Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
406 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROUNDING THE TOP OF A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS AXIS
STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEST OF THIS
AXIS...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS PREVAIL. EAST OF THIS
LINE...TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS COOLER...DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE 40S AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION.
MOISTURE OUT THERE APPEARS SHALLOW AND THE LAYER ABOVE THIS WAS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER WITH WESTERLY FLOW. DRY LINE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION/T-STORMS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LATEST RAP SHOWS WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SPREADING EAST WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MEANWHILE WARM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. WIND
SPEEDS AND RH VALUES ACROSS SOUTH PARK...FIREWEATHER ZONE
241...MET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA A FEW HOURS AGO. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD AGAIN SEE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT.
NAM SYNTHETIC IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A THICK MTN
WAVE CLOUD FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER TONIGHT. SEE NO
REASON TO DOUBT THIS WITH THE LONG FETCH OF HIGH ALTITUDE WATER
VAPOR STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH A THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD HANGING OVERHEAD. MODELS...NOTABLY
THE RAP...SHOWS THE SFC TROUGH BACKING UP THE SOUTH PLATTE
VALLEY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS GREELEY AND PLATTEVILLE BY MID-
MORNING. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH LOW 40S DEWPTS AND LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS WEAK SURGE. NAM SHOWS THE MTN WAVE
CLOUD MOVING NORTH UP INTO WYOMING AROUND MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO BE 1-3 DEG
C LOWER THAN THOSE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
THE FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROF INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH ONE
MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP OVER COLORADO ON LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST. THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-15KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
RECENT WINDS AT KDEN HAVE BEEN FROM A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
NOT SURE WE`LL SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT DIA...EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE VERY CLOSE BY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO DRAINAGE AT 7-12KTS
AS ANOTHER THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD FORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ON
MONDAY...LOOK FOR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10KTS IN THE MORNING
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH
MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
LATEST RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POCKET OF NEARLY
250J/KG OF SFC CAPE DIMINISHING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
THEREFORE...THE REMAINING LOW TOPPED -SHRA SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS SE PLYMOUTH/BARNSTABLE AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH ABOUT 9PM.
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES TO FOLLOW. MIXED MID-
UPPER CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AMONGST THE STARS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT DECOUPLING SHOULD STILL ALLOW THE NW FLOW TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKIES/POPS TO BRING
THEM UP TO DATE WITH EXPECTED LATE EVENING TRENDS. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH 00Z...COLD POOL ALOFT PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING S ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND E MA COASTAL
WATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.0- 7.5 C/KM ACROSS E MA AND
SBCAPES NEAR 250 J/KG. HRRR KEEPS THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM. CLEARING TREND
TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS
FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -25C. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN FOR ABUNDANT CU/AC TO DEVELOP. STILL A LOW RISK FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT LESS THAN 50 SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 1-2C WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO HIGH TEMPS LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S NW HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SEABREEZES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS NW MA AND SW NH. TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* HIGHLIGHTS...
- SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK
- UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
05.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE SAME SYNOPTIC
SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM WITH TYPICAL BIASES AND
ISSUES RESOLVING THE FINAL SETUP OF A COLD CUTOFF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOT ONLY
IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE BUT AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE TO SPLIT DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AND
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ENSEMBLES AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A WEAKENING
CUTOFF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...FOLLOWING AN H5 RIDGE WHICH WILL DELIVER MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD AS TO WHERE THIS
CUTOFF FINALLY SETS UP WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED FOR THE
FINAL TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ATTENDANT LOW PRES /WHICH WILL PASS
TO THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND/ AND ANY SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVES.
THEREFORE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED PATTERN PARTICULARLY
FOR THE FRI-WEEKEND...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAFL AND WHEN IT FALLS
REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS...
WED AND THU...
DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AS H5 RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIDE E OF NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WX TO
PREVAIL. DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND
H85...TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 0C BY PEAK
MIXING...SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORMS. BY WED NIGHT AND THU A SFC WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME JAMMED TO THE SW IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT
COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...THEREFORE ITS OVERRUNNING PROCESSES
MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER N THAN SW CT. HAVE
MOST POPS HIGHLIGHTED THERE. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF
A WEAKENED MCS WHICH DEVELOPS W OF THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD ITS
MOISTURE/COLD POOL HOLD TOGETHER IT MAY DELIVER SOME RAINFALL
FURTHER N THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT IN ANY CASE A POTENTIALLY
SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM SW
TO NE. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL THU AS WELL
GIVEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
INFLUENCED FLOW. THEREFORE...DESPITE MODELS ATTEMPTING TO BRING IN
NEAR +4C AIR AT H85 FEEL IT WILL STRUGGLE TO BE WARMER THAN
NORMALS...IF IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR. ONE KEY TO WATCH WILL BE
FINAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
FRI AND THE WEEKEND...
LIKELY THE MOST UNSETTLED PERIOD REGIONWIDE AS THE WARM FRONT
FINALLY MAKES A RUN AT MOVING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTS FROM LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING W OF
THE GREAT LAKES. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT
ACTUALLY DOES CROSS THE REGION AS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AND EVEN
THE GFS TO SOME EXTENT/ STILL SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL IN
BOTH MASS AND THETA FIELDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.0-1.25 INCHES
/NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL/ AND THE SFC LOW PRES
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING THANKS TO
BLOCKED FLOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE E. THEREFORE...WITH
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY WAVES
BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY FRI-SUN...AND THE FACT THAT A SERIES OF
FRONTAL WAVES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT...A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IS WARRANTED AND WILL TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED WET
EVENT UNTIL BETTER HANDLING OF THE INITIALIZING CUTOFF IS
OBSERVED. INSTABILITY ISSUES ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND ARE
ULTIMATELY ALLOWED IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS ARE THE SAME
STORY...BUT THE SUGGESTION OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAN ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF RIDGING /SUGGESTIVE OF DRY WX/ IS LIKELY TO
FOLLOW THE SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES ENDING AROUND SUNDAY...THE
TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TRANSLATE INTO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF ANY DRY WX. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN TOWARD LOW OR NIL
POPS AT LEAST FOR MON AND TUE GIVEN AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY THAT
THE LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE E BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
VFR. SCT -SHRA WILL GRADUALLY END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z FOR EXTREME SE
MA/ISLANDS. NW WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT
03Z AS WELL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO NW AT AROUND 5 KT
EXPECTED AFTERWARD.
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
VFR. BKN CU/AC DEVELOPING DURING TUE THEN CLEARING TUE NIGHT. NW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY
TOMORROW.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW BY LATE DAY/EVENING. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS.
THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN
CT AND EXTREME SE MA. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A
POSSIBILITY.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND
FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY
NW WINDS UNDER 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE NW TO THE SW BY WED EVENING...THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE S TO SE
FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE
WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE
DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUE AS MIN RH VALUES DECREASE
TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 20-25
MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER STATE
OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ON
WED AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS UPDATE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. JUST MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD
COVER GRIDS ACROSS THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT EVEN BE
TOO HIGH FOR SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW ZONES. LIFT WILL
BE GOOD AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL
LIFT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE
OCCURRING AT A TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME
SPOTS (MAINLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT)...WILL KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST. RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 SINCE THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ AS OF 18Z SHOULD SLIDE E-SE
TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO...WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO THE NYC METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 1930Z-2200Z. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE...AND STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KT IF A STRONGER
CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOWER TO THE NORTH/EAST AT
KSWF/KBDR/KGON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY THERE.
W FLOW GUSTING AT OR JUST OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS/KSWF...AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BACK NW THIS
EVENING AFTER COLD FROPA...REMAINING LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS ONLY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT...COULD BE ON TOP OF 310
MAGNETIC UNTIL LATE DAY.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KT EVERYWHERE...AND AROUND 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS UPDATE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. JUST MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD
COVER GRIDS ACROSS THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT EVEN BE
TOO HIGH FOR SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW ZONES. LIFT WILL
BE GOOD AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL
LIFT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE
OCCURRING AT A TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME
SPOTS (MAINLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT)...WILL KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST. RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 SINCE THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. CU ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
CT...AND IT APPEARS A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS BY ABOUT 18Z...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF TEMPO
MVFR CONDS...BUT IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KT IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS NOW LOOK LOWER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
THERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
W FLOW GUSTING AT OR JUST OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BACK NW THIS EVENING AFTER COLD
FROPA...REMAINING LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REMAINING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. NW WINDS G25KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN ANY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KT EVERYWHERE...AND AROUND 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
1114 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. FIRST REGARDING CLOUD
COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. FOR TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED
HIGHS UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
PARTS OF SE CT BASED ON CURRENT 850MB TEMP AND A MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW. DEWPOINTS NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT MIXES DOWN...NOTING FALLING DEWPOINTS AT 850MB AS WELL.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL BE GOOD
AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL LIFT. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND CAPE WILL BE
VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AT A
TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME SPOTS (MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT)...WILL
KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST. THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. CU ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
CT...AND IT APPEARS A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS BY ABOUT 18Z...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF TEMPO
MVFR CONDS...BUT IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KT IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS NOW LOOK LOWER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
THERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
W FLOW GUSTING AT OR JUST OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BACK NW THIS EVENING AFTER COLD
FROPA...REMAINING LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REMAINING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. NW WINDS G25KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN ANY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KT EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. FIRST REGARDING CLOUD
COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. FOR TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED
HIGHS UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
PARTS OF SE CT BASED ON CURRENT 850MB TEMP AND A MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW. DEWPOINTS NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT MIXES DOWN...NOTING FALLING DEWPOINTS AT 850MB AS WELL.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL BE GOOD
AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL LIFT. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND CAPE WILL BE
VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AT A
TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME SPOTS (MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT)...WILL
KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST. THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN ANY SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION DOWN
TO MVFR. TEMPO GROUP PLACED DURING TIMEFRAME OF HIGHEST
CHANCE...GENERALLY 18-22Z WHICH COULD BE A FEW HRS OFF. THE
COVERAGE OF SHRA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. TSRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE ANY TSRA
WOULD FORM...BUT ANY TSRA FORMING COULD ALSO BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS HIGHER THAN FCST.
A WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN ANY TSRA. WINDS
ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REMAINING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT LOWERING MON AFTN-MON EVE.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...MOSTLY VFR. CHC -RA/MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KTS EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE 30 KTS RIGHT AT THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE DACKS AS UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RAPID INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION REMAINING ACROSS THE DACKS.
LATEST IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHICH WAS ADVANCING
INTO THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...AN ELONGATED AND DOUBLE BARREL UPPER LOWS WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY BEING FILLED IN WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS INCREASING. LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES
MODEL OUTPUTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THIS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW.
AS FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER...WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND INCREASING SHOWALTER VALUES...SEEMS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H500 TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S/ AND THAT MAY SUN ANGLE...CHANCE STILL EXISTS WITHIN DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FOR SOME GRAUPAL/SMALL- HAIL AS WE WILL RETAIN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WIND MAGNITUDES ON THE
INCREASE. PER FORECAST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS...WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE PUSHING UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS. PER
COORDINATION...WE WILL WITHHOLD ANY HEADLINES AND MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...A COOL AND DAMP DAY IS SETTING UP WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE DACKS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT...AS THE
THERMAL PROFILES COOL WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING BACK AT OR BELOW
0C...COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAYS
WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. OUR NORMAL HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE TERRAIN AND MID 60S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LOW IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
DEPART OUR REGION DURING MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER...BUT IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A VARIABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. AS SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS ON
MONDAY...THE H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER CLOSE TO 0C. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH 50S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE...MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE SPRING DAY FOR THE REGION WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND A NEAR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PASSING OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME UPPER
20S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING
ALREADY STARTED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ON MONDAY...FROST OR FREEZE
HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND 850 HPA
TEMPS RISING TO AS HIGH AS 6 DEGREES C...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...WED NIGHT MINS WON/T BE AS COOL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OVER THE REGION.
ALONG WITH RISING 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL START TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP BY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP OVER THE AREA
BEFORE THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA
TEMPS OF 10-11 DEGREES C BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/ AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS...ESP IF
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR. MAX TEMPS FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR THURS
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
MID 60S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THURS/FRI NIGHTS AS WELL. AT THIS
POINT...WE EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TO LIMIT THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF WARMING...BUT IF THE REGION WERE TO TRULY WARM
SECTOR...IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY TODAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT...THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT OF A SHOWER DURING THE DAY...ESP FOR KGFL. ALTHOUGH
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SCT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT BY LATER THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY
RAIN SHOWER...AND A TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT
KGFL...WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...VCSH WILL BE
MENTIONED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER NEARBY.
IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GOOD MIXING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KTS
BY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW GUTS AS HIGH AS
30 KTS AT KALB.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...WITH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND BKN-CIGS REMAINING AROUND 5 KFT. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
EARLY THIS WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH BASIN AVERAGE OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ARRIVES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. KCLX REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND AT 5-10 KT.
THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
1. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 9 PM...INITIALIZING WITH
THE 04/22Z OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE.
2. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
3. LOWERED WIND SPEEDS TO CALM WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONGOING FORECASTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN ON
TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED S/SW OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A SYNOPTIC DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW...PINNING THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON...AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL LIKELY
PUSH TO THE BEACHES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER N/NE SC WEDNESDAY...AND THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. THUS...THE SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP EARLIER AND WILL PUSH INLAND. THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON AREA BEACHES TO THE 70S AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION...HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F WILL STILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70F ON
THE BEACHES WILL BE COMMON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND...PUSHING A
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE SLOWED IF DEEP LAYER RIDGING PERSISTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EVEN SO...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 18Z
MODEL AND SHORT TERM RAP MODEL DATA. EXPECT PEAK WINDS OF 10-15
KT...EXCEPT 15 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED S/SW OF THE
WATERS. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO BACK TOWARD THE SW BOTH AFTERNOON. ALSO...04/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE OF SW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH
NIGHT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING MID
TO LATE WEEK. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SHOWER/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR HANCOCK/WORTH/CERRO GORDO COUNTIES. RECENT REPORT OF MIXTURE
IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EXITING FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION ARRIVES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY MAY CREATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR AND WINDS TO REMAIN EASTERLY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHERN SITES WILL SEE LITTLE EXCEPT SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z MON. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
813 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SHOWER/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR HANCOCK/WORTH/CERRO GORDO COUNTIES. RECENT REPORT OF MIXTURE
IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHRA TO AFFECT NORTHERN SITES...KMCW/KALO AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAY...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHRA TO AFFECT NORTHERN SITES...KMCW/KALO AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAY...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
SOME MID CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TOWARD 12Z WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KMCW AND KALO. STILL EXPECT MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF KFOD. WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
BASED ON RADAR AND OBS I HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS ACROSS
W/SW PORTIONS OF CWA INTO EARLY EVE FOR BAND OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WITH CONSIDERABLE T/TD
SPREADS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WAS PROVIDING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY. FOR
THE MOST PART THE REGION WAS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW
BAND OF RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.
THE RAIN WAS COMING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER WHICH WAS CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THE RAIN AND MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING IN A
REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A 120KT H3 JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO
WEAKENS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH BASED RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN
ACROSS THE DVN CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY TO FAR NORTHEAST WITH
THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO THE RAIN SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FGEN
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WHICH THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING WITH TIME.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THINKING
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. H3 JET MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. MID/LOW LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN THAT SHOULD
IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
KEPT ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT SOUTH...A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE
MIDDLE 50S NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WELCOMED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AND ON PCPN
CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCE TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA DRAPED OVER
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A 40KT LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND
PROGGED 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON SPEED OF WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH. CWA TO BE COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER
70S/MIDDLE 80S AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO
FEEL HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLJ TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF JET ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA. LATEST MODELS TRACK THESE STORMS EAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY NEAR
THE CWA. NONETHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THIS BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAKER FORCING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. LATEST
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOME
WITH IT NOT ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS SLOWER FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES WITH FORECAST HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
DURING THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE JET AXIS/STRONG SHEAR
PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR THIS IN ITS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THIS TIME FRAME BY LATER SHIFTS.
REST OF EXTENDED...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS DEW
POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHEAST AND EAST ON SUNDAY AT
AROUND 10 KTS TO 15 KTS. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES
AND A FEW HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE
RIPPLES DOWN ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 70S ARE OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM WHERE THE WINDS STAY UP.
SOME LOCATIONS ON BOTH SIDES WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS SO COULD SEE
SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO DROP.
AS TODAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF WHERE THE FRONT IS
DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST WITH FRONT AND IS THE
COOLEST. OF THE MODELS THAT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH...THE NAM IS CLOSER
TO THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING WELL RIGHT NOW. MOST OF THE
OUTPUT HOW MORE OF THE FORECAST ON THE WARM SIDE...AND WILL BE
GOING THAT DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHEAST CORNER LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO REFER
TO THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR TOMORROWS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LONGWAVE
TROUGH.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY WITH COOLING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERING. MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY SHOULD POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FOG BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS.
FUEL STATUS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH GREEN-UP ONGOING ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DUE TO DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. THE DRYLINE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST DURING PERIODS OF BEST
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY SO BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BUT DO NOT THINK A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS LIKELY AT
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPORADIC SO NOT EVERYBODY WILL
RECEIVE A NEEDED RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA SEPARATES A HOT DRY AIR MASS
TO THE WEST AND A WARM SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO THE EAST.
KMCK WILL LIE NEAR OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN 10
PERCENT...OF FOG FORMING AROUND SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KMCK TAF ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LIKE TODAY...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEFINITELY REACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON FUEL STATUS AND ON THE WINDS. WHAT DATA CAN BE
FOUND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE ARE IN GREEN-UP BUT THAT MAY BE MOSTLY
FOR GROWING CROPS. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY
AND REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT
WIND SPEEDS. IF THE STRONGER NAM WINDS WORK OUT...THEN SOME
LOCATION IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA COULD REACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
ISSUE A WATCH WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT NEEDING TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MAY
4. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY.
GOODLAND.....91 IN 2012
MCCOOK.......94 IN 2012
BURLINGTON...92 IN 1963
HILL CITY....93 IN 2012
COLBY........92 IN 1924
TRIBUNE......94 IN 1952
YUMA.........89 IN 1962
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
507 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TROUGH THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL MORE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY THE LATEST RADAR LOOP.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GRADIENT BETWEEN MAXES/MINS ON THE
THETA E ANALYSIS. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWED SOME
STRIKES ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION SOUTH OF THE BANGOR AREA OVER
THE LAST HR(20Z), BUT SINCE THEN ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY W/ELEVATED CAPES IN THIS REGION. KEPT THE MENTION OF
TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MAINE COAST THIS EVENING
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY. AREA OF THUNDER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO WILL PUT IN
AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. FOR POPS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12... GFS40...SREF AND
ECMWF. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GENERATED FROM BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL BASED ON
LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE SUPPER
BLEND. QPF GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM12... GFS40 AND
ECMWF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LLVL MOISTURE LEFT OVR FROM THE DEPARTING ERN MARITIMES SFC/UPPER
LVL LOW PRES SYS WILL REMAIN MSLY IN THE FORM OF CLDNSS OVR THE N
PTN OF THE FA...WITH ANY EVE SHWRS MSLY OVR THE NW. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH WRLY DOWNSLOPE FOR THE S HLF OF THE FA FOR PARTIAL CLRG
LATE MON NGT.
ANY CLRG FOR SRN PTNS OF THE FA WILL BE SHORT LIVED GOING INTO TUE
AS AN E...W UPPER TROF N OF OUR REGION SWINGS SWRD INTO THE FA BY
TUE AFTN...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TO MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND CAUSING SCT SHWRS BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE N...WHICH WILL WORK
SWRD INTO SRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. OVERALL...BASIN WIDE 6
HRLY QPFS WILL BE LGT...LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT LCLZD RNFL OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE AFTN...SPCLY CNTRL AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN.
ONCE THIS UPPER TROF PIVOTS SE OF THE REGION TUE EVE...MORE
GENERAL CLRG SHOULD OCCUR FOR ALL OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT...
WITH WED LOOKING MUCH DRIER...WITH THE ONLY SLGT CHC OF AFTN SHWRS
OVR ERN PTNS OF THE REGION AS A VERY WEAK S/WV ALF FROM CNTRL QB
MOVES ESE OVR NRN/ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVGS FOR THIS TM OF SPRING
DUE TO MORE CLD AND SHWR CVRG COMPARED TO WED...WHICH SHOULD SEE
HI TEMPS RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OVRNGT LOWS BOTH MON
NGT AND TUE NGT WILL MSLY BE ABV FZG FOR ALL OF THE REGION DUE TO
CLD CVR AND SFC DWPTS FCST TO BE AOA FZG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID DAY
FRIDAY. A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD... WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW COAST OF MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. BY SAT EVNG THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF MOVE THE COLD FRONT EAST OF MAINE AND BUILDS
HIGHER PRESSURE INTO WRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES A NEW LOW INTO THE
SW COAST...SLOWING THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...KEEPING IT ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE INTO SUN MRNG. THE GFS MOVES THE NEW LOW THROUGH
MAINE...AND BEGINS TO BUILD HIGHER PRESSURE...THE ECMWF MOVES A
NEW LOW INTO NRN NY...SHIFTS THE HIGH TO THE EAST...AND MOVES A
WARM FRONT INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MAINE SUN EVNG...WITH A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING N/S FROM WEST OF JAMES BAY TO ERN TX...WITH
SEVERAL MINOR LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO
NRN NH/WRN ME BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS TO THE SE
COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS MOVES THE NEW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ERN NH/WRN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS MAINE.
SO THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID PORTIONS OF
THE EXTENDED...THEN THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFER...GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE MID POINT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND AND 30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR TONIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS...AND ATTMS VSBYS WITH BKN-OVC SC
CLD CVR AND OCNL SHWRS CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES MON
NGT THRU TUE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUE NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN SHOULD CONT WED THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE SREF AND THE GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS. FOR WAVES: CURRENT WNA/4 WIND TOO STRONG IN GULF OF MAINE
SO HAVE USED THE SWAN/NAM TO POPULATE GRIDS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM
GENERATED IN SOUTHERLY FETCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH 3 FEET/8
SECONDS... HOWEVER EXPECT THIS GROUP TO STAY BELOW SCA. FETCH
DIRECTION SHIFTS OFF-SHORE EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH LIMITED FETCH
DISTANCE WAVE HEIGHTS CLOSE TO COAST MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS LOOK TO BE NEEDED FOR OUR MZS...WITH WINDS
MSLY BLO 15 KTS...AND WVS MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS050-051
AND 2 FT OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052. USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND
FOR WINDS AND WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN
DOMINATE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z... NWLY JET IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NARROW BAND OF
RAIN PERSISTING NW TO SE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA (FROM
CUMBERLAND TO DC TO SALISBURY MD). THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE HRRR HAS BEEN ON TOP OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND THE 22Z RUN PROGS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT/NEW BANDING
SOUTH (PERHAPS NORTH- CENTRAL VIRGINIA) TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT
THAT DRIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT BACK
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A DRY TUESDAY.
CLOUDS PERSIST TONIGHT UNDER THE JET...MIN TEMPS MID 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50F URBAN/NEAR SHORE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
NWLY FLOW AND MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE ONE UPPER WAVE IS SLIDING FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...
THE LONG ARM OF AN OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONT WILL BE DRIFTING IN FROM
UPPER MIDWEST. THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT ON TUE NIGHT/WED MRNG
WILL TAKE DEWPOINTS ON A SLOW/STEADY RISE OVERNIGHT - KEEPING OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED MAINLY THE U40S/L50S. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE
INCOMING BOUNDARY WILL BE LIGHT/SCATTERED...STRETCHING ALL THE WAY
BACK TO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY BUMPED OUT OF THE WAY WHILE THIS
FEATURE TREKS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON
WED...BUILDING UP A LIGHT SELY ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS - ESPEC OVER THE NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. NRN
MD MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE M60S...WHILE LOCALES IN THE N CNTRL VA
PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY PEAK JUST ABOVE THE 70F MARK. THIS CONTRAST
WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE IN THE SFC DEWPOINTS W/ 50S OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE REGION AND A DRIER M-U30S RANGE FOR NERN MD...OWING TO
THE DRIER/COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
THE WARMTH RETURNS ON THU...AFTER A CLOUDY/COOL START. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - IN THE L-M50S - SINCE
THE BUILD OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE OCCURRED LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.
THE INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE M-U50S/SOME L60S WILL
ACTUALLY BRING SOME HUMIDITY TO THE AIR ON THU AFTN. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A STEADY SWLY BREEZE WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB AT A GOOD PACE
INTO THE L-M80S BY MID AFTN. THE LEFTOVER PARTS OF THE WARM FRONT
FROM WED WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND W/ SOME RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER TOWARD NERN MD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR
AS WARM AND HUMID PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE PARENT LOW THAT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL
BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH
IT INITIALLY DEVELOPED UNDER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL
STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL US SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE
STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS/OUT OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK.
OVERALL THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT. VARIATION
IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON RAIN
CHANCES LOCALLY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
FRONT ENDS UP STALLING FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA MAY WELL END UP BEING DRY TO START THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60 SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN FROM KMRB TO KIAD TO KDCA TO JUST NORTH OF
KNHK WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. FURTHER RAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH TOWARD KCHO LATE THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH DRY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION ON WED - W/ A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY JUST
EXPECTING SOME PASSING MID CLOUD DECKS AND A FEW RAIN DROPS...BUT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A CLOUDY START TO
THU...BUT CLEARING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
THE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE
MIDDLE OF WEEK...W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ON WED - BUT THEN ONLY A WEAK NLY SURGE TUE NIGHT AND SOME
SLY CHANNELING WED/WED NIGHT FOR MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS
THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI
PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA
MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER.
BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED
PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS
WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE
SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE
HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS...
EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT
EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF
IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE
RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER
TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL
ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND
THE SFC LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE SET UP ALONG THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THROUGH NV AND S CA. CLOSER TO HOME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S...UP THROUGH MANITOBA AND QUEBEC.
THE INITIAL GLANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE NW CORNER OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AS INCREASED WAA SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
850MB TEMPS AVERAGING 2C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO AN AVG 5C BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ON SSE WINDS. DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM IWD TO
ONTONAGON SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT...THAT IS UNLESS
ISOTROPIC LIFT/WWA RAIN SHOWERS COME IN AS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE SET UP AROUND NE/KS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BASICALLY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES.
MUCH OF THE NE PROGRESS OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING FROM NE TO SW MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE
TO THE EJECTING 500MB TROUGH SLIDING TO THE NE ND AREA.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF RAIN AT LEAST AT
THIS TIME...BUT WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WITH E-SE SFC
WINDS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WITH LATEST FCST
PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE FCST MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
FOR THE INCLUSION OF TS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVE THE ELEVATED NATURE.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE STACKED SFC-500MB BY 12Z FRIDAY
OVER MN. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWED MORE RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVED ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY AND TO JAMES
BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY...MORE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...WITH A
POTENT SECONDARY FRONT SWINGING IN AND FINALLY CHANGING THE NEAR SFC
WINDS TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH
AGREEMENT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE 00-06Z FRI OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
DRY FOR NOW...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR DAYS
6/SUNDAY AND 7/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOW SOMEWHERE
TO OUR W AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE
500MB LOW STILL STUCK ACROSS CANADA /NEAR N SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA/. THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER N
CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED
INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER
ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU
SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION HAS
CONTINUED IS STEADY DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...GOING BELOW
ADVISORY STAGE.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE
LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AROUND 8
AM SUNDAY STILL AT PAINESDALE...AND THE 16IN OF SNOW DEPTH AT HERMAN
AROUND 8 AM MONDAY.
THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE
STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER.
EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH
LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
Frontal boundary remains stalled along I-70 corridor. So main
forecast issues in the short term are the winds and low temps for
tonight. East winds to prevail north of front, while south winds to
expected over southern MO and far southern IL. Some mid and high
clouds north of front, but no precipitation expected as low and mid
levels remain rather dry. Towards daybreak frontal boundary will
begin to slowly move to the north as a warm front. As for low temps,
will range from the upper 40s far north to the upper 50s over
central and southern MO. Could see a pocket of colder temps over
eastern Ozarks, so lowered temps a bit there.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
The main issue for at least the next several days will be the
location of the east-west quasi-stationary front and resultant
impact on temperatures. Guidance is good agreement moving the
boundary northward on Monday morning to around a Moberly-Matoon
line by early afternoon. While there will be a few more clouds
around on Monday, the character of the air mass and low level flow
regime is not expected to change. Thus it appears highs in the 80s
to lower 90s will be the norm within the warm sector, and in the
70s to the north of the front. The front then sags south again on
Monday night as surface high pressure builds southeastward from
the Great Lakes region. This southward position doesn`t appear to
last long however as the front is forecast to retreat northward
again on Tuesday, draped across northern MO into central IL by
late afternoon and exiting the CWA by late evening. This northward
retreat is in response to falling pressures across the Plains and
the movement of an initial low pressure wave into eastern Nebraska.
The entire region will be well within the warm sector on Wednesday
with highs area-wide in the 80s. The models have been overforecasting
the surface dew points recently and this trend will persist for the
next several days as high pressure in the northern Gulf is
inhibiting southerly return flow. The combination of warm temps
aloft and limited low level moisture will result in an air mass
capped to surface-based convection through Wednesday. I think
Wednesday night will remain quiet and mild with a general increase
in clouds.
Things begin to change on Thursday with shower and thunderstorm
chances ramping up, especially Thursday night into Friday. We should
see a more robust return of low level moisture as the Gulf opens
up, and the western U.S. upper trof ejects northeastward across
the Rockies and Plains into the upper MS valley sending a cold
front into the area Thursday night. This front will temporarily
stall across portions of southern MO and southern IL late Friday
into Friday night, before lifting back northward on Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The
primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a
stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region
over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side
of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to
southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is
very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture.
Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest
winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when
surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models
also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but
the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer
compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for
KCOU and KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and
high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the
location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on
the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the
south side of the front).
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
128 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
SPAWNED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD THIS
MORNING. THE RAP SHOWS THIS FORCING MECHANISM MOVING QUICKLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THE RAP AND NAM GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS PINE RIDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS DRY AS NEITHER
MODEL IS GENERATING AND QPF IN THAT AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY SUPPORTING THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT THE NAM AND ECM ONLY SHOW 85 PERCENT RH
IN THE 500M AGL LEVEL VS THE GFS AROUND 98 PERCENT. THE BEST
APPROACH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL DATA. A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON TIME ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FROM A LOW IN S CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW IN KANSAS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL MIX MID AND UPPER TEENS 850 MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LL JET TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT SOME BUILDING SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND HAVE CONCERNS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT DEVELOP
THIS FAR SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE. MILD LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INITIATE ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW...SO POPS CONFINED TO THE
NW ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW STRENGTHEN OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS NEB. TIMING STILL OFF A LITTLE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GEM HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT INTO SW AND S CENTRAL NEB. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THE EC DRAWS DOWN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
FAR NW NEB...COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY A MIX. CURRENT THOUGH IS
THE TEMPS TO NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH INTO THE MID 30S FOR ANY MIX AT
THIS POINT AND NO MENTION OF SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S ON WED AND 50S AND 60S
FOR THURS.
BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS EAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND AND A WARM UP IS EXPECTED. AFTER 60S
ON FRIDAY...MORE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. A LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONAL TO NW WEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE PACIFIC AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS...WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTER AIR WEST INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AS MOISTURE POOLS TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SCATTERED DECK
AT 1000FT AT KLBF TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS. MODELS
ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS...SO
WASN/T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BROKEN OR OVERCAST CEILING AT
THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
SPAWNED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD THIS
MORNING. THE RAP SHOWS THIS FORCING MECHANISM MOVING QUICKLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THE RAP AND NAM GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS PINE RIDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS DRY AS NEITHER
MODEL IS GENERATING AND QPF IN THAT AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY SUPPORTING THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT THE NAM AND ECM ONLY SHOW 85 PERCENT RH
IN THE 500M AGL LEVEL VS THE GFS AROUND 98 PERCENT. THE BEST
APPROACH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL DATA. A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON TIME ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FROM A LOW IN S CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW IN KANSAS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL MIX MID AND UPPER TEENS 850 MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LL JET TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT SOME BUILDING SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND HAVE CONCERNS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT DEVELOP
THIS FAR SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE. MILD LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INITIATE ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW...SO POPS CONFINED TO THE
NW ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW STRENGTHEN OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS NEB. TIMING STILL OFF A LITTLE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GEM HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT INTO SW AND S CENTRAL NEB. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THE EC DRAWS DOWN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
FAR NW NEB...COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY A MIX. CURRENT THOUGH IS
THE TEMPS TO NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH INTO THE MID 30S FOR ANY MIX AT
THIS POINT AND NO MENTION OF SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S ON WED AND 50S AND 60S
FOR THURS.
BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS EAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND AND A WARM UP IS EXPECTED. AFTER 60S
ON FRIDAY...MORE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. A LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONAL TO NW WEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE PACIFIC AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS TONIGHT BUT THIS HAS BEEN SET
ASIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO REASONABLY
SOLID AGREEMENT A FORECAST CAN BE MADE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
SPAWNED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD THIS
MORNING. THE RAP SHOWS THIS FORCING MECHANISM MOVING QUICKLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THE RAP AND NAM GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS PINE RIDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS DRY AS NEITHER
MODEL IS GENERATING AND QPF IN THAT AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY SUPPORTING THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT THE NAM AND ECM ONLY SHOW 85 PERCENT RH
IN THE 500M AGL LEVEL VS THE GFS AROUND 98 PERCENT. THE BEST
APPROACH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL DATA. A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON TIME ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FROM A LOW IN S CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW IN KANSAS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL MIX MID AND UPPER TEENS 850 MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LL JET TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT SOME BUILDING SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND HAVE CONCERNS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT DEVELOP
THIS FAR SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE. MILD LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INITIATE ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW...SO POPS CONFINED TO THE
NW ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW STRENGTHEN OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS NEB. TIMING STILL OFF A LITTLE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GEM HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT INTO SW AND S CENTRAL NEB. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THE EC DRAWS DOWN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
FAR NW NEB...COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY A MIX. CURRENT THOUGH IS
THE TEMPS TO NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH INTO THE MID 30S FOR ANY MIX AT
THIS POINT AND NO MENTION OF SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S ON WED AND 50S AND 60S
FOR THURS.
BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS EAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND AND A WARM UP IS EXPECTED. AFTER 60S
ON FRIDAY...MORE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. A LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONAL TO NW WEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE PACIFIC AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. EAST WIND IN THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FOG/MIST IN THE WEST SOUTH AND WEST OF IEN. WIND IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE 070-100 AT 10-14KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...THEN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALSO TUESDAY.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 100M+ HT FALLS. A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MONTANA TOWARD ARIZONA. CLOSED H5 LOW
PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER MANITOBA WITH IT/S TROF STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS MID
LEVEL TROF HAS RESULTED IN A PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO SOUTH OF
MANHATTAN KS TOWARD EMPORIA AND SOUTH OF HAYS KS. THERE WAS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WAS
NOTED AT THE MID LEVELS AND ALSO AT H85 ACROSS WESTERN SD AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FROM SD INTO NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE THESE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK.
WARMER AIR WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING H85 WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE H85 WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES AS WELL NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDERS. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ECHOES ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND 4KM WRF HAVE PRECIP
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...THE NAM BETWEEN 06Z-
09...AND THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE ONLY MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A BRISK EAST SURFACE FLOW. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DUE TO
THE FRONT NEARBY. THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED...THUS HAVE LEFT DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AGAIN...THERE
MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND A WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
DRY...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES WED.
TRENDED WITH THE EC THAT HAS THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST ARE COMPARED TO THE COOLER GFS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
REGION...A SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVING
TO THE PLAINS. NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...HOWEVER FRONTAL PLACEMENT FOR THURSDAY
WILL BE A KEY FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ENERGY MAY LAG AND MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW FRI/SAT ARE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY CEILINGS
ABOVE 9000 FEET. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10 KNOTS MID TO
LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1053 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO MID-WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF WARMTH BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...THE STRONG/SVR? CELL THAT CROSSED THE VA-
NC BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DIVING SE-WARD HAD
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER REACHING RDU.
EVEN AFTER PUSHING THRU THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...THE
STABILITY BEHIND THE RW BNDRY NEGATED ITS RE-FIRING. EARLIER HOURLY
RUNS OF THE HRRR LEADING UP TO 00Z-03Z REMAINED QUITE PERSISTENT
IN RE-FIRING THIS CELL. THE UPDATE WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE
LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THIS CELL AND THE CLOUDS FROM THE ISOLATED
NORTHERN CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN 1/5TH OF THE ILM CWA. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED OVERNITE LOWS
TO THE HIGHER SIDE...GIVEN THE EARLIER STALLED SFC FRONT NOW
MEANDERING BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNITE. THE SLOWLY DECAYING
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY AND A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LIFTING FRONT SHOULD KEEP WINDS ACTIVE IN THE 5 TO
OCCASIONALLY 10 MPH RANGE. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL
DOMINATE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRUOUT THE NIGHT AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS AGAIN WILL BE
THE PROBLEM CHILD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...LITTLE TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST THIS AFTN
AND OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BE LESS OF A FACTOR IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS STRAIGHT FORWARD AS WELL WITH
THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOWING SUPERIOR VERIFICATION THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE
MIXED...FIVE MPH OR LESS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...OVERALL FAIR AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUE/WED AS HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE GULF STATES AMPLIFIES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AIR-MASS ABOVE 10 KFT IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ONE COMPLICATION...A SLOWLY LIFTING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING UPPER DOME
OF WARMTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR OUR NE
ZONES AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WED.
NO TSTMS WERE INCLUDED SINCE ALOFT IT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED THIS
PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS...AND MORE FAVORED NORTH OF THE
AREA...MAY BE GUIDED ESE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING BLADEN OR PENDER
COUNTIES. THESE MENTIONABLE POP VALUES REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ADVERTISE SHOWERS ONLY.
LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL GOVERN THE DIFFERENCES IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HOTTEST AS WEST
FLOW IS SEEN OFF THE SURFACE...KEEPING ANY COOLING MARINE EFFECTS
FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST. WHEREAS BY WED LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT...WHILE SUPPORTING A
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOCUSING OUR NE
ZONES. HENCE MAXIMUMS 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY CAN
BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...PERFECT SETUP FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WHILE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BOTH WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
FAVOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. ADDITIONALLY
THE WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED MAINLY BY DAY. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER SOME
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES CROP UP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. MODELS TEND TO BE
TOO QUICK IN SUCH A SETUP AND FEEL THAT POPS...WHICH WILL REMAIN
LOW...ARE BEST RELEGATED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCRE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING INTO KILM AS
WELL. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 8
KTS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ALLUDING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCRE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT TEMPO IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POSSIBLE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY WEST
WINDS AOB 12 KTS...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...QUITE ACTIVE NEAR SHORE WINDS COMPLEMENTS
FROM THE WELL INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE TEMPORARILY STALLED FRONT. THIS HAS MADE WINDS BOTH DIRECTIONS
AND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO NOWCAST AND FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING LOOKING AT SE TO S 10 TO 15G20 KT WINDS
...WITH S TO SW 10-15G20 KT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LIFTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DURING THE PREDAWN TUE HOURS....LOOKING AT S TO
SW 10-15G20 KT RANGE IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SW-W 10-15G20 KT SOUTH OF THE NC-SC
BORDER. THE SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED EITHER SIDE OF
THE NORTHWARD LIFTING/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HENCE THE
ACTIVE SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL AGAIN BE GOVERNED BY SHORT
PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES...IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS RESERVED NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. PERIODS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY BISECTED
AS NORTH CAROLINA WATERS REMAIN UNDER A NE FLOW WHILE A WESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW MIXING OUT
TO BECOME CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THIS FLOW
WITH 2-3 FEET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
NEEDED WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS BOTH TUE/WED. SEA BREEZE
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. CHANGEABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERALL SINCE A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAGUE MAINLY THE NC WATERS. SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET BOTH DAYS IN A MIX OF MODERATE CHOP AND WEAK LONGER
PERIOD SE WAVES OF 1.5 FEET. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE NC COAST WED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION PAIRED
WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
VERY LIGHT LOCALLY. WITH ALL OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEING
CHANNELED INTO THE BAHAMAS SEAS WILL BE SMALL AS THE DIMINUTIVE
WIND WAVE DOMINATES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFT EASTWARD. LOWERING PRESSURES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TIGHTEN THE COASTAL GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR A CATEGORY INC IN WINDS
AND AN ADDED FOOT TO THE SEAS FCST COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
844 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO MID-WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF WARMTH BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED
INLAND NEARLY THRU THE ENTIRE ILM NC CWA. LOOKING AT THE RAX...MHX
AND LTX 88D RADARS...THE STRONG/SVR? CELL THAT CROSSED THE VA-NC
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DIVING SE-WARD HAS
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. EVEN AFTER PUSHING THRU THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY...THE STABILITY BEHIND THE RW BNDRY NEGATED ITS RE-FIRING.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR LEADING UP TO THIS POINT REMAINED QUITE
PERSISTENT IN RE-FIRING THIS CELL. THE UPDATE WILL CONCENTRATE ON
THE LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THIS CELL AND THE ISOLATED NORTHERN
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN
1/5TH OF THE ILM CWA. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED OVERNITE LOWS TO THE
HIGHER SIDE...GIVEN THE STALLED SFC FRONT MEANDERING BACK TO THE
NORTH OVERNITE. THE SLOWLY DECAYING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY AND A
SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG IN THE VICINITY OF THE LIFTING FRONT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS ACTIVE IN THE 5 TO OCCASIONALLY 10 MPH
RANGE. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRUOUT THE NIGHT AS THE 1 MESOSCALE
FEATURE GIVES WAY TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS
AGAIN WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...LITTLE TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST THIS AFTN
AND OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BE LESS OF A FACTOR IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS STRAIGHT FORWARD AS WELL WITH
THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOWING SUPERIOR VERIFICATION THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE
MIXED...FIVE MPH OR LESS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...OVERALL FAIR AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUE/WED AS HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE GULF STATES AMPLIFIES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AIR-MASS ABOVE 10 KFT IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ONE COMPLICATION...A SLOWLY LIFTING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING UPPER DOME
OF WARMTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR OUR NE
ZONES AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WED.
NO TSTMS WERE INCLUDED SINCE ALOFT IT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED THIS
PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS...AND MORE FAVORED NORTH OF THE
AREA...MAY BE GUIDED ESE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING BLADEN OR PENDER
COUNTIES. THESE MENTIONABLE POP VALUES REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ADVERTISE SHOWERS ONLY.
LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL GOVERN THE DIFFERENCES IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HOTTEST AS WEST
FLOW IS SEEN OFF THE SURFACE...KEEPING ANY COOLING MARINE EFFECTS
FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST. WHEREAS BY WED LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT...WHILE SUPPORTING A
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOCUSING OUR NE
ZONES. HENCE MAXIMUMS 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY CAN
BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...PERFECT SETUP FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WHILE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BOTH WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
FAVOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. ADDITIONALLY
THE WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED MAINLY BY DAY. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER SOME
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES CROP UP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. MODELS TEND TO BE
TOO QUICK IN SUCH A SETUP AND FEEL THAT POPS...WHICH WILL REMAIN
LOW...ARE BEST RELEGATED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCRE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING INTO KILM AS
WELL. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 8
KTS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ALLUDING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCRE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT TEMPO IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POSSIBLE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY WEST
WINDS AOB 12 KTS...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...QUITE ACTIVE NEAR SHORE WINDS COMPLEMENTS
FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
TEMPORARILY STALLED FRONT. THIS HAS MADE WINDS BOTH DIRECTIONS AND
SPEEDS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO NOWCAST AND FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING LOOKING AT E TO SE 10 TO 15G20 KT WINDS
NEARSHORE...E TO SE VEERING TO THE S 10-15 KT 10-20 NM OUT.
OVERALL...WINDS TO VEER THRU THE SE TO S LATE THIS EVENING...AND
S TO SW DURING THE PREDAWN TUE HOURS. SPEEDS IN THE 10-15G20 KT
RANGE AS THE SFC PG REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED EITHER SIDE OF THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL AGAIN BE GOVERNED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES...IN THE
3 TO 5 SECOND RANGE. HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT...WITH
THE 4 FOOTERS RESERVED NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY BISECTED
AS NORTH CAROLINA WATERS REMAIN UNDER A NE FLOW WHILE A WESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW MIXING OUT
TO BECOME CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THIS FLOW
WITH 2-3 FEET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
NEEDED WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS BOTH TUE/WED. SEA BREEZE
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. CHANGEABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERALL SINCE A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAGUE MAINLY THE NC WATERS. SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET BOTH DAYS IN A MIX OF MODERATE CHOP AND WEAK LONGER
PERIOD SE WAVES OF 1.5 FEET. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE NC COAST WED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION PAIRED
WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
VERY LIGHT LOCALLY. WITH ALL OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEING
CHANNELED INTO THE BAHAMAS SEAS WILL BE SMALL AS THE DIMINUTIVE
WIND WAVE DOMINATES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFT EASTWARD. LOWERING PRESSURES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TIGHTEN THE COASTAL GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR A CATEGORY INC IN WINDS
AND AN ADDED FOOT TO THE SEAS FCST COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
827 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO MID-WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF WARMTH BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED
INLAND NEARLY THRU THE ENTIRE ILM NC CWA. LOOKING AT THE RAX...MHX
AND LTX 88D RADARS...THE STRONG/SVR? CELL THAT CROSSED THE VA-NC
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DIVING SE-WARD HAS
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. EVEN AFTER PUSHING THRU THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY...THE STABILITY BEHIND THE RW BNDRY NEGATED ITS RE-FIRING.
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR LEADING UP TO THIS POINT REMAINED QUITE
PERSISTENT IN RE-FIRING THIS CELL. THE UPDATE WILL CONCENTRATE ON
THE LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THIS CELL AND THE ISOLATED NORTHERN
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN
1/5TH OF THE ILM CWA. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED OVERNITE LOWS TO THE
HIGHER SIDE...GIVEN THE STALLED SFC FRONT MEANDERING BACK TO THE
NORTH OVERNITE. THE SLOWLY DECAYING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY AND A
SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG IN THE VICINITY OF THE LIFTING FRONT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS ACTIVE IN THE 5 TO OCCASIONALLY 10 MPH
RANGE. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRUOUT THE NIGHT AS THE 1 MESOSCALE
FEATURE GIVES WAY TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS
AGAIN WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...LITTLE TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST THIS AFTN
AND OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BE LESS OF A FACTOR IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS STRAIGHT FORWARD AS WELL WITH
THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOWING SUPERIOR VERIFICATION THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE
MIXED...FIVE MPH OR LESS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...OVERALL FAIR AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUE/WED AS HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE GULF STATES AMPLIFIES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AIR-MASS ABOVE 10 KFT IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ONE COMPLICATION...A SLOWLY LIFTING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING UPPER DOME
OF WARMTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR OUR NE
ZONES AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WED.
NO TSTMS WERE INCLUDED SINCE ALOFT IT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED THIS
PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS...AND MORE FAVORED NORTH OF THE
AREA...MAY BE GUIDED ESE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING BLADEN OR PENDER
COUNTIES. THESE MENTIONABLE POP VALUES REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ADVERTISE SHOWERS ONLY.
LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL GOVERN THE DIFFERENCES IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HOTTEST AS WEST
FLOW IS SEEN OFF THE SURFACE...KEEPING ANY COOLING MARINE EFFECTS
FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST. WHEREAS BY WED LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT...WHILE SUPPORTING A
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOCUSING OUR NE
ZONES. HENCE MAXIMUMS 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY CAN
BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...PERFECT SETUP FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WHILE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BOTH WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
FAVOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. ADDITIONALLY
THE WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED MAINLY BY DAY. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER SOME
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES CROP UP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. MODELS TEND TO BE
TOO QUICK IN SUCH A SETUP AND FEEL THAT POPS...WHICH WILL REMAIN
LOW...ARE BEST RELEGATED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCRE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING INTO KILM AS
WELL. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 8
KTS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ALLUDING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCRE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT TEMPO IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POSSIBLE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY WEST
WINDS AOB 12 KTS...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ESSENTIALLY BISECTED
AS NORTH CAROLINA WATERS REMAIN UNDER A NE FLOW WHILE A WESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW MIXING OUT
TO BECOME CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THIS FLOW
WITH 2-3 FEET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
NEEDED WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS BOTH TUE/WED. SEA BREEZE
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. CHANGEABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERALL SINCE A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAGUE MAINLY THE NC WATERS. SEAS
2 TO 3 FEET BOTH DAYS IN A MIX OF MODERATE CHOP AND WEAK LONGER
PERIOD SE WAVES OF 1.5 FEET. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE NC COAST WED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION PAIRED WITH
A WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS VERY
LIGHT LOCALLY. WITH ALL OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL BEING CHANNELED
INTO THE BAHAMAS SEAS WILL BE SMALL AS THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE
DOMINATES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT
EASTWARD. LOWERING PRESSURES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TIGHTEN THE
COASTAL GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR A CATEGORY INC IN WINDS AND AN ADDED
FOOT TO THE SEAS FCST COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
109 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT EARLY MAY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 2500-10000
FOOT LAYER IS BEING PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS LAYER IS BONE-DRY AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH (AND BEYOND) DAYBREAK. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL HAVE 3-6 MPH
WINDS THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS: STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST HAVE GUSTED OVER 20 MPH AT OCEAN CREST
PIER AND ON BALD HEAD ISLAND WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MARINE
EFFECT SHOULD WANE GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ALSO...WINDS HAVE BECOME DEAD CALM AT
THE LBT AIRPORT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT 1
AM. UNLESS WINDS "RECOUPLE" HERE WE COULD SEE UPPER 40S BY MORNING!
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CONTINUES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY MONDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE 1200 UTC GFS IS A
LITTLE DRIER WITH ANY ACTIVITY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT I WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THIS IS
LIKELY WAIVER BACK AND FORTH. THIS LEAVES ESSENTIALLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RATHER WARM ONE AT THAT. WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW PREVAILING FROM ABOUT 850MB AND ABOVE THE WARMER NAM/MET
NUMBERS SHOULD WORK BETTER. THIS LEADS TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
SUNDAY AND EVEN WARMER MONDAY...POSSIBLY ECLIPSING 90 EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODIFY FROM AROUND 60 MONDAY
MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...TOUGH CALL ON WHERE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH MAIN IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET QUITE WARM WHILE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TO ITS NORTH BOTH AS A FUNCTION OF A
LITTLE CAA AND SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
TO REMAIN CONFINED NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT WHICH WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY TAKE A DIP BACK TO SEASONABLE AREA-
WIDE ON WED AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS...BUT IT BOTH WEAKENS AND LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO BRING A LATE
WEEK RETURN OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COASTLINE TO KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
TO OUR WEST PRECLUDING ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSION...BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG ISSUES
THROUGH DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AS NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS
EARLY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE
INCREASING CIRRUS AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
AND STALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS WEEK...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ALONG WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST JET OF STRONGER WINDS IS
SHOWING UP ON MULTIPLE MESONET AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. WIND GUSTS AT BOTH OCEAN CREST PIER AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND HAVE APPROACHED 20 KNOTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS JET OF STRONGER WINDS
QUITE WELL...AND THE 00Z HRRR MODEL WAS USED TO REDRAW WIND
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 10 HOURS.
BASED ON LOCAL BUOY WAVE OBSERVATIONS I HAVE INCREASED NEAR-TERM SEA
HEIGHT FORECASTS BY HALF A FOOT EAST OF CAPE FEAR...WITH LESSER
CHANGES BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER DEFINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING. FINALLY...WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL MOSTLY HOVER IN A NARROW RANGE OF 2-3 FEET WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND WIND SHIFT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND MAY VERY WELL END UP BISECTING THE FORECAST ZONES
NORTH TO SOUTH. A N TO NE WIND WILL OVERSPREAD ANY REGIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FROPA WHILE SRN ZONES LIKELY KEEP A LIGHT SWRLY FLOW.
WIND AND SEAS BOTH MINIMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
NO REAL SWELL COMPONENT. THE FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES SHOULD SEE THE POST
FRONTAL NRLY WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN SPEED OF
JUST A FEW KT. WAVE FACES MAY STEEPEN SLIGHTLY BUT PREDOMINANT PD
PROBABLY DOESN`T CHANGE. WEAKENING FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LIGHT SWLY
FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON POPS BASED ON HRRR/RAP OUTPUT. ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WILL
LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW. WEATHER CAMERAS FROM RAY...PORTAL AND CARPIO
INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOK WILL BE OVER THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL...ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO THE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY AREAS...PREVIOUS
INSOLATION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. WITH
THE BACK EDGE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...THINK 1 TO 2
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE THE EXTENT TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND
CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS
NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE
INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AFTER 06 UTC.
FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH
DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4
INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN
PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KMOT WILL REMAIN IN MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS
WITH RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND
CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS
NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE
INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AFTER 06 UTC.
FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH
DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4
INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN
PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KMOT WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS
AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM KMBX (MINOT...ND) IS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS SOURIS RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER
GROUND TRUTH AS FAR AS PRECIP REPORTS IS FURTHER WEST...ROUGHLY
ALONG A WILLISTON TO ESTEVAN (SASK) LINE. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH A
RUC/NAM SOLUTION...PRIMARILY USING RUC AS GUIDANCE THROUGH 09Z
THEN TRENDING TOWARD NAM FOR MONDAY.
TONIGHT...A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
AND INTO W CNTRL MN TONIGHT. WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H700 FG
FORCING WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AS THE VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CIGS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 4K FT IN
PORTIONS OF NW ND...GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO
THE SFC. OVERALL...HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR A BIT BULLISH ON
MOISTURE AND EXPECTING ONLY TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OVER DVL
BASIN. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THIS REGION WITH LIKELIES IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AS
ACTIVITY GETS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING. BY 12Z...NAM SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
MAJORITY OF AREA AND DRYING THINGS UP SHORTLY AFT 12Z.
AGAIN...HAVE USED RUC AS GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY POPS THROUGH 09Z WITH
NAM FOR THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...THEN DRY ON MONDAY. ONE CAVEAT...RUC
DOES HOLD ON TO SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS AREA (MORE IN LINE WITH NAM).
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S AND DID MENTION SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IF THERE IS A CHANGE OVER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF AREA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INCREASED SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMP TO CLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AND SW FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING AND
EJECTING OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER WRN DAKOTAS TUE MORNING. SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN
DAKOTAS. 12Z GFS SHOWING INCREASING H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO CNTRL
DAKOTAS...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND ONE INCH BY 18Z. GFS ALSO
SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORMING MID DAY TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELIES IN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...WITH NAM FOCUSING ON DVL BASIN...WHICH IS
WHERE I WILL LIMIT LIKELIES FOR TUE AFTN. CURRENT QPF VALUES
APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND...BUT PLENTY
OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS.
WED...INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO EAST DURING DAY WED...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY UP...HOWEVER MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRYING
OUT THE DVL LAKE BASIN...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES RATHER BULLISH
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND EVEN THE NAM SHOWS SOME POPS OVER THE
AREA. INHERITED CHANCE POPS THEREFORE SEEMS
REASONABLE...SUPPORTED BY CONSALL..AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO TRY AND TIME CLEARING FOR WED AFTN.
WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY ALL
THE MODELS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES
APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS COVER
AND ACTUAL TIMING OF SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAINLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE RAINFALL...BUT
THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...BELOW 12 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES.
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY
GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO
OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON
NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
147 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS OF 1845 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. BASED UPON DUAL POL
SIGNATURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MOSTLY RAIN APPEARS TO BE
FALLING FROM PLENTYWOOD...TO GLASGOW AND SOUTH WITH SNOW TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC RAP/HRRR. THUS WILL FOLLOW
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE BAND
PROPAGATES INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 35-40F RANGE. THUS...EXPECT RAIN TO MIX
WITH SNOW OR BECOME ALL SNOW AT TIMES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN HOW
WELL SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES FOLLOWING THE RAP SNOWFALL FORECAST.
ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO DESCRIBE THE
THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2...WHERE THE INCOMING 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE 06 UTC SUITE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND AFTERNOON WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
POPS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES FROM THE DICKINSON AREA...THROUGH MORTON COUNTY...INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF GRASSY AREAS SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THERE...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
WHICH INDICATES MORE QPF THIS MORNING. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO
THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KMOT WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS
AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
NO CHANGES TO PUBLISHED GRIDS AT THIS TIME. 18Z DISCUSSION
INCLUDED UPDATED AVIATION AND HYDRO SECTIONS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RUC AND NAM FOCUSING ON A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. WILL USE NAM
GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AND THEN NAM GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z.
SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY ENDING BY MID MORNING MONDAY. CURRENT
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MINIMAL GROUND TRUTH...MAINLY MID LEVEL DECK. THE NAM HAS DRIED THAT
OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS THESE INITIAL (WEAK)
ECHOES DRIFT EAST...AND WILL SPEED THINGS UP AS NECESSARY WITH 18Z
UPDATE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MOVING INTO SW MN ATTM. OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO ERN ND SO UPPED SKY COVER SOME FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM DICKINSON ND AREA TO SOUTH OF BISMARCK TO
ABERDEEN SD MOVING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. FARTHER SOUTH ACTUALLY A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD EAST OF PIERRE TOWARD HURON. THIS
FORCING WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR
NE 1/2 OF FCST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF CANDO-GRAND FORKS-PARK
RAPIDS LINE. EXPECT GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA.
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ND TODAY AND THRU ERN
ND/NW MN TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BUT SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND WITH SHOWERS ON
RADARS TO OUR WEST WENT ALONG WITH WFO BIS AND INCREASED POPS IN
NE ND INTO THE CNTRL RRV TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANY PRECIP EXIT THE MN FCST AREA EARLY...BUT
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP IN FAR WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF NEXT LARGER SYSTEM. THEN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DAYTIME TUESDAY AS 850-700
MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE 500 MB TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONSISTENCY THIS PERIOD CONTINUES WITH
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS AS IT RELATES TO THE LARGE SCALE. QUESTIONS
ABOUND REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA MAY BLOCK THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REDUCING OVERALL QPF. ECMWF AND NAM12/DGEX SUGGEST
SAID CONVECTION BRUSHING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH AND WEST WITH INSTABILITY AFT 00Z THU.
GEM-NH...ECMWF AND DGEX FARTHER SOUTHEAST SUGGEST TSRA RISK FOR OUR
AREA IS PRETTY LOW. BEST TIMING WOULD BE IN THE 12Z WED - 06Z THU
AND SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGH APPROX FSD-DLH LINE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
850-500 DIV Q...700 FRONTOGEN AND COUPLED JET SUPPLYING THE LIFT FOR
-RASH/-RA OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. QUESTION AGAIN IS HOW MUCH PLAINS
CONVECTION INTERFERES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT QPF.
ON FRIDAY LOW WRAPS UP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TAKING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH IT. COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY YIELD TO SOME
-RASH LATE FRIDAY. THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
REGION. THUS UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WEATHER IS SUGGESTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAINLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE RAINFALL...BUT
THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...BELOW 12 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES.
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY
GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO
OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON
NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RUC AND NAM FOCUSING ON A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. WILL USE NAM
GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AND THEN NAM GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z.
SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY ENDING BY MID MORNING MONDAY. CURRENT
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MINIMAL GROUND TRUTH...MAINLY MID LEVEL DECK. THE NAM HAS DRIED THAT
OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS THESE INITIAL (WEAK)
ECHOES DRIFT EAST...AND WILL SPEED THINGS UP AS NECESSARY WITH 18Z
UPDATE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MOVING INTO SW MN ATTM. OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO ERN ND SO UPPED SKY COVER SOME FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM DICKINSON ND AREA TO SOUTH OF BISMARCK TO
ABERDEEN SD MOVING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. FARTHER SOUTH ACTUALLY A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD EAST OF PIERRE TOWARD HURON. THIS
FORCING WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR
NE 1/2 OF FCST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF CANDO-GRAND FORKS-PARK
RAPIDS LINE. EXPECT GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA.
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ND TODAY AND THRU ERN
ND/NW MN TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BUT SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND WITH SHOWERS ON
RADARS TO OUR WEST WENT ALONG WITH WFO BIS AND INCREASED POPS IN
NE ND INTO THE CNTRL RRV TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANY PRECIP EXIT THE MN FCST AREA EARLY...BUT
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP IN FAR WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF NEXT LARGER SYSTEM. THEN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DAYTIME TUESDAY AS 850-700
MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE 500 MB TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONSISTENCY THIS PERIOD CONTINUES WITH
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS AS IT RELATES TO THE LARGE SCALE. QUESTIONS
ABOUND REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA MAY BLOCK THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REDUCING OVERALL QPF. ECMWF AND NAM12/DGEX SUGGEST
SAID CONVECTION BRUSHING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH AND WEST WITH INSTABILITY AFT 00Z THU.
GEM-NH...ECMWF AND DGEX FARTHER SOUTHEAST SUGGEST TSRA RISK FOR OUR
AREA IS PRETTY LOW. BEST TIMING WOULD BE IN THE 12Z WED - 06Z THU
AND SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGH APPROX FSD-DLH LINE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
850-500 DIV Q...700 FRONTOGEN AND COUPLED JET SUPPLYING THE LIFT FOR
-RASH/-RA OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. QUESTION AGAIN IS HOW MUCH PLAINS
CONVECTION INTERFERES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT QPF.
ON FRIDAY LOW WRAPS UP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TAKING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH IT. COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY YIELD TO SOME
-RASH LATE FRIDAY. THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
REGION. THUS UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WEATHER IS SUGGESTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP NR HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR. WINDS LIGHT
THIS MORNING TURNING MORE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS
AFTN-TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. AMOUNTS THAT LIGHT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT TO CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS.
FARGO IS THE ONLY FORECAST POINT CURRENT ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND IS FALLING...PROBABLY GOING BELOW MODERATE LEVELS LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT. HALSTAD...EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO ARE AT OR PAST THEIR
BROAD CRESTS AND SHOULD FALL VERY SLOWLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DOWNSTREAM AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH ARE JUST ABOVE FIS AND SLOW
RISES ARE INDICATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2...WHERE THE INCOMING 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE 06 UTC SUITE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND AFTERNOON WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
POPS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES FROM THE DICKINSON AREA...THROUGH MORTON COUNTY...INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF GRASSY AREAS SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THERE...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
WHICH INDICATES MORE QPF THIS MORNING. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO
THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARDS
MVFR/IFR AT KISN AND KMOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING IN
STRATUS AND RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
POPS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES FROM THE DICKINSON AREA...THROUGH MORTON COUNTY...INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF GRASSY AREAS SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THERE...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
WHICH INDICATES MORE QPF THIS MORNING. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO
THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN -SN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS KDIK AND
INTO KBIS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD
KISN AND KMOT WHERE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND OVER
EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KMOT WITH -SN IN THE MORNING MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO -RA BY THE AFTERNOON. KJMS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR
CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO LOW VFR AT KBIS BY 17Z...WHILE KDIK/KISN WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND -RA AT KMOT/KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS INITIATING AS NARROW
INTENSIFYING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SLOPE AND
HETTINGER COUNTIES. BEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT IS A
BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS...AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR/RAP MODELS MISSING
CURRENT PRECIPITATION AREA. INCREASED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
WHERE PRECIPITATION BANDING HAS DEVELOPED. WILL MONITOR FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
FORM OF PRECIPITATION BUT WITH DYNAMIC COOLING BECOMING
DOMINATE...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE 4 MAY 00
UTC NAM MAY HAVE BEST INITIALIZED THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE ARE
ALSO STILL SOME SHOWERS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BEING FLATTENED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES ARE HARD TO
DISCERN OVER MONTANA...A STRONGER IMPULSE CAN BE SEEN MOVING
ACROSS OREGON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TRACKING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING TOWARD
THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT...LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE STILL INDICATING THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE MOVES INTO THE WEST SUNDAY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...DID GIVE THE NAM SOME CREDIT
AND EXTENDED POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THIS BROUGHT SOME CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH FROM AROUND WATFORD
CITY TO THE BISMARCK AREA...BUT STILL LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW. HOPEFULLY WHEN THE 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS
COME IN THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
CLIPPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DIMINISHING STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ELSEWHERE. UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 22 UTC RAP MESOSCALE OUTPUT. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASED CLOUDS NORTH WEST AND CENTRAL. BROUGHT SOME HIGHER POPS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING BUT BACKED THIS DOWN A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED RAP GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE A FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BAND...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND WHICH FAVORS WPC
AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW IN SOME AREAS...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT KDIK. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS IN THE HEART OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BUT
STILL KEPT AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY EXPECT THOSE ON
GRASSY TYPE SURFACES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SINCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE TRICKY.
THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALREADY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER. DECIDED TO PULL
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS KEEPING THE MUCAPE AXIS WEST AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT SHOW ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BUT THAT CHANGES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A CONTINUATION
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT...THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ROCKIES TROUGH EVENTUALLY BEGINS MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY IMPULSES
FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE STATE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PROVIDE GOOD INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTED TO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAIN WITH THE INSTABILITY AND ENERGY IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS VERY ACTIVE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY - SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF MODELS - RANGE FROM
0.5 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE 2
INCHES - ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH
BASINS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN...AND THE SEVERITY OF THE
IMPACTS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO LOW VFR AT KBIS BY 17Z...WHILE KDIK/KISN WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. KJMS WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND
-RA AT KMOT/KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. DID
TRIM BACK POPS SOME BY BLENDING IN NEW HRRR. ALSO LOWER LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH SOME BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR
SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS
DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER
DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID
WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO
FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMER PREVIEW WILL BE AIRING ON THE START FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
WE WERE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS A BIT SLOWER ON INCREASING
POPS...AND A BIT HIGHER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CRW-CKB
CORRIDOR ON EAST ON FRIDAY. PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY FRIDAY...AS INITIAL ENERGY WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH LIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
500 MB DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PASS BY OUR VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HIGHEST POPS ARE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE FRONT NEVER
CLEARS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF BUILDS
BACK RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR DAY 7/MONDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST
BY MOTHERS DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT NEVER CLEARS...STILL VULNERABLE
TO ANY WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. I TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
SLIGHTER WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MID CLOUDS NORTH
AND HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTH OF
I-64...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE SPECIFIC
MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS POINT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
HEAVIER SHOWER APPROACHES A TAF SITE. MODELS HITTING FOG PRETTY
HARD AT EKN...BUT THINK WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET DENSE FOG SO LEFT IFR OUT. IF CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST...FOG
WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN. VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSER FOG MAY FORM IN VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/06/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...MZ/JM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
724 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR
SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS
DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER
DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID
WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO
FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMER PREVIEW WILL BE AIRING ON THE START FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
WE WERE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS A BIT SLOWER ON INCREASING
POPS...AND A BIT HIGHER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CRW-CKB
CORRIDOR ON EAST ON FRIDAY. PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY FRIDAY...AS INITIAL ENERGY WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH LIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
500 MB DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PASS BY OUR VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HIGHEST POPS ARE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE FRONT NEVER
CLEARS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF BUILDS
BACK RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR DAY 7/MONDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST
BY MOTHERS DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT NEVER CLEARS...STILL VULNERABLE
TO ANY WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. I TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
SLIGHTER WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MID CLOUDS NORTH
AND HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTH OF
I-64...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE SPECIFIC
MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS POINT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
HEAVIER SHOWER APPROACHES A TAF SITE. MODELS HITTING FOG PRETTY
HARD AT EKN...BUT THINK WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET DENSE FOG SO LEFT IFR OUT. IF CLOUDS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST...FOG
WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN. VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSER FOG MAY FORM IN VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...MZ/JM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER. THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS IS AFFECT NE OH
AND NW PA AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AROUND NOON WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. NW OH WILL HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET
THAT IS STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS
TOUGH. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NW PA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH SHOULD THE CHANCE BE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN...SO TRIED TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS TO NE OH. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS WENT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR CUT. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THEY GET AND THE
IMPACT ON FROST AND FREEZE. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS DON`T COME
IN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
IF THIN CLOUDS COME IN THEY MAY LIMIT THE PROBLEM TO SOME FROST.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EVEN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
A WARM TREND STARTING MID WEEK. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN...THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD AND A CAP IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE NEAR
850MB SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS PARTLY SUNNY...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED
IF WE REALLY END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL
FRIDAY SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN A FEW OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR
50 PERCENT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND IF IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA
THROUGH 21Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNLESS
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROP IN ANY MORE MODERATE SHOWERS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
TO WEST BETWEEN 14-16Z...THEN NORTHWEST BY 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT HOLDING IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 FEET FOR
A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS MAY END UP BEING MARGINAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL HAVE A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND
STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER TO FINISH
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER. THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS IS AFFECT NE OH
AND NW PA AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AROUND NOON WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. NW OH WILL HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET
THAT IS STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS
TOUGH. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NW PA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH SHOULD THE CHANCE BE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN...SO TRIED TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS TO NE OH. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS WENT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR CUT. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THEY GET AND THE
IMPACT ON FROST AND FREEZE. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS DON`T COME
IN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
IF THIN CLOUDS COME IN THEY MAY LIMIT THE PROBLEM TO SOME FROST.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EVEN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
A WARM TREND STARTING MID WEEK. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN...THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD AND A CAP IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE NEAR
850MB SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS PARTLY SUNNY...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED
IF WE REALLY END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL
FRIDAY SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN A FEW OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR
50 PERCENT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND IF IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR SO IN SOME OF THE
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES AT CAK/YNG. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN
14-16Z ON SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE SE
OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS ERI...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS
YNG...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT HOLDING IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 FEET FOR
A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS MAY END UP BEING MARGINAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL HAVE A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND
STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER TO FINISH
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET THAT IS
STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS TOUGH. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR NW PA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH
SHOULD THE CHANCE BE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...SO
TRIED TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS TO NE OH. THE HRRR MODEL HAS SOME
SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS WENT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR CUT. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THEY GET AND THE
IMPACT ON FROST AND FREEZE. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS DON`T COME
IN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
IF THIN CLOUDS COME IN THEY MAY LIMIT THE PROBLEM TO SOME FROST.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EVEN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
A WARM TREND STARTING MID WEEK. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN...THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD AND A CAP IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE NEAR
850MB SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS PARTLY SUNNY...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED
IF WE REALLY END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL
FRIDAY SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN A FEW OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR
50 PERCENT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND IF IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR SO IN SOME OF THE
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES AT CAK/YNG. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN
14-16Z ON SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE SE
OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS ERI...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS
YNG...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT HOLDING IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 FEET FOR
A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS MAY END UP BEING MARGINAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL HAVE A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND
STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER TO FINISH
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TIMBER LAKE TO
HAYTI...GIVEN EXPECTED DURATION OF CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING LOW
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. DID NUDGE THE SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST ZONES UP A FEW DEGREES AS THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATING THIS MORNING
TO SCALE BACK POPS AND WIND DOWN THE POPS/WX MENTION SOONER...AND
ELIMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON POPS/WX MENTION ALTOGETHER...AS IT
APPEARS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AND
PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THIS CWA LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE
OUT.
HYDROLOGY...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ONGOING UPSTREAM WATER
RELEASES...THE JAMES RIVER IS JUST ABOUT TO HIT FLOOD
STAGE...WHICH IS 13 FEET. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CRESTING AT APPX 13.5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT. ALSO...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. THE
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
954 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TIMBER LAKE TO
HAYTI...GIVEN EXPECTED DURATION OF CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING LOW
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. DID NUDGE THE SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST ZONES UP A FEW DEGREES AS THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATING THIS MORNING
TO SCALE BACK POPS AND WIND DOWN THE POPS/WX MENTION SOONER...AND
ELIMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON POPS/WX MENTION ALTOGETHER...AS IT
APPEARS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AND
PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THIS CWA LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE
OUT.
HYDROLOGY...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ONGOING UPSTREAM WATER
RELEASES...THE JAMES RIVER IS JUST ABOUT TO HIT FLOOD
STAGE...WHICH IS 13 FEET. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CRESTING AT APPX 13.5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KATY AND KABR THIS
MORNING BEFORE EXITING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING NEAR KPIR AND KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
738 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR CODINGTON..DEUEL AND HAMLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ROADS AND ANY PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS WEST RIVER AS ALL PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALREADY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KATY AND KABR THIS
MORNING BEFORE EXITING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING NEAR KPIR AND KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE COULD AFFECT MBG...ABR AND ATY AND STAY NORTH OF PIR. DONT
EXPECT ANY BIG REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. THE WINDS COULD GET A
LITTLE BREEZY ON SUNDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
915 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE SEEN TO THE NORTH WHERE THE FRONT ALOFT CONTINUES
TO RESIDE. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE THAT PASSED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON ANY ADDED SHRA THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PASSING MID DECK.
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY NOW ACROSS THE FAR
SW WHERE THERE IS LITTLE FOCUS WHILE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE WITH THE CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TENDS TO SAG THIS BAND SOUTH TOWARD THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY I-64
AND POINTS NORTH. ELSW TRENDING DRIER AND MAINLY PC AS APPEARS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WONT BE ENOUGH TO POP ADDED SHRA
THROUGH THE CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. QUITE A
RANGE IN TEMPS FROM UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO 70S SOUTH/WEST SHOULD
EVEN OUT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER SW
PER EASTERLY FLOW SO LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES ESPCLY HIGHWAY 460
NORTH.
UPDATE AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION...UPDATED TO
LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT
FOLLOWING THE PASSING SPEED MAX ATTM. DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
TO STAY NORTH WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT SO MAINLY HOLDING
ONTO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING VERY LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT BASICALLY LEFT A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ZONE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL FURTHER ADDRESS
THE OVERNIGHT POPS WITH THE NEXT LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE IN THE FRONTAL POSITION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...THERE REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SWODY1 SEE TEXT MENTION. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND HELP WITH DAMAGING WINDS THREAT.
THE LOCAL RNK WRFARW AND HRRR CAPTURE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 LOOKED OVERDONE WITH COVERAGE IN
NEW RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME THEN SHIFT FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOKED SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LESS COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE CAP IS THE STRONGEST. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
NAM AND ECMWF HAVE DECREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS PLACES MORE ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION. PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE
MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED CELLS IN
THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US TUESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCING THE WEATHER THRU WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO CARRY
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
TUESDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
TRACK A VORT TIED TO DYING MCS ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...SO UPPED POPS TO
30ISH THERE...LINGERING THRU WED MORNING. THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER PLUS WE START TO SEE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF US TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDINESS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE SOUTH. ENOUGH OF A
CAP WITH MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY TRICKY GIVEN DYING MCS IN THE MORNING AND LINGERING
CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND LIMITED WEDGE WITH
HIGH TO THE EAST. WENT TOWARD COOLER ECWMF MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS
STAYING OVER THE SW CWA WITH BLF/JFZ REACHING 80...WHILE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OCCUR FROM THE NRV AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH AND EAST.
SHOULD BE DRY WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ON TRACK TO REACH THE 80S OVER A
GOOD DEAL OF THE REGION...MAYBE APPROACH/REACH 90 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT AND NW NC PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT MAY
SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY..
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENED THIS
EVENING WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF SHRA WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF THIS COVERAGE TO STAY TO THE
NORTH/NE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA NEARING THE I-64
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR NE FLOW TO BRING LOW
CLOUDS IN ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF AND KDAN MAY SEE ONLY BKN MID DECK
WITH SOME FILLING IN OF VFR LEVEL STRATO-CU LATE. THEREFORE
LOWERED CIGS TO MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
EAST AND INCLUDED MVFR FOG IN SPOTS WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF IFR
AT KLWB LATE.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A
LOW LEVEL WEDGE STUCK OVER THE EAST AND WESTERLY FLOW BLUE RIDGE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF MUCH ADDED UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT SO WONT INCLUDE.
HOWEVER CIGS AGAIN TRICKY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A 3-5K
FT CU FIELD OVER MOST SPOTS EXCEPT AT KLYH WHERE EASTERLY FLOW MAY
KEEP SOME LOWER MVFR TYPE CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY PUSHED
ALL SITES TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OVER
THE WESTERN LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING BUT LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION...UPDATED TO
LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT
FOLLOWING THE PASSING SPEED MAX ATTM. DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
TO STAY NORTH WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT SO MAINLY HOLDING
ONTO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING VERY LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT BASICALLY LEFT A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ZONE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL FURTHER ADDRESS
THE OVERNIGHT POPS WITH THE NEXT LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE IN THE FRONTAL POSITION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...THERE REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SWODY1 SEE TEXT MENTION. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND HELP WITH DAMAGING WINDS THREAT.
THE LOCAL RNK WRFARW AND HRRR CAPTURE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 LOOKED OVERDONE WITH COVERAGE IN
NEW RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME THEN SHIFT FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOKED SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LESS COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE CAP IS THE STRONGEST. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
NAM AND ECMWF HAVE DECREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS PLACES MORE ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION. PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE
MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED CELLS IN
THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US TUESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCING THE WEATHER THRU WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO CARRY
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
TUESDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
TRACK A VORT TIED TO DYING MCS ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...SO UPPED POPS TO
30ISH THERE...LINGERING THRU WED MORNING. THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER PLUS WE START TO SEE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF US TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDINESS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE SOUTH. ENOUGH OF A
CAP WITH MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY TRICKY GIVEN DYING MCS IN THE MORNING AND LINGERING
CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND LIMITED WEDGE WITH
HIGH TO THE EAST. WENT TOWARD COOLER ECWMF MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS
STAYING OVER THE SW CWA WITH BLF/JFZ REACHING 80...WHILE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OCCUR FROM THE NRV AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH AND EAST.
SHOULD BE DRY WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ON TRACK TO REACH THE 80S OVER A
GOOD DEAL OF THE REGION...MAYBE APPROACH/REACH 90 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT AND NW NC PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH
WPC AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW
ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKYS. THE
PATTERN FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE
NORTH OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT MAY
SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY..
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENED THIS
EVENING WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF SHRA WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF THIS COVERAGE TO STAY TO THE
NORTH/NE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA NEARING THE I-64
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR NE FLOW TO BRING LOW
CLOUDS IN ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF AND KDAN MAY SEE ONLY BKN MID DECK
WITH SOME FILLING IN OF VFR LEVEL STRATO-CU LATE. THEREFORE
LOWERED CIGS TO MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
EAST AND INCLUDED MVFR FOG IN SPOTS WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF IFR
AT KLWB LATE.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A
LOW LEVEL WEDGE STUCK OVER THE EAST AND WESTERLY FLOW BLUE RIDGE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF MUCH ADDED UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT SO WONT INCLUDE.
HOWEVER CIGS AGAIN TRICKY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A 3-5K
FT CU FIELD OVER MOST SPOTS EXCEPT AT KLYH WHERE EASTERLY FLOW MAY
KEEP SOME LOWER MVFR TYPE CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY PUSHED
ALL SITES TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OVER
THE WESTERN LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING BUT LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
132 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN
THE EAST. RUC13 AND NAM12 SHOWED INCREASE IN WINDS 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDED
ENHANCE FIRE STATEMENT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
00Z AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE SWODY1 BRINGS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
THE LOCAL RNK WRF ARW KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER THREAT
NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HINDER COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HELD ON TO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE AIRPORTS
IS VERY LOW.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND
SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT SUNDAY...
IN COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE EXPANDED THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE
AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 30 MPH. WESTERN COUNTIES RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM LAST WEEK AND FUEL LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1228 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN
THE EAST. RUC13 AND NAM12 SHOWED INCREASE IN WINDS 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDED
ENHANCE FIRE STATEMENT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 952 AM EDT...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
00Z AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE SWODY1 BRINGS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
THE LOCAL RNK WRF ARW KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER THREAT
NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HINDER COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HELD ON TO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE
AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
15Z/11AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE EXPANDED THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE
AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 30 MPH. WESTERN COUNTIES RECIEVE MORE RAINFALL FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM LAST WEEK AND FUEL LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
00Z AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE SWODY1 BRINGS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
THE LOCAL RNK WRF ARW KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER THREAT
NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HINDER COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HELD ON TO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE
AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
15Z/11AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND
WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM LAST WEEK SO FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
732 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE
AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
15Z/11AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND
WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM LAST WEEK SO FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
508 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY. SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW VA COULD
KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB
AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
13-14Z/9-10AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST REGION. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WX AND WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND
WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM LAST WEEK SO FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A BAND OF STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRUSH NORTHEAST
IOWA AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS
BAND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THE BAND MOVING THROUGH OUR 5 WESTERN
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES
UP TO 50 PERCENT FROM 04.13Z TO 04.16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS AT MID-DAY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MID CLOUD IN THE AREA.
THIS GENERAL AREA OF FORCING...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THIS CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
ROUND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN/WI
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. TAF
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN THESE BANDS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT MORE MID CLOUD AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH
STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF LOCATIONS. OTHER
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SWITCHING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST.
WHILE SPEEDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT
MAY BE OF INTEREST TO SOME AIRCRAFT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A BAND OF STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRUSH NORTHEAST
IOWA AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS
BAND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THE BAND MOVING THROUGH OUR 5 WESTERN
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES
UP TO 50 PERCENT FROM 04.13Z TO 04.16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 04.13 AND 04.17Z. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SPRINKLE AT KRST
BETWEEN 04.16Z AND 04.20Z...SO KEPT THE VCSH IN THE TAF. FURTHER
EAST...IT WILL BE JUST TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SO KEPT THE
KLSE TAF DRY.
CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 9 TO 13K IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWER ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 5 TO
10K FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 04.13 AND 04.17Z. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SPRINKLE AT KRST
BETWEEN 04.16Z AND 04.20Z...SO KEPT THE VCSH IN THE TAF. FURTHER
EAST...IT WILL BE JUST TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SO KEPT THE
KLSE TAF DRY.
CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 9 TO 13K IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWER ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 5 TO
10K FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE 04.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT HAS SHIFTED THIS WAVE FARTHER
NORTH THAN WHAT THE 03.18Z RUN INDICATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
WOULD SUGGEST THE WAVE IS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WHICH IS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST. THE NAM ALSO
TRENDED MUCH WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT DEVELOPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TO THE POINT THAT ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE WAVE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE 04.00Z GFS HAS COME IN WITH A VERY SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT
SHOWED WITH ITS 03.18Z RUN AND ALSO WOULD SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
WOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THEY COME IN. COULD SEE THESE AS JUST
ENOUGH TO WET THE PAVEMENT WET OR SOME SPRINKLES SO HAVE LEFT IN
THE VCSH AT BOTH SITES. CEILINGS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
EVENING LOOK TO BE VFR WITH A MID LEVEL DECK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
925 PM PDT MON MAY 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL...WINDY WEATHER
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONTINUED COOL WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WHAT STARTED OUT AS AN INNOCUOUS 500 MB TROUGH 5 DAYS AGO...WITH
BARELY A HINT OF PRECIP OVER SO-CAL...HAS SINCE EVOLVED INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACKED WITH ENERGY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WAS NEAR SFO THIS EVENING AND WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND TRAVERSE SO-CAL TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION...THE CANSAC WRF HAS BY FAR THE HIGHEST QPF OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE HRRR EVENING MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE LOCAL WRF AND NAM4 ARE A DISTANT THIRD. MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TOMORROW...BUT THE PCPN TOTALS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE.
EXPECT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN SOME SECTIONS OF
COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE RAIN SHADOWED INLAND EMPIRE. A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AND VALLEY ZONES. STRONG OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PCPN
AMTS IN THE MTNS WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 9000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL FALL
TO AROUND 6000 FEET TUESDAY WITH COLD CORE ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG WINDS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS TUESDAY. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ACCELERATING MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...AS ARE THE WINDS ALOFT. THE CANSAC AND WRF MODELS SHOW 850
MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL
SURFACE IN THE LOWER DESERTS TONIGHT WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 65 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES AS STRONG
WIND ENERGY ALOFT SINKS TOWARD THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SLAM INTO THE BEACHES
UNIMPEDED WITH 15-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH.
WEDNESDAY...COOL...CYCLONIC NW FLOW LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY SO
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER...BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY...WARMER DAYS UNDER
ZONAL NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GEM AND ECWMF GENERATE A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS TOO FAR
NORTHEAST FOR ANY PRECIP DOWN HERE. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BRIEFLY
DEEPEN IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW...A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
060415Z...COAST/VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
OCCUR...WITH BASES MOSTLY AROUND 2000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 6000 FT
MSL. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. SCT SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI BELOW THE
CLOUD BASE. CONDITIONS TUE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM BKN-OVC TO
SCT-BKN BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE INLAND
TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE. AREAS OF WEST
SFC GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR TUE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
MTNS/DESERTS...AREAS OF TERRAIN MAINLY BELOW 6000 FEET AND MAINLY ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH 19Z TUE.
SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY 06Z THROUGH 19Z TUE. AREAS OF SFC
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES ALONG MTN CRESTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...DESERT SLOPES AND EAST
OF MOUNTAIN PASS...WITH LOCAL 45 KNOT GUSTS IN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. A ROTOR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES NEAR KPSP.
UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LLWS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS. LOCAL VIS
BELOW 3 MI WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS.
&&
.MARINE...
915 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT IN BOTH
THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT...LOCALLY
HIGHER...WHICH WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING...PEAK TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ALSO INCREASE...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS AROUND 11 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR INFO
ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM PDT TUESDAY TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS...AND SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
251 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11Z-13Z AT
BOTH SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE DEWPOINT VALUES. HAVE DECIDED TO EXCLUDE MENTION
OF FOG AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY BEFORE
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL THEN DOMINATE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND N CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES HAS LED TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW DISTURBANCES CROSSED THE REGION THIS
PAST EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...NOVA AND THE PANHANDLE OF WV OVERNIGHT. A THETA E GRADIENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LED TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE FROM THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA AS NLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSH THE WAA SOUTHWARD. 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS APPARENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS PAST EVENING. ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND SRN MD THIS
MORNING. 3KM HRRR HAS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS BY SUNRISE.
THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRY
NLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS SUBTLE WAA WILL EXIST
ACROSS THIS AREA. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND A
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. WAA WILL BE ENHANCED
AGAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT. THE
SFC WARM FRONT MAY SLIGHTLY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE STATIONARY. WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WAA ALOFT...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND ANY THAT MOVES EASTWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ISO-SCT SHOWERS. ONLY CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AND MAINLY OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NE
MARYLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST REGIONS WED NGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND MOVING THRU THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS AND THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES
WOULD ALLOW FOR SRN EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA (PARTICULARLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MD) WED NGT.
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THU AND THU NGT.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE WARM FROPA.
THE 00Z NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF WERE ESPECIALLY BULLISH WITH THE IDEA OF
THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE NRN AND ERN SUBURBS
OF DC ON THU AND EVEN RETREATING TO THE SW A BIT THU NGT AS SFC
HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM WRN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS IN THE MU80S ARE
LIKELY IN WARM SECTOR TO THE SW OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP US DRY THRU AT LEAST THU NGT.
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST FRI AND OFFSHORE FRI NGT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISO TSTM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG PRE-
FRONTAL SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS FARTHER
EAST TOWARD I-95 FRI NGT. WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S FRI AND LOWS IN THE 60S FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PARENT LOW THAT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL
BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH
IT INITIALLY DEVELOPED UNDER. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL
STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL US SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE
STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS/OUT OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK.
OVERALL THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT. VARIATION
IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON RAIN
CHANCES LOCALLY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...IF
FRONT ENDS UP STALLING FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA MAY WELL END UP BEING DRY TO START THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60 SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS AND WET
CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR
CHO-IAD. OVC CEILINGS WILL HELP NEGATE THIS AND THEREFORE KEPT LOW
VSBYS OUT OF THE TAFS. WILL MONITOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY SUNRISE AND CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED-THURS.
A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NEWD THRU THE REGION WED NGT BUT
THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR DCA-BWI-MTN THU AND FRI.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO THESE ERN TERMINALS THU NGT DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING HAIL IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
AND LOWER BAY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE AND
LIGHT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
LGT E-SE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. SLY WINDS INCREASE SAT WITH SCA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK/CEB
AVIATION...JRK/HAS
MARINE...JRK/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS
THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI
PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA
MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER.
BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND
OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED
PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS
WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE
SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE
HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS...
EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT
EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF
IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE
RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER
TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL
ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND
THE SFC LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE SET UP ALONG THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THROUGH NV AND S CA. CLOSER TO HOME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S...UP THROUGH MANITOBA AND QUEBEC.
THE INITIAL GLANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE NW CORNER OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AS INCREASED WAA SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
850MB TEMPS AVERAGING 2C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO AN AVG 5C BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ON SSE WINDS. DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM IWD TO
ONTONAGON SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT...THAT IS UNLESS
ISOTROPIC LIFT/WWA RAIN SHOWERS COME IN AS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE SET UP AROUND NE/KS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BASICALLY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES.
MUCH OF THE NE PROGRESS OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING FROM NE TO SW MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE
TO THE EJECTING 500MB TROUGH SLIDING TO THE NE ND AREA.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF RAIN AT LEAST AT
THIS TIME...BUT WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WITH E-SE SFC
WINDS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WITH LATEST FCST
PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE FCST MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
FOR THE INCLUSION OF TS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVE THE ELEVATED NATURE.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE STACKED SFC-500MB BY 12Z FRIDAY
OVER MN. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWED MORE RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVED ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY AND TO JAMES
BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY...MORE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...WITH A
POTENT SECONDARY FRONT SWINGING IN AND FINALLY CHANGING THE NEAR SFC
WINDS TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH
AGREEMENT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE 00-06Z FRI OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
DRY FOR NOW...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR DAYS
6/SUNDAY AND 7/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOW SOMEWHERE
TO OUR W AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE
500MB LOW STILL STUCK ACROSS CANADA /NEAR N SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA/. THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER N
CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRES WILL BE EXITING TO THE E LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED
INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER
ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU
SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION HAS
CONTINUED IS STEADY DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...GOING BELOW
ADVISORY STAGE.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE
LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AROUND 8
AM SUNDAY STILL AT PAINESDALE...AND THE 16IN OF SNOW DEPTH AT HERMAN
AROUND 8 AM MONDAY.
THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE
STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER.
EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH
LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A
HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-FREE CONDITIONS. HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISREGARDED GFS/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT
APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO PESSIMISTIC REGARDING ITS INSISTENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUB-VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DURING THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS...AND THUS THIS FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THERE WILL BE AT-WORST ONLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UNDER THICKER PASSING BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS.
AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE MORE THAN 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY ON DIRECTION...AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS
INSISTENT ON FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP
DIRECTION MAINLY WITHIN 30 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF DUE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TAF REFLECTS THIS AT LEAST FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH HAS FINALLY KICKED OFF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. DID CUT BACK POPS TO THE
WEST JUST A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE...KEPT AT
LEAST A CHANCE GOING ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL
WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME
LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR
SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS
DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER
DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD
WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID
WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO
FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMER PREVIEW WILL BE AIRING ON THE START FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
WE WERE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS A BIT SLOWER ON INCREASING
POPS...AND A BIT HIGHER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CRW-CKB
CORRIDOR ON EAST ON FRIDAY. PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY FRIDAY...AS INITIAL ENERGY WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH LIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
500 MB DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PASS BY OUR VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HIGHEST POPS ARE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE FRONT NEVER
CLEARS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF BUILDS
BACK RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR DAY 7/MONDAY.
THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST
BY MOTHERS DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT NEVER CLEARS...STILL VULNERABLE
TO ANY WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. I TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
SLIGHTER WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEKN AND KCKB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z...FOR A RETURN
OF VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS...AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY FORM IN VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...MAINLY 09-13Z TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/06/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST CONCERN IS AGAIN FIRE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS 24
HOURS AGO. UNFORTUNATELY... THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN MANY AREAS
AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MIX OUT QUICKLY IN THE WEST. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE MOISTURE MIX OUT. NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A CAP ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THAT WOULD
PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OUT THAT WE WILL SEE TO THE WEST. RAP AND
HRRR SUGGEST MIXING OUT FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING MAY PROVIDE
SOME ANSWERS. IF THIS ISN`T ENOUGH... MANY MODELS /NAM.. ECMWF..
RAP/ SHOW QPF SIGNALS BY 00Z. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BUT MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE EXPECTED
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FORECAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE ASSOCIATED RISK
OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING IN SOME AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT TO THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW. AGAIN THERE IS A
QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT. HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW AGAIN IN THE WEST WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL NEARLY CERTAINTY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW EVENING AND EXPANDING OVERNIGHT.
AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT HOW THE ATMOSPHERE AND/OR CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLY THURSDAY CONVECTION. EVEN AFTER THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PLAINS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO A ZONAL PATTERN AND WE KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. .26.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 67 88 66 / 10 0 20 40
HOBART OK 100 65 94 62 / 10 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 69 93 67 / 10 10 30 40
GAGE OK 99 60 95 60 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 98 69 90 68 / 10 0 20 40
DURANT OK 88 66 84 69 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>029-033>039-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE SEEN TO THE NORTH WHERE THE FRONT ALOFT CONTINUES
TO RESIDE. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE THAT PASSED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON ANY ADDED SHRA THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PASSING MID DECK.
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY NOW ACROSS THE FAR
SW WHERE THERE IS LITTLE FOCUS WHILE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE WITH THE CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TENDS TO SAG THIS BAND SOUTH TOWARD THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY I-64
AND POINTS NORTH. ELSW TRENDING DRIER AND MAINLY PC AS APPEARS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WONT BE ENOUGH TO POP ADDED SHRA
THROUGH THE CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. QUITE A
RANGE IN TEMPS FROM UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO 70S SOUTH/WEST SHOULD
EVEN OUT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER SW
PER EASTERLY FLOW SO LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES ESPCLY HIGHWAY 460
NORTH.
UPDATE AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION...UPDATED TO
LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT
FOLLOWING THE PASSING SPEED MAX ATTM. DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
TO STAY NORTH WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT SO MAINLY HOLDING
ONTO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING VERY LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT BASICALLY LEFT A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ZONE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL FURTHER ADDRESS
THE OVERNIGHT POPS WITH THE NEXT LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE IN THE FRONTAL POSITION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...THERE REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SWODY1 SEE TEXT MENTION. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE MIXING OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND HELP WITH DAMAGING WINDS THREAT.
THE LOCAL RNK WRFARW AND HRRR CAPTURE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 LOOKED OVERDONE WITH COVERAGE IN
NEW RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME THEN SHIFT FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOKED SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LESS COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE CAP IS THE STRONGEST. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
NAM AND ECMWF HAVE DECREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS PLACES MORE ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION. PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE
MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED CELLS IN
THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US TUESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCING THE WEATHER THRU WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO CARRY
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
TUESDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
TRACK A VORT TIED TO DYING MCS ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...SO UPPED POPS TO
30ISH THERE...LINGERING THRU WED MORNING. THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER PLUS WE START TO SEE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF US TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDINESS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE SOUTH. ENOUGH OF A
CAP WITH MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY TRICKY GIVEN DYING MCS IN THE MORNING AND LINGERING
CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND LIMITED WEDGE WITH
HIGH TO THE EAST. WENT TOWARD COOLER ECWMF MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS
STAYING OVER THE SW CWA WITH BLF/JFZ REACHING 80...WHILE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OCCUR FROM THE NRV AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH AND EAST.
SHOULD BE DRY WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ON TRACK TO REACH THE 80S OVER A
GOOD DEAL OF THE REGION...MAYBE APPROACH/REACH 90 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT AND NW NC PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WAS EXPANDING WEST...WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD JUST REACHING KDAN AND KLYH AT 05Z/1AM.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO KROA AND KBCB BETWEEN 09Z/5AM AND
11Z/6AM. MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE CEILING HEIGHTS.
KLWB AND KBCB WERE SHOWING A SMALL TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD AT
05Z. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER THIS SUGGESTS FOG WILL DEVELOP
BEFORE 4AM. LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE AT
KLWB. LIFR VISIBILITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT SO WONT INCLUDE. FINALLY
PUSHED ALL SITES TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
COLD POOL WITH -25C AT 500 MB AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS TT SPIKE INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO EXPECT TEMPS GETTING INTO THE
MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE...BUT COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH WINDS TURNING SW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER HERE AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SUB-FREEZING READINGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER OUR REGION AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL.
DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...
TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING BY
PEAK MIXING. SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
00Z MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AT THE
SURFACE LEVELS. COMPARING GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES...THERE ARE
STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL AS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC. OVERALL HAVE A
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT. YET...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD THURS
INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
PUSH UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY MAY BE A DRYING OUT
DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT LOOKING AHEAD...LONG WAVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RIPPLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFFSHORE WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL TRY
TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE AND
SAG JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THANKS TO A COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
THAT PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW AVG ON THURSDAY.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR WAA
TO OCCUR AND WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE REGION AS WELL AS SOME THUNDER AS INDICATED IN ELEVATED
PARAMETERS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY
THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES...APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
RETURN FLOWING AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO 8C. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 25MPH
AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVG.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A LOT OF GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE
EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN A PACIFIC DIGGING SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THAT THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. DIURNAL CUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPING ROM
MID MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. NW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW PROB OF A LATE SEA BREEZE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. THIS
WOULD MAKE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY
TODAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO THURS...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OCCUR WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS.
FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN CT AND EXTREME SE MA AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A
POSSIBILITY.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND
FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KT WITH SEAS UNDER 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS OUT OF THE
S TO SE FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE
WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE
DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AS MIN RH VALUES
DECREASE TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER
STATE OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
956 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
IT HAS BECOME CLEAR EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOVEMENT NORTH BY THE WARM FRONT TODAY. DECIDED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LOWEST
DEWPOINTS. ALSO...THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS BEEN DELAYED IN
ADDITION TO WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THEREFORE...FELT THERE WAS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING RUNNING FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
OR BRIEFLY EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL BUT WITH THE WARNING ALREADY OUT...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
TO REMOVE THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT KGLD AND EAST AT KMCK AS A
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
12KT...THOUGH IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE NORTH QUICK ENOUGH A FEW
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLD. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE AS THIS FRONT
STALLS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE TO SHOW IMPACT IN KMCK TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT KGLD AND EAST AT KMCK AS A
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
12KT...THOUGH IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE NORTH QUICK ENOUGH A FEW
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLD. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE KS/NE STATE LINE AS THIS FRONT
STALLS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE TO SHOW IMPACT IN KMCK TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THEME THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THAT
LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLY EVEN IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IS POSSIBLE
VERY LATE TONIGHT DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE SAME MODELS/GUIDANCE PREDICTED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES/STRATUS FOR THIS MORNING AND NOTHING
MATERIALIZED...AM FEELING PRETTY GUN-SHY ABOUT JUMPING ONTO ANY
TRULY-PESSIMISTIC SOLUTIONS FOR THE 21-24 HOUR TIME RANGE. AS A
RESULT...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT SOME VERY LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL
WITH A MENTION OF 6SM VISIBILITY AND A SCATTERED LOW STRATUS
DECK...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A
MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. PRECIPITATION-
WISE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MORE THAN 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY ON DIRECTION...AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS
INSISTENT ON FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP
DIRECTION PRIMARILY WITHIN 30 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF DUE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TAF REFLECTS THIS MORE EASTERLY
APPROACH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-FREE CONDITIONS. HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISREGARDED GFS/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT
APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO PESSIMISTIC REGARDING ITS INSISTENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUB-VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DURING THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS...AND THUS THIS FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THERE WILL BE AT-WORST ONLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UNDER THICKER PASSING BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS.
AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE MORE THAN 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY ON DIRECTION...AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS
INSISTENT ON FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS/GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP
DIRECTION MAINLY WITHIN 30 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF DUE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE TAF REFLECTS THIS AT LEAST FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1030 AM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT STILL DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS
DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THUS HAVE
GONE WITH A DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET HAVE
ERODED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THIS LAYER NOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 10000 FEET IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WILL BE EXITING LATER THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF UNDER 10 KNOTS.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH NEWD WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1015 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE CAP KEPT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIKE
YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FOR VIRGINIA.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
HEALTHY LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED LESS COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL AROUND 00Z
BEFORE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TOWARDS SATELLITE IMAGES...INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS FEATURE ARRIVES IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST IN STABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND AREA IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK CAP.
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO SOUTH OF
MARTINSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
TODAY THEN WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR AND WEDGE WILL HOLD
IN THE FAR EAST EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
LARGE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE COOLER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FEW CAVEATS. MAX T ON
WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HIGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DELMARVA SUCH THAT SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
PERSISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MORE SW/WSW COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE WEST VA...CREATES SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND PERHAPS ROANOKE VALLEY...THUS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES MAY KEEP MAX T COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THESE
PARTS...WHEREAS THE EXTREME SW VA COUNTIES AND NEAR BLF SHOULD BE
IMMUNE AND PERHAPS GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE WEDGE SEEMS
TO BE GONE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EASILY THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH 90F ATTAINABLE IN THE CITIES. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WITH WINDS BACKING A TAD AS A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE FROM THE ARKLATEX...STORMS LOOK MOST
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS A COMMON
DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS IN THIS REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKEYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WAS JUST EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH AT
11Z/7AM. SHALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG AT KBCB AND KLWB IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS FEATURE ARRIVES IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST IN STABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND AREA IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK CAP.
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO SOUTH OF
MARTINSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
TODAY THEN WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR AND WEDGE WILL HOLD
IN THE FAR EAST EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
LARGE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE COOLER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FEW CAVEATS. MAX T ON
WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HIGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DELMARVA SUCH THAT SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
PERSISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MORE SW/WSW COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE WEST VA...CREATES SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND PERHAPS ROANOKE VALLEY...THUS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES MAY KEEP MAX T COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THESE
PARTS...WHEREAS THE EXTREME SW VA COUNTIES AND NEAR BLF SHOULD BE
IMMUNE AND PERHAPS GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE WEDGE SEEMS
TO BE GONE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EASILY THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH 90F ATTAINABLE IN THE CITIES. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WITH WINDS BACKING A TAD AS A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE FROM THE ARKLATEX...STORMS LOOK MOST
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS A COMMON
DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS IN THIS REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKEYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WAS JUST EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH AT
11Z/7AM. SHALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG AT KBCB AND KLWB IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
247 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS IN SAN BENITO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 2:46 PM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SAN
BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES ARE DUE TO HEATING OF THE DAY AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. HNX DOPPLER RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG MUSTANG RIDGE AND THE
CHALOME HILLS...JUST SOUTH OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. SHOWERS COULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THE SAN BENITO HILLS BUT RADAR BEAM BLOCKAGE
COULD BE HIDING THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AS HEATING OF THE DAY DISSIPATES AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.
HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY VALID THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR
HERNANDEZ CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LI VALUES
AROUND -2.8 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A
DRY LAYER FROM 5000 FEET TO THE SURFACE SO MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IF NOT VIRGA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PERFORMED WITH THE 1800Z NAM12 AND 1200Z GFS40
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE GFS40 DOES
NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY. STRONG NW FLOW TODAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO TOMORROW MAINTAINING MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE STEEP FRESH
SWELL. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT COOLING...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...AND PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
SLOPES. INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS. A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE6500 TO 7000 FOOT ELEVATION. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED
WARMING POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 1215 PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED ALMOST NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH IS
EVIDENT...AS WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE HIGH 50S OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF 68 MPH REPORTED AT
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A
LITTLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW MORE MOUNTAIN
WAVES FORMING. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN
DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 3 AM
WEDNESDAY. IT IS SLIGHTLY LESS WINDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS THOSE MOUNTAINS ARE ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES FROM PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY FLOW. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH
GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. FINALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS...AND SO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS CONTINUES THROUGH
6 PM TODAY.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION...AND IT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX STARTS
TO COME DOWN OVER THE AREA. THE LOCAL WRF CONTINUES TO NOT SHOW TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVERALL COMPARED TO THE CANSAC
WRF...BUT IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHTNING
OBSERVED IN AREAS NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR WHERE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
IS...AND WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING INCREASED INSTABILITY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
CURRENT SNOW LEVELS ARE AT AROUND 6500 FEET...AND AREAS ABOVE 6500-7000
FOOT ELEVATION COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. AS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE LOWERED BY 10-15 DEGREES...AND
LOCALLY 20 DEGREES...COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMING
AND DRYING WILL OCCUR UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER
500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BECOME GRADUALLY
SHALLOWER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AND WE MAY GET GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...DAY-TIME
HIGHS MAY REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
062000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN STRATUS LAYERS BETWEEN
2000 FT MSL AND 6000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 6SM IN SHOWERS. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK. A GUSTY
WEST SFC WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 07/0300Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
07/0300Z AND STRATUS BECOMING BKN-OVC WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL
AND TOPS 5000 FT MSL. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AFT 07/1700Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...AREAS OF SFC WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS IN ALONG
NORTH-SOUTH MTN CRESTS AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES AND PASSES...WITH
LOCAL 40 KNOT GUSTS IN SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS PARTS OF THE HIGH
DESERT. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND E OF THE MTNS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE WINDS. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 3SM OR LESS IN BLDU. WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
100 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT IN BOTH
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS AND A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER
WATERS TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR INFO.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
222 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK STORM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
EITHER WARM AND DRY WEATHER OR A COLD, FAST MOVING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IS QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BEING SOUTH OF HWY 50 CLOSER TO DEFORMATION
BAND ALOFT AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE BY EARLY EVENING FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SCANT BELOW 7000 FT BUT 1-2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH SIERRA OF MONO CO. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
24-36 HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK
LINE. BEST FORCING FOR THIS PRECIP IS FURTHER NORTH OVER OREGON
WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK, BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER NE CALIFORNIA
AND NW NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS,
AND SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT WHICH REALLY LIMITS
IMPACTS. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HELPING KICK UP WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE. MAIN IMPACT HERE WOULD BE TO BOATERS ON LAKES SUCH AS
PYRAMID. CS
.LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN WIND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH MAY BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FAST MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD EITHER DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NV OR STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THESE WIDE VARIATIONS IN SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE COOLER SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AS
FAR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN MAX TEMPS ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS DOES NOT BRING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEVADA AT ALL, LEADING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE SUPPORT AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR AT LEAST SOME EFFECT OF A QUICK COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, SO MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED TO 65-70 DEGREES FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MODERATE NORTH WIND OF 10-15 MPH. WE ALSO MADE A
SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHOWER POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT, EXPANDING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA TO INCLUDE MOST OF PERSHING COUNTY IN ADDITION
TO AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS RIDGE REBUILDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
RETURNING TO THE 80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS BY TUESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING, THERE COULD BE SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS NEAR THE SIERRA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE WARMER SCENARIOS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE
WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN. IF TEMPS GET THIS WARM, LATE DAY CUMULUS
AND BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN FAVORED CONVERGENCE
ZONES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
STORM WHICH BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY CONTINUING IT`S QUICK PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS MEDIUM, WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
BEING HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND FOG POTENTIAL
AT TRK.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS MVFR SHOWERS IMPACTING MMH
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VACATING. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE A TSTM IN VICINITY OF MMH BUT CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE INCLUDING RNO THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SCT-BKN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING
BUT EXACT TIMING OF THAT IS UNCERTAIN. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WOULD
BE AT TRK. WITH RECENT PRECIP IT WOULD SEEM FOG IS LIKELY AFTER
9Z/WED BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS JUST ABOVE SURFACE IS A TOUCH
TOO DRY FOR FOG. WILL MENTION VCFG IN TRK AS A HEADS-UP TO FOG
POSSIBILITY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL HAPPEN OR NOT. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN SAN BENITO
COUNTY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 9:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...COOL ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
WITH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
SAN BENITO COUNTY.
HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH
THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR HERNANDEZ IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LI OF -0.2 TO -2.7 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DRY LAYER FROM 7000
FEET TO THE SURFACE. THIS DRY LAYER WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL MINIMAL
IN FACT THERE MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN RAIN HITTING THE GROUND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH THE GFS40
DOES NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY. STRONG NW FLOW TODAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MARINERS VENTURING ON
OPEN WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD USE CAUTION AS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS
WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
922 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN SAN BENITO
COUNTY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSSION...AS OF 9:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...COOL ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
WITH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
SAN BENITO COUNTY.
HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR SAN BENITO COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PERFORMED WITH
THE RUC13 MODEL LAUNCHED NEAR HERNANDEZ IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH LI OF -0.2 TO -2.7 AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DRY LAYER FROM 7000
FEET TO THE SURFACE. THIS DRY LAYER WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL MINIMAL
IN FACT THERE MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN RAIN HITTING THE GROUND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DOES FORECAST A TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH THE GFS40
DOES NOT. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TROUGH SINCE THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THIS
MORNING...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KMRY WHERE CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET
PREVAIL. SATELLITE REVEALS THAT A FEW CLOUDS COVER THE HILLS AND
ARE OCCASIONALLY PASSING OVER AIRPORTS. IF CLOUDS DO IMPACT PARTS
OF SF BAY IT WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT. THE BIG STORY FOR TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONG NW FLOW. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR KSFO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A PASSING CLOUD OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THIS WAY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS ROLL OFF
NEARBY HILLS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. KSNS IS VFR THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:22 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MARINERS VENTURING ON
OPEN WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD USE CAUTION AS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE
STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS
WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO COLD
POOL ALOFT AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SHOWERS ARE MOVING SE AND
WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA TOWARD MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD POOL WITH -25C AT 500 MB AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS TT SPIKE INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO EXPECT TEMPS GETTING INTO THE
MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE...BUT COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH WINDS TURNING SW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER HERE AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SUB-FREEZING READINGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER OUR REGION AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL.
DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...
TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING BY
PEAK MIXING. SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
00Z MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AT THE
SURFACE LEVELS. COMPARING GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES...THERE ARE
STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL AS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC. OVERALL HAVE A
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT. YET...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD THURS
INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
PUSH UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY MAY BE A DRYING OUT
DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT LOOKING AHEAD...LONG WAVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RIPPLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFFSHORE WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL TRY
TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE AND
SAG JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THANKS TO A COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
THAT PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW AVG ON THURSDAY.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR WAA
TO OCCUR AND WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE REGION AS WELL AS SOME THUNDER AS INDICATED IN ELEVATED
PARAMETERS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY
THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES...APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
RETURN FLOWING AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO 8C. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 25MPH
AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVG.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A LOT OF GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE
EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN A PACIFIC DIGGING SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THAT THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR CIGS 5-10K FT WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SW WED NIGHT. COASTAL SEABREEZES
LIKELY WED AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY AROUND
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH
SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS.
FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN CT AND EXTREME SE MA AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A
POSSIBILITY.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND
FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KT WITH SEAS UNDER 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS OUT OF THE
S TO SE FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE
WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE
DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AS MIN RH VALUES
DECREASE TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER
STATE OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
IT HAS BECOME CLEAR EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOVEMENT NORTH BY THE WARM FRONT TODAY. DECIDED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LOWEST
DEWPOINTS. ALSO...THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS BEEN DELAYED IN
ADDITION TO WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THEREFORE...FELT THERE WAS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING RUNNING FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
OR BRIEFLY EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL BUT WITH THE WARNING ALREADY OUT...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
TO REMOVE THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS TRI STATE REGION WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING...ALONG
FRONT RANGE...AND INTO SW KANSAS. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GENERAL TREND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AND MOVE NORTH.
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH DRY LINE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PREDOMINATELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. SHEER PROFILES ARE NOT GREAT WHERE ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY...HOWEVER ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH THREAT...AND POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD
LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRONT HOVER
NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUILDING
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTH. RESULT IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM EXTENT OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA. SHEER/INSTABILITY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND UPPER LOW...WITH DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND DEPENDING ON FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER WE COULD SEE QUITE A SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS...THOUGH GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE VERY WARM TODAY AND WED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND A COOLING
TREND THU/FRIDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
WAS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THOUGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH WHAT REMAINS FROM THE
PREVIOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE THE PART OF THE FLOW THAT MORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTS THE TRI STATE AREA. AS FLOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER AREA OF THE JET WILL PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY...BUT
STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER THETA E VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER
KANSAS LOOK TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AND AS THE BACK SIDE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
A LINGERING FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
STALLING AGAIN...THIS TIME BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK. AT KGLD...SOUTH
WINDS INVADE AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BACKING TO THE SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
SHALL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT AT KMCK. AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE EXPECTED
INVERSION DEVELOPS SO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...ONLY MENTIONED 6SM FOG AND SCT015 STRATUS.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE THESE CONDITIONS WORSE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS FRONT LIFT NORTH VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR 3HR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...GOOD MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH FOR 3HR
THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40. DECIDED TO ISSUE
RFW FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WED AS RH VALUES
APPROACH 5% ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...AND STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRONT
POSITION WILL BE KEY...AND NAM IS SHOWING FRONTAL POSITION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT LEAST ON I-70 CORRIDOR
SOUTH...AND I SAW NO REASON TO HOLD OFF UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-254.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE VIRGINIA
COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT IS PUSHING EAST OF HATTERAS AND OUT TO SEA. THE
PROLONGED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HELD CLOUDS IN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VA AND NC...BUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THAT SAID CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
AND NORTHEAST NC WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTH FROM INDIANA
AND OHIO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS FORCING IN THE HRRR...NAM12
AND RUC IS RESULTING IN MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DEVELOP THESE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TRACKING
THEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS FARMVILLE...EMPORIA AND NORTHEAST NC.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NORTHEAST NC. THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO
NORFOLK AND RICHMOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER WED WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALLOWING CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIMITED HEATING EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS
EAST WED NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO LIFT BACK
NNE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND NRN COUNTIES. MUCH WARMER SSW
WIND WILL PREVAIL BY THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SW.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM SW-NE AND WITH THE HEAT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SHIFTING EAST...HIGHS WILL FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 WEST OF THE BAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST).
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S..WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SERN COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL DATA SLOWS THE APPRCH OF NEXT FRNT ACROSS
THE MTS UNTIL SUNDAY. KEPT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING DRY. SCT CONVECTION
PSBL IVOF LEE TROF RESULTING IN DIURNAL POPS SAT AFTRN/EVE. LOWS FRI
NIGHT L-M60S. HIGHS SAT 80-85...XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS.
FRONT APPRCHS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKENS/WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW WANT TO KEEP THIS WEAKEN
BNDRY/TROF HANGING ARND THE RGN THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
TRIGGER...KEPT CHC SHWRS/TSTRMS (20-40%...HIGHEST W OF BAY) IN FCST
THROUGH THE PRD. HIGHS EACH DAY 80-85 EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE 70S
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS U50S-M60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTN AND MOST SITES SHOULD
BE VFR BY AROUND 20Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOST CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A WARM BNDRY CONTINUES TO
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC. ECG IS MOSTLY LIKELY THE TARGET
FOR ANY CONVECTION WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR ORF GETTING SHRAS. LIGHT
NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO WED. SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...THEN CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THRU WED...BCMG SE-S BUT REMAINING
LIGHT WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS AOB 15 KTS...SEAS AVGG 1-2 FT. A
WEAK BKDR FRNT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WRM FRONT.
RESTURN SW FLOW SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
INCREASE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SLIGHT RISK TS POTENTIAL FROM SPC IS ALONG THE WI BORDER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE WARMER AIR
WILL BE FOG...WHICH IS STILL FCST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.
THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
AND TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NV AND S CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY PROGRESS E...STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES /WITH THE APEX OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI/.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DESPITE THE SE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
INTO S WI AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NE INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE W HALF /PENDING RAIN SHOWER/
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO A CWA AVG OF 18C.
CURRENTLY FCSTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS S MN AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
CONCERN TS WISE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT MAY HOOK
UP THROUGH SW UPPER MI AND NEAR THE WI BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CATCH UP TO
IT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER E MN/NW WI AND THE W HALF OF UPPER MI BY
06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS ONTARIO BY
MID DAY FRIDAY...DRAGGING THE INITIAL COLD FRONT E OF UPPER MI. THE
SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE W HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE W-NW.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2C BY SATURDAY MORNING AS PW
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.3IN...OR 45-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 30S FCST FOR THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP BEING A BIT LOWER.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
LOW /PICKED UP MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY WISE OFF THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF/ LOOKS TO BE OVER S CANADA AND MN AT 12Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE
RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS TO THE SW AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI AND MID CLDS ARND THIS FCST PERIOD WELL TO
THE N OF WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS. BUT DRY...STEADY ESE FLOW OF DRY
AIR OUT OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXITING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NE SHOULD
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN IF SOME -SHRA
MOVE INTO IWD/SAW LATE TNGT OR WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SW FLANK OF
HI PRES RETREATING THRU ONTARIO AND IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS...EXPECT SLOWLY VEERING NE TO
SE WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TO DOMINATE INTO THU. AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WED NIGHT/THU...FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE
COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON
THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE E ON SUN AS THE HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING LO
MOVES TO THE E. NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG/SFC
HI PRES OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN TROF IN FAR ERN CANADA AND A PAIR OF
CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT FLOW ACRS THE W...ONE OVER ALBERTA AND THE
OTHER DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. 12Z GRB/APX/MPX RAOBS INDICATE A
DRY...STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH AT
APX. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE HI OVER THE UPR LKS
AND LOWER HGTS/MSLP TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROFFING. THERE
IS A BAND OF THICKER MID LVL CLDS MOVING ENEWD THRU NE MN/WRN LK SUP
AND TOWARD THE WRN LAND CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 300-305K SFCS...OR ABOUT H6-7...WELL TO THE NE OF
DVLPG SFC-H85 WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ADVECTION OF DRIER
AIR IN THE LLVLS WITH STEADY ESE WINDS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE SFC HI
IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE GROUND E OF FAR WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORTER TERM FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF WARM FNT NOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AFTN/TNGT...ALTHOUGH HI CLDS WL SPILL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTN...BAND OF THICKER MID CLDS IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE AFT SUNSET.
THE LLVLS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PCPN FM REACHING THE
SFC EVEN WHERE THE CLDS ARE THICKEST. THE PERIOD FM 00Z-06Z SHOULD BE
DRY DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. WITH AN INCRSG H85 SW LLJ/THETA E
ADVCTN/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TNGT...MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY TO
DVLP AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE TOWARD SRN MN/WI
BY 12Z. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC ARE
FCST TO REMAIN S OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE WARM FNT...CORFIDI VECTORS
FCST TO BE WNW IN WI TO THE N OF THE H85 WARM FNT WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MOST NMRS SHRA/TS REMAINING TO THE S AND ROBBING MSTR FOR PCPN
FARTHER N...AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO LINGER IN THE SFC-H7 LYR WITHIN
PERSISTENT ESE LLVL TRAJECTORIES...SUSPECT THE 12Z GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE TO LIFT PCPN INTO MUCH OF UPR MI BY 12Z WED. WL TREND THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE DRIER 12Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE
RESTRICTS QPF TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND BAND OF SHARPER H85
FGEN. WL FCST HIER CHC POPS OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT GO WITH A
DRY FCST FOR THE NE CWA.
WED...SFC WARM FNT NEAR THE SRN MN/WI BORDER AND H85 WARM FNT INTO
CENTRAL WI IS FCST TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THRU 00Z THU WELL TO THE NE
OF DEEP TROF LINGERING IN THE DESERT SW. WELL TO THE NE OF THIS MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM...12Z MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SOME
UPR CNVGC WL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
UPR RDG/HGT RISES TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT AND DIMINISHING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL SUPPORT THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TS TO THE S AND
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE E INTO THE LOWER LKS PARALLEL TO THE WARM FNT. SO
SUSPECT THE MORE NMRS SHRA WL EXIT THE FAR SCENTRAL EARLY IN THE DAY
AND LEAVE JUST ISOLD-SCT SHRA NEAR THE WI BORDER MOST OF THE DAY.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME ELEVATED TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL LATER IN
THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF FCST LOWER SSI SHOWN BY THE MORE
STABLE GFS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE KEY PIECES TO THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT IS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 997MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE MAIN FEATURES
THAT WILL CONTROL THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA WILL BE
THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED WARM FRONT. THE BROAD WAA IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND MAY BRUSH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING EAST ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO
KENTUCKY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. THIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS AFFECTS THE POP FORECAST
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...SINCE STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD LIKELY TRACK THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WITH THAT EXPECTATION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND ALSO THE SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE MORNING DUE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CONVECTION
BRUSHING THE AREA.
THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE WARM FRONT IS SITUATED AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO TREND TO THAT FRONT BEING
SET FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH MATCHES EXPECTATIONS DUE TO SUPPRESSION
FROM THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA STARTED
LAST NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH HALF CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM (PEAK OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND POTENTIAL NOSE OF DEVELOPING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH) ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. WITH THE EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
COULD BE SOME HAIL...BUT WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A TALL/SKINNY
CAPE AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WOULD EXPECT IT TO STAY SMALL.
ONE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING) IS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN UNDER THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
THIS LOW STRATUS MAY END UP BRINGING MORE OF A FOG/DRIZZLE TO THE
AREA WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN/T OCCURRING AND PROVIDES
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THE FORECAST. THIS FOG WOULD BE
LARGELY HELPED BY THE WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE VERY COLD
LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. EXPECT THAT WARM MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
MARINE FOG.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKY IN PINNING
DOWN THE SMALLER DETAILS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS
TO QUICKLY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED OF EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS ...THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST (40-50KTS) INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BY THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. BEHIND THAT
CONVECTION...A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL TRYING TO TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING...THE DIMINISH THEM (AND
THUNDER CHANCES) IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND LARGELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
THINK BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES FOR THUNDER
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY TRICKY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE OF A BROAD BRUSHED LOOK AND HAVE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE CONVECTION
OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1
INCH...BUT PINNING THAT DOWN THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. AS
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THINK LARGEST THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND
MAYBE SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE GENERALLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE SPEED OF THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD MAKE FOR SOME WIND CONCERNS...IF (AND
THAT IS A BIG IF) IT CAN OVERCOME THE INVERSION AROUND 900MB AND
RESULTING LOW STRATUS OVER THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. WITH
SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-5C...SHOULD SEE A NICE MID MAY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHIFT EAST AND TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND ONLY BRING LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GEM ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SECOND WAVE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS WILL BE SEEN THIS THURSDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST BUT STILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT WE HAVE
FINALLY TRANSITIONED TOWARDS MORE MAY LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI AND MID CLDS ARND THIS FCST PERIOD WELL TO
THE N OF WARM FNT IN THE PLAINS. BUT DRY...STEADY ESE FLOW OF DRY
AIR OUT OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXITING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NE SHOULD
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN IF SOME -SHRA
MOVE INTO IWD/SAW LATE TNGT OR WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE SW FLANK OF
HI PRES RETREATING THRU ONTARIO AND IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS...EXPECT SLOWLY VEERING NE TO
SE WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TO DOMINATE INTO THU. AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WED NIGHT/THU...FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE
COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON
THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE E ON SUN AS THE HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING LO
MOVES TO THE E. NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS.
LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON
RIVER NEAR PARADISE.
WHILE WET WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...RAINFALL SHOULD AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
FALL OVER THE STURGEON RIVER BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. ADDING TO THIS
WILL BE THE FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT BEING SHOWN FROM
NOHRSC SET UP FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH
PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT PAINESDALE AND HERMAN. WILL SEE HOW THIS
SNOW MELT /GIVEN WARMER FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK/ IMPACTS
DOWNSTREAM RIVERS INCLUDING THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW COULD
MELT BY THIS WEEKEND. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT
DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER
LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE
ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE.
BACK TO THE WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
315 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER NEVADA WITH DIFFLUENT/
UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW OVER UT/WY...WITH HEALTHY TS ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN WY. NORTHERN BRANCH TROF OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND IS NOW NEAR JUDITH GAP...A FEATURE THAT WILL SUPPLY OUR
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR
DEEP ASCENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY AND HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PCPN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS...GREATEST IN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND JUST A BIT
LESS IN OUR EAST. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR S/SE
INTO THIS EVENING...WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 60F.
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH FROM CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL WY ALONG/NEAR SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED THERE.
A FEW INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS TO NOTE. FIRST IS THE AFTERNOON
TEMPS FROM CTB-GTF ARE COLDER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
21Z BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND NOTICE THE 32F READING AT MONARCH
CANYON AT 5200 FEET IN THE LITTLE BELTS INDICATIVE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION/LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT
IS THE DEWPT OF 24F AT CUT BANK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WET BULBING DOWN ONCE THAT AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED COLDER FASTER AT 850MB...SHOWING THE 0C LINE THRU JUDITH
GAP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BILLINGS BY 09Z. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE NORTH ASPECTS BEGINNING BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE BIG HORNS ARE
NOT OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED IN THIS EVENT W/ SOUTH FLOW ALOFT...BUT
STRONG ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ADVY SNOW AMTS LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SO MAIN ISSUE TODAY WAS TO WORK OUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH GREAT BASIN TROF LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW TO STALL OUT NEAR WEST
YELLOWSTONE...AGREED UPON BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT WE
WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ASCENT AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS IN OUR WEST EVEN AFTER PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY FOR LIVINGSTON AREA...SWEET GRASS
AND STILLWATER THRU TOMORROW...WITH EXPECTATION OF A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...PCPN WILL BE ABUNDANT TONIGHT BUT MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IN THIS AREA
TOMORROW...EAST OF AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW...SO NOT SURE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A SNOW ADVY FOR AREAS SE
OF BILLINGS INCLUDING SHERIDAN AND LAME DEER. THAT BEING SAID...
WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE PASSES SUCH AS ABERDEEN
HILL AND LAME DEER DIVIDE. WILL LET THE EVENING AND NIGHT SHIFTS
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS HERE TO SEE IF AN ADVY IS NEEDED...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW.
AS FOR BILLINGS...IT IS GOING TO SNOW THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.
SFC TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S BY TOMORROW MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S THRU THE AFTN. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASS IN THE CITY...AND A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE SURROUNDING HILLS...PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES. IF
TEMPS MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 20S WE COULD SEE MORE THAN
THIS...BUT NEITHER THE MODELS NOR UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THIS WILL
HAPPEN. SO WILL KEEP YELLOWSTONE COUNTY OUT OF A WINTER HIGHLIGHT
AT THIS TIME.
FOR THOSE AREAS RECEIVING SNOWFALL...IMPACTS WOULD INCLUDE TRAVEL
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PASSES....AND POSSIBLY STRESSED BUDDING
TREES FROM THE WET SNOW.
OUR FAR EAST MAY MIX WITH SNOW TOMORROW MORNING BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...IE FOR PLACES FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS EASTWARD...AND MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AND WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO STAY TO OUR EAST. AFTER A VERY CHILLY DAY
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND A COLD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS...TEMPS THURSDAY
WILL RISE TO THE 50S/NEAR 60...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH BEGINS
FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SIMILAR FEATURES AT THE 500MB
LEVEL...HOWEVER...SOME IMPORTANT THINGS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NW UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. ACTUALLY...MONTANA FALLS IN SOMEWHAT OF A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL VORT MAXES TO MAKE IT THROUGH
THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.
DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OR NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR
MOST DAYS...WITH THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN STORE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. EXPECTING
RAIN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH A
POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO SNOW DUE TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE...WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE OBSCURED BY A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH TOMORROW. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/038 030/057 039/067 043/061 039/057 040/058 040/058
++/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
LVM 032/038 027/060 034/063 036/057 037/055 036/053 036/056
++/O 61/B 14/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
HDN 037/040 032/057 033/068 039/063 034/060 040/059 040/060
++/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
MLS 038/044 035/057 035/067 043/061 038/059 039/058 040/059
99/O 32/W 02/T 44/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
4BQ 041/044 034/054 034/067 041/062 036/059 039/058 040/056
++/R 52/W 11/U 44/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
BHK 040/045 035/053 032/063 041/060 036/056 038/055 038/055
89/R 42/W 11/U 45/W 33/W 33/W 33/W
SHR 037/039 031/053 031/065 038/059 033/056 036/056 037/054
99/O 52/W 02/T 53/W 34/W 33/W 43/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 34-41-65.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 56-66-67.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
354 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GET WEDNESDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER
THE WEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WARM...+12C H7 TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED OVER KANSAS. AT H85...THERE
WAS SOME POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT OAX...HOWEVER IT WAS
FAIRLY DRY AT H85 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE MAP AT
20Z...CONTINUED TO SHOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S...HOWEVER...THE MID 80 HAD MADE IT INTO FALLS CITY.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THE WARM
FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD BE AROUND
LINCOLN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THERE IS SOME BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THE TRAJECTORY FOR THE BEST PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER
SOMETHING ISOLATED MAY TRY TO DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR OUT OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IF SOMETHING HIGH BASED DOES
DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY ISOLATED STORMS. FOR NOW...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA IS WHERE OUR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MENTIONED. THE
LATEST RAP IS HINTING AT SOMETHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VERY DRY AIR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RESULTING
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
RECORDS 95/96/99 OMAHA/LINCOLN/NORFOLK... BUT COULD GET CLOSE IF
FULL HEATING IS REALIZED. AS DISCUSSED BELOW...DUE TO THE
GREENESS...THE RFW WAS LIMITED TO THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN THE
DRIEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE RICH AIR RETURNING TO
EASTERN KANSAS AND A NARROW AREA MAKING IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA. DO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED. THERE IS A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGER
DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO FORM AT KOFK AFTER
08Z...AND PERHAPS IN THE KOMA AREA AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WE DO HAVE SEVERAL COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO BE REALIZED. THE
FUELS ARE THE WILDCARD FOR THIS FORECAST AND REALLY VARIES
DEPENDING ON THE LAND USE. PASTURES ARE GREENING UP AND CORN
STALKS MAY OR MAY NOT BE A FACTOR DUE TO RECENT PLANTING EFFORTS.
IN TALKING WITH EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
COUNTIES...CRP LANDS (CROP REDUCTION PROGRAM LAND) HAS GRASSES
THAT ARE 4 TO 6 FEET TALL AND ARE STILL BROWN...AND SLOW TO GREEN.
IT WAS NOTED THAT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALSO
HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN AS COUNTIES TO THE NORTH. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW OF OUR COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ051-065-
066-078-088-089.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.
TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 16 HOURS OF THE
TAF...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AND A POSSIBILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS 10-14Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE NOTED AT GRI THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT HOWEVER...STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE
CALL AT GRI AS THE BULK OF THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SITUATE
ITSELF NORTHWEST OF GRI...BUT MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO IMPACT GRI. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A CEILING AT
1500FT AGL IN THE TAF 10-14Z. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A
CEILING CLOSER TO 500FT AGL WILL BE REALIZED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SUCH CONDITIONS AND WILL DEFER TO
FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE INSERTION OF IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE TAF. INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE STRATUS AT GRI
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS AT GRI BY 14Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT BEGINS CLEARING THE AREA...AND THEN BECOME SUSTAINED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10KTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES SOMEWHAT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS/CLEARS THE AREA. WENT
AHEAD WITH 5SM 10-14Z...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS
AN IFR VISIBILITY COULD BE REALIZED. JUST LIKE THE IFR
CEILING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SUCH
CONDITIONS INTO THE TAF AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER POSSIBLE INSERTION OF AN IFR VISIBILITY INTO THE TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST WILL
DELIVER ANOTHER PUNCH OF SPRING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND
AS CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE AREA. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED TO 994MB AT 19Z
OVER SE COLORADO AND THE 19Z RAP INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
989MB BY 00Z. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING H5 UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NV.
SURFACE OBS AT KLVS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WIND ADVISORY A
COUPLE TIMES BUT SINCE ISOLD IN NATURE WILL NOT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF A
40-50KT 700-500MB JET SLIDES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NM. WILL PASS
ALONG WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS TO OVERNIGHT CREW.
ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS THERE ISNT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT. WPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF VALUES FOR 0.10 OR MORE DO SHOW VALUES AROUND 30
PCT OVER SW FACING SLOPES OF THE NW MTS WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM LIFTED
INDICES ARE NEAR -2C FOR TMRW AFTERNOON SO THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 AND 50 PCT RANGE BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. ALSO TOSSED IN DUST FOR THE NW PLATEAU. MAX TEMPS
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE WEST THEN 5 TO 15F BLW NORMAL FOR ALL
AREAS THURSDAY. IT WILL FEEL QUITE COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. AGAIN QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARM ADVECTION
THRU THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. 700MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR +12C WHICH IS NEAR THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR MID MAY. THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABV NORMAL AGAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS ALMOST COMICAL SO WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
HAVE UPGRADED ZONES 103 AND 107 TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106 AS A WATCH AND
LET THE STELLAR NIGHT CREW TAKE ONE MORE LOOK.
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY LESS WIND...THANKS TO A POTENT COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONLY MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WINDS
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AND BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE EASILY REACHED OVER MOST CENTRAL AND ALL EASTERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER EVERYWHERE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE FAR EAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. HAINES VALUES TO BE HIGH
TO MODERATE. AREAS TO THE WEST ARE MORE IN THE GREY AREA AS TO HOW
TO TREAT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MANY HOURS...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN ZONES 103 AND 107.
WITH HAINES VALUES STILL PARTLY IN THE HIGH CATEGORY IN ZONES 103
AND 10 WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THESE ZONES TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE ZONE 106...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS
A WATCH. CERTAINLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT LOW TO MODERATE HAINES VALUES AND HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BRING A MIXED SIGNAL AS TO JUST HOW CRITICAL THIS AREA
WILL BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LET NIGHT CREW MAKE THE CALL ON
ZONE 106. WILL NEED TO FACTOR IN HOW INCREDIBLY DRY IT HAS BEEN
LATELY AS WELL. AS FOR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO FINALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS. IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. A FEW RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
BUT NO WETTING PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NOT MUCH WIND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
SATURDAY AND LEVELING OFF ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE DRY
ASIDE FROM A NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHOWER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE
BULLISH WITH A TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. JUST WISHFUL THINKING AT THIS POINT.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO HEAD SLOWLY EAST. NEAR SFC WINDS
STRONGER TODAY THAN MONDAY. SW WIND GUSTS OF 28-30 KTS AT
FMN...ABQ...AEG AND SAF. SW WIND GUSTS OF 35-37 KTS OTHER TAF
SITES. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO DUST IN ANY TAF FORECAST BUT
COULD BE SOME MODEST RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY FOR LVS...TCC AND ROW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. STRONG WINDS AGAIN WED OVER
THE E...LOWER SPEEDS IN THE WEST.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 41 63 37 63 / 0 20 10 10
DULCE........................... 31 60 27 58 / 5 30 20 20
CUBA............................ 35 64 31 56 / 0 10 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 34 59 31 61 / 0 5 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 29 56 28 56 / 0 5 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 33 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 38 58 33 57 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 35 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 33 56 26 49 / 5 40 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 61 35 54 / 0 5 0 20
PECOS........................... 41 61 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 66 28 57 / 0 5 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 34 51 25 43 / 0 10 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 57 26 49 / 0 5 0 20
TAOS............................ 33 65 29 56 / 0 5 0 20
MORA............................ 40 63 32 55 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 38 69 34 62 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 42 61 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 67 36 60 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 69 42 63 / 0 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 72 44 67 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 73 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 73 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 71 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 72 42 66 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 49 74 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 66 37 60 / 0 5 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 46 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 65 34 59 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 64 35 59 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 70 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 66 40 60 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 44 68 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 41 74 36 64 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 42 72 37 64 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 51 78 44 71 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 47 71 41 66 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 53 77 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 76 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 83 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 81 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 81 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 79 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 85 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 76 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 70 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 10-12C...WITH WAA HELPING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE M50S-NEAR 70...DESPITE RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER NRN NY.
INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXISTS FRIDAY NGT
INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN CANADA AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NGT. RAINFALL
MAY BECM MODERATE AT TIMES AS WEAK FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
SETS UP...BEST SEEN AT LOW TO MID LVLS. DEPARTING 850MB JET ON
SATURDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH PSBL UPPER LVL JET TO OUR N/NW AIDING
IN POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER.
COLD FRONT PICKS UP MOMENTUM ON SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY. SLGT RIDGING
EXPECTED SUNDAY NGT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLN...WITH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
MONDAY AFTN...WHILE ECMWF HAS DRIER PATTERN WITH RIDGE PERSISTING
OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS THRU SATURDAY NGT...BUT UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS MAX TEMPS
NEAR 70 IN THE VALLEYS AND M50S-M60S ELSEWHERE...AND MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM M40S-M50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW LOW LVL CLOUDS FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT
KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE BKN LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS PUSH SEWD...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-16KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THIS
AFTN WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BCMG
LGT TO CALM ACCOMPANIED BY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL RECOVER BTWN
5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 13Z. N-NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST...ALBEIT LGT. FEW-SCT MID LVL CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR PSBL
IN SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA PRODUCING RAIN...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
PSBL. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS EWD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT STILL DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS
DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THUS HAVE
GONE WITH A DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW LOW LVL CLOUDS FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT
KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE BKN LOW-MID LVL CLOUDS PUSH SEWD...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-16KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THIS
AFTN WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BCMG
LGT TO CALM ACCOMPANIED BY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL RECOVER BTWN
5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 13Z. N-NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST...ALBEIT LGT. FEW-SCT MID LVL CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR PSBL
IN SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA PRODUCING RAIN...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
PSBL. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS EWD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A FURTHER MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AND THEN AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE WITH GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
500MB VORT CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS VT
AND NERN NY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR HIGHER
SUMMIT FLURRIES (20% POPS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON BALANCE. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN -2C TO -4C RANGE AND
ONLY LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 MPH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT LATER ON THIS MORNING...AND THEN 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTN WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC RIDGE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD...AND HELP RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WIND TO 5 MPH OR LESS. WILL SEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
WITHIN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR THE PURPOSES OF
OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLD...SO WILL KEEP FROST MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ONLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WED THRU THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIR MASS WILL MODERATE
NICELY AS WELL...WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN VCNTY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH NW WINDS 5-10 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT...PRODUCING FILTERED SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT STILL DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS
DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THUS HAVE
GONE WITH A DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET HAVE
ERODED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THIS LAYER NOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 10000 FEET IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WILL BE EXITING LATER THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF UNDER 10 KNOTS.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH NEWD WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM TUESDAY...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR WERE RECORDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH BEAUFORT
AND MOREHEAD CITY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. DOWN IN WILMINGTON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHED 91 DEGREES TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE 3 KM HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 03Z TO 04Z. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. GIVEN DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ANY STORMS THAT DO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA COULD BE
LOCALLY STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. DESPITE
THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS AND BNDRY
LAYER MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS UP RANGING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
THE OUTER BANKS BY DAYBREAK. FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ON
WED AS TD`S INCREASE AND SEA BREEZE WORKS ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE
COAST. OTHERWISE AFTER A MAINLY CLOUDY START, EXPECT LOTS OF SUN
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 80S AGAIN OVER SW AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO
BREAK WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WAVY STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT
NORTH WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND A GOOD
SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 655 PM TUE...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES LATE WITH BEST CHANCE OF IFR SRN TIER NEAR OAJ. MDL TIME
SECTIONS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CIGS WL LINGER WELL INTO
WED MORN WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
DRIFTS INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE/ENE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT MORE SE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS VEER E TO SE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE MARINE AREA WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
10-15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT THRU WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/BTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE SHORE VERSUS 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALL
THANKS TO LAKE ERIE.
LATEST HRRR MODEL IS JUST NOW COMING IN AND IT INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 08Z UNTIL 13Z
TO 14Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. SO THAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL NOT PROBABLY ONLY 5
TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. JET ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
HINGE ON THE LOCATIONS OF ANY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS
CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WAS SUPPOSED TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STALL
ACROSS NRN OHIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT BECOMES HARDER TO TIME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN AS THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC THROUGH MONDAY.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE OFFERING A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH EACH
OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST IS RATHER VAGUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS AND TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CIRRUS TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE TIMING OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE TOUGH...THEY WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 1 TO
4 FEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE HIGHEST WAVES SHIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTH SHORE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IF WINDS END UP BEING STRONGER OR THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO
SHIFT NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND WAVES
DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES LIKE
KOKC/KOUN/KLAW/KSPS. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP... VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST CONCERN IS AGAIN FIRE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS 24
HOURS AGO. UNFORTUNATELY... THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN MANY AREAS
AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MIX OUT QUICKLY IN THE WEST. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE MOISTURE MIX OUT. NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A CAP ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THAT WOULD
PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OUT THAT WE WILL SEE TO THE WEST. RAP AND
HRRR SUGGEST MIXING OUT FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING MAY PROVIDE
SOME ANSWERS. IF THIS ISN`T ENOUGH... MANY MODELS /NAM.. ECMWF..
RAP/ SHOW QPF SIGNALS BY 00Z. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BUT MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE EXPECTED
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FORECAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE ASSOCIATED RISK
OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING IN SOME AREAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT TO THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW. AGAIN THERE IS A
QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT. HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW AGAIN IN THE WEST WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL NEARLY CERTAINTY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW EVENING AND EXPANDING OVERNIGHT.
AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT HOW THE ATMOSPHERE AND/OR CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLY THURSDAY CONVECTION. EVEN AFTER THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PLAINS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS
INTO A ZONAL PATTERN AND WE KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. .26.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 67 88 66 / 10 0 20 40
HOBART OK 100 65 94 62 / 10 10 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 69 93 67 / 10 10 30 40
GAGE OK 99 60 95 60 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 98 69 90 68 / 10 0 20 40
DURANT OK 88 66 84 69 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>029-
033>039-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
30/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Expect hot and dry weather this afternoon and a chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A dryline was located along a
Fredrick, OK to Abilene to Sonora line at 20Z. Latest SPC
mesoanaylsis indicates weak instability(MLCAPES 500 to 1000 J/KG)
ahead of the dryline over the eastern part of our area. The
remaining convective inhibition or low level inversion may be
erased for isolated storms to develop mainly after 22Z across the
northern Heartland and eastern Big Country. the HRRR convective
allowing model has been showing isolated storms developing the
past several hourly runs. High LCLs and an inverted-v sounding
profiles favor strong gusty winds and hail with the stronger
storms. Also, storms will produce dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Any storms that do develop will exit the area or
quickly dissipate by 02Z. The rest of tonight will see low level
southerly flow and low level moisture returning. The dryline will
retreat to just west of our area by 12Z Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be in the 60s to around 70.
For Wednesday, the morning looks quiet with low clouds across
much of the area. Low clouds will break up across much of the area
by early afternoon. Aloft, a strong upper level trough will be
located over the southern Rockies. A dryline will move slowly east
to along a Haskell to San Angelo line by late in the afternoon.
Low level convergence along the dryline and increasing large scale
ascent from approaching trough will cause isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop across much of West Central Texas mainly
after 20Z. The combination of some instability(MLCAPES of 1500 to
2000 J/KG) and 0-6KM bulk shear of 45 to 50 knots, will result in
some storms being severe. The main threats will be large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Highs will
be 90 to 95.
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
By Wednesday night, the large upper level trough currently near
Las Vegas will be moving east through the desert southwest toward
west Texas. This feature will bring synoptic scale upward motion
with it into west and west central Texas from Wednesday evening
into Thursday.
Have generally bumped PoPs up again with this forecast, as we get
closer to the event, and become more confident in thunderstorms
taking place. In addition, have added the mention of severe
thunderstorms to the forecast for Wednesday evening, carrying over
the mention from the afternoon. With 0-6km bulk shear values of
40-55 knots, and SFC and mixed layer CAPE values ranging from near
1000 J/kg to as high as 1500 J/kg, there will be enough
instability, and storm organization carried over into the evening
hours for the threat of severe weather to be possible. As with the
previous period, the main concerns will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the event evolves overnight, the instability will wane,
and thus have the mention of severe weather in the forecast only
through 06Z. In addition to the severe weather possibility, some
of the thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, and localized
flooding will be possible, mainly in urban areas.
On Thursday, we will likely continue to see a broken line of
showers with embedded thunderstorms for the eastern half of the
area, especially during the morning hours as steering flow remain
southwest, making the exit of precipitation a little slow.
Severe weather concern will be limited with this mainly morning
activity.
One more weak shortwave will move through the area Friday
afternoon and evening, possibly providing one more shot at
precipitation for southeastern areas Friday afternoon and night.
Expect temperatures to continue to be above normal through the
forecast period. Thursday and Friday will be the cooler days
averaging mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will
quickly warm back into the mid 90s for the weekend.
Have not made any significant changes beyond the end of this week
as there is still a lot of uncertainty associated with the
forecast for early next week. The GFS is much more progressive and
weaker with an upper level system, sending a cold front into the
area Sunday night whereas the ECMWF is slower and stronger, and
waits until Monday evening to send a cold front into the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening, generally west of a Haskell to Bronte line. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM across the western Big
Country and Northern Concho Valley due to RH values of 7 to 12
percent and southwest winds around 20 mph. Also, ERC values are at
record levels across this area. An increase in low level moisture
late tonight should result in RH values recovering to 60 to 80
percent across much of West Central Texas. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon west of a Haskell to
Ozona line due to RH values of 15 to 25 percent and wind speeds of
15 mph. Thunderstorms will bring potential wetting rains across
mainly northern and eastern areas Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 94 67 87 61 / 5 30 50 30 10
San Angelo 68 94 68 91 57 / 5 20 40 20 10
Junction 64 91 70 87 66 / 10 20 50 40 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...Sterling...
Taylor.
&&
$$
21/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CIGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
A TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WEATHER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 13-23 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A
STRONG LLJ TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR
40 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL
RETURN TO KACT AROUND 06Z/1 AM CDT AND THE METROPLEX AROUND 08Z/3
AM CDT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS A HIGHLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. HOWEVER...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 90 KNOT JET
NOSING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS SAME REGION WILL SEE THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON SO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY HIGH RES MODEL THAT REALLY KEYS ON
THIS AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE. THE INVERTED V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE
WEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CAP
SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BREEZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.
THE CURRRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW SO WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A STRONG THERMAL 850MB RIDGE TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DRIVE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK WEST TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES EAST. RICHER
SURFACE DEW PTS 55 TO 60 ARE NOW SURGING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
AND EXPECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA...BUT NOT OVERLY DRY. NEVERTHELESS...THE HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE OUT OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN
THE SURFACE DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED...VERY HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH VER GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 10 KFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY SUNSET AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A STRONG LLJ EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE PROGRESSIVELY EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH RICHER MOISTURE POOLING
JUST EAST OF THAT FEATURE. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 95-100
DEGREES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
INCREASING MOISTURE HELPS HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY AND JUXTAPOSE OVER THE DEEPENING SURFACE
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF THE CWA FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAX HEATING. IN ADDITION...
LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM WILL COINCIDE WITH WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
LOWER STORM BASES WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING
30-40 KTS WITH NEAR SURFACE SHEAR 20-25 KTS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE MAIN THREATS TO REMAIN VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATING STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT
THE THREAT IS NOT A WIDESPREAD ONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED
CHANCES INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR W/NW COUNTIES
BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND SUNSET AND WENT AHEAD AN INSERTED SEVERE
INTO THE FORECAST WORDING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS FALLS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION
LIFTING/MOISTENING AND WEAKENING FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORM OR EVEN STORM CLUSTERS...AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE DRYLINE/SURFACE
TROUGH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATER MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ALL THE WHILE...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOWER AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES WILL
SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA...THUS THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM 0.50-1 INCH WEST...TO BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES EAST WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...THUS SOME RUN
OFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THE
SYSTEM AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EXPECTED. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES
ON SYSTEM SPEED AND TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW SLOWER AND
WETTER...WHILE THE ECWMF...WRF AND NAM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER AND NOT AS HEAVY WITH SOME
OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THEN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AND FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FAST LOWERING
TRENDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT
APPEARS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH MORE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING OVERHEAD...HAVE LEFT LOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. A LULL WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...BUT DRY. HAVE LEFT LOW CONFIDENCE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE NORTH
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...SO DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO RAIN EVERY DAY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK AND THIS COMING
WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 67 88 70 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 90 66 87 69 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
PARIS, TX 85 62 83 67 80 / 0 5 5 20 70
DENTON, TX 90 67 87 70 82 / 0 5 10 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 87 64 86 71 81 / 0 5 5 20 70
DALLAS, TX 91 68 88 71 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 87 65 86 70 82 / 0 5 5 20 70
CORSICANA, TX 88 65 87 71 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
TEMPLE, TX 88 65 87 69 85 / 0 5 5 20 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 65 92 68 86 / 5 5 20 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS A HIGHLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. HOWEVER...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 90 KNOT JET
NOSING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS SAME REGION WILL SEE THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON SO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY HIGH RES MODEL THAT REALLY KEYS ON
THIS AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE. THE INVERTED V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE
WEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CAP
SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BREEZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.
THE CURRRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW SO WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
VAD WIND PROFILES FROM AREA RADARS INDICATE SSW WINDS OF 50+ KT
AT 020-030...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS SURGING NORTH
IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY REACHED KACT
AND APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEX
FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER 12Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z IN
THE METROPLEX DUE TO EXPECTED TAPERING OF THE STRATUS DECK THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. OCCASIONAL CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE A REPEAT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE A TAD
EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014/
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A STRONG THERMAL 850MB RIDGE TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DRIVE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK WEST TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES EAST. RICHER
SURFACE DEW PTS 55 TO 60 ARE NOW SURGING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
AND EXPECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA...BUT NOT OVERLY DRY. NEVERTHELESS...THE HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE OUT OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN
THE SURFACE DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED...VERY HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH VER GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 10 KFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY SUNSET AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A STRONG LLJ EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE PROGRESSIVELY EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH RICHER MOISTURE POOLING
JUST EAST OF THAT FEATURE. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 95-100
DEGREES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
INCREASING MOISTURE HELPS HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY AND JUXTAPOSE OVER THE DEEPENING SURFACE
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF THE CWA FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAX HEATING. IN ADDITION...
LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM WILL COINCIDE WITH WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN
LOWER STORM BASES WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING
30-40 KTS WITH NEAR SURFACE SHEAR 20-25 KTS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE MAIN THREATS TO REMAIN VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATING STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...BUT
THE THREAT IS NOT A WIDESPREAD ONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED
CHANCES INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR W/NW COUNTIES
BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND SUNSET AND WENT AHEAD AN INSERTED SEVERE
INTO THE FORECAST WORDING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS FALLS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION
LIFTING/MOISTENING AND WEAKENING FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORM OR EVEN STORM CLUSTERS...AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE DRYLINE/SURFACE
TROUGH EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATER MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ALL THE WHILE...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOWER AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES WILL
SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA...THUS THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FROM 0.50-1 INCH WEST...TO BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES EAST WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...THUS SOME RUN
OFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THE
SYSTEM AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EXPECTED. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES
ON SYSTEM SPEED AND TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW SLOWER AND
WETTER...WHILE THE ECWMF...WRF AND NAM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER AND NOT AS HEAVY WITH SOME
OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THEN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AND FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FAST LOWERING
TRENDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT
APPEARS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH MORE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING OVERHEAD...HAVE LEFT LOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. A LULL WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...BUT DRY. HAVE LEFT LOW CONFIDENCE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE NORTH
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...SO DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO RAIN EVERY DAY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK AND THIS COMING
WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 67 88 70 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 90 66 87 69 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
PARIS, TX 85 62 83 67 80 / 0 5 5 20 70
DENTON, TX 90 67 87 70 82 / 0 5 10 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 87 64 86 71 81 / 0 5 5 20 70
DALLAS, TX 91 68 88 71 83 / 0 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 87 65 86 70 82 / 0 5 5 20 70
CORSICANA, TX 88 65 87 71 84 / 0 5 5 20 60
TEMPLE, TX 88 65 87 69 85 / 0 5 5 20 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 65 92 68 86 / 5 5 20 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
SOLAR HEATING...STRONG CAP THIS AFTERNOON HINDERING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE HEALTHY CAP. LIKE YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION
OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FOR VIRGINIA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND GOOD LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RNK
WRFARW DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA AND DROP SOUTHEAST. HRRR SHOWED SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
WAA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT CAP
MAY HOLD AND LIMITED CONVECTION. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE H8 WARN FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. GOOD LAPSE RATE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CAP IS EVEN STRONGER...ELECTED TO KEEP
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VARY FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUBJECT FORECAST AREA TO A
SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE 582 TO 588 DECAMETER
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
CANADA TO FLORIDA. THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
THEN BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY AS A MID CONUS TROF MOVES EAST.
850 MB TEMPS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED NEAR 18 DEG C. THIS ALONE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. AN ADDED BOOST WILL OCCUR
FROM ADIABATIC WARMING...WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AS THE AIR PASSES OVER AND DOWN THE MTNS. THE NET EFFECT
WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL TEST THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
FRIDAY AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID CONUS TROUGH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY WILL SQUELCH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CUMULUS...BUT THINK ANY THREAT OF
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE UNLESS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN MID CONUS FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE MODELS
REMOTELY LOOK SIMILAR...THEN THEY DIVERGE RESULTING IN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE AND
AND FAVORS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK VS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.
FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS BRING SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THIS RESULTS IN LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS THEN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS SATURDAYS FRONT WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
GETTING CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN A WETTER
SOLUTION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL WE MIX OUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THE CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL
ENTERTAIN A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH TRENDED THE
FORECAST CLOUDIER AND COOLER TO START THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY MID
WEEK...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER WARM SURGE
PRIOR TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT WILL
ALSO ADD KLWB. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN JEOPARDY
THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE IN THE EAST.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 8TH...
ROANOKE......94/1940
LYNCHBURG....94/1940
DANVILLE.....92/1986
BLACKSBURG...85/2000
BLUEFIELD....84/2004
LEWISBURG....82/2000
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE CAP KEPT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIKE
YESTERDAY...SWODY1 ADDED THE MENTION OF A SEE TEXT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FOR VIRGINIA.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
HEALTHY LAPSE RATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED LESS COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL AROUND 00Z
BEFORE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TOWARDS SATELLITE IMAGES...INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE COMES OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS FEATURE ARRIVES IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST IN STABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND AREA IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK CAP.
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO SOUTH OF
MARTINSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
TODAY THEN WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR AND WEDGE WILL HOLD
IN THE FAR EAST EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
LARGE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE COOLER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A FEW CAVEATS. MAX T ON
WEDNESDAY CHALLENGING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HIGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DELMARVA SUCH THAT SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
PERSISTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MORE SW/WSW COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS SE WEST VA...CREATES SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND PERHAPS ROANOKE VALLEY...THUS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES MAY KEEP MAX T COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THESE
PARTS...WHEREAS THE EXTREME SW VA COUNTIES AND NEAR BLF SHOULD BE
IMMUNE AND PERHAPS GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE WEDGE SEEMS
TO BE GONE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EASILY THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH 90F ATTAINABLE IN THE CITIES. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WITH WINDS BACKING A TAD AS A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE FROM THE ARKLATEX...STORMS LOOK MOST
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS A COMMON
DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS IN THIS REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH WPC AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALLING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE SMOKEYS. THE PATTERN
FAVORS INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK WILL BE NORTH
OF US FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID MISS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING OVER THE
EAST WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS...FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT
NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH LOWER POPS IN BETWEEN. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ALL FRI-MON...BUT SOME DAYS
COULD BE WETTER THAN OTHERS...SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
FRONT REMAINS LOCKED IN TODAY WITH MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
STUCK OVER THE EAST. LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT SUGGESTS ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF WILL BE NEAR KROA AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT WILL
ALSO ADD KLWB. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
MAY EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTH AND SE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF LOWER CIGS ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUTTING A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CU FIELDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
329 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITED SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER MUCH BETTER CLEARING IS NOW SEEN OVER THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE LARGELY IN THE 40S SO THERE IS
DECENT LLVL MOISTURE. WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CONVERSE COUNTY. THE RUC INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS. THE HRRR MODELS HAS ALSO BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A DISCRETE CELL JUST TO THE NORTH OF CONVERSE
COUNTY. NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE) IS FCSTED
OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT
STRONG STORMS OUT THERE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN
BY LATE EVENING. ONE MORE MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER UTAH. SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATE WED MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEATHER CONCERN FROM LATE MORNING WED THROUGH THE AFTN WILL BE ON
THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. CAPE
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 0-3 KM HELICITY IS CLOSE TO 300 ALONG 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 KTS. THINKING THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO WITH THE GOOD LLVL
SHEAR. THE WINDOW FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD NOT EXTEND MUCH LATER THAN
THE EARLY AFTN HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTN AND
INSTABILITY IS ON THE DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IT PUSHES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON WED EVENING AND
THEN BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WED
NIGHT. A TROWAL IS SHOWN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 00-12Z THURS. EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION
IS DEPICTED LATE WED AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WY...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER
06Z. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF EVENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS. HPC HAS THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TO SNOW COULD OCCUR AFTER AROUND 09Z
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT OR SO. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
THE WARMEST IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AS IT KEEPS SFC WET BULB
TEMPS ABOVE 37F TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WED NIGHT
...WHEREAS THE NAM IS CLOSE TO FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD QG ASCENT WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD
A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO
EAST CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 12-18Z THU. WITH 700-850 TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND
-5 C...WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. NOT THINKING RATES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE DEEPER COLD
AIR. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTN...WITH PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT WITH A FEW
NUISANCE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN. DESPITE SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. GFS CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C/KM...A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.
BIG QUESTIONS COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW
AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO. LATEST GEM SHOWS A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE...
SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 12Z GFS TELLS A DIFFERENT TALE...WITH A
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN
THESE DIFFERENCES...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER MAJOR STORM
LATE IN THE PERIOD IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY. SNOW WOULD AGAIN BE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS H7 TEMPS PLUNGE AS LOW AS -10C. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE A
GOOD BET LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FCST HIGHS
ON SUN AFTN AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT DO NOT LEND
CREDENCE TO HIGHS NEAR 60F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW TRYING TO GET
ORGANIZED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. DEWPOINT BOUNDARY HAS ALSO SHIFTED
WEST OF CHEYENNE DURING THE LAST HOUR. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP WAS
SHOWING THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THESE CLOUDS ERODE. IF THE CLOUDS
DO ERODE...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING LESS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WE MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. WE DID NOT
FORECAST ANY IFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO LIMITED WARM AIR
ALOFT. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 10-15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH WITH THE GREENUP IN PROGRESS. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT. LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SURPASS
FLOOD STAGE ON THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER AT SAVERY BY LATE TONIGHT AND
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SLOW SNOW MELT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH