Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
634 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE VALLEYS AND COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN IS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS WHERE AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE. A TRACE TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500 FT. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...ALONG WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST SLOPES. INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY CREATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 6500 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED
WARMING POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW MOUNTAIN WAVES
REDEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WINDY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS THOSE
MOUNTAINS ARE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVES FROM PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW. A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION. THE LOCAL WRF CONTINUES
TO NOT SHOW TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVERALL COMPARED
TO THE CANSAC WRF...BUT IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING INCREASED INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS ARE AT
AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET...AND AREAS ABOVE 6500 FEET COULD SEE A
COUPLE INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMING
AND DRYING WILL OCCUR UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER
500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BECOME GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND WE MAY GET GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...DAY-TIME
HIGHS MAY REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
062000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN STRATUS LAYERS BETWEEN
2000 FT MSL AND 6000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 6SM IN SHOWERS. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK. A GUSTY
WEST SFC WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 07/0300Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
07/0300Z AND STRATUS BECOMING BKN-OVC WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL
AND TOPS 5000 FT MSL. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AFT 07/1700Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...AREAS OF SFC WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS IN ALONG
NORTH-SOUTH MTN CRESTS AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES AND PASSES...WITH
LOCAL 40 KNOT GUSTS IN SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS PARTS OF THE HIGH
DESERT. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE WINDS. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 3SM OR LESS IN BLDU. WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
100 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT IN BOTH
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS AND A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER
WATERS TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR INFO.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SH/JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
540 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS IN SAN BENITO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 2:46 PM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SAN
BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES ARE DUE TO HEATING OF THE DAY AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. HNX DOPPLER RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG MUSTANG RIDGE AND THE
CHALOME HILLS...JUST SOUTH OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. SHOWERS COULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THE SAN BENITO HILLS BUT RADAR BEAM BLOCKAGE
COULD BE HIDING THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AS HEATING OF THE DAY DISSIPATES AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.
HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY VALID THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR
HERNANDEZ CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LI VALUES
AROUND -2.8 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A
DRY LAYER FROM 5000 FEET TO THE SURFACE SO MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IF NOT VIRGA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PERFORMED WITH THE 1800Z NAM12 AND 1200Z GFS40
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE GFS40 DOES
NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:40 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
IN TO THE EVENING. PRESENTLY THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS 6 MB AND THE
SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS 3 MB. THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT WILL DRIFT DOWNWARD
ONLY A LITTLE BIT THROUGH WED MORNING...REACHING 5 MB. THE SFO-SAC
GRADIENT WILL DRIFT WEAKER VERY LATE TONIGHT THEN CLIMB BACK UP TO
4 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR IS FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR
IS POSSIBLE ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CLOSE TO 40
KNOTS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL ROUGHLY 9 PM.
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE SOMEWHAT AFTER 9 PM BUT NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON THIS AS THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE PLENTY WELL MIXED
THROUGH LATE EVENING. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS CONTINUES
THROUGH 9 PM LOCAL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO TOMORROW MAINTAINING MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE STEEP FRESH
SWELL. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER BOULDER AND
LARIMER COUNTIES AND THEN MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS WELD COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WELD COUNTY AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 930 PM.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LINGERING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. EVENING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP
ORGANIZE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW 2000+ JOULES OF CAPE ON
THE PLAINS BY 18Z. WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS TO INCLUDE HIGHER
POPS ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INGREDIENTS
SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER AREA...BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME DECREASE. ACROSS
PLAINS...EARLIER SURGE CREATED HAVOC WITH WINDS IN DENVER AREA.
WINDS NOW TRENDING EAST SOUTHEAST MOST AREAS AS WEAK CYCLONE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF DENVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASED A
BIT BEHIND SURGE WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT LOWER 50S
NEAR THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDERS. AIRMASS DRIER ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. FIRE
DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOW TEENS. AT THIS
TIME...NO DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...BUT
CAPES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN INCREASING. FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVING EAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND SOUTHWESTERLIES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND WYOMING BORDERS. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS THIS
AREA. ENOUGH SHEAR DURING THE EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING TOWARD COLORADO WITH
INCREASING ASCENT AND MOISTURE BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OROGRAPHICS WEAK...BUT COLD ENOUGH SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OVER THE PASSES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER AND WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
DENVER AND AKRON. AIRMASS LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS.
BY THE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER.
THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON LINE AT 21Z.
SHEAR WEAKER FURTHER WEST WITH LESS CAPE. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WITH HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOW TEENS.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PREIP TRENDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT ALONG
THE FRONT WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE. NAM SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES
FROM 1000-1500J/G ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG QG FORCING WILL
ALSO BE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROF WHICH WILL
SWING NORTHEAST FROM UTAH AND INTO NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
STILL APPEARS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL DO THE BEST WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND
DENVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE. MAIN CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING FOR THURSDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN.
SOME DRYING AND WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS COLORADO
WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AS THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS A STRONGER TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WHILE THE GFS REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER IF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION VERIFIES WILL NEED TO INCREASE
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF DENVER HAS SENT NORTHERLY WINDS
DOWN ACROSS THE METRO AREA AIRPORTS. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS GOING TO KEEP WINDS FROM RETURNING TO NORMAL DRAINAGE
PATTERNS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DENVER...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY LOWER
CEILINGS IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE AFTER FURTHERY EVALUATION OF
THE EVENING MODEL RUNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH HUMIDITY READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY FROM
NOON THROUGH 8PM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HUMIDITY READINGS INCREASING WHICH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
SPRING FLOOD THREAT STILL LOW AT THIS TIME BUT SOME CREEKS ARE
SHOWING A SLOW RISE IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPCOMING TROF
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND SLOW THE SNOWMELT A BIT FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT QPF (.50-1" OF RAIN) ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY LARIMER COUNTY AND STRETCHING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS. GIVE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS DON`T SEE A HUGE INCREASE IN STREAM FLOWS FROM THIS
STORM.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ246-247.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...D-L
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
OVERALL..CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE. STILL FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LESS WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING DESPITE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT MORE...BASED ON THE
LATEST SYNTHETIC SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AT LEAST PART OF THE WAVE
CLOUD HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY PLANNING ON MAKING
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO TODAY WHILE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SHALLOW PLAINS AIRMASS DID MAKE A BIT OF
WESTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE REVERSED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN A SSE WIND AND MIXING ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITIES IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER...BUT NOT AS SHARP A DIFFERENCE
AS YESTERDAY. SLIGHT COOLING AT LOW TO MID LEVELS SINCE YESTERDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS TODAY...AND THERE IS ALSO A
BIT LESS WIND. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MOST NOTABLY TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THOSE PERIODS. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT...BUT MOSTLY AGREE ON PUTTING COLORADO
UNDER COOL...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CARRY SOME PUNCH WITH
IT...PRIMARILY OFF TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH
TO DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HAD
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH DID NOT NEED ANY
ADJUSTMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM WARMER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
MOVING OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS LATE IN THE WEEK AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS LINGER OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A BIT MORE EASTERLY AT KDEN. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME HINTS AT A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING NORTH OF DENVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHIFT THIS CYCLONE INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY BY 22Z...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS KDEN.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOUTHEASTERLIES AT KDEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTERLY DEVELOPMENT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 12000
FEET AGL. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY...SPEEDS AROUND 8
KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
340 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH
MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z...COLD POOL ALOFT PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING S ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND E MA COASTAL
WATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.0- 7.5 C/KM ACROSS E MA AND
SBCAPES NEAR 250 J/KG. HRRR KEEPS THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM. CLEARING TREND
TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS
FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -25C. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN FOR ABUNDANT CU/AC TO DEVELOP. STILL A LOW RISK FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT LESS THAN 50 SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 1-2C WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO HIGH TEMPS LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S NW HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SEABREEZES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS NW MA AND SW NH. TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* HIGHLIGHTS...
- SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
05.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE SAME SYNOPTIC
SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM WITH TYPICAL BIASES AND
ISSUES RESOLVING THE FINAL SETUP OF A COLD CUTOFF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOT ONLY
IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE BUT AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE TO SPLIT DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AND
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ENSEMBLES AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A WEAKENING
CUTOFF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...FOLLOWING AN H5 RIDGE WHICH WILL DELIVER MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD AS TO WHERE THIS
CUTOFF FINALLY SETS UP WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED FOR THE
FINAL TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ATTENDANT LOW PRES /WHICH WILL PASS
TO THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND/ AND ANY SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVES.
THEREFORE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED PATTERN PARTICULARLY
FOR THE FRI-WEEKEND...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAFL AND WHEN IT FALLS
REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS...
WED AND THU...
DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AS H5 RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIDE E OF NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WX TO
PREVAIL. DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND
H85...TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 0C BY PEAK
MIXING...SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORMS. BY WED NIGHT AND THU A SFC WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME JAMMED TO THE SW IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT
COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...THEREFORE ITS OVERRUNNING PROCESSES
MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER N THAN SW CT. HAVE
MOST POPS HIGHLIGHTED THERE. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF
A WEAKENED MCS WHICH DEVELOPS W OF THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD ITS
MOISTURE/COLD POOL HOLD TOGETHER IT MAY DELIVER SOME RAINFALL
FURTHER N THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT IN ANY CASE A POTENTIALLY
SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM SW
TO NE. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL THU AS WELL
GIVEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
INFLUENCED FLOW. THEREFORE...DESPITE MODELS ATTEMPTING TO BRING IN
NEAR +4C AIR AT H85 FEEL IT WILL STRUGGLE TO BE WARMER THAN
NORMALS...IF IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR. ONE KEY TO WATCH WILL BE
FINAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
FRI AND THE WEEKEND...
LIKELY THE MOST UNSETTLED PERIOD REGIONWIDE AS THE WARM FRONT
FINALLY MAKES A RUN AT MOVING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTS FROM LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING W OF
THE GREAT LAKES. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT
ACTUALLY DOES CROSS THE REGION AS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AND EVEN
THE GFS TO SOME EXTENT/ STILL SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL IN
BOTH MASS AND THETA FIELDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.0-1.25 INCHES
/NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL/ AND THE SFC LOW PRES
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING THANKS TO
BLOCKED FLOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE E. THEREFORE...WITH
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY WAVES
BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY FRI-SUN...AND THE FACT THAT A SERIES OF
FRONTAL WAVES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT...A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IS WARRANTED AND WILL TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED WET
EVENT UNTIL BETTER HANDLING OF THE INITIALIZING CUTOFF IS
OBSERVED. INSTABILITY ISSUES ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND ARE
ULTIMATELY ALLOWED IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS ARE THE SAME
STORY...BUT THE SUGGESTION OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAN ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF RIDGING /SUGGESTIVE OF DRY WX/ IS LIKELY TO
FOLLOW THE SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES ENDING AROUND SUNDAY...THE
TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TRANSLATE INTO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF ANY DRY WX. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN TOWARD LOW OR NIL
POPS AT LEAST FOR MON AND TUE GIVEN AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY THAT
THE LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE E BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR CIGS 4-6K FT WITH NW GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLD
SHOWERS EASTERN MA AND RI.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VFR. BKN CU/AC DEVELOPING DURING TUE
THEN CLEARING TUE NIGHT. NW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING TUE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZES UNLIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW BY LATE DAY/EVENING. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS.
THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN
CT AND EXTREME SE MA. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A
POSSIBILITY.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND
FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY
NW WINDS UNDER 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE NW TO THE SW BY WED EVENING...THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE S TO SE
FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE
WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE
DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUE AS MIN RH VALUES DECREASE
TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 20-25
MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER STATE
OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ON
WED AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH
MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 00Z...COLD POOL ALOFT PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING S ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND E MA COASTAL
WATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.0- 7.5 C/KM ACROSS E MA AND
SBCAPES NEAR 250 J/KG. HRRR KEEPS THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM. CLEARING TREND
TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS
FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -25C. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN FOR ABUNDANT CU/AC TO DEVELOP. STILL A LOW RISK FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT LESS THAN 50 SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 1-2C WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO HIGH TEMPS LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S NW HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SEABREEZES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS NW MA AND SW NH. TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...
A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED THROUGH FRIDAY WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE
WARM-FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SW AGAINST COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO THE NE.
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO WARM-AIR-ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK
AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
BUT CONTINUED SPREAD WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST. PER THE GEFS THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT SENSIBLE-WEATHER DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED THOUGH DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION-AMOUNTS AND SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES COMPARED TO
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DRY FORECAST. SOME CONCERN OVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DUE TO THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...
WINDS WILL BE BELOW RED-FLAG WARNING CRITERIA /25 MPH/ AND WE ARE IN
THE PRE-GREEN-UP STAGES. NO NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE-LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-60S WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING
AROUND +2C. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM-FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR OTHERWISE. LIGHT NW-FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WARM-FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE NE-CONUS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING
AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
BROAD-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FORCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE WARM-FRONT WILL YIELD LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THE
BETTER OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND AS COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO
THE N/E INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING E OF THE DEEP-
TROUGHING BUILDING OUT OF THE W-CONUS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CONVEYED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER AS TO
THE STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF POTENTIAL COLD-AIR-DAMMING. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OVER-RUNNING. DO
NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CONTINUED VARIANCE AMONG MODEL-FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING N- AND
S-STREAM DISTURBANCES ALONG A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE GEFS EXHIBITS SIGNALS OF
A DECENT PWAT AXIS THE MEAN VALUES OF WHICH EXCEED 1-INCH COLLOCATED
WITH ANOMALOUS S/SW MOISTURE TRANSPORT +2 SD /SLIGHTLY GREATER IN
AREAL EXTENT THAN YESTERDAYS 04.0Z GEFS/. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
REGARDS TO EXACT SPECIFICS. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION
OUTCOMES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS.
THOUGH GEFS MEAN H85 TEMPS +10-12C SUGGEST WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE
CONDITIONS...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ABUNDANCE
OF WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS YIELD COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS. SO
THERE IS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
THE PLAUSIBILITY OF A WARM-SECTOR SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE-NORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
8-DAY CONSENSUS FORECAST PER THE CANADIAN STILL SUGGESTS A STRONG
NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...DISTURBED
WEATHER MAY MAKE A RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR CIGS 4-6K FT WITH NW GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLD
SHOWERS EASTERN MA AND RI.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VFR. BKN CU/AC DEVELOPING DURING TUE
THEN CLEARING TUE NIGHT. NW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING TUE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZES UNLIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-FLOW DIMINISHING TURNING SW. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORES WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE WITH LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. -SHRA
ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY... INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE NE.
WINDS SHIFTING S AND INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD-FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY
NW WINDS UNDER 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW-WINDS DIMINISHING TURNING W. SEA-BREEZE ALONG THE SHORES
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. WAVES BELOW 5 FEET. GOOD BOATING
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY OVER THE SW INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING NE TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. NO
VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUE AS MIN RH VALUES DECREASE
TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 20-25
MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER STATE
OFFICIALS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
712 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN UNSETTLED WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. NOTING THE HRRR...HAVE INCREASED
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS OUTCOMES COMPLETELY DRY WHEREAS THE HRRR IS
THE LONE-OUTLIER. THUS HAVE GONE WITH A ROUGHLY 20-PERCENT CHANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW /-2 STD FROM CLIMO/ OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD TODAY. HOWEVER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT /-26C
AT H5/. THIS YIELDS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7.5C/KM...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP. BUFKIT RH PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW
ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES...AROUND 5-6KFT. THUS ONLY EXPECTING A
SPOT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PERHAPS JUST SOME VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON.
HENCE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. GREATEST RISK FOR A SHOWER
/ALBEIT VERY LOW/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA WHERE LOCAL SEABREEZES
MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
OTHERWISE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK AND WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE LOW AND MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MA AND RI WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS CT AND
WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EASE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS PGRAD RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODES WITH SUNSET. WINDS DIMINISH AS WELL
YIELDING A COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE U30S TO M40S.
TUESDAY...
MORE OF THE SAME WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT
LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR ONE MORE DAY. AS A RESULT
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OVER EASTERN MA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH COOL MORNING
TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN. WEAKENING PGRAD SUGGEST
LIGHT WINDS WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...
A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED THROUGH FRIDAY WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE
WARM-FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SW AGAINST COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO THE NE.
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO WARM-AIR-ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK
AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
BUT CONTINUED SPREAD WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST. PER THE GEFS THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT SENSIBLE-WEATHER DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED THOUGH DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION-AMOUNTS AND SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES COMPARED TO
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DRY FORECAST. SOME CONCERN OVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DUE TO THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...
WINDS WILL BE BELOW RED-FLAG WARNING CRITERIA /25 MPH/ AND WE ARE IN
THE PRE-GREEN-UP STAGES. NO NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE-LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-60S WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING
AROUND +2C. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM-FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR OTHERWISE. LIGHT NW-FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WARM-FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE NE-CONUS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING
AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
BROAD-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FORCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE WARM-FRONT WILL YIELD LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THE
BETTER OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND AS COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO
THE N/E INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING E OF THE DEEP-
TROUGHING BUILDING OUT OF THE W-CONUS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CONVEYED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER AS TO
THE STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF POTENTIAL COLD-AIR-DAMMING. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OVER-RUNNING. DO
NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CONTINUED VARIANCE AMONG MODEL-FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING N- AND
S-STREAM DISTURBANCES ALONG A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE GEFS EXHIBITS SIGNALS OF
A DECENT PWAT AXIS THE MEAN VALUES OF WHICH EXCEED 1-INCH COLLOCATED
WITH ANOMALOUS S/SW MOISTURE TRANSPORT +2 SD /SLIGHLY GREATER IN
AREAL EXTENT THAN YESTERDAYS 04.0Z GEFS/. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
REGARDS TO EXACT SPECIFICS. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION
OUTCOMES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS.
THOUGH GEFS MEAN H85 TEMPS +10-12C SUGGEST WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE
CONDITIONS...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ABUNDANCE
OF WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS YIELD COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS. SO
THERE IS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
THE PLAUSIBILITY OF A WARM-SECTOR SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE-NORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
8-DAY CONSENSUS FORECAST PER THE CANADIAN STILL SUGGESTS A STRONG
NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...DISTURBED
WEATHER MAY MAKE A RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DIMINISHING
INTO THE EVENING. MIDDAY-AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER E/SE
NEW ENGLAND. SCT-BKN 4-5 KFT CIGS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE ACROSS SE MA. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LESSER WNW WINDS AND GREATER POSSIBILITY OF
SEA-BREEZES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-FLOW DIMINISHING TURNING SW. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORES WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE WITH LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. -SHRA
ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY... INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE NE.
WINDS SHIFTING S AND INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD-FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
EASE TOWARD MIDDAY WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
OTHER THAN A BRIEF SPOT AFTERNOON SHOWER NEAR SHORE EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY THRU TUE. WNW WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUE.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW-WINDS DIMINISHING TURNING W. SEA-BREEZE ALONG THE SHORES
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. WAVES BELOW 5 FEET. GOOD BOATING
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY OVER THE SW INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING NE TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. NO
VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
136 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60 INLAND AND MID 60S CLOSE TO
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONGOING FORECASTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN ON TRACK...
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED S/SW OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
A SYNOPTIC DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW...PINNING THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON...AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL LIKELY
PUSH TO THE BEACHES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER N/NE SC WEDNESDAY...AND THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. THUS...THE SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP EARLIER AND WILL PUSH INLAND. THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON AREA BEACHES TO THE 70S AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION...HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F WILL STILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70F ON
THE BEACHES WILL BE COMMON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND...PUSHING A
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE SLOWED IF DEEP LAYER RIDGING PERSISTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EVEN SO...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 18Z
MODEL AND SHORT TERM RAP MODEL DATA. EXPECT PEAK WINDS OF 10-15
KT...EXCEPT 15 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED S/SW OF THE
WATERS. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO BACK TOWARD THE SW BOTH AFTERNOON. ALSO...04/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE OF SW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH
NIGHT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING MID
TO LATE WEEK. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
924 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF PACIFIC COAST.
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST. RADAR SHOWING BAND OF WEAK RETURNS OVER
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING VIRGA ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH STRONG UPSTREAM MOISTURE EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION BUBBLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD BE BORDERLINE
FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY. STRONGEST GRADIENT IN LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
OCCURS THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WEAKENING OF WINDS LATER
TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON LAKE HEADLINE FOR THIS MORNING. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING
PROJECTED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER NEVADA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING WAVE SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM12 MODEL FAVORS A COUPLE
OF SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...ONE IN NEVADA AND ANOTHER IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN.
NEGATIVE SURFACE LIS AND STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE LOST RIVER AND
PAHSIMEROI AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH
AREAS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ON
AMERICAN FALLS TO SW AT 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE NO
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RESERVOIR. A 700 MB LOW DEVELOPING IN NE
NEVADA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DRIFTS EASTWARD TO ABOUT WHERE
INTERSTATE 84 CROSSES THE IDAHO AND UTAH STATE LINE. THE FLOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD FOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER CASSIA
COUNTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON COOL SIDE OF
TROUGH ALSO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO ABOUT 6200-6500 FEET ELEVATION.
MAGIC MOUNTAIN COULD GET 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY ABOVE 6500
FEET. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FAVOR VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL SE IDAHO...WHILE THE NAM IS FASTER TO
MOVE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION TO OUR
NORTH IN CANADA AND ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION CROSSING NEVADA AND
UTAH...PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE SLOWER TIMING. CLOUDS...SHOWERS
AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 60F. NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR. A VERY SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECT
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. RS
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST IDAHO WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THURSDAY. A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER AGAIN. FOR SUNDAY...A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
DISTINCTLY DIFFERING TIMING ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF INDICATES
ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING
WHILE THE GFS DELAYS THE ARRIVAL UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DSH
AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH. WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF PIH AND IDA. DSH
HYDROLOGY...ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED FLOWS ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS.
CURRENT ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE HENRYS FORK NEAR REXBURG WILL
APPROACH BANK FULL BY THURSDAY. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
909 PM CDT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH METRO PROMPTED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
THE REST OF TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TO MAKE SOME HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THIS EVE WITH 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT PROFILER ANALYSIS INDICATING A
40-45 KT SRLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAVING DEVELOPED NORTH OF THIS INTO IA
AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIN ARCS OF TCU WERE NOTED ON LATE DAY
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASING
LAYER OF 8K-10K FT CIGS. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND AREA AMDAR SOUNDINGS
WERE INDICATING A MOISTENING AROUND THAT 800-750MB LAYER...WHICH
WHEN LIFTED FROM THAT LAYER ON THE DVN SOUNDING WOULD PROVIDE OVER
1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...THOUGH WITH STILL A MINOR CAP. AS A SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE NEAR KANSAS CITY PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND OVERALL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THAT SLIGHT
CAPPING OVERCOME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
IL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT STORM WAS ALREADY ABLE TO DEVELOP.
IN ADDITION...THE TREND WITH THE HOURLY-RAN HRRR HAS BEEN TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS MAKES SENSE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SOME OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES BUT REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.
GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH THE MCHENRY/LAKE COUNTY
STORM...HAVING SPRUNG TO 40 DBZ OVER 35K FT WITHIN THREE SCANS OF
DEVELOPING...COULD STILL SEE AN ELEVATED HAILER OR TWO ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE REMAINS MORE
SUPPORTIVE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUED TO RE-INFORCE ITSELF EARLY THIS EVE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO...WITH
SOME MID 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND LOWER 50S STARTING TO REACH
SOME OUTLYING AREAS. DID ADJUST MINS DOWN BUT INDICATED SORT OF A
LEVELING OFF TREND TO THIS TEMPERATURE FALL...WITH EVEN POTENTIAL
RISING LATE GIVEN INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME POSSIBILITY TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES...AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SUBTLE FEATURE.
COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT AND HIGH DEW POINTS
BUTT UP AGAINST THE COOL LAKE. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY TO
PROGRESS SLOWER OVER THE MARINE LAYER...IT COULD INDUCE THE FOG.
HAVE NOT ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WE
WILL WATCH AS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO LAKE ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AND ON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS THE ONGOING AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE MIDWEST INDUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE VERY STRONG WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS STRETCHING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
AND IN. STRONG WAA ALOFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 70 SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LAKESHORE AREAS.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SFC WARM FRONT INCHES NORTH...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ INTO NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE ALSO
HINTS AT A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING CONTRARY...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTH...WHERE GENERALLY SLIGHT POPS WERE
MAINTAINED LATE EVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE
MUCAPE AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IF ANY STORMS DO
OCCUR OVER THE FAR NORTH...STRONGER STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S IN FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
THE LAKE TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH CWA...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING MAINLY NORTH
OF I-88. PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID
ADD A SLIGHT POP FOR AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. BIG STORY TOMORROW IS THE
RAPID FLIP TO SUMMER WARMTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS 850/925
MB TEMPS RISE TO LEVELS SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW-MID 80S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE REALLY SLOWS THE NWD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW...BUT THESE MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE LIKELY
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE IL NORTH SHORE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN THE WARM
AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RUSH IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WITH TEMPS JUMPING SEVERAL DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE TO CLOSE TO OR AROUND 60 AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...ADDING
A BIT OF A MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIRMASS. THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED TO
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO REAL FOCUS TO BREACH THE CAP
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NORMAL FOR
MID SUMMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM
STARTING POINT FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUE TO SUSPECT AFTER EXAMINING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAYTIME WITH THE WARM
SECTOR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND A STRONG CAP INDICATED. MOST OF THE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING DURING DAY SHOULD AT MOST SKIRTH THE FAR
NORTHWEST CWA AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL IDEA OF GRADUALLY SPREADING
IN CHANCE POPS BUT BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...COULD FORSEE NEEDING TO
LOWER THESE. THIS IS DESPITE HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORTING MODERATE MLCAPE VALUES.
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ARGUING AGAINST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING...BUT
ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE
ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT.
WITH FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST
CWA DURING MORNING...BUT WITH COLD FRONT ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
AND AIR MASS STILL BEING WARM/MOST...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
REGENERATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 850/925 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
TEENS CELSIUS THROUGH AFTN SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER-MID 70S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UNLIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AFTER PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THIS SPRING...WE
DO NOT LOOK TO RETURN TO A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE JET STREAM PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL SUPPORT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND POSSIBLY MORESO AS PER 12Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
MODEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IT APPEARS AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY
SATURDAY...THE PATTERN COULD BE A BIT UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC TSRA
CHANCES. TIMING IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THIS WILL
ALSO IMPACT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER ON WHICH DAYS ARE MOST SYNOPTICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
LAKEFRONT MUCH COOLER THAN INLAND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES NORTH.
* WARM FROPA WEDNESDAY...MDW FIRST AND THEN ORD.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS KANSAS. A WARM
FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
NORTHWARD TREK ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...THE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THIS SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT...PARTICULARLY AT KORD AND KMDW REMAINS
A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE OTHER SLIGHT CONCERN...MAINLY FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINALS. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES AN AREA OF ALTO CUMULUS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF THE PRESENCE OF SOME
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS EVEN AN AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA ALONG THIS ACTIVITY. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT AS THE
LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD KICKS UP LATER THIS EVENING...THAT THE
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WITH THE BETTER FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF MOST TERMINALS...I HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
04-05 UTC THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TONIGHT...WITH LOW-MEDIUM WITH FROPA
TIMING WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH WITH PREVAILING -TSRA/-SHRA TO STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...LOW WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
302 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW...THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESS BLOCKED BY THE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP BRISK EASTERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH TO THE NORTH. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE PARENT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME ELONGATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT REACHING
THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD FINALLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FLOW
TO TURN OFFSHORE OF THE INDIANA COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...BUT VERY WARM
AIR OVERSPREADING THE COLD LAKE WATER SHOULD HELP LIMIT
MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
BEGINNING TO GET A BIT WARMER...SO THERE COULD BE BETTER MIXING
THERE AND WIND SPEEDS MAY FLIRT WITH GALE FORCE...BUT FOR
NOW...FEEL THAT 30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LAKE...WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
909 PM CDT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH METRO PROMPTED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
THE REST OF TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TO MAKE SOME HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THIS EVE WITH 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT PROFILER ANALYSIS INDICATING A
40-45 KT SRLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAVING DEVELOPED NORTH OF THIS INTO IA
AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIN ARCS OF TCU WERE NOTED ON LATE DAY
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASING
LAYER OF 8K-10K FT CIGS. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND AREA AMDAR SOUNDINGS
WERE INDICATING A MOISTENING AROUND THAT 800-750MB LAYER...WHICH
WHEN LIFTED FROM THAT LAYER ON THE DVN SOUNDING WOULD PROVIDE OVER
1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...THOUGH WITH STILL A MINOR CAP. AS A SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE NEAR KANSAS CITY PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND OVERALL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THAT SLIGHT
CAPPING OVERCOME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
IL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT STORM WAS ALREADY ABLE TO DEVELOP.
IN ADDITION...THE TREND WITH THE HOURLY-RAN HRRR HAS BEEN TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS MAKES SENSE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SOME OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES BUT REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.
GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH THE MCHENRY/LAKE COUNTY
STORM...HAVING SPRUNG TO 40 DBZ OVER 35K FT WITHIN THREE SCANS OF
DEVELOPING...COULD STILL SEE AN ELEVATED HAILER OR TWO ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE REMAINS MORE
SUPPORTIVE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUED TO RE-INFORCE ITSELF EARLY THIS EVE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO...WITH
SOME MID 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND LOWER 50S STARTING TO REACH
SOME OUTLYING AREAS. DID ADJUST MINS DOWN BUT INDICATED SORT OF A
LEVELING OFF TREND TO THIS TEMPERATURE FALL...WITH EVEN POTENTIAL
RISING LATE GIVEN INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME POSSIBILITY TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES...AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SUBTLE FEATURE.
COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT AND HIGH DEW POINTS
BUTT UP AGAINST THE COOL LAKE. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY TO
PROGRESS SLOWER OVER THE MARINE LAYER...IT COULD INDUCE THE FOG.
HAVE NOT ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WE
WILL WATCH AS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO LAKE ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AND ON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS THE ONGOING AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE MIDWEST INDUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE VERY STRONG WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS STRETCHING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
AND IN. STRONG WAA ALOFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 70 SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LAKESHORE AREAS.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SFC WARM FRONT INCHES NORTH...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ INTO NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE ALSO
HINTS AT A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING CONTRARY...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTH...WHERE GENERALLY SLIGHT POPS WERE
MAINTAINED LATE EVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE
MUCAPE AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IF ANY STORMS DO
OCCUR OVER THE FAR NORTH...STRONGER STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S IN FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
THE LAKE TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH CWA...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING MAINLY NORTH
OF I-88. PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID
ADD A SLIGHT POP FOR AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. BIG STORY TOMORROW IS THE
RAPID FLIP TO SUMMER WARMTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS 850/925
MB TEMPS RISE TO LEVELS SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW-MID 80S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE REALLY SLOWS THE NWD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW...BUT THESE MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE LIKELY
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE IL NORTH SHORE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN THE WARM
AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RUSH IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WITH TEMPS JUMPING SEVERAL DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE TO CLOSE TO OR AROUND 60 AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...ADDING
A BIT OF A MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIRMASS. THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED TO
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO REAL FOCUS TO BREACH THE CAP
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NORMAL FOR
MID SUMMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM
STARTING POINT FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUE TO SUSPECT AFTER EXAMINING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAYTIME WITH THE WARM
SECTOR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND A STRONG CAP INDICATED. MOST OF THE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING DURING DAY SHOULD AT MOST SKIRTH THE FAR
NORTHWEST CWA AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL IDEA OF GRADUALLY SPREADING
IN CHANCE POPS BUT BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...COULD FORSEE NEEDING TO
LOWER THESE. THIS IS DESPITE HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORTING MODERATE MLCAPE VALUES.
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ARGUING AGAINST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING...BUT
ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE
ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT.
WITH FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST
CWA DURING MORNING...BUT WITH COLD FRONT ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
AND AIR MASS STILL BEING WARM/MOST...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
REGENERATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 850/925 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
TEENS CELSIUS THROUGH AFTN SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER-MID 70S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UNLIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AFTER PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THIS SPRING...WE
DO NOT LOOK TO RETURN TO A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE JET STREAM PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL SUPPORT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND POSSIBLY MORESO AS PER 12Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
MODEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IT APPEARS AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY
SATURDAY...THE PATTERN COULD BE A BIT UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC TSRA
CHANCES. TIMING IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THIS WILL
ALSO IMPACT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER ON WHICH DAYS ARE MOST SYNOPTICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
LAKEFRONT MUCH COOLER THAN INLAND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* WARM FROPA WEDNESDAY...MDW FIRST AND THEN ORD.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS KANSAS. A WARM
FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
NORTHWARD TREK ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...THE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THIS SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT...PARTICULARLY AT KORD AND KMDW REMAINS
A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE OTHER SLIGHT CONCERN...MAINLY FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINALS. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES AN AREA OF ALTO CUMULUS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF THE PRESENCE OF SOME
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS EVEN AN AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA ALONG THIS ACTIVITY. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT AS THE
LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD KICKS UP LATER THIS EVENING...THAT THE
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WITH THE BETTER FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF MOST TERMINALS...I HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
04-05 UTC THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TONIGHT...WITH LOW
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF FROPA TRENDS WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PREVAILING -TSRA/-SHRA TO STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH NEAR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
302 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW...THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESS BLOCKED BY THE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP BRISK EASTERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH TO THE NORTH. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE PARENT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME ELONGATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT REACHING
THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD FINALLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FLOW
TO TURN OFFSHORE OF THE INDIANA COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...BUT VERY WARM
AIR OVERSPREADING THE COLD LAKE WATER SHOULD HELP LIMIT
MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
BEGINNING TO GET A BIT WARMER...SO THERE COULD BE BETTER MIXING
THERE AND WIND SPEEDS MAY FLIRT WITH GALE FORCE...BUT FOR
NOW...FEEL THAT 30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LAKE...WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
407 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 AM CDT
EARLY THIS MORNING CONSIDERABLE HIGH-BASED CLOUDS WERE SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL BOUNDARY THAT
HAD STRONG ASCENT OF PARCELS AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NORTHEAST IOWA TO
CENTRAL IN LINE. HI-RES LCL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIMEFRAME TO BE
NARROW...AND LIKELY COMING TO AN END ARND DAYBREAK. WITH THE
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
RISE FROM THE UPR 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT ARND DAYBREAK THESE
DEW POINTS SHUD MOISTEN SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW 30S.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTN
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF
I-80...MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH TEMPS MAY NEAR 70 BY LATE THIS AFTN.
THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT AND DOWN WIND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN FAR NORTHEAST IL GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERHEAD...AS BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS STRETCHING EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO-VALLEY. NEAR SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS TONIGHT...BEFORE
STARTING TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. A
QUASI-BAROCLINIC FEATURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL IL/IN TONIGHT THRU TUE...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OF THE PROGGED SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. DRY CONDS SHUD CONTINUE THRU THE BULK OF
TUE...THEN AS THE SFC VORT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTH. STRONG ASCENT OF PARCELS IS
POISED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A NARROW
CHANNEL OF INCREASED INSTABILITY...THUS TSRA/SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS TUE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S SOUTH
OF I-80...AND TO THE NORTH IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE WITH CONTINUED
EASTERLY FLOW A LAKE SHADOW EFFECT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN FAR NORTHEAST
IL GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING NORTH WILL CONTROL TUE
NGT TEMPS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE
NUDGED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA INTO THE MID/UPR 50S...BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS QUICKER THIS WOULD HOLD TEMPS ARND 60 TO PSBLY LOW
60S. THE WILDCARD IS ALSO THE CONTINUED DRY CONDS...WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 40S. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL QUICKLY FALL AFT SUNSET
TUE EVE INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LASALLE TO
KANKAKEE LINE.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH MID-LVL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO
SLOWLY BECOME CAPPED AS TEMPS QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 80S. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IS THAT PERHAPS NUDGING TEMPS WARMER MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
COULD SEE TEMPS SOUTH OF I-80 POSSIBLY NEARING 90...MAINLY SOUTH OF
A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE. FURTHER NORTH CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM EARLY
IN THE DAY SHUD KEEP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
80-84 TO BECOME COMMON. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY
LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND...SO HAVE BOOSTED DOWNTOWN CHICAGO
TEMPS TO REFLECT THE URBAN HEAT.
THE SFC LOW WILL BE DRIFTING NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WED NGT/EARLY THUR.
EXPECT LLVL MOISTURE TO STEADILY ADVECT NORTH...WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1.5" AND DEW POINTS APPROACHING 60. A LITTLE CONCERNED LLVL
MOISTURE MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE GIVEN THAT PRIOR TO WED NGT THERE IS
NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
SETUP THAT A STEADY CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WED NGT.
THUR WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHALLENGES WITH THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP/CONVECTION. THE BEST
FORCING AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR THUR...AND COULD FEASIBLY SEE MUCH OF THUR BEING DRY.
THEN AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES PRECIP COVERAGE SHUD INCREASE.
TEMPS THUR SHUD ONCE AGAIN WARM WELL INTO THE MID/UPR 70S BY LATE
MORNING...THEN TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S. THE WARMEST WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF A LASALLE TO CRYSTAL LAKE LINE. CLOUDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
MILD NIGHT...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
LATE THUR THE SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP AN A MOIST CHANNEL WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM
THE OZARKS NORTH THRU THE FORECAST AREA LATE THUR NGT. WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LLVL JET OVERHEAD...AND A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...EFFICIENT PRECIP FROM CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING/COVERAGE THUR...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THE 500MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH WEAK MID-LVL TROUGHING ARRIVING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT/SUN AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING EARLY FRI AND PUSHING EAST
BY MIDDAY FRI...HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN EVOLVING
THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN PRECIP MIGHT COME TO AN END FRI. HAVE
BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO LOW CHC...THEN SLT CHC FRI NGT...BUT COULD SEE
FRI TRENDING DRY. SFC RIDGE ARRIVES SAT AND WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES SAT...ARRIVING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
SAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE.
* GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PASSED ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST OF ARR TO C09 AND IKK. THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF MDW/GYY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BUT
ANOTHER SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF FEP SO OPTED TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT VCSH MENTION THROUGH 12Z FOR THE CHICAGO AREA
TERMINALS WITH THE SMALL CHANCE THAT ANY STRONGER CELLS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF LIGHTNING. CMS
PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY AID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING BOTH LOCATION
AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LOW. MOST RECENT HIGH RES/SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN EXPECTED COVERAGE. ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BE HIGH BASED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT VCSH
AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR UPDATES. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR...CHANCE TSRA TUES NGT.
WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHANCE TSRA...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR...TSRA LIKELY LATE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THAT TIME...EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW
OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TO JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY AND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
A PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS IS POSSIBLE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
06z surface analysis showed low pressure over southwest KS with a
quasi-stationary boundary extending east through central MO and
into southern IL. This has kept a brisk ENE low level flow going
locally off Canadian high perched over the Great Lakes. This is
producing unseasonably low dew points in the 20s. Despite the dry
boundary layer, strong elevated theta-e advection aided by at
50-55 kt low level jet over MO has managed to produce isolated
showers just north and east of the local area on the cool side of
the 850mb front. A few lightning strikes have even been noted just
northwest of Henry. Hi-res models keep this isolated activity northeast
of the area over the next few hours and it should fade towards
sunrise as the LLJ wanes.
The front to our south is progged to shift north near I-70 by late
morning before drifting back south again during the afternoon.
This brings another day of dry ENE flow to much of the CWA and
with little change in the low to mid level airmass highs should
again be in the upper 60s north to mid 70s central. Some low 80s
will be possible south of I-70.
The upper level flow begins to amplify on Tuesday with a digging
western trough and downstream ridging building over the Great
Lakes. This will push highs a few degrees warmer. The surface
boundary is expected to surge north Tuesday night while the first in
a series of mid-level waves lifts northeast from the Plains. The
bulk of this activity should be north of the CWA though did
maintain a strip of slight chance pops over the far north
overnight. The local area will be firmly in the warm sector on
Wednesday and brisk southerly winds will push highs well above
normal, into the middle 80s. Dewpoints getting up into the lower
60s will bring higher humidity back to the region. Dry
conditions should hold overnight as storms remain focused well to
our north and west.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Surface low pressure is forecast to lift into southern MN with a
trailing cold front shifting into IA/MO Thursday evening. Will
continue with chance pops west of I-55 Thursday afternoon as upper
forcing ahead of the front could bring some scattered storms this
far east. A better chance for more widespread t-storms will be
tied to the frontal passage overnight. While low level moisture
and wind shear could favor some stronger storms, unfavorable diurnal
timing looks to mitigate the overall severe threat. A secondary
disturbance lifting out of the Plains trough will likely hang the
front up over central or eastern IL Friday afternoon/evening and
will keep high chance pops going especially east of I-57.
High pressure building in behind the front brings drying
conditions from the northwest on Saturday. Lower confidence forecast
for later in the weekend as a brief period of zonal flow over the
central U.S. could see one or two low amplitude waves bring some
precip to the Midwest. Model consensus low chance pops for
Saturday night and Sunday are reasonable at this point. Upper
level heights suggest seasonable temps during this period.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1126 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
East-northeast winds have been gusting from 20-25 knots the last
few hours, and will continue to be gusty for a few more hours.
NAM model suggests some borderline LLWS conditions for a couple
hours around 08-09Z, although the RAP is not quite as high, so
will leave mention out of the upcoming TAFs. Frontal boundary
across the southern third of Illinois may drift northward a bit on
Monday before retreating, diminishing winds for a time late
morning and into the afternoon, especially from KSPI-KCMI, before
picking up again a bit in the evening. Cloud cover expected to
remain above 12KFT through the period.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1229 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
826 PM CDT
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE MAIN BELT
OF PERTURBED MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...ATOP A LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE 00 UTC RAOBS REALLY SHOWS THE
STOUT NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ORIENTED LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR EXAMPLE...KGRB REPORTED +1
CELSIUS AT 850 MB...WITH KDVN COMING IN AT +10 CELSIUS AND KSGF
COMING IN WITH A SUMMER-LIKE +21 CELSIUS. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL ULTIMATELY HELP SET UP SOME GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH AREA RAOBS
INDICATE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
850 TO 700 MB LAYER...IT APPEARS THAT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND FROTOGENISIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP MOISTEN THESE LAYERS...WITH
HIGHER THETA E AIR LIKELY TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THAT THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BENEATH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS
COULD POSS A SMALL THREAT OF HAIL GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY STOUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER THE AREA.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...I HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AND WILL
ALSO ADD THE MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CWA WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH MONDAY LOOKING WARMER...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKE. A WARM UP
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MID 80S OR HIGHER POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. WE ALSO GET INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW IS ALOFT AS A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CONUS. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SHOWERS OVERHEAD NOW ARE WEAKENING QUICKLY WITH VERY FEW OBS
INDICATING RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE. SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS WILL
FORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS WAA SETS UP ALOFT. WITH CONSISTENT GUIDANCE...WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING A
HUGE IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP IN TO THE LOWER 40S BUT ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 30S AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT COOLING.
WINDS REMAIN OFF OF THE LAKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE BOTH DAYS. OUTLYING AREAS WILL WARM NICELY
INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY. THE EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME A BIT GUSTY TUESDAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT TWO DRY NICE DAYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN OPEN GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW US FORMS AN OPEN WAVE
OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THE WAVE PASSES TO W OR NW THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SECOND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST LOW OVER THE PLAINS DISSIPATES WHILE A
SECOND SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN
PASSES OVER WI FRIDAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY AS WELL.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF I-80...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE
LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE NOW FEATURES
SOME SIGNIFICANT CAPPING SO WHILE A STORM OR TWO MAY GO SEVERE IF IT
CAN REACH THE 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE THE CAP...FOCUSING ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL PROBABLY SEE
STORMS MOVE NORTH INTO WI WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER PWATS
WILL BE AN INCH PLUS SO COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS.
WE WILL ENJOY THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY...AND RAISED HIGH TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AND CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT
WARMING...BUT HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S
RIGHT NOW. IF WE GET FULL SUNSHINE COULD SEE HIGHS EVEN WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH WI THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ITS
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS REMAIN AT 1-1.25 INCHES SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE BIT MORE MEAGER AT
AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS MUCH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT SO
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT JUST IN
CASE. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER 70S AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE.
* GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY AID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING BOTH LOCATION
AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LOW. MOST RECENT HIGH RES/SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN EXPECTED COVERAGE. ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BE HIGH BASED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT VCSH
AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR UPDATES. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR...CHANCE TSRA TUES NGT.
WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHANCE TSRA...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR...TSRA LIKELY LATE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISHING. THE HIGH WILL TRANSITION
EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FRESHEN UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS INCREASING BACK INTO THE
10 TO 20 KT RANGE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
STARTS TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1126 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 817 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
Concern for tonight will be with any rain chances across our
northern CWA. Shortwave currently moving through central Nebraska
continues to move east, and should be moving into western Illinois
just before sunrise. Most of the models are reflecting some light
rain accumulations north of I-74 late tonight, as lift increases
ahead of the wave. However, there is an awful lot of dry air below
500 mb, per our evening sounding, that will have to be overcome.
Dew points have dropped into the 20s from Bloomington eastward and
with a stiff east wind, no moisture will be advecting in from that
direction. Already seeing reports of virga over our northern CWA
and this will probably be common for several more hours. The
showers last night did manage to eke out some light but measurable
amounts in a similar parched atmosphere, so will not rule out the
possibility here, but am not expecting more than a hundredth at
best. Have included some 30% PoP`s after midnight north of I-74.
Increasing lapse rates suggest a couple rumbles of thunder could
be possible as well, but will hold off on this for now. Otherwise,
little change was needed to the other parts of the forecast.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1126 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
East-northeast winds have been gusting from 20-25 knots the last
few hours, and will continue to be gusty for a few more hours.
NAM model suggests some borderline LLWS conditions for a couple
hours around 08-09Z, although the RAP is not quite as high, so
will leave mention out of the upcoming TAFs. Frontal boundary
across the southern third of Illinois may drift northward a bit on
Monday before retreating, diminishing winds for a time late
morning and into the afternoon, especially from KSPI-KCMI, before
picking up again a bit in the evening. Cloud cover expected to
remain above 12KFT through the period.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
Despite some minor model differences resolving the short term
shortwaves in the quasi-zonal flow, the overall synoptic patterns
are in agreement until the day 5-7 time frame. There will not be a
major shift in the sensible weather between the short term
solutions, with any light rain over the next few days being
short-lived and barely measurable. Clouds and temps will show
larger differences depending on the track of the waves. Therefore,
only made minor adjustments to the ongoing precip forecast. A
significant warmup still looks on track for Wed/Thur, as a broad
ridge expands into the area.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
A departing shortwave from today will keep clouds and sprinkles
across the north into the evening. The next shortwave will arrive
after midnight, triggering additional slight chances of showers
north of I-74 through Monday morning. Very little rain
accumulation is expected from during that system.
The stationary front just south of our forecast area tonight will
lift north as a warm front on Monday, allowing areas south of I-70
to see some of the warm sector air mass a couple days early.
On Tuesday, the front may slip back south slightly, but the
ridging aloft and increasing heights will allow high temps to
still climb a few degrees warmer than Monday. Tues should be a dry
day with the next disturbance possibly Tuesday night across
northern IL. We could see a few light showers from Galesburg to
Lacon.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday
A much stronger push of warm air will come on Wednesday as the mid
level warm front re-develops across northern IL/southern WI,
allowing surface temps to climb around 10-12 deg above normal, in
the 80-84 range. The MEX extended GFS guidance even has 88 for SPI
on Wed. We trended warmer, but we tempered that big of a swing
with this update due to some signals from the Canadian and ECMWF
of slightly cooler 850mb temps than the GFS/NAM.
We will remain firmly entrenched in the warm sector on Thursday
but increasing clouds and storm chances may keep highs a few deg
cooler than Wed depending on how much morning sunshine/warming
occurs. The highest chances of storms this week looks to be
Thursday night into Friday morning, with likely PoPs across the
board in our forecast area. Due to increasing shear parameters and
instability, we could see a few rotating storms with damaging
winds and hail possible. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out
either, but better chances of severe weather should remain west in
Missouri and Iowa. Based on SPC Day 5 outlook, our severe
potential will be mainly from Knox County to Schuyler County. Our
lower severe chances will be aided by poor diurnal timing, as
storms will be later Thursday night without the support of surface
based instability. Elevated CAPE and shear will still be
sufficient for a few vigorous updrafts advancing into western IL
however.
The cold front should push through IL on Friday, with dry air
already across most of our counties by afternoon. Noticeably cooler
air will return for Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is
indicating a secondary wave of low pressure moving up the Ohio
River Valley on Saturday, which could keep shower/storm chances
in our southeast counties. The GFS does not resolve that
feature, and keeps rain chances south of IL.
For Sunday, the GFS introduces a wave of low pressure that the
ECMWF does not show, so AllBlend PoPs were skewed upwards each day
next weekend by alternating days of storm systems. Will keep any
precip in the low chance or slight chance category due to the model
differences.
Some return of warmer air is forecast for Sunday in both the GFS
and ECMWF, so that trend was allowed in the forecast.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
202 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S JUST NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THE ONLY PLACE THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE 80S TODAY MAY BE THE FAR NORTH. THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED
WELL BY CURRENT FORECAST. THUS...NO CHANGES WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
A WARM AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS DIURNAL
CURVE...SO GOING TO UP TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S. A
FEW 87 OR 88 DEGREE READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
WARMER TEMPS AND DRY SFC CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
ALSO...SCALED BACK THE SKY COVER WITH ONLY A VERY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
DECK ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WE
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. CONVECTION SO FAR REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN
BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS
PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN
WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A
WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE
PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER
VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI
METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST
SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY
THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF
GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25
PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE
CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO
TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER...
AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING
NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE
GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER
US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A
BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD NOT
YIELD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP...BUT
NOT QUITE AS STRONG TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
922 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
A WARM AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS DIURNAL
CURVE...SO GOING TO UP TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S. A
FEW 87 OR 88 DEGREE READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
WARMER TEMPS AND DRY SFC CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
ALSO...SCALED BACK THE SKY COVER WITH ONLY A VERY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
DECK ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WE
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. CONVECTION SO FAR REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN
BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS
PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN
WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A
WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE
PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER
VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI
METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST
SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY
THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF
GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25
PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE
CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO
TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER...
AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING
NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE
GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER
US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A
BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON AVERAGE. WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES..ESPECIALLY AT JKL AND SJS. STRAY CONVECTION WITH
BRIEF MVFR COULD PASS NEAR SJS 14Z TO 19Z...BUT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND SUSTAINED AROUND
12KT ESPECIALLY AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
748 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. CONVECTION SO FAR REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN
BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS
PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN
WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A
WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE
PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER
VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI
METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST
SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY
THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF
GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25
PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE
CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO
TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER...
AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING
NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE
GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER
US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A
BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON AVERAGE. WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES..ESPECIALLY AT JKL AND SJS. STRAY CONVECTION WITH
BRIEF MVFR COULD PASS NEAR SJS 14Z TO 19Z...BUT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND SUSTAINED AROUND
12KT ESPECIALLY AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN
BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS
PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN
WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A
WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE
PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER
VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS
DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI
METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST
SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY
THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF
GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25
PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS.
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE
CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO
TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER...
AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING
NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE
GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER
US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A
BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON AVERAGE. WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT ALL FOUR TAF STIES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...IN OUR DEEPEST RIVER
VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. STRAY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF MVFR COULD PASS NEAR KSJS 16Z
TO 22Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CDFNT CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS SSW THROUGH INTERIOR E AND SE
VA...AND WILL CONT TO SETTLE S THROUGH THE FCST NEXT FEW HRS.
00Z/05 RUC PUSHES THE FNT S INTO SRN NC BY 12Z/05. BECOMING COOLER
POST CDFNT OVRNGT...W/ LO TEMPS RANGING FM M/U40S N...TO THE
L/M50S S. VRB CLDS/PCLDY ACRS THE FA THE REST OF THE NGT...W/ POPS
AOB 14%.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NW ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
NC. LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST MON AFTN/MON
NIGHT. AFTER SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...EXPECT SKIES TO CLOUD OVER
FROM W TO E BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN
THE AFTN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST W/NW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. BY LATE MON AFTN AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING IS WHEN MID LEVEL (H7 TO H5) LAPSE
RATES INCREASE TO 7-7.5 C IN SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOWALTER INDICES
ALSO GO NEGATIVE IN THESE AREAS DESPITE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER (AND
+LI VALUES). THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS (MAINLY ELEVATED) ALONG/SOUTH OF I-64. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO PUSH A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST ON TUE...AND
WILL LIKELY LIMIT POPS FOR TUE EXCEPT ACRS THE SW WHERE A 20% POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED. LOW LEVEL LIGHT/E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL AGAIN...65-70F NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 70S WELL INLAND.
THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHWR AND ISOLD TSTSM
CHANCES WED (ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE W OF THE AKQ CWA).
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THRU CNTRL AND ERN CNTIES WED NGT
THRU THU...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. UPR RDG WILL BLD OVR
THE AREA FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR FRI NGT
THRU SAT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES IN FM THE W.
THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE SAT THRU SUN. WILL HAVE
INCREASING POPS FM NW TO SE FRI NGT THRU SAT...THEN MAINLY HAVE CHC
POPS EVERYWHERE SAT NGT THRU SUN...ALNG WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S THU MORNG...UPR 50S TO
LWR 60S FRI MORNG...LWR TO MID 60S SAT MORNG...AND 60 TO 65 SUN
MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 70S TO THE MID 80S THU...UPR
70S TO MID 80S FRI...MID 70S TO MID 80S SAT...AND FM THE MID 70S TO
ARND 80 SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW S OF THE REGION. THE WIND SHIFTED TO NE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LARGELY BACK TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SCT MID CLOUDS ~10K FT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVER NC...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO ~5K FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (60%) WILL BE OVER
A CORRIDOR THAT INCLUDES RIC/PHF/ORF...WITH ECG/SBY IN A
PERIPHERAL ZONE OF 40-50%. AN ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND S OF THE VA/NC BORDER. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
CDFNT TO MOVE THROUGH FAR SRN WTRS NEXT COUPLE HRS...ASSOCIATED W/
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NNE AND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. XPCG NNE WNDS
ACRS THE WTRS THE REST OF THE NGT. KEEPING SCAS IN PLACE (THE
ENTIRE CHES BAY AND THE JAMES RIVER FM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO
THE HAMPTON RDS BRIDGE...AS WELL AS THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS).
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH 4-5 FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER NC EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LO PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MON NGT INTO
TUE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NNE ACRS THE WTRS AS A WARM
FRONT WED INTO THU. HI PRES EVENTUALLY SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE
CST FOR LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER
AT MATTOAX DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE LATEST FLSAKQ
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631-638-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SLIGHT RISK TS POTENTIAL FROM SPC IS ALONG THE WI BORDER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE WARMER AIR
WILL BE FOG...WHICH IS STILL FCST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
AND TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NV AND S CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY PROGRESS E...STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /WITH THE APEX OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI/.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DESPITE THE SE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
INTO S WI AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NE INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE W HALF /PENDING RAIN SHOWER/
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO A CWA AVG OF 18C.
CURRENTLY FCSTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS S MN AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
CONCERN TS WISE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT MAY HOOK
UP THROUGH SW UPPER MI AND NEAR THE WI BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CATCH UP TO
IT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER E MN/NW WI AND THE W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS ONTARIO BY
MID DAY FRIDAY...DRAGGING THE INITIAL COLD FRONT E OF UPPER MI. THE
SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE W-NW.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2C BY SATURDAY MORNING AS PW
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.3IN...OR 45-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 30S FCST FOR THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP BEING A BIT LOWER.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
LOW /PICKED UP MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY WISE OFF THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF/ LOOKS TO BE OVER S CANADA AND MN AT 12Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE
RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS TO THE SW AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AROUND DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD WELL TO THE N OF WARM FRONT IN THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WED...A
DRY...STEADY ESE FLOW OF DRY AIR OUT OF HIGH PRES IN ONTARIO EXITING
ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NE SHOULD WORK TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN IF SOME -SHRA MOVE INTO KIWD/KSAW LATE
TONIGHT OR WED MORNING. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
MAY LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SW FLANK OF
HI PRES RETREATING THRU ONTARIO AND IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS...EXPECT SLOWLY VEERING NE TO
SE WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TO DOMINATE INTO THU. AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WED NIGHT/THU...FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE
COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON
THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE E ON SUN AS THE HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING LO
MOVES TO THE E. NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS
THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI
PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA
MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER.
BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED
PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS
WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE
SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE
HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS...
EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT
EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF
IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE
RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER
TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL
ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND
THE SFC LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE SET UP ALONG THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THROUGH NV AND S CA. CLOSER TO HOME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S...UP THROUGH MANITOBA AND QUEBEC.
THE INITIAL GLANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE NW CORNER OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AS INCREASED WAA SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
850MB TEMPS AVERAGING 2C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO AN AVG 5C BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ON SSE WINDS. DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM IWD TO
ONTONAGON SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT...THAT IS UNLESS
ISOTROPIC LIFT/WWA RAIN SHOWERS COME IN AS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE SET UP AROUND NE/KS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BASICALLY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES.
MUCH OF THE NE PROGRESS OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING FROM NE TO SW MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE
TO THE EJECTING 500MB TROUGH SLIDING TO THE NE ND AREA.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF RAIN AT LEAST AT
THIS TIME...BUT WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WITH E-SE SFC
WINDS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WITH LATEST FCST
PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE FCST MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
FOR THE INCLUSION OF TS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVE THE ELEVATED NATURE.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE STACKED SFC-500MB BY 12Z FRIDAY
OVER MN. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWED MORE RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVED ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY AND TO JAMES
BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY...MORE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...WITH A
POTENT SECONDARY FRONT SWINGING IN AND FINALLY CHANGING THE NEAR SFC
WINDS TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH
AGREEMENT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE 00-06Z FRI OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
DRY FOR NOW...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR DAYS
6/SUNDAY AND 7/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOW SOMEWHERE
TO OUR W AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE
500MB LOW STILL STUCK ACROSS CANADA /NEAR N SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA/. THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER N
CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT IWD EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL 3
TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED
INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER
ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU
SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION HAS
CONTINUED IS STEADY DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...GOING BELOW
ADVISORY STAGE.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE
LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AROUND 8
AM SUNDAY STILL AT PAINESDALE...AND THE 16IN OF SNOW DEPTH AT HERMAN
AROUND 8 AM MONDAY.
THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE
STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER.
EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH
LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS
THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI
PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA
MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER.
BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED
PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS
WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE
SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE
HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS...
EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT
EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF
IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE
RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER
TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL
ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE U.P. TO START
TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE-END OF THE THIS WORK WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMING TEMPS OVER LAND (INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S) AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD
TO LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST)...KEEPING HIGHS COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
AFTERNOON...BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-500MB OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SINCE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN ITS NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT...TEND TO LIKE THE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH IDEA WITH
THE WARM FRONT UNTIL THE LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THAT IDEA. EVEN WITH THAT IDEA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA
OF INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID TREND UP TO
LOW END LIKELYS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA BASED OFF THE
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS. TRENDED
POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED.
IF IT IS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS SHOWN WITH THE 00Z GFS THE AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE PERIOD WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE CUTS OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHIFTS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD PUT THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. THE GEM IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND
WOULD PUT THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. OPTED
TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND GO WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
MUCAPE/SHOWALTER VALUES FOR THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ELEVATED. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAIN AND CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE AREA AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO BECOME ELEVATED BY THE TIME IT GETS TO
THIS AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY DUE TO CONVECTION...AS THEY NORMALLY ARE
DURING THE WARM SEASON...SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE AMOUNTS AT THIS
POINT. OVERALL...SEEMS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 0.5IN
AND DEPENDING WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND THEN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN.
HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASE IN FOG WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO THE WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE VERY
COLD (AND IN SOME AREAS ICE COVERED) GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...DID
EXPAND THE FOG OVER THE LAND AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. USED A COMBINATION OF WIND DIRECTION AND ELEVATION
TO DEFINE THE AREAS...WITH SOME DECREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
DUE TO MIXING. SINCE THERE WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THAT
TIME...SHOWED THE WORST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...OVER THE
KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND IT SHOULD
BRING A WEST TO EAST DECREASE IN POPS AND FOG. THE 18Z GFS AND THE
00Z ECMWF DO HINT AT THE LOW LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWED THE DRIER CONSENSUS...BUT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW THEN LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT IWD EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL 3
TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED
INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER
ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU
SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE
LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AT 8 AM SUNDAY STILL AT
PAINESDALE.
THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE
STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER.
EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH
LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
323 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
Not much change from the prev forecast. Main focus will continue
to be the location of the quasi-stationary fnt. This fnt is
expected to lift nwd this morning, before being pushed back swd
this afternoon thru tonight as the sfc ridge builds back into the
region from the Great Lakes region.
With a lack of moisture across the region, have kept the period
dry. Mdls continue to over forecast dewpoint with no moisture
return with a sfc ridge cutting off flow from the Gulf.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
Once again, not many changes to the prev forecast. Continued
trending cooler with dewpoints as mentioned above. Gulf shud
finally open up again by Thurs allowing moisture return once
again. That said, expect dewpoints to pool along and just S of the
sfc fnt. However, there is not enuf pooling expected to generate
TSRA.
The location of this fnt will determine temps thru Tues with upper
80s and lower 90s on the S side of the fnt, and 70s to 80 on the N
side. By Wed morning, the fnt shud be well N of the region. Chance
for TSRA increases on Thurs as cyclogenesis ramps up and the upper
trof ejects into the Plains. Believe this system will behave very
similar to the system last week where a leading s/w ejects into
the region ahead of the main trof. This s/w is progd to push thru
the CWA late Thurs into Thurs night. Another round of TSRA is
expected across sern portions of the CWA on Fri as the main trof
pushes thru. Either of these periods of TSRA have the potential of
producing severe wx. However, questions regarding moisture return
will determine severe wx potential and areas affected.
For Sat and beyond, pattern becomes more typical of May with a
quasi-stationary sfc boundary in the general area with waves of
trofs moving thru the region. With questions regarding timing,
have kept POPs in the lower chance range for now. As the large sfc
ridge builds into the region, temps shud be cooler.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The
primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a
stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region
over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side
of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to
southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is
very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture.
Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest
winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when
surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models
also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but
the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer
compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for
KCOU and KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and
high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the
location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on
the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the
south side of the front).
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 90 60 86 64 / 10 5 5 5
Quincy 76 49 77 62 / 5 5 10 10
Columbia 88 57 87 64 / 10 5 5 5
Jefferson City 90 58 87 64 / 5 5 5 5
Salem 85 57 83 61 / 10 5 5 5
Farmington 89 57 86 61 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
130 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014
Not much change from the prev forecast. Main focus will continue
to be the location of the quasi-stationary fnt. This fnt is
expected to lift nwd this morning, before being pushed back swd
this afternoon thru tonight as the sfc ridge builds back into the
region from the Great Lakes region.
With a lack of moisture across the region, have kept the period
dry. Mdls continue to over forecast dewpoint with no moisture
return with a sfc ridge cutting off flow from the Gulf.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
The main issue for at least the next several days will be the
location of the east-west quasi-stationary front and resultant
impact on temperatures. Guidance is good agreement moving the
boundary northward on Monday morning to around a Moberly-Matoon
line by early afternoon. While there will be a few more clouds
around on Monday, the character of the air mass and low level flow
regime is not expected to change. Thus it appears highs in the 80s
to lower 90s will be the norm within the warm sector, and in the
70s to the north of the front. The front then sags south again on
Monday night as surface high pressure builds southeastward from
the Great Lakes region. This southward position doesn`t appear to
last long however as the front is forecast to retreat northward
again on Tuesday, draped across northern MO into central IL by
late afternoon and exiting the CWA by late evening. This northward
retreat is in response to falling pressures across the Plains and
the movement of an initial low pressure wave into eastern Nebraska.
The entire region will be well within the warm sector on Wednesday
with highs area-wide in the 80s. The models have been overforecasting
the surface dew points recently and this trend will persist for the
next several days as high pressure in the northern Gulf is
inhibiting southerly return flow. The combination of warm temps
aloft and limited low level moisture will result in an air mass
capped to surface-based convection through Wednesday. I think
Wednesday night will remain quiet and mild with a general increase
in clouds.
Things begin to change on Thursday with shower and thunderstorm
chances ramping up, especially Thursday night into Friday. We should
see a more robust return of low level moisture as the Gulf opens
up, and the western U.S. upper trof ejects northeastward across
the Rockies and Plains into the upper MS valley sending a cold
front into the area Thursday night. This front will temporarily
stall across portions of southern MO and southern IL late Friday
into Friday night, before lifting back northward on Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The
primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a
stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region
over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side
of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to
southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is
very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture.
Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest
winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when
surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models
also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but
the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer
compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for
KCOU and KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and
high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the
location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on
the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the
south side of the front).
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 60 86 64 87 / 5 5 5 10
Quincy 49 77 62 85 / 5 10 10 10
Columbia 57 87 64 87 / 5 5 5 10
Jefferson City 58 87 64 88 / 5 5 5 10
Salem 57 83 61 84 / 5 5 5 10
Farmington 57 86 61 85 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
936 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
LARGE UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND A DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
THE WESTERN HALF...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AREAS OF RAIN
CONTINUE FROM ABOUT BIG HORN AND TREASURE COUNTIES WESTWARD. COLD
FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH JUDITH GAP THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS 32 DEGREES AND HAS RECENTLY GONE THROUGH BIG TIMBER
(36 DEGREES) BUT HAS YET TO MAKE IT INTO BILLINGS. STILL BELIEVE
THE COLDER AIR WILL SINK INTO BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN HAS
MIXED WITH AND CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS THE RED LODGE AREA THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH
OUT OF WYOMING INTO CARTER COUNTY. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
EVENING WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WARMED
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND PROVIDED A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY
TO THAT AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 7 DEGREES
WARMER FOR BILLINGS TONIGHT SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS TOO HOW SOON THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER NEVADA WITH DIFFLUENT/
UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW OVER UT/WY...WITH HEALTHY TS ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN WY. NORTHERN BRANCH TROF OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND IS NOW NEAR JUDITH GAP...A FEATURE THAT WILL SUPPLY OUR
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR
DEEP ASCENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY AND HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PCPN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS...GREATEST IN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND JUST A BIT
LESS IN OUR EAST. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR S/SE
INTO THIS EVENING...WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 60F.
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH FROM CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL WY ALONG/NEAR SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED THERE.
A FEW INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS TO NOTE. FIRST IS THE AFTERNOON
TEMPS FROM CTB-GTF ARE COLDER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
21Z BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND NOTICE THE 32F READING AT MONARCH
CANYON AT 5200 FEET IN THE LITTLE BELTS INDICATIVE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION/LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT
IS THE DEWPT OF 24F AT CUT BANK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WET BULBING DOWN ONCE THAT AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED COLDER FASTER AT 850MB...SHOWING THE 0C LINE THRU JUDITH
GAP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BILLINGS BY 09Z. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE NORTH ASPECTS BEGINNING BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE BIG HORNS ARE
NOT OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED IN THIS EVENT W/ SOUTH FLOW ALOFT...BUT
STRONG ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ADVY SNOW AMTS LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SO MAIN ISSUE TODAY WAS TO WORK OUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH GREAT BASIN TROF LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW TO STALL OUT NEAR WEST
YELLOWSTONE...AGREED UPON BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT WE
WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ASCENT AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS IN OUR WEST EVEN AFTER PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY FOR LIVINGSTON AREA...SWEET GRASS
AND STILLWATER THRU TOMORROW...WITH EXPECTATION OF A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...PCPN WILL BE ABUNDANT TONIGHT BUT MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IN THIS AREA
TOMORROW...EAST OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW...SO NOT SURE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A SNOW ADVY FOR AREAS SE
OF BILLINGS INCLUDING SHERIDAN AND LAME DEER. THAT BEING SAID...
WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE PASSES SUCH AS ABERDEEN
HILL AND LAME DEER DIVIDE. WILL LET THE EVENING AND NIGHT SHIFTS
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS HERE TO SEE IF AN ADVY IS NEEDED...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW.
AS FOR BILLINGS...IT IS GOING TO SNOW THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.
SFC TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S BY TOMORROW MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S THRU THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASS IN THE CITY...AND A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE SURROUNDING HILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES. IF
TEMPS MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 20S WE COULD SEE MORE THAN
THIS...BUT NEITHER THE MODELS NOR UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THIS WILL
HAPPEN. SO WILL KEEP YELLOWSTONE COUNTY OUT OF A WINTER HIGHLIGHT
AT THIS TIME.
FOR THOSE AREAS RECEIVING SNOWFALL...IMPACTS WOULD INCLUDE TRAVEL
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PASSES....AND POSSIBLY STRESSED BUDDING
TREES FROM THE WET SNOW.
OUR FAR EAST MAY MIX WITH SNOW TOMORROW MORNING BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...IE FOR PLACES FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS EASTWARD...AND MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AND WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO STAY TO OUR EAST. AFTER A VERY CHILLY DAY
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND A COLD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS...TEMPS THURSDAY
WILL RISE TO THE 50S/NEAR 60...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH BEGINS
FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SIMILAR FEATURES AT THE 500MB
LEVEL...HOWEVER...SOME IMPORTANT THINGS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NW UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. ACTUALLY...MONTANA FALLS IN SOMEWHAT OF A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL VORT MAXES TO MAKE IT THROUGH
THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.
DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OR NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR
MOST DAYS...WITH THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT IN THE KLVM AND KBIL
AREAS. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT
THROUGH 05Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS MOUNTAINS REMAIN OBSCURED. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/038 030/057 039/067 043/061 039/057 040/058 040/058
++/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
LVM 032/038 027/060 034/063 036/057 037/055 036/053 036/056
++/O 61/B 14/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
HDN 037/040 032/057 033/068 039/063 034/060 040/059 040/060
++/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
MLS 038/044 035/057 035/067 043/061 038/059 039/058 040/059
99/O 32/W 02/T 44/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
4BQ 041/044 034/054 034/067 041/062 036/059 039/058 040/056
++/R 52/W 11/U 44/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
BHK 040/045 035/053 032/063 041/060 036/056 038/055 038/055
89/R 42/W 11/U 45/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
SHR 037/039 031/053 031/065 038/059 033/056 036/056 037/054
99/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 34/W 33/W 43/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 34-41-65.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 56-66-67.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GET WEDNESDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER
THE WEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WARM...+12C H7 TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED OVER KANSAS. AT H85...THERE
WAS SOME POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT OAX...HOWEVER IT WAS
FAIRLY DRY AT H85 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE MAP AT
20Z...CONTINUED TO SHOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S...HOWEVER...THE MID 80 HAD MADE IT INTO FALLS CITY.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THE WARM
FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD BE AROUND
LINCOLN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THERE IS SOME BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THE TRAJECTORY FOR THE BEST PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER
SOMETHING ISOLATED MAY TRY TO DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUT OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IF SOMETHING HIGH BASED DOES
DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA IS WHERE OUR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MENTIONED. THE
LATEST RAP IS HINTING AT SOMETHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VERY DRY AIR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RESULTING
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
RECORDS 95/96/99 OMAHA/LINCOLN/NORFOLK... BUT COULD GET CLOSE IF
FULL HEATING IS REALIZED. AS DISCUSSED BELOW...DUE TO THE
GREENESS...THE RFW WAS LIMITED TO THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN THE
DRIEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE RICH AIR RETURNING TO
EASTERN KANSAS AND A NARROW AREA MAKING IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA. DO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED. THERE IS A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGER
DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL VARY
THE SFC WINDS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLIER FORECAST MODELS
WERE INDICATING MVFR CIGS WERE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE REMOVED THIS
FROM THE FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE NOT LOOKING AS PROBABLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT DO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOMA AND KLNK FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ051-065-
066-078-088-089.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUSTED BIG TIME AS
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS ERRED BY AS MUCH AS 10F TOO WARM. THIS MAY
BE A PROBLEM WITH TOO MUCH VERTICAL MIXING IN THE MODELS. THE
EASTERLIES COMING OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH APPEAR TO BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S AND IT SNOWED IN MINOT.
FOR TODAY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE ECM AND A
50 PERCENT BLEND OF THE GEMREG AND MOS WHICH REPRESENT THE COOLER
MODEL SOLNS. THERE ARE 13 MODELS TO CHOOSE FROM AND AT NORTH PLATTE
THE RUC FORECASTS A HIGH OF 81F TODAY AND THE ECM 70F. SO WE WILL
TRY UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH MID
70S IN NORTH PLATTE. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SENDING COOL EASTERLIES
THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SETTING UP STRONG S-SE RETURN FLOW THROUGH WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT. THE MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT. ALL SOLNS KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR THE GFS
WHICH PRODUCES DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND THE FACT THAT NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANYWHERE NEAR
SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN BY THE GFS...THE FCST IS
DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST IN THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE
DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE CONUS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEK OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
500MB LOW CENTERS ARE VERY CLOSE IN PLACEMENT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA...GOING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE...MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST INFLUENCES FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A GOOD
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THE QUESTION AT HAND
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IF CONVECTION WILL
FIRE...AND IF IT DOES...WHAT AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY PUSHING
OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT.
BUT...MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE ONGOING BY SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON...CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WHICH DOESN/T AID IN GROWING CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CHANCES IN MAINLY FOR
THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
COLORADO. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING FAIRLY
STATIONARY...AND NOTHING LOOKING TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTH...EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRYLINE IS LOOKING TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT IS LOOKING TO PULL A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
WEST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT FOR A WHILE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME...THAT
INFLUENCE IS LOOKING TO BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...IMPACTING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...COLDER AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH WILL BE
PULLED SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS DIFFERENCES WILL CAUSE
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT A GOOD DEFORMATION
BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT DECENT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND
SETS UP...WITH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL WEST OF
A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING...WITH
THE COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF SHERIDAN AND WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...LIMITED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING ACCUMULATING...OR THE SNOW FALLING IN
GENERAL. TEMPERATURES FROM MOST MODELS ARE JUST 3 TO 4 DEGREES TOO
WARM...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO FALL AND PERHAPS
ACCUMULATE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE
POOLS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
ALSO...ON THURSDAY LOOKING FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS...BUT IF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES...COULD BRING DOWN 40KT WINDS FROM 850MB.
THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BEYOND
THAT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN FROM THE LONGER TERM
MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES AND CNTL PLAINS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUSTED BIG TIME AS
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS ERRED BY AS MUCH AS 10F TOO WARM. THIS MAY
BE A PROBLEM WITH TOO MUCH VERTICAL MIXING IN THE MODELS. THE
EASTERLIES COMING OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH APPEAR TO BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S AND IT SNOWED IN MINOT.
FOR TODAY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE ECM AND A
50 PERCENT BLEND OF THE GEMREG AND MOS WHICH REPRESENT THE COOLER
MODEL SOLNS. THERE ARE 13 MODELS TO CHOOSE FROM AND AT NORTH PLATTE
THE RUC FORECASTS A HIGH OF 81F TODAY AND THE ECM 70F. SO WE WILL
TRY UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH MID
70S IN NORTH PLATTE. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SENDING COOL EASTERLIES
THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SETTING UP STRONG S-SE RETURN FLOW THROUGH WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT. THE MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT. ALL SOLNS KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR THE GFS
WHICH PRODUCES DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND THE FACT THAT NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANYWHERE NEAR
SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN BY THE GFS...THE FCST IS
DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST IN THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE
DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE CONUS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEK OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
500MB LOW CENTERS ARE VERY CLOSE IN PLACEMENT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA...GOING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE...MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST INFLUENCES FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A GOOD
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THE QUESTION AT HAND
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IF CONVECTION WILL
FIRE...AND IF IT DOES...WHAT AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY PUSHING
OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT.
BUT...MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE ONGOING BY SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON...CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WHICH DOESN/T AID IN GROWING CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CHANCES IN MAINLY FOR
THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
COLORADO. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING FAIRLY
STATIONARY...AND NOTHING LOOKING TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTH...EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRYLINE IS LOOKING TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT IS LOOKING TO PULL A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
WEST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT FOR A WHILE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME...THAT
INFLUENCE IS LOOKING TO BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...IMPACTING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...COLDER AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH WILL BE
PULLED SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS DIFFERENCES WILL CAUSE
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT A GOOD DEFORMATION
BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT DECENT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND
SETS UP...WITH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL WEST OF
A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING...WITH
THE COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF SHERIDAN AND WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...LIMITED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING ACCUMULATING...OR THE SNOW FALLING IN
GENERAL. TEMPERATURES FROM MOST MODELS ARE JUST 3 TO 4 DEGREES TOO
WARM...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO FALL AND PERHAPS
ACCUMULATE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE
POOLS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
ALSO...ON THURSDAY LOOKING FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS...BUT IF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES...COULD BRING DOWN 40KT WINDS FROM 850MB.
THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BEYOND
THAT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN FROM THE LONGER TERM
MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A WEAK FOG SIGNAL
IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH MOISTURE BELOW THE 875MB LEVEL
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. LIGHT EAST WIND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WOULD SUPPORT SOME BR/FG TONIGHT...SO PATCHY FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE EVENING SOUNDING AT LBF HAS A FOG SIGNAL WITH UNIFORM
MOISTURE INDICATED IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET BUT THE TEMPERATURE
WOULD NEED TO BE BELOW 40F. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE THAT LOW. SINCE HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED
UPWIND OF LBF...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL PRETTY
HIGH...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST FOR LBF BUT WILL INCLUDE 3SM WITH BCFG IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
745 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO UPGRADED
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AROUND MAX HEATING HERE IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO SEEING AT LEAST A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS...WITH BLOWING DUST LOOKING MORE
LIKELY AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...
BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS NE ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PREDOMINANT AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THROUGH 07/0200UTC SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30-35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOME SMOKE MAY BE VISIBLE NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OR EAST NORTHEAST OF THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS WHERE PRESCRIBED
BURNS HAVE BEEN ONGOING...BUT NO PERCEIVABLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40
TO 45 KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST WILL
DELIVER ANOTHER PUNCH OF SPRING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND
AS CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE AREA. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED TO 994MB AT 19Z
OVER SE COLORADO AND THE 19Z RAP INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
989MB BY 00Z. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING H5 UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NV.
SURFACE OBS AT KLVS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WIND ADVISORY A
COUPLE TIMES BUT SINCE ISOLD IN NATURE WILL NOT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF A
40-50KT 700-500MB JET SLIDES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NM. WILL PASS
ALONG WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS TO OVERNIGHT CREW.
ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS THERE ISNT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT. WPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF VALUES FOR 0.10 OR MORE DO SHOW VALUES AROUND 30
PCT OVER SW FACING SLOPES OF THE NW MTS WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM LIFTED
INDICES ARE NEAR -2C FOR TMRW AFTERNOON SO THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 AND 50 PCT RANGE BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. ALSO TOSSED IN DUST FOR THE NW PLATEAU. MAX TEMPS
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE WEST THEN 5 TO 15F BLW NORMAL FOR ALL
AREAS THURSDAY. IT WILL FEEL QUITE COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. AGAIN QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARM ADVECTION
THRU THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. 700MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR +12C WHICH IS NEAR THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR MID MAY. THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABV NORMAL AGAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS ALMOST COMICAL SO WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
HAVE UPGRADED ZONES 103 AND 107 TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106 AS A WATCH AND
LET THE STELLAR NIGHT CREW TAKE ONE MORE LOOK.
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY LESS WIND...THANKS TO A POTENT COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONLY MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AND BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE EASILY REACHED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND ALL EASTERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE FAR EAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. HAINES VALUES TO BE HIGH
TO MODERATE. AREAS TO THE WEST ARE MORE IN THE GREY AREA AS TO HOW
TO TREAT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MANY HOURS...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN ZONES 103 AND 107.
WITH HAINES VALUES STILL PARTLY IN THE HIGH CATEGORY IN ZONES 103
AND 10 WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THESE ZONES TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS
A WATCH. CERTAINLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT LOW TO MODERATE HAINES VALUES AND HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BRING A MIXED SIGNAL AS TO JUST HOW CRITICAL THIS AREA
WILL BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LET NIGHT CREW MAKE THE CALL ON
ZONE 106. WILL NEED TO FACTOR IN HOW INCREDIBLY DRY IT HAS BEEN
LATELY AS WELL. AS FOR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO FINALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS. IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. A FEW RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
BUT NO WETTING PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NOT MUCH WIND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AND LEVELING OFF ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE DRY
ASIDE FROM A NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHOWER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE
BULLISH WITH A TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. JUST WISHFUL THINKING AT THIS POINT.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO HEAD SLOWLY EAST. NEAR SFC WINDS
STRONGER TODAY THAN MONDAY. SW WIND GUSTS OF 28-30 KTS AT
FMN...ABQ...AEG AND SAF. SW WIND GUSTS OF 35-37 KTS OTHER TAF
SITES. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO DUST IN ANY TAF FORECAST BUT
COULD BE SOME MODEST RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY FOR LVS...TCC AND ROW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. STRONG WINDS AGAIN WED OVER
THE E...LOWER SPEEDS IN THE WEST.
40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ515-519>540.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PREDOMINANT AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THROUGH 07/0200UTC SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30-35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOME SMOKE MAY BE VISIBLE NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OR EAST NORTHEAST OF THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS WHERE PRESCRIBED
BURNS HAVE BEEN ONGOING...BUT NO PERCEIVABLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40
TO 45 KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST WILL
DELIVER ANOTHER PUNCH OF SPRING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND
AS CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE AREA. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED TO 994MB AT 19Z
OVER SE COLORADO AND THE 19Z RAP INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
989MB BY 00Z. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING H5 UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NV.
SURFACE OBS AT KLVS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WIND ADVISORY A
COUPLE TIMES BUT SINCE ISOLD IN NATURE WILL NOT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF A
40-50KT 700-500MB JET SLIDES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NM. WILL PASS
ALONG WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS TO OVERNIGHT CREW.
ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS THERE ISNT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT. WPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF VALUES FOR 0.10 OR MORE DO SHOW VALUES AROUND 30
PCT OVER SW FACING SLOPES OF THE NW MTS WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM LIFTED
INDICES ARE NEAR -2C FOR TMRW AFTERNOON SO THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 AND 50 PCT RANGE BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. ALSO TOSSED IN DUST FOR THE NW PLATEAU. MAX TEMPS
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE WEST THEN 5 TO 15F BLW NORMAL FOR ALL
AREAS THURSDAY. IT WILL FEEL QUITE COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. AGAIN QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARM ADVECTION
THRU THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. 700MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR +12C WHICH IS NEAR THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR MID MAY. THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABV NORMAL AGAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS ALMOST COMICAL SO WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
HAVE UPGRADED ZONES 103 AND 107 TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106 AS A WATCH AND
LET THE STELLAR NIGHT CREW TAKE ONE MORE LOOK.
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY LESS WIND...THANKS TO A POTENT COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONLY MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AND BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE EASILY REACHED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND ALL EASTERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE FAR EAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. HAINES VALUES TO BE HIGH
TO MODERATE. AREAS TO THE WEST ARE MORE IN THE GREY AREA AS TO HOW
TO TREAT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MANY HOURS...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN ZONES 103 AND 107.
WITH HAINES VALUES STILL PARTLY IN THE HIGH CATEGORY IN ZONES 103
AND 10 WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THESE ZONES TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS
A WATCH. CERTAINLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT LOW TO MODERATE HAINES VALUES AND HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BRING A MIXED SIGNAL AS TO JUST HOW CRITICAL THIS AREA
WILL BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LET NIGHT CREW MAKE THE CALL ON
ZONE 106. WILL NEED TO FACTOR IN HOW INCREDIBLY DRY IT HAS BEEN
LATELY AS WELL. AS FOR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO FINALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS. IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. A FEW RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
BUT NO WETTING PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NOT MUCH WIND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AND LEVELING OFF ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE DRY
ASIDE FROM A NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHOWER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE
BULLISH WITH A TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. JUST WISHFUL THINKING AT THIS POINT.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO HEAD SLOWLY EAST. NEAR SFC WINDS
STRONGER TODAY THAN MONDAY. SW WIND GUSTS OF 28-30 KTS AT
FMN...ABQ...AEG AND SAF. SW WIND GUSTS OF 35-37 KTS OTHER TAF
SITES. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO DUST IN ANY TAF FORECAST BUT
COULD BE SOME MODEST RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY FOR LVS...TCC AND ROW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. STRONG WINDS AGAIN WED OVER
THE E...LOWER SPEEDS IN THE WEST.
40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
143 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA TODAY, BRINGING DRY AND
COOL WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A TOUCH MILDER /0-2 DEG/ ON THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE FROM 730 PM UPDATE. MOST OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY.
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS KEEPING UP
WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. SCATTERED
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FROM DIURNAL HEATING ARE FALLING APART...EXCEPT
FOR FOCUS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
ALSO...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS QUICK TO EXIT...925-850MB RH
FIELDS IN NAM AND RUC MODELS SUGGEST STRATOCUMULUS WILL PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT
MONDAY MORNING. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 330 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ONIDA
COUNTY.
FOR TONIGHT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT IN THE NRN CWA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY INTO
THE LATE EVENING PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ANY FROST FORMATION IS UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVER JAMES BAY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE/TUE NIGHT THEN TO THE
NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WEAKER WINDS AND PARTLY TO MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED FROST IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED HERE. MAX TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH MODERATION INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT
WARMER. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THU NGT. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH 70S. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS
LATE FRI AND FRI NGT PROBABLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO THE EAST. DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND ON WHERE THE NEXT
STORM TRACKS NE. KEPT CHC POPS BOTH DAYS BUT SATURDAY MAY END UP
DRY BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SUNDAY LOW FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
STRATOCU HAS SPREAD INTO MOST NY TERMINALS WITH BKN VFR CIGS
PREDOMINANT THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT RME, ITH AND BGM CLOSER TO DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SYR AND ELM WILL REMAIN VFR. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR AVP TO SNEAK IN WITH A 3KFT CIG FROM NOW THROUGH 10Z THIS
MORNING. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS THEY ARE
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AND WILL NOT CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM ALOFT AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING WITH STRATOCU
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR BRIEFLY BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIRRUS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY WITH ALL TERMINALS AT VFR.
WINDS FROM THE WNW WILL GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NIGHT TO WED...MAINLY VFR.
WED NIGHT TO FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
103 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MEANDER ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THERE COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF HATTERAS...NEW BERN AND GREENVILLE NC...AND IS
ON-TRACK TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN NC BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE 00Z NAM IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 03Z RUC AND 02Z HRRR WITH THE TIMING
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 KNOTS WINDS AT 1500
FEET IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR) ARE HELPING DEEPEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...ESPECIALLY
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS NEAR-TERM EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER LOOKS QUIET WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDINESS NE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE
LOWER 60S WITH A FEW MID 50S POSSIBLE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE DAY OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER WITH
BETTER NOTED SFC CONVERGENCE AND SOME WAA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN OF WARM WEATHER. THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION PAIRED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANGES MAY BEGIN
ON SATURDAY AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME THE CAPPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THUS IS EFFECTS LESSENED. RAIN CHANCES MAY THEN
RETURN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KLBT/KILM
AROUND 09Z AND KCRE/KFLO/KMYR AROUND 12Z. W-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS
(STRONGER ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A HEFTY
LOW-LEVEL JET) WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z. THE FRONT WILL STALL...THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE EXACT TIMING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRB
WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS OVERHEAD...BUT BY 18Z EXPECT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 KTS IN A COMBINED SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS NOSING ITS WAY DOWN
THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST
NORTH OF HATTERAS BUT SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTER NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK AS THIS FRONT
SLIPS INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY BEFORE STALLING.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS IN SPOTS EARLY
THIS MORNING...FED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET WITH 30-35 KNOT WIND SPEEDS A
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 FEET ALONG THE SC
COAST TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE EFFECTIVE
FETCH IS LONGEST. FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-MORNING NEAR-TERM UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE
AREA THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AMZ250 EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF MONDAY AND A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW WINDS OF
10-15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP FROM THE SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY
AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...CREATING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM...BUT AT SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY A 4-6 SEC WIND WAVE...FROM THE SW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH A E/NE WIND CHOP DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
CREATE A CONFUSED SPECTRUM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST ZONES WILL BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW. OFFSHORE
FLOW TENDS TO DIMINISH THE RANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS OFTEN OBSERVED
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE. HOWEVER OVERALL
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL ANYWAY AND SO THIS EFFECT WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL. VEERING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT MAKES ITS WAY
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. ON THURSDAY SPEED MAY BE CAPPED
AT 10KT YIELDING JUST 2 FT WAVES. BOTH WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE
FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DEPICT THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS MONTANA WITH A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CURRENT BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS
REFLECTIVITY`S EXTENDING TO NEAR SLOPE AND BOWMAN COUNTIES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NO
EVIDENCE THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST.
THE GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND MOVES
IT TO NEAR DICKINSON BY 12Z MONDAY. THE HRRR AND SREF INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF POPS AS THIS SHORTWAVE SCOOTS EAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. PLENTY OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PER
FOG/STRATUS LOOP WHICH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. BACK EDGE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY AS OF 0230 UTC. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AROUND 06-07 UTC...BUT DID KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE LATEST
PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. LATEST 00 UTC HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING
UP NORTH OF BILLINGS MT. HRRR BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND 07 UTC...AND THEN DISSIPATES BY AROUND 11
UTC BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE RAP DID NOT
INITIALIZE AS WELL BUT DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THAT DRY
UP BEFORE REACHING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR
NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AS WE HEAD PAST MIDNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION HERE WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS AS PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. BACK EDGE OF MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FROM
AROUND SHERWOOD SOUTHWEST TO KENMARE AND STANLEY. WEST OF THIS
LINE...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS OVER FOR THE EVENING. BEST
AREA FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS OVER BOTTINEAU...
ROLETTE...MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTIES...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER
RENVILLE AND WARD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELIMINATED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING AS TRAILING EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS DRY AND ANY PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND. ACTUALLY A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON POPS BASED ON HRRR/RAP OUTPUT. ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WILL
LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW. WEATHER CAMERAS FROM RAY...PORTAL AND CARPIO
INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOK WILL BE OVER THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL...ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO THE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY AREAS...PREVIOUS
INSOLATION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. WITH
THE BACK EDGE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...THINK 1 TO 2
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE THE EXTENT TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND
CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS
NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE
INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AFTER 06 UTC.
FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH
DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4
INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN
PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
CIGS BETWEEN 3500FT AND 4500FT AGL WILL SLOWLY RISE AND BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT BY 12Z MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KMOT WHERE IFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 10Z MONDAY...BEFORE CIGS
IMPROVE TO MVFR. THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SCT/BKN
VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SURGE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AERODROMES OF KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO BEGIN DETERIORATING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED DOWN INTO FARGO...SO ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH. INCLUDED A BIT MORE SNOW MIXING IN AS WEB CAMS AND
OBS HAVE SHOWN SOME FLAKES IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THINK
THAT THE BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN HAS BEEN FILLING IN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...FINALLY
SATURATING DOWN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AS MODELS SHOW THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HARVEY HAS HAD SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASS JUST TO THE
WEST OF OUR CWA...SO INCLUDED SOME RAIN AND SNOW MENTION IN THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S. DO NOT THINK
WE WILL HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RADAR RETURNS HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME SATURATING AND NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LIKELY POPS
SLOWLY RAMPING UP TO DEFINITE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM KMBX (MINOT...ND) IS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS SOURIS RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER
GROUND TRUTH AS FAR AS PRECIP REPORTS IS FURTHER WEST...ROUGHLY
ALONG A WILLISTON TO ESTEVAN (SASK) LINE. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH A
RUC/NAM SOLUTION...PRIMARILY USING RUC AS GUIDANCE THROUGH 09Z
THEN TRENDING TOWARD NAM FOR MONDAY.
TONIGHT...A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
AND INTO W CNTRL MN TONIGHT. WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H700 FG
FORCING WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AS THE VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CIGS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 4K FT IN
PORTIONS OF NW ND...GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO
THE SFC. OVERALL...HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR A BIT BULLISH ON
MOISTURE AND EXPECTING ONLY TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OVER DVL
BASIN. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THIS REGION WITH LIKELIES IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AS
ACTIVITY GETS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING. BY 12Z...NAM SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
MAJORITY OF AREA AND DRYING THINGS UP SHORTLY AFT 12Z.
AGAIN...HAVE USED RUC AS GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY POPS THROUGH 09Z WITH
NAM FOR THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...THEN DRY ON MONDAY. ONE CAVEAT...RUC
DOES HOLD ON TO SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS AREA (MORE IN LINE WITH NAM).
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S AND DID MENTION SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IF THERE IS A CHANGE OVER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF AREA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INCREASED SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMP TO CLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AND SW FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING AND
EJECTING OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER WRN DAKOTAS TUE MORNING. SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN
DAKOTAS. 12Z GFS SHOWING INCREASING H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO CNTRL
DAKOTAS...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND ONE INCH BY 18Z. GFS ALSO
SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORMING MID DAY TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELIES IN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...WITH NAM FOCUSING ON DVL BASIN...WHICH IS
WHERE I WILL LIMIT LIKELIES FOR TUE AFTN. CURRENT QPF VALUES
APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND...BUT PLENTY
OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS.
WED...INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO EAST DURING DAY WED...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY UP...HOWEVER MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRYING
OUT THE DVL LAKE BASIN...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES RATHER BULLISH
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND EVEN THE NAM SHOWS SOME POPS OVER THE
AREA. INHERITED CHANCE POPS THEREFORE SEEMS
REASONABLE...SUPPORTED BY CONSALL..AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO TRY AND TIME CLEARING FOR WED AFTN.
WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY ALL
THE MODELS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES
APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS COVER
AND ACTUAL TIMING OF SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KGFK AND KTVF...AND KDVL HAS GONE
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 500 FT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS IN
THOSE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD FROM 06 TO 12Z WHERE WE ARE
EXPECTING RAIN...SPREADING INTO KBJI LATER TONIGHT. KFAR IS
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY TOOK A
BRIEF DIP TO MVFR AND WENT BACK UP. THINK THAT LOWER CIGS WILL
REMAIN FOR A BIT LONGER IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE RAIN HAS
TAPERED OFF...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALL VFR BY MID MORNING.
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES.
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY
GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO
OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON
NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE SHORE VERSUS 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALL
THANKS TO LAKE ERIE.
LATEST HRRR MODEL IS JUST NOW COMING IN AND IT INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 08Z UNTIL 13Z
TO 14Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. SO THAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL NOT PROBABLY ONLY 5
TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. JET ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
HINGE ON THE LOCATIONS OF ANY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS
CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WAS SUPPOSED TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STALL
ACROSS NRN OHIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT BECOMES HARDER TO TIME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN AS THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC THROUGH MONDAY.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE OFFERING A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH EACH
OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST IS RATHER VAGUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS AND TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
EXCEPT UNDER A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EAST TO SOUTH FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 1 TO
4 FEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE HIGHEST WAVES SHIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTH SHORE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IF WINDS END UP BEING STRONGER OR THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO
SHIFT NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND WAVES
DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA
BORDER NEAR SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AS DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
NAM OVER DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID
WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO
FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMER PREVIEW WILL BE AIRING ON THE START FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
WE WERE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS A BIT SLOWER ON INCREASING
POPS...AND A BIT HIGHER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CRW-CKB
CORRIDOR ON EAST ON FRIDAY. PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY FRIDAY...AS INITIAL ENERGY WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH LIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
500 MB DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PASS BY OUR VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HIGHEST POPS ARE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE FRONT NEVER
CLEARS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF BUILDS
BACK RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR DAY 7/MONDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST
BY MOTHERS DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT NEVER CLEARS...STILL VULNERABLE
TO ANY WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. I TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
SLIGHTER WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HTS AND CRW EXTENDING DUE EAST/WEST
EXHIBITING RELATIVELY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...DECREASED EXTENT
OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER
DEWPTS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND CLOUD COVER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV THIS
MORNING KEPT CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON...VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE E WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...LINGERING EARLY MORNING MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE
ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MVFR IN SHRA / TSRA THIS
PERIOD...WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KTB/JM/LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
304 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA
BORDER NEAR SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AS DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
NAM OVER DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID
WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO
FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASING FORECAST ON WARM FRONT EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. YET...AS THAT 500
MB TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT IN OHIO VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 500 MB TROF IN SOUTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SO AFTER A PREVIEW OF SUMMER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...
HAVE POPS INCREASING DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
INITIAL APPROACH OF THE MIDWESTERN FRONT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE LATE FRIDAY WITH THAT ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. THEN EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOTHERS
DAY WEEKEND. STILL THINK WE CAN KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN GUIDANCE...COUNTING ON NO LARGE
INTERVALS OF CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HTS AND CRW EXTENDING DUE EAST/WEST
EXHIBITING RELATIVELY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...DECREASED EXTENT
OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER
DEWPTS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND CLOUD COVER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV THIS
MORNING KEPT CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON...VFR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE E WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...LINGERING EARLY MORNING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MVFR IN SHRA / TSRA THIS
PERIOD...WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA
BORDER NEAR SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AS DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
NAM OVER DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT
EXITS TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUIET...HOWEVER...WILL BE INCHING TOWARDS A MUCH WARMER...AND MORE
HUMID PERIOD. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...WITH
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. MUCH WARMER AIR AS OF LATE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE
RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASING FORECAST ON WARM FRONT EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. YET...AS THAT 500
MB TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT IN OHIO VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 500 MB TROF IN SOUTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SO AFTER A PREVIEW OF SUMMER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...
HAVE POPS INCREASING DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
INITIAL APPROACH OF THE MIDWESTERN FRONT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE LATE FRIDAY WITH THAT ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. THEN EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOTHERS
DAY WEEKEND. STILL THINK WE CAN KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN GUIDANCE...COUNTING ON NO LARGE
INTERVALS OF CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HTS AND CRW EXTENDING DUE EAST/WEST
EXHIBITING RELATIVELY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...DECREASED EXTENT
OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER
DEWPTS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND CLOUD COVER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV THIS
MORNING KEPT CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON...VFR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE E WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...LINGERING EARLY MORNING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MVFR IN SHRA / TSRA THIS
PERIOD...WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
NUDGE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM APPRECIABLY ALL AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL...WILL TRANSLATE
LIKELY POPS TO THE NRN/NERN CWFA THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE SW CWFA. HIGHER POPS ARE BEING EMPLOYED
N AND NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S/WV IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS
EAST SO HAVE LOWERED THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A MINIMUM IN PCPN COVERAGE. A
STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MODELS
SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CWFA BY THIS AFTN. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FORECASTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES QUITE DIFFICULT. HAVE USED A SREF BLEND AS A STARTING
POINT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR N AND NE
TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM EARLY ON NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH BUT REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
FOR TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AMPLE SUNSHINE ACRS THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN
WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH
TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONCUR THAT A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORMS WITH
THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AS WEAK FORCING IS
DEPICTED IN THIS AREA. THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BECOME WARM SECTORED
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL RESIDE ON FRI/SAT/SUN
ATTENDANT TO APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...PUSHING A
SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME RANGE IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT DIMINISHES SAT/SUN AS DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE
DISTRIBUTION/TIMING IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH TIME.
SHORTWAVE EJECTS AND DEEPENS WITH A LITTLE MORE FERVOR ON THURS
AFTN/FRIDAY...BEING ENVELOPED INTO LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW OVER SCNTL
CANADA ON FRI AS IT PASSES WELL TO OUR NW INTO MN AND WRN ONTARIO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH ALLOWS
A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. WITH
PARENT DYNAMICS ALREADY ABSORBED INTO STATIONARY SCNTL CANADA
CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL FRONTOLYTIC PROCESSES WILL BE ONGOING AND HAVE
DOUBTS HOW STRONG /OR FAR SOUTH/ THIS FRONT WILL GET THROUGH
SATURDAY GIVEN UPSTREAM ENERGY COMING BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE WEST. MOST 04.12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO TRICKLE FRONT INTO THE
OHIO RIVER AREA BEFORE STALLING...AND PERHAPS AWAITING SRN STREAM
WAVE TO BE INDUCED AND THEN RIDE ALONG IT. EITHER WAY...ALL 04.12Z
AND 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUPPORT ENSEMBLE MEAN/PROBABILISTICS
THAT SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN MODEST INSTBY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT/AND
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. NOT REALLY TOO CONCERNED ABOUT A MORE
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT - LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW IS RATHER
MARGINAL AS THE FRONT LOSES STEAM...AND AND LACK OF FURTHER HEIGHT
FALLS AND SLOWING FRONT ISN/T TYPICALLY THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IF SRN STREAM
WAVE INDEED RIPPLES THE BOUNDARY SAT/SAT NIGHT /AS PER 04.00Z
ECMWF/. A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE...WHICH MAKES SUNDAY FORECAST
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN IS FAIRLY LIGHT (AND SHOULD STAY IN THE
VFR CATEGORY)...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
EXISTED...AND COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO (AS INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS) IS
THAT ONLY VFR RAIN SHOWERS (WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES) WILL
PREVAIL FOR A WHILE. RAIN WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
NWS WILMINGTON OHIO FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WINDS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING...AND A VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE DAYTON AND
CINCINNATI TAFS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
553 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
NUDGE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM APPRECIABLY ALL AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL...WILL TRANSLATE
LIKELY POPS TO THE NRN/NERN CWFA THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE SW CWFA. HIGHER POPS ARE BEING EMPLOYED
N AND NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S/WV IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS
EAST SO HAVE LOWERED THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A MINIMUM IN PCPN COVERAGE. A
STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MODELS
SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CWFA BY THIS AFTN. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FORECASTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES QUITE DIFFICULT. HAVE USED A SREF BLEND AS A STARTING
POINT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR N AND NE
TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM EARLY ON NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH BUT REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
FOR TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY. AMPLE SUNSHINE ACRS THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN
WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH
TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONCUR THAT A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORMS WITH
THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AS WEAK FORCING IS
DEPICTED IN THIS AREA. THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BECOME WARM SECTORED
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL RESIDE ON FRI/SAT/SUN
ATTENDANT TO APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...PUSHING A
SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME RANGE IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT DIMINISHES SAT/SUN AS DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE
DISTRIBUTION/TIMING IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH TIME.
SHORTWAVE EJECTS AND DEEPENS WITH A LITTLE MORE FERVOR ON THURS
AFTN/FRIDAY...BEING ENVELOPED INTO LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW OVER SCNTL
CANADA ON FRI AS IT PASSES WELL TO OUR NW INTO MN AND WRN ONTARIO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH ALLOWS
A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. WITH
PARENT DYNAMICS ALREADY ABSORBED INTO STATIONARY SCNTL CANADA
CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL FRONTOLYTIC PROCESSES WILL BE ONGOING AND HAVE
DOUBTS HOW STRONG /OR FAR SOUTH/ THIS FRONT WILL GET THROUGH
SATURDAY GIVEN UPSTREAM ENERGY COMING BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE WEST. MOST 04.12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO TRICKLE FRONT INTO THE
OHIO RIVER AREA BEFORE STALLING...AND PERHAPS AWAITING SRN STREAM
WAVE TO BE INDUCED AND THEN RIDE ALONG IT. EITHER WAY...ALL 04.12Z
AND 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUPPORT ENSEMBLE MEAN/PROBABILISTICS
THAT SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN MODEST INSTBY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT/AND
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. NOT REALLY TOO CONCERNED ABOUT A MORE
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT - LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW IS RATHER
MARGINAL AS THE FRONT LOSES STEAM...AND AND LACK OF FURTHER HEIGHT
FALLS AND SLOWING FRONT ISN/T TYPICALLY THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IF SRN STREAM
WAVE INDEED RIPPLES THE BOUNDARY SAT/SAT NIGHT /AS PER 04.00Z
ECMWF/. A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE...WHICH MAKES SUNDAY FORECAST
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE TRANQUIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN STORM LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL NOT VERY HIGH...SO CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN KEPT RATHER GENERIC
IN THE TAFS. WHILE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR...HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE DAY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COLUMBUS TAF SITES)...BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE NWS WILMINGTON OHIO FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WINDS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN CARRYING. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY CARRYING
DEVELOPMENT STARTING BY 06Z AROUND FSD AND EAST...WITH THIS
ORDINARY CONVECTION THEN MOVING NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. BOTH THE 18Z AND NEW 00Z NAM12 INDICATE A MID LEVEL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A TIGHT THETA E GRADIENT WHICH CLOSELY
MATCHES THE HRRR FORECAST DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
FADING OFF TO THE EAST AS WE HAD BEFORE. MAIN POINT OF THE UPDATE
IS WE SEEM TO NEED A LITTLE MORE THAN BARELY MENTIONABLE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE EASTERN SD BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
NOT MUCH GOING ON AROUND THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
THE THIS TIME. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND STILL COULD SEE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF OUR EAST LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING THETA
E ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. ELEVATED
CAPE WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY DECENT...RUNNING AROUND 1500
J/KG...THOUGH ANY PARCEL WILL BE LIFTED ABOVE THE BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THUS LOOKING AT ANY USABLE SHEAR IN THE FORM OF MAINLY SPEED
SHEAR...AND THAT BEING AROUND 25 KTS. IN LIGHT OF THAT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
FORCING IS LOST. AFTER THAT...THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NUDGING INTO
NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. WITH A STRENGTHENING CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...NOT EXPECTING
CONVECTION THROUGH THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL FRONT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO STREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY REMAINING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST...TO THE 80S OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA...REACHING 90
AROUND SIOUX CITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TAKEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SURFACE LOWS AND GIVEN THEM A DECIDED TILT TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST SOLUTION...MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. BECAUSE OF THIS...
NUDGED THE DRY SLOT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF
NORTHWEST IA WHERE WE LEFT THINGS DRY. THEN SLOWLY BUT SURELY
INCREASED POPS HEADING WESTWARD TO WHERE LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE WARRANTED INTO THE DEEP...COOL AND SATURATED AIR MASS IN CENTRAL
SD. THE NAM12 AND HIRES NAM ARE BRINGING A CLUSTER OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE LOW...ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY JUST A BIT FURTHER
TO THE WEST. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE SCENARIO OF THAT HAPPENING
AS THE SATURATION IS QUITE DEEP AS MENTIONED ABOVE. CONCERNING
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT NOW IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER PANS OUT IT LOOKS TO BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM YANKTON...TO
SIOUX FALLS...TO BROOKINGS AND MARSHALL. THESE LOCATIONS ARE PLACED
IN BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST...AND THE DRY SLOTTING
PROJECTED IN NORTHWEST IA. STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND 850MB MU
CAPES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THAT
SAID...THE TREMENDOUS VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER
WILL NOT BE TAPPED...SO IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS...NOT EXPECTING A
TON OF IT...NOR ESPECIALLY STRONG. BUT CALCULATED BULK SHEAR VECTORS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WHICH SHOW A STOUT 40-50 KNOTS DURING THE
EVENING SO THAT PARAMETER IS RATHER STRONG...IT JUST MAY BE HARD TO
MAINTAIN AN UPDRAFT FOR VERY LONG. FOR LOWS...THIS TIME AROUND SOME
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKED A BIT TOO COLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE DEGREE OF PROJECTED CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE PREFERRED LOWS USING MORE OF THE RAW BLEND
NUMBERS AND SOME ECMWF MOS.
THURSDAY IS VERY INTERESTING IN THAT THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS OF A
WET DAY IN THE AREA. THE WESTERN ZONES ARE STILL IN THE DEEP...COOL
AND SATURATED AIR. BUT FROM I 29 AND POINTS EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THE CRUX OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE MOVES UP AND
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT OF THE DRY
SLOT IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FILL IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE LINGERING CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR FAR WEST. IN THE MIDDLE...
RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY WHERE THE LAST REMNANTS OF
DRY SLOTTING MAY EXIST. BUT IF THESE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE...NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA STANDS TO RECEIVE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REALLY ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING A DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MANY
AREAS WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...REVERTING
BACK TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF A FEW DAYS AGO AND KEEPING THINGS WET.
SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBLEMATIC ON THURSDAY AND COULD STAY EAST OF OUR
AREA. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE GFS
925MB-850MB MU CAPE VALUES AVERAGING CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG EAST OF I
29. BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE VEERING WIND SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER MAY NOT BE TAPPED AS THE STORMS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. IN ADDITION...MANY HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29
WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED BY MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD INHIBIT OVERALL INSTABILITY.
THE POWERFUL WAVE EXITS NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKENS. OPTED TO PLACE LIKELY POPS FOR LINGERING RAINFALL IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH A DRY FRIDAY TO FOLLOW. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
PLEASANT RIGHT NOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY IN BRINGING A ROBUST SHORT WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS OUR ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
AND IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO LIKELY OR
EVEN CATEGORICAL IN FUTURE FORECASTS. INSTABILITY AT AND BELOW 925MB
IS MEAGER...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY UPSTAIRS AROUND
850-800MB SO CARRIED A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. DID NOT ALTER THE GOING HIGHS MUCH AT ALL AS MIXING
STILL SUGGESTS READINGS GENERALLY ABOUT 65 TO 70.
THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY BE NEED TO BE
DROPPED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES IN FUTURE FORECASTS. BUT THEN THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE RAPIDLY IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. ACTUALLY THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/UKMET ARE IN ONE CAMP IN TAKING
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF THEN EJECTS THE WAVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE 12Z GFS IS A SEVERE
OUTLIER IN THAT AFTER THE SHORT WAVE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
EXITS...IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...IT IS PROBABLE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
IN COLORADO...THEN EXIT VIA THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT KEEPING INSTABILITY LIMITED.
FOR NOW...THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN REFLECTS A BLEND COMPOSITE...BUT
HEDGED THE PRECIP AND INSTABILITY FORECAST DEFINITELY TOWARD THE
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET. THEREFORE THE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED. NOW
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
HIGH TEMPERATURES TURN OUT A BIT COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ALREADY BLENDED SOME COOLER GUIDANCE
READINGS INTO THE ALLBLEND TO BEGIN A SLOW TREND TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION. FOR CONVECTION...WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED
CONVECTION EAST AND NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS...THE CHANCES DECREASE
MARKEDLY TOWARD SIOUX FALLS AND ARE EVEN LESS IN HURON AND SIOUX
CITY. SIMILARLY...FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN SW MN WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE
IN SIOUX CITY AND SIOUX FALLS AND A LOW CHANCE IN HURON. SO
DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY CONVECTION TO TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. AS
FOR CLOUDS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS AS
THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. FOR SIOUX CITY...THE
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED BUT WITH
THE FRONT APPROACHING SIOUX FALL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
DID KEEP A BROKEN MVFR CIG IN FROM 16Z TO 20Z. FOR KHON AS
MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED WEST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS THERE AS WELL
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...AGAIN...MOSTLY LIKELY MVFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN CARRYING. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY CARRYING
DEVELOPMENT STARTING BY 06Z AROUND FSD AND EAST...WITH THIS
ORDINARY CONVECTION THEN MOVING NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. BOTH THE 18Z AND NEW 00Z NAM12 INDICATE A MID LEVEL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A TIGHT THETA E GRADIENT WHICH CLOSELY
MATCHES THE HRRR FORECAST DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF
FADING OFF TO THE EAST AS WE HAD BEFORE. MAIN POINT OF THE UPDATE
IS WE SEEM TO NEED A LITTLE MORE THAN BARELY MENTIONABLE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE EASTERN SD BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
NOT MUCH GOING ON AROUND THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
THE THIS TIME. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND STILL COULD SEE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF OUR EAST LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING THETA
E ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. ELEVATED
CAPE WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY DECENT...RUNNING AROUND 1500
J/KG...THOUGH ANY PARCEL WILL BE LIFTED ABOVE THE BETTER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THUS LOOKING AT ANY USABLE SHEAR IN THE FORM OF MAINLY SPEED
SHEAR...AND THAT BEING AROUND 25 KTS. IN LIGHT OF THAT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
FORCING IS LOST. AFTER THAT...THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NUDGING INTO
NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. WITH A STRENGTHENING CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...NOT EXPECTING
CONVECTION THROUGH THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL FRONT...WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO STREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY REMAINING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST...TO THE 80S OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA...REACHING 90
AROUND SIOUX CITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TAKEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SURFACE LOWS AND GIVEN THEM A DECIDED TILT TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST SOLUTION...MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. BECAUSE OF THIS...
NUDGED THE DRY SLOT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF
NORTHWEST IA WHERE WE LEFT THINGS DRY. THEN SLOWLY BUT SURELY
INCREASED POPS HEADING WESTWARD TO WHERE LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE WARRANTED INTO THE DEEP...COOL AND SATURATED AIR MASS IN CENTRAL
SD. THE NAM12 AND HIRES NAM ARE BRINGING A CLUSTER OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE LOW...ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY JUST A BIT FURTHER
TO THE WEST. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE SCENARIO OF THAT HAPPENING
AS THE SATURATION IS QUITE DEEP AS MENTIONED ABOVE. CONCERNING
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT NOW IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER PANS OUT IT LOOKS TO BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM YANKTON...TO
SIOUX FALLS...TO BROOKINGS AND MARSHALL. THESE LOCATIONS ARE PLACED
IN BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST...AND THE DRY SLOTTING
PROJECTED IN NORTHWEST IA. STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND 850MB MU
CAPES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THAT
SAID...THE TREMENDOUS VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER
WILL NOT BE TAPPED...SO IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS...NOT EXPECTING A
TON OF IT...NOR ESPECIALLY STRONG. BUT CALCULATED BULK SHEAR VECTORS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WHICH SHOW A STOUT 40-50 KNOTS DURING THE
EVENING SO THAT PARAMETER IS RATHER STRONG...IT JUST MAY BE HARD TO
MAINTAIN AN UPDRAFT FOR VERY LONG. FOR LOWS...THIS TIME AROUND SOME
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKED A BIT TOO COLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE DEGREE OF PROJECTED CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE PREFERRED LOWS USING MORE OF THE RAW BLEND
NUMBERS AND SOME ECMWF MOS.
THURSDAY IS VERY INTERESTING IN THAT THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS OF A
WET DAY IN THE AREA. THE WESTERN ZONES ARE STILL IN THE DEEP...COOL
AND SATURATED AIR. BUT FROM I 29 AND POINTS EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THE CRUX OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE MOVES UP AND
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT OF THE DRY
SLOT IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FILL IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE LINGERING CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR FAR WEST. IN THE MIDDLE...
RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY WHERE THE LAST REMNANTS OF
DRY SLOTTING MAY EXIST. BUT IF THESE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE...NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA STANDS TO RECEIVE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REALLY ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING A DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MANY
AREAS WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...REVERTING
BACK TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF A FEW DAYS AGO AND KEEPING THINGS WET.
SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBLEMATIC ON THURSDAY AND COULD STAY EAST OF OUR
AREA. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE GFS
925MB-850MB MU CAPE VALUES AVERAGING CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG EAST OF I
29. BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE VEERING WIND SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER MAY NOT BE TAPPED AS THE STORMS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. IN ADDITION...MANY HIGHS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29
WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED BY MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD INHIBIT OVERALL INSTABILITY.
THE POWERFUL WAVE EXITS NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKENS. OPTED TO PLACE LIKELY POPS FOR LINGERING RAINFALL IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH A DRY FRIDAY TO FOLLOW. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
PLEASANT RIGHT NOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY IN BRINGING A ROBUST SHORT WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS OUR ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
AND IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO LIKELY OR
EVEN CATEGORICAL IN FUTURE FORECASTS. INSTABILITY AT AND BELOW 925MB
IS MEAGER...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY UPSTAIRS AROUND
850-800MB SO CARRIED A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. DID NOT ALTER THE GOING HIGHS MUCH AT ALL AS MIXING
STILL SUGGESTS READINGS GENERALLY ABOUT 65 TO 70.
THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY BE NEED TO BE
DROPPED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES IN FUTURE FORECASTS. BUT THEN THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE RAPIDLY IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. ACTUALLY THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/UKMET ARE IN ONE CAMP IN TAKING
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF THEN EJECTS THE WAVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE 12Z GFS IS A SEVERE
OUTLIER IN THAT AFTER THE SHORT WAVE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
EXITS...IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...IT IS PROBABLE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
IN COLORADO...THEN EXIT VIA THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT KEEPING INSTABILITY LIMITED.
FOR NOW...THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN REFLECTS A BLEND COMPOSITE...BUT
HEDGED THE PRECIP AND INSTABILITY FORECAST DEFINITELY TOWARD THE
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET. THEREFORE THE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED. NOW
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
HIGH TEMPERATURES TURN OUT A BIT COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ALREADY BLENDED SOME COOLER GUIDANCE
READINGS INTO THE ALLBLEND TO BEGIN A SLOW TREND TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 H IS PRIMARY LOW CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
LOWEST CEILINGS ARE AROUND KHON AT 5000 FT. AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES...EXPECT
SOME STRATUS TO FORM FIRST AROUND KSUX AND THEN TOWARD KFSD EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WITH MOISTURE RATHER
LIMITED...KEPT CIGS AROUND 2000 FT FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS AT KSUX
AND KFSD. EXPECT THAT THE SAME LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO KHON
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS
POINT...EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTHEAST OF
KSUX AND WEST OF KHON. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT
AROUND KSUX. A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE IN KHON LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS POINT...THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO
THE TAF. WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES GOES THROUGH KSUX TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
633 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus with MVFR CIGS returns along the I-10 corridor around 9Z and
spreads northward. A few patches of stratus may affect KSJT, but
most should stay south. Winds will increase mid morning and further
increase late afternoon as lee trough strengthens. Isolated dryline
thunderstorm possible late Wednesday afternoon, but coverage too low
to put TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Expect hot and dry weather this afternoon and a chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A dryline was located along a
Fredrick, OK to Abilene to Sonora line at 20Z. Latest SPC
mesoanaylsis indicates weak instability(MLCAPES 500 to 1000 J/KG)
ahead of the dryline over the eastern part of our area. The
remaining convective inhibition or low level inversion may be
erased for isolated storms to develop mainly after 22Z across the
northern Heartland and eastern Big Country. the HRRR convective
allowing model has been showing isolated storms developing the
past several hourly runs. High LCLs and an inverted-v sounding
profiles favor strong gusty winds and hail with the stronger
storms. Also, storms will produce dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Any storms that do develop will exit the area or
quickly dissipate by 02Z. The rest of tonight will see low level
southerly flow and low level moisture returning. The dryline will
retreat to just west of our area by 12Z Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be in the 60s to around 70.
For Wednesday, the morning looks quiet with low clouds across
much of the area. Low clouds will break up across much of the area
by early afternoon. Aloft, a strong upper level trough will be
located over the southern Rockies. A dryline will move slowly east
to along a Haskell to San Angelo line by late in the afternoon.
Low level convergence along the dryline and increasing large scale
ascent from approaching trough will cause isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop across much of West Central Texas mainly
after 20Z. The combination of some instability(MLCAPES of 1500 to
2000 J/KG) and 0-6KM bulk shear of 45 to 50 knots, will result in
some storms being severe. The main threats will be large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Highs will
be 90 to 95.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
By Wednesday night, the large upper level trough currently near
Las Vegas will be moving east through the desert southwest toward
west Texas. This feature will bring synoptic scale upward motion
with it into west and west central Texas from Wednesday evening
into Thursday.
Have generally bumped PoPs up again with this forecast, as we get
closer to the event, and become more confident in thunderstorms
taking place. In addition, have added the mention of severe
thunderstorms to the forecast for Wednesday evening, carrying over
the mention from the afternoon. With 0-6km bulk shear values of
40-55 knots, and SFC and mixed layer CAPE values ranging from near
1000 J/kg to as high as 1500 J/kg, there will be enough
instability, and storm organization carried over into the evening
hours for the threat of severe weather to be possible. As with the
previous period, the main concerns will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the event evolves overnight, the instability will wane,
and thus have the mention of severe weather in the forecast only
through 06Z. In addition to the severe weather possibility, some
of the thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, and localized
flooding will be possible, mainly in urban areas.
On Thursday, we will likely continue to see a broken line of
showers with embedded thunderstorms for the eastern half of the
area, especially during the morning hours as steering flow remain
southwest, making the exit of precipitation a little slow.
Severe weather concern will be limited with this mainly morning
activity.
One more weak shortwave will move through the area Friday
afternoon and evening, possibly providing one more shot at
precipitation for southeastern areas Friday afternoon and night.
Expect temperatures to continue to be above normal through the
forecast period. Thursday and Friday will be the cooler days
averaging mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will
quickly warm back into the mid 90s for the weekend.
Have not made any significant changes beyond the end of this week
as there is still a lot of uncertainty associated with the
forecast for early next week. The GFS is much more progressive and
weaker with an upper level system, sending a cold front into the
area Sunday night whereas the ECMWF is slower and stronger, and
waits until Monday evening to send a cold front into the area.
FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening, generally west of a Haskell to Bronte line. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM across the western Big
Country and Northern Concho Valley due to RH values of 7 to 12
percent and southwest winds around 20 mph. Also, ERC values are at
record levels across this area. An increase in low level moisture
late tonight should result in RH values recovering to 60 to 80
percent across much of West Central Texas. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon west of a Haskell to
Ozona line due to RH values of 15 to 25 percent and wind speeds of
15 mph. Thunderstorms will bring potential wetting rains across
mainly northern and eastern areas Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 94 67 87 61 / 5 30 50 30 10
San Angelo 68 94 68 91 57 / 5 20 40 20 10
Junction 64 91 70 87 66 / 10 20 50 40 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...Sterling...
Taylor.
&&
$$
21/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EVENING RNK SOUNDING SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES NEAR 2K BEING CAPPED ALOFT VIA A DECENT INVERSION JUST
ABOVE 7H. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH BETTER SURFACE
COOLING ONGOING AS THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS NOW FLOPPED BACK TO AS
FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. IN ADDITION...SUPPORT ALOFT LACKING
ATTM TO ERODE THE CAP ...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE
SW WHERE THE AIR REMAINS ARID ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER
THE NW NC RIDGES. THUS LITTLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION THERE.
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO SLOWLY RECOVER NORTHWARD EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS LATE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS REMAIN OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION BUT
APPEARS A WINDOW POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO SEE A FEW BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THIS FAINT FEATURE. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF COVERAGE BASICALLY
REMOVED POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CUT BACK TO MOSTLY ISOLATED
TO CHANCE COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTRW EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ESPCLY EAST AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AGAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST/SW. SOME
PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE OUT EAST AND IN THE VALLEYS BUT QUITE
SPOTTY. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN SOME BLUE RIDGE EAST PER EASTERLY FLOW
AND BUMPED UP WEST GIVEN SLOW TO FALL READINGS AND MORE OF A LIGHT
WEST WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.
UPDATE AS OF 630 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EARLY UPDATE TO REMOVE GOING POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE PER OBS/MSAS AND LACK OF
MUCH CONVERGENCE OR SHRA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE TO
BREAK THE CAP ALOFT SEEN OFF EARLIER SOUNDINGS BUT CURRENT CLOUD
FIELDS AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MAY BE LATER WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE
ALOFT RIDES IN FROM THE NW. OTRW STILL SEEING QUITE A SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM THE WEDGING IN THE NE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE
SW WHERE THE AIR IS VERY DRY PER HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT CHANCE POPS AFTER SUNSET WHEN MAY SEE
MOISTURE POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OTRW RUNNING DRY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS PER THE LASTEST HRRR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
SOLAR HEATING...STRONG CAP THIS AFTERNOON HINDERING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE HEALTHY CAP. LIKE YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION
OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FOR VIRGINIA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND GOOD LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RNK
WRFARW DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA AND DROP SOUTHEAST. HRRR SHOWED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WAA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT CAP
MAY HOLD AND LIMITED CONVECTION. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE H8 WARN FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. GOOD LAPSE RATE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CAP IS EVEN STRONGER...ELECTED TO KEEP
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VARY FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUBJECT FORECAST AREA TO A
SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE 582 TO 588 DECAMETER
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
CANADA TO FLORIDA. THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
THEN BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY AS A MID CONUS TROF MOVES EAST.
850 MB TEMPS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED NEAR 18 DEG C. THIS ALONE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. AN ADDED BOOST WILL OCCUR
FROM ADIABATIC WARMING...WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AS THE AIR PASSES OVER AND DOWN THE MTNS. THE NET EFFECT
WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL TEST THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
FRIDAY AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID CONUS TROUGH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY WILL SQUELCH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CUMULUS...BUT THINK ANY THREAT OF
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE UNLESS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN MID CONUS FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE MODELS
REMOTELY LOOK SIMILAR...THEN THEY DIVERGE RESULTING IN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE AND
AND FAVORS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK VS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.
FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS BRING SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THIS RESULTS IN LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS THEN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS SATURDAYS FRONT WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
GETTING CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER
SOLUTION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL WE MIX OUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY MID
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM SURGE
PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW PORTION OF THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST/NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO SW TO
THE WEST. HOWEVER AS THE WEDGE ENHANCES AFTER DARK SHOULD SEE THE
FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN ATTM WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE STUCK
OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT BUT MAY INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE JETS IN FROM THE NW. OTRW LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THE MAIN ISSUES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE WEDGE FLOPS BACK TO
THE WEST BY MORNING. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR/LIFR CIGS
AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE...LEFT IN OVERALL MVFR CIGS OUT
EAST...WITH AN EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUP SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
IFR WITH MVFR/IFR FOG AS WELL EAST OF KBLF.
THE FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
AGAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT
NORTH BUT IFFY AT THIS POINT SO LEAVING OUT ANY SHRA/TSRA MENTION
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. BY LATE
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
657 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EARLY UPDATE TO REMOVE GOING POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE PER OBS/MSAS AND LACK OF
MUCH CONVERGENCE OR SHRA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE TO
BREAK THE CAP ALOFT SEEN OFF EARLIER SOUNDINGS BUT CURRENT CLOUD
FIELDS AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MAY BE LATER WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE
ALOFT RIDES IN FROM THE NW. OTRW STILL SEEING QUITE A SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM THE WEDGING IN THE NE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE
SW WHERE THE AIR IS VERY DRY PER HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT CHANCE POPS AFTER SUNSET WHEN MAY SEE
MOISTURE POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OTRW RUNNING DRY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS PER THE LASTEST HRRR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
SOLAR HEATING...STRONG CAP THIS AFTERNOON HINDERING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE HEALTHY CAP. LIKE YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION
OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FOR VIRGINIA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND GOOD LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RNK
WRFARW DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA AND DROP SOUTHEAST. HRRR SHOWED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WAA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT CAP
MAY HOLD AND LIMITED CONVECTION. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE H8 WARN FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. GOOD LAPSE RATE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CAP IS EVEN STRONGER...ELECTED TO KEEP
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VARY FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUBJECT FORECAST AREA TO A
SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE 582 TO 588 DECAMETER
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
CANADA TO FLORIDA. THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
THEN BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY AS A MID CONUS TROF MOVES EAST.
850 MB TEMPS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED NEAR 18 DEG C. THIS ALONE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. AN ADDED BOOST WILL OCCUR
FROM ADIABATIC WARMING...WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AS THE AIR PASSES OVER AND DOWN THE MTNS. THE NET EFFECT
WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL TEST THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
FRIDAY AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID CONUS TROUGH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY WILL SQUELCH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CUMULUS...BUT THINK ANY THREAT OF
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE UNLESS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN MID CONUS FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE MODELS
REMOTELY LOOK SIMILAR...THEN THEY DIVERGE RESULTING IN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE AND
AND FAVORS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK VS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.
FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS BRING SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THIS RESULTS IN LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS THEN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS SATURDAYS FRONT WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
GETTING CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER
SOLUTION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL WE MIX OUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY MID
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM SURGE
PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW PORTION OF THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST/NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO SW TO
THE WEST. HOWEVER AS THE WEDGE ENHANCES AFTER DARK SHOULD SEE THE
FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN ATTM WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE STUCK
OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT BUT MAY INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE JETS IN FROM THE NW. OTRW LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THE MAIN ISSUES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE WEDGE FLOPS BACK TO
THE WEST BY MORNING. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR/LIFR CIGS
AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE...LEFT IN OVERALL MVFR CIGS OUT
EAST...WITH AN EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUP SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
IFR WITH MVFR/IFR FOG AS WELL EAST OF KBLF.
THE FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
AGAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT
NORTH BUT IFFY AT THIS POINT SO LEAVING OUT ANY SHRA/TSRA MENTION
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. BY LATE
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
215 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
RAISED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. FOCUS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH SIMILAR TO RNK WRFARW. CAP TO SOUTH IS HOLDING
BACK DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 935 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH UP WSR-88D TRENDS. IN GENERAL
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SWODY1 HAS PLACED SEE TEXT FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. UPDATED HWO TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR TAKES FIRST AREA OF
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OUT OF CWA...THEN A SECOND ROUND MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 23Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOCAL RNKWRFARW KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE NAM AND GFS
PLACED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ELECTED TO PLACED HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GIVE FORECAST
HIGHS A CHANCE...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY COOL HIGHS.
MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE
SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY
AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND
IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID
LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON
TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE AND REINFORCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF
FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE
MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS
SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT
HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE
WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST
TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC-
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC
POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY
IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME.
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD
REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT MAY SHIFT DIRECTION
PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG
THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A BETTER CHANCE IN THE
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS LINING UP NICELY WITH LATEST RUN OF RNK WRFARW.
THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY...WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND
ECMWF HAD GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT IT NORTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONED SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH UP WSR-88D TRENDS. IN GENERAL
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SWODY1 HAS PLACED SEE TEXT FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. UPDATED HWO TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR TAKES FIRST AREA OF
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OUT OF CWA...THEN A SECOND ROUND MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 23Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOCAL RNKWRFARW KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE NAM AND GFS
PLACED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ELECTED TO PLACED HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GIVE FORECAST
HIGHS A CHANCE...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY COOL HIGHS.
MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE
SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY
AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND
IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID
LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON
TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE AND REINFORCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF
FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE
MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS
SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT
HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE
WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST
TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC-
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC
POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY
IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME.
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD
REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
06Z END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE
WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS
THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG
THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A BETTER CHANCE IN THE
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONED SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
732 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE
SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY
AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND
IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID
LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON
TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE AND REINFORCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF
FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE
MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS
SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT
HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE
WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST
TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC-
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC
POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY
IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME.
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD
REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
06Z END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE
WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS
THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG
THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A BETTER CHANCE IN THE
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONED SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
442 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE
SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY
AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND
IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID
LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONITNUE TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON
TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BRREZE AND REINFORCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF
FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE
MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS
SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT
HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE
WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST
TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC-
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC
POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY
IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME.
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD
REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
06Z END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE
WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 05Z/1AM
AND MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG
THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE IN THE
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVES THEM OFF TO THE EAST. THEN NOT MUCH UNTIL
3 AM CDT WHEN THERE IS A RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AT THIS
TIME ALONG WITH UPWARD MOTION. NAM HAS 500 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE LIFTED FROM 5 THSD FT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE BRIEF SMALL
HAIL PRODUCERS...EXPECT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE LATER DEVELOPING
STORMS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LATEST HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVES THEM OFF TO THE EAST. THEN NOT MUCH UNTIL
3 AM CDT WHEN THERE IS A RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AT THIS
TIME ALONG WITH UPWARD MOTION. NAM HAS 500 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE LIFTED FROM 5 THSD FT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE BRIEF SMALL
HAIL PRODUCERS...EXPECT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE LATER DEVELOPING
STORMS AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE PRECIPITATION
INCREASES.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOCUSED 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AIDED
BY AN INCREASING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SOME
700 MB TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE THE
INVERSION TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS MAY ALSO HELP AID PRECIPITATION.
BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO
800 J/KG WITH DECENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER...WITH MID
40S LAKESIDE TO AROUND 50 WELL INLAND.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG CAP THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPS BUILD THIS CAP...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STRONG...OVER 100 J/KG BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...IT WILL TAKE
VERY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO BREAK THIS CAP.
SO...GRADUALLY BROUGHT POPS DOWNWARD IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOW POPS
IN THE NORTH. THE AFTERNOON MAY BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LINGER...AND WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE 50S. 60S ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF MADISON...WITH 70S TO THE SOUTH OF THERE. MAY CRACK 80 IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE A MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL BLAST WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON. ACTUALLY...GIVEN THIS SCENARIO IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS WELL
NORTH IN THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING MOST
LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS PERIOD. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE H8 WARM
SECTOR PROVIDING A SERIOUS CAP TO CONVECTION WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKING VERY DRY ABOVE 4KFT AS WELL. MAIN MESSAGE...LOTS OF
NEGATIVES TO ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT CAN/T RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY. IT/S ALL ABOUT THE WARM FRONT...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE/LL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 60. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE EAST WILL
STAY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE
WE SHOULD SEE MANY AREAS HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE FOCUS WILL BE
ON A STRONG SURFACE THAT LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EARLY
THU EVENING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA. THE LOW LEVEL CAP DOES ERODE BY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE UPPER
TROF APPROACHING THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROLLING
NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE AGGREGATE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER FROM
THE NAM CLIMBS TO THE LOWER 80S WEST OF MADISON DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS JUST A BIT LOWER. THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOW AN
ACTIVE HISTORICAL COMPARISON TO THIS PATTERN. SO...THURSDAY IS
LOOKING VERY WARM WITH THE CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY WEST OF
MADISON THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND WE ARE OUTLOOKED BY SPC.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT SO POPS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IT/S TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG THESE
STORMS MAY BE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING UP
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TRENDS WILL CERTAINLY FADE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH THE
PRECIP COMING TO AN END AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. WE
SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 60S HOWEVER.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US A DRY PERIOD HERE. TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE EC IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CREEPS NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MOVES IT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING.
THE EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 07Z TO 09Z
WEDNESDAY...AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED IN ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING THE TAF SITES DRY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CEILINGS.
MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RESULTANT WAVES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND 3 TO 6 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 09Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WITH 290K ISENTROPIC
CONDENSATION DEFICITS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29 RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
200 MB...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN SOUTH OF THIS STATE HIGHWAY.
MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY...290K
ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE
TO THIS...KEPT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH 05.15Z.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/ WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AROUND 05.18Z. WHILE THE 290K ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE RUNNING 20 MB OR LESS...THE ONLY MESO MODEL
WHICH GENERATES ANY PRECIPITATION IS THE NMM. SINCE THIS MODEL
TENDS TO OVER DO ITS PRECIPITATION KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING TO MAKE
THAT THE DRY FORECAST TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
ON TUESDAY EVENING...THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA. CORFIDI
VECTORS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ELEVATED. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
BRINGING MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG INTO THE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...THE
1-6 KN SHEAR IS IN THE EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW VERY SKINNY CAPE...SO THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER YOU
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE LARGE HAIL OR NOT. HOWEVER WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13K FEET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THIS HAS A HUGE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS DAY. THE UKMET HAS THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ARE IN
THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE.
THE GEM HAS THE WARM FRONT MOVING UP INTO THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR. IT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94...AND IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 90.
IT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NEAR 70 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...AND IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM HAS THE WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
CONSENSUS.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
TRACK. THE U.S. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE NON U.S. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND THE AREA MAY
REMAIN DRY. SINCE THE NON U.S. MODELS SEEM TO MAKE A BIT MORE
SENSE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...OPTED TO
TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THEM.
ON THURSDAY...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS ARRIVES...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD
ENOUGH CAPES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP. ONCE THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA
MUCH OF THIS CAPES IS USED TO GENERATE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30
KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP...THE SURFACE BASED...ML CAPES...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
REMAIN LESS THAN 250 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH THE 05.00Z NAM AND HRRR KEEPING ANY OF THE LIGHT RAIN THAT
DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT THE HRRR KEEPS PUSHING THE AREA WHERE SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS WHERE
THE NAM ALSO NOW SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD JUST LEAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILINGS OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING THIS WEEK. CHECK OUT THE LATEST
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY COULD HELP
KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED...SLOWING THE RATE OF FALL AFTER
CREST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A WEAK PERTURBATION ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING. THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE...AND WITH
ENOUGH SATURATION PER RH FIELDS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM/GFS/EC AND THE MESO MODELS ALL FAVOR A SWATH RUNNING FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI...EXITING SOUTHEAST MON AFTERNOON. THE
AIR IS RATHER DRY IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...BUT WITH BASES 5-6
KFT...RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT ANOTHER AREA
OF PCPN COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT HANGING OUT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AND NORTH OF FRONT WOULD PUSH INTO
SLOPING/ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN IA/ILL. ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO ADD IN SMALL CHANCES
FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
ALL IN ALL...DON/T EXPECT MUCH QPF OUT OF WHATEVER RAIN FALLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATE TUE THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGS A PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION AS A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z
FRI.
TUE NIGHT...A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT WILL LAY UP ACROSS
CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN ILL...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE INTO AND
NORTH OF IT. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE PROGGED TO SPIN OUT OF
THE TROUGH STILL WELL WEST AT THIS TIME...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY POOLS AROUND THE SFC FRONT. EXPECT
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
FORCING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAVING A LARGE
ROLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON THU AS THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD BE A WARM
DAY...PERHAPS WARMEST DAY OF THE YOUNG SPRING SEASON...WITH EC 850
MB TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S. THAT
SAID...THE WARM TEMPS COULD BE TEMPERED BY PCPN.
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A STRONG CAP THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL
WARMING THU...INHIBITING ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO
PAINT QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY A LOFT FOR THE SHORTWAVES
TO TAP INTO...WHICH COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION ABOVE THE CAP. IF
STORMS GET GOING...AND COULD GET SFC BASED...0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE STAY
ABOVE THE CAP...1-6 KM SHEAR SITS AROUND 30 KTS. OKAY...BUT NOT
GREAT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO
WORK WITH. A LOT OF VARIABLES TO WATCH...BUT THU DOES POSE A SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
TO THE WEST...ALONG AND POST THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
WORK TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN ACROSS IA AND MN...JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH THE 05.00Z NAM AND HRRR KEEPING ANY OF THE LIGHT RAIN THAT
DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT THE HRRR KEEPS PUSHING THE AREA WHERE SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS WHERE
THE NAM ALSO NOW SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD JUST LEAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILINGS OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING THIS WEEK. CHECK OUT THE LATEST
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TUE NIGHT-FRI PERIOD COULD HELP KEEP THE
RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED...SLOWING THE RATE OF FALL AFTER CREST. MODELS
CURRENTLY FAVOR DROPPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI THU/THU NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
545 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITED SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER MUCH BETTER CLEARING IS NOW SEEN OVER THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE LARGELY IN THE 40S SO THERE IS
DECENT LLVL MOISTURE. WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CONVERSE COUNTY. THE RUC INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS. THE HRRR MODELS HAS ALSO BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A DISCRETE CELL JUST TO THE NORTH OF CONVERSE
COUNTY. NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE) IS FCSTED
OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT
STRONG STORMS OUT THERE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN
BY LATE EVENING. ONE MORE MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER UTAH. SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATE WED MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEATHER CONCERN FROM LATE MORNING WED THROUGH THE AFTN WILL BE ON
THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 0-3 KM HELICITY IS CLOSE TO 300 ALONG 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 KTS. THINKING THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO WITH THE GOOD LLVL
SHEAR. THE WINDOW FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD NOT EXTEND MUCH LATER THAN
THE EARLY AFTN HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTN AND
INSTABILITY IS ON THE DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IT PUSHES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON WED EVENING AND
THEN BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WED
NIGHT. A TROWAL IS SHOWN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION
IS DEPICTED LATE WED AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WY...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER
06Z. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS. HPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TO SNOW COULD OCCUR AFTER AROUND 09Z
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT OR SO. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
THE WARMEST IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AS IT KEEPS SFC WET BULB
TEMPS ABOVE 37F TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WED
NIGHT...WHEREAS THE NAM IS CLOSE TO FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD QG ASCENT WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO
EAST CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 12-18Z THU. WITH 700-850 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND
-5 C...WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. NOT THINKING RATES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE DEEPER COLD
AIR. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTN...WITH PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT WITH A FEW
NUISANCE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN. DESPITE SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. GFS CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C/KM...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.
BIG QUESTIONS COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW
AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO. LATEST GEM SHOWS A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE...
SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 12Z GFS TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE...WITH A
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN
THESE DIFFERENCES...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER MAJOR STORM
LATE IN THE PERIOD IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY. SNOW WOULD AGAIN BE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS H7 TEMPS PLUNGE AS LOW AS -10C. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE A
GOOD BET LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FCST HIGHS
ON SUN AFTN AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT DO NOT LEND
CREDENCE TO HIGHS NEAR 60F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY)
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...LOW CIGS AND NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND MAY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 10-15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH WITH THE GREENUP IN PROGRESS. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT. LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SURPASS
FLOOD STAGE ON THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY BY LATE TONIGHT AND
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SLOW SNOW MELT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
206 AM MST WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
BREEZES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED
TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL AT MANY DESERT
LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHARPLY DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CIRCULATE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES LEFT OVER THE WHOLE CWA IN THE WAKE OF
THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SOME EARLY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR THE COLD CORE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WITH MOST SITES ONLY REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEVADA STATIONS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY MODEL OVERLAY PLOT A POCKET
OF ENHANCED VORTICITY/SPIN COMING AROUND THE TROUGH BOTTOM AND ACROSS
THE CA/INTL BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS VORT LOBE IS PROGGED THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MIDDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIFFUSING AND CLEARING EAST
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST PWATS OF NEAR HALF AN
INCH OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY AND NOT EXTENDING MUCH
FURTHER EAST. EVENING RUNS OF THE HI-RES HRRR AND ARW SHOW ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY VERY SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MENTION DROPPING OFF
AFTER 08/03Z (8PM LOCAL) ONCE HEATING SUPPORT IS LOST WITH SUNSET.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 400MB VIA THE KVEF 00Z RAOB AND 6-8
DEGREES FROM KFGZ...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND WIDESPREAD 80S
AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BY FRIDAY...TROUGHING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE AREA WITH DRY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS EARLY MAY NORMALS WITH LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
READINGS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT
CURRENT THINKING FROM WPC AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN STATES AND ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED BREEZINESS AS SOME GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS
FORECAST...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 500MB
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SEE SOME DECREASE...WHICH WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM TAKING OFF TOO RAPIDLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND STAYING CLOSER TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CIRRUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT
WITH SCT CU AROUND 9000FT POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SETTLING IN AROUND 10KT...AND
MAINTAINING A WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SUSPENDED DUST MAY ALSO CREATE SOME AREAS OF HAZE AND SLANT-WISE
VISIBILITY ISSUES AT SOME AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH COMMON
AFTER 19Z.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. WINDS TAPER OFF AT KBLH
BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KIPL UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CU AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH COMMON
AFTER 19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE 80S ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS ON THURSDAY WILL
LOWER BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY...WITH JUST SOME TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
909 PM CDT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH METRO PROMPTED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
THE REST OF TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TO MAKE SOME HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THIS EVE WITH 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT PROFILER ANALYSIS INDICATING A
40-45 KT SRLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAVING DEVELOPED NORTH OF THIS INTO IA
AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIN ARCS OF TCU WERE NOTED ON LATE DAY
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASING
LAYER OF 8K-10K FT CIGS. THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND AREA AMDAR SOUNDINGS
WERE INDICATING A MOISTENING AROUND THAT 800-750MB LAYER...WHICH
WHEN LIFTED FROM THAT LAYER ON THE DVN SOUNDING WOULD PROVIDE OVER
1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...THOUGH WITH STILL A MINOR CAP. AS A SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE NEAR KANSAS CITY PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND OVERALL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THAT SLIGHT
CAPPING OVERCOME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
IL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT STORM WAS ALREADY ABLE TO DEVELOP.
IN ADDITION...THE TREND WITH THE HOURLY-RAN HRRR HAS BEEN TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS MAKES SENSE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SOME OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES BUT REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.
GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH THE MCHENRY/LAKE COUNTY
STORM...HAVING SPRUNG TO 40 DBZ OVER 35K FT WITHIN THREE SCANS OF
DEVELOPING...COULD STILL SEE AN ELEVATED HAILER OR TWO ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE REMAINS MORE
SUPPORTIVE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUED TO RE-INFORCE ITSELF EARLY THIS EVE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO...WITH
SOME MID 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND LOWER 50S STARTING TO REACH
SOME OUTLYING AREAS. DID ADJUST MINS DOWN BUT INDICATED SORT OF A
LEVELING OFF TREND TO THIS TEMPERATURE FALL...WITH EVEN POTENTIAL
RISING LATE GIVEN INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME POSSIBILITY TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES...AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SUBTLE FEATURE.
COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT AND HIGH DEW POINTS
BUTT UP AGAINST THE COOL LAKE. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY TO
PROGRESS SLOWER OVER THE MARINE LAYER...IT COULD INDUCE THE FOG.
HAVE NOT ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WE
WILL WATCH AS THAT WOULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO LAKE ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AND ON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS THE ONGOING AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE MIDWEST INDUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE VERY STRONG WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS STRETCHING ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL
AND IN. STRONG WAA ALOFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 70 SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LAKESHORE AREAS.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SFC WARM FRONT INCHES NORTH...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ INTO NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE ALSO
HINTS AT A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING CONTRARY...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTH...WHERE GENERALLY SLIGHT POPS WERE
MAINTAINED LATE EVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE
MUCAPE AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IF ANY STORMS DO
OCCUR OVER THE FAR NORTH...STRONGER STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S IN FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
THE LAKE TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH CWA...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING MAINLY NORTH
OF I-88. PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT DID
ADD A SLIGHT POP FOR AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. BIG STORY TOMORROW IS THE
RAPID FLIP TO SUMMER WARMTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS 850/925
MB TEMPS RISE TO LEVELS SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW-MID 80S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE REALLY SLOWS THE NWD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW...BUT THESE MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ARE LIKELY
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE IL NORTH SHORE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN THE WARM
AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RUSH IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WITH TEMPS JUMPING SEVERAL DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE TO CLOSE TO OR AROUND 60 AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...ADDING
A BIT OF A MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIRMASS. THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED TO
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO REAL FOCUS TO BREACH THE CAP
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NORMAL FOR
MID SUMMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM
STARTING POINT FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUE TO SUSPECT AFTER EXAMINING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAYTIME WITH THE WARM
SECTOR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND A STRONG CAP INDICATED. MOST OF THE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING DURING DAY SHOULD AT MOST SKIRTH THE FAR
NORTHWEST CWA AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL IDEA OF GRADUALLY SPREADING
IN CHANCE POPS BUT BASED ON TRENDS TODAY...COULD FORSEE NEEDING TO
LOWER THESE. THIS IS DESPITE HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 SUPPORTING MODERATE MLCAPE VALUES.
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT HIGHER SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ARGUING AGAINST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING...BUT
ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE
ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT.
WITH FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST
CWA DURING MORNING...BUT WITH COLD FRONT ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
AND AIR MASS STILL BEING WARM/MOST...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
REGENERATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 850/925 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
TEENS CELSIUS THROUGH AFTN SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER-MID 70S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UNLIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AFTER PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THIS SPRING...WE
DO NOT LOOK TO RETURN TO A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE JET STREAM PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN MORE ZONAL...WHICH WILL SUPPORT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND POSSIBLY MORESO AS PER 12Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
MODEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IT APPEARS AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY
SATURDAY...THE PATTERN COULD BE A BIT UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC TSRA
CHANCES. TIMING IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THIS WILL
ALSO IMPACT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER ON WHICH DAYS ARE MOST SYNOPTICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
LAKEFRONT MUCH COOLER THAN INLAND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* ISOLATED TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF ORD.
* WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA
AND FAR NORTHWEST IL THROUGH DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...REMAINING NORTH OF ORD/DPA. DURATION WILL
ALSO BE RATHER SHORT AT RFD...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING IS LOW SO
MAINTAINED CURRENT 08Z-11Z TIMING. DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REACH THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING. ITS PROGRESS NORTH
COULD BE SLOWED BY THE COLDER AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND HOW FAST
IT ADVANCES NORTH FIRST TO MDW AND THEN TO ORD/DPA IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAINTAINED CURRENT TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL IN AND AROUND
ORD/MDW WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING BACK
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES/CHANGES TO THIS WIND
FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING/SPEED BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM ANY TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ORD.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN LOW
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
302 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW...THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH ANY NORTHWARD
PROGRESS BLOCKED BY THE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP BRISK EASTERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH TO THE NORTH. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE PARENT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME ELONGATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT REACHING
THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD FINALLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FLOW
TO TURN OFFSHORE OF THE INDIANA COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...BUT VERY WARM
AIR OVERSPREADING THE COLD LAKE WATER SHOULD HELP LIMIT
MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
BEGINNING TO GET A BIT WARMER...SO THERE COULD BE BETTER MIXING
THERE AND WIND SPEEDS MAY FLIRT WITH GALE FORCE...BUT FOR
NOW...FEEL THAT 30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LAKE...WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTCENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TIMING AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS DEPENDING ON ALL OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VARIANCES ON BOTH OUR RFW...A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SO MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH ALL I WAS UNCOMFORTABLE DOING MORE THAN
NUDGING TOWARDS THE LATEST BLENDS/NAM TRENDS. THIS PUTS THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. REGARDING THE CURRENT RFW AND POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO MAKE HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH (I-70
CORRIDOR) BEFORE ANY PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TRANSITION NORTH
AND WEST. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED ON REAL TIME DATA AND NEW RUNS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BESIDES
COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW. I USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND LINGERED POPS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S...AND ACTUALLY WITHIN
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
ENSUING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THIS WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE GEM MODEL HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM BECOMING
CUT OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY IF
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CUT OFF...WHICH WILL AID IN MORE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS PLACE THE GREATEST
MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET SPEEDS AND HIGHEST AREAS OF INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD FOR GREATEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH PATTERN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN
DURING THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
19-21Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING NEAR MCK BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOWER
50S WHICH WILL BRING THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION. HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING CONDITION OF 6SM WITH A LOW CLOUD LAYER AT
MCK AS A RESULT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND INSTEAD
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE FRONT MAY SAG SOUTHWARD AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
YIELDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...1025MB SFC HIGH SOUTH OF JAMES BAY IN QUEBEC. A
STATIONARY SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA...THOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT FROM SFC OBS/RADAR/SATELLITE. LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SWRN ZONES HAVE DISSIPATED FOR NOW...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE...WARRANTING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER MI/NWRN OH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN
ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIR. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS 500 MUCAPE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE LWX CWA SO AS OF NOW THIS
WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. 06Z HRRR DEPICTS SOME REMNANTS
CROSSING NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF THE CWA FROM 10 AM TO 2PM. THIS WILL
ALL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH GRID UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
TODAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
SPREADING ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SSE ACROSS NJ THIS AFTERNOON...AN
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE WRN SHORE. A VORTMAX RIDES THE NWLY
FLOW AS WELL...ALLOWING CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN MD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAY BE EARLIER WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY ENTERING
OHIO). MAX TEMP UNCERTAINTY TODAY DUE TO TIMING QUESTION OF WARM
FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW. MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND GAVE GREATER BALTIMORE
AROUND 70F...SLOWLY INCREASING SW FROM THERE WITH MID 70S IN SHEN
VLY AND VLYS WEST OF THERE.
SFC HIGH SETS UP SSE OF DC WITH A SLY FLOW THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPS. QUESTION IS IF ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT CAN HANG ON. THEREFORE...LOW 70S IN FOR HARFORD
WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR 90F IN SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE REGION THU NGT AND FRI
MRNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIPRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
RIDGING SWWD INTO THE AREA THU NGT AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THRU NORTH-CENTRAL MD. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
COULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THU NGT.
SWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG HEATING...ALLOWING ANY STRATUS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. WARM AIRMASS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE CHARACTERIZED BY +2SD 925 MB TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
80S. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT ON FRI WITH SOME WARMER SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90F ASSUMING FULL HEATING.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP ERODE
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT FROM A LEADING MID-LVL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH. INTRODUCED ISO COVERAGE OF TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN AND EVE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHOWERS MAY SPREAD EWD
TOWARD I-95 DURING THE EVE BEFORE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WANES
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID- AND UPPER-LVL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT THIS WEEKEND AS THE MAIN
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO
QUEBEC. A SWLY LLVL JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON SAT AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
ULVL JET STREAK SPREADING INTO THE AREA. CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT AND SRN MD INCREASE TO LIKELY N/W OF DC TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. KEPT AFTN TSTM COVERAGE ISO DUE TO FCST
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
00Z GFS SHOW A RATHER CLOUDY AND STABLE AIRMASS ON SAT WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF DEPICTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND TSTMS.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CONUS SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F) WILL CONTINUE THRU ERY NEXT WEEK WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LLVLS. ATTEMPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOW DURING
THIS TIME WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC LIFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK. STILL PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TIMING OF FROPA. FCST FOLLOWS WPC GUIDANCE...
GIVING US INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CNTRL OH IN
ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIR THIS MORNING THAT WILL APPROACH SOME OF THE
TERMINALS (THOUGH THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED) EARLIER THAN
THE GUIDANCE WHICH PROGS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS...NEAR IFR THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLY FLOW SLOWLY CLEARS THE CONDS TO VFR FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU BWI-MTN THU NGT AND
POTENTIALLY REACH DCA-IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS POSSIBLE THU NGT
AND FRI MRNG ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SCT SHRA AND ISO TSTM
POSSIBLE IN THE MTS FRI AFTN/EVE. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA EXPECTED
SAT WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE TERMINALS. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. S-SW WINDS MAY GUST 15-25 KT SAT AFTN.
MAINLY VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME ELY THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TO NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER OHIO FOR MIDDAY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE BAY WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ELY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESELY FOR SRN MD WATERS WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND POSSIBLY THE TIDAL PATUXENT THIS EVENING. MARGINAL SCA
UP FOR LOWER AND MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC AS WELL AS LOWER SRN MD WATERS
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDING UP TO NORTH BEACH THIS EVENING.
GUST POTENTIAL IS AROUND 20 KT. FLOW BECOMES MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN OCCURS OVER THE MD PART OF THE BAY.
LGT SLY WINDS LATE THIS WEEK. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS ON
SAT AS S-SWLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOPRES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...BAJ/JRK
MARINE...BAJ/JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SLIGHT RISK TS POTENTIAL FROM SPC IS ALONG THE WI BORDER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE WARMER AIR
WILL BE FOG...WHICH IS STILL FCST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
AND TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NV AND S CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY PROGRESS E...STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /WITH THE APEX OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI/.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DESPITE THE SE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
INTO S WI AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NE INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE W HALF /PENDING RAIN SHOWER/
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO A CWA AVG OF 18C.
CURRENTLY FCSTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS S MN AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
CONCERN TS WISE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT MAY HOOK
UP THROUGH SW UPPER MI AND NEAR THE WI BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CATCH UP TO
IT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER E MN/NW WI AND THE W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS ONTARIO BY
MID DAY FRIDAY...DRAGGING THE INITIAL COLD FRONT E OF UPPER MI. THE
SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE W-NW.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2C BY SATURDAY MORNING AS PW
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.3IN...OR 45-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 30S FCST FOR THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP BEING A BIT LOWER.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
LOW /PICKED UP MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY WISE OFF THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF/ LOOKS TO BE OVER S CANADA AND MN AT 12Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE
RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS TO THE SW AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE LWR LAKES WILL
DRIFT E...DRIER E TO SE NEAR SFC FLOW EMANATING FROM THE RIDGE
SHOULD WORK TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
SHALLOW DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME SCT SHRA LIFTING INTO
UPPER MI AT TIMES DESPITE WARM FRONT WELL S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT... THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN BEST TIME
PERIODS FOR PCPN. BEST CHC MAY BE AT KIWD LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO VCSH WAS MENTIONED THERE. LLWS WAS
INCLUDED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW (LATEST KMQT RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS SE WIND AROUND 30KT AT 500FT AGL).
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. EXPECT GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A TREND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN HALF AND
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EAST HALF. THIS FLOW WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
WINDS UP TO 25KTS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS
FAVORABLE FUNNELLING. AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
2/3RD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND REMAIN UP TO 25KTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
KEEP THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE LOWER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TO JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
112 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SLIGHT RISK TS POTENTIAL FROM SPC IS ALONG THE WI BORDER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE WARMER AIR
WILL BE FOG...WHICH IS STILL FCST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
AND TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NV AND S CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY PROGRESS E...STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /WITH THE APEX OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI/.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DESPITE THE SE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
INTO S WI AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NE INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE W HALF /PENDING RAIN SHOWER/
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO A CWA AVG OF 18C.
CURRENTLY FCSTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS S MN AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
CONCERN TS WISE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT MAY HOOK
UP THROUGH SW UPPER MI AND NEAR THE WI BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CATCH UP TO
IT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER E MN/NW WI AND THE W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS ONTARIO BY
MID DAY FRIDAY...DRAGGING THE INITIAL COLD FRONT E OF UPPER MI. THE
SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE W-NW.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2C BY SATURDAY MORNING AS PW
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.3IN...OR 45-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 30S FCST FOR THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP BEING A BIT LOWER.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
LOW /PICKED UP MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY WISE OFF THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF/ LOOKS TO BE OVER S CANADA AND MN AT 12Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE
RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS TO THE SW AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE LWR LAKES WILL
DRIFT E...DRIER E TO SE NEAR SFC FLOW EMANATING FROM THE RIDGE
SHOULD WORK TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
SHALLOW DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME SCT SHRA LIFTING INTO
UPPER MI AT TIMES DESPITE WARM FRONT WELL S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT... THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN BEST TIME
PERIODS FOR PCPN. BEST CHC MAY BE AT KIWD LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO VCSH WAS MENTIONED THERE. LLWS WAS
INCLUDED OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW (LATEST KMQT RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS SE WIND AROUND 30KT AT 500FT AGL).
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SW FLANK OF
HI PRES RETREATING THRU ONTARIO AND IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS...EXPECT SLOWLY VEERING NE TO
SE WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TO DOMINATE INTO THU. AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WED NIGHT/THU...FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE
COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON
THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE E ON SUN AS THE HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING LO
MOVES TO THE E. NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WAS JUST CROSSING THE BORDER FROM MO
INTO IA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
CO/KS/NEB. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BANDS OF STORMS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING. ONE EXTENDS FROM CLEVELAND BACK TO GREEN BAY THAT YOU CAN
FOLLOW BACK TO SHOWERS IN THE DULUTH AREA AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED CAPE. AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION /WHERE H7 TEMPS EXCEED +9C/ YOU WILL FIND A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE MN/IA. MPXWRF AND SPCWRF PRETTY MUCH NAILED
THESE STORMS...SO FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THESE MODELS FOR WORKING
HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF A MANKATO/RED WING/CHIP FALLS LINE THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE RAPS DEPICTION OF THE LLJ VEERING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT NORTH...IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THESE STORMS WILL NOT BUILD MUCH FARTHER NORTH OF THEIR CURRENT
LATITUDE AND WILL INSTEAD HEAD MORE OR LESS DOWN I-90 INTO CENTRAL
WI WITH THE LLJ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THESE...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP NEAR 30 KTS AND CAPE BETWEEN
-10C AND -30C /HAIL CAPE/ UP AROUND 500 J/KG...WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE THE OCCASIONAL STORM PUT OUT HAIL THAT GETS UP IN
THE 1 INCH TERRITORY OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.
BEHIND THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H7 TEMPS WILL PUSH UP TO BETWEEN 8
AND 10C...WITH A VERY DRY PLUME OF AIR COMING IN IN THE H7-H5 LEVEL
AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MPX AREA CAPPED AND DRY MUCH OF
THE DAY AS WE WATCH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA. BY PEAK
HEATING...THIS WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE UP NEAR I-90. WARM SECTOR
COMING UP WITH THIS FRONT IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT HAS SPENT THE
LAST THREE DAYS BREAKING RECORD HIGHS ACROSS TX/OK/KS...SO IT WILL
BE WARM TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S LIKELY CLEAR UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT STILL MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST AS OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD
HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S/60S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE
FEELING LIKE SUMMER. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THIS FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS MID 80S ALONG I-90 THAT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TEMPS
THOUGH. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA RIGHT
NOW...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER US THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SOMETHING MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ALL MORNING
IS POSSIBLE...WHICH IS LOWER 90S COMING UP AS FAR NORTH AS
MANKATO/REDWOOD FALLS...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE CITIES...WITH
EVEN THE COLDER AREAS AROUND LADYSMITH PUSHING 70.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS WHEN DOES THE CAP BREAK.
ONCE IT DOES...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE MPX
CWA. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NW
OF THE CAP...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY OUT
FROM CENTRAL SODAK INTO NW MN. EVENTUALLY...A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO ERODE THE CAP.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE SPCWRF AND THE NMM/ARW WITH
ACTIVITY TAKING OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 4Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS UP AROUND 50 KTS...IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...SO THE DAY1 SLIGHT RISK IS MORE THAN WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH NO
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON...IF WE WERE TO
SEE SOMETHING GO IT WOULD HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING
SEVERE...WITH A TORNADO THREAT IF IT IS CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE WARM/DRY LAYER NOTED EARLIER AROUND H7 WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP ANYTHING FROM GOING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH ONLY ONE DRY PERIOD
FORECAST AND THAT IS FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY IS THE DAY OF
INTEREST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN WHILE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY ON ALLOWING FOR THE DESTABILIZATION
TO COMMENCE. PROJECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE
FOR 0-1KM SHEAR TO BE IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI ARE ALSO IN A FAVORABLE COUPLED JET ALOFT WITH 100
KNOT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHERN MN WHILE A 100+ KNOT JET
SURGES INTO EASTERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE IS QUITE STRONG BY EVENING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES.
ALSO...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO 0-3KM CAPE REACHING
100-150 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN CLOSE TO THE TWIN
CITIES. HENCE...A SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY WITH ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INCLUDING A
FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WI AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO RUN INTO THE 80S FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA
ON FRIDAY UNDER THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FRIDAY
NIGHT IS THE ONLY DRY PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS DEVELOPS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS WOULD BE FLATTER
AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC IS MORE ROBUST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
WE COULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AT ABOUT 530Z...TSRA STARTED BUBBLING UP TO THE SOUTH OF
FSD...RIGHT ABOUT WHEN/WHERE THE HRRR AND MPXWRF HAD THEM
FORMING. FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS FOR TIMING WHAT SHOULD BE A LINE OF
TSRA TO NEAR THE EAU AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF RWF/MSP...BUT LOOKS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION OF A VCSH. ALSO NEEDED TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF ANY SHRA AS WELL AND ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. FOLLOWED THE NAM/HRRR IDEA WITH
CIGS REMAINING MORE AROUND 4K FT MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE WARM
FRONT GETS CLOSER TO EACH TERMINAL...WHICH IS WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN CIGS IS ANTICIPATED. WITH CIGS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS IA STILL UP BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FT...FOUND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THE GFSLAMP FOR HOW AGGRESSIVE IT IS WITH BRINGING IN THE
LOWER CIGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP ON WED...BUT FAVORED THE
SPCWRF FOR HOW MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY GOES DOWN AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TSRA TONIGHT/WED MORNING WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FIELD...BUT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANY
DEPARTING/ARRIVING TRAFFIC. LESS CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST AS THE
APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING MAY MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EVEN AS EARLY AS 6Z TAF HAS IT.
CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER IN TSRA IMPACTING THE FIELD WED
NIGHT...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
SURGE NORTH AFTER 00Z...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE RAPID EXPANSION OF
TSRA ACROSS MN. ONCE STORMS START...COULD BE A VERY LONG NIGHT FOR
SEEING ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR EARLY WITH IFR/TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. WINDS SE BECOMING S AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
105 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
A DEFUSE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
KANSAS AT 3 PM WHICH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO
GENERATE STORMS. INSTEAD...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG WAA AT 850 MB...KICKED OFF BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ THIS EVENING. AS THE INVERSION AT 850 CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GROW ABOVE THIS LEVEL...BUT
CAPPING AT THIS LEVEL WILL ALSO MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE
STORMS AWAY FROM THE FORCING OF THE JET. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HUDSON TO
LADYSMITH. SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS IN
TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HOPWRF /15Z/
SHOWS STORMS INITIATING FURTHER NORTH INCLUDING THE REDWOOD
FALLS...TWIN CITIES...AND NEW RICHMOND AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THUS...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO PREVENT US FROM REDUCING
POPS TOO MUCH ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH. BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING THE REST OF THE
AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS...INCLUDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODEST AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. WITHOUT THE LLJ...NOT MUCH FORCING
WILL EXIST TO OVERCOME SIGNIFICANT CAPPING BETWEEN 700-800 MB. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE A SURFACE
LOW LIFTING NORTH MAY ERODE SOME OF THE STRONG CAPPING. THIS LOW
WILL ALSO DRAG THE WARM FRONT FROM IOWA NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
TERMS OF PLACEMENT...AND THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM
LOCATIONS GET. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE WITH EVEN 90S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...BUT
NORTH WILL BE SOCKED IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. GEM SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE FRONT REACHING CENTRAL MN...WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT
SEEM AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH KEEPING IT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR THE GRIDS...WHICH MATCHES BEST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
BRINGING 80S UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN TERMS OF OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SFC LOW...AND THE STRENGTH OF A DRY SLOT TO AFFECT THE AREA. THEN
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND POPS FROM AROUND 70% FOR CENTRAL MN TO JUST 30% DOWN TOWARD
I-90. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INTO TO NEAR 50 KTS/MUCAPE
OVER 2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9C/KM...THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE WAR FRONT.
FOR THURSDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE EVENT
WILL DEVELOP. PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD..AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM SECTOR WILL MOVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SOME
AGREEMENT ON SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THURSDAY. DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
INITIATE EARLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH LIKELY POPS AGAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 15Z. CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST PART OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE GFS IS
INDICATING SOME HIGH PROBABILITIES OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING/110KT 30H JET MAX NOSING INTO
EASTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IT DEVELOPS EVEN A LARGER AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THE MOMENT...THE SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IS
WARRANTED....WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS A GOOD BET. CANT RULE OUT
THE ISOLATED TORNADO HOWEVER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK WAVE LIFTING EAST OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THEN THEY DIVERGE HOWEVER
...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...AND
IT AFFECTS THIS REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO HOLD
ONTO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD BECAUSE OF MODEL
DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AT ABOUT 530Z...TSRA STARTED BUBBLING UP TO THE SOUTH OF
FSD...RIGHT ABOUT WHEN/WHERE THE HRRR AND MPXWRF HAD THEM
FORMING. FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS FOR TIMING WHAT SHOULD BE A LINE OF
TSRA TO NEAR THE EAU AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF RWF/MSP...BUT LOOKS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION OF A VCSH. ALSO NEEDED TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF ANY SHRA AS WELL AND ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. FOLLOWED THE NAM/HRRR IDEA WITH
CIGS REMAINING MORE AROUND 4K FT MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE WARM
FRONT GETS CLOSER TO EACH TERMINAL...WHICH IS WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN CIGS IS ANTICIPATED. WITH CIGS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS IA STILL UP BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FT...FOUND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THE GFSLAMP FOR HOW AGGRESSIVE IT IS WITH BRINGING IN THE
LOWER CIGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP ON WED...BUT FAVORED THE
SPCWRF FOR HOW MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY GOES DOWN AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TSRA TONIGHT/WED MORNING WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FIELD...BUT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANY
DEPARTING/ARRIVING TRAFFIC. LESS CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST AS THE
APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING MAY MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EVEN AS EARLY AS 6Z TAF HAS IT.
CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER IN TSRA IMPACTING THE FIELD WED
NIGHT...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
SURGE NORTH AFTER 00Z...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE RAPID EXPANSION OF
TSRA ACROSS MN. ONCE STORMS START...COULD BE A VERY LONG NIGHT FOR
SEEING ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR EARLY WITH IFR/TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. WINDS SE BECOMING S AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISOLATED ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR AND RAP REALLY ARE NOT HANDLING THE STORM TRACK AS
THESE METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGED MODELS PREFER TO TRACK THE
ACTIVITY MORE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST NEB VS THE WRN SANDHILLS.
THIS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE STORM(S) BECOMING ROOTED IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES. AT ANY RATE THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE STORMS
WILL EITHER WEAKEN BEFORE 12Z OR CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD SCNTL SD.
A BLEND OF THE NAM...RAP...ECM...SREF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SUGGESTED SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS ANALYZED A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLO AT 07Z WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NWRN NEB THIS MORNING TO
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND THIRD H7 WAVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR FROM KIML TO KONL AND SOUTH
DRY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OFF THE
FRONT RANGE THIS AFTN AND SWEEP NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN AND NERN
ZONES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBVIOUS WITH BULK SHEAR 50
KTS OR GREATER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACHING 4
CORNERS LOW. SPC HATCHED AN EGG OF VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE WRN
SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH SRN AND NERN NEB LATE THIS AFTN. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT. THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO AND 15 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES WOULD
APPEAR CONDITIONALLY TIED TO STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SFC FRONT
WHICH LIFTS NORTH OF I-80 AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN AND THEN DROPS BACK
SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING...PRESUMABLY ELEVATED...WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS
LIFT A DECENT SHOT OF PV15 THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR...CURRENTLY IN MONTANA DROPS THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR A ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANGING TO WET HEAVY SNOW. THE
NAM BACKS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY RIGHT UP AGAINST THE RAIN SNOW
LINE ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 09Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SLOW GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS MT AND THE RAIN SNOW LINE OVER
NERN WY. THE RAP CAN FIGURE THIS OUT LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW THE RAP HAS THE H700MB FREEZING LINE MOVING THROUGH SERN WY
AT 00Z THIS EVENING SO A QUICKER CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE
BEST GUESS ON SNOW AMOUNTS USES THE NAM...GEMREG...SREF AND ECM FOR
QPF WITH A 5 OT 1 RATIO FOR UP TO 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS AT 06Z VS THE NAM MODEL
SHOWING 09Z. THE RAP HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER THIS SPRING IN RAIN
SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED THE NAM.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY 09Z-15Z
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. THE SURFACE PATTERN FAVORS A
NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING LOW TOWARD MINNESOTA AND FINALLY INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA LEAVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER WAVE. THIS WAVE...AS IT/S
PREDECESSOR...WILL DRAG AN ADDITIONAL FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK...WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
FOR THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR WHICH THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A
DEEP SATURATION...AT TIMES EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ...BUT WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND SFC T/S NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C CREATE LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE IS SHOWN TO SET UP IN THIS AREA...CO-LOCATED IN THE
TROWAL REGION OF THE SYSTEM...SNOW RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY BEFORE 15Z.
CONSEQUENTLY...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEFORMATION...SNOW RATES
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SLUSH ACCUMULATION PAST 15Z THURSDAY.
FORECAST TIMING WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY CHANGE
WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
WITH LOW LEVEL CAA ONGOING...HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
CHILLY...40S FOR THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY SOME 60S SOUTHEAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS ANY
CLEARING WOULD LEAD TO SUB 0C LOWS...WITH THE THREAT OF A LIGHT
FREEZE. ATTM...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS ON SLOWER
SIDE...KEEPING SUFFICIENT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. ATTM...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING A DAMAGING FREEZE /TO YOUNG
PLANTS/...ESPECIALLY IF SNOW TOTALS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THE ENTIRE NORTH PLATTE CWA HAS NOT REACHED THE 50
PERCENTILE FOR LAST FREEZE DATE...WE DO NOT PLAN TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ATTM.
FRIDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW DIRECTING WAA BACK INTO THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. BUT A FAST MOVING WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW MAY SPARK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO
FOLLOW. AGAIN SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WON/T BE TOO FAR OFF FROM
CLIMO...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND DESPITE DIFFERENCES
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POPS LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS.
ATTM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 15000 TO 20000 FT AGL. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM THE EAST. CIGS MAY DROP TO
AROUND 1000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS
WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY 22Z WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB 30 GROUP. FOR
THE KVTN TERMINAL...BROKEN CIGS AROUND 15000 FT AGL WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED AND SOME DOUBT AS TO
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WILL HANDLE THE MENTION WITH A
PROB 30 GROUP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NEZ004.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GET WEDNESDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER
THE WEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WARM...+12C H7 TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED OVER KANSAS. AT H85...THERE
WAS SOME POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT OAX...HOWEVER IT WAS
FAIRLY DRY AT H85 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE MAP AT
20Z...CONTINUED TO SHOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S...HOWEVER...THE MID 80 HAD MADE IT INTO FALLS CITY.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THE WARM
FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD BE AROUND
LINCOLN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THERE IS SOME BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THE TRAJECTORY FOR THE BEST PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER
SOMETHING ISOLATED MAY TRY TO DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUT OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IF SOMETHING HIGH BASED DOES
DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA IS WHERE OUR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MENTIONED. THE
LATEST RAP IS HINTING AT SOMETHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VERY DRY AIR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RESULTING
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
RECORDS 95/96/99 OMAHA/LINCOLN/NORFOLK... BUT COULD GET CLOSE IF
FULL HEATING IS REALIZED. AS DISCUSSED BELOW...DUE TO THE
GREENESS...THE RFW WAS LIMITED TO THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN THE
DRIEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE RICH AIR RETURNING TO
EASTERN KANSAS AND A NARROW AREA MAKING IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA. DO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED. THERE IS A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGER
DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. ADVERTISED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS NOT PRODUCED AN MVFR CLOUD DECK SO HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION IN TAFS. SOME HAZY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY
LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. A WARM FRONT IN THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
AT KLNK AND KOMA WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER MAY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AT KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ051-065-
066-078-088-089.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW EVENING.
SOME SMOKE MAY BE VISIBLE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OR EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS WHERE PRESCRIBED BURNS HAVE BEEN ONGOING...BUT
NO PERCEIVABLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40 TO 45 KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...745 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO UPGRADED
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AROUND MAX HEATING HERE IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO SEEING AT LEAST A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS...WITH BLOWING DUST LOOKING MORE
LIKELY AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...
BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS NE ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST WILL
DELIVER ANOTHER PUNCH OF SPRING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND
AS CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE AREA. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED TO 994MB AT 19Z
OVER SE COLORADO AND THE 19Z RAP INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
989MB BY 00Z. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING H5 UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NV.
SURFACE OBS AT KLVS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WIND ADVISORY A
COUPLE TIMES BUT SINCE ISOLD IN NATURE WILL NOT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF A
40-50KT 700-500MB JET SLIDES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NM. WILL PASS
ALONG WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS TO OVERNIGHT CREW.
ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS THERE ISNT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT. WPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF VALUES FOR 0.10 OR MORE DO SHOW VALUES AROUND 30
PCT OVER SW FACING SLOPES OF THE NW MTS WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM LIFTED
INDICES ARE NEAR -2C FOR TMRW AFTERNOON SO THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 AND 50 PCT RANGE BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. ALSO TOSSED IN DUST FOR THE NW PLATEAU. MAX TEMPS
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE WEST THEN 5 TO 15F BLW NORMAL FOR ALL
AREAS THURSDAY. IT WILL FEEL QUITE COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. AGAIN QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARM ADVECTION
THRU THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. 700MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR +12C WHICH IS NEAR THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR MID MAY. THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABV NORMAL AGAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS ALMOST COMICAL SO WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
HAVE UPGRADED ZONES 103 AND 107 TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106 AS A WATCH AND
LET THE STELLAR NIGHT CREW TAKE ONE MORE LOOK.
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY LESS WIND...THANKS TO A POTENT COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONLY MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AND BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE EASILY REACHED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND ALL EASTERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE FAR EAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. HAINES VALUES TO BE HIGH
TO MODERATE. AREAS TO THE WEST ARE MORE IN THE GREY AREA AS TO HOW
TO TREAT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MANY HOURS...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN ZONES 103 AND 107.
WITH HAINES VALUES STILL PARTLY IN THE HIGH CATEGORY IN ZONES 103
AND 10 WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THESE ZONES TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS
A WATCH. CERTAINLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT LOW TO MODERATE HAINES VALUES AND HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BRING A MIXED SIGNAL AS TO JUST HOW CRITICAL THIS AREA
WILL BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LET NIGHT CREW MAKE THE CALL ON
ZONE 106. WILL NEED TO FACTOR IN HOW INCREDIBLY DRY IT HAS BEEN
LATELY AS WELL. AS FOR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO FINALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS. IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. A FEW RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
BUT NO WETTING PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NOT MUCH WIND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AND LEVELING OFF ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE DRY
ASIDE FROM A NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHOWER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE
BULLISH WITH A TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. JUST WISHFUL THINKING AT THIS POINT.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO HEAD SLOWLY EAST. NEAR SFC WINDS
STRONGER TODAY THAN MONDAY. SW WIND GUSTS OF 28-30 KTS AT
FMN...ABQ...AEG AND SAF. SW WIND GUSTS OF 35-37 KTS OTHER TAF
SITES. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO DUST IN ANY TAF FORECAST BUT
COULD BE SOME MODEST RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY FOR LVS...TCC AND ROW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. STRONG WINDS AGAIN WED OVER
THE E...LOWER SPEEDS IN THE WEST.
40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ515-519>540.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HEADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE HRRR MODEL CAPTURES
THIS AREA THE BEST AND SHIFTS IT INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THIS
FOR THE POPS/PRECIPITATION FORECAST. STILL APPEARS THAT THE WEST
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN SURGE OF SHOWERS
SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TANDEM WITH
APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE NEAR TERM HANDLED WELL AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT
POPS/WEATHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE
MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS...KEEPING MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BRINGING HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS ENDED IN THE NORTHWEST AND THINK
THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
UPDATE MAINLY TO BRING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAS
RESULTED IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ONE THUNDERSTORM CELL THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. ISSUED A NOWCAST WITH A
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL...AFFECTING SOUTHWEST DIVIDE AND NORTHWEST
WILLIAMS...INCLUDING GRENORA. BUMPED UP POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM BOWMAN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BISMARCK TO THE CARRINGTON AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THINNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
SUFFICIENT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPEST. AFTER SUNSET...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE 06-08 UTC TIME FRAME WHEN
PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST WHEN THE BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS OF
20 UTC PROPAGATES EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH A POTENTIAL DECREASE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY NORTHWEST
AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATES IN. FINALLY...DID ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
GENERATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
COMBINED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM SIOUX AND GRANT COUNTY TO BISMARCK/MANDAN TO CARRINGTON
RECEIVING ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 INCH TO NEARLY 1 INCH IN THIS 36-HOUR
PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BOWMAN TO DICKINSON...TO
GARRISON TO RUGBY MAY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 1/4 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION.
A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SNEAKS UNDER THE PERSISTENT SASKATCHEWAN LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 60S FRIDAY.
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO USHER IN SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
DUE TO TIMING/INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 12Z
IMPACTING KISN/KDIK. IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOWERING CIGS WEST WILL
BE AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO KDIK AND KBIS BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KISN AS MOISTURE IS REPLENISHED
IN EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KDIK FROM AROUND 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR KBIS. KJMS WILL REMAIN VFR
UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
418 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO...ALONG AN AXIS GENERALLY PARALLEL
TO (BUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES REMOVED FROM) THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THIS CONVECTION IS ON A
TRAJECTORY TO MISS THE ILN FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
ILN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS.
RIDGING IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE. THE ACTUAL SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AROUND 18Z...SHIFTING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE COLUMN...SETTING UP A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (MAY 7) APPEAR TO BE SAFE.
CMH: 87 / 1936
DAY: 87 / 1926 AND 1897
CVG: 89 / 1940
ONLY THE RAP (WITH ITS OVER-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TENDENCIES) HAD
VALUES ANYWHERE NEAR THOSE NUMBERS. THIS FORECAST WILL STAY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE RAP...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO MILD CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING VERY LITTLE...WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY (EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES). ANOTHER WELL-MIXED DAY WITH APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. RECORD HIGHS FOR
ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE 89 DEGREES FOR MAY 8...AND
AGAIN AS ON WEDNESDAY...THESE LOOK TO BE SAFE.
GOING INTO FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THIS LOW
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW SO FAR
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FAILING TO BECOME
PARTICULARLY SHARP...THERE IS LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT LUMBERS EASTWARD. THIS SETS UP
FORECAST WITH SPECIFICS THAT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH
CONCERNS OF TIMING AND FORCING STRENGTH PRECLUDING ANY HIGHER THAN
70-PERCENT POPS DURING THE SPAN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (EVEN
THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL GET SOME RAIN
OUT OF THIS SYSTEM). THE FIRST WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (MOVING
INTO THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING) APPEARS TO FALL APART AS IT
GETS TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WITH THE SECOND WAVE IS THE TIMING (WITH A FEW MODELS NOW
SHOWING THIS MORE AS A FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUE THAN A SATURDAY ONE).
WITH QUESTIONABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY (LIMITING
INSTABILITY)...AND THE WEAK FORCING AND SLOW FRONTAL MOTION ALSO
FACTORED IN...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND WAVE WILL END UP DETERMINING IF ANY CHANCE
FOR HEAVY OR PROLONGED RAIN MIGHT LEAD TO A POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING...BUT THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HELD DOWN BY THE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH A GRADIENT FROM THE MID 70S (NW CWA)
TO NEAR 80 (SE CWA) ON FRIDAY...THEN NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER. ELECTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH...AFTER AN INTERLUDE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTAINING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 70S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ON MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY...THE TAFS WILL BE KEPT DRY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME BY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BOTH SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWA THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES. THE 06Z HRRR BRINGS CONVECTIVE REMNANTS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SIMILAR ATTEMPTS BY SHOWERS TO CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY
TO WASH OUT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM.
MODELS DO HAVE A BETTER DEFINED WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY. BEST ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF A KMBG
TO KPHP LINE. INSTABILITY PEAKS JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. LOOKING AT NAM/RAP
PROFILES...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE FRONT
IS SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN
THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THIS
FEATURE NORTHEAST BETWEEN KPIR AND KMBG...THOUGH SREF GUIDANCE IS
A TAD FARTHER WEST. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH QPF
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED WITHIN MOST
GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 30 MICROBARS OF LIFT BY 12Z
THURSDAY. TROWAL WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HELPING TO DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN SD SATURDAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SAT MORNING BEFORE A
MORE WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO ND. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE SFC SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AT JUST WHEN THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INFLUENCE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE PRECIP ONLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS
THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A DRIER
SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS OCCURRING WHEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY.
CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MIDDAY...THEN INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT Tue May 6 2014
.UPDATE...
Increased overnight lows and introduced a slight chance of
thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor and northeast into the
Mason...Brady and San Saba.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Extensive mid/upper clouds associated with the subtropical jet
and isolated thunderstorms in southwest Texas were moving
northeast across the region. Updated to increase lows into the
upper 60s to around 70. Also introduced a slight chance of
thunderstorms over areas south and east of the Concho Valley. The
main threat from storms will be strong gusty winds and deadly
lightning.
&&
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR stratus developing in the Hill Country was likely be delayed
by extensive mid/upper cloudiness over the region. However it
should eventually reach the I-10 corridor and areas around Brady around
9Z. Stratus deck may make it to San Angelo, though confidence is
not high, so kept it as a scattered layer. Isolated dry line
thunderstorm activity possible late Wednesday afternoon and
evening, but best chance of storms will be after 06Z/Thursday, so
left thunder out of this TAF issuance.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus with MVFR CIGS returns along the I-10 corridor around 9Z and
spreads northward. A few patches of stratus may affect KSJT, but
most should stay south. Winds will increase mid morning and further
increase late afternoon as lee trough strengthens. Isolated dry line
thunderstorm possible late Wednesday afternoon, but coverage too low
to put TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Expect hot and dry weather this afternoon and a chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A dryline was located along a
Fredrick, OK to Abilene to Sonora line at 20Z. Latest SPC
mesoanaylsis indicates weak instability(MLCAPES 500 to 1000 J/KG)
ahead of the dryline over the eastern part of our area. The
remaining convective inhibition or low level inversion may be
erased for isolated storms to develop mainly after 22Z across the
northern Heartland and eastern Big Country. the HRRR convective
allowing model has been showing isolated storms developing the
past several hourly runs. High LCLs and an inverted-v sounding
profiles favor strong gusty winds and hail with the stronger
storms. Also, storms will produce dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Any storms that do develop will exit the area or
quickly dissipate by 02Z. The rest of tonight will see low level
southerly flow and low level moisture returning. The dryline will
retreat to just west of our area by 12Z Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be in the 60s to around 70.
For Wednesday, the morning looks quiet with low clouds across
much of the area. Low clouds will break up across much of the area
by early afternoon. Aloft, a strong upper level trough will be
located over the southern Rockies. A dryline will move slowly east
to along a Haskell to San Angelo line by late in the afternoon.
Low level convergence along the dryline and increasing large scale
ascent from approaching trough will cause isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop across much of West Central Texas mainly
after 20Z. The combination of some instability(MLCAPES of 1500 to
2000 J/KG) and 0-6KM bulk shear of 45 to 50 knots, will result in
some storms being severe. The main threats will be large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Highs will
be 90 to 95.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
By Wednesday night, the large upper level trough currently near
Las Vegas will be moving east through the desert southwest toward
west Texas. This feature will bring synoptic scale upward motion
with it into west and west central Texas from Wednesday evening
into Thursday.
Have generally bumped PoPs up again with this forecast, as we get
closer to the event, and become more confident in thunderstorms
taking place. In addition, have added the mention of severe
thunderstorms to the forecast for Wednesday evening, carrying over
the mention from the afternoon. With 0-6km bulk shear values of
40-55 knots, and SFC and mixed layer CAPE values ranging from near
1000 J/kg to as high as 1500 J/kg, there will be enough
instability, and storm organization carried over into the evening
hours for the threat of severe weather to be possible. As with the
previous period, the main concerns will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the event evolves overnight, the instability will wane,
and thus have the mention of severe weather in the forecast only
through 06Z. In addition to the severe weather possibility, some
of the thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, and localized
flooding will be possible, mainly in urban areas.
On Thursday, we will likely continue to see a broken line of
showers with embedded thunderstorms for the eastern half of the
area, especially during the morning hours as steering flow remain
southwest, making the exit of precipitation a little slow.
Severe weather concern will be limited with this mainly morning
activity.
One more weak shortwave will move through the area Friday
afternoon and evening, possibly providing one more shot at
precipitation for southeastern areas Friday afternoon and night.
Expect temperatures to continue to be above normal through the
forecast period. Thursday and Friday will be the cooler days
averaging mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will
quickly warm back into the mid 90s for the weekend.
Have not made any significant changes beyond the end of this week
as there is still a lot of uncertainty associated with the
forecast for early next week. The GFS is much more progressive and
weaker with an upper level system, sending a cold front into the
area Sunday night whereas the ECMWF is slower and stronger, and
waits until Monday evening to send a cold front into the area.
FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening, generally west of a Haskell to Bronte line. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM across the western Big
Country and Northern Concho Valley due to RH values of 7 to 12
percent and southwest winds around 20 mph. Also, ERC values are at
record levels across this area. An increase in low level moisture
late tonight should result in RH values recovering to 60 to 80
percent across much of West Central Texas. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon west of a Haskell to
Ozona line due to RH values of 15 to 25 percent and wind speeds of
15 mph. Thunderstorms will bring potential wetting rains across
mainly northern and eastern areas Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 94 67 87 61 / 5 30 50 30 10
San Angelo 71 94 68 91 57 / 5 20 40 20 10
Junction 71 91 70 87 66 / 10 20 50 40 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
210 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EVENING RNK SOUNDING SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES NEAR 2K BEING CAPPED ALOFT VIA A DECENT INVERSION JUST
ABOVE 7H. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH BETTER SURFACE
COOLING ONGOING AS THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS NOW FLOPPED BACK TO AS
FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. IN ADDITION...SUPPORT ALOFT LACKING
ATTM TO ERODE THE CAP ...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE
SW WHERE THE AIR REMAINS ARID ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER
THE NW NC RIDGES. THUS LITTLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION THERE.
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO SLOWLY RECOVER NORTHWARD EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS LATE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS REMAIN OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION BUT
APPEARS A WINDOW POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO SEE A FEW BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA
WITH THIS FAINT FEATURE. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF COVERAGE BASICALLY
REMOVED POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CUT BACK TO MOSTLY ISOLATED
TO CHANCE COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTRW EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ESPCLY EAST AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AGAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST/SW. SOME
PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE OUT EAST AND IN THE VALLEYS BUT QUITE
SPOTTY. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN SOME BLUE RIDGE EAST PER EASTERLY FLOW
AND BUMPED UP WEST GIVEN SLOW TO FALL READINGS AND MORE OF A LIGHT
WEST WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.
UPDATE AS OF 630 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EARLY UPDATE TO REMOVE GOING POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE PER OBS/MSAS AND LACK OF
MUCH CONVERGENCE OR SHRA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE TO
BREAK THE CAP ALOFT SEEN OFF EARLIER SOUNDINGS BUT CURRENT CLOUD
FIELDS AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MAY BE LATER WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE
ALOFT RIDES IN FROM THE NW. OTRW STILL SEEING QUITE A SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM THE WEDGING IN THE NE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE
SW WHERE THE AIR IS VERY DRY PER HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT CHANCE POPS AFTER SUNSET WHEN MAY SEE
MOISTURE POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OTRW RUNNING DRY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS PER THE LATEST HRRR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
SOLAR HEATING...STRONG CAP THIS AFTERNOON HINDERING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE HEALTHY CAP. LIKE YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION
OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FOR VIRGINIA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND GOOD LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RNK
WRFARW DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA AND DROP SOUTHEAST. HRRR SHOWED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WAA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT CAP
MAY HOLD AND LIMITED CONVECTION. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE H8 WARN FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. GOOD LAPSE RATE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CAP IS EVEN STRONGER...ELECTED TO KEEP
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VARY FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUBJECT FORECAST AREA TO A
SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE 582 TO 588 DM RANGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
CANADA TO FLORIDA. THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
THEN BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY AS A MID CONUS TROF MOVES EAST.
850 MB TEMPS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED NEAR 18 DEG C. THIS ALONE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. AN ADDED BOOST WILL OCCUR
FROM ADIABATIC WARMING...WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AS THE AIR PASSES OVER AND DOWN THE MTNS. THE NET EFFECT
WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL TEST THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
FRIDAY AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID CONUS TROUGH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY WILL SQUELCH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CUMULUS...BUT THINK ANY THREAT OF
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE UNLESS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN MID CONUS FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE MODELS
REMOTELY LOOK SIMILAR...THEN THEY DIVERGE RESULTING IN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE AND
AND FAVORS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK VS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.
FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS BRING SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THIS RESULTS IN LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS THEN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS SATURDAYS FRONT WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
GETTING CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER
SOLUTION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL WE MIX OUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY MID
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM SURGE
PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING...AND DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. BACK DOOR FRONT SHIFTED BACK TO
THE WEST AFTER SUNSET...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE BACK INTO FAR SW VA
NEAR MKJ. E-ENE WINDS EVIDENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...OR CALM
BCB/LWB. ALL MODELS POINT TOWARD THE COOLER...EASTERLY MARITIME
FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME TODAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS FAIRLY TYPICAL WEDGE SUPPORTING PATTERN OF
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER SFC WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING. AS OF
NOW...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WATCHING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN 11-3.9UM SATELLITE...WITH
SCT036 JUST NOW APPEARING IN ROA MTR. OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO APPEAR NEAR LYH. AMENDMENTS/ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY AS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE APPARENT. MEANWHILE...EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUDS IN THE 080-090 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NW-SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THEN...THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD
MD/PA AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS...MANY QUESTIONS ALSO ARISE AS TO THE DURATION OF
SUCH...WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT LEAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT...AS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD SUPPORT
SUCH CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN BR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SUCH APPEARS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY WITH STRATUS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TODAY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL.
WINDS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESE-SE MOST SITES AT SPEEDS OF
5-8KTS...BECOMING CALM/VRB03KT AROUND 00Z THU.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 15Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. BY LATE
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AT 3 AM...WATCHING 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE OTHER ONE IS LOCATED
BETWEEN SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAIRMONT MINNESOTA. BOTH OF
THESE ARE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE STRONG 700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENT AREA. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE LOCATED ONE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF 1000 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE ARW...NMM...HOP WRF
AND SPC WRF SUGGEST THAT THE LATTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT THE HRRR SUGGESTED A SIMILAR SCENARIO...BUT WITH ITS LATEST
RUN IT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO
DOES NOT MAKE A LOT OF SENSE...SO BACKED AWAY FROM FOLLOWING IT.
TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
ARW...NMM...HOP WRF AND SPC WRF. HOWEVER I AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT AS IT MOVES EAST THAT THE NOCTURNAL JET WILL WEAKEN AND THAT
THE CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA.
IF THE CONVECTION DOES HAPPEN TO GET INTO OUR AREA...THE SPC RAP
SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGH
07.14Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMEMT OF SOME ELEVATED
SUPER CELLS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MANY OF THE MESO MODELS AND
AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THIS IS A RESULT OF
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BEING BROUGHT ISENTROPICALLY OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LAYER FORMS A STRONG 800 TO 600 MB CAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND
DEVELOP STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BELOW THE CAP. THIS LOOKS VERY
UNLIKELY BECAUSE ITS SATURATED THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB TOO MUCH.
DUE TO THIS...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME PERIOD.
TONIGHT...MANY OF DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHAT SHOWS UP IN THE ARW AND SPC
WRF. DUE TO THIS...WENT WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF THUNDERSTORMS DID
DEVELOP...IT LOOKS TO BE SO HIGH /BASES OF 2 TO 3 KM/ THAT YOUR
SHEAR IS GREATLY DECREASED TO LESS 25 KNOTS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER THE CAPE PROFILE IS MUCH FATTER THAN THIS
MORNING AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 07.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL USE UP MUCH OF THE
CAPE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.
DUE TO THIS...STILL THINKING THAT THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH THIS PLUME NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL MID MORNING...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
BETWEEN 08.12Z AND 08.15Z.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECTED OUT OF THE LONG WAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
SAW ONE BAND OF SHRA/TS DEVELOP EAST OF KLSE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...BUT THAT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL WI. FAIRLY
QUIET AT THE MOMENT UPSTREAM PER RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS PUSHING THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY...TO ALONG I-94 BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW OF
THE MODELS STILL DEVELOPING SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH SURGE
OF MOISTURE/LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS ON COVERAGE OF THIS
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY AND WHETHER KLSE/KRST WILL BE AFFECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS IN THE 06-13Z TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BACKED OFF ON MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE MORNING DUE TO LACK OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING FROM NORTH MCGREGOR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE
FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITED SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER MUCH BETTER CLEARING IS NOW SEEN OVER THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE LARGELY IN THE 40S SO THERE IS
DECENT LLVL MOISTURE. WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CONVERSE COUNTY. THE RUC INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS. THE HRRR MODELS HAS ALSO BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A DISCRETE CELL JUST TO THE NORTH OF CONVERSE
COUNTY. NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE) IS FCSTED
OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT
STRONG STORMS OUT THERE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN
BY LATE EVENING. ONE MORE MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER UTAH. SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATE WED MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEATHER CONCERN FROM LATE MORNING WED THROUGH THE AFTN WILL BE ON
THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 0-3 KM HELICITY IS CLOSE TO 300 ALONG 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 KTS. THINKING THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO WITH THE GOOD LLVL
SHEAR. THE WINDOW FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD NOT EXTEND MUCH LATER THAN
THE EARLY AFTN HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTN AND
INSTABILITY IS ON THE DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IT PUSHES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON WED EVENING AND
THEN BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WED
NIGHT. A TROWAL IS SHOWN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION
IS DEPICTED LATE WED AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WY...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER
06Z. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS. HPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TO SNOW COULD OCCUR AFTER AROUND 09Z
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT OR SO. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
THE WARMEST IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AS IT KEEPS SFC WET BULB
TEMPS ABOVE 37F TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WED
NIGHT...WHEREAS THE NAM IS CLOSE TO FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD QG ASCENT WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO
EAST CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 12-18Z THU. WITH 700-850 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND
-5 C...WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. NOT THINKING RATES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE DEEPER COLD
AIR. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTN...WITH PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT WITH A FEW
NUISANCE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN. DESPITE SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. GFS CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C/KM...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.
BIG QUESTIONS COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW
AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO. LATEST GEM SHOWS A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE...
SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 12Z GFS TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE...WITH A
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN
THESE DIFFERENCES...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER MAJOR STORM
LATE IN THE PERIOD IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY. SNOW WOULD AGAIN BE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS H7 TEMPS PLUNGE AS LOW AS -10C. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE A
GOOD BET LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FCST HIGHS
ON SUN AFTN AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT DO NOT LEND
CREDENCE TO HIGHS NEAR 60F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE UNTIL 3AM OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...LOW CIGS AND NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 08Z ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MAY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 10-15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH WITH THE GREENUP IN PROGRESS. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
BREEZES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED
TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL AT MANY DESERT
LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHARPLY DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CIRCULATE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES LEFT OVER THE WHOLE CWA IN THE WAKE OF
THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SOME EARLY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR THE COLD CORE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WITH MOST SITES ONLY REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEVADA STATIONS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY MODEL OVERLAY PLOT A POCKET
OF ENHANCED VORTICITY/SPIN COMING AROUND THE TROUGH BOTTOM AND ACROSS
THE CA/INTL BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS VORT LOBE IS PROGGED THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MIDDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIFFUSING AND CLEARING EAST
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST PWATS OF NEAR HALF AN
INCH OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY AND NOT EXTENDING MUCH
FURTHER EAST. EVENING RUNS OF THE HI-RES HRRR AND ARW SHOW ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY VERY SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MENTION DROPPING OFF
AFTER 08/03Z (8PM LOCAL) ONCE HEATING SUPPORT IS LOST WITH SUNSET.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 400MB VIA THE KVEF 00Z RAOB AND 6-8
DEGREES FROM KFGZ...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND WIDESPREAD 80S
AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BY FRIDAY...TROUGHING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE AREA WITH DRY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS EARLY MAY NORMALS WITH LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
READINGS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT
CURRENT THINKING FROM WPC AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN STATES AND ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED BREEZINESS AS SOME GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS
FORECAST...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 500MB
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SEE SOME DECREASE...WHICH WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM TAKING OFF TOO RAPIDLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND STAYING CLOSER TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC DECKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH BASES GENLY 8-10K FEET. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES...ONLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS
TO STAY MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING...INCREASING AND
BECOMING LOCALLY GUSTY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25KT OR SO BY AFTN. WINDS TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE TAF SITES ALONG
WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DECKS. THERE MAY BE SOME CIGS AROUND 8-10K THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THINNING BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT AT
TIMES AT KIPL THIS AFTERNOON...A BIT LESS WIND AT KBLH. WINDS TO
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET FOLLOWING LACK OF MIXING...AND SKIES TO
BECOME GENLY CLEAR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVEN HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIGHTER
WIND...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY
EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES...AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 3:37 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DISTRICT WITH SOME AREAS OF STRATO-CU OVER THE EAST BAY...THE SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA...AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE WITH 2.4 MB FROM SFO-SAC...AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WITH 5.1 MB FROM ACV TO SFO. GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO TIGHTEN
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY WITH
60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...80S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR SECTIONS.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH. IF RAIN DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OUR HILLS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 16Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SURROUND THE BAY...WITH SFO ON
THE EDGE OF CLOUDS. SCT CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
16Z HOUR...LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT PROBABLE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHES OF SCT LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE
APPROACH THROUGH THE 16Z HOUR PREVENTING VISUALS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST THE 18Z
HOUR...LOW CONFIDENCE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH CLEARING TIMES...FROM 15Z TO AN ALL DAY EVENT. THE MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT KSNS WILL SEE CLEARING BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z...WHEREAS KMRY IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. THE HRRR AND LAMP
INDICATE AN ALL DAY EVENT...SO WENT WITH A LATER CLEARING TIME OF
19Z. AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM CLIPS NORTHERN CA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1042 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL EASE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE COURSE AND START MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH/EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
AN AREA OF TSTMS ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS WRN MD/S
CENT PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AS PER THE RECENT HRRR WHICH HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA
AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ON THE MOST RECENT ESTF.
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH
THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST, THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY, BUT WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. ALSO, TOTAL TOTALS INCH UP TO THE MID-UPPER 40S AND
K-INDEX VALUES CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEITHER DOMESTIC MODEL`S INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST LOOKED THAT
GRAND AND THE GFS IS ALREADY WAY TOO HOT WITH ITS QPF FIELDS IN ITS
FIRST SIX HOURS. IF ANYTHING, THE GENERAL MODELING CONSENSUS HAS A
SOUTHWARD BIAS ON ONGOING MIDWEST CONVECTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
REDUCED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE FEEDBACK VORT MAXES, ESPECIALLY ON THE
GFS. WHETHER REALISTIC OR NOT, A DP/DT ON THEM THU AND FRI SHOW VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE A
BLEND OF NON-GFS MODELS WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GREATEST
EMPHASIS ON POPS REMAINS EARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE MORE NORTHERN MODELING SOLUTIONS TO START OUR HIGHEST
PCPN CHANCES ON THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS AS THE TRIGGERING
SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND FORECAST MOISTURE ABOVE 925MB
DECREASES. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW IS HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION. ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THE MAY SUN WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT. LEAST CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS
NORTHEAST WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE OVER DELMARVA. WIDE RANGE IN
MAX TEMPS ACROSS OUR CWA REFLECT THIS. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THEM MUCH
FROM CONTINUITY.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAA SURGE (SOME FGEN AND QVEC FORCING SHOWING UP
IN THE FIELDS ALSO) IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE HAS
MORE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT, BUT RIGHT NOW
IS NOT COUPLED WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE. OVERALL WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED LLJ. POPS THUS WERE KEPT BLO LIKELY LEVELS.
IN ADDITION, THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR
MARINE FOG ADVECTING INLAND. WHILE POSSIBLE, WE MIGHT ALSO HAVE
SOME DRIZZLE WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR AN OXYMORONIC METEOROLOGICAL
PAIRING, DRIZZLE CAUSED BY THE STABLE TRAPPING OF MOISTURE BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION, BUT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS.
ON FRIDAY, THE WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO MAKE MORE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS AS THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS EASES TO THE EAST. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ONCE AGAIN IS PREDICTED TO PASS OVER OUR CWA, SO THE PCPN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CHANCES NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE ON
THURSDAY WE MIGHT BE TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPS, FRIDAY WE MIGHT BE TOO
LOW, ESPECIALLY DELMARVA.
FRIDAY NIGHT WE INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SATURDAY POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES CLOSER. THE FORECAST WIND FIELD (LLJ AND
JET ALF COUPLET) SURE DO LOOK BETTER AND THE EFFECTIVE PREDICTED
BULK SHEAR IS MORE ROBUST. THE LACK OF A LEE SIDE TROF FORMING
BACKING THE WINDS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WOULD BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR TO COVERAGE. DONT BELIEVE CLOUDS OR TOO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
THE WET BLANKET. FOR NOW, WE MAINTAIN INCREASINGLY HIGHER POPS
WITH GREATEST CHANCES WEST. WE ARE DEEP IN THE SW FLOW BY
SATURDAY, SO WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WILL REACH OUR FORECAST
MAX TEMPS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COLD
FRONT CLEARING OUR CWA ON MOTHER`S DAY AND WE LOWERED POPS AND
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS NOT THAT MUCH COOLER, NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN TEMPS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WHETHER ITS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BACKING TO THE NORTH AGAIN, OR
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BOTH INCREASE OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THOUGH STILL LOOK PRETTY, PRETTY WARM FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR TODAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.
AS WE GO INTO LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY IFR AS AN
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THEM ACTUALLY OCCURRING.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST, WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT
NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR DURING THE DAY AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONALLY MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA RECEDES AND
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND
15-20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOG MAY BE THE GREATER CONCERN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SREF IS INDICATING A FOG BANK FORMING OVER OUR
ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH A VEERING OF WINDS TOWARD THE SOUTH, THE
CONCERN MAY MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE CONTINUE TO BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN WAVE WATCH SEAS
WITH THE SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON THE WEEKEND AND
THE POST FRONTAL SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GIGI
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...AMC/GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GIGI/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
900 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
RIGHT AROUND 5000 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN NO MORE
THAN A DUSTING BUT STILL EXPECTING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY TO AROUND 7000 FEET. NAM AND HRRR BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AND EAST HIGHLANDS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THOSE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS NEAR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR ARE STILL
NORTHEAST AND STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THAT
IS IN EFFECT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WIND SHIFT WILL HAPPEN EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA SO EXPIRING THE LAKE WIND AROUND 2 PM STILL
LOOKS GOOD. ALL GRIDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES. EP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO SW UTAH WHILE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS LIFTED NORTH INTO SE IDAHO. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NNE TODAY THROUGH UTAH LEAVING
SE IDAHO UNDER A MOIST-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AN INVERTED SURFACE LOW
EXTENDING FROM COLORADO NE INTO SE IDAHO WILL SUPPORT NORTH WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE UPPER VALLEY TODAY WHILE WEST WINDS SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE ERN MAGIC VALLEY. TOUGH CALL TODAY ON HOW LONG AND/OR
HOW STRONG THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR. NEARBY OBS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING NE WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...THUS WILL PUSH A LAKE WIND ADV OUT THE DOOR WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE. THE LOW PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEGATIVELY TILTED PAC
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NW STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS SRN IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR
SE IDAHO. HUSTON
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 7/00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS
INCREASED THE WAVE AMPLITUDE AND OVERALL MOVED CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
ECMWF WHICH TAKES A LOW NEAR THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND
MOVES IT OVER UTAH BY SUNDAY MORNING. KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MOVE AND
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME MORE. THAT LEAVES A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY AND DECREASING
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT
WITHOUT CHANGES. THERE ARE TWO MINOR DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN
IDAHO...ONE MONDAY AND ANOTHER TUESDAY THAT RESULT IN A FLATTER
RIDGE AND TAKING A LITTLE EDGE OFF THE WARM UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RS
AVIATION...FOR KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
IN ORDER BETWEEN 10Z AND 19Z TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION IN NORTHWEST
UTAH MOVES EAST TO NORTHEAST. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE
SHOWERS A GOOD BET. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER UNTIL A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
545 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTCENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TIMING AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS DEPENDING ON ALL OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VARIANCES ON BOTH OUR RFW...A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SO MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH ALL I WAS UNCOMFORTABLE DOING MORE THAN
NUDGING TOWARDS THE LATEST BLENDS/NAM TRENDS. THIS PUTS THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. REGARDING THE CURRENT RFW AND POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO MAKE HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH (I-70
CORRIDOR) BEFORE ANY PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TRANSITION NORTH
AND WEST. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED ON REAL TIME DATA AND NEW RUNS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BESIDES
COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW. I USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND LINGERED POPS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S...AND ACTUALLY WITHIN
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
ENSUING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THIS WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE GEM MODEL HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM BECOMING
CUT OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY IF
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CUT OFF...WHICH WILL AID IN MORE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS PLACE THE GREATEST
MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET SPEEDS AND HIGHEST AREAS OF INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD FOR GREATEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH PATTERN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN
DURING THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD TO VIS VARYING FROM 4-7SM OVER NW KS
AND SW NE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MVFR VIS
IN TAF...SO LIMITED VIS RESTRICTION TO 6SM AS THIS LIGHT FOG IS
FAIRLY PATCHY. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT KGLD AND
AROUND 20-25KT AT MCK. A LOT OF SPREAD ON GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF
THIS FRONT AND A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FOR NOW SHOWED
WIND SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
NAM/RAP. WITH SLOWER WARM FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE TO ADD MENTION TO
TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
943 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-MORNING WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1024MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
JAMES BAY NOSING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WELL SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALOFT, WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN RVR VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
AND A SECOND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.
CONTINUING TO SEE SOME CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE SHRAS/ISO T IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NW FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT FROM W PA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTN. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT (DIMINISHING EFFECTIVE SHEAR/PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL CAPPING/MODEST MLCAPE <500 J/KG), EXPECT SOME SCT SHRAS WL
MAKE IT ACROSS AS WEAKENING VORTMAX SWINGS ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON
LINE THROUGH THIS AFTN. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING WELL
ALONGSIDE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS, AND HV THEREFORE INSTALLED
SOME CHC/"SCT" POPS FOR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES AND FAR NE VA
NORTHERN NECK COUNTIES, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-360.
OTEHRWISE, EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD
ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTN/TNGT AS A WARM FRONT, WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM SW-NE
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH 00Z/8P EDT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S FROM
INTERIOR NE NC TO CENTRAL VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NNE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...BEFORE STALLING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. A SECOND, MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE NW FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE OVER PA/NJ/NRN DE/FAR NE MD.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK)
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID-LEVEL FORCING TO INCLUDED A 20-30%
POP. THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED BASED ON UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY...MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THETA-E
RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW-NE THURSDAY...BUT THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR W OF
THE BAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 INLAND.
THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DROP BACK S INTO THE EASTERN SHORE AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING NNE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE/SKY COVER FORECAST. NAM/GFS BUFR AT SBY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME STRATUS COULD COME INLAND FROM THE OCEAN. THIS AND THE ULTIMATE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON HIGHS FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST...TO
MID/UPPER 70S FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S (LOCALLY LOW 80S COASTAL SE
VA/NE NC).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SERN COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL DATA SLOWS THE APPRCH OF NEXT FRNT ACROSS
THE MTS UNTIL SUNDAY. KEPT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING DRY. SCT CONVECTION
PSBL INVOF LEE TROF RESULTING IN DIURNAL POPS SAT AFTN/EVE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT L-M60S. HIGHS SAT 80-85...XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS.
FRONT APPRCHS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKENS/WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW WANT TO KEEP THIS WEAKEN
BNDRY/TROF HANGING ARND THE RGN THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
TRIGGER...KEPT CHC SHWRS/TSTMS (20-40%...HIGHEST W OF BAY) IN FCST
THROUGH THE PRD. HIGHS EACH DAY 80-85 EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE 70S
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS U50S-M60S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT IS PRODUCING BKN-OVC SKIES WITH DECKS GENERALLY 6-10K FT AGL
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY CALM- LESS THAN 5
KT.
FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND...WITH SOME SCT-BKN LOWER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (3-5K FT AGL)
OVER SE VA/NE NC. SE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 10 KT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE LIMITED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MD ERN SHORE...INCLUDING KSBY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PLACE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA RIDGES SWD OVER THE WATERS. THE RESULT IS
LIGHT SELY FLOW AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATERS WITH WAVES AND SEAS
GENERALLY 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NWD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...BUT COOL WATERS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN
INVERSION OVER THE WATERS...PREVENTING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
MIXING TO THE WATER. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE BAY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18-20
KT ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURS...WITH FLOW BECOMING S-SW
BEHIND THE FRONT. SW FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN ONGOING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WAS JUST CROSSING THE BORDER FROM MO
INTO IA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
CO/KS/NEB. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BANDS OF STORMS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING. ONE EXTENDS FROM CLEVELAND BACK TO GREEN BAY THAT YOU CAN
FOLLOW BACK TO SHOWERS IN THE DULUTH AREA AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED CAPE. AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION /WHERE H7 TEMPS EXCEED +9C/ YOU WILL FIND A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE MN/IA. MPXWRF AND SPCWRF PRETTY MUCH NAILED
THESE STORMS...SO FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THESE MODELS FOR WORKING
HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF A MANKATO/RED WING/CHIP FALLS LINE THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE RAPS DEPICTION OF THE LLJ VEERING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT NORTH...IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THESE STORMS WILL NOT BUILD MUCH FARTHER NORTH OF THEIR CURRENT
LATITUDE AND WILL INSTEAD HEAD MORE OR LESS DOWN I-90 INTO CENTRAL
WI WITH THE LLJ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THESE...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP NEAR 30 KTS AND CAPE BETWEEN
-10C AND -30C /HAIL CAPE/ UP AROUND 500 J/KG...WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE THE OCCASIONAL STORM PUT OUT HAIL THAT GETS UP IN
THE 1 INCH TERRITORY OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.
BEHIND THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H7 TEMPS WILL PUSH UP TO BETWEEN 8
AND 10C...WITH A VERY DRY PLUME OF AIR COMING IN IN THE H7-H5 LEVEL
AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MPX AREA CAPPED AND DRY MUCH OF
THE DAY AS WE WATCH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA. BY PEAK
HEATING...THIS WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE UP NEAR I-90. WARM SECTOR
COMING UP WITH THIS FRONT IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT HAS SPENT THE
LAST THREE DAYS BREAKING RECORD HIGHS ACROSS TX/OK/KS...SO IT WILL
BE WARM TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S LIKELY CLEAR UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT STILL MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST AS OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD
HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S/60S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE
FEELING LIKE SUMMER. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THIS FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS MID 80S ALONG I-90 THAT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TEMPS
THOUGH. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA RIGHT
NOW...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER US THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SOMETHING MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ALL MORNING
IS POSSIBLE...WHICH IS LOWER 90S COMING UP AS FAR NORTH AS
MANKATO/REDWOOD FALLS...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE CITIES...WITH
EVEN THE COLDER AREAS AROUND LADYSMITH PUSHING 70.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS WHEN DOES THE CAP BREAK.
ONCE IT DOES...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE MPX
CWA. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NW
OF THE CAP...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY OUT
FROM CENTRAL SODAK INTO NW MN. EVENTUALLY...A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO ERODE THE CAP.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE SPCWRF AND THE NMM/ARW WITH
ACTIVITY TAKING OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 4Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS UP AROUND 50 KTS...IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...SO THE DAY1 SLIGHT RISK IS MORE THAN WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH NO
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON...IF WE WERE TO
SEE SOMETHING GO IT WOULD HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING
SEVERE...WITH A TORNADO THREAT IF IT IS CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE WARM/DRY LAYER NOTED EARLIER AROUND H7 WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP ANYTHING FROM GOING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH ONLY ONE DRY PERIOD
FORECAST AND THAT IS FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY IS THE DAY OF
INTEREST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN WHILE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY ON ALLOWING FOR THE DESTABILIZATION
TO COMMENCE. PROJECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE
FOR 0-1KM SHEAR TO BE IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI ARE ALSO IN A FAVORABLE COUPLED JET ALOFT WITH 100
KNOT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHERN MN WHILE A 100+ KNOT JET
SURGES INTO EASTERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE IS QUITE STRONG BY EVENING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES.
ALSO...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO 0-3KM CAPE REACHING
100-150 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN CLOSE TO THE TWIN
CITIES. HENCE...A SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY WITH ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INCLUDING A
FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WI AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO RUN INTO THE 80S FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA
ON FRIDAY UNDER THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FRIDAY
NIGHT IS THE ONLY DRY PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS DEVELOPS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS WOULD BE FLATTER
AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC IS MORE ROBUST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
WE COULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
BIGGEST THING TO SAY FIRST IS THE GFSLAMP WAS IGNORED IN TERMS OF
ITS CIG FORECAST. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS
IOWA...HOWEVER THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET IN
IOWA...SO FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THE VERY PESSIMISTIC LAMP
FORECASTS. INSTEAD CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE NAM...WITH
CIGS NOT REALLY LOWERING MUCH UNTIL A LOCATION GETS CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT. AND EVEN THEN...THE HRRR/RAP SAY WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF STRATUS ANYWAYS...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING
OFF ON THE MVFR MENTION. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY OF RWF BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...THEN RAPIDLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 3Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FOR STC/AXN ONCE
THINGS GO. THIS IS ALSO THE PERIOD WHEN LOWER CIGS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY...BUT EVEN THEN WE MAY STAY PREDOMINATELY VFR.
KMSP...STORMS WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FIELD THIS MORNING...AND
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO KEEP THE FIELD DRY UNTIL LIKELY
BETWEEN 2Z AND 4Z. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN TSRA IMPACTING THE FIELD
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT LOWER ON EXACT TIMING. DO FEEL WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED FAR ENOUGH THOUGH BY 12Z THU THAT MSP SHOULD BE DONE
WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY BY THEN. AS FOR CIGS...BEGINNING TO
LOSE CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...SO CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD KEEPING CIGS
HIGHER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR EARLY WITH IFR/TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. WINDS SE BECOMING S AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISOLATED ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR AND RAP REALLY ARE NOT HANDLING THE STORM TRACK AS
THESE METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGED MODELS PREFER TO TRACK THE
ACTIVITY MORE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST NEB VS THE WRN SANDHILLS.
THIS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE STORM(S) BECOMING ROOTED IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES. AT ANY RATE THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE STORMS
WILL EITHER WEAKEN BEFORE 12Z OR CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD SCNTL SD.
A BLEND OF THE NAM...RAP...ECM...SREF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SUGGESTED SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS ANALYZED A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLO AT 07Z WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NWRN NEB THIS MORNING TO
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND THIRD H7 WAVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR FROM KIML TO KONL AND SOUTH
DRY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OFF THE
FRONT RANGE THIS AFTN AND SWEEP NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN AND NERN
ZONES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBVIOUS WITH BULK SHEAR 50
KTS OR GREATER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACHING 4
CORNERS LOW. SPC HATCHED AN EGG OF VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE WRN
SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH SRN AND NERN NEB LATE THIS AFTN. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT. THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO AND 15 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES WOULD
APPEAR CONDITIONALLY TIED TO STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SFC FRONT
WHICH LIFTS NORTH OF I-80 AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN AND THEN DROPS BACK
SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING...PRESUMABLY ELEVATED...WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS
LIFT A DECENT SHOT OF PV15 THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR...CURRENTLY IN MONTANA DROPS THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR A ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANGING TO WET HEAVY SNOW. THE
NAM BACKS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY RIGHT UP AGAINST THE RAIN SNOW
LINE ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 09Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SLOW GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS MT AND THE RAIN SNOW LINE OVER
NERN WY. THE RAP CAN FIGURE THIS OUT LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW THE RAP HAS THE H700MB FREEZING LINE MOVING THROUGH SERN WY
AT 00Z THIS EVENING SO A QUICKER CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE
BEST GUESS ON SNOW AMOUNTS USES THE NAM...GEMREG...SREF AND ECM FOR
QPF WITH A 5 OT 1 RATIO FOR UP TO 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS AT 06Z VS THE NAM MODEL
SHOWING 09Z. THE RAP HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER THIS SPRING IN RAIN
SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED THE NAM.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY 09Z-15Z
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. THE SURFACE PATTERN FAVORS A
NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING LOW TOWARD MINNESOTA AND FINALLY INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA LEAVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER WAVE. THIS WAVE...AS IT/S
PREDECESSOR...WILL DRAG AN ADDITIONAL FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK...WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
FOR THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR WHICH THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A
DEEP SATURATION...AT TIMES EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ...BUT WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND SFC T/S NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C CREATE LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE IS SHOWN TO SET UP IN THIS AREA...CO-LOCATED IN THE
TROWAL REGION OF THE SYSTEM...SNOW RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY BEFORE 15Z.
CONSEQUENTLY...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEFORMATION...SNOW RATES
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SLUSH ACCUMULATION PAST 15Z THURSDAY.
FORECAST TIMING WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY CHANGE
WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
WITH LOW LEVEL CAA ONGOING...HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
CHILLY...40S FOR THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY SOME 60S SOUTHEAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS ANY
CLEARING WOULD LEAD TO SUB 0C LOWS...WITH THE THREAT OF A LIGHT
FREEZE. ATTM...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS ON SLOWER
SIDE...KEEPING SUFFICIENT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. ATTM...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING A DAMAGING FREEZE /TO YOUNG
PLANTS/...ESPECIALLY IF SNOW TOTALS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THE ENTIRE NORTH PLATTE CWA HAS NOT REACHED THE 50
PERCENTILE FOR LAST FREEZE DATE...WE DO NOT PLAN TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ATTM.
FRIDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW DIRECTING WAA BACK INTO THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. BUT A FAST MOVING WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW MAY SPARK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO
FOLLOW. AGAIN SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WON/T BE TOO FAR OFF FROM
CLIMO...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND DESPITE DIFFERENCES
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POPS LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF KOGA-KVTN. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT THIS WEATHER SPREADS EAST TO KIML-KONL. AS THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WRN UT...LIFTS THROUGH WRN NEB LATE
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SHOULD FILL IN SOUTH OF KVTN-KOGA. NOTE NORTH
OF THAT LINE...MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NEZ004.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
UPDATE TO ADD SNOW AND SLEET TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AS OF 1530 UTC. THIS IS BASED UPON MULTIPLE REPORTS
BETWEEN WATFORD CITY AND WILLISTON AND THE KEENE AREAS AND DUAL POL
SIGNATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TO THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH
13 UTC...INCORPORATING THE 11 UTC RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL DECKS ARE THINNING
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS MATCH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR MATCHES THE LATEST RADAR OBS AND
FORECAST TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER
LOW NOW ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BECOME
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SEVERAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AND THUS FAR LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR CONFIRMS THIS.
OVERALL POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SEEING
HIGHEST POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN PAINTED ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE INVERTED
TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SHERWOOD
TO MINOT...SOUTH TO CENTER AND INTO MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY REACHING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ESSENTIALLY COVERING THE 00Z-06Z
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE BORDER AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS PER GFS
FOLLOW THIS TREND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HETTINGER TO BISMARCK TO HARVEY. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME OVER NORTH DAKOTA...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES/QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO DRY SLOTTING. AS
A RESULT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO VALUES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KMOT IN RAIN...STRATUS AND FOG
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL
BEGIN AT KBIS BY 16 UTC...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 19-20 UTC. RAIN
WILL APPROACH KJMS BY 18 UTC AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22-23 UTC. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KJMS THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
826 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TO THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH
13 UTC...INCORPORATING THE 11 UTC RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL DECKS ARE THINNING
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS MATCH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR MATCHES THE LATEST RADAR OBS AND
FORECAST TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER
LOW NOW ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BECOME
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SEVERAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AND THUS FAR LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR CONFIRMS THIS.
OVERALL POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SEEING
HIGHEST POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN PAINTED ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE INVERTED
TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SHERWOOD
TO MINOT...SOUTH TO CENTER AND INTO MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY REACHING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ESSENTIALLY COVERING THE 00Z-06Z
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE BORDER AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS PER GFS
FOLLOW THIS TREND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HETTINGER TO BISMARCK TO HARVEY. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME OVER NORTH DAKOTA...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES/QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO DRY SLOTTING. AS
A RESULT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO VALUES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KMOT IN RAIN...STRATUS AND FOG
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL
BEGIN AT KBIS BY 16 UTC...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 19-20 UTC. RAIN
WILL APPROACH KJMS BY 18 UTC AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22-23 UTC. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KJMS THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS MATCH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR MATCHES THE LATEST RADAR OBS AND
FORECAST TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER
LOW NOW ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BECOME
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SEVERAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AND THUS FAR LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR CONFIRMS THIS.
OVERALL POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SEEING
HIGHEST POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN PAINTED ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE INVERTED
TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SHERWOOD
TO MINOT...SOUTH TO CENTER AND INTO MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY REACHING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ESSENTIALLY COVERING THE 00Z-06Z
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE BORDER AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS PER GFS
FOLLOW THIS TREND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HETTINGER TO BISMARCK TO HARVEY. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME OVER NORTH DAKOTA...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES/QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO DRY SLOTTING. AS
A RESULT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO VALUES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE RESULTING IN IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBYS AT KDIK/KMOT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
KISN WILL BEGIN WITH BORDERLINE IFR CIGS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
END WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. AT KBIS...CIGS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 16Z WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. KJMS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TAKE CONTROL BY 09Z
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO...ALONG AN AXIS GENERALLY PARALLEL
TO (BUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES REMOVED FROM) THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THIS CONVECTION IS ON A
TRAJECTORY TO MISS THE ILN FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
ILN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS.
RIDGING IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE. THE ACTUAL SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AROUND 18Z...SHIFTING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE COLUMN...SETTING UP A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (MAY 7) APPEAR TO BE SAFE.
CMH: 87 / 1936
DAY: 87 / 1926 AND 1897
CVG: 89 / 1940
ONLY THE RAP (WITH ITS OVER-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TENDENCIES) HAD
VALUES ANYWHERE NEAR THOSE NUMBERS. THIS FORECAST WILL STAY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE RAP...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO MILD CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING VERY LITTLE...WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY (EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES). ANOTHER WELL-MIXED DAY WITH APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. RECORD HIGHS FOR
ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE 89 DEGREES FOR MAY 8...AND
AGAIN AS ON WEDNESDAY...THESE LOOK TO BE SAFE.
GOING INTO FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THIS LOW
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW SO FAR
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FAILING TO BECOME
PARTICULARLY SHARP...THERE IS LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT LUMBERS EASTWARD. THIS SETS UP
FORECAST WITH SPECIFICS THAT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH
CONCERNS OF TIMING AND FORCING STRENGTH PRECLUDING ANY HIGHER THAN
70-PERCENT POPS DURING THE SPAN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (EVEN
THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL GET SOME RAIN
OUT OF THIS SYSTEM). THE FIRST WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (MOVING
INTO THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING) APPEARS TO FALL APART AS IT
GETS TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WITH THE SECOND WAVE IS THE TIMING (WITH A FEW MODELS NOW
SHOWING THIS MORE AS A FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUE THAN A SATURDAY ONE).
WITH QUESTIONABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY (LIMITING
INSTABILITY)...AND THE WEAK FORCING AND SLOW FRONTAL MOTION ALSO
FACTORED IN...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND WAVE WILL END UP DETERMINING IF ANY CHANCE
FOR HEAVY OR PROLONGED RAIN MIGHT LEAD TO A POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING...BUT THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HELD DOWN BY THE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH A GRADIENT FROM THE MID 70S (NW CWA)
TO NEAR 80 (SE CWA) ON FRIDAY...THEN NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER. ELECTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH...AFTER AN INTERLUDE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTAINING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 70S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ON MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME BY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1058 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
DECREASE POP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF ABERDEEN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER LLM AND SHEAR
FURTHER EAST IS RESULTING IN MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS WITH RADAR
SHOWING SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING INTO SE NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BOTH SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWA THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES. THE 06Z HRRR BRINGS CONVECTIVE REMNANTS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SIMILAR ATTEMPTS BY SHOWERS TO CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY
TO WASH OUT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM.
MODELS DO HAVE A BETTER DEFINED WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY. BEST ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF A KMBG
TO KPHP LINE. INSTABILITY PEAKS JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. LOOKING AT NAM/RAP
PROFILES...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE FRONT
IS SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN
THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THIS
FEATURE NORTHEAST BETWEEN KPIR AND KMBG...THOUGH SREF GUIDANCE IS
A TAD FARTHER WEST. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH QPF
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED WITHIN MOST
GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 30 MICROBARS OF LIFT BY 12Z
THURSDAY. TROWAL WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HELPING TO DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN SD SATURDAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SAT MORNING BEFORE A
MORE WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO ND. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE SFC SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AT JUST WHEN THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INFLUENCE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE PRECIP ONLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS
THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A DRIER
SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS OCCURRING WHEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY FROM 21Z. CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BEHIND THE
LOW OVERNIGHT. LOWER VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
AS WELL.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
656 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
KNOCKED BACK EASTERN PROGRESSION OF POPS THIS MORNING AS
LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS MAKING IT EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
RADAR. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER THIS MORNING. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE 20Z INTO THIS EVENING.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BOTH SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWA THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES. THE 06Z HRRR BRINGS CONVECTIVE REMNANTS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SIMILAR ATTEMPTS BY SHOWERS TO CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY
TO WASH OUT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM.
MODELS DO HAVE A BETTER DEFINED WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY. BEST ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF A KMBG
TO KPHP LINE. INSTABILITY PEAKS JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. LOOKING AT NAM/RAP
PROFILES...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE FRONT
IS SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN
THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THIS
FEATURE NORTHEAST BETWEEN KPIR AND KMBG...THOUGH SREF GUIDANCE IS
A TAD FARTHER WEST. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH QPF
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED WITHIN MOST
GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 30 MICROBARS OF LIFT BY 12Z
THURSDAY. TROWAL WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HELPING TO DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN SD SATURDAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SAT MORNING BEFORE A
MORE WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO ND. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE SFC SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AT JUST WHEN THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INFLUENCE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE PRECIP ONLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS
THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A DRIER
SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS OCCURRING WHEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY FROM 21Z. CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BEHIND THE
LOW OVERNIGHT. LOWER VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
AS WELL.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1132 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
COOL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D LOOP SHOWED MAIN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF OUR REGION ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WESTERN MD. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED LOW CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS OUR CWA.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A GOOD
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 943 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RICHES CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVERDONE WITH
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR CWA. PREFER THE HRRR WITH STORMS
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. MATCHES UP NICELY WITH SWODY1
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. THIS SEEM REASONABLE WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TODAY. CAPPED ALOFT WAS QUITE HEALTHY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. WITH PATCHY
CLOUDINESS...AND COOL WEDGE WILL HOLD WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO RAISE HIGHS DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN ISC GRIDS. MORE
CHANGES LATER....
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVED BACK WEST
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING...AND EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED FROM
NEAR LWB-BLF-TNB. AS EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
SIF-ROA-LYH. FAIRLY FAVORABLE WEDGE PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THUS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL TODAY WITH EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...MID 70S ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...APPROACHING 80 IN FAR SW VA/SOUTHERN WV...WHICH WILL
EITHER REMAIN WEST OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY OR MOVE BACK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...THE CHANCE FOR SUCH IN OUR CWA IS
DECREASING. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD...AND TODAY SHOULD
RESIDE FROM NORTHERN WV INTO NORTHERN VA. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
AND A COOL STABLE LAYER AT THE SFC...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION. IN THE FAR SW WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE IT WILL BE CAPPED ALOFT...SO NOTHING EXPECTED THERE
EITHER. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-DAY...BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE
AND THE ALLEGHANY FRONT ALONG-NORTH OF I-64...SUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN
FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS IN
MIND...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEAR TERM. MODEL
INSTABILITY IS GROSSLY OVER ESTIMATED AND MY THINKING IS
CONSISTENT WITH SPCS LACK OF EVEN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR OUR
CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND VERY WARM AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
WARM AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GENERAL DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE 90 IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S TO UPPER
70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A STRONG LAYER
OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT...EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE ON THURSDAY. STILL...WILL BE LOOKING AT 80S FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST REGION. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...AND WITH ONLY VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY AND
DISORGANIZED.
LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CAUSE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LOSE ITS COLD AIR PUSH...FORCING IT TO
STALL WEST OF OUR AREA. MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MARGINAL...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMOTE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY RAINFALL WILL MAKE FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S
MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 AROUND DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK VS. A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING...CAUSING THE
SURFACE FRONT TO GET CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND HOLD WEST OF
OUR AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER SOLUTION OVERALL FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BY MID WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM
SURGE PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE TUESDAY...THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. BACK DOOR FRONT
SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY...AND NOW APPEARS
TO BE BACK INTO FAR SW VA NEAR MKJ. E-ENE WINDS EVIDENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS POINT TOWARD THE COOLER...EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME TODAY AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS FAIRLY TYPICAL WEDGE SUPPORTING
PATTERN OF UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER SFC WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING.
CIGS IN LOW CLOUD AREAS GENERALLY IN THE 015-040 RANGE...SO A
VARIETY OF MVFR TO VFR. SOME IFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NC. LOWEST CIGS RIGHT ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH
AREAS FURTHER EAST...E.G. LYH/DAN...SEEING MOSTLY VFR CIGS.
AMENDMENTS/ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MID-CLOUD DECK WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FROM THIS POINT THROUGH THE DAY. AS WEDGE
CONTINUES TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP LATE NIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING AT LWB/LYH/BCB.
WINDS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESE-SE MOST SITES AT SPEEDS OF
5-8KTS...BECOMING CALM/VRB03KT AROUND 00Z THU...THEN SW AFTER 12Z
THU.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 15Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. BY LATE
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PM
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
944 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
COOL...CLOUDY AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RICHES CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVERDONE WITH
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR CWA. PREFER THE HRRR WITH STORMS
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. MATCHES UP NICELY WITH SWODY1
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. THIS SEEM REASONABLE WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TODAY. CAPPED ALOFT WAS QUITE HEALTHY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. WITH PATCHY
CLOUDINESS...AND COOL WEDGE WILL HOLD WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO RAISE HIGHS DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN ISC GRIDS. MORE
CHANGES LATER....
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVED BACK WEST
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING...AND EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED FROM
NEAR LWB-BLF-TNB. AS EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
SIF-ROA-LYH. FAIRLY FAVORABLE WEDGE PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THUS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL TODAY WITH EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...MID 70S ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...APPROACHING 80 IN FAR SW VA/SOUTHERN WV...WHICH WILL
EITHER REMAIN WEST OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY OR MOVE BACK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...THE CHANCE FOR SUCH IN OUR CWA IS
DECREASING. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD...AND TODAY SHOULD
RESIDE FROM NORTHERN WV INTO NORTHERN VA. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
AND A COOL STABLE LAYER AT THE SFC...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION. IN THE FAR SW WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE IT WILL BE CAPPED ALOFT...SO NOTHING EXPECTED THERE
EITHER. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-DAY...BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE
AND THE ALLEGHANY FRONT ALONG-NORTH OF I-64...SUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN
FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS IN
MIND...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEAR TERM. MODEL
INSTABILITY IS GROSSLY OVER ESTIMATED AND MY THINKING IS
CONSISTENT WITH SPCS LACK OF EVEN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR OUR
CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND VERY WARM AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
WARM AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GENERAL DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE 90 IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S TO UPPER
70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A STRONG LAYER
OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT...EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE ON THURSDAY. STILL...WILL BE LOOKING AT 80S FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST REGION. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...AND WITH ONLY VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY AND
DISORGANIZED.
LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CAUSE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LOSE ITS COLD AIR PUSH...FORCING IT TO
STALL WEST OF OUR AREA. MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MARGINAL...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMOTE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY RAINFALL WILL MAKE FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S
MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 AROUND DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK VS. A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING...CAUSING THE
SURFACE FRONT TO GET CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND HOLD WEST OF
OUR AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER SOLUTION OVERALL FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BY MID WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM
SURGE PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE TUESDAY...THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. BACK DOOR FRONT
SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY...AND NOW APPEARS
TO BE BACK INTO FAR SW VA NEAR MKJ. E-ENE WINDS EVIDENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS POINT TOWARD THE COOLER...EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME TODAY AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS FAIRLY TYPICAL WEDGE SUPPORTING
PATTERN OF UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER SFC WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING.
CIGS IN LOW CLOUD AREAS GENERALLY IN THE 015-040 RANGE...SO A
VARIETY OF MVFR TO VFR. SOME IFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NC. LOWEST CIGS RIGHT ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH
AREAS FURTHER EAST...E.G. LYH/DAN...SEEING MOSTLY VFR CIGS.
AMENDMENTS/ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MID-CLOUD DECK WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FROM THIS POINT THROUGH THE DAY. AS WEDGE
CONTINUES TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP LATE NIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING AT LWB/LYH/BCB.
WINDS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESE-SE MOST SITES AT SPEEDS OF
5-8KTS...BECOMING CALM/VRB03KT AROUND 00Z THU...THEN SW AFTER 12Z
THU.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 15Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS. BY LATE
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PM
AVIATION...JH/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AT 3 AM...WATCHING 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE OTHER ONE IS LOCATED
BETWEEN SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAIRMONT MINNESOTA. BOTH OF
THESE ARE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE STRONG 700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENT AREA. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE LOCATED ONE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF 1000 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE ARW...NMM...HOP WRF
AND SPC WRF SUGGEST THAT THE LATTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT THE HRRR SUGGESTED A SIMILAR SCENARIO...BUT WITH ITS LATEST
RUN IT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO
DOES NOT MAKE A LOT OF SENSE...SO BACKED AWAY FROM FOLLOWING IT.
TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
ARW...NMM...HOP WRF AND SPC WRF. HOWEVER I AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT AS IT MOVES EAST THAT THE NOCTURNAL JET WILL WEAKEN AND THAT
THE CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA.
IF THE CONVECTION DOES HAPPEN TO GET INTO OUR AREA...THE SPC RAP
SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGH
07.14Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMEMT OF SOME ELEVATED
SUPER CELLS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MANY OF THE MESO MODELS AND
AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THIS IS A RESULT OF
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BEING BROUGHT ISENTROPICALLY OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LAYER FORMS A STRONG 800 TO 600 MB CAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND
DEVELOP STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BELOW THE CAP. THIS LOOKS VERY
UNLIKELY BECAUSE ITS SATURATED THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB TOO MUCH.
DUE TO THIS...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME PERIOD.
TONIGHT...MANY OF DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHAT SHOWS UP IN THE ARW AND SPC
WRF. DUE TO THIS...WENT WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF THUNDERSTORMS DID
DEVELOP...IT LOOKS TO BE SO HIGH /BASES OF 2 TO 3 KM/ THAT YOUR
SHEAR IS GREATLY DECREASED TO LESS 25 KNOTS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER THE CAPE PROFILE IS MUCH FATTER THAN THIS
MORNING AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 07.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL USE UP MUCH OF THE
CAPE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.
DUE TO THIS...STILL THINKING THAT THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH THIS PLUME NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL MID MORNING...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
BETWEEN 08.12Z AND 08.15Z.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECTED OUT OF THE LONG WAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THROUGH 07.1330Z STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KRST.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TO DISSIPATE
BY 07.15Z. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN VFR. LOOKING AT CEILINGS AROUND THE REGION...THE RAP
IS VERIFYING THE BEST...SO TRENDED THE TAFS THAT WAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THUS...
WENT DRY WITH VFR CEILINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING FROM NORTH MCGREGOR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE
FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
631 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING. FOG
HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL. SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOR IS POSSIBLE. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A STRATUS
DECK BY MID MORNING.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUSH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ABOUT 30 TO 40 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z
RUNS. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE MANY. FIRST...THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE
THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL STILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE ON SNOW
AMOUNTS. A DEEPER COLD BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT. IT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH
SNOW ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS A MUCH GREATER
LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH COULD ALSO INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...SO THE 06Z MODEL
RUNS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WOW...LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...FROM RIVER FLOODING TO
FLASH FLOODING...TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT. THIS MORNING WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...MODELS SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE VALUES 2000 J/KG ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO LOOKING AT 50 TO 60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WHICH
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ROTATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. ASSUMING
THE FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE
STORMS FIRE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD UNDER STRONG
SOUTHERN MIDLEVEL WINDS. NOT 100 PERCENT CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD BE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND
THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL...BUT THAT WILL NOT
NECESSARILY PRECLUDE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY BETWEEN
PINE BLUFF TO KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. THE STORM PREDICATION CENTER HAS
HATCHED HAIL FOR STONES UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THIS SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN MIDLEVEL CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR PARAMETERS. SHOULD
CAPE VALUES END UP BEING MUCH HIGHER...BASEBALL OR LARGER HAIL
WOULD COME INTO PLAY. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING LEVELS
ARE LOW...SO FALLING HAIL WILL NOT SEE MUCH MELTING. FOR FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...
SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
LATER TONIGHT THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...AND
POSSIBILITY HEAVY SNOW. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH THE CURRENT SNOW
FORECAST AS THERE AREA MORE VARIABLES AT PLAY WITH THIS SPRING
STORM SYSTEM. WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ONLY A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN ACTUALLY AIR
TEMPERATURES...AND DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION RATES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER...WHICH MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
A GREATER POSSIBILITY...EVEN INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOWING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD
EASILY WETBULB DOWN TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES AS RATES
OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. THE WARM GROUND WILL INITIALLY MELT
MUCH OF THE SNOW...BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HIGH SNOW
RATES...SOME PLACE CERTAINLY COULD PUSH SNOW ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
NOT DISCOUNTING WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACHED AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
GIVEN LARGE UNCERTAINTY AND WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT WHAT THE 12 MODEL RUNS SHOW...BUT VERY WELL MAY NEED
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT SOME POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH A PRETTY GOOD
WINTER SYSTEM POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
STARTING OFF ON FRIDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FRIDAY AS THE RAIN COULD
EXACERBATE SNOW MELT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A PRETTY STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ENDS UP DOWN NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRETTY COLD 700MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...GFS SHOWING -6
TO -8C 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY MORNING TRACKS INTO NORTHERN UTAH
AND ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. NEW ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GFS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...IT IS EVEN
COLDER THAN THE GFS THOUGH WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND BOOSTED POPS OVER GUIDANCE AS WELL.
PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH THOUGH AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
LOWER EVEN MORE.
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY COLD MORNING MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS. SHOULD START TO SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE
THOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO ABOVE
FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST 16-17Z
TIME FRAME BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP. LATEST HRRR FORECAST
DOING VERY WELL ON THIS STRATUS AND FOG AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS
GUIDANCE. CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE RAIN TURN OVER TO SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR
RETURNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY WET LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME PLACES. DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS HERE OR THERE...THEN ANOTHER LARGE
STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ119.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NEZ020-021-054-055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
BREEZES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED
TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL AT MANY DESERT
LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW IN NEW MEXICO BUT A FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS
SOME BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT MUCH LESS
WIND THAN YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST WITH 12Z PLOT DATA INDICATING THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS
OVER WESTERN UTAH AND WESTERN ARIZONA WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN UTAH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO NEW MEXICO BY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MEAGER CAPE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT BOTH 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAVE MORE CIN THAN CAPE. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL HAVE
EVEN LESS LIFT THAN THE ONE FOR TODAY. SO...SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOUT
THE MOST WE CAN MUSTER. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK FOR A NICE COOL DAY TODAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 206 AM...
SHARPLY DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CIRCULATE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES LEFT OVER THE WHOLE CWA IN THE WAKE OF
THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SOME EARLY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR THE COLD CORE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WITH MOST SITES ONLY REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEVADA STATIONS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY MODEL OVERLAY PLOT A POCKET
OF ENHANCED VORTICITY/SPIN COMING AROUND THE TROUGH BOTTOM AND ACROSS
THE CA/INTL BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS VORT LOBE IS PROGGED THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MIDDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIFFUSING AND CLEARING EAST
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST PWATS OF NEAR HALF AN
INCH OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY AND NOT EXTENDING MUCH
FURTHER EAST. EVENING RUNS OF THE HI-RES HRRR AND ARW SHOW ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY VERY SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MENTION DROPPING OFF
AFTER 08/03Z (8PM LOCAL) ONCE HEATING SUPPORT IS LOST WITH SUNSET.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 400MB VIA THE KVEF 00Z RAOB AND 6-8
DEGREES FROM KFGZ...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND WIDESPREAD 80S
AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BY FRIDAY...TROUGHING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE AREA WITH DRY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS EARLY MAY NORMALS WITH LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
READINGS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT
CURRENT THINKING FROM WPC AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN STATES AND ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED BREEZINESS AS SOME GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS
FORECAST...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 500MB
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SEE SOME DECREASE...WHICH WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM TAKING OFF TOO RAPIDLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND STAYING CLOSER TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO ARE POSSIBLE. PREDOMINANTLY
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND SHOULD SWING TO AN EASTERLY
HEADING BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECKS...8-10KT
FEET TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LINGERING DUST/HAZE SHOULD
IMPROVE AS MIXING CONTINUES...BUT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED BY HAZE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TAF SITES AS WEATHER
SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HOLDING
WESTERLY DIRECTION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS BELOW 25
KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME CU DECKS 8-10 KT FT POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVEN HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIGHTER
WIND...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY
EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES...AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
955 AM MST WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
BREEZES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED
TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL AT MANY DESERT
LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW IN NEW MEXICO BUT A FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS
SOME BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT MUCH LESS
WIND THAN YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST WITH 12Z PLOT DATA INDICATING THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS
OVER WESTERN UTAH AND WESTERN ARIZONA WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN UTAH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO NEW MEXICO BY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MEAGER CAPE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT BOTH 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAVE MORE CIN THAN CAPE. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL HAVE
EVEN LESS LIFT THAN THE ONE FOR TODAY. SO...SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOUT
THE MOST WE CAN MUSTER. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK FOR A NICE COOL DAY TODAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 206 AM...
SHARPLY DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CIRCULATE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES LEFT OVER THE WHOLE CWA IN THE WAKE OF
THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. SOME EARLY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR THE COLD CORE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WITH MOST SITES ONLY REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEVADA STATIONS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY MODEL OVERLAY PLOT A POCKET
OF ENHANCED VORTICITY/SPIN COMING AROUND THE TROUGH BOTTOM AND ACROSS
THE CA/INTL BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS VORT LOBE IS PROGGED THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MIDDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DIFFUSING AND CLEARING EAST
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST PWATS OF NEAR HALF AN
INCH OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY AND NOT EXTENDING MUCH
FURTHER EAST. EVENING RUNS OF THE HI-RES HRRR AND ARW SHOW ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY VERY SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MENTION DROPPING OFF
AFTER 08/03Z (8PM LOCAL) ONCE HEATING SUPPORT IS LOST WITH SUNSET.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 400MB VIA THE KVEF 00Z RAOB AND 6-8
DEGREES FROM KFGZ...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LOOK FOR MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND WIDESPREAD 80S
AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BY FRIDAY...TROUGHING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE AREA WITH DRY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS EARLY MAY NORMALS WITH LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
READINGS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT
CURRENT THINKING FROM WPC AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN STATES AND ONLY SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED BREEZINESS AS SOME GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS
FORECAST...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 500MB
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SEE SOME DECREASE...WHICH WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM TAKING OFF TOO RAPIDLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND STAYING CLOSER TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC DECKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH BASES GENLY 8-10K FEET. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES...ONLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS
TO STAY MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING...INCREASING AND
BECOMING LOCALLY GUSTY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25KT OR SO BY AFTN. WINDS TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE TAF SITES ALONG
WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DECKS. THERE MAY BE SOME CIGS AROUND 8-10K THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THINNING BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT AT
TIMES AT KIPL THIS AFTERNOON...A BIT LESS WIND AT KBLH. WINDS TO
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET FOLLOWING LACK OF MIXING...AND SKIES TO
BECOME GENLY CLEAR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DESERT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY. A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVEN HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIGHTER
WIND...ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT TUESDAY
EXPECT THE WARMER DESERTS TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES...AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE DRIER LOWER DESERT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATO-CU STILL
REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST FROM SAN MATEO TO PT SUR
AND INLAND THROUGH PACHECO PASS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT THE PESKY
STRATO-CU TO SLOWLY ERODE BACK TO THE COAST. LATEST HI-RES MODELS...
LIKE THE HRRR...KEEP CLOUDS AROUND MRY BAY AND THE SAN MATEO
COAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THE MORE
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY.
THE N-S GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY WINDS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST.
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...OR ABOUT NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. IF RAIN
DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND A ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO RESULT
IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN OUR HILLS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 16Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SURROUND THE BAY...WITH SFO ON
THE EDGE OF CLOUDS. SCT CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
16Z HOUR...LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT PROBABLE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHES OF SCT LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE
APPROACH THROUGH THE 16Z HOUR PREVENTING VISUALS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST THE 18Z
HOUR...LOW CONFIDENCE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH CLEARING TIMES...FROM 15Z TO AN ALL DAY EVENT. THE MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT KSNS WILL SEE CLEARING BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z...WHEREAS KMRY IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. THE HRRR AND LAMP
INDICATE AN ALL DAY EVENT...SO WENT WITH A LATER CLEARING TIME OF
19Z. AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ROUGH SEAS WITH MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISRUPT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS
AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RILEY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY
AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM ESTF UPDATED AT 630 PM: TEMPS TRIMMED SEVERAL DEGREES
FURTHER THIS EVENING. NO THUNDER THRU 06Z AND PLAYED DOWN THUNDER
IN THE WORDING TIL LATE.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT IS E CENTRAL AND SE PA AND S 1/2 NJ..ALONG AND S OF
KABE-KBLM. THAT IS ALSO THE 18Z GFS SOLN AND I AM THINKING THAT
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF VERIFICATION WITH PROXIMITY TO THE UNSTABLE
AIR. IN OTHER WORDS...REDEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE USUALLY
TOWARD THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
DIFFERENTIAL WAA IN A NW FLOW ALOFT SITUATION WITH SHORT WAVES
ASSISTING PERIODS OF LIFT. USING SPC WRF...HRRR AND RAP TO ADJUST
POPS AND A BEST MATCH TO THE GOING REALITY THIS EVENING.
BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS AT 830 PM WILL PROBABLY SHIFT HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME FURTHER SOUTH AND THE WORDING AS
POSSIBLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CLOUDY/SHOWERY MORNING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BIG
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN.
HAVE ALREADY CUT POPS TO 12 PCT MOST OF THE AREA 16Z-22Z TIME
FRAME...IN OTHER WORDS...I THINK ITS A RAINFREE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS OVER MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S
WHILE FURTHER N OVER NRN NJ AND THE SRN POCONOS...THE HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE MAYBE NEAR 60. SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...BUT
CAPES ARE RATHER LOW...SO WE WILL JUST KEEP WORDING SCT FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD SLOWLY THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR ALG THE FRONT AND END (OR
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY) BEHIND IT. THE GFS SEEMS ANOMALOUSLY WET
COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUID EARLY FRI AND WAS IGNORED. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHCS ON THRU FRI WILL BE OVER NRN AREAS WHERE THE FRONT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TIME TO CLEAR. FOR MANY AREAS, THE BULK OF
FRI CUD BE DRY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY WITH CHC POPS AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR, BUT A CDFNT IS APPROACHING FROM THE W. POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT GETS CLOSER AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATER SAT. PRECIP SHUD DECREASE DURG SAT EVE
AFTER FROPA.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEN THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH THE NEXT LOW/CDFNT AND ASSOCD PRECIP THAN
THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS SOME DIURNAL PRECIP ON MON BUT A BETTER
SHOT WITH THE CDFNT ON TUE. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY THRU THE
PD. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME DIURNAL SHWRS MON BUT THEN NOTHING
BEFORE THE CDFNT, WHICH IS AT LEAST A DAY BEHIND THE GFS. SO, IF
THE ECMWF IS CORRECT, EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE DRIER THAN THE GFS
IS INDICATING, BUT THERE IS STILL A WEEK TO SORT THINGS OUT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MDLS BUILD AN UPR RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL GENLY BE ABV NRML ON FRI BEHIND THE WMFNT AND NR OR
PSBLY BELOW NRML AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ALSO DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP). THEN MOST OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
FEATURE ABOVE NRML TEMPS WITH HIGHS NR 80 THU THE WKND INTO ERLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 5000 FT WITH A MVFR CIG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY KABE SOUTH. THUNDER POTENTIAL IN MORE
ORGANIZED HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WHERE IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
IN SHOWERS/STRATUS...PROBABLY FOR MANY TAF SITES. LIGHT WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 3000 FT THU
AFTN. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING MAYBE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHT
WIND TRENDING NE.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SHWRS AND TSTMS EARLY
(MAINLY N)...AS WELL AS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AS WARM FRONT MOVES
NWD THRU THE REGION. MDT CONFIDENCE.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR DURING THE DAY AND SOME MVFR
CONDS AT NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MDT CONFIDENCE
SUN-SUN NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS.
LOW-MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCT TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS LIGHT TRENDING EASTERLY WITH TIME THRU THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU FRI. FOG MAY BE THE
GREATER CONCERN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A VEERING OF
WINDS TOWARD THE SOUTH, THE CONCERN MAY MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEAS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WE ARE PLAYING IT A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO SWLY FLOW...BUT THERE IS SOME SCA POTENTIAL
THERE.
A GREATER SCA POTENTIAL OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYS, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WRT TO THIS SYS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 638
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 638
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 638
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 638
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WARM FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF SENT 445PM: TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THIS EVE. NO
THUNDER THRU 06Z AND PLAYED DOWN THUNDER IN THE WORDING LATE.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE
TONIGHT IS E CENTRAL AND SE PA AND S 1/2 NJ..ALONG AND S OF
KABE-KBLM.
DIFFERENTIAL WAA IN A NW FLOW ALOFT SITUATION WITH SHORT WAVES
ASSISTING PERIODS OF LIFT. USING SPC WRF...HRRR AND RAP TO ADJUST
POPS AND A BEST MATCH TO THE GOING REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A
CLOUDY/SHOWERY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BIG RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS OVER THE DELMARVA MAY REACH
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHILE FURTHER NE OVER NRN NJ AND THE SRN
POCONOS...THE HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S. SCT TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...BUT CAPES ARE RATHER LOW...SO WE WILL JUST
KEEP WORDING SCT FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD SLOWLY THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR ALG THE FRONT AND END (OR
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY) BEHIND IT. THE GFS SEEMS ANOMALOUSLY WET
COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUID EARLY FRI AND WAS IGNORED. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHCS ON THRU FRI WILL BE OVER NRN AREAS WHERE THE FRONT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TIME TO CLEAR. FOR MANY AREAS, THE BULK OF
FRI CUD BE DRY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY WITH CHC POPS AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR, BUT A CDFNT IS APPROACHING FROM THE W. POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT GETS CLOSER AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATER SAT. PRECIP SHUD DECREASE DURG SAT EVE
AFTER FROPA.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEN THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH THE NEXT LOW/CDFNT AND ASSOCD PRECIP THAN
THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS SOME DIURNAL PRECIP ON MON BUT A BETTER
SHOT WITH THE CDFNT ON TUE. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY THRU THE
PD. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME DIURNAL SHWRS MON BUT THEN NOTHING
BEFORE THE CDFNT, WHICH IS AT LEAST A DAY BEHIND THE GFS. SO, IF
THE ECMWF IS CORRECT, EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE DRIER THAN THE GFS
IS INDICATING, BUT THERE IS STILL A WEEK TO SORT THINGS OUT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MDLS BUILD AN UPR RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL GENLY BE ABV NRML ON FRI BEHIND THE WMFNT AND NR OR
PSBLY BELOW NRML AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ALSO DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP). THEN MOST OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
FEATURE ABOVE NRML TEMPS WITH HIGHS NR 80 THU THE WKND INTO ERLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 5000 FT WITH A MVFR CIG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY KABE SOUTH. THUNDER POTENTIAL IN MORE
ORGANIZED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WHERE IFR CONDS MAY
DEVELOP IN SHOWERS/STRATUS. LIGHT WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 3000 FT THU
AFTN. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING MAYBE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHT
WIND TRENDING NE.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SHWRS AND TSTMS EARLY
(MAINLY N)...AS WELL AS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AS WARM FRONT MOVES
NWD THRU THE REGION. MDT CONFIDENCE.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR DURING THE DAY AND SOME MVFR
CONDS AT NIGHT. MDT-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MDT CONFIDENCE
SUN-SUN NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON...MAINLY VFR. PSBL AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS.
LOW-MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCT TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS LIGHT TRENDING EASTERLY WITH TIME THRU THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU FRI. FOG MAY BE THE
GREATER CONCERN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A VEERING OF
WINDS TOWARD THE SOUTH, THE CONCERN MAY MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEAS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WE ARE PLAYING IT A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO SWLY FLOW...BUT THERE IS SOME SCA POTENTIAL
THERE.
A GREATER SCA POTENTIAL OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYS, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WRT TO THIS SYS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 502
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 502
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 502
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 502
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY
AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS. SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT...BUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AS
SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POPS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE CONTROL THE
WEATHER. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 18 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS.
THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATED INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT AGS AND OGB 08/09Z
THROUGH 08/12Z. THE SREF MODEL KEPT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TAF SITES. GIVEN A DRY AIR MASS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS WELL AS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG OVERNIGHT.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
548 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 60S OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
NEAR TERM FOCUS ON WIDELY SCT TSTMS ACROSS N ILLINOIS WITH WEAKER
SHOWERS COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK MI. ILLINOIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING
ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY NE MOVING SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WAS PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
THE LAKE WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
SURGING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SW HALF OF THE AREA NOW IN THE
UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. KIWX 88D APPEARS TO BE SHOWING THIS FEATURE
WHICH LOOKS TO BE QUASI STATIONARY ALONG ROUTE 30. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO GET MOVING AGAIN ONCE THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH EVE SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
ADDITION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL SUNSET.
LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
BALMY EARLY MAY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS COOLING TAKES PLACE. WHILE SETUP CAN`T BE FULLY
DISMISSED...THINK MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT CARRIED AWAY WITH IT AT
THIS POINT. IF ON THE OTHER HAND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED IN THE AREA...THEN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS WOULD
EXIST. STILL HOLDING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...BUT LACK OF TRIGGER AND
STRONG EML STILL IN PLACE TO PRECLUDE ALL BUT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
NORTHWARD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COMMENCE THURSDAY
NIGHT VIA A 50 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL WEAK MID/UPPER
PERTURBATIONS WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. CORFIDI
VECTORS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY FAVORING EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF IL CONVECTION INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED MUCAPE GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT PROPAGATION MODE THIS
CONVECTION WILL TAKE. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
POP FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...CONFINING OVERNIGHT LIKELY POPS TO THE
FAR WEST.
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY...AIDED BY BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY
INFLUENCES OF MORNING PRECIP. MODELS ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING NEXT PV ANOMALY TO LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
EXIT REGION OF 120 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POCKET OF STRONGER UPPER
FLOW...AND MORE LIKELY POSITION OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...MAY LEND TO A SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY TO BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION FLOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS...SO WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING
COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY DUE TO SLOWING NATURE OF
BOUNDARY...BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE IN NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
COMMENCES OVER THIS BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
DISTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING PHASING THIS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LOW. EC/GEM REMAIN MUCH SLOWER AND
BETTER PHASED...WHILE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
PHASED...TAKING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE WITH LARGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
SPREADS...HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CRALLBLEND
WHICH PROVIDES COMPROMISE IN TIMING OF THESE TWO CAMPS. OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY SUNDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SWRLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WARM FRONT WAS CLEARING KFWA AND WILL ARRIVE AT KSBN SHORTLY
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT ALL
THAT IS AROUND FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. SETUP NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE SO NO
MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...INCREASE IN LL MSTR WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT WITH MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS
DEVELOPING (SOME HINTS AT EVEN IFR CIGS). NOT READY TO BUY THIS
YET WITH RUC STILL SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SO WILL
MAINTAIN PREV FORECAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER/KG
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
A WARM FRONT SHIFT QUICKLY NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER... WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE
70S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO... AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AND NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 60S OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
NEAR TERM FOCUS ON WIDELY SCT TSTMS ACROSS N ILLINOIS WITH WEAKER
SHOWERS COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK MI. ILLINOIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING
ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY NE MOVING SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WAS PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
THE LAKE WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
SURGING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SW HALF OF THE AREA NOW IN THE
UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. KIWX 88D APPEARS TO BE SHOWING THIS FEATURE
WHICH LOOKS TO BE QUASI STATIONARY ALONG ROUTE 30. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO GET MOVING AGAIN ONCE THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH EVE SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
ADDITION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL SUNSET.
LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
BALMY EARLY MAY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS COOLING TAKES PLACE. WHILE SETUP CAN`T BE FULLY
DISMISSED...THINK MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT CARRIED AWAY WITH IT AT
THIS POINT. IF ON THE OTHER HAND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED IN THE AREA...THEN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS WOULD
EXIST. STILL HOLDING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...BUT LACK OF TRIGGER AND
STRONG EML STILL IN PLACE TO PRECLUDE ALL BUT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
NORTHWARD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COMMENCE THURSDAY
NIGHT VIA A 50 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL WEAK MID/UPPER
PERTURBATIONS WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. CORFIDI
VECTORS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY FAVORING EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF IL CONVECTION INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED MUCAPE GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT PROPAGATION MODE THIS
CONVECTION WILL TAKE. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
POP FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...CONFINING OVERNIGHT LIKELY POPS TO THE
FAR WEST.
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY...AIDED BY BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY
INFLUENCES OF MORNING PRECIP. MODELS ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING NEXT PV ANOMALY TO LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
EXIT REGION OF 120 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POCKET OF STRONGER UPPER
FLOW...AND MORE LIKELY POSITION OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...MAY LEND TO A SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY TO BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION FLOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS...SO WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING
COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY DUE TO SLOWING NATURE OF
BOUNDARY...BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE IN NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
COMMENCES OVER THIS BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
DISTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING PHASING THIS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LOW. EC/GEM REMAIN MUCH SLOWER AND
BETTER PHASED...WHILE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
PHASED...TAKING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE WITH LARGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
SPREADS...HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CRALLBLEND
WHICH PROVIDES COMPROMISE IN TIMING OF THESE TWO CAMPS. OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY SUNDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SWRLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WARM FRONT WAS CLEARING KFWA AND WILL ARRIVE AT KSBN SHORTLY
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT ALL
THAT IS AROUND FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. SETUP NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE SO NO
MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...INCREASE IN LL MSTR WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT WITH MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS
DEVELOPING (SOME HINTS AT EVEN IFR CIGS). NOT READY TO BUY THIS
YET WITH RUC STILL SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SO WILL
MAINTAIN PREV FORECAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
152 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
A WARM FRONT SHIFT QUICKLY NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER... WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE
70S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO... AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AND NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 60S OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING WITH WARM FRONT
MAKING PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH A RAPID
JUMP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH IT AND TEMPS WELL NE OF THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATE...EYES WOULD BE FOCUSED ON CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BASED ON SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION AS MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MOVES NE. RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR HAVE SHOWN NEW DEVELOPMENT FROM
OVER THE KILX SITE NW...WITH THIS MOVING NNE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
GIVEN EML IN PLACE. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL MONITORING WILL BE
NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE WIDELY SCT CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY ALLOWING WARM FRONT OVER KY AND SRN IN/IL TO LIFT NORTH TO
THE MI/IN-OH BORDER. BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN THE
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT FROM WI
SEWD INTO NW OH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS MOVG SLOWLY EAST WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING. THUS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTS ACROSS THE NE
PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT EXPECT IT WILL END BY
12Z SO HAVE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD IN THE ZFP TO HANDLE ONGOING
ACTIVITY. REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ACROSS OUR AREA AS
WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS EVIDENT ON ILX`S 00Z SOUNDING
OVERSPREADS OUR CWA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER OUR AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS IL/MO AND INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M80S OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
ONLY IN THE 70S OVER SRN MI AND NRN PORTIONS OF NW OH WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT.
WARM FRONT SHOULD CONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS LWR MI TONIGHT AS
A STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE AHEAD OF ROCKIES TROF CAUSING STNRY SFC LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LIFT NE TO ERN SD. CONVECTION
SHOULD AGAIN BE WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AS AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. THUS, CONTD DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT IN OUR AREA
WITH MILD LOWS RANGING FROM THE M50S NE TO THE M60S SW.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20C PER LATEST 12KM/NAM. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME
IN LINE WITH THE GFS/MAV WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORDS IN THE UPPER 80S AT FT WAYNE. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE
POOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO TRIED TO KEEP THE ONGOING
FORECAST WITHOUT MAKING MANY CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WARM FRONT WAS CLEARING KFWA AND WILL ARRIVE AT KSBN SHORTLY
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT ALL
THAT IS AROUND FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. SETUP NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE SO NO
MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...INCREASE IN LL MSTR WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT WITH MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS
DEVELOPING (SOME HINTS AT EVEN IFR CIGS). NOT READY TO BUY THIS
YET WITH RUC STILL SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SO WILL
MAINTAIN PREV FORECAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
515 PM CDT Wed May 7 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Tonight through Thursday ...
Water vapor imagery showed the deep mid-level trough stretched
across the western U.S. with southwesterly flow aloft over the
Central Plains. At the surface, low pressure stretched across
southwest to north central Kansas with the dryline nearly bisecting
the state from north to south at 20z. With a tight pressure gradient
in place across much of the region, south-southwesterly winds were
gusting upwards of 25-35mph this afternoon, which aided in decent
WAA as well as moisture advection across eastern Kansas with
dewpoints reaching into the lower to middle 60s. It was another mild
day across the region as high temperatures rose into the upper
80s/low 90s across eastern Kansas and into the mid/upper 90s over
north central Kansas. The warmest conditions across north central
Kansas were co-located with the drier conditions as dewpoints
plunged as low as into the middle 30s, resulting in RH values
dropping into the teens. These dry conditions combined with the
breezy winds will keep very high fire danger concerns in place
through early this evening, so a Red Flag Warning remains in effect
through 8pm across portions of north central Kansas.
Visible satellite this afternoon showed a few storms popping up
across northern Texas/southern Oklahoma along the dryline. The last
few runs of the HRRR/RAP have shown good run-to-run consistency as
well as good agreement with each other regarding the current
mid-afternoon development and additional northward development of
showers and thunderstorms along this dryline this evening. This
initial thunderstorm development looks to be supported by a
mid-level shortwave, and as this wave tracks northward into the area
this evening it will help to provide enhanced lift over the region.
Model soundings show the cap eroding away this afternoon across the
central portions of the forecast area (roughly from Council Grove
northward toward Manhattan), with short-range models showing this
region being well-primed for scattered thunderstorm development,
beginning between 22z-00z. MLCAPE values in this region could be
upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg with upwards of 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk
shear. As a result, the stronger storms may be capable of producing
large hail and possibly some stronger wind gusts later this evening
as the LLJ increases over the region. This activity should diminish
overnight with the loss of diurnal heating. Southerly winds will
remain breezy overnight due to the aforementioned increasing LLJ, so
this strong southerly flow combined with increasing mid-level cloud
cover will keep low temperatures tonight mild in the middle 60s west
to upper 60s/near 70 east.
There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms once again
on Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Central Plains,
finally pushing the cold front associated with this system eastward
across the area by Thursday night. 12z model runs have come into
better agreement with the timing of this frontal passage and the
eastward progression of the dryline through the day. Latest model
trends show any morning precipitation to be focused across far
eastern Kansas, but there are discrepancies with the coverage of
this activity. Feel that this activity should be fairly limited,
which would lead to more time for the environment to recover to
support redevelopment of thunderstorms along the dryline during the
afternoon hours. While there are still some minor discrepancies with
the exact placement of the dryline by the afternoon, thunderstorm
initiation looks to occur somewhere between Abilene and Manhattan
and between 18z-21z. The cap looks to quickly weaken during the
early/mid afternoon hours with upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
45-55kts of 0-6km bulk shear. While there certainly looks to be
decent shear in place, it looks to be fairly unidirectional. The
main threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and
damaging winds, but cannot rule out the potential for a few isolated
tornadoes. The increasing mid-level cloud cover will limit the
daytime heating with Thursday highs likely reaching into the middle
70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Extended focus will be on impacts of first system Thursday night
and second system over the weekend.
Thurs Night...ongoing convection should become focused across east
central Kansas as convergence is maximized along the north side of
a secondary surface low and boundary so will keep high precip chcs across
that area. Much cooler and drier air will arrive for Friday with
highs back toward average in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the 40s.
The next longwave trough will begin to take shape across the
Rockies by Saturday with sfc low pressure forecast to develop
across southeast Colorado. Moisture advection along and north of
the developing warm front could result in SCT convection so will
leave low pops on Sat. Better chances for showers and t-storms
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc low sags into
western OK and the associated sfc front also sags south. It would
appear that given moisture and shear that Sunday could bring a
risk for severe storms but that is dependent on details of front
position so confidence in severe risk Sunday is low at the moment.
Overall confidence in weather trends is higher by Monday so look for a
wet and colder start to the next work week with precip chcs decreasing
Monday night and ending by Tuesday. Temps next week should remain
near Average of 70 to 75.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Amended the TAFs to remove the TEMPO for TS at TOP and FOE. Latest
RAP and NAM show the axis of instability remaining fairly close to
the dryline with larger amounts of CIN to the east. Therefore
confidence in TS moving into the terminals is to low to keep a
tempo. MHK conversely is just east of the dryline with some
convection bubbling up to the southwest. Therefore will keep the
tempo, but have shortened the duration of the tempo based on the
latest HRRR prog of convection. Also backed off on the MVFR CIGS
for Thursday morning. Don`t see a huge increase in low level
moisture so am not sure why the NAM is saturating the boundary
layer. The RAP fails to saturate the boundary layer so am
skeptical of a CIG and will just mention a SCT deck possible at
TOP and FOE Thursday morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008-009-020-
021-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST SIX COUNTIES FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 45 MPH IN THIS AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
NORTH STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TIMING AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS DEPENDING ON ALL OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VARIANCES ON BOTH OUR RFW...A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SO MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH ALL I WAS UNCOMFORTABLE DOING MORE THAN
NUDGING TOWARDS THE LATEST BLENDS/NAM TRENDS. THIS PUTS THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. REGARDING THE CURRENT RFW AND POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO MAKE HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH (I-70
CORRIDOR) BEFORE ANY PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TRANSITION NORTH
AND WEST. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED ON REAL TIME DATA AND NEW RUNS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BESIDES
COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW. I USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND LINGERED POPS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S...AND ACTUALLY WITHIN
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...BUT
WITH MUCAPE FORECAST TO BE ZERO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WELL ABOVE FROST CRITERIA.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A BETTER
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW. THERE ARE SOME CONSIDERABLE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS SO DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCAPE IS NEAR ZERO OR VERY
LOW SO DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WIND FORECAST IS QUITE CHALLENGING AND MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY AT GLD AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT KMCK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
AT BOTH TERMINALS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE RESULTING IN
A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTHWEST OF BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST SIX COUNTIES FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 45 MPH IN THIS AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
NORTH STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTCENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TIMING AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS DEPENDING ON ALL OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VARIANCES ON BOTH OUR RFW...A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SO MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH ALL I WAS UNCOMFORTABLE DOING MORE THAN
NUDGING TOWARDS THE LATEST BLENDS/NAM TRENDS. THIS PUTS THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. REGARDING THE CURRENT RFW AND POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO MAKE HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH (I-70
CORRIDOR) BEFORE ANY PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TRANSITION NORTH
AND WEST. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED ON REAL TIME DATA AND NEW RUNS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BESIDES
COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW. I USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND LINGERED POPS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S...AND ACTUALLY WITHIN
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
ENSUING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THIS WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE GEM MODEL HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM BECOMING
CUT OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY IF
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CUT OFF...WHICH WILL AID IN MORE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS PLACE THE GREATEST
MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET SPEEDS AND HIGHEST AREAS OF INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD FOR GREATEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH PATTERN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN
DURING THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WIND FORECAST IS QUITE CHALLENGING AND MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY AT GLD AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT KMCK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
AT BOTH TERMINALS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE RESULTING IN
A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTHWEST OF BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST SIX COUNTIES FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 45 MPH IN THIS AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
NORTH STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP BUT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTCENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TIMING AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS DEPENDING ON ALL OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VARIANCES ON BOTH OUR RFW...A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SO MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH ALL I WAS UNCOMFORTABLE DOING MORE THAN
NUDGING TOWARDS THE LATEST BLENDS/NAM TRENDS. THIS PUTS THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. REGARDING THE CURRENT RFW AND POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO MAKE HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH (I-70
CORRIDOR) BEFORE ANY PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TRANSITION NORTH
AND WEST. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED ON REAL TIME DATA AND NEW RUNS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BESIDES
COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW. I USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND LINGERED POPS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S...AND ACTUALLY WITHIN
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
ENSUING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THIS WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE GEM MODEL HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM BECOMING
CUT OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY IF
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CUT OFF...WHICH WILL AID IN MORE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS PLACE THE GREATEST
MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET SPEEDS AND HIGHEST AREAS OF INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD FOR GREATEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH PATTERN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN
DURING THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD TO VIS VARYING FROM 4-7SM OVER NW KS
AND SW NE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MVFR VIS
IN TAF...SO LIMITED VIS RESTRICTION TO 6SM AS THIS LIGHT FOG IS
FAIRLY PATCHY. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT KGLD AND
AROUND 20-25KT AT MCK. A LOT OF SPREAD ON GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF
THIS FRONT AND A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FOR NOW SHOWED
WIND SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
NAM/RAP. WITH SLOWER WARM FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE TO ADD MENTION TO
TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1024MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ON/QC, RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION,
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE FROM SE NC
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALOFT, UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND A
SECOND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY, ORIENTED FROM
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PINWHEELED FROM WESTERN PA/MD ACROSS
TO THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE, BUT HAVE RETAINED SOME ISO TO SCT SHRA
WORDING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THIS AREA
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AS
UPPER RIDGE EDGES NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A DRY AFTN/EVENING. SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST WILL SHUNT THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK TO THE
NORTH TNGT AND OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. A SECOND, MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE NW FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT SLIP
NORTH, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SHIFT INTO
PA/NJ/NRN DE/FAR NE MD. DID RETAIN A LOW POP GIVEN THAT THE EASTERN
SHORE AND NRN NECK WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID-LEVEL
FORCING TO INCLUDED A 20-30% POP BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE NIGHT TO
BE DRY EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS HIGHER ENVELOPE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN PERSISTENT MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS WELL WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLIPS NORTH. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST...U50S TO NEAR 60 EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW-NE THURSDAY...BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE AS FRONT REMAINS SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN
GIVEN PERSISTENT LLVL EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE STILL QUITE CHILLY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR W OF THE
BAY. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 INLAND.
THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DROP BACK S INTO THE EASTERN SHORE AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING NNE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFR AT SBY SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME STRATUS COULD COME INLAND FROM THE OCEAN. THIS AND
THE ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON
HIGHS FRIDAY.
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WELL NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA, AND SURFACE HIGH ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE...EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY INLAND ON SW WINDS. ALSO LOOK FOR A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, AS HIGH RES MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO HOOK ON TO SOME SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
THAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY WELL MAKE IT TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD OR
EVEN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WILL CAP POP AT SILENT FOR
RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WARM RIGHT BACK INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WEST
OF THE BAY...WITH U70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS IN WASHING OUT NEXT COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST IN WARM/DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. WILL SEE A BIT MORE IN THE
WAY OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
ONCE AGAIN DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION APPEAR AS IF
THEY WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. HIGHS GENERALLY BACK INTO THE 80S
INLAND...70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER PATTERN SETTING UP AS BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ACROSS
THE AREA THRU MID WEEK. WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES SUN THRU TUES. UPSHOT WILL BE LOW
CHCS (20-30%) FOR AFTN/EVENING SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGHS SUN
U70S-L80S XCPT L-M70S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH MON/TUES 80-85...XCPT
75-80 CSTL AREAS. LOWS GNRLY 60-65.
MODELS DEPICT NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA WED. THIS PRBLY THE
BEST CHC FOR ANY WDSPRD PCPN AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME TROPICAL MSTR
GETS TRANSPORTED NORTH ALONG IT. KEPT POPS IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW
GIVEN 7 DAYS OUT. HIGHS WED 75-80.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH
STARTING TONIGHT. THE 85H FRONTAL IS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED INTO
THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 85H FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT SO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG IT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH HAS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS COULD BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS NORTH. LOOKING AT RUC AND NAM
ON BUFKIT CAN SEE CLOUDS LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE ALL THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN. SO WILL ONLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE. POTENTIAL FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BE LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND AT
SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE CLOUDS RISE QUICKLY AND DISSIPATE AT ALL
SITES AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME TO
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE S/W TO THE NORTH AND FRNTL BNDRY TO
THE SOUTH RESULTING IN WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OVER THE SRN MOST PART OF THE CHES BAY ATTM. THESE CNDTNS XPCTD TO
CONT THRU LATE AFTRN BEFORE DMNSHG TONIGHT. NO SCA ANTICIPATED ATTM.
WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THU.
FLOW BECOMES S-SW AND PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WINDS AOB 15 KTS...SEAS 2-4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
258 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-MORNING WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1024MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
JAMES BAY NOSING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WELL SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALOFT, WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN RVR VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
AND A SECOND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.
CONTINUING TO SEE SOME CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE SHRAS/ISO T IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE NW FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT FROM W PA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTN. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT (DIMINISHING EFFECTIVE SHEAR/PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL CAPPING/MODEST MLCAPE <500 J/KG), EXPECT SOME SCT SHRAS WL
MAKE IT ACROSS AS WEAKENING VORTMAX SWINGS ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON
LINE THROUGH THIS AFTN. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING WELL
ALONGSIDE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS, AND HV THEREFORE INSTALLED
SOME CHC/"SCT" POPS FOR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES AND FAR NE VA
NORTHERN NECK COUNTIES, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-360.
OTEHRWISE, EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD
ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTN/TNGT AS A WARM FRONT, WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM SW-NE
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH 00Z/8P EDT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S FROM
INTERIOR NE NC TO CENTRAL VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NNE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...BEFORE STALLING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. A SECOND, MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE NW FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE OVER PA/NJ/NRN DE/FAR NE MD.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK)
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID-LEVEL FORCING TO INCLUDED A 20-30%
POP. THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED BASED ON UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY...MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THETA-E
RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW-NE THURSDAY...BUT THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR W OF
THE BAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 INLAND.
THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DROP BACK S INTO THE EASTERN SHORE AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING NNE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE/SKY COVER FORECAST. NAM/GFS BUFR AT SBY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME STRATUS COULD COME INLAND FROM THE OCEAN. THIS AND THE ULTIMATE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON HIGHS FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST...TO
MID/UPPER 70S FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S (LOCALLY LOW 80S COASTAL SE
VA/NE NC).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SERN COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL DATA SLOWS THE APPRCH OF NEXT FRNT ACROSS
THE MTS UNTIL SUNDAY. KEPT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING DRY. SCT CONVECTION
PSBL INVOF LEE TROF RESULTING IN DIURNAL POPS SAT AFTN/EVE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT L-M60S. HIGHS SAT 80-85...XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS.
FRONT APPRCHS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKENS/WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW WANT TO KEEP THIS WEAKEN
BNDRY/TROF HANGING ARND THE RGN THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
TRIGGER...KEPT CHC SHWRS/TSTMS (20-40%...HIGHEST W OF BAY) IN FCST
THROUGH THE PRD. HIGHS EACH DAY 80-85 EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE 70S
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS U50S-M60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK NORTH
STARTING TONIGHT. THE 85H FRONTAL IS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED INTO
THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 85H FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT SO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG IT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH HAS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS COULD BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS NORTH. LOOKING AT RUC AND NAM
ON BUFKIT CAN SEE CLOUDS LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE ALL THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN. SO WILL ONLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE. POTENTIAL FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BE LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND AT
SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE CLOUDS RISE QUICKLY AND DISSIPATE AT ALL
SITES AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME TO
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA RIDGES SWD OVER THE WATERS. THE RESULT IS
LIGHT SELY FLOW AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATERS WITH WAVES AND SEAS
GENERALLY 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NWD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...BUT COOL WATERS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN
INVERSION OVER THE WATERS...PREVENTING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
MIXING TO THE WATER. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE BAY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18-20
KT ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURS...WITH FLOW BECOMING S-SW
BEHIND THE FRONT. SW FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN ONGOING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENT ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SW FLOW SHORTWAVES TO
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS TO THE FCST AREA.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...A SHORTWAVE NOW NEAR THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC 3H JET MAX
WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
WITH THE BEST MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
STAYING NW OF THE FCST AREA. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA...THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU AND THEN PUSH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI INCREASING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION ALONG INCOMING WARM FRONT...POOLING OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES TO NEAR 40 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE WI BDR COUNTIES THU EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW CAPPED LOW-
LEVELS ARE FROM FCST SNDGS WOULD THINK THREAT OF SVR WOULD BE PRETTY
MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN JUST A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS A MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOC SFC RDG BUILD IN FM WEST BEHIND THE
FRIDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY
BE COOL ON SATURDAY (GENERALLY IN THE 50S) IN A LIGHT NRLY FLOW BUT
FARTHER INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF LOWER TO MID 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED UNDER PREVALENT SUNSHINE.
SAT NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SW FLOW SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE UPPER LAKES. WAA ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT SHRA TO THE AREA.
MODELS MORE UNCERTAIN ON EVOLVING PATTERN DETAILS FOR SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WED AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGS SE...DEEPENING MID-UPR LVL TROF
OVER THE SW CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH
SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPR LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT MOVING IT
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO GO
ALONG MORE WITH NCEP PREFERRED SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/GEM IDEA
WHICH SHOULD YIELD MORE SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHC FOR TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MON NIGHT AND FOR THE ERN
PORTION OF CWA ON TUE AS ECMWF INDICATES NEG SHOWALTER INDICES IN
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI AND MID CLDS ARND INTO THIS
EVNG...PERSISTENT DRY ESE FETCH WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES THRU AT LEAST SUNSET. BUT THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS BY LATE EVNG AS WELL AS AN APRCHG WARM FNT/LOWERING
INVRN/INCRSGLY MOIST AIRMASS TAPPED BY THE SE FLOW...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE TNGT AT SAW AND CMX...WHERE THIS FLOW WL
UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WIND AT IWD SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THERE. SOME MARGINAL LLWS MAY IMPACT ALL 3 SITES WITH THE
STRENGTHENING/LOWERING FRONTAL INVRN...ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE THE
LLVL WINDS ABV THE MORE STABLE NEAR SFC LYR WL BE STRONGER. MORE
LLVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC WARM FNT WL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD ON THU MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
EXPECT ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TO VEER TO THE SE THRU THU AS LO PRES
IN THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT
BACK ON THE COVERAGE. BUT AS MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE
DAY AND THU NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE S AHEAD OF THE LO MOVING
THRU MN...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE W. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE ON FRI NIGHT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HI SHIFTS
TO THE E AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
PASSES ON MON...THE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND THEN THE TO NW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE EARLY MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
WITH THE RECENT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
HAVE SLOWLY COME DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR CHASSELL REMAINS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWN
FROM NOHRSC MODEL FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACT
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY HI
AMPLITUDE RDG BLDG FM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP TROF IN THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE
TROF. ONE LO IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OVER THE DESERT
SW. THE LO OVER THE DESERT SW WL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON UPR MI WX.
WARM FNT TO THE E OF ASSOCIATED LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING E THRU IOWA TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...WITH H85 FNT MOVING N
INTO SRN MN/WI. A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVED
ENEWD WELL N OF THE WARM FNT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SCENTRAL COUNTIES
THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BEST DEPICTED ON THE
12Z APX RAOB AND HIER STABILITY THAT IS PRESENT FARTHER TO THE N PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS LIMITED THE N PUSH OF THESE SHRA/TS INTO THE
CWA. ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING OTHER THAN SOME GENERAL WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER BLDG UPR RDG SO FAR TO THE NE OF MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM CLOSER TO THE DESERT SW UPR LO IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WX THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY JUST THICKER HI CLDS IMPACTING
AREAS AWAY FM THE SCENTRAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU THU INVOLVE POPS/ELEVATED TS CHCS AND
INTENSITY TO THE N OF APRCHG SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DVLPMNT.
TNGT...UPR LO OVER THE DESERT SW IF FCST TO MOVE TO THE NE AND REACH
THE WCENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THU. AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NE AS WELL...ATTENDANT SFC WARM FNT IS FCST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO
THE N INTO SCNTRL WI...BUT THE H85 FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE
QUICKLY N THRU THE CWA. THE MOST APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/
UPR DVCG THAT IS NOW SUPPORTING MORE NMRS SHRA/SOME TS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE AREA FM THE W THIS EVNG
AND IMPACT MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE
LATER. AT LEAST SCT SHRA/SOME TS WL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE ESE
PARALLEL TO THE APRCHG H85 WARM FNT IN LINE WITH FCST CORFIDI
VECTORS AND TOWARD STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE CONVECTION WL
BE ELEVATED...PWAT WL BE APRCHG 200 PCT OF NORMAL AS WARMER/MOISTER
AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS UP TO 12C FOLLOWING THE WARM FNT...AND FCST
SDNGS IN THE MORE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOW THIN SKINNY CAPE...SUSPECT
HEAVY RA WL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT SOME HAIL MAY FALL OVER THE
STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR THE SRN END OF THE SHRA AREA...WHERE FCST
SDNGS SHOW STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES /ALBEIT WITH A BIT MORE OF A
CAP/ AND H85-3 WIND SHEAR IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LYR IS AOA 40-50
KTS. THIS CAPPING WL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER FOLLOWING THE H85
WARM FROPA AND TEND TO DIMINISH POPS FM THE SW. AS THE LLVLS TO THE
N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNT INVRN MOISTEN...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP LATE...MAINLY WHERE THE EXPECTED ESE NEAR SFC FLOW UPSLOPES OFF
LK MI. BUT TENDED TO CUT BACK ON THE FOG FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR STILL
VERY DRY LLVLS. WITH INCRSG MSTR AND THE APRCH OF THE WARM FNT...
EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL.
THU...AS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRI...SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW MN BY 00Z FRI...WITH SFC WARM
FNT TO THE E ARPCHG THE WI BORDER LATE. EXPECT PLENTY OF LO CLD TO
THE N OF INCRSGLY SHALLOW WARM FNTL INVRN WITH SOME FOG AS WELL IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE LLVL SE WIND TO THE N OF
THE FNT. BEST CHC FOR MORE NMRS SHRA/TS WL BE IN THE MRNG OVER THE
NE HALF BEFORE CAPPING BEHIND H85 WARM FROPA/AREA OF DEEP LYR
FORCING SHIFT TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
STRENGTHENING OF CAPPING INVRN. PREFER THE 12Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE POPS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND AWAY FM LIKELY CAP. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUNSHINE WL BE
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH DOWNSLOPE SE WIND UNDER MID LVL CAPPING/
DRYING. HI TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 70 IN THIS AREA. LINE OF SHRA/TS
FED BY THIS HEATING AND CLOSER APRCH OF THE LO MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES FAR WRN UPR MI
IS UNDER THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES APRCHG 40-50KTS TOWARD 00Z IN THIS AREA AT THE TIME THE LINE
OF CVNCTN MIGHT BE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SHARPER
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND FCST MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG...STRONGER
STORMS WL BE PSBL IF SFC BASED PARCELS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES 12Z THU AND THIS TROUGH HEADS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THU AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. NAM
BRINGS IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K SURFACES
ON THU WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. NAM ALSO
BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON THU THAT LASTS
INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING.
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE CONVECTION IS TOUGH AND BROADBRUSHED IT FOR
THE MOST PART WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN FOR THU. THU NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND WENT CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST. HAVE A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING POPS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES OVERALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE FOG IS A GOOD BET
ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT. THE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z SUN WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z MON AND INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN FOR THE AREA IS THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY DRY PERIOD LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI AND MID CLDS ARND INTO THIS
EVNG...PERSISTENT DRY ESE FETCH WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES THRU AT LEAST SUNSET. BUT THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS BY LATE EVNG AS WELL AS AN APRCHG WARM FNT/LOWERING
INVRN/INCRSGLY MOIST AIRMASS TAPPED BY THE SE FLOW...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE TNGT AT SAW AND CMX...WHERE THIS FLOW WL
UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WIND AT IWD SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THERE. SOME MARGINAL LLWS MAY IMPACT ALL 3 SITES WITH THE
STRENGTHENING/LOWERING FRONTAL INVRN...ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE THE
LLVL WINDS ABV THE MORE STABLE NEAR SFC LYR WL BE STRONGER. MORE
LLVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC WARM FNT WL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT CMX AND SAW AND TO MVFR AT IWD ON THU MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
EXPECT ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TO VEER TO THE SE THRU THU AS LO PRES
IN THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE WINDS. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND CUT
BACK ON THE COVERAGE. BUT AS MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE
DAY AND THU NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE S AHEAD OF THE LO MOVING
THRU MN...THE FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE W. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE ON FRI NIGHT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HI SHIFTS
TO THE E AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
PASSES ON MON...THE LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND THEN THE TO NW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE EARLY MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES.
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
RAIN LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING
SHOWN FROM NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE
HOW THIS SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK/ IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOW COULD MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WAS JUST CROSSING THE BORDER FROM MO
INTO IA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
CO/KS/NEB. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BANDS OF STORMS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING. ONE EXTENDS FROM CLEVELAND BACK TO GREEN BAY THAT YOU CAN
FOLLOW BACK TO SHOWERS IN THE DULUTH AREA AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED CAPE. AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION /WHERE H7 TEMPS EXCEED +9C/ YOU WILL FIND A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE MN/IA. MPXWRF AND SPCWRF PRETTY MUCH NAILED
THESE STORMS...SO FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THESE MODELS FOR WORKING
HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF A MANKATO/RED WING/CHIP FALLS LINE THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE RAPS DEPICTION OF THE LLJ VEERING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT NORTH...IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THESE STORMS WILL NOT BUILD MUCH FARTHER NORTH OF THEIR CURRENT
LATITUDE AND WILL INSTEAD HEAD MORE OR LESS DOWN I-90 INTO CENTRAL
WI WITH THE LLJ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THESE...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP NEAR 30 KTS AND CAPE BETWEEN
-10C AND -30C /HAIL CAPE/ UP AROUND 500 J/KG...WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE THE OCCASIONAL STORM PUT OUT HAIL THAT GETS UP IN
THE 1 INCH TERRITORY OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.
BEHIND THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...H7 TEMPS WILL PUSH UP TO BETWEEN 8
AND 10C...WITH A VERY DRY PLUME OF AIR COMING IN IN THE H7-H5 LEVEL
AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MPX AREA CAPPED AND DRY MUCH OF
THE DAY AS WE WATCH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA. BY PEAK
HEATING...THIS WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE UP NEAR I-90. WARM SECTOR
COMING UP WITH THIS FRONT IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT HAS SPENT THE
LAST THREE DAYS BREAKING RECORD HIGHS ACROSS TX/OK/KS...SO IT WILL
BE WARM TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S LIKELY CLEAR UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT STILL MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST AS OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD
HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S/60S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE
FEELING LIKE SUMMER. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THIS FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS MID 80S ALONG I-90 THAT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-94. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TEMPS
THOUGH. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA RIGHT
NOW...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER US THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SOMETHING MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ALL MORNING
IS POSSIBLE...WHICH IS LOWER 90S COMING UP AS FAR NORTH AS
MANKATO/REDWOOD FALLS...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE CITIES...WITH
EVEN THE COLDER AREAS AROUND LADYSMITH PUSHING 70.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS WHEN DOES THE CAP BREAK.
ONCE IT DOES...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE MPX
CWA. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NW
OF THE CAP...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY OUT
FROM CENTRAL SODAK INTO NW MN. EVENTUALLY...A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO ERODE THE CAP.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE SPCWRF AND THE NMM/ARW WITH
ACTIVITY TAKING OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 4Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS UP AROUND 50 KTS...IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...SO THE DAY1 SLIGHT RISK IS MORE THAN WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH NO
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON...IF WE WERE TO
SEE SOMETHING GO IT WOULD HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING
SEVERE...WITH A TORNADO THREAT IF IT IS CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE WARM/DRY LAYER NOTED EARLIER AROUND H7 WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP ANYTHING FROM GOING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH ONLY ONE DRY PERIOD
FORECAST AND THAT IS FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY IS THE DAY OF
INTEREST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN WHILE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY ON ALLOWING FOR THE DESTABILIZATION
TO COMMENCE. PROJECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE
FOR 0-1KM SHEAR TO BE IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI ARE ALSO IN A FAVORABLE COUPLED JET ALOFT WITH 100
KNOT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHERN MN WHILE A 100+ KNOT JET
SURGES INTO EASTERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE IS QUITE STRONG BY EVENING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES.
ALSO...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO 0-3KM CAPE REACHING
100-150 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN CLOSE TO THE TWIN
CITIES. HENCE...A SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY WITH ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INCLUDING A
FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WI AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO RUN INTO THE 80S FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA
ON FRIDAY UNDER THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FRIDAY
NIGHT IS THE ONLY DRY PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS DEVELOPS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS WOULD BE FLATTER
AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC IS MORE ROBUST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
WE COULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
MAINLY AFFECT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI BETWEEN 01Z-06Z. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE. THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE MORING IN WESTERN MN AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE NORTH TODAY...AND IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THAT MOST
OF THE 2000-3000FT CEILINGS WILL STAY IN FAR WESTERN MN.
KMSP...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS /INCLUDING THE EVENING PUSH/. WE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN MN LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 02-04Z...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. WE ARE
MUCH LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS ITSELF NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. THE SECOND ROUND HAS A BETTER
CHANCE AT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS S BECOMING W AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
324 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY SLOW MOVING TROF OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH WITH DIMINISHED PCPN RATES. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS IMPACTING OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS...SO HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORNS.
COLDER TOPS CONTINUE FOR OUR WEST...AND SOME CONVECTION IN WESTERN
WY MAY FEED INTO THE MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET
THE WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS RIDE INTO THE EVENING.
COLE CREEK SNOTEL IN THE MTNS ABOVE RED LODGE HAS ALREADY PICKED
UP AT LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY
LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. SFC RIDGING IN
EASTERN MT SUPPORTS LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH A LITTLE CLEARING FROM THE NW LATER ON.
12Z GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT RECENT RAP RUNS SEEM TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED
FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM 06-15Z. OTHER IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF YOU
HAVE SENSITIVE PLANTS OUTDOORS.
QUIET DAY IN STORE TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE WEST AND WE
BEGIN TO WARM UP. ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
ALMOST ENTIRELY MISS OUR CWA TO THE SE...SO A DRY FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD FOR TOMORROW AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
WEST.
NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY...GIVING US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THIS
ENERGY SO COULD SEE SHOWERS IN OUR WEST BY MORNING...SO NOT QUITE
AS GOOD A CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY AS A RESULT FOR OUR WEST.
NONETHELESS WITH GOOD QG FORCING HAVE RAISED POPS FRI AND FRI
NITE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO TURN PCPN BACK TO SNOW
FOR OUR MTNS BY FRI EVENING...WITH A BIT OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
MTNS FRI NITE. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS FRI AFTN AND
EVENING PER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI WILL REACH THE 60S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN OUR EAST W/ LATER
FROPA.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT WET...AFTER A WARMER
FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6000 FT ACROSS THE REGION...SO MOST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDE THIS RIDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POP VALUES AROUND CLIMO UNTIL
CERTAINTY BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IN SIGHT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STUNT
THE MELTING OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWPACK ANOTHER WEEK. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
KBIL...KMLS...AND KSHR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM WORKS
ITS WAY EASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL PRESENT
ITSELF...ESPECIALLY AT KBIL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CAUSING
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/057 040/065 043/058 038/057 040/062 042/065 043/062
51/B 04/T 55/W 43/W 33/W 22/W 44/W
LVM 025/061 037/061 036/055 035/056 035/059 038/064 039/064
51/U 16/T 55/W 43/W 33/W 32/W 22/W
HDN 032/057 033/068 039/060 034/060 037/064 039/067 040/064
51/B 03/T 64/W 53/W 33/W 22/W 44/W
MLS 033/057 035/069 043/059 037/058 038/062 041/064 042/060
31/B 02/T 55/W 52/W 23/W 23/W 44/W
4BQ 032/054 034/068 041/059 035/058 036/061 039/064 040/060
52/W 01/B 54/W 32/W 23/W 22/W 33/W
BHK 033/054 032/067 041/059 035/056 036/058 038/060 039/057
31/B 01/U 55/W 42/W 22/W 23/W 33/W
SHR 031/054 031/065 038/056 032/055 034/059 036/063 037/062
52/W 02/T 54/W 44/W 34/W 33/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
357 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHEAST WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WERE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THERE...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
90S ALSO SEEN/EXPECTED. IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA...DEEPER MIXING WAS
OCCURRING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WERE DRYING LOW
LEVELS AND BOOSTING TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT WERE NOSING INTO JEFFERSON/SALINE COUNTIES AS OF 2 PM...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST ACROSS RED FLAG WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THAT GOING INTO THE EVENING.
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION WERE OF NOTE AT EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. CONGESTUS-LOOKING
CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO IGNITE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CLOUD
TOP COOLING ALGORITHMS WERE SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THOSE
CLOUDS TO CONVECT. BUT IF THEY DO...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY RIDE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS
NOTED OVER THIS AREA...SO THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE NOTHING WILL
GO CLOSE TO OUR AREA...FOCUSING ACTIVITY MORE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE INHIBITION IS LOW.
KANSAS POTENTIAL CONVECTION WAS BUBBLING UP UNDER INCREASING MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 90S.
DRYLINE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ADDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
THE MIX. ALSO OF NOTE...MESOSCALE MODELS RAP AND HRRR ALONG WITH
NAM12 EVENTUALLY BUBBLE CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOVE THAT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE INTERACTION WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL. CINH IS LOWERING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE DEW POINTS HAD ONLY MIXED INTO THE 50S...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE. SO GIVEN INSTABILITY...FRONT IN THE AREA...AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL DATA FIRING CONVECTION...WILL ADD AT LEAST
SMALL POPS TO MOST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE...WITH AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
THEN LATER TONIGHT...STORMS FIRING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REGION
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANY MORNING STORMS TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID MORNING BEFORE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MARCHING EAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. VARYING MODEL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
STILL APPARENT...BUT WERE BETTER IN LINE SHOWING BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AT TIME OF MAX HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WEST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND CLOSE TO 50KT OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL RESIDE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO FIRE. STORMS WILL RACE NORTHEAST AS FRONT
PUSHES EAST...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR THOSE AREAS. SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND EXITING FRONT...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVE INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. AS WAVE TRACKS EAST ON
SATURDAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE
MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY...THEN PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BUT ALL POINT TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AT LEAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING-TYPE SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH FOCUSING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD. SO HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD BRING ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 18Z WITH
WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OUT OF COLORADO TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KLNK AND
KOMA AS THEY REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE MORE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KOFK WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
03Z-12Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ050-051-
065>068-078-088>090.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
353 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
NEARING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO NOTED EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS ENHANCED
FLOW THEN SPLITS INTO TWO BRANCHES...WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS
WELL AS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION IS NOTED MOVING FROM WEST-TEXAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY
LINE IS NOTED EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW
AND AS OF 20Z WAS NOTED FROM NEAR KBIE...TO NEAR KCNK...TO NEAR
KGBD. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWESTERN
CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRY LINE...HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST...WITH THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST...AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT
WAVE...FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THUS
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESULTANT OMEGA TO OUR NORTHWEST AS
WELL. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE
HRRR...1KM WRF-ARW...1KM WRF-NMM AND 4KM WRF-NMM. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM SOME SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD BRUSH OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
WANT TO MONITOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CASE IT TRIES TO MAKE A
PUSH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTION COULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE DRY LINE ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SINCE
THIS DRY LINE HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA ANY RESULTANT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE INTO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~60KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THIS JET APPEAR AS THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS
...SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND
1KM WRF-ARW. COVERAGE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST
AND THUS DID NOT WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20% POP FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THE MOST PART.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING POPS ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT EXTREME
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST COULD ALSO OBSERVE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS
OUR EXTREME EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM
AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST PARCELS ROOTED TO AROUND 800MB WILL
HAVE ~1000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY WITH MINIMAL CIN. DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SO
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DOES NOT SEEM OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FOR TONIGHT IN THE
HWO. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER OUR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA SO WENT AHEAD
WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THAT WAY. ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE INTRUSION OF A DRIER
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL LIKELY PREVENT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FROM CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE 1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR COULD APPROACH 50KTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...THUS PROMOTING A COOLER DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ALOFT: MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FROM THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOW
THAT THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE WRN USA THRU MON
5/12...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN USA. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL EXIT E OF THE REGION FRI...TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING THE WRN
USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL
DROP INTO THE WRN TROF SAT...RESULTING IN RE-AMPLIFICATION SUN-
MON. BY THIS TIME FRAME...THE USUAL MODEL BIASES APPEAR WITH THE
06Z/12Z GFS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP...AND THE
00Z/12Z GEM ON THE SLOWEST SIDE. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC DO
FAVOR THE SLOWER GEM. EVEN THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE UKMET COINCIDE
WITH THE GEM. THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR RAINFALL. THIS RENEWED TROF
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS TUE AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA WED-FRI
WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
THE TROF MOVING INTO THE W SAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE TROF E INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE ENERGY
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL SLIP S INTO THE REGION THU
NIGHT WITH THE COOL FRONT DEPARTING FURTHER TO THE S AND E. A NEW
LEE SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP FRI...WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW ADVANCING
THRU THE NRN PLAINS FRI-SAT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH/. THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU HERE FRI
NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUN AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE W...AND CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THE FRONT...ACROSS KANSAS CITY
MON MORNING...AND SHOULD BE OVER IL BY 00Z/TUE BASED ON THE 00Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES WILL ENVELOP THE PLAINS TUE-
WED.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX...THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRI-WED...WITH VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 DAY OF
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. RIGHT NOW IT/S MON. ANOTHER VERY
GOOD ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE EXITING COOL FRONT WILL NOT
PLUNGE DEEP INTO THE S. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THE
LOW WILL ALSO BE TRACKING S OF THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
BENEFICIAL/SOAKING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS REALLY
ISNT MODELED YET...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH THE FRONT
HAVING ANABATIC CHARACTER.
THE 16Z WPC EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION WAS REVIEWED.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN S-SE OF THE TRI-
CITIES. DOESNT CURRENTLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME SUN-MON.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: CLEARING AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
FRI NIGHT: INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEGATIVE TILT NRN
PLAINS TROF MOVES THRU ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT
TROPOPAUSE JET.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED SPRINKLES HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF I-80. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE NO LOWER THAN 10K FT. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN.
SAT: MORNING COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CHANCE OF MORNING
SHWRS/TSTMS WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST AND REPLACED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THEN CLEARING AND A
LITTLE WARMER.
SAT NIGHT: A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL INDUCE STRONG
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH THE LLJ VEERING THRU THE NIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO BE E OF THE FCST AREA.
SUN-MON: LOTS OF DETAILS LEFT TO BE DETERMINED. BELIEVE ODDS ARE
VERY HIGH OUR CURRENT HIGH TEMPS ARE WAY TOO WARM BOTH DAYS. WE
ARE BASICALLY CARRYING 60-70F. CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST
50S AND THIS LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
BLUSTERY N WINDS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
TUE: DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NW FLOW ALOFT.
WED: NW FLOW MAY DELIVER A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL 03Z...MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
03-14Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERIODIC CLOUD COVER NEAR 4000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~60KT JET AXIS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THIS STRATUS WILL IMPACT GRI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CEILING NEAR
2000FT AGL COULD RESULT AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH REGARDING THIS STRATUS...WITH MULTIPLE SETS OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUCH CONDITIONS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE
MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. THERMAL ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR GRI TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS 08-14Z
AS A RESULT. INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING POST-SUNRISE ON THURSDAY SHOULD DIMINISH
ANY STRATUS THAT IS REALIZED...THUS THE VFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE
FORECAST 14Z ONWARD IN THE TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WIND FIELD...ALONG WITH NEAR-ZERO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...COULD ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AT
GRI...THUS 5SM IN BR HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF 08-14Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-063-064-
074>077-083>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ISOLATED ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR AND RAP REALLY ARE NOT HANDLING THE STORM TRACK AS
THESE METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGED MODELS PREFER TO TRACK THE
ACTIVITY MORE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST NEB VS THE WRN SANDHILLS.
THIS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE STORM(S) BECOMING ROOTED IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES. AT ANY RATE THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE STORMS
WILL EITHER WEAKEN BEFORE 12Z OR CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD SCNTL SD.
A BLEND OF THE NAM...RAP...ECM...SREF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SUGGESTED SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS ANALYZED A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLO AT 07Z WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NWRN NEB THIS MORNING TO
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND THIRD H7 WAVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR FROM KIML TO KONL AND SOUTH
DRY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OFF THE
FRONT RANGE THIS AFTN AND SWEEP NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN AND NERN
ZONES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBVIOUS WITH BULK SHEAR 50
KTS OR GREATER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACHING 4
CORNERS LOW. SPC HATCHED AN EGG OF VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE WRN
SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH SRN AND NERN NEB LATE THIS AFTN. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT. THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO AND 15 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES WOULD
APPEAR CONDITIONALLY TIED TO STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SFC FRONT
WHICH LIFTS NORTH OF I-80 AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN AND THEN DROPS BACK
SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING...PRESUMABLY ELEVATED...WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS
LIFT A DECENT SHOT OF PV15 THROUGH THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR...CURRENTLY IN MONTANA DROPS THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR A ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANGING TO WET HEAVY SNOW. THE
NAM BACKS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY RIGHT UP AGAINST THE RAIN SNOW
LINE ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 09Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SLOW GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS MT AND THE RAIN SNOW LINE OVER
NERN WY. THE RAP CAN FIGURE THIS OUT LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW THE RAP HAS THE H700MB FREEZING LINE MOVING THROUGH SERN WY
AT 00Z THIS EVENING SO A QUICKER CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE
BEST GUESS ON SNOW AMOUNTS USES THE NAM...GEMREG...SREF AND ECM FOR
QPF WITH A 5 OT 1 RATIO FOR UP TO 4 INCHES IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS AT 06Z VS THE NAM MODEL
SHOWING 09Z. THE RAP HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER THIS SPRING IN RAIN
SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED THE NAM.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY 09Z-15Z
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. THE SURFACE PATTERN FAVORS A
NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING LOW TOWARD MINNESOTA AND FINALLY INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA LEAVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER WAVE. THIS WAVE...AS IT/S
PREDECESSOR...WILL DRAG AN ADDITIONAL FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK...WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
FOR THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR WHICH THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A
DEEP SATURATION...AT TIMES EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ...BUT WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND SFC T/S NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C CREATE LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE IS SHOWN TO SET UP IN THIS AREA...CO-LOCATED IN THE
TROWAL REGION OF THE SYSTEM...SNOW RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY BEFORE 15Z.
CONSEQUENTLY...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEFORMATION...SNOW RATES
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SLUSH ACCUMULATION PAST 15Z THURSDAY.
FORECAST TIMING WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY CHANGE
WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
WITH LOW LEVEL CAA ONGOING...HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
CHILLY...40S FOR THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY SOME 60S SOUTHEAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS ANY
CLEARING WOULD LEAD TO SUB 0C LOWS...WITH THE THREAT OF A LIGHT
FREEZE. ATTM...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS ON SLOWER
SIDE...KEEPING SUFFICIENT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. ATTM...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING A DAMAGING FREEZE /TO YOUNG
PLANTS/...ESPECIALLY IF SNOW TOTALS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THE ENTIRE NORTH PLATTE CWA HAS NOT REACHED THE 50
PERCENTILE FOR LAST FREEZE DATE...WE DO NOT PLAN TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ATTM.
FRIDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW DIRECTING WAA BACK INTO THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. BUT A FAST MOVING WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW MAY SPARK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO
FOLLOW. AGAIN SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WON/T BE TOO FAR OFF FROM
CLIMO...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND DESPITE DIFFERENCES
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POPS LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM TO BRING AN ARRAY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DID
INCLUDE TSRA AT KLBF...HOWEVER KLBF LIKELY TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE ACTIVITY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE KVTN WILL SEE AN IMPACT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERN NEB...INCLUDING THE KVTN AREA...WILL
SEE RAIN SHOWERS. FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD SEE SOME SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NEZ004.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
137 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST POPS
FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1830 UTC...BLENDED TO THE 17
UTC RAP AND THE REMAINING 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS WHICH
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 21-00 UTC AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST
WITH MULTIPLE LOCATIONS AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY CONTINUING TO
REPORT SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
UPDATE TO ADD SNOW AND SLEET TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AS OF 1530 UTC. THIS IS BASED UPON MULTIPLE REPORTS
BETWEEN WATFORD CITY AND WILLISTON AND THE KEENE AREAS AND DUAL POL
SIGNATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 826 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TO THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH
13 UTC...INCORPORATING THE 11 UTC RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL DECKS ARE THINNING
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS MATCH THE ONGOING FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR MATCHES THE LATEST RADAR OBS AND
FORECAST TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER
LOW NOW ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BECOME
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SEVERAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY AND THUS FAR LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR CONFIRMS THIS.
OVERALL POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SEEING
HIGHEST POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN PAINTED ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE INVERTED
TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SHERWOOD
TO MINOT...SOUTH TO CENTER AND INTO MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY REACHING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ESSENTIALLY COVERING THE 00Z-06Z
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE BORDER AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS PER GFS
FOLLOW THIS TREND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HETTINGER TO BISMARCK TO HARVEY. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME OVER NORTH DAKOTA...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES/QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO DRY SLOTTING. AS
A RESULT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO VALUES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KMOT IN RAIN...STRATUS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS THROUGH 20 UTC AND 22-23
UTC AT KJMS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KJMS
THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EDGE OF A STRONG
CAP LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION TRENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME. THE RAP13 HAS HANDLED CONVECTIVE TRENDS FAIRLY WELL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HRRR LESS SO...AND THE RAP AS WELL AS A
COUPLE HI RES MODELS INDICATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA GREAT LAKES/PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IF THE
CAP CAN BE BROKEN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...PRESENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS WOULD INDICATE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BE
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL FRONT ORIENTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THEN CURVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...SHORTER TERM MODELS ALSO HINTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...POSSIBLY WORKING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH COOL UPPER 40S IN OUR
FAR WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WHILE DROPPING ONLY
INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH DIFFERING ON
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM/GEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING OUR EAST FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THROUGH THE GFS/ECMWF OFFER A WETTER
SOLUTION. IN ANY EVENT...BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE COOLER/DEEPER SATURATED LAYER.
THERE AGAIN WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH PLACES IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...WHILE BACK TO THE WEST HIGHS WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER...IT WILL PROBABLY
COME DOWN TO TIMING...AS THE INSTABILITY WANES PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD...THOUGH IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN OUR FAR EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT MAXIMUM HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
WAVE EXITS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY LEAVING
RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES QUICKLY...
AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT WHERE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN THE
STABLE AIR. LOOKING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST IA IS
MORE IN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE/DRY SLOT AREA SO NOT REAL KEEN ON
PRECIP CHANCES IN THAT LOCATION AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT RATHER BREEZY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
BUT A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.
IF WE MIX A BIT HIGHER...WE MAY NEED TO TACK ON A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MORE TO THESE READINGS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG SURGE OF THETAE ADVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY HARMLESS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE
STARVED BELOW ABOUT 600MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW THE CRUX OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES PER THE UPPER QG FORCING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT...SO 50 POPS
WERE PLACED EAST OF I 29. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS RATHER
ABUNDANT AT THIS TIME...SO JUST OPTED TO GO PURE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. FOR
HIGHS...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND WELL MIXED DAY AND
WITH A WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 60S IN
HURON TO MID 70S AT SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE.
IN THE EXTENDED...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLUTION WHICH IS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. BUT ADMITTEDLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL BECAUSE
EACH MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTPUTS.
MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH MAY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...DRY SLOT MAY RULE AND DID NOT
INCLUDE CONVECTION AT KFSD AND KSUX...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT OUT.
DOES LOOK LIKE CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
MVFR/UPPER IFR RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
104 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
DECREASE POP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF ABERDEEN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER LLM AND SHEAR
FURTHER EAST IS RESULTING IN MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS WITH RADAR
SHOWING SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING INTO SE NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BOTH SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWA THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES. THE 06Z HRRR BRINGS CONVECTIVE REMNANTS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SIMILAR ATTEMPTS BY SHOWERS TO CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY
TO WASH OUT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM.
MODELS DO HAVE A BETTER DEFINED WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY. BEST ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF A KMBG
TO KPHP LINE. INSTABILITY PEAKS JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. LOOKING AT NAM/RAP
PROFILES...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE FRONT
IS SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND GUIDANCE HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN
THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THIS
FEATURE NORTHEAST BETWEEN KPIR AND KMBG...THOUGH SREF GUIDANCE IS
A TAD FARTHER WEST. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH QPF
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED WITHIN MOST
GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 30 MICROBARS OF LIFT BY 12Z
THURSDAY. TROWAL WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HELPING TO DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN SD SATURDAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP SAT MORNING BEFORE A
MORE WELL DEVELOPED SFC LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO ND. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE SFC SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AT JUST WHEN THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INFLUENCE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE PRECIP ONLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS
THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A DRIER
SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS OCCURRING WHEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
REGIONAL SATL AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS LAST OF THE MORNING SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND SOME
BINOVC OR CLR SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN SD. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE AFTN. KEPT VCTS FOR
LATER THIS AFTN AT ATY AS EAST CENTRAL SD STANDS THE BEST CHC TO
SEE TSTORMS DEVELOP. PUSHED RAIN CHANCES BACK FARTHER INTO THE
EVENING FOR ABR AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREA OF PCPN MOVING
IN AFTER SUNSET AND LATE TONIGHT. HELD ONTO RAIN CHANCES FOR PIR
AND MBG EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BEST SHOT OF RAIN LATE AS WELL.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MRNG HRS
THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...VIPOND
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH ...COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REGARDING POPS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC HAS GENERATED
WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT RAIN HAVE REACHED THE GROUND IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT A
DRY 900-650MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY VIRGA THUS FAR. MODELS
VARY WIDELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT...
AND THE POORLY SAMPLED PACIFIC PLUME OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM ACROSS MEXICO ARE NOT HELPING. GENERALLY
MODELS DO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LAYER MOISTENING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH 850MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY.
PWATS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY ARE AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.
GFS AND HRRR INDICATING ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
ALONG WITH 4KM TEXAS TECH WRF. ECMWF EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...NAM12 WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH QPF AND
HI RES NMM/ARW KEYING IN ON AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS UPSTREAM IN MEXICO HAVE SIDED TOWARDS LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT...
WITH THE FEELING THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTENING OF THE DRY LAYER OUT WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AGAIN MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS MOVING WEST INTO CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY AREAS OF THE CWA. GOOD CHANCES FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND AREAS OF THE
COASTAL BEND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS CAP ERODES AND MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. BETTER JET
DYNAMICS MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND IF ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. OVERALL THROUGH...CONFIDENCE IN THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS LOW GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.
&&
.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND DIFFICULT TO FIND A CLEAR
MODEL WINNER SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PACKAGE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN
TYPICAL. GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...THEN TAPERING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
AFTER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY...A STRONGER WAVE LOOKS
TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. GFS IS MORE THAN 12 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON PROJECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE FAITH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AS USUAL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO FORECAST PACKAGE IS SOMEWHAT WARMER
AND CLOUDIER THAN WHAT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. BY
WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENT HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH DRIER
OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 86 73 87 73 / 20 50 30 40 30
VICTORIA 73 84 73 86 70 / 20 50 30 40 30
LAREDO 77 94 75 97 76 / 40 30 20 30 20
ALICE 74 89 73 90 72 / 30 50 30 40 30
ROCKPORT 74 80 73 86 73 / 20 30 30 40 30
COTULLA 74 92 72 93 71 / 40 50 20 30 20
KINGSVILLE 74 88 74 89 73 / 20 50 30 30 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 82 74 84 74 / 20 40 30 30 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
359 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES SHOWED DISSIPATING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR REGION MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN VA TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH CU FIELDS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CAP IS STILL HOLDING DESPITE THE SOLAR HEATING...BUT IT IS
WEAKENING. HRRR GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN BUT KEPT MOST OF THE STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM AND
GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS..ALLOWED FOR JUST A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ELECTED TO ADD THE MENTION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
RIDGES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP IN THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S
TO UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A
STRONG LAYER OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HINDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY REFER TO CLIMATE
SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THU NIGHT WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL BE BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THINK ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW WHICH BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS EDGE CLOSER
AND BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WRN CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A SVR THREAT GIVEN TIMING AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT STAYS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECWMF ENSEMBLES OVERALL PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE
UPPER PATTERN GOES FROM A SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH 5H TROUGH DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MIDWEEK. MAIN FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH LEE TROUGH...UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
SUNDAY. WILL SEE DIURNAL TYPE CYCLE FOR POPS INTO MONDAY WITH SFC
HIGH SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST WITH WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER NOVA/NORTHERN WV. HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AS
WELL.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD TUE-WED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CLOSE IN WITH BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. CU FIELDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF CWA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS WEDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ALL AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP LATE
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AT LWB/LYH/BCB.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESE-SE MOST SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5-8KTS...BECOMING CALM/VRB03KT AROUND 00Z THU...THEN SW
AFTER 12Z THU.
ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
COOL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
REGIONAL WSR-88D LOOP SHOWED MAIN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF OUR REGION ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WESTERN MD. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED LOW CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS OUR CWA.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A GOOD
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 943 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MIXING OUT THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RICHES CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVERDONE WITH
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR CWA. PREFER THE HRRR WITH STORMS
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. MATCHES UP NICELY WITH SWODY1
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. THIS SEEM REASONABLE WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD TODAY. CAPPED ALOFT WAS QUITE HEALTHY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. WITH PATCHY
CLOUDINESS...AND COOL WEDGE WILL HOLD WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO RAISE HIGHS DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN ISC GRIDS. MORE
CHANGES LATER....
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVED BACK WEST
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING...AND EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED FROM
NEAR LWB-BLF-TNB. AS EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
SIF-ROA-LYH. FAIRLY FAVORABLE WEDGE PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THUS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL TODAY WITH EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...MID 70S ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES...APPROACHING 80 IN FAR SW VA/SOUTHERN WV...WHICH WILL
EITHER REMAIN WEST OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY OR MOVE BACK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...THE CHANCE FOR SUCH IN OUR CWA IS
DECREASING. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD...AND TODAY SHOULD
RESIDE FROM NORTHERN WV INTO NORTHERN VA. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
AND A COOL STABLE LAYER AT THE SFC...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION. IN THE FAR SW WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE IT WILL BE CAPPED ALOFT...SO NOTHING EXPECTED THERE
EITHER. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-DAY...BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE
AND THE ALLEGHANY FRONT ALONG-NORTH OF I-64...SUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN
FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS IN
MIND...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEAR TERM. MODEL
INSTABILITY IS GROSSLY OVER ESTIMATED AND MY THINKING IS
CONSISTENT WITH SPCS LACK OF EVEN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR OUR
CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND VERY WARM AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
WARM AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GENERAL DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE 90 IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT MID 80S TO UPPER
70S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A STRONG LAYER
OF STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT...EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE ON THURSDAY. STILL...WILL BE LOOKING AT 80S FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST REGION. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...AND WITH ONLY VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY AND
DISORGANIZED.
LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CAUSE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LOSE ITS COLD AIR PUSH...FORCING IT TO
STALL WEST OF OUR AREA. MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MARGINAL...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMOTE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY RAINFALL WILL MAKE FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S
MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 AROUND DANVILLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK VS. A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING...CAUSING THE
SURFACE FRONT TO GET CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND HOLD WEST OF
OUR AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER SOLUTION OVERALL FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BY MID WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM
SURGE PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE TUESDAY...THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. CU FIELDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF CWA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS WEDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ALL AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP LATE
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AT LWB/LYH/BCB.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESE-SE MOST SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5-8KTS...BECOMING CALM/VRB03KT AROUND 00Z THU...THEN SW
AFTER 12Z THU.
ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER VFR CU FIELDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT UPON CROSSING THE AREA BY
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OCNL MVFR IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...PM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...A SHORTWAVE TURNED MCV IS
EXITING THE STATE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WAKE LOW WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BEHIND THIS MCV...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP FROM WAUSAU TO MANITOWOC IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN 850MB WARM FRONT. THINK THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH. TOUGH TO PICK OUT ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS TO KEY ON FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.
WITH BROAD WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AN
850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THOUGH A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE MAY STILL BE ONGOING BEHIND THE MCV THAT IS EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CURRENTLY...ASCENT OVER THIS WARM FRONT ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...TIMING OF RE-DEVELOPMENT IS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON...SO
KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS EVENING...AND INCREASED
THEM TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7-8 C/KM RANGE...ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1100 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS TO A LESSER
EXTENT.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. HOW QUICKLY THAT WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
IS A BIG QUESTION MARK AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL LIKELY BE
IMPEDED BY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...HAVE A TOUGH TIME SEEING THIS WARM
FRONT REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 00Z FRI. THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THIS WARM FRONT ONLY REACHING THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR BY THIS
TIME SO THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY POPS OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND A CHANCE
EVERYWHERE ELSE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES. CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE FOX VALLEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 60S...ML CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
HAVE FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC/MOISTURE ADVECTION. LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL STILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE TO THE WEST...SO SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES MAY GET DELAYED INTO THE EVENING...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
LOW AMPLITUDE/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO A WEST COAST UPR RDG/E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WL BE THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF
A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TO BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT TO NE WI WHICH TRANSLATES
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...BUT ALSO A WET PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF PCPN.
SFC LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY TRACK NE ACROSS MN THU NGT WHILE THE CDFNT
PUSHES INTO WRN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF WL CONT TO GET PUMPED INTO WI
WITH INDIVIDUAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ENUF SHEAR IS EVIDENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THUS A POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS THU NGT. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
HAVE SUMMER FEEL TO THEM WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S THRU
THE NGT. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S
AROUND DOOR COUNTY TO THE LWR 60S ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU CNTRL WI FRI MORNING/ERN WI EARLY TO MID FRI
AFTERNOON AND WL NEED TO CARRY POPS UNTIL THIS FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. EVEN BEHIND THE FNT...CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHWR
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVE THRU WI.
HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI TO BE OVER ERN WI PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 60S.
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO FRI NGT...
BUT MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENUF TO NE WI TO WARRANT A SMALL POP OVER
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RDG
OF HI PRES WL BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATER FRI NGT AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S NORTH TO THE LWR TO MID
40S SOUTH. THIS SFC RDG QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS WI ON SAT WITH CLOUDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT ANY PCPN OUT OF THE FCST AREA
FOR NOW AND KEPT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE (COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPR TROF SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. SW FLOW ALOFT WL
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH CHC POPS
NECESSARY FROM SAT NGT THRU MON NGT. THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT MON
NGT FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT ON TUE COULD BRING A BREAK IN THE PCPN
BEFORE THE UPR TROF ARRIVES AND BRINGS CHC POPS BACK INTO THE
FCST. TEMPS WL COOL A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT TIMING THESE PERIODS REMAINS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE ROUND MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CURRENTLY
WILL EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN COULD SEE A SEVERAL HOUR
BREAK INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A POP UP
STORM...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL THE EVENING.
THEN THE FOCUS WILL LOOK TOWARD FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...BUT
STORMS COULD TURN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TOO.
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD ALSO ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING. WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO FALL TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AND HUMID AIR
INVADES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
AT 3 AM...WATCHING 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE OTHER ONE IS LOCATED
BETWEEN SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAIRMONT MINNESOTA. BOTH OF
THESE ARE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE STRONG 700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENT AREA. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE LOCATED ONE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF 1000 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE ARW...NMM...HOP WRF
AND SPC WRF SUGGEST THAT THE LATTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT THE HRRR SUGGESTED A SIMILAR SCENARIO...BUT WITH ITS LATEST
RUN IT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO
DOES NOT MAKE A LOT OF SENSE...SO BACKED AWAY FROM FOLLOWING IT.
TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
ARW...NMM...HOP WRF AND SPC WRF. HOWEVER I AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT AS IT MOVES EAST THAT THE NOCTURNAL JET WILL WEAKEN AND THAT
THE CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA.
IF THE CONVECTION DOES HAPPEN TO GET INTO OUR AREA...THE SPC RAP
SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGH
07.14Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMEMT OF SOME ELEVATED
SUPER CELLS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MANY OF THE MESO MODELS AND
AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THIS IS A RESULT OF
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BEING BROUGHT ISENTROPICALLY OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LAYER FORMS A STRONG 800 TO 600 MB CAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND
DEVELOP STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BELOW THE CAP. THIS LOOKS VERY
UNLIKELY BECAUSE ITS SATURATED THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB TOO MUCH.
DUE TO THIS...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME PERIOD.
TONIGHT...MANY OF DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHAT SHOWS UP IN THE ARW AND SPC
WRF. DUE TO THIS...WENT WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF THUNDERSTORMS DID
DEVELOP...IT LOOKS TO BE SO HIGH /BASES OF 2 TO 3 KM/ THAT YOUR
SHEAR IS GREATLY DECREASED TO LESS 25 KNOTS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER THE CAPE PROFILE IS MUCH FATTER THAN THIS
MORNING AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 07.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL USE UP MUCH OF THE
CAPE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.
DUE TO THIS...STILL THINKING THAT THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH THIS PLUME NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL MID MORNING...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
BETWEEN 08.12Z AND 08.15Z.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL EJECTED OUT OF THE LONG WAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA. WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...COOL STABLE EASTERLY FLOW HAS
ANCHORED THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. IN
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW PUSH TO THE NORTH
BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT MORE TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SOME INDICATIONS THAT STORMS COULD FIRE UP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WHETHER KRST WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT FOR NOW INCLUDED A
VCTS GROUP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO 18Z. THIS IS WHEN THE MOST
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS COULD BE EXPERIENCED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING FROM NORTH MCGREGOR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ANYWHERE
FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FALL FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF MCGREGOR...AND MAY INCREASE CRESTS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF MCGREGOR.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE