Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
748 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF BREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...TWO MORE LINES OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER AND 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. BY THE TIME THESE SHOWERS
MAKE IT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...LOSS OF DAYTIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...00Z ALB SOUNDING REVEALS
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE...WHICH COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME
EVAPORATIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE SHOWERS. ENOUGH LIGHTNING UPSTREAM
TO CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS APPROACHES.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SEEM TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP PATTERN AND SUPPORT INCREASING
POPS LATER THIS EVENING.
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPLAY OF SATURDAY IN TERMS OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND
TSTM POSSIBILITY. SHOWERS WILL START OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT AS A COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS OVER THE
REGION AND SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK ZONES...AND 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
WITH NO SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING WELL PAST SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE
MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DECREASES...AND POPS
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUNRISE THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
DRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT OFF
TO OUR EAST...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON MONDAY
WITH ONLY NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AS A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO MARK THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY...INCLUDING WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. LOW TEMPS IN THIS REGION WILL BE IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S AND
FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF IT APPEARS IT WILL GET ANY COLDER
THAN THAT. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST BREEZE EACH DAY. WINDS
COULD BE A BIT GUSTY ON TUESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS WE WILL BE POTENTIALLY DEALING WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPROACHING IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY HINDER THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS COMPLETELY OVERCAST SKIES
COULD LEAD TO COOLER READINGS BUT JUST A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING. KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY END UP MORE ON THE MILD
SIDE DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS ONE OR
MORE SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY PASS THROUGH. THE LATEST ECMWF
INDICATING A POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A
STALLING BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PROLONGED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT
THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS LOW SO OMITTED MENTION IN
THE TAFS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WILL BE
FROM AROUND 02Z-07Z ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE
SHOWERS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING AT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW.
EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 8-15 KT WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY
FROM THE WEST AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED WITH
GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EACH FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH BASIN AVERAGE OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.AVIATION...
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. AFTER NOON...A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20-30 PERCENT
OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT KAPF
AND KPBI...WHERE VCSH IN PLACE. BY LATE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST...LIGHT THIS MORNING THEN 10-15 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE, BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HRRR SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TAKING PLACE NORTH OF THE LAKE. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE FORECAST DETAILS. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE CUT-
OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.
GETTING KICKED TO THE NORTHEAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGHS DEVELOP TO ITS
WEST. ALL OF THIS WILL AID IN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER ON THE
TIMING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. AT ANY RATE,
STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH A LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW. HOWEVER, THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A 3-6KM LAPSE RATE OF
5.6C/KM THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 6.3C/KM FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
7C/KM ON MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT REMAINING SIMILAR ON FRIDAY
TO TODAY AT AROUND 1.25-1.35 INCHES BUT THEN INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE 500MB TEMPERATURES WARM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE RANGE OF -7.5C TO -9C TODAY WARMING
TO RANGE OF -7C TO -8C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN OTHER WORDS, MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME EVEN MORE UNIMPRESSIVE EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE FLOW BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, DUE TO A WARM SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT BY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE CELLS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER ABOUT MODEL CONSENSUS, THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAM
ARE ALL SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SO THINK THE NON POP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE PREMATURE SO WILL INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY TO 30% FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND TAILORING DOWNWARD FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A DRY FORECAST AS A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BECOME A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6
FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 7 FEET BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 87 70 / 30 20 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 88 73 / 10 10 40 30
MIAMI 87 76 87 73 / 10 10 40 30
NAPLES 86 74 83 69 / 10 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE STREAM OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
AND THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. INLAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND WILL ORIGINATE OUT OF MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST STAND A BIT OF A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...BUT EVEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE RAP KEEP THESE AREAS LARGELY DRY. THE HIGHER POPS ARE CONFINED
TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NUDGE THE DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FURTHER OFFSHORE. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT A SOLID MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WE MAY START TO SEE SOME THINNING AND SCATTERING
VERY LATE...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL
BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING WEAK COLD ADVECTION WHICH COULD
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG
THE COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT RISING HEIGHTS AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. IN
FACT...THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS
WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WE ARE
NOW SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MIDDLE 80S ON FRIDAY. WE WILL PROBABLY NOT BREAK ANY
RECORD HIGHS SINCE THEY ARE ALL IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER SITE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NOTHING WITH ENOUGH INTENSITY TO DECREASE
VISIBILITIES. A SOLID MID LEVEL DECK WILL STAY IN PLACE AND THEN
CLEAR OUT STARTING TOMORROW MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY ON...BEFORE
INCREASING AND MORE WESTERLY LATE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIDES
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT TO THE EAST. THIS INCREASE WILL BE
QUITE MODEST HOWEVER...WITH SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT
WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ELEVATE WINDS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. IN FACT...THIS BRIEF
SURGING WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THROUGH MID
WEEK...EXPECT WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND NO MORE THAN 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JHP
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JHP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL PROGGED TO ENHANCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. HRRR STILL SUPPORTS
THIS...AND WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING PAINFULLY
SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT NOW STRETCHING FROM
GREENVILLE THROUGH ATHENS AND ATLANTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO RESULT IN
CONTINUED GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST...SHOULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN POPS THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT LIKELY COVERAGE
REDUCED TO CHANCE POPS.
THIS BREAK LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM ALABAMA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT ENHANCING AND LIFTING
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD. HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO THE NAMMB
WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND BRING HEALTHY POP COVERAGE OF
80 PERCENT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER BUT TAPER OFF RAPIDLY TO LESS
THAN 20 FOR THE ATLANTA METRO. FEEL LIKE THUNDER THREAT MAY BE OVER
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS MID
MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA PLANNED. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
ON TEMPS TONIGHT AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT
TEMP DROP IN CHECK.
FINAL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL AND SHOULD PRODUCE A CLEARING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH FRONT FINALLY CLEARING THE AREA AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...SO WE WILL SEE CLOUDS OFF AN ON THROUGH DAY 7 BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO THE FAR
NE EARLY MONDAY BUT LOOKS TO STALL AND MOVE BACK NE INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO AGAIN NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUING TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY MORNING THEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY TO THURSDAY.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT ALL SITES. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING 4000-5000FT CIGS INTO CSG/MCN THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A CU FIELD SHOULD FORM BRINGING
SCT-BKN050 THIS AFTERNOON. ALL CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 50 72 48 77 / 20 20 5 5
ATLANTA 52 70 51 75 / 10 10 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 44 65 43 71 / 5 5 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 46 69 46 75 / 5 5 5 5
COLUMBUS 53 72 51 77 / 50 50 20 5
GAINESVILLE 51 68 50 74 / 5 5 0 5
MACON 52 70 48 77 / 60 60 20 5
ROME 46 68 46 76 / 5 5 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 47 71 45 76 / 20 20 5 5
VIDALIA 57 67 53 76 / 80 80 50 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
BASED ON RADAR AND OBS I HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS ACROSS
W/SW PORTIONS OF CWA INTO EARLY EVE FOR BAND OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WITH CONSIDERABLE T/TD
SPREADS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WAS PROVIDING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY. FOR
THE MOST PART THE REGION WAS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW
BAND OF RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.
THE RAIN WAS COMING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER WHICH WAS CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THE RAIN AND MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING IN A
REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A 120KT H3 JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO
WEAKENS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH BASED RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN
ACROSS THE DVN CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY TO FAR NORTHEAST WITH
THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO THE RAIN SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FGEN
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WHICH THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING WITH TIME.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THINKING
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. H3 JET MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. MID/LOW LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN THAT SHOULD
IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
KEPT ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT SOUTH...A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE
MIDDLE 50S NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WELCOMED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AND ON PCPN
CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCE TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA DRAPED OVER
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A 40KT LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND
PROGGED 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON SPEED OF WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH. CWA TO BE COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER
70S/MIDDLE 80S AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO
FEEL HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLJ TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF JET ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA. LATEST MODELS TRACK THESE STORMS EAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY NEAR
THE CWA. NONETHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THIS BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAKER FORCING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. LATEST
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOME
WITH IT NOT ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS SLOWER FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES WITH FORECAST HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
DURING THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE JET AXIS/STRONG SHEAR
PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR THIS IN ITS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THIS TIME FRAME BY LATER SHIFTS.
REST OF EXTENDED...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS DEW
POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS WITH SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
TURN TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE 10-15 KTS. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING BOUTS OF MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 70S ARE OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM WHERE THE WINDS STAY UP.
SOME LOCATIONS ON BOTH SIDES WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS SO COULD SEE
SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO DROP.
AS TODAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF WHERE THE FRONT IS
DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST WITH FRONT AND IS THE
COOLEST. OF THE MODELS THAT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH...THE NAM IS CLOSER
TO THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING WELL RIGHT NOW. MOST OF THE
OUTPUT HOW MORE OF THE FORECAST ON THE WARM SIDE...AND WILL BE
GOING THAT DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHEAST CORNER LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO REFER
TO THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR TOMORROWS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LONGWAVE
TROUGH.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY WITH COOLING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERING. MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY SHOULD POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FOG BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS.
FUEL STATUS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH GREEN-UP ONGOING ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DUE TO DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. THE DRYLINE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST DURING PERIODS OF BEST
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY SO BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BUT DO NOT THINK A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS LIKELY AT
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPORADIC SO NOT EVERYBODY WILL
RECEIVE A NEEDED RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA SEPARATES A HOT DRY AIR MASS
TO THE WEST AND A WARM SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO THE EAST.
KMCK WILL LIE NEAR OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN 10
PERCENT...OF FOG FORMING AROUND SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KMCK TAF ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LIKE TODAY...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEFINITELY REACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON FUEL STATUS AND ON THE WINDS. WHAT DATA CAN BE
FOUND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE ARE IN GREEN-UP BUT THAT MAY BE MOSTLY
FOR GROWING CROPS. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY
AND REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT
WIND SPEEDS. IF THE STRONGER NAM WINDS WORK OUT...THEN SOME
LOCATION IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA COULD REACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
ISSUE A WATCH WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT NEEDING TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MAY
4. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY.
GOODLAND.....91 IN 2012
MCCOOK.......94 IN 2012
BURLINGTON...92 IN 1963
HILL CITY....93 IN 2012
COLBY........92 IN 1924
TRIBUNE......94 IN 1952
YUMA.........89 IN 1962
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1127 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME IS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISC: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TERM AND BEYOND.
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND EXITING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK BY THE EVENING AS THE REGION GETS UNDER SOME UPPER
RIDGING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER THE BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AROUND
60F EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST, AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ONTARIO
REGION. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM AND RAP INTO TONIGHT W/A NICE
BREAK IN THE PRECIP UP THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE CAN BE
SEEN WELL ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY W/ITS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS ALL HINGES ON CLOUDS
ARRIVE SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING
EARLY ON. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STEADIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND DOWNEAST.
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY A WET DAY W/RAIN AS LOW PRES SLIDES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION GET UNDER A SW FLOW FROM THE SFC
THROUGH 700MBS. THE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND
W/THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES W/SREF MUCAPES OF
300 J/KG. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT K INDEX OF 30 AND TOTAL TOTALS
OF 55+. LIS DROP TO NEAR 0. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTION AND DECIDED TO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO BE STABLE ENOUGH KEPT THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS TO A MINIMUM IF NONE
AT ALL. HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. SOME
DEFORMATION BANDING PRECIP POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LOW.
TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.30 TO
0.75". THIS ADDITIONAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE RIVER BASINS AND CAUSE
THE STAGES TO RISE SOME BUT NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE LOW AS CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALOFT. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL BLEND
THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. SKY COVER FROM THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM HE SUPPER BLEND.
HAVE USED THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CREST THEN CREST OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL USE HE SUPPER BLEND TO POPULATE
ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB SUNDAY MORNING AND THE IFR EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
FOR KBGR AND KBHB AND EVEN VFR AS THIS REGION GETS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE LOW AS SW FLOW SETS UP.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SSW
SWELL ATTM ON THE WATERS W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FT. EXPECT THIS
SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A 30KT LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS UP A BIT W/GUST TO 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE SREF AND
GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES:
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM OUT TO 0000Z TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1019 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE: AS OF LATE EVE...SKIES REMAIN M/C ACROSS THE REGION W/ A
FEW LGT LIFTING NEWRD ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE FA.
CURRENT FCST ON TRACK W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE CYCLE...
PREV DISC: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TERM AND BEYOND.
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND EXITING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK BY THE EVENING AS THE REGION GETS UNDER SOME UPPER
RIDGING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER THE BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AROUND
60F EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST, AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ONTARIO
REGION. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM AND RAP INTO TONIGHT W/A NICE
BREAK IN THE PRECIP UP THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE CAN BE
SEEN WELL ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY W/ITS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS ALL HINGES ON CLOUDS
ARRIVE SOONER AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING
EARLY ON. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STEADIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND DOWNEAST.
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY A WET DAY W/RAIN AS LOW PRES SLIDES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION GET UNDER A SW FLOW FROM THE SFC
THROUGH 700MBS. THE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND
W/THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES W/SREF MUCAPES OF
300 J/KG. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT K INDEX OF 30 AND TOTAL TOTALS
OF 55+. LIS DROP TO NEAR 0. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTION AND DECIDED TO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO BE STABLE ENOUGH KEPT THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS TO A MINIMUM IF NONE
AT ALL. HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. SOME
DEFORMATION BANDING PRECIP POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LOW.
TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.30 TO
0.75". THIS ADDITIONAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE RIVER BASINS AND CAUSE
THE STAGES TO RISE SOME BUT NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE LOW AS CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALOFT. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL BLEND
THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. SKY COVER FROM THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM HE SUPPER BLEND.
HAVE USED THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CREST THEN CREST OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL USE HE SUPPER BLEND TO POPULATE
ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB SUNDAY MORNING AND THE IFR EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
FOR KBGR AND KBHB AND EVEN VFR AS THIS REGION GETS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE LOW AS SW FLOW SETS UP.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SSW
SWELL ATTM ON THE WATERS W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FT. EXPECT THIS
SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A 30KT LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS UP A BIT W/GUST TO 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE SREF AND
GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES:
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM OUT TO 0000Z TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SEVERAL LOWS CROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR A WIDE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT EXCLUDES THE CROWN OF MAINE AND DOWN EAST COASTAL AREAS.
USING RAP CAPE VALUES...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CAPE ABOVE -20C TO
JUSTIFY INCLUSION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE
SHARP AND SHOULD GENERATE STRONG LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
SHALLOW FOG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MADE TWEAKS TO FORECAST FOR THE FOG THAT WILL BE
RETREATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE
PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH DOWN EAST WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND HAS BROUGHT
THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS WITH FOG BURNING OFF EARLY
THIS MORNING AND GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF
PERHAPS 200 J/KG AND LOW CLOUD TOPS. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT ADDED
MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH -20C
BEING SO LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BANGOR
TO CALAIS. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AS 12Z SAT WILL TRACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z MON. AS THE LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE
REGION SAT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. WET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS SATURDAY AND WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. THE QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD OF AN INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE MARITIMES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE CERTAINLY
NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IN FOG WILL MOVE OUT THIS MORNING...LEAVING BHB
LAST BY MID-MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR CONDITIONS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF VFR OR AT LEAST HIGH END MVFR SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO IFR IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MOSTLY
MVFR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND MVFR/VFR AT AT
THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TODAY.
SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW
MAY CAUSE THE SEAS TO BUILD TO AOA 5FT SUNDAY AND A SCA IS
POSSIBLE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS AND WLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE APRIL 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE REFER TO PWMCLMCAR OR CXUS51 KCAR.
THE SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...WHILE WESTERN MINNESOTA WAS DRYING OUT
UNDER PARTY CLOUDY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY MOVED IN TO ONLY ALLOW A SHORT TEASE OF BLUE
SKIES BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE LOW THAT HAD STALLED
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK...AND THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS PRODUCED BY A DECENT PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ESE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE STRATOCU DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CLAP OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WESTERN
WISCONSIN IS THE BEST BET TO FIND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CLEARING TREND IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE
EAST AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRATOCU DECK SLIDES EAST WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA /LATER IN
WISCONSIN/. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN CANADA WILL ROTATE ANOTHER PV
ANOMALY TOWARD OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW...WHICH WILL
SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS BACK IN TO MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...FROM NORTH OF ST. CLOUD...THROUGH
THE MILLE LACS LAKE AREA...AND TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS WISCONSIN. OUR
AREA IS SIMPLY SOUTH OF THE BEST LIFT...AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
ONLY HAMPER THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
A NORTH AMERICAN PROJECTION OF THE WATER VAPOR AND GFS 500MB
HEIGHTS IDENTIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH TWO
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE EASTERN MOST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SET
UP AND CORRESPONDING H850-700MB FGEN. GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER SINCE THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL CAPE...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...GULF
MOISTURE...AND WARMER AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE CHALLENGE IS TRYING TO TIME THE PRECIP IN
THE 12HR GRIDS. AS OF NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS DEPENDS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 02.12 ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS
FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GEM IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN LOCATION...ONLY LAGGING ABOUT 6HRS BEHIND. FOR
NOW WILL JUST GENERALIZE THE WEATHER TYPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
IF THINGS COME TOGETHER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FORE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CENTERED AROUND THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
A FEW ISSUES TODAY...THE WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE FA NOW AND
THE WIND SPEEDS BEHIND IT...AND THE STRATO CU DEVELPOMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CU RULE VERY NEGATIVE TODAY...AND RAP SHOWING
SOLID 850 MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THE ISSUE
THOUGH IS THE HEIGHT OF THESE CLOUDS...AS THEY LOOK TO STRADDLE
THE DIFFERNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO MAY STAY VFR ALL AFTERNOON AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND IN
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DECENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...AROUND 20-25KTS. STRONGER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE 30+ KTS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CLAP OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
KMSP...ANY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF AS CEILING HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LIFT. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING WESTERLY AND
INCREASING. KEPT -SHRA IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. NW WINDS 15G22 KTS.
SUN...VFR. NW WINDS 5 KTS BECOMING NE.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. E WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
DEEP LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER SINCE SATURDAY IS
STARTING TO FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS A SFC RIDGE
AXIS HAS WORKED IN FROM THE WEST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEHIND
THIS RIDGE AXIS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
SW WINDS. THE BAD NEWS...SAID CLEARING IS QUICKLY BEING GOBBLED UP
BY INCREASING MID/UPPER CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE THAT WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING NW MN THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THIS IS NOT THE ONLY WAVE THAT WILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM...AS ANOTHER...MORE POTENT
WAVE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL HELP SEND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ANS SHOWER CHANCE TOWARD CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT.
THE WAVE NEAR WINNIPEG HAS A GOOD REFLECTION ON WV/IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT IS BATTLING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NW QUEBEC. THIS HAS
MEANT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME RATHER HEALTHY SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON...AS SEEN WITH THE MPXWRF AND HOPWRF MEMBERS. ALSO
ADDED IN AN ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER AGITATED RETURNS DEVELOPING IN THEIR
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
THUNDER...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO EXIST TO GENERATE A FEW
CLAPS OF THUNDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LOOKS TO KEEP
AREAS WEST OF THE MISS DRY.
BESIDE THE PRECIP...WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FIRST WAVE WILL SEND H85
TEMPS UP TO AROUND +4 IN SW MN. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SW OF A MORRIS TO
ALBERT LEA LINE TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK. HOWEVER...THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...
WITH GUSTS AOA 30 MPH LIKELY OUT IN THE WIND FAVORED AREAS OF
WRN/SRN MN.
THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT BEHIND
THIS FIRST WAVE...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN THE QUICK RETURN OF CLOUD COVER. THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE
ONE FOR TODAY...SO EXPECTING EVEN LESS PRECIP WITH IT. STILL...HI-
RES CAMS ALONG WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SHOW THE NEXT
POTENTIAL BOUT OF SHOWERS WORKING INTO CENTRAL MN BY 12Z SAT...SO
HAVE A LITTLE CHANCE OF 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS RATHER BENIGN AS NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING UPR
LVL RIDGE WHILE SFC HIGH PRES IS THE DOMINANT SFC FEATURE. AN UPR
LVL RIDGE THAT WAS QUASI-STNRY OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WARMER
HIGHS OF 50S TO LWR 60S IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT PRIOR MODEL
RUNS HAD SHOWN...DUE TO THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...OR MORE TO THE POINT... THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID DRY TIME THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES NUDGING INTO THIS REGION FROM WRN CANADA
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NWD...LEAVING A TRANSITION ZONE IN PLACE
BETWEEN LOW PRES TO THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. SEVERAL WEAK
UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LVL RIDGE
WITHIN FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCTD
SHWRS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE AREA...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
OF WHICH DRIVING SWWD FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG OVER SWRN AND
SRN MN. HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS FEATURE IN THE CHC CATEGORY DUE TO
THE SPEED OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
BETTER RE-ASSERT ITSELF MON NIGHT OVER THE GRT LKS...XTNDG WWD
INTO MN...THUS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SHOW A DRY FCST FOR MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE DURG THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF
DRIVING SWD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE WRN NOAM COAST MOVES
ONSHORE THE CALI COAST SAT-TUE. AS IT MOVES OVER THE SWRN STATES
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...IT WILL PICK UP A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER
OVER THE FAVORED CO/KS CYCLOGENESIS REGION AND SLOWLY SHIFT IT ENE
TUE NIGHT THRU THU. WHAT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM IS THE
TRACK AND SPEED OF ITS PROGRESSION. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THESE ASPECTS...WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE
TSTM...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WX...DISTRIBUTION FOR THE CENTRAL
STATES BY MIDWEEK. ATTM...MORE CONFIDENCE IS BEING SHOWN IN
KEEPING THE LOW PRES TRACK S OF MN/WI...OVER MORE OF A KS-NE-IA-IL
TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WHILE GREATER
INSTABILITY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER DYNAMIC FEATURES
WOULD BE S OF THIS REGION. THUS...TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
THE SRN TRACK DOES GIVE RISE TO ADDITIONAL HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SO...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RAISE POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WED INTO THU SINCE CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT THERE WILL BE
SHWRS/TSTMS BUT IT BECOMES A MATTER OF DETERMINING THE STORM
STRENGTH WHICH WILL COME AS MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRES TRACK. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY NUDGED UP TEMPS IN THE TUE-THU
PERIOD...ESP OVER SRN MN WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGHS
HITTING THE LWR 70S WED-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
A FEW ISSUES TODAY...THE WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE FA NOW AND
THE WIND SPEEDS BEHIND IT...AND THE STRATO CU DEVELPOMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CU RULE VERY NEGATIVE TODAY...AND RAP SHOWING
SOLID 850 MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THE ISSUE
THOUGH IS THE HEIGHT OF THESE CLOUDS...AS THEY LOOK TO STRADDLE
THE DIFFERNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO MAY STAY VFR ALL AFTERNOON AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND IN
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DECENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...AROUND 20-25KTS. STRONGER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE 30+ KTS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CLAP OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
KMSP...ANY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF AS CEILING HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LIFT. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING WESTERLY AND
INCREASING. KEPT -SHRA IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...THEN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALSO TUESDAY.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 100M+ HT FALLS. A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MONTANA TOWARD ARIZONA. CLOSED H5 LOW
PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER MANITOBA WITH IT/S TROF STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS MID
LEVEL TROF HAS RESULTED IN A PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO SOUTH OF
MANHATTAN KS TOWARD EMPORIA AND SOUTH OF HAYS KS. THERE WAS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WAS
NOTED AT THE MID LEVELS AND ALSO AT H85 ACROSS WESTERN SD AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FROM SD INTO NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE THESE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK.
WARMER AIR WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING H85 WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE H85 WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES AS WELL NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDERS. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ECHOES ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND 4KM WRF HAVE PRECIP
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...THE NAM BETWEEN 06Z-
09...AND THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE ONLY MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A BRISK EAST SURFACE FLOW. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DUE TO
THE FRONT NEARBY. THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED...THUS HAVE LEFT DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AGAIN...THERE
MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND A WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
DRY...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES WED.
TRENDED WITH THE EC THAT HAS THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST ARE COMPARED TO THE COOLER GFS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
REGION...A SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVING
TO THE PLAINS. NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...HOWEVER FRONTAL PLACEMENT FOR THURSDAY
WILL BE A KEY FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ENERGY MAY LAG AND MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW FRI/SAT ARE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
AT 08Z...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WINDS WERE LIGHT WESTERLY AT
5 MPH OR LESS. BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH THE COLDEST READING OF 27 AT LBF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN EXISTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALONG
THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
WEST TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR TODAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
TOO MUCH CONTRAST IN HIGHS HOWEVER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AT
VTN...ANW AND ONL TO 76 AT IML. NW WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
MPH TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
REGARDING CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE TRIMMED
WEST THE AREA TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE SIMILAR
TARGETING THESE AREAS. A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEEPER H7
TO H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C.KM WILL BE PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE
AND SW NEBR THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AROUND SUNSET. WITH A MILDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING IN
THE WEST WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EAST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...HEADING
FOR THE PACIFIC NW STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH EAST. MEANWHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP. AS THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST...HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. NAM HAS BEEN THE FASTEST WITH THE HEIGHT INCREASES...WHICH
HAS TRANSLATED TO MET GUIDANCE IN SW NEB INTO THE 80S. THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS/EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS HELD MOST SITES ACROSS SW
IN THE 70S. THE SW PART OF NEB DID SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
WITH THIS LATE APRIL EVENT...HOWEVER THE MONTH ENDED 1 TO 2 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT THE RELATIVELY DRY SOILS TO AID IN WARMING
CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ALTHOUGH LATELY THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WAY TO GO DURING THESE ABOVE NORMAL
DAYS...SO MAY NEED TO TREND THIS WARMER YET. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH
WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE HIGH IS
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...COOLER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF NRN NEB. HIGHS ON
SAT ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH. WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK
HEAT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE...DEW PTS IN THE 40S...MAY BE TOO DRY
FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. A BETTER CHANCE...ALBEIT ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER...WILL BE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COOLER NORTHERN HIGH AND WARMER SW SAT EVENING. AGAIN
MOISTURE IS A CONCERN AND RETAINED LOW POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AND SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST...BUT BECOMES MORE
BROAD. HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 80S ACROSS SW WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH...NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SUNDAY
EVENING THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY WITH
THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BY MONDAY THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST WITH SW NEB DROPPING
TO AROUND 80. MORE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WARM ABOVE SUNDAY READINGS...CLOSER TO 70.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE THURSDAY A MORE ACTIVE PATTER IS SETTING UP.
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO THEN EJECT THE LOW
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF BREAKS UP THE LOW WITH A PIECE
PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF DOES OPEN UP...HOWEVER
THIS IS SHORT LIVED WITH A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND
KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS
COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD WHICH WILL EFFECT THE QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITH CIGS AOA 5 KFT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
643 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
AT 08Z...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WINDS WERE LIGHT WESTERLY AT
5 MPH OR LESS. BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH THE COLDEST READING OF 27 AT LBF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN EXISTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALONG
THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
WEST TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR TODAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
TOO MUCH CONTRAST IN HIGHS HOWEVER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AT
VTN...ANW AND ONL TO 76 AT IML. NW WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
MPH TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
REGARDING CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE TRIMMED
WEST THE AREA TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE SIMILAR
TARGETING THESE AREAS. A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEEPER H7
TO H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C.KM WILL BE PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE
AND SW NEBR THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AROUND SUNSET. WITH A MILDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING IN
THE WEST WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EAST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...HEADING
FOR THE PACIFIC NW STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH EAST. MEANWHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP. AS THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST...HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. NAM HAS BEEN THE FASTEST WITH THE HEIGHT INCREASES...WHICH
HAS TRANSLATED TO MET GUIDANCE IN SW NEB INTO THE 80S. THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS/EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS HELD MOST SITES ACROSS SW
IN THE 70S. THE SW PART OF NEB DID SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
WITH THIS LATE APRIL EVENT...HOWEVER THE MONTH ENDED 1 TO 2 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT THE RELATIVELY DRY SOILS TO AID IN WARMING
CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ALTHOUGH LATELY THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WAY TO GO DURING THESE ABOVE NORMAL
DAYS...SO MAY NEED TO TREND THIS WARMER YET. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH
WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE HIGH IS
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...COOLER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF NRN NEB. HIGHS ON
SAT ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH. WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK
HEAT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE...DEW PTS IN THE 40S...MAY BE TOO DRY
FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. A BETTER CHANCE...ALBEIT ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER...WILL BE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COOLER NORTHERN HIGH AND WARMER SW SAT EVENING. AGAIN
MOISTURE IS A CONCERN AND RETAINED LOW POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AND SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST...BUT BECOMES MORE
BROAD. HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 80S ACROSS SW WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH...NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SUNDAY
EVENING THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY WITH
THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BY MONDAY THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST WITH SW NEB DROPPING
TO AROUND 80. MORE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WARM ABOVE SUNDAY READINGS...CLOSER TO 70.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE THURSDAY A MORE ACTIVE PATTER IS SETTING UP.
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO THEN EJECT THE LOW
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF BREAKS UP THE LOW WITH A PIECE
PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF DOES OPEN UP...HOWEVER
THIS IS SHORT LIVED WITH A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND
KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS
COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD WHICH WILL EFFECT THE QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FRONT COMMING ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF EITHER
OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS OF 8000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY.
WIND WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY 16Z AND BECOME
290-320 AT 13G20KT BUT WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
AT 08Z...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WINDS WERE LIGHT WESTERLY AT
5 MPH OR LESS. BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH THE COLDEST READING OF 27 AT LBF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN EXISTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALONG
THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
WEST TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR TODAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
TOO MUCH CONTRAST IN HIGHS HOWEVER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AT
VTN...ANW AND ONL TO 76 AT IML. NW WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
MPH TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
REGARDING CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE TRIMMED
WEST THE AREA TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ARE SIMILAR
TARGETING THESE AREAS. A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEEPER H7
TO H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C.KM WILL BE PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE
AND SW NEBR THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INTRODUCE A MENTION.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AROUND SUNSET. WITH A MILDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING IN
THE WEST WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EAST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...HEADING
FOR THE PACIFIC NW STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH EAST. MEANWHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP. AS THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST...HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. NAM HAS BEEN THE FASTEST WITH THE HEIGHT INCREASES...WHICH
HAS TRANSLATED TO MET GUIDANCE IN SW NEB INTO THE 80S. THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS/EC MOS GUIDANCE HAS HELD MOST SITES ACROSS SW
IN THE 70S. THE SW PART OF NEB DID SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
WITH THIS LATE APRIL EVENT...HOWEVER THE MONTH ENDED 1 TO 2 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT THE RELATIVELY DRY SOILS TO AID IN WARMING
CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ALTHOUGH LATELY THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WAY TO GO DURING THESE ABOVE NORMAL
DAYS...SO MAY NEED TO TREND THIS WARMER YET. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH
WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE HIGH IS
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...COOLER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF NRN NEB. HIGHS ON
SAT ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH. WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK
HEAT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE...DEW PTS IN THE 40S...MAY BE TOO DRY
FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. A BETTER CHANCE...ALBEIT ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER...WILL BE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COOLER NORTHERN HIGH AND WARMER SW SAT EVENING. AGAIN
MOISTURE IS A CONCERN AND RETAINED LOW POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AND SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST...BUT BECOMES MORE
BROAD. HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE 80S ACROSS SW WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH...NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. SUNDAY
EVENING THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND FORECAST AREA LOOKS DRY WITH
THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BY MONDAY THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST WITH SW NEB DROPPING
TO AROUND 80. MORE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WARM ABOVE SUNDAY READINGS...CLOSER TO 70.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE THURSDAY A MORE ACTIVE PATTER IS SETTING UP.
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO THEN EJECT THE LOW
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF BREAKS UP THE LOW WITH A PIECE
PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF DOES OPEN UP...HOWEVER
THIS IS SHORT LIVED WITH A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND
KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS
COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD WHICH WILL EFFECT THE QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A FRONT COMING ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF EITHER OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS LESS THAN
20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...CEILINGS OF 5000-8000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY.
WIND WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY 16Z AND BECOME
280-310 AT 12-16G17-22KT BUT WILL BECOME VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING
AT LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1058 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL USHER IN
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
THIS CONTINUES TO DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES. WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING THESE SHOWERS HAVE LOST THEIR
EARLIER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF
WNY WITH BOTH SPC SSEO AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS WNY BEFORE 06Z. COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE TUG HILL HOWEVER WILL KEEP LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE PRESENT BAND. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING LAKE ERIE WHICH
COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
TIER. A LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING OVERCAST SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW 40 EXCEPT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER.
ON SUNDAY THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWING QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...ALLOWING A NOTABLE AREA
OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF SHOWERS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY PER 03/12Z SPC SSEO ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON THE LAKE PLAINS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT BEST...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE NOTABLY...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH BECOMING COMMON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME 40 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ALONG AND
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION
FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WEEKEND SHOWERS WILL NOW BE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.
A COOL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY
LINGER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLEARING...AND DIMINISHING
WINDS DO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT FROST CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
WNY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH A LINGERING COOL
AIRMASS OVERHEAD OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 50S. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS
AND MORE CERTAINTY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT FROST WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS ZONES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEGUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AN OPEN WAVE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
FOR WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD HAVE A NEAR NORMAL DAY IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT WITH MORNING SUNSHINE STARTING TO FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT...ONE THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT
WITH ACTIVITY REACHING WNY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT...SUCH THAT SOME SUNSHINE WILL BREAK OUT FROM THE CLOUDS
FROM THE STATE LINE TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. IF THIS SUNSHINE IS REALIZED A WARM AFTERNOON IS
IN STORE...ALONG WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY.
EVENTUALLY THIS WARM FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL WITH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY.
A WEAKLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WARM
AIRMASS FRIDAY. ALONG THIS FRONT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL FORM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM ON
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS
EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO BE EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
AS CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT ON FRIDAY...WHICH EVEN
THOUGH 850S HPA TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...THE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SOLAR HEATING AND LEAVE FRIDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS LATE THIS EVENING WHICH CONTINUES TO KICK UP SCT SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SUPPORTING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. VFR CIGS/VIS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT FOR KBUF/KROC/KIAG WITH JUST TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA. FOR KART AND KJHW EXPECT BETTER CHANCES OF
MVFR LEVEL CIGS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON SUNDAY A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WNY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A FEW OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF MVFR
VSBY. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR ACROSS WNY...WITH MVFR MOST LIKELY AT
KART EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT AS A
SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AND BRING SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. ON LAKE ERIE...SOMEWHAT LESSER WINDS
WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVES AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TIMES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO
TRUE FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS DUE TO
COMBINED EFFECTS FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND DPVA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT GO AWAY ALTOGETHER WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
VERY LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SOME WEAK LAKE SHADOWS MAY
TRY TO FORM NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...BUT WITH THE
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER THE LAKE SHADOWS MAY NOT BECOME OVERLY
APPARENT.
SPEAKING OF CLOUD COVER...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LITTLE HOPE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO
WATERTOWN...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS MAY DEVELOP TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LIMITED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND WEALTH
OF CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT WILL THEN FEATURE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE NEXT ROBUST SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING AIM ON OUR REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD REACH PARTS OF OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. MINS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE THE SAME OLD STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
WITH THE RESULTANT LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW SENDING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FIRST SUCH
IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SECOND
AND STRONGER FEATURE WORKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO DIURNAL WARMING OF OUR
COOL AIRMASS...THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THESE PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE...AND
WHEN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. WITH ALL OF THIS
IN MIND...HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER ON IN THE WEEKEND...A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY WELL UNFOLD LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...THOUGH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON EXACTLY WHICH
AREAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...THE
NORTH COUNTRY APPEARS TO BE THE AREA MOST PRONE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD ALSO
SEE A LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY.
AFTER THAT...EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY WELL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THANKS TO LINGERING TROUGHING ALOFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A GENERALLY DRY DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LINGERING TROUGHING ALOFT...AND
THE RESULTANT PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT AS A NEW LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN OUR TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY...THEN CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES HELPS PUMP
EVEN WARMER AIR NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PERSISTENT SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
DRAPED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTACT ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT IN OUR
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE BRINGING A RENEWED RISK FOR SOME
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SRN TIER. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CIGS FOR THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE NEXT
FEATURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE ONLY A MODESTLY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DIURNAL
MIXING TO TRANSPORT SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE LK SFC. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER LAKE ERIE...WHERE
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER SCA FOR THE NEW YORK NEARSHORES OF LK ERIE ONLY...AS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS IN BUF HARBOR. AS FOR LK ONTARIO...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD NOT GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVES SO NO
FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT GIVEN THE DIURNAL UNCOUPLING
FROM WINDS ABV 1500 FT.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A RELATIVELY
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL FRESHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH...WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MOSAIC RADAR BEAMS ARE CATCHING WIDESPREAD
ECHOS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OBSERVED HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS PAINT A DRIER PICTURE THAN IS PRESENTED GRAPHICALLY BY
THE SUITE OF LOCAL 88 DELTAS. OF INTEREST IS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
MOVING FROM THE NE GULF INTO GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
MAY AID IN STIRRING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS...THROUGH MIDDLE INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN AREA OFFSHORE OF N FL
AND SC APPEARS ON A TRACK THAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
COMPOSITE/CONSENSUS PCPN FIELDS PULL ALL RAIN OFFSHORE BY 11PM
EXCEPT FOR THE RAP-13...WHICH IS BIT UNSETTLING SINCE BY THEORY
A RAPID UPDATE NEAR-TERM MODEL INGESTS THE LATEST AND GREATEST.
THE RAP GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG THE
COAST...APPARENTLY KEYING ON THE POTENT APPEARING VORT CAREENING
INTO WESTERN TN AND WESTERN MS. THIS FEATURE IN FACT DOES IMPART
A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A MINOR AND SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE COAST
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. MINIMUMS INTO THE 50S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
BUT COOLEST INLAND...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION AFTER 8-9 ZULU/4-5 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST SAT AM WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE. AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY. MINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
THE SOUTH AND THE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER NORTHERN ZONES. SOME VERY LOW
POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED AS A RESULT. AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
IN A WEAKENING STATE AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND HIGHEST SFC
PRESSURES OFF THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE.
WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EVEN IN AREAS OF PRECIP. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VRB AROUND 5 KTS AFTER
18Z AS A VERY WEAK GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
MID LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR WEST. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT
KILM/KCRE/KMYR AFTER 06Z...BUT SREF OUTPUT INDICATES THE SUB-VFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES EAST AND USHERS
IN SOME DRIER AIR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CHANGEABLE BUT NOT STRONG
AS A SECONDARY BUT WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE COAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY JUST PRIOR TO OR AROUND DAYBREAK. SEAS MAINLY 2-3
FEET IN A MIX OF 2-3 FT SSE WAVES EVERY 6-8 SECONDS AND A LIGHT
CHOP. LIGHT S-SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...FOLLOWED BY A WIND-
SHIFT TO THE NW INTO FIRST LIGHT OF SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE INSHORE WATERS...BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY LIGHT UP THE GULF STREAM INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOLIDLY SW
SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY NORTHERN WATERS LATE
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO IF
NOT ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BOTH BE RATHER MINIMAL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG HOWEVER AND THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME
POSSIBLE ERROR IN WIND FCST OVER MAINLY NRN ZONES. SRN ZONES SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND THUS KEEP A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERN FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE 4 MAY 00
UTC NAM MAY HAVE BEST INITIALIZED THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE ARE
ALSO STILL SOME SHOWERS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BEING FLATTENED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES ARE HARD TO
DISCERN OVER MONTANA...A STRONGER IMPULSE CAN BE SEEN MOVING
ACROSS OREGON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TRACKING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING TOWARD
THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT...LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE STILL INDICATING THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE MOVES INTO THE WEST SUNDAY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...DID GIVE THE NAM SOME CREDIT
AND EXTENDED POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THIS BROUGHT SOME CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH FROM AROUND WATFORD
CITY TO THE BISMARCK AREA...BUT STILL LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW. HOPEFULLY WHEN THE 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS
COME IN THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
CLIPPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DIMINISHING STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ELSEWHERE. UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 22 UTC RAP MESOSCALE OUTPUT. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASED CLOUDS NORTH WEST AND CENTRAL. BROUGHT SOME HIGHER POPS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING BUT BACKED THIS DOWN A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED RAP GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE A FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BAND...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND WHICH FAVORS WPC
AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW IN SOME AREAS...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT KDIK. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS IN THE HEART OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BUT
STILL KEPT AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY EXPECT THOSE ON
GRASSY TYPE SURFACES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SINCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE TRICKY.
THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALREADY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER. DECIDED TO PULL
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS KEEPING THE MUCAPE AXIS WEST AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT SHOW ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BUT THAT CHANGES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A CONTINUATION
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT...THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ROCKIES TROUGH EVENTUALLY BEGINS MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY IMPULSES
FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE STATE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PROVIDE GOOD INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTED TO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAIN WITH THE INSTABILITY AND ENERGY IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS VERY ACTIVE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY - SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF MODELS - RANGE FROM
0.5 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE 2
INCHES - ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH
BASINS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN...AND THE SEVERITY OF THE
IMPACTS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
A BAND OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE KDIK LOOKS TO BE THE
AERODROME MOST LIKELY AFFECTED BY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN AND SNOW...WITH KISN AND POSSIBLY RECEIVING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO DICKINSON AROUND 08 UTC
AND CONTINUE THEN CONTINUE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KISN WILL BRING A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
DURING SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW VFR CEILINGS AT
BISMARCK WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
CLIPPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DIMINISHING STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ELSEWHERE. UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 22 UTC RAP MESOSCALE OUTPUT. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASED CLOUDS NORTH WEST AND CENTRAL. BROUGHT SOME HIGHER POPS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING BUT BACKED THIS DOWN A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED RAP GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE A FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BAND...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND WHICH FAVORS WPC
AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW IN SOME AREAS...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT KDIK. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS IN THE HEART OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BUT
STILL KEPT AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY EXPECT THOSE ON
GRASSY TYPE SURFACES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SINCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE TRICKY.
THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALREADY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER. DECIDED TO PULL
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS KEEPING THE MUCAPE AXIS WEST AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT SHOW ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BUT THAT CHANGES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A CONTINUATION
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT...THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ROCKIES TROUGH EVENTUALLY BEGINS MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY IMPULSES
FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE STATE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PROVIDE GOOD INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTED TO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAIN WITH THE INSTABILITY AND ENERGY IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS VERY ACTIVE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY - SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF MODELS - RANGE FROM
0.5 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE 2
INCHES - ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH
BASINS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN...AND THE SEVERITY OF THE
IMPACTS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
A BAND OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE KDIK LOOKS TO BE THE
AERODROME MOST LIKELY AFFECTED BY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN AND SNOW...WITH KISN AND POSSIBLY RECEIVING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO DICKINSON AROUND 08 UTC
AND CONTINUE THEN CONTINUE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KISN WILL BRING A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
DURING SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW VFR CEILINGS AT
BISMARCK WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
403 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COOL FRONT HAD STALLED FROM CENTRAL
MT INTO WESTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST IA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND IT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT/ND SUPPORTING BAND
OF POST FRONTAL -SHRA FROM EASTERN MT INTO CENTRAL SD...BUT HAVING
A BIT OF TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN DRIER AIR OVER THE
CWA. ACTIVITY MAY YET EXPAND PER LOCAL WRF/18Z RAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RUSHES PAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE AS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH OF CWA BRINGING JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A FEW -SHRA/DIURNALLY DRIVEN -TSRA GIVEN WEAK MLCAPE.
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE AND BEST WAVE MOVES ACROSS ND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/TIGHT ISOTHERMS...SO
TRENDED COOLISH IN THE NORTH AND WARMISH IN THE SOUTH/WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
WEST TO SWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL START THE WEEK WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA. FOR THE MID-WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW TROF IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES WITH STRONGER SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...BRINGING GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 401 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO NW SD AND THE BLKHLS AREA. ISOLD -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY PRECIP. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COOL FRONT HAD STALLED FROM CENTRAL
MT INTO WESTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST IA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND IT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT/ND SUPPORTING BAND
OF POST FRONTAL -SHRA FROM EASTERN MT INTO CENTRAL SD...BUT HAVING
A BIT OF TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN DRIER AIR OVER THE
CWA. ACTIVITY MAY YET EXPAND PER LOCAL WRF/18Z RAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RUSHES PAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE AS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH OF CWA BRINGING JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A FEW -SHRA/DIURNALLY DRIVEN -TSRA GIVEN WEAK MLCAPE.
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE AND BEST WAVE MOVES ACROSS ND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/TIGHT ISOTHERMS...SO
TRENDED COOLISH IN THE NORTH AND WARMISH IN THE SOUTH/WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
WEST TO SWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL START THE WEEK WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA. FOR THE MID-WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW TROF IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES WITH STRONGER SWRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...BRINGING GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO NW SD AND THE BLKHLS AREA. ISOLD -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR ANY PRECIP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COOL FRONT FROM KBWP TO KCUT TO
KBIL...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON WATER
VAPOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AB/SK...SLINKING SOUTHEAST ON 90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP HAD POST FRONTAL SHRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PER 12Z KUNR SOUNDING
AND SATURATED MID-LEVEL 12Z KGGW SOUNDING. 12Z RAP SHOWED CURRENT
ACTIVITY WELL...AND IT SPREADS SHRA ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SCATTERED POPS TO MATCH. WHERE BETTER DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD...HAVE KEPT TS MENTION GIVEN
250J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IN NW FLOW...ADVECTING SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH NOW
ENTERING NW SD /08Z/. THIS SFC TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
TODAY...WITH IMPULSE LADED NW FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHRA
ACROSS THE REGION. LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAVER N-S ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ADVECT QUICKLY SE THROUGH THE FLOW. DEGREE
OF CAA UNDER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN HEIGHT ANOMALY LOOKS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED...SUPPORTING A
SOUTH BIAS TO THE SFC COLD FRONT IN THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW HALF...ESP SAT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE FA...BEHIND THE
LEAD IMPULSE. SECONDARY IMPULSE ON THE HEALS OF HE FIRST WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE WITH SHRA ACTIVITY
SPREADING SOUTH INTO NW SD. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY
CHANGEABLE PER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW...BACKING OFF SIG WITH THE
LATEST RUNS TO MORE REASONABLE VALUES GIVEN LIFT PROFILES. COOLER
TEMPS EXPECTED THERE GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WEAK CAA. FURTHER
SOUTH...DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE PASSING WEAK IMPULSE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS BY AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS GENERALLY
LOW /SAVE THE FAR NW/ AS THE MAIN LOBE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. RETAINED TS CHANCES OVER THE SW WHERE NEGATIVE LI/POS MU
CAPE/AND DECENT HEATING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED ACROSS THE NW.
SATURDAY...LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA IN THE PERIOD. RETAINED LOW
POPS...MAINLY NW AREAS FOR EXPECTED PASSING IMPULSES...OF WHICH
TIMING/STRENGTH REMAIN MUDDLED. ADJUSTED TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
NE/SW TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
GENERAL AREA OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
COOLER/WARMER TEMPS...WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE STRENGTH OF PASSING
IMPULSES AND THEIR REFLECTED N-S FRONTAL PERTURBATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
WEST TO SWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA. TOWARDS MID-WEEK DEEP TROF PUSHES TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES WITH STRONGER SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING GREATER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LCL MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PRECIP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
911 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COOL FRONT FROM KBWP TO KCUT TO
KBIL...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON WATER
VAPOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AB/SK...SLINKING SOUTHEAST ON 90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP HAD POST FRONTAL SHRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PER 12Z KUNR SOUNDING
AND SATURATED MID-LEVEL 12Z KGGW SOUNDING. 12Z RAP SHOWED CURRENT
ACTIVITY WELL...AND IT SPREADS SHRA ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SCATTERED POPS TO MATCH. WHERE BETTER DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD...HAVE KEPT TS MENTION GIVEN
250J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IN NW FLOW...ADVECTING SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH NOW
ENTERING NW SD /08Z/. THIS SFC TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
TODAY...WITH IMPULSE LADED NW FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHRA
ACROSS THE REGION. LL FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAVER N-S ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ADVECT QUICKLY SE THROUGH THE FLOW. DEGREE
OF CAA UNDER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN HEIGHT ANOMALY LOOKS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED...SUPPORTING A
SOUTH BIAS TO THE SFC COLD FRONT IN THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW HALF...ESP SAT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE FA...BEHIND THE
LEAD IMPULSE. SECONDARY IMPULSE ON THE HEALS OF HE FIRST WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE WITH SHRA ACTIVITY
SPREADING SOUTH INTO NW SD. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY
CHANGEABLE PER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW...BACKING OFF SIG WITH THE
LATEST RUNS TO MORE REASONABLE VALUES GIVEN LIFT PROFILES. COOLER
TEMPS EXPECTED THERE GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WEAK CAA. FURTHER
SOUTH...DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE PASSING WEAK IMPULSE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS BY AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS GENERALLY
LOW /SAVE THE FAR NW/ AS THE MAIN LOBE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. RETAINED TS CHANCES OVER THE SW WHERE NEGATIVE LI/POS MU
CAPE/AND DECENT HEATING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED ACROSS THE NW.
SATURDAY...LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA IN THE PERIOD. RETAINED LOW
POPS...MAINLY NW AREAS FOR EXPECTED PASSING IMPULSES...OF WHICH
TIMING/STRENGTH REMAIN MUDDLED. ADJUSTED TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
NE/SW TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
GENERAL AREA OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
COOLER/WARMER TEMPS...WHICH WILL HINGE ON THE STRENGTH OF PASSING
IMPULSES AND THEIR REFLECTED N-S FRONTAL PERTURBATION.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
WEST TO SWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA. TOWARDS MID-WEEK DEEP TROF PUSHES TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES WITH STRONGER SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING GREATER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2014
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PRECIP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES...SMALL
-SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 SAT AND MAINLY NORTHEAST IA LATE
SAT NIGHT.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN. STRONGEST 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3MB
WERE OVER CENTRAL MN WITH A SFC LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ALSO
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN. FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF -RA/-SHRA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WI AND
NORTHEAST IA WITH SPOTTY -SHRA ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN
BEHIND THE LEADING LINE. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN QUITE LIGHT.
SOME DECREASE OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE LEADING -RA/-SHRA LINE...WITH
MID-DAY TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO CENTRAL MN.
02.12Z MODEL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AS HGTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE BUT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WITH THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PASSING THIS
AFTERNOON. TREND FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE
EARLIER RUNS AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
HGTS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY START TO RISE. NO ONE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL FAVORITE AND WITH THE TIGHT CONSENSUS...FAVORED THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE THIS CYCLE. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SCT SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH/EXIT QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF THE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. WILL FINE TUNE -SHRA CHANCES
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AT MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND UNDER THE RISING HGTS ALOFT...WEAK CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
LATER THIS EVENING THRU SAT EVENING TRENDING DRY WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...STEEPER SFC- 700MB LAPSE RATES/WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE. SMALL
-SHRA CHANCE NORTHEAST OF I-94 SAT AFTERNOON REASONABLE FOR NOW.
HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE IN SAT NIGHT BUT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A
MDT/STRONG SURGE OF 700-500MB WARM ADVECTION/ ISENTROPIC LIFT/
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PW/S TO AROUND 0.75 INCH TO OVER- RUN THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH/COOL DOME LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WITH
SOME 700-500MB FN CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130KT 300MB JET MAX ACROSS WI. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE/CONSENSUS FOR THIS MOISTURE/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED
THE SMALL -RA/-SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AND A COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION WITH THE
WEAK CAN HIGH PRESSURE. EVEN COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE IN FOR SAT
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FOR SAT NIGHT LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
SOME FROST POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 SAT NIGHT BUT GIVEN
THE LATENESS OF THE SPRING SEASON...IT IS A BIT EARLY TO BE ISSUING
FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT. PLAN IS TO START THOSE FOR MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NEXT WEEK. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT...
CONSENSUS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S LOOK GOOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...-RA/-SHRA
CHANCES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MODELS IN DECENT AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY RISING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN THE SUN THRU MON NIGHT PERIOD.
LITTLE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS IN THIS PERIOD AS FAR AS TIMING
OF FEATURES...THUS FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN THRU MON NIGHT PERIOD
IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE SIGNAL FROM LATE SAT NIGHT TRANSLATES QUICKLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA SUN
MORNING. RATHER CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR THIS MAINLY
700-500MB LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT -RA/
-SHRA CHANCES REASONABLE FOR NOW. TRENDED -RA CHANCES QUICKLY DOWN
AND OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FAST EXIT OF THE FORCING. DRY SUN
EVENING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MID LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THRU THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALREADY
SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA LATER SUN NIGHT. PW VALUES WITH THIS
ROUND OF FORCING/LIFT...INCLUDING SOME 300MB JET MAX RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION DIVERGENCE...AGAIN IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE/AGREEMENT ON THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED THE
SMALL -RA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON.
DRY/QUIET MON NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...NO 850-500MB FORCING/LIFT SEEN AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC. 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA PROGGED TO REMAIN 0.5 TO 1
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL THRU THIS PERIOD. WITH PERIODIC
CLOUDS...SUN/MON HIGHS TO REMAIN ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE. WITH A
COOLER/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SUNDAY THEN LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF SUN NIGHT...MOST MON MORNING LOWS LOOKING TO
BE IN THE 30S. GENERALLY STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z AND 02.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT ON TUE...FOR STRONG TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES AND
RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. ECMWF/GFS
WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 30.12Z AND
01.12Z RUNS ON TUE. 02.00Z ECMWF APPEARED AS AN OUTLIER WED/THU
BUT ITS 02.12Z RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/CAN-GEM AND
PREVIOUS RUN CONSENSUS. SURPRISINGLY GOOD ECMWF/GFS AGREEMENT ON
FRI WITH BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL NOAM. DAY 4-7 FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE...THEN WITH SOME MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
HAVING IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WED AND BEYOND...FCST
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 5 THRU 7 IS AVERAGE.
TUE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY DAY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION....SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MAIN AXIS OF 850MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. WARMING 850MB TEMPS ON TUE SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 60S. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS QUICKLY PUSHED EAST TUE NIGHT...
WITH THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR WED-THU AS PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS EJECTING ENERGY
SENDS A RATHER STRONG COLORADO LEE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DIFFERENCES WHERE THE SFC LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS AND WARM SECTOR END UP BY WED NIGHT/
THU. THIS HAS IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WED-THU AS FAR AS
TEMPS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS
AND THE FRONTS END UP. GIVEN THE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY WED/THU...
FOLLOWED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD TRACK THE LOW
INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EARLY THU. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE
30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR TUE NIGHT THRU THU APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. LOWER/DECREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU NIGHT/FRI ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH
SHORTWAVES IN THE WHAT WOULD BE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR TUE-FRI LOOK WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BETWEEN KSAZ AND KJMR
WITH A FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. A FEW
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WITH VFR CEILINGS
AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. EXPECT THAT THESE WILL PASS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE QUESTION BECOMES IF MORE WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. BOTH THE 02.00Z HI-
RES ARW AND 02.12Z NAM SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
02.15Z RAP KEEPS THE INSTABILITY PRETTY LIMITED WITH MAYBE 150
J/KG OF MU CAPE SO WILL CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER
CHANCES UNLESS SOMETHING POPS UP. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE VFR
CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR KRST
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TRIBUTARIES AND THE MAIN CHANNEL. CURRENTLY ONLY THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS IN FLOOD...BUT FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR
AND GUTTENBERG DAM 10 TO BEGIN MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 4
DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER NEAR GALESVILLE WI IS NEAR ITS
CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
SAT. NO MAJOR RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SO RUNOFF
ALREADY IN THE RIVER CHANNELS WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTOR
TO RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND AN ELONGATED LONG
WAVE TROUGH FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES
NOW IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...PROMOTING
DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE LOW
STRATUS DECK CLEARING ACROSS MINNESOTA ON 11-3.9UM IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 00Z BIS AND ABR SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO QUITE DRY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.3-0.4 INCHES. REPLACING THE
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. GRAND
FORKS RADAR DISPLAYING SOME LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...BUT SO FAR THE
DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING OUT KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION AS VIRGA.
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AT 00Z WAS STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
925MB TEMPS AROUND 4C...BUT WARMER 9-13C READINGS WERE LURKING
UPSTREAM AT ABR AND BIS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SKIES CLEAR OUT AND SURFACE PRESSURES WERE RISING ABOUT 1
MB/HR...PROMOTING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MODELS FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TO WEAKEN SOME. THIS WEAKENING COMBINED WITH THE DRY
ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS IN SOME
CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT
DOESNT PRECIPITATE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN
GENERAL GIVEN WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING. BETWEEN DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY FROM HEATING...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT 2 METER
DEWPOINT GUIDANCE FROM THE BASE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM
AND REGIONAL CANADIAN ALL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH
EVEN THE GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN APPROACHING 50 BY 00Z. THIS SEEMS
A BIT HIGH GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE DAKOTAS. PERHAPS THE MODELS ARE THINKING GREEN-UP HAS
ALREADY TAKEN PLACE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WE DO HAVE WET SOILS SO
THAT COULD PROMOTE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IN SUMMARY...FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ON IF THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER CHANGE
WORTH NOTING IS THAT THE 02.00Z NAM MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DROPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW BELOW 200 J/KG...WHICH MAKES SENSE.
CONSIDERED DROPPING THE THUNDER MENTION ENTIRELY AS A RESULT...BUT
THE RAP DOES DEPICT A ZONE OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7
C/KM OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE
LEFT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 00-03Z WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EXITING AND DIURNAL COOLING.
AS WE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DROP
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN AND WI. THESE ARE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...
PROGGED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z
SATURDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO TAYLOR
COUNTY TOWARDS 12Z...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
925MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...BETWEEN
6-8C FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE CAN SNEAK IN A
LITTLE SUN AND WITH A WARM ADVECTING SOUTHWEST WIND...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THERES EVEN A CHANCE SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH
60...SUCH AS CHARLES CITY...WINONA...LA CROSSE AND BOSCOBEL. THIS
ALL HINGES IF WE CAN GET MORE SUN...BUT THINK OVERALL WE WILL BE
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT ON A NORTHWEST
WIND...WHICH COULD BE BRISK IN THE EVENING WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
THE PRESSURE RISE COMING THROUGH...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALL IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SUGGESTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
MEANS A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST OFF...SATURDAY. THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI...ALONG WITH UPPER MI AND ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BEST DPVA
FORCING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...THINK MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE. THE 02.00Z GFS PRINTS
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER LA CROSSE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...
MOSTLY A RESULT OF THE MODEL DEVELOPING SOME WEAK CAPE. BELIEVE THE
MODEL IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND OVERLY MOIST. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP ANY
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-94...CONSISTENT TOO WITH THE
02.00Z ECMWF. 925MB TEMPS REBOUND DECENTLY ON SATURDAY...6-9C...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE TODAY.
NEXT UP IS ON SUNDAY WHERE THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE BAND ALSO HAS
SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM A JET STREAK FOLLOWING THE
SATURDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT ON LOCATION
OF THE BAND...TRACKING IT FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO LA CROSSE AND THE
DELLS...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
IA AND NORTHERN IL AS THE MORE LIKELY TRACK. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND FROM THE OTHER MODELS...HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 12-18Z SUNDAY IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT...WHICH IF THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIER
MIGHT CAUSE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT
QPF PROGGED BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WITH THIS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
GOING THROUGH AND A NORTHEAST BREEZE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
TAKE A COOL DOWN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE UNDER THE PRECIPITATION.
RAIN CHANCES COME BACK FOR MONDAY WHEN YET ANOTHER BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS. THIS ONE LOOKS
WEAKER THAN ON SUNDAY...THUS 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF QPF IS
LIGHTER AND MORE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS 20
PERCENT CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE. COOLED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND AN EAST WIND AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE IN UPPER MI. THESE COULD NEED FURTHER COOLING IF A LITTLE
MORE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE 02.00Z ECMWF.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...THAT IS WHEN SOME BIGGER TEMPERATURE CHANGES TAKE
PLACE...ALONG WITH INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER. 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND 00Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS COULD CLIMB AS MUCH AS 10-15C
RESULTING IN AN ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS COMING INTO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PANS
OUT. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE FOLLOWED CONSENSUS WITH 30-50 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BETWEEN
KSAZ AND KJMR WITH A FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WITH
VFR CEILINGS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. EXPECT THAT THESE WILL
PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE QUESTION BECOMES IF MORE
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. BOTH
THE 02.00Z HI-RES ARW AND 02.12Z NAM SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE VCSH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE 02.15Z RAP KEEPS THE INSTABILITY PRETTY LIMITED
WITH MAYBE 150 J/KG OF MU CAPE SO WILL CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER CHANCES UNLESS SOMETHING POPS UP. ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE VFR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
KRST BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TRIBUTARIES AND THE MAIN CHANNEL. CURRENTLY ONLY THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS IN FLOOD...BUT FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR
AND GUTTENBERG DAM 10 TO BEGIN MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 4.5
DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE IS APPROACHING
FLOOD STAGE...BUT SHOULD NOT CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MINOR FLOOD WITH
FALLING RIVER LEVELS AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. NO MAJOR RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SO RUNOFF WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND AN ELONGATED LONG
WAVE TROUGH FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES
NOW IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...PROMOTING
DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE LOW
STRATUS DECK CLEARING ACROSS MINNESOTA ON 11-3.9UM IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 00Z BIS AND ABR SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO QUITE DRY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.3-0.4 INCHES. REPLACING THE
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. GRAND
FORKS RADAR DISPLAYING SOME LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...BUT SO FAR THE
DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING OUT KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION AS VIRGA.
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AT 00Z WAS STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
925MB TEMPS AROUND 4C...BUT WARMER 9-13C READINGS WERE LURKING
UPSTREAM AT ABR AND BIS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SKIES CLEAR OUT AND SURFACE PRESSURES WERE RISING ABOUT 1
MB/HR...PROMOTING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MODELS FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TO WEAKEN SOME. THIS WEAKENING COMBINED WITH THE DRY
ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS IN SOME
CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT
DOESNT PRECIPITATE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN
GENERAL GIVEN WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING. BETWEEN DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY FROM HEATING...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT 2 METER
DEWPOINT GUIDANCE FROM THE BASE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM
AND REGIONAL CANADIAN ALL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH
EVEN THE GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN APPROACHING 50 BY 00Z. THIS SEEMS
A BIT HIGH GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE DAKOTAS. PERHAPS THE MODELS ARE THINKING GREEN-UP HAS
ALREADY TAKEN PLACE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WE DO HAVE WET SOILS SO
THAT COULD PROMOTE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IN SUMMARY...FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ON IF THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER CHANGE
WORTH NOTING IS THAT THE 02.00Z NAM MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DROPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW BELOW 200 J/KG...WHICH MAKES SENSE.
CONSIDERED DROPPING THE THUNDER MENTION ENTIRELY AS A RESULT...BUT
THE RAP DOES DEPICT A ZONE OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7
C/KM OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE
LEFT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 00-03Z WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EXITING AND DIURNAL COOLING.
AS WE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DROP
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN AND WI. THESE ARE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...
PROGGED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z
SATURDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO TAYLOR
COUNTY TOWARDS 12Z...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
925MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...BETWEEN
6-8C FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE CAN SNEAK IN A
LITTLE SUN AND WITH A WARM ADVECTING SOUTHWEST WIND...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THERES EVEN A CHANCE SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH
60...SUCH AS CHARLES CITY...WINONA...LA CROSSE AND BOSCOBEL. THIS
ALL HINGES IF WE CAN GET MORE SUN...BUT THINK OVERALL WE WILL BE
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT ON A NORTHWEST
WIND...WHICH COULD BE BRISK IN THE EVENING WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
THE PRESSURE RISE COMING THROUGH...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALL IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SUGGESTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
MEANS A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST OFF...SATURDAY. THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI...ALONG WITH UPPER MI AND ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BEST DPVA
FORCING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...THINK MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE. THE 02.00Z GFS PRINTS
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER LA CROSSE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...
MOSTLY A RESULT OF THE MODEL DEVELOPING SOME WEAK CAPE. BELIEVE THE
MODEL IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND OVERLY MOIST. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP ANY
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-94...CONSISTENT TOO WITH THE
02.00Z ECMWF. 925MB TEMPS REBOUND DECENTLY ON SATURDAY...6-9C...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE TODAY.
NEXT UP IS ON SUNDAY WHERE THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE BAND ALSO HAS
SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM A JET STREAK FOLLOWING THE
SATURDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT ON LOCATION
OF THE BAND...TRACKING IT FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO LA CROSSE AND THE
DELLS...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
IA AND NORTHERN IL AS THE MORE LIKELY TRACK. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND FROM THE OTHER MODELS...HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 12-18Z SUNDAY IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT...WHICH IF THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIER
MIGHT CAUSE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT
QPF PROGGED BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WITH THIS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
GOING THROUGH AND A NORTHEAST BREEZE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
TAKE A COOL DOWN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE UNDER THE PRECIPITATION.
RAIN CHANCES COME BACK FOR MONDAY WHEN YET ANOTHER BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS. THIS ONE LOOKS
WEAKER THAN ON SUNDAY...THUS 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF QPF IS
LIGHTER AND MORE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS 20
PERCENT CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE. COOLED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND AN EAST WIND AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE IN UPPER MI. THESE COULD NEED FURTHER COOLING IF A LITTLE
MORE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE 02.00Z ECMWF.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...THAT IS WHEN SOME BIGGER TEMPERATURE CHANGES TAKE
PLACE...ALONG WITH INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER. 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND 00Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS COULD CLIMB AS MUCH AS 10-15C
RESULTING IN AN ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS COMING INTO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PANS
OUT. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE FOLLOWED CONSENSUS WITH 30-50 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
THE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BECOME VFR BETWEEN
02.13Z AND 02.15Z....AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 02.18Z AND 03.02Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. THIS WILL OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 03.02Z AND
KLSE AROUND 03.03Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TRIBUTARIES AND THE MAIN CHANNEL. CURRENTLY ONLY THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS IN FLOOD...BUT FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR
AND GUTTENBERG DAM 10 TO BEGIN MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 4.5
DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE IS APPROACHING
FLOOD STAGE...BUT SHOULD NOT CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MINOR FLOOD WITH
FALLING RIVER LEVELS AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. NO MAJOR RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SO RUNOFF WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND AN ELONGATED LONG
WAVE TROUGH FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES
NOW IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...PROMOTING
DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE LOW
STRATUS DECK CLEARING ACROSS MINNESOTA ON 11-3.9UM IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 00Z BIS AND ABR SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO QUITE DRY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.3-0.4 INCHES. REPLACING THE
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. GRAND
FORKS RADAR DISPLAYING SOME LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...BUT SO FAR THE
DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING OUT KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION AS VIRGA.
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AT 00Z WAS STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
925MB TEMPS AROUND 4C...BUT WARMER 9-13C READINGS WERE LURKING
UPSTREAM AT ABR AND BIS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SKIES CLEAR OUT AND SURFACE PRESSURES WERE RISING ABOUT 1
MB/HR...PROMOTING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MODELS FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TO WEAKEN SOME. THIS WEAKENING COMBINED WITH THE DRY
ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS IN SOME
CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT
DOESNT PRECIPITATE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN
GENERAL GIVEN WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING. BETWEEN DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY FROM HEATING...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT 2 METER
DEWPOINT GUIDANCE FROM THE BASE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM
AND REGIONAL CANADIAN ALL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH
EVEN THE GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN APPROACHING 50 BY 00Z. THIS SEEMS
A BIT HIGH GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE DAKOTAS. PERHAPS THE MODELS ARE THINKING GREEN-UP HAS
ALREADY TAKEN PLACE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WE DO HAVE WET SOILS SO
THAT COULD PROMOTE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IN SUMMARY...FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ON IF THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER CHANGE
WORTH NOTING IS THAT THE 02.00Z NAM MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DROPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW BELOW 200 J/KG...WHICH MAKES SENSE.
CONSIDERED DROPPING THE THUNDER MENTION ENTIRELY AS A RESULT...BUT
THE RAP DOES DEPICT A ZONE OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7
C/KM OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE
LEFT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 00-03Z WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EXITING AND DIURNAL COOLING.
AS WE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DROP
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN AND WI. THESE ARE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...
PROGGED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z
SATURDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO TAYLOR
COUNTY TOWARDS 12Z...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
925MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...BETWEEN
6-8C FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE CAN SNEAK IN A
LITTLE SUN AND WITH A WARM ADVECTING SOUTHWEST WIND...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THERES EVEN A CHANCE SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH
60...SUCH AS CHARLES CITY...WINONA...LA CROSSE AND BOSCOBEL. THIS
ALL HINGES IF WE CAN GET MORE SUN...BUT THINK OVERALL WE WILL BE
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT ON A NORTHWEST
WIND...WHICH COULD BE BRISK IN THE EVENING WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
THE PRESSURE RISE COMING THROUGH...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALL IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SUGGESTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
MEANS A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST OFF...SATURDAY. THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI...ALONG WITH UPPER MI AND ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BEST DPVA
FORCING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...THINK MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE. THE 02.00Z GFS PRINTS
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER LA CROSSE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...
MOSTLY A RESULT OF THE MODEL DEVELOPING SOME WEAK CAPE. BELIEVE THE
MODEL IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND OVERLY MOIST. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP ANY
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-94...CONSISTENT TOO WITH THE
02.00Z ECMWF. 925MB TEMPS REBOUND DECENTLY ON SATURDAY...6-9C...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE TODAY.
NEXT UP IS ON SUNDAY WHERE THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE BAND ALSO HAS
SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM A JET STREAK FOLLOWING THE
SATURDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT ON LOCATION
OF THE BAND...TRACKING IT FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO LA CROSSE AND THE
DELLS...WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
IA AND NORTHERN IL AS THE MORE LIKELY TRACK. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND FROM THE OTHER MODELS...HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 12-18Z SUNDAY IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT...WHICH IF THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIER
MIGHT CAUSE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT
QPF PROGGED BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WITH THIS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
GOING THROUGH AND A NORTHEAST BREEZE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
TAKE A COOL DOWN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE UNDER THE PRECIPITATION.
RAIN CHANCES COME BACK FOR MONDAY WHEN YET ANOTHER BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS. THIS ONE LOOKS
WEAKER THAN ON SUNDAY...THUS 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF QPF IS
LIGHTER AND MORE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONSENSUS 20
PERCENT CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE. COOLED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND AN EAST WIND AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE IN UPPER MI. THESE COULD NEED FURTHER COOLING IF A LITTLE
MORE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE 02.00Z ECMWF.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...THAT IS WHEN SOME BIGGER TEMPERATURE CHANGES TAKE
PLACE...ALONG WITH INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER. 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND 00Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS COULD CLIMB AS MUCH AS 10-15C
RESULTING IN AN ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS COMING INTO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PANS
OUT. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE FOLLOWED CONSENSUS WITH 30-50 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
THE MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN WORKING STEADILY EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THESE MVFR CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED
EAST OF KRST AND WILL DO THE SAME AT KLSE BY 09Z OR 10Z. EXPECT
THAT THE CEILINGS WILL POP UP TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET OR SO FOR
A SHORT PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
ALREADY QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE 02.00Z NAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES...WHICH IS SHOWN BY
THE DIMINISHING PV ADVECTION SIGNAL IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED THAT THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300
MB JET WOULD ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE NAM HAS
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS HOLDING THE JET BACK UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES OUT OF CANADA FOR SATURDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
OVER WISCONSIN WITH NOT MUCH OF SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH
JUST A WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL OFF THE THE HIGH PLAINS AND
NOT FROM THE GULF REGION. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS LESS CAPE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND ONLY AROUND
200 J/KG OF MU CAPE. HAVE STAYED WITH THE IDEA OF JUST SHOWING
SOME VICINITY SHOWERS FOR BOTH TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTING THE BETTER COVERAGE TO BE TO THE EAST. WITH THE LIMITED
CAPE...DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER EITHER. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD END LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TRIBUTARIES AND THE MAIN CHANNEL. CURRENTLY ONLY THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS IN FLOOD...BUT FORECASTS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINONA...LA CROSSE...MCGREGOR
AND GUTTENBERG DAM 10 TO BEGIN MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 4.5
DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE IS APPROACHING
FLOOD STAGE...BUT SHOULD NOT CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MINOR FLOOD WITH
FALLING RIVER LEVELS AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. NO MAJOR RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SO RUNOFF WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
SOME MID CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TOWARD 12Z WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KMCW AND KALO. STILL EXPECT MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF KFOD. WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
BASED ON RADAR AND OBS I HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS ACROSS
W/SW PORTIONS OF CWA INTO EARLY EVE FOR BAND OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WITH CONSIDERABLE T/TD
SPREADS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WAS PROVIDING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY. FOR
THE MOST PART THE REGION WAS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW
BAND OF RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.
THE RAIN WAS COMING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK WITH A DEEP AND DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER WHICH WAS CAUSING MOST OF THE RAIN TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THE RAIN AND MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING IN A
REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A 120KT H3 JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO
WEAKENS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH BASED RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN
ACROSS THE DVN CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THE HRRR HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY TO FAR NORTHEAST WITH
THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO THE RAIN SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH FGEN
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WHICH THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING WITH TIME.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THINKING
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. H3 JET MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. MID/LOW LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN THAT SHOULD
IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
KEPT ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT SOUTH...A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE
MIDDLE 50S NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WELCOMED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AND ON PCPN
CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCE TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE THE NORM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA DRAPED OVER
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A 40KT LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND
PROGGED 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON SPEED OF WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH. CWA TO BE COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER
70S/MIDDLE 80S AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO
FEEL HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLJ TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF JET ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA. LATEST MODELS TRACK THESE STORMS EAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY NEAR
THE CWA. NONETHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THIS BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAKER FORCING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. LATEST
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOME
WITH IT NOT ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS SLOWER FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES WITH FORECAST HIGHS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
DURING THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE JET AXIS/STRONG SHEAR
PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR THIS IN ITS DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THIS TIME FRAME BY LATER SHIFTS.
REST OF EXTENDED...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS DEW
POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHEAST AND EAST ON SUNDAY AT
AROUND 10 KTS TO 15 KTS. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES
AND A FEW HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE
RIPPLES DOWN ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 70S ARE OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM WHERE THE WINDS STAY UP.
SOME LOCATIONS ON BOTH SIDES WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS SO COULD SEE
SOME LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO DROP.
AS TODAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF WHERE THE FRONT IS
DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST WITH FRONT AND IS THE
COOLEST. OF THE MODELS THAT GO OUT LONG ENOUGH...THE NAM IS CLOSER
TO THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING WELL RIGHT NOW. MOST OF THE
OUTPUT HOW MORE OF THE FORECAST ON THE WARM SIDE...AND WILL BE
GOING THAT DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHEAST CORNER LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO REFER
TO THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR TOMORROWS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LONGWAVE
TROUGH.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY WITH COOLING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERING. MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY SHOULD POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FOG BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS.
FUEL STATUS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH GREEN-UP ONGOING ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DUE TO DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. THE DRYLINE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST DURING PERIODS OF BEST
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY SO BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BUT DO NOT THINK A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS LIKELY AT
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPORADIC SO NOT EVERYBODY WILL
RECEIVE A NEEDED RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA SEPARATES A HOT DRY AIR MASS
TO THE WEST AND A WARM SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO THE EAST.
KMCK WILL LIE NEAR OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN 10
PERCENT...OF FOG FORMING AROUND SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KMCK TAF ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LIKE TODAY...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEFINITELY REACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON FUEL STATUS AND ON THE WINDS. WHAT DATA CAN BE
FOUND WOULD INDICATE THAT WE ARE IN GREEN-UP BUT THAT MAY BE MOSTLY
FOR GROWING CROPS. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY
AND REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT
WIND SPEEDS. IF THE STRONGER NAM WINDS WORK OUT...THEN SOME
LOCATION IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA COULD REACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
ISSUE A WATCH WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT NEEDING TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MAY
4. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY.
GOODLAND.....91 IN 2012
MCCOOK.......94 IN 2012
BURLINGTON...92 IN 1963
HILL CITY....93 IN 2012
COLBY........92 IN 1924
TRIBUNE......94 IN 1952
YUMA.........89 IN 1962
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
SPAWNED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD THIS
MORNING. THE RAP SHOWS THIS FORCING MECHANISM MOVING QUICKLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THE RAP AND NAM GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS PINE RIDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS DRY AS NEITHER
MODEL IS GENERATING AND QPF IN THAT AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY SUPPORTING THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT THE NAM AND ECM ONLY SHOW 85 PERCENT RH
IN THE 500M AGL LEVEL VS THE GFS AROUND 98 PERCENT. THE BEST
APPROACH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL DATA. A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON TIME ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FROM A LOW IN S CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW IN KANSAS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL MIX MID AND UPPER TEENS 850 MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LL JET TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT SOME BUILDING SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND HAVE CONCERNS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT DEVELOP
THIS FAR SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE. MILD LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INITIATE ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW...SO POPS CONFINED TO THE
NW ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW STRENGTHEN OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS NEB. TIMING STILL OFF A LITTLE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GEM HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT INTO SW AND S CENTRAL NEB. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THE EC DRAWS DOWN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
FAR NW NEB...COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY A MIX. CURRENT THOUGH IS
THE TEMPS TO NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH INTO THE MID 30S FOR ANY MIX AT
THIS POINT AND NO MENTION OF SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S ON WED AND 50S AND 60S
FOR THURS.
BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS EAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND AND A WARM UP IS EXPECTED. AFTER 60S
ON FRIDAY...MORE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. A LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONAL TO NW WEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE PACIFIC AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. EAST WIND IN THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FOG/MIST IN THE WEST SOUTH AND WEST OF IEN. WIND IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE 070-100 AT 10-14KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...THEN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALSO TUESDAY.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 100M+ HT FALLS. A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MONTANA TOWARD ARIZONA. CLOSED H5 LOW
PRESSURE WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER MANITOBA WITH IT/S TROF STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS MID
LEVEL TROF HAS RESULTED IN A PUSH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO SOUTH OF
MANHATTAN KS TOWARD EMPORIA AND SOUTH OF HAYS KS. THERE WAS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WAS
NOTED AT THE MID LEVELS AND ALSO AT H85 ACROSS WESTERN SD AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FROM SD INTO NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE THESE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK.
WARMER AIR WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING H85 WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE H85 WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES AS WELL NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDERS. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ECHOES ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND 4KM WRF HAVE PRECIP
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...THE NAM BETWEEN 06Z-
09...AND THE GFS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...HAVE ONLY MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A BRISK EAST SURFACE FLOW. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DUE TO
THE FRONT NEARBY. THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED...THUS HAVE LEFT DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AGAIN...THERE
MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND A WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
DRY...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES WED.
TRENDED WITH THE EC THAT HAS THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST ARE COMPARED TO THE COOLER GFS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
REGION...A SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVING
TO THE PLAINS. NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE...HOWEVER FRONTAL PLACEMENT FOR THURSDAY
WILL BE A KEY FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ENERGY MAY LAG AND MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW FRI/SAT ARE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY CEILINGS
ABOVE 9000 FEET. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10 KNOTS MID TO
LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
109 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT EARLY MAY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 2500-10000
FOOT LAYER IS BEING PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS LAYER IS BONE-DRY AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH (AND BEYOND) DAYBREAK. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL HAVE 3-6 MPH
WINDS THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS: STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST HAVE GUSTED OVER 20 MPH AT OCEAN CREST
PIER AND ON BALD HEAD ISLAND WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MARINE
EFFECT SHOULD WANE GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ALSO...WINDS HAVE BECOME DEAD CALM AT
THE LBT AIRPORT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT 1
AM. UNLESS WINDS "RECOUPLE" HERE WE COULD SEE UPPER 40S BY MORNING!
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CONTINUES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY MONDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE 1200 UTC GFS IS A
LITTLE DRIER WITH ANY ACTIVITY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT I WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THIS IS
LIKELY WAIVER BACK AND FORTH. THIS LEAVES ESSENTIALLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RATHER WARM ONE AT THAT. WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW PREVAILING FROM ABOUT 850MB AND ABOVE THE WARMER NAM/MET
NUMBERS SHOULD WORK BETTER. THIS LEADS TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
SUNDAY AND EVEN WARMER MONDAY...POSSIBLY ECLIPSING 90 EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODIFY FROM AROUND 60 MONDAY
MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...TOUGH CALL ON WHERE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH MAIN IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET QUITE WARM WHILE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TO ITS NORTH BOTH AS A FUNCTION OF A
LITTLE CAA AND SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS COVER. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
TO REMAIN CONFINED NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT WHICH WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY TAKE A DIP BACK TO SEASONABLE AREA-
WIDE ON WED AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS...BUT IT BOTH WEAKENS AND LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO BRING A LATE
WEEK RETURN OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COASTLINE TO KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
TO OUR WEST PRECLUDING ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSION...BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG ISSUES
THROUGH DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AS NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS
EARLY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE
INCREASING CIRRUS AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
AND STALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS WEEK...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ALONG WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST JET OF STRONGER WINDS IS
SHOWING UP ON MULTIPLE MESONET AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. WIND GUSTS AT BOTH OCEAN CREST PIER AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND HAVE APPROACHED 20 KNOTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS JET OF STRONGER WINDS
QUITE WELL...AND THE 00Z HRRR MODEL WAS USED TO REDRAW WIND
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 10 HOURS.
BASED ON LOCAL BUOY WAVE OBSERVATIONS I HAVE INCREASED NEAR-TERM SEA
HEIGHT FORECASTS BY HALF A FOOT EAST OF CAPE FEAR...WITH LESSER
CHANGES BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER DEFINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING. FINALLY...WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL MOSTLY HOVER IN A NARROW RANGE OF 2-3 FEET WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND WIND SHIFT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND MAY VERY WELL END UP BISECTING THE FORECAST ZONES
NORTH TO SOUTH. A N TO NE WIND WILL OVERSPREAD ANY REGIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FROPA WHILE SRN ZONES LIKELY KEEP A LIGHT SWRLY FLOW.
WIND AND SEAS BOTH MINIMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
NO REAL SWELL COMPONENT. THE FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES SHOULD SEE THE POST
FRONTAL NRLY WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN SPEED OF
JUST A FEW KT. WAVE FACES MAY STEEPEN SLIGHTLY BUT PREDOMINANT PD
PROBABLY DOESN`T CHANGE. WEAKENING FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LIGHT SWLY
FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO LOW VFR AT KBIS BY 17Z...WHILE KDIK/KISN WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND -RA AT KMOT/KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS INITIATING AS NARROW
INTENSIFYING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SLOPE AND
HETTINGER COUNTIES. BEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT IS A
BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS...AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR/RAP MODELS MISSING
CURRENT PRECIPITATION AREA. INCREASED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
WHERE PRECIPITATION BANDING HAS DEVELOPED. WILL MONITOR FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
FORM OF PRECIPITATION BUT WITH DYNAMIC COOLING BECOMING
DOMINATE...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE 4 MAY 00
UTC NAM MAY HAVE BEST INITIALIZED THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE ARE
ALSO STILL SOME SHOWERS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BEING FLATTENED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES ARE HARD TO
DISCERN OVER MONTANA...A STRONGER IMPULSE CAN BE SEEN MOVING
ACROSS OREGON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TRACKING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING TOWARD
THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT...LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE STILL INDICATING THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE MOVES INTO THE WEST SUNDAY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...DID GIVE THE NAM SOME CREDIT
AND EXTENDED POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THIS BROUGHT SOME CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH FROM AROUND WATFORD
CITY TO THE BISMARCK AREA...BUT STILL LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW. HOPEFULLY WHEN THE 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS
COME IN THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
CLIPPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DIMINISHING STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ELSEWHERE. UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 22 UTC RAP MESOSCALE OUTPUT. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASED CLOUDS NORTH WEST AND CENTRAL. BROUGHT SOME HIGHER POPS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING BUT BACKED THIS DOWN A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED RAP GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE A FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BAND...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND WHICH FAVORS WPC
AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW IN SOME AREAS...AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT KDIK. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS JUST
SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS IN THE HEART OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BUT
STILL KEPT AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY EXPECT THOSE ON
GRASSY TYPE SURFACES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SINCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE TRICKY.
THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALREADY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER. DECIDED TO PULL
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS KEEPING THE MUCAPE AXIS WEST AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT SHOW ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BUT THAT CHANGES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE A CONTINUATION
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT...THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE ROCKIES TROUGH EVENTUALLY BEGINS MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY IMPULSES
FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE STATE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PROVIDE GOOD INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTED TO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
REMAIN WITH THE INSTABILITY AND ENERGY IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS VERY ACTIVE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY - SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF MODELS - RANGE FROM
0.5 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE 2
INCHES - ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH
BASINS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN...AND THE SEVERITY OF THE
IMPACTS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO LOW VFR AT KBIS BY 17Z...WHILE KDIK/KISN WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. KJMS WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND
-RA AT KMOT/KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET THAT IS
STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS TOUGH. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR NW PA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH
SHOULD THE CHANCE BE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...SO
TRIED TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS TO NE OH. THE HRRR MODEL HAS SOME
SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS WENT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR CUT. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THEY GET AND THE
IMPACT ON FROST AND FREEZE. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS DON`T COME
IN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
IF THIN CLOUDS COME IN THEY MAY LIMIT THE PROBLEM TO SOME FROST.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EVEN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
A WARM TREND STARTING MID WEEK. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN...THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD AND A CAP IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE NEAR
850MB SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS PARTLY SUNNY...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED
IF WE REALLY END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL
FRIDAY SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN A FEW OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR
50 PERCENT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND IF IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR SO IN SOME OF THE
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES AT CAK/YNG. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN
14-16Z ON SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE SE
OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS ERI...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS
YNG...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT HOLDING IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 FEET FOR
A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS MAY END UP BEING MARGINAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL HAVE A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND
STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER TO FINISH
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE COULD AFFECT MBG...ABR AND ATY AND STAY NORTH OF PIR. DONT
EXPECT ANY BIG REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. THE WINDS COULD GET A
LITTLE BREEZY ON SUNDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
508 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY. SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW VA COULD
KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB
AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
13-14Z/9-10AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE VICINITY
OF THE FORECAST REGION. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
THURSDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WX AND WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND
WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM LAST WEEK SO FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
THE 04.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT HAS SHIFTED THIS WAVE FARTHER
NORTH THAN WHAT THE 03.18Z RUN INDICATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
WOULD SUGGEST THE WAVE IS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WHICH IS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST. THE NAM ALSO
TRENDED MUCH WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT DEVELOPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TO THE POINT THAT ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE WAVE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE 04.00Z GFS HAS COME IN WITH A VERY SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT
SHOWED WITH ITS 03.18Z RUN AND ALSO WOULD SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
WOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THEY COME IN. COULD SEE THESE AS JUST
ENOUGH TO WET THE PAVEMENT WET OR SOME SPRINKLES SO HAVE LEFT IN
THE VCSH AT BOTH SITES. CEILINGS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
EVENING LOOK TO BE VFR WITH A MID LEVEL DECK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
1114 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. FIRST REGARDING CLOUD
COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. FOR TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED
HIGHS UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
PARTS OF SE CT BASED ON CURRENT 850MB TEMP AND A MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW. DEWPOINTS NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT MIXES DOWN...NOTING FALLING DEWPOINTS AT 850MB AS WELL.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL BE GOOD
AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL LIFT. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND CAPE WILL BE
VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AT A
TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME SPOTS (MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT)...WILL
KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST. THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. CU ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
CT...AND IT APPEARS A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS BY ABOUT 18Z...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF TEMPO
MVFR CONDS...BUT IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KT IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS NOW LOOK LOWER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
THERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
W FLOW GUSTING AT OR JUST OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BACK NW THIS EVENING AFTER COLD
FROPA...REMAINING LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REMAINING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. NW WINDS G25KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN ANY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KT EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. FIRST REGARDING CLOUD
COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. FOR TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED
HIGHS UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
PARTS OF SE CT BASED ON CURRENT 850MB TEMP AND A MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW. DEWPOINTS NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT MIXES DOWN...NOTING FALLING DEWPOINTS AT 850MB AS WELL.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL BE GOOD
AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL LIFT. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND CAPE WILL BE
VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AT A
TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME SPOTS (MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT)...WILL
KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST. THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN ANY SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION DOWN
TO MVFR. TEMPO GROUP PLACED DURING TIMEFRAME OF HIGHEST
CHANCE...GENERALLY 18-22Z WHICH COULD BE A FEW HRS OFF. THE
COVERAGE OF SHRA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. TSRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE ANY TSRA
WOULD FORM...BUT ANY TSRA FORMING COULD ALSO BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS HIGHER THAN FCST.
A WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN ANY TSRA. WINDS
ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REMAINING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT LOWERING MON AFTN-MON EVE.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...MOSTLY VFR. CHC -RA/MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KTS EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE 30 KTS RIGHT AT THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE DACKS AS UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RAPID INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION REMAINING ACROSS THE DACKS.
LATEST IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHICH WAS ADVANCING
INTO THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...AN ELONGATED AND DOUBLE BARREL UPPER LOWS WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUNSHINE QUICKLY BEING FILLED IN WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS INCREASING. LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES
MODEL OUTPUTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THIS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW.
AS FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER...WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND INCREASING SHOWALTER VALUES...SEEMS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H500 TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S/ AND THAT MAY SUN ANGLE...CHANCE STILL EXISTS WITHIN DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FOR SOME GRAUPAL/SMALL- HAIL AS WE WILL RETAIN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WIND MAGNITUDES ON THE
INCREASE. PER FORECAST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS...WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE PUSHING UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS. PER
COORDINATION...WE WILL WITHHOLD ANY HEADLINES AND MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...A COOL AND DAMP DAY IS SETTING UP WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE DACKS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT...AS THE
THERMAL PROFILES COOL WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING BACK AT OR BELOW
0C...COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAYS
WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. OUR NORMAL HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE TERRAIN AND MID 60S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LOW IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
DEPART OUR REGION DURING MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER...BUT IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A VARIABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. AS SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS ON
MONDAY...THE H850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER CLOSE TO 0C. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH 50S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE...MOISTURE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE SPRING DAY FOR THE REGION WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND A NEAR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PASSING OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME UPPER
20S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE GROWING SEASON HAVING
ALREADY STARTED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ON MONDAY...FROST OR FREEZE
HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND 850 HPA
TEMPS RISING TO AS HIGH AS 6 DEGREES C...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...WED NIGHT MINS WON/T BE AS COOL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OVER THE REGION.
ALONG WITH RISING 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL START TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP BY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP OVER THE AREA
BEFORE THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA
TEMPS OF 10-11 DEGREES C BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/ AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS...ESP IF
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR. MAX TEMPS FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR THURS
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
MID 60S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THURS/FRI NIGHTS AS WELL. AT THIS
POINT...WE EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TO LIMIT THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF WARMING...BUT IF THE REGION WERE TO TRULY WARM
SECTOR...IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY TODAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT...THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT OF A SHOWER DURING THE DAY...ESP FOR KGFL. ALTHOUGH
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SCT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT BY LATER THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY
RAIN SHOWER...AND A TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT
KGFL...WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...VCSH WILL BE
MENTIONED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER NEARBY.
IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GOOD MIXING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KTS
BY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW GUTS AS HIGH AS
30 KTS AT KALB.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNSET...WITH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND BKN-CIGS REMAINING AROUND 5 KFT. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
EARLY THIS WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH BASIN AVERAGE OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ARRIVES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
813 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SHOWER/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR HANCOCK/WORTH/CERRO GORDO COUNTIES. RECENT REPORT OF MIXTURE
IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHRA TO AFFECT NORTHERN SITES...KMCW/KALO AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAY...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHRA TO AFFECT NORTHERN SITES...KMCW/KALO AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAY...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
SPAWNED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD THIS
MORNING. THE RAP SHOWS THIS FORCING MECHANISM MOVING QUICKLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THE RAP AND NAM GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS PINE RIDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS DRY AS NEITHER
MODEL IS GENERATING AND QPF IN THAT AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY SUPPORTING THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT THE NAM AND ECM ONLY SHOW 85 PERCENT RH
IN THE 500M AGL LEVEL VS THE GFS AROUND 98 PERCENT. THE BEST
APPROACH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL DATA. A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON TIME ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FROM A LOW IN S CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW IN KANSAS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL MIX MID AND UPPER TEENS 850 MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LL JET TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT SOME BUILDING SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND HAVE CONCERNS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT DEVELOP
THIS FAR SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE. MILD LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INITIATE ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW...SO POPS CONFINED TO THE
NW ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW STRENGTHEN OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS NEB. TIMING STILL OFF A LITTLE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GEM HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT INTO SW AND S CENTRAL NEB. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THE EC DRAWS DOWN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
FAR NW NEB...COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY A MIX. CURRENT THOUGH IS
THE TEMPS TO NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH INTO THE MID 30S FOR ANY MIX AT
THIS POINT AND NO MENTION OF SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S ON WED AND 50S AND 60S
FOR THURS.
BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS EAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND AND A WARM UP IS EXPECTED. AFTER 60S
ON FRIDAY...MORE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. A LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONAL TO NW WEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE PACIFIC AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS TONIGHT BUT THIS HAS BEEN SET
ASIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO REASONABLY
SOLID AGREEMENT A FORECAST CAN BE MADE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RUC AND NAM FOCUSING ON A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. WILL USE NAM
GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AND THEN NAM GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z.
SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY ENDING BY MID MORNING MONDAY. CURRENT
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MINIMAL GROUND TRUTH...MAINLY MID LEVEL DECK. THE NAM HAS DRIED THAT
OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS THESE INITIAL (WEAK)
ECHOES DRIFT EAST...AND WILL SPEED THINGS UP AS NECESSARY WITH 18Z
UPDATE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MOVING INTO SW MN ATTM. OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO ERN ND SO UPPED SKY COVER SOME FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM DICKINSON ND AREA TO SOUTH OF BISMARCK TO
ABERDEEN SD MOVING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. FARTHER SOUTH ACTUALLY A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD EAST OF PIERRE TOWARD HURON. THIS
FORCING WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR
NE 1/2 OF FCST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF CANDO-GRAND FORKS-PARK
RAPIDS LINE. EXPECT GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA.
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ND TODAY AND THRU ERN
ND/NW MN TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BUT SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND WITH SHOWERS ON
RADARS TO OUR WEST WENT ALONG WITH WFO BIS AND INCREASED POPS IN
NE ND INTO THE CNTRL RRV TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANY PRECIP EXIT THE MN FCST AREA EARLY...BUT
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP IN FAR WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF NEXT LARGER SYSTEM. THEN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DAYTIME TUESDAY AS 850-700
MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE 500 MB TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONSISTENCY THIS PERIOD CONTINUES WITH
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS AS IT RELATES TO THE LARGE SCALE. QUESTIONS
ABOUND REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA MAY BLOCK THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REDUCING OVERALL QPF. ECMWF AND NAM12/DGEX SUGGEST
SAID CONVECTION BRUSHING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH AND WEST WITH INSTABILITY AFT 00Z THU.
GEM-NH...ECMWF AND DGEX FARTHER SOUTHEAST SUGGEST TSRA RISK FOR OUR
AREA IS PRETTY LOW. BEST TIMING WOULD BE IN THE 12Z WED - 06Z THU
AND SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGH APPROX FSD-DLH LINE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
850-500 DIV Q...700 FRONTOGEN AND COUPLED JET SUPPLYING THE LIFT FOR
-RASH/-RA OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. QUESTION AGAIN IS HOW MUCH PLAINS
CONVECTION INTERFERES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT QPF.
ON FRIDAY LOW WRAPS UP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TAKING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH IT. COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY YIELD TO SOME
-RASH LATE FRIDAY. THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
REGION. THUS UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WEATHER IS SUGGESTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP NR HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR. WINDS LIGHT
THIS MORNING TURNING MORE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS
AFTN-TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. AMOUNTS THAT LIGHT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT TO CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS.
FARGO IS THE ONLY FORECAST POINT CURRENT ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND IS FALLING...PROBABLY GOING BELOW MODERATE LEVELS LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT. HALSTAD...EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO ARE AT OR PAST THEIR
BROAD CRESTS AND SHOULD FALL VERY SLOWLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DOWNSTREAM AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH ARE JUST ABOVE FIS AND SLOW
RISES ARE INDICATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2...WHERE THE INCOMING 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE 06 UTC SUITE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND AFTERNOON WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
POPS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES FROM THE DICKINSON AREA...THROUGH MORTON COUNTY...INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF GRASSY AREAS SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THERE...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
WHICH INDICATES MORE QPF THIS MORNING. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO
THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARDS
MVFR/IFR AT KISN AND KMOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING IN
STRATUS AND RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
POPS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES FROM THE DICKINSON AREA...THROUGH MORTON COUNTY...INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF GRASSY AREAS SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THERE...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
WHICH INDICATES MORE QPF THIS MORNING. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO
THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN -SN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS KDIK AND
INTO KBIS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD
KISN AND KMOT WHERE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND OVER
EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KMOT WITH -SN IN THE MORNING MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO -RA BY THE AFTERNOON. KJMS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR
CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER. THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS IS AFFECT NE OH
AND NW PA AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AROUND NOON WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. NW OH WILL HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET
THAT IS STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS
TOUGH. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NW PA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH SHOULD THE CHANCE BE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN...SO TRIED TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS TO NE OH. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS WENT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR CUT. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THEY GET AND THE
IMPACT ON FROST AND FREEZE. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS DON`T COME
IN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
IF THIN CLOUDS COME IN THEY MAY LIMIT THE PROBLEM TO SOME FROST.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EVEN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
A WARM TREND STARTING MID WEEK. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN...THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD AND A CAP IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE NEAR
850MB SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS PARTLY SUNNY...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED
IF WE REALLY END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL
FRIDAY SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN A FEW OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR
50 PERCENT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND IF IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA
THROUGH 21Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNLESS
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROP IN ANY MORE MODERATE SHOWERS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
TO WEST BETWEEN 14-16Z...THEN NORTHWEST BY 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT HOLDING IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 FEET FOR
A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS MAY END UP BEING MARGINAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL HAVE A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND
STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER TO FINISH
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER. THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS IS AFFECT NE OH
AND NW PA AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AROUND NOON WILL MAINLY
AFFECT EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. NW OH WILL HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET
THAT IS STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS
TOUGH. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NW PA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH SHOULD THE CHANCE BE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN...SO TRIED TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS TO NE OH. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS WENT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR CUT. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THEY GET AND THE
IMPACT ON FROST AND FREEZE. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA. THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS DON`T COME
IN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
IF THIN CLOUDS COME IN THEY MAY LIMIT THE PROBLEM TO SOME FROST.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EVEN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF OMEGA.
A WARM TREND STARTING MID WEEK. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN...THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD AND A CAP IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE NEAR
850MB SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS PARTLY SUNNY...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED
IF WE REALLY END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL
FRIDAY SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN A FEW OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR
50 PERCENT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND IF IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR SO IN SOME OF THE
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES AT CAK/YNG. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN
14-16Z ON SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE SE
OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS ERI...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS
YNG...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BUT HOLDING IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5 FEET FOR
A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS MAY END UP BEING MARGINAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL HAVE A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND
STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER TO FINISH
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
954 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TIMBER LAKE TO
HAYTI...GIVEN EXPECTED DURATION OF CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING LOW
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. DID NUDGE THE SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST ZONES UP A FEW DEGREES AS THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATING THIS MORNING
TO SCALE BACK POPS AND WIND DOWN THE POPS/WX MENTION SOONER...AND
ELIMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON POPS/WX MENTION ALTOGETHER...AS IT
APPEARS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AND
PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THIS CWA LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE
OUT.
HYDROLOGY...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ONGOING UPSTREAM WATER
RELEASES...THE JAMES RIVER IS JUST ABOUT TO HIT FLOOD
STAGE...WHICH IS 13 FEET. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CRESTING AT APPX 13.5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KATY AND KABR THIS
MORNING BEFORE EXITING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING NEAR KPIR AND KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
738 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR CODINGTON..DEUEL AND HAMLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ROADS AND ANY PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS WEST RIVER AS ALL PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALREADY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KATY AND KABR THIS
MORNING BEFORE EXITING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING NEAR KPIR AND KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
00Z AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE SWODY1 BRINGS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
THE LOCAL RNK WRF ARW KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER THREAT
NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HINDER COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HELD ON TO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE
AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
15Z/11AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND
WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM LAST WEEK SO FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
732 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE
AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
15Z/11AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND
WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THESE
COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM LAST WEEK SO FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A BAND OF STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRUSH NORTHEAST
IOWA AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS
BAND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THE BAND MOVING THROUGH OUR 5 WESTERN
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES
UP TO 50 PERCENT FROM 04.13Z TO 04.16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 04.13 AND 04.17Z. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SPRINKLE AT KRST
BETWEEN 04.16Z AND 04.20Z...SO KEPT THE VCSH IN THE TAF. FURTHER
EAST...IT WILL BE JUST TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SO KEPT THE
KLSE TAF DRY.
CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 9 TO 13K IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWER ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 5 TO
10K FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 04.13 AND 04.17Z. HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SPRINKLE AT KRST
BETWEEN 04.16Z AND 04.20Z...SO KEPT THE VCSH IN THE TAF. FURTHER
EAST...IT WILL BE JUST TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SO KEPT THE
KLSE TAF DRY.
CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 9 TO 13K IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWER ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 5 TO
10K FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
406 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROUNDING THE TOP OF A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS AXIS
STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEST OF THIS
AXIS...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS PREVAIL. EAST OF THIS
LINE...TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS COOLER...DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE 40S AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION.
MOISTURE OUT THERE APPEARS SHALLOW AND THE LAYER ABOVE THIS WAS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER WITH WESTERLY FLOW. DRY LINE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION/T-STORMS.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LATEST RAP SHOWS WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SPREADING EAST WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MEANWHILE WARM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. WIND
SPEEDS AND RH VALUES ACROSS SOUTH PARK...FIREWEATHER ZONE
241...MET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA A FEW HOURS AGO. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD AGAIN SEE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT.
NAM SYNTHETIC IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A THICK MTN
WAVE CLOUD FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER TONIGHT. SEE NO
REASON TO DOUBT THIS WITH THE LONG FETCH OF HIGH ALTITUDE WATER
VAPOR STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH A THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD HANGING OVERHEAD. MODELS...NOTABLY
THE RAP...SHOWS THE SFC TROUGH BACKING UP THE SOUTH PLATTE
VALLEY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS GREELEY AND PLATTEVILLE BY MID-
MORNING. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH LOW 40S DEWPTS AND LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS WEAK SURGE. NAM SHOWS THE MTN WAVE
CLOUD MOVING NORTH UP INTO WYOMING AROUND MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO BE 1-3 DEG
C LOWER THAN THOSE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
THE FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROF INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH ONE
MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP OVER COLORADO ON LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST. THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-15KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
RECENT WINDS AT KDEN HAVE BEEN FROM A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
NOT SURE WE`LL SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT DIA...EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE VERY CLOSE BY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO DRAINAGE AT 7-12KTS
AS ANOTHER THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD FORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ON
MONDAY...LOOK FOR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10KTS IN THE MORNING
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS UPDATE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. JUST MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD
COVER GRIDS ACROSS THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT EVEN BE
TOO HIGH FOR SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW ZONES. LIFT WILL
BE GOOD AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL
LIFT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE
OCCURRING AT A TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME
SPOTS (MAINLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT)...WILL KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST. RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 SINCE THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ AS OF 18Z SHOULD SLIDE E-SE
TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO...WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO THE NYC METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 1930Z-2200Z. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE...AND STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KT IF A STRONGER
CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOWER TO THE NORTH/EAST AT
KSWF/KBDR/KGON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY THERE.
W FLOW GUSTING AT OR JUST OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS/KSWF...AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BACK NW THIS
EVENING AFTER COLD FROPA...REMAINING LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS ONLY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT...COULD BE ON TOP OF 310
MAGNETIC UNTIL LATE DAY.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KT EVERYWHERE...AND AROUND 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS UPDATE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. JUST MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...TRICKY TO DEPICT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD
COVER GRIDS ACROSS THE AREA AS GENERALLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR POPS...A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...AND AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT ANY LOCATION AT ANY
POINT IN TIME TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THEREFORE HAVE THE ENTIRE
AREA AT HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT EVEN BE
TOO HIGH FOR SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW ZONES. LIFT WILL
BE GOOD AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...PVA FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE OVERALL
LIFT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SHORT WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THIS LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW...BUT SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT WILL BE
OCCURRING AT A TIME WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...AND ALMOST STRONGLY UNSTABLE FOR SOME
SPOTS (MAINLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT)...WILL KEEP IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST. RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 SINCE THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...APPARENTLY DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND A MEAN OF AROUND 30KT
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 50MPH. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING PUSHING ON TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN KEEP THE MENTION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
TONIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH A SHOT OF CAA WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY WITH THE HIGH BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINATING FEATURE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE E FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY-TUESDAY. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AROUND DEPARTING CUTOFF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLOUDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY...AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SO SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SW TO
NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER OVER HOW QUICKLY TO BRING IN ANY
RAIN ON THURSDAY - FIGURE THAT SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. SO HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCE POPS TO
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE SW 2/3 OF THE CWA. DOES
APPEAR SOLID AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT -
SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM FRONT
STAYING TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD BE A GREY
DAMP/POSSIBLY WET DAY - WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE A
MITIGATING FACTOR - PLUS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP AND E LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS IDEA OF WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT ENDED UP DELAYING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THEN. NOTING IN WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY...PLUS FORECAST
SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY -
HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN BOTH PERIODS TO GO WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE A FEELING THAT IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY END UP STRUGGLING TO GET
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 50S ON FRIDAY - FOR NOW WENT MAINLY IN THE
60S. FOR NOW GOING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY (WITH CAVEAT FOR FRIDAY AS STATED ABOVE)...THEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY THIS EVENING. CU ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
CT...AND IT APPEARS A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS BY ABOUT 18Z...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF TEMPO
MVFR CONDS...BUT IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KT IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS NOW LOOK LOWER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
THERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT.
W FLOW GUSTING AT OR JUST OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BACK NW THIS EVENING AFTER COLD
FROPA...REMAINING LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REMAINING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR. NW WINDS G25KT...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN ANY RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MINIMAL MIXING ON THE
WATERS WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE GUSTS FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS AND ACROSS THE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. OVERALL...EXPECTING GUSTS
TO 25 KT EVERYWHERE...AND AROUND 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. FORECAST
KEEPS ALL WATERS THEN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. KCLX REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND AT 5-10 KT.
THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
1. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 9 PM...INITIALIZING WITH
THE 04/22Z OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE.
2. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
3. LOWERED WIND SPEEDS TO CALM WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONGOING FORECASTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN ON
TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED S/SW OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A SYNOPTIC DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW...PINNING THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON...AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL LIKELY
PUSH TO THE BEACHES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER N/NE SC WEDNESDAY...AND THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. THUS...THE SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP EARLIER AND WILL PUSH INLAND. THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON AREA BEACHES TO THE 70S AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION...HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F WILL STILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70F ON
THE BEACHES WILL BE COMMON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND...PUSHING A
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE SLOWED IF DEEP LAYER RIDGING PERSISTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EVEN SO...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 18Z
MODEL AND SHORT TERM RAP MODEL DATA. EXPECT PEAK WINDS OF 10-15
KT...EXCEPT 15 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED S/SW OF THE
WATERS. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO BACK TOWARD THE SW BOTH AFTERNOON. ALSO...04/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT A MODEST NOCTURNAL SURGE OF SW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH
NIGHT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING MID
TO LATE WEEK. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SHOWER/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR HANCOCK/WORTH/CERRO GORDO COUNTIES. RECENT REPORT OF MIXTURE
IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES./REV
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND
EXPAND IN CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NE AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SE. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HRRR AND CONSSHORT AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATE GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING IN CENTRAL CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO KEPT PRECIP MENTION SCATTERED/ISOLATED. SYSTEM
WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE PUSHES IN. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DECENT WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE WESTERN TROF THAT
EVENTUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION GETTING
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.
SOME LINGERING PCPN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EXITING FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION ARRIVES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY MAY CREATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR AND WINDS TO REMAIN EASTERLY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHERN SITES WILL SEE LITTLE EXCEPT SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z MON. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
507 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TROUGH THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL MORE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY THE LATEST RADAR LOOP.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GRADIENT BETWEEN MAXES/MINS ON THE
THETA E ANALYSIS. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWED SOME
STRIKES ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION SOUTH OF THE BANGOR AREA OVER
THE LAST HR(20Z), BUT SINCE THEN ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. THE
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY W/ELEVATED CAPES IN THIS REGION. KEPT THE MENTION OF
TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MAINE COAST THIS EVENING
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY. AREA OF THUNDER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO WILL PUT IN
AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. FOR POPS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12... GFS40...SREF AND
ECMWF. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GENERATED FROM BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL BASED ON
LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE SUPPER
BLEND. QPF GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM12... GFS40 AND
ECMWF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LLVL MOISTURE LEFT OVR FROM THE DEPARTING ERN MARITIMES SFC/UPPER
LVL LOW PRES SYS WILL REMAIN MSLY IN THE FORM OF CLDNSS OVR THE N
PTN OF THE FA...WITH ANY EVE SHWRS MSLY OVR THE NW. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH WRLY DOWNSLOPE FOR THE S HLF OF THE FA FOR PARTIAL CLRG
LATE MON NGT.
ANY CLRG FOR SRN PTNS OF THE FA WILL BE SHORT LIVED GOING INTO TUE
AS AN E...W UPPER TROF N OF OUR REGION SWINGS SWRD INTO THE FA BY
TUE AFTN...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TO MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND CAUSING SCT SHWRS BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE N...WHICH WILL WORK
SWRD INTO SRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. OVERALL...BASIN WIDE 6
HRLY QPFS WILL BE LGT...LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT LCLZD RNFL OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE AFTN...SPCLY CNTRL AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN.
ONCE THIS UPPER TROF PIVOTS SE OF THE REGION TUE EVE...MORE
GENERAL CLRG SHOULD OCCUR FOR ALL OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT...
WITH WED LOOKING MUCH DRIER...WITH THE ONLY SLGT CHC OF AFTN SHWRS
OVR ERN PTNS OF THE REGION AS A VERY WEAK S/WV ALF FROM CNTRL QB
MOVES ESE OVR NRN/ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVGS FOR THIS TM OF SPRING
DUE TO MORE CLD AND SHWR CVRG COMPARED TO WED...WHICH SHOULD SEE
HI TEMPS RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OVRNGT LOWS BOTH MON
NGT AND TUE NGT WILL MSLY BE ABV FZG FOR ALL OF THE REGION DUE TO
CLD CVR AND SFC DWPTS FCST TO BE AOA FZG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID DAY
FRIDAY. A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD... WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW COAST OF MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. BY SAT EVNG THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF MOVE THE COLD FRONT EAST OF MAINE AND BUILDS
HIGHER PRESSURE INTO WRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES A NEW LOW INTO THE
SW COAST...SLOWING THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...KEEPING IT ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE INTO SUN MRNG. THE GFS MOVES THE NEW LOW THROUGH
MAINE...AND BEGINS TO BUILD HIGHER PRESSURE...THE ECMWF MOVES A
NEW LOW INTO NRN NY...SHIFTS THE HIGH TO THE EAST...AND MOVES A
WARM FRONT INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MAINE SUN EVNG...WITH A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING N/S FROM WEST OF JAMES BAY TO ERN TX...WITH
SEVERAL MINOR LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO
NRN NH/WRN ME BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS TO THE SE
COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS MOVES THE NEW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ERN NH/WRN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS MAINE.
SO THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID PORTIONS OF
THE EXTENDED...THEN THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFER...GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE MID POINT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND AND 30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR TONIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS...AND ATTMS VSBYS WITH BKN-OVC SC
CLD CVR AND OCNL SHWRS CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES MON
NGT THRU TUE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUE NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN SHOULD CONT WED THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE SREF AND THE GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS. FOR WAVES: CURRENT WNA/4 WIND TOO STRONG IN GULF OF MAINE
SO HAVE USED THE SWAN/NAM TO POPULATE GRIDS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM
GENERATED IN SOUTHERLY FETCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH 3 FEET/8
SECONDS... HOWEVER EXPECT THIS GROUP TO STAY BELOW SCA. FETCH
DIRECTION SHIFTS OFF-SHORE EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH LIMITED FETCH
DISTANCE WAVE HEIGHTS CLOSE TO COAST MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS LOOK TO BE NEEDED FOR OUR MZS...WITH WINDS
MSLY BLO 15 KTS...AND WVS MSLY BLO 3 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS050-051
AND 2 FT OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052. USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND
FOR WINDS AND WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
Frontal boundary remains stalled along I-70 corridor. So main
forecast issues in the short term are the winds and low temps for
tonight. East winds to prevail north of front, while south winds to
expected over southern MO and far southern IL. Some mid and high
clouds north of front, but no precipitation expected as low and mid
levels remain rather dry. Towards daybreak frontal boundary will
begin to slowly move to the north as a warm front. As for low temps,
will range from the upper 40s far north to the upper 50s over
central and southern MO. Could see a pocket of colder temps over
eastern Ozarks, so lowered temps a bit there.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
The main issue for at least the next several days will be the
location of the east-west quasi-stationary front and resultant
impact on temperatures. Guidance is good agreement moving the
boundary northward on Monday morning to around a Moberly-Matoon
line by early afternoon. While there will be a few more clouds
around on Monday, the character of the air mass and low level flow
regime is not expected to change. Thus it appears highs in the 80s
to lower 90s will be the norm within the warm sector, and in the
70s to the north of the front. The front then sags south again on
Monday night as surface high pressure builds southeastward from
the Great Lakes region. This southward position doesn`t appear to
last long however as the front is forecast to retreat northward
again on Tuesday, draped across northern MO into central IL by
late afternoon and exiting the CWA by late evening. This northward
retreat is in response to falling pressures across the Plains and
the movement of an initial low pressure wave into eastern Nebraska.
The entire region will be well within the warm sector on Wednesday
with highs area-wide in the 80s. The models have been overforecasting
the surface dew points recently and this trend will persist for the
next several days as high pressure in the northern Gulf is
inhibiting southerly return flow. The combination of warm temps
aloft and limited low level moisture will result in an air mass
capped to surface-based convection through Wednesday. I think
Wednesday night will remain quiet and mild with a general increase
in clouds.
Things begin to change on Thursday with shower and thunderstorm
chances ramping up, especially Thursday night into Friday. We should
see a more robust return of low level moisture as the Gulf opens
up, and the western U.S. upper trof ejects northeastward across
the Rockies and Plains into the upper MS valley sending a cold
front into the area Thursday night. This front will temporarily
stall across portions of southern MO and southern IL late Friday
into Friday night, before lifting back northward on Saturday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 4 2014
VFR through the period with occasional mid and high clouds. The
primary forecast issue is the prevailing wind direction because a
stalled frontal boundary will continue to waver across the region
over the next few days. Winds will be easterly on the north side
of the front, lgt/var along the front, and southerly to
southwesterly on the south side of the front. Precipitation is
very unlikely due to strong capping and lack of moisture.
Local WRF and RAP forecasts in BUFKIT both show strong southwest
winds above KCOU tonight at around 1000 ft during a time when
surface winds should be from the south. Local WRF and RAP models
also show fairly strong winds above KUIN at around 1000 ft, but
the winds are more unidirectional with height through that layer
compared to winds at KCOU. LLWS has been added to the TAFs for
KCOU and KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR through the period with occasional mid and
high clouds. The prevailing wind direction will depend on the
location of a quasistationary frontal boundary (easterly winds on
the north side of the front and south to southwest winds on the
south side of the front).
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
128 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS
SPAWNED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD THIS
MORNING. THE RAP SHOWS THIS FORCING MECHANISM MOVING QUICKLY EAST
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THE RAP AND NAM GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS PINE RIDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS DRY AS NEITHER
MODEL IS GENERATING AND QPF IN THAT AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY SUPPORTING THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT THE NAM AND ECM ONLY SHOW 85 PERCENT RH
IN THE 500M AGL LEVEL VS THE GFS AROUND 98 PERCENT. THE BEST
APPROACH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL DATA. A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON TIME ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FROM A LOW IN S CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW IN KANSAS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL MIX MID AND UPPER TEENS 850 MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LL JET TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT SOME BUILDING SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND HAVE CONCERNS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT DEVELOP
THIS FAR SOUTH...AWAY FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE. MILD LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INITIATE ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW...SO POPS CONFINED TO THE
NW ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW STRENGTHEN OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NE ACROSS NEB. TIMING STILL OFF A LITTLE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GEM HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT INTO SW AND S CENTRAL NEB. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THE EC DRAWS DOWN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
FAR NW NEB...COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY A MIX. CURRENT THOUGH IS
THE TEMPS TO NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH INTO THE MID 30S FOR ANY MIX AT
THIS POINT AND NO MENTION OF SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S ON WED AND 50S AND 60S
FOR THURS.
BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM IS EAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND AND A WARM UP IS EXPECTED. AFTER 60S
ON FRIDAY...MORE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. A LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONAL TO NW WEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE PACIFIC AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS...WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTER AIR WEST INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AS MOISTURE POOLS TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SCATTERED DECK
AT 1000FT AT KLBF TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS. MODELS
ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS...SO
WASN/T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BROKEN OR OVERCAST CEILING AT
THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON POPS BASED ON HRRR/RAP OUTPUT. ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HERE WILL
LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW. WEATHER CAMERAS FROM RAY...PORTAL AND CARPIO
INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOK WILL BE OVER THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL...ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS YOU MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO THE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY AREAS...PREVIOUS
INSOLATION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SO WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. WITH
THE BACK EDGE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...THINK 1 TO 2
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE THE EXTENT TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND
CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS
NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE
INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AFTER 06 UTC.
FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH
DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4
INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN
PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KMOT WILL REMAIN IN MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS
WITH RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE 18 UTC RAP/HRRR WHOSE PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT AND TYPE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 20 UTC...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM ESTEVAN AND
CROSBY THROUGH TIOGA. AS LIFTING INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND AIDED BY DECREASING INSOLATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 32-35 F RANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND POINTS
NORTH...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE
INCHES ACROSS DIVIDE COUNTY WHICH THE RAP HAS CONSISTENTLY
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS IN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
NOW...HAVE AN SPS OUT TO COVER THE THREAT AND WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY SHOULD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AFTER 06 UTC.
FOR MONDAY...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE FORECAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES CRESTING
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY- EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH
DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1 1/4
INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
RENEWED RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
BY FRIDAY A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS IN
PLACE...AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
LOWER THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KMOT WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS
AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RADAR IMAGE FROM KMBX (MINOT...ND) IS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS SOURIS RIVER BASIN...HOWEVER
GROUND TRUTH AS FAR AS PRECIP REPORTS IS FURTHER WEST...ROUGHLY
ALONG A WILLISTON TO ESTEVAN (SASK) LINE. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH A
RUC/NAM SOLUTION...PRIMARILY USING RUC AS GUIDANCE THROUGH 09Z
THEN TRENDING TOWARD NAM FOR MONDAY.
TONIGHT...A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ND...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
AND INTO W CNTRL MN TONIGHT. WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H700 FG
FORCING WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AS THE VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CIGS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 4K FT IN
PORTIONS OF NW ND...GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO
THE SFC. OVERALL...HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR A BIT BULLISH ON
MOISTURE AND EXPECTING ONLY TEN TO TWENTY HUNDREDTHS OVER DVL
BASIN. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THIS REGION WITH LIKELIES IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY...TAPERING OFF TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AS
ACTIVITY GETS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING. BY 12Z...NAM SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
MAJORITY OF AREA AND DRYING THINGS UP SHORTLY AFT 12Z.
AGAIN...HAVE USED RUC AS GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY POPS THROUGH 09Z WITH
NAM FOR THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...THEN DRY ON MONDAY. ONE CAVEAT...RUC
DOES HOLD ON TO SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS AREA (MORE IN LINE WITH NAM).
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S AND DID MENTION SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IF THERE IS A CHANGE OVER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF AREA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INCREASED SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMP TO CLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AND SW FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING AND
EJECTING OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER WRN DAKOTAS TUE MORNING. SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN
DAKOTAS. 12Z GFS SHOWING INCREASING H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO CNTRL
DAKOTAS...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND ONE INCH BY 18Z. GFS ALSO
SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORMING MID DAY TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELIES IN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...WITH NAM FOCUSING ON DVL BASIN...WHICH IS
WHERE I WILL LIMIT LIKELIES FOR TUE AFTN. CURRENT QPF VALUES
APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND...BUT PLENTY
OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS.
WED...INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO EAST DURING DAY WED...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY UP...HOWEVER MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF DRYING
OUT THE DVL LAKE BASIN...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES RATHER BULLISH
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND EVEN THE NAM SHOWS SOME POPS OVER THE
AREA. INHERITED CHANCE POPS THEREFORE SEEMS
REASONABLE...SUPPORTED BY CONSALL..AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO TRY AND TIME CLEARING FOR WED AFTN.
WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT DEPICTED BY ALL
THE MODELS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES
APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS PROBABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS COVER
AND ACTUAL TIMING OF SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAINLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE RAINFALL...BUT
THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...BELOW 12 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES.
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY
GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO
OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON
NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
147 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS OF 1845 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. BASED UPON DUAL POL
SIGNATURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MOSTLY RAIN APPEARS TO BE
FALLING FROM PLENTYWOOD...TO GLASGOW AND SOUTH WITH SNOW TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC RAP/HRRR. THUS WILL FOLLOW
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE BAND
PROPAGATES INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 35-40F RANGE. THUS...EXPECT RAIN TO MIX
WITH SNOW OR BECOME ALL SNOW AT TIMES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN HOW
WELL SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES FOLLOWING THE RAP SNOWFALL FORECAST.
ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO DESCRIBE THE
THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2...WHERE THE INCOMING 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE 06 UTC SUITE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND AFTERNOON WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
POPS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES FROM THE DICKINSON AREA...THROUGH MORTON COUNTY...INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF GRASSY AREAS SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THERE...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE 06Z NAM
WHICH INDICATES MORE QPF THIS MORNING. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO
THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FARTHER UPSTREAM YET
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PEEL
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...MONITORING THE NARROW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ON AMOUNTS VIA SURFACE REPORTS OR WEB CAMS...BUT
AMOUNTS MAY BE FALLING IN BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED DATA POINTS.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH LIFT THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF DECENT QPF WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MENTIONING SNOW/RAIN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
LATER TODAY...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...WEAK INSTABILITY PUSHES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BORDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COAL ESE AROUND A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. CONSENSUS
QPF AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM NOW SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 0.33 TO 1 INCH...LESS BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. RENEWED
RISES ON AREAS RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE...THESE TYPE OF AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS AND INSTABILITY...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KMOT WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS
AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
NO CHANGES TO PUBLISHED GRIDS AT THIS TIME. 18Z DISCUSSION
INCLUDED UPDATED AVIATION AND HYDRO SECTIONS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
LATEST RUC AND NAM FOCUSING ON A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. WILL USE NAM
GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AND THEN NAM GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z.
SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY ENDING BY MID MORNING MONDAY. CURRENT
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MINIMAL GROUND TRUTH...MAINLY MID LEVEL DECK. THE NAM HAS DRIED THAT
OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS THESE INITIAL (WEAK)
ECHOES DRIFT EAST...AND WILL SPEED THINGS UP AS NECESSARY WITH 18Z
UPDATE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MOVING INTO SW MN ATTM. OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO ERN ND SO UPPED SKY COVER SOME FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM DICKINSON ND AREA TO SOUTH OF BISMARCK TO
ABERDEEN SD MOVING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. FARTHER SOUTH ACTUALLY A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD EAST OF PIERRE TOWARD HURON. THIS
FORCING WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR
NE 1/2 OF FCST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF CANDO-GRAND FORKS-PARK
RAPIDS LINE. EXPECT GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA.
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ND TODAY AND THRU ERN
ND/NW MN TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BUT SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND WITH SHOWERS ON
RADARS TO OUR WEST WENT ALONG WITH WFO BIS AND INCREASED POPS IN
NE ND INTO THE CNTRL RRV TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANY PRECIP EXIT THE MN FCST AREA EARLY...BUT
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP IN FAR WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF NEXT LARGER SYSTEM. THEN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DAYTIME TUESDAY AS 850-700
MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE 500 MB TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONSISTENCY THIS PERIOD CONTINUES WITH
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS AS IT RELATES TO THE LARGE SCALE. QUESTIONS
ABOUND REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA MAY BLOCK THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REDUCING OVERALL QPF. ECMWF AND NAM12/DGEX SUGGEST
SAID CONVECTION BRUSHING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH AND WEST WITH INSTABILITY AFT 00Z THU.
GEM-NH...ECMWF AND DGEX FARTHER SOUTHEAST SUGGEST TSRA RISK FOR OUR
AREA IS PRETTY LOW. BEST TIMING WOULD BE IN THE 12Z WED - 06Z THU
AND SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGH APPROX FSD-DLH LINE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
850-500 DIV Q...700 FRONTOGEN AND COUPLED JET SUPPLYING THE LIFT FOR
-RASH/-RA OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. QUESTION AGAIN IS HOW MUCH PLAINS
CONVECTION INTERFERES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT QPF.
ON FRIDAY LOW WRAPS UP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TAKING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH IT. COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY YIELD TO SOME
-RASH LATE FRIDAY. THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
REGION. THUS UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WEATHER IS SUGGESTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
MAINLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE RAINFALL...BUT
THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST...BELOW 12 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RED CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING STAGES.
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A BROAD FLAT CREST HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED. A VERY
GRADUAL RECESSION IN STAGES IS FORECAST FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO
OSLO...WITH SOME GRADUAL RISES ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM DRAYTON
NORTHWARD TO PEMBINA BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TIMBER LAKE TO
HAYTI...GIVEN EXPECTED DURATION OF CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING LOW
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. DID NUDGE THE SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST ZONES UP A FEW DEGREES AS THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATING THIS MORNING
TO SCALE BACK POPS AND WIND DOWN THE POPS/WX MENTION SOONER...AND
ELIMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON POPS/WX MENTION ALTOGETHER...AS IT
APPEARS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AND
PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THIS CWA LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES ARE
OUT.
HYDROLOGY...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ONGOING UPSTREAM WATER
RELEASES...THE JAMES RIVER IS JUST ABOUT TO HIT FLOOD
STAGE...WHICH IS 13 FEET. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CRESTING AT APPX 13.5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COLDER AIR...A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WAS OBSERVED AT ABR. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATES IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z EC HANDLED THIS SITUATION THE
BEST...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM WAY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. WITH COOL EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...IT
APPEARS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION WITH THESE COMING WAVES OF ENERGY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER SD/NE BRINGING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TO THE PLAINS
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. THEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SAT EVEN AS
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF TO THE WEST BEGINS TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEANS TSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. GOOD MIXING ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FRIDAY WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT. ALSO...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. THE
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
132 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN
THE EAST. RUC13 AND NAM12 SHOWED INCREASE IN WINDS 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDED
ENHANCE FIRE STATEMENT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
00Z AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE SWODY1 BRINGS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
THE LOCAL RNK WRF ARW KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER THREAT
NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HINDER COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HELD ON TO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE AIRPORTS
IS VERY LOW.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND
SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT SUNDAY...
IN COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE EXPANDED THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE
AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 30 MPH. WESTERN COUNTIES RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM LAST WEEK AND FUEL LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1228 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM VIRGINIA TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN
THE EAST. RUC13 AND NAM12 SHOWED INCREASE IN WINDS 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDED
ENHANCE FIRE STATEMENT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 952 AM EDT...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
00Z AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE SWODY1 BRINGS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
THE LOCAL RNK WRF ARW KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER THREAT
NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HINDER COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HELD ON TO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN
EXACT ALIGNMENT OF WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. RAP GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION AFTER 2PM AS FAR NORTHERN AS GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS WERE POINTING MORE TOWARD TAZEWELL AND SMYTH
COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED.
BUFKIT SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE
HIGH WHICH WILL WEDGE INTO VIRGINIA...PERHAPS SENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW VA. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY RT 460 AND POINTS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SREF
MEMBERS ARE SENDING PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE OP GFS SEEMS TO
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A SPURIOUS VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AT 0Z TUES. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. INSTABILITY
DEFINITELY EXISTS ON MONDAY...AND OF COURSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...GOOD LLVL SHEAR IS ALSO A FACTOR. THE MISSING
INGREDIENT IN THE STEW IS FORCING...AS THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE PARCELS. PERHAPS A CLEARER SKY AND MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THAT EXTRA NUDGE NECESSARY.
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM RT 460 AND NORTH MONDAY.
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SW
VA COULD KEEP LYH/ROA COOLER THAN BLF/JFZ/MKJ CORRIDOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY. THE LONG
STANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS NOW INDICATING
THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST ONE DAY SLOWER TO EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE BEST
SUPPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY NORTHWARD...OR MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. HAVE TAILORED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
THU STILL LIKES A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION. FOR FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH FRI...BUT BY SAT LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE WV
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH SW VA/NW NC. THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
IN ORDER FOR WESTERN AREAS AS INDICATED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS FOR NEXT SAT.
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT COOLING TREND FOR WED THAT APPEARS CONTRARY
TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN APPEARS
EVIDENT UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE
WARMING ALOFT. AGAIN...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS KENTUCKY
INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
SHOWERS IN THE BCB/BLF/LWB AND ROA TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TODAY BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM AT THESE
AIRPORTS IS VERY LOW.
WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING ONCE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...AROUND
15Z/11AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. IMPULSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...HAVE EXPANDED THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE
AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AND WIND WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 30 MPH. WESTERN COUNTIES RECIEVE MORE RAINFALL FROM THE
STORM SYSTEM LAST WEEK AND FUEL LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
A BAND OF STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRUSH NORTHEAST
IOWA AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS
BAND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THE BAND MOVING THROUGH OUR 5 WESTERN
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES
UP TO 50 PERCENT FROM 04.13Z TO 04.16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...AND MORE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...A 100 KT JET STREAK NEAR 250MB EXTENDED FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TO TRAVERSE CITY MI PER RAP ANALYSIS. THIS JET STREAK WAS
AIDING IN A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD TO LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE FORECAST AREA
EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TWO BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING
FROM STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES. 925MB
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 10-15C AT 00Z AT BIS...ABR AND
MPX...HELPING TO PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ALONG
WITH THE DRY AIR...COOLER AIR WAS ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS AT BIS AND ABR FELL
5-6C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FULLY OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...PUSHED AHEAD BY THE DEEP TROUGH COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STAYING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THIS FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
GENERALITY.
1. THIS MORNING WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS...EVEN JUST BETWEEN THE 03.18Z AND
04.00Z NAM. AS A RESULT...THE 04.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN
IA...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING. 04.06Z RAP AND 04.04Z
HRRR...WHICH ARE MIMICKING NICELY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE
DAKOTAS...ALSO ARE DRIER. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND
REALLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2. 04.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO TRACK OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. THERE
WERE INDICATIONS IN PAST RUNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
BAND...BUT THE 04.00Z ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER UPPER MI...WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO COUNTERACT RAIN FALLING
TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN 18Z 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO 7-10C AT 18Z YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 5 IF NOT 10 DEGREES COOLER...COOLEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH
MOST CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF MID CLOUDS COMING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST
925MB WIND SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 LATE TONIGHT
LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. ONLY THE
04.00Z NAM LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER IN FACT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 925MB READINGS CLIMBING TO 6-8C AT 18Z MONDAY AND 8-
10C AT 18Z TUESDAY. WITH SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RELATIVELY CHILLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS THERE
MAY DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A BIG PORTION OF A
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THIS SLOWING
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE PORTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HIGHLIGHTS...
1. ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CAPE ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GET ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN MCS.
SHOULD AN MCS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
04.00Z NAM OF AN MCS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...FELT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN.
2. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...04.00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LOT OF
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS ALSO NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED BELOW A STRONG CAP...SO PERHAPS AFTER SOME MORNING STORMS WE
END UP WITH A BUNCH OF DRIZZLE. THIS IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH
ALSO MEANS A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE
04.00Z GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH THE 04.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING WARM
AND HUMID AS WELL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
4. THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE MESSY...ESPECIALLY FORECASTING THE HIGH
TEMP. MODELS AGREE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH
NORMALLY SUGGESTS A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE 04.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE ALL POINTING TO A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. 04.00Z ECMWF HAS CUT
HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES AS A RESULT. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A CONSENSUS
HIGH IN THE 70S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHERE WE HAVE BEEN.
5. POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TREND OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND THAT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THURSDAY LIMITING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...VERY UNCLEAR ON HOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT.
WOULDNT DOUBT THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED BY STORMS...AND THUS
HAVE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES GOING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE CONCERN WEST OF THE AREA. MANY DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SHOWERS
ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY TOO.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR SATURDAY TO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS AT MID-DAY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MID CLOUD IN THE AREA.
THIS GENERAL AREA OF FORCING...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THIS CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
ROUND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN/WI
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. TAF
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN THESE BANDS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT MORE MID CLOUD AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH
STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF LOCATIONS. OTHER
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SWITCHING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST.
WHILE SPEEDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT
MAY BE OF INTEREST TO SOME AIRCRAFT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOW AND ALL OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERSHED. MOST OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE FALLING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI...
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH WABASHA AND ALMA ON
MONDAY...AND ON TUESDAY FOR WINONA TO LA CROSSE. CRESTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM GENOA THROUGH GUTTENBERG. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MINOR...THOUGH WINONA COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO LARGE
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN COULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE CREST LEVEL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW/AJ