Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
135 PM MST THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A DRY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...BUT THE COOLDOWN WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR UT/CO BORDER THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES...ONE ALREADY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
AND A WEAKER ONE JUST UPSTREAM. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND LOCAL HI
RES MODELS INDICATE THAT EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. THUS INSERTED A LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY EAST OF GLOBE
FOR TODAY. THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA WILL
PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY 00Z AS THESE EMBEDDED WAVES...AND THE OVERALL
SYSTEM...SHIFT EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 142 AM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS OF 08Z. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAS MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA HOWEVER THE DESERTS REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...TEMPS AS OF 08Z WERE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES /2-3 DEGREES
IN MOST SPOTS/ WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ASIDE
FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO
THE MID 80S TODAY AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ARE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EACH
OTHER AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN DECENT TEMPORAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHEREAS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH ITS MORE
PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DRY SOURCE REGION FROM
WHICH THE TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING. NEITHER SOLUTION INDICATES A
PARTICULARLY MOIST OR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ALSO LENDING CREDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN CU OR VIRGA EAST OF PHOENIX BUT THAT`S ABOUT
IT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR OTHER
PRODUCTS AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.
POST-TROUGH FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY TO
STRONG RIDGING BY MID WEEK. IT`S ALMOST INEVITABLE THAT TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BASED ON THIS MORNING`S 00Z CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND
DIURNAL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES BY THE
LATE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS SYSTEM
STRONGER AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO ARIZONA FOR
SUNDAY AND SOMEWHAT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP LATE SATURDAY AND ALSO FOR
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING LIGHTER WINDS...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A DRY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...BUT THE COOLDOWN WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR UT/CO BORDER THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES...ONE ALREADY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
AND A WEAKER ONE JUST UPSTREAM. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND LOCAL HI
RES MODELS INDICATE THAT EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. THUS INSERTED A LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY EAST OF GLOBE
FOR TODAY. THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA WILL
PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY 00Z AS THESE EMBEDDED WAVES...AND THE OVERALL
SYSTEM...SHIFT EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 142 AM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS OF 08Z. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAS MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA HOWEVER THE DESERTS REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...TEMPS AS OF 08Z WERE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES /2-3 DEGREES
IN MOST SPOTS/ WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ASIDE
FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO
THE MID 80S TODAY AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ARE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EACH
OTHER AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN DECENT TEMPORAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHEREAS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH ITS MORE
PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DRY SOURCE REGION FROM
WHICH THE TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING. NEITHER SOLUTION INDICATES A
PARTICULARLY MOIST OR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ALSO LENDING CREDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN CU OR VIRGA EAST OF PHOENIX BUT THAT`S ABOUT
IT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR OTHER
PRODUCTS AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.
POST-TROUGH FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY TO
STRONG RIDGING BY MID WEEK. IT`S ALMOST INEVITABLE THAT TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BASED ON THIS MORNING`S 00Z CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL LAG OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...KEEPING
PERIODS OF MOSTLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 15KFT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE PHX AREA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VARIABLE
IN NATURE WITH SPEEDS 8KTS OR LESS...SO WINDS AT KPHX MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEST TO VARIABLE HEADINGS. BY MIDDAY...WINDS TO
TURN S/SE FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WHILE TRUE WEST HEADINGS SHOULD SETTLE
IN FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES BY THE
LATE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS SYSTEM
STRONGER AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO ARIZONA FOR
SUNDAY AND SOMEWHAT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP LATE SATURDAY AND ALSO FOR
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING LIGHTER WINDS...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
340 PM PDT Thu May 8 2014
.Synopsis...
A chance of showers tonight and again on Saturday. A few
thunderstorms possible in eastern Shasta County this evening and
on Saturday afternoon. Below normal temperatures through
Saturday. Dry and above normal temperatures next week. Highs may
reach 15-20 degrees above normal by mid week.
&&
.Discussion...
A shortwave trough will pass through the Pacific northwest and far
northern California tonight. A weak warm front has brought very
little precipitation so far. Current radar just shows some light
returns in the mountains. WRF and HRRR now showing more
significant showers spreading into the northern Sacramento Valley
later this afternoon as a cold front moves through. There could
be enough instability for some heavier convective showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the mountains of eastern Shasta County
this evening, but instability is looking less and less favorable.
Have removed mention of Sierra thunderstorms.
The best dynamics with this system remain north of the area so not
expecting significant precipitation totals. Rainfall in the Valley
should be mainly overnight and amounts should should be light for
the southern and central Sacramento Valley/northern San Joaquin Valley.
The northern Sacramento Valley could see maybe around a tenth of
an inch in the far northern Sacramento Valley. Some very light
snow is possible over the higher peaks of the Sierra, with no
impacts expected for the Sierra passes.
Lingering showers over the mountains Friday, mainly in the
morning. Dry weather returns late in the day, with another storm
arriving on Saturday. This system looks like it will impact mainly
the northern mountains. It will be limited in moisture, so not
expecting much in the way of precipitation. Instability could be
enough for a few thunderstorms in eastern Shasta County Saturday
afternoon, though. Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday,
which is a little warmer than we are seeing today. Northerly winds
will be quite breezy Saturday afternoon and evening.
A big change in the pattern arrives on Sunday, as strong ridging
develops. Afternoon highs will jump about 10 degrees warmer, and
this is just the beginning of a muli-day warming trend. EK
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
High pressure will build over California through the extended
period, bringing a stretch of very warm and dry weather. Models
have been showing good run-to-run consistency and strong agreement
in this solution. The ridge axis is expected to move over
California on Wednesday/Thursday, meaning those will likely be the
warmest days of this stretch. With 850 mb temps expected to reach
roughly 21-23 C, surface temperatures in the Valley should heat
up to the upper 90s. This should keep high temperatures just below
record thresholds.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across Valley TAF sites.
A weak low pressure system will be moving through the area through
18z Friday. A few light showers will be possible in the Valley,
with scattered MVFR/IFR conditions possible over the mountains
through Friday. South to west winds 10-15 kt with locally higher
gusts will be possible across the Valley through this evening.
Near the delta, southwest wind gusts up to 30 kt possible.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1043 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEFORE IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...YIELDING A ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOTHERS DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WHILE KBOX 88D RADAR IS NOT SHOWING ORGANIZED PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...DO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA ON
THE NORTHEAST REGIONAL RADAR. OUR REGION IS DIRECTLY BENEATH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WAS KEEPING OUR WEATHER MOSTLY DRY BUT
CLOUDY. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
OBSERVED TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE THE REST OF TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND TIME SECTIONS REVEAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW IS RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE CT
RVR VLY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN /UPSLOPE FLOW/. THIS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. THUS...NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING. NOT A WASHOUT JUST SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS THINKING AS WELL.
LATER TONIGHT WARM FRONT ENTERS THE REGION WITH RAIN BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AS MODELS INDICATE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION 06-12Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT A
VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOUR TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DEFINITELY A BIT OF A SUMMER-ISH FEEL TO THE AIRMASS TOMORROW WITH
MAY SUNSHINE LIFTING TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND DEW PTS IN THE L60S.
AS FOR INSTABILITY DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ONLY 200-500 J/KG OF MU AND MEAN CAPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ALONG WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT. THUS THINKING AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
GIVEN MU CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG OR LESS ALONG WITH MARGINAL WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NON SEVERE. GIVEN
THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL LATE WARM SPRING AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED-
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOWARD 12Z SUN FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY...WARM WEATHER FOR MOTHERS DAY AND MONDAY
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS
* NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY
MODEL CONFIDENCE AND PREFERENCES...
NOTING THAT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS OP RUNS ALONG WITH 12Z GGEM HAVE
COME ON BOARD WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF WITH MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW
EXPECTING A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT...SURFACE RIDGING ALSO BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND LABRADOR
THEN SHIFTS DOWN THE ATLC COAST...CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION FROM NE TO SW AROUND THE LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE
TIMEFRAME. THE FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN/CENTRAL NY STATE INTO N NJ. SO...WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MARITIME AIR OFF THE COLD OCEAN /SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/. TIMING OF MIGRATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK LENDS TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT BUMPS INTO
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES.
USED A BLEND OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE...INCLUDING
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO INCORPORATED ENSEMBLE MEANS.
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
WILL SEE A DRY AND MILD SPRING DAY FOR MOTHERS DAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRES RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH W WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH...HIGHEST WELL INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS N CT/W MA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE W...THIS FRONT HANGS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOME SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO NOTING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING AT OR BELOW ZERO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER. COULD BE A RATHER
MILD DAY WITH SOME READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 80 WELL
INLAND...BUT UNCERTAIN OF THIS DUE TO STALLING FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
DOWN FROM MAINE LATE MON NIGHT...SO STALLED FRONT COULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT S-SW. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
TUESDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME IN LINE IN PUSHING BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...FROM NE-SW DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE SOME SCT
SHOWERS BUT SHOULD PUSH FROM E TO W DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY
STILL SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS N CT/RI THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY...THEN WILL PUSH OFF THE S COAST. E-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ALONG THE E COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG THE E COAST TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. WILL
BE CHILLY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH
SOME LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WILL SLOW SURFACE SYSTEMS DOWN AS FRONT
STALLS ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE INTO N NJ. EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS TO LINGER ACROSS CT VALLEY AND E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES INTO WED NIGHT...THEN MAY START TO SHIFT E AS UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY START TO APPROACH THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY TO RUN CLOSE TO OR UP TO 5
DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MODELS DO DIVERGE ON HOW IT RESOLVES THEIR TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MVFR WILL TREND TO IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS. BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOWARD MORNING. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TOWARD 12Z.
SATURDAY...ANY LEFTOVER IFR IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR TOWARD MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM.
SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS ANY
EARLY VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR SHOULD LIMIT BRIEFLY TO MVFR
AFTER 21Z AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND THEN S. MVFR LOWERS TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD 12Z SAT.
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SAT AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE CT RVR VLY
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. W WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST LATE SUN
NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. PATCHY FOG
LATE MON NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS MAINLY ALONG S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM NE TO SW DURING TUE. WINDS
SHIFT FROM LIGHT W TO E-NE FROM E MA WESTWARD. GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT MAINLY ALONG E COAST. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MAY SEE
LOWER CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS E MA DURING
TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LEFTOVER SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER INTO TUE EVENING...THEN SHIFTS W.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CT VALLEY TO E SLOPES OF
BERKSHIRES WED...WHILE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLY
LINGER ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...NE/SE WINDS BECOME SSW LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE MAY LOWER VSBY 1-3 MILES WITH A LOW RISK OF DENSE FOG
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING SSW 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR
SHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT AS DURATION AND
FREQUENCY OF 25 KT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TSTM NEAR SHORE. ANY
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBY SHOULD BE GOOD GIVEN SW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT W WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS INTO SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE W GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ON NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUN NIGHT POSSIBLE ALONG IMMEDIATE S COASTAL
WATERS.
MONDAY...
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BUT STALLS. S-SW WINDS REMAIN AT 15 KT
OR LESS...THEN DIMINISH INTO MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT
APPROACHES. NOTING WIND SHIFT TO N OVER THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH FRONT IN VICINITY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO
NE...GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KT ON THE OPEN WATERS BEGINNING TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. EXPECT E-NE SWELLS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE INTO
TUE EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT SW AS FRONT PASSES TUE NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...LINE OF CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AS THIS LINE HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS AND MARINE INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS DRY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK
STATE. THIS COOLER ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS COURTESY OF A
MARINE INFLUENCE WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE STRATUS
DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE FAIRLY STEEP SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHOWERS ENVELOPE OUR AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF STILL INDICATING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. EXPECTING MAINLY MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT
FOR COOLER LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...THE SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THESE AREAS GOING WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS WILL END IN ALL AREAS. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS OVERUNNING
MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO
PCPN HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE UNSETTLED
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN APPROACH
80 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...ONLY GENERIC NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION IN TERM OF
TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE ON
TUESDAY...SO WILL STILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WARM MAX TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT ALONG
WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL DUE
TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT. WE COULD GET A BREAK IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
STILL BE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
MORE WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COMPLICATING
MATTERS IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST...BUT IS
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TERMINALS REMAIN IN THICK LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING
UNDER MARINE INFLUENCE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KALB/KGFL AND IFR AT
KPOU/KPSF. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EVEN AT
KALB/KGFL BY LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. SOME IFR VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KPOU/KPSF TONIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ONE PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END...SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KPSF-KPOU DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION VCSH AT
THESE SITES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALL
WATERWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEFORE IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...YIELDING A ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOTHERS DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
WHILE KBOX 88D RADAR IS NOT SHOWING ORGANIZED PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...DO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA ON NE
REGIONAL RADAR. ALSO NOTED -DZ REPORTED AT 23Z AT KBDL...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE SPOTTY -DZ REPORTED MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A COUPLE OF
READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S REPORTED IN N CT.
HIGHER DEWPTS ACROSS CT VALLEY MAY DROP OFF A BIT EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE READINGS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WITH MORE FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO KEPT SLOW UPWARD TREND OF
TEMPS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND TIME SECTIONS REVEAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW IS RESULTING IN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE CT
RVR VLY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN /UPSLOPE FLOW/. THIS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. THUS...NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING. NOT A WASHOUT JUST SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS THINKING AS WELL.
LATER TONIGHT WARM FRONT ENTERS THE REGION WITH RAIN BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AS MODELS INDICATE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION 06-12Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT A
VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOUR TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DEFINITELY A BIT OF A SUMMER-ISH FEEL TO THE AIRMASS TOMORROW WITH
MAY SUNSHINE LIFTING TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND DEW PTS IN THE L60S.
AS FOR INSTABILITY DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ONLY 200-500 J/KG OF MU AND MEAN CAPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ALONG WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT. THUS THINKING AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
GIVEN MU CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG OR LESS ALONG WITH MARGINAL WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NON SEVERE. GIVEN
THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL LATE WARM SPRING AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED-
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOWARD 12Z SUN FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY...WARM WEATHER FOR MOTHERS DAY AND MONDAY
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS
* NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY
MODEL CONFIDENCE AND PREFERENCES...
NOTING THAT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS OP RUNS ALONG WITH 12Z GGEM HAVE
COME ON BOARD WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF WITH MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW
EXPECTING A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT...SURFACE RIDGING ALSO BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND LABRADOR
THEN SHIFTS DOWN THE ATLC COAST...CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION FROM NE TO SW AROUND THE LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE
TIMEFRAME. THE FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN/CENTRAL NY STATE INTO N NJ. SO...WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MARITIME AIR OFF THE COLD OCEAN /SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/. TIMING OF MIGRATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK LENDS TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT BUMPS INTO
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES.
USED A BLEND OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE...INCLUDING
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO INCORPORATED ENSEMBLE MEANS.
DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
WILL SEE A DRY AND MILD SPRING DAY FOR MOTHERS DAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRES RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH W WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH...HIGHEST WELL INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS N CT/W MA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE W...THIS FRONT HANGS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOME SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO NOTING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING AT OR BELOW ZERO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER. COULD BE A RATHER
MILD DAY WITH SOME READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 80 WELL
INLAND...BUT UNCERTAIN OF THIS DUE TO STALLING FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
DOWN FROM MAINE LATE MON NIGHT...SO STALLED FRONT COULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT S-SW. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
TUESDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME IN LINE IN PUSHING BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...FROM NE-SW DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE SOME SCT
SHOWERS BUT SHOULD PUSH FROM E TO W DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY
STILL SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS N CT/RI THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY...THEN WILL PUSH OFF THE S COAST. E-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ALONG THE E COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG THE E COAST TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. WILL
BE CHILLY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH
SOME LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WILL SLOW SURFACE SYSTEMS DOWN AS FRONT
STALLS ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE INTO N NJ. EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS TO LINGER ACROSS CT VALLEY AND E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES INTO WED NIGHT...THEN MAY START TO SHIFT E AS UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY START TO APPROACH THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY TO RUN CLOSE TO OR UP TO 5
DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MODELS DO DIVERGE ON HOW IT RESOLVES THEIR TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR SEEN
ACROSS MOST OF MA /EXCEPT E COASTAL AND SE/ AT 23Z...INTO N
CENTRAL CT AND S NH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. MVFR WILL TREND TO IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS. BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOWARD MORNING. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TOWARD 12Z.
SATURDAY...ANY LEFTOVER IFR IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR TOWARD MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM.
SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS ANY
EARLY VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR SHOULD LIMIT BRIEFLY TO MVFR
AFTER 21Z AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND THEN S. MVFR LOWERS TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD 12Z SAT.
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SAT AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE CT RVR VLY
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. W WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST LATE SUN
NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. PATCHY FOG
LATE MON NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS MAINLY ALONG S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM NE TO SW DURING TUE. WINDS
SHIFT FROM LIGHT W TO E-NE FROM E MA WESTWARD. GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT MAINLY ALONG E COAST. WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MAY SEE
LOWER CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS E MA DURING
TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LEFTOVER SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER INTO TUE EVENING...THEN SHIFTS W.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CT VALLEY TO E SLOPES OF
BERKSHIRES WED...WHILE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLY
LINGER ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...NE/SE WINDS BECOME SSW LATER TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE MAY LOWER VSBY 1-3 MILES WITH A LOW RISK OF DENSE FOG
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING SSW 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR
SHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT AS DURATION AND
FREQUENCY OF 25 KT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TSTM NEAR SHORE. ANY
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBY SHOULD BE GOOD GIVEN SW WINDS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT W WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS INTO SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE W GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ON NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUN NIGHT POSSIBLE ALONG IMMEDIATE S COASTAL
WATERS.
MONDAY...
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BUT STALLS. S-SW WINDS REMAIN AT 15 KT
OR LESS...THEN DIMINISH INTO MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT
APPROACHES. NOTING WIND SHIFT TO N OVER THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH FRONT IN VICINITY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO
NE...GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KT ON THE OPEN WATERS BEGINNING TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. EXPECT E-NE SWELLS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE INTO
TUE EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT SW AS FRONT PASSES TUE NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW
YORK STATE. THIS COOLER ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS COURTESY
OF A MARINE INFLUENCE WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE
STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES ALL BUT THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NY AT
THIS HOUR TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRONGER
CELLS IN THIS LINE...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO AN INVERSION AND
MARINE AIR MASS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SO
GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAKES
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE FAIRLY
STEEP SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHOWERS ENVELOPE OUR AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI RES MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. EXPECTING MAINLY MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT
FOR COOLER LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...THE SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THESE AREAS GOING WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS WILL END IN ALL AREAS. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS OVERUNNING
MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO
PCPN HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE UNSETTLED
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN APPROACH
80 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...ONLY GENERIC NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION IN TERM OF
TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE ON
TUESDAY...SO WILL STILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WARM MAX TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT ALONG
WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL DUE
TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT. WE COULD GET A BREAK IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
STILL BE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
MORE WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COMPLICATING
MATTERS IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST...BUT IS
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TERMINALS REMAIN IN THICK LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING
UNDER MARINE INFLUENCE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KALB/KGFL AND IFR AT
KPOU/KPSF. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EVEN AT
KALB/KGFL BY LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. SOME IFR VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KPOU/KPSF TONIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ONE PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END...SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KPSF-KPOU DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION VCSH AT
THESE SITES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALL
WATERWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGH IS
NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE IS BRINGING A WEALTH
OF DIFFERENT WEATHER TO THAT PORTION OF THE COUNTY...FROM HEAVY SNOW
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE FURTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA AND MN. A BUSY WEATHER DAY
CONTINUES FOR THOSE FOLKS UP THERE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM HOWEVER...WE
FIND THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AND DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION (INCLUDING THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA).
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL
BY THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING BETWEEN 700-600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE MOVING OR
EVOLVING MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY REACHING LOWS AROUND SUNRISE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH OF
I-4...AND THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT...PROVIDES A
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG
WITH LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE ARE BOTH POINTING TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...HOWEVER...
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY TO NAVIGATE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAVE ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
FOR THE PREFERRED LOCATIONS WITH THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE FOR DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC PROTECTION
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND GENERALLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ALMOST A COPY OF THURSDAY WITH SUCH A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC SETUP. JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE (IF ANY) TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...SO UPDRAFTS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE AND CUMULUS FIELD WILL
HAVE ISSUES WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE MOST PRONE TO INLAND PENETRATION TO THE NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY WHERE THE GRADIENT IS LIGHTEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.MID TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
EXPECTED LATE DAY SEA BREEZE MERGER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST LOCALES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COOLER
LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS SHOWING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
PENINSULA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN ENSUE OFF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PULLING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION. HIGHER RAIN PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE A DRIER AIRMASS WORK BACK INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF GROUND FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VIS MENTION IN AT THE NORMALLY MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
KLAL AND KPGD. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE FOG MENTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE EVENING TAF PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE IN LOWERED VISIBILITY
INCREASES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THAT
WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON WATERS BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND TARPON
SPRINGS TONIGHT AS AN EASTERLY SURGE SETS UP...DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLD INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXTENDED DURATIONS OF LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED EITHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES EXIST BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY INLAND
FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL...A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AWAY
FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED...
HOWEVER NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 90 72 88 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
SRQ 70 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 63 90 65 88 / 0 10 0 10
SPG 74 89 74 87 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...LEWIS
MID TERM/LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1200 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGH IS
NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE IS BRINGING A WEALTH
OF DIFFERENT WEATHER TO THAT PORTION OF THE COUNTY...FROM HEAVY SNOW
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE TODAY FURTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA AND MN. A BUSY WEATHER
DAY FOR SURE FOR THOSE FOLKS UP THERE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
HOWEVER...WE FIND THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AND DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION (INCLUDING THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA).
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL
BY THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING BETWEEN 700-600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE MOVING OR
EVOLVING MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
SO...WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? THE STACKED RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS
THROUGH THE TROP WILL KEEP OUR LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER DRY AND WARM
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL INTO
THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MIDDAY...ON THEIR WAY TO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S (EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S) AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL SEE ENOUGH TERRESTRIAL HEATING TO
BEGIN SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TURN THE WINDS ONSHORE AT THE
COAST. THIS ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A BIT
COOLER. HOWEVER...THE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST ARE
STARTING TO GET UP THERE AS WELL...AND WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT OF A
NATURAL AIR CONDITIONER FOR MUCH LONGER. THE SEA-BREEZE WILL BE
STRONGEST AND MOST EFFICIENT AT MOVING INLAND FOR THE NATURE COAST
WHERE THE GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL
HAVE THE LEAST IMPACT ON PUSHING BACK THE BOUNDARY.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY REACHING LOWS AROUND SUNRISE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH OF
I-4...AND THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT...PROVIDES A
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG
WITH LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE ARE BOTH POINTING TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...HOWEVER...
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY TO NAVIGATE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL BE ADDING FOG MENTION TO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE PREFERRED LOCATIONS WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE FOR DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
DEAMPLIFYING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC PROTECTION WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND GENERALLY DRY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF GROUND FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VIS MENTION IN AT THE NORMALLY MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
KLAL AND KPGD. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE FOG MENTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE EVENING TAF PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE IN LOWERED VISIBILITY
INCREASES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...A PERIOD OF NEAR CAUTIONARY WINDS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 71 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 92 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 70 87 70 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 92 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 89 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NE FL COAST REMAIN FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF THE LCL WX PATTERN. RUC ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...CONFIRMED BY WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWING DEEP
AND STEADY SE FLOW. MORNING SOUNDINGS MEASURED PWAT VALUES AOB
0.9"...MUCH OF WHICH IS TRAPPED ABV THE H50 LYR. UPSTREAM MOISTURE
INDICATES NO PROSPECT OF ANY SIG CHANGES THIS AFTN...H100-H70 MEAN
RH VALUES AOB 40PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOB 20PCT.
MODERATELY TIGHT SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DVLP THIS
AFTN ALNG THE COAST WITH SFC WNDS GUSTING ARND 20 MPH. COASTAL MAX
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S....INTERIOR TEMPS IN THE L90S.
NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 09/12Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 08/15Z-08/23Z...E/SE SFC WND
G22KTS BTWN KVRB-KSUA.
&&
.MARINE...
HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED BTWN THE BAHAMA BANK AND THE NC OUTER BANKS
WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PGRAD S OF SEBASTIAN INLET WILL ALLOW SFC WND GUSTS
ARND 20KTS NEAR THE COAST THRU LATE AFTN. SEAS AROUND 3FT AREAWIDE
BUT ROUGH...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC DUE TO THE BAHAMA SHADOW RESULTING
FROM THE SE BREEZE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
312 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AREA REMAINS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A
CAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL NO THE NORTH
WHILE A COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE WEST...EXTENDING FROM DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN IA/ERN NE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CNTRL KS/WRN OK.
AS LONG AS THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CAPPED...THE
CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN WILL BE LIMITED. CURRENTLY...THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS INVOF THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WHERE SPC HAS
ISSUED THE FIRST WATCH OF THE DAY OVER WRN IA/NWRN MN. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S ANTICIPATE THAT THE CAP WILL
ERODE WITH TIME THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S...BUT EXPECT THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S THIS EVENING. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
NWRN IL. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TO...POTENTIALLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN IL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE MORE LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE
TONIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE LINEAR...AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST CONSOLIDATES INTO LINES. THUS...THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO BE ARND 1.7 INCHES. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM STEADILY PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SIGNIFICANT ECHO TRAINING. SO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
THE STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...CLEARING THE ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NWRN INDIANA COUNTIES.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BRISK SWLY FLOW
PERSISTING ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE ALL
THE WAY TO THE LAKE FRONT...BUT FOR SATURDAY...A WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP. WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE PREVAILING
SLY TO SWLY...SO...THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD ASSUME A NW-SE ORIENTATION
AND LIKELY ONLY MOVE INLAND FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. WHILE MUCH OF
THE CWA ENJOYS TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THE
LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS FROM CHICAGO TO WAUKEGAN SHOULD SEE HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME BY SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...SO...THE CHANCES FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOW. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST
TO RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO
SLOW THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND A STRUNG OUT FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA RIGHT
ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...WILL CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST...TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE BACK
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKEFRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* A PERIOD OF SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN MORE
PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SEVERAL
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING AND THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE.
ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS BUT POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE GYY TERMINAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY INCREASING IN SPEED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME MID TEEN
GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...YIELDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...AT
TIMES POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT BRIEFLY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. STORMS LOOK LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE GUSTY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIVING THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVES FROM IOWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY IT WILL STEER A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING THOUGH AND ONLY BRIEFLY TURN
THE WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LAKE DURING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Temperatures warming nicely across the forecast area today, with
gusty south-southwest winds and mainly some high clouds. Mostly in
the mid 80s, although some 90 degree temperatures reported at
Champaign and Rantoul at 2 pm. Convection developing as expected
west of the Mississippi River, with one cluster over
Minnesota/Iowa along the warm front, and the second developing
over western Missouri just ahead of the cold front. Both fronts
are tied into a surface low over northeast Nebraska.
Initial forecast concerns are with thunderstorm trends through
Friday including severe threat, followed by timing of
showers/storms for much of the first half of next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night:
Latest mesoscale analysis showing CAPE`s of 1000-1500 J/kg over
the forecast area, with the cap eroding along the Mississippi
River. Latest HRRR has the storms reaching the Illinois River
valley by around 6 pm and I-57 toward 9-10 pm. Areas west of I-55
most likely to see any severe weather as the instability will be
decreasing by the time the storms make it further east. Hail/wind
remains the primary concern with the storms. Secondary line of
showers/storms immediately ahead of the front will begin to move
in after midnight, but think the severe threat will be be over by
that point.
Extent of overnight convection will dictate where the severe
threat is for Friday. Areas south of I-70 would be most likely as
the front comes in and with outflows from the earlier convection
around, but additional instability would likely have to come
during the afternoon in between periods of storms. Will mention
categorical PoP`s over 80% across the southeast third of the
forecast area through the day, with not the rain not fully moving
out of the southeast CWA until closer to midnight. Further west,
will largely go dry west of I-55 during the afternoon.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday:
Short period of dry weather on tap for Saturday as a narrow ridge
axis slides by, but next wave will be approaching from the Plains.
Have added some slight chance PoP`s in the afternoon west of I-55,
but main period of convection will develop Saturday night. Will
introduce likely PoP`s late Saturday night across about the
northwest 2/3 of the forecast area, lingering into Sunday across
the north as remnants of an MCS move across the area.
The forecast from Sunday night into Monday night is more of a
challenge. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF or Canadian
models by surging a cold front through the area Monday night,
while the latter models are close to 24 hours slower. This slower
solution would keep a good part of Sunday night and Monday dry.
This appears to be tied into phasing of the long wave trough across
the Rockies Sunday night, with the GFS featuring a more
progressive wave and the ECMWF cutting off a low over the northern
Dakotas for a time early next week. Am trending the blended model
grids on the slower side, but have not completely eliminated any
PoP`s Monday/Tuesday.
Deep upper trough over the central U.S. to provide a period of
cooler weather for the middle of the week. Will see highs only in
the 60s much of the Tuesday-Thursday period.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 104 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Timing of convection remains tricky later today and tonight as
short-term model solutions are not in good agreement. 14z HRRR
features a broken line of thunderstorms coming into the Illinois
River Valley by around 00z, then steadily pushes it eastward to
I-57 by 04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing with
regards to precip onset, but then shows widespread showers/thunder
continuing across the entire area throughout the night into Friday
morning. With 40-45kt 850mb jet currently focused across the
Plains expected to shift eastward into Illinois tonight, think the
wetter NAM may be the way to go. As such, think current convection
approaching the Ozarks will spread northeastward into central
Illinois this evening, then persist overnight as low-level jet
strengthens. Based on NAM forecast soundings and cross-sections,
will introduce predominant rain with VCTS between 01z and 04z.
Ceilings will initially be VFR, but will drop into the MVFR
category after midnight, then remain there through 18z Fri.
Overnight rain/thunder area will gradually shift eastward and exit
the TAF sites between 13z and 16z.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1058 AM CDT
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID EVE AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S-LOWER 80S
TEMPS AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ASCENT WITHIN AN ELONGATED DEEP MOIST TONGUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BLOSSOMING IN
COVERAGE OR RAPID PROGRESSION EAST IN OUR AREA...AND EVEN THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER. FORCING WILL IMPROVE IN
TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE MIDWEST...AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES SEEN UPSTREAM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TRANSLATE NEAR THE AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE LOOKED AT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MO...EASTERN IA...AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN IL LOOK TO LIMIT RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY IS THOUGHT TO BE WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVE. IF INDEED THAT IS THE CASE...THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE INTO OUR AREA
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE FACT THE DEEPER SHEAR ARRIVES LATER INTO
THE NIGHT AGAINST THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY...WITH THE LARGEST SURROUNDING
PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE RING-O-FIRE WAS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH INTO IOWA...THEN TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
ORIENTATION OUTLINES THE 500MB RIDGE...WHICH PLACES NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN SOLIDLY IN THE CAPPED/WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH
THAT BEING SAID...THE TREND HAS BEEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING IN THE
DIRECTION THAT THE RIDGING OVERHEAD MAY SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY THRU
MIDDAY...WHICH COULD FURTHER DELAY THE MORE OPTIMAL INSTABILITY FROM
ARRIVING OR LATER INTO THE AFTN/EVE. IT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO REMAIN DRY THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING.
HI-RES 4KM GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE CONSERVATIVE...AND HOLDS THE ENTIRE
CWFA DRY THRU 00Z. LOCAL ARW8KM TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
AND SLOWLY BRINGS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTN...WITH THE WESTERN CWFA POSSIBLY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 21Z. A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ANTICIPATE THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO
DISSOLVE ARND 18Z FOR THE FAR WESTERN IL AREAS. SO THE STEADY TREND
IN INCREASING POPS FROM 18Z THRU THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE SPC HAS PLACED THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THRU THIS EVENING...ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL STEADILY PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM
AFTN HEATING THAT ADDTL SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORTUNATELY THE LLVL WINDS APPEARS TO
FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THUS NOT INDICATING ANY STORMS LINGERING
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA LONG.
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND SHUD
QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPR 70S BY MIDDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID
80S THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AFTN HIGHS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE...WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF CLIMB.
THEN FOR TONIGHT CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIP WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPS
FROM COOLING MUCH...SO HAVE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING...MEDIUM.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI MORNING WILL BE SLOWLY
WORKING EAST INTO MID-MISSOURI VALLEY FRI AFTN. EXPECT ONGOING
PRECIP ALONG THE WEAK SFC FEATURE...AND MOIST AXIS THAT WILL STRETCH
OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN EARLY FRI. THE MID-LVL FLOW DOES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH SHUD PROVIDE A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. AT THIS TIME EXPECT LIKELY SHRA/TSRA THRU 15Z...THEN MOISTURE
QUICKLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE BETTER MID-LVL FORCING STILL
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI
MIDDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THEN BY FRI NGT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP LATE FRI
EVENING. TEMPS FRI WILL START MILD AND LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES. THEN TEMPS FRI NGT SHUD RADIATE INTO
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR FRI
NGT...HOWEVER COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADD THIS IN IF THE DRY AIR IS A
BIT MORE SLUGGISH TO ARRIVE.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP
SAT...HOWEVER CURRENTLY SAT SHUD END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THEN A
MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE SAT EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE REGION. OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST IDEAL WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND SUNNY SKIES.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS FRI/SAT...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION FRI...MEDIUM/HIGH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
DISSOLVING THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR
ALASKA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED FEATURE OR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MON. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SOLUTION...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TREND BACK TOWARDS LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* A PERIOD OF SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN MORE
PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SEVERAL
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING AND THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE.
ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS BUT POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE GYY TERMINAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY INCREASING IN SPEED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME MID TEEN
GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...YIELDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...AT
TIMES POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT BRIEFLY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. STORMS LOOK LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE GUSTY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIVING THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVES FROM IOWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY IT WILL STEER A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING THOUGH AND ONLY BRIEFLY TURN
THE WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LAKE DURING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
104 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
15z/10am surface chart shows low pressure over southern Nebraska,
with warm frontal boundary arcing northeastward into the southern
Great Lakes. The low is expected to lift into southern Minnesota
later today, pulling a cold front/dry line into western sections
of Iowa and Missouri by early evening. Convection will develop
along this boundary during the afternoon, then will gradually
spread eastward into Illinois tonight. 13z HRRR suggests a broken
line of thunderstorms may reach the far western KILX CWA by around
6 PM, with storms pushing eastward toward I-55 by mid-evening.
Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing, albeit slightly faster.
Given current capped airmass across much of the warm sector, think
bulk of the convection will remain west of the KILX CWA today.
Going forecast features chance POPs along/west of I-55 late this
afternoon and this trend still looks good, therefore no zone
update is planned at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 104 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Timing of convection remains tricky later today and tonight as
short-term model solutions are not in good agreement. 14z HRRR
features a broken line of thunderstorms coming into the Illinois
River Valley by around 00z, then steadily pushes it eastward to
I-57 by 04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing with
regards to precip onset, but then shows widespread showers/thunder
continuing across the entire area throughout the night into Friday
morning. With 40-45kt 850mb jet currently focused across the
Plains expected to shift eastward into Illinois tonight, think the
wetter NAM may be the way to go. As such, think current convection
approaching the Ozarks will spread northeastward into central
Illinois this evening, then persist overnight as low-level jet
strengthens. Based on NAM forecast soundings and cross-sections,
will introduce predominant rain with VCTS between 01z and 04z.
Ceilings will initially be VFR, but will drop into the MVFR
category after midnight, then remain there through 18z Fri.
Overnight rain/thunder area will gradually shift eastward and exit
the TAF sites between 13z and 16z.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
06z surface map indicated main 998mb low pressure wave developing
over western KS. East of the low broad southerly winds brought Gulf
moisture and 60s dewpoints as far north as IA. Warm sector temps
were still in the lower 70s locally as of 2 AM. Aloft, water vapor
imagery indicated a significant mid level wave over the central
Rockies with several smaller shortwaves ahead of this feature
producing clusters of t-storms from the Plains into the upper
Midwest.
Will introduce a low pop for isolated thunderstorms this
morning mainly west of the IL River, as a couple weak shortwaves
lifting through MO has already sparked showers west of Quincy and
farther south towards the Ozarks. Hi- res models suggest this activity
could affect western areas through 15-16z. Otherwise much of the
day should remain dry with southerly flow producing more
unseasonably warm temps with highs expected in the mid 80s. As the
upper trough progresses east lift increases across the west during
the mid to late afternoon and could see some more isolated to
scattered storms. Strongest convection through late
afternoon/early evening should be tied to lift ahead of the cold
front across IA/MO, and as instability wanes during the evening a
general weakening trend is expected as this pushes into the CWA.
Still enough elevated instability and 25-30 kts of bulk shear for
some organization and isolated stronger cores and a low severe
threat mainly west of I-55 through late evening. Several shortwaves
tracking through overnight in concert with lift ahead of the front
will produce rounds of showers and storms and have raised pops to
categorical with a general half inch QPF.
As the front slows across the CWA early Friday, the potential is
for convection to redevelop mainly across the eastern half during
the afternoon. If skies can clear after morning activity,
instability and better shear profiles suggest severe convection
will be possible with damaging winds and hail. Again much will be
dependent on convective debris/clear out.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
A brief round of surface ridging brings dry and mild conditions
for Saturday. The pattern appears to turn active again on Saturday
night, and continues through early next week as a trough to our
west sets up low pressure over the Plains, and surface boundary
wavers across the Midwest. Have kept pops in the chance category
as uncertainty still remains on where the front sets up, with the
EC still favoring areas farther to the northwest. At any rate
higher pops will be associated with an eventual cold frontal
passage in the Monday (GFS) or Monday night/early Tuesday (EC)
timeframe. While temperatures will remain above normal ahead of
this front, a major pattern change looks to take place through mid
week with significant troughing bringing below normal temps back
to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1107 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1058 AM CDT
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID EVE AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S-LOWER 80S
TEMPS AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ASCENT WITHIN AN ELONGATED DEEP MOIST TONGUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BLOSSOMING IN
COVERAGE OR RAPID PROGRESSION EAST IN OUR AREA...AND EVEN THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER. FORCING WILL IMPROVE IN
TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE MIDWEST...AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES SEEN UPSTREAM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TRANSLATE NEAR THE AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE LOOKED AT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MO...EASTERN IA...AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN IL LOOK TO LIMIT RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY IS THOUGHT TO BE WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVE. IF INDEED THAT IS THE CASE...THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE INTO OUR AREA
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE FACT THE DEEPER SHEAR ARRIVES LATER INTO
THE NIGHT AGAINST THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
320 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY...WITH THE LARGEST SURROUNDING
PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE RING-O-FIRE WAS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH INTO IOWA...THEN TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
ORIENTATION OUTLINES THE 500MB RIDGE...WHICH PLACES NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN SOLIDLY IN THE CAPPED/WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH
THAT BEING SAID...THE TREND HAS BEEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING IN THE
DIRECTION THAT THE RIDGING OVERHEAD MAY SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY THRU
MIDDAY...WHICH COULD FURTHER DELAY THE MORE OPTIMAL INSTABILITY FROM
ARRIVING OR LATER INTO THE AFTN/EVE. IT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO REMAIN DRY THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING.
HI-RES 4KM GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE CONSERVATIVE...AND HOLDS THE ENTIRE
CWFA DRY THRU 00Z. LOCAL ARW8KM TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
AND SLOWLY BRINGS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTN...WITH THE WESTERN CWFA POSSIBLY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 21Z. A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ANTICIPATE THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO
DISSOLVE ARND 18Z FOR THE FAR WESTERN IL AREAS. SO THE STEADY TREND
IN INCREASING POPS FROM 18Z THRU THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE SPC HAS PLACED THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THRU THIS EVENING...ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL STEADILY PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM
AFTN HEATING THAT ADDTL SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORTUNATELY THE LLVL WINDS APPEARS TO
FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THUS NOT INDICATING ANY STORMS LINGERING
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA LONG.
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND SHUD
QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPR 70S BY MIDDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID
80S THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AFTN HIGHS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE...WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF CLIMB.
THEN FOR TONIGHT CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIP WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPS
FROM COOLING MUCH...SO HAVE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING...MEDIUM.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI MORNING WILL BE SLOWLY
WORKING EAST INTO MID-MISSOURI VALLEY FRI AFTN. EXPECT ONGOING
PRECIP ALONG THE WEAK SFC FEATURE...AND MOIST AXIS THAT WILL STRETCH
OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN EARLY FRI. THE MID-LVL FLOW DOES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH SHUD PROVIDE A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. AT THIS TIME EXPECT LIKELY SHRA/TSRA THRU 15Z...THEN MOISTURE
QUICKLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE BETTER MID-LVL FORCING STILL
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI
MIDDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THEN BY FRI NGT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP LATE FRI
EVENING. TEMPS FRI WILL START MILD AND LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES. THEN TEMPS FRI NGT SHUD RADIATE INTO
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR FRI
NGT...HOWEVER COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADD THIS IN IF THE DRY AIR IS A
BIT MORE SLUGGISH TO ARRIVE.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP
SAT...HOWEVER CURRENTLY SAT SHUD END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THEN A
MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE SAT EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE REGION. OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST IDEAL WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND SUNNY SKIES.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS FRI/SAT...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION FRI...MEDIUM/HIGH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
DISSOLVING THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR
ALASKA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED FEATURE OR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MON. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SOLUTION...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TREND BACK TOWARDS LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* A PERIOD OF SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST MOST
OF THIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS SO
HAVE REMAINED DRY WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IL LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AND DURATION HASN/T CHANGED
SO MAINTAINED 08Z TIMING AT ORD/MDW BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT LATE
AND CHANGES TO THIS TIMING ARE LIKELY AS TRENDS EMERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS PRECIP
ARRIVES...LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THIS MORNING...GUSTS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20
KT RANGE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVELS MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD WHERE GUSTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 20 KTS TO MAYBE NEAR 30
KTS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE THAT STRONG WITH THIS
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE REGARDING THOSE SPEEDS/GUSTS ISN/T THAT
HIGH AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT
SLOWLY DIMINISH. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MEDIUM TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW ON TIMING AND DURATION.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
335 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TODAY
REACHING MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
REACHES JAMES BAY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EASTERLY WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF
30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THEN WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS STEADILY DIMINISHING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY...SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
15z/10am surface chart shows low pressure over southern Nebraska,
with warm frontal boundary arcing northeastward into the southern
Great Lakes. The low is expected to lift into southern Minnesota
later today, pulling a cold front/dry line into western sections
of Iowa and Missouri by early evening. Convection will develop
along this boundary during the afternoon, then will gradually
spread eastward into Illinois tonight. 13z HRRR suggests a broken
line of thunderstorms may reach the far western KILX CWA by around
6 PM, with storms pushing eastward toward I-55 by mid-evening.
Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing, albeit slightly faster.
Given current capped airmass across much of the warm sector, think
bulk of the convection will remain west of the KILX CWA today.
Going forecast features chance POPs along/west of I-55 late this
afternoon and this trend still looks good, therefore no zone
update is planned at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
will remain fairly high this morning as the low levels remain
drier than normal. However, some light showers/sprinkles will move
across the western half of the area and effect PIA/BMI/SPI and
possibly DEC. So have put VCSH in those 4 TAFs for about 4hrs this
morning. Then mid clouds around 12kft will prevail the rest of the
morning and afternoon. As the front gets closer and active,
thunderstorms will begin to move into the area. Models have
trended slower with the onset of pcpn and looks like that trend
could continue. However, still some uncertainty, so will have a
VCTS at all sites before more predominate pcpn storms arrive later
in the evening, and then continue during the overnight hours.
Winds will be southerly through the period, with gusts to around
22kts this morning and afternoon. 10-15kts will continue tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
06z surface map indicated main 998mb low pressure wave developing
over western KS. East of the low broad southerly winds brought Gulf
moisture and 60s dewpoints as far north as IA. Warm sector temps
were still in the lower 70s locally as of 2 AM. Aloft, water vapor
imagery indicated a significant mid level wave over the central
Rockies with several smaller shortwaves ahead of this feature
producing clusters of t-storms from the Plains into the upper
Midwest.
Will introduce a low pop for isolated thunderstorms this
morning mainly west of the IL River, as a couple weak shortwaves
lifting through MO has already sparked showers west of Quincy and
farther south towards the Ozarks. Hi- res models suggest this activity
could affect western areas through 15-16z. Otherwise much of the
day should remain dry with southerly flow producing more
unseasonably warm temps with highs expected in the mid 80s. As the
upper trough progresses east lift increases across the west during
the mid to late afternoon and could see some more isolated to
scattered storms. Strongest convection through late
afternoon/early evening should be tied to lift ahead of the cold
front across IA/MO, and as instability wanes during the evening a
general weakening trend is expected as this pushes into the CWA.
Still enough elevated instability and 25-30 kts of bulk shear for
some organization and isolated stronger cores and a low severe
threat mainly west of I-55 through late evening. Several shortwaves
tracking through overnight in concert with lift ahead of the front
will produce rounds of showers and storms and have raised pops to
categorical with a general half inch QPF.
As the front slows across the CWA early Friday, the potential is
for convection to redevelop mainly across the eastern half during
the afternoon. If skies can clear after morning activity,
instability and better shear profiles suggest severe convection
will be possible with damaging winds and hail. Again much will be
dependent on convective debris/clear out.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
A brief round of surface ridging brings dry and mild conditions
for Saturday. The pattern appears to turn active again on Saturday
night, and continues through early next week as a trough to our
west sets up low pressure over the Plains, and surface boundary
wavers across the Midwest. Have kept pops in the chance category
as uncertainty still remains on where the front sets up, with the
EC still favoring areas farther to the northwest. At any rate
higher pops will be associated with an eventual cold frontal
passage in the Monday (GFS) or Monday night/early Tuesday (EC)
timeframe. While temperatures will remain above normal ahead of
this front, a major pattern change looks to take place through mid
week with significant troughing bringing below normal temps back
to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND 80S UNTIL A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE WEAKENING WAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLEARING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE.
TEMPS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE 60S AS OF 02Z.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT...
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT
TAKING MOST OF THE NIGHT TO SAG INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. 00Z NAM
AND CURRENT HRRR HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND MAINLY AFTER 07-08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO 20-30 FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SPAWNED FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THUS...WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING BACK HIGH CHANCES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THAT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. SO...KEPT POPS SUNDAY...ALBEIT LOW POPS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BLEND OF COOLER 12Z NAM AND WARMER 12Z GFS LOOKS OK FOR THE SHORT
TERM AND MATCHES WELL WITH 12Z ALLBLEND. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...AND LATEST INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DRY SLOT ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT TIMING BECOMES INCONSISTENT IN MODELS AT THAT
POINT. THE EURO BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLIER THAN THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST INITIALIZATION FAVORS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP INITIALIZATION FORECAST UNTIL MODELS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 60S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING VARIABILITY ABOUT RAIN/THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A COUPLE ARE SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OUT AND
RAIN OR POSSIBLY THUNDER ALONG AN EAST-WEST AREA THAT WOULD INCLUDE
ALL SITES BUT KLAF. PUT A TEMPO SHOWER IN AT KHUF AND KIND AND PUT A
PREVAILING SHOWER IN AT KBMG STARTING AFTER 5-6Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH THIS SO INCLUDED THEM AS WELL.
ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 13Z AND
THEN VFR FOR THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND 80S UNTIL A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE WEAKENING WAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLEARING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE.
TEMPS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE 60S AS OF 02Z.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT...
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT
TAKING MOST OF THE NIGHT TO SAG INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. 00Z NAM
AND CURRENT HRRR HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND MAINLY AFTER 07-08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO 20-30 FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SPAWNED FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THUS...WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING BACK HIGH CHANCES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THAT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. SO...KEPT POPS SUNDAY...ALBEIT LOW POPS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BLEND OF COOLER 12Z NAM AND WARMER 12Z GFS LOOKS OK FOR THE SHORT
TERM AND MATCHES WELL WITH 12Z ALLBLEND. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...AND LATEST INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DRY SLOT ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT TIMING BECOMES INCONSISTENT IN MODELS AT THAT
POINT. THE EURO BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLIER THAN THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST INITIALIZATION FAVORS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP INITIALIZATION FORECAST UNTIL MODELS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 60S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE VCTS AT ALL BUT KLAF...AND THERE ONLY CONTINUED
FOR ANOTHER HALF HOUR WITH STORMS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THERE.
ALSO DROPPED WIND GUSTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING VARIABILITY ABOUT RAIN/THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A COUPLE ARE SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OUT AND
RAIN OR POSSIBLY THUNDER ALONG AN EAST-WEST AREA THAT WOULD INCLUDE
ALL SITES BUT KLAF. PUT A TEMPO SHOWER IN AT KHUF AND KIND AND PUT A
PREVAILING SHOWER IN AT KBMG STARTING AFTER 5-6Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH THIS SO INCLUDED THEM AS WELL.
ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 13Z AND
THEN VFR FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THEN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA NOW. HOPWRF AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS OUR WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISO SEVERE POSSIBLE. MAY LATER GO CAT POPS ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR OF MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE...WAITING TO SEE HOW LONG
THEY HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN SOME REMAINING CAP ALOFT./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY EARLY/MID EVENING. NAM TRIES TO
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND NOSE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MESO PARAMETERS SUGGEST DECENT
CAPE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO PAGE HAVE DECENT CINH IN PLACE
AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA AS LLJ KICKS IN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z-09Z WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM ERN NE/SE SD LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. WITH THE CWA
IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AROUND 60...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
ONLY DROPPING INTO 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE EITHER AROUND MON
OR TUE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOMORROW HOWEVER WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF IA
AT ONSET OF PERIOD /12Z/ ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BUT
CONVECTION MAY BE BRUSHING PORTIONS OF NW IA AS WELL. LOBE OF WEAKER
FORCING WILL THEN LIFT INTO IA 18Z-00Z COINCIDENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET AND AT FIRST GLANCE THIS SHOULD HELP OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONDUCIVE HOWEVER. MLCIN
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME THAT THE MLCAPE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
MN. THUS THE WINDOW WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COUPLED
WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SMALL. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONDITIONAL AND CERTAINLY THERE WITH
DEEP SHEAR PUSHING 50KTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED CLOSER TO THE FRONT AXIS
THAN LINE NORMAL SO CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR
RATHER THAN DISCRETE AND IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVEN
DIMINISHED LARGE SCALE FORCING AS IT BEGINS TO SPLIT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD INTO FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRI BEFORE A RETURN
TO MORE PRECIP CHANCES. ALTHOUGH GREENNESS TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIP
MAY REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT...SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT DEEP MIXING AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS FRIDAY THAT COULD ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS.
RELATIVELY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF HOLDING FRONT BACK INTO SERN IA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO A PROLONGER PERIOD WITH POPS FAVORING
THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATER AS WELL. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDS OUR POPS BY TUE
HOWEVER SO THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. PERSISTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CONUS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
TEMP EXTREMES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ESSENTIALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AFFECTING
KFOD...KMCW...AND KALO TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A BREAK
PRIOR TO NEXT ROUND BEGINNING BETWEEN 16-18Z CENTRAL/WEST AND
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH DAY BY 23-00Z WITH KOTM POSSIBLY SEEING
ADDTIONAL THUNDER AFT 00 THROUGH 04Z. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT TIMED OUT
DAYTIME THUNDER OTHER THAN VCTS DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS. SOUTH
WINDS REMAIN BRISK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH WINDS THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST. AGAIN...SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY FROM 16Z THROUGH 04Z FROM
WEST TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT PACKAGE WILL BETTER DEFINE COVERAGE/TIMING
OF CONVECTION. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
955 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a zonal flow
aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough is pushing southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near
the surface...a weak lee side trough of low pressure is set up along
the Colorado and Kansas border. Drier air remains in place across
the area with surface dewpoints in the 30s(F) across central and
much of southwest Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
The upper level jet is progged to continue moving east this
afternoon with western Kansas coming under the left exit region of
upper jet this evening. Model soundings from the NAM and RUC13 show
fairly deep mixing with some small elevated CAPE developing along
the Colorado border by late this afternoon. The last few runs of the
HRRR have been consistent in showing isolated showers developing
along the Colorado border and moving into west central and southwest
Kansas for a few hours this evening. Will add this to the grids for
this evening.
As the weak shortwave moves over late tonight, another weak surge of
high pressure will push into southwest Kansas late tonight and early
Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s over west
central Kansas where dewpoints will be lower and winds could go
light for a few hours around sunrise. Low temperatures in south
central Kansas may only drop into the mid 50s where dewpoints are
higher.
During the day Saturday, mid level flow over the central Plains
gradually becomes southwesterly with time as an upper level
shortwave trough digs into the western states. This will result in
surface cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado during the afternoon.
Areas of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border should see high
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with
southerly winds increasing during the day. This could result in
critical fire weather conditions over far southwest Kansas in the
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
The first issue during this period will be Saturday night. Rich
gulf moisture is not too far southeast, meaning it`s as close as
extreme southeast Oklahoma and north Texas. With the vigorous jet
and upper level anomaly digging into the Rockies, the surface
response will be rapidly falling pressure in the lee of the
Rockies. The surface low should deepen in southeast Colorado.
Boundary layer winds will become east to southeast and the
aforementioned rich moisture will begin stream northwest towards
my forecast area. Warm frontogenesis will take place and this will
advance rapidly north by Saturday night. I see a small opportunity
of elevated and nocturnal convection developing along the nose of
the moisture surge across my far southeast area after dark
Saturday night. Confidence is not high though.
Sunday will be the "warm" day in advance of a strong surge of cold
air that will be sweeping into the plains as the digging system
into the Rockies lifts out into the plains. There should be a
rather tight gradient of temperatures across my area and will
adjust the grids accordingly. With the rich gulf moisture, strong
uvv and surface convergence along the front the chance for
thunderstorms will be high late Sunday and Sunday evening. Behind
the front there should be continued lift and with strong cold air
advection there should be low stratus and at least drizzle, if not
light rain. Monday should be a rather raw day with clouds,
blustery winds and some precipitation. My forecast highs may be a
little optimistic but the trend is to definitely cooler
temperatures.
Beyond Monday, the flow will be northwest flow aloft with perhaps
another minor wave sliding southeast which might promote showers
about mid week. Overall temperatures will be below normal seasonal
normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail with a few mid level clouds across
the HYS terminal over the next couple of hours. Winds will
generally be from the south overnight shifting to the northwest
behind a cold front around sunrise tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 85 55 81 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 46 83 52 77 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 47 88 53 78 / 10 0 0 10
LBL 48 89 55 82 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 47 82 55 77 / 0 0 0 10
P28 54 88 63 91 / 0 0 0 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hutton
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
624 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
The upper level jet is progged to continue moving east this
afternoon with western Kansas coming under the left exit region of
upper jet this evening. Model soundings from the NAM and RUC13 show
fairly deep mixing with some small elevated CAPE developing along
the Colorado border by late this afternoon. The last few runs of the
HRRR have been consistent in showing isolated showers developing
along the Colorado border and moving into west central and southwest
Kansas for a few hours this evening. Will add this to the grids for
this evening.
As the weak shortwave moves over late tonight, another weak surge of
high pressure will push into southwest Kansas late tonight and early
Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s over west
central Kansas where dewpoints will be lower and winds could go
light for a few hours around sunrise. Low temperatures in south
central Kansas may only drop into the mid 50s where dewpoints are
higher.
During the day Saturday, mid level flow over the central Plains
gradually becomes southwesterly with time as an upper level
shortwave trough digs into the western states. This will result in
surface cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado during the afternoon.
Areas of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border should see high
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with
southerly winds increasing during the day. This could result in
critical fire weather conditions over far southwest Kansas in the
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
The first issue during this period will be Saturday night. Rich
gulf moisture is not too far southeast, meaning it`s as close as
extreme southeast Oklahoma and north Texas. With the vigorous jet
and upper level anomaly digging into the Rockies, the surface
response will be rapidly falling pressure in the lee of the
Rockies. The surface low should deepen in southeast Colorado.
Boundary layer winds will become east to southeast and the
aforementioned rich moisture will begin stream northwest towards
my forecast area. Warm frontogenesis will take place and this will
advance rapidly north by Saturday night. I see a small opportunity
of elevated and nocturnal convection developing along the nose of
the moisture surge across my far southeast area after dark
Saturday night. Confidence is not high though.
Sunday will be the "warm" day in advance of a strong surge of cold
air that will be sweeping into the plains as the digging system
into the Rockies lifts out into the plains. There should be a
rather tight gradient of temperatures across my area and will
adjust the grids accordingly. With the rich gulf moisture, strong
uvv and surface convergence along the front the chance for
thunderstorms will be high late Sunday and Sunday evening. Behind
the front there should be continued lift and with strong cold air advection there
should be low stratus and at least drizzle, if not light rain.
Monday should be a rather raw day with clouds, blustery winds and
some precipitation. My forecast highs may be a little optimistic
but the trend is to definitely cooler temperatures.
Beyond Monday, the flow will be northwest flow aloft with perhaps
another minor wave sliding southeast which might promote showers
about mid week. Overall temperatures will be below normal seasonal
normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail with a few mid level clouds across
the HYS terminal over the next couple of hours. Winds will
generally be from the south overnight shifting to the northwest
behind a cold front around sunrise tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 85 57 81 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 46 83 51 77 / 10 0 10 10
EHA 47 88 47 78 / 10 0 0 10
LBL 48 89 52 82 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 47 82 56 77 / 0 0 10 10
P28 54 89 68 91 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hutton
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...updated short term...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
An upper trough was fast approaching the region from the west with
-20 deg C 500 mb temperatures extending into the southern Rockies.
At the surface, a pacific cold front had pushed through the area
into east central Kansas and west central Oklahoma by early
afternoon. A surface dryline extended just ahead of the surface
front in west central Oklahoma. Northwest winds int he 10 to 20 knot
range ushered in cooler surface air, relegating surface heating to
the 60`s by mid afternoon from Hays to Garden city and Syracuse.
Farther east, Low 60`s dew points near Pratt and Medicine Lodge was
scoured out by the cold front leaving dew points in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Chances are greatest that most of the forecast area remains dry
tonight. The front has shifted far enough east that the HRRR model
solutions appear more believable than the NAM model`s solution of a
retreating dryline returning moisture and allowing moist deep
convection. The far west central Kansas counties such as Hamilton
and Stanton could see showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
evening associated with convective development over eastern
Colorado. Of the various HiRes models, the NMM cores suggest a PV
anomaly significant enough to produce showers on the backside of the
upper jet, mainly late tonight and overnight. Instability will be
minimal however and probabilities have been kept very low for the
overnight episode. Temperatures overnight should fall into the low 50s
and seen some 40s farther west where clearing is likely by 12
UTC.
Weak westerly downslope surface winds will develop on Friday as
surface high pressure spreads eastward across southeast Kansas
during the afternoon. Other than mid level clouds, mostly sunny
conditions should prevail based on model layer RH fields. The
downslope flow will promote adiabatic warming resulting in boundary
layer warm advection. Models are strongly aligned for highs in the
mid to upper 70s with only bias corrected solutions creating warmer
highs in the low 80s in the far southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
The medium range models continue to show a strong upper level
shortwave digging into the western states this weekend and moving
out into the plains by early next week. The ECMWF, GEM and UKMET
models have all been similar and tend to be slower and deeper with
this wave. The GFS has been more open and progressive with this wave
for several runs. However, it is showing a tendency in its
operational run...as well as some of the ensemble members...to be a
little slower and deeper.
Upper level westerly flow over the central High Plains on Friday
will gradually become more southwesterly by Saturday night as the
upper wave digs into the Intermountain West. As the upper wave
approaches on Sunday, a frontal boundary should moves southward into
western Kansas with a surface low pressure system developing along
the front. There are some model differences in the position of this
front during the day Sunday. The faster GFS has it through all of
western Kansas by later in the afternoon while the other models keep
it farther west. This will have significant impacts on daytime high
temperatures as well as where the best chance for thunderstorms will
be. Given the model tendencies, will keep the front farther west
with a fairly significant temperature gradient across southwest and
south central Kansas. The models show 60 degree dewpoints spreading
northward into the central Plains ahead of this front. We could see
an outbreak of severe storms along the front during the later
afternoon and early evening hours as stronger southwesterly flow
aloft moves into western Kansas.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday as the
upper trough continues to move out into the Plains but we should be
drying out by Monday night and Tuesday as the upper wave continues
east. Temperatures in Monday-Wednesday time period will be fairly
cool given the 850 millibar temperatures in the single digits.
Temperatures should moderate through the remainder of the extended
period as upper level heights build over the western and central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Dry conditions (VFR category) and northwest surface winds will
persist through the afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase by
late afternoon as a cold pool aloft advances toward the region,
however based will be generally above 10kft based on HRRR model
soundings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 77 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 43 78 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 44 79 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 45 80 48 86 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 43 78 48 80 / 20 10 0 0
P28 50 78 53 86 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
moving eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains
today setting up another round of thunderstorm development across
eastern and portions of central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
As the upper level system edges out of the Rockies, the surface low
across northwest Kansas is expected to lift northeastward into
Nebraska while and attendant dryline pushes east out of southwest
Kansas into central Kansas. With strong dynamic support aloft still
in place across the Central Plains, thunderstorms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon as it advances
across central Kansas. Surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) and
steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will provide enough
instability to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
into the evening hours. However, considering the placement of the
dryline, not to mention an advancing cold front pushing into western
Kansas Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to be confined
to south central Kansas and east. A few high based showers/storms
may be possible across southwest Kansas Thursday evening as colder
air begins to advect southward into the area steepening lapse
rates aloft while another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejects out
of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front begins pushing
through western Kansas this afternoon. Colder air surging southward
behind the front will lower H85 temperatures to the lower to mid
teens(C) across west central Kansas this afternoon to near 20C ahead
of the front across south central Kansas. Look for highs up into the
70s(F) this afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) still possible
across south central Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 40s(F)
tonight as much cooler air spills southward into western Kansas
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
The medium range models continue to show a strong upper level
shortwave digging into the western states this weekend and moving
out into the plains by early next week. The ECMWF, GEM and UKMET
models have all been similar and tend to be slower and deeper with
this wave. The GFS has been more open and progressive with this wave
for several runs. However, it is showing a tendency in its
operational run...as well as some of the ensemble members...to be a
little slower and deeper.
Upper level westerly flow over the central High Plains on Friday
will gradually become more southwesterly by Saturday night as the
upper wave digs into the Intermountain West. As the upper wave
approaches on Sunday, a frontal boundary should moves southward into
western Kansas with a surface low pressure system developing along
the front. There are some model differences in the position of this
front during the day Sunday. The faster GFS has it through all of
western Kansas by later in the afternoon while the other models keep
it farther west. This will have significant impacts on daytime high
temperatures as well as where the best chance for thunderstorms will
be. Given the model tendencies, will keep the front farther west
with a fairly significant temperature gradient across southwest and
south central Kansas. The models show 60 degree dewpoints spreading
northward into the central Plains ahead of this front. We could see
an outbreak of severe storms along the front during the later
afternoon and early evening hours as stronger southwesterly flow
aloft moves into western Kansas.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday as the
upper trough continues to move out into the Plains but we should be
drying out by Monday night and Tuesday as the upper wave continues
east. Temperatures in Monday-Wednesday time period will be fairly
cool given the 850 millibar temperatures in the single digits.
Temperatures should moderate through the remainder of the extended
period as upper level heights build over the western and central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Dry conditions (VFR category) and northwest surface winds will
persist through the afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase by
late afternoon as a cold pool aloft advances toward the region,
however based will be generally above 10kft based on HRRR model
soundings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 77 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 43 78 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 44 79 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 45 80 48 86 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 43 78 48 80 / 20 10 0 0
P28 50 78 53 86 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
moving eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains
today setting up another round of thunderstorm development across
eastern and portions of central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
As the upper level system edges out of the Rockies, the surface low
across northwest Kansas is expected to lift northeastward into
Nebraska while and attendant dryline pushes east out of southwest
Kansas into central Kansas. With strong dynamic support aloft still
in place across the Central Plains, thunderstorms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon as it advances
across central Kansas. Surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) and
steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will provide enough
instability to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
into the evening hours. However, considering the placement of the
dryline, not to mention an advancing cold front pushing into western
Kansas Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to be confined
to south central Kansas and east. A few high based showers/storms
may be possible across southwest Kansas Thursday evening as colder
air begins to advect southward into the area steepening lapse
rates aloft while another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejects out
of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front begins pushing
through western Kansas this afternoon. Colder air surging southward
behind the front will lower H85 temperatures to the lower to mid
teens(C) across west central Kansas this afternoon to near 20C ahead
of the front across south central Kansas. Look for highs up into the
70s(F) this afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) still possible
across south central Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 40s(F)
tonight as much cooler air spills southward into western Kansas
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
As an upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley on
Friday the winds will back more to the west which will improve
downslope flow over the central high plains late week/early this
weekend. This continues to support a brief warming trend Friday
and Saturday, however a cold front moving across western Kansas
late Saturday will put an end to this warming trend. Precipitation
chances with the cold front on Saturday still appears to be
confined to northern Kansas based on location of the left exit
region of an upper level jet Saturday and warming 700mb
temperatures across southwest Kansas. Will therefore keep the
forecast for Saturday precipitation free given that the better
forcing will occur north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Another
area for evening convection Saturday will be along a dryline that
both the ECMWF and GFS place in central Kansas. At this time this
area convection is still forecast to be east of Stafford, Pratt,
and the Medicine lodge area.
By early Sunday morning the surface cold front will extend from
southeast Colorado into the south central Kansas based on the GFS
and ECMWF. This front will then remain nearly stationary through
Sunday night as the next upper level storm system approaches the
Central Rockies from the west. Warm air advection and low level
moisture convergence will improve along this surface boundary
Sunday afternoon and based on the late day instability the area
favorable for late day convection will be mainly across south
central Kansas. Precipitation will also be possible late Sunday
across northwest Kansas near a mid level baroclinic zone given
improving 700mb moisture and frontogenesis ahead of the upper
level trough. This area of improving precipitation chances is then
expected to spread southeast Sunday night into early Monday as
this mid level baroclinic zone crosses western Kansas and the
upper level trough exits the Rockies and Central High Plains.
As this next upper level trough moves east towards the Mid
Mississippi Valley late Monday the precipitation chances will end
from west to east. An area of high pressure at the surface will
also build across Kansas Monday night into Tuesday. Given clearing
skies and where the lighter winds will be early Tuesday morning
will favor trending the lows for Monday night across western
Kansas down some from the latest CRExtendFcst_Init.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Dry conditions (VFR category) and northwet surface winds will
persist through the afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase by
late afternoon as a cold pool aloft advances toward the region,
however based will be generally above 10kft based on HRRR model
soundings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 76 49 82 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 41 77 49 80 / 20 0 0 10
EHA 42 79 48 84 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 43 79 50 84 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 40 76 50 79 / 20 10 10 10
P28 48 77 52 85 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE...RAISING POPS IN THE WEST AND EXTENDING MENTION FURTHER
EAST. ALSO ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX WORDING TO EASTERN COLORADO ZONE AS
REPORT FROM AKRON INDICATING PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND YUMA
WEB CAM SHOWING RAIN/SNOW MIX. VERY STRONG CAA ON BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND LOOKS LIKE MORNING LOWS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 32F. STILL EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO MELT ON WARM
GROUND...THOUGH ELEVATED SURFACES COULD SEE A DUSTING THROUGH
ABOUT 8AM MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS WITH
CIGS 1200-2500FT THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULDNT RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS/VIRGA
AND IFR CONDITIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VCSH MENTION AT KGLD...THINK
OVERALL CHANCES OF BOTH PRECIP AND IFR CIGS ARE DECREASING BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
moving eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains
today setting up another round of thunderstorm development across
eastern and portions of central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
As the upper level system edges out of the Rockies, the surface low
across northwest Kansas is expected to lift northeastward into
Nebraska while and attendant dryline pushes east out of southwest
Kansas into central Kansas. With strong dynamic support aloft still
in place across the Central Plains, thunderstorms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon as it advances
across central Kansas. Surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) and
steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will provide enough
instability to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
into the evening hours. However, considering the placement of the
dryline, not to mention an advancing cold front pushing into western
Kansas Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to be confined
to south central Kansas and east. A few high based showers/storms
may be possible across southwest Kansas Thursday evening as colder
air begins to advect southward into the area steepening lapse
rates aloft while another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejects out
of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front begins pushing
through western Kansas this afternoon. Colder air surging southward
behind the front will lower H85 temperatures to the lower to mid
teens(C) across west central Kansas this afternoon to near 20C ahead
of the front across south central Kansas. Look for highs up into the
70s(F) this afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) still possible
across south central Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 40s(F)
tonight as much cooler air spills southward into western Kansas
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
As an upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley on
Friday the winds will back more to the west which will improve
downslope flow over the central high plains late week/early this
weekend. This continues to support a brief warming trend Friday
and Saturday, however a cold front moving across western Kansas
late Saturday will put an end to this warming trend. Precipitation
chances with the cold front on Saturday still appears to be
confined to northern Kansas based on location of the left exit
region of an upper level jet Saturday and warming 700mb
temperatures across southwest Kansas. Will therefore keep the
forecast for Saturday precipitation free given that the better
forcing will occur north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Another
area for evening convection Saturday will be along a dryline that
both the ECMWF and GFS place in central Kansas. At this time this
area convection is still forecast to be east of Stafford, Pratt,
and the Medicine lodge area.
By early Sunday morning the surface cold front will extend from
southeast Colorado into the south central Kansas based on the GFS
and ECMWF. This front will then remain nearly stationary through
Sunday night as the next upper level storm system approaches the
Central Rockies from the west. Warm air advection and low level
moisture convergence will improve along this surface boundary
Sunday afternoon and based on the late day instability the area
favorable for late day convection will be mainly across south
central Kansas. Precipitation will also be possible late Sunday
across northwest Kansas near a mid level baroclinic zone given
improving 700mb moisture and frontogenesis ahead of the upper
level trough. This area of improving precipitation chances is then
expected to spread southeast Sunday night into early Monday as
this mid level baroclinic zone crosses western Kansas and the
upper level trough exits the Rockies and Central High Plains.
As this next upper level trough moves east towards the Mid
Mississippi Valley late Monday the precipitation chances will end
from west to east. An area of high pressure at the surface will
also build across Kansas Monday night into Tuesday. Given clearing
skies and where the lighter winds will be early Tuesday morning
will favor trending the lows for Monday night across western
Kansas down some from the latest CRExtendFcst_Init.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM BUFR soundings indicating that the moisture preceding an
upper level trough that is currently forecast to cross western
Kansas late today will be at or above the 800mb levels. As a
result VFR conditions are expected. A dryline will cross southwest
Kansas this morning which will result in southwesterly winds
becoming west/northwest. NAM and HRRR suggests this wind shift
will occur at GCK between 12 and 15z, DDC around 15z, and HYS
between 15 and 18z. As northwest winds develop the wind speeds
will increase to near 20 knots. Gusty northwest winds will
decrease to 10 knots or less towards sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 43 76 49 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 72 41 77 49 / 10 20 0 0
EHA 73 42 79 48 / 10 20 0 0
LBL 76 43 79 50 / 10 20 0 0
HYS 72 40 76 50 / 10 20 10 10
P28 82 48 77 52 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
417 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE...RAISING POPS IN THE WEST AND EXTENDING MENTION FURTHER
EAST. ALSO ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX WORDING TO EASTERN COLORADO ZONE AS
REPORT FROM AKRON INDICATING PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND YUMA
WEB CAM SHOWING RAIN/SNOW MIX. VERY STRONG CAA ON BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND LOOKS LIKE MORNING LOWS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 32F. STILL EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO MELT ON WARM
GROUND...THOUGH ELEVATED SURFACES COULD SEE A DUSTING THROUGH
ABOUT 8AM MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS THAT WILL BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN ABOUT 09-16Z AT GLD AND FROM ABOUT
12Z-20Z AT MCK. AFTER THOSE TIMES...CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 03Z THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Very high based showers and a few thunderstorms continue this
morning, and expect this to slowly subside through the early
afternoon hours with somewhat drier 700-850mb air working in from
the west and modest Q-vector convergence slides through. Surface
low over northwest Kansas early this morning should rotate
northeast into northwest Iowa by late afternoon as main upper
trough moves likewise from central Colorado, with trailing cold
front entering northeast Kansas in the mid afternoon. Even with
high clouds perhaps staying rather persistent, pre-frontal airmass
should still destabilize to a leave little convective inhibition
from deep southwest flow. Convergence along deep frontal boundary
should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
and move quickly northeast with strong mid-upper winds. Low level
shear in this setup is not strong but still enough CAPE/shear
combination for severe weather. Mid-level lapse rates slightly
weaker than Wednesday afternoon/evening but large hail still quite
possible. Slow movement of boundary and its orientation to storm
motions could allow a storm to ride the boundary for increased
low-level helicity and at least a minor tornado potential.
CAPE/shear slowly weaken through the overnight hours but synoptic
boundary still moves rather slow with secondary upper wave moving
east across southern Kansas bringing cooler air aloft with it for
some potential for persistent convection in east central Kansas,
mainly south of I-35 through the night. Effective front via
outflow for earlier storms could push heaviest convection to the
southeast however.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Friday-Saturday Night: Passing shortwave on Friday morning ushers
precipitation eastward and cooler temperatures in its wake. Near
normal highs in the middle 70s with lows in the 50s. Temperatures
climb closer toward 80 on Saturday, however have thunderstorm
chances mainly in the afternoon as return flow is quick to bring
instability back over the eastern portions of the area. As next
shortwave passes to the north near peak heating, could bring
enough associated lift to generate another chance for isolated
severe storms, with CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg, generally
east of Manhattan. Chances could be focused more toward the south
along tightening warm front, but have slight chances across the
east for now. Overnight precipitation chances are due to warm
front lifting back northward over the forecast area, with LLJ
generating precip along and north of the front as it does so.
Enough elevated CAPE north of the incoming cap would leave hail
as any overnight severe hazard.
Sunday/Monday: By the noon hour on Sunday, considerable
instability returns across the area, focused once again moreso
over the eastern half as the surface low/inverted trof lies SW/NE
across the CWA. Triple point appears to set up in central to south
central Kansas around mid day, with differing speeds in the models
as to how fast the main front pushes across the cwa. GFS is nearly
through the area by 0z while EC is slower and across NC Kansas.
Bulk shear vectors running 45-55kts and steep lapse rates coupled
with the strong instability would make hail and wind a threat,
although wind profiles right along the front could be favorable
for tornadoes. Lifting mechanism to get storms going will be the
main question, as trof still on approach by late day and will rely
on upper difluence, or focus along the boundaries themselves to
get storms to develop. Left pops into overnight hours on the
higher side mainly given differences in model runs and trends
favoring the slower EC - which could linger stronger storms into
late Sunday early Monday. Either solution would have activity
ending or decreasing by late Monday afternoon/evening and have
trended grids as such.
Tuesday and Wednesday come in cooler and mainly dry as northwest
upper flow prevails across the plains behind the longwave trof
over the Ohio valley. Weak impulses in the flow could bring
more chances for precip late in the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Main concerns are model progs of MVFR cigs developing this morning
and timing TS redevelopment. Models do not show much additional
advection of SFC dewpoints and the deeper low level moisture
appears to be in south TX. because of this am still a little
skeptical for MVFR CIGS. Have kept a VFR forecast for now but
confidence is not great since the RAP has started to saturate the
boundary layer. Think TS should redevelop by the early afternoon
and initially be scattered in nature. Timing storms into the
terminals remains a low confidence forecast so will just carry a
VCTS at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS THAT WILL BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN ABOUT 09-16Z AT GLD AND FROM ABOUT
12Z-20Z AT MCK. AFTER THOSE TIMES...CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 03Z THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1210 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Tonight through Thursday ...
Water vapor imagery showed the deep mid-level trough stretched
across the western U.S. with southwesterly flow aloft over the
Central Plains. At the surface, low pressure stretched across
southwest to north central Kansas with the dryline nearly bisecting
the state from north to south at 20z. With a tight pressure gradient
in place across much of the region, south-southwesterly winds were
gusting upwards of 25-35mph this afternoon, which aided in decent
WAA as well as moisture advection across eastern Kansas with
dewpoints reaching into the lower to middle 60s. It was another mild
day across the region as high temperatures rose into the upper
80s/low 90s across eastern Kansas and into the mid/upper 90s over
north central Kansas. The warmest conditions across north central
Kansas were co-located with the drier conditions as dewpoints
plunged as low as into the middle 30s, resulting in RH values
dropping into the teens. These dry conditions combined with the
breezy winds will keep very high fire danger concerns in place
through early this evening, so a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
through 8pm across portions of north central Kansas.
Visible satellite this afternoon showed a few storms popping up
across northern Texas/southern Oklahoma along the dryline. The last
few runs of the HRRR/RAP have shown good run-to-run consistency as
well as good agreement with each other regarding the current
mid-afternoon development and additional northward development of
showers and thunderstorms along this dryline this evening. This
initial thunderstorm development looks to be supported by a
mid-level shortwave, and as this wave tracks northward into the area
this evening it will help to provide enhanced lift over the region.
Model soundings show the cap eroding away this afternoon across the
central portions of the forecast area (roughly from Council Grove
northward toward Manhattan), with short-range models showing this
region being well-primed for scattered thunderstorm development,
beginning between 22z-00z. MLCAPE values in this region could be
upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg with upwards of 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk
shear. As a result, the stronger storms may be capable of producing
large hail and possibly some stronger wind gusts later this evening
as the LLJ increases over the region. This activity should diminish
overnight with the loss of diurnal heating. Southerly winds will
remain breezy overnight due to the aforementioned increasing LLJ, so
this strong southerly flow combined with increasing mid-level cloud
cover will keep low temperatures tonight mild in the middle 60s west
to upper 60s/near 70 east.
There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms once again
on Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Central Plains,
finally pushing the cold front associated with this system eastward
across the area by Thursday night. 12z model runs have come into
better agreement with the timing of this frontal passage and the
eastward progression of the dryline through the day. Latest model
trends show any morning precipitation to be focused across far
eastern Kansas, but there are discrepancies with the coverage of
this activity. Feel that this activity should be fairly limited,
which would lead to more time for the environment to recover to
support redevelopment of thunderstorms along the dryline during the
afternoon hours. While there are still some minor discrepancies with
the exact placement of the dryline by the afternoon, thunderstorm
initiation looks to occur somewhere between Abilene and Manhattan
and between 18z-21z. The cap looks to quickly weaken during the
early/mid afternoon hours with upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
45-55kts of 0-6km bulk shear. While there certainly looks to be
decent shear in place, it looks to be fairly unidirectional. The
main threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and
damaging winds, but cannot rule out the potential for a few isolated
tornadoes. The increasing mid-level cloud cover will limit the
daytime heating with Thursday highs likely reaching into the middle
70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Extended focus will be on impacts of first system Thursday night
and second system over the weekend.
Thurs Night...ongoing convection should become focused across east
central Kansas as convergence is maximized along the north side of
a secondary surface low and boundary so will keep high precip chcs across
that area. Much cooler and drier air will arrive for Friday with
highs back toward average in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the 40s.
The next longwave trough will begin to take shape across the
Rockies by Saturday with sfc low pressure forecast to develop
across southeast Colorado. Moisture advection along and north of
the developing warm front could result in SCT convection so will
leave low pops on Sat. Better chances for showers and t-storms
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc low sags into
western OK and the associated sfc front also sags south. It would
appear that given moisture and shear that Sunday could bring a
risk for severe storms but that is dependent on details of front
position so confidence in severe risk Sunday is low at the moment.
Overall confidence in weather trends is higher by Monday so look for a
wet and colder start to the next work week with precip chcs decreasing
Monday night and ending by Tuesday. Temps next week should remain
near Average of 70 to 75.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Main concerns are model progs of MVFR cigs developing this morning
and timing TS redevelopment. Models do not show much additional
advection of SFC dewpoints and the deeper low level moisture
appears to be in south TX. because of this am still a little
skeptical for MVFR CIGS. Have kept a VFR forecast for now but
confidence is not great since the RAP has started to saturate the
boundary layer. Think TS should redevelop by the early afternoon
and initially be scattered in nature. Timing storms into the
terminals remains a low confidence forecast so will just carry a
VCTS at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1141 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
Did an update to increase POPs west of I-65 overnight. Models
aren`t handling this evening`s convection very well. Storms
continue to re-generate from SE Missouri through south
Indiana/central KY. This is courtesy of multiple waves riding
northeast along the south side of an upper trough to our north. The
associate sfc boundary still sits well to our west over central
MO/IL. Therefore, feel scattered shower/storms will continue
overnight. A few high-res models and the 18Z/0Z NAM runs indicate a
more solid area of showers/storms may form in our area (mainly over
KY) late tonight into tomorrow morning. Will continue 60-70% POPs
during that time frame. Think that storms will be mostly sub-severe
overnight in an elevated environment. Pea size hail and perhaps a
wind gust up to 40 mph may be possible in the strongest storms.
Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts. Low temps will be in the
lower 60s overnight.
Issued at 810 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
Did a quick update to better time POPs as the line of showers and
storms moves through the region. The line has become pretty solid
as far as coverage goes, but overall strength of storms has
declined. The strongest storms will likely contain 35 to 45 mph
wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. However, the convection is
moving into a more unfavorable environment so do expect storms to
continue to decrease in strength as the evening wears on. This
round of storms should pass through the area by midnight. We`ll see
a break in convection with another round looking likely late tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
In the near term, rainfall from this morning continues to move NE
but is still hanging in there over east-central KY. The rain will
exit our forecast area in the next 1-2 hrs. Otherwise, conditions
are dry with ample cloud cover over the rest of the region, with
some cumulus clouds now starting to emerge with modest diurnal
warming and decent low-level moisture. Nevertheless, the atmosphere
remains relatively stable at this time, as evidenced by current SPC
mesoanalysis. Thus, expect mainly rain free weather for the next few
hours over central KY and south-central IN as temperatures top out
thru the 70s to around 80 west.
Meanwhile, convection continues to slowly develop along and ahead of
a low-level frontal boundary and confluent zone from southwest IL
into south-central MO. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows an axis of -4
to -6 surface-based LI values and around 1000 J/kg CAPE in this
axis. All short-range models and the latest HRRR and SPC SREF
suggest this convection will continue to develop and expand E-NE
late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings in our area show
lapse rates increasing late this afternoon and evening, especially
aloft resulting in a more conducive environment in time to develop
and maintain convection within. As a result, will ramp up POPs this
evening, first over south-central IN and northwest KY, then eastward
later tonight.
The best chances for severe storms are to our west in the area of
the current SPC severe thunderstorm watch, enhanced by good
instability and deep-layer speed shear (with a strong upper jet
advancing eastward). As the storms move east later tonight, they may
have a tendency to become slightly elevated with modest nocturnal
cooling over our area. Nevertheless, the boundary layer may stay
adequately mixed to allow some downward momentum transport from the
strongest cells to produce isolated strong or damaging winds, mainly
along and west of the I-65 corridor. After the storms move through,
can`t totally rule out additional scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms well after midnight and into Saturday morning as a
mid-level shortwave approaches.
During the day Saturday, the shortwave will pass through our area.
This could continue the chance for scattered showers and storms over
eastern and southern forecast area in the morning, but should
effectively clear things out later in the day. As a result, much of
the afternoon should be precipitation free with temperatures rising
through the 70s. If enough sunshine occurs in the afternoon, could
see around 80 or lower 80s in western half of forecast area.
Air mass will begin to destabilize again Saturday afternoon in the
wake of the morning showers, but forcing should be quite limited
in the wake of the morning shortwave. Therefore, expect only
isolated cell redevelopment by late afternoon mainly over western
and northern areas of forecast area. This activity could become a
little more prevalent, especially northern half of forecast area,
Saturday night if a model weak signal of another approaching
shortwave proves correct.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The long term period will be fairly active with multiple chances for
showers and thunderstorms. In addition, a big shift in the upper air
pattern will bring much cooler temperatures by the end of the next
work week.
For Sunday through Monday ridging will be building aloft. At the
surface, high pressure will be centered off the east coast.
Southerly winds on the back side of this high pressure will usher in
warm and moist air to the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Sunday
will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Soundings show surface based
instability developing during the afternoon and little to no cap
across the area. However, with the lack of a trigger, storms look to
remain scattered in nature and should mostly dissipate during the
evening hours. For Monday soundings show more of a cap in place, so
rain chances look to be less than Sunday. However, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will still be possible. Highs will be
in the mid 80s.
A cold front will approach and move through the area during the
Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. There is still quite a bit of
discrepancy in the timing of this frontal passage. Thus, have gone
with pops over a wider time frame than is expected with the frontal
passage to account for uncertainty. For now, it looks like
Tuesday/Tuesday night will be the best chance for showers and
storms. However, if slower solutions pan out, chances will linger
into Wednesday.
The timing issue with the front will also have quite an impact on
temperatures mid week as a trough will move in behind this system.
This will usher in cooler air for the end of the week. Highs
Thursday and Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s with lows in the
upper 40s. There may be a slight chance of rain toward the end of
the long term as a weak disturbance moves through the flow aloft,
but timing with these is usually fairly questionable this far out.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The most immediate TAF concern will be a line of convection moving
through the TAF sites this evening...0-1Z at SDF...1-4Z at
BWG...2-5Z at LEX. This line of showers and storms may contain up
to 40 mph wind gusts and/or small hail as it passes through
especially at SDF. It will likely bring IFR-MVFR flight
restrictions as it passes through the region. We`ll probably see a
break in convection after the line passes through and then another
round of storms looks likely for late tonight (8-14Z time frame).
This round will again bring at least MVFR flight conditions. Winds
are not expected to be quite as strong given a more elevated
environment overnight and through the morning hours. Flight
conditions are expected to return to VFR levels after the line
passes by mid morning.
SW winds will continue to be gusty up to 20 kts ahead of the
convection this evening with higher gusts possible in convection.
SW winds will decline to 6-10 kts behind the line of showers and
storms. SW winds will continue through the TAF period obtaining a
slightly more westerly component tomorrow afternoon with wind speeds
generally in the 8-12 kt range.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
815 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
Did a quick update to better time POPs as the line of showers and
storms moves through the region. The line has become pretty solid
as far as coverage goes, but overall strength of storms has
declined. The strongest storms will likely contain 35 to 45 mph
wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. However, the convection is
moving into a more unfavorable environment so do expect storms to
continue to decrease in strength as the evening wears on. This
round of storms should pass through the area by midnight. We`ll see
a break in convection with another round looking likely late tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
In the near term, rainfall from this morning continues to move NE
but is still hanging in there over east-central KY. The rain will
exit our forecast area in the next 1-2 hrs. Otherwise, conditions
are dry with ample cloud cover over the rest of the region, with
some cumulus clouds now starting to emerge with modest diurnal
warming and decent low-level moisture. Nevertheless, the atmosphere
remains relatively stable at this time, as evidenced by current SPC
mesoanalysis. Thus, expect mainly rain free weather for the next few
hours over central KY and south-central IN as temperatures top out
thru the 70s to around 80 west.
Meanwhile, convection continues to slowly develop along and ahead of
a low-level frontal boundary and confluent zone from southwest IL
into south-central MO. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows an axis of -4
to -6 surface-based LI values and around 1000 J/kg CAPE in this
axis. All short-range models and the latest HRRR and SPC SREF
suggest this convection will continue to develop and expand E-NE
late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings in our area show
lapse rates increasing late this afternoon and evening, especially
aloft resulting in a more conducive environment in time to develop
and maintain convection within. As a result, will ramp up POPs this
evening, first over south-central IN and northwest KY, then eastward
later tonight.
The best chances for severe storms are to our west in the area of
the current SPC severe thunderstorm watch, enhanced by good
instability and deep-layer speed shear (with a strong upper jet
advancing eastward). As the storms move east later tonight, they may
have a tendency to become slightly elevated with modest nocturnal
cooling over our area. Nevertheless, the boundary layer may stay
adequately mixed to allow some downward momentum transport from the
strongest cells to produce isolated strong or damaging winds, mainly
along and west of the I-65 corridor. After the storms move through,
can`t totally rule out additional scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms well after midnight and into Saturday morning as a
mid-level shortwave approaches.
During the day Saturday, the shortwave will pass through our area.
This could continue the chance for scattered showers and storms over
eastern and southern forecast area in the morning, but should
effectively clear things out later in the day. As a result, much of
the afternoon should be precipitation free with temperatures rising
through the 70s. If enough sunshine occurs in the afternoon, could
see around 80 or lower 80s in western half of forecast area.
Air mass will begin to destabilize again Saturday afternoon in the
wake of the morning showers, but forcing should be quite limited
in the wake of the morning shortwave. Therefore, expect only
isolated cell redevelopment by late afternoon mainly over western
and northern areas of forecast area. This activity could become a
little more prevalent, especially northern half of forecast area,
Saturday night if a model weak signal of another approaching
shortwave proves correct.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The long term period will be fairly active with multiple chances for
showers and thunderstorms. In addition, a big shift in the upper air
pattern will bring much cooler temperatures by the end of the next
work week.
For Sunday through Monday ridging will be building aloft. At the
surface, high pressure will be centered off the east coast.
Southerly winds on the back side of this high pressure will usher in
warm and moist air to the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Sunday
will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Soundings show surface based
instability developing during the afternoon and little to no cap
across the area. However, with the lack of a trigger, storms look to
remain scattered in nature and should mostly dissipate during the
evening hours. For Monday soundings show more of a cap in place, so
rain chances look to be less than Sunday. However, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will still be possible. Highs will be
in the mid 80s.
A cold front will approach and move through the area during the
Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. There is still quite a bit of
discrepancy in the timing of this frontal passage. Thus, have gone
with pops over a wider time frame than is expected with the frontal
passage to account for uncertainty. For now, it looks like
Tuesday/Tuesday night will be the best chance for showers and
storms. However, if slower solutions pan out, chances will linger
into Wednesday.
The timing issue with the front will also have quite an impact on
temperatures mid week as a trough will move in behind this system.
This will usher in cooler air for the end of the week. Highs
Thursday and Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s with lows in the
upper 40s. There may be a slight chance of rain toward the end of
the long term as a weak disturbance moves through the flow aloft,
but timing with these is usually fairly questionable this far out.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The most immediate TAF concern will be a line of convection moving
through the TAF sites this evening...0-1Z at SDF...1-4Z at
BWG...2-5Z at LEX. This line of showers and storms may contain up
to 40 mph wind gusts and/or small hail as it passes through
especially at SDF. It will likely bring IFR-MVFR flight
restrictions as it passes through the region. We`ll probably see a
break in convection after the line passes through and then another
round of storms looks likely for late tonight (8-14Z time frame).
This round will again bring at least MVFR flight conditions. Winds
are not expected to be quite as strong given a more elevated
environment overnight and through the morning hours. Flight
conditions are expected to return to VFR levels after the line
passes by mid morning.
SW winds will continue to be gusty up to 20 kts ahead of the
convection this evening with higher gusts possible in convection.
SW winds will decline to 6-10 kts behind the line of showers and
storms. SW winds will continue through the TAF period obtaining a
slightly more westerly component tomorrow afternoon with wind speeds
generally in the 8-12 kt range.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
748 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
In the near term, rainfall from this morning continues to move NE
but is still hanging in there over east-central KY. The rain will
exit our forecast area in the next 1-2 hrs. Otherwise, conditions
are dry with ample cloud cover over the rest of the region, with
some cumulus clouds now starting to emerge with modest diurnal
warming and decent low-level moisture. Nevertheless, the atmosphere
remains relatively stable at this time, as evidenced by current SPC
mesoanalysis. Thus, expect mainly rain free weather for the next few
hours over central KY and south-central IN as temperatures top out
thru the 70s to around 80 west.
Meanwhile, convection continues to slowly develop along and ahead of
a low-level frontal boundary and confluent zone from southwest IL
into south-central MO. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows an axis of -4
to -6 surface-based LI values and around 1000 J/kg CAPE in this
axis. All short-range models and the latest HRRR and SPC SREF
suggest this convection will continue to develop and expand E-NE
late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings in our area show
lapse rates increasing late this afternoon and evening, especially
aloft resulting in a more conducive environment in time to develop
and maintain convection within. As a result, will ramp up POPs this
evening, first over south-central IN and northwest KY, then eastward
later tonight.
The best chances for severe storms are to our west in the area of
the current SPC severe thunderstorm watch, enhanced by good
instability and deep-layer speed shear (with a strong upper jet
advancing eastward). As the storms move east later tonight, they may
have a tendency to become slightly elevated with modest nocturnal
cooling over our area. Nevertheless, the boundary layer may stay
adequately mixed to allow some downward momentum transport from the
strongest cells to produce isolated strong or damaging winds, mainly
along and west of the I-65 corridor. After the storms move through,
can`t totally rule out additional scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms well after midnight and into Saturday morning as a
mid-level shortwave approaches.
During the day Saturday, the shortwave will pass through our area.
This could continue the chance for scattered showers and storms over
eastern and southern forecast area in the morning, but should
effectively clear things out later in the day. As a result, much of
the afternoon should be precipitation free with temperatures rising
through the 70s. If enough sunshine occurs in the afternoon, could
see around 80 or lower 80s in western half of forecast area.
Air mass will begin to destabilize again Saturday afternoon in the
wake of the morning showers, but forcing should be quite limited
in the wake of the morning shortwave. Therefore, expect only
isolated cell redevelopment by late afternoon mainly over western
and northern areas of forecast area. This activity could become a
little more prevalent, especially northern half of forecast area,
Saturday night if a model weak signal of another approaching
shortwave proves correct.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The long term period will be fairly active with multiple chances for
showers and thunderstorms. In addition, a big shift in the upper air
pattern will bring much cooler temperatures by the end of the next
work week.
For Sunday through Monday ridging will be building aloft. At the
surface, high pressure will be centered off the east coast.
Southerly winds on the back side of this high pressure will usher in
warm and moist air to the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Sunday
will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Soundings show surface based
instability developing during the afternoon and little to no cap
across the area. However, with the lack of a trigger, storms look to
remain scattered in nature and should mostly dissipate during the
evening hours. For Monday soundings show more of a cap in place, so
rain chances look to be less than Sunday. However, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will still be possible. Highs will be
in the mid 80s.
A cold front will approach and move through the area during the
Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. There is still quite a bit of
discrepancy in the timing of this frontal passage. Thus, have gone
with pops over a wider time frame than is expected with the frontal
passage to account for uncertainty. For now, it looks like
Tuesday/Tuesday night will be the best chance for showers and
storms. However, if slower solutions pan out, chances will linger
into Wednesday.
The timing issue with the front will also have quite an impact on
temperatures mid week as a trough will move in behind this system.
This will usher in cooler air for the end of the week. Highs
Thursday and Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s with lows in the
upper 40s. There may be a slight chance of rain toward the end of
the long term as a weak disturbance moves through the flow aloft,
but timing with these is usually fairly questionable this far out.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The most immediate TAF concern will be a line of convection moving
through the TAF sites this evening...0-1Z at SDF...1-4Z at
BWG...2-5Z at LEX. This line of showers and storms may contain up
to 40 mph wind gusts and/or small hail as it passes through
especially at SDF. It will likely bring IFR-MVFR flight
restrictions as it passes through the region. We`ll probably see a
break in convection after the line passes through and then another
round of storms looks likely for late tonight (8-14Z time frame).
This round will again bring at least MVFR flight conditions. Winds
are not expected to be quite as strong given a more elevated
environment overnight and through the morning hours. Flight
conditions are expected to return to VFR levels after the line
passes by mid morning.
SW winds will continue to be gusty up to 20 kts ahead of the
convection this evening with higher gusts possible in convection.
SW winds will decline to 6-10 kts behind the line of showers and
storms. SW winds will continue through the TAF period obtaining a
slightly more westerly component tomorrow afternoon with wind speeds
generally in the 8-12 kt range.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Update for 6z aviation only.
UPDATE Issued at 847 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Winds have subsided below Lake Wind Advisory Criteria as of 01Z,
so will let it die a natural death at the top of the hour.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape. Will see an increase in
mainly high cloud overnight, with persistent south winds and
slowly falling temperatures. Lows should generally be in the
middle 60s. The only real adjustment was to lower dewpoints a bit
through the night.
There are several areas of convection throughout the Plains this evening,
and the HRRR indicates that convective development will continue over
the Plains through the night. All of that activity is moving mostly
north and poses no threat to our region tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Updated for 00z aviation only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Will let the Lake Wind Advisory ride, though not sure it needs to
go until 9 p.m. Evening shift can end it earlier if need be.
Weak mid level impulse driving small convection near our SRN IL
counties early this afternoon. Feature will continue NE and for
the most part will be a non factor. Tonight through Thursday
mainly dry weather with occasional high clouds, and some CU
Thursday afternoon. Chance PoPs still in place far west late in
the day Thursday, spreading ENE into SEMO, SW IL through the
evening. Chance of convection will increase later Thursday night
from west to east, with best chance PoPs shifting to the ERN 1/3
of the area by early Friday afternoon. Could be some strong to
severe convection over the west part of the area Friday afternoon
and evening as a s/wv lifts ENE from the Plains into the Great
Lakes 18z Fri-06z Sat. Marginal on the severe, supported mainly by
steepening lapse rates, and an increasing upper jet, coincident
with surface based destabilization just ahead of a surface front,
that approaches from the west, and fails to make it into the area.
Evening convective chances will diminish with only slim chance
PoPs after midnight Friday night. Temps will be a blend of the
latest MOS, and previous numbers. Again, trended just a degree or
two lower Friday over the ERN 1/3 of the area, where clouds and
convective chances will persist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
The main item of interest in the long term will be a fairly strong
cold front that will move southeast across our region early next
week. This front will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms...followed by cooler and drier conditions for mid
week. Prior to the frontal passage...this weekend will be
seasonably warm and humid with a few showers or storms possible.
As far as the daily details...
Early Saturday...the remnants of a surface cold front or trough over
the Mid Mississippi Valley will dissipate. Southwest low level flow
will increase during the afternoon. A few showers or storms cannot
be ruled out near the dissipating surface boundary or within the
zone of increasing low level thetae advection. There will likely be
some weak upper level subsidence in the wake of the Friday night
shortwave...so any activity Saturday should be isolated. Temps will
be on the warm side for early May in the persistent southwest flow
pattern.
Saturday night and Sunday...an upper level ridge over the
southeastern states will strengthen slightly. This ridge will keep
our region generally warm and dry. A few isolated storms are
possible on the periphery of the ridge...mainly along and northwest
of the Ohio Valley.
On Monday or Tuesday...a fairly strong cold front will sweep
southeast across our region. The timing of the front is highly
variable among the models. The 12z ecmwf is similar to the 00z
run...keeping the frontal passage delayed until Tuesday. The 12z gfs
and its ensemble mean still brings the front across our region
Monday. There will be a period of showers and storms along and ahead
of the front...some of which could be rather strong.
By Wednesday...noticeably cooler and drier air will arrive as 850 mb
temps fall about 10 degrees Celsius. Even with abundant
sunshine...highs would only reach the lower 70s based on the
consensus 850 mb temps of plus 6 to plus 8.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Winds were decreasing to around 10 knots SSW. Added LLWS with KEVV
AND KPAH were showing 40 to 50 knots out of the south at 2k feet.
Overnight should start to see some blow off from convection over
the plains. Moisture continues to increase over the area resulting
in more low clouds Thursday. There is some hint of 5k cig but
single is weak and held off for now. Winds get going Thursday
similar to today. However do expect additional cloud cover.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
505 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW YIELDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THEN DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A QUICK CORRECTION FOR THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AS OF 07Z...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC TO WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
MIDWEST TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH FROM NELSON COUNTY (11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL DISCERNS THIS WELL). CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN PA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON (UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE REMOVES NRN CWA POPS).
TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...BREAKING LAST FOR HARFORD COUNTY AS THE SFC RIDGE
INFLUENCE/ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS ON THERE THE LONGEST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95 (THE HRRR HAS PROGGED SHOWERS FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS...A CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SALISBURY
MD). THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ONSHORE FRONT (OR WARM FRONT)
IS POSSIBLE SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE AREA.
HOT TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...13-16C 850MB TEMPS MIX DOWN TO MID
TO UPR 80S. 90F POSSIBLE INVOF KCHO (AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE KW99 HIT 90F). HOWEVER...THE CLOUD AND ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
WILL KEEP TEMPS LIMITED ON THE WESTERN SHORE...LOW TO PERHAPS MID
70S FOR HARFORD AND ANNAPOLIS.
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AS SFC RIDGE DRIFTS BACK WEST (THERE HAS BEEN
A LOT OF DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH OF FRONTS THIS PAST WEEK!) MILD
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...MID 50S FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
FRIDAY...LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE AREA. SUNNY MORNING WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 90F AGAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE DC METRO (MID 80S FOR BALT-WASH). THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE LEE
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 30 POPS WEST FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT DELAYED TO 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DETERIORATE
NEAR THE AREA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DETERIORATED BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ON
SATURDAY...BUT IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA 80S ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 80S AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP LOCALLY AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION JUSTIFIED KEEPING CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN GRIDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRIEFLY RESUME CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DETAILS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN SO FAR OUT...SO LOW END CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST
FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR 80 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE AREA. LOWS WILL REFLECT THE SAME
PATTERN...WARMER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN ERODE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. KMTN MAY MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES SLY BUT
LIGHT SO POSSIBLY VARIABLE. EXPECT FOG/IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN. THAT FOG WILL BREAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN LOW CEILINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KT AND WILL BECOME SLY/VARIABLE
TODAY. SELY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN LAST EVENING...NO SCA AS OF NOW BUT HIGHEST GUST
TIME WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY FLOW THEN FOR
FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN FOR SURE IN SWLY FLOW SATURDAY...CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CEB
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW YIELDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC TO WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
MIDWEST TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH FROM NELSON COUNTY (11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL DISCERNS THIS WELL). CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN PA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON (UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE REMOVES NRN CWA POPS).
TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...BREAKING LAST FOR HARFORD COUNTY AS THE SFC RIDGE
INFLUENCE/ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS ON THERE THE LONGEST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95 (THE HRRR HAS PROGGED SHOWERS FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS...A CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SALISBURY
MD). THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ONSHORE FRONT (OR WARM FRONT)
IS POSSIBLE SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE AREA.
HOT TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...13-16C 850MB TEMPS MIX DOWN TO MID
TO UPR 80S. 90F POSSIBLE INVOF KCHO (AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE KW99 HIT 90F). HOWEVER...THE CLOUD AND ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
WILL KEEP TEMPS LIMITED ON THE WESTERN SHORE...LOW TO PERHAPS MID
70S FOR HARFORD AND ANNAPOLIS.
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AS SFC RIDGE DRIFTS BACK WEST (THERE HAS BEEN
A LOT OF DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH OF FRONTS THIS PAST WEEK!) MILD
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...MID 50S FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
FRIDAY...LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE AREA. SUNNY MORNING WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 90F AGAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE DC METRO (MID 80S FOR BALT-WASH). THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE LEE
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 30 POPS WEST FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT DELAYED TO 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DETERIORATE
NEAR THE AREA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DETERIORATED BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ON
SATURDAY...BUT IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA 80S ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 80S AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP LOCALLY AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION JUSTIFIED KEEPING CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN GRIDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRIEFLY RESUME CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DETAILS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN SO FAR OUT...SO LOW END CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST
FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR 80 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE AREA. LOWS WILL REFLECT THE SAME
PATTERN...WARMER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN ERODE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. KMTN MAY MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES SLY BUT
LIGHT SO POSSIBLY VARIABLE. EXPECT FOG/IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN. THAT FOG WILL BREAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN LOW CEILINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KT AND WILL BECOME SLY/VARIABLE
TODAY. SELY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN LAST EVENING...NO SCA AS OF NOW BUT HIGHEST GUST
TIME WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY FLOW THEN FOR
FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CEB
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS TO START THE
FORECAST LEAVING A CLEARING TREND BEHIND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MBS AREA WHERE A FIELD OF VFR STRATUS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH SOUTH OF FNT BEFORE
MOVING INTO ONTARIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THE CLOUDS WILL BE DRIVEN OUT OF
THE AREA BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 945 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT SURGING
THROUGH THE TRI CITIES AND ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH FLINT AT PRESS
TIME. THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY
INSTABILITY WANING AFTER SUNSET. EARLIER UPDATES SHIFTED THE FOCUS
ON PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREFRONTAL LINE EXITING INTO ONTARIO TO
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LEAVE SE MICHIGAN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRATUS MOVING IN
FROM WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. THESE
CLOUD EXPECTATIONS WILL BE REFINED WITH ONE MORE UPDATE TO COVER
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
CLOUDS AND SHALLOW EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN A
RATHER NEBULOUS PICTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MID 70S TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 ARE MAKING A RENEWED PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE MID AFTN AND CLOUD OPACITY IS DECREASING.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES AT A RATHER MODEST 500 J/KG OVER WESTERN
LOWER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC SUGGEST A
RECOVERY TO 1000 J/KG CAPE BY AROUND 22Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OVERZEALOUS HANDLING OF QPF BY TODAY`S
NWP MAKES THE PROGGED RECOVERY ALL THE MORE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, IN
AND AN ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH THE MID-LEVEL
AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM BOTH POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE AND EARLY CONVECTION, A SPECIAL SOUNDING WAS
LAUNCHED AT APPROXIMATELY 1930Z. THE DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FINALLY, ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION THAT BUBBLES UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO
LOOSE FOOTING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 00Z...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY EVEN ALLOW A HAIL
THREAT TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO WIND AS UPDRAFTS ARE ALLOWED TO
DEEPEN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN PARALLEL NATURE OF THE MEAN FLOW TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY...BUT AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WILL EXIST DEPENDING ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MENTION A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREATS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
LONG TERM...
DIFFERENTIAL HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHARP MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. DRYING SIGNAL IN THE 925-850MB LAYER SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF LCL HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY REACHING A VERY
HIGH 6000 FT AGL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP TURBULENT
MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW BREEZY WESTERLIES TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO
30 KNOTS. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY ARE NOW QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH ANY EXPECTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN FACT...POCKET
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS NOWHERE TO BE SEEN...SUGGESTING
THAT EVEN A SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL BE DIFFICULT. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER...READING REACHING THE UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS...72
OR 73 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE/LOWER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST.
THE INBOUND LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS WELL. PRECEDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION IS PROGGED TO BE VERY GOOD
WHICH WILL AID IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY.
EARLY PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
RESIDENCE DURING THE MORNING. WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL EVENTUALLY VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SUNDAY PERIOD HAS BEEN A NOISY ONE WITHIN THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE COMING
TOGETHER SUPPORTIVE OF A MID CHANCE POP IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATE AFTERNOON PUSH WITH WARMTH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE TRI CITIES AREA. AGAIN...WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH VIA A 40KT H85 JET. THIS WILL BRING PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD WITH POPS 50
TO 60 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THE HIGH POP EVENT. BOTH DAYS POSE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
AS LI/S WILL BE NEGATIVE. MUCH LIKE THE PAST 2 DAYS HERE...MONDAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED BUT WITH CAPE WELL OVER 2500
J/KG. TUESDAY WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING...BUT LOWER CAPE VALUES. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SLOW CHURNING LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS PROXIMAL TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ALONG WITH A
GENERAL THUNDER THREAT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
COOL WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
MARINE...
A STRONGLY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS
MAINLY UNDER 30 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE STRONG OVER
LAKE STABILITY. THUS WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE CONTINUED STRONG
STABILITY WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB/MM
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
945 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT SURGING
THROUGH THE TRI CITIES AND ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH FLINT AT PRESS
TIME. THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY
INSTABILITY WANING AFTER SUNSET. EARLIER UPDATES SHIFTED THE FOCUS
ON PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREFRONTAL LINE EXITING INTO ONTARIO TO
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LEAVE SE MICHIGAN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRATUS MOVING IN
FROM WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. THESE
CLOUD EXPECTATIONS WILL BE REFINED WITH ONE MORE UPDATE TO COVER
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 710 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
//DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS CONCERN THAT STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AT PRESS
TIME WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO REACH THE DTW AREA
MID TO LATE EVENING. THE OTHER SCENARIO HAS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NW INDIANA AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS GAINING
GROUND ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WHICH MAY MARK THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR STORMS. SHOULD THIS REMAIN THE CASE...THEN STORM
POTENTIAL WILL ONLY INCLUDE PTK AND THE DTW AREA THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE AN AREA OF MVFR CEILING OVER
WISCONSIN THAT LOOKS ERODED DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS POST FRONT INTO FNT AND MBS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN GET DRIVEN OUT OF THE AREA BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING IN AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR DTW... ONGOING ACTIVITY TOWARD TOLEDO WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER SW
LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY
AFFECTING DTW 02-05Z. TIMING IS SOLID ON THE FORECAST OF THE FRONT
ITSELF CLEARING THE TERMINAL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT IN STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
CLOUDS AND SHALLOW EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN A
RATHER NEBULOUS PICTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MID 70S TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 ARE MAKING A RENEWED PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE MID AFTN AND CLOUD OPACITY IS DECREASING.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES AT A RATHER MODEST 500 J/KG OVER WESTERN
LOWER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC SUGGEST A
RECOVERY TO 1000 J/KG CAPE BY AROUND 22Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OVERZEALOUS HANDLING OF QPF BY TODAY`S
NWP MAKES THE PROGGED RECOVERY ALL THE MORE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, IN
AND AN ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH THE MID-LEVEL
AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM BOTH POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE AND EARLY CONVECTION, A SPECIAL SOUNDING WAS
LAUNCHED AT APPROXIMATELY 1930Z. THE DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FINALLY, ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION THAT BUBBLES UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO
LOOSE FOOTING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 00Z...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY EVEN ALLOW A HAIL
THREAT TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO WIND AS UPDRAFTS ARE ALLOWED TO
DEEPEN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN PARALLEL NATURE OF THE MEAN FLOW TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY...BUT AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WILL EXIST DEPENDING ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MENTION A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREATS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
LONG TERM...
DIFFERENTIAL HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHARP MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. DRYING SIGNAL IN THE 925-850MB LAYER SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF LCL HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY REACHING A VERY
HIGH 6000 FT AGL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP TURBULENT
MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW BREEZY WESTERLIES TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO
30 KNOTS. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY ARE NOW QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH ANY EXPECTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN FACT...POCKET
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS NOWHERE TO BE SEEN...SUGGESTING
THAT EVEN A SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL BE DIFFICULT. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER...READING REACHING THE UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS...72
OR 73 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE/LOWER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST.
THE INBOUND LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS WELL. PRECEDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION IS PROGGED TO BE VERY GOOD
WHICH WILL AID IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY.
EARLY PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
RESIDENCE DURING THE MORNING. WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL EVENTUALLY VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SUNDAY PERIOD HAS BEEN A NOISY ONE WITHIN THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE COMING
TOGETHER SUPPORTIVE OF A MID CHANCE POP IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATE AFTERNOON PUSH WITH WARMTH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE TRI CITIES AREA. AGAIN...WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH VIA A 40KT H85 JET. THIS WILL BRING PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD WITH POPS 50
TO 60 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THE HIGH POP EVENT. BOTH DAYS POSE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
AS LI/S WILL BE NEGATIVE. MUCH LIKE THE PAST 2 DAYS HERE...MONDAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED BUT WITH CAPE WELL OVER 2500
J/KG. TUESDAY WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING...BUT LOWER CAPE VALUES. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SLOW CHURNING LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS PROXIMAL TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ALONG WITH A
GENERAL THUNDER THREAT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
COOL WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
MARINE...
A STRONGLY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS
MAINLY UNDER 30 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE STRONG OVER
LAKE STABILITY. THUS WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE CONTINUED STRONG
STABILITY WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB/MM
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS CONCERN THAT STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AT PRESS
TIME WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO REACH THE DTW AREA
MID TO LATE EVENING. THE OTHER SCENARIO HAS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NW INDIANA AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS GAINING
GROUND ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WHICH MAY MARK THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR STORMS. SHOULD THIS REMAIN THE CASE...THEN STORM
POTENTIAL WILL ONLY INCLUDE PTK AND THE DTW AREA THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE AN AREA OF MVFR CEILING OVER
WISCONSIN THAT LOOKS ERODED DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS POST FRONT INTO FNT AND MBS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN GET DRIVEN OUT OF THE AREA BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING IN AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR DTW... ONGOING ACTIVITY TOWARD TOLEDO WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER SW
LOWER AND NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY
AFFECTING DTW 02-05Z. TIMING IS SOLID ON THE FORECAST OF THE FRONT
ITSELF CLEARING THE TERMINAL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT IN STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
CLOUDS AND SHALLOW EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN A
RATHER NEBULOUS PICTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MID 70S TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 ARE MAKING A RENEWED PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE MID AFTN AND CLOUD OPACITY IS DECREASING.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES AT A RATHER MODEST 500 J/KG OVER WESTERN
LOWER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC SUGGEST A
RECOVERY TO 1000 J/KG CAPE BY AROUND 22Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OVERZEALOUS HANDLING OF QPF BY TODAY`S
NWP MAKES THE PROGGED RECOVERY ALL THE MORE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, IN
AND AN ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH THE MID-LEVEL
AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM BOTH POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE AND EARLY CONVECTION, A SPECIAL SOUNDING WAS
LAUNCHED AT APPROXIMATELY 1930Z. THE DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FINALLY, ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION THAT BUBBLES UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO
LOOSE FOOTING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 00Z...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY EVEN ALLOW A HAIL
THREAT TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO WIND AS UPDRAFTS ARE ALLOWED TO
DEEPEN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN PARALLEL NATURE OF THE MEAN FLOW TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY...BUT AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WILL EXIST DEPENDING ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MENTION A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREATS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
LONG TERM...
DIFFERENTIAL HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHARP MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. DRYING SIGNAL IN THE 925-850MB LAYER SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF LCL HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY REACHING A VERY
HIGH 6000 FT AGL. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP TURBULENT
MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW BREEZY WESTERLIES TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO
30 KNOTS. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY ARE NOW QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH ANY EXPECTED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN FACT...POCKET
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS NOWHERE TO BE SEEN...SUGGESTING
THAT EVEN A SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL BE DIFFICULT. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER...READING REACHING THE UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS...72
OR 73 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE/LOWER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST.
THE INBOUND LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS WELL. PRECEDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION IS PROGGED TO BE VERY GOOD
WHICH WILL AID IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY.
EARLY PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
RESIDENCE DURING THE MORNING. WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL EVENTUALLY VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SUNDAY PERIOD HAS BEEN A NOISY ONE WITHIN THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE COMING
TOGETHER SUPPORTIVE OF A MID CHANCE POP IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATE AFTERNOON PUSH WITH WARMTH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE TRI CITIES AREA. AGAIN...WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH VIA A 40KT H85 JET. THIS WILL BRING PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD WITH POPS 50
TO 60 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THE HIGH POP EVENT. BOTH DAYS POSE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
AS LI/S WILL BE NEGATIVE. MUCH LIKE THE PAST 2 DAYS HERE...MONDAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED BUT WITH CAPE WELL OVER 2500
J/KG. TUESDAY WILL HAVE MORE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING...BUT LOWER CAPE VALUES. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SLOW CHURNING LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS PROXIMAL TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ALONG WITH A
GENERAL THUNDER THREAT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
COOL WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.
MARINE...
A STRONGLY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS
MAINLY UNDER 30 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE STRONG OVER
LAKE STABILITY. THUS WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE CONTINUED STRONG
STABILITY WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB/MM
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
221 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
CONVECTION AND FOG ARE THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EJECTING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH IOWA...KANSAS...AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 996MB LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN KANSAS IS
STRETCHING A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WARM MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
FARTHER ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS PULLING WARM
AIR (10C TEMPS OVER THE U.P.) AND MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS OF 6-10C)
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS REGION AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS PAST EVENING OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SHIFTED EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NOW
IS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA (ON AXIS OF 700MB MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION) AND HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
THERE WAS ONE CELL NEAR GRAND MARAIS THAT WAS CLOSE TO BECOMING
SEVERE). THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AS THAT 700MB AXIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION
IS ONGOING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
IN LINE WITH THE CORFIDI AND STORM MOTION VECTORS. THAT CONVECTION
(WHICH IS FEEDING OFF AN AXIS OF BETTER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 925MB WARM FRONT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES) SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE FEED TO THE STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. THAT HAS LED TO THE PULSE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE OCCASIONAL PULSES
THAT MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P. OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2/3RDS OF AN INCH IN THE KEWEENAW
LED TO A QUICK RISE ON THE TRAP ROCK RIVER (OVER A FOOT IN A COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD TO AID THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF). BACK TO THE WISCONSIN
CONVECTION...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CWA (LIKELY
REACHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER BETWEEN IRON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 10Z). HAVE SHOWN HIGHER POPS AS THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.P. BUT NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...AS
I WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING AS IT PULLS A LITTLE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE BETTERN 850MB MOISTURE/FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL (COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE).
BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE EXACT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATING THE STRONG WAA REGIME WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME CAPPING AND THUS WOULD EXPECT SOME DIMINISHMENT IN
THE ACTIVITY (OR EVEN ENDING) TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA IN THE POPS...BUT STILL LEFT A PERIOD OF CHANCES OR
SLIGHT CHANCES TO ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE. ON LAST ITEM TO NOTE...IS
THE 00Z SPC WRF (WHICH IS HANDLING THIS AREAS CONVECTION DECENTLY)
ALONG WITH THE 00Z NCEP WRFS AND RECENT HRRR ARE INDICATING
THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA HOLDING TOGETHER AND AFFECTING THE
AREA (CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA) TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LASTEST
LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THAT OCCURRING BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TRICKY...AS MIXING DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN
WISCONSIN. THOUGHT CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WOULD LIMIT WARMING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP THE TEMPS FROM REALLY WARMING UP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
CLEARING THINGS OUT AND LEADING TO GOOD MIXING (WHICH SHOOTS TEMPS
UP OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL INTO THE 70S AND SOME SPOTS AROUND
80). OPTED TO KEEP VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE
WEST AND KEPT VALUES COOLER (UPPER 40S AND 50S) IMMEDIATELY DOWN
WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW DUE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR) DUE TO THE COOL LAKE TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS.
NOW FOR THE NEXT WAVE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/S FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AFTER THE STRENGTHENING
CAP LIMITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO KICK OFF IN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. THEN WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45KTS...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS SEEM TO HAVE DELAYED THE INITIATION A
LITTLE BIT AND THUS HAVE PUSHED THE INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH END
LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITES BACK OF COUPLE HOURS. STILL EXPECT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE AREA BY MID/LATE EVENING AND THEN
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED OFF MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA AS THE STORMS RACE OUT AHEAD
OF THEIR INITIAL SUPPORT AND MODELS INDICATING INSTABILITY
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH IF THE STORMS COULD REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE...THE SPEED OF STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT.
FINALLY...THERE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GENERAL
IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG ON THE GREAT LAKES SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS. COULD SEE IT BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WHEN IT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NAM
SHOWS THE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT ON FRI MORNING
AND A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME
THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. WRAPAROUND
PART OF STORM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SAT NIGHT LATE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN. THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES STARTS TO PULL OUT INTO THE PLAINS
12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO 12Z TUE WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO 12Z WED WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY REAL DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THERE MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION
TIMING/LOCATION ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL OFF THE GREAT
LAKES ONCE CONVECTION ENSUES. EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT HAVE LIFTED SO EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN A BRIEF
SHOWER AT KSAW...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD
BE LIMITED BY MID-LVL CAP OF DRIER/WARMER AIR. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THIS EVENING AS A LOW MOVES
THROUGH MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND RACE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AROUND
45MPH. THE WARM MOIST AIR AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KCMX AND KSAW IN E TO SE
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES
SEEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE TODAY. BUT AS MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND
WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT
PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK/ IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING
THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK
RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN
INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1257 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...WET WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF HOLLAND. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. BASED ON THAT IT WOULD TAKE
AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION THROUGH 4
PM SO I WOULD SEE THIS AS A MID DECK SHOWER EVENT. I PUT 20-30 PCT
POP IN THE GRIDS TO COVER IT.
IT LOOKS GREAT FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY TOO... THE WARM FRONT IS
NEAR I-96 AND WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY 2-3 PM. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MI MAY
AFFECT THE KMKG TERMINAL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO MVFR IN THAT TIME FRAME AS STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES IN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAGES AT SEVERAL GRAND RIVER GAGES HAVE ALREADY CRESTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING/S LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND NOW SHOW A STEADY
FALL. THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN SAW SOME AREAS OF RAIN LAST NIGHT
WHICH HAS BROUGHT A MINOR ONGOING SPIKE TO THE MOUNT PLEASANT GAGE.
WE ARE MONITORING THE EVART GAGE WITH THE USGS FOR POSSIBLE DATA
QUALITY ISSUES AFTER STORMS THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THIS...THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF HOLLAND. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. BASED ON THAT IT WOULD TAKE
AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION THROUGH 4
PM SO I WOULD SEE THIS AS A MID DECK SHOWER EVENT. I PUT 20-30 PCT
POP IN THE GRIDS TO COVER IT.
IT LOOKS GREAT FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY TOO... THE WARM FRONT IS
NEAR I-96 AND WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY 2-3 PM. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MI MAY
AFFECT THE KMKG TERMINAL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO MVFR IN THAT TIME FRAME AS STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES IN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF HOLLAND. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. BASED ON THAT IT WOULD TAKE
AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION THROUGH 4
PM SO I WOULD SEE THIS AS A MID DECK SHOWER EVENT. I PUT 20-30 PCT
POP IN THE GRIDS TO COVER IT.
IT LOOKS GREAT FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY TOO... THE WARM FRONT IS
NEAR I-96 AND WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY 2-3 PM. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-22 KNOTS BY NOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH COULD IMPACT SRN LWR MI LATER THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING HERE.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06-09Z TONIGHT ACROSS WRN LWR
MI INCLUDING MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT MKG. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-22 KNOTS BY NOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH COULD IMPACT SRN LWR MI LATER THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING HERE.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06-09Z TONIGHT ACROSS WRN LWR
MI INCLUDING MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT MKG. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
CONVECTION AND FOG ARE THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EJECTING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH IOWA...KANSAS...AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 996MB LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN KANSAS IS
STRETCHING A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WARM MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
FARTHER ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS PULLING WARM
AIR (10C TEMPS OVER THE U.P.) AND MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS OF 6-10C)
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS REGION AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS PAST EVENING OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SHIFTED EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NOW
IS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA (ON AXIS OF 700MB MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION) AND HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
THERE WAS ONE CELL NEAR GRAND MARAIS THAT WAS CLOSE TO BECOMING
SEVERE). THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AS THAT 700MB AXIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION
IS ONGOING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
IN LINE WITH THE CORFIDI AND STORM MOTION VECTORS. THAT CONVECTION
(WHICH IS FEEDING OFF AN AXIS OF BETTER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 925MB WARM FRONT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES) SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE FEED TO THE STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. THAT HAS LED TO THE PULSE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE OCCASIONAL PULSES
THAT MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P. OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2/3RDS OF AN INCH IN THE KEWEENAW
LED TO A QUICK RISE ON THE TRAP ROCK RIVER (OVER A FOOT IN A COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD TO AID THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF). BACK TO THE WISCONSIN
CONVECTION...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CWA (LIKELY
REACHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER BETWEEN IRON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 10Z). HAVE SHOWN HIGHER POPS AS THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.P. BUT NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...AS
I WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING AS IT PULLS A LITTLE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE BETTERN 850MB MOISTURE/FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL (COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE).
BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE EXACT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATING THE STRONG WAA REGIME WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME CAPPING AND THUS WOULD EXPECT SOME DIMINISHMENT IN
THE ACTIVITY (OR EVEN ENDING) TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA IN THE POPS...BUT STILL LEFT A PERIOD OF CHANCES OR
SLIGHT CHANCES TO ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE. ON LAST ITEM TO NOTE...IS
THE 00Z SPC WRF (WHICH IS HANDLING THIS AREAS CONVECTION DECENTLY)
ALONG WITH THE 00Z NCEP WRFS AND RECENT HRRR ARE INDICATING
THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA HOLDING TOGETHER AND AFFECTING THE
AREA (CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA) TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LASTEST
LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THAT OCCURRING BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TRICKY...AS MIXING DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN
WISCONSIN. THOUGHT CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WOULD LIMIT WARMING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP THE TEMPS FROM REALLY WARMING UP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
CLEARING THINGS OUT AND LEADING TO GOOD MIXING (WHICH SHOOTS TEMPS
UP OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL INTO THE 70S AND SOME SPOTS AROUND
80). OPTED TO KEEP VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE
WEST AND KEPT VALUES COOLER (UPPER 40S AND 50S) IMMEDIATELY DOWN
WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW DUE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR) DUE TO THE COOL LAKE TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS.
NOW FOR THE NEXT WAVE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/S FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AFTER THE STRENGTHENING
CAP LIMITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO KICK OFF IN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. THEN WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45KTS...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS SEEM TO HAVE DELAYED THE INITIATION A
LITTLE BIT AND THUS HAVE PUSHED THE INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH END
LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITES BACK OF COUPLE HOURS. STILL EXPECT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE AREA BY MID/LATE EVENING AND THEN
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED OFF MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA AS THE STORMS RACE OUT AHEAD
OF THEIR INITIAL SUPPORT AND MODELS INDICATING INSTABILITY
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH IF THE STORMS COULD REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE...THE SPEED OF STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT.
FINALLY...THERE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GENERAL
IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG ON THE GREAT LAKES SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS. COULD SEE IT BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WHEN IT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NAM
SHOWS THE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT ON FRI MORNING
AND A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME
THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. WRAPAROUND
PART OF STORM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SAT NIGHT LATE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN. THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES STARTS TO PULL OUT INTO THE PLAINS
12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO 12Z TUE WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO 12Z WED WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY REAL DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THERE MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCT/NMRS ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND IL. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES
SEEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE TODAY. BUT AS MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND
WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT
PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK/ IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING
THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK
RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN
INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NAM
SHOWS THE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT ON FRI MORNING
AND A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME
THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. WRAPAROUND
PART OF STORM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SAT NIGHT LATE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN. THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES STARTS TO PULL OUT INTO THE PLAINS
12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO 12Z TUE WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO 12Z WED WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY REAL DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THERE MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCT/NMRS ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND IL. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES
SEEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE TODAY. BUT AS MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND
WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT
PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK/ IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING
THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK
RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN
INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
I BACKED OFF ON THE MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. I ALSO DELAYED THE
LOWERING OF THE VISIBILITIES. WHILE IT WILL BE UNSTABLE
TONIGHT....I DID NOT FEATURE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAP TRIES TO FORM.
HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE STORMS IN WRN WI...AS THEY
MAY TRY TO TRACK INTO LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CAP BECOMES WEAK...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. FOR NOW I KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST. IF STORMS DO FORM...THE COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
103 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENT ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SW FLOW SHORTWAVES TO
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS TO THE FCST AREA.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...A SHORTWAVE NOW NEAR THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC 3H JET MAX
WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
WITH THE BEST MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
STAYING NW OF THE FCST AREA. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA...THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU AND THEN PUSH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI INCREASING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION ALONG INCOMING WARM FRONT...POOLING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES TO NEAR 40 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE WI BDR COUNTIES THU EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW CAPPED LOW-
LEVELS ARE FROM FCST SNDGS WOULD THINK THREAT OF SVR WOULD BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN JUST A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS A MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOC SFC RDG BUILD IN FM WEST BEHIND THE
FRIDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY
BE COOL ON SATURDAY (GENERALLY IN THE 50S) IN A LIGHT NRLY FLOW BUT
FARTHER INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF LOWER TO MID 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED UNDER PREVALENT SUNSHINE.
SAT NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SW FLOW SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE UPPER LAKES. WAA ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT SHRA TO THE AREA.
MODELS MORE UNCERTAIN ON EVOLVING PATTERN DETAILS FOR SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WED AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGS SE...DEEPENING MID-UPR LVL TROF
OVER THE SW CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH
SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPR LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT MOVING IT
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO GO
ALONG MORE WITH NCEP PREFERRED SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/GEM IDEA
WHICH SHOULD YIELD MORE SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHC FOR TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON NIGHT AND FOR THE ERN
PORTION OF CWA ON TUE AS ECMWF INDICATES NEG SHOWALTER INDICES IN
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCT/NMRS ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND IL. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
EXPECT ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TO VEER TO THE SE THRU THU AS LO PRES
IN THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT
BACK ON THE COVERAGE. BUT AS MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE
DAY AND THU NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE S AHEAD OF THE LO MOVING
THRU MN...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE W. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE ON FRI NIGHT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HI SHIFTS
TO THE E AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
PASSES ON MON...THE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND THEN THE TO NW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE EARLY MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WITH THE RECENT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
HAVE SLOWLY COME DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR CHASSELL REMAINS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN
FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACT
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
601 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHRA/TSRA trends are the primary concern this evening, and are
remaining very difficult to pin down. Early on, N-S band of
showers and thunderstorms now moving into central MO will work its
way east during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
Have leaned heavily on the HRRR runs for trends over the next 3-6
hours, as it continues to provide superior guidance on the trends
with this area of convection. Passage of the shortwave fueling
this precip will likely cause area to diminish a bit in coverage
and intensity during the evening, but additional (and hard to
time) upstream shortwaves, as well as persistent WAA and
associated isentropic ascent, should generate additional shower
and thunderstorm activity during the late evening and overnight
hours in the warm sector. Precip threat (especially in our NW
counties) will also be driven by convection that forms along the
cold front and works its way east with time.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Overnight elevated SHRA/TSRA forced by the LLJ will probably be
ongoing at daybreak on Fri, at least over part of the CWA. As the
core of the LLJ shifts northeastward into IL/IN, the greatest
moisture convergence and forcing for pcpn will also shift out of
the CWA. Consequently, there should be a decrease in precipitation
coverage or perhaps even a lull during the mid to late morning
hours on Fri. The absence of widespread precipitation combined
with some breaks in the clouds should be sufficient for afternoon
destabilization across the southeastern one-half to one-third of
the CWA. This detail matters because a trough with a vort max in
its base will be approaching from the west. Large scale ascent
from DCVA as well as lift ahead of the cold front will likely
occur in an environment with H7-H5 lapse rates of 6-7.5 deg C/km
and 40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear as well as nearly
unidirectional wind profiles. These parameters are sufficient for
severe thunderstorms with hail and wind as the primary threats.
Although recent model runs all depict a solution where the cold
front moves through most of the CWA on Fri night and then stalls
in southern MO before lifting northward as a warm front on Sat,
the effective boundary might end up much farther south by Sat
morning depending on outflow boundaries from convection on Fri/Fri
night. If this occurs, then the temperature forecast for Sat may
be too warm. Shortwave ridging aloft is expected on Sat with a
compact vort max moving across southern MN, which is much farther
north than yesterday`s model runs. The H85 LLJ associated with the
vort max moving across MN could produce enough lift over the warm
front to support scattered SHRA/TSRA in MO/IL, especially if
forecast H7-H5 lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km are realized. SHRA/TSRA
are also possible on Sat night due to moisture convergence along a
strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
A new trough develops out west over the weekend, inducing surface
cyclogenesis over the plains and eventually sending another cold
front through MO/IL early next week. Models disagree on how
quickly the trough shifts eastward into the central CONUS, leading
to disagreements on how quickly the cold front moves through the
LSX CWA. It appears that there will be a period of northwest flow
or cyclonic flow during the middle of next week depending on how
the trough evolves. Expect cooler temperatures in such a pattern
with precip chances dependent on shortwaves and moisture
availability.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east this
evening. The rain will be moving out of KCOU soon, but persist at
KUIN through mid evening, and will soon move into the St. Louis
metro TAF sites and persist through 04-05Z. Expect MVFR
conditions with the rain, and some of the heavier cores could
briefly produce IFR visibilities. This band will then move out and
expect a period of dry and VFR conditions before another round of
showers and scattered thunderstorms moves through the area
overnight and early Friday morning. This will coincide with an
area of low MVFR ceilings that will persist through mid-late
morning before slowly improving to VFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and thunderstorms will move into the
terminal by 01Z, though scattered thunderstorms will be in the
area before then. Expect MVFR conditions with the rain. This first
area of rain will move out around 04Z, but then expect another
round of showers and scattered thunderstorms to move through the
terminal starting around 09Z. Low MVFR conditions are expected
with this second round that will persist after the rain ends. VFR
ceilings are not expected until midday. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop in the vicinity of KSTL tomorrow afternoon and then
move east of the airport by 00Z.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
300 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHRA/TSRA trends are the primary concern this evening, and are
remaining very difficult to pin down. Early on, N-S band of
showers and thunderstorms now moving into central MO will work its
way east during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
Have leaned heavily on the HRRR runs for trends over the next 3-6
hours, as it continues to provide superior guidance on the trends
with this area of convection. Passage of the shortwave fueling
this precip will likely cause area to diminish a bit in coverage
and intensity during the evening, but additional (and hard to
time) upstream shortwaves, as well as persistent WAA and
associated isentropic ascent, should generate additional shower
and thunderstorm activity during the late evening and overnight
hours in the warm sector. Precip threat (especially in our NW
counties) will also be driven by convection that forms along the
cold front and works its way east with time.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Overnight elevated SHRA/TSRA forced by the LLJ will probably be
ongoing at daybreak on Fri, at least over part of the CWA. As the
core of the LLJ shifts northeastward into IL/IN, the greatest
moisture convergence and forcing for pcpn will also shift out of
the CWA. Consequently, there should be a decrease in precipitation
coverage or perhaps even a lull during the mid to late morning
hours on Fri. The absence of widespread precipitation combined
with some breaks in the clouds should be sufficient for afternoon
destabilization across the southeastern one-half to one-third of
the CWA. This detail matters because a trough with a vort max in
its base will be approaching from the west. Large scale ascent
from DCVA as well as lift ahead of the cold front will likely
occur in an environment with H7-H5 lapse rates of 6-7.5 deg C/km
and 40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear as well as nearly
unidirectional wind profiles. These parameters are sufficient for
severe thunderstorms with hail and wind as the primary threats.
Although recent model runs all depict a solution where the cold
front moves through most of the CWA on Fri night and then stalls
in southern MO before lifting northward as a warm front on Sat,
the effective boundary might end up much farther south by Sat
morning depending on outflow boundaries from convection on Fri/Fri
night. If this occurs, then the temperature forecast for Sat may
be too warm. Shortwave ridging aloft is expected on Sat with a
compact vort max moving across southern MN, which is much farther
north than yesterday`s model runs. The H85 LLJ associated with the
vort max moving across MN could produce enough lift over the warm
front to support scattered SHRA/TSRA in MO/IL, especially if
forecast H7-H5 lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km are realized. SHRA/TSRA
are also possible on Sat night due to moisture convergence along a
strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
A new trough develops out west over the weekend, inducing surface
cyclogenesis over the plains and eventually sending another cold
front through MO/IL early next week. Models disagree on how
quickly the trough shifts eastward into the central CONUS, leading
to disagreements on how quickly the cold front moves through the
LSX CWA. It appears that there will be a period of northwest flow
or cyclonic flow during the middle of next week depending on how
the trough evolves. Expect cooler temperatures in such a pattern
with precip chances dependent on shortwaves and moisture
availability.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Have timed the arrival of SHRA/TSRA at all locations this afternoon
based on a combo of extrapolation of regional radar trends as well
as the last few HRRR runs, with the slightly lower conditions (IFR
vsbys, MVFR cigs) along and south of I-70 where the ams should be
able to realize its greatest (albeit modest) destabilization.
Forecast soundings do indicate lower ceilings developing in the
warm sector overnight, and this seems reasonable given cig trends in
the ARLATEX region late last night and earlier this morning. So,
have introduced prevailing MVFR cigs in the 06-09z time frame at
all locations. Greatest unknown may be timing of additional
showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, with
no clear cut trends of this subsequent activity showing up in the
latest guidance. Have attempted to utilize some broad scale model
consensus in introducing next round of activity during the late
night hours and tapering off early Friday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Upstream TSRA activity should arrive around
00z, with IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs in the stronger cells. As mentioned
in the primary aviation AFD, quite a bit of uncertainty on when
the next round of convection will arrive, but for now have gone
with the additional redevelopment during the predawn hours, along
with the development of MVFR cigs in the increasingly moist low
levels of the warm sector. Have ended the second round of
convection early Friday morning, and while there is certainly a
chance of more storms during the late morning and into the
afternoon along the cold front, exact timing and location of this
is still very uncertain at this point. Will refine the timing and
threat of convection with the cold front in later forecasts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1254 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Area of showers and thunderstorms over OK in advance of lead
shortwave should push northeast and effect about the W half of the
FA by 00z...with this trend supported by both extrapolation of
current activity as well as the last several HRRR runs. An uptick
in the intensity of the storms is certainly possible as some
breaks in the morning cloud cover will allow for some modest
destabilization of the AMS over the CWA.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Focus continues to be TSRA thru the period.
Ongoing storms will continue to move newd this morning, with more
development sw of the CWA shud move into the area. Question
remains if these storms will dissipate after sunrise, or if isod
storms will persist thru the morning hours. Regardless, storms are
expected to develop/expand as the dry line moves ewd. With
continued low level WAA and with upper air support, these storms
shud move ewd into the wrn portions of the CWA this afternoon and
overnight. The main question will be how the low level WAA and
cloud cover today will impact the thermal profile over the region.
With heights falling with the main trof approaching, am becoming
increasingly concerned that ongoing storms may not dissipate after
sunrise as these are high based storms. However, if ongoing storms
dissipate, believe mid level lapse rates across much of the
region will be rather steep with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg. Will have
a threat of primarily large hail, especially across wrn portions
of the CWA where more CAPE will be available this afternoon and
this evening.
As for temps, raised temps a couple of degrees since current temps
are still in the lower to mid 70s.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Not much change from the previous forecast.
The cdfnt briefly stalls across the region as the sfc low pulls
nwd thru the Great Lakes region. The fnt will be the focus for
storms as the upper trof moves thru the area. Storms shud be
ongoing at the beginning of the period, but shud move E of the
region during the morning. Questions regarding recovery behind the
first round of storms leads to uncertainty in potential for svr
storms later in the day. However, mdl solns suggest that with
strong WAA, recovery may occur quickly as the upper trof moves
into the region. This shud push the fnt s of the CWA allowing at
least the first half of Sat to remain dry. Mdls are showing a fast
moving system now bringing TSRA to at least the wrn counties late
in the afternoon and pushing ewd into the evening.
For Sun and beyond, pattern becomes more active as a sfc boundary
meanders across the region thru much of the extd period as one
system after another brings chances for precip to the area. With
lower heights progd, temps shud be slightly cooler, likely around
seasonal average. Mdls differ slightly on timing, but the middle
of next week shud be dry for a day or two as large sfc ridge
builds into the region.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Have timed the arrival of SHRA/TSRA at all locations this afternoon
based on a combo of extrapolation of regional radar trends as well
as the last few HRRR runs, with the slightly lower conditions (IFR
vsbys, MVFR cigs) along and south of I-70 where the ams should be
able to realize its greatest (albeit modest) destabilization.
Forecast soundings do indicate lower ceilings developing in the
warm sector overnight, and this seems reasonable given cig trends in
the ARLATEX region late last night and earlier this morning. So,
have introduced prevailing MVFR cigs in the 06-09z time frame at
all locations. Greatest unknown may be timing of additional
showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, with
no clear cut trends of this subsequent activity showing up in the
latest guidance. Have attempted to utilize some broad scale model
consensus in introducing next round of activity duing the late
night hours and tapering off early Friday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Upstream TSRA activity should arrive around
00z, with IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs in the stronger cells. As mentioned
in the primary aviation AFD, quite a bit of uncertainty on when
the next round of convection will arrive, but for now have gone
with the additional redevelopment during the predawn hours, along
with the development of MVFR cigs in the increasinly moist low
levels of the warm sector. Have ended the second round of
convection early Friday morning, and while there is certainly a
chance of more storms during the late morning and into the
afternoon along the cold front, exact timing and location of this
is still very uncertain at this point. Will refine the timing and
threat of convection with the cold front in later forecasts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Area of showers and thunderstorms over OK in advance of lead
shortwave should push northeast and effect about the W half of the
FA by 00z...with this trend supported by both extrapolation of
current activity as well as the last several HRRR runs. An uptick
in the intensity of the storms is certainly possible as some
breaks in the morning cloud cover will allow for some modest
destabilization of the AMS over the CWA.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Focus continues to be TSRA thru the period.
Ongoing storms will continue to move newd this morning, with more
development sw of the CWA shud move into the area. Question
remains if these storms will dissipate after sunrise, or if isod
storms will persist thru the morning hours. Regardless, storms are
expected to develop/expand as the dry line moves ewd. With
continued low level WAA and with upper air support, these storms
shud move ewd into the wrn portions of the CWA this afternoon and
overnight. The main question will be how the low level WAA and
cloud cover today will impact the thermal profile over the region.
With heights falling with the main trof approaching, am becoming
increasingly concerned that ongoing storms may not dissipate after
sunrise as these are high based storms. However, if ongoing storms
dissipate, believe mid level lapse rates across much of the
region will be rather steep with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg. Will have
a threat of primarily large hail, especially across wrn portions
of the CWA where more CAPE will be available this afternoon and
this evening.
As for temps, raised temps a couple of degrees since current temps
are still in the lower to mid 70s.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Not much change from the previous forecast.
The cdfnt briefly stalls across the region as the sfc low pulls
nwd thru the Great Lakes region. The fnt will be the focus for
storms as the upper trof moves thru the area. Storms shud be
ongoing at the beginning of the period, but shud move E of the
region during the morning. Questions regarding recovery behind the
first round of storms leads to uncertainty in potential for svr
storms later in the day. However, mdl solns suggest that with
strong WAA, recovery may occur quickly as the upper trof moves
into the region. This shud push the fnt s of the CWA allowing at
least the first half of Sat to remain dry. Mdls are showing a fast
moving system now bringing TSRA to at least the wrn counties late
in the afternoon and pushing ewd into the evening.
For Sun and beyond, pattern becomes more active as a sfc boundary
meanders across the region thru much of the extd period as one
system after another brings chances for precip to the area. With
lower heights progd, temps shud be slightly cooler, likely around
seasonal average. Mdls differ slightly on timing, but the middle
of next week shud be dry for a day or two as large sfc ridge
builds into the region.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Busy TAF prd with an upper level disturbance affecting the region over
the next 24-36 hrs bringing several chance for precip. Elevated lght
SHRAs will continue for the next several hrs before diminishing with
the demise of the nocturnal LLJ. Have a few more hrs of LLWS to account
for the LLJ. Also, have the precip threat this morning covered with
CSH. Should be VFR conditions for a good portion of the day before
TSTMs dvlp along and ahead of an approaching cold front across wrn MO
later this aftn. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing and placement
of storm initiation...but they are expected to move into the KCOU and
KUIN terminals either late this aftn or early this evng. This activity
is fcst to move east and affect the STL metro sites closer to midnight.
There should be a several hr window of thunder and then a few more hrs
of lght SHRAs before this round of precip comes to an end. The precip
is not expected to last all night...esp at the KCOU terminal Winds should
remain sthrly thru the prd with gusts dvlpng later this mrng and lasting
to early this evng.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected until tonight when a band of SHRAs/TSTMs is
expected to impact the terminal. Widely sctrd very lght SHRAs dot the
area this mrng and have accounted for this with VCSH. Winds will once
again gust from late this aftn to early this evng. Precip tonight should
be winding down by Friday mrng. There is the chance of another round
of TSTMs dvlpng near the terminal just beyond the end of this TAF prd.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Another unseasonably warm night due to strong southwesterly low
level winds and southerly surface winds. There will also be mid-
high level clouds tonight, much of it being high level convective
debris cloudiness from thunderstorms across the Plains. Could not
rule out isolated convection across portions of northeast and
central MO towards morning, but it appears that most of the
showers/thunderstorms will be north and west of our forecast area
late tonight looking at the latest HRRR model run.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
At 19z, a stubborn MCV was continuing to generate SHRA in southern
IL as it slowly made its way E-NE. Almost immediately behind it,
skies clear with full sunshine trying to make up for the cool temps
the clouds provided, with temps now surging into the mid-upper 80s
in central MO, but still stuck in the 70s for a good part of STL
metro and southwest IL. Southerly winds are gusting routinely to 25
mph or more.
A deep upper level TROF is located over the Rockies, with a piece of
energy set to eject from this and move rapidly northeast across
northwest MO late tonight and Thursday morning. Combined with a lo
level jet just to the southwest of central MO, may see a shower or
thunderstorm develop toward daybreak. What develops from there will
have some difficulty advecting northeastward as it moves into an
area with a stronger cap.
A stout southerly wind for most areas will keep temps up, despite
initially clear skies. Prefer the warmer end of MOS as a good
starting point, yielding mins in the mid 60s for most areas, similar
to persistence.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Primary forecast issues include the potential for severe weather
on Thu and/or Fri as well as temperature trends.
Aloft...A strong vort max will lift out of the desert southwest
tonight, reaching western KS/NE by 12z Thu. The position of the
surface low and associated fronts would place the LSX CWA in the
warm sector for most of the day on Thu. As this vort max lifts
northeastward towards the western Great Lakes tomorrow and
tomorrow night, another vort max will enter the western side of
the trough and approach MO/IL on Fri. PW values will rise to +2SD
at times. With the passage of the upper trough on Fri night, flow
aloft becomes quasizonal on Sat, although some models also show a
shortwave that zips through the flow across IA or southern MN. The
flow pattern becomes southwesterly aloft again late this weekend
once a new trough develops out west. Models disagree on whether
this system becomes closed off, but most models do show it moving
across MO/IL on Mon or Tue.
At the surface...One of the interesting features with the Thu/Fri
system is that although the northernmost surface low is forecast
to accompany the the first shortwave and move northeastward, the
development of a secondary surface low back along the cold front
in OK/TX will likely delay the passage of the cold front through
MO/IL until Fri/Fri night when the upper trough moves through.
This front then quickly moves back north as a warm front on Sat.
The thermal and moisture contrast across the boundary should
increase on Sun and Mon due to persistent southerly to
southwesterly flow on the south side of the boundary. This
boundary is forecast to move through the LSX CWA on Mon/Tue as a
cold front, but the 12z models disagree on how quickly the front
moves southeastward.
Severe weather potential for Thu...0-6 km bulk shear vectors are
forecast to be nearly parallel to the H85 boundary in KS on Thu,
suggesting a linear mode for convection farther west. Bulk shear
values remain fairly low across eastern MO through most of the day
before increasing to around 30-40 kts during the late afternoon
and evening hours. The threat for severe weather across the LSX
CWA will depend on how far eastward the initial convection can
progress as well as the extent of cloud cover and whether enough
breaks occur for greatest destabilization during the afternoon and
early evening. Strengthening LLJ and moisture convergence across
the area should support elevated thunderstorms across the area on
Thu night. If an MCS develops, there could be a threat for
damaging winds.
Severe weather potential for Fri...Depending on convective trends
on Thu night into early Fri morning, there may be a severe weather
potential on Fri afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Models depict favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of 6.5 to 8 deg C/km
along with 30-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and increasing lift
ahead of a strong vort max. Models differ on the timing of the
vort max and that detail could be the difference between overnight
convection which persists into the day and enough rain-free hours
for the vort max to initiate a distinct round of convection within
a destabilizing afternoon environment. The threat for severe
weather on Fri would tend to be across the southeast half of the
CWA.
Temperature trends...Expect warm temperatures through Fri followed
by a brief cool-down on Fri night across the northern CWA, perhaps
even as far south as the I-70 corridor. Temperatures warm up again
on Sat and Sun before another cold front moves through on Mon or
Mon night. Expect cooler temperatures for the early and middle
part of next week with northwest surface winds around a high
pressure center over the plains.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Latest radar derived winds at 2000ft AGL are 40kts, so the low
level jet is there and feel LLWS it justified in the TAFs. Think
that dry and VFR conditions will continue until thunderstorm move
into the area late tomorrow afternoon or evening. Some storm could
be severe over central and northeast Missouri capable of producing
hail and strong winds.
Specifics for KSTL: Still expect LLWS conditions through 14Z.
Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions through 00Z. Then
thunderstorms will move into the area with intermittent showers
and thunderstorms at the terminal between 00-12Z.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
101 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MT THROUGH UT TO
AZ. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG EITHER BEHIND OR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 80KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE AND 95KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE AND EJECTING INTO NM/TX. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEB
TO NORTHEAST NEB TO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI/MI. 850MB DRYLINE
EXTENDED FROM TX BIG BEND THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...850MB DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 9-13C RANGE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH 20-25C 700-500MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES FROM UT/AZ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST
KS...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IA...AND
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB INTO
CENTRAL SD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
850MB DRY SECTOR...ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO NORTHEAST KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEB
BY MIDDAY...WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. GIVEN STRONG
FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-FIRE BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT/PSUEDO-DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
UNANIMOUS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY AROUND 18Z...AND THUS
WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CWA OR JUST EAST. NAM REMAINS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND 00Z 4KM WRF ALSO CAME IN FAST AND
KEEPS STORMS EAST OF THE AREA. BUT RAP...GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND
HINTS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MO RIVER AND WITHIN THE CWA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...DEVELOPING
AS SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND THINK STORMS WILL
EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...THINK MAIN RISK
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY GONE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR EVEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CANNOT ABSOLUTELY SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO TORNADOES...BUT
THINK LINEAR FORCING AND QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONCE STORMS EXIT...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUIET AS DRY SLOT
PASSES ACROSS CWA....FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL
NEB...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWIPE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A
QUESTION...BUT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTS MENTION. THOSE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN HANDLING STALLING FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...KEEPING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BE WETTER...WARMER...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
COOLER...NOT QUITE AS WET...AND MORE STABLE. IN BOTH CASES...MODELS
SLIDE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COOL RAIN AREA POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS DROPPED THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP POPS IN FOR MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF PULLS PRECIP
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD ONWARD. GFS AND ECMWF SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WAVES DURING VARYING PERIODS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE WEAKLY FORCED AND POORLY RESOLVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXHIBIT NO CONSISTENCY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS. LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AT ALL THREE
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 23Z AS SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR OR
IFR CIGS AND VSBY WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ITO THE KOFK AREA THROUGH 22Z AND KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAFFING HAS BEEN REARRANGED AS OF 1030 AM. THIS FCSTR WILL BE
DOING THE ENTIRE FCST. WE HAVE SENT A TWO-MAN TEAM TO SRN SHERMAN
COUNTY TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAMAGE FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL.
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE...PRIMARILY TO SKY COVER AND POPS TO
BETTER DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOT OF
SUN FROM THE TRI-CITIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FCST IS NOW DRY
THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE 09Z SREF AND 13Z HI-RES RAP.
THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THE COOLER TEMPS AND SLOWER EXPECTED WARM-UP UNDER THE
STRATUS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE RAP SKY COVER TRIES TO
ERODE THE SE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
HEADING E AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING KEARNEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND FURTHER SHORT-TERM CLOUDIER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE FIRST OF THE 3 MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS START WITH
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE INVADING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GET TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD ONLY
REALIZE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-28 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH. THIRDLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT PATCHY LATE-SEASON FROST COULD TRY DEVELOPING VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED INTO
THE 34-36 RANGE...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP GIVEN THAT THE
LENGTH OF TIME WITH TEMPS THAT LOW IS FAIRLY BRIEF AND THAT
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP AROUND 5 IF NOT 10 MPH DURING THAT
TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RELEGATE ANY FROST TO LOW-
LYING...SHELTERED AREAS IF IT FORMS AS ALL...AND AGAIN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULDN/T SEE ANY FROST THREAT AT ALL DESPITE
THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPS.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AND STARTING WITH A BRIEF LOOK
BACK...IT WAS A SOMEWHAT MORE-ACTIVE-THAN-EXPECTED EVENING WITH
ONE PARTICULARLY SEVERE SUPERCELL PASSING ALONG A CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM DAWSON-HOWARD COUNTY...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM CLIPPED EASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OR
STRONG EVIDENCE OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PHOTOS SUGGEST GUSTNADOES MAY HAVE KICKED UP SOME BLOWING
DUST. STAY TUNED FOR LIKELY ADDITIONAL REPORTS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING WERE
WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO...BY FAR THE WORST OF THE
STORMS ONLY CLIPPED THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
COUNTIES REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AS OF 11Z/5 AM...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...AS ACTIVITY
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OF A
DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEB/CO/KS BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...SEPARATING PREVAILING NORTHERLY-EASTERLY
BREEZES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO ITS SOUTH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR KS ZONES. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND
WHETHER HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...AS THE
RESOUNDING MESSAGE OF MOST MODELS IS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH ITS CENTER REACHING
NORTHERN SD BY SUNSET...WHILE A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES UP INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY...REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY...AND
SOUTHWEST MN BY SUNSET. AS THIS LOW PASSES BY...BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP COULD SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW SUSTAINED 28 MPH. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE PRESENT LACK OF FORCING WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT...THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 OR HIGHER J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AND ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO
RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS YET THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE IS LOOKING QUITE UNLIKELY...WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND THE LATE-MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN CASE THE VERY BEGINNING STAGES OF WHAT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CWA HAPPENS
TO CATCH THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
FORM...HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. BEYOND THE EARLY AFTERNOON 18Z TIME FRAME HOWEVER...ITS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT
STORMS...AND ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE VERY MARGINAL STORM THREAT...PROBABLY
THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY ALBEIT NOT GREAT WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MIGRATING FROM WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT GRADIENT AND HAVE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 50S
FAR WEST...NEAR-70 CENTRAL AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR EAST.
FORTUNATELY DESPITE THE WINDS...FIRE DANGER IS HELD IN CHECK BY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING UP IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL NEED CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS HAPPEN TO
CLIP THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN STEADILY DECREASING
BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...STEADY SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. BECAUSE WINDS ARE REALLY NEVER EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY DROP
BELOW 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR TEMP-CRASH...BUT
DID NUDGE DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR MID 30S FAR
NORTHWEST...NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FROST SETUP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BUT FELT A TOKEN PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COULDN/T HURT...ESPECIALLY
IF TEMPS HAPPEN TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY MIDDAY. AFTER STARTING OUT CHILLY IN THE MORNING...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR PCPN IN THE DRIER AIRMASS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHC
IN WAA WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADVANCING COOL FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY/MILD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SATURDAY PCPN CHCS RETURN BUT HOW MUCH
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHES OUR REGION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE PATTERN
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN THE
ROCKIES. UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE MEAN
FLOW WOULD LIFT THIS AREA OF PCPN NORTHEASTWARD AND OUR NW ZONES MAY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND THE LLVL JET IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FRONTAL POSITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.
HEADING INTO MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW CLOSES IN THE SC
ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
WITH THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW FILLING WITH TIME. OVERALL A
COOL...CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WILL SETTLE IN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. DID
LOWER SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE INIT...BUT
THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
REGION IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A GRADUAL TREND UP IN TEMPS
AROUND MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA IS DRAGGING A MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS A 020-025 CEILINGS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO GRI. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE ERODING
AS IT APPROACHES GRI SO I AM GOING TO START OFF WITH A SCT SKY.
IF A MVFR CEILING DOES SETUP IT SHOULD ONLY LINGER A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW MOVES TO THE NE AND DRAGS THE CLOUDS WITH IT.
TOMORROW MORNING I PUT A HINT OF SOME STRATUS. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT IT AND CURRENTLY WILL JUST PUT FEW IN COVERAGE. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 28KTS. THE WINDS WILL TAPER BACK DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. VIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BEDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1152 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM
LXN-ODX. RECEIVED A REPORT FROM AN OBSERVER AND ODX REPORTED -RA
AT 1622Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAFFING HAS BEEN REARRANGED AS OF 1030 AM. THIS FCSTR WILL BE
DOING THE ENTIRE FCST. WE HAVE SENT A TWO-MAN TEAM TO SRN SHERMAN
COUNTY TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAMAGE FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL.
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE...PRIMARILY TO SKY COVER AND POPS TO
BETTER DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOT OF
SUN FROM THE TRI-CITIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FCST IS NOW DRY
THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE 09Z SREF AND 13Z HI-RES RAP.
THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THE COOLER TEMPS AND SLOWER EXPECTED WARM-UP UNDER THE
STRATUS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE RAP SKY COVER TRIES TO
ERODE THE SE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
HEADING E AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING KEARNEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND FURTHER SHORT-TERM CLOUDIER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE FIRST OF THE 3 MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS START WITH
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE INVADING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GET TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD ONLY
REALIZE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-28 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH. THIRDLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT PATCHY LATE-SEASON FROST COULD TRY DEVELOPING VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED INTO
THE 34-36 RANGE...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP GIVEN THAT THE
LENGTH OF TIME WITH TEMPS THAT LOW IS FAIRLY BRIEF AND THAT
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP AROUND 5 IF NOT 10 MPH DURING THAT
TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RELEGATE ANY FROST TO LOW-
LYING...SHELTERED AREAS IF IT FORMS AS ALL...AND AGAIN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULDN/T SEE ANY FROST THREAT AT ALL DESPITE
THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPS.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AND STARTING WITH A BRIEF LOOK
BACK...IT WAS A SOMEWHAT MORE-ACTIVE-THAN-EXPECTED EVENING WITH
ONE PARTICULARLY SEVERE SUPERCELL PASSING ALONG A CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM DAWSON-HOWARD COUNTY...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM CLIPPED EASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OR
STRONG EVIDENCE OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PHOTOS SUGGEST GUSTNADOES MAY HAVE KICKED UP SOME BLOWING
DUST. STAY TUNED FOR LIKELY ADDITIONAL REPORTS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING WERE
WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO...BY FAR THE WORST OF THE
STORMS ONLY CLIPPED THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
COUNTIES REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AS OF 11Z/5 AM...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...AS ACTIVITY
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OF A
DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEB/CO/KS BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...SEPARATING PREVAILING NORTHERLY-EASTERLY
BREEZES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO ITS SOUTH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR KS ZONES. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND
WHETHER HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...AS THE
RESOUNDING MESSAGE OF MOST MODELS IS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH ITS CENTER REACHING
NORTHERN SD BY SUNSET...WHILE A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES UP INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY...REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY...AND
SOUTHWEST MN BY SUNSET. AS THIS LOW PASSES BY...BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP COULD SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW SUSTAINED 28 MPH. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE PRESENT LACK OF FORCING WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT...THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 OR HIGHER J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AND ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO
RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS YET THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE IS LOOKING QUITE UNLIKELY...WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND THE LATE-MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN CASE THE VERY BEGINNING STAGES OF WHAT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CWA HAPPENS
TO CATCH THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
FORM...HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. BEYOND THE EARLY AFTERNOON 18Z TIME FRAME HOWEVER...ITS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT
STORMS...AND ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE VERY MARGINAL STORM THREAT...PROBABLY
THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY ALBEIT NOT GREAT WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MIGRATING FROM WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT GRADIENT AND HAVE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 50S
FAR WEST...NEAR-70 CENTRAL AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR EAST.
FORTUNATELY DESPITE THE WINDS...FIRE DANGER IS HELD IN CHECK BY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING UP IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL NEED CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS HAPPEN TO
CLIP THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN STEADILY DECREASING
BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...STEADY SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. BECAUSE WINDS ARE REALLY NEVER EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY DROP
BELOW 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR TEMP-CRASH...BUT
DID NUDGE DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR MID 30S FAR
NORTHWEST...NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FROST SETUP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BUT FELT A TOKEN PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COULDN/T HURT...ESPECIALLY
IF TEMPS HAPPEN TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY MIDDAY. AFTER STARTING OUT CHILLY IN THE MORNING...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR PCPN IN THE DRIER AIRMASS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHC
IN WAA WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADVANCING COOL FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY/MILD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SATURDAY PCPN CHCS RETURN BUT HOW MUCH
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHES OUR REGION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE PATTERN
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN THE
ROCKIES. UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE MEAN
FLOW WOULD LIFT THIS AREA OF PCPN NORTHEASTWARD AND OUR NW ZONES MAY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND THE LLVL JET IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FRONTAL POSITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.
HEADING INTO MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW CLOSES IN THE SC
ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
WITH THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW FILLING WITH TIME. OVERALL A
COOL...CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WILL SETTLE IN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. DID
LOWER SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE INIT...BUT
THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
REGION IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A GRADUAL TREND UP IN TEMPS
AROUND MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION COULD STILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...IT HASN/T HAPPENED AS OF YET...AND THUS WILL GO WITH A
PREVAILING LOW-END VFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AND DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY SHOULD
REALLY BE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE AS A PRONOUNCED CHANGE IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED OCCURS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. IN
GENERAL...AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-DAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST
POTENTIAL OF MAINLY 30-35KT TARGETING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING AT OR BELOW 12KT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAFFING HAS BEEN REARRANGED AS OF 1030 AM. THIS FCSTR WILL BE
DOING THE ENTIRE FCST. WE HAVE SENT A TWO-MAN TEAM TO SRN SHERMAN
COUNTY TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAMAGE FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL.
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE...PRIMARILY TO SKY COVER AND POPS TO
BETTER DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOT OF
SUN FROM THE TRI-CITIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FCST IS NOW DRY
THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE 09Z SREF AND 13Z HI-RES RAP.
THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THE COOLER TEMPS AND SLOWER EXPECTED WARM-UP UNDER THE
STRATUS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE RAP SKY COVER TRIES TO
ERODE THE SE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
HEADING E AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING KEARNEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND FURTHER SHORT-TERM CLOUDIER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE FIRST OF THE 3 MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS START WITH
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE INVADING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GET TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD ONLY
REALIZE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-28 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH. THIRDLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT PATCHY LATE-SEASON FROST COULD TRY DEVELOPING VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED INTO
THE 34-36 RANGE...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP GIVEN THAT THE
LENGTH OF TIME WITH TEMPS THAT LOW IS FAIRLY BRIEF AND THAT
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP AROUND 5 IF NOT 10 MPH DURING THAT
TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RELEGATE ANY FROST TO LOW-
LYING...SHELTERED AREAS IF IT FORMS AS ALL...AND AGAIN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULDN/T SEE ANY FROST THREAT AT ALL DESPITE
THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPS.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AND STARTING WITH A BRIEF LOOK
BACK...IT WAS A SOMEWHAT MORE-ACTIVE-THAN-EXPECTED EVENING WITH
ONE PARTICULARLY SEVERE SUPERCELL PASSING ALONG A CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM DAWSON-HOWARD COUNTY...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM CLIPPED EASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OR
STRONG EVIDENCE OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PHOTOS SUGGEST GUSTNADOES MAY HAVE KICKED UP SOME BLOWING
DUST. STAY TUNED FOR LIKELY ADDITIONAL REPORTS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING WERE
WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO...BY FAR THE WORST OF THE
STORMS ONLY CLIPPED THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
COUNTIES REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AS OF 11Z/5 AM...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...AS ACTIVITY
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OF A
DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEB/CO/KS BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...SEPARATING PREVAILING NORTHERLY-EASTERLY
BREEZES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO ITS SOUTH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR KS ZONES. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND
WHETHER HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...AS THE
RESOUNDING MESSAGE OF MOST MODELS IS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH ITS CENTER REACHING
NORTHERN SD BY SUNSET...WHILE A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES UP INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY...REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY...AND
SOUTHWEST MN BY SUNSET. AS THIS LOW PASSES BY...BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP COULD SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW SUSTAINED 28 MPH. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE PRESENT LACK OF FORCING WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT...THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 OR HIGHER J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AND ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO
RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS YET THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE IS LOOKING QUITE UNLIKELY...WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND THE LATE-MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN CASE THE VERY BEGINNING STAGES OF WHAT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CWA HAPPENS
TO CATCH THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
FORM...HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. BEYOND THE EARLY AFTERNOON 18Z TIME FRAME HOWEVER...ITS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT
STORMS...AND ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE VERY MARGINAL STORM THREAT...PROBABLY
THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY ALBEIT NOT GREAT WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MIGRATING FROM WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT GRADIENT AND HAVE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 50S
FAR WEST...NEAR-70 CENTRAL AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR EAST.
FORTUNATELY DESPITE THE WINDS...FIRE DANGER IS HELD IN CHECK BY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING UP IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL NEED CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS HAPPEN TO
CLIP THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN STEADILY DECREASING
BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...STEADY SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. BECAUSE WINDS ARE REALLY NEVER EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY DROP
BELOW 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR TEMP-CRASH...BUT
DID NUDGE DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR MID 30S FAR
NORTHWEST...NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FROST SETUP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BUT FELT A TOKEN PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COULDN/T HURT...ESPECIALLY
IF TEMPS HAPPEN TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY MIDDAY. AFTER STARTING OUT CHILLY IN THE MORNING...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR PCPN IN THE DRIER AIRMASS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHC
IN WAA WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADVANCING COOL FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY/MILD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SATURDAY PCPN CHCS RETURN BUT HOW MUCH
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHES OUR REGION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE PATTERN
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN THE
ROCKIES. UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE MEAN
FLOW WOULD LIFT THIS AREA OF PCPN NORTHEASTWARD AND OUR NW ZONES MAY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND THE LLVL JET IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FRONTAL POSITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.
HEADING INTO MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW CLOSES IN THE SC
ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
WITH THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW FILLING WITH TIME. OVERALL A
COOL...CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WILL SETTLE IN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. DID
LOWER SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE INIT...BUT
THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
REGION IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A GRADUAL TREND UP IN TEMPS
AROUND MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION COULD STILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...IT HASN/T HAPPENED AS OF YET...AND THUS WILL GO WITH A
PREVAILING LOW-END VFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AND DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY SHOULD
REALLY BE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE AS A PRONOUNCED CHANGE IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED OCCURS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. IN
GENERAL...AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-DAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST
POTENTIAL OF MAINLY 30-35KT TARGETING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING AT OR BELOW 12KT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MT THROUGH UT TO
AZ. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG EITHER BEHIND OR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 80KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE AND 95KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE AND EJECTING INTO NM/TX. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEB
TO NORTHEAST NEB TO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI/MI. 850MB DRYLINE
EXTENDED FROM TX BIG BEND THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...850MB DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 9-13C RANGE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH 20-25C 700-500MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES FROM UT/AZ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST
KS...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IA...AND
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB INTO
CENTRAL SD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
850MB DRY SECTOR...ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO NORTHEAST KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEB
BY MIDDAY...WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. GIVEN STRONG
FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-FIRE BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT/PSUEDO-DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
UNANIMOUS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY AROUND 18Z...AND THUS
WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CWA OR JUST EAST. NAM REMAINS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND 00Z 4KM WRF ALSO CAME IN FAST AND
KEEPS STORMS EAST OF THE AREA. BUT RAP...GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND
HINTS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MO RIVER AND WITHIN THE CWA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...DEVELOPING
AS SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND THINK STORMS WILL
EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...THINK MAIN RISK
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY GONE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR EVEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CANNOT ABSOLUTELY SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO TORNADOES...BUT
THINK LINEAR FORCING AND QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONCE STORMS EXIT...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUIET AS DRY SLOT
PASSES ACROSS CWA....FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL
NEB...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWIPE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A
QUESTION...BUT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTS MENTION. THOSE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN HANDLING STALLING FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...KEEPING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BE WETTER...WARMER...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
COOLER...NOT QUITE AS WET...AND MORE STABLE. IN BOTH CASES...MODELS
SLIDE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COOL RAIN AREA POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS DROPPED THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP POPS IN FOR MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF PULLS PRECIP
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD ONWARD. GFS AND ECMWF SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WAVES DURING VARYING PERIODS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE WEAKLY FORCED AND POORLY RESOLVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXHIBIT NO CONSISTENCY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS. LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS FROM WRN NEBR INTO SD TODAY LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NERN NEBR BY MIDDAY. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
BRING SCT TSTMS TO ERN NEBR...POSSIBLY IN NERN NEBR LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG A COLD FRONT/DRY-
LINE NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER BY EARLY/MID AFTN. FELT MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WOULD EITHER BE N OF LNK BY MIDDAY WITH AFTN DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF THERE SO NO MENTION WAS MADE AT KLNK WITH 12Z
FORECAST. CONVECTION EARLIER HAD CREATED A VARIABLE WIND FIELD AT
TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ESTIMATED JUST PUSHING
THROUGH KOFK AT 11Z. AS LOW MOVES INTO NERN NEBR WINDS SHOULD
TURN S THEN SW AND GUST AT KLNK/KOMA. HOWEVER...LOW TRACK +
CURRENT FRONT PUTS KOFK IN UNCERTAIN TRENDS AND THUS A VARIABLE
WIND GROUP WAS CARRIED THERE LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL FRONT/DRY-
LINE PUSHES THROUGH FOR GOOD THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE INTO
KOFK VICINITY THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...THEY COULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THAT
SITE. A BAND OF DEVELOPING STRATOCU FROM SW-NW OF LINCOLN AT 1030Z
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KOMA/KLNK TO INCLUDE OUTSIDE OF
TSTMS JUST YET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MT THROUGH UT TO
AZ. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG EITHER BEHIND OR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 80KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE AND 95KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE AND EJECTING INTO NM/TX. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRNOT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEB TO
NORTHEAST NEB TO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI/MI. 850MB DRYLINE
EXTENDED FROM TX BIG BEND THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...850MB DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE 9-13C RANGE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH 20-25C 700-500MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FROM UT/AZ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS...WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NEB AND
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IA...AND INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL SD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE 850MB DRY SECTOR...ALONG
AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO
NORTHEAST KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEB
BY MIDDAY...WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. GIVEN STRONG
FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-FIRE BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT/PSUEDO-DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
UNANIMOUS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY AROUND 18Z...AND THUS
WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CWA OR JUST EAST. NAM REMAINS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND 00Z 4KM WRF ALSO CAME IN FAST AND
KEEPS STORMS EAST OF THE AREA. BUT RAP...GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND
HINTS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MO RIVER AND WITHIN THE CWA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...DEVELOPING
AS SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND THINK STORMS WILL
EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...THINK MAIN RISK
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY GONE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR EVEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CANNOT ABSOLUTELY SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO TORNADOES...BUT
THINK LINEAR FORCING AND QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONCE STORMS EXIT...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUIET AS DRY SLOT
PASSES ACROSS CWA....FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL
NEB...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWIPE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A
QUESTION...BUT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTS MENTION. THOSE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN HANDLING STALLING FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...KEEPING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BE WETTER...WARMER...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
COOLER...NOT QUITE AS WET...AND MORE STABLE. IN BOTH CASES...MODELS
SLIDE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COOL RAIN AREA POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS DROPPED THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP POPS IN FOR MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF PULLS PRECIP
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD ONWARD. GFS AND EMCWF SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WAVES DURING VARYING PERIODS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE WEAKLY FORCED AND POORLY RESOLVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXHIBIT NO CONSISTENCY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS. LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS SO CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES BEFORE 12Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND CREATE A FEW
WIND SHIFTS FOR THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
NEARING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO NOTED EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS ENHANCED
FLOW THEN SPLITS INTO TWO BRANCHES...WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS
WELL AS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION IS NOTED MOVING FROM WEST-TEXAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY
LINE IS NOTED EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW
AND AS OF 20Z WAS NOTED FROM NEAR KBIE...TO NEAR KCNK...TO NEAR
KGBD. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWESTERN
CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRY LINE...HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST...WITH THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST...AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT
WAVE...FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THUS
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESULTANT OMEGA TO OUR NORTHWEST AS
WELL. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE
HRRR...1KM WRF-ARW...1KM WRF-NMM AND 4KM WRF-NMM. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM SOME SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD BRUSH OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
WANT TO MONITOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CASE IT TRIES TO MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTION COULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE DRY LINE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SINCE
THIS DRY LINE HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA ANY RESULTANT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE INTO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~60KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THIS JET APPEAR AS THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS
...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND
1KM WRF-ARW. COVERAGE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST
AND THUS DID NOT WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20% POP FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THE MOST PART.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING POPS ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT EXTREME
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST COULD ALSO OBSERVE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS
OUR EXTREME EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM
AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST PARCELS ROOTED TO AROUND 800MB WILL
HAVE ~1000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY WITH MINIMAL CIN. DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SO
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DOES NOT SEEM OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FOR TONIGHT IN THE
HWO. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER OUR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA SO WENT AHEAD
WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THAT WAY. ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE INTRUSION OF A DRIER
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL LIKELY PREVENT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FROM CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE 1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR COULD APPROACH 50KTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...THUS PROMOTING A COOLER DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALOFT: MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FROM THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOW
THAT THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE WRN USA THRU MON
5/12...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN USA. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL EXIT E OF THE REGION FRI...TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING THE WRN
USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL
DROP INTO THE WRN TROF SAT...RESULTING IN RE-AMPLIFICATION SUN-
MON. BY THIS TIME FRAME...THE USUAL MODEL BIASES APPEAR WITH THE
06Z/12Z GFS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP...AND THE
00Z/12Z GEM ON THE SLOWEST SIDE. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC DO
FAVOR THE SLOWER GEM. EVEN THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE UKMET COINCIDE
WITH THE GEM. THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR RAINFALL. THIS RENEWED TROF
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS TUE AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA WED-FRI
WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
THE TROF MOVING INTO THE W SAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE TROF E INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE ENERGY
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL SLIP S INTO THE REGION THU
NIGHT WITH THE COOL FRONT DEPARTING FURTHER TO THE S AND E. A NEW
LEE SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP FRI...WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ADVANCING
THRU THE NRN PLAINS FRI-SAT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH/. THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU HERE FRI
NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUN AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE W...AND CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THE FRONT...ACROSS KANSAS CITY
MON MORNING...AND SHOULD BE OVER IL BY 00Z/TUE BASED ON THE 00Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES WILL ENVELOP THE PLAINS TUE-
WED.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX...THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRI-WED...WITH VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 DAY OF
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. RIGHT NOW IT/S MON. ANOTHER VERY
GOOD ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE EXITING COOL FRONT WILL NOT
PLUNGE DEEP INTO THE S. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THE
LOW WILL ALSO BE TRACKING S OF THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
BENEFICIAL/SOAKING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS REALLY
ISNT MODELED YET...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH THE FRONT
HAVING ANABATIC CHARACTER.
THE 16Z WPC EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION WAS REVIEWED.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN S-SE OF THE TRI-
CITIES. DOESNT CURRENTLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME SUN-MON.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: CLEARING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
FRI NIGHT: INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEGATIVE TILT NRN
PLAINS TROF MOVES THRU ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT
TROPOPAUSE JET.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED SPRINKLES HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF I-80. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE NO LOWER THAN 10K FT. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN.
SAT: MORNING COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CHANCE OF MORNING
SHWRS/TSTMS WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST AND REPLACED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THEN CLEARING AND A
LITTLE WARMER.
SAT NIGHT: A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL INDUCE STRONG
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH THE LLJ VEERING THRU THE NIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO BE E OF THE FCST AREA.
SUN-MON: LOTS OF DETAILS LEFT TO BE DETERMINED. BELIEVE ODDS ARE
VERY HIGH OUR CURRENT HIGH TEMPS ARE WAY TOO WARM BOTH DAYS. WE
ARE BASICALLY CARRYING 60-70F. CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST
50S AND THIS LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
BLUSTERY N WINDS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
TUE: DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NW FLOW ALOFT.
WED: NW FLOW MAY DELIVER A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
HAVE LARGELY MAINTAINED THE SAME EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS AS PORTRAYED BY THE PREVIOUS TAF...ALTHOUGH WILL STATE UP
FRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OR EVEN FORMATION OF MVFR
CEILING IS STILL A BIT SHAKY...AS MANY MODEL/GUIDANCE SETS HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL IN THIS DEPARTMENT OF LATE. IN
SHORT...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT VFR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING THROUGH FROM SOUTH-NORTH. UNLESS COVERAGE AND/OR
INTENSITY INCREASES NOTICEABLY...HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A GENERIC
VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION FOR NOW. GOING FORWARD...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE 10Z-15Z TIME FRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MVFR CEILING...WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO VFR AND/OR SCATTERS OUT
BY MID-LATE MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MVFR SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD IS LOOKING DRY UNLESS A ROGUE SHOWER/SPRINKLE HAPPENS
TO SKIRT BY ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS WELL TO THE NORTH
AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF KGRI. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY WILL
ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL
PREVAIL...WHICH THEN AT LEAST BRIEFLY SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND SHIFTING TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL OF MAINLY 30-35KT
TARGETING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHEAST WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WERE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THERE...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
90S ALSO SEEN/EXPECTED. IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA...DEEPER MIXING WAS
OCCURRING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WERE DRYING LOW
LEVELS AND BOOSTING TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT WERE NOSING INTO JEFFERSON/SALINE COUNTIES AS OF 2 PM...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST ACROSS RED FLAG WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE EVENING.
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION WERE OF NOTE AT EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. CONGESTUS-LOOKING
CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO IGNITE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CLOUD
TOP COOLING ALGORITHMS WERE SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THOSE
CLOUDS TO CONVECT. BUT IF THEY DO...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY RIDE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS
NOTED OVER THIS AREA...SO THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE NOTHING WILL
GO CLOSE TO OUR AREA...FOCUSING ACTIVITY MORE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE INHIBITION IS LOW.
KANSAS POTENTIAL CONVECTION WAS BUBBLING UP UNDER INCREASING MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 90S.
DRYLINE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ADDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
THE MIX. ALSO OF NOTE...MESOSCALE MODELS RAP AND HRRR ALONG WITH
NAM12 EVENTUALLY BUBBLE CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOVE THAT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE INTERACTION WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL. CINH IS LOWERING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE DEW POINTS HAD ONLY MIXED INTO THE 50S...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE. SO GIVEN INSTABILITY...FRONT IN THE AREA...AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL DATA FIRING CONVECTION...WILL ADD AT LEAST
SMALL POPS TO MOST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE...WITH AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
THEN LATER TONIGHT...STORMS FIRING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REGION
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANY MORNING STORMS TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID MORNING BEFORE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MARCHING EAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. VARYING MODEL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
STILL APPARENT...BUT WERE BETTER IN LINE SHOWING BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AT TIME OF MAX HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WEST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND CLOSE TO 50KT OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL RESIDE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO FIRE. STORMS WILL RACE NORTHEAST AS FRONT
PUSHES EAST...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR THOSE AREAS. SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND EXITING FRONT...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVE INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. AS WAVE TRACKS EAST ON
SATURDAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE
MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY...THEN PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BUT ALL POINT TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AT LEAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING-TYPE SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH FOCUSING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD. SO HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD BRING ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS SO CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES BEFORE 12Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND CREATE A FEW
WIND SHIFTS FOR THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
418 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER AND
PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 400 AM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) TRACKING ALONG A SHARP 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH
IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE STEADIEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD JUST CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NORTH OF THIS MAY GET A SHORT LIVED SHOWER...WITH AREAS LAKE ONTARIO
NORTHWARD EXPECTED TO STAY DRY.
ONLY A PORTION OF NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE MCV...WITH
THE HRRR PROVIDING THE MOST USEFUL FORECAST SINCE IT INITIALIZES
THIS FEATURE BEST. THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WSW...DROPPING
OUT OF THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING A LULL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A SHOWER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE NE FLOW ALREADY
NORTH OF THE STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF DROPPING
TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT COULD
SPARK A SHOWER ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE/WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT) COUPLED WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
AMPLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPES RISING UPWARDS TO 500 TO 1000
J/KG AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LI`S FALL BELOW 0C
THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING AND LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BEING MORE THAN YOUR GARDEN VARIETY. PWATS
UPWARDS TOWARDS AN INCH AND A HALF ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL FEED SUCH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY DROP BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...THOUGH WITH THE AIRMASS BEGINNING TO
BECOME MOIST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GREATER RAINFALL EVENT.
WITH THE WET GROUND AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL RISE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA AROUND +12 TO 14C FRIDAY.
THIS WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS...ALONG WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK
CAP ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING AN EARLY SUMMER LIKE FEEL TO THE
AIR WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WARMER
SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND GENESEE VALLEY. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THERE WILL BE A TOUCH OF
HUMIDITY TO THE AIR ON FRIDAY.
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL A COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
RETURN TO THE REGION. WE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION. THE LIKELY POPS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
BRING THIS COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END AS A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY WILL AID IN BRINGING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND/JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS COMBINED WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT LEADING INTO MOTHER`S DAY WITH INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN FOR SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS MOISTURE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY BUT FEEL THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA AGAIN WARM...UPWARDS TO 13
TO +15C WHICH WILL BRING AGAIN WARMTH TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GO
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS POSSIBLY A DAYTIME
CAP/INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. THE SUNSHINE THOUGH SHOULD
AGAIN ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARMTH INTO
WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 08Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CLIP SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD EXIT 10Z-12Z...AND BRING A LULL
IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING. EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. A NE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT JHW WHICH IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND COULD GET AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG
SURFACE WINDS OR COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
155 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
REMAINING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ NOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS...WITH ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN LIKELY. NORTH OF
THIS...IT IS MUCH DRIER WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. FURTHER NORTH SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AS THE TRAJECTORY
OF DISTURBANCE IS WSW WHICH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF MOST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE HRRR PROVIDES REASONABLE GUIDANCE ON THIS
FEATURE...WITH MANY OTHER MODELS LIKELY TO BE TOO SLOW OR TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE FEATURE.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
PUSH TO MOVE IT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE EARLY IN
THE DAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV EXITS...AND THEN AGAIN LATER
IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY WARMER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WHERE HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. AN ENE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AS WE
OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR SAID CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM BRINGING
IN AN EARLY EVENING ROUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
DISPLACED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS CONSENSUS IS HIGHER ACROSS THIS
REGION. WITH WARM MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY SUMMER-LIKE AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST.
IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY END TO THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. AS 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB TOWARDS +14C...SURFACE READINGS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S
WITH TYPICALLY WARMER AREAS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER
BREACHING THE 80 DEGREE THRESHOLD. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAK
OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...WITH PWATS CLIMBING OVER 1.5 INCHES...MANY AREAS COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AS THE MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WV WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING TO THE NE INTO ONTARIO
CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES W/SHRA AND TS SATURDAY. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY W/PRIMARILY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT AS A WK WAVE WILL
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MORE UNSETTLE WX MON THRU
WED AS A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PLANS INTERACTS WITH A BROAD SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRAW UP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE W/SHRA
AND TS DURING THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ARE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE EIRE...AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO JHW...AND
PROBABLY BUF/IAG AS WELL. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT
AT BUF/IAG...BUT MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR SO IN BRIEF
MODERATE RAINS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WOULD KEEP TSTMS SOUTH OF JHW...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
THIS SHOULD EXIT 10Z-12Z...AND BRING A LULL IN THE ACTION THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. A NE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWERS AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT JHW WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH
AND COULD GET AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...WAVES
WILL REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS ON THE LAKES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS OR
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHOWERS TAKING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD TREND AS THEY BEGIN TO
MOVE TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS THE WEST. NEW NAM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH CENTRAL AFTER NOON SATURDAY WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP LIMITED
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA LIKELY WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...BUT A BIT
SLOWER. ADJUSTED THIS TO A MORE MID EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH
INITIALLY LOW POPS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL USE FOR
PRECIPITATION DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
STATE.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT...LATEST 17 UTC HRRR AND 18 UTC RAP ARE INDICATING BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT MAKING IT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR AFTER. BY THIS TIME THINK THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.
SATURDAY...A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE EJECTING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW AND ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
AN ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO SATURDAY...MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PUTTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE WEST SUNDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH FROM CANADA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE EAST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A SFC LOW.
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE EAST ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOME LOCATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WED-FRI WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES AND THE UPPER
JET ALOFT CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
AT 9 PM CDT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA NOW BETWEEN
MILES CITY AND BAKER MONTANA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER 17Z ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(KISN).
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA LIKELY WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...BUT A BIT
SLOWER. ADJUSTED THIS TO A MORE MID EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH
INITIALLY LOW POPS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL USE FOR
PRECIPITATION DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
STATE.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT...LATEST 17 UTC HRRR AND 18 UTC RAP ARE INDICATING BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT MAKING IT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR AFTER. BY THIS TIME THINK THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.
SATURDAY...A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE EJECTING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW AND ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
AN ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO SATURDAY...MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PUTTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE WEST SUNDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH FROM CANADA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE EAST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A SFC LOW.
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE EAST ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOME LOCATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WED-FRI WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES AND THE UPPER
JET ALOFT CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
AT 6 PM CDT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY AFTER 17Z ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
130 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST POPS
AND CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN TO THE LATEST OBSERVED RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1825 UTC. EXPECT RAINFALL THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE CONFINED TO A LINE FROM
SELFRIDGE TO BISMARCK AND RUGBY AND POINTS EAST...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 16-17 UTC RAP/HRRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC BLENDED WITH THE 12-13 UTC
RAP WHICH HAS CAPTURED NEAR TO SHORT TERM POP TRENDS WELL THUS
FAR. DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
GRANT COUNTY...SOUTHERN MORTON AND WESTERN SIOUX COUNTIES WITH
ONLY A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY WITH NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS IN RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST 04 UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC BLENDED WITH THE 12-13 UTC
RAP WHICH HAS CAPTURED NEAR TO SHORT TERM POP TRENDS WELL THUS
FAR. DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
GRANT COUNTY...SOUTHERN MORTON AND WESTERN SIOUX COUNTIES WITH
ONLY A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY WITH NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT KBIS IN RAIN AND STRATUS...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN...FOG AND STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY WITH NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A PERSISTENT AND LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KBIS AND
KJMS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KBIS THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. AT
KJMS...LIFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL LIFT TO IFR CIGS
BY MID MORNING. EXPECT IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AT KJMS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL END AT KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
FRIDAY AND BY AROUND 10Z AT KJMS. KISN/KMOT/KDIK WILL REMAIN IN VFR
STATUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
KBIS AND KJMS WILL BE THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE THE LOWEST CIGS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD...WHILE KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPINGE ON KBIS AND KJMS BY
12Z AND A VCSH HAS BEEN UTILIZED BEFORE THE TRUE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. KBIS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES...WHILE
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AT KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY WITH LOW VFR CIGS COMMENCING
THEREAFTER. KJMS WILL BE IN THE RAIN AREA AND IFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ENHANCING
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...INDICATING DEEP VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY
FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SPRAWLED OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS WELL
AND LIFTS THIS INITIAL BAND NORTH...BUT WEAKENS IT AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL BORDER BY 08Z-09Z. DESPITE THIS...STILL
EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO FOLLOW
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ADJUSTED POPS/TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND REGIONAL RADAR...OTHERWISE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A SHORT PERIOD (3-5) HOUR
SLIGHT CHANCE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TOO STABLE
FOR CONVECTION. ALSO ADDED FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING UP
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FOLLOWED RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND TRIMMED POPS QUITE A BIT
FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN.
RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND THE NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE 19 UTC RAP
AND THE 12 AND 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE...NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OUTSIDE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY 23-01 UTC. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. EXPECT ALL
OF THE NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST TO BE
RAIN FREE ON THURSDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR
TONIGHT...LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT FOR NOW AS DRIER AIR
PROPAGATES INTO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY
EXPECTED.
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST IN THAT REGION.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE WEST.
THE ECMWF / GFS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING AN H5
LOW JUST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW FARTHER NORTH. GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THE OUTER PERIODS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
KBIS AND KJMS WILL BE THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE THE LOWEST CIGS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD...WHILE KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPINGE ON KBIS AND KJMS BY
12Z AND A VCSH HAS BEEN UTILIZED BEFORE THE TRUE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. KBIS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES...WHILE
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AT KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY WITH LOW VFR CIGS COMMENCING
THEREAFTER. KJMS WILL BE IN THE RAIN AREA AND IFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
THE BEST COVERAGE IS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES ATTM. HRRR MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CONVECTION BEST THIS AFTN AND LEANED
TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION FOR THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES WHILE THE PCPN IN THE SE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY INTO THE HOCKING HILLS BEFORE PULLING E. THEN CONVECTION
OUT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CANT KEEP
THE N DRY. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET...SO EXPECT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TO BE WEAKENING
ALSO. FEEL THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS PRETTY LOW.
THE CDFNT WILL WORK INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN CHANCES THERE.
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES WHERE UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED FROM YESTERDAYS PROGRESSIVE
CDFNT...BACK TO A SLOWER MORE SLUGGISH SOLUTION. H5 ENERGY
EJECTING OUT IN A BROAD SW FLOW WILL INTERACT THE CDFNT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE S AND E AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN. A
MOSTLY ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO RACE
ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE FA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS MEANS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BUILD IN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION
EARLY...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOUND BEHIND IT ON
THIS DAY AND THURSDAY.
NATIONAL MODELLERS WERE LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT STILL HAD THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH WESTERN OHIO BY 12Z WED. THE HIGH TEMPS WED DID NOT AGREE
WITH THEIR SFC PROGS AND I COULD NOT COME IN LINE WITH THE 80 DEG AT
CMH NOTED FROM ECMWF. TOOK YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND BLENDED WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF...LEANING HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS COLDER FORECAST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EVEN WITH A CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN ON
FRIDAY...READINGS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S MONDAY WILL DROP TO THE 50S TUESDAY AND ROUND OUT
THE WEEK IN 40S.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA TUES AND
EARLY WED. I DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT THINKING THAT THE
WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE. ONCE THE THUNDER THREAT PASSED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD POOL THURSDAY
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY...BOTH DUE TO THE DAYTIME SUN HITTING
A COOL AND MOIST COLUMN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STORMS NW AND SW OF THE AREA WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING. LIMITED VCTS MENTION TO KCVG THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITHOUT ANY THUNDER COMING INTO THE OTHER TAF
SITES. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PICK UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PRIMARILY KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN HOWEVER THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN AS WELL. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDER DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEAR ERI THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE ARE MAKING FOR
QUITE VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPPING INVERSION PROGRESSING FARTHER
NORTHEAST WILL DROP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA AND LAKE
ERIE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AT CLE AND TOL. LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
CLE LAKESHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND
EAST OF THE CITY TOWARD KHZY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CLE ON SW INTO SW OHIO AND MUCH
OF INDIANA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT RESIDE FROM LBE NW TO GKJ. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER NW PA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE HRRR INDICATES A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH ABOUT 4-6 MILES INLAND AND MAY REACH A KCLE TO KHZY LINE BY
21 UTC. COOLER READING ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE DAY SCT CONVECTION THREAT FOR NW PA SHOULD DIE OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CROSSING THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THU NIGHT WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM
SIDE.
A DYING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THIS FRONT COULD START TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WEST AND FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING
EAST.
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST.
DRYER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SAT BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS LERI
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES IN SAT NIGHT SO LEFTOVER CONVECTION
SHOULD END IN THE SE BY LATE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLACEMENT IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER
WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW IN NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN MN VS THE GFS`S BROAD TROF
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LA. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS...BEING LESS AMPLIFIED IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...BRINGING IT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12-18
HOURS SLOWER. WILL FOLLOW A WPS/ECMWF MIX IN GRIDS WHICH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A WARMER TUESDAY. AS FOR POPS HAVE CHANCE NUMBERS MOST
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE BREEZE KEEPING THE WINDS NORTH AT ERI AND WILL LIKELY REACH
CLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ARE DOMINATED
BY A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15KT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN THE WEST AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AROUND
5-8K FT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THAT
COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10KT THE FOG/HAZE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL
DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH BEST MIXING
AT FDY/TOL WITH GUSTS AROUD 30KT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
TO OUR WEST AGAIN MONDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...JAMISON/TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEAR ERI THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE ARE MAKING FOR
QUITE VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPPING INVERSION PROGRESSING FARTHER
NORTHEAST WILL DROP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA AND LAKE
ERIE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AT CLE AND TOL. LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
CLE LAKESHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND
EAST OF THE CITY TOWARD KHZY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CLE ON SW INTO SW OHIO AND MUCH
OF INDIANA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT RESIDE FROM LBE NW TO GKJ. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER NW PA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE HRRR INDICATES A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH ABOUT 4-6 MILES INLAND AND MAY REACH A KCLE TO KHZY LINE BY
21 UTC. COOLER READING ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE DAY SCT CONVECTION THREAT FOR NW PA SHOULD DIE OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CROSSING THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THU NIGHT WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM
SIDE.
A DYING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THIS FRONT COULD START TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WEST AND FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING
EAST.
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST.
DRYER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SAT BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS LERI
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES IN SAT NIGHT SO LEFTOVER CONVECTION
SHOULD END IN THE SE BY LATE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLACEMENT IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER
WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW IN NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN MN VS THE GFS`S BROAD TROF
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LA. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS...BEING LESS AMPLIFIED IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...BRINGING IT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12-18
HOURS SLOWER. WILL FOLLOW A WPS/ECMWF MIX IN GRIDS WHICH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A WARMER TUESDAY. AS FOR POPS HAVE CHANCE NUMBERS MOST
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO EARLY TODAY. FRONT WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
ABOUT...BEING PUSHED AT TIMES BY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OR THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AT KERI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CU RULE SUGGESTS BKN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SHOWS 3500 TO 4KFT BASES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
TO OUR WEST AGAIN MONDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CLE ON SW INTO SW OHIO AND MUCH
OF INDIANA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT RESIDE FROM LBE NW TO GKJ. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER NW PA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE HRRR INDICATES A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH ABOUT 4-6 MILES INLAND AND MAY REACH A KCLE TO KHZY LINE BY
21 UTC. COOLER READING ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE DAY SCT CONVECTION THREAT FOR NW PA SHOULD DIE OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CROSSING THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THU NIGHT WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM
SIDE.
A DYING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THIS FRONT COULD START TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WEST AND FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING
EAST.
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST.
DRYER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SAT BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS LERI
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES IN SAT NIGHT SO LEFTOVER CONVECTION
SHOULD END IN THE SE BY LATE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLACEMENT IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER
WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW IN NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN MN VS THE GFS`S BROAD TROF
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LA. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS...BEING LESS AMPLIFIED IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...BRINGING IT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12-18
HOURS SLOWER. WILL FOLLOW A WPS/ECMWF MIX IN GRIDS WHICH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A WARMER TUESDAY. AS FOR POPS HAVE CHANCE NUMBERS MOST
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO EARLY TODAY. FRONT WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
ABOUT...BEING PUSHED AT TIMES BY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OR THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AT KERI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CU RULE SUGGESTS BKN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SHOWS 3500 TO 4KFT BASES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
TO OUR WEST AGAIN MONDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ILN CWA REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT FAR FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA (WITH TEMPERATURES FROM TOLEDO TO FORT
WAYNE IN THE LOWER 50S). A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW HAS SPARKED A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...REQUIRING SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN BE WELL MIXED
THROUGH AROUND 850MB...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG...SO GUSTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 20-25 MPH. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO OBSERVED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO DEGREES WARMER. 89 DEGREES IS THE RECORD FOR ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES...AND THESE RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY...THE RAP IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...MIXING WELL TOO HIGH. THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
ARE NONETHELESS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH
THROUGH MINNESOTA...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THIS LOW AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER-RES RUNS THAT ARE NOW IN
RANGE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ITS EASTWARD MOTION WILL BE
VERY SLOW. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND WEAKEN
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCREASE...AS
THE FRONT MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER AND INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...INSOLATION WILL NOT BE IDEAL...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE MORE FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT LUMBERS EASTWARD...AND AS IT LOSES ITS DEFINITION
BY SATURDAY (LAYING OUT IN MORE OF A SW-TO-NE DIRECTION)...POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE ILN CWA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE INITIAL BATCH OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL SIGNS IN THE
MODELS OF ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT THESE ARE NOT BEING MODELED CONSISTENTLY.
EVEN THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL GET SOME
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL STILL BE KEPT IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...OWING TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT CONCERNS.
FOR FRIDAY...THREATS FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SEEM TO BE ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE...WHICH CAN BE TIED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...WITH SHEAR
THAT IS WEAK TO MODERATE...BUT MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO
THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP IN THIS SORT OF
ENVIRONMENT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IF THERE ARE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SATURDAY MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN WEAKER FORCING AND SHEAR...LIMITING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL EVEN FURTHER. FINALLY...WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND
ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF. FLOODING ALSO APPEARS TO
BE UNLIKELY.
AFTER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS CEASED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A
SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING A
LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS RETURN OF MOISTURE...PERHAPS
UNREASONABLY SO...AND THUS THE FORECAST WILL WAIT UNTIL WELL INTO
SUNDAY (WITH BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY) TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
LOW-END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE
CONTINGENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION...A GRADIENT FROM NW-TO-SE
IS REQUIRED. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION
INDICATED ON THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. EVEN AFTER THE WEAK FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S (ABOVE NORMAL)...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AGAIN ON SUNDAY (AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO HIGH
CHANCE FOR NOW AS DETAILS AND TIMING ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. A
BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
430 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ILN CWA REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT FAR FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA (WITH TEMPERATURES FROM TOLEDO TO FORT
WAYNE IN THE LOWER 50S). A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW HAS SPARKED A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...REQUIRING SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN BE WELL MIXED
THROUGH AROUND 850MB...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG...SO GUSTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 20-25 MPH. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO OBSERVED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO DEGREES WARMER. 89 DEGREES IS THE RECORD FOR ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES...AND THESE RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY...THE RAP IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...MIXING WELL TOO HIGH. THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
ARE NONETHELESS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH
THROUGH MINNESOTA...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THIS LOW AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER-RES RUNS THAT ARE NOW IN
RANGE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ITS EASTWARD MOTION WILL BE
VERY SLOW. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND WEAKEN
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCREASE...AS
THE FRONT MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER AND INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...INSOLATION WILL NOT BE IDEAL...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE MORE FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT LUMBERS EASTWARD...AND AS IT LOSES ITS DEFINITION
BY SATURDAY (LAYING OUT IN MORE OF A SW-TO-NE DIRECTION)...POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE ILN CWA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE INITIAL BATCH OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL SIGNS IN THE
MODELS OF ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT THESE ARE NOT BEING MODELED CONSISTENTLY.
EVEN THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL GET SOME
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL STILL BE KEPT IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...OWING TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT CONCERNS.
FOR FRIDAY...THREATS FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SEEM TO BE ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE...WHICH CAN BE TIED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...WITH SHEAR
THAT IS WEAK TO MODERATE...BUT MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO
THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP IN THIS SORT OF
ENVIRONMENT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IF THERE ARE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SATURDAY MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN WEAKER FORCING AND SHEAR...LIMITING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL EVEN FURTHER. FINALLY...WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND
ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF. FLOODING ALSO APPEARS TO
BE UNLIKELY.
AFTER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS CEASED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A
SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING A
LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS RETURN OF MOISTURE...PERHAPS
UNREASONABLY SO...AND THUS THE FORECAST WILL WAIT UNTIL WELL INTO
SUNDAY (WITH BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY) TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
LOW-END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE
CONTINGENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION...A GRADIENT FROM NW-TO-SE
IS REQUIRED. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION
INDICATED ON THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. EVEN AFTER THE WEAK FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S (ABOVE NORMAL)...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AGAIN ON SUNDAY (AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO HIGH
CHANCE FOR NOW AS DETAILS AND TIMING ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. A
BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
843 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO PULL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO MOST OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF FAVORING SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY TOWARD
MIDNIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE
MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN COLDER UPPER LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX. REMAINDER OF THE GOING FORECAST OKAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES IN
LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY AT THE ARKANSAS
TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE VERY SLOWLY SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESSENTIALLY SEPARATES THE 45-60F DEWPOINTS IN NE OK
AND 60+ DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE. THERE REMAINS A SLIM CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK/NW
AR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
OVER ERN KS SWWD TO THE TRIPLE POINT REGION OVER NWRN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BULK OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS KS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS NE OK...IN ZONE OF 45-55KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SWRN STATES. PERSISTENT/MOIST SWLY UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS
IN SEVERAL PIECES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
THE SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL FAVOR BOTH PRE AND POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/CMC OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/DGEX...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
FALLS OFF SOME TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE ECMWF/CMC HANG
ON TO RAINFALL WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
COOLER/DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND MOVE OVER THE REGION AND THEN WASH OUT ON SATURDAY. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 1015 PM...KGSP 88D INDICATED SEVERAL PATCHES OF LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
CIN WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE. THE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...I WILL KEEP LOW CHC TO SCHC
POPS. THE HRRR INDICATES A FEW POCKETS OF SFC LOW COND PRES DEF
ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AND I-77 CORRDIOR BY DAYBREAK. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER WET GROUND.
AS OF 750 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS RUNNING FROM
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. AT THIS RATE...THE LINE WOULD REACH KAND AT 0025
Z...KGMU 0035Z...AND KGSP AROUND 1Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST TIMING.
AS OF 535 PM...TCLT AND KGSP RADARS INDICATE A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE CLT METRO AREA AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING OVER EXTREME NE GA. THE STORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAVE A
HISTORY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL. THE THREAT OF GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AS DCAPE VALUES BORDER ON 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SHOULD RESULT AS THE CLUSTER TRACK
NE ACROSS CLT. THE LINE TO THE WEST SHOULD SWEEP EAST OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS. I WILL MAKE CHANGES TO MOST FORECAST FIELDS TO ALIGN
WITH LATEST OBS AND THINKING.
AS OF 230 PM...THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO CATCH UP WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACRS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
THE NC PIEDMONT (WHERE THEY EARLIER SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY) THIS
AFTN. I HAVE BUMPED UP POP TO CHC IN THE ERN ZONES WHERE IT USED TO
BE DRY OR ONLY SLGT CHC. THERE IS STILL ONLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
PER THE LAPS ANALYSIS...AND SHEAR IS WEEK. SO EXPECT MAINLY SHWRS
AND A FEW GARDEN VARIETY TSTMS. WITH THAT SAID...THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG ACRS THE ERN 1/3RD
OF THE CWFA. SO EVEN SHWRS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINK
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...GIVEN THE LOW CAPE AND SHEAR. TO THE
WEST...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...WITH JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS.
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SHWRS SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. BETTER INSTBY AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SWRN
AND CENTRAL NC MTNS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT. SO THE POPS RAMPING UP TO SOLID CHC TO
LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING...HIGHEST WEST...STILL LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...THE DEEP LAYER RH MAXIMUM AXIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWFA
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL STILL BE BACK WEST ACRS
THE OH/TN VLYS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE IN GENERAL FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN SHWR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SCATTERED LINGERING
ACTIVITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S MTNS AND LWR-MID 60S
PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY...SOME OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF
MCS ACRS THE OH VLY...TURNING TOWARD THE SW TOWARD THE NRN MTNS
AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WITH NO MENTION OF THIS IN THE
SPC OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE...I ACTUALLY EXPECT A LULL IN COVERAGE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS INSTBY WILL BE AT ITS LOWEST.
STILL...POPS ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE ONGOING MOIST SW FLOW.
THERE SHUD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY...SO IT/S DIFFICULT
TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTBY THERE WILL BE FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTN. WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC EAST TO LIKELY WEST FOR SHWRS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY MODEST CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. SO SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. THE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHUD KEEP TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S WEST TO
LWR 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRI...MAJOR HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE SE LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL BE FULLY IN PLACE BY MON...WITH A 588 DM H5 RIDGE ENTRENCHED
OVER THE SE. MAINLY A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE SUN AND MON AFTN/EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT S TO SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVIDE ISOLD SHRA COVERAGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS
EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OF THE
WEEKEND MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
INSOLATION IMPROVES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS AND SLIGHT MID
LEVEL DRYING OCCURS BEFORE THE SE RIDGE REBOUNDS IN EARNEST. WILL
FEATURE SOLID SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...EACH
AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT MINS AND MAXES TO RUN TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS AND DEEP UPPER
TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE LONG MODELS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SINCE YESTERDAYS FCST YET
THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 TO 24HRS FASTER WITH THE TROFS APPROACH
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN. THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FCST
HAS BEEN TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS A SLOWER...ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH I
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE. AT ANY RATE...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
THE TROF SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND STILL BE OVER THE REGION BY NEW DAY
7.
AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE CWFA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS WITH THE UPPER
LVL PATTERN...THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE FRONT IS
NOW MORE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS AND BY EARLY FRI...THE SYSTEM SHOULD EAST OF THE CWFA. SOME
DEGREE OF DRIER AND COOLER SFC RIDGING SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FROPA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODELS STILL DEVELOP SOME SORT
OF LOW TO OUR SE JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE CANADIAN NOW TRYING TO SPIN UP A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL
SYSTEM. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. I DID PUSH BACK THE BEST WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12HRS BASED ON A SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH AND FROPA.
BY 00Z FRI...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF FRI. TEMPS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT
ON WED AND THURS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THE FRONT PASSES THRU.
ON FRI...VALUES WILL PERSIST AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 745 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
RUNNING FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NE INTO THE NC
FOOTHILLS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. AT THIS RATE...THE LINE WOULD
REACH KCLT AROUND 330Z. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT CAPE WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE. I WILL TEMPO SHRA BETWEEN 1Z TO 5Z.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THICK HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY...MIXING HEIGHT WILL RISE QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17Z. CAMS
INDICATE THAT THE A BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA WOULD MOST LIKELY PASS
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z TO 20Z.
ELSEWHERE...AT 745 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS RUNNING FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NE INTO THE NC
FOOTHILLS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. AT THIS RATE...THE LINE WOULD
REACH KAND AT 0025 Z...KGMU 0035Z...AND KGSP AROUND 1Z...I WILL
INDICATE TEMPO FOR TSRA DURING LIKELY PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THOUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. CAMS INDICATE
THAT A BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA WOULD MOST LIKELY PASS OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TO 20Z.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
441 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF WORTHINGTON AND
JACKSON MINNESOTA. EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE A BIT...BUT WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS RECOVERED INTO THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MISANALYSED. BOTH THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA
WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTH AND
EAST...ANY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z
WITH MAINLY SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...LOWS LOOK TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S FAR WEST TO MID 40S IN THE FAR EAST.
OTHER THAN SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEAST...THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FOR SURE ONE OF THE MOST QUIET PERIODS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING...
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AS WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MEAGER...AND WILL HAVE TO WORK INTO A FAIRLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE
TO START. WILL KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
AFTER 06Z...WITH BEST CHANCES SNEAKING IN LATE. THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY AND HEADING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS PEAKING MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. ENOUGH STEEPENING
OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS TO THE SOUTH
OF MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH TO WARRANT A SOMEWHAT BETTER
MENTION OF THUNDER.
WAVE LIFTS PAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SHEARING NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY
IN THE EASTERN CWA...WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA.
SHOULD GET A DECENT DRY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING
WITH A FAIRLY SUBSIDENT QUADRANT OF UPPER WAVE INTO CWA. START TO
GET A DRASTIC DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION TO START WHICH MEANS HANGING BACK
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. SUCH A DEEPER SYSTEM PER ENSEMBLE HINTS AND ECMWF LOOKS
MORE FAVORED WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN SETTING UP AND THIS WILL START
TO REBUILD THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS STALLING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
BOUNDARY. MAIN TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PULSE OF MID LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYING
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOME ORIENTATION
OF TROUGHINESS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT TO TRULY DEFINE A MORE CERTAIN THREAT FOR RAINFALL. DOES
APPEAR THAT A PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID
MORNING FRIDAY...THEN LIFTING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AT POINT LOCATIONS SO
MINIMAL MENTION IN KFSD AND KSUX TAFS. ANY STORM WILL THEN
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...CURRENT ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH THE HRRR CONTINUING TO SHOW LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE, AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOURLY. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED OTHER THAN AN UPDATE LATER ON TO REMOVE THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WORDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/
AVIATION...
RIGHT NOW VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO WEST TENNESSEE AS OF 00Z...AND
THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARDS CKV AND BNA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z...AND ON TO CSV CLOSER TO 18Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
ONLY EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VIS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS
LINE APPROACHES FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. BEST OF THE
SHORTWAVES HAS PULLED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...BUT STILL A
COUPLE OF WEAK ONES TO GO. FIRST IS LEADING TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE NOT HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION FOR TODAY...IN PART DUE TO THE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT MOST MODELS DID NOT ANTICIPATE. HRRR
MODEL...THOUGH OFF SLIGHTLY ON POSITIONING MAY BE HANDLING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN DESTABILIZED REGION THE BEST.
12Z TEXAS TECH MODEL AS WELL AS THE RAP (TO A LESSER DEGREE)
DEVELOPED A SOLID LINE...BUT THAT DOESNT MATCH WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT THIS ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD.
COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE YET TO SEE CLEARING TO DEVELOP
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING THERE YET THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING CONVECTION TO PROGRESS/DEVELOP EASTWARD AS
WELL. THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...BUT CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
STRONG WINDS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BETTER SUITED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WILL APPROACH
THE AREA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS...COUPLED WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE IN
THE 3000 J/KG RANGE WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL END BY MIDDAY.
RIDGING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WELL ABOVE
NORMALS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KICKING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MORE THAN 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY
BY ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE EVENT OF A DELAY IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL FORCING...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN FOR NOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A LIMITED BUT EXISTENT DAMAGING WIND
OR HAIL THREAT. SO MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING THAT BROADENING OF POTENTIAL SEEMS THE BEST CHOICE FOR
THIS PACKAGE.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT
ACTUALLY ARRIVES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA HEADLINES. BOTH GFS AND
RAW ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THIS IS OVERDONE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
BE THAT COOL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO AOA NORMALS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 89 72 87 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
VICTORIA 73 88 72 87 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
LAREDO 75 95 75 99 78 / 20 40 20 10 10
ALICE 74 90 72 92 73 / 30 40 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 74 85 73 84 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
COTULLA 72 93 72 96 73 / 20 40 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 74 90 73 90 73 / 30 40 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 82 73 83 74 / 30 40 20 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SITES IS EXITING THE
REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. THINK WE
WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA OUT FOR METRO AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND START TO HEAT UP WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOP AND
AMENDMENTS WOULD BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE AS THE OVERNIGHT PCPN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/FILL IN (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN COUNTIES).
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS IN HAND. HOPEFULLY WE
CAN GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL SYSTEM. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35.
FORECASTED PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB
IS CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH
CONSISTENCY TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT
RAIN (LOW QPF) TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD
TROUBLE CAPTURING ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO
CONSIDERATION HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS.
NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 86 68 88 70 / 50 30 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 86 69 87 71 / 40 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 81 72 82 72 / 40 40 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN TURN TO THE N-NW EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THOUGH THE AREA.THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH WINDS
SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FETCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
AVIATION...
DRY VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS UPPER TROUGH COINCIDES WITH
SURFACE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z AS MAIN LIFT FROM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS BASE OF TROUGH STEERS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DRYING
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WITH THAT NEXT LIFT. WE HAVE PULLED THE FINAL
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 12Z. A
DRY AND MILD DOWNSLOPING DAY WILL ENSUE WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY
LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE TRAILING LIFT MAY TEMPER SPEEDS SOMEWHAT.
ALSO...THE MAIN WIND CORE ALOFT SHOULD PASS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WILL TRAIL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT OF SORTS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH IS MOSTLY
WHAT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL ACCOMPANY AN ANEMIC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL REESTABLISH SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT ON A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...DESPITE BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL WANTING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS TOWARD AND OVER THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS
IS WARRANTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING.
A COOLDOWN CONTINUES TO LOOK IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGES OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY-MID WEEK THEN APPEARS TO BE SETUP FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE
OVER...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE STARVATION LOOKS IMMINENT AS THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT TRACKS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEAR THE
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES PASSING OVER THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY. RED FLAG CONSIDERATIONS
WERE ALSO MADE TODAY BUT DECIDED TO FOREGO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
FOREMOST...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WINDS PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WE
BELIEVE FUELS WILL NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE AS THEY POTENTIALLY WERE THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE QUALITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WE EXPECT SOME UPWARD LIFT STILL TO BE
OCCURRING AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST HRRR AND WRF/NAM RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANYWAY...STILL NOT A GOOD DAY FOR
GENERAL BURNING BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM
RECENT DAYS. RMCQUEEN
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
POTENTIALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY ON THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 45 80 52 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 48 82 53 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 51 83 54 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 51 84 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 52 85 56 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 84 55 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 52 85 54 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 56 86 56 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 88 57 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 58 89 61 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE AS THE OVERNIGHT PCPN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/FILL IN (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN COUNTIES).
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS IN HAND. HOPEFULLY WE
CAN GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL SYSTEM. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35.
FORECASTED PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB
IS CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH
CONSISTENCY TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT
RAIN (LOW QPF) TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD
TROUBLE CAPTURING ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO
CONSIDERATION HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS.
NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 86 68 88 / 60 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 73 86 69 87 / 60 40 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 72 82 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND DON`T HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. THE RAP 13 AND
NAM 12 INITIALIZED BEST SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLUTIONS.
EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIP ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TAF SITES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR THIS AFTN AND THEN FALL BACK TOWARD MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35. FORECASTED
PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB IS
CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH CONSISTENCY
TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT RAIN (LOW QPF)
TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD TROUBLE CAPTURING
ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS EXTREMELY
LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/ UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS. NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SCEC FOR THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 86 68 88 / 60 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 73 86 69 87 / 60 40 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 72 82 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.AVIATION...
DRY VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS UPPER TROUGH COINCIDES WITH
SURFACE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z AS MAIN LIFT FROM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS BASE OF TROUGH STEERS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DRYING
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WITH THAT NEXT LIFT. WE HAVE PULLED THE FINAL
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 12Z. A
DRY AND MILD DOWNSLOPING DAY WILL ENSUE WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY
LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE TRAILING LIFT MAY TEMPER SPEEDS SOMEWHAT.
ALSO...THE MAIN WIND CORE ALOFT SHOULD PASS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WILL TRAIL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT OF SORTS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH IS MOSTLY
WHAT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL ACCOMPANY AN ANEMIC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL REESTABLISH SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT ON A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...DESPITE BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL WANTING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS TOWARD AND OVER THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS
IS WARRANTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING.
A COOLDOWN CONTINUES TO LOOK IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGES OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY-MID WEEK THEN APPEARS TO BE SETUP FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE
OVER...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE STARVATION LOOKS IMMINENT AS THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT TRACKS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEAR THE
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES PASSING OVER THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY. RED FLAG CONSIDERATIONS
WERE ALSO MADE TODAY BUT DECIDED TO FOREGO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
FOREMOST...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WINDS PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WE
BELIEVE FUELS WILL NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE AS THEY POTENTIALLY WERE THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE QUALITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WE EXPECT SOME UPWARD LIFT STILL TO BE
OCCURRING AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST HRRR AND WRF/NAM RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANYWAY...STILL NOT A GOOD DAY FOR
GENERAL BURNING BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM
RECENT DAYS. RMCQUEEN
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
POTENTIALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY ON THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 77 45 80 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 81 48 82 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 83 51 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 84 51 84 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 85 52 85 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 84 51 84 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 84 52 85 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 91 56 86 56 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 90 55 88 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z AS MAIN LIFT FROM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS BASE OF TROUGH STEERS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DRYING
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WITH THAT NEXT LIFT. WE HAVE PULLED THE FINAL
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 12Z. A
DRY AND MILD DOWNSLOPING DAY WILL ENSUE WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY
LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE TRAILING LIFT MAY TEMPER SPEEDS SOMEWHAT.
ALSO...THE MAIN WIND CORE ALOFT SHOULD PASS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WILL TRAIL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT OF SORTS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH IS MOSTLY
WHAT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL ACCOMPANY AN ANEMIC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL REESTABLISH SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT ON A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...DESPITE BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL WANTING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS TOWARD AND OVER THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS
IS WARRANTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING.
A COOLDOWN CONTINUES TO LOOK IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGES OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY-MID WEEK THEN APPEARS TO BE SETUP FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE
OVER...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE STARVATION LOOKS IMMINENT AS THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT TRACKS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEAR THE
GULF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES PASSING OVER THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY. RED FLAG CONSIDERATIONS
WERE ALSO MADE TODAY BUT DECIDED TO FOREGO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
FOREMOST...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WINDS PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WE
BELIEVE FUELS WILL NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE AS THEY POTENTIALLY WERE THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE QUALITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WE EXPECT SOME UPWARD LIFT STILL TO BE
OCCURRING AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST HRRR AND WRF/NAM RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANYWAY...STILL NOT A GOOD DAY FOR
GENERAL BURNING BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM
RECENT DAYS. RMCQUEEN
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
POTENTIALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY ON THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 77 45 80 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 81 48 82 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 83 51 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 84 51 84 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 85 52 85 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 84 51 84 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 84 52 85 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 91 56 86 56 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 90 55 88 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35. FORECASTED
PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB IS
CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH CONSISTENCY
TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT RAIN (LOW QPF)
TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD TROUBLE CAPTURING
ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS EXTREMELY
LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/ UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS. NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SCEC FOR THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 86 68 88 / 60 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 73 86 69 87 / 60 40 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 72 82 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
804 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY...ORIENTING ITSELF WEST TO EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SENDING
THIS FRONT NORTH. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME...SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAD FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DANVILLE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS TN PER LATEST RAP MODEL SHOULD HEAD NE INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DUSK WITH INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITY IN THE EAST IS HIGHER PER
MORE SUN EARLIER RAISING SBCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG...WITH DCAPES OVER
1000 J/KG GIVEN DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LVLS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL WIND ENERGY IS WEAK
COMPARED TO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH ENOUGH LOW
LVL CONVERGENCE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING FRONT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TO KEEP SOME CHANCE IN OVER THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE PUSHING NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO OUT EAST. THE BETTER THREAT
ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC. KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE MAINLY WEST OF I-81 IN
VIRGINIA...AND ACROSS THE NC MTNS TO LOWER CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT....AND HUMIDITY INCREASING...TEMPS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 60S
EAST.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. SOME SUNSHINE
COULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL LOOKING AT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES/JET STREAK ADDING TO LIFT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LESS COVERAGE
ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL LATE DAY STORMS IN THE WEST WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE ON MONDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY...WASHING OUT OR PUSHING
NORTH WHATEVER BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE WEEKEND. MAX T WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT SITES GET HIT WITH STORMS...BUT H85 TEMPS
WILL RISE BACK FROM 16-18C SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT COOLER
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
PHASED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
ON MONDAY...WILL MOVE EAST AND LOOKS TO BE FORMIDABLE ENOUGH TO
DISLODGE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND CHANGE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH TO
CROSS OUR REGION...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NEARLY CLOSED OFF OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...CHCS OF STORMS MAY BE THE SMALLEST THAT DAY...ALTHOUGH
STILL CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE HIGHEST
PEAKS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER. H85 TEMPS MAY FALL TO 5C
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE COOL DOWN CONSIDERING THE STRING OF 80F HIGHS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AIRMASS IS
SO COLD ALOFT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE MODELS TYPICALLY POOR
AT PREDICTING QPF THIS MANY DAYS AWAY IN THIS SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT FRIDAY...
RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/2AM WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUD COVER...WITH CEILINGS MAINLY BELOW 10KFT.
MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY MVFR CEILINGS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS AMPLY MOIST. BUFKIT SUGGESTS
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z/2AM AT BLF AND LWB. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG
IN FOR THE BCB TAF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF FOG
TONIGHT.
FRONT APPEARS TO BE STAYING NORTHWEST OF US INTO SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVELS ENERGY SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHRA/TSRA. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE SAT MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-25
KNOTS.
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THEN WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA OR
BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL
MVFR IN MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS LEFTOVER MOISTURE
APPEARS QUITE SHALLOW. RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND CIGS LOWERING TOWARD MVFR LEVELS
ESPCLY LATER IN THE DAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR MAY 9TH AND OBSERVED HIGHS THROUGH 5PM.
STATION RECORD/YEAR OBSERVED HIGH
ROA 92/1963 88
LYH 94/1936 88
DAN 94/1963 89
BCB 85/1966 81
BLF 84/2005 84 **TIED FOR MAY 9TH**
LWB 82/2000 80
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
200 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 853 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE A MID
LEVEL CAP THAT HAS AGAIN INHIBITED ANY CONVECTION. THE SHALLOW
WEDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG ON A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE THE FRONT HEADS BACK NE OF THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST BEFORE A LIGHT WEST/SW TRAJECTORY
DEVELOPS LATE AND HELPS SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW DECK. HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN RETURNING OVER THE SE PER MSAS LIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE WINDS DO GO LIGHT SO
KEPT MENTION MAINLY EAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS. OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S RIDGES EXCEPT A FEW 40S IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED DISSIPATING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR REGION MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN VA TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH CU FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CAP IS STILL HOLDING DESPITE THE SOLAR HEATING...BUT IT IS
WEAKENING. HRRR GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN BUT KEPT MOST OF THE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM AND
GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS..ALLOWED FOR JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
RIDGES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP IN THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S
TO UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
STRONG LAYER OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HINDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY REFER TO CLIMATE
SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THU NIGHT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL BE BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THINK ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW WHICH BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS EDGE CLOSER
AND BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WRN CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A SVR THREAT GIVEN TIMING AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECWMF ENSEMBLES OVERALL PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE
UPPER PATTERN GOES FROM A SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH 5H TROUGH DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MIDWEEK. MAIN FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH LEE TROUGH...UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
SUNDAY. WILL SEE DIURNAL TYPE CYCLE FOR POPS INTO MONDAY WITH SFC
HIGH SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER NOVA/NORTHERN WV. HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AS
WELL.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD TUE-WED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CLOSE IN WITH BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW STRATUS CREEPING WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME STATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE
REPORTING VISIBILITY DROPS TO THE 2SM TO 4SM RANGE. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP.
FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU
FIELDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS AND WINDS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA. RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO THE WEST WITH MAINLY VFR
EXCLUDING PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR IN A LATE DAY SHRA ESPCLY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/NF
CLIMATE...PM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT SNAKING ITS WAY
FROM JUST SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS TO VOLK FIELD TO WEST BEND
WISCONSIN. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN MAINLY IMPACTING CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. BUT WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF FRONT AT A SNAILS
PACE...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOX VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA EARLIER BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. THE
MAIN SHOW HOWEVER...IS OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST...CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVELING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR THE
WARM FRONT TO BOW NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING DUE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW. HOW FAR NORTH IS STILL QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY FLOW. SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
IOWA WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AT PEAK HEATING. THINKING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED FROM THIS WAVE...THAT COULD
HELP TO KEEP THE WARM FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICT. IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOP...40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TO A LESSER EXTENT.. THEN ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CONVECTION...IN THE FORM OF LINE
SEGMENTS...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
MID-EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE DECENT FORCING FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES. RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET GAUGE ON INSTABILITY SINCE
PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE EITHER CONTAMINATED WITH CONVECTION OR NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. BUT ELEVATED CAPES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 1K J/KG AND THATS A DECENT PLACE TO START. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND BULK SHEARS IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. CHANCES
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK BETTER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES TO THE EAST. THE STORMS SHOULD
EXIT LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
STILL POP UP ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM TONIGHT AND RANGE MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
MID-MORNING...AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OCCUR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BENEATH THE DRY SLOT. THEN SHOULD SEE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION AT ABOUT 750MB...SO TONED BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SOME. AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
NOT ALL THAT COLD...AND KEPT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S
WEST TO NEAR 70 NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LARGE SCALE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DEAMPLIFY THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPR RIDGING OCCURS
OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN EWD MOVING LONGWAVE TROF SHIFTS FROM
THE CNTRL CONUS TO E-CNTRL NORTH AMERICA. PCPN CHCS TO BE
ASSOCIATED FIRST WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTED NE FROM THE MEAN UPR
TROF DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITIH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF AND THE MAIN SFC CYCLONE/
CDFNT. TEMPS ARE FCST TO GO FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY...TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS THE MEAN FLOW TURNS NW.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS OVER NRN WI SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END FRI EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO SRN
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...THE MDLS INDICATE A WEAK SFC RDG/RISING UPR
HEIGHTS WORKING EAST TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVRNGT
HOURS. DECREASING CLOUDS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS COULD SEND TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 35-40 DEG RANGE NORTH...LWR TO MID 40S SOUTH.
SFC RDG MOVES ACROSS NE WI SAT MORNING AND BE TO OUR EAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO EJECT EWD FROM THE DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND
ALREADY BY PUSHING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO CNTRL WI SAT AFTERNOON...
BUT WL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS ATTEMPT TO BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF TO THEN RACE ACROSS WI SAT NGT...THEREBY
BRINGING A CHC OF SHWRS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL RIGHT NOW AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO ACROSS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/PCPN IN THE VCNTY WL HOLD MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50 SOUTH. THERE
MAY NOW BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS SUNDAY MORNING AS ONCE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAY TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BETTER AND
FOCUS THE CHC POPS MORE IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS REACH THE MID TO UPR 60S (COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROF IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER
E-CNTRL NORTH AMERICA. PREVAILING SW WINDS WL BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO WI ON MON AND LIFT BOTH A SFC LOW AND WRMFNT NORTH INTO WI
MON AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MDL HERE AS THE GFS
APPEARS TO EJECT THE MAIN UPR TROF TOO QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS FOR NE WI ON MON WITH MAX
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
A STRONG UPR JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF BY MON
EVENING AND RACES NEWD THRU THE MIDWEST TO THE UPR MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES MON NGT. SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS TO CONT MON NGT AS THE
CDFNT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY TUE...THE UPR TROF DOES MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS...BUT THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A DRY SLOT...THUS TUE COULD END UP DRY. MAX TEMPS ON TUE TO AGAIN
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
PCPN CHCS TO THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID-WEEK AS THE UPR TROF
SHIFTS EAST AND SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE NOW NW FLOW ALOFT WL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO NE WI ON WED AND THU. TEMPS WL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS AND WL HAVE TO WATCH N-CNTRL WI WED NGT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT TIMING THESE PERIODS REMAINS VERY
DIFFICULT. LATEST THINKING BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS IS
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STORMS IS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM SO FAR TODAY DESPITE WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR INVADING THE REGION. WILL JUST KEEP A PATCHY MENTION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL A MORE CERTAIN TREND IS OBSERVED. &&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING NWD INTO THE AREA IS STARTING TO
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING. AT LEAST WE NOW
HAVE THE CREST OF THE SNOWMELT WATER THROUGH THE RIVERS...SO
CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF FROM RAINS IS GREATER THAN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC RGN OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING...BUT MOST LIKELY COULD OCCUR OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN FLOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1158 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AT 4 AM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NORTH OF A GRANITE FALLS MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 600 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS....MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF STRONG
700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AS
THE STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN COLLAPSING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCASIONAL HEAT BURSTS /ALBERT LEA AND AUSTIN MINNESOTA...AND
ALGONA CLARION IOWA/. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
JUST TO OUR WEST...WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING THE STRONG WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THE HRRR AND ARW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SPC WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY AND THEN TAKES THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER OMAHA/S FORECAST AREA AND MOVES THEM
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ON
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
MESO MODELS HAVE NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...NAM...GFS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE 800
TO 650 MB CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DRYING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ASCENT OF
THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE NCAPE /FAT CAPE/ SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. EVEN THOUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DOES NOT FAVORABLE SUPERCELL SHEAR...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THERE TOO. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS TOO. THE HRRR AND ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HOP
WRF...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
VIGOROUS EARLY...AND THEN WANE AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY USES
UP MUCH OF THE CAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE DONE BY 10 PM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ON FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING...AND INTERSTATE
94 IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR SOME FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MN/IA BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PAST KRST/KLSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS TO KRST
LOOK TO BE FROM 21Z TO 02Z...AND 23Z THROUGH 04Z AT KLSE. FOR
NOW...KEEPING MVFR VISIBILITY AND LOW END VFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL
UPDATE AS CONVECTION FIRES UP TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WRAP AROUND MVFR CLOUDS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING BETWEEN GENOA AND LANSING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AT 4 AM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NORTH OF A GRANITE FALLS MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 600 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS....MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF STRONG
700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AS
THE STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN COLLAPSING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCASIONAL HEAT BURSTS /ALBERT LEA AND AUSTIN MINNESOTA...AND
ALGONA CLARION IOWA/. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
JUST TO OUR WEST...WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING THE STRONG WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THE HRRR AND ARW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SPC WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY AND THEN TAKES THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER OMAHA/S FORECAST AREA AND MOVES THEM
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ON
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
MESO MODELS HAVE NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...NAM...GFS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE 800
TO 650 MB CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DRYING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ASCENT OF
THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE NCAPE /FAT CAPE/ SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. EVEN THOUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DOES NOT FAVORABLE SUPERCELL SHEAR...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THERE TOO. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS TOO. THE HRRR AND ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HOP
WRF...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
VIGOROUS EARLY...AND THEN WANE AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY USES
UP MUCH OF THE CAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE DONE BY 10 PM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ON FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING...AND INTERSTATE
94 IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR SOME FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT IT TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A WIND SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM KS/NE UP INTO MN
BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
WANE...THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD FOR A ROUND OF STORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FOR NOW DID NOT ADD LARGE GUSTS TO
THE TAFS...AS PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND SPEEDS WILL BE DIFFICULT
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND HOW
MUCH TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE IT TO RECOVER. POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND EVEN TORNADOES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO INVADE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING BETWEEN GENOA AND LANSING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
411 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AT 4 AM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NORTH OF A GRANITE FALLS MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 600 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS....MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF STRONG
700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AS
THE STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN COLLAPSING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCASIONAL HEAT BURSTS /ALBERT LEA AND AUSTIN MINNESOTA...AND
ALGONA CLARION IOWA/. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
JUST TO OUR WEST...WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING THE STRONG WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THE HRRR AND ARW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SPC WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY AND THEN TAKES THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER OMAHA/S FORECAST AREA AND MOVES THEM
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ON
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
MESO MODELS HAVE NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...NAM...GFS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE 800
TO 650 MB CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DRYING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ASCENT OF
THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE NCAPE /FAT CAPE/ SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. EVEN THOUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DOES NOT FAVORABLE SUPERCELL SHEAR...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THERE TOO. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS TOO. THE HRRR AND ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HOP
WRF...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
VIGOROUS EARLY...AND THEN WANE AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY USES
UP MUCH OF THE CAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE DONE BY 10 PM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ON FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING...AND INTERSTATE
94 IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR SOME FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE...EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT STORMS SKIRTING AREA CAUSING VCTS AT A FEW
SITES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN WEST
AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT DAYBREAK BEFORE
SETTING UP BREAK IN ACTION UNTIL LATER IN DAY WHEN MAIN WAVE
APPROACHES. ALL IN ALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT DURING
WORST OF STORMS...WITH DETAILS HARD TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
OUT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING BETWEEN GENOA AND LANSING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
423 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LATER DURING THE DAY TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TOMORROW WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL RETURN THE THREAT
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A MOIST SW FLOW RIGHT
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING PLENTY OF AMPLE MOISTURE
TOWARDS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. PWAT VALUES WERE AROUND 1.00
INCH ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING...AND MODELS PROJECTIONS SHOW THIS
RISING TO NEARLY 1.50 INCHES AT ALBANY TOWARDS SUNRISE...WHICH
WOULD BE NEARING ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA FOR NEARLY TWO DAYS...AND IS FINALLY GETTING THE PUSH IT
NEEDS TO OVERCOME THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE...RADAR
TRENDS AND HIRES MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 3KM HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALL
SUGGEST THAT NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY. ANY THUNDER LOOKS RATHER ISOLATED DUE TO
THE STABLE LOW LEVELS...BUT WITH SHOWALTER VALUES CLOSE TO ZERO...THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER HERE AND THERE.
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
THERE SHOULD BE BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND WITH OUR REGION IN THE
WARM SECTOR...WE WILL HAVE A MILD DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS TO START THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
OCCUR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DECENT MIXING
WILL OCCUR...AS A S-SW BREEZE AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...THERE LOOKS
TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. WITH THE BREAKS OF
SUN...THERE MAY BE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY TO
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE THUNDER. STILL...NO SEVERE WX IS
ANTICIPATED...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...AND LOW
DEWPOINTS/WEAK FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM BECOMING TOO
STRONG. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DOWN SOUTH WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AND A COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND DEEP MIXING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY
AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK...BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY...AS
NORTHERN AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...MAX TEMPS MAY
REACH IN THE LOW 80S. THE BEST CHC OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WE WONT INCLUDE THUNDER JUST YET...AS
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TOO HIGH JUST
YET...LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AS UPPER PATTEN BECOMES
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS NOAM.
MONDAY NIGHT...
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS JAMES/HUDSON BAY AND
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE
WARM FRONT TO BE SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL REGION WITH
AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND WAS FOLLOWED.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS ARE TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RISING
SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER WILL SEE A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR WET WEATHER WITH
WESTERN AREAS REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING WITH RISING HEIGHTS WHICH
SUGGESTS ANY SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND A BIT MORE HUMID WITH MANY AREAS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES JUST TO THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
TRAJECTORIES FORECAST TO ORIGINATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE INFLUENCE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO BRING
ABOUT A MARINE INFLUENCE. SO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
THIS IS WHERE THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z/GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE 00Z/ECMWF AND 18Z/0509
DGEX KEEPING THE FRONT FURTHER UPSTREAM AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE WITH A
LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL
KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND ADVECT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF HIGHER PWATS INTO THE REGION. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR ENTIRE REGION. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THIS WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT
TOO MUCH RAIN BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STILL
RATHER MILD BUT NOT FULLY REALIZING THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
LIMITED MIXING AND CLOUD COVER.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN A MARINE TYPE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AN OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE BEING OBSERVED. REGIONAL
RADAR REVEALS A BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PER
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITIES FORECASTS...MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE DEPARTING BETWEEN 11-13Z AND HAVE FORECAST THIS WITHIN THE TAFS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...MAIN FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM AND WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING AS LOW
AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL END BY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
FROM THE NORTH WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEARBY THE AREA.
RAINFALL TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT ALL WATERWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL INITIALLY BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT IN NATURE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODELS TRENDS CLOSELY
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...AS MORE CONCENTRATED AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
COULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR OUR AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LATER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE FRONT...WHICH HAD BEEN STALLED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...IS NOW LOCATED
JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MUCH OF OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE REMAIN
SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COURTESY OF A MARINE INFLUENCE
WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE FAIRLY STEEP SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HI
RES MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...SO POPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY AND REMAIN NEAR
CURRENT READINGS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...THE SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THESE AREAS GOING WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS WILL END IN ALL AREAS. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS OVERUNNING
MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO
PCPN HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE UNSETTLED
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN APPROACH
80 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...ONLY GENERIC NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION IN TERM OF
TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE ON
TUESDAY...SO WILL STILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WARM MAX TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT ALONG
WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL DUE
TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT. WE COULD GET A BREAK IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
STILL BE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
MORE WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COMPLICATING
MATTERS IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST...BUT IS
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN A MARINE TYPE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AN OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE BEING OBSERVED. REGIONAL
RADAR REVEALS A BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PER
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITIES FORECASTS...MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE DEPARTING BETWEEN 11-13Z AND HAVE FORECAST THIS WITHIN THE TAFS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...MAIN FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM AND WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION. THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALL
WATERWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND 80S UNTIL A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE WEAKENING WAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLEARING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE.
TEMPS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE 60S AS OF 02Z.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT...
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT
TAKING MOST OF THE NIGHT TO SAG INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. 00Z NAM
AND CURRENT HRRR HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND MAINLY AFTER 07-08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO 20-30 FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SPAWNED FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THUS...WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING BACK HIGH CHANCES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THAT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. SO...KEPT POPS SUNDAY...ALBEIT LOW POPS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BLEND OF COOLER 12Z NAM AND WARMER 12Z GFS LOOKS OK FOR THE SHORT
TERM AND MATCHES WELL WITH 12Z ALLBLEND. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A RAIN EVENING SOMETIME ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS LOW. GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM A BLOCKING RIDGE WAS IN PLACE. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF AND WITH THE BLOCKING
RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE EAST...A SLOWER PROGRESSION IS PREFERRED.
NONETHELESS...PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL TREND POPS AND TEMPS
LOWERS AMID A COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100600Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING VARIABILITY ABOUT RAIN/THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A COUPLE ARE SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OUT AND RAIN
OR POSSIBLY THUNDER ALONG AN EAST-WEST AREA THAT WOULD INCLUDE ALL
SITES BUT KLAF. PUT A TEMPO SHOWER IN AT KHUF AND KIND AND PUT A
PREVAILING SHOWER IN AT KBMG. GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH THIS SO INCLUDED THEM AS WELL. ANY
RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 13Z AND THEN
VFR FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND 80S UNTIL A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE WEAKENING WAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLEARING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE.
TEMPS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE 60S AS OF 02Z.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT...
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT
TAKING MOST OF THE NIGHT TO SAG INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. 00Z NAM
AND CURRENT HRRR HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND MAINLY AFTER 07-08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO 20-30 FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SPAWNED FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THUS...WITH THE FRONT NEARBY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY...WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING BACK HIGH CHANCES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THAT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. SO...KEPT POPS SUNDAY...ALBEIT LOW POPS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BLEND OF COOLER 12Z NAM AND WARMER 12Z GFS LOOKS OK FOR THE SHORT
TERM AND MATCHES WELL WITH 12Z ALLBLEND. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...AND LATEST INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DRY SLOT ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT TIMING BECOMES INCONSISTENT IN MODELS AT THAT
POINT. THE EURO BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLIER THAN THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST INITIALIZATION FAVORS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP INITIALIZATION FORECAST UNTIL MODELS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 60S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100600Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING VARIABILITY ABOUT RAIN/THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A COUPLE ARE SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OUT AND RAIN
OR POSSIBLY THUNDER ALONG AN EAST-WEST AREA THAT WOULD INCLUDE ALL
SITES BUT KLAF. PUT A TEMPO SHOWER IN AT KHUF AND KIND AND PUT A
PREVAILING SHOWER IN AT KBMG. GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH THIS SO INCLUDED THEM AS WELL. ANY
RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 13Z AND THEN
VFR FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND THEN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS.
STRONG 130 KT JET ALSO ANALYZED COMING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL OTHER WEAKER WAVES MOVING IN THE
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THESE WAVES WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM FREEPORT ILLINOIS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2AM WERE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
THE LOWEST READINGS SEEN IN THE WAPSI RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
RESULTING IN A S-SE RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY THAN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DEEP MIXING...DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...AND AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH MAY EVEN APPROACH 80 DEGREES. SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND RAP TRENDS SHOW
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AROUND 21Z ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT TODAY AND PROPAGATE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALES
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHEN STORMS INITIATE. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALTHOUGH MARGINAL MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS APPEARS
AT THIS TIME A BETTER POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...FORCING PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE BEST
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 00Z SUN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THOSE THAT RECEIVE A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO LAG THE GFS/NAM TIMING. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
AND A WARM FRONT NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH EAST MONDAY AND EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INFLUX OF THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SUPPLY OF UNSTABLE AIR TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT SOME
OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADIC THREAT
WILL BE THE GREATEST NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OR
SOUTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PW/S EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHILE THE AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SO KEPT THE FORECAST QPF LOWER
THAN WPC.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
OR MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWFA IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SLOWER ECM PROGS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING MOST DAYS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER THE COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
10-15 KTS BEHIND PASSING RIDGE ON SAT. HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS
SFC WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ELEVATED PLUME OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID SAT EVENING ACRS
CENTRAL IA...WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST TO GET IN THE VCNTY OF CID...DBQ AND POSSIBLY BRL FROM
03Z-06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...
CIGS STILL MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a zonal flow
aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough is pushing southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near
the surface...a weak lee side trough of low pressure is set up along
the Colorado and Kansas border. Drier air remains in place across
the area with surface dewpoints in the 30s(F) across central and
much of southwest Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
The upper level jet is progged to continue moving east this
afternoon with western Kansas coming under the left exit region of
upper jet this evening. Model soundings from the NAM and RUC13 show
fairly deep mixing with some small elevated CAPE developing along
the Colorado border by late this afternoon. The last few runs of the
HRRR have been consistent in showing isolated showers developing
along the Colorado border and moving into west central and southwest
Kansas for a few hours this evening. Will add this to the grids for
this evening.
As the weak shortwave moves over late tonight, another weak surge of
high pressure will push into southwest Kansas late tonight and early
Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s over west
central Kansas where dewpoints will be lower and winds could go
light for a few hours around sunrise. Low temperatures in south
central Kansas may only drop into the mid 50s where dewpoints are
higher.
During the day Saturday, mid level flow over the central Plains
gradually becomes southwesterly with time as an upper level
shortwave trough digs into the western states. This will result in
surface cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado during the afternoon.
Areas of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border should see high
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with
southerly winds increasing during the day. This could result in
critical fire weather conditions over far southwest Kansas in the
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
The first issue during this period will be Saturday night. Rich
gulf moisture is not too far southeast, meaning it`s as close as
extreme southeast Oklahoma and north Texas. With the vigorous jet
and upper level anomaly digging into the Rockies, the surface
response will be rapidly falling pressure in the lee of the
Rockies. The surface low should deepen in southeast Colorado.
Boundary layer winds will become east to southeast and the
aforementioned rich moisture will begin stream northwest towards
my forecast area. Warm frontogenesis will take place and this will
advance rapidly north by Saturday night. I see a small opportunity
of elevated and nocturnal convection developing along the nose of
the moisture surge across my far southeast area after dark
Saturday night. Confidence is not high though.
Sunday will be the "warm" day in advance of a strong surge of cold
air that will be sweeping into the plains as the digging system
into the Rockies lifts out into the plains. There should be a
rather tight gradient of temperatures across my area and will
adjust the grids accordingly. With the rich gulf moisture, strong
uvv and surface convergence along the front the chance for
thunderstorms will be high late Sunday and Sunday evening. Behind
the front there should be continued lift and with strong cold air
advection there should be low stratus and at least drizzle, if not
light rain. Monday should be a rather raw day with clouds,
blustery winds and some precipitation. My forecast highs may be a
little optimistic but the trend is to definitely cooler
temperatures.
Beyond Monday, the flow will be northwest flow aloft with perhaps
another minor wave sliding southeast which might promote showers
about mid week. Overall temperatures will be below normal seasonal
normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Saturday
evening. As for winds, light southeasterly winds will persist across
central and southwest Kansas overnight as a lee side trough remains
anchored along the Kansas and Colorado border. Winds will become
more light and variable Saturday as the surface trough shifts slowly
eastward across western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 81 43 57 / 0 20 50 40
GCK 52 77 41 55 / 0 10 50 50
EHA 53 78 41 55 / 0 10 30 30
LBL 55 82 43 59 / 0 10 30 20
HYS 55 77 44 56 / 0 10 60 50
P28 63 91 49 65 / 0 40 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hutton
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Sat May 10 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
Did an update to increase POPs west of I-65 overnight. Models
aren`t handling this evening`s convection very well. Storms
continue to re-generate from SE Missouri through south
Indiana/central KY. This is courtesy of multiple waves riding
northeast along the south side of an upper trough to our north. The
associate sfc boundary still sits well to our west over central
MO/IL. Therefore, feel scattered shower/storms will continue
overnight. A few high-res models and the 18Z/0Z NAM runs indicate a
more solid area of showers/storms may form in our area (mainly over
KY) late tonight into tomorrow morning. Will continue 60-70% POPs
during that time frame. Think that storms will be mostly sub-severe
overnight in an elevated environment. Pea size hail and perhaps a
wind gust up to 40 mph may be possible in the strongest storms.
Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts. Low temps will be in the
lower 60s overnight.
Issued at 810 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
Did a quick update to better time POPs as the line of showers and
storms moves through the region. The line has become pretty solid
as far as coverage goes, but overall strength of storms has
declined. The strongest storms will likely contain 35 to 45 mph
wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. However, the convection is
moving into a more unfavorable environment so do expect storms to
continue to decrease in strength as the evening wears on. This
round of storms should pass through the area by midnight. We`ll see
a break in convection with another round looking likely late tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
In the near term, rainfall from this morning continues to move NE
but is still hanging in there over east-central KY. The rain will
exit our forecast area in the next 1-2 hrs. Otherwise, conditions
are dry with ample cloud cover over the rest of the region, with
some cumulus clouds now starting to emerge with modest diurnal
warming and decent low-level moisture. Nevertheless, the atmosphere
remains relatively stable at this time, as evidenced by current SPC
mesoanalysis. Thus, expect mainly rain free weather for the next few
hours over central KY and south-central IN as temperatures top out
thru the 70s to around 80 west.
Meanwhile, convection continues to slowly develop along and ahead of
a low-level frontal boundary and confluent zone from southwest IL
into south-central MO. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows an axis of -4
to -6 surface-based LI values and around 1000 J/kg CAPE in this
axis. All short-range models and the latest HRRR and SPC SREF
suggest this convection will continue to develop and expand E-NE
late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings in our area show
lapse rates increasing late this afternoon and evening, especially
aloft resulting in a more conducive environment in time to develop
and maintain convection within. As a result, will ramp up POPs this
evening, first over south-central IN and northwest KY, then eastward
later tonight.
The best chances for severe storms are to our west in the area of
the current SPC severe thunderstorm watch, enhanced by good
instability and deep-layer speed shear (with a strong upper jet
advancing eastward). As the storms move east later tonight, they may
have a tendency to become slightly elevated with modest nocturnal
cooling over our area. Nevertheless, the boundary layer may stay
adequately mixed to allow some downward momentum transport from the
strongest cells to produce isolated strong or damaging winds, mainly
along and west of the I-65 corridor. After the storms move through,
can`t totally rule out additional scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms well after midnight and into Saturday morning as a
mid-level shortwave approaches.
During the day Saturday, the shortwave will pass through our area.
This could continue the chance for scattered showers and storms over
eastern and southern forecast area in the morning, but should
effectively clear things out later in the day. As a result, much of
the afternoon should be precipitation free with temperatures rising
through the 70s. If enough sunshine occurs in the afternoon, could
see around 80 or lower 80s in western half of forecast area.
Air mass will begin to destabilize again Saturday afternoon in the
wake of the morning showers, but forcing should be quite limited
in the wake of the morning shortwave. Therefore, expect only
isolated cell redevelopment by late afternoon mainly over western
and northern areas of forecast area. This activity could become a
little more prevalent, especially northern half of forecast area,
Saturday night if a model weak signal of another approaching
shortwave proves correct.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 9 2014
The long term period will be fairly active with multiple chances for
showers and thunderstorms. In addition, a big shift in the upper air
pattern will bring much cooler temperatures by the end of the next
work week.
For Sunday through Monday ridging will be building aloft. At the
surface, high pressure will be centered off the east coast.
Southerly winds on the back side of this high pressure will usher in
warm and moist air to the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Sunday
will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Soundings show surface based
instability developing during the afternoon and little to no cap
across the area. However, with the lack of a trigger, storms look to
remain scattered in nature and should mostly dissipate during the
evening hours. For Monday soundings show more of a cap in place, so
rain chances look to be less than Sunday. However, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will still be possible. Highs will be
in the mid 80s.
A cold front will approach and move through the area during the
Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. There is still quite a bit of
discrepancy in the timing of this frontal passage. Thus, have gone
with pops over a wider time frame than is expected with the frontal
passage to account for uncertainty. For now, it looks like
Tuesday/Tuesday night will be the best chance for showers and
storms. However, if slower solutions pan out, chances will linger
into Wednesday.
The timing issue with the front will also have quite an impact on
temperatures mid week as a trough will move in behind this system.
This will usher in cooler air for the end of the week. Highs
Thursday and Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s with lows in the
upper 40s. There may be a slight chance of rain toward the end of
the long term as a weak disturbance moves through the flow aloft,
but timing with these is usually fairly questionable this far out.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat May 10 2014
A rather complex TAF forecast is in store, as several boundaries
from earlier convection are currently sparking convection. Over the
next couple of hours, convection should remain scattered in nature.
However, there is a subtle signal in guidance that convection will
increase before dawn as another shortwave trough ejects north into
the region. The best coverage of this precip looks to be across
KBWG and KLEX. KSDF looks to remain on the northern edge of the
better coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms, but certainly
they cannot be ruled out at any time overnight into Saturday
morning. MVFR ceilings will likely move into all terminals
overnight, especially as the steadier precipitation pushes in just
before dawn.
After more widespread coverage of showers/storms Saturday morning,
they should become more isolated in nature by the afternoon hours.
Winds will be out of the SSW at 10-15 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE IT HAS BECOME STATIONARY. LARGE
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION IS GRADUALLY ERODING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELPS CUT OFF MOISTURE SOURCE. TEMPS SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE JUST IN CASE
OF ANY UNEXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER STORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON
WITH THIS AIR MASS. ANY HEAVIER STORMS THAT REDEVELOP WILL EASILY
PRODUCE SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES AND OVERWHELM NATURAL DRAINAGE.
ASSUMING MOTHER NATURE COOPERATES...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AN EXTENSION TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONCERNING RAINFALL. EURO IS
GENERALLY THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE DRIEST
AND THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH EVEN GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERALLY INDICATE A 30 PERCENT SPREAD IN POP FORECASTS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR TODAY. GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM
LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER POP SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY ACCURATE
AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 8 RUNS. AM NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING THE AREA OUT AS THE HRRR WHICH CUTS OFF NEARLY ALL
RAINFALL BY 15Z WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING...BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SIMPLY DUE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND A LACK OF
ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM...WILL BE RELYING ON DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR CONVECTION. WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...THAT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 12
TO 18 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOCAL FROPA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND...
WHICH RESULTS IN A FROPA EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EURO BOTH AGREE
THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ALSO DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE AFTERNOONS DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT LATE
IN THE WEEK IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FALL ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM MID MORNING ON AS
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 85 70 / 40 10 30 10
BTR 85 70 87 72 / 40 10 30 10
ASD 82 69 83 71 / 60 20 40 10
MSY 83 70 84 72 / 60 20 30 10
GPT 80 72 83 71 / 70 20 30 10
PQL 80 69 84 71 / 70 30 40 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
FELICIANA.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
NRN MAINE. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS NH. PARTIAL CLEARING TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE INTERIOR
HIGH LANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EARLY IN
THE EVENING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOADED HRRR FOR SKY/POP GRIDS THROUGH 12Z USED A BLEND OF
NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR BALANCE OF PERIOD. LOADED NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF
FOR HRLY TEMP/DP/WNDS. HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...20 PERCENT OVER WATER. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN MONDAY WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE.
A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SLATED TO BE ACROSS THE FAR N AND W.
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE DAYCREW`S SETUP AND CONTINUE W/A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS(30-40%) INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AXIS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
DOES SHIFT TO THE N AND E AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS
AND SREF. FURTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE
DOWNEAST, PRETTY MUCH RAIN-FREE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWENAST AREAS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.
THE BIGGER CHALLENGE WILL BE MONDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING DISCONTINUITY W/THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS COURSE OF BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE GFS WANT TO DRY IT OUT W/HIGH PRES
NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SECTIONS. STAYED CLOSER TO AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH BLENDING IN THE ECMWF AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. QPF FOR
THIS TERM IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.15".
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TERM.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. COOLER FOR TUESDAY W/AOB NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF THE E BY THURSDAY W/A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE DAYCREW`S TREND AND CARRY THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE UPSIDE TO THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SKYCON WILL BREAK LATE MORNING BECMG
MVFR INTO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL RETURN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MAINLY N OF KHUL. MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY ALL THE WAY TO
KHUL AND VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. MVFR CIGS COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR
KBGR AND KBHB MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A ENE FLOW SETS UP.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. WINDS 10-15 KTS
W/GUST TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY DROPPING OFF TO 10 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS
W/GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
DOWN FROM CANADA AND THE FLOW BECOME ENE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-4 FT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOWER LAYERS ARE FAIRLY
DRY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING IN SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND THE HRRR AND WRF ALSO HINT AS SOMETHING VERY SPOTTY
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE KEPT A FEW SPRINKLES
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THERE WOULD BE ANYTHING MEASURABLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS...BUT BEFORE MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH A LITTLE. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST QUASI-
ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AT
00Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TURNING THE FLOW OVER OUR
AREA MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...LIKELY NEARING NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...A TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST A 50-60KT JET STREAK
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE ENOUGH THERMAL ADVECTION
FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WILL BE ENHANCED.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-70% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED ACROSS OUR EAST. AT
THIS TIME ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK.
ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK ALSO SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT POPS STILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY AS THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH INCREASES. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN
ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BACK
NORTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT...PERHAPS PUSHING INTO OUR EXTREME
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT
LIFT ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC-
SCALE OMEGA DUE TO INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...APPEARS AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD CERTAINLY BE REALIZED OVER OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART OUR AREA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THUS ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPIDLY DECREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THUS ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE
OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THAT BEING SAID...CONTINUED
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION HEADING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS CLEARING THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...OF A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND PERHAPS PROVIDING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS FEATURE IS NOT
HIGH...BUT ALLBLEND PRESENTED A ~20% POP TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND OPTED TO KEEP THIS POP AS IS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEW POINT READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL
INFILTRATE MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS ROBUST FARTHER
NORTHWEST INTO OUR AREA...BUT AGAIN IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN SNEAK
INTO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY VALUES COULD CERTAINLY CLIMB INTO THE 1000-
2000J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ~50KTS
ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SO...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA...IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO YORK. A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RESIDE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BELOIT TO HEBRON. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THESE THREATS IN THE HWO
FOR SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE RISES POST-FROPA
COULD PROVIDE A STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUSTAINED WIND OF 25-30KTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED AND AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION SUCH
CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50 ON MONDAY AND IN THE 60S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
INITIALLY DURING THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER ABOVE THE SFC WINDS WILL
BE MUCH STRONGER DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET AND INCLUDED A
PERIOD OF LLVL WIND SHEAR. BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL
TRANSITION WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. IN DEEP MIXING
WIND GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND SWITCH
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE MID/HIGH LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS WILL BE WEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE LOWEST...THE
WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
EXPECT THERE TO ONLY BE A SMALL TIME FRAME WHERE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IS EVEN CLOSE. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...AS THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS MOVE A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALONG WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE IS AN INCREASE IN MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE
GFS FORECASTING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT 300MB JETLET AND
A 55KT 500MB JETLET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO
INCREASES SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND JETLETS...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DECREASES SOME.
MOS GUIDANCE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...IN
GENERAL AROUND 60F...WHILE BOTH THE HRRR AND PARTICULARLY THE RAP
MARKEDLY DIMINISH SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATTER
WELL INTO THE 40S OR BELOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...THE GFS DOES
SHOW A LARGE DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH
THAT THERE IS AN 850MB THETA-E MINIMUM BISECTING CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 00Z. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 850MB AND
500MB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS ONLY FORECASTS SUCH LAPSE RATES
TO ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE SATURDAY WHILE THE NAM IS NOTICEABLY MORE
UNSTABLE. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE REGIME OF BETTER 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
ABOUT THE TIME OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND JETLET APPROACH...WITH
LESSER CHANCES PARTICULARLY FROM U.S. 1 AND EAST. THIS FORECAST WILL
GRADUATE POPS SIMILARLY...HIGH CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1.
IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...850MB WINDS DO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40KT...AND IF THE LOW-LEVELS DO MIX
MORE THAN EXPECTED...THEN AN ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE OR SEVERE GUST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST ECHOES. ON SATURDAY...EVEN MODEST SHOWERS
WERE APPARENTLY RESULTING IN SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. IN THE HWO
WILL LIKELY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM WITH A WIND
GUST TO 50 MPH AS THE BEST TEMPERATURE RISE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIE FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS LESS.
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIMINISH LATE...AND WILL HOLD ONTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL LATE
AT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TODAY...LOWER 80S FAR NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 80S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 30 MPH
DESPITE THE CLOUDS TOWARD THE TRIAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID 60S TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA...BUT THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS APPEAR CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...MID-LEVEL FEATURES CURRENTLY SEEM TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. IF A SHOWER DOES
OCCUR...CURRENTLY IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVERALL ARE ONLY NEAR AN INCH TOWARD THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...STILL LESS THAN
VALUES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: RIDGING ALOFT AND A BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARM MOIST RETURN
FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK SHEAR OVER THE AREA...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE LOW
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...AS THE GFS (FASTER) AND ECMWF
(SLOWER) CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN TIMING BY APPROX 24 HOURS OR SO...
BOTH HAVING SLOWED DOWN SOME OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS BEING THURSDAY
AFT/EVE. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST ALONG THE FRONT...
AND WITH THE BETTER FORCING DURING THIS TIME...MAY MAKE MENTION OF
SOME POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE HWO. WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES IN
HOPES OF NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND HOPEFULLY
INCREASING CONFIDENCE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH THEY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND THUS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY...
DECREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE 06Z VALID TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1...OR AT THE
KRDU AND PARTICULARLY THE TRIAD TAF SITES. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
INCREASES SUCH THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A GUSTY
WIND...AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY...FOR NOW TO 35KT...AT
THE KINT AND KGSO TAF SITES. ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WINDS DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THR PROBABILITY OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASES...CURRENTLY FIRST TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
UPDATE TO POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
LATEST HRRR MOVES SHOWERS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AFTER 2
AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SHOWERS TAKING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD TREND AS THEY BEGIN TO
MOVE TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS THE WEST. NEW NAM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH CENTRAL AFTER NOON SATURDAY WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP LIMITED
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA LIKELY WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...BUT A BIT
SLOWER. ADJUSTED THIS TO A MORE MID EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH
INITIALLY LOW POPS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL USE FOR
PRECIPITATION DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
STATE.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT...LATEST 17 UTC HRRR AND 18 UTC RAP ARE INDICATING BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT MAKING IT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR AFTER. BY THIS TIME THINK THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.
SATURDAY...A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE EJECTING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW AND ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
AN ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO SATURDAY...MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PUTTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE WEST SUNDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH FROM CANADA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE EAST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A SFC LOW.
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE EAST ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOME LOCATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WED-FRI WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES AND THE UPPER
JET ALOFT CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS JUST WEST OF THE MONTANA DAKOTA BORDER AT 06
UTC TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
06 UTC TAF CYCLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM WEST
TO EAST. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KISN...MVFR...STARTING AT 03 UTC. HOWEVER WITH THE SHOWERS
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
ARKANSAS TAF SITES MAY SEE VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY IN LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO PULL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO MOST OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF FAVORING SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY TOWARD
MIDNIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE
MID LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN COLDER UPPER LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX. REMAINDER OF THE GOING FORECAST OKAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES IN
LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY AT THE ARKANSAS
TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE VERY SLOWLY SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESSENTIALLY SEPARATES THE 45-60F DEWPOINTS IN NE OK
AND 60+ DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE. THERE REMAINS A SLIM CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK/NW
AR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
OVER ERN KS SWWD TO THE TRIPLE POINT REGION OVER NWRN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BULK OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS KS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS NE OK...IN ZONE OF 45-55KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SWRN STATES. PERSISTENT/MOIST SWLY UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS
IN SEVERAL PIECES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
THE SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL FAVOR BOTH PRE AND POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/CMC OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/DGEX...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
FALLS OFF SOME TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE ECMWF/CMC HANG
ON TO RAINFALL WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
COOLER/DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND MOVE OVER THE REGION AND THEN WASH OUT ON SATURDAY. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING A DECREASE IN THE SC PIEDMONT AND THE NC MOUNTAINS.
AS 1015 PM...KGSP 88D INDICATED SEVERAL PATCHES OF LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
CIN WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE. THE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...I WILL KEEP LOW CHC TO SCHC
POPS. THE HRRR INDICATES A FEW POCKETS OF SFC LOW COND PRES DEF
ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS AND I-77 CORRDIOR BY DAYBREAK. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER WET GROUND.
AS OF 750 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS RUNNING FROM
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. AT THIS RATE...THE LINE WOULD REACH KAND AT 0025
Z...KGMU 0035Z...AND KGSP AROUND 1Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST TIMING.
AS OF 535 PM...TCLT AND KGSP RADARS INDICATE A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE CLT METRO AREA AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING OVER EXTREME NE GA. THE STORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAVE A
HISTORY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL. THE THREAT OF GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AS DCAPE VALUES BORDER ON 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SHOULD RESULT AS THE CLUSTER TRACK
NE ACROSS CLT. THE LINE TO THE WEST SHOULD SWEEP EAST OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS. I WILL MAKE CHANGES TO MOST FORECAST FIELDS TO ALIGN
WITH LATEST OBS AND THINKING.
AS OF 230 PM...THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO CATCH UP WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACRS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
THE NC PIEDMONT (WHERE THEY EARLIER SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY) THIS
AFTN. I HAVE BUMPED UP POP TO CHC IN THE ERN ZONES WHERE IT USED TO
BE DRY OR ONLY SLGT CHC. THERE IS STILL ONLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
PER THE LAPS ANALYSIS...AND SHEAR IS WEEK. SO EXPECT MAINLY SHWRS
AND A FEW GARDEN VARIETY TSTMS. WITH THAT SAID...THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG ACRS THE ERN 1/3RD
OF THE CWFA. SO EVEN SHWRS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINK
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...GIVEN THE LOW CAPE AND SHEAR. TO THE
WEST...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...WITH JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS.
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SHWRS SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. BETTER INSTBY AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SWRN
AND CENTRAL NC MTNS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT. SO THE POPS RAMPING UP TO SOLID CHC TO
LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING...HIGHEST WEST...STILL LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...THE DEEP LAYER RH MAXIMUM AXIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWFA
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL STILL BE BACK WEST ACRS
THE OH/TN VLYS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE IN GENERAL FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN SHWR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SCATTERED LINGERING
ACTIVITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S MTNS AND LWR-MID 60S
PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY...SOME OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF
MCS ACRS THE OH VLY...TURNING TOWARD THE SW TOWARD THE NRN MTNS
AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WITH NO MENTION OF THIS IN THE
SPC OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE...I ACTUALLY EXPECT A LULL IN COVERAGE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS INSTBY WILL BE AT ITS LOWEST.
STILL...POPS ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE ONGOING MOIST SW FLOW.
THERE SHUD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY...SO IT/S DIFFICULT
TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTBY THERE WILL BE FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTN. WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC EAST TO LIKELY WEST FOR SHWRS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY MODEST CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. SO SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. THE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHUD KEEP TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S WEST TO
LWR 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRI...MAJOR HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE SE LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL BE FULLY IN PLACE BY MON...WITH A 588 DM H5 RIDGE ENTRENCHED
OVER THE SE. MAINLY A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE SUN AND MON AFTN/EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT S TO SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVIDE ISOLD SHRA COVERAGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS
EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OF THE
WEEKEND MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
INSOLATION IMPROVES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS AND SLIGHT MID
LEVEL DRYING OCCURS BEFORE THE SE RIDGE REBOUNDS IN EARNEST. WILL
FEATURE SOLID SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...EACH
AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT MINS AND MAXES TO RUN TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS AND DEEP UPPER
TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE LONG MODELS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SINCE YESTERDAYS FCST YET
THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 TO 24HRS FASTER WITH THE TROFS APPROACH
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN. THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FCST
HAS BEEN TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS A SLOWER...ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH I
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE. AT ANY RATE...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
THE TROF SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND STILL BE OVER THE REGION BY NEW DAY
7.
AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE CWFA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS WITH THE UPPER
LVL PATTERN...THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE FRONT IS
NOW MORE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS AND BY EARLY FRI...THE SYSTEM SHOULD EAST OF THE CWFA. SOME
DEGREE OF DRIER AND COOLER SFC RIDGING SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FROPA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODELS STILL DEVELOP SOME SORT
OF LOW TO OUR SE JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE CANADIAN NOW TRYING TO SPIN UP A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL
SYSTEM. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. I DID PUSH BACK THE BEST WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12HRS BASED ON A SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH AND FROPA.
BY 00Z FRI...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF FRI. TEMPS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT
ON WED AND THURS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THE FRONT PASSES THRU.
ON FRI...VALUES WILL PERSIST AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF LOW VFR CIGS
BEFORE DAWN...OTHERWISE A MID TO HIGH CIG WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS VFR VSBY AT
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH RAIN SOAKED GROUND IN THE AREA...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ON VFR. ARES JUST WEST OF KCLT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAWN....DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG
RELATED VSBY RESTRICITONS TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND WITH RAIN SOAKED
GROUND...THE FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BENEATH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BY DAWN...THAT
GRADUALLY BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON DURING MAXIMUM HEATING.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL
JET WINDS QUICKLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK. OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS SHOW
40-50KT WINDS WITHIN 1 KFT OF THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING
MAXIMIZED OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THERE WILL THEN LIKELY BE A
SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS LATE MORNING BEFORE STRONG WINDS TAKE OVER IN
THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING IS PROGGED TO BE APPROXIMATELY TO 600MB.
HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND THIS LEVEL ARE NOT THAT NOTABLE. AN INCREASE
IN THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR
TROUTDALE OR. STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WILL BRING THE WINDS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN A MOISTURE SURGE BACK TO THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY TO THE STATE LINE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE
A SHOT AT SOME BRIEF LOW STRATUS ON SUNDAY MORNING COMING UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...
PRIMARY FOCUS REVOLVED AROUND THE IMPACTS OF A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS LATE
SUNDAY. SHALLOW RICH MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHUNTED EAST WITH ONSET OF MIXING AND FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...WITH A MORE DIFFUSE DRY-LINE EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST BORDER AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. BACKING FLOW
SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD PULL TIGHTENED DRY-LINE WEST TO NEAR THE
CAP-ROCK AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THOUGH STILL DISAGREEMENT OVER
ABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ITSELF. A
SHARP COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE NEEDED TO
ACTIVATE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AS IT NEARS THE DRY-LINE. WE
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS ATTEMPT WITH NET IMPACT TO
RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW MENTION MAINLY EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY WITH
STIFF NORTHERLY BREEZES AS A 1030+ MB SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS EVENTUALLY MAY LEAD TO A RISK FOR
A LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LATEST WRF/NAM THREW A BIT MORE DOUBT INTO THE
EARLY WEEK FORECAST WITH A SHARPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY ALONG
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR. WE HAVE
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ALSO LOWERED
TUESDAY MAXIMUMS A LITTLE MORE THOUGH NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. DRY
OTHERWISE WITH SLOW WARMING LATER IN THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNLIKELY TO RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDE SPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BUT LOW END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF
AND INTERMITTENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS
AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH AT THE PEAK. TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL HAVE NO ISSUE IN GENERATING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS
SHARP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS
AREA LATE BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD STRONGER WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY THE SPC. WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE QUESTION ABOUT THE TOTAL MASS AND CONTINUITY OF FUEL LOAD
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE ON-GOING DROUGHT THOUGH
AGREE THAT EVEN MORE LIMITED FUELS WILL BE PUSHED HARD BY SUNDAYS
EXPECTED 25-30 MPH WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS WATCH AREA STILL VALID SO NO
CHANGES THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 56 88 42 62 / 0 0 0 10 0
TULIA 90 59 91 45 64 / 0 0 0 10 0
PLAINVIEW 92 62 92 47 66 / 0 0 0 10 0
LEVELLAND 92 60 92 48 69 / 0 0 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 64 93 49 70 / 0 0 0 10 0
DENVER CITY 92 58 93 50 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 93 62 93 51 72 / 0 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 96 69 96 56 70 / 0 0 10 20 10
SPUR 95 69 96 57 73 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 98 71 97 62 75 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.
&&
$$
01/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT...A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH...PLUS
HEATING WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED JUST SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. OUR
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS APPEARS ON TRACK.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS WEAK...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE MORNING SURFACE-
BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -4. EXPECT AFTERNOON VALUES AROUND -5. THE
KCAE 88D SHOWED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
30 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET. THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PLUS EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS POTENTIALLY AIDING DOWNDRAFTS COULD
POSSIBLY HELP SUPPORT NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10000 FEET ALSO SUPPORT
HAIL.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND BAND OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH HEATING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT VERIFICATION...UPPER RIDGING...AND THE
DRY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE MOS CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND SFC CDFNT OUT EARLIER WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BY 24HRS.
AS A RESULT CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPS ARE DIFFERENT. FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES MID-WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
90 TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IN THE 50S FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND THE FORCING WILL BE WEAK. EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WIND...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP CAUSE FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE MVFR OR IFR FOG WITH THE
GREATER RESTRICTIONS AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
252 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING REMAINS THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY NICE
DAY OVERALL. SLUG OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER MISSOURI IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...MUCH MORE DEFINED AT 250MB THAN AT 500MB
WITH VERY LITTLE REFLECTION AT 700MB. DRY LOW LEVELS AND ABSENCE OF
FORCING SHOULD KEEP THIS ONLY A HIGH CLOUD PRODUCER AND MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO FORM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIKELY THE DEVELOPING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST INTO ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS
INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH FAR LESSER SUPPORT
FROM PRECIP FARTHER NORTH. HAVE DECREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
NORTHERN 2/3RD OF CWA...MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS MOSTLY FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE AS IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT IT COULD STAY
DRY ALTOGETHER NORTH OF I-80. FAR SOUTHERN CWA STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER
POPS THERE.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH A SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY BUT
OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING LOOKS SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT IN STRONG HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM
OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT
REMNANT MCV FROM TODAY`S CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS OR FORCING
ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD ARGUE FOR
LARGELY A RAIN-FREE DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SCALE
BACK POPS SOME. WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND WITH
STILL RESPECTABLE VALUES OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE SEVERE. NOT
TO MENTION THAT ILLINOIS WARM FRONTS SEEM TO LIKE TO PRODUCE
"SURPRISES" THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST AN ILLINOIS
SHORE LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IF WARM
FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS MORE BACKED AHEAD OF IT.
ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT DID KEEP LAKE COOLING IN THE GRIDS
SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN WITH FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH
OUR CWA JUST UNSEASONABLY WARM AND STEAMY WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO
DIP BELOW 70 DEGREES AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS IS THE ODD MAN OUT
KEEPING WARM FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
CWA. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT RELUCTANT TO GO TOO LOW GIVEN GFS SOLUTION AND POSSIBILITY
THAT EVEN IF OTHER MODELS VERIFY OUTFLOW COULD PUSH SOUTH AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. UNUSUALLY HIGH
PWATS AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF WARM FRONT RAISE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...THOUGH THANKFULLY THAT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A THREAT NORTH OF THE STATE LINE IN WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S LIKELY SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL PROBABLY SPILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...BUT AS THIS CONVECTION
MOVES AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND INTO MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WOULD EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO GET ABOVE 20C MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXTENT OF
DEBRIS FROM SUNDAY`S PLAINS CONVECTION AND LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES
HAVE PROMPTED ME TO BE MORE RESTRAINED IN MY BUMPING UP OVER TEMPS
MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN
MORE MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY. CERTAINLY
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED MULTIPLE EVENT TO
DEVELOP...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT
LOCALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF STORMS ARRIVING AFTER DARK
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WITH OTHER GUIDANCE LESS GUNG-HO. OPTED TO
HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOD TO THE GFS BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MOST AREAS END UP DRY ALTOGETHER TUESDAY.
PRETTY BIG UNCERTAINTIES LINGER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE
DETAILS OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF
THE TIME FRAME WILL BE DRY DESPITE THE NEED TO MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE AS GUIDANCE AGREES ON COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE AND WIND SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.
MTF/KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE
BREEZE TO SHIFT THE WINDS EASTERLY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SHORELINE LATER TODAY. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT...REACHING KORD AND KMDW REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR EITHER VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 22 UTC...OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
LARGELY SCALE WIND PATTERN BEGINS TO FAVOR AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT. WIND SPEEDS WITH THE WIND SHIFT LOOK TO REMAIN AT
OR UNDER 10 KT.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENTER THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE IN STORE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS THREAT IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 30 HOUR KORD
TAF.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE TAFS WAS TO ADD
A PROB 30 GROUP FOR -SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY TO COVER
THE LOW THREAT FOR SOME ACTIVITY IMPACTING NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW-MEDIUM IN SPEEDS BEING 8 KT OR LESS
BEHIND WIND SHIFT.
* LOW ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
MTF/KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
201 AM CDT
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER TODAY...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN
BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD UP
THE LAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20-25 KT
WILL LIKELY ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
945 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 945 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
14z/9am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary draped
across the far SE KILX CWA, generally south of a Robinson to Flora
line. Warm/moist airmass is still in place near and south of the
boundary where dewpoints are hovering in the middle 60s. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing south of the front near the
I-64 corridor: however, with a weak upper-level impulse currently
tracking out of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley, would not be
surprised to see a couple of cells develop further north near the
front. Latest RAP model hints at this through early afternoon
before upper wave exits into Indiana. As such, have decided to
include isolated thunder south of I-70. Further north, mostly
sunny and drier conditions are noted, with dewpoints only in the
40s. Another upper wave is evident on water vapor imagery over
Nebraska: however, this feature will lift northeastward and not
impact the weather across central Illinois today. End result will
be a warm/dry day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. As
upper low over Washington/Oregon digs southward west of the
Rockies, downstream ridging will allow frontal boundary to lift
back northward tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the boundary, but precip will hold off until evening. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
The stationary front across southeast IL will linger in place south
of the terminal sites today, with BKN high clouds north of the
front in central Illinois through the day. Winds will generally
be less than 10 kt from the east-southeast until afternoon, when
wind speeds increase between 10-14kt for the western terminals.
Storm chances will be tied to the northward advance of the
front as a warm front tonight. Storms are forecast to develop
across Missouri this evening and advance from west to east across
the area tonight. It appears that storms could reach as far east as
PIA to SPI by 02z. The NCEP 4km WRF output has the initial wave of
storms in a 4 hour window, so tempo`s for MVFR vis in TSRA were
included at all TAF sites for late evening to just after midnight.
Storm chances could linger through morning under VCTS conditions,
but SPI and PIA could see a break develop by 10z.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
A nice day in store for central IL today as skies become partly to
mostly sunny and highs in the upper 70s to around 80F. A frontal
boundary lingers in far southeast CWA early this morning and have
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near Lawrenceville
until mid morning until front pushes slowly se of there. More
active weather pattern takes shape from tonight through the middle
of next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. SPC
has areas sw of Canton to Lincoln to Effingham in a slight risk of
severe storms tonight as warm front lift north with increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from west to east during the
night. Areas from I-72 north are in a slight risk of severe on
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. And areas from I-55 west are
in a slight risk of severe storms again later Monday afternoon and
Monday night as a cold front moves east across IL Monday night.
Have lowered chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and
Monday morning especially southern counties as best convection
chances shift north with warm front. Warm weather in store through
Monday with highs Sunday/Monday in the low to mid 80s. Monday has
potential to be the warmest day with 850 mb temps elevating to
near 20C and this depends on how much sunshine we see. Will have
breezy south southwest winds Monday and increase wind speeds then.
On Tue kept likely chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
over eastern IL closer to departing cold front while chance of
showers west of I-57 Tue. Highs Tue range from mid 60s over IL
river valley to mid 70s near the Wabash River.
LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday
Unsettled weather pattern looks to continue at least Tue night and
Wed as strong upper level trof shifts east into IL and ECMWF model
even shows surface low pressure lifting ne and passing se of
central IL Wed and bringing widespread showers to the area. If
this pans out may need to increase pops further on Wed and have
cooler temps. Large upper level trof over the Midwest and Great
Lakes region continues for 2nd half of next week keeping temps
below normal along with lingering chances of light rain showers.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS.
STRONG 130 KT JET ALSO ANALYZED COMING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL OTHER WEAKER WAVES MOVING IN THE
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THESE WAVES WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM FREEPORT ILLINOIS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2AM WERE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
THE LOWEST READINGS SEEN IN THE WAPSI RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
RESULTING IN A S-SE RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY THAN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DEEP MIXING...DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...AND AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH MAY EVEN APPROACH 80 DEGREES. SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND RAP TRENDS SHOW
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AROUND 21Z ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT TODAY AND PROPAGATE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALES
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHEN STORMS INITIATE. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALTHOUGH MARGINAL MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS APPEARS
AT THIS TIME A BETTER POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...FORCING PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE BEST
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 00Z SUN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THOSE THAT RECEIVE A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO LAG THE GFS/NAM TIMING. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
AND A WARM FRONT NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH EAST MONDAY AND EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INFLUX OF THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SUPPLY OF UNSTABLE AIR TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT SOME
OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADIC THREAT
WILL BE THE GREATEST NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OR
SOUTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PW/S EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHILE THE AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SO KEPT THE FORECAST QPF LOWER
THAN WPC.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
OR MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWFA IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SLOWER ECM PROGS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING MOST DAYS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER THE COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SURFACE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING RESULTING IN S-SE WINDS
DEVELOPING. HIGH BASED STORMS TO FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND PUSH EAST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS MAINLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GREATEST IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP
AT THE BRL TERMINAL. ELEVATED STORMS WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...GROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
803 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WILL ONLY MAKE LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. WHAT HAS BEEN A
STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL KY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF FINALLY BEING KICKED EASTWARD BY APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY.
A COUPLE OF THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY 15Z...MISSING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
PROCESS. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY THE HRRR THEN REDEVELOPS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A SECOND WAVE WHICH ENTERS INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST BY 17-18Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS WELL WHEN COMPARED TO LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
CURRENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD...WELL BACK
TOWARDS TEXARKANA. NOT SURE WHAT THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON BUT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL NOT LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PER THE HRRR. SEEMS MORE LIKELY THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE ORIGINAL BAND AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT JUST
ABOUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY...AND HEAR A FEW CLAPS
OF THUNDER FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL.
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF LINE EASTWARD ONLY OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL...AND MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS. BASED ON KY MESONET RAINFALL
IN GENERAL HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. BUT A COUPLE OF THE UPSTREAM
GAGES ARE REPORTING TOTALS OVER AN INCH NOW...ONE IS REPORTING AN INCH
AND A HALF. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE EVEN HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS SUCH
AS BUTLER COUNTY WITH ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL SO FAR. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO GROUND TRUTH THERE BUT LMK
HAS CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL BASED ON INCOMING COOP REPORTS. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO FOLLOWING SHIFT. THANKS TO LMK FOR CHAT...
COLLABORATION ON CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...
TODAY. SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST HAS BEEN
CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT SHOULD PICK UP SPEED LATER THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS THIS BAND EASTWARD WHILE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MORE STABLE THAN THE
PREVIOUS 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STRIKES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BAND...AND EVEN A FEW CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES WITH ACTIVITY
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE. WHILE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE
STORM...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES QUICKLY TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY DIES OUT. AM NOT
REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING HELPS BUILD A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS CAP...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE NAMS TENDENCY TO OVERDO SFC MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY
INSTABILITY. BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR GOOD
MEASURE AS THE TRUTH WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...AND
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.
OTHERWISE...NUDGED TEMPS TOWARDS LATEST BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEARED IN GREAT SHAPE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
OVERALL...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES...THE TREND
IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECWMF WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN...SO CLEARLY...THE
SLOWER TREND NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WITH HIGHER POPS INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS IT STANDS NOW...STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S WITH A
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY GOING SOUTHWEST...WE MAY KEEP
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND...WHICH MAY LIMIT ANY SHOWER OR
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY...A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER...WE WILL TURN MUCH COOLER AND
UNSETTLED BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S OR 60S...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND EXACT PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR NOW...WILL TRAIL
OFF POPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BECOMES MORE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON
OUT THESE DETAILS. ITS SEEMS THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE HOLDING OFF ON THE BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AND MID DAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TRIED TO
TIME ONSET OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BASED ON MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT BAND INTO THE AREA.
FEEL THERE WILL BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT EACH TERMINAL CENTERED SOMEWHERE AROUND 17-20Z. IN
GENERAL CIGS HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO ABOUT 3K FT AND VSBYS TO AROUND
1-2SM WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORM CELLS. CONDITIONS WOULD BE ONLY
TEMPORARY WITH PASSING STORMS. WILL AMEND TAFS FOR TEMPO GROUPS ONCE
WE ARE ABLE TO GET BETTER TIMING OF ANY STORMS ON STATION.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY AND NO CLEAR PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
HELD ONTO SOME LIGHT MVFR MIST/FOG IN THE FORECAST AFTER 0Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS AND BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM 2.17" AT 00Z(1900CST YESTERDAY) TO
1.68" AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM THE DRY LAYER THAT
HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE SFC UP TO 850MB. YESTERDAYS SOUNDING
SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW COOL POOL THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GIVING
THE MUCH NEEDED INITIAL LIFT TO THE SFC PARCELS. ONCE PARCELS
REACHED ~975MB OR ~1100 FEET...THE PARCEL BECAME MOIST ADIABATIC
ALL THE WAY UP TO 300MB AND AT 14.5 G/KG MIXING RATIO(YES 14.5)...THESE
VARIABLES POINT TO A VERY TROPICAL AIR MASS WHICH MAY HAVE CAME
FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE LOADING FROM THE OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW
THAT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ANY LONGER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
UPDATE...
SENDING UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE HEADLINES AT TOP OF THE HOUR. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPRIRE AT 9 AM AS SCHEDULED. 24/RR
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE IT HAS BECOME STATIONARY. LARGE
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION IS GRADUALLY ERODING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELPS CUT OFF MOISTURE SOURCE. TEMPS SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DISCUSSION...
HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE JUST IN CASE
OF ANY UNEXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER STORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON
WITH THIS AIR MASS. ANY HEAVIER STORMS THAT REDEVELOP WILL EASILY
PRODUCE SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES AND OVERWHELM NATURAL DRAINAGE.
ASSUMING MOTHER NATURE COOPERATES...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AN EXTENSION TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONCERNING RAINFALL. EURO IS
GENERALLY THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE DRIEST
AND THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH EVEN GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERALLY INDICATE A 30 PERCENT SPREAD IN POP FORECASTS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR TODAY. GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM
LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER POP SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY ACCURATE
AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 8 RUNS. AM NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING THE AREA OUT AS THE HRRR WHICH CUTS OFF NEARLY ALL
RAINFALL BY 15Z WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING...BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SIMPLY DUE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND A LACK OF
ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM...WILL BE RELYING ON DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR CONVECTION. WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...THAT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 12
TO 18 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOCAL FROPA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND...
WHICH RESULTS IN A FROPA EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EURO BOTH AGREE
THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ALSO DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE AFTERNOONS DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT LATE
IN THE WEEK IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT.
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FALL ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM MID MORNING ON AS
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHES.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 85 70 / 20 10 30 10
BTR 85 70 87 72 / 20 10 30 10
ASD 82 69 83 71 / 40 20 40 10
MSY 83 70 84 72 / 40 20 30 10
GPT 80 72 83 71 / 50 20 30 10
PQL 80 69 84 71 / 50 30 40 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
856 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
SENDING UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE HEADLINES AT TOP OF THE HOUR. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPRIRE AT 9 AM AS SCHEDULED. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE IT HAS BECOME STATIONARY. LARGE
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION IS GRADUALLY ERODING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELPS CUT OFF MOISTURE SOURCE. TEMPS SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DISCUSSION...
HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE JUST IN CASE
OF ANY UNEXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER STORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON
WITH THIS AIR MASS. ANY HEAVIER STORMS THAT REDEVELOP WILL EASILY
PRODUCE SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES AND OVERWHELM NATURAL DRAINAGE.
ASSUMING MOTHER NATURE COOPERATES...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AN EXTENSION TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONCERNING RAINFALL. EURO IS
GENERALLY THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE DRIEST
AND THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH EVEN GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERALLY INDICATE A 30 PERCENT SPREAD IN POP FORECASTS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR TODAY. GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM
LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER POP SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY ACCURATE
AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 8 RUNS. AM NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING THE AREA OUT AS THE HRRR WHICH CUTS OFF NEARLY ALL
RAINFALL BY 15Z WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING...BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SIMPLY DUE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND A LACK OF
ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM...WILL BE RELYING ON DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR CONVECTION. WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...THAT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 12
TO 18 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOCAL FROPA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND...
WHICH RESULTS IN A FROPA EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EURO BOTH AGREE
THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ALSO DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE AFTERNOONS DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT LATE
IN THE WEEK IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT.
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FALL ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM MID MORNING ON AS
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHES.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 85 70 / 20 10 30 10
BTR 85 70 87 72 / 20 10 30 10
ASD 82 69 83 71 / 40 20 40 10
MSY 83 70 84 72 / 40 20 30 10
GPT 80 72 83 71 / 50 20 30 10
PQL 80 69 84 71 / 50 30 40 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
952 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL STALL
BRIEFLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1347Z UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES ALONG THE COAST AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 18Z. CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PRECISE TIME OF
THIS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CHALLENGING. LATEST STLT
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARP CLEARING LINE OVER VERMONT AND
EASTERNMOST NYS. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON TOUGH THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS
PENOBSCOT BAY.
PREV DISC...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY VISIBLE ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY IN NEW YORK STATE...
WITH A TRACK SET TO ARRIVE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AT ABOUT 10AM. HAVE
ADJUSTED POP FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CERTAINTY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND
DEPARTURE OF THE AREA OF RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING... IT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TROUGH IS ALREADY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHIFT TO THE WEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S... THOUGH NEAR THE COAST FROM PORTLAND
EASTWARD MAY STAY IN THE 60S. PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE COULD GET CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES.
IF PORTLAND REACHES 70 DEGREES IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR. THAT IS ABOUT 3 WEEKS LATER THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST 70
DEGREE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE MAY BE BRUSHED
BY A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM THIS FEATURE BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. WARM/DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
25 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM
REACHING THE COAST... AND THUS EVEN COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE 70+
DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY
FAIR DAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASED CLOUDS OR
SHOWERS IN NE ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK WAVE AT 500 MB...AND
BACK DOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. IN AND OF ITSELF THIS BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS WANT TO BRING
A REMNANT MCS-LIKE SYSTEM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS COMBINATION INCREASES THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEMS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD...AND WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH HIGHS
THE 60S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 500MB PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
AMPLIFIED BY WEDNESDAY...AS 500MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST...AND RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROLONG THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE
LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST
SHOT FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST BEHIND A FRONT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. VFR CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. SOME POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PENOBSCOT BAY WAS DROPPED AS WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 5 FEET INSIDE THE ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW TODAY WILL PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH TO PRODUCE WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS TODAY WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND FIRE CONCERNS
LOW. HOWEVER... DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY. WITH DEEP
MIXING THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON THE
COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. THIS COULD WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING DEPENDING ON FUEL CONDITIONS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NH. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE INTERIOR
HIGH LANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EARLY IN
THE EVENING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOADED HRRR FOR SKY/POP GRIDS THROUGH 12Z USED A BLEND OF
NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR BALANCE OF PERIOD. LOADED NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF
FOR HRLY TEMP/DP/WNDS. HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...20 PERCENT OVER WATER. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN MONDAY WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE.
A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SLATED TO BE ACROSS THE FAR N AND W.
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE DAYCREW`S SETUP AND CONTINUE W/A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS(30-40%) INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AXIS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
DOES SHIFT TO THE N AND E AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS
AND SREF. FURTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE
DOWNEAST, PRETTY MUCH RAIN-FREE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWENAST AREAS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.
THE BIGGER CHALLENGE WILL BE MONDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING DISCONTINUITY W/THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS COURSE OF BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE GFS WANT TO DRY IT OUT W/HIGH PRES
NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SECTIONS. STAYED CLOSER TO AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH BLENDING IN THE ECMWF AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. QPF FOR
THIS TERM IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.15".
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TERM.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. COOLER FOR TUESDAY W/AOB NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF THE E BY THURSDAY W/A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE DAYCREW`S TREND AND CARRY THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE UPSIDE TO THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SKYCON WILL BREAK LATE MORNING BECMG
MVFR INTO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL RETURN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MAINLY N OF KHUL. MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY ALL THE WAY TO
KHUL AND VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. MVFR CIGS COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR
KBGR AND KBHB MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A ENE FLOW SETS UP.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. WINDS 10-15 KTS
W/GUST TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY DROPPING OFF TO 10 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS
W/GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
DOWN FROM CANADA AND THE FLOW BECOME ENE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-4 FT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...AS THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS MOVE A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALONG WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE IS AN INCREASE IN MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE
GFS FORECASTING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT 300MB JETLET AND
A 55KT 500MB JETLET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO
INCREASES SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND JETLETS...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z.
AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DECREASES SOME.
MOS GUIDANCE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...IN
GENERAL AROUND 60F...WHILE BOTH THE HRRR AND PARTICULARLY THE RAP
MARKEDLY DIMINISH SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATTER
WELL INTO THE 40S OR BELOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...THE GFS DOES
SHOW A LARGE DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH
THAT THERE IS AN 850MB THETA-E MINIMUM BISECTING CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 00Z. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 850MB AND
500MB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS ONLY FORECASTS SUCH LAPSE RATES
TO ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE SATURDAY WHILE THE NAM IS NOTICEABLY MORE
UNSTABLE. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE REGIME OF BETTER 850MB
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
ABOUT THE TIME OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND JETLET APPROACH...WITH
LESSER CHANCES PARTICULARLY FROM U.S. 1 AND EAST. THIS FORECAST WILL
GRADUATE POPS SIMILARLY...HIGH CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1.
IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...850MB WINDS DO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40KT...AND IF THE LOW-LEVELS DO MIX
MORE THAN EXPECTED...THEN AN ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE OR SEVERE GUST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST ECHOES. ON SATURDAY...EVEN MODEST SHOWERS
WERE APPARENTLY RESULTING IN SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. IN THE HWO
WILL LIKELY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM WITH A WIND
GUST TO 50 MPH AS THE BEST TEMPERATURE RISE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIE FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS LESS.
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIMINISH LATE...AND WILL HOLD ONTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL LATE
AT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TODAY...LOWER 80S FAR NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 80S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 30 MPH
DESPITE THE CLOUDS TOWARD THE TRIAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID 60S TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA...BUT THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS APPEAR CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...MID-LEVEL FEATURES CURRENTLY SEEM TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. IF A SHOWER DOES
OCCUR...CURRENTLY IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVERALL ARE ONLY NEAR AN INCH TOWARD THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...STILL LESS THAN
VALUES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: RIDGING ALOFT AND A BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARM MOIST RETURN
FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK SHEAR OVER THE AREA...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE LOW
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...AS THE GFS (FASTER) AND ECMWF
(SLOWER) CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN TIMING BY APPROX 24 HOURS OR SO...
BOTH HAVING SLOWED DOWN SOME OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS BEING THURSDAY
AFT/EVE. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST ALONG THE FRONT...
AND WITH THE BETTER FORCING DURING THIS TIME...MAY MAKE MENTION OF
SOME POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE HWO. WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES IN
HOPES OF NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND HOPEFULLY
INCREASING CONFIDENCE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH THEY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND THUS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY...
DECREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE 12Z VALID TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AND A FEW AREAS OF
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AS NOTED BY THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AROUND 11Z. OUTSIDE OF A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE BETTER CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND WEST
OF U.S. 1...OR AT THE KRDU AND PARTICULARLY THE TRIAD TAF SITES. THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES SUCH THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE A GUSTY WIND...AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY...
FOR NOW TO 35KT...AT THE KINT AND KGSO TAF SITES. ANY SHOWERS THIS
EVENING SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THR PROBABILITY OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASES...CURRENTLY FIRST TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1004 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHILE BROADER RAIN COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF BISMARCK ARE
FAVORED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT.
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES STILL SHOW PRECIPITATION JUST ACROSS THE
BORDER IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. NEARLY ALL
MODELS BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN TO EARLY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE
CONTINUOUSLY BACKED OFF POPS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THAT SAID SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST IS GOOD IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
IN BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET. BEYOND 00 UTC
SUNDAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY PROGRESS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS REGARDING THE FORECAST
DURING THE WORK WEEK.
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER WILL BE THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
PROG THE LOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY. THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DRY SLOTTED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED.
BY MONDAY...THE 00Z GFS PROGS THE LOW TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF PROG THE LOW TO BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
00Z GFS DRY SLOTS NORTH DAKOTA WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM PAINT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE SAKE OF
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND INDICATE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
BY TUESDAY...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF PROG THE LOW/OPEN WAVE TO SHIFT EAST
INTO MINNESOTA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
STATE. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 60S AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
EXPECTING MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KJMS...AND LATER TONIGHT
AT KMOT. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AT KJMS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT.
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES STILL SHOW PRECIPITATION JUST ACROSS THE
BORDER IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. NEARLY ALL
MODELS BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN TO EARLY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE
CONTINUOUSLY BACKED OFF POPS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THAT SAID SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST IS GOOD IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
IN BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET. BEYOND 00 UTC
SUNDAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY PROGRESS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS REGARDING THE FORECAST
DURING THE WORK WEEK.
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER WILL BE THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
PROG THE LOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY. THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DRY SLOTTED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED.
BY MONDAY...THE 00Z GFS PROGS THE LOW TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF PROG THE LOW TO BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
00Z GFS DRY SLOTS NORTH DAKOTA WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM PAINT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE SAKE OF
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND INDICATE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
BY TUESDAY...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF PROG THE LOW/OPEN WAVE TO SHIFT EAST
INTO MINNESOTA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
STATE. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 60S AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL
IN EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOR
KDIK...KISN...KJMS...AND KBIS AT THE TIME RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
AT THIS TIME NOTHING LESS THAN MVFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR CATEGORY IN MORE MODERATE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT SITES KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
416 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER. THE MOISTURE AND HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
COVERAGE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT...A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH...PLUS
HEATING WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED JUST SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. OUR
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS APPEARS ON TRACK.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS WEAK...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -5. THE KCAE 88D SHOWED UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET.
THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PLUS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE MID-
LEVELS POTENTIALLY AIDING DOWNDRAFTS COULD POSSIBLY HELP SUPPORT
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 10000 FEET ALSO SUPPORT HAIL.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND BAND OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE HRRR INDICATED SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE EVENING...
WITH SOME CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTH PART. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS
AND NAM MOS SUPPORTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW MORE MOISTURE LINGERING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ALOFT...THE MODELS
SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHT. WE USED THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS. BELIEVE
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY TIED TO
HEATING. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN
RECENT VERIFICATION...UPPER RIDGING...AND THE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. USED THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
FOR THE SE US AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SLOWED IN LATEST
MODEL RUNS. WHILE THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO MID
WEEK...INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES WEDNESDAY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA
AND MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
AND ATTM EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...HIGHS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FONT COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH HAS
HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE.
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WIND...SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP CAUSE FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE MVFR OR IFR FOG WITH THE GREATER
RESTRICTIONS AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. HEATING
AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY FOG BY 14Z.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER. THE MOISTURE AND HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
COVERAGE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT...A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH...PLUS
HEATING WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED JUST SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. OUR
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS APPEARS ON TRACK.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS WEAK...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -5. THE KCAE 88D SHOWED UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET.
THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PLUS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE MID-
LEVELS POTENTIALLY AIDING DOWNDRAFTS COULD POSSIBLY HELP SUPPORT
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 10000 FEET ALSO SUPPORT HAIL.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND BAND OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE HRRR INDICATED SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE EVENING...
WITH SOME CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTH PART. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS
AND NAM MOS SUPPORTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW MORE MOISTURE LINGERING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ALOFT...THE MODELS
SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHT. WE USED THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS. BELIEVE
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY TIED TO
HEATING. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN
RECENT VERIFICATION...UPPER RIDGING...AND THE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. USED THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
FOR THE SE US AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SLOWED IN LATEST
MODEL RUNS. WHILE THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO MID
WEEK...INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES WEDNESDAY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA
AND MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
AND ATTM EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...HIGHS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND THE FORCING WILL BE WEAK. EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WIND...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP CAUSE FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE MVFR OR IFR FOG WITH THE
GREATER RESTRICTIONS AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER. THE MOISTURE AND HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
COVERAGE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT...A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH...PLUS
HEATING WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED JUST SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. OUR
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS APPEARS ON TRACK.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS WEAK...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -5. THE KCAE 88D SHOWED UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET.
THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PLUS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE MID-
LEVELS POTENTIALLY AIDING DOWNDRAFTS COULD POSSIBLY HELP SUPPORT
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 10000 FEET ALSO SUPPORT HAIL.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND BAND OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE HRRR INDICATED SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE EVENING...
WITH SOME CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTH PART. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS
AND NAM MOS SUPPORTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW MORE MOISTURE LINGERING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ALOFT...THE MODELS
SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHT. WE USED THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS. BELIEVE
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY TIED TO
HEATING. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN
RECENT VERIFICATION...UPPER RIDGING...AND THE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. USED THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
FOR THE SE US AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SLOWED IN LATEST
MODEL RUNS. WHILE THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO MID
WEEK...INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES WEDNESDAY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA
AND MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
AND ATTM EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TIMING AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...HIGHS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND THE FORCING WILL BE WEAK. EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WIND...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP CAUSE FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE MVFR OR IFR FOG WITH THE
GREATER RESTRICTIONS AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
252 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING REMAINS THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY NICE
DAY OVERALL. SLUG OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER MISSOURI IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...MUCH MORE DEFINED AT 250MB THAN AT 500MB
WITH VERY LITTLE REFLECTION AT 700MB. DRY LOW LEVELS AND ABSENCE OF
FORCING SHOULD KEEP THIS ONLY A HIGH CLOUD PRODUCER AND MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO FORM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIKELY THE DEVELOPING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST INTO ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS
INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH FAR LESSER SUPPORT
FROM PRECIP FARTHER NORTH. HAVE DECREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
NORTHERN 2/3RD OF CWA...MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS MOSTLY FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE AS IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT IT COULD STAY
DRY ALTOGETHER NORTH OF I-80. FAR SOUTHERN CWA STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER
POPS THERE.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH A SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY BUT
OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING LOOKS SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT IN STRONG HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM
OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT
REMNANT MCV FROM TODAY`S CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS OR FORCING
ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD ARGUE FOR
LARGELY A RAIN-FREE DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SCALE
BACK POPS SOME. WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND WITH
STILL RESPECTABLE VALUES OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE SEVERE. NOT
TO MENTION THAT ILLINOIS WARM FRONTS SEEM TO LIKE TO PRODUCE
"SURPRISES" THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST AN ILLINOIS
SHORE LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IF WARM
FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS MORE BACKED AHEAD OF IT.
ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT DID KEEP LAKE COOLING IN THE GRIDS
SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN WITH FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH
OUR CWA JUST UNSEASONABLY WARM AND STEAMY WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO
DIP BELOW 70 DEGREES AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS IS THE ODD MAN OUT
KEEPING WARM FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
CWA. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT RELUCTANT TO GO TOO LOW GIVEN GFS SOLUTION AND POSSIBILITY
THAT EVEN IF OTHER MODELS VERIFY OUTFLOW COULD PUSH SOUTH AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. UNUSUALLY HIGH
PWATS AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF WARM FRONT RAISE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...THOUGH THANKFULLY THAT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A THREAT NORTH OF THE STATE LINE IN WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S LIKELY SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL PROBABLY SPILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...BUT AS THIS CONVECTION
MOVES AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND INTO MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WOULD EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO GET ABOVE 20C MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXTENT OF
DEBRIS FROM SUNDAY`S PLAINS CONVECTION AND LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES
HAVE PROMPTED ME TO BE MORE RESTRAINED IN MY BUMPING UP OVER TEMPS
MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN
MORE MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY. CERTAINLY
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED MULTIPLE EVENT TO
DEVELOP...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT
LOCALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF STORMS ARRIVING AFTER DARK
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WITH OTHER GUIDANCE LESS GUNG-HO. OPTED TO
HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOD TO THE GFS BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MOST AREAS END UP DRY ALTOGETHER TUESDAY.
PRETTY BIG UNCERTAINTIES LINGER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE
DETAILS OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF
THE TIME FRAME WILL BE DRY DESPITE THE NEED TO MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE AS GUIDANCE AGREES ON COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE AREA.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* WINDS AROUND DUE SOUTH AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
A BETTER CHANCE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL DEPART TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
FROM THE HIGH ALLOWED FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. THIS LAKE
BREEZE HOWEVER HAS HAD DIFFICULTY ADVANCING INLAND AS MIXING AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING ORD AND MDW. THE EFFECTS OF THESE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN ON THE ORD TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR...WITH THE LAKE BREEZE HAVING BECOME STATIONARY...EVEN
RETREATING SLIGHTLY. WITH LOSS OF MIXING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD PROPAGATE INLAND SOME
MORE. IN ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEAST DURING
THE EARLY TO MID EVE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED.
THE OUTER EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA ARE FAVORED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FORCING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ARRIVE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DEEPER AND STRONGER.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW IN WIND SHIFT TIMING TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND MEDIUM THAT
SPEEDS WILL BE 8 KT OR LESS AFTER SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST.
* MEDIUM IN WINDS ON SUNDAY.
* LOW IN ANY STORMS VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MEDIUM IN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
MTF/KJB
&&
.MARINE...
201 AM CDT
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER TODAY...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN
BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD UP
THE LAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20-25 KT
WILL LIKELY ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT LIKELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1232 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 945 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
14z/9am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary draped
across the far SE KILX CWA, generally south of a Robinson to Flora
line. Warm/moist airmass is still in place near and south of the
boundary where dewpoints are hovering in the middle 60s. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing south of the front near the
I-64 corridor: however, with a weak upper-level impulse currently
tracking out of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley, would not be
surprised to see a couple of cells develop further north near the
front. Latest RAP model hints at this through early afternoon
before upper wave exits into Indiana. As such, have decided to
include isolated thunder south of I-70. Further north, mostly
sunny and drier conditions are noted, with dewpoints only in the
40s. Another upper wave is evident on water vapor imagery over
Nebraska: however, this feature will lift northeastward and not
impact the weather across central Illinois today. End result will
be a warm/dry day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. As
upper low over Washington/Oregon digs southward west of the
Rockies, downstream ridging will allow frontal boundary to lift
back northward tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the boundary, but precip will hold off until evening. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1232 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014
Dry/stable airmass will remain in place across central Illinois
this afternoon, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds.
As a warm frontal boundary begins to lift back northward tonight,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and track through
the area. Timing of convection remains in question, as stable
surface-based layer will slow eastward progression of any storms
that develop west of the Mississippi River this afternoon. Most
high-res model guidance suggests convective development
along/north of the warm front across western Missouri over the
next couple of hours, with storms tracking E/SE along the
boundary into south-central Illinois by evening. Trajectory of
storms may keep them south of the central Illinois terminals until
later in the evening when front lifts further northward and
low-level jet strengthens across the area. Due to low confidence
concerning timing and areal coverage, have opted to only go with
VCTS in the TAFs at this time. Will introduce VCTS at KSPI
earliest by 03z, then further northeast at KCMI by 07z. Front will
lift north of the area by Sunday morning, taking best focus for
additional convection into northern Illinois. Light SE winds this
afternoon will become southerly and will increase into the 10 to
15kt range behind the warm front on Sunday.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
A nice day in store for central IL today as skies become partly to
mostly sunny and highs in the upper 70s to around 80F. A frontal
boundary lingers in far southeast CWA early this morning and have
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near Lawrenceville
until mid morning until front pushes slowly se of there. More
active weather pattern takes shape from tonight through the middle
of next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. SPC
has areas sw of Canton to Lincoln to Effingham in a slight risk of
severe storms tonight as warm front lift north with increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from west to east during the
night. Areas from I-72 north are in a slight risk of severe on
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. And areas from I-55 west are
in a slight risk of severe storms again later Monday afternoon and
Monday night as a cold front moves east across IL Monday night.
Have lowered chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and
Monday morning especially southern counties as best convection
chances shift north with warm front. Warm weather in store through
Monday with highs Sunday/Monday in the low to mid 80s. Monday has
potential to be the warmest day with 850 mb temps elevating to
near 20C and this depends on how much sunshine we see. Will have
breezy south southwest winds Monday and increase wind speeds then.
On Tue kept likely chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
over eastern IL closer to departing cold front while chance of
showers west of I-57 Tue. Highs Tue range from mid 60s over IL
river valley to mid 70s near the Wabash River.
LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday
Unsettled weather pattern looks to continue at least Tue night and
Wed as strong upper level trof shifts east into IL and ECMWF model
even shows surface low pressure lifting ne and passing se of
central IL Wed and bringing widespread showers to the area. If
this pans out may need to increase pops further on Wed and have
cooler temps. Large upper level trof over the Midwest and Great
Lakes region continues for 2nd half of next week keeping temps
below normal along with lingering chances of light rain showers.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
103 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS.
STRONG 130 KT JET ALSO ANALYZED COMING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL OTHER WEAKER WAVES MOVING IN THE
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THESE WAVES WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM FREEPORT ILLINOIS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2AM WERE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
THE LOWEST READINGS SEEN IN THE WAPSI RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
RESULTING IN A S-SE RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY THAN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DEEP MIXING...DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...AND AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH MAY EVEN APPROACH 80 DEGREES. SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND RAP TRENDS SHOW
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AROUND 21Z ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT TODAY AND PROPAGATE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALES
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHEN STORMS INITIATE. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALTHOUGH MARGINAL MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS APPEARS
AT THIS TIME A BETTER POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...FORCING PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE BEST
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 00Z SUN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THOSE THAT RECEIVE A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO LAG THE GFS/NAM TIMING. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
AND A WARM FRONT NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH EAST MONDAY AND EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INFLUX OF THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SUPPLY OF UNSTABLE AIR TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT SOME
OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADIC THREAT
WILL BE THE GREATEST NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OR
SOUTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PW/S EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHILE THE AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SO KEPT THE FORECAST QPF LOWER
THAN WPC.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
OR MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWFA IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SLOWER ECM PROGS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING MOST DAYS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER THE COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AM. FEW HIGH BASED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TO W/SW OF CWA... AND
ANTICIPATE BULK OF STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO SLIDE E/SE SOUTH OF TERMINALS NORTH OF WARM FRONT ALONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING EXITING
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THEN... WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT FAR SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND/OR LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA SUNDAY AM. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
OCCASIONALLY GUST AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MID TO
LATE SUNDAY AM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR TODAY. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA HAS BEEN ABOUT AN HOUR OR SLOW WITH ITS TIMING OF A LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE
MODELS IN THAT REGARD SO FAR...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND TODAYS MAX TEMPS BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN
OBSERVED DATA AND THE INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION AT SEVERAL OBSERVING
STATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE. ALSO REMOVED ANY OUTDATED
MORNING OR AFTERNOON WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. THE
UPDATED ZONE FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WILL ONLY MAKE LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. WHAT HAS BEEN A
STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL KY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF FINALLY BEING KICKED EASTWARD BY APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY.
A COUPLE OF THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY 15Z...MISSING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
PROCESS. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY THE HRRR THEN REDEVELOPS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A SECOND WAVE WHICH ENTERS INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST BY 17-18Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS WELL WHEN COMPARED TO LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
CURRENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD...WELL BACK
TOWARDS TEXARKANA. NOT SURE WHAT THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON BUT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL NOT LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PER THE HRRR. SEEMS MORE LIKELY THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE ORIGINAL BAND AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT JUST
ABOUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY...AND HEAR A FEW CLAPS
OF THUNDER FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL.
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF LINE EASTWARD ONLY OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL...AND MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS. BASED ON KY MESONET RAINFALL
IN GENERAL HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. BUT A COUPLE OF THE UPSTREAM
GAGES ARE REPORTING TOTALS OVER AN INCH NOW...ONE IS REPORTING AN INCH
AND A HALF. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE EVEN HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS SUCH
AS BUTLER COUNTY WITH ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL SO FAR. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO GROUND TRUTH THERE BUT LMK
HAS CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL BASED ON INCOMING COOP REPORTS. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO FOLLOWING SHIFT. THANKS TO LMK FOR CHAT...
COLLABORATION ON CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...
TODAY. SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST HAS BEEN
CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT SHOULD PICK UP SPEED LATER THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS THIS BAND EASTWARD WHILE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MORE STABLE THAN THE
PREVIOUS 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STRIKES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BAND...AND EVEN A FEW CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES WITH ACTIVITY
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE. WHILE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE
STORM...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES QUICKLY TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY DIES OUT. AM NOT
REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING HELPS BUILD A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS CAP...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE NAMS TENDENCY TO OVERDO SFC MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY
INSTABILITY. BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR GOOD
MEASURE AS THE TRUTH WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...AND
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.
OTHERWISE...NUDGED TEMPS TOWARDS LATEST BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEARED IN GREAT SHAPE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
OVERALL...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES...THE TREND
IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECWMF WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN...SO CLEARLY...THE
SLOWER TREND NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WITH HIGHER POPS INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS IT STANDS NOW...STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S WITH A
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY GOING SOUTHWEST...WE MAY KEEP
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND...WHICH MAY LIMIT ANY SHOWER OR
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY...A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER...WE WILL TURN MUCH COOLER AND
UNSETTLED BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S OR 60S...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND EXACT PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR NOW...WILL TRAIL
OFF POPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BECOMES MORE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON
OUT THESE DETAILS. ITS SEEMS THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL LINE HAS CLEARED THE
AIRPORTS AT JKL...LOZ...AND SME. SJS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH 19 OR 20Z BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO TAPER. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS IN
THE 20 TO 23Z RANGE. THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEAR
WATCHING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES AND IT
EXACT DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN GENERAL THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ANY EXISTING SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND ANY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1234 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR TODAY. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA HAS BEEN ABOUT AN HOUR OR SLOW WITH ITS TIMING OF A LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE
MODELS IN THAT REGARD SO FAR...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND TODAYS MAX TEMPS BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN
OBSERVED DATA AND THE INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION AT SEVERAL OBSERVING
STATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE. ALSO REMOVED ANY OUTDATED
MORNING OR AFTERNOON WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. THE
UPDATED ZONE FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WILL ONLY MAKE LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. WHAT HAS BEEN A
STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL KY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF FINALLY BEING KICKED EASTWARD BY APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY.
A COUPLE OF THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY 15Z...MISSING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
PROCESS. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY THE HRRR THEN REDEVELOPS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A SECOND WAVE WHICH ENTERS INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST BY 17-18Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS A BIT LONGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS WELL WHEN COMPARED TO LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
CURRENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD...WELL BACK
TOWARDS TEXARKANA. NOT SURE WHAT THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON BUT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL NOT LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PER THE HRRR. SEEMS MORE LIKELY THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE ORIGINAL BAND AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT JUST
ABOUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY...AND HEAR A FEW CLAPS
OF THUNDER FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL.
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF LINE EASTWARD ONLY OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL...AND MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS. BASED ON KY MESONET RAINFALL
IN GENERAL HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. BUT A COUPLE OF THE UPSTREAM
GAGES ARE REPORTING TOTALS OVER AN INCH NOW...ONE IS REPORTING AN INCH
AND A HALF. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE EVEN HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS SUCH
AS BUTLER COUNTY WITH ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL SO FAR. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO GROUND TRUTH THERE BUT LMK
HAS CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL BASED ON INCOMING COOP REPORTS. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO FOLLOWING SHIFT. THANKS TO LMK FOR CHAT...
COLLABORATION ON CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...
TODAY. SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST HAS BEEN
CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT SHOULD PICK UP SPEED LATER THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS THIS BAND EASTWARD WHILE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MORE STABLE THAN THE
PREVIOUS 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STRIKES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BAND...AND EVEN A FEW CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES WITH ACTIVITY
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE. WHILE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE
STORM...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES QUICKLY TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY DIES OUT. AM NOT
REAL IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING HELPS BUILD A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS CAP...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE NAMS TENDENCY TO OVERDO SFC MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY
INSTABILITY. BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR GOOD
MEASURE AS THE TRUTH WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...AND
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.
OTHERWISE...NUDGED TEMPS TOWARDS LATEST BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL TEMPS APPEARED IN GREAT SHAPE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
OVERALL...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES...THE TREND
IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECWMF WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN...SO CLEARLY...THE
SLOWER TREND NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WITH HIGHER POPS INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS IT STANDS NOW...STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S WITH A
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY GOING SOUTHWEST...WE MAY KEEP
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND...WHICH MAY LIMIT ANY SHOWER OR
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY...A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER...WE WILL TURN MUCH COOLER AND
UNSETTLED BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S OR 60S...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND EXACT PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...FOR NOW...WILL TRAIL
OFF POPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BECOMES MORE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON
OUT THESE DETAILS. ITS SEEMS THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE HOLDING OFF ON THE BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AND MID DAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TRIED TO
TIME ONSET OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BASED ON MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT BAND INTO THE AREA.
FEEL THERE WILL BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT EACH TERMINAL CENTERED SOMEWHERE AROUND 17-20Z. IN
GENERAL CIGS HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO ABOUT 3K FT AND VSBYS TO AROUND
1-2SM WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORM CELLS. CONDITIONS WOULD BE ONLY
TEMPORARY WITH PASSING STORMS. WILL AMEND TAFS FOR TEMPO GROUPS ONCE
WE ARE ABLE TO GET BETTER TIMING OF ANY STORMS ON STATION.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY AND NO CLEAR PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
HELD ONTO SOME LIGHT MVFR MIST/FOG IN THE FORECAST AFTER 0Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS AND BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH HIGH BASED
CEILINGS EVENTUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS BASED AROUND 1500 FT THAT MIXES OUT AFTER 14Z. AIR MASS HAS
BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AND CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 30
PERCENT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN ANY TAF LOCATION. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM 2.17" AT 00Z(1900CST YESTERDAY) TO
1.68" AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM THE DRY LAYER THAT
HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE SFC UP TO 850MB. YESTERDAYS SOUNDING
SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW COOL POOL THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GIVING
THE MUCH NEEDED INITIAL LIFT TO THE SFC PARCELS. ONCE PARCELS
REACHED ~975MB OR ~1100 FEET...THE PARCEL BECAME MOIST ADIABATIC
ALL THE WAY UP TO 300MB AND AT 14.5 G/KG MIXING RATIO(YES 14.5)...THESE
VARIABLES POINT TO A VERY TROPICAL AIR MASS WHICH MAY HAVE CAME
FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE LOADING FROM THE OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW
THAT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ANY LONGER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
UPDATE...
SENDING UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE HEADLINES AT TOP OF THE HOUR. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPRIRE AT 9 AM AS SCHEDULED. 24/RR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE IT HAS BECOME STATIONARY. LARGE
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION IS GRADUALLY ERODING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELPS CUT OFF MOISTURE SOURCE. TEMPS SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DISCUSSION...
HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE JUST IN CASE
OF ANY UNEXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER STORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON
WITH THIS AIR MASS. ANY HEAVIER STORMS THAT REDEVELOP WILL EASILY
PRODUCE SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES AND OVERWHELM NATURAL DRAINAGE.
ASSUMING MOTHER NATURE COOPERATES...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AN EXTENSION TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONCERNING RAINFALL. EURO IS
GENERALLY THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE DRIEST
AND THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH EVEN GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERALLY INDICATE A 30 PERCENT SPREAD IN POP FORECASTS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR TODAY. GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AM
LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER POP SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY ACCURATE
AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 8 RUNS. AM NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING THE AREA OUT AS THE HRRR WHICH CUTS OFF NEARLY ALL
RAINFALL BY 15Z WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING...BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SIMPLY DUE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND A LACK OF
ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM...WILL BE RELYING ON DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR CONVECTION. WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...THAT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SO AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 12
TO 18 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOCAL FROPA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND...
WHICH RESULTS IN A FROPA EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EURO BOTH AGREE
THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ALSO DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE AFTERNOONS DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT LATE
IN THE WEEK IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT.
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FALL ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM MID MORNING ON AS
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHES.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 85 70 / 20 10 30 10
BTR 85 70 87 72 / 20 10 30 10
ASD 82 69 83 71 / 20 10 40 10
MSY 83 70 84 72 / 20 10 30 10
GPT 80 72 83 71 / 30 20 30 10
PQL 80 69 84 71 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
650 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
MID TO LATE WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE: NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVING A TUF TIME GETTING ORGANIZED. AN ISOLD SHOWER PAST HR MOVD
THRU PQI AND NOW INTO WRN NB W/ JUST SOME LGT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN
RPTD. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY NW OF THE AREA MAY
BUILD SWWRD AND MOVE ACROSS OUR NRN AREAS LATER THIS EVE. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...
PREV DISC: CLEARING OVER WESTERN MAINE AND THE QUEBEC EASTERN
TOWNSHIPS HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH STRONG WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
SEVERE.
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
FOR SUNDAY, WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, LOOK FOR A PARTLY
CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND WARM DAY DOWNEAST, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
MAINE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OUR FCST
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
FINALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY DRY BUT SEASONALLY COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BY THE WED/TUES TIME
FRAME...MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES IN RESPONSE TO RETURN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL THEN DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH NO LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE OVER THE
CWA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANY REMAINING IFR TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST. GENERALLY VFR LATE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS EITHER LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY OUT
OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF
BANGOR. CLEARING WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
EVENING, WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS (5 FEET)
AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS SWITCH TO OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY, AND
MAY PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SHORT TERM...POSSIBLY REACHING
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/FOISY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/FOISY/RB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRACKS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE HANGING IN TOUGH OVER EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEARING AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NYS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE PER LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN.
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY REACH SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AND HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS REGION FOR
A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR ALL
AREAS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MANY
SECTIONS...THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
INDUCE A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IT WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
BE APPROACHING THE REGION...RETROGRADING INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK ON LONGWAVE
PATTERN. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND IS LIFTING OUT AS WE
BEGIN THE PERIOD ON MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THEN
ARRIVES BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL...EXPECT ONE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY SEVERAL DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE. IN THE DAILIES...WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A FRONT STALLED
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR
NORTH...BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY IS REPLACED BY A COOL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED
TO OUR WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE MARINE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AFTER THAT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY EAST...OTHERWISE
IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
WED - THU...AREAS OF MVFR IN MARINE STRATUS WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE
IN FOG AND DRIZZLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEAS.
LONG TERM...
TUE - THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS TODAY HAVE LEFT HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND FIRE CONCERNS LOW.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY. WITH DEEP MIXING THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT ON THE COASTAL SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 MPH. THIS BORDERLINES BUT DOES NOT EXCEED RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS. SOME WETTING TODAY HAS HELPED FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE COORDINATING WITH MAINE LATER TODAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
234 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAIL AND WIND EXISTS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH NICE SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT IS PROMOTING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE CURRENT
SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG A NW-SE AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS /0.70"-0.90"/ PER
THE 19Z SURFACE RAP ANALYSIS. THE SBCAPE IS WEAK BUT THE APPROACH
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO
7-7.5C/KM IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE UPPER FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND SHEAR TO PROMOTE MULTI-CELL
CONVECTIVE MODE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM 4-7PM WHERE
THE SFC-6KM MAX LAYER THETA-E DIFFERENCE IS BETWEEN -15C AND -20C
IN WESTERN MN. FARTHER EAST IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOWER /ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE A
HEALTHY BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GOOD VERTICAL EXTENT AND IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING/. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF SIMULATIONS
/SPC...HOPWRF...NCEP/ HAVE THE RAIN CLEARING MN BY ABOUT 9PM AND
WESTERN WI BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
STARTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ACTIVE FROM THE GET-
GO...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN MN
AT 00Z MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS /LIKELY SEVERE/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIFTS NORTH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL /1.5
INCHES/...SO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AS LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COULD STILL POTENTIALLY SEE AMOUNTS CURTAILED A BIT DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL THINK 1-2 INCH TOTALS
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN...AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WILL BE ANOTHER WINDOW OF TIME WHEN STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS COULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NAMELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA AND SUPPLIES ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL HAVE LOWERED
NOTABLY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
MODEL TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE 10.12Z ECMWF WERE TO
KEEP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY A BIT MORE
DISJOINTED...HENCE LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN THE MAIN
AREAS OF FORCING. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE A FEW INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SAGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL NEXT WEEK...AS H85
TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH 0 CELSIUS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...WITH THE GROWING SEASON NEARING.
BETTER NEWS /IN THE FORM OF WARMER TEMPERATURES/ IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO HUDSON BAY AND
WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT TO SEE 60S
BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES TODAY ARE DEFINITELY
BETTER AT KAXN/KRWF/KSTC...THAN THE TAF SITES TO THE EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL DOMINATE OUTSIDE MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING.
KMSP...
WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS ADMITTEDLY BETTER TO THE
WEST OF THE AIRPORT. WE STILL EXPECT HEALTHY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST
IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OVER KMSP BETWEEN 5-7 PM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY -SHRA. WINDS SW TO NW 10-15KTS.
MON...MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY -SHRA. WINDS NW 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE. ISO-SCT -SHRA. WINDS W-NW 15-25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
702 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS ON MONDAY...AND THEN A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT BEFORE 10 PM. SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PA. THIS IS MODELED
BY THE HRRR TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 03-07Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOWERING GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME LESS IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE.
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FOR THE NEXT FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BACK IN PA THROUGH CENTRAL
NY...THEY WILL BE ARRIVING INTO A COOLER BUT STILL MOIST AIRMASS
LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LESS
COVERAGE GOING TO MID TO LATE EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND
FORCING JUST REMAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THE JET STREAM ALOFT WILL MOVE NEAR THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD KEEP DIVERGENCE GOING ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR A
HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
ALSO...WITH RATHER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...THINKING
LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
NAM12 AND MET GUIDANCE...HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL PROMOTE
DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW
SUNDAY...EXPECTING A QUICK INCREASE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING
WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S RANGE FOR MOST PLACES. THE JET STREAM ALOFT WILL BE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE RIDGING. HIGHS WERE TAKEN
FROM MAVS AND INCREASED TWO DEGREES. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING SUNDAY
AND THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN OF RECENT NIGHTS WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WERE TAKEN FROM
ECS AND CONVEY A RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS RURAL AND INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES DEPARTS ON MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BEFORE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE...A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND THEN WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THAT BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GOLF OF MAINE.
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THEN THE HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...BUT WILL
EFFECTIVELY BECOME BLOCKED BY THE OFFSHORE HIGH. SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THOSE WILL
TRACK TOWARDS THE REGION...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THEN LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION FOR THAT TIME FRAME. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO SATURDAY AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO THE REGION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 80S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND COOLER NEAR THE COASTS.
TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. BY WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
WITH ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COASTS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPS WILL THEN TOP OFF
AROUND NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES TONIGHT...BRINGING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SW FLOW THIS AFTN/EVENING...GENERALLY 8-13 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL
18-25 KTS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTR 00Z.
VIS MAINLY P6SM...THOUGH ANY PCPN COULD DROP VIS TO 3-5SM FOR A PERIOD.
CIGS MAINLY VFR...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CIGS
COULD DROP TO 1500-2500 FT WITH ANY PCPN. PSBL STRATUS OVER
EASTERN AREAS AS WELL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRST ROUND OF PCPN PSBL AFTR 19Z...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE
21-01Z TIME FRAME. MAINLY SHRA BUT COULD SEE ISO TSTM...LOW
CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE/TIMING AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT INCLUDE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT RIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT...MAINLY SHRA. WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
VIS/CIGS. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND FRONT AFTR 06Z TO WNW FLOW.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR WITH W/NW FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-THURS...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH MOIST
LOW LEVELS. SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN BUT
SYNOPTIC GUSTS WILL BE MARGINAL...NEAR 25 KT BUT FREQUENCY MAY BE
MORE OCCASIONAL WITH THIS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THE INCREASING SW
FETCH WILL HELP BUILD SEAS AS WELL TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES.
JUST EASTERN OCEAN ZONES HAVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WESTERN OCEAN UNTIL MIDNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START THE NEW WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN AS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH OCEAN SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND THREE TENTHS TO A HALF INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM CONVECTION.
ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
MINOR...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GETTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION OF 1/2"
QPF OR MORE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JM/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JM/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
407 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
ADDED THIS UPDATE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHWEST REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...THEN STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR INTO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND WRF...INDICATE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY FAVORS ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT A CHILLY AND RAW DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
AN SEMI-ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE WILL DRY THINGS OUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE EAST ALONG
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SOME LOCATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WED-FRI WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES AND THE UPPER
JET ALOFT CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES COOL (HIGHS 40S/50S AND LOWS 30S) THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDS TO AVIATION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KJMS-
KMOT THROUGH 06Z...AND LOW VFR BECOMING MVFR AFTER 02Z...THEN
LOWERING TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
233 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...THEN STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR INTO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR AND WRF...INDICATE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY FAVORS ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT A CHILLY AND RAW DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
AN SEMI-ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE WILL DRY THINGS OUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE EAST ALONG
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SOME LOCATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WED-FRI WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES AND THE UPPER
JET ALOFT CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES COOL (HIGHS 40S/50S AND LOWS 30S) THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN SHOWERS AND LIGHT FOG. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KISN...THEN KMOT/KJMS LATER TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO N/NW
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
141 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE FOR MORE ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TEMPS WAS LOWERING THE HIGHS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHILE BROADER RAIN COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF BISMARCK ARE
FAVORED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT.
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES STILL SHOW PRECIPITATION JUST ACROSS THE
BORDER IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. NEARLY ALL
MODELS BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN TO EARLY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE
CONTINUOUSLY BACKED OFF POPS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THAT SAID SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS ON SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST IS GOOD IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
IN BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET. BEYOND 00 UTC
SUNDAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY PROGRESS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS REGARDING THE FORECAST
DURING THE WORK WEEK.
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER WILL BE THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
PROG THE LOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY. THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DRY SLOTTED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED.
BY MONDAY...THE 00Z GFS PROGS THE LOW TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF PROG THE LOW TO BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
00Z GFS DRY SLOTS NORTH DAKOTA WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM PAINT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE SAKE OF
CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND INDICATE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
BY TUESDAY...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF PROG THE LOW/OPEN WAVE TO SHIFT EAST
INTO MINNESOTA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
STATE. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 60S AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN SHOWERS AND LIGHT FOG. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KISN...THEN KMOT/KJMS LATER TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO N/NW
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH 15-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS BACKING SOUTH
AROUND SUNSET. SLIM CHANCE THAT A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE TERMINALS SUN MORNING EAST OF A DRYLINE BEFORE GUSTY SW WINDS
RESUME AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL
JET WINDS QUICKLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK. OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS SHOW
40-50KT WINDS WITHIN 1 KFT OF THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING
MAXIMIZED OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THERE WILL THEN LIKELY BE A
SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS LATE MORNING BEFORE STRONG WINDS TAKE OVER IN
THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING IS PROGGED TO BE APPROXIMATELY TO 600MB.
HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND THIS LEVEL ARE NOT THAT NOTABLE. AN INCREASE
IN THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR
TROUTDALE OR. STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WILL BRING THE WINDS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN A MOISTURE SURGE BACK TO THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY TO THE STATE LINE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE
A SHOT AT SOME BRIEF LOW STRATUS ON SUNDAY MORNING COMING UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM...
PRIMARY FOCUS REVOLVED AROUND THE IMPACTS OF A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS LATE
SUNDAY. SHALLOW RICH MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHUNTED EAST WITH ONSET OF MIXING AND FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...WITH A MORE DIFFUSE DRY-LINE EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST BORDER AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. BACKING FLOW
SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD PULL TIGHTENED DRY-LINE WEST TO NEAR THE
CAP-ROCK AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THOUGH STILL DISAGREEMENT OVER
ABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ITSELF. A
SHARP COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE NEEDED TO
ACTIVATE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AS IT NEARS THE DRY-LINE. WE
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS ATTEMPT WITH NET IMPACT TO
RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW MENTION MAINLY EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY WITH
STIFF NORTHERLY BREEZES AS A 1030+ MB SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS EVENTUALLY MAY LEAD TO A RISK FOR
A LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LATEST WRF/NAM THREW A BIT MORE DOUBT INTO THE
EARLY WEEK FORECAST WITH A SHARPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY ALONG
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR. WE HAVE
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ALSO LOWERED
TUESDAY MAXIMUMS A LITTLE MORE THOUGH NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. DRY
OTHERWISE WITH SLOW WARMING LATER IN THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNLIKELY TO RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN
FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDE SPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BUT LOW END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF
AND INTERMITTENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS
AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH AT THE PEAK. TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL HAVE NO ISSUE IN GENERATING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS
SHARP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS
AREA LATE BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD STRONGER WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY THE SPC. WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE QUESTION ABOUT THE TOTAL MASS AND CONTINUITY OF FUEL LOAD
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE ON-GOING DROUGHT THOUGH
AGREE THAT EVEN MORE LIMITED FUELS WILL BE PUSHED HARD BY SUNDAYS
EXPECTED 25-30 MPH WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS WATCH AREA STILL VALID SO NO
CHANGES THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 54 88 42 62 / 0 0 0 10 0
TULIA 90 59 92 45 64 / 0 0 0 10 0
PLAINVIEW 92 61 93 47 66 / 0 0 0 10 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 93 48 69 / 0 0 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 63 95 49 70 / 0 0 0 10 0
DENVER CITY 92 55 92 50 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 93 59 93 51 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 96 64 98 56 70 / 0 0 10 30 10
SPUR 95 65 97 57 73 / 0 0 0 20 10
ASPERMONT 98 68 98 62 75 / 0 0 10 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.
&&
$$
93
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
CONCERN ON PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER STATE...LEADING TO DEEP MIXING AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S IN SOME OF OUR DRIER SPOTS. MORNING SOUNDINGS MSP
AND GRB SHOWING THIS DRY AIR. AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITH SHORT
WAVE HAVING HARD TIME MOVING NORTH. HRRR SHOWS THE AREA DRYING UP
AS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WI. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS/POPS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
SHORT WAVE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST OF STATE.
MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEST WITH PCPN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSED
INTO SOUTHERN MN...SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN WI LATE. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH POPS...THINKING BEST POPS
NORTH LATE TONIGHT WITH 850 FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA.
PCPN WITH THE LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE N DURING THE MORNING...THEN
EXPECT A LULL FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPS/AFTN POPS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NEAR 6 C/KM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONCERN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SET UP. BASED ON POSITION OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT...WRF MODEL TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN/ECMWF. IF GFS IS CORRECT...THE
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE NO WHERE CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SHOULD SHOVE THE FRONT SOUTH. IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
ARE CORRECT...OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
EITHER WAY...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON
MONDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION THAT LINGERS INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN
FOR THESE REASONS. IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS OUTSIDE THIS PERIOD EACH DAY DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS
TRENDING WEST AND NORTH WITH PCPN TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN HAS TO
DEAL WITH RATHER DRY AIRMASS TODAY. PCPN THAT DEVELOPS TNGT SHOULD BE
PRIMARY OUT OF A MIDDLE CLOUD DECK... THOUGH COULD GET SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS SUN NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST
MN THRU SOUTHEAST WI. SUNNY...QUIET DAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A MORE ROBUST LOOKING SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SD/NEB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE AND
SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING RESPONSIBLE
FOR A BROAD BAND OF SCT SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN. PER 10.12Z KMPX SOUNDING...PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP
REACHES THE GROUND...AND MOST RAIN AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
10.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...BUT FOR GFS ABOUT 5F HIGH ON SFC
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO OFFER A TIGHTER CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE
TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND THE NEXT STRONG
TROUGHING/ ENERGY TO CROSS THE ROCKIES SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF/ CAN-GEM OFFERING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ROCKIES TROUGHING LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
GFS/NAM SLOWING TO MATCH UP. NAM APPEARS AS BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT
12Z MON WITH A FURTHER NORTH/EAST SFC LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT AND
ITS SOLUTION GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE NOW RATHER TIGHT NON-
NAM CONSENSUS THRU 12Z MON...SHORT- TERM FCST CONFIDENCE FOR A
RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WEAKENS AS
LOOSES THE BATTLE WITH THE RISING HGTS/RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. 925-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ WARM ADVECTION AND SOME 295-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE EVENING...IN
THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...THEN TAPER/END THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS/MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA. MOST
RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING AS SOME 850-
700MB DRYING TEMPORARILY SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEE LOW ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
SUN MORNING...WITH THE 700MB MOISTURE ARRIVING DURING THE LATER
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND 925-50MB MOISTURE ARRIVING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. QUESTION NO LONGER SEEMS IF ITS
GOING TO RAIN LATE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT HOW MUCH. BROAD/DEEP
LAYERED FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
ACROSS WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
AT 00Z MON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STABILITY/CIN OF 50-150IN THE
SFC-700MB LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LFC AROUND 700MB IN THE SOUNDINGS WITH THE CIN
IN A RATHER DEEP 900-700MB LAYER. CAPE PROFILE IS DEEP...BUT SKINNY.
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF AROUND 3500 METERS...THE SKINNY CAPE OF 500-
1500 J/KG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE ENOUGH FOR A BIG HAIL THREAT. WITH THE
AREA LOOKING TO BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUN EVENING AND THE CIN
BELOW 700MB...APPEARS MAIN TORNADO AND STRONG WIND THREAT WOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. ALSO...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
BE SPREADING INTO/ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/ EVENING...ALL
COMPETING FOR THE SAME CAPE/SHEAR...WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT
FROM ANY ONE TSRA. CONCERNS AS WELL ON SUN WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING
TOO WARM AND CAPE ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN THICKENING
CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE 3500 METER WARM CLOUD DEPTH...A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH FOR
LIFTING...PW VALUES NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND A FEED OF THIS
MOISTURE ON A 40-50KT 850MB JET SUN NIGHT ALL POINT TSRA BEING
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. CONSIDERED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...BUT IT WOULD HAVE AND TO BE RATHER BROAD
WITH QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. WILL ISSUE AND ESF FOR
NOW AND PASS ALONG CONCERNS TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/RAIN
AMOUNTS MON INTO MON NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES.
MODEL RUNS OF 10.12Z OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS MON/MON NIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SFC LOW
LIFTS TO LK SUPERIOR. TREND IS TOWARD COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS
ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE REGION WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY THE ECMWF. IMPROVING
CONSENSUS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH VIRTUALLY STALLS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE MON-TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS
AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
BROAD/DEEP FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA MON...ALONG WITH A
FEED OF THE 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ON A 30-40KT 850MB JET. STRONGEST OF
THIS IS OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSLATING
EAST MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC THRU 850MB COLD FRONT/TROUGH
MOVE EAST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF FORCING/LIFT REMAINS OVER
THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE 700-
500MB TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES LIFT UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THRU WESTERN MN. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA THRU MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON. AFTER A POSSIBLE
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA THEN TAPER OFF AND EXIT EAST THRU MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA.
CONCERNS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DEPICTED IN DAY 3 SIMILAR TO THOSE
CENTERED ON SUN EVENING. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST MON MORNING...AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY. DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND THE RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR CAPE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS
FOR MON BUT IF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA PREVAIL...THESE ARE LIKELY TOO WARM
RESULTING IN TOO MUCH CAPE IN THE PROGS. MON CAPE PROFILES ALSO DEEP
AND SKINNY SIMILAR TO SUN EVENING. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ALL COMPETING
FOR THE SAME CAPE/SHEAR WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ANY ONE STORM.
DRIER/COOLER 925-700MB AIR WRAPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON/
NIGHT FOR WHAT SHOULD BE DRY PERIODS AND A DECREASE OF CLOUDS. 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +2C TO -1C RANGE BY 12Z WED. THIS PLUS LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WED
MORNING APPEAR REASONABLE.
FOR WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COOL TEMPERATURES AND -SHRA
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 10.00Z/10.12Z HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WED/THU ON LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHING TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF RUNS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU/FRI...FURTHER DEEPENING THE TROUGH
AND CARVING OUT A MID LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR FRI
INTO SAT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY
4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ONE SURGE OF COLDER LOW LEVEL HAS ALREADY SETTLED OVER THE REGION BY
WED. A SECONDARY...EVEN COLDER SURGE IS POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE REGION FOR THU/FRI. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
-1C TO -3C RANGE AT 12Z FRI. SOME TEMP RECOVERY SAT AS WARMER AIR
ACTUALLY WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTH. SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR
850MB TEMPS TO BE SOME 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WE-SAT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD FOR DAY 4-7 HIGHS TO BE SOME 10-15F BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD A LITTLE TRICKER AND DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER ANY ONE NIGHT. WITH MODEST 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THE DEEP
COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION...CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD. IF ANY ONE OF THE
NIGHTS ENDS UP MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY...PATCHY FROST WOULD BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THU/FRI NIGHTS. FOR
NOW THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED- SAT ARE WELL
TRENDED.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON -SHRA CHANCES IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD AS THESE
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES THRU THE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. PRESENT TIMING HAS ONE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION WED THEN MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT. WITH THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...COLD CORE OF 850-700MB TEMPS OVER THE REGION...STEEP SFC-
700MB LAPSE...RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ANY SHORTWAVE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING SCT -SHRA.
SMALL -SHRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
REASONABLE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TIMING DETAILS CAN BE SORTED OUT.
ANY PRECIP DURING THE WED-SAT WOULD BE SCT AND LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 10.14Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AND BRINGS THEM EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING THEM. WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN AND BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVITY. EXPECTING THIS NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVITY TO APPROACH THE TAF SITES AROUND 00Z AND THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDER WITH IT AS THE 10.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 200-400
J/KG OF ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE. WILL HAVE A VCTS FOR THIS NEXT ROUND
BASED ON THIS AVAILABLE CAPE...BUT NOT SURE HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO
THE CHANCES AS THE HRRR WOULD PUSH IT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHILE THE NAM WOULD HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS AS BOTH
THE 10.12Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING. THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...THE BEST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MINOR FLOODING/HIGH WATER CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING WILL BE A
WET PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN/HIGHEST TOTALS WILL FALL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD HAVE
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ON BOTH TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...SLOWING THE RATES OF FALL...PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RISES OR
RENEWED FLOODING. WILL ISSUE AN ESF CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINS SUN NIGHT/MON AND RISING RIVER LEVELS/FLOODING THREAT.
CHECK THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPINNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE VIA
THE GFS/NAM AT 00Z ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO SKINNY CAPE THOUGH...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SOME 0-6 KM SHEAR BY 06Z...40-50
KTS...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENED/NIL BY THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
IS PACKING A BIT MORE PUNCH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED...MAKING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS MORE LIKELY FOR THE
SAT NIGHT. SOME HINTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH A PIECE OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE BULK OF IT FOCUSES
INTO A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER. DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER PER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
AROUND ANY OF THE ANTICIPATED STORMS. SKINNY CAPE WOULDN/T SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL FORMATION...ALTHOUGH SOME PEA SIZED CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
WEST COAST LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOING TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS SUN/MON...EJECTING PIECES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT/SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FORCING...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z
MON...GRADUALLY EASING INTO EASTERN WI MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT...WITH THE NOSE OF
A 40-50 KT 850 MB POINTING INTO SOUTHWEST WI SUN EVENING. THE STEADY
RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT
INTO MONDAY. GFS/NAM A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE INSTABILITY WITH THEIR
00Z RUNS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN WI BY 18-00Z SUN/MON. 0-6 KM SHEAR 45-50 KTS
BY 00Z...WITH 30+ KTS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. SEVERE PARAMETERS
INCREASING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. PW/S CLIMB TO OVER 1 1/2 INCHES.
THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING. A LOT IS
UNCERTAIN...AS IN WHERE VARIOUS SFC BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION COULD LIE...IF ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING BEFORE THE
MAIN SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FORCING SUN EVENING...HOW MUCH A
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT SEVERE POTENTIAL ADVANCING
NORTH ETC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOUNDINGS LEAN TOWARD A SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE TOO...AGAIN...NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS/EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. STAY TUNED.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL HANGS JUST EAST AND THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TIME
GOING EAST.
GFS/ECMWF FAVOR KEEPING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR...WITH 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES
VIA THE EC AROUND -1 MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 60 MANY OF THE DAYS. MEANWHILE...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS ON WHETHER OR NOT RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...AND THEN...IF THERE WOULD BE ANY PCPN
CHANCES WITH THEM. CONFIDENCE LOW IN THESE DETAILS...SO WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 10.14Z HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AND BRINGS THEM EASTWARD
WHILE WEAKENING THEM. WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR THESE SHOWERS THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN AND BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVITY. EXPECTING THIS NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVITY TO APPROACH THE TAF SITES AROUND 00Z AND THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDER WITH IT AS THE 10.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
200-400 J/KG OF ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE. WILL HAVE A VCTS FOR THIS
NEXT ROUND BASED ON THIS AVAILABLE CAPE...BUT NOT SURE HOW LONG TO
HOLD ONTO THE CHANCES AS THE HRRR WOULD PUSH IT THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WHILE THE NAM WOULD HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES TO THE EVENING
HOURS AS BOTH THE 10.12Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING. THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS SO
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
MINOR FLOODING/HIGH WATER CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A WET PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN/HIGHEST TOTALS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD HAVE
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ON BOTH TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...SLOWING THE RATES OF FALL OR PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RISES.
CHECK THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....RIECK