Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/05/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
833 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014 FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CIRRUS SHIELD WAS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NO SIGN OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT YET. THEREFORE BROAD BRUSHED THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBS THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED GOOD MIXING AGAIN TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROUNDING THE TOP OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS AXIS STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEST OF THIS AXIS...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS PREVAIL. EAST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS COOLER...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION. MOISTURE OUT THERE APPEARS SHALLOW AND THE LAYER ABOVE THIS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER WITH WESTERLY FLOW. DRY LINE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION/T-STORMS. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LATEST RAP SHOWS WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SPREADING EAST WITH THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MEANWHILE WARM AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES ACROSS SOUTH PARK...FIREWEATHER ZONE 241...MET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA A FEW HOURS AGO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD AGAIN SEE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT. NAM SYNTHETIC IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS WITH THE LONG FETCH OF HIGH ALTITUDE WATER VAPOR STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD HANGING OVERHEAD. MODELS...NOTABLY THE RAP...SHOWS THE SFC TROUGH BACKING UP THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS GREELEY AND PLATTEVILLE BY MID- MORNING. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH LOW 40S DEWPTS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS WEAK SURGE. NAM SHOWS THE MTN WAVE CLOUD MOVING NORTH UP INTO WYOMING AROUND MIDDAY WITH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO BE 1-3 DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014 THE FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROF INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP OVER COLORADO ON LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST. THERE STILL WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014 WINDS ARE TRANSITIONING TO DRAINAGE BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY IS TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND COULD STILL REACH KDEN BEFORE WASHING OUT. WINDS WOULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST IF SURGE MAKES IT... OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A TRANSITION TO NORMAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH 06Z. ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 14000 FT AGL. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM...ENTREKIN AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE... 1. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 12 AM...INITIALIZING WITH 05/01Z OBSERVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ON TRACK. 2. INITIALIZED WITH CALM WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ONGOING FORECASTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PACKAGE. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED S/SW OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A SYNOPTIC DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW...PINNING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON...AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL LIKELY PUSH TO THE BEACHES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER N/NE SC WEDNESDAY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. THUS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLIER AND WILL PUSH INLAND. THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON AREA BEACHES TO THE 70S AND SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED WITH HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F WILL STILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70F ON THE BEACHES WILL BE COMMON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND...PUSHING A A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE SLOWED IF DEEP LAYER RIDGING PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EVEN SO...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 18Z MODEL AND SHORT TERM RAP MODEL DATA. EXPECT PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND PARTS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED S/SW OF THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TOWARD THE SW BOTH AFTERNOON. ALSO...04/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE OF SW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
1007 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .DISCUSSION...COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST. THE MORNING WEATHER BALLOON FROM BOISE SHOWING ABOUT 5F DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE LAST 24H BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE FOR THIS AFTERNOONS HIGHS. ONLY UPDATE TO FORECAST WAS TO SCALE BACK THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING QPF ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING TO MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS RIDGE COLLAPSES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF LIFT THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS FORMING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS CLOUD COVER AND WINDS KEEP THE TEMP FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIMBS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVES BRING LIFT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT IT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS AGREE. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. A COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD IS ON THE WAY FOR THE COMING WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INLAND ON MONDAY...DROPPING MAX TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND SPREADING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...DG AVIATION.....JT PREV SHORT TERM...SP PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... 304 PM CDT SYNOPSIS...WINDS TURN OFF OF THE LAKE TOMORROW LEADING TO A COOLER START TO THE WEEK. WE START A WARMING TREND MONDAY WITH STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THROUGH TONIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE GULF. A CLOSED LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHILE A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MIXING EASES. AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECTING CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ROTATE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. IT IS RATHER DRY OUT THERE RIGHT NOW WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 30+ DEGREES SO THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN OFF OF THE LAKE AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND WILL SEE AMPLE LAKE COOLING. HAVE MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK VORT STREAMER TRAVELS DOWN THE RIDGE AND OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIP TO FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSIENT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS OCCURRING AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE...BUT THE WARM UP BEGINS FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN VERY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKE. GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT LYING SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURRING SO KEPT MONDAY DRY. EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE GULF OPENING UP MID WEEK. A SECOND SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND ITS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS FEATURES 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PW VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO COULD SEE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 50 KT WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. THEREFORE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WITHOUT A CLEAR SOURCE OF FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED CAPPING ON THURSDAY BUT OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WILL NOTE THAT THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN WHAT THE GFS FEATURED YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE CONSISTENT CAP...HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT KEPT POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 80S BY THURSDAY. WINDS TURN SW THURSDAY SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY LAKE COOLING. COOLING LOOKS LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. * NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. * PERIOD OF SHRA POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER AND LOCATION OF TERMINALS ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS/GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THEN SAGS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHWEST BY MORNING INITIALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM WINDS...DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP PER VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PREVALENT 6000-8000 FT DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALOFT. VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH BANDED COVERAGE PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT. BANDS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT NARROW...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IS HIGH...IT IS SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND COVERAGE AT INDIVIDUAL POINT TERMINALS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND CEILINGS/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. SHOWER THREAT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA COVERAGE/EXACT TIMING AND TIMING OF SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. MONDAY...SLGT CHC FOR SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...CHC FOR TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHC FOR TSRA. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. STILL THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY TRENDS DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO START TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST FLOW FRESHENING UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS OCCURS. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 248 PM CDT Sat May 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 235 PM CDT Sat May 3 2014 SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Weak cold front currently located just to our northwest will swing through the forecast area tonight and be located along the Ohio Valley into early next week. The main forecast concern will be with any rain chances associated along and behind the frontal boundary as a couple of weak upper level waves track southeast over the lower Great Lakes through Monday. Models in decent agreement with respect to the frontal position to our south and timing of shortwave energy tracking to our north over the next couple of days with a NAM-WRF and ECMWF preference this forecast period. Frontal boundary forecast to track southeast through our area tonight with forecast soundings showing not much support for any rainfall of significant tonight. Band of mid level clouds will track across the area overnight but low levels look a bit too dry to support any mention of rain overnight. A bit of a concern that some of the hi- res model simulations suggest a band of showers developing this evening, probably associated with the mid level clouds now over western Iowa, and then tracks the rain east-southeast across parts of the forecast area overnight. Other than an isolated report of some light rain coming out of cloud decks of 10,000 feet or higher, have not seen any persistent reports of rain coming out of the cloud deck to our west. Based on the present movement of the weak echo returns to our west, will include the chance for light rain/sprinkles this evening across the west. Front should settle over the Ohio Valley on sunday with another fast moving wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft. A little better lift associated with this feature on Sunday with models also showing some fairly decent isent ascent and lowering pressure deficits across our area, especially across our north where POPs will be in the 25-35 percent range into the afternoon hours. Models still depicting some isent ascent Sunday evening north of the surface boundary before weakening overnight. Most of the lift associated with the upper wave should be to our east by mid afternoon or early evening so will keep the low POPs going untii mid-afternoon until the threat shifts off to our east. Once the wave shifts away from the area Sunday night into Monday, the front will get a shove further to the south during the day Monday as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes with upper level heights slowly building across the Midwest. This will bring more seasonable temperatures to our area into Tuesday. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday A more typical pattern for the second week of May as upper level ridging builds across the southeast U.S. in response to a western U.S. trof that will shift slowly east bringing above normal temps and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday night and Friday. The frontal boundary that was lying well to our south early in the week, should shift north as a warm front late Tuesday night and be north of our area by Wednesday evening with the main focus for showers and thunderstorms along and to the north of the warm front, and along the eastward advancing cold front, well out to our west thru Thursday. As the main upper level energy swings northeast out of the southern Plains late Thursday, we should start to see an increasing threat for showers and storms in our area Thursday night, especially across the west, and over the entire area on Friday. As the warm front lifts north across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, we will continue to include some low chance POPs north but models continue to trend further north with the better rain chances as the front retreats north. Based on the 12z timing off the ECMWF, cold frontal passage looks to occur in our area on Friday with the better rain chances shifting east and southeast as the cold front and Pacific air mass tracks across the Midwest. Smith && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1251 PM CDT Sat May 3 2014 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. A weak upper-level disturbance will spread mid-level clouds across the area by late this afternoon through the evening hours. NAM forecast soundings show 12000ft ceilings arriving at KPIA by around 22z, spreading eastward to KCMI by 00z. While some high-res models such as the HRRR suggest the potential for a few light showers/sprinkles, think airmass will remain too dry below 700mb to support any precip. Will therefore keep forecast dry, with only a mid-level overcast this evening. Clouds will clear from west to east overnight. After that, another fast-moving wave will approach from the northwest on Sunday. As has been the case with the past several model runs, the best focus for lower clouds and showers will remain north of the central Illinois terminals. Will bring mid-clouds back to the I-74 TAF sites Sunday morning, with mostly clear skies persisting further south at both KSPI and KDEC. Gusty W/NW winds this afternoon will decrease and eventually become NE late tonight into Sunday after a frontal boundary passes through the area. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
246 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... 324 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...PATCHY FROST MONDAY MORNING...COOL/DRY EASTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT QUITE A COLD FRONT AS NO TEMP DROP...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AND SKIES ARE CLEARING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST TIMING WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSE TO SUNSET/EARLY EVENING AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND OPTED TO STAY DRY WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE DAY. A BIT STRONGER WAVE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT/AXIS IS STILL SHIFTING AND COULD BE SOMEWHAT NARROW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED ON THE LOT CWA. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT MORE AS WELL AS SKY COVER BUT TRENDS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON LOOK ON TRACK. AND AS A RESULT...WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER. AS THIS PRECIP SUNDAY IS ENDING...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY TO THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SETUP ISN/T PERFECT...WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP OFF ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW LOW TEMPS MAY DROP IS FAIRLY LOW FROM THIS DISTANCE BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING THAT MENTION IN ANY OTHER FORECASTS/PRODUCTS...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TEMP TRENDS. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE HERE REMAINS VERY LOW FOR BOTH LOCATION AND TIMING AND OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE BRIEF/LIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES PREVAILING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WITH THE LARGE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES... SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WEST TOWARD THE AREA AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH DAYS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. THERMALLY...TUESDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN MONDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS THOUGH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE EASIER TO WARM WITH SUNSHINE. SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST IL TO MID 60S SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT WARMED TEMPS 6 TO 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO COOL. IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER. WITH A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SEEM TO HAVE A GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ITS A BIT EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS PATTERN BUT THE BEST CHANCE WOULD MOST LIKELY BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THAT TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN FROM THIS DISTANCE. AS FOR HIGHS...STILL SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT ANY CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD INHIBIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH AND THUS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...IL LAKESHORE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BUT EXPECT MID 70S FROM A RFD/DPA/GYY LINE SOUTH WITH AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL IL LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO BE WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY....HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP TO AROUND 80/LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE. LATEST ECMWF AND GEM TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE VALUES COULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE A RATHER WINDY DAY AS WELL. CMS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. * NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. * PERIOD OF SHRA POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER AND LOCATION OF TERMINALS ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS/GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THEN SAGS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHWEST BY MORNING INITIALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM WINDS...DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP PER VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PREVALENT 6000-8000 FT DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALOFT. VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH BANDED COVERAGE PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT. BANDS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT NARROW...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IS HIGH...IT IS SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND COVERAGE AT INDIVIDUAL POINT TERMINALS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND CEILINGS/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. SHOWER THREAT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA COVERAGE/EXACT TIMING AND TIMING OF SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. MONDAY...SLGT CHC FOR SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...CHC FOR TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHC FOR TSRA. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. STILL THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY TRENDS DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO START TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST FLOW FRESHENING UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS OCCURS. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1251 PM CDT Sat May 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat May 3 2014 Weak cold front has dropped south of the I-70 corridor this morning, pushing its associated mid-level cloud cover into the Ohio River Valley. Further north, mostly sunny skies prevail across central Illinois. 15z/10am temps are in the upper 50s and lower 60s, well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower 70s. Current forecast has a good handle on things, so no update is needed at this time. Barnes && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1251 PM CDT Sat May 3 2014 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. A weak upper-level disturbance will spread mid-level clouds across the area by late this afternoon through the evening hours. NAM forecast soundings show 12000ft ceilings arriving at KPIA by around 22z, spreading eastward to KCMI by 00z. While some high-res models such as the HRRR suggest the potential for a few light showers/sprinkles, think airmass will remain too dry below 700mb to support any precip. Will therefore keep forecast dry, with only a mid-level overcast this evening. Clouds will clear from west to east overnight. After that, another fast-moving wave will approach from the northwest on Sunday. As has been the case with the past several model runs, the best focus for lower clouds and showers will remain north of the central Illinois terminals. Will bring mid-clouds back to the I-74 TAF sites Sunday morning, with mostly clear skies persisting further south at both KSPI and KDEC. Gusty W/NW winds this afternoon will decrease and eventually become NE late tonight into Sunday after a frontal boundary passes through the area. Barnes && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 304 AM CDT Sat May 3 2014 A transition in our upper level pattern will occur in the next 24-48 hours as we go from a persistent northwest flow to more of a zonal flow early next week. An upper trough digging into the western states will allow ridging to build by midweek, along with much warmer temperatures. Eventually the western trough will shift east toward the Mississippi valley later in the week, resulting in precipitation and a return to cooler temperatures. SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Low pressure in southeast WI will shift toward eastern Ontario by this evening. A weak cold front, just west of the IL River valley early this morning, will settle into central and southeast IL today. The lack of moisture and forcing with this feature will just result in a few clouds. The upstream low level temperature fields are not too much different behind this weak front, and in fact are even a bit warmer than yesterday. Thus, with more sunshine anticipated, highs today should be nearly 10 degrees warmer, around 70. Upper level support rapidly shearing toward northern IL from the WNW Sunday morning will produce a quick shot of light rainfall along and north of the I-74 corridor. This fast moving system will exit the region by Sunday afternoon, leaving some cloudiness behind, which will keep temperatures down in the lower to middle 60s. The rest of central and SE IL can expect mostly sunny conditions with highs once again near 70. Another quick moving upper level system moving through the nearly zonal flow could bring a few showers to northern IL Monday afternoon. For now will stick with a slight chance of showers in the areas mainly north of I-74 since the moisture starved system will have a better chance of squeezing out light showers farther north. Once again the presence of some clouds and a E-NE surface wind will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 60s north, with 70 to 75 in the central and southeast parts of the forecast area. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday A nearly stationary front near the Ohio valley Tuesday will keep temperatures seasonable in the lower to middle 70s. By Tuesday night the models are in good agreement that a building upper level ridge will allow the front to quickly lift north/reform as a warm front. Once again the I-74 corridor will be the most likely location for scattered showers/t-storms Tuesday night as moisture is projected to focus on the boundary. The whole forecast area will likely be in the warm sector Wednesday where temperatures will climb well into the 80s. A few t-storms could develop with the increasing low level moisture, but for now will keep the PoPs in the slight chance category due to a lack of a focusing mechanism. The better chances for showers and t-storms can be expected Thursday west of I-55 and across the whole forecast area by Friday along and ahead of a relatively slow moving cold front. The GFS and European are actually in fairly good agreement as to the movement of the front and the potential for rainfall from late Thursday through Friday. Temperatures will continue to be warm on Thursday, but due to the presence of clouds and potential for rainfall, readings Friday should be nearly 10 degrees cooler. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 BASED ON RADAR AND OBS I HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF CWA INTO EARLY EVE FOR BAND OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WITH CONSIDERABLE T/TD SPREADS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WAS PROVIDING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THE REGION WAS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE RAIN WAS COMING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WHICH WAS CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE RAIN AND MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A 120KT H3 JET STREAK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WEAKENS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH BASED RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN ACROSS THE DVN CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY TO FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO THE RAIN SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FGEN IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WHICH THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. H3 JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MID/LOW LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN THAT SHOULD IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SOUTH...A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WELCOMED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AND ON PCPN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCE TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY-TUESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA DRAPED OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A 40KT LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OVERNIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND PROGGED 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON SPEED OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. CWA TO BE COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 70S/MIDDLE 80S AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO FEEL HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLJ TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF JET ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST MODELS TRACK THESE STORMS EAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY NEAR THE CWA. NONETHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THIS BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER FORCING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOME WITH IT NOT ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SLOWER FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AND HAVE RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES WITH FORECAST HIGHS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE JET AXIS/STRONG SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA OUTLINED FOR THIS IN ITS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS TIME FRAME BY LATER SHIFTS. REST OF EXTENDED...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THIS FEATURE MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES. CEILINGS THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 8KFT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN IL. AGAIN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...DLF SHORT TERM...DLF LONG TERM...GROSS AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WAS PROVIDING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THE REGION WAS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE RAIN WAS COMING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WHICH WAS CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE RAIN AND MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A 120KT H3 JET STREAK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WEAKENS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH BASED RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN ACROSS THE DVN CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY TO FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO THE RAIN SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FGEN IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WHICH THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. H3 JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MID/LOW LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN THAT SHOULD IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SOUTH...A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WELCOMED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AND ON PCPN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCE TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY-TUESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA DRAPED OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A 40KT LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OVERNIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND PROGGED 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON SPEED OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. CWA TO BE COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 70S/MIDDLE 80S AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO FEEL HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLJ TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF JET ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST MODELS TRACK THESE STORMS EAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY NEAR THE CWA. NONETHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THIS BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER FORCING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOME WITH IT NOT ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SLOWER FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AND HAVE RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES WITH FORECAST HIGHS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE JET AXIS/STRONG SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA OUTLINED FOR THIS IN ITS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS TIME FRAME BY LATER SHIFTS. REST OF EXTENDED...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THIS FEATURE MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES. CEILINGS THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 8KFT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN IL. AGAIN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DLF SHORT TERM...DLF LONG TERM...GROSS AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 UPDATE WAS JUST SENT TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS NORTH A DEGREE OR TWO. USING A MIXING DEPTH OF 800MB...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...YIELDS SLIGHT LOWER MAX TEMPS THAN CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. ALSO OF SOME CONCERN IS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...SOUTH OF AN H3 JET AXIS FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. TIGHTENING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWEST OF THE AXIS SUPPORTS THE MID DECK EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. LATEST RAP DATA THOUGH...KEEPS THE CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH 21Z. IF THIS TIMING VERIFIES THEN THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY THIN CIRRUS SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH WEST WINDS ABOUT 10 MPH OR LESS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN OUR NW CWA. TODAY...AFTER HAVING SEVERAL DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY. WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THERE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN AND WEST WINDS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE READINGS WILL ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SMALL POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES... CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST FRONTOGENESIS IN NORTHERN KS AND NW MO WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL SET UP A NICE THERMAL RIBBON DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DVN CWA WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO NEAR 50 IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WARMING TREND STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BE SEVERE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH BL MOISTURE ISSUES THAT ARE TOO MOIST RESULTING IN TOO HIGH COVERAGE OF POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR WEAKLY FORCING SITUATIONS. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND INTER SOLUTION TRENDS SUPPORTS USING A 60/40 MIX OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF WITH BL TEMPS THAT MAY NEED RAISING IN WARM SECTOR BASED ON VERIFICATION PAST 2 DAYS. SUNDAY...HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF LIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MARGINAL WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 5-8K AGL. SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH 1/3 TO NEAR 70F FAR SOUTH SECTIONS. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TO MAKE FOR A COOL EARLY MAY DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND MINS TO SETTLE IN THE UPPER 30S NE TO MID 40S SOUTH SECTIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON MONDAY AND UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING. COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR MAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH INTO AREA WITH FAVORABLE FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST RISK OF LARGE HAIL AOA 1" IN DIAMETER WHICH WILL BE MORE CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS REASONABLE ATTM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED AND RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SPEED OF WARM FRONT A QUESTION. JET AXIS SUPPORTS MOST TO ALL OF AREA SHOULD BE IN WARM SECTOR BY PM HOURS WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THIS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MILD WITH LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND POSSIBLE STORMS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT MOVES. LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM WITH BEST ESTIMATE IS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID AND BLUSTERY WITH AFTERNOON TO EVENING COLD FRONT TO PASS. SYNOPTIC FORCING TOOLS SUPPORTS STORMS WITH SEVERE WITH HIGHS 75 TO 85 ATTM. LOCAL TECHNIQUES INDICATE A TYPICAL LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUGGESTED THAT SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADO RISK AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. POPS MAY NEED RAISING IN THE PM HOURS. THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS AGAIN MAY NEED RAISING WITH COOL FRONT PASSING WITH CLEARING BY MORNING. LOWS MAY NEED TO BE LOWER IF COOL FRONT PASSES FASTER. FRIDAY...CLEARING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F AND LOWS UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THIS FEATURE MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES. CEILINGS THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 8KFT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN IL. AGAIN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DLF SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...NICHOLS AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 UPDATE WAS JUST SENT TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS NORTH A DEGREE OR TWO. USING A MIXING DEPTH OF 800MB...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...YIELDS SLIGHT LOWER MAX TEMPS THAN CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. ALSO OF SOME CONCERN IS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...SOUTH OF AN H3 JET AXIS FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. TIGHTENING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWEST OF THE AXIS SUPPORTS THE MID DECK EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. LATEST RAP DATA THOUGH...KEEPS THE CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH 21Z. IF THIS TIMING VERIFIES THEN THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY THIN CIRRUS SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH WEST WINDS ABOUT 10 MPH OR LESS. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN OUR NW CWA. TODAY...AFTER HAVING SEVERAL DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY. WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THERE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN AND WEST WINDS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE READINGS WILL ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SMALL POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES... CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST FRONTOGENESIS IN NORTHERN KS AND NW MO WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL SET UP A NICE THERMAL RIBBON DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DVN CWA WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO NEAR 50 IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WARMING TREND STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BE SEVERE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH BL MOISTURE ISSUES THAT ARE TOO MOIST RESULTING IN TOO HIGH COVERAGE OF POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR WEAKLY FORCING SITUATIONS. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND INTER SOLUTION TRENDS SUPPORTS USING A 60/40 MIX OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF WITH BL TEMPS THAT MAY NEED RAISING IN WARM SECTOR BASED ON VERIFICATION PAST 2 DAYS. SUNDAY...HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF LIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MARGINAL WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 5-8K AGL. SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH 1/3 TO NEAR 70F FAR SOUTH SECTIONS. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TO MAKE FOR A COOL EARLY MAY DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND MINS TO SETTLE IN THE UPPER 30S NE TO MID 40S SOUTH SECTIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON MONDAY AND UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING. COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR MAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH INTO AREA WITH FAVORABLE FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST RISK OF LARGE HAIL AOA 1" IN DIAMETER WHICH WILL BE MORE CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS REASONABLE ATTM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED AND RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SPEED OF WARM FRONT A QUESTION. JET AXIS SUPPORTS MOST TO ALL OF AREA SHOULD BE IN WARM SECTOR BY PM HOURS WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THIS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MILD WITH LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND POSSIBLE STORMS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT MOVES. LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM WITH BEST ESTIMATE IS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID AND BLUSTERY WITH AFTERNOON TO EVENING COLD FRONT TO PASS. SYNOPTIC FORCING TOOLS SUPPORTS STORMS WITH SEVERE WITH HIGHS 75 TO 85 ATTM. LOCAL TECHNIQUES INDICATE A TYPICAL LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUGGESTED THAT SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADO RISK AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. POPS MAY NEED RAISING IN THE PM HOURS. THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS AGAIN MAY NEED RAISING WITH COOL FRONT PASSING WITH CLEARING BY MORNING. LOWS MAY NEED TO BE LOWER IF COOL FRONT PASSES FASTER. FRIDAY...CLEARING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F AND LOWS UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY BECOMING CIGS AOA 7KFT THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DLF SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...NICHOLS AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 70S ARE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM WHERE THE WINDS STAY UP. SOME LOCATIONS ON BOTH SIDES WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS SO COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO DROP. AS TODAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF WHERE THE FRONT IS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST WITH FRONT AND IS THE COOLEST. OF THE MODELS THAT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH...THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING WELL RIGHT NOW. MOST OF THE OUTPUT HOW MORE OF THE FORECAST ON THE WARM SIDE...AND WILL BE GOING THAT DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHEAST CORNER LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO REFER TO THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR TOMORROWS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY WITH COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERING. MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF FOG BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS. FUEL STATUS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH GREEN-UP ONGOING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DUE TO DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THE DRYLINE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST DURING PERIODS OF BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY SO BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT DO NOT THINK A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPORADIC SO NOT EVERYBODY WILL RECEIVE A NEEDED RAINFALL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SUBTLE MOVEMENTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTY AT KGLD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LIKE TODAY...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEFINITELY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FUEL STATUS AND ON THE WINDS. WHAT DATA CAN BE FOUND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE ARE IN GREEN-UP BUT THAT MAY BE MOSTLY FOR GROWING CROPS. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY AND REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS. IF THE STRONGER NAM WINDS WORK OUT...THEN SOME LOCATION IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA COULD REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT NEEDING TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MAY 4. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY. GOODLAND.....91 IN 2012 MCCOOK.......94 IN 2012 BURLINGTON...92 IN 1963 HILL CITY....93 IN 2012 COLBY........92 IN 1924 TRIBUNE......94 IN 1952 YUMA.........89 IN 1962 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...BULLER FIRE WEATHER...BULLER CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 70S ARE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM WHERE THE WINDS STAY UP. SOME LOCATIONS ON BOTH SIDES WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS SO COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO DROP. AS TODAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF WHERE THE FRONT IS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST WITH FRONT AND IS THE COOLEST. OF THE MODELS THAT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH...THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING WELL RIGHT NOW. MOST OF THE OUTPUT HOW MORE OF THE FORECAST ON THE WARM SIDE...AND WILL BE GOING THAT DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHEAST CORNER LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST WITH SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO REFER TO THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR TOMORROWS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD A DEEP RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACH CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SUBTLE MOVEMENTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTY AT KGLD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LIKE TODAY...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEFINITELY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FUEL STATUS AND ON THE WINDS. WHAT DATA CAN BE FOUND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE ARE IN GREENUP BUT THAT MAY BE MOSTLY FOR GROWING CROPS. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY AND REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS. IF THE STRONGER NAM WINDS WORK OUT...THEN SOME LOCATION IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA COULD REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A WATCH WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT NEEDING TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MAY 4. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY. GOODLAND.....91 IN 2012 MCCOOK.......94 IN 2012 BURLINGTON...92 IN 1963 HILL CITY....93 IN 2012 COLBY........92 IN 1924 TRIBUNE......94 IN 1952 YUMA.........89 IN 1962 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...BULLER FIRE WEATHER...BULLER CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1146 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH FEATURES. RAP/HRRR HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SETUP AND USED THEM FOR THE WIND FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE NOW THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER WEST AND A LITTLE SLOWER TO START MOVING EAST. USED THE RAP FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LATEST NAM/SREF LOOKED VERY CLOSE TO THE RAP BY LATER TODAY AND USED THEM TO ADJUST THE WINDS/POSITION OF THE FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED TOMORROW. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY BASED ON ITS BETTER HANDLING OF THE WIND/TEMPERATURE FIELD PLUS 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY WELL MIXED AND DRY AIR MASS WITH THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN PORTION. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DIVING TO VERY LOW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND RESIDE THERE THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EITHER IN EASTERN COLORADO OR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR BOTH OF THE WAVES AS THEY COME THROUGH. OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST WITH NIL POPS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 80S TODAY AND AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AROUND 50. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD A DEEP RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACH CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SUBTLE MOVEMENTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE SHIFTING THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTY AT KGLD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
942 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH FEATURES. RAP/HRRR HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SETUP AND USED THEM FOR THE WIND FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE NOW THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER WEST AND A LITTLE SLOWER TO START MOVING EAST. USED THE RAP FOR THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LATEST NAM/SREF LOOKED VERY CLOSE TO THE RAP BY LATER TODAY AND USED THEM TO ADJUST THE WINDS/POSITION OF THE FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED TOMORROW. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY BASED ON ITS BETTER HANDLING OF THE WIND/TEMPERATURE FIELD PLUS 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY WELL MIXED AND DRY AIR MASS WITH THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN PORTION. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DIVING TO VERY LOW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND RESIDE THERE THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EITHER IN EASTERN COLORADO OR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR BOTH OF THE WAVES AS THEY COME THROUGH. OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST WITH NIL POPS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 80S TODAY AND AROUND 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 40S. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AROUND 50. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD A DEEP RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACH CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 457 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KNCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
643 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATE: LGT SHOWERS ACROSS E CENTRAL AREAS ATTM BUT APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING W/ A MORE WDSPRD AREA OF SHOWERS FROM WRN MAINE BACK ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA ASSOCIATED W/ THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATE TNGT THRU SUN. ATTM GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO BEEF UP CLDS A BIT AND ADJUST HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE RUNNING A LITTLE HYR THAN FCST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TERM AND BEYOND. THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND EXITING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY THE EVENING AS THE REGION GETS UNDER SOME UPPER RIDGING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER THE BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AROUND 60F EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST, AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ONTARIO REGION. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM AND RAP INTO TONIGHT W/A NICE BREAK IN THE PRECIP UP THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN WELL ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY W/ITS UPPER SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS ALL HINGES ON CLOUDS ARRIVE SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY ON. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND DOWNEAST. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY A WET DAY W/RAIN AS LOW PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION GET UNDER A SW FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 700MBS. THE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND W/THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES W/SREF MUCAPES OF 300 J/KG. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT K INDEX OF 30 AND TOTAL TOTALS OF 55+. LIS DROP TO NEAR 0. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION AND DECIDED TO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE STABLE ENOUGH KEPT THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS TO A MINIMUM IF NONE AT ALL. HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. SOME DEFORMATION BANDING PRECIP POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LOW. TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.30 TO 0.75". THIS ADDITIONAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE RIVER BASINS AND CAUSE THE STAGES TO RISE SOME BUT NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE LOW AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALOFT. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. SKY COVER FROM THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM HE SUPPER BLEND. HAVE USED THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CREST THEN CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL USE HE SUPPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB SUNDAY MORNING AND THE IFR EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB AND EVEN VFR AS THIS REGION GETS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AS SW FLOW SETS UP. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SSW SWELL ATTM ON THE WATERS W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FT. EXPECT THIS SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A 30KT LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS UP A BIT W/GUST TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE SREF AND GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM OUT TO 0000Z TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
316 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TERM AND BEYOND. THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND EXITING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY THE EVENING AS THE REGION GETS UNDER SOME UPPER RIDGING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER THE BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AROUND 60F EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST, AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ONTARIO REGION. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM AND RAP INTO TONIGHT W/A NICE BREAK IN THE PRECIP UP THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN WELL ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY W/ITS UPPER SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS ALL HINGES ON CLOUDS ARRIVE SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY ON. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND DOWNEAST. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY A WET DAY W/RAIN AS LOW PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION GET UNDER A SW FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 700MBS. THE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND W/THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES W/SREF MUCAPES OF 300 J/KG. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT K INDEX OF 30 AND TOTAL TOTALS OF 55+. LIS DROP TO NEAR 0. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION AND DECIDED TO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE STABLE ENOUGH KEPT THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS TO A MINIMUM IF NONE AT ALL. HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. SOME DEFORMATION BANDING PRECIP POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LOW. TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.30 TO 0.75". THIS ADDITIONAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE RIVER BASINS AND CAUSE THE STAGES TO RISE SOME BUT NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE LOW AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALOFT. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. SKY COVER FROM THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM HE SUPPER BLEND. HAVE USED THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CREST THEN CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL USE HE SUPPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB SUNDAY MORNING AND THE IFR EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB AND EVEN VFR AS THIS REGION GETS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AS SW FLOW SETS UP. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SSW SWELL ATTM ON THE WATERS W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FT. EXPECT THIS SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A 30KT LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS UP A BIT W/GUST TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE SREF AND GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM OUT TO 0000Z TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
956 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CDFNT CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS SSW THROUGH INTERIOR E AND SE VA...AND WILL CONT TO SETTLE S THROUGH THE FCST NEXT FEW HRS. 00Z/05 RUC PUSHES THE FNT S INTO SRN NC BY 12Z/05. BECOMING COOLER POST CDFNT OVRNGT...W/ LO TEMPS RANGING FM M/U40S N...TO THE L/M50S S. VRB CLDS/PCLDY ACRS THE FA THE REST OF THE NGT...W/ POPS AOB 14%. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NW ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER NC. LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST MON AFTN/MON NIGHT. AFTER SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...EXPECT SKIES TO CLOUD OVER FROM W TO E BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN THE AFTN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST W/NW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. BY LATE MON AFTN AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING IS WHEN MID LEVEL (H7 TO H5) LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7-7.5 C IN SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO NEGATIVE IN THESE AREAS DESPITE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER (AND +LI VALUES). THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS (MAINLY ELEVATED) ALONG/SOUTH OF I-64. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PUSH A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST ON TUE...AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT POPS FOR TUE EXCEPT ACRS THE SW WHERE A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED. LOW LEVEL LIGHT/E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY COOL AGAIN...65-70F NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 70S WELL INLAND. THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHWR AND ISOLD TSTSM CHANCES WED (ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE W OF THE AKQ CWA). SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THRU CNTRL AND ERN CNTIES WED NGT THRU THU...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. UPR RDG WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES IN FM THE W. THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE SAT THRU SUN. WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS FM NW TO SE FRI NGT THRU SAT...THEN MAINLY HAVE CHC POPS EVERYWHERE SAT NGT THRU SUN...ALNG WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF THUNDER. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S THU MORNG...UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FRI MORNG...LWR TO MID 60S SAT MORNG...AND 60 TO 65 SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 70S TO THE MID 80S THU...UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI...MID 70S TO MID 80S SAT...AND FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 SUN. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION N TO S THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY(00Z MON) PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PENINSULA. SW-W WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN MON AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A 20-30% CHC OF -SHRA AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA. && .MARINE... CDFNT TO MOVE THROUGH FAR SRN WTRS NEXT COUPLE HRS...ASSOCIATED W/ AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NNE AND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. XPCG NNE WNDS ACRS THE WTRS THE REST OF THE NGT. KEEPING SCAS IN PLACE (THE ENTIRE CHES BAY AND THE JAMES RIVER FM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON RDS BRIDGE...AS WELL AS THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS). ADDITIONALLY...SEAS SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH 4-5 FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER NC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LO PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MON NGT INTO TUE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NNE ACRS THE WTRS AS A WARM FRONT WED INTO THU. HI PRES EVENTUALLY SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR LATE THU THRU FRI. && .HYDROLOGY... A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE LATEST FLSAKQ PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638- 650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS PAST EVENING AND IS NOW PUSHING A NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE...LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER JET...MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE THAN 0.05 TO 0.15 WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THESE SHOWERS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 0.13 INCH RECEIVED AT IRONWOOD AWOS. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN UPSTREAM (ASSOCIATED WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE) MAY LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER) AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IDEA FOLLOWS QPF OUTPUT BY THE MODELS FOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT IS PRODUCING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SKY COVER FORECAST...AS MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (STARTING TO SEE HINTS OF IT AT KIWD AT 4AM). WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOSE CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE MODELS SHIFT THE MOISTURE NORTHEAST AND INCREASED MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT THIS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE INCREASE IN MIXING TODAY WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BEHIND THE TROUGH. TRENDED WINDS UP IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO BETTER MIXING SHOWN ON 00Z MODEL RUNS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH TO MAYBE EVEN 30MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THESE INCREASED WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THIS MORNING. DID LINGER SOME FOG OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. FINALLY...HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER UNDER THE EXPECTATIONS OF SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND ITS MERGING WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL...DUE TO MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND WITH LIMITED MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...OPTED TO STICK WITH SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS. THE OTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH THAT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE LAND AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00Z MODELS SEEM TO DELAY THE PRECIP TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SHOWERS HAPPEN...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLING OF THE COLUMN TO THE WETBULB TEMP. WITH THE WETBULB0 VALUES AROUND 1600-3000FT THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO THE SURFACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE RAIN INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW (AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA). A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL KEEP A STEADY WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TOWARDS DAYBREAK (GUSTS TO 20-25MPH). LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH TIME SUN INTO MON NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT ON SUNDAY AND WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO SET UP. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER LAKE BREEZES COMING IN OFF THE WATER/ICE AREAS. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE RIDGE GETS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WHILE THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FOR 12Z THU AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. AS THE RIDGE POKES UP INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 13C ON THU AND IF WE WOULD MIX THAT DOWN TO THE SFC...WOULD GET UP INTO THE MID 70S. ONLY PROBLEM IS WARM FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND SO THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WITH WARM SECTOR STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH...HAVING THUNDER IN THERE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AS AREA IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OVERRUN THE WARM FRONT AND GET WRUNG OUT OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KIWD HAS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...BUT IF IT IS STILL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AT CMX AND SAW FROM AROUND 09Z-15Z SUNDAY THANKS TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF THE NW WINDS BECOMING MORE N THROUGH THE MORNING /PARTICULARLY AT SAW/. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILING AND VIS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING AS GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE RETURN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER WILL DEEPEN ACROSS MAINE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS ND AND MN OVERNIGHT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 20KTS...AND LAKE BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH E-SE WINDS SWINGING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO E MM AND W LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS. LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER OVER HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE. RIVERS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE...SINCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THAT AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE BASINS AND THE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT...AROUND 0.2IN OR LESS. ONE INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE IS CURRENTLY AT 9.58 FEET...WHICH IS THE 3RD HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD /60 YEARS OF DATA/. WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT UPSTREAM OF THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER...THE ONGOING SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WATER INTO THEIR BASINS. EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW. THE MELT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN THOUGH AS NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AFTER THE RAIN TOMORROW MORNING...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
249 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. OUR LONG PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT THINGS WILL TURN WARMER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MAIN BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PUSHING THROUGH THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA...ALONG WELL DEFINED SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NW-SE ORIENTED JET STREAK STRETCHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STILL A FEW MORE SWIRLS ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE JET TO GET THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ONE SHORT WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAS HELPED TO EXPAND HEATING INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP LINE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER FAR WESTERN ONTARIO THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE SLOWLY OUT OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH HEATING AND SHORT WAVE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE TAILORED AFTERNOON POPS IN THAT DIRECTION. DID GET A REPORT OF ICE PELLETS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS NEAR BEAVERTON...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT. AND THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING ICE PELLETS TO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...ALTHOUGH IT/S MORE OF A GEE WHIZ THING THAN ANYTHING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VORTICITY MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW/TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN DRIVING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE BATCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER STRETCHED OUT BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WHOLE CONGLOMERATION OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL PRECIP TO THE CWA. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SHARP CLEARING LINE AND DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON (ALREADY HAPPENING IN THE SW COUNTIES). HAVE TWEAKED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BUT...WITH -28C OR COLDER MID LEVEL AIR SLIPPING INTO NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/ HEATING AND SOME RESULTING INSTABILITY...CERTAINLY THINK SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY DOWNWIND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE E/S PART OF THE CWA...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY, SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DIVING INTO THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TO THE WEST, THERE IS A DECENT AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE DRYING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE. TODAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SIMILAR CONFIGURATION WITH THE QPF, THE GFS IS MORE INTENSE, SO THINKING THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER, WITH THAT SAID THE MASS FIELDS ARE COMPARABLE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO WC LOWER, AND SPREADING RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC13 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION LIKE THE ECMWF, WHICH SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRENDS OF THE RADAR ATTM. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 AS SFC TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96 DOWNSTATE. THERE IS A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN AND KRRL AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND AREAS NORTH OF M-32 THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE AS THE DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NOW, SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NW LOWER AND C UPPER. TONIGHT...AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850 MB AND LOWER RH IS AROUND 70%) AND WITH ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR, THAT WE GE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN E UPPER, AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -4C WITH THE SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 30S. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE N LOWER HIGHLANDS, AROUND GAYLORD AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S THERE AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THERE APPEAR TO BE ACTUAL CHANGES ON THE HORIZON. UPPER FLOW FINALLY GETS UNSTUCK AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. AFTER ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE SQUEEZES BY SUPERIOR/EASTERN UPPER MI EARLY SUNDAY...RIDGING OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW...AND HANGS OUT THRU MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY STILL QUITE COOL...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SEEN AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL MODERATE IN PLACE AS EARLY MAY SUNSHINE FINALLY GETS A CHANCE TO DO SOMETHING. SO SUNNIER AND MILDER WX IS IN STORE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. A FAIRLY POTENT 500MB VORT RIBBON WILL EXTEND FROM ISLE ROYALE TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON IN THE MORNING. IT/S PROGRESS EASTWARD WILL SET US UP FOR SUBSTANTIAL NVA AND DEEP DESCENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BUT UNTIL THEN...WE/LL BE FIGHTING OFF A SHOWER THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE BENEATH AND NORTH OF THE VORT RIBBON. SOME DPVA DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND BENEATH THE RIBBON. TO THE NORTH...WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT (-32C AT 500MB OVER EASTERN UPPER AT 12Z) AND CORRESPONDING STEEP LAPSE RATES (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 7.5-7.75C/KM). SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE THE MELTING LAYER LOWERS TO AROUND 1K FT THICK. WILL CUT OFF PRECIP AT 16Z...THOUGH COLD-AIR CUMULUS WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE CHILLY AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS -3 TO -4C) AND LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE FAR SE. SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME SUNDAY EVENING IN NORTHERN LOWER. SOME SIGNS OF MSLP TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE HANGING AROUND EASTERN UPPER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT WOULD HELP SOME RESIDUAL STRATOCU LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND POINTS NORTH. THE ARRIVAL OF BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD PRESENCE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LEFTOVER FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STILL...THINGS LOOKS PARTLY SUNNY AT WORST. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DIP A LITTLE LOWER. MAX TEMPS 50 TO 60F. REST OF THE FORECAST...UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE TIME IT MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND/OR SUPPRESS IT TOWARD NEXT...THOUGH THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS HAPPENS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MUCH WARMER PATTERN...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING MCS/S INTO THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING AS SOON AS WED NIGHT. THIS HAS CLEAR POTENTIAL TO MESS UP OTHERWISE WARM WX...AND WILL NOT GO WILD WITH MAX TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. AS FOR PRECIP...INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA ON WED (THOUGH WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER). THINGS GRADUALLY GET STORMIER INTO THURSDAY/THU NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON TIMING WE MAY TRY TO DRY OUT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT (ECMWF) OR NOT SEE FROPA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT (GFS). SO CHANCY POPS STILL IN ORDER THAT FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AT TVC/PLN/APN. SHOWER ACTIVITY FADES THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAINFALL AND WEAKENING WINDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO CURTAIL THAT THREAT. THEN...ANOTHER BOUT OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIPS DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN... ALTHOUGH THINK CIGS REMAIN VFR. BUT ON SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO VEER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AND ONCE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW THEY SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND THE FAVORED COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREA, FROM THE MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AND POSSIBLY WAVES EARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADAM SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
207 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS PAST EVENING AND IS NOW PUSHING A NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE...LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER JET...MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE THAN 0.05 TO 0.15 WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THESE SHOWERS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 0.13 INCH RECEIVED AT IRONWOOD AWOS. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN UPSTREAM (ASSOCIATED WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE) MAY LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER) AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IDEA FOLLOWS QPF OUTPUT BY THE MODELS FOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT IS PRODUCING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SKY COVER FORECAST...AS MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (STARTING TO SEE HINTS OF IT AT KIWD AT 4AM). WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOSE CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE MODELS SHIFT THE MOISTURE NORTHEAST AND INCREASED MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT THIS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE INCREASE IN MIXING TODAY WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BEHIND THE TROUGH. TRENDED WINDS UP IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO BETTER MIXING SHOWN ON 00Z MODEL RUNS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH TO MAYBE EVEN 30MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THESE INCREASED WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THIS MORNING. DID LINGER SOME FOG OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. FINALLY...HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER UNDER THE EXPECTATIONS OF SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND ITS MERGING WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL...DUE TO MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND WITH LIMITED MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...OPTED TO STICK WITH SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS. THE OTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH THAT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE LAND AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00Z MODELS SEEM TO DELAY THE PRECIP TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SHOWERS HAPPEN...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLING OF THE COLUMN TO THE WETBULB TEMP. WITH THE WETBULB0 VALUES AROUND 1600-3000FT THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO THE SURFACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE RAIN INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW (AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA). A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL KEEP A STEADY WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TOWARDS DAYBREAK (GUSTS TO 20-25MPH). LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH TIME SUN INTO MON NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT ON SUNDAY AND WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO SET UP. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER LAKE BREEZES COMING IN OFF THE WATER/ICE AREAS. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE RIDGE GETS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WHILE THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FOR 12Z THU AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. AS THE RIDGE POKES UP INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 13C ON THU AND IF WE WOULD MIX THAT DOWN TO THE SFC...WOULD GET UP INTO THE MID 70S. ONLY PROBLEM IS WARM FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND SO THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WITH WARM SECTOR STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH...HAVING THUNDER IN THERE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AS AREA IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OVERRUN THE WARM FRONT AND GET WRUNG OUT OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KIWD HAS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...BUT IF IT IS STILL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AT CMX AND SAW FROM AROUND 09Z-15Z SUNDAY THANKS TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF THE NW WINDS BECOMING MORE N THROUGH THE MORNING /PARTICULARLY AT SAW/. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILING AND VIS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING AS GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE RETURN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A PARENT LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10-25KTS. AS THE FIRST TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAINING IN THE 10-25KT RANGE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS. LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER OVER HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE. RIVERS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE STARTED TO STEADY OUT ON THEIR RISES OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...SINCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THAT AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE BASINS. WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY (GENERALLY UNDER 0.15INCH)...EXPECT THOSE RIVERS LEVELS TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE IS CURRENTLY AT 9.57 FEET...WHICH IS THE 3RD HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD /60 YEARS OF DATA/. WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT UPSTREAM OF THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER...THE ONGOING SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WATER INTO THEIR BASINS EVEN WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW. THE MELT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN THOUGH AS NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AFTER THE RAIN THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...KF MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. OUR LONG PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT THINGS WILL TURN WARMER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VORTICITY MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW/TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN DRIVING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE BATCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER STRETCHED OUT BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WHOLE CONGLOMERATION OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL PRECIP TO THE CWA. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SHARP CLEARING LINE AND DRIER AIR NOTED UPSTREAM THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON (ALREADY HAPPENING IN THE SW COUNTIES). HAVE TWEAKED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BUT...WITH -28C OR COLDER MID LEVEL AIR SLIPPING INTO NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/ HEATING AND SOME RESULTING INSTABILITY...CERTAINLY THINK SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY DOWNWIND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE E/S PART OF THE CWA...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY, SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DIVING INTO THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TO THE WEST, THERE IS A DECENT AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE DRYING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE. TODAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SIMILAR CONFIGURATION WITH THE QPF, THE GFS IS MORE INTENSE, SO THINKING THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER, WITH THAT SAID THE MASS FIELDS ARE COMPARABLE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO WC LOWER, AND SPREADING RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC13 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION LIKE THE ECMWF, WHICH SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRENDS OF THE RADAR ATTM. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 AS SFC TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96 DOWNSTATE. THERE IS A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN AND KRRL AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND AREAS NORTH OF M-32 THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE AS THE DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NOW, SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NW LOWER AND C UPPER. TONIGHT...AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850 MB AND LOWER RH IS AROUND 70%) AND WITH ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR, THAT WE GE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN E UPPER, AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -4C WITH THE SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 30S. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE N LOWER HIGHLANDS, AROUND GAYLORD AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S THERE AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THERE APPEAR TO BE ACTUAL CHANGES ON THE HORIZON. UPPER FLOW FINALLY GETS UNSTUCK AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. AFTER ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE SQUEEZES BY SUPERIOR/EASTERN UPPER MI EARLY SUNDAY...RIDGING OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW...AND HANGS OUT THRU MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY STILL QUITE COOL...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SEEN AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL MODERATE IN PLACE AS EARLY MAY SUNSHINE FINALLY GETS A CHANCE TO DO SOMETHING. SO SUNNIER AND MILDER WX IS IN STORE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. A FAIRLY POTENT 500MB VORT RIBBON WILL EXTEND FROM ISLE ROYALE TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON IN THE MORNING. IT/S PROGRESS EASTWARD WILL SET US UP FOR SUBSTANTIAL NVA AND DEEP DESCENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BUT UNTIL THEN...WE/LL BE FIGHTING OFF A SHOWER THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE BENEATH AND NORTH OF THE VORT RIBBON. SOME DPVA DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND BENEATH THE RIBBON. TO THE NORTH...WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT (-32C AT 500MB OVER EASTERN UPPER AT 12Z) AND CORRESPONDING STEEP LAPSE RATES (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 7.5-7.75C/KM). SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE THE MELTING LAYER LOWERS TO AROUND 1K FT THICK. WILL CUT OFF PRECIP AT 16Z...THOUGH COLD-AIR CUMULUS WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE CHILLY AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS -3 TO -4C) AND LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE FAR SE. SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME SUNDAY EVENING IN NORTHERN LOWER. SOME SIGNS OF MSLP TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE HANGING AROUND EASTERN UPPER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT WOULD HELP SOME RESIDUAL STRATOCU LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND POINTS NORTH. THE ARRIVAL OF BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD PRESENCE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LEFTOVER FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STILL...THINGS LOOKS PARTLY SUNNY AT WORST. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DIP A LITTLE LOWER. MAX TEMPS 50 TO 60F. REST OF THE FORECAST...UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE TIME IT MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND/OR SUPPRESS IT TOWARD NEXT...THOUGH THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS HAPPENS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MUCH WARMER PATTERN...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING MCS/S INTO THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING AS SOON AS WED NIGHT. THIS HAS CLEAR POTENTIAL TO MESS UP OTHERWISE WARM WX...AND WILL NOT GO WILD WITH MAX TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. AS FOR PRECIP...INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA ON WED (THOUGH WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER). THINGS GRADUALLY GET STORMIER INTO THURSDAY/THU NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON TIMING WE MAY TRY TO DRY OUT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT (ECMWF) OR NOT SEE FROPA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT (GFS). SO CHANCY POPS STILL IN ORDER THAT FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...THOUGH IN GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LOWER MI TODAY. SHRA AND OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. APN WILL TEND TO BE MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...AND PLN WILL START OUT IFR AND TREND TO MVFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE BETTER OFF...MOSTLY VFR BUT PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES. ALL SITES WILL TEND TO VFR TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME LOWER (MVFR) CIGS MAY REACH PLN AT MORNING AS COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN. WESTERLY BREEZE THRU THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO VEER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AND ONCE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW THEY SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND THE FAVORED COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREA, FROM THE MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AND POSSIBLY WAVES EARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADAM SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
659 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS PAST EVENING AND IS NOW PUSHING A NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE...LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER JET...MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE THAN 0.05 TO 0.15 WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THESE SHOWERS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 0.13 INCH RECEIVED AT IRONWOOD AWOS. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN UPSTREAM (ASSOCIATED WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE) MAY LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER) AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IDEA FOLLOWS QPF OUTPUT BY THE MODELS FOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT IS PRODUCING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SKY COVER FORECAST...AS MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (STARTING TO SEE HINTS OF IT AT KIWD AT 4AM). WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOSE CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE MODELS SHIFT THE MOISTURE NORTHEAST AND INCREASED MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT THIS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE INCREASE IN MIXING TODAY WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BEHIND THE TROUGH. TRENDED WINDS UP IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO BETTER MIXING SHOWN ON 00Z MODEL RUNS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH TO MAYBE EVEN 30MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THESE INCREASED WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THIS MORNING. DID LINGER SOME FOG OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. FINALLY...HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER UNDER THE EXPECTATIONS OF SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND ITS MERGING WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL...DUE TO MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND WITH LIMITED MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...OPTED TO STICK WITH SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS. THE OTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH THAT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE LAND AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00Z MODELS SEEM TO DELAY THE PRECIP TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SHOWERS HAPPEN...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLING OF THE COLUMN TO THE WETBULB TEMP. WITH THE WETBULB0 VALUES AROUND 1600-3000FT THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO THE SURFACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE RAIN INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW (AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA). A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL KEEP A STEADY WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TOWARDS DAYBREAK (GUSTS TO 20-25MPH). LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH TIME SUN INTO MON NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT ON SUNDAY AND WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO SET UP. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER LAKE BREEZES COMING IN OFF THE WATER/ICE AREAS. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE RIDGE GETS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WHILE THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FOR 12Z THU AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. AS THE RIDGE POKES UP INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 13C ON THU AND IF WE WOULD MIX THAT DOWN TO THE SFC...WOULD GET UP INTO THE MID 70S. ONLY PROBLEM IS WARM FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND SO THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WITH WARM SECTOR STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH...HAVING THUNDER IN THERE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AS AREA IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OVERRUN THE WARM FRONT AND GET WRUNG OUT OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO ALL THREE SITES IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY AFFECT KSAW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...IFR CEILINGS HAVE SETUP AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS FOR MIXING INTO THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KIWD HAS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...WITH CONFIDENCE LIMITED FOR OCCURRENCE AT KCMX/KSAW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...BUT IF IT IS STILL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR AT THIS POINT DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A PARENT LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10-25KTS. AS THE FIRST TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAINING IN THE 10-25KT RANGE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS. LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER OVER HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE. RIVERS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE STARTED TO STEADY OUT ON THEIR RISES OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...SINCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THAT AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE BASINS. WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY (GENERALLY UNDER 0.15INCH)...EXPECT THOSE RIVERS LEVELS TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE IS CURRENTLY AT 9.57 FEET...WHICH IS THE 3RD HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD /60 YEARS OF DATA/. WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT UPSTREAM OF THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER...THE ONGOING SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WATER INTO THEIR BASINS EVEN WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW. THE MELT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN THOUGH AS NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AFTER THE RAIN THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
653 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. OUR LONG PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT THINGS WILL TURN WARMER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY, SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DIVING INTO THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TO THE WEST, THERE IS A DECENT AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE DRYING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE. TODAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SIMILAR CONFIGURATION WITH THE QPF, THE GFS IS MORE INTENSE, SO THINKING THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER, WITH THAT SAID THE MASS FIELDS ARE COMPARABLE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO WC LOWER, AND SPREADING RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC13 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION LIKE THE ECMWF, WHICH SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRENDS OF THE RADAR ATTM. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 AS SFC TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96 DOWNSTATE. THERE IS A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN AND KRRL AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND AREAS NORTH OF M-32 THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE AS THE DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NOW, SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NW LOWER AND C UPPER. TONIGHT...AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850 MB AND LOWER RH IS AROUND 70%) AND WITH ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR, THAT WE GE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN E UPPER, AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -4C WITH THE SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 30S. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE N LOWER HIGHLANDS, AROUND GAYLORD AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S THERE AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THERE APPEAR TO BE ACTUAL CHANGES ON THE HORIZON. UPPER FLOW FINALLY GETS UNSTUCK AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. AFTER ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE SQUEEZES BY SUPERIOR/EASTERN UPPER MI EARLY SUNDAY...RIDGING OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW...AND HANGS OUT THRU MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY STILL QUITE COOL...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SEEN AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL MODERATE IN PLACE AS EARLY MAY SUNSHINE FINALLY GETS A CHANCE TO DO SOMETHING. SO SUNNIER AND MILDER WX IS IN STORE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. A FAIRLY POTENT 500MB VORT RIBBON WILL EXTEND FROM ISLE ROYALE TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON IN THE MORNING. IT/S PROGRESS EASTWARD WILL SET US UP FOR SUBSTANTIAL NVA AND DEEP DESCENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BUT UNTIL THEN...WE/LL BE FIGHTING OFF A SHOWER THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE BENEATH AND NORTH OF THE VORT RIBBON. SOME DPVA DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND BENEATH THE RIBBON. TO THE NORTH...WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT (-32C AT 500MB OVER EASTERN UPPER AT 12Z) AND CORRESPONDING STEEP LAPSE RATES (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 7.5-7.75C/KM). SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE THE MELTING LAYER LOWERS TO AROUND 1K FT THICK. WILL CUT OFF PRECIP AT 16Z...THOUGH COLD-AIR CUMULUS WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE CHILLY AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS -3 TO -4C) AND LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE FAR SE. SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME SUNDAY EVENING IN NORTHERN LOWER. SOME SIGNS OF MSLP TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE HANGING AROUND EASTERN UPPER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT WOULD HELP SOME RESIDUAL STRATOCU LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND POINTS NORTH. THE ARRIVAL OF BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD PRESENCE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LEFTOVER FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STILL...THINGS LOOKS PARTLY SUNNY AT WORST. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DIP A LITTLE LOWER. MAX TEMPS 50 TO 60F. REST OF THE FORECAST...UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE TIME IT MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND/OR SUPPRESS IT TOWARD NEXT...THOUGH THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS HAPPENS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MUCH WARMER PATTERN...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING MCS/S INTO THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING AS SOON AS WED NIGHT. THIS HAS CLEAR POTENTIAL TO MESS UP OTHERWISE WARM WX...AND WILL NOT GO WILD WITH MAX TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. AS FOR PRECIP...INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA ON WED (THOUGH WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER). THINGS GRADUALLY GET STORMIER INTO THURSDAY/THU NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON TIMING WE MAY TRY TO DRY OUT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT (ECMWF) OR NOT SEE FROPA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT (GFS). SO CHANCY POPS STILL IN ORDER THAT FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...THOUGH IN GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LOWER MI TODAY. SHRA AND OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. APN WILL TEND TO BE MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...AND PLN WILL START OUT IFR AND TREND TO MVFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE BETTER OFF...MOSTLY VFR BUT PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES. ALL SITES WILL TEND TO VFR TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME LOWER (MVFR) CIGS MAY REACH PLN AT MORNING AS COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN. WESTERLY BREEZE THRU THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO VEER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AND ONCE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW THEY SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND THE FAVORED COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREA, FROM THE MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AND POSSIBLY WAVES EARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS PAST EVENING AND IS NOW PUSHING A NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE...LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER JET...MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE THAN 0.05 TO 0.15 WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THESE SHOWERS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 0.13 INCH RECEIVED AT IRONWOOD AWOS. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN UPSTREAM (ASSOCIATED WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE) MAY LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER) AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IDEA FOLLOWS QPF OUTPUT BY THE MODELS FOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT IS PRODUCING CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1KFT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SKY COVER FORECAST...AS MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (STARTING TO SEE HINTS OF IT AT KIWD AT 4AM). WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOSE CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE MODELS SHIFT THE MOISTURE NORTHEAST AND INCREASED MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT THIS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE INCREASE IN MIXING TODAY WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BEHIND THE TROUGH. TRENDED WINDS UP IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO BETTER MIXING SHOWN ON 00Z MODEL RUNS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH TO MAYBE EVEN 30MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THESE INCREASED WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THIS MORNING. DID LINGER SOME FOG OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. FINALLY...HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER UNDER THE EXPECTATIONS OF SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND ITS MERGING WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL...DUE TO MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND WITH LIMITED MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...OPTED TO STICK WITH SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS. THE OTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH THAT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SWEEP A SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMIT POPS OVER THE LAND AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00Z MODELS SEEM TO DELAY THE PRECIP TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SHOWERS HAPPEN...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLING OF THE COLUMN TO THE WETBULB TEMP. WITH THE WETBULB0 VALUES AROUND 1600-3000FT THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO THE SURFACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE RAIN INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW (AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA). A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL KEEP A STEADY WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TOWARDS DAYBREAK (GUSTS TO 20-25MPH). LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH TIME SUN INTO MON NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT ON SUNDAY AND WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO SET UP. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER LAKE BREEZES COMING IN OFF THE WATER/ICE AREAS. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE RIDGE GETS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WHILE THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN FOR 12Z THU AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. AS THE RIDGE POKES UP INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 13C ON THU AND IF WE WOULD MIX THAT DOWN TO THE SFC...WOULD GET UP INTO THE MID 70S. ONLY PROBLEM IS WARM FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND SO THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WITH WARM SECTOR STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH...HAVING THUNDER IN THERE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AS AREA IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OVERRUN THE WARM FRONT AND GET WRUNG OUT OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERNGT...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA TO DVLP W-E...BRINGING PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS INTO SAT MRNG. THE BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX WITH A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES TROF. GUSTY W WINDS WL DVLP ON SAT UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE AND IN PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION... WHERE A LK BREEZE COMPONENT WL ALSO ENHANCE THE FLOW. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES BY EARLY AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A PARENT LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10-25KTS. AS THE FIRST TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAINING IN THE 10-25KT RANGE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 15KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS. LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER OVER HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE. RIVERS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE STARTED TO STEADY OUT ON THEIR RISES OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...SINCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THAT AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE BASINS. WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY (GENERALLY UNDER 0.15INCH)...EXPECT THOSE RIVERS LEVELS TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONE INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE IS CURRENTLY AT 9.57 FEET...WHICH IS THE 3RD HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD /60 YEARS OF DATA/. WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT UPSTREAM OF THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER...THE ONGOING SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WATER INTO THEIR BASINS EVEN WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW. THE MELT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN THOUGH AS NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AFTER THE RAIN THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...KC MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. OUR LONG PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT THINGS WILL TURN WARMER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY, SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DIVING INTO THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TO THE WEST, THERE IS A DECENT AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE DRYING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE. TODAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SIMILAR CONFIGURATION WITH THE QPF, THE GFS IS MORE INTENSE, SO THINKING THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER, WITH THAT SAID THE MASS FIELDS ARE COMPARABLE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO WC LOWER, AND SPREADING RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC13 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION LIKE THE ECMWF, WHICH SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRENDS OF THE RADAR ATTM. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 AS SFC TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96 DOWNSTATE. THERE IS A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN AND KRRL AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND AREAS NORTH OF M-32 THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE AS THE DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NOW, SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NW LOWER AND C UPPER. TONIGHT...AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850 MB AND LOWER RH IS AROUND 70%) AND WITH ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR, THAT WE GE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN E UPPER, AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -4C WITH THE SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 30S. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE N LOWER HIGHLANDS, AROUND GAYLORD AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S THERE AS WELL. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THERE APPEAR TO BE ACTUAL CHANGES ON THE HORIZON. UPPER FLOW FINALLY GETS UNSTUCK AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. AFTER ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE SQUEEZES BY SUPERIOR/EASTERN UPPER MI EARLY SUNDAY...RIDGING OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW...AND HANGS OUT THRU MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY STILL QUITE COOL...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SEEN AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL MODERATE IN PLACE AS EARLY MAY SUNSHINE FINALLY GETS A CHANCE TO DO SOMETHING. SO SUNNIER AND MILDER WX IS IN STORE EVENTUALLY...THOUGH THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. A FAIRLY POTENT 500MB VORT RIBBON WILL EXTEND FROM ISLE ROYALE TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON IN THE MORNING. IT/S PROGRESS EASTWARD WILL SET US UP FOR SUBSTANTIAL NVA AND DEEP DESCENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BUT UNTIL THEN...WE/LL BE FIGHTING OFF A SHOWER THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE BENEATH AND NORTH OF THE VORT RIBBON. SOME DPVA DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND BENEATH THE RIBBON. TO THE NORTH...WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT (-32C AT 500MB OVER EASTERN UPPER AT 12Z) AND CORRESPONDING STEEP LAPSE RATES (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 7.5-7.75C/KM). SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE THE MELTING LAYER LOWERS TO AROUND 1K FT THICK. WILL CUT OFF PRECIP AT 16Z...THOUGH COLD-AIR CUMULUS WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE CHILLY AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS -3 TO -4C) AND LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE FAR SE. SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME SUNDAY EVENING IN NORTHERN LOWER. SOME SIGNS OF MSLP TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE HANGING AROUND EASTERN UPPER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT WOULD HELP SOME RESIDUAL STRATOCU LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND POINTS NORTH. THE ARRIVAL OF BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD PRESENCE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LEFTOVER FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STILL...THINGS LOOKS PARTLY SUNNY AT WORST. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DIP A LITTLE LOWER. MAX TEMPS 50 TO 60F. REST OF THE FORECAST...UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE TIME IT MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND/OR SUPPRESS IT TOWARD NEXT...THOUGH THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS HAPPENS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MUCH WARMER PATTERN...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING MCS/S INTO THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING AS SOON AS WED NIGHT. THIS HAS CLEAR POTENTIAL TO MESS UP OTHERWISE WARM WX...AND WILL NOT GO WILD WITH MAX TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. AS FOR PRECIP...INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA ON WED (THOUGH WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER). THINGS GRADUALLY GET STORMIER INTO THURSDAY/THU NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON TIMING WE MAY TRY TO DRY OUT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT (ECMWF) OR NOT SEE FROPA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT (GFS). SO CHANCY POPS STILL IN ORDER THAT FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 SUMMARY: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. RESTRICTIONS: CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS OF THIS WRITING WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY MORNING ALL TERMINALS. ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG...BUT EXPECT CIGS WILL BE THE MORE RESTRICTIVE ELEMENT. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH VFR LIKELY TOWARDS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS: CALM/LIGHT-VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS /12G20KTS/ DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS SATURDAY EVENING. LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE. THUNDER: LOW END THUNDER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPARTS EAST OF THE REGION. THREAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO VEER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AND ONCE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW THEY SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND THE FAVORED COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREA, FROM THE MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AND POSSIBLY WAVES EARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARNOTT/JSL MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAYED WITH A RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW SPINNING TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINNING TO GET FLATTENED OUT BY AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON/BC COAST. OUR LOCATION BETWEEN THE HUDSON UPPER LOW AND WESTERN RIDGE HAS PLACED STRONG NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS JETTING IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AS WELL. THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPLY US WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THAT WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. BIGGEST ISSUE FOR PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR PRECIP. THIS FIRST WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER AND SPRINKLES OVER NW MN. THE MPX AND SPC WRFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF ALL SHOW THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISO-SCT SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO PULLED THE EXISTING 20 POP WE HAD SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. LOOKING AT MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE GFS/NAM...A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS TO HANG BACK ALONG THIS AXIS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE SECOND AND BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AS A ZONE OF STRONG FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SFC SENDS A BAND OF PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT REALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE GFS. ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE FGEN/ISENTROPIC FORCING...IT DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF. QUICK LOOK AT SOME RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE PROBLEM...THE GFS NEVER SATURATES THE ATMO BELOW H8. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...TEND TO BELIEVE PRECIP GENERATED WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR SO FAVORED A NON-GFS FORECAST FOR THIS PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN FRIDAY AS WE LOOK TO MIX UP TO AROUND 775 MB. ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY OUT IN WESTERN MN. TONIGHT... EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN WHERE TEMPERATURES END UP SETTLING TO. IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AROUND 40...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO AROUND 30 WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE STEADILY INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTHEAST YOU GET FROM I-94. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE STILL EARLY ENOUGH IN THE GROWING SEASON NORTH OF I-94 THAT NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NECESSARY YET. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO GENERALLY UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH WEAK SFC PRES PATTERNS ACRS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THRU THE REGION...MAINLY LATE SUN MRNG AND LATE SUN NIGHT...AND AFFECTING MAINLY W AND S MN WITH OCNL SHWRS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE DEEP MOISTURE IS FAIRLY CONFINED AND UPR LVL SUPPORT IS WEAK AT BEST. DID SHOW POPS INTO THE UPR CHC AND LOW-END LIKELY RANGE SUN MRNG DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR SUN NIGHT SO ONLY USED LOW-MID CHC RANGE. TEMPS WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURG THIS PERIOD...ESP BY TUE AS THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY ESTABLISHED AND SLY WINDS BECOME MORE PROMINENT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPR LVL TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE CALI COAST...SHIFTING SWD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE CO/KS REGION DURG THE DAY ON WED. AS THE LARGE TROF DRAGS MOISTURE WITH IT FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND HELPS INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER...THESE FEATURES WILL ALL STREAM INTO THE MID-TO-UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED INTO THU...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA TUE NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WX SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM-SECTORING CAN OCCUR AND IF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS/ ARE ADVECTED NWD ALONG WITH WARMER AIR. HAVE MAINTAINED TSTM MENTION FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. TEMPS DO CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND MID-TO-LATE WEEK WITH THE ENTIRE CWFA HAVING HIGHS CLIMB TO THE MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR I-90. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING ABOVE 800MB WHICH IS MIXING DOWN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL WE CAN BEGIN TO COOL THE SURFACE AND DECOUPLE THE WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SURFACE. SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED...THIS STILL APPEARS OVERDONE SO DID NOT PUT RAIN AT ANY TAF SITES...BUT KEPT VCSH AT THE WISCONSIN SITES AS THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOMORROW AND JUST MID CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE...SO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AFTER 13Z TOMORROW. KMSP...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DID NOT MENTION RAIN IN THE TAF...BUT BE AWARE THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE VERY QUIET. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAYED WITH A RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW SPINNING TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINNING TO GET FLATTENED OUT BY AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON/BC COAST. OUR LOCATION BETWEEN THE HUDSON UPPER LOW AND WESTERN RIDGE HAS PLACED STRONG NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS JETTING IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AS WELL. THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPLY US WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THAT WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. BIGGEST ISSUE FOR PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR PRECIP. THIS FIRST WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER AND SPRINKLES OVER NW MN. THE MPX AND SPC WRFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF ALL SHOW THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISO-SCT SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO PULLED THE EXISTING 20 POP WE HAD SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. LOOKING AT MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE GFS/NAM...A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS TO HANG BACK ALONG THIS AXIS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE SECOND AND BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AS A ZONE OF STRONG FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SFC SENDS A BAND OF PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT REALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE GFS. ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE FGEN/ISENTROPIC FORCING...IT DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF. QUICK LOOK AT SOME RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE PROBLEM...THE GFS NEVER SATURATES THE ATMO BELOW H8. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...TEND TO BELIEVE PRECIP GENERATED WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR SO FAVORED A NON-GFS FORECAST FOR THIS PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN FRIDAY AS WE LOOK TO MIX UP TO AROUND 775 MB. ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY OUT IN WESTERN MN. TONIGHT... EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN WHERE TEMPERATURES END UP SETTLING TO. IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AROUND 40...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO AROUND 30 WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE STEADILY INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTHEAST YOU GET FROM I-94. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE STILL EARLY ENOUGH IN THE GROWING SEASON NORTH OF I-94 THAT NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NECESSARY YET. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO GENERALLY UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH WEAK SFC PRES PATTERNS ACRS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THRU THE REGION...MAINLY LATE SUN MRNG AND LATE SUN NIGHT...AND AFFECTING MAINLY W AND S MN WITH OCNL SHWRS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE DEEP MOISTURE IS FAIRLY CONFINED AND UPR LVL SUPPORT IS WEAK AT BEST. DID SHOW POPS INTO THE UPR CHC AND LOW-END LIKELY RANGE SUN MRNG DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR SUN NIGHT SO ONLY USED LOW-MID CHC RANGE. TEMPS WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURG THIS PERIOD...ESP BY TUE AS THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY ESTABLISHED AND SLY WINDS BECOME MORE PROMINENT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPR LVL TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE CALI COAST...SHIFTING SWD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE CO/KS REGION DURG THE DAY ON WED. AS THE LARGE TROF DRAGS MOISTURE WITH IT FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND HELPS INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER...THESE FEATURES WILL ALL STREAM INTO THE MID-TO-UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED INTO THU...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA TUE NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WX SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM-SECTORING CAN OCCUR AND IF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS/ ARE ADVECTED NWD ALONG WITH WARMER AIR. HAVE MAINTAINED TSTM MENTION FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. TEMPS DO CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND MID-TO-LATE WEEK WITH THE ENTIRE CWFA HAVING HIGHS CLIMB TO THE MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR I-90. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MORE CLOUDY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTINESS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFSLAMP SHOWS. MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF SHOW SOME RATHER ROBUST SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM STC/MSP EAST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF FORCING...THINK THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT IS THERE TO INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR WI TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF TAF...RAIN WILL START MOVING INTO SW MN. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME SOUTH OF RWF...SO KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY FOR THIS. GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY DRIER FLOW...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. KMSP...ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN NOT REALLY INDICATED IN THE 12Z TAF IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE HRRR AND HOPWRF...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME -SHRA WILL COME BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAYED WITH A RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW SPINNING TO THE SW OF HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINNING TO GET FLATTENED OUT BY AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON/BC COAST. OUR LOCATION BETWEEN THE HUDSON UPPER LOW AND WESTERN RIDGE HAS PLACED STRONG NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS JETTING IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AS WELL. THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPLY US WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THAT WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. BIGGEST ISSUE FOR PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR PRECIP. THIS FIRST WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER AND SPRINKLES OVER NW MN. THE MPX AND SPC WRFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF ALL SHOW THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISO-SCT SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO PULLED THE EXISTING 20 POP WE HAD SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. LOOKING AT MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE GFS/NAM...A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS TO HANG BACK ALONG THIS AXIS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE SECOND AND BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AS A ZONE OF STRONG FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SFC SENDS A BAND OF PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS SHOWING UP SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT REALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE GFS. ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE FGEN/ISENTROPIC FORCING...IT DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF. QUICK LOOK AT SOME RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE PROBLEM...THE GFS NEVER SATURATES THE ATMO BELOW H8. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...TEND TO BELIEVE PRECIP GENERATED WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR SO FAVORED A NON-GFS FORECAST FOR THIS PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN FRIDAY AS WE LOOK TO MIX UP TO AROUND 775 MB. ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY OUT IN WESTERN MN. TONIGHT... EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN WHERE TEMPERATURES END UP SETTLING TO. IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AROUND 40...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO AROUND 30 WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE STEADILY INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTHEAST YOU GET FROM I-94. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE STILL EARLY ENOUGH IN THE GROWING SEASON NORTH OF I-94 THAT NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NECESSARY YET. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO GENERALLY UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH WEAK SFC PRES PATTERNS ACRS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THRU THE REGION...MAINLY LATE SUN MRNG AND LATE SUN NIGHT...AND AFFECTING MAINLY W AND S MN WITH OCNL SHWRS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE DEEP MOISTURE IS FAIRLY CONFINED AND UPR LVL SUPPORT IS WEAK AT BEST. DID SHOW POPS INTO THE UPR CHC AND LOW-END LIKELY RANGE SUN MRNG DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR SUN NIGHT SO ONLY USED LOW-MID CHC RANGE. TEMPS WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURG THIS PERIOD...ESP BY TUE AS THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY ESTABLISHED AND SLY WINDS BECOME MORE PROMINENT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPR LVL TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE CALI COAST...SHIFTING SWD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE CO/KS REGION DURG THE DAY ON WED. AS THE LARGE TROF DRAGS MOISTURE WITH IT FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND HELPS INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES CENTER...THESE FEATURES WILL ALL STREAM INTO THE MID-TO-UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED INTO THU...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA TUE NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WX SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM-SECTORING CAN OCCUR AND IF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS/ ARE ADVECTED NWD ALONG WITH WARMER AIR. HAVE MAINTAINED TSTM MENTION FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. TEMPS DO CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND MID-TO-LATE WEEK WITH THE ENTIRE CWFA HAVING HIGHS CLIMB TO THE MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR I-90. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH THIS EVENING FROM KMSP ON EAST. THIS LEADS TO A FOG CONCERN OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS IN BR FOR KRNH AND KEAU OVERNIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED TO THICKEN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS 18G25KTS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE MN TAF SITES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KMSP...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ALSO FORECAST TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE BR PROBLEM. STILL THINKING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS 18G25KTS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. NW WINDS 5 KTS BECOMING NE. MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. E WINDS 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. ESE WINDS 8-12 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
840 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 .UPDATE: Issued at 836 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 The going forecast remains on track, as mid and high clouds overspread the area from the west and northwest this evening. Thus, no changes were made to the forecast beyond minor adjustments to account for near-term trends. JP && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 Frontal boundary remains stalled along I-70 corridor. So main forecast issues in the short term are the winds and low temps for tonight. East winds to prevail north of front, while south winds to expected over southern MO and far southern IL. Some mid and high clouds north of front, but no precipitation expected as low and mid levels remain rather dry. Towards daybreak frontal boundary will begin to slowly move to the north as a warm front. As for low temps, will range from the upper 40s far north to the upper 50s over central and southern MO. Could see a pocket of colder temps over eastern Ozarks, so lowered temps a bit there. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 The main issue for at least the next several days will be the location of the east-west quasi-stationary front and resultant impact on temperatures. Guidance is good agreement moving the boundary northward on Monday morning to around a Moberly-Matoon line by early afternoon. While there will be a few more clouds around on Monday, the character of the air mass and low level flow regime is not expected to change. Thus it appears highs in the 80s to lower 90s will be the norm within the warm sector, and in the 70s to the north of the front. The front then sags south again on Monday night as surface high pressure builds southeastward from the Great Lakes region. This southward position doesn`t appear to last long however as the front is forecast to retreat northward again on Tuesday, draped across northern MO into central IL by late afternoon and exiting the CWA by late evening. This northward retreat is in response to falling pressures across the Plains and the movement of an initial low pressure wave into eastern Nebraska. The entire region will be well within the warm sector on Wednesday with highs area-wide in the 80s. The models have been overforecasting the surface dew points recently and this trend will persist for the next several days as high pressure in the northern Gulf is inhibiting southerly return flow. The combination of warm temps aloft and limited low level moisture will result in an air mass capped to surface-based convection through Wednesday. I think Wednesday night will remain quiet and mild with a general increase in clouds. Things begin to change on Thursday with shower and thunderstorm chances ramping up, especially Thursday night into Friday. We should see a more robust return of low level moisture as the Gulf opens up, and the western U.S. upper trof ejects northeastward across the Rockies and Plains into the upper MS valley sending a cold front into the area Thursday night. This front will temporarily stall across portions of southern MO and southern IL late Friday into Friday night, before lifting back northward on Saturday. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture. Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for KCOU and KUIN. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the south side of the front). Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...THEN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALSO TUESDAY. THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 100M+ HT FALLS. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MONTANA TOWARD ARIZONA. CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER MANITOBA WITH IT/S TROF STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS MID LEVEL TROF HAS RESULTED IN A PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO SOUTH OF MANHATTAN KS TOWARD EMPORIA AND SOUTH OF HAYS KS. THERE WAS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT THE MID LEVELS AND ALSO AT H85 ACROSS WESTERN SD AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FROM SD INTO NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE THESE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. WARMER AIR WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING H85 WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE H85 WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AS WELL NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDERS. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ECHOES ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND 4KM WRF HAVE PRECIP DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...THE NAM BETWEEN 06Z- 09...AND THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE ONLY MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BRISK EAST SURFACE FLOW. THIS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE FRONT NEARBY. THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...THUS HAVE LEFT DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AGAIN...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES WED. TRENDED WITH THE EC THAT HAS THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST ARE COMPARED TO THE COOLER GFS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION...A SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVING TO THE PLAINS. NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...HOWEVER FRONTAL PLACEMENT FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A KEY FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ENERGY MAY LAG AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW FRI/SAT ARE DRY. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT KOFK...KOMA...AND KLNK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 10Z SUNDAY DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATES SOME VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 700-500MB LEVEL. THIS RAIN IS INDICATIVE OF MOISTURE POOLING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND...FOR NOW...WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS INSIGNIFICANT. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW K INDICES INCREASING TO 30 TO 35C LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP EVEN SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THIS MOISTURE POOL AT 00Z THIS EVENING. SO FOLLOWING THE 00Z NAM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE WRN SANDHILLS. ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND DECAY AROUND 03Z-06Z. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUPPORTING THIS RAIN. HIGHS TODAY...FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST IS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH. THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND 80F AT NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTH PLATTE VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SRN NEB. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LOW AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING FROM THE HILLS INTO N CENTRAL KS. DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF N CENTRAL NEB...WHILE FAR SW NEB WARMS INTO THE UPPER 80S. MODELS ARE WAVERING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SW PUSH OF THE COLD AIR...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. A LIGHT MOVEMENT EITHER WAY COULD CAUSE A 10 PLUS DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS. ONE THING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY MONDAY PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE...INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO WARM N CENTRAL TO OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SO DID NOT TAKE HIGHS QUITE AS WARM IN THE SW. BY MONDAY EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS S DAKOTA AND MAY TAP PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEB. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CLOUD BASES A LITTLE LOWER AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY BL. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS BY THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EJECT OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. EACH WAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. STRONG CAP WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO SOME CONCERNS TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AND KEPT POPS AT OR LESS THAN 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH TEMPS COOLING FROM THE NW. THEN FOR WED AND THURS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED AND AT LEAST MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN AS BEST MOISTURE GETS TURNED TO THE NE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH AXIS TO QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOT MAY PLAY INTO THE AREA PENDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. CURRENT THOUGH IS MORE DRY SLOT THAN NOT AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL REMAIN SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL PICK UP A BIT SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR KVTN. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS...THERE ARE NO OTHER CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...DS/TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATES SOME VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 700-500MB LEVEL. THIS RAIN IS INDICATIVE OF MOISTURE POOLING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND...FOR NOW...WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS INSIGNIFICANT. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW K INDICES INCREASING TO 30 TO 35C LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP EVEN SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THIS MOISTURE POOL AT 00Z THIS EVENING. SO FOLLOWING THE 00Z NAM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE WRN SANDHILLS. ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND DECAY AROUND 03Z-06Z. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUPPORTING THIS RAIN. HIGHS TODAY...FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST IS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH. THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND 80F AT NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTH PLATTE VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SRN NEB. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LOW AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING FROM THE HILLS INTO N CENTRAL KS. DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF N CENTRAL NEB...WHILE FAR SW NEB WARMS INTO THE UPPER 80S. MODELS ARE WAVERING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SW PUSH OF THE COLD AIR...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. A LIGHT MOVEMENT EITHER WAY COULD CAUSE A 10 PLUS DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS. ONE THING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY MONDAY PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE...INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO WARM N CENTRAL TO OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SO DID NOT TAKE HIGHS QUITE AS WARM IN THE SW. BY MONDAY EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS S DAKOTA AND MAY TAP PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEB. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CLOUD BASES A LITTLE LOWER AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY BL. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS BY THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EJECT OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. EACH WAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. STRONG CAP WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO SOME CONCERNS TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AND KEPT POPS AT OR LESS THAN 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH TEMPS COOLING FROM THE NW. THEN FOR WED AND THURS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED AND AT LEAST MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN AS BEST MOISTURE GETS TURNED TO THE NE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH AXIS TO QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOT MAY PLAY INTO THE AREA PENDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. CURRENT THOUGH IS MORE DRY SLOT THAN NOT AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...NORTH AND WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER DISTURBANCE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO NERN NEB TONIGHT. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD MOVE INTO WRN NEB THIS EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND THE RAP MODEL INDICATES SOME VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 700-500MB LEVEL. THIS RAIN IS INDICATIVE OF MOISTURE POOLING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND...FOR NOW...WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS INSIGNIFICANT. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW K INDICES INCREASING TO 30 TO 35C LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP EVEN SHOWS SOME LIFT IN THIS MOISTURE POOL AT 00Z THIS EVENING. SO FOLLOWING THE 00Z NAM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE WRN SANDHILLS. ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND DECAY AROUND 03Z-06Z. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUPPORTING THIS RAIN. HIGHS TODAY...FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST IS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH. THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND 80F AT NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTH PLATTE VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SRN NEB. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LOW AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING FROM THE HILLS INTO N CENTRAL KS. DECENT TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF N CENTRAL NEB...WHILE FAR SW NEB WARMS INTO THE UPPER 80S. MODELS ARE WAVERING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SW PUSH OF THE COLD AIR...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. A LIGHT MOVEMENT EITHER WAY COULD CAUSE A 10 PLUS DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS. ONE THING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY MONDAY PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE...INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO WARM N CENTRAL TO OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SO DID NOT TAKE HIGHS QUITE AS WARM IN THE SW. BY MONDAY EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS S DAKOTA AND MAY TAP PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEB. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CLOUD BASES A LITTLE LOWER AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY BL. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS BY THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EJECT OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. EACH WAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. STRONG CAP WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO SOME CONCERNS TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AND KEPT POPS AT OR LESS THAN 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH TEMPS COOLING FROM THE NW. THEN FOR WED AND THURS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED AND AT LEAST MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN AS BEST MOISTURE GETS TURNED TO THE NE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH AXIS TO QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOT MAY PLAY INTO THE AREA PENDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. CURRENT THOUGH IS MORE DRY SLOT THAN NOT AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 08Z. WIND IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCREASING TO 10-14KT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE MAINE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY LATER ON IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... DEPARTING OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFF THE MAINE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM NEW YORK. TO THE WEST...MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LAKE CLOUDS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES. A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL KEEP SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE FROST ADVISORY AS CLEAR SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO MONROE COUNTY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE LAKE CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING ARE A BIT OF A HAMPER TO THE FROST FORECAST BUT EXPECT THE MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST TO BRING IN DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS AS UPSTREAM OBS AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY CALM...FEEL THAT MAY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS FALL TO OR BELOW 5 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM RUNS ALSO SHOWING THIS. HAVE LEFT WYOMING...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES OUT OF THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE THE GROWING SEASON IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL MAY 15TH. THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FROST FORMATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A CONTINUED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A CONTINUED MID LEVEL TROUGH/COLD AIR COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCES A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITHIN DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY FADE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR COUPLED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD. THEN AT NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO RAPIDLY ERODE. WEDNESDAY CLOUDS WILL AGAIN RETURN FROM THE WEST...THESE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SHOULD BE GREATER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND START OF PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WHILE ALSO USHERING IN WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG LLJ WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FORWARD. THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. FOR NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SUCH THAT SOME SUNSHINE WILL BREAK OUT FROM THE CLOUDS FROM THE STATE LINE TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IF THIS SUNSHINE IS REALIZED A WARM AFTERNOON IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. EVENTUALLY THIS WARM FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WARM AIRMASS FRIDAY. ALONG THIS FRONT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL FORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO BE EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE SURFACE WAVE POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER ON SATURDAY OR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT ON FRIDAY...WHICH EVEN THOUGH 850S HPA TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SOLAR HEATING AND LEAVE FRIDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS AND ABOVE 50F FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS SUNDAY COULD FEATURE SUNSHINE (WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES) OR CLOUDY AND RAIN (LIKELY COOLER TEMPERATURES). && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE MAINE TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY TO WANE AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. TO THE WEST...SOME LAKE CLOUDS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT EXPECT THESE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED IN WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS OCCURS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS WNY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FROM HAMLIN BEACH EAST THROUGH 2AM THEN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010-011- 013-014-019-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES....MAINLY OVER THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY OF NEW YORK...WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... A TOUCH MILDER /0-2 DEG/ ON THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE FROM 730 PM UPDATE. MOST OF STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY. 730 PM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS KEEPING UP WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FROM DIURNAL HEATING ARE FALLING APART...EXCEPT FOR FOCUS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ALSO...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS QUICK TO EXIT...925-850MB RH FIELDS IN NAM AND RUC MODELS SUGGEST STRATOCUMULUS WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT MONDAY MORNING. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AT 330 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ONIDA COUNTY. FOR TONIGHT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT IN THE NRN CWA ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY INTO THE LATE EVENING PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ANY FROST FORMATION IS UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVER JAMES BAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE/TUE NIGHT THEN TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WEAKER WINDS AND PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED FROST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED HERE. MAX TEMPS MON/TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT WARMER. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THU NGT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH 70S. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT PROBABLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE EAST. DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND ON WHERE THE NEXT STORM TRACKS NE. KEPT CHC POPS BOTH DAYS BUT SATURDAY MAY END UP DRY BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SUNDAY LOW FROM THE SW. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. KRME-KSYR CIG DIPPING INTO 2-3 KFT AGL RANGE LATER TONIGHT. KRME ALSO TO STILL SEE LINGERING SCT -SHRA FOR A TIME. LESS MOISTURE TOWARDS KITH- KBGM...BUT CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR. THE BORDERLINE MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WNW WINDS INITIALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE VEERING MORE NW IN THE TEENS RANGE MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT TO WED...MAINLY VFR. WED NIGHT TO FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
824 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY LATER ON IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... DEPARTING OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS EVENING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. NEAR TERM MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND FURTHER AWAY FROM NEW YORK. ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES LINGERING DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL KEEP SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST AND LIGHTS BECOME LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO MONROE COUNTY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. USED THE RECENTLY WELL PERFORMING NAM12 AND SREF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM...FEEL THAT MAY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS FALL TO OR BELOW 5 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ALSO SHOWING THIS. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT TO COVER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION EARLY IN THIS GROWING SEASON. HAVE LEFT WYOMING...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES OUT OF THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE THE GROWING SEASON IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL MAY 15TH. THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FROST FORMATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A CONTINUED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A CONTINUED MID LEVEL TROUGH/COLD AIR COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCES A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITHIN DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY FADE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR COUPLED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD. THEN AT NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO RAPIDLY ERODE. WEDNESDAY CLOUDS WILL AGAIN RETURN FROM THE WEST...THESE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SHOULD BE GREATER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND START OF PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WHILE ALSO USHERING IN WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG LLJ WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FORWARD. THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. FOR NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SUCH THAT SOME SUNSHINE WILL BREAK OUT FROM THE CLOUDS FROM THE STATE LINE TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IF THIS SUNSHINE IS REALIZED A WARM AFTERNOON IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. EVENTUALLY THIS WARM FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WARM AIRMASS FRIDAY. ALONG THIS FRONT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL FORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO BE EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE SURFACE WAVE POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER ON SATURDAY OR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT ON FRIDAY...WHICH EVEN THOUGH 850S HPA TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SOLAR HEATING AND LEAVE FRIDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS AND ABOVE 50F FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS SUNDAY COULD FEATURE SUNSHINE (WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES) OR CLOUDY AND RAIN (LIKELY COOLER TEMPERATURES). && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE MAINE TONIGHT. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT THE LOW EXITS THE MAINE COAST. QUICKLY ERODING DIURNAL CLOUDS OVER WNY AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FROM HAMLIN BEACH EAST THROUGH 2AM THEN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010- 011-013-014-019-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WCH NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES....MAINLY OVER THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY OF NEW YORK...WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 730 PM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS KEEPING UP WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FROM DIURNAL HEATING ARE FALLING APART...EXCEPT FOR FOCUS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ALSO...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS QUICK TO EXIT...925-850MB RH FIELDS IN NAM AND RUC MODELS SUGGEST STRATOCUMULUS WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT MONDAY MORNING. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AT 330 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ONIDA COUNTY. FOR TONIGHT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT IN THE NRN CWA ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY INTO THE LATE EVENING PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ANY FROST FORMATION IS UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVER JAMES BAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE/TUE NIGHT THEN TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WEAKER WINDS AND PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED FROST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED HERE. MAX TEMPS MON/TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT WARMER. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THU NGT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH 70S. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT PROBABLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE EAST. DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND ON WHERE THE NEXT STORM TRACKS NE. KEPT CHC POPS BOTH DAYS BUT SATURDAY MAY END UP DRY BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SUNDAY LOW FROM THE SW. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. KRME-KSYR CIG DIPPING INTO 2-3 KFT AGL RANGE LATER TONIGHT. KRME ALSO TO STILL SEE LINGERING SCT -SHRA FOR A TIME. LESS MOISTURE TOWARDS KITH- KBGM...BUT CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR. THE BORDERLINE MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WNW WINDS INITIALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE VEERING MORE NW IN THE TEENS RANGE MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT TO WED...MAINLY VFR. WED NIGHT TO FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
715 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MOVING GRADUALLY SOUTH. THERE ALSO WAS A SURFACE TROUGH NOTED OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...CLOSE TO WHERE LATE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED CU AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS NOT REGISTERING OVER THE AREA... AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE...THE RAP FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF AT LEAST WEAK SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM JUST EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-TO-SOUTH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS OCCURS...850MB THETA-E VALUES ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DRY FROM THE NORTH...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES WEAKEN FROM NEAR 8C/KM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 6C/KM BY 12Z. MUCAPE DOES NOT REGISTER ON THE RAP...AND NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH RAP SOUNDINGS...APPEAR TO REMAIN STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. QPF IS NIL...AND WRF GUIDANCE IS DRY AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE RAP IN INTRODUCING AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 64 LATE...ALONG WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MID- LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SAME AREA BY 12Z. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF GENEROUS CLOUD COVER UNTIL SOME INCREASE LATE...FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK DPVA WITHIN THE W- NWLY ALOFT...MOVING ATOP THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN PLACE...AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 21-06Z. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE SWEET POP ALONG A SHARP NW-SE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FORECAST TO LIE NEAR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50KTS. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH BL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND THUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPARSE. INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIE OUT. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON MON REMAINS BELOW NORMAL GIVEN A FRONTAL ZONE BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIANGLE. IN FACT...THE 18Z MAV MOS REDUCED MAXES FOR MONDAY AT LEAST A CATEGORY...IN GENERAL CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS. OPTED TO REDUCE HIGHS ON MONDAY BASED ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENCE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID NOT REDUCE THEM FOR NOW AS FAR AS WHAT THE LATEST MAV WOULD SUGGEST. CURRENT HIGHS FOR MONDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPROACHING KCLT. CERTAINLY...THE EXACT LOCATION OF FRONT WILL DETERMINE HIGHS TOMORROW WITH A SHARP NE-SW GRADIENT EXPECTED. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S N/NE TO LOWER 60S SOUTH/SW. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... TO BEGIN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/FRONTAL WAVE MAY LIMIT PRECIP INITIALLY. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION...STRONGEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...IF SOME STORMS DO DEVELOP...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-50 KNOTS (HIGHEST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY)...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AND WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT AND GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST...OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE EVEN MORE. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY...BUT THINK THE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP AND ALSO ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/TIMING...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP NE TO SW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION) SHOULD WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE EAST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE/BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MOVING RAIN IN ON SATURDAY AND THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THAT THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER IN MANY AREAS THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES... REMAINING MORE NORTHERLY LONGER TOWARD KRWI. IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OF COURSE CONDITIONS COULD GO BRIEFLY SUB-VFR...BUT THE CURRENT PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LIMITED...AND BEST IN A RELATIVE SENSE TOWARD KRWI. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...DJF/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RAIN AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. BACK EDGE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY AS OF 0230 UTC. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AROUND 06-07 UTC...BUT DID KEEP SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE LATEST PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LATEST 00 UTC HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP NORTH OF BILLINGS MT. HRRR BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND 07 UTC...AND THEN DISSIPATES BY AROUND 11 UTC BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE RAP DID NOT INITIALIZE AS WELL BUT DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THAT DRY UP BEFORE REACHING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS WE HEAD PAST MIDNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION HERE WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 QUICK UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS AS PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BACK EDGE OF MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FROM AROUND SHERWOOD SOUTHWEST TO KENMARE AND STANLEY. WEST OF THIS LINE...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS OVER FOR THE EVENING. BEST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS OVER BOTTINEAU... ROLETTE...MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTIES...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER RENVILLE AND WARD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELIMINATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING AS TRAILING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS DRY AND ANY PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND. ACTUALLY A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON POPS BASED ON HRRR/RAP OUTPUT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW. WEATHER CAMERAS FROM RAY...PORTAL AND CARPIO INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOK WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY AREAS...PREVIOUS INSOLATION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. WITH THE BACK EDGE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE THE EXTENT TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 06 UTC. FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW. BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIMITED TO WILLISTON AND MINOT AND POSSIBLY JAMESTOWN TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT DICKINSON BISMARCK. PRECIPITATION IS JUST MOVING OUT OF KMOT WITH A BROKEN CEILING AT 200 FEET. IFR CEILING AT KISN EARLIER HAS MOVED OUT. BASED ON THE 23Z RAP KEPT A MENTION OF A SCATTERED LAYER AT WILLISTON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED HERE. HIT MINOT HARDER WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS AND FOG. MINOT RAP SOUNDING IS SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF LIFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG. CURRENTLY LOW VFR CEILINGS AT JAMESTOWN BUT RAP SOUNDING DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO JAMESTOWN. HOWEVER WITH ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND MOST PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF JAMESTOWN NOT SURE IF THIS WILL OCCUR. WILL LEAVE OUT THE IFR CEILINGS FOR NOW AT KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RAIN HAS BEEN FILLING IN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...FINALLY SATURATING DOWN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS MODELS SHOW THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HARVEY HAS HAD SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASS JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA...SO INCLUDED SOME RAIN AND SNOW MENTION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S. DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RADAR RETURNS HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME SATURATING AND NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LIKELY POPS SLOWLY RAMPING UP TO DEFINITE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM KMBX (MINOT...ND) IS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS SOURIS RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER GROUND TRUTH AS FAR AS PRECIP REPORTS IS FURTHER WEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A WILLISTON TO ESTEVAN (SASK) LINE. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH A RUC/NAM SOLUTION...PRIMARILY USING RUC AS GUIDANCE THROUGH 09Z THEN TRENDING TOWARD NAM FOR MONDAY. TONIGHT...A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO W CNTRL MN TONIGHT. WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H700 FG FORCING WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AS THE VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CIGS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 4K FT IN PORTIONS OF NW ND...GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE SFC. OVERALL...HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR A BIT BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND EXPECTING ONLY TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OVER DVL BASIN. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THIS REGION WITH LIKELIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AS ACTIVITY GETS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. BY 12Z...NAM SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA AND DRYING THINGS UP SHORTLY AFT 12Z. AGAIN...HAVE USED RUC AS GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY POPS THROUGH 09Z WITH NAM FOR THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...THEN DRY ON MONDAY. ONE CAVEAT...RUC DOES HOLD ON TO SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS AREA (MORE IN LINE WITH NAM). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND DID MENTION SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF THERE IS A CHANGE OVER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMP TO CLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SW FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING AND EJECTING OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN DAKOTAS TUE MORNING. SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AND HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. 12Z GFS SHOWING INCREASING H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND ONE INCH BY 18Z. GFS ALSO SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORMING MID DAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELIES IN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...WITH NAM FOCUSING ON DVL BASIN...WHICH IS WHERE I WILL LIMIT LIKELIES FOR TUE AFTN. CURRENT QPF VALUES APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS. WED...INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO EAST DURING DAY WED...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY UP...HOWEVER MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRYING OUT THE DVL LAKE BASIN...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES RATHER BULLISH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND EVEN THE NAM SHOWS SOME POPS OVER THE AREA. INHERITED CHANCE POPS THEREFORE SEEMS REASONABLE...SUPPORTED BY CONSALL..AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO TRY AND TIME CLEARING FOR WED AFTN. WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY ALL THE MODELS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS COVER AND ACTUAL TIMING OF SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME RAIN WILL START MOVING INTO THE KDVL AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE OTHER NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD MVFR IS LIKELY SO WILL KEEP CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. WILL MAKE UPDATES FOR ANY RAIN HARD ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MORNING WITH CIGS IN THE 5000-10000 FT RANGE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 12 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER AVIATION...JR HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 QUICK UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS AS PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BACK EDGE OF MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FROM AROUND SHERWOOD SOUTHWEST TO KENMARE AND STANLEY. WEST OF THIS LINE...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS OVER FOR THE EVENING. BEST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS OVER BOTTINEAU... ROLETTE...MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTIES...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER RENVILLE AND WARD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELIMINATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING AS TRAILING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS DRY AND ANY PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND. ACTUALLY A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON POPS BASED ON HRRR/RAP OUTPUT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW. WEATHER CAMERAS FROM RAY...PORTAL AND CARPIO INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOK WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY AREAS...PREVIOUS INSOLATION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. WITH THE BACK EDGE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE THE EXTENT TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 06 UTC. FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW. BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIMITED TO WILLISTON AND MINOT THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT DICKINSON BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MINOT AREA AROUND 03 UTC. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH IFR CEILINGS REPORTED AT KGGW AND KOLF FOR SEVERAL HOURS...NOW JUST MOVING INTO KISN. KSDY AND WATFORD CITY REMAIN VFR. WILL ADD A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AT KISN AND PROBABLY AT KMOT AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. WITH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW...COULD SEE THIS LAYER REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE BORDER...AND UNFORTUNATELY KISN AND KMOT WOULD BE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR CEILINGS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RADAR RETURNS HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME SATURATING AND NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LIKELY POPS SLOWLY RAMPING UP TO DEFINITE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM KMBX (MINOT...ND) IS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS SOURIS RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER GROUND TRUTH AS FAR AS PRECIP REPORTS IS FURTHER WEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A WILLISTON TO ESTEVAN (SASK) LINE. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH A RUC/NAM SOLUTION...PRIMARILY USING RUC AS GUIDANCE THROUGH 09Z THEN TRENDING TOWARD NAM FOR MONDAY. TONIGHT...A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO W CNTRL MN TONIGHT. WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H700 FG FORCING WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AS THE VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CIGS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 4K FT IN PORTIONS OF NW ND...GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE SFC. OVERALL...HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR A BIT BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND EXPECTING ONLY TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OVER DVL BASIN. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THIS REGION WITH LIKELIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AS ACTIVITY GETS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. BY 12Z...NAM SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA AND DRYING THINGS UP SHORTLY AFT 12Z. AGAIN...HAVE USED RUC AS GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY POPS THROUGH 09Z WITH NAM FOR THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...THEN DRY ON MONDAY. ONE CAVEAT...RUC DOES HOLD ON TO SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS AREA (MORE IN LINE WITH NAM). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND DID MENTION SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF THERE IS A CHANGE OVER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMP TO CLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SW FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING AND EJECTING OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN DAKOTAS TUE MORNING. SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AND HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. 12Z GFS SHOWING INCREASING H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND ONE INCH BY 18Z. GFS ALSO SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORMING MID DAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELIES IN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...WITH NAM FOCUSING ON DVL BASIN...WHICH IS WHERE I WILL LIMIT LIKELIES FOR TUE AFTN. CURRENT QPF VALUES APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS. WED...INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO EAST DURING DAY WED...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY UP...HOWEVER MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRYING OUT THE DVL LAKE BASIN...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES RATHER BULLISH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND EVEN THE NAM SHOWS SOME POPS OVER THE AREA. INHERITED CHANCE POPS THEREFORE SEEMS REASONABLE...SUPPORTED BY CONSALL..AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO TRY AND TIME CLEARING FOR WED AFTN. WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY ALL THE MODELS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS COVER AND ACTUAL TIMING OF SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME RAIN WILL START MOVING INTO THE KDVL AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE OTHER NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD MVFR IS LIKELY SO WILL KEEP CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. WILL MAKE UPDATES FOR ANY RAIN HARD ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MORNING WITH CIGS IN THE 5000-10000 FT RANGE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 12 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER AVIATION...JR HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 LATEST LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FROM KJMS SOUTHWEST TO NAPOLEON...WHICH IS OCCURRING ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. DURATION OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MINUTES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS REPORTED. THIS WILL QUICKLY SCOOT AWAY FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB 120KT JET IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...HAS DEVELOPED AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM GLASGOW NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RAP13 TRACKS THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION FIELD INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER AND EXPANDED THEM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST BASED ON THE RAP SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO REGIONAL RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DETECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM DEVILS LAKE TO HARVEY...WEST INTO GARRISON AND BEULAH MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE SURFACE OBS HAVE INDICATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE SURFACE. STILL THINK MOST OF THIS IS FALLING AS VIRGA. HOWEVER...A FEW RAINDROPS STILL COULD REACH THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 ELEVATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-KNOT JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. PRELIMINARY 00Z KBIS SOUNDING DATA INDICATES VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WITH MOST OF THESE RAIN SHOWERS FALLING AS VIRGA. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN DROPS REACHING THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THERE IS LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE ZONE THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING ONLY VIRGA OR TRACE AMOUNTS. A FEW LOCALS COULD SEE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS. THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S NORTHEAST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST...EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS/EXPANDS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES - MAINLY IN THE COLORADO AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH (4-CORNERS AREA) TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL US. FOR NORTH DAKOTA...THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES - MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD TOTAL 5-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE INTO KISN AND KDIK BETWEEN 09Z-11Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A VCSH WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KDIK WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SURGE OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KDIK BY 04Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1050 AM PDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BRING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND A LOWER DECK WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TODAY CONFINED TO THE NORTH COAST, EVEN THEN IT`S PROBABLY NOT GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANYTHING. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. -SVEN && .MARINE...UPDATED 03/1030 PDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KT TODAY. WESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH STEEP WIND GENERATED WAVES. SEAS PEAK AT 12 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTH. MODERATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SIMILARLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM PDT SAT MAY 3 2014/ DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THIS MORNING. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE PRODUCED A DECENT MARINE PUSH WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF LOW AND MID CLOUD ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES NOW, BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT LEAST FOR TODAY, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND EVEN THAT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE. INLAND, WE`LL SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY 60S AND LOW 70S. THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD NW OREGON AND WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY, BUT ENOUGH ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SW OREGON. THE ENTIRE WEST SIDE AND MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT WITH THE FRONT, BUT AS USUAL IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER ON THE EAST SIDE AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY, BUT IT DOES LOOK RATHER BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE USUAL SPOTS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY, COOL PERIOD OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD POOL MONDAY EVENING, THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST MID NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD BE A DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO HINT AT CLOUDS AND RAIN SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PACNW. TO WHAT DEGREE THIS AFFECTS US WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. WE`VE GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AND I SEE NO REASON TO MEDDLE WITH IT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEK, ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR AT LEAST WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW RAINFALL BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD, OF COURSE, BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST SIDE, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY RESIDE IN OUR FORECAST. -WRIGHT && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
840 AM PDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BRING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND A LOWER DECK WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TODAY CONFINED TO THE NORTH COAST, EVEN THEN IT`S PROBABLY NOT GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANYTHING. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI && .MARINE...UPDATED 03/0500 PDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KT TODAY. WESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH STEEP WIND GENERATED WAVES. SEAS PEAK AT 12 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTH. MODERATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SIMILARLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. SPILDE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM PDT SAT MAY 3 2014/ DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THIS MORNING. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE PRODUCED A DECENT MARINE PUSH WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF LOW AND MID CLOUD ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES NOW, BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT LEAST FOR TODAY, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND EVEN THAT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE. INLAND, WE`LL SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY 60S AND LOW 70S. THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD NW OREGON AND WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY, BUT ENOUGH ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SW OREGON. THE ENTIRE WEST SIDE AND MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT WITH THE FRONT, BUT AS USUAL IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER ON THE EAST SIDE AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY, BUT IT DOES LOOK RATHER BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE USUAL SPOTS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY, COOL PERIOD OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD POOL MONDAY EVENING, THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST MID NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD BE A DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO HINT AT CLOUDS AND RAIN SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PACNW. TO WHAT DEGREE THIS AFFECTS US WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. WE`VE GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AND I SEE NO REASON TO MEDDLE WITH IT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEK, ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR AT LEAST WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW RAINFALL BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD, OF COURSE, BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST SIDE, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY RESIDE IN OUR FORECAST. -WRIGHT && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1104 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 644 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014 AMS HAS BECOME QUITE STABLE (SEE 00Z KUNR SOUNDING) WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WRN SD SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FCST...WHILE ALSO CUTTING BACK ON POPS. REST OF FCST LARGELY UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COOL FRONT HAD STALLED FROM CENTRAL MT INTO WESTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST IA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT/ND SUPPORTING BAND OF POST FRONTAL -SHRA FROM EASTERN MT INTO CENTRAL SD...BUT HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA. ACTIVITY MAY YET EXPAND PER LOCAL WRF/18Z RAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY RUSHES PAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE. SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE AS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH OF CWA BRINGING JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW -SHRA/DIURNALLY DRIVEN -TSRA GIVEN WEAK MLCAPE. ACTIVITY WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE AND BEST WAVE MOVES ACROSS ND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/TIGHT ISOTHERMS...SO TRENDED COOLISH IN THE NORTH AND WARMISH IN THE SOUTH/WEST. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014 WEST TO SWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL START THE WEEK WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA. FOR THE MID-WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES WITH STRONGER SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BRINGING GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014 ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NWRN SD...PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBE. SOME MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SATURDAY...MAINLY ON THE SD PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...HELGESON LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S....AN UPPER LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN WI. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS SEEN FROM 00Z MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 11-3.9UM IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAS RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY FOG FORM ACROSS WI AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAIN...CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS. WEST OF THE MS RIVER PLENTY OF MIXING EXISTS TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. UPSTREAM...MORE CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA INTO MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LAKE WINNIPEG UPPER LOW. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING OUT OF THESE...THOUGH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST EVENING...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MODIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 8-10C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO 10-13C OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ATTENTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS MOSTLY ON THE LAKE WINNIPEG UPPER LOW...AND A 110 KT UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER JET STREAK TRAVELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE BEING IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION TODAY...THE 03.00Z GFS PRODUCES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 03.00Z SPCWRF-NMM PRODUCES SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 03.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL DEPICT LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING. AS WE APPROACH 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THESE FORCING FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA. FOR SOME REASON THE 03.00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL NOT PRODUCING QPF OR MUCH LIFT...DESPITE HAVE A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL. MEANWHILE...THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...NAM AND ECMWF ALL DEPICT A BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER 09-12Z SUNDAY. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS IDEA AND BOOSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS 50 IN THE MITCHELL IOWA COUNTY VICINITY. DESPITE AN INFLUX OF SOME CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN AROUND TO COMBINE WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 7-10C AT 18Z TO BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOOKS BREEZY AS WELL WITH 925MB WINDS BLOWING AT 20-25 KT. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH ALLOW COLDER LOW LEVEL CANADIAN AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO 0-4C BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE F-GEN AND A BREEZE TURNING NORTHERLY WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME...BUT ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STARTING OFF WITH SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...THE 03.00Z GFS DEPICTS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FORCING...WHEREAS THE 03.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL HAVE A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY AND KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH...60-70 PERCENT...OVER THIS ZONE. THIS BAND OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY A MORNING IMPACT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WEAKENS. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS... COMPARED TO SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN STUCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS THEN PROGGED TO START PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE REGION...FORCED BY A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE RAIN FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IN PAST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 03.00Z GFS AND NAM ARE NOW DRY. THE 03.00Z CANADIAN STILL DEPICTS A LITTLE LIGHT QPF. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE GOING...BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THESE CHANCES COULD BE REMOVED. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE OTHERWISE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION EACH DAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY SPEAKING CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL WI WITH DRY AIR AND A LIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER GETS MORE ACTIVE. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD...PUTTING THE AREA INTO A WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS OVERALL ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEST COAST TROUGH PROGRESSION...AS WELL AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WEST COAST TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AT US. 850MB COMPUTED CAPE FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER IA AT 12Z WED...BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN. ELEVATED CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AND DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSITION OF THIS ROUND MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE 03.00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 03.00Z GFS... SUGGESTING IN UPPER MI VERSUS ALONG I-90. SHOULD THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF OCCUR...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK QUITE WARM GIVEN HOW THE WEATHER HAS BEEN. ECMWF PUSHES LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WI FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT TOO FAR OFF EITHER. COLD FRONT CROSSES SOMETIME EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO SEE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IMPACTS THE AREA. 03.00Z ECMWF SAYS THIS CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND MOST OF THE AREA SEES CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY 30-40 PERCENT CONSENSUS CHANCES SEEM WARRANTED. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY SO ONLY HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCES THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH...PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH RESULTS IN SCATTERED -SHRA. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE MESO MODELS WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC LIFT STILL INDICATED SOUTH OF THERE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COULD RESULT IN ISOLD ACTIVITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS ARE GOING TO BE VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN. CIG HEIGHTS WILL STAY VFR. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SLATED TO SPIN SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TO ACROSS IA ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALL FAVOR A RELATIVELY THIN BAND OF -SHRA WITH THE FEATURE...TRENDING IT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. CLOSE ENOUGH TO KRST TO WARRANT A VCSH FOR NOW THOUGH. FOR WINDS...GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ISN/T THAT MUCH OVER THE EXPECTED GRADIENT WINDS HOWEVER. THIS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 RUNOFF CONTINUES TO FILTER THROUGH THE TRIBUTARIES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE CURRENTLY THE ONLY TRIBUTARY SITE IN FLOOD...BUT THE STAGE IS FALLING AND SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING. ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL RISING. PRESENTLY WABASHA THE ONLY SITE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBERG DAM 10 WILL FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL NO MAJOR RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP GET THE TRIBUTARIES DOWN BEFORE POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. HRRR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM STILL INDICATES MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE HRRR. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT IN THE SW CWA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SFC FRONT. FOG MAY BE BRIEFLY DENSE BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FOG REMAINING PATCHY. IN ADDITION...MORE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING KEEPING FOG PATCHY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPTS WL LIKELY MIX INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS SRN WI FROM THE WEST. EXPECT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9 DEGREES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INDICATIVE OF WEAK CHANNELED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THIS AFTN MAY TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SMALL THREAT SPREADING IN THIS AFTN...SO WL EXPAND LOW POPS TO INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANY ISOLD -SHRA ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER FAR SRN WI LATER TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME -RA TO PUSH INTO LAFAYETTE COUNTY BY 12Z/SUN. SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. NAM/GFS SHOWING BEST 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS REMAINING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DO GET CLIPPED BY THIS FEATURE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...AS ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE...WITH MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH WEST NORTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ALLOWING SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS MONDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MAY END UP BEING A DRY DAY IF BETTER MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA. INFLUENCE OF HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR OVERALL TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DIFFER AT TIMES WITH FEATURES. THEY KEEP HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE...AND MILDER INLAND. 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. THIS SHOULD BRING A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY TOWARD WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME...THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY. MODELS BRING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING A FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTENING UP SOMEWHAT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED CAPES GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH EVEN ELEVATED PARCELS ARE FIGHTING A STRONG CAP ALOFT. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A WARM DAY TO MOST OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SUGGEST A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES. PROBLEM FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA...WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS WITHOUT EXTRA UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. CERTAINLY A SYSTEM/SETUP TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... PARTIAL CLEARING...LIGHT SFC WINDS...AND LINGERING LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MAY BE PATCHY DENSE BUT HOPING THAT INCREASING W-NW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SCT-BKN STRATUS PREVENTS MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TAF PERIOD WITH A ISOLD -SHRA TO WATCH FOR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. MARINE... WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MRNG AND CONTINUING THIS AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. GL COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEASURE SEA SURFACE WATER TEMP IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. EXPECT THE WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...SM/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S....AN UPPER LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN WI. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS SEEN FROM 00Z MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 11-3.9UM IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAS RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY FOG FORM ACROSS WI AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAIN...CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS. WEST OF THE MS RIVER PLENTY OF MIXING EXISTS TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. UPSTREAM...MORE CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA INTO MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LAKE WINNIPEG UPPER LOW. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING OUT OF THESE...THOUGH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST EVENING...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MODIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 8-10C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO 10-13C OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ATTENTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS MOSTLY ON THE LAKE WINNIPEG UPPER LOW...AND A 110 KT UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER JET STREAK TRAVELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE BEING IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION TODAY...THE 03.00Z GFS PRODUCES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 03.00Z SPCWRF-NMM PRODUCES SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 03.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL DEPICT LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING. AS WE APPROACH 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THESE FORCING FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA. FOR SOME REASON THE 03.00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL NOT PRODUCING QPF OR MUCH LIFT...DESPITE HAVE A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL. MEANWHILE...THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...NAM AND ECMWF ALL DEPICT A BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER 09-12Z SUNDAY. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS IDEA AND BOOSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS 50 IN THE MITCHELL IOWA COUNTY VICINITY. DESPITE AN INFLUX OF SOME CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN AROUND TO COMBINE WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 7-10C AT 18Z TO BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOOKS BREEZY AS WELL WITH 925MB WINDS BLOWING AT 20-25 KT. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH ALLOW COLDER LOW LEVEL CANADIAN AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO 0-4C BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE F-GEN AND A BREEZE TURNING NORTHERLY WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME...BUT ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STARTING OFF WITH SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...THE 03.00Z GFS DEPICTS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FORCING...WHEREAS THE 03.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL HAVE A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY AND KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH...60-70 PERCENT...OVER THIS ZONE. THIS BAND OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY A MORNING IMPACT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WEAKENS. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS... COMPARED TO SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN STUCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS THEN PROGGED TO START PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE REGION...FORCED BY A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE RAIN FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IN PAST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 03.00Z GFS AND NAM ARE NOW DRY. THE 03.00Z CANADIAN STILL DEPICTS A LITTLE LIGHT QPF. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE GOING...BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THESE CHANCES COULD BE REMOVED. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE OTHERWISE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION EACH DAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY SPEAKING CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL WI WITH DRY AIR AND A LIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER GETS MORE ACTIVE. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD...PUTTING THE AREA INTO A WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS OVERALL ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEST COAST TROUGH PROGRESSION...AS WELL AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WEST COAST TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AT US. 850MB COMPUTED CAPE FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER IA AT 12Z WED...BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN. ELEVATED CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AND DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSITION OF THIS ROUND MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE 03.00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 03.00Z GFS... SUGGESTING IN UPPER MI VERSUS ALONG I-90. SHOULD THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF OCCUR...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK QUITE WARM GIVEN HOW THE WEATHER HAS BEEN. ECMWF PUSHES LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WI FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT TOO FAR OFF EITHER. COLD FRONT CROSSES SOMETIME EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO SEE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IMPACTS THE AREA. 03.00Z ECMWF SAYS THIS CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND MOST OF THE AREA SEES CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY 30-40 PERCENT CONSENSUS CHANCES SEEM WARRANTED. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY SO ONLY HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCES THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO DESCEND INTO THE 5-7K FOOT RANGE BETWEEN 03.14Z AND 03.16Z. WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MESO MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. DUE TO THIS...OPTED TO LEAVE THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTERED OUT AT KLSE AFTER 04.00Z. HOWEVER A BROKEN 5K DECK WILL PERSIST AT KRST. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE LOWER DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED AT KRST. HOWEVER A 10K DECK WILL PERSIST AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 04.09Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 RUNOFF CONTINUES TO FILTER THROUGH THE TRIBUTARIES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE CURRENTLY THE ONLY TRIBUTARY SITE IN FLOOD...BUT THE STAGE IS FALLING AND SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING. ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL RISING. PRESENTLY WABASHA THE ONLY SITE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBURG DAM 10 WILL FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL NO MAJOR RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP GET THE TRIBUTARIES DOWN BEFORE POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...BOYNE HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S....AN UPPER LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN WI. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS SEEN FROM 00Z MPX AND ABR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 11-3.9UM IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAS RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY FOG FORM ACROSS WI AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAIN...CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS. WEST OF THE MS RIVER PLENTY OF MIXING EXISTS TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. UPSTREAM...MORE CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA INTO MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LAKE WINNIPEG UPPER LOW. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING OUT OF THESE...THOUGH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST EVENING...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MODIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z RANGED FROM 8-10C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO 10-13C OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ATTENTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS MOSTLY ON THE LAKE WINNIPEG UPPER LOW...AND A 110 KT UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER JET STREAK TRAVELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE BEING IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION TODAY...THE 03.00Z GFS PRODUCES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN...WHILE THE 03.00Z SPCWRF-NMM PRODUCES SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 03.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL DEPICT LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING. AS WE APPROACH 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THESE FORCING FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA. FOR SOME REASON THE 03.00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL NOT PRODUCING QPF OR MUCH LIFT...DESPITE HAVE A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL. MEANWHILE...THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...NAM AND ECMWF ALL DEPICT A BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER 09-12Z SUNDAY. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS IDEA AND BOOSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS 50 IN THE MITCHELL IOWA COUNTY VICINITY. DESPITE AN INFLUX OF SOME CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN AROUND TO COMBINE WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 7-10C AT 18Z TO BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOOKS BREEZY AS WELL WITH 925MB WINDS BLOWING AT 20-25 KT. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH ALLOW COLDER LOW LEVEL CANADIAN AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO 0-4C BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE F-GEN AND A BREEZE TURNING NORTHERLY WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME...BUT ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 STARTING OFF WITH SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...THE 03.00Z GFS DEPICTS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FORCING...WHEREAS THE 03.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL HAVE A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY AND KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH...60-70 PERCENT...OVER THIS ZONE. THIS BAND OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY A MORNING IMPACT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WEAKENS. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS... COMPARED TO SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN STUCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS THEN PROGGED TO START PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE REGION...FORCED BY A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE RAIN FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IN PAST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 03.00Z GFS AND NAM ARE NOW DRY. THE 03.00Z CANADIAN STILL DEPICTS A LITTLE LIGHT QPF. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE GOING...BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THESE CHANCES COULD BE REMOVED. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE OTHERWISE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION EACH DAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY SPEAKING CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL WI WITH DRY AIR AND A LIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER GETS MORE ACTIVE. MUCH OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD...PUTTING THE AREA INTO A WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS OVERALL ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEST COAST TROUGH PROGRESSION...AS WELL AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WEST COAST TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AT US. 850MB COMPUTED CAPE FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER IA AT 12Z WED...BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN. ELEVATED CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AND DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSITION OF THIS ROUND MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE 03.00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 03.00Z GFS... SUGGESTING IN UPPER MI VERSUS ALONG I-90. SHOULD THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF OCCUR...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK QUITE WARM GIVEN HOW THE WEATHER HAS BEEN. ECMWF PUSHES LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WI FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT TOO FAR OFF EITHER. COLD FRONT CROSSES SOMETIME EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO SEE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IMPACTS THE AREA. 03.00Z ECMWF SAYS THIS CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND MOST OF THE AREA SEES CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY 30-40 PERCENT CONSENSUS CHANCES SEEM WARRANTED. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY SO ONLY HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCES THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT KRST AND SHOULD BY/AROUND 06Z AT KLSE. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT/VRB AT KLSE...AND SOME CONCERN THAT IF THEY STAY THIS WAY...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. MIGHT GO BCFG TO COVER POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. OBS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AND UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED -SHRA TO STAY TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME MIXING THOUGH...WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTINESS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 RUNOFF CONTINUES TO FILTER THROUGH THE TRIBUTARIES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE CURRENTLY THE ONLY TRIBUTARY SITE IN FLOOD...BUT THE STAGE IS FALLING AND SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING. ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL RISING. PRESENTLY WABASHA THE ONLY SITE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR AND GUTTENBURG DAM 10 WILL FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL NO MAJOR RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP GET THE TRIBUTARIES DOWN BEFORE POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
136 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60 INLAND AND MID 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ONGOING FORECASTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN ON TRACK... WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PACKAGE. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED S/SW OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A SYNOPTIC DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW...PINNING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON...AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL LIKELY PUSH TO THE BEACHES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER N/NE SC WEDNESDAY...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. THUS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLIER AND WILL PUSH INLAND. THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON AREA BEACHES TO THE 70S AND SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED WITH HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F WILL STILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70F ON THE BEACHES WILL BE COMMON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND...PUSHING A A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE SLOWED IF DEEP LAYER RIDGING PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EVEN SO...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 18Z MODEL AND SHORT TERM RAP MODEL DATA. EXPECT PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND PARTS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED S/SW OF THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TOWARD THE SW BOTH AFTERNOON. ALSO...04/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE OF SW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
407 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... 249 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING CONSIDERABLE HIGH-BASED CLOUDS WERE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL BOUNDARY THAT HAD STRONG ASCENT OF PARCELS AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NORTHEAST IOWA TO CENTRAL IN LINE. HI-RES LCL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIMEFRAME TO BE NARROW...AND LIKELY COMING TO AN END ARND DAYBREAK. WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE FROM THE UPR 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT ARND DAYBREAK THESE DEW POINTS SHUD MOISTEN SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW 30S. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTN FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF I-80...MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH TEMPS MAY NEAR 70 BY LATE THIS AFTN. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT AND DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN FAR NORTHEAST IL GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERHEAD...AS BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS STRETCHING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO-VALLEY. NEAR SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS TONIGHT...BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. A QUASI-BAROCLINIC FEATURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL IL/IN TONIGHT THRU TUE...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OF THE PROGGED SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. DRY CONDS SHUD CONTINUE THRU THE BULK OF TUE...THEN AS THE SFC VORT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST...THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTH. STRONG ASCENT OF PARCELS IS POISED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A NARROW CHANNEL OF INCREASED INSTABILITY...THUS TSRA/SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS TUE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S SOUTH OF I-80...AND TO THE NORTH IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW A LAKE SHADOW EFFECT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING NORTH WILL CONTROL TUE NGT TEMPS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE NUDGED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA INTO THE MID/UPR 50S...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY IS QUICKER THIS WOULD HOLD TEMPS ARND 60 TO PSBLY LOW 60S. THE WILDCARD IS ALSO THE CONTINUED DRY CONDS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL QUICKLY FALL AFT SUNSET TUE EVE INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH MID-LVL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO SLOWLY BECOME CAPPED AS TEMPS QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 80S. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT PERHAPS NUDGING TEMPS WARMER MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. COULD SEE TEMPS SOUTH OF I-80 POSSIBLY NEARING 90...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE. FURTHER NORTH CLOUDS/PRECIP FROM EARLY IN THE DAY SHUD KEEP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT 80-84 TO BECOME COMMON. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND...SO HAVE BOOSTED DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE URBAN HEAT. THE SFC LOW WILL BE DRIFTING NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WED NGT/EARLY THUR. EXPECT LLVL MOISTURE TO STEADILY ADVECT NORTH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.5" AND DEW POINTS APPROACHING 60. A LITTLE CONCERNED LLVL MOISTURE MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE GIVEN THAT PRIOR TO WED NGT THERE IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SETUP THAT A STEADY CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WED NGT. THUR WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP/CONVECTION. THE BEST FORCING AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THUR...AND COULD FEASIBLY SEE MUCH OF THUR BEING DRY. THEN AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES PRECIP COVERAGE SHUD INCREASE. TEMPS THUR SHUD ONCE AGAIN WARM WELL INTO THE MID/UPR 70S BY LATE MORNING...THEN TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S. THE WARMEST WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF A LASALLE TO CRYSTAL LAKE LINE. CLOUDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MILD NIGHT...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. LATE THUR THE SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN A MOIST CHANNEL WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM THE OZARKS NORTH THRU THE FORECAST AREA LATE THUR NGT. WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LLVL JET OVERHEAD...AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EFFICIENT PRECIP FROM CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING/COVERAGE THUR...MEDIUM. FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THE 500MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH WEAK MID-LVL TROUGHING ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT/SUN AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING EARLY FRI AND PUSHING EAST BY MIDDAY FRI...HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN EVOLVING THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN PRECIP MIGHT COME TO AN END FRI. HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO LOW CHC...THEN SLT CHC FRI NGT...BUT COULD SEE FRI TRENDING DRY. SFC RIDGE ARRIVES SAT AND WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SLIDE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES SAT...ARRIVING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. * GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z... A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PASSED ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF ARR TO C09 AND IKK. THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF MDW/GYY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BUT ANOTHER SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF FEP SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT VCSH MENTION THROUGH 12Z FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS WITH THE SMALL CHANCE THAT ANY STRONGER CELLS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF LIGHTNING. CMS PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY AID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING BOTH LOCATION AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LOW. MOST RECENT HIGH RES/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN EXPECTED COVERAGE. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE HIGH BASED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT VCSH AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR UPDATES. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...VFR...CHANCE TSRA TUES NGT. WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHANCE TSRA...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY...VFR...TSRA LIKELY LATE. FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. RATZER && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THAT TIME...EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TO JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY AND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD A PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS IS POSSIBLE. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 252 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 252 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday 06z surface analysis showed low pressure over southwest KS with a quasi-stationary boundary extending east through central MO and into southern IL. This has kept a brisk ENE low level flow going locally off Canadian high perched over the Great Lakes. This is producing unseasonably low dew points in the 20s. Despite the dry boundary layer, strong elevated theta-e advection aided by at 50-55 kt low level jet over MO has managed to produce isolated showers just north and east of the local area on the cool side of the 850mb front. A few lightning strikes have even been noted just northwest of Henry. Hi-res models keep this isolated activity northeast of the area over the next few hours and it should fade towards sunrise as the LLJ wanes. The front to our south is progged to shift north near I-70 by late morning before drifting back south again during the afternoon. This brings another day of dry ENE flow to much of the CWA and with little change in the low to mid level airmass highs should again be in the upper 60s north to mid 70s central. Some low 80s will be possible south of I-70. The upper level flow begins to amplify on Tuesday with a digging western trough and downstream ridging building over the Great Lakes. This will push highs a few degrees warmer. The surface boundary is expected to surge north Tuesday night while the first in a series of mid-level waves lifts northeast from the Plains. The bulk of this activity should be north of the CWA though did maintain a strip of slight chance pops over the far north overnight. The local area will be firmly in the warm sector on Wednesday and brisk southerly winds will push highs well above normal, into the middle 80s. Dewpoints getting up into the lower 60s will bring higher humidity back to the region. Dry conditions should hold overnight as storms remain focused well to our north and west. LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday Surface low pressure is forecast to lift into southern MN with a trailing cold front shifting into IA/MO Thursday evening. Will continue with chance pops west of I-55 Thursday afternoon as upper forcing ahead of the front could bring some scattered storms this far east. A better chance for more widespread t-storms will be tied to the frontal passage overnight. While low level moisture and wind shear could favor some stronger storms, unfavorable diurnal timing looks to mitigate the overall severe threat. A secondary disturbance lifting out of the Plains trough will likely hang the front up over central or eastern IL Friday afternoon/evening and will keep high chance pops going especially east of I-57. High pressure building in behind the front brings drying conditions from the northwest on Saturday. Lower confidence forecast for later in the weekend as a brief period of zonal flow over the central U.S. could see one or two low amplitude waves bring some precip to the Midwest. Model consensus low chance pops for Saturday night and Sunday are reasonable at this point. Upper level heights suggest seasonable temps during this period. 25 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1126 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 East-northeast winds have been gusting from 20-25 knots the last few hours, and will continue to be gusty for a few more hours. NAM model suggests some borderline LLWS conditions for a couple hours around 08-09Z, although the RAP is not quite as high, so will leave mention out of the upcoming TAFs. Frontal boundary across the southern third of Illinois may drift northward a bit on Monday before retreating, diminishing winds for a time late morning and into the afternoon, especially from KSPI-KCMI, before picking up again a bit in the evening. Cloud cover expected to remain above 12KFT through the period. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1229 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... 826 PM CDT THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE MAIN BELT OF PERTURBED MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...ATOP A LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE 00 UTC RAOBS REALLY SHOWS THE STOUT NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ORIENTED LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR EXAMPLE...KGRB REPORTED +1 CELSIUS AT 850 MB...WITH KDVN COMING IN AT +10 CELSIUS AND KSGF COMING IN WITH A SUMMER-LIKE +21 CELSIUS. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ULTIMATELY HELP SET UP SOME GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH AREA RAOBS INDICATE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...IT APPEARS THAT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FROTOGENISIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP MOISTEN THESE LAYERS...WITH HIGHER THETA E AIR LIKELY TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BENEATH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS COULD POSS A SMALL THREAT OF HAIL GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY STOUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...I HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AND WILL ALSO ADD THE MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. KJB //PREV DISCUSSION... 311 PM CDT SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CWA WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH MONDAY LOOKING WARMER...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKE. A WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MID 80S OR HIGHER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. WE ALSO GET INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW IS ALOFT AS A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CONUS. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN IL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS OVERHEAD NOW ARE WEAKENING QUICKLY WITH VERY FEW OBS INDICATING RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE. SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AS WAA SETS UP ALOFT. WITH CONSISTENT GUIDANCE...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING A HUGE IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP IN TO THE LOWER 40S BUT ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 30S AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT COOLING. WINDS REMAIN OFF OF THE LAKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE BOTH DAYS. OUTLYING AREAS WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS BECOME A BIT GUSTY TUESDAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT TWO DRY NICE DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW US FORMS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THE WAVE PASSES TO W OR NW THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECOND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST LOW OVER THE PLAINS DISSIPATES WHILE A SECOND SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN PASSES OVER WI FRIDAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AS WELL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF I-80...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE NOW FEATURES SOME SIGNIFICANT CAPPING SO WHILE A STORM OR TWO MAY GO SEVERE IF IT CAN REACH THE 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE THE CAP...FOCUSING ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL PROBABLY SEE STORMS MOVE NORTH INTO WI WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER PWATS WILL BE AN INCH PLUS SO COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STORMS. WE WILL ENJOY THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY...AND RAISED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AND CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT WARMING...BUT HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S RIGHT NOW. IF WE GET FULL SUNSHINE COULD SEE HIGHS EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH WI THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS REMAIN AT 1-1.25 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE BIT MORE MEAGER AT AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT JUST IN CASE. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER 70S AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. * GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY AID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING BOTH LOCATION AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LOW. MOST RECENT HIGH RES/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN EXPECTED COVERAGE. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE HIGH BASED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT VCSH AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR UPDATES. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...VFR...CHANCE TSRA TUES NGT. WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHANCE TSRA...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY...VFR...TSRA LIKELY LATE. FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. RATZER && .MARINE... 247 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISHING. THE HIGH WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FRESHEN UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1126 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 817 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 Concern for tonight will be with any rain chances across our northern CWA. Shortwave currently moving through central Nebraska continues to move east, and should be moving into western Illinois just before sunrise. Most of the models are reflecting some light rain accumulations north of I-74 late tonight, as lift increases ahead of the wave. However, there is an awful lot of dry air below 500 mb, per our evening sounding, that will have to be overcome. Dew points have dropped into the 20s from Bloomington eastward and with a stiff east wind, no moisture will be advecting in from that direction. Already seeing reports of virga over our northern CWA and this will probably be common for several more hours. The showers last night did manage to eke out some light but measurable amounts in a similar parched atmosphere, so will not rule out the possibility here, but am not expecting more than a hundredth at best. Have included some 30% PoP`s after midnight north of I-74. Increasing lapse rates suggest a couple rumbles of thunder could be possible as well, but will hold off on this for now. Otherwise, little change was needed to the other parts of the forecast. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1126 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 East-northeast winds have been gusting from 20-25 knots the last few hours, and will continue to be gusty for a few more hours. NAM model suggests some borderline LLWS conditions for a couple hours around 08-09Z, although the RAP is not quite as high, so will leave mention out of the upcoming TAFs. Frontal boundary across the southern third of Illinois may drift northward a bit on Monday before retreating, diminishing winds for a time late morning and into the afternoon, especially from KSPI-KCMI, before picking up again a bit in the evening. Cloud cover expected to remain above 12KFT through the period. Geelhart && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 Despite some minor model differences resolving the short term shortwaves in the quasi-zonal flow, the overall synoptic patterns are in agreement until the day 5-7 time frame. There will not be a major shift in the sensible weather between the short term solutions, with any light rain over the next few days being short-lived and barely measurable. Clouds and temps will show larger differences depending on the track of the waves. Therefore, only made minor adjustments to the ongoing precip forecast. A significant warmup still looks on track for Wed/Thur, as a broad ridge expands into the area. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday A departing shortwave from today will keep clouds and sprinkles across the north into the evening. The next shortwave will arrive after midnight, triggering additional slight chances of showers north of I-74 through Monday morning. Very little rain accumulation is expected from during that system. The stationary front just south of our forecast area tonight will lift north as a warm front on Monday, allowing areas south of I-70 to see some of the warm sector air mass a couple days early. On Tuesday, the front may slip back south slightly, but the ridging aloft and increasing heights will allow high temps to still climb a few degrees warmer than Monday. Tues should be a dry day with the next disturbance possibly Tuesday night across northern IL. We could see a few light showers from Galesburg to Lacon. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday A much stronger push of warm air will come on Wednesday as the mid level warm front re-develops across northern IL/southern WI, allowing surface temps to climb around 10-12 deg above normal, in the 80-84 range. The MEX extended GFS guidance even has 88 for SPI on Wed. We trended warmer, but we tempered that big of a swing with this update due to some signals from the Canadian and ECMWF of slightly cooler 850mb temps than the GFS/NAM. We will remain firmly entrenched in the warm sector on Thursday but increasing clouds and storm chances may keep highs a few deg cooler than Wed depending on how much morning sunshine/warming occurs. The highest chances of storms this week looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning, with likely PoPs across the board in our forecast area. Due to increasing shear parameters and instability, we could see a few rotating storms with damaging winds and hail possible. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out either, but better chances of severe weather should remain west in Missouri and Iowa. Based on SPC Day 5 outlook, our severe potential will be mainly from Knox County to Schuyler County. Our lower severe chances will be aided by poor diurnal timing, as storms will be later Thursday night without the support of surface based instability. Elevated CAPE and shear will still be sufficient for a few vigorous updrafts advancing into western IL however. The cold front should push through IL on Friday, with dry air already across most of our counties by afternoon. Noticeably cooler air will return for Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is indicating a secondary wave of low pressure moving up the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, which could keep shower/storm chances in our southeast counties. The GFS does not resolve that feature, and keeps rain chances south of IL. For Sunday, the GFS introduces a wave of low pressure that the ECMWF does not show, so AllBlend PoPs were skewed upwards each day next weekend by alternating days of storm systems. Will keep any precip in the low chance or slight chance category due to the model differences. Some return of warmer air is forecast for Sunday in both the GFS and ECMWF, so that trend was allowed in the forecast. Shimon && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS. TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON AVERAGE. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT ALL FOUR TAF STIES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...IN OUR DEEPEST RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. STRAY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF MVFR COULD PASS NEAR KSJS 16Z TO 22Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CDFNT CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS SSW THROUGH INTERIOR E AND SE VA...AND WILL CONT TO SETTLE S THROUGH THE FCST NEXT FEW HRS. 00Z/05 RUC PUSHES THE FNT S INTO SRN NC BY 12Z/05. BECOMING COOLER POST CDFNT OVRNGT...W/ LO TEMPS RANGING FM M/U40S N...TO THE L/M50S S. VRB CLDS/PCLDY ACRS THE FA THE REST OF THE NGT...W/ POPS AOB 14%. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NW ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER NC. LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST MON AFTN/MON NIGHT. AFTER SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...EXPECT SKIES TO CLOUD OVER FROM W TO E BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN THE AFTN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST W/NW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. BY LATE MON AFTN AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING IS WHEN MID LEVEL (H7 TO H5) LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7-7.5 C IN SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO NEGATIVE IN THESE AREAS DESPITE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER (AND +LI VALUES). THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS (MAINLY ELEVATED) ALONG/SOUTH OF I-64. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PUSH A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST ON TUE...AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT POPS FOR TUE EXCEPT ACRS THE SW WHERE A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED. LOW LEVEL LIGHT/E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY COOL AGAIN...65-70F NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 70S WELL INLAND. THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHWR AND ISOLD TSTSM CHANCES WED (ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE W OF THE AKQ CWA). SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THRU CNTRL AND ERN CNTIES WED NGT THRU THU...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. UPR RDG WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES IN FM THE W. THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE SAT THRU SUN. WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS FM NW TO SE FRI NGT THRU SAT...THEN MAINLY HAVE CHC POPS EVERYWHERE SAT NGT THRU SUN...ALNG WITH SLGT CHC/CHC OF THUNDER. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S THU MORNG...UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FRI MORNG...LWR TO MID 60S SAT MORNG...AND 60 TO 65 SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 70S TO THE MID 80S THU...UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI...MID 70S TO MID 80S SAT...AND FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS NOW S OF THE REGION. THE WIND SHIFTED TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LARGELY BACK TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SCT MID CLOUDS ~10K FT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NC...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO ~5K FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (60%) WILL BE OVER A CORRIDOR THAT INCLUDES RIC/PHF/ORF...WITH ECG/SBY IN A PERIPHERAL ZONE OF 40-50%. AN ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF THE VA/NC BORDER. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. && .MARINE... CDFNT TO MOVE THROUGH FAR SRN WTRS NEXT COUPLE HRS...ASSOCIATED W/ AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NNE AND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. XPCG NNE WNDS ACRS THE WTRS THE REST OF THE NGT. KEEPING SCAS IN PLACE (THE ENTIRE CHES BAY AND THE JAMES RIVER FM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON RDS BRIDGE...AS WELL AS THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS). ADDITIONALLY...SEAS SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH 4-5 FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER NC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LO PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MON NGT INTO TUE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NNE ACRS THE WTRS AS A WARM FRONT WED INTO THU. HI PRES EVENTUALLY SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR LATE THU THRU FRI. && .HYDROLOGY... A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE LATEST FLSAKQ PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630- 631-638-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
323 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 106 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 Not much change from the prev forecast. Main focus will continue to be the location of the quasi-stationary fnt. This fnt is expected to lift nwd this morning, before being pushed back swd this afternoon thru tonight as the sfc ridge builds back into the region from the Great Lakes region. With a lack of moisture across the region, have kept the period dry. Mdls continue to over forecast dewpoint with no moisture return with a sfc ridge cutting off flow from the Gulf. Tilly .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 Once again, not many changes to the prev forecast. Continued trending cooler with dewpoints as mentioned above. Gulf shud finally open up again by Thurs allowing moisture return once again. That said, expect dewpoints to pool along and just S of the sfc fnt. However, there is not enuf pooling expected to generate TSRA. The location of this fnt will determine temps thru Tues with upper 80s and lower 90s on the S side of the fnt, and 70s to 80 on the N side. By Wed morning, the fnt shud be well N of the region. Chance for TSRA increases on Thurs as cyclogenesis ramps up and the upper trof ejects into the Plains. Believe this system will behave very similar to the system last week where a leading s/w ejects into the region ahead of the main trof. This s/w is progd to push thru the CWA late Thurs into Thurs night. Another round of TSRA is expected across sern portions of the CWA on Fri as the main trof pushes thru. Either of these periods of TSRA have the potential of producing severe wx. However, questions regarding moisture return will determine severe wx potential and areas affected. For Sat and beyond, pattern becomes more typical of May with a quasi-stationary sfc boundary in the general area with waves of trofs moving thru the region. With questions regarding timing, have kept POPs in the lower chance range for now. As the large sfc ridge builds into the region, temps shud be cooler. Tilly && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture. Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for KCOU and KUIN. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the south side of the front). Kanofsky && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 90 60 86 64 / 10 5 5 5 Quincy 76 49 77 62 / 5 5 10 10 Columbia 88 57 87 64 / 10 5 5 5 Jefferson City 90 58 87 64 / 5 5 5 5 Salem 85 57 83 61 / 10 5 5 5 Farmington 89 57 86 61 / 5 5 5 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
130 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 106 AM CDT Mon May 5 2014 Not much change from the prev forecast. Main focus will continue to be the location of the quasi-stationary fnt. This fnt is expected to lift nwd this morning, before being pushed back swd this afternoon thru tonight as the sfc ridge builds back into the region from the Great Lakes region. With a lack of moisture across the region, have kept the period dry. Mdls continue to over forecast dewpoint with no moisture return with a sfc ridge cutting off flow from the Gulf. Tilly .LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 The main issue for at least the next several days will be the location of the east-west quasi-stationary front and resultant impact on temperatures. Guidance is good agreement moving the boundary northward on Monday morning to around a Moberly-Matoon line by early afternoon. While there will be a few more clouds around on Monday, the character of the air mass and low level flow regime is not expected to change. Thus it appears highs in the 80s to lower 90s will be the norm within the warm sector, and in the 70s to the north of the front. The front then sags south again on Monday night as surface high pressure builds southeastward from the Great Lakes region. This southward position doesn`t appear to last long however as the front is forecast to retreat northward again on Tuesday, draped across northern MO into central IL by late afternoon and exiting the CWA by late evening. This northward retreat is in response to falling pressures across the Plains and the movement of an initial low pressure wave into eastern Nebraska. The entire region will be well within the warm sector on Wednesday with highs area-wide in the 80s. The models have been overforecasting the surface dew points recently and this trend will persist for the next several days as high pressure in the northern Gulf is inhibiting southerly return flow. The combination of warm temps aloft and limited low level moisture will result in an air mass capped to surface-based convection through Wednesday. I think Wednesday night will remain quiet and mild with a general increase in clouds. Things begin to change on Thursday with shower and thunderstorm chances ramping up, especially Thursday night into Friday. We should see a more robust return of low level moisture as the Gulf opens up, and the western U.S. upper trof ejects northeastward across the Rockies and Plains into the upper MS valley sending a cold front into the area Thursday night. This front will temporarily stall across portions of southern MO and southern IL late Friday into Friday night, before lifting back northward on Saturday. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014 VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture. Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for KCOU and KUIN. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the south side of the front). Kanofsky && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 60 86 64 87 / 5 5 5 10 Quincy 49 77 62 85 / 5 10 10 10 Columbia 57 87 64 87 / 5 5 5 10 Jefferson City 58 87 64 88 / 5 5 5 10 Salem 57 83 61 84 / 5 5 5 10 Farmington 57 86 61 85 / 5 5 5 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUSTED BIG TIME AS THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS ERRED BY AS MUCH AS 10F TOO WARM. THIS MAY BE A PROBLEM WITH TOO MUCH VERTICAL MIXING IN THE MODELS. THE EASTERLIES COMING OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH APPEAR TO BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND IT SNOWED IN MINOT. FOR TODAY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE ECM AND A 50 PERCENT BLEND OF THE GEMREG AND MOS WHICH REPRESENT THE COOLER MODEL SOLNS. THERE ARE 13 MODELS TO CHOOSE FROM AND AT NORTH PLATTE THE RUC FORECASTS A HIGH OF 81F TODAY AND THE ECM 70F. SO WE WILL TRY UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH MID 70S IN NORTH PLATTE. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SENDING COOL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP STRONG S-SE RETURN FLOW THROUGH WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. THE MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ALL SOLNS KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH PRODUCES DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FACT THAT NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANYWHERE NEAR SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN BY THE GFS...THE FCST IS DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST IN THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEK OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE 500MB LOW CENTERS ARE VERY CLOSE IN PLACEMENT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA...GOING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE...MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST INFLUENCES FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THE QUESTION AT HAND FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IF CONVECTION WILL FIRE...AND IF IT DOES...WHAT AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACTIVITY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY PUSHING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT. BUT...MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING BY SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON...CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY ABUNDANT DRY AIR WHICH DOESN/T AID IN GROWING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CHANCES IN MAINLY FOR THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO COLORADO. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY...AND NOTHING LOOKING TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH...EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRYLINE IS LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOOKING TO PULL A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT FOR A WHILE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME...THAT INFLUENCE IS LOOKING TO BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IMPACTING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...COLDER AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS DIFFERENCES WILL CAUSE FRONTGENETICAL FORCING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT A GOOD DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT DECENT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP...WITH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL WEST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING...WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...LIMITED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING ACCUMULATING...OR THE SNOW FALLING IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES FROM MOST MODELS ARE JUST 3 TO 4 DEGREES TOO WARM...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO FALL AND PERHAPS ACCUMULATE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE POOLS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...ON THURSDAY LOOKING FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES...COULD BRING DOWN 40KT WINDS FROM 850MB. THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BEYOND THAT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN FROM THE LONGER TERM MODELS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A WEAK FOG SIGNAL IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH MOISTURE BELOW THE 875MB LEVEL INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. LIGHT EAST WIND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WOULD SUPPORT SOME BR/FG TONIGHT...SO PATCHY FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE EVENING SOUNDING AT LBF HAS A FOG SIGNAL WITH UNIFORM MOISTURE INDICATED IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET BUT THE TEMPERATURE WOULD NEED TO BE BELOW 40F. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE THAT LOW. SINCE HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED UPWIND OF LBF...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL PRETTY HIGH...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF BUT WILL INCLUDE 3SM WITH BCFG IN THE FORECAST. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...BROOKS AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
143 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA TODAY, BRINGING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... A TOUCH MILDER /0-2 DEG/ ON THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE FROM 730 PM UPDATE. MOST OF STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY. 730 PM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS KEEPING UP WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FROM DIURNAL HEATING ARE FALLING APART...EXCEPT FOR FOCUS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ALSO...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS QUICK TO EXIT...925-850MB RH FIELDS IN NAM AND RUC MODELS SUGGEST STRATOCUMULUS WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT MONDAY MORNING. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AT 330 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ONIDA COUNTY. FOR TONIGHT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT IN THE NRN CWA ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY INTO THE LATE EVENING PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ANY FROST FORMATION IS UNLIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVER JAMES BAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE/TUE NIGHT THEN TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WEAKER WINDS AND PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED FROST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED HERE. MAX TEMPS MON/TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT WARMER. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THU NGT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH 70S. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT PROBABLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE EAST. DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND ON WHERE THE NEXT STORM TRACKS NE. KEPT CHC POPS BOTH DAYS BUT SATURDAY MAY END UP DRY BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SUNDAY LOW FROM THE SW. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... STRATOCU HAS SPREAD INTO MOST NY TERMINALS WITH BKN VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT RME, ITH AND BGM CLOSER TO DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SYR AND ELM WILL REMAIN VFR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AVP TO SNEAK IN WITH A 3KFT CIG FROM NOW THROUGH 10Z THIS MORNING. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS THEY ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AND WILL NOT CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS. DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM ALOFT AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING WITH STRATOCU RAPIDLY MIXING OUT. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR BRIEFLY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIRRUS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY WITH ALL TERMINALS AT VFR. WINDS FROM THE WNW WILL GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... LATE MON NIGHT TO WED...MAINLY VFR. WED NIGHT TO FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
103 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MEANDER ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THERE COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE AREA BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HATTERAS...NEW BERN AND GREENVILLE NC...AND IS ON-TRACK TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN NC BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE 00Z NAM IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 03Z RUC AND 02Z HRRR WITH THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 KNOTS WINDS AT 1500 FEET IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING...BUT OTHERWISE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR) ARE HELPING DEEPEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS NEAR-TERM EARLY MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER LOOKS QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS NE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW MID 50S POSSIBLE NW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER WITH BETTER NOTED SFC CONVERGENCE AND SOME WAA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF WARM WEATHER. THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION PAIRED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANGES MAY BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME THE CAPPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND THUS IS EFFECTS LESSENED. RAIN CHANCES MAY THEN RETURN ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KLBT/KILM AROUND 09Z AND KCRE/KFLO/KMYR AROUND 12Z. W-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS (STRONGER ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A HEFTY LOW-LEVEL JET) WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z. THE FRONT WILL STALL...THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TIMING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRB WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS OVERHEAD...BUT BY 18Z EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KTS IN A COMBINED SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS NOSING ITS WAY DOWN THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF HATTERAS BUT SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTER NORTH CAROLINA WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK AS THIS FRONT SLIPS INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY BEFORE STALLING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...FED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET WITH 30-35 KNOT WIND SPEEDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 FEET ALONG THE SC COAST TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FETCH IS LONGEST. FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-MORNING NEAR-TERM UPDATE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AMZ250 EARLY MONDAY...MOST OF MONDAY AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP FROM THE SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT AT SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A 4-6 SEC WIND WAVE...FROM THE SW MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A E/NE WIND CHOP DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A CONFUSED SPECTRUM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES WILL BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW TENDS TO DIMINISH THE RANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS OFTEN OBSERVED NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE. HOWEVER OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL ANYWAY AND SO THIS EFFECT WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL. VEERING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT MAKES ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. ON THURSDAY SPEED MAY BE CAPPED AT 10KT YIELDING JUST 2 FT WAVES. BOTH WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAN NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DEPICT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS MONTANA WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CURRENT BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S EXTENDING TO NEAR SLOPE AND BOWMAN COUNTIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NO EVIDENCE THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST. THE GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND MOVES IT TO NEAR DICKINSON BY 12Z MONDAY. THE HRRR AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF POPS AS THIS SHORTWAVE SCOOTS EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. PLENTY OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PER FOG/STRATUS LOOP WHICH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RAIN AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. BACK EDGE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY AS OF 0230 UTC. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AROUND 06-07 UTC...BUT DID KEEP SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE LATEST PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LATEST 00 UTC HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP NORTH OF BILLINGS MT. HRRR BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND 07 UTC...AND THEN DISSIPATES BY AROUND 11 UTC BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE RAP DID NOT INITIALIZE AS WELL BUT DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THAT DRY UP BEFORE REACHING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS WE HEAD PAST MIDNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION HERE WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 QUICK UPDATE MAINLY FOR POPS AS PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BACK EDGE OF MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FROM AROUND SHERWOOD SOUTHWEST TO KENMARE AND STANLEY. WEST OF THIS LINE...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS OVER FOR THE EVENING. BEST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS OVER BOTTINEAU... ROLETTE...MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTIES...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER RENVILLE AND WARD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELIMINATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING AS TRAILING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS DRY AND ANY PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND. ACTUALLY A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON POPS BASED ON HRRR/RAP OUTPUT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW. WEATHER CAMERAS FROM RAY...PORTAL AND CARPIO INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOK WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY AREAS...PREVIOUS INSOLATION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. WITH THE BACK EDGE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE THE EXTENT TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 06 UTC. FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW. BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 CIGS BETWEEN 3500FT AND 4500FT AGL WILL SLOWLY RISE AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 12Z MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KMOT WHERE IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 10Z MONDAY...BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR. THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SCT/BKN VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SURGE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AERODROMES OF KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO BEGIN DETERIORATING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RAIN HAS DEVELOPED DOWN INTO FARGO...SO ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. INCLUDED A BIT MORE SNOW MIXING IN AS WEB CAMS AND OBS HAVE SHOWN SOME FLAKES IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THINK THAT THE BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RAIN HAS BEEN FILLING IN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...FINALLY SATURATING DOWN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS MODELS SHOW THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HARVEY HAS HAD SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASS JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA...SO INCLUDED SOME RAIN AND SNOW MENTION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S. DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 RADAR RETURNS HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME SATURATING AND NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LIKELY POPS SLOWLY RAMPING UP TO DEFINITE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM KMBX (MINOT...ND) IS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS SOURIS RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER GROUND TRUTH AS FAR AS PRECIP REPORTS IS FURTHER WEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A WILLISTON TO ESTEVAN (SASK) LINE. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH A RUC/NAM SOLUTION...PRIMARILY USING RUC AS GUIDANCE THROUGH 09Z THEN TRENDING TOWARD NAM FOR MONDAY. TONIGHT...A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO W CNTRL MN TONIGHT. WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H700 FG FORCING WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AS THE VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CIGS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 4K FT IN PORTIONS OF NW ND...GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE SFC. OVERALL...HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR A BIT BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND EXPECTING ONLY TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OVER DVL BASIN. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THIS REGION WITH LIKELIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AS ACTIVITY GETS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. BY 12Z...NAM SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA AND DRYING THINGS UP SHORTLY AFT 12Z. AGAIN...HAVE USED RUC AS GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY POPS THROUGH 09Z WITH NAM FOR THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...THEN DRY ON MONDAY. ONE CAVEAT...RUC DOES HOLD ON TO SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS AREA (MORE IN LINE WITH NAM). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND DID MENTION SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF THERE IS A CHANGE OVER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMP TO CLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SW FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING AND EJECTING OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN DAKOTAS TUE MORNING. SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AND HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. 12Z GFS SHOWING INCREASING H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND ONE INCH BY 18Z. GFS ALSO SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORMING MID DAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELIES IN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...WITH NAM FOCUSING ON DVL BASIN...WHICH IS WHERE I WILL LIMIT LIKELIES FOR TUE AFTN. CURRENT QPF VALUES APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS. WED...INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO EAST DURING DAY WED...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY UP...HOWEVER MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRYING OUT THE DVL LAKE BASIN...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES RATHER BULLISH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND EVEN THE NAM SHOWS SOME POPS OVER THE AREA. INHERITED CHANCE POPS THEREFORE SEEMS REASONABLE...SUPPORTED BY CONSALL..AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO TRY AND TIME CLEARING FOR WED AFTN. WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY ALL THE MODELS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS COVER AND ACTUAL TIMING OF SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KGFK AND KTVF...AND KDVL HAS GONE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 500 FT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS IN THOSE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD FROM 06 TO 12Z WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING RAIN...SPREADING INTO KBJI LATER TONIGHT. KFAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY TOOK A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR AND WENT BACK UP. THINK THAT LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR A BIT LONGER IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALL VFR BY MID MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BELOW 12 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014 TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER AVIATION...JR HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
553 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM APPRECIABLY ALL AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL...WILL TRANSLATE LIKELY POPS TO THE NRN/NERN CWFA THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE SW CWFA. HIGHER POPS ARE BEING EMPLOYED N AND NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S/WV IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST SO HAVE LOWERED THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A MINIMUM IN PCPN COVERAGE. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWFA BY THIS AFTN. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE DIFFICULT. HAVE USED A SREF BLEND AS A STARTING POINT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR N AND NE TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM EARLY ON NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH BUT REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. AMPLE SUNSHINE ACRS THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONCUR THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORMS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AS WEAK FORCING IS DEPICTED IN THIS AREA. THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BECOME WARM SECTORED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF THE CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL RESIDE ON FRI/SAT/SUN ATTENDANT TO APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...PUSHING A SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME RANGE IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIMINISHES SAT/SUN AS DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE DISTRIBUTION/TIMING IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE EJECTS AND DEEPENS WITH A LITTLE MORE FERVOR ON THURS AFTN/FRIDAY...BEING ENVELOPED INTO LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW OVER SCNTL CANADA ON FRI AS IT PASSES WELL TO OUR NW INTO MN AND WRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. WITH PARENT DYNAMICS ALREADY ABSORBED INTO STATIONARY SCNTL CANADA CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL FRONTOLYTIC PROCESSES WILL BE ONGOING AND HAVE DOUBTS HOW STRONG /OR FAR SOUTH/ THIS FRONT WILL GET THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN UPSTREAM ENERGY COMING BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. MOST 04.12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO TRICKLE FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER AREA BEFORE STALLING...AND PERHAPS AWAITING SRN STREAM WAVE TO BE INDUCED AND THEN RIDE ALONG IT. EITHER WAY...ALL 04.12Z AND 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUPPORT ENSEMBLE MEAN/PROBABILISTICS THAT SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN MODEST INSTBY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT/AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. NOT REALLY TOO CONCERNED ABOUT A MORE APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT - LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW IS RATHER MARGINAL AS THE FRONT LOSES STEAM...AND AND LACK OF FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS AND SLOWING FRONT ISN/T TYPICALLY THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR. ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IF SRN STREAM WAVE INDEED RIPPLES THE BOUNDARY SAT/SAT NIGHT /AS PER 04.00Z ECMWF/. A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE...WHICH MAKES SUNDAY FORECAST VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS ARE TRANQUIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN STORM LOCATION AND TIMING IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH...SO CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN KEPT RATHER GENERIC IN THE TAFS. WHILE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR...HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE DAY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES)...BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE NWS WILMINGTON OHIO FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WINDS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
442 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY... WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONITNUE TO FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BRREZE AND REINFORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY... NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC- LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 05Z/1AM AND MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE IN THE KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WITH 290K ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION DEFICITS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29 RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO 200 MB...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN SOUTH OF THIS STATE HIGHWAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY...290K ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...KEPT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH 05.15Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/ WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 05.18Z. WHILE THE 290K ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE RUNNING 20 MB OR LESS...THE ONLY MESO MODEL WHICH GENERATES ANY PRECIPITATION IS THE NMM. SINCE THIS MODEL TENDS TO OVER DO ITS PRECIPITATION KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING TO MAKE THAT THE DRY FORECAST TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 ON TUESDAY EVENING...THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA. CORFIDI VECTORS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ELEVATED. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE BRINGING MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...THE 1-6 KN SHEAR IS IN THE EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SKINNY CAPE...SO THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER YOU WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE LARGE HAIL OR NOT. HOWEVER WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13K FEET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THIS HAS A HUGE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY. THE UKMET HAS THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ARE IN THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE GEM HAS THE WARM FRONT MOVING UP INTO THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 90. IT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NEAR 70 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM HAS THE WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TRACK. THE U.S. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE NON U.S. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY. SINCE THE NON U.S. MODELS SEEM TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...OPTED TO TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THEM. ON THURSDAY...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS ARRIVES...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD ENOUGH CAPES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ONCE THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA MUCH OF THIS CAPES IS USED TO GENERATE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...THE SURFACE BASED...ML CAPES...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES REMAIN LESS THAN 250 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK ACROSS MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE 05.00Z NAM AND HRRR KEEPING ANY OF THE LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT THE HRRR KEEPS PUSHING THE AREA WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM ALSO NOW SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD JUST LEAVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILINGS OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING THIS WEEK. CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY COULD HELP KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED...SLOWING THE RATE OF FALL AFTER CREST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 A WEAK PERTURBATION ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING. THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE...AND WITH ENOUGH SATURATION PER RH FIELDS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP. NAM/GFS/EC AND THE MESO MODELS ALL FAVOR A SWATH RUNNING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI...EXITING SOUTHEAST MON AFTERNOON. THE AIR IS RATHER DRY IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...BUT WITH BASES 5-6 KFT...RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT HANGING OUT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AND NORTH OF FRONT WOULD PUSH INTO SLOPING/ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN IA/ILL. ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO ADD IN SMALL CHANCES FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ALL IN ALL...DON/T EXPECT MUCH QPF OUT OF WHATEVER RAIN FALLS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 LATE TUE THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGS A PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. TUE NIGHT...A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT WILL LAY UP ACROSS CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN ILL...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE INTO AND NORTH OF IT. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE PROGGED TO SPIN OUT OF THE TROUGH STILL WELL WEST AT THIS TIME...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY POOLS AROUND THE SFC FRONT. EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE FORCING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAVING A LARGE ROLE. MODELS SHIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON THU AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD BE A WARM DAY...PERHAPS WARMEST DAY OF THE YOUNG SPRING SEASON...WITH EC 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S. THAT SAID...THE WARM TEMPS COULD BE TEMPERED BY PCPN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A STRONG CAP THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL WARMING THU...INHIBITING ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPIN ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY A LOFT FOR THE SHORTWAVES TO TAP INTO...WHICH COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION ABOVE THE CAP. IF STORMS GET GOING...AND COULD GET SFC BASED...0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE STAY ABOVE THE CAP...1-6 KM SHEAR SITS AROUND 30 KTS. OKAY...BUT NOT GREAT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH. A LOT OF VARIABLES TO WATCH...BUT THU DOES POSE A SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST...ALONG AND POST THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS IA AND MN...JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK ACROSS MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE 05.00Z NAM AND HRRR KEEPING ANY OF THE LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT THE HRRR KEEPS PUSHING THE AREA WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM ALSO NOW SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD JUST LEAVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILINGS OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING THIS WEEK. CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TUE NIGHT-FRI PERIOD COULD HELP KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED...SLOWING THE RATE OF FALL AFTER CREST. MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR DROPPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI THU/THU NIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
712 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN UNSETTLED WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 730 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. NOTING THE HRRR...HAVE INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS OUTCOMES COMPLETELY DRY WHEREAS THE HRRR IS THE LONE-OUTLIER. THUS HAVE GONE WITH A ROUGHLY 20-PERCENT CHANCE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW /-2 STD FROM CLIMO/ OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD TODAY. HOWEVER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT /-26C AT H5/. THIS YIELDS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ABUNDANT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP. BUFKIT RH PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES...AROUND 5-6KFT. THUS ONLY EXPECTING A SPOT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PERHAPS JUST SOME VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. GREATEST RISK FOR A SHOWER /ALBEIT VERY LOW/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA WHERE LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK AND WARM AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MA AND RI WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS PGRAD RELAXES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT... DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODES WITH SUNSET. WINDS DIMINISH AS WELL YIELDING A COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE U30S TO M40S. TUESDAY... MORE OF THE SAME WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR ONE MORE DAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OVER EASTERN MA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN. WEAKENING PGRAD SUGGEST LIGHT WINDS WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK - UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND */ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE... A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED THROUGH FRIDAY WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE WARM-FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SW AGAINST COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO THE NE. ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO WARM-AIR-ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. BUT CONTINUED SPREAD WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST. PER THE GEFS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT SENSIBLE-WEATHER DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED THOUGH DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION-AMOUNTS AND SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. */ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A DRY FORECAST. SOME CONCERN OVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DUE TO THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT. THOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE... WINDS WILL BE BELOW RED-FLAG WARNING CRITERIA /25 MPH/ AND WE ARE IN THE PRE-GREEN-UP STAGES. NO NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE-LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING AROUND +2C. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM-FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR OTHERWISE. LIGHT NW-FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WARM-FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE NE-CONUS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF BROAD-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FORCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG THE WARM-FRONT WILL YIELD LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THE BETTER OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND AS COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO THE N/E INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING E OF THE DEEP- TROUGHING BUILDING OUT OF THE W-CONUS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CONVEYED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER AS TO THE STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF POTENTIAL COLD-AIR-DAMMING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OVER-RUNNING. DO NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... CONTINUED VARIANCE AMONG MODEL-FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING N- AND S-STREAM DISTURBANCES ALONG A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE GEFS EXHIBITS SIGNALS OF A DECENT PWAT AXIS THE MEAN VALUES OF WHICH EXCEED 1-INCH COLLOCATED WITH ANOMALOUS S/SW MOISTURE TRANSPORT +2 SD /SLIGHLY GREATER IN AREAL EXTENT THAN YESTERDAYS 04.0Z GEFS/. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO EXACT SPECIFICS. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS. THOUGH GEFS MEAN H85 TEMPS +10-12C SUGGEST WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS YIELD COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS. SO THERE IS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN THE PLAUSIBILITY OF A WARM-SECTOR SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY. SHALL PREVAIL WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE-NORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK... 8-DAY CONSENSUS FORECAST PER THE CANADIAN STILL SUGGESTS A STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...DISTURBED WEATHER MAY MAKE A RETURN. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING. MIDDAY-AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT-BKN 4-5 KFT CIGS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE ACROSS SE MA. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LESSER WNW WINDS AND GREATER POSSIBILITY OF SEA-BREEZES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-FLOW DIMINISHING TURNING SW. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORES WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE WITH LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. -SHRA ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY... INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE NE. WINDS SHIFTING S AND INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD-FRONT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO EASE TOWARD MIDDAY WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA. OTHER THAN A BRIEF SPOT AFTERNOON SHOWER NEAR SHORE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY THRU TUE. WNW WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUE. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW-WINDS DIMINISHING TURNING W. SEA-BREEZE ALONG THE SHORES WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. WAVES BELOW 5 FEET. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY OVER THE SW INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING NE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
924 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014 .UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF PACIFIC COAST. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST. RADAR SHOWING BAND OF WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION. WITH STRONG UPSTREAM MOISTURE EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWING CONVECTION BUBBLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY. STRONGEST GRADIENT IN LOWER SNAKE PLAIN OCCURS THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WEAKENING OF WINDS LATER TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON LAKE HEADLINE FOR THIS MORNING. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014/ SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING PROJECTED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER NEVADA BY TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING WAVE SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM12 MODEL FAVORS A COUPLE OF SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...ONE IN NEVADA AND ANOTHER IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. NEGATIVE SURFACE LIS AND STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE LOST RIVER AND PAHSIMEROI AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ON AMERICAN FALLS TO SW AT 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RESERVOIR. A 700 MB LOW DEVELOPING IN NE NEVADA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DRIFTS EASTWARD TO ABOUT WHERE INTERSTATE 84 CROSSES THE IDAHO AND UTAH STATE LINE. THE FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD FOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER CASSIA COUNTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON COOL SIDE OF TROUGH ALSO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO ABOUT 6200-6500 FEET ELEVATION. MAGIC MOUNTAIN COULD GET 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FAVOR VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL SE IDAHO...WHILE THE NAM IS FASTER TO MOVE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA AND ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION CROSSING NEVADA AND UTAH...PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE SLOWER TIMING. CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 60F. NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. A VERY SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECT THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. RS LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST IDAHO WILL BE MOSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY. A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER AGAIN. FOR SUNDAY...A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISTINCTLY DIFFERING TIMING ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS DELAYS THE ARRIVAL UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DSH AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF PIH AND IDA. DSH HYDROLOGY...ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED FLOWS ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENT ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE HENRYS FORK NEAR REXBURG WILL APPROACH BANK FULL BY THURSDAY. RS && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
922 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 922 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 A WARM AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS DIURNAL CURVE...SO GOING TO UP TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S. A FEW 87 OR 88 DEGREE READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS AND DRY SFC CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. ALSO...SCALED BACK THE SKY COVER WITH ONLY A VERY SCATTERED MID LEVEL DECK ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WE SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. CONVECTION SO FAR REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BUT RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS. TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON AVERAGE. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES..ESPECIALLY AT JKL AND SJS. STRAY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF MVFR COULD PASS NEAR SJS 14Z TO 19Z...BUT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND SUSTAINED AROUND 12KT ESPECIALLY AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
748 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. CONVECTION SO FAR REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BUT RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS. TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON AVERAGE. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES..ESPECIALLY AT JKL AND SJS. STRAY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF MVFR COULD PASS NEAR SJS 14Z TO 19Z...BUT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND SUSTAINED AROUND 12KT ESPECIALLY AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUSTED BIG TIME AS THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS ERRED BY AS MUCH AS 10F TOO WARM. THIS MAY BE A PROBLEM WITH TOO MUCH VERTICAL MIXING IN THE MODELS. THE EASTERLIES COMING OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH APPEAR TO BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND IT SNOWED IN MINOT. FOR TODAY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE ECM AND A 50 PERCENT BLEND OF THE GEMREG AND MOS WHICH REPRESENT THE COOLER MODEL SOLNS. THERE ARE 13 MODELS TO CHOOSE FROM AND AT NORTH PLATTE THE RUC FORECASTS A HIGH OF 81F TODAY AND THE ECM 70F. SO WE WILL TRY UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH MID 70S IN NORTH PLATTE. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SENDING COOL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP STRONG S-SE RETURN FLOW THROUGH WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. THE MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ALL SOLNS KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH PRODUCES DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FACT THAT NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANYWHERE NEAR SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN BY THE GFS...THE FCST IS DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST IN THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH A GOOD STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEK OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE 500MB LOW CENTERS ARE VERY CLOSE IN PLACEMENT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA...GOING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE...MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST INFLUENCES FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THE QUESTION AT HAND FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IF CONVECTION WILL FIRE...AND IF IT DOES...WHAT AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACTIVITY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY PUSHING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT. BUT...MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING BY SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON...CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY ABUNDANT DRY AIR WHICH DOESN/T AID IN GROWING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CHANCES IN MAINLY FOR THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO COLORADO. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY...AND NOTHING LOOKING TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH...EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE DRYLINE IS LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOOKING TO PULL A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT FOR A WHILE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME...THAT INFLUENCE IS LOOKING TO BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IMPACTING ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...COLDER AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING AROUND THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS DIFFERENCES WILL CAUSE FRONTGENETICAL FORCING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT A GOOD DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT DECENT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP...WITH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL WEST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING...WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...LIMITED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING ACCUMULATING...OR THE SNOW FALLING IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES FROM MOST MODELS ARE JUST 3 TO 4 DEGREES TOO WARM...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO FALL AND PERHAPS ACCUMULATE. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE POOLS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...ON THURSDAY LOOKING FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES...COULD BRING DOWN 40KT WINDS FROM 850MB. THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BEYOND THAT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN FROM THE LONGER TERM MODELS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES AND CNTL PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...BROOKS AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM APPRECIABLY ALL AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL...WILL TRANSLATE LIKELY POPS TO THE NRN/NERN CWFA THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE SW CWFA. HIGHER POPS ARE BEING EMPLOYED N AND NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S/WV IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST SO HAVE LOWERED THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A MINIMUM IN PCPN COVERAGE. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWFA BY THIS AFTN. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE DIFFICULT. HAVE USED A SREF BLEND AS A STARTING POINT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR N AND NE TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM EARLY ON NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH BUT REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. AMPLE SUNSHINE ACRS THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONCUR THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORMS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AS WEAK FORCING IS DEPICTED IN THIS AREA. THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BECOME WARM SECTORED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF THE CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL RESIDE ON FRI/SAT/SUN ATTENDANT TO APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...PUSHING A SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME RANGE IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIMINISHES SAT/SUN AS DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE DISTRIBUTION/TIMING IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE EJECTS AND DEEPENS WITH A LITTLE MORE FERVOR ON THURS AFTN/FRIDAY...BEING ENVELOPED INTO LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW OVER SCNTL CANADA ON FRI AS IT PASSES WELL TO OUR NW INTO MN AND WRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. WITH PARENT DYNAMICS ALREADY ABSORBED INTO STATIONARY SCNTL CANADA CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL FRONTOLYTIC PROCESSES WILL BE ONGOING AND HAVE DOUBTS HOW STRONG /OR FAR SOUTH/ THIS FRONT WILL GET THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN UPSTREAM ENERGY COMING BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. MOST 04.12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO TRICKLE FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER AREA BEFORE STALLING...AND PERHAPS AWAITING SRN STREAM WAVE TO BE INDUCED AND THEN RIDE ALONG IT. EITHER WAY...ALL 04.12Z AND 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUPPORT ENSEMBLE MEAN/PROBABILISTICS THAT SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN MODEST INSTBY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT/AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. NOT REALLY TOO CONCERNED ABOUT A MORE APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT - LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW IS RATHER MARGINAL AS THE FRONT LOSES STEAM...AND AND LACK OF FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS AND SLOWING FRONT ISN/T TYPICALLY THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR. ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IF SRN STREAM WAVE INDEED RIPPLES THE BOUNDARY SAT/SAT NIGHT /AS PER 04.00Z ECMWF/. A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE...WHICH MAKES SUNDAY FORECAST VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN IS FAIRLY LIGHT (AND SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY)...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO EXISTED...AND COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO (AS INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS) IS THAT ONLY VFR RAIN SHOWERS (WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES) WILL PREVAIL FOR A WHILE. RAIN WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE NWS WILMINGTON OHIO FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WINDS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING...AND A VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE DAYTON AND CINCINNATI TAFS. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 935 AM EDT MONDAY... UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH UP WSR-88D TRENDS. IN GENERAL INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SWODY1 HAS PLACED SEE TEXT FOR PORTIONS OF CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. UPDATED HWO TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR TAKES FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OUT OF CWA...THEN A SECOND ROUND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 23Z THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL RNKWRFARW KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE NAM AND GFS PLACED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELECTED TO PLACED HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GIVE FORECAST HIGHS A CHANCE...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY COOL HIGHS. MORE CHANGES LATER... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY... WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE AND REINFORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY... NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC- LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A BETTER CHANCE IN THE KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONED SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
732 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY... WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE AND REINFORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY... NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC- LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A BETTER CHANCE IN THE KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONED SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014 OVERALL..CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE. STILL FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LESS WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING DESPITE CLOUD COVER TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT MORE...BASED ON THE LATEST SYNTHETIC SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AT LEAST PART OF THE WAVE CLOUD HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY PLANNING ON MAKING MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014 HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO TODAY WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SHALLOW PLAINS AIRMASS DID MAKE A BIT OF WESTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE REVERSED BY EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN A SSE WIND AND MIXING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER...BUT NOT AS SHARP A DIFFERENCE AS YESTERDAY. SLIGHT COOLING AT LOW TO MID LEVELS SINCE YESTERDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS TODAY...AND THERE IS ALSO A BIT LESS WIND. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014 MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THOSE PERIODS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT...BUT MOSTLY AGREE ON PUTTING COLORADO UNDER COOL...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CARRY SOME PUNCH WITH IT...PRIMARILY OFF TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE COLD POOL ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HAD SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH DID NOT NEED ANY ADJUSTMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM WARMER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS MOVING OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS LATE IN THE WEEK AS COOL TEMPERATURES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS LINGER OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2014 CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A BIT MORE EASTERLY AT KDEN. WINDS TO THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HINTS AT A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING NORTH OF DENVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHIFT THIS CYCLONE INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY BY 22Z...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS KDEN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOUTHEASTERLIES AT KDEN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTERLY DEVELOPMENT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY...SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...D-L SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD LONG TERM...DANKERS AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
340 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THROUGH 00Z...COLD POOL ALOFT PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING S ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND E MA COASTAL WATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.0- 7.5 C/KM ACROSS E MA AND SBCAPES NEAR 250 J/KG. HRRR KEEPS THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM. CLEARING TREND TOWARD EVENING. TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY... LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -25C. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR ABUNDANT CU/AC TO DEVELOP. STILL A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT LESS THAN 50 SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 1-2C WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO HIGH TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S NW HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SEABREEZES. TUESDAY NIGHT... MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS NW MA AND SW NH. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... * HIGHLIGHTS... - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK - UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 05.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE SAME SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM WITH TYPICAL BIASES AND ISSUES RESOLVING THE FINAL SETUP OF A COLD CUTOFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOT ONLY IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE BUT AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE TO SPLIT DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ENSEMBLES AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A WEAKENING CUTOFF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...FOLLOWING AN H5 RIDGE WHICH WILL DELIVER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD AS TO WHERE THIS CUTOFF FINALLY SETS UP WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED FOR THE FINAL TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ATTENDANT LOW PRES /WHICH WILL PASS TO THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND/ AND ANY SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVES. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED PATTERN PARTICULARLY FOR THE FRI-WEEKEND...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAFL AND WHEN IT FALLS REMAINS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AT THIS TIME. DETAILS... WED AND THU... DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AS H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE E OF NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WX TO PREVAIL. DESPITE WHAT LOOKS TO BE EASY MIXING TO AROUND H85...TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 0C BY PEAK MIXING...SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. BY WED NIGHT AND THU A SFC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME JAMMED TO THE SW IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...THEREFORE ITS OVERRUNNING PROCESSES MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER N THAN SW CT. HAVE MOST POPS HIGHLIGHTED THERE. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENED MCS WHICH DEVELOPS W OF THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD ITS MOISTURE/COLD POOL HOLD TOGETHER IT MAY DELIVER SOME RAINFALL FURTHER N THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT IN ANY CASE A POTENTIALLY SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM SW TO NE. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL THU AS WELL GIVEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MARINE INFLUENCED FLOW. THEREFORE...DESPITE MODELS ATTEMPTING TO BRING IN NEAR +4C AIR AT H85 FEEL IT WILL STRUGGLE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMALS...IF IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR. ONE KEY TO WATCH WILL BE FINAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. FRI AND THE WEEKEND... LIKELY THE MOST UNSETTLED PERIOD REGIONWIDE AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES A RUN AT MOVING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTS FROM LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING W OF THE GREAT LAKES. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT ACTUALLY DOES CROSS THE REGION AS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AND EVEN THE GFS TO SOME EXTENT/ STILL SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL IN BOTH MASS AND THETA FIELDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.0-1.25 INCHES /NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL/ AND THE SFC LOW PRES AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING THANKS TO BLOCKED FLOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE E. THEREFORE...WITH THE COMBINATION OF TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY WAVES BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY FRI-SUN...AND THE FACT THAT A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT...A PERIOD OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IS WARRANTED AND WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED WET EVENT UNTIL BETTER HANDLING OF THE INITIALIZING CUTOFF IS OBSERVED. INSTABILITY ISSUES ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND ARE ULTIMATELY ALLOWED IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS ARE THE SAME STORY...BUT THE SUGGESTION OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. EARLY NEXT WEEK... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF RIDGING /SUGGESTIVE OF DRY WX/ IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES ENDING AROUND SUNDAY...THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TRANSLATE INTO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF ANY DRY WX. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN TOWARD LOW OR NIL POPS AT LEAST FOR MON AND TUE GIVEN AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY THAT THE LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO MOVE E BY SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...VFR CIGS 4-6K FT WITH NW GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLD SHOWERS EASTERN MA AND RI. TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VFR. BKN CU/AC DEVELOPING DURING TUE THEN CLEARING TUE NIGHT. NW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZES UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW BY LATE DAY/EVENING. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS. THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS WRN CT AND EXTREME SE MA. WINDS MAINLY S TO SE. OVERNIGHT FOG A POSSIBILITY. SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY NW WINDS UNDER 20 KT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NW TO THE SW BY WED EVENING...THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE S TO SE FOR THU INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN WATERS ON THU AND FRI ALONG WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME FOG LEADING TO VSBY REDUCTIONS. SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN/FOG THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY COMBINE WITH A GRADUALLY BUILDING S SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT BY LATE DAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUE AS MIN RH VALUES DECREASE TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER STATE OFFICIALS. NOTE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ON WED AS WELL...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...KJC/DOODY MARINE...KJC/DOODY FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THEN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THROUGH 00Z...COLD POOL ALOFT PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING S ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND E MA COASTAL WATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.0- 7.5 C/KM ACROSS E MA AND SBCAPES NEAR 250 J/KG. HRRR KEEPS THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM. CLEARING TREND TOWARD EVENING. TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY... LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -25C. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR ABUNDANT CU/AC TO DEVELOP. STILL A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT LESS THAN 50 SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 1-2C WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO HIGH TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S NW HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SEABREEZES. TUESDAY NIGHT... MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS NW MA AND SW NH. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK - UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND */ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE... A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED THROUGH FRIDAY WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE WARM-FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SW AGAINST COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO THE NE. ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO WARM-AIR-ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. BUT CONTINUED SPREAD WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST. PER THE GEFS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT SENSIBLE-WEATHER DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED THOUGH DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION-AMOUNTS AND SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. */ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A DRY FORECAST. SOME CONCERN OVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DUE TO THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT. THOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE... WINDS WILL BE BELOW RED-FLAG WARNING CRITERIA /25 MPH/ AND WE ARE IN THE PRE-GREEN-UP STAGES. NO NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE-LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING AROUND +2C. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM-FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR OTHERWISE. LIGHT NW-FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WARM-FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE NE-CONUS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF BROAD-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS FORCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG THE WARM-FRONT WILL YIELD LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THE BETTER OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND AS COLD-AIR-DAMMING TO THE N/E INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING E OF THE DEEP- TROUGHING BUILDING OUT OF THE W-CONUS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CONVEYED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER AS TO THE STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF POTENTIAL COLD-AIR-DAMMING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OVER-RUNNING. DO NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... CONTINUED VARIANCE AMONG MODEL-FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING N- AND S-STREAM DISTURBANCES ALONG A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE GEFS EXHIBITS SIGNALS OF A DECENT PWAT AXIS THE MEAN VALUES OF WHICH EXCEED 1-INCH COLLOCATED WITH ANOMALOUS S/SW MOISTURE TRANSPORT +2 SD /SLIGHTLY GREATER IN AREAL EXTENT THAN YESTERDAYS 04.0Z GEFS/. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO EXACT SPECIFICS. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS. THOUGH GEFS MEAN H85 TEMPS +10-12C SUGGEST WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS YIELD COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS. SO THERE IS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN THE PLAUSIBILITY OF A WARM-SECTOR SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY. SHALL PREVAIL WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE-NORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK... 8-DAY CONSENSUS FORECAST PER THE CANADIAN STILL SUGGESTS A STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...DISTURBED WEATHER MAY MAKE A RETURN. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...VFR CIGS 4-6K FT WITH NW GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLD SHOWERS EASTERN MA AND RI. TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VFR. BKN CU/AC DEVELOPING DURING TUE THEN CLEARING TUE NIGHT. NW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZES UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-FLOW DIMINISHING TURNING SW. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORES WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE WITH LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. -SHRA ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY... INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE NE. WINDS SHIFTING S AND INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD-FRONT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY NW WINDS UNDER 20 KT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW-WINDS DIMINISHING TURNING W. SEA-BREEZE ALONG THE SHORES WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. WAVES BELOW 5 FEET. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY OVER THE SW INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING NE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUE AS MIN RH VALUES DECREASE TO 25-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. HOWEVER...THE UNDERLYING FUEL BED IS STILL DAMP PER STATE OFFICIALS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL FIRE WEATHER...KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
202 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S JUST NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THE ONLY PLACE THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80S TODAY MAY BE THE FAR NORTH. THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT FORECAST. THUS...NO CHANGES WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 A WARM AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS DIURNAL CURVE...SO GOING TO UP TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S. A FEW 87 OR 88 DEGREE READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS AND DRY SFC CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. ALSO...SCALED BACK THE SKY COVER WITH ONLY A VERY SCATTERED MID LEVEL DECK ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WE SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. CONVECTION SO FAR REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BUT RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KY ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TN BORDER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WAS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN IL SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WV. OTHER CONVECTION WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EARLIER PASSED NEAR KIND AND WAS PASSING NEAR THE KCVG VICINITY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE PATTERN SET TO AMPLIFY...THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT MAY BE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SATURATION OR DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS DISTURBANCES WORK AROUND THE RIDGE BEING DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...THUS JUST SLIGHT POPS. THE REST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP IT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED THIS MORNING FROM FLEMING COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO ELLIOTT...MARTIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF PIKE COUNTY. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RATHER DEEP MIXING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR SOME 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ADVERTISED AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO OUR STATE OF GREENNESS STILL LAGGING A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. RH SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DROP TO 25 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX T ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR SLIGHTLY BEHIND AVERAGE GREENNESS. TONIGHT...DESPITE THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STILL BISECT THE CWA...THERE WILL EITHER BE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TO TIME IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT MAX T A BIT FROM THEIR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED AS RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WHILE GREENUP IS PROGRESSING NICELY...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD FROM THEIR PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE GETTING SHOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER US OR VERY CLOSE BY...AND BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DROP HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD NOT YIELD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS... EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND THE SFC LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE SET UP ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NV AND S CA. CLOSER TO HOME THE 500MB RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S...UP THROUGH MANITOBA AND QUEBEC. THE INITIAL GLANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE NW CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AS INCREASED WAA SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING 2C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO AN AVG 5C BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ON SSE WINDS. DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT...THAT IS UNLESS ISOTROPIC LIFT/WWA RAIN SHOWERS COME IN AS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE SET UP AROUND NE/KS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASICALLY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES. MUCH OF THE NE PROGRESS OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING FROM NE TO SW MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING 500MB TROUGH SLIDING TO THE NE ND AREA. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF RAIN AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WITH E-SE SFC WINDS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WITH LATEST FCST PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE FCST MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES FOR THE INCLUSION OF TS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN GIVE THE ELEVATED NATURE. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE STACKED SFC-500MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER MN. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWED MORE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVED ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY...MORE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...WITH A POTENT SECONDARY FRONT SWINGING IN AND FINALLY CHANGING THE NEAR SFC WINDS TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH AGREEMENT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WILL BE 00-06Z FRI OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR NOW...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY ON TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR DAYS 6/SUNDAY AND 7/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOW SOMEWHERE TO OUR W AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE 500MB LOW STILL STUCK ACROSS CANADA /NEAR N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA/. THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER N CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT IWD EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS. LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION HAS CONTINUED IS STEADY DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...GOING BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AROUND 8 AM SUNDAY STILL AT PAINESDALE...AND THE 16IN OF SNOW DEPTH AT HERMAN AROUND 8 AM MONDAY. THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF ACRS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF SLOWLY BLDG RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SFC HI PRES RDG IS EXTENDING OVER UPR MI TO THE S OF HI PRES CENTER ACRS NW ONTARIO...PASSAGE OF SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW/SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB RESULTED IN SOME -RA MIXED WITH SN THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. BUT INCRSG DNVA/MID LVL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN A DIMINISHING TREND OF THE PCPN THIS AFTN EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS HAVE LINGERED PER HIER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB. THESE LOWER CLDS EXTENDS WNW THRU MOST OF THE N HALF OF MN AND NDAKOTA/SCENTRAL CANADA IN THE SFC E FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. THERE HAS BEEN MORE CLRG OVER THE ECENTRAL UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. TNGT...WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG HGTS... EXPECT DRY WX TO DOMINATE. BUT EVEN THOUGH SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO EXPAND FM NW ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...CONCERNED SOME LOWER CLDS/SC THAT EXTEND WELL TO THE WNW MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE MORE...ALBEIT LGT PCPN FELL THIS MRNG. PAINTED THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MOCLR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TUE...UPR MI WL BE UNDER BLDG RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OUT MOSUNNY...EXPECT THE RETURN OF SOME MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH RETURN WAD/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND WINDS VEER TO THE SSW. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 3-4C IN THE AFTN AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR H8 ON FCST SDNGS INDICATES MAX TEMPS WL REACH 55 TO 60 AWAY FM LK MODERATION IN LLVL ESE FLOW TO THE W OF RETREATING HI PRES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE U.P. TO START TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT REGION IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE-END OF THE THIS WORK WEEK. FOR TUESDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMING TEMPS OVER LAND (INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S) AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST)...KEEPING HIGHS COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE AFTERNOON...BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-500MB OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SINCE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT...TEND TO LIKE THE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH IDEA WITH THE WARM FRONT UNTIL THE LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THAT IDEA. EVEN WITH THAT IDEA...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID TREND UP TO LOW END LIKELYS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS. TRENDED POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED. IF IT IS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS SHOWN WITH THE 00Z GFS THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE PERIOD WITH INDICATIONS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE CUTS OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHIFTS THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD PUT THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. THE GEM IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD PUT THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. OPTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND GO WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW MUCAPE/SHOWALTER VALUES FOR THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ELEVATED. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAIN AND CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO BECOME ELEVATED BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THIS AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY DUE TO CONVECTION...AS THEY NORMALLY ARE DURING THE WARM SEASON...SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL...SEEMS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 0.5IN AND DEPENDING WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND THEN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASE IN FOG WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO THE WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE VERY COLD (AND IN SOME AREAS ICE COVERED) GREAT LAKES. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...DID EXPAND THE FOG OVER THE LAND AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. USED A COMBINATION OF WIND DIRECTION AND ELEVATION TO DEFINE THE AREAS...WITH SOME DECREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO MIXING. SINCE THERE WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THAT TIME...SHOWED THE WORST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WITH UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND IT SHOULD BRING A WEST TO EAST DECREASE IN POPS AND FOG. THE 18Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF DO HINT AT THE LOW LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWED THE DRIER CONSENSUS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THEN LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT IWD EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 WITH HI PRES LINGERING NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU TUE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP ON WED INTO THU AS A LO PRES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH AND SHARPEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES LATER ON WED/THU...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLDER/ICE COVERED LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM THE SE TO THE W ON THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE LO PRES TRACKS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LO WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY SAT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER LEVELS. LOCATIONS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE. WITH RELATIVELY DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...RUNOFF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WOODED AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE WESTERN UPPER MI. THE LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC STILL HAS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH PAINESDALE...DONKEN...AND WINONA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE 20IN OF SNOW DEPTH REPORTED AT 8 AM SUNDAY STILL AT PAINESDALE. THE AREAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MELTING SNOW WOULD BE THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO SLOWLY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING SNOW. FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OUT OF THE PRICKETT DAM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGHER LEVELS ON THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES. WITH THE ALREADY HIGH LEVELS...ALSM4/CLLM4 MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A HALF OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIVER LEVELS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SUMMER PREVIEW WILL BE AIRING ON THE START FOR THURSDAY EVENING. WE WERE A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS A BIT SLOWER ON INCREASING POPS...AND A BIT HIGHER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CRW-CKB CORRIDOR ON EAST ON FRIDAY. PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY FRIDAY...AS INITIAL ENERGY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH LIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. 500 MB DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASS BY OUR VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HIGHEST POPS ARE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE FRONT NEVER CLEARS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF BUILDS BACK RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR DAY 7/MONDAY. THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST BY MOTHERS DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT NEVER CLEARS...STILL VULNERABLE TO ANY WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. I TRENDED TOWARD LOWER CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SLIGHTER WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HTS AND CRW EXTENDING DUE EAST/WEST EXHIBITING RELATIVELY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...DECREASED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER DEWPTS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND CLOUD COVER FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV THIS MORNING KEPT CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE E WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...LINGERING EARLY MORNING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MVFR IN SHRA / TSRA THIS PERIOD...WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...KTB/JM/LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
304 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...BY MID WEEK...SETTING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COURTESY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S OR PERHAPS REACH 90 DEGREES...THE WARMEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BASING FORECAST ON WARM FRONT EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. YET...AS THAT 500 MB TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO...EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT IN OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 500 MB TROF IN SOUTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO AFTER A PREVIEW OF SUMMER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING... HAVE POPS INCREASING DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE MIDWESTERN FRONT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE LATE FRIDAY WITH THAT ENERGY LIFTING NORTH. THEN EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. STILL THINK WE CAN KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN GUIDANCE...COUNTING ON NO LARGE INTERVALS OF CLEARING. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HTS AND CRW EXTENDING DUE EAST/WEST EXHIBITING RELATIVELY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...DECREASED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER DEWPTS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND CLOUD COVER FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV THIS MORNING KEPT CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE E WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...LINGERING EARLY MORNING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MVFR IN SHRA / TSRA THIS PERIOD...WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SUMMER PREVIEW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT AND CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ESE WITH SOME LIGHTNING BEING PICKED UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WV/VA BORDER NEAR SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS CO...DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS DEWPTS IN OBS REMAINED WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NAM OVER DOING MOISTURE ADVECTION SO WENT WITH DRIER RUC SOLUTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70`S AND OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEARING 80. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT EXITS TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER...WILL BE INCHING TOWARDS A MUCH WARMER...AND MORE HUMID PERIOD. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS...WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. MUCH WARMER AIR AS OF LATE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BASING FORECAST ON WARM FRONT EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. YET...AS THAT 500 MB TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO...EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT IN OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 500 MB TROF IN SOUTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO AFTER A PREVIEW OF SUMMER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING... HAVE POPS INCREASING DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE MIDWESTERN FRONT. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE LATE FRIDAY WITH THAT ENERGY LIFTING NORTH. THEN EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. STILL THINK WE CAN KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN GUIDANCE...COUNTING ON NO LARGE INTERVALS OF CLEARING. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HTS AND CRW EXTENDING DUE EAST/WEST EXHIBITING RELATIVELY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...DECREASED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER DEWPTS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND CLOUD COVER FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV THIS MORNING KEPT CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE E WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...LINGERING EARLY MORNING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MVFR IN SHRA / TSRA THIS PERIOD...WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
215 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT TRAILED FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER...DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY... RAISED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. FOCUS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SIMILAR TO RNK WRFARW. CAP TO SOUTH IS HOLDING BACK DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 935 AM EDT MONDAY... UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH UP WSR-88D TRENDS. IN GENERAL INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SWODY1 HAS PLACED SEE TEXT FOR PORTIONS OF CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. UPDATED HWO TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR TAKES FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OUT OF CWA...THEN A SECOND ROUND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 23Z THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL RNKWRFARW KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE NAM AND GFS PLACED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELECTED TO PLACED HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GIVE FORECAST HIGHS A CHANCE...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY COOL HIGHS. MORE CHANGES LATER... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... LINE OF SHOWERS WAS PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE SHOWERS WERE LINED UP FROM NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS TO SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF CHARLESTON WV. THE ACTUAL FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE HAVE REASONABLE PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST END OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH IN TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH A POCKET OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST BEHIND IT. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED A MID LEVEL CAP AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG TODAY WITH MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ASIDE FROM NEAR THE SURFACE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SUNDAY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY... WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE REMAINS NO TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD OR EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE THAT DOES NOT FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND PWATS. KEPT ONLY SLT CHC POPS CONSIDERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON TUESDAY...SHOULD KEEP AN EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZE AND REINFORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SW VA. THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS A PESKY BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. WAA WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C COULD PUSH THE CITIES TO 90F THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY COOLER...SO HOLDING OFF FOLLOWING THE HOT MEX MOS UNTIL THE MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS LESSENS. ATTM...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER VALUES OF THE MEX AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY... NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXHIBITED AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION FRI...BUT HOLDS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE ENERGY BACK TO THE WEST...WHICH QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION BY SUN-MON. THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THE FIRST TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NE U.S...THEN BRINGS THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODELS PRESENT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC- LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SAT...THEN BROAD BRUSHED CHC POPS FOR SUN-MON UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION AND BETTER CONSISTENCY IS OBTAINED AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS CLEARLY THE POTENTIAL FOR BONAFIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FRI- MON TIME FRAME. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT COULD REMAIN IN THE 80S YET FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT MAY SHIFT DIRECTION PERIODICALLY AS THE FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT FROM ILLINOIS INTO VIRGINIA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP AT KDAN AND KLYH WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HAVE KEPT A BETTER CHANCE IN THE KBCB/KLWB/KBLF AND KROA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LINING UP NICELY WITH LATEST RUN OF RNK WRFARW. THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAD GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT IT NORTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONED SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/KK