 MB TEMPERATURE
AT 12Z ON THE 17TH. MID MAY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO FUEL SOME SHOWERY CONVECTION EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AVERAGING
IN THE MID 30S...BUT THIS IS ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS
IN MODEL DATA TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A CLEARING TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST SETUP FOR FROST IN OUR AREA AS THE CLEARING
TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NO MORE THAN A LIGHT SW WIND THAT LOOKS
VULNERABLE TO DECOUPLING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES MIN TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOLID ON THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING THAT MAKES GUIDANCE OFFERINGS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TARGET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY MODEL INDICATIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD SUGGEST THE
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST DECAYING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY FROM A WIND AND
WAVE PERSPECTIVE...BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DUE TO
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FILTERED BACK INTO THE AREA BENEATH AN INVERSION
CENTERED NEAR 900MB. RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD
COVER UNTIL POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH REGARDING THE PREVAILING SKY CONDITION AT
THE METRO AREA AIRPORTS GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS, BUT SATELLITE TRENDS DO SUGGEST SOME
INTRUSION OF LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLEARING THIS AFTN WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS WIDESPREAD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST. CEILINGS
WILL THEN LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT, MAINLY CENTERED IN THE 3-6Z PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
HELPED TO CLEAR EARLIER CLOUDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH THE INVERSION, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR
900MB, THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. SCATTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SHEARS NORTH ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA,
PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MAIN PV ANOMALY PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH ANYMORE THAN A HIGHER CHC POP.
SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER
SIDE DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
-3C BY 12Z. MAV/MET BLEND INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT INTO EASTERN
CANADA DURING SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND LIMITED BY A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE FEATURES SUITABLE TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND FOR MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT
STARTING THE DAY NEAR -30C AT 500 MB...BUT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN IF WE "ONLY"
SUSTAIN ABOUT -26C BY AFTERNOON...THAT IS STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF -15.9 AND NEAR THE -28.7C RECORD LOW 500 MB TEMPERATURE
AT 12Z ON THE 17TH. MID MAY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO FUEL SOME SHOWERY CONVECTION EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AVERAGING
IN THE MID 30S...BUT THIS IS ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS
IN MODEL DATA TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A CLEARING TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST SETUP FOR FROST IN OUR AREA AS THE CLEARING
TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NO MORE THAN A LIGHT SW WIND THAT LOOKS
VULNERABLE TO DECOUPLING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES MIN TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOLID ON THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING THAT MAKES GUIDANCE OFFERINGS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TARGET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY MODEL INDICATIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD SUGGEST THE
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST DECAYING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY FROM A WIND AND
WAVE PERSPECTIVE...BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DUE TO
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
HELPED TO CLEAR EARLIER CLOUDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH THE INVERSION, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR
900MB, THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. SCATTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SHEARS NORTH ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA,
PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MAIN PV ANOMALY PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH ANYMORE THAN A HIGHER CHC POP.
SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER
SIDE DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
-3C BY 12Z. MAV/MET BLEND INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS
REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT INTO EASTERN
CANADA DURING SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND LIMITED BY A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE FEATURES SUITABLE TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND FOR MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT
STARTING THE DAY NEAR -30C AT 500 MB...BUT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN IF WE "ONLY"
SUSTAIN ABOUT -26C BY AFTERNOON...THAT IS STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF -15.9 AND NEAR THE -28.7C RECORD LOW 500 MB TEMPERATURE
AT 12Z ON THE 17TH. MID MAY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO FUEL SOME SHOWERY CONVECTION EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AVERAGING
IN THE MID 30S...BUT THIS IS ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS
IN MODEL DATA TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A CLEARING TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST SETUP FOR FROST IN OUR AREA AS THE CLEARING
TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NO MORE THAN A LIGHT SW WIND THAT LOOKS
VULNERABLE TO DECOUPLING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES MIN TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOLID ON THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING THAT MAKES GUIDANCE OFFERINGS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TARGET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY MODEL INDICATIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD SUGGEST THE
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST DECAYING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY FROM A WIND AND
WAVE PERSPECTIVE...BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DUE TO
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
//DISCUSSION...
STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF SCT CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
STILL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 5 HOUR WINDOW FROM
10Z-15Z. THEREAFTER...BKN VFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY UNDER UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.
SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL THEN PIVOT INTO SOUTHERN
CWA LATE IN THE FORECAST...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS AND
SCT -SHRAS.
FOR DTW...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SCATTER OUT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE AREA...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ANY CLEARING WILL
BE TEMPORARY AS CU/STRATO-CU FILL BACK INTO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
FOR DTW...
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH 09Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET AGAIN AFTER 15Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST...WITH 00Z-12Z H3 FALLS UP TO 180M...BTWN HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS OF SIGNIFICANCE WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NNEWD
THRU ERN WI TOWARD CENTRAL UPR MI AND THE SECOND IS DIGGING SEWD
THRU IOWA. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SHARPENING OF THE UPR TROF...WRN
EDGE OF THE DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR OVER FAR ERN UPR MI HAS
BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E AND AWAY FM THE CWA. IN FACT...STLT
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI UNDER
JET SURGE REGION OF SHRTWV NOW LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED...COLDER CLD TOPS OVER ECENTRAL WI
ON CYC SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED H7 LO AND TO THE E OF THE
OTHER SHRTWV IN IOWA. DESPITE A FAIRLY MOIST LYR BTWN H9-5 SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB...RA UNDER THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLD HAS BEEN LGT
AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY. THE PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS. SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPR
MI ROSE AS HI AS 15-20F. THE FEED OF THIS LLVL DRY AIR LIMITED THE
EXPANSION OF PCPN TO THE W DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POPS/PTYPE ASSOCIATED WITH
PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. LACK OF CLEAR PHASING BTWN THESE TWO
SEPARATE DISTURBANCES/AREAS OF DEEPER MSTR/IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE THE CHIEF LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP INTENSITY/
COVERAGE.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...GIVEN THE UPR DRY SLOTTING BTWN WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL
AS THE LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA/LATEST OBS
WV TRENDS TO THE S...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW
MODEL FOR POPS/QPF. THERE WL BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP AREA
INTO THIS EVNG OVER THE CENTRAL AND E WITH PASSAGE OF H7 LO OVER
NEWBERRY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF F85-7 FGEN JUST TO THE W UNDER AREA
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. BUT PASSAGE OF AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N BY 03Z WL DIMINISH ANY HEAVIER MIXED PCPN. UPSLOPE N
WIND WL BRING MORE NMRS SHOWERS TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIER TERRAIN...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL LIMIT AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LYR FORCING...THE MOST PERSISTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL UNDER AXIS OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/LOWER HGTS FORECAST BY ALL THE GUIDANCE.
PTYPE IS TRICKY. WHILE HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/LOWER WBZ HGT
FAVOR MAINLY SN...LIGHTER PCPN INTENSITY WL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...
SUSPECT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WL BE MAINLY RA THIS AFTN WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. BUT LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TURN PRIMARILY TO SN
AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE DISCONNECT BTWN DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR/
NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT ANY SN ACCUMS WL BE UNDER AN INCH AT
MOST PLACES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL. LINGERING CLD COVER THRU THE NGT SHOULD LIMIT
NOCTURNAL FALL OF TEMP DESPITE RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST ARND -5C AT 12Z FRI.
FRI...UPR MI IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER AXIS OF LOWER HGTS/MID LVL
MSTR/SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF UPR LO SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE N FM CENTRAL LK SUP INTO ONTARIO. BUT ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. SUSPECT THESE SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING FORCING
DESTABILIZATION THERE AWAY FM THE COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE LKS. WHILE ANY PCPN MAY BE MAINLY SN IN THE MRNG...THIS DAYTIME
HEATING THAT LIFTS TEMPS INTO THE 40S AWAY FM LK COOLING SHOULD CHG
ANY PCPN TO RA IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE PESKY 500MB LOW STRETCHED FROM N ONTARIO THROUGH UPPER MI AT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COOL -2 TO -6C. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND CENTRAL AND E AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FROM MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH THE LIGHT W FLOW AT THE SFC AS THE
TROUGH EXITS OVER E UPPER MI. EITHER WAY...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
APPROX 10F WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE SWINGS
IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT DOES COME ABOUT
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
EXPECT BETTER WAA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SFC LOW SET UP OVER THE W DAKOTAS AND E MT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE
ELONGATED SFC RIDGE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WILL SHIFT E INTO
QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING BACK TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
BEING SLOWLY INTRODUCED W TO E LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE A LOT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SKIMMING N MN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE S
DISTURBANCE OVER IA /AT LEAST OFF THE 12Z ECMWF/. THERE ARE ENOUGH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY TO JUST GO WITH A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND AT THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT CMX THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE STABILIZING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ENDS THE SNOW FOR THE AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW
INTERVALS OF LOW CLOUDS AT THE ONSET...MVFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND VFR. DRY LLVL AIR WL DOMINATE IWD THIS FCST PERIOD AND THEY
WILL STAY VFR. SOME -SN WL CONTINUE AT SAW THIS MORNING. WITH A FVRBL
UPSLOPE N WIND... EXPECT MVFR WX TO PREDOMINATE AT THIS SITE BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRI AFTERNOON WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
431 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS MIN AND A LOW OVER NE
LAKE HURON. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH UP INTO S HUDSON BAY BY
SATURDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE W
GREAT LAKES AND TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO MONDAY AS IT LINKS UP WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING S OUT OF HUDSON BAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
EXPECT A LOW OVER THE W DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS MN
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD AND ONLY CURRENT
ADVISORY IS FOR MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AS OTHER
ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED ON THURSDAY EVENING. SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
TO RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF AND COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOWING DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND RAINFALL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES
EASTWARD. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...BETTER RAIN NOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2" PER HR DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...MD...AND VA. WITH TIME THIS MORNING...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA WITH
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS THE LATEST SUITE INDICATES TODAY/S RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MAIN REASONING
BEHIND THIS APPEARS TO BE WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/LWR OHIO VLY WHERE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN THIS
MORNING. WITH TODAY/S SUITE...MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT TWO
SEPARATE UPPER LOWS WILL FAIL TO CONSOLIDATE...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP UPPER WAVE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS FEATURE GOES NEGATIVE...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
DOWNSTREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
QUEBEC AS A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
WITH THE ABOVE SAID...OVERALL CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
RELATED PROBLEMS APPEARS TO BE WANING THIS MORNING BASED PURELY
ON THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT. THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE
STILL WON/T HAVE SOME PROBLEMS AS A GENERAL 1-2" OF RAIN STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LESSENING OF
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. WE/RE SILL EARLY IN THE GAME AND THINGS CAN CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY.
930 PM UPDATE...
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALMOST OF
SYR BGM AVP SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF FORECAST AND MODELS. THIS IS A
PRIMER WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON RIGHT BEHIND IT. WITH FLOOD WATCH
NOT IN EFFECT YET SHOULD STILL BE OKAY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DROPPED OFF. BIGGER PROBLEM ON ITS WAY WITH STEADIER RAIN MOVG N
TO MD NOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO LATE MORNING.
6 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. CELLS IN THE AREA MOVING MOSTLY NORTH SO SOME
TRAINING. UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA. WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
MOVES INTO YATES WHICH WAS HIT HARD 2 NIGHTS AGO.
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS MOIST FRONT
SLOWLY TRUDGES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. INITIAL VFR OR HIGH END MVFR
CIGS WILL DEGRADE TO FUEL ALT MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIG OR VIS
AS AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AFTER 12Z
/POSSIBLY SOONER KBGM-KELM/. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH THUNDER TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS...MAINLY JUST A SOLID RAIN. INITIAL SE FLOW WILL VEER SW TO
WNW WITH TIME WITH SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...SEE
TAFS FOR SPECIFICS ON TIMING. ALSO...KELM AND KRME MARGINAL LLWS EARLY
THIS MORNING DUE TO SOUTHERLY 40 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL VERSUS ESE OR
VARIABLE WIND AT SURFACE. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS END BUT
MVFR CIG SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS INTO EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT MORNING.
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO -SHRA.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
8 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES
OF HALF AN INCH AN HOUR DUE TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT A
FEW HEADWATER RIVER POINTS FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. MOST PRONE AREA
FOR FF IS THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-
047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-
044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-
055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOWING DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND RAINFALL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES
EASTWARD. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...BETTER RAIN NOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2" PER HR DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...MD...AND VA. WITH TIME THIS MORNING...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA WITH
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS THE LATEST SUITE INDICATES TODAY/S RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MAIN REASONING
BEHIND THIS APPEARS TO BE WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/LWR OHIO VLY WHERE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN THIS
MORNING. WITH TODAY/S SUITE...MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT TWO
SEPARATE UPPER LOWS WILL FAIL TO CONSOLIDATE...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP UPPER WAVE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS FEATURE GOES NEGATIVE...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
DOWNSTREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
QUEBEC AS A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
WITH THE ABOVE SAID...OVERALL CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
RELATED PROBLEMS APPEARS TO BE WANING THIS MORNING BASED PURELY
ON THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT. THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE
STILL WON/T HAVE SOME PROBLEMS AS A GENERAL 1-2" OF RAIN STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LESSENING OF
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. WE/RE SILL EARLY IN THE GAME AND THINGS CAN CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY.
930 PM UPDATE...
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALMOST OF
SYR BGM AVP SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF FORECAST AND MODELS. THIS IS A
PRIMER WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON RIGHT BEHIND IT. WITH FLOOD WATCH
NOT IN EFFECT YET SHOULD STILL BE OKAY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DROPPED OFF. BIGGER PROBLEM ON ITS WAY WITH STEADIER RAIN MOVG N
TO MD NOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO LATE MORNING.
6 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. CELLS IN THE AREA MOVING MOSTLY NORTH SO SOME
TRAINING. UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA. WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
MOVES INTO YATES WHICH WAS HIT HARD 2 NIGHTS AGO.
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRT DISC DUE TO ONGOING WX AND EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
MOISTURE MVG INTO THE AREA HAD OF A COLD FNT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
IN THE AREA OVRNGT...WITH OPCNL IFR LATE AS HEAVY PCPN MVES IN.
ALSO...VSBYS WILL DROP AS PCPN MVES INTO THE AREA. ISLTD TRW PSBL
IN ELM THIS EVE...OTRW...MOST HEAVIER CONV WILL WAIT INTIL AFT 12Z
AS THE FNT APRCHS. SE WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME SWLY AS IT
APCHS...THEN WLY BHD THE FNT ON FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES
OF HALF AN INCH AN HOUR DUE TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT A
FEW HEADWATER RIVER POINTS FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. MOST PRONE AREA
FOR FF IS THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-
047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-
044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-
055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...
TONIGHT: A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.... VERY SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. DISTURBANCES IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE
SUCH DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH/LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS FAST
APPROACHING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA AT AROUND 850 MB IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A PATCH OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT... AND PORTIONS OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
LATEST HRRR EVEN TRIES TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING
FROM THE 6 TO 10 KFT CIGS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE VERY EARLY
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THUS...
WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
THE 850 MB 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC (WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD). ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT S/W AS WELL. THUS..
THINK WE WILL SEE PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY... EVEN
OVERCAST... OVERNIGHT. THUS... WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... WITH SOME LOW TEMPS OCCURRING
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. -BSD
SUN AND SUN NIGHT: THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN
SD WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUN.
ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES...AND RESULT IN THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NC FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. NWP
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY POOR AGREEMENT FOR A 18-24 HR
FORECAST...WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS STILL THE WETTER AND FARTHER
NORTH SOLUTIONS (0.25-0.50") ACROSS SOUTHERN NC...VERSUS THE NON-
AMERICAN MODEL CONSENSUS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FAY-CTZ-GSB VICINITIES. CANNOT FIND ANY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MASS OR MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN THE
DIFFERING PARENT MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS...SO WILL RETAIN THE GENERAL
"BLEND" SOLUTION OF RECENT DAYS. IF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN INDEED
MATERIALIZE...TEMPERATURES UNIFORMLY IN THE 65-68 DEGREE RANGE WILL
BE LIKELY.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING IN SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL
RESULT...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. -MWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
THE WORK WEEK STARTS OFF ON A SUNNY AND DRY...BUT PLEASANTLY MILD
NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT RETURN FLOW LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID T0 UPPER 70S AFTER A MORNING LOW IN
THE UPPER 40S. MODIFIED AIRMASS AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MILDER MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE
OUR CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE SO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AIDED BY SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGING
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER JET TO EDGE SOUTH AND REDIRECT IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ENHANCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (LATEST GFS PROGS >7C/KM)...IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TRENDED POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
60 TO 65 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
A MID LEVEL DECK BASED AROUND 6000FT WAS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT 00Z. THIS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD COVER MOST OF
THE PIEDMONT BY 03Z-04Z. AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
MID LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 10000FT. MECHANISMS FOR LIFT ARE
EITHER WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT...THUS THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
ANY CLEARING THAT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THIS DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER SO CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE THICKER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IN VICINITY OF THE KFAY TERMINAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. SINKING AIR
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF VFR CONDITIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY...TEH THREAT FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MIDDAY UPDATE TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATE TO EXPIRE FREEZE WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...DIMINISHING SHOWERS
EXPECTED WEST THIS MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TOWARD MOTT AND LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SINCE THEY HAD
THE TREND WELL COVERED.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
HEADLINE NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND THINK THE EXPIRATION AT 8 AM LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. WELL DEFINED EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KDIK-
KHEI. WELL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH
15Z...GRADUALLY ENDING CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE S/WV HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. WHILE HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE REMAIN AT 40F...EASTERN
BURLEIGH COUNTY (STERLING) WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HAS FALLEN TO
31F. THUS OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY PASSING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE STABILIZE BY
SUNDOWN.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER SET
OF FROST HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT H5 ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN MONTANA. MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS...NEAR 50 PERCENT...TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS IS LOWER BY
MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE STORM MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE
DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND MONDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEK SHOULD
NOT BE A WASH-OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS OF ECMWF...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER AT KISN/KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
815 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATE TO EXPIRE FREEZE WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...DIMINISHING SHOWERS
EXPECTED WEST THIS MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TOWARD MOTT AND LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SINCE THEY HAD
THE TREND WELL COVERED.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
HEADLINE NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND THINK THE EXPIRATION AT 8 AM LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. WELL DEFINED EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KDIK-
KHEI. WELL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH
15Z...GRADUALLY ENDING CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE S/WV HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. WHILE HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE REMAIN AT 40F...EASTERN
BURLEIGH COUNTY (STERLING) WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HAS FALLEN TO
31F. THUS OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY PASSING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE STABILIZE BY
SUNDOWN.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER SET
OF FROST HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT H5 ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN MONTANA. MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS...NEAR 50 PERCENT...TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS IS LOWER BY
MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE STORM MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE
DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND MONDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEK SHOULD
NOT BE A WASH-OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS OF ECMWF...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION IS KDIK WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
HAVE MVFR VIS IN A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
REFLECTED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING
GROUP AT THIS POINT. THE SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TOWARD MOTT AND LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SINCE THEY HAD
THE TREND WELL COVERED.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
HEADLINE NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND THINK THE EXPIRATION AT 8 AM LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. WELL DEFINED EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KDIK-
KHEI. WELL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH
15Z...GRADUALLY ENDING CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE S/WV HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. WHILE HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE REMAIN AT 40F...EASTERN
BURLEIGH COUNTY (STERLING) WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HAS FALLEN TO
31F. THUS OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY PASSING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE STABILIZE BY
SUNDOWN.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER SET
OF FROST HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT H5 ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN MONTANA. MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS...NEAR 50 PERCENT...TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS IS LOWER BY
MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE STORM MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE
DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND MONDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEK SHOULD
NOT BE A WASH-OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS OF ECMWF...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION IS KDIK WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
HAVE MVFR VIS IN A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
REFLECTED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING
GROUP AT THIS POINT. THE SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST SOME LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED
HOURLY TREND TO MATCH. NO CHANGES AT THIS LATE HOUR TO FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.
INCREASED POPS A BIT WITH CIGS LOWERING ACROSS THE WEST ALONG WITH
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN. 04-05Z RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR...SO FOLLOWED ITS LEAD INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST 08Z-14Z.
DESPITE SPC LEAVING OUT OUR AREA IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK...OPTED TO
MENTION ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MU CAPE 200 TO NEAR 500 J/KG ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FAR WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-01 UTC RAP/HRRR...AND REMAINING 18
AND INCOMING 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITES...DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE LOWER 40S UNDER INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT TO CHANCE MENTION FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST...ENTERING AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAINFALL TO EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINES CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
OTHER THAN TO UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT IS WELL ON
TRACK. BASED UPON THE 23 UTC RAP/HRRR...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST BY 06-07 UTC. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MAY CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
A CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE MONDAK AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST 18Z
RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ENCROACHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. THUS
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST. STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO DRY OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
REMAINING OVER THE MONDAK AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...
AFTERNOON HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TONIGHT. WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL...WE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH
A FROST ADVISORY EXTENDING WEST A ROW OF COUNTIES. WEST OF THIS
AREA WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WITH MINIMAL RISK OF
FROST. ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CENTRAL AND
EASTERN
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
OVERALL TREND IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED TREND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 PATTERN SIMILAR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING AFTER MONDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN
CONTROL WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY...LOCATED NEAR A CROSBY/TIOGA
SOUTH TO DICKINSON LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MINOR
SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OVER THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE SECOND IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL INITIATE AND DEEPEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCING
WITH THIS WIND FLOW ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION LEADING TO MOSTLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BUFKIT KISN/KDIK SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS K-INDICES RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL
COME TOGETHER MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF SWEEPS THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER THE 12Z IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND REDEVELOPS MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE SEEN WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO DEVELOP RIDGING OUT AHEAD
OF A SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ARGUE FOR A
DRIER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS KEEPS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA PRIMARILY IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH LEADS TO
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE ALLBLEND IS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH A SLIGHT CHC
TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS...AND HAVE NOT
DEVIATED FROM THIS AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH AND LOWS
WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12-14Z FOR KDIK...AND PERHAPS FOR KISN THROUGH 09Z. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003-
011-019>021-034-042-045.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR REGION USHERING IN COOLER
DRIER AIR. THE SLOW MOVING DEEP TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST OVER
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER TO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING OUT...AND BECOMING VERY LIGHT. RUC HAS THIS TREND WELL
HANDLED AND WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TRYING TO
BREAK UP OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE SC MTS...BUT THE UPSTREAM
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO PBZ CWA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REST OF THE
WEST VERY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...BUT THE SUN WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE IN ALL
BUT THE SC MTS TODAY. TEMPS DOING WELL...SO NO BIG TWEAKS THERE.
SEE HYDRO.
PREV...
A SLOW MOVING...WAVY COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. STRONG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE
UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ARE
SURGING INTO THE REGION ON A SSE LOW-MID LEVEL LEVEL JET OF
40-60KTS.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5"
RESULTS...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN FALLING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
AS WAVES OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RACE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RUC TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOWS IT CLEARING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
COULD HANG UP OVER SERN PA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF MY MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
COUNTIES.
SOME ABNORMALLY CHILLY AIR IS SLATED TO COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS OVER NW PA FALLING FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 40S POSSIBLE
BEFORE A SMALL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S TAKES PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THE DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PASSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS GROSS AS IT MAY
BE...850 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO IN THE WEST BY 12Z...SO I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME NORMAL COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE A WET SNOW
FLAKE OR TWO MIX IN. I DON`T SEE IT AS BEING ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO MENTION SO IT WILL NOT FIND ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
STAGE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL. DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH
STILL CYCLONIC ALOFT. SHOULD BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND FROST LIKELY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS
CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. SUSPECT FROST ADVISORIES COULD COME INTO
PLAY SHOULD THIS PATTERN AND FORECAST HOLD UP. TOO EARLY AT THIS
TIME.
GENERALLY COOL AND DRY SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MODEST MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WED-THU TIME FRAME AS A BIG RIDGE WITH CLOSE 5880 M HIGH
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN US...SUSPECT A HEAT WAVE/HEAT EPISODE WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL US. WE WILL BE ON FRINGE OF RIDGE AND WARMER
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PATTERN TO IMPLY CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU NOTHING BIG AND NOTHING EXCITING AT
THIS TIME.
OF INTEREST IS THE SURGE OF HIGH CAPE IN THE GEFS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION ON WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS HIGH
CAPE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A EARLY WARM SEASON SEVERE TYPE.
THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE WEAK AS IS CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH
THE LAKES.
IT SHOULD COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY THU-SAT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
STATES WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA
STRENGTHENS AND RETROGRADES.
SO LONG RANGE WILL START OUT ON COOL SIDE SOME FROST POSSIBLE
SUN-TUE IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS. INCREASE CHANCE SHOWERS WED
INTO EARLY THURSDAY THEN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER AS WE ENTER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
TWEAKS MADE ONLY TO END TIMING OF THE RAIN AS IT HAS MOVED TO THE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR LNS. IT WILL DRAG IT/S FEET THERE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE
EVEN VFR AT MDT AND AOO...BUT BFD SANK BACK TO IFR UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW/STRATUS. ONLY JST MAY ALSO DO THAT FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTN...BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR CIGS
BY 18-19Z.
PREV...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN NOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THUS WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
OVERALL...A SE FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR IS KEEPING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOES MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
STILL BE SLOW TO MOVE REAL FAST. IT MAY BE 21Z UNTIL THINGS
IMPROVE AT LNS.
THUS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS VERY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA..WITH 4-5 BULLSEYE OVER ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THE FLOODING CONTINUES THERE...BUT NEW FLOODING WHICH HAS NOT
ALREADY BEEN WARNED-FOR IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SO...KILLED THE FF
WATCH FOR THE AREA. THE RAIN IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND ONLY
DRAGGING IT/S FEET IN THE FAR ERN COS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME EAST SHOULD BE A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
FLOODING HAS COMMENCED ON THE TRIBS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND
SHIRLEYSBURG. FOUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS GOING AT THIS POINT...AND
PERHAPS ONLY THE OTHER POINT TO EXCEED FLOOD WOULD BE THE SLOWER-
RESPONDING HOGESTOWN GAGE. THE BEECH CREEK AND RUSSELL GAGES ARE
MAINLY CONTROLLED BY UPSTREAM DAMS...AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD. BUT THESE ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. NO LARGE-RIVER POINTS SHOULD GET TO FLOOD...MANY TO
CAUTION STAGES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DANGELO/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MILDER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING OUT...AND BECOMING VERY LIGHT. RUC HAS THIS TREND WELL
HANDLED AND WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TRYING TO
BREAK UP OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE SC MTS...BUT THE UPSTREAM
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO PBZ CWA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REST OF THE
WEST VERY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...BUT THE SUN WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE IN ALL
BUT THE SC MTS TODAY. TEMPS DOING WELL...SO NO BIG TWEAKS THERE.
SEE HYDRO.
PREV...
A SLOW MOVING...WAVY COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. STRONG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE
UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ARE
SURGING INTO THE REGION ON A SSE LOW-MID LEVEL LEVEL JET OF
40-60KTS.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5"
RESULTS...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN FALLING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
AS WAVES OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RACE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RUC TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOWS IT CLEARING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
COULD HANG UP OVER SERN PA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF MY MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
COUNTIES.
SOME ABNORMALLY CHILLY AIR IS SLATED TO COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS OVER NW PA FALLING FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 40S POSSIBLE
BEFORE A SMALL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S TAKES PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THE DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PASSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS GROSS AS IT MAY
BE...850 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO IN THE WEST BY 12Z...SO I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME NORMAL COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE A WET SNOW
FLAKE OR TWO MIX IN. I DON`T SEE IT AS BEING ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO MENTION SO IT WILL NOT FIND ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
STAGE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL. DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SLIGHT REBOUND IN UPPER HEIGHTS TAKES
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MILDER AIR.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME
STRATOCU AND SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN MONDAY BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE AND THE LOW LIFTS
OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HEADLINES AS NWRN AREAS SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT THE
THINKING NOW IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO THWART FROST
FORMATION.
MILDER AIR SHOULD MAKE A RETURN STARTING ABOUT TUESDAY...BUT WE
WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WE THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES APPROACH AND WE BECOME VULNERABLE TO
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING OVER FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
TWEAKS MADE ONLY TO END TIMING OF THE RAIN AS IT HAS MOVED TO THE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR LNS. IT WILL DRAG IT/S FEET THERE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE
EVEN VFR AT MDT AND AOO...BUT BFD SANK BACK TO IFR UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW/STRATUS. ONLY JST MAY ALSO DO THAT FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTN...BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR CIGS
BY 18-19Z.
PREV...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN NOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THUS WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
OVERALL...A SE FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR IS KEEPING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOES MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
STILL BE SLOW TO MOVE REAL FAST. IT MAY BE 21Z UNTIL THINGS
IMPROVE AT LNS.
THUS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS VERY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA..WITH 4-5 BULLSEYE OVER ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THEFLOODING CONTINUES THERE...BUT NEW FLOODING WHICH HAS NOT
ALREADY BEEN WARNED-FOR IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SO...KILLED THE FF
WATCH FOR THE AREA. THE RAIN IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND ONLY
DRAGGING IT/S FEET IN THE FAR ERN COS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME EAST SHOULD BE A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
FLOODING HAS COMMENCED ON THE TRIBS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND
SHIRLEYSBURG. FOUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS GOING AT THIS POINT...AND
PERHAPS ONLY THE OTHER POINT TO EXCEED FLOOD WOULD BE THE SLOWER-
RESPONDING HOGESTOWN GAGE. THE BEECH CREEK AND RUSSELL GAGES ARE
MAINLY CONTROLLED BY UPSTREAM DAMS...AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD. BUT THESE ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. NO LARGE-RIVER POINTS SHOULD GET TO FLOOD...MANY TO
CAUTION STAGES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST
TENNESSEE AND TRACK EASTWARD, BUT PREVIOUS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
CELLS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO WILL
LEAVE THE TAF`S DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND DEW
POINT SPREADS SHRINKING AT CKV AND CSV, WILL INCLUDE FOG
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A
TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT, WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW, SO AM
LEAVING WX OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR NOW. WATCHING ONGOING ACTIVITY
OVER WEST TENNESSEE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED, BUT
THE HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION BREAKING UP BEFORE
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MAYBE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT AT
CSV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR WX WITH GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND A SHORTWAVE ARE
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LIKE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER...CONTRARY TO OUR HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH SMALL AMOUNT.
EXPECTING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH MOST EVERYONE
SEEING AROUND A TENTH. RAINS MAY VERY WELL HOLD TOGETHER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH THE METRO AREA...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE TO DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE MORE OF THE
DAY TIME HEATING.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT IN FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE AT MID AFTERNOON WITH COLD
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BELIEVE DIURNAL
HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WILL WORK ACROSS MY CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION
OF THUNDER NORTHWEST THIRD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS
TONIGHT DOWN IN THE 40S ALL AREAS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MOSTLY IN
THE 60S. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER
CUMBERLAND AREAS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP STEEP ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THOSE
AREAS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN AND ROTATE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO HAVE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST
BEING REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S MID AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S. WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF COOL WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA...NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED BAND OF MOISTURE FROM AROUND
780 MB TO 728 MB WITH A WEST FLOW. KFCX 88D LOOP HIGHLIGHTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS PRINT OUT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EVENING INSTABILITY CLOUDS FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT. THE
TIMING OF THE MOISTURE IS FASTEST AND FURTHER NORTH ON THE ECMWF
COMPARED TO THE NAM/RAP AND GFS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. ACTUALLY RAISED DEW POINTS IN THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD WITH FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LATE NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CLEARING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. ELSEWHERE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
PIEDMONT MAY STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
THICKEN AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS OF 646 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION CREATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RNK WRFARW SHOWED A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WEST UNTIL 05Z. WEST WIND WILL HINDER ANY
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EAST BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROST FORMATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FROST ADVISORY
IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RADAR INDICATING A FEW SPRINKLES ARE SURVIVING THE
PASSAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AS THE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE ON THE LEE SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS
MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS KEEPING OUR WINDS
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...TRIGGERING LIGHT SPRINKLES MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WHICH...IF ANYTHING...WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH
TO WET THE SURFACE. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX AND THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...
BELIEVE FROST FORMATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICKER TO THE SOUTH...FROST FORMATION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST EXIST IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS...WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL DRAIN TO AND POOL.
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
AGAIN INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BRINGING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE VIRGINIA NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER. LOOKING TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES RETREATS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY..
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION. A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER
SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WITH LIGHT WIND...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIALLY LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THAT EXPECTED TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL OVER A GENEROUS PORTION OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV AND BATH COUNTY VA. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.
ELSEWHERE...FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO LESS
CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE NEW RIVER VALLEY/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
AS WE PROGRESS INTO A SOUTHWEST...WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ENCOUNTER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH IMPACT THE SYSTEM
HAS ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
OFFER ISOLATE SHOWERS NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF WV AND VA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER...AND STRONGER...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND ACT AS THE
CATALYST TO ALLOW A TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR
REGION TO ONE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS NEW REGIME WILL ALSO PLACE A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER...OR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN CLEAR WITH DAILY CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ALSO...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRONE TO WELCOMING ANY
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE VARY FROM SYSTEM
TO SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...BUT TAKE A SLOW TURN COOLER AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE FORECAST...AND THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS SHIFT WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UNSTABLE/NW CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST REGION
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING INSTABILITY CLOUDS FROM COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT. WHILE SOME VIRGA MAY BE NEAR KDAN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AFT 18Z MON. IN ITS
WAKE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CU DEVELOPING AND SCT CI REMAINING AS A RESULT OF
UPPER TROUGHING. EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z AS UPSLOPE W-NW SFC FLOW DIMINISHES.
OVERALL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH VSBYS REMAINING VFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE W-NW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EARLIER STRONGER SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING EAST
TOWARD PA/NY/MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WIND DIR WILL START TO COME
AROUND TO THE NE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY REMAIN NW-NNW
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFT DAYBREAK SUN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING MAINLY VFR FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TOWARD MID-WEEK AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED-FRI. RIGHT NOW...WED AND THU APPEAR TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS
FOR CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTER SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...WHEN BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
834 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...SKIES HAVE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED FILLING ALONG THE COAST. BIT OF
EXCITEMENT INLAND. HAVE SEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE DEFINED MARINE
SURGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY...AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES MUCH
HIGHER. THIS DENSE AIR IS PUSHING DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTO THE
CASCADES. DO HAVE OTHER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
OVER THE CASCADES...AGAIN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MARINE LAYER. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END BY 1030 PM. AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH SHOWERS THAT ARE OFFSHORE PUSHING INLAND.
REST OF FORECAST/TRENDS REMAINS UNCHANGED.
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A ITS CENTER WEST OF 130W. ONE WEAK
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WE ARE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH THAT MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE 65 TO 70 RANGE TODAY INLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT RIGHT NOW THE MOST ARE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WILL MONITOR ANY CHANCES OF SEEING THUNDER LATER TODAY
OR THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
THE NEXT DECENT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE HAS CROSSED INSIDE OF 130W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL MORE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A DECENT SLUG
OF QPF. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
COMMA CLOUD BAND AROUND THE LOW CENTER ITSELF THAT IS NOW BETWEEN
130W AND 135W IS FORECAST TO SWING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS
INSIDE 130W AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS ALOFT AT
500 MB FALL TO MINUS 22 TO MINUS 23 DEG C ON SUNDAY...AND THUS
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
ANY THUNDER WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM IT GETS SUNDAY AND HOW SOLID THE
CLOUDS ARE. RIGHT NOW IT MAY BE PRETTY CLOUDY AND IT WILL PROBABLY
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH...BUT WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER.
THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE SUN BREAKS TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE STILL BEING UNDER THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
LOW.
THE LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
WANING...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS INLAND MAY PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER
70S AGAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES DURING THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE CASCADES WILL SEE
SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA ON TUE...AND WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE U.S. SOUTHWEST BY TUE NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PAC NW FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
THU. THIS SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
ON WED AND THU. IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL TRY TO SWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE REGION FRI
AND SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE
FROM THESE WAVES. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE
12Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE MORE OR LESS IN PLACE AND KEEPS THINGS MAINLY
DRY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
FRI AND SAT. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN IN THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN KCVO AND KUAO AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE
INCREASING MVFR STRATUS AND RAIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...WHILE MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY AFTER
08Z TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS FRONT PROGRESSES. A MIX OF
HIGH- END IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT
SUN...WHILE MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUN WITH RAIN
CONTINUING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUN.
MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND 08Z SUN AS FRONT
ARRIVES. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH SUN BUT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGH-END MVFR TO LOWER VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON. CULLEN/27
&&
.MARINE...THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL
MOVE S AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...AND
BE LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER BY LATE SUN
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY S WINDS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE OFF THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST SUN EVENING AS THE LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS. HIGH PRES REBUILDS OFFSHORE LATER MON...AND N WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK WITH GUSTY 25 KT WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 FT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WIND-
DOMINATED AND CHOPPY AT TIMES. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
637 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to break down through tonight, while
low pressure migrates Inland for Sunday and early next week.
The weather will remain unsettled from this evening through the
first part of next week, with showers and a threat of
thunderstorms accompanying cooler temperatures. The shower threat
wanes and temperatures moderate towards the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sent out a forecast update late/early this afternoon/evening
mainly to increase precip chances across the northern mountains
from the Okanogan Highlands over to the Northern Panhandle. A weak
wave pushing across eastern WA will keep these showers persisting
through this evening. Forcing with this wave will push east of the
region overnight with showers waning after about 9:00-10:00 PM.
The next disturbance circulating around the upper level low
pressure system offshore will begin to move into the Inland
Northwest late tonight into early Sunday. This energy is expected
to interact with some instability at mid levels across southeast
WA and into the central ID Panhandle. This will result in
increasing mid level cloud cover with a chance for showers by
early Sunday morning. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will remain off the
west coast through Sunday. One piece of energy is rotating around
this upper level low into eastern WA this evening. This will
bring a chance for rain showers across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
taf sites with thunderstorms possible across the northern mtns.
Showers and thunderstorms will wane overnight then ramp back up
again through late Sunday morning into the afternoon as another
spindle of energy pushes through. Showers on Sunday will bring a
risk for thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to include in
the tafs at this time. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 64 43 64 43 70 / 20 50 50 50 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 43 63 40 63 40 69 / 30 60 60 50 30 20
Pullman 43 62 41 64 40 67 / 10 60 50 40 20 20
Lewiston 48 68 46 71 44 72 / 20 50 40 30 20 20
Colville 42 68 41 67 41 76 / 90 60 60 50 30 20
Sandpoint 41 62 41 62 38 69 / 70 50 60 60 40 20
Kellogg 42 61 41 62 41 68 / 20 60 60 50 40 20
Moses Lake 46 72 46 72 46 77 / 10 20 20 30 10 0
Wenatchee 50 71 48 71 50 77 / 0 20 20 20 10 0
Omak 43 70 42 70 42 77 / 30 30 30 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
454 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to break down through tonight, while
low pressure migrates Inland for Sunday and early next week.
The weather will remain unsettled from this evening through the
first part of next week, with showers and a threat of
thunderstorms accompanying cooler temperatures. The shower threat
wanes and temperatures moderate towards the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow...A large area of low pressure continues to
influence the forecast area into tomorrow. Shortwave disturbance
rotating along the edges of this large upper level low have the
capability to eject northward in a negative tilt and utilize the
cool conditionally unstable airmass contained in the low to kick
off showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two primarily in the
afternoon and evening hours. Overnight hours could see a shower or
two if a strong enough shortwaves passes through but the most
current HRRR models are not too keen on it happening in any big
way. Otherwise as the center of the low drifts closer to the
region forecast temperatures will continue do show a slight
cooling trend which is most apparent in the forecast high
temperatures. /Pelatti
Sunday Nt through Tuesday: Sunday Nt and Monday will be similar
synoptic-wise as Ern Wa and N Idaho remain under a
shearing/weakening upper trough axis with tough to nail down
nearly mesoscale vort maxes embedded within the trough. This
regime still leads to a chance of showers and isolated
thunder...especially each afternoon. For Monday Nt and Tuesday...
short-wave ridging/rising heights aloft begin a stabilizing trend
across the zones near the Canadian border of Wa. However...most
guidance is also bringing a weak vort max south through the Idaho
Panhandle Monday Nt and Tues. Because of this, we continued the
threat of showers into Tues for all but the Upper Columbia Basin.
The CAPE/deep lyr shear profiles don`t look sufficient to produce
strong thunderstorms in this mostly diurnally-driven convection
pattern. bz
Tuesday night through Saturday...A westerly zonal flow pattern
will dominate the middle to end of the week. A flat ridge
Wednesday and Thursday should result in dry conditions except for
a slight chance of a few lingering showers over the Idaho
Panhandle mountains on Wednesday. For Friday and Saturday there is
good model agreement of a short wave tracking through the region
on Friday followed by possibly another one for Saturday. However
precise strength of these features are in question with not a lot
of model consistency. The ECMWF has been the stronger solution
over the past couple runs which would support higher
precipitation chances while the GFS would favor a chance for
mainly mountain showers. Given the uncertainty forecast favors
climatological chances for rain showers (ie 15-30% for most
areas). JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will remain off the
west coast through Sunday. One piece of energy is rotating around
this upper level low into eastern WA this evening. This will
bring a chance for rain showers across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
taf sites with thunderstorms possible across the northern mtns.
Showers and thunderstorms will wane overnight then ramp back up
again through late Sunday morning into the afternoon as another
spindle of energy pushes through. Showers on Sunday will bring a
risk for thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to include in
the tafs at this time. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 64 43 64 43 70 / 20 50 50 50 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 43 63 40 63 40 69 / 20 60 60 50 30 20
Pullman 43 62 41 64 40 67 / 20 60 50 40 20 20
Lewiston 48 68 46 71 44 72 / 20 50 40 30 20 20
Colville 42 68 41 67 41 76 / 40 60 60 50 30 20
Sandpoint 41 62 41 62 38 69 / 30 50 60 60 40 20
Kellogg 42 61 41 62 41 68 / 30 60 60 50 40 20
Moses Lake 46 72 46 72 46 77 / 10 20 20 30 10 0
Wenatchee 50 71 48 71 50 77 / 10 20 20 20 10 0
Omak 43 70 42 70 42 77 / 30 30 30 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.UPDATE...ISOLD -SHRA HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING INTO NWRN CWA
ATTM. -SHRA ASSOCD WITH WEAK TROF AXIS WITH EXITS SRN WI AROUND
06Z. CARRIED ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS S CENTRAL WI NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
EXPC DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND DRY
LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWERED
KBUU A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH KMSN
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING A -SHRA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS BARELY MEET LLWS THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT
MENTION IN KMSN TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAKE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN MN. THE CLOUD
LAYER OVER THE REGION IS THIN PER RAP SOUNDINGS...INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...AND THE AIR BELOW 7000 FEET IS VERY DRY. SCATTERED SPRINKLES
ARE APPARENT ON RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THE MN CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES WILL SWING THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. WITH 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO
THE LOWER 40S AND NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MKX FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ONCE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES AGAIN BUT NOTHING MORE. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND
MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS MONDAY...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING WEAK
UPWARD 700 MB MOTION. THE 700 MB LAYER IS DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE 700 MB LAYER SATURATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LAYER STAYS RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...INCREASING ONLY THE THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN
THOUGH THE 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 35 KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET IS ACROSS MISSOURI TO
MINNESOTA. THERE IS NO ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...BUT THE 12Z NAM
IS DRY...EXCEPT WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE RATHER COOL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH A MAINLY WEST/SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER JET ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE.
WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AROUND NOON. 700 MB RH IS SATURATED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH 35 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8 TO 10 CELSIUS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT COOL ON TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE SAGS SOUTH ACROSS
ILLINOIS.
THE NAM DOES GENERATE 650 TO 1100 JOULES/KG OF CAPE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES PUSHES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY....WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER REGION. AGAIN EXPECT A SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE
RATHER COOL.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADA BORDER REGION IN THE ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST NORTHWEST BEFORE A
RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER WISCONSIN SATURDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO IT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH JUST A
HUNDRETH OR SO OF PRECIPITATION ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS AND
06Z DGEX REMAIN DRY WHICH IS PREFERRED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SITTING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
35 KNOTS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FEET AGL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
704 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WAS MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS RIDGING WAS
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE POSITION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
PLACES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RETURNS
NOTED ON RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE
ENHANCE CUMULUS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. SOME OF THESE
LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE SHOULDN/T HAVE FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND FROST WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/BLACK HILLS AREA. PLAN ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 28 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
NORTH F THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...HELPING TO EFFECTIVELY CAP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THE LOW THEN SLIDES OVER
FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO BUILD SOME SURFACE
BASED CAPE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES COULD APPROACH 1300 J/KG. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING BUT THERE ISN/T
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THESE AREAS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING SO THIS MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND ON SATURDAY BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING OCCURRING
CAUSING SOME WIND GUSTS AT THE AIRFIELDS FROM LATE MORNING ON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. LONGWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TODAY...EACH
HELPING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH RIDGING WILL BUILDING ALOFT.
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT THE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COPIOUS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP INHIBIT
INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY.
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SHOULD RECEIVE SOME GOOD
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...THUS MORE HEATING. WITH A SECOND PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
GOOD INVERTED V STRUCTURE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR ISOL/SCT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. WITH RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND IN TERMS OF THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE THESE
VALUES WOULD BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR MID TO LATE MAY...IT WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
BY FRIDAY THOUGH...THE RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH A BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHWARD...COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
GONE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HRRR WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHRA. THE ONE
THING THAT MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED IN LATER UPDATES IS THE
TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE TSRA. HRRR ISNT INDICATING MUCH OF A CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY THE COPIOUS
CLOUD COVER EARLY ON. MCN/CSG MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONGER/BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ATL.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 50 75 55 / 60 10 10 0
ATLANTA 70 52 76 60 / 60 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 58 44 72 52 / 60 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 64 50 77 56 / 60 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 79 57 81 62 / 40 20 10 5
GAINESVILLE 60 49 74 57 / 60 10 10 0
MACON 80 55 78 58 / 50 20 10 5
ROME 65 50 78 56 / 60 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 72 52 77 55 / 60 10 10 0
VIDALIA 83 59 78 61 / 40 40 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED
BY SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST WAVE
CROSSED NORTH GA THIS MORNING AND WAS CURRENTLY IN THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GA/TN BORDER. THE NEXT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO GA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
BUT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IMPULSE SHOULD SINK INTO CENTRAL GA AND WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
KEPT THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND OF MAX/MIN NUMBERS. CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON SUNDAY.
41
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A QUICK GLANCE AT
THE 00Z GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS DISPLAY THAT MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS
AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DOWN THE EASTERN ZONES
TO ACCOUNT FOR HPC GUIDANCE AND QPF FORECASTS FROM THE LONG RANGE
MODELS. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED BELOW.
ARG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAIL END THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED SO INITIALLY HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART...RIDGING DOMINATES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...BUT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THESE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. ONE WAVE IS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO NORTH GEORGIA ON FRIDAY...SO JUST A MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
GONE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HRRR WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHRA. THE ONE
THING THAT MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED IN LATER UPDATES IS THE TIMING/COVERAGE
OF THE TSRA. HRRR ISNT INDICATING MUCH OF A CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY THE COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER EARLY ON. MCN/CSG MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONGER/BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ATL.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 51 77 53 / 60 10 10 5
ATLANTA 70 54 76 57 / 60 10 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 64 46 72 48 / 60 10 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 65 50 77 53 / 60 10 10 5
COLUMBUS 80 58 81 59 / 40 20 10 5
GAINESVILLE 65 52 74 54 / 60 10 10 5
MACON 79 54 80 55 / 50 20 10 5
ROME 67 50 79 53 / 60 10 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 72 52 78 54 / 60 10 10 5
VIDALIA 83 59 80 58 / 40 40 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO TRACK INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME
PATCHY FROST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...AND THE
BEGINNING OF A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69. A FAIRLY COMPACT VORT MAX PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/22Z RAP ANALYSIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE AREA OVER
NEXT HOUR WITH STRONGEST DPVA ALREADY HAVING SHIFTED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS OF 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN FOR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FROST CONCERNS.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND GIVEN
WEAK NATURE TO ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES...HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LESS CLOUDINESS FOR LATE EVENING. EARLIER CLEARING
TREND AND POSITION OF SFC RIDGE DOES LEND SOME CONCERN AS TO FROST
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DUE TO EXPECTED
POSITION OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND
WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN
TERMS OF TEMPS. WILL ALSO BE ISSUING A LATE EVENING UPDATE TO
REMOVE ISOLD SHOWER WORDING FROM THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROF AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER NRN INDIANA AND SW
LOWER MICHIGAN AS LIMITED DAY TIME HEATING WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/FCST EARLIER TO INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ADD SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME WARMING AT LEVELS ABOVE 700 MB
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...EXTREMELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
ADDITION TO WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
ENOUGH WITH LOW CAPES...BUT ALSO WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SMALL HAIL. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
HAIL JUST BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE MID LEVEL WARMING AND THE
LATEST CC/ZDR ON THE DUAL POL RADAR SUPPORTED JUST RAIN AT THE
SURFACE. ALSO...HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY MORE HAIL REPORTS SINCE THIS
MORNING. THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN WERE MOSTLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO EXPECTED OVERALL COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A
SECOND UPPER TROF WAS ENTERING NRN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD RACE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIMITED CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE
GFS/MAV AND NAM/MET HAVE BEEN DOING REASONABLY WELL THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FOLLOW. EXPANDED PATCHY FROST TONIGHT
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
UPR RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH LINGERS
OVER OH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES WITH TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 20F FROM AFTN HIGHS
TO LOWS IN THE L-M40S.
UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY PROVIDING A
CONTINUATION TO THE WARMING TREND. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTN BUT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MIXING/WAA
SHOULD COMPENSATE ALLOWING FOR RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RISE WITH HIGHS
IN THE L70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
LEAD SHRTWV AHEAD OF DIGGING WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT-TUE CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE
ACROSS OUR CWA. RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FROPA WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY... BUT CAPPING
AROUND 12KFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH SO CONTD WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS N-NE PORTION OF CWA
WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKER CAPPING EXPECTED.
SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE UPR GRTLKS WILL WEAKEN
MID LEVEL CAPPING TUE NGT AS ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP TUE NGT INTO WED AS FRONT
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S AND LOWS IN THE
L-M60S TUE-WED.
MID-WEEK RIDGE TOPPING SHRTWV EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF OVER THE NERN U.S.
AND DRIFT SLOWLY E-NE LATE WEEK WITH RIDGING CONTG IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SFC HIGH NEARLY STNRY OVER THE UPR
GRTLKS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
STABLE/FAIR WX. WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RATHER WARM MID-UPR
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DETAIL
PROVIDED PRIMARILY FOR DIURNAL VARIANCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO OFFER SOME CU DEVELOPMENT AND
WHILE BASES INITIALLY COULD BE AROUND 3KFT...INCREASING SURFACE
T/TD DEPRESSIONS TO AROUND 25-30F TO QUICKLY ALLOW BASES TO
LIFT ALONG WITH EROSION OF COVERAGE AS DRY AIR ENTRAINS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MURPHY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE ERN LAKES AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN UPPER
MI AND NW WI SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILED AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT FROM
NEAR CYGQ(GERALDTON) TO NW MN.
TODAY...EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL
QVECTOR CONV TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SHRTWV TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN. DIURNAL
HEATING WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM
SHOULD ALSO BOOST SHRA POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED. MIXING
TO 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S ALONG SHORELINE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. UNDERT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEST AND THE THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE THIS DISCUSSION ON THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND THAT WILL BE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS
AT 00Z TUESDAY AND THE LOCATION OF UPPER MI IN BETWEEN IT AND THE
EXITING SFC HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
AND RESIDE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
OF COURSE SPECIFIC QPF ESTIMATES IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS VERY
DIFFICULT...AND HIGHLY DEPENDS ON TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATIONS OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY EVENING WEST...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MI. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF NEARLY 0.5IN CWA
WIDE OVERNIGHT. THIS EQUATES TO QPF VALUES OF 0.7 TO 1IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WILL
BE INTERESTED IN SEEING HOW SOME OF THE RIVERS THAT ARE AREA.THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER W AND CENTRAL AREAS
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO THE HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND 500MB RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD RAISE SOME CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. THE
GOOD NEWS AT THIS POINT IS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD...SO CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW INSTABILITY -SHRA TODAY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING...OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS/HI LCLS WL ENSURE VFR WX
EVEN IF THE ISOLD -SHRA IMPACT ANY OF THE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE ERN LAKES AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN UPPER
MI AND NW WI SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILED AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT FROM
NEAR CYGQ(GERALDTON) TO NW MN.
TODAY...EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL
QVECTOR CONV TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SHRTWV TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN. DIURNAL
HEATING WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM
SHOULD ALSO BOOST SHRA POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED. MIXING
TO 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S ALONG SHORELINE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. UNDERT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEST AND THE THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND WEAK
295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SCT SHRA OVER
MAINLY THE ERN FCST AREA SUNDAY EVENING BUT MID-LVL RIDGING SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 40S FAR WEST.
MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
INTO SRN MANITOBA TO NRN ONTARIO WHICH WILL BRING AN 850 MB WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT TO 1.25 INCH OR MORE
THAN 175 PCT OF NORMAL) AT NOSE OF 40-45 KNOT LOW-LVL JET WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50-0.75 INCH RANGE. MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO WEST HALF OF UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON SPREADING
INTO THE EAST HALF MON NIGHT. WITH TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DESCENT
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUE WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS TUE EVENING EAST HALF. HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSRA ALONG THE WI BDR MON NIGHT WITH THUNDER CHANCES SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A POCKET OF
200-400 J/KG MUCAPE.
WED-SAT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY
START OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK WITH A STIFF NRLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRES EAST OF THE LAKE AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FM THE NW. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LIGHT NRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW INSTABILITY -SHRA TODAY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING...OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS/HI LCLS WL ENSURE VFR WX
EVEN IF THE ISOLD -SHRA IMPACT ANY OF THE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...
TONIGHT: A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.... VERY SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. DISTURBANCES IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE
SUCH DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH/LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS FAST
APPROACHING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA AT AROUND 850 MB IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A PATCH OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT... AND PORTIONS OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
LATEST HRRR EVEN TRIES TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING
FROM THE 6 TO 10 KFT CIGS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE VERY EARLY
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THUS...
WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
THE 850 MB 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC (WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD). ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT S/W AS WELL. THUS..
THINK WE WILL SEE PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY... EVEN
OVERCAST... OVERNIGHT. THUS... WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... WITH SOME LOW TEMPS OCCURRING
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. -BSD
SUN AND SUN NIGHT: THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN
SD WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUN.
ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES...AND RESULT IN THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NC FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. NWP
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY POOR AGREEMENT FOR A 18-24 HR
FORECAST...WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS STILL THE WETTER AND FARTHER
NORTH SOLUTIONS (0.25-0.50") ACROSS SOUTHERN NC...VERSUS THE NON-
AMERICAN MODEL CONSENSUS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FAY-CTZ-GSB VICINITIES. CANNOT FIND ANY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MASS OR MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN THE
DIFFERING PARENT MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS...SO WILL RETAIN THE GENERAL
"BLEND" SOLUTION OF RECENT DAYS. IF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN INDEED
MATERIALIZE...TEMPERATURES UNIFORMLY IN THE 65-68 DEGREE RANGE WILL
BE LIKELY.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING IN SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL
RESULT...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. -MWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
THE WORK WEEK STARTS OFF ON A SUNNY AND DRY...BUT PLEASANTLY MILD
NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT RETURN FLOW LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID T0 UPPER 70S AFTER A MORNING LOW IN
THE UPPER 40S. MODIFIED AIRMASS AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MILDER MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE
OUR CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE SO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AIDED BY SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGING
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER JET TO EDGE SOUTH AND REDIRECT IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ENHANCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (LATEST GFS PROGS >7C/KM)...IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TRENDED POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
60 TO 65 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN VICINITY OF THE
KFAY TERMINAL. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF/SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT KFAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SETTLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY...TEH THREAT FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
333 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN EASTWARD MOVING IMPULSE THAT WILL SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS OPPOSING MUCH OF ANY
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAVE
POPS OUT FOR TODAY AT BNA AND CKV. ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY GO WITH
30 POPS PLATEAU...60 POPS FAR SOUTH WITH LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH. THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE 4 AM ISSUANCE
BUT THAT IS THE CURRENT THINKING. OTHERWISE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. SOME SFC BASED
MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH THE EXPECTED LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS.
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EVEN WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY AREAS. AT THAT TIME...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER EAST TX WITH
A STRONG 850 MB FLOW SPREADING THE WARMTH FROM THAT AREA NE TOWARD
MIDDLE TN.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM EFFECT ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S
TO NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A NW FLOW ON SATURDAY. STILL WARM BUT TEMPS WILL
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.
AS FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES...AIRMASS TOO DRY AND CAP TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...CAP WILL WEAKEN
AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS OUR WAY FROM THE
NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 71 49 81 59 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 70 45 80 59 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 66 43 73 54 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 71 51 81 60 / 40 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 71 51 81 59 / 60 0 0 0
WAVERLY 70 47 81 59 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
307 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WITH SUBSIDENT AIR THROUGH MONDAY. MORE CLOUDS
TODAY (MAINLY IN THE MORNING)...THEN EVEN MORE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
LESS WIND TODAY THAN SATURDAY AS GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER SINCE SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY (AT LEAST PROGGED TO BE).
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AND NOT MUCH TO CHANGE...ALTHOUGH
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE
(GENERALLY ABOUT A DEGREE SOME AREAS).
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WAS GOING TO CURTAIL SCA FOR THE
GULFMEX BUT WINDS STARTED TO KICK UP. RUC WINDS NORMALLY ON THE HIGH
SIDE...BUT THIS MAY PAN OUT SINCE IT IS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND
GFS/NAM MOS SHOWS WINDS UP TIL ABOUT 12Z. THUS...SCA WILL CONTINUE
AND WILL GO TIL 12Z WITH IT. AFTER THAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT STILL AROUND SCEC AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST DURING FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 100MB DURING THAT TIME.
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING/BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY MID/LATE WEEK MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES HAVE GREATLY SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOW KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER SW
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WAS HESITANT TO JUMP ON THIS SLOWER
PROGRESSION...BUT GFS/ECMWF/AND MOST GEFS MEMBERS ALL INDICATE
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE TOWARDS A 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR WESTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
AS VORT MAXES IN H5 TO H7 LAYER ADVECT AROUND MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION. MAX/MIN
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER BY LATER IN THE WEEK TO HAVE
GREATER IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS AND STRONGER LLJ TO IMPACT MIN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 68 84 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 65 87 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
LAREDO 95 69 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
ALICE 89 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 71 81 73 84 / 0 0 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 65 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 87 66 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 71 82 72 84 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
302 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF COOL WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA...NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THIS EVENING 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED BAND OF MOISTURE FROM AROUND
780 MB TO 728 MB WITH A WEST FLOW. KFCX 88D LOOP HIGHLIGHTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS PRINT OUT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EVENING INSTABILITY CLOUDS FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT. THE
TIMING OF THE MOISTURE IS FASTEST AND FURTHER NORTH ON THE ECMWF
COMPARED TO THE NAM/RAP AND GFS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. ACTUALLY RAISED DEW POINTS IN THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD WITH FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LATE NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CLEARING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. ELSEWHERE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
PIEDMONT MAY STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
THICKEN AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS OF 646 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION CREATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RNK WRFARW SHOWED A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE WEST UNTIL 05Z. WEST WIND WILL HINDER ANY
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EAST BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROST FORMATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FROST ADVISORY
IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RADAR INDICATING A FEW SPRINKLES ARE SURVIVING THE
PASSAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AS THE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE ON THE LEE SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS
MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS KEEPING OUR WINDS
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...TRIGGERING LIGHT SPRINKLES MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WHICH...IF ANYTHING...WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH
TO WET THE SURFACE. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX AND THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...
BELIEVE FROST FORMATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICKER TO THE SOUTH...FROST FORMATION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST EXIST IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS...WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL DRAIN TO AND POOL.
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
AGAIN INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BRINGING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE VIRGINIA NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER. LOOKING TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES RETREATS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY..
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALL WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION. A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER
SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WITH LIGHT WIND...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIALLY LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THAT EXPECTED TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL OVER A GENEROUS PORTION OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY WV AND BATH COUNTY VA. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.
ELSEWHERE...FROST WILL BE VERY PATCHY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO LESS
CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE NEW RIVER VALLEY/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
AS WE PROGRESS INTO A SOUTHWEST...WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ENCOUNTER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH IMPACT THE SYSTEM
HAS ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
OFFER ISOLATE SHOWERS NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF WV AND VA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER...AND STRONGER...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND ACT AS THE
CATALYST TO ALLOW A TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR
REGION TO ONE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS NEW REGIME WILL ALSO PLACE A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER...OR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN CLEAR WITH DAILY CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ALSO...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRONE TO WELCOMING ANY
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE VARY FROM SYSTEM
TO SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...BUT TAKE A SLOW TURN COOLER AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE FORECAST...AND THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS SHIFT WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION SITS
UNDER A LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH BASES
RANGING FROM 4KFT TO 7KFT...LOW END VFR. CLOUD COVER IS DOING A
GOOD JOB OF INSULATING THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER
WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IS
PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY DROPS.
FOR TODAY...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH KDAN AT MOST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN SCT TO BKN STRATOCU THROUGH
THE DAY INTO LATE EVENING AREAWIDE. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OHIO...A FINGER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING...TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS SPEEDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING MAINLY VFR FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TOWARD MID-WEEK AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED-FRI. RIGHT NOW...WED AND THU APPEAR TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS
FOR CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...WHEN BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WAS MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS RIDGING WAS
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE POSITION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
PLACES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RETURNS
NOTED ON RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE
ENHANCE CUMULUS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. SOME OF THESE
LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE SHOULDN/T HAVE FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND FROST WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/BLACK HILLS AREA. PLAN ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 28 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
NORTH F THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...HELPING TO EFFECTIVELY CAP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THE LOW THEN SLIDES OVER
FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO BUILD SOME SURFACE
BASED CAPE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES COULD APPROACH 1300 J/KG. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING BUT THERE ISN/T
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THESE AREAS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING SO THIS MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND ON SATURDAY BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
MORNING AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION...LOOK ON OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE. CLICK ON THE NEWS STORY AT THE TOP OF
THE PAGE PERTAINING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
500 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS COLORADO. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPS SOMEWHAT MILD AS OF 4 AM...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...PUSHING THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. INCREASING
WARM AND DRY WINDS STREAMING INTO THE STATE WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
A REAL CONCERN. THEREFORE...ONGOING RED FLAG FOR TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE WATCH FOR
TOMORROW. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION PCPN FREE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE NAM HINTS AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND RAMPART RANGE. ONGOING GRIDS HAD ISOLATED POPS
THERE...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN. OTHERWISE...DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE 80S PUSHING 90 F...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARDS WETTER WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...
FORECAST MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE SAME TREND WITH THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHWARD INTO NV/UT BY WEDNESDAY THEN DROPPING IT BACK
SOUTHWARD INTO AZ FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS
INITIALLY INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST...THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PUEBLO AND
LOCATIONS TO THE LEE OF THE WETS MAY MIX OUT THE LATEST...BUT
OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE A 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
ON TUESDAY...NAM BRINGS A SHALLOW FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN MIXES IT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL...AIRMASS DRIES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NIL...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FRONT MIXES OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE A REPEAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...THOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT.
FRONT MAY MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS DETAIL. THE
GFS MIXES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE NAM12 AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS AT LEAST NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENDING DRY LINE. IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS COULD BE
THE FIRST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIT THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...AS DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 40S YIELD CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. OF
COURSE...DRIER GFS HAS THIS AXIS OF HIGHER CAPES AND RESULTANT QPF IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SO TOO SOON TO SAY FOR SURE.
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP
LAYER SHEARS ARE NOT THE BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...0-6 KM SHEARS REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...CAPES WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE 1000+ J/KG RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SO WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL RAMP UP CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS...PARTICULARLY THOSE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. AND WITH ENOUGH CAPE...THERE COULD STILL BE
THE THREAT FOR HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE CAPE...OR IF LOW LEVEL WINDS
CAN BACK A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE EAST INCREASING THE SHEAR.
NEXT SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE MORE ACTIVE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD...SO OVERALL THE TREND POINTS TO A WETTER
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND LAST THROUGH 03Z .
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ224-227>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ224-230-233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE ERN LAKES AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN UPPER
MI AND NW WI SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILED AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT FROM
NEAR CYGQ(GERALDTON) TO NW MN.
TODAY...EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL
QVECTOR CONV TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SHRTWV TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN. DIURNAL
HEATING WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM
SHOULD ALSO BOOST SHRA POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED. MIXING
TO 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S ALONG SHORELINE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. UNDERT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEST AND THE THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE THIS DISCUSSION ON THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND THAT WILL BE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS
AT 00Z TUESDAY AND THE LOCATION OF UPPER MI IN BETWEEN IT AND THE
EXITING SFC HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
AND RESIDE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
OF COURSE SPECIFIC QPF ESTIMATES IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS VERY
DIFFICULT...AND HIGHLY DEPENDS ON TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATIONS OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY EVENING WEST...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MI. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF NEARLY 0.5IN CWA
WIDE OVERNIGHT. THIS EQUATES TO QPF VALUES OF 0.7 TO 1IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WILL
BE INTERESTED IN SEEING HOW SOME OF THE RIVERS THAT ARE AREA.THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER W AND CENTRAL AREAS
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO THE HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND 500MB RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD RAISE SOME CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. THE
GOOD NEWS AT THIS POINT IS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD...SO CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW INSTABILITY -SHRA TODAY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING...OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS/HIGH LCLS WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS EVEN IF THE ISOLD -SHRA IMPACT ANY OF THE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
MORNING UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS/WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE TIMING/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS
DEVELOPING WEST BEFORE 00Z. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING NORTH. ML CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UP TO 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL...WITH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO STRAIGHT LINE WIND
THREAT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY NEAR AND AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING MIGHT ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THE LATEST
OBSERVATION FROM BAKER MONTANA IS REPORTING RAIN...SO HAVE CHANGED
TO COVERAGE WORDING IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST NAM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MONTANA / NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVING TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST DRIVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. S/WV IMPULSE WEST OF
THE RIDGE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
BILLINGS AND MILES CITY...PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH RES MODELS TRY TO
BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AFTER 12Z. WILL STAY THE
COURSE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND KEEP THE AM HOURS DRY FOR
NOW.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL PLAY OUT
REGARDING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MINIMAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH FAR
WESTERN ND 22-23Z AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL 03Z
OR AFTER. ALSO...STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TRIGGER WILL STILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AT 00Z AND WILL NOT GENERATE FORCING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DOES APPEAR
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING FLOW TO GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE SFC-BASED CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO REGARDING THE SOUTHWEST...LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE CAPPING INVERSION DURING PEAK HEATING TIME
21-01Z. SUPPORTING THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO...THE 4KM WRF/RAP/ECMWF
DEPICT NO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WELL AFTER
00Z.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MOST FAVORABLE
AREAS FOR MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA GETS DRY SLOTTED LATE TONIGHT.
REGARDING T-STORM/SEVERE CHANCES...MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MUCAPE/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAIN ROBUST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...TRYING TO SPREAD
EAST (HIGHEST WITH THE NAM...NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE ECMWF) INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH A 45-55KT LOW LEVEL
JET. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE AT THIS TIME IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL
BEEF UP THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SHOW A TIGHT POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE NORTH. WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASES AGAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WX TYPE GRID.
THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN MORE IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD WRAP AROUND THE LOW TUESDAY ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEIGHTS AT H5 WITH
OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE
OUTER PERIODS TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15-18 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM WYOMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK 00Z-02Z MONDAY SPREADING EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS BEING ADDED IF CONFIDENCE IN THEM REACHING THE
TERMINALS GROWS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
721 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
LOOP WHICH RUNS THROUGH 23Z. WILL GO AHEAD AND REDUCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...WILL OPT TO INCREASE THE DECREASING CLOUD
COVER TREND ACROSS THE NORTH AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
ALREADY NOTED. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 19/12Z. EXPECTING A DECREASING CLOUDINESS
TREND RATHER QUICKLY THRU 18/15Z W - 18/17Z E AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. MAYBE SOME SHWRS ALSO AROUND CSV THRU THIS TIME
PERIOD AT BEST...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AT BNA/CKV. AFTER DISTURBANCE
PASSAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD DECK TO REFERENCE IN TAFS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CSV AROUND
AND AFTER 19/06Z EXPECTED PER MOISTURE POOLING/CALM WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN EASTWARD MOVING IMPULSE THAT WILL SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS OPPOSING MUCH OF ANY
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAVE
POPS OUT FOR TODAY AT BNA AND CKV. ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY GO WITH
30 POPS PLATEAU...60 POPS FAR SOUTH WITH LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH. THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE 4 AM ISSUANCE
BUT THAT IS THE CURRENT THINKING. OTHERWISE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. SOME SFC BASED
MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH THE EXPECTED LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS.
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EVEN WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY AREAS. AT THAT TIME...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER EAST TX WITH
A STRONG 850 MB FLOW SPREADING THE WARMTH FROM THAT AREA NE TOWARD
MIDDLE TN.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM EFFECT ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S
TO NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A NW FLOW ON SATURDAY. STILL WARM BUT TEMPS WILL
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.
AS FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES...AIRMASS TOO DRY AND CAP TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...CAP WILL WEAKEN
AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS OUR WAY FROM THE
NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
538 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 19/12Z. EXPECTING A DECREASING CLOUDINESS
TREND RATHER QUICKLY THRU 18/15Z W - 18/17Z E AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. MAYBE SOME SHWRS ALSO AROUND CSV THRU THIS TIME
PERIOD AT BEST...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AT BNA/CKV. AFTER DISTURBANCE
PASSAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD DECK TO REFERENCE IN TAFS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CSV AROUND
AND AFTER 19/06Z EXPECTED PER MOISTURE POOLING/CALM WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN EASTWARD MOVING IMPULSE THAT WILL SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS OPPOSING MUCH OF ANY
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAVE
POPS OUT FOR TODAY AT BNA AND CKV. ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY GO WITH
30 POPS PLATEAU...60 POPS FAR SOUTH WITH LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD
NORTH. THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE 4 AM ISSUANCE
BUT THAT IS THE CURRENT THINKING. OTHERWISE...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. SOME SFC BASED
MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH THE EXPECTED LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS.
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EVEN WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY AREAS. AT THAT TIME...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER EAST TX WITH
A STRONG 850 MB FLOW SPREADING THE WARMTH FROM THAT AREA NE TOWARD
MIDDLE TN.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM EFFECT ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S
TO NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A NW FLOW ON SATURDAY. STILL WARM BUT TEMPS WILL
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.
AS FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES...AIRMASS TOO DRY AND CAP TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...CAP WILL WEAKEN
AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS OUR WAY FROM THE
NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
838 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED OFF OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MORE OVER
THE COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS APPEAR FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...IR FOG CHANNEL IS SHOWING GREATEST CLOUD COVER WEST
AND NORTH OF TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED MAINLY VFR CIGS OVER THE
CWFA (WHERE CIGS ARE LOCATED). THUS...AM EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 3500 FEET EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A SHORT
TIME BEFORE 15Z (AND MAYBE EVEN ALICE JUST BELOW 3000 FEET).
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HEATING BY 15Z WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSE WINDS
DURING THE DAY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. THEN...AM EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AOA 19/06Z SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BETTER
OF A MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS LESSER AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND SHEAR EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WITH SUBSIDENT AIR THROUGH MONDAY. MORE CLOUDS
TODAY (MAINLY IN THE MORNING)...THEN EVEN MORE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
LESS WIND TODAY THAN SATURDAY AS GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER SINCE SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY (AT LEAST PROGGED TO BE).
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AND NOT MUCH TO CHANGE...ALTHOUGH
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE
(GENERALLY ABOUT A DEGREE SOME AREAS).
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WAS GOING TO CURTAIL SCA FOR THE
GULFMEX BUT WINDS STARTED TO KICK UP. RUC WINDS NORMALLY ON THE HIGH
SIDE...BUT THIS MAY PAN OUT SINCE IT IS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND
GFS/NAM MOS SHOWS WINDS UP TIL ABOUT 12Z. THUS...SCA WILL CONTINUE
AND WILL GO TIL 12Z WITH IT. AFTER THAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT STILL AROUND SCEC AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST DURING FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 100MB DURING THAT TIME.
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING/BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY MID/LATE WEEK MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES HAVE GREATLY SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOW KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER SW
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WAS HESITANT TO JUMP ON THIS SLOWER
PROGRESSION...BUT GFS/ECMWF/AND MOST GEFS MEMBERS ALL INDICATE
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE TOWARDS A 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR WESTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
AS VORT MAXES IN H5 TO H7 LAYER ADVECT AROUND MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION. MAX/MIN
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER BY LATER IN THE WEEK TO HAVE
GREATER IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS AND STRONGER LLJ TO IMPACT MIN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 68 84 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 65 87 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
LAREDO 95 69 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
ALICE 89 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 71 81 73 84 / 0 0 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 65 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 87 66 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 71 82 72 84 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...IR FOG CHANNEL IS SHOWING GREATEST CLOUD COVER WEST
AND NORTH OF TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED MAINLY VFR CIGS OVER THE
CWFA (WHERE CIGS ARE LOCATED). THUS...AM EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 3500 FEET EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A SHORT
TIME BEFORE 15Z (AND MAYBE EVEN ALICE JUST BELOW 3000 FEET).
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HEATING BY 15Z WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSE WINDS
DURING THE DAY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. THEN...AM EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AOA 19/06Z SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BETTER
OF A MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS LESSER AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND SHEAR EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WITH SUBSIDENT AIR THROUGH MONDAY. MORE CLOUDS
TODAY (MAINLY IN THE MORNING)...THEN EVEN MORE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE
LESS WIND TODAY THAN SATURDAY AS GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER SINCE SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY (AT LEAST PROGGED TO BE).
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AND NOT MUCH TO CHANGE...ALTHOUGH
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE
(GENERALLY ABOUT A DEGREE SOME AREAS).
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WAS GOING TO CURTAIL SCA FOR THE
GULFMEX BUT WINDS STARTED TO KICK UP. RUC WINDS NORMALLY ON THE HIGH
SIDE...BUT THIS MAY PAN OUT SINCE IT IS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND
GFS/NAM MOS SHOWS WINDS UP TIL ABOUT 12Z. THUS...SCA WILL CONTINUE
AND WILL GO TIL 12Z WITH IT. AFTER THAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT STILL AROUND SCEC AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST DURING FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 100MB DURING THAT TIME.
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING/BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY MID/LATE WEEK MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES HAVE GREATLY SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOW KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER SW
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WAS HESITANT TO JUMP ON THIS SLOWER
PROGRESSION...BUT GFS/ECMWF/AND MOST GEFS MEMBERS ALL INDICATE
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE TOWARDS A 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR WESTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
AS VORT MAXES IN H5 TO H7 LAYER ADVECT AROUND MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION. MAX/MIN
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER BY LATER IN THE WEEK TO HAVE
GREATER IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS AND STRONGER LLJ TO IMPACT MIN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 68 84 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 65 87 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
LAREDO 95 69 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
ALICE 89 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 71 81 73 84 / 0 0 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 65 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 87 66 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 71 82 72 84 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS COLORADO. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPS SOMEWHAT MILD AS OF 4 AM...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...PUSHING THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. INCREASING
WARM AND DRY WINDS STREAMING INTO THE STATE WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
A REAL CONCERN. THEREFORE...ONGOING RED FLAG FOR TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE WATCH FOR
TOMORROW. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION PCPN FREE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE NAM HINTS AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND RAMPART RANGE. ONGOING GRIDS HAD ISOLATED POPS
THERE...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN. OTHERWISE...DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE 80S PUSHING 90 F...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARDS WETTER WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...
FORECAST MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE SAME TREND WITH THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHWARD INTO NV/UT BY WEDNESDAY THEN DROPPING IT BACK
SOUTHWARD INTO AZ FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS
INITIALLY INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST...THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PUEBLO AND
LOCATIONS TO THE LEE OF THE WETS MAY MIX OUT THE LATEST...BUT
OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE A 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
ON TUESDAY...NAM BRINGS A SHALLOW FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN MIXES IT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL...AIRMASS DRIES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NIL...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FRONT MIXES OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE A REPEAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...THOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT.
FRONT MAY MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS DETAIL. THE
GFS MIXES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE NAM12 AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS AT LEAST NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENDING DRY LINE. IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS COULD BE
THE FIRST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIT THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...AS DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 40S YIELD CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. OF
COURSE...DRIER GFS HAS THIS AXIS OF HIGHER CAPES AND RESULTANT QPF IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SO TOO SOON TO SAY FOR SURE.
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP
LAYER SHEARS ARE NOT THE BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...0-6 KM SHEARS REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...CAPES WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE 1000+ J/KG RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SO WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL RAMP UP CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS...PARTICULARLY THOSE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. AND WITH ENOUGH CAPE...THERE COULD STILL BE
THE THREAT FOR HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE CAPE...OR IF LOW LEVEL WINDS
CAN BACK A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE EAST INCREASING THE SHEAR.
NEXT SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE MORE ACTIVE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD...SO OVERALL THE TREND POINTS TO A WETTER
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SW. KCOS MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ224-227>237.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-230-233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
342 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT MAY LIFT
THROUGH PART OF THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ITS PARENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR RUN NOW BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISO SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTN...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF ISO SHOWER
POTENTIAL THROUGH 00Z WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINING IN
PLACE. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWING CU FIELD STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE NW FLOW...SO VERY WELL COULD END UP WITH JUST
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A SPRINKLE INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF ANY LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS THEN SUBSIDES WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AFTER 00Z.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...BUILDING GRADUALLY TO THE WEST INTO THE TRI STATE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH BY LATE TONIGHT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH CLEARING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
THE ENERGY PIVOTS TO THE EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH DOMINATING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. AS SUCH...SOME AREAS OF
INTERIOR NY AND CT COULD DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. WITH DEW PTS
HOVERING IN THE 30S AS WELL...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT OVER THESE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISO PCPN FORMATION BY THE LATE AFTN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST...WITH LOW PRESSURE HOVERING
OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH SPLITTING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAY TIME HEATING. THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SLOW TO PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A CLOSED LOW FORMATION BY
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. THIS LOW WILL CREEP TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY/FORCING ASSISTING IN DEVELOPING
THE LATE AFTN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISO TSTM. DOWNSLOPING RESULTING
FROM NW SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT SETTING UP...MORE
OVER EASTERN THAN WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED
LOW...SHOULD SEE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER ISO
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN. CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISO TSTM OVER CT AND
EASTERN LI DURING THIS TIME AS WELL CORRESPONDING WITH THE STEEPER
LAPSE RATES/BETTER INSTABILITY. DECENT HEATING AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING...RESULTING IN GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE AFTN. THE STRONGER FLOW
SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE THE EXTENT OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION...MAINLY
JUST AT THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES.
LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE CLOSED LOW SLOWING INCHING
TO THE EAST AND TAKING THE BETTER FORCING WILL ONCE DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF PCPN BY 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. WEAK WAA SPREADING INTO
THE REGION WILL UP THE LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN
TONIGHT...PRECLUDING ANY FROST FORMATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL H5 FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LEADING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
A CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE CA COAST TUE MORNING WILL TRY TO
TRACK INLAND...BUT WILL BE HALTED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE EASTERN US BEHIND A DEPARTING CUTOFF LOW AS ANOTHER TROUGH
TRAVERSES ALONG THE CENTRAL US/CANADA BORDER. AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TUE NIGHT FROM PROGRESSING AND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE NE AS THE TROUGH IN SRN CANADA
TRACKS EWD. THE LATTER TROUGH WILL ALSO CUTOFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TRACKING THROUGH THE NE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH THE CUTOFF NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA NEXT WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS A RESULT.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUE AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. DRY AND
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED TUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE ON WED AS
UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES...WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCED WED NIGHT AND THU
AS THE PARENT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR THU WILL LIKELY REMAIN TRICKY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE WARM FRONT MAY MAKE IT THROUGH SOME WESTERN ZONES. BUT WITH
THE LOW TRACK FROM NW TO SE...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A
MARITIME AIRMASS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE N SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH SFC BASED IN THE WARM SECTOR SO TSTMS FOR ALL WED AFTN
THROUGH THU.
AS THE UPPER ENERGY CONSOLIDATES FRI AND SAT...PIECES OF VORTICITY
WILL PINWHEEL THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM TIME TO TIME. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE TIMING THIS FAR OUT...BUT HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO DAYTIME WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH DRY CONDS RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH A GENERAL
NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT ALLOWING FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5-8KFT.
GENERAL WIND GUSTS WILL BE 15-20KT BEFORE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS
AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.
SOME BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY FOR CITY
TERMINALS AND TO NORTHWEST WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER BRIEF WIND
GUSTS...UP TO AROUND 25 KT. MONDAY COULD ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO NW FLOW WOULD BE KGON WITH THE SEA BREEZE WITH IT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON-MON EVE...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT. ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM...RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.
.LATE MON EVE-TUE EVENING...VFR.
.LATE TUE NIGHT-FRI...BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FRI NIGHT AS SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRES
MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...24/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALLOWS FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP SHOWS A VORT MAX ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC
CORRIDOR. SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER W-CNTRL
NY...AND SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE SRN DACKS. THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL IS ABOUT -25C WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
SFC AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...BUT SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST HRRR FAVORS LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE NAM TO THE SOUTH.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF THE CUMULUS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE...SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO
SUNSET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WITH SOME
FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...PERHAPS EAST INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. VALLEY AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH MID 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW SPOTS IN NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NEAR GLENS FALLS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S. GOOD
MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BREEZY NW WINDS 10-15 MPH...WITH A FEW
GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH MINS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S. SOME AREAS/PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA AREA...SOUTHERN VT...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
THE EXTENT OF THE FROST IS STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE...SO WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY MENTION IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
ENOUGH TO STILL HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN RECENT DAYS. MINS ON MON NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
/A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SPOTS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S/ AND DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING REVEALS A COMPLEX TROUGH
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A POTENT JET MOVING ASHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY PLAYERS
FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS FEATURE PER THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN
NY AND EASTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TIMING OF THIS WARM FRONT HAS
SLOWED DOWN A BIT...WE WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND CONFINE THEM TO THE
WESTERN AREAS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE ON WEDNESDAY IS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION PER WPC GUIDANCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT CURRENT HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR TRACES
SUGGEST A LOW WAVENUMBER ENERGETICS PATTERN...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AND STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY. FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOW EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOW 70S
AND LOWS RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. IT HAS PRODUCED SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WELL WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...AS WE
WORK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ONLY SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY AT KPOU. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS WE WORK THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
MAY EVEN CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY BY 12Z MONDAY. OUR NEXT POSSIBLE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR CALM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO PAST
12Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW...
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 MPH OR LESS. SOME DEW OR FROST
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 30 TO 35
PERCENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT
UTICA. THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY FALLING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BEFORE FLOOD STAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE...RIVER
LEVELS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE FALLING...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE LOWER
REACHES ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS /SUCH AS THE HOUSATONIC/ ARE JUST
CRESTING NOW. ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEDE...AS
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATER THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
115 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALLOWS FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP SHOWS A VORT MAX ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC
CORRIDOR. SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER W-CNTRL
NY...AND SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE SRN DACKS. THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL IS ABOUT -25C WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
SFC AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...BUT SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST HRRR FAVORS LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE NAM TO THE SOUTH.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF THE CUMULUS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE...SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO
SUNSET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WITH SOME
FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...PERHAPS EAST INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. VALLEY AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH MID 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW SPOTS IN NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NEAR GLENS FALLS MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S. GOOD
MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BREEZY NW WINDS 10-15 MPH...WITH A FEW
GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH MINS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S. SOME AREAS/PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA AREA...SOUTHERN VT...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
THE EXTENT OF THE FROST IS STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE...SO WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY MENTION IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
ENOUGH TO STILL HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN RECENT DAYS. MINS ON MON NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
/A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SPOTS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S/ AND DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING REVEALS A COMPLEX TROUGH
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A POTENT JET MOVING ASHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY PLAYERS
FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS FEATURE PER THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN
NY AND EASTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TIMING OF THIS WARM FRONT HAS
SLOWED DOWN A BIT...WE WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND CONFINE THEM TO THE
WESTERN AREAS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE ON WEDNESDAY IS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION PER WPC GUIDANCE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT CURRENT HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR TRACES
SUGGEST A LOW WAVENUMBER ENERGETICS PATTERN...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AND STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY. FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOW EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOW 70S
AND LOWS RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A FEW-SCT CUMULUS AND
SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLD INSTABILITY SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN /KPSF/...BUT THIS CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE
TERMINALS FOR NOW...SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER IS LOW. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FOR KPOU. EXPERIENTIAL HRRR/HIRESWRF
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
INDICATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS WE WILL INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N TO NW AT 7-12 KTS BY THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS IN 16-18 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW...
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 MPH OR LESS. SOME DEW OR FROST
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 30 TO 35
PERCENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT
UTICA. THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY FALLING...AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BEFORE FLOOD STAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE...RIVER
LEVELS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE FALLING...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE LOWER
REACHES ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS /SUCH AS THE HOUSATONIC/ ARE JUST
CRESTING NOW. ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEDE...AS
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATER THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
516 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS. THE
MODELS SHOW LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTING EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR DISPLAYS SPOTTY LINGERING RAIN EXITING
THE EAST PART AROUND 200 AM. H85 WESTERLY FLOW HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE. BELIEVE RAIN WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON TAP BEFORE THE WARM UP REALLY BEGINS. THE MAIN
UPPER WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WHILE THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER OFF THE
COAST. EXPECT TO HAVE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH IT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL...WITH READINGS AROUND 50
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS KEEPS THE REGION
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK. IT WILL ALSO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH 80S EXPECTED TUESDAY...AND THEN 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT OR UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO MAY AFFECT OUR REGION BY
NEST WEEKEND...AND MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE APPEARING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY FROM VFR...TO AREAS OF
IFR. EXPECT THESE TYPES OF CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS...THEN BACK UP TO VFR. THEN ADD IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH 02Z ALSO. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN
CEILINGS...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE
CEILING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DRYING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS NOT REALLY TRENDING THAT WAY...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF
CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. MONDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
259 PM CDT Sun May 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough from the Hudson bay
down along the mid Atlantic seaboard with a shortwave over the mid MS
river valley. A closed low was spinning off the Pacific northwest
coast causing a low amplitude ridge to propagate east across the
Rockies and into the plains. Surface obs show a trough of low
pressure in the lee of the Rockies deepening with higher dewpoints
across the southern plains poised to move north.
For tonight and Monday, models continue to show a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up as the low level jet increases. While
low level moisture is likely to increase with the southerly winds,
models continue to show a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) advecting
in from the southwest. This dry and warm air (700MB temps around
+12C) is expected to form a capping inversion by Monday and the
latest RAP and NAM solutions have this warm air moving in as soon as
this evening. So am still not that optimistic on precip chances
overnight as the low level jet advects dryer air northeast. The RAP
and HRRR have started to show convection coming off the higher
terrain out west, but it falls apart as it runs into the EML. The
GFS is the only solution with any meaningful QPF and the forecast
soundings do not really support elevated convection as it too
advects in the EML and no real instability above the inversion.
There may be an isolated shower along the leading edge of the EML as
decent isentropic upglide provides some lift, so have continued with
some slight chance POPs for the early morning hours. By late in the
morning, the EML should be over much of the area with no real large
scale forcing to break the cap. Therefore expect Monday to remain
dry for the most part. Think the main sensible weather overnight
will be some low stratus advecting north with the moisture return.
The increasing pressure gradient should keep the boundary layer
mixed overnight so fog development appears to have a low probability
of occurring. The breezy winds and increasing low level moisture
should keep lows in the upper 50s to around 60 tonight. Good warm air
advection and afternoon sunshine should help push highs into the mid
80s to around 90.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
Medium and longer range periods looking similar to other recent
model runs. Elevated mixed layer should remain in control and keep
convection in check into the mid week periods despite a modest cold
front sinking south. Location of the low level thermal axis is
somewhat in question, but will likely poke most strongly northeast
into southwestern portions of the area Tuesday and back off the to
the southwest Wednesday with low level flow more backed, with highs
into the 90s along it. As the surface high works its way east toward
the Great Lakes, low level moisture will pool along the boundary and
low level jet pick up in intensity Wednesday night. This presents
the first notable chance for precipitation mainly in northern
Kansas. Northwest flow over the eastern CONUS brings the surface
high southeast and with help of convection, helps bring the old
front farther south into Kansas. The EML should weaken and moisten
as models are fairly consistent with precipitation becoming more
widespread in the southern High Plains and local mid level parcels
being sourced from this area. The boundary`s presence and much more
limited convective inhibition will keep precipitation chances
through much of the late week and into the weekend with temperatures
modifying back toward normal. Boundary could be rather weak to
non-existent by the weekend but models are fairly consistent with
the southwest cut-off low topping the Rockies by this time. The
Wednesday night storms could present the highest severe weather
potential when shear profiles are at least moderate, but weakening
flow should keep anything more than pulse severe storms in check for
the bulk the forecast with areas of heavier rains possible from
slow-moving convection in an atmosphere with above normal
precipitable water.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014
Think VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with no
real forcing or lift to create precip or restrictions to VSBY and
CIGS. Main concern will be low level moisture return overnight and
noticed central OK is still trying to mix out some IFR CIGS. With
this moisture poised to move north overnight, will introduce some
MVFR CIGS, but confidence is still marginal since the latest RAP
soundings do not saturate the boundary layer. Because of this,
have CIGS in a TEMPO group for now. Any TS chances overnight
appear to be to small to include a mention in the terminals due to
a strengthening EML advecting in from the southwest.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
635 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW TO PASS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE MONDAY. THE COLD
FRONT THAT STALLED OUT ALONG THE ME/NB BORDER LAST NIGHT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY. THE FRONT IS NOW MORE OR LESS AN INVERTED TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IN
QUEBEC. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
PAST 3 HOURS. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS...AND THE ONLY CHANGE IS TO BUMP UP THE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN
HAS CONTINUED TO FILL IN ON THE KCBW 88-D AND MOST AREAS ARE
REPORTING -RA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT IS GENERALLY QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
BLOCKING HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. THE WSR-88D INDICATES AREA OF
SHOWERS FROM PORTIONS OF NE AROOSTOOK TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PENOBSCOT TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
GREAT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TODAY AND THIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY.
THIS COUPLED WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED INTO MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START THIS PERIOD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. FOR TUESDAY...THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE GONE AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO N DURING THE DAY. THIS MEANS COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TRANSITORY SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO END THE LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVELS PERSIST. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SPUR ANOTHER ROUND OF A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROCEED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THURSDAY ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF
HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT IN LOWER STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. MVFR AT KBGR WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KBHB. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BY MON PM.
SHORT TERM: MOIST LOW LEVELS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONDITIONS VARYING FROM PREVAILING IFR OR MVFR AT NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOONS IN
LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 4 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF...AND IS MOSTLY THE RESULT
OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1/2 NM
OR LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN FOG.
SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.CLIMATE...FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD WAS BROKEN AT CARIBOU. THE LOW YESTERDAY OF 55 DEGREES WAS
THE WARMEST LOW TEMP EVER OBSERVED ON MAY 17TH. THE OLD RECORD OF
54F WAS SET IN 1989.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/MCW
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/MCW
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
319 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT IS GENERALLY QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
BLOCKING HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. THE WSR-88D INDICATES AREA OF
SHOWERS FROM PORTIONS OF NE AROOSTOOK TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PENOBSCOT TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
GREAT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TODAY AND THIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY.
THIS COUPLED WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED INTO MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START THIS PERIOD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. FOR TUESDAY...THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE GONE AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
NE TO N DURING THE DAY. THIS MEANS COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TRANSITORY SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO END THE LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVELS PERSIST. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SPUR ANOTHER ROUND OF A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROCEED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THURSDAY ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF
HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND
COME BACK UP MVFR/VFR FOR SITES ON LATER ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: MOIST LOW LEVELS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONDITIONS VARYING FROM PREVAILING IFR OR MVFR AT NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOONS IN
LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.
SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...JORDAN/MCW
MARINE...JORDAN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE ERN LAKES AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN UPPER
MI AND NW WI SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILED AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT FROM
NEAR CYGQ(GERALDTON) TO NW MN.
TODAY...EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL
QVECTOR CONV TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SHRTWV TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN. DIURNAL
HEATING WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM
SHOULD ALSO BOOST SHRA POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED. MIXING
TO 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 7C RANGE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S ALONG SHORELINE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. UNDERT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEST AND THE THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE THIS DISCUSSION ON THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND THAT WILL BE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS
AT 00Z TUESDAY AND THE LOCATION OF UPPER MI IN BETWEEN IT AND THE
EXITING SFC HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND
CENTRAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
AND RESIDE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
OF COURSE SPECIFIC QPF ESTIMATES IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS VERY
DIFFICULT...AND HIGHLY DEPENDS ON TIMING/COVERAGE/LOCATIONS OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY EVENING WEST...AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
MI. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF NEARLY 0.5IN CWA
WIDE OVERNIGHT. THIS EQUATES TO QPF VALUES OF 0.7 TO 1IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WILL
BE INTERESTED IN SEEING HOW SOME OF THE RIVERS THAT ARE AREA.THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER W AND CENTRAL AREAS
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO THE HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND 500MB RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD RAISE SOME CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. THE
GOOD NEWS AT THIS POINT IS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVERHEAD...SO CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY IS AT KSAW WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH DUE TO VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS WORKING OUT AS
PLANNED. HRRR MODEL SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN A QUASI-LINEAR
FASHION AND TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT YESTERDAY/S
MODELS DEPICTED. OUTFLOW WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
SEEM TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 6 HOUR QPF
BULLS EYES NEAR AN INCH FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN GOING. DO NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOODING BUT IT WILL BE A SLOPPY
MESS IN MOST AREAS COME MONDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH ALL BUT THE NE ZONES DRY
MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY...NAM/GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM BECOMING STACKED OVER S
SASK. CLEARING MAY MAKE IT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT
PROXIMITY TO STORM WILL KEEP NORTHERN ZONES CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE WINDY TOO...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOSED SYSTEM GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TFJ
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US
MOST OF THE WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE
ZONAL THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF THE TIME. VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
(IFR/MVFR/VFR) AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS...HAIL AND/OR HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBILITIES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR/BRIEF AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 KTS BY AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
TO WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. WEST WIND OF 15 TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
FRANSEN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
641 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST
NIGHT...ELECTED TO UPGRADE RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS TO A FREEZE
WARNING. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND LAMP TAKE EKN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S WHICH WOULD CORRELATE A BIT LOWER IN COLD SPOTS OF E RANDOLPH
COUNTY...IE GLADY. HIGHER RIDGETOPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN H85 TEMPS VS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
BELIEVE A COUNTY WIDE AVG CAN BE ACHIEVED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT PATCHY FROST IN AREAS NOT IN
FROST ADVISORY...IE TRI STATE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TRANQUIL WX IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT.
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND IS
ESSENTIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES BY 09Z-12Z
MON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERNIGHT MINS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT FROST
HIGHLIGHTS...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS. VARIOUS NEAR
AND SHORT TERM NWP WIDE APART ON OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...WHICH LIKELY
STEM FROM EXACTLY HOW LOW DEWPTS DROP TODAY WITH MIXING. AT
15Z...HSP CURRENTLY REPORTING A 28F TD. LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR
OUTPUT...AMONG OTHERS...SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WAY DOWN IN THE MID 20S
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING ALL NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S.
NON-CONVECTIVE NWP RUN THE GAMUT IN BETWEEN...KEEPING DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 30S...AND SOME A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT. PLAN ON
WATCHING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL ON COVERAGE
OF TONIGHT/S FROST ADVISORY...BUT RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE PROBABLY
REMAINING CLOSE TO SOME FORM OF CONSMOS WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS POINT WITH TD/S RECOVERING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE LOWLANDS...AFTER AFTERNOON TD/S THIS AFTERNOON
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S. FROST DOES APPEAR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT
VERSUS LAST NIGHT...AND DO ANTICIPATE A FROST ADVISORY NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.
MONDAY...VERY NICE AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. LATEST NAM12 IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY AREA...BUT THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY
WEAK AND WILL TREAT THIS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RAISE OF SILENT POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WIND TURNS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT
TO BRING CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO MOVE EAST
UNDER ALMOST ZONAL FLOW BY MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY. IF FACT...IT COULD BE QUITE UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR UP TO 40
KNOTS MAINLY NORTH...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OH...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SREF
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR 80 DEGREES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. EVEN WARMER A AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT UNDER WARM ADVECTION.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ALL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING DRY AND FRESHER AIR TO SET IN FROM THE WEST. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO
WV THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CALM FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT FLAT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN HEATING/MIXING
WITH BASES IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY.
EXPECT SOME LATE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIVERS...AS WINDS GO NEAR-
CALM. ALSO EXPECTING FROST TO OCCUR AS WELL...PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG EXPANSION SOME. ALL
IN ALL...KEPT ALL LOCATIONS VFR THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EXCEPT EKN...WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS LIKELY AFTER 06Z MON.
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST...WIND DIRECTIONS
GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RAPIDLY SCATTER BY 12Z-13Z
AS TEMPS QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...ASIDE FROM FOG POTENTIAL.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND COVERAGE TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-024>040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-085-086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND AMPLIFYING NW FLOW ALOFT.
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND IS
ESSENTIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES BY 09Z-12Z
MON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERNIGHT MINS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT FROST
HIGHLIGHTS...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS. VARIOUS NEAR
AND SHORT TERM NWP WIDE APART ON OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...WHICH LIKELY
STEM FROM EXACTLY HOW LOW DEWPTS DROP TODAY WITH MIXING. AT
15Z...HSP CURRENTLY REPORTING A 28F TD. LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR
OUTPUT...AMONG OTHERS...SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WAY DOWN IN THE MID 20S
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING ALL NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S.
NON-CONVECTIVE NWP RUN THE GAMUT IN BETWEEN...KEEPING DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 30S...AND SOME A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT. PLAN ON
WATCHING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL ON COVERAGE
OF TONIGHT/S FROST ADVISORY...BUT RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE PROBABLY
REMAINING CLOSE TO SOME FORM OF CONSMOS WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS POINT WITH TD/S RECOVERING INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE LOWLANDS...AFTER AFTERNOON TD/S THIS AFTERNOON
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S. FROST DOES APPEAR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT
VERSUS LAST NIGHT...AND DO ANTICIPATE A FROST ADVISORY NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.
MONDAY...VERY NICE AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. LATEST NAM12 IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY AREA...BUT THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY
WEAK AND WILL TREAT THIS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RAISE OF SILENT POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WIND TURNS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT
TO BRING CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO MOVE EAST
UNDER ALMOST ZONAL FLOW BY MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY. IF FACT...IT COULD BE QUITE UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR UP TO 40
KNOTS MAINLY NORTH...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OH...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SREF
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARMER AIRMASS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR 80 DEGREES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. EVEN WARMER A AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT UNDER WARM ADVECTION.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ALL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING DRY AND FRESHER AIR TO SET IN FROM THE WEST. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO
WV THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CALM FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT FLAT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN HEATING/MIXING
WITH BASES IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY.
EXPECT SOME LATE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIVERS...AS WINDS GO NEAR-
CALM. ALSO EXPECTING FROST TO OCCUR AS WELL...PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG EXPANSION SOME. ALL
IN ALL...KEPT ALL LOCATIONS VFR THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EXCEPT EKN...WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS LIKELY AFTER 06Z MON.
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST...WIND DIRECTIONS
GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RAPIDLY SCATTER BY 12Z-13Z
AS TEMPS QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...ASIDE FROM FOG POTENTIAL.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND COVERAGE TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-085-086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50