Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
409 PM PDT Wed May 7 2014
.Synopsis...
A frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring a
chance of showers to the mountains and a slight chance to the
valleys Thursday and Friday. Another low will skirt the area over
the weekend, perhaps bringing a few showers from the Lassen area
northward. Hot temperatures look to return by next week.
&&
.Discussion...
A few showers have developed west of the Sierra Crest from around
Tuolumne County southward this afternoon. The HRRR has a good
handle on these and shows things winding down after sunset.
Meanwhile, the cirrus shield from the next system is moving
onshore.
Clouds will increase tonight under warm advection and diffluence
aloft in advance of a trough moving into the Pacific NW. This
system features a respectable moisture tap of 1.35" PWAT per the
blended satellite PWAT product. Weak dynamics will be a limiting
factor, however, as the bulk of the synoptic forcing will brush
by to our north. The due westerly low-level flow will limit
precip in the Valley too, with notable rain-shadowing on the
higher-res models. Still, cannot rule out a few Valley showers,
especially in the 80 corridor tomorrow afternoon/evening. Light
precip tonight through Friday is a good bet for the coastal
mountains north of Lake County, while the Sierra will likely see
some on and off showers mid-day Thursday through Friday
afternoon. Snow levels are expected to remain higher compared to
recent disturbances (mostly at or above pass levels), so limited
impacts are expected.
Another closed low from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to open up
and clip far northern CA on Saturday along an inside slider
track. This feature may bring a few showers to the northern
mountains and northern Sierra, but otherwise won`t have much
impact. Strong high pressure forecast to build over the region
early next week for another significant warm-up. -DVC
&&
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Breezy north winds should continue Saturday night into Sunday as
the upper trough shifts east into the Great Basin. Depending on
how progressive this system is, temperatures could quickly rise
back up on Sunday as high pressure along the eastern Pacific
builds into California.
Warming trend will continue through at least the first half of
next week as the upper level ridge shifts over the state. The
latest GFS warms 850mb temps to around 23 C, which when warmed
adiabatically to the surface brings highs in Sacramento to the
upper 90s.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected through tonight across interior Northern
California. A weak system may bring VFR/MVFR showers to the
northern mountains after 18z Thursday. Across the Valley, south to
west winds 5 to 15 kt will become generally light tonight, then
increase to 5 to 15 kt again Thursday. Near the delta, southwest
wind gusts up to 30 kt possible through Thursday.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
247 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS IN SAN BENITO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 2:46 PM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SAN
BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES ARE DUE TO HEATING OF THE DAY AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. HNX DOPPLER RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG MUSTANG RIDGE AND THE
CHALOME HILLS...JUST SOUTH OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. SHOWERS COULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THE SAN BENITO HILLS BUT RADAR BEAM BLOCKAGE
COULD BE HIDING THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AS HEATING OF THE DAY DISSIPATES AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.
HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY VALID THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR
HERNANDEZ CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LI VALUES
AROUND -2.8 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A
DRY LAYER FROM 5000 FEET TO THE SURFACE SO MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IF NOT VIRGA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PERFORMED WITH THE 1800Z NAM12 AND 1200Z GFS40
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE GFS40 DOES
NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY. STRONG NW FLOW TODAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO TOMORROW MAINTAINING MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE STEEP FRESH
SWELL. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT COOLING...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...AND PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
SLOPES. INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS. A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE6500 TO 7000 FOOT ELEVATION. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED
WARMING POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 1215 PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED ALMOST NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH IS
EVIDENT...AS WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE HIGH 50S OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF 68 MPH REPORTED AT
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A
LITTLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW MORE MOUNTAIN
WAVES FORMING. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN
DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 3 AM
WEDNESDAY. IT IS SLIGHTLY LESS WINDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS THOSE MOUNTAINS ARE ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES FROM PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY FLOW. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH
GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. FINALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS...AND SO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS CONTINUES THROUGH
6 PM TODAY.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION...AND IT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX STARTS
TO COME DOWN OVER THE AREA. THE LOCAL WRF CONTINUES TO NOT SHOW TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVERALL COMPARED TO THE CANSAC
WRF...BUT IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHTNING
OBSERVED IN AREAS NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
IS...AND WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING INCREASED INSTABILITY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
CURRENT SNOW LEVELS ARE AT AROUND 6500 FEET...AND AREAS ABOVE 6500-7000
FOOT ELEVATION COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. AS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE LOWERED BY 10-15 DEGREES...AND
LOCALLY 20 DEGREES...COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMING
AND DRYING WILL OCCUR UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER
500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BECOME GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND WE MAY GET GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...DAY-TIME
HIGHS MAY REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
062000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN STRATUS LAYERS BETWEEN
2000 FT MSL AND 6000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 6SM IN SHOWERS. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK. A GUSTY
WEST SFC WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 07/0300Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
07/0300Z AND STRATUS BECOMING BKN-OVC WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL
AND TOPS 5000 FT MSL. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AFT 07/1700Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...AREAS OF SFC WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS IN ALONG
NORTH-SOUTH MTN CRESTS AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES AND PASSES...WITH
LOCAL 40 KNOT GUSTS IN SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS PARTS OF THE HIGH
DESERT. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE WINDS. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 3SM OR LESS IN BLDU. WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
100 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT IN BOTH
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS AND A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER
WATERS TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR INFO.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
222 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK STORM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
EITHER WARM AND DRY WEATHER OR A COLD, FAST MOVING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IS QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BEING SOUTH OF HWY 50 CLOSER TO DEFORMATION
BAND ALOFT AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE BY EARLY EVENING FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SCANT BELOW 7000 FT BUT 1-2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH SIERRA OF MONO CO. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
24-36 HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK
LINE. BEST FORCING FOR THIS PRECIP IS FURTHER NORTH OVER OREGON
WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK, BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER NE CALIFORNIA
AND NW NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS,
AND SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT WHICH REALLY LIMITS
IMPACTS. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HELPING KICK UP WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE. MAIN IMPACT HERE WOULD BE TO BOATERS ON LAKES SUCH AS
PYRAMID. CS
.LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN WIND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH MAY BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FAST MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD EITHER DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NV OR STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THESE WIDE VARIATIONS IN SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE COOLER SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AS
FAR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN MAX TEMPS ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS DOES NOT BRING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEVADA AT ALL, LEADING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE SUPPORT AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR AT LEAST SOME EFFECT OF A QUICK COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, SO MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED TO 65-70 DEGREES FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MODERATE NORTH WIND OF 10-15 MPH. WE ALSO MADE A
SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHOWER POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT, EXPANDING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA TO INCLUDE MOST OF PERSHING COUNTY IN ADDITION
TO AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS RIDGE REBUILDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
RETURNING TO THE 80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS BY TUESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING, THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS NEAR THE SIERRA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE WARMER SCENARIOS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE
WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN. IF TEMPS GET THIS WARM, LATE DAY CUMULUS
AND BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN FAVORED CONVERGENCE
ZONES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
STORM WHICH BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY CONTINUING IT`S QUICK PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS MEDIUM, WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
BEING HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND FOG POTENTIAL
AT TRK.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS MVFR SHOWERS IMPACTING MMH
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VACATING. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A TSTM IN VICINITY OF MMH BUT CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE INCLUDING RNO THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SCT-BKN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING
BUT EXACT TIMING OF THAT IS UNCERTAIN. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WOULD
BE AT TRK. WITH RECENT PRECIP IT WOULD SEEM FOG IS LIKELY AFTER
9Z/WED BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS JUST ABOVE SURFACE IS A TOUCH
TOO DRY FOR FOG. WILL MENTION VCFG IN TRK AS A HEADS-UP TO FOG
POSSIBILITY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL HAPPEN OR NOT. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN SAN BENITO
COUNTY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 9:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...COOL ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
WITH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
SAN BENITO COUNTY.
HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH
THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR HERNANDEZ IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LI OF -0.2 TO -2.7 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DRY LAYER FROM 7000
FEET TO THE SURFACE. THIS DRY LAYER WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL MINIMAL
IN FACT THERE MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN RAIN HITTING THE GROUND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH THE GFS40
DOES NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY. STRONG NW FLOW TODAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MARINERS VENTURING ON
OPEN WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD USE CAUTION AS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS
WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
922 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN SAN BENITO
COUNTY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 9:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...COOL ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
WITH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
SAN BENITO COUNTY.
HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH
THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR HERNANDEZ IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LI OF -0.2 TO -2.7 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DRY LAYER FROM 7000
FEET TO THE SURFACE. THIS DRY LAYER WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL MINIMAL
IN FACT THERE MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN RAIN HITTING THE GROUND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH THE GFS40
DOES NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THIS
MORNING...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KMRY WHERE CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET
PREVAIL. SATELLITE REVEALS THAT A FEW CLOUDS COVER THE HILLS AND
ARE OCCASIONALLY PASSING OVER AIRPORTS. IF CLOUDS DO IMPACT PARTS
OF SF BAY IT WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT. THE BIG STORY FOR TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONG NW FLOW. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR KSFO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A PASSING CLOUD OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THIS WAY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS ROLL OFF
NEARBY HILLS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. KSNS IS VFR THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MARINERS VENTURING ON
OPEN WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD USE CAUTION AS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS
WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
925 PM PDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL...WINDY WEATHER
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONTINUED COOL WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WHAT STARTED OUT AS AN INNOCUOUS 500 MB TROUGH 5 DAYS AGO...WITH
BARELY A HINT OF PRECIP OVER SO-CAL...HAS SINCE EVOLVED INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACKED WITH ENERGY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WAS NEAR SFO THIS EVENING AND WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND TRAVERSE SO-CAL TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION...THE CANSAC WRF HAS BY FAR THE HIGHEST QPF OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE HRRR EVENING MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE LOCAL WRF AND NAM4 ARE A DISTANT THIRD. MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TOMORROW...BUT THE PCPN TOTALS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE.
EXPECT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN SOME SECTIONS OF
COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE RAIN SHADOWED INLAND EMPIRE. A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AND VALLEY ZONES. STRONG OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PCPN
AMTS IN THE MTNS WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 9000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL FALL
TO AROUND 6000 FEET TUESDAY WITH COLD CORE ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG WINDS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS TUESDAY. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ACCELERATING MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...AS ARE THE WINDS ALOFT. THE CANSAC AND WRF MODELS SHOW 850
MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL
SURFACE IN THE LOWER DESERTS TONIGHT WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 65 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES AS STRONG
WIND ENERGY ALOFT SINKS TOWARD THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SLAM INTO THE BEACHES
UNIMPEDED WITH 15-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH.
WEDNESDAY...COOL...CYCLONIC NW FLOW LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY SO
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY...WARMER DAYS UNDER
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GEM AND ECWMF GENERATE A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS TOO FAR
NORTHEAST FOR ANY PRECIP DOWN HERE. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BRIEFLY
DEEPEN IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW...A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
060415Z...COAST/VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
OCCUR...WITH BASES MOSTLY AROUND 2000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 6000 FT
MSL. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. SCT SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI BELOW THE
CLOUD BASE. CONDITIONS TUE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM BKN-OVC TO
SCT-BKN BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE INLAND
TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE. AREAS OF WEST
SFC GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR TUE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
MTNS/DESERTS...AREAS OF TERRAIN MAINLY BELOW 6000 FEET AND MAINLY ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH 19Z TUE.
SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY 06Z THROUGH 19Z TUE. AREAS OF SFC
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES ALONG MTN CRESTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...DESERT SLOPES AND EAST
OF MOUNTAIN PASS...WITH LOCAL 45 KNOT GUSTS IN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. A ROTOR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES NEAR KPSP.
UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LLWS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS. LOCAL VIS
BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS.
&&
.MARINE...
915 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT IN BOTH
THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT...LOCALLY
HIGHER...WHICH WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING...PEAK TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ALSO INCREASE...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS AROUND 11 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR INFO
ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM PDT TUESDAY TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS...AND SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
829 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FROM THE
NORTHERN DENVER METRO AREA TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH
WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO HAS ALSO BEEN
DEEPENING FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AS A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTENSIFIES...WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL BE BE POSSIBLE. MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN AN INCH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR HIGHER POPS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
STRONG STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW STORMS
HAVE BECOME SEVERE. ALREADY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING. PER
PLATTEVILLE PROFILER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEEPENED OVER
THE FRONT RANGE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR. UPPER LOW OVER UTAH ALREADY
PROVIDING AMPLE QG ASCENT OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 80KT JET OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT LAPS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES
FROM 1000-2000J/KG. SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NOW LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STILL EXPECT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING LATER THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
COLORADO AND INTO NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE SUBSIDENT
AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE LOW. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN
THE AIR BUT AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AS WELL WITH
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 7000 FEET. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAIN
TOP AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SHUT OFF THE
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGH PEAKS.
RIDGING ALOFT...WARM ADVECTION AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS ARE COMING MORE
IN LINE WITH A PACIFIC UPPER LOW TO DROP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS LIKELY TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH TO PUSH
SURFACE WINDS UPSLOPE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERING STRENGTHS AND POSITIONS. GFS
IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THE EC AND GEM
FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE OF A CLOSED SOLUTION. STILL LOTS OF
DIFFERENCES EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. 700
MB LOW SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP OVER WESTERN COLORADO TO HELP TURN
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS AND FLOW UPSLOPE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS WELL AS THE
METRO AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE DOWN AS FAR AS
7000 FT. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE THE MOIST TREND WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE COLD ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S POSSIBLE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES TO SHOW THIS TREND. THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
OUT QUICKLY TO BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHEREAS THE GEM AND ECMWF WANTS TO HOLD ON TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE STATE AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE SOLUTIONS SINCE THEY BOTH SHOW
THIS.
AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...EXPECTING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO START PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST COAST TO BRING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND THEN
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECCTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WILL CONTINUE WITH RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING AS
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTH
OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
STORMS ARE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP THIS AFTERNOON SO DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STORM
TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR WATER PROBLEMS. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER 1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS OF WELD...MORGAN AND LOGAN COUNTIES.
WILL BE KEEPING WATCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S SYSTEM AS
SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND METRO AREAS...WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO COLD
POOL ALOFT AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SHOWERS ARE MOVING SE AND
WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA TOWARD MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD POOL WITH -25C AT 500 MB AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS TT SPIKE INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO EXPECT TEMPS GETTING INTO THE
MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE...BUT COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH WINDS TURNING SW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER HERE AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SUB-FREEZING READINGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER OUR REGION AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL.
DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...
TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING BY
PEAK MIXING. SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
00Z MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AT THE
SURFACE LEVELS. COMPARING GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES...THERE ARE
STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL AS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC. OVERALL HAVE A
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT. YET...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD THURS
INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
PUSH UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY MAY BE A DRYING OUT
DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT LOOKING AHEAD...LONG WAVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RIPPLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFFSHORE WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL TRY
TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE AND
SAG JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THANKS TO A COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
THAT PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW AVG ON THURSDAY.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR WAA
TO OCCUR AND WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE REGION AS WELL AS SOME THUNDER AS INDICATED IN ELEVATED
PARAMETERS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY
THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES...APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
RETURN FLOWING AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO 8C. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 25MPH
AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVG.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A LOT OF GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE
EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN A PACIFIC DIGGING SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THAT THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR CIGS 5-10K FT WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SW WED NIGHT. COASTAL SEABREEZES
LIKELY WED AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY AROUND
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH
SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS.
FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN CT AND EXTREME SE MA AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A
POSSIBILITY.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND
FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KT WITH SEAS UNDER 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS OUT OF THE
S TO SE FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE
WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE
DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AS MIN RH VALUES
DECREASE TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER
STATE OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
COLD POOL WITH -25C AT 500 MB AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS TT SPIKE INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO EXPECT TEMPS GETTING INTO THE
MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE...BUT COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH WINDS TURNING SW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER HERE AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SUB-FREEZING READINGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER OUR REGION AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL.
DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...
TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING BY
PEAK MIXING. SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
00Z MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AT THE
SURFACE LEVELS. COMPARING GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES...THERE ARE
STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL AS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC. OVERALL HAVE A
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT. YET...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD THURS
INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
PUSH UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY MAY BE A DRYING OUT
DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT LOOKING AHEAD...LONG WAVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RIPPLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFFSHORE WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL TRY
TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE AND
SAG JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THANKS TO A COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
THAT PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW AVG ON THURSDAY.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR WAA
TO OCCUR AND WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE REGION AS WELL AS SOME THUNDER AS INDICATED IN ELEVATED
PARAMETERS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY
THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES...APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
RETURN FLOWING AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO 8C. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 25MPH
AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVG.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A LOT OF GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE
EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN A PACIFIC DIGGING SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THAT THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. DIURNAL CUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPING ROM
MID MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. NW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW PROB OF A LATE SEA BREEZE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. THIS
WOULD MAKE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY
TODAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO THURS...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OCCUR WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS.
FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN CT AND EXTREME SE MA AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A
POSSIBILITY.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND
FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KT WITH SEAS UNDER 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS OUT OF THE
S TO SE FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE
WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE
DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AS MIN RH VALUES
DECREASE TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER
STATE OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY
AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP TONIGHT SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SATELLITE/TIME SECTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE
AND WILL STAY WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND LOW/MID 90S FOR
THURSDAY. OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM/LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT...BUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AS
SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POPS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL PREVENT CLOUDS EXCEPT
FOR A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY RESTRICTIONS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...THEREFORE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY
AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE/TIME SECTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S TONIGHT AND LOW/MID 90S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT...BUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AS
SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POPS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL PREVENT CLOUDS EXCEPT
FOR A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY RESTRICTIONS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...THEREFORE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY
AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE/TIME SECTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S TONIGHT AND LOW/MID 90S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT...BUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AS
SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POPS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE CONTROL THE
WEATHER. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BE THE RULE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS.
THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATED INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT AGS AND OGB 08/09Z
THROUGH 08/12Z. THE SREF MODEL KEPT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TAF SITES. GIVEN A DRY AIR MASS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS WELL AS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG OVERNIGHT.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA NOW. HOPWRF AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS OUR WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISO SEVERE POSSIBLE. MAY LATER GO CAT POPS ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR OF MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE...WAITING TO SEE HOW LONG
THEY HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN SOME REMAINING CAP ALOFT./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY EARLY/MID EVENING. NAM TRIES TO
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND NOSE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MESO PARAMETERS SUGGEST DECENT
CAPE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO PAGE HAVE DECENT CINH IN PLACE
AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA AS LLJ KICKS IN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z-09Z WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM ERN NE/SE SD LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. WITH THE CWA
IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AROUND 60...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
ONLY DROPPING INTO 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE EITHER AROUND MON
OR TUE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOMORROW HOWEVER WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF IA
AT ONSET OF PERIOD /12Z/ ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BUT
CONVECTION MAY BE BRUSHING PORTIONS OF NW IA AS WELL. LOBE OF WEAKER
FORCING WILL THEN LIFT INTO IA 18Z-00Z COINCIDENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET AND AT FIRST GLANCE THIS SHOULD HELP OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONDUCIVE HOWEVER. MLCIN
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME THAT THE MLCAPE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
MN. THUS THE WINDOW WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COUPLED
WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SMALL. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONDITIONAL AND CERTAINLY THERE WITH
DEEP SHEAR PUSHING 50KTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED CLOSER TO THE FRONT AXIS
THAN LINE NORMAL SO CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR
RATHER THAN DISCRETE AND IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVEN
DIMINISHED LARGE SCALE FORCING AS IT BEGINS TO SPLIT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD INTO FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRI BEFORE A RETURN
TO MORE PRECIP CHANCES. ALTHOUGH GREENNESS TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIP
MAY REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT...SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT DEEP MIXING AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS FRIDAY THAT COULD ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS.
RELATIVELY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF HOLDING FRONT BACK INTO SERN IA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO A PROLONGER PERIOD WITH POPS FAVORING
THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATER AS WELL. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDS OUR POPS BY TUE
HOWEVER SO THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. PERSISTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CONUS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
TEMP EXTREMES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ESSENTIALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...08/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND AND THUNDER. VERY ISO
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AREAS ATTM AND
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THOUGH CAP IS PRETTY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ADDITIONAL EVE THUNDER POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND ABOVE 12KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
AGAIN THURSDAY WITH GUST 30KTS AFT 14Z MOST AREAS. THUNDER CHANCES
MAY OCCUR AFT 09Z NORTHEAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MAIN
WAVE APPROACHING FROM WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT AREA FROM 16-18Z
WEST...18Z AND BEYOND EAST HALF THUR. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
SINCE FORCING UNCERTAINTY AND INITIATION TIME DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR EVENING TRENDS AND UPDATE FOR OVN
TRENDS WITH NEXT PACKAGE./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
IT HAS BECOME CLEAR EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOVEMENT NORTH BY THE WARM FRONT TODAY. DECIDED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LOWEST
DEWPOINTS. ALSO...THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS BEEN DELAYED IN
ADDITION TO WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THEREFORE...FELT THERE WAS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING RUNNING FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
OR BRIEFLY EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL BUT WITH THE WARNING ALREADY OUT...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
TO REMOVE THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
A LINGERING FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
STALLING AGAIN...THIS TIME BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK. AT KGLD...SOUTH
WINDS INVADE AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BACKING TO THE SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
SHALL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT AT KMCK. AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE EXPECTED
INVERSION DEVELOPS SO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...ONLY MENTIONED 6SM FOG AND SCT015 STRATUS.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE THESE CONDITIONS WORSE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
956 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
IT HAS BECOME CLEAR EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOVEMENT NORTH BY THE WARM FRONT TODAY. DECIDED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LOWEST
DEWPOINTS. ALSO...THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS BEEN DELAYED IN
ADDITION TO WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THEREFORE...FELT THERE WAS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING RUNNING FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
OR BRIEFLY EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL BUT WITH THE WARNING ALREADY OUT...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
TO REMOVE THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT KGLD AND EAST AT KMCK AS A
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
12KT...THOUGH IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE NORTH QUICK ENOUGH A FEW
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLD. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE AS THIS FRONT
STALLS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE TO SHOW IMPACT IN KMCK TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT KGLD AND EAST AT KMCK AS A
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
12KT...THOUGH IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE NORTH QUICK ENOUGH A FEW
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLD. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE AS THIS FRONT
STALLS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE TO SHOW IMPACT IN KMCK TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
251 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11Z-13Z AT
BOTH SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE DEWPOINT VALUES. HAVE DECIDED TO EXCLUDE MENTION
OF FOG AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
847 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Winds have subsided below Lake Wind Advisory Criteria as of 01Z,
so will let it die a natural death at the top of the hour.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape. Will see an increase in
mainly high cloud overnight, with persistent south winds and
slowly falling temperatures. Lows should generally be in the
middle 60s. The only real adjustment was to lower dewpoints a bit
through the night.
There are several areas of convection throughout the Plains this evening,
and the HRRR indicates that convective development will continue over
the Plains through the night. All of that activity is moving mostly
north and poses no threat to our region tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Updated for 00z aviation only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Will let the Lake Wind Advisory ride, though not sure it needs to
go until 9 p.m. Evening shift can end it earlier if need be.
Weak mid level impulse driving small convection near our SRN IL
counties early this afternoon. Feature will continue NE and for
the most part will be a non factor. Tonight through Thursday
mainly dry weather with occasional high clouds, and some CU
Thursday afternoon. Chance PoPs still in place far west late in
the day Thursday, spreading ENE into SEMO, SW IL through the
evening. Chance of convection will increase later Thursday night
from west to east, with best chance PoPs shifting to the ERN 1/3
of the area by early Friday afternoon. Could be some strong to
severe convection over the west part of the area Friday afternoon
and evening as a s/wv lifts ENE from the Plains into the Great
Lakes 18z Fri-06z Sat. Marginal on the severe, supported mainly by
steepening lapse rates, and an increasing upper jet, coincident
with surface based destabilization just ahead of a surface front,
that approaches from the west, and fails to make it into the area.
Evening convective chances will diminish with only slim chance
PoPs after midnight Friday night. Temps will be a blend of the
latest MOS, and previous numbers. Again, trended just a degree or
two lower Friday over the ERN 1/3 of the area, where clouds and
convective chances will persist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
The main item of interest in the long term will be a fairly strong
cold front that will move southeast across our region early next
week. This front will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms...followed by cooler and drier conditions for mid
week. Prior to the frontal passage...this weekend will be
seasonably warm and humid with a few showers or storms possible.
As far as the daily details...
Early Saturday...the remnants of a surface cold front or trough over
the Mid Mississippi Valley will dissipate. Southwest low level flow
will increase during the afternoon. A few showers or storms cannot
be ruled out near the dissipating surface boundary or within the
zone of increasing low level thetae advection. There will likely be
some weak upper level subsidence in the wake of the Friday night
shortwave...so any activity Saturday should be isolated. Temps will
be on the warm side for early May in the persistent southwest flow
pattern.
Saturday night and Sunday...an upper level ridge over the
southeastern states will strengthen slightly. This ridge will keep
our region generally warm and dry. A few isolated storms are
possible on the periphery of the ridge...mainly along and northwest
of the Ohio Valley.
On Monday or Tuesday...a fairly strong cold front will sweep
southeast across our region. The timing of the front is highly
variable among the models. The 12z ecmwf is similar to the 00z
run...keeping the frontal passage delayed until Tuesday. The 12z gfs
and its ensemble mean still brings the front across our region
Monday. There will be a period of showers and storms along and ahead
of the front...some of which could be rather strong.
By Wednesday...noticeably cooler and drier air will arrive as 850 mb
temps fall about 10 degrees Celsius. Even with abundant
sunshine...highs would only reach the lower 70s based on the
consensus 850 mb temps of plus 6 to plus 8.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 603 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Clear skies and continued gusty winds through sunset then winds will
back off to around 10 knots SSW. Overnight should start to see
some blow off from convection over the plains. Moisture continues
to increase over the area resulting in more low clouds Thursday.
There is some hint of 5k cig but single is weak and held off for
now. Winds get going Thursday similar to today. However do expect
additional cloud cover.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE VIRGINIA
COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT IS PUSHING EAST OF HATTERAS AND OUT TO SEA. THE
PROLONGED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HELD CLOUDS IN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VA AND NC...BUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THAT SAID CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
AND NORTHEAST NC WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM INDIANA
AND OHIO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS FORCING IN THE HRRR...NAM12
AND RUC IS RESULTING IN MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DEVELOP THESE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TRACKING
THEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS FARMVILLE...EMPORIA AND NORTHEAST NC.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NORTHEAST NC. THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO
NORFOLK AND RICHMOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER WED WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALLOWING CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIMITED HEATING EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS
EAST WED NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO LIFT BACK
NNE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND NRN COUNTIES. MUCH WARMER SSW
WIND WILL PREVAIL BY THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SW.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM SW-NE AND WITH THE HEAT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SHIFTING EAST...HIGHS WILL FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 WEST OF THE BAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST).
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S..WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SERN COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL DATA SLOWS THE APPRCH OF NEXT FRNT ACROSS
THE MTS UNTIL SUNDAY. KEPT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING DRY. SCT CONVECTION
PSBL IVOF LEE TROF RESULTING IN DIURNAL POPS SAT AFTRN/EVE. LOWS FRI
NIGHT L-M60S. HIGHS SAT 80-85...XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS.
FRONT APPRCHS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKENS/WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW WANT TO KEEP THIS WEAKEN
BNDRY/TROF HANGING ARND THE RGN THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
TRIGGER...KEPT CHC SHWRS/TSTRMS (20-40%...HIGHEST W OF BAY) IN FCST
THROUGH THE PRD. HIGHS EACH DAY 80-85 EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE 70S
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS U50S-M60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTN AND MOST SITES SHOULD
BE VFR BY AROUND 20Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOST CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A WARM BNDRY CONTINUES TO
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC. ECG IS MOSTLY LIKELY THE TARGET
FOR ANY CONVECTION WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR ORF GETTING SHRAS. LIGHT
NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO WED. SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...THEN CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THRU WED...BCMG SE-S BUT REMAINING
LIGHT WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS AOB 15 KTS...SEAS AVGG 1-2 FT. A
WEAK BKDR FRNT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WRM FRONT.
RESTURN SW FLOW SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
INCREASE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY BEFORE
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL THEN DOMINATE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND N CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES HAS LED TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW DISTURBANCES CROSSED THE REGION THIS
PAST EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...NOVA AND THE PANHANDLE OF WV OVERNIGHT. A THETA E GRADIENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LED TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE FROM THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA AS NLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSH THE WAA SOUTHWARD. 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS APPARENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS PAST EVENING. ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND SRN MD THIS
MORNING. 3KM HRRR HAS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS BY SUNRISE.
THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRY
NLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS SUBTLE WAA WILL EXIST
ACROSS THIS AREA. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND A
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. WAA WILL BE ENHANCED
AGAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SFC WARM FRONT MAY SLIGHTLY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE STATIONARY. WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WAA ALOFT...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND ANY THAT MOVES EASTWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ISO-SCT SHOWERS. ONLY CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AND MAINLY OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NE
MARYLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST REGIONS WED NGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND MOVING THRU THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS AND THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES
WOULD ALLOW FOR SRN EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA (PARTICULARLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MD) WED NGT.
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THU AND THU NGT.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE WARM FROPA.
THE 00Z NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF WERE ESPECIALLY BULLISH WITH THE IDEA OF
THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE NRN AND ERN SUBURBS
OF DC ON THU AND EVEN RETREATING TO THE SW A BIT THU NGT AS SFC
HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM WRN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS IN THE MU80S ARE
LIKELY IN WARM SECTOR TO THE SW OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP US DRY THRU AT LEAST THU NGT.
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST FRI AND OFFSHORE FRI NGT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISO TSTM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG PRE-
FRONTAL SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS FARTHER
EAST TOWARD I-95 FRI NGT. WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S FRI AND LOWS IN THE 60S FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PARENT LOW THAT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL
BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH
IT INITIALLY DEVELOPED UNDER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL
STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL US SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE
STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS/OUT OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK.
OVERALL THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT. VARIATION
IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON RAIN
CHANCES LOCALLY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
FRONT ENDS UP STALLING FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA MAY WELL END UP BEING DRY TO START THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60 SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS AND WET
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR
CHO-IAD. OVC CEILINGS WILL HELP NEGATE THIS AND THEREFORE KEPT LOW
VSBYS OUT OF THE TAFS. WILL MONITOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY SUNRISE AND CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED-THURS.
A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NEWD THRU THE REGION WED NGT BUT
THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR DCA-BWI-MTN THU AND FRI.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO THESE ERN TERMINALS THU NGT DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING HAIL IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
AND LOWER BAY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE AND
LIGHT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
LGT E-SE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. SLY WINDS INCREASE SAT WITH SCA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK/CEB
AVIATION...JRK/HAS
MARINE...JRK/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENT ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SW FLOW SHORTWAVES TO
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS TO THE FCST AREA.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...A SHORTWAVE NOW NEAR THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC 3H JET MAX
WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
WITH THE BEST MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
STAYING NW OF THE FCST AREA. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA...THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU AND THEN PUSH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI INCREASING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION ALONG INCOMING WARM FRONT...POOLING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES TO NEAR 40 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE WI BDR COUNTIES THU EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW CAPPED LOW-
LEVELS ARE FROM FCST SNDGS WOULD THINK THREAT OF SVR WOULD BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN JUST A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS A MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOC SFC RDG BUILD IN FM WEST BEHIND THE
FRIDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY
BE COOL ON SATURDAY (GENERALLY IN THE 50S) IN A LIGHT NRLY FLOW BUT
FARTHER INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF LOWER TO MID 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED UNDER PREVALENT SUNSHINE.
SAT NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SW FLOW SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE UPPER LAKES. WAA ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT SHRA TO THE AREA.
MODELS MORE UNCERTAIN ON EVOLVING PATTERN DETAILS FOR SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WED AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGS SE...DEEPENING MID-UPR LVL TROF
OVER THE SW CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH
SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPR LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT MOVING IT
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO GO
ALONG MORE WITH NCEP PREFERRED SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/GEM IDEA
WHICH SHOULD YIELD MORE SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHC FOR TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON NIGHT AND FOR THE ERN
PORTION OF CWA ON TUE AS ECMWF INDICATES NEG SHOWALTER INDICES IN
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM BY LATE EVENING
AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH
INCREASING MOIST AIR TAPPED BY THE SE FLOW...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP AT SAW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT CMX...WHERE THIS FLOW
WL UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WIND AT IWD SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THERE. SOME MARGINAL LLWS MAY IMPACT ALL 3 SITES WITH THE
STRENGTHENING/LOWERING FRONTAL INVERSION...ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE MORE STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER WILL BE
STRONGER. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM
FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND
TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS
TIME. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
EXPECT ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TO VEER TO THE SE THRU THU AS LO PRES
IN THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT
BACK ON THE COVERAGE. BUT AS MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE
DAY AND THU NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE S AHEAD OF THE LO MOVING
THRU MN...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE W. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE ON FRI NIGHT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HI SHIFTS
TO THE E AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
PASSES ON MON...THE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND THEN THE TO NW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE EARLY MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WITH THE RECENT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
HAVE SLOWLY COME DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR CHASSELL REMAINS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN
FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACT
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SLIGHT RISK TS POTENTIAL FROM SPC IS ALONG THE WI BORDER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE WARMER AIR
WILL BE FOG...WHICH IS STILL FCST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
AND TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NV AND S CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY PROGRESS E...STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /WITH THE APEX OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI/.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DESPITE THE SE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
INTO S WI AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NE INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE W HALF /PENDING RAIN SHOWER/
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO A CWA AVG OF 18C.
CURRENTLY FCSTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS S MN AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
CONCERN TS WISE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT MAY HOOK
UP THROUGH SW UPPER MI AND NEAR THE WI BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CATCH UP TO
IT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER E MN/NW WI AND THE W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS ONTARIO BY
MID DAY FRIDAY...DRAGGING THE INITIAL COLD FRONT E OF UPPER MI. THE
SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE W-NW.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2C BY SATURDAY MORNING AS PW
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.3IN...OR 45-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 30S FCST FOR THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP BEING A BIT LOWER.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
LOW /PICKED UP MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY WISE OFF THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF/ LOOKS TO BE OVER S CANADA AND MN AT 12Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE
RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS TO THE SW AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI AND MID CLDS ARND THIS FCST PERIOD WELL TO
THE N OF WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS. BUT DRY...STEADY ESE FLOW OF DRY
AIR OUT OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXITING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NE SHOULD
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN IF SOME -SHRA
MOVE INTO IWD/SAW LATE TNGT OR WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SW FLANK OF
HI PRES RETREATING THRU ONTARIO AND IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS...EXPECT SLOWLY VEERING NE TO
SE WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TO DOMINATE INTO THU. AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WED NIGHT/THU...FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE
COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON
THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE E ON SUN AS THE HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING LO
MOVES TO THE E. NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE KEY PIECES TO THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT IS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 997MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FEATURES
THAT WILL CONTROL THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA WILL BE
THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED WARM FRONT. THE BROAD WAA IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND MAY BRUSH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING EAST ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO
KENTUCKY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. THIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS AFFECTS THE POP FORECAST
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...SINCE STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD LIKELY TRACK THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WITH THAT EXPECTATION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND ALSO THE SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE MORNING DUE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CONVECTION
BRUSHING THE AREA.
THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE WARM FRONT IS SITUATED AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO TREND TO THAT FRONT BEING
SET FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH MATCHES EXPECTATIONS DUE TO SUPPRESSION
FROM THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA STARTED
LAST NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH HALF CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM (PEAK OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND POTENTIAL NOSE OF DEVELOPING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH) ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. WITH THE EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
COULD BE SOME HAIL...BUT WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A TALL/SKINNY
CAPE AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WOULD EXPECT IT TO STAY SMALL.
ONE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING) IS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN UNDER THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
THIS LOW STRATUS MAY END UP BRINGING MORE OF A FOG/DRIZZLE TO THE
AREA WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN/T OCCURRING AND PROVIDES
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THE FORECAST. THIS FOG WOULD BE
LARGELY HELPED BY THE WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE VERY COLD
LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. EXPECT THAT WARM MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
MARINE FOG.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKY IN PINNING
DOWN THE SMALLER DETAILS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS
TO QUICKLY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED OF EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS ...THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST (40-50KTS) INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BY THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. BEHIND THAT
CONVECTION...A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL TRYING TO TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING...THE DIMINISH THEM (AND
THUNDER CHANCES) IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND LARGELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
THINK BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES FOR THUNDER
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY TRICKY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE OF A BROAD BRUSHED LOOK AND HAVE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE CONVECTION
OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1
INCH...BUT PINNING THAT DOWN THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. AS
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THINK LARGEST THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND
MAYBE SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE GENERALLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE SPEED OF THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD MAKE FOR SOME WIND CONCERNS...IF (AND
THAT IS A BIG IF) IT CAN OVERCOME THE INVERSION AROUND 900MB AND
RESULTING LOW STRATUS OVER THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. WITH
SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-5C...SHOULD SEE A NICE MID MAY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHIFT EAST AND TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND ONLY BRING LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GEM ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SECOND WAVE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS WILL BE SEEN THIS THURSDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST BUT STILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT WE HAVE
FINALLY TRANSITIONED TOWARDS MORE MAY LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI AND MID CLDS ARND THIS FCST PERIOD WELL TO
THE N OF WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS. BUT DRY...STEADY ESE FLOW OF DRY
AIR OUT OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXITING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NE SHOULD
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN IF SOME -SHRA
MOVE INTO IWD/SAW LATE TNGT OR WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SW FLANK OF
HI PRES RETREATING THRU ONTARIO AND IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS...EXPECT SLOWLY VEERING NE TO
SE WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TO DOMINATE INTO THU. AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WED NIGHT/THU...FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE
COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON
THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE E ON SUN AS THE HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING LO
MOVES TO THE E. NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS
THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI
PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA
MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER.
BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED
PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS
WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE
SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE
HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS...
EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT
EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF
IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE
RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER
TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL
ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND
THE SFC LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE SET UP ALONG THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THROUGH NV AND S CA. CLOSER TO HOME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S...UP THROUGH MANITOBA AND QUEBEC.
THE INITIAL GLANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE NW CORNER OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AS INCREASED WAA SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
850MB TEMPS AVERAGING 2C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO AN AVG 5C BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ON SSE WINDS. DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM IWD TO
ONTONAGON SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT...THAT IS UNLESS
ISOTROPIC LIFT/WWA RAIN SHOWERS COME IN AS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE SET UP AROUND NE/KS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BASICALLY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES.
MUCH OF THE NE PROGRESS OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING FROM NE TO SW MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE
TO THE EJECTING 500MB TROUGH SLIDING TO THE NE ND AREA.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF RAIN AT LEAST AT
THIS TIME...BUT WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WITH E-SE SFC
WINDS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WITH LATEST FCST
PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE FCST MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
FOR THE INCLUSION OF TS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVE THE ELEVATED NATURE.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE STACKED SFC-500MB BY 12Z FRIDAY
OVER MN. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWED MORE RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVED ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY AND TO JAMES
BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY...MORE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...WITH A
POTENT SECONDARY FRONT SWINGING IN AND FINALLY CHANGING THE NEAR SFC
WINDS TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH
AGREEMENT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE 00-06Z FRI OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
DRY FOR NOW...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR DAYS
6/SUNDAY AND 7/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOW SOMEWHERE
TO OUR W AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE
500MB LOW STILL STUCK ACROSS CANADA /NEAR N SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA/. THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER N
CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRES WILL BE EXITING TO THE E LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED
INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER
ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU
SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION HAS
CONTINUED IS STEADY DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...GOING BELOW
ADVISORY STAGE.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE
LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AROUND 8
AM SUNDAY STILL AT PAINESDALE...AND THE 16IN OF SNOW DEPTH AT HERMAN
AROUND 8 AM MONDAY.
THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE
STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER.
EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH
LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
902 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Another unseasonably warm night due to strong southwesterly low
level winds and southerly surface winds. There will also be mid-
high level clouds tonight, much of it being high level convective
debris cloudiness from thunderstorms across the Plains. Could not
rule out isolated convection across portions of northeast and
central MO towards morning, but it appears that most of the
showers/thunderstorms will be north and west of our forecast area
late tonight looking at the latest HRRR model run.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
At 19z, a stubborn MCV was continuing to generate SHRA in southern
IL as it slowly made its way E-NE. Almost immediately behind it,
skies clear with full sunshine trying to make up for the cool temps
the clouds provided, with temps now surging into the mid-upper 80s
in central MO, but still stuck in the 70s for a good part of STL
metro and southwest IL. Southerly winds are gusting routinely to 25
mph or more.
A deep upper level TROF is located over the Rockies, with a piece of
energy set to eject from this and move rapidly northeast across
northwest MO late tonight and Thursday morning. Combined with a lo
level jet just to the southwest of central MO, may see a shower or
thunderstorm develop toward daybreak. What develops from there will
have some difficulty advecting northeastward as it moves into an
area with a stronger cap.
A stout southerly wind for most areas will keep temps up, despite
initially clear skies. Prefer the warmer end of MOS as a good
starting point, yielding mins in the mid 60s for most areas, similar
to persistence.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Primary forecast issues include the potential for severe weather
on Thu and/or Fri as well as temperature trends.
Aloft...A strong vort max will lift out of the desert southwest
tonight, reaching western KS/NE by 12z Thu. The position of the
surface low and associated fronts would place the LSX CWA in the
warm sector for most of the day on Thu. As this vort max lifts
northeastward towards the western Great Lakes tomorrow and
tomorrow night, another vort max will enter the western side of
the trough and approach MO/IL on Fri. PW values will rise to +2SD
at times. With the passage of the upper trough on Fri night, flow
aloft becomes quasizonal on Sat, although some models also show a
shortwave that zips through the flow across IA or southern MN. The
flow pattern becomes southwesterly aloft again late this weekend
once a new trough develops out west. Models disagree on whether
this system becomes closed off, but most models do show it moving
across MO/IL on Mon or Tue.
At the surface...One of the interesting features with the Thu/Fri
system is that although the northernmost surface low is forecast
to accompany the the first shortwave and move northeastward, the
development of a secondary surface low back along the cold front
in OK/TX will likely delay the passage of the cold front through
MO/IL until Fri/Fri night when the upper trough moves through.
This front then quickly moves back north as a warm front on Sat.
The thermal and moisture contrast across the boundary should
increase on Sun and Mon due to persistent southerly to
southwesterly flow on the south side of the boundary. This
boundary is forecast to move through the LSX CWA on Mon/Tue as a
cold front, but the 12z models disagree on how quickly the front
moves southeastward.
Severe weather potential for Thu...0-6 km bulk shear vectors are
forecast to be nearly parallel to the H85 boundary in KS on Thu,
suggesting a linear mode for convection farther west. Bulk shear
values remain fairly low across eastern MO through most of the day
before increasing to around 30-40 kts during the late afternoon
and evening hours. The threat for severe weather across the LSX
CWA will depend on how far eastward the initial convection can
progress as well as the extent of cloud cover and whether enough
breaks occur for greatest destabilization during the afternoon and
early evening. Strengthening LLJ and moisture convergence across
the area should support elevated thunderstorms across the area on
Thu night. If an MCS develops, there could be a threat for
damaging winds.
Severe weather potential for Fri...Depending on convective trends
on Thu night into early Fri morning, there may be a severe weather
potential on Fri afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Models depict favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of 6.5 to 8 deg C/km
along with 30-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and increasing lift
ahead of a strong vort max. Models differ on the timing of the
vort max and that detail could be the difference between overnight
convection which persists into the day and enough rain-free hours
for the vort max to initiate a distinct round of convection within
a destabilizing afternoon environment. The threat for severe
weather on Fri would tend to be across the southeast half of the
CWA.
Temperature trends...Expect warm temperatures through Fri followed
by a brief cool-down on Fri night across the northern CWA, perhaps
even as far south as the I-70 corridor. Temperatures warm up again
on Sat and Sun before another cold front moves through on Mon or
Mon night. Expect cooler temperatures for the early and middle
part of next week with northwest surface winds around a high
pressure center over the plains.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Dry and VFR conditions will continue through this evening. There
is a slight chance of a shower over central Missouri late tonight
and early tomorrow morning, so will maintain a VCSH at KCOU for
that. Otherwise, it does appear that a line of thunderstorms will
move into central and northeast Missouri during the mid-late
afternoon hours on Thursday and then moves into eastward into
eastern Missouri and western Illinois by early evening. I have
added categorical groups for storms at 21Z at KCOU and 00Z at KSTL
for this, and did add mention of VCTS at KUIN at 21Z. A few
isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and excessive
wind gusts are possible...particularly around KUIN and KCOU.
Otherwise, did add LLWS at KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS as it does appear
that they will meet the criteria by 06Z. KCOU and KUIN still looks
like they will meet criteria tonight as the low level jet develops.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions until late
tomorrow afternoon when the chance of thunderstorms increases.
LLWS conditions will increase after 06Z tonight.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
930 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA THE PAST 36 HOURS IS SLOWLY PULLING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS IS DOWN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS EVENING AND HAS ENTERED OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLEARING IS
STARTING TO OCCUR. RADAR SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
LEFT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
THAT FELL...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF A MILES CITY
TO SHERIDAN LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE WEST SO SOME ICE OR FROST ON AREA ROADS AND BRIDGES IS A
POSSIBILITY SO MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD BE AWARE. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY SLOW MOVING TROF OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH WITH DIMINISHED PCPN RATES. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS IMPACTING OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS...SO HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORNS.
COLDER TOPS CONTINUE FOR OUR WEST...AND SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN
WY MAY FEED INTO THE MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET
THE WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS RIDE INTO THE EVENING.
COLE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE MTNS ABOVE RED LODGE HAS ALREADY PICKED
UP AT LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. SFC RIDGING IN
EASTERN MT SUPPORTS LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH A LITTLE CLEARING FROM THE NW LATER ON.
12Z GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT RECENT RAP RUNS SEEM TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED
FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM 06-15Z. OTHER IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF YOU
HAVE SENSITIVE PLANTS OUTDOORS.
QUIET DAY IN STORE TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE WEST AND WE
BEGIN TO WARM UP. ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
ALMOST ENTIRELY MISS OUR CWA TO THE SE...SO A DRY FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD FOR TOMORROW AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
WEST.
NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY...GIVING US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THIS
ENERGY SO COULD SEE SHOWERS IN OUR WEST BY MORNING...SO NOT QUITE
AS GOOD A CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY AS A RESULT FOR OUR WEST.
NONETHELESS WITH GOOD QG FORCING HAVE RAISED POPS FRI AND FRI
NITE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO TURN PCPN BACK TO SNOW
FOR OUR MTNS BY FRI EVENING...WITH A BIT OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
MTNS FRI NITE. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS FRI AFTN AND
EVENING PER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI WILL REACH THE 60S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN OUR EAST W/ LATER
FROPA.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT WET...AFTER A WARMER
FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6000 FT ACROSS THE REGION...SO MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDE THIS RIDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POP VALUES AROUND CLIMO UNTIL
CERTAINTY BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IN SIGHT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STUNT
THE MELTING OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWPACK ANOTHER WEEK. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN OVER THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE
ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KBIL
SOUTHEASTWARD TO KSHR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR...TO CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT...WHEN PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM...CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES. EXPECT THE FOG TO
BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH VFR PREVAILING
AFTER THAT. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/057 040/065 043/058 038/057 040/062 042/065 043/062
21/B 04/T 55/W 43/W 33/W 22/W 44/W
LVM 025/061 037/061 036/055 035/056 035/059 038/064 039/064
21/U 16/T 55/W 43/W 33/W 32/W 22/W
HDN 032/057 033/068 039/060 034/060 037/064 039/067 040/064
21/B 03/T 64/W 53/W 33/W 22/W 44/W
MLS 033/057 035/069 043/059 037/058 038/062 041/064 042/060
21/B 02/T 55/W 52/W 23/W 23/W 44/W
4BQ 032/054 034/068 041/059 035/058 036/061 039/064 040/060
22/W 01/B 54/W 32/W 23/W 22/W 33/W
BHK 033/054 032/067 041/059 035/056 036/058 038/060 039/057
21/B 01/U 55/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 33/W
SHR 031/054 031/065 038/056 032/055 034/059 036/063 037/062
22/W 02/T 54/W 44/W 34/W 33/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
503 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. COOKE CITY WEB CAMS SHOW MAINLY
DRY STREETS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST AN INCH OR LESS OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY SLOW MOVING TROF OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH WITH DIMINISHED PCPN RATES. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS IMPACTING OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS...SO HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORNS.
COLDER TOPS CONTINUE FOR OUR WEST...AND SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN
WY MAY FEED INTO THE MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET
THE WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS RIDE INTO THE EVENING.
COLE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE MTNS ABOVE RED LODGE HAS ALREADY PICKED
UP AT LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. SFC RIDGING IN
EASTERN MT SUPPORTS LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH A LITTLE CLEARING FROM THE NW LATER ON.
12Z GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT RECENT RAP RUNS SEEM TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED
FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM 06-15Z. OTHER IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF YOU
HAVE SENSITIVE PLANTS OUTDOORS.
QUIET DAY IN STORE TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE WEST AND WE
BEGIN TO WARM UP. ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
ALMOST ENTIRELY MISS OUR CWA TO THE SE...SO A DRY FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD FOR TOMORROW AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
WEST.
NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY...GIVING US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THIS
ENERGY SO COULD SEE SHOWERS IN OUR WEST BY MORNING...SO NOT QUITE
AS GOOD A CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY AS A RESULT FOR OUR WEST.
NONETHELESS WITH GOOD QG FORCING HAVE RAISED POPS FRI AND FRI
NITE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO TURN PCPN BACK TO SNOW
FOR OUR MTNS BY FRI EVENING...WITH A BIT OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
MTNS FRI NITE. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS FRI AFTN AND
EVENING PER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI WILL REACH THE 60S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN OUR EAST W/ LATER
FROPA.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT WET...AFTER A WARMER
FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6000 FT ACROSS THE REGION...SO MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDE THIS RIDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POP VALUES AROUND CLIMO UNTIL
CERTAINTY BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IN SIGHT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STUNT
THE MELTING OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWPACK ANOTHER WEEK. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
KBIL...KMLS...AND KSHR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM WORKS
ITS WAY EASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL PRESENT
ITSELF...ESPECIALLY AT KBIL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CAUSING
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/057 040/065 043/058 038/057 040/062 042/065 043/062
51/B 04/T 55/W 43/W 33/W 22/W 44/W
LVM 025/061 037/061 036/055 035/056 035/059 038/064 039/064
51/U 16/T 55/W 43/W 33/W 32/W 22/W
HDN 032/057 033/068 039/060 034/060 037/064 039/067 040/064
51/B 03/T 64/W 53/W 33/W 22/W 44/W
MLS 033/057 035/069 043/059 037/058 038/062 041/064 042/060
31/B 02/T 55/W 52/W 23/W 23/W 44/W
4BQ 032/054 034/068 041/059 035/058 036/061 039/064 040/060
52/W 01/B 54/W 32/W 23/W 22/W 33/W
BHK 033/054 032/067 041/059 035/056 036/058 038/060 039/057
31/B 01/U 55/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 33/W
SHR 031/054 031/065 038/056 032/055 034/059 036/063 037/062
52/W 02/T 54/W 44/W 34/W 33/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
315 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER NEVADA WITH DIFFLUENT/
UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW OVER UT/WY...WITH HEALTHY TS ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN WY. NORTHERN BRANCH TROF OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND IS NOW NEAR JUDITH GAP...A FEATURE THAT WILL SUPPLY OUR
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR
DEEP ASCENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY AND HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PCPN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS...GREATEST IN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND JUST A BIT
LESS IN OUR EAST. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR S/SE
INTO THIS EVENING...WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 60F.
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH FROM CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL WY ALONG/NEAR SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED THERE.
A FEW INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS TO NOTE. FIRST IS THE AFTERNOON
TEMPS FROM CTB-GTF ARE COLDER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
21Z BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND NOTICE THE 32F READING AT MONARCH
CANYON AT 5200 FEET IN THE LITTLE BELTS INDICATIVE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION/LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT
IS THE DEWPT OF 24F AT CUT BANK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WET BULBING DOWN ONCE THAT AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED COLDER FASTER AT 850MB...SHOWING THE 0C LINE THRU JUDITH
GAP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BILLINGS BY 09Z. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE NORTH ASPECTS BEGINNING BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE BIG HORNS ARE
NOT OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED IN THIS EVENT W/ SOUTH FLOW ALOFT...BUT
STRONG ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ADVY SNOW AMTS LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SO MAIN ISSUE TODAY WAS TO WORK OUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH GREAT BASIN TROF LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW TO STALL OUT NEAR WEST
YELLOWSTONE...AGREED UPON BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT WE
WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ASCENT AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS IN OUR WEST EVEN AFTER PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY FOR LIVINGSTON AREA...SWEET GRASS
AND STILLWATER THRU TOMORROW...WITH EXPECTATION OF A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...PCPN WILL BE ABUNDANT TONIGHT BUT MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IN THIS AREA
TOMORROW...EAST OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW...SO NOT SURE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A SNOW ADVY FOR AREAS SE
OF BILLINGS INCLUDING SHERIDAN AND LAME DEER. THAT BEING SAID...
WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE PASSES SUCH AS ABERDEEN
HILL AND LAME DEER DIVIDE. WILL LET THE EVENING AND NIGHT SHIFTS
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS HERE TO SEE IF AN ADVY IS NEEDED...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW.
AS FOR BILLINGS...IT IS GOING TO SNOW THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.
SFC TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S BY TOMORROW MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S THRU THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASS IN THE CITY...AND A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE SURROUNDING HILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES. IF
TEMPS MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 20S WE COULD SEE MORE THAN
THIS...BUT NEITHER THE MODELS NOR UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THIS WILL
HAPPEN. SO WILL KEEP YELLOWSTONE COUNTY OUT OF A WINTER HIGHLIGHT
AT THIS TIME.
FOR THOSE AREAS RECEIVING SNOWFALL...IMPACTS WOULD INCLUDE TRAVEL
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PASSES....AND POSSIBLY STRESSED BUDDING
TREES FROM THE WET SNOW.
OUR FAR EAST MAY MIX WITH SNOW TOMORROW MORNING BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...IE FOR PLACES FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS EASTWARD...AND MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AND WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO STAY TO OUR EAST. AFTER A VERY CHILLY DAY
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND A COLD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS...TEMPS THURSDAY
WILL RISE TO THE 50S/NEAR 60...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH BEGINS
FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SIMILAR FEATURES AT THE 500MB
LEVEL...HOWEVER...SOME IMPORTANT THINGS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NW UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. ACTUALLY...MONTANA FALLS IN SOMEWHAT OF A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL VORT MAXES TO MAKE IT THROUGH
THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.
DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OR NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR
MOST DAYS...WITH THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN STORE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. EXPECTING
RAIN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH A
POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO SNOW DUE TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE...WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE OBSCURED BY A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH TOMORROW. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/038 030/057 039/067 043/061 039/057 040/058 040/058
++/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
LVM 032/038 027/060 034/063 036/057 037/055 036/053 036/056
++/O 61/B 14/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
HDN 037/040 032/057 033/068 039/063 034/060 040/059 040/060
++/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
MLS 038/044 035/057 035/067 043/061 038/059 039/058 040/059
99/O 32/W 02/T 44/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
4BQ 041/044 034/054 034/067 041/062 036/059 039/058 040/056
++/R 52/W 11/U 44/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
BHK 040/045 035/053 032/063 041/060 036/056 038/055 038/055
89/R 42/W 11/U 45/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
SHR 037/039 031/053 031/065 038/059 033/056 036/056 037/054
99/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 34/W 33/W 43/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 34-41-65.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 56-66-67.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHEAST WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WERE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THERE...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
90S ALSO SEEN/EXPECTED. IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA...DEEPER MIXING WAS
OCCURRING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WERE DRYING LOW
LEVELS AND BOOSTING TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT WERE NOSING INTO JEFFERSON/SALINE COUNTIES AS OF 2 PM...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST ACROSS RED FLAG WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE EVENING.
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION WERE OF NOTE AT EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. CONGESTUS-LOOKING
CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO IGNITE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CLOUD
TOP COOLING ALGORITHMS WERE SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THOSE
CLOUDS TO CONVECT. BUT IF THEY DO...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY RIDE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS
NOTED OVER THIS AREA...SO THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE NOTHING WILL
GO CLOSE TO OUR AREA...FOCUSING ACTIVITY MORE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE INHIBITION IS LOW.
KANSAS POTENTIAL CONVECTION WAS BUBBLING UP UNDER INCREASING MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 90S.
DRYLINE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ADDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
THE MIX. ALSO OF NOTE...MESOSCALE MODELS RAP AND HRRR ALONG WITH
NAM12 EVENTUALLY BUBBLE CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOVE THAT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE INTERACTION WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL. CINH IS LOWERING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE DEW POINTS HAD ONLY MIXED INTO THE 50S...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE. SO GIVEN INSTABILITY...FRONT IN THE AREA...AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL DATA FIRING CONVECTION...WILL ADD AT LEAST
SMALL POPS TO MOST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE...WITH AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
THEN LATER TONIGHT...STORMS FIRING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REGION
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANY MORNING STORMS TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID MORNING BEFORE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MARCHING EAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. VARYING MODEL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
STILL APPARENT...BUT WERE BETTER IN LINE SHOWING BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AT TIME OF MAX HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WEST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND CLOSE TO 50KT OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL RESIDE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO FIRE. STORMS WILL RACE NORTHEAST AS FRONT
PUSHES EAST...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR THOSE AREAS. SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND EXITING FRONT...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVE INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. AS WAVE TRACKS EAST ON
SATURDAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE
MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY...THEN PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BUT ALL POINT TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AT LEAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING-TYPE SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH FOCUSING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD. SO HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD BRING ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA AND THIS COULD SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE INCLUDED A FEW TEMPO
GROUPS TO COVER THIS. KOFK REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING IN AN MVFR CEILING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ050-051-
065>068-078-088>090.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
NEARING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO NOTED EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS ENHANCED
FLOW THEN SPLITS INTO TWO BRANCHES...WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS
WELL AS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION IS NOTED MOVING FROM WEST-TEXAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY
LINE IS NOTED EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW
AND AS OF 20Z WAS NOTED FROM NEAR KBIE...TO NEAR KCNK...TO NEAR
KGBD. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWESTERN
CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRY LINE...HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST...WITH THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST...AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT
WAVE...FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THUS
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESULTANT OMEGA TO OUR NORTHWEST AS
WELL. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE
HRRR...1KM WRF-ARW...1KM WRF-NMM AND 4KM WRF-NMM. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM SOME SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD BRUSH OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
WANT TO MONITOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CASE IT TRIES TO MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTION COULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE DRY LINE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SINCE
THIS DRY LINE HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA ANY RESULTANT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE INTO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~60KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THIS JET APPEAR AS THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS
...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND
1KM WRF-ARW. COVERAGE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST
AND THUS DID NOT WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20% POP FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THE MOST PART.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING POPS ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT EXTREME
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST COULD ALSO OBSERVE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS
OUR EXTREME EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM
AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST PARCELS ROOTED TO AROUND 800MB WILL
HAVE ~1000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY WITH MINIMAL CIN. DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SO
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DOES NOT SEEM OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FOR TONIGHT IN THE
HWO. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER OUR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA SO WENT AHEAD
WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THAT WAY. ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE INTRUSION OF A DRIER
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL LIKELY PREVENT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FROM CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE 1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR COULD APPROACH 50KTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...THUS PROMOTING A COOLER DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALOFT: MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FROM THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOW
THAT THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE WRN USA THRU MON
5/12...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN USA. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL EXIT E OF THE REGION FRI...TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING THE WRN
USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL
DROP INTO THE WRN TROF SAT...RESULTING IN RE-AMPLIFICATION SUN-
MON. BY THIS TIME FRAME...THE USUAL MODEL BIASES APPEAR WITH THE
06Z/12Z GFS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP...AND THE
00Z/12Z GEM ON THE SLOWEST SIDE. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC DO
FAVOR THE SLOWER GEM. EVEN THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE UKMET COINCIDE
WITH THE GEM. THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR RAINFALL. THIS RENEWED TROF
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS TUE AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA WED-FRI
WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
THE TROF MOVING INTO THE W SAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE TROF E INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE ENERGY
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL SLIP S INTO THE REGION THU
NIGHT WITH THE COOL FRONT DEPARTING FURTHER TO THE S AND E. A NEW
LEE SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP FRI...WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ADVANCING
THRU THE NRN PLAINS FRI-SAT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH/. THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU HERE FRI
NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUN AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE W...AND CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THE FRONT...ACROSS KANSAS CITY
MON MORNING...AND SHOULD BE OVER IL BY 00Z/TUE BASED ON THE 00Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES WILL ENVELOP THE PLAINS TUE-
WED.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX...THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRI-WED...WITH VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 DAY OF
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. RIGHT NOW IT/S MON. ANOTHER VERY
GOOD ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE EXITING COOL FRONT WILL NOT
PLUNGE DEEP INTO THE S. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THE
LOW WILL ALSO BE TRACKING S OF THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
BENEFICIAL/SOAKING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS REALLY
ISNT MODELED YET...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH THE FRONT
HAVING ANABATIC CHARACTER.
THE 16Z WPC EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION WAS REVIEWED.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN S-SE OF THE TRI-
CITIES. DOESNT CURRENTLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME SUN-MON.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: CLEARING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
FRI NIGHT: INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEGATIVE TILT NRN
PLAINS TROF MOVES THRU ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT
TROPOPAUSE JET.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED SPRINKLES HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF I-80. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE NO LOWER THAN 10K FT. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN.
SAT: MORNING COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CHANCE OF MORNING
SHWRS/TSTMS WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST AND REPLACED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THEN CLEARING AND A
LITTLE WARMER.
SAT NIGHT: A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL INDUCE STRONG
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH THE LLJ VEERING THRU THE NIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO BE E OF THE FCST AREA.
SUN-MON: LOTS OF DETAILS LEFT TO BE DETERMINED. BELIEVE ODDS ARE
VERY HIGH OUR CURRENT HIGH TEMPS ARE WAY TOO WARM BOTH DAYS. WE
ARE BASICALLY CARRYING 60-70F. CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST
50S AND THIS LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
BLUSTERY N WINDS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
TUE: DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NW FLOW ALOFT.
WED: NW FLOW MAY DELIVER A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. TERMINAL STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE
E/NE WINDS DEVELOPING LATER ON. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEPT THAT MENTION
GOING...ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN AS THE SFC FRONT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-063-064-
074>077-083>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
354 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GET WEDNESDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER
THE WEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WARM...+12C H7 TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED OVER KANSAS. AT H85...THERE
WAS SOME POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT OAX...HOWEVER IT WAS
FAIRLY DRY AT H85 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE MAP AT
20Z...CONTINUED TO SHOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S...HOWEVER...THE MID 80 HAD MADE IT INTO FALLS CITY.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THE WARM
FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD BE AROUND
LINCOLN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THERE IS SOME BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THE TRAJECTORY FOR THE BEST PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER
SOMETHING ISOLATED MAY TRY TO DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUT OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IF SOMETHING HIGH BASED DOES
DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA IS WHERE OUR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MENTIONED. THE
LATEST RAP IS HINTING AT SOMETHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VERY DRY AIR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RESULTING
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
RECORDS 95/96/99 OMAHA/LINCOLN/NORFOLK... BUT COULD GET CLOSE IF
FULL HEATING IS REALIZED. AS DISCUSSED BELOW...DUE TO THE
GREENESS...THE RFW WAS LIMITED TO THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN THE
DRIEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE RICH AIR RETURNING TO
EASTERN KANSAS AND A NARROW AREA MAKING IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA. DO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED. THERE IS A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGER
DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO FORM AT KOFK AFTER
08Z...AND PERHAPS IN THE KOMA AREA AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WE DO HAVE SEVERAL COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO BE REALIZED. THE
FUELS ARE THE WILDCARD FOR THIS FORECAST AND REALLY VARIES
DEPENDING ON THE LAND USE. PASTURES ARE GREENING UP AND CORN
STALKS MAY OR MAY NOT BE A FACTOR DUE TO RECENT PLANTING EFFORTS.
IN TALKING WITH EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
COUNTIES...CRP LANDS (CROP REDUCTION PROGRAM LAND) HAS GRASSES
THAT ARE 4 TO 6 FEET TALL AND ARE STILL BROWN...AND SLOW TO GREEN.
IT WAS NOTED THAT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALSO
HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN AS COUNTIES TO THE NORTH. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW OF OUR COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ051-065-
066-078-088-089.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 16 HOURS OF THE
TAF...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AND A POSSIBILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS 10-14Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE NOTED AT GRI THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT HOWEVER...STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE
CALL AT GRI AS THE BULK OF THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SITUATE
ITSELF NORTHWEST OF GRI...BUT MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO IMPACT GRI. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A CEILING AT
1500FT AGL IN THE TAF 10-14Z. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A
CEILING CLOSER TO 500FT AGL WILL BE REALIZED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SUCH CONDITIONS AND WILL DEFER TO
FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE INSERTION OF IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE TAF. INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE STRATUS AT GRI
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS AT GRI BY 14Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT BEGINS CLEARING THE AREA...AND THEN BECOME SUSTAINED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10KTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES SOMEWHAT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS/CLEARS THE AREA. WENT
AHEAD WITH 5SM 10-14Z...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS
AN IFR VISIBILITY COULD BE REALIZED. JUST LIKE THE IFR
CEILING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SUCH
CONDITIONS INTO THE TAF AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER POSSIBLE INSERTION OF AN IFR VISIBILITY INTO THE TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THEME THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THAT
LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLY EVEN IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IS POSSIBLE
VERY LATE TONIGHT DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE SAME MODELS/GUIDANCE PREDICTED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES/STRATUS FOR THIS MORNING AND NOTHING
MATERIALIZED...AM FEELING PRETTY GUN-SHY ABOUT JUMPING ONTO ANY
TRULY-PESSIMISTIC SOLUTIONS FOR THE 21-24 HOUR TIME RANGE. AS A
RESULT...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT SOME VERY LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL
WITH A MENTION OF 6SM VISIBILITY AND A SCATTERED LOW STRATUS
DECK...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A
MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. PRECIPITATION-
WISE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MORE THAN 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY ON DIRECTION...AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS
INSISTENT ON FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP
DIRECTION PRIMARILY WITHIN 30 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF DUE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TAF REFLECTS THIS MORE EASTERLY
APPROACH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-FREE CONDITIONS. HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISREGARDED GFS/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT
APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO PESSIMISTIC REGARDING ITS INSISTENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUB-VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DURING THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS...AND THUS THIS FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THERE WILL BE AT-WORST ONLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UNDER THICKER PASSING BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS.
AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE MORE THAN 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY ON DIRECTION...AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS
INSISTENT ON FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP
DIRECTION MAINLY WITHIN 30 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF DUE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TAF REFLECTS THIS AT LEAST FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-FREE CONDITIONS. HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISREGARDED GFS/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT
APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO PESSIMISTIC REGARDING ITS INSISTENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUB-VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DURING THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS...AND THUS THIS FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THERE WILL BE AT-WORST ONLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UNDER THICKER PASSING BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS.
AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE MORE THAN 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY ON DIRECTION...AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS
INSISTENT ON FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP
DIRECTION MAINLY WITHIN 30 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF DUE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TAF REFLECTS THIS AT LEAST FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST WILL
DELIVER ANOTHER PUNCH OF SPRING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND
AS CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE AREA. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED TO 994MB AT 19Z
OVER SE COLORADO AND THE 19Z RAP INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
989MB BY 00Z. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING H5 UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NV.
SURFACE OBS AT KLVS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WIND ADVISORY A
COUPLE TIMES BUT SINCE ISOLD IN NATURE WILL NOT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF A
40-50KT 700-500MB JET SLIDES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NM. WILL PASS
ALONG WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS TO OVERNIGHT CREW.
ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS THERE ISNT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT. WPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF VALUES FOR 0.10 OR MORE DO SHOW VALUES AROUND 30
PCT OVER SW FACING SLOPES OF THE NW MTS WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM LIFTED
INDICES ARE NEAR -2C FOR TMRW AFTERNOON SO THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 AND 50 PCT RANGE BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. ALSO TOSSED IN DUST FOR THE NW PLATEAU. MAX TEMPS
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE WEST THEN 5 TO 15F BLW NORMAL FOR ALL
AREAS THURSDAY. IT WILL FEEL QUITE COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. AGAIN QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARM ADVECTION
THRU THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. 700MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR +12C WHICH IS NEAR THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR MID MAY. THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABV NORMAL AGAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS ALMOST COMICAL SO WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
HAVE UPGRADED ZONES 103 AND 107 TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106 AS A WATCH AND
LET THE STELLAR NIGHT CREW TAKE ONE MORE LOOK.
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY LESS WIND...THANKS TO A POTENT COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONLY MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AND BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE EASILY REACHED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND ALL EASTERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE FAR EAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. HAINES VALUES TO BE HIGH
TO MODERATE. AREAS TO THE WEST ARE MORE IN THE GREY AREA AS TO HOW
TO TREAT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MANY HOURS...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN ZONES 103 AND 107.
WITH HAINES VALUES STILL PARTLY IN THE HIGH CATEGORY IN ZONES 103
AND 10 WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THESE ZONES TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS
A WATCH. CERTAINLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT LOW TO MODERATE HAINES VALUES AND HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BRING A MIXED SIGNAL AS TO JUST HOW CRITICAL THIS AREA
WILL BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LET NIGHT CREW MAKE THE CALL ON
ZONE 106. WILL NEED TO FACTOR IN HOW INCREDIBLY DRY IT HAS BEEN
LATELY AS WELL. AS FOR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO FINALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS. IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. A FEW RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
BUT NO WETTING PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NOT MUCH WIND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AND LEVELING OFF ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE DRY
ASIDE FROM A NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHOWER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE
BULLISH WITH A TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. JUST WISHFUL THINKING AT THIS POINT.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO HEAD SLOWLY EAST. NEAR SFC WINDS
STRONGER TODAY THAN MONDAY. SW WIND GUSTS OF 28-30 KTS AT
FMN...ABQ...AEG AND SAF. SW WIND GUSTS OF 35-37 KTS OTHER TAF
SITES. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO DUST IN ANY TAF FORECAST BUT
COULD BE SOME MODEST RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY FOR LVS...TCC AND ROW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. STRONG WINDS AGAIN WED OVER
THE E...LOWER SPEEDS IN THE WEST.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 41 63 37 63 / 0 20 10 10
DULCE........................... 31 60 27 58 / 5 30 20 20
CUBA............................ 35 64 31 56 / 0 10 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 34 59 31 61 / 0 5 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 29 56 28 56 / 0 5 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 33 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 38 58 33 57 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 35 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 33 56 26 49 / 5 40 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 61 35 54 / 0 5 0 20
PECOS........................... 41 61 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 66 28 57 / 0 5 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 34 51 25 43 / 0 10 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 57 26 49 / 0 5 0 20
TAOS............................ 33 65 29 56 / 0 5 0 20
MORA............................ 40 63 32 55 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 38 69 34 62 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 42 61 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 67 36 60 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 69 42 63 / 0 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 72 44 67 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 73 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 73 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 71 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 72 42 66 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 49 74 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 66 37 60 / 0 5 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 46 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 65 34 59 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 64 35 59 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 70 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 66 40 60 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 44 68 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 41 74 36 64 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 42 72 37 64 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 51 78 44 71 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 47 71 41 66 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 53 77 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 76 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 83 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 81 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 81 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 79 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 85 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 76 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 70 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 10-12C...WITH WAA HELPING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE M50S-NEAR 70...DESPITE RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER NRN NY.
INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXISTS FRIDAY NGT
INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN CANADA AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NGT. RAINFALL
MAY BECM MODERATE AT TIMES AS WEAK FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
SETS UP...BEST SEEN AT LOW TO MID LVLS. DEPARTING 850MB JET ON
SATURDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH PSBL UPPER LVL JET TO OUR N/NW AIDING
IN POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER.
COLD FRONT PICKS UP MOMENTUM ON SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY. SLGT RIDGING
EXPECTED SUNDAY NGT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLN...WITH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
MONDAY AFTN...WHILE ECMWF HAS DRIER PATTERN WITH RIDGE PERSISTING
OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS THRU SATURDAY NGT...BUT UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS MAX TEMPS
NEAR 70 IN THE VALLEYS AND M50S-M60S ELSEWHERE...AND MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM M40S-M50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW LOW LVL CLOUDS FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT
KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE BKN LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS PUSH SEWD...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-16KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THIS
AFTN WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BCMG
LGT TO CALM ACCOMPANIED BY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL RECOVER BTWN
5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 13Z. N-NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST...ALBEIT LGT. FEW-SCT MID LVL CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR PSBL
IN SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA PRODUCING RAIN...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
PSBL. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS EWD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT STILL DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS
DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THUS HAVE
GONE WITH A DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW LOW LVL CLOUDS FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT
KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE BKN LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS PUSH SEWD...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-16KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THIS
AFTN WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BCMG
LGT TO CALM ACCOMPANIED BY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL RECOVER BTWN
5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 13Z. N-NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST...ALBEIT LGT. FEW-SCT MID LVL CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR PSBL
IN SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA PRODUCING RAIN...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
PSBL. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS EWD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT STILL DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS
DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THUS HAVE
GONE WITH A DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET HAVE
ERODED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THIS LAYER NOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 10000 FEET IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WILL BE EXITING LATER THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF UNDER 10 KNOTS.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH NEWD WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1030 AM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT STILL DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS
DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THUS HAVE
GONE WITH A DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET HAVE
ERODED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THIS LAYER NOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 10000 FEET IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WILL BE EXITING LATER THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF UNDER 10 KNOTS.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH NEWD WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM TUESDAY...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR WERE RECORDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH BEAUFORT
AND MOREHEAD CITY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. DOWN IN WILMINGTON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHED 91 DEGREES TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE 3 KM HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 03Z TO 04Z. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. GIVEN DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ANY STORMS THAT DO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA COULD BE
LOCALLY STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. DESPITE
THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS AND BNDRY
LAYER MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS UP RANGING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
THE OUTER BANKS BY DAYBREAK. FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ON
WED AS TD`S INCREASE AND SEA BREEZE WORKS ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE
COAST. OTHERWISE AFTER A MAINLY CLOUDY START, EXPECT LOTS OF SUN
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 80S AGAIN OVER SW AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO
BREAK WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WAVY STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT
NORTH WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND A GOOD
SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 655 PM TUE...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES LATE WITH BEST CHANCE OF IFR SRN TIER NEAR OAJ. MDL TIME
SECTIONS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CIGS WL LINGER WELL INTO
WED MORN WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
DRIFTS INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE/ENE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT MORE SE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS VEER E TO SE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE MARINE AREA WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
10-15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT THRU WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/BTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE SHORE VERSUS 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALL
THANKS TO LAKE ERIE.
LATEST HRRR MODEL IS JUST NOW COMING IN AND IT INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 08Z UNTIL 13Z
TO 14Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. SO THAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL NOT PROBABLY ONLY 5
TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. JET ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
HINGE ON THE LOCATIONS OF ANY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS
CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WAS SUPPOSED TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STALL
ACROSS NRN OHIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT BECOMES HARDER TO TIME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN AS THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC THROUGH MONDAY.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE OFFERING A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH EACH
OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST IS RATHER VAGUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS AND TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CIRRUS TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE TIMING OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE TOUGH...THEY WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 1 TO
4 FEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE HIGHEST WAVES SHIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTH SHORE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IF WINDS END UP BEING STRONGER OR THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO
SHIFT NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND WAVES
DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH HAS FINALLY KICKED OFF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. DID CUT BACK POPS TO THE
WEST JUST A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE...KEPT AT
LEAST A CHANCE GOING ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR
SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS
DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER
DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID
WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO
FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMER PREVIEW WILL BE AIRING ON THE START FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
WE WERE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS A BIT SLOWER ON INCREASING
POPS...AND A BIT HIGHER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CRW-CKB
CORRIDOR ON EAST ON FRIDAY. PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY FRIDAY...AS INITIAL ENERGY WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH LIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
500 MB DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PASS BY OUR VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HIGHEST POPS ARE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE FRONT NEVER
CLEARS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF BUILDS
BACK RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR DAY 7/MONDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST
BY MOTHERS DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT NEVER CLEARS...STILL VULNERABLE
TO ANY WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. I TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
SLIGHTER WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEKN AND KCKB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z...FOR A RETURN
OF VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS...AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY FORM IN VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...MAINLY 09-13Z TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/06/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES LIKE
KOKC/KOUN/KLAW/KSPS. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP... VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST CONCERN IS AGAIN FIRE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS 24
HOURS AGO. UNFORTUNATELY... THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN MANY AREAS
AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MIX OUT QUICKLY IN THE WEST. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE MOISTURE MIX OUT. NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A CAP ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THAT WOULD
PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OUT THAT WE WILL SEE TO THE WEST. RAP AND
HRRR SUGGEST MIXING OUT FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING MAY PROVIDE
SOME ANSWERS. IF THIS ISN`T ENOUGH... MANY MODELS /NAM.. ECMWF..
RAP/ SHOW QPF SIGNALS BY 00Z. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BUT MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE EXPECTED
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FORECAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE ASSOCIATED RISK
OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING IN SOME AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT TO THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW. AGAIN THERE IS A
QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT. HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW AGAIN IN THE WEST WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL NEARLY CERTAINTY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW EVENING AND EXPANDING OVERNIGHT.
AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT HOW THE ATMOSPHERE AND/OR CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLY THURSDAY CONVECTION. EVEN AFTER THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PLAINS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO A ZONAL PATTERN AND WE KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. .26.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 67 88 66 / 10 0 20 40
HOBART OK 100 65 94 62 / 10 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 69 93 67 / 10 10 30 40
GAGE OK 99 60 95 60 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 98 69 90 68 / 10 0 20 40
DURANT OK 88 66 84 69 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>029-
033>039-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
30/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST CONCERN IS AGAIN FIRE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS 24
HOURS AGO. UNFORTUNATELY... THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN MANY AREAS
AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MIX OUT QUICKLY IN THE WEST. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE MOISTURE MIX OUT. NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A CAP ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THAT WOULD
PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OUT THAT WE WILL SEE TO THE WEST. RAP AND
HRRR SUGGEST MIXING OUT FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING MAY PROVIDE
SOME ANSWERS. IF THIS ISN`T ENOUGH... MANY MODELS /NAM.. ECMWF..
RAP/ SHOW QPF SIGNALS BY 00Z. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BUT MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE EXPECTED
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FORECAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE ASSOCIATED RISK
OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING IN SOME AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT TO THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW. AGAIN THERE IS A
QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT. HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW AGAIN IN THE WEST WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL NEARLY CERTAINTY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW EVENING AND EXPANDING OVERNIGHT.
AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT HOW THE ATMOSPHERE AND/OR CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLY THURSDAY CONVECTION. EVEN AFTER THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PLAINS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO A ZONAL PATTERN AND WE KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. .26.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 67 88 66 / 10 0 20 40
HOBART OK 100 65 94 62 / 10 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 69 93 67 / 10 10 30 40
GAGE OK 99 60 95 60 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 98 69 90 68 / 10 0 20 40
DURANT OK 88 66 84 69 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>029-033>039-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
907 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT UP SOME LATE EVENING INTO LATE
NIGHT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO THE SW EXTENDING FURTHER E...AND THE
LOW/FRONTAL ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW IN BETWEEN AS IN
YKN/SUX/FSD AREA WITH EXTENT OF ANY LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY
UNCERTAIN...FEEL THE LATE INCREASE DEPICTED BY THE HRRR IS LIKELY
OVERDONE AT LEAST A LITTLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EDGE OF A STRONG
CAP LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION TRENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME. THE RAP13 HAS HANDLED CONVECTIVE TRENDS FAIRLY WELL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HRRR LESS SO...AND THE RAP AS WELL AS A
COUPLE HI RES MODELS INDICATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA GREAT LAKES/PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IF THE
CAP CAN BE BROKEN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...PRESENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS WOULD INDICATE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BE
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL FRONT ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THEN CURVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...SHORTER TERM MODELS ALSO HINTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...POSSIBLY WORKING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH COOL UPPER 40S IN OUR
FAR WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WHILE DROPPING ONLY
INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH DIFFERING ON
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM/GEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING OUR EAST FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THROUGH THE GFS/ECMWF OFFER A WETTER
SOLUTION. IN ANY EVENT...BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE COOLER/DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
THERE AGAIN WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH PLACES IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...WHILE BACK TO THE WEST HIGHS WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER...IT WILL PROBABLY
COME DOWN TO TIMING...AS THE INSTABILITY WANES PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD...THOUGH IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN OUR FAR EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT MAXIMUM HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WAVE EXITS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY LEAVING
RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES QUICKLY...
AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT WHERE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN THE
STABLE AIR. LOOKING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST IA IS
MORE IN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE/DRY SLOT AREA SO NOT REAL KEEN ON
PRECIP CHANCES IN THAT LOCATION AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT RATHER BREEZY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
BUT A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.
IF WE MIX A BIT HIGHER...WE MAY NEED TO TACK ON A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MORE TO THESE READINGS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG SURGE OF THETAE ADVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY HARMLESS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE
STARVED BELOW ABOUT 600MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW THE CRUX OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES PER THE UPPER QG FORCING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT...SO 50 POPS
WERE PLACED EAST OF I 29. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS RATHER
ABUNDANT AT THIS TIME...SO JUST OPTED TO GO PURE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. FOR
HIGHS...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND WELL MIXED DAY AND
WITH A WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 60S IN
HURON TO MID 70S AT SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE.
IN THE EXTENDED...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLUTION WHICH IS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. BUT ADMITTEDLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL BECAUSE
EACH MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTPUTS.
MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
MENTION OF SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND TIMING IS A LITTLE
TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 LATE
TONIGHT...THEN A GOOD CHANCE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
755 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EDGE OF A STRONG
CAP LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION TRENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME. THE RAP13 HAS HANDLED CONVECTIVE TRENDS FAIRLY WELL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HRRR LESS SO...AND THE RAP AS WELL AS A
COUPLE HI RES MODELS INDICATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA GREAT LAKES/PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IF THE
CAP CAN BE BROKEN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...PRESENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS WOULD INDICATE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BE
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL FRONT ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THEN CURVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...SHORTER TERM MODELS ALSO HINTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...POSSIBLY WORKING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH COOL UPPER 40S IN OUR
FAR WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WHILE DROPPING ONLY
INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH DIFFERING ON
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM/GEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING OUR EAST FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THROUGH THE GFS/ECMWF OFFER A WETTER
SOLUTION. IN ANY EVENT...BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE COOLER/DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
THERE AGAIN WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH PLACES IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...WHILE BACK TO THE WEST HIGHS WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER...IT WILL PROBABLY
COME DOWN TO TIMING...AS THE INSTABILITY WANES PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD...THOUGH IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN OUR FAR EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT MAXIMUM HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WAVE EXITS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY LEAVING
RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES QUICKLY...
AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT WHERE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN THE
STABLE AIR. LOOKING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST IA IS
MORE IN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE/DRY SLOT AREA SO NOT REAL KEEN ON
PRECIP CHANCES IN THAT LOCATION AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT RATHER BREEZY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
BUT A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.
IF WE MIX A BIT HIGHER...WE MAY NEED TO TACK ON A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MORE TO THESE READINGS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG SURGE OF THETAE ADVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY HARMLESS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE
STARVED BELOW ABOUT 600MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW THE CRUX OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES PER THE UPPER QG FORCING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT...SO 50 POPS
WERE PLACED EAST OF I 29. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS RATHER
ABUNDANT AT THIS TIME...SO JUST OPTED TO GO PURE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. FOR
HIGHS...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND WELL MIXED DAY AND
WITH A WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 60S IN
HURON TO MID 70S AT SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE.
IN THE EXTENDED...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLUTION WHICH IS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. BUT ADMITTEDLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL BECAUSE
EACH MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTPUTS.
MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
MENTION OF SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND TIMING IS A LITTLE
TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 LATE
TONIGHT...THEN A GOOD CHANCE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED. CURRENTLY THERE IS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA IN THE CRP AND EWX CWAS...AND THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CWA AROUND 08Z OR 3AM. TOMORROW
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE WET AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL SATURATION...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLIES MAINTAINING A
NEAR 10 KT MAGNITUDE...WILL ALLOW MANY HUBS TO FALL INTO MVFR
CEILING CATS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY AM HOURS. A POSSIBILITY
THAT MVFR OFFSHORE FOG (REPORTED AT RIGS) WILL ADVECT TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
WESTERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGHING WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING/SPEED
OF THIS DISTURBANCE`S PASSAGE...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY IMPULSE
ON ITS HEELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...HAS PLACED VICINITY CONVECTION
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PACKAGE. 31/13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AS FCSTS ARE WONT TO DO THIS TIME OF YEAR...CHANGES IN STORE WITH
THE UPCOMING FCST PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT RUNS STARTED TREND OF HIGHER
POPS TOMORROW (VS FRI) WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE
FROM THE SW. RAIN CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER S/WV
EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM JET. AIRMASS ON THURS WILL BE A LITTLE
BIT DRIER/MORE CAPPED BUT THE DISTURBANCE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
ONE FOR FRI. HOWEVER UPPER DYNAMICS ON FRI APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE/
AIRMASS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. HAVE TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS FOR THESE
TIME FRAMES ACCORDINGLY. WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND ONSHORE WINDS PER-
SIST.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING A CHANGE WITH THE TIMING WITH
THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. PROGGED FROPA NOW MORE IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUES MORNING RANGE. 41
MARINE...
SCEC CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND HAVE EXTENDED IT
TO 12Z. CLOUD DECK MOVING NORTHWEST AND ERODING BUT MAY BE THE
LEADING EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP FOR THE UTCW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
45
BUOY STATUS: BUOY 42035 HAS STOPPED REPORTING. 42019 IS STILL OUT OF
SERVICE SO NOT GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEARBY VERIFIABLE SEA
HEIGHTS (THOUGH THERE`S SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WIND DATA COVERAGE VIA OIL
RIGS). FLOWER GARDEN TABS BUOYS AND 42020 WILL BE THE CLOSEST SITES
REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NDBC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED
AND HOPE TO HAVE A SERVICE CALL FOR AT LEAST ONE OF THEM IN A COUPLE
MONTHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 84 73 84 68 / 20 60 30 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 73 84 69 / 20 60 40 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 79 74 80 72 / 20 60 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION/MARINE...31/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR CEILING MIXTURE EXPECTED
AFTERWARD. ISOLD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THURSDAY. SFC MODERATE/BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WL
DECREASE DRG THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS
ANTICIPATED AT ALI/VCT WITHIN THE 06-14Z THURSDAY PERIOD. EXPECT
SFC WIND TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MAINLY
EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH ...COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REGARDING POPS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC HAS GENERATED
WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT RAIN HAVE REACHED THE GROUND IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT A
DRY 900-650MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY VIRGA THUS FAR. MODELS
VARY WIDELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT...
AND THE POORLY SAMPLED PACIFIC PLUME OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM ACROSS MEXICO ARE NOT HELPING. GENERALLY
MODELS DO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LAYER MOISTENING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY.
PWATS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY ARE AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.
GFS AND HRRR INDICATING ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
ALONG WITH 4KM TEXAS TECH WRF. ECMWF EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...NAM12 WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH QPF AND
HI RES NMM/ARW KEYING IN ON AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS UPSTREAM IN MEXICO HAVE SIDED TOWARDS LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT...
WITH THE FEELING THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTENING OF THE DRY LAYER OUT WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AGAIN MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS MOVING WEST INTO CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY AREAS OF THE CWA. GOOD CHANCES FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND AREAS OF THE
COASTAL BEND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS CAP ERODES AND MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. BETTER JET
DYNAMICS MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND IF ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. OVERALL THROUGH...CONFIDENCE IN THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS LOW GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND DIFFICULT TO FIND A CLEAR
MODEL WINNER SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PACKAGE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN
TYPICAL. GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...THEN TAPERING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
AFTER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...A STRONGER WAVE LOOKS
TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. GFS IS MORE THAN 12 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON PROJECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE FAITH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AS USUAL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO FORECAST PACKAGE IS SOMEWHAT WARMER
AND CLOUDIER THAN WHAT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. BY
WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENT HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH DRIER
OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 86 73 87 73 / 20 50 30 40 30
VICTORIA 73 84 73 86 70 / 20 50 30 40 30
LAREDO 77 94 75 97 76 / 40 30 20 30 20
ALICE 74 89 73 90 72 / 30 50 30 40 30
ROCKPORT 74 80 73 86 73 / 20 30 30 40 30
COTULLA 74 92 72 93 71 / 40 50 20 30 20
KINGSVILLE 74 88 74 89 73 / 20 50 30 30 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 82 74 84 74 / 20 40 30 30 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Expect hot and dry weather this afternoon and a chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A dryline was located along a
Fredrick, OK to Abilene to Sonora line at 20Z. Latest SPC
mesoanaylsis indicates weak instability(MLCAPES 500 to 1000 J/KG)
ahead of the dryline over the eastern part of our area. The
remaining convective inhibition or low level inversion may be
erased for isolated storms to develop mainly after 22Z across the
northern Heartland and eastern Big Country. the HRRR convective
allowing model has been showing isolated storms developing the
past several hourly runs. High LCLs and an inverted-v sounding
profiles favor strong gusty winds and hail with the stronger
storms. Also, storms will produce dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Any storms that do develop will exit the area or
quickly dissipate by 02Z. The rest of tonight will see low level
southerly flow and low level moisture returning. The dryline will
retreat to just west of our area by 12Z Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be in the 60s to around 70.
For Wednesday, the morning looks quiet with low clouds across
much of the area. Low clouds will break up across much of the area
by early afternoon. Aloft, a strong upper level trough will be
located over the southern Rockies. A dryline will move slowly east
to along a Haskell to San Angelo line by late in the afternoon.
Low level convergence along the dryline and increasing large scale
ascent from approaching trough will cause isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop across much of West Central Texas mainly
after 20Z. The combination of some instability(MLCAPES of 1500 to
2000 J/KG) and 0-6KM bulk shear of 45 to 50 knots, will result in
some storms being severe. The main threats will be large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Highs will
be 90 to 95.
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
By Wednesday night, the large upper level trough currently near
Las Vegas will be moving east through the desert southwest toward
west Texas. This feature will bring synoptic scale upward motion
with it into west and west central Texas from Wednesday evening
into Thursday.
Have generally bumped PoPs up again with this forecast, as we get
closer to the event, and become more confident in thunderstorms
taking place. In addition, have added the mention of severe
thunderstorms to the forecast for Wednesday evening, carrying over
the mention from the afternoon. With 0-6km bulk shear values of
40-55 knots, and SFC and mixed layer CAPE values ranging from near
1000 J/kg to as high as 1500 J/kg, there will be enough
instability, and storm organization carried over into the evening
hours for the threat of severe weather to be possible. As with the
previous period, the main concerns will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the event evolves overnight, the instability will wane,
and thus have the mention of severe weather in the forecast only
through 06Z. In addition to the severe weather possibility, some
of the thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, and localized
flooding will be possible, mainly in urban areas.
On Thursday, we will likely continue to see a broken line of
showers with embedded thunderstorms for the eastern half of the
area, especially during the morning hours as steering flow remain
southwest, making the exit of precipitation a little slow.
Severe weather concern will be limited with this mainly morning
activity.
One more weak shortwave will move through the area Friday
afternoon and evening, possibly providing one more shot at
precipitation for southeastern areas Friday afternoon and night.
Expect temperatures to continue to be above normal through the
forecast period. Thursday and Friday will be the cooler days
averaging mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will
quickly warm back into the mid 90s for the weekend.
Have not made any significant changes beyond the end of this week
as there is still a lot of uncertainty associated with the
forecast for early next week. The GFS is much more progressive and
weaker with an upper level system, sending a cold front into the
area Sunday night whereas the ECMWF is slower and stronger, and
waits until Monday evening to send a cold front into the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening, generally west of a Haskell to Bronte line. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM across the western Big
Country and Northern Concho Valley due to RH values of 7 to 12
percent and southwest winds around 20 mph. Also, ERC values are at
record levels across this area. An increase in low level moisture
late tonight should result in RH values recovering to 60 to 80
percent across much of West Central Texas. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon west of a Haskell to
Ozona line due to RH values of 15 to 25 percent and wind speeds of
15 mph. Thunderstorms will bring potential wetting rains across
mainly northern and eastern areas Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 94 67 87 61 / 5 30 50 30 10
San Angelo 68 94 68 91 57 / 5 20 40 20 10
Junction 64 91 70 87 66 / 10 20 50 40 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...Sterling...
Taylor.
&&
$$
21/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CIGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
A TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WEATHER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 13-23 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A
STRONG LLJ TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR
40 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL
RETURN TO KACT AROUND 06Z/1 AM CDT AND THE METROPLEX AROUND 08Z/3
AM CDT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS A HIGHLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. HOWEVER...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 90 KNOT JET
NOSING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS SAME REGION WILL SEE THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON SO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY HIGH RES MODEL THAT REALLY KEYS ON
THIS AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE. THE INVERTED V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE
WEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CAP
SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BREEZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.
THE CURRRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW SO WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A STRONG THERMAL 850MB RIDGE TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DRIVE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK WEST TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES EAST. RICHER
SURFACE DEW PTS 55 TO 60 ARE NOW SURGING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
AND EXPECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA...BUT NOT OVERLY DRY. NEVERTHELESS...THE HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE OUT OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN
THE SURFACE DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED...VERY HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH VER GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 10 KFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY SUNSET AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A STRONG LLJ EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE PROGRESSIVELY EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH RICHER MOISTURE POOLING
JUST EAST OF THAT FEATURE. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 95-100
DEGREES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
INCREASING MOISTURE HELPS HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY AND JUXTAPOSE OVER THE DEEPENING SURFACE
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF THE CWA FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAX HEATING. IN ADDITION...
LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM WILL COINCIDE WITH WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
LOWER STORM BASES WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING
30-40 KTS WITH NEAR SURFACE SHEAR 20-25 KTS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE MAIN THREATS TO REMAIN VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATING STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT
THE THREAT IS NOT A WIDESPREAD ONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED
CHANCES INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR W/NW COUNTIES
BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND SUNSET AND WENT AHEAD AN INSERTED SEVERE
INTO THE FORECAST WORDING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS FALLS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION
LIFTING/MOISTENING AND WEAKENING FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORM OR EVEN STORM CLUSTERS...AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE DRYLINE/SURFACE
TROUGH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATER MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ALL THE WHILE...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOWER AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES WILL
SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA...THUS THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM 0.50-1 INCH WEST...TO BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES EAST WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...THUS SOME RUN
OFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THE
SYSTEM AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EXPECTED. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES
ON SYSTEM SPEED AND TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW SLOWER AND
WETTER...WHILE THE ECWMF...WRF AND NAM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER AND NOT AS HEAVY WITH SOME
OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THEN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AND FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FAST LOWERING
TRENDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT
APPEARS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH MORE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING OVERHEAD...HAVE LEFT LOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. A LULL WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...BUT DRY. HAVE LEFT LOW CONFIDENCE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE NORTH
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...SO DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO RAIN EVERY DAY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK AND THIS COMING
WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 67 88 70 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 90 66 87 69 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
PARIS, TX 85 62 83 67 80 / 0 5 5 20 70
DENTON, TX 90 67 87 70 82 / 0 5 10 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 87 64 86 71 81 / 0 5 5 20 70
DALLAS, TX 91 68 88 71 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 87 65 86 70 82 / 0 5 5 20 70
CORSICANA, TX 88 65 87 71 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
TEMPLE, TX 88 65 87 69 85 / 0 5 5 20 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 65 92 68 86 / 5 5 20 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS A HIGHLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. HOWEVER...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 90 KNOT JET
NOSING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS SAME REGION WILL SEE THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON SO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY HIGH RES MODEL THAT REALLY KEYS ON
THIS AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE. THE INVERTED V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE
WEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CAP
SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BREEZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.
THE CURRRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW SO WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
VAD WIND PROFILES FROM AREA RADARS INDICATE SSW WINDS OF 50+ KT
AT 020-030...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS SURGING NORTH
IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY REACHED KACT
AND APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEX
FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER 12Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z IN
THE METROPLEX DUE TO EXPECTED TAPERING OF THE STRATUS DECK THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. OCCASIONAL CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE A REPEAT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE A TAD
EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A STRONG THERMAL 850MB RIDGE TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DRIVE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK WEST TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES EAST. RICHER
SURFACE DEW PTS 55 TO 60 ARE NOW SURGING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
AND EXPECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA...BUT NOT OVERLY DRY. NEVERTHELESS...THE HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE OUT OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN
THE SURFACE DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED...VERY HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH VER GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 10 KFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY SUNSET AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A STRONG LLJ EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE PROGRESSIVELY EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH RICHER MOISTURE POOLING
JUST EAST OF THAT FEATURE. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 95-100
DEGREES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
INCREASING MOISTURE HELPS HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY AND JUXTAPOSE OVER THE DEEPENING SURFACE
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF THE CWA FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAX HEATING. IN ADDITION...
LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM WILL COINCIDE WITH WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
LOWER STORM BASES WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING
30-40 KTS WITH NEAR SURFACE SHEAR 20-25 KTS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE MAIN THREATS TO REMAIN VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATING STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT
THE THREAT IS NOT A WIDESPREAD ONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED
CHANCES INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR W/NW COUNTIES
BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND SUNSET AND WENT AHEAD AN INSERTED SEVERE
INTO THE FORECAST WORDING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS FALLS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION
LIFTING/MOISTENING AND WEAKENING FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORM OR EVEN STORM CLUSTERS...AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE DRYLINE/SURFACE
TROUGH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATER MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ALL THE WHILE...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOWER AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES WILL
SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA...THUS THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM 0.50-1 INCH WEST...TO BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES EAST WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...THUS SOME RUN
OFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THE
SYSTEM AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EXPECTED. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES
ON SYSTEM SPEED AND TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW SLOWER AND
WETTER...WHILE THE ECWMF...WRF AND NAM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER AND NOT AS HEAVY WITH SOME
OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THEN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AND FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FAST LOWERING
TRENDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT
APPEARS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH MORE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING OVERHEAD...HAVE LEFT LOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. A LULL WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...BUT DRY. HAVE LEFT LOW CONFIDENCE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE NORTH
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...SO DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO RAIN EVERY DAY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK AND THIS COMING
WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 67 88 70 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 90 66 87 69 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
PARIS, TX 85 62 83 67 80 / 0 5 5 20 70
DENTON, TX 90 67 87 70 82 / 0 5 10 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 87 64 86 71 81 / 0 5 5 20 70
DALLAS, TX 91 68 88 71 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 87 65 86 70 82 / 0 5 5 20 70
CORSICANA, TX 88 65 87 71 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
TEMPLE, TX 88 65 87 69 85 / 0 5 5 20 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 65 92 68 86 / 5 5 20 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 853 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE A MID
LEVEL CAP THAT HAS AGAIN INHIBITED ANY CONVECTION. THE SHALLOW
WEDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG ON A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE THE FRONT HEADS BACK NE OF THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST BEFORE A LIGHT WEST/SW TRAJECTORY
DEVELOPS LATE AND HELPS SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW DECK. HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN RETURNING OVER THE SE PER MSAS LIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE WINDS DO GO LIGHT SO
KEPT MENTION MAINLY EAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS. OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S RIDGES EXCEPT A FEW 40S IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED DISSIPATING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR REGION MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN VA TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH CU FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CAP IS STILL HOLDING DESPITE THE SOLAR HEATING...BUT IT IS
WEAKENING. HRRR GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN BUT KEPT MOST OF THE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM AND
GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS..ALLOWED FOR JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
RIDGES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP IN THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S
TO UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
STRONG LAYER OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HINDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY REFER TO CLIMATE
SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THU NIGHT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL BE BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THINK ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW WHICH BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS EDGE CLOSER
AND BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WRN CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A SVR THREAT GIVEN TIMING AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECWMF ENSEMBLES OVERALL PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE
UPPER PATTERN GOES FROM A SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH 5H TROUGH DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MIDWEEK. MAIN FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH LEE TROUGH...UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
SUNDAY. WILL SEE DIURNAL TYPE CYCLE FOR POPS INTO MONDAY WITH SFC
HIGH SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER NOVA/NORTHERN WV. HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AS
WELL.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD TUE-WED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CLOSE IN WITH BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING UNDER PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS SCTD
CU FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. RESIDUAL WEDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP ESPCLY AROUND KLYH
OVERNIGHT. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL WHERE
MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT KLWB/KLYH AND KBCB. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF LATER TONIGHT WITH OVERALL VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE
WEDGE STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS AND WINDS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA. RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO THE WEST WITH MAINLY VFR
EXCLUDING PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR IN A LATE DAY SHRA ESPCLY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED DISSIPATING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR REGION MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN VA TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH CU FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CAP IS STILL HOLDING DESPITE THE SOLAR HEATING...BUT IT IS
WEAKENING. HRRR GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN BUT KEPT MOST OF THE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM AND
GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS..ALLOWED FOR JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
RIDGES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP IN THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S
TO UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
STRONG LAYER OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HINDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY REFER TO CLIMATE
SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THU NIGHT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL BE BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THINK ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW WHICH BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS EDGE CLOSER
AND BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WRN CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A SVR THREAT GIVEN TIMING AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECWMF ENSEMBLES OVERALL PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE
UPPER PATTERN GOES FROM A SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH 5H TROUGH DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MIDWEEK. MAIN FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH LEE TROUGH...UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
SUNDAY. WILL SEE DIURNAL TYPE CYCLE FOR POPS INTO MONDAY WITH SFC
HIGH SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER NOVA/NORTHERN WV. HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AS
WELL.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD TUE-WED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CLOSE IN WITH BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING UNDER PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS SCTD
CU FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. RESIDUAL WEDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP ESPCLY AROUND KLYH
OVERNIGHT. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL WHERE
MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT KLWB/KLYH AND KBCB. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF LATER TONIGHT WITH OVERALL VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE
WEDGE STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS AND WINDS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA. RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO THE WEST WITH MAINLY VFR
EXCLUDING PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR IN A LATE DAY SHRA ESPCLY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
SOLAR HEATING...STRONG CAP THIS AFTERNOON HINDERING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE HEALTHY CAP. LIKE YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION
OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FOR VIRGINIA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND GOOD LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RNK
WRFARW DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA AND DROP SOUTHEAST. HRRR SHOWED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WAA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT CAP
MAY HOLD AND LIMITED CONVECTION. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE H8 WARN FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. GOOD LAPSE RATE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CAP IS EVEN STRONGER...ELECTED TO KEEP
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VARY FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUBJECT FORECAST AREA TO A
SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE 582 TO 588 DECAMETER
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
CANADA TO FLORIDA. THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
THEN BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY AS A MID CONUS TROF MOVES EAST.
850 MB TEMPS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED NEAR 18 DEG C. THIS ALONE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. AN ADDED BOOST WILL OCCUR
FROM ADIABATIC WARMING...WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AS THE AIR PASSES OVER AND DOWN THE MTNS. THE NET EFFECT
WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL TEST THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
FRIDAY AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID CONUS TROUGH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY WILL SQUELCH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CUMULUS...BUT THINK ANY THREAT OF
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE UNLESS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN MID CONUS FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE MODELS
REMOTELY LOOK SIMILAR...THEN THEY DIVERGE RESULTING IN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE AND
AND FAVORS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK VS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.
FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS BRING SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THIS RESULTS IN LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS THEN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS SATURDAYS FRONT WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
GETTING CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER
SOLUTION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL WE MIX OUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY MID
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM SURGE
PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT WILL
ALSO ADD KLWB. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE CAP KEPT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIKE
YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FOR VIRGINIA.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
HEALTHY LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED LESS COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL AROUND 00Z
BEFORE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TOWARDS SATELLITE IMAGES...INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS FEATURE ARRIVES IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST IN STABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND AREA IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK CAP.
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO SOUTH OF
MARTINSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
TODAY THEN WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR AND WEDGE WILL HOLD
IN THE FAR EAST EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
LARGE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE COOLER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FEW CAVEATS. MAX T ON
WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HIGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DELMARVA SUCH THAT SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
PERSISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MORE SW/WSW COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE WEST VA...CREATES SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND PERHAPS ROANOKE VALLEY...THUS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES MAY KEEP MAX T COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THESE
PARTS...WHEREAS THE EXTREME SW VA COUNTIES AND NEAR BLF SHOULD BE
IMMUNE AND PERHAPS GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE WEDGE SEEMS
TO BE GONE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EASILY THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH 90F ATTAINABLE IN THE CITIES. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WITH WINDS BACKING A TAD AS A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE FROM THE ARKLATEX...STORMS LOOK MOST
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS A COMMON
DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS IN THIS REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKEYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT WILL
ALSO ADD KLWB. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1015 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE CAP KEPT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIKE
YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FOR VIRGINIA.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
HEALTHY LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED LESS COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL AROUND 00Z
BEFORE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TOWARDS SATELLITE IMAGES...INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS FEATURE ARRIVES IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST IN STABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND AREA IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK CAP.
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO SOUTH OF
MARTINSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
TODAY THEN WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR AND WEDGE WILL HOLD
IN THE FAR EAST EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
LARGE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE COOLER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FEW CAVEATS. MAX T ON
WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HIGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DELMARVA SUCH THAT SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
PERSISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MORE SW/WSW COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE WEST VA...CREATES SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND PERHAPS ROANOKE VALLEY...THUS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES MAY KEEP MAX T COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THESE
PARTS...WHEREAS THE EXTREME SW VA COUNTIES AND NEAR BLF SHOULD BE
IMMUNE AND PERHAPS GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE WEDGE SEEMS
TO BE GONE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EASILY THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH 90F ATTAINABLE IN THE CITIES. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WITH WINDS BACKING A TAD AS A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE FROM THE ARKLATEX...STORMS LOOK MOST
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS A COMMON
DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS IN THIS REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKEYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WAS JUST EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH AT
11Z/7AM. SHALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG AT KBCB AND KLWB IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS FEATURE ARRIVES IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST IN STABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND AREA IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK CAP.
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO SOUTH OF
MARTINSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
TODAY THEN WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR AND WEDGE WILL HOLD
IN THE FAR EAST EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
LARGE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE COOLER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FEW CAVEATS. MAX T ON
WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HIGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DELMARVA SUCH THAT SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
PERSISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MORE SW/WSW COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE WEST VA...CREATES SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND PERHAPS ROANOKE VALLEY...THUS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES MAY KEEP MAX T COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THESE
PARTS...WHEREAS THE EXTREME SW VA COUNTIES AND NEAR BLF SHOULD BE
IMMUNE AND PERHAPS GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE WEDGE SEEMS
TO BE GONE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EASILY THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH 90F ATTAINABLE IN THE CITIES. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WITH WINDS BACKING A TAD AS A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE FROM THE ARKLATEX...STORMS LOOK MOST
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS A COMMON
DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS IN THIS REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKEYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WAS JUST EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH AT
11Z/7AM. SHALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG AT KBCB AND KLWB IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE SEEN TO THE NORTH WHERE THE FRONT ALOFT CONTINUES
TO RESIDE. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE THAT PASSED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON ANY ADDED SHRA THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PASSING MID DECK.
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY NOW ACROSS THE FAR
SW WHERE THERE IS LITTLE FOCUS WHILE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE WITH THE CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TENDS TO SAG THIS BAND SOUTH TOWARD THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY I-64
AND POINTS NORTH. ELSW TRENDING DRIER AND MAINLY PC AS APPEARS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WONT BE ENOUGH TO POP ADDED SHRA
THROUGH THE CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. QUITE A
RANGE IN TEMPS FROM UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO 70S SOUTH/WEST SHOULD
EVEN OUT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER SW
PER EASTERLY FLOW SO LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES ESPCLY HIGHWAY 460
NORTH.
UPDATE AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION...UPDATED TO
LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT
FOLLOWING THE PASSING SPEED MAX ATTM. DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
TO STAY NORTH WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT SO MAINLY HOLDING
ONTO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING VERY LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT BASICALLY LEFT A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ZONE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL FURTHER ADDRESS
THE OVERNIGHT POPS WITH THE NEXT LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE IN THE FRONTAL POSITION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...THERE REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SWODY1 SEE TEXT MENTION. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND HELP WITH DAMAGING WINDS THREAT.
THE LOCAL RNK WRFARW AND HRRR CAPTURE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 LOOKED OVERDONE WITH COVERAGE IN
NEW RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME THEN SHIFT FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOKED SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LESS COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE CAP IS THE STRONGEST. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
NAM AND ECMWF HAVE DECREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS PLACES MORE ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION. PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE
MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED CELLS IN
THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US TUESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCING THE WEATHER THRU WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO CARRY
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
TUESDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
TRACK A VORT TIED TO DYING MCS ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...SO UPPED POPS TO
30ISH THERE...LINGERING THRU WED MORNING. THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER PLUS WE START TO SEE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF US TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDINESS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE SOUTH. ENOUGH OF A
CAP WITH MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY TRICKY GIVEN DYING MCS IN THE MORNING AND LINGERING
CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND LIMITED WEDGE WITH
HIGH TO THE EAST. WENT TOWARD COOLER ECWMF MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS
STAYING OVER THE SW CWA WITH BLF/JFZ REACHING 80...WHILE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OCCUR FROM THE NRV AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH AND EAST.
SHOULD BE DRY WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ON TRACK TO REACH THE 80S OVER A
GOOD DEAL OF THE REGION...MAYBE APPROACH/REACH 90 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT AND NW NC PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WAS EXPANDING WEST...WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD JUST REACHING KDAN AND KLYH AT 05Z/1AM.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO KROA AND KBCB BETWEEN 09Z/5AM AND
11Z/6AM. MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE CEILING HEIGHTS.
KLWB AND KBCB WERE SHOWING A SMALL TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD AT
05Z. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER THIS SUGGESTS FOG WILL DEVELOP
BEFORE 4AM. LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE AT
KLWB. LIFR VISIBILITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT SO WONT INCLUDE. FINALLY
PUSHED ALL SITES TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AN IMPRESSIVE SFC WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM IA EWD INTO N IL
EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE AN 850 MB WARM FRONT SHIFTED INTO
C WI. DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF GRB CWA...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ AIMED INTO NC/C
WI AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM). THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARED TO BE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
ROUGHLY 150-300 J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...ACCORDING TO
OUR LOCAL MESOANALYSIS PAGE. SCT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WAS
ONGOING OVER EASTERN MN AND WSTRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE CAP
WAS WEAKER AND STRONG LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING.
MADE AN ATTEMPT TO WORK SOME GENERAL IDEAS INTO THE POP/WX GRIDS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL DATA TRENDS. HAVE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE H8 WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE FOCUSED (UNTIL THE
LLJ WEAKENS AROUND 07Z-08Z)...AND THE CAP MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. THE
MN CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS POISED TO SHIFT THROUGH MAINLY OUR NW
COUNTIES. ISOLD SVR HAIL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HGTS OF 8.5-10K FT.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL
GENERATE AN MCV LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH NC WI
(MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM AUW-IMT) DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD. HAVE
WORKED SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTENTION SHOULD THEN FOCUS ON THE SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN CENTRAL WI THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO CENTRAL WI LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...A SHORTWAVE TURNED MCV IS
EXITING THE STATE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WAKE LOW WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BEHIND THIS MCV...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP FROM WAUSAU TO MANITOWOC IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN 850MB WARM FRONT. THINK THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH. TOUGH TO PICK OUT ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS TO KEY ON FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.
WITH BROAD WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AN
850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THOUGH A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE MAY STILL BE ONGOING BEHIND THE MCV THAT IS EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CURRENTLY...ASCENT OVER THIS WARM FRONT ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...TIMING OF RE-DEVELOPMENT IS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON...SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS EVENING...AND INCREASED
THEM TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8 C/KM RANGE...ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1100 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS TO A LESSER
EXTENT.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. HOW QUICKLY THAT WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
IS A BIG QUESTION MARK AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL LIKELY BE
IMPEDED BY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...HAVE A TOUGH TIME SEEING THIS WARM
FRONT REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 00Z FRI. THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THIS WARM FRONT ONLY REACHING THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR BY THIS
TIME SO THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY POPS OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND A CHANCE
EVERYWHERE ELSE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES. CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE FOX VALLEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 60S...ML CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
HAVE FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC/MOISTURE ADVECTION. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL STILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE TO THE WEST...SO SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES MAY GET DELAYED INTO THE EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LOW AMPLITUDE/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO A WEST COAST UPR RDG/E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WL BE THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF
A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TO BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT TO NE WI WHICH TRANSLATES
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...BUT ALSO A WET PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF PCPN.
SFC LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY TRACK NE ACROSS MN THU NGT WHILE THE CDFNT
PUSHES INTO WRN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF WL CONT TO GET PUMPED INTO WI
WITH INDIVIDUAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ENUF SHEAR IS EVIDENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THUS A POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS THU NGT. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
HAVE SUMMER FEEL TO THEM WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S THRU
THE NGT. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S
AROUND DOOR COUNTY TO THE LWR 60S ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU CNTRL WI FRI MORNING/ERN WI EARLY TO MID FRI
AFTERNOON AND WL NEED TO CARRY POPS UNTIL THIS FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. EVEN BEHIND THE FNT...CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHWR
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVE THRU WI.
HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI TO BE OVER ERN WI PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 60S.
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO FRI NGT...
BUT MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENUF TO NE WI TO WARRANT A SMALL POP OVER
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RDG
OF HI PRES WL BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATER FRI NGT AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S NORTH TO THE LWR TO MID
40S SOUTH. THIS SFC RDG QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS WI ON SAT WITH CLOUDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT ANY PCPN OUT OF THE FCST AREA
FOR NOW AND KEPT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE (COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPR TROF SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. SW FLOW ALOFT WL
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH CHC POPS
NECESSARY FROM SAT NGT THRU MON NGT. THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT MON
NGT FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT ON TUE COULD BRING A BREAK IN THE PCPN
BEFORE THE UPR TROF ARRIVES AND BRINGS CHC POPS BACK INTO THE
FCST. TEMPS WL COOL A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WI TONIGHT...THEN STALL
OUT IN THE VCNTY OF CENTRAL WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLD/SCT
TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THE
BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN WI BETWEEN 06Z-09Z/THU.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY NC WI DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS
WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH STORMS
THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON THURSDAY...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE MTW TAF SITE.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z-08Z/THU...THEN AGAIN FROM
02Z-06Z/FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AND HUMID AIR
INVADES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A STRONG CAP AROUND 5 THSD FT
TONIGHT...WITH DRY AIR JUST ABOVE. THIS SHOULD KEEP PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. 00Z NAM IS DRY TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z...BUT DOES INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS BY
15Z.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A STRONG CAP AROUND 5 THSD FT
TONIGHT...WITH DRY AIR JUST ABOVE. THIS SHOULD KEEP PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. 00Z NAM IS DRY TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z...BUT DOES INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS BY
15Z.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WOULD BE ANY IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NORTH
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WILL SLOW ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT STILL HAS A HARD TIME PUSHING NORTH UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. HRRR AND NAM HAS SOME MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION IN THE
MODELS AND IT MAY BE TOWARD EVENING BEFORE THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES SHORELINE AREAS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WITH A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND 850 MB FOCUSED WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY
MESOSCALE MODELS. IT MAY AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN OR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA. STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON THIS OCCURRING.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT...AS STRENGTHENING CAP LIMITS ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PASSING SURFACE WARM FRONT. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE ANY SEVERE HAIL
WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE WEAKER
WINDS...MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION. LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN FORECAST IF WINDS WEAKEN MORE THAN
EXPECTED.
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR
THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA...REACHING TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SHEBOYGAN MAY REMAIN COOL WITH
ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAP WEAKENING
DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT ON NAM AT 21Z THURSDAY AND JUST
A LITTLE LEFT ON GFS AT 00Z FRIDAY. WEAKER CAP WEST THAN EAST.
CONTINUED TO BRING LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING...AND IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE COULD BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BEST SHOT SEEMS TO BE MORE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SETUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SFC BASED CAPES WILL APPROACH 2000J/KG WITH DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 20 TO
25KT RANGE. THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET WILL PUSHING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA AS WELL.
THAT NICE BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO SUPPORT DEEPER UVV. THE CIPS
HISTORICAL ANALOGS SHOWS PLENTY OF SIMILAR EVENTS PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
CORE OF THE EVENTS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT MAKES
SENSE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE SFC COLD FRONT DOESN/T ENTER OUR WESTERN
CWA UNTIL ABOUT 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...HIGH POPS FOR
RAIN ARE JUSTIFIED.
FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING...LIKELY EXITING OUT OVER THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN GOING UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS. SHOULD
BE STABLE ENOUGH THAT IT WILL JUST BE RAIN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
NARROW HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A KEEPER OF
A DAY ON SATURDAY AS THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALL SHOW SOME
FORM OF A VERY SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING PLENTY CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER
LEVELS FEATURE A DIGGING LARGE SCALE TROF AND AT THE SURFACE AND
INVERTED TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...ONLY SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNLIKE
THE LAST UPPER LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH HERE LAST WEEK...THIS ONE
SHOULD BE MILDER WITH ON AND OFF RAIN. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MID EVENING...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
EAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. LOWER
VISIBILITIES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY TRY TO MOVE ONSHORE TOWARD
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA...BUT LEFT THESE LOWER VALUES OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z
THURSDAY...THOUGH LEFT VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS
OCCURRING AT THE MARINE OBSERVATION SITES. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
00Z THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY 00Z
THURSDAY.
MILDER AIRMASS WITH MORE MOISTURE...MOVING OVER COOL WATERS WILL
LEAD TO FOG FORMATION BY LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
903 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AN IMPRESSIVE SFC WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM IA EWD INTO N IL
EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE AN 850 MB WARM FRONT SHIFTED INTO
C WI. DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF GRB CWA...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ AIMED INTO NC/C
WI AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM). THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARED TO BE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
ROUGHLY 150-300 J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...ACCORDING TO
OUR LOCAL MESOANALYSIS PAGE. SCT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WAS
ONGOING OVER EASTERN MN AND WSTRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE CAP
WAS WEAKER AND STRONG LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING.
MADE AN ATTEMPT TO WORK SOME GENERAL IDEAS INTO THE POP/WX GRIDS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL DATA TRENDS. HAVE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE H8 WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE FOCUSED (UNTIL THE
LLJ WEAKENS AROUND 07Z-08Z)...AND THE CAP MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. THE
MN CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS POISED TO SHIFT THROUGH MAINLY OUR NW
COUNTIES. ISOLD SVR HAIL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HGTS OF 8.5-10K FT.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL
GENERATE AN MCV LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH NC WI
(MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM AUW-IMT) DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD. HAVE
WORKED SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTENTION SHOULD THEN FOCUS ON THE SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN CENTRAL WI THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO CENTRAL WI LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...A SHORTWAVE TURNED MCV IS
EXITING THE STATE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WAKE LOW WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BEHIND THIS MCV...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP FROM WAUSAU TO MANITOWOC IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN 850MB WARM FRONT. THINK THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH. TOUGH TO PICK OUT ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS TO KEY ON FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.
WITH BROAD WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AN
850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THOUGH A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE MAY STILL BE ONGOING BEHIND THE MCV THAT IS EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CURRENTLY...ASCENT OVER THIS WARM FRONT ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...TIMING OF RE-DEVELOPMENT IS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON...SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS EVENING...AND INCREASED
THEM TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8 C/KM RANGE...ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1100 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS TO A LESSER
EXTENT.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. HOW QUICKLY THAT WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
IS A BIG QUESTION MARK AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL LIKELY BE
IMPEDED BY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...HAVE A TOUGH TIME SEEING THIS WARM
FRONT REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 00Z FRI. THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THIS WARM FRONT ONLY REACHING THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR BY THIS
TIME SO THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY POPS OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND A CHANCE
EVERYWHERE ELSE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES. CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE FOX VALLEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 60S...ML CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
HAVE FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC/MOISTURE ADVECTION. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL STILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE TO THE WEST...SO SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES MAY GET DELAYED INTO THE EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LOW AMPLITUDE/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO A WEST COAST UPR RDG/E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WL BE THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF
A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TO BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT TO NE WI WHICH TRANSLATES
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...BUT ALSO A WET PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF PCPN.
SFC LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY TRACK NE ACROSS MN THU NGT WHILE THE CDFNT
PUSHES INTO WRN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF WL CONT TO GET PUMPED INTO WI
WITH INDIVIDUAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ENUF SHEAR IS EVIDENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THUS A POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS THU NGT. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
HAVE SUMMER FEEL TO THEM WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S THRU
THE NGT. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S
AROUND DOOR COUNTY TO THE LWR 60S ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU CNTRL WI FRI MORNING/ERN WI EARLY TO MID FRI
AFTERNOON AND WL NEED TO CARRY POPS UNTIL THIS FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. EVEN BEHIND THE FNT...CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHWR
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVE THRU WI.
HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI TO BE OVER ERN WI PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 60S.
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO FRI NGT...
BUT MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENUF TO NE WI TO WARRANT A SMALL POP OVER
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RDG
OF HI PRES WL BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATER FRI NGT AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S NORTH TO THE LWR TO MID
40S SOUTH. THIS SFC RDG QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS WI ON SAT WITH CLOUDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT ANY PCPN OUT OF THE FCST AREA
FOR NOW AND KEPT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE (COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPR TROF SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. SW FLOW ALOFT WL
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH CHC POPS
NECESSARY FROM SAT NGT THRU MON NGT. THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT MON
NGT FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT ON TUE COULD BRING A BREAK IN THE PCPN
BEFORE THE UPR TROF ARRIVES AND BRINGS CHC POPS BACK INTO THE
FCST. TEMPS WL COOL A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WI TONIGHT...THEN STALL
OUT IN THE VCNTY OF CENTRAL WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLD/SCT
TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHERN WI BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/THU. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY NC WI DURING THE LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN
SHIFT TO C/EC WI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM
FRONT. ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE MTW TAF SITE.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS EVG INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/THU.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AND HUMID AIR
INVADES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
656 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...A SHORTWAVE TURNED MCV IS
EXITING THE STATE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WAKE LOW WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BEHIND THIS MCV...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP FROM WAUSAU TO MANITOWOC IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN 850MB WARM FRONT. THINK THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH. TOUGH TO PICK OUT ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS TO KEY ON FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.
WITH BROAD WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AN
850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THOUGH A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE MAY STILL BE ONGOING BEHIND THE MCV THAT IS EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CURRENTLY...ASCENT OVER THIS WARM FRONT ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...TIMING OF RE-DEVELOPMENT IS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON...SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS EVENING...AND INCREASED
THEM TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8 C/KM RANGE...ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1100 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS TO A LESSER
EXTENT.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. HOW QUICKLY THAT WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
IS A BIG QUESTION MARK AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL LIKELY BE
IMPEDED BY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...HAVE A TOUGH TIME SEEING THIS WARM
FRONT REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 00Z FRI. THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THIS WARM FRONT ONLY REACHING THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR BY THIS
TIME SO THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY POPS OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND A CHANCE
EVERYWHERE ELSE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES. CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE FOX VALLEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 60S...ML CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
HAVE FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC/MOISTURE ADVECTION. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL STILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE TO THE WEST...SO SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES MAY GET DELAYED INTO THE EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LOW AMPLITUDE/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO A WEST COAST UPR RDG/E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WL BE THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF
A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TO BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT TO NE WI WHICH TRANSLATES
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...BUT ALSO A WET PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF PCPN.
SFC LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY TRACK NE ACROSS MN THU NGT WHILE THE CDFNT
PUSHES INTO WRN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF WL CONT TO GET PUMPED INTO WI
WITH INDIVIDUAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ENUF SHEAR IS EVIDENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THUS A POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS THU NGT. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
HAVE SUMMER FEEL TO THEM WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S THRU
THE NGT. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S
AROUND DOOR COUNTY TO THE LWR 60S ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU CNTRL WI FRI MORNING/ERN WI EARLY TO MID FRI
AFTERNOON AND WL NEED TO CARRY POPS UNTIL THIS FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. EVEN BEHIND THE FNT...CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHWR
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVE THRU WI.
HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI TO BE OVER ERN WI PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 60S.
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO FRI NGT...
BUT MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENUF TO NE WI TO WARRANT A SMALL POP OVER
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RDG
OF HI PRES WL BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATER FRI NGT AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S NORTH TO THE LWR TO MID
40S SOUTH. THIS SFC RDG QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS WI ON SAT WITH CLOUDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT ANY PCPN OUT OF THE FCST AREA
FOR NOW AND KEPT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE (COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPR TROF SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. SW FLOW ALOFT WL
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH CHC POPS
NECESSARY FROM SAT NGT THRU MON NGT. THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT MON
NGT FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT ON TUE COULD BRING A BREAK IN THE PCPN
BEFORE THE UPR TROF ARRIVES AND BRINGS CHC POPS BACK INTO THE
FCST. TEMPS WL COOL A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WI TONIGHT...THEN STALL
OUT IN THE VCNTY OF CENTRAL WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLD/SCT
TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHERN WI BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/THU. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY NC WI DURING THE LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN
SHIFT TO C/EC WI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM
FRONT. ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE MTW TAF SITE.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS EVG INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/THU.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AND HUMID AIR
INVADES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
329 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITED SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER MUCH BETTER CLEARING IS NOW SEEN OVER THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE LARGELY IN THE 40S SO THERE IS
DECENT LLVL MOISTURE. WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CONVERSE COUNTY. THE RUC INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS. THE HRRR MODELS HAS ALSO BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A DISCRETE CELL JUST TO THE NORTH OF CONVERSE
COUNTY. NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE) IS FCSTED
OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT
STRONG STORMS OUT THERE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN
BY LATE EVENING. ONE MORE MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER UTAH. SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATE WED MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEATHER CONCERN FROM LATE MORNING WED THROUGH THE AFTN WILL BE ON
THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 0-3 KM HELICITY IS CLOSE TO 300 ALONG 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 KTS. THINKING THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO WITH THE GOOD LLVL
SHEAR. THE WINDOW FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD NOT EXTEND MUCH LATER THAN
THE EARLY AFTN HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTN AND
INSTABILITY IS ON THE DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IT PUSHES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON WED EVENING AND
THEN BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WED
NIGHT. A TROWAL IS SHOWN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION
IS DEPICTED LATE WED AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WY...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER
06Z. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS. HPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TO SNOW COULD OCCUR AFTER AROUND 09Z
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT OR SO. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
THE WARMEST IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AS IT KEEPS SFC WET BULB
TEMPS ABOVE 37F TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WED NIGHT
...WHEREAS THE NAM IS CLOSE TO FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD QG ASCENT WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO
EAST CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 12-18Z THU. WITH 700-850 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND
-5 C...WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. NOT THINKING RATES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE DEEPER COLD
AIR. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTN...WITH PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT WITH A FEW
NUISANCE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN. DESPITE SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. GFS CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C/KM...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.
BIG QUESTIONS COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW
AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO. LATEST GEM SHOWS A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE...
SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 12Z GFS TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE...WITH A
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN
THESE DIFFERENCES...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER MAJOR STORM
LATE IN THE PERIOD IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY. SNOW WOULD AGAIN BE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS H7 TEMPS PLUNGE AS LOW AS -10C. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE A
GOOD BET LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FCST HIGHS
ON SUN AFTN AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT DO NOT LEND
CREDENCE TO HIGHS NEAR 60F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW TRYING TO GET
ORGANIZED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. DEWPOINT BOUNDARY HAS ALSO SHIFTED
WEST OF CHEYENNE DURING THE LAST HOUR. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP WAS
SHOWING THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THESE CLOUDS ERODE. IF THE CLOUDS
DO ERODE...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING LESS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WE MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. WE DID NOT
FORECAST ANY IFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO LIMITED WARM AIR
ALOFT. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 10-15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH WITH THE GREENUP IN PROGRESS. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT. LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SURPASS
FLOOD STAGE ON THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY BY LATE TONIGHT AND
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SLOW SNOW MELT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA NOW. HOPWRF AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS OUR WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISO SEVERE POSSIBLE. MAY LATER GO CAT POPS ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR OF MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE...WAITING TO SEE HOW LONG
THEY HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN SOME REMAINING CAP ALOFT./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY EARLY/MID EVENING. NAM TRIES TO
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND NOSE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MESO PARAMETERS SUGGEST DECENT
CAPE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO PAGE HAVE DECENT CINH IN PLACE
AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA AS LLJ KICKS IN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z-09Z WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM ERN NE/SE SD LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. WITH THE CWA
IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AROUND 60...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
ONLY DROPPING INTO 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE EITHER AROUND MON
OR TUE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOMORROW HOWEVER WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF IA
AT ONSET OF PERIOD /12Z/ ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BUT
CONVECTION MAY BE BRUSHING PORTIONS OF NW IA AS WELL. LOBE OF WEAKER
FORCING WILL THEN LIFT INTO IA 18Z-00Z COINCIDENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET AND AT FIRST GLANCE THIS SHOULD HELP OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONDUCIVE HOWEVER. MLCIN
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME THAT THE MLCAPE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
MN. THUS THE WINDOW WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COUPLED
WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SMALL. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONDITIONAL AND CERTAINLY THERE WITH
DEEP SHEAR PUSHING 50KTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED CLOSER TO THE FRONT AXIS
THAN LINE NORMAL SO CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR
RATHER THAN DISCRETE AND IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVEN
DIMINISHED LARGE SCALE FORCING AS IT BEGINS TO SPLIT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD INTO FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRI BEFORE A RETURN
TO MORE PRECIP CHANCES. ALTHOUGH GREENNESS TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIP
MAY REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT...SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT DEEP MIXING AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS FRIDAY THAT COULD ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS.
RELATIVELY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF HOLDING FRONT BACK INTO SERN IA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO A PROLONGER PERIOD WITH POPS FAVORING
THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATER AS WELL. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDS OUR POPS BY TUE
HOWEVER SO THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. PERSISTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CONUS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
TEMP EXTREMES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ESSENTIALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AFFECTING
KFOD...KMCW...AND KALO TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A BREAK
PRIOR TO NEXT ROUND BEGINNING BETWEEN 16-18Z CENTRAL/WEST AND
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH DAY BY 23-00Z WITH KOTM POSSIBLY SEEING
ADDTIONAL THUNDER AFT 00 THROUGH 04Z. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT TIMED OUT
DAYTIME THUNDER OTHER THAN VCTS DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS. SOUTH
WINDS REMAIN BRISK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH WINDS THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST. AGAIN...SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY FROM 16Z THROUGH 04Z FROM
WEST TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT PACKAGE WILL BETTER DEFINE COVERAGE/TIMING
OF CONVECTION. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Very high based showers and a few thunderstorms continue this
morning, and expect this to slowly subside through the early
afternoon hours with somewhat drier 700-850mb air working in from
the west and modest Q-vector convergence slides through. Surface
low over northwest Kansas early this morning should rotate
northeast into northwest Iowa by late afternoon as main upper
trough moves likewise from central Colorado, with trailing cold
front entering northeast Kansas in the mid afternoon. Even with
high clouds perhaps staying rather persistent, pre-frontal airmass
should still destabilize to a leave little convective inhibition
from deep southwest flow. Convergence along deep frontal boundary
should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
and move quickly northeast with strong mid-upper winds. Low level
shear in this setup is not strong but still enough CAPE/shear
combination for severe weather. Mid-level lapse rates slightly
weaker than Wednesday afternoon/evening but large hail still quite
possible. Slow movement of boundary and its orientation to storm
motions could allow a storm to ride the boundary for increased
low-level helicity and at least a minor tornado potential.
CAPE/shear slowly weaken through the overnight hours but synoptic
boundary still moves rather slow with secondary upper wave moving
east across southern Kansas bringing cooler air aloft with it for
some potential for persistent convection in east central Kansas,
mainly south of I-35 through the night. Effective front via
outflow for earlier storms could push heaviest convection to the
southeast however.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Friday-Saturday Night: Passing shortwave on Friday morning ushers
precipitation eastward and cooler temperatures in its wake. Near
normal highs in the middle 70s with lows in the 50s. Temperatures
climb closer toward 80 on Saturday, however have thunderstorm
chances mainly in the afternoon as return flow is quick to bring
instability back over the eastern portions of the area. As next
shortwave passes to the north near peak heating, could bring
enough associated lift to generate another chance for isolated
severe storms, with CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg, generally
east of Manhattan. Chances could be focused more toward the south
along tightening warm front, but have slight chances across the
east for now. Overnight precipitation chances are due to warm
front lifting back northward over the forecast area, with LLJ
generating precip along and north of the front as it does so.
Enough elevated CAPE north of the incoming cap would leave hail
as any overnight severe hazard.
Sunday/Monday: By the noon hour on Sunday, considerable
instability returns across the area, focused once again moreso
over the eastern half as the surface low/inverted trof lies SW/NE
across the CWA. Triple point appears to set up in central to south
central Kansas around mid day, with differing speeds in the models
as to how fast the main front pushes across the cwa. GFS is nearly
through the area by 0z while EC is slower and across NC Kansas.
Bulk shear vectors running 45-55kts and steep lapse rates coupled
with the strong instability would make hail and wind a threat,
although wind profiles right along the front could be favorable
for tornadoes. Lifting mechanism to get storms going will be the
main question, as trof still on approach by late day and will rely
on upper difluence, or focus along the boundaries themselves to
get storms to develop. Left pops into overnight hours on the
higher side mainly given differences in model runs and trends
favoring the slower EC - which could linger stronger storms into
late Sunday early Monday. Either solution would have activity
ending or decreasing by late Monday afternoon/evening and have
trended grids as such.
Tuesday and Wednesday come in cooler and mainly dry as northwest
upper flow prevails across the plains behind the longwave trof
over the Ohio valley. Weak impulses in the flow could bring
more chances for precip late in the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Main concerns are model progs of MVFR cigs developing this morning
and timing TS redevelopment. Models do not show much additional
advection of SFC dewpoints and the deeper low level moisture
appears to be in south TX. because of this am still a little
skeptical for MVFR CIGS. Have kept a VFR forecast for now but
confidence is not great since the RAP has started to saturate the
boundary layer. Think TS should redevelop by the early afternoon
and initially be scattered in nature. Timing storms into the
terminals remains a low confidence forecast so will just carry a
VCTS at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS THAT WILL BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN ABOUT 09-16Z AT GLD AND FROM ABOUT
12Z-20Z AT MCK. AFTER THOSE TIMES...CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 03Z THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1210 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Tonight through Thursday ...
Water vapor imagery showed the deep mid-level trough stretched
across the western U.S. with southwesterly flow aloft over the
Central Plains. At the surface, low pressure stretched across
southwest to north central Kansas with the dryline nearly bisecting
the state from north to south at 20z. With a tight pressure gradient
in place across much of the region, south-southwesterly winds were
gusting upwards of 25-35mph this afternoon, which aided in decent
WAA as well as moisture advection across eastern Kansas with
dewpoints reaching into the lower to middle 60s. It was another mild
day across the region as high temperatures rose into the upper
80s/low 90s across eastern Kansas and into the mid/upper 90s over
north central Kansas. The warmest conditions across north central
Kansas were co-located with the drier conditions as dewpoints
plunged as low as into the middle 30s, resulting in RH values
dropping into the teens. These dry conditions combined with the
breezy winds will keep very high fire danger concerns in place
through early this evening, so a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
through 8pm across portions of north central Kansas.
Visible satellite this afternoon showed a few storms popping up
across northern Texas/southern Oklahoma along the dryline. The last
few runs of the HRRR/RAP have shown good run-to-run consistency as
well as good agreement with each other regarding the current
mid-afternoon development and additional northward development of
showers and thunderstorms along this dryline this evening. This
initial thunderstorm development looks to be supported by a
mid-level shortwave, and as this wave tracks northward into the area
this evening it will help to provide enhanced lift over the region.
Model soundings show the cap eroding away this afternoon across the
central portions of the forecast area (roughly from Council Grove
northward toward Manhattan), with short-range models showing this
region being well-primed for scattered thunderstorm development,
beginning between 22z-00z. MLCAPE values in this region could be
upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg with upwards of 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk
shear. As a result, the stronger storms may be capable of producing
large hail and possibly some stronger wind gusts later this evening
as the LLJ increases over the region. This activity should diminish
overnight with the loss of diurnal heating. Southerly winds will
remain breezy overnight due to the aforementioned increasing LLJ, so
this strong southerly flow combined with increasing mid-level cloud
cover will keep low temperatures tonight mild in the middle 60s west
to upper 60s/near 70 east.
There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms once again
on Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Central Plains,
finally pushing the cold front associated with this system eastward
across the area by Thursday night. 12z model runs have come into
better agreement with the timing of this frontal passage and the
eastward progression of the dryline through the day. Latest model
trends show any morning precipitation to be focused across far
eastern Kansas, but there are discrepancies with the coverage of
this activity. Feel that this activity should be fairly limited,
which would lead to more time for the environment to recover to
support redevelopment of thunderstorms along the dryline during the
afternoon hours. While there are still some minor discrepancies with
the exact placement of the dryline by the afternoon, thunderstorm
initiation looks to occur somewhere between Abilene and Manhattan
and between 18z-21z. The cap looks to quickly weaken during the
early/mid afternoon hours with upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
45-55kts of 0-6km bulk shear. While there certainly looks to be
decent shear in place, it looks to be fairly unidirectional. The
main threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and
damaging winds, but cannot rule out the potential for a few isolated
tornadoes. The increasing mid-level cloud cover will limit the
daytime heating with Thursday highs likely reaching into the middle
70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Extended focus will be on impacts of first system Thursday night
and second system over the weekend.
Thurs Night...ongoing convection should become focused across east
central Kansas as convergence is maximized along the north side of
a secondary surface low and boundary so will keep high precip chcs across
that area. Much cooler and drier air will arrive for Friday with
highs back toward average in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the 40s.
The next longwave trough will begin to take shape across the
Rockies by Saturday with sfc low pressure forecast to develop
across southeast Colorado. Moisture advection along and north of
the developing warm front could result in SCT convection so will
leave low pops on Sat. Better chances for showers and t-storms
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc low sags into
western OK and the associated sfc front also sags south. It would
appear that given moisture and shear that Sunday could bring a
risk for severe storms but that is dependent on details of front
position so confidence in severe risk Sunday is low at the moment.
Overall confidence in weather trends is higher by Monday so look for a
wet and colder start to the next work week with precip chcs decreasing
Monday night and ending by Tuesday. Temps next week should remain
near Average of 70 to 75.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Main concerns are model progs of MVFR cigs developing this morning
and timing TS redevelopment. Models do not show much additional
advection of SFC dewpoints and the deeper low level moisture
appears to be in south TX. because of this am still a little
skeptical for MVFR CIGS. Have kept a VFR forecast for now but
confidence is not great since the RAP has started to saturate the
boundary layer. Think TS should redevelop by the early afternoon
and initially be scattered in nature. Timing storms into the
terminals remains a low confidence forecast so will just carry a
VCTS at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Update for 6z aviation only.
UPDATE Issued at 847 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Winds have subsided below Lake Wind Advisory Criteria as of 01Z,
so will let it die a natural death at the top of the hour.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape. Will see an increase in
mainly high cloud overnight, with persistent south winds and
slowly falling temperatures. Lows should generally be in the
middle 60s. The only real adjustment was to lower dewpoints a bit
through the night.
There are several areas of convection throughout the Plains this evening,
and the HRRR indicates that convective development will continue over
the Plains through the night. All of that activity is moving mostly
north and poses no threat to our region tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Updated for 00z aviation only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Will let the Lake Wind Advisory ride, though not sure it needs to
go until 9 p.m. Evening shift can end it earlier if need be.
Weak mid level impulse driving small convection near our SRN IL
counties early this afternoon. Feature will continue NE and for
the most part will be a non factor. Tonight through Thursday
mainly dry weather with occasional high clouds, and some CU
Thursday afternoon. Chance PoPs still in place far west late in
the day Thursday, spreading ENE into SEMO, SW IL through the
evening. Chance of convection will increase later Thursday night
from west to east, with best chance PoPs shifting to the ERN 1/3
of the area by early Friday afternoon. Could be some strong to
severe convection over the west part of the area Friday afternoon
and evening as a s/wv lifts ENE from the Plains into the Great
Lakes 18z Fri-06z Sat. Marginal on the severe, supported mainly by
steepening lapse rates, and an increasing upper jet, coincident
with surface based destabilization just ahead of a surface front,
that approaches from the west, and fails to make it into the area.
Evening convective chances will diminish with only slim chance
PoPs after midnight Friday night. Temps will be a blend of the
latest MOS, and previous numbers. Again, trended just a degree or
two lower Friday over the ERN 1/3 of the area, where clouds and
convective chances will persist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
The main item of interest in the long term will be a fairly strong
cold front that will move southeast across our region early next
week. This front will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms...followed by cooler and drier conditions for mid
week. Prior to the frontal passage...this weekend will be
seasonably warm and humid with a few showers or storms possible.
As far as the daily details...
Early Saturday...the remnants of a surface cold front or trough over
the Mid Mississippi Valley will dissipate. Southwest low level flow
will increase during the afternoon. A few showers or storms cannot
be ruled out near the dissipating surface boundary or within the
zone of increasing low level thetae advection. There will likely be
some weak upper level subsidence in the wake of the Friday night
shortwave...so any activity Saturday should be isolated. Temps will
be on the warm side for early May in the persistent southwest flow
pattern.
Saturday night and Sunday...an upper level ridge over the
southeastern states will strengthen slightly. This ridge will keep
our region generally warm and dry. A few isolated storms are
possible on the periphery of the ridge...mainly along and northwest
of the Ohio Valley.
On Monday or Tuesday...a fairly strong cold front will sweep
southeast across our region. The timing of the front is highly
variable among the models. The 12z ecmwf is similar to the 00z
run...keeping the frontal passage delayed until Tuesday. The 12z gfs
and its ensemble mean still brings the front across our region
Monday. There will be a period of showers and storms along and ahead
of the front...some of which could be rather strong.
By Wednesday...noticeably cooler and drier air will arrive as 850 mb
temps fall about 10 degrees Celsius. Even with abundant
sunshine...highs would only reach the lower 70s based on the
consensus 850 mb temps of plus 6 to plus 8.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Winds were decreasing to around 10 knots SSW. Added LLWS with KEVV
AND KPAH were showing 40 to 50 knots out of the south at 2k feet.
Overnight should start to see some blow off from convection over
the plains. Moisture continues to increase over the area resulting
in more low clouds Thursday. There is some hint of 5k cig but
single is weak and held off for now. Winds get going Thursday
similar to today. However do expect additional cloud cover.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
505 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW YIELDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THEN DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A QUICK CORRECTION FOR THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AS OF 07Z...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC TO WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
MIDWEST TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH FROM NELSON COUNTY (11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL DISCERNS THIS WELL). CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN PA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON (UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE REMOVES NRN CWA POPS).
TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...BREAKING LAST FOR HARFORD COUNTY AS THE SFC RIDGE
INFLUENCE/ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS ON THERE THE LONGEST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95 (THE HRRR HAS PROGGED SHOWERS FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS...A CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SALISBURY
MD). THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ONSHORE FRONT (OR WARM FRONT)
IS POSSIBLE SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE AREA.
HOT TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...13-16C 850MB TEMPS MIX DOWN TO MID
TO UPR 80S. 90F POSSIBLE INVOF KCHO (AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE KW99 HIT 90F). HOWEVER...THE CLOUD AND ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
WILL KEEP TEMPS LIMITED ON THE WESTERN SHORE...LOW TO PERHAPS MID
70S FOR HARFORD AND ANNAPOLIS.
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AS SFC RIDGE DRIFTS BACK WEST (THERE HAS BEEN
A LOT OF DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH OF FRONTS THIS PAST WEEK!) MILD
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...MID 50S FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
FRIDAY...LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE AREA. SUNNY MORNING WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 90F AGAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE DC METRO (MID 80S FOR BALT-WASH). THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE LEE
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 30 POPS WEST FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT DELAYED TO 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DETERIORATE
NEAR THE AREA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DETERIORATED BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ON
SATURDAY...BUT IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA 80S ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 80S AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP LOCALLY AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION JUSTIFIED KEEPING CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN GRIDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRIEFLY RESUME CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DETAILS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN SO FAR OUT...SO LOW END CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST
FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR 80 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE AREA. LOWS WILL REFLECT THE SAME
PATTERN...WARMER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN ERODE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. KMTN MAY MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES SLY BUT
LIGHT SO POSSIBLY VARIABLE. EXPECT FOG/IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN. THAT FOG WILL BREAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN LOW CEILINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KT AND WILL BECOME SLY/VARIABLE
TODAY. SELY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN LAST EVENING...NO SCA AS OF NOW BUT HIGHEST GUST
TIME WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY FLOW THEN FOR
FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN FOR SURE IN SWLY FLOW SATURDAY...CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CEB
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW YIELDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC TO WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
MIDWEST TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH FROM NELSON COUNTY (11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL DISCERNS THIS WELL). CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN PA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON (UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE REMOVES NRN CWA POPS).
TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...BREAKING LAST FOR HARFORD COUNTY AS THE SFC RIDGE
INFLUENCE/ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS ON THERE THE LONGEST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95 (THE HRRR HAS PROGGED SHOWERS FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS...A CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SALISBURY
MD). THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ONSHORE FRONT (OR WARM FRONT)
IS POSSIBLE SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE AREA.
HOT TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...13-16C 850MB TEMPS MIX DOWN TO MID
TO UPR 80S. 90F POSSIBLE INVOF KCHO (AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE KW99 HIT 90F). HOWEVER...THE CLOUD AND ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
WILL KEEP TEMPS LIMITED ON THE WESTERN SHORE...LOW TO PERHAPS MID
70S FOR HARFORD AND ANNAPOLIS.
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AS SFC RIDGE DRIFTS BACK WEST (THERE HAS BEEN
A LOT OF DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH OF FRONTS THIS PAST WEEK!) MILD
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...MID 50S FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
FRIDAY...LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE AREA. SUNNY MORNING WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 90F AGAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE DC METRO (MID 80S FOR BALT-WASH). THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE LEE
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 30 POPS WEST FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT DELAYED TO 18Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DETERIORATE
NEAR THE AREA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DETERIORATED BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ON
SATURDAY...BUT IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA 80S ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 80S AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP LOCALLY AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION JUSTIFIED KEEPING CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN GRIDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRIEFLY RESUME CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DETAILS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN SO FAR OUT...SO LOW END CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST
FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR 80 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE AREA. LOWS WILL REFLECT THE SAME
PATTERN...WARMER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN ERODE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. KMTN MAY MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES SLY BUT
LIGHT SO POSSIBLY VARIABLE. EXPECT FOG/IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN. THAT FOG WILL BREAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN LOW CEILINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KT AND WILL BECOME SLY/VARIABLE
TODAY. SELY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN LAST EVENING...NO SCA AS OF NOW BUT HIGHEST GUST
TIME WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY FLOW THEN FOR
FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MARINE HAZARDS FOR THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CEB
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
CONVECTION AND FOG ARE THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EJECTING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH IOWA...KANSAS...AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 996MB LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN KANSAS IS
STRETCHING A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WARM MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
FARTHER ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS PULLING WARM
AIR (10C TEMPS OVER THE U.P.) AND MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS OF 6-10C)
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS REGION AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS PAST EVENING OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SHIFTED EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NOW
IS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA (ON AXIS OF 700MB MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION) AND HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
THERE WAS ONE CELL NEAR GRAND MARAIS THAT WAS CLOSE TO BECOMING
SEVERE). THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AS THAT 700MB AXIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION
IS ONGOING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
IN LINE WITH THE CORFIDI AND STORM MOTION VECTORS. THAT CONVECTION
(WHICH IS FEEDING OFF AN AXIS OF BETTER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 925MB WARM FRONT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES) SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE FEED TO THE STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. THAT HAS LED TO THE PULSE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE OCCASIONAL PULSES
THAT MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P. OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2/3RDS OF AN INCH IN THE KEWEENAW
LED TO A QUICK RISE ON THE TRAP ROCK RIVER (OVER A FOOT IN A COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD TO AID THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF). BACK TO THE WISCONSIN
CONVECTION...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CWA (LIKELY
REACHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER BETWEEN IRON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 10Z). HAVE SHOWN HIGHER POPS AS THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.P. BUT NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...AS
I WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING AS IT PULLS A LITTLE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE BETTERN 850MB MOISTURE/FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL (COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE).
BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE EXACT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATING THE STRONG WAA REGIME WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME CAPPING AND THUS WOULD EXPECT SOME DIMINISHMENT IN
THE ACTIVITY (OR EVEN ENDING) TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA IN THE POPS...BUT STILL LEFT A PERIOD OF CHANCES OR
SLIGHT CHANCES TO ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE. ON LAST ITEM TO NOTE...IS
THE 00Z SPC WRF (WHICH IS HANDLING THIS AREAS CONVECTION DECENTLY)
ALONG WITH THE 00Z NCEP WRFS AND RECENT HRRR ARE INDICATING
THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA HOLDING TOGETHER AND AFFECTING THE
AREA (CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA) TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LASTEST
LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THAT OCCURRING BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TRICKY...AS MIXING DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN
WISCONSIN. THOUGHT CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WOULD LIMIT WARMING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP THE TEMPS FROM REALLY WARMING UP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
CLEARING THINGS OUT AND LEADING TO GOOD MIXING (WHICH SHOOTS TEMPS
UP OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL INTO THE 70S AND SOME SPOTS AROUND
80). OPTED TO KEEP VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE
WEST AND KEPT VALUES COOLER (UPPER 40S AND 50S) IMMEDIATELY DOWN
WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW DUE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR) DUE TO THE COOL LAKE TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS.
NOW FOR THE NEXT WAVE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/S FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AFTER THE STRENGTHENING
CAP LIMITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO KICK OFF IN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. THEN WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45KTS...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS SEEM TO HAVE DELAYED THE INITIATION A
LITTLE BIT AND THUS HAVE PUSHED THE INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH END
LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITES BACK OF COUPLE HOURS. STILL EXPECT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE AREA BY MID/LATE EVENING AND THEN
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED OFF MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA AS THE STORMS RACE OUT AHEAD
OF THEIR INITIAL SUPPORT AND MODELS INDICATING INSTABILITY
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH IF THE STORMS COULD REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE...THE SPEED OF STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT.
FINALLY...THERE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GENERAL
IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG ON THE GREAT LAKES SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS. COULD SEE IT BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WHEN IT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NAM
SHOWS THE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT ON FRI MORNING
AND A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME
THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. WRAPAROUND
PART OF STORM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SAT NIGHT LATE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN. THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES STARTS TO PULL OUT INTO THE PLAINS
12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO 12Z TUE WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO 12Z WED WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY REAL DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THERE MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCT/NMRS ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND IL. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES
SEEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE TODAY. BUT AS MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND
WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT
PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK/ IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING
THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK
RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN
INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NAM
SHOWS THE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT ON FRI MORNING
AND A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME
THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. WRAPAROUND
PART OF STORM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SAT NIGHT LATE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN. THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES STARTS TO PULL OUT INTO THE PLAINS
12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO 12Z TUE WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO 12Z WED WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY REAL DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THERE MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCT/NMRS ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND IL. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES
SEEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE TODAY. BUT AS MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND
WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT
PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK/ IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING
THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK
RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN
INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
I BACKED OFF ON THE MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. I ALSO DELAYED THE
LOWERING OF THE VISIBILITIES. WHILE IT WILL BE UNSTABLE
TONIGHT....I DID NOT FEATURE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAP TRIES TO FORM.
HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE STORMS IN WRN WI...AS THEY
MAY TRY TO TRACK INTO LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CAP BECOMES WEAK...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. FOR NOW I KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST. IF STORMS DO FORM...THE COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
103 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENT ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SW FLOW SHORTWAVES TO
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS TO THE FCST AREA.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...A SHORTWAVE NOW NEAR THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC 3H JET MAX
WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
WITH THE BEST MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
STAYING NW OF THE FCST AREA. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA...THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU AND THEN PUSH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI INCREASING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION ALONG INCOMING WARM FRONT...POOLING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES TO NEAR 40 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE WI BDR COUNTIES THU EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW CAPPED LOW-
LEVELS ARE FROM FCST SNDGS WOULD THINK THREAT OF SVR WOULD BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN JUST A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS A MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOC SFC RDG BUILD IN FM WEST BEHIND THE
FRIDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY
BE COOL ON SATURDAY (GENERALLY IN THE 50S) IN A LIGHT NRLY FLOW BUT
FARTHER INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF LOWER TO MID 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED UNDER PREVALENT SUNSHINE.
SAT NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SW FLOW SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE UPPER LAKES. WAA ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT SHRA TO THE AREA.
MODELS MORE UNCERTAIN ON EVOLVING PATTERN DETAILS FOR SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WED AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGS SE...DEEPENING MID-UPR LVL TROF
OVER THE SW CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH
SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPR LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT MOVING IT
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO GO
ALONG MORE WITH NCEP PREFERRED SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/GEM IDEA
WHICH SHOULD YIELD MORE SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHC FOR TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON NIGHT AND FOR THE ERN
PORTION OF CWA ON TUE AS ECMWF INDICATES NEG SHOWALTER INDICES IN
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCT/NMRS ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND IL. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD THU MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
SOME TSRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POTENTIAL
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
EXPECT ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TO VEER TO THE SE THRU THU AS LO PRES
IN THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT
BACK ON THE COVERAGE. BUT AS MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE
DAY AND THU NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE S AHEAD OF THE LO MOVING
THRU MN...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE W. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE ON FRI NIGHT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HI SHIFTS
TO THE E AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
PASSES ON MON...THE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND THEN THE TO NW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE EARLY MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WITH THE RECENT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
HAVE SLOWLY COME DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR CHASSELL REMAINS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN
FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACT
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Another unseasonably warm night due to strong southwesterly low
level winds and southerly surface winds. There will also be mid-
high level clouds tonight, much of it being high level convective
debris cloudiness from thunderstorms across the Plains. Could not
rule out isolated convection across portions of northeast and
central MO towards morning, but it appears that most of the
showers/thunderstorms will be north and west of our forecast area
late tonight looking at the latest HRRR model run.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
At 19z, a stubborn MCV was continuing to generate SHRA in southern
IL as it slowly made its way E-NE. Almost immediately behind it,
skies clear with full sunshine trying to make up for the cool temps
the clouds provided, with temps now surging into the mid-upper 80s
in central MO, but still stuck in the 70s for a good part of STL
metro and southwest IL. Southerly winds are gusting routinely to 25
mph or more.
A deep upper level TROF is located over the Rockies, with a piece of
energy set to eject from this and move rapidly northeast across
northwest MO late tonight and Thursday morning. Combined with a lo
level jet just to the southwest of central MO, may see a shower or
thunderstorm develop toward daybreak. What develops from there will
have some difficulty advecting northeastward as it moves into an
area with a stronger cap.
A stout southerly wind for most areas will keep temps up, despite
initially clear skies. Prefer the warmer end of MOS as a good
starting point, yielding mins in the mid 60s for most areas, similar
to persistence.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Primary forecast issues include the potential for severe weather
on Thu and/or Fri as well as temperature trends.
Aloft...A strong vort max will lift out of the desert southwest
tonight, reaching western KS/NE by 12z Thu. The position of the
surface low and associated fronts would place the LSX CWA in the
warm sector for most of the day on Thu. As this vort max lifts
northeastward towards the western Great Lakes tomorrow and
tomorrow night, another vort max will enter the western side of
the trough and approach MO/IL on Fri. PW values will rise to +2SD
at times. With the passage of the upper trough on Fri night, flow
aloft becomes quasizonal on Sat, although some models also show a
shortwave that zips through the flow across IA or southern MN. The
flow pattern becomes southwesterly aloft again late this weekend
once a new trough develops out west. Models disagree on whether
this system becomes closed off, but most models do show it moving
across MO/IL on Mon or Tue.
At the surface...One of the interesting features with the Thu/Fri
system is that although the northernmost surface low is forecast
to accompany the the first shortwave and move northeastward, the
development of a secondary surface low back along the cold front
in OK/TX will likely delay the passage of the cold front through
MO/IL until Fri/Fri night when the upper trough moves through.
This front then quickly moves back north as a warm front on Sat.
The thermal and moisture contrast across the boundary should
increase on Sun and Mon due to persistent southerly to
southwesterly flow on the south side of the boundary. This
boundary is forecast to move through the LSX CWA on Mon/Tue as a
cold front, but the 12z models disagree on how quickly the front
moves southeastward.
Severe weather potential for Thu...0-6 km bulk shear vectors are
forecast to be nearly parallel to the H85 boundary in KS on Thu,
suggesting a linear mode for convection farther west. Bulk shear
values remain fairly low across eastern MO through most of the day
before increasing to around 30-40 kts during the late afternoon
and evening hours. The threat for severe weather across the LSX
CWA will depend on how far eastward the initial convection can
progress as well as the extent of cloud cover and whether enough
breaks occur for greatest destabilization during the afternoon and
early evening. Strengthening LLJ and moisture convergence across
the area should support elevated thunderstorms across the area on
Thu night. If an MCS develops, there could be a threat for
damaging winds.
Severe weather potential for Fri...Depending on convective trends
on Thu night into early Fri morning, there may be a severe weather
potential on Fri afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Models depict favorable H7-H5 lapse rates of 6.5 to 8 deg C/km
along with 30-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and increasing lift
ahead of a strong vort max. Models differ on the timing of the
vort max and that detail could be the difference between overnight
convection which persists into the day and enough rain-free hours
for the vort max to initiate a distinct round of convection within
a destabilizing afternoon environment. The threat for severe
weather on Fri would tend to be across the southeast half of the
CWA.
Temperature trends...Expect warm temperatures through Fri followed
by a brief cool-down on Fri night across the northern CWA, perhaps
even as far south as the I-70 corridor. Temperatures warm up again
on Sat and Sun before another cold front moves through on Mon or
Mon night. Expect cooler temperatures for the early and middle
part of next week with northwest surface winds around a high
pressure center over the plains.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
Latest radar derived winds at 2000ft AGL are 40kts, so the low
level jet is there and feel LLWS it justified in the TAFs. Think
that dry and VFR conditions will continue until thunderstorm move
into the area late tomorrow afternoon or evening. Some storm could
be severe over central and northeast Missouri capable of producing
hail and strong winds.
Specifics for KSTL: Still expect LLWS conditions through 14Z.
Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions through 00Z. Then
thunderstorms will move into the area with intermittent showers
and thunderstorms at the terminal between 00-12Z.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MT THROUGH UT TO
AZ. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG EITHER BEHIND OR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 80KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE AND 95KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE AND EJECTING INTO NM/TX. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRNOT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEB TO
NORTHEAST NEB TO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI/MI. 850MB DRYLINE
EXTENDED FROM TX BIG BEND THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...850MB DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE 9-13C RANGE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH 20-25C 700-500MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FROM UT/AZ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS...WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NEB AND
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IA...AND INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL SD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE 850MB DRY SECTOR...ALONG
AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO
NORTHEAST KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEB
BY MIDDAY...WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. GIVEN STRONG
FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-FIRE BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT/PSUEDO-DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
UNANIMOUS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY AROUND 18Z...AND THUS
WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CWA OR JUST EAST. NAM REMAINS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND 00Z 4KM WRF ALSO CAME IN FAST AND
KEEPS STORMS EAST OF THE AREA. BUT RAP...GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND
HINTS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MO RIVER AND WITHIN THE CWA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...DEVELOPING
AS SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND THINK STORMS WILL
EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...THINK MAIN RISK
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY GONE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR EVEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CANNOT ABSOLUTELY SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO TORNADOES...BUT
THINK LINEAR FORCING AND QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONCE STORMS EXIT...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUIET AS DRY SLOT
PASSES ACROSS CWA....FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL
NEB...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWIPE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A
QUESTION...BUT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTS MENTION. THOSE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN HANDLING STALLING FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...KEEPING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BE WETTER...WARMER...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
COOLER...NOT QUITE AS WET...AND MORE STABLE. IN BOTH CASES...MODELS
SLIDE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COOL RAIN AREA POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS DROPPED THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP POPS IN FOR MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF PULLS PRECIP
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD ONWARD. GFS AND EMCWF SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WAVES DURING VARYING PERIODS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE WEAKLY FORCED AND POORLY RESOLVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXHIBIT NO CONSISTENCY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS. LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS SO CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES BEFORE 12Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND CREATE A FEW
WIND SHIFTS FOR THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
NEARING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO NOTED EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS ENHANCED
FLOW THEN SPLITS INTO TWO BRANCHES...WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS
WELL AS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION IS NOTED MOVING FROM WEST-TEXAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY
LINE IS NOTED EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW
AND AS OF 20Z WAS NOTED FROM NEAR KBIE...TO NEAR KCNK...TO NEAR
KGBD. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWESTERN
CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRY LINE...HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST...WITH THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST...AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT
WAVE...FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THUS
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESULTANT OMEGA TO OUR NORTHWEST AS
WELL. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE
HRRR...1KM WRF-ARW...1KM WRF-NMM AND 4KM WRF-NMM. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM SOME SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD BRUSH OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
WANT TO MONITOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CASE IT TRIES TO MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTION COULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE DRY LINE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SINCE
THIS DRY LINE HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA ANY RESULTANT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE INTO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~60KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THIS JET APPEAR AS THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS
...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND
1KM WRF-ARW. COVERAGE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST
AND THUS DID NOT WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20% POP FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THE MOST PART.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING POPS ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT EXTREME
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST COULD ALSO OBSERVE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS
OUR EXTREME EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM
AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST PARCELS ROOTED TO AROUND 800MB WILL
HAVE ~1000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY WITH MINIMAL CIN. DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SO
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DOES NOT SEEM OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FOR TONIGHT IN THE
HWO. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER OUR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA SO WENT AHEAD
WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THAT WAY. ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE INTRUSION OF A DRIER
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL LIKELY PREVENT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FROM CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE 1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR COULD APPROACH 50KTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...THUS PROMOTING A COOLER DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALOFT: MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FROM THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOW
THAT THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE WRN USA THRU MON
5/12...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN USA. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL EXIT E OF THE REGION FRI...TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING THE WRN
USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL
DROP INTO THE WRN TROF SAT...RESULTING IN RE-AMPLIFICATION SUN-
MON. BY THIS TIME FRAME...THE USUAL MODEL BIASES APPEAR WITH THE
06Z/12Z GFS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP...AND THE
00Z/12Z GEM ON THE SLOWEST SIDE. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC DO
FAVOR THE SLOWER GEM. EVEN THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE UKMET COINCIDE
WITH THE GEM. THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR RAINFALL. THIS RENEWED TROF
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS TUE AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA WED-FRI
WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
THE TROF MOVING INTO THE W SAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE TROF E INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE ENERGY
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL SLIP S INTO THE REGION THU
NIGHT WITH THE COOL FRONT DEPARTING FURTHER TO THE S AND E. A NEW
LEE SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP FRI...WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ADVANCING
THRU THE NRN PLAINS FRI-SAT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH/. THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU HERE FRI
NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUN AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE W...AND CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THE FRONT...ACROSS KANSAS CITY
MON MORNING...AND SHOULD BE OVER IL BY 00Z/TUE BASED ON THE 00Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES WILL ENVELOP THE PLAINS TUE-
WED.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX...THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRI-WED...WITH VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 DAY OF
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. RIGHT NOW IT/S MON. ANOTHER VERY
GOOD ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE EXITING COOL FRONT WILL NOT
PLUNGE DEEP INTO THE S. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THE
LOW WILL ALSO BE TRACKING S OF THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
BENEFICIAL/SOAKING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS REALLY
ISNT MODELED YET...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH THE FRONT
HAVING ANABATIC CHARACTER.
THE 16Z WPC EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION WAS REVIEWED.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN S-SE OF THE TRI-
CITIES. DOESNT CURRENTLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME SUN-MON.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: CLEARING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
FRI NIGHT: INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEGATIVE TILT NRN
PLAINS TROF MOVES THRU ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT
TROPOPAUSE JET.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED SPRINKLES HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF I-80. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE NO LOWER THAN 10K FT. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN.
SAT: MORNING COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CHANCE OF MORNING
SHWRS/TSTMS WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST AND REPLACED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THEN CLEARING AND A
LITTLE WARMER.
SAT NIGHT: A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL INDUCE STRONG
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH THE LLJ VEERING THRU THE NIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO BE E OF THE FCST AREA.
SUN-MON: LOTS OF DETAILS LEFT TO BE DETERMINED. BELIEVE ODDS ARE
VERY HIGH OUR CURRENT HIGH TEMPS ARE WAY TOO WARM BOTH DAYS. WE
ARE BASICALLY CARRYING 60-70F. CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST
50S AND THIS LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
BLUSTERY N WINDS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
TUE: DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NW FLOW ALOFT.
WED: NW FLOW MAY DELIVER A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
HAVE LARGELY MAINTAINED THE SAME EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS AS PORTRAYED BY THE PREVIOUS TAF...ALTHOUGH WILL STATE UP
FRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET OR EVEN FORMATION OF MVFR
CEILING IS STILL A BIT SHAKY...AS MANY MODEL/GUIDANCE SETS HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL IN THIS DEPARTMENT OF LATE. IN
SHORT...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT VFR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING THROUGH FROM SOUTH-NORTH. UNLESS COVERAGE AND/OR
INTENSITY INCREASES NOTICEABLY...HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A GENERIC
VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION FOR NOW. GOING FORWARD...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE 10Z-15Z TIME FRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MVFR CEILING...WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO VFR AND/OR SCATTERS OUT
BY MID-LATE MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MVFR SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD IS LOOKING DRY UNLESS A ROGUE SHOWER/SPRINKLE HAPPENS
TO SKIRT BY ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS WELL TO THE NORTH
AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF KGRI. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY WILL
ALSO BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL
PREVAIL...WHICH THEN AT LEAST BRIEFLY SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND SHIFTING TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL OF MAINLY 30-35KT
TARGETING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHEAST WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WERE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THERE...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
90S ALSO SEEN/EXPECTED. IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA...DEEPER MIXING WAS
OCCURRING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WERE DRYING LOW
LEVELS AND BOOSTING TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT WERE NOSING INTO JEFFERSON/SALINE COUNTIES AS OF 2 PM...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST ACROSS RED FLAG WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE EVENING.
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION WERE OF NOTE AT EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. CONGESTUS-LOOKING
CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO IGNITE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CLOUD
TOP COOLING ALGORITHMS WERE SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THOSE
CLOUDS TO CONVECT. BUT IF THEY DO...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY RIDE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS
NOTED OVER THIS AREA...SO THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE NOTHING WILL
GO CLOSE TO OUR AREA...FOCUSING ACTIVITY MORE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE INHIBITION IS LOW.
KANSAS POTENTIAL CONVECTION WAS BUBBLING UP UNDER INCREASING MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 90S.
DRYLINE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ADDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
THE MIX. ALSO OF NOTE...MESOSCALE MODELS RAP AND HRRR ALONG WITH
NAM12 EVENTUALLY BUBBLE CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOVE THAT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE INTERACTION WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL. CINH IS LOWERING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE DEW POINTS HAD ONLY MIXED INTO THE 50S...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE. SO GIVEN INSTABILITY...FRONT IN THE AREA...AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL DATA FIRING CONVECTION...WILL ADD AT LEAST
SMALL POPS TO MOST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE...WITH AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
THEN LATER TONIGHT...STORMS FIRING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REGION
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANY MORNING STORMS TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID MORNING BEFORE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MARCHING EAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. VARYING MODEL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
STILL APPARENT...BUT WERE BETTER IN LINE SHOWING BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AT TIME OF MAX HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WEST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND CLOSE TO 50KT OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL RESIDE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO FIRE. STORMS WILL RACE NORTHEAST AS FRONT
PUSHES EAST...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR THOSE AREAS. SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND EXITING FRONT...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVE INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. AS WAVE TRACKS EAST ON
SATURDAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE
MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY...THEN PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BUT ALL POINT TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AT LEAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING-TYPE SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH FOCUSING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD. SO HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD BRING ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS SO CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES BEFORE 12Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND CREATE A FEW
WIND SHIFTS FOR THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
418 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER AND
PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 400 AM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) TRACKING ALONG A SHARP 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH
IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE STEADIEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD JUST CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NORTH OF THIS MAY GET A SHORT LIVED SHOWER...WITH AREAS LAKE ONTARIO
NORTHWARD EXPECTED TO STAY DRY.
ONLY A PORTION OF NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE MCV...WITH
THE HRRR PROVIDING THE MOST USEFUL FORECAST SINCE IT INITIALIZES
THIS FEATURE BEST. THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WSW...DROPPING
OUT OF THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING A LULL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A SHOWER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE NE FLOW ALREADY
NORTH OF THE STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF DROPPING
TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT COULD
SPARK A SHOWER ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE/WARM AIR ALOFT BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT) COUPLED WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
AMPLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPES RISING UPWARDS TO 500 TO 1000
J/KG AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LI`S FALL BELOW 0C
THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING AND LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BEING MORE THAN YOUR GARDEN VARIETY. PWATS
UPWARDS TOWARDS AN INCH AND A HALF ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL FEED SUCH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY DROP BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...THOUGH WITH THE AIRMASS BEGINNING TO
BECOME MOIST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GREATER RAINFALL EVENT.
WITH THE WET GROUND AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL RISE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA AROUND +12 TO 14C FRIDAY.
THIS WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS...ALONG WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK
CAP ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING AN EARLY SUMMER LIKE FEEL TO THE
AIR WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WARMER
SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND GENESEE VALLEY. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THERE WILL BE A TOUCH OF
HUMIDITY TO THE AIR ON FRIDAY.
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL A COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
RETURN TO THE REGION. WE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION. THE LIKELY POPS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
BRING THIS COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END AS A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY WILL AID IN BRINGING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND/JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS COMBINED WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT LEADING INTO MOTHER`S DAY WITH INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN FOR SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS MOISTURE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY BUT FEEL THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA AGAIN WARM...UPWARDS TO 13
TO +15C WHICH WILL BRING AGAIN WARMTH TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GO
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS POSSIBLY A DAYTIME
CAP/INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. THE SUNSHINE THOUGH SHOULD
AGAIN ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARMTH INTO
WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 08Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CLIP SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD EXIT 10Z-12Z...AND BRING A LULL
IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING. EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. A NE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT JHW WHICH IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND COULD GET AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG
SURFACE WINDS OR COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
155 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
REMAINING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ NOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS...WITH ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN LIKELY. NORTH OF
THIS...IT IS MUCH DRIER WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. FURTHER NORTH SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AS THE TRAJECTORY
OF DISTURBANCE IS WSW WHICH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF MOST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE HRRR PROVIDES REASONABLE GUIDANCE ON THIS
FEATURE...WITH MANY OTHER MODELS LIKELY TO BE TOO SLOW OR TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE FEATURE.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
PUSH TO MOVE IT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE EARLY IN
THE DAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV EXITS...AND THEN AGAIN LATER
IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY WARMER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WHERE HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. AN ENE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AS WE
OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. MODEL TIMING DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR SAID CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM BRINGING
IN AN EARLY EVENING ROUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
DISPLACED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS CONSENSUS IS HIGHER ACROSS THIS
REGION. WITH WARM MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY SUMMER-LIKE AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST.
IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY END TO THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. AS 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB TOWARDS +14C...SURFACE READINGS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S
WITH TYPICALLY WARMER AREAS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER
BREACHING THE 80 DEGREE THRESHOLD. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAK
OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...WITH PWATS CLIMBING OVER 1.5 INCHES...MANY AREAS COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AS THE MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WV WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING TO THE NE INTO ONTARIO
CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES W/SHRA AND TS SATURDAY. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY W/PRIMARILY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT AS A WK WAVE WILL
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MORE UNSETTLE WX MON THRU
WED AS A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PLANS INTERACTS WITH A BROAD SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRAW UP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE W/SHRA
AND TS DURING THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ARE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE EIRE...AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO JHW...AND
PROBABLY BUF/IAG AS WELL. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT
AT BUF/IAG...BUT MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR SO IN BRIEF
MODERATE RAINS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WOULD KEEP TSTMS SOUTH OF JHW...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
THIS SHOULD EXIT 10Z-12Z...AND BRING A LULL IN THE ACTION THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. A NE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWERS AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT JHW WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH
AND COULD GET AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...WAVES
WILL REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS ON THE LAKES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS OR
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
KBIS AND KJMS WILL BE THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE THE LOWEST CIGS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD...WHILE KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPINGE ON KBIS AND KJMS BY
12Z AND A VCSH HAS BEEN UTILIZED BEFORE THE TRUE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. KBIS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES...WHILE
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AT KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY WITH LOW VFR CIGS COMMENCING
THEREAFTER. KJMS WILL BE IN THE RAIN AREA AND IFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ENHANCING
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...INDICATING DEEP VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY
FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SPRAWLED OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS WELL
AND LIFTS THIS INITIAL BAND NORTH...BUT WEAKENS IT AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL BORDER BY 08Z-09Z. DESPITE THIS...STILL
EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO FOLLOW
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ADJUSTED POPS/TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND REGIONAL RADAR...OTHERWISE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A SHORT PERIOD (3-5) HOUR
SLIGHT CHANCE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TOO STABLE
FOR CONVECTION. ALSO ADDED FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING UP
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FOLLOWED RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND TRIMMED POPS QUITE A BIT
FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN.
RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND THE NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE 19 UTC RAP
AND THE 12 AND 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE...NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OUTSIDE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY 23-01 UTC. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. EXPECT ALL
OF THE NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST TO BE
RAIN FREE ON THURSDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR
TONIGHT...LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT FOR NOW AS DRIER AIR
PROPAGATES INTO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY
EXPECTED.
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST IN THAT REGION.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE WEST.
THE ECMWF / GFS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING AN H5
LOW JUST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW FARTHER NORTH. GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THE OUTER PERIODS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
KBIS AND KJMS WILL BE THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE THE LOWEST CIGS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD...WHILE KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPINGE ON KBIS AND KJMS BY
12Z AND A VCSH HAS BEEN UTILIZED BEFORE THE TRUE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. KBIS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES...WHILE
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AT KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY WITH LOW VFR CIGS COMMENCING
THEREAFTER. KJMS WILL BE IN THE RAIN AREA AND IFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
430 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ILN CWA REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT FAR FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA (WITH TEMPERATURES FROM TOLEDO TO FORT
WAYNE IN THE LOWER 50S). A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW HAS SPARKED A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...REQUIRING SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN BE WELL MIXED
THROUGH AROUND 850MB...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG...SO GUSTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 20-25 MPH. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO OBSERVED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO DEGREES WARMER. 89 DEGREES IS THE RECORD FOR ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES...AND THESE RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY...THE RAP IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...MIXING WELL TOO HIGH. THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
ARE NONETHELESS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH
THROUGH MINNESOTA...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THIS LOW AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER-RES RUNS THAT ARE NOW IN
RANGE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ITS EASTWARD MOTION WILL BE
VERY SLOW. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND WEAKEN
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCREASE...AS
THE FRONT MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER AND INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...INSOLATION WILL NOT BE IDEAL...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE MORE FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT LUMBERS EASTWARD...AND AS IT LOSES ITS DEFINITION
BY SATURDAY (LAYING OUT IN MORE OF A SW-TO-NE DIRECTION)...POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE ILN CWA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE INITIAL BATCH OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL SIGNS IN THE
MODELS OF ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT THESE ARE NOT BEING MODELED CONSISTENTLY.
EVEN THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL GET SOME
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL STILL BE KEPT IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...OWING TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT CONCERNS.
FOR FRIDAY...THREATS FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SEEM TO BE ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE...WHICH CAN BE TIED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...WITH SHEAR
THAT IS WEAK TO MODERATE...BUT MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO
THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP IN THIS SORT OF
ENVIRONMENT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IF THERE ARE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SATURDAY MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN WEAKER FORCING AND SHEAR...LIMITING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL EVEN FURTHER. FINALLY...WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND
ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF. FLOODING ALSO APPEARS TO
BE UNLIKELY.
AFTER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS CEASED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A
SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING A
LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS RETURN OF MOISTURE...PERHAPS
UNREASONABLY SO...AND THUS THE FORECAST WILL WAIT UNTIL WELL INTO
SUNDAY (WITH BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY) TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
LOW-END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE
CONTINGENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION...A GRADIENT FROM NW-TO-SE
IS REQUIRED. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION
INDICATED ON THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. EVEN AFTER THE WEAK FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S (ABOVE NORMAL)...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AGAIN ON SUNDAY (AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO HIGH
CHANCE FOR NOW AS DETAILS AND TIMING ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. A
BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z AS MAIN LIFT FROM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS BASE OF TROUGH STEERS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DRYING
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WITH THAT NEXT LIFT. WE HAVE PULLED THE FINAL
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 12Z. A
DRY AND MILD DOWNSLOPING DAY WILL ENSUE WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY
LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE TRAILING LIFT MAY TEMPER SPEEDS SOMEWHAT.
ALSO...THE MAIN WIND CORE ALOFT SHOULD PASS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WILL TRAIL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT OF SORTS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH IS MOSTLY
WHAT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL ACCOMPANY AN ANEMIC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL REESTABLISH SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT ON A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...DESPITE BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL WANTING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS TOWARD AND OVER THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS
IS WARRANTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING.
A COOLDOWN CONTINUES TO LOOK IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGES OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY-MID WEEK THEN APPEARS TO BE SETUP FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE
OVER...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE STARVATION LOOKS IMMINENT AS THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT TRACKS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEAR THE
GULF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES PASSING OVER THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY. RED FLAG CONSIDERATIONS
WERE ALSO MADE TODAY BUT DECIDED TO FOREGO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
FOREMOST...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WINDS PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WE
BELIEVE FUELS WILL NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE AS THEY POTENTIALLY WERE THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE QUALITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WE EXPECT SOME UPWARD LIFT STILL TO BE
OCCURRING AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST HRRR AND WRF/NAM RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANYWAY...STILL NOT A GOOD DAY FOR
GENERAL BURNING BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM
RECENT DAYS. RMCQUEEN
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
POTENTIALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY ON THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 77 45 80 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 81 48 82 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 83 51 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 84 51 84 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 85 52 85 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 84 51 84 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 84 52 85 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 91 56 86 56 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 90 55 88 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35. FORECASTED
PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB IS
CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH CONSISTENCY
TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT RAIN (LOW QPF)
TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD TROUBLE CAPTURING
ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS EXTREMELY
LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/ UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS. NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SCEC FOR THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 86 68 88 / 60 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 73 86 69 87 / 60 40 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 72 82 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
200 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 853 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE A MID
LEVEL CAP THAT HAS AGAIN INHIBITED ANY CONVECTION. THE SHALLOW
WEDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG ON A WHILE
LONGER BEFORE THE FRONT HEADS BACK NE OF THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST BEFORE A LIGHT WEST/SW TRAJECTORY
DEVELOPS LATE AND HELPS SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW DECK. HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN RETURNING OVER THE SE PER MSAS LIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE WINDS DO GO LIGHT SO
KEPT MENTION MAINLY EAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS. OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S RIDGES EXCEPT A FEW 40S IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED DISSIPATING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR REGION MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN VA TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH CU FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CAP IS STILL HOLDING DESPITE THE SOLAR HEATING...BUT IT IS
WEAKENING. HRRR GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN BUT KEPT MOST OF THE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM AND
GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS..ALLOWED FOR JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
RIDGES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP IN THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S
TO UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
STRONG LAYER OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HINDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY REFER TO CLIMATE
SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THU NIGHT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL BE BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THINK ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW WHICH BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS EDGE CLOSER
AND BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WRN CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A SVR THREAT GIVEN TIMING AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECWMF ENSEMBLES OVERALL PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE
UPPER PATTERN GOES FROM A SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH 5H TROUGH DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MIDWEEK. MAIN FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH LEE TROUGH...UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
SUNDAY. WILL SEE DIURNAL TYPE CYCLE FOR POPS INTO MONDAY WITH SFC
HIGH SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER NOVA/NORTHERN WV. HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AS
WELL.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD TUE-WED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CLOSE IN WITH BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW STRATUS CREEPING WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME STATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE
REPORTING VISIBILITY DROPS TO THE 2SM TO 4SM RANGE. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER 13Z AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP.
FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU
FIELDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS AND WINDS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA. RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO THE WEST WITH MAINLY VFR
EXCLUDING PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR IN A LATE DAY SHRA ESPCLY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/NF
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
411 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AT 4 AM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NORTH OF A GRANITE FALLS MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 600 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS....MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF STRONG
700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AS
THE STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN COLLAPSING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCASIONAL HEAT BURSTS /ALBERT LEA AND AUSTIN MINNESOTA...AND
ALGONA CLARION IOWA/. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
JUST TO OUR WEST...WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING THE STRONG WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THE HRRR AND ARW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SPC WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY AND THEN TAKES THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER OMAHA/S FORECAST AREA AND MOVES THEM
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ON
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
MESO MODELS HAVE NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...NAM...GFS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE 800
TO 650 MB CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DRYING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ASCENT OF
THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE NCAPE /FAT CAPE/ SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. EVEN THOUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DOES NOT FAVORABLE SUPERCELL SHEAR...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THERE TOO. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS TOO. THE HRRR AND ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HOP
WRF...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
VIGOROUS EARLY...AND THEN WANE AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY USES
UP MUCH OF THE CAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE DONE BY 10 PM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ON FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING...AND INTERSTATE
94 IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR SOME FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE...EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT STORMS SKIRTING AREA CAUSING VCTS AT A FEW
SITES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN WEST
AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT DAYBREAK BEFORE
SETTING UP BREAK IN ACTION UNTIL LATER IN DAY WHEN MAIN WAVE
APPROACHES. ALL IN ALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT DURING
WORST OF STORMS...WITH DETAILS HARD TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
OUT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING BETWEEN GENOA AND LANSING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A DRY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...BUT THE COOLDOWN WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR UT/CO BORDER THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES...ONE ALREADY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
AND A WEAKER ONE JUST UPSTREAM. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND LOCAL HI
RES MODELS INDICATE THAT EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. THUS INSERTED A LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY EAST OF GLOBE
FOR TODAY. THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA WILL
PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY 00Z AS THESE EMBEDDED WAVES...AND THE OVERALL
SYSTEM...SHIFT EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 142 AM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS OF 08Z. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAS MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA HOWEVER THE DESERTS REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...TEMPS AS OF 08Z WERE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES /2-3 DEGREES
IN MOST SPOTS/ WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ASIDE
FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO
THE MID 80S TODAY AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ARE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EACH
OTHER AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN DECENT TEMPORAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHEREAS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH ITS MORE
PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DRY SOURCE REGION FROM
WHICH THE TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING. NEITHER SOLUTION INDICATES A
PARTICULARLY MOIST OR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ALSO LENDING CREDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN CU OR VIRGA EAST OF PHOENIX BUT THAT`S ABOUT
IT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR OTHER
PRODUCTS AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.
POST-TROUGH FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY TO
STRONG RIDGING BY MID WEEK. IT`S ALMOST INEVITABLE THAT TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BASED ON THIS MORNING`S 00Z CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL LAG OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...KEEPING
PERIODS OF MOSTLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 15KFT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE PHX AREA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VARIABLE
IN NATURE WITH SPEEDS 8KTS OR LESS...SO WINDS AT KPHX MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEST TO VARIABLE HEADINGS. BY MIDDAY...WINDS TO
TURN S/SE FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WHILE TRUE WEST HEADINGS SHOULD SETTLE
IN FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES BY THE
LATE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS SYSTEM
STRONGER AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO ARIZONA FOR
SUNDAY AND SOMEWHAT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP LATE SATURDAY AND ALSO FOR
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING LIGHTER WINDS...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1200 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGH IS
NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE IS BRINGING A WEALTH
OF DIFFERENT WEATHER TO THAT PORTION OF THE COUNTY...FROM HEAVY SNOW
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE TODAY FURTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA AND MN. A BUSY WEATHER
DAY FOR SURE FOR THOSE FOLKS UP THERE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
HOWEVER...WE FIND THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AND DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION (INCLUDING THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA).
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL
BY THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING BETWEEN 700-600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE MOVING OR
EVOLVING MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
SO...WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? THE STACKED RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS
THROUGH THE TROP WILL KEEP OUR LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER DRY AND WARM
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL INTO
THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MIDDAY...ON THEIR WAY TO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S (EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S) AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL SEE ENOUGH TERRESTRIAL HEATING TO
BEGIN SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND TURN THE WINDS ONSHORE AT THE
COAST. THIS ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A BIT
COOLER. HOWEVER...THE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST ARE
STARTING TO GET UP THERE AS WELL...AND WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT OF A
NATURAL AIR CONDITIONER FOR MUCH LONGER. THE SEA-BREEZE WILL BE
STRONGEST AND MOST EFFICIENT AT MOVING INLAND FOR THE NATURE COAST
WHERE THE GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL
HAVE THE LEAST IMPACT ON PUSHING BACK THE BOUNDARY.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY REACHING LOWS AROUND SUNRISE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH OF
I-4...AND THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT...PROVIDES A
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG
WITH LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE ARE BOTH POINTING TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...HOWEVER...
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY TO NAVIGATE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL BE ADDING FOG MENTION TO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE PREFERRED LOCATIONS WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE FOR DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
DEAMPLIFYING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC PROTECTION WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND GENERALLY DRY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF GROUND FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VIS MENTION IN AT THE NORMALLY MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
KLAL AND KPGD. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE FOG MENTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE EVENING TAF PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE IN LOWERED VISIBILITY
INCREASES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...A PERIOD OF NEAR CAUTIONARY WINDS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 71 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 92 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 70 87 70 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 92 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 89 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NE FL COAST REMAIN FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF THE LCL WX PATTERN. RUC ANALYSIS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...CONFIRMED BY WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWING DEEP
AND STEADY SE FLOW. MORNING SOUNDINGS MEASURED PWAT VALUES AOB
0.9"...MUCH OF WHICH IS TRAPPED ABV THE H50 LYR. UPSTREAM MOISTURE
INDICATES NO PROSPECT OF ANY SIG CHANGES THIS AFTN...H100-H70 MEAN
RH VALUES AOB 40PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOB 20PCT.
MODERATELY TIGHT SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DVLP THIS
AFTN ALNG THE COAST WITH SFC WNDS GUSTING ARND 20 MPH. COASTAL MAX
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S....INTERIOR TEMPS IN THE L90S.
NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 09/12Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 08/15Z-08/23Z...E/SE SFC WND
G22KTS BTWN KVRB-KSUA.
&&
.MARINE...
HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED BTWN THE BAHAMA BANK AND THE NC OUTER BANKS
WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PGRAD S OF SEBASTIAN INLET WILL ALLOW SFC WND GUSTS
ARND 20KTS NEAR THE COAST THRU LATE AFTN. SEAS AROUND 3FT AREAWIDE
BUT ROUGH...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC DUE TO THE BAHAMA SHADOW RESULTING
FROM THE SE BREEZE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....BOWEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
15z/10am surface chart shows low pressure over southern Nebraska,
with warm frontal boundary arcing northeastward into the southern
Great Lakes. The low is expected to lift into southern Minnesota
later today, pulling a cold front/dry line into western sections
of Iowa and Missouri by early evening. Convection will develop
along this boundary during the afternoon, then will gradually
spread eastward into Illinois tonight. 13z HRRR suggests a broken
line of thunderstorms may reach the far western KILX CWA by around
6 PM, with storms pushing eastward toward I-55 by mid-evening.
Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing, albeit slightly faster.
Given current capped airmass across much of the warm sector, think
bulk of the convection will remain west of the KILX CWA today.
Going forecast features chance POPs along/west of I-55 late this
afternoon and this trend still looks good, therefore no zone
update is planned at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
will remain fairly high this morning as the low levels remain
drier than normal. However, some light showers/sprinkles will move
across the western half of the area and effect PIA/BMI/SPI and
possibly DEC. So have put VCSH in those 4 TAFs for about 4hrs this
morning. Then mid clouds around 12kft will prevail the rest of the
morning and afternoon. As the front gets closer and active,
thunderstorms will begin to move into the area. Models have
trended slower with the onset of pcpn and looks like that trend
could continue. However, still some uncertainty, so will have a
VCTS at all sites before more predominate pcpn storms arrive later
in the evening, and then continue during the overnight hours.
Winds will be southerly through the period, with gusts to around
22kts this morning and afternoon. 10-15kts will continue tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
06z surface map indicated main 998mb low pressure wave developing
over western KS. East of the low broad southerly winds brought Gulf
moisture and 60s dewpoints as far north as IA. Warm sector temps
were still in the lower 70s locally as of 2 AM. Aloft, water vapor
imagery indicated a significant mid level wave over the central
Rockies with several smaller shortwaves ahead of this feature
producing clusters of t-storms from the Plains into the upper
Midwest.
Will introduce a low pop for isolated thunderstorms this
morning mainly west of the IL River, as a couple weak shortwaves
lifting through MO has already sparked showers west of Quincy and
farther south towards the Ozarks. Hi- res models suggest this activity
could affect western areas through 15-16z. Otherwise much of the
day should remain dry with southerly flow producing more
unseasonably warm temps with highs expected in the mid 80s. As the
upper trough progresses east lift increases across the west during
the mid to late afternoon and could see some more isolated to
scattered storms. Strongest convection through late
afternoon/early evening should be tied to lift ahead of the cold
front across IA/MO, and as instability wanes during the evening a
general weakening trend is expected as this pushes into the CWA.
Still enough elevated instability and 25-30 kts of bulk shear for
some organization and isolated stronger cores and a low severe
threat mainly west of I-55 through late evening. Several shortwaves
tracking through overnight in concert with lift ahead of the front
will produce rounds of showers and storms and have raised pops to
categorical with a general half inch QPF.
As the front slows across the CWA early Friday, the potential is
for convection to redevelop mainly across the eastern half during
the afternoon. If skies can clear after morning activity,
instability and better shear profiles suggest severe convection
will be possible with damaging winds and hail. Again much will be
dependent on convective debris/clear out.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
A brief round of surface ridging brings dry and mild conditions
for Saturday. The pattern appears to turn active again on Saturday
night, and continues through early next week as a trough to our
west sets up low pressure over the Plains, and surface boundary
wavers across the Midwest. Have kept pops in the chance category
as uncertainty still remains on where the front sets up, with the
EC still favoring areas farther to the northwest. At any rate
higher pops will be associated with an eventual cold frontal
passage in the Monday (GFS) or Monday night/early Tuesday (EC)
timeframe. While temperatures will remain above normal ahead of
this front, a major pattern change looks to take place through mid
week with significant troughing bringing below normal temps back
to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE...RAISING POPS IN THE WEST AND EXTENDING MENTION FURTHER
EAST. ALSO ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX WORDING TO EASTERN COLORADO ZONE AS
REPORT FROM AKRON INDICATING PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND YUMA
WEB CAM SHOWING RAIN/SNOW MIX. VERY STRONG CAA ON BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND LOOKS LIKE MORNING LOWS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 32F. STILL EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO MELT ON WARM
GROUND...THOUGH ELEVATED SURFACES COULD SEE A DUSTING THROUGH
ABOUT 8AM MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS WITH
CIGS 1200-2500FT THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULDNT RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS/VIRGA
AND IFR CONDITIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VCSH MENTION AT KGLD...THINK
OVERALL CHANCES OF BOTH PRECIP AND IFR CIGS ARE DECREASING BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
moving eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains
today setting up another round of thunderstorm development across
eastern and portions of central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
As the upper level system edges out of the Rockies, the surface low
across northwest Kansas is expected to lift northeastward into
Nebraska while and attendant dryline pushes east out of southwest
Kansas into central Kansas. With strong dynamic support aloft still
in place across the Central Plains, thunderstorms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon as it advances
across central Kansas. Surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) and
steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will provide enough
instability to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
into the evening hours. However, considering the placement of the
dryline, not to mention an advancing cold front pushing into western
Kansas Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to be confined
to south central Kansas and east. A few high based showers/storms
may be possible across southwest Kansas Thursday evening as colder
air begins to advect southward into the area steepening lapse
rates aloft while another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejects out
of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front begins pushing
through western Kansas this afternoon. Colder air surging southward
behind the front will lower H85 temperatures to the lower to mid
teens(C) across west central Kansas this afternoon to near 20C ahead
of the front across south central Kansas. Look for highs up into the
70s(F) this afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) still possible
across south central Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 40s(F)
tonight as much cooler air spills southward into western Kansas
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
As an upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley on
Friday the winds will back more to the west which will improve
downslope flow over the central high plains late week/early this
weekend. This continues to support a brief warming trend Friday
and Saturday, however a cold front moving across western Kansas
late Saturday will put an end to this warming trend. Precipitation
chances with the cold front on Saturday still appears to be
confined to northern Kansas based on location of the left exit
region of an upper level jet Saturday and warming 700mb
temperatures across southwest Kansas. Will therefore keep the
forecast for Saturday precipitation free given that the better
forcing will occur north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Another
area for evening convection Saturday will be along a dryline that
both the ECMWF and GFS place in central Kansas. At this time this
area convection is still forecast to be east of Stafford, Pratt,
and the Medicine lodge area.
By early Sunday morning the surface cold front will extend from
southeast Colorado into the south central Kansas based on the GFS
and ECMWF. This front will then remain nearly stationary through
Sunday night as the next upper level storm system approaches the
Central Rockies from the west. Warm air advection and low level
moisture convergence will improve along this surface boundary
Sunday afternoon and based on the late day instability the area
favorable for late day convection will be mainly across south
central Kansas. Precipitation will also be possible late Sunday
across northwest Kansas near a mid level baroclinic zone given
improving 700mb moisture and frontogenesis ahead of the upper
level trough. This area of improving precipitation chances is then
expected to spread southeast Sunday night into early Monday as
this mid level baroclinic zone crosses western Kansas and the
upper level trough exits the Rockies and Central High Plains.
As this next upper level trough moves east towards the Mid
Mississippi Valley late Monday the precipitation chances will end
from west to east. An area of high pressure at the surface will
also build across Kansas Monday night into Tuesday. Given clearing
skies and where the lighter winds will be early Tuesday morning
will favor trending the lows for Monday night across western
Kansas down some from the latest CRExtendFcst_Init.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM BUFR soundings indicating that the moisture preceding an
upper level trough that is currently forecast to cross western
Kansas late today will be at or above the 800mb levels. As a
result VFR conditions are expected. A dryline will cross southwest
Kansas this morning which will result in southwesterly winds
becoming west/northwest. NAM and HRRR suggests this wind shift
will occur at GCK between 12 and 15z, DDC around 15z, and HYS
between 15 and 18z. As northwest winds develop the wind speeds
will increase to near 20 knots. Gusty northwest winds will
decrease to 10 knots or less towards sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 43 76 49 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 72 41 77 49 / 10 20 0 0
EHA 73 42 79 48 / 10 20 0 0
LBL 76 43 79 50 / 10 20 0 0
HYS 72 40 76 50 / 10 20 10 10
P28 82 48 77 52 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
417 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE...RAISING POPS IN THE WEST AND EXTENDING MENTION FURTHER
EAST. ALSO ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX WORDING TO EASTERN COLORADO ZONE AS
REPORT FROM AKRON INDICATING PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND YUMA
WEB CAM SHOWING RAIN/SNOW MIX. VERY STRONG CAA ON BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND LOOKS LIKE MORNING LOWS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 32F. STILL EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO MELT ON WARM
GROUND...THOUGH ELEVATED SURFACES COULD SEE A DUSTING THROUGH
ABOUT 8AM MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS THAT WILL BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN ABOUT 09-16Z AT GLD AND FROM ABOUT
12Z-20Z AT MCK. AFTER THOSE TIMES...CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 03Z THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF HOLLAND. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. BASED ON THAT IT WOULD TAKE
AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION THROUGH 4
PM SO I WOULD SEE THIS AS A MID DECK SHOWER EVENT. I PUT 20-30 PCT
POP IN THE GRIDS TO COVER IT.
IT LOOKS GREAT FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY TOO... THE WARM FRONT IS
NEAR I-96 AND WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY 2-3 PM. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-22 KNOTS BY NOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH COULD IMPACT SRN LWR MI LATER THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING HERE.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06-09Z TONIGHT ACROSS WRN LWR
MI INCLUDING MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT MKG. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-22 KNOTS BY NOON.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH COULD IMPACT SRN LWR MI LATER THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING HERE.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06-09Z TONIGHT ACROSS WRN LWR
MI INCLUDING MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL. THE BEST CHANCE IS AT MKG. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAFFING HAS BEEN REARRANGED AS OF 1030 AM. THIS FCSTR WILL BE
DOING THE ENTIRE FCST. WE HAVE SENT A TWO-MAN TEAM TO SRN SHERMAN
COUNTY TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAMAGE FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL.
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE...PRIMARILY TO SKY COVER AND POPS TO
BETTER DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOT OF
SUN FROM THE TRI-CITIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FCST IS NOW DRY
THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE 09Z SREF AND 13Z HI-RES RAP.
THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THE COOLER TEMPS AND SLOWER EXPECTED WARM-UP UNDER THE
STRATUS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE RAP SKY COVER TRIES TO
ERODE THE SE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
HEADING E AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING KEARNEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND FURTHER SHORT-TERM CLOUDIER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE FIRST OF THE 3 MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS START WITH
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE INVADING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GET TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD ONLY
REALIZE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-28 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH. THIRDLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT PATCHY LATE-SEASON FROST COULD TRY DEVELOPING VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED INTO
THE 34-36 RANGE...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP GIVEN THAT THE
LENGTH OF TIME WITH TEMPS THAT LOW IS FAIRLY BRIEF AND THAT
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP AROUND 5 IF NOT 10 MPH DURING THAT
TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RELEGATE ANY FROST TO LOW-
LYING...SHELTERED AREAS IF IT FORMS AS ALL...AND AGAIN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULDN/T SEE ANY FROST THREAT AT ALL DESPITE
THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPS.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AND STARTING WITH A BRIEF LOOK
BACK...IT WAS A SOMEWHAT MORE-ACTIVE-THAN-EXPECTED EVENING WITH
ONE PARTICULARLY SEVERE SUPERCELL PASSING ALONG A CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM DAWSON-HOWARD COUNTY...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM CLIPPED EASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OR
STRONG EVIDENCE OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PHOTOS SUGGEST GUSTNADOES MAY HAVE KICKED UP SOME BLOWING
DUST. STAY TUNED FOR LIKELY ADDITIONAL REPORTS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING WERE
WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO...BY FAR THE WORST OF THE
STORMS ONLY CLIPPED THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
COUNTIES REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AS OF 11Z/5 AM...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...AS ACTIVITY
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OF A
DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEB/CO/KS BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...SEPARATING PREVAILING NORTHERLY-EASTERLY
BREEZES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO ITS SOUTH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR KS ZONES. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND
WHETHER HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...AS THE
RESOUNDING MESSAGE OF MOST MODELS IS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH ITS CENTER REACHING
NORTHERN SD BY SUNSET...WHILE A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES UP INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY...REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY...AND
SOUTHWEST MN BY SUNSET. AS THIS LOW PASSES BY...BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP COULD SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW SUSTAINED 28 MPH. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE PRESENT LACK OF FORCING WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT...THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 OR HIGHER J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AND ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO
RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS YET THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE IS LOOKING QUITE UNLIKELY...WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND THE LATE-MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN CASE THE VERY BEGINNING STAGES OF WHAT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CWA HAPPENS
TO CATCH THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
FORM...HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. BEYOND THE EARLY AFTERNOON 18Z TIME FRAME HOWEVER...ITS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT
STORMS...AND ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE VERY MARGINAL STORM THREAT...PROBABLY
THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY ALBEIT NOT GREAT WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MIGRATING FROM WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT GRADIENT AND HAVE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 50S
FAR WEST...NEAR-70 CENTRAL AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR EAST.
FORTUNATELY DESPITE THE WINDS...FIRE DANGER IS HELD IN CHECK BY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING UP IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL NEED CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS HAPPEN TO
CLIP THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN STEADILY DECREASING
BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...STEADY SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. BECAUSE WINDS ARE REALLY NEVER EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY DROP
BELOW 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR TEMP-CRASH...BUT
DID NUDGE DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR MID 30S FAR
NORTHWEST...NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FROST SETUP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BUT FELT A TOKEN PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COULDN/T HURT...ESPECIALLY
IF TEMPS HAPPEN TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY MIDDAY. AFTER STARTING OUT CHILLY IN THE MORNING...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR PCPN IN THE DRIER AIRMASS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHC
IN WAA WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADVANCING COOL FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY/MILD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SATURDAY PCPN CHCS RETURN BUT HOW MUCH
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHES OUR REGION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE PATTERN
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN THE
ROCKIES. UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE MEAN
FLOW WOULD LIFT THIS AREA OF PCPN NORTHEASTWARD AND OUR NW ZONES MAY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND THE LLVL JET IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FRONTAL POSITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.
HEADING INTO MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW CLOSES IN THE SC
ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
WITH THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW FILLING WITH TIME. OVERALL A
COOL...CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WILL SETTLE IN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. DID
LOWER SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE INIT...BUT
THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
REGION IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A GRADUAL TREND UP IN TEMPS
AROUND MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION COULD STILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...IT HASN/T HAPPENED AS OF YET...AND THUS WILL GO WITH A
PREVAILING LOW-END VFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AND DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY SHOULD
REALLY BE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE AS A PRONOUNCED CHANGE IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED OCCURS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. IN
GENERAL...AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-DAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST
POTENTIAL OF MAINLY 30-35KT TARGETING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING AT OR BELOW 12KT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MT THROUGH UT TO
AZ. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG EITHER BEHIND OR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 80KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE AND 95KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE AND EJECTING INTO NM/TX. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEB
TO NORTHEAST NEB TO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI/MI. 850MB DRYLINE
EXTENDED FROM TX BIG BEND THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...850MB DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 9-13C RANGE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH 20-25C 700-500MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES FROM UT/AZ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST
KS...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IA...AND
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB INTO
CENTRAL SD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
850MB DRY SECTOR...ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO NORTHEAST KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEB
BY MIDDAY...WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. GIVEN STRONG
FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-FIRE BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT/PSUEDO-DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
UNANIMOUS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY AROUND 18Z...AND THUS
WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CWA OR JUST EAST. NAM REMAINS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND 00Z 4KM WRF ALSO CAME IN FAST AND
KEEPS STORMS EAST OF THE AREA. BUT RAP...GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND
HINTS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MO RIVER AND WITHIN THE CWA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...DEVELOPING
AS SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND THINK STORMS WILL
EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...THINK MAIN RISK
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY GONE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR EVEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CANNOT ABSOLUTELY SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO TORNADOES...BUT
THINK LINEAR FORCING AND QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONCE STORMS EXIT...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUIET AS DRY SLOT
PASSES ACROSS CWA....FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL
NEB...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWIPE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A
QUESTION...BUT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTS MENTION. THOSE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN HANDLING STALLING FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...KEEPING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BE WETTER...WARMER...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
COOLER...NOT QUITE AS WET...AND MORE STABLE. IN BOTH CASES...MODELS
SLIDE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COOL RAIN AREA POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS DROPPED THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP POPS IN FOR MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF PULLS PRECIP
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD ONWARD. GFS AND ECMWF SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WAVES DURING VARYING PERIODS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE WEAKLY FORCED AND POORLY RESOLVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXHIBIT NO CONSISTENCY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS. LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS FROM WRN NEBR INTO SD TODAY LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NERN NEBR BY MIDDAY. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
BRING SCT TSTMS TO ERN NEBR...POSSIBLY IN NERN NEBR LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG A COLD FRONT/DRY-
LINE NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER BY EARLY/MID AFTN. FELT MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WOULD EITHER BE N OF LNK BY MIDDAY WITH AFTN DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF THERE SO NO MENTION WAS MADE AT KLNK WITH 12Z
FORECAST. CONVECTION EARLIER HAD CREATED A VARIABLE WIND FIELD AT
TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ESTIMATED JUST PUSHING
THROUGH KOFK AT 11Z. AS LOW MOVES INTO NERN NEBR WINDS SHOULD
TURN S THEN SW AND GUST AT KLNK/KOMA. HOWEVER...LOW TRACK +
CURRENT FRONT PUTS KOFK IN UNCERTAIN TRENDS AND THUS A VARIABLE
WIND GROUP WAS CARRIED THERE LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL FRONT/DRY-
LINE PUSHES THROUGH FOR GOOD THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE INTO
KOFK VICINITY THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...THEY COULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THAT
SITE. A BAND OF DEVELOPING STRATOCU FROM SW-NW OF LINCOLN AT 1030Z
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KOMA/KLNK TO INCLUDE OUTSIDE OF
TSTMS JUST YET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC BLENDED WITH THE 12-13 UTC
RAP WHICH HAS CAPTURED NEAR TO SHORT TERM POP TRENDS WELL THUS
FAR. DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
GRANT COUNTY...SOUTHERN MORTON AND WESTERN SIOUX COUNTIES WITH
ONLY A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY WITH NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT KBIS IN RAIN AND STRATUS...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN...FOG AND STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY WITH NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A PERSISTENT AND LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KBIS AND
KJMS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KBIS THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. AT
KJMS...LIFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL LIFT TO IFR CIGS
BY MID MORNING. EXPECT IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AT KJMS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL END AT KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
FRIDAY AND BY AROUND 10Z AT KJMS. KISN/KMOT/KDIK WILL REMAIN IN VFR
STATUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CLE ON SW INTO SW OHIO AND MUCH
OF INDIANA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT RESIDE FROM LBE NW TO GKJ. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER NW PA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE HRRR INDICATES A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH ABOUT 4-6 MILES INLAND AND MAY REACH A KCLE TO KHZY LINE BY
21 UTC. COOLER READING ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE DAY SCT CONVECTION THREAT FOR NW PA SHOULD DIE OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CROSSING THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THU NIGHT WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM
SIDE.
A DYING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THIS FRONT COULD START TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WEST AND FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING
EAST.
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST.
DRYER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SAT BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS LERI
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES IN SAT NIGHT SO LEFTOVER CONVECTION
SHOULD END IN THE SE BY LATE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLACEMENT IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER
WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW IN NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN MN VS THE GFS`S BROAD TROF
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LA. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS...BEING LESS AMPLIFIED IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...BRINGING IT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12-18
HOURS SLOWER. WILL FOLLOW A WPS/ECMWF MIX IN GRIDS WHICH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A WARMER TUESDAY. AS FOR POPS HAVE CHANCE NUMBERS MOST
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO EARLY TODAY. FRONT WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
ABOUT...BEING PUSHED AT TIMES BY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OR THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AT KERI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CU RULE SUGGESTS BKN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SHOWS 3500 TO 4KFT BASES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
TO OUR WEST AGAIN MONDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ILN CWA REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT FAR FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA (WITH TEMPERATURES FROM TOLEDO TO FORT
WAYNE IN THE LOWER 50S). A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW HAS SPARKED A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...REQUIRING SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN BE WELL MIXED
THROUGH AROUND 850MB...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG...SO GUSTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 20-25 MPH. 925MB/850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO OBSERVED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO DEGREES WARMER. 89 DEGREES IS THE RECORD FOR ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES...AND THESE RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY...THE RAP IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...MIXING WELL TOO HIGH. THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
ARE NONETHELESS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH
THROUGH MINNESOTA...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THIS LOW AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER-RES RUNS THAT ARE NOW IN
RANGE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ITS EASTWARD MOTION WILL BE
VERY SLOW. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND WEAKEN
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCREASE...AS
THE FRONT MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER AND INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...INSOLATION WILL NOT BE IDEAL...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE MORE FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT LUMBERS EASTWARD...AND AS IT LOSES ITS DEFINITION
BY SATURDAY (LAYING OUT IN MORE OF A SW-TO-NE DIRECTION)...POPS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE ILN CWA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE INITIAL BATCH OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY...THERE ARE STILL SIGNS IN THE
MODELS OF ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT THESE ARE NOT BEING MODELED CONSISTENTLY.
EVEN THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL GET SOME
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...POPS WILL STILL BE KEPT IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...OWING TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT CONCERNS.
FOR FRIDAY...THREATS FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SEEM TO BE ON THE LOW END
OF THE SCALE...WHICH CAN BE TIED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...WITH SHEAR
THAT IS WEAK TO MODERATE...BUT MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO
THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP IN THIS SORT OF
ENVIRONMENT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IF THERE ARE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SATURDAY MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN WEAKER FORCING AND SHEAR...LIMITING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL EVEN FURTHER. FINALLY...WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND
ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF. FLOODING ALSO APPEARS TO
BE UNLIKELY.
AFTER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS CEASED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A
SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING A
LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS RETURN OF MOISTURE...PERHAPS
UNREASONABLY SO...AND THUS THE FORECAST WILL WAIT UNTIL WELL INTO
SUNDAY (WITH BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY) TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
LOW-END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE
CONTINGENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION...A GRADIENT FROM NW-TO-SE
IS REQUIRED. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION
INDICATED ON THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. EVEN AFTER THE WEAK FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S (ABOVE NORMAL)...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AGAIN ON SUNDAY (AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO HIGH
CHANCE FOR NOW AS DETAILS AND TIMING ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. A
BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE AS THE OVERNIGHT PCPN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/FILL IN (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN COUNTIES).
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS IN HAND. HOPEFULLY WE
CAN GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL SYSTEM. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35.
FORECASTED PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB
IS CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH
CONSISTENCY TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT
RAIN (LOW QPF) TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD
TROUBLE CAPTURING ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO
CONSIDERATION HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS.
NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 86 68 88 / 60 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 73 86 69 87 / 60 40 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 72 82 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND DON`T HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. THE RAP 13 AND
NAM 12 INITIALIZED BEST SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLUTIONS.
EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIP ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TAF SITES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR THIS AFTN AND THEN FALL BACK TOWARD MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35. FORECASTED
PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB IS
CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH CONSISTENCY
TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT RAIN (LOW QPF)
TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD TROUBLE CAPTURING
ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS EXTREMELY
LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/ UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS. NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SCEC FOR THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 86 68 88 / 60 50 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 73 86 69 87 / 60 40 40 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 72 82 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.AVIATION...
DRY VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS UPPER TROUGH COINCIDES WITH
SURFACE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z AS MAIN LIFT FROM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS BASE OF TROUGH STEERS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DRYING
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WITH THAT NEXT LIFT. WE HAVE PULLED THE FINAL
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 12Z. A
DRY AND MILD DOWNSLOPING DAY WILL ENSUE WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY
LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE TRAILING LIFT MAY TEMPER SPEEDS SOMEWHAT.
ALSO...THE MAIN WIND CORE ALOFT SHOULD PASS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WILL TRAIL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT OF SORTS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH IS MOSTLY
WHAT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL ACCOMPANY AN ANEMIC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL REESTABLISH SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT ON A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...DESPITE BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL WANTING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS TOWARD AND OVER THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS
IS WARRANTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING.
A COOLDOWN CONTINUES TO LOOK IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGES OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY-MID WEEK THEN APPEARS TO BE SETUP FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE
OVER...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE STARVATION LOOKS IMMINENT AS THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT TRACKS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEAR THE
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES PASSING OVER THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY. RED FLAG CONSIDERATIONS
WERE ALSO MADE TODAY BUT DECIDED TO FOREGO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
FOREMOST...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WINDS PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WE
BELIEVE FUELS WILL NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE AS THEY POTENTIALLY WERE THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE QUALITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WE EXPECT SOME UPWARD LIFT STILL TO BE
OCCURRING AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST HRRR AND WRF/NAM RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANYWAY...STILL NOT A GOOD DAY FOR
GENERAL BURNING BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM
RECENT DAYS. RMCQUEEN
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
POTENTIALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY ON THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 77 45 80 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 81 48 82 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 83 51 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 84 51 84 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 85 52 85 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 84 51 84 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 84 52 85 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 91 56 86 56 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 90 55 88 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AT 4 AM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NORTH OF A GRANITE FALLS MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 600 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS....MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF STRONG
700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AS
THE STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN COLLAPSING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCASIONAL HEAT BURSTS /ALBERT LEA AND AUSTIN MINNESOTA...AND
ALGONA CLARION IOWA/. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
JUST TO OUR WEST...WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING THE STRONG WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THE HRRR AND ARW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SPC WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY AND THEN TAKES THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER OMAHA/S FORECAST AREA AND MOVES THEM
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ON
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
MESO MODELS HAVE NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...NAM...GFS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE 800
TO 650 MB CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DRYING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ASCENT OF
THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE NCAPE /FAT CAPE/ SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. EVEN THOUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DOES NOT FAVORABLE SUPERCELL SHEAR...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THERE TOO. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS TOO. THE HRRR AND ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HOP
WRF...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
VIGOROUS EARLY...AND THEN WANE AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY USES
UP MUCH OF THE CAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE DONE BY 10 PM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ON FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING...AND INTERSTATE
94 IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR SOME FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT IT TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A WIND SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM KS/NE UP INTO MN
BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
WANE...THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD FOR A ROUND OF STORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FOR NOW DID NOT ADD LARGE GUSTS TO
THE TAFS...AS PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND SPEEDS WILL BE DIFFICULT
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND HOW
MUCH TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE IT TO RECOVER. POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND EVEN TORNADOES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO INVADE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING BETWEEN GENOA AND LANSING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
135 PM MST THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A DRY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...BUT THE COOLDOWN WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR UT/CO BORDER THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES...ONE ALREADY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
AND A WEAKER ONE JUST UPSTREAM. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND LOCAL HI
RES MODELS INDICATE THAT EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. THUS INSERTED A LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY EAST OF GLOBE
FOR TODAY. THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA WILL
PRETTY MUCH BE DONE BY 00Z AS THESE EMBEDDED WAVES...AND THE OVERALL
SYSTEM...SHIFT EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 142 AM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS OF 08Z. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAS MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA HOWEVER THE DESERTS REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...TEMPS AS OF 08Z WERE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES /2-3 DEGREES
IN MOST SPOTS/ WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ASIDE
FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO
THE MID 80S TODAY AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ARE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EACH
OTHER AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN DECENT TEMPORAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHEREAS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH ITS MORE
PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DRY SOURCE REGION FROM
WHICH THE TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING. NEITHER SOLUTION INDICATES A
PARTICULARLY MOIST OR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ALSO LENDING CREDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN CU OR VIRGA EAST OF PHOENIX BUT THAT`S ABOUT
IT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR OTHER
PRODUCTS AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.
POST-TROUGH FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY TO
STRONG RIDGING BY MID WEEK. IT`S ALMOST INEVITABLE THAT TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BASED ON THIS MORNING`S 00Z CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND
DIURNAL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES BY THE
LATE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS SYSTEM
STRONGER AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO ARIZONA FOR
SUNDAY AND SOMEWHAT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP LATE SATURDAY AND ALSO FOR
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING LIGHTER WINDS...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
340 PM PDT Thu May 8 2014
.Synopsis...
A chance of showers tonight and again on Saturday. A few
thunderstorms possible in eastern Shasta County this evening and
on Saturday afternoon. Below normal temperatures through
Saturday. Dry and above normal temperatures next week. Highs may
reach 15-20 degrees above normal by mid week.
&&
.Discussion...
A shortwave trough will pass through the Pacific northwest and far
northern California tonight. A weak warm front has brought very
little precipitation so far. Current radar just shows some light
returns in the mountains. WRF and HRRR now showing more
significant showers spreading into the northern Sacramento Valley
later this afternoon as a cold front moves through. There could
be enough instability for some heavier convective showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the mountains of eastern Shasta County
this evening, but instability is looking less and less favorable.
Have removed mention of Sierra thunderstorms.
The best dynamics with this system remain north of the area so not
expecting significant precipitation totals. Rainfall in the Valley
should be mainly overnight and amounts should should be light for
the southern and central Sacramento Valley/northern San Joaquin Valley.
The northern Sacramento Valley could see maybe around a tenth of
an inch in the far northern Sacramento Valley. Some very light
snow is possible over the higher peaks of the Sierra, with no
impacts expected for the Sierra passes.
Lingering showers over the mountains Friday, mainly in the
morning. Dry weather returns late in the day, with another storm
arriving on Saturday. This system looks like it will impact mainly
the northern mountains. It will be limited in moisture, so not
expecting much in the way of precipitation. Instability could be
enough for a few thunderstorms in eastern Shasta County Saturday
afternoon, though. Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday,
which is a little warmer than we are seeing today. Northerly winds
will be quite breezy Saturday afternoon and evening.
A big change in the pattern arrives on Sunday, as strong ridging
develops. Afternoon highs will jump about 10 degrees warmer, and
this is just the beginning of a muli-day warming trend. EK
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
High pressure will build over California through the extended
period, bringing a stretch of very warm and dry weather. Models
have been showing good run-to-run consistency and strong agreement
in this solution. The ridge axis is expected to move over
California on Wednesday/Thursday, meaning those will likely be the
warmest days of this stretch. With 850 mb temps expected to reach
roughly 21-23 C, surface temperatures in the Valley should heat
up to the upper 90s. This should keep high temperatures just below
record thresholds.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across Valley TAF sites.
A weak low pressure system will be moving through the area through
18z Friday. A few light showers will be possible in the Valley,
with scattered MVFR/IFR conditions possible over the mountains
through Friday. South to west winds 10-15 kt with locally higher
gusts will be possible across the Valley through this evening.
Near the delta, southwest wind gusts up to 30 kt possible.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGH IS
NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE IS BRINGING A WEALTH
OF DIFFERENT WEATHER TO THAT PORTION OF THE COUNTY...FROM HEAVY SNOW
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE FURTHER EAST ACROSS IOWA AND MN. A BUSY WEATHER DAY
CONTINUES FOR THOSE FOLKS UP THERE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM HOWEVER...WE
FIND THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AND DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION (INCLUDING THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA).
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL
BY THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING BETWEEN 700-600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE MOVING OR
EVOLVING MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY REACHING LOWS AROUND SUNRISE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH OF
I-4...AND THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT...PROVIDES A
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG
WITH LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE ARE BOTH POINTING TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...HOWEVER...
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY TO NAVIGATE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAVE ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
FOR THE PREFERRED LOCATIONS WITH THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE FOR DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC PROTECTION
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND GENERALLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ALMOST A COPY OF THURSDAY WITH SUCH A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC SETUP. JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE (IF ANY) TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...SO UPDRAFTS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE AND CUMULUS FIELD WILL
HAVE ISSUES WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE MOST PRONE TO INLAND PENETRATION TO THE NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY WHERE THE GRADIENT IS LIGHTEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.MID TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
EXPECTED LATE DAY SEA BREEZE MERGER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST LOCALES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COOLER
LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS SHOWING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
PENINSULA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN ENSUE OFF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PULLING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION. HIGHER RAIN PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE A DRIER AIRMASS WORK BACK INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF GROUND FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VIS MENTION IN AT THE NORMALLY MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
KLAL AND KPGD. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE FOG MENTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE EVENING TAF PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE IN LOWERED VISIBILITY
INCREASES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THAT
WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON WATERS BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND TARPON
SPRINGS TONIGHT AS AN EASTERLY SURGE SETS UP...DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLD INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXTENDED DURATIONS OF LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED EITHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES EXIST BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY INLAND
FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL...A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AWAY
FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED...
HOWEVER NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 90 72 88 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
SRQ 70 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 63 90 65 88 / 0 10 0 10
SPG 74 89 74 87 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...LEWIS
MID TERM/LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
312 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AREA REMAINS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A
CAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL NO THE NORTH
WHILE A COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE WEST...EXTENDING FROM DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN IA/ERN NE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CNTRL KS/WRN OK.
AS LONG AS THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CAPPED...THE
CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN WILL BE LIMITED. CURRENTLY...THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS INVOF THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WHERE SPC HAS
ISSUED THE FIRST WATCH OF THE DAY OVER WRN IA/NWRN MN. AS SFC
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S ANTICIPATE THAT THE CAP WILL
ERODE WITH TIME THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S...BUT EXPECT THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S THIS EVENING. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
NWRN IL. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TO...POTENTIALLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN IL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE MORE LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE
TONIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE LINEAR...AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST CONSOLIDATES INTO LINES. THUS...THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO BE ARND 1.7 INCHES. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM STEADILY PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SIGNIFICANT ECHO TRAINING. SO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
THE STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...CLEARING THE ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NWRN INDIANA COUNTIES.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BRISK SWLY FLOW
PERSISTING ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE ALL
THE WAY TO THE LAKE FRONT...BUT FOR SATURDAY...A WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP. WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE PREVAILING
SLY TO SWLY...SO...THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD ASSUME A NW-SE ORIENTATION
AND LIKELY ONLY MOVE INLAND FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. WHILE MUCH OF
THE CWA ENJOYS TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THE
LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS FROM CHICAGO TO WAUKEGAN SHOULD SEE HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME BY SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...SO...THE CHANCES FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOW. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST
TO RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO
SLOW THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND A STRUNG OUT FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WITH A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA RIGHT
ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...WILL CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST...TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE BACK
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKEFRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* A PERIOD OF SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN MORE
PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SEVERAL
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING AND THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE.
ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS BUT POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE GYY TERMINAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY INCREASING IN SPEED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME MID TEEN
GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...YIELDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...AT
TIMES POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT BRIEFLY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. STORMS LOOK LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE GUSTY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIVING THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVES FROM IOWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY IT WILL STEER A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING THOUGH AND ONLY BRIEFLY TURN
THE WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LAKE DURING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Temperatures warming nicely across the forecast area today, with
gusty south-southwest winds and mainly some high clouds. Mostly in
the mid 80s, although some 90 degree temperatures reported at
Champaign and Rantoul at 2 pm. Convection developing as expected
west of the Mississippi River, with one cluster over
Minnesota/Iowa along the warm front, and the second developing
over western Missouri just ahead of the cold front. Both fronts
are tied into a surface low over northeast Nebraska.
Initial forecast concerns are with thunderstorm trends through
Friday including severe threat, followed by timing of
showers/storms for much of the first half of next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night:
Latest mesoscale analysis showing CAPE`s of 1000-1500 J/kg over
the forecast area, with the cap eroding along the Mississippi
River. Latest HRRR has the storms reaching the Illinois River
valley by around 6 pm and I-57 toward 9-10 pm. Areas west of I-55
most likely to see any severe weather as the instability will be
decreasing by the time the storms make it further east. Hail/wind
remains the primary concern with the storms. Secondary line of
showers/storms immediately ahead of the front will begin to move
in after midnight, but think the severe threat will be be over by
that point.
Extent of overnight convection will dictate where the severe
threat is for Friday. Areas south of I-70 would be most likely as
the front comes in and with outflows from the earlier convection
around, but additional instability would likely have to come
during the afternoon in between periods of storms. Will mention
categorical PoP`s over 80% across the southeast third of the
forecast area through the day, with not the rain not fully moving
out of the southeast CWA until closer to midnight. Further west,
will largely go dry west of I-55 during the afternoon.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday:
Short period of dry weather on tap for Saturday as a narrow ridge
axis slides by, but next wave will be approaching from the Plains.
Have added some slight chance PoP`s in the afternoon west of I-55,
but main period of convection will develop Saturday night. Will
introduce likely PoP`s late Saturday night across about the
northwest 2/3 of the forecast area, lingering into Sunday across
the north as remnants of an MCS move across the area.
The forecast from Sunday night into Monday night is more of a
challenge. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF or Canadian
models by surging a cold front through the area Monday night,
while the latter models are close to 24 hours slower. This slower
solution would keep a good part of Sunday night and Monday dry.
This appears to be tied into phasing of the long wave trough across
the Rockies Sunday night, with the GFS featuring a more
progressive wave and the ECMWF cutting off a low over the northern
Dakotas for a time early next week. Am trending the blended model
grids on the slower side, but have not completely eliminated any
PoP`s Monday/Tuesday.
Deep upper trough over the central U.S. to provide a period of
cooler weather for the middle of the week. Will see highs only in
the 60s much of the Tuesday-Thursday period.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 104 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Timing of convection remains tricky later today and tonight as
short-term model solutions are not in good agreement. 14z HRRR
features a broken line of thunderstorms coming into the Illinois
River Valley by around 00z, then steadily pushes it eastward to
I-57 by 04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing with
regards to precip onset, but then shows widespread showers/thunder
continuing across the entire area throughout the night into Friday
morning. With 40-45kt 850mb jet currently focused across the
Plains expected to shift eastward into Illinois tonight, think the
wetter NAM may be the way to go. As such, think current convection
approaching the Ozarks will spread northeastward into central
Illinois this evening, then persist overnight as low-level jet
strengthens. Based on NAM forecast soundings and cross-sections,
will introduce predominant rain with VCTS between 01z and 04z.
Ceilings will initially be VFR, but will drop into the MVFR
category after midnight, then remain there through 18z Fri.
Overnight rain/thunder area will gradually shift eastward and exit
the TAF sites between 13z and 16z.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1058 AM CDT
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID EVE AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S-LOWER 80S
TEMPS AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ASCENT WITHIN AN ELONGATED DEEP MOIST TONGUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BLOSSOMING IN
COVERAGE OR RAPID PROGRESSION EAST IN OUR AREA...AND EVEN THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER. FORCING WILL IMPROVE IN
TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE MIDWEST...AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES SEEN UPSTREAM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TRANSLATE NEAR THE AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE LOOKED AT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MO...EASTERN IA...AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN IL LOOK TO LIMIT RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY IS THOUGHT TO BE WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVE. IF INDEED THAT IS THE CASE...THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE INTO OUR AREA
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE FACT THE DEEPER SHEAR ARRIVES LATER INTO
THE NIGHT AGAINST THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY...WITH THE LARGEST SURROUNDING
PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE RING-O-FIRE WAS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH INTO IOWA...THEN TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
ORIENTATION OUTLINES THE 500MB RIDGE...WHICH PLACES NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN SOLIDLY IN THE CAPPED/WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH
THAT BEING SAID...THE TREND HAS BEEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING IN THE
DIRECTION THAT THE RIDGING OVERHEAD MAY SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY THRU
MIDDAY...WHICH COULD FURTHER DELAY THE MORE OPTIMAL INSTABILITY FROM
ARRIVING OR LATER INTO THE AFTN/EVE. IT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO REMAIN DRY THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING.
HI-RES 4KM GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE CONSERVATIVE...AND HOLDS THE ENTIRE
CWFA DRY THRU 00Z. LOCAL ARW8KM TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
AND SLOWLY BRINGS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTN...WITH THE WESTERN CWFA POSSIBLY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 21Z. A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ANTICIPATE THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO
DISSOLVE ARND 18Z FOR THE FAR WESTERN IL AREAS. SO THE STEADY TREND
IN INCREASING POPS FROM 18Z THRU THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE SPC HAS PLACED THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THRU THIS EVENING...ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL STEADILY PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM
AFTN HEATING THAT ADDTL SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORTUNATELY THE LLVL WINDS APPEARS TO
FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THUS NOT INDICATING ANY STORMS LINGERING
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA LONG.
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND SHUD
QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPR 70S BY MIDDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID
80S THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AFTN HIGHS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE...WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF CLIMB.
THEN FOR TONIGHT CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIP WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPS
FROM COOLING MUCH...SO HAVE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING...MEDIUM.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI MORNING WILL BE SLOWLY
WORKING EAST INTO MID-MISSOURI VALLEY FRI AFTN. EXPECT ONGOING
PRECIP ALONG THE WEAK SFC FEATURE...AND MOIST AXIS THAT WILL STRETCH
OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN EARLY FRI. THE MID-LVL FLOW DOES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH SHUD PROVIDE A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. AT THIS TIME EXPECT LIKELY SHRA/TSRA THRU 15Z...THEN MOISTURE
QUICKLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE BETTER MID-LVL FORCING STILL
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI
MIDDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THEN BY FRI NGT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP LATE FRI
EVENING. TEMPS FRI WILL START MILD AND LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES. THEN TEMPS FRI NGT SHUD RADIATE INTO
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR FRI
NGT...HOWEVER COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADD THIS IN IF THE DRY AIR IS A
BIT MORE SLUGGISH TO ARRIVE.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP
SAT...HOWEVER CURRENTLY SAT SHUD END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THEN A
MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE SAT EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE REGION. OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST IDEAL WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND SUNNY SKIES.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS FRI/SAT...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION FRI...MEDIUM/HIGH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
DISSOLVING THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR
ALASKA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED FEATURE OR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MON. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SOLUTION...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TREND BACK TOWARDS LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* A PERIOD OF SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN MORE
PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SEVERAL
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING AND THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE.
ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS BUT POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING THE GYY TERMINAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY INCREASING IN SPEED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME MID TEEN
GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...YIELDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...AT
TIMES POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT BRIEFLY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. STORMS LOOK LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE GUSTY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIVING THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVES FROM IOWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY IT WILL STEER A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING THOUGH AND ONLY BRIEFLY TURN
THE WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LAKE DURING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
104 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
15z/10am surface chart shows low pressure over southern Nebraska,
with warm frontal boundary arcing northeastward into the southern
Great Lakes. The low is expected to lift into southern Minnesota
later today, pulling a cold front/dry line into western sections
of Iowa and Missouri by early evening. Convection will develop
along this boundary during the afternoon, then will gradually
spread eastward into Illinois tonight. 13z HRRR suggests a broken
line of thunderstorms may reach the far western KILX CWA by around
6 PM, with storms pushing eastward toward I-55 by mid-evening.
Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing, albeit slightly faster.
Given current capped airmass across much of the warm sector, think
bulk of the convection will remain west of the KILX CWA today.
Going forecast features chance POPs along/west of I-55 late this
afternoon and this trend still looks good, therefore no zone
update is planned at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 104 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Timing of convection remains tricky later today and tonight as
short-term model solutions are not in good agreement. 14z HRRR
features a broken line of thunderstorms coming into the Illinois
River Valley by around 00z, then steadily pushes it eastward to
I-57 by 04z. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing with
regards to precip onset, but then shows widespread showers/thunder
continuing across the entire area throughout the night into Friday
morning. With 40-45kt 850mb jet currently focused across the
Plains expected to shift eastward into Illinois tonight, think the
wetter NAM may be the way to go. As such, think current convection
approaching the Ozarks will spread northeastward into central
Illinois this evening, then persist overnight as low-level jet
strengthens. Based on NAM forecast soundings and cross-sections,
will introduce predominant rain with VCTS between 01z and 04z.
Ceilings will initially be VFR, but will drop into the MVFR
category after midnight, then remain there through 18z Fri.
Overnight rain/thunder area will gradually shift eastward and exit
the TAF sites between 13z and 16z.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
06z surface map indicated main 998mb low pressure wave developing
over western KS. East of the low broad southerly winds brought Gulf
moisture and 60s dewpoints as far north as IA. Warm sector temps
were still in the lower 70s locally as of 2 AM. Aloft, water vapor
imagery indicated a significant mid level wave over the central
Rockies with several smaller shortwaves ahead of this feature
producing clusters of t-storms from the Plains into the upper
Midwest.
Will introduce a low pop for isolated thunderstorms this
morning mainly west of the IL River, as a couple weak shortwaves
lifting through MO has already sparked showers west of Quincy and
farther south towards the Ozarks. Hi- res models suggest this activity
could affect western areas through 15-16z. Otherwise much of the
day should remain dry with southerly flow producing more
unseasonably warm temps with highs expected in the mid 80s. As the
upper trough progresses east lift increases across the west during
the mid to late afternoon and could see some more isolated to
scattered storms. Strongest convection through late
afternoon/early evening should be tied to lift ahead of the cold
front across IA/MO, and as instability wanes during the evening a
general weakening trend is expected as this pushes into the CWA.
Still enough elevated instability and 25-30 kts of bulk shear for
some organization and isolated stronger cores and a low severe
threat mainly west of I-55 through late evening. Several shortwaves
tracking through overnight in concert with lift ahead of the front
will produce rounds of showers and storms and have raised pops to
categorical with a general half inch QPF.
As the front slows across the CWA early Friday, the potential is
for convection to redevelop mainly across the eastern half during
the afternoon. If skies can clear after morning activity,
instability and better shear profiles suggest severe convection
will be possible with damaging winds and hail. Again much will be
dependent on convective debris/clear out.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
A brief round of surface ridging brings dry and mild conditions
for Saturday. The pattern appears to turn active again on Saturday
night, and continues through early next week as a trough to our
west sets up low pressure over the Plains, and surface boundary
wavers across the Midwest. Have kept pops in the chance category
as uncertainty still remains on where the front sets up, with the
EC still favoring areas farther to the northwest. At any rate
higher pops will be associated with an eventual cold frontal
passage in the Monday (GFS) or Monday night/early Tuesday (EC)
timeframe. While temperatures will remain above normal ahead of
this front, a major pattern change looks to take place through mid
week with significant troughing bringing below normal temps back
to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1107 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1058 AM CDT
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID EVE AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S-LOWER 80S
TEMPS AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ASCENT WITHIN AN ELONGATED DEEP MOIST TONGUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BLOSSOMING IN
COVERAGE OR RAPID PROGRESSION EAST IN OUR AREA...AND EVEN THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER. FORCING WILL IMPROVE IN
TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE MIDWEST...AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES SEEN UPSTREAM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TRANSLATE NEAR THE AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE LOOKED AT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MO...EASTERN IA...AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN IL LOOK TO LIMIT RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY IS THOUGHT TO BE WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVE. IF INDEED THAT IS THE CASE...THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE INTO OUR AREA
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE FACT THE DEEPER SHEAR ARRIVES LATER INTO
THE NIGHT AGAINST THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
320 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY...WITH THE LARGEST SURROUNDING
PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE RING-O-FIRE WAS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STRETCHING NORTH INTO IOWA...THEN TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
ORIENTATION OUTLINES THE 500MB RIDGE...WHICH PLACES NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN SOLIDLY IN THE CAPPED/WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH
THAT BEING SAID...THE TREND HAS BEEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING IN THE
DIRECTION THAT THE RIDGING OVERHEAD MAY SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY THRU
MIDDAY...WHICH COULD FURTHER DELAY THE MORE OPTIMAL INSTABILITY FROM
ARRIVING OR LATER INTO THE AFTN/EVE. IT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO REMAIN DRY THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING.
HI-RES 4KM GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE CONSERVATIVE...AND HOLDS THE ENTIRE
CWFA DRY THRU 00Z. LOCAL ARW8KM TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
AND SLOWLY BRINGS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTN...WITH THE WESTERN CWFA POSSIBLY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 21Z. A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ANTICIPATE THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO
DISSOLVE ARND 18Z FOR THE FAR WESTERN IL AREAS. SO THE STEADY TREND
IN INCREASING POPS FROM 18Z THRU THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE SPC HAS PLACED THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE THRU THIS EVENING...ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL STEADILY PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM
AFTN HEATING THAT ADDTL SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORTUNATELY THE LLVL WINDS APPEARS TO
FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THUS NOT INDICATING ANY STORMS LINGERING
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA LONG.
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND SHUD
QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPR 70S BY MIDDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID
80S THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AFTN HIGHS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE...WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF CLIMB.
THEN FOR TONIGHT CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIP WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPS
FROM COOLING MUCH...SO HAVE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING...MEDIUM.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI MORNING WILL BE SLOWLY
WORKING EAST INTO MID-MISSOURI VALLEY FRI AFTN. EXPECT ONGOING
PRECIP ALONG THE WEAK SFC FEATURE...AND MOIST AXIS THAT WILL STRETCH
OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN EARLY FRI. THE MID-LVL FLOW DOES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH SHUD PROVIDE A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. AT THIS TIME EXPECT LIKELY SHRA/TSRA THRU 15Z...THEN MOISTURE
QUICKLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE BETTER MID-LVL FORCING STILL
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI
MIDDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THEN BY FRI NGT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP LATE FRI
EVENING. TEMPS FRI WILL START MILD AND LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES. THEN TEMPS FRI NGT SHUD RADIATE INTO
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR FRI
NGT...HOWEVER COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADD THIS IN IF THE DRY AIR IS A
BIT MORE SLUGGISH TO ARRIVE.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP
SAT...HOWEVER CURRENTLY SAT SHUD END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THEN A
MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE SAT EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE REGION. OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST IDEAL WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND SUNNY SKIES.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS FRI/SAT...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION FRI...MEDIUM/HIGH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
DISSOLVING THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR
ALASKA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED FEATURE OR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MON. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SOLUTION...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TREND BACK TOWARDS LOW/MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* A PERIOD OF SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
* MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST MOST
OF THIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS SO
HAVE REMAINED DRY WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IL LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AND DURATION HASN/T CHANGED
SO MAINTAINED 08Z TIMING AT ORD/MDW BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT LATE
AND CHANGES TO THIS TIMING ARE LIKELY AS TRENDS EMERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS PRECIP
ARRIVES...LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THIS MORNING...GUSTS MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20
KT RANGE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVELS MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD WHERE GUSTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 20 KTS TO MAYBE NEAR 30
KTS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE THAT STRONG WITH THIS
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE REGARDING THOSE SPEEDS/GUSTS ISN/T THAT
HIGH AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT
SLOWLY DIMINISH. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MEDIUM TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW ON TIMING AND DURATION.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
335 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TODAY
REACHING MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND THEN DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
REACHES JAMES BAY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EASTERLY WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF
30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THEN WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS STEADILY DIMINISHING.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY...SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
15z/10am surface chart shows low pressure over southern Nebraska,
with warm frontal boundary arcing northeastward into the southern
Great Lakes. The low is expected to lift into southern Minnesota
later today, pulling a cold front/dry line into western sections
of Iowa and Missouri by early evening. Convection will develop
along this boundary during the afternoon, then will gradually
spread eastward into Illinois tonight. 13z HRRR suggests a broken
line of thunderstorms may reach the far western KILX CWA by around
6 PM, with storms pushing eastward toward I-55 by mid-evening.
Meanwhile, the 12z NAM has similar timing, albeit slightly faster.
Given current capped airmass across much of the warm sector, think
bulk of the convection will remain west of the KILX CWA today.
Going forecast features chance POPs along/west of I-55 late this
afternoon and this trend still looks good, therefore no zone
update is planned at this time.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
will remain fairly high this morning as the low levels remain
drier than normal. However, some light showers/sprinkles will move
across the western half of the area and effect PIA/BMI/SPI and
possibly DEC. So have put VCSH in those 4 TAFs for about 4hrs this
morning. Then mid clouds around 12kft will prevail the rest of the
morning and afternoon. As the front gets closer and active,
thunderstorms will begin to move into the area. Models have
trended slower with the onset of pcpn and looks like that trend
could continue. However, still some uncertainty, so will have a
VCTS at all sites before more predominate pcpn storms arrive later
in the evening, and then continue during the overnight hours.
Winds will be southerly through the period, with gusts to around
22kts this morning and afternoon. 10-15kts will continue tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
06z surface map indicated main 998mb low pressure wave developing
over western KS. East of the low broad southerly winds brought Gulf
moisture and 60s dewpoints as far north as IA. Warm sector temps
were still in the lower 70s locally as of 2 AM. Aloft, water vapor
imagery indicated a significant mid level wave over the central
Rockies with several smaller shortwaves ahead of this feature
producing clusters of t-storms from the Plains into the upper
Midwest.
Will introduce a low pop for isolated thunderstorms this
morning mainly west of the IL River, as a couple weak shortwaves
lifting through MO has already sparked showers west of Quincy and
farther south towards the Ozarks. Hi- res models suggest this activity
could affect western areas through 15-16z. Otherwise much of the
day should remain dry with southerly flow producing more
unseasonably warm temps with highs expected in the mid 80s. As the
upper trough progresses east lift increases across the west during
the mid to late afternoon and could see some more isolated to
scattered storms. Strongest convection through late
afternoon/early evening should be tied to lift ahead of the cold
front across IA/MO, and as instability wanes during the evening a
general weakening trend is expected as this pushes into the CWA.
Still enough elevated instability and 25-30 kts of bulk shear for
some organization and isolated stronger cores and a low severe
threat mainly west of I-55 through late evening. Several shortwaves
tracking through overnight in concert with lift ahead of the front
will produce rounds of showers and storms and have raised pops to
categorical with a general half inch QPF.
As the front slows across the CWA early Friday, the potential is
for convection to redevelop mainly across the eastern half during
the afternoon. If skies can clear after morning activity,
instability and better shear profiles suggest severe convection
will be possible with damaging winds and hail. Again much will be
dependent on convective debris/clear out.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
A brief round of surface ridging brings dry and mild conditions
for Saturday. The pattern appears to turn active again on Saturday
night, and continues through early next week as a trough to our
west sets up low pressure over the Plains, and surface boundary
wavers across the Midwest. Have kept pops in the chance category
as uncertainty still remains on where the front sets up, with the
EC still favoring areas farther to the northwest. At any rate
higher pops will be associated with an eventual cold frontal
passage in the Monday (GFS) or Monday night/early Tuesday (EC)
timeframe. While temperatures will remain above normal ahead of
this front, a major pattern change looks to take place through mid
week with significant troughing bringing below normal temps back
to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...updated short term...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
An upper trough was fast approaching the region from the west with
-20 deg C 500 mb temperatures extending into the southern Rockies.
At the surface, a pacific cold front had pushed through the area
into east central Kansas and west central Oklahoma by early
afternoon. A surface dryline extended just ahead of the surface
front in west central Oklahoma. Northwest winds int he 10 to 20 knot
range ushered in cooler surface air, relegating surface heating to
the 60`s by mid afternoon from Hays to Garden city and Syracuse.
Farther east, Low 60`s dew points near Pratt and Medicine Lodge was
scoured out by the cold front leaving dew points in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Chances are greatest that most of the forecast area remains dry
tonight. The front has shifted far enough east that the HRRR model
solutions appear more believable than the NAM model`s solution of a
retreating dryline returning moisture and allowing moist deep
convection. The far west central Kansas counties such as Hamilton
and Stanton could see showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
evening associated with convective development over eastern
Colorado. Of the various HiRes models, the NMM cores suggest a PV
anomaly significant enough to produce showers on the backside of the
upper jet, mainly late tonight and overnight. Instability will be
minimal however and probabilities have been kept very low for the
overnight episode. Temperatures overnight should fall into the low 50s
and seen some 40s farther west where clearing is likely by 12
UTC.
Weak westerly downslope surface winds will develop on Friday as
surface high pressure spreads eastward across southeast Kansas
during the afternoon. Other than mid level clouds, mostly sunny
conditions should prevail based on model layer RH fields. The
downslope flow will promote adiabatic warming resulting in boundary
layer warm advection. Models are strongly aligned for highs in the
mid to upper 70s with only bias corrected solutions creating warmer
highs in the low 80s in the far southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
The medium range models continue to show a strong upper level
shortwave digging into the western states this weekend and moving
out into the plains by early next week. The ECMWF, GEM and UKMET
models have all been similar and tend to be slower and deeper with
this wave. The GFS has been more open and progressive with this wave
for several runs. However, it is showing a tendency in its
operational run...as well as some of the ensemble members...to be a
little slower and deeper.
Upper level westerly flow over the central High Plains on Friday
will gradually become more southwesterly by Saturday night as the
upper wave digs into the Intermountain West. As the upper wave
approaches on Sunday, a frontal boundary should moves southward into
western Kansas with a surface low pressure system developing along
the front. There are some model differences in the position of this
front during the day Sunday. The faster GFS has it through all of
western Kansas by later in the afternoon while the other models keep
it farther west. This will have significant impacts on daytime high
temperatures as well as where the best chance for thunderstorms will
be. Given the model tendencies, will keep the front farther west
with a fairly significant temperature gradient across southwest and
south central Kansas. The models show 60 degree dewpoints spreading
northward into the central Plains ahead of this front. We could see
an outbreak of severe storms along the front during the later
afternoon and early evening hours as stronger southwesterly flow
aloft moves into western Kansas.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday as the
upper trough continues to move out into the Plains but we should be
drying out by Monday night and Tuesday as the upper wave continues
east. Temperatures in Monday-Wednesday time period will be fairly
cool given the 850 millibar temperatures in the single digits.
Temperatures should moderate through the remainder of the extended
period as upper level heights build over the western and central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Dry conditions (VFR category) and northwest surface winds will
persist through the afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase by
late afternoon as a cold pool aloft advances toward the region,
however based will be generally above 10kft based on HRRR model
soundings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 77 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 43 78 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 44 79 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 45 80 48 86 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 43 78 48 80 / 20 10 0 0
P28 50 78 53 86 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
moving eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains
today setting up another round of thunderstorm development across
eastern and portions of central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
As the upper level system edges out of the Rockies, the surface low
across northwest Kansas is expected to lift northeastward into
Nebraska while and attendant dryline pushes east out of southwest
Kansas into central Kansas. With strong dynamic support aloft still
in place across the Central Plains, thunderstorms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon as it advances
across central Kansas. Surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) and
steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will provide enough
instability to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
into the evening hours. However, considering the placement of the
dryline, not to mention an advancing cold front pushing into western
Kansas Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to be confined
to south central Kansas and east. A few high based showers/storms
may be possible across southwest Kansas Thursday evening as colder
air begins to advect southward into the area steepening lapse
rates aloft while another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejects out
of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front begins pushing
through western Kansas this afternoon. Colder air surging southward
behind the front will lower H85 temperatures to the lower to mid
teens(C) across west central Kansas this afternoon to near 20C ahead
of the front across south central Kansas. Look for highs up into the
70s(F) this afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) still possible
across south central Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 40s(F)
tonight as much cooler air spills southward into western Kansas
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
The medium range models continue to show a strong upper level
shortwave digging into the western states this weekend and moving
out into the plains by early next week. The ECMWF, GEM and UKMET
models have all been similar and tend to be slower and deeper with
this wave. The GFS has been more open and progressive with this wave
for several runs. However, it is showing a tendency in its
operational run...as well as some of the ensemble members...to be a
little slower and deeper.
Upper level westerly flow over the central High Plains on Friday
will gradually become more southwesterly by Saturday night as the
upper wave digs into the Intermountain West. As the upper wave
approaches on Sunday, a frontal boundary should moves southward into
western Kansas with a surface low pressure system developing along
the front. There are some model differences in the position of this
front during the day Sunday. The faster GFS has it through all of
western Kansas by later in the afternoon while the other models keep
it farther west. This will have significant impacts on daytime high
temperatures as well as where the best chance for thunderstorms will
be. Given the model tendencies, will keep the front farther west
with a fairly significant temperature gradient across southwest and
south central Kansas. The models show 60 degree dewpoints spreading
northward into the central Plains ahead of this front. We could see
an outbreak of severe storms along the front during the later
afternoon and early evening hours as stronger southwesterly flow
aloft moves into western Kansas.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday as the
upper trough continues to move out into the Plains but we should be
drying out by Monday night and Tuesday as the upper wave continues
east. Temperatures in Monday-Wednesday time period will be fairly
cool given the 850 millibar temperatures in the single digits.
Temperatures should moderate through the remainder of the extended
period as upper level heights build over the western and central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Dry conditions (VFR category) and northwest surface winds will
persist through the afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase by
late afternoon as a cold pool aloft advances toward the region,
however based will be generally above 10kft based on HRRR model
soundings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 77 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 43 78 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 44 79 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 45 80 48 86 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 43 78 48 80 / 20 10 0 0
P28 50 78 53 86 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
moving eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains
today setting up another round of thunderstorm development across
eastern and portions of central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
As the upper level system edges out of the Rockies, the surface low
across northwest Kansas is expected to lift northeastward into
Nebraska while and attendant dryline pushes east out of southwest
Kansas into central Kansas. With strong dynamic support aloft still
in place across the Central Plains, thunderstorms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon as it advances
across central Kansas. Surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F) and
steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will provide enough
instability to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
into the evening hours. However, considering the placement of the
dryline, not to mention an advancing cold front pushing into western
Kansas Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to be confined
to south central Kansas and east. A few high based showers/storms
may be possible across southwest Kansas Thursday evening as colder
air begins to advect southward into the area steepening lapse
rates aloft while another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejects out
of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler today as a cold front begins pushing
through western Kansas this afternoon. Colder air surging southward
behind the front will lower H85 temperatures to the lower to mid
teens(C) across west central Kansas this afternoon to near 20C ahead
of the front across south central Kansas. Look for highs up into the
70s(F) this afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) still possible
across south central Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 40s(F)
tonight as much cooler air spills southward into western Kansas
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
As an upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley on
Friday the winds will back more to the west which will improve
downslope flow over the central high plains late week/early this
weekend. This continues to support a brief warming trend Friday
and Saturday, however a cold front moving across western Kansas
late Saturday will put an end to this warming trend. Precipitation
chances with the cold front on Saturday still appears to be
confined to northern Kansas based on location of the left exit
region of an upper level jet Saturday and warming 700mb
temperatures across southwest Kansas. Will therefore keep the
forecast for Saturday precipitation free given that the better
forcing will occur north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Another
area for evening convection Saturday will be along a dryline that
both the ECMWF and GFS place in central Kansas. At this time this
area convection is still forecast to be east of Stafford, Pratt,
and the Medicine lodge area.
By early Sunday morning the surface cold front will extend from
southeast Colorado into the south central Kansas based on the GFS
and ECMWF. This front will then remain nearly stationary through
Sunday night as the next upper level storm system approaches the
Central Rockies from the west. Warm air advection and low level
moisture convergence will improve along this surface boundary
Sunday afternoon and based on the late day instability the area
favorable for late day convection will be mainly across south
central Kansas. Precipitation will also be possible late Sunday
across northwest Kansas near a mid level baroclinic zone given
improving 700mb moisture and frontogenesis ahead of the upper
level trough. This area of improving precipitation chances is then
expected to spread southeast Sunday night into early Monday as
this mid level baroclinic zone crosses western Kansas and the
upper level trough exits the Rockies and Central High Plains.
As this next upper level trough moves east towards the Mid
Mississippi Valley late Monday the precipitation chances will end
from west to east. An area of high pressure at the surface will
also build across Kansas Monday night into Tuesday. Given clearing
skies and where the lighter winds will be early Tuesday morning
will favor trending the lows for Monday night across western
Kansas down some from the latest CRExtendFcst_Init.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
Dry conditions (VFR category) and northwet surface winds will
persist through the afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase by
late afternoon as a cold pool aloft advances toward the region,
however based will be generally above 10kft based on HRRR model
soundings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 76 49 82 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 41 77 49 80 / 20 0 0 10
EHA 42 79 48 84 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 43 79 50 84 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 40 76 50 79 / 20 10 10 10
P28 48 77 52 85 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON WEST SIDE OF H7 CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NE
COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE NE TO SW
ACROSS OUR CWA...AND TEMPS IN COLORADO UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. VERY LIGHT SHRA AND VIRGA HAVE BEEN
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS H5 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NW PART OF OUR CWA...AND
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN BY MIDDAY. ONGOING SHORT TERM
FORECAST MATCHES THIS TREND...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY. COULDNT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
THIS OCCURRED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
TEMP PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR ALL LIQUID...WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE-800MB WIND MAX BEHIND THIS H7
LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 12Z. IF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45MPH). I AM ALSO CONCERNED THESE WINDS
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLIER THAN THIS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EASTERN MOVEMENT OF PRECIP...AND BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WIND MAX THERE MAY NOT BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE H7 LOW
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND
ADJUST AS NECESSARY...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE
HIGHLIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BESIDES BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BACK THE THE REGION THIS COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAX MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THIS COULD AI DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL LOOK LIKE
THE COULD COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD REALLY BE SO NO
HIGHLIGHT PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE I HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MENTION OF PRECIP IN THESE PERIODS WOULD BE WITH
A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS. I DELAYED HIGHER CHANCE POPS TO SAT NIGHT
AND LIMITED BEST CHANCE TO THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S RETURNING SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AND PUSH EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION...DEPTH...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DOES NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MOVES
EAST MORE QUICKLY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CWA SHOULD BE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST WITH THE CWA LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. ASSIGNED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW
SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BECOME LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S EAST SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WILL CALM DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES IN
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...REACHING
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
COOL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
221 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
CONVECTION AND FOG ARE THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EJECTING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH IOWA...KANSAS...AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 996MB LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN KANSAS IS
STRETCHING A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WARM MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
FARTHER ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS PULLING WARM
AIR (10C TEMPS OVER THE U.P.) AND MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS OF 6-10C)
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS REGION AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS PAST EVENING OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SHIFTED EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NOW
IS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA (ON AXIS OF 700MB MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION) AND HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
THERE WAS ONE CELL NEAR GRAND MARAIS THAT WAS CLOSE TO BECOMING
SEVERE). THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AS THAT 700MB AXIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION
IS ONGOING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
IN LINE WITH THE CORFIDI AND STORM MOTION VECTORS. THAT CONVECTION
(WHICH IS FEEDING OFF AN AXIS OF BETTER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 925MB WARM FRONT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES) SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE FEED TO THE STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. THAT HAS LED TO THE PULSE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE OCCASIONAL PULSES
THAT MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P. OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2/3RDS OF AN INCH IN THE KEWEENAW
LED TO A QUICK RISE ON THE TRAP ROCK RIVER (OVER A FOOT IN A COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD TO AID THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF). BACK TO THE WISCONSIN
CONVECTION...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CWA (LIKELY
REACHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER BETWEEN IRON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 10Z). HAVE SHOWN HIGHER POPS AS THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.P. BUT NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...AS
I WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING AS IT PULLS A LITTLE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE BETTERN 850MB MOISTURE/FORCING. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL (COULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE).
BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE EXACT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATING THE STRONG WAA REGIME WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME CAPPING AND THUS WOULD EXPECT SOME DIMINISHMENT IN
THE ACTIVITY (OR EVEN ENDING) TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA IN THE POPS...BUT STILL LEFT A PERIOD OF CHANCES OR
SLIGHT CHANCES TO ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE. ON LAST ITEM TO NOTE...IS
THE 00Z SPC WRF (WHICH IS HANDLING THIS AREAS CONVECTION DECENTLY)
ALONG WITH THE 00Z NCEP WRFS AND RECENT HRRR ARE INDICATING
THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA HOLDING TOGETHER AND AFFECTING THE
AREA (CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA) TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LASTEST
LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THAT OCCURRING BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
HIGHS TODAY ARE TRICKY...AS MIXING DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN
WISCONSIN. THOUGHT CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WOULD LIMIT WARMING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP THE TEMPS FROM REALLY WARMING UP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN
CLEARING THINGS OUT AND LEADING TO GOOD MIXING (WHICH SHOOTS TEMPS
UP OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL INTO THE 70S AND SOME SPOTS AROUND
80). OPTED TO KEEP VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE
WEST AND KEPT VALUES COOLER (UPPER 40S AND 50S) IMMEDIATELY DOWN
WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW DUE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR) DUE TO THE COOL LAKE TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS.
NOW FOR THE NEXT WAVE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/S FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AFTER THE STRENGTHENING
CAP LIMITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO KICK OFF IN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. THEN WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45KTS...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS SEEM TO HAVE DELAYED THE INITIATION A
LITTLE BIT AND THUS HAVE PUSHED THE INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH END
LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITES BACK OF COUPLE HOURS. STILL EXPECT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE AREA BY MID/LATE EVENING AND THEN
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED OFF MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA AS THE STORMS RACE OUT AHEAD
OF THEIR INITIAL SUPPORT AND MODELS INDICATING INSTABILITY
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH IF THE STORMS COULD REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE...THE SPEED OF STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT.
FINALLY...THERE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GENERAL
IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG ON THE GREAT LAKES SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS. COULD SEE IT BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WHEN IT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
FRI WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NAM
SHOWS THE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT ON FRI MORNING
AND A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME
THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. WRAPAROUND
PART OF STORM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SAT NIGHT LATE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN. THE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES STARTS TO PULL OUT INTO THE PLAINS
12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO 12Z TUE WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES INTO 12Z WED WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WET AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY REAL DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THERE MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION
TIMING/LOCATION ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL OFF THE GREAT
LAKES ONCE CONVECTION ENSUES. EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT HAVE LIFTED SO EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN A BRIEF
SHOWER AT KSAW...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD
BE LIMITED BY MID-LVL CAP OF DRIER/WARMER AIR. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THIS EVENING AS A LOW MOVES
THROUGH MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND RACE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AROUND
45MPH. THE WARM MOIST AIR AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KCMX AND KSAW IN E TO SE
ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WINDS STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES
SEEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE TODAY. BUT AS MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND
WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT
PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK/ IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING
THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK
RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN
INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1257 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...WET WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF HOLLAND. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. BASED ON THAT IT WOULD TAKE
AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION THROUGH 4
PM SO I WOULD SEE THIS AS A MID DECK SHOWER EVENT. I PUT 20-30 PCT
POP IN THE GRIDS TO COVER IT.
IT LOOKS GREAT FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY TOO... THE WARM FRONT IS
NEAR I-96 AND WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY 2-3 PM. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MI MAY
AFFECT THE KMKG TERMINAL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO MVFR IN THAT TIME FRAME AS STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES IN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAGES AT SEVERAL GRAND RIVER GAGES HAVE ALREADY CRESTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING/S LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND NOW SHOW A STEADY
FALL. THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN SAW SOME AREAS OF RAIN LAST NIGHT
WHICH HAS BROUGHT A MINOR ONGOING SPIKE TO THE MOUNT PLEASANT GAGE.
WE ARE MONITORING THE EVART GAGE WITH THE USGS FOR POSSIBLE DATA
QUALITY ISSUES AFTER STORMS THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THIS...THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD AND WE/LL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF HOLLAND. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. BASED ON THAT IT WOULD TAKE
AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION THROUGH 4
PM SO I WOULD SEE THIS AS A MID DECK SHOWER EVENT. I PUT 20-30 PCT
POP IN THE GRIDS TO COVER IT.
IT LOOKS GREAT FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY TOO... THE WARM FRONT IS
NEAR I-96 AND WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY 2-3 PM. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THINKING TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TSRA HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SFC OBS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY PLACING A
SIGNIFICANT CAP ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY DESPITE 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND LI/S AROUND -6C. THERE JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO BE A SHORT
WAVE AVAILABLE TO HELP BREAK THE CAP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT. THE TSRA THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS RATHER STORMY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO BE A BIT LESS INTENSE FRIDAY AND SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 50 KT LLJ
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY DON/T COINCIDE. THUS CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA LIKELY
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ACTUALLY IT
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY... WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND OF MAY 16-18.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TYPICALLY THINGS
ARE SLOWER IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO FROPA MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MI MAY
AFFECT THE KMKG TERMINAL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO MVFR IN THAT TIME FRAME AS STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES IN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
WE CANCELED THE SCA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT FELL IN A SWATHE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IONIA COUNTY. REPORTS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY. RIVERS IN AND
AROUND THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA HAVE BRIEFLY SPIKED UP...BUT GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (NOT BASIN WIDE) THINKING WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ISSUES FROM THIS INITIAL BURST IN TERMS OF
ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT COULD STILL END
UP BEING AROUND AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THINKING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM HERE ON OUT WILL COME THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING BIG RIVER ISSUES IN TERMS OF WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR RIVER POINTS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
601 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHRA/TSRA trends are the primary concern this evening, and are
remaining very difficult to pin down. Early on, N-S band of
showers and thunderstorms now moving into central MO will work its
way east during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
Have leaned heavily on the HRRR runs for trends over the next 3-6
hours, as it continues to provide superior guidance on the trends
with this area of convection. Passage of the shortwave fueling
this precip will likely cause area to diminish a bit in coverage
and intensity during the evening, but additional (and hard to
time) upstream shortwaves, as well as persistent WAA and
associated isentropic ascent, should generate additional shower
and thunderstorm activity during the late evening and overnight
hours in the warm sector. Precip threat (especially in our NW
counties) will also be driven by convection that forms along the
cold front and works its way east with time.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Overnight elevated SHRA/TSRA forced by the LLJ will probably be
ongoing at daybreak on Fri, at least over part of the CWA. As the
core of the LLJ shifts northeastward into IL/IN, the greatest
moisture convergence and forcing for pcpn will also shift out of
the CWA. Consequently, there should be a decrease in precipitation
coverage or perhaps even a lull during the mid to late morning
hours on Fri. The absence of widespread precipitation combined
with some breaks in the clouds should be sufficient for afternoon
destabilization across the southeastern one-half to one-third of
the CWA. This detail matters because a trough with a vort max in
its base will be approaching from the west. Large scale ascent
from DCVA as well as lift ahead of the cold front will likely
occur in an environment with H7-H5 lapse rates of 6-7.5 deg C/km
and 40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear as well as nearly
unidirectional wind profiles. These parameters are sufficient for
severe thunderstorms with hail and wind as the primary threats.
Although recent model runs all depict a solution where the cold
front moves through most of the CWA on Fri night and then stalls
in southern MO before lifting northward as a warm front on Sat,
the effective boundary might end up much farther south by Sat
morning depending on outflow boundaries from convection on Fri/Fri
night. If this occurs, then the temperature forecast for Sat may
be too warm. Shortwave ridging aloft is expected on Sat with a
compact vort max moving across southern MN, which is much farther
north than yesterday`s model runs. The H85 LLJ associated with the
vort max moving across MN could produce enough lift over the warm
front to support scattered SHRA/TSRA in MO/IL, especially if
forecast H7-H5 lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km are realized. SHRA/TSRA
are also possible on Sat night due to moisture convergence along a
strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
A new trough develops out west over the weekend, inducing surface
cyclogenesis over the plains and eventually sending another cold
front through MO/IL early next week. Models disagree on how
quickly the trough shifts eastward into the central CONUS, leading
to disagreements on how quickly the cold front moves through the
LSX CWA. It appears that there will be a period of northwest flow
or cyclonic flow during the middle of next week depending on how
the trough evolves. Expect cooler temperatures in such a pattern
with precip chances dependent on shortwaves and moisture
availability.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east this
evening. The rain will be moving out of KCOU soon, but persist at
KUIN through mid evening, and will soon move into the St. Louis
metro TAF sites and persist through 04-05Z. Expect MVFR
conditions with the rain, and some of the heavier cores could
briefly produce IFR visibilities. This band will then move out and
expect a period of dry and VFR conditions before another round of
showers and scattered thunderstorms moves through the area
overnight and early Friday morning. This will coincide with an
area of low MVFR ceilings that will persist through mid-late
morning before slowly improving to VFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and thunderstorms will move into the
terminal by 01Z, though scattered thunderstorms will be in the
area before then. Expect MVFR conditions with the rain. This first
area of rain will move out around 04Z, but then expect another
round of showers and scattered thunderstorms to move through the
terminal starting around 09Z. Low MVFR conditions are expected
with this second round that will persist after the rain ends. VFR
ceilings are not expected until midday. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop in the vicinity of KSTL tomorrow afternoon and then
move east of the airport by 00Z.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
300 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
SHRA/TSRA trends are the primary concern this evening, and are
remaining very difficult to pin down. Early on, N-S band of
showers and thunderstorms now moving into central MO will work its
way east during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
Have leaned heavily on the HRRR runs for trends over the next 3-6
hours, as it continues to provide superior guidance on the trends
with this area of convection. Passage of the shortwave fueling
this precip will likely cause area to diminish a bit in coverage
and intensity during the evening, but additional (and hard to
time) upstream shortwaves, as well as persistent WAA and
associated isentropic ascent, should generate additional shower
and thunderstorm activity during the late evening and overnight
hours in the warm sector. Precip threat (especially in our NW
counties) will also be driven by convection that forms along the
cold front and works its way east with time.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Overnight elevated SHRA/TSRA forced by the LLJ will probably be
ongoing at daybreak on Fri, at least over part of the CWA. As the
core of the LLJ shifts northeastward into IL/IN, the greatest
moisture convergence and forcing for pcpn will also shift out of
the CWA. Consequently, there should be a decrease in precipitation
coverage or perhaps even a lull during the mid to late morning
hours on Fri. The absence of widespread precipitation combined
with some breaks in the clouds should be sufficient for afternoon
destabilization across the southeastern one-half to one-third of
the CWA. This detail matters because a trough with a vort max in
its base will be approaching from the west. Large scale ascent
from DCVA as well as lift ahead of the cold front will likely
occur in an environment with H7-H5 lapse rates of 6-7.5 deg C/km
and 40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear as well as nearly
unidirectional wind profiles. These parameters are sufficient for
severe thunderstorms with hail and wind as the primary threats.
Although recent model runs all depict a solution where the cold
front moves through most of the CWA on Fri night and then stalls
in southern MO before lifting northward as a warm front on Sat,
the effective boundary might end up much farther south by Sat
morning depending on outflow boundaries from convection on Fri/Fri
night. If this occurs, then the temperature forecast for Sat may
be too warm. Shortwave ridging aloft is expected on Sat with a
compact vort max moving across southern MN, which is much farther
north than yesterday`s model runs. The H85 LLJ associated with the
vort max moving across MN could produce enough lift over the warm
front to support scattered SHRA/TSRA in MO/IL, especially if
forecast H7-H5 lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km are realized. SHRA/TSRA
are also possible on Sat night due to moisture convergence along a
strengthening southwesterly LLJ.
A new trough develops out west over the weekend, inducing surface
cyclogenesis over the plains and eventually sending another cold
front through MO/IL early next week. Models disagree on how
quickly the trough shifts eastward into the central CONUS, leading
to disagreements on how quickly the cold front moves through the
LSX CWA. It appears that there will be a period of northwest flow
or cyclonic flow during the middle of next week depending on how
the trough evolves. Expect cooler temperatures in such a pattern
with precip chances dependent on shortwaves and moisture
availability.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Have timed the arrival of SHRA/TSRA at all locations this afternoon
based on a combo of extrapolation of regional radar trends as well
as the last few HRRR runs, with the slightly lower conditions (IFR
vsbys, MVFR cigs) along and south of I-70 where the ams should be
able to realize its greatest (albeit modest) destabilization.
Forecast soundings do indicate lower ceilings developing in the
warm sector overnight, and this seems reasonable given cig trends in
the ARLATEX region late last night and earlier this morning. So,
have introduced prevailing MVFR cigs in the 06-09z time frame at
all locations. Greatest unknown may be timing of additional
showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, with
no clear cut trends of this subsequent activity showing up in the
latest guidance. Have attempted to utilize some broad scale model
consensus in introducing next round of activity during the late
night hours and tapering off early Friday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Upstream TSRA activity should arrive around
00z, with IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs in the stronger cells. As mentioned
in the primary aviation AFD, quite a bit of uncertainty on when
the next round of convection will arrive, but for now have gone
with the additional redevelopment during the predawn hours, along
with the development of MVFR cigs in the increasingly moist low
levels of the warm sector. Have ended the second round of
convection early Friday morning, and while there is certainly a
chance of more storms during the late morning and into the
afternoon along the cold front, exact timing and location of this
is still very uncertain at this point. Will refine the timing and
threat of convection with the cold front in later forecasts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1254 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Area of showers and thunderstorms over OK in advance of lead
shortwave should push northeast and effect about the W half of the
FA by 00z...with this trend supported by both extrapolation of
current activity as well as the last several HRRR runs. An uptick
in the intensity of the storms is certainly possible as some
breaks in the morning cloud cover will allow for some modest
destabilization of the AMS over the CWA.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Focus continues to be TSRA thru the period.
Ongoing storms will continue to move newd this morning, with more
development sw of the CWA shud move into the area. Question
remains if these storms will dissipate after sunrise, or if isod
storms will persist thru the morning hours. Regardless, storms are
expected to develop/expand as the dry line moves ewd. With
continued low level WAA and with upper air support, these storms
shud move ewd into the wrn portions of the CWA this afternoon and
overnight. The main question will be how the low level WAA and
cloud cover today will impact the thermal profile over the region.
With heights falling with the main trof approaching, am becoming
increasingly concerned that ongoing storms may not dissipate after
sunrise as these are high based storms. However, if ongoing storms
dissipate, believe mid level lapse rates across much of the
region will be rather steep with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg. Will have
a threat of primarily large hail, especially across wrn portions
of the CWA where more CAPE will be available this afternoon and
this evening.
As for temps, raised temps a couple of degrees since current temps
are still in the lower to mid 70s.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Not much change from the previous forecast.
The cdfnt briefly stalls across the region as the sfc low pulls
nwd thru the Great Lakes region. The fnt will be the focus for
storms as the upper trof moves thru the area. Storms shud be
ongoing at the beginning of the period, but shud move E of the
region during the morning. Questions regarding recovery behind the
first round of storms leads to uncertainty in potential for svr
storms later in the day. However, mdl solns suggest that with
strong WAA, recovery may occur quickly as the upper trof moves
into the region. This shud push the fnt s of the CWA allowing at
least the first half of Sat to remain dry. Mdls are showing a fast
moving system now bringing TSRA to at least the wrn counties late
in the afternoon and pushing ewd into the evening.
For Sun and beyond, pattern becomes more active as a sfc boundary
meanders across the region thru much of the extd period as one
system after another brings chances for precip to the area. With
lower heights progd, temps shud be slightly cooler, likely around
seasonal average. Mdls differ slightly on timing, but the middle
of next week shud be dry for a day or two as large sfc ridge
builds into the region.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Have timed the arrival of SHRA/TSRA at all locations this afternoon
based on a combo of extrapolation of regional radar trends as well
as the last few HRRR runs, with the slightly lower conditions (IFR
vsbys, MVFR cigs) along and south of I-70 where the ams should be
able to realize its greatest (albeit modest) destabilization.
Forecast soundings do indicate lower ceilings developing in the
warm sector overnight, and this seems reasonable given cig trends in
the ARLATEX region late last night and earlier this morning. So,
have introduced prevailing MVFR cigs in the 06-09z time frame at
all locations. Greatest unknown may be timing of additional
showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, with
no clear cut trends of this subsequent activity showing up in the
latest guidance. Have attempted to utilize some broad scale model
consensus in introducing next round of activity duing the late
night hours and tapering off early Friday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Upstream TSRA activity should arrive around
00z, with IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs in the stronger cells. As mentioned
in the primary aviation AFD, quite a bit of uncertainty on when
the next round of convection will arrive, but for now have gone
with the additional redevelopment during the predawn hours, along
with the development of MVFR cigs in the increasinly moist low
levels of the warm sector. Have ended the second round of
convection early Friday morning, and while there is certainly a
chance of more storms during the late morning and into the
afternoon along the cold front, exact timing and location of this
is still very uncertain at this point. Will refine the timing and
threat of convection with the cold front in later forecasts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Area of showers and thunderstorms over OK in advance of lead
shortwave should push northeast and effect about the W half of the
FA by 00z...with this trend supported by both extrapolation of
current activity as well as the last several HRRR runs. An uptick
in the intensity of the storms is certainly possible as some
breaks in the morning cloud cover will allow for some modest
destabilization of the AMS over the CWA.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Focus continues to be TSRA thru the period.
Ongoing storms will continue to move newd this morning, with more
development sw of the CWA shud move into the area. Question
remains if these storms will dissipate after sunrise, or if isod
storms will persist thru the morning hours. Regardless, storms are
expected to develop/expand as the dry line moves ewd. With
continued low level WAA and with upper air support, these storms
shud move ewd into the wrn portions of the CWA this afternoon and
overnight. The main question will be how the low level WAA and
cloud cover today will impact the thermal profile over the region.
With heights falling with the main trof approaching, am becoming
increasingly concerned that ongoing storms may not dissipate after
sunrise as these are high based storms. However, if ongoing storms
dissipate, believe mid level lapse rates across much of the
region will be rather steep with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg. Will have
a threat of primarily large hail, especially across wrn portions
of the CWA where more CAPE will be available this afternoon and
this evening.
As for temps, raised temps a couple of degrees since current temps
are still in the lower to mid 70s.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Not much change from the previous forecast.
The cdfnt briefly stalls across the region as the sfc low pulls
nwd thru the Great Lakes region. The fnt will be the focus for
storms as the upper trof moves thru the area. Storms shud be
ongoing at the beginning of the period, but shud move E of the
region during the morning. Questions regarding recovery behind the
first round of storms leads to uncertainty in potential for svr
storms later in the day. However, mdl solns suggest that with
strong WAA, recovery may occur quickly as the upper trof moves
into the region. This shud push the fnt s of the CWA allowing at
least the first half of Sat to remain dry. Mdls are showing a fast
moving system now bringing TSRA to at least the wrn counties late
in the afternoon and pushing ewd into the evening.
For Sun and beyond, pattern becomes more active as a sfc boundary
meanders across the region thru much of the extd period as one
system after another brings chances for precip to the area. With
lower heights progd, temps shud be slightly cooler, likely around
seasonal average. Mdls differ slightly on timing, but the middle
of next week shud be dry for a day or two as large sfc ridge
builds into the region.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu May 8 2014
Busy TAF prd with an upper level disturbance affecting the region over
the next 24-36 hrs bringing several chance for precip. Elevated lght
SHRAs will continue for the next several hrs before diminishing with
the demise of the nocturnal LLJ. Have a few more hrs of LLWS to account
for the LLJ. Also, have the precip threat this morning covered with
CSH. Should be VFR conditions for a good portion of the day before
TSTMs dvlp along and ahead of an approaching cold front across wrn MO
later this aftn. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing and placement
of storm initiation...but they are expected to move into the KCOU and
KUIN terminals either late this aftn or early this evng. This activity
is fcst to move east and affect the STL metro sites closer to midnight.
There should be a several hr window of thunder and then a few more hrs
of lght SHRAs before this round of precip comes to an end. The precip
is not expected to last all night...esp at the KCOU terminal Winds should
remain sthrly thru the prd with gusts dvlpng later this mrng and lasting
to early this evng.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected until tonight when a band of SHRAs/TSTMs is
expected to impact the terminal. Widely sctrd very lght SHRAs dot the
area this mrng and have accounted for this with VCSH. Winds will once
again gust from late this aftn to early this evng. Precip tonight should
be winding down by Friday mrng. There is the chance of another round
of TSTMs dvlpng near the terminal just beyond the end of this TAF prd.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
101 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MT THROUGH UT TO
AZ. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG EITHER BEHIND OR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 80KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE AND 95KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE AND EJECTING INTO NM/TX. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEB
TO NORTHEAST NEB TO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI/MI. 850MB DRYLINE
EXTENDED FROM TX BIG BEND THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...850MB DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 9-13C RANGE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH 20-25C 700-500MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES FROM UT/AZ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST
KS...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL IA...AND
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB INTO
CENTRAL SD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
850MB DRY SECTOR...ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ARC FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO NORTHEAST KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEB
BY MIDDAY...WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. GIVEN STRONG
FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-FIRE BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT/PSUEDO-DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
UNANIMOUS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY AROUND 18Z...AND THUS
WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CWA OR JUST EAST. NAM REMAINS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND 00Z 4KM WRF ALSO CAME IN FAST AND
KEEPS STORMS EAST OF THE AREA. BUT RAP...GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND
HINTS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MO RIVER AND WITHIN THE CWA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...DEVELOPING
AS SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...AND THINK STORMS WILL
EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...THINK MAIN RISK
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY GONE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR EVEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CANNOT ABSOLUTELY SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO TORNADOES...BUT
THINK LINEAR FORCING AND QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX MAY LIMIT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ONCE STORMS EXIT...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUIET AS DRY SLOT
PASSES ACROSS CWA....FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL
NEB...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWIPE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A
QUESTION...BUT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTS MENTION. THOSE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN HANDLING STALLING FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...KEEPING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BE WETTER...WARMER...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
COOLER...NOT QUITE AS WET...AND MORE STABLE. IN BOTH CASES...MODELS
SLIDE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COOL RAIN AREA POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDER IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS DROPPED THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP POPS IN FOR MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF PULLS PRECIP
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THAT
PERIOD ONWARD. GFS AND ECMWF SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WAVES DURING VARYING PERIODS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE WEAKLY FORCED AND POORLY RESOLVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXHIBIT NO CONSISTENCY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS. LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AT ALL THREE
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 23Z AS SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR OR
IFR CIGS AND VSBY WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ITO THE KOFK AREA THROUGH 22Z AND KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAFFING HAS BEEN REARRANGED AS OF 1030 AM. THIS FCSTR WILL BE
DOING THE ENTIRE FCST. WE HAVE SENT A TWO-MAN TEAM TO SRN SHERMAN
COUNTY TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAMAGE FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL.
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE...PRIMARILY TO SKY COVER AND POPS TO
BETTER DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOT OF
SUN FROM THE TRI-CITIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FCST IS NOW DRY
THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE 09Z SREF AND 13Z HI-RES RAP.
THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THE COOLER TEMPS AND SLOWER EXPECTED WARM-UP UNDER THE
STRATUS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE RAP SKY COVER TRIES TO
ERODE THE SE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
HEADING E AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING KEARNEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND FURTHER SHORT-TERM CLOUDIER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE FIRST OF THE 3 MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS START WITH
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE INVADING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GET TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD ONLY
REALIZE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-28 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH. THIRDLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT PATCHY LATE-SEASON FROST COULD TRY DEVELOPING VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED INTO
THE 34-36 RANGE...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP GIVEN THAT THE
LENGTH OF TIME WITH TEMPS THAT LOW IS FAIRLY BRIEF AND THAT
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP AROUND 5 IF NOT 10 MPH DURING THAT
TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RELEGATE ANY FROST TO LOW-
LYING...SHELTERED AREAS IF IT FORMS AS ALL...AND AGAIN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULDN/T SEE ANY FROST THREAT AT ALL DESPITE
THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPS.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AND STARTING WITH A BRIEF LOOK
BACK...IT WAS A SOMEWHAT MORE-ACTIVE-THAN-EXPECTED EVENING WITH
ONE PARTICULARLY SEVERE SUPERCELL PASSING ALONG A CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM DAWSON-HOWARD COUNTY...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM CLIPPED EASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OR
STRONG EVIDENCE OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PHOTOS SUGGEST GUSTNADOES MAY HAVE KICKED UP SOME BLOWING
DUST. STAY TUNED FOR LIKELY ADDITIONAL REPORTS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING WERE
WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO...BY FAR THE WORST OF THE
STORMS ONLY CLIPPED THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
COUNTIES REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AS OF 11Z/5 AM...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...AS ACTIVITY
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OF A
DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEB/CO/KS BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...SEPARATING PREVAILING NORTHERLY-EASTERLY
BREEZES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO ITS SOUTH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR KS ZONES. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND
WHETHER HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...AS THE
RESOUNDING MESSAGE OF MOST MODELS IS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH ITS CENTER REACHING
NORTHERN SD BY SUNSET...WHILE A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES UP INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY...REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY...AND
SOUTHWEST MN BY SUNSET. AS THIS LOW PASSES BY...BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP COULD SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW SUSTAINED 28 MPH. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE PRESENT LACK OF FORCING WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT...THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 OR HIGHER J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AND ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO
RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS YET THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE IS LOOKING QUITE UNLIKELY...WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND THE LATE-MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN CASE THE VERY BEGINNING STAGES OF WHAT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CWA HAPPENS
TO CATCH THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
FORM...HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. BEYOND THE EARLY AFTERNOON 18Z TIME FRAME HOWEVER...ITS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT
STORMS...AND ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE VERY MARGINAL STORM THREAT...PROBABLY
THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY ALBEIT NOT GREAT WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MIGRATING FROM WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT GRADIENT AND HAVE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 50S
FAR WEST...NEAR-70 CENTRAL AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR EAST.
FORTUNATELY DESPITE THE WINDS...FIRE DANGER IS HELD IN CHECK BY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING UP IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL NEED CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS HAPPEN TO
CLIP THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN STEADILY DECREASING
BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...STEADY SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. BECAUSE WINDS ARE REALLY NEVER EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY DROP
BELOW 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR TEMP-CRASH...BUT
DID NUDGE DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR MID 30S FAR
NORTHWEST...NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FROST SETUP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BUT FELT A TOKEN PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COULDN/T HURT...ESPECIALLY
IF TEMPS HAPPEN TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY MIDDAY. AFTER STARTING OUT CHILLY IN THE MORNING...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR PCPN IN THE DRIER AIRMASS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHC
IN WAA WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADVANCING COOL FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY/MILD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SATURDAY PCPN CHCS RETURN BUT HOW MUCH
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHES OUR REGION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE PATTERN
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN THE
ROCKIES. UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE MEAN
FLOW WOULD LIFT THIS AREA OF PCPN NORTHEASTWARD AND OUR NW ZONES MAY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND THE LLVL JET IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FRONTAL POSITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.
HEADING INTO MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW CLOSES IN THE SC
ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
WITH THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW FILLING WITH TIME. OVERALL A
COOL...CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WILL SETTLE IN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. DID
LOWER SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE INIT...BUT
THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
REGION IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A GRADUAL TREND UP IN TEMPS
AROUND MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA IS DRAGGING A MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS A 020-025 CEILINGS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO GRI. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE ERODING
AS IT APPROACHES GRI SO I AM GOING TO START OFF WITH A SCT SKY.
IF A MVFR CEILING DOES SETUP IT SHOULD ONLY LINGER A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW MOVES TO THE NE AND DRAGS THE CLOUDS WITH IT.
TOMORROW MORNING I PUT A HINT OF SOME STRATUS. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT IT AND CURRENTLY WILL JUST PUT FEW IN COVERAGE. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 28KTS. THE WINDS WILL TAPER BACK DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. VIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BEDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1152 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM
LXN-ODX. RECEIVED A REPORT FROM AN OBSERVER AND ODX REPORTED -RA
AT 1622Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
STAFFING HAS BEEN REARRANGED AS OF 1030 AM. THIS FCSTR WILL BE
DOING THE ENTIRE FCST. WE HAVE SENT A TWO-MAN TEAM TO SRN SHERMAN
COUNTY TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAMAGE FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL.
SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-
TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE...PRIMARILY TO SKY COVER AND POPS TO
BETTER DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOT OF
SUN FROM THE TRI-CITIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FCST IS NOW DRY
THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE 09Z SREF AND 13Z HI-RES RAP.
THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THE COOLER TEMPS AND SLOWER EXPECTED WARM-UP UNDER THE
STRATUS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE RAP SKY COVER TRIES TO
ERODE THE SE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
HEADING E AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING KEARNEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND FURTHER SHORT-TERM CLOUDIER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE FIRST OF THE 3 MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS START WITH
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE INVADING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA. SECONDLY...HOW STRONG WILL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GET TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD ONLY
REALIZE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-28 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH. THIRDLY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT PATCHY LATE-SEASON FROST COULD TRY DEVELOPING VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED INTO
THE 34-36 RANGE...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP GIVEN THAT THE
LENGTH OF TIME WITH TEMPS THAT LOW IS FAIRLY BRIEF AND THAT
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP AROUND 5 IF NOT 10 MPH DURING THAT
TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY RELEGATE ANY FROST TO LOW-
LYING...SHELTERED AREAS IF IT FORMS AS ALL...AND AGAIN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULDN/T SEE ANY FROST THREAT AT ALL DESPITE
THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPS.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AND STARTING WITH A BRIEF LOOK
BACK...IT WAS A SOMEWHAT MORE-ACTIVE-THAN-EXPECTED EVENING WITH
ONE PARTICULARLY SEVERE SUPERCELL PASSING ALONG A CORRIDOR MAINLY
FROM DAWSON-HOWARD COUNTY...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM CLIPPED EASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OR
STRONG EVIDENCE OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PHOTOS SUGGEST GUSTNADOES MAY HAVE KICKED UP SOME BLOWING
DUST. STAY TUNED FOR LIKELY ADDITIONAL REPORTS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING WERE
WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO...BY FAR THE WORST OF THE
STORMS ONLY CLIPPED THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
EDGES OF THE CWA...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
COUNTIES REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AS OF 11Z/5 AM...THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...AS ACTIVITY
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OF A
DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEB/CO/KS BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...SEPARATING PREVAILING NORTHERLY-EASTERLY
BREEZES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO ITS SOUTH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR KS ZONES. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND
WHETHER HARDLY ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...AS THE
RESOUNDING MESSAGE OF MOST MODELS IS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH ITS CENTER REACHING
NORTHERN SD BY SUNSET...WHILE A TRAILING DISTURBANCE MOVES UP INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY...REACHING THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY...AND
SOUTHWEST MN BY SUNSET. AS THIS LOW PASSES BY...BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP COULD SEE A FEW PLACES BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW SUSTAINED 28 MPH. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DESPITE THE PRESENT LACK OF FORCING WITHIN
THE DRY SLOT...THERE IS STILL AROUND 1000 OR HIGHER J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AND ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO
RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS YET THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. WHILE
SEVERE IS LOOKING QUITE UNLIKELY...WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND THE LATE-MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN CASE THE VERY BEGINNING STAGES OF WHAT
WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE CWA HAPPENS
TO CATCH THE LOCAL AREA. SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
FORM...HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE. BEYOND THE EARLY AFTERNOON 18Z TIME FRAME HOWEVER...ITS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO SUPPORT
STORMS...AND ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST. ALONG WITH THE VERY MARGINAL STORM THREAT...PROBABLY
THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY ALBEIT NOT GREAT WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MIGRATING FROM WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT GRADIENT AND HAVE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 50S
FAR WEST...NEAR-70 CENTRAL AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR EAST.
FORTUNATELY DESPITE THE WINDS...FIRE DANGER IS HELD IN CHECK BY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING UP IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL NEED CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS HAPPEN TO
CLIP THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN STEADILY DECREASING
BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...STEADY SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. BECAUSE WINDS ARE REALLY NEVER EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY DROP
BELOW 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR TEMP-CRASH...BUT
DID NUDGE DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR MID 30S FAR
NORTHWEST...NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FROST SETUP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BUT FELT A TOKEN PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COULDN/T HURT...ESPECIALLY
IF TEMPS HAPPEN TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY MIDDAY. AFTER STARTING OUT CHILLY IN THE MORNING...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR PCPN IN THE DRIER AIRMASS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHC
IN WAA WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADVANCING COOL FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY/MILD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SATURDAY PCPN CHCS RETURN BUT HOW MUCH
PCPN ACTUALLY REACHES OUR REGION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE PATTERN
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN THE
ROCKIES. UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE MEAN
FLOW WOULD LIFT THIS AREA OF PCPN NORTHEASTWARD AND OUR NW ZONES MAY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND THE LLVL JET IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FRONTAL POSITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.
HEADING INTO MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW CLOSES IN THE SC
ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
WITH THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW FILLING WITH TIME. OVERALL A
COOL...CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WILL SETTLE IN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. DID
LOWER SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE INIT...BUT
THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
REGION IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A GRADUAL TREND UP IN TEMPS
AROUND MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION COULD STILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...IT HASN/T HAPPENED AS OF YET...AND THUS WILL GO WITH A
PREVAILING LOW-END VFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AND DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY SHOULD
REALLY BE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE AS A PRONOUNCED CHANGE IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED OCCURS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. IN
GENERAL...AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-DAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST
POTENTIAL OF MAINLY 30-35KT TARGETING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING AT OR BELOW 12KT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
130 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST POPS
AND CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN TO THE LATEST OBSERVED RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1825 UTC. EXPECT RAINFALL THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE CONFINED TO A LINE FROM
SELFRIDGE TO BISMARCK AND RUGBY AND POINTS EAST...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 16-17 UTC RAP/HRRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC BLENDED WITH THE 12-13 UTC
RAP WHICH HAS CAPTURED NEAR TO SHORT TERM POP TRENDS WELL THUS
FAR. DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
GRANT COUNTY...SOUTHERN MORTON AND WESTERN SIOUX COUNTIES WITH
ONLY A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO FILL IN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY WITH NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SHOWS UP ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LOOP JUST NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ARE JUST IMPINGING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LIFT
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15Z. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP A RENEWED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT BECOMES THE DOMINATE AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN ACCURATE WITH THE CURRENT DETAILS AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS AS
WELL AS A BLEND OF THE RAP/NAM/GFS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSITION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AT TIMES
TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HAVE FOLLOWED SPC
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE AND INCLUDED THESE
TWO COUNTIES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE RAIN STRICKEN AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. IN
THEN WEST AND NORTH TODAY...WHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL
DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR WEST WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORMAL COLD SPOT OF HETTINGER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN MONTANA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY. INDICATED SAID CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS IN RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST 04 UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEAR ERI THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE ARE MAKING FOR
QUITE VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPPING INVERSION PROGRESSING FARTHER
NORTHEAST WILL DROP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA AND LAKE
ERIE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AT CLE AND TOL. LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
CLE LAKESHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND
EAST OF THE CITY TOWARD KHZY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CLE ON SW INTO SW OHIO AND MUCH
OF INDIANA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT RESIDE FROM LBE NW TO GKJ. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER NW PA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE HRRR INDICATES A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH ABOUT 4-6 MILES INLAND AND MAY REACH A KCLE TO KHZY LINE BY
21 UTC. COOLER READING ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE DAY SCT CONVECTION THREAT FOR NW PA SHOULD DIE OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CROSSING THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THU NIGHT WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM
SIDE.
A DYING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THIS FRONT COULD START TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WEST AND FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING
EAST.
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST.
DRYER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SAT BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS LERI
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES IN SAT NIGHT SO LEFTOVER CONVECTION
SHOULD END IN THE SE BY LATE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLACEMENT IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER
WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW IN NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN MN VS THE GFS`S BROAD TROF
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LA. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS...BEING LESS AMPLIFIED IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...BRINGING IT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12-18
HOURS SLOWER. WILL FOLLOW A WPS/ECMWF MIX IN GRIDS WHICH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A WARMER TUESDAY. AS FOR POPS HAVE CHANCE NUMBERS MOST
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE BREEZE KEEPING THE WINDS NORTH AT ERI AND WILL LIKELY REACH
CLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ARE DOMINATED
BY A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15KT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN THE WEST AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AROUND
5-8K FT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THAT
COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10KT THE FOG/HAZE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL
DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH BEST MIXING
AT FDY/TOL WITH GUSTS AROUD 30KT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
TO OUR WEST AGAIN MONDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...JAMISON/TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEAR ERI THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE ARE MAKING FOR
QUITE VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPPING INVERSION PROGRESSING FARTHER
NORTHEAST WILL DROP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER NW PA AND LAKE
ERIE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AT CLE AND TOL. LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
CLE LAKESHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND
EAST OF THE CITY TOWARD KHZY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CLE ON SW INTO SW OHIO AND MUCH
OF INDIANA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THAT RESIDE FROM LBE NW TO GKJ. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER NW PA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE HRRR INDICATES A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH ABOUT 4-6 MILES INLAND AND MAY REACH A KCLE TO KHZY LINE BY
21 UTC. COOLER READING ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE DAY SCT CONVECTION THREAT FOR NW PA SHOULD DIE OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CROSSING THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THU NIGHT WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM
SIDE.
A DYING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THIS FRONT COULD START TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WEST AND FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING
EAST.
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
HELP TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST.
DRYER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SAT BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE ACROSS LERI
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES IN SAT NIGHT SO LEFTOVER CONVECTION
SHOULD END IN THE SE BY LATE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLACEMENT IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER
WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW IN NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW IN MN VS THE GFS`S BROAD TROF
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LA. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS...BEING LESS AMPLIFIED IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...BRINGING IT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS 12-18
HOURS SLOWER. WILL FOLLOW A WPS/ECMWF MIX IN GRIDS WHICH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A WARMER TUESDAY. AS FOR POPS HAVE CHANCE NUMBERS MOST
PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO EARLY TODAY. FRONT WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
ABOUT...BEING PUSHED AT TIMES BY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OR THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AT KERI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CU RULE SUGGESTS BKN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SHOWS 3500 TO 4KFT BASES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
TO OUR WEST AGAIN MONDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
441 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF WORTHINGTON AND
JACKSON MINNESOTA. EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE A BIT...BUT WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS RECOVERED INTO THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MISANALYSED. BOTH THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA
WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTH AND
EAST...ANY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z
WITH MAINLY SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...LOWS LOOK TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S FAR WEST TO MID 40S IN THE FAR EAST.
OTHER THAN SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEAST...THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FOR SURE ONE OF THE MOST QUIET PERIODS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING...
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AS WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MEAGER...AND WILL HAVE TO WORK INTO A FAIRLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE
TO START. WILL KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
AFTER 06Z...WITH BEST CHANCES SNEAKING IN LATE. THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER HEADING THROUGH THE
DAY AND HEADING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS PEAKING MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. ENOUGH STEEPENING
OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS TO THE SOUTH
OF MID LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH TO WARRANT A SOMEWHAT BETTER
MENTION OF THUNDER.
WAVE LIFTS PAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SHEARING NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY
IN THE EASTERN CWA...WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA.
SHOULD GET A DECENT DRY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING
WITH A FAIRLY SUBSIDENT QUADRANT OF UPPER WAVE INTO CWA. START TO
GET A DRASTIC DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE SIDED TOWARD MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION TO START WHICH MEANS HANGING BACK
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. SUCH A DEEPER SYSTEM PER ENSEMBLE HINTS AND ECMWF LOOKS
MORE FAVORED WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN SETTING UP AND THIS WILL START
TO REBUILD THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS STALLING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
BOUNDARY. MAIN TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PULSE OF MID LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYING
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOME ORIENTATION
OF TROUGHINESS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT TO TRULY DEFINE A MORE CERTAIN THREAT FOR RAINFALL. DOES
APPEAR THAT A PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID
MORNING FRIDAY...THEN LIFTING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AT POINT LOCATIONS SO
MINIMAL MENTION IN KFSD AND KSUX TAFS. ANY STORM WILL THEN
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. BEST OF THE
SHORTWAVES HAS PULLED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...BUT STILL A
COUPLE OF WEAK ONES TO GO. FIRST IS LEADING TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE NOT HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION FOR TODAY...IN PART DUE TO THE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT MOST MODELS DID NOT ANTICIPATE. HRRR
MODEL...THOUGH OFF SLIGHTLY ON POSITIONING MAY BE HANDLING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN DESTABILIZED REGION THE BEST.
12Z TEXAS TECH MODEL AS WELL AS THE RAP (TO A LESSER DEGREE)
DEVELOPED A SOLID LINE...BUT THAT DOESNT MATCH WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT THIS ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD.
COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE YET TO SEE CLEARING TO DEVELOP
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING THERE YET THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING CONVECTION TO PROGRESS/DEVELOP EASTWARD AS
WELL. THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...BUT CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
STRONG WINDS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BETTER SUITED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WILL APPROACH
THE AREA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS...COUPLED WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE IN
THE 3000 J/KG RANGE WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL END BY MIDDAY.
RIDGING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WELL ABOVE
NORMALS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KICKING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MORE THAN 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY
BY ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE EVENT OF A DELAY IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL FORCING...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN FOR NOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A LIMITED BUT EXISTENT DAMAGING WIND
OR HAIL THREAT. SO MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING THAT BROADENING OF POTENTIAL SEEMS THE BEST CHOICE FOR
THIS PACKAGE.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT
ACTUALLY ARRIVES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA HEADLINES. BOTH GFS AND
RAW ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THIS IS OVERDONE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
BE THAT COOL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO AOA NORMALS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 89 72 87 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
VICTORIA 73 88 72 87 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
LAREDO 75 95 75 99 78 / 20 40 20 10 10
ALICE 74 90 72 92 73 / 30 40 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 74 85 73 84 72 / 30 40 20 20 10
COTULLA 72 93 72 96 73 / 20 40 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 74 90 73 90 73 / 30 40 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 82 73 83 74 / 30 40 20 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SITES IS EXITING THE
REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. THINK WE
WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA OUT FOR METRO AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND START TO HEAT UP WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOP AND
AMENDMENTS WOULD BE NEEDED. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE AS THE OVERNIGHT PCPN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/FILL IN (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN COUNTIES).
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS IN HAND. HOPEFULLY WE
CAN GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL SYSTEM. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT VIS. ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB REVEALS
THE JET STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. 500 MB REVEALS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS BLEAK. 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET LOOKS LIMITED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO THE CONVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA (ALONG WITH WAA)
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LIFT.
THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 850 MB WINDS BACKING FROM SW TO SSE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED TO MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS HAS
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 900 J /KG AFTER THE CAP WEAKENS.
TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00" THIS AFTERNOON. GPS MET SITE SHOWING CURRENT
PWATS ABOVE 2.00" AT PHARR AND LAREDO TEXAS. A DRY LINE IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL WEST OF I-35.
FORECASTED PWAT VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT CURRENT DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB
IS CONCERNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD TROUBLE WITH
CONSISTENCY TO SAY THE LEAST. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW VERY LIGHT
RAIN (LOW QPF) TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THEY BOTH DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THOUGH AND HAD
TROUBLE CAPTURING ONGOING SQUALL LINE IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WIDESPREAD 60 POPS AND TAKING THE ABOVE INTO
CONSIDERATION HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK. STILL WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS/
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MODERATE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW QPF TOTALS.
NEW RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS THAT
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT BE IN PHASE.
MODEL RUNS EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO POINTED TO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS OF CURRENT. THE JET SPLIT
THAT HAD BEEN FORECASTED OVER THE AREA NOW IS GONE. THE JET ALSO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW AT 500 MB ALSO GOES
NEARLY ZONAL. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
1.80" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR NOW AS MODELS STILL LOOK TO
GET A HANDLE ON CURRENT SYSTEM. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 86 68 88 70 / 50 30 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 86 69 87 71 / 40 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 81 72 82 72 / 40 40 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN TURN TO THE N-NW EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THOUGH THE AREA.THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH WINDS
SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FETCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
AVIATION...
DRY VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS UPPER TROUGH COINCIDES WITH
SURFACE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z AS MAIN LIFT FROM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS BASE OF TROUGH STEERS
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DRYING
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WITH THAT NEXT LIFT. WE HAVE PULLED THE FINAL
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 12Z. A
DRY AND MILD DOWNSLOPING DAY WILL ENSUE WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY
LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE TRAILING LIFT MAY TEMPER SPEEDS SOMEWHAT.
ALSO...THE MAIN WIND CORE ALOFT SHOULD PASS MAINLY THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WILL TRAIL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT OF SORTS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WHICH IS MOSTLY
WHAT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL ACCOMPANY AN ANEMIC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL REESTABLISH SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPIKE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT ON A
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIGGING APPROACHING TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...DESPITE BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL WANTING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT EJECTS TOWARD AND OVER THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS
IS WARRANTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING.
A COOLDOWN CONTINUES TO LOOK IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGES OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY-MID WEEK THEN APPEARS TO BE SETUP FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE
OVER...BUT UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE STARVATION LOOKS IMMINENT AS THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT TRACKS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEAR THE
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES PASSING OVER THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREA-WIDE FOR TODAY. RED FLAG CONSIDERATIONS
WERE ALSO MADE TODAY BUT DECIDED TO FOREGO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
FOREMOST...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WINDS PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WE
BELIEVE FUELS WILL NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE AS THEY POTENTIALLY WERE THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE QUALITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WE EXPECT SOME UPWARD LIFT STILL TO BE
OCCURRING AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST HRRR AND WRF/NAM RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANYWAY...STILL NOT A GOOD DAY FOR
GENERAL BURNING BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM
RECENT DAYS. RMCQUEEN
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
POTENTIALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY ON THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 45 80 52 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 48 82 53 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 51 83 54 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 51 84 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 52 85 56 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 84 55 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 52 85 54 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 56 86 56 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 88 57 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 58 89 61 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT SNAKING ITS WAY
FROM JUST SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS TO VOLK FIELD TO WEST BEND
WISCONSIN. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN MAINLY IMPACTING CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. BUT WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF FRONT AT A SNAILS
PACE...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOX VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA EARLIER BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. THE
MAIN SHOW HOWEVER...IS OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST...CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVELING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR THE
WARM FRONT TO BOW NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING DUE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW. HOW FAR NORTH IS STILL QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY FLOW. SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
IOWA WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AT PEAK HEATING. THINKING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED FROM THIS WAVE...THAT COULD
HELP TO KEEP THE WARM FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICT. IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOP...40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TO A LESSER EXTENT.. THEN ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CONVECTION...IN THE FORM OF LINE
SEGMENTS...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
MID-EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE DECENT FORCING FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES. RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET GAUGE ON INSTABILITY SINCE
PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE EITHER CONTAMINATED WITH CONVECTION OR NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. BUT ELEVATED CAPES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 1K J/KG AND THATS A DECENT PLACE TO START. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND BULK SHEARS IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. CHANCES
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK BETTER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES TO THE EAST. THE STORMS SHOULD
EXIT LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
STILL POP UP ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM TONIGHT AND RANGE MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
MID-MORNING...AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING OCCUR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BENEATH THE DRY SLOT. THEN SHOULD SEE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION AT ABOUT 750MB...SO TONED BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SOME. AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
NOT ALL THAT COLD...AND KEPT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S
WEST TO NEAR 70 NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
LARGE SCALE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DEAMPLIFY THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPR RIDGING OCCURS
OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN EWD MOVING LONGWAVE TROF SHIFTS FROM
THE CNTRL CONUS TO E-CNTRL NORTH AMERICA. PCPN CHCS TO BE
ASSOCIATED FIRST WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTED NE FROM THE MEAN UPR
TROF DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITIH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF AND THE MAIN SFC CYCLONE/
CDFNT. TEMPS ARE FCST TO GO FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY...TO
BELOW NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS THE MEAN FLOW TURNS NW.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS OVER NRN WI SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END FRI EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO SRN
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...THE MDLS INDICATE A WEAK SFC RDG/RISING UPR
HEIGHTS WORKING EAST TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVRNGT
HOURS. DECREASING CLOUDS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS COULD SEND TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 35-40 DEG RANGE NORTH...LWR TO MID 40S SOUTH.
SFC RDG MOVES ACROSS NE WI SAT MORNING AND BE TO OUR EAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO EJECT EWD FROM THE DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND
ALREADY BY PUSHING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO CNTRL WI SAT AFTERNOON...
BUT WL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS ATTEMPT TO BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF TO THEN RACE ACROSS WI SAT NGT...THEREBY
BRINGING A CHC OF SHWRS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL RIGHT NOW AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO ACROSS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/PCPN IN THE VCNTY WL HOLD MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50 SOUTH. THERE
MAY NOW BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS SUNDAY MORNING AS ONCE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAY TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BETTER AND
FOCUS THE CHC POPS MORE IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS REACH THE MID TO UPR 60S (COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROF IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER
E-CNTRL NORTH AMERICA. PREVAILING SW WINDS WL BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO WI ON MON AND LIFT BOTH A SFC LOW AND WRMFNT NORTH INTO WI
MON AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MDL HERE AS THE GFS
APPEARS TO EJECT THE MAIN UPR TROF TOO QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS FOR NE WI ON MON WITH MAX
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
A STRONG UPR JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF BY MON
EVENING AND RACES NEWD THRU THE MIDWEST TO THE UPR MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES MON NGT. SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS TO CONT MON NGT AS THE
CDFNT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY TUE...THE UPR TROF DOES MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS...BUT THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A DRY SLOT...THUS TUE COULD END UP DRY. MAX TEMPS ON TUE TO AGAIN
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
PCPN CHCS TO THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID-WEEK AS THE UPR TROF
SHIFTS EAST AND SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE NOW NW FLOW ALOFT WL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO NE WI ON WED AND THU. TEMPS WL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS AND WL HAVE TO WATCH N-CNTRL WI WED NGT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT TIMING THESE PERIODS REMAINS VERY
DIFFICULT. LATEST THINKING BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS IS
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STORMS IS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM SO FAR TODAY DESPITE WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR INVADING THE REGION. WILL JUST KEEP A PATCHY MENTION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL A MORE CERTAIN TREND IS OBSERVED. &&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING NWD INTO THE AREA IS STARTING TO
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING. AT LEAST WE NOW
HAVE THE CREST OF THE SNOWMELT WATER THROUGH THE RIVERS...SO
CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF FROM RAINS IS GREATER THAN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT A SPECIFIC RGN OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING...BUT MOST LIKELY COULD OCCUR OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN FLOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1158 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
AT 4 AM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NORTH OF A GRANITE FALLS MINNESOTA TO MEDFORD WISCONSIN LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE 600 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS....MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF STRONG
700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AS
THE STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN COLLAPSING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCASIONAL HEAT BURSTS /ALBERT LEA AND AUSTIN MINNESOTA...AND
ALGONA CLARION IOWA/. IN ADDITION...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL
JUST TO OUR WEST...WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING THE STRONG WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THE HRRR AND ARW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SPC WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY AND THEN TAKES THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER OMAHA/S FORECAST AREA AND MOVES THEM
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ON
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
MESO MODELS HAVE NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...NAM...GFS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE 800
TO 650 MB CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DRYING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ASCENT OF
THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE NCAPE /FAT CAPE/ SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. EVEN THOUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DOES NOT FAVORABLE SUPERCELL SHEAR...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THERE TOO. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS TOO. THE HRRR AND ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HOP
WRF...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
VIGOROUS EARLY...AND THEN WANE AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY USES
UP MUCH OF THE CAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE DONE BY 10 PM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
ON FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING...AND INTERSTATE
94 IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...AND
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR SOME FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MN/IA BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PAST KRST/KLSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS TO KRST
LOOK TO BE FROM 21Z TO 02Z...AND 23Z THROUGH 04Z AT KLSE. FOR
NOW...KEEPING MVFR VISIBILITY AND LOW END VFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL
UPDATE AS CONVECTION FIRES UP TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WRAP AROUND MVFR CLOUDS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING BETWEEN GENOA AND LANSING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE