Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
647 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN A STRONG NWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS
TSTMS OVER FAR NERN CO AT THIS TIME...AND WILL APPEARS TO BE
PUSHING BOUNDARY THROUGH AKRON AND STERLING AT THIS TIME. THE
LATEST RUC APPEARS TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AFTER 02Z. NOT SURE HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE BUT MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTBY AND UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE
03-08Z TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME...THAT TRANSLATES FM 10 TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IF
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS TO
CHC CATEGORY WITH ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
HAS HELPED SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING TO DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A JET MAX MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TO CREATE A
SLIGHT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY AND LIFT TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE JET
DYNAMICS...COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT BANDING IN THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...PERHAPS 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE NO ACCUMULATION
EXCEPT A TRACE OR SO ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CHEYENNE AND
PALMER RIDGES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FROM
GUIDANCE AS THINKING WOULD BE FOR MORE CLOUD COVER FROM THE JET
THAN IS BEING DEPICTED. LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER
SPEED MAX MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
NO BIG CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE TRENDING FROM MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE
THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THAT MAY BE THE BEST AFTERNOON FOR ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE UNDER THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS MAY WARM TO NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY THE AIRMASS A LITTLE
BIT AND COULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THROUGH NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
COUNTRY IS GOING TO BECOME BLOCKED BY A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN. COLORADO WILL BE LEFT UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AT LOW LEVELS...MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. IF THIS MOISTURE IS ABLE TO GET BACK INTO COLORADO...IT
WILL BE ABLE TO FUEL STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT COULD END
UP BEING AN INTERESTING WEEK IF THE BLOCKING PATTERN INDEED SETS
ITSELF UP. FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL JUST FEATURE
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2014
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA IN THE 02-03Z PERIOD.
COULD SEE ILS CIGS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IN
THE 03Z-08Z PERIOD. HENCE THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS. THERE WILL
BE LINGERING INSTBY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING
OVERHEAD BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TSTMS AT THIS TIME JUST SHOWERS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2014
MINOR UPDATE TO BRING IN CURRENT OBS AND RAISE POPS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SANGRES. -PJC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2014
...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP BENEATH THE UPPER TROF ALOFT..AND SNOW HAS
BEEN REALLY COMING DOWN IN WEB CAMS AT WOLF CREEK. VIS IS DOWN TO
1/4 MILE AS OF THIS LAST HOUR. ROADWAYS STILL LOOK CLEAR...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE COOLING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN TO STICK.
NAM12...GFS...AND RAP ALL KEEP HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH MAJORITY WILL LIKELY FALL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FOR THAT REASON...UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AN EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THESE RANGES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO FAIRLY HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. CDOT WEBCAM AT ANTONITO HAS SOME SNOW
FALLING...THOUGH MOST IS MELTING ON PAVEMENT SURFACES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE. HAVE PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER AREAS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. WARNING AREAS COULD PICK UP A
TOTAL OF 8 TO 16 INCHES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF
1 TO 4 INCHES...BUT WARM GROUND MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO LESSER
AMOUNTS.
THE SANGRES AND WETS COULD ALSO PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO HEADLINES WILL
EXPIRE AT 6 AM. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE TONIGHT...AND CURRENT FREEZE WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH
LINGER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...BUT HIGHER MOUNTAINS
WILL STILL SEE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A SPOTTY 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PARK OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK...KEEPING COLORADO UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS A COOLER
ONE...SO THE WARM UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER
UNTIL THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST IS
FORECAST TO FINALLY FLATTEN AND SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT. THIS
TRANSLATES TO ANOTHER THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT...THEN HIGH TEMPS ON WED IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPS GRADUALLY
WARM THU THROUGH SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS...AND
IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. EXTENDED MODELS ALSO HINT AT MORE
OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WHEN IT COMES TO CONVECTION...WITH AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MTS EACH AFTN AND
EARLY EVE THROUGH SAT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST LATE SAT...PRODUCING INCREASING SW
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE DESERT SW. LOOK FOR DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SUN AND MON...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S
FOR THE E PLAINS...AND IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2014
KALS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR LESS. GUSTY EAST WINDS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z TUESDAY.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS FROM THE NORTH ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH AIR
FIELDS LATE TUESDAY MORNING. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ083>089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ060-064-
067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ066-068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PJC
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION THU WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WINDY AND WARM FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH SLOW INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE H95-H8
LAYER...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EXPANSION OF STRATUS FROM THE SW
ACROSS MUCH OF CT/RI AND INTERIOR MA. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL LIKELY
SNAKE ITS WAY INTO COASTAL MA AND SRN NH WITH TIME AS WELL.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. DO NOTE THAT WITH WINDS NOW
MORE SE THAN E...SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE TO YIELD PATCHY DZ AND FOG THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MANY LOCATIONS WAKE UP
DRY. SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN TO THE S AND W DUE
TO LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT...REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
A DOMINANT ELY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ABOVE H9. LATEST MOS IS A BIT
TOO MOIST WITH SFC DWPTS SO ADJUSTED USING LATEST RAP OFFERINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THU...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO
THE 60S...HENCE HUMID CONDITIONS. LOTS LOW CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW
AND BUFKIT RH PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE IF FAIRLY SHALLOW...MAINLY
BELOW 5 KFT. FAIRLY DRY ALOFT GIVEN PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. NOT MUCH SB INSTABILITY WITH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
JUST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. THAT ALSO SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN. SO MAINLY A DRY DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
POP-UP SHOWER. PWATS ARE HIGH SO BRIEF DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE. DID
REMOVE MENTION OF A TSTM GIVEN THE LIMIT SB INSTABILITY AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF MORE SUN DOES MATERIALIZE OR SUFFICIENT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM CLOUDY AREAS ADJACENT TO SUNNY AREAS AN
ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE.
WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THU NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY SHALLOW SUPPORTING
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY
TOWARD FRI MORNING AS SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MILD WITH DEW PTS IN THE U50S TO L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HEAVY RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG
* REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL
OVERVIEW...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SLOW MOVING TROF LIFTING NE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG THIS WEEKEND. MAIN
WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE FRI INTO
SAT AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROF TRANSPORTS
HIGH PWAT PLUME NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENG. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW
NORMAL AS CLOSED LOW AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER NEW
ENG.
FRIDAY...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. EXPECT LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE
INTERIOR BUT SOME SUNSHINE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS RIDGING TO THE
EAST MAINTAINS SOME DRIER AIR. MAX TEMPS MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...MILDEST E. LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHERE MAIN FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM...BUT
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE CT VALLEY WEST AS HIGH PWAT PLUME MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...
MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION WITH ANOMALOUS
PWAT PLUME. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE STRONG OMEGA AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WHICH COULD TRAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IS +3
TO +4 SD AND PWAT ANOMALY IS +2 TO +3 SD WHICH IS A GOOD SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE 06-12Z IN THE
WEST AND 12-18Z SAT IN THE EAST. STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE MOVING TO
THE EAST DURING SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD.
IT APPEARS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE LONGEST DURATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND PWAT ANOMALY
IS FOCUSED. LESSER RAIN FURTHER E AS BEST FORCING WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SNE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH E MA INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENG. LOCALLY 3+ INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
BERKSHIRES WHERE SOME UPSLOPE IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL TO THE WEST BUT IS MOVING EWD WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING INTO NEW ENG. MODELS INDICATE
WAVE DEVELOPING S OF NEW ENG WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTH
INTO SNE. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MON AND TUE
AS CLOSED LOW AND COLD POOL SETTLES OVER NEW ENG. TT WELL INTO THE
50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS. THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON WED BUT
RESIDUAL COLD POOL WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS IN NEW ENG.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS CT AND THE SOUTH COAST WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND N THEN NE ACROSS MUCH OF SNE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
ALREADY AT BDL/PVD AT 23Z AND SHOULD REACH ORH-BOS-MHT-FMH BY
06Z. LOW PROB OF IFR ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE. ACK MAY BE BE SPARED THE LOWER CIGS.
THU...MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY. ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. REMOVED TSTM FROM THE FORECAST AS PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW.
THU NIGHT...MVFR LIKELY WITH LOW RISK OF IFR INLAND ESPECIALLY
HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING. WIND SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTH SHOULD OCCUR 21Z-
00Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR...ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW ENG BUT MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE EAST. SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING AS SHOWERS AND SCT
TSTMS MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN
06-12Z IN THE WEST AND 12-18Z IN THE EAST. AREAS OF LLWS DEVELOPING
AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...QUIET/TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH DRY
WEATHER/GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIMIT VSBY TO 1-3 MILES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RI WATERS.
THU...MORNING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY 1-3 MILES...THEN
IMPROVING BY MIDDAY. SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. S
WINDS 15-20 KT STRONGEST WIND NEAR SHORE.
THU NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TOWARD FRI MORNING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRI...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT LIKELY
WITH BUILDING SEAS. WINDS DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO W/NW. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.
SUN INTO MON...LIGHT N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. SUBSIDING SEAS
BUT 5 FOOT SEAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
708 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION THU WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WINDY AND WARM FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
WATCHING STRATUS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD FROM COASTAL CT AND SW RI.
LATEST RAP SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ADVECT N THEN NE
ACROSS SNE OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. FAR SE MA AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS MAY ESCAPE THE
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
MOISTURE APPEARS FAIRLY SHALLOW AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DRIES
MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
TEMPS...NOT AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT AS AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED ALONG WITH
DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THU...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO
THE 60S...HENCE HUMID CONDITIONS. LOTS LOW CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW
AND BUFKIT RH PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE IF FAIRLY SHALLOW...MAINLY
BELOW 5 KFT. FAIRLY DRY ALOFT GIVEN PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. NOT MUCH SB INSTABILITY WITH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
JUST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. THAT ALSO SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN. SO MAINLY A DRY DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
POP-UP SHOWER. PWATS ARE HIGH SO BRIEF DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE. DID
REMOVE MENTION OF A TSTM GIVEN THE LIMIT SB INSTABILITY AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF MORE SUN DOES MATERIALIZE OR SUFFICIENT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM CLOUDY AREAS ADJACENT TO SUNNY AREAS AN
ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE.
WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
THU NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY SHALLOW SUPPORTING
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. NO WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY
TOWARD FRI MORNING AS SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MILD WITH DEW PTS IN THE U50S TO L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HEAVY RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG
* REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL
OVERVIEW...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BLOCKING
RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SLOW MOVING TROF LIFTING NE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG THIS WEEKEND. MAIN
WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE FRI INTO
SAT AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROF TRANSPORTS
HIGH PWAT PLUME NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENG. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW
NORMAL AS CLOSED LOW AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER NEW
ENG.
FRIDAY...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. EXPECT LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE
INTERIOR BUT SOME SUNSHINE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS RIDGING TO THE
EAST MAINTAINS SOME DRIER AIR. MAX TEMPS MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...MILDEST E. LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHERE MAIN FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM...BUT
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE CT VALLEY WEST AS HIGH PWAT PLUME MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...
MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION WITH ANOMALOUS
PWAT PLUME. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE STRONG OMEGA AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WHICH COULD TRAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IS +3
TO +4 SD AND PWAT ANOMALY IS +2 TO +3 SD WHICH IS A GOOD SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE 06-12Z IN THE
WEST AND 12-18Z SAT IN THE EAST. STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE MOVING TO
THE EAST DURING SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD.
IT APPEARS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE LONGEST DURATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND PWAT ANOMALY
IS FOCUSED. LESSER RAIN FURTHER E AS BEST FORCING WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SNE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH E MA INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENG. LOCALLY 3+ INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
BERKSHIRES WHERE SOME UPSLOPE IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL TO THE WEST BUT IS MOVING EWD WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING INTO NEW ENG. MODELS INDICATE
WAVE DEVELOPING S OF NEW ENG WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTH
INTO SNE. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MON AND TUE
AS CLOSED LOW AND COLD POOL SETTLES OVER NEW ENG. TT WELL INTO THE
50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS. THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON WED BUT
RESIDUAL COLD POOL WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS IN NEW ENG.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS CT AND THE SOUTH COAST WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND N THEN NE ACROSS MUCH OF SNE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
ALREADY AT BDL/PVD AT 23Z AND SHOULD REACH ORH-BOS-MHT-FMH BY
06Z. LOW PROB OF IFR ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE. ACK MAY BE BE SPARED THE LOWER CIGS.
THU...MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY. ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. REMOVED TSTM FROM THE FORECAST AS PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW.
THU NIGHT...MVFR LIKELY WITH LOW RISK OF IFR INLAND ESPECIALLY
HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING. WIND SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTH SHOULD OCCUR 21Z-
00Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR...ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW ENG BUT MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE EAST. SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING AS SHOWERS AND SCT
TSTMS MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN
06-12Z IN THE WEST AND 12-18Z IN THE EAST. AREAS OF LLWS DEVELOPING
AS LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...QUIET/TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH DRY
WEATHER/GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIMIT VSBY TO 1-3 MILES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RI WATERS.
THU...MORNING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY 1-3 MILES...THEN
IMPROVING BY MIDDAY. SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. S
WINDS 15-20 KT STRONGEST WIND NEAR SHORE.
THU NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TOWARD FRI MORNING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRI...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT LIKELY
WITH BUILDING SEAS. WINDS DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO W/NW. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.
SUN INTO MON...LIGHT N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. SUBSIDING SEAS
BUT 5 FOOT SEAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TRACKED INTO THE
ADIRONDACK REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS PER MESO
OBS AND RADAR VELOCITY INTERPRETATIONS. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER UPSTREAM AS
PER THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...PER OBS...DID
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED AT THIS TIME.
ON TUESDAY THE 500HPA RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FM GRTLKS TO E SEABOARD.
AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE BCMS MUCH SHARPER. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT DRIFTS A BIT FURTHER S AS ITS PARALLELS THE 500HPA FLOW
TUES...BUT AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MVS EAST THE FRONT BRIEFLY STALLS
AND BEGINS TO RETURN N LATE TUESDAY. AS THE 500HPA RIDGE SHIFTS E
TUE THREAT OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS WILL BE INCRG ASSOC WITH THESE
PASSING FEATURES. THE MDLS HV COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TDYS
12UTC RUNS.
THE IMPACTS OF THE CDFNT WILL BE MODEST AS IT WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE TO E TO SE TNGT. IT WILL PUT
FCA IN MARINE LAYER LATER TNGT AND TUES WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS...BUT MAX TEMPS TUES WILL STILL MAKE 70 IN MOST AREAS TUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOUTHEAST
FLOW OF MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL TEND TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. POPS OF 20 TO 50 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S ACROSS NY ZONES...AND THE
MID OR UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND ZONES. LOWS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SO WE ARE EXPECTING WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT NEAR WEST-CENTRAL NY. SO BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF
THUNDER DUE TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED...SO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY MAY NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AS WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. AS OF
NOW...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION IN
TERMS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF HIGH PWATS NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WITH 12Z GEFS INDICATING +2 TO +3 STDEV...COURTESY OF A +3 TO
+4 STDEV SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT 850 MB. ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE-RICH AIR...THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES TOO.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH FORECAST MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG IT...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
ON SATURDAY...DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SHOULD OCCUR. AS A
SPRAWLING UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO GET CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
A CHANGE IN AIR MASS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM OUR REGION
TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AWAY FROM OUR AREA. STILL...AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR NOW...WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
VCSH FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE
TIME.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4-6 KFT
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL BECOME BKN-OVC
FOR ALL TAF SITES.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME E-SE FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AT 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 75 AND 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55
PERCENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
ANY RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE
RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE HEAVY AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
NUMERICAL MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...
.UPDATE...DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TOWARD
THE WRN SIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING IN DEEP LAYER SE/SSE
FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
LATE THIS EVENING. THE LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL PUSH
INTO THE ERN GULF LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW TO MID LYR FLOW VEERING TO
THE S/SSE LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
APPEARS MAIN PREFRONTAL FORCING WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST AND FL BIG BEND WITH MAINLY ATLC SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BASED ON
THE 18Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THUNDER
FOR LAND AREAS BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING STORMS LATER TONIGHT
OVER THE ATLC THAT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST. LOWS WILL BE
WARM IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWER CHCS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR CSTL TERMINALS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR E CENTRAL FL TERMINALS
FROM 14Z-21Z ON THU AS FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SSE WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING SCA FOR
WINDS TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THU WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL FOUR CLIMATE SITES
TODAY (5/14).
HI-MIN
DAB 73 1995 ...LOW THRU 9 PM... 76
MCO 73 1995 ...LOW THRU 9 PM... 74
MLB 75 2009 ...LOW THRU 9 PM... 77
VRB 75 1995 ...LOW THRU 9 PM... 75 (WOULD TIE THE WARM LOW FOR 5/14)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 87 63 81 / 40 80 40 10
MCO 73 88 65 83 / 40 80 40 10
MLB 77 88 67 80 / 40 70 40 10
VRB 76 86 71 81 / 40 70 40 10
LEE 72 87 62 82 / 40 80 30 10
SFB 73 89 64 83 / 40 80 40 10
ORL 73 88 65 82 / 40 80 40 10
FPR 77 86 72 82 / 40 70 40 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
822 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE 3...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH REST OF THE NIGHT AND PUSH
WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE LAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
&&
.UPDATE 3...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND WAS MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTHERN
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. THE LIGHTNING THREAT IS
RELATIVELY LOW OVERNIGHT...SO DID NOT ADD VCTS AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SO ADDED VCTS AND SHRA TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE 2...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO HAVE
LOWER THE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOW CHANCE CAT FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING BACK SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL SHOW A UP TREND IN POPS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
UPDATE 2...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR FRIDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA PUSHING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT WITH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A
SURGE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LACKING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST. CURIOUSLY THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INDICATE INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE
THE OUTLIER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF. LIKELY SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH REGIONAL WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A PRE-CAUTIONARY SMALL CRAFT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 84 73 82 / 40 70 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 74 83 / 40 70 40 30
MIAMI 76 85 73 84 / 40 70 40 30
NAPLES 74 84 72 81 / 20 60 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND WAS MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTHERN
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. THE LIGHTNING THREAT IS
RELATIVELY LOW OVERNIGHT...SO DID NOT ADD VCTS AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SO ADDED VCTS AND SHRA TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE 2...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO HAVE
LOWER THE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOW CHANCE CAT FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING BACK SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL SHOW A UP TREND IN POPS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE 2...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR FRIDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA PUSHING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT WITH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A
SURGE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LACKING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST. CURIOUSLY THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INDICATE INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE
THE OUTLIER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF. LIKELY SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH REGIONAL WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A PRE-CAUTIONARY SMALL CRAFT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 84 73 82 / 40 70 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 74 83 / 40 70 40 30
MIAMI 77 85 73 84 / 40 70 40 30
NAPLES 73 84 72 81 / 20 60 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
244 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THEN TURNING
MUCH COLDER MIDWEEK WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS/RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISCUSSED IN THE
ABOVE/RECENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WITH ATTENTION NOW SHIFTING TO
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA SOUTH TO TEXAS...AHEAD
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE AS IT
ALL SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...WHICH WOULD BRING ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AS SOON AS 23Z-00Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHEST EARLIER
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY BEFORE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVENING. AS NOTED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WATCH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT HOW FAR EAST AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
TIED TO TIMING. MAIN THREATS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES AND EVEN A BIT
HIGHER TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY...THE ENTIRE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW THUS HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE
HEAVY RAINS IN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN SUBURBS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST TO MOVE EAST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF STRONGER/HEAVIER PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN IL.
PRECIP PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL LIKELY SLOW TUESDAY MORNING AS IT
SLOWLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BUT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. TEMP TRENDS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS THEY
WILL LIKELY FALL OR BECOME STEADY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WITH
SOME RECOVERY IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WHILE THESE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID MAY...IT WILL LIKELY FEEL
MUCH COLDER GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE OVERALL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS EXACT TRACK COULD STILL
HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE
CLOSER THE LOW TRACKS TO THE AREA...THE STRONGER THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. BUT AS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER COLD/WET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY ONLY
IN THE 50S...THOUGH ANY SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS COULD
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION THURSDAY
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...WEAK IMPULSES COULD HELP
TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL START
A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 60S THIS WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TRENDING SOUTHEAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
* WIND SHIFT TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
* MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
CLEARED TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH GYY MAY SEE A FEW
SKIRT TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME ERRATIC...THOUGH SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED
OFF. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREND TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK WITH A SHIFT TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS. VFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY BUT MVFR AND SOME IFR IS
OFF TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT.
HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING BY A FEW HOURS AND ADDITIONAL TIMING TWEAKS
MAY BE NEEDED. MVFR LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BASES SHOULD LIFT WITH TIME...AND MAY SCATTER
DURING THE EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPECIFICS NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TREND.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DETAILS AFTER 12Z OR SO.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR POTENTIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
BASES RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
320 PM CDT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PER SHIP OBS AND SURROUNDING SFC COASTAL
OBS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE LAKE. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS BACK WEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER E CENTRAL MN / NORTHWEST WI WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY SWEEPING OUT THE FOG AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MORNING TUESDAY.
WINDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
SHORELINES. ONGOING CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED THE WIND FIELD
CAUSING AN ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO
THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT REESTABLISHES
ITSELF... NEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES INTO THE EVENING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1130 PM CDT Mon May 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Mon May 12 2014
Updating forecast tonight to address convection chances as band of
showers and thunderstorms moving ne toward the IL river at mid
evening, spreads into eastern IL overnight and Tue morning as it
weakens. Isolated strong to severe storms possible next hour or
two nw of the IL river but main severe wx threat has shifted into
far northern IL near the WI border near warm front. SPC has
trimmed slight risk of severe storms this evening to areas from
Peoria north, including Peoria, Woodford, Knox, Stark and Marshall
counties. 1005 mb low pressure along the SE MN and WI border has
a cold front extending southward through eastern IA into central
MO and nw AR. Moist and unstable airmass over IL with dewpoints of
65 to 70F with breezy south winds. Leading edge of showers and
thunderstorms was between Galesburg and Peoria to near Jacksonville
and west of St Louis metro. Cold front to track east to near I-57
by 12Z/7 am Tue. Forecast lows look on track tonight. Mild lows in
the mid to upper 60s over eastern IL ahead of cold front tonight
while cooler mid to upper 50s behind the cold front over the IL
river valley.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1125 PM CDT Mon May 12 2014
Little change from previous thinking with the main forecast
problem being from coverage of rainfall overnight and affect
on cigs with several of the short term solutions showing cigs
down to IFR by morning. Storms have weakened considerably from
earlier this evening to just rain showers with an isolated
thunderstorm. Satellite and surface observations showing a rather
large area of MVFR and local IFR cigs to our west and southwest
and models are picking up on this and bringing in the lower cigs
overnight. Will continue from previous forecast trends in lowering
cigs to low MVFR and IFR at PIA and BMI around 12z. Will keep the
MVFR cigs going with period of light rain in the morning and then
push the rain to our east by late afternoon with a gradual trend
toward VFR cigs aftr 00z.
Surface winds ahead of the front will be south to southwest at 10
to 15 kts...but at DEC and CMI which have been recently affected
by a thunderstorm outflow boundary, will have a VRB direction to
start the TAF off with at DEC and CMI. Winds should recover about
an hour later and go back to the south and southwest. Once a cold
front pushes through our area Tuesday morning, winds will shift
into the west and northwest at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts
possible in the afternoon.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT Mon May 12 2014
Warm and rather humid day across the forecast area today, with dew
points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and temperatures
mostly in the 80s. Air mass over our area is uncapped and CAPE`s
are from 3500-4000 J/kg in central Illinois, but so far convection
in our CWA has been spotty. More widespread showers/storms have
been occurring across the Ohio Valley. Main action has been
filling in across Iowa and the northwest half of Missouri, along a
cold front.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday:
Initial forecast concern is on the severe weather potential the
next several hours. The individual storms to our west have been
moving northeast with the overall area only slowly shifting
eastward. The HRRR and NMM high-resolution models have that
particular band of storms reaching the Illinois River around 6 to
7 pm and the I-55 corridor around 9 to 10 pm. Surface observations
over the area are not showing any meaningful boundary currently
present, thus the popcorn nature of the showers/storms so far.
Infrared and water vapor imagery showing some anti-cyclonic motion
over our CWA, which could be causing enough sinking of the air to
keep the showers under control so far. 0-6km shear values expected
to remain rather modest in most areas, so am thinking that the
storms will remain rather disorganized but briefly severe until
the main line gets here. Loss of daytime heating should weaken the
line of storms somewhat as it moves through tonight, but CAPE`s
remain 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the front so there will still be
some instability to work with.
Morning model runs have the front roughly along the Indiana border
by midday, with threat of thunder diminishing from west to east
through the day. Have kept the dry weather west of I-55 for the
afternoon with likely PoP`s across east central and southeast
Illinois continuing in the afternoon. Temperatures across the east
will be slowly falling in the afternoon behind the front.
Long-advertised phasing of upper troughs in the north central and
southwest U.S. will try to take place the next couple days, although
the models keep them somewhat distinct through mid week.
Development of a surface low will take place Tuesday night across
the lower Mississippi Valley, and this low will be ejected
northeast on the nose of a developing 90-110 knot jet. Dry
northeast flow will erode the northern fringes of the rain shield
some, so will continue to focus the higher PoP`s on Wednesday
across the southeast half of the forecast area. As the surface low
moves northeast, a large upper low will develop over the upper
Mississippi Valley, so the threat of showers will continue even
after the main precipitation shield exits. High temperatures both
Wednesday and Thursday only expected to be in the upper 50s to
around 60 most areas due to the cooler air aloft and the rain.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:
The cool and showery weather will continue into Friday, before the
upper low starts to lift into Ontario and the upper pattern over
the U.S. flattens out somewhat. A fast moving wave in the upper
flow tracks an area of rain southeast later in the weekend, with
the ECMWF model about 12-18 hours faster and a bit further north.
Have limited PoP`s on Saturday night and Sunday to slight chances
across the south half of the forecast area, but this may need to
be bumped up if these trends persist on the next couple model
runs. A more substantial warming trend will occur early next week,
as ridging occurs across the Plains.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AT 19Z...THE SHARP COLD FRONT
WAS WELL TO THE EAST FROM LOWER MI SOUTH TO LA. AN EXPANSIVE POST
FRONTAL STRATUS DECK EXTENDED WEST INTO CENTRAL IA. THE CLOUDS...
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS...WAS LIMITING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A FEW
DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG THE LAGGING 850 MB FRONT OVER
W CENTRAL IL NEAR MACOMB. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH REACHING FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO A SEPARATE
SOUTHERN STREAM VORTEX EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
OK PANHANDLE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AT 850 MB WERE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND NW IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON COOL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING MORE ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED BY RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATES THE STRATUS DECK
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SW
WITH SUPPORT FROM EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA WILL KEEP HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURE OR FROST TONIGHT...BUT STILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD
TOWARD MORNING SENDS TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL CLOSE TO ZERO C.
HAVE KEPT MINS NEAR TO BELOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FROM THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. DIURNALLY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GETS PULLED
NORTHEAST...SENDING LIFT INTO NORTHERN IL BY AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG
WITH A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING N-NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WHAT SHOULD
BE A VERY LOW QPF EVENT BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOW LEVELS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN THE SAME AIRMASS AS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 50S IN THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER AND DRY AIR MAY ALLOW AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE
MUCH LIKE TODAY LOOKED A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
IN THIS AIRMASS AND HAVE TRENDED NEAR TO BELOW THE COOLEST NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDES UP A STALLED FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DUMP CHILLY
AIR INTO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO ABOUT -2C OVER THE CWA. MODELS SIMILAR
IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN...TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA. I WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE INSTABILITY SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE (FOR MAY) DEEP TROUGH. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION THIS WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE
FAVORED TIME FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S BUT EXACT NUMBERS REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON SURGING WARMER AIR
INTO THE CWA...AND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...PUSHING IT OFF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO HANG ON TO THE
TROUGH IN THE EAST A BIT LONGER KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
NORMAL AND HOLDING OFF THE RAIN. WE WILL SEE.
21
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER IL
AND MUCH OF IA IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT AND BREAK UP AND LATEST FORECASTS WILL KEEP CIGS AT AN MVFR
THRESHOLD AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN LIFT AND
BECOME BROKEN AROUND 4000 FT AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK NW WINDS
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
155 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WAS WITH MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAG NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY. DECENT CAA WILL PERSISTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDED BY INCREASING
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT
AND LIFT IN THIS FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY LOBE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE DAY AND LOOKS TO REINFORCE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THE 13.05Z HRRR AND 13.03Z HOPWRF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CLOUD COVER TRENDS...BUT
THINKING ARE SLIGHTLY TOO QUICK IN ERODING. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
AFTER A WARM AND ACTIVE PERIOD THE PAST WEEK...WE WILL TURN AROUND
AND GO BACK TO A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THOUGH NOT RAIN FREE...CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SLIM TO NONE. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME
RIVERS ARE RISING NOW BUT REMAINING IN BANK. THE H500 LOW NOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX DIGGING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND COLD POOL DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN AND IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS
DROPPING TO 540 NORTH TO ABOUT 546 SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY A WEAK UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD IOWA...BRIEFLY ENHANCING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
RESPOND AND REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND
WEST. AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE
H500 COLD POOL THURSDAY IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE
GEM/EURO MODEL VS THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM/EURO ARE STRONGER AND
ESSENTIALLY PRODUCE A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
GFS/NAM ARE KEEPING A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE OVER THE AREA.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE COLDER...MORE CLOSED SOLUTION SO WILL
TREND TOWARD COLDER...CLOUDIER...AND MORE SHOWERY FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH WITH THE COLD POOL ON
THURSDAY TO PRODUCE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS FORECAST...MAY SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL/SLEET OR VERY COLD RAIN WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS THURSDAY IF
DOWNDRAFTS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING WITH THE H500 LOW IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISO THUNDER ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH AS CLOUDS BUILD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PULL EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS IOWA INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A GREAT
LAKES HIGH STILL HOLDING ON SUNDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH UNCERTAINLY ON TIMING IS
INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL ENTER THE PACNW SUNDAY AND INCREASE THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TEMPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER INTO MONDAY. TRENDS OF THE GEM/EURO
CONFIRM INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL REACH 70 WITH LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH MORE
ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...13/12Z
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
MIXING HELPS TO LIFT THE CIGS BY AROUND MIDDAY. POTENTIAL MCW TO ALO
MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO DID
DELAY VFR CIGS ABOUT 3 HOURS. OTHERWISE...CAA PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND ALLOWS WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
CLOUD COVER AND NW WINDS ADVECTING AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FOR
MID MAY HAS PREVENTED MUCH WARMING SO FAR THIS MORNING. IN FACT
INDEPENDENCE HAS HELD STEADY AT 46 DEGREES SINCE 3 AM. EROSION OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWED BY HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE STREAMING N-NE
EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER
BOTH HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
HIGHS YESTERDAY...IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST SOME LATE AFTERNOON SUN TO
REACH HIGHS THAT HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD TO A RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S NW TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
IF CLOUDS HOLD ON AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL RH
FIELDS...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S MAY EVEN BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTH THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL IL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WAS
JUST EAST OF A DEEP UPPER TROF THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME PATCHY POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE SHOWERS WERE
COLLOCATED WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S OVER PARTS
EASTERN IOWA WHILE MID 60S WERE STILL BEING REPORTED NEAR THE FRONT
IN WEST CENTRAL IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. THE UPPER TROF THOUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...OVER THE PLAINS. LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL SHUTDOWN THE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS
FEEDING NORTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH DAY WITH CONTINUED UPPER FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H3 JET EAST OF THE TROF AXIS. EXPECT MOST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME FILTERED SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOSS OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS. THE PARTIAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION TODAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST. THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP ALLOW FOR A MINIMAL RECOVERY WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED...AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THINNING AND/OR
MOVING EAST AND LIGHT WINDS. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTHWEST WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A
LITTLE UNDER THE COLDER GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 30S. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THICKER HIGH CLOUDINESS SO KEPT MINS IN THE
40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES...AS LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE END
OF WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST
THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST WITH THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST WEST
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BY THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MODEL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FORCING PROGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 50S EACH DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THURSDAY/S SHORTWAVE. MODEL H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING
CLOSE TO 0C THURSDAY NIGHT AND GOING NEGATIVE IN THE -4 TO -2C RANGE
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID MAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FURTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND FROST POTENTIAL.
THIS WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MODELS LIFT THE
UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF TODAY
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY MVFR CIGS INCREASING FROM AROUND 15HND
FT THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 3KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OVER
WESTERN IA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SHOULD REACH
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...11
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WAS WITH MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAG NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY. DECENT CAA WILL PERSISTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDED BY INCREASING
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT
AND LIFT IN THIS FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY LOBE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE DAY AND LOOKS TO REINFORCE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THE 13.05Z HRRR AND 13.03Z HOPWRF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CLOUD COVER TRENDS...BUT
THINKING ARE SLIGHTLY TOO QUICK IN ERODING. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
AFTER A WARM AND ACTIVE PERIOD THE PAST WEEK...WE WILL TURN AROUND
AND GO BACK TO A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THOUGH NOT RAIN FREE...CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SLIM TO NONE. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME
RIVERS ARE RISING NOW BUT REMAINING IN BANK. THE H500 LOW NOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX DIGGING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND COLD POOL DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN AND IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS
DROPPING TO 540 NORTH TO ABOUT 546 SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY A WEAK UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD IOWA...BRIEFLY ENHANCING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
RESPOND AND REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND
WEST. AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE
H500 COLD POOL THURSDAY IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE
GEM/EURO MODEL VS THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM/EURO ARE STRONGER AND
ESSENTIALLY PRODUCE A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
GFS/NAM ARE KEEPING A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE OVER THE AREA.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE COLDER...MORE CLOSED SOLUTION SO WILL
TREND TOWARD COLDER...CLOUDIER...AND MORE SHOWERY FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH WITH THE COLD POOL ON
THURSDAY TO PRODUCE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS FORECAST...MAY SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL/SLEET OR VERY COLD RAIN WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS THURSDAY IF
DOWNDRAFTS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING WITH THE H500 LOW IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISO THUNDER ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH AS CLOUDS BUILD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PULL EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS IOWA INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A GREAT
LAKES HIGH STILL HOLDING ON SUNDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH UNCERTAINLY ON TIMING IS
INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL ENTER THE PACNW SUNDAY AND INCREASE THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TEMPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER INTO MONDAY. TRENDS OF THE GEM/EURO
CONFIRM INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL REACH 70 WITH LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH MORE
ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...13/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
MIXING HELPS TO LIFT THE CIGS BY AROUND MIDDAY. POTENTIAL MCW TO
ALO MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO
DID DELAY VFR CIGS ABOUT 3 HOURS. OTHERWISE...CAA PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND ALLOWS WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WAS WITH MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAG NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY. DECENT CAA WILL PERSISTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDED BY INCREASING
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT
AND LIFT IN THIS FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY LOBE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE DAY AND LOOKS TO REINFORCE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THE 13.05Z HRRR AND 13.03Z HOPWRF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CLOUD COVER TRENDS...BUT
THINKING ARE SLIGHTLY TOO QUICK IN ERODING. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
AFTER A WARM AND ACTIVE PERIOD THE PAST WEEK...WE WILL TURN AROUND
AND GO BACK TO A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THOUGH NOT RAIN FREE...CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SLIM TO NONE. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME
RIVERS ARE RISING NOW BUT REMAINING IN BANK. THE H500 LOW NOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX DIGGING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND COLD POOL DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN AND IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS
DROPPING TO 540 NORTH TO ABOUT 546 SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY A WEAK UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP
SOUTH TOWARD IOWA...BRIEFLY ENHANCING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD A CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
RESPOND AND REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND
WEST. AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE
H500 COLD POOL THURSDAY IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE
GEM/EURO MODEL VS THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM/EURO ARE STRONGER AND
ESSENTIALLY PRODUCE A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
GFS/NAM ARE KEEPING A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE OVER THE AREA.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE COLDER...MORE CLOSED SOLUTION SO WILL
TREND TOWARD COLDER...CLOUDIER...AND MORE SHOWERY FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH WITH THE COLD POOL ON
THURSDAY TO PRODUCE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS FORECAST...MAY SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL/SLEET OR VERY COLD RAIN WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS THURSDAY IF
DOWNDRAFTS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING WITH THE H500 LOW IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISO THUNDER ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH AS CLOUDS BUILD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PULL EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS IOWA INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A GREAT
LAKES HIGH STILL HOLDING ON SUNDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH UNCERTAINLY ON TIMING IS
INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL ENTER THE PACNW SUNDAY AND INCREASE THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TEMPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER INTO MONDAY. TRENDS OF THE GEM/EURO
CONFIRM INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL REACH 70 WITH LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH MORE
ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...13/06Z
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAINLY HIGHER IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND LIFT TO
VFR TOWARD DAYBREAK/TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
358 PM CDT Tue May 13 2014
...Updated for long term discussion...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
In areas of forecast lows from 33 to 36F, went with an NPW Frost
Advisory tonight, same time as the Freeze Warning, 09Z-13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A large scale high pressure system over Utah and Wyoming will move
just slightly southeast tonight, bringing decreasing winds and clear
skies. There is a swath of mid-level clouds in the 080 range across
Western Kansas this afternoon. With the suppression from the
southeastward progressing surface high pressure, skies will become
clear by midnight. Winds will decrease from the current breezy
conditions to around 10 MPH by 00z, and then even lower to 06-07
MPH after midnight. For this reason, I lowered temperatures in
the west to just below freezing, and posted another NPW Freeze
Warning for the 09Z to 13Z time range, basically west of a Scott
City to Hugoton line. The NAM and RUC models both support these
sub-freezing temperatures out west.
As for Wednesday, I made a few slight changes. There is an upper
level trough dragging through, with better dynamics to our north.
But, we could see a few sprinkles/virga Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Chose to go with scattered sprinkles since the
only support for any precipitation will be from the upper trough
crossing, with no significant lower level moisture, and only in our
northern 1/3rd of the CWA. Wednesday should be slightly warmer
than today, mainly based on the surface high pressure segmenting
into two high pressure centers, one in the Wyoming and the other
over Oklahoma. Surface winds Wednesday will start out light, then
be from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. This will not be a strong
down slope affect, but enough to push maximum temperatures upward
a couple to few degrees warmer than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A large upper level trough will develop over the upper midwest by
Thursday night as northern and southern stream troughs progress
eastward and merge together. Surface high pressure will generally
be situated across the central plains on the back side of the
trough. This will lead to fairly cool weather with highs in the
60s to near 70 Thursday. A few sprinkles are possible Thursday
afternoon given the cold upper level temperatures, but low level
moisture will be a limiting factor. A few showers are possible by
Friday, particularly in far western Kansas given the lack of
capping and where temperatures may reach the upper 70s. Saturday
night still looks cool as surface high pressure builds into
western Kansas. Lows could be cooler than currently forecasted,
with some upper 30s possible along interstate 70.
By Saturday and Sunday, the flow will become more westerly at mid
and high levels, which will allow for lee troughing and some
moisture return into western Kansas. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through this period, but no severe weather
or heavy rainfall is expected. High temperatures should remain
mainly in the 70s.
An upper level trough will develop near the West Coast by Monday and
then progress into the Rockies by Tuesday and Wednesday. Low level
moisture will continue to increase so that surface based CAPE will
be higher each day. Low level moisture return from the Gulf of
Mexico is progged to be rather limited even early next week since
the prior cold front late this week will have shunted the low
level moisture into the tropics. So instead of high CAPE ahead of
a dryline and along a weak frontal boundary, instability will be
rather marginal. However, given the presence of boundaries and at
least marginal to moderate CAPE values, thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out through Wednesday. Temperatures will be warming early
next week as well, with the warmest readings in far southwest
Kansas in the 90s, and cooler 80s along interstate 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
The Flight category will be VFR through the next 24 hours. It will
be breezy to start off this TAF period, with north winds of
20G30KT through 00Z. North winds will settle to the 10KT range
then, and fall even farther from the northwest at 06-07KT after
06z. Furthermore, there will be sct to bkn 070-080 mid level
clouds around through after sunset, then they will begin to sct
out to the few sky category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 66 39 69 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 33 65 38 69 / 0 10 10 20
EHA 31 65 39 72 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 34 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 34 67 40 65 / 0 10 10 20
P28 40 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064-076-077-085-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CDT Tue May 13 2014
...Updated to add a Frost Advisory just east of the Freeze Warning...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
In areas of forecast lows from 33 to 36F, went with an NPW Frost
Advisory tonight, same time as the Freeze Warning, 09Z-13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A large scale high pressure system over Utah and Wyoming will move
just slightly southeast tonight, bringing decreasing winds and clear
skies. There is a swath of mid-level clouds in the 080 range across
Western Kansas this afternoon. With the suppression from the
southeastward progressing surface high pressure, skies will become
clear by midnight. Winds will decrease from the current breezy
conditions to around 10 MPH by 00z, and then even lower to 06-07
MPH after midnight. For this reason, I lowered temperatures in
the west to just below freezing, and posted another NPW Freeze
Warning for the 09Z to 13Z time range, basically west of a Scott
City to Hugoton line. The NAM and RUC models both support these
sub-freezing temperatures out west.
As for Wednesday, I made a few slight changes. There is an upper
level trough dragging through, with better dynamics to our north.
But, we could see a few sprinkles/virga Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Chose to go with scattered sprinkles since the
only support for any precipitation will be from the upper trough
crossing, with no significant lower level moisture, and only in our
northern 1/3rd of the CWA. Wednesday should be slightly warmer
than today, mainly based on the surface high pressure segmenting
into two high pressure centers, one in the Wyoming and the other
over Oklahoma. Surface winds Wednesday will start out light, then
be from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. This will not be a strong
down slope affect, but enough to push maximum temperatures upward
a couple to few degrees warmer than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
Medium range models indicate an elongated upper level trough of low
pressure transitioning slowly eastward across the Central Plains
Wednesday giving way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the
Western High Plains by Wednesday night. Dry conditions are likely
through at least early Thursday as much drier air infiltrates the
lower and mid levels. There is an outside chance for a few high
based showers late Thursday as an H5 vort lobe swings southeastward
across the Northern Plains into the Central Plains on the back side
of the departing large scale trough axis. Associated with this
feature will be a marginally intensified upper level jet
increasing dynamic support aloft. Along with the help of some
moisture return in the lower/mid levels as indicated by GFS/ECMWF
model soundings, a few light showers will be possible across
central and portions of southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon/evening.
A similar setup will exist Friday with the additional help of an
easterly upslope flow as surface low pressure develops generally
across southeastern Colorado and the western panhandle of
Oklahoma.
Temperatures will gradually warm from Tuesday into Wednesday even as
surface high pressure remains settled across the Colorado Rockies.
This will allow a low level northwesterly flow to persist across the
high plains of western Kansas. With marginally warmer air moving
into the area combined with the help of some downsloping, expect
highs well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F Wednesday afternoon. The
gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend as the
northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal across the Western
High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
The Flight category will be VFR through the next 24 hours. It will
be breezy to start off this TAF period, with north winds of
20G30KT through 00Z. North winds will settle to the 10KT range
then, and fall even farther from the northwest at 06-07KT after
06z. Furthermore, there will be sct to bkn 070-080 mid level
clouds around through after sunset, then they will begin to sct
out to the few sky category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 66 39 69 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 33 65 38 69 / 0 10 10 20
EHA 31 65 39 72 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 34 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 34 67 40 65 / 0 10 10 20
P28 40 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064-076-077-085-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT Tue May 13 2014
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A large scale high pressure system over Utah and Wyoming will move
just slightly southeast tonight, bringing decreasing winds and clear
skies. There is a swath of mid-level clouds in the 080 range across
Western Kansas this afternoon. With the suppression from the
southeastward progressing surface high pressure, skies will become
clear by midnight. Winds will decrease from the current breezy
conditions to around 10 MPH by 00z, and then even lower to 06-07
MPH after midnight. For this reason, I lowered temperatures in
the west to just below freezing, and posted another NPW Freeze
Warning for the 09Z to 13Z time range, basically west of a Scott
City to Hugoton line. The NAM and RUC models both support these
sub-freezing temperatures out west.
As for Wednesday, I made a few slight changes. There is an upper
level trough dragging through, with better dynamics to our north.
But, we could see a few sprinkles/virga Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Chose to go with scattered sprinkles since the
only support for any precipitation will be from the upper trough
crossing, with no significant lower level moisture, and only in our
northern 1/3rd of the CWA. Wednesday should be slightly warmer
than today, mainly based on the surface high pressure segmenting
into two high pressure centers, one in the Wyoming and the other
over Oklahoma. Surface winds Wednesday will start out light, then
be from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. This will not be a strong
down slope affect, but enough to push maximum temperatures upward
a couple to few degrees warmer than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
Medium range models indicate an elongated upper level trough of low
pressure transitioning slowly eastward across the Central Plains
Wednesday giving way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the
Western High Plains by Wednesday night. Dry conditions are likely
through at least early Thursday as much drier air infiltrates the
lower and mid levels. There is an outside chance for a few high
based showers late Thursday as an H5 vort lobe swings southeastward
across the Northern Plains into the Central Plains on the back side
of the departing large scale trough axis. Associated with this
feature will be a marginally intensified upper level jet
increasing dynamic support aloft. Along with the help of some
moisture return in the lower/mid levels as indicated by GFS/ECMWF
model soundings, a few light showers will be possible across
central and portions of southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon/evening.
A similar setup will exist Friday with the additional help of an
easterly upslope flow as surface low pressure develops generally
across southeastern Colorado and the western panhandle of
Oklahoma.
Temperatures will gradually warm from Tuesday into Wednesday even as
surface high pressure remains settled across the Colorado Rockies.
This will allow a low level northwesterly flow to persist across the
high plains of western Kansas. With marginally warmer air moving
into the area combined with the help of some downsloping, expect
highs well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F Wednesday afternoon. The
gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend as the
northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal across the Western
High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
The Flight category will be VFR through the next 24 hours. It will
be breezy to start off this TAF period, with north winds of
20G30KT through 00Z. North winds will settle to the 10KT range
then, and fall even farther from the northwest at 06-07KT after
06z. Furthermore, there will be sct to bkn 070-080 mid level
clouds around through after sunset, then they will begin to sct
out to the few sky category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 33 65 38 70 / 0 10 0 20
EHA 31 65 39 74 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 34 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 34 67 40 65 / 0 10 0 20
P28 40 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
SUNSET. THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THIS AND RECENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LED TO
SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO
LOWER A BIT BY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION
IMITATING OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN OR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NF AND BIG SOUTH FORK NRRA
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTERNOON NOON WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO
THE COALFIELDS/VA BORDER COUNTIES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS PULSE TYPE CONVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COUPLE GENERATIONS
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AS OF RIGHT
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NO MANS LAND WITH RESPECT TO THESE TWO
SYSTEMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME
TODAY WITH HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS INSTABILITY WANES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL FINALLY START TURNING MORE ACTIVE TO OUR
WEST AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...GENERATING A SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL GET ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. GENERALLY HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF HIGHER POPS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY NEED
TO BE BACKED OFF A BIT MORE IF THE TRENDS OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION
CONTINUE. IN FACT...THINGS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO LACK OF FORCING AND NO REAL
MECHANISM FOR GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL GENERALLY GO WITH
A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE
BLUEGRASS...AND TRAILING OFF INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING DRIER FOR MOST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF CLOUDS CAN HOLD OFF THROUGH THE
DAY. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL IF THE INSTABILITY
PANS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AS THEY ALL DEPICT A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WITH
TWIN POLES OF ENERGY DRIVING ITS FORMATION. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY
CLUSTER IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z THURSDAY
WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM ONE IS CUTTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
NAM IS SLOWEST...DEEPER...AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN NODE
AND IS THUS DISCOUNTED AS AN OUTLIER. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER GEM AND WEAKER GFS
HERE. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...THE GEM AND GFS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR. THE SOUTHERN WAVE FURTHER AMPLIFIES THAT NIGHT...
PLOWING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS IT DRAGS NORTHERN ENERGY SOUTH
TO FORM A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THE GEM REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE MIDDLE GROUND COMPARED WITH THE WEAKER
GFS. THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERN ENERGY THEN RIDES NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE BURGEONING MIDWEST LOW. A WEAKER
REMNANT OF THIS ENERGY DOES EASE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT JUST AS THE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE DOMINANT LOW SPREADS OVER
THIS PART OF THE STATE. THIS LARGE LOW THEN SLOWLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST
WITH ITS CORE DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE ECMWF BY
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING FAIRLY STABLE IN THE OTHERS. EVEN THE
ECMWF STARTS TO FILL THE LOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN
FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH...MAINLY INVOLVING THE
SLOWER EXIT SEEN IN THE GFS AND GEM. CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING
IN ALL THE MODELS...THOUGH THE GFS IS A NOTABLE STANDOUT ON THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SIDE HERE. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH...HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AGAIN IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE
PLAINS. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON A COLD FRONT
JUST OF THE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL LIFT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS DURING THE FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY REMAINS. IN FACT...SEVERE WEATHER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DECENT WIND SHEAR
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EVENING. DO EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION
AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO THE EVENING TO BE THE PRIMARILY DRIVING
FACTOR IN OUR SEVERE...AND EXCESSIVE RAIN...THREATS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE WILL BE
A...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND
BENEATH THE LARGE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY...BUT MORE LIKELY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
IT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
EARLY ON AND ALSO TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO
FINE TUNE SOME LOW TEMP GRIDS LATE IN THE FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE
SOME ENHANCED RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 0Z AND DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND 15Z. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE CLOSE TO LOZ...SME AND JKL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AFFECT VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO
LOWER A BIT BY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION
IMITATING OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN OR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NF AND BIG SOUTH FORK NRRA
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTERNOON NOON WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO
THE COALFIELDS/VA BORDER COUNTIES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS PULSE TYPE CONVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COUPLE GENERATIONS
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AS OF RIGHT
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN NO MANS LAND WITH RESPECT TO THESE TWO
SYSTEMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME
TODAY WITH HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 80S. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS INSTABILITY WANES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL FINALLY START TURNING MORE ACTIVE TO OUR
WEST AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...GENERATING A SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL GET ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. GENERALLY HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF HIGHER POPS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY NEED
TO BE BACKED OFF A BIT MORE IF THE TRENDS OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION
CONTINUE. IN FACT...THINGS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO LACK OF FORCING AND NO REAL
MECHANISM FOR GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL GENERALLY GO WITH
A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE
BLUEGRASS...AND TRAILING OFF INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING DRIER FOR MOST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF CLOUDS CAN HOLD OFF THROUGH THE
DAY. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL IF THE INSTABILITY
PANS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AS THEY ALL DEPICT A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WITH
TWIN POLES OF ENERGY DRIVING ITS FORMATION. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY
CLUSTER IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z THURSDAY
WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM ONE IS CUTTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
NAM IS SLOWEST...DEEPER...AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN NODE
AND IS THUS DISCOUNTED AS AN OUTLIER. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER GEM AND WEAKER GFS
HERE. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...THE GEM AND GFS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR. THE SOUTHERN WAVE FURTHER AMPLIFIES THAT NIGHT...
PLOWING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS IT DRAGS NORTHERN ENERGY SOUTH
TO FORM A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THE GEM REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE MIDDLE GROUND COMPARED WITH THE WEAKER
GFS. THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERN ENERGY THEN RIDES NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE BURGEONING MIDWEST LOW. A WEAKER
REMNANT OF THIS ENERGY DOES EASE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT JUST AS THE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE DOMINANT LOW SPREADS OVER
THIS PART OF THE STATE. THIS LARGE LOW THEN SLOWLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST
WITH ITS CORE DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE ECMWF BY
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING FAIRLY STABLE IN THE OTHERS. EVEN THE
ECMWF STARTS TO FILL THE LOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN
FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH...MAINLY INVOLVING THE
SLOWER EXIT SEEN IN THE GFS AND GEM. CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING
IN ALL THE MODELS...THOUGH THE GFS IS A NOTABLE STANDOUT ON THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SIDE HERE. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH...HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AGAIN IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE
PLAINS. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON A COLD FRONT
JUST OF THE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL LIFT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS DURING THE FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY REMAINS. IN FACT...SEVERE WEATHER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DECENT WIND SHEAR
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EVENING. DO EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION
AND ITS EVOLUTION INTO THE EVENING TO BE THE PRIMARILY DRIVING
FACTOR IN OUR SEVERE...AND EXCESSIVE RAIN...THREATS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE WILL BE
A...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND
BENEATH THE LARGE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY...BUT MORE LIKELY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
IT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
EARLY ON AND ALSO TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO
FINE TUNE SOME LOW TEMP GRIDS LATE IN THE FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE
SOME ENHANCED RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...WITH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS SMALL FOR ANYTHING AFFECTING THE TAF STIES...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
114 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ALREADY APPROACHING THEIR OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO
WILL DROP THESE VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE GOING ON OVERNIGHT.
HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE MORNING AND
EVEN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN...PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING MORE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...SO CHANCES WILL REMAIN
VERY SMALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND ONLY A FEW
STORMS ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE TERRAIN. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MORE CLOUDS RETURNING AT THE MID-LEVELS TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST...WITH AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
MOST CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED RETURNS REMAINING CLOSE BY
AND WILL LET THE CURRENT THE FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW...KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. DID FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY
SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWED VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED HERE...A GENERAL 20 PERCENT POP HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 2Z TONIGHT. THERE SIMPLY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE PROMISING FOR
TUESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION AND AMOUNTS AMONGST THE MODELS.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AS THE LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST METMOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HIGH BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN REAL
TIME WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOMORROW TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. FOG WILL BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN OUR DEEPER
AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION WITH A MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF LEADING THE WAY. TO START THE EXTENDED WE ARE WELL
INTO THE BEGINNINGS OF A PATTERN CHANGE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS UNDERGO PHASING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THE END RESULT IS A BROAD
EASTERN CONUS TOUGH WITH ITS PARENT CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY DY6...SUN THE 0Z ECMWF LIFTS THE LOW UP OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AREA OF CANADA. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA BUT
CONSISTENTLY TRIES TO SHIFT THE LOW BACK TOWARDS THE SE TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF REDEVELOPS A DIGGING LOW OVER THE SAME
REGION BUT MORE AS THE RESULT OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH. SAME ENDS...DIFFERENT MEANS. BY THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...PATTERN AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE WITH SOMEWHAT
SHARP LONG WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
REGIONS. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE BLUNTED RIDGE FURTHER WEST OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN PLAINS. OVERALL PATTERN IS RELATIVELY SLOW
FOR SPRING BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE.
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS OUR CWA LATE WED...WED NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WED WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BEFORE A DRASTIC COOL OFF THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE PATTERN AND SKY
CONDITIONS...SATURDAY MORNING COULD WIND UP BEING QUITE CHILLY WITH
LOWS IN OUR COLDEST VALLEY FLIRTING WITH THE UPPER 30S AS H850 TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN ZERO AND 3C. IN GENERAL HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP MINIMUMS
WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ATTM BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BELIEVE THE THREAT IS LIMITED OVER OUR CWA DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER
DYNAMICS. INITIALLY SFC INSTABILITY IS DECENT ENOUGH BUT WINDS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT STRONG. BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
WITH A RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. ALSO...MOST OF ANY SHEAR IS
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 3KM/10K FT. THUS INDICATIONS ARE SUCH THAT IF
SOMETHING DID GET GOING SEVERE THREAT WOULD COME MAINLY FROM BOWING
CELLS...CLUSTERS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS.
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME. A
RELATIVELY LOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY...HIGHER PWATS APPROACHING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE AT ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE JET WILL MEAN EFFICIENT RAINERS FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SO EXPECT RESULTANT QPE COULD BE
PRETTY DECENT WED NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...BUT RIDGETOP AIRPORTS SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED. SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...CONFIDENCE IS SMALL FOR ANYTHING AFFECTING
THE TAF STIES...SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1255 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL VERY SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1252 AM UPDATE...CLEARING CONTINUES AS HIGH PRES TO THE NW WORKS
ITS WAY SE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES DOWN AS
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED READINGS TO DROP OFF FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING AND THE LATEST FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S W/SOME FROST. KEPT THE MENTION OF THE PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST, BUT EXTENDED IT IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP INDICATE
SOME LLVL MOISTURE BELOW 1500 FT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. T
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...AT LEAST NRN PTNS OF THE FA...
WHICH WERE SHUT OUT OF THE SUN AND WARMTH THIS AFTN...WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS...WHILE INTERIOR SW PTNS OF THE FA WHICH
ENJOYED WHAT WAS LEFT OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT... WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN THAN THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO EASTERN MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL PUT EASTERN MAINE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT
NEAR THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RIDGING
IN THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATLANTIC HIGH SHOULD THEN PUSH OUT TO SEA ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KFVE AS OF 01Z WITH MVFR AT THE OTHER NORTHERN
MAINE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR LATER TONIGHT
AFTER 04Z WITH DOWNEAST SITES REMAINING VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY AT KPQI AND KHUL
VERY LATE TNGT TO ABT SUNRISE TUE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CONTG
ALL SITES ON TUE.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN RAIN AND
FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOG MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SOME SIGHTS EARLY
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS REQUIRED FOR THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS AND
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE TNGT THRU TUE AFT A PD OF NE 10 TO
20 KT WINDS THIS EVE. USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND FOR WINDS AND KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WINDS.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
UP TO SIX FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1059 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN TO TEXAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...MOVING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS MRNG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE
WRN HIGHLANDS. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE COUPLE OF
REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT ARE TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS MRNG AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL A CU FIELD
DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MRNG SUNSHINE WILL BE
IN NORTH-CENTRAL MD WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS IS MOVING THRU.
HIPRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MD THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PRESSURE RISES...ALLOWING FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO
ADVECT INLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLER MARINE AIR IS MARKED
BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH HAD PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
WRN SUBURBS OF PHILLY AS OF 14Z. THE LATEST RAP HAS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING THRU THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
HAD SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z IAD RAOB TO INCREASE AFTN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. MRNG UPDATE TO
THE FCST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE BAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH BACKDOOR FROPA.
AN ENSEMBLE OF THE LATEST NEAR-TERM HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY
MAY ALSO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NWRN
SUBURBS OF DC/BALTIMORE. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE (SCT COVERAGE) WITH A
LACK OF ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. A MODIFIED 12Z IAD RAOB
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
ASSUMING FULL HEATING. HAVE ADDED THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS INCREASES WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF MID-LVL DRY AIR THIS AFTN. THE MODE WOULD BE PULSE
SEVERE GIVEN HOW WEAK SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE. THERE IS ALSO A
CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORM MOTION WILL BE UNDER 10
KT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM E TO W THIS EVE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS COOLER STABLE AIR WEDGES IN BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IF AIRMASS IN WARM SECTOR IS NOT WORKED OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE MTS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TNGT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN WAKE OF FROPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
BY WED THE UPR RDG WL BE MOVG OFF THE CST AND CLDS WL BE INCRSG
HERALDING THE APRCH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WL BE CONTROLLING THE AREA
WX FOR THE FINAL 2 DAYS OF THE WORKWK. HIGH TEMPS XPCTD TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S. DURG THE DAY PCPN CHCS WL BE INCRSG FM W TO E.
SVR THREAT WL RMN LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SECONDARY PUSH DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. A FEATURE THIS STRONG MOVING THIS
FAR SOUTH NEARLY ALWAYS WILL TAP INTO AMPLE GULF MOISTURE. FROM LATE
WED INTO THU...THE UPPER VORT MAX WILL SLIDING OVER THE OZARKS INTO
THE MID MS VLY...W/ A LARGE SECTION OF THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER BUILDING
AREAS OF PRECIP. INITIALLY POORLY ORGANIZED AS THE DYNAMICS ARE
SETTING UP...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE UP THE
SRN/CNTRL APLCNS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS THU. THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...W/ ONLY A FEW HANDFULS OF WEAK AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU...STARTING TO
MIX-OUT THE WEDGE OVER NERN MD/DC METRO AREA FROM WED. THE FRONT
WILL NEED TO MOVE THRU FOR ANY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE DC/BALT METRO AND I-95 CORRIDOR. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST FOR
THE REGION ON THU...BUT THAT WON`T PREVENT SFC TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN L80S BY MID AFTN. S-SELY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY INTO THE 15-25MPH RANGE AND EVEN GUSTIER THRU THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD THE OTHER ELEMENT
OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL - WHEREAS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
THROUGHOUT THE BUILD-UP AND PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.
FROM LATE THU INTO MIDDAY FRI...WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ADD THE ELEMENT OF MIXING
DOWN ISOLATED GUSTY TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS - ESPEC ON FRI AFTN.
THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS FLOODING FROM THE 1-3 INCHES OF EXPECTED
QPF...LOCALLY HIGHER. THE SFC SYSTEM NOT QUITE IN CONSENSUS AMONGST
THE MED RANGE MEMBERS...BUT A TREND TOWARD THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK NEAR THE AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI. THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER OF THE SFC LOWS WILL DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. THE MORE OF OUR AREA THAT IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW - THE BETTER THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
CONVECTION. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW IS RELATIVE TO OUR
REGION...THE MORE GENERAL STRATIFORM AND MAINLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH POWERING THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A NEGATIVE
TILT LATE FRI...ADDING MORE POTENCY TO THE OVERALL SYSTEM BUT ALSO
ACCELERATING THE MOISTURE AXIS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS THE WAVE OF
SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP.
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING DOWN FROM SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AROUND WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...KEEPING OUR
AREA QUITE COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. THE "WEATHER" FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY...EVEN THOUGH AVG TEMPS
FOR MID-MAY ARE IN THE M70S. A SLOW MOVING AND COLD UPPER LOW TAKING
A FEW DAYS TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP US IN THIS PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO 80 DEG OR MORE...BASED ON THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR THRU SUNSET. HOWEVER WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN/EVE...LOCAL/BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE TO SEE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN
VC OF MRB. WINDS BECOME ELY LATE TDA INTO TNGT BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO MOVE IN BETWEEN
03-06Z BWI/MTN/DCA AND POSSIBLY BETWEEN 06-10Z AT IAD/MRB. PATCHY
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE BUT GNRLY MAY IS NOT A BIG FOG MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
CNVCTN WL AGN BE PSBL WED AHD OF A CD FNT CURRENTLY TRIGGERING
TSTMS FM WI TO NRN MEX. THIS WL BECOME A BIGGER PLAYER FOR E CST
AVIATION THU AND FRI.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI. MAINLY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
CONCERN...W/ BREEZY SFC WINDS BUT EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW - A
GOOD 30-50KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW LATE THU
INTO EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE PRECIP AND ANY EMBEDDED
TSTMS OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRI...W/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING
USHERED IN FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BUILD SWWD TOWARD THE
WATERS THIS AFTN AND TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING FROM THE
EAST DURING THIS TIME. HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE CHSPK BAY ZONES
AND LWR SRN MD FOR THIS EVE. A 2-4 HR PRESSURE SURGE HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THIS EVE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NEW ENGLAND/NJ HAVE SHOWED THIS
HAPPENING IN WAKE OF FROPA.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FROM WED INTO THU...SPREADING PRECIP ALONG THE APLCNS BUT KEEPING
THE BAY/COAST RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATE THU. SFC WINDS HOWEVER WILL
START PUSHING WELL INTO SCA RANGE FROM EARLY THU ONWARD...UNTIL THE
EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI EVE. GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY...ALONG W/ THE PASSAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM LATE THU INTO FRI
EVE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A LIGHT W/NW BREEZE THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL SITES CURRENTLY NEAR ASTRONOMICAL TIDE ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF THE CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE NGT AND WED AS THE ARRIVAL
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MARKS THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THESE POSITIVE
ANOMALIES INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALREADY BE HIGH WITH A
FULL MOON THIS WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRK
PREV DISC...WOODY!/GMS/JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A LARGER COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN TO TEXAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WE ARE WATCHING THE TRW PRSNTLY IN THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH THERE WASN`T MUCH FOG THIS EVE DUE TO THE MON RA FOLLOWED
BY CLR SKIES...OVRNGT THAT WHICH WAS THERE HAS BEEN PATCHY AT BEST.
SUNRISE IS NOW OCCURRING B4 6 AM...SO THERE ISN`T A LOT OF TIME
LEFT FOR NOCTURNAL FOG TO DVLP. SUN WL RISE B4 6 AM HERE UNTIL
JUL 22.
SYNOPTIC STIUATION IS INTERESTING - LOW PRES OVR WI W/ A CD FNT
WHICH XTNDS ALL THE WAY TO NRN MEX. A WARM FNT XTNDS INTO SRN
QUEBEC...W/ A CD FNT STRETCHING FM THAT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT 2
AM TEMPS ARE FALLING IN NEW ENGLAND QUITE QUICKLY AS THE BACKDOOR
FNT TRACKS SWD - BOS DROPPED FM 74 TO 55 IN ONE HR WHEN WINDS
SHIFTED FM W TO NE. ORH...FURTHER INLAND..XPRNCD A SIMILAR DROP.
THE BACKDOOR FNT IS XPCTD TO MAKE IT THRU NYC THIS MRNG...AND ONTO
THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN. QUSTN THEN BECOMES HOW FAR W WL THE FNT
MAKE IT? HRRR SHOWS AN ERLY WIND SURGE ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE CHES
BAY BY ERLY AFTN...WHILE THE 00Z ECM AND GFS SHOW A LATER ARRIVAL
TIME. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT THIS COULD LEAD TO A WIDER DISPARITY
IN AFTN TEMPS...W/ THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY REACHING THE U80S AND THE
LAND AGAINST BAY ONLY GETTING TO THE L80S...AND PSBLY FALLING INTO
THE 70S BY LATE AFTN.
GIVEN THE AMPLE LO LVL MOISTURE AND XPCTD SFC HTG RW/TRW ARE PSBL
THIS AFTN...AND A BACKDOOR FNT WOULD PROVIDE A BNDRY FOR FORMATION. AS W/
YDA THERE WL BE CAPE ABV 1000 THIS AFTN BUT UPR LVL WIND FIELD IS
MICROSPCOPIC. PULSE STORMS WOULD BE THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AND IT APPEARS THAT BACKDOOR FNT WL AT BEST MAKE IT INTO THE NERN
CORNER OF THE CWA OVRNGT B4 BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE N WED AHD OF
THE MORE PROMINENT APRCHG SYSTEM FM THE W. LINGERING CHC POPS THIS
EVE B4 A NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 60S. PTCHY FG WL BE PSBL BUT AGN THIS
IS NOT XPCTD TO BE WIDESPREAD.
BY WED THE UPR RDG WL BE MOVG OFF THE CST AND CLDS WL BE INCRSG
HERALDING THE APRCH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WL BE CONTROLLING THE AREA
WX FOR THE FINAL 2 DAYS OF THE WORKWK. HIGH TEMPS XPCTD TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 70S. DURG THE DAY PCPN CHCS WL BE INCRSG FM W TO E.
SVR THREAT WL RMN LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SECONDARY PUSH DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. A FEATURE THIS STRONG MOVING THIS
FAR SOUTH NEARLY ALWAYS WILL TAP INTO AMPLE GULF MOISTURE. FROM LATE
WED INTO THU...THE UPPER VORT MAX WILL SLIDING OVER THE OZARKS INTO
THE MID MS VLY...W/ A LARGE SECTION OF THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER BUILDING
AREAS OF PRECIP. INITIALLY POORLY ORGANIZED AS THE DYNAMICS ARE
SETTING UP...WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE UP THE
SRN/CNTRL APLCNS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS THU. THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...W/ ONLY A FEW HANDFULS OF WEAK AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU...STARTING TO
MIX-OUT THE WEDGE OVER NERN MD/DC METRO AREA FROM WED. THE FRONT
WILL NEED TO MOVE THRU FOR ANY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE DC/BALT METRO AND I-95 CORRIDOR. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST FOR
THE REGION ON THU...BUT THAT WON`T PREVENT SFC TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN L80S BY MID AFTN. S-SELY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY INTO THE 15-25MPH RANGE AND EVEN GUSTIER THRU THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD THE OTHER ELEMENT
OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL - WHEREAS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
THROUGHOUT THE BUILD-UP AND PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.
FROM LATE THU INTO MIDDAY FRI...WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ADD THE ELEMENT OF MIXING
DOWN ISOLATED GUSTY TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS - ESPEC ON FRI AFTN.
THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS FLOODING FROM THE 1-3 INCHES OF EXPECTED
QPF...LOCALLY HIGHER. THE SFC SYSTEM NOT QUITE IN CONSENSUS AMONGST
THE MED RANGE MEMBERS...BUT A TREND TOWARD THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK NEAR THE AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI. THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER OF THE SFC LOWS WILL DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. THE MORE OF OUR AREA THAT IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW - THE BETTER THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
CONVECTION. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW IS RELATIVE TO OUR
REGION...THE MORE GENERAL STRATIFORM AND MAINLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH POWERING THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A NEGATIVE
TILT LATE FRI...ADDING MORE POTENCY TO THE OVERALL SYSTEM BUT ALSO
ACCELERATING THE MOISTURE AXIS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS THE WAVE OF
SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP.
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING DOWN FROM SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AROUND WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...KEEPING OUR
AREA QUITE COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. THE "WEATHER" FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY...EVEN THOUGH AVG TEMPS
FOR MID-MAY ARE IN THE M70S. A SLOW MOVING AND COLD UPPER LOW TAKING
A FEW DAYS TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP US IN THIS PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO 80 DEG OR MORE...BASED ON THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD HV VFR CONDS. 2 CONCERNS WL BE
AFTN/EVE TSTMS...ALTHO SVR THREAT WL BE LOW...AND THEN PSBLTY OF
PTCHY FOG AT IAD/MRB/CHO AFTR MDNGT. GNRLY MAY IS NOT A BIG FOG
MONTH CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
CNVCTN WL AGN BE PSBL WED AHD OF A CD FNT CURRENTLY TRIGGERING
TSTMS FM WI TO NRN MEX. THIS WL BECOME A BIGGER PLAYER FOR E CST
AVIATION THU AND FRI.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI. MAINLY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
CONCERN...W/ BREEZY SFC WINDS BUT EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW - A
GOOD 30-50KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW LATE THU
INTO EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE PRECIP AND ANY EMBEDDED
TSTMS OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRI...W/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING
USHERED IN FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BUILD SWWD TOWARD THE
WATERS THIS AFTN AND TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING FROM THE
EAST DURING THIS TIME. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD WITHOUT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR CHANNELING. WINDS BCMG
SRLY WED AHD OF THE LARGER CD FNT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FROM WED INTO THU...SPREADING PRECIP ALONG THE APLCNS BUT KEEPING
THE BAY/COAST RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATE THU. SFC WINDS HOWEVER WILL
START PUSHING WELL INTO SCA RANGE FROM EARLY THU ONWARD...UNTIL THE
EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI EVE. GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UP THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY...ALONG W/ THE PASSAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM LATE THU INTO FRI
EVE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A LIGHT W/NW BREEZE THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL SITES CURRENTLY NEAR ASTRONOMICAL TIDE ALONG THE WRN SHORE
OF THE CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE NGT AND WED AS THE ARRIVAL
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MARKS THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THESE POSITIVE
ANOMALIES INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALREADY BE HIGH WITH A
FULL MOON THIS WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS/JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
446 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ANOTHER
STRETCHING FM QUEBEC THRU THE SE CONUS. THE INTERACTION BTWN A
SHRTWV RIDING NNEWD IN THE STRONG SSW FLOW ALF TO THE E OF THE TROF
AXIS AND RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT
MID LVL DRYING UNDER THE JET SURGE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV LIFTING THRU NW
ONTARIO IS BRINGING DRY WX TO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOWER CLD IS LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WRN CWA WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR BLO SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRNS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS BEING ADVECTED TO THE E IN GUSTY SFC
W FLOW TO THE S OF DEPARTING SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS/
IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR...INCRSG ACYC NATURE OF THE
LLVL FLOW WITH CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE CLRG OF THE LO CLD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT...THE GUSTY
W WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG. UPSTREAM LO TEMPS THIS MRNG AND MOS
FCSTS INDICATE MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE 30S AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO
BTWN 0 AND -2C BY 12Z WED.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG/LLVL ACYC FLOW WL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS/DRY
WX AS PWAT FALLS TO 0.25-0.50 INCH. EXPECT SOME SC TO DVLP AWAY FM
THE STABILIZING/COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING CHILLY H85 TEMPS. THERE WL BE
SOME INCRS IN HI CLDS OVER AT LEAST THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING NE OUT OF THE BASE OF DEEP TROF IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LKS. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS YIELD MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S AWAY FM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW
DEWPTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 20S/MIN RH TO FALL TOWARD 25 PCT...
FAIRLY LGT WINDS/MOIST GROUND WL LIMIT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE
AREAS IS DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE AT 500MB. THE 500MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN BY 06Z THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM AROUND 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND THEN SHIFT OFF ACROSS LAKE
HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS THIS PERIOD WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP /RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS/ FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AN OVERALL DRIER SOLUTION HAS BEEN COMING IN WITH THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 12Z THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS...AND THE
SFC LOW SURGING N ACROSS OH AND E MI. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FARTHEST W OFF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING A
WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE COOL N-NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6C. THE WETTEST SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE 18Z
NAM CAME IN WITH 0.25IN OF LIQUID OVER E UPPER MI /MAINLY E OF
MUNISING/ FROM 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY/. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A
DRIER SCENARIO FOR NOW...BUT KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS ONE...AS A LOT
CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE SFC LOW
TO EXIT INTO SW QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS...SLOWED
TREND TO VFR A BIT. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THAT MAINTAINS GUSTY
W WINDS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL 3 SITES THIS AFTN...
SLOWEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WITH STRONGER...MOST
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS WL PREVAIL INTO WED WITH DRY HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
EXPECT W WINDS UP TO 30 KKTS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING
NEWD THRU ONTARIO...STRONGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE TERRAIN
FUNNELS THIS FLOW BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE...TO DIMINISH
TO UNDER 20-25 KTS TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT CLOSER TO APPROACHING HI PRES. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN UNDER
25 KTS THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT N
WINDS ON THU INTO FRI MAY REACH 25-30 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IF A LO PRES SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE W. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF 0.10IN OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE E
THIRD OF UPPER MI. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS RIVER WISE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. THEY INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL...WHICH IS
SLOWLY FALLING...AND THE MICHIGAMME AT REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND
CRYSTAL FALLS...WHICH LOOK TO HAVE ALL CRESTED AS WELL AND ARE SLOWLY
ON THEIR WAY DOWN. RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ANOTHER
STRETCHING FM QUEBEC THRU THE SE CONUS. THE INTERACTION BTWN A
SHRTWV RIDING NNEWD IN THE STRONG SSW FLOW ALF TO THE E OF THE TROF
AXIS AND RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT
MID LVL DRYING UNDER THE JET SURGE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV LIFTING THRU NW
ONTARIO IS BRINGING DRY WX TO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOWER CLD IS LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WRN CWA WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR BLO SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRNS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS BEING ADVECTED TO THE E IN GUSTY SFC
W FLOW TO THE S OF DEPARTING SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON LO CLD TRENDS/
IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR...INCRSG ACYC NATURE OF THE
LLVL FLOW WITH CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE CLRG OF THE LO CLD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT...THE GUSTY
W WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG. UPSTREAM LO TEMPS THIS MRNG AND MOS
FCSTS INDICATE MIN TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE 30S AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO
BTWN 0 AND -2C BY 12Z WED.
WED...SFC HI PRES RDG/LLVL ACYC FLOW WL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS/DRY
WX AS PWAT FALLS TO 0.25-0.50 INCH. EXPECT SOME SC TO DVLP AWAY FM
THE STABILIZING/COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING CHILLY H85 TEMPS. THERE WL BE
SOME INCRS IN HI CLDS OVER AT LEAST THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING NE OUT OF THE BASE OF DEEP TROF IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LKS. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS YIELD MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S AWAY FM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW
DEWPTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 20S/MIN RH TO FALL TOWARD 25 PCT...
FAIRLY LGT WINDS/MOIST GROUND WL LIMIT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ONLY DEEPEN FURTHER
BY LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN /THOUGH FRIDAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN/...BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL INTO AT
LEAST FIRST PART OF WEEKEND. AND STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND FRIDAY THOUGH THE MODEL LEADING THE
CHARGE ON THAT IDEA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM THAT IDEA WITH MOST RECENT MODEL RUN...AS HAS THE GEM-NH
AND THE UKMET WHICH WAS TRACKING ALONG WITH THE ECMWF FOR A WHILE
NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS A TREND OR A TEMPORARY SHIFT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET. SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO RESULT IN LAKE
BREEZES. FORCING WEAKER THAN IT LOOKED 24 HR AGO AND MOISTURE RATHER
PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BUILD UP OF HIGHER BASED CU...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. DWPTS START DAY AROUND 30F AND MIXED LAYER DWPNT OUTPUT
POINTED TO AROUND 20 FOR INTERIOR WEST BY MID AFTN. PRETTY FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MIXING. FOR NOW DROPPED DWPNTS INTO LOW-MID 20S
WHICH RESULTS IN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. FIRE WX ISSUES WILL BE
MITIGATED BY RECENT RAINFALL AND SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURES CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING
NORTH GRADIENT FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEEPENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAJORITY OF CWA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE SECONDARY JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RESULT IS TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILTED THEN CLOSING OFF BY FRIDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT HOLDS THE KEY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FORECAST. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE THE MOST WRAPPED UP
AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS MOSTLY
HAS STAYED PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW...LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES INSTEAD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LATEST ECMWF/UKMET/GEM-NH GOING THAT WAY TOO. SEEMS THAT ECMWF HAS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAN WAS THERE PERVIOUSLY.
THIS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGH STAYING MORE OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH KEEPS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES FROM THE
GEM STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER WEST SFC LOW...
SO THAT IDEA MAY NOT BE DONE JUST YET.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO GO BACK TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IDEA INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW...BOOSTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL KEPT
TEMPS CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE BKN-OVC SKIES WITH NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR...EVEN WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO PUT A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT SINCE THE MODEL
THAT WAS SHOWING THIS MOST PERSISTENTLY BACKED AWAY...WILL NOT PUT
THAT MENTION IN THERE AFTER ALL. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH
TO SAY THAT WILL BE FINE WITH MOST PEOPLE THAT ARE TRYING TO PUT THIS
LONG COLD WINTER...AND EARLY SPRING...BEHIND THEM.
TROUGHING GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD STILL
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL...WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS MAY REACH MID TO
UPR 60S INLAND WEST WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS...SLOWED
TREND TO VFR A BIT. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THAT MAINTAINS GUSTY
W WINDS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL 3 SITES THIS AFTN...
SLOWEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WITH STRONGER...MOST
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS WL PREVAIL INTO WED WITH DRY HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
EXPECT W WINDS UP TO 30 KKTS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING
NEWD THRU ONTARIO...STRONGEST OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE TERRAIN
FUNNELS THIS FLOW BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE...TO DIMINISH
TO UNDER 20-25 KTS TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT CLOSER TO APPROACHING HI PRES. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN UNDER
25 KTS THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT N
WINDS ON THU INTO FRI MAY REACH 25-30 KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IF A LO PRES SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE W. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF 0.10IN OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE E
THIRD OF UPPER MI. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS RIVER WISE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. THEY INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL...WHICH IS
SLOWLY FALLING...AND THE MICHIGAMME AT REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND
CRYSTAL FALLS...WHICH LOOK TO HAVE ALL CRESTED AS WELL AND ARE SLOWLY
ON THEIR WAY DOWN. RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED TROF
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
THRU NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LINGERING IN THE
BASE OF THE TROF OVER NM/CO. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS
WITH OTHER NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO...SFC LOW PRES WAS TRACKING N
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SWEEPING INTO WRN UPPER
MI WHILE SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL HELD UP S OF UPPER MI.
FORTUNATELY...LITTLE PCPN HAS FALLEN SINCE SHRA MOVED THRU THE FCST
AREA YESTERDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL HELP EASE RISES ON
RIVERS THAT HAVE HIGH FLOWS.
AS OCCLUDED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...
WILL MAINTAIN A SHRA CHC ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY YET BE SOME
THUNDER OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...BUT POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL LIFT
QUICKLY WITH FROPA. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THAT HEALTHY CAA
WILL AID GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW UNDER
FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION. GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 40KT
AT TIMES THERE.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT UNDER DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ONLY DEEPEN FURTHER
BY LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN /THOUGH FRIDAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN/...BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL INTO AT
LEAST FIRST PART OF WEEKEND. AND STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND FRIDAY THOUGH THE MODEL LEADING THE
CHARGE ON THAT IDEA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM THAT IDEA WITH MOST RECENT MODEL RUN...AS HAS THE GEM-NH
AND THE UKMET WHICH WAS TRACKING ALONG WITH THE ECMWF FOR A WHILE
NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS A TREND OR A TEMPORARY SHIFT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET. SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO RESULT IN LAKE
BREEZES. FORCING WEAKER THAN IT LOOKED 24 HR AGO AND MOISTURE RATHER
PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BUILD UP OF HIGHER BASED CU...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. DWPTS START DAY AROUND 30F AND MIXED LAYER DWPNT OUTPUT
POINTED TO AROUND 20 FOR INTERIOR WEST BY MID AFTN. PRETTY FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MIXING. FOR NOW DROPPED DWPNTS INTO LOW-MID 20S
WHICH RESULTS IN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. FIRE WX ISSUES WILL BE
MITIGATED BY RECENT RAINFALL AND SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURES CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING
NORTH GRADIENT FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEEPENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAJORITY OF CWA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE SECONDARY JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RESULT IS TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILTED THEN CLOSING OFF BY FRIDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT HOLDS THE KEY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FORECAST. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE THE MOST WRAPPED UP
AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS MOSTLY
HAS STAYED PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW...LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES INSTEAD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LATEST ECMWF/UKMET/GEM-NH GOING THAT WAY TOO. SEEMS THAT ECMWF HAS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAN WAS THERE PERVIOUSLY.
THIS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGH STAYING MORE OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH KEEPS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES FROM THE
GEM STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER WEST SFC LOW...
SO THAT IDEA MAY NOT BE DONE JUST YET.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO GO BACK TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IDEA INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW...BOOSTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL KEPT
TEMPS CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE BKN-OVC SKIES WITH NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR...EVEN WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO PUT A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT SINCE THE MODEL
THAT WAS SHOWING THIS MOST PERSISTENTLY BACKED AWAY...WILL NOT PUT
THAT MENTION IN THERE AFTER ALL. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH
TO SAY THAT WILL BE FINE WITH MOST PEOPLE THAT ARE TRYING TO PUT THIS
LONG COLD WINTER...AND EARLY SPRING...BEHIND THEM.
TROUGHING GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD STILL
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL...WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS MAY REACH MID TO
UPR 60S INLAND WEST WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS...SLOWED
TREND TO VFR A BIT. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THAT MAINTAINS GUSTY
W WINDS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL 3 SITES THIS AFTN...
SLOWEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WITH STRONGER...MOST
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS WL PREVAIL INTO WED WITH DRY HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. WEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON COULD REACH 30 KTS OVER PORTIONS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE BLO 20 KTS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY REACH 30 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF 0.10IN OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE E
THIRD OF UPPER MI. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
W HALF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS RIVER WISE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. THEY INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL...WHICH IS
SLOWLY FALLING...AND THE MICHIGAMME AT REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND
CRYSTAL FALLS...WHICH LOOK TO HAVE ALL CRESTED AS WELL AND ARE SLOWLY
ON THEIR WAY DOWN. RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DIMINISHING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WET WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP EXISTS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON PRIMARY EAST OF I-69
INCLUDING JXN.
THE FIRST SIGN OF NEW/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STARTING
TO SHOW UP AS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS OVER INDIANA AROUND KLAF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT HEADS NE TOWARD
JXN INTO AN AREA OF SUNSHINE WITH SB CAPES ALREADY AROUND 1500
J/KG. THE LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWFA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WAS CROSSING LK MI AT MID MORNING
AND THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE HAS IT CLEARING THE CWFA BY 20Z WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SFC DEW
PTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON AROUND JACKSON TO LANSING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. THUS THOSE LOCATIONS STAND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.
THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE STRONG...GIVEN MU CAPES OVER
1500 J/KG...BUT THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK. THE MAIN RISKS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH TORNADOES A
LESS RISK. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
INCREASED POPS FOR WED NIGHT. DECENT LOOKING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS UP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COUPLED UPPER JET WILL HAVE
GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH PROVIDING WIDESPREAD RAIN. I INCREASED
POPS CONSIDERABLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL END UP WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
NEAR A AMN-AZO LINE AS OF 17Z. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
STILL BE THE RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT AND THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF LAN AND JXN BY 22-23Z.
MOSTLY MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
SOME PATCHY IFR SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE I-94 TAF SITES BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY 06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...
ALONG THE I-96 TAF SITES AROUND 04-06Z...AND TO THE I-94 SITES
08-10Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MARINE WEB CAMS THIS MORNING REVEAL DENSE FOG AT HOLLAND... GRAND
HAVEN AND MKG. NOT QUITE SURE HOW EXTENSIVE THE DENSE FOG IS SINCE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MASKING THE STRATUS ON VSBL SATELLITE. CONSIDERED
A MARINE FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF AND JUST CARRY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOON LEADING TO LOWERING SFC DEW PTS WHICH SHOULD HELP
IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AT THE LAKESHORE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL
TOP 1.5 INCHES TODAY AND POSSIBLY WED NIGHT. LCLS WILL BE LOW
TODAY...AND COULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER
AN INCH ARE LIKELY TODAY. AS FOR WIDESPREAD VALUES OVER 2
INCHES...A SMALL RISK EXISTS...BUT CURRENTLY THAT RISK LOOKS LOWS.
AM THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN WED
NIGHT GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
CONTAIN GULF MOISTURE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
EXISTING UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF CONVECTION
IMPACTING MBS AND FNT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPANDING INTO PTK/DTW 20-21Z. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WELL INTO
THE EVENING. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUPPORT AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR PERIOD OF IFR
DURING THIS TIME.
FOR DTW...CURRENT TRENDS UPSTREAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CENTER BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WIND
SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT AROUND 02Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRPORT THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
UPDATE...
RECENT PRESENTATION OF WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY AND TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS LEAVE EXPECTATIONS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR A WINDOW FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOME LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION SOUTHEAST OF AN OWOSSO TO BAD AXE LINE
NETTING A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT TO ADDRESS THIS WITH READINGS NOW EXPECTED TO LAND SOLIDLY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR. MODIFIED PARCEL
TAKEN WITH A T/TD OF 83/67 YIELDS SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1500-1800 J/KG BY 18-20Z. UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF THIS MODIFYING
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY LOOKING SUPPORTIVE OF
MORE SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. RECENT RUC ANALYSIS PAIRED WITH
WATER VAPOR AND LATEST HI RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TEND TO ANCHOR ON SOME COMBINATION OF AN INBOUND
REMNANT MCV/PERTURBATION NOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKANSAS/
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND A LEAD PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH
MAY BE HELPING SUSTAIN THE LIGHT RETURNS AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CURRENTLY STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI INTO THE TRI-CITIES
AT THE MOMENT. THE DEEP LAYER LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD
WILL BE IMPROVING WITH TIME...A NOTED UPTICK WITHIN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON SEEMINGLY SUPPLYING ADEQUATE ENOUGH SHEAR
TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THIS MODULATING PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD AT THE VERY LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
FOR A GREATER COVERAGE IN LIGHT OF ERODING CONCERNS OVER POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POTENTIAL ISSUE
GIVEN THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES...PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AS THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SLOPE
SLOWS WITH TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS OF 07Z...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE TRI
CITIES AND BAD AXE AND IS NOW HUGGING THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE...WHERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PROVEN A FORMIDABLE OBSTACLE
IN THE NORTHEAST PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT. SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING UP THROUGH MINNESOTA.
DESPITE THE STEADY STATE NATURE OF THE LONG WAVE TOUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...THE SFC COLD
FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CNTL WI AND WRN IL/ WILL BE DRIVEN
ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NORTH. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WILL HOLD THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY PUSHING IT
OFFSHORE OF THE THUMB.
EXTENSIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY HAVE LED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. A PAIR OF THESE MCVS NOW
STRETCHING FROM IL TO CNTRL LAKE MI WILL TRACK ACROSS WRN AND CNRL
LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO PECULATE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
INFILTRATE AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SE MI FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY
/PERHAPS SOME LOW 80S OVER THE EAST/ EVEN WITH SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS. ASSUMING AFTERNOON TEMPS REACH UPPER 70S
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...SB CAPE SHOULD REACH 1500
J/KG. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE /STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARD/. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS LOW CAPE DENSITY
ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY SEEM TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE
INCLUSION OF SE MI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE RATHER GOOD DENSITY GRADIENT ALONG THE SFC COLD
FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STILL PROVE EFFICIENT IN
PROVIDING A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PRECIP WATER AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND FAIRLY HIGH DEEP
LAYER MEAN RH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT DUE TO THE MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT
COULD AGAIN POSE SOME LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING.
WHILE THE SFC FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY
03Z...GOOD FGEN WITHIN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
THE LONGWAVE NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WILL UNDERGO FURTHER PHASING/CONSOLATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV AS
SOUTHERN ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...LEADING TO
DEEPENING AND CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY.
ABUNDANT RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE...BOTH PACIFIED AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SURGING NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN...ALLOWING RAIN TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...AS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH/OR CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PER 00Z NAM...EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD...COUPLED WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE (850 MB DEW PTS OF 10+
C...700 MB DEW PTS UP AROUND 2 C)...MODEST INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER
INDEX DROPPING TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BY THURSDAY
MORNING)...WILL RESULT IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL/ALREADY SOAKED GROUND/ELEVATED RIVERS. TROUGH AXIS
POTENTIALLY GOING NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT MAY PROLONG THE
RAIN A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO HAS COME IN MUCH WEAKER
LOW/SOLUTION THAN ITS 12Z RUN...AND THUS SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF RAIN
OCCURRING BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TAKES HOLD
ON THURSDAY.
DRYING OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY...AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO FOR FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COLDER
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SUFFICIENT FOR CU UP AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE.
MARINE...
WARM AND MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF LAKE HURON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TODAY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS THEY GRADUALLY VEER FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS A LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARO. FUNNELING THROUGH SAGINAW BAY COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-LHZ462-
LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LHZ362...UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LHZ361...UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED TROF
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
THRU NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LINGERING IN THE
BASE OF THE TROF OVER NM/CO. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS
WITH OTHER NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO...SFC LOW PRES WAS TRACKING N
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SWEEPING INTO WRN UPPER
MI WHILE SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL HELD UP S OF UPPER MI.
FORTUNATELY...LITTLE PCPN HAS FALLEN SINCE SHRA MOVED THRU THE FCST
AREA YESTERDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL HELP EASE RISES ON
RIVERS THAT HAVE HIGH FLOWS.
AS OCCLUDED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...
WILL MAINTAIN A SHRA CHC ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY YET BE SOME
THUNDER OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...BUT POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL LIFT
QUICKLY WITH FROPA. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THAT HEALTHY CAA
WILL AID GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW UNDER
FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION. GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 40KT
AT TIMES THERE.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT UNDER DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ONLY DEEPEN FURTHER
BY LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN /THOUGH FRIDAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN/...BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL INTO AT
LEAST FIRST PART OF WEEKEND. AND STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND FRIDAY THOUGH THE MODEL LEADING THE
CHARGE ON THAT IDEA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM THAT IDEA WITH MOST RECENT MODEL RUN...AS HAS THE GEM-NH
AND THE UKMET WHICH WAS TRACKING ALONG WITH THE ECMWF FOR A WHILE
NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS A TREND OR A TEMPORARY SHIFT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET. SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO RESULT IN LAKE
BREEZES. FORCING WEAKER THAN IT LOOKED 24 HR AGO AND MOISTURE RATHER
PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BUILD UP OF HIGHER BASED CU...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. DWPTS START DAY AROUND 30F AND MIXED LAYER DWPNT OUTPUT
POINTED TO AROUND 20 FOR INTERIOR WEST BY MID AFTN. PRETTY FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MIXING. FOR NOW DROPPED DWPNTS INTO LOW-MID 20S
WHICH RESULTS IN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. FIRE WX ISSUES WILL BE
MITIGATED BY RECENT RAINFALL AND SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURES CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING
NORTH GRADIENT FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEEPENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAJORITY OF CWA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE SECONDARY JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RESULT IS TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILTED THEN CLOSING OFF BY FRIDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT HOLDS THE KEY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FORECAST. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE THE MOST WRAPPED UP
AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS MOSTLY
HAS STAYED PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW...LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES INSTEAD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LATEST ECMWF/UKMET/GEM-NH GOING THAT WAY TOO. SEEMS THAT ECMWF HAS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAN WAS THERE PERVIOUSLY.
THIS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGH STAYING MORE OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH KEEPS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES FROM THE
GEM STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER WEST SFC LOW...
SO THAT IDEA MAY NOT BE DONE JUST YET.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO GO BACK TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IDEA INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW...BOOSTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL KEPT
TEMPS CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE BKN-OVC SKIES WITH NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR...EVEN WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO PUT A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT SINCE THE MODEL
THAT WAS SHOWING THIS MOST PERSISTENTLY BACKED AWAY...WILL NOT PUT
THAT MENTION IN THERE AFTER ALL. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH
TO SAY THAT WILL BE FINE WITH MOST PEOPLE THAT ARE TRYING TO PUT THIS
LONG COLD WINTER...AND EARLY SPRING...BEHIND THEM.
TROUGHING GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD STILL
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL...WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS MAY REACH MID TO
UPR 60S INLAND WEST WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS...SLOWED
TREND TO VFR A BIT. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THAT MAINTAINS GUSTY
W WINDS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL 3 SITES THIS AFTN...
SLOWEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WITH STRONGER...MOST
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS WL PREVAIL INTO WED WITH DRY HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. WEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON COULD REACH 30 KTS OVER PORTIONS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE BLO 20 KTS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY REACH 30 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ENDED UP LESS THAN EXPECTED
WHICH IS RESULTING IN LESSER OVERALL RISE ON RIVERS THAN COULD HAVE
OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DATA IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
RESULTS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND FOR THE MICHIGAMME
RIVER NEAR REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND TO THE EAST OF CRYSTAL FALLS
JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WAY DAM AND HEMLOCK FALLS. SINCE NOT AS MUCH
RAIN OCCURRED OVER STURGEON RIVER BASIN IN BARAGA COUNTY THE LAST
SHIFT COORDINATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS AND REPLACED THE WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON WITH AN ADVISORY.
DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT DID OCCUR AND ONGOING SNOWMELT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DIMINISHING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WET WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP EXISTS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON PRIMARY EAST OF I-69
INCLUDING JXN.
THE FIRST SIGN OF NEW/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STARTING
TO SHOW UP AS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS OVER INDIANA AROUND KLAF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT HEADS NE TOWARD
JXN INTO AN AREA OF SUNSHINE WITH SB CAPES ALREADY AROUND 1500
J/KG. THE LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWFA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WAS CROSSING LK MI AT MID MORNING
AND THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE HAS IT CLEARING THE CWFA BY 20Z WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SFC DEW
PTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON AROUND JACKSON TO LANSING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. THUS THOSE LOCATIONS STAND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.
THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE STRONG...GIVEN MU CAPES OVER
1500 J/KG...BUT THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK. THE MAIN RISKS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH TORNADOES A
LESS RISK. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
INCREASED POPS FOR WED NIGHT. DECENT LOOKING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS UP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COUPLED UPPER JET WILL HAVE
GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH PROVIDING WIDESPREAD RAIN. I INCREASED
POPS CONSIDERABLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL END UP WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING
AS FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL DRAW SOME OF
THESE LOWER CLOUDS INLAND...IMPACTING WESTERN TAF SITES. RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY HAVE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT MAINLY INLAND TAF SITES AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. VFR WEATHER RETURNS BY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MARINE WEB CAMS THIS MORNING REVEAL DENSE FOG AT HOLLAND... GRAND
HAVEN AND MKG. NOT QUITE SURE HOW EXTENSIVE THE DENSE FOG IS SINCE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MASKING THE STRATUS ON VSBL SATELLITE. CONSIDERED
A MARINE FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF AND JUST CARRY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOON LEADING TO LOWERING SFC DEW PTS WHICH SHOULD HELP
IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AT THE LAKESHORE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
HEAVY RAIN IS A RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL
TOP 1.5 INCHES TODAY AND POSSIBLY WED NIGHT. LCLS WILL BE LOW
TODAY...AND COULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER
AN INCH ARE LIKELY TODAY. AS FOR WIDESPREAD VALUES OVER 2
INCHES...A SMALL RISK EXISTS...BUT CURRENTLY THAT RISK LOOKS LOWS.
AM THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN WED
NIGHT GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
CONTAIN GULF MOISTURE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
RECENT PRESENTATION OF WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY AND TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS LEAVE EXPECTATIONS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR A WINDOW FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOME LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION SOUTHEAST OF AN OWOSSO TO BAD AXE LINE
NETTING A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT TO ADDRESS THIS WITH READINGS NOW EXPECTED TO LAND SOLIDLY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR. MODIFIED PARCEL
TAKEN WITH A T/TD OF 83/67 YIELDS SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1500-1800 J/KG BY 18-20Z. UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF THIS MODIFYING
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY LOOKING SUPPORTIVE OF
MORE SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. RECENT RUC ANALYSIS PAIRED WITH
WATER VAPOR AND LATEST HI RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TEND TO ANCHOR ON SOME COMBINATION OF AN INBOUND
REMNANT MCV/PERTURBATION NOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKANSAS/
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND A LEAD PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH
MAY BE HELPING SUSTAIN THE LIGHT RETURNS AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CURRENTLY STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI INTO THE TRI-CITIES
AT THE MOMENT. THE DEEP LAYER LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD
WILL BE IMPROVING WITH TIME...A NOTED UPTICK WITHIN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON SEEMINGLY SUPPLYING ADEQUATE ENOUGH SHEAR
TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THIS MODULATING PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD AT THE VERY LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
FOR A GREATER COVERAGE IN LIGHT OF ERODING CONCERNS OVER POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POTENTIAL ISSUE
GIVEN THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES...PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AS THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SLOPE
SLOWS WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 700 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
//DISCUSSION...
BUILDING INSTABILITY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SE MI TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD.
SHALLOW POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WHICH MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE EXPECTATION FOR A LARGE
AREA OF POST FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTENING THE LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT.
FOR DTW...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD OVER METRO DETROIT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATER TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH METRO
/00-02Z/...THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRPORT THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS OF 07Z...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE TRI
CITIES AND BAD AXE AND IS NOW HUGGING THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE...WHERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PROVEN A FORMIDABLE OBSTACLE
IN THE NORTHEAST PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT. SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING UP THROUGH MINNESOTA.
DESPITE THE STEADY STATE NATURE OF THE LONG WAVE TOUGH OVER THE
PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...THE SFC COLD
FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CNTL WI AND WRN IL/ WILL BE DRIVEN
ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NORTH. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WILL HOLD THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY PUSHING IT
OFFSHORE OF THE THUMB.
EXTENSIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY HAVE LED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. A PAIR OF THESE MCVS NOW
STRETCHING FROM IL TO CNTRL LAKE MI WILL TRACK ACROSS WRN AND CNRL
LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO PECULATE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
INFILTRATE AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SE MI FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY
/PERHAPS SOME LOW 80S OVER THE EAST/ EVEN WITH SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS. ASSUMING AFTERNOON TEMPS REACH UPPER 70S
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...SB CAPE SHOULD REACH 1500
J/KG. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE /STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARD/. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS LOW CAPE DENSITY
ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY SEEM TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE
INCLUSION OF SE MI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE RATHER GOOD DENSITY GRADIENT ALONG THE SFC COLD
FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STILL PROVE EFFICIENT IN
PROVIDING A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PRECIP WATER AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND FAIRLY HIGH DEEP
LAYER MEAN RH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT DUE TO THE MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT
COULD AGAIN POSE SOME LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING.
WHILE THE SFC FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY
03Z...GOOD FGEN WITHIN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
THE LONGWAVE NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WILL UNDERGO FURTHER PHASING/CONSOLATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV AS
SOUTHERN ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...LEADING TO
DEEPENING AND CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY.
ABUNDANT RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE...BOTH PACIFIED AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SURGING NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN...ALLOWING RAIN TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...AS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH/OR CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. PER 00Z NAM...EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD...COUPLED WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE (850 MB DEW PTS OF 10+
C...700 MB DEW PTS UP AROUND 2 C)...MODEST INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER
INDEX DROPPING TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BY THURSDAY
MORNING)...WILL RESULT IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL/ALREADY SOAKED GROUND/ELEVATED RIVERS. TROUGH AXIS
POTENTIALLY GOING NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT MAY PROLONG THE
RAIN A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO HAS COME IN MUCH WEAKER
LOW/SOLUTION THAN ITS 12Z RUN...AND THUS SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF RAIN
OCCURRING BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TAKES HOLD
ON THURSDAY.
DRYING OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY...AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO FOR FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COLDER
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SUFFICIENT FOR CU UP AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH FROST POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE.
MARINE...
WARM AND MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF LAKE HURON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TODAY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS THEY GRADUALLY VEER FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS A LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARO. FUNNELING THROUGH SAGINAW BAY COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-LHZ462-
LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LHZ362...UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LHZ361...UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
710 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED TROF
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
THRU NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LINGERING IN THE
BASE OF THE TROF OVER NM/CO. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS
WITH OTHER NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO...SFC LOW PRES WAS TRACKING N
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SWEEPING INTO WRN UPPER
MI WHILE SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL HELD UP S OF UPPER MI.
FORTUNATELY...LITTLE PCPN HAS FALLEN SINCE SHRA MOVED THRU THE FCST
AREA YESTERDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL HELP EASE RISES ON
RIVERS THAT HAVE HIGH FLOWS.
AS OCCLUDED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...
WILL MAINTAIN A SHRA CHC ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY YET BE SOME
THUNDER OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...BUT POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL LIFT
QUICKLY WITH FROPA. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THAT HEALTHY CAA
WILL AID GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW UNDER
FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION. GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 40KT
AT TIMES THERE.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT UNDER DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ONLY DEEPEN FURTHER
BY LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN /THOUGH FRIDAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN/...BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL INTO AT
LEAST FIRST PART OF WEEKEND. AND STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND FRIDAY THOUGH THE MODEL LEADING THE
CHARGE ON THAT IDEA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM THAT IDEA WITH MOST RECENT MODEL RUN...AS HAS THE GEM-NH
AND THE UKMET WHICH WAS TRACKING ALONG WITH THE ECMWF FOR A WHILE
NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS A TREND OR A TEMPORARY SHIFT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET. SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO RESULT IN LAKE
BREEZES. FORCING WEAKER THAN IT LOOKED 24 HR AGO AND MOISTURE RATHER
PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BUILD UP OF HIGHER BASED CU...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. DWPTS START DAY AROUND 30F AND MIXED LAYER DWPNT OUTPUT
POINTED TO AROUND 20 FOR INTERIOR WEST BY MID AFTN. PRETTY FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MIXING. FOR NOW DROPPED DWPNTS INTO LOW-MID 20S
WHICH RESULTS IN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. FIRE WX ISSUES WILL BE
MITIGATED BY RECENT RAINFALL AND SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURES CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING
NORTH GRADIENT FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEEPENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAJORITY OF CWA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE SECONDARY JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RESULT IS TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILTED THEN CLOSING OFF BY FRIDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT HOLDS THE KEY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FORECAST. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE THE MOST WRAPPED UP
AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS MOSTLY
HAS STAYED PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW...LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES INSTEAD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LATEST ECMWF/UKMET/GEM-NH GOING THAT WAY TOO. SEEMS THAT ECMWF HAS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAN WAS THERE PERVIOUSLY.
THIS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGH STAYING MORE OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH KEEPS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES FROM THE
GEM STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER WEST SFC LOW...
SO THAT IDEA MAY NOT BE DONE JUST YET.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO GO BACK TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IDEA INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW...BOOSTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL KEPT
TEMPS CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE BKN-OVC SKIES WITH NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR...EVEN WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO PUT A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT SINCE THE MODEL
THAT WAS SHOWING THIS MOST PERSISTENTLY BACKED AWAY...WILL NOT PUT
THAT MENTION IN THERE AFTER ALL. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH
TO SAY THAT WILL BE FINE WITH MOST PEOPLE THAT ARE TRYING TO PUT THIS
LONG COLD WINTER...AND EARLY SPRING...BEHIND THEM.
TROUGHING GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD STILL
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL...WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS MAY REACH MID TO
UPR 60S INLAND WEST WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. INITIAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL STEADILY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTN AT THE LATEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. WEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON COULD REACH 30 KTS OVER PORTIONS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE BLO 20 KTS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY REACH 30 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ENDED UP LESS THAN EXPECTED
WHICH IS RESULTING IN LESSER OVERALL RISE ON RIVERS THAN COULD HAVE
OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DATA IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
RESULTS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND FOR THE MICHIGAMME
RIVER NEAR REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND TO THE EAST OF CRYSTAL FALLS
JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WAY DAM AND HEMLOCK FALLS. SINCE NOT AS MUCH
RAIN OCCURRED OVER STURGEON RIVER BASIN IN BARAGA COUNTY THE LAST
SHIFT COORDINATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS AND REPLACED THE WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON WITH AN ADVISORY.
DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT DID OCCUR AND ONGOING SNOWMELT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED TROF
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
THRU NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LINGERING IN THE
BASE OF THE TROF OVER NM/CO. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS
WITH OTHER NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO...SFC LOW PRES WAS TRACKING N
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SWEEPING INTO WRN UPPER
MI WHILE SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL HELD UP S OF UPPER MI.
FORTUNATELY...LITTLE PCPN HAS FALLEN SINCE SHRA MOVED THRU THE FCST
AREA YESTERDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL HELP EASE RISES ON
RIVERS THAT HAVE HIGH FLOWS.
AS OCCLUDED FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...
WILL MAINTAIN A SHRA CHC ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY YET BE SOME
THUNDER OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...BUT POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL LIFT
QUICKLY WITH FROPA. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS THAT HEALTHY CAA
WILL AID GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW UNDER
FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION. GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 40KT
AT TIMES THERE.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT UNDER DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ONLY DEEPEN FURTHER
BY LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN /THOUGH FRIDAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN/...BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL INTO AT
LEAST FIRST PART OF WEEKEND. AND STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND FRIDAY THOUGH THE MODEL LEADING THE
CHARGE ON THAT IDEA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM THAT IDEA WITH MOST RECENT MODEL RUN...AS HAS THE GEM-NH
AND THE UKMET WHICH WAS TRACKING ALONG WITH THE ECMWF FOR A WHILE
NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS A TREND OR A TEMPORARY SHIFT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET. SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO RESULT IN LAKE
BREEZES. FORCING WEAKER THAN IT LOOKED 24 HR AGO AND MOISTURE RATHER
PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BUILD UP OF HIGHER BASED CU...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. DWPTS START DAY AROUND 30F AND MIXED LAYER DWPNT OUTPUT
POINTED TO AROUND 20 FOR INTERIOR WEST BY MID AFTN. PRETTY FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MIXING. FOR NOW DROPPED DWPNTS INTO LOW-MID 20S
WHICH RESULTS IN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. FIRE WX ISSUES WILL BE
MITIGATED BY RECENT RAINFALL AND SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURES CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING
NORTH GRADIENT FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEEPENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAJORITY OF CWA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE SECONDARY JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RESULT IS TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILTED THEN CLOSING OFF BY FRIDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT HOLDS THE KEY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FORECAST. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE THE MOST WRAPPED UP
AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS MOSTLY
HAS STAYED PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW...LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES INSTEAD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LATEST ECMWF/UKMET/GEM-NH GOING THAT WAY TOO. SEEMS THAT ECMWF HAS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAN WAS THERE PERVIOUSLY.
THIS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGH STAYING MORE OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH KEEPS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES FROM THE
GEM STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER WEST SFC LOW...
SO THAT IDEA MAY NOT BE DONE JUST YET.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO GO BACK TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IDEA INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW...BOOSTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL KEPT
TEMPS CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE BKN-OVC SKIES WITH NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR...EVEN WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO PUT A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT SINCE THE MODEL
THAT WAS SHOWING THIS MOST PERSISTENTLY BACKED AWAY...WILL NOT PUT
THAT MENTION IN THERE AFTER ALL. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH
TO SAY THAT WILL BE FINE WITH MOST PEOPLE THAT ARE TRYING TO PUT THIS
LONG COLD WINTER...AND EARLY SPRING...BEHIND THEM.
TROUGHING GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD STILL
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL...WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS MAY REACH MID TO
UPR 60S INLAND WEST WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TUE MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL DRYING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID TUE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. WEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON COULD REACH 30 KTS OVER PORTIONS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE BLO 20 KTS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY REACH 30 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ENDED UP LESS THAN EXPECTED
WHICH IS RESULTING IN LESSER OVERALL RISE ON RIVERS THAN COULD HAVE
OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DATA IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
RESULTS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND FOR THE MICHIGAMME
RIVER NEAR REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND TO THE EAST OF CRYSTAL FALLS
JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WAY DAM AND HEMLOCK FALLS. SINCE NOT AS MUCH
RAIN OCCURRED OVER STURGEON RIVER BASIN IN BARAGA COUNTY THE LAST
SHIFT COORDINATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS AND REPLACED THE WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON WITH AN ADVISORY.
DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT DID OCCUR AND ONGOING SNOWMELT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM
WRN MANITOBA INTO THE SRN ROCKIES RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC... LOW PRES WAS LOCATED
OVER WRN WI WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE SE THROUGH CNTRL IA AND A WARM
FRONT INTO NRN WI. RADARS INDICATED THERE WAS A GAP IN THE PCPN OVER
NRN WI AND UPPER MI AS ONE MCS SLIDES TO THE E INTO WRN LOWER MI AND
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM ERN IA. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AREAS OF FOG HAD
DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE ERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS SFC LOW PRES LIFTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT MAY JUST SLIP INTO FAR SRN UPPER
MI. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FROM WI INTO FAR SRN UPPER MI...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. WITH ELEVATED CAPE
UP AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT OR SO...STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH ISOLD SVR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI...CLOSER TO WARM FRONT.
THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...BUT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCH
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY
ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
W HALF BTWN 06Z-12Z.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...STRONG DRYING
WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO AROUND
60 BEFORE CAA STRENGTHENS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY ONLY DEEPEN FURTHER
BY LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN /THOUGH FRIDAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN/...BUT IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL INTO AT
LEAST FIRST PART OF WEEKEND. AND STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND FRIDAY THOUGH THE MODEL LEADING THE
CHARGE ON THAT IDEA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM THAT IDEA WITH MOST RECENT MODEL RUN...AS HAS THE GEM-NH
AND THE UKMET WHICH WAS TRACKING ALONG WITH THE ECMWF FOR A WHILE
NOW. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS IS A TREND OR A TEMPORARY SHIFT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET. SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO RESULT IN LAKE
BREEZES. FORCING WEAKER THAN IT LOOKED 24 HR AGO AND MOISTURE RATHER
PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BUILD UP OF HIGHER BASED CU...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. DWPTS START DAY AROUND 30F AND MIXED LAYER DWPNT OUTPUT
POINTED TO AROUND 20 FOR INTERIOR WEST BY MID AFTN. PRETTY FEASIBLE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MIXING. FOR NOW DROPPED DWPNTS INTO LOW-MID 20S
WHICH RESULTS IN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. FIRE WX ISSUES WILL BE
MITIGATED BY RECENT RAINFALL AND SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURES CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING
NORTH GRADIENT FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEEPENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WHICH
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAJORITY OF CWA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE SECONDARY JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RESULT IS TROUGH ALOFT BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILTED THEN CLOSING OFF BY FRIDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT HOLDS THE KEY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY FORECAST. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE THE MOST WRAPPED UP
AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS MOSTLY
HAS STAYED PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW...LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES INSTEAD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LATEST ECMWF/UKMET/GEM-NH GOING THAT WAY TOO. SEEMS THAT ECMWF HAS
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAN WAS THERE PERVIOUSLY.
THIS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGH STAYING MORE OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH KEEPS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLES FROM THE
GEM STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER WEST SFC LOW...
SO THAT IDEA MAY NOT BE DONE JUST YET.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO GO BACK TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IDEA INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW...BOOSTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL KEPT
TEMPS CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE BKN-OVC SKIES WITH NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR...EVEN WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO PUT A MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT SINCE THE MODEL
THAT WAS SHOWING THIS MOST PERSISTENTLY BACKED AWAY...WILL NOT PUT
THAT MENTION IN THERE AFTER ALL. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH
TO SAY THAT WILL BE FINE WITH MOST PEOPLE THAT ARE TRYING TO PUT THIS
LONG COLD WINTER...AND EARLY SPRING...BEHIND THEM.
TROUGHING GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD STILL
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR FOR
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL...WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS MAY REACH MID TO
UPR 60S INLAND WEST WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS ARE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TUE MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL DRYING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID TUE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. WEST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON COULD REACH 30 KTS OVER PORTIONS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE BLO 20 KTS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL THAT
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY REACH 30 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ENDED UP LESS THAN EXPECTED
WHICH IS RESULTING IN LESSER OVERALL RISE ON RIVERS THAN COULD HAVE
OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST DATA IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
RESULTS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND FOR THE MICHIGAMME
RIVER NEAR REPUBLIC...WITCH LAKE...AND TO THE EAST OF CRYSTAL FALLS
JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WAY DAM AND HEMLOCK FALLS. SINCE NOT AS MUCH
RAIN OCCURRED OVER STURGEON RIVER BASIN IN BARAGA COUNTY THE LAST
SHIFT COORDINATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS AND REPLACED THE WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON WITH AN ADVISORY.
DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT DID OCCUR AND ONGOING SNOWMELT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...RIVER FLOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1209 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM
WRN MANITOBA INTO THE SRN ROCKIES RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC... LOW PRES WAS LOCATED
OVER WRN WI WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE SE THROUGH CNTRL IA AND A WARM
FRONT INTO NRN WI. RADARS INDICATED THERE WAS A GAP IN THE PCPN OVER
NRN WI AND UPPER MI AS ONE MCS SLIDES TO THE E INTO WRN LOWER MI AND
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHED TO THE SW FROM ERN IA. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AREAS OF FOG HAD
DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH UPSLOPE ERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT...AS SFC LOW PRES LIFTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT MAY JUST SLIP INTO FAR SRN UPPER
MI. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FROM WI INTO FAR SRN UPPER MI...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. WITH ELEVATED CAPE
UP AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT OR SO...STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH ISOLD SVR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI...CLOSER TO WARM FRONT.
THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...BUT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCH
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY
ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
W HALF BTWN 06Z-12Z.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...STRONG DRYING
WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO AROUND
60 BEFORE CAA STRENGTHENS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN MANITOBA 00Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST.
THIS TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THU. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE OVER THE ERN CWA. MOISTURE STAYS LIMITED UNTIL THU AND
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE 12Z SAT WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN
AND THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION TREND AND
LOOKS WET THIS FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL SUN AND SUN NIGHT WHEN THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...PCPN CHANCES WILL STAY LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVING SOME SNOW IN DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD
AS WELL WITH COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO NOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TUE MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL DRYING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND TO VFR BY EARLY TO MID TUE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
NE GALES ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA
AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE
TUE MORNING...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL MAINLY BE BLO 20 KTS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WITH WINDS OVER 25 KTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THAT SYSTEM
THOUGH...SO CURRENT FORECAST WILL ONLY CALL FOR NORTHWEST TO 20 KTS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS WHOLE RAIN EVENT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON MAY
EXCEED ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
ONGOING SNOWMELT AND ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR REPUBLIC AND WITCH LAKE...THE STURGEON
RIVER AT CHASSELL AND ALSTON AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE WAY DAM TO THE EAST OF CRYSTAL FALLS ARE UNDER FLOOD WARNINGS.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...RIVER
LEVELS WILL KEEP RISING AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS. ALL THIS WATER DUE TO THE SNOWMELT AND THE
RAINFALL WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK THROUGH THE RIVERS...SO IT IS
QUITE LIKELY THAT HIGHER RIVER FLOWS AND THE ASSOCIATED ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK...IF NOT INTO THIS WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ADDED SCA TO MARINE FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS
MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA SPECIFICALLY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH ABOVE THRESHOLD
GUSTS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME TO CAUSE SOME HAZARD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
BREAKS IN NE MN. RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOME
AREAS OF NE MN WITH DRIZZLE REPORTED IN NW WI. HRRR INDICATES SOME
CELLULAR SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING. WILL EXTEND POPS INTO NW WI FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AS OF
08Z WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN SPOTS.
WE EXPECT MINIMAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING
KVWU/KBDE/KFGN/KRRT/CYQK. RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THAT MAY AFFECT KINL
THIS MORNING...AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 16Z.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MN ZONES INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SPOTS. WE EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF SOME
LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS/SLEET INTO THE AFTERNOON IF CORES ARE
STRONG ENOUGH. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES.
WE KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWER INTO THE EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MN...THEN WENT DRY LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE THIRTIES.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND
FAR NORTHWEST WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT
REMAIN RATHER COLD...SO WE DO MENTION SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AGAIN. WE WENT ALL RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN SOME ISOLATED MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO MID FIFTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STAGNANT UPPER TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL US THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF...AGAIN...LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY...COOL AND
WET PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE WETTEST PERIOD IS PROBABLY BEHIND US.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPER
TROF COULD KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN
EASTERN AREAS OF CWA. BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO POP UP THURSDAY AS A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CAUSE STEEP
ENOUGH LAPSE RATE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. WITH TORRIDNESS SLOW TO
MOVE OUT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
AREA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...KEPT SHOWERS
INT HE FORECAST IN THE EAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL.
IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO -4 TO -8 AND STAYING
PUT THROUGH FRIDAY. SO SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY LATE IN THE
WEENED BE EITHER OVER CENTRAL OT OR THE UP OF MI. BUT THIS ALLOW
SOME SUN AND DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN ON MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
WILL DIG INTO THE WEST COAST AND PROVIDE ANOTHER SFC LOW TO MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES TO SWEEP
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SFC LOW. GUSTY
WINDS ATTRIBUTED TO SFC PRESS GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO MECHANICAL
MIXDOWN OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. VCSH INCLUDED AT MOST TERMINALS
NEXT SEVERAL HRS DUE TO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH
SOME DISSIPATION OF CU MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SHOULD
SEE A TREND TOWARDS MORE VFR CUMULUS WED LATE MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 34 51 32 / 30 20 20 10
INL 46 31 47 30 / 50 40 40 10
BRD 51 34 54 32 / 30 20 30 10
HYR 49 34 57 32 / 30 10 10 10
ASX 47 34 52 31 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1023 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE....MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ADDED SCA TO MARINE FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS
MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA SPECIFICALLY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH ABOVE THRESHOLD
GUSTS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME TO CAUSE SOME HAZARD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
BREAKS IN NE MN. RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOME
AREAS OF NE MN WITH DRIZZLE REPORTED IN NW WI. HRRR INDICATES SOME
CELLULAR SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING. WILL EXTEND POPS INTO NW WI FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AS OF
08Z WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN SPOTS.
WE EXPECT MINIMAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING
KVWU/KBDE/KFGN/KRRT/CYQK. RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THAT MAY AFFECT KINL
THIS MORNING...AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 16Z.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MN ZONES INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SPOTS. WE EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF SOME
LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS/SLEET INTO THE AFTERNOON IF CORES ARE
STRONG ENOUGH. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES.
WE KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWER INTO THE EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MN...THEN WENT DRY LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE THIRTIES.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND
FAR NORTHWEST WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT
REMAIN RATHER COLD...SO WE DO MENTION SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AGAIN. WE WENT ALL RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN SOME ISOLATED MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO MID FIFTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STAGNANT UPPER TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL US THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF...AGAIN...LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY...COOL AND
WET PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE WETTEST PERIOD IS PROBABLY BEHIND US.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPER
TROF COULD KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN
EASTERN AREAS OF CWA. BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO POP UP THURSDAY AS A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CAUSE STEEP
ENOUGH LAPSE RATE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. WITH TORRIDNESS SLOW TO
MOVE OUT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
AREA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...KEPT SHOWERS
INT HE FORECAST IN THE EAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL.
IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO -4 TO -8 AND STAYING
PUT THROUGH FRIDAY. SO SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY LATE IN THE
WEENED BE EITHER OVER CENTRAL OT OR THE UP OF MI. BUT THIS ALLOW
SOME SUN AND DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN ON MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
WILL DIG INTO THE WEST COAST AND PROVIDE ANOTHER SFC LOW TO MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE REMAIN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE
IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K FEET COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR AFT 13Z-
14Z THEN VFR AFT 17Z-18Z. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 34 51 32 / 30 20 20 10
INL 46 31 47 30 / 50 40 40 10
BRD 51 34 54 32 / 30 20 30 10
HYR 49 34 57 32 / 30 10 10 10
ASX 47 34 52 31 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
MARINE...CANNON
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
BREAKS IN NE MN. RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOME
AREAS OF NE MN WITH DRIZZLE REPORTED IN NW WI. HRRR INDICATES SOME
CELLEUR SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING. WILL EXTEND POPS INTO NW WI FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AS OF
08Z WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN SPOTS.
WE EXPECT MINIMAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING
KVWU/KBDE/KFGN/KRRT/CYQK. RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THAT MAY AFFECT KINL
THIS MORNING...AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 16Z.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MN ZONES INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SPOTS. WE EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF SOME
LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS/SLEET INTO THE AFTERNOON IF CORES ARE
STRONG ENOUGH. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES.
WE KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWER INTO THE EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MN...THEN WENT DRY LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE THIRTIES.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND
FAR NORTHWEST WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT
REMAIN RATHER COLD...SO WE DO MENTION SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AGAIN. WE WENT ALL RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN SOME ISOLATED MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO MID FIFTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STAGNANT UPPER TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL US THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF...AGAIN...LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN A SOMEWHAT CLOUDY...COOL AND
WET PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE WETTEST PERIOD IS PROBABLY BEHIND US.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPER
TROF COULD KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN
EASTERN AREAS OF CWA. BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO POP UP THURSDAY AS A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CAUSE STEEP
ENOUGH LAPSE RATE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. WITH TORRIDNESS SLOW TO
MOVE OUT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
AREA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...KEPT SHOWERS
INT HE FORECAST IN THE EAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL.
IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO -4 TO -8 AND STAYING
PUT THROUGH FRIDAY. SO SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY LATE IN THE
WEENED BE EITHER OVER CENTRAL OT OR THE UP OF MI. BUT THIS ALLOW
SOME SUN AND DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN ON MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
WILL DIG INTO THE WEST COAST AND PROVIDE ANOTHER SFC LOW TO MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE REMAIN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE
IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K FEET COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR AFT 13Z-
14Z THEN VFR AFT 17Z-18Z. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 34 51 32 / 30 20 20 10
INL 46 31 47 30 / 50 40 40 10
BRD 51 34 54 32 / 30 20 30 10
HYR 49 34 57 32 / 30 10 10 10
ASX 47 34 52 31 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
956 AM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTERED FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMED TODAYS HIGH A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF FORECAST.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
WINDS AS HIGH AS 650MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CREATE A FIELD OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS. SURFACE WIND WILL DECLINE QUICKLY ONCE SURFACE
HEATING CEASES.
SHORT TERM MODELS (HRRR AND SREF) BOTH HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA
AROUND PETROLEUM COUNTY. THE HRRR EVEN HAS A LITTLE CAPE IN THE
AREA...SO ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AREA.
MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN EXISTS OVER NORTH AMERICAN. THERE
IS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DEEP TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR MASSES...WILL SEE FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BUT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS A
BIT EAST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW TO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER DURING THE SHORT
TERM.
WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA GENERALLY BETWEEN THE WARM AIR MASS TO THE
WEST AND THE COOLER AIR MASS TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE CLOSED SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO STACK
UP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO FORM A COMPACT CYCLONE. THIS WILL
SET A REINFORCING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER NEMONT. EFFICIENT
MIXING FROM AS HIGH AS 600MB COULD CREATE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
THE LAKE. THE RESULT WILL ONCE AGAIN REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY
OVER FORT PECK LAKE FOR NW WIND OF 15-25KT. WIND ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH DIMINISHED AND NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. SCT
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING REGARDING THE UPPER LOW
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES DUE TO BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH EAST PACIFIC LOW
MIGRATING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE POSITION OF
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...THREAT FOR THUNDER VERY LOW
OF SATURDAY. PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST EXPECTED TO KEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EC IS CONSISTENT WITH SLOWLY
MOVING THE LOW EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE THE GEFS IS
DIGGING THE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH PATTERNS ARE
GENERALLY WET FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...ALTHOUGH THE EC HAS BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
SYNOPSIS: TODAY... A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH ON THE EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AREA WINDS: DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN CALMING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1206 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD WILL COTNINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT...BACK DOOR FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SRN NH ATTM. IT
WORKED ALONG THE COAST FIRST CLOSER TO 00Z...AND NOW HAS PUSHING
INLAND IN A DENSITY DRIVEN CURRENT SIMILAR TO SEA BREEZE. A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE POPPED UP ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL NH...BUT ARE QUICKLY BEING UNDERMINED BY THE MARINE AIR
AS IT WORKS INLAND...SO THESE SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PICK UP ON THIS.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY BASED ON LATEST OBS.
PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THE WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAD ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH. CLOUDS FROM THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THICKEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS...WHERE THOUGH COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO...WITH THE MOST ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THEN MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT THE THICKER CLOUD WILL SPREAD
A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE TOWARDS DAWN NEAR THE COAST IN THE
LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY MERIDIONAL FLOW SETS UP STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY. WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT AND PROVIDE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. FOG AND DRIZZLE PROBABLY SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT
WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST. DEEP LAYER RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP US DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. SAME GENERAL SETUP IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER...BUT CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH RIBBON ON HEAVY SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LIKELY AS
FRONT INTERACTS WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH OVER AN INCH LIKELY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. IMPROVEMENT
MAY BE SEEN ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE
STUBBORN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z WED/...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. AREAS OF MVFR
TUE NIGHT IN CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VARYING CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
THIS MEANS BOUTS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PERIOD MAY FEATURE PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THERE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...AND LOW CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NO FLAGS. BRIEF SURGE OF NE WINDS
BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 KT IN THE OPEN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
LONG TERM...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS BY THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MARKEDLY REDUCE FIRE DANGER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF INSTABILITY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE AND DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE BUFFALO/ERIE AREA WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND POSITION OF THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS THE REGION...HOWEVER GIVEN INSTABILITY-
AXIS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A PLEASANT GENERALLY
PARTLY- MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A DECK OF LOW LEVEL MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL GET PICKED UP IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE REGION.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NORTHERN EXTENT UP TO ABOUT
BURLINGTON VERMONT...AND THAT LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION. AS
MENTIONED...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS BY THURSDAY MORNING 20-30 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 20-35 MPH AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 50 IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOW 60S IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLOWS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO...THIS COLD FRONT
ALSO BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS BEST LIFT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN WENT WITH JUST A MENTION STEADY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CUBA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTING AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BY SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD IS TRANSITION TO COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROF INITIALLY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SOUTHEAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TUESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SHOWERS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT A BIT FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY/S RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD SO THAT BY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOST PLACES AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR EAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE
STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...-25C AT 500 MB...MOVING IN THIS TIME OF YEAR
EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AGAIN WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
TOO FAR OUT TO REALLY TIME THAT. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S, BUT IF
IT RAINS MORE STEADILY, TEMPS COULD BE ONLY IN THE 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS LONG
AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BACK UP TO AROUND 70 OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING CYCLE. THIS LEAVES DRY WX AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 08-09Z (SCT-BKN070-120). THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BE WATCHING NWD MIGRATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY
ACROSS CT AND SERN NY. THE NAM/RUC SUGGEST A PERIOD OF BKN010-020
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/BTV BETWEEN 09-13Z.
THEREAFTER...DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD BRING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS 22-28 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z FRI...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS FROM KPBG
EASTWARD. WEST OF KPBG...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY IN
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AVERAGING GENERALLY IN THE
10-20/15-25 KNOT RANGE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
COLDER WATER THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL CREATE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ON THE BROAD LAKE AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF INSTABILITY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE AND DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE BUFFALO/ERIE AREA WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND POSITION OF THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS THE REGION...HOWEVER GIVEN INSTABILITY-
AXIS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A PLEASANT GENERALLY
PARTLY- MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A DECK OF LOW LEVEL MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL GET PICKED UP IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE REGION.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NORTHERN EXTENT UP TO ABOUT
BURLINGTON VERMONT...AND THAT LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION. AS
MENTIONED...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS BY THURSDAY MORNING 20-30 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 20-35 MPH AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 50 IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOW 60S IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLOWS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO...THIS COLD FRONT
ALSO BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS BEST LIFT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN WENT WITH JUST A MENTION STEADY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CUBA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTING AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BY SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD IS TRANSITION TO COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROF INITIALLY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SOUTHEAST AND CLOSES OFF OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OUT TO
SEA TUESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SHOWERS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT A BIT FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY/S RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD SO THAT BY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOST PLACES AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR EAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE
STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...-25C AT 500 MB...MOVING IN THIS TIME OF YEAR
EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AGAIN WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
TOO FAR OUT TO REALLY TIME THAT. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S, BUT IF
IT RAINS MORE STEADILY, TEMPS COULD BE ONLY IN THE 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS LONG
AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BACK UP TO AROUND 70 OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW
W/ SCT/BKN MID CLOUD COVER WITH NRN NY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE VT
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF A WEAKENING BACK DOOR FRONT. ALONG THE FRONT
IN IN NRN NY SOME SCT SHRA POSSIBLE WITH ISLD TS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TS AT THIS POINT AS PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT IF THEY DO
DEVELOP THIS AFT/EVE IT WOULD BE MAINLY VCTY KMSS AND KSLK.
WITH ONSHORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SOME LOWER 010-020 BKN-OVC
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH BASES RISING BY END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS OR SO FOR
BTV MAINLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU THRU 12Z FRI...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS FROM KPBG
EASTWARD. WEST OF KPBG...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY IN
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AVERAGING GENERALLY IN THE
10-20/15-25 KNOT RANGE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
COLDER WATER THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL CREATE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ON THE BROAD LAKE AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOAKING RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...LATEST LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL BGM AREA. THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
WYOMING VALLEY. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FEATURE ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
AREA ITS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES BEFORE
STALLING AND MOVING BACK EAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN CAPE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LESSEN. CONVECTION OVER GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NRN PTN OF CWA LATE TONIGHT BUT
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THEN.
3 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L60S
IN THE WEST. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE WITH A WEAK WAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTORM WILL GET GOING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVE.
THE UL RIDGE ALSO MOVES THROUGH CREATING A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH DEWPT
TEMPS...MIN TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM U40S EAST TO A60 FAR WEST.
DEWPTS DROP AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE EXIT OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY IN ERN MICIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
WED AND THU WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS. WEAK FORCING AND
MORE COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WED WILL BE
BETTER THAN THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NW NY THEN LIFTS
NORTH WED NGT. THU LITTLE FORCING AS WE WAIT FOR THE MAIN SHOW
WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE MISS
VALLEY TO MICHIGAN THEN INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF A DEEP DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT
KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OF WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR ISOLATED HYDRO PROBLEMS.
THIS RAIN HELPED BY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AND PWATS OF 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPTS 60S AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS NEAR NORMAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WOULD MOST LIKELY
NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS INDICATING CDFNT WL BE BISECTING CWA AT BEGINNING
OF LONG TERM. HV GONE WITH LKLY/CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH
CHC FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED FOLLOWING
FROPA. REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WL FEATURE SHOWERS EACH PD COURTESY
OF UPR LVL LOW HANGING BACK TO THE WEST. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE
CASES, EXPECT THAT AFT 12Z SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS WL BE OF
THE MORE HIT AND MISS VARIETY WITH MOSTLY MISSES. THUS, THRU THE
END OF THE LONG TERM WL KEEP 20-30 POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPS DRG THE PD EXPECTED TO BE BLO NRML UNDER EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.
FOLLOWED WPC GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES BTWN MED RANGE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE
PROJECTED MARINE LAYER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR LATEST
FORECAST INCLUDES A TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR
CEILINGS FROM AVP UP TO ITH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, THEN A
PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND
5000 FEET.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
634 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BRING
DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 530 PM...THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAPS SHOWING AVERAGE CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DESPITE THIS...THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION SO FAR. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE SOON.
A WELL DEFINED AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS
MOVING GRADUALLY EASTWARD. THIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT 18Z NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO BRING ITS REMNANTS INTO OUR REGION MID-LATE EVENING. ALSO...AS
OUTFLOWS SPREAD AHEAD OF THIS...IT IS POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL...POSSIBLY REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND 1.3 TO 15
INCHES...SO HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPSIDE IS THAT THE
STEERING WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TONIGHT WITH ABOUT 20 KNOTS AT
5KFT AND 35 KNOTS AT 10KFT...SO STORMS WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG
OVER ANY INDIVIDUAL WATERSHED. THIS SAID...AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS THIS
PASSES THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP...THE LOWER CHANCE
POPS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. AGAIN...THE STALLED
FRONT ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE A
WINDSHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE DISPLACED BY A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A DEEP TROUGH BASED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN A RICH MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO QUEBEC. THIS PROLONGED FEED OF SUB TROPICAL AIR WILL
CONTAIN PWAT VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS IN PLACE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE DETAILS...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BECOME ENERGIZED OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE A WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A FAIRLY
WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IN TURN WILL INCREASE
THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND TIGHTEN A
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR REGION AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN STAYING WEST
OF THE IAG RIVER. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD EXPECT A VERY MILD AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID NIGHT FOR MID MAY WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
AS THE AXIS OF A 100KT H25 JET WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL LIFT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND OHIO ON THURSDAY...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERATED. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE INITIAL SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH VERY SLOWLY TO
THE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...A 150KT JETLET IS EXPECTED
TO RACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THIS JET...COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE IN PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SUB TROPICAL AIRMASS. WILL
CONTINUE TO USE CAT POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH EAST OF LK
ONTARIO TO AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ONE INCH. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON.
ONE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL FURTHER SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...IF NOT STALLING IT FOR SOME 6 HOURS. WHILE
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOLER...AND FOR THE MOST PART...DRIER THAN THE WEEK
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD AS A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL RESULT IN OUR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA VERSUS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
NUISANCE SHOWERS THOUGH...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THE WEEK WILL EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF NEW JERSEY.
A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES TO ROTATE
NORTHWEST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD THEN CIRCULATE BACK ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE A LOW CHC FOR RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LATE DAY AND
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MOST SENSIBLE WEATHER CAN BE COVERED WITH
VCNTY QUALIFIERS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO EVENTUALLY
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ITS APPROACH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...THOMAS/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. SHOWERS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH TO BE FROM AVP TO BGM MIDDAY BUT DISSIPATE BY
21Z. A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE NW. INTENSITY OF PRECIP DYING AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOT AS COMMON. MESO MODELS ESP HRRR HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND FOLLOWED. MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST UPPED SLIGHTLY
DUE TO MORE SUN AND HARDLY ANY RAIN SHOWERS. WHERE IT IS RAINING
NOW MAX TEMPS WILL BE LATE BUT SHOULD STILL PEAK A80.
7 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO FOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. COMPLEX DEVELOPED
ON LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET BUT IS NOW OUTRUNNING INTO MORE
STABLE AIR AS DOES SO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND AN
INCH-AND-A-HALF MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN CENTRAL TWIN
TIERS AND FINGER LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. COULD LEAD TO PONDING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 430 AM...COMPLEX OF STORMS DOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN WEAKENED. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET...ALSO COINCIDING WITH A WEAK
WAVE ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF NY AND SOME OF WESTERN PA. MEANWHILE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE RESULTED FROM A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW TRAVERSING THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WHICH IS RUNNING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
AIR AND THUS NOT MUCH OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM BROUGHT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET INITIALIZED WITH THE
EARLIER SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. THUS I SIDED HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD THE SW PA COMPLEX AND AS EXPECTED KEPT THINGS
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEW
CONVECTION NOW IN WESTERN NY/PA IS AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB
JET...BUT MODELS SHOW THAT THE JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO I ANTICIPATE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WHILE SKIMMING SOME OF OUR SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. I THUS HAVE PLACED
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES FOR LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE SHOWERS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY AN INCH-AND-A-HALF.
HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO PROCEED...THE
DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL AIR DAMMING
ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN STILL MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN WEAK WAVES TRYING TO RIDE
THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS ME HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FURTHER DELAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD-OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE WILL
STILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM
SURFACE FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING MENTION OF
THUNDER IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME
OVERALL WILL BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF
INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO FORCED A WARMER ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO MAINLY 75-80 DEGREE RANGE...THANKS TO
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY REASSERTING ITSELF WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS INDICATING CDFNT WL BE BISECTING CWA AT BEGINNING
OF LONG TERM. HV GONE WITH LKLY/CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH
CHC FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED FOLLOWING
FROPA. REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WL FEATURE SHOWERS EACH PD COURTESY
OF UPR LVL LOW HANGING BACK TO THE WEST. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE
CASES, EXPECT THAT AFT 12Z SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS WL BE OF
THE MORE HIT AND MISS VARIETY WITH MOSTLY MISSES. THUS, THRU THE
END OF THE LONG TERM WL KEEP 20-30 POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPS DRG THE PD EXPECTED TO BE BLO NRML UNDER EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.
FOLLOWED WPC GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES BTWN MED RANGE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDERLYING A HIGH CIRRUS LAYER. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY
POP UP AT ANY TIME. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT
AVP, BGM, ELM AND ITH AFTER 04Z. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF ITH
AND BGM MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR OVC009. MVFR MAY WORK UP INTO RME
TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF SO HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED SCT025 FROM 03Z ONWARD. BY 15Z, EXPECT MARINE LAYER
TO BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT NY TERMINALS WITH AVP REMAINING BKN025
THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.
WINDS WILL BE VRB THIS EVENING BECOMING SSE BETWEEN 5-10KTS AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. SHOWERS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH TO BE FROM AVP TO BGM MIDDAY BUT DISSIPATE BY
21Z. A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE NW. INTENSITY OF PRECIP DYING AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOT AS COMMON. MESO MODELS ESP HRRR HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND FOLLOWED. MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST UPPED SLIGHTLY
DUE TO MORE SUN AND HARDLY ANY RAIN SHOWERS. WHERE IT IS RAINING
NOW MAX TEMPS WILL BE LATE BUT SHOULD STILL PEAK A80.
7 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO FOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. COMPLEX DEVELOPED
ON LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET BUT IS NOW OUTRUNNING INTO MORE
STABLE AIR AS DOES SO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND AN
INCH-AND-A-HALF MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN CENTRAL TWIN
TIERS AND FINGER LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. COULD LEAD TO PONDING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 430 AM...COMPLEX OF STORMS DOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN WEAKENED. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET...ALSO COINCIDING WITH A WEAK
WAVE ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF NY AND SOME OF WESTERN PA. MEANWHILE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE RESULTED FROM A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW TRAVERSING THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WHICH IS RUNNING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
AIR AND THUS NOT MUCH OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM BROUGHT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET INITIALIZED WITH THE
EARLIER SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. THUS I SIDED HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD THE SW PA COMPLEX AND AS EXPECTED KEPT THINGS
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEW
CONVECTION NOW IN WESTERN NY/PA IS AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB
JET...BUT MODELS SHOW THAT THE JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO I ANTICIPATE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WHILE SKIMMING SOME OF OUR SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. I THUS HAVE PLACED
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES FOR LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE SHOWERS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY AN INCH-AND-A-HALF.
HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO PROCEED...THE
DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL AIR DAMMING
ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN STILL MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN WEAK WAVES TRYING TO RIDE
THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS ME HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FURTHER DELAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD-OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE WILL
STILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM
SURFACE FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING MENTION OF
THUNDER IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME
OVERALL WILL BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF
INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO FORCED A WARMER ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO MAINLY 75-80 DEGREE RANGE...THANKS TO
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY REASSERTING ITSELF WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING WITH ALL ATTENTION REMAINING
FOCUSED ON LATE WEEK RAIN EVENT. FCST MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...WITH MOST SUGGESTING FEATURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z FRI. MAIN CONCERNS RIGHT NOW
APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS 850 U-WIND
SPEEDS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PUMP AMPLE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...FEATURE LOOKS TO PASS QUICK ENOUGH TO
HOPEFULLY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS BUT LATER MODEL
RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO VERIFY THIS TREND. OVERALL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN A
POST FRONTAL (ANAFRONT-TYPE) AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY ADVANCES
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDERLYING A HIGH CIRRUS LAYER. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY
POP UP AT ANY TIME. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT
AVP, BGM, ELM AND ITH AFTER 04Z. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF ITH
AND BGM MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR OVC009. MVFR MAY WORK UP INTO RME
TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF SO HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED SCT025 FROM 03Z ONWARD. BY 15Z, EXPECT MARINE LAYER
TO BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT NY TERMINALS WITH AVP REMAINING BKN025
THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.
WINDS WILL BE VRB THIS EVENING BECOMING SSE BETWEEN 5-10KTS AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO FOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. COMPLEX DEVELOPED
ON LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET BUT IS NOW OUTRUNNING INTO MORE
STABLE AIR AS DOES SO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND AN
INCH-AND-A-HALF MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN CENTRAL TWIN
TIERS AND FINGER LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. COULD LEAD TO PONDING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 430 AM...COMPLEX OF STORMS DOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN WEAKENED. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION HAS
FIRED AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET...ALSO COINCIDING WITH A WEAK
WAVE ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF NY AND SOME OF WESTERN PA. MEANWHILE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE RESULTED FROM A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW TRAVERSING THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WHICH IS RUNNING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
AIR AND THUS NOT MUCH OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM BROUGHT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET INITIALIZED WITH THE
EARLIER SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. THUS I SIDED HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD THE SW PA COMPLEX AND AS EXPECTED KEPT THINGS
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEW
CONVECTION NOW IN WESTERN NY/PA IS AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB
JET...BUT MODELS SHOW THAT THE JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO I ANTICIPATE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WHILE SKIMMING SOME OF OUR SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. I THUS HAVE PLACED
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES FOR LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE SHOWERS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY AN INCH-AND-A-HALF.
HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO PROCEED...THE
DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL AIR DAMMING
ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN STILL MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN WEAK WAVES TRYING TO RIDE
THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS ME HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FURTHER DELAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD-OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE WILL
STILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM
SURFACE FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING MENTION OF
THUNDER IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME
OVERALL WILL BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF
INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO FORCED A WARMER ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO MAINLY 75-80 DEGREE RANGE...THANKS TO
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY REASSERTING ITSELF WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING WITH ALL ATTENTION REMAINING
FOCUSED ON LATE WEEK RAIN EVENT. FCST MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...WITH MOST SUGGESTING FEATURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z FRI. MAIN CONCERNS RIGHT NOW
APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS 850 U-WIND
SPEEDS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PUMP AMPLE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...FEATURE LOOKS TO PASS QUICK ENOUGH TO
HOPEFULLY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS BUT LATER MODEL
RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO VERIFY THIS TREND. OVERALL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN A
POST FRONTAL (ANAFRONT-TYPE) AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY ADVANCES
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. MAIN CONCERNS OUT OF THE GATE WILL INVOLVE
TSRA POTENTIAL AT BOTH ELM AND ITH AS WESTERN NY ACTIVITY SLIDES
EAST WITH TIME. FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT OUTRUNS THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VLY
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THAT SAID...HAVE ELECTED TO OFFER A TEMPO
TSRA MENTION AT BOTH SITES AS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP FURTHER AND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM HOURS.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPING SHWRS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED POTENTIAL ONLY AT
ELM AND ITH AS FCST MODELS SHOW MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ON-THE-FLY AS
NEEDED.
ANY SHWR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW...MARINE LAYER AIR WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH INTO THE AREA
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AT MOST SITES (EXCEPT SYR/RME)
AFTER 6Z.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF STORMS DOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN WEAKENED. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED AT
LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET...ALSO COINCIDING WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF
NY AND SOME OF WESTERN PA. MEANWHILE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED
FROM A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW TRAVERSING THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...WHICH IS RUNNING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR AND
THUS NOT MUCH OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM BROUGHT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET INITIALIZED WITH THE
EARLIER SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. THUS I SIDED HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD THE SW PA COMPLEX AND AS EXPECTED KEPT THINGS
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEW
CONVECTION NOW IN WESTERN NY/PA IS AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB
JET...BUT MODELS SHOW THAT THE JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO I ANTICIPATE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WHILE SKIMMING SOME OF OUR SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. I THUS HAVE PLACED
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES FOR LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE SHOWERS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY AN INCH-AND-A-HALF.
HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO PROCEED...THE
DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL AIR DAMMING
ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN STILL MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN WEAK WAVES TRYING TO RIDE
THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS ME HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FURTHER DELAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD-OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE WILL
STILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM
SURFACE FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING MENTION OF
THUNDER IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME
OVERALL WILL BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF
INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO FORCED A WARMER ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO MAINLY 75-80 DEGREE RANGE...THANKS TO
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY REASSERTING ITSELF WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING WITH ALL ATTENTION REMAINING
FOCUSED ON LATE WEEK RAIN EVENT. FCST MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...WITH MOST SUGGESTING FEATURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z FRI. MAIN CONCERNS RIGHT NOW
APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS 850 U-WIND
SPEEDS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PUMP AMPLE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...FEATURE LOOKS TO PASS QUICK ENOUGH TO
HOPEFULLY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS BUT LATER MODEL
RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO VERIFY THIS TREND. OVERALL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN A
POST FRONTAL (ANAFRONT-TYPE) AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY ADVANCES
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. MAIN CONCERNS OUT OF THE GATE WILL INVOLVE
TSRA POTENTIAL AT BOTH ELM AND ITH AS WESTERN NY ACTIVITY SLIDES
EAST WITH TIME. FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT OUTRUNS THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VLY
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THAT SAID...HAVE ELECTED TO OFFER A TEMPO
TSRA MENTION AT BOTH SITES AS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP FURTHER AND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AM HOURS.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPING SHWRS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED POTENTIAL ONLY AT
ELM AND ITH AS FCST MODELS SHOW MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ON-THE-FLY AS
NEEDED.
ANY SHWR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW...MARINE LAYER AIR WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH INTO THE AREA
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AT MOST SITES (EXCEPT SYR/RME)
AFTER 6Z.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
450 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF STORMS DOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST PA THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN WEAKENED. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED AT
LEADING EDGE OF 850MB JET...ALSO COINCIDING WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF
NY AND SOME OF WESTERN PA. MEANWHILE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED
FROM A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW TRAVERSING THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...WHICH IS RUNNING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR AND
THUS NOT MUCH OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM BROUGHT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET INITIALIZED WITH THE
EARLIER SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. THUS I SIDED HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD THE SW PA COMPLEX AND AS EXPECTED KEPT THINGS
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEW
CONVECTION NOW IN WESTERN NY/PA IS AT LEADING EDGE OF 850MB
JET...BUT MODELS SHOW THAT THE JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO I ANTICIPATE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WHILE SKIMMING SOME OF OUR SW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. I THUS HAVE PLACED
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES FOR LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE SHOWERS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY AN INCH-AND-A-HALF.
HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO PROCEED...THE
DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL AIR DAMMING
ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
MARINE INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN STILL MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN WEAK WAVES TRYING TO RIDE
THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS ME HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO FURTHER DELAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD-OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE WILL
STILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM
SURFACE FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING MENTION OF
THUNDER IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME
OVERALL WILL BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF
INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO FORCED A WARMER ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO MAINLY 75-80 DEGREE RANGE...THANKS TO
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY REASSERTING ITSELF WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING WITH ALL ATTENTION REMAINING
FOCUSED ON LATE WEEK RAIN EVENT. FCST MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...WITH MOST SUGGESTING FEATURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z FRI. MAIN CONCERNS RIGHT NOW
APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS 850 U-WIND
SPEEDS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PUMP AMPLE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...FEATURE LOOKS TO PASS QUICK ENOUGH TO
HOPEFULLY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS BUT LATER MODEL
RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO VERIFY THIS TREND. OVERALL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN A
POST FRONTAL (ANAFRONT-TYPE) AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY ADVANCES
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
RAINFALL. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NY
WITH LGT SHWR ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SHORE. THE SECOND REGION...IN THE FORM OF A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MCS...NOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WITH REDEVELOPING
ACTIVITY NOTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA. WITH DEWPOINTS
RESIDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT SEE TEMPORARY CLEARING. FOR NOW...HAVE
ELECTED TO OFFER AN IFR VSBY MENTION AT ELM AFTER 9Z AS INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CENTRAL PA MCS MAY LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS FCST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A LGT SHWR MENTION ADDED FOR SYR AND RME BASED ON
CURRENT LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO TODAY...FCST MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MENTIONS AT
BOTH ELM AND ITH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFORD LATER
SHIFTS THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADD THUNDER IF CONDITIONS DO IN FACT
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH LATER TODAY. FURTHER EAST...DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE BULK OF SHWR ACTIVITY WEST OF I-81.
LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/PVN
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
402 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW COMPLEX OF STORMS DIVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE NORTHERN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT IT
HAS A LOT LESS ACTIVITY PROBABLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SW
PA COMPLEX. WRF- ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM ALL BRING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET HAVE INITIALIZED WITH
SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. I AM THUS SIDING HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE THE SW PA COMPLEX AND ALSO KEEP THINGS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EARLY MORNING. SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
MEANWHILE HAS NEW STORMS DEVELOPING WHICH WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT I ANTICIPATE THAT PARTICULAR CLUSTER TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. IT DOES PROVIDE A HINT TO WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER
TODAY HOWEVER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. TRAILING END OF WAVE
CURRENTLY FIRING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...CONNECTING TO
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO NEAR ERIE PA...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER JUST AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. I THUS
HAVE PLACED HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER
LAKES FOR LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE
SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO
PROCEED...THE DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL
AIR DAMMING ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN
INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES COULD EVEN
MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT TO WED NGT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN. IN WARM SECTOR WED AND THU WITH
DECENT SFC INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WEAK FORCING.
AS THE UL TROF MOVES EAST IT WILL FINALLY KICK THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS SHORT TERM SOME SOAKING RAINS
BUT MAJORITY OF TIME WILL BE DRY. INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH DEWPTS
RISING INTO U50S AND L60S. MILD TEMPS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING WITH ALL ATTENTION REMAINING
FOCUSED ON LATE WEEK RAIN EVENT. FCST MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...WITH MOST SUGGESTING FEATURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z FRI. MAIN CONCERNS RIGHT NOW
APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS 850 U-WIND
SPEEDS OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PUMP AMPLE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...FEATURE LOOKS TO PASS QUICK ENOUGH TO
HOPEFULLY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS BUT LATER MODEL
RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO VERIFY THIS TREND. OVERALL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN A
POST FRONTAL (ANAFRONT-TYPE) AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW GRADUALLY ADVANCES
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
RAINFALL. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NY
WITH LGT SHWR ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SHORE. THE SECOND REGION...IN THE FORM OF A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MCS...NOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WITH REDEVELOPING
ACTIVITY NOTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA. WITH DEWPOINTS
RESIDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT SEE TEMPORARY CLEARING. FOR NOW...HAVE
ELECTED TO OFFER AN IFR VSBY MENTION AT ELM AFTER 9Z AS INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CENTRAL PA MCS MAY LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS FCST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A LGT SHWR MENTION ADDED FOR SYR AND RME BASED ON
CURRENT LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO TODAY...FCST MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MENTIONS AT
BOTH ELM AND ITH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFORD LATER
SHIFTS THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADD THUNDER IF CONDITIONS DO IN FACT
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH LATER TODAY. FURTHER EAST...DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE BULK OF SHWR ACTIVITY WEST OF I-81.
LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/PVN
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
214 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW COMPLEX OF STORMS DIVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE NORTHERN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT IT
HAS A LOT LESS ACTIVITY PROBABLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SW
PA COMPLEX. WRF- ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM ALL BRING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET HAVE INITIALIZED WITH
SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. I AM THUS SIDING HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE THE SW PA COMPLEX AND ALSO KEEP THINGS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EARLY MORNING. SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
MEANWHILE HAS NEW STORMS DEVELOPING WHICH WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT I ANTICIPATE THAT PARTICULAR CLUSTER TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. IT DOES PROVIDE A HINT TO WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER
TODAY HOWEVER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. TRAILING END OF WAVE
CURRENTLY FIRING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...CONNECTING TO
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO NEAR ERIE PA...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER JUST AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. I THUS
HAVE PLACED HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER
LAKES FOR LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE
SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO
PROCEED...THE DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL
AIR DAMMING ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN
INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES COULD EVEN
MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT TO WED NGT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN. IN WARM SECTOR WED AND THU WITH
DECENT SFC INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WEAK FORCING.
AS THE UL TROF MOVES EAST IT WILL FINALLY KICK THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS SHORT TERM SOME SOAKING RAINS
BUT MAJORITY OF TIME WILL BE DRY. INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH DEWPTS
RISING INTO U50S AND L60S. MILD TEMPS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
RAINFALL. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NY
WITH LGT SHWR ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SHORE. THE SECOND REGION...IN THE FORM OF A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MCS...NOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WITH REDEVELOPING
ACTIVITY NOTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA. WITH DEWPOINTS
RESIDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT SEE TEMPORARY CLEARING. FOR NOW...HAVE
ELECTED TO OFFER AN IFR VSBY MENTION AT ELM AFTER 9Z AS INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CENTRAL PA MCS MAY LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS FCST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A LGT SHWR MENTION ADDED FOR SYR AND RME BASED ON
CURRENT LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO TODAY...FCST MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MENTIONS AT
BOTH ELM AND ITH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFORD LATER
SHIFTS THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADD THUNDER IF CONDITIONS DO IN FACT
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH LATER TODAY. FURTHER EAST...DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE BULK OF SHWR ACTIVITY WEST OF I-81.
LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW COMPLEX OF STORMS DIVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE NORTHERN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT IT
HAS A LOT LESS ACTIVITY PROBABLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SW
PA COMPLEX. WRF- ARW...NAM...GEM...AND NMM ALL BRING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WAVE INTO THE TWIN TIERS YET HAVE INITIALIZED WITH
SW PA COMPLEX TOTALLY MISSING. I AM THUS SIDING HRRR AND RUC13
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE THE SW PA COMPLEX AND ALSO KEEP THINGS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EARLY MORNING. SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
MEANWHILE HAS NEW STORMS DEVELOPING WHICH WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT I ANTICIPATE THAT PARTICULAR CLUSTER TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. IT DOES PROVIDE A HINT TO WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER
TODAY HOWEVER. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF QUEBEC TO MAINE/CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...INITIATING COOL AIR DAMMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...SETTING UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VICINITY OF
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. TRAILING END OF WAVE
CURRENTLY FIRING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...CONNECTING TO
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO NEAR ERIE PA...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER JUST AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. I THUS
HAVE PLACED HIGH CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER
LAKES FOR LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE
SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THOSE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER EAST THAT ACTIVITY MANAGES TO
PROCEED...THE DEEPER INTO THE MORE STABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW /VIA COOL
AIR DAMMING ALONG EAST COAST/ IT WILL GET. THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MOST. I DO NOT EVEN
INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO POCONOS.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY...DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN WEST AND
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN EAST...YET STILL 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES COULD EVEN
MANAGE 80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT TO WED NGT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN. IN WARM SECTOR WED AND THU WITH
DECENT SFC INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WEAK FORCING.
AS THE UL TROF MOVES EAST IT WILL FINALLY KICK THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS SHORT TERM SOME SOAKING RAINS
BUT MAJORITY OF TIME WILL BE DRY. INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH DEWPTS
RISING INTO U50S AND L60S. MILD TEMPS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PD STARTS OFF WITH H5 LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF IN THE WRN
GREAT LKS WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MEANDERING NR AREA THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SVRL WVS OF LOPRES WL RIDE UP
ALONG BNDRY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LKLY THUR NGT AND FRI AHD OF CDFNT.
WITH BNDRY ON OUR DOORSTEP LATE THUR NGT/FRI MRNG EXPECT CHCS FOR
THUNDER AT ANY TIME TO START OFF THE LONG TERM. WL WORD IT AS CHC
TSTMS FOR THUR NGT WITH LKLY SHOWERS/THUNDER DRG THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH TIMING LKLY TO BE NAILED DOWN THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST EURO IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/CMC ON PROGRESSION OF
FROPA WITH LATTER MODELS DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z SAT
WHILE EURO CLRS CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WX CONTS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ERN U.S. TROF
RMNS IN PLACE. LATEST GFS INDICATE H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AGAIN OVR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY THUS WL KEEP CHC POPS IN AFT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE NR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL UNDER
EXTENSIVE CLD CVR AND SHOWERY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PD. FNTL BNDRY WAVERING OVER THE
CWA. S/WV OVER MI COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION LATER TNGT NEAR THIS
BNDRY.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVNG WITH ISOLD --SHRA AND A BKN MID DECK.
AFTER 06Z...POTNL FOR CONVECTION TO DROP SEWD INTO CNTRL NY OR
DVLP IN-SITU ALONG THE BNDRY OVER CNTRL NY. BASICALLY...TAF FCSTS
WILL BE IN "NOWCAST" MODE ONCE SHRA/TSRA DVLP. FOR NOW WE INDICATE
A CHC FOR MVFR VSBY`S LATE TNGT AND EARLY TMRW MRNG ACRS CNTRL NY
IN SHRA. BIG QUESTIONS TMRW CONCERNING POTNL FOR CONVECTIVE
DVLPMNT. MANY SITES COULD SEE TSRA AND RESTRICTIONS...FOR NOW
WE`LL JUST INDICATE CHCS FOR SHRA AND MVFR VSBY`S AT A FEW SITES.
WINDS TNGT GNRLY L&V BECMG S TO SE ON TUE 10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUES NGT THROUGH THUR...MAINLY VFR, BUT POSSIBLE MVFR PDS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUR NGT/FRI...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR AREA.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER
IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK-UP AGAIN TODAY BUT LATEST 12 UTC NAM/
13 UTC RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BUMP UP SKY
COVER EAST AND LOWER SKY COVER WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
AT 6 AM CDT..LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ITS WIDE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS WINDS...WITH ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY DAY
- BUT WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE ON MONDAY. TONIGHT THE MAIN
CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES - WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FRONT RANGE FROM
NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO COLORADO.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN LEADS TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER MIXES WITH LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATED CU AND/OR TCU FORMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES IN TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL.
WE WILL BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE STATEMENTS DURING THE TUESDAY DAY
SHIFT...BUT WILL MENTION THE ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE ALL LOOKING SIMILAR. THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED INCLUDE
A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (WITH
HIGHS 55 TO 60) DUE TO A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH DAKOTA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS COLD UPPER LOW
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS. HOWEVER THIS WILL SLOWLY
CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS COLD UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND NUDGE IT
INLAND. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST US AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FINALLY APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE
WEST...AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
TO MONTANA THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
PERIOD FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ONLY TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM
THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE WAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE TRIMMED
POPS BACK FEELING THE NEW 00Z GUIDANCE WAS A BIT SLOWER TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WEST...TO 20 TO 30 MPH EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PICK UP AGAIN AROUND 16 UTC WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST ROUTES. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS...MORE EXPANSIVE EAST WILL
LIFT AND FLATTEN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINK CEILINGS WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER...JUST ABOVE MVFR...WHEN THEY DEVELOP AROUND THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK-UP AGAIN TODAY BUT LATEST 12 UTC NAM/
13 UTC RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BUMP UP SKY
COVER EAST AND LOWER SKY COVER WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
AT 6 AM CDT..LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ITS WIDE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS WINDS...WITH ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY DAY
- BUT WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE ON MONDAY. TONIGHT THE MAIN
CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES - WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FRONT RANGE FROM
NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO COLORADO.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN LEADS TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER MIXES WITH LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATED CU AND/OR TCU FORMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES IN TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL.
WE WILL BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE STATEMENTS DURING THE TUESDAY DAY
SHIFT...BUT WILL MENTION THE ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE ALL LOOKING SIMILAR. THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED INCLUDE
A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (WITH
HIGHS 55 TO 60) DUE TO A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH DAKOTA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS COLD UPPER LOW
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS. HOWEVER THIS WILL SLOWLY
CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS COLD UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND NUDGE IT
INLAND. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST US AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FINALLY APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE
WEST...AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
TO MONTANA THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
PERIOD FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ONLY TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM
THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE WAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE TRIMMED
POPS BACK FEELING THE NEW 00Z GUIDANCE WAS A BIT SLOWER TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFT
01Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM KDIK-KBIS-KISN. SCT TO BKN MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS KMOT-KJMS THROUGH 17 UTC...THEN INCREASING VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CEILING EXPECTED AT ALL AERODROMES
TONIGHT THROUGH 18 UTC WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ALREADY SEEING THE HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA
FILLING BACK IN WITH CUMULUS. WITH THE COLD POOL MOVING DOWN OVER
THE AREA TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS FROM KHCO
DOWN THROUGH KBJI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. ALL THESE ELEMENTS SEEM TO BE COVERED WELL SO
UPDATE WILL ONLY ADDRESS LATEST CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...LIKELY OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6AM
AND 8AM. THE BAUDETTE AREA IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...AND WILL
ISSUE A SHORT TERM FORECAST TO HANDLE THIS. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE INDICATES 925MB TEMPS AROUND -1C UNTIL THIS PRECIP ENDS
(FOR MAINLY THE LOW REGION...WITH WARMER 925MB TEMPS TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH). THE VSBY HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 2.5 MILES...AND THESE
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EQUATE TO ACCUMULATIONS ONLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...WITH THE ROADS REMAINING WET (OR JUST A BIT OF SLUSH).
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES. 00Z MODELS ALL AGREEABLE SO WILL
USE A BLEND. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...PROPAGATING ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PLACE A
500MB COLD POOL OVER THE REGION...AND LEAD TO SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F...WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK (ESPECIALLY IF
AFTERNOON CU IS ABLE TO DISSIPATE). NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
TODAY...SLIGHTLY LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...ALLOWING RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS
CONSIDERING MORE SOLAR WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE DEEP
ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION WILL FINALLY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING
AND A WARMER AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
60S BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. RIDGE AXIS APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS MN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A LEE-SIDE LOW ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
AFTER CUTTING BACK ALL BLEND POPS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL KEEP MID-RANGE CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) MONDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...TO MVFR
WITHIN THE VALLEY...TO IFR EAST OF THE VALLEY. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS (USED THE LATEST RAP AS GUIDANCE). THERE WILL
BE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED AND DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
THE DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...LIKELY OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6AM
AND 8AM. THE BAUDETTE AREA IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...AND WILL
ISSUE A SHORT TERM FORECAST TO HANDLE THIS. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE INDICATES 925MB TEMPS AROUND -1C UNTIL THIS PRECIP ENDS
(FOR MAINLY THE LOW REGION...WITH WARMER 925MB TEMPS TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH). THE VSBY HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 2.5 MILES...AND THESE
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EQUATE TO ACCUMULATIONS ONLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...WITH THE ROADS REMAINING WET (OR JUST A BIT OF SLUSH).
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES. 00Z MODELS ALL AGREEABLE SO WILL
USE A BLEND. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...PROPAGATING ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PLACE A
500MB COLD POOL OVER THE REGION...AND LEAD TO SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F...WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK (ESPECIALLY IF
AFTERNOON CU IS ABLE TO DISSIPATE). NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
TODAY...SLIGHTLY LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...ALLOWING RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS
CONSIDERING MORE SOLAR WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE DEEP
ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION WILL FINALLY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING
AND A WARMER AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
60S BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. RIDGE AXIS APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS MN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A LEE-SIDE LOW ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
AFTER CUTTING BACK ALL BLEND POPS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL KEEP MID-RANGE CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) MONDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...TO MVFR
WITHIN THE VALLEY...TO IFR EAST OF THE VALLEY. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS (USED THE LATEST RAP AS GUIDANCE). THERE WILL
BE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED AND DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. MINOR CHANGES
IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST
IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE OTHER THAN TRIM LOW
POPS FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST FRINGE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE DEFORMATION
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THIS EVENING AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL SEE DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. IT MAY BE
BREEZY THROUGH AROUND 9 PM BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS COULD HOLD ON OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH KJMS AND CARRINGTON 19 UTC BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIFTED WITH 40 KNOT WINDS AVAILABLE
TO WORK DOWN. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST HERE ALSO...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO LOOK INTO POSSIBLY EXTENDING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY.
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FLATTENING OUT SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST AREAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE
20S. MID 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE WINDS AND CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER TONIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH NICER THAN TODAY OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH NO RAIN...LESS WIND AND MORE SUN. ELSEWHERE...TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS
AND WINDS AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. EMBEDDED WAVE IS
DEPICTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK APPEARS MAINLY DRY.
12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
MORE ACTIVE FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL...HELPING TO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY-MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS
AND AT 14 KNOTS OR LESS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 12Z-15Z WHEN NORTHWEST
WINDS BEGIN INCREASING...REACHING 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFT 01Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
935 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH DISTURBANCES WITHIN IT PASSING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WARM FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
930 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE CWA. TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED. SCT
SHRA MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NE KY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING MOD SHRA MOVES IN FROM THE
W...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ONGOING IN N REACHES
OF SE OH ZONES AND ALSO N WV LOWLANDS CLOSE TO OH RIVER. DECENT
SSE DOWNSLOPING FLOW EXTENDING UP ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID LEVELS
REALLY SERVING TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SW VA/S WV/NE KY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN NO
CONVECTION AS OF YET. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THINGS
AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR POPS. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN AFORMENTIONED LOCATIONS AS THE HRRR KEEPS
AREA MAINLY DRY THIS EVE AND EVEN UP INTO SE OH AND N WV ONCE
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES OUT. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE GIVING STRONG
DEEP SSE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WATCH TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. WILL WAIT FOR
ACTIVITY ACROSS W KY TO MOVE IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY SHRA WITH PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AIRMASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC.
TOR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT. ALSO, ANY OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR MORE PLUS SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION SHOULD WAIN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW STALLED OVER OH AND EXTENDS DOWN INTO KY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AFTER A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES UP AND ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD SHOULD
BE AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2+ INCHES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE ISSUED AN FFA UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEATHER TURNS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIVE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU
EVENING WANE/EXIT QUICKLY...AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ROLLS ON
THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END FROM W
TO E. WHILE THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR ON MOVING THE FRONT E OF THE
AREA EARLY FRI NT...NAM12/CMC WERE SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION
WITH AN ANAFRONT LOOK TO IT. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BUT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER NAM/CMC CAMP. LOW CLOUDS LINGER INTO FRI.
TWO SIMILAR SYSTEMS THEN CROSS FRI AND SAT...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
THERE MAY STILL BE HINT OF INSTABILITY FRI SO INCLUDED THE SCHC FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY SAT...THE AIR MASS
IS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR THUNDER.
BLENDED IN THE MET FOR HIGHS AND LOWS EARLY ON...WITH SOME HELP FROM
THE NAM THU NT...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOWS FRI NT LOOKED GOOD. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MEX
AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS SAT...BARELY ABOVE 60 OVER THE LOWLANDS BENEATH
H85 TEMPS NEAR 0 C. NOW HAVE SAT COOLER THAN FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF MEAN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. WARM FRONT
ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THIS EVENING. INSERTED SOME VCTS AT A
FEW OF THE SITES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BUT BELIEVE TERMINALS WILL
AVOID A DIRECT HIT.
AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM W BY 09Z...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...WITH GENERAL MVFR VSBY FOLLOWED
BY LOWERING CIGS INTO LOW END MVFR AFTER 10Z. N TAF SITES SHOULD
STIFF ARM THE LOWER CIGS UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT MAY VARY OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/15/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...21/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
739 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH DISTURBANCES WITHIN IT PASSING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WARM FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ONGOING IN N REACHES OF
SE OH ZONES AND ALSO N WV LOWLANDS CLOSE TO OH RIVER. DECENT SSE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EXTENDING UP ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID LEVELS
REALLY SERVING TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SW VA/S WV/NE KY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN NO
CONVECTION AS OF YET. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THINGS
AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR POPS. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN AFORMENTIONED LOCATIONS AS THE HRRR KEEPS
AREA MAINLY DRY THIS EVE AND EVEN UP INTO SE OH AND N WV ONCE
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES OUT. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE GIVING STRONG
DEEP SSE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WATCH TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. WILL WAIT FOR
ACTIVITY ACROSS W KY TO MOVE IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY SHRA WITH PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AIRMASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC.
TOR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT. ALSO, ANY OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR MORE PLUS SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION SHOULD WAIN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW STALLED OVER OH AND EXTENDS DOWN INTO KY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AFTER A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES UP AND ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD SHOULD
BE AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2+ INCHES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE ISSUED AN FFA UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEATHER TURNS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIVE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU
EVENING WANE/EXIT QUICKLY...AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ROLLS ON
THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END FROM W
TO E. WHILE THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR ON MOVING THE FRONT E OF THE
AREA EARLY FRI NT...NAM12/CMC WERE SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION
WITH AN ANAFRONT LOOK TO IT. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BUT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER NAM/CMC CAMP. LOW CLOUDS LINGER INTO FRI.
TWO SIMILAR SYSTEMS THEN CROSS FRI AND SAT...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
THERE MAY STILL BE HINT OF INSTABILITY FRI SO INCLUDED THE SCHC FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY SAT...THE AIR MASS
IS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR THUNDER.
BLENDED IN THE MET FOR HIGHS AND LOWS EARLY ON...WITH SOME HELP FROM
THE NAM THU NT...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOWS FRI NT LOOKED GOOD. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MEX
AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS SAT...BARELY ABOVE 60 OVER THE LOWLANDS BENEATH
H85 TEMPS NEAR 0 C. NOW HAVE SAT COOLER THAN FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF MEAN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. WARM FRONT
ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THIS EVENING. INSERTED SOME VCTS AT A
FEW OF THE SITES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BUT BELIEVE TERMINALS WILL
AVOID A DIRECT HIT.
AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM W BY 09Z...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...WITH GENERAL MVFR VSBY FOLLOWED
BY LOWERING CIGS INTO LOW END MVFR AFTER 10Z. N TAF SITES SHOULD
STIFF ARM THE LOWER CIGS UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT MAY VARY OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/15/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION MILD AND RATHER
HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST AS THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF MY NERN ZONES...A NEW STORM
HAS POPPED ON THE RIDGE OVER SWRN CENTRE COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS
THE CU FIELD GROWING OVER THE SWRN HALF OF MY FCST AREA...WHERE
THE RAP DEPICTS CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J ALONG WITH AN ERODING CAP.
HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL COVERAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS
AS THE PATTERN NOW RESEMBLES SOMETHING MORE COMMON IN JULY WITH
PULSE STORMS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZATION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID.
MAXES WILL TOP OUT SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST...
WITH FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.
FOR TONIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ACTUALLY BE SHOVED BACK ALL THE WAY TO THE LAURELS...ALLOWING A
LOW LEVEL SERLY MARITIME FLOW TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 60S ARE ACTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...SOME
15-20 DEG...FOR MID MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE MARITIME FLOW WILL CAUSE WEDNESDAY TO START OFF ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEP MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGE - TROF -
RIDGE PATTERN COVERING THE CONTINENTAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE INTO A TROF - RIDGE -
TROF PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL
ENTAIL THE MAIN UPPER TROF NOW EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS STATES TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...AS AS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT LONGER.
PRIOR TO THAT...THE AMPLIFIED SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE NOW IN PLACE AND
ITS AFFECTS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY THUR...WITH
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.
AS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS POINT...RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED PUSH
INTO A REGION OF PW OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AS THE FRONT BECOMES
ALIGNED WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. ACCCORDINGLY CENTRAL PA IS IN THE NCEP/WPC
SLIGHT RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE FRONT/UPPER SHOULD EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST SAT MORNING...HOWEVER
A SECONDARY PUSH/SHORT WAVE OF COOLER AIR MAY COME THROUGH LATER ON
SATURDAY HELPING TO INVIGORATING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRIER BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING
FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TERMINALS ARE ALL VFR AS OF MID DAY...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORTS THAT GET HIT
BY THE POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARITIME AIR PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS. IT`S STILL
NOT CLEAR HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO
INVADE...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE GUIDANCE TO
INCLUDE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ALL THE TAFS.
ANTICIPATE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY WED AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INVOF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL PA.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR-MVFR WITH ISOLD-SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.
FRI...MVFR-IFR LKLY WITH N-S BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
SAT...VFR-MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION MILD AND RATHER
HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
JUST AS THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF MY NERN ZONES...A NEW STORM
HAS POPPED ON THE RIDGE OVER SWRN CENTRE COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS
THE CU FIELD GROWING OVER THE SWRN HALF OF MY FCST AREA...WHERE
THE RAP DEPICTS CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J ALONG WITH AN ERODING CAP.
HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL COVERAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS
AS THE PATTERN NOW RESEMBLES SOMETHING MORE COMMON IN JULY WITH
PULSE STORMS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZATION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID.
MAXES WILL TOP OUT SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST...
WITH FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.
FOR TONIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ACTUALLY BE SHOVED BACK ALL THE WAY TO THE LAURELS...ALLOWING A
LOW LEVEL SERLY MARITIME FLOW TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 60S ARE ACTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...SOME
15-20 DEG...FOR MID MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE MARITIME FLOW WILL CAUSE WEDNESDAY TO START OFF ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEP MIDWESTERN TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EAST COAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPS. HOW WARM
IT GETS HOWEVER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS/PCPN
FROM CONVECTION THAT MOVES EAST EACH MORNING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW DIGGING/AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT TOWARD PA INCREASING PCPN PROBS EACH DAY FROM WED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WED INTO AT
LEAST FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK UNSETTLED...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A HIGH CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. WITH THE SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT ALIGNED WITH THE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EVOLUTION OF THE SFC
FRONT AND HVY PCPN PATTERN IS A BIT DIFFERENT TODAY...NOT
SURPRISINGLY WITH MORE OF THE HEAVIEST PCPN BEING SHUNTED S OF
PA.
THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LOOK LIKE
THEY/LL LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.
DRIER BUT STILL COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TERMINALS ARE ALL VFR AS OF MID DAY...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORTS THAT GET HIT
BY THE POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARITIME AIR PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS. IT`S STILL
NOT CLEAR HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO
INVADE...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE GUIDANCE TO
INCLUDE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ALL THE TAFS.
ANTICIPATE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY WED AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INVOF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL PA.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR-MVFR WITH ISOLD-SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.
FRI...MVFR-IFR LKLY WITH N-S BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
SAT...VFR-MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MODIFY WARMER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SCT CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE TN BORDER AREA
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER. THINK THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS AND FOR OTHER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL
WORKSTATION WRF DRIFT MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
NC MTNS INTO ERN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
WHERE THERE IS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND SIGNS OF TOWERING CU ON THE
VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY. ELSEWHERE THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS
SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NC MTNS.
LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ESCARPMENT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY TUESDAY...WRN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
DISLODGE WED NIGHT AS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...A
SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL LIFT THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO THE CWFA AS EARLY AS THU
MRNG. A SECONDARY THREAT MAY BE POSED BY SEVERE WX BUT THE HEAVY RAIN
IS OF GREATER CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
NEARLY DUE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY WED EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE. GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT PWAT VALUES SURGING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY 06Z THU.
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS TO BE EXPECTED AND IS REFLECTED
IN QPF GUIDANCE FROM THE MAJOR MODELS. A FAIR NUMBER OF SREF AND GEFS
MEMBERS PRODUCE QPF OF OVER 1 INCH IN 6 HOURS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER END OF THE OPNL GUIDANCE RANGE AND WPC. THE EVENT LOOKS TO
BE TWO-PRONGED...AFFECTING THE BLUE RIDGE AREAS EARLIER ON AS THE LLJ
INTERCEPTS THE RIDGE...AND LATER AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE METRO. THE LATTER BECOMES
AN ISSUE LATE THU AFTN OR EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PRODUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE AT THIS TIME MOVING NWD FROM THE GA COAST. THIS ENHANCES
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ALSO SLOWS THE EWD MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ONCE BOTH WAVES OF
HEAVIER PRECIP COME WITHIN THE USUAL WINDOW FOR ISSUANCE.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY SATURATED AND LAPSE RATES ACCORDINGLY MARGINAL
DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS LOW BUT SHEAR
BECOMES QUITE STRONG LATE WED NIGHT. EXCEPT IN THE SW MTNS WHERE THE
FRONT PUSHES IN EARLY ON...OVERLAP OF THESE PARAMETERS CONTINUES THRU
THE DAY THU ACRS THE AREA SO CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
THAT SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS IN FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE PIEDMONT PRECIP TO
AN END DURING THE MORNING. AFTER A MORE SETTLED PERIOD...SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY KICK OFF LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND
GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS COULD RETURN MAINLY IN THE NRN MTNS. MAX TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LARGE ULVL LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS TO BEGIN THE EXT RANGE AND SLOWLY LIFT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OP MODELS WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH LITTLE OUTLYING DEVIATIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. SOME
SIGFNT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE SAT/SUN AND
THIS IS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR WELL WITH THE LOW END CHANCE POPS.
THE ATMOS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY AT THE SFC WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
THETA/E TROF ACCOMPANYING A CP HIPRES CENTER ACROSS THE GLAKES. THIS
WILL HOLD TD/S WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW NON/MTN
LCL/S TO AROUND 8 KFT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER ENERGY POCKETS
CROSSING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SAT INTO MID DAY SUN HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A FORCED PRECIP ENHANCEMENT. STILL DON/T SEE ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE FCST AS LFC/S
REMAIN TOO COOL AND A MLVL WARM LAYER PERSISTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT AND INCREASE TO LOW END CHANCES SAT
NIGHT AND SUN ACROSS THE MTNS.
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN SUN NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST
AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCORDINGLY GO TO NON/MENTIONABLE
MON AND TUE WITH LOWERING COLUMN MOISTURE. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
VERY PLEASANT PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON SUN WITH INCREASING MLVL
CLOUDINESS. THEN A GENERAL WARM UP TO NORMAL AND ABOVE MON/TUE WITH
TD/S HELD RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT CU DECK UP AROUND 5000
FEET WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. A FEW SHRA MAY YET DEVELOP AND
I/VE KEPT A VCSH GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MAX HEATING TDA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR STRATUS TONIGHT. LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...BUT THIS WILL BE
WELL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
ELSEHWERE...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NC MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM KAVL. I DID KEEP VCSH IN THE TAF...BUT HAVE
REMOVED ANY THUNDER. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...THOUGH WITH BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO FALL A LITTLE OVERNIGHT I DIDN/T GO ANY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S 2SM. VFR AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH 18 UTC WED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 86%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 74% LOW 49% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 86%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 89%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MODIFY WARMER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL
WORKSTATION WRF DRIFT MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
NC MTNS INTO ERN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
WHERE THERE IS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND SIGNS OF TOWERING CU ON THE
VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY. ELSEWHERE THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS
SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NC MTNS.
LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY TUESDAY...WRN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
DISLODGE WED NIGHT AS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...A
SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL LIFT THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO THE CWFA AS EARLY AS THU
MRNG. A SECONDARY THREAT MAY BE POSED BY SEVERE WX BUT THE HEAVY RAIN
IS OF GREATER CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
NEARLY DUE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY WED EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE. GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT PWAT VALUES SURGING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY 06Z THU.
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS TO BE EXPECTED AND IS REFLECTED
IN QPF GUIDANCE FROM THE MAJOR MODELS. A FAIR NUMBER OF SREF AND GEFS
MEMBERS PRODUCE QPF OF OVER 1 INCH IN 6 HOURS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER END OF THE OPNL GUIDANCE RANGE AND WPC. THE EVENT LOOKS TO
BE TWO-PRONGED...AFFECTING THE BLUE RIDGE AREAS EARLIER ON AS THE LLJ
INTERCEPTS THE RIDGE...AND LATER AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE METRO. THE LATTER BECOMES
AN ISSUE LATE THU AFTN OR EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PRODUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE AT THIS TIME MOVING NWD FROM THE GA COAST. THIS ENHANCES
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ALSO SLOWS THE EWD MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ONCE BOTH WAVES OF
HEAVIER PRECIP COME WITHIN THE USUAL WINDOW FOR ISSUANCE.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY SATURATED AND LAPSE RATES ACCORDINGLY MARGINAL
DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS LOW BUT SHEAR
BECOMES QUITE STRONG LATE WED NIGHT. EXCEPT IN THE SW MTNS WHERE THE
FRONT PUSHES IN EARLY ON...OVERLAP OF THESE PARAMETERS CONTINUES THRU
THE DAY THU ACRS THE AREA SO CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
THAT SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS IN FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE PIEDMONT PRECIP TO
AN END DURING THE MORNING. AFTER A MORE SETTLED PERIOD...SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY KICK OFF LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND
GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS COULD RETURN MAINLY IN THE NRN MTNS. MAX TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LARGE ULVL LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS TO BEGIN THE EXT RANGE AND SLOWLY LIFT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OP MODELS WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH LITTLE OUTLYING DEVIATIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. SOME
SIGFNT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE SAT/SUN AND
THIS IS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR WELL WITH THE LOW END CHANCE POPS.
THE ATMOS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY AT THE SFC WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
THETA/E TROF ACCOMPANYING A CP HIPRES CENTER ACROSS THE GLAKES. THIS
WILL HOLD TD/S WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW NON/MTN
LCL/S TO AROUND 8 KFT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER ENERGY POCKETS
CROSSING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SAT INTO MID DAY SUN HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A FORCED PRECIP ENHANCEMENT. STILL DON/T SEE ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE FCST AS LFC/S
REMAIN TOO COOL AND A MLVL WARM LAYER PERSISTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT AND INCREASE TO LOW END CHANCES SAT
NIGHT AND SUN ACROSS THE MTNS.
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN SUN NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST
AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACCORDINGLY GO TO NON/MENTIONABLE
MON AND TUE WITH LOWERING COLUMN MOISTURE. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
VERY PLEASANT PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON SUN WITH INCREASING MLVL
CLOUDINESS. THEN A GENERAL WARM UP TO NORMAL AND ABOVE MON/TUE WITH
TD/S HELD RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT CU DECK UP AROUND 5000
FEET WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. A FEW SHRA MAY YET DEVELOP AND
I/VE KEPT A VCSH GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MAX HEATING TDA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR STRATUS TONIGHT. LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...BUT THIS WILL BE
WELL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
ELSEHWERE...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NC MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM KAVL. I DID KEEP VCSH IN THE TAF...BUT HAVE
REMOVED ANY THUNDER. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...THOUGH WITH BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO FALL A LITTLE OVERNIGHT I DIDN/T GO ANY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S 2SM. VFR AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH 18 UTC WED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 83% LOW 56% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 85%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MODIFY WARMER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NC MTNS...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING. THE
LATEST RUC BRINGS A WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NC MTNS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION
JUST A LITTLE.
AS OF 905 AM EDT TUESDAY...A BAND OF ELEVATED TCU IS WORKING SLOWLY
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE CAPPING INVERSION ON THE GSO SOUNDING AND THE RATHER WARM
LLVLS ON THE FFC SOUNDING...I DON/T SEE THESE TOWERS AMOUNTING TO
MUCH AS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT POP
GRIDS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
NEEDED.
AS OF DAYBREAK...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...BUT
OTHERWISE FAIR. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN STARTS
TO WARM UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 13Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD TO DESCRIBE OUR
EXPECTED WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THE BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE...POKING WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THAT MEANS PRECIP CHANCES THAT FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN...THE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY
SEEN IN NAM FCST SOUNDINGS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE ON ACCOUNT OF THAT
MODEL KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHEREAS IN REALITY THE DEWPOINT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY
TO MIX OUT DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S OR EVEN UPPER 50S AT THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD DO THE TRICK AND
PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST...A CONCLUSION
WHICH IS ALSO BORNE OUT BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OWING TO THE DRY
AIR AT MID LEVELS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE IMPROVING
SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING UP FROM GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS KEPT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF STATES...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL LOSE IS GRIP ON
THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON WEDNESDAY...SUPPLANTED BY A MODEST MOIST
INFLOW FORM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL
FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...MOVING TO W
TN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES GA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE BEST MOIST INFLOW REACHES OUR AREA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE FORMING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS SHOW ROBUST SHEAR BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AND A MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT...WHERE NC...GA AND SC MEET. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING OUR
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
DAY...AND INCREASING CLOUDS AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS
COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE ONLY BEGUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER WI...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST...AND A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW OPENS UP AND
REACHES THE QUEBEC BORDER BY SUNDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH
REACHES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE PROGRESSION...LEADING TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER GA AND THE
CAROLINAS.
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. A MID LEVEL COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY TO THE POINT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE FAVORED.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE SURFACE HIGH...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...THEN WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AS THE COOL AIRMASS
MODIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT CU DECK UP AROUND 5000
FEET WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. A FEW SHRA MAY YET DEVELOP AND
I/VE KEPT A VCSH GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MAX HEATING TDA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR STRATUS TONIGHT. LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...BUT THIS WILL BE
WELL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
ELSEHWERE...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NC MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM KAVL. I DID KEEP VCSH IN THE TAF...BUT HAVE
REMOVED ANY THUNDER. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...THOUGH WITH BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO FALL A LITTLE OVERNIGHT I DIDN/T GO ANY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S 2SM. VFR AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH 18 UTC WED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 65% LOW 31%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1128 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NC MTNS...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING. THE
LATEST RUC BRINGS A WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NC MTNS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION
JUST A LITTLE.
AS OF 905 AM EDT TUESDAY...A BAND OF ELEVATED TCU IS WORKING SLOWLY
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE CAPPING INVERSION ON THE GSO SOUNDING AND THE RATHER WARM
LLVLS ON THE FFC SOUNDING...I DON/T SEE THESE TOWERS AMOUNTING TO
MUCH AS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT POP
GRIDS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
NEEDED.
AS OF DAYBREAK...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...BUT
OTHERWISE FAIR. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN STARTS
TO WARM UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 13Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD TO DESCRIBE OUR
EXPECTED WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THE BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE...POKING WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THAT MEANS PRECIP CHANCES THAT FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN...THE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY
SEEN IN NAM FCST SOUNDINGS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE ON ACCOUNT OF THAT
MODEL KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHEREAS IN REALITY THE DEWPOINT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY
TO MIX OUT DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S OR EVEN UPPER 50S AT THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD DO THE TRICK AND
PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST...A CONCLUSION
WHICH IS ALSO BORNE OUT BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OWING TO THE DRY
AIR AT MID LEVELS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE IMPROVING
SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING UP FROM GEORGIA AND ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS KEPT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF STATES...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL LOSE IS GRIP ON
THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON WEDNESDAY...SUPPLANTED BY A MODEST MOIST
INFLOW FORM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL
FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...MOVING TO W
TN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES GA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE BEST MOIST INFLOW REACHES OUR AREA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE FORMING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS SHOW ROBUST SHEAR BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AND A MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT...WHERE NC...GA AND SC MEET. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING OUR
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
DAY...AND INCREASING CLOUDS AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS
COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE ONLY BEGUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER WI...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST...AND A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW OPENS UP AND
REACHES THE QUEBEC BORDER BY SUNDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH
REACHES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE PROGRESSION...LEADING TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER GA AND THE
CAROLINAS.
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. A MID LEVEL COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY TO THE POINT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE FAVORED.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE SURFACE HIGH...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...THEN WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AS THE COOL AIRMASS
MODIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PERSISTENT
FCST. THERE COULD BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AROUND THE NC
PIEDMONT FIRST THING...SIMILAR TO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP
THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASE FROM THE SW BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT CU
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MIDDAY WITH BASES IN THE 050 TO 060 RANGE.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AGAIN WITH SUNSET AND WIND WILL GO LIGHT S
AGAIN.
ELSEHWERE...PERSISTENCE. SIMILAR TO KCLT. VERY LOW IFR VISIBILITY AT
KAVL SHOULD IMPROVE BY 13Z OR SO. KAND ALSO HAS SOME CHANCE AT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT
KAVL. OTHER SITES HAVE TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 77%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
LONG WAVE TROF JUST EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. LONG WAVES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
MOVING LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AMPLIFICATION THAT HAD BEEN UNDERWAY
HAS CEASED. SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LONG WAVE
TROF OVER OUR CWA. ONE HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH ANOTHER VERY
SUBTLE ONE JUST BARELY VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP APPROACHING
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER NE WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WELL ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT WAVE
LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER NE WYOMING INTO THE BLACK HILLS.
THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IN MODEST 700 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SHOWN BY THE NAM. TOMORROW NIGHT THERE IS A HINT OF
ANOTHER WAVE...BUT LESS CERTAINTY ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE.
CONVECTION IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE GFS FORECASTS OF 500MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.
WITH STRONG SFC HEATING...THIS IMPLIES CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND USED THE NAM FOR
SURFACE WINDS...WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN AFTN SPEEDS.
BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN QUITE COLD LATELY...I DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FAST
MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE NW CONUS. UPPER FLOW WOULD THEN BECOME MORE SWRLY
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SE. THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2014
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A FEW -TSRA...WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
705 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND WEST TN OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TO READJUST THE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED
ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
JCL
&&
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
SENT OUT A FFA CANCELLING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MS WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVING MOVED
EAST OF OUR AREA.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
CURRENTLY...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED NEAR CORINTH MS AT
18Z...TRACKING SLOWLY NNE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NE
MS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS MOVING EAST. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR EXTREME NE MS AND THE SE
PART OF WEST TN WHERE SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
INCREASING SHEAR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS
BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY SO A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN MID TN THIS EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT SO WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OF EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY 4 PM. DROPPED POPS SOME
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ASSOCD WITH SFC LOW LIFTS OUT A LITTLE
SOONER THOUGH KEPT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT SINCE THE UPPER
TROF WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOOD THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING DESPITE PLENTIFUL
CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WOBBLE ON OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/ AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A COUPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN/MS BORDER...TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS WILL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS AT MKL AND
TUP. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. A TRANSITION TO VFR WEATHER WILL OCCUR AT OR JUST BEYOND
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT JBR AND MEM. MKL
AND TUP MAY STILL FLIRT WITH THE MVFR STRATOCU THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND WEST TN OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TO READJUST THE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED
ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
JCL
UPDATE... /ISSUED 442 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
SENT OUT A FFA CANCELLING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MS WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVING MOVED
EAST OF OUR AREA.
JCL
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
CURRENTLY...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED NEAR CORINTH MS AT
18Z...TRACKING SLOWLY NNE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NE
MS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS MOVING EAST. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR EXTREME NE MS AND THE SE
PART OF WEST TN WHERE SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
INCREASING SHEAR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS
BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY SO A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN MID TN THIS EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT SO WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OF EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY 4 PM. DROPPED POPS SOME
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ASSOCD WITH SFC LOW LIFTS OUT A LITTLE
SOONER THOUGH KEPT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT SINCE THE UPPER
TROF WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOOD THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING DESPITE PLENTIFUL
CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WOBBLE ON OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/ AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A COUPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN/MS BORDER...TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS WILL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MIXED FLIGHT RULES WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH JBR
AND MEM...WHERE WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AND GUSTING FROM 10 KTS TO
AROUND 18 KTS AND CEILINGS ARE IMPROVING. FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH MKL AND TUP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER AT
MKL AND TUP THROUGH 22Z. CEILINGS AT ALL SITES WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT JBR AROUND 09Z AND ELSEWHERE
AFTER 14Z.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1233 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014/
UPDATE...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS TURNING
TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE ONE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHEAST
TX. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING INDICATED A
SBCAPE OF 3700 J/KG WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.58
INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A
SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WAS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL...WITH
THIS CONVECTION MOVING TO NORTH. THE LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATER
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEGINS FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED TO REMOVE OUTDATED WORDING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO
EXTEND SMALL POPS A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
MS IF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS HOLD TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014/
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT AND CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. TO THE EAST...ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
SOUTH...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING HAS
SUPPORTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PERSISTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
TO THE WEST OF THE RIVER...THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TRENDING
WEAKER BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA...AS THEY BEGIN TO PUSH
AHEAD OF THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT THAT WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER
WEST.
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD FALL APART DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...BEFORE NEW ACTIVITY FORMS ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND ONLY ADVANCE AS
FAR EAST AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
FURTHER EAST...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED PULSE TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THIS
TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...IT MAY TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL
TO EVEN POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS IT SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINING WARM
SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER...INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF
THE WARM SECTOR AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. LATER SHIFTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND WILL
PROVIDE FORECAST UPDATES AS NEEDED.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ANYWHERE FROM 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WITH THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.AVIATION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE NOSING OVER THE AREA WITH ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY BACKING
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE WHILE A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
WEST TEXAS LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPIT OUT...MOSTLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SKIES
SHOULD TREND CLEAR AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COLD DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT 20-25 MPH WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST
THIS MORNING. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SPREADING MODEST DEEP LIFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE
AREA WHILE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE EFFECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES
DIFFICULT. THE WRF/NAM WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE WET TODAY FOR A NUMBER
OF RUNS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THOUGH HAS RETAINED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER SIGNAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER TODAY...WHILE THE
HOUR-BY-HOUR HRRR SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY WETTER AS
THESE SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MATCH UP BETTER. WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING ON THE CAP-ROCK. THESE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD EXTEND JUST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL ZONES BUT
EITHER WAY WE DO NOT EXPECT A BIG DEAL. QUITE COOL AIRMASS TODAY
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND AS SKIES CLEAR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO TRENDING LOWER...SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT ON THE CAPROCK. WE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND ADDED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR
WEST/NORTHWESTERN 5 COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY GIVING WAY
TO UPSLOPE WINDS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
DEPICTING LIGHT QPF VALUES ON FRIDAY MORNING UNDER THIS UPSLOPE
FLOW. IT DEVELOPS WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
DIFFERS WITH THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE MOIST PORTION. LOW STRATUS
MAY BE THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW. FROM THE EARLY
PORTION TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS A TROUGH FORMS NEAR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING UNDER THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 32 67 39 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 62 36 67 39 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 62 37 67 40 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 63 37 68 40 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 38 69 43 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 63 37 69 41 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 37 69 41 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 67 43 73 44 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 64 39 71 43 80 / 20 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 44 72 44 81 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...
COLD DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT 20-25 MPH WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST
THIS MORNING. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SPREADING MODEST DEEP LIFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE
AREA WHILE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE EFFECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES
DIFFICULT. THE WRF/NAM WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE WET TODAY FOR A NUMBER
OF RUNS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THOUGH HAS RETAINED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER SIGNAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER TODAY...WHILE THE
HOUR-BY-HOUR HRRR SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY WETTER AS
THESE SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MATCH UP BETTER. WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING ON THE CAP-ROCK. THESE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD EXTEND JUST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL ZONES BUT
EITHER WAY WE DO NOT EXPECT A BIG DEAL. QUITE COOL AIRMASS TODAY
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND AS SKIES CLEAR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO TRENDING LOWER...SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT ON THE CAPROCK. WE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND ADDED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR
WEST/NORTHWESTERN 5 COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY GIVING WAY
TO UPSLOPE WINDS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
DEPICTING LIGHT QPF VALUES ON FRIDAY MORNING UNDER THIS UPSLOPE
FLOW. IT DEVELOPS WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
DIFFERS WITH THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE MOIST PORTION. LOW STRATUS
MAY BE THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW. FROM THE EARLY
PORTION TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS A TROUGH FORMS NEAR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING UNDER THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 32 67 39 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 62 36 67 39 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 62 37 67 40 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 63 37 68 40 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 38 69 41 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 63 37 69 41 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 37 69 41 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 67 43 73 44 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 64 39 71 43 80 / 20 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 44 72 44 81 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.
&&
$$
05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...CONVECTION DEVELOPED QUICKLY ALONG THE BRIM OF THE WARM
SECTOR AND BASICALLY CUT OFF THE LOCAL REGION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ENDED BOTH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION AS BOTH
THREATS HAVE GONE TO THE EAST.
THE MAIN FOCUS NOW IS ON THE COLD FRONT WHICH JUST WENT THROUGH
ROCHESTER MN AND CHARLES CITY IOWA. TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE LOW
70S TO THE MID 50S WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT PASSES. DRIZZLE IS ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AND WILL LAST FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNTIL DRIER
850MB AIR COMES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES AND IMPACTS TONIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. HARD TO
DEFINE A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF AN
ELONGATED FEATURE ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA. A WARM FRONT LOOKED TO EXTEND ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 500 J/KG OF SB CAPE WAS ALONG
INTERSTATE 90 BUT THIS INCREASED TO ALMOST 2000 J/KG ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12.18Z RAP SUGGESTS
THESE HIGHER CAPE VALUES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTS THIS IS
PRIMARILY A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
LARGE HAIL MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOR ANY STORMS THAT GET
INTO THE AREA AND CAN ORIENT WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR
VECTORS...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW...NOT REALLY SEEING ANY
LOCALIZED BACKING OF THE WINDS TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE LINE OF ACTIVITY ACROSS IOWA INTO MISSOURI
TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AND
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE LINED UP THE RAIN
CHANCES WITH 80 PERCENT OVER THIS AREA TRAILING BACK TO ABOUT A 40
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL ESSENTIALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE DRY BY 12Z TUESDAY.
AFTER TONIGHT...SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THANKS TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE
DEFORMATION AREA OF RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW COULD
EXTEND BACK INTO THE AREA AND WILL HAVE THE SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS SEVERAL
WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
COOL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BUT THEN START TO MODERATE FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
IFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO LSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. DRIZZLE AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO OCCURRING...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WITH THE
LOW CEILINGS BETWEEN 500-900FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
AS THE STORMS COME IN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT...THE
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN DROP PRODUCTION
INSTEAD OF HAIL. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...WHICH THE 12.18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TO BE AROUND 3500
METERS. WHILE THE QPF THAT FALLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY BE AN INCH OR LESS...IT WILL BE FALLING ON GROUND
THAT RECEIVED UP TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GROUND BEING
SATURATED FROM THESE PREVIOUS RAINS...THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD
STILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS AND WILL CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1121 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BETTER 500MB
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SURFACE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES OUT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND CAPE IS DIMINISHING. SURFACE L0W PRESSURE OVER
WEST CENTRAL WI WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER INTO EASTERN IOWA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AS WELL.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AMPLE MOISTURE AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL
OVER 1.5 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE TAPERING OFF WITH THE
CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR
RISING RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGES.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HRRR
AND OTHER MESO MODELS TIME THAT FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND
4 AM AND SOUTHEAST WI 6-7 AM.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN BUT LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING AND SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING
SHOWERS.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN RECOVER TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM SINCE WEB CAMS SHOWED
IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES OVER THE LAKESHORE DUE TO THE RECENT
THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE VISIBILITIES TO DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL DRIER AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE FROM ERN IA INTO WRN WI AREA WILL LIFT TO
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PLENTY OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNING.
SPC MESO CHARTS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS
ESPECIALLY INTO SC WI. SO HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ALL FORMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOGENESIS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SETTING UP FAR SRN WI WILL ONLY ADD TO THAT CONCERN.
ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY FIRING ACRS NRN IL. 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-1KM
SHEAR GETS A LITTLE BETTER MOVING FROM IL INTO WI. LATEST HRRR
SHOWING IA DEVELOPMENT SPREADS ACRS SRN WI LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER BY THEN. TWO AREAS RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS...ONE BEING IN THE NW CWA NEAR THE DELLS AND THE OTHER
IN THE SE. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ON THE MOVE BUT ANY TRAINING ALONG THE OUTFLOW COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE INTO CANADA WITH COLD FRONT
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHRA IN ERN CWA DURG THE
MRNG HRS. UPPER FLOW IS STILL SOUTHWEST SO THIS WILL LIKELY CARRY
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF 850 FRONT TO MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SE 1/2. THEN WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WE CAN TAKE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES OFF THE 925 TEMPS. SO TURNING COOLER...LESS HUMID AND LIKELY
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS
SKY COVER SUGGEST THIS... ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING LOW LEVEL
COOL POOL AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A QUIET PERIOD AS DRY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI. 85H
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP
THE LOWEST LEVELS STIRRED ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MOSTLY 40
TO 45F.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PRECIP
THREAT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER IL MAY BRING
SOME -RA TO SOUTHEAST WI WED NGT INTO THU. HOWEVER LATEST CANADIAN
A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN MY
SOUTHEAST...DROPPING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE AS
EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE FAVORS RAIN...HOWEVER IF SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING WERE TO
TAKE PLACE...THEN COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AT
TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE GTLAKES THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED PERIOD OF COLD NORTHWEST WINDS REINFORCING CHILLY AIR OVER
SRN WI INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S
SEVERAL NIGHTS. WL NEED TO WATCH NIGHT TIME CLOUD COVER AND THINK
ABOUT FROST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NEXT WAVE OF STORMS APPROACHING FROM IOWA
WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. ISOLATED STORMS FIRING VCNTY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NRN IL. THESE MAY BECOME SVR. STORMS IN IA MOVG
INTO WI THIS EVE MAY BE SVR AS WELL. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LESS
ACTIVITY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES ONCE THIS SURGE
PASSES. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP TSRA CHANCES DUE TO APPROACHING
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER. DENSE FOG
CONCERNS ARE NORTH OF TAF SITES.
MARINE...WILL RETAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH LATER IN THE NIGHT
FOR PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN AS THAT AREA ENTRENCHED IN THE
FOGGY CONDITIONS WITH COOL FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA
YESTERDAY BECAME ABSORBED WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS ENDED UP NOT COOLING
THE UPPER LEVELS MUCH WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
RIDGE AMPLIFLYING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST, A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT INCREASING TO NEAR TWO
INCHES BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
LOOKING VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING WITH CAPE AT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. DUE TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT BE A FAST MOVER BUT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE EAST COAST AS CONVECTION
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THIS COULD AID IN SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE CONVECTION WILL STILL LACK
ROBUST UPLIFT BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE LOCALLY RUN HIGH RESOLUTION WRF SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE HRRR AS OF THIS WRITING ONLY GOES OUT TO 19Z BUT ALSO SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 17Z AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
WILL THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH AND IF THIS VERIFIES WOULD BE SOME OF THE DRIEST
AIR FOR MAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE 1948. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG BOTH
COASTS WHICH ARE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. THE LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A LARGE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY SLOWLY VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, SEAS WILL BUILD OVER
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE GULF STREAM IN THE ATLANTIC TO
POSSIBLE SCA CRITERIA. WIND AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 72 81 68 / 70 50 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 83 69 / 70 60 30 10
MIAMI 85 73 83 68 / 70 50 30 10
NAPLES 85 71 82 64 / 60 40 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.AVIATION...
AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PICKING UP WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
SOON THE GULF. THIS ACTIVITY MAY QUELL FOR A WHILE LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT HAVE JUST KEPT SHRA IN AS PREDOMINATE FOR THE TIME
BEING. THEN TOMORROW, AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER, THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THUS A
PROB 30 GROUP AT EACH SITE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. WINDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. OF COURSE,
THIS IS NOT INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS INVOF TS. THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TURN THE WINDS NW
LATER TONIGHT, AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE 3...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH REST OF THE NIGHT AND PUSH
WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE LAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE 3...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE 2...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO HAVE
LOWER THE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOW CHANCE CAT FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING BACK SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL SHOW A UP TREND IN POPS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE 2...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR FRIDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA PUSHING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT WITH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A
SURGE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LACKING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST. CURIOUSLY THE HRRR MODEL DID NOT INDICATE INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE
THE OUTLIER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF. LIKELY SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH REGIONAL WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A PRE-CAUTIONARY SMALL CRAFT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 73 82 67 / 70 40 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 83 69 / 70 40 30 10
MIAMI 85 73 84 69 / 70 40 30 10
NAPLES 84 72 81 64 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY AND COOL TEMPERATURES BY
MID MORNING. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
AN OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DESPITE PWAT VALUES NEAR PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
CWA SEVERAL FACTORS PROVING DELETERIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. RELATIVE BREVITY OF MOISTURE PLUME/CONTINUED
DOWNSTREAM FOCUS PER DRY SLOT INTRUSION AS SYSTEM OCCLUSAL COMMENCES
WITH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE DECAYS IN
DEFERENCE TO ARDENT DIGGING OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE.
FURTHERMORE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AOB 10KFT ALONG WITH USUALLY RAPID
VARIANCE AND/OR HIGH VELOCITY OF MESOBEATA ELEMENTS COUNTERING
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES. WITH BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
WELL EAST OF CWA HAVE DROPPED TSRA MENTION THIS MORNING AS FORCED
PARCEL ASCENT REMAINING QUITE ELEVATED ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH BEST DYNAMICS /STRONGEST 925-8H JET STREAK/ LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTL/ERN OH. DIFFICULT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN CWA WHERE WARM SECTOR PROXIMITY
REFLECTED THIS AM. FAVORED MODIFICATION OF 3 HOURLY TEMP CURVE
TOWARD HIGHER RES NEAR TERM BLEND TO EXTRACT HIGH/LOW IN NEAR TERM.
CYCLONIC 925 MB FLOW WITH THERMAL CORE ACROSS WRN HALF GREAT LAKES
FAVORS THICK CLOUD COVER AND SIDE MORE PESSIMISTICALLY THAN
NAM/ARW/SREF PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST AND NOTE THAT LATEST RAP BUFKIT
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE STUBBORN STRATOCU INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE NEAR MN/IA/SD BORDER TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
NRN IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO NWRN IN BY DAYBREAK WITH SMALL CHANCE SHRA
POPS GIVEN DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION AND CONTD MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT
FALLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHEARING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OH
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR PROGS, DECENT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE/CONVERGENCE
INTO AT LEAST OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN SUPPORTS BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO JET SUPPORT/WEAK
DEFORMATION WITH SHEARING MID LVL WAVE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS
NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY (15-20F BELOW NORMAL). CONTINUED TO FAVOR
WARMER RAW GUIDANCE OVER MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MINS GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT/CLOUDS.
UPPER TROUGH/BROAD CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN INTO ONTARIO
AND NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME REMNANT SFC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN (AFTN) SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DEEPER
MIXING/MORE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/CLEARING SKIES.
QUIET WX WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. NEARING THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK AS CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED/ENHANCED WAVES RIDE OVER A PROGGED 588-590DAM LOWER MS
VALLEY 5H RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR KMIE AT 05 UTC TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12 UTC. DRY SLOT ALLOWING
RAINFALL RATES TO QUICKLY TAPER. HOWEVER WELL MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO FEATURE CIGS BELOW FUEL/ALT REQUIREMENTS AND
LIKELY SETTLING INTO IFR RANGE LATER THIS AM. GRADUAL SUBCLOUD
EROSION THROUGH THE DAY TO PROVIDE FOR SIG IMPROVEMENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WV LOOP AND ANALYSIS OF RAP H5 HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP TROUGH FROM
PARENT UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY TO ONE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DROPPING SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ORIGIN IN THE
EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA FM SE CONUS
TO CENTRL GREAT LAKES. THUS FAR PRECIPITATION IS AS CLOSE AS EAST
CENTRAL WI AND FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. BAND OF RAIN IS ALONG AND
EAST OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON LK
MICHIGAN. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR BLO H6...AND THIS IS SO
FAR RESTRICTING WESTWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION. OVER THE MQT
CWA THERE IS A THICK SHIELD OF MID CLOUDS WHICH HAS MAINLY HELD
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY EXCEPTION IS INTERIOR
WEST WHERE TEMPS HAVE LOCALLY DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S.
FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS LIFTS ALMOST DUE NORTH TOWARD
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIG
INTO THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIP TO THE SE SUPPORTED BY THE FRONT AT H7
TO TRY TO BACK WESTWARD INTO AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING. BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SFC T/TD
COULD SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ONCE PRECIP BEGINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD THEN EXPAND FOR ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF
OF CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE/H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND SWATH OF HIGHER H7-H85 RH ALONG AND WEST OF H85-H7 LOWS...
SHOWING UP AS ENHANCED CLOUD ON WV LOOP OVER IA AND WI..LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE HURON. NORTH WINDS ON
EDGE OF SFC-H85 LOWS MAY ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF PRECIP AS FAR WEST
AS NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS PRECIP
WOULD BEGIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND SNOW WOULD BE THE
MAIN PTYPE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND
SINCE THIS IS OCCURRING DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES BY EVENING OVER
EAST AS STRONGER LIFT/DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OUTWEIGH THESE OTHER
FACTORS.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WILL BE ONGOING OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS SHORTWAVE/LARGER SCALE ASCENT IS LIFTING THROUGH.
BEGINNING TO THINK WEST EDGE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE PULLED
FARTHER WEST...PERHAPS TO CMX-LNL LINE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MAY
BE NUDGED WEST WITH THE ADDITIONAL INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE COMPLETE PHASING BTWN
THESE FEATURES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT PRECIP PATTERN SOMEWHAT. THINK
THAT THE EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FOR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AS THE NORTH WINDS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING.
SOUNDINGS POINT TO SLR/S STRUGGLING TO 10:1 BUT MORE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL HELP THIS OUT SOME. CURRENT FORECAST USED BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BIT OF 00Z NAM TO PICK UP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BETTER. THIS RESULTED IN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
CONSTANT THEME WITH THIS SYSTEM...THINGS LOOK TO BE CHANGING AGAIN.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN ENHANCED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST
TRACK OF SYSTEM...THINK THAT THE 06Z NAM RUN WHICH SHOWS ROUGHLY
DOUBLE OF THE TOTAL QPF IT DID ON THE 00Z RUN COULD BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. MAY BE OVERPLAYING THINGS SOME THOUGH. IF THIS IDEA IS MORE
IN LINE...THEN AREAS FROM KEWEENAW TO DELTA COUNTY WOULD SEE AROUND
1 INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT...WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL IN BARAGA
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES COULD END UP WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES...MAYBE 4
INCHES.
NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT LATEST
DATA AND MAKE A CALL IF ONE IS NEEDED. GREATEST CHANCE THAT THE SNOW
WOULD IMPACT ROADS WOULD NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS BLYR
SUFFICIENTLY COOLS...BUT THEN THE QUESTION IS WILL THE SNOWFALL
RATES BE ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS PRETTY MUCH HERE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROF (500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WITH AXIS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO START THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENED
TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR PERHAPS A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT IS SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY
ROUNDING RIDGE AND THEN HEADING INTO THE LINGERING NE TROF. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO START
THE LONG TERM WILL MODERATE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL MID TO LATE MAY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT FARTHER AHEAD...THERE ARE
STILL NO INDICATIONS OF SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SETTING UP IN
THE NEXT WEEK TO 14 DAYS. AFTER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROF
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRY DAYS SHOULD SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
AGGRESSIVELY SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED PCPN ENCROACH ON DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S
FROM HUDSON BAY. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE SHRA REACH WRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE E STAYS DRY.
BEGINNING FRI...DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS) IN THE MORNING...MAINLY
FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WHERE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID THE PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE SHOWN SWINGING N ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N THRU ERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WHICH ALSO LEADS TO BEST DEEP
MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTING N...PCPN WILL BE DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BY AFTN...PCPN WILL TURN TO
SCT SHOWERY AS STEADIER SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS AND MID MAY DAYTIME
HEATING THRU CLOUD COVER GENERATES SOME INSTABILITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO WORK TO CHANGE PTYPE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM (UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL IN THE MORNING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUM WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH
TEMPS NOT REACHING 40F IN SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F FAR SCNTRL.
FRI NIGHT...COVERAGE OF LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS THE
CLOSED LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS.
ON SAT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND S THRU
THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER TROF...COLD POOL ALOFT AND MID MAY INSOLATION
WILL CONSPIRE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SCT SHRA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND WHILE AREAS NEAR THE
LAKES COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABILIZING MARINE LAYER
BEHIND INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZES. BEST CHC OF SHRA WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR CNTRL. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C AT 12Z SAT...PCPN SHOULD
BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN CAUSE
THE PTYPE TO BECOME ONLY LIQUID IN THE AFTN...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW IN THE AFTN IF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.
SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE
NE AND WEAKENS...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES ARE FCST TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTED
THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH FEATURE AND
HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STABLE AIR
OVER CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TO PREVENT ANY OF THESE SFC BASED -SHRA
FROM REACHING UPPER MI. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...FCST 850MB TEMPS AROUND
2C ON SUN AND 5C ON MON SHOULD ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60F
AND INTO THE 60S RESPECTIVELY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. EARLY SUN AND MON MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE 20S AT SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TIMING OF
FEATURE AND HOW QUICKLY PCPN SPREADS INTO DRY AIR MASS EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S FROM HUDSON BAY STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING E TO REFLECT THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT /GUSTS NEARING 25KTS OUT OF
THE N AT SAW BY LATE MORNING/ IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MN/ONTARIO...AND A LOW SLIDING FROM INDIANA AT DAYBREAK TO E
LOWER MI AND GREATER LAKE HURON BY 18Z THURSDAY. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF UPSLOPE N WINDS...SAW COULD GET SOME RAIN AND SNOW BY 19Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CMX AND IWD THIS
PERIOD WHILE RAIN AND SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MOVE INTO SAW BY
EARLY THU AFTERNOON REMAINING INTO THU EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY AND THEN
TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRI EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25KT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20KT AND EVEN UNDER 10KT AT TIMES UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN RIVERS OF CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI. NO FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ONLY FLOOD ADVYS REMAIN FOR
STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AND FOR THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AT WITCH
LAKE...REPUBLIC AND CRYSTAL FALLS.
FORTUNATELY...PCPN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OCCURRING
MOSTLY TODAY THRU FRI MORNING...WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE SO THAT
RIVERS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO RESPONSE. AS A RESULT...AN OVERALL
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE THE RULE ON ALL RIVERS/STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FURTHER AID
THE DECLINE OF RIVER LEVELS.
THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FREEZE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY (08Z) POSITIONED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...AND IN THE MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS IS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CANCEL PART OF
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEARING
FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST...AND ONLY CANCEL A PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (FOR NOW).
TODAY...SINCE THE SFC HIGH SEEMS TO BE BUILDING IN A BIT SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASE SKY COVER...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
BIT. OTHERWISE...STILL ANTICIPATE CLEARING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH OVERTAKES THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE NIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKY APPEARS VERY LIKELY. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS TO VALUES
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT.
FRIDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING...BUT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...LEADING TO LESS CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ONE LAST NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CRASHES THE PAC NW.
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WX DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
60F ON SATURDAY...AND REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SPLIT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUE
AND WED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING WILL WORK SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING GFK-TVF-FAR OVERNIGHT...BEMIDJI MIGHT SCATTER OUT
LATE TONIGHT. SUNSHINE TO START WILL WARM TEMPS AND THEN EXPECT A
SCT-BKN CU FIELD RRV INTO MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022-023-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. HIGHEST THREAT OF FLOODING IS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. MUCH COOLER IN ITS WAKE...INTO WEEKEND.
DISTURBANCES WITHIN MID/UPPER TROF PASSING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
930 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE CWA. TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED. SCT
SHRA MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NE KY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING MOD SHRA MOVES IN FROM THE
W...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ONGOING IN N REACHES
OF SE OH ZONES AND ALSO N WV LOWLANDS CLOSE TO OH RIVER. DECENT
SSE DOWNSLOPING FLOW EXTENDING UP ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID LEVELS
REALLY SERVING TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SW VA/S WV/NE KY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN NO
CONVECTION AS OF YET. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THINGS
AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR POPS. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN AFORMENTIONED LOCATIONS AS THE HRRR KEEPS
AREA MAINLY DRY THIS EVE AND EVEN UP INTO SE OH AND N WV ONCE
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES OUT. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE GIVING STRONG
DEEP SSE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WATCH TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. WILL WAIT FOR
ACTIVITY ACROSS W KY TO MOVE IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY SHRA WITH PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AIRMASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC.
TOR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT. ALSO, ANY OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR MORE PLUS SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION SHOULD WAIN AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW STALLED OVER OH AND EXTENDS DOWN INTO KY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AFTER A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES UP AND ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD SHOULD
BE AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2+ INCHES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE ISSUED AN FFA UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEATHER TURNS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIVE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU
EVENING WANE/EXIT QUICKLY...AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ROLLS ON
THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END FROM W
TO E. WHILE THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR ON MOVING THE FRONT E OF THE
AREA EARLY FRI NT...NAM12/CMC WERE SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION
WITH AN ANAFRONT LOOK TO IT. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BUT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER NAM/CMC CAMP. LOW CLOUDS LINGER INTO FRI.
TWO SIMILAR SYSTEMS THEN CROSS FRI AND SAT...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
THERE MAY STILL BE HINT OF INSTABILITY FRI SO INCLUDED THE SCHC FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY SAT...THE AIR MASS
IS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR THUNDER.
BLENDED IN THE MET FOR HIGHS AND LOWS EARLY ON...WITH SOME HELP FROM
THE NAM THU NT...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOWS FRI NT LOOKED GOOD. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MEX
AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS SAT...BARELY ABOVE 60 OVER THE LOWLANDS BENEATH
H85 TEMPS NEAR 0 C. NOW HAVE SAT COOLER THAN FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF MEAN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. WARM FRONT
ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASING FORECAST ON THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH HTS TRI STATE AROUND
13Z...THEN REACHING NR A PKB-CRW-BKW LINE 16/17Z...THEN CKB/EKN
TOWARD 20/21Z.
HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DUE TO DYNAMICS. FURTHER NE...IN THE CKB TO
EKN VCNTY MAY BE ENOUGH TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO FORM A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 15Z TO 19Z TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM N TO S 08Z TO 14Z...WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS THE COOLER AIR
SQUEEZES OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR WITH
MOUNTAIN RIDGES OBSCURED.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE 20Z TO 23Z TIME
FRAME WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR 2.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/15/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN WV CENTRAL MOUNTAINS 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...21/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1149 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND WEST TN OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TO READJUST THE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED
ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/
CURRENTLY...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED NEAR CORINTH MS AT
18Z...TRACKING SLOWLY NNE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NE
MS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS MOVING EAST. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR EXTREME NE MS AND THE SE
PART OF WEST TN WHERE SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
INCREASING SHEAR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS
BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY SO A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN MID TN THIS EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT SO WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OF EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY 4 PM. DROPPED POPS SOME
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ASSOCD WITH SFC LOW LIFTS OUT A LITTLE
SOONER THOUGH KEPT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT SINCE THE UPPER
TROF WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOOD THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING DESPITE PLENTIFUL
CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WOBBLE ON OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/ AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A COUPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN/MS BORDER...TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS WILL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT MEM...MKL AND TUP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WHILE JBR WILL FLIRT BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR. LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY AT MEM AND MKL FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. STILL EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD
VFR WEATHER BY MID MORNING. LATER IN THE PERIOD A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A LIGHT SHOWER AT JBR AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO MEM
AND MKL. A CRACK OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND DIMINISH SOME LATE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
656 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. WINDY AND WARM
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SEASONABLY COOL UNSTABLE AIR WILL THEN MOVE
IN...GENERATING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM OVER NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...THESE ARE MOVING NORTH UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THESE SHOWERS TRENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE BERKS AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WEST OF THE CT RIVER BY 10 AM.
ALSO MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEWPTS/SKY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
11-3.9 IR CHANNEL SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE BACK EDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING OUT AT ACK
WITH SLIGHT NE PUSH OF WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW SPOTS OF
FOG/DZ ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE BULK OF THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF MOISTURE IS MAINLY TRAPPED IN THE H95-H8 LAYER AND NOT
IMMEDIATELY AT THE SFC.
THIS SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE N AS INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL WAVE WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE INTO CANADA ALONG WITH ITS
SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO SHIFT TO
THE S. THIS COMBINED DIURNAL TEMP INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FINALLY GET IT MOVING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY ONLY TO
FULLY MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL DWPTS...ALLOWING
THEM TO SHIFT INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
IN SPITE OF THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...UPPER LVL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E REMAIN IN CONTROL SOMEWHAT...TRAPPING THE
MOIST LAYER /AND STRATUS/ BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT TEMP INCREASES TO BE AS HIGH AS THEY
COULD WITH H85 TEMPS IN AVERAGING AROUND 12C BY 18Z.
THEREFORE...WILL CAP MOST TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AWAY FROM THE S
COAST...WHERE ONSHORE SLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. SHOULD THE
STRATUS DISSIPATE FROM S TO N...OR EVEN A BIT IN THE E THANKS TO
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE...HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOMEWHAT FROM
CURRENT FORECAST.
THE KEY WITH ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN WHAT...IF ANY OF THE MODEST
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE TAPPED. THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING DWPTS AND WARMING SFC TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST SB
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200J/KG OR LESS...BUT SHOULD THE STRATUS
HOLD LONGER IT WOULD LIKELY TO BE LESS. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...MOST OF THE AVAILABLE FORCING IS WELL W
ALSO...SO WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH THE AREAS IN NY/PA FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY SPILL INTO THE WRN REACHES OF SRN
NEW ENGLAND. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE CT
VALLEY INTO THE BORDER WITH ALY. GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO KEEP TS OUT OF THE WX...BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHOULD MORE BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR...DESTABILIZATION MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ANY CONVECTION OR -SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR SETUP TO WED NIGHT AS SLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND BUILD N ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A BIT MORE NEAR SFC MOISTURE HOWEVER...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LITTLE MORE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. DON/T CURRENTLY HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY DENSE FOG GIVEN THE DAYTIME MIXING MAY
ACTUALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT DWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT THIS MAY NEED
TO BE WATCHED. WILL KEEP ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DZ
THANKS TO THE TRAPPED MOISTURE. MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
MILD...ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
FRI...
A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE MORE SHOT OF
MESOSCALE RIDGING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL
BE DEALING WITH LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS TO START THE DAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THEIR POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. BY AFTERNOON...MAY
START TO SEE ENOUGH SUNNY BREAKS TO YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM W
TO E AND INTRODUCE SOME TS /MAINLY ISOLATED FOR NOW/. MAIN ISSUE
WOULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES
/NEARLY 3 STD DEV FROM NORMAL/. HOWEVER...THE MAIN BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE
EASTERN USA THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE OVER THE
WESTERN USA AND NUDGES THE WEATHER SYSTEMS EAST A LITTLE. BUT AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND IT WILL DRAW A CLOSED LOW
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGING INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT LINGERS OVERHEAD MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT /COLD POOL/ WILL MOVE IN WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE APPROACH OF
THE TROUGH PROMISES A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH MILD
TEMPS. THE SUBSEQUENT UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL MEAN INSTABILITY
CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DAILIES...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW IS SOUTH TO NORTH AND SO IT
WILL OPPOSE ANY FAST MOVEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES TOWARD THE EAST.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WINDS /40 TO 50 KNOTS/ MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHING THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS 1.5 INCH
PCPBL WATER VALUES...2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...AND GENERATES
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL BE JOINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG LIFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE POINT TO THIS AS BEING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL...WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES COMMON AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES LIKELY. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ARE FAVORED IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE PCPN IS LONGEST IN DURATION
THERE AND THAT AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/UPPER
VENTING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MARGINAL AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE FRONT MOVES OFF...SLOWLY...BUT THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE FOR A FEW DAYS. IT WILL DRAW IN COLDER AIR AT MID
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL CREATE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES EITHER SIDE OF 7C/KM AND
TOTALS OF 50-55 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. COLD POOL
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. THE MORNING STARTS WITH VFR OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...3000-3500 FOOT CIGS OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS...2000-3000 FOOT CIGS BOSTON METRO NORTH AND WEST...IFR OR
LOW-END MVFR CIGS MHT-ORH-IJD AND POINTS WEST. EXPECT AN IMPROVING
TREND THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR EAST OF WORCESTER AND MVFR CIGS
WEST. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING -SHRA IN THE WEST.
A FEW S WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT.
TONIGHT INTO FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANY AREAS NOT ALREADY MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE
TO MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. SOME IFR ALSO
POSSIBLE. DURING THE DAY FRI...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ERN MA AND RI...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER IN
THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...TOWARD EVENING EXPECT A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR EVERYWHERE IN LOW CIGS...RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY BY FRI
NIGHT. SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MID MORNING IMPROVEMENT. CIGS MAY BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR DURING MID MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
SCATTERED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HEAVIEST PCPN IN THE CT
VALLEY WILL BE ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO DAWN/IN THE CENTRAL HILLS 3 AM TO
MID MORNING/COASTAL PLAIN DAWN TO MIDDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WITH SPEEDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL MEAN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRES
CONTINUES SLOW MOVEMENT OFFSHORE. ANY REMAINING SE WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE S THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO FRI...
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A S SWELL TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT...BUILDING INTO FRI. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE S...AND ARE
LIKELY TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE E FOR FRI. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO
BREAK 25 KT NEAR SHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRI...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL FRI NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE FOG AND LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NEW YORK WITH
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 25-30 KNOT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH HEIGHTS 5 FEET OR
HIGHER ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN SCATTERED TSTMS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE ON MOST WATERS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF SOUTH GALES.
SUNDAY-MONDAY.. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BOTH DAYS. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASS...AND NORTHWEST
ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE 5-6 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-
237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH NO LIGHTNING NOTED. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION AND UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY VCTS ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS AROUND 17Z ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA
YESTERDAY BECAME ABSORBED WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS ENDED UP NOT COOLING
THE UPPER LEVELS MUCH WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
RIDGE AMPLIFLYING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST, A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT INCREASING TO NEAR TWO
INCHES BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
LOOKING VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING WITH CAPE AT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. DUE TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT BE A FAST MOVER BUT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE EAST COAST AS CONVECTION
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THIS COULD AID IN SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE CONVECTION WILL STILL LACK
ROBUST UPLIFT BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE LOCALLY RUN HIGH RESOLUTION WRF SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE HRRR AS OF THIS WRITING ONLY GOES OUT TO 19Z BUT ALSO SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 17Z AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
WILL THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH AND IF THIS VERIFIES WOULD BE SOME OF THE DRIEST
AIR FOR MAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE 1948. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG BOTH
COASTS WHICH ARE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. THE LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A LARGE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY SLOWLY VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT.
THE WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, SEAS WILL BUILD OVER
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE GULF STREAM IN THE ATLANTIC TO
POSSIBLE SCA CRITERIA. WIND AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 72 81 68 / 70 50 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 83 69 / 70 60 30 10
MIAMI 85 73 83 68 / 70 50 30 10
NAPLES 85 71 82 64 / 60 40 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1057 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN OHIO WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TODAY
WITH SOME OF NORTHWEST OHIO REACHING THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 40
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DESPITE PWAT VALUES NEAR PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
CWA SEVERAL FACTORS PROVING DELETERIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. RELATIVE BREVITY OF MOISTURE PLUME/CONTINUED
DOWNSTREAM FOCUS PER DRY SLOT INTRUSION AS SYSTEM OCCLUSAL COMMENCES
WITH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE DECAYS IN
DEFERENCE TO ARDENT DIGGING OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE.
FURTHERMORE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AOB 10KFT ALONG WITH USUALLY RAPID
VARIANCE AND/OR HIGH VELOCITY OF MESOBEATA ELEMENTS COUNTERING
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES. WITH BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
WELL EAST OF CWA HAVE DROPPED TSRA MENTION THIS MORNING AS FORCED
PARCEL ASCENT REMAINING QUITE ELEVATED ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH BEST DYNAMICS /STRONGEST 925-8H JET STREAK/ LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTL/ERN OH. DIFFICULT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN CWA WHERE WARM SECTOR PROXIMITY
REFLECTED THIS AM. FAVORED MODIFICATION OF 3 HOURLY TEMP CURVE
TOWARD HIGHER RES NEAR TERM BLEND TO EXTRACT HIGH/LOW IN NEAR TERM.
CYCLONIC 925 MB FLOW WITH THERMAL CORE ACROSS WRN HALF GREAT LAKES
FAVORS THICK CLOUD COVER AND SIDE MORE PESSIMISTICALLY THAN
NAM/ARW/SREF PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST AND NOTE THAT LATEST RAP BUFKIT
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE STUBBORN STRATOCU INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE NEAR MN/IA/SD BORDER TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
NRN IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO NWRN IN BY DAYBREAK WITH SMALL CHANCE SHRA
POPS GIVEN DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION AND CONTD MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT
FALLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHEARING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OH
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR PROGS, DECENT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE/CONVERGENCE
INTO AT LEAST OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN SUPPORTS BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO JET SUPPORT/WEAK
DEFORMATION WITH SHEARING MID LVL WAVE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS
NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY (15-20F BELOW NORMAL). CONTINUED TO FAVOR
WARMER RAW GUIDANCE OVER MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MINS GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT/CLOUDS.
UPPER TROUGH/BROAD CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN INTO ONTARIO
AND NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME REMNANT SFC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN (AFTN) SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DEEPER
MIXING/MORE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/CLEARING SKIES.
QUIET WX WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. NEARING THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK AS CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED/ENHANCED WAVES RIDE OVER A PROGGED 588-590DAM LOWER MS
VALLEY 5H RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR KDFI AT 11 UTC TO CONTINUE NORTH
NORTHEAST TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING.
WHILE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER...A WELL
MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS BELOW
FUEL/ALT REQUIREMENTS AND LIKELY INTO IFR RANGE LATER THIS AM.
LOWEST CIGS INVOF KSBN IN PROXIMITY TO WRAPPED MOISTURE AND
ADVANCING DEFORMATION ZONE. TRENDED SLOWER WITH GRADUAL SUBCLOUD
EROSION PER LATEST RAP/06 UTC NAM GUIDANCE...NOW EXPECTED BY LATE
DAY FOR SIG IMPROVEMENT/ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS BY
EARLY EVENING AT KFWA AND EARLY TONIGHT AT KSBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
711 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY AND COOL TEMPERATURES BY
MID MORNING. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
AN OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DESPITE PWAT VALUES NEAR PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
CWA SEVERAL FACTORS PROVING DELETERIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. RELATIVE BREVITY OF MOISTURE PLUME/CONTINUED
DOWNSTREAM FOCUS PER DRY SLOT INTRUSION AS SYSTEM OCCLUSAL COMMENCES
WITH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE DECAYS IN
DEFERENCE TO ARDENT DIGGING OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE.
FURTHERMORE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AOB 10KFT ALONG WITH USUALLY RAPID
VARIANCE AND/OR HIGH VELOCITY OF MESOBEATA ELEMENTS COUNTERING
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES. WITH BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
WELL EAST OF CWA HAVE DROPPED TSRA MENTION THIS MORNING AS FORCED
PARCEL ASCENT REMAINING QUITE ELEVATED ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH BEST DYNAMICS /STRONGEST 925-8H JET STREAK/ LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTL/ERN OH. DIFFICULT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN CWA WHERE WARM SECTOR PROXIMITY
REFLECTED THIS AM. FAVORED MODIFICATION OF 3 HOURLY TEMP CURVE
TOWARD HIGHER RES NEAR TERM BLEND TO EXTRACT HIGH/LOW IN NEAR TERM.
CYCLONIC 925 MB FLOW WITH THERMAL CORE ACROSS WRN HALF GREAT LAKES
FAVORS THICK CLOUD COVER AND SIDE MORE PESSIMISTICALLY THAN
NAM/ARW/SREF PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST AND NOTE THAT LATEST RAP BUFKIT
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE STUBBORN STRATOCU INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE NEAR MN/IA/SD BORDER TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
NRN IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO NWRN IN BY DAYBREAK WITH SMALL CHANCE SHRA
POPS GIVEN DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION AND CONTD MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT
FALLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHEARING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OH
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR PROGS, DECENT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE/CONVERGENCE
INTO AT LEAST OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN SUPPORTS BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO JET SUPPORT/WEAK
DEFORMATION WITH SHEARING MID LVL WAVE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS
NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY (15-20F BELOW NORMAL). CONTINUED TO FAVOR
WARMER RAW GUIDANCE OVER MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MINS GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT/CLOUDS.
UPPER TROUGH/BROAD CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN INTO ONTARIO
AND NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME REMNANT SFC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN (AFTN) SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DEEPER
MIXING/MORE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/CLEARING SKIES.
QUIET WX WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. NEARING THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK AS CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED/ENHANCED WAVES RIDE OVER A PROGGED 588-590DAM LOWER MS
VALLEY 5H RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR KDFI AT 11 UTC TO CONTINUE NORTH
NORTHEAST TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING.
WHILE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER...A WELL
MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WITH CIGS BELOW
FUEL/ALT REQUIREMENTS AND LIKELY INTO IFR RANGE LATER THIS AM.
LOWEST CIGS INVOF KSBN IN PROXIMITY TO WRAPPED MOISTURE AND
ADVANCING DEFORMATION ZONE. TRENDED SLOWER WITH GRADUAL SUBCLOUD
EROSION PER LATEST RAP/06 UTC NAM GUIDANCE...NOW EXPECTED BY LATE
DAY FOR SIG IMPROVEMENT/ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS BY
EARLY EVENING AT KFWA AND EARLY TONIGHT AT KSBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WV LOOP AND ANALYSIS OF RAP H5 HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP TROUGH FROM
PARENT UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY TO ONE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DROPPING SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ORIGIN IN THE
EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA FM SE CONUS
TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THUS FAR PRECIPITATION IS AS CLOSE AS EAST
CENTRAL WI AND FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. BAND OF RAIN IS ALONG AND
EAST OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON LK
MICHIGAN. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR BLO H6...AND THIS IS SO FAR
RESTRICTING WESTWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION. OVER THE MQT CWA
THERE IS A THICK SHIELD OF MID CLOUDS WHICH HAS MAINLY HELD TEMPS UP
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY EXCEPTION IS INTERIOR WEST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE LOCALLY DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S.
FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS LIFTS ALMOST DUE NORTH TOWARD
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIG
INTO THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIP TO THE SE SUPPORTED BY THE FRONT AT H7
TO TRY TO BACK WESTWARD INTO AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING. BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SFC T/TD
COULD SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ONCE PRECIP BEGINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD THEN EXPAND FOR ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF
OF CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE/H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND SWATH OF HIGHER H7-H85 RH ALONG AND WEST OF H85-H7 LOWS...
SHOWING UP AS ENHANCED CLOUD ON WV LOOP OVER IA AND WI..LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE HURON. NORTH WINDS ON
EDGE OF SFC-H85 LOWS MAY ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF PRECIP AS FAR WEST
AS NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS PRECIP
WOULD BEGIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND SNOW WOULD BE THE
MAIN PTYPE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND
SINCE THIS IS OCCURRING DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES BY EVENING OVER
EAST AS STRONGER LIFT/DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OUTWEIGH THESE OTHER
FACTORS.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WILL BE ONGOING OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS SHORTWAVE/LARGER SCALE ASCENT IS LIFTING THROUGH.
BEGINNING TO THINK WEST EDGE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE PULLED
FARTHER WEST...PERHAPS TO CMX-LNL LINE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MAY
BE NUDGED WEST WITH THE ADDITIONAL INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE COMPLETE PHASING BTWN
THESE FEATURES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT PRECIP PATTERN SOMEWHAT. THINK
THAT THE EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FOR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AS THE NORTH WINDS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING.
SOUNDINGS POINT TO SLR/S STRUGGLING TO 10:1 BUT MORE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL HELP THIS OUT SOME. CURRENT FORECAST USED BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BIT OF 00Z NAM TO PICK UP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BETTER. THIS RESULTED IN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
CONSTANT THEME WITH THIS SYSTEM...THINGS LOOK TO BE CHANGING AGAIN.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN ENHANCED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST
TRACK OF SYSTEM...THINK THAT THE 06Z NAM RUN WHICH SHOWS ROUGHLY
DOUBLE OF THE TOTAL QPF IT DID ON THE 00Z RUN COULD BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. MAY BE OVERPLAYING THINGS SOME THOUGH. IF THIS IDEA IS MORE
IN LINE...THEN AREAS FROM KEWEENAW TO DELTA COUNTY WOULD SEE AROUND
1 INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT...WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL IN BARAGA
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES COULD END UP WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES...MAYBE 4
INCHES.
NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT LATEST
DATA AND MAKE A CALL IF ONE IS NEEDED. GREATEST CHANCE THAT THE SNOW
WOULD IMPACT ROADS WOULD NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS BLYR
SUFFICIENTLY COOLS...BUT THEN THE QUESTION IS WILL THE SNOWFALL
RATES BE ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS PRETTY MUCH HERE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROF (500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WITH AXIS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO START THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENED
TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR PERHAPS A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT IS SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY
ROUNDING RIDGE AND THEN HEADING INTO THE LINGERING NE TROF. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO START
THE LONG TERM WILL MODERATE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL MID TO LATE MAY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT FARTHER AHEAD...THERE ARE
STILL NO INDICATIONS OF SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SETTING UP IN
THE NEXT WEEK TO 14 DAYS. AFTER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROF
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRY DAYS SHOULD SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
AGGRESSIVELY SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED PCPN ENCROACH ON DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S
FROM HUDSON BAY. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE SHRA REACH WRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE E STAYS DRY.
BEGINNING FRI...DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS) IN THE MORNING...MAINLY
FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WHERE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID THE PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE SHOWN SWINGING N ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N THRU ERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WHICH ALSO LEADS TO BEST DEEP
MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTING N...PCPN WILL BE DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BY AFTN...PCPN WILL TURN TO
SCT SHOWERY AS STEADIER SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS AND MID MAY DAYTIME
HEATING THRU CLOUD COVER GENERATES SOME INSTABILITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO WORK TO CHANGE PTYPE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM (UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL IN THE MORNING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUM WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH
TEMPS NOT REACHING 40F IN SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F FAR SCNTRL.
FRI NIGHT...COVERAGE OF LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS THE
CLOSED LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS.
ON SAT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND S THRU
THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER TROF...COLD POOL ALOFT AND MID MAY INSOLATION
WILL CONSPIRE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SCT SHRA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND WHILE AREAS NEAR THE
LAKES COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABILIZING MARINE LAYER
BEHIND INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZES. BEST CHC OF SHRA WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR CNTRL. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C AT 12Z SAT...PCPN SHOULD
BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN CAUSE
THE PTYPE TO BECOME ONLY LIQUID IN THE AFTN...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW IN THE AFTN IF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.
SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE
NE AND WEAKENS...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES ARE FCST TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTED
THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH FEATURE AND
HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STABLE AIR
OVER CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TO PREVENT ANY OF THESE SFC BASED -SHRA
FROM REACHING UPPER MI. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...FCST 850MB TEMPS AROUND
2C ON SUN AND 5C ON MON SHOULD ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60F
AND INTO THE 60S RESPECTIVELY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. EARLY SUN AND MON MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE 20S AT SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TIMING OF
FEATURE AND HOW QUICKLY PCPN SPREADS INTO DRY AIR MASS EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S FROM HUDSON BAY STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING E TO REFLECT THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE NORTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN...INCLUDING KSAW...THIS AFTN. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SPREAD TO KCMX LATER TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS START OUT VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT KIWD
WHILE MVFR DEVELOPS AT KCMX TONIGHT. LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KSAW...DOWN
TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. IMPROVING TREND WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THOUGH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FM THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY AND THEN
TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRI EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25KT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20KT AND EVEN UNDER 10KT AT TIMES UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD. ADVISORIES REMAIN
AT THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AS WELL AS WITCH LAKE AND CRYSTAL
FALLS ON THE MICHIGAMME. THE STEADY TO SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WV LOOP AND ANALYSIS OF RAP H5 HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP TROUGH FROM
PARENT UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY TO ONE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DROPPING SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ORIGIN IN THE
EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA FM SE CONUS
TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THUS FAR PRECIPITATION IS AS CLOSE AS EAST
CENTRAL WI AND FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. BAND OF RAIN IS ALONG AND
EAST OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON LK
MICHIGAN. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR BLO H6...AND THIS IS SO FAR
RESTRICTING WESTWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION. OVER THE MQT CWA
THERE IS A THICK SHIELD OF MID CLOUDS WHICH HAS MAINLY HELD TEMPS UP
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY EXCEPTION IS INTERIOR WEST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE LOCALLY DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S.
FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS LIFTS ALMOST DUE NORTH TOWARD
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIG
INTO THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIP TO THE SE SUPPORTED BY THE FRONT AT H7
TO TRY TO BACK WESTWARD INTO AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING. BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SFC T/TD
COULD SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ONCE PRECIP BEGINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD THEN EXPAND FOR ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF
OF CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE/H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND SWATH OF HIGHER H7-H85 RH ALONG AND WEST OF H85-H7 LOWS...
SHOWING UP AS ENHANCED CLOUD ON WV LOOP OVER IA AND WI..LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE HURON. NORTH WINDS ON
EDGE OF SFC-H85 LOWS MAY ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF PRECIP AS FAR WEST
AS NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS PRECIP
WOULD BEGIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND SNOW WOULD BE THE
MAIN PTYPE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND
SINCE THIS IS OCCURRING DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES BY EVENING OVER
EAST AS STRONGER LIFT/DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OUTWEIGH THESE OTHER
FACTORS.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WILL BE ONGOING OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS SHORTWAVE/LARGER SCALE ASCENT IS LIFTING THROUGH.
BEGINNING TO THINK WEST EDGE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE PULLED
FARTHER WEST...PERHAPS TO CMX-LNL LINE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MAY
BE NUDGED WEST WITH THE ADDITIONAL INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE COMPLETE PHASING BTWN
THESE FEATURES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT PRECIP PATTERN SOMEWHAT. THINK
THAT THE EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FOR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AS THE NORTH WINDS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING.
SOUNDINGS POINT TO SLR/S STRUGGLING TO 10:1 BUT MORE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL HELP THIS OUT SOME. CURRENT FORECAST USED BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BIT OF 00Z NAM TO PICK UP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BETTER. THIS RESULTED IN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
CONSTANT THEME WITH THIS SYSTEM...THINGS LOOK TO BE CHANGING AGAIN.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN ENHANCED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST
TRACK OF SYSTEM...THINK THAT THE 06Z NAM RUN WHICH SHOWS ROUGHLY
DOUBLE OF THE TOTAL QPF IT DID ON THE 00Z RUN COULD BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. MAY BE OVERPLAYING THINGS SOME THOUGH. IF THIS IDEA IS MORE
IN LINE...THEN AREAS FROM KEWEENAW TO DELTA COUNTY WOULD SEE AROUND
1 INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT...WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL IN BARAGA
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES COULD END UP WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES...MAYBE 4
INCHES.
NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT LATEST
DATA AND MAKE A CALL IF ONE IS NEEDED. GREATEST CHANCE THAT THE SNOW
WOULD IMPACT ROADS WOULD NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS BLYR
SUFFICIENTLY COOLS...BUT THEN THE QUESTION IS WILL THE SNOWFALL
RATES BE ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS PRETTY MUCH HERE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROF (500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WITH AXIS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO START THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENED
TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR PERHAPS A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT IS SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY
ROUNDING RIDGE AND THEN HEADING INTO THE LINGERING NE TROF. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO START
THE LONG TERM WILL MODERATE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL MID TO LATE MAY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT FARTHER AHEAD...THERE ARE
STILL NO INDICATIONS OF SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SETTING UP IN
THE NEXT WEEK TO 14 DAYS. AFTER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROF
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRY DAYS SHOULD SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
AGGRESSIVELY SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED PCPN ENCROACH ON DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S
FROM HUDSON BAY. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE SHRA REACH WRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE E STAYS DRY.
BEGINNING FRI...DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS) IN THE MORNING...MAINLY
FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WHERE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID THE PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE SHOWN SWINGING N ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N THRU ERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WHICH ALSO LEADS TO BEST DEEP
MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTING N...PCPN WILL BE DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BY AFTN...PCPN WILL TURN TO
SCT SHOWERY AS STEADIER SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS AND MID MAY DAYTIME
HEATING THRU CLOUD COVER GENERATES SOME INSTABILITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO WORK TO CHANGE PTYPE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM (UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL IN THE MORNING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUM WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH
TEMPS NOT REACHING 40F IN SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F FAR SCNTRL.
FRI NIGHT...COVERAGE OF LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS THE
CLOSED LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS.
ON SAT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND S THRU
THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER TROF...COLD POOL ALOFT AND MID MAY INSOLATION
WILL CONSPIRE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SCT SHRA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND WHILE AREAS NEAR THE
LAKES COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABILIZING MARINE LAYER
BEHIND INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZES. BEST CHC OF SHRA WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR CNTRL. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C AT 12Z SAT...PCPN SHOULD
BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN CAUSE
THE PTYPE TO BECOME ONLY LIQUID IN THE AFTN...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW IN THE AFTN IF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.
SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE
NE AND WEAKENS...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES ARE FCST TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTED
THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH FEATURE AND
HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STABLE AIR
OVER CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TO PREVENT ANY OF THESE SFC BASED -SHRA
FROM REACHING UPPER MI. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...FCST 850MB TEMPS AROUND
2C ON SUN AND 5C ON MON SHOULD ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60F
AND INTO THE 60S RESPECTIVELY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. EARLY SUN AND MON MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE 20S AT SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TIMING OF
FEATURE AND HOW QUICKLY PCPN SPREADS INTO DRY AIR MASS EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S FROM HUDSON BAY STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING E TO REFLECT THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE NORTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN...INCLUDING KSAW...THIS AFTN. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SPREAD TO KCMX LATER TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS START OUT VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT KIWD
WHILE MVFR DEVELOPS AT KCMX TONIGHT. LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KSAW...DOWN
TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. IMPROVING TREND WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THOUGH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FM THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY AND THEN
TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRI EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25KT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20KT AND EVEN UNDER 10KT AT TIMES UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN RIVERS OF CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI. NO FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ONLY FLOOD ADVYS REMAIN FOR
STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AND FOR THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AT WITCH
LAKE...REPUBLIC AND CRYSTAL FALLS.
FORTUNATELY...PCPN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OCCURRING
MOSTLY TODAY THRU FRI MORNING...WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE SO THAT
RIVERS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO RESPONSE. AS A RESULT...AN OVERALL
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE THE RULE ON ALL RIVERS/STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FURTHER AID
THE DECLINE OF RIVER LEVELS.
THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
830 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FREEZE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY (08Z) POSITIONED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...AND IN THE MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS IS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CANCEL PART OF
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEARING
FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST...AND ONLY CANCEL A PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (FOR NOW).
TODAY...SINCE THE SFC HIGH SEEMS TO BE BUILDING IN A BIT SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASE SKY COVER...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
BIT. OTHERWISE...STILL ANTICIPATE CLEARING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH OVERTAKES THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE NIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKY APPEARS VERY LIKELY. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS TO VALUES
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT.
FRIDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING...BUT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...LEADING TO LESS CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ONE LAST NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CRASHES THE PAC NW.
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WX DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
60F ON SATURDAY...AND REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SPLIT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUE
AND WED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
VFR CIGS (ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY) WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
626 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT MOVED...AND HAVE ACTUALLY MOVED BACK WEST A
BIT. AT ANY RATE...WILL CANCEL THE FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY (11Z) ABOVE FREEZING (WE ARE AFTER SUNRISE AND TEMPS
WILL NOW BEGIN TO RISE). AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKY WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS
HERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FREEZE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY (08Z) POSITIONED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...AND IN THE MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS IS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CANCEL PART OF
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEARING
FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST...AND ONLY CANCEL A PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (FOR NOW).
TODAY...SINCE THE SFC HIGH SEEMS TO BE BUILDING IN A BIT SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASE SKY COVER...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
BIT. OTHERWISE...STILL ANTICIPATE CLEARING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH OVERTAKES THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE NIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKY APPEARS VERY LIKELY. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS TO VALUES
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT.
FRIDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING...BUT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...LEADING TO LESS CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ONE LAST NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CRASHES THE PAC NW.
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WX DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
60F ON SATURDAY...AND REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SPLIT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUE
AND WED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
VFR CIGS (ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY) WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-004-005-
007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE NICELY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AFTER A
CHILLY START. MOST AREAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE A LOW STRATUS
DECK IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT WITHIN THE HOUR BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
12Z HRRR MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON
ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND WILL BRING OFF AND ON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THE WARM FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PUSHES EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. A SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. INCLUDED VCSH
AT JBR ONLY WHERE AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS
WILL VARY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST GENERALLY 5-10KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TODAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP US COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS ADVANCING
FASTER THAN MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. LEADING LINE OF THE MAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...IS
PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING GENERALLY FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS GETTING READY TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MODELS STILL CALLING FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT TO BRING A
RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM THE NEW RIVER
EASTWARD DURING EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS.
SEE NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...BASICALLY INDICATING
THAT TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TIME WHEN THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERS A GIVEN LOCATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 4 AM...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST TO COVER REST OF THE PIEDMONT...PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM WPC...AS WELL AS COLLABORATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
WILL SEE RAINFALL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. ALREADY
GETTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ALREADY SEEING ONE HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATAUGA AND WILKES.
WV LOOP AND PWATS INDICATED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. THERE IS ANOTHER CONNECTION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL.
THESE TWO PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION
THRU THIS EVENING.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO GIVEN SE TO SOUTH FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING ELEMENTS OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR RIVER FLOODING LATER TONIGHT-FRIDAY GIVEN SLOW
NATURE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 4-5" AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM BOONE TO FLOYD AND PERHAPS UP TOWARD APPLE ORCHARD MTN.
ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR THREAT. THE WIND ENERGY WILL BE
THERE AS WELL AS HIGHER HUMIDITY. LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF
HEATING. STILL HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN THE
LINE ITSELF COULD HAVE EMBEDDED HIGH WIND THREAT. THIS IN CONCERT
WITH SPC/S SLIGHT RISK THREAT.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST GIVEN ONSET OF
RAIN EARLY WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH IN THE WEST. LACK
OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST BEFORE THE RAIN MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE 10
DEGREES FROM THE UPPER 60S EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 80.
MEANWHILE...THINK THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO SE WV WILL ONLY STAY
STEADY OR FALL ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN. BLF CURRENTLY 68...SO HIGH
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN INCLUDING EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE 85H BOUNDARY SLOW TO EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT...EXPECT THE
BAND TO STALL FOR A BIT AND TRAIN UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPCLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK IMPULSES SHEAR
THROUGH THE PLUME OF VERY HIGH PWATS ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SHOULD BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ADDED AMOUNTS OF 1-
2+ INCHES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ROUGHLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND OUT
EAST MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN FRIDAY PENDING HOW FAST THE BAND
SHIFTS EAST LATE AT NIGHT UNDER THE PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER NOW IN SLIDING THE BAND EAST ONCE THE
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND HEADS NE SO SPED UP MOVEMENT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REDUCED TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE
WEST LATE. HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALSO LIKELY AS EARLY SE
UPSLOPE INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING 85H JET ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ESPCLY DURING THU EVENING BUT IFFY LIKELY GIVEN SUCH A DEFINED AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AFTER THE LEADING
EDGE PUSHES ACROSS. THUS CONTINUED WITH CAT POPS THIS EVENING WITH A
FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST HIGH POPS
CONFINED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
BASICALLY LOW CHANCES FAR EAST BY DAWN FRIDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE UPPER COLD POOL LAGS
BACK WITH THE COMBO OF SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLING LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
A FEW ADDED -SHRA BANDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE EAST. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE UNDER THE 5H TROUGH BY SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER UPSLOPE AIDED ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SAT
NIGHT SO KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
OTRW THE PASSING FRONT TO START THE ONSET OF COOL ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BRUNT OF THE 85H COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS LIKELY TO KEEP MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS SOME 30S DEEPER
VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WEST. EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCRAPE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS BUT PERHAPS ONLY THAT WARM IN THE PIEDMONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH FOR MID/LATE MAY WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE INTO
EARLY AND MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS
ESPCLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD. WITH THE COLD POOL ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO HELP POP ISOLATED
AFTERNOON -SHRA MAINLY OVER THE NW SO KEPT IN A LOW POP THERE. OTRW
MODELS SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK OF THE
DEPARTING 5H TROUGH WHILE UNDERCUTTING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTS DRIER LOW LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH ANY IMPULSES ALOFT ONLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CU AND
ISOLATED -SHRA AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
BY MID WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE DISTINCT WAVE SLIDING SE IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. EARLIER EC MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH POSSIBLE MCS BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO
TIME THIS ESPCLY GIVEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES. THUS INCLUDING A BIT
HIGHER POP ON DAY7 FOR NOW.
OTRW MAINLY PC WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY
ON...REBOUNDING TO MOSTLY 70S BY WED. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH
PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH 30S FOR SOME PATCHY DEEP VALLEY FROST
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AVIATION FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATEST RAP AND NEAR TERM RADAR/SAT
TRENDS. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER BCB AT
12Z...ENDING BY 13Z. STILL THINKING THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL STAY MVFR
OR LOWER TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. MODELS FAVOR SLOW DOWN BUT LATEST TRENDS THIS
MORNING PER RADAR/SAT INDICATE THAT BLF COULD DRY OUT FASTER. WILL
HANG ONTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 06Z BUT SPEED THINGS UP ABOUT
1-2 HRS. OVERNIGHT...THE EAST WILL STAY WITH SHOWERS WHILE WEST
WINDS DRY THINGS ACROSS THE WEST...ALTHOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT ROA/LYH/DAN BY 12Z FRIDAY TO
VFR...AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD START TO SCOUR OUT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING IN SOME SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH BKN MVFR CIGS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG WITH
SCT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING
LWB/BLF/BCB THE MOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED EAST TO COVER REST OF THE PIEDMONT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES LIKELY FOR AREAL AVERAGE. AREAS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY GOING TO SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4-5" WITH RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1.5" IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES.
ALSO...GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW MAIN STEM RIVER POINTS HEAD TOWARD MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW THE RAINFALL TOTALS PAN OUT AND WHICH BASINS GET THE MOST.
GEFS AND NAEFS RIVER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS STILL FAVORING THE
GREENBRIER TO GET HIT THE HARDEST POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MODERATE
FLOOD AT ALDERSON. MEANWHILE...THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TODAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP US COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS ADVANCING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FAVORS THE LATER RAP13. MODELS SHOWING THAT THIS LINE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT DRY AIR OVER MID TN TO GA/AL LINE
MAY SLIDE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS SOONER CUTTING DOWN ON PRECIP
AMOUNTS. THIS WILL BE A BLESSING AS FOLKS IN THE NC MTNS HAVE
ALREADY GOTTEN UP TO 2". HOWEVER...LEANED TOWARD LATEST MODEL RUNS
STILL SHOWING MAX AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM
FLOYD NORTH TO THE SRN SHENANDOAH VLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT
CHANGING WATCH AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 4 AM...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST TO COVER REST OF THE PIEDMONT...PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM WPC...AS WELL AS COLLABORATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
WILL SEE RAINFALL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. ALREADY
GETTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ALREADY SEEING ONE HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATAUGA AND WILKES.
WV LOOP AND PWATS INDICATED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. THERE IS ANOTHER CONNECTION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL.
THESE TWO PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION
THRU THIS EVENING.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO GIVEN SE TO SOUTH FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING ELEMENTS OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR RIVER FLOODING LATER TONIGHT-FRIDAY GIVEN SLOW
NATURE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 4-5" AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM BOONE TO FLOYD AND PERHAPS UP TOWARD APPLE ORCHARD MTN.
ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR THREAT. THE WIND ENERGY WILL BE
THERE AS WELL AS HIGHER HUMIDITY. LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF
HEATING. STILL HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN THE
LINE ITSELF COULD HAVE EMBEDDED HIGH WIND THREAT. THIS IN CONCERT
WITH SPC/S SLIGHT RISK THREAT.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST GIVEN ONSET OF
RAIN EARLY WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH IN THE WEST. LACK
OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST BEFORE THE RAIN MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE 10
DEGREES FROM THE UPPER 60S EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 80.
MEANWHILE...THINK THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO SE WV WILL ONLY STAY
STEADY OR FALL ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN. BLF CURRENTLY 68...SO HIGH
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN INCLUDING EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE 85H BOUNDARY SLOW TO EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT...EXPECT THE
BAND TO STALL FOR A BIT AND TRAIN UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPCLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK IMPULSES SHEAR
THROUGH THE PLUME OF VERY HIGH PWATS ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SHOULD BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ADDED AMOUNTS OF 1-
2+ INCHES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ROUGHLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND OUT
EAST MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN FRIDAY PENDING HOW FAST THE BAND
SHIFTS EAST LATE AT NIGHT UNDER THE PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER NOW IN SLIDING THE BAND EAST ONCE THE
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND HEADS NE SO SPED UP MOVEMENT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REDUCED TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE
WEST LATE. HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALSO LIKELY AS EARLY SE
UPSLOPE INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING 85H JET ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ESPCLY DURING THU EVENING BUT IFFY LIKELY GIVEN SUCH A DEFINED AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AFTER THE LEADING
EDGE PUSHES ACROSS. THUS CONTINUED WITH CAT POPS THIS EVENING WITH A
FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST HIGH POPS
CONFINED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
BASICALLY LOW CHANCES FAR EAST BY DAWN FRIDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE UPPER COLD POOL LAGS
BACK WITH THE COMBO OF SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLING LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
A FEW ADDED -SHRA BANDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE EAST. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE UNDER THE 5H TROUGH BY SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER UPSLOPE AIDED ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SAT
NIGHT SO KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
OTRW THE PASSING FRONT TO START THE ONSET OF COOL ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BRUNT OF THE 85H COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS LIKELY TO KEEP MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS SOME 30S DEEPER
VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WEST. EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCRAPE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS BUT PERHAPS ONLY THAT WARM IN THE PIEDMONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH FOR MID/LATE MAY WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE INTO
EARLY AND MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS
ESPCLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD. WITH THE COLD POOL ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO HELP POP ISOLATED
AFTERNOON -SHRA MAINLY OVER THE NW SO KEPT IN A LOW POP THERE. OTRW
MODELS SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK OF THE
DEPARTING 5H TROUGH WHILE UNDERCUTTING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTS DRIER LOW LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH ANY IMPULSES ALOFT ONLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CU AND
ISOLATED -SHRA AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
BY MID WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE DISTINCT WAVE SLIDING SE IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. EARLIER EC MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH POSSIBLE MCS BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO
TIME THIS ESPCLY GIVEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES. THUS INCLUDING A BIT
HIGHER POP ON DAY7 FOR NOW.
OTRW MAINLY PC WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY
ON...REBOUNDING TO MOSTLY 70S BY WED. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH
PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH 30S FOR SOME PATCHY DEEP VALLEY FROST
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AVIATION FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATEST RAP AND NEAR TERM RADAR/SAT
TRENDS. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER BCB AT
12Z...ENDING BY 13Z. STILL THINKING THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL STAY MVFR
OR LOWER TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. MODELS FAVOR SLOW DOWN BUT LATEST TRENDS THIS
MORNING PER RADAR/SAT INDICATE THAT BLF COULD DRY OUT FASTER. WILL
HANG ONTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 06Z BUT SPEED THINGS UP ABOUT
1-2 HRS. OVERNIGHT...THE EAST WILL STAY WITH SHOWERS WHILE WEST
WINDS DRY THINGS ACROSS THE WEST...ALTHOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT ROA/LYH/DAN BY 12Z FRIDAY TO
VFR...AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD START TO SCOUR OUT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING IN SOME SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH BKN MVFR CIGS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG WITH
SCT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING
LWB/BLF/BCB THE MOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED EAST TO COVER REST OF THE PIEDMONT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES LIKELY FOR AREAL AVERAGE. AREAS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY GOING TO SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4-5" WITH RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1.5" IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES.
ALSO...GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW MAIN STEM RIVER POINTS HEAD TOWARD MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW THE RAINFALL TOTALS PAN OUT AND WHICH BASINS GET THE MOST.
GEFS AND NAEFS RIVER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS STILL FAVORING THE
GREENBRIER TO GET HIT THE HARDEST POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MODERATE
FLOOD AT ALDERSON. MEANWHILE...THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN OHIO WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TODAY
WITH SOME OF NORTHWEST OHIO REACHING THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 40
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
DESPITE PWAT VALUES NEAR PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
CWA SEVERAL FACTORS PROVING DELETERIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. RELATIVE BREVITY OF MOISTURE PLUME/CONTINUED
DOWNSTREAM FOCUS PER DRY SLOT INTRUSION AS SYSTEM OCCLUSAL COMMENCES
WITH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE DECAYS IN
DEFERENCE TO ARDENT DIGGING OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE.
FURTHERMORE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AOB 10KFT ALONG WITH USUALLY RAPID
VARIANCE AND/OR HIGH VELOCITY OF MESOBEATA ELEMENTS COUNTERING
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES. WITH BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
WELL EAST OF CWA HAVE DROPPED TSRA MENTION THIS MORNING AS FORCED
PARCEL ASCENT REMAINING QUITE ELEVATED ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH BEST DYNAMICS /STRONGEST 925-8H JET STREAK/ LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTL/ERN OH. DIFFICULT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN CWA WHERE WARM SECTOR PROXIMITY
REFLECTED THIS AM. FAVORED MODIFICATION OF 3 HOURLY TEMP CURVE
TOWARD HIGHER RES NEAR TERM BLEND TO EXTRACT HIGH/LOW IN NEAR TERM.
CYCLONIC 925 MB FLOW WITH THERMAL CORE ACROSS WRN HALF GREAT LAKES
FAVORS THICK CLOUD COVER AND SIDE MORE PESSIMISTICALLY THAN
NAM/ARW/SREF PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST AND NOTE THAT LATEST RAP BUFKIT
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE STUBBORN STRATOCU INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE NEAR MN/IA/SD BORDER TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
NRN IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO NWRN IN BY DAYBREAK WITH SMALL CHANCE SHRA
POPS GIVEN DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION AND CONTD MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT
FALLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHEARING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OH
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR PROGS, DECENT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE/CONVERGENCE
INTO AT LEAST OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN SUPPORTS BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO JET SUPPORT/WEAK
DEFORMATION WITH SHEARING MID LVL WAVE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS
NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY (15-20F BELOW NORMAL). CONTINUED TO FAVOR
WARMER RAW GUIDANCE OVER MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MINS GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT/CLOUDS.
UPPER TROUGH/BROAD CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN INTO ONTARIO
AND NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME REMNANT SFC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN (AFTN) SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DEEPER
MIXING/MORE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/CLEARING SKIES.
QUIET WX WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. NEARING THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK AS CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED/ENHANCED WAVES RIDE OVER A PROGGED 588-590DAM LOWER MS
VALLEY 5H RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LOWER MICH INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AREA OF
RAIN THAT WAS JUST UPSTREAM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NE IL AND SE
WI HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED GIVEN INCREASE OF DOWNWARD MOTION. A
SECONDARY BUT MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND HELP KEEP SOME VFR CIGS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 00Z...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu May 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Scattered showers are spreading through southeast Missouri as of
19Z. The mid-level cold pool will be overspreading that area
through the afternoon, so hail will be a concern. 12Z NAM and GFS
soundings do not indicate much instability, so not certain how
much large/severe hail there will be, but will be monitoring closely.
The main mid/upper-level trough will swing through the area
tonight, so showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to persist
through the evening and into the overnight hours. Figure that the
thunder concern will dwindle through the evening. By morning the
convection should be east of the area. However, as the upper low
pushes through Indiana, some scattered showers will be possible
mainly over the Evansville Tri State in the afternoon.
The 12Z NAM and GFS have come into agreement in bringing an band
of showers associated with a disturbance rotating through the base
of the main upper trough. The showers should dive southeast into
southeast Missouri Friday evening, and then eastward along the
Tennessee border overnight and into Saturday morning before
exiting the region. Now have a limited area of likely PoPs for
this event, with a sharp gradient to the north.
A similar scenario is advertised by the models Saturday night, but
this one should stay just south of our area.
Very dry air, dewpoints in the upper 20s, currently over
southeast Kansas, will slide eastward into our region tonight and
Friday. With clear skies and light winds expected across the
northern half of the area Friday night, there will be some
potential for frost formation. Lows in the upper 30s are not out
of the question along and north of Highway 13 and across the
Evansville Tri State. Guidance for KMVN would support middle 30s.
Anyway, will continue to monitor, but a Frost Advisory is
definitely in play Friday night.
As for temperatures, did not stray far from the consensus guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Models show an upper level ridge building northeast out of Texas
late in the weekend into the middle of next week. At the surface,
low pressure over the Central Plains will lift a warm front across
our region Monday night into Tuesday. GFS lifts the front across us
dry, while ECMWF does generate a few spits of QPF but is trending
drier. Will go for a dry forecast Sunday through Wednesday. ECMWF
tries to break down the upper level ridge late in the extended,
which would allow the front to drift back south, and brings some
light QPF into our northern counties Thursday. GFS keeps the front
well to our north, and thus keeps us dry. Will go with a dry
forecast for now due to the ECMWF trending toward the GFS.
Temperatures will continue to moderate toward seasonal readings
Sunday and Monday. With winds becoming southerly behind the front,
more significant warming is expected Tuesday through Thursday.
Readings will climb back to above seasonal values in the lower to
middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Latest HRRR guidance confines convection to the western half of
the area late this afternoon and into the evening. Not confident
enough in TS to mention it at any location, but may need to insert
it once the radar lights up. Decided to just TEMPO VFR shra for
now. Guidance does not bring convection to KEVV or KOWB until the
late evening into the overnight hours. Gave those sites a similar
treatment as the western sites. Winds will be generally from the
west aob 10kts this afternoon, and then light overnight. Some
gusts into the teens possible Friday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT Thu May 15 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Little change to existing forecast planned. 12Z model soundings
not showing much instability, so not sure how much thunder there
will be this afternoon. However, the freezing level may be as low
as 5-6kft AGL, so hail is a good bet out of any storm that develops.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Upper trof still to our west. Patches of light rain and drizzle
continue to move across the area. Fog imagery shows decreasing
clouds to our west. Expect a decreasing trend from west to east in
the light rain, drizzle activity through the morning.
Focus this afternoon will be on convective potential. A boundary
is evident in the models sfc/h8 over MO moving toward the area
this afternoon and evening as another lobe of energy rotates toward
the area within the large scale upper trof over the nation`s mid
section. Rather steep lapse rates push east this afternoon upon
< -24 deg C air at h5, causing mid level lapse rates to exceed 7
with total totals into the mid 50s. This coupled with MUCAPEs over
1000 and blayer li`s -2 to -4 should yield low top convection
(EL`s below 30k/ft). Throw in freezing levels below 7k/ft and
h10/h8 and h10/h7 lapse rates exceeding 8, could be some gusty
winds and hail with a few of the storms. Best chance will be SEMO
this afternoon and maybe into west KY and srn IL this evening
before instability diminishes. Chance of showers overnight shifts
to the east part of the CWFA.
Friday, the models spread a wedge of drier air across the CWFA
with better moisture to our NNE and SW. Cannot rule out a few
showers toward the I64 corridor through the day, and maybe into
southern parts of SEMO by afternoon Friday. Friday night through
Saturday, PoPs will be confined to areas mainly along the MO/AR
and TN/KY state lines and just north, as a quick moving wave
brings better rain chances to AR/TN and points south. No PoPs at
this time for Saturday night given ill-defined mid level support
and marginal moisture.
High and low temps will be a blend of the latest MOS and existing
forecast numbers.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
The extended portion of this forecast issuance is dominated by the
building high pressure ridge aloft and increasing warm air advection
at the surface.
Minor shortwaves will continue to drift southeast along the
northeast edge of the ridge during a brief period on Tuesday, when
the ridge is briefly weakened with the passing shortwaves. However,
any precipitation chances will be limited to the extreme northeast
corner of the WFO PAH CWA and should be minimal in nature.
Given the uncertainty on the depth and coverage of the northwest
flow iteration with the surface ridge, any meaningful PoPs/Weather
have been dropped during the extended forecast period.
With the reduction/elimination of PoP`s, adjusted maximum and
minimum temperatures upward above guidance due to mixing and a sharp
gradient of warm air advection.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
Latest HRRR guidance confines convection to the western half of
the area late this afternoon and into the evening. Not confident
enough in TS to mention it at any location, but may need to insert
it once the radar lights up. Decided to just TEMPO VFR shra for
now. Guidance does not bring convection to KEVV or KOWB until the
late evening into the overnight hours. Gave those sites a similar
treatment as the western sites. Winds will be generally from the
west aob 10kts this afternoon, and then light overnight. Some
gusts into the teens possible Friday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
654 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST...WITH 00Z-12Z H3 FALLS UP TO 180M...BTWN HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS OF SIGNIFICANCE WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NNEWD
THRU ERN WI TOWARD CENTRAL UPR MI AND THE SECOND IS DIGGING SEWD
THRU IOWA. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SHARPENING OF THE UPR TROF...WRN
EDGE OF THE DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR OVER FAR ERN UPR MI HAS
BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E AND AWAY FM THE CWA. IN FACT...STLT
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI UNDER
JET SURGE REGION OF SHRTWV NOW LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED...COLDER CLD TOPS OVER ECENTRAL WI
ON CYC SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED H7 LO AND TO THE E OF THE
OTHER SHRTWV IN IOWA. DESPITE A FAIRLY MOIST LYR BTWN H9-5 SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB...RA UNDER THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLD HAS BEEN LGT
AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY. THE PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS. SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPR
MI ROSE AS HI AS 15-20F. THE FEED OF THIS LLVL DRY AIR LIMITED THE
EXPANSION OF PCPN TO THE W DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POPS/PTYPE ASSOCIATED WITH
PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. LACK OF CLEAR PHASING BTWN THESE TWO
SEPARATE DISTURBANCES/AREAS OF DEEPER MSTR/IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE THE CHIEF LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP INTENSITY/
COVERAGE.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...GIVEN THE UPR DRY SLOTTING BTWN WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL
AS THE LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA/LATEST OBS
WV TRENDS TO THE S...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW
MODEL FOR POPS/QPF. THERE WL BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP AREA
INTO THIS EVNG OVER THE CENTRAL AND E WITH PASSAGE OF H7 LO OVER
NEWBERRY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF F85-7 FGEN JUST TO THE W UNDER AREA
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. BUT PASSAGE OF AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N BY 03Z WL DIMINISH ANY HEAVIER MIXED PCPN. UPSLOPE N
WIND WL BRING MORE NMRS SHOWERS TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIER TERRAIN...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL LIMIT AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LYR FORCING...THE MOST PERSISTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL UNDER AXIS OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/LOWER HGTS FORECAST BY ALL THE GUIDANCE.
PTYPE IS TRICKY. WHILE HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/LOWER WBZ HGT
FAVOR MAINLY SN...LIGHTER PCPN INTENSITY WL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...
SUSPECT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WL BE MAINLY RA THIS AFTN WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. BUT LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TURN PRIMARILY TO SN
AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE DISCONNECT BTWN DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR/
NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT ANY SN ACCUMS WL BE UNDER AN INCH AT
MOST PLACES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL. LINGERING CLD COVER THRU THE NGT SHOULD LIMIT
NOCTURNAL FALL OF TEMP DESPITE RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST ARND -5C AT 12Z FRI.
FRI...UPR MI IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER AXIS OF LOWER HGTS/MID LVL
MSTR/SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF UPR LO SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE N FM CENTRAL LK SUP INTO ONTARIO. BUT ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. SUSPECT THESE SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING FORCING
DESTABILIZATION THERE AWAY FM THE COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE LKS. WHILE ANY PCPN MAY BE MAINLY SN IN THE MRNG...THIS DAYTIME
HEATING THAT LIFTS TEMPS INTO THE 40S AWAY FM LK COOLING SHOULD CHG
ANY PCPN TO RA IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE PESKY 500MB LOW STRETCHED FROM N ONTARIO THROUGH UPPER MI AT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COOL -2 TO -6C. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND CENTRAL AND E AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FROM MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH THE LIGHT W FLOW AT THE SFC AS THE
TROUGH EXITS OVER E UPPER MI. EITHER WAY...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
APPROX 10F WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS
KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE SWINGS
IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT DOES COME ABOUT
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
EXPECT BETTER WAA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SFC LOW SET UP OVER THE W DAKOTAS AND E MT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE
ELONGATED SFC RIDGE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WILL SHIFT E INTO
QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING BACK TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
BEING SLOWLY INTRODUCED W TO E LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE A LOT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SKIMMING N MN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE S
DISTURBANCE OVER IA /AT LEAST OFF THE 12Z ECMWF/. THERE ARE ENOUGH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY TO JUST GO WITH A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND AT THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL AT CMX THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE COULD BE VERY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THERE. DRY LLVL AIR WL DOMINATE IWD THIS
FCST PERIOD AND THEY WILL STAY VFR. SOME -SN WL FALL THIS EVNG AT
SAW...WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LO. WITH A FVRBL
UPSLOPE N WIND... EXPECT MVFR WX TO PREDOMINATE AT THIS SITE
TNGT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN FOR THIS EVENING IN A HEAVIER
SNOW BAND THAT IS AFFECTING THE SITE. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE ON FRI
WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
431 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS MIN AND A LOW OVER NE
LAKE HURON. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH UP INTO S HUDSON BAY BY
SATURDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE W
GREAT LAKES AND TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO MONDAY AS IT LINKS UP WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING S OUT OF HUDSON BAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
EXPECT A LOW OVER THE W DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS MN
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD. ADVISORIES REMAIN
AT THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AS WELL AS WITCH LAKE AND CRYSTAL
FALLS ON THE MICHIGAMME. THE STEADY TO SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST...WITH 00Z-12Z H3 FALLS UP TO 180M...BTWN HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS OF SIGNIFICANCE WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NNEWD
THRU ERN WI TOWARD CENTRAL UPR MI AND THE SECOND IS DIGGING SEWD
THRU IOWA. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SHARPENING OF THE UPR TROF...WRN
EDGE OF THE DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR OVER FAR ERN UPR MI HAS
BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E AND AWAY FM THE CWA. IN FACT...STLT
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI UNDER
JET SURGE REGION OF SHRTWV NOW LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED...COLDER CLD TOPS OVER ECENTRAL WI
ON CYC SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED H7 LO AND TO THE E OF THE
OTHER SHRTWV IN IOWA. DESPITE A FAIRLY MOIST LYR BTWN H9-5 SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB...RA UNDER THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLD HAS BEEN LGT
AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY. THE PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS. SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPR
MI ROSE AS HI AS 15-20F. THE FEED OF THIS LLVL DRY AIR LIMITED THE
EXPANSION OF PCPN TO THE W DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POPS/PTYPE ASSOCIATED WITH
PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. LACK OF CLEAR PHASING BTWN THESE TWO
SEPARATE DISTURBANCES/AREAS OF DEEPER MSTR/IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE THE CHIEF LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP INTENSITY/
COVERAGE.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...GIVEN THE UPR DRY SLOTTING BTWN WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL
AS THE LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA/LATEST OBS
WV TRENDS TO THE S...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW
MODEL FOR POPS/QPF. THERE WL BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP AREA
INTO THIS EVNG OVER THE CENTRAL AND E WITH PASSAGE OF H7 LO OVER
NEWBERRY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF F85-7 FGEN JUST TO THE W UNDER AREA
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. BUT PASSAGE OF AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N BY 03Z WL DIMINISH ANY HEAVIER MIXED PCPN. UPSLOPE N
WIND WL BRING MORE NMRS SHOWERS TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIER TERRAIN...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL LIMIT AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LYR FORCING...THE MOST PERSISTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL UNDER AXIS OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/LOWER HGTS FORECAST BY ALL THE GUIDANCE.
PTYPE IS TRICKY. WHILE HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/LOWER WBZ HGT
FAVOR MAINLY SN...LIGHTER PCPN INTENSITY WL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...
SUSPECT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WL BE MAINLY RA THIS AFTN WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. BUT LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TURN PRIMARILY TO SN
AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE DISCONNECT BTWN DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR/
NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT ANY SN ACCUMS WL BE UNDER AN INCH AT
MOST PLACES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL. LINGERING CLD COVER THRU THE NGT SHOULD LIMIT
NOCTURNAL FALL OF TEMP DESPITE RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST ARND -5C AT 12Z FRI.
FRI...UPR MI IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER AXIS OF LOWER HGTS/MID LVL
MSTR/SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF UPR LO SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE N FM CENTRAL LK SUP INTO ONTARIO. BUT ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. SUSPECT THESE SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING FORCING
DESTABILIZATION THERE AWAY FM THE COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE LKS. WHILE ANY PCPN MAY BE MAINLY SN IN THE MRNG...THIS DAYTIME
HEATING THAT LIFTS TEMPS INTO THE 40S AWAY FM LK COOLING SHOULD CHG
ANY PCPN TO RA IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE PESKY 500MB LOW STRETCHED FROM N ONTARIO THROUGH UPPER MI AT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP COOL AIR SITUATED OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COOL -2 TO -6C. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND CENTRAL AND E AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
FROM MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH THE LIGHT W FLOW AT THE SFC AS THE
TROUGH EXITS OVER E UPPER MI. EITHER WAY...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
APPROX 10F WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS
KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK WAVE SWINGS
IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT DOES COME ABOUT
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
EXPECT BETTER WAA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SFC LOW SET UP OVER THE W DAKOTAS AND E MT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE
ELONGATED SFC RIDGE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WILL SHIFT E INTO
QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING BACK TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
BEING SLOWLY INTRODUCED W TO E LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE A LOT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SKIMMING N MN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE S
DISTURBANCE OVER IA /AT LEAST OFF THE 12Z ECMWF/. THERE ARE ENOUGH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY TO JUST GO WITH A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND AT THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
GUSTY N WINDS THIS AFTN UNDER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK
OF LO PRES MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL LKS WL DIMINISH TNGT WITH THE
CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES/WEAKER GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. OTRW...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES MAY FALL AT CMX...VFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LLVL AIR WL DOMINATE CMX AND IWD THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME -SN WL FALL THIS AFTN/EVNG AT SAW...WHICH WL BE
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LO. WITH A FVRBL UPSLOPE N WIND...
EXPECT MVFR WX TO PREDOMINATE AT THIS SITE TNGT. CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE ON FRI WITH DEPARTURE OF LO/DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
431 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS MIN AND A LOW OVER NE
LAKE HURON. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH UP INTO S HUDSON BAY BY
SATURDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE W
GREAT LAKES AND TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO MONDAY AS IT LINKS UP WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING S OUT OF HUDSON BAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
EXPECT A LOW OVER THE W DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS MN
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD. ADVISORIES REMAIN
AT THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AS WELL AS WITCH LAKE AND CRYSTAL
FALLS ON THE MICHIGAMME. THE STEADY TO SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST...WITH 00Z-12Z H3 FALLS UP TO 180M...BTWN HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS OF SIGNIFICANCE WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NNEWD
THRU ERN WI TOWARD CENTRAL UPR MI AND THE SECOND IS DIGGING SEWD
THRU IOWA. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SHARPENING OF THE UPR TROF...WRN
EDGE OF THE DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR OVER FAR ERN UPR MI HAS
BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E AND AWAY FM THE CWA. IN FACT...STLT
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI UNDER
JET SURGE REGION OF SHRTWV NOW LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED...COLDER CLD TOPS OVER ECENTRAL WI
ON CYC SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED H7 LO AND TO THE E OF THE
OTHER SHRTWV IN IOWA. DESPITE A FAIRLY MOIST LYR BTWN H9-5 SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB...RA UNDER THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLD HAS BEEN LGT
AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY. THE PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z MPX/INL RAOBS. SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPR
MI ROSE AS HI AS 15-20F. THE FEED OF THIS LLVL DRY AIR LIMITED THE
EXPANSION OF PCPN TO THE W DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO CENTRAL UPR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POPS/PTYPE ASSOCIATED WITH
PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. LACK OF CLEAR PHASING BTWN THESE TWO
SEPARATE DISTURBANCES/AREAS OF DEEPER MSTR/IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE THE CHIEF LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP INTENSITY/
COVERAGE.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...GIVEN THE UPR DRY SLOTTING BTWN WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL
AS THE LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA/LATEST OBS
WV TRENDS TO THE S...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 12Z LOCAL WRF-ARW
MODEL FOR POPS/QPF. THERE WL BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP AREA
INTO THIS EVNG OVER THE CENTRAL AND E WITH PASSAGE OF H7 LO OVER
NEWBERRY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF F85-7 FGEN JUST TO THE W UNDER AREA
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. BUT PASSAGE OF AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC TO THE N BY 03Z WL DIMINISH ANY HEAVIER MIXED PCPN. UPSLOPE N
WIND WL BRING MORE NMRS SHOWERS TO THE NCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE
HIER TERRAIN...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL LIMIT AMOUNTS.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LYR FORCING...THE MOST PERSISTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL UNDER AXIS OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/LOWER HGTS FORECAST BY ALL THE GUIDANCE.
PTYPE IS TRICKY. WHILE HIER SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/LOWER WBZ HGT
FAVOR MAINLY SN...LIGHTER PCPN INTENSITY WL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...
SUSPECT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WL BE MAINLY RA THIS AFTN WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. BUT LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TURN PRIMARILY TO SN
AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE DISCONNECT BTWN DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR/
NOCTURNAL COOLING...SUSPECT ANY SN ACCUMS WL BE UNDER AN INCH AT
MOST PLACES...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL. LINGERING CLD COVER THRU THE NGT SHOULD LIMIT
NOCTURNAL FALL OF TEMP DESPITE RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST ARND -5C AT 12Z FRI.
FRI...UPR MI IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER AXIS OF LOWER HGTS/MID LVL
MSTR/SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF UPR LO SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE N FM CENTRAL LK SUP INTO ONTARIO. BUT ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. SUSPECT THESE SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING FORCING
DESTABILIZATION THERE AWAY FM THE COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE LKS. WHILE ANY PCPN MAY BE MAINLY SN IN THE MRNG...THIS DAYTIME
HEATING THAT LIFTS TEMPS INTO THE 40S AWAY FM LK COOLING SHOULD CHG
ANY PCPN TO RA IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROF (500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WITH AXIS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO START THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENED
TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR PERHAPS A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT IS SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY
ROUNDING RIDGE AND THEN HEADING INTO THE LINGERING NE TROF. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO START
THE LONG TERM WILL MODERATE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL MID TO LATE MAY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT FARTHER AHEAD...THERE ARE
STILL NO INDICATIONS OF SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SETTING UP IN
THE NEXT WEEK TO 14 DAYS. AFTER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROF
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRY DAYS SHOULD SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
AGGRESSIVELY SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED PCPN ENCROACH ON DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S
FROM HUDSON BAY. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE SHRA REACH WRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE E STAYS DRY.
BEGINNING FRI...DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS) IN THE MORNING...MAINLY
FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WHERE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID THE PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE SHOWN SWINGING N ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N THRU ERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WHICH ALSO LEADS TO BEST DEEP
MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTING N...PCPN WILL BE DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BY AFTN...PCPN WILL TURN TO
SCT SHOWERY AS STEADIER SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS AND MID MAY DAYTIME
HEATING THRU CLOUD COVER GENERATES SOME INSTABILITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO WORK TO CHANGE PTYPE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM (UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL IN THE MORNING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUM WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH
TEMPS NOT REACHING 40F IN SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F FAR SCNTRL.
FRI NIGHT...COVERAGE OF LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS THE
CLOSED LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS.
ON SAT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND S THRU
THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER TROF...COLD POOL ALOFT AND MID MAY INSOLATION
WILL CONSPIRE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SCT SHRA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND WHILE AREAS NEAR THE
LAKES COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABILIZING MARINE LAYER
BEHIND INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZES. BEST CHC OF SHRA WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR CNTRL. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C AT 12Z SAT...PCPN SHOULD
BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN CAUSE
THE PTYPE TO BECOME ONLY LIQUID IN THE AFTN...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW IN THE AFTN IF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.
SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE
NE AND WEAKENS...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES ARE FCST TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTED
THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH FEATURE AND
HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STABLE AIR
OVER CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TO PREVENT ANY OF THESE SFC BASED -SHRA
FROM REACHING UPPER MI. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...FCST 850MB TEMPS AROUND
2C ON SUN AND 5C ON MON SHOULD ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60F
AND INTO THE 60S RESPECTIVELY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. EARLY SUN AND MON MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE 20S AT SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TIMING OF
FEATURE AND HOW QUICKLY PCPN SPREADS INTO DRY AIR MASS EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S FROM HUDSON BAY STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING E TO REFLECT THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
GUSTY N WINDS THIS AFTN UNDER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK
OF LO PRES MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL LKS WL DIMINISH TNGT WITH THE
CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES/WEAKER GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. OTRW...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES MAY FALL AT CMX...VFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LLVL AIR WL DOMINATE CMX AND IWD THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME -SN WL FALL THIS AFTN/EVNG AT SAW...WHICH WL BE
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LO. WITH A FVRBL UPSLOPE N WIND...
EXPECT MVFR WX TO PREDOMINATE AT THIS SITE TNGT. CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE ON FRI WITH DEPARTURE OF LO/DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY AND THEN
TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRI EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25KT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20KT AND EVEN UNDER 10KT AT TIMES UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD. ADVISORIES REMAIN
AT THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AS WELL AS WITCH LAKE AND CRYSTAL
FALLS ON THE MICHIGAMME. THE STEADY TO SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
WV LOOP AND ANALYSIS OF RAP H5 HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP TROUGH FROM
PARENT UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY TO ONE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DROPPING SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ORIGIN IN THE
EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA FM SE CONUS
TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THUS FAR PRECIPITATION IS AS CLOSE AS EAST
CENTRAL WI AND FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. BAND OF RAIN IS ALONG AND
EAST OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON LK
MICHIGAN. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR BLO H6...AND THIS IS SO FAR
RESTRICTING WESTWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION. OVER THE MQT CWA
THERE IS A THICK SHIELD OF MID CLOUDS WHICH HAS MAINLY HELD TEMPS UP
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY EXCEPTION IS INTERIOR WEST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE LOCALLY DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S.
FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS LIFTS ALMOST DUE NORTH TOWARD
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIG
INTO THE TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIP TO THE SE SUPPORTED BY THE FRONT AT H7
TO TRY TO BACK WESTWARD INTO AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING. BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SFC T/TD
COULD SEE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ONCE PRECIP BEGINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD THEN EXPAND FOR ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF
OF CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE/H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND SWATH OF HIGHER H7-H85 RH ALONG AND WEST OF H85-H7 LOWS...
SHOWING UP AS ENHANCED CLOUD ON WV LOOP OVER IA AND WI..LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS MAIN SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE HURON. NORTH WINDS ON
EDGE OF SFC-H85 LOWS MAY ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF PRECIP AS FAR WEST
AS NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS PRECIP
WOULD BEGIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND SNOW WOULD BE THE
MAIN PTYPE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND
SINCE THIS IS OCCURRING DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES BY EVENING OVER
EAST AS STRONGER LIFT/DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OUTWEIGH THESE OTHER
FACTORS.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WILL BE ONGOING OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN AS SHORTWAVE/LARGER SCALE ASCENT IS LIFTING THROUGH.
BEGINNING TO THINK WEST EDGE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE PULLED
FARTHER WEST...PERHAPS TO CMX-LNL LINE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MAY
BE NUDGED WEST WITH THE ADDITIONAL INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE COMPLETE PHASING BTWN
THESE FEATURES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT PRECIP PATTERN SOMEWHAT. THINK
THAT THE EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FOR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AS THE NORTH WINDS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING.
SOUNDINGS POINT TO SLR/S STRUGGLING TO 10:1 BUT MORE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL HELP THIS OUT SOME. CURRENT FORECAST USED BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BIT OF 00Z NAM TO PICK UP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BETTER. THIS RESULTED IN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
CONSTANT THEME WITH THIS SYSTEM...THINGS LOOK TO BE CHANGING AGAIN.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN ENHANCED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST
TRACK OF SYSTEM...THINK THAT THE 06Z NAM RUN WHICH SHOWS ROUGHLY
DOUBLE OF THE TOTAL QPF IT DID ON THE 00Z RUN COULD BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. MAY BE OVERPLAYING THINGS SOME THOUGH. IF THIS IDEA IS MORE
IN LINE...THEN AREAS FROM KEWEENAW TO DELTA COUNTY WOULD SEE AROUND
1 INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT...WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL IN BARAGA
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES COULD END UP WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES...MAYBE 4
INCHES.
NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT LATEST
DATA AND MAKE A CALL IF ONE IS NEEDED. GREATEST CHANCE THAT THE SNOW
WOULD IMPACT ROADS WOULD NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS BLYR
SUFFICIENTLY COOLS...BUT THEN THE QUESTION IS WILL THE SNOWFALL
RATES BE ALL THAT HEAVY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS PRETTY MUCH HERE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EHWO GRAPHICS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROF (500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WITH AXIS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO START THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NE AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENED
TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR PERHAPS A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT IS SUPPRESSED BY ENERGY
ROUNDING RIDGE AND THEN HEADING INTO THE LINGERING NE TROF. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO START
THE LONG TERM WILL MODERATE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL MID TO LATE MAY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT FARTHER AHEAD...THERE ARE
STILL NO INDICATIONS OF SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SETTING UP IN
THE NEXT WEEK TO 14 DAYS. AFTER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROF
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRY DAYS SHOULD SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
AGGRESSIVELY SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED PCPN ENCROACH ON DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S
FROM HUDSON BAY. IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE SHRA REACH WRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE E STAYS DRY.
BEGINNING FRI...DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS) IN THE MORNING...MAINLY
FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WHERE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE NNW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID THE PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE SHOWN SWINGING N ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N THRU ERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WHICH ALSO LEADS TO BEST DEEP
MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTING N...PCPN WILL BE DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BY AFTN...PCPN WILL TURN TO
SCT SHOWERY AS STEADIER SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS AND MID MAY DAYTIME
HEATING THRU CLOUD COVER GENERATES SOME INSTABILITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO WORK TO CHANGE PTYPE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM (UNDER AN INCH) OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL IN THE MORNING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUM WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH
TEMPS NOT REACHING 40F IN SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F FAR SCNTRL.
FRI NIGHT...COVERAGE OF LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS THE
CLOSED LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS.
ON SAT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND S THRU
THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER TROF...COLD POOL ALOFT AND MID MAY INSOLATION
WILL CONSPIRE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SCT SHRA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND WHILE AREAS NEAR THE
LAKES COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABILIZING MARINE LAYER
BEHIND INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZES. BEST CHC OF SHRA WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR CNTRL. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C AT 12Z SAT...PCPN SHOULD
BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN CAUSE
THE PTYPE TO BECOME ONLY LIQUID IN THE AFTN...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW IN THE AFTN IF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.
SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE
NE AND WEAKENS...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES ARE FCST TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTED
THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH FEATURE AND
HAS MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STABLE AIR
OVER CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR TO PREVENT ANY OF THESE SFC BASED -SHRA
FROM REACHING UPPER MI. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...FCST 850MB TEMPS AROUND
2C ON SUN AND 5C ON MON SHOULD ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60F
AND INTO THE 60S RESPECTIVELY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. EARLY SUN AND MON MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE 20S AT SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TIMING OF
FEATURE AND HOW QUICKLY PCPN SPREADS INTO DRY AIR MASS EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING S FROM HUDSON BAY STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING E TO REFLECT THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
GUSTY N WINDS THIS AFTN UNDER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK
OF LO PRES MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL LKS WL DIMINISH TNGT WITH THE
CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES/WEAKER GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. OTRW...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES MAY FALL AT CMX...VFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LLVL AIR WL DOMINATE CMX AND IWD THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME -SN WL FALL THIS AFTN/EVNG AT SAW...WHICH WL BE
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LO. WITH A FVRBL UPSLOPE N WIND...
EXPECT MVFR WX TO PREDOMINATE AT THIS SITE TNGT. CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE ON FRI WITH DEPARTURE OF LO/DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY AND THEN
TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRI EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25KT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20KT AND EVEN UNDER 10KT AT TIMES UNDER WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
THERE ARE NO FCST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN FLOOD. ADVISORIES REMAIN
AT THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL AS WELL AS WITCH LAKE AND CRYSTAL
FALLS ON THE MICHIGAMME. THE STEADY TO SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL...THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
600 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A TSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. ADDED
POPS AND WX THERE AND EXTENDED IT NORTH INTO SRN TIER THIS
EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVP WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NOW AND THEN, THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT, A BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PA QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS, RANGING FROM 1500 FEET ON
THE HILLTOPS TO 2500 FEET IN THE VALLEYS BETWEEN 0Z AND 02Z. UP
NORTH A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, CLOSER TO 08Z OR THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS IN PLACE WILL LOW TO LOW END MVFR.
WHILE IFR CAN`T BE RULED OUT, THESE CIGS ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS BY A LEAST A FEW
HOURS ON THIS PASSAGE, THUS WENT IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. THIS WOULD
BRING IFR CIGS INTO THE ELM/KSYR/KITH AREA AROUND 12Z. WITH A VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS, OR ROUGHLY
TOWARD 21Z TO 23Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
LGT SHOWERS HV SPREAD INTO WRN NY IN AREA OF DEEP SRLY AND
ANONYMOUSLY MOIST FLOW COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE GOM. H5 LOW SPINNING
THRU IOWA WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CWA IS SQUASHED IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A STEADY FEED OF
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
CDFNT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO ERN OH AND WITH FLOW FM THE SFC TO UPR
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH, EXPECT FRONT TO
PROPAGATE VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE CWA DRG THE OVRNGT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING INTO ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND LATEST HRRR DOES NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO WRN STEUBEN
UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWERS DO NOT GET INTO
THE FINGER LKS UNTIL AFT 02Z TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VRY THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
IMMEDIATELY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. HV TRIED TO INDICATE THIN AREA OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA.
WL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN GRIDS UNTIL 06Z THEN A MENTION OF
MODERATE RAIN AND A CHC FOR HVY RAIN THEREAFTER AS UPPER LVL JET
STREAK SETS UP SHOP ACRS THE GREAT LKS WITH REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL AFT 06Z
ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND THEN VRY SLOWLY APPCH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BTWN
12Z-15Z. MOST OF THE HVY RAIN WL FALL BHND THE FRONT WITH THUNDER
JUST OUT AHD OF BNDRY.
FOR THIS REASON HV EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH AREAS WEST OF I-81 VALID FM 03Z FRI - 00Z SAT AND EAST OF I-81
FROM 06Z FRI- 06Z SAT. SRLY H8 JET OF 50-60KTS KICKS IN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT WHICH IS A GOOD 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF 2-3 SD LEADS TO A POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
36-HR STORM TOTAL AMNTS LOOK TO RANGE FM 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DVLP OVRNGT. IF
THESE AMNTS FALL IN LESS THAN A 6-HR PERIOD OF TIME THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING, HWVR IF THEY FALL OVR A 12-HR PERIOD OF TIME THESE
AMNTS MAY CAUSE JUST NUISANCE FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
EXISTS FEEL IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CNTRL
NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WL CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTN BUT RAIN
WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM WEST TO EAST AFT 21Z AS AREA LOSES UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE AS UPR LVL JET SHIFTS EAST. HVY STRATIFORM RAIN WL OCCUR
THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES RMNG FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE M/U 50S WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER FALLING DRG THE DAY
WITH HIGHS COMING MID-MRNG.
UPR LVL LOW WL PERSIST BACK TO THE WEST THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. SAT NGT LOWS
WL BE APPCHG FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING EAST AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. OUR AREA WILL BE IN
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NICE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SENDS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
OUR WAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, OR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVP WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NOW AND THEN, THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT, A BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PA QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS, RANGING FROM 1500 FEET ON
THE HILLTOPS TO 2500 FEET IN THE VALLEYS BETWEEN 0Z AND 02Z. UP
NORTH A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, CLOSER TO 08Z OR THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS IN PLACE WILL LOW TO LOW END MVFR.
WHILE IFR CAN`T BE RULED OUT, THESE CIGS ARE NOT LIKELY UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS BY A LEAST A FEW
HOURS ON THIS PASSAGE, THUS WENT IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. THIS WOULD
BRING IFR CIGS INTO THE ELM/KSYR/KITH AREA AROUND 12Z. WITH A VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT IFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS, OR ROUGHLY
TOWARD 21Z TO 23Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES
THROUGH REGION.
SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUN/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT MAINLY
VFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...CMG/PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
117 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FREEZE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY (08Z) POSITIONED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...AND IN THE MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS IS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CANCEL PART OF
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEARING
FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST...AND ONLY CANCEL A PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (FOR NOW).
TODAY...SINCE THE SFC HIGH SEEMS TO BE BUILDING IN A BIT SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASE SKY COVER...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
BIT. OTHERWISE...STILL ANTICIPATE CLEARING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH OVERTAKES THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE NIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKY APPEARS VERY LIKELY. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS TO VALUES
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT.
FRIDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING...BUT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...LEADING TO LESS CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ONE LAST NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CRASHES THE PAC NW.
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WX DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
60F ON SATURDAY...AND REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SPLIT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUE
AND WED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WITH AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD OUT THERE AGAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THINK MOST OF THE CUMULUS SHOULD FADE AWAY. AFTER THAT
LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1109 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND CUMULUS
IS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FREEZE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY (08Z) POSITIONED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S
WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...AND IN THE MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS IS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CANCEL PART OF
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEARING
FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST...AND ONLY CANCEL A PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (FOR NOW).
TODAY...SINCE THE SFC HIGH SEEMS TO BE BUILDING IN A BIT SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASE SKY COVER...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
BIT. OTHERWISE...STILL ANTICIPATE CLEARING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH OVERTAKES THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE NIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKY APPEARS VERY LIKELY. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS TO VALUES
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT.
FRIDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING...BUT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...LEADING TO LESS CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ONE LAST NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CRASHES THE PAC NW.
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WX DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
60F ON SATURDAY...AND REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SPLIT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUE
AND WED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
VFR CIGS (ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY) WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST AND APPROACHING NORTHEAST ARKANSAS RATHER
QUICKLY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ROTATING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
DIGGING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED SEVERE LIMITS FOR HAIL IN LITTLE ROCK`S CWA. AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HEALTHY AROUND 7
C/KM AND 8 C/KM RESPECTIVELY AND THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS RATHER
LOW DUE TO THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AND A FEW SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST MENTIONABLE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONGEST WAVES MOVE THROUGH AT THAT TIME. TOTAL QPF VALUES WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN AROUND A HALF INCH OR BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLD -25C
500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND QUICKLY BECOME
AMPLIFIED BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 AND TREND WARMER
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SETTING UP MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUMMER-LIKE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.
HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR GUIDANCE TO ADD VCSH TO KJBR AND
KMEM THROUGH 01/02 RESPECTIVELY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY NOON TOMORROW.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
116 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE NICELY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AFTER A
CHILLY START. MOST AREAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE A LOW STRATUS
DECK IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT WITHIN THE HOUR BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
12Z HRRR MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND WILL BRING OFF AND ON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THE WARM FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PUSHES EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. A SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
KRM
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.
HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR GUIDANCE TO ADD VCSH TO KJBR AND
KMEM THROUGH 01/02 RESPECTIVELY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY NOON TOMORROW.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1137 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR FORMATTING ISSUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE NICELY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AFTER A
CHILLY START. MOST AREAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE A LOW STRATUS
DECK IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT WITHIN THE HOUR BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
12Z HRRR MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND WILL BRING OFF AND ON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THE WARM FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PUSHES EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. A SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. INCLUDED VCSH
AT JBR ONLY WHERE AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS
WILL VARY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST GENERALLY 5-10KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1233 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TODAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP US COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIGHTNING STARTING TO INCREASE WITHIN THE
CONVECTION. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND
CONCERNED THAT A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE WILL BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS
SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR COUNTIES
AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CASWELLCOUNTY
IN NORTH CAROLINA TO ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY IN VIRGINIA.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS ADVANCING
FASTER THAN MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. LEADING LINE OF THE MAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...IS
PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING GENERALLY FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS GETTING READY TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MODELS STILL CALLING FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT TO BRING A
RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM THE NEW RIVER
EASTWARD DURING EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS.
SEE NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...BASICALLY INDICATING
THAT TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TIME WHEN THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERS A GIVEN LOCATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 4 AM...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST TO COVER REST OF THE PIEDMONT...PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM WPC...AS WELL AS COLLABORATING
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
WILL SEE RAINFALL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. ALREADY
GETTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ALREADY SEEING ONE HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATAUGA AND WILKES.
WV LOOP AND PWATS INDICATED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. THERE IS ANOTHER CONNECTION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL.
THESE TWO PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION
THRU THIS EVENING.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO GIVEN SE TO SOUTH FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING ELEMENTS OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR RIVER FLOODING LATER TONIGHT-FRIDAY GIVEN SLOW
NATURE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 4-5" AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM BOONE TO FLOYD AND PERHAPS UP TOWARD APPLE ORCHARD MTN.
ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR THREAT. THE WIND ENERGY WILL BE
THERE AS WELL AS HIGHER HUMIDITY. LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF
HEATING. STILL HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN THE
LINE ITSELF COULD HAVE EMBEDDED HIGH WIND THREAT. THIS IN CONCERT
WITH SPC/S SLIGHT RISK THREAT.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST GIVEN ONSET OF
RAIN EARLY WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH IN THE WEST. LACK
OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST BEFORE THE RAIN MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE 10
DEGREES FROM THE UPPER 60S EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 80.
MEANWHILE...THINK THE MOUNTAINS OF NC INTO SE WV WILL ONLY STAY
STEADY OR FALL ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN. BLF CURRENTLY 68...SO HIGH
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN INCLUDING EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE 85H BOUNDARY SLOW TO EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT...EXPECT THE
BAND TO STALL FOR A BIT AND TRAIN UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPCLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK IMPULSES SHEAR
THROUGH THE PLUME OF VERY HIGH PWATS ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SHOULD BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ADDED AMOUNTS OF 1-
2+ INCHES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ROUGHLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND OUT
EAST MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN FRIDAY PENDING HOW FAST THE BAND
SHIFTS EAST LATE AT NIGHT UNDER THE PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER NOW IN SLIDING THE BAND EAST ONCE THE
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND HEADS NE SO SPED UP MOVEMENT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REDUCED TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE
WEST LATE. HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALSO LIKELY AS EARLY SE
UPSLOPE INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING 85H JET ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ESPCLY DURING THU EVENING BUT IFFY LIKELY GIVEN SUCH A DEFINED AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AFTER THE LEADING
EDGE PUSHES ACROSS. THUS CONTINUED WITH CAT POPS THIS EVENING WITH A
FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST HIGH POPS
CONFINED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
BASICALLY LOW CHANCES FAR EAST BY DAWN FRIDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE UPPER COLD POOL LAGS
BACK WITH THE COMBO OF SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLING LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
A FEW ADDED -SHRA BANDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE EAST. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE UNDER THE 5H TROUGH BY SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER UPSLOPE AIDED ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SAT
NIGHT SO KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
OTRW THE PASSING FRONT TO START THE ONSET OF COOL ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BRUNT OF THE 85H COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS LIKELY TO KEEP MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS SOME 30S DEEPER
VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WEST. EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCRAPE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS BUT PERHAPS ONLY THAT WARM IN THE PIEDMONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH FOR MID/LATE MAY WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE INTO
EARLY AND MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS
ESPCLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD. WITH THE COLD POOL ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO HELP POP ISOLATED
AFTERNOON -SHRA MAINLY OVER THE NW SO KEPT IN A LOW POP THERE. OTRW
MODELS SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK OF THE
DEPARTING 5H TROUGH WHILE UNDERCUTTING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTS DRIER LOW LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH ANY IMPULSES ALOFT ONLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CU AND
ISOLATED -SHRA AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
BY MID WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE DISTINCT WAVE SLIDING SE IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. EARLIER EC MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH POSSIBLE MCS BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO
TIME THIS ESPCLY GIVEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES. THUS INCLUDING A BIT
HIGHER POP ON DAY7 FOR NOW.
OTRW MAINLY PC WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY
ON...REBOUNDING TO MOSTLY 70S BY WED. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH
PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH 30S FOR SOME PATCHY DEEP VALLEY FROST
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AVIATION FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATEST RAP AND NEAR TERM RADAR/SAT
TRENDS. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER BCB AT
12Z...ENDING BY 13Z. STILL THINKING THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL STAY MVFR
OR LOWER TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. MODELS FAVOR SLOW DOWN BUT LATEST TRENDS THIS
MORNING PER RADAR/SAT INDICATE THAT BLF COULD DRY OUT FASTER. WILL
HANG ONTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 06Z BUT SPEED THINGS UP ABOUT
1-2 HRS. OVERNIGHT...THE EAST WILL STAY WITH SHOWERS WHILE WEST
WINDS DRY THINGS ACROSS THE WEST...ALTHOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT ROA/LYH/DAN BY 12Z FRIDAY TO
VFR...AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD START TO SCOUR OUT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING IN SOME SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH BKN MVFR CIGS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG WITH
SCT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING
LWB/BLF/BCB THE MOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED EAST TO COVER REST OF THE PIEDMONT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES LIKELY FOR AREAL AVERAGE. AREAS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY GOING TO SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4-5" WITH RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1.5" IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES.
ALSO...GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW MAIN STEM RIVER POINTS HEAD TOWARD MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW THE RAINFALL TOTALS PAN OUT AND WHICH BASINS GET THE MOST.
GEFS AND NAEFS RIVER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS STILL FAVORING THE
GREENBRIER TO GET HIT THE HARDEST POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MODERATE
FLOOD AT ALDERSON. MEANWHILE...THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP