Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONES TO CUT BACK ON MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE...AND LOWER POPS. SEEING SOME CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...BUT AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY. NAM IS
ALREADY OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY. HRRR LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MTS LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO SHOWS SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
PLAINS...BUT GIVEN THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA. SO...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINTAIN LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTS. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY THROUGH 9 AM. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
CURRENTLY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY HAS ENCOMPASSED SOUTHERN COLORADO. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE PLAINS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING...AND SHOULD FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH WEAK
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS OUT OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OVER THE PLAINS IN REGARDS TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE NAM AND NSSL WRF SOLUTIONS DO DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. HAVE A FEELING GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE...THAT THE PLAINS WILL SEE VIRGA WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50S TO 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR FREEZING LOWS
OVER EL PASO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY POSSIBLE.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...IT MAY
BE WISE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
...PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BIGGER
CHANGES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK...
A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL START TO CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BRING 40 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...REPLACING 20 AND 30 DEGREE
DEWPOINT AIR. THIS WILL HELP BOOST THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ON SATURDAY...THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL
RETREAT A LITTLE TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL ASSIST
IN DRY LINE EVOLUTION THAT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY
MORE SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL NO CLEAR CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER EVIDENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXIST WITH THE DRY LINE IN PLACE.
RIGHT NOW...THE WAY IT LOOKS...THE DRY LINE WILL BE FLUSHED WELL
EAST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A BIG PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE 2 DAYS COULD
END UP BEING HIGH FIRE DANGER DAYS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STATUS OF THE FUELS AT THAT TIME. SOME
AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...RECEIVED
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WITH THE RECENT STORM...AND A DECENT GREENUP
IS UNDERWAY. HOWEVER...GENERALLY LESS PRECIPITATION FELL EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND THE PROGRESS OF THE GREENUP IS LESS CLEAR.
WEATHER OR NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GREENUP.
SO...HOPEFULLY WE`LL GET SOME UPDATED FUELS INFORMATION AT THAT
TIME TO CLEAR UP THE GUESS WORK.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY OF HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR...MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...COULD BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT...TUESDAY EVENING...THE
LATEST GFS HAS THIS BOUNDARY PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
NEARLY TO THE RATON RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY COULD END UP BEING A
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...STRONG TO SEVERE...BOTH
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS YET BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE DAY WE REALLY
FLIP THE SWITCH TOWARD STRONGER AND WETTER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS
SUPPORTED THIS NOTION WHOLEHEARTEDLY...BUT NOW...WITH THE 06Z
RUN...IT HAS PUSHED THE MOIST BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.
ALSO...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS THE BOUNDARY BACK MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND HAS BEEN DOING SO CONSISTENTLY IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...NOT TOO SURE YET EXACTLY WHEN ALL THIS
POTENTIAL MOISTURE WILL COME INTO PLAY...BUT WITH A BIG...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA TAKING RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS PROBABLY
JUST A MATTER OF TIME. IF THINGS DON`T SET UP WEDNESDAY...THEN
THURSDAY AND OR FRIDAY WOULD BE LIKELY CANDIDATES. THE PATTERN
SHOULD CHANGE OVER EVENTUALLY. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH TOMORROW.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NR THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SE CO ON THU...BUT AGAIN THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HYR TRRN. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONES TO CUT BACK ON MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE...AND LOWER POPS. SEEING SOME CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...BUT AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY. NAM IS
ALREADY OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY. HRRR LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MTS LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO SHOWS SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
PLAINS...BUT GIVEN THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA. SO...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINTAIN LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTS. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY THROUGH 9 AM. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
CURRENTLY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY HAS ENCOMPASSED SOUTHERN COLORADO. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE PLAINS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING...AND SHOULD FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH WEAK
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS OUT OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OVER THE PLAINS IN REGARDS TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE NAM AND NSSL WRF SOLUTIONS DO DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. HAVE A FEELING GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE...THAT THE PLAINS WILL SEE VIRGA WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50S TO 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR FREEZING LOWS
OVER EL PASO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY POSSIBLE.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...IT MAY
BE WISE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
...PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BIGGER
CHANGES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK...
A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL START TO CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BRING 40 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...REPLACING 20 AND 30 DEGREE
DEWPOINT AIR. THIS WILL HELP BOOST THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ON SATURDAY...THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL
RETREAT A LITTLE TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL ASSIST
IN DRY LINE EVOLUTION THAT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY
MORE SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL NO CLEAR CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER EVIDENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXIST WITH THE DRY LINE IN PLACE.
RIGHT NOW...THE WAY IT LOOKS...THE DRY LINE WILL BE FLUSHED WELL
EAST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A BIG PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE 2 DAYS COULD
END UP BEING HIGH FIRE DANGER DAYS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STATUS OF THE FUELS AT THAT TIME. SOME
AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...RECEIVED
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WITH THE RECENT STORM...AND A DECENT GREENUP
IS UNDERWAY. HOWEVER...GENERALLY LESS PRECIPITATION FELL EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND THE PROGRESS OF THE GREENUP IS LESS CLEAR.
WEATHER OR NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GREENUP.
SO...HOPEFULLY WE`LL GET SOME UPDATED FUELS INFORMATION AT THAT
TIME TO CLEAR UP THE GUESS WORK.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY OF HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR...MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...COULD BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT...TUESDAY EVENING...THE
LATEST GFS HAS THIS BOUNDARY PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
NEARLY TO THE RATON RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY COULD END UP BEING A
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...STRONG TO SEVERE...BOTH
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS YET BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE DAY WE REALLY
FLIP THE SWITCH TOWARD STRONGER AND WETTER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS
SUPPORTED THIS NOTION WHOLEHEARTEDLY...BUT NOW...WITH THE 06Z
RUN...IT HAS PUSHED THE MOIST BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.
ALSO...THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS THE BOUNDARY BACK MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND HAS BEEN DOING SO CONSISTENTLY IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...NOT TOO SURE YET EXACTLY WHEN ALL THIS
POTENTIAL MOISTURE WILL COME INTO PLAY...BUT WITH A BIG...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA TAKING RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS PROBABLY
JUST A MATTER OF TIME. IF THINGS DON`T SET UP WEDNESDAY...THEN
THURSDAY AND OR FRIDAY WOULD BE LIKELY CANDIDATES. THE PATTERN
SHOULD CHANGE OVER EVENTUALLY. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 25 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
722 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. BY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THIS
FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE...AS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE CHANGE BETWEEN MILDER AND
MORE HUMID AIR OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER
AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AS STABLE MARINE AIR HAS BEEN IN
PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
DURING TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE COMPLEXES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY WORKED EASTWARD INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY STILL ONGOING OVER THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA AREA INTO SRN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BECOME DRY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. BEFORE THEN...SOME CONTINUED
LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW ADIRONDACKS THE FAR SE CORNER OF
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
HELDERBERGS...WHERE A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
SITUATED WEST OF OUR REGION...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONE
MORE DAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS /MAINLY IN THE 40S/. SOME RENEWED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING DURING DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY
GET BRUSHED ONCE AGAIN FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT/S VERY WARM
ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES C/...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 925-950 HPA. STILL...THIS WILL
EQUATE TO HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS SHOULD START TO
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE... WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START TO BECOME DIFFUSE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE HUMID AIR
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...AS SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION OFF THE CHILLY ATLANTIC. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DUE
TO MOIST FLOW...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAY ALLOW AN
AFTN OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL START TO
APPROACH. IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP AND RIDE UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST RAIN LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
RIGHT OUT OF THE SUBTROPICS...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
1.50 INCHES. IT WILL BE MUGGY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS.
THE BEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO FINALLY REACH OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...WITH
OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN A 6 HR PERIOD FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION THAT MAY
OCCUR WITHIN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS EXPECTED...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH ONLY MID 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE TAKING ITS TIME AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
WEST TO EAST. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ONE TO TWO
INCHES...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ANY PLACE THAT SEES EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MAKING ITS WAY ON IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...SOME
UPPER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEAK FORCING BUT APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE RAIN. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES BUT EVEN THERE SHOULD BE
WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH UPPER
50S ONCE AGAIN IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER COLD POOL ARE OVER OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE CLASSIC DIURNAL INSTABILITY DAYTIME CLOUDS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH UPPER
50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN
OUR AREA THAT ARE TRACKING EAST BUT WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SO
JUST KEEPING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO INDICATING VCSH AFTER 0000Z AT
KALB AND KGFL. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BELOW 3000
FEET THAT BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS EAST AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 90
PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL BACK TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON TOMORROW AFTN WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEAD TO SOME
VERY MINOR RISES /LESS THAN A HALF A FOOT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR HSA.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FOR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME SPOTS CAN LOCALLY SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS WELL.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
AT THIS POINT...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IF RAINFALL IS
GREATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MINOR RIVER FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO...SINCE THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL HEAVY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING AREAS COULD BE POSSIBLE...SUCH AS IN
URBAN AREAS. PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR
SLOWER TRAVEL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. BY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THIS
FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE...AS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE CHANGE BETWEEN MILDER AND
MORE HUMID AIR OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER
AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AS STABLE MARINE AIR HAS BEEN IN
PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
DURING TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE COMPLEXES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY WORKED EASTWARD INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY STILL ONGOING OVER THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA AREA INTO SRN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BECOME DRY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. BEFORE THEN...SOME CONTINUED
LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW ADIRONDACKS THE FAR SE CORNER OF
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
HELDERBERGS...WHERE A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
SITUATED WEST OF OUR REGION...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONE
MORE DAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS /MAINLY IN THE 40S/. SOME RENEWED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING DURING DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY
GET BRUSHED ONCE AGAIN FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT/S VERY WARM
ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES C/...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 925-950 HPA. STILL...THIS WILL
EQUATE TO HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS SHOULD START TO
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE... WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START TO BECOME DIFFUSE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE HUMID AIR
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...AS SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION OFF THE CHILLY ATLANTIC. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DUE
TO MOIST FLOW...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAY ALLOW AN
AFTN OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL START TO
APPROACH. IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP AND RIDE UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST RAIN LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
RIGHT OUT OF THE SUBTROPICS...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
1.50 INCHES. IT WILL BE MUGGY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS.
THE BEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO FINALLY REACH OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...WITH
OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN A 6 HR PERIOD FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION THAT MAY
OCCUR WITHIN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS EXPECTED...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH ONLY MID 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE TAKING ITS TIME AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
WEST TO EAST. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ONE TO TWO
INCHES...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ANY PLACE THAT SEES EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MAKING ITS WAY ON IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...SOME
UPPER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEAK FORCING BUT APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE RAIN. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES BUT EVEN THERE SHOULD BE
WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH UPPER
50S ONCE AGAIN IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER COLD POOL ARE OVER OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE CLASSIC DIURNAL INSTABILITY DAYTIME CLOUDS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH UPPER
50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY THAT ARE TRACKING EAST
BUT WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE IT TO KALB AND KGFL BETWEEN 07Z
AND 13Z- 14Z. IF A SHOWER WERE TO AFFECT KALB AND KGFL...IT WOULD
BE CLOSER TO 07Z-09Z...BUT THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE...SO JUST KEEPING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z. IF
A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SURVIVES ITS TRACK INTO THE MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND KALB AND KGFL...WILL AMEND TO MVFR...AS
ANY IFR WOULD BE BRIEF IF AT ALL. RAIN SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO KPSF
OR KPOU.
OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4000 FEET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE INT HE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
INDICATING VCSH AFTER 0000Z AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE COLD ALSO BE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET THAT BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS EAST AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 90
PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL BACK TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON TOMORROW AFTN WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEAD TO SOME
VERY MINOR RISES /LESS THAN A HALF A FOOT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR HSA.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FOR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME SPOTS CAN LOCALLY SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS WELL.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
AT THIS POINT...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IF RAINFALL IS
GREATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MINOR RIVER FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO...SINCE THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL HEAVY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING AREAS COULD BE POSSIBLE...SUCH AS IN
URBAN AREAS. PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR
SLOWER TRAVEL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. BY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THIS
FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE...AS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE CHANGE BETWEEN MILDER AND
MORE HUMID AIR OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AS COMPARED TO THE AIR MASS
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AS STABLE MARINE AIR HAS BEEN IN PLACE
OVER OUR REGION.
THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
WORKED EASTWARD INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY STILL ONGOING OVER
THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SARATOGA AREA. THE 05Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND
MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY BY ABOUT 8 AM. BEFORE THEN...SOME
CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
BASICALLY THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
SITUATED WEST OF OUR REGION...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONE
MORE DAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS /MAINLY IN THE 40S/. SOME RENEWED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING DURING DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY...AND IT/S POSSIBLE OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY
GET BRUSHED ONCE AGAIN FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT/S VERY WARM
ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES C/...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE WILL ONLY MIX TO ABOUT 925-950 HPA. STILL...THIS WILL
EQUATE TO HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS SHOULD START TO
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE... WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START TO BECOME DIFFUSE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE HUMID AIR
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...AS SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION OFF THE CHILLY ATLANTIC. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DUE
TO MOIST FLOW...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAY ALLOW AN
AFTN OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL START TO
APPROACH. IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP AND RIDE UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST RAIN LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
RIGHT OUT OF THE SUBTROPICS...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
1.50 INCHES. IT WILL BE MUGGY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS.
THE BEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO FINALLY REACH OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...WITH
OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN A 6 HR PERIOD FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION THAT MAY
OCCUR WITHIN THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS EXPECTED...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH ONLY MID 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE TAKING ITS TIME AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
WEST TO EAST. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ONE TO TWO
INCHES...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ANY PLACE THAT SEES EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MAKING ITS WAY ON IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...SOME
UPPER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEAK FORCING BUT APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE RAIN. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES BUT EVEN THERE SHOULD BE
WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH UPPER
50S ONCE AGAIN IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER COLD POOL ARE OVER OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE CLASSIC DIURNAL INSTABILITY DAYTIME CLOUDS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH UPPER
50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY THAT ARE TRACKING EAST
BUT WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE IT TO KALB AND KGFL BETWEEN 07Z
AND 13Z- 14Z. IF A SHOWER WERE TO AFFECT KALB AND KGFL...IT WOULD
BE CLOSER TO 07Z-09Z...BUT THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE...SO JUST KEEPING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z. IF
A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SURVIVES ITS TRACK INTO THE MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND KALB AND KGFL...WILL AMEND TO MVFR...AS
ANY IFR WOULD BE BRIEF IF AT ALL. RAIN SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO KPSF
OR KPOU.
OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4000 FEET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE INT HE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
INDICATING VCSH AFTER 0000Z AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE COLD ALSO BE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET THAT BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS EAST AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 90
PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL BACK TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON TOMORROW AFTN WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEAD TO SOME
VERY MINOR RISES /LESS THAN A HALF A FOOT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR HSA.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FOR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME SPOTS CAN LOCALLY SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS WELL.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS.
AT THIS POINT...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IF RAINFALL IS
GREATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MINOR RIVER FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO...SINCE THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL HEAVY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING AREAS COULD BE POSSIBLE...SUCH AS IN
URBAN AREAS. PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR
SLOWER TRAVEL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY...BEFORE A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM
CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A SHARP RISE IN THE DEWPOINTS GOING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY NEAR 40 F OVER
THE BERKSHIRES RISING TO NEAR 60 F IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR. WHILE
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING...RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER HAS MADE IT INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOWING NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN ALREADY IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST. ALL AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
SEE SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS SEEN
IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING/INSTABILITY ALL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
NY. AS A RESULT OF WEAKENING TREND...NO FLOODING OR SEVERE WX IS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME PONDING OF WATER AND HIGHER FLOWS ON
SMALL CREEKS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST BREAKS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WED 500HPA RIDGE AXIS IS THROUGH FCA AND DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY TO NEW
ENG CST. THIS ALLOWS CDFNT IN GRTLKS TO TO BEGIN TO SHIFT E...BUT
IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SERIOUSLY MERIDIONAL 500HPA FLOW...AND
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE GLACIAL.
WITH SOME SUN...CAPE VALUES ALONG W FCA REACH 500-1500 IN VARIOUS
MDLS AS SW FLOW ADVECTS INCR TD OVER W AREAS. WITH CDFNT APPROACHING IT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN W AREAS WED AFTN. HWVR FURTHER
E AIR MASS WILL REMAIN STABLE. MOST OF FCA IN EVOLVING WM SECTOR
WED AS MARINE LAYER DISSIPATES...HWVR THIS WILL BE SLOWEST IN THE
EAST WHERE IT IS DEEPER. WITH HIGH MAY SUN...EVEN THOUGH MDL RH
50-70 PCT...THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUN AT TIMES IN MANY AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 70S...WITH SOME NEAR 80 READINGS. THE
NORMAL TEMP PATTERN WILL BE REVERSED...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE WEST
AND NORTH...COOLEST IN MID HUD VLY AND W CT WHERE MARITIME AIR
WILL REMAIN MOST FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...AND SOME ADDITIONAL LLVL
MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NWRD...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
(GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. AS THE MARITIME INFLUENCE
BEGINS TO WANE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST GETS CLOSER...
POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
REACHING LIKELY LEVELS BY AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SOME MODEL FORECASTS THAT INDICATE THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE MARITIME INFLUENCE
BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS VERY UNSETTLED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. A POTENT DISTURBANCE
MOVING N/NE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY CUT OFF OVER PA AND THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FCST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/WPC GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND WRN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. PWAT ANOMALIES WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GEFS. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 850 HPA LOW LEVEL JET WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLIES /+V ANOMALIES/ OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
BE GENERATED WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TURNING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL FOCUS THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. INITIALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL BE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST FRI INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN THE RAIN BANDS...AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. TOTAL QPF
RIGHT NOW /WPC...GFS...AND ECMWF/ RANGES FROM ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A 24-36 HR TIME
FRAME. A MENTION IN THE HWO WILL CONTINUE FOR HVY RAINFALL FRI INTO
SAT. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD
OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN ANY POTENTIAL
FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
DAMP AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO L70S ON FRI...LOWS IN THE
M40S TO U50S FRI NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S ON
SATURDAY WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. THE RAIN WILL TEND
TO TAPER TO SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...AS THE COLD FRONT...AND SFC WAVE MOVE EASTWARD.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS UPSTREAM OVER
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF NEAR THE
REGION. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST WITH
THE HIGHER CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO L50S...AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN A SHADE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S TO L70S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF AND BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST INTO
TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GFS TENDS TO MOVE THE CUT-OFF EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MOVING IT MORE TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A BIT COOLER
THAN NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY THAT ARE TRACKING EAST
BUT WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE IT TO KALB AND KGFL BETWEEN 07Z
AND 13Z- 14Z. IF A SHOWER WERE TO AFFECT KALB AND KGFL...IT WOULD
BE CLOSER TO 07Z-09Z...BUT THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE...SO JUST KEEPING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z. IF
A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SURVIVES ITS TRACK INTO THE MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND KALB AND KGFL...WILL AMEND TO MVFR...AS
ANY IFR WOULD BE BRIEF IF AT ALL. RAIN SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO KPSF
OR KPOU.
OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4000 FEET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE INT HE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO
INDICATING VCSH AFTER 0000Z AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE COLD ALSO BE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET THAT BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS EAST AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL KEEP
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A STRONGER FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO BETWEEN 35 AND 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL KEEP
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A STRONGER FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH NUMERICAL MODEL
TRENDS CLOSELY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
537 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE 2...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO HAVE
LOWER THE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOW CHANCE CAT FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING BACK SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL SHOW A UP TREND IN POPS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE 2...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR FRIDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA PUSHING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT WITH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A
SURGE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LACKING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST. CURIOUSLY THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INDICATE INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE
THE OUTLIER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF. LIKELY SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH REGIONAL WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A PRE-CAUTIONARY SMALL CRAFT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 76 84 73 / 40 30 70 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 77 85 74 / 40 30 70 40
MIAMI 84 77 85 73 / 40 30 70 40
NAPLES 88 73 84 72 / 50 40 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR FRIDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA PUSHING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT WITH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A
SURGE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LACKING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST. CURIOUSLY THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INDICATE INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE
THE OUTLIER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF. LIKELY SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH REGIONAL WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A PRE-CAUTIONARY SMALL CRAFT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 84 73 82 / 60 70 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 74 83 / 60 70 40 30
MIAMI 77 85 73 84 / 60 70 40 30
NAPLES 73 84 72 81 / 60 60 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT WITH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A
SURGE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LACKING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST. CURIOUSLY THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INDICATE INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE
THE OUTLIER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF. LIKELY SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH REGIONAL WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A PRE-CAUTIONARY SMALL CRAFT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 84 73 82 / 60 70 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 74 83 / 60 70 50 40
MIAMI 77 85 73 84 / 60 70 40 40
NAPLES 73 84 72 81 / 60 60 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW STORMS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE OVER/AROUND THE
TERMINALS. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. INITIALLY
WAS GOING TO REDUCE THE POP`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. THAT COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND
ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
SHIFTED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE STARTING AROUND 20Z TO REFLECT
THESE CONSIDERATIONS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. GUSTY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE OVER/AROUND THE TERMINALS. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
CORRECTED MISSPELLING IN SEVENTH LINE...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY
AND THURSDAY, LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY. ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THE HRRR DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH OUT THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THE PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES TODAY AND CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES ON THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
MID MAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
THUNDER BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ALONG
WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE WITH WPC QPF ONLY DEPICTING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE HOWEVER COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHEREVER ECHOES MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA.
THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER CONDITIONS IS A
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF DRYING TO THE AREA AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WITH PWAT FALLING TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DRY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PWAT FALLING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IF THIS
MATERIALIZES, IT WILL BE LOWEST PWAT VALUES FOR MAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE 1948. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST, A LARGE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A DRY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AT 15-20 KNOTS
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE AGAIN TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 86 72 83 / 50 70 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 86 74 84 / 50 70 50 40
MIAMI 76 86 74 85 / 50 70 50 40
NAPLES 73 85 72 81 / 40 50 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. INITIALLY
WAS GOING TO REDUCE THE POP`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. THAT COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND
ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
SHIFTED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE STARTING AROUND 20Z TO REFLECT
THESE CONSIDERATIONS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. GUSTY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE OVER/AROUND THE TERMINALS. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
.CORRECTED MISSPELLING IN SEVENTH LINE...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY
AND THURSDAY, LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY. ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THE HRRR DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH OUT THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THE PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES TODAY AND CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES ON THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
MID MAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
THUNDER BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ALONG
WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE WITH WPC QPF ONLY DEPICTING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE HOWEVER COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHEREVER ECHOES MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA.
THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER CONDITIONS IS A
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF DRYING TO THE AREA AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WITH PWAT FALLING TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DRY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PWAT FALLING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IF THIS
MATERIALIZES, IT WILL BE LOWEST PWAT VALUES FOR MAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE 1948. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST, A LARGE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A DRY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AT 15-20 KNOTS
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE AGAIN TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 72 / 60 50 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 74 / 60 50 70 50
MIAMI 84 76 86 74 / 60 50 70 50
NAPLES 88 73 85 72 / 50 40 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...GUSTY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS TODAY...
...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...
CURRENT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATE. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AS INDICATED BY THE 915MHZ
VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) AT THE SPACE CENTER AND THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL...MIAMI AND KEY WEST. THE SOUNDINGS
ALSO ARE REPORTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. THE
RADAR MOSAIC LOOP IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
AT AROUND 20 MPH PER THE AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON WHERE ONE IS LOCATED...SKIES WILL
RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SO THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE A NICE AVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
START MIXING DOWN LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY AT THE COAST FROM BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY LOOKS GOOD.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OF MID 80S AT THE COAST AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR ARE OK.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...ANOTHER WARM MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE.
NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT ONSHORE AND MAINLY DISSIPATING AS THEY PASS
WEST OF I-95...WITH MARTIN COUNTY THE ONE EXCEPTION. AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OR THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. A BRIEF DOWNPOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST EVERYWHERE
TODAY WITH EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED NEAR THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST FROM NORTH BREVARD THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED NEAR 10
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. GFS HINTS AT A DRIER POCKET OF AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SURGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
INCREASING VALUES AGAIN TONIGHT APPROACHING 1.80"-1.90". MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA AS THEY
MOVE ON LAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM
ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING. HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED INTO THE
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY LATE DAY/EVENING INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AFTER SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXIT LATE TODAY TO THE WEST EXPECT A
BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE THEM OUT
COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A NOCTURNAL INCREASE LATER IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE
AREA AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST...DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THERE.
STILL EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREE INLAND. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
TONIGHT AND IN THE 70S.
THU...HIGH MOISTURE WITH NEAR 2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF WEAK LOW INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
EASTERN GULF MATERIALIZES AND PROVIDES MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MOS POPS ARE 70-80 PERCENT AND WITH VALUES LIKE
THAT...GUIDANCE IS USUALLY DIFFICULT TO BEAT.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SO KNOCKED A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF MOS MAX TEMPS WHICH WERE IN THE LOWER 90S
AT MANY SITES. WITH SLIGHTLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND AVERAGE
LOOKING MID LEVEL TEMPS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HEAVIER FRONTAL BAND PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THU EVENING AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS POPS WHICH ARE
AROUND 40 PERCENT. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP MAY CONTINUE PAST
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
FRI...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN. THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND FOR CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE THIS SMALL CHANCE. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID
80S INLAND.
SAT-NEXT WED...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN
TURNS NORTHWEST EARLY/MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP IT
DRY AND TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MINS
MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S
OVER THE INTERIOR. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS SHOWN BY THE GFS PRODUCING WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
MOS POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE SHOWER
CHANCES. TEMPS EARLY-MID WEEK LOOK AVERAGE...LOWS MID-UPPER 60S
AND HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COME OFF THE OCEAN AND WORK THEIR WAY QUICKLY
FROM THE COAST INLAND TO KLEE. FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE GOING VFR WITH STATUS FRAC AND STRATOCU/FL010-FL040 BEST
BET FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
IN WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGHER SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
CNTRL/WCNTRL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY ESE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS INTERIOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON. FROM KTIX-KMLB-KVRB-KFPR-KSUA ESE WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOCTURNAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE AREA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS FROM 4NM OFF
PORT CANAVERAL TO 12NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 4 FEET AT 4 AND
6NM OFF THE BEACH TO 5 TO 6 FEET FROM 20NM TO 120NM OFFSHORE.
THE LATEST RUC 12 HOUR FORECAST SERIES SHOWS A 3 MB GRADIENT FROM
AROUND MIAMI TO JACKSONVILLE. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS
GOOD. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE MOVES EAST TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...ESE WINDS 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE SOUTH
OF THE BREVARD-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE AND 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. WILL
CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY. BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WINDS APPROACH
20 KTS AND SEA BUILD TO 6 FT. WILL BRIEF DAY SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM
TO UPGRADE FOR LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT IF NECESSARY.
THU-FRI...POOR TO MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
AHEAD/BEHIND COOL FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS THU
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY FRI. A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL OCCUR THU INTO THU EVENING THEN FRI LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE MORNING.
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL
PROVIDE A MAINLY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-15
KNOTS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 74 88 62 / 50 50 70 40
MCO 89 72 89 65 / 50 40 70 40
MLB 87 76 90 65 / 50 50 70 40
VRB 86 76 87 68 / 50 50 70 40
LEE 89 72 86 62 / 50 40 70 40
SFB 90 73 89 64 / 50 40 70 40
ORL 89 74 89 65 / 50 40 70 40
FPR 85 75 87 69 / 50 50 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
723 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. GUSTY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE OVER/AROUND THE TERMINALS. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
..CORRECTED MISSPELLING IN SEVENTH LINE...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY
AND THURSDAY, LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY. ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THE HRRR DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH OUT THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THE PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES TODAY AND CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES ON THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
MID MAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
THUNDER BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ALONG
WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE WITH WPC QPF ONLY DEPICTING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE HOWEVER COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHEREVER ECHOES MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA.
THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER CONDITIONS IS A
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF DRYING TO THE AREA AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WITH PWAT FALLING TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DRY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PWAT FALLING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IF THIS
MATERIALIZES, IT WILL BE LOWEST PWAT VALUES FOR MAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE 1948. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST, A LARGE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A DRY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AT 15-20 KNOTS
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE AGAIN TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 72 / 60 50 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 74 / 60 50 70 50
MIAMI 84 76 86 74 / 60 50 70 50
NAPLES 88 73 85 72 / 40 40 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
...CORRECTED MISSPELLING IN SEVENTH LINE...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY
AND THURSDAY, LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY. ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THE HRRR DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH OUT THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE THE PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES TODAY AND CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES ON THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
MID MAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
THUNDER BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ALONG
WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE WITH WPC QPF ONLY DEPICTING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE HOWEVER COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHEREVER ECHOES MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA.
THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER CONDITIONS IS A
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF DRYING TO THE AREA AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WITH PWAT FALLING TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DRY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PWAT FALLING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IF THIS
MATERIALIZES, IT WILL BE LOWEST PWAT VALUES FOR MAY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE 1948. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST, A LARGE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A DRY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AT 15-20 KNOTS
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE AGAIN TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 72 / 60 50 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 74 / 60 50 70 50
MIAMI 84 76 86 74 / 60 50 70 50
NAPLES 88 73 85 72 / 40 40 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL AGAIN FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT PASSING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT MID EVENING. SKIES
HAD CLEARED AT METTER AND MILLEN GEORGIA...DECREASING CLOUDS
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FORECAST ISSUE IS THE ONGOING BOUT OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN FALLING ATOP A 7.1 FT MLLW HIGH TIDE IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS MOVING INTO CENTRAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. STANDING WATER
LOOKS TO BE A CERTAINTY AND WE HAVE RECENTLY ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY TO TREND INTO A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED BUT POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS 1-2 INCHES QUICKLY IN
THE PENINSULA AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTH TOWARD PARTS OF NE CHARLESTON COUNTY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MESO-LOW TAKING SHAPE JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE 00Z HRRR MODEL INDICATES THIS
LOW WILL TRANSLATE NE ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO A POSITION EAST
OF CAPE ROMAIN BY 06Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS CHARLESTON AND
BERKLEY COUNTIES IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE SHIFT UP THE CAROLINA COAST.
OUR UPDATE ADJUSTED POPS AND SOME FALLING DEW POINTS INLAND. SKY
COVER ALSO ARRANGED TO SHOW THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER FROM THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A NOTABLY DIFFERENT AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40
DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVIDENCE OF LOWER
HUMIDITY...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT FAR OFFSHORE
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...SUPPORTING BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA BY
THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
WEAKENING GRADIENT ACCORDINGLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR MID MAY. WILL ADVERTISE LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PRESSED SOUTH
AND EAST AS A BACKDOOR FRONT TAKES SHAPE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...YET ANY DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE CONFINED
WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL THUS KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 80S SOUTH. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING AS COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST...TEMPORARILY AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
TROUGH WHILE ALLOWING THE BACKDOOR FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIP
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS IN
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
LATE IN THE DAY. PREFER TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIME FRAME...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN UPSTAIRS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WELL-PRONOUNCED OMEGA BLOCK
BY MID WEEK...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GULF...BOUNDED ON EITHER SIDE BY DEEP CYCLONES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGHS. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WASHES OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THERE AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE AN MCS WILL DROP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH
IT ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VSBYS IN RAIN EXPECTED
UNTIL THE 03Z TIME WHEN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND A SURFACE WAVE
MOVE BY OR OUT TO THE EAST. TSTMS WERE NEAR THE TERMINAL AT 02Z
ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINS. CONFIDENCE GOOD THAT CIGS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THEN WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BE
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS.
KSAV..RAIN AND STORMS OFF TO THE EAST AT 00Z WITH A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT HOUR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR BY LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE GEORGIA COASTAL CORRIDOR. VFR ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A RISK
OF SUB-FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH A
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE W BEHIND THE FRONT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE...ALTHOUGH
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 6 FT SEAS. MARINERS
ARE REMINDED TO MAINTAIN A WEATHER WATCH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 1 NM ALONG
COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES WILL FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MARINE CONDITIONS
TO STEADILY IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IN CONTROL WILL
WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY LATER MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN SPLITS INTO TWO CENTERS
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN HIGH TO SETTLE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...A 2-3 FT 7-8
SECOND PERIOD SWELL AND THE FULL MOON WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. LINGERING
SWELL ENERGY WILL ALLOW THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE ON FRIDAY...WHILE
BEACHES TO THE SOUTH WILL BE IN A LOW RISK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 PM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR MAY 17TH...
KCHS...49 SET IN 1984 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...48 SET IN 2006 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...54 SET IN 1984.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
107 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS WE REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED AND VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN.
A RATHER AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO THIS FLOW PATTERN IS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WEDGED
BETWEEN RIDGE AXISES OVER BOTH COASTS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE OZARKS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A RATHER STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES ACROSS THIS SAME
REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00 UTC RAOBS MEASURED A 15 DEGREE CELSIUS
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KDVN (+1C) AND KILN (+16).
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE POTENT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX/IMPULSE CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A LOWER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WILL
LIKELY RACE NEARLY DUE NORTHWARD UP ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA OR FAR
WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK LOOKS TO PLACE MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM.
IF THIS WERE MARCH...OR EVEN APRIL FOR THAT MATTER...THIS COULD BE A
DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING
MID MAY...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO RESULT IN A COLD RAINY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GOOD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE COMPLEMENTED
NICELY BY A STOUT BAND OF LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH...I EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD COME CLOSE TO AN
INCH WITH THIS EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A QUICK MOVER...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY PUNCH NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO END BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEASTERLY COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE DAY TODAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS...EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO
THE AN EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...IT
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST THERE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS...NEAR THE LOW 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIKELY SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA. RAIN MAY LINGER A BIT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW FOR A PERIOD LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.THE CENTER OF THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WISCONSIN...AND AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES ROTATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS...ADDITIONAL SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF SOME
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
MY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE PROGGED
TO BE AROUND -30 C WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BOTH AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON
THE AREA...ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A NICE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS/GUSTS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING.
* RAIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT.
* CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ARRIVING EARLIER THEN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ENTERING THE TERMINALS AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. A STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL OCCUR
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO ARRIVE. A PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CEILINGS ALSO LIKELY FALLING TO IFR DURING THIS TIME...BEFORE
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIP EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEFORE BETTER CLEARING
ARRIVES BY MID DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR ORD...BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE
WEST.
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE THE
HIGHEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS
DIMINISH WHILE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. A CONTINUED
DIMINISHING TREND IS LIKELY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND IF WINDS
BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH...A LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR
ORD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN...MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/DURATION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND FOR IFR.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...SCT SHRA. NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTN LAKE BREEZE SHIFT POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
314 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY WHILE A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES EASTWARD TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN A
VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH GENERALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WHILE THE GULF COAST LOW FURTHER DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADIER NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A
MORE VARIABLE WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH WILL TURN EAST OR
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. THE GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO LAKE HURON THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO INTENSIFY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL START TO
FILTER IN THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER MIXING WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SET UP LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL IN THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO WORK IN SO MIXING MAY BE MINIMAL BEFORE WINDS START
TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
FOR NOW BUT MENTION GALE POTENTIAL IN THE GLF/NSH PRODUCTS. THE LONG
NORTH FETCH WILL TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER THURSDAY WITH
SEAS PEAKING DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF
BUT THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME QUITE VARIABLE FRIDAY. ERRATIC WIND
DIRECTION WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
Deep trof aloft associated with developing low over the Gulf Coast
this morning. Plenty of moisture streaming into the region and
rain is spreading across the Midwest. Though the activity is
currently focused just north of the Ohio River Valley, HRRR model
is persistent in continuing to develop and spread out the
precipitation through the afternoon. Going forecast is doing well
with temperatures almost holding steady/barely rising and PoPs
increasing through the afternoon and into the evening. Not
planning any updates to the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
Developing low moving out over the next 24 hrs keeping BKN/OVC low
and -ra for the forecast...mainly low MVFR with some IFR
conditions possible. DEC and CMI already dropped to MVFR cigs
with developing rain across the region. Expect to see the same to
the NWrn terminals throughout the afternoon/evening. Time heights
showing abundant moisture aloft to keep clouds in place overnight
and through morning...with some breaks possible after sunrise.
Have started the trend back to the MVFR/VFR break, but little
confidence at this point. Tightening pressure gradient will create
some gusty conditions in the overnight hours and through tomorrow
morning.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
An unsettled weather pattern looks to continue across central and
southeast IL the next few days along with cool temperatures. 00Z
short range models are in fair agreement next few days and models
show much of CWA will see another round of showers today and
tonight and heaviest over eastern/se IL where around 1 inch or
more of rain expected.
Early morning surface map shows a frontal boundary stretched from
nw Ohio through mid KY/TN and central MS/LA. 1015 mb surface low
pressure was near the LA coast. Radar mosaic shows showers se of a
Danville to Charleston to Effingham line and lifting nne into east
central and especially se IL. A few heavier showers near the
Wabash river while thunderstorms are further se in warm sector over
TN and southern KY. Cooler temps are in the upper 40s north of
I-72 and lower 50s from I-72 south. Aloft a strong upper level
trof was over the Great Plains with strong upper level ridges off
the Atlantic and west coasts.
Models shows surface low pressure over the southern MS river
valley strengthening as it ejects nne along frontal boundary
reaching southern Indiana by midnight tonight and into eastern
lower MI by early afternoon Thu. Water vapor loop shows a tropical
plume of deep moisture streaming northward from the western gulf
of Mexico into IL so this could bring some heavy rains around 1
inch or more over eastern IL today into tonight. NW areas will
likely stay dry this morning but see rain chances increase during
the afternoon and evening. SPC keeps slight risk of severe storms
se of IL today with chance of thunderstorms over far se IL near
the Wabash river. Tropical plume of moisture shifts east/ne of
central IL during overnight though strong upper level trof moving
into IL Thu and Fri to keep good chances of rain showers around
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Sided
toward cooler highs in the mid 50s to near 60F through Friday due
to abundant cloud cover and cooling 850 mb temps. Lows in the
upper 30s and lower 40s Thu and Fri night and thinking Friday
night to be the coolest night.
Strong/large upper level trof starts to pull ne into Great Lakes
region Sat so just have isolated showers possible with more peaks
of sunshine and highs in the lower 60s, with a few upper 50s from
I-74 ne.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
Extended models shower upper level ridge shifting east into the MS
river valley early next work week with below normal temperatures
this weekend moderating closer to normal by middle of next week.
Dry conditions looks to prevail Sunday through Monday across
central/se IL. Then short waves riding over top of upper level
ridge along with developing frontal boundary from central plains
into central IL to bring isolated convection to mainly northern
areas from Monday night through Wed.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS WE REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED AND VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN.
A RATHER AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO THIS FLOW PATTERN IS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WEDGED
BETWEEN RIDGE AXISES OVER BOTH COASTS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE OZARKS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A RATHER STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES ACROSS THIS SAME
REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00 UTC RAOBS MEASURED A 15 DEGREE CELSIUS
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KDVN (+1C) AND KILN (+16).
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE POTENT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX/IMPULSE CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A LOWER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WILL
LIKELY RACE NEARLY DUE NORTHWARD UP ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA OR FAR
WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK LOOKS TO PLACE MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM.
IF THIS WERE MARCH...OR EVEN APRIL FOR THAT MATTER...THIS COULD BE A
DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING
MID MAY...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO RESULT IN A COLD RAINY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GOOD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE COMPLEMENTED
NICELY BY A STOUT BAND OF LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH...I EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COULD COME CLOSE TO AN
INCH WITH THIS EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A QUICK MOVER...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY PUNCH NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO END BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEASTERLY COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE DAY TODAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS...EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO
THE AN EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...IT
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST THERE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS...NEAR THE LOW 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIKELY SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA. RAIN MAY LINGER A BIT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW FOR A PERIOD LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.THE CENTER OF THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WISCONSIN...AND AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES ROTATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS...ADDITIONAL SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF SOME
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
MY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE PROGGED
TO BE AROUND -30 C WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BOTH AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCT
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON
THE AREA...ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A NICE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NNE STEADILY INCREASING IN SPEED THROUGH MID DAY WITH GUSTS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
* WINDS/GUSTS INCREASE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
* RAIN SPREADS IN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NNW AND REMAIN GUSTY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS.
MDB/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
BUT WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF COAST. LIGHT NNW WINDS WILL TURN NNE THIS MORNING
WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING. EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS WILL
SEE A RANGE OF SPEEDS AS VELOCITY INCREASES I.E. 6-9 KT INCREASING
TO 9-12 KT...THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS SHOULD ALSO START TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
PERSISTENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AS WELL. SPEEDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND AM CONCERNED THAT THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL ADVANCE TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN TO LAKE HURON
THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPLY DRY AIR TO THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
EVENING SO THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS WELL AS SLOW THE LOWERING OF CIGS. GYY SHOULD SEE
RAIN MOVE IN FIRST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMAINING SITES
SEEING INCREASING COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
ARRIVES...WITH LOWERING TO IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL TURN NNW
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WHICH SHOULD HELP CIGS IMPROVE. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOWEVER...WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH NNE WIND AND SPEEDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC SPEEDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN MOVING IN THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THEN IFR
CIGS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS SHIFTING NNW THURSDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR.
MDB/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE SHRA AND MVFR.
FRIDAY...SCT SHRA. NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTN LAKE BREEZE SHIFT POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
314 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY WHILE A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES EASTWARD TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN A
VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH GENERALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WHILE THE GULF COAST LOW FURTHER DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADIER NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A
MORE VARIABLE WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH WILL TURN EAST OR
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. THE GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO LAKE HURON THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO INTENSIFY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL START TO
FILTER IN THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER MIXING WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SET UP LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL IN THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO WORK IN SO MIXING MAY BE MINIMAL BEFORE WINDS START
TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
FOR NOW BUT MENTION GALE POTENTIAL IN THE GLF/NSH PRODUCTS. THE LONG
NORTH FETCH WILL TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER THURSDAY WITH
SEAS PEAKING DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF
BUT THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME QUITE VARIABLE FRIDAY. ERRATIC WIND
DIRECTION WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1041 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
Deep trof aloft associated with developing low over the Gulf Coast
this morning. Plenty of moisture streaming into the region and
rain is spreading across the Midwest. Though the activity is
currently focused just north of the Ohio River Valley, HRRR model
is persistent in continuing to develop and spread out the
precipitation through the afternoon. Going forecast is doing well
with temperatures almost holding steady/barely rising and PoPs
increasing through the afternoon and into the evening. Not
planning any updates to the forecast at this time.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 618 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
All sites will begin as VFR as mid and high clouds will be over
the entire area this morning, in advance of the next weather
system coming up from the south. Some uncertainty to the timing of
the pcpn starting, but best estimate is around 18z at CMI and then
spreading westward, reaching PIA around 21z. Conditions will be
VFR to start, but conditions will get worse as the afternoon
progresses into the evening. More steady rain will move into the
area, affecting the TAFs with vis around 3-4sm and cigs 1.5kft in
the east, to 2.5kft in the west. Around midnight, conditions will
decrease again, dropping below MVFR to IFR conditions CMI, DEC,
and BMI. PIA and SPI will see lower MVFR conditions with vis down
to 3sm and cigs around 1.5kft. Winds will be northerly through the
period, but increasing in speed as the gradient tightens in
response to the low pressure area moving up the line into the
area. Could also be some gusty winds during the evening and
overnight hours as the low moves into westerly IND.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
An unsettled weather pattern looks to continue across central and
southeast IL the next few days along with cool temperatures. 00Z
short range models are in fair agreement next few days and models
show much of CWA will see another round of showers today and
tonight and heaviest over eastern/se IL where around 1 inch or
more of rain expected.
Early morning surface map shows a frontal boundary stretched from
nw Ohio through mid KY/TN and central MS/LA. 1015 mb surface low
pressure was near the LA coast. Radar mosaic shows showers se of a
Danville to Charleston to Effingham line and lifting nne into east
central and especially se IL. A few heavier showers near the
Wabash river while thunderstorms are further se in warm sector over
TN and southern KY. Cooler temps are in the upper 40s north of
I-72 and lower 50s from I-72 south. Aloft a strong upper level
trof was over the Great Plains with strong upper level ridges off
the Atlantic and west coasts.
Models shows surface low pressure over the southern MS river
valley strengthening as it ejects nne along frontal boundary
reaching southern Indiana by midnight tonight and into eastern
lower MI by early afternoon Thu. Water vapor loop shows a tropical
plume of deep moisture streaming northward from the western gulf
of Mexico into IL so this could bring some heavy rains around 1
inch or more over eastern IL today into tonight. NW areas will
likely stay dry this morning but see rain chances increase during
the afternoon and evening. SPC keeps slight risk of severe storms
se of IL today with chance of thunderstorms over far se IL near
the Wabash river. Tropical plume of moisture shifts east/ne of
central IL during overnight though strong upper level trof moving
into IL Thu and Fri to keep good chances of rain showers around
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Sided
toward cooler highs in the mid 50s to near 60F through Friday due
to abundant cloud cover and cooling 850 mb temps. Lows in the
upper 30s and lower 40s Thu and Fri night and thinking Friday
night to be the coolest night.
Strong/large upper level trof starts to pull ne into Great Lakes
region Sat so just have isolated showers possible with more peaks
of sunshine and highs in the lower 60s, with a few upper 50s from
I-74 ne.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
Extended models shower upper level ridge shifting east into the MS
river valley early next work week with below normal temperatures
this weekend moderating closer to normal by middle of next week.
Dry conditions looks to prevail Sunday through Monday across
central/se IL. Then short waves riding over top of upper level
ridge along with developing frontal boundary from central plains
into central IL to bring isolated convection to mainly northern
areas from Monday night through Wed.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
748 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF INDIANA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DENSER CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY FRONT WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS N INDIANA AND FAR
S LWR MI PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH SUN SETTING...DIURNAL CU WAS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING. AS A RESULT...PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES APPEARS ON TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SE INTO
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE CAPTURED PRECIP
TRENDS WELL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 2 BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
FIRST BAND...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM MOLINE SE TO CHAMPAIGN WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY ENE AND MAY DISSIPATE ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY BAND
BEHIND IT (FROM PEORIA TO EFFINGHAM IL). ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SW SECTIONS...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK
IN BY 6Z.
AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
GRIDS/ZONES/HEADLINE WITH OVERALL SPIRIT OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY
AT NOON WERE ONLY 37 DEGREES AT MICHIGAN CITY AND 36 BENTON HARBOR.
GIVEN THE CHILLY AIRMASS...DECOUPLING WINDS...AND SOME CLEARING...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN AREAS
TO AROUND 34 DEGREES...CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. EXPECT RECENT RAINFALL
AND SOME CLOUDS TO HELP TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ALSO
CONCERN FOR GROUND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT FOG
OUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES. OTHERWISE...CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS INCLUDING MONTICELLO.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SECONDARY JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF WRN LAKES TROUGH WILL
BE ON THE WAY OUT FRI NIGHT. WILL HOLD W/EVENING MENTION SE BUT
REMAINDER XPCD TO REMAIN DRY. HWVR W/MEAT OF COLD CORE UPR LOW STILL
OVERTOP THE AREA SAT ALG W/RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR BELIEVE ITS
PRUDENT TO EXPAND POPS A BIT SAT AFTN ESP IN LIGHT OF BNDRY LYR
MODIFICATION.
UPR TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY ACRS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MON WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE BLOWS UP AHD OF NEW SW DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY W/80S XPCD BY WED.
INITIAL POOR LL THETA-E RTN INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN RIDGE
DOES NOT FVR MID PD LOW CHC POPS AND WILL DROP THIS CYCLE ESP IN
CONTEXT OF WWD HOLDING UPR TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE GREAT BASIN
AND LEE SIDE SFC REFLECTION HOLDING FIRM VCNTY ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD THIS EVENING AND HOPEFULLY HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME CONCERNS LINGER WITH DETERIORATION IN FLGT
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSE AND SENDS SCT
SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF THE AREA. ALSO,,,WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LGT
WINDS...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG DOES LOOM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS VFR AND
MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ004>007.
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS OHIO TO EASTERN TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING. SEVERAL FRONTAL WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 WILL OCCUR.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
GRIDS/ZONES PATCHED UP TO KEEP HIGHER POPS SE THROUGH AROUND 6Z
AND THEN TRANSITION HIGHER (YET ONLY CHC) POPS TO NW OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MAINLY BYPASS
THE SE AREAS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER MAY STILL CLIP SE SECTIONS...WARRANTING CONTINUED LIKELY
POPS WITH MENTION OF THUNDER.
AS THIS DEPARTS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NE
MISSOURI/SW ILLINOIS AND TRACK TOWARDS CENTRAL/WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA BRINGING A DECENT SHOT AT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN GENERALLY SPOT ON FOR MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS IT FOR THE GRIDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
PRE/FRONTAL TROF...BUT FARTHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS
HAD DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES RISING WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN FRONT OF THE STORMS
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...AND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.75...BUT STORMS WERE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP NEARLY ALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. FAVORED THE 12KM
NAM WHICH HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND APPEARS
TO BE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER TROF WELL. RAISED RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THESE EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
POTENT SW DISTURBANCE EDGING OUT OF NM THIS AFTN AND THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING FNTL WAVE ALG TRAILING CDFNT
WED AS THE ENTIRE SYS TURNS NE AND PHASES W/NRN STREAM SW AMPLIFYING
RAPIDLY SEWD. NET RESULT LOOKS TO BE A SIG CYCLONE WRAPPING UP ACRS
THE WRN OH VALLEY. TRACK OF SFC LOW FM SW-NE INDIANA POINTS TO
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RIGHT THROUGH CNTRL/WRN CWA W/LOW TOPPED CONVN
LIKELY ERN HALF. WILL EXPAND THUNDER WWD WED NIGHT.
SYS LIFTS OUT RAPIDLY NEWD THU-FRI W/SOME DIURNALLY FVRD SHRA PSBL
N/NE THU AFTN AND S/SE FRI AFTN AS COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES IN
OVERHEAD. OTRWS UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH SUN W/PEAK DEPARTURES NR
-20 DEGREES THU-FRI. MOIST CYCLONIC FLW AND LIKELY EXTENSIVE LOW CLD
CVR SHLD STAVE OFF POTENTIAL FROST THU/FRI NIGHT BUT W/MORE SIG
DRYING INDICATED SAT AFTN AND POSITION OF SFC RIDGE AXIS WORRIED
SOMEWHAT THAT NRN AREAS COULD FROST SUN AM HWVR WILL AWAIT SPECIFICS
OFFERED VIA SHORTER TERM MOS GUIDANCE WINDOW BY THU.
OTRWS PATTN PROGRESSION ALOFT WILL YIELD SIG WARMING TREND TO AOA
NORMAL BY WED AS NEW TROUGH DIGS IN OUT WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
CONTINUED POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IFR TO FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. STALLED/SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH OHIO TO EAST CENTRAL TN.
NUMEROUS FRONTAL WAVES TO EMANATE FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH KFWA WITHIN RICHEST MOISTURE PLUME/DEEP
SATURATION THROUGHOUT. INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS FARTHER NW AT
KSBN...THOUGH WITH TIME AND APPROACH OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE LATE
TONIGHT...ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING INTO
IFR DOMINANT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AT 19Z...THE SHARP COLD FRONT
WAS WELL TO THE EAST FROM LOWER MI SOUTH TO LA. AN EXPANSIVE POST
FRONTAL STRATUS DECK EXTENDED WEST INTO CENTRAL IA. THE CLOUDS...
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS...WAS LIMITING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A FEW
DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG THE LAGGING 850 MB FRONT OVER
W CENTRAL IL NEAR MACOMB. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH REACHING FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO A SEPARATE
SOUTHERN STREAM VORTEX EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
OK PANHANDLE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AT 850 MB WERE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND NW IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON COOL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING MORE ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED BY RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATES THE STRATUS DECK
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SW
WITH SUPPORT FROM EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA WILL KEEP HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURE OR FROST TONIGHT...BUT STILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD
TOWARD MORNING SENDS TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL CLOSE TO ZERO C.
HAVE KEPT MINS NEAR TO BELOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FROM THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. DIURNALLY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GETS PULLED
NORTHEAST...SENDING LIFT INTO NORTHERN IL BY AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG
WITH A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING N-NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WHAT SHOULD
BE A VERY LOW QPF EVENT BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOW LEVELS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN THE SAME AIRMASS AS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 50S IN THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER AND DRY AIR MAY ALLOW AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE
MUCH LIKE TODAY LOOKED A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
IN THIS AIRMASS AND HAVE TRENDED NEAR TO BELOW THE COOLEST NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDES UP A STALLED FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DUMP CHILLY
AIR INTO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO ABOUT -2C OVER THE CWA. MODELS SIMILAR
IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN...TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA. I WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE INSTABILITY SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE (FOR MAY) DEEP TROUGH. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION THIS WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE
FAVORED TIME FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S BUT EXACT NUMBERS REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON SURGING WARMER AIR
INTO THE CWA...AND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...PUSHING IT OFF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO HANG ON TO THE
TROUGH IN THE EAST A BIT LONGER KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
NORMAL AND HOLDING OFF THE RAIN. WE WILL SEE.
21
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF BKN-
OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 6K AGL TO BECOME COMMON AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
COVERAGE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO KEEP AS VCSH AT BRL/MLI/CID AND LEAVE OUT
AT DBQ TERMINAL. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT Wed May 14 2014
...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
At 00z Wednesday a 500mb trough extended from the Panhandle of
Texas northward to an upper low located into western Manitoba. A
-31c upper level trough was located on the west side of the
Manitoba upper low over central Saskatchewan. A +90 knot upper
level jet streak was located near the base of this 500mb trough
over New Mexico. A surface to 850mb ridge axis was located over
the Central High Plains. 850mb temperatures at 00z Wednesday
ranging from +8 at Amarillo to +6c at Dodge City and +3c at Omaha.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
In areas of forecast lows from 33 to 36F, went with an NPW Frost
Advisory tonight, same time as the Freeze Warning, 09Z-13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A large scale high pressure system over Utah and Wyoming will move
just slightly southeast tonight, bringing decreasing winds and clear
skies. There is a swath of mid-level clouds in the 080 range across
Western Kansas this afternoon. With the suppression from the
southeastward progressing surface high pressure, skies will become
clear by midnight. Winds will decrease from the current breezy
conditions to around 10 MPH by 00z, and then even lower to 06-07
MPH after midnight. For this reason, I lowered temperatures in
the west to just below freezing, and posted another NPW Freeze
Warning for the 09Z to 13Z time range, basically west of a Scott
City to Hugoton line. The NAM and RUC models both support these
sub-freezing temperatures out west.
As for Wednesday, I made a few slight changes. There is an upper
level trough dragging through, with better dynamics to our north.
But, we could see a few sprinkles/virga Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Chose to go with scattered sprinkles since the
only support for any precipitation will be from the upper trough
crossing, with no significant lower level moisture, and only in our
northern 1/3rd of the CWA. Wednesday should be slightly warmer
than today, mainly based on the surface high pressure segmenting
into two high pressure centers, one in the Wyoming and the other
over Oklahoma. Surface winds Wednesday will start out light, then
be from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. This will not be a strong
down slope affect, but enough to push maximum temperatures upward
a couple to few degrees warmer than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A large upper level trough will develop over the upper midwest by
Thursday night as northern and southern stream troughs progress
eastward and merge together. Surface high pressure will generally
be situated across the central plains on the back side of the
trough. This will lead to fairly cool weather with highs in the
60s to near 70 Thursday. A few sprinkles are possible Thursday
afternoon given the cold upper level temperatures, but low level
moisture will be a limiting factor. A few showers are possible by
Friday, particularly in far western Kansas given the lack of
capping and where temperatures may reach the upper 70s. Saturday
night still looks cool as surface high pressure builds into
western Kansas. Lows could be cooler than currently forecasted,
with some upper 30s possible along interstate 70.
By Saturday and Sunday, the flow will become more westerly at mid
and high levels, which will allow for lee troughing and some
moisture return into western Kansas. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through this period, but no severe weather
or heavy rainfall is expected. High temperatures should remain
mainly in the 70s.
An upper level trough will develop near the West Coast by Monday and
then progress into the Rockies by Tuesday and Wednesday. Low level
moisture will continue to increase so that surface based CAPE will
be higher each day. Low level moisture return from the Gulf of
Mexico is progged to be rather limited even early next week since
the prior cold front late this week will have shunted the low
level moisture into the tropics. So instead of high CAPE ahead of
a dryline and along a weak frontal boundary, instability will be
rather marginal. However, given the presence of boundaries and at
least marginal to moderate CAPE values, thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out through Wednesday. Temperatures will be warming early
next week as well, with the warmest readings in far southwest
Kansas in the 90s, and cooler 80s along interstate 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
Northwest winds will be at 10 knots or less overnight and early
Wednesday as a surface to 850mb ridge axis builds across the
Central High Plains. VFR conditions will continue overnight and
Wednesday based on BUFR soundings indicating only mid level moisture
will be present under the 500mb trough as it crosses western Kansas over
the next 12 to 18 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 69 41 72 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 37 69 41 73 / 10 20 10 10
EHA 39 72 42 78 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 38 71 42 77 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 40 65 41 66 / 20 20 10 20
P28 42 69 44 71 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
this morning FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064-076-077-085-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
959 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH
SEEM TO AGREE THAT AS THE LINE OUT TO THE WEST APPROACHES IT WILL BE
BREAKING UP AROUND 8 AM AS IT IS ABOUT TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
11 AM...THE LINE WILL BE REDEVELOPING AND WILL GET PRETTY ACTIVE. THE
AIR IS VERY UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD SYNOPTIC SITUATION TO SEE SOME
GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS AGAIN DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME VALLEY FOG. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SKIES SCATTERING OUT THIS
EVENING. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT...THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT FORM. IF THEY SCATTER OUT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE IN PLACES. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE FORECAST. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGING ALONG THE US
WEST COAST. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...BUT ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHERN MO ATTM. THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO A CENTRAL WV TO
WESTERN NC LINE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LINGERS
AND SOME OF THIS APPEARS TO BE UPSLOPE DRIVEN WITH AN UPSLOPE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME BREAKS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY AND SOME
CLEARING OVER WESTERN TN AND EASTERN AR. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE NEARING THE
MID MS VALLEY OVER MO AND NORTHERN AR. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER ACROSS EAST KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SOME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
FOR A TIME AND SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR. DESPITE THAT...COLD
ADVECTION WOULD FAVOR THE COLDEST MIN T TONIGHT ON THE RIDGES.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON TIMING...SOME SHOWERS MIGHT APPROACH THE REGION
LATE...BUT WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION AND CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...MID LEVELS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCES OF THUNDER. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
WBZ HEIGHTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 6KFT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGER ON THE
NAM...BUT THE LOW LEVELS MORE MOIST WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN
INVERTED VA LOOK SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. ATTM...WE PLAN TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE HWO FOR FRI.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO NOSE TOWARD THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION NORTH
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE DEGREE OF CLEARING IS IN QUESTION...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FROST. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE
OF CLEARING IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE
AND STAYED VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. IF CLEARING WOULD OCCUR...THE
COOP MOS GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT THAT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY. WINDS LOOK TO BE
NEAR CALM DURING THIS PERIOD SO SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. MODELS
ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY MAY AFFECT OUR FORECAST
AREA. WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER WILL THERE BE. AT THIS TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS POINTING TOWARDS SKIES THAT ARE AT LEAST NOT
CLEAR. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK PROBABLE IN
THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS AND GFS MOS FOR COOP LOCATIONS IS EVEN
INDICATING SOME LOWER 30S FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS A
BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP WITH TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MS VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 24Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME VALLEY FOG. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SKIES SCATTERING OUT THIS
EVENING. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT...THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT FORM. IF THEY SCATTER OUT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE IN PLACES. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE FORECAST. AROUND 12
TO 15Z...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSHING A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GRAUPEL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
DUE TO THE TIME OF THE DAY THE LINE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...JUST WENT WITH SHOWERS AND NOT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
PUT IT IN THE TAF.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
808 PM CDT Thu May 15 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Main band of convection is in southeast IL/southwest IN and the
purchase area of west KY and continues to move east and will impact
the rest of southwest IN and the Pennyrile region of western KY.
Intensity of the storms has now lessened a bit, but we have had
plenty of pea to half inch size hail reports during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, along with some 40 to 50 mph
wind gusts. Expect this band of showers and isolated storms to
continue trekking east and then eventually east of our CWA over
the next few hours. There could still be some isolated small hail
reports, along with some heavy rainfall. Isolated showers
redeveloping over SEMO will move east as well and will likely
impact parts of southern IL and western KY before dissipating
later this evening. We should see clouds begin to clear out of the
region from west to east, which will help allow temperatures to
drop into the 40s, with some possible upper 30s in parts of SEMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Scattered showers are spreading through southeast Missouri as of
19Z. The mid-level cold pool will be overspreading that area
through the afternoon, so hail will be a concern. 12Z NAM and GFS
soundings do not indicate much instability, so not certain how
much large/severe hail there will be, but will be monitoring closely.
The main mid/upper-level trough will swing through the area
tonight, so showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to persist
through the evening and into the overnight hours. Figure that the
thunder concern will dwindle through the evening. By morning the
convection should be east of the area. However, as the upper low
pushes through Indiana, some scattered showers will be possible
mainly over the Evansville Tri State in the afternoon.
The 12Z NAM and GFS have come into agreement in bringing an band
of showers associated with a disturbance rotating through the base
of the main upper trough. The showers should dive southeast into
southeast Missouri Friday evening, and then eastward along the
Tennessee border overnight and into Saturday morning before
exiting the region. Now have a limited area of likely PoPs for
this event, with a sharp gradient to the north.
A similar scenario is advertised by the models Saturday night, but
this one should stay just south of our area.
Very dry air, dewpoints in the upper 20s, currently over
southeast Kansas, will slide eastward into our region tonight and
Friday. With clear skies and light winds expected across the
northern half of the area Friday night, there will be some
potential for frost formation. Lows in the upper 30s are not out
of the question along and north of Highway 13 and across the
Evansville Tri State. Guidance for KMVN would support middle 30s.
Anyway, will continue to monitor, but a Frost Advisory is
definitely in play Friday night.
As for temperatures, did not stray far from the consensus guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Models show an upper level ridge building northeast out of Texas
late in the weekend into the middle of next week. At the surface,
low pressure over the Central Plains will lift a warm front across
our region Monday night into Tuesday. GFS lifts the front across us
dry, while ECMWF does generate a few spits of QPF but is trending
drier. Will go for a dry forecast Sunday through Wednesday. ECMWF
tries to break down the upper level ridge late in the extended,
which would allow the front to drift back south, and brings some
light QPF into our northern counties Thursday. GFS keeps the front
well to our north, and thus keeps us dry. Will go with a dry
forecast for now due to the ECMWF trending toward the GFS.
Temperatures will continue to moderate toward seasonal readings
Sunday and Monday. With winds becoming southerly behind the front,
more significant warming is expected Tuesday through Thursday.
Readings will climb back to above seasonal values in the lower to
middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Latest HRRR guidance confines convection to the western half of
the area late this afternoon and into the evening. Not confident
enough in TS to mention it at any location, but may need to insert
it once the radar lights up. Decided to just TEMPO VFR shra for
now. Guidance does not bring convection to KEVV or KOWB until the
late evening into the overnight hours. Gave those sites a similar
treatment as the western sites. Winds will be generally from the
west aob 10kts this afternoon, and then light overnight. Some
gusts into the teens possible Friday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
THE GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH 154 THROUGH 8
PM THAT INCLUDES THE NW TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS...WE HAVE ALSO ADDED
SEVERE ATTRIBUTE TO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EVENING.
THE SEVERE ATTRIBUTE WAS CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE STRONG CLUSTER OF CELLS
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY
NORTH AND EAST GENERALLY PUTS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND WITH WIND FIELDS SET TO STRENGTHEN
SOME OF THOSE COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A STRAY TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE... THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED MAINLY FOR RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. MID LEVEL RIDGING LONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED OUT BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 65 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS IN KY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS
INTO WESTERN KY THIS EVENING...THIS WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A
BIT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST IN/NORTHWEST
OH REGION BY DAWN ON THURSDAY AND THIS LOW WILL SEND THE BOUNDARY
EAST AS A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXIT INTO
WV UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY ON THU. PW IS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR HIGHER BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND
2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
RECENT RUNS OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND THE
12Z NAM SUGGEST MOSTLY JUST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS LI
IS PROGGED TO REACH -5C OR LOWER AND CAPE TO REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY REGION WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DEEPER LIFT WITHIN THE DEEP
MOISTURE LAYER. THE INCREASED SHEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THE EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STORM ORGANIZATION
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG OR WEST OF I 75 AND OVER OUR NW COUNTIES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN COULD END UP
BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT. WITH THE PW FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS IT
IS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL LINGER
IN EASTERN LOCATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO WV. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS AND THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPING AND ARE MOVING NORTH NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THESE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND RAP REALLY TARGET THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...IF STORMS
DEVELOP...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING EXCEPT TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PRESENTLY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ITS WAVE EAST ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST SFC CONDITIONS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR...LOOKS LIKE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
THIS COULD SEND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SET THE STAGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR
IS NOT FANTASTIC...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
GOOD...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT...NEARLY ALL
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDES IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SEEMS CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS SUPPORTING A BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
GOOD CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ANTICIPATED...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ON THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
THUS...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ALSO
EXITING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRECIPITATION
THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL PULL INTO CANADA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST U.S. NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THIS
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. IF THE PRIMARY RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATER AS WE REMAIN IN GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER IF THE RIDGE AXIS IS FURTHER EAST WE WILL BE
DRIER AND WARMER. AT THIS TIME THE CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL LOAD
SHOULD BE A GOOD STARTING POINT FORECAST TO COVER THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHARP MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY MOVE CLOSE TO SME...AND
SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT LOZ...JKL AND SJS MAINLY AFTER 0Z. ISOLATE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 0Z AND LATER SO HAVE VCTS
TO START THE PERIOD AT LOZ...JKL AND SJS. ANY LOCATION THAT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT FROM A STORM COULD HAVE IFR OR LOWER VIS AND OR CIGS
BRIEFLY. LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES...SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
AFTER 3Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED MAINLY FOR RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. MID LEVEL RIDGING LONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED OUT BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 65 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS IN KY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS
INTO WESTERN KY THIS EVENING...THIS WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A
BIT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST IN/NORTHWEST
OH REGION BY DAWN ON THURSDAY AND THIS LOW WILL SEND THE BOUNDARY
EAST AS A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXIT INTO
WV UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY ON THU. PW IS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR HIGHER BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND
2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
RECENT RUNS OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND THE
12Z NAM SUGGEST MOSTLY JUST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS LI
IS PROGGED TO REACH -5C OR LOWER AND CAPE TO REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY REGION WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DEEPER LIFT WITHIN THE DEEP
MOISTURE LAYER. THE INCREASED SHEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THE EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STORM ORGANIZATION
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG OR WEST OF I 75 AND OVER OUR NW COUNTIES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN COULD END UP
BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT. WITH THE PW FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS IT
IS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL LINGER
IN EASTERN LOCATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO WV. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS AND THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPING AND ARE MOVING NORTH NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THESE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND RAP REALLY TARGET THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...IF STORMS
DEVELOP...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING EXCEPT TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PRESENTLY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ITS WAVE EAST ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST SFC CONDITIONS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR...LOOKS LIKE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
THIS COULD SEND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SET THE STAGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR
IS NOT FANTASTIC...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
GOOD...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT...NEARLY ALL
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDES IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SEEMS CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS SUPPORTING A BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
GOOD CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ANTICIPATED...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ON THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
THUS...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ALSO
EXITING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL KEEP A PRECIPITATION
THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL PULL INTO CANADA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST U.S. NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THIS
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. IF THE PRIMARY RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATER AS WE REMAIN IN GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER IF THE RIDGE AXIS IS FURTHER EAST WE WILL BE
DRIER AND WARMER. AT THIS TIME THE CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL LOAD
SHOULD BE A GOOD STARTING POINT FORECAST TO COVER THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
TODAY...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. GOING TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OF COURSE ANTICIPATING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 9 TO 12 HOURS IS HARD TO DO...SO WILL
REMAIN GENERIC WITH THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL WE CAN GET
SOME BETTER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1125 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED MAINLY FOR RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. MID LEVEL RIDGING LONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED OUT BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 65 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS IN KY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS
INTO WESTERN KY THIS EVENING...THIS WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A
BIT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST IN/NORTHWEST
OH REGION BY DAWN ON THURSDAY AND THIS LOW WILL SEND THE BOUNDARY
EAST AS A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXIT INTO
WV UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY ON THU. PW IS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR HIGHER BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND
2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
RECENT RUNS OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND THE
12Z NAM SUGGEST MOSTLY JUST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS LI
IS PROGGED TO REACH -5C OR LOWER AND CAPE TO REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY REGION WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DEEPER LIFT WITHIN THE DEEP
MOISTURE LAYER. THE INCREASED SHEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THE EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STORM ORGANIZATION
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG OR WEST OF I 75 AND OVER OUR NW COUNTIES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN COULD END UP
BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT. WITH THE PW FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS IT
IS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL LINGER
IN EASTERN LOCATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO WV. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS AND THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPING AND ARE MOVING NORTH NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THESE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND RAP REALLY TARGET THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...IF STORMS
DEVELOP...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING EXCEPT TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PRESENTLY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ITS WAVE EAST ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST SFC CONDITIONS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR...LOOKS LIKE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
THIS COULD SEND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SET THE STAGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR
IS NOT FANTASTIC...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
GOOD...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT...NEARLY ALL
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDES IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SEEMS CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS SUPPORTING A BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
GOOD CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ANTICIPATED...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ON THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
THUS...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ALSO
EXITING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS NIGHT FOR THE MID
LEVELS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL SHOW A LARGE
AND DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 00Z FRIDAY WITH A
SWEEP OF WEAKENING ENERGY CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO WANE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY
WHEN THE GEM HOLDS ON TO A STRONGER LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SIMILAR GFS AND ECMWF. THE SOLID AGREEMENT OF THE LATTER TWO MODELS
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THEIR UPPER LOW NOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND KENTUCKY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH. PACKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE WITH ONE LAST BATCH
CROSSING OVERHEAD LATER THAT NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS. AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF...IN A SWAP OF POSITIONS WITH
THE GFS...STARTS TO AMPLIFY THE REMAINS OF THE LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CORE OF ITS TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
CERTAINLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ITS SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW IN CONTRAST TO
THE OPEN TROUGH FROM THE GFS CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE EERIE.
REGARDLESS...THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AND ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RIDGING FROM MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS. TO CLOSE OUT THE
EXTENDED...THE ECMWF DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES
WITH ITS EASTERN LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS VERSION...BUT ALSO STRONG AND BROAD ENOUGH
TO STILL DOMINATE THE WX FOR THE JKL CWA. FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART...THOUGH PREFERRED A MORE
GRADUAL EVOLUTION THAN WHAT IT PORTRAYED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW
CYCLES OVERHEAD...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER AIR AND A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WIN OUT AND LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SFC HIGH...AND A LOW SHAPING UP WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SUPPRESS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER GOING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
LATER ON AND ALSO TO EMPHASIZE MORE OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRIDS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO BETTER
DEPICT RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
TODAY...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. GOING TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OF COURSE ANTICIPATING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 9 TO 12 HOURS IS HARD TO DO...SO WILL
REMAIN GENERIC WITH THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL WE CAN GET
SOME BETTER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPING AND ARE MOVING NORTH NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THESE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND RAP REALLY TARGET THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...IF STORMS
DEVELOP...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING EXCEPT TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PRESENTLY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ITS WAVE EAST ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TODAY...INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST SFC CONDITIONS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR...LOOKS LIKE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
THIS COULD SEND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SET THE STAGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR
IS NOT FANTASTIC...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
GOOD...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT...NEARLY ALL
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDES IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SEEMS CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS SUPPORTING A BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE AND TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
GOOD CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ANTICIPATED...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ON THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
THUS...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ALSO
EXITING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS NIGHT FOR THE MID
LEVELS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL SHOW A LARGE
AND DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 00Z FRIDAY WITH A
SWEEP OF WEAKENING ENERGY CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO WANE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY
WHEN THE GEM HOLDS ON TO A STRONGER LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SIMILAR GFS AND ECMWF. THE SOLID AGREEMENT OF THE LATTER TWO MODELS
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THEIR UPPER LOW NOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND KENTUCKY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH. PACKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE WITH ONE LAST BATCH
CROSSING OVERHEAD LATER THAT NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS. AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF...IN A SWAP OF POSITIONS WITH
THE GFS...STARTS TO AMPLIFY THE REMAINS OF THE LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CORE OF ITS TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
CERTAINLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ITS SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW IN CONTRAST TO
THE OPEN TROUGH FROM THE GFS CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE EERIE.
REGARDLESS...THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AND ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RIDGING FROM MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS. TO CLOSE OUT THE
EXTENDED...THE ECMWF DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED STATES
WITH ITS EASTERN LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS VERSION...BUT ALSO STRONG AND BROAD ENOUGH
TO STILL DOMINATE THE WX FOR THE JKL CWA. FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART...THOUGH PREFERRED A MORE
GRADUAL EVOLUTION THAN WHAT IT PORTRAYED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW
CYCLES OVERHEAD...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER AIR AND A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WIN OUT AND LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SFC HIGH...AND A LOW SHAPING UP WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SUPPRESS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER GOING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
LATER ON AND ALSO TO EMPHASIZE MORE OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRIDS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO BETTER
DEPICT RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
TODAY...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. GOING TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OF COURSE ANTICIPATING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 9 TO 12 HOURS IS HARD TO DO...SO WILL
REMAIN GENERIC WITH THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL WE CAN GET
SOME BETTER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
129 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
ONLY A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OUT THERE
PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARIES CONTINUING TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA FROM EARLIER DAY CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF EXPANDING AS THEY MOVE
NORTH. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN SOME
FASHION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND WILL UPDATE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THERE ARE STILL A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...MAINLY WEST OF I-75. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS FIRED UP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM
FRANKFORT DOWN TO BOWLING GREEN GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A FEW MORE POP
UPS FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED POP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG FORMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE REACHED SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
SOME WIND DAMAGE. THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL RAINS ARE GRADUALLY DOWN
ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...WITH A FEW MORE CELLS OCCURRING ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN THROUGH 10 PM.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING
INTO THE EVENING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
HIGHLIGHTED THIS A BIT MORE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A TROUGH WAS OVER THE PLAINS TO MS VALLEY
REGION AND A RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE
SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. LOCALLY...CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE CUMBERLAND
AND DOWN IN THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE CONVECTION...OR EVENTUAL OUTFLOWS MAY LEAD TO CONVECTION
MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER THE VA BORDER AREA OF BELL...HARLAN
AND LETCHER COUNTY AREA. ALSO...A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR A
SANDY HOOK TO JKL TO MIDDLESBORO AND THEN EAST INTO NORTHEAST TN
BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF...IF NOT THE ENTIRE NIGHT. MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
CONVECTION POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND OPTED
FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE.
ALSO...TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW WORKING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL APPROACH THE MS AND TN VALLEY AND
NEAR THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK TOWARD THE
OH...KY AND IN TRI STATE AREA BY 0Z THU. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY LEAD TO MORE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MORE FOCUSED CONVECTION
BY THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND SFC LOW
DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
GREATER THAN TODAY...BUT ONLY MODEST TO MODERATE...ENOUGH FOR MORE
ORGANIZATION...AND GREATER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WHEN COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY SPC HAS PLACED THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS ALSO
GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SOME
HAIL MIGHT ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE MODELS WERE ONCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE
CONSENSUS VIEW BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FOR A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE THE INITIAL TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
BRING ONLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE. THIS MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE 40S
AREA WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
TOUGH AVIATION PERIOD AS WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOG POTENTIAL
IS QUESTIONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT SEE VISIBILITIES COME DOWN AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WE ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING
IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND COULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS LIKELY MAINLY
WEST OF KJKL THROUGH THE DAY. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
903 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE RECOVERY OF
MOISTURE SINCE 00Z WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASED TO 1.61
INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX UP FROM A STABLE +3 TO A VERY UNSTABLE
-9.6. SHALLOW 2C SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO 1000MB...THEN MOIST
ADIABATIC TO ANOTHER 2C INVERSION AT 476MB...THEN PSEUDO TO FIRST
TROPOPAUSE AT 182MB WITH A TEMPATURE OF -62.1C. A SECOND TROP WAS
DETECTED AT 102MB/-72.5C. MOISTURE PROFILE WAS NEAR SATURATION
SURFACE TO 690 MB...THEN A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER TO 470MB...THEN
SATURATED TO TROPOPAUSE. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SE FLOW SURFACE
TO 800MB GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...S-SW 20-85KT ABOVE. PEAK WIND
246/85KT AT 44.2KFT. BALLOON BURST AT 7.06 MB/20.8 MILES UP NEAR
PROGRESS ROAD 1 MILE NE OF THE POPLARVILLE/PEARL RIVER COUNTY
AIRPORT.
USING CHAP ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING LIFTING 347K FROM 950 MB
YIELDS AT 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GUST POTENTIAL
32 KT...PEA HAIL POSSIBLE WITH A 71 VIL. EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
3.39 INCHES INDICATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR 5.77 INCHES FOR
TEMPERATURES BELOW 75F. HEAVY RAIN UNDERWAY IN NEW ORLEANS WHERE
TEMPERATURE IS 74F...SO FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN PLAY FOR
TRAIN ECHO DYNAMICS. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARING NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT COOLER AIR
STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA AND ALSO OVER GULF WATERS EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. TEMPS GENERALLY SITTING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH ADDED LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST
OF LOCAL AREA...SO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...BUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREATS BEING STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RISK WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER MAINLY FOR PIKE AND WALTHALL COUNTIES. STILL LOOKS LIKE
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT SOME POINT...
THOUGH WHETHER THAT HAPPENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA OR EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. BOTH NCEP WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO SOLIDIFY OVER
EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE NCEP WRF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
HRRR. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST WEEK AND RAINFALL RATES COULD
EASILY TOP 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. THAT
BEING SAID...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME PONDING ISSUES IN THE
USUAL LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST...WHICH
IS ROUGHLY 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS
MORNING. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A DAY OR
TWO...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD PUSH SOME WATER UP ONTO LAKESHORE
DRIVE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION. FOR THAT REASON WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ORLEANS PARISH THAT WILL BE LIKELY BE
IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW TIDE...SO
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SLOW MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND RETURNS.
DESPITE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
SHOULD BE BACK TO WARM AND MUGGY BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN VERY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KBTR...KMCB AND KMSY. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK AT MCB AND HUM. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AT
15Z THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. LOOKS FOR TEMP/PREVAILING TSRA GROUPS
DURING THIS TIME AS THE CONVECTION TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
AND TAPERING AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS EASED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE THICKNESS LAYER 1000-700MB TO DECREASE AROUND
50M OVER UPPER 70S WATER TEMPS. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS 6PM TODAY THROUGH
6PM THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 47 71 45 / 70 20 10 0
BTR 75 50 74 49 / 60 20 10 0
ASD 80 52 73 49 / 60 30 10 0
MSY 80 56 73 56 / 60 20 10 0
GPT 80 54 74 51 / 70 30 10 0
PQL 82 55 74 46 / 70 40 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARING NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT COOLER AIR
STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA AND ALSO OVER GULF WATERS EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. TEMPS GENERALLY SITTING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH ADDED LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST
OF LOCAL AREA...SO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...BUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREATS BEING STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RISK WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER MAINLY FOR PIKE AND WALTHALL COUNTIES. STILL LOOKS LIKE
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT SOME POINT...
THOUGH WHETHER THAT HAPPENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA OR EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. BOTH NCEP WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO SOLIDIFY OVER
EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE NCEP WRF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
HRRR. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST WEEK AND RAINFALL RATES COULD
EASILY TOP 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. THAT
BEING SAID...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME PONDING ISSUES IN THE
USUAL LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST...WHICH
IS ROUGHLY 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS
MORNING. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A DAY OR
TWO...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD PUSH SOME WATER UP ONTO LAKESHORE
DRIVE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION. FOR THAT REASON WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ORLEANS PARISH THAT WILL BE LIKELY BE
IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW TIDE...SO
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SLOW MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND RETURNS.
DESPITE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
SHOULD BE BACK TO WARM AND MUGGY BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN VERY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KBTR...KMCB AND KMSY. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK AT MCB AND HUM. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AT
15Z THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. LOOKS FOR TEMP/PREVAILING TSRA GROUPS
DURING THIS TIME AS THE CONVECTION TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
AND TAPERING AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS EASED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE THICKNESS LAYER 1000-700MB TO DECREASE AROUND
50M OVER UPPER 70S WATER TEMPS. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS 6PM TODAY THROUGH
6PM THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 47 71 45 / 50 20 10 0
BTR 75 50 74 49 / 50 20 10 0
ASD 80 52 73 49 / 60 30 10 0
MSY 80 56 73 56 / 60 20 10 0
GPT 80 54 74 51 / 70 30 10 0
PQL 82 55 74 46 / 70 40 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1219 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD REGION FROM THE QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR THE COAST
AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT.
LOW MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE AND THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S IN THE ALLAGASH. THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING 850 MB WARM FRONT WORKING EAST FROM QUEBEC. LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LESSER
CHANCES DOWNEAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE LATER TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. IT WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DOWNEAST
LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE DOWNEAST IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE WRN ATLC/ERN US/ERN CAN W/
DIGGING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WRN GRT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RVR
VLY AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES OVR THE WRN OH VLY/SRN GRT LAKES REGION W/ BROAD SRLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION W/ SFC HIGH PRES JUST E OF OUR AREA. STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SYSTEM TO OUR W INITIALLY
AT BAY W/ DRY BUT MILD BUT RATHER HUMID CONDS ACROSS OUR REGION THRU
FRI. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS OVERALL UPPER HGTS AND
SFC-1000 THICKNESS SUGGESTS TEMPS QUITE WARM DURING THIS PD BUT
SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
MODERATING INFLUENCES ON OVERALL TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW. FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE SPCLY ACROSS SRN AREAS W/ THE
WARM AND HUMID SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS... OVERALL HOWEVER...A
VERY SPRING-LIKE PTRN THU/FRI W/ NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH PROTECTED OUR REGION THRU FRI W/ DRY
AND MILD CONDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD ALLOWING THE WX SYSTEM W
OF THE AREA TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA...
ATTM...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES A SLOW MOVG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY SAT AM W/ PRECIP BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD OUR WRN AREAS. THIS FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY
PUSH EWRD THEN STALL OVR THE AREA AS THE UPPER SUPPORTING TROF IS
FCST TO CUTOFF WELL S OF THE AREA W/ A RATHER MOIST AND UNSETTLED
ENERLY FLOW TO DVLP ACROSS OUR AREA AND PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF LONG TERM PD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PD WILL BE THE
EXTEND THAT THE CUTOFF TO OUR S WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. PLACEMENT MAY BE FAR ENUF S THAT ONLY
OCNL SHOWERS DOMINATE THE WX PTRN AND ANY FURTHER SRN SHIFT COULD
RENDER SPCLY NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL
CARRY MOSTLY JUST CHC POPS THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL START A LITTLE
ABV SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN COOL TO NR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BLO
SEASONAL NORMS DEPENDING ON CLD CVR AND PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR
BKN-OVC CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
KBGR/KBHB WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHCS FOR FOG SPCLY SRN AREAS DURING THE OVRNGT/ERLY AM
HRS W/ THESE CONDS LIKELY INTO SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE
PD THO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT LATE IN THE PD IN PERSISTENT SRLY
FLOW. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BECOME RATHER PREVALENT W/ THE WARM AND
HUMID SRLY FLOW OVR THE COLD ATLC WATERS...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1214 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEARBY AND
LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SUNNIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
1030 AM UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREAKS OF SUN AT TIMES. HIGHS
SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. WAA SHRA ARE SLIDING EWD TOWARDS CENTRAL ME. REMNANTS OF
NY STATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO DISSIPATING ACROSS WRN NH. GRADUALLY
WE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NY STATE IS SLOWLY
SAGGING S AND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS TREND SUPPORTS HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER A WING OF WAA WILL
BRUSH THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EWD.
THESE SHRA ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND THERE REMAINS SOME LINGERING
DRY AIR AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PCPN AT SCT OR ISOLD ATTM.
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY BROAD WAA WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MARINE FOG/STRATUS. MESOSCALE
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR. ATTM IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...SLOWLY EXPANDING NWD. LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WITHIN IT. IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IT DEVELOPS STRATUS IN THE GULF OF ME. ATTM STRATUS
IS ABSENT HERE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERAGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF. HOWEVER
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS TURN MUCH MORE SLY OVER A LONGER FETCH TO
OUR S THIS AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA TO MOVE ONSHORE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SOME SHALLOW LIFT COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME DZ THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL.
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PARTIALLY
MIX OUT THE STRATUS DURING THE DAY THU. THIS HEATING COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON SHRA. ON THE NRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPE AOA 500 J/KG FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BUMPS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE SHORELINE...IT WILL BE A
COOLER DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG IS LIKELY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
EURO IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
MOISTURE TO THE WEST...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
ALLOW FOR A COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.
SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT COOL AND MOIST MARITIME FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A DAILY BASIS. PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH QPF THROUGH THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE...BRINGING UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS WARM...MOIST AIR RETURNS NWD.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL FORM AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THU NIGHT IN
MARINE FOG/STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FRI BEFORE
COLD FNT APPROACHES WILL DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RNFL INTO SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...DEEP SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS E OF THE WATERS. LATE THU SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT. EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 5 FT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES...RISING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MODERATE RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND HIGH AT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEARBY AND
LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREAKS OF SUN AT TIMES. HIGHS
SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. WAA SHRA ARE SLIDING EWD TOWARDS CENTRAL ME. REMNANTS OF
NY STATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO DISSIPATING ACROSS WRN NH. GRADUALLY
WE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NY STATE IS SLOWLY
SAGGING S AND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS TREND SUPPORTS HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER A WING OF WAA WILL
BRUSH THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EWD.
THESE SHRA ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND THERE REMAINS SOME LINGERING
DRY AIR AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PCPN AT SCT OR ISOLD ATTM.
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY BROAD WAA WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MARINE FOG/STRATUS. MESOSCALE
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR. ATTM IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...SLOWLY EXPANDING NWD. LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WITHIN IT. IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IT DEVELOPS STRATUS IN THE GULF OF ME. ATTM STRATUS
IS ABSENT HERE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERAGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF. HOWEVER
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS TURN MUCH MORE SLY OVER A LONGER FETCH TO
OUR S THIS AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA TO MOVE ONSHORE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SOME SHALLOW LIFT COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME DZ THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL.
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PARTIALLY
MIX OUT THE STRATUS DURING THE DAY THU. THIS HEATING COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON SHRA. ON THE NRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPE AOA 500 J/KG FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BUMPS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE SHORELINE...IT WILL BE A
COOLER DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG IS LIKELY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
EURO IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
MOISTURE TO THE WEST...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
ALLOW FOR A COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.
SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT COOL AND MOIST MARITIME FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A DAILY BASIS. PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH QPF THROUGH THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE...BRINGING UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS WARM...MOIST AIR RETURNS NWD.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL FORM AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THU NIGHT IN
MARINE FOG/STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FRI BEFORE
COLD FNT APPROACHES WILL DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RNFL INTO SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...DEEP SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS E OF THE WATERS. LATE THU SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT. EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 5 FT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES...RISING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MODERATE RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND HIGH AT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD REGION FROM THE QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...DECREASED POPS FOR TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEMS TO
CAPTURE THE THREAT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE WARM FRONT CROSSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR THE COAST
AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT.
LOW MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE AND THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S IN THE ALLAGASH. THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING 850 MB WARM FRONT WORKING EAST FROM QUEBEC. LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LESSER
CHANCES DOWNEAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE LATER TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. IT WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DOWNEAST
LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE DOWNEAST IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE WRN ATLC/ERN US/ERN CAN W/
DIGGING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WRN GRT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RVR
VLY AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES OVR THE WRN OH VLY/SRN GRT LAKES REGION W/ BROAD SRLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION W/ SFC HIGH PRES JUST E OF OUR AREA. STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SYSTEM TO OUR W INITIALLY
AT BAY W/ DRY BUT MILD BUT RATHER HUMID CONDS ACROSS OUR REGION THRU
FRI. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS OVERALL UPPER HGTS AND
SFC-1000 THICKNESS SUGGESTS TEMPS QUITE WARM DURING THIS PD BUT
SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
MODERATING INFLUENCES ON OVERALL TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW. FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE SPCLY ACROSS SRN AREAS W/ THE
WARM AND HUMID SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS... OVERALL HOWEVER...A
VERY SPRING-LIKE PTRN THU/FRI W/ NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH PROTECTED OUR REGION THRU FRI W/ DRY
AND MILD CONDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD ALLOWING THE WX SYSTEM W
OF THE AREA TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA...
ATTM...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES A SLOW MOVG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY SAT AM W/ PRECIP BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD OUR WRN AREAS. THIS FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY
PUSH EWRD THEN STALL OVR THE AREA AS THE UPPER SUPPORTING TROF IS
FCST TO CUTOFF WELL S OF THE AREA W/ A RATHER MOIST AND UNSETTLED
ENERLY FLOW TO DVLP ACROSS OUR AREA AND PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF LONG TERM PD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PD WILL BE THE
EXTEND THAT THE CUTOFF TO OUR S WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. PLACEMENT MAY BE FAR ENUF S THAT ONLY
OCNL SHOWERS DOMINATE THE WX PTRN AND ANY FURTHER SRN SHIFT COULD
RENDER SPCLY NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL
CARRY MOSTLY JUST CHC POPS THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL START A LITTLE
ABV SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN COOL TO NR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BLO
SEASONAL NORMS DEPENDING ON CLD CVR AND PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR
BKN-OVC CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
KBGR/KBHB WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHCS FOR FOG SPCLY SRN AREAS DURING THE OVRNGT/ERLY AM
HRS W/ THESE CONDS LIKELY INTO SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE
PD THO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT LATE IN THE PD IN PERSISTENT SRLY
FLOW. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BECOME RATHER PREVALENT W/ THE WARM AND
HUMID SRLY FLOW OVR THE COLD ATLC WATERS...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
725 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEARBY AND
LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. WAA SHRA ARE SLIDING EWD TOWARDS CENTRAL ME. REMNANTS OF
NY STATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO DISSIPATING ACROSS WRN NH. GRADUALLY
WE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NY STATE IS SLOWLY
SAGGING S AND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS TREND SUPPORTS HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER A WING OF WAA WILL
BRUSH THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EWD.
THESE SHRA ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND THERE REMAINS SOME LINGERING
DRY AIR AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PCPN AT SCT OR ISOLD ATTM.
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY BROAD WAA WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MARINE FOG/STRATUS. MESOSCALE
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR. ATTM IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...SLOWLY EXPANDING NWD. LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WITHIN IT. IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IT DEVELOPS STRATUS IN THE GULF OF ME. ATTM STRATUS
IS ABSENT HERE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERAGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF. HOWEVER
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS TURN MUCH MORE SLY OVER A LONGER FETCH TO
OUR S THIS AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA TO MOVE ONSHORE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SOME SHALLOW LIFT COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME DZ THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL.
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PARTIALLY
MIX OUT THE STRATUS DURING THE DAY THU. THIS HEATING COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON SHRA. ON THE NRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPE AOA 500 J/KG FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BUMPS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE SHORELINE...IT WILL BE A
COOLER DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG IS LIKELY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
EURO IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
MOISTURE TO THE WEST...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
ALLOW FOR A COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.
SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT COOL AND MOIST MARITIME FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A DAILY BASIS. PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH QPF THROUGH THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE...BRINGING UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS WARM...MOIST AIR RETURNS NWD.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL FORM AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THU NIGHT IN
MARINE FOG/STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FRI BEFORE
COLD FNT APPROACHES WILL DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RNFL INTO SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...DEEP SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS E OF THE WATERS. LATE THU SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT. EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 5 FT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES...RISING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MODERATE RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND HIGH AT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD REGION FROM THE QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING BASED ON
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY. LATEST HRRR STILL INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING 850 MB WARM FRONT WORKING EAST FROM QUEBEC. LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LESSER
CHANCES DOWNEAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE LATER TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. IT WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DOWNEAST
LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE DOWNEAST IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE WRN ATLC/ERN US/ERN CAN W/
DIGGING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WRN GRT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RVR
VLY AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES OVR THE WRN OH VLY/SRN GRT LAKES REGION W/ BROAD SRLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION W/ SFC HIGH PRES JUST E OF OUR AREA. STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SYSTEM TO OUR W INITIALLY
AT BAY W/ DRY BUT MILD BUT RATHER HUMID CONDS ACROSS OUR REGION THRU
FRI. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS OVERALL UPPER HGTS AND
SFC-1000 THICKNESS SUGGESTS TEMPS QUITE WARM DURING THIS PD BUT
SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
MODERATING INFLUENCES ON OVERALL TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW. FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE SPCLY ACROSS SRN AREAS W/ THE
WARM AND HUMID SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS... OVERALL HOWEVER...A
VERY SPRING-LIKE PTRN THU/FRI W/ NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH PROTECTED OUR REGION THRU FRI W/ DRY
AND MILD CONDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD ALLOWING THE WX SYSTEM W
OF THE AREA TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA...
ATTM...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES A SLOW MOVG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY SAT AM W/ PRECIP BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD OUR WRN AREAS. THIS FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY
PUSH EWRD THEN STALL OVR THE AREA AS THE UPPER SUPPORTING TROF IS
FCST TO CUTOFF WELL S OF THE AREA W/ A RATHER MOIST AND UNSETTLED
ENERLY FLOW TO DVLP ACROSS OUR AREA AND PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF LONG TERM PD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PD WILL BE THE
EXTEND THAT THE CUTOFF TO OUR S WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. PLACEMENT MAY BE FAR ENUF S THAT ONLY
OCNL SHOWERS DOMINATE THE WX PTRN AND ANY FURTHER SRN SHIFT COULD
RENDER SPCLY NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL
CARRY MOSTLY JUST CHC POPS THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL START A LITTLE
ABV SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN COOL TO NR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BLO
SEASONAL NORMS DEPENDING ON CLD CVR AND PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR
BKN-OVC CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
KBGR/KBHB WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHCS FOR FOG SPCLY SRN AREAS DURING THE OVRNGT/ERLY AM
HRS W/ THESE CONDS LIKELY INTO SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE
PD THO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT LATE IN THE PD IN PERSISTENT SRLY
FLOW. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BECOME RATHER PREVALENT W/ THE WARM AND
HUMID SRLY FLOW OVR THE COLD ATLC WATERS...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
533 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEARBY AND
LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WAA SHRA HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE IN A LINE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME BORDER. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS
MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED POP ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NY STATE IS SLOWLY
SAGGING S AND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS TREND SUPPORTS HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER A WING OF WAA WILL
BRUSH THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EWD.
THESE SHRA ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND THERE REMAINS SOME LINGERING
DRY AIR AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PCPN AT SCT OR ISOLD ATTM.
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY BROAD WAA WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MARINE FOG/STRATUS. MESOSCALE
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR. ATTM IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...SLOWLY EXPANDING NWD. LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WITHIN IT. IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IT DEVELOPS STRATUS IN THE GULF OF ME. ATTM STRATUS
IS ABSENT HERE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERAGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF. HOWEVER
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS TURN MUCH MORE SLY OVER A LONGER FETCH TO
OUR S THIS AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA TO MOVE ONSHORE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SOME SHALLOW LIFT COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME DZ THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL.
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PARTIALLY
MIX OUT THE STRATUS DURING THE DAY THU. THIS HEATING COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON SHRA. ON THE NRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPE AOA 500 J/KG FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BUMPS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE SHORELINE...IT WILL BE A
COOLER DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG IS LIKELY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
EURO IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
MOISTURE TO THE WEST...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
ALLOW FOR A COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.
SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT COOL AND MOIST MARITIME FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A DAILY BASIS. PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH QPF THROUGH THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE...BRINGING UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS WARM...MOIST AIR RETURNS NWD.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL FORM AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THU NIGHT IN
MARINE FOG/STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FRI BEFORE
COLD FNT APPROACHES WILL DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RNFL INTO SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...DEEP SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS E OF THE WATERS. LATE THU SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT. EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 5 FT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES...RISING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MODERATE RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND HIGH AT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
357 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD REGION FROM THE QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING 850 MB WARM FRONT WORKING EAST FROM QUEBEC. LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS BAND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LESSER
CHANCES DOWNEAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE LATER TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. IT WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DOWNEAST
LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE DOWNEAST IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE WRN ATLC/ERN US/ERN CAN W/
DIGGING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WRN GRT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RVR
VLY AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... AT THE SFC...LOW
PRES OVR THE WRN OH VLY/SRN GRT LAKES REGION W/ BROAD SRLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION W/ SFC HIGH PRES JUST E OF OUR AREA. STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SYSTEM TO OUR W INITIALLY
AT BAY W/ DRY BUT MILD BUT RATHER HUMID CONDS ACROSS OUR REGION THRU
FRI. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS OVERALL UPPER HGTS AND
SFC-1000 THICKNESS SUGGESTS TEMPS QUITE WARM DURING THIS PD BUT
SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
MODERATING INFLUENCES ON OVERALL TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW. FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE SPCLY ACROSS SRN AREAS W/ THE
WARM AND HUMID SRLY FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WATERS... OVERALL HOWEVER...A
VERY SPRING-LIKE PTRN THU/FRI W/ NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. &&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH PROTECTED OUR REGION THRU FRI W/ DRY
AND MILD CONDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD ALLOWING THE WX SYSTEM W
OF THE AREA TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA...
ATTM...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES A SLOW MOVG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY SAT AM W/ PRECIP BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD OUR WRN AREAS. THIS FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY
PUSH EWRD THEN STALL OVR THE AREA AS THE UPPER SUPPORTING TROF IS
FCST TO CUTOFF WELL S OF THE AREA W/ A RATHER MOIST AND UNSETTLED
ENERLY FLOW TO DVLP ACROSS OUR AREA AND PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF LONG TERM PD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PD WILL BE THE
EXTEND THAT THE CUTOFF TO OUR S WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. PLACEMENT MAY BE FAR ENUF S THAT ONLY
OCNL SHOWERS DOMINATE THE WX PTRN AND ANY FURTHER SRN SHIFT COULD
RENDER SPCLY NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL
CARRY MOSTLY JUST CHC POPS THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL START A LITTLE
ABV SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN COOL TO NR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BLO
SEASONAL NORMS DEPENDING ON CLD CVR AND PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR
BKN-OVC CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
KBGR/KBHB WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHCS FOR FOG SPCLY SRN AREAS DURING THE OVRNGT/ERLY AM
HRS W/ THESE CONDS LIKELY INTO SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE
PD THO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT LATE IN THE PD IN PERSISTENT SRLY
FLOW. ALSO EXPECT FOG TO BECOME RATHER PREVALENT W/ THE WARM AND
HUMID SRLY FLOW OVR THE COLD ATLC WATERS...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
321 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEARBY AND
LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NY STATE IS SLOWLY SAGGING S AND DRYING
UP AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS TREND SUPPORTS HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER A WING OF WAA WILL BRUSH THE CWFA THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EWD. THESE SHRA ARE ELEVATED
IN NATURE AND THERE REMAINS SOME LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN AT SCT OR
ISOLD ATTM.
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY BROAD WAA WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MARINE FOG/STRATUS. MESOSCALE
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR. ATTM IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...SLOWLY EXPANDING NWD. LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WITHIN IT. IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IT DEVELOPS STRATUS IN THE GULF OF ME. ATTM STRATUS
IS ABSENT HERE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERAGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF. HOWEVER
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS TURN MUCH MORE SLY OVER A LONGER FETCH TO
OUR S THIS AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA TO MOVE ONSHORE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SOME SHALLOW LIFT COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME DZ THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL.
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PARTIALLY
MIX OUT THE STRATUS DURING THE DAY THU. THIS HEATING COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON SHRA. ON THE NRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE
MARINE LAYER MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPE AOA 500 J/KG FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BUMPS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE SHORELINE...IT WILL BE A
COOLER DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG IS LIKELY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
EURO IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
MOISTURE TO THE WEST...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
ALLOW FOR A COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.
SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT COOL AND MOIST MARITIME FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A DAILY BASIS. PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH QPF THROUGH THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE...BRINGING UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO MARINE FOG/STRATUS AS WARM...MOIST AIR RETURNS NWD.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL FORM AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THU NIGHT IN
MARINE FOG/STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FRI BEFORE
COLD FNT APPROACHES WILL DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RNFL INTO SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...DEEP SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS E OF THE WATERS. LATE THU SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT. EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 5 FT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE WARMING TEMPERATURES...RISING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MODERATE RANGE DURING
THE DAY AND HIGH AT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
STATES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A 2.5K FT
STRATUS DECK ON THE COLD SIDE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. A
BINARY RESULT OF SKY COVER HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...ALONG RIDGE LINES
AND PARTS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ARE GETTING FULL SUN THIS
MORNING. WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS ON TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION FROM WEST TO EAST OF
STRATUS TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 70S IN NE
MD TO THE UPPER 70S IN NOVA AND THE PANHANDLE OF WV. FCST SOUNDINGS
THAT HAD A HANDLE ON THE MARINE LAYER FROM THE 12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE MD
INCLUDING BALTIMORE METRO BEING THE LAST TO BREAK BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE DURING
THE DAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PIEDMONT.
ELSEWHERE...FULL SUN WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE 80S TODAY AND
PER THE 12Z RNK RAOB WHICH IS UPSTREAM... INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000
J/KG IS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DUE
TO TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS ON THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY OF THE MARINE LAYER. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FROM THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THEREFORE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. 11Z HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 16Z TODAY. THE STORM MOTION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST BUT THE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSAPTE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND
A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...UPDATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COUNTIES IN
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF
COAST STATES THURSDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST TOWARD OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING TOWARD BEING NEGATIVELY TILTED...ALLOWING
FOR MORE HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
STRONG FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN
TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A SLOW BUT STEADY ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED LATE THU
EVE. EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE DIVED
DOWN WELL INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY SCOOP A DENSE SECTOR OF GULF MOISTURE OVER A
RELATIVELY THIN AXIS. THIS MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE JUST ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUILDING AND DRIFTING NNE ACROSS THE SRN
APLCNS THU MRNG/AFTN.
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE/NIGHTTIME HRS...THE UPPER VORT POWERING
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TILT NEGATIVELY WHICH IS AN INTENSIFICATION
PHASE FOR THE SYSTEM - MAXIMIZING THE AMOUNT OF QPF POSSIBLE W/ THE
SYSTEM. MOST MED RANGE MEMBERS GIVING THE WRN HALF OF OUR CWA A
PORTION OF THE BULLSEYE FOR POTENTIAL QPF - MAINLY DURING THE THU
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD OR SO...WHICH THE SOLID
CONSENSUS OF QPF DEPICTIONS. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SHEN VLY/APLCNS.
A SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND STRENGTHEN AS IT EFFECTIVELY TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS OUR
CWA. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA...THOUGH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION AT VERY LEAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BATCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD DURING THE PREDAWN HRS FRI OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST. THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE
FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY FRI...W/ EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND A STILL INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET HELPING
TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM INTACT. A QUICK END TO THE
PRECIP LINE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE MID-LATE AFTN W/ ONLY A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE BACK EDGE SUBSIDENCE REGION. THE
MOISTURE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ARRIVES OVER DELMARVA AND MOVES
OFF THE COAST LATE FRI EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING DOWN FROM SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AROUND WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...KEEPING OUR
AREA QUITE COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. THE "WEATHER" FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY...EVEN THOUGH AVG TEMPS
FOR MID-MAY ARE IN THE M70S. A SLOW MOVING AND COLD UPPER LOW TAKING
A FEW DAYS TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP US IN THIS PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO 80 DEG OR MORE...BASED ON THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MORE IFR/SUBIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FOR CHO AND MRB...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI. MAINLY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
CONCERN...W/ BREEZY SFC WINDS BUT EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW - A
GOOD 30-50KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW LATE THU
INTO EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE PRECIP AND ANY EMBEDDED
TSTMS OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRI...W/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING
USHERED IN FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE THU AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF A SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ARRIVE INTO
THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. WINDS WILL MAX-OUT IN THE UPPER SCA/LOW-END
GALE RANGES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST AND MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE WELL BELOW SCA CRIT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...W/ ONLY A LIGHT W/NW BREEZE EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED UP TO AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL THIS MORNING DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO WATER LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS...DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
TIDAL ANOMALIES.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING OFFSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATER FRIDAY. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING WEAK
TONIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SINCE IT WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR HIGH TIDES
DURING THIS TIME. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003-501-502.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-503-504.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ036>040-042-050>056-501-502.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
STATES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A 2.5K FT
STRATUS DECK ON THE COLD SIDE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. A
BINARY RESULT OF SKY COVER HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...ALONG RIDGE LINES
AND PARTS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ARE GETTING FULL SUN THIS
MORNING. WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS ON TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION FROM WEST TO EAST OF
STRATUS TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 70S IN NE
MD TO THE UPPER 70S IN NOVA AND THE PANHANDLE OF WV. FCST SOUNDINGS
THAT HAD A HANDLE ON THE MARINE LAYER FROM THE 12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE MD
INCLUDING BALTIMORE METRO BEING THE LAST TO BREAK BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE DURING
THE DAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PIEDMONT.
ELSEWHERE...FULL SUN WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING THE 80S TODAY AND
PER THE 12Z RNK RAOB WHICH IS UPSTREAM... INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000
J/KG IS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DUE
TO TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS ON THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY OF THE MARINE LAYER. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FROM THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THEREFORE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. 11Z HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION STARTING AFTER 16Z TODAY. THE STORM MOTION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST BUT THE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSAPTE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND
A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF
COAST STATES THURSDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST TOWARD OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING TOWARD BEING NEGATIVELY TILTED...ALLOWING
FOR MORE HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
STRONG FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN
TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A SLOW BUT STEADY ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED LATE THU
EVE. EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE DIVED
DOWN WELL INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY SCOOP A DENSE SECTOR OF GULF MOISTURE OVER A
RELATIVELY THIN AXIS. THIS MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE JUST ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUILDING AND DRIFTING NNE ACROSS THE SRN
APLCNS THU MRNG/AFTN.
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE/NIGHTTIME HRS...THE UPPER VORT POWERING
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TILT NEGATIVELY WHICH IS AN INTENSIFICATION
PHASE FOR THE SYSTEM - MAXIMIZING THE AMOUNT OF QPF POSSIBLE W/ THE
SYSTEM. MOST MED RANGE MEMBERS GIVING THE WRN HALF OF OUR CWA A
PORTION OF THE BULLSEYE FOR POTENTIAL QPF - MAINLY DURING THE THU
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD OR SO...WHICH THE SOLID
CONSENSUS OF QPF DEPICTIONS. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SHEN VLY/APLCNS.
A SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND STRENGTHEN AS IT EFFECTIVELY TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS OUR
CWA. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA...THOUGH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION AT VERY LEAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BATCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD DURING THE PREDAWN HRS FRI OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST. THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE
FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY FRI...W/ EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND A STILL INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET HELPING
TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM INTACT. A QUICK END TO THE
PRECIP LINE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE MID-LATE AFTN W/ ONLY A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE BACK EDGE SUBSIDENCE REGION. THE
MOISTURE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ARRIVES OVER DELMARVA AND MOVES
OFF THE COAST LATE FRI EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING DOWN FROM SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AROUND WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...KEEPING OUR
AREA QUITE COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. THE "WEATHER" FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY...EVEN THOUGH AVG TEMPS
FOR MID-MAY ARE IN THE M70S. A SLOW MOVING AND COLD UPPER LOW TAKING
A FEW DAYS TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP US IN THIS PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO 80 DEG OR MORE...BASED ON THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MORE IFR/SUBIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FOR CHO AND MRB...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI. MAINLY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
CONCERN...W/ BREEZY SFC WINDS BUT EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW - A
GOOD 30-50KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW LATE THU
INTO EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE PRECIP AND ANY EMBEDDED
TSTMS OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRI...W/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING
USHERED IN FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE THU AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF A SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ARRIVE INTO
THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. WINDS WILL MAX-OUT IN THE UPPER SCA/LOW-END
GALE RANGES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST AND MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE WELL BELOW SCA CRIT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...W/ ONLY A LIGHT W/NW BREEZE EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED UP TO AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL THIS MORNING DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO WATER LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS...DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
TIDAL ANOMALIES.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING OFFSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATER FRIDAY. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING WEAK
TONIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SINCE IT WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR HIGH TIDES
DURING THIS TIME. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/GMS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
302 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...CONSISTING OF A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN CANADA TO TX. WITHIN THE TROF...THE NRN STREAM
FEATURES A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY...
BUT NRN STREAM ENERGY IS DIVING S ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER REGION. IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROF...A SHORTWAVE IS OVER
TX/OK. EXACTLY HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD DIVING NRN STREAM
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS LOOKING A BIT MORE
LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS.
DRIER AIR MASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FCST AREA OVER THE LAST 12-18HRS.
WHILE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...UPSTREAM KINL
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 700MB. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY MANIFEST ITSELF AS HIGHER BASED SCT-BKN
CU/STRATOCU THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WERE COMMON UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HERE TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC RATHER
THAN CYCLONIC AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHERE THE SHRA WERE OCCURRING...
DON`T EXPECT ANY -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...
KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY THIS AFTN. INLAND...DEEP MIXING TO
TOWARD 750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MAY SEE A FEW READINGS AROUND 60F OVER THE SCNTRL. DWPTS WILL
MIX OUT INTO THE MID 20S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND
30PCT IN THE INTERIOR W HALF THIS AFTN. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS/MOIST
GROUND WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS.
NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL CONTINUE S
INTO IA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PULL SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE N INTO IL
BY SUNRISE WED WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO ERN IN. PUSH OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD
LIFTING N INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NRN FRINGE OF PCPN MAY REACH
THE FAR E AND SE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE THU. INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS/1000-850MB THICKNESS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IF PCPN DOES IN FACT
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
...MODELS TRENDING BACK TO STRONGER SYSTEM/ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
END THE WEEK...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH WITH H5 HEIGHTS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMO
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL HINTS THAT
THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF BY FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH
ON LEAD FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP TO UPPER LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES TOWARD MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WHILE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING ALOFT
MAKES RETURN TO UPPER LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN UNDER FIRM INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH AND WORKED OVER
CP AIRMASS...ONLY MODERATE WARMING WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BLO NORMAL.
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF RUN
FROM TUE 5/13 WAS AN ABERATION...AS WITH THE 12Z RUN ON TUE 5/13 THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AGAIN...DRAWING THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
SFC WAVE BACK WEST AGAIN SPREADING QPF OVER MAINLY EAST THIRD OF CWA
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS NOT SET ON ANY ONE IDEA
THOUGH AS ESSENTIALLY WE CONTINUE TO SEE ALL THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...ENOUGH
OF TREND EMERGING TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM FARTHEST WEST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND PV
ANAMOLY AND ASSOCIATED QPF ON THURSDAY. FARTHEST EAST IDEA IS UKMET
WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF ITS FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS AND GEM ALONG
WITH 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND FOCUS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE AREA OF TROWAL/DEFORMATION PRECIP OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PTYPE FOR THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIKELY
WOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN COULD SEE JUST SNOW BY LATER AFTN.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE ECMWF
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/NAM THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS H7-H6
IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST CWA
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMP GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AT H7 DUE TO
PERSISTENT COLD/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AXIS OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR.
MAY BE GETTING LOST IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT FN CONVERGENCE IS
DECENT AND THERE IS ALSO FS VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD PIVOT ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY NNW WINDS UPSLOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AND NCNTRL CWA. AGAIN...THIS IS ONE MODEL RUN OF MANY
DIFFERENT TAKES ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN UPPER LOW DEEPENING AND
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING HAS SOME MERIT. UNCERTAINTY
OF THAT FEATURES PLACEMENT IS MAIN ISSUE FROM INTRODUCING THAT KIND
OF DETAIL TO FORECAST ATTM. TEMP GRADIENT ALOFT WEAKENS IN THE
AFTN...SO INTENSITY OF MID-LEVEL LIFT/FGEN SHOULD DO LIKEWISE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTN THOUGH. BASED ON LIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPS WELL BLO ZERO AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BLO 1300M...AND
NOT MUCH OF ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SFC LAYER SHOWING UP IN THE
SOUNDINGS...PTYPE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. BY FRIDAY AFTN...BLYR WARMING
WILL ALLOW FOR MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF.
NOW THE MAIN QUESTION TURNS TO SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH ANY SNOW THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON THE MAIN HURDLES OF WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
INTENSITY...TIME OF DAY...ALL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. BUT...AT LEAST
IN THESE LATITUDES IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF AT ALL TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON SNOWS. LOCAL RECORDS/OTHER ACCOUNTS INCLUDE A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPR MICHIGAN EARLY IN JUNE OF 1945...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OTHERS
THAN HAVE OCCURRED IN LATE MAY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS WISCONSIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS IF THE REVERSAL OF TRACK
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING COMES TO FRUITION...THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOOKING AT THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...GOOD PART OF SNOW
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO THE INSOLATION WILL
BE MINIMAL FACTOR IN CUTTING DOWN ON AMOUNTS...AND SNOW MAY FALL AT
GOOD CLIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FGEN
AND DEFORMATION AREA INCREASES AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS
TO START IS PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...AND
ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF NW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE
LIFT. NOTEABLE IS THAT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE 03Z SREF
MEMBERS TRENDED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING MUCH MORE
SNOW...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN PRINTING OUT AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MEMBERS OVER 10 INCHES. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT
IS SEEMING TO KEY ON LARGER SCALE FORCING IMPACTING MOST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS KIMT AND
EAST AS KERY. SREF MEAN SHOWS 2-4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN THAT IMT TO ERY
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUT MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS. AND THEN WE WILL WAIT
TO SEE WHAT THE LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE.
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG IT ENDS UP BEING...WILL LEAVE A WELL
ESTABLISHED CP AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WILL MIX TO AROUND H85 SO TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE 50S DEGREES THERE. RIDGE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL PACK A PUNCH NEAR LK SUPERIOR
/KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S/ AS WATERS OFFSHORE ARE STILL VERY
COLD OR EVEN ICE COVERED IN SOME AREAS.
SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL MODERATE INLAND WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GREAT LAKES SHORES MUCH COOLER.
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY SPOTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR THE SHORE...READINGS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...YES JUST RAIN...ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
SCT-BKN LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR OTHERWISE
DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A FEW HIGH MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED UPSTREAM...BUT THEY ARE MORE TEMPORARY AND SHOULD COME IN
HIGHER AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO IWD AND CMX. AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE
SLIDING IN AT SAW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE AIRPORT BY
AROUND 20Z. ANY GUSTY WINDS /NEARING 25KTS AT CMX/ WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6-10Z THURSDAY /GUSTS NEARING
25KTS OUT OF THE N AT SAW BY LATE MORNING/ IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/ONTARIO...AND LOW SLIDING FROM INDIANA
AT DAYBREAK TO E LOWER MI AND GREATER LAKE HURON BY 18Z THURSDAY.
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF UPSLOPE N WINDS...SAW COULD GET SOME RAIN BY
18Z THURSDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO BE MIXED
IN...PARTICULARLY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE MAIN LOW ACROSS INDIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE
LOW TO SHIFT NNE ACROSS LAKE HURON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO
JAMES BAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO SETTLE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A WEAK LOW SWINGING IN FROM W ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ASSISTING IN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WILL EXTEND A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE
INTO FRI. SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL LINGER ON INTO SAT. RIGHT NOW...PCPN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT THERE IS LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...AND SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS IN
THE OFFING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ALL RIVERS TO HAVE AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THU/FRI OVER NRN UPPER MI. IF SO...HIGHER RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE SUSTAINED AND COULD RISE SOME FRI INTO SAT.
THE MAIN RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...
INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AT
REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1142 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...CONSISTING OF A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN CANADA TO TX. WITHIN THE TROF...THE NRN STREAM
FEATURES A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY...
BUT NRN STREAM ENERGY IS DIVING S ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER REGION. IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROF...A SHORTWAVE IS OVER
TX/OK. EXACTLY HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD DIVING NRN STREAM
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS LOOKING A BIT MORE
LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS.
DRIER AIR MASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FCST AREA OVER THE LAST 12-18HRS.
WHILE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...UPSTREAM KINL
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 700MB. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY MANIFEST ITSELF AS HIGHER BASED SCT-BKN
CU/STRATOCU THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WERE COMMON UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HERE TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC RATHER
THAN CYCLONIC AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHERE THE SHRA WERE OCCURRING...
DON`T EXPECT ANY -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...
KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY THIS AFTN. INLAND...DEEP MIXING TO
TOWARD 750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MAY SEE A FEW READINGS AROUND 60F OVER THE SCNTRL. DWPTS WILL
MIX OUT INTO THE MID 20S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND
30PCT IN THE INTERIOR W HALF THIS AFTN. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS/MOIST
GROUND WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS.
NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL CONTINUE S
INTO IA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PULL SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE N INTO IL
BY SUNRISE WED WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO ERN IN. PUSH OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD
LIFTING N INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NRN FRINGE OF PCPN MAY REACH
THE FAR E AND SE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE THU. INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS/1000-850MB THICKNESS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IF PCPN DOES IN FACT
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
...MODELS TRENDING BACK TO STRONGER SYSTEM/ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
END THE WEEK...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH WITH H5 HEIGHTS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMO
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL HINTS THAT
THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF BY FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH
ON LEAD FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP TO UPPER LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES TOWARD MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WHILE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING ALOFT
MAKES RETURN TO UPPER LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN UNDER FIRM INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH AND WORKED OVER
CP AIRMASS...ONLY MODERATE WARMING WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BLO NORMAL.
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF RUN
FROM TUE 5/13 WAS AN ABERATION...AS WITH THE 12Z RUN ON TUE 5/13 THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AGAIN...DRAWING THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
SFC WAVE BACK WEST AGAIN SPREADING QPF OVER MAINLY EAST THIRD OF CWA
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS NOT SET ON ANY ONE IDEA
THOUGH AS ESSENTIALLY WE CONTINUE TO SEE ALL THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...ENOUGH
OF TREND EMERGING TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM FARTHEST WEST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND PV
ANAMOLY AND ASSOCIATED QPF ON THURSDAY. FARTHEST EAST IDEA IS UKMET
WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF ITS FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS AND GEM ALONG
WITH 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND FOCUS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE AREA OF TROWAL/DEFORMATION PRECIP OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PTYPE FOR THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIKELY
WOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN COULD SEE JUST SNOW BY LATER AFTN.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE ECMWF
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/NAM THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS H7-H6
IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST CWA
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMP GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AT H7 DUE TO
PERSISTENT COLD/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AXIS OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR.
MAY BE GETTING LOST IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT FN CONVERGENCE IS
DECENT AND THERE IS ALSO FS VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD PIVOT ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY NNW WINDS UPSLOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AND NCNTRL CWA. AGAIN...THIS IS ONE MODEL RUN OF MANY
DIFFERENT TAKES ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN UPPER LOW DEEPENING AND
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING HAS SOME MERIT. UNCERTAINTY
OF THAT FEATURES PLACEMENT IS MAIN ISSUE FROM INTRODUCING THAT KIND
OF DETAIL TO FORECAST ATTM. TEMP GRADIENT ALOFT WEAKENS IN THE
AFTN...SO INTENSITY OF MID-LEVEL LIFT/FGEN SHOULD DO LIKEWISE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTN THOUGH. BASED ON LIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPS WELL BLO ZERO AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BLO 1300M...AND
NOT MUCH OF ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SFC LAYER SHOWING UP IN THE
SOUNDINGS...PTYPE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. BY FRIDAY AFTN...BLYR WARMING
WILL ALLOW FOR MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF.
NOW THE MAIN QUESTION TURNS TO SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH ANY SNOW THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON THE MAIN HURDLES OF WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
INTENSITY...TIME OF DAY...ALL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. BUT...AT LEAST
IN THESE LATITUDES IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF AT ALL TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON SNOWS. LOCAL RECORDS/OTHER ACCOUNTS INCLUDE A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPR MICHIGAN EARLY IN JUNE OF 1945...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OTHERS
THAN HAVE OCCURRED IN LATE MAY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS WISCONSIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS IF THE REVERSAL OF TRACK
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING COMES TO FRUITION...THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOOKING AT THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...GOOD PART OF SNOW
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO THE INSOLATION WILL
BE MINIMAL FACTOR IN CUTTING DOWN ON AMOUNTS...AND SNOW MAY FALL AT
GOOD CLIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FGEN
AND DEFORMATION AREA INCREASES AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS
TO START IS PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...AND
ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF NW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE
LIFT. NOTEABLE IS THAT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE 03Z SREF
MEMBERS TRENDED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING MUCH MORE
SNOW...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN PRINTING OUT AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MEMBERS OVER 10 INCHES. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT
IS SEEMING TO KEY ON LARGER SCALE FORCING IMPACTING MOST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS KIMT AND
EAST AS KERY. SREF MEAN SHOWS 2-4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN THAT IMT TO ERY
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUT MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS. AND THEN WE WILL WAIT
TO SEE WHAT THE LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE.
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG IT ENDS UP BEING...WILL LEAVE A WELL
ESTABLISHED CP AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WILL MIX TO AROUND H85 SO TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE 50S DEGREES THERE. RIDGE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL PACK A PUNCH NEAR LK SUPERIOR
/KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S/ AS WATERS OFFSHORE ARE STILL VERY
COLD OR EVEN ICE COVERED IN SOME AREAS.
SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL MODERATE INLAND WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GREAT LAKES SHORES MUCH COOLER.
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY SPOTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR THE SHORE...READINGS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...YES JUST RAIN...ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
SCT-BKN LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR OTHERWISE
DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A FEW HIGH MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED UPSTREAM...BUT THEY ARE MORE TEMPORARY AND SHOULD COME IN
HIGHER AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO IWD AND CMX. AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE
SLIDING IN AT SAW WILL PUSH MOST OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE AIRPORT BY
AROUND 20Z. ANY GUSTY WINDS /NEARING 25KTS AT CMX/ WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6-10Z THURSDAY /GUSTS NEARING
25KTS OUT OF THE N AT SAW BY LATE MORNING/ IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/ONTARIO...AND LOW SLIDING FROM INDIANA
AT DAYBREAK TO E LOWER MI AND GREATER LAKE HURON BY 18Z THURSDAY.
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF UPSLOPE N WINDS...SAW COULD GET SOME RAIN BY
18Z THURSDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO BE MIXED
IN...PARTICULARLY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-25KT OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC
LOW PRES THAT WILL LIFT N ACROSS LAKE HURON THU AND THEN TO JAMES
BAY BY FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS THU...MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHERLY WINDS
THU NIGHT WILL REACH 20-30KT OVER THE E HALF. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRI AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THU
AND FRI. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO WINDS
UNDER 20KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE
INTO FRI. SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL LINGER ON INTO SAT. RIGHT NOW...PCPN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT THERE IS LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...AND SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS IN
THE OFFING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ALL RIVERS TO HAVE AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THU/FRI OVER NRN UPPER MI. IF SO...HIGHER RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE SUSTAINED AND COULD RISE SOME FRI INTO SAT.
THE MAIN RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...
INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AT
REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...CONSISTING OF A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN CANADA TO TX. WITHIN THE TROF...THE NRN STREAM
FEATURES A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY...
BUT NRN STREAM ENERGY IS DIVING S ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER REGION. IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROF...A SHORTWAVE IS OVER
TX/OK. EXACTLY HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD DIVING NRN STREAM
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS LOOKING A BIT MORE
LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS.
DRIER AIR MASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FCST AREA OVER THE LAST 12-18HRS.
WHILE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...UPSTREAM KINL
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 700MB. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY MANIFEST ITSELF AS HIGHER BASED SCT-BKN
CU/STRATOCU THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WERE COMMON UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HERE TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC RATHER
THAN CYCLONIC AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHERE THE SHRA WERE OCCURRING...
DON`T EXPECT ANY -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...
KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY THIS AFTN. INLAND...DEEP MIXING TO
TOWARD 750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MAY SEE A FEW READINGS AROUND 60F OVER THE SCNTRL. DWPTS WILL
MIX OUT INTO THE MID 20S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND
30PCT IN THE INTERIOR W HALF THIS AFTN. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS/MOIST
GROUND WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS.
NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL CONTINUE S
INTO IA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PULL SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE N INTO IL
BY SUNRISE WED WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO ERN IN. PUSH OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD
LIFTING N INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NRN FRINGE OF PCPN MAY REACH
THE FAR E AND SE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE THU. INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS/1000-850MB THICKNESS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IF PCPN DOES IN FACT
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
...MODELS TRENDING BACK TO STRONGER SYSTEM/ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
END THE WEEK...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH WITH H5 HEIGHTS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMO
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL HINTS THAT
THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF BY FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH
ON LEAD FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP TO UPPER LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES TOWARD MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WHILE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING ALOFT
MAKES RETURN TO UPPER LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN UNDER FIRM INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH AND WORKED OVER
CP AIRMASS...ONLY MODERATE WARMING WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BLO NORMAL.
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF RUN
FROM TUE 5/13 WAS AN ABERATION...AS WITH THE 12Z RUN ON TUE 5/13 THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AGAIN...DRAWING THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
SFC WAVE BACK WEST AGAIN SPREADING QPF OVER MAINLY EAST THIRD OF CWA
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS NOT SET ON ANY ONE IDEA
THOUGH AS ESSENTIALLY WE CONTINUE TO SEE ALL THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...ENOUGH
OF TREND EMERGING TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM FARTHEST WEST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND PV
ANAMOLY AND ASSOCIATED QPF ON THURSDAY. FARTHEST EAST IDEA IS UKMET
WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF ITS FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS AND GEM ALONG
WITH 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND FOCUS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE AREA OF TROWAL/DEFORMATION PRECIP OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PTYPE FOR THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIKELY
WOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN COULD SEE JUST SNOW BY LATER AFTN.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE ECMWF
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/NAM THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS H7-H6
IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST CWA
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMP GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AT H7 DUE TO
PERSISTENT COLD/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AXIS OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR.
MAY BE GETTING LOST IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT FN CONVERGENCE IS
DECENT AND THERE IS ALSO FS VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD PIVOT ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY NNW WINDS UPSLOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AND NCNTRL CWA. AGAIN...THIS IS ONE MODEL RUN OF MANY
DIFFERENT TAKES ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN UPPER LOW DEEPENING AND
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING HAS SOME MERIT. UNCERTAINTY
OF THAT FEATURES PLACEMENT IS MAIN ISSUE FROM INTRODUCING THAT KIND
OF DETAIL TO FORECAST ATTM. TEMP GRADIENT ALOFT WEAKENS IN THE
AFTN...SO INTENSITY OF MID-LEVEL LIFT/FGEN SHOULD DO LIKEWISE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTN THOUGH. BASED ON LIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPS WELL BLO ZERO AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BLO 1300M...AND
NOT MUCH OF ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SFC LAYER SHOWING UP IN THE
SOUNDINGS...PTYPE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. BY FRIDAY AFTN...BLYR WARMING
WILL ALLOW FOR MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF.
NOW THE MAIN QUESTION TURNS TO SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH ANY SNOW THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON THE MAIN HURDLES OF WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
INTENSITY...TIME OF DAY...ALL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. BUT...AT LEAST
IN THESE LATITUDES IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF AT ALL TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON SNOWS. LOCAL RECORDS/OTHER ACCOUNTS INCLUDE A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPR MICHIGAN EARLY IN JUNE OF 1945...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OTHERS
THAN HAVE OCCURRED IN LATE MAY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS WISCONSIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS IF THE REVERSAL OF TRACK
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING COMES TO FRUITION...THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOOKING AT THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...GOOD PART OF SNOW
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO THE INSOLATION WILL
BE MINIMAL FACTOR IN CUTTING DOWN ON AMOUNTS...AND SNOW MAY FALL AT
GOOD CLIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FGEN
AND DEFORMATION AREA INCREASES AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS
TO START IS PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...AND
ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF NW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE
LIFT. NOTEABLE IS THAT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE 03Z SREF
MEMBERS TRENDED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING MUCH MORE
SNOW...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN PRINTING OUT AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MEMBERS OVER 10 INCHES. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT
IS SEEMING TO KEY ON LARGER SCALE FORCING IMPACTING MOST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS KIMT AND
EAST AS KERY. SREF MEAN SHOWS 2-4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN THAT IMT TO ERY
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUT MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS. AND THEN WE WILL WAIT
TO SEE WHAT THE LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE.
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG IT ENDS UP BEING...WILL LEAVE A WELL
ESTABLISHED CP AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WILL MIX TO AROUND H85 SO TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE 50S DEGREES THERE. RIDGE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL PACK A PUNCH NEAR LK SUPERIOR
/KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S/ AS WATERS OFFSHORE ARE STILL VERY
COLD OR EVEN ICE COVERED IN SOME AREAS.
SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL MODERATE INLAND WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GREAT LAKES SHORES MUCH COOLER.
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY SPOTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR THE SHORE...READINGS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...YES JUST RAIN...ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
WITH A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE WITH NNE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AT KSAW.
OTHERWISE...WRLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KCMX TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-25KT OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC
LOW PRES THAT WILL LIFT N ACROSS LAKE HURON THU AND THEN TO JAMES
BAY BY FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS THU...MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHERLY WINDS
THU NIGHT WILL REACH 20-30KT OVER THE E HALF. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRI AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THU
AND FRI. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO WINDS
UNDER 20KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE
INTO FRI. SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL LINGER ON INTO SAT. RIGHT NOW...PCPN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT THERE IS LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...AND SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS IN
THE OFFING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ALL RIVERS TO HAVE AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THU/FRI OVER NRN UPPER MI. IF SO...HIGHER RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE SUSTAINED AND COULD RISE SOME FRI INTO SAT.
THE MAIN RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...
INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AT
REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
OVER NAMERICA...CONSISTING OF A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A TROF
EXTENDING FROM NRN CANADA TO TX. WITHIN THE TROF...THE NRN STREAM
FEATURES A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY...
BUT NRN STREAM ENERGY IS DIVING S ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER REGION. IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROF...A SHORTWAVE IS OVER
TX/OK. EXACTLY HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD DIVING NRN STREAM
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS LOOKING A BIT MORE
LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS.
DRIER AIR MASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FCST AREA OVER THE LAST 12-18HRS.
WHILE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...UPSTREAM KINL
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 700MB. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY MANIFEST ITSELF AS HIGHER BASED SCT-BKN
CU/STRATOCU THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WERE COMMON UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HERE TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC RATHER
THAN CYCLONIC AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHERE THE SHRA WERE OCCURRING...
DON`T EXPECT ANY -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...
KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY THIS AFTN. INLAND...DEEP MIXING TO
TOWARD 750MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MAY SEE A FEW READINGS AROUND 60F OVER THE SCNTRL. DWPTS WILL
MIX OUT INTO THE MID 20S THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND
30PCT IN THE INTERIOR W HALF THIS AFTN. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS/MOIST
GROUND WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS.
NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL CONTINUE S
INTO IA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PULL SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE N INTO IL
BY SUNRISE WED WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO ERN IN. PUSH OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF WAVE ALONG
WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD
LIFTING N INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NRN FRINGE OF PCPN MAY REACH
THE FAR E AND SE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE THU. INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN
THAT AREA. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS/1000-850MB THICKNESS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IF PCPN DOES IN FACT
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
...MODELS TRENDING BACK TO STRONGER SYSTEM/ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
END THE WEEK...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH WITH H5 HEIGHTS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMO
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL HINTS THAT
THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF BY FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH
ON LEAD FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP TO UPPER LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES TOWARD MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WHILE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING ALOFT
MAKES RETURN TO UPPER LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN UNDER FIRM INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH AND WORKED OVER
CP AIRMASS...ONLY MODERATE WARMING WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BLO NORMAL.
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF RUN
FROM TUE 5/13 WAS AN ABERATION...AS WITH THE 12Z RUN ON TUE 5/13 THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AGAIN...DRAWING THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
SFC WAVE BACK WEST AGAIN SPREADING QPF OVER MAINLY EAST THIRD OF CWA
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS NOT SET ON ANY ONE IDEA
THOUGH AS ESSENTIALLY WE CONTINUE TO SEE ALL THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...ENOUGH
OF TREND EMERGING TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM FARTHEST WEST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND PV
ANAMOLY AND ASSOCIATED QPF ON THURSDAY. FARTHEST EAST IDEA IS UKMET
WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF ITS FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS AND GEM ALONG
WITH 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND FOCUS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE AREA OF TROWAL/DEFORMATION PRECIP OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PTYPE FOR THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIKELY
WOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN COULD SEE JUST SNOW BY LATER AFTN.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE ECMWF
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/NAM THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS H7-H6
IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST CWA
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMP GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AT H7 DUE TO
PERSISTENT COLD/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AXIS OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR.
MAY BE GETTING LOST IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT FN CONVERGENCE IS
DECENT AND THERE IS ALSO FS VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD PIVOT ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY NNW WINDS UPSLOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AND NCNTRL CWA. AGAIN...THIS IS ONE MODEL RUN OF MANY
DIFFERENT TAKES ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN UPPER LOW DEEPENING AND
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING HAS SOME MERIT. UNCERTAINTY
OF THAT FEATURES PLACEMENT IS MAIN ISSUE FROM INTRODUCING THAT KIND
OF DETAIL TO FORECAST ATTM. TEMP GRADIENT ALOFT WEAKENS IN THE
AFTN...SO INTENSITY OF MID-LEVEL LIFT/FGEN SHOULD DO LIKEWISE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTN THOUGH. BASED ON LIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPS WELL BLO ZERO AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BLO 1300M...AND
NOT MUCH OF ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SFC LAYER SHOWING UP IN THE
SOUNDINGS...PTYPE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. BY FRIDAY AFTN...BLYR WARMING
WILL ALLOW FOR MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF.
NOW THE MAIN QUESTION TURNS TO SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH ANY SNOW THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON THE MAIN HURDLES OF WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
INTENSITY...TIME OF DAY...ALL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. BUT...AT LEAST
IN THESE LATITUDES IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF AT ALL TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON SNOWS. LOCAL RECORDS/OTHER ACCOUNTS INCLUDE A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPR MICHIGAN EARLY IN JUNE OF 1945...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OTHERS
THAN HAVE OCCURRED IN LATE MAY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS WISCONSIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS IF THE REVERSAL OF TRACK
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING COMES TO FRUITION...THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOOKING AT THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...GOOD PART OF SNOW
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO THE INSOLATION WILL
BE MINIMAL FACTOR IN CUTTING DOWN ON AMOUNTS...AND SNOW MAY FALL AT
GOOD CLIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FGEN
AND DEFORMATION AREA INCREASES AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS
TO START IS PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...AND
ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF NW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE
LIFT. NOTEABLE IS THAT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE 03Z SREF
MEMBERS TRENDED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING MUCH MORE
SNOW...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN PRINTING OUT AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MEMBERS OVER 10 INCHES. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT
IS SEEMING TO KEY ON LARGER SCALE FORCING IMPACTING MOST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS KIMT AND
EAST AS KERY. SREF MEAN SHOWS 2-4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN THAT IMT TO ERY
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUT MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS. AND THEN WE WILL WAIT
TO SEE WHAT THE LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE.
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG IT ENDS UP BEING...WILL LEAVE A WELL
ESTABLISHED CP AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WILL MIX TO AROUND H85 SO TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE 50S DEGREES THERE. RIDGE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL PACK A PUNCH NEAR LK SUPERIOR
/KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S/ AS WATERS OFFSHORE ARE STILL VERY
COLD OR EVEN ICE COVERED IN SOME AREAS.
SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL MODERATE INLAND WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GREAT LAKES SHORES MUCH COOLER.
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY SPOTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR THE SHORE...READINGS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...YES JUST RAIN...ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN
VFR CIGS. A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AT KSAW WITH NNE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WRLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AT IWD AND CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-25KT OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY AND MOSTLY UNDER 20KT OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC
LOW PRES THAT WILL LIFT N ACROSS LAKE HURON THU AND THEN TO JAMES
BAY BY FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS THU...MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHERLY WINDS
THU NIGHT WILL REACH 20-30KT OVER THE E HALF. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRI AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THU
AND FRI. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO WINDS
UNDER 20KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE
INTO FRI. SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL LINGER ON INTO SAT. RIGHT NOW...PCPN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT THERE IS LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...AND SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS IN
THE OFFING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ALL RIVERS TO HAVE AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THU/FRI OVER NRN UPPER MI. IF SO...HIGHER RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE SUSTAINED AND COULD RISE SOME FRI INTO SAT.
THE MAIN RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...
INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AT
REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ANOTHER
STRETCHING FM QUEBEC THRU THE SE CONUS. THE INTERACTION BTWN A
SHRTWV RIDING NNEWD IN THE STRONG SSW FLOW ALF TO THE E OF THE TROF
AXIS AND RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT
MID LVL DRYING UNDER THE JET SURGE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV LIFTING THRU NW
ONTARIO IS BRINGING DRY WX TO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOWER CLD IS LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WRN CWA WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR BLO SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRNS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS BEING ADVECTED TO THE E IN GUSTY SFC
W FLOW TO THE S OF DEPARTING SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS/
IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR...INCRSG ACYC NATURE OF THE
LLVL FLOW WITH CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE CLRG OF THE LO CLD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT...THE GUSTY
W WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG. UPSTREAM LO TEMPS THIS MRNG AND MOS
FCSTS INDICATE MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE 30S AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO
BTWN 0 AND -2C BY 12Z WED.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG/LLVL ACYC FLOW WL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS/DRY
WX AS PWAT FALLS TO 0.25-0.50 INCH. EXPECT SOME SC TO DVLP AWAY FM
THE STABILIZING/COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING CHILLY H85 TEMPS. THERE WL BE
SOME INCRS IN HI CLDS OVER AT LEAST THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING NE OUT OF THE BASE OF DEEP TROF IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LKS. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS YIELD MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S AWAY FM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW
DEWPTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 20S/MIN RH TO FALL TOWARD 25 PCT...
FAIRLY LGT WINDS/MOIST GROUND WL LIMIT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
...MODELS TRENDING BACK TO STRONGER SYSTEM/ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
END THE WEEK...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH WITH H5 HEIGHTS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMO
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL HINTS THAT
THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF BY FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH
ON LEAD FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP TO UPPER LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES TOWARD MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WHILE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING ALOFT
MAKES RETURN TO UPPER LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN UNDER FIRM INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH AND WORKED OVER
CP AIRMASS...ONLY MODERATE WARMING WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BLO NORMAL.
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF RUN
FROM TUE 5/13 WAS AN ABERATION...AS WITH THE 12Z RUN ON TUE 5/13 THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AGAIN...DRAWING THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
SFC WAVE BACK WEST AGAIN SPREADING QPF OVER MAINLY EAST THIRD OF CWA
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS NOT SET ON ANY ONE IDEA
THOUGH AS ESSENTIALLY WE CONTINUE TO SEE ALL THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...ENOUGH
OF TREND EMERGING TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM FARTHEST WEST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND PV
ANAMOLY AND ASSOCIATED QPF ON THURSDAY. FARTHEST EAST IDEA IS UKMET
WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF ITS FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS AND GEM ALONG
WITH 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND FOCUS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE AREA OF TROWAL/DEFORMATION PRECIP OVER THE EAST HALF OF
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PTYPE FOR THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIKELY
WOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN COULD SEE JUST SNOW BY LATER AFTN.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE ECMWF
AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/NAM THAT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS H7-H6
IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST CWA
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMP GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AT H7 DUE TO
PERSISTENT COLD/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AXIS OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR.
MAY BE GETTING LOST IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT FN CONVERGENCE IS
DECENT AND THERE IS ALSO FS VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD PIVOT ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY NNW WINDS UPSLOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AND NCNTRL CWA. AGAIN...THIS IS ONE MODEL RUN OF MANY
DIFFERENT TAKES ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN UPPER LOW DEEPENING AND
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING HAS SOME MERIT. UNCERTAINTY
OF THAT FEATURES PLACEMENT IS MAIN ISSUE FROM INTRODUCING THAT KIND
OF DETAIL TO FORECAST ATTM. TEMP GRADIENT ALOFT WEAKENS IN THE
AFTN...SO INTENSITY OF MID-LEVEL LIFT/FGEN SHOULD DO LIKEWISE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTN THOUGH. BASED ON LIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPS WELL BLO ZERO AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BLO 1300M...AND
NOT MUCH OF ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SFC LAYER SHOWING UP IN THE
SOUNDINGS...PTYPE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. BY FRIDAY AFTN...BLYR WARMING
WILL ALLOW FOR MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF.
NOW THE MAIN QUESTION TURNS TO SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH ANY SNOW THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON THE MAIN HURDLES OF WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
INTENSITY...TIME OF DAY...ALL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. BUT...AT LEAST
IN THESE LATITUDES IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF AT ALL TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON SNOWS. LOCAL RECORDS/OTHER ACCOUNTS INCLUDE A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPR MICHIGAN EARLY IN JUNE OF 1945...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OTHERS
THAN HAVE OCCURRED IN LATE MAY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS WISCONSIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS IF THE REVERSAL OF TRACK
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING COMES TO FRUITION...THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN. LOOKING AT THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...GOOD PART OF SNOW
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO THE INSOLATION WILL
BE MINIMAL FACTOR IN CUTTING DOWN ON AMOUNTS...AND SNOW MAY FALL AT
GOOD CLIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FGEN
AND DEFORMATION AREA INCREASES AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS
TO START IS PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...AND
ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF NW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE
LIFT. NOTEABLE IS THAT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE 03Z SREF
MEMBERS TRENDED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING MUCH MORE
SNOW...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN PRINTING OUT AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MEMBERS OVER 10 INCHES. HOWEVER...SREF OUTPUT
IS SEEMING TO KEY ON LARGER SCALE FORCING IMPACTING MOST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS IT SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS KIMT AND
EAST AS KERY. SREF MEAN SHOWS 2-4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN THAT IMT TO ERY
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUT MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS. AND THEN WE WILL WAIT
TO SEE WHAT THE LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE.
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG IT ENDS UP BEING...WILL LEAVE A WELL
ESTABLISHED CP AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WILL MIX TO AROUND H85 SO TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE 50S DEGREES THERE. RIDGE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL PACK A PUNCH NEAR LK SUPERIOR
/KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S/ AS WATERS OFFSHORE ARE STILL VERY
COLD OR EVEN ICE COVERED IN SOME AREAS.
SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL MODERATE INLAND WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GREAT LAKES SHORES MUCH COOLER.
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY SPOTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR THE SHORE...READINGS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...YES JUST RAIN...ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN
VFR CIGS. A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AT KSAW WITH NNE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WRLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AT IWD AND CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
EXPECT W WINDS UP TO 30 KKTS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING
NEWD THRU ONTARIO...STRONGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE TERRAIN
FUNNELS THIS FLOW BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE...TO DIMINISH
TO UNDER 20-25 KTS TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT CLOSER TO APPROACHING HI PRES. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN UNDER
25 KTS THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT N
WINDS ON THU INTO FRI MAY REACH 25-30 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IF A LO PRES SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE W. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF 0.10IN OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE E
THIRD OF UPPER MI. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS RIVER WISE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. THEY INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL...WHICH IS
SLOWLY FALLING...AND THE MICHIGAMME AT REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND
CRYSTAL FALLS...WHICH LOOK TO HAVE ALL CRESTED AS WELL AND ARE SLOWLY
ON THEIR WAY DOWN. RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ANOTHER
STRETCHING FM QUEBEC THRU THE SE CONUS. THE INTERACTION BTWN A
SHRTWV RIDING NNEWD IN THE STRONG SSW FLOW ALF TO THE E OF THE TROF
AXIS AND RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT
MID LVL DRYING UNDER THE JET SURGE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV LIFTING THRU NW
ONTARIO IS BRINGING DRY WX TO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOWER CLD IS LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WRN CWA WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR BLO SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRNS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS BEING ADVECTED TO THE E IN GUSTY SFC
W FLOW TO THE S OF DEPARTING SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS/
IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR...INCRSG ACYC NATURE OF THE
LLVL FLOW WITH CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE CLRG OF THE LO CLD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT...THE GUSTY
W WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG. UPSTREAM LO TEMPS THIS MRNG AND MOS
FCSTS INDICATE MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE 30S AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO
BTWN 0 AND -2C BY 12Z WED.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG/LLVL ACYC FLOW WL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS/DRY
WX AS PWAT FALLS TO 0.25-0.50 INCH. EXPECT SOME SC TO DVLP AWAY FM
THE STABILIZING/COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING CHILLY H85 TEMPS. THERE WL BE
SOME INCRS IN HI CLDS OVER AT LEAST THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING NE OUT OF THE BASE OF DEEP TROF IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LKS. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS YIELD MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S AWAY FM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW
DEWPTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 20S/MIN RH TO FALL TOWARD 25 PCT...
FAIRLY LGT WINDS/MOIST GROUND WL LIMIT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE
AREAS IS DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE AT 500MB. THE 500MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN BY 06Z THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM AROUND 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND THEN SHIFT OFF ACROSS LAKE
HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS THIS PERIOD WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP /RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS/ FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AN OVERALL DRIER SOLUTION HAS BEEN COMING IN WITH THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 12Z THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS...AND THE
SFC LOW SURGING N ACROSS OH AND E MI. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FARTHEST W OFF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING A
WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE COOL N-NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6C. THE WETTEST SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE 18Z
NAM CAME IN WITH 0.25IN OF LIQUID OVER E UPPER MI /MAINLY E OF
MUNISING/ FROM 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY/. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A
DRIER SCENARIO FOR NOW...BUT KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS ONE...AS A LOT
CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW
TO EXIT INTO SW QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN
VFR CIGS. A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AT KSAW WITH NNE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WRLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AT IWD AND CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
EXPECT W WINDS UP TO 30 KKTS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING
NEWD THRU ONTARIO...STRONGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE TERRAIN
FUNNELS THIS FLOW BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE...TO DIMINISH
TO UNDER 20-25 KTS TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT CLOSER TO APPROACHING HI PRES. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN UNDER
25 KTS THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT N
WINDS ON THU INTO FRI MAY REACH 25-30 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IF A LO PRES SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE W. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF 0.10IN OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE E
THIRD OF UPPER MI. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS RIVER WISE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. THEY INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL...WHICH IS
SLOWLY FALLING...AND THE MICHIGAMME AT REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND
CRYSTAL FALLS...WHICH LOOK TO HAVE ALL CRESTED AS WELL AND ARE SLOWLY
ON THEIR WAY DOWN. RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
901 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH
DRIFTING SE THROUGH THE REGION AND S/WV...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...MOVING FROM THE NW TO
SE THROUGH WRN AR. THIS INCREASING LIFT FROM THE S/WV AIDED WITH VERY
COLD TEMPS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN SE AR AND NRN LA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE
SE. RUC AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST
CURRENTLY AND BEGIN TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LAPS
INDICATES AROUND 500-700 J/KG IN THE FAR NW DELTA AREAS. ALSO DUE TO
MUCH LOWER FREEZING LEVEL ~8K FT/WBZ HEIGHTS AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (~
-5C TO -8C AT H7 AND -21C TO -25C AT H5 PER KJAN/KLZK 00Z
SOUNDINGS)...THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IN THE FAR NW DELTA. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TO SEE HOW THE STORMS HOLD UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. IF STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WILL LOOK INTO REMOVING SEVERE
WORDING FROM HWO.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THE FORECAST IS RUNNING ON TRACK. ONLY MADE
CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH HAIL SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO GLH/GWO BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE HIGH
BASED SO ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIKELY COME FROM LOWER VIS IF
THE SITE IS UNDER ANY ACTIVITY AND THAT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. DUE TO
THIS...WILL NOT CARRY ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE DONE BY DAYBREAK WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTY WEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH VFR FLIGHT CATS AGAIN. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IS PIVOTING AROUND THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...WITH ONE PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY.
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO PRESENTS ITSELF FOR TONIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C ACROSS THE DELTA INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. UPSTREAM ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BROKEN OUT THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF THESE CELLS ARE PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...WITH A FEW PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
BASED ON ONGOING ACTIVITY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE RUNS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BELIEVE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
DELTA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO TOWARD JACKSON. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LIKE HATTIESBURG AND
MERIDIAN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL AND
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT ACROSS THE DELTA QUITE LOW IN THE 6-8 KFT RANGE.
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HANGING AROUND...MANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. IN FACT...WITH THE CLOUD BASE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN A FROZEN STATE AT THE CLOUD BASE. THE LACK OF BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CRITERIA
HAIL...BUT WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND PROGGED 700 MB WINDS AROUND 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE DELTA IT IS POSSIBLE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
BECOME ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND OCCASIONALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE FROM TIME TO TIME.
THUS WE HAVE ADDED A LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DELTA AREA IN THE HWO/GRAPHICAST PRODUCTS.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH ALL
INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
PLEASANT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRADES TO THE EAST...FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE JET STREAM
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...A WEST-TO-
EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES RIDE
ACROSS THIS AREA... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. FARTHER SOUTH...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN SPITE OF THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL STILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS
TOMORROW...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE MODERATING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL. /DL/
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GEM, NAVY AND UKMET MODELS
WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE FORECASTED UPPER PATTERN.
THE ANOMALOUS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER FEATURE WITH THE
AID OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS FOR SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C WITH
500 MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. 0-2 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40
KNOTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55KTS. CIPS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SIGNALS WITH THIS PATTERN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A
NUMBER OF HAIL REPORTS AND A FEW WIND REPORTS. THE MODELS NOW SHOW
THIS POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. DUE TO THE INITIALLY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS. AS WE
PUSH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UNSEASONABLE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AS MEAN RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT
WILL HAVE MAXIMUM HEIGHT RISES BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. SO EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX
GUIDANCE. FOR POPS MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE
FOR THE WEEKEND./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 47 76 53 81 / 25 8 6 7
MERIDIAN 44 76 49 83 / 7 6 7 5
VICKSBURG 49 75 53 80 / 29 10 7 10
HATTIESBURG 46 79 53 84 / 7 2 8 6
NATCHEZ 49 76 54 81 / 8 5 13 12
GREENVILLE 50 76 54 75 / 49 11 17 17
GREENWOOD 49 74 50 76 / 28 10 18 14
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/BB/DL/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW YORK AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...COOLER SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ATOP THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1033 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS WRN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
PRIMARY FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...MAINLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUED MARITIME MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NEW YORK BIGHT. AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST...AND WITH PW
VALUES INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO 1.50"...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MA/CT AND OCCASIONALLY LIFT
NWD ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...DESPITE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT TO COVER THESE PERIODIC
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS BASED ON LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND FAST MOVEMENT OF
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS. AFTER SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WEST OF
THE GREEN MTNS...AND EVEN A LOCALIZED 92F AT KMSS WITH DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN
TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WIND WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPR 50S IN FAR NERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW PROGRESSING FRONT WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY JETS AT
LOW LVLS AND UPPER LVLS WILL BRING MOISTURE FEED RESULTING IN
PWATS AROUND 1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. 925MB AND 850MB WIND ANOMALIES OF 3-5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIP ON SOUTH TO SSE
FACING SLOPES...WITH HIGHEST QPF EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION EDGES INTO THE WRN SLV FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT STRONGEST AREA OF DEFORMATION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH.
UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THIS
DEFORMATION AREA TO CRAWL ACROSS NRN NY FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. LATE
FRIDAY NGT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE
EWD OVER CPV AND ACROSS VT AS THE FRONT GAINS SOME MOMENTUM DUE
TO UPPER FLOW SHIFTING MORE WWD. STRONGEST JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...JUST BEHIND LOW TO MID LVL DEFORMATION.
AS THE FRONT EXITS VT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RAIN WILL BECM
MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER AS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SO GENERAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND 5C AND SFC WINDS DECREASE...SHIFTING SW/W...THEN W/NW
SATURDAY NGT.
STORM TOTAL QPF AMNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2.5
INCHES...WITH HIGHEST AMNTS ACROSS ADKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS. PSBL
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND RIVERS WILL RISE SEVERAL
FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CUTOFF
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MEANDERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING ALMOST CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH LIKELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS AND A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CRNT RADAR CONTS TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN VT THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES. BAND BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY AND
WL IMPACT MSS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 35
TO 55 KNOTS...ADVECTING IN LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WL
MENTION MVFR CIGS BY 06Z TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MPV AFT 06Z...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE SE ENHANCEMENT.
FEEL WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LLVL
STABILIZE...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS AT
MSS/BTV OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVING
AT MSS BTWN 13-15Z FRIDAY AND AFT 18Z FOR SLK...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN BAND AT SLK/MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV BTWN
10Z-18Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNTS ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS WL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES BY 00Z SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z SAT AND 15Z SAT
ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH VIS BLW 3SM AND CIGS AROUND 1000 FT. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF LLVL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WL BE
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WL
CREATE AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE. A SLOW CLRING TREND WL OCCUR AFT
18Z SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VIS WL PREVAIL THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KTS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF COLDER WATER THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BROAD LAKE AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH
OPEN SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...BTV STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
947 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALMOST OF
SYR BGM AVP SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF FORECAST AND MODELS. THIS IS A
PRIMER WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON RIGHT BEHIND IT. WITH FLOOD WATCH
NOT IN EFFECT YET SHOULD STILL BE OKAY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DROPPED OFF. BIGGER PROBLEM ON ITS WAY WITH STEADIER RAIN MOVG N
TO MD NOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO LATE MORNING.
6 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. CELLS IN THE AREA MOVING MOSTLY NORTH SO SOME
TRAINING. UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA. WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
MOVES INTO YATES WHICH WAS HIT HARD 2 NIGHTS AGO.
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRT DISC DUE TO ONGOING WX AND EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
MOISTURE MVG INTO THE AREA HAD OF A COLD FNT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
IN THE AREA OVRNGT...WITH OPCNL IFR LATE AS HEAVY PCPN MVES IN.
ALSO...VSBYS WILL DROP AS PCPN MVES INTO THE AREA. ISLTD TRW PSBL
IN ELM THIS EVE...OTRW...MOST HEAVIER CONV WILL WAIT INTIL AFT 12Z
AS THE FNT APRCHS. SE WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME SWLY AS IT
APCHS...THEN WLY BHD THE FNT ON FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES
OF HALF AN INCH AN HOUR DUE TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT A
FEW HEADWATER RIVER POINTS FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. MOST PRONE AREA
FOR FF IS THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-
022>025-055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
811 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. CELLS IN THE AREA MOVING MOSTLY NORTH SO SOME
TRAINING. UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA. WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
MOVES INTO YATES WHICH WAS HIT HARD 2 NIGHTS AGO.
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRT DISC DUE TO ONGOING WX AND EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
MOISTURE MVG INTO THE AREA HAD OF A COLD FNT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
IN THE AREA OVRNGT...WITH OPCNL IFR LATE AS HEAVY PCPN MVES IN.
ALSO...VSBYS WILL DROP AS PCPN MVES INTO THE AREA. ISLTD TRW PSBL
IN ELM THIS EVE...OTRW...MOST HEAVIER CONV WILL WAIT INTIL AFT 12Z
AS THE FNT APRCHS. SE WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME SWLY AS IT
APCHS...THEN WLY BHD THE FNT ON FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES
OF HALF AN INCH AN HOUR DUE TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT A
FEW HEADWATER RIVER POINTS FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. MOST PRONE AREA
FOR FF IS THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
746 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRT DISC DUE TO ONGOING WX AND EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
MOISTURE MVG INTO THE AREA HAD OF A COLD FNT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
IN THE AREA OVRNGT...WITH OPCNL IFR LATE AS HEAVY PCPN MVES IN.
ALSO...VSBYS WILL DROP AS PCPN MVES INTO THE AREA. ISLTD TRW PSBL
IN ELM THIS EVE...OTRW...MOST HEAVIER CONV WILL WAIT INTIL AFT 12Z
AS THE FNT APRCHS. SE WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME SWLY AS IT
APCHS...THEN WLY BHD THE FNT ON FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW YORK AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...COOLER SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ATOP THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS WRN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOOKING AT SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...MAINLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUED MARITIME MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NEW YORK BIGHT. AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST...AND WITH PW
VALUES INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO 1.50"...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH EVEN WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT TO COVER
THESE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMTS WILL GENERALLY BE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS BASED ON LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND
FAST MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS. AFTER SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS...AND EVEN A LOCALIZED 92F AT KMSS
WITH DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
WARM AGAIN TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WIND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPR 50S FAR NERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW PROGRESSING FRONT WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY JETS AT
LOW LVLS AND UPPER LVLS WILL BRING MOISTURE FEED RESULTING IN
PWATS AROUND 1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. 925MB AND 850MB WIND ANOMALIES OF 3-5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIP ON SOUTH TO SSE
FACING SLOPES...WITH HIGHEST QPF EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION EDGES INTO THE WRN SLV FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT STRONGEST AREA OF DEFORMATION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH.
UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THIS
DEFORMATION AREA TO CRAWL ACROSS NRN NY FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. LATE
FRIDAY NGT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE
EWD OVER CPV AND ACROSS VT AS THE FRONT GAINS SOME MOMENTUM DUE
TO UPPER FLOW SHIFTING MORE WWD. STRONGEST JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...JUST BEHIND LOW TO MID LVL DEFORMATION.
AS THE FRONT EXITS VT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RAIN WILL BECM
MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER AS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SO GENERAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND 5C AND SFC WINDS DECREASE...SHIFTING SW/W...THEN W/NW
SATURDAY NGT.
STORM TOTAL QPF AMNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2.5
INCHES...WITH HIGHEST AMNTS ACROSS ADKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS. PSBL
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND RIVERS WILL RISE SEVERAL
FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CUTOFF
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MEANDERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING ALMOST CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH LIKELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS AND A
LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CRNT RADAR CONTS TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN VT THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES. BAND BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY AND
WL IMPACT MSS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 35
TO 55 KNOTS...ADVECTING IN LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WL
MENTION MVFR CIGS BY 06Z TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MPV AFT 06Z...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE SE ENHANCEMENT.
FEEL WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LLVL
STABILIZE...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS AT
MSS/BTV OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVING
AT MSS BTWN 13-15Z FRIDAY AND AFT 18Z FOR SLK...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN BAND AT SLK/MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV BTWN
10Z-18Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNTS ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS WL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES BY 00Z SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z SAT AND 15Z SAT
ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH VIS BLW 3SM AND CIGS AROUND 1000 FT. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF LLVL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WL BE
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WL
CREATE AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE. A SLOW CLRING TREND WL OCCUR AFT
18Z SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VIS WL PREVAIL THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KTS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF COLDER WATER THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BROAD LAKE AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH
OPEN SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...BTV STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BRING DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
FORMING UP ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF THE LAKE
ONTARIO BREEZE BOUNDARY AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
RAPID UPDATE AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
ON THIS AND I HAVE CHOSEN A COMBO OF HRRR AND WRF FOR THE NEAR
TERM...THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN A BLEND OF WRF AND NAM12 LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO MOVE NORTH FROM NORTHERN PA AND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNPOURS
AND A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR THE RAIN TO MOVE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...
THEN PLACE A WARM AND HUMID BUT CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING MOST OF THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. IT
IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE HEAVIER AND TRAINING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN NY. THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOLLOWING LATER
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND IMPACTS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES WILL SET UP A DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE ON THE BIG PICTURE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH UNCERTAINTY ONLY IN TIMING. FORECAST USES A BROAD
CONSENSUS FOR THIS...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO BE FROM
BUF-ROC THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ROC-ART ON FRIDAY. FROM THIS...MOST
AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE
STEADIEST RAINS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CAUSE FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A SOUTHERLY 50 KT 850 MB LLJ
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE (PWATS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES) FROM THE GULF INTO
OUR REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT...HOWEVER THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN TO ALL LOCATIONS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OR
TRAINING...WHICH ALSO COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY RISK...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY
RAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY. THEN ON SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLL SIDE...TOPPING OUT AT
AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
THESE SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE...POSING NO ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWERS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +1
AT 850 MB...WITH WEAK RIDING PATCHY FROST IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD NOT BE
TERRIBLY HEAVY GIVEN TH SOURCE OF THE LOW...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE TO FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS AND COME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF SLOWLY NUDGE THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD ON THE BACK OF THE
LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INT HE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HRRR AND WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG ILL DEFINED BOUNDARIES INLAND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AND
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THESE BOUNDARY INDUCED
STORMS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MVFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE MULTIPLE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
PRIMARY RISK WILL BE FOR FLASH FLOODING. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THIS PERIOD...IT WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BIT WITH A PERSISTENTLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS IN OUR CWA WHICH WILL BE
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
THESE INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGIONS.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ALL AREAS WILL GET A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BASIN AVERAGES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS MAKES RIVER FORECASTS DIFFICULT SINCE
AMOUNTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS BASINS. EVEN SO...THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE
TO PUSH THE GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY RIVERS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
MEANWHILE THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER CREEKS WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE
TO CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL POSSIBLY CAUSING MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING (OR NONE AT ALL) IN THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
CREEKS. THE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO KNOW UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE EVENT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ003>005-013-
014-021.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-002-
010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
115 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOAKING RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 115 AM... LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE RAIN CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN
TRAINING ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE FINGER LAKES
ACROSS NORTHERN CHENANGO COUNTY. DUAL POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF
OVER 5 INCHES IN PARTS OF YATES COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA. WATCHING ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOPEFULLY
THAT CLUSTER WILL LIFT NORTH AND PASS TO THE WEST OF AREAS THAT
ARE GETTING HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY. THE EXPECTATION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE FROM
NW PA NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER EAST IN THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
1015 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST
WEST OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, PRIMARILY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE
NRN PTN OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS, BGM AREA AND NORTHEAST PA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AS
AIRMASS HERE IS STABLE UNDER COOL SE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER FINGER LAKES AND NRN CWA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER
POPS INTO CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT EXCEPT DRY SE FA.
6 PM UPDATE...LATEST LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL BGM AREA. THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
WYOMING VALLEY. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FEATURE ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
AREA ITS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES BEFORE
STALLING AND MOVING BACK EAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN CAPE AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LESSEN. CONVECTION OVER GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NRN PTN OF CWA LATE
TONIGHT BUT BOUNDARY WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THEN.
3 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L60S
IN THE WEST. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE WITH A WEAK WAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTORM WILL GET GOING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVE.
THE UL RIDGE ALSO MOVES THROUGH CREATING A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH DEWPT
TEMPS...MIN TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM U40S EAST TO A60 FAR WEST.
DEWPTS DROP AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE EXIT OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY IN ERN MICIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
WED AND THU WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS. WEAK FORCING AND
MORE COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WED WILL BE
BETTER THAN THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NW NY THEN LIFTS
NORTH WED NGT. THU LITTLE FORCING AS WE WAIT FOR THE MAIN SHOW
WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE MISS
VALLEY TO MICHIGAN THEN INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF A DEEP DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT
KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OF WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR ISOLATED HYDRO PROBLEMS.
THIS RAIN HELPED BY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AND PWATS OF 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPTS 60S AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS NEAR NORMAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS INDICATING CDFNT WL BE BISECTING CWA AT BEGINNING
OF LONG TERM. HV GONE WITH LKLY/CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH
CHC FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED FOLLOWING
FROPA. REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WL FEATURE SHOWERS EACH PD COURTESY
OF UPR LVL LOW HANGING BACK TO THE WEST. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE
CASES, EXPECT THAT AFT 12Z SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS WL BE OF
THE MORE HIT AND MISS VARIETY WITH MOSTLY MISSES. THUS, THRU THE
END OF THE LONG TERM WL KEEP 20-30 POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPS DRG THE PD EXPECTED TO BE BLO NRML UNDER EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.
FOLLOWED WPC GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES BTWN MED RANGE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE
PROJECTED MARINE LAYER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR LATEST
FORECAST INCLUDES A TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR
CEILINGS FROM AVP UP TO ITH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, THEN A
PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND
5000 FEET.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE
NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY
DAYBREAK. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER RIDGING HAS KEPT THE
DIURNALLY INDUCED/DRIVEN CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM...INCLUDING ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR HOURLY
REFLECTIVITY MODEL RUN HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH REALITY
AND NOW INDICATES NO PCPN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. SKIES OVERALL WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SFC BASED INVERSION TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD FOG OR LOW STRATUS
OCCURRENCE. FAMOUS LAST WORDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO A MINIMUM DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC WINDS
PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ACTIVE ENOUGH...5 MPH OR LESS. USING THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT MIN TEMPS AS GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...STAYED
JUST ABOVE LAST NIGHTS MINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS EXTENDING BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED E-W JUST SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON, SC. THIS IS PUMPING WARM SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE IS DRIFTING
EAST...REMAINING NEARLY OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE TWO FEATURES
TOGETHER ARE CREATING A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING TO AROUND 90 LOCALLY...4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPS AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 60S
HAS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CONGESTED FIELDS FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW REFLECTIVITY
ECHOES HAVE APPEARED THIS AFTN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
SHOWERS ANYWHERE IS DECREASING RAPIDLY. AS EXPECTED...COVERAGE HAS
BEEN MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO MORE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARDS...AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER...SUNSET...AS WILL ANY DIURNALLY FORCED CLOUD COVER.
ALTHOUGH SKY CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME MIXING...AND THUS LOWS WILL FALL ONLY TO AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...COOLING TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND...AS ANOTHER ABOVE
NORMAL NIGHT OCCURS LOCALLY. THE AIR MASS IS PRIMARILY UNCHANGED
FROM LAST NIGHT...SO PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...BUT
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE LAST WARM AND RAIN FREE
DAY BEFORE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES GET UNDERWAY. EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A CAP ON
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. AT THE SURFACE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW
GOOD INLAND PROGRESS OF A SEA BREEZE THAT WILL TAPER THE HEAT
ANYWHERE EAST OF ITS PROGRESS. A SHARPENING AND PHASING TROUGH OVER
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
FOR SOME DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST...KICKING IN OVER
WESTERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAPID WEST TO EAST INC IN
CLOUDS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES THAT INCREASE IN THE
SAME FASHION ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE
MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER COMES THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT HOWEVER AS
ENERGY BELLYING UNDER THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE
BRINGS A SURFACE LOW UP THE COAST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
A NEAR CERTAINTY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS A BIT HIGHER TO
DIAGNOSE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG INCLUDING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR THE MOST PART
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT EVEN ABSENT DEEP CONVECTION THERE MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE STRAY TORNADO SPIN UP GIVEN VERY STRONG SRH
IN BOTH THE 0-3KM AND 0-1KM LAYERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ONGOING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA.
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 12-18 UTC WINDOW.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS DURING THE FRI-TUE
TIME FRAME...SO THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO EACH DAY.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID-UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS. IMPULSES CIRCULATING THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY
AFFECT THE AREA SUN-TUE AND THEREFORE CAN`T RULE OUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL ALTOGETHER...BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
EARLY TUE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE THE SAME POTENTIAL FOR IFR
FOG/ST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE GENERALLY 08-12Z WHEN AIRMASS
IS COOLEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE 12-15Z
WITH VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE SE-S DURING THE
DAY...STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD PUMP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH
MVFR/IFR THU AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING. VFR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SFC
HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL DETERMINE WIND DIRECTIONS. NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...LOOK
FOR SSW-SW DIRECTIONS...SOUTH OF THE AXIS LOOK FOR SSE-SSW
DIRECTIONS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE AND THUS WIND
SPEEDS IN GENERAL AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. EXCEPTION 10 TO 15 KT NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE DEMISE OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT. WITH A DECENT FETCH IN PLACE
AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE...A SOLID 2 FOOT SE PSEUDO GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIODS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS.
COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND-WAVES...A SOLID 2 TO 3 FOOT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE REMAINS IN
PLACE...RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE
SEA BREEZE WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS EXIST. THESE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME A UNIFORM SSW WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL
AND S/SW WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...QUITE A BIT OF DICHOTOMY BETWEEN THE PERIODS
OF THE SHORT TERM. STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND OUT
OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT WITH A CENTER REMOVED NORTH AND EAST OF WHAT IS
MORE TYPICAL DURING THE SPRING. THE WIND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT BUT WNA
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ON THURSDAY WILL SIMILARLY BE FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL
SHOW A STEEP RAMP UP THOUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE GETTING CARVED
OUT OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES UP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE
ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY
AND SHIFT TO AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WIND DIRECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED AS SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP BELOW 10 KT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MODIFY WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRESENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE REGION AND THAT/S THE MODEL I/VE USED AS
MY TEMPLATE FOR THE ONSET OF PCPN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS OF 1015 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER
THE NE GA...MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC PIEDMONT STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE. THE STRATUS IS STARTING TO MIX INTO CUMULIFORM CLOUD
STREETS...THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER THESE ZONES
UNTIL AROUND NOON. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING ABUNDANT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. UNTIL THAT TIME...SOMEWHAT DRIER BNDRY LAYER AIR SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION IS LIKELY TO
BE THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS WHERE SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
AS OF DAYBREAK...STILL ALL QUIET ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NWD FROM AL TO TN SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST IN A
PLUME OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK...INTERESTING. ONE MORE DAY OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH BEFORE THINGS REALLY GO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT SHOULD
CUT DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH ROUGHLY
THE END OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD /22Z/. THE LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BELIE HOW CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE. STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE AIM ON NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE BLUE
RIDGE BY SUNSET. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
ALL MANNER OF FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH CONCERNS THROUGH
SUNRISE...MAINLY OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...SO IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT ANY RAIN BEFORE THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WOULD ONLY SERVE
TO WET DOWN THE SOIL. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
AND THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE S FACING ESCARPMENT
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK FEW INCHES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL WILL THEN STRETCH UP THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD VIRGINIA LATER
IN THE DAY. THINK IT BEST TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE MOST
VULNERABLE/FLASHY ZONE ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE NOW...RATHER THAN
DUMPING IT OFF ON THE DAY SHIFT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHILE IT IS
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE BETTER RISK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THAT CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MORE FAVORABLE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE SCENARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN PART
OF SC. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES TO HAVE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST
ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RIDGES ALONG EACH COAST...AND A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE UP THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THURSDAY MORNING. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT...IF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT
ROB MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
STRONG...CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE
POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
DRYING FORM THE SW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FORM THE W BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE MOVING ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL LONG OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDER TN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...AT FIRST DUE
TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER...AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF STATES. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH THE GFS CLOSING ITS LOW OFF
AGAIN...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW...NOW CLOSED OFF IN THE ECMWF
AS WELL...MOVED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE UPSTREAM REMAINS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT LEAVES OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING FORM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENS
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
SURFACE RIDGE...SENDING INCREASING CLOUDS OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST...THE EASTERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD COVER IS DIVERTED TO THE SOUTH...EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY IN
THE PLAINS BEGINS MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DOES SPREAD SW TOWARD OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL EARLY
ON...TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ABATES AND
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CU FIELD HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS
DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING SCT040 CIGS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE PCPN AND LOW CIGS WILL MOVE IN
AROUND 0800 UTC. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH I
THINK THE BEST BET FOR THUNDER WILL BE LATER THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP A LITTLE. IFR CIGS SHOULD LAST AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS AT KCLT...EXCEPT THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE IN SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER. EXPECTING SHRA/TSTMS TO AFFECT
KAND FIRST...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IFR CIGS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PCPN. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AND FOR NOW I/VE KEPT IFR CIGS THROUGH 18 UTC AT ALL SITES
TMRW.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 93% MED 74% HIGH 88%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 75% HIGH 83%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 86% HIGH 85%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 73%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 80% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 80% HIGH 92%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR GAZ010.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MODIFY WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRESENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE REGION AND THAT/S THE MODEL I/VE USED AS
MY TEMPLATE FOR THE ONSET OF PCPN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS OF 1015 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER
THE NE GA...MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC PIEDMONT STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE. THE STRATUS IS STARTING TO MIX INTO CUMULIFORM CLOUD
STREETS...THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER THESE ZONES
UNTIL AROUND NOON. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING ABUNDANT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. UNTIL THAT TIME...SOMEWHAT DRIER BNDRY LAYER AIR SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION IS LIKELY TO
BE THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS WHERE SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
AS OF DAYBREAK...STILL ALL QUIET ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NWD FROM AL TO TN SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST IN A
PLUME OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK...INTERESTING. ONE MORE DAY OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH BEFORE THINGS REALLY GO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT SHOULD
CUT DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH ROUGHLY
THE END OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD /22Z/. THE LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BELIE HOW CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE. STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE AIM ON NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE BLUE
RIDGE BY SUNSET. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
ALL MANNER OF FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH CONCERNS THROUGH
SUNRISE...MAINLY OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...SO IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT ANY RAIN BEFORE THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WOULD ONLY SERVE
TO WET DOWN THE SOIL. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
AND THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE S FACING ESCARPMENT
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK FEW INCHES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL WILL THEN STRETCH UP THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD VIRGINIA LATER
IN THE DAY. THINK IT BEST TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE MOST
VULNERABLE/FLASHY ZONE ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE NOW...RATHER THAN
DUMPING IT OFF ON THE DAY SHIFT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHILE IT IS
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE BETTER RISK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THAT CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MORE FAVORABLE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE SCENARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN PART
OF SC. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES TO HAVE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST
ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RIDGES ALONG EACH COAST...AND A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE UP THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THURSDAY MORNING. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT...IF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT
ROB MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
STRONG...CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE
POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
DRYING FORM THE SW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FORM THE W BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE MOVING ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL LONG OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDER TN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...AT FIRST DUE
TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER...AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF STATES. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT SE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH THE GFS CLOSING ITS LOW OFF
AGAIN...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW...NOW CLOSED OFF IN THE ECMWF
AS WELL...MOVED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE UPSTREAM REMAINS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT LEAVES OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING FORM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENS
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
SURFACE RIDGE...SENDING INCREASING CLOUDS OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST...THE EASTERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD COVER IS DIVERTED TO THE SOUTH...EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY IN
THE PLAINS BEGINS MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DOES SPREAD SW TOWARD OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL EARLY
ON...TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ABATES AND
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP BY
MIDDAY AND MIGHT BE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
START BACKING A BIT SE BY SUNSET. NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. BUT...THE WHEELS
FALL OFF AFTER THAT. EXPECT A RAPID ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AND MOUNTAINS...THUS HAVE KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED
WITH A PROB30 IN THIS ISSUANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY...
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR PREVAILING VIS/CEILING. THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR
AFTER 08Z...AND THIS WILL BE HANDLED IN A TEMPO GROUP.
ELSEWHERE...MTN VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z OR SO ONCE AGAIN.
LOW END MVFR CIGS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER NE GA AND THE WRN
UPSTATE. THE LLVL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK...BUT CONSIDERING HOW RAPIDLY
THE CIGS ARE INCREASING...WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS AT THE UPSTATE SITES. WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT IN THE
EARLY EVENING EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING OVER GA TAKING AIM ON
THE BLUE RIDGE AND MTNS. THERE COULD BE A RAPID ONSET OF MVFR
CEILING IN THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ALL THE TAFS WILL FEATURE A
PERIOD OF PROB30 THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY A TEMPO FOR IFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BETTER
CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 93% MED 74% HIGH 88%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 75% HIGH 83%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 86% HIGH 85%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 73%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 80% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 80% HIGH 92%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR GAZ010.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
NO CHANGES MADE IN FORECAST. ALL IS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS S CNTRL SD TO THE SRN BLACK HILLS...THENCE NW WARD INTO SE
MT. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY SOME CUMULUS CONVECTION ON VSBL SAT AND
BY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON NAM 700 MB. AT SURFACE A ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE WITH SOME THETAE GRADIENT MARKS THE FRONT. CONVECTION
IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF CAMPBELL COUNTY.
THESE ARE FAVORED AREAS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO
DVLP THIS AFTN. HRRR MODEL IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MT TO THE SD/ND BORDER TO NORTHERN WI. FEATURE BEING
DRIVEN BY WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER EASTERN MT.
AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES. PATTERN WILL REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH/WEST AND STALL OVER
NORTHEAST WY INTO CENTRAL NE. EARLY MORNING VIRGA/SPRINKLES WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 100J/KG.
INTERSECTION OF TERRAIN AND WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LOW COVERAGE SHRA/STRAY TS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A DIURNAL MINIMUM OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 15-20KT 850MB WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RESULT WILL BE A FEW DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BOTH NAM/GFS NOW SHOWING A BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
THE CWA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS. UPPER
FLOW WOULD THEN BECOME MORE SWRLY WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SE. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. SOME -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...MAINLY OVER THE BLKHLS. -SHRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY NWRLY WINDS OVER PTNS OF THE SD PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
935 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
NO CHANGES MADE IN FORECAST. ALL IS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS S CNTRL SD TO THE SRN BLACK HILLS...THENCE NW WARD INTO SE
MT. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY SOME CUMULUS CONVECTION ON VSBL SAT AND
BY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON NAM 700 MB. AT SURFACE A ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE WITH SOME THETAE GRADIENT MARKS THE FRONT. CONVECTION
IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF CAMPBELL COUNTY.
THESE ARE FAVORED AREAS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO
DVLP THIS AFTN. HRRR MODEL IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MT TO THE SD/ND BORDER TO NORTHERN WI. FEATURE BEING
DRIVEN BY WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR OVER EASTERN MT.
AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES. PATTERN WILL REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
TODAY/TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH/WEST AND STALL OVER
NORTHEAST WY INTO CENTRAL NE. EARLY MORNING VIRGA/SPRINKLES WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 100J/KG.
INTERSECTION OF TERRAIN AND WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LOW COVERAGE SHRA/STRAY TS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A DIURNAL MINIMUM OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 15-20KT 850MB WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RESULT WILL BE A FEW DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BOTH NAM/GFS NOW SHOWING A BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
THE CWA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS. UPPER
FLOW WOULD THEN BECOME MORE SWRLY WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SE. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
GENERALLY ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A FEW -TSRA...WILL OCCUR
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AGAIN
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1119 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LONG WAVE TROF JUST EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. LONG WAVES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
MOVING LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AMPLIFICATION THAT HAD BEEN UNDERWAY
HAS CEASED. SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LONG WAVE
TROF OVER OUR CWA. ONE HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH ANOTHER VERY
SUBTLE ONE JUST BARELY VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP APPROACHING
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER NE WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WELL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT WAVE
LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER NE WYOMING INTO THE BLACK HILLS.
THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IN MODEST 700 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SHOWN BY THE NAM. TOMORROW NIGHT THERE IS A HINT OF
ANOTHER WAVE...BUT LESS CERTAINTY ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.
CONVECTION IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECASTS OF 500MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.
WITH STRONG SFC HEATING...THIS IMPLIES CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND USED THE NAM FOR
SURFACE WINDS...WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN AFTN SPEEDS.
BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN QUITE COLD LATELY...I DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FAST
MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE NW CONUS. UPPER FLOW WOULD THEN BECOME MORE SWRLY
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SE. THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LCL MVFR VSBY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
820 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST...AND NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE LINE OF SHOWERS NOW OVER WEST TN MOVES
IN. THE RUC AND LOCAL WRF PROJECT THE SHOWERS TO BE AT THE PLATEAU
AROUND 12Z...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTED TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
650 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A
TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT, WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW, SO AM
LEAVING WX OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR NOW. WATCHING ONGOING ACTIVITY
OVER WEST TENNESSEE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED, BUT
THE HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION BREAKING UP BEFORE
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MAYBE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT AT
CSV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR WX WITH GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND A SHORTWAVE ARE
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LIKE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER...CONTRARY TO OUR HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH SMALL AMOUNT.
EXPECTING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH MOST EVERYONE
SEEING AROUND A TENTH. RAINS MAY VERY WELL HOLD TOGETHER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH THE METRO AREA...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE TO DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE MORE OF THE
DAY TIME HEATING.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT IN FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE AT MID AFTERNOON WITH COLD
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BELIEVE DIURNAL
HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WILL WORK ACROSS MY CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION
OF THUNDER NORTHWEST THIRD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS
TONIGHT DOWN IN THE 40S ALL AREAS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MOSTLY IN
THE 60S. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER
CUMBERLAND AREAS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP STEEP ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THOSE
AREAS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN AND ROTATE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO HAVE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST
BEING REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S MID AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S. WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1212 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014/
UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM AROUND PARIS TN TO TO NEAR
OXFORD MS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ALONG THE FRONT BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN
INTENSITY FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES HAVE DECREASED TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHING INTO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR EASTERN AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014/
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
IN THE SHORT-TERM...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 20Z CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS HAVE FORMED IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MLCAPES IN A
CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS OF THE PULSE
VARIETY AND MAINLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A REDUCTION IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
BY LATER TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH FALLING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MOVE AS FAR EAST AS WEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE...BUT
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
AS IT TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
TILT. AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE SURFACE FRONT AND OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
STILL IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI....THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED
MID LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME BACKED. CONSIDERING ALL OF THESE FACTORS...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER THESE AREAS FOR TOMORROW.
TIMING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...VERY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING AND THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BRIEFLY BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND TO THE
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FINALLY REBUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.AVIATION...
WILL BE KEEPING WITH -RA AS PREVAILING WX FOR MOST SITES THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND INT-
ERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE/LIFT STILL MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. MVFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING
FOR CLEARING/SKC LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014/
AREA OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER TROF WILL BE PUSHING
THRU OVERNIGHT. PRECIP IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IT WOULD BE SO EXPANDED HIGHER POPS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS ATTM AND
GEARED SHORT TERM FCST TOWARD ITS SOLN. NOT EXPECTING THE
MAGNITUDE OF ACCUMULATIONS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN REMAINS WELCOME FOR MOST PARTS. TEMPS LOOK GOOD SO NO UPDATES
THERE. DID MOVE UP BEGIN TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
ARE PICKING UP AND ARE NEAR OR ABOVE CRITERIA FOR MOST WATERS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 70 48 77 53 / 70 20 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 70 50 79 55 / 70 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 72 57 76 64 / 60 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG IT WILL HINDERS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL THE
LAST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST BACK TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO MATCH UP WITH LOWER FFG. CONVECTION
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE BACK TO COLD FRONT. MORE CHANGES THIS
AFTERNOON...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST CORNER. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS MIX
OR SCATTERED OUT THIS MORNING. ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR THIS MORNING GENERATES CONVECTION ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE STARTING AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460. THIS MORNINGS RNK SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PWATS HAD CLIMB TO
AROUND ONE INCH AND CAPES UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...LIFT AND ADD MOISTURE.
ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK
HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS AND HELD ON TO FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 650 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING WERE MADE TO SKY COVER...NAMELY THE NE
CWA WHERE LOW CIGS AND FOG WERE ADVECTING TOWARD LYH. THINK ONCE
SUN COMES UP THIS WILL HALT THE PROGRESSION TO ABOUT LYH THEN
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE STILL MAINLY SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF OUR CWA OVER ERN KY AND CENTRAL WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM TODAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
BEFORE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THIS WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON PRECIP THREAT...BUT AGAIN THE
OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO LESSEN PER LATEST RUNS. THE MODELS ALL
AGREE THAT THE NW CWA HAS THE BEST THREAT WITH LESS OF THE CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING AND KEEP IN THE
HIGH CHANCE IN THE GREENBRIER TO BATH/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...SOUTH TOWARD ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG WITH SMALL CHANCE TO
ISOLATED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THE
RECORDS TODAY MAY NOT BE AS ATTAINABLE EXCEPT PERHAPS BLACKSBURG
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS AT ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES. RUNNING WITH
HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S NC MTNS-PORTIONS OF FAR SW VA/SE
WV...TO MID 80S NEW RIVER VALLEY-ROANOKE-LYNCHBURG...AND AROUND 90
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK VORT...SO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 4 PM INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
NEXT STRONG WAVE WORKS IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODELS FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GETTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORKING NORTHEAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA/SE WV
BY MORNING...MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS A LYH-DAN LINE. GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS RUNNING ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY START AS EARLY AS PREDAWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS ROANOKE. THIS WILL RUN INTO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT STAY MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS...TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE OF VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
IMPRESSIVE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRIVING FEATURES
BEHIND OUR RAIN WILL BE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS EASTWARD OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT...THE EXCESSIVE
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND GREATLY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR ALOFT TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
THE CAPE VALUES.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LONGITUDINAL AND
PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...AND THUS ALLOW FOR A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE IMPACT OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL ADD TO THIS FACTOR...AND IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS IS
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THE END OF
THE EVENT IF RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TOP FOUR
INCHES. GIVEN THIS AND IN COLLABORATION WITH THE GSP OFFICE...WE ARE
POSTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A GOOD START WHAT MAY BE ADDITIONAL WATCHES BASED UPON
LATER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE TODAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR
EAST...THE PARENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO AND OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED COOL POOL OVER THE AREA...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALSO...NOTABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
LONG WAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
IN ANY CASE...COLD AIR ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROF COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME SOLAR HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WILL KEEP A DAILY THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED...AND LIMITED IN
DURATION IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST FINALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST IN OHIO VALLEY.
LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BLF-BCB-ROA-DAN...SO HAVE VCTS IN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LESS ACROSS AIRPORTS IN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AND EXITS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE WHETHER WE GET FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN AND IMPEDE IT. PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT ESPECAILLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MAKE IT BACK INTO THE BLF/LWB/BCB AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBYS.
EXPECT TO SEE BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUB VFR LIKELY IN HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EXITING THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING
TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UNDER VFR POSSIBLE
AT BLF/LWB. SHOULD CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER FRIDAY BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STAYS WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE STAY
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS FAR
NORTH AS ROANOKE. MODELS AGREE THAT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS 2+ SD ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND
STRONG SE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL
POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL
AWAIT ANOTHER RUN OF MODELS PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
BEFORE EXPANDING THE WATCH. AS FAR AS MAIN STEM RIVERS...ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER AT ALDERSON. WILL SEE HOW THE RAIN
PLAYS OUT FOR THIS. ATTM...WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE OF 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN...HIGHEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES
COULD OCCUR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT RECORD HIGHS MAY BE SAFE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
BLACKSBURG AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
SITE..........RECORDS/YEAR
ROANOKE.......93/1956
LYNCHBURG.....92/1956
DANVILLE......95/1956
BLACKSBURG....86/2000
BLUEFIELD.....86/1985
LEWISBURG.....84/1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
CLIMATE...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
108 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG IT WILL HINDERS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL THE
LAST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST BACK TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO MATCH UP WITH LOWER FFG. CONVECTION
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE BACK TO COLD FRONT. MORE CHANGES THIS
AFTERNOON...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST CORNER. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS MIX
OR SCATTERED OUT THIS MORNING. ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR THIS MORNING GENERATES CONVECTION ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE STARTING AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460. THIS MORNINGS RNK SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PWATS HAD CLIMB TO
AROUND ONE INCH AND CAPES UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...LIFT AND ADD MOISTURE.
ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK
HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS AND HELD ON TO FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 650 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING WERE MADE TO SKY COVER...NAMELY THE NE
CWA WHERE LOW CIGS AND FOG WERE ADVECTING TOWARD LYH. THINK ONCE
SUN COMES UP THIS WILL HALT THE PROGRESSION TO ABOUT LYH THEN
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE STILL MAINLY SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF OUR CWA OVER ERN KY AND CENTRAL WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM TODAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
BEFORE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THIS WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON PRECIP THREAT...BUT AGAIN THE
OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO LESSEN PER LATEST RUNS. THE MODELS ALL
AGREE THAT THE NW CWA HAS THE BEST THREAT WITH LESS OF THE CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING AND KEEP IN THE
HIGH CHANCE IN THE GREENBRIER TO BATH/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...SOUTH TOWARD ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG WITH SMALL CHANCE TO
ISOLATED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THE
RECORDS TODAY MAY NOT BE AS ATTAINABLE EXCEPT PERHAPS BLACKSBURG
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS AT ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES. RUNNING WITH
HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S NC MTNS-PORTIONS OF FAR SW VA/SE
WV...TO MID 80S NEW RIVER VALLEY-ROANOKE-LYNCHBURG...AND AROUND 90
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK VORT...SO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 4 PM INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
NEXT STRONG WAVE WORKS IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODELS FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GETTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORKING NORTHEAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA/SE WV
BY MORNING...MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS A LYH-DAN LINE. GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS RUNNING ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY START AS EARLY AS PREDAWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS ROANOKE. THIS WILL RUN INTO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT STAY MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS...TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE OF VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
IMPRESSIVE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRIVING FEATURES
BEHIND OUR RAIN WILL BE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS EASTWARD OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT...THE EXCESSIVE
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND GREATLY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR ALOFT TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
THE CAPE VALUES.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LONGITUDINAL AND
PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...AND THUS ALLOW FOR A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE IMPACT OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL ADD TO THIS FACTOR...AND IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS IS
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THE END OF
THE EVENT IF RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TOP FOUR
INCHES. GIVEN THIS AND IN COLLABORATION WITH THE GSP OFFICE...WE ARE
POSTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A GOOD START WHAT MAY BE ADDITIONAL WATCHES BASED UPON
LATER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE TODAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR
EAST...THE PARENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO AND OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED COOL POOL OVER THE AREA...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALSO...NOTABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
LONG WAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
IN ANY CASE...COLD AIR ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROF COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME SOLAR HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WILL KEEP A DAILY THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED...AND LIMITED IN
DURATION IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ANY FOG THIS MORNING IS GOING TO BE GONE BY 13-14Z. SOME STRATUS
ADVANCING TOWARD LYH MAY IMPACT THEM AT TIMES BETWEEN 12-13Z...BUT
SUNSHINE WILL SCATTER THIS DECK OUT.
SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE MTNS. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM BLF-BCB-ROA-LYH...SO HAVE VCTS IN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AND EXITS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE WHETHER WE GET FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN AND IMPEDE IT. ATTM...I AM
HESISTANT TO ADD FOG BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FORM AT
LWB/BCB LATE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE BLF/LWB/BCB
AREAS BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR VSBYS.
EXPECT TO SEE BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUB VFR LIKELY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EXITING THE PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UNDER VFR POSSIBLE
AT BLF/LWB. SHOULD CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER FRIDAY BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STAYS WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE STAY
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS FAR
NORTH AS ROANOKE. MODELS AGREE THAT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS 2+ SD ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND
STRONG SE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL
POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL
AWAIT ANOTHER RUN OF MODELS PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
BEFORE EXPANDING THE WATCH. AS FAR AS MAIN STEM RIVERS...ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER AT ALDERSON. WILL SEE HOW THE RAIN
PLAYS OUT FOR THIS. ATTM...WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE OF 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN...HIGHEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES
COULD OCCUR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT RECORD HIGHS MAY BE SAFE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
BLACKSBURG AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
SITE..........RECORDS/YEAR
ROANOKE.......93/1956
LYNCHBURG.....92/1956
DANVILLE......95/1956
BLACKSBURG....86/2000
BLUEFIELD.....86/1985
LEWISBURG.....84/1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
CLIMATE...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1018 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG IT WILL HINDERS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL THE
LAST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST CORNER. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS MIX
OR SCATTERED OUT THIS MORNING. ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR THIS MORNING GENERATES CONVECTION ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE STARTING AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460. THIS MORNINGS RNK SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PWATS HAD CLIMB TO
AROUND ONE INCH AND CAPES UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...LIFT AND ADD MOISTURE.
ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK
HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS AND HELD ON TO FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 650 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING WERE MADE TO SKY COVER...NAMELY THE NE
CWA WHERE LOW CIGS AND FOG WERE ADVECTING TOWARD LYH. THINK ONCE
SUN COMES UP THIS WILL HALT THE PROGRESSION TO ABOUT LYH THEN
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE STILL MAINLY SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF OUR CWA OVER ERN KY AND CENTRAL WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM TODAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
BEFORE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THIS WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON PRECIP THREAT...BUT AGAIN THE
OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO LESSEN PER LATEST RUNS. THE MODELS ALL
AGREE THAT THE NW CWA HAS THE BEST THREAT WITH LESS OF THE CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING AND KEEP IN THE
HIGH CHANCE IN THE GREENBRIER TO BATH/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...SOUTH TOWARD ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG WITH SMALL CHANCE TO
ISOLATED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THE
RECORDS TODAY MAY NOT BE AS ATTAINABLE EXCEPT PERHAPS BLACKSBURG
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS AT ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES. RUNNING WITH
HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S NC MTNS-PORTIONS OF FAR SW VA/SE
WV...TO MID 80S NEW RIVER VALLEY-ROANOKE-LYNCHBURG...AND AROUND 90
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK VORT...SO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 4 PM INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
NEXT STRONG WAVE WORKS IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODELS FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GETTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORKING NORTHEAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA/SE WV
BY MORNING...MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS A LYH-DAN LINE. GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS RUNNING ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY START AS EARLY AS PREDAWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS ROANOKE. THIS WILL RUN INTO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT STAY MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS...TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE OF VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
IMPRESSIVE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRIVING FEATURES
BEHIND OUR RAIN WILL BE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS EASTWARD OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT...THE EXCESSIVE
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND GREATLY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR ALOFT TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
THE CAPE VALUES.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LONGITUDINAL AND
PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...AND THUS ALLOW FOR A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE IMPACT OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL ADD TO THIS FACTOR...AND IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS IS
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THE END OF
THE EVENT IF RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TOP FOUR
INCHES. GIVEN THIS AND IN COLLABORATION WITH THE GSP OFFICE...WE ARE
POSTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A GOOD START WHAT MAY BE ADDITIONAL WATCHES BASED UPON
LATER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE TODAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR
EAST...THE PARENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO AND OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED COOL POOL OVER THE AREA...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALSO...NOTABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
LONG WAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
IN ANY CASE...COLD AIR ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROF COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME SOLAR HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WILL KEEP A DAILY THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED...AND LIMITED IN
DURATION IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ANY FOG THIS MORNING IS GOING TO BE GONE BY 13-14Z. SOME STRATUS
ADVANCING TOWARD LYH MAY IMPACT THEM AT TIMES BETWEEN 12-13Z...BUT
SUNSHINE WILL SCATTER THIS DECK OUT.
SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE MTNS. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM BLF-BCB-ROA-LYH...SO HAVE VCTS IN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AND EXITS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE WHETHER WE GET FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN AND IMPEDE IT. ATTM...I AM
HESISTANT TO ADD FOG BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FORM AT
LWB/BCB LATE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE BLF/LWB/BCB
AREAS BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR VSBYS.
EXPECT TO SEE BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUB VFR LIKELY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EXITING THE PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UNDER VFR POSSIBLE
AT BLF/LWB. SHOULD CLEAR OUT EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER FRIDAY BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STAYS WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE STAY
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS FAR
NORTH AS ROANOKE. MODELS AGREE THAT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS 2+ SD ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND
STRONG SE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL
POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL
AWAIT ANOTHER RUN OF MODELS PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
BEFORE EXPANDING THE WATCH. AS FAR AS MAIN STEM RIVERS...ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER AT ALDERSON. WILL SEE HOW THE RAIN
PLAYS OUT FOR THIS. ATTM...WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE OF 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN...HIGHEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES
COULD OCCUR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT RECORD HIGHS MAY BE SAFE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
BLACKSBURG AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
SITE..........RECORDS/YEAR
ROANOKE.......93/1956
LYNCHBURG.....92/1956
DANVILLE......95/1956
BLACKSBURG....86/2000
BLUEFIELD.....86/1985
LEWISBURG.....84/1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR VAZ014>017-022-032-033.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
CLIMATE...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
346 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
* LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
BRIEF GRAUPEL.
* EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRONOUNCED COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE FOR MAY WILL CONTINUE TO VERY
SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
ROTATE SHOWERS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK AND
LIKELY PROVIDE ALL AIRPORTS WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE
DRIER AIR ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH...THOUGH BRIEF SUB 2000 FT CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE...NAMELY AT RFD. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...COLD AIR WILL
STILL REMAIN IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS IS PRIMARILY TOO LOW OF A THREAT
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS AN EXTRA
LAKE COMPONENT GIVES A SLIGHT BOOST. WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS OCCURRING.
* HIGH IN AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY LIGHT SHOWERS AND THAT
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW THAT ANY GRAUPEL WILL
OCCUR.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND MEDIUM IN TIMING OF 10 KT OR GREATER.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. PRIMARILY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA.
MTF/BMD
&&
.MARINE...
206 AM CDT
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK IN MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE SO THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS LAND/LAKE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES MAY EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS LAKE BREEZES LIKELY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP. THE KEY IS
THAT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecst package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occuring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Thu May 15 2014
Unsettled weather will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through most of the 06Z TAF valid time. An upper level
low is expected to remain in the area through much of the period,
accompanied by abundant low cloud cover and scattered showers.
Initially VFR conditions are anticipated, but most guidance
suggest cigs will lower to MVFR later tonight. Then, cigs should
rise again to VFR Friday afternoon. The showers will be most
numerous during peak heating on Friday. Winds will be
light/variable into Friday afternoon, but will be trending toward
the northwest by late Friday and increasing in speed.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF INDIANA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DENSER CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY FRONT WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS N INDIANA AND FAR
S LWR MI PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH SUN SETTING...DIURNAL CU WAS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING. AS A RESULT...PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES APPEARS ON TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SE INTO
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR HAVE CAPTURED PRECIP
TRENDS WELL WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 2 BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
FIRST BAND...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM MOLINE SE TO CHAMPAIGN WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY ENE AND MAY DISSIPATE ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY BAND
BEHIND IT (FROM PEORIA TO EFFINGHAM IL). ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SW SECTIONS...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK
IN BY 6Z.
AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
GRIDS/ZONES/HEADLINE WITH OVERALL SPIRIT OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY
AT NOON WERE ONLY 37 DEGREES AT MICHIGAN CITY AND 36 BENTON HARBOR.
GIVEN THE CHILLY AIRMASS...DECOUPLING WINDS...AND SOME CLEARING...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN AREAS
TO AROUND 34 DEGREES...CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. EXPECT RECENT RAINFALL
AND SOME CLOUDS TO HELP TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ALSO
CONCERN FOR GROUND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT FOG
OUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES. OTHERWISE...CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS INCLUDING MONTICELLO.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SECONDARY JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF WRN LAKES TROUGH WILL
BE ON THE WAY OUT FRI NIGHT. WILL HOLD W/EVENING MENTION SE BUT
REMAINDER XPCD TO REMAIN DRY. HWVR W/MEAT OF COLD CORE UPR LOW STILL
OVERTOP THE AREA SAT ALG W/RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR BELIEVE ITS
PRUDENT TO EXPAND POPS A BIT SAT AFTN ESP IN LIGHT OF BNDRY LYR
MODIFICATION.
UPR TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY ACRS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MON WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE BLOWS UP AHD OF NEW SW DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY W/80S XPCD BY WED.
INITIAL POOR LL THETA-E RTN INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN RIDGE
DOES NOT FVR MID PD LOW CHC POPS AND WILL DROP THIS CYCLE ESP IN
CONTEXT OF WWD HOLDING UPR TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE GREAT BASIN
AND LEE SIDE SFC REFLECTION HOLDING FIRM VCNTY ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NEAR QUAD CITIES TO GRADUALLY
CYCLONICALLY PINWHEEL THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COINCIDENT/STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE SUBSTANTIAL LIGHT SHRA COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CIGS ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE PER BLEND OF
RAP/SREF/NAM SOUNDINGS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ004>007.
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
WITH THE SKIES NOW MORE EFFECTIVELY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
ADDITION OF TEMPOS TO IFR AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF TIME OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THIS AS JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CLOUD COVER AND FOG CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE EASTERN CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IN BETWEEN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME OF CLEAR SKIES AND
RADIATIVE COOLING TO RESULT IN AREAS OF VALLEY FOG...AS SEEN ALREADY
OCCURRING AT EKQ AND SME. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...OBS...AND
TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH
SEEM TO AGREE THAT AS THE LINE OUT TO THE WEST APPROACHES IT WILL BE
BREAKING UP AROUND 8 AM AS IT IS ABOUT TO ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
11 AM...THE LINE WILL BE REDEVELOPING AND WILL GET PRETTY ACTIVE. THE
AIR IS VERY UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD SYNOPTIC SITUATION TO SEE SOME
GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS AGAIN DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME VALLEY FOG. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SKIES SCATTERING OUT THIS
EVENING. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT...THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT FORM. IF THEY SCATTER OUT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE IN PLACES. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE FORECAST. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGING ALONG THE US
WEST COAST. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...BUT ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHERN MO ATTM. THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO A CENTRAL WV TO
WESTERN NC LINE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LINGERS
AND SOME OF THIS APPEARS TO BE UPSLOPE DRIVEN WITH AN UPSLOPE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME BREAKS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY AND SOME
CLEARING OVER WESTERN TN AND EASTERN AR. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE NEARING THE
MID MS VALLEY OVER MO AND NORTHERN AR. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER ACROSS EAST KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SOME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
FOR A TIME AND SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR. DESPITE THAT...COLD
ADVECTION WOULD FAVOR THE COLDEST MIN T TONIGHT ON THE RIDGES.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON TIMING...SOME SHOWERS MIGHT APPROACH THE REGION
LATE...BUT WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION AND CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...MID LEVELS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCES OF THUNDER. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
WBZ HEIGHTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 6KFT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGER ON THE
NAM...BUT THE LOW LEVELS MORE MOIST WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN
INVERTED VA LOOK SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. ATTM...WE PLAN TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE HWO FOR FRI.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO NOSE TOWARD THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION NORTH
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE DEGREE OF CLEARING IS IN QUESTION...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FROST. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE
OF CLEARING IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE
AND STAYED VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. IF CLEARING WOULD OCCUR...THE
COOP MOS GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT THAT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY. WINDS LOOK TO BE
NEAR CALM DURING THIS PERIOD SO SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. MODELS
ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY MAY AFFECT OUR FORECAST
AREA. WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER WILL THERE BE. AT THIS TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS POINTING TOWARDS SKIES THAT ARE AT LEAST NOT
CLEAR. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK PROBABLE IN
THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS AND GFS MOS FOR COOP LOCATIONS IS EVEN
INDICATING SOME LOWER 30S FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS A
BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP WITH TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MS VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
WITH THE SKIES NOW MORE EFFECTIVELY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
ADDITION OF TEMPOS TO IFR AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF TIME OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THIS AS JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
HELPED TO CLEAR EARLIER CLOUDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH THE INVERSION, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR
900MB, THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. SCATTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SHEARS NORTH ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA,
PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MAIN PV ANOMALY PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH ANYMORE THAN A HIGHER CHC POP.
SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER
SIDE DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
-3C BY 12Z. MAV/MET BLEND INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS
REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT INTO EASTERN
CANADA DURING SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND LIMITED BY A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE FEATURES SUITABLE TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND FOR MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT
STARTING THE DAY NEAR -30C AT 500 MB...BUT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN IF WE "ONLY"
SUSTAIN ABOUT -26C BY AFTERNOON...THAT IS STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF -15.9 AND NEAR THE -28.7C RECORD LOW 500 MB TEMPERATURE
AT 12Z ON THE 17TH. MID MAY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO FUEL SOME SHOWERY CONVECTION EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AVERAGING
IN THE MID 30S...BUT THIS IS ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS
IN MODEL DATA TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A CLEARING TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST SETUP FOR FROST IN OUR AREA AS THE CLEARING
TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NO MORE THAN A LIGHT SW WIND THAT LOOKS
VULNERABLE TO DECOUPLING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES MIN TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOLID ON THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING THAT MAKES GUIDANCE OFFERINGS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TARGET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY MODEL INDICATIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD SUGGEST THE
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST DECAYING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY FROM A WIND AND
WAVE PERSPECTIVE...BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DUE TO
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
//DISCUSSION...
STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF SCT CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
STILL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 5 HOUR WINDOW FROM
10Z-15Z. THEREAFTER...BKN VFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY UNDER UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.
SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL THEN PIVOT INTO SOUTHERN
CWA LATE IN THE FORECAST...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS AND
SCT -SHRAS.
FOR DTW...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SCATTER OUT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE AREA...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ANY CLEARING WILL
BE TEMPORARY AS CU/STRATO-CU FILL BACK INTO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
FOR DTW...
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH 09Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET AGAIN AFTER 15Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST...WITH 00Z-12Z H3 FALLS UP TO 180M...BTWN HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS OF SIGNIFICANCE WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NNEWD
THRU ERN WI TOWARD CENTRAL UPR MI AND THE SECOND IS DIGGING SEWD
THRU IOWA. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SHARPENING OF THE UPR TROF...WRN
EDGE OF THE DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR OVER FAR ERN UPR MI HAS
BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E AND AWAY FM THE CWA. IN FACT...STLT
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI UNDER
JET SURGE REGION OF SHRTWV NOW LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED...COLDER CLD TOPS OVER ECENTRAL WI
ON CYC SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED H7 LO AND TO THE E OF THE
OTHER SHRTWV IN IOWA. DESPITE A FAIRLY MOIST LYR BTWN H9-5 SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB...RA UNDER THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLD HAS BEEN LGT
AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY. THE PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS. SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPR
MI ROSE AS HI AS 15-20F. THE FEED OF THIS LLVL DRY AIR LIMITED THE
EXPANSION OF PCPN TO THE W DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POPS/PTYPE ASSOCIATED WITH
PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. LACK OF CLEAR PHASING BTWN THESE TWO
SEPARATE DISTURBANCES/AREAS OF DEEPER MSTR/IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE THE CHIEF LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP INTENSITY/
COVERAGE.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...GIVEN THE UPR DRY SLOTTING BTWN WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL
AS THE LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA/LATEST OBS
WV TRENDS TO THE S...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW
MODEL FOR POPS/QPF. THERE WL BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP AREA
INTO THIS EVNG OVER THE CENTRAL AND E WITH PASSAGE OF H7 LO OVER
NEWBERRY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF F85-7 FGEN JUST TO THE W UNDER AREA
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. BUT PASSAGE OF AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N BY 03Z WL DIMINISH ANY HEAVIER MIXED PCPN. UPSLOPE N
WIND WL BRING MORE NMRS SHOWERS TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIER TERRAIN...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL LIMIT AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LYR FORCING...THE MOST PERSISTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL UNDER AXIS OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/LOWER HGTS FORECAST BY ALL THE GUIDANCE.
PTYPE IS TRICKY. WHILE HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/LOWER WBZ HGT
FAVOR MAINLY SN...LIGHTER PCPN INTENSITY WL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...
SUSPECT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WL BE MAINLY RA THIS AFTN WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. BUT LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TURN PRIMARILY TO SN
AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE DISCONNECT BTWN DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR/
NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT ANY SN ACCUMS WL BE UNDER AN INCH AT
MOST PLACES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL. LINGERING CLD COVER THRU THE NGT SHOULD LIMIT
NOCTURNAL FALL OF TEMP DESPITE RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST ARND -5C AT 12Z FRI.
FRI...UPR MI IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER AXIS OF LOWER HGTS/MID LVL
MSTR/SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF UPR LO SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE N FM CENTRAL LK SUP INTO ONTARIO. BUT ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. SUSPECT THESE SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING FORCING
DESTABILIZATION THERE AWAY FM THE COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE LKS. WHILE ANY PCPN MAY BE MAINLY SN IN THE MRNG...THIS DAYTIME
HEATING THAT LIFTS TEMPS INTO THE 40S AWAY FM LK COOLING SHOULD CHG
ANY PCPN TO RA IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE PESKY 500MB LOW STRETCHED FROM N ONTARIO THROUGH UPPER MI AT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COOL -2 TO -6C. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND CENTRAL AND E AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FROM MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH THE LIGHT W FLOW AT THE SFC AS THE
TROUGH EXITS OVER E UPPER MI. EITHER WAY...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
APPROX 10F WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE SWINGS
IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT DOES COME ABOUT
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
EXPECT BETTER WAA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SFC LOW SET UP OVER THE W DAKOTAS AND E MT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE
ELONGATED SFC RIDGE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WILL SHIFT E INTO
QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING BACK TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
BEING SLOWLY INTRODUCED W TO E LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE A LOT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SKIMMING N MN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE S
DISTURBANCE OVER IA /AT LEAST OFF THE 12Z ECMWF/. THERE ARE ENOUGH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY TO JUST GO WITH A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND AT THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT CMX THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE STABILIZING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ENDS THE SNOW FOR THE AFTN. OTHER THAN A FEW
INTERVALS OF LOW CLOUDS AT THE ONSET...MVFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND VFR. DRY LLVL AIR WL DOMINATE IWD THIS FCST PERIOD AND THEY
WILL STAY VFR. SOME -SN WL CONTINUE AT SAW THIS MORNING. WITH A FVRBL
UPSLOPE N WIND... EXPECT MVFR WX TO PREDOMINATE AT THIS SITE BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRI AFTERNOON WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
431 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS MIN AND A LOW OVER NE
LAKE HURON. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH UP INTO S HUDSON BAY BY
SATURDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE W
GREAT LAKES AND TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO MONDAY AS IT LINKS UP WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING S OUT OF HUDSON BAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
EXPECT A LOW OVER THE W DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS MN
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD AND ONLY CURRENT
ADVISORY IS FOR MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AS OTHER
ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED ON THURSDAY EVENING. SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
TO RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF AND COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOWING DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND RAINFALL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES
EASTWARD. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...BETTER RAIN NOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2" PER HR DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...MD...AND VA. WITH TIME THIS MORNING...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA WITH
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS THE LATEST SUITE INDICATES TODAY/S RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MAIN REASONING
BEHIND THIS APPEARS TO BE WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/LWR OHIO VLY WHERE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN THIS
MORNING. WITH TODAY/S SUITE...MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT TWO
SEPARATE UPPER LOWS WILL FAIL TO CONSOLIDATE...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP UPPER WAVE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS FEATURE GOES NEGATIVE...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
DOWNSTREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
QUEBEC AS A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
WITH THE ABOVE SAID...OVERALL CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
RELATED PROBLEMS APPEARS TO BE WANING THIS MORNING BASED PURELY
ON THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT. THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE
STILL WON/T HAVE SOME PROBLEMS AS A GENERAL 1-2" OF RAIN STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LESSENING OF
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. WE/RE SILL EARLY IN THE GAME AND THINGS CAN CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY.
930 PM UPDATE...
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALMOST OF
SYR BGM AVP SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF FORECAST AND MODELS. THIS IS A
PRIMER WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON RIGHT BEHIND IT. WITH FLOOD WATCH
NOT IN EFFECT YET SHOULD STILL BE OKAY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DROPPED OFF. BIGGER PROBLEM ON ITS WAY WITH STEADIER RAIN MOVG N
TO MD NOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO LATE MORNING.
6 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. CELLS IN THE AREA MOVING MOSTLY NORTH SO SOME
TRAINING. UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA. WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
MOVES INTO YATES WHICH WAS HIT HARD 2 NIGHTS AGO.
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS MOIST FRONT
SLOWLY TRUDGES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. INITIAL VFR OR HIGH END MVFR
CIGS WILL DEGRADE TO FUEL ALT MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIG OR VIS
AS AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AFTER 12Z
/POSSIBLY SOONER KBGM-KELM/. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH THUNDER TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS...MAINLY JUST A SOLID RAIN. INITIAL SE FLOW WILL VEER SW TO
WNW WITH TIME WITH SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...SEE
TAFS FOR SPECIFICS ON TIMING. ALSO...KELM AND KRME MARGINAL LLWS EARLY
THIS MORNING DUE TO SOUTHERLY 40 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL VERSUS ESE OR
VARIABLE WIND AT SURFACE. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS END BUT
MVFR CIG SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS INTO EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT MORNING.
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO -SHRA.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
8 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES
OF HALF AN INCH AN HOUR DUE TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT A
FEW HEADWATER RIVER POINTS FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. MOST PRONE AREA
FOR FF IS THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-
047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-
044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-
055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOWING DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND RAINFALL
ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES
EASTWARD. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...BETTER RAIN NOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2" PER HR DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...MD...AND VA. WITH TIME THIS MORNING...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA WITH
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS THE LATEST SUITE INDICATES TODAY/S RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MAIN REASONING
BEHIND THIS APPEARS TO BE WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/LWR OHIO VLY WHERE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN THIS
MORNING. WITH TODAY/S SUITE...MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT TWO
SEPARATE UPPER LOWS WILL FAIL TO CONSOLIDATE...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP UPPER WAVE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS FEATURE GOES NEGATIVE...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
DOWNSTREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
QUEBEC AS A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
WITH THE ABOVE SAID...OVERALL CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
RELATED PROBLEMS APPEARS TO BE WANING THIS MORNING BASED PURELY
ON THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT. THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE
STILL WON/T HAVE SOME PROBLEMS AS A GENERAL 1-2" OF RAIN STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE LESSENING OF
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. WE/RE SILL EARLY IN THE GAME AND THINGS CAN CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY.
930 PM UPDATE...
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALMOST OF
SYR BGM AVP SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF FORECAST AND MODELS. THIS IS A
PRIMER WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON RIGHT BEHIND IT. WITH FLOOD WATCH
NOT IN EFFECT YET SHOULD STILL BE OKAY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DROPPED OFF. BIGGER PROBLEM ON ITS WAY WITH STEADIER RAIN MOVG N
TO MD NOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO LATE MORNING.
6 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. CELLS IN THE AREA MOVING MOSTLY NORTH SO SOME
TRAINING. UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA. WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
MOVES INTO YATES WHICH WAS HIT HARD 2 NIGHTS AGO.
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRT DISC DUE TO ONGOING WX AND EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
MOISTURE MVG INTO THE AREA HAD OF A COLD FNT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
IN THE AREA OVRNGT...WITH OPCNL IFR LATE AS HEAVY PCPN MVES IN.
ALSO...VSBYS WILL DROP AS PCPN MVES INTO THE AREA. ISLTD TRW PSBL
IN ELM THIS EVE...OTRW...MOST HEAVIER CONV WILL WAIT INTIL AFT 12Z
AS THE FNT APRCHS. SE WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME SWLY AS IT
APCHS...THEN WLY BHD THE FNT ON FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES
OF HALF AN INCH AN HOUR DUE TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT A
FEW HEADWATER RIVER POINTS FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. MOST PRONE AREA
FOR FF IS THE CENT SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OF NY WHERE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-
047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-
044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-
055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST SOME LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED
HOURLY TREND TO MATCH. NO CHANGES AT THIS LATE HOUR TO FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.
INCREASED POPS A BIT WITH CIGS LOWERING ACROSS THE WEST ALONG WITH
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN. 04-05Z RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR...SO FOLLOWED ITS LEAD INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST 08Z-14Z.
DESPITE SPC LEAVING OUT OUR AREA IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK...OPTED TO
MENTION ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MU CAPE 200 TO NEAR 500 J/KG ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FAR WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-01 UTC RAP/HRRR...AND REMAINING 18
AND INCOMING 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITES...DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE LOWER 40S UNDER INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT TO CHANCE MENTION FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST...ENTERING AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAINFALL TO EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINES CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
OTHER THAN TO UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT IS WELL ON
TRACK. BASED UPON THE 23 UTC RAP/HRRR...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST BY 06-07 UTC. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MAY CAUSE MUCH OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
A CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE MONDAK AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST 18Z
RAP/HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ENCROACHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. THUS
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST. STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO DRY OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
REMAINING OVER THE MONDAK AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...
AFTERNOON HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TONIGHT. WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL...WE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH
A FROST ADVISORY EXTENDING WEST A ROW OF COUNTIES. WEST OF THIS
AREA WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WITH MINIMAL RISK OF
FROST. ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CENTRAL AND
EASTERN
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
OVERALL TREND IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED TREND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 PATTERN SIMILAR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING AFTER MONDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN
CONTROL WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY...LOCATED NEAR A CROSBY/TIOGA
SOUTH TO DICKINSON LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MINOR
SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OVER THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE SECOND IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL INITIATE AND DEEPEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCING
WITH THIS WIND FLOW ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION LEADING TO MOSTLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BUFKIT KISN/KDIK SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS K-INDICES RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL
COME TOGETHER MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF SWEEPS THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER THE 12Z IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND REDEVELOPS MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ARE SEEN WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO DEVELOP RIDGING OUT AHEAD
OF A SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ARGUE FOR A
DRIER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS KEEPS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA PRIMARILY IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH LEADS TO
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE ALLBLEND IS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH A SLIGHT CHC
TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS...AND HAVE NOT
DEVIATED FROM THIS AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH AND LOWS
WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12-14Z FOR KDIK...AND PERHAPS FOR KISN THROUGH 09Z. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003-
011-019>021-034-042-045.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST
TENNESSEE AND TRACK EASTWARD, BUT PREVIOUS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
CELLS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO WILL
LEAVE THE TAF`S DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND DEW
POINT SPREADS SHRINKING AT CKV AND CSV, WILL INCLUDE FOG
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A
TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT, WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW, SO AM
LEAVING WX OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR NOW. WATCHING ONGOING ACTIVITY
OVER WEST TENNESSEE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED, BUT
THE HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION BREAKING UP BEFORE
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MAYBE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT AT
CSV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR WX WITH GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND A SHORTWAVE ARE
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LIKE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER...CONTRARY TO OUR HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH SMALL AMOUNT.
EXPECTING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH MOST EVERYONE
SEEING AROUND A TENTH. RAINS MAY VERY WELL HOLD TOGETHER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH THE METRO AREA...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE TO DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE MORE OF THE
DAY TIME HEATING.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT IN FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE AT MID AFTERNOON WITH COLD
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BELIEVE DIURNAL
HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WILL WORK ACROSS MY CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION
OF THUNDER NORTHWEST THIRD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS
TONIGHT DOWN IN THE 40S ALL AREAS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MOSTLY IN
THE 60S. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER
CUMBERLAND AREAS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP STEEP ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THOSE
AREAS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP DOWN AND ROTATE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO HAVE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST
BEING REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S MID AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S. WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1152 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE
PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
IN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATION
NOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADAR
REPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
IF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH IS
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.
WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOO
QUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME NWLY
BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS A VERY
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH RAIN ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE WEEKEND THEN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY AND
COOLER AIR PRESENT ALOFT. ISOLATED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND
WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND EVEN
LIFR AS A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN TO OUR W SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. LLWS
ALSO CONTINUED. CONDS WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY STATE OR WORSEN
THRU THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS THEN
EXPECTED BY EVE AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE AND CIGS GRADUALLY
RISE. A CFP WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5,000FT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A CDFNT
WORKS ITS WAY EWD THRU THE AREA AND A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IMPACTS THE
AREA. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CFP.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE CRITERIA THIS MRNG BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO THEIR EXTENT OR OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEW CASTLE DE, AND CECIL MD.
THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND THE 1.75 INCH RANGE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A POTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED LIFT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E ADVECTION, AND THERMAL RIDGES
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN OCCURS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO THE LATE EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES; HOWEVER, SOME SMALL STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS, AND URBAN RELATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF BURSTS OF RAIN
OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS CONCLUDED ON CHESAPEAKE BAY. THAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING QUICKLY AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS UP DELAWARE BAY AND HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF
(HYBRID?) OCCURRING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A FULL MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING EXPECTED TODAY,
SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER, DELAWARE BAY WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT.
CHESAPEAKE BAY APPEARS SAFE NOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE IF ANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF OUR RIP CURRENT SEASON. A STRONG SCA
ALREADY UP AND INCREASING SELY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE FULL MOON FROM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WILL
MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND, WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MODERATE, BUT IT WILL BE
A LOUSY DAY TO BE IN THE WATER ANYWAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPAIR
EFFORTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1124 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE
PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
IN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATION
NOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADAR
REPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
IF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH IS
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.
WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOO
QUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME NWLY
BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS A VERY
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH RAIN ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE WEEKEND THEN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY AND
COOLER AIR PRESENT ALOFT. ISOLATED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND
WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND EVEN
LIFR AS A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN TO OUR W SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. LLWS
ALSO CONTINUED. CONDS WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY STATE OR WORSEN
THRU THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS THEN
EXPECTED BY EVE AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE AND CIGS GRADUALLY
RISE. A CFP WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5,000FT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A CDFNT
WORKS ITS WAY EWD THRU THE AREA AND A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IMPACTS THE
AREA. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CFP.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE CRITERIA THIS MRNG BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO THEIR EXTENT OR OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEW CASTLE DE, AND CECIL MD.
THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND THE 1.75 INCH RANGE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A POTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED LIFT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E ADVECTION, AND THERMAL RIDGES
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN OCCURS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO THE LATE EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES; HOWEVER, SOME SMALL STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS, AND URBAN RELATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF BURSTS OF RAIN
OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDES HAVE REACHED MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS ON OUR SIDE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WILL ISSUE A QUICK ADVISORY. THIS EVENT IS
OCCURRING QUICKLY AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP DELAWARE BAY AND HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF (HYBRID?) OCCURRING DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A FULL MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING EXPECTED TODAY,
SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER, DELAWARE BAY, AND POSSIBLY CHESAPEAKE BAY, FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF ANY AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MEET MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF OUR RIP CURRENT SEASON. A STRONG SCA
ALREADY UP AND INCREASING SELY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE FULL MOON FROM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WILL
MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND, WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MODERATE, BUT IT WILL BE
A LOUSY DAY TO BE IN THE WATER ANYWAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPAIR
EFFORTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1053 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Upper level low immediately over ILX spawning some showery
activity for the day. Cool air infiltrating the region resulting
in abnormally cool temps and a mostly cloudy day. Best chance for
measurable rainfall is still to the northeast, and increasing
through the afternoon with a diurnal assist to the showers. No
changes to much of the forecast is warranted, though a small
adjustment of the high temps will be made to drop them a bit and
adjust the gradient. Cold aloft partnered with the vorticity of
the low center increasing chance for some cold air funnels over
the area. Since they are even more likely as the afternoon
progresses, will add a mention of the issue to the HWO. A couple
have been sighted in the NErn sector of the Low, but will remain
possible over most of the area, with the best chances in the
eastern half of the state.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
A low pressure area will slowly move east out of the area today,
but the surface trough will linger over the region through this
afternoon. So, clouds and scattered showers will likely continue
during the period. Will have MVFR cigs during this time with VCSH
at all sites. IFR cigs have been occurring in the north, so have a
Tempo group for IFR cigs at PIA and BMI for few hours this
morning. By evening, cigs should have risen to above MVFR
category. Shortly after midnight it looks like skies will scatter
out, which will lead to unseasonably cold temps tonight. Winds
will be westerly this morning and then begin to switch as the sfc
trough shifts south of I-74. Expecting northwest winds at
SPI/DEC/CMI most of the day, with northeast winds at PIA/BMI.
After 00z, winds should become light and variable. Wind speeds
during the daylight hours will be less than 10kts at all sites.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
646 AM CDT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN...OR JUST WET SNOW
IN A SOME PLACES...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
RELAY THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS...THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA...AND THE
NSSL MPING APP. NWS DUAL POLARIZATION DATA HAS SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER IN HEIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AS THIS MODERATE PRECIP HAS SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 WHICH HAD COOLED MORE LAST NIGHT...IT APPEARS BY THE SOUNDINGS
THESE AREAS WERE ABLE TO COOL AS THEY SATURATED ENOUGH TO BRING
SNOW TO THE GROUND IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES.
WE INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SNOW......ON MAY THE 16TH.......IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 10 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
MIX WITH WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL.
* EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONTINUING TO FURTHER RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING INTO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN...NAMELY PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME REPORTS OF THIS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE THE STEADY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH ON MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. LOW ON WHAT
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM ON VISIBILITY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 6SM DURING
PRECIPITATION.
* LOW ON WHETHER A BRIEF MIX WITH WET SNOW/GRAUPEL OCCURS.
* HIGH ON WINDS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
206 AM CDT
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK IN MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE SO THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS LAND/LAKE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES MAY EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS LAKE BREEZES LIKELY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP. THE KEY IS
THAT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
A low pressure area will slowly move east out of the area today,
but the surface trough will linger over the region through this
afternoon. So, clouds and scattered showers will likely continue
during the period. Will have MVFR cigs during this time with VCSH
at all sites. IFR cigs have been occurring in the north, so have a
Tempo group for IFR cigs at PIA and BMI for few hours this
morning. By evening, cigs should have risen to above MVFR
category. Shortly after midnight it looks like skies will scatter
out, which will lead to unseasonably cold temps tonight. Winds
will be westerly this morning and then begin to switch as the sfc
trough shifts south of I-74. Expecting northwest winds at
SPI/DEC/CMI most of the day, with northeast winds at PIA/BMI.
After 00z, winds should become light and variable. Wind speeds
during the daylight hours will be less than 10kts at all sites.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1054 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LOCATIONS IN OUR EASTERN CWA MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WHILE ELSEWHERE
LOWER TO MID 50S SEEM ON TARGET. THE RECORD COOL HIGH FOR DUBUQUE
IS IN JEOPARDY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS EVENING. WILL EVALUATE THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT BUT
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PATCHY FROST WORDING WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NW IL HAS NOW
TURNED BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
THE STRONG VORT MAX/UPPER LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IL
TAKING THE STRONG FORCING EAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT...THE
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING IN OUR IL COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WAS BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN
OUR NW COUNTIES. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG WITH INSTABILITY POPCORN SHOWERS DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THE POCKET OF -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
WAS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
DVN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/17. NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
AFT 00Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY 16...
DUBUQUE........52...1945
MOLINE.........46...1945
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NW IL HAS NOW
TURNED BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
THE STRONG VORT MAX/UPPER LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IL
TAKING THE STRONG FORCING EAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT...THE
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING IN OUR IL COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WAS BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN
OUR NW COUNTIES. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG WITH INSTABILITY POPCORN SHOWERS DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THE POCKET OF -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
WAS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
DVN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/17. NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
AFT 00Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/17. NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
AFT 00Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATED A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS, FIRST TO REMOVE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, AND SECONDLY, TO REFINE THE POPS/WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THEIR WAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH 250J/KG. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH ANY AREA OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALL SLIDE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL.
UPDATED FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLEARING OUT AHEAD OF A DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO CONTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE VCSH GOING IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE RENEWED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PREDAWN TIME
FRAME TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLEARING OUT AHEAD OF A DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO CONTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE VCSH GOING IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE RENEWED CLOUD COVER DURING THE PREDAWN TIME
FRAME TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
WITH THE SKIES NOW MORE EFFECTIVELY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH
ADDITION OF TEMPOS TO IFR AND PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF TIME OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THIS AS JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
859 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAK TEMPS AND SKY AND DEW POINTS TO AGREE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. RAIN SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.
PREV DISC... LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR RUN STILL INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVER INLAND
AREAS...READINGS WILL TOP OUT OVER 70 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTY OF
CLOUDY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO
MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WITH FOLIAGE IN FULL BLOOM...AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL WILL BE ABSORBED SOMEWHAT BEFORE RUNOFF
OCCURS INTO THE RIVERS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT POSSIBLE SHARP RIVER
RISES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS
EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP EACH
AFTN DUE TO THE COMBO OF SFC HTG/COOL UPPER LOW ALOFT AND PLENTY
OF RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR TO BE LIFTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS BUT LWRD SOME OF THE POPS TO PRESENT MORE SCT DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...
FOG...AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN HIGH SAT NIGHT BUT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR 2. WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
TFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
630 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS CONTINUE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WITH
JUST SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. THE
LATEST HRRR RUN HAS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION AROUND 20Z
OR SO...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREV DISC...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR RUN STILL INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVER INLAND
AREAS...READINGS WILL TOP OUT OVER 70 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTY OF
CLOUDY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO
MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WITH FOLIAGE IN FULL BLOOM...AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL WILL BE ABSORBED SOMEWHAT BEFORE RUNOFF
OCCURS INTO THE RIVERS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT POSSIBLE SHARP RIVER
RISES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS
EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP EACH
AFTN DUE TO THE COMBO OF SFC HTG/COOL UPPER LOW ALOFT AND PLENTY
OF RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR TO BE LIFTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS BUT LWRD SOME OF THE POPS TO PRESENT MORE SCT DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...
FOG...AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN HIGH SAT NIGHT BUT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR 2. WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FILTERED BACK INTO THE AREA BENEATH AN INVERSION
CENTERED NEAR 900MB. RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD
COVER UNTIL POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH REGARDING THE PREVAILING SKY CONDITION AT
THE METRO AREA AIRPORTS GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS, BUT SATELLITE TRENDS DO SUGGEST SOME
INTRUSION OF LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLEARING THIS AFTN WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS WIDESPREAD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST. CEILINGS
WILL THEN LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT, MAINLY CENTERED IN THE 3-6Z PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
HELPED TO CLEAR EARLIER CLOUDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH THE INVERSION, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR
900MB, THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. SCATTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SHEARS NORTH ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA,
PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MAIN PV ANOMALY PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH ANYMORE THAN A HIGHER CHC POP.
SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER
SIDE DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
-3C BY 12Z. MAV/MET BLEND INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT INTO EASTERN
CANADA DURING SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND LIMITED BY A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE FEATURES SUITABLE TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND FOR MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT
STARTING THE DAY NEAR -30C AT 500 MB...BUT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN IF WE "ONLY"
SUSTAIN ABOUT -26C BY AFTERNOON...THAT IS STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF -15.9 AND NEAR THE -28.7C RECORD LOW 500 MB TEMPERATURE
AT 12Z ON THE 17TH. MID MAY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO FUEL SOME SHOWERY CONVECTION EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AVERAGING
IN THE MID 30S...BUT THIS IS ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS
IN MODEL DATA TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A CLEARING TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST SETUP FOR FROST IN OUR AREA AS THE CLEARING
TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NO MORE THAN A LIGHT SW WIND THAT LOOKS
VULNERABLE TO DECOUPLING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES MIN TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOLID ON THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING THAT MAKES GUIDANCE OFFERINGS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TARGET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY MODEL INDICATIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD SUGGEST THE
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST DECAYING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY FROM A WIND AND
WAVE PERSPECTIVE...BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DUE TO
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
815 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATE TO EXPIRE FREEZE WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...DIMINISHING SHOWERS
EXPECTED WEST THIS MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TOWARD MOTT AND LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SINCE THEY HAD
THE TREND WELL COVERED.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
HEADLINE NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND THINK THE EXPIRATION AT 8 AM LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. WELL DEFINED EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KDIK-
KHEI. WELL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH
15Z...GRADUALLY ENDING CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE S/WV HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. WHILE HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE REMAIN AT 40F...EASTERN
BURLEIGH COUNTY (STERLING) WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HAS FALLEN TO
31F. THUS OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY PASSING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE STABILIZE BY
SUNDOWN.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER SET
OF FROST HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT H5 ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN MONTANA. MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS...NEAR 50 PERCENT...TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS IS LOWER BY
MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE STORM MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE
DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND MONDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEK SHOULD
NOT BE A WASH-OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS OF ECMWF...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION IS KDIK WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
HAVE MVFR VIS IN A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
REFLECTED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING
GROUP AT THIS POINT. THE SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TOWARD MOTT AND LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SINCE THEY HAD
THE TREND WELL COVERED.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
HEADLINE NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND THINK THE EXPIRATION AT 8 AM LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. WELL DEFINED EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KDIK-
KHEI. WELL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH
15Z...GRADUALLY ENDING CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE S/WV HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. WHILE HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE REMAIN AT 40F...EASTERN
BURLEIGH COUNTY (STERLING) WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HAS FALLEN TO
31F. THUS OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY PASSING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE STABILIZE BY
SUNDOWN.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER SET
OF FROST HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT H5 ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN MONTANA. MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS...NEAR 50 PERCENT...TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS IS LOWER BY
MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE STORM MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE
DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND MONDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEK SHOULD
NOT BE A WASH-OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS OF ECMWF...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION IS KDIK WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
HAVE MVFR VIS IN A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
REFLECTED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING
GROUP AT THIS POINT. THE SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MILDER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING OUT...AND BECOMING VERY LIGHT. RUC HAS THIS TREND WELL
HANDLED AND WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TRYING TO
BREAK UP OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE SC MTS...BUT THE UPSTREAM
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO PBZ CWA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REST OF THE
WEST VERY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...BUT THE SUN WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE IN ALL
BUT THE SC MTS TODAY. TEMPS DOING WELL...SO NO BIG TWEAKS THERE.
SEE HYDRO.
PREV...
A SLOW MOVING...WAVY COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. STRONG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE
UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ARE
SURGING INTO THE REGION ON A SSE LOW-MID LEVEL LEVEL JET OF
40-60KTS.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5"
RESULTS...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN FALLING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
AS WAVES OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RACE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RUC TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOWS IT CLEARING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
COULD HANG UP OVER SERN PA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF MY MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
COUNTIES.
SOME ABNORMALLY CHILLY AIR IS SLATED TO COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS OVER NW PA FALLING FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 40S POSSIBLE
BEFORE A SMALL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S TAKES PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THE DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PASSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS GROSS AS IT MAY
BE...850 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO IN THE WEST BY 12Z...SO I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME NORMAL COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE A WET SNOW
FLAKE OR TWO MIX IN. I DON`T SEE IT AS BEING ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO MENTION SO IT WILL NOT FIND ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
STAGE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL. DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SLIGHT REBOUND IN UPPER HEIGHTS TAKES
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MILDER AIR.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME
STRATOCU AND SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN MONDAY BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE AND THE LOW LIFTS
OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HEADLINES AS NWRN AREAS SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT THE
THINKING NOW IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO THWART FROST
FORMATION.
MILDER AIR SHOULD MAKE A RETURN STARTING ABOUT TUESDAY...BUT WE
WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WE THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES APPROACH AND WE BECOME VULNERABLE TO
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING OVER FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
TWEAKS MADE ONLY TO END TIMING OF THE RAIN AS IT HAS MOVED TO THE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR LNS. IT WILL DRAG IT/S FEET THERE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE
EVEN VFR AT MDT AND AOO...BUT BFD SANK BACK TO IFR UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW/STRATUS. ONLY JST MAY ALSO DO THAT FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTN...BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR CIGS
BY 18-19Z.
PREV...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN NOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THUS WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
OVERALL...A SE FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR IS KEEPING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOES MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
STILL BE SLOW TO MOVE REAL FAST. IT MAY BE 21Z UNTIL THINGS
IMPROVE AT LNS.
THUS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS VERY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA..WITH 4-5 BULLSEYE OVER ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THEFLOODING CONTINUES THERE...BUT NEW FLOODING WHICH HAS NOT
ALREADY BEEN WARNED-FOR IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SO...KILLED THE FF
WATCH FOR THE AREA. THE RAIN IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND ONLY
DRAGGING IT/S FEET IN THE FAR ERN COS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME EAST SHOULD BE A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
FLOODING HAS COMMENCED ON THE TRIBS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND
SHIRLEYSBURG. FOUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS GOING AT THIS POINT...AND
PERHAPS ONLY THE OTHER POINT TO EXCEED FLOOD WOULD BE THE SLOWER-
RESPONDING HOGESTOWN GAGE. THE BEECH CREEK AND RUSSELL GAGES ARE
MAINLY CONTROLLED BY UPSTREAM DAMS...AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD. BUT THESE ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. NO LARGE-RIVER POINTS SHOULD GET TO FLOOD...MANY TO
CAUTION STAGES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS H5
HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED RETREATING HOWEVER THIS HASNT BEEN
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE YET AS TEMPERATURES IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS
/INCLUDING SKY HARBOR/ HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED PAST THE 100 DEGREE
MARK. WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEATING TO GO...102-107 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE
BET ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY ERODING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND AND IT WONT BE
UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST THAT THERES A REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS /OUT OF THE 100S ANYWAY/. 12Z BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE STILL
POINTING TOWARD LOWER 100S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND UPPER 90S/AROUND
100 ON MONDAY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN
AND COULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT OTHER
THAN THAT FLY IN THE OINTMENT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE A LOCK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REAL COOLDOWN /IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT/ WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON DIVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY MEANDERS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH
SIMILAR VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARVED NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM /NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY/ WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AND SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE OF THE FIRE-WEATHER
VARIETY. OF COURSE THERES ALWAYS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUSTY SPOTS AS WELL AND THAT MAY NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER AND CAN PIN DOWN
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
BUT COOLER AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED...MEANING 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SATURDAY...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SCT TO BKN IN NATURE...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING GNLY REMAINING AOA
20-25KFT. AFTN W-SW BREEZES TO PERSIST PAST SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT FOR
KIPL AND KBLH...WHILE BACKING TO THE SE FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER DRY PACIFIC STORM WILL BE DEEPENING INTO THE
REGION...PERSISTING WINDY CONDITIONS AND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
POCKETS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE WINDS SCALE BACK
AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOL. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEARLY STALLING OUT WHILE
KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZINESS ACROSS THE REGION.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ABATE WITH THE DECREASING WINDS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AT
OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CITY MAY 16TH MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
---- -------- -------- --------
PHOENIX 106 IN 1997 108 IN 1970 107 IN 1970
YUMA 109 IN 1956 109 IN 1970 113 IN 2008
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
104 PM MST FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS H5
HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED RETREATING HOWEVER THIS HASNT BEEN
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE YET AS TEMPERATURES IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS
/INCLUDING SKY HARBOR/ HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED PAST THE 100 DEGREE
MARK. WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEATING TO GO...102-107 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE
BET ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY ERODING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND AND IT WONT BE
UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST THAT THERES A REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS /OUT OF THE 100S ANYWAY/. 12Z BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE STILL
POINTING TOWARD LOWER 100S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND UPPER 90S/AROUND
100 ON MONDAY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN
AND COULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT OTHER
THAN THAT FLY IN THE OINTMENT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE A LOCK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REAL COOLDOWN /IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT/ WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON DIVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY MEANDERS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH
SIMILAR VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARVED NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM /NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY/ WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AND SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE OF THE FIRE-WEATHER
VARIETY. OF COURSE THERES ALWAYS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUSTY SPOTS AS WELL AND THAT MAY NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER AND CAN PIN DOWN
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
BUT COOLER AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED...MEANING 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SATURDAY...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING FROM
TIME-TO-TIME TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
BREEZES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CITY MAY 16TH MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
---- -------- -------- --------
PHOENIX 106 IN 1997 108 IN 1970 107 IN 1970
YUMA 109 IN 1956 109 IN 1970 113 IN 2008
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXPECTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE
REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX...EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
CAZ030-032-033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM BRUSHES NORTHERN CA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AS ANY RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:12 PM PDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE PAC NW COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FELL BETWEEN 1
AND 2 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RESULTED IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND 17 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST...TO THE 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE WRF
AND HRRR INDICATE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTLINE...BY NO
MEANS A SOLID STRATUS FIELD. LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE COASTLINE
AS WELL AS A FEW AREAS INLAND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IF ANY LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...EXPECT AN EARLY DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LOW ON LOW CLOUD TIMING AND
FORMATION. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURE
READINGS FROM THIS MORNING AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
ALONG THE COAST...TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE THAT WE COULD
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW THAT IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE
FORECAST.
850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER TUESDAY INTO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:21 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING ONSHORE GRADIENT TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. SEABREEZE 10-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:12 PM PDT FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODERATE WINDS WILL RESULT IN STEEP FRESH
SWELL.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF BEST POPS TO THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAP AND WRF INDICATE BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
NAM DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 00-02Z. EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT...BUT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES SHOULD ENSURE
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS.LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
...A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A BIT STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS BETTER...AND SO DOES
THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SO SHOULD HAVE A BIT STRONGER AND A
FEW MORE STORMS TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. PRIMARY WINDOW
LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 20Z-02Z. PRIMARY STORM THREATS LOOK TO BE WIND
GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 50 MPH...BRIEF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING. NOT A LOT
OF CAPE TO WORK WITH SO CONVECTION LIKELY ONLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT A FEW SPOTS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRAGGLERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A BIT OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LW
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW SAT
MORNING...WITH COLORADO STILL UNDER NE FLOW ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHEN
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE
INDICATING RIGHT AROUND 18Z FOR THE FRONT TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD
AND START INFLUENCING THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE THROUGH THE AFTN FOR THE E MTS AND PLAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA SUN
MORNING...WITH SW FLOW STRENGTHENING SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH MON AND
TUE AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW. DRY
AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE 80S NEARING 90F...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. SUN
WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT BOTH MON AND
TUE LOOK LIKE A SURE THING FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS LOCATE THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR WED...THEN ELONGATE THE TROUGH ON THU. THIS
TREND HAS AN ODD LOOK TO IT...AND CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON
WHAT WILL HAPPEN MIDWEEK. EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION EDGES BACK INTO THE CWA ON WED THEN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD ON THU. THIS IS WHAT THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE CAME
UP WITH...AND AT THIS TIME HAVE NO NEED TO ALTER. THE TREND FROM
WED ONWARD IS A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WHICH MAKES SENSE IF PCPN
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS GUSTING FROM 25-35 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
553 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH PERSISTENT TRAIN OF PCPN PUSHING
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING WELL
INTO THE SE US SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING BATCH OF HEAVIER PCPN TREKKING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF PUSHING INTO THE NYC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRRR BEEN CAPTURING THE PCPN
TODAY...AND BACKS UP THE TRACK OF THIS PCPN...AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN
PCPN IN THE AREA THEN THROUGH 00Z...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY WITH THE
PCPN...BUT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AND DECENT
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO TSTM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE HEAVIER PCPN PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTUAL BREAK POSSIBLY AROUND 00Z
AS THE FIRST BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN PUSHES NORTH...AND A SECOND AREA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NJ
AND NY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS BACKED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PUSHING TO THE EAST. THINKING IS WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH WITH THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...MORE ALIGNING OVER WESTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...GENERALLY
OCCURRING AFTER 01Z. THE LINE OF HEAVIER PCPN PROGRESSES EAST THEN
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...HITTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT AFTER
06Z. DESPITE CONTINUAL STRONGER SHEAR..INSTABILITY VALUES REALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...SO THINKING ISO TSTM THREAT DIMINISHES BY
06Z. AREAS OF THE NYC METRO DRY OUT BY 07Z...WITH AREAS OF EASTERN
CT/LI SEEING PCPN THROUGH 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH PSBL THROUGH 00Z...AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 06Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WINDS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CT/LI BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WELL TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING SPLITTING CENTRAL NY COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TRIGGER A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND THUS WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO SEEP INTO THE AREA...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS
PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN...WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...WITH UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME STACKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS CT.
ANOTHER SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SO AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
JUST AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOTE SOME MINOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME FOG. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE SEEN BUT EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT. LOCALLY AT
TIMES...GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS CONTINUES WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT 2KFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION TO
PINPOINT THUNDERSTORMS SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR TIME BEING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO LIFR THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND
DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO SW-W FLOW.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE
TO SW-W FLOW.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB CAMS AT THE SHORES AROUND LONG ISLAND INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG
HAS REFORMED ON THE WATERS. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN BEHIND IT. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSY FOR
ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERN MARINE ZONES MAY IMPROVE
BEFORE 10Z AND ADVSY COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25 TO 30
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO
8 FT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...WINDS TAPER
OFF...SO STILL EXPECTING WESTERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY
SAT MORNING...WITH EASTERN WATERS BY LATER SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY. ALL WATERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER NJ AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES BASIN AVG QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA MINUS SUFFOLK COUNTY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE FULL MOON
THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF
LONG ISLAND AND THR SHORES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THUS...THE
HIGHER TIDES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
010>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-069>075-
176>179.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH PERSISTENT TRAIN OF PCPN PUSHING
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING WELL
INTO THE SE US SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING BATCH OF HEAVIER PCPN TREKKING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF PUSHING INTO THE NYC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRRR BEEN CAPTURING THE PCPN
TODAY...AND BACKS UP THE TRACK OF THIS PCPN...AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN
PCPN IN THE AREA THEN THROUGH 00Z...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY WITH THE
PCPN...BUT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AND DECENT
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO TSTM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE HEAVIER PCPN PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTUAL BREAK POSSIBLY AROUND 00Z
AS THE FIRST BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN PUSHES NORTH...AND A SECOND AREA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NJ
AND NY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS BACKED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PUSHING TO THE EAST. THINKING IS WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH WITH THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...MORE ALIGNING OVER WESTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...GENERALLY
OCCURRING AFTER 01Z. THE LINE OF HEAVIER PCPN PROGRESSES EAST THEN
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...HITTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT AFTER
06Z. DESPITE CONTINUAL STRONGER SHEAR..INSTABILITY VALUES REALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...SO THINKING ISO TSTM THREAT DIMINISHES BY
06Z. AREAS OF THE NYC METRO DRY OUT BY 07Z...WITH AREAS OF EASTERN
CT/LI SEEING PCPN THROUGH 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH PSBL THROUGH 00Z...AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 06Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WINDS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CT/LI BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WELL TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING SPLITTING CENTRAL NY COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TRIGGER A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND THUS WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO SEEP INTO THE AREA...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS
PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN...WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...WITH UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME STACKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS CT.
ANOTHER SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SO AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
JUST AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOTE SOME MINOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME FOG. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE SEEN BUT EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT. LOCALLY AT
TIMES...GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS CONTINUES WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT 2KFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION TO
PINPOINT THUNDERSTORMS SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR TIME BEING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO LIFR THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND
DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO SW-W FLOW.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE
TO SW-W FLOW.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WIND DIRECTION COULD DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING FROM SE TO
SW-W FLOW.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO 8 FT. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...WINDS TAPER OFF...SO
STILL EXPECTING WESTERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH EASTERN WATERS BY LATER SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY. ALL WATERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER NJ AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES BASIN AVG QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA MINUS SUFFOLK COUNTY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE FULL MOON
THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF
LONG ISLAND AND THR SHORES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THUS...THE
HIGHER TIDES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
010>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-069>075-
176>179.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JP/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH PERSISTENT TRAIN OF PCPN PUSHING
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING WELL
INTO THE SE US SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS SEEN VIA THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING BATCH OF HEAVIER PCPN TREKKING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF PUSHING INTO THE NYC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z. HRRR BEEN CAPTURING THE PCPN
TODAY...AND BACKS UP THE TRACK OF THIS PCPN...AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN
PCPN IN THE AREA THEN THROUGH 00Z...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE DAY WITH THE
PCPN...BUT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AND DECENT
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO TSTM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE HEAVIER PCPN PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTUAL BREAK POSSIBLY AROUND 00Z
AS THE FIRST BULK OF HEAVIER PCPN PUSHES NORTH...AND A SECOND AREA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NJ
AND NY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS BACKED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PUSHING TO THE EAST. THINKING IS WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH WITH THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...MORE ALIGNING OVER WESTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...GENERALLY
OCCURRING AFTER 01Z. THE LINE OF HEAVIER PCPN PROGRESSES EAST THEN
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...HITTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT AFTER
06Z. DESPITE CONTINUAL STRONGER SHEAR..INSTABILITY VALUES REALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...SO THINKING ISO TSTM THREAT DIMINISHES BY
06Z. AREAS OF THE NYC METRO DRY OUT BY 07Z...WITH AREAS OF EASTERN
CT/LI SEEING PCPN THROUGH 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH PSBL THROUGH 00Z...AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 06Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WINDS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CT/LI BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WELL TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING OVER EASTERN AREAS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING SPLITTING CENTRAL NY COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TRIGGER A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NY AND THUS WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO SEEP INTO THE AREA...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS
PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST SAT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN...WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...WITH UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME STACKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS CT.
ANOTHER SURFACE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SO AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
JUST AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST...PASSING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DO NOTE SOME MINOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. IFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME FOG. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE SEEN BUT EXPECTING A
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SE AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. LOCALLY
AT TIMES...GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. LLWS
CONTINUES WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT AT 2KFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO LIFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF +RA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING ON THE OCEAN TO 6 TO 8 FT. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...WINDS TAPER OFF...SO
STILL EXPECTING WESTERN WATERS TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH EASTERN WATERS BY LATER SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING ON THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY. ALL WATERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER NJ AND LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES BASIN AVG QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA MINUS SUFFOLK COUNTY.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE FULL MOON
THAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF
LONG ISLAND AND SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE HIGHER
TIDES COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
010>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-069>075-
176>179.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JP/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE
PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
IN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATION
NOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADAR
REPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
IF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH IS
ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.
WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOO
QUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME NWLY
BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL OCCUR DURG THE ERLY EVE HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS A VERY
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH RAIN ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE WEEKEND THEN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY AND
COOLER AIR PRESENT ALOFT. ISOLATED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND
WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS START MVFR TO IFR WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS
EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTION.
WINDS: FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO THE PHILLY
METRO AIRPORTS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE GOING TO TRY TO STALL
THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS. KRDG AND KABE
WILL REMAIN WEST. KMIV AND KACY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. LLWS
FROM KPHL AIRPORTS EAST WILL BE ENDING AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS AND VSBYS FOR AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IFR EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS AND MVFR WESTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. KPHL LOCAL
AIRPORTS PREVAILING MVFR WITH SOME IFR MAINLY DUE TO VSBY IN
HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS EARLY.
DURING THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIG WITH RAIN
ENDING AND A GENERAL WEST WIND AT AROUND 10 KTS. LATEST
IMPROVEMENT AT KACY AND KMIV AND OTHER EASTERN AIRPORTS.
OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS AS WE LOSE THE VFR CIG. AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG FCST. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
ON SATURDAY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. WEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 10 KNOTS. IF A CUMULUS VFR CIG DOES FORM, MOST LIKELY
AIRPORTS ARE KABE AND KRDG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5,000FT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A CDFNT
WORKS ITS WAY EWD THRU THE AREA AND A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IMPACTS THE
AREA. SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE CFP.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE CRITERIA THIS MRNG BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO THEIR EXTENT OR OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEW CASTLE DE, AND CECIL MD.
THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND THE 1.75 INCH RANGE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A POTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED LIFT
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E ADVECTION, AND THERMAL RIDGES
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN OCCURS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY LASTING
INTO THE LATE EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES; HOWEVER, SOME SMALL STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS, AND URBAN RELATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF BURSTS OF RAIN
OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS CONCLUDED ON CHESAPEAKE BAY. THAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING QUICKLY AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS UP DELAWARE BAY AND HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF
(HYBRID?) OCCURRING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A FULL MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING EXPECTED TODAY,
SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER, DELAWARE BAY WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT.
CHESAPEAKE BAY APPEARS SAFE NOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE IF ANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF OUR RIP CURRENT SEASON. A STRONG SCA
ALREADY UP AND INCREASING SELY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE FULL MOON FROM THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WILL
MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND, WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MODERATE, BUT IT WILL BE
A LOUSY DAY TO BE IN THE WATER ANYWAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPAIR
EFFORTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
119 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
646 AM CDT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN...OR JUST WET SNOW
IN SOME PLACES...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
RELAY THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS...THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA...AND THE
NSSL MPING APP. NWS DUAL POLARIZATION DATA HAS SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER IN HEIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS
THIS MODERATE PRECIP HAS SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHICH HAD COOLED MORE LAST NIGHT...IT APPEARS BY MODEL AND AMDAR
SOUNDINGS THAT THESE AREAS WERE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH AS THEY
SATURATED TO BRING SNOW TO THE GROUND IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES.
WE INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SNOW......ON MAY THE 16TH.......IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 10 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
* RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
* LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY/BRIEF FOG TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS STILL ONGOING. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND DID EXTEND THE DURATION OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THEM ANTICIPATED TO SCATTER
OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO LINGER BEYOND THE 20Z
TIME FRAME...BUT WITH AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND STILL EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. THEN EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THESE SCATTER...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POSSIBILITY. DID LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH LATER FORECASTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF DURATION.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN TRENDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FOG TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
119 PM CDT
A STACKED...SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR WEAK LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE SATURDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY. GENERALLY
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MORE ORGANIZED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Upper level low immediately over ILX spawning some showery
activity for the day. Cool air infiltrating the region resulting
in abnormally cool temps and a mostly cloudy day. Best chance for
measurable rainfall is still to the northeast, and increasing
through the afternoon with a diurnal assist to the showers. No
changes to much of the forecast is warranted, though a small
adjustment of the high temps will be made to drop them a bit and
adjust the gradient. Cold aloft partnered with the vorticity of
the low center increasing chance for some cold air funnels over
the area. Since they are even more likely as the afternoon
progresses, will add a mention of the issue to the HWO. A couple
have been sighted in the NErn sector of the Low, but will remain
possible over most of the area, with the best chances in the
eastern half of the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1249 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Problematic forecast for today. Upper low in place and plenty of
cooler air and shower activity. Upper low should be moving out to
the east in the next 8 to 10 hours... but any slower and the llvl
moisture will get trapped in the boundary layer when the sun
drops. Forecast very dependent on the speed of the low out of the
region and confidence is very low. Overnight clearing will lend
itself to fog potential in the morning and have trended the
forecast in that direction. Largely MVFR for the next 6 hours,
with spotty IFR for PIA and possibly BMI. Improving as the evening
progresses.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
646 AM CDT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN...OR JUST WET SNOW
IN SOME PLACES...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
RELAY THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS...THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA...AND THE
NSSL MPING APP. NWS DUAL POLARIZATION DATA HAS SHOWN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER IN HEIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS
THIS MODERATE PRECIP HAS SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHICH HAD COOLED MORE LAST NIGHT...IT APPEARS BY MODEL AND AMDAR
SOUNDINGS THAT THESE AREAS WERE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH AS THEY
SATURATED TO BRING SNOW TO THE GROUND IN NUMEROUS COMMUNITIES.
WE INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SNOW......ON MAY THE 16TH.......IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 10 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
UPCOMING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK... ABATING IN TIME TO SALVAGE A PLEASANT
SPRING DAY SUNDAY. THAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ACCENTUATED BY
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WSR-88D CONTINUING TO DEPICT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
PINWHEELING AROUND MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW ITSELF GRADUALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
WET SNOW OR SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN SPOTS THIS MORNING GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT PER FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES. LOW DEW POINT AIR OVER NE IL WILL AID IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS AS COLUMN SATURATES TO THE WET BULB AS PRECIP
PINWHEELS NORTHWARD. EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO WANE SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPS STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50... LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA... AND NOT FAR
OFF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DAY (WHICH ARE 49 AT RFD AND
44 AT ORD).
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LIGHT SHOWERS ALBEIT REDUCED IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING... AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH TIME... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETREATS NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
OPENINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. ANY SUCH OPENINGS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DESPITE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOW TO
KICK IN BUT FINALLY DOES TOWARD EVENING. WITH THAT EXPECT SUNDAY TO
BE A DRY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AFTERNOON COOLING LAKESIDE
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK MAINLY ALONG THE IL SHORELINE AS THE
SSE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY... AND WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY.
* RAIN THROUGH MID DAY.
* NORTHEAST WINDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONTINUING TO FURTHER RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING INTO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN...NAMELY PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME REPORTS OF THIS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE THE STEADY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH ON MVFR CIGS AND RAIN
* HIGH ON WINDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
206 AM CDT
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK IN MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE SO THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS LAND/LAKE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES MAY EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS LAKE BREEZES LIKELY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP. THE KEY IS
THAT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
LAKE...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1053 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
Upper level low immediately over ILX spawning some showery
activity for the day. Cool air infiltrating the region resulting
in abnormally cool temps and a mostly cloudy day. Best chance for
measurable rainfall is still to the northeast, and increasing
through the afternoon with a diurnal assist to the showers. No
changes to much of the forecast is warranted, though a small
adjustment of the high temps will be made to drop them a bit and
adjust the gradient. Cold aloft partnered with the vorticity of
the low center increasing chance for some cold air funnels over
the area. Since they are even more likely as the afternoon
progresses, will add a mention of the issue to the HWO. A couple
have been sighted in the NErn sector of the Low, but will remain
possible over most of the area, with the best chances in the
eastern half of the state.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
A low pressure area will slowly move east out of the area today,
but the surface trough will linger over the region through this
afternoon. So, clouds and scattered showers will likely continue
during the period. Will have MVFR cigs during this time with VCSH
at all sites. IFR cigs have been occurring in the north, so have a
Tempo group for IFR cigs at PIA and BMI for few hours this
morning. By evening, cigs should have risen to above MVFR
category. Shortly after midnight it looks like skies will scatter
out, which will lead to unseasonably cold temps tonight. Winds
will be westerly this morning and then begin to switch as the sfc
trough shifts south of I-74. Expecting northwest winds at
SPI/DEC/CMI most of the day, with northeast winds at PIA/BMI.
After 00z, winds should become light and variable. Wind speeds
during the daylight hours will be less than 10kts at all sites.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri May 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night
00Z short range models remain in fair agreement next few days and
will use a blend for this forecast package through this weekend.
Strong 544 dm 500 mb low near Duluth and 546 dm 500 mb low even
further south near the Quad Cities will bring another cool day
with a fair amount of low clouds along with scattered showers.
Radar mosaic loops shows brunt of showers have shifted ne of
central IL early this morning into IN, northern IL and se IA.
Light rain showers still occurring at Danville, Paris and Pontiac.
At surface a weak 1015 mb elongated low pressure was over central
IL into west central IN. Cool temps in the low to mid 40s across
central and southeast IL with upper 40s near the Wabash River.
Strong upper level low and trof to shift eastward to the IL/IN
border by 21Z this afternoon. Models are in agreement of more
scattered showers developing across central IL and HRRR even has a
few hundreds of CAPE over eastern IL east of the IL river which
would suggest isolated thunderstorms. But NAM model shows very
little CAPE and SPC keeps general risk of thunder east of IL over
IN and previous forecast did not have thunder mention, so kept on
that track. But areas near the IN border may have best chance of
seeing isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. These showers should
diminish during the evening as clouds decrease and winds become light.
850 mb temps are down to zero to -2C today so a bit cooler highs
today than yesterday in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s by
Lawrenceville. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s central IL and
upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL. Could be patchy frost later
tonight and early Sat morning over parts of central IL especially
nw of IL river where clouds decrease sooner.
Large/deep upper level trof starts to pull away from IL over the
Great Lakes region Saturday but still close enough to develop some
cumulus clouds along with isolated showers especially areas from
I-74 ne. Highs in the lower 60s with 850 mb temps starting to
modify and more sunshine possible than today. Lows Sat night in
the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings in eastern IL
with patchy frost mainly east of central IL later Sat night. 1025
mb high pressure is over the Ohio river valley Sunday morning and
brings a nice day to IL with more sunshine and milder highs in the
upper 60s and winds fairly light.
Models continue to build upper level ridge into the MS river
valley during Monday with increasing southerly flow and warming
temps in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Strong upper level ridge near IL Tue and Wed brings warmer temps
in the upper 70s Tue and low to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Upper level
disturbances ridging over top of ridge to mainly affect IA/WI and
northern IL early next week but will continue isolated chances of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wed especially from
I-74 north. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms over
central IL overnight wed night through Thu night as frontal
boundary shifts southward across IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LOCATIONS IN OUR EASTERN CWA MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WHILE ELSEWHERE
LOWER TO MID 50S SEEM ON TARGET. THE RECORD COOL HIGH FOR DUBUQUE
IS IN JEOPARDY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS EVENING. WILL EVALUATE THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT BUT
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PATCHY FROST WORDING WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NW IL HAS NOW
TURNED BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
THE STRONG VORT MAX/UPPER LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IL
TAKING THE STRONG FORCING EAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT...THE
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING IN OUR IL COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WAS BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN
OUR NW COUNTIES. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG WITH INSTABILITY POPCORN SHOWERS DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. THE POCKET OF -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES THAT
WAS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
DVN CWA THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM SPOTTERS OR CO-OP OBSERVERS IN
FREEPORT...LANARK...AND SHANNON ILLINOIS.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA DOES HAVE A SLIGHT LOWERING IN CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT IN THIS AREA. THIS SLIGHT LOWERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG FORCING ALOFT IS ALLOWING A MIX TO DEVELOP. RAP AND RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE MIX TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A NEW DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED THE
FORCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME
HEAVIER. THIS NEW ROUND OF FORCING SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS CREATING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND DEVELOP NEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY THAT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KMLI WITH AN INVERTED
TROF INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE
LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THEN BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE LOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY WHILE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE CURRENT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DO A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEW DIURNAL SHOWERS. VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT
MEAN THAT ANY RESPECTABLY STRONG SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY IN THE 40S
BUT ANY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUN WILL POP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
BEFORE CLOUDS FORM.
SUNSET AND WEAKENING FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. ANY
CLEARING COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET...POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH DOES
WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...THEN
WARMER NEXT WEEK AND TURNING ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT-SAT NGT...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS EASTERN CWA ON SAT FOR FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT MOST SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN SUB CLOUD
LAYER WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION AND WITH NO COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL
SHOWN ATTIM FEEL MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU FLATTENING WITH TIME.
HIGHS AROUND 60F TO LOWER 60S. SAT NGT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND MOSTLY AROUND 40F TO LOWER 40S... BUT
IF WINDS GO CALM OR IF THEY BACK MORE TO SOUTHEAST WITH FETCH OFF
DEPARTING HIGH COULD SEE MORE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
SUN-SUN NGT...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND BACKING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES... THUS WARMER
DUE TO MODERATION OF AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 70F SOUTHWEST
CWA. KEPT DRY FCST SUN NGT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND
MAIN FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET STAYING TO OUR WEST.
MON-MON NGT...UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST BY MON NGT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND MOIST TRANSPORT NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. IF WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED THEN PCPN MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS AS FETCH WOULD BRING DRIER AIR FROM BENEATH
OHIO VLY HIGH. ANY PCPN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS ON MON THEN COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MON NGT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. HIGHS
MON CHALLENGING WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST AND
POSSIBLY SOME PCPN. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F OR IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 70S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION.
TUE-THU...THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN/NEAR CWA AND SEVERAL
RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH BROAD RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/S TO IMPACT
OUR CWA. UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES JET WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETAILS OF LOCATION
OF BOUNDARY(IES) WITH IMPACTS ON DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THUS... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE WILL SET UP AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMER AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SEE 1-2 DAYS OF HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY 16...
DUBUQUE........52...1945
MOLINE.........46...1945
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 17...
MOLINE.........35 IN 2011
CEDAR RAPIDS...32 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........32 IN 2009
BURLINGTON.....36 IN 2011
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
CLIMATE...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS
AROUND THE AREA AND REGION OF SMALL HAIL AS EXPECTED EARLIER. LOOKS
LIKE A TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE
LAST DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD START TO SEE A DECREASE IN RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. UPDATED FORECAST TO FRESHEN UP THE WEATHER
GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATED A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS, FIRST TO REMOVE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, AND SECONDLY, TO REFINE THE POPS/WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THEIR WAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH 250J/KG. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH ANY AREA OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALL SLIDE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL.
UPDATED FORECAST HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE CLEAR PATCH IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS HAPPENED AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME TO GIVE THE AREA A BOUT OF DENSE FOG PER WEB CAMS AND OBS. IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR UP IN THE FAR WEST AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
CLOUDS...LEADING THE SHOWER CHANCES...MOVE INTO THE AREA. TO THE EAST
THE VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE CLEARING TAKES HOLD IN THIS PREDAWN TIME FRAME
DRIVING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD DEWPOINTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM EDT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER
AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BENEATH AN ENCROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW. THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW A
SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SWIRL OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
TENNESSEE...MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...A CLOUD FREE
PATCH IS PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CLEARING OUT THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING TO GENERATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S
WITHIN THE WESTERN CLEAR ZONE WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER
LOW ROLLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND
CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE SOUTHERN NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND STARTS TO FILL. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST SOME WEAKER POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE...WITH HEIGHT RISES TO FOLLOW. WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FOLLOWED THE WX SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE...ONCE THE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE INDUCED
THUNDER...TODAY AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ANY
OF THE LOW TOPPED STORMS BECOME STRONG. CLEARING SKIES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED IT WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE BREADTH AND COVERAGE OF THE FROST...LIMITING IT TO THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AND GO
WITH AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN. FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
MAY BE SPARED THE FROST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL
DAY WILL BE HAD ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE ENDURE THIS MID SPRING COLD SNAP.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH THE ADJUSTED
CONSALL GUIDANCE FAVORED THEREAFTER. MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS
THROUGH THIS FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GULF COAST RIDGE...WITH SOME SORT OF
BOUNDARY SETTING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS COOLER CANADIAN
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS...HOWEVER...PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONG RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DO
FINALLY COME INTO A LITTLE BIT OF AGREEMENT FROM 0Z FRIDAY
ONWARD...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A WET PATTERN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST ONCE IT DOES FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...WENT WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO LOW MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. THE
WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST...AS OUR
VALLEYS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
FROST TO FORM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION..AS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FROST WOULD BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN OUR DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS. LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S...WITH A NUMBER OF READINGS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO 34 OR 35 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR DEEPEST
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS SUNSET. SKIES WILL GO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW STAYS TO OUR NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WE COULD BE IN LINE
FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CU
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1206 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE 2...CHASING TEMPS A BIT AS THEY ARE WARMING ABOVE OUR
PREDICTED HIGHS. HAVE INCREASED OUR HIGH TEMPS AND ADJUST CLOUD
COVE AND WINDS. ISSUED AN UPDATED LAKE FORECAST ALSO.
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAK TEMPS AND SKY AND DEW POINTS TO AGREE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. RAIN SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.
PREV DISC... LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR RUN STILL INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVER INLAND
AREAS...READINGS WILL TOP OUT OVER 70 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTY OF
CLOUDY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO
MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WITH FOLIAGE IN FULL BLOOM...AND RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL WILL BE ABSORBED SOMEWHAT BEFORE RUNOFF
OCCURS INTO THE RIVERS. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT POSSIBLE SHARP RIVER
RISES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM
SUNDAY THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS
EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP EACH
AFTN DUE TO THE COMBO OF SFC HTG/COOL UPPER LOW ALOFT AND PLENTY
OF RESIDUAL LO LVL MSTR TO BE LIFTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS BUT LWRD SOME OF THE POPS TO PRESENT MORE SCT DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...
FOG...AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN HIGH SAT NIGHT BUT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRIT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR 2. WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
TFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
513 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHEASTWARD STREAKING VORT LOBE IS MANAGING TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY
COHERENT SHIELD OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL PVA AHEAD
OF IT. THIS COUPLED WITH DRASTICALLY DECREASING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND QUICKLY INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
MANAGING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LIFT
AS WELL. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THE VORT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THUNDER CARRIED IN
BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA PER INSTABILITY FROM
THE RAP SOUNDINGS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WL DRAG A REINFORCING CDFNT OVR THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...WHICH WL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHWR
DVLPMNT UNDR A VERY COLD MID LVL TEMP REGIME. CHC POPS FOR SCT
SHWR EXPECTATIONS IN A MINIMALLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH THE COLD HIGH TEMP FORECAST VIA NAM GUIDANCE.
BROAD UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVR THE ERN CONUS TO START THE
NEW WEEK...ALTHOUGH COLD CORE TROF AXIS IS MDL SHIFTED NEWD. POP
CHCS WERE THUS DIMINISHED FOR SUN AND MONDAY AND TEMPS PROGNOSIS
ALLOWED TO BGN MODERATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD WL FEATURE WARMING TEMPS AS BROAD RIDGE DVLPS
OVR THE CNTRL CONUS. MID WEEK PCPN PROBABILITIES WL BE DEPENDANT
ON SHRTWVS MOVING ACRS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE AND OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. GENL CHC NMBRS WL SUFFICE UNTIL TIMING AND BNDRY
PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE BTR DEFINED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WL CONT THRU THE AFTN FOR PORTS N-E OF PIT...OTRW VFR
STRATOCU WL CONT THRU SAT. A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WL BRING INCRG
SHWR CHCS LT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. BRIEF VSBY RSTRNS AND ISOLD
TSTMS ARE PSBL...BUT COVG IS EXPD TO BE TOO LMTD FOR MENTION IN
TAFS FOR NOW.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES OVR THE WKEND. MD
WK LOW PRES WL BRING ADDNL RSTRN CHCS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TOWARDS JACKSON. LIGHT RAIN MIGHT EVEN BE IN
PLAY EARLY TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...TEND TO FAVOR THE
HI-RES ARW WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO EXIT
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE DETROIT OFFICE...AND WE AGREE THAT CHANCES
FOR FROST DECREASE AS ONE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THEIR AREA DUE TO
RESIDUAL RAIN/MOIST LOW LEVELS/WET SOIL CONDITIONS THERE. THANKS FOR
COORDINATION DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP TO COMMENCE SUNDAY WITH NO
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
TRANSITION TO THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A DAY AND A HALF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SFC LOW MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE CWA. MUCAPES ARE PROGD TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG LATE TUESDAY. IT/S EARLY YET...BUT SHEAR
VALUES PROGD AROUND 50KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TUESDAY.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES SOUTH
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. AFTER MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE SATURDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS
OCCURRING NEAR I-94 THIS EVENING IS VERY LIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. A INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INLAND OF US-131. THESE SHOWERS
WOULD BE BRIEF AND FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WOULD STAY VFR EVEN IN THE SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT AND THE RED CEDAR RIVER AT EAST LANSING IN
INGHAM COUNTY CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SYCAMORE CREEK SHOULD
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING WHILE THE RED CEDAR RIVER SHOULD
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER SITES SHOULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE... THOUGH A COUPLE MAY COME CLOSE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TOWARDS JACKSON. LIGHT RAIN MIGHT EVEN BE IN
PLAY EARLY TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...TEND TO FAVOR THE
HI-RES ARW WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO EXIT
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE DETROIT OFFICE...AND WE AGREE THAT CHANCES
FOR FROST DECREASE AS ONE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THEIR AREA DUE TO
RESIDUAL RAIN/MOIST LOW LEVELS/WET SOIL CONDITIONS THERE. THANKS FOR
COORDINATION DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP TO COMMENCE SUNDAY WITH NO
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
TRANSITION TO THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A DAY AND A HALF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SFC LOW MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE CWA. MUCAPES ARE PROGD TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG LATE TUESDAY. IT/S EARLY YET...BUT SHEAR
VALUES PROGD AROUND 50KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TUESDAY.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES SOUTH
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. AFTER MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR I-94 AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT AND THE RED CEDAR RIVER AT EAST LANSING IN
INGHAM COUNTY CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SYCAMORE CREEK SHOULD
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING WHILE THE RED CEDAR RIVER SHOULD
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER SITES SHOULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE... THOUGH A COUPLE MAY COME CLOSE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...93
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
142 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON MIXING AND AS HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SYSTEM SKIRTING TO OUR SOUTH.
SOME MOISTURE IS BEING SHED OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MI
WHICH MAY END UP PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MI AND THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IGNITES A
DECENT CU FIELD AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PROB30
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A GENERAL W/NW DIRECTION...REMAINING WESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WELL. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLOUDS
FIELD AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EVEN WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SFC
MOISTURE...CLOUD FIELD SHOULD PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
HELPED TO CLEAR EARLIER CLOUDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH THE INVERSION, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR
900MB, THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. SCATTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SHEARS NORTH ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA,
PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MAIN PV ANOMALY PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH ANYMORE THAN A HIGHER CHC POP.
SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER
SIDE DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
-3C BY 12Z. MAV/MET BLEND INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT INTO EASTERN
CANADA DURING SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SE MICHIGAN. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE...MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND LIMITED BY A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE FEATURES SUITABLE TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND FOR MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT
STARTING THE DAY NEAR -30C AT 500 MB...BUT LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN IF WE "ONLY"
SUSTAIN ABOUT -26C BY AFTERNOON...THAT IS STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF -15.9 AND NEAR THE -28.7C RECORD LOW 500 MB TEMPERATURE
AT 12Z ON THE 17TH. MID MAY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO FUEL SOME SHOWERY CONVECTION EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT AVERAGING
IN THE MID 30S...BUT THIS IS ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS
IN MODEL DATA TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A CLEARING TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD MAY
TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST SETUP FOR FROST IN OUR AREA AS THE CLEARING
TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NO MORE THAN A LIGHT SW WIND THAT LOOKS
VULNERABLE TO DECOUPLING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES MIN TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DOMINANT IN THE PATTERN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOLID ON THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WARMING THAT MAKES GUIDANCE OFFERINGS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TARGET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY MODEL INDICATIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD SUGGEST THE
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY AFFECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST DECAYING
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY FROM A WIND AND
WAVE PERSPECTIVE...BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DUE TO
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK INTO
THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MIDDAY UPDATE TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
UPDATE TO EXPIRE FREEZE WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...DIMINISHING SHOWERS
EXPECTED WEST THIS MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NEAR WATFORD
CITY TOWARD MOTT AND LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SINCE THEY HAD
THE TREND WELL COVERED.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
HEADLINE NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND THINK THE EXPIRATION AT 8 AM LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. WELL DEFINED EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KDIK-
KHEI. WELL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH
15Z...GRADUALLY ENDING CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE S/WV HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. WHILE HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE REMAIN AT 40F...EASTERN
BURLEIGH COUNTY (STERLING) WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HAS FALLEN TO
31F. THUS OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING IN TACT FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY PASSING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE STABILIZE BY
SUNDOWN.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER SET
OF FROST HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT H5 ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN MONTANA. MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS...NEAR 50 PERCENT...TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS IS LOWER BY
MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE STORM MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE
DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND MONDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WEEK SHOULD
NOT BE A WASH-OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS OF ECMWF...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER AT KISN/KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR REGION USHERING IN COOLER
DRIER AIR. THE SLOW MOVING DEEP TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST OVER
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER TO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING OUT...AND BECOMING VERY LIGHT. RUC HAS THIS TREND WELL
HANDLED AND WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TRYING TO
BREAK UP OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE SC MTS...BUT THE UPSTREAM
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO PBZ CWA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REST OF THE
WEST VERY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...BUT THE SUN WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE IN ALL
BUT THE SC MTS TODAY. TEMPS DOING WELL...SO NO BIG TWEAKS THERE.
SEE HYDRO.
PREV...
A SLOW MOVING...WAVY COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. STRONG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE
UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ARE
SURGING INTO THE REGION ON A SSE LOW-MID LEVEL LEVEL JET OF
40-60KTS.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5"
RESULTS...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN FALLING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
AS WAVES OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RACE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RUC TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOWS IT CLEARING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
COULD HANG UP OVER SERN PA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF MY MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
COUNTIES.
SOME ABNORMALLY CHILLY AIR IS SLATED TO COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS OVER NW PA FALLING FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 40S POSSIBLE
BEFORE A SMALL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S TAKES PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THE DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PASSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS GROSS AS IT MAY
BE...850 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO IN THE WEST BY 12Z...SO I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME NORMAL COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE A WET SNOW
FLAKE OR TWO MIX IN. I DON`T SEE IT AS BEING ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO MENTION SO IT WILL NOT FIND ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
STAGE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL. DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH
STILL CYCLONIC ALOFT. SHOULD BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND FROST LIKELY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS
CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. SUSPECT FROST ADVISORIES COULD COME INTO
PLAY SHOULD THIS PATTERN AND FORECAST HOLD UP. TOO EARLY AT THIS
TIME.
GENERALLY COOL AND DRY SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MODEST MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WED-THU TIME FRAME AS A BIG RIDGE WITH CLOSE 5880 M HIGH
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN US...SUSPECT A HEAT WAVE/HEAT EPISODE WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL US. WE WILL BE ON FRINGE OF RIDGE AND WARMER
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PATTERN TO IMPLY CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU NOTHING BIG AND NOTHING EXCITING AT
THIS TIME.
OF INTEREST IS THE SURGE OF HIGH CAPE IN THE GEFS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION ON WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS HIGH
CAPE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A EARLY WARM SEASON SEVERE TYPE.
THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE WEAK AS IS CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH
THE LAKES.
IT SHOULD COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY THU-SAT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
STATES WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA
STRENGTHENS AND RETROGRADES.
SO LONG RANGE WILL START OUT ON COOL SIDE SOME FROST POSSIBLE
SUN-TUE IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS. INCREASE CHANCE SHOWERS WED
INTO EARLY THURSDAY THEN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER AS WE ENTER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
TWEAKS MADE ONLY TO END TIMING OF THE RAIN AS IT HAS MOVED TO THE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR LNS. IT WILL DRAG IT/S FEET THERE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE
EVEN VFR AT MDT AND AOO...BUT BFD SANK BACK TO IFR UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW/STRATUS. ONLY JST MAY ALSO DO THAT FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTN...BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR CIGS
BY 18-19Z.
PREV...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN NOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THUS WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
OVERALL...A SE FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR IS KEEPING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOES MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
STILL BE SLOW TO MOVE REAL FAST. IT MAY BE 21Z UNTIL THINGS
IMPROVE AT LNS.
THUS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS VERY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA..WITH 4-5 BULLSEYE OVER ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THE FLOODING CONTINUES THERE...BUT NEW FLOODING WHICH HAS NOT
ALREADY BEEN WARNED-FOR IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SO...KILLED THE FF
WATCH FOR THE AREA. THE RAIN IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND ONLY
DRAGGING IT/S FEET IN THE FAR ERN COS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME EAST SHOULD BE A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
FLOODING HAS COMMENCED ON THE TRIBS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND
SHIRLEYSBURG. FOUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS GOING AT THIS POINT...AND
PERHAPS ONLY THE OTHER POINT TO EXCEED FLOOD WOULD BE THE SLOWER-
RESPONDING HOGESTOWN GAGE. THE BEECH CREEK AND RUSSELL GAGES ARE
MAINLY CONTROLLED BY UPSTREAM DAMS...AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD. BUT THESE ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. NO LARGE-RIVER POINTS SHOULD GET TO FLOOD...MANY TO
CAUTION STAGES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DANGELO/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO